Infrared Studies of the Variability and Mass Loss of Dusty Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargent, Benjamin; Groenewegen, M. A. T.

2018-01-01

The asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase is one of the last phases of a star's life. AGB stars lose mass in an outflow in which dust condenses and is pushed away from the star. Extreme AGB stars are so named because their very red colors suggest very large amounts of dust, which in turn suggests extremely high mass loss rates. AGB stars also vary in brightness, and studies show that extreme AGB stars tend to have longer periods than other AGB stars and are more likely to be fundamental mode pulsators than other AGB stars. Extreme AGB stars are difficult to study, as their colors are so red due to their copious amounts of circumstellar dust that they are often not detected at optical wavelengths. Therefore, they must be observed at infrared wavelengths to explore their variability. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope, my team and I have observed a sample of extreme AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) over Cycles 9 through 12 during the Warm Spitzer mission. For each cycle, we typically observed a set of extreme AGB stars at both 3.6 and 4.5 microns wavelength approximately monthly for most of a year. These observations reveal a wide range of variability properties. I present results from our analysis of the data obtained from these Spitzer variability programs, including light curve analyses and comparison to period-luminosity diagrams. Funding is acknowledged from JPL RSA # 1561703.

The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Hoskins, B. J.; Scaife, A. A.

2016-11-01

The daily relationship of electricity and gas demand with temperature in Great Britain is analysed from 1975 to 2013 and 1996 to 2013 respectively. The annual mean and annual cycle amplitude of electricity demand exhibit low frequency variability. This low frequency variability is thought to be predominantly driven by socio-economic changes rather than temperature variation. Once this variability is removed, both daily electricity and gas demand have a strong anti-correlation with temperature (r elec = -0.90 , r gas = -0.94). However these correlations are inflated by the changing demand-temperature relationship during spring and autumn. Once the annual cycles of temperature and demand are removed, the correlations are {r}{{elec}}=-0.60 and {r}{{gas}}=-0.83. Winter then has the strongest demand-temperature relationship, during which a 1 °C reduction in daily temperature typically gives a ˜1% increase in daily electricity demand and a 3%-4% increase in gas demand. Extreme demand periods are assessed using detrended daily temperature observations from 1772. The 1 in 20 year peak day electricity and gas demand estimates are, respectively, 15% (range 14%-16%) and 46% (range 44%-49%) above their average winter day demand during the last decade. The risk of demand exceeding recent extreme events, such as during the winter of 2009/2010, is also quantified.

Melt Inclusions Record Extreme Compositional Variability in Primitive Magmas at Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamenetsky, V. S.; Norman, M. D.; Garcia, M. O.

2002-12-01

Melt inclusions carry potentially unique information about magmatic processes and the compositional evolution of erupted lavas. Major element compositions of olivine-hosted melt inclusions in submarine tholeiitic picrites from the southwest rift zone of Mauna Loa volcano have been studied to examine the compositional variability of primitive magmas feeding the world's largest volcano. Approximately 600 naturally quenched inclusions were examined from 8 samples with 3-25 vol% olivine phenocrysts and 9-22 wt% MgO. Olivine compositions ranged from Fo91-Fo82. The inclusions show a continuous variation in FeO contents from near-magmatic values (9 to 11 wt%) in the most evolved olivines to extremely low values (3.5 to 7.0 wt%) in the most primitive olivines. This appears to reflect a complex magmatic history for these crystals involving extensive re-equlibration of melts trapped by early formed phenocrysts with their host olivine. Extreme compositional variability also characterizes incompatible elements that would not be affected by equilibration with the host olivine. Inclusions trapped in relatively primitive olivines (Fo88-91) show a large range of K2O contents (0.1 to 2.1 wt%), whereas inclusions in more evolved olivines converge on whole rock compositions with 0.3 to 0.4 wt% K2O. Similarly, TiO2/K2O, Na2O/K2O, and K2O/P2O5 ratios of inclusions in primitive olivines span a much larger range than do inclusions hosted by more evolved olivines, with TiO2/K2O ratios extending from enriched to depleted compositions (1.2 to 24.7) in primitive olivines, and converging on whole rock compositions (TiO2/K2O = 6-9) in more evolved host olivine. This points toward extreme compositional variability in melts feeding Mauna Loa, and effective mixing of these melt parcels in the shallower summit reservoir to produce the restricted range of whole rock compositions sampled by erupted lavas. Whole rock compositions, therefore provide an integrated view of melting and high-level mixing processes, whereas melt inclusions provide more detailed information about source characteristics.

Association of lower extremity range of motion and muscle strength with physical performance of community-dwelling older women.

PubMed

Jung, Hungu; Yamasaki, Masahiro

2016-12-08

Reduced lower extremity range of motion (ROM) and muscle strength are related to functional disability in older adults who cannot perform one or more activities of daily living (ADL) independently. The purpose of this study was to determine which factors of seven lower extremity ROMs and two muscle strengths play dominant roles in the physical performance of community-dwelling older women. Ninety-five community-dwelling older women (mean age ± SD, 70.7 ± 4.7 years; age range, 65-83 years) were enrolled in this study. Seven lower extremity ROMs (hip flexion, hip extension, knee flexion, internal and external hip rotation, ankle dorsiflexion, and ankle plantar flexion) and two muscle strengths (knee extension and flexion) were measured. Physical performance tests, including functional reach test (FRT), 5 m gait test, four square step test (FSST), timed up and go test (TUGT), and five times sit-to-stand test (FTSST) were performed. Stepwise regression models for each of the physical performance tests revealed that hip extension ROM and knee flexion strength were important explanatory variables for FRT, FSST, and FTSST. Furthermore, ankle plantar flexion ROM and knee extension strength were significant explanatory variables for the 5 m gait test and TUGT. However, ankle dorsiflexion ROM was a significant explanatory variable for FRT alone. The amount of variance on stepwise multiple regression for the five physical performance tests ranged from 25 (FSST) to 47% (TUGT). Hip extension, ankle dorsiflexion, and ankle plantar flexion ROMs, as well as knee extension and flexion strengths may play primary roles in the physical performance of community-dwelling older women. Further studies should assess whether specific intervention programs targeting older women may achieve improvements in lower extremity ROM and muscle strength, and thereby play an important role in the prevention of dependence on daily activities and loss of physical function, particularly focusing on hip extension, ankle dorsiflexion, and ankle plantar flexion ROMs as well as knee extension and flexion strength.

Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.

2015-12-11

Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantiallymore » from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.« less

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Huges, Lee

2014-01-01

• Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

Patterns of change in high frequency precipitation variability over North America.

PubMed

Roque-Malo, Susana; Kumar, Praveen

2017-09-18

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data, we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. Further, these changes are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Existence of localized clusters with opposing trend to that of broader geographic variation illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns over the entire North American continent have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Extreme Quiescent Variability of the Transient Neutron Star Low-mass X-ray Binary EXO 1745-248 in Terzan 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoval, L. E. Rivera; Wijnands, R.; Degenaar, N.; Cavecchi, Y.; Heinke, C. O.; Cackett, E. M.; Homan, J.; Altamirano, D.; Bahramian, A.; Sivakoff, G. R.; Miller, J. M.; Parikh, A. S.

2018-06-01

EXO 1745-248 is a transient neutron-star low-mass X-ray binary that resides in the globular cluster Terzan 5. We studied the transient during its quiescent state using 18 Chandra observations of the cluster acquired between 2003 and 2016. We found an extremely variable source, with a luminosity variation in the 0.5-10 keV energy range of ˜3 orders of magnitude (between 3 × 1031 erg s-1 and 2 × 1034 erg s-1) on time scales from years down to only a few days. Using an absorbed power-law model to fit its quiescent spectra, we obtained a typical photon index of ˜1.4, indicating that the source is even harder than during outburst and much harder than typical quiescent neutron stars if their quiescent X-ray spectra are also described by a single power-law model. This indicates that EXO 1745-248 is very hard throughout the entire observed X-ray luminosity range. At the highest luminosity, the spectrum fits better when an additional (soft) component is added to the model. All these quiescent properties are likely related to strong variability in the low-level accretion rate in the system. However, its extreme variable behavior is strikingly different from the one observed for other neutron star transients that are thought to still accrete in quiescence. We compare our results to these systems. We also discuss similarities and differences between our target and the transitional millisecond pulsar IGR J18245-2452, which also has hard spectra and strong variability during quiescence.

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Spatio-Temporal Changes In Non-Extreme Precipitation Variability Over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roque, S.

2016-12-01

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. The median increase in fraction of wet days in a year indicates that in 2010, North America experienced an additional 11 days of precipitation compared to 1960 (when the median number of wet days was 96), and wet periods that were 0.14 days longer than those in 1960 (when the median was 1.78 days). Further, these changes in high-frequency precipitation are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Results reveal the existence of localized clusters with opposing trends to that of broader geographic variation, which illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems, and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Variability Properties of Four Million Sources in the TESS Input Catalog Observed with the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oelkers, Ryan J.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pepper, Joshua; Somers, Garrett; Kafka, Stella; Stevens, Daniel J.; Beatty, Thomas G.; Siverd, Robert J.; Lund, Michael B.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; James, David; Gaudi, B. Scott

2018-01-01

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) has been surveying more than 70% of the celestial sphere for nearly a decade. While the primary science goal of the survey is the discovery of transiting, large-radii planets around bright host stars, the survey has collected more than 106 images, with a typical cadence between 10–30 minutes, for more than four million sources with apparent visual magnitudes in the approximate range 7< V< 13. Here, we provide a catalog of 52,741 objects showing significant large-amplitude fluctuations likely caused by stellar variability, as well as 62,229 objects identified with likely stellar rotation periods. The detected variability ranges in rms-amplitude from ∼3 mmag to ∼2.3 mag, and the detected periods range from ∼0.1 to ≳2000 days. We provide variability upper limits for all other ∼4,000,000 sources. These upper limits are principally a function of stellar brightness, but we achieve typical 1σ sensitivity on 30 min timescales down to ∼5 mmag at V∼ 8, and down to ∼43 mmag at V∼ 13. We have matched our catalog to the TESS Input catalog and the AAVSO Variable Star Index to precipitate the follow-up and classification of each source. The catalog is maintained as a living database on the Filtergraph visualization portal at the URL https://filtergraph.com/kelt_vars.

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Daniel Griffin; Peter van der Sleen; Alan D. Wanamaker; James H. Speer; David C. Frank; David W. Stahle; Neil Pederson; Carolyn A. Copenheaver; Valerie Trouet; Shelly Griffin; Bronwyn M. Gillanders

2016-01-01

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time...

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Does high diurnal variability in a reef flat from Ofu, American Samoa confer resistance to ocean acidification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koweek, D.; Samuel, L.; Mucciarone, D. A.; Woodson, C. B.; Monismith, S. G.; Dunbar, R. B.

2012-12-01

Forecasts for coral reefs under various ocean acidification scenarios are becoming increasingly complex due to significant inter-site variability in biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical oceanography. The reef flats of Ofu, American Samoa are a potential end-member of this vulnerability spectrum due to extremely high diurnal variability in their biogeochemistry. Here we present coupled biogeochemical and physical oceanographic measurements from a shallow reef flat on Ofu in November 2011. We observed diurnal temperature ranges of up to 7°C, along with diurnal pH and dissolved oxygen ranges of 0.6 units, and 160 percent of saturation, respectively. Carbon system measurements were less extreme. Alkalinity varied between 2240-2360 μmol/kg and total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) ranged between 1850-2100 μmol/kg during the diurnal cycle. These observations suggest diurnal ranges of ~240ppm CO2 and 1.5 units of ΩAr. The larger diurnal range in TDIC relative to alkalinity suggests a reef environment dominated by photosynthesis. From these observations, we explore the balance between the dominant biogeochemical processes of production and calcification on the reef flat in more detail, along with its implication for conferring resistance to ocean acidification. We use calcification rate estimates to provide insight to patterns of day and night growth and/or dissolution on the reef. Finally, we present evidence of tidal modulation of the biogeochemical signals and discuss the role of localized physical circulation in helping to determine a reef's vulnerability to ocean acidification.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

statistically extratropical storms and extremes, and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang...forecast models, as well as in the understanding they have generated. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim and Shuguang Wang. Extratropical variability and...predictability. Determine the extent to which extratropical monthly and seasonal low-frequency variability (LFV, i.e. PNA, NAO, as well as other regional

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Extreme infrared variables from UKIDSS - II. An end-of-survey catalogue of eruptive YSOs and unusual stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, P. W.; Smith, L. C.; Contreras Peña, C.; Froebrich, D.; Drew, J. E.; Kumar, M. S. N.; Borissova, J.; Minniti, D.; Kurtev, R.; Monguió, M.

2017-12-01

We present a catalogue of 618 high-amplitude infrared variable stars (1 < ΔK < 5 mag) detected by the two widely separated epochs of 2.2 μm data in the UKIDSS Galactic plane survey, from searches covering ∼1470 deg2. Most were discovered by a search of all fields at 30 < l < 230°. Sources include new dusty Mira variables, three new cataclysmic variable candidates, a blazar and a peculiar source that may be an interacting binary system. However, ∼60 per cent are young stellar obbjects (YSOs), based on spatial association with star-forming regions at distances ranging from 300 pc to over 10 kpc. This confirms our initial result in Contreras Peña et al. (Paper I) that YSOs dominate the high-amplitude infrared variable sky in the Galactic disc. It is also supported by recently published VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) results at 295 < l < 350°. The spectral energy distributions of the YSOs indicate class I or flat-spectrum systems in most cases, as in the VVV sample. A large number of variable YSOs are associated with the Cygnus X complex and other groups are associated with the North America/Pelican nebula, the Gemini OB1 molecular cloud, the Rosette complex, the Cone nebula, the W51 star-forming region and the S86 and S236 H II regions. Most of the YSO variability is likely due to variable/episodic accretion on time-scales of years, albeit usually less extreme than classical FUors and EXors. Luminosities at the 2010 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer epoch range from ∼0.1 to 103 L⊙ but only rarely exceed 102.5 L⊙.

Asymmetrical Responses of Ecosystem Processes to Positive Versus Negative Precipitation Extremes: a Replicated Regression Experimental Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, A. J.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Heightened climatic variability due to atmospheric warming is forecast to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes. In particular, changes to interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by increases in extreme wet and dry years, are likely to impact virtually all terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, to date experimental approaches have yet to explicitly test how ecosystem processes respond to multiple levels of climatic extremity, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will respond to forecast increases in the magnitude of climate extremes. Here we report the results of a replicated regression experimental approach, in which we imposed 9 and 11 levels of growing season precipitation amount and extremity in mesic grassland during 2015 and 2016, respectively. Each level corresponded to a specific percentile of the long-term record, which produced a large gradient of soil moisture conditions that ranged from extreme wet to extreme dry. In both 2015 and 2016, asymptotic responses to water availability were observed for soil respiration. This asymmetry was driven in part by transitions between soil moisture versus temperature constraints on respiration as conditions became increasingly dry versus increasingly wet. In 2015, aboveground net primary production (ANPP) exhibited asymmetric responses to precipitation that largely mirrored those of soil respiration. In total, our results suggest that in this mesic ecosystem, these two carbon cycle processes were more sensitive to extreme drought than to extreme wet years. Future work will assess ANPP responses for 2016, soil nutrient supply and physiological responses of the dominant plant species. Future efforts are needed to compare our findings across a diverse array of ecosystem types, and in particular how the timing and magnitude of precipitation events may modify the response of ecosystem processes to increasing magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

Characterizing Extreme Environments for Army Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-01

necessary to evaluate the plain, upland), well-developed and variable soil capability to conduct a specific test at a given location. profiles ( oxisols ...m) to medium (up to 20m) width streams, with nominal nominal velocities (ងm/s). Soils: Oxisols , ultisols, inceptisols, minimum depth in the range

The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which yield extreme precipitation events in different regions of California are studied to categorize the most impactful ARs in each region.

Exact extreme-value statistics at mixed-order transitions.

PubMed

Bar, Amir; Majumdar, Satya N; Schehr, Grégory; Mukamel, David

2016-05-01

We study extreme-value statistics for spatially extended models exhibiting mixed-order phase transitions (MOT). These are phase transitions that exhibit features common to both first-order (discontinuity of the order parameter) and second-order (diverging correlation length) transitions. We consider here the truncated inverse distance squared Ising model, which is a prototypical model exhibiting MOT, and study analytically the extreme-value statistics of the domain lengths The lengths of the domains are identically distributed random variables except for the global constraint that their sum equals the total system size L. In addition, the number of such domains is also a fluctuating variable, and not fixed. In the paramagnetic phase, we show that the distribution of the largest domain length l_{max} converges, in the large L limit, to a Gumbel distribution. However, at the critical point (for a certain range of parameters) and in the ferromagnetic phase, we show that the fluctuations of l_{max} are governed by novel distributions, which we compute exactly. Our main analytical results are verified by numerical simulations.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Long-term variability and changes in thunderstorm induced extreme precipitation in Slovakia over 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Faško, P.; Bližák, V.; Kajaba, P.; Košálová, J.; Bochníček, O.; Lešková, L.

2012-04-01

It is well known that extreme precipitation associated with intensive rains, in summer induced mostly by local thunderstorm activity, could cause very significant problems in economical and social spheres of the countries. Heavy precipitation and consecutive flash-floods are the most serious weather-related hazards over the territory of Slovakia. The extreme precipitation analyses play a strategic role in many climatological and hydrological evaluations designed for the wide range of technical and engineering applications as well as climate change impact assessments. A thunderstorm, as a violent local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and accompanied by thunder and lightning, represents extreme convective activity in the atmosphere depending upon the release of latent heat, by the condensation of water vapor, for most of its energy. Under the natural conditions of Slovakia the incidence of thunderstorms has been traditionally concentrated in the summer or warm half-year (Apr.-Sept.), but increasing air temperature resulting in higher water vapor content and more intense short-term precipitation is associated with more frequent thunderstorm occurrence in early spring as well as autumn. It is the main reason why the studies of thunderstorm phenomena have increased in Slovakia in recent years. It was found that thunderstorm occurrence, in terms of incidence of storm days, has profoundly changed particularly in spring season (~ 30 % in April and May). The present contribution is devoted to verifying the hypothesis that recently the precipitation has been more intense and significant shifts in seasonal incidence have occurred in particular regions in Slovakia. On the basis of the 60-year (1951-2010) meteorological observation series obtained from more than 20 synoptic stations, the analysis of trends and long-term variability of the days with thunderstorms and the accompanying precipitation for seasons was undertaken. Contribution also attempts to explain the main causes of the thunderstorm as well as extreme precipitation variability. Furthermore, differentiation of daily sums of precipitation for the days with thunderstorms, their long-term variability and probability of occurrence is also presented. Key words: thunderstorm occurrence, trend analysis, extreme precipitation, day with thunderstorm, climate change, climate variability, Slovakia

Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveau, Philippe; Nogaj, Marta; Ammann, Caspar; Yiou, Pascal; Cooley, Daniel; Jomelli, Vincent

2005-08-01

Currently there is an increasing research activity in the area of climate extremes because they represent a key manifestation of non-linear systems and an enormous impact on economic and social human activities. Our understanding of the mean behavior of climate and its 'normal' variability has been improving significantly during the last decades. In comparison, climate extreme events have been hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. In this context, the motivation for this paper is twofold. Firstly, we recall the basic principles of Extreme Value Theory that is used on a regular basis in finance and hydrology, but it still does not have the same success in climate studies. More precisely, the theoretical distributions of maxima and large peaks are recalled. The parameters of such distributions are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation procedure that offers the flexibility to take into account explanatory variables in our analysis. Secondly, we detail three case-studies to show that this theory can provide a solid statistical foundation, specially when assessing the uncertainty associated with extreme events in a wide range of applications linked to the study of our climate. To cite this article: P. Naveau et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

PubMed

Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee

2014-11-01

A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Climate extremes in the Pacific: improving seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures to improve resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Spillman, C. M.

2012-04-01

Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures, the first being the most destructive events for terrestrial systems, while the latter has the potential to devastate ocean ecosystems through coral bleaching. As a practical response to climate change, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program (PACCSAP), we are developing enhanced web-based information tools for providing seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas. Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change. In the warming environment, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships, with predictors such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now frequently lying outside of the range of past variability meaning that it is not possible to find historical analogues for the seasonal conditions often faced by Pacific countries. Elevated SSTs are the primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and mortality on reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries. The monitoring and prediction of thermal stress events enables the support of a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. Using the climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme SSTs for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Australia and Pacific Island Countries under climate change. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Sympatric speciation by sexual selection alone is unlikely.

PubMed

Arnegard, Matthew E; Kondrashov, Alexey S

2004-02-01

According to Darwin, sympatric speciation is driven by disruptive, frequency-dependent natural selection caused by competition for diverse resources. Recently, several authors have argued that disruptive sexual selection can also cause sympatric speciation. Here, we use hypergeometric phenotypic and individual-based genotypic models to explore sympatric speciation by sexual selection under a broad range of conditions. If variabilities of preference and display traits are each caused by more than one or two polymorphic loci, sympatric speciation requires rather strong sexual selection when females exert preferences for extreme male phenotypes. Under this kind of mate choice, speciation can occur only if initial distributions of preference and display are close to symmetric. Otherwise, the population rapidly loses variability. Thus, unless allele replacements at very few loci are enough for reproductive isolation, female preferences for extreme male displays are unlikely to drive sympatric speciation. By contrast, similarity-based female preferences that do not cause sexual selection are less destabilizing to the maintenance of genetic variability and may result in sympatric speciation across a broader range of initial conditions. Certain groups of African cichlids have served as the exclusive motivation for the hypothesis of sympatric speciation by sexual selection. Mate choice in these fishes appears to be driven by female preferences for extreme male phenotypes rather than similarity-based preferences, and the evolution of premating reproductive isolation commonly involves at least several genes. Therefore, differences in female preferences and male display in cichlids and other species of sympatric origin are more likely to have evolved as isolating mechanisms under disruptive natural selection.

Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Seong-Gil

2018-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. Material/Methods This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. Results In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (p<0.05). In simple correlation analysis, all variables that passed the correlation analysis procedure had significant influence (p<0.05). In multiple linear regression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). Conclusions Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement. PMID:29760375

Effect of Ankle Range of Motion (ROM) and Lower-Extremity Muscle Strength on Static Balance Control Ability in Young Adults: A Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Seong-Gil; Kim, Wan-Soo

2018-05-15

BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ankle ROM and lower-extremity muscle strength on static balance control ability in young adults. MATERIAL AND METHODS This study was conducted with 65 young adults, but 10 young adults dropped out during the measurement, so 55 young adults (male: 19, female: 36) completed the study. Postural sway (length and velocity) was measured with eyes open and closed, and ankle ROM (AROM and PROM of dorsiflexion and plantarflexion) and lower-extremity muscle strength (flexor and extensor of hip, knee, and ankle joint) were measured. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between variables and static balance ability. Simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to examine the effect of variables on static balance ability. RESULTS In correlation analysis, plantarflexion ROM (AROM and PROM) and lower-extremity muscle strength (except hip extensor) were significantly correlated with postural sway (p<0.05). In simple correlation analysis, all variables that passed the correlation analysis procedure had significant influence (p<0.05). In multiple linear regression analysis, plantar flexion PROM with eyes open significantly influenced sway length (B=0.681) and sway velocity (B=0.011). CONCLUSIONS Lower-extremity muscle strength and ankle plantarflexion ROM influenced static balance control ability, with ankle plantarflexion PROM showing the greatest influence. Therefore, both contractile structures and non-contractile structures should be of interest when considering static balance control ability improvement.

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Correlation between mobility assessed by the Modified Rivermead Mobility Index and physical function in stroke patients

PubMed Central

Park, Gi-Tae; Kim, Mihyun

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between mobility assessed by the Modified Rivermead Mobility Index and variables associated with physical function in stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] One hundred stroke patients (35 males and 65 females; age 58.60 ± 13.91 years) participated in this study. Modified Rivermead Mobility Index, muscle strength (manual muscle test), muscle tone (Modified Ashworth Scale), range of motion of lower extremity, sensory function (light touch and proprioception tests), and coordination (heel to shin and lower-extremity motor coordination tests) were assessed. [Results] The Modified Rivermead Mobility Index was correlated with all the physical function variables assessed, except the degree of knee extension. In addition, stepwise linear regression analysis revealed that coordination (heel to shin test) was the explanatory variable closely associated with mobility in stroke patients. [Conclusion] The Modified Rivermead Mobility Index score was significantly correlated with all the physical function variables. Coordination (heel to shin test) was closely related to mobility function. These results may be useful in developing rehabilitation programs for stroke patients. PMID:27630440

Exploring Speech Recognition Technology: Children with Learning and Emotional/Behavioral Disorders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faris-Cole, Debra; Lewis, Rena

2001-01-01

Intermediate grade students with disabilities in written expression and emotional/behavioral disorders were trained to use discrete or continuous speech input devices for written work. The study found extreme variability in the fidelity of the devices, PowerSecretary and Dragon NaturallySpeaking ranging from 49 percent to 87 percent. Both devices…

Multi-band implications of external-IC flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Stephan; Spanier, Felix

2015-02-01

Very fast variability on scales of minutes is regularly observed in Blazars. The assumption that these flares are emerging from the dominant emission zone of the very high energy (VHE) radiation within the jet challenges current acceleration and radiation models. In this work we use a spatially resolved and time dependent synchrotron-self-Compton (SSC) model that includes the full time dependence of Fermi-I acceleration. We use the (apparent) orphan γ -ray flare of Mrk501 during MJD 54952 and test various flare scenarios against the observed data. We find that a rapidly variable external radiation field can reproduce the high energy lightcurve best. However, the effect of the strong inverse Compton (IC) cooling on other bands and the X-ray observations are constraining the parameters to rather extreme ranges. Then again other scenarios would require parameters even more extreme or stronger physical constraints on the rise and decay of the source of the variability which might be in contradiction with constraints derived from the size of the black hole's ergosphere.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Application of a symbolic motion structure representation algorithm to identify upper extremity kinematic changes during a repetitive task.

PubMed

Whittaker, Rachel L; Park, Woojin; Dickerson, Clark R

2018-04-27

Efficient and holistic identification of fatigue-induced movement strategies can be limited by large between-subject variability in descriptors of joint angle data. One promising alternative to traditional, or computationally intensive methods is the symbolic motion structure representation algorithm (SMSR), which identifies the basic spatial-temporal structure of joint angle data using string descriptors of temporal joint angle trajectories. This study attempted to use the SMSR to identify changes in upper extremity time series joint angle data during a repetitive goal directed task causing muscle fatigue. Twenty-eight participants (15 M, 13 F) performed a seated repetitive task until fatigued. Upper extremity joint angles were extracted from motion capture for representative task cycles. SMSRs, averages and ranges of several joint angles were compared at the start and end of the repetitive task to identify kinematic changes with fatigue. At the group level, significant increases in the range of all joint angle data existed with large between-subject variability that posed a challenge to the interpretation of these fatigue-related changes. However, changes in the SMSRs across participants effectively summarized the adoption of adaptive movement strategies. This establishes SMSR as a viable, logical, and sensitive method of fatigue identification via kinematic changes, with novel application and pragmatism for visual assessment of fatigue development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical Demand but Not Dexterity Is Associated with Motor Flexibility during Rapid Reaching in Healthy Young Adults

PubMed Central

Greve, Christian; Hortobàgyi, Tibor; Bongers, Raoul M.

2015-01-01

Healthy humans are able to place light and heavy objects in small and large target locations with remarkable accuracy. Here we examine how dexterity demand and physical demand affect flexibility in joint coordination and end-effector kinematics when healthy young adults perform an upper extremity reaching task. We manipulated dexterity demand by changing target size and physical demand by increasing external resistance to reaching. Uncontrolled manifold analysis was used to decompose variability in joint coordination patterns into variability stabilizing the end-effector and variability de-stabilizing the end-effector during reaching. Our results demonstrate a proportional increase in stabilizing and de-stabilizing variability without a change in the ratio of the two variability components as physical demands increase. We interpret this finding in the context of previous studies showing that sensorimotor noise increases with increasing physical demands. We propose that the larger de-stabilizing variability as a function of physical demand originated from larger sensorimotor noise in the neuromuscular system. The larger stabilizing variability with larger physical demands is a strategy employed by the neuromuscular system to counter the de-stabilizing variability so that performance stability is maintained. Our findings have practical implications for improving the effectiveness of movement therapy in a wide range of patient groups, maintaining upper extremity function in old adults, and for maximizing athletic performance. PMID:25970465

Overview of the biology of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

2008-12-01

Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis. Effects on water and N cycles are already marked. Adaptive responses of plants are very irregularly distributed among species and genotypes, most adaptive responses having been lost over 20 My of minimal or virtually accidental genetic selection for correlated traits. Offsets of plant activity from those of pollinators and pests may amplify direct physiological effects on plants. Another extreme of interest is the insect-mediated mass dieoff of conifers across western North America tied to a rare combination of drought and year-long high temperatures.

Expected scientific performance of the three spectrometers on the extreme ultraviolet explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallerga, J. V.; Jelinsky, P.; Vedder, P. W.; Malina, R. F.

1990-01-01

The expected in-orbit performance of the three spectrometers included on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer astronomical satellite is presented. Recent calibrations of the gratings, mirrors and detectors using monochromatic and continuum EUV light sources allow the calculation of the spectral resolution and throughput of the instrument. An effective area range of 0.2 to 2.8 sq cm is achieved over the wavelength range 70-600 A with a peak spectral resolution (FWHM) of 360 assuming a spacecraft pointing knowledge of 10 arc seconds (FWHM). For a 40,000 sec observation, the average 3 sigma sensitivity to a monochromatic line source is 0.003 photons/sq cm s. Simulated observations of known classes of EUV sources, such as hot white dwarfs, and cataclysmic variables are also presented.

Enhanced Cumulative Sum Charts for Monitoring Process Dispersion

PubMed Central

Abujiya, Mu’azu Ramat; Riaz, Muhammad; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

2015-01-01

The cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart is widely used in industry for the detection of small and moderate shifts in process location and dispersion. For efficient monitoring of process variability, we present several CUSUM control charts for monitoring changes in standard deviation of a normal process. The newly developed control charts based on well-structured sampling techniques - extreme ranked set sampling, extreme double ranked set sampling and double extreme ranked set sampling, have significantly enhanced CUSUM chart ability to detect a wide range of shifts in process variability. The relative performances of the proposed CUSUM scale charts are evaluated in terms of the average run length (ARL) and standard deviation of run length, for point shift in variability. Moreover, for overall performance, we implore the use of the average ratio ARL and average extra quadratic loss. A comparison of the proposed CUSUM control charts with the classical CUSUM R chart, the classical CUSUM S chart, the fast initial response (FIR) CUSUM R chart, the FIR CUSUM S chart, the ranked set sampling (RSS) based CUSUM R chart and the RSS based CUSUM S chart, among others, are presented. An illustrative example using real dataset is given to demonstrate the practicability of the application of the proposed schemes. PMID:25901356

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

2017-04-01

The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme values of 'still water level' and 'non-tidal-residual' of in-situ records from the GESLA2 dataset (Woodworth et al. 2016) against the novel coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al. 2016). Seasonal patterns, inter-annual variability and long-term trends are analyzed. Then, a time-dependent extreme model (Menendez et al. 2009) is applied to characterize extreme sea level return values and their variability on the coastal area around the world.

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Implementation of patient blood management remains extremely variable in Europe and Canada: the NATA benchmark project: An observational study.

PubMed

Van der Linden, Philippe; Hardy, Jean-François

2016-12-01

Preoperative anaemia is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. Patient blood management (PBM) is advocated to improve patient outcomes. NATA, the 'Network for the advancement of patient blood management, haemostasis and thrombosis', initiated a benchmark project with the aim of providing the basis for educational strategies to implement optimal PBM in participating centres. Prospective, observational study with online data collection in 11 secondary and tertiary care institutions interested in developing PBM. Ten European centres (Austria, Spain, England, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, Greece, France, and Germany) and one Canadian centre participated between January 2010 and June 2011. A total of 2470 patients undergoing total hip (THR) or knee replacement, or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), were registered in the study. Data from 2431 records were included in the final analysis. Primary outcome measures were the incidence and volume of red blood cells (RBC) transfused. Logistic regression analysis identified variables independently associated with RBC transfusions. The incidence of transfusion was significantly different between centres for THR (range 7 to 95%), total knee replacement (range 3 to 100%) and CABG (range 20 to 95%). The volume of RBC transfused was significantly different between centres for THR and CABG. The incidence of preoperative anaemia ranged between 3 and 40% and its treatment between 0 and 40%, the latter not being related to the former. Patient characteristics, evolution of haemoglobin concentrations and blood losses were also different between centres. Variables independently associated with RBC transfusion were preoperative haemoglobin concentration, lost volume of RBC and female sex. Implementation of PBM remains extremely variable across centres. The relative importance of factors explaining RBC transfusion differs across institutions, some being patient related whereas others are related to the healthcare process. The results reported confidentially to each centre will allow them to implement tailored measures to improve their PBM strategies.

Sexual dimorphism in epigenomicresponses of stem cells to extreme fetal growth

PubMed Central

Delahaye, Fabien; Wijetunga, N. Ari; Heo, Hye J.; Tozour, Jessica N.; Zhao, Yong Mei; Greally, John M.; Einstein, Francine H.

2014-01-01

Extreme fetal growth is associated with increased susceptibility to a range of adult diseases through an unknown mechanism of cellular memory. We tested whether heritable epigenetic processes in long-lived CD34+ hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) showed evidence for re-programming associated with the extremes of fetal growth. Here we show that both fetal growth restriction and over-growth are associated with global shifts towards DNA hypermethylation, targeting cis-regulatory elements in proximity to genes involved in glucose homeostasis and stem cell function. We find a sexually dimorphic response; intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is associated with substantially greater epigenetic dysregulation in males, whereas large for gestational age (LGA) growth predominantly affects females. The findings are consistent with extreme fetal growth interacting with variable fetal susceptibility to influence cellular aging and metabolic characteristics through epigenetic mechanisms, potentially generating biomarkers that could identify infants at higher risk for chronic disease later in life. PMID:25300954

Sexual dimorphism in epigenomic responses of stem cells to extreme fetal growth.

PubMed

Delahaye, Fabien; Wijetunga, N Ari; Heo, Hye J; Tozour, Jessica N; Zhao, Yong Mei; Greally, John M; Einstein, Francine H

2014-10-10

Extreme fetal growth is associated with increased susceptibility to a range of adult diseases through an unknown mechanism of cellular memory. We tested whether heritable epigenetic processes in long-lived CD34(+) haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells showed evidence for re-programming associated with the extremes of fetal growth. Here we show that both fetal growth restriction and over-growth are associated with global shifts towards DNA hypermethylation, targeting cis-regulatory elements in proximity to genes involved in glucose homeostasis and stem cell function. We find a sexually dimorphic response; intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially greater epigenetic dysregulation in males, whereas large for gestational age growth predominantly affects females. The findings are consistent with extreme fetal growth interacting with variable fetal susceptibility to influence cellular ageing and metabolic characteristics through epigenetic mechanisms, potentially generating biomarkers that could identify infants at higher risk for chronic disease later in life.

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

2017-01-01

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

Extreme Events in Urban Streams Leading to Extreme Temperatures in Birmingham, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, S.; Croghan, D.; Van Loon, A.; Sadler, J. P.; Hannah, D. M.

2016-12-01

Extreme flows and high water temperature events act as critical stressors on the ecological health of rivers. Urban headwater streams are considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of these extreme events. Despite this, such catchments remain poorly characterised and the effect of differences in land use is rarely quantified, especially in relation to water temperature. Thus a key research gap has emerged in understanding the patterns of water temperature during extreme events within contrasting urban, headwater catchments. We studied the headwaters of two bordering urban catchments of contrasting land use within Birmingham, UK. To characterise response to extreme events, precipitation and flow were analysed for the period of 1970-2016. To analyse the effects of extreme events on water temperature, 10 temperature loggers recording at 15 minute intervals were placed within each catchment covering a range of land use for the period May 2016 - present. During peak over threshold flood events higher average peaks were observed in the less urbanised catchment; however highest maximum flow peaks took place in the more densely urbanised catchment. Very similar average drought durations were observed between the two catchments with average flow drought durations of 27 days in the most urbanised catchment, and 29 in the less urbanised catchment. Flashier water temperature regimes were observed within the more urbanised catchment and increases of up to 5 degrees were apparent within 30 minutes during certain storms at the most upstream sites. Only in the most extreme events did the more densely urban stream appear more susceptible to both extreme high flows and extreme water temperature events, possibly resultant from overland flow emerging as the dominant flow pathway during intense precipitation events. Water temperature surges tended to be highly spatially variable indicating the importance of local land use. During smaller events, water temperature was less changeable and spatially variable, suggesting that overland flow may not the dominant flow pathway in such events. During drought events, the effect of catchment land use on water temperature was less apparent.

[Upper extremity kinetics and energy expenditure during walker-assisted gait in children with cerebral palsy].

PubMed

Konop, Katherine A; Strifling, Kelly M B; Wang, Mei; Cao, Kevin; Eastwood, Daniel; Jackson, Scott; Ackman, Jeffrey; Altiok, Haluk; Schwab, Jeffrey; Harris, Gerald F

2009-01-01

We evaluated the relationships between upper extremity (UE) kinetics and the energy expenditure index during anterior and posterior walker-assisted gait in children with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy (CP). Ten children (3 boys, 7 girls; mean age 12.1 years; range 8 to 18 years) with spastic diplegic CP, who ambulated with a walker underwent gait analyses that included UE kinematics and kinetics. Upper extremity kinetics were obtained using instrumented walker handles. Energy expenditure index was obtained using the heart rate method (EEIHR) by subtracting resting heart rate from walking heart rate, and dividing by the walking speed. Correlations were sought between the kinetic variables and the EEIHR and temporal and stride parameters. In general, anterior walker use was associated with a higher EEIHR. Several kinetic variables correlated well with temporal and stride parameters, as well as the EEIHR. All of the significant correlations (r>0.80; p<0.005) occurred during anterior walker use and involved joint reaction forces (JRF) rather than moments. Some variables showed multiple strong correlations during anterior walker use, including the medial JRF in the wrist, the posterior JRF in the elbow, and the inferior and superior JRFs in the shoulder. The observed correlations may indicate a relationship between the force used to advance the body forward within the walker frame and an increased EEIHR. More work is needed to refine the correlations, and to explore relationships with other variables, including the joint kinematics.

Climate and topography explain range sizes of terrestrial vertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yiming; Li, Xianping; Sandel, Brody; Blank, David; Liu, Zetian; Liu, Xuan; Yan, Shaofei

2016-05-01

Identifying the factors that influence range sizes of species provides important insight into the distribution of biodiversity, and is crucial for predicting shifts in species ranges in response to climate change. Current climate (for example, climate variability and climate extremes), long-term climate change, evolutionary age, topographic heterogeneity, land area and species traits such as physiological thermal limits, dispersal ability, annual fecundity and body size have been shown to influence range size. Yet, few studies have examined the generality of each of these factors among different taxa, or have simultaneously evaluated the strength of relationships between range size and these factors at a global scale. We quantify contributions of these factors to range sizes of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds and reptiles) at a global scale. We found that large-ranged species experience greater monthly extremes of maximum or minimum temperature within their ranges, or occur in areas with higher long-term climate velocity and lower topographic heterogeneity or lower precipitation seasonality. Flight ability, body mass and continent width are important only for particular taxa. Our results highlight the importance of climate and topographic context in driving range size variation. The results suggest that small-range species may be vulnerable to climate change and should be the focus of conservation efforts.

Verification of the effects of Schumann frequency range electromagnetic fields on the human cardiovascular system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuzhilkin, D. A.; Borodin, A. S.

2017-11-01

The results of the study of variations in the electromagnetic background parameters of the Schumann resonator frequency range and the variability indices of the human heart period during its free activity are presented on the basis of 24-hour synchronous monitoring data. It is shown that the integral evaluation of the conjugacy of the heart rate variability indices from the Schumann resonance parameters is extremely weak. In this case, the differential evaluation of this dependence with separation into characteristic time intervals of the day, characterized by different motor activity of the subjects, becomes significantly higher. The number of volunteers whose conjugacy is characterized by a strong correlation in some cases reaches 35 percent of the sample.

Thermal adaptation and phosphorus shape thermal performance in an assemblage of rainforest ants.

PubMed

Kaspari, Michael; Clay, Natalie A; Lucas, Jane; Revzen, Shai; Kay, Adam; Yanoviak, Stephen P

2016-04-01

We studied the Thermal Performance Curves (TPCs) of 87 species of rainforest ants and found support for both the Thermal Adaptation and Phosphorus-Tolerance hypotheses. TPCs relate a fitness proxy (here, worker speed) to environmental temperature. Thermal Adaptation posits that thermal generalists (ants with flatter, broader TPCs) are favored in the hotter, more variable tropical canopy compared to the cooler, less variable litter below. As predicted, species nesting in the forest canopy 1) had running speeds less sensitive to temperature; 2) ran over a greater range of temperatures; and 3) ran at lower maximum speeds. Tradeoffs between tolerance and maximum performance are often invoked for constraining the evolution of thermal generalists. There was no evidence that ant species traded off thermal tolerance for maximum speed, however. Phosphorus-Tolerance is a second mechanism for generating ectotherms able to tolerate thermal extremes. It posits that ants active at high temperatures invest in P-rich machinery to buffer their metabolism against thermal extremes. Phosphorus content in ant tissue varied three-fold, and as predicted, temperature sensitivity was lower and thermal range was higher in P-rich species. Combined, we show how the vertical distribution of hot and variable vs. cooler and stable microclimates in a single forest contribute to a diversity of TPCs and suggest that a widely varying P stoichiometry among these ants may drive some of these differences.

Extreme Radio Flares and Associated X-Ray Variability from Young Stellar Objects in the Orion Nebula Cluster

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbrich, Jan; Reid, Mark J.; Wolk, Scott J.

Young stellar objects are known to exhibit strong radio variability on timescales of weeks to months, and a few reports have documented extreme radio flares with at least an order of magnitude change in flux density on timescales of hours to days. However, there have been few constraints on the occurrence rate of such radio flares or on the correlation with pre-main sequence X-ray flares, although such correlations are known for the Sun and nearby active stars. Here we report simultaneous deep VLA radio and Chandra X-ray observations of the Orion Nebula Cluster, targeting hundreds of sources to look formore » the occurrence rate of extreme radio variability and potential correlation with the most extreme X-ray variability. We identify 13 radio sources with extreme radio variability, with some showing an order of magnitude change in flux density in less than 30 minutes. All of these sources show X-ray emission and variability, but we find clear correlations with extreme radio flaring only on timescales <1 hr. Strong X-ray variability does not predict the extreme radio sources and vice versa. Radio flares thus provide us with a new perspective on high-energy processes in YSOs and the irradiation of their protoplanetary disks. Finally, our results highlight implications for interferometric imaging of sources violating the constant-sky assumption.« less

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability of fine particles in an urban environment using combined fixed and mobile measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, R. C.; Pryor, S. C.

2014-06-01

Spatiotemporal variability of fine particle concentrations in Indianapolis, Indiana is quantified using a combination of high temporal resolution measurements at four fixed sites and mobile measurements with instruments attached to bicycles during transects of the city. Average urban PM2.5 concentrations are an average of ˜3.9-5.1 μg m-3 above the regional background. The influence of atmospheric conditions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations is evident with the greatest temporal variability occurring at periods of one day and 5-10 days corresponding to diurnal and synoptic meteorological processes, and lower mean wind speeds are associated with episodes of high PM2.5 concentrations. An anthropogenic signal is also evident. Higher PM2.5 concentrations coincide with morning rush hour, the frequencies of PM2.5 variability co-occur with those for carbon monoxide, and higher extreme concentrations were observed mid-week compared to weekends. On shorter time scales (

Multi-band optical variability studies of Blazars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Aditi

2018-04-01

To search for optical variability on a wide range of timescales, we have carried out photometric monitoring of a dozen blazars. CCD magnitudes in B, V, R and I pass-bands were determined for > 10,000f new optical observations from 300 nights made during 2011 – 2016, with an average length of 4 h each, using seven optical telescopes: four in Bulgaria, one in Greece, and two in India. We measured multiband optical flux and colour variations on diverse timescales. Blazar variability studies helped us in understanding their nature and extreme conditions within the emission region. To explain possible physical causes of the observed spectral variability, we also investigated spectral energy distributions using B, V, R, I, J and K pass-band data.

Evidence for increasingly variable Palmer Drought Severity Index in the United States since 1895.

PubMed

Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

2016-02-15

Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous United States as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range)). During this time frame, the average aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase in drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the running aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in the aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous United States. Similar trends were found for the annual and summertime Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI), and the Palmer Z Index (PZI). Overall, interannual drought patterns in the contiguous United States are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

2017-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Avolio, Meghan L; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J W; Collins, Scott L; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J; Hoover, David L; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E; Phillips, Richard P; Post, Alison K; Sala, Osvaldo E; Slette, Ingrid J; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D

2017-05-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed in this analysis, preliminary results from the development of a flexible categorization scheme, that scales with grid resolution, are presented.

Assessment of the uncertainty in future projection for summer climate extremes over the East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Cha, Dong-Hyun

2017-04-01

Future projections of climate extremes in regional and local scales are essential information needed for better adapting to climate changes. However, future projections hold larger uncertainty factors arising from internal and external processes which reduce the projection confidence. Using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model simulations, we assess uncertainties in future projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation extremes focusing on summer. In examining future projection, summer mean and extreme projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation would be larger as time. Moreover, uncertainty cascades represent wider scenario difference and inter-model ranges with increasing time. A positive mean-extreme relation is found in projections for both temperature and precipitation. For the assessment of uncertainty factors for these projections, dominant uncertainty factors from temperature and precipitation change as time. For uncertainty of mean and extreme temperature, contributions of internal variability and model uncertainty declines after mid-21st century while role of scenario uncertainty grows rapidly. For uncertainty of mean precipitation projections, internal variability is more important than the scenario uncertainty. Unlike mean precipitation, extreme precipitation shows that the scenario uncertainty is expected to be a dominant factor in 2090s. The model uncertainty holds as an important factor for both mean and extreme precipitation until late 21st century. The spatial changes for the uncertainty factors of mean and extreme projections generally are expressed according to temporal changes of the fraction of total variance from uncertainty factors in many grids of the East Asia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

A Normal Incidence X-ray Telescope (NIXT) Sounding Rocket Payload

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Leon

1998-01-01

The solar corona, and the coronae of solar-type stars, consist of a low-density magnetized plasma at temperatures exceeding 10(exp 6) K. The primary coronal emission is therefore in the UV and soft X-ray range. The observed close connection between solar magnetic fields and the physical parameters of the corona implies a fundamental role for the magnetic field in coronal structuring and dynamics. Variability of the corona occurs on all temporal and spatial scales - at one extreme, as the result of plasma instabilities, and at the other extreme driven by the global magnetic flux emergence patterns of the solar cycle.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

2017-01-01

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

The Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI): A data-driven approach to quantifying neighborhood risk during extreme hot weather.

PubMed

Krstic, Nikolas; Yuchi, Weiran; Ho, Hung Chak; Walker, Blake B; Knudby, Anders J; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-12-01

Mortality attributable to extreme hot weather is a growing concern in many urban environments, and spatial heat vulnerability indexes are often used to identify areas at relatively higher and lower risk. Three indexes were developed for greater Vancouver, Canada using a pool of 20 potentially predictive variables categorized to reflect social vulnerability, population density, temperature exposure, and urban form. One variable was chosen from each category: an existing deprivation index, senior population density, apparent temperature, and road density, respectively. The three indexes were constructed from these variables using (1) unweighted, (2) weighted, and (3) data-driven Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI) approaches. The performance of each index was assessed using mortality data from 1998-2014, and the maps were compared with respect to spatial patterns identified. The population-weighted spatial correlation between the three indexes ranged from 0.68-0.89. The HEIDI approach produced a graduated map of vulnerability, whereas the other approaches primarily identified areas of highest risk. All indexes performed best under extreme temperatures, but HEIDI was more useful at lower thresholds. Each of the indexes in isolation provides valuable information for public health protection, but combining the HEIDI approach with unweighted and weighted methods provides richer information about areas most vulnerable to heat. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2016-11-16

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003-2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010-2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December-January-February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500-2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March-April-May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21 st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought.

An Improved Correction for Range Restricted Correlations Under Extreme, Monotonic Quadratic Nonlinearity and Heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2016-06-01

Standardized tests are frequently used for selection decisions, and the validation of test scores remains an important area of research. This paper builds upon prior literature about the effect of nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity on the accuracy of standard formulas for correcting correlations in restricted samples. Existing formulas for direct range restriction require three assumptions: (1) the criterion variable is missing at random; (2) a linear relationship between independent and dependent variables; and (3) constant error variance or homoscedasticity. The results in this paper demonstrate that the standard approach for correcting restricted correlations is severely biased in cases of extreme monotone quadratic nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity. This paper offers at least three significant contributions to the existing literature. First, a method from the econometrics literature is adapted to provide more accurate estimates of unrestricted correlations. Second, derivations establish bounds on the degree of bias attributed to quadratic functions under the assumption of a monotonic relationship between test scores and criterion measurements. New results are presented on the bias associated with using the standard range restriction correction formula, and the results show that the standard correction formula yields estimates of unrestricted correlations that deviate by as much as 0.2 for high to moderate selectivity. Third, Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that the new procedure for correcting restricted correlations provides more accurate estimates in the presence of quadratic and heteroscedastic test score and criterion relationships.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Effect of trotting speed on kinematic variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units in nonlame horses performing controlled treadmill exercise.

PubMed

Cruz, Antonio M; Vidondo, Beatriz; Ramseyer, Alessandra A; Maninchedda, Ugo E

2018-02-01

OBJECTIVE To assess effects of speed on kinematic variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units (IMUs) in nonlame horses performing controlled exercise on a treadmill. ANIMALS 10 nonlame horses. PROCEDURES 6 IMUs were attached at predetermined locations on 10 nonlame Franches Montagnes horses. Data were collected in triplicate during trotting at 3.33 and 3.88 m/s on a high-speed treadmill. Thirty-three selected kinematic variables were analyzed. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to assess the effect of speed. RESULTS Significant differences between the 2 speeds were detected for most temporal (11/14) and spatial (12/19) variables. The observed spatial and temporal changes would translate into a gait for the higher speed characterized by increased stride length, protraction and retraction, flexion and extension, mediolateral movement of the tibia, and symmetry, but with similar temporal variables and a reduction in stride duration. However, even though the tibia coronal range of motion was significantly different between speeds, the high degree of variability raised concerns about whether these changes were clinically relevant. For some variables, the lower trotting speed apparently was associated with more variability than was the higher trotting speed. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE At a higher trotting speed, horses moved in the same manner (eg, the temporal events investigated occurred at the same relative time within the stride). However, from a spatial perspective, horses moved with greater action of the segments evaluated. The detected changes in kinematic variables indicated that trotting speed should be controlled or kept constant during gait evaluation.

Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

2015-04-01

Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a range of SST responses, as well as a range of RCP scenarios, allows us to assess the uncertainty in the response to elevated GHG emissions that occurs in the CMIP5 ensemble. Numerous extreme weather events can be studied. Firstly, we analyse droughts in Europe with a focus on the UK in the context of the project MaRIUS (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity). We analyse the characteristics of the simulated droughts, the underlying physical mechanisms, and assess droughts observed in the recent past. Secondly, we analyse windstorms by applying an objective storm-identification and tracking algorithm to the ensemble output, isolating those storms that cause high loss and building a probabilistic storm catalogue, which can be used by impact modellers, insurance loss modellers, etc. Finally, we combine the model output with a heat-stress index to determine the detrimental effect on health of heat waves in Europe. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

PubMed

Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologic events in Apalachicola Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahsin, Subrina; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Singh, Arvind

2016-07-01

Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact from these extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide range of hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000 to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover, while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

Disparities in Aesthetic Procedures Performed by Plastic Surgery Residents.

PubMed

Silvestre, Jason; Serletti, Joseph M; Chang, Benjamin

2017-05-01

Operative experience in aesthetic surgery is an important issue affecting plastic surgery residents. This study addresses the variability of aesthetic surgery experience during plastic surgery residency. National operative case logs of chief residents in independent/combined and integrated plastic surgery residency programs were analyzed (2011-2015). Fold differences between the bottom and top 10th percentiles of residents were calculated for each aesthetic procedure category and training model. The number of residents not achieving case minimums was also calculated. Case logs of 818 plastic surgery residents were analyzed. There was marked variability in craniofacial (range, 6.0-15.0), breast (range, 2.4-5.9), trunk/extremity (range, 3.0-16.0), and miscellaneous (range, 2.7-22.0) procedure categories. In 2015, the bottom 10th percentile of integrated and independent/combined residents did not achieve case minimums for botulinum toxin and dermal fillers. Case minimums were achieved for the other aesthetic procedure categories for all graduating years. Significant variability persists for many aesthetic procedure categories during plastic surgery residency training. Greater efforts may be needed to improve the aesthetic surgery experience of plastic surgery residents. © 2016 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com

Evolution and distribution of the coregonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Stanford H.

1957-01-01

Increased knowledge of the morphological and physiological plasticity of the coregonids has minimized the significance of conflicting morphological data that have retarded the development of an evolutionary theory. Of the four phyletic lines recognized through worldwide studies,Coregonus originated in the lake and stream area of northwest Eurasia, Stenodus andProsopium evolved in the rivers of Siberia and northwest America respectively, and Leucichthysbecame differentiated in the lake-studded area of northeast America. Isolation and range extension were facilitated by events of the Pleistocene epoch. Inter-continental exchange most likely took place in the Bering Strait region. Representatives of each group in its area of origin are highly variable. Range extensions of each group are characterized by lesser morphological variability and at the extremes only one or two relatively stable species remain.

Early MAVEN Deep Dip campaign reveals thermosphere and ionosphere variability.

PubMed

Bougher, S; Jakosky, B; Halekas, J; Grebowsky, J; Luhmann, J; Mahaffy, P; Connerney, J; Eparvier, F; Ergun, R; Larson, D; McFadden, J; Mitchell, D; Schneider, N; Zurek, R; Mazelle, C; Andersson, L; Andrews, D; Baird, D; Baker, D N; Bell, J M; Benna, M; Brain, D; Chaffin, M; Chamberlin, P; Chaufray, J-Y; Clarke, J; Collinson, G; Combi, M; Crary, F; Cravens, T; Crismani, M; Curry, S; Curtis, D; Deighan, J; Delory, G; Dewey, R; DiBraccio, G; Dong, C; Dong, Y; Dunn, P; Elrod, M; England, S; Eriksson, A; Espley, J; Evans, S; Fang, X; Fillingim, M; Fortier, K; Fowler, C M; Fox, J; Gröller, H; Guzewich, S; Hara, T; Harada, Y; Holsclaw, G; Jain, S K; Jolitz, R; Leblanc, F; Lee, C O; Lee, Y; Lefevre, F; Lillis, R; Livi, R; Lo, D; Ma, Y; Mayyasi, M; McClintock, W; McEnulty, T; Modolo, R; Montmessin, F; Morooka, M; Nagy, A; Olsen, K; Peterson, W; Rahmati, A; Ruhunusiri, S; Russell, C T; Sakai, S; Sauvaud, J-A; Seki, K; Steckiewicz, M; Stevens, M; Stewart, A I F; Stiepen, A; Stone, S; Tenishev, V; Thiemann, E; Tolson, R; Toublanc, D; Vogt, M; Weber, T; Withers, P; Woods, T; Yelle, R

2015-11-06

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission, during the second of its Deep Dip campaigns, made comprehensive measurements of martian thermosphere and ionosphere composition, structure, and variability at altitudes down to ~130 kilometers in the subsolar region. This altitude range contains the diffusively separated upper atmosphere just above the well-mixed atmosphere, the layer of peak extreme ultraviolet heating and primary reservoir for atmospheric escape. In situ measurements of the upper atmosphere reveal previously unmeasured populations of neutral and charged particles, the homopause altitude at approximately 130 kilometers, and an unexpected level of variability both on an orbit-to-orbit basis and within individual orbits. These observations help constrain volatile escape processes controlled by thermosphere and ionosphere structure and variability. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

2012-04-01

Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

Vertebral deformities and fractures are associated with MRI and pQCT measures obtained at the distal tibia and radius of postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Rajapakse, C. S.; Phillips, E. A.; Sun, W.; Wald, M. J.; Magland, J. F.; Snyder, P. J.; Wehrli, F. W.

2016-01-01

Summary We investigated the association of postmenopausal vertebral deformities and fractures with bone parameters derived from distal extremities using MRI and pQCT. Distal extremity measures showed variable degrees of association with vertebral deformities and fractures, highlighting the systemic nature of postmenopausal bone loss. Introduction Prevalent vertebral deformities and fractures are known to predict incident further fractures. However, the association of distal extremity measures and vertebral deformities in postmenopausal women has not been fully established. Methods This study involved 98 postmenopausal women (age range 60–88 years, mean 70 years) with DXA BMD T-scores at either the hip or spine in the range of −1.5 to −3.5. Wedge, biconcavity, and crush deformities were computed on the basis of spine MRI. Vertebral fractures were assessed using Eastell's criterion. Distal tibia and radius stiffness was computed using MRI-based finite element analysis. BMD at the distal extremities were obtained using pQCT. Results Several distal extremity MRI and pQCT measures showed negative association with vertebral deformity on the basis of single parameter correlation (r up to 0.67) and two-parameter regression (r up to 0.76) models involving MRI stiffness and pQCT BMD. Subjects who had at least one prevalent vertebral fracture showed decreased MRI stiffness (up to 17.9 %) and pQCT density (up to 34.2 %) at the distal extremities compared to the non-fracture group. DXA lumbar spine BMD T-score was not associated with vertebral deformities. Conclusions The association between vertebral deformities and distal extremity measures supports the notion of postmenopausal osteoporosis as a systemic phenomenon. PMID:24221453

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Consequences of environmental and biological variances for range margins: a spatially explicit theoretical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.; DeRose, R. J.; Bekker, M. F.

2016-12-01

The consequences of increasing climatic variance while including variability among individuals and populations are explored for range margins of species with a spatially explicit simulation. The model has a single environmental gradient and a single species then extended to two species. Species response to the environment is a Gaussian function with a peak of 1.0 at their peak fitness on the gradient. The variance in the environment is taken from the total variance in the tree ring series of 399 individuals of Pinus edulis in FIA plots in the western USA. The variability is increased by a multiplier of the standard deviation for various doubling times. The variance of individuals in the simulation is drawn from these same series. Inheritance of individual variability is based on the geographic locations of the individuals. The variance for P. edulis is recomputed as time-dependent conditional standard deviations using the GARCH procedure. Establishment and mortality are simulated in a Monte Carlo process with individual variance. Variance for P. edulis does not show a consistent pattern of heteroscedasticity. An obvious result is that increasing variance has deleterious effects on species persistence because extreme events that result in extinctions cannot be balanced by positive anomalies, but even less extreme negative events cannot be balanced by positive anomalies because of biological and spatial constraints. In the two species model the superior competitor is more affected by increasing climatic variance because its response function is steeper at the point of intersection with the other species and so the uncompensated effects of negative anomalies are greater for it. These theoretical results can guide the anticipated need to mitigate the effects of increasing climatic variability on P. edulis range margins. The trailing edge, here subject to increasing drought stress with increasing temperatures, will be more affected by negative anomalies.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

2017-06-01

Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

2008-12-01

Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring, might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be expected.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

Patterns of Weight Control Behavior among 15 year old Girls

PubMed Central

Balantekin, Katherine N.; Birch, Leann L.; Savage, Jennifer S.

2015-01-01

Objective The objectives were to identify and predict patterns of weight control behavior in 15 year old (yo) girls and to examine weight control group differences in energy intake. Method Subjects included 166 girls assessed every 2 years (ys) from age 5 to 15. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterns of weight control behaviors. Antecedent variables (e.g. inhibitory control at 7ys), and concurrent variables (e.g. BMI and dietary intake at 15ys) were included as predictors. Assessments were a combination of survey, interview, and laboratory measures. Results LCA identified four classes of weight control behaviors, Non-dieters (26%), and three dieting groups: Lifestyle (16%), Dieters (43%), and Extreme Dieters (17%). Levels of restraint, weight concerns, and dieting frequency increased across groups, from Non-dieters to Extreme Dieters. BMI at 5ys and inhibitory control at 7ys predicted weight control group at 15ys; e.g. with every one-point decrease in inhibitory control, girls were twice as likely to be Extreme Dieters than Non-dieters. Girls in the Extreme Dieters group were mostly classified as under-reporters, and had the lowest self-reported intake, but ate significantly more in the laboratory. Discussion Among 15yo girls, “dieting” includes a range of both healthy and unhealthy behaviors. Risk factors for membership in a weight control groups are present as early as 5ys. Patterns of intake in the laboratory support the view that lower reported energy intake by Extreme Dieters is likely due under-reporting as an intent to decrease intake, not actual decreased intake. PMID:26284953

Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): Overview of Science Objectives, Instrument Design, Data Products, and Model Developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, T. N.; Eparvier, F. G.; Hock, R.; Jones, A. R.; Woodraska, D.; Judge, D.; Didkovsky, L.; Lean, J.; Mariska, J.; Warren, H.;

Statistical downscaling modeling with quantile regression using lasso to estimate extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santri, Dewi; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

2016-02-01

Rainfall is one of the climatic elements with high diversity and has many negative impacts especially extreme rainfall. Therefore, there are several methods that required to minimize the damage that may occur. So far, Global circulation models (GCM) are the best method to forecast global climate changes include extreme rainfall. Statistical downscaling (SD) is a technique to develop the relationship between GCM output as a global-scale independent variables and rainfall as a local- scale response variable. Using GCM method will have many difficulties when assessed against observations because GCM has high dimension and multicollinearity between the variables. The common method that used to handle this problem is principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression. The new method that can be used is lasso. Lasso has advantages in simultaneuosly controlling the variance of the fitted coefficients and performing automatic variable selection. Quantile regression is a method that can be used to detect extreme rainfall in dry and wet extreme. Objective of this study is modeling SD using quantile regression with lasso to predict extreme rainfall in Indramayu. The results showed that the estimation of extreme rainfall (extreme wet in January, February and December) in Indramayu could be predicted properly by the model at quantile 90th.

Extreme intrafamilial variability of Saudi brothers with primary hyperoxaluria type 1.

PubMed

Alfadhel, Majid; Alhasan, Khalid A; Alotaibi, Mohammed; Al Fakeeh, Khalid

2012-01-01

Primary hyperoxaluria type 1 (PH1) is characterized by progressive renal insufficiency culminating in end-stage renal disease, and a wide range of clinical features related to systemic oxalosis in different organs. It is caused by autosomal recessive deficiency of alanine:glyoxylate aminotransferase due to a defect in AGXT gene. Two brothers (one 6 months old; the other 2 years old) presented with acute renal failure and urinary tract infection respectively. PH1 was confirmed by high urinary oxalate level, demonstration of oxalate crystals in bone biopsy, and pathogenic homozygous known AGXT gene mutation. Despite the same genetic background, same sex, and shared environment, the outcome of the two siblings differs widely. While one of them died earlier with end-stage renal disease and multiorgan failure caused by systemic oxalosis, the older brother is pyridoxine responsive with normal development and renal function. Clinicians should be aware of extreme intrafamilial variability of PH1 and international registries are needed to characterize the genotype-phenotype correlation in such disorder.

Extremal optimization for Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boettcher, S.

2005-08-01

Extremal Optimization (EO), a new local search heuristic, is used to approximate ground states of the mean-field spin glass model introduced by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick. The implementation extends the applicability of EO to systems with highly connected variables. Approximate ground states of sufficient accuracy and with statistical significance are obtained for systems with more than N=1000 variables using ±J bonds. The data reproduces the well-known Parisi solution for the average ground state energy of the model to about 0.01%, providing a high degree of confidence in the heuristic. The results support to less than 1% accuracy rational values of ω=2/3 for the finite-size correction exponent, and of ρ=3/4 for the fluctuation exponent of the ground state energies, neither one of which has been obtained analytically yet. The probability density function for ground state energies is highly skewed and identical within numerical error to the one found for Gaussian bonds. But comparison with infinite-range models of finite connectivity shows that the skewness is connectivity-dependent.

Testing a fall risk model for injection drug users.

PubMed

Pieper, Barbara; Templin, Thomas N; Goldberg, Allon

2012-01-01

Fall risk is a critical component of clinical assessment and has not been examined for persons who have injected illicit drugs and are aging. The aim of this study was to test and develop the Fall Risk Model for Injection Drug Users by examining the relationships among injection drug use, chronic venous insufficiency, lower extremity impairments (i.e., decreased ankle range of motion, reduced calf muscle endurance, and leg pain), age and other covariates, and the Tinetti balance and gait total score as a measure of fall risk. A cross-sectional comparative design was used with four crossed factors. Standardized instruments were used to assess the variables. Moderated multiple regression with linear and quadratic trends in age was used to examine the nature of the relationship between the Tinetti balance and gait total and age and the potential moderating role of injection drug use. A prespecified series of models was tested. Participants (n = 713) were men (46.9%) and women with a mean age of 46.26 years and primarily African American (61.7%) in methadone treatment centers. The fall risk of a 48-year-old leg injector was comparable with the fall risk of a 69-year-old who had not injected drugs. Variables were added to the model sequentially, resulting in some lost significance of some when they were explained by subsequent variables. Final significant variables in the model were employment status, number of comorbidities, ankle range of motion, leg pain, and calf muscle endurance. Fall risk was associated with route of drug use. Lower extremity impairments accounted for the effects of injection drug use and chronic venous insufficiency on risk for falls. Further understanding of fall risk in injection users is necessary as they age, attempt to work, and participate in activities.

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Upland Vegetation in the Blue Mountains [Chapter 6].

Treesearch

Becky K. Kerns; David C. Powell; Sabine Mellmann-Brown; Gunnar Carnwath; John Kim

2017-01-01

The Blue Mountains ecoregion (BME) extends from the Ochoco Mountains in central Oregon to Hells Canyon of the Snake River in extreme northeastern Oregon and adjacent Idaho, and then north to the deeply carved canyons and basalt rimrock of southeastern Washington (see fig. 1.1 in chapter 1). The BME consists of a series of mountain ranges occurring in a southwest to...

A parametric study of planform and aeroelastic effects on aerodynamic center, alpha- and q-stability derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roskam, J.; Lan, C.

1973-01-01

Summarized are the aerodynamic center, alpha and q- aeroelastic effects on fighter-type aircraft in the 18,700 N gross range. The results indicate that with proper tailoring of planform (fixed or variable sweep), stiffner and elastic axis location it is possible to minimize trim requirements between selected extreme conditions. The inertial effects were found to be small for this class of aircraft.

The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

2018-01-01

Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

Extreme Response Style and the Measurement of Intra-Individual Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deng, Sien

2017-01-01

Psychologists have become increasingly interested in the intra-individual variability of psychological measures as a meaningful distinguishing characteristic of persons. Assessments of intra-individual variability are frequently based on the repeated administration of self-report rating scale instruments, and extreme response style (ERS) has the…

Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutschick, V. P.

2010-12-01

Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning immediately. Massive dieoff of conifers in the US Southwest, an extreme event driven by a remarkably uncommon co-occurrence of high temperature, drought, and long active season for insects

Decreasing spatial variability in precipitation extremes in southwestern China and the local/large-scale influencing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Sun, Alex

2015-07-01

Climate extremes can cause devastating damage to human society and ecosystems. Recent studies have drawn many conclusions about trends in climate extremes, but few have focused on quantitative analysis of their spatial variability and underlying mechanisms. By using the techniques of overlapping moving windows, the Mann-Kendall trend test, correlation, and stepwise regression, this study examined the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation extremes and investigated the potential key factors influencing this variation in southwestern (SW) China, a globally important biodiversity hot spot and climate-sensitive region. Results showed that the changing trends of precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform, but the spatial variability of these precipitation extremes decreased from 1959 to 2012. Further analysis found that atmospheric circulations rather than local factors (land cover, topographic conditions, etc.) were the main cause of such precipitation extremes. This study suggests that droughts or floods may become more homogenously widespread throughout SW China. Hence, region-wide assessments and coordination are needed to help mitigate the economic and ecological impacts.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

Towards a Unified Framework in Hydroclimate Extremes Prediction in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.; Zarekarizi, M.; Bracken, C.

2016-12-01

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of hydroclimate extremes are of paramount importance in disaster mitigation and emergency management. The IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters emphasizes that the global warming would change the frequency, severity, and spatial pattern of extremes. In addition to climate change, land use and land cover changes also influence the extreme characteristics at regional scale. Therefore, natural variability and anthropogenic changes to the hydroclimate system result in nonstationarity in hydroclimate variables. In this presentation recent advancements in developing and using Bayesian approaches to account for non-stationarity in hydroclimate extremes are discussed. Also, implications of these approaches in flood frequency analysis, treatment of spatial dependence, the impact of large-scale climate variability, the selection of cause-effect covariates, with quantification of model errors in extreme prediction is explained. Within this framework, the applicability and usefulness of the ensemble data assimilation for extreme flood predictions is also introduced. Finally, a practical and easy to use approach for better communication with decision-makers and emergency managers is presented.

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure. PMID:24455132

Upper-Extremity Dual-Task Function: An Innovative Method to Assess Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults.

PubMed

Toosizadeh, Nima; Najafi, Bijan; Reiman, Eric M; Mager, Reine M; Veldhuizen, Jaimeson K; O'Connor, Kathy; Zamrini, Edward; Mohler, Jane

2016-01-01

Difficulties in orchestrating simultaneous tasks (i.e., dual-tasking) have been associated with cognitive impairments in older adults. Gait tests have been commonly used as the motor task component for dual-task assessments; however, many older adults have mobility impairments or there is a lack of space in busy clinical settings. We assessed an upper-extremity function (UEF) test as an alternative motor task to study the dual-task motor performance in older adults. Older adults (≥65 years) were recruited, and cognitive ability was measured using the Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA). Participants performed repetitive elbow flexion with their maximum pace, once single-task, and once while counting backward by one (dual-task). Single- and dual-task gait tests were also performed with normal speed. Three-dimensional kinematics was measured both from upper-extremity and lower-extremity using wearable sensors to determine UEF and gait parameters. Parameters were compared between the cognitively impaired and healthy groups using analysis of variance tests, while controlling for age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). Correlations between UEF and gait parameters for dual-task and dual-task cost were assessed using linear regression models. Sixty-seven older adults were recruited (age = 83 ± 10 years). Based on MoCA, 10 (15%) were cognitively impaired. While no significant differences were observed in the single-task condition, within the dual-task condition, the cognitively impaired group showed significantly less arm flexion speed (62%, d = 1.51, p = 0.02) and range of motion (27%, d = 0.93, p = 0.04), and higher speed variability (88%, d = 1.82, p < 0.0001) compared to the cognitively intact group, when adjusted with age, gender, and BMI. Significant correlations were observed between UEF speed parameters and gait stride velocity for dual-task condition (r = 0.55, p < 0.0001) and dual-task cost (r = 0.28, p = 0.03). We introduced a novel test for assessing dual-task performance in older adults that lasts 20 s and is based on upper-extremity function. Our results confirm significant associations between upper-extremity speed, range of motion, and speed variability with both the MoCA score and the gait performance within the dual-task condition.

Upper-Extremity Dual-Task Function: An Innovative Method to Assess Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Toosizadeh, Nima; Najafi, Bijan; Reiman, Eric M.; Mager, Reine M.; Veldhuizen, Jaimeson K.; O’Connor, Kathy; Zamrini, Edward; Mohler, Jane

2016-01-01

Background: Difficulties in orchestrating simultaneous tasks (i.e., dual-tasking) have been associated with cognitive impairments in older adults. Gait tests have been commonly used as the motor task component for dual-task assessments; however, many older adults have mobility impairments or there is a lack of space in busy clinical settings. We assessed an upper-extremity function (UEF) test as an alternative motor task to study the dual-task motor performance in older adults. Methods: Older adults (≥65 years) were recruited, and cognitive ability was measured using the Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA). Participants performed repetitive elbow flexion with their maximum pace, once single-task, and once while counting backward by one (dual-task). Single- and dual-task gait tests were also performed with normal speed. Three-dimensional kinematics was measured both from upper-extremity and lower-extremity using wearable sensors to determine UEF and gait parameters. Parameters were compared between the cognitively impaired and healthy groups using analysis of variance tests, while controlling for age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). Correlations between UEF and gait parameters for dual-task and dual-task cost were assessed using linear regression models. Results: Sixty-seven older adults were recruited (age = 83 ± 10 years). Based on MoCA, 10 (15%) were cognitively impaired. While no significant differences were observed in the single-task condition, within the dual-task condition, the cognitively impaired group showed significantly less arm flexion speed (62%, d = 1.51, p = 0.02) and range of motion (27%, d = 0.93, p = 0.04), and higher speed variability (88%, d = 1.82, p < 0.0001) compared to the cognitively intact group, when adjusted with age, gender, and BMI. Significant correlations were observed between UEF speed parameters and gait stride velocity for dual-task condition (r = 0.55, p < 0.0001) and dual-task cost (r = 0.28, p = 0.03). Conclusion: We introduced a novel test for assessing dual-task performance in older adults that lasts 20 s and is based on upper-extremity function. Our results confirm significant associations between upper-extremity speed, range of motion, and speed variability with both the MoCA score and the gait performance within the dual-task condition. PMID:27458374

Can benthic foraminifera be used as bio-indicators of pollution in areas with a wide range of physicochemical variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Maria Virgínia Alves; Pinto, Anita Fernandes Souza; Frontalini, Fabrizio; da Fonseca, Maria Clara Machado; Terroso, Denise Lara; Laut, Lazaro Luiz Mattos; Zaaboub, Noureddine; da Conceição Rodrigues, Maria Antonieta; Rocha, Fernando

2016-12-01

The Ria de Aveiro, a lagoon located in the NW coast of Portugal, presents a wide range of changes to the natural hydrodynamical and physicochemical conditions induced for instance by works of port engineering and pollution. In order to evaluate the response of living benthic foraminifera to the fluctuations in physicochemical parameters and pollution (metals and TOC), eight sediment samples were collected from canals and salt pans within the Aveiro City, in four different sampling events. During the sampling events, salinity showed the most significant fluctuations among the physicochemical parameters with the maximum range of variation at Troncalhada and Santiago salt pans. Species such as Haynesina germanica, Trochammina inflata and Entzia macrescens were found inhabiting these hypersaline environments with the widest fluctuations of physicochemical parameters. In contrast, Ammonia tepida dominated zones with high concentrations of metals and organic matter and in lower salinity waters. Parameters related to benthic foraminiferal assemblages (i.e., diversity and evenness) were found to significantly decline in stations polluted by metals and characterized by higher TOC content. Foraminiferal density reduced significantly in locations with a wide range of physicochemical temporal variability. This work shows that, even under extreme conditions caused by highly variable physicochemical parameters, benthic foraminiferal assemblages might be used as valuable bioindicators of environmental stress.

A comparison of gait biomechanics of flip-flops, sandals, barefoot and shoes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiuli; Paquette, Max R; Zhang, Songning

2013-11-06

Flip-flops and sandals are popular choices of footwear due to their convenience. However, the effects of these types of footwear on lower extremity biomechanics are still poorly understood. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate differences in ground reaction force (GRF), center of pressure (COP) and lower extremity joint kinematic and kinetic variables during level-walking in flip-flops, sandals and barefoot compared to running shoes. Ten healthy males performed five walking trials in the four footwear conditions at 1.3 m/s. Three-dimensional GRF and kinematic data were simultaneously collected. A smaller loading rate of the 1st peak vertical GRF and peak propulsive GRF and greater peak dorsiflexion moment in early stance were found in shoes compared to barefoot, flip-flops and sandals. Barefoot walking yielded greater mediolateral COP displacement, flatter foot contact angle, increased ankle plantarflexion contact angle, and smaller knee flexion contact angle and range of motion compared to all other footwear. The results from this study indicate that barefoot, flip-flops and sandals produced different peak GRF variables and ankle moment compared to shoes while all footwear yield different COP and ankle and knee kinematics compared to barefoot. The findings may be helpful to researchers and clinicians in understanding lower extremity mechanics of open-toe footwear.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

EFFECT OF INTENSE FUNCTIONAL TASK TRAINING UPON TEMPORAL STRUCTURE OF VARIABILITY OF UPPER EXTREMITY POST STROKE

PubMed Central

Sethi, Amit; Davis, Sandra; McGuirk, Theresa; Patterson, Tara S.; Richards, Lorie G.

2012-01-01

Study Design Quasi-experimental design Introduction Although the effectiveness of constraint induced movement therapy (CIMT) in upper extremity (UE) rehabilitation post stroke is well known, the efficacy of CIMT to enhance the temporal structure of variability in upper extremity movement is not known. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate whether CIMT could enhance temporal structure of variability in upper extremity movement in individuals with chronic stroke. Methods Six participants with chronic stroke underwent CIMT for 4 hours/day for 2 weeks. Participants performed three trials of functional reach-to-grasp before and after CIMT. Temporal structure of variability was determined by calculating approximate entropy (ApEn) in shoulder, elbow and wrist flexion/extension joint angles. Results ApEn increased post CIMT, however, statistical significance was not achieved (p > 0.0167). Conclusion Future studies with larger sample size are warranted to investigate the effect of CIMT upon temporal structure of variability in UE movement. PMID:23084461

A Neuroscience Approach to Optimizing Brain Resources for Human Performance in Extreme Environments

PubMed Central

Paulus, Martin P.; Potterat, Eric G.; Taylor, Marcus K.; Van Orden, Karl F.; Bauman, James; Momen, Nausheen; Padilla, Genieleah A.; Swain, Judith L.

2009-01-01

Extreme environments requiring optimal cognitive and behavioral performance occur in a wide variety of situations ranging from complex combat operations to elite athletic competitions. Although a large literature characterizes psychological and other aspects of individual differences in performances in extreme environments, virtually nothing is known about the underlying neural basis for these differences. This review summarizes the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral consequences of exposure to extreme environments, discusses predictors of performance, and builds a case for the use of neuroscience approaches to quantify and understand optimal cognitive and behavioral performance. Extreme environments are defined as an external context that exposes individuals to demanding psychological and/or physical conditions, and which may have profound effects on cognitive and behavioral performance. Examples of these types of environments include combat situations, Olympic-level competition, and expeditions in extreme cold, at high altitudes, or in space. Optimal performance is defined as the degree to which individuals achieve a desired outcome when completing goal-oriented tasks. It is hypothesized that individual variability with respect to optimal performance in extreme environments depends on a well “contextualized” internal body state that is associated with an appropriate potential to act. This hypothesis can be translated into an experimental approach that may be useful for quantifying the degree to which individuals are particularly suited to performing optimally in demanding environments. PMID:19447132

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

Upper-arm anthropometry: an alternative indicator of nutritional health to body mass index in unilateral lower-extremity amputees?

PubMed

Miller, Michelle; Wong, Wing Ki; Wu, Jing; Cavenett, Sally; Daniels, Lynne; Crotty, Maria

2008-10-01

To evaluate the utility of body mass index (BMI) and corrected-arm-muscle area (CAMA) as measures of nutritional health for lower-limb amputees attending prosthetics clinics. Cross-sectional study. Prosthetics clinic in Australia. Unilateral lower-extremity amputees (N=58; age range, 21-91y; 37 transtibial, 21 transfemoral) attending a regional prosthetics clinic between May and November 2003. Not applicable. Weight (without prosthesis), corrected and uncorrected for the amputated limb was used with height estimated from knee height to calculate corrected BMI (cBMI) and uncorrected BMI (uBMI). CAMA was calculated using the mean of triplicate mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) and triceps skinfold thickness (TST) measurements. The Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and Assessment of Quality of Life were administered according to recommended protocols. The Pearson correlation was used to determine the strength and significance of associations between variables, and bivariate regression analyses were performed to determine whether an association existed between the nutritional variables (BMI, CAMA, MNA) and quality of life (QOL). There were no statistically significant differences in the measures of nutritional health according to site (transtibial, transfemoral) of amputation. MUAC, TST, and CAMA all showed moderate to high positive correlations (r range, .541-.782) with both cBMI and uBMI. The strength of the relationship between the MNA and cBMI/uBMI was weaker (r=.383, r=.380, respectively) but remained positive and statistically significant (P=.003). QOL was not associated with cBMI or uBMI but was related to CAMA (beta=-.132; P=.030) and MNA (beta=-.561; P=.017). For persons with unilateral lower-extremity amputation, measurement of upper-arm anthropometry may be a more useful indicator of nutritional health and its consequences than BMI.

Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

PubMed

McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

2017-01-01

There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in mainland Portugal and its relationships with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espírito Santo, Fátima; de Lima, Isabel P.; Silva, Álvaro; Pires, Vanda; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2014-05-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their persistence are known to drive inter-annual variability of precipitation in Europe, although depending on geographical location; this includes precipitation extremes and their trends. The vast range of time and space scales involved leads sometimes to precipitation deficits and surpluses which might affect in a different way the society, the environment and the economy at the local and regional scales, depending on specific conditions. In addition, changes in the climate are expected to affect the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events that might influence significantly the distribution, availability and sustainability of regional water resources. The location of mainland Portugal on the Northeast Atlantic region, in South-western Europe, together with other geographical features, makes this territory vulnerable to extreme dry/wet hydro-meteorological events, driven by the strong variability in precipitation. In our study we discuss, for this territory, the relation between the spatio-temporal variability in those events, including their persistence at different scales, and the variability in several modes of low frequency variability; special attention is dedicated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). Some of these dry/wet episodes affect different aspects of the hydrologic cycle and are likely to lead to drought and soil wetness/saturation conditions that can enhance flood events. Such episodes were categorized here using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated at short (3 and 6-month) and long (12 and 24-month) time scales from monthly precipitation data recorded in the 1941-2012 period (72 years) at 50 precipitation stations scattered across the study area. Moreover, because SPI is a normalized index, it is also suitable to provide spatial representations of these conditions, allowing the comparison between areas within the same region. Thus, indices were interpolated for the whole territory using deterministic and geostatistical methods, and the zonal statistics results were mapped; the spatial interpolation, analysis and mapping were implemented in ArcGIS. Results confirm that the precipitation in this region is strongly influenced by the NAO and SCAND, in particular in the wettest months. Moreover, the annual SPI shows a significant increase in the extent of dry extremes and a non-significant decrease in the extent of wet extremes. For shorter time scales, the behaviour depends on the season. We discuss the observed SPI trends and the uncertainties for the precipitation regime in the southern and western parts of the Iberian Peninsula, which includes mainland Portugal. Results underline potential applications of SPI for water resources management, which is discussed in the context of the regional hydrological conditions and increasing demand for water for different uses.

MPATHav: A software prototype for multiobjective routing in transportation risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganter, J.H.; Smith, J.D.

Most routing problems depend on several important variables: transport distance, population exposure, accident rate, mandated roads (e.g., HM-164 regulations), and proximity to emergency response resources are typical. These variables may need to be minimized or maximized, and often are weighted. `Objectives` to be satisfied by the analysis are thus created. The resulting problems can be approached by combining spatial analysis techniques from geographic information systems (GIS) with multiobjective analysis techniques from the field of operations research (OR); we call this hybrid multiobjective spatial analysis` (MOSA). MOSA can be used to discover, display, and compare a range of solutions that satisfymore » a set of objectives to varying degrees. For instance, a suite of solutions may include: one solution that provides short transport distances, but at a cost of high exposure; another solution that provides low exposure, but long distances; and a range of solutions between these two extremes.« less

Osteogenesis imperfecta in childhood: treatment strategies.

PubMed

Engelbert, R H; Pruijs, H E; Beemer, F A; Helders, P J

1998-12-01

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a skeletal disorder of remarkable clinical variability characterized by bone fragility, osteopenia, variable degrees of short stature, and progressive skeletal deformities. Additional clinical manifestations such as blue sclerae, dentinogenesis imperfecta, joint laxity, and maturity onset deafness are described in the literature. OI occurs in about 1 in 20,000 births and is caused by quantitative and qualitative defects in the synthesis of collagen I. Depending on the severity of the disease, a large impact on motor development, range of joint motion, muscle strength, and functional ability may occur. Treatment strategies should primarily focus on the improvement of functional ability and the adoption of compensatory strategies, rather than merely improving range of joint motion and muscle strength. Surgical treatment of the extremities may be indicated to stabilize the long bones to optimize functional ability and walking capacity. Surgical treatment of the spine may be indicated in patients with progressive spinal deformity and in those with symptomatic basilar impression.

Subwavelength grating enabled on-chip ultra-compact optical true time delay line

PubMed Central

Wang, Junjia; Ashrafi, Reza; Adams, Rhys; Glesk, Ivan; Gasulla, Ivana; Capmany, José; Chen, Lawrence R.

2016-01-01

An optical true time delay line (OTTDL) is a basic photonic building block that enables many microwave photonic and optical processing operations. The conventional design for an integrated OTTDL that is based on spatial diversity uses a length-variable waveguide array to create the optical time delays, which can introduce complexities in the integrated circuit design. Here we report the first ever demonstration of an integrated index-variable OTTDL that exploits spatial diversity in an equal length waveguide array. The approach uses subwavelength grating waveguides in silicon-on-insulator (SOI), which enables the realization of OTTDLs having a simple geometry and that occupy a compact chip area. Moreover, compared to conventional wavelength-variable delay lines with a few THz operation bandwidth, our index-variable OTTDL has an extremely broad operation bandwidth practically exceeding several tens of THz, which supports operation for various input optical signals with broad ranges of central wavelength and bandwidth. PMID:27457024

Subwavelength grating enabled on-chip ultra-compact optical true time delay line.

PubMed

Wang, Junjia; Ashrafi, Reza; Adams, Rhys; Glesk, Ivan; Gasulla, Ivana; Capmany, José; Chen, Lawrence R

2016-07-26

An optical true time delay line (OTTDL) is a basic photonic building block that enables many microwave photonic and optical processing operations. The conventional design for an integrated OTTDL that is based on spatial diversity uses a length-variable waveguide array to create the optical time delays, which can introduce complexities in the integrated circuit design. Here we report the first ever demonstration of an integrated index-variable OTTDL that exploits spatial diversity in an equal length waveguide array. The approach uses subwavelength grating waveguides in silicon-on-insulator (SOI), which enables the realization of OTTDLs having a simple geometry and that occupy a compact chip area. Moreover, compared to conventional wavelength-variable delay lines with a few THz operation bandwidth, our index-variable OTTDL has an extremely broad operation bandwidth practically exceeding several tens of THz, which supports operation for various input optical signals with broad ranges of central wavelength and bandwidth.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Knowledge discovery and nonlinear modeling can complement climate model simulations for predictive insights about climate extremes and their impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.; Steinbach, M.; Kumar, V.

2009-12-01

The IPCC AR4 not only provided conclusive evidence about anticipated global warming at century scales, but also indicated with a high level of certainty that the warming is caused by anthropogenic emissions. However, an outstanding knowledge-gap is to develop credible projections of climate extremes and their impacts. Climate extremes are defined in this context as extreme weather and hydrological events, as well as changes in regional hydro-meteorological patterns, especially at decadal scales. While temperature extremes from climate models have relatively better skills, hydrological variables and their extremes have significant shortcomings. Credible projections about tropical storms, sea level rise, coastal storm surge, land glacier melts, and landslides remain elusive. The next generation of climate models is expected to have higher precision. However, their ability to provide more accurate projections of climate extremes remains to be tested. Projections of observed trends into the future may not be reliable in non-stationary environments like climate change, even though functional relationships derived from physics may hold. On the other hand, assessments of climate change impacts which are useful for stakeholders and policy makers depend critically on regional and decadal scale projections of climate extremes. Thus, climate impacts scientists often need to develop qualitative inferences about the not so-well predicted climate extremes based on insights from observations (e.g., increased hurricane intensity) or conceptual understanding (e.g., relation of wildfires to regional warming or drying and hurricanes to SST). However, neither conceptual understanding nor observed trends may be reliable when extrapolating in a non-stationary environment. These urgent societal priorities offer fertile grounds for nonlinear modeling and knowledge discovery approaches. Thus, qualitative inferences on climate extremes and impacts may be transformed into quantitative predictive insights based on a combination of hypothesis-guided data analysis and relatively hypothesis-free but data-guided discovery processes. The analysis and discovery approaches need to be cognizant of climate data characteristics like nonlinear processes, low-frequency variability, long-range spatial dependence and long-memory temporal processes; the value of physically-motivated conceptual understanding and functional associations; as well as possible thresholds and tipping points in the impacted natural, engineered or human systems. Case studies focusing on new methodologies as well as novel climate insights are discussed with a focus on stakeholder requirements.

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

VARIABLE AND EXTREME IRRADIATION CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM INFERRED FROM THE INITIAL ABUNDANCE OF {sup 10}Be IN ISHEYEVO CAIs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gounelle, Matthieu; Chaussidon, Marc; Rollion-Bard, Claire, E-mail: gounelle@mnhn.fr

2013-02-01

A search for short-lived {sup 10}Be in 21 calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) from Isheyevo, a rare CB/CH chondrite, showed that only 5 CAIs had {sup 10}B/{sup 11}B ratios higher than chondritic correlating with the elemental ratio {sup 9}Be/{sup 11}B, suggestive of in situ decay of this key short-lived radionuclide. The initial ({sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be){sub 0} ratios vary between {approx}10{sup -3} and {approx}10{sup -2} for CAI 411. The initial ratio of CAI 411 is one order of magnitude higher than the highest ratio found in CV3 CAIs, suggesting that the more likely origin of CAI 411 {sup 10}Be is early solar systemmore » irradiation. The low ({sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al){sub 0} [{<=} 8.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}] with which CAI 411 formed indicates that it was exposed to gradual flares with a proton fluence of a few 10{sup 19} protons cm{sup -2}, during the earliest phases of the solar system, possibly the infrared class 0. The irradiation conditions for other CAIs are less well constrained, with calculated fluences ranging between a few 10{sup 19} and 10{sup 20} protons cm{sup -2}. The variable and extreme value of the initial {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratios in carbonaceous chondrite CAIs is the reflection of the variable and extreme magnetic activity in young stars observed in the X-ray domain.« less

The Microphysical Structure of Extreme Precipitation as Inferred from Ground-Based Raindrop Spectra.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, Remko; Smith, James A.; Steiner, Matthias

2003-05-01

The controls on the variability of raindrop size distributions in extreme rainfall and the associated radar reflectivity-rain rate relationships are studied using a scaling-law formalism for the description of raindrop size distributions and their properties. This scaling-law formalism enables a separation of the effects of changes in the scale of the raindrop size distribution from those in its shape. Parameters controlling the scale and shape of the scaled raindrop size distribution may be related to the microphysical processes generating extreme rainfall. A global scaling analysis of raindrop size distributions corresponding to rain rates exceeding 100 mm h1, collected during the 1950s with the Illinois State Water Survey raindrop camera in Miami, Florida, reveals that extreme rain rates tend to be associated with conditions in which the variability of the raindrop size distribution is strongly number controlled (i.e., characteristic drop sizes are roughly constant). This means that changes in properties of raindrop size distributions in extreme rainfall are largely produced by varying raindrop concentrations. As a result, rainfall integral variables (such as radar reflectivity and rain rate) are roughly proportional to each other, which is consistent with the concept of the so-called equilibrium raindrop size distribution and has profound implications for radar measurement of extreme rainfall. A time series analysis for two contrasting extreme rainfall events supports the hypothesis that the variability of raindrop size distributions for extreme rain rates is strongly number controlled. However, this analysis also reveals that the actual shapes of the (measured and scaled) spectra may differ significantly from storm to storm. This implies that the exponents of power-law radar reflectivity-rain rate relationships may be similar, and close to unity, for different extreme rainfall events, but their prefactors may differ substantially. Consequently, there is no unique radar reflectivity-rain rate relationship for extreme rain rates, but the variability is essentially reduced to one free parameter (i.e., the prefactor). It is suggested that this free parameter may be estimated on the basis of differential reflectivity measurements in extreme rainfall.

Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

2013-12-01

Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5,35, growth range limits for corn), and the sum of growing degree days between 20°C and 22°C (GDD20,22, optimal growth range for corn). And the precipitation-based indices include: cumulative precipitation, consecutive dry days, and number of extreme precipitation events in June. As to the decadal trend analysis in climatic factors, Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test are used. In the U.S. Corn Belt, annual mean Tavg ranges from 5.7°C to 14.7°C, and annual cumulative precipitation ranges from 396 mm to 1,203 mm. According to the decadal trend of annual mean Tavg and annual cumulative precipitation, 30 stations (45%) demonstrate a warm and dry trend, and 28 stations demonstrate a warm and wet trend. In monthly scale, Jun mean Tmin presents the most significantly increasing trend, and no significant decreasing or zero trend is detected from 1981 to 2012. During the climatological corn growing season, BD ranges from 76 to 128 DOY, ED ranges from 276 to 316 DOY, and GSL ranges from 150 to 242 days. From 1981 to 2012, BD is significantly advanced at the rate of 1 to 8 DOY per decade, ED is significantly delayed at the rate of 1 to 5 per decade, and GSL is significantly prolonged at the rate of 1 to 11 days per decade.

Efficient Prediction of Low-Visibility Events at Airports Using Machine-Learning Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornejo-Bueno, L.; Casanova-Mateo, C.; Sanz-Justo, J.; Cerro-Prada, E.; Salcedo-Sanz, S.

2017-11-01

We address the prediction of low-visibility events at airports using machine-learning regression. The proposed model successfully forecasts low-visibility events in terms of the runway visual range at the airport, with the use of support-vector regression, neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme-learning machines) and Gaussian-process algorithms. We assess the performance of these algorithms based on real data collected at the Valladolid airport, Spain. We also propose a study of the atmospheric variables measured at a nearby tower related to low-visibility atmospheric conditions, since they are considered as the inputs of the different regressors. A pre-processing procedure of these input variables with wavelet transforms is also described. The results show that the proposed machine-learning algorithms are able to predict low-visibility events well. The Gaussian process is the best algorithm among those analyzed, obtaining over 98% of the correct classification rate in low-visibility events when the runway visual range is {>}1000 m, and about 80% under this threshold. The performance of all the machine-learning algorithms tested is clearly affected in extreme low-visibility conditions ({<}500 m). However, we show improved results of all the methods when data from a neighbouring meteorological tower are included, and also with a pre-processing scheme using a wavelet transform. Also presented are results of the algorithm performance in daytime and nighttime conditions, and for different prediction time horizons.

Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

2018-03-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

A participatory approach to the study of lifting demands and musculoskeletal symptoms among Hong Kong workers

PubMed Central

Yeung, S; Genaidy, A; Deddens, J; Shoaf, C; Leung, P

2003-01-01

Aims: To investigate the use of a worker based methodology to assess the physical stresses of lifting tasks on effort expended, and to associate this loading with musculoskeletal outcomes (MO). Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted on 217 male manual handling workers from the Hong Kong area. The effects of four lifting variables (weight of load, horizontal distance, twisting angle, and vertical travel distance) on effort were examined using a linguistic approach (that is, characterising variables in descriptors such as "heavy" for weight of load). The numerical interpretations of linguistic descriptors were established. In addition, the associations between on the job effort and MO were investigated for 10 body regions including the spine, and both upper and lower extremities. Results: MO were prevalent in multiple body regions (range 12–58%); effort was significantly associated with MO in 8 of 10 body regions (odds ratios with age adjusted ranged from 1.31 for low back to 1.71 for elbows and forearm). The lifting task variables had significant effects on effort, with the weight of load having twice the effect of other variables; each linguistic descriptor was better described by a range of numerical values rather than a single numerical value. Conclusions: The participatory worker based approach on musculoskeletal outcomes is a promising methodology. Further testing of this approach is recommended. PMID:14504360

Controlling the angle range in acoustic low-frequency forbidden transmission in solid-fluid superlattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sai; Xu, Bai-qiang; Cao, Wenwu

2018-03-01

We have investigated low-frequency forbidden transmission (LFT) of acoustic waves with frequency lower than the first Bragg bandgap in a solid-fluid superlattice (SFSL). LFT is formed when the acoustic planar wave impinges on the interface of a SFSL within a certain angle range. However, for the SFSL comprised of metallic material and water, the angle range of LFT is extremely narrow, which restricts its practical applications. The variation characteristics of the angle range have been comprehensively studied here by the control variable method. The results suggest that the filling ratio, layer number, wave velocity, and mass density of the constituent materials have a significant impact on the angle range. Based on our results, an effective strategy for obtaining LFT with a broad angle range is provided, which will be useful for potential applications of LFT in various devices, such as low frequency filters and subwavelength one-way diodes.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Testing the DSM-5 severity indicator for bulimia nervosa in a treatment-seeking sample.

PubMed

Dakanalis, Antonios; Clerici, Massimo; Riva, Giuseppe; Carrà, Giuseppe

2017-03-01

This study tested the new DSM-5 severity criterion for bulimia nervosa (BN) based on the frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors in a treatment-seeking sample. Participants were 345 adults with DSM-5 BN presenting for treatment. They were sub-grouped based on DSM-5 severity levels and compared on a range of variables of clinical interest and demographics. Based on DSM-5 severity definitions, 27.2 % of the sample was categorized with mild, 26.1 % with moderate, 24.9 % with severe, and 21.8 % with extreme severity of BN. Analyses revealed that the four (mild, moderate, severe, and extreme) severity groups of BN significantly differed from each other in eating disordered and body-related attitudes and behaviors, factors involved in the maintenance process of the disorder, comorbid psychiatric disorders, psychological distress, and psychosocial impairment (medium-to-large effect sizes). No significant between-group differences were observed in demographics, body mass index, or at the age when BN first occurred, lending some credence to recent suggestions that age-at-onset of BN may be more a disorder- than a severity-dependent variable. Collectively, our findings provide support for the severity indicator for BN introduced in the DSM-5 as a means of addressing heterogeneity and variability in the severity of the disorder.

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Extreme intrafamilial variability of Saudi brothers with primary hyperoxaluria type 1

PubMed Central

Alfadhel, Majid; Alhasan, Khalid A; Alotaibi, Mohammed; Al Fakeeh, Khalid

2012-01-01

Background Primary hyperoxaluria type 1 (PH1) is characterized by progressive renal insufficiency culminating in end-stage renal disease, and a wide range of clinical features related to systemic oxalosis in different organs. It is caused by autosomal recessive deficiency of alanine:glyoxylate aminotransferase due to a defect in AGXT gene. Case report Two brothers (one 6 months old; the other 2 years old) presented with acute renal failure and urinary tract infection respectively. PH1 was confirmed by high urinary oxalate level, demonstration of oxalate crystals in bone biopsy, and pathogenic homozygous known AGXT gene mutation. Despite the same genetic background, same sex, and shared environment, the outcome of the two siblings differs widely. While one of them died earlier with end-stage renal disease and multiorgan failure caused by systemic oxalosis, the older brother is pyridoxine responsive with normal development and renal function. Conclusion Clinicians should be aware of extreme intrafamilial variability of PH1 and international registries are needed to characterize the genotype-phenotype correlation in such disorder. PMID:22956877

Comparison of three-dimensional lower extremity running kinematics of young adult and elderly runners.

PubMed

Fukuchi, Reginaldo K; Duarte, Marcos

2008-11-01

The objective of this study was to compare the three-dimensional lower extremity running kinematics of young adult runners and elderly runners. Seventeen elderly adults (age 67-73 years) and 17 young adults (age 26-36 years) ran at 3.1 m x s(-1) on a treadmill while the movements of the lower extremity during the stance phase were recorded at 120 Hz using three-dimensional video. The three-dimensional kinematics of the lower limb segments and of the ankle and knee joints were determined, and selected variables were calculated to describe the movement. Our results suggest that elderly runners have a different movement pattern of the lower extremity from that of young adults during the stance phase of running. Compared with the young adults, the elderly runners had a substantial decrease in stride length (1.97 vs. 2.23 m; P = 0.01), an increase in stride frequency (1.58 vs. 1.37 Hz; P = 0.002), less knee flexion/extension range of motion (26 vs. 33 degrees ; P = 0.002), less tibial internal/external rotation range of motion (9 vs. 12 degrees ; P < 0.001), larger external rotation angle of the foot segment (toe-out angle) at the heel strike (-5.8 vs. -1.0 degrees ; P = 0.009), and greater asynchronies between the ankle and knee movements during running. These results may help to explain why elderly individuals could be more susceptible to running-related injuries.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Understanding the Impact of Extreme Temperature on Crop Production in Karnataka in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahato, S.; Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2017-12-01

The impact of extreme temperature on crop yield is seldom explored in work around climate change impact on agriculture. Further, these studies are restricted mainly to crops such as wheat and maize. Since different agro-climatic zones bear different crops and cropping patterns, it is important to explore the nature of the impact of changes in climate variables in agricultural systems under differential conditions. The study explores the effects of temperature rise on the major crops paddy, jowar, ragi and tur in the state of Karnataka of southern India. The choice of the unit of study to understand impact of climate variability on crop yields is largely restricted to availability of data for the unit. While, previous studies have dealt with this issue by replacing yield with NDVI at finer resolution, the use of an index in place of yield data has its limitations and may not reflect the true estimates. For this study, the unit considered is taluk, i.e. sub-district level. The crop yield for taluk is obtained between the year the 1995 to 2011 by aggregating point yield data from crop cutting experiments for each year across the taluks. The long term temperature data shows significantly increasing trend that ranges between 0.6 to 0.75 C across Karnataka. Further, the analysis suggests a warming trend in seasonal average temperature for Kharif and Rabi seasons across districts. The study also found that many districts exhibit the tendency of occurrence of extreme temperature days, which is of particular concern in terms of crop yield, since exposure of crops to extreme temperature has negative consequences for crop production and productivity. Using growing degree days GDD, extreme degree days EDD and total season rainfall as predictor variables, the fixed effect model shows that EDD is a more influential parameter as compared to GDD and rainfall. Also it has a statistically significant negative effect in most cases. Further, quantile regression was used to evaluate the robustness of the estimates of EDD in relation to crop yield. This showed the estimates to be robust across quantiles for most of the crops studied. Thus indicating a strong negative influence of exposure to extreme temperature on crop yield in the region.

X-ray and extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy on DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Victor, B. S.; Allen, S. L.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Magee, E. W.

2017-06-01

Two spectrometers were installed to measure tungsten emission in the core of DIII-D plasmas during a metal rings experimental campaign. The spectral range of the high-resolution (1340 spectral channels), variable-ruled grating X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (XEUS) extends from 10-71 dot A. The spectral range of the second spectrometer, the Long-Wavelength Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (LoWEUS), measures between 31-174 dot A. Three groups of tungsten lines were identified with XEUS: W38+-W45+ from 47-63 dot A, W27+-W35+ from 45-55 dot A, and W28+-W33+ from 16-30 dot A. Emission lines from tungsten charge states W28+, W43+, W44+, and W45+ are identified and the line amplitude is presented versus time. Peak emission of W43+-W45+ occurs between core Te=2.5-3 keV, and peak emission of W28+ occurs at core Te<=1.3 keV. One group of tungsten lines, W40+-W45+, between 120-140 dot A, was identified with LoWEUS. W43+-W45+ lines measured with LoWEUS track the sawtooth cycle. Sensitivity to the sawtooth cycle and the correlation of the peak emission with core electron temperature show that these spectrometers track the on-axis tungsten emission of DIII-D plasmas.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

Odessa Scientific School of Researchers of Variable Stars: from V.P.Tsesevich (1907-1983) to Our Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronov, I. L.

The biography of Vladimir Platonovich Tsesevich (11.11.1907 - 28.10.1983), a leader of the astronomy in Odessa from 1944 to 1983, is briefly reviewed, as well as the directions of study, mainly the highlights of the research of variable stars carried out by the members of the scientific school founded by him. The directions of these studies cover a very wide range of variability types - "magnetic" and "non-magnetic" cataclysmic variables, symbiotic, X-Ray and other interacting binaries, classical eclipsers and "extreme direct impactors", pulsating variables from DSct and RR through C and RV to SR and M. Improved algorithms and programs have been elaborated for statistically optimal phenomenological and physical modeling. Initially these studies in Odessa were inspired by ("with a capital letter") Vladimir Platonovich Tsesevich. who was a meticulous Scientist and brilliant Educator, thorough Author and the intelligibly explaining Popularizer, persevering Organizer and cheerful Joker - a true Professor and Teacher. He was the "Poet of the Starry Heavens".

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Analysis of walking variability through simultaneous evaluation of the head, lumbar, and lower-extremity acceleration in healthy youth

PubMed Central

Toda, Haruki; Nagano, Akinori; Luo, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to clarify whether walking speed affects acceleration variability of the head, lumbar, and lower extremity by simultaneously evaluating of acceleration. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty young individuals recruited from among the staff at Kurashiki Heisei Hospital participated in this study. Eight accelerometers were used to measure the head, lumbar and lower extremity accelerations. The participants were instructed to walk at five walking speeds prescribed by a metronome. Acceleration variability was assessed by a cross-correlation analysis normalized using z-transform in order to evaluate stride-to-stride variability. [Results] Vertical acceleration variability was the smallest in all body parts, and walking speed effect had laterality. Antero-posterior acceleration variability was significantly associated with walking speed at sites other than the head. Medio-lateral acceleration variability of the bilateral hip alone was smaller than the antero-posterior variability. [Conclusion] The findings of this study suggest that the effect of walking speed changes on the stride-to-stride acceleration variability was individual for each body parts, and differs among directions. PMID:27390419

Classification systems for lower extremity amputation prediction in subjects with active diabetic foot ulcer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Monteiro-Soares, M; Martins-Mendes, D; Vaz-Carneiro, A; Sampaio, S; Dinis-Ribeiro, M

2014-10-01

We systematically review the available systems used to classify diabetic foot ulcers in order to synthesize their methodological qualitative issues and accuracy to predict lower extremity amputation, as this may represent a critical point in these patients' care. Two investigators searched, in EBSCO, ISI, PubMed and SCOPUS databases, and independently selected studies published until May 2013 and reporting prognostic accuracy and/or reliability of specific systems for patients with diabetic foot ulcer in order to predict lower extremity amputation. We included 25 studies reporting a prevalence of lower extremity amputation between 6% and 78%. Eight different diabetic foot ulcer descriptions and seven prognostic stratification classification systems were addressed with a variable (1-9) number of factors included, specially peripheral arterial disease (n = 12) or infection at the ulcer site (n = 10) or ulcer depth (n = 10). The Meggitt-Wagner, S(AD)SAD and Texas University Classification systems were the most extensively validated, whereas ten classifications were derived or validated only once. Reliability was reported in a single study, and accuracy measures were reported in five studies with another eight allowing their calculation. Pooled accuracy ranged from 0.65 (for gangrene) to 0.74 (for infection). There are numerous classification systems for diabetic foot ulcer outcome prediction, but only few studies evaluated their reliability or external validity. Studies rarely validated several systems simultaneously and only a few reported accuracy measures. Further studies assessing reliability and accuracy of the available systems and their composing variables are needed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.

2017-12-01

Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability to climate model simulations in order to elucidate the mechanisms driving the changes in ENSO. The proposed research activities will shed light on the sensitivity of ENSO to external forcings, a highly critical issue given that climate model projections used for future climate projection do not agree if ENSO will strengthen or weaken as the Earth warms.

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

Synergy Effects in the Chemical Synthesis and Extensions of Multicomponent Reactions (MCRs)-The Low Energy Way to Ultra-Short Syntheses of Tailor-Made Molecules.

PubMed

Eckert, Heiner

2017-02-25

Several novel methods, catalysts and reagents have been developed to improve organic synthesis. Synergistic effects between reactions, reagents and catalysts can lead to minor heats of reaction and occur as an inherent result of multicomponent reactions (MCRs) and their extensions. They enable syntheses to be performed at a low energy level and the number of synthesis steps to be drastically reduced in comparison with 'classical' two-component reactions, fulfilling the rules of Green Chemistry . The very high potential for variability, diversity and complexity of MCRs additionally generates an extremely diverse range of products, thus bringing us closer to the aim of being able to produce tailor-made and extremely low-cost materials, drugs and compound libraries.

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

2015-03-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

A comparison of gait biomechanics of flip-flops, sandals, barefoot and shoes

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Flip-flops and sandals are popular choices of footwear due to their convenience. However, the effects of these types of footwear on lower extremity biomechanics are still poorly understood. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate differences in ground reaction force (GRF), center of pressure (COP) and lower extremity joint kinematic and kinetic variables during level-walking in flip-flops, sandals and barefoot compared to running shoes. Methods Ten healthy males performed five walking trials in the four footwear conditions at 1.3 m/s. Three-dimensional GRF and kinematic data were simultaneously collected. Results A smaller loading rate of the 1st peak vertical GRF and peak propulsive GRF and greater peak dorsiflexion moment in early stance were found in shoes compared to barefoot, flip-flops and sandals. Barefoot walking yielded greater mediolateral COP displacement, flatter foot contact angle, increased ankle plantarflexion contact angle, and smaller knee flexion contact angle and range of motion compared to all other footwear. Conclusions The results from this study indicate that barefoot, flip-flops and sandals produced different peak GRF variables and ankle moment compared to shoes while all footwear yield different COP and ankle and knee kinematics compared to barefoot. The findings may be helpful to researchers and clinicians in understanding lower extremity mechanics of open-toe footwear. PMID:24196492

Typical meteorological conditions associated with extreme nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution events over Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Manu Anna; Devasthale, Abhay

2017-10-01

Characterizing typical meteorological conditions associated with extreme pollution events helps to better understand the role of local meteorology in governing the transport and distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere. The knowledge of their co-variability could further help to evaluate and constrain chemistry transport models. Hence, in this study, we investigate the statistical linkages between extreme nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution events and meteorology over Scandinavia using observational and reanalysis data. It is observed that the south-westerly winds dominated during extreme events, accounting for 50-65 % of the total events depending on the season, while the second largest annual occurrence was from south-easterly winds, accounting for 17 % of total events. The specific humidity anomalies showed an influx of warmer and moisture-laden air masses over Scandinavia in the free troposphere. Two distinct modes in the persistency of circulation patterns are observed. The first mode lasts for 1-2 days, dominated by south-easterly winds that prevailed during 78 % of total extreme events in that mode, while the second mode lasted for 3-5 days, dominated by south-westerly winds that prevailed during 86 % of the events. The combined analysis of circulation patterns, their persistency, and associated changes in humidity and clouds suggests that NO2 extreme events over Scandinavia occur mainly due to long-range transport from the southern latitudes.

Occupancy in continuous habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2012-01-01

The probability that a site has at least one individual of a species ('occupancy') has come to be widely used as a state variable for animal population monitoring. The available statistical theory for estimation when detection is imperfect applies particularly to habitat patches or islands, although it is also used for arbitrary plots in continuous habitat. The probability that such a plot is occupied depends on plot size and home-range characteristics (size, shape and dispersion) as well as population density. Plot size is critical to the definition of occupancy as a state variable, but clear advice on plot size is missing from the literature on the design of occupancy studies. We describe models for the effects of varying plot size and home-range size on expected occupancy. Temporal, spatial, and species variation in average home-range size is to be expected, but information on home ranges is difficult to retrieve from species presence/absence data collected in occupancy studies. The effect of variable home-range size is negligible when plots are very large (>100 x area of home range), but large plots pose practical problems. At the other extreme, sampling of 'point' plots with cameras or other passive detectors allows the true 'proportion of area occupied' to be estimated. However, this measure equally reflects home-range size and density, and is of doubtful value for population monitoring or cross-species comparisons. Plot size is ill-defined and variable in occupancy studies that detect animals at unknown distances, the commonest example being unlimited-radius point counts of song birds. We also find that plot size is ill-defined in recent treatments of "multi-scale" occupancy; the respective scales are better interpreted as temporal (instantaneous and asymptotic) rather than spatial. Occupancy is an inadequate metric for population monitoring when it is confounded with home-range size or detection distance.

Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

A variable resolution x-ray detector for computed tomography: II. Imaging theory and performance.

PubMed

DiBianca, F A; Zou, P; Jordan, L M; Laughter, J S; Zeman, H D; Sebes, J

2000-08-01

A computed tomography (CT) imaging technique called variable resolution x-ray (VRX) detection provides variable image resolution ranging from that of clinical body scanning (1 cy/mm) to that of microscopy (100 cy/mm). In this paper, an experimental VRX CT scanner based on a rotating subject table and an angulated storage phosphor screen detector is described and tested. The measured projection resolution of the scanner is > or = 20 lp/mm. Using this scanner, 4.8-s CT scans are made of specimens of human extremities and of in vivo hamsters. In addition, the system's projected spatial resolution is calculated to exceed 100 cy/mm for a future on-line CT scanner incorporating smaller focal spots (0.1 mm) than those currently used and a 1008-channel VRX detector with 0.6-mm cell spacing.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Rapid X-ray variability properties during the unusual very hard state in neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijnands, R.; Parikh, A. S.; Altamirano, D.; Homan, J.; Degenaar, N.

2017-11-01

Here, we study the rapid X-ray variability (using XMM-Newton observations) of three neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries (1RXS J180408.9-342058, EXO 1745-248 and IGR J18245-2452) during their recently proposed very hard spectral state. All our systems exhibit a strong to very strong noise component in their power density spectra (rms amplitudes ranging from 34 per cent to 102 per cent) with very low characteristic frequencies (as low as 0.01 Hz). These properties are more extreme than what is commonly observed in the canonical hard state of neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries observed at X-ray luminosities similar to those we observe from our sources. This suggests that indeed the very hard state is a spectral-timing state distinct from the hard state, although we argue that the variability behaviour of IGR J18245-2452 is very extreme and possibly this source was in a very unusual state. We also compare our results with the rapid X-ray variability of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsars IGR J00291+5934 and Swift J0911.9-6452 (also using XMM-Newton data) for which previously similar variability phenomena were observed. Although their energy spectra (as observed using the Swift X-ray telescope) were not necessarily as hard (i.e. for Swift J0911.9-6452) as for our other three sources, we conclude that likely both sources were also in very similar state during their XMM-Newton observations. This suggests that different sources that are found in this new state might exhibit different spectral hardness and one has to study both the spectral and the rapid variability to identify this unusual state.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Median and ulnar neuropathies in university guitarists.

PubMed

Kennedy, Rachel H; Hutcherson, Kimberly J; Kain, Jennifer B; Phillips, Alicia L; Halle, John S; Greathouse, David G

2006-02-01

Descriptive study. To determine the presence of median and ulnar neuropathies in both upper extremities of university guitarists. Peripheral nerve entrapment syndromes of the upper extremities are well documented in musicians. Guitarists and plucked-string musicians are at risk for entrapment neuropathies in the upper extremities and are prone to mild neurologic deficits. Twenty-four volunteer male and female guitarists (age range, 18-26 years) were recruited from the Belmont University School of Music and the Vanderbilt University Blair School of Music. Individuals were excluded if they were pregnant or had a history of recent upper extremity or neck injury. Subjects completed a history form, were interviewed, and underwent a physical examination. Nerve conduction status of the median and ulnar nerves of both upper extremities was obtained by performing motor, sensory, and F-wave (central) nerve conduction studies. Descriptive statistics of the nerve conduction study variables were computed using Microsoft Excel. Six subjects had positive findings on provocative testing of the median and ulnar nerves. Otherwise, these guitarists had normal upper extremity neural and musculoskeletal function based on the history and physical examinations. When comparing the subjects' nerve conduction study values with a chart of normal nerve conduction studies values, 2 subjects had prolonged distal motor latencies (DMLs) of the left median nerve of 4.3 and 4.7 milliseconds (normal, < 4.2 milliseconds). Prolonged DMLs are compatible with median neuropathy at or distal to the wrist. Otherwise, all electrophysiological variables were within normal limits for motor, sensory, and F-wave (central) values. However, comparison studies of median and ulnar motor latencies in the same hand demonstrated prolonged differences of greater than 1.0 milliseconds that affected the median nerve in 2 additional subjects, and identified contralateral limb involvement in a subject with a prolonged distal latency. The other 20 subjects demonstrated normal comparison studies of the median and ulnar nerves in both upper extremities. In this descriptive study of a population of 24 university guitarists, 4 musicians (17%) were found to have electrophysiologic evidence of median neuropathy at or distal to the wrist or carpal tunnel syndrome. Ulnar nerve electrophysiological function was within normal limits for all subjects examined.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Lake trout (exclusive of the Great Lakes)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcus, Michael D.; Hubert, Wayne A.; Anderson, Stanley H.

1984-01-01

The lake trout is an important commercial and sport fish in North America. In the Central Rocky Mountain regi on, 1ake trout are common ly referred to as "mackinaw". There is good evidence that lake trout should be called "1 ake charr" (Morton 1980). No subspecies of lake trout is presently recognized (Robins et al. 1980). The species, however, has extreme variability throughout its range, making it difficult to draw general conclusions about its biology (Martin and Olver 1980).

Effect of elevation on extreme precipitation of short durations: evidences of orographic signature on the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo

2015-04-01

Here, we show how atmospheric circulation and topography rule the variability of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves parameters, and we discuss how this variability has physical implications on the formation of extreme precipitations at high elevations. A DDF is a curve ruling the value of the maximum annual precipitation H as a function of duration D and the level of probability F. We consider around 1500 stations over the Italian territory, with at least 20 years of data of maximum annual precipitation depth at different durations. We estimated the DDF parameters at each location by using the asymptotic distribution of extreme values, i.e. the so-called Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and considering a statistical simple scale invariance hypothesis. Consequently, a DDF curve depends on five different parameters. A first set relates H with the duration (namely, the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration and the scaling exponent), while a second set links H to F (namely, a scale, position and shape parameter). The value of the shape parameter has consequences on the type of random variable (unbounded, upper or lower bounded). This extensive analysis shows that the variability of the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration obeys to the coupled effect of topography and modal direction of moisture flux during extreme events. Median values of this parameter decrease with elevation. We called this phenomenon "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations, since it is in contrast with general knowledge about the orographic effect on mean precipitation. Moreover, the scaling exponent is mainly driven by topography alone (with increasing values of this parameter at increasing elevations). Therefore, the quantiles of H(D,F) at durations greater than unit turn to be more variable at high elevations than at low elevations. Additionally, the analysis of the variability of the shape parameter with elevation shows that extreme events at high elevations appear to be distributed according to an upper bounded probability distribution. These evidences could be a characteristic sign of the formation of extreme precipitation events at high elevations.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Understanding spatial variability in extreme estuarine water levels to inform better coastal management practise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andy, ,, Prof.; Brown, Jenny, ,, Dr.; Leonardi, Nicoletta, ,, Dr.

2017-04-01

Coastal zones worldwide are subject to short term, local variations in sea-level, particularly communities and industries developed on estuaries. Astronomical high tides, meteorological storm surges and increased river flow present a combined flood hazard. This can elevate water level at the coast above predicted levels, generating extreme water levels. These contributions can also interact to alter the phase and amplitude of tides and surges, and thus cause significant mismatches between the predicted and observed water level. The combined effect of tide, surge, river flow and their interactions are the key to understanding and assessing flood risk in estuarine environments for design purposes. Delft3D-FLOW, a hydrodynamic model which solves the unsteady shallow-water equation, is used to access spatial variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England. Long-term tide gauge records from Ilfracombe and Mumbles and river level data from Sandhurst are analysed to generate a series of extreme water level events, representing the 90th, 95th and 99th percentile conditions, to force the model boundaries. To separate out the time-varying contributions of tidal, fluvial, meteorological processes and their interactions the model is run with different physical forcing. A low pass filter is applied to "de-tide" the residual water elevation, to separate out the time-varying meteorological residual and the tide-surge interactions within the surge. The filtered surge is recombined with the predicted tide so the peak occurs at different times relative to high water. The resulting time series are used to force the model boundary to identify how the interactive processes influence the timing of extreme water level across the estuarine domain. This methodology is first validated using the most extreme event on record to ensure that modelled extreme water levels can be predicted with confidence. Changes in maximum water level are observed in areas where nuclear assets are located (Hinkley, Oldbury & Berkeley) and further upstream, e.g., close to the tidal limit of the Severn Estuary at Epney. Change in crest shape (area and duration above the MSHW) are analysed to understand changes to flood hazard around the peak of the tide. The work concludes that changes in maximum water level can be attributed to the change in time of the peak of the surge relative to high water, the surge shape (classified by skew and kurtosis) and severity of the event. The results can be used to understand the spatial variability in extreme water levels relative to a tide gauge location, which can then be applied to other management needs in hypertidal estuaries worldwide.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Extreme dissolved oxygen variability in urbanised tropical wetlands: The need for detailed monitoring to protect nursery ground values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubuc, Alexia; Waltham, Nathan; Malerba, Martino; Sheaves, Marcus

2017-11-01

Little is known about levels of dissolved oxygen fish are exposed to daily in typical urbanised tropical wetlands found along the Great Barrier Reef coastline. This study investigates diel dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in one of these typical urbanised wetlands, in tropical North Queensland, Australia. High frequency data loggers (DO, temperature, depth) were deployed for several days over the summer months in different tidal pools and channels that fish use as temporal or permanent refuges. DO was extremely variable over a 24 h cycle, and across the small-scale wetland. The high spatial and temporal DO variability measured was affected by time of day and tidal factors, namely water depth, tidal range and tidal direction (flood vs ebb). For the duration of the logging time, DO was mainly above the adopted threshold for hypoxia (50% saturation), however, for around 11% of the time, and on almost every logging day, DO values fell below the threshold, including a severe hypoxic event (<5% saturation) that continued for several hours. Fish still use this wetland intensively, so must be able to cope with low DO periods. Despite the ability of fish to tolerate extreme conditions, continuing urban expansion is likely to lead to further water quality degradation and so potential loss of nursery ground value. There is a substantial discontinuity between the recommended DO values in the Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality and the values observed in this wetland, highlighting the limited value of these guidelines for management purposes. Local and regional high frequency data monitoring programs, in conjunction with local exposure risk studies are needed to underpin the development of the management that will ensure the sustainability of coastal wetlands.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Why is the Skill of the Models in Reproducing MJO and its Impacts on the South American Monsoon Important for Subseasonal Prediction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, A. M.; Silva, T. M.; Hirata, F. E.; Martins, G. P.

2017-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences significantly daily precipitation and the frequency of extreme events during the summer South American monsoon (SAM) in important regions of the continent. One of the main features of the SAM, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), extends from central South America over Southeast Brazil and into the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, affecting very densely populated areas in Southeast Brazil. During the austral summer this region is strongly affected by landslides and floods associated with active SACZ, and the extreme precipitation events receive contribution from synoptic and MJO-related intraseasonal variability. Therefore, it is important to assess the observed impacts of the MJO in its different phases and to evaluate the models' skill in reproducing these phases and their impacts on South America in order to explore extended-range predictability of those events. The MJO cycle is divided into 8 phases according to the temporal evolution of the first two observed modes of multivariate EOF analysis of tropical convection and zonal winds. The teleconnections associated with these impacts are analyzed with simulations and influence functions of a simple model. The results show that two of the MJO phases strongly enhance the extreme events in the SACZ region and indicate the responsible mechanisms, lending these events a higher degree of predictability on subseasonal time-scales. Therefore, in selecting models to build a subseasonal-range forecasting scheme for extreme precipitation events, a necessary step is the assessment of their skill in reproducing MJO and its observed impacts on South America. Well-known models of the S2S Project, among them the ECMWF and CFS-v2 models are analyzed. Their reforecasts for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 are separately projected onto the first two modes of tropical convection and zonal wind variability in order to identify the predicted MJO phases. Although the skill of one of the models in predicting these phases extends to week 4, generally the useful skill does not extend beyond week 3. The simulation of the impacts over South America, especially on the SACZ, is also assessed for selected models.

Why is the Skill of the Models in Reproducing MJO and its Impacts on the South American Monsoon Important for Subseasonal Prediction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, S.; Wirth, M.; Schäfler, A.; Ewald, F.; Urbanek, B.; Kiemle, C.; Ehret, G.

2016-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences significantly daily precipitation and the frequency of extreme events during the summer South American monsoon (SAM) in important regions of the continent. One of the main features of the SAM, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), extends from central South America over Southeast Brazil and into the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, affecting very densely populated areas in Southeast Brazil. During the austral summer this region is strongly affected by landslides and floods associated with active SACZ, and the extreme precipitation events receive contribution from synoptic and MJO-related intraseasonal variability. Therefore, it is important to assess the observed impacts of the MJO in its different phases and to evaluate the models' skill in reproducing these phases and their impacts on South America in order to explore extended-range predictability of those events. The MJO cycle is divided into 8 phases according to the temporal evolution of the first two observed modes of multivariate EOF analysis of tropical convection and zonal winds. The teleconnections associated with these impacts are analyzed with simulations and influence functions of a simple model. The results show that two of the MJO phases strongly enhance the extreme events in the SACZ region and indicate the responsible mechanisms, lending these events a higher degree of predictability on subseasonal time-scales. Therefore, in selecting models to build a subseasonal-range forecasting scheme for extreme precipitation events, a necessary step is the assessment of their skill in reproducing MJO and its observed impacts on South America. Well-known models of the S2S Project, among them the ECMWF and CFS-v2 models are analyzed. Their reforecasts for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 are separately projected onto the first two modes of tropical convection and zonal wind variability in order to identify the predicted MJO phases. Although the skill of one of the models in predicting these phases extends to week 4, generally the useful skill does not extend beyond week 3. The simulation of the impacts over South America, especially on the SACZ, is also assessed for selected models.

Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, A. C. S.; Galvão, C. O.; Silva, G. N. S.

2015-06-01

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997-2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012-2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Trends and variability of daily precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trends and variability of extreme precipitation events are important for water-related disaster prevention and mitigation as well as water resource management. Based on daily precipitation dataset from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of precipitation indices rec...

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Photometric search for variable stars in the young open cluster Berkeley 59

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lata, Sneh; Pandey, A. K.; Maheswar, G.; Mondal, Soumen; Kumar, Brijesh

2011-12-01

We present the time series photometry of stars located in the extremely young open cluster Berkeley 59. Using the 1.04-m telescope at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES), Nainital, we have identified 42 variables in a field of ˜13 × 13 arcmin2 around the cluster. The probable members of the cluster have been identified using a (V, V-I) colour-magnitude diagram and a (J-H, H-K) colour-colour diagram. 31 variables have been found to be pre-main-sequence stars associated with the cluster. The ages and masses of the pre-main-sequence stars have been derived from the colour-magnitude diagram by fitting theoretical models to the observed data points. The ages of the majority of the probable pre-main-sequence variable candidates range from 1 to 5 Myr. The masses of these pre-main-sequence variable stars have been found to be in the range of ˜0.3 to ˜3.5 M⊙, and these could be T Tauri stars. The present statistics reveal that about 90 per cent T Tauri stars have period <15 d. The classical T Tauri stars are found to have a larger amplitude than the weak-line T Tauri stars. There is an indication that the amplitude decreases with an increase in mass, which could be due to the dispersal of the discs of relatively massive stars.

Titan's Upper Atmosphere from Cassini/UVIS Solar Occultations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capalbo, Fernando J.; Bénilan, Yves; Yelle, Roger V.; Koskinen, Tommi T.

2015-12-01

Titan’s atmosphere is composed mainly of molecular nitrogen, methane being the principal trace gas. From the analysis of 8 solar occultations measured by the Extreme Ultraviolet channel of the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) on board Cassini, we derived vertical profiles of N2 in the range 1100-1600 km and vertical profiles of CH4 in the range 850-1300 km. The correction of instrument effects and observational effects applied to the data are described. We present CH4 mole fractions, and average temperatures for the upper atmosphere obtained from the N2 profiles. The occultations correspond to different times and locations, and an analysis of variability of density and temperature is presented. The temperatures were analyzed as a function of geographical and temporal variables, without finding a clear correlation with any of them, although a trend of decreasing temperature toward the north pole was observed. The globally averaged temperature obtained is (150 ± 1) K. We compared our results from solar occultations with those derived from other UVIS observations, as well as studies performed with other instruments. The observational data we present confirm the atmospheric variability previously observed, add new information to the global picture of Titan’s upper atmosphere composition, variability, and dynamics, and provide new constraints to photochemical models.

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Detzer, Judah; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Lee, Huikyo; Barkhordarian, Armineh

2017-10-01

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced over parts of northern South America when the Atlantic Niño index is in the upper quartile, while cold extremes are often association with the lowest quartile. Concurrent precipitation anomalies may contribute to these relations. The PDO shows weak associations during December, January, and February, while in June, July, and August its relationship with extreme warm temperatures closely matches that of ENSO. This may be due to the positive relationship between the PDO and ENSO, rather than the PDO acting as an independent physical mechanism. Over Patagonia, the SAM is highly influential during spring and fall, with warm and cold extremes being associated with positive and negative phases of the SAM, respectively. Composites of sea level pressure anomalies for extreme temperature months over Patagonia suggest an important role of local synoptic scale weather variability in addition to a favorable SAM for the occurrence of these extremes.

Duplex sonography for detection of deep vein thrombosis of upper extremities: a 13-year experience.

PubMed

Chung, Amy S Y; Luk, W H; Lo, Adrian X N; Lo, C F

2015-04-01

To determine the prevalence and characteristics of sonographically evident upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis in symptomatic Chinese patients and identify its associated risk factors. Regional hospital, Hong Kong. Data on patients undergoing upper-extremity venous sonography examinations during a 13-year period from November 1999 to October 2012 were retrieved. Variables including age, sex, history of smoking, history of lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis, major surgery within 30 days, immobilisation within 30 days, cancer (history of malignancy), associated central venous or indwelling catheter, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, sepsis within 30 days, and stroke within 30 days were tested using binary logistic regression to understand the risk factors for upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. The presence of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis identified. Overall, 213 patients with upper-extremity sonography were identified. Of these patients, 29 (13.6%) had upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. The proportion of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis using initial ultrasound was 0.26% of all deep vein thrombosis ultrasound requests. Upper limb swelling was the most common presentation seen in a total of 206 (96.7%) patients. Smoking (37.9%), history of cancer (65.5%), and hypertension (27.6%) were the more prevalent conditions among patients in the upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis-positive group. No statistically significant predictor of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis was noted if all variables were included. After backward stepwise logistic regression, the final model was left with only age (P=0.119), female gender (P=0.114), and history of malignancy (P=0.024) as independent variables. History of malignancy remained predictive of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. Upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis is uncommon among symptomatic Chinese population. The most common sign is swelling and the major risk factor for upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis identified in this study is malignancy.

Adiposity and Physical Activity Are Not Related to Academic Achievement in School-Aged Children

PubMed Central

LeBlanc, Monique M.; Martin, Corby K.; Han, Hongmei; Newton, Robert; Sothern, Melinda; Webber, Larry S.; Davis, Allison B.; Williamson, Donald A.

2012-01-01

Objective To investigate the hypotheses that in elementary school students: 1) adiposity and academic achievement are negatively correlated and 2) physical activity and academic achievement are positively correlated. Method Participants were 1963 children in fourth through sixth grades. Adiposity was assessed by calculating body mass index (BMI) percentile and percent body fat and academic achievement with statewide standardized tests in four content areas. Socioeconomic status and age were control variables. A subset of participants (n = 261) wore an accelerometer for three days to provide objective measurement of physical activity. Additionally, the association between weight status and academic achievement was examined by comparing children who could be classified as “extremely obese” and the rest of the sample, as well as comparing children who could be classified as normal weight, overweight, or obese. Extreme obesity was defined as >= 1.2 times the 95th percentile. Results Results indicated that there were no significant associations between adiposity or physical activity and achievement in students. No academic achievement differences were found between children with BMI percentiles within the extreme obesity range and those who did not fall within the extreme obesity classification. Additionally, no academic achievement differences were found for children with BMI percentiles within the normal weight, overweight, or obese ranges. Conclusion These results do not support the hypotheses that increased adiposity is associated with decreased academic achievement or that greater physical activity is related to improved achievement. However, these results are limited by methodological weaknesses, especially the use of cross-sectional data. PMID:22617499

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Applying Incremental Sampling Methodology to Soils Containing Heterogeneously Distributed Metallic Residues to Improve Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Clausen, J L; Georgian, T; Gardner, K H; Douglas, T A

2018-01-01

This study compares conventional grab sampling to incremental sampling methodology (ISM) to characterize metal contamination at a military small-arms-range. Grab sample results had large variances, positively skewed non-normal distributions, extreme outliers, and poor agreement between duplicate samples even when samples were co-located within tens of centimeters of each other. The extreme outliers strongly influenced the grab sample means for the primary contaminants lead (Pb) and antinomy (Sb). In contrast, median and mean metal concentrations were similar for the ISM samples. ISM significantly reduced measurement uncertainty of estimates of the mean, increasing data quality (e.g., for environmental risk assessments) with fewer samples (e.g., decreasing total project costs). Based on Monte Carlo resampling simulations, grab sampling resulted in highly variable means and upper confidence limits of the mean relative to ISM.

Continuous relative phase variability during an exhaustive run in runners with a history of iliotibial band syndrome.

PubMed

Miller, Ross H; Meardon, Stacey A; Derrick, Timothy R; Gillette, Jason C

2008-08-01

Previous research has proposed that a lack of variability in lower extremity coupling during running is associated with pathology. The purpose of the study was to evaluate lower extremity coupling variability in runners with and without a history of iliotibial band syndrome (ITBS) during an exhaustive run. Sixteen runners ran to voluntary exhaustion on a motorized treadmill while a motion capture system recorded reflective marker locations. Eight runners had a history of ITBS. At the start and end of the run, continuous relative phase (CRP) angles and CRP variability between strides were calculated for key lower extremity kinematic couplings. The ITBS runners demonstrated less CRP variability than controls in several couplings between segments that have been associated with knee pain and ITBS symptoms, including tibia rotation-rearfoot motion and rearfoot motion-thigh ad/abduction, but more variability in knee flexion/extension-foot ad/abduction. The ITBS runners also demonstrated low variability at heel strike in coupling between rearfoot motion-tibia rotation. The results suggest that runners prone to ITBS use abnormal segmental coordination patterns, particular in couplings involving thigh ad/abduction and tibia internal/external rotation. Implications for variability in injury etiology are suggested.

Thermal Evolution and Radiative Output of Solar Flares Observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlin, P. C.; Milligan, R. O.; Woods, T. N.

2012-01-01

This paper describes the methods used to obtain the thermal evolution and radiative output during solar flares as observed by the Extreme u ltraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Ob servatory (SDO). Presented and discussed in detail are how EVE measur ements, due to its temporal cadence, spectral resolution and spectral range, can be used to determine how the thermal plasma radiates at v arious temperatures throughout the impulsive and gradual phase of fla res. EVE can very accurately determine the radiative output of flares due to pre- and in-flight calibrations. Events are presented that sh ow the total radiated output of flares depends more on the flare duration than the typical GOES X-ray peak magnitude classification. With S DO observing every flare throughout its entire duration and over a la rge temperature range, new insights into flare heating and cooling as well as the radiative energy release in EUV wavelengths support exis ting research into understanding the evolution of solar flares.

A review of the cultivation and processing of cannabis (Cannabis sativa L.) for production of prescription medicines in the UK.

PubMed

Potter, David J

2014-01-01

The quality demands of the pharmaceutical industry require prescription medicines to be consistent in their active ingredient content. Achieving this, using raw cannabis as a feedstock, is especially challenging. The plant material is extremely inhomogeneous, and the ratios of active ingredients are affected by a range of factors. These include the genetics of the plant, the growing and storage conditions, the state of maturity at harvest, and the methods used to process and formulate the material. The reasons for this variability are described, with particular emphasis on the botanical considerations. To produce the complex botanical medicine Sativex®, which contains the cannabinoids Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and cannabidiol (CBD) and a range of other ingredients, GW Pharmaceuticals had to manage these variables. This medicine, for the treatment of spasticity due to multiple sclerosis, is the first cannabis-based medicine to be approved in the UK. The company's methodology for producing this and other chemotypes is described. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Drake Equation revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konesky, Gregory

2009-08-01

In the almost half century since the Drake Equation was first conceived, a number of profound discoveries have been made that require each of the seven variables of this equation to be reconsidered. The discovery of hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor, for example, as well as the ever-increasing extreme conditions in which life is found on Earth, suggest a much wider range of possible extraterrestrial habitats. The growing consensus that life originated very early in Earth's history also supports this suggestion. The discovery of exoplanets with a wide range of host star types, and attendant habitable zones, suggests that life may be possible in planetary systems with stars quite unlike our Sun. Stellar evolution also plays an important part in that habitable zones are mobile. The increasing brightness of our Sun over the next few billion years, will place the Earth well outside the present habitable zone, but will then encompass Mars, giving rise to the notion that some Drake Equation variables, such as the fraction of planets on which life emerges, may have multiple values.

Community dynamics and ecosystem simplification in a high-CO2 ocean.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Gambi, Maria Cristina; Micheli, Fiorenza

2013-07-30

Disturbances are natural features of ecosystems that promote variability in the community and ultimately maintain diversity. Although it is recognized that global change will affect environmental disturbance regimes, our understanding of the community dynamics governing ecosystem recovery and the maintenance of functional diversity in future scenarios is very limited. Here, we use one of the few ecosystems naturally exposed to future scenarios of environmental change to examine disturbance and recovery dynamics. We examine the recovery patterns of marine species from a physical disturbance across different acidification regimes caused by volcanic CO2 vents. Plots of shallow rocky reef were cleared of all species in areas of ambient, low, and extreme low pH that correspond to near-future and extreme scenarios for ocean acidification. Our results illustrate how acidification decreases the variability of communities, resulting in homogenization and reduced functional diversity at a landscape scale. Whereas the recovery trajectories in ambient pH were highly variable and resulted in a diverse range of assemblages, recovery was more predictable with acidification and consistently resulted in very similar algal-dominated assemblages. Furthermore, low pH zones had fewer signs of biological disturbance (primarily sea urchin grazing) and increased recovery rates of the dominant taxa (primarily fleshy algae). Together, our results highlight how environmental change can cause ecosystem simplification via environmentally mediated changes in community dynamics in the near future, with cascading impacts on functional diversity and ecosystem function.

Robustness of a rhythmic circuit to short- and long-term temperature changes.

PubMed

Tang, Lamont S; Taylor, Adam L; Rinberg, Anatoly; Marder, Eve

2012-07-18

Recent computational and experimental work has shown that similar network performance can result from variable sets of synaptic and intrinsic properties. Because temperature is a global perturbation that differentially influences every biological process within the nervous system, one might therefore expect that individual animals would respond differently to temperature. Nonetheless, the phase relationships of the pyloric rhythm of the stomatogastric ganglion (STG) of the crab, Cancer borealis, are remarkably invariant between 7 and 23°C (Tang et al., 2010). Here, we report that, when isolated STG preparations were exposed to more extreme temperature ranges, their networks became nonrhythmic, or "crashed", in a reversible fashion. Animals were acclimated for at least 3 weeks at 7, 11, or 19°C. When networks from the acclimated animals were perturbed by acute physiologically relevant temperature ramps (11-23°C), the network frequency and phase relationships were independent of the acclimation group. At high acute temperatures (>23°C), circuits from the cold-acclimated animals produced less-regular pyloric rhythms than those from warm-acclimated animals. At high acute temperatures, phase relationships between pyloric neurons were more variable from animal to animal than at moderate acute temperatures, suggesting that individual differences across animals in intrinsic circuit parameters are revealed at high temperatures. This shows that individual and variable neuronal circuits can behave similarly in normal conditions, but their behavior may diverge when confronted with extreme external perturbations.

Ecological niche differentiation of polyploidization is not supported by environmental differences among species in a cosmopolitan grass genus.

PubMed

Visser, Vernon; Molofsky, Jane

2015-01-01

• Polyploidization frequently results in the creation of new plant species, the establishment of which is thought to often be facilitated by ecological niche differentiation from the diploid species. We tested this hypothesis using the cosmopolitan grass genus Phalaris (Poaceae), consisting of 19 species that range from diploid to tetraploid to hexaploid. Specifically, we tested whether (1) polyploids occupy more extreme environments and/or (2) have broader niche breadths and/or (3) whether the polyploid species' distributions indicate a niche shift from diploid species.• We employed a bootstrapping approach using distribution data for each species and eight environmental variables to investigate differences between species in the means, extremes, and breadths of each environmental variable. We used a kernel smoothing technique to quantify niche overlap between species.• Although we found some support for the three hypotheses for a few diploid-polyploid pairs and for specific environmental variables, none of these hypotheses were generally supported.• Our results suggest that these commonly held hypotheses about the effects of polyploidization on ecological distributions are not universally applicable. Correlative biogeographic studies like ours provide a necessary first step for suggesting specific hypotheses that require experimental verification. A combination of genetic, physiological, and ecological studies will be required to achieve a better understanding of the role of polyploidization in niche evolution. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Response of wheat yield in Spain to large-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

2016-04-01

Crops are vulnerable to extreme climate conditions as drought, heat stress and frost risk. In previous study we have quantified the influence of these climate conditions for winter wheat in Spain (Hernandez-Barrera et al. 2015). The climate extremes respond to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Therefore, a question emerges in our investigation: How large-scale patterns affect wheat yield? Obtaining and understanding these relationships require different approaches. In this study, we first obtained the leading mode of observed wheat yield variability to characterize the common variability over different provinces in Spain. Then, the wheat variability is related to different modes of mean sea level pressure, jet stream and sea surface temperature by using Partial Least-Squares, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield from sowing to harvesting. We used the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (ERSST v3b). The derived model provides insight about the teleconnections between wheat yield and atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which is considered to project the wheat yield trend under global warming using outputs of twelve climate models corresponding to the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Hernandez-Barrera S., C. Rodríguez-Puebla and A.J. Challinor. Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (submitted)

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here, we use the regional frequency analysis approach to define homogeneous regions which are affected by the same storms. Extreme value models are then fitted to the data pooled from across a region. We find that this approach leads to more spatially consistent return level estimates with reduced uncertainty bounds.

Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

X-ray and extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy on DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Victor, Brian S.; Allen, Steve L.; Beiersdorfer, P.

Two spectrometers were installed to measure tungsten emission in the core of DIII-D plasmas during a metal rings experimental campaign. The spectral range of the high-resolution (1340 spectral channels), variable-ruled grating X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (XEUS) extends from10–71more » $$\\dot{A}$$ . The spectral range of the second spectrometer, the Long-Wavelength Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (LoWEUS), measures between 31–174$$\\dot{A}$$ . Three groups of tungsten lines were identified with XEUS: W 38+-W 45+ from 47–63$$\\dot{A}$$ , W 27+-W 35+ from 45–55$$\\dot{A}$$ , and W 28+-W 33+ from 16–30$$\\dot{A}$$ . Emission lines from tungsten charge states W 28+, W 43+, W 44+, and W 45+ are identified and the line amplitude is presented versus time. Peak emission of W 43+-W 45+ occurs between core Te=2.5-3 keV, and peak emission of W28+ occurs at core Te 1:3 keV. One group of tungsten lines, W 40+-W 45+, between 120–140$$\\dot{A}$$ , was identified with LoWEUS. W 43+- W 45+ lines measured with LoWEUS track the sawtooth cycle. Furthermore, sensitivity to the sawtooth cycle and the correlation of the peak emission with core electron temperature show that these spectrometers track the on-axis tungsten emission of DIII-D plasmas.« less

X-ray and extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy on DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Victor, Brian S.; Allen, Steve L.; Beiersdorfer, P.; ...

2017-06-14

Two spectrometers were installed to measure tungsten emission in the core of DIII-D plasmas during a metal rings experimental campaign. The spectral range of the high-resolution (1340 spectral channels), variable-ruled grating X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (XEUS) extends from10–71more » $$\\dot{A}$$ . The spectral range of the second spectrometer, the Long-Wavelength Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (LoWEUS), measures between 31–174$$\\dot{A}$$ . Three groups of tungsten lines were identified with XEUS: W 38+-W 45+ from 47–63$$\\dot{A}$$ , W 27+-W 35+ from 45–55$$\\dot{A}$$ , and W 28+-W 33+ from 16–30$$\\dot{A}$$ . Emission lines from tungsten charge states W 28+, W 43+, W 44+, and W 45+ are identified and the line amplitude is presented versus time. Peak emission of W 43+-W 45+ occurs between core Te=2.5-3 keV, and peak emission of W28+ occurs at core Te 1:3 keV. One group of tungsten lines, W 40+-W 45+, between 120–140$$\\dot{A}$$ , was identified with LoWEUS. W 43+- W 45+ lines measured with LoWEUS track the sawtooth cycle. Furthermore, sensitivity to the sawtooth cycle and the correlation of the peak emission with core electron temperature show that these spectrometers track the on-axis tungsten emission of DIII-D plasmas.« less

Dissipative Effects on Inertial-Range Statistics at High Reynolds Numbers.

PubMed

Sinhuber, Michael; Bewley, Gregory P; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-09-29

Using the unique capabilities of the Variable Density Turbulence Tunnel at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, we report experimental measurements in classical grid turbulence that uncover oscillations of the velocity structure functions in the inertial range. This was made possible by measuring extremely long time series of up to 10^{10} samples of the turbulent fluctuating velocity, which corresponds to O(10^{7}) integral length scales. The measurements were conducted in a well-controlled environment at a wide range of high Reynolds numbers from R_{λ}=110 up to R_{λ}=1600, using both traditional hot-wire probes as well as the nanoscale thermal anemometry probe developed at Princeton University. An implication of the observed oscillations is that dissipation influences the inertial-range statistics of turbulent flows at scales significantly larger than predicted by current models and theories.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

An inverse approach to perturb historical rainfall data for scenario-neutral climate impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2018-01-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for climate impact assessments, as they allow water resource system performance to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. An important element of these approaches is the generation of perturbed series of hydrometeorological variables that form the inputs to hydrologic and water resource assessment models, with most scenario-neutral studies to-date considering only shifts in the average and a limited number of other statistics of each climate variable. In this study, a stochastic generation approach is used to perturb not only the average of the relevant hydrometeorological variables, but also attributes such as the intermittency and extremes. An optimization-based inverse approach is developed to obtain hydrometeorological time series with uniform coverage across the possible ranges of rainfall attributes (referred to as the 'exposure space'). The approach is demonstrated on a widely used rainfall generator, WGEN, for a case study at Adelaide, Australia, and is shown to be capable of producing evenly-distributed samples over the exposure space. The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.

Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Heather M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.; Harris, Erica L.; Allan, Jonathan; Komar, Paul D.; Corcoran, Patrick

2015-01-01

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

A comparative assessment of statistical methods for extreme weather analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

Extreme weather exposure assessment is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. We compare different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series over the standardly used annual maxima series in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing partial duration series, PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing annual maxima series, AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was neither visible from the square-root criterion, nor from standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot), but from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in synoptic quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach, but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of this study are of relevance for a broad range of environmental variables, including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Crystals of Janus colloids at various interaction ranges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preisler, Z.; Soft Condensed Matter, Debye Institute for Nanomaterials Science, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht; Vissers, T.

We investigate the effect of interaction range on the phase behaviour of Janus particles with a Kern-Frenkel potential. Specifically, we study interaction ranges Δ = 0.1σ, 0.3σ, 0.4σ, 0.5σ with σ the particle diameter, and use variable box shape simulations to predict crystal structures. We found that changing the interaction range beyond 0.2σ drastically increases the variety of possible crystal structures. In addition to close-packed structures, we find body-centered tetragonal and AA-stacked hexagonal crystals, as well as several lamellar crystals. For long interaction ranges and low temperatures, we also observe an extremely large number of metastable structures which compete withmore » the thermodynamically stable ones. These competing structures hinder the detection of the lowest-energy crystal structures, and are also likely to interfere with the spontaneous formation of the ground-state structure. Finally, we determine the gas-liquid coexistence curves for several interaction ranges, and observe that these are metastable with respect to crystallization.« less

The flaring activity of Markarian 421 during April 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fegan, D. J.; VERITAS Collaboration

2001-08-01

Evidence for correlated TeV γ and X-ray flaring of the extreme blazar Mrk421 during April 2000 is presented and discussed. The remarkably persistent TeV flare of April 30th 2000 (40 σ significance), exhibiting structure over almost six hours of continuous observation, is analysed in detail. 1 Extreme BL Lac objects The most extreme members of the Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) family are BL Lac objects and optically violently variable (OVV) quasars, collectively known as blazars. These objects are dominated by the presence of relativistic jets. For jets fortuitously aligned with an observers line of sight, emission may exhibit dramatic variability over very short time scales, in turn implying remarkably compact emission regions. For blazars, the Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) is dominated by non-thermal continuum emission, extending from radio to TeV gamma rays. The broadband nature of the blazar emission offers unique insights into energetic physical processes at work in a very compact region, close to the base of the jet and near the underlying central engine, most likely a supermassive black hole. BL Lacs are very effectively characterized on the basis of their SED shape. X-ray and radio flux limited surveys apear to display a bimodal distribution of properties, with LBL (Low-energy peaked, or "Red" BL Lacs) having synchrotron peaks in the IR-optical bands, and HBL (High-energy peaked, or "Blue" BL Lacs) in the UV to soft X-ray band. Recent comprehensive surveys such as DXRBS, REX and RGB have extended, by almost two orders of magnitude, the range of observable synchrotron peak frequencies. For blazar class objects, broadband emission confirms that the synchrotron peak may span the entire IR Xray range, thus accounting for the multi-frequency emission properties of this class of object. Mrk421, Mrk501, 1ES2344 and 1H1426 all exhibit broadband emission properties, high

Climate forecasting services: coming down from the ivory tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Caron, L. P.; Cortesi, N.; Soret, A.; Torralba, V.; Turco, M.; González Reviriego, N.; Jiménez, I.; Terrado, M.

2016-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts are increasingly used across a range of application areas (energy, water management, agriculture, health, insurance) through tailored services using the climate services paradigm. In this contribution we show the value of climate forecasting services through several examples of their application in the energy, reinsurance and agriculture sectors. Climate services aim at making climate information action oriented. In a climate forecasting context the task starts with the identification of climate variables, thresholds and events relevant to the users. These elements are then analysed to determine whether they can be both reliably and skilfully predicted at appropriate time scales. In this contribution we assess climate predictions of precipitation, temperature and wind indices from state-of-the-art operational multi-model forecast systems and if they respond to the expectations and requests from a range of users. This requires going beyond the more traditional assessment of monthly mean values to include assessments of global forecast quality of the frequency of warm, cold, windy and wet extremes (e.g. [1], [2]), as well as of using tools like the Euro-Atlantic weather regimes [3]. The forecast quality of extremes is generally similar to or slightly lower than that of monthly or seasonal averages, but offers a kind of information closer to what some users require. In addition to considering local climate variables, we also explore the use of large-scale climate indices, such as ENSO and NAO, that are associated with large regional synchronous variations of wind or tropical storm frequency. These indices help illustrating the relative merits of climate forecast information to users and are the cornerstone of climate stories that engage them in the co-production of climate information. [1] Doblas-Reyes et al, WIREs, 2013 [2] Pepler et al, Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015 [3] Pavan and Doblas-Reyes, Clim Dyn, 2013

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Resilience of estuarine phytoplankton and their temporal variability along salinity gradients during drought and hypersalinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nche-Fambo, F. A.; Scharler, U. M.; Tirok, K.

2015-06-01

In South African estuaries, there is no knowledge on the resilience and variability in phytoplankton communities under conditions of hypersalinity, extended droughts and reverse salinity gradients. Phytoplankton composition, abundance and biomass vary with changes in environmental variables and taxa richness declines specifically under hypersaline conditions. This research thus investigated the phytoplankton community composition, its resilience and variability under highly variable and extreme environmental conditions in an estuarine lake system (Lake St. Lucia, South Africa) over one year. The lake system was characterised by a reverse salinity gradient with hypersalinity furthest from the estuarine inlet during the study period. During this study, 78 taxa were recorded: 56 diatoms, eight green algae, one cryptophyte, seven cyanobacteria and six dinoflagellates. Taxon variability and resilience depended on their ability to tolerate high salinities. Consequently, the phytoplankton communities as well as total abundance and biomass differed along the salinity gradient and over time with salinity as the main determinant. Cyanobacteria were dominant in hypersaline conditions, dinoflagellates in marine-brackish salinities, green algae and cryptophytes in lower salinities (brackish) and diatoms were abundant in marine-brackish salinities but survived in hypersaline conditions. Total abundance and biomass ranged from 3.66 × 103 to 1.11 × 109 Cells/L and 1.21 × 106 to 1.46 × 1010 pgC/L respectively, with the highest values observed under hypersaline conditions. Therefore, even under highly variable, extreme environmental conditions and hypersalinity the phytoplankton community as a whole was resilient enough to maintain a relatively high biomass throughout the study period. The resilience of few dominant taxa, such as Cyanothece, Spirulina, Protoperidinium and Nitzschia and the dominance of other common genera such as Chlamydomonas, Chroomonas, Navicula, Gyrosigma, Oxyrrhis, and Prorocentrum, provided the carbon at the base of the food web in the system and showed that even during the extended period of drought, a foundation for productivity can be provided for once conditions improve.

Hot spots of multivariate extreme anomalies in Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, M.; Sippel, S.; Bodesheim, P.; Brenning, A.; Denzler, J.; Gans, F.; Guanche, Y.; Reichstein, M.; Rodner, E.; Mahecha, M. D.

2016-12-01

Anomalies in Earth observations might indicate data quality issues, extremes or the change of underlying processes within a highly multivariate system. Thus, considering the multivariate constellation of variables for extreme detection yields crucial additional information over conventional univariate approaches. We highlight areas in which multivariate extreme anomalies are more likely to occur, i.e. hot spots of extremes in global atmospheric Earth observations that impact the Biosphere. In addition, we present the year of the most unusual multivariate extreme between 2001 and 2013 and show that these coincide with well known high impact extremes. Technically speaking, we account for multivariate extremes by using three sophisticated algorithms adapted from computer science applications. Namely an ensemble of the k-nearest neighbours mean distance, a kernel density estimation and an approach based on recurrences is used. However, the impact of atmosphere extremes on the Biosphere might largely depend on what is considered to be normal, i.e. the shape of the mean seasonal cycle and its inter-annual variability. We identify regions with similar mean seasonality by means of dimensionality reduction in order to estimate in each region both the `normal' variance and robust thresholds for detecting the extremes. In addition, we account for challenges like heteroscedasticity in Northern latitudes. Apart from hot spot areas, those anomalies in the atmosphere time series are of particular interest, which can only be detected by a multivariate approach but not by a simple univariate approach. Such an anomalous constellation of atmosphere variables is of interest if it impacts the Biosphere. The multivariate constellation of such an anomalous part of a time series is shown in one case study indicating that multivariate anomaly detection can provide novel insights into Earth observations.

Causing Factors for Extreme Precipitation in the Western Saudi-Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, M. M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

In the western coast of Saudi Arabia the climate is in general semi-arid but extreme precipitation events occur on a regular basis: e.g., on 26th November 2009, when 122 people were killed and 350 reported missing in Jeddah following more than 90mm in just four hours. Our investigation will a) analyse major drivers of the generation of extremes and b) investigate major responsible modes of variability for the occurrence of extremes. Firstly, we present a systematic analysis of station based observations of the most relevant extreme events (1985-2013) for 5 stations (Gizan, Makkah, Jeddah, Yenbo and Wejh). Secondly, we investigate the responsible mechanism on the synoptic to large-scale leading to the generation of extremes and will analyse factors for the time variability of extreme event occurrence. Extreme events for each station are identified in the wet season (Nov-Jan): 122 events show intensity above the respective 90th percentile. The most extreme events are systematically investigated with respect to the responsible forcing conditions which we can identify as: The influence of the Soudan Low, active Red-Sea-Trough situations established via interactions with mid-latitude tropospheric wave activity, low pressure systems over the Mediterranean, the influence of the North Africa High, the Arabian Anticyclone and the influence of the Indian monsoon trough. We investigate the role of dynamical forcing factors like the STJ and the upper-troposphere geopotential conditions and the relation to smaller local low-pressure systems. By means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on MSLP we investigate the possibility to objectively quantify the influence of existing major variability modes and their role for the generation of extreme precipitation events.

Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.

2015-12-01

Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after crown closure. When partial thinning was introduced in 1983, it responded slowly and took about 5 to 7 years to show measureable increase in its growth, despite favorable climatic conditions. This study will help to advance our understanding of carbon dynamic of forest ecosystems.

Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

House, P. R.; Lapenta, W.; Schiffer, R.

2008-01-01

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

Influence of quality control variables on failure of graphite/epoxy under extreme moisture conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, L. L.; Lee, P. R.

1980-01-01

Tension tests on graphite/epoxy composites were performed to determine the influence of various quality control variables on failure strength as a function of moisture and moderate temperatures. The extremely high and low moisture contents investigated were found to have less effect upon properties than did temperature or the quality control variables of specimen flaws and prepreg batch to batch variations. In particular, specimen flaws were found to drastically reduce the predicted strength of the composite, whereas specimens from different batches of prepreg displayed differences in strength as a function of temperature and extreme moisture exposure. The findings illustrate the need for careful specimen preparation, studies of flaw sensitivity, and careful quality control in any study of composite materials.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, Daniel; Jun, Hyunsung D.; Graham, Matthew J.

CRTS J084133.15+200525.8 is an optically bright quasar at z = 2.345 that has shown extreme spectral variability over the past decade. Photometrically, the source had a visual magnitude of V ∼ 17.3 between 2002 and 2008. Then, over the following five years, the source slowly brightened by approximately one magnitude, to V ∼ 16.2. Only ∼1 in 10,000 quasars show such extreme variability, as quantified by the extreme parameters derived for this quasar assuming a damped random walk model. A combination of archival and newly acquired spectra reveal the source to be an iron low-ionization broad absorption line quasar withmore » extreme changes in its absorption spectrum. Some absorption features completely disappear over the 9 years of optical spectra, while other features remain essentially unchanged. We report the first definitive redshift for this source, based on the detection of broad H α in a Keck/MOSFIRE spectrum. Absorption systems separated by several 1000 km s{sup −1} in velocity show coordinated weakening in the depths of their troughs as the continuum flux increases. We interpret the broad absorption line variability to be due to changes in photoionization, rather than due to motion of material along our line of sight. This source highlights one sort of rare transition object that astronomy will now be finding through dedicated time-domain surveys.« less

Oxygen isotope values of tree ring α-cellulose as a proxy of hydroclimate variability in arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, J. P.; Freimuth, E. J.; Olson, E. J.; Diefendorf, A. F.

2015-12-01

One of the main goals of tree ring isotope studies is to reconstruct climate-driven variations in the source water and antecedent precipitation; however, evaporation in the soil and leaves can significantly modify the isotope values of the source water. This is particularly the case in arid environments where evaporative effects are perhaps the most significant unknown variable when attempting to reconstruct regional-scale hydroclimate variations from tree ring isotope proxies. To quantify the effects of extreme aridity on α-cellulose δ18O values, we measured the oxygen isotope values of groundwater, xylem water, leaf water, and tree ring α-cellulose in an endemic species of drought-resistant trees (Prosopis tamarugo) from different microenvironments throughout the Atacama Desert of Northern Chile. Average annual precipitation is <5 mm/yr, and groundwater is the primary water source for P. tamarugo trees in the region. Groundwater δ18O values at the sample locations range from -6.7 to -9.7‰, and xylem water δ18O values record a systematic increase (ave. Δ18Ox-gw =+1.3‰; 2σ =1.0‰). Leaf waters are significantly affected by evaporative enrichment with a range of δ18O values from 7 to 23‰. This range most likely reflects a number of physiological and environmental conditions including tree size, canopy development, and sample time (i.e. morning vs. evening). However, despite the large variation in leaf water δ18O values, the average difference between the α-cellulose and groundwater is very consistent (Δ18Oc-gw = +39.7‰; 2σ =1.3‰). P. tamarugo samples were collected in austral spring, when tree growth was at its maximum; therefore, any seasonal variations in plant physiology not captured with this dataset will have a limited impact on cellulose production. These data demonstrate that despite the variable evaporative enrichment of 18O in the leaf water, the α-cellulose δ18O values provide a remarkably consistent record of variations in groundwater δ18O values in this extremely arid environment.

Differences in Self-Reported Physical Limitation Among Older Women and Men in Ismailia, Egypt

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Objectives. This study explores the reasons for gender differences in self-reported physical limitation among older adults in Ismailia, Egypt. Method. 435 women and 448 men, 50 years and older in Ismailia, Egypt, participated in a social survey and tests of physical performance. Ordered logit models were estimated to compare unadjusted gender differences in reported disability with these differences adjusted sequentially for (a) age and objective measures of physical performance, (b) self-reported morbidities and health care use, and (c) social and economic attributes. Results. Compared with men, women more often reported higher levels of limitation in activities of daily living (ADLs), upper-extremity range of motion (ROM), and lower-extremity gross mobility (GM). Adjusting for age and objective measures of physical performance, women and men had similar odds of self-reporting difficulty with ADLs. With sequential adjustments for the remaining variables, women maintained significantly higher odds of self-reported difficulty with upper-extremity ROM and lower-extremity GM. Discussion. Cross-culturally, gender differences in self-reported disability may arise from objective and subjective perceptions of disability. Collectively, these results and those from prior studies in Bangladesh and the United States suggest that gender gaps in self-reported physical limitation may be associated with the degree of gender equality in society. PMID:22929399

Differences in self-reported physical limitation among older women and men in Ismailia, Egypt.

PubMed

Khadr, Zeinab; Yount, Kathryn

2012-09-01

This study explores the reasons for gender differences in self-reported physical limitation among older adults in Ismailia, Egypt. 435 women and 448 men, 50 years and older in Ismailia, Egypt, participated in a social survey and tests of physical performance. Ordered logit models were estimated to compare unadjusted gender differences in reported disability with these differences adjusted sequentially for (a) age and objective measures of physical performance, (b) self-reported morbidities and health care use, and (c) social and economic attributes. Compared with men, women more often reported higher levels of limitation in activities of daily living (ADLs), upper-extremity range of motion (ROM), and lower-extremity gross mobility (GM). Adjusting for age and objective measures of physical performance, women and men had similar odds of self-reporting difficulty with ADLs. With sequential adjustments for the remaining variables, women maintained significantly higher odds of self-reported difficulty with upper-extremity ROM and lower-extremity GM. Cross-culturally, gender differences in self-reported disability may arise from objective and subjective perceptions of disability. Collectively, these results and those from prior studies in Bangladesh and the United States suggest that gender gaps in self-reported physical limitation may be associated with the degree of gender equality in society.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature-Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-01-01

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature–Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B.

2016-01-01

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. Objectives: We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Methods: Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998–2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. Results: The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Conclusions: Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature-–mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature–mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66–75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224 PMID:27346526

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

Agreement between ambulatory, home, and office blood pressure variability.

PubMed

Juhanoja, Eeva P; Niiranen, Teemu J; Johansson, Jouni K; Puukka, Pauli J; Jula, Antti M

2016-01-01

Ambulatory, home, and office blood pressure (BP) variability are often treated as a single entity. Our aim was to assess the agreement between these three methods for measuring BP variability. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory BP monitoring, 28 home BP measurements, and eight office BP measurements were performed on 461 population-based or hypertensive participants. Five variability indices were calculated for all measurement methods: SD, coefficient of variation, maximum-minimum difference, variability independent of the mean, and average real variability. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated for indices measured with different methods. The agreement between different measurement methods on the diagnoses of extreme BP variability (participants in the highest decile of variability) was assessed with kappa (κ) coefficients. SBP/DBP variability was greater in daytime (coefficient of variation: 9.8 ± 2.9/11.9 ± 3.6) and night-time ambulatory measurements (coefficient of variation: 8.6 ± 3.4/12.1 ± 4.5) than in home (coefficient of variation: 4.4 ± 1.8/4.7 ± 1.9) and office (coefficient of variation: 4.6 ± 2.4/5.2 ± 2.6) measurements (P < 0.001/0.001 for all). Pearson's correlation coefficients for systolic/diastolic daytime or night-time ambulatory-home, ambulatory-office, and home-office variability indices ranged between 0.07-0.25/0.12-0.23, 0.13-0.26/0.03-0.22 and 0.13-0.24/0.10-0.19, respectively, indicating, at most, a weak positive (r < 0.3) relationship. The agreement between measurement methods on diagnoses of extreme SBP/DBP variability was only slight (κ < 0.2), with the κ coefficients for daytime and night-time ambulatory-home, ambulatory-office, and home-office agreement varying between-0.014-0.20/0.061-0.15, 0.037-0.18/0.082-0.15, and 0.082-0.13/0.045-0.15, respectively. Shorter-term and longer-term BP variability assessed by different methods of BP measurement seem to correlate only weakly with each other. Our study suggests that BP variability measured by different methods and timeframes may reflect different phenomena, not a single entity.

RECONSTRUCTING THE ORIGINS OF HIGH-ALPINE NICHES AND CUSHION LIFE FORM IN THE GENUS ANDROSACE S.L. (PRIMULACEAE)

PubMed Central

Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Roquet, Cristina; Douzet, Rolland; Aubert, Serge; Alvarez, Nadir; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats. PMID:22486702

Adaptations to Climate-Mediated Selective Pressures in Humans

PubMed Central

Hancock, Angela M.; Witonsky, David B.; Alkorta-Aranburu, Gorka; Beall, Cynthia M.; Gebremedhin, Amha; Sukernik, Rem; Utermann, Gerd; Pritchard, Jonathan K.; Coop, Graham; Di Rienzo, Anna

2011-01-01

Humans inhabit a remarkably diverse range of environments, and adaptation through natural selection has likely played a central role in the capacity to survive and thrive in extreme climates. Unlike numerous studies that used only population genetic data to search for evidence of selection, here we scan the human genome for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations. We find a striking enrichment of genic and nonsynonymous SNPs relative to non-genic SNPs among those that are strongly correlated with these climate variables. Among the most extreme signals, several overlap with those from GWAS, including SNPs associated with pigmentation and autoimmune diseases. Further, we find an enrichment of strong signals in gene sets related to UV radiation, infection and immunity, and cancer. Our results imply that adaptations to climate shaped the spatial distribution of variation in humans. PMID:21533023

The occurrence of binary evolution pulsators in classical instability strip of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karczmarek, P.; Wiktorowicz, G.; Iłkiewicz, K.; Smolec, R.; Stępień, K.; Pietrzyński, G.; Gieren, W.; Belczynski, K.

2017-04-01

Single star evolution does not allow extremely low-mass stars to cross the classical instability strip (IS) during the Hubble time. However, within binary evolution framework low-mass stars can appear inside the IS once the mass transfer (MT) is taken into account. Triggered by a discovery of low-mass (0.26 M⊙) RR Lyrae-like variable in a binary system, OGLE-BLG-RRLYR-02792, we investigate the occurrence of similar binary components in the IS, which set up a new class of low-mass pulsators. They are referred to as binary evolution pulsators (BEPs) to underline the interaction between components, which is crucial for substantial mass-loss prior to the IS entrance. We simulate a population of 500 000 metal-rich binaries and report that 28 143 components of binary systems experience severe MT (losing up to 90 per cent of mass), followed by at least one IS crossing in luminosity range of RR Lyrae (RRL) or Cepheid variables. A half of these systems enter the IS before the age of 4 Gyr. BEPs display a variety of physical and orbital parameters, with the most important being the BEP mass in range 0.2-0.8 M⊙, and the orbital period in range 10-2 500 d. Based on the light curve only, BEPs can be misclassified as genuine classical pulsators, and as such they would contaminate genuine RRL and classical Cepheid variables at levels of 0.8 and 5 per cent, respectively. We state that the majority of BEPs will remain undetected and we discuss relevant detection limitations.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for better informed decision-making on adaptation strategies. References 1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of extremes. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 491-496 (2012). 2. Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E. & Porter, J. R. Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177 (2011). 3. Asseng, S. et al., Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim. Change. 10.1038/nclimate1916. (2013). 4. Porter, J.R., & Semenov, M., Crop responses to climatic variation . Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2021-2035 (2005). 5. Porter, J.R. & Christensen, S. Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant, Cell and Environment . doi: 10.1111/pce.12107 (2013). 6. Boogaard, H.L., van Diepen C.A., Rötter R.P., Cabrera J.M. & van Laar H.H. User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands. (1998) 7. Tao, F. & Zhang, Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 170, 146-165. (2013).

TITAN’S UPPER ATMOSPHERE FROM CASSINI/UVIS SOLAR OCCULTATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Capalbo, Fernando J.; Bénilan, Yves; Yelle, Roger V.

2015-12-01

Titan’s atmosphere is composed mainly of molecular nitrogen, methane being the principal trace gas. From the analysis of 8 solar occultations measured by the Extreme Ultraviolet channel of the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) on board Cassini, we derived vertical profiles of N{sub 2} in the range 1100–1600 km and vertical profiles of CH{sub 4} in the range 850–1300 km. The correction of instrument effects and observational effects applied to the data are described. We present CH{sub 4} mole fractions, and average temperatures for the upper atmosphere obtained from the N{sub 2} profiles. The occultations correspond to different times and locations,more » and an analysis of variability of density and temperature is presented. The temperatures were analyzed as a function of geographical and temporal variables, without finding a clear correlation with any of them, although a trend of decreasing temperature toward the north pole was observed. The globally averaged temperature obtained is (150 ± 1) K. We compared our results from solar occultations with those derived from other UVIS observations, as well as studies performed with other instruments. The observational data we present confirm the atmospheric variability previously observed, add new information to the global picture of Titan’s upper atmosphere composition, variability, and dynamics, and provide new constraints to photochemical models.« less

Variability in aerosol optical properties over an urban site, Kanpur, in the Indo-Gangetic Plain: A case study of haze and dust events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ram, Kirpa; Singh, Sunita; Sarin, M. M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Tripathi, S. N.

2016-06-01

In this study, we report on three important optical parameters, viz. absorption and scattering coefficients (babs, bscat) and single scattering abledo (SSA) based on one-year chemical-composition data collected from an urban site (Kanpur) in the Indo-Gangetic-Plain (IGP) of northern India. In addition, absorption Ängstrom exponent (AAE) was also estimated in order to understand the wavelength dependence of absorption and to decipher emission sources of carbonaceous aerosols, in particular of black carbon. The absorption and scattering coefficients ranged between 8.3 to 95.2 Mm- 1 (1 Mm- 1 = 10- 6 m- 1) and 58 to 564 Mm- 1, respectively during the study period (for n = 66; from January 2007 to March 2008) and exhibit large seasonal variability with higher values occurring in winter and lower in the summer. Single scattering albedo varied from 0.65 to 0.92 whereas AAE ranged from 0.79 to 1.40 during pre-monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The strong seasonal variability in aerosol optical properties is attributed to varying contribution from different emission sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the IGP. A case study of haze and dust events further provide information on extreme variability in aerosol optical parameters, particularly SSA, a crucial parameter in atmospheric radiative forcing estimates.

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Robot-assisted upper extremity rehabilitation for cervical spinal cord injuries: a systematic scoping review.

PubMed

Singh, Hardeep; Unger, Janelle; Zariffa, José; Pakosh, Maureen; Jaglal, Susan; Craven, B Catharine; Musselman, Kristin E

2018-01-15

Abstact Purpose: To provide an overview of the feasibility and outcomes of robotic-assisted upper extremity training for individuals with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI), and to identify gaps in current research and articulate future research directions. A systematic search was conducted using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CCTR, CDSR, CINAHL and PubMed on June 7, 2017. Search terms included 3 themes: (1) robotics; (2) SCI; (3) upper extremity. Studies using robots for upper extremity rehabilitation among individuals with cervical SCI were included. Identified articles were independently reviewed by two researchers and compared to pre-specified criteria. Disagreements regarding article inclusion were resolved through discussion. The modified Downs and Black checklist was used to assess article quality. Participant characteristics, study and intervention details, training outcomes, robot features, study limitations and recommendations for future studies were abstracted from included articles. Twelve articles (one randomized clinical trial, six case series, five case studies) met the inclusion criteria. Five robots were exoskeletons and three were end-effectors. Sample sizes ranged from 1 to 17 subjects. Articles had variable quality, with quality scores ranging from 8 to 20. Studies had a low internal validity primarily from lack of blinding or a control group. Individuals with mild-moderate impairments showed the greatest improvements on body structure/function and performance-level measures. This review is limited by the small number of articles, low-sample sizes and the diversity of devices and their associated training protocols, and outcome measures. Preliminary evidence suggests robot-assisted interventions are safe, feasible and can reduce active assistance provided by therapists. Implications for rehabilitation Robot-assisted upper extremity training for individuals with cervical spinal cord injury is safe, feasible and can reduce hands-on assistance provided by therapists. Future research in robotics rehabilitation with individuals with spinal cord injury is needed to determine the optimal device and training protocol as well as effectiveness.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis With Policy Implications.

PubMed

Harris, Catherine R; Osterberg, E Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W; McAninch, Jack W; McCulloch, Charles E; Breyer, Benjamin N

2016-08-01

To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (OR). A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated cost was $7321 ($5677-$10,000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs [OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-2.04, P = .02] compared with patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs (OR 3.2, CI 2.14-4.75, P <.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.2-2.64, P = .005). Variations in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payor type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis with Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Harris, Catherine R.; Osterberg, E. Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W.; McAninch, Jack W.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Breyer, Benjamin N.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine which factors are associated with higher urethroplasty procedural costs and whether they have been increasing or decreasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001–2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project - Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP Cost-to-Charge Ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression and expressed as Odds Ratios (OR). Results A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated costs was $7321 ($5677–$10000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.56 95% CI 1.19–2.04, p=0.02) compared to patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs OR 3.2 CI 2.14–4.75, p<0.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78 95% CI 1.2–2.64, p=0.005). Variation in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payer type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Conclusion Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. PMID:27107626

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

From Drought to Flood: Biological Responses of Large River Salmonids and Emergent Management Challenges Under California's Extreme Hydroclimatic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.

2017-12-01

California's hydroclimatic regime is characterized by extreme interannual variability including periodic, multi-year droughts and winter flooding sequences. Statewide, water years 2012-2016 were characterized by extreme drought followed by likely one of the wettest years on record in water year 2017. Similar drought-flood patterns have occurred multiple times both in the contemporary empirical record and reconstructed climate records. Both the extreme magnitude and rapid succession of these hydroclimatic periods pose difficult challenges for water managers and regulatory agencies responsible for providing instream flows to protect and recover threatened and endangered fish species. Principal among these riverine fish species are federally listed winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Central Valley steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and the pelagic species Delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Poor instream conditions from 2012-2016 resulted in extremely low abundance estimates and poor overall fish health, and while fish monitoring results from water year 2017 are too preliminary to draw substantive conclusions, early indicators show continued downward population trends despite the historically wet conditions. This poster evaluates California's hydroclimatic conditions over the past decade and quantifies resultant impacts of the 2012-2016 drought and the extremely wet 2017 water year to both adult escapement and juvenile production estimates in California's major inland salmon rivers over that same time span. We will also examine local, state, and federal regulatory actions both in response to the extreme hydroclimatic variability and in preparation for future drought-flood sequences.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

A Rehabilitation First-Tournament Between Teams of Nursing Home Residents with Chronic Stroke.

PubMed

House, Gregory; Burdea, Grigore; Polistico, Kevin; Grampurohit, Namrata; Roll, Doru; Damiani, Frank; Keeler, Samantha; Hundal, Jasdeep

2016-02-01

This study describes the BrightArm™ Duo virtual reality system (Bright Cloud International Corp., Highland Park, NJ) and determines its clinical benefit for maintenance of upper extremity function in nursing home residents who are chronic poststroke. Participants sat at a low-friction robotic table with tilt and lift capability and interacted with serious games through computerized supports that measured forearm movement and grasp. The rehabilitation simulations were designed to improve arm and hand function, increase range of motion, and improve emotional well-being and cognition (attention, memory, and executive functioning). After 8 weeks of initial intensive therapy, there were three booster periods at 8-week intervals, each consisting of four sessions over 2 weeks. The last booster was a tournament competition, where pairs of residents played games collaboratively from remote nursing homes. Participants were evaluated before and after each booster period using standardized clinical measures. Range of motion improved for 18 out of 23 upper extremity movement variables (P = 0.01) between pre- and post-tournament assessment, and the residents self-reported that they enjoyed playing with a partner (score of 4.7 out of 5.0). Participants were able to reduce game completion time through cooperative play (teamwork), and the times improved with successive sessions of the tournament. Affected hand and arm function and depression levels were maintained (no decline) after the tournament. A rehabilitation tournament using virtual reality between teams of nursing home residents chronic poststroke is the first of its kind in clinical practice. This study demonstrates its effectiveness in improving range of motion of the upper extremity while engaging residents in the maintenance program at their nursing home.

A Rehabilitation First—Tournament Between Teams of Nursing Home Residents with Chronic Stroke

PubMed Central

Burdea, Grigore; Polistico, Kevin; Grampurohit, Namrata; Roll, Doru; Damiani, Frank; Keeler, Samantha; Hundal, Jasdeep

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose: This study describes the BrightArm™ Duo virtual reality system (Bright Cloud International Corp., Highland Park, NJ) and determines its clinical benefit for maintenance of upper extremity function in nursing home residents who are chronic poststroke. Materials and Methods: Participants sat at a low-friction robotic table with tilt and lift capability and interacted with serious games through computerized supports that measured forearm movement and grasp. The rehabilitation simulations were designed to improve arm and hand function, increase range of motion, and improve emotional well-being and cognition (attention, memory, and executive functioning). After 8 weeks of initial intensive therapy, there were three booster periods at 8-week intervals, each consisting of four sessions over 2 weeks. The last booster was a tournament competition, where pairs of residents played games collaboratively from remote nursing homes. Participants were evaluated before and after each booster period using standardized clinical measures. Results: Range of motion improved for 18 out of 23 upper extremity movement variables (P = 0.01) between pre- and post-tournament assessment, and the residents self-reported that they enjoyed playing with a partner (score of 4.7 out of 5.0). Participants were able to reduce game completion time through cooperative play (teamwork), and the times improved with successive sessions of the tournament. Affected hand and arm function and depression levels were maintained (no decline) after the tournament. Conclusions: A rehabilitation tournament using virtual reality between teams of nursing home residents chronic poststroke is the first of its kind in clinical practice. This study demonstrates its effectiveness in improving range of motion of the upper extremity while engaging residents in the maintenance program at their nursing home. PMID:26741697

Don't forget about syphilis.

PubMed

Chacon, Anna H

2015-08-01

Syphilis has extremely variable manifestations that produce an extremely broad differential diagnosis. Care must be taken to consider syphilis in dermatologic and other systemic disorders as is relevant.

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

PubMed

Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

2008-02-22

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

Diagnostic performance and radiation dose of lower extremity CT angiography using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch.

PubMed

Kim, Jin Woo; Choo, Ki Seok; Jeon, Ung Bae; Kim, Tae Un; Hwang, Jae Yeon; Yeom, Jeong A; Jeong, Hee Seok; Choi, Yoon Young; Nam, Kyung Jin; Kim, Chang Won; Jeong, Dong Wook; Lim, Soo Jin

2016-07-01

Multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) angiography is now used for the diagnosing patients with peripheral arterial disease. The dose of radiation is related to variable factors, such as tube current, tube voltage, and helical pitch. To assess the diagnostic performance and radiation dose of lower extremity CT angiography (CTA) using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). Twenty-eight patients (mean, 64.1 years; range, 39-80 years) with CLI were enrolled in this retrospective study and underwent CTA using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch and subsequent intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography (DSA), which was used as a reference standard for assessing diagnostic performance. For arterial segments with significant disease (>50% stenosis), overall sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of lower extremity CTA were 94.8% (95% CI, 91.7-98.0%), 91.5% (95% CI, 87.7-95.2%), and 93.1% (95% CI, 90.6-95.6%), respectively, and its positive and negative predictive values were 91.0% (95% CI, 87.1-95.0%), and 95.1% (95% CI, 92.1-98.1%), respectively. Mean radiation dose delivered to lower extremities was 266.6 mGy.cm. Lower extremity CTA using a 128-slice dual source CT at 80 kVp and high pitch was found to have good diagnostic performance for the assessment of patients with CLI using an extremely low radiation dose. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2015.

Understanding extreme quasar optical variability with CRTS - I. Major AGN flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Drake, Andrew J.; Stern, Daniel; Mahabal, Ashish A.; Glikman, Eilat; Larson, Steve; Christensen, Eric

2017-10-01

There is a large degree of variety in the optical variability of quasars and it is unclear whether this is all attributable to a single (set of) physical mechanism(s). We present the results of a systematic search for major flares in active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey as part of a broader study into extreme quasar variability. Such flares are defined in a quantitative manner as being atop of the normal, stochastic variability of quasars. We have identified 51 events from over 900 000 known quasars and high-probability quasar candidates, typically lasting 900 d and with a median peak amplitude of Δm = 1.25 mag. Characterizing the flare profile with a Weibull distribution, we find that nine of the sources are well described by a single-point single-lens model. This supports the proposal by Lawrence et al. that microlensing is a plausible physical mechanism for extreme variability. However, we attribute the majority of our events to explosive stellar-related activity in the accretion disc: superluminous supernovae, tidal disruption events and mergers of stellar mass black holes.

Compilation of basal metabolic and blood perfusion rates in various multi-compartment, whole-body thermoregulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shitzer, Avraham; Arens, Edward; Zhang, Hui

2016-07-01

The assignments of basal metabolic rates (BMR), basal cardiac output (BCO), and basal blood perfusion rates (BBPR) were compared in nine multi-compartment, whole-body thermoregulation models. The data are presented at three levels of detail: total body, specific body regions, and regional body tissue layers. Differences in the assignment of these quantities among the compared models increased with the level of detail, in the above order. The ranges of variability in the total body BMR was 6.5 % relative to the lowest value, with a mean of 84.3 ± 2 W, and in the BCO, it was 8 % with a mean of 4.70 ± 0.13 l/min. The least variability among the body regions is seen in the combined torso (shoulders, thorax, and abdomen: ±7.8 % BMR and ±5.9 % BBPR) and in the combined head (head, face, and neck ±9.9 % BMR and ±10.9 % BBPR), determined by the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. Much more variability is apparent in the extremities with the most showing in the BMR of the feet (±117 %), followed by the BBPR in the arms (±61.3 %). In the tissue layers, most of the bone layers were assigned zero BMR and BBPR, except in the shoulders and in the extremities that were assigned non-zero values in a number of models. The next lowest values were assigned to the fat layers, with occasional zero values. Skin basal values were invariably non-zero but involved very low values in certain models, e.g., BBPR in the feet and the hands. Muscle layers were invariably assigned high values with the highest found in the thorax, abdomen, and legs. The brain, lung, and viscera layers were assigned the highest of all values of both basal quantities with those of the brain layers showing rather tight ranges of variability in both basal quantities. Average basal values of the "time-seasoned" models presented in this study could be useful as a first step in future modeling efforts subject to appropriate adjustment of values to conform to most recently available and reliable data.

Stressful environments induce novel phenotypic variation: hierarchical reaction norms for sperm performance of a pervasive invader

PubMed Central

Purchase, Craig F; Moreau, Darek T R

2012-01-01

Genetic variation for phenotypic plasticity is ubiquitous and important. However, the scale of such variation including the relative variability present in reaction norms among different hierarchies of biological organization (e.g., individuals, populations, and closely related species) is unknown. Complicating interpretation is a trade-off in environmental scale. As plasticity can only be inferred over the range of environments tested, experiments focusing on fine tuned responses to normal or benign conditions may miss cryptic phenotypic variation expressed under novel or stressful environments. Here, we sought to discern the presence and shape of plasticity in the performance of brown trout sperm as a function of optimal to extremely stressful river pH, and demarcate if the reaction norm varies among genotypes. Our overarching goal was to determine if deteriorating environmental quality increases expressed variation among individuals. A more applied aim was to ascertain whether maintaining sperm performance over a wide pH range could help explain how brown trout are able to invade diverse river systems when transplanted outside of their native range. Individuals differed in their reaction norms of phenotypic expression of an important trait in response to environmental change. Cryptic variation was revealed under stressful conditions, evidenced through increasing among-individual variability. Importantly, data on population averages masked this variability in plasticity. In addition, canalized reaction norms in sperm swimming velocities of many individuals over a very large range in water chemistry may help explain why brown trout are able to colonize a wide variety of habitats. PMID:23145341

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Griffin, Daniel; van der Sleen, Peter; Wanamaker, Alan D; Speer, James H; Frank, David C; Stahle, David W; Pederson, Neil; Copenheaver, Carolyn A; Trouet, Valerie; Griffin, Shelly; Gillanders, Bronwyn M

2016-07-01

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dissecting Magnetar Variability with Bayesian Hierarchical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Brewer, Brendon J.; Hogg, David W.; Murray, Iain; Frean, Marcus; Elenbaas, Chris; Watts, Anna L.; Levin, Yuri; van der Horst, Alexander J.; Kouveliotou, Chryssa

2015-09-01

Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behavior, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favored models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterize the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organized criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.

DISSECTING MAGNETAR VARIABILITY WITH BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Elenbaas, Chris; Watts, Anna L.

Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behavior, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favored models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here,more » we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterize the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organized criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.« less

ROBUSTNESS OF A RYTHMIC CIRCUIT TO SHORT AND LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE CHANGES

PubMed Central

TANG, LAMONT S.; TAYLOR, ADAM L.; RINBERG, ANATOLY; MARDER, EVE

2012-01-01

Recent computational and experimental work has shown that similar network performance can result from variable sets of synaptic and intrinsic properties. Because temperature is a global perturbation that differentially influences every biological process within the nervous system, one might therefore expect that individual animals would respond differently to temperature. Nonetheless, the phase relationships of the pyloric rhythm of the stomatogastric ganglion (STG) of the crab, Cancer borealis, are remarkably invariant between 7 and 23 °C (Tang et al., 2010). Here, we report that when isolated STG preparations were exposed to more extreme temperature ranges, their networks became non-rhythmic, or “crashed”, in a reversible fashion. Animals were acclimated for at least 3 weeks at 7 °C, 11 °C, or 19 °C. When networks from the acclimated animals were perturbed by acute physiologically relevant temperature ramps (11–23 °C), the network frequency and phase relationships were independent of the acclimation group. At high acute temperatures (>23 °C), circuits from the cold-acclimated animals produced less-regular pyloric rhythms than those from warm-acclimated animals. At high acute temperatures, phase relationships between pyloric neurons were more variable from animal to animal than at moderate acute temperatures, suggesting that individual differences across animals in intrinsic circuit parameters are revealed at high temperatures. This shows that individual and variable neuronal circuits can behave similarly in normal conditions, but their behavior may diverge when confronted with extreme external perturbations. PMID:22815521

The Great Plains low-level jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI simulations: Implications for changes in extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, S. J.; Barcikowska, M. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperature targets have become the cornerstone for global climate policy discussions. Given the goal of the Paris Accord to limit the rise in global mean temperature to well below 2.0oC above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5oC goal, there is increasing focus in the climate science community on what the relative changes in regional climate extremes may be for these two scenarios. Despite the successes of major climate science modeling efforts, there is still a significant information gap regarding the regional and seasonal changes in some climate extremes over the U.S. as a function of these global mean temperature targets.During the spring and summer, large amounts of heat and moisture are transported northward into the central and eastern U.S. by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) - an atmospheric river which dominates the subcontinental scale climate variability during the warm half of the year. Accordingly, the GPLLJ and its vast spatiotemporal variability is highly influential over several types of extreme climate anomalies east of the Rocky Mountains, including, drought and pluvial events, tornadic activity, and the evolution of central U.S warming hole. Changes in the GPLLJ and its variability are probed from the perspective of several hundred climate realizations afforded by the availability of climate model experiments from the Half a degree additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) effort - a suite of multi-model ensemble AMIP simulations forced by 1.5oC and 2oC levels of global warming. The multimodel analysis focuses on the variable magnitude of the seasonal changes in the mean GPLLJ and shifts in the extremes of the prominent modes of GPLLJ variability - both of which have implications for the future shifts in extreme climate events over the Great Plains, Midwest, and southeast regions of the U.S.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Time-Resolved Near-Infrared Photometry of Extreme Kuiper Belt Object Haumea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacerda, Pedro

2009-02-01

We present time-resolved near-infrared (J and H) photometry of the extreme Kuiper belt object (136108) Haumea (formerly 2003 EL61) taken to further investigate rotational variability of this object. The new data show that the near-infrared peak-to-peak photometric range is similar to the value at visible wavelengths, ΔmR = 0.30 ± 0.02 mag. Detailed analysis of the new and previous data reveals subtle visible/near-infrared color variations across the surface of Haumea. The color variations are spatially correlated with a previously identified surface region, redder in B - R and darker than the mean surface. Our photometry indicates that the J - H colors of Haumea (J - H = -0.057 ± 0.016 mag) and its brightest satellite Hi'iaka (J - H = -0.399 ± 0.034 mag) are significantly (greater than 9σ) different. The satellite Hi'iaka is unusually blue in J - H, consistent with strong 1.5 μm water-ice absorption. The phase coefficient of Haumea is found to increase monotonically with wavelength in the range 0.4 < λ < 1.3. We compare our findings with other solar system objects and discuss implications regarding the surface of Haumea.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Secondary abdominal compartment syndrome after complicated traumatic lower extremity vascular injuries.

PubMed

Macedo, F I B; Sciarretta, J D; Otero, C A; Ruiz, G; Ebler, D J; Pizano, L R; Namias, N

2016-04-01

Secondary abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) can occur in trauma patients without abdominal injuries. Surgical management of patients presenting with secondary ACS after isolated traumatic lower extremity vascular injury (LEVI) continues to evolve, and associated outcomes remain unknown. From January 2006 to September 2011, 191 adult trauma patients presented to the Ryder Trauma Center, an urban level I trauma center in Miami, Florida with traumatic LEVIs. Among them 10 (5.2 %) patients were diagnosed with secondary ACS. Variables collected included age, gender, mechanism of injury, and clinical status at presentation. Surgical data included vessel injury, technical aspects of repair, associated complications, and outcomes. Mean age was 37.4 ± 18.0 years (range 16-66 years), and the majority of patients were males (8 patients, 80 %). There were 7 (70 %) penetrating injuries (5 gunshot wounds and 2 stab wounds), and 3 blunt injuries with mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) 21.9 ± 14.3 (range 9-50). Surgical management of LEVIs included ligation (4 patients, 40 %), primary repair (1 patient, 10 %), reverse saphenous vein graft (2 patients, 20 %), and PTFE interposition grafting (3 patients, 30 %). The overall mortality rate in this series was 60 %. The association between secondary ACS and lower extremity vascular injuries carries high morbidity and mortality rates. Further research efforts should focus at identifying parameters to accurately determine resuscitation goals, and therefore, prevent such a devastating condition.

On the identification of Dragon Kings among extreme-valued outliers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, M.; Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.

2013-07-01

Extreme values of earth, environmental, ecological, physical, biological, financial and other variables often form outliers to heavy tails of empirical frequency distributions. Quite commonly such tails are approximated by stretched exponential, log-normal or power functions. Recently there has been an interest in distinguishing between extreme-valued outliers that belong to the parent population of most data in a sample and those that do not. The first type, called Gray Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (often confused in the literature with Taleb's totally unknowable Black Swans), is drawn from a known distribution of the tails which can thus be extrapolated beyond the range of sampled values. However, the magnitudes and/or space-time locations of unsampled Gray Swans cannot be foretold. The second type of extreme-valued outliers, termed Dragon Kings by Didier Sornette, may in his view be sometimes predicted based on how other data in the sample behave. This intriguing prospect has recently motivated some authors to propose statistical tests capable of identifying Dragon Kings in a given random sample. Here we apply three such tests to log air permeability data measured on the faces of a Berea sandstone block and to synthetic data generated in a manner statistically consistent with these measurements. We interpret the measurements to be, and generate synthetic data that are, samples from α-stable sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). All these data have frequency distributions characterized by power-law tails with extreme-valued outliers about the tail edges.

AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

2016-12-01

Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...

2018-02-10

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

Investigating the sources of variability in the dynamic response of built-up structures through a linear analytical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abolfathi, Ali; O'Boy, Dan J.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Fisher, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

It is well established that the dynamic response of a number of nominally identical built-up structures are often different and the variability increases with increasing complexity of the structure. Furthermore, the effects of the different parameters, for example the variation in joint locations or the range of the Young's modulus, on the dynamic response of the system are not the same. In this paper, the effects of different material and geometric parameters on the variability of a vibration transfer function are compared using an analytical model of a simple linear built-up structure that consist of two plates connected by a single mount. Similar results can be obtained if multiple mounts are used. The scope of this paper is limited to a low and medium frequency range where usually deterministic models are used for vibrational analysis. The effect of the mount position and also the global variation in the properties of the plate, such as modulus of elasticity or thickness, is higher on the variability of vibration transfer function than the effect of the mount properties. It is shown that the vibration transfer function between the plates is independent of the mount property if a stiff enough mount with a small mass is implemented. For a soft mount, there is a direct relationship between the mount impedance and the variation in the vibration transfer function. Furthermore, there are a range of mount stiffnesses between these two extreme cases at which the vibration transfer function is more sensitive to changes in the stiffness of the mount than when compared to a soft mount. It is found that the effect of variation in the mount damping and the mount mass on the variability is negligible. Similarly, the effect of the plate damping on the variability is not significant.

CAOS-CMOS camera.

PubMed

Riza, Nabeel A; La Torre, Juan Pablo; Amin, M Junaid

2016-06-13

Proposed and experimentally demonstrated is the CAOS-CMOS camera design that combines the coded access optical sensor (CAOS) imager platform with the CMOS multi-pixel optical sensor. The unique CAOS-CMOS camera engages the classic CMOS sensor light staring mode with the time-frequency-space agile pixel CAOS imager mode within one programmable optical unit to realize a high dynamic range imager for extreme light contrast conditions. The experimentally demonstrated CAOS-CMOS camera is built using a digital micromirror device, a silicon point-photo-detector with a variable gain amplifier, and a silicon CMOS sensor with a maximum rated 51.3 dB dynamic range. White light imaging of three different brightness simultaneously viewed targets, that is not possible by the CMOS sensor, is achieved by the CAOS-CMOS camera demonstrating an 82.06 dB dynamic range. Applications for the camera include industrial machine vision, welding, laser analysis, automotive, night vision, surveillance and multispectral military systems.

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

Min and Max Exponential Extreme Interval Values and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jance, Marsha; Thomopoulos, Nick

2009-01-01

The extreme interval values and statistics (expected value, median, mode, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation) for the smallest (min) and largest (max) values of exponentially distributed variables with parameter ? = 1 are examined for different observation (sample) sizes. An extreme interval value g[subscript a] is defined as a…

Variability in the management and outcomes of extremely preterm births across five European countries: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Smith, Lucy K; Blondel, Beatrice; Van Reempts, Patrick; Draper, Elizabeth S; Manktelow, Bradley N; Barros, Henrique; Cuttini, Marina; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2017-09-01

To explore international variations in the management and survival of extremely low gestational age and birthweight births. Area-based prospective cohort of births SETTING: 12 regions across Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal and the UK PARTICIPANTS: 1449 live births and fetal deaths between 22 +0 and 25 +6 weeks gestation born in 2011-2012. Percentage of births; recorded live born; provided antenatal steroids or respiratory support; surviving to discharge (with/without severe morbidities). The percentage of births recorded as live born was consistently low at 22 weeks and consistently high at 25 weeks but varied internationally at 23 weeks for those weighing 500 g and over (range 33%-70%) and at 24 weeks for those under 500 g (range 5%-71%). Antenatal steroids and provision of respiratory support at 22-24 weeks gestation varied between countries, but were consistently high for babies born at 25 weeks. Survival to discharge was universally poor at 22 weeks gestation (0%) and at any gestation with birth weight <500 g, irrespective of treatment provision. In contrast, births at 23 and 24 weeks weighing 500 g and over showed significant international variation in survival (23 weeks: range: 0%-25%; 24 weeks range: 21%-50%), reflecting levels of treatment provision. Wide international variation exists in the management and survival of extremely preterm births at 22-24 weeks gestation. Universally poor outcomes for babies at 22 weeks and for those weighing under 500 g suggest little impact of intervention and support the inclusion of birth weight along with gestational age in ethical decision-making guidelines. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Population and osmoregulatory responses of a euryhaline fish to extreme salinity fluctuations in coastal lagoons of the Coorong, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedderburn, Scotte D.; Bailey, Colin P.; Delean, Steven; Paton, David C.

2016-01-01

River flows and salinity are key factors structuring fish assemblages in estuaries. The osmoregulatory ability of a fish determines its capacity to tolerate rising salt levels when dispersal is unfeasible. Estuarine fishes can tolerate minor fluctuations in salinity, but a relatively small number of species in a few families can inhabit extreme hypersaline waters. The Murray-Darling Basin drains an extensive area of south-eastern Australia and river flows end at the mouth of the River Murray. The system is characterized by erratic rainfall and highly variable flows which have been reduced by intensive river regulation and water extraction. The Coorong is a coastal lagoon system extending some 110 km south-eastwards from the mouth. It is an inverted estuary with a salinity gradient that typically ranges from estuarine to triple that of sea water. Hypersalinity in the southern region suits a select suite of biota, including the smallmouth hardyhead Atherinosoma microstoma - a small-bodied, euryhaline fish with an annual life cycle. The population response of A. microstoma in the Coorong was examined during a period of considerable hydrological variation and extreme salinity fluctuations (2001-2014), and the findings were related to its osmoregulatory ability. Most notably, the species was extirpated from over 50% of its range during four continuous years without river flows when salinities exceeded 120 (2007-2010). These salinities exceeded the osmoregulatory ability of A. microstoma. Substantial river flows that reached the Coorong in late 2010 and continued into 2011 led salinities to fall below 100 throughout the Coorong by January 2012. Subsequently, A. microstoma recovered to its former range by January 2012. The findings show that the consequences of prolonged periods of insufficient river flows to temperate inverted estuaries will include substantial declines in the range of highly euryhaline fishes, which also may have wider ecological consequences.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A; Dahlgren, David K; Orange, Jeremy P

2017-05-01

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adapting to extreme events related to natural variability and climate change: the imperative of coupling technology with strong regulation and governance.

PubMed

Kythreotis, A P; Mercer, T G; Frostick, L E

2013-09-03

In recent years there has been an increase in extreme events related to natural variability (such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes) and climate change (such as flooding and more extreme weather). Developing innovative technologies is crucial in making society more resilient to such events. However, little emphasis has been placed on the role of human decision-making in maximizing the positive impacts of technological developments. This is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate adaptation options and the privatization of existing infrastructure, which can leave people exposed to increasing risk. This work examines the need for more robust government regulation and legislation to complement developments and innovations in technology in order to protect communities against such extreme events.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Continuous salinity and temperature data from san francisco estuary, 19822002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shellenbarger, G.G.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinityfreshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from -0.0020 to -0.0096 (m3 s-1) -1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.61.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable. ?? 2011 Coastal Education & Research Foundation.

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

Selection and characterization of naturally occurring single-domain (IgNAR) antibody fragments from immunized sharks by phage display.

PubMed

Dooley, Helen; Flajnik, Martin F; Porter, Andrew J

2003-09-01

The novel immunoglobulin isotype novel antigen receptor (IgNAR) is found in cartilaginous fish and is composed of a heavy-chain homodimer that does not associate with light chains. The variable regions of IgNAR function as independent domains similar to those found in the heavy-chain immunoglobulins of Camelids. Here, we describe the successful cloning and generation of a phage-displayed, single-domain library based upon the variable domain of IgNAR. Selection of such a library generated from nurse sharks (Ginglymostoma cirratum) immunized with the model antigen hen egg-white lysozyme (HEL) enabled the successful isolation of intact antigen-specific binders matured in vivo. The selected variable domains were shown to be functionally expressed in Escherichia coli, extremely stable, and bind to antigen specifically with an affinity in the nanomolar range. This approach can therefore be considered as an alternative route for the isolation of minimal antigen-binding fragments with favorable characteristics.

Evidence of Deterministic Components in the Apparent Randomness of GRBs: Clues of a Chaotic Dynamic

PubMed Central

Greco, G.; Rosa, R.; Beskin, G.; Karpov, S.; Romano, L.; Guarnieri, A.; Bartolini, C.; Bedogni, R.

2011-01-01

Prompt γ-ray emissions from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) exhibit a vast range of extremely complex temporal structures with a typical variability time-scale significantly short – as fast as milliseconds. This work aims to investigate the apparent randomness of the GRB time profiles making extensive use of nonlinear techniques combining the advanced spectral method of the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the classical tools provided by the Chaos Theory. Despite their morphological complexity, we detect evidence of a non stochastic short-term variability during the overall burst duration – seemingly consistent with a chaotic behavior. The phase space portrait of such variability shows the existence of a well-defined strange attractor underlying the erratic prompt emission structures. This scenario can shed new light on the ultra-relativistic processes believed to take place in GRB explosions and usually associated with the birth of a fast-spinning magnetar or accretion of matter onto a newly formed black hole. PMID:22355609

Evidence of deterministic components in the apparent randomness of GRBs: clues of a chaotic dynamic.

PubMed

Greco, G; Rosa, R; Beskin, G; Karpov, S; Romano, L; Guarnieri, A; Bartolini, C; Bedogni, R

2011-01-01

Prompt γ-ray emissions from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) exhibit a vast range of extremely complex temporal structures with a typical variability time-scale significantly short - as fast as milliseconds. This work aims to investigate the apparent randomness of the GRB time profiles making extensive use of nonlinear techniques combining the advanced spectral method of the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the classical tools provided by the Chaos Theory. Despite their morphological complexity, we detect evidence of a non stochastic short-term variability during the overall burst duration - seemingly consistent with a chaotic behavior. The phase space portrait of such variability shows the existence of a well-defined strange attractor underlying the erratic prompt emission structures. This scenario can shed new light on the ultra-relativistic processes believed to take place in GRB explosions and usually associated with the birth of a fast-spinning magnetar or accretion of matter onto a newly formed black hole.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Patterns of amino acid conservation in human and animal immunodeficiency viruses.

PubMed

Voitenko, Olga S; Dhroso, Andi; Feldmann, Anna; Korkin, Dmitry; Kalinina, Olga V

2016-09-01

Due to their high genomic variability, RNA viruses and retroviruses present a unique opportunity for detailed study of molecular evolution. Lentiviruses, with HIV being a notable example, are one of the best studied viral groups: hundreds of thousands of sequences are available together with experimentally resolved three-dimensional structures for most viral proteins. In this work, we use these data to study specific patterns of evolution of the viral proteins, and their relationship to protein interactions and immunogenicity. We propose a method for identification of two types of surface residues clusters with abnormal conservation: extremely conserved and extremely variable clusters. We identify them on the surface of proteins from HIV and other animal immunodeficiency viruses. Both types of clusters are overrepresented on the interaction interfaces of viral proteins with other proteins, nucleic acids or low molecular-weight ligands, both in the viral particle and between the virus and its host. In the immunodeficiency viruses, the interaction interfaces are not more conserved than the corresponding proteins on an average, and we show that extremely conserved clusters coincide with protein-protein interaction hotspots, predicted as the residues with the largest energetic contribution to the interaction. Extremely variable clusters have been identified here for the first time. In the HIV-1 envelope protein gp120, they overlap with known antigenic sites. These antigenic sites also contain many residues from extremely conserved clusters, hence representing a unique interacting interface enriched both in extremely conserved and in extremely variable clusters of residues. This observation may have important implication for antiretroviral vaccine development. A Python package is available at https://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/publications/viral-ppi-pred/ voitenko@mpi-inf.mpg.de or kalinina@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Revealing the ultrafast outflow in IRAS 13224-3809 through spectral variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, M. L.; Alston, W. N.; Buisson, D. J. K.; Fabian, A. C.; Jiang, J.; Kara, E.; Lohfink, A.; Pinto, C.; Reynolds, C. S.

2017-08-01

We present an analysis of the long-term X-ray variability of the extreme narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy IRAS 13224-3809 using principal component analysis (PCA) and fractional excess variability (Fvar) spectra to identify model-independent spectral components. We identify a series of variability peaks in both the first PCA component and Fvar spectrum which correspond to the strongest predicted absorption lines from the ultrafast outflow (UFO) discovered by Parker et al. (2017). We also find higher order PCA components, which correspond to variability of the soft excess and reflection features. The subtle differences between RMS and PCA results argue that the observed flux-dependence of the absorption is due to increased ionization of the gas, rather than changes in column density or covering fraction. This result demonstrates that we can detect outflows from variability alone and that variability studies of UFOs are an extremely promising avenue for future research.

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: The C IV Blueshift, Its Variability, and Its Dependence Upon Quasar Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mouyuan; Xue, Yongquan; Richards, Gordon T.; Trump, Jonathan R.; Shen, Yue; Brandt, W. N.; Schneider, D. P.

2018-02-01

We use the multi-epoch spectra of 362 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project to investigate the dependence of the blueshift of C IV relative to Mg II on quasar properties. We confirm that high-blueshift sources tend to have low C IV equivalent widths (EWs), and that the low-EW sources span a range of blueshift. Other high-ionization lines, such as He II, also show similar blueshift properties. The ratio of the line width (measured as both the full width at half maximum and the velocity dispersion) of C IV to that of Mg II increases with blueshift. Quasar variability enhances the connection between the C IV blueshift and quasar properties (e.g., EW). The variability of the Mg II line center (i.e., the wavelength that bisects the cumulative line flux) increases with blueshift. In contrast, the C IV line center shows weaker variability at the extreme blueshifts. Quasars with the high-blueshift C IV lines tend to have less variable continuum emission, when controlling for EW, luminosity, and redshift. Our results support the scenario that high-blueshift sources tend to have large Eddington ratios.

Flexible and scalable methods for quantifying stochastic variability in the era of massive time-domain astronomical data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Brandon C.; Becker, Andrew C.; Sobolewska, Malgosia

2014-06-10

We present the use of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models as a method for estimating the variability features of a light curve, and in particular its power spectral density (PSD). CARMA models fully account for irregular sampling and measurement errors, making them valuable for quantifying variability, forecasting and interpolating light curves, and variability-based classification. We show that the PSD of a CARMA model can be expressed as a sum of Lorentzian functions, which makes them extremely flexible and able to model a broad range of PSDs. We present the likelihood function for light curves sampled from CARMA processes, placingmore » them on a statistically rigorous foundation, and we present a Bayesian method to infer the probability distribution of the PSD given the measured light curve. Because calculation of the likelihood function scales linearly with the number of data points, CARMA modeling scales to current and future massive time-domain data sets. We conclude by applying our CARMA modeling approach to light curves for an X-ray binary, two active galactic nuclei, a long-period variable star, and an RR Lyrae star in order to illustrate their use, applicability, and interpretation.« less

Oilbirds produce echolocation signals beyond their best hearing range and adjust signal design to natural light conditions

PubMed Central

Brinkløv, Signe; Elemans, Coen P. H.

2017-01-01

Oilbirds are active at night, foraging for fruits using keen olfaction and extremely light-sensitive eyes, and echolocate as they leave and return to their cavernous roosts. We recorded the echolocation behaviour of wild oilbirds using a multi-microphone array as they entered and exited their roosts under different natural light conditions. During echolocation, the birds produced click bursts (CBs) lasting less than 10 ms and consisting of a variable number (2–8) of clicks at 2–3 ms intervals. The CBs have a bandwidth of 7–23 kHz at −6 dB from signal peak frequency. We report on two unique characteristics of this avian echolocation system. First, oilbirds reduce both the energy and number of clicks in their CBs under conditions of clear, moonlit skies, compared with dark, moonless nights. Second, we document a frequency mismatch between the reported best frequency of oilbird hearing (approx. 2 kHz) and the bandwidth of their echolocation CBs. This unusual signal-to-sensory system mismatch probably reflects avian constraints on high-frequency hearing but may still allow oilbirds fine-scale, close-range detail resolution at the upper extreme (approx. 10 kHz) of their presumed hearing range. Alternatively, oilbirds, by an as-yet unknown mechanism, are able to hear frequencies higher than currently appreciated. PMID:28573036

Comprehensive numerical methodology for direct numerical simulations of compressible Rayleigh-Taylor instability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reckinger, Scott James; Livescu, Daniel; Vasilyev, Oleg V.

A comprehensive numerical methodology has been developed that handles the challenges introduced by considering the compressive nature of Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI) systems, which include sharp interfacial density gradients on strongly stratified background states, acoustic wave generation and removal at computational boundaries, and stratification-dependent vorticity production. The computational framework is used to simulate two-dimensional single-mode RTI to extreme late-times for a wide range of flow compressibility and variable density effects. The results show that flow compressibility acts to reduce the growth of RTI for low Atwood numbers, as predicted from linear stability analysis.

Ellipsometric Analysis of Contaminant Layer on Optical Witness Samples from MISSE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norwood, Joseph K.

2007-01-01

Several optical witness samples included in the Materials for International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) trays have been analyzed with a variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometer or VASE. Witness samples of gold or platinum mirrors are extremely useful as collectors of space-borne contamination, due to the relative inertness of these noble metals in the atomic oxygen-rich environment of LEO. Highly accurate thickness measurements, typically at the sub-nanometer scale, may be achieved with this method, which uses polarized light in a spectral range of 300 to 1300 nanometers at several angles of incidence to the sample surface.

The importance of range edges for an irruptive species during extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate where more frequent extreme weather may be more common, conservation strategies for weather-sensitive species may require consideration of habitat in the edges of species’ ranges, even though non-core areas may be unoccupied in ‘normal’ years. Our results highlight the conservation importance of range edges in providing refuge from extreme events, such as drought, and climate change.

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks - a comparative assessment of statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

2017-04-01

The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend the use of conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of the study directly address road and traffic management but can be transferred to a range of other environmental variables including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, A. L.

2016-12-01

The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

2011-08-01

The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Gu, G.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2005-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Normative Data for the Cognitively Intact Oldest-Old: The Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Miller, Ivy N; Himali, Jayandra J; Beiser, Alexa S; Murabito, Joanne M; Seshadri, Sudha; Wolf, Philip A; Au, Rhoda

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: The number of individuals who reach extreme age is quickly increasing. Much of the current literature focuses on impaired cognition in extreme age, and debate continues regarding what constitutes "normal" cognition in extreme age. This study aimed to provide oldest-old normative data and to compare cognitive performances of cognitively intact elderly individuals from the Framingham Heart Study. A total of 1302 individuals aged 65+ years from the Framingham Heart Study were separated into 5-year age bands and compared on cognitive tests. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted, adjusting for gender, the Wide Range Achievement Test-Third Edition (WRAT-III) Reading score, and cohort. Analyses also included comparisons between 418 individuals aged 80+ and 884 individuals aged 65-79, and comparisons within oldest-old age bands. Normative data for all participants are presented. Significant differences were found on most tests between age groups in the overall analysis between young-old and oldest-old, and analysis of oldest-old age bands also revealed select significant differences (all ps <.05). As aging increases, significant cognitive differences and increased variability in performances are evident. These results support the use of age-appropriate normative data for oldest-old individuals.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Operative Treatment of Lymphedema Using Suction-Assisted Lipectomy.

PubMed

Greene, Arin K; Maclellan, Reid A

2016-09-01

Surgical management of lymphedema includes removal of affected tissues (excisional procedures), or operations that create new lymphatic connections (physiologic procedures). The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of one type of excisional procedure, suction-assisted lipectomy, for extremity lymphedema. Patients treated in our Lymphedema Program between 2007 and 2015 with liposuction that had postoperative follow-up were reviewed. The diagnosis of lymphedema was made by history/physical examination and confirmed with lymphoscintigraphy. Patient sex, age, type of lymphedema (primary or secondary), location of disease, infection history, volume of lipoaspirate, and reduction of extremity volume were recorded. Fifteen patients were included, mean age was 45 years (range, 17-71). Six patients had secondary upper extremity lymphedema, and 9 patients had lower limb disease. Eight patients had a history of repeated cellulitis involving the lymphedematous extremity. Mean lipoaspirate volume was 1612 mL (range, 1200-2800) for the upper extremity and 2902 mL (range, 2000-4800) for the lower limb. Postoperative follow-up averaged 3.1 years. The mean reduction in excess extremity volume was 73% (range, 48% to 94%), and patients reported improvement in their quality of life. Suction-assisted lipectomy is an effective technique to reduce extremity volume for patients with lymphedema.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

Multifractal comparison of the extremes of rain rates and integrated vapour content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, Auguste; Ni, Vincent; Bosser, Pierre; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2015-04-01

Rainfall extremes are studied through the analyse of three related fields measured with the help of co-located devices installed in the roof of the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech building: (i) Integrated Water Vapour (IWV); it corresponds the amount of water vapour present in the vertical columns between a GPS ground receiver and corresponding satellites. It is estimated from the time shift between the expected duration the signal needs to reach the receiver (the two positions are known) and the actual one (ii) Rain rate measured by three optical disdrometers of two different types (Campbell Scientific PWS100 and OTT Parsivel2) (iii) Relative humidity measured by a dedicated sensor First the correlations between these quantities during significant events is analysed. It appears that although IWV tends to decrease (vapour condense to form drops that fall) and relative humidity to increase during a rainfall event, it turns out difficult to quantitatively characterize this link. It is possibly due to the fact that the scale gap between a punctual measure for the rain rate and an average over a few km height column for the IWV is too large. Finally the scaling features of these three fields are investigated with the help of the Universal Multifractal framework which has been extensively used to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variable over wide ranges of scales. Only three parameters are used to characterize variability across scales: C1 the mean intermittency, alpha the multifractality index and H the non-conservative exponent. Retrieved features are compared and the notion of maximum observable singularity is used to quantify the extremes of the various fields. Authors acknowledge the financial support of the Interreg IV NEW RainGain project (www.raingain.eu) and the chair "hydrology for resilient cities" sponsored by Véolia, and the Climate-KIC Blue Green Dream project (bgd.org.uk/).

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

Disentangling environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in a Mediterranean hotspot.

PubMed

Molina-Venegas, Rafael; Aparicio, Abelardo; Pina, Francisco José; Valdés, Benito; Arroyo, Juan

2013-10-01

We determined the environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in the Baetic-Rifan region, a plant biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean. A catalog of the whole flora of Andalusia and northern Morocco, the region that includes most of the Baetic-Rifan complex, was compiled using recent comprehensive floristic catalogs. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the different ecoregions of Andalusia and northern Morocco were conducted to determine their floristic affinities. Diversity patterns were studied further by focusing on regional endemic taxa. Endemic and nonendemic alpha diversities were regressed to several environmental variables. Finally, semi-partial regressions on distance matrices were conducted to extract the respective contributions of climatic, altitudinal, lithological, and geographical distance matrices to beta diversity in endemic and nonendemic taxa. We found that West Rifan plant assemblages had more similarities with Andalusian ecoregions than with other nearby northern Morocco ecoregions. The endemic alpha diversity was explained relatively well by the environmental variables related to summer drought and extreme temperature values. Of all the variables, geographical distance contributed by far the most to spatial turnover in species diversity in the Baetic-Rifan hotspot. In the Baetic range, elevation was the most significant driver of nonendemic species beta diversity, while lithology and elevation were the main drivers of endemic beta diversity. Despite the fact that Andalusia and northern Morocco are presently separated by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the Baetic and Rifan mountain ranges have many floristic similarities - especially in their western ranges - due to past migration of species across the Strait of Gibraltar. Climatic variables could be shaping the spatial distribution of endemic species richness throughout the Baetic-Rifan hotspot. Determinants of spatial turnover in biodiversity in the Baetic-Rifan hotspot vary in importance between endemic and nonendemic species.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-01-01

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

PubMed

Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-02-13

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments

DOE PAGES

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A.; ...

2017-04-02

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitationmore » changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. Here, we used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. Finally, this highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.« less

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

2017-10-01

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors in the development of personality disturbance.

PubMed

Depue, Richard A

2009-01-01

A dimensional model of personality disturbance is presented that is defined by extreme values on interacting subsets of seven major personality traits. Being at the extreme has marked effects on the threshold for eliciting those traits under stimulus conditions: that is, the extent to which the environment affects the neurobiological functioning underlying the traits. To explore the nature of development of extreme values on these traits, each trait is discussed in terms of three major issues: (a) the neurobiological variables associated with the trait, (b) individual variation in this neurobiology as a function of genetic polymorphisms, and (c) the effects of environmental adversity on these neurobiological variables through the action of epigenetic processes. It is noted that gene-environment interaction appears to be dependent on two main factors: (a) both genetic and environmental variables appear to have the most profound and enduring effects when they exert their effects during early postnatal periods, times when the forebrain is undergoing exuberant experience-expectant dendritic and axonal growth; and (b) environmental effects on neurobiology are strongly modified by individual differences in "traitlike" functioning of neurobiological variables. A model of the nature of the interaction between environmental and neurobiological variables in the development of personality disturbance is presented.

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions. PMID:27532008

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries.

PubMed

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6-32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6-11) and 9.24 (range 6-11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4-7) and 5.19 (range 3-8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6-8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation.

Reliability of the mangled extremity severity score in combat-related upper and lower extremity injuries

PubMed Central

Ege, Tolga; Unlu, Aytekin; Tas, Huseyin; Bek, Dogan; Turkan, Selim; Cetinkaya, Aytac

2015-01-01

Background: Decision of limb salvage or amputation is generally aided with several trauma scoring systems such as the mangled extremity severity score (MESS). However, the reliability of the injury scores in the settling of open fractures due to explosives and missiles is challenging. Mortality and morbidity of the extremity trauma due to firearms are generally associated with time delay in revascularization, injury mechanism, anatomy of the injured site, associated injuries, age and the environmental circumstance. The purpose of the retrospective study was to evaluate the extent of extremity injuries due to ballistic missiles and to detect the reliability of mangled extremity severity score (MESS) in both upper and lower extremities. Materials and Methods: Between 2004 and 2014, 139 Gustillo Anderson Type III open fractures of both the upper and lower extremities were enrolled in the study. Data for patient age, fire arm type, transporting time from the field to the hospital (and the method), injury severity scores, MESS scores, fracture types, amputation levels, bone fixation methods and postoperative infections and complications retrieved from the two level-2 trauma center's data base. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the MESS were calculated to detect the ability in deciding amputation in the mangled limb. Results: Amputation was performed in 39 extremities and limb salvage attempted in 100 extremities. The mean followup time was 14.6 months (range 6–32 months). In the amputated group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremity were 8.8 (range 6–11) and 9.24 (range 6–11), respectively. In the limb salvage group, the mean MESS scores for upper and lower extremities were 5.29 (range 4–7) and 5.19 (range 3–8), respectively. Sensitivity of MESS in upper and lower extremities were calculated as 80% and 79.4% and positive predictive values detected as 55.55% and 83.3%, respectively. Specificity of MESS score for upper and lower extremities was 84% and 86.6%; negative predictive values were calculated as 95.45% and 90.2%, respectively. Conclusion: MESS is not predictive in combat related extremity injuries especially if between a score of 6–8. Limb ischemia and presence or absence of shock can be used in initial decision-making for amputation. PMID:26806974

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fix, Miranda J.; Cooley, Daniel; Hodzic, Alma; Gilleland, Eric; Russell, Brook T.; Porter, William C.; Pfister, Gabriele G.

2018-03-01

We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996-2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

PubMed Central

Meehl, Gerald A.

2017-01-01

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483866

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

PubMed

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Drought as a Catalyst for Early Medieval European Subsistence Crises and Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludlow, Francis; Cook, Edward; Kostick, Conor; McCormick, Michael

2016-04-01

Tree-ring records provide one of most reliable means of reconstructing past climatic conditions, from longer-term multi-decadal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation to inter-annual variability, including years that experienced extreme weather. When combined with written records of past societal behaviour and the incidence of major societal stresses (e.g., famine, disease, and conflict), such records hold the potential to shed new light on historical interactions between climate and society. Recent years have seen the continued development of long dendroclimatic reconstructions, including, most recently the development of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA; Cook et al., 2015) which for the first time makes available a robust reconstruction of spring-summer hydroclimatic conditions and extremes for the greater European region, including the entirety of the Dark Ages. In this paper, we examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and well-dated reports of severe drought in early medieval European annals and chronicles, and find a clear statistical correspondence, further confirming the accuracy of the OWDA and its importance as an independent record of hydroclimatic extremes, a resource that can now be drawn upon in both paleoclimatology and studies of climatic impacts on human society. We proceed to examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and the incidence of a range of major societal stresses (scarcity and famine, epidemic disease, and mass human mortality) drawn from an exhaustive survey of early medieval European annals and chronicles. The outcome of this comparison firmly implicates drought as a significant driver of major societal stresses during early medieval times. Using a record of the violent killings of societal elites recorded on a continuous annual basis in medieval Irish monastic annals, we further examine the role of hydroclimatic extremes as triggers in medieval violence and conflict.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limsakul, Atsamon; Singhruck, Patama

2016-03-01

Based on quality-controlled daily station data, long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation indices during 1955-2014 were examined for Thailand. An analysis showed that while precipitation events have been less frequent across most of Thailand, they have become more intense. Moreover, the indices measuring the magnitude of intense precipitation events indicate a trend toward wetter conditions, with heavy precipitation contributing a greater fraction to annual totals. One consequence of this change is the increased frequency and severity of flash floods as recently evidenced in many parts of Thailand. On interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, significant relationships between variability of precipitation indices and the indices for the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were found. These results provide additional evidence that large-scale climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean are remote drivers of variability in Thailand's total and extreme precipitation. Thailand tended to have greater amounts of precipitation and more extreme events during La Niña years and the PDO cool phase, and vice versa during El Niño years and the PDO warm phase. Another noteworthy finding is that in 2011 Thailand experienced extensive flooding in a year characterized by exceptionally extreme precipitation events. Our results are consistent with the regional studies for the Asia-Pacific Network. However, this study provides a more detailed picture of coherent trends at a station scale and documents changes that have occurred in the twenty-first century, both of which help to inform decisions concerning effective management strategies.

Nine Hundred Years of Weekly Streamflows: Stochastic Downscaling of Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauchyn, David; Ilich, Nesa

2017-11-01

We combined the methods and advantages of stochastic hydrology and paleohydrology to estimate 900 years of weekly flows for the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers at Edmonton and Medicine Hat, Alberta, respectively. Regression models of water-year streamflow were constructed using historical naturalized flow data and a pool of 196 tree-ring (earlywood, latewood, and annual) ring-width chronologies from 76 sites. The tree-ring models accounted for up to 80% of the interannual variability in historical naturalized flows. We developed a new algorithm for generating stochastic time series of weekly flows constrained by the statistical properties of both the historical record and proxy streamflow data, and by the necessary condition that weekly flows correlate between the end of a year and the start of the next. A second innovation, enabled by the density of our tree-ring network, is to derive the paleohydrology from an ensemble of 100 statistically significant reconstructions at each gauge. Using paleoclimatic data to generate long series of weekly flow estimates augments the short historical record with an expanded range of hydrologic variability, including sequences of wet and dry years of greater length and severity. This unique hydrometric time series will enable evaluation of the reliability of current water supply and management systems given the range of hydroclimatic variability and extremes contained in the stochastic paleohydrology. It also could inform evaluation of the uncertainty in climate model projections, given that internal hydroclimatic variability is the dominant source of uncertainty.

Complex-Spectrum Magnetic Environment enhances and/or modifies Bioeffects of Hypokinetic Stress Condition: an Animal Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Temuriantz, N. A.; Martinyuk, V. S.; Ptitsyna, N. G.; Villoresi, G.; Iucci, N.; Tyasto, M. I.; Dorman, L. I.

During last decades it was shown by many authors that ultra-low and extremely low frequency electric and magnetic fields ULF 0-10 Hz ELF 10-1000 Hz may produce biological effects and consequently may be a possible source for health problems Spaceflight electric and magnetic environments are characterized by complex combination of static and time-varying components in ULF-ELF range and by high variability The objective of this study was to investigate the possible influence of such magnetic fields on rats to understand the pathway regarding functional state of cardiovascular system Magnetic field MF pattern with variable complex spectra in 0-150 Hz frequency range was simulated using 3-axial Helmholtz coils and special computer-based equipment The effect of the real world MF exposure on rats was also tested in combination with hypokinetic stress condition which is typical for spaceflights It was revealed that variable complex-spectrum MF acts as a weak or moderate stress-like factor which amplifies and or modifies the functional shifts caused by other stress-factors The value and direction of the functional shifts caused by MF exposure significantly depend on gender individual-typological constitutional features and also on the physiological state norm stress of organism Our results support the idea that variable complex-spectrum MF action involves sympathetic activation overload in cholesterol transport in blood and also secretor activation of tissue basophyls mast cells that can influence the regional haemodynamics These

Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial variability of precipitation will help in the planning and management of the built environment more efficiently.

On Light-Like Extremal Surfaces in Curved Spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shou-Jun; He, Chun-Lei

2014-01-01

In this paper, we are concerned with light-like extremal surfaces in curved spacetimes. It is interesting to find that under a diffeomorphic transformation of variables, the light-like extremal surfaces can be described by a system of nonlinear geodesic equations. Particularly, we investigate the light-like extremal surfaces in Schwarzschild spacetime in detail and some new special solutions are derived systematically with aim to compare with the known results and to illustrate the method.

Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

2016-04-01

Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this relationship has remained stable since the early to mid-19th century. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J., 2014a. A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia, 1788-1859. Geosci. Data J. 1, 158-178. doi:10.1002/gdj3.19 Ashcroft, L., Karoly, D.J., Gergis, J., 2014b. Southeastern Australian climate variability 1860-2009: A multivariate analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 1928-1944. doi:10.1002/joc.3812

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

A Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction (1725-present) of the Position of the Summer North Atlantic Jet Shows a 20th Century Northward Shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.

2014-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and the societal, ecosystem, and economic damage related to them. The position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) controls the location of the Atlantic storm track and anomalies in the NAJ position have been related to temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe. In summer, a southern NAJ regime can result in floods in the British Isles (BRIT) and increasing odds of heat waves in the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). Variability in the amplitude and speed of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream is hotly debated as a potential mechanism linking recent mid-latitude weather extremes to anthropogenic warming. However, the hypothesis of jet stream variability as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather extremes is largely based on data sets with limited temporal extent that do not warrant robust results from a statistical significance perspective. Here, we combined two summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct interannual variability in the latitudinal position of the summer NAJ back to 1725. The two well-replicated temperature proxies counter-correlate significantly over the full period and thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions. Positive extremes in the NAJ reconstruction correspond to heatwaves recorded in the historical Central England temperature record and negative extremes correspond to reconstructed fire years in Greece. The reconstruction shows a northward shift in the latitudinal NAJ position since the 1930s that is most pronounced in the northern NAJ extremes, suggesting a more frequent occurrence of BRIT hot summers in the 20th century compared to previous centuries.

Content Range and Precision of a Computer Adaptive Test of Upper Extremity Function for Children with Cerebral Palsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montpetit, Kathleen; Haley, Stephen; Bilodeau, Nathalie; Ni, Pengsheng; Tian, Feng; Gorton, George, III; Mulcahey, M. J.

2011-01-01

This article reports on the content range and measurement precision of an upper extremity (UE) computer adaptive testing (CAT) platform of physical function in children with cerebral palsy. Upper extremity items representing skills of all abilities were administered to 305 parents. These responses were compared with two traditional standardized…

Outcome Trajectories in Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Carlo, Waldemar A.; Tyson, Jon E.; Langer, John C.; Walsh, Michele C.; Parikh, Nehal A.; Das, Abhik; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Shankaran, Seetha; Stoll, Barbara J.; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Methods are required to predict prognosis with changes in clinical course. Death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature neonates can be predicted at birth/admission to the ICU by considering gender, antenatal steroids, multiple birth, birth weight, and gestational age. Predictions may be improved by using additional information available later during the clinical course. Our objective was to develop serial predictions of outcome by using prognostic factors available over the course of NICU hospitalization. METHODS: Data on infants with birth weight ≤1.0 kg admitted to 18 large academic tertiary NICUs during 1998–2005 were used to develop multivariable regression models following stepwise variable selection. Models were developed by using all survivors at specific times during hospitalization (in delivery room [n = 8713], 7-day [n = 6996], 28-day [n = 6241], and 36-week postmenstrual age [n = 5118]) to predict death or death/neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Prediction of death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature infants is improved by using information available later during the clinical course. The importance of birth weight declines, whereas the importance of respiratory illness severity increases with advancing postnatal age. The c-statistic in validation models ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 with misclassification rates ranging from 0.28 to 0.30. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic models of the changing probability of individual outcome can improve outcome predictions in preterm infants. Various current and future scenarios can be modeled by input of different clinical possibilities to develop individual “outcome trajectories” and evaluate impact of possible morbidities on outcome. PMID:22689874

A variable-density absorption event in NGC 3227 mapped with Suzaku and Swift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuchert, T.; Markowitz, A. G.; Krauß, F.; Miniutti, G.; Longinotti, A. L.; Guainazzi, M.; de La Calle Pérez, I.; Malkan, M.; Elvis, M.; Miyaji, T.; Hiriart, D.; López, J. M.; Agudo, I.; Dauser, T.; Garcia, J.; Kreikenbohm, A.; Kadler, M.; Wilms, J.

2015-12-01

Context. The morphology of the circumnuclear gas accreting onto supermassive black holes in Seyfert galaxies remains a topic of much debate. As the innermost regions of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are spatially unresolved, X-ray spectroscopy, and in particular line-of-sight absorption variability, is a key diagnostic to map out the distribution of gas. Aims: Observations of variable X-ray absorption in multiple Seyferts and over a wide range of timescales indicate the presence of clumps/clouds of gas within the circumnuclear material. Eclipse events by clumps transiting the line of sight allow us to explore the properties of the clumps over a wide range of radial distances from the optical/UV broad line region (BLR) to beyond the dust sublimation radius. Time-resolved absorption events have been extremely rare so far, but suggest a range of density profiles across Seyferts. We resolve a weeks-long absorption event in the Seyfert NGC 3227. Methods: We examine six Suzaku and 12 Swift observations from a 2008 campaign spanning five weeks. We use a model accounting for the complex spectral interplay of three absorbers with different levels of ionization. We perform time-resolved spectroscopy to discern the absorption variability behavior. We also examine the IR to X-ray spectral energy distribution (SED) to test for reddening by dust. Results: The 2008 absorption event is due to moderately-ionized (log ξ ~ 1.2-1.4) gas covering 90% of the line of sight. We resolve the density profile to be highly irregular, in contrast to a previous symmetric and centrally-peaked event mapped with RXTE in the same object. The UV data do not show significant reddening, suggesting that the cloud is dust-free. Conclusions: The 2008 campaign has revealed a transit by a filamentary, moderately-ionized cloud of variable density that is likely located in the BLR, and possibly part of a disk wind.

Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

2017-12-01

South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

Uncovering extreme AGN variability in serendipitous X-ray source surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Edward C.; Garcia Soto, Aylin; LaMassa, Stephanie; Urry, Meg

2018-01-01

Constraints on the duty cycle and duration of accretion episodes in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are vital for establishing how most AGNs are fueled, which is essential for a complete picture of black hole/galaxy co-evolution. Perhaps the best handle we have on these activity parameters is provided by AGNs that have displayed dramatic changes in their bolometric luminosities and, in some cases, spectroscopic classifications. Given that X-ray emission is directly linked to black-hole accretion, X-ray surveys should provide a straightforward means of identifying AGNs that have undergone dramatic changes in their accretion states. However, it appears that such events are very rare, so wide-area surveys separated in time by many years are needed to maximize discovery rates. We have cross-correlated the Einstein IPC Two-Sigma Catalog with the ROSAT All-Sky Survey Faint Source Catalog to identify a sample of soft X-ray sources that varied by factors ranging from 7 to more than 100 over a ten year timescale. When possible, we have constructed long-term X-ray light curves for the sources by combining the Einstein and RASS fluxes with those obtained from serendipitous pointed observations by ROSAT, Chandra,XMM, and Swift. Optical follow-up observations indicate that many of the extremely variable sources in our sample are indeed radio-quiet AGNs. Interestingly, the majority of objects that dimmed between ~1980 and ~1990 are still (or are again) broad-line AGNs rather than“changing-look” candidates that have more subtle AGN signatures in their spectra — despite the fact that none of the sources examined thus far has returned to its highest observed luminosity. Future X-ray observations will provide the opportunity to characterize the X-ray behavior of these anonymous, extreme AGNs over a four decade span.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Hafnium isotope results from mid-ocean ridges and Kerguelen.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patchett, P.J.

1983-01-01

176Hf/177Hf ratios are presented for oceanic volcanic rocks representing both extremes of the range of mantle Hf-Nd-Sr isotopic variation. Hf from critical mid-ocean ridge basalts shows that 176Hf/177Hf does indeed have a greater variability than 143Nd/144Nd and 87Sr/86Sr in the depleted mantle. This extra variation is essentially of a random nature, and can perhaps be understood in terms of known Rb/Sr-Sm/Nd-Lu/Hf fractionation relationships. At the other extreme of mantle isotopic compositions, 176Hf/177Hf ratios for igneous rocks from the Indian Ocean island of Kerguelen show a closely similar variation to published 143Nd/144Nd ratios for the same samples. Comparison of Hf-Nd-Sr isotopic relatonships for Tristan da Cunha, Kerguelen and Samoa reveals divergences in the mantle array for ocean-island magma sources, and perhaps suggests that these irregularities are largely the result of an extra component of 87Sr/86Sr variation.-G.R.

Hafnium isotope results from mid-ocean ridges and Kerguelen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonathan, Patchett P.

1983-01-01

176Hf/177Hf ratios are presented for oceanic volcanics representing both extremes of the range of mantle HfNdSr isotopic variation. Hf from critical mid-ocean ridgebasalts shows that 176Hf/177Hf does indeed have a greater variability than 143Nd/144Nd and 87Sr/86Sr in the depleted mantle. This extra variation is essentially of a random nature, and can perhaps be understood in terms of known Rb/SrSm/NdLu/Hf fractionation relationships. At the other extreme of mantle isotopic composition, 176Hf/177Hf ratios for igneous rocks from the Indian Ocean island of Kerguelen show a closely similar variation to published 143Nd/144Nd ratios for the same samples. Comparison of HfNdSr c relationships for Tristan da Cunha, Kerguelen and Samoa reveals divergences in the mantle array for ocean island magma sources, and perhaps suggests that these irregularities are largely the result of an extra component of 87Sr/86Sr variation. ?? 1983.

[Determination of process variable pH in solid-state fermentation by FT-NIR spectroscopy and extreme learning machine (ELM)].

PubMed

Liu, Guo-hai; Jiang, Hui; Xiao, Xia-hong; Zhang, Dong-juan; Mei, Cong-li; Ding, Yu-han

2012-04-01

Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy was attempted to determine pH, which is one of the key process parameters in solid-state fermentation of crop straws. First, near infrared spectra of 140 solid-state fermented product samples were obtained by near infrared spectroscopy system in the wavelength range of 10 000-4 000 cm(-1), and then the reference measurement results of pH were achieved by pH meter. Thereafter, the extreme learning machine (ELM) was employed to calibrate model. In the calibration model, the optimal number of PCs and the optimal number of hidden-layer nodes of ELM network were determined by the cross-validation. Experimental results showed that the optimal ELM model was achieved with 1040-1 topology construction as follows: R(p) = 0.961 8 and RMSEP = 0.104 4 in the prediction set. The research achievement could provide technological basis for the on-line measurement of the process parameters in solid-state fermentation.

Significance of Environmental Variables on Flight Electronics and Design Concerns for Extreme Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazeli, K.; Kingstedt, O. T.

2017-05-01

It is critical to investigate the performance of electronic systems and their components under the environments experienced during proposed missions to improve spacecraft and robotic vehicle functionality and performance in extreme environments.

Variability of indication criteria in knee and hip replacement: an observational study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. Methods The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated. The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. Results The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high variability was detected in subjective-objective signs. Among all the surgeries performed, approximately a quarter of them could be considered to be inappropriate. Conclusions A greater inter-hospital variability was observed for objective than for subjective signs for both procedures, suggesting that the differences in clinical criteria followed by surgeons when indicating arthroplasty are the main responsible factors for the variation in surgery rates. PMID:20977745

Variability of indication criteria in knee and hip replacement: an observational study.

PubMed

Cobos, Raquel; Latorre, Amaia; Aizpuru, Felipe; Guenaga, Jose I; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Escobar, Antonio; García, Lidia; Herrera-Espiñeira, Carmen

2010-10-26

Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated.The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high variability was detected in subjective-objective signs. Among all the surgeries performed, approximately a quarter of them could be considered to be inappropriate. A greater inter-hospital variability was observed for objective than for subjective signs for both procedures, suggesting that the differences in clinical criteria followed by surgeons when indicating arthroplasty are the main responsible factors for the variation in surgery rates.

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

2013-01-01

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Disturbance Impacts on Thermal Hot Spots and Hot Moments at the Peatland-Atmosphere Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, R. M.; Kettridge, N.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Waddington, J. M.; Krause, S.

2018-01-01

Soil-surface temperature acts as a master variable driving nonlinear terrestrial ecohydrological, biogeochemical, and micrometeorological processes, inducing short-lived or spatially isolated extremes across heterogeneous landscape surfaces. However, subcanopy soil-surface temperatures have been, to date, characterized through isolated, spatially discrete measurements. Using spatially complex forested northern peatlands as an exemplar ecosystem, we explore the high-resolution spatiotemporal thermal behavior of this critical interface and its response to disturbances by using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing. Soil-surface thermal patterning was identified from 1.9 million temperature measurements under undisturbed, trees removed and vascular subcanopy removed conditions. Removing layers of the structurally diverse vegetation canopy not only increased mean temperatures but it shifted the spatial and temporal distribution, range, and longevity of thermal hot spots and hot moments. We argue that linking hot spots and/or hot moments with spatially variable ecosystem processes and feedbacks is key for predicting ecosystem function and resilience.

Actively Q-switched, thulium-holmium-codoped fiber laser incorporating a silicon-based, variable-optical-attenuator-based Q switch.

PubMed

Jung, Minwan; Han Lee, Ju

2013-04-20

An actively Q-switched thulium-holmium-codoped fiber laser incorporating an Si-based variable optical attenuator (VOA) is experimentally demonstrated. It has been shown that an Si-based VOA with a response time of hundreds of nanoseconds can be used as a cost-effective 2 μm Q switch due to its extremely wide operating bandwidth from 1.5 to 2 μm, and low electrical power consumption. In our study, the laser's slope efficiency was measured to be ~17% at an operating wavelength of 1.89 μm. The repetition rate tuning range was from 20 to 80 kHz, which was limited by the optical damage threshold and the response time. The minimum temporal pulsewidth was measured to be ~184 ns at a modulation frequency of 20 kHz, and the corresponding maximum peak power was ~10 W.

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) Multiple EUV Grating Spectrographs (MEGS): Radiometric Calibrations and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hock, R. A.; Woods, T. N.; Crotser, D.; Eparvier, F. G.; Woodraska, D. L.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, E. C.

2010-01-01

The NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), scheduled for launch in early 2010, incorporates a suite of instruments including the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). EVE has multiple instruments including the Multiple Extreme ultraviolet Grating Spectrographs (MEGS) A, B, and P instruments, the Solar Aspect Monitor (SAM), and the Extreme ultraviolet SpectroPhotometer (ESP). The radiometric calibration of EVE, necessary to convert the instrument counts to physical units, was performed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Synchrotron Ultraviolet Radiation Facility (SURF III) located in Gaithersburg, Maryland. This paper presents the results and derived accuracy of this radiometric calibration for the MEGS A, B, P, and SAM instruments, while the calibration of the ESP instrument is addressed by Didkovsky et al. . In addition, solar measurements that were taken on 14 April 2008, during the NASA 36.240 sounding-rocket flight, are shown for the prototype EVE instruments.

Quantifying the resilience of carbon dynamics in semi-arid biomes in the Southwestern U.S. to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvak, M. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Maurer, G.

2015-12-01

Semi-arid biomes in many parts of the Southwestern U.S. have experienced a range of precipitation over the last decade, ranging from wetter than average years 2006-2010 (relative to the 40-year PRISM mean), extreme drought years (2010-2011) and slightly dry-average precipitation years (2013-2015). While annual carbon uptake in semi-arid biomes of the Southwestern US is relatively low, compared to more temperate ecosystems, collectively these biomes store a significant amount of carbon on a regional scale. It is therefore of great interest to understand what impact this range in precipitation variability has on inter- and intra- annual variability in regional carbon dynamics. We use an 9 year record from 2007-2015 of continuous measurements of net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) and its components (gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re), made across a network of flux towers along an elevation/aridity gradient in New Mexico, the New Mexico Elevation Gradient (NMEG), to quantify biome-specific responses of carbon dynamics to climate variability over this time period. Biomes include a desert grassland, creosote shrubland, juniper savanna, piñon-juniper woodland, and ponderosa pine and subalpine mixed conifer forests. We compared daily, seasonal and annual NEP, GPP and Re means between pre-drought (2007-2010), drought (2011-2012), and post-drought years (2013-2015). All biomes sequestered less carbon in the drought years, compared to the pre-drought years (~30-40, 270 and 60 g C/m2 less in low and middle elevation biomes, ponderosa pine, and mixed conifer forest, respectively), as GPP in all biomes was more sensitive to the drought than Re. In the post-drought years, GPP was still only 80-90% what it was in the pre-drought years. Re, however, in all biomes except for the creosote shrubland, was 5-15% higher in the post-drought years compared to pre-drought. As a result, carbon sequestration in these biomes was 20-75% lower in the post-drought years compared to what we observed before the drought, suggesting, even 3 years post-drought, none of these biomes has recovered from the extreme drought. The large implications of this lack of resilience for the carbon sink strength in this region are discussed.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. Risks assessments, however, generally focus on univariate statistics even when multiple stressors are considered. Concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves have been observed to cause a suite of extreme impacts on natural and human systems alike. For example, they can substantially affect vegetation health, prompting tree mortality, and thereby facilitating insect outbreaks and fires. In addition, hot droughts have the potential to trigger and intensify fires and can cause severe economical damage. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health. We analyse the co-occurrence of dry and hot summers and show that these are strongly correlated for many regions, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary in order to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts, and to design adaptation strategies.

First field-based observations of δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation and other water bodies in the Mongolian Gobi desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnik Šturm, Martina; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Voigt, Christian C.; Kaczensky, Petra

2017-04-01

Hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope values of water are widely used to track the global hydrological cycle and the global δ2H and δ18O patterns of precipitation are increasingly used in studies on animal migration, forensics, food authentication and traceability studies. However, δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation spanning one or more years are available for only a few 100 locations worldwide and for many remote areas such as Mongolia data are still scarce. We obtained the first field-based δ2H and δ18O isotope data of event-based precipitation, rivers and other water bodies in the extreme environment of the Dzungarian Gobi desert in SW Mongolia, covering a period of 16 months (1). Our study area is located over 450 km north-east from the nearest IAEA GNIP station (Fukang station, China) from which it is separated by a mountain range at the international border between China and Mongolia. Isotope values of the collected event-based precipitation showed and extreme range and a high seasonal variability with higher and more variable values in summer and lower in winter. The high variability could not be explained by different origin of air masses alone (i.e. NW polar winds over Russia or westerlies over Central Asia; analyzed using back-trajectory HYSPLIT model), but is likely a result of a combination of different processes affecting the isotope values of precipitation in this area. The calculated field-based local meteoric water line (LMWL, δ2H=(7.42±0.16)δ18O-(23.87±3.27)) showed isotopic characteristics of precipitation in an arid region. We observed a slight discrepancy between the filed based and modelled (Online Isotope in Precipitation Calculator, OIPC) LMWL which highlighted the difficulty of modelling the δ2H and δ18O values for areas with extreme climatic conditions and thus emphasized the importance of collecting long-term field-based data. The collected isotopic data of precipitation and other water bodies provide a basis for future studies in this largely understudied region. (1)Burnik Šturm M., Ganbaatar O., Voigt C.C., Kaczensky P. (2016) First field-based observations of δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation, rivers and other water bodies in the Dzungarian Gobi, SW Mongolia. Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies, doi: 10.1080/10256016.2016.1231184

Normal-incidence EXtreme-Ultraviolet imaging Spectrometer - NEXUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dere, K. P.

2003-05-01

NEXUS is the result of a breakthrough optical design that incorporates new technologies to achieve high optical throughput at high spatial (1 arcsec) and spectral (1-2 km s-1) resolution over a wide field of view in an optimal extreme-ultraviolet spectral band. This achievement was made possible primarily by two technical developments. First, a coating of boron-carbide deposited onto a layer of iridium provided a greatly enhanced reflectivity at EUV wavelengths that would enable NEXUS to observe the Sun over a wide temperature range at high cadence. The reflectivity of these coatings have been measured and demonstrated in the laboratory. The second key development was the use of a variable-line-spaced toroidal grating spectrometer. The spectrometer design allowed the Sun to be imaged at high spatial and spectral resolution along a 1 solar radius-long slit and over a wavelength range from 450 to 800 Å, nearly an entire spectral order. Because the spectrograph provided a magnification of about a factor of 6, only 2 optical elements are required to achieved the desired imaging performance. Throughput was enhanced by the use of only 2 reflections. The could all be accomodated within a total instrument length of 1.5m. We would like to acknowledge support from ONR

Immunosuppressive Therapy in Treatment of Refractory Hypoglycemia in Type B Insulin Resistance: A Case Report

PubMed Central

Sirisena, Imali

2017-01-01

Type B insulin resistance is a rare syndrome characterized by fluctuating glucose levels (ranging from hyperglycemia with extreme insulin resistance to intractable hypoglycemia without exogenous insulin administration), high serum insulin levels, and insulin receptor autoantibodies. Most cases occur in the African American population in association with other underlying autoimmune systemic diseases. Treatments with high-dose steroids, immunosuppressants, and plasmapheresis have been used, with variable outcomes, in patients without spontaneous remission. We report the case of a 60-year-old African American woman with history of systemic lupus erythematosus presenting with extreme fluctuations in glucose levels, ranging from severe hyperglycemia to refractory hypoglycemia, with high serum concentration of insulin in both phases. Her presentation and phenotype were very similar to those seen in known cases of type B insulin resistance associated with insulin receptor antibodies. Treatment in other reported cases used a combination of high-dose steroids and immunosuppressants. We tried high-dose steroids, azathioprine, and intravenous immunoglobulins, which resulted in improvement and barely detectable insulin receptor antibody. We present a case of type B insulin resistance with abnormally low titers of insulin receptor antibodies despite a typical clinical course and response. Future research is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment in this rare disease. PMID:29264467

Validation of the Microsoft Kinect® camera system for measurement of lower extremity jump landing and squatting kinematics.

PubMed

Eltoukhy, Moataz; Kelly, Adam; Kim, Chang-Young; Jun, Hyung-Pil; Campbell, Richard; Kuenze, Christopher

2016-01-01

Cost effective, quantifiable assessment of lower extremity movement represents potential improvement over standard tools for evaluation of injury risk. Ten healthy participants completed three trials of a drop jump, overhead squat, and single leg squat task. Peak hip and knee kinematics were assessed using an 8 camera BTS Smart 7000DX motion analysis system and the Microsoft Kinect® camera system. The agreement and consistency between both uncorrected and correct Kinect kinematic variables and the BTS camera system were assessed using interclass correlations coefficients. Peak sagittal plane kinematics measured using the Microsoft Kinect® camera system explained a significant amount of variance [Range(hip) = 43.5-62.8%; Range(knee) = 67.5-89.6%] in peak kinematics measured using the BTS camera system. Across tasks, peak knee flexion angle and peak hip flexion were found to be consistent and in agreement when the Microsoft Kinect® camera system was directly compared to the BTS camera system but these values were improved following application of a corrective factor. The Microsoft Kinect® may not be an appropriate surrogate for traditional motion analysis technology, but it may have potential applications as a real-time feedback tool in pathological or high injury risk populations.

Productivity responses of a widespread marine piscivore, Gadus morhua, to oceanic thermal extremes and trends.

PubMed

Mantzouni, Irene; MacKenzie, Brian R

2010-06-22

Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

PubMed

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Slowly progressive aphasia associated with surface dyslexia.

PubMed

Chiacchio, L; Grossi, D; Stanzione, M; Trojano, L

1993-03-01

We report an Italian patient affected by slowly progressive aphasia (SPA) lasting since four years when he first came to our observation. During the successive four years, we documented a progressive language decline resembling transcortical sensory aphasia, associated with a reading disorder corresponding to surface dyslexia, a form extremely rare in patients with native transparent language. His performance at standard intelligence tasks remained in the normal range, without any variation. CT scan showed left temporal atrophy. We emphasize the heterogeneity of the syndrome of SPA and suggest that it can represent one of the pictures of focal cortical degenerative disease, with variable onset, progression, and evolution.

Magneto-transport properties of a random distribution of few-layer graphene patches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iacovella, Fabrice; Mitioglu, Anatolie; Pierre, Mathieu

In this study, we address the electronic properties of conducting films constituted of an array of randomly distributed few layer graphene patches and investigate on their most salient galvanometric features in the moderate and extreme disordered limit. We demonstrate that, in annealed devices, the ambipolar behaviour and the onset of Landau level quantization in high magnetic field constitute robust hallmarks of few-layer graphene films. In the strong disorder limit, however, the magneto-transport properties are best described by a variable-range hopping behaviour. A large negative magneto-conductance is observed at the charge neutrality point, in consistency with localized transport regime.

Multi-objective optimization for model predictive control.

PubMed

Wojsznis, Willy; Mehta, Ashish; Wojsznis, Peter; Thiele, Dirk; Blevins, Terry

2007-06-01

This paper presents a technique of multi-objective optimization for Model Predictive Control (MPC) where the optimization has three levels of the objective function, in order of priority: handling constraints, maximizing economics, and maintaining control. The greatest weights are assigned dynamically to control or constraint variables that are predicted to be out of their limits. The weights assigned for economics have to out-weigh those assigned for control objectives. Control variables (CV) can be controlled at fixed targets or within one- or two-sided ranges around the targets. Manipulated Variables (MV) can have assigned targets too, which may be predefined values or current actual values. This MV functionality is extremely useful when economic objectives are not defined for some or all the MVs. To achieve this complex operation, handle process outputs predicted to go out of limits, and have a guaranteed solution for any condition, the technique makes use of the priority structure, penalties on slack variables, and redefinition of the constraint and control model. An engineering implementation of this approach is shown in the MPC embedded in an industrial control system. The optimization and control of a distillation column, the standard Shell heavy oil fractionator (HOF) problem, is adequately achieved with this MPC.

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2015-07-01

Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25-100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Variability of Late-Night Salivary Cortisol in Cushing Disease: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Sandouk, Zahrae; Johnston, Philip; Bunch, Dustin; Wang, Sihe; Bena, James; Hamrahian, Amir; Kennedy, Laurence

2018-03-01

The frequency of variable hormonogenesis in patients with Cushing disease (CD) but without cyclical symptoms is unclear. To assess the frequency of variable hormonogenesis in patients presenting with CD. Over a 6-month period, patients with confirmed or suspected CD provided late-night salivary samples for up to 42 consecutive nights. Of 19 patients confirmed to have CD, 16 provided at least 7 consecutive salivary samples, and 13 provided at least 21; these 16 patients are the subjects of this report. Twelve patients had at least three peak and two trough levels of late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) but in only two patients were strict criteria for cyclical hormonogenesis fulfilled; variation was assessed as random in the others. Eight patients had de novo CD, and eight had recurrent/persistent disease. All patients with recurrent/persistent CD had two or more normal results, and in four of these patients, >50% of LNSC were normal. In six patients with de novo disease with at least one normal LNSC level, the maximum levels ranged from 1.55 to 15.5 times the upper limit of normal. Extreme fluctuations of cortisol production, measured by sequential LNSC, are common in CD. In newly diagnosed disease, this may only occasionally impair diagnostic ability, whereas in most patients with recurrent/persistent disease after pituitary surgery, LNSC is frequently within the reference range, with potential to cause diagnostic problems.

A review of blood sample handling and pre-processing for metabolomics studies.

PubMed

Hernandes, Vinicius Veri; Barbas, Coral; Dudzik, Danuta

2017-09-01

Metabolomics has been found to be applicable to a wide range of clinical studies, bringing a new era for improving clinical diagnostics, early disease detection, therapy prediction and treatment efficiency monitoring. A major challenge in metabolomics, particularly untargeted studies, is the extremely diverse and complex nature of biological specimens. Despite great advances in the field there still exist fundamental needs for considering pre-analytical variability that can introduce bias to the subsequent analytical process and decrease the reliability of the results and moreover confound final research outcomes. Many researchers are mainly focused on the instrumental aspects of the biomarker discovery process, and sample related variables sometimes seem to be overlooked. To bridge the gap, critical information and standardized protocols regarding experimental design and sample handling and pre-processing are highly desired. Characterization of a range variation among sample collection methods is necessary to prevent results misinterpretation and to ensure that observed differences are not due to an experimental bias caused by inconsistencies in sample processing. Herein, a systematic discussion of pre-analytical variables affecting metabolomics studies based on blood derived samples is performed. Furthermore, we provide a set of recommendations concerning experimental design, collection, pre-processing procedures and storage conditions as a practical review that can guide and serve for the standardization of protocols and reduction of undesirable variation. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Physical Therapy Management for Adult Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Canadian Practice Survey

PubMed Central

Anderson, Cathy M.; Jackson, Jennifer; Lucy, S. Deborah; Prendergast, Monique; Sinclair, Susanne

2010-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine current Canadian physical therapy practice for adult patients requiring routine care following cardiac surgery. Methods: A telephone survey was conducted of a selected sample (n=18) of Canadian hospitals performing cardiac surgery to determine cardiorespiratory care, mobility, exercises, and education provided to patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Results: An average of 21 cardiac surgeries per week (range: 6–42) were performed, with an average length of stay of 6.4 days (range: 4.0–10.6). Patients were seen preoperatively at 7 of 18 sites and on postoperative day 1 (POD-1) at 16 of 18 sites. On POD-1, 16 sites performed deep breathing and coughing, 7 used incentive spirometers, 13 did upper-extremity exercises, and 12 did lower-extremity exercises. Nine sites provided cardiorespiratory treatment on POD-3. On POD-1, patients were dangled at 17 sites and mobilized out of bed at 13. By POD-3, patients ambulated 50–120 m per session 2–5 times per day. Sternal precautions were variable, but the lifting limit was reported as ranging between 5 lb and 10 lb. Conclusions: Canadian physical therapists reported the provision of cardiorespiratory treatment after POD-1. According to current available evidence, this level of care may be unnecessary for uncomplicated patients following cardiac surgery. In addition, some sites provide cardiorespiratory treatment techniques that are not supported by evidence in the literature. Further research is required. PMID:21629599

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt production: the relative importance of survival and body growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.; Bailey, M.M.; Kinnison, M.T.

2009-01-01

The complex life history of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) coupled with interacting abiotic and biotic factors leads to extreme demographic variability across the species' range. Our goal was to evaluate the relative importance of survival and body growth in determining smolt production across space and time. We used passive integrated transponder tags and capture-mark-recapture analyses to estimate survival, emigration, and growth for six cohorts of presmolt Atlantic salmon in two streams (three cohorts per stream) in New England, USA. We observed remarkable among-cohort consistency in mean monthly survival during a 17-month period from age-0+ autumn to age-2+ spring yet high variability in monthly survival over shorter time intervals (seasons). Despite this latter variability, survival did not translate into amongcohort differences in proportions of age-2+ versus age-3+ smolts. Alternatively, the high variability across seasons and cohorts in mean individual growth rate did lead to differences in within-cohort proportions of age-2+ versus age-3+ smolts (regardless of stream). We conclude that in our two small study streams, variability in growth and size impacted smolt age and, ultimately, smolt production. Density-dependent effects on growth at the scale of the entire study site represent a possible mechanism underlying our observations.

The cross wavelet analysis of dengue fever variability influenced by meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

The multiyear variation of meteorological conditions induced by climate change causes the changing diffusion pattern of infectious disease and serious epidemic situation. Among them, dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne diseases distributed in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue virus is transmitted by several species of mosquito and causing lots amount of human deaths every year around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological variables to the temporal variation of dengue fever epidemic in southern Taiwan. Several extreme and average indices of meteorological variables, i.e. temperature and humidity, were used for this analysis, including averaged, maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall, maximum 1-hr rainfall, and maximum 24-hr rainfall. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship of meteorological variables and dengue fever epidemic, finding the non-stationary time-frequency relationship and phase lag effects of those time series from 1998-2011 by using cross wavelet method. Results show that meteorological variables all have a significant time-frequency correlation region to dengue fever epidemic in frequency about one year (52 weeks). The associated phases can range from 0 to 90 degrees (0-13 weeks lag from meteorological factors to dengue incidences). Keywords: dengue fever, cross wavelet analysis, meteorological factor

Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaria-Aguilar, S.; Arns, A.; Vafeidis, A. T.

2017-04-01

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea-level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter-Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

2015-06-01

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Spatial structure of monthly rainfall measurements average over 25 years and trends of the hourly variability of a current rainy day in Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2013-04-01

Climate plays a vital role in a wide range of socio-economic activities of most nations particularly of developing countries. Climate (rainfall) plays a central role in agriculture which is the main stay of the Rwandan economy and community livelihood and activities. The majority of the Rwandan population (81,1% in 2010) relies on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and the impacts of variability in climate patterns are already being felt. Climate-related events like heavy rainfall or too little rainfall are becoming more frequent and are impacting on human wellbeing.The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda could disturb the circulation for many days, damages houses, infrastructures and causes heavy economic losses and deaths. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). Globally, the spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front» mechanism. What is the hourly variability in this mountainous area? Is there any correlation with the identified zones of the monthly average series (from 1965 to 1990 established by the Rwandan meteorological services)? Where could we have hazards with several consecutive rainy days (using forecasted datas from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute)? Spatio-temporal analysis allows for identifying and explaining large-scale anomalies which are useful for understanding hydrological characteristics and subsequently predicting these hydrological events. The objective of our current research (Rainfall variability) is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. Hybrid models - mixing geostatistics and machine learning, will be applied to study spatial non-stationarity of rainfall fields. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events. Key words: rainfall variability, Rwanda, extreme event, model, mapping, geostatistics.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

PubMed

Bathiany, Sebastian; Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; Lenton, Timothy M

2018-05-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C -1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. PMID:29732409

Influence of weather extremes on the water levels of glaciated prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W.C.; Boettcher, S.E.; Poiani, K.A.; Guntenspergen, G.

2004-01-01

Orchid Meadows is a long-term wetland research and monitoring site on the Coteau des Prairie in extreme east-central South Dakota, USA. It is a 65-ha Waterfowl Production Area with numerous temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands. Ground water and surface water have been monitored at the site from 1987 to 1989 and from 1993 to the present. Vegetation has been monitored since 1993. The monitoring record includes two nearly back-to-back weather extremes: a drought in the late 1980s and a deluge in the early- to mid-1990s. Wetlands differed sharply in water levels between 3-yr dry and wet periods. For example, the time of inundation ranged among semi-permanent wetlands from 13 to 71 percent during the dry years to 100 percent during the wet years, while for seasonal wetlands, it was 0-29 percent and 46-100 percent, respectively, during dry and wet periods. Temporary wetlands had no surface water during the dry period but had standing water 0-67 percent of the time during the deluge years. The highest ground-water levels during the dry period were lower than most levels during the wet period. The difference in the water-table elevations of temporary wetlands between the periods was as much as 4 m. Ground-water levels near semi-permanent wetlands were considerably more stable (annual range of 0.3-1.6 m) than those near temporary wetlands (1.3-2.5 m). The results support the concept that weather extremes drive the wetland cover cycle and other key ecological processes in prairie wetlands. The new data from Orchid Meadows, together with other long-term data sets from North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, are useful for many research purposes, including the parameterization and testing of models that simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Software for Dosage Individualization of Voriconazole for Immunocompromised Patients

PubMed Central

VanGuilder, Michael; Donnelly, J. Peter; Blijlevens, Nicole M. A.; Brüggemann, Roger J. M.; Jelliffe, Roger W.; Neely, Michael N.

2013-01-01

The efficacy of voriconazole is potentially compromised by considerable pharmacokinetic variability. There are increasing insights into voriconazole concentrations that are safe and effective for treatment of invasive fungal infections. Therapeutic drug monitoring is increasingly advocated. Software to aid in the individualization of dosing would be an extremely useful clinical tool. We developed software to enable the individualization of voriconazole dosing to attain predefined serum concentration targets. The process of individualized voriconazole therapy was based on concepts of Bayesian stochastic adaptive control. Multiple-model dosage design with feedback control was used to calculate dosages that achieved desired concentration targets with maximum precision. The performance of the software program was assessed using the data from 10 recipients of an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) receiving intravenous (i.v.) voriconazole. The program was able to model the plasma concentrations with a high level of precision, despite the wide range of concentration trajectories and interindividual pharmacokinetic variability. The voriconazole concentrations predicted after the last dosages were largely concordant with those actually measured. Simulations provided an illustration of the way in which the software can be used to adjust dosages of patients falling outside desired concentration targets. This software appears to be an extremely useful tool to further optimize voriconazole therapy and aid in therapeutic drug monitoring. Further prospective studies are now required to define the utility of the controller in daily clinical practice. PMID:23380734

FastChem: A computer program for efficient complex chemical equilibrium calculations in the neutral/ionized gas phase with applications to stellar and planetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Joachim W.; Kitzmann, Daniel; Patzer, A. Beate C.; Sedlmayr, Erwin

2018-06-01

For the calculation of complex neutral/ionized gas phase chemical equilibria, we present a semi-analytical versatile and efficient computer program, called FastChem. The applied method is based on the solution of a system of coupled nonlinear (and linear) algebraic equations, namely the law of mass action and the element conservation equations including charge balance, in many variables. Specifically, the system of equations is decomposed into a set of coupled nonlinear equations in one variable each, which are solved analytically whenever feasible to reduce computation time. Notably, the electron density is determined by using the method of Nelder and Mead at low temperatures. The program is written in object-oriented C++ which makes it easy to couple the code with other programs, although a stand-alone version is provided. FastChem can be used in parallel or sequentially and is available under the GNU General Public License version 3 at https://github.com/exoclime/FastChem together with several sample applications. The code has been successfully validated against previous studies and its convergence behavior has been tested even for extreme physical parameter ranges down to 100 K and up to 1000 bar. FastChem converges stable and robust in even most demanding chemical situations, which posed sometimes extreme challenges for previous algorithms.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

A Projection of Changes in Landfilling Atmospheric River Frequency and Extreme Precipitation over Western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases withmore » warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.« less

Investigating synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances in an idealized moist model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, S.; Ming, Y.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have highlighted the potential utility of a theory for a "moisture-dynamical" instability in explaining the time and spatial scales of intra-seasonal variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon. These studies suggest that a localized region in the subtropics with mean low-level westerly winds and mean temperature increasing poleward will allow the formation of westward propagating precipitation anomalies associated with moist Rossby-like waves. Here we test this theory in an idealized moist model with realistic radiative transfer by inducing a local poleward-increasing temperature gradient by placing a continent with simplified hydrology in the subtropics. We experiment with different treatments of land-surface hydrology, ranging from the extreme (treating land as having the same heat capacity as the slab ocean used in the model, and turning off evaporation completely over land) to the more realistic (bucket hydrology, with a decreased heat capacity over land), and different continental shapes, ranging from a zonally-symmetric continent, to Earth-like continental geometry. Precipitation rates produced by the simulations are analyzed using space-time spectral analysis, and connected to variability in the winds through regression analysis. The observed behavior is discussed with respect to predictions from the theory.

Investigating Extreme Lifestyles through Mangrove Transcriptomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dassanayake, Maheshi

2009-01-01

Mangroves represent phylogenetically diverse taxa in tropical coastal terrestrial habitats. They are extremophiles, evolutionarily adapted to tolerate flooding, anoxia, high temperatures, wind, and high and extremely variable salt conditions in typically resource-poor environments. The genetic basis for these adaptations is, however, virtually…

Marginal versus joint Box-Cox transformation with applications to percentile curve construction for IgG subclasses and blood pressures.

PubMed

He, Xuming; Ng, K W; Shi, Jian

2003-02-15

When age-specific percentile curves are constructed for several correlated variables, the marginal method of handling one variable at a time has typically been used. We address the question, frequently asked by practitioners, of whether we can achieve efficiency gains by joint estimation. We focus on a simple but common method of Box-Cox transformation and assess the statistical impact of a joint transformation to multivariate normality on the percentile curve estimation for correlated variables. We find that there is little gain from the joint transformation for estimating percentiles around the median but a noticeable reduction in variances is possible for estimating extreme percentiles that are usually of main interest in medical and biological applications. Our study is motivated by problems in constructing percentile charts for IgG subclasses of children and for blood pressures in adult populations, both of which are discussed in the paper as examples, and yet our general findings are applicable to a wide range of other problems. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variations/Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes Derived from Satellite-Based Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.; Adler, R. F.

2017-12-01

Interannual/decadal-scale variations/changes in daily precipitation extremes are investigated by means of satellite-based high-spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products, including TRMM-TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR-Daily, GPCP 1DD, etc. Extreme precipitation indices at grids are first defined, including the maximum daily precipitation amount (Rx1day), the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the conditional (Rcond) daily precipitation rate (Pr>0 mm day-1), and monthly frequencies of rainy (FOCc) and wet (FOCw) days. Other two precipitation intensity indices, i.e., mean daily precipitation rates for Pr ≥10 mm day-1 (Pr10II) and for Pr ≥ 20 mm day-1 (Pr20II), are also constructed. Consistency analyses of daily extreme indices among these data sets are then performed by comparing corresponding averages over large domains such as tropical (30oN-30oS) land, ocean, land+ocean, for their common period (post-1997). This can provide a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these data sets in describing daily extreme precipitation events. Discrepancies can readily be found among these products regarding the magnitudes of area-averaged extreme indices. However, generally consistent temporal variations can be found among the indices derived from different satellite products. Interannual variability in daily precipitation extremes are then examined and compared at grids by exploring their relations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Linear correlation and composite analyses are used to examine the impact of ENSO on these extreme indices at grids and over large domains during the post-1997 period. Decadal-scale variability/change in daily extreme events is further examined by using the PERSIANN-CDR-Daily that can cover the entire post-1983 period, based on its general consistency with other two products during the post-1979 period. We specifically focus on exploring and discriminating the effects of decadal-scale internal variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic forcings including the greenhouse-gases (GHG) related warming. Comparisons are also made over global land with the results from two gridded daily rain-gauge products, GPCC Full-record daily (1988-2013) and NOAA/CPC Unified daily (1979-present).

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

PubMed

Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2014-07-01

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

2017-12-01

A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

Relationship of Muscle Mass Determined by DEXA with Spirometric Results in Healthy Individuals.

PubMed

Martín Holguera, Rafael; Turrión Nieves, Ana Isabel; Rodríguez Torres, Rosa; Alonso, María Concepción

2017-07-01

Muscle mass maybe a determining factor in the variability of spirometry results in individuals of the same sex and age who have similar anthropometric characteristics. The aim of this study was to determine the association between spirometric results from healthy individuals and their muscle mass assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). A sample of 161 women and 144 men, all healthy non-smokers, was studied. Ages ranged from18 to77years. For each subject, spirometry results and total and regional lean mass values obtained by full body DEXA were recorded. A descriptive analysis of the variables and a regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between spirometric variables and lean body mass, correcting for age and body mass index (BMI). In both sexes all muscle mass variables correlated positively and significantly with spirometric variables, and to a greater extent in men. After partial adjustment of correlations by age and BMI, the factor which best explains the spirometric variables is the total lean body mass in men, and trunk lean body mass in women. In men, muscle mass in the lower extremities is most closely associated with spirometric results. In women, it is the muscle mass of the trunk. In both sexes muscle mass mainly affects FEV 1 . Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions.

PubMed

Brandt, Adam R; Heath, Garvin A; Cooley, Daniel

2016-11-15

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4 ) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ∼15 000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage data sets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of the total leakage volume. While prior studies used log-normal model distributions, we show that log-normal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of data sets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.

A systematic review of pathways to and processes associated with radicalization and extremism amongst Muslims in Western societies.

PubMed

McGilloway, Angela; Ghosh, Priyo; Bhui, Kamaldeep

2015-02-01

Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in the USA and 7/7 in the UK, academic interest in factors involved in radicalization and terrorism has increased dramatically. Many related social and psychological theories have been put forward, however terrorism literature still lacks empirical research. In particular, little is known about the early processes and pathways to radicalization. Our aim is to investigate original research on pathways and processes associated with radicalization and extremism amongst people of Muslim heritage living in Western societies, that is, the group prioritized by counter-terrorism policy. Studies included in the review were original qualitative or quantitative primary research published in peer-reviewed journals, identified by searching research databases. All disciplines of journals were included. No single cause or pathway was implicated in radicalization and violent extremism. Individuals may demonstrate vulnerabilities that increase exposure to radicalization; however, the only common characteristic determined that terrorists are generally well-integrated, 'normal' individuals. Engagement in such activity is dependent on a wide range of interacting variables influenced by personal, localized and externalized factors. Further research should examine broader determinants of radicalization in susceptible populations. Future policy should follow this public health approach rather than constructing from perpetrators already committed to engaging in terrorism.

Hybrid photonic signal processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghauri, Farzan Naseer

This thesis proposes research of novel hybrid photonic signal processing systems in the areas of optical communications, test and measurement, RF signal processing and extreme environment optical sensors. It will be shown that use of innovative hybrid techniques allows design of photonic signal processing systems with superior performance parameters and enhanced capabilities. These applications can be divided into domains of analog-digital hybrid signal processing applications and free-space---fiber-coupled hybrid optical sensors. The analog-digital hybrid signal processing applications include a high-performance analog-digital hybrid MEMS variable optical attenuator that can simultaneously provide high dynamic range as well as high resolution attenuation controls; an analog-digital hybrid MEMS beam profiler that allows high-power watt-level laser beam profiling and also provides both submicron-level high resolution and wide area profiling coverage; and all optical transversal RF filters that operate on the principle of broadband optical spectral control using MEMS and/or Acousto-Optic tunable Filters (AOTF) devices which can provide continuous, digital or hybrid signal time delay and weight selection. The hybrid optical sensors presented in the thesis are extreme environment pressure sensors and dual temperature-pressure sensors. The sensors employ hybrid free-space and fiber-coupled techniques for remotely monitoring a system under simultaneous extremely high temperatures and pressures.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE PAGES

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

2016-10-14

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

Energetic Extremes in Aquatic Locomotion by Coral Reef Fishes

PubMed Central

Fulton, Christopher J.; Johansen, Jacob L.; Steffensen, John F.

2013-01-01

Underwater locomotion is challenging due to the high friction and resistance imposed on a body moving through water and energy lost in the wake during undulatory propulsion. While aquatic organisms have evolved streamlined shapes to overcome such resistance, underwater locomotion has long been considered a costly exercise. Recent evidence for a range of swimming vertebrates, however, has suggested that flapping paired appendages around a rigid body may be an extremely efficient means of aquatic locomotion. Using intermittent flow-through respirometry, we found exceptional energetic performance in the Bluelined wrasse Stethojulis bandanensis, which maintains tuna-like optimum cruising speeds (up to 1 metre s−1) while using 40% less energy than expected for their body size. Displaying an exceptional aerobic scope (22-fold above resting), streamlined rigid-body posture, and wing-like fins that generate lift-based thrust, S. bandanensis literally flies underwater to efficiently maintain high optimum swimming speeds. Extreme energetic performance may be key to the colonization of highly variable environments, such as the wave-swept habitats where S. bandanensis and other wing-finned species tend to occur. Challenging preconceived notions of how best to power aquatic locomotion, biomimicry of such lift-based fin movements could yield dramatic reductions in the power needed to propel underwater vehicles at high speed. PMID:23326566

Landsat and GRACE observations of arid wetland dynamics in a dryland river system under multi-decadal hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zunyi; Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Devadas, Rakhesh; Clarke, Kenneth; Lewis, Megan

2016-12-01

Arid wetlands are important for biodiversity conservation, but sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability and hydroclimatic events. Amplification of the water cycle, including the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and wet extremes, is expected to alter spatial and temporal hydrological patterns in arid wetlands globally, with potential threats to ecosystem services and their functioning. Despite these pressing challenges, the ecohydrological interactions and resilience of arid wetlands to highly variable water regimes over long time periods remain largely unknown. Recent broad-scale drought and floods over Australia provide unique opportunities to improve our understanding of arid wetland ecosystem responses to hydroclimatic extremes. Here we analysed the ecohydrological dynamics of the Coongie Lakes arid wetland in central Australia, one of the world's largest Ramsar-designated wetlands, using more than two decades (1988-2011) of vegetation and floodwater extent retrievals derived from Landsat satellite observations. To explore the impacts of large-scale hydrological fluctuations on the arid wetland, we further coupled Landsat measurements with Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Pronounced seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of flood and vegetation activities were observed over the wetland, with variations in vegetation growth extent highly correlated with flood extent (r = 0.64, p < 0.05) that ranged from nearly zero to 3456 km2. We reported the hydrological dynamics and associated ecosystem responses to be largely driven by the two phases (El Niño and La Niña) of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean-atmosphere system. Changes in flood and vegetation extent were better explained by GRACE-TWSA (r = 0.8, lag = 0 month) than rainfall (r = 0.34, lag = 3 months) over the water source area, demonstrating that TWS is a valuable hydrological indicator for complex dryland river systems. The protracted Millennium Drought from 2001 to 2009 resulted in long-term absence of major flood events, which substantially suppressed wetland vegetation growth. However, the 2010-11 La Niña induced flooding events led to an exceptionally large resurgence of vegetation, with a mean vegetation growth extent anomaly exceeding the historical average (1988-2011) by more than 1.5 standard deviations, suggesting a significant resilience of arid wetland ecosystems to climate variability. This study showed the ecological functioning of arid wetlands is particularly sensitive to large-scale hydrological fluctuations and extreme drought conditions, and vulnerable to future altered water regimes due to climate change. The methods developed herein can be applied to arid wetlands located in other dryland river systems across the globe.

Contrasting extremes in water-related stresses determine species survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholomeus, R. P.; Witte, J. P. M.; van Bodegom, P. M.; van Dam, J. C.; Aerts, R.

2012-04-01

In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. Especially the occurrence of both excessive dry and wet moisture conditions at a particular site has strong implications for the survival of species, because plants need traits that allow them to respond to such counteracting conditions. However, adapting to one stress may go at the cost of the other, i.e. there exists a trade-off in the tolerance for wet conditions and the tolerance for dry conditions. Until now, both large-scale (global) and plot-scale effects of soil moisture conditions on plant species composition have mostly been investigated through indirect environmental measures, which do not include the key soil physical and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Moreover, researchers only determined effects of one of the water-related stresses, i.e. either oxygen or drought stress. In order to quantify both oxygen and drought stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. High variability and extremes in resource availability can be highly detrimental to plant species ('you can only die once'). We show that co-occurrence of oxygen and drought stress reduces the percentage of specialists within a vegetation plot. The percentage of non-specialists within a vegetation plot, however, decreases significantly with increasing stress as long as only one of the stresses prevails, but increases significantly with an increased co-occurrence of oxygen and drought stress. These results confirm earlier suggestions that species that are simultaneously tolerant to multiple stresses, lack full adaptation to each potential stress. Specific adaptations to either oxygen or drought stress thus reduce the adaptive ability to the other stress and increase the impact of the other stress. We further show that the combination of stresses is detrimental particularly to endangered species, while the number of common species within a vegetation plot does not decline with increasing co-occurrence and intensification of oxygen and drought stress. Additionally, our results show significantly smaller tolerance ranges for oxygen and drought stress for endangered species than for common species. Variability in the availability of resources is thus especially detrimental to species with narrow physiological tolerance ranges. Finally, we found that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, may affect soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and drought stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. Consequently, more variable and extreme meteorological conditions may decrease the future habitat suitability, especially for specialists and plant species that are presently endangered, which has direct implications for policies to maintain species.

Satellite-Based Estimation of Water Discharge and Runoff in the Magdalena River, Northern Andes of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo, J. D.; Escobar Correa, R.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.

2016-12-01

The Magdalena River and its most important tributary, the Cauca, drain the northern Andes of Colombia. During the wet season, flood events affect the whole region and cause huge damage in low-income communities. Mitigation of such natural disasters in Colombia lacks science-supported tools for evaluating river response to extreme climate events. Here we introduce near-real-time estimations of river discharge towards technical capacity building for evaluation of flood magnitudes and variability along the Magdalena and Cauca. We use the River Watch version 3 system of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at five selected measurement sites on the two rivers. For each site, two different rating curves were constructed to transform microwave signal from TRMM, AMSR-E, AMRS-2, and GPM satellites into river discharge. The first rating curves were based on numerical discharge estimates from a global Water Balance Model (WBM); the second were obtained from the relationship between satellite signal and measured river discharge at ground gauging stations at nearby locations. Determination coefficients (R2) between observed versus satellite-derived daily discharge data, range from 0.38 to 0.57 in the upper basin, whereas in the middle of the basin R2 values vary between 0.47 and 0.64. In the lower basin, observed R2 values are lower and range from 0.32 to 0.4. Once time lags between the microwave satellite signal and river discharge from either WBM estimates or ground-based gauging stations are taken into account, the R2 values increase considerably. The time series of satellite-based river discharge during the 1998 - 2016 period show high inter-annual variability as well as strong pulses associated with the ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) cycle. Numerical runoff magnitude estimates at peaks of extreme climatic anomalies are more correlated than stream flows measured at ground-based gauging stations. In fluvial systems such as the Magdalena, characterized by high spatial variability in climate, morphology and human induced changes (e.g., deforestation and related erosion and sedimentation), satellite-based observation of water discharge is useful for flood hazard planning and mitigation

Erosion and sediment yields in the Transverse Ranges, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Kevin M.; Williams, Rhea P.

1978-01-01

Major-storm and long-term erosion rates in mountain watersheds of the western Transverse Ranges of Ventura County, Calif., are estimated to range from low values that would not require the construction of catchments or channel-stabilization structures to values as high as those recorded anywhere for comparable bedrock erodibilities. A major reason for this extreme variability is the high degree of tectonic activity in the area--watersheds are locally being uplifted by at least as much as 25 feet per 1,000 years, yet the maximum extrapolated rate of denudation measured over the longest available period of record is 7.5 feet per 1,000 years adjusted to a drainage area of 0.5 square mile. Evidence of large amounts of uplift continuing into historic time includes structurally overturned strata of Pleistocene age, active thrust faulting, demonstrable stream antecedence, uplifted and deformed terraces, and other results of base-level change seen in stream channels. Such evidence is widespread in the Transverse Ranges, and aspects of the landscape are locally more a function of tectonic activity than of the denudational process. (Woodard-USGS)

Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

2011-12-01

In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C-band radar data is used. This analysis highlights the interest of implementing X-band radars in urban areas. Indeed such radars provide the rainfall data at a hectometric resolution that would enable a better nowcasting and management of storm water. The multifractal properties of the simulated hydrographs were analysed with the help of simulated rainfall fields of resolution 111 m x 111 m x 1 min, lasting 4 hours, and corresponding to a 5 year return period event. On the whole, the discharge exhibits a good scaling behaviour over the range 4 h - 5 min. Both UM parameters tend to be greater for the discharge than for the rainfall. The notion of maximum probable singularity was used to clarify the consequences on the assessment of extremes. It appears that the urban drainage network basically reproduces the extremes, or only slightly damps them, at least in terms of multifractal statistics. The results were obtained with the financial support from the EU FP7 SMARTesT Project and the Chair "Hydrology for Resilient Cities" (sponsored by Veolia) of Ecole des Ponts ParisTech.

Extreme learning machines: a new approach for modeling dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration with and without water quality variables as predictors.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur

2017-07-01

In this paper, several extreme learning machine (ELM) models, including standard extreme learning machine with sigmoid activation function (S-ELM), extreme learning machine with radial basis activation function (R-ELM), online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM), and optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), are newly applied for predicting dissolved oxygen concentration with and without water quality variables as predictors. Firstly, using data from eight United States Geological Survey (USGS) stations located in different rivers basins, USA, the S-ELM, R-ELM, OS-ELM, and OP-ELM were compared against the measured dissolved oxygen (DO) using four water quality variables, water temperature, specific conductance, turbidity, and pH, as predictors. For each station, we used data measured at an hourly time step for a period of 4 years. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We selected several combinations of the water quality variables as inputs for each ELM model and six different scenarios were compared. Secondly, an attempt was made to predict DO concentration without water quality variables. To achieve this goal, we used the year numbers, 2008, 2009, etc., month numbers from (1) to (12), day numbers from (1) to (31) and hour numbers from (00:00) to (24:00) as predictors. Thirdly, the best ELM models were trained using validation dataset and tested with the training dataset. The performances of the four ELM models were evaluated using four statistical indices: the coefficient of correlation (R), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the root mean squared error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (MAE). Results obtained from the eight stations indicated that: (i) the best results were obtained by the S-ELM, R-ELM, OS-ELM, and OP-ELM models having four water quality variables as predictors; (ii) out of eight stations, the OP-ELM performed better than the other three ELM models at seven stations while the R-ELM performed the best at one station. The OS-ELM models performed the worst and provided the lowest accuracy; (iii) for predicting DO without water quality variables, the R-ELM performed the best at seven stations followed by the S-ELM in the second place and the OP-ELM performed the worst with low accuracy; (iv) for the final application where training ELM models with validation dataset and testing with training dataset, the OP-ELM provided the best accuracy using water quality variables and the R-ELM performed the best at all eight stations without water quality variables. Fourthly, and finally, we compared the results obtained from different ELM models with those obtained using multiple linear regression (MLR) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN). Results obtained using MLPNN and MLR models reveal that: (i) using water quality variables as predictors, the MLR performed the worst and provided the lowest accuracy in all stations; (ii) MLPNN was ranked in the second place at two stations, in the third place at four stations, and finally, in the fourth place at two stations, (iii) for predicting DO without water quality variables, MLPNN is ranked in the second place at five stations, and ranked in the third, fourth, and fifth places in the remaining three stations, while MLR was ranked in the last place with very low accuracy at all stations. Overall, the results suggest that the ELM is more effective than the MLPNN and MLR for modelling DO concentration in river ecosystems.

Evaluation of the DSM-5 Severity Indicator for Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Grilo, Carlos M.; Ivezaj, Valentina; White, Marney A.

2015-01-01

This study examined the DSM-5 severity criterion for bulimia nervosa (BN) based on the frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. 199 community volunteers classified with BN were categorized using DSM-5 severity levels and compared on demographic and clinical variables. 77 (39%) participants were categorized as mild, 68 (34%) as moderate, 32 (16%) as severe, and 22 (11%) as extreme. The severity groups did not differ significantly in demographic variables or body mass index. Shape and Weight concerns did not differ significantly across severity groups. Binge eating differed with the extreme group having higher frequency than the severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Restraint differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than the mild group. Eating concerns differed with the extreme group having higher levels than moderate and mild groups. Depression differed with the extreme group having higher levels than severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Findings from this non-clinical group provide new, albeit modest, support for DSM-5 severity rating for BN based on frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. Statistical findings indicate that differences in collateral clinical variables associated with the DSM-5 severity ratings reflect small effect sizes. Further research is needed with treatment-seeking patient groups with BN to establish the validity of the DSM-5 severity specifier and should include broader clinical and functional validators. PMID:25744910

Evaluation of the DSM-5 severity indicator for bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Grilo, Carlos M; Ivezaj, Valentina; White, Marney A

2015-04-01

This study examined the DSM-5 severity criterion for bulimia nervosa (BN) based on the frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. 199 community volunteers classified with BN were categorized using DSM-5 severity levels and compared on demographic and clinical variables. 77 (39%) participants were categorized as mild, 68 (34%) as moderate, 32 (16%) as severe, and 22 (11%) as extreme. The severity groups did not differ significantly in demographic variables or body mass index. Shape and Weight concerns did not differ significantly across severity groups. Binge eating differed with the extreme group having significantly higher frequency than the severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Restraint differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than the mild group. Eating concerns differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than moderate and mild groups. Depression differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Findings from this non-clinical group provide new, albeit modest, support for DSM-5 severity rating for BN based on frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. Statistical findings indicate that differences in collateral clinical variables associated with the DSM-5 severity ratings reflect small effect sizes. Further research is needed with treatment-seeking patient groups with BN to establish the validity of the DSM-5 severity specifier and should include broader clinical and functional validators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

2018-03-01

During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

A Variable-Selection Heuristic for K-Means Clustering.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Cradit, J. Dennis

2001-01-01

Presents a variable selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. Subjected the heuristic to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2,200 datasets. Results indicate that the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. (SLD)

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Military exercises, knee and ankle joint position sense, and injury in male conscripts: a pilot study.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Farshid; Azma, Kamran; Naseh, Iman; Emadifard, Reza; Etemadi, Yasaman

2013-01-01

The high incidence of lower limb injuries associated with physical exercises in military conscripts suggests that fatigue may be a risk factor for injuries. Researchers have hypothesized that lower limb injuries may be related to altered ankle and knee joint position sense (JPS) due to fatigue. To evaluate if military exercises could alter JPS and to examine the possible relation of JPS to future lower extremity injuries in military service. Cohort study. Laboratory. A total of 50 male conscripts (age = 21.4 ± 2.3 years, height = 174.5 ± 6.4 cm, mass = 73.1 ± 6.3 kg) from a unique military base were recruited randomly. main outcome measure(s): Participants performed 8 weeks of physical activities at the beginning of a military course. In the first part of the study, we instructed participants to recognize predetermined positions before and after military exercises so we could examine the effects of military exercise on JPS. The averages of the absolute error and the variable error of 3 trials were recorded. We collected data on the frequency of lower extremity injuries over 8 weeks. Next, the participants were divided into 2 groups: injured and uninjured. Separate 2 × 2 × 2 (group-by-time-by-joint) mixed-model analyses of variance were used to determine main effects and interactions of these factors for each JPS measure. In the second part of the study, we examined whether the effects of fatigue on JPS were related to the development of injury during an 8-week training program. We calculated Hedges effect sizes for JPS changes postexercise in each group and compared change scores between groups. We found group-by-time interactions for all JPS variables (F range = 2.86-4.05, P < .01). All participants showed increases in JPS errors postexercise (P < .01), but the injured group had greater changes for all the variables (P < .01). Military conscripts who sustained lower extremity injuries during an 8-week military exercise program had greater loss of JPS acuity than conscripts who did not sustain injuries. The changes in JPS found after 1 bout of exercise may have predictive ability for future musculoskeletal injuries.

Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti

2017-04-01

Society as a whole is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The increased frequency of wildfires is not only a result of a changing climate, but wildfires themselves also produce a significant amount of greenhouse gases that, in-turn, further contribute to global warming. I-REACT (Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies) is an innovation project funded by the European Commission , which aims to use social media, smartphones and wearables to improve natural disaster management by integrating existing services, both local and European, into a platform that supports the entire emergency management cycle. In order to assess the impact of climate change on wildfire hazards, METEOSIM designed two different System Processes (SP) that will be integrated into the I-REACT service that can provide information on a variety of time scales. SP1 - Climate Change Impact The climate change impact on climate variables related to fires is calculated by building an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CORDEX data. A validation and an Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) calibration are done to assess the changes in the past of the climatic variables related to wildfires (temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and Fire Weather Index). Calculations in the trend and the frequency of extreme events of those variables are done for three time scales: near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). SP2 - Operational daily forecast of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using ensemble data from the ECMWF and from the GLAMEPS (multi-model ensemble) models, both supplied by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its index components are produced for each ensemble member within a wide forecast time range, from a few hours up to 10 days resulting in a probabilistic output of the FWI for different regions in Europe. This work will improve the currently available information to various wildfire information users such as fire departments, the civil protection, local authorities, etc., where accurate and reliable information in extreme weather situations are vital for improving planning and risk management.

Studying Weather and Climate Extremes in a Non-stationary Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2010-12-01

The study of weather and climate extremes often uses the theory of extreme values. Such a detection method has a major problem: to obtain the probability distribution of extremes, one has to implicitly assume the Earth’s climate is stationary over a long period within which the climatology is defined. While such detection makes some sense in a purely statistical view of stationary processes, it can lead to misleading statistical properties of weather and climate extremes caused by long term climate variability and change, and may also cause enormous difficulty in attributing and predicting these extremes. To alleviate this problem, here we report a novel non-stationary framework for studying weather and climate extremes in a non-stationary framework. In this new framework, the weather and climate extremes will be defined as timescale-dependent quantities derived from the anomalies with respect to non-stationary climatologies of different timescales. With this non-stationary framework, the non-stationary and nonlinear nature of climate system will be taken into account; and the attribution and the prediction of weather and climate extremes can then be separated into 1) the change of the statistical properties of the weather and climate extremes themselves and 2) the background climate variability and change. The new non-stationary framework will use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, which is a recent major improvement of the Hilbert-Huang Transform for time-frequency analysis. Using this tool, we will adaptively decompose various weather and climate data from observation and climate models in terms of the components of the various natural timescales contained in the data. With such decompositions, the non-stationary statistical properties (both spatial and temporal) of weather and climate anomalies and of their corresponding climatologies will be analyzed and documented.

Intra-seasonal Characteristics of Wintertime Extreme Cold Events over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Taewon; Jeong, Jeehoon; Choi, Jahyun

2017-04-01

The present study reveals the changes in the characteristics of extreme cold events over South Korea for boreal winter (November to March) in terms of the intra-seasonal variability of frequency, duration, and atmospheric circulation pattern. Influences of large-scale variabilities such as the Siberian High activity, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on extreme cold events are also investigated. In the early and the late of the winter during November and March, the upper-tropospheric wave-train for a life-cycle of the extreme cold events tends to pass quickly over East Asia. In addition, compared with the other months, the intensity of the Siberian High is weaker and the occurrences of strong negative AO are less frequent. It lead to events with weak amplitude and short duration. On the other hand, the amplified Siberian High and the strong negative AO occur more frequently in the mid of the winter from December to February. The extreme cold events are mainly characterized by a well-organized anticyclonic blocking around the Ural Mountain and the Subarctic. These large-scale circulation makes the extreme cold events for the midwinter last long with strong amplitude. The MJO phases 2-3 which provide a suitable condition for the amplification of extreme cold events occur frequently for November to January when the frequencies are more than twice those for February and March. While the extreme cold events during March have the least frequency, the weakest amplitude, and the shortest duration due to weak impacts of the abovementioned factors, the strong activities of the factors for January force the extreme cold events to be the most frequent, the strongest, and the longest among the boreal winter. Keywords extreme cold event, wave-train, blocking, Siberian High, AO, MJO

Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Sydeman, William J; Frank, David C; Griffin, Daniel; Stahle, David W; García-Reyes, Marisol; Rykaczewski, Ryan R; Bograd, Steven J; Peterson, William T

2014-09-19

Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Abd Rahim, Norhan

2018-05-01

The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948-2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08-0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07-0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (- 0.01 to - 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.

Determining hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RamezaniZiarani, Maryam; Bookhagen, Bodo; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens; de la Torre, Alejandro; Volkholz, Jan

2017-04-01

The south-central Andes in NW Argentina are characterized by a strong rainfall asymmetry. In the east-west direction exists one of the steepest rainfall gradients on Earth, resulting from the large topographic differences in this region. In addition, in the north-south direction the rainfall intensity varies as the climatic regime shifts from the tropical central Andes to the subtropical south-central Andes. In this study, we investigate hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes using ERA-Interim reanalysis data of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the high resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We divide the area in three different study regions based on elevation: The high-elevation Altiplano-Puna plateau, an intermediate area characterized by intramontane basins, and the foreland area. We analyze the correlations between climatic variables, such as specific humidity, zonal wind component, meridional wind component and extreme rainfall events in all three domains. The results show that there is a high positive temporal correlation between extreme rainfall events (90th and 99th percentile rainfall) and extreme specific humidity events (90th and 99th percentile specific humidity). In addition, the temporal variations analysis represents a trend of increasing specific humidity with time during time period (1994-2013) over the Altiplano-Puna plateau which is in agreement with rainfall trend. Regarding zonal winds, our results indicate that 99th percentile rainfall events over the Altiplano-Puna plateau coincide temporally with strong easterly winds from intermountain and foreland regions in the east. In addition, the results regarding the meridional wind component represent strong northerly winds in the foreland region coincide temporally with 99th percentile rainfall over the Altiplano-Puna plateau.

Weather extremes in very large, high-resolution ensembles: the weatherathome experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rosier, S.; Massey, N.; Rye, C.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Otto, F.; Jones, R.; Wilson, S.; Mote, P.; Stone, D. A.; Yamazaki, Y. H.; Carrington, D.

2011-12-01

Resolution and ensemble size are often seen as alternatives in climate modelling. Models with sufficient resolution to simulate many classes of extreme weather cannot normally be run often enough to assess the statistics of rare events, still less how these statistics may be changing. As a result, assessments of the impact of external forcing on regional climate extremes must be based either on statistical downscaling from relatively coarse-resolution models, or statistical extrapolation from 10-year to 100-year events. Under the weatherathome experiment, part of the climateprediction.net initiative, we have compiled the Met Office Regional Climate Model HadRM3P to run on personal computer volunteered by the general public at 25 and 50km resolution, embedded within the HadAM3P global atmosphere model. With a global network of about 50,000 volunteers, this allows us to run time-slice ensembles of essentially unlimited size, exploring the statistics of extreme weather under a range of scenarios for surface forcing and atmospheric composition, allowing for uncertainty in both boundary conditions and model parameters. Current experiments, developed with the support of Microsoft Research, focus on three regions, the Western USA, Europe and Southern Africa. We initially simulate the period 1959-2010 to establish which variables are realistically simulated by the model and on what scales. Our next experiments are focussing on the Event Attribution problem, exploring how the probability of various types of extreme weather would have been different over the recent past in a world unaffected by human influence, following the design of Pall et al (2011), but extended to a longer period and higher spatial resolution. We will present the first results of the unique, global, participatory experiment and discuss the implications for the attribution of recent weather events to anthropogenic influence on climate.

Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Denny M.; Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.

2017-10-01

The geospace, or the space environment near Earth, is constantly subjected to changes in the solar wind flow generated at the Sun. The study of this environment variability is called Space Weather. Examples of effects resulting from this variability are the occurrence of powerful solar disturbances, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The impact of CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere very often greatly perturbs the geomagnetic field causing the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. Such extremely variable geomagnetic fields trigger geomagnetic effects measurable not only in the geospace but also in the ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and on and in the ground. For example, during extreme cases, rapidly changing geomagnetic fields generate intense geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Intense GICs can cause dramatic effects on man-made technological systems, such as damage to high-voltage power transmission transformers leading to interruption of power supply, and/or corrosion of oil and gas pipelines. These space weather effects can in turn lead to severe economic losses. In this paper, we supply the reader with theoretical concepts related to GICs as well as their general consequences. As an example, we discuss the GIC effects on a North American power grid located in mid-latitude regions during the 13-14 March 1989 extreme geomagnetic storm. That was the most extreme storm that occurred in the space era age.

Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model large ensemble in comparison with EURO-CORDEX results of heatwave and drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several indicators concerning heatwave frequency, duration and mean temperature a well as number and maximum length of dry periods (cons. days <1mm) are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

The impact of environmental factors on marine turtle stranding rates

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Globally, tropical and subtropical regions have experienced an increased frequency and intensity in extreme weather events, ranging from severe drought to protracted rain depressions and cyclones, these coincided with an increased number of marine turtles subsequently reported stranded. This study investigated the relationship between environmental variables and marine turtle stranding. The environmental variables examined in this study, in descending order of importance, were freshwater discharge, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall for the latitudinal hotspots (-27°, -25°, -23°, -19°) along the Queensland coast as well as for major embayments within these blocks. This study found that marine turtle strandings can be linked to these environmental variables at different lag times (3–12 months), and that cumulative (months added together for maximum lag) and non-cumulative (single month only) effects cause different responses. Different latitudes also showed different responses of marine turtle strandings, both in response direction and timing.Cumulative effects of freshwater discharge in all latitudes resulted in increased strandings 10–12 months later. For latitudes -27°, -25° and -23° non-cumulative effects for discharge resulted in increased strandings 7–12 months later. Latitude -19° had different results for the non-cumulative bay with strandings reported earlier (3–6 months). Monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall had varying results for each examined latitude. This study will allow first responders and resource managers to be better equipped to deal with increased marine turtle stranding rates following extreme weather events. PMID:28771635

Validity and utility of the DSM-5 severity specifier for binge-eating disorder.

PubMed

Dakanalis, Antonios; Colmegna, Fabrizia; Riva, Giuseppe; Clerici, Massimo

2017-08-01

To test both the concurrent and predictive significance of the new DSM-5 severity specifier for binge-eating disorder (BED) in adult outpatients. Existing data from 195 adults with DSM-5 BED who received evidence-based treatment (manual-based cognitive-behavioral therapy) in an outpatient setting were re-analysed to examine whether these patients sub-grouped according to the DSM-5 severity levels, defined by the frequency of binge-eating (BE) episodes, would show meaningful differences in a range of variables of clinical interest assessed at pre-treatment and end-of treatment abstinence from BE. Participants categorized with mild (33.3% of the sample), moderate (35.4%), severe (15.9%), and extreme (15.4%) severity of BED, based on their pre-treatment clinician-rated frequency of BE episodes, differed significantly from each other in physical characteristics (body mass index) and another sixteen variables of clinical interest assessed at pre-treatment regarding eating disorder psychopathology and putative maintenance factors, lifetime and current psychiatric disorder comorbidity, general psychiatric distress, and psychosocial impairment. The four DSM-5 severity groups were statistically indistinguishable in demographics or age-of-BED onset. However, significant between-group differences were observed in the treatment outcome, i.e., abstinence from BE, achieved by 98.5%, 66.7%, 38.7% and 6.7% of participants categorized with mild, moderate, severe, and extreme severity respectively. The outcome analyses repeated in the completer sample (n = 187) yielded the same pattern of the aforementioned intent-to-treat (N = 195) results. The findings provide support for the severity specifier for BED introduced in the DSM-5 as a means of addressing within-group variability in severity. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

2018-01-01

Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough method for simultaneously evaluating population demography in response to long-term climate effects.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-01-01

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Brazilian research on extremophiles in the context of astrobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Rubens T. D.; Nóbrega, Felipe; Nakayama, Cristina R.; Pellizari, Vivian H.

2012-10-01

Extremophiles are organisms adapted to grow at extreme ranges of environmental variables, such as high or low temperatures, acid or alkaline medium, high salt concentration, high pressures and so forth. Most extremophiles are micro-organisms that belong to the Archaea and Bacteria domains, and are widely spread across the world, which include the polar regions, volcanoes, deserts, deep oceanic sediments, hydrothermal vents, hypersaline lakes, acid and alkaline water bodies, and other extreme environments considered hostile to human life. Despite the tropical climate, Brazil has a wide range of ecosystems which include some permanent or seasonally extreme environments. For example, the Cerrado is a biome with very low soil pH with high Al+3 concentration, the mangroves in the Brazilian coast are anaerobic and saline, Pantanal has thousands of alkaline-saline lakes, the Caatinga arid and hot soils and the deep sea sediments in the Brazilian ocean shelf. These environments harbour extremophilic organisms that, coupled with the high natural biodiversity in Brazil, could be explored for different purposes. However, only a few projects in Brazil intended to study the extremophiles. In the frame of astrobiology, for example, these organisms could provide important models for defining the limits of life and hypothesize about life outside Earth. Brazilian microbiologists have, however, studied the extremophilic micro-organisms inhabiting non-Brazilian environments, such as the Antarctic continent. The experience and previous results obtained from the Brazilian Antarctic Program (PROANTAR) provide important results that are directly related to astrobiology. This article is a brief synopsis of the Brazilian experience in researching extremophiles, indicating the most important results related to astrobiology and some future perspectives in this area.

Influence of Forest Disturbance on Hydrologic Extremes in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.; McDowell, N. G.; Xu, C.; Wilson, C. J.

2015-12-01

The Colorado River is one of the most important freshwater rivers in the United States: it provides water supply to more than 30 million people, irrigation to 5.7 million acres of cropland, and produces over 8 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power each year. Our study focuses on changes to hydrological extremes and threshold responses across the Colorado River basin due to forest fires, infestations, and stress-induced tree mortality using a scenario-based approach to estimate forest cover disturbance. Scenarios include static vegetation reductions and dynamic reductions in forest compositions based on three CMIP5 global climate models and one emission scenario (1950-2099). For headwater systems, large intra-year variability exists, indicating the influence of climate on these snowmelt driven basins. Strong seasonality in flow responses are also noted; in the Piedra River higher runoff occurs during freshet under a no-forest condition, with the greatest changes observed for maximum streamflow. Conversely, during the recessional period, flows are lower in scenarios with reduced forest compositions. Low-flows appear to be affected in some basins but not others; for example small headwater systems demonstrate higher low-flows with increased disturbance. Global Climate Model scenarios indicate a range of responses in these basins, characterized by lower peak streamflow but with higher winter flows. This response is influenced by shifts in water, and energy balances associated with a combined response of changing climate and forest cover compositions. Results also clearly show how changes in extreme events are forced by shifts in major water balance parameters (runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture) from headwater basins spanning a range of hydrological regimes and ecological environments across the Colorado.

Clinical factors associated with extreme sleep apnoea [AHI>100 events per hour] in Peruvian patients: A case-control study–A preliminary report

PubMed Central

Rey de Castro, Jorge; Huamaní, Charles; Escobar-Córdoba, Franklin; Liendo, Cesar

2015-01-01

Purpose The severity of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) ranges from mild or moderate to severe sleep apnoea. However, there is no information available on the clinical characteristics associated with cases involving more than 100 events per hour. This is a preliminary report and our goal was to characterise the demographics and sleep characteristics of patients with Extreme OSA and compare with patients with sleep apnoea of lesser severity. We hypothesised that patients with Extreme OSA (AHI>100) is associated with an increased comorbidities and/or risk factors. Methods We carried out a case-control study on male patients with OSA who were seen in a private hospital in Lima, Peru between 2006 and 2012. Cases were identified if their apnoea/hypopnea index (AHI) was higher than 100 (Extreme OSA), and four controls were selected per case: two with 15–29 AHI and two with 30–50 AHI, matched according to case diagnosis dates. We evaluated demographic, past medical history, and oxygen saturation variables Results We identified 19 cases that were matched with 54 controls. In the multivariate model, only arterial hypertension, neck circumference, age, and over 10% in SatO2Hb≤90% in total sleep time (T90) were associated with Extreme OSA. Arterial hypertension had an OR=6.31 (CI95%: 1.71–23.23) of Extreme OSA. Each 5-cm increment in neck circumference was associated with an increase of OR=4.34 (CI95%: 1.32–14.33), while T90>10% had an OR=19.68 (CI95%: 4.33–89.49). Age had a marginal relevance (OR=0.95; CI95%: 0.92–0.99) Conclusion Our results suggest that arterial hypertension, neck circumference, and over 10% SatO2Hb≤90% in total sleep time were associated with a higher probability of Extreme OSA. We recommend investigators to study this population of Extreme OSA looking for an early diagnosis and the identification of prognostic factors in comparison with moderate to severe levels. PMID:26483940

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

Trends and variability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yinghui

2017-04-01

The variability of surface air temperature and precipitation extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Using daily minimum (TN), maximum temperature (TX) and precipitation　from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, which has rarely been applied in this region, were computed and analyzed during 1960-2012. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by -3.45, -1.03, -3.04, -0.42 and -1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of -0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. For precipitation, simple daily intensity index, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, extremely heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum consecutive dry days all increased significantly during 1960-2012. In contrast, ≥ 10 mm precipitation days and maximum consecutive wet days decreased significantly, implying that the precipitation processes in YRB were dominated by precipitation events with shorter durations. Geographically, a wetting tendency was observed in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the middle and lower YRB, while the other regions experienced precipitation deficits. The increasing precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation events and the decreasing precipitation may be attributed to the decrease of ≥ 10 mm precipitation days or moderate precipitation events. In addition, the regional trends were of greater magnitudes in the middle and lower YRB, indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events in these sub-regions.

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

PubMed

Mills, David M

2009-01-01

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

2015-12-01

It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etemadi, Halimeh; Samadi, S. Zahra; Sharifikia, Mohammad; Smoak, Joseph M.

2016-10-01

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and have remarkable ecological and socio-economic value. This study uses climate change downscaling to address the question of non-stationarity influences on mangrove variations (expansion and contraction) within an arid coastal region. Our two-step approach includes downscaling models and uncertainty assessment, followed by a non-stationary and trend procedure using the Extreme Value Analysis (extRemes code). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model along with two different general circulation model (GCMs) (MIRH and HadCM3) were used to downscale climatic variables during current (1968-2011) and future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) periods. Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping uncertainty tests demonstrated that the LARS-WGS model skillfully downscaled climatic variables at the 95 % significance level. Downscaling results using MIHR model show that minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) during winter and summer in a range of +4.21 and +4.7 °C, and +3.62 and +3.55 °C, respectively. HadCM3 analysis also revealed an increase in minimum (˜+3.03 °C) and maximum (˜+3.3 °C) temperatures during wet and dry seasons. In addition, we examined how much mangrove area has changed during the past decades and, thus, if climate change non-stationarity impacts mangrove ecosystems. Our results using remote sensing techniques and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney two-sample test indicated a sharp decline in mangrove area during 1972,1987, and 1997 periods ( p value = 0.002). Non-stationary assessment using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions by including mangrove area as a covariate further indicated that the null hypothesis of the stationary climate (no trend) should be rejected due to the very low p values for precipitation ( p value = 0.0027), minimum ( p value = 0.000000029) and maximum ( p value = 0.00016) temperatures. Based on non-stationary analysis and an upward trend in downscaled temperature extremes, climate change may control mangrove development in the future.

Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity Over China Through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-11-01

Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation data set in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6°C at the end of 21st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9°C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

Extreme enhancements and depletions of relativistic electrons in Earth's radiation belts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Morley, S.; Geoffrey, R.

2015-12-01

Earth's electron radiation belts consist of toroidal zones in near-Earth space characterized by intense levels of relativistic electrons with distinct energy-dependent boundaries. It has been known for decades that the outer electron radiation belt is highly variable, with electron intensities varying by orders of magnitude on timescales ranging from minutes to years. Now, we are gaining much insight into the nature of this extreme variability thanks to the unprecedented number of observatories capable of measuring radiation belt electrons, the most recent of which is NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. In this presentation, we analyze and review several of the most extreme events observed in Earth's outer radiation belt. We begin with very sudden and strong enhancements of the outer radiation belt that can result in several orders of magnitude enhancements of electron intensities up to several MeV that sometimes occur in less than one day. We compare and contrast two of the most extreme cases of sudden and strong enhancements from the Van Allen Probes era, 08-09 October 2012 and 17-18 March 2015, and review evidence of the dominant acceleration mechanism in each event. Sudden enhancements of the radiation belts can also occur from injections by interplanetary shocks impacting the magnetosphere, such as occurred on 24 March 1991. We compare shock characteristics from previous injection events to those from the Van Allen Probes era to investigate why none of the interplanetary shocks since September 2012 have caused MeV electron injections into the slot region and inner radiation belt, which has surprisingly been devoid of measurable quantities of >~1 MeV electrons throughout the Van Allen Probes era. Our last topic concerns loss processes. We discuss drastic loss events, known as "flux dropouts", and present evidence that these loss events can eliminate the vast majority of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt on time scales of only a few hours. We finish with cases of prolonged outer belt depletions, such as occurred throughout most of 2009 and in September 2014, and discuss how these can result from flux dropout events combined with a subsequent lack of any source of new relativistic electrons.

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models to examine the probability of coastal change (Stockdon et al., 2013) and thus, the vulnerability to storm-induced coastal hazards that Ocean Beach faces. Future climate variability is easily incorporated into this framework, allowing us to quantify how an evolving climate will alter future extreme TWLs and their related coastal impacts.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Determination of consistent patterns of range of motion in the ankle joint with a computed tomography stress-test.

PubMed

Tuijthof, Gabriëlle Josephine Maria; Zengerink, Maartje; Beimers, Lijkele; Jonges, Remmet; Maas, Mario; van Dijk, Cornelis Niek; Blankevoort, Leendert

2009-07-01

Measuring the range of motion of the ankle joint can assist in accurate diagnosis of ankle laxity. A computed tomography-based stress-test (3D CT stress-test) was used that determines the three-dimensional position and orientation of tibial, calcaneal and talar bones. The goal was to establish a quantitative database of the normal ranges of motion of the talocrural and subtalar joints. A clinical case on suspected subtalar instability demonstrated the relevance the proposed method. The range of motion was measured for the ankle joints in vivo for 20 subjects using the 3D CT stress-test. Motion of the tibia and calcaneus relative to the talus for eight extreme foot positions were described by helical parameters. High consistency for finite helical axis orientation (n) and rotation (theta) was shown for: talocrural extreme dorsiflexion to extreme plantarflexion (root mean square direction deviation (eta) 5.3 degrees and theta: SD 11.0 degrees), talorucral and subtalar extreme combined eversion-dorsiflexion to combined inversion-plantarflexion (eta: 6.7 degrees , theta: SD 9.0 degrees and eta:6.3 degrees , theta: SD 5.1 degrees), and subtalar extreme inversion to extreme eversion (eta: 6.4 degrees, theta: SD 5.9 degrees). Nearly all dorsi--and plantarflexion occurs in the talocrural joint (theta: mean 63.3 degrees (SD 11 degrees)). The inversion and internal rotation components for extreme eversion to inversion were approximately three times larger for the subtalar joint (theta: mean 22.9 degrees and 29.1 degrees) than for the talocrural joint (theta: mean 8.8 degrees and 10.7 degrees). Comparison of the ranges of motion of the pathologic ankle joint with the healthy subjects showed an increased inversion and axial rotation in the talocrural joint instead of in the suspected subtalar joint. The proposed diagnostic technique and the acquired database of helical parameters of ankle joint ranges of motion are suitable to apply in clinical cases.

Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events in Selected Ontario Cities =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Kinson He Yin

Ground-level ozone (O3) is perhaps one of the most familiar pollutants in Ontario, Canada because it is associated with most smog alerts in the province. O3 varies on a number of spatial and temporal scales, primarily due to meteorological variability and the impact of long-range transport of its precursors on the photochemical processes. The goal of this thesis is to project the change in the probability of occurrence of future Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events (EGLOEs) due to changes in atmospheric conditions as a result of climate change for cities located in the southern, eastern and northern parts of Ontario, Canada by using a combination of General Circulation / Global Climate Models (GCMs) and statistical downscaling. These Ontario cities are Toronto, Windsor, London, Kingston, Ottawa, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and North Bay. The successful downscaling method used in this research to generate city-specific climate change scenarios was the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2.2, which is a hybrid of regression-based and stochastic weather-generator downscaling methods. The results indicate that the mean values of the daily maximum ground-level ozone concentrations could increase by up to 12-17% in Southern Ontario, 8-16% in Eastern Ontario and 1.5-9% in Northern Ontario by the end of the century due largely to changes in long-range transport. Three important themes emerge from the results: 1) the research successfully model O3 concentration in a region where long-range transport plays a substantial role. 2) The clear confirmation regarding the role of long-range transport in determining O 3 concentration in most areas of Ontario. 3) The projected increase of ozone in Ontario, due largely to an increase of long-range transport, caused by shifting atmospheric dynamics rather than a direct temperature effect on ozone production. Moreover, the results indicate that the future Southern, Eastern and Northern Ontario's EGLOEs with the O3 concentration ≥ 80 ppb (the current Ontario 1-hour Ambient Air Quality criterion for extreme ozone concentration) will have an increase of over 60%, 50% and 62% respectively by the year of 2100 under the different future scenarios in the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) and the Hadley Centre's Climate Model (HadCM3).

Founder effects and the genetic structure of coulter pine

Treesearch

F. Thomas Ledig

2000-01-01

Mean expected heterozygosity at 33 isozyme loci decreased with latitude from 0.193 near the southern extreme of Coulter pine's range to 0.107 at its northern extreme. This decrease was paralleled by a loss of alleles north of the Peninsular Ranges of southern California. Fiftenn alleles dropped out along the roughly linear range, at points coincident with large...

Hip and upper extremity kinematics in youth baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Holt, Taylor; Oliver, Gretchen D

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between dynamic hip rotational range of motion and upper extremity kinematics during baseball pitching. Thirty-one youth baseball pitchers (10.87 ± 0.92 years; 150.03 ± 5.48 cm; 44.83 ± 8.04 kg) participated. A strong correlation was found between stance hip rotation and scapular upward rotation at maximum shoulder external rotation (r = 0.531, P = 0.002) and at ball release (r = 0.536, P = 0.002). No statistically significant correlations were found between dynamic hip rotational range of motion and passive hip range of motion. Hip range of motion deficits can constrain pelvis rotation and limit energy generation in the lower extremities. Shoulder pathomechanics can then develop as greater responsibility is placed on the shoulder to generate the energy lost from the proximal segments, increasing risk of upper extremity injury. Additionally, it appears that passive seated measurements of hip range of motion may not accurately reflect the dynamic range of motion of the hips through the progression of the pitch cycle.

The impact of soil moisture extremes and their spatiotemporal variability on Zambian maize yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Estes, L. D.; Vergopolan, N.

2017-12-01

Food security in sub-Saharan Africa is highly sensitive to climate variability. While it is well understood that extreme heat has substantial negative impacts on crop yield, the impacts of precipitation extremes, particularly over large spatial extents, are harder to quantify. There are three primary reasons for this difficulty, which are (1) lack of high quality, high resolution precipitation data, (2) rainfall data provide incomplete information on plant water availability, the variable that most directly affects crop performance, and (3) the type of rainfall extreme that most affects crop yields varies throughout the crop development stage. With respect to the first reason, the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation is much greater than that of temperature, yet the spatial resolution of rainfall data is typically even coarser than it is for temperature, particularly within Africa. Even if there were high-resolution rainfall data, the amount of water available to crops also depends on other physical factors that affect evapotranspiration, which are strongly influenced by heterogeneity in the land surface related to topography, soil properties, and land cover. In this context, soil moisture provides a better measure of crop water availability than rainfall. Furthermore, soil moisture has significantly different influences on crop yield depending on the crop's growth stage. The goal of this study is to understand how the spatiotemporal scales of soil moisture extremes interact with crops, more specifically, the timing and the spatial scales of extreme events like droughts and flooding. In this study, we simulate daily-1km soil moisture using HydroBlocks - a physically based land surface model - and compare it with precipitation and remote sensing derived maize yields between 2000 and 2016 in Zambia. We use a novel combination of the SCYM (scalable satellite-based yield mapper) method with DSSAT crop model, which is a mechanistic model responsive to water stress. Understanding the relationships between soil moisture spatiotemporal variability and yields can help to improve agricultural drought risk assessment and seasonal crop yield forecasting as well as early season warning of potential famines.

Long term hydrographic variability near Bermuda and relation to surface forcing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joyce, T.M.

1997-11-01

This paper provides an extremely brief description of long-term hydrographic observations at Bermuda. The time series of observations near the island goes back to 1922. A secular increase of temperature of approximately 0.5 C per century in the deep water pressure range has been observed; this depth layer is the only one observed at Bermuda to have such a long-term increase. Decadal time scale fluctuations have also been identified, and are correlated to decadal variations in the Labrador Sea. The recent period of decreasing temperature at Bermuda may be a reflection of the increased cooling in the Labrador Sea inmore » recent years. 2 figs.« less

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Optimization under uncertainty of parallel nonlinear energy sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boroson, Ethan; Missoum, Samy; Mattei, Pierre-Olivier; Vergez, Christophe

2017-04-01

Nonlinear Energy Sinks (NESs) are a promising technique for passively reducing the amplitude of vibrations. Through nonlinear stiffness properties, a NES is able to passively and irreversibly absorb energy. Unlike the traditional Tuned Mass Damper (TMD), NESs do not require a specific tuning and absorb energy over a wider range of frequencies. Nevertheless, they are still only efficient over a limited range of excitations. In order to mitigate this limitation and maximize the efficiency range, this work investigates the optimization of multiple NESs configured in parallel. It is well known that the efficiency of a NES is extremely sensitive to small perturbations in loading conditions or design parameters. In fact, the efficiency of a NES has been shown to be nearly discontinuous in the neighborhood of its activation threshold. For this reason, uncertainties must be taken into account in the design optimization of NESs. In addition, the discontinuities require a specific treatment during the optimization process. In this work, the objective of the optimization is to maximize the expected value of the efficiency of NESs in parallel. The optimization algorithm is able to tackle design variables with uncertainty (e.g., nonlinear stiffness coefficients) as well as aleatory variables such as the initial velocity of the main system. The optimal design of several parallel NES configurations for maximum mean efficiency is investigated. Specifically, NES nonlinear stiffness properties, considered random design variables, are optimized for cases with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 NESs in parallel. The distributions of efficiency for the optimal parallel configurations are compared to distributions of efficiencies of non-optimized NESs. It is observed that the optimization enables a sharp increase in the mean value of efficiency while reducing the corresponding variance, thus leading to more robust NES designs.

High Resolution Modeling in Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Management: AN Extreme Precipitation Event Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masarik, M. T.; Watson, K. A.; Flores, A. N.; Anderson, K.; Tangen, S.

2016-12-01

The water resources infrastructure of the Western US is designed to deliver reliable water supply to users and provide recreational opportunities for the public, as well as afford flood control for communities by buffering variability in precipitation and snow storage. Thus water resource management is a balancing act of meeting multiple objectives while trying to anticipate and mitigate natural variability of water supply. Currently, the forecast guidance available to personnel managing resources in mountainous terrain is lacking in two ways: the spatial resolution is too coarse, and there is a gap in the intermediate time range (10-30 days). To address this need we examine the effectiveness of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art, regional, numerical weather prediction model, as a means to generate high-resolution weather guidance in the intermediate time range. This presentation will focus on a reanalysis and hindcasting case study of the extreme precipitation and flooding event in the Payette River Basin of Idaho during the period of June 2nd-4th, 2010. For the reanalysis exercise we use NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data sets as input boundary conditions to WRF. The model configuration includes a horizontal spatial resolution of 3km in the outer nest, and 1 km in the inner nest, with output temporal resolution of 3 hrs and 1 hr, respectively. The hindcast simulations, which are currently underway, will make use of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSRR) data. The current state of these runs will be discussed. Preparations for the second of two components in this project, weekly WRF forecasts during the intense portion of the water year, will be briefly described. These forecasts will use the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast data as boundary conditions to provide forecast guidance geared towards water resource managers out to a lead time of 30 days. We are particularly interested in the degree to which there is forecast skill in basinwide precipitation occurrence, departure from climatology, timing, and amount in the intermediate time range.

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Multiscaling properties of tropical rainfall: Analysis of rain gauge datasets in Lesser Antilles island environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Didier C.; Pasquier, Raphaël; Cécé, Raphaël; Dorville, Jean-François

2014-05-01

Changes in rainfall seem to be the main impact of climate change in the Caribbean area. The last conclusions of IPCC (2013), indicate that the end of this century will be marked by a rise of extreme rainfalls in tropical areas, linked with increase of the mean surface temperature. Moreover, most of the Lesser Antilles islands are characterized by a complex topography which tends to enhance the rainfall from synoptic disturbances by orographic effects. In the past five years, out of hurricanes passage, several extreme rainy events (approx. 16 mm in 6 minutes), including fatal cases, occurred in the Lesser Antilles Arc: in Guadeloupe (January 2011, May 2012 and 2013), in Martinique (May 2009, April 2011 and 2013), in Saint-Lucia (December 2013). These phenomena inducing floods, loss of life and material damages (agriculture sector and public infrastructures), inhibit the development of the islands. At this time, numerical weather prediction models as WRF, which are based on the equations of the atmospheric physics, do not show great results in the focused area (Bernard et al., 2013). Statistical methods may be used to examine explicitly local rainy updrafts, thermally and orographically induced at micro-scale. The main goal of the present insular tropical study is to characterize the multifractal symmetries occurring in the 6-min rainfall time series, registered since 2006 by the French Met. Office network weather stations. The universal multifractal model (Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991) is used to define the statistical properties of measured rainfalls at meso-scale and micro-scale. This model is parametrized by a fundamental exponents set (H,a,C1,q) which are determined and compared with values found in the literature. The first three parameters characterize the mean pattern and the last parameter q, the extreme pattern. The occurrence ranges of multifractal regime are examined. The suggested links between the internal variability of the tropical rainy events and the multifractal properties found, are preliminary discussed. References Bernard, D., R. Cécé and J.-F. Dorville (2013). High resolution numerical simulation (WRF V3) of an extrem rainy event over the Guadeloupe archipelago: Case of 3-5 January 2011. EGU General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, EGU2013-9988, Vienna, April 2013. Schertzer, D., S. Lovejoy (1991). Nonlinear geodynamical variability: Multiple singularities, universality and observables. Scaling, fractals and non-linear variability in geophysics, D. Schertzer, S. Lovejoy eds.,41-82, Kluwer.

Cool-Season Moisture Delivery and Multi-Basin Streamflow Anomalies in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, Steven B.

Widespread droughts can have a significant impact on western United States streamflow, but the causes of these events are not fully understood. This dissertation examines streamflow from multiple western US basins and establishes the robust, leading modes of variability in interannual streamflow throughout the past century. I show that approximately 50% of this variability is associated with spatially widespread streamflow anomalies that are statistically independent from streamflow's response to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO-teleconnection accounts for approximately 25% of the interannual variability in streamflow, across this network. These atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the most spatially widespread variability are associated with the Aleutian low and the persistent coastal atmospheric ridge in the Pacific Northwest. I use a watershed segmentation algorithm to explicitly track the position and intensity of these features and compare their variability to the multi-basin streamflow variability. Results show that latitudinal shifts in the coastal atmospheric ridge are more strongly associated with streamflow's north-south dipole response to ENSO variability while more spatially widespread anomalies in streamflow most strongly relate to seasonal changes in the coastal ridge intensity. This likely reflects persistent coastal ridge blocking of cool-season precipitation into western US river basins. I utilize the 35 model runs of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESMLE) to determine whether the model ensemble simulates the anomalously strong coastal ridges and extreme widespread wintertime precipitation anomalies found in the observation record. Though there is considerable bias in the CESMLE, the CESMLE runs simulate extremely widespread dry precipitation anomalies with a frequency of approximately one extreme event per century during the historical simulations (1920 - 2005). These extremely widespread dry events correspond significantly with anomalously intense coastal atmospheric ridges. The results from these three papers connect widespread interannual streamflow anomalies in the western US--and especially extremely widespread streamflow droughts--with semi-permanent atmospheric ridge anomalies near the coastal Pacific Northwest. This is important to western US water managers because these widespread events appear to have been a robust feature of the past century. The semi-permanent atmospheric features associated with these widespread dry streamflow anomalies are projected to change position significantly in the next century as a response to global climate change. This may change widespread streamflow anomaly characteristic in the western US, though my results do not show evidence of these changes within the instrument record of last century.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Do Atmospheric Rivers explain the extreme precipitation events over East Asia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Nayak, S.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are now of serious concern due to their damaging societal impacts over last few decades. Thus, climate indices are widely used to identify and quantify variability and changes in particular aspects of the climate system, especially when considering extremes. In our study, we focus on few climate indices of annual precipitation extremes for the period 1979-2013 over East Asia to discuss some straightforward information and interpretation of certain aspects of extreme precipitation events that occur over the region. To do so, we first discuss different percentiles of precipitation and maximum length of wet spell with different thresholds from a regional climate model (NRAMS) simulation at 20km. Results indicate that the 99 percentile of precipitation events correspond to about 80mm/d over few regions of East Asia during 1979-2013 and maximum length of wet spell with minimum 20mm precipitation corresponds to about 10days (Figure 1). We then linked the extreme precipitation events with the intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The ARs are identified by computing the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) between 1000hpa and 300hpa with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s and 2000 km minimum long. With this threshold and condition (set by previous research), our results indicate that some extreme propitiation events are associated with some ARs over East Asia, while some events are not associated with any ARs. Similarly, some ARs are associated with some extreme precipitation events, while some ARs are not associated with any events. Since the ARs are sensitive to the threshold and condition depending on region, so we will analyze the characteristics of ARs (frequency, duration, and annual variability) with different thresholds and discuss their relationship with extreme precipitation events over East Asia.

Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lute, A. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2015-02-01

Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow-dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias-corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid-21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low-snowfall years and less frequent high-snowfall years were projected for every station.

Introduction to the special issue on the changing Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Murphy, R.W.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Quillman, W.

2006-01-01

The Mojave Desert, which lies between the Great Basin Desert in the north and the Sonoran Desert in the south, covers an estimated 114 478–130 464 km2 of the south-western United States and includes parts of the states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and California, with the amount of land mass dependent on the definition (Fig. 1; Rowlands et al., 1982; McNab and Avers, 1994; Bailey, 1995; Groves et al., 2000). This desert is sufficiently diverse to be subdivided into five regions: northern, south-western, central, south-central, and eastern (Rowlands et al., 1982). It is a land of extremes both in topography and climate. Elevations range from below sea level at Death Valley National Park to 3633 m on Mt. Charleston in the Spring Range of Nevada. Temperatures exhibit similar extreme ranges with mean minimum January temperatures of −2.4 °C in Beatty, Nevada and mean maximum July temperatures of 47 °C in Death Valley. Mean annual precipitation varies throughout the regions (42–350 mm), is highest on mountain tops, but overall is low (Rowlands et al., 1982; Rowlands, 1995a). The distribution of precipitation varies from west to east and north to south, with >85% of rain falling in winter in the northern, south-western and south-central regions. In contrast, the central and eastern regions receive a substantial amount of precipitation in both winter and summer. The variability in topographic and climatic features contributes to regional differences in vegetation.

Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis for extreme events using Archimedean copula. Case study: Lower Tunjuelo River basin (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Wilmar

2017-04-01

By analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events we can prevent or reduce the threat and risk. Many water resources projects require joint probability distributions of random variables such as precipitation intensity and duration, which can not be independent with each other. The problem of defining a probability model for observations of several dependent variables is greatly simplified by the joint distribution in terms of their marginal by taking copulas. This document presents a general framework set frequency analysis bivariate and multivariate using Archimedean copulas for extreme events of hydroclimatological nature such as severe storms. This analysis was conducted in the lower Tunjuelo River basin in Colombia for precipitation events. The results obtained show that for a joint study of the intensity-duration-frequency, IDF curves can be obtained through copulas and thus establish more accurate and reliable information from design storms and associated risks. It shows how the use of copulas greatly simplifies the study of multivariate distributions that introduce the concept of joint return period used to represent the needs of hydrological designs properly in frequency analysis.

Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, Marlene; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, Dim

2017-08-01

Variability in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather. Early predictions of extreme SPV states are thus important to improve forecasts of winter weather including cold spells. However, dynamical models are usually restricted in lead time because they poorly capture low-frequency processes. Empirical models often suffer from overfitting problems as the relevant physical processes and time lags are often not well understood. Here we introduce a novel empirical prediction method by uniting a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm. This way, we objectively identify causal precursors of the SPV at subseasonal lead times and find them to be in good agreement with known physical drivers. A linear regression prediction model based on the causal precursors can explain most SPV variability (r2 = 0.58), and our scheme correctly predicts 58% (46%) of extremely weak SPV states for lead times of 1-15 (16-30) days with false-alarm rates of only approximately 5%. Our method can be applied to any variable relevant for (sub)seasonal weather forecasts and could thus help improving long-lead predictions.

Overview of Key Results from SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Tom; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew; Mason, James; Didkovsky, Leonid; Chamberlin, Phil

2016-10-01

The SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) includes several channels to observe the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiance from 1 to 106 nm. These channels include the Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS) A, B, and P channels from the University of Colorado (CU) and the EUV SpectroPhometer (ESP) channels from the University of Southern California (USC). The solar EUV spectrum is rich in many different emission lines from the corona, transition region, and chromosphere. The EVE full-disk irradiance spectra are important for studying the solar impacts in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere and are useful for space weather operations. In addition, the EVE observations, with its high spectral resolution of 0.1 nm and in collaboration with AIA solar EUV images, have proven valuable for studying active region evolution and explosive energy release during flares and coronal eruptions. These SDO measurements have revealed interesting results such as understanding the flare variability over all wavelengths, discovering and classifying different flare phases, using coronal dimming measurements to predict CME properties of mass and velocity, and exploring the role of nano-flares in continual heating of active regions.

Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2016-01-01

Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

1997-01-01

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed Central

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-01-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. PMID:11359686

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sébastien

2017-11-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: A perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sebastien

2017-04-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate and its predictability, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better initialize the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models, and thus improve decadal climate predictions. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Identification of young stellar variables with KELT for K2 - II. The Upper Scorpius association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansdell, Megan; Oelkers, Ryan J.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Gaidos, Eric; Somers, Garrett; Mamajek, Eric; Cargile, Phillip A.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pepper, Joshua; Stevens, Daniel J.; Beatty, Thomas G.; Siverd, Robert J.; Lund, Michael B.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; James, David; Gaudi, B. Scott

2018-01-01

High-precision photometry from space-based missions such as K2 and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite enables detailed studies of young star variability. However, because space-based observing campaigns are often short (e.g. 80 d for K2), complementary long-baseline photometric surveys are critical for obtaining a complete understanding of young star variability, which can change on time-scales of minutes to years. We therefore present and analyse light curves of members of the Upper Scorpius association made over 5.5 yr by the ground-based Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT), which complement the high-precision observations of this region taken by K2 during its Campaigns 2 and 15. We show that KELT data accurately identify the periodic signals found with high-precision K2 photometry, demonstrating the power of ground-based surveys in deriving stellar rotation periods of young stars. We also use KELT data to identify sources exhibiting variability that is likely related to circumstellar material and/or stellar activity cycles; these signatures are often unseen in the short-term K2 data, illustrating the importance of long-term monitoring surveys for studying the full range of young star variability. We provide the KELT light curves as electronic tables in an ongoing effort to establish legacy time series data sets for young stellar clusters.

CT measurement of range of motion of ankle and subtalar joints following two lateral column lengthening procedures.

PubMed

Beimers, Lijkele; Louwerens, Jan W K; Tuijthof, Gabrielle Josephine Maria; Jonges, Remmet; van Dijk, C N Niek; Blankevoort, Leendert

2012-05-01

Lateral column lengthening (LCL) has become an accepted procedure for the operative treatment of the flexible flatfoot deformity. Hindfoot arthrodesis via a calcaneocuboid distraction arthrodesis (CCDA) has been considered a less favourable surgical option than the anterior open wedge calcaneal distraction osteotomy (ACDO), as CCDA has been associated with reduced hindfoot joint motion postoperatively. The ankle and subtalar joint ranges of motion were measured in patients who underwent an ACDO or CCDA procedure for flatfoot deformity. CT scanning was performed with the foot in extreme positions in five ACDO and five CCDA patients. A bone segmentation and registration technique for the tibia, talus and calcaneus was applied to the CT images. Finite helical axis (FHA) rotations representing the range of motion of the joints were calculated for the motion between opposite extreme foot positions of the tibia and the calcaneus relative to the talus. The maximum mean FHA rotation of the ankle joint (for extreme dorsiflexion to extreme plantarflexion) after ACDO was 52.2 degrees ± 12.4 degrees and after CCDA 49.0 degrees ± 12.0 degrees. Subtalar joint maximum mean FHA rotation (for extreme eversion to extreme inversion) following ACDO was 22.8 degrees ± 8.6 degrees, and following CCDA 24.4 degrees ± 7.6 degrees. An accurate CT-based technique was used to assess the range of motion of the ankle and subtalar joints following two lateral column lengthening procedures for flatfoot deformity. Comparable results with a considerable amount of variance were found for the range of motion following the ACDO and CCDA procedures.

An XMM-Newton Observation of the Seyfert Galaxy 1H0419-577 in an Extreme Low State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pounds, K. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Page, K. L.; O'Brien, P. T.

2003-01-01

Previous observations of the luminous Seyfert galaxy 1H 0419-577 have found its X-ray spectrum to range from that of a typical Seyfert 1 with 2-10 keV power law index Gamma approx. 1.9 to a much flatter power law of Gamma approx. 1.5 or less. We report here a new XMM-Newton observation which allows the low state spectrum to be studied in much greater detail than hitherto. We find a very hard spectrum (Gamma approx. 1.0) which exhibits broad features that can be modelled with the addition of an extreme relativistic Fe K emission line or with partial covering of the underlying continuum by a substantial column density of near-neutral gas. Both the EPIC and RGS data show evidence for strong line emission of OVII and OVIII requiring an extended region of low density photoionised gas in 1H 0419- 577. Comparison with an earlier XMM-Newton observation when 1H 0419-577 was X-ray bright indicates the dominant spectral variability occurs via a steep power law component.

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelfang, S. I.; Court, A.

1972-01-01

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.