Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model.

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making.

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

The star-forming complex LMC-N79 as a future rival to 30 Doradus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochsendorf, Bram B.; Zinnecker, Hans; Nayak, Omnarayani; Bally, John; Meixner, Margaret; Jones, Olivia C.; Indebetouw, Remy; Rahman, Mubdi

2017-11-01

Within the early Universe, `extreme' star formation may have been the norm rather than the exception1,2. Super star clusters (with masses greater than 105 solar masses) are thought to be the modern-day analogues of globular clusters, relics of a cosmic time (redshift z ≳ 2) when the Universe was filled with vigorously star-forming systems3. The giant H ii region 30 Doradus in the Large Magellanic Cloud is often regarded as a benchmark for studies of extreme star formation4. Here, we report the discovery of a massive embedded star-forming complex spanning about 500 pc in the unexplored southwest region of the Large Magellanic Cloud, which manifests itself as a younger, embedded twin of 30 Doradus. Previously known as N79, this region has a star-formation efficiency greater than that of 30 Doradus, by a factor of about 2, as measured over the past 0.5 Myr. Moreover, at the heart of N79 lies the most luminous infrared compact source discovered with large-scale infrared surveys of the Large Magellanic Cloud and Milky Way, possibly a precursor to the central super star cluster of 30 Doradus, R136. The discovery of a nearby candidate super star cluster may provide invaluable information to understand how extreme star formation proceeds in the current and high-redshift Universe.

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

Management of complex regional pain syndrome type I in upper extremity-evaluation of continuous stellate ganglion block and continuous infraclavicular brachial plexus block: a pilot study.

PubMed

Toshniwal, Gokul; Sunder, Rani; Thomas, Ronald; Dureja, G P

2012-01-01

Interventional pain management techniques play an important role in the multidisciplinary approach to management of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). In this preliminary study we compared the efficacy of continuous stellate ganglion (CSG) block with that of continuous infraclavicular brachial plexus (CIBP) block in management of CRPS type I of upper extremity. Thirty-three patients with CRPS type I of upper extremity were randomly assigned to either CSG or CIBP group. Patients were treated for 1 week with continuous infusion of 0.125% bupivacaine at 2and 5mL/h, respectively. Catheter was removed at 1 week and patients were followed up for 4 weeks. The outcome was evaluated in terms of neuropathic pain scale score (NPSS), edema scores (Grades 0-2), and range of motion (ROM) of all upper extremity joints (Grades 0-2). CIBP group showed statistically significant improvement in NPSS compared with CSG group during the first 12 hours after the procedures (P value <0.05). After 12 hours, the NPSS was comparable between the groups. At 4 weeks, both groups showed clinically significant improvement in edema score and ROM of all upper extremity joints when compared with the baseline. This preliminary study suggests that CIBP block and CSG block may be feasible and effective interventional techniques for the management of CRPS type I of upper extremities. Hence, we recommend a larger well-randomized, well-controlled, clinical trial to confirm our findings and determine if any significant difference exists between the groups in terms of long-term pain relief and functional restoration. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ship Detection from Ocean SAR Image Based on Local Contrast Variance Weighted Information Entropy

PubMed Central

Huang, Yulin; Pei, Jifang; Zhang, Qian; Gu, Qin; Yang, Jianyu

2018-01-01

Ship detection from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is one of the crucial issues in maritime surveillance. However, due to the varying ocean waves and the strong echo of the sea surface, it is very difficult to detect ships from heterogeneous and strong clutter backgrounds. In this paper, an innovative ship detection method is proposed to effectively distinguish the vessels from complex backgrounds from a SAR image. First, the input SAR image is pre-screened by the maximally-stable extremal region (MSER) method, which can obtain the ship candidate regions with low computational complexity. Then, the proposed local contrast variance weighted information entropy (LCVWIE) is adopted to evaluate the complexity of those candidate regions and the dissimilarity between the candidate regions with their neighborhoods. Finally, the LCVWIE values of the candidate regions are compared with an adaptive threshold to obtain the final detection result. Experimental results based on measured ocean SAR images have shown that the proposed method can obtain stable detection performance both in strong clutter and heterogeneous backgrounds. Meanwhile, it has a low computational complexity compared with some existing detection methods. PMID:29652863

On the variability of cold region flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-03-01

Cold region hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with both climate and the cryosphere. Improving knowledge on that complexity is essential to determine drivers of extreme events and to predict changes under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for cold region flooding where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on high flows. This study explores changes in the magnitude and the timing of streamflow in 18 Swedish Sub-Arctic catchments over their full record periods available and a common period (1990-2013). The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in several hydrological signatures (e.g. annual maximum daily flow, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset). Further, trends in the flood frequency were determined by fitting an extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution to test selected flood percentiles for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Results highlight shifts from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated flow regimes with all significant trends (at the 5% significance level) pointing toward (1) lower magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest widespread permafrost thawing and are supported by increasing trends in annual minimum daily flows. Trends in selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the full periods of record (significant for only four catchments), while trends were variable over the common period of data among the catchments. An uncertainty analysis emphasizes that the observed trends are highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional hydrological response pattern could be determined suggesting that catchment response to regionally consistent changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

A possible case of complex regional pain syndrome of the nose?

PubMed

Faraj-Hakim, S; Bleys, R L A W; Buwalda, J; de Ru, J A

2012-01-01

We present a case report of a patient with a putative diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome of the nose. We would like to bring this disorder to the attention of rhinologists. A 53-year-old man presented with a history of extreme, constant, debilitating pain in his nose that started after he underwent several extensive nasal surgeries. Examination revealed atrophic nasal mucous membranes at the nasal septum. No other abnormalities were found. The pain did not diminish despite administration of analgesics and neuropathic pain medications. We propose a diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome of the nose. The large number of nasal surgeries performed worldwide and the far reaching consequences of this debilitating syndrome indicate that it merits further investigation to determine whether it is a distinct disorder that should be recognized as such.

Combining local search with co-evolution in a remarkably simple way

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boettcher, S.; Percus, A.

2000-05-01

The authors explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard optimization problem. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. In contrast to genetic algorithms, which operate on an entire gene-pool of possible solutions, extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a single sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations, or avalanches, ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. Drawing upon models used to simulate far-from-equilibrium dynamics, extremal optimization complements heuristics inspired by equilibrium statistical physics, such as simulated annealing. With only onemore » adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions. Phase transitions are found in many combinatorial optimization problems, and have been conjectured to occur in the region of parameter space containing the hardest instances. We demonstrate how extremal optimization can be implemented for a variety of hard optimization problems. We believe that this will be a useful tool in the investigation of phase transitions in combinatorial optimization, thereby helping to elucidate the origin of computational complexity.« less

Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

Opportunities and constraints for improved water resources management under increasing hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events on global and regional water resources is therefore crucial for quantifying increasing risks from climate change. The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments severely impact half of the planet's population. The scale and complexity of the water challenges faced by society, particularly but not only in the world's poorest regions, are now recognized, as is the imperative of overcoming these challenges for a stable and equitable world. IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFAS) is an unprecedented inter-disciplinary scientific initiative to identify robust and adaptive portfolios of optional solutions across different economic sectors, including agriculture, energy and industry, and to test these solution-portfolios with multi-model ensembles of hydrologic and sector models to obtain a clearer picture of the trade-offs, risks, and opportunities. The results of WFaS scenarios and models provide a basis for long-term strategic planning of water resource development under changing environments and increasing climate extremes. And given the complexity of the water system, WFaS uniquely provides policy makers with optional sets of solutions that work together and that can be easily adapted as circumstances change in the future. As WFaS progresses, it will establish a network involving information exchange, mutual learning and horizontal cooperation across teams of researchers, public and private decision makers and practitioners exploring solutions at regional, national and local scales. The initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science and to test and refine policy and business outcome.

Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.

2015-12-01

Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements. This is of particular importance for extreme event attribution which is often understood as science producing complex and abstract information attached to large uncertainties. They can serve as an interface for creating the necessary mutual understanding by being in a continuous dialogue with both science and stakeholders.

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a less skewed distribution. In a second step, an analysis of the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall synchronicity by means of complex networks reveals patterns of the propagation of extreme rainfall events. These patterns differ substantially from those obtained from the mean annual rainfall distribution. In addition, we have developed a scheme to predict rainfall extreme events in the eastern Central Andes based on event synchronization and spatial patterns of complex networks. The presented methods and result will allow to critically evaluate data and models in space and time.

Orofacial complex regional pain syndrome: pathophysiologic mechanisms and functional MRI.

PubMed

Lee, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Kyung Mi; Kim, Hyug-Gi; Kang, Soo-Kyung; Auh, Q-Schick; Hong, Jyung-Pyo; Chun, Yang-Hyun

2017-08-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is one of the most challenging chronic pain conditions and is characterized by burning pain, allodynia, hyperalgesia, autonomic changes, trophic changes, edema, and functional loss involving mainly the extremities. Until recently, very few reports have been published concerning CRPS involving the orofacial area. We report on a 50-year-old female patient who presented with unbearable pain in all of her teeth and hypersensitivity of the facial skin. She also reported intractable pain in both extremities accompanied by temperature changes and orofacial pain that increased when the other pains were aggravated. In the case of CRPS with trigeminal neuropathic pain, protocols for proper diagnosis and prompt treatment have yet to be established in academia or in the clinical field. We performed functional magnetic resonance imaging for a thorough analysis of the cortical representation of the affected orofacial area immediately before and immediately after isolated light stimulus of the affected hand and foot and concluded that CRPS can be correlated with trigeminal neuropathy in the orofacial area. Furthermore, the patient was treated with carbamazepine administration and stellate ganglion block, which can result in a rapid improvement of pain in the trigeminal region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping the Forest Type and Land Cover of Puerto Rico, a Component of the Caribbean Biodiversity Hotspot

Treesearch

Eileen Helmer; Olga Ramos; T. DEL M. LÓPEZ; Maya Quinones; W. DIAZ

2002-01-01

The Caribbean is one of the world’s centers of biodiversity and endemism. As in similar regions, many of its islands have complex topography, climate and soils, and ecological zones change over small areas. A segmented, supervised classification approach using Landsat TM imagery enabled us to develop the most detailed island-wide map of Puerto Rico’s extremely complex...

Projected changes of extreme precipitation over Contiguous United States with Nested regional climate model (NRCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.

2013-12-01

Extreme weather events have already significantly influenced North America. During 2005-2011, the extreme events have increased by 250 %, from four or fewer events occurring in 2005, while 14 events occurring in 2011 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). In addition, extreme rainfall amounts, frequency, and intensity were all expected to increase under greenhouse warming scenarios (Wehner 2005; Kharin et al. 2007; Tebaldi et al. 2006). Global models are powerful tools to investigate the climate and climate change on large scales. However, such models do not represent local terrain and mesoscale weather systems well owing to their coarse horizontal resolution (150-300 km). To capture the fine-scale features of extreme weather events, regional climate models (RCMs) with a more realistic representation of the complex terrain and heterogeneous land surfaces are needed (Mass et al. 2002). This study uses the Nested Regional Climate model (NRCM) to perform regional scale climate simulations on a 12-km × 12-km high resolution scale over North America (including Alaska; with 600 × 515 grid cells at longitude and latitude), known as CORDEX_North America, instead of small regions as studied previously (eg., Dominguez et al. 2012; Gao et al. 2012). The performance and the biases of the NRCM extreme precipitation calculations (2000-2010) have been evaluated with PRISM precipitation (Daly et al. 1997) by Wang and Kotamarthi (2013): the NRCM replicated very well the monthly amount of extreme precipitation with less than 3% overestimation over East CONUS, and the frequency of extremes over West CONUS and upper Mississippi River Basin. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 from the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0) are dynamically downscaled to predict the extreme rainfall events at the end-of-century (2085-2095) and to explore the uncertainties of future extreme precipitation induced by different scenarios over distinct regions. We have corrected the CO2 atmospheric concentration in the longwave/shortwave radiation schemes of the NRCM according to the recommended datasets by CMIP5 (Clarke et al. 2007; Riahi et al. 2007). We have also corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask of CLM 4.0 as mentioned by Gao et al. (2012). Acknowledgements: This work was supported under a military interdepartmental purchase request from the SERDP, RC-2242, through U.S. Department of Energy contract DE-AC02-06CH11357.

Molecular-dynamics simulation of Richtmyer-Meshkov instability on a Li-H2 interface at extreme compressing conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shenghong; Wang, Weirong; Luo, Xisheng

2018-06-01

The new characteristics of Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) under extreme shock conditions are numerically studied by using molecular dynamics simulation incorporated with the electron force field model. The emphasis is placed on the ionization effects caused by different impacting speeds (6-30 km/s) on the microscale RMI on a Li-H2 interface. The linear region of the amplitude growth rate of the shocked interface under extreme shock conditions is observed to be much longer than that at the ordinary impact, which is in good accord with experimental results obtained with a Nova laser. It is also found that the amplitude of the nonlinear region is larger than the ordinary counterpart or the prediction by theory without considering the ionization effect. The two new characteristics are attributed to the ambipolar acceleration induced by the extra electric field due to the electron/ion separation under extreme shock conditions. These new findings may shed new light on the very complex physical process of the inertial confinement fusion on nanoscales.

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Post-traumatic complex regional pain syndrome: clinical features and epidemiology

PubMed Central

Ratti, Chiara; Nordio, Andrea; Resmini, Giuseppina; Murena, Luigi

2015-01-01

Summary Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic pain condition that occurs after a tissue injury (fractures, sprain, surgery) of the upper or lower extremities. A clear pathophysiological mechanism has not been established yet and different patterns are considered to play a role in the genesis of the disease. The diagnosis is made by different diagnosis criteria and a gold standard has not been established yet. Incidence of CRPS is unclear and large prospective studies on the incidence and prevalence of CRPS are scarce. The aim of this review is to give an overview on the prevalent data regarding this chronic syndrome. PMID:27134626

Understanding neuromotor strategy during functional upper extremity tasks using symbolic dynamics.

PubMed

Nathan, Dominic E; Guastello, Stephen J; Prost, Robert W; Jeutter, Dean C

2012-01-01

The ability to model and quantify brain activation patterns that pertain to natural neuromotor strategy of the upper extremities during functional task performance is critical to the development of therapeutic interventions such as neuroprosthetic devices. The mechanisms of information flow, activation sequence and patterns, and the interaction between anatomical regions of the brain that are specific to movement planning, intention and execution of voluntary upper extremity motor tasks were investigated here. This paper presents a novel method using symbolic dynamics (orbital decomposition) and nonlinear dynamic tools of entropy, self-organization and chaos to describe the underlying structure of activation shifts in regions of the brain that are involved with the cognitive aspects of functional upper extremity task performance. Several questions were addressed: (a) How is it possible to distinguish deterministic or causal patterns of activity in brain fMRI from those that are really random or non-contributory to the neuromotor control process? (b) Can the complexity of activation patterns over time be quantified? (c) What are the optimal ways of organizing fMRI data to preserve patterns of activation, activation levels, and extract meaningful temporal patterns as they evolve over time? Analysis was performed using data from a custom developed time resolved fMRI paradigm involving human subjects (N=18) who performed functional upper extremity motor tasks with varying time delays between the onset of intention and onset of actual movements. The results indicate that there is structure in the data that can be quantified through entropy and dimensional complexity metrics and statistical inference, and furthermore, orbital decomposition is sensitive in capturing the transition of states that correlate with the cognitive aspects of functional task performance.

Optimizing Illumina next-generation sequencing library preparation for extremely AT-biased genomes.

PubMed

Oyola, Samuel O; Otto, Thomas D; Gu, Yong; Maslen, Gareth; Manske, Magnus; Campino, Susana; Turner, Daniel J; Macinnis, Bronwyn; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P; Swerdlow, Harold P; Quail, Michael A

2012-01-03

Massively parallel sequencing technology is revolutionizing approaches to genomic and genetic research. Since its advent, the scale and efficiency of Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) has rapidly improved. In spite of this success, sequencing genomes or genomic regions with extremely biased base composition is still a great challenge to the currently available NGS platforms. The genomes of some important pathogenic organisms like Plasmodium falciparum (high AT content) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (high GC content) display extremes of base composition. The standard library preparation procedures that employ PCR amplification have been shown to cause uneven read coverage particularly across AT and GC rich regions, leading to problems in genome assembly and variation analyses. Alternative library-preparation approaches that omit PCR amplification require large quantities of starting material and hence are not suitable for small amounts of DNA/RNA such as those from clinical isolates. We have developed and optimized library-preparation procedures suitable for low quantity starting material and tolerant to extremely high AT content sequences. We have used our optimized conditions in parallel with standard methods to prepare Illumina sequencing libraries from a non-clinical and a clinical isolate (containing ~53% host contamination). By analyzing and comparing the quality of sequence data generated, we show that our optimized conditions that involve a PCR additive (TMAC), produces amplified libraries with improved coverage of extremely AT-rich regions and reduced bias toward GC neutral templates. We have developed a robust and optimized Next-Generation Sequencing library amplification method suitable for extremely AT-rich genomes. The new amplification conditions significantly reduce bias and retain the complexity of either extremes of base composition. This development will greatly benefit sequencing clinical samples that often require amplification due to low mass of DNA starting material.

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) as a Learning System for Extreme Heat: Evolving Future Resilience from Present Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H.; Trtanj, J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.

2016-12-01

There is presently no consensus indicator for the effect of extreme heat on human health. At the early warning timescale, a variety of approaches to setting temperature thresholds (minimum, maximum, time-lagged) or more complex approaches (Heat Index, Thermal Comfort, etc...) for issuing alerts and warnings have been recommended by literature and implemented, leading to much heterogeneity. At longer timescales, efforts have been made to quantify potential future health outcomes using climate projections, but nonstationarity of the climate system, economy, and demography may invalidate many of the assumptions which were necessarily made in these studies. Furthermore, in our pursuit of developing the best models and indicators to represent the impacts of climate extremes, perhaps we have not paid enough attention to what makes them policy-relevant, responsive to changing assumptions, and targeted at elements that can actually be predicted. In response to this concern, a comprehensive approach to improving the impactfulness of these indicators is underway as part of the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), which was initiated by NOAA and CDC, but has grown to include many other federal agency and non-governmental partners. NIHHIS is a framework that integrates what we know about extreme heat and health outcomes within a learning system - simultaneously informing early warning and long-term risk reduction prior to, during, and while recovering from extreme heat events. NIHHIS develops impactful evolutionary responses to climate extremes. Through ongoing regional engagements, we are applying the lessons of impact modeling studies to create learning systems in the Southwest, Northeast, Midwest, and soon other regions of the U.S. This session will provide a view of this process as it has been carried out in the Southwest region - focused on the transboundary (US-Mexico) region around El Paso, Texas, and the NIHHIS approach to indicators overall.

Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

2014-12-01

Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in specifying how severe the climate effects may be or how those impacts compound existing hazards in the system, the Resiliency Study focused on identifying a variety of 'no regrets' policy options that can help the local communities anticipate, respond and recover faster and more efficiently to climate extremes.

L-edge sum rule analysis on 3d transition metal sites: from d10 to d0 and towards application to extremely dilute metallo-enzymes.

PubMed

Wang, Hongxin; Friedrich, Stephan; Li, Lei; Mao, Ziliang; Ge, Pinghua; Balasubramanian, Mahalingam; Patil, Daulat S

2018-03-28

According to L-edge sum rules, the number of 3d vacancies at a transition metal site is directly proportional to the integrated intensity of the L-edge X-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) for the corresponding metal complex. In this study, the numbers of 3d holes are characterized quantitatively or semi-quantitatively for a series of manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) complexes, including the electron configurations 3d 10 → 3d 0 . In addition, extremely dilute (<0.1% wt/wt) Ni enzymes were examined by two different approaches: (1) by using a high resolution superconducting tunnel junction X-ray detector to obtain XAS spectra with a very high signal-to-noise ratio, especially in the non-variant edge jump region; and (2) by adding an inert tracer to the sample that provides a prominent spectral feature to replace the weak edge jump for intensity normalization. In this publication, we present for the first time: (1) L-edge sum rule analysis for a series of Mn and Ni complexes that include electron configurations from an open shell 3d 0 to a closed shell 3d 10 ; (2) a systematic analysis on the uncertainties, especially on that from the edge jump, which was missing in all previous reports; (3) a clearly-resolved edge jump between pre-L 3 and post-L 2 regions from an extremely dilute sample; (4) an evaluation of an alternative normalization standard for L-edge sum rule analysis. XAS from two copper (Cu) proteins measured using a conventional semiconductor X-ray detector are also repeated as bridges between Ni complexes and dilute Ni enzymes. The differences between measuring 1% Cu enzymes and measuring <0.1% Ni enzymes are compared and discussed. This study extends L-edge sum rule analysis to virtually any 3d metal complex and any dilute biological samples that contain 3d metals.

Ab initio atomic recombination reaction energetics on model heat shield surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Senese, Fredrick; Ake, Robert

1992-01-01

Ab initio quantum mechanical calculations on small hydration complexes involving the nitrate anion are reported. The self-consistent field method with accurate basis sets has been applied to compute completely optimized equilibrium geometries, vibrational frequencies, thermochemical parameters, and stable site labilities of complexes involving 1, 2, and 3 waters. The most stable geometries in the first hydration shell involve in-plane waters bridging pairs of nitrate oxygens with two equal and bent hydrogen bonds. A second extremely labile local minimum involves out-of-plane waters with a single hydrogen bond and lies about 2 kcal/mol higher. The potential in the region of the second minimum is extremely flat and qualitatively sensitive to changes in the basis set; it does not correspond to a true equilibrium structure.

Complex regional pain syndrome type I in the upper extremity - how efficient physical therapy and rehabilitation are.

PubMed

Zečević Luković, Tanja; Ristić, Branko; Jovanović, Zorica; Rančić, Nemanja; Ignjatović Ristić, Dragana; Cuković, Saša

2012-08-01

To evaluate the effects of early started combined therapy in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome-1 (CRPS-1) on the upper extremities. The study included 36 patients in the first stadium of CRPS-1 on the upper extremities The mean age of patients was 42.6±14.6, the majority of them (26 of 36) were females. The right side of the upper extremity was affected much more then the left side. They were treated by combined therapy including analgetics, electrotherapy, magneto therapy and kinesitherapy. The average length of observation was 172.1 days (from 90 to 250 days). The average length of treatment was 91.5±42.16 days. Intensity of pain, swelling of the extremity, the change in skin coloration and cutaneous manifestations were assessed three times, at the beginning of the treatment, after 6 weeks and at the end of the treatment. The pain was registered in all patients at visit 1 (average pain intensity was 5.70 ±1.44 on 100 mm visual analogue scale), and it was progressively decreased during the treatment from 3.60±1.22 at the second visit to 0.34±0.68 at the third visit. Vasodilatation was registered in 30 (83.33%) patients and skin temperature asymmetries was found in 21 (58.33%) patients. The difference of size was detected in 30 (83.33%) patients at the first visit compared to four (11.11%) patients at the end of the treatment. There were six (16.66%) patients without swelling at the beginning compared to 26 (72.22%) at the end of the treatment (p less than 0.000). Complete healing was achieved in 32 patients (88.88%). The carefully chosen physical agents in combination with analgesic and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may benefit in patients with CRPS-1 on the upper extremity if the treatment starts as soon as possible.

Unstructured Cartesian/prismatic grid generation for complex geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karman, Steve L., Jr.

1995-01-01

The generation of a hybrid grid system for discretizing complex three dimensional (3D) geometries is described. The primary grid system is an unstructured Cartesian grid automatically generated using recursive cell subdivision. This grid system is sufficient for computing Euler solutions about extremely complex 3D geometries. A secondary grid system, using triangular-prismatic elements, may be added for resolving the boundary layer region of viscous flows near surfaces of solid bodies. This paper describes the grid generation processes used to generate each grid type. Several example grids are shown, demonstrating the ability of the method to discretize complex geometries, with very little pre-processing required by the user.

Characterizing the Protostars in the Herschel Survey of Cygnus-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, James; Hora, J. L.; Smith, H. A.; Herschel Cygnus-X Group

2014-01-01

The Cygnus-X complex is an extremely active region of massive star formation at a distance of ~1.4 kpc which can be studied with higher sensitivity and less confusion than more distant regions. The study of this region is important in improving our understanding of the formation processes and protostellar phases of massive stars. A previous Spitzer Legacy survey of Cygnus-X mapped the distributions of Class I and Class II YSOs within the region and studied the interaction between massive young stars and clusters of YSOs. Using data from the recent Herschel survey of the region, taken with the PACS and SPIRE instrument (70-500 microns), we are expanding this study of star formation to the youngest and most deeply embedded objects. Using these data we will expand the sample of massive protostars and YSOs in Cygnus-X, analyze the population of infrared dark clouds and their embedded objects, construct Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) using pre-existing Spitzer and near-IR data sets (1-500 microns), and fit these sources with models of protostars to derive luminosities and envelope masses. The derived luminosities and masses will enable us to create evolutionary diagrams and test models of high-mass star formation. We will also investigate what role OB associations, such as Cyg OB2, play in causing subsequent star formation in neighboring clouds, providing us with a comprehensive picture of star formation within this extremely active complex.

North Atlantic Oscillation influence and weather types associated with winter total and extreme precipitation events in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queralt, S.; Hernández, E.; Barriopedro, D.; Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Casanova, C.

2009-12-01

An analysis of winter intensity and frequency of precipitation is presented, based on 102 daily precipitation stations over Spain and the Balearic Islands for the 1997-2006 decade. Precipitation stations have been merged in the eight different regions which compose the analyzed area by the use of an EOF analysis. NAO influence on the intensity and frequency of precipitation of each region is described in terms of mean precipitation, mean rain frequency, the number of extreme events, changes in the precipitation distribution and the prevalent synoptic configuration. Results indicate a non-stationary response; NAO signal being more evident in mid-late winter. Strong regional differences in the response to NAO are also found, which vary according to the specific character of the precipitation under analysis. Thus, NAO exerts a clear effect on the intensity of total and extreme precipitation rates in northern and westernmost Spanish regions, whereas the frequency of precipitation is clearly affected by NAO in central and southwestern areas. While the correlation between NAO and precipitation is negative for most of the analyzed area, two regions reveal positive responses to NAO in total precipitation occurrence and intensity for specific months. Further analyses reveal asymmetric responses to opposite phases of NAO in the precipitation distributions of some regions. The complex regional relationship between NAO and precipitation is also revealed through the modulation of the former in the preferred Circulation Weather Types associated to precipitation in each region. This spatially non-homogeneous NAO signal stresses the need of caution when employing Iberian precipitation as a proxy for NAO.

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale.

Improving high impact weather and climate prediction for societal resilience in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO-CACTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesbitt, S. W.; Salio, P. V.; Varble, A.; Trapp, R. J.; Roberts, R. R.; Dominguez, F.; Machado, L.; Saulo, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical South America is host to many types of weather and climate hazards. The convective systems that initiate near and apart from the complex terrain of the Andes and Sierras de Córdoba are by many measures the most intense in the world, producing hazards such as damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, extreme and unusual lightning behavior, and flash and riverine flooding. These systems are modulated by interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic drivers, however multi-scale models suffer from extreme biases in low level temperature and humidity due to their poor representation of organized convection and representation of convection near complex terrain, which hampers predictive skill of relevant processes across all timescales. To address these cross-cutting issues, we have proposed a large, multi-agency international field campaign called RELAMPAGO-CACTI, which will address key gaps in physical process understanding in the production of convective storms in this region. RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations), funded by NSF/NOAA/NASA/MinCyT/FAPESP, will be a 24-month hydrological-meteorological field campaign, with an intensive observing period 1 Nov - 15 Dec 2018 in the near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), the Andes foothills near Mendoza, and the region near São Borja, Brazil. A complementary funded 7-month DOE field campaign called Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI), which will focus on detailed observations of cloud and aerosol lifecycle near the SDC while an intensive observing period featuring aircraft observations will match RELAMPAGO's. While collecting the observations will enhance knowledge of the processes acting to modulate extremes in the region, a coordinated modeling effort will aim to evaluate coupled weather, climate, and hydrologic models using RELAMPAGO-CACTI observations. In addition, partnerships with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of Argentina and Brazil's Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), as well as related international and local societal impacts projects such as the World Meteorological Organization's High-Impact Weather project will enable improved end-to-end impacts predictions in this vulnerable region.

Complex regional pain syndrome of the upper extremity.

PubMed

Patterson, Ryan W; Li, Zhongyu; Smith, Beth P; Smith, Thomas L; Koman, L Andrew

2011-09-01

The diagnosis and management of complex regional pain syndrome is often challenging. Early diagnosis and intervention improve outcomes in most patients; however, some patients will progress regardless of intervention. Multidisciplinary management facilitates care in complex cases. The onset of signs and symptoms may be obvious or insidious; temporal delay is a frequent occurrence. Difficulty sleeping, pain unresponsive to narcotics, swelling, stiffness, and hypersensitivity are harbingers of onset. Multimodal treatment with hand therapy, sympatholytic drugs, and stress loading may be augmented with anesthesia blocks. If the dystrophic symptoms are controllable by medications and a nociceptive focus or nerve derangement is correctable, surgery is an appropriate alternative. Chronic sequelae of contracture may also be addressed surgically in patients with controllable sympathetically maintained pain. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Segmentation of Unstructured Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhat, Smitha

1996-01-01

Datasets generated by computer simulations and experiments in Computational Fluid Dynamics tend to be extremely large and complex. It is difficult to visualize these datasets using standard techniques like Volume Rendering and Ray Casting. Object Segmentation provides a technique to extract and quantify regions of interest within these massive datasets. This thesis explores basic algorithms to extract coherent amorphous regions from two-dimensional and three-dimensional scalar unstructured grids. The techniques are applied to datasets from Computational Fluid Dynamics and from Finite Element Analysis.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

2018-02-01

The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Polymorphism at the defensin gene in the Anopheles gambiae complex: testing different selection hypotheses

PubMed Central

Simard, Frédéric; Licht, Monica; Besansky, Nora J.; Lehmann, Tovi

2007-01-01

Genetic variation in defensin, a gene encoding a major effector molecule of insects immune response was analyzed within and between populations of three members of the Anopheles gambiae complex. The species selected included the two anthropophilic species, An. gambiae and An. arabiensis and the most zoophilic species of the complex, An. quadriannulatus. The first species was represented by four populations spanning its extreme genetic and geographical ranges, whereas each of the other two species was represented by a single population. We found (i) reduced overall polymorphism in the mature peptide region and in the total coding region, together with specific reductions in rare and moderately frequent mutations (sites) in the coding region compared with non coding regions, (ii) markedly reduced rate of nonsynonymous diversity compared with synonymous variation in the mature peptide and virtually identical mature peptide across the three species, and (iii) increased divergence between species in the mature peptide together with reduced differentiation between populations of An. gambiae in the same DNA region. These patterns suggest a strong purifying selection on the mature peptide and probably the whole coding region. Because An. quadriannulatus is not exposed to human pathogens, identical mature peptide and similar pattern of polymorphism across species implies that human pathogens played no role as selective agents on this peptide. PMID:17161659

Connectivity in the human brain dissociates entropy and complexity of auditory inputs☆

PubMed Central

Nastase, Samuel A.; Iacovella, Vittorio; Davis, Ben; Hasson, Uri

2015-01-01

Complex systems are described according to two central dimensions: (a) the randomness of their output, quantified via entropy; and (b) their complexity, which reflects the organization of a system's generators. Whereas some approaches hold that complexity can be reduced to uncertainty or entropy, an axiom of complexity science is that signals with very high or very low entropy are generated by relatively non-complex systems, while complex systems typically generate outputs with entropy peaking between these two extremes. In understanding their environment, individuals would benefit from coding for both input entropy and complexity; entropy indexes uncertainty and can inform probabilistic coding strategies, whereas complexity reflects a concise and abstract representation of the underlying environmental configuration, which can serve independent purposes, e.g., as a template for generalization and rapid comparisons between environments. Using functional neuroimaging, we demonstrate that, in response to passively processed auditory inputs, functional integration patterns in the human brain track both the entropy and complexity of the auditory signal. Connectivity between several brain regions scaled monotonically with input entropy, suggesting sensitivity to uncertainty, whereas connectivity between other regions tracked entropy in a convex manner consistent with sensitivity to input complexity. These findings suggest that the human brain simultaneously tracks the uncertainty of sensory data and effectively models their environmental generators. PMID:25536493

Mapping the Gulf of Maine with side-scan sonar: A new bottom-type classification for complex seafloors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhardt, W.A.; Kelley, J.T.; Dickson, S.M.; Belknap, D.F.

1998-01-01

The bedrock-framed seafloor in the northwestern Gulf of Maine is characterized by extreme changes in bathymetric relief and covered with a wide variety of surficial materials. Traditional methods of mapping cannot accurately represent the great heterogeneity of such a glaciated region. A new mapping scheme for complex seafloors, based primarily on the interpretation of side-scan sonar imagery, utilizes four easily recognized units: rock, gravel, sand and mud. In many places, however, the seafloor exhibits a complicated mixture or extremely 'patchy' distribution of the four basic units, which are too small to map individually. Twelve composite units, each a two-component mixture of the basic units, were established to represent this patchiness at a small scale (1:100,000). Using a geographic information system, these and all other available data (seismic profiles, grab samples, submersible dives and cores) were referenced to a common geographic base, superimposed on bathymetric contours and then integrated into surficial geologic maps of the regional inner continental shelf. This digital representation of the seafloor comprises a multidimensional, interactive model complete with explicit attributes (depth, bottom type) that allow for detailed analysis of marine environments.

L-edge sum rule analysis on 3d transition metal sites: from d 10 to d 0 and towards application to extremely dilute metallo-enzymes

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongxin; Friedrich, Stephan; Li, Lei; ...

2018-02-13

According to L-edge sum rules, the number of 3d vacancies at a transition metal site is directly proportional to the integrated intensity of the L-edge X-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) for the corresponding metal complex. In this study, the numbers of 3d holes are characterized quantitatively or semi-quantitatively for a series of manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) complexes, including the electron configurations 3d 10 → 3d 0. In addition, extremely dilute (<0.1% wt/wt) Ni enzymes were examined by two different approaches: (1) by using a high resolution superconducting tunnel junction X-ray detector to obtain XAS spectra with a very high signal-to-noisemore » ratio, especially in the non-variant edge jump region; and (2) by adding an inert tracer to the sample that provides a prominent spectral feature to replace the weak edge jump for intensity normalization. In this publication, we present for the first time: (1) L-edge sum rule analysis for a series of Mn and Ni complexes that include electron configurations from an open shell 3d0 to a closed shell 3d 10; (2) a systematic analysis on the uncertainties, especially on that from the edge jump, which was missing in all previous reports; (3) a clearly-resolved edge jump between pre-L 3 and post-L 2 regions from an extremely dilute sample; (4) an evaluation of an alternative normalization standard for L-edge sum rule analysis. XAS from two copper (Cu) proteins measured using a conventional semiconductor X-ray detector are also repeated as bridges between Ni complexes and dilute Ni enzymes. The differences between measuring 1% Cu enzymes and measuring <0.1% Ni enzymes are compared and discussed. As a result, this study extends L-edge sum rule analysis to virtually any 3d metal complex and any dilute biological samples that contain 3d metals.« less

L-edge sum rule analysis on 3d transition metal sites: from d 10 to d 0 and towards application to extremely dilute metallo-enzymes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hongxin; Friedrich, Stephan; Li, Lei

According to L-edge sum rules, the number of 3d vacancies at a transition metal site is directly proportional to the integrated intensity of the L-edge X-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) for the corresponding metal complex. In this study, the numbers of 3d holes are characterized quantitatively or semi-quantitatively for a series of manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) complexes, including the electron configurations 3d 10 → 3d 0. In addition, extremely dilute (<0.1% wt/wt) Ni enzymes were examined by two different approaches: (1) by using a high resolution superconducting tunnel junction X-ray detector to obtain XAS spectra with a very high signal-to-noisemore » ratio, especially in the non-variant edge jump region; and (2) by adding an inert tracer to the sample that provides a prominent spectral feature to replace the weak edge jump for intensity normalization. In this publication, we present for the first time: (1) L-edge sum rule analysis for a series of Mn and Ni complexes that include electron configurations from an open shell 3d0 to a closed shell 3d 10; (2) a systematic analysis on the uncertainties, especially on that from the edge jump, which was missing in all previous reports; (3) a clearly-resolved edge jump between pre-L 3 and post-L 2 regions from an extremely dilute sample; (4) an evaluation of an alternative normalization standard for L-edge sum rule analysis. XAS from two copper (Cu) proteins measured using a conventional semiconductor X-ray detector are also repeated as bridges between Ni complexes and dilute Ni enzymes. The differences between measuring 1% Cu enzymes and measuring <0.1% Ni enzymes are compared and discussed. As a result, this study extends L-edge sum rule analysis to virtually any 3d metal complex and any dilute biological samples that contain 3d metals.« less

Fluctuating residual limb volume accommodated with an adjustable, modular socket design: A novel case report.

PubMed

Mitton, Kay; Kulkarni, Jai; Dunn, Kenneth William; Ung, Anthony Hoang

2017-10-01

This novel case report describes the problems of prescribing a prosthetic socket in a left transfemoral amputee secondary to chronic patellofemoral instability compounded by complex regional pain syndrome. Case Description and Methods: Following the amputation, complex regional pain syndrome symptoms recurred in the residual limb, presenting mainly with oedema. Due to extreme daily volume fluctuations of the residual limb, a conventional, laminated thermoplastic socket fitting was not feasible. Findings and Outcomes: An adjustable, modular socket design was trialled. The residual limb volume fluctuations were accommodated within the socket. Amputee rehabilitation could be continued, and the rehabilitation goals were achieved. The patient was able to wear the prosthesis for 8 h daily and to walk unaided indoors and outdoors. An adjustable, modular socket design accommodated the daily residual limb volume fluctuations and provided a successful outcome in this case. It demonstrates the complexities of socket fitting and design with volume fluctuations. Clinical relevance Ongoing complex regional pain syndrome symptoms within the residual limb can lead to fitting difficulties in a conventional, laminated thermoplastic socket due to volume fluctuations. An adjustable, modular socket design can accommodate this and provide a successful outcome.

Regional extreme rainfalls observed globally with 17 years of the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward

2015-04-01

While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation of extremely heavy precipitation from extremely tall convection is found to be quite universal, irrespective of regions. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Thus it is demonstrated that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection. Third, the size effect of rainfall events on the precipitation intensity is investigated. Comparisons of normalized PDFs of foot-print size rainfall intensity for different sizes of rainfall events show that footprint-scale extreme rainfall becomes stronger as the rainfall events get larger. At the same time, stratiform ratio in area as well as in rainfall amount increases with the size, confirming larger sized features are more organized systems. After all, it is statistically shown that organization of precipitation not only brings about an increase in extreme volumetric rainfall but also an increase in probability of the satellite footprint scale extreme rainfall.

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allie Marquardt; Bosilovich, Mike; Ullrich, Paul; Hoeck, Ian

2017-01-01

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Asymmetric Facial Bone Fragmentation Mirrors Asymmetric Distribution of Cranial Neuromasts in Blind Mexican Cavefish.

PubMed

Gross, Joshua B; Gangidine, Andrew; Powers, Amanda K

2016-11-01

Craniofacial asymmetry is a convergent trait widely distributed across animals that colonize the extreme cave environment. Although craniofacial asymmetry can be discerned easily, other complex phenotypes (such as sensory organ position and numerical variation) are challenging to score and compare. Certain bones of the craniofacial complex demonstrate substantial asymmetry, and co-localize to regions harboring dramatically expanded numbers of mechanosensory neuromasts. To determine if a relationship exists between this expansion and bone fragmentation in cavefish, we developed a quantitative measure of positional symmetry across the left-right axis. We found that three different cave-dwelling populations were significantly more asymmetric compared to surface-dwelling fish. Moreover, cave populations did not differ in the degree of neuromast asymmetry. This work establishes a method for quantifying symmetry of a complex phenotype, and demonstrates that facial bone fragmentation mirrors the asymmetric distribution of neuromasts in different cavefish populations. Further developmental studies will provide a clearer picture of the developmental and cellular changes that accompany this extreme phenotype, and help illuminate the genetic basis for facial asymmetry in vertebrates.

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

Holistic view to integrated climate change assessment and extreme weather adaptation in the Lake Victoria Basin East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutua, F.; Koike, T.

2013-12-01

Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world.The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Also, recent climate projections showed a pattern consistent with increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the East African region.We propose a holistic integrated approach to climate change assessment and extreme event adaptation through coupling of analysis techniques, tools and data. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa supports over three million livelihoods and is a valuable resource to five East African countries as a source of water and means of transport. However, with a Mesoscale weather regime driven by land and lake dynamics,extreme Mesoscale events have been prevalent and the region has been on the receiving end during anomalously wet years in the region. This has resulted in loss of lives, displacements, and food insecurity. In the LVB, the effects of climate change are increasingly being recognized as a significant contributor to poverty, by its linkage to agriculture, food security and water resources. Of particular importance are the likely impacts of climate change in frequency and intensity of extreme events. To tackle this aspect, this study adopted an integrated regional, mesoscale and basin scale approach to climate change assessment. We investigated the projected changes in mean climate over East Africa, diagnosed the signals of climate change in the atmosphere, and transferred this understanding to mesoscale and basin scale. Changes in rainfall were analyzed and similar to the IPCC AR4 report; the selected three General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wetter East Africa with intermittent dry periods in June-August. Extreme events in the region are projected to increase; with the number of wet days exceeding the 90% percentile of 1981-2000 likely to increase by 20-40% in the whole region. We also focused on short-term weather forecasting as a step towards adapting to a changing climate. This involved dynamic downscaling of global weather forecasts to high resolution with a special focus on extreme events. By utilizing complex model dynamics, the system was able to reproduce the Mesoscale dynamics well, simulated the land/lake breeze and diurnal pattern but was inadequate in some aspects. The quantitative prediction of rainfall was inaccurate with overestimation and misplacement but with reasonable occurrence. To address these shortcomings we investigated the value added by assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) brightness temperature during the event. By assimilating 23GHz (sensitive to water) and 89GHz (sensitive to cloud) frequency brightness temperature; the predictability of an extreme rain weather event was investigated. The assimilation through a Cloud Microphysics Data Assimilation (CMDAS) into the weather prediction model considerably improved the spatial distribution of this event.

Experimental Investigation of a 2D Supercritical Circulation-Control Airfoil Using Particle Image Velocimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Gregory S.; Yao, Chung-Sheng; Allan, Brian G.

2006-01-01

Recent efforts in extreme short takeoff and landing aircraft configurations have renewed the interest in circulation control wing design and optimization. The key to accurately designing and optimizing these configurations rests in the modeling of the complex physics of these flows. This paper will highlight the physics of the stagnation and separation regions on two typical circulation control airfoil sections.

Mapping upland hardwood site quality and productivity with GIS and FIA in the Blue Ridge of North Carolina

Treesearch

Claudia A. Cotton; Stephen R. Prisley; Thomas R. Fox

2009-01-01

The forested ecosystems of the southern Appalachians are some of the most diverse in North America due to the variability in climate, soils, and geologic parent material coupled with the complex topography found throughout the region. These same characteristics cause stands of upland hardwoods to be extremely variable with regard to site quality and productivity. Site...

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

Connectivity in the human brain dissociates entropy and complexity of auditory inputs.

PubMed

Nastase, Samuel A; Iacovella, Vittorio; Davis, Ben; Hasson, Uri

2015-03-01

Complex systems are described according to two central dimensions: (a) the randomness of their output, quantified via entropy; and (b) their complexity, which reflects the organization of a system's generators. Whereas some approaches hold that complexity can be reduced to uncertainty or entropy, an axiom of complexity science is that signals with very high or very low entropy are generated by relatively non-complex systems, while complex systems typically generate outputs with entropy peaking between these two extremes. In understanding their environment, individuals would benefit from coding for both input entropy and complexity; entropy indexes uncertainty and can inform probabilistic coding strategies, whereas complexity reflects a concise and abstract representation of the underlying environmental configuration, which can serve independent purposes, e.g., as a template for generalization and rapid comparisons between environments. Using functional neuroimaging, we demonstrate that, in response to passively processed auditory inputs, functional integration patterns in the human brain track both the entropy and complexity of the auditory signal. Connectivity between several brain regions scaled monotonically with input entropy, suggesting sensitivity to uncertainty, whereas connectivity between other regions tracked entropy in a convex manner consistent with sensitivity to input complexity. These findings suggest that the human brain simultaneously tracks the uncertainty of sensory data and effectively models their environmental generators. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Resolving Planet Formation in the Era of ALMA and Extreme AO Report on the joint ESO/NRAO Conference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dent, W. R. F.; Hales, A.; Milli, J.

2016-12-01

ALMA in its long-baseline configuration, as well as new optical/near-infrared adaptive optics instruments such as SPHERE and GPI, are now able to achieve spatial resolutions considerably better than 0.1 arcseconds. These facilities are enabling us to observe for the first time the regions around young stars where planets form. Already, complex structures including holes, spiral waves and extreme asymmetries are being found in these protoplanetary discs. To discuss these newly-imaged phenomena, and to enable cross-fertilisation of ideas between the two wavelength ranges, a joint ESO/NRAO workshop was held in Santiago. We present here a summary and some highlights of the meeting.

Basal cell carcinoma of the nipple - an unusual location in a male patient.

PubMed

Avci, Oktay; Pabuççuoğlu, Uğur; Koçdor, M Ali; Unlü, Mehtat; Akin, Ciler; Soyal, Cüneyt; Canda, Tülay

2008-02-01

Although basal cell carcinoma is extremely common, it only rarely occurs on the nipple. Men are affected more often than women. Basal cell carcinoma of the nipple-areola complex may be more aggressive as metastases to regional lymph nodes have been reported. We report a basal cell carcinoma of the nipple with features of a fibroepithelioma of Pinkus in a man and review the literature.

A Review of Computational Intelligence Methods for Eukaryotic Promoter Prediction.

PubMed

Singh, Shailendra; Kaur, Sukhbir; Goel, Neelam

2015-01-01

In past decades, prediction of genes in DNA sequences has attracted the attention of many researchers but due to its complex structure it is extremely intricate to correctly locate its position. A large number of regulatory regions are present in DNA that helps in transcription of a gene. Promoter is one such region and to find its location is a challenging problem. Various computational methods for promoter prediction have been developed over the past few years. This paper reviews these promoter prediction methods. Several difficulties and pitfalls encountered by these methods are also detailed, along with future research directions.

Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

PubMed Central

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Willis, Theodore V.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future. PMID:28116356

Projected changes to precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies using multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

Information on projected changes to precipitation extremes is needed for future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and storm water management systems and to sustain socio-economic activities and ecosystems at local, regional and other scales of interest. This study explores the projected changes to seasonal (April-October) precipitation extremes at daily, hourly and sub-hourly scales over the Canadian Prairie Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble and regional frequency analysis. The performance of each RCM is evaluated regarding boundary and performance errors to study various sources of uncertainties and the impact of large-scale driving fields. In the absence of RCM-simulated short-duration extremes, a framework is developed to derive changes to extremes of these durations. Results from this research reveal that the relative changes in sub-hourly extremes are higher than those in the hourly and daily extremes. Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes are larger for southeastern parts of this region than southern and northern areas, and smaller for southwestern and western parts of the study area. Keywords: climate change, precipitation extremes, regional frequency analysis, NARCCAP, Canadian Prairie provinces

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

2017-01-01

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2010-05-01

Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude, latitude, distance from sea and distance to the highest orographic barrier) on the rainfall behaviours described by the studied variables. The techniques of spatial interpolation evaluated include univariate and multivariate methods: cokriging, kriging, IDW (inverse distance weighted) and multiple linear regression. Validation procedures were used, assessing the estimated errors in the analysis of descriptive statistics of the models. Multiple linear regression models produced satisfactory results in relation to 70% of the rainfall parameters, suggested by lower average percentage of error. However, the results also demonstrates that there is no an unique and ideal model, depending on the rainfall parameter in consideration. Probably, the unsatisfactory results obtained in relation to some rainfall parameters was motivated by constraints as the spatial complexity of the precipitation patterns, as well as to the deficient spatial coverage of the territory by the rain-gauges network. References Diodato, N. (2005). The influence of topographic co-variables on the spatial variability of precipitation over small regions of complex terrain. Internacional Journal of Climatology, 25(3), 351-363. Goovaerts, P. (2000). Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 228, 113 - 129.

Detecting text in natural scenes with multi-level MSER and SWT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Tongwei; Liu, Renjun

2018-04-01

The detection of the characters in the natural scene is susceptible to factors such as complex background, variable viewing angle and diverse forms of language, which leads to poor detection results. Aiming at these problems, a new text detection method was proposed, which consisted of two main stages, candidate region extraction and text region detection. At first stage, the method used multiple scale transformations of original image and multiple thresholds of maximally stable extremal regions (MSER) to detect the text regions which could detect character regions comprehensively. At second stage, obtained SWT maps by using the stroke width transform (SWT) algorithm to compute the candidate regions, then using cascaded classifiers to propose non-text regions. The proposed method was evaluated on the standard benchmark datasets of ICDAR2011 and the datasets that we made our own data sets. The experiment results showed that the proposed method have greatly improved that compared to other text detection methods.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Exome sequencing in schizophrenic patients with high levels of homozygosity identifies novel and extremely rare mutations in the GABA/glutamatergic pathways.

PubMed

Giacopuzzi, Edoardo; Gennarelli, Massimo; Minelli, Alessandra; Gardella, Rita; Valsecchi, Paolo; Traversa, Michele; Bonvicini, Cristian; Vita, Antonio; Sacchetti, Emilio; Magri, Chiara

2017-01-01

Inbreeding is a known risk factor for recessive Mendelian diseases and previous studies have suggested that it could also play a role in complex disorders, such as psychiatric diseases. Recent inbreeding results in the presence of long runs of homozygosity (ROHs) along the genome, which are also defined as autozygosity regions. Genetic variants in these regions have two alleles that are identical by descent, thus increasing the odds of bearing rare recessive deleterious mutations due to a homozygous state. A recent study showed a suggestive enrichment of long ROHs in schizophrenic patients, suggesting that recent inbreeding could play a role in the disease. To better understand the impact of autozygosity on schizophrenia risk, we selected, from a cohort of 180 Italian patients, seven subjects with extremely high numbers of large ROHs that were likely due to recent inbreeding and characterized the mutational landscape within their ROHs using Whole Exome Sequencing and, gene set enrichment analysis. We identified a significant overlap (17%; empirical p-value = 0.0171) between genes inside ROHs affected by low frequency functional homozygous variants (107 genes) and the group of most promising candidate genes mutated in schizophrenia. Moreover, in four patients, we identified novel and extremely rare damaging mutations in the genes involved in neurodevelopment (MEGF8) and in GABA/glutamatergic synaptic transmission (GAD1, FMN1, ANO2). These results provide insights into the contribution of rare recessive mutations and inbreeding as risk factors for schizophrenia. ROHs that are likely due to recent inbreeding harbor a combination of predisposing low-frequency variants and extremely rare variants that have a high impact on pivotal biological pathways implicated in the disease. In addition, this study confirms that focusing on patients with high levels of homozygosity could be a useful prioritization strategy for discovering new high-impact mutations in genetically complex disorders.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

2016-05-01

The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation extremes and a large region with low precipitation extremes. However, the regions with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions of the country, and floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage due to the high vulnerability. The study methods and procedure demonstrated in this paper will provide useful reference for frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in large regions, and the findings of the paper will be beneficial in flood control and management in the study area.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

Linking Local Scale Ecosystem Science to Regional Scale Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.; Peiffer, S.

2012-04-01

Ecosystem management with respect to sufficient water yield, a quality water supply, habitat and biodiversity conservation, and climate change effects requires substantial observational data at a range of scales. Complex interactions of local physical processes oftentimes vary over space and time, particularly in locations with extreme meteorological conditions. Modifications to local conditions (ie: agricultural land use changes, nutrient additions, landscape management, water usage) can further affect regional ecosystem services. The international, inter-disciplinary TERRECO research group is intensively investigating a variety of local processes, parameters, and conditions to link complex physical, economic, and social interactions at the regional scale. Field-based meteorology, hydrology, soil physics, plant production, solute and sediment transport, economic, and social behavior data were measured in a South Korean catchment. The data are used to parameterize suite of models describing local to landscape level water, sediment, nutrient, and monetary relationships. We focus on using the agricultural and hydrological SWAT model to synthesize the experimental field data and local-scale models throughout the catchment. The approach of our study was to describe local scientific processes, link potential interrelationships between different processes, and predict environmentally efficient management efforts. The Haean catchment case study shows how research can be structured to provide cross-disciplinary scientific linkages describing complex ecosystems and landscapes that can be used for regional management evaluations and predictions.

The discrete and localized nature of the variable emission from active regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arndt, Martina Belz; Habbal, Shadia Rifai; Karovska, Margarita

1994-01-01

Using data from the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Spectroheliometer on Skylab, we study the empirical characteristics of the variable emission in active regions. These simultaneous multi-wavelength observations clearly confirm that active regions consist of a complex of loops at different temperatures. The variable emission from this complex has very well-defined properties that can be quantitatively summarized as follows: (1) It is localized predominantly around the footpoints where it occurs at discrete locations. (2) The strongest variability does not necessarily coincide with the most intense emission. (3) The fraction of the area of the footpoints, (delta n)/N, that exhibits variable emission, varies by +/- 15% as a function of time, at any of the wavelengths measured. It also varies very little from footpoint to footpoint. (4) This fractional variation is temperature dependent with a maximum around 10(exp 5) K. (5) The ratio of the intensity of the variable to the average background emission, (delta I)/(bar-I), also changes with temperature. In addition, we find that these distinctive characteristics persist even when flares occur within the active region.

Glomus tumor presenting as complex regional pain syndrome of the left upper limb: a case report.

PubMed

Macharia, Chege; Nthumba, Peter M

2015-12-29

Glomus tumors of the hand are rare, benign but debilitating neoplasms arising from the neuromyoarterial glomus body. They may present a diagnostic dilemma, and take years with multiple consultations and investigations before an appropriate diagnosis is made, but once a diagnosis is made, surgical excision is curative. This is a case presentation of a 35-year-old African man who presented with complex regional pain syndrome of his left upper extremity, whose genesis was found to be a glomus tumor of the pulp of his left middle finger. Surgical excision resulted in resolution of the chronic regional pain syndrome and a return to a normal lifestyle. Chronic regional pain syndrome is a rare presentation of a glomus tumor, which has only been previously reported in patients with neurofibromatosis type 1, and one patient who did not have neurofibromatosis. Patients with glomus tumors may spend many years in pain and distress because of misdiagnosis. Sensitization and education of both the public and health care workers will help in early diagnosis and treatment of this otherwise potentially disabling pathology for which surgical excision is curative.

WRF Improves Downscaled Precipitation During El Niño Events over Complex Terrain in Northern South America: Implications for Deforestation Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rendón, A.; Posada, J. A.; Salazar, J. F.; Mejia, J.; Villegas, J.

2016-12-01

Precipitation in the complex terrain of the tropical Andes of South America can be strongly reduced during El Niño events, with impacts on numerous societally-relevant services, including hydropower generation, the main electricity source in Colombia. Simulating rainfall patterns and behavior in such areas of complex terrain has remained a challenge for regional climate models. Current data products such as ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and modelling products generally fail to correctly represent processes at scales that are relevant for these processes. Here we assess the added value to ERA-Interim by dynamical downscaling using the WRF regional climate model, including a comparison of different cumulus parameterization schemes. We found that WRF improves the representation of precipitation during the dry season of El Niño (DJF) events using a 1996-2014 observation period. Further, we use these improved capability to simulate an extreme deforestation scenario under El Niño conditions for an area in the central Andes of Colombia, where a big proportion of the country's hydropower is generated. Our results suggest that forests dampen the effects of El Niño on precipitation. In synthesis, our results illustrate the utility of regional modelling to improve data sources, as well as their potential for predicting the local-to-regional effects of global-change-type processes in regions with limited data availability.

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central-southern Europe and 45-66% in the north. Thus, the regionalisation carried out in this work has allowed establishing clear distinctions between the meteorological drivers of ozone in northern Europe and in the rest of the continent. These drivers are consistent across the different time scales examined (extremes, day-to-day and interannual), which gives confidence in the robustness of the results.

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Timothy H.

1998-01-01

The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; AghaKouchak, Amir; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

Extreme precipitation events have attracted a great deal of attention among the scientific community because of their devastating consequences on human livelihood and socio-economic development. To assess changes in precipitation extremes in a given region, it is essential to analyze decadal oscillations in precipitation extremes. This study examines temporal oscillations in precipitation data in several sub-regions of Iran using a novel quantile perturbation method during 1980-2010. Precipitation data from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-Land (MERRA-Land) are used in this study. The results indicate significant anomalies in precipitation extremes in the northwest and southeast regions of Iran. Analysis of extreme precipitation perturbations reveals that perturbations for the monthly aggregation level are generally lower than the annual perturbations. Furthermore, high-oscillation and low-oscillation periods are found in extreme precipitation quantiles across different seasons. In all selected regions, a significant anomaly (i.e., extreme wet/dry conditions) in precipitation extremes is observed during spring.

Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

2012-04-01

The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of adaptation capacity of the two viticultural systems to future climate change. The strategies of grape growers and wine producers focus on maintaining optimal yields and a constant wine style adapted to markets in a variable and uncertain climate. Their implementation and efficiency depend strongly on non-climatic factors. Thus, adaptation capacity to recent and future climate change depends strongly on adaptation to other non-climatic changes.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing resilience planning even as precise prediction of extremes remains difficult. Increased research is necessary to understand hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of populations to characterize the risk of shocks and mechanisms by which unexpected losses drive land-use transitions.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation by regional approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaal, L.; Kysely, J.

2009-09-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with large negative consequences for human society, mainly as they may trigger floods and landslides. The recent series of flash floods in central Europe (affecting several isolated areas) on June 24-28, 2009, the worst one over several decades in the Czech Republic as to the number of persons killed and the extent of damage to buildings and infrastructure, is an example. Estimates of growth curves and design values (corresponding e.g. to 50-yr and 100-yr return periods) of precipitation amounts, together with their uncertainty, are important in hydrological modelling and other applications. The interest in high quantiles of precipitation distributions is also related to possible climate change effects, as climate model simulations tend to project increased severity of precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. The present study compares - in terms of Monte Carlo simulation experiments - several methods to modelling probabilities of precipitation extremes that make use of ‘regional approaches’: the estimation of distributions of extremes takes into account data in a ‘region’ (‘pooling group’), in which one may assume that the distributions at individual sites are identical apart from a site-specific scaling factor (the condition is referred to as ‘regional homogeneity’). In other words, all data in a region - often weighted in some way - are taken into account when estimating the probability distribution of extremes at a given site. The advantage is that sampling variations in the estimates of model parameters and high quantiles are to a large extent reduced compared to the single-site analysis. We focus on the ‘region-of-influence’ (ROI) method which is based on the identification of unique pooling groups (forming the database for the estimation) for each site under study. The similarity of sites is evaluated in terms of a set of site attributes related to the distributions of extremes. The issue of the size of the region is linked with a built-in test on regional homogeneity of data. Once a pooling group is delineated, weights based on a dissimilarity measure are assigned to individual sites involved in a pooling group, and all (weighted) data are employed in the estimation of model parameters and high quantiles at a given location. The ROI method is compared with the Hosking-Wallis (HW) regional frequency analysis, which is based on delineating fixed regions (instead of flexible pooling groups) and assigning unit weights to all sites in a region. The comparison of the performance of the individual regional models makes use of data on annual maxima of 1-day precipitation amounts at 209 stations covering the Czech Republic, with altitudes ranging from 150 to 1490 m a.s.l. We conclude that the ROI methodology is superior to the HW analysis, particularly for very high quantiles (100-yr return values). Another advantage of the ROI approach is that subjective decisions - unavoidable when fixed regions in the HW analysis are formed - may efficiently be suppressed, and almost all settings of the ROI method may be justified by results of the simulation experiments. The differences between (any) regional method and single-site analysis are very pronounced and suggest that the at-site estimation is highly unreliable. The ROI method is then applied to estimate high quantiles of precipitation amounts at individual sites. The estimates and their uncertainty are compared with those from a single-site analysis. We focus on the eastern part of the Czech Republic, i.e. an area with complex orography and a particularly pronounced role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes. The design values are compared with precipitation amounts recorded during the recent heavy precipitation events, including the one associated with the flash flood on June 24, 2009. We also show that the ROI methodology may easily be transferred to the analysis of precipitation extremes in climate model outputs. It efficiently reduces (random) variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distributions in individual gridboxes that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation, and represents a straightforward tool for ‘weighting’ data from neighbouring gridboxes within the estimation procedure. The study is supported by the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420801.

Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2015-07-01

Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25-100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.

The ribosomal gene spacer region in archaebacteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achenbach-Richter, L.; Woese, C. R.

1988-01-01

Sequences for the spacer regions that separate the 16S and 23S ribosomal RNA genes have been determined for four more (strategically placed) archaebacteria. These confirm the general rule that methanogens and extreme halophiles have spacers that contain a single tRNAala gene, while tRNA genes are not found in the spacer region of the true extreme thermophiles. The present study also shows that the spacer regions from the sulfate reducing Archaeglobus and the extreme thermophile Thermococcus (both of which cluster phylogenetically with the methanogens and extreme halophiles) contain each a tRNAala gene. Thus, not only all methanogens and extreme halophiles show this characteristic, but all organisms on the "methanogen branch" of the archaebacterial tree appear to do so. The finding of a tRNA gene in the spacer region of the extreme thermophile Thermococcus celer is the first known phenotypic property that links this organism with its phylogenetic counterparts, the methanogens, rather than with its phenotypic counterparts, the sulfur-dependent extreme thermophiles.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

A curative treatment option for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) Type I: dorsal root entry zone operation (report of two cases).

PubMed

Kanpolat, Yucel; Al-Beyati, Eyyub; Ugur, Hasan Caglar; Akpinar, Gokhan; Kahilogullari, Gokmen; Bozkurt, Melih

2014-01-01

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I (CRPS-I) is a debated health problem concerning its pathophysiology and treatment strategies. A 12-year-old boy and a 35-year-old woman were diagnosed with CRPS-I at different times. They had previously undergone various types of interventions with no success. After one year of follow-up and observation, DREZ lesioning operation was performed. Afterwards, both cases had transient lower extremity ataxia. The first case was followed for 60 months with no recurrence and total cure. The second case was pain-free until the 6th month, when she required psychological support; she was followed for 33 months with partial satisfactory outcome. Although not a first-line option, DREZ lesioning procedure can be chosen and may be a curative option in selected cases of CRPS-I who are unresponsive to conventional therapies.

Cambrian nepheline syenite complex at Jabal Sawda, Midyan region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liddicoat, W.K.; Ramsay, C.R.; Hedge, C.E.

1986-01-01

The only nepheline syenite complex presently known in the Arabian Shield is at Jabal Sawda, about 30 km S of Haql in the extreme NW of Saudi Arabia. It is a post-tectonic, composite intrusion with a crudely concentric structure. A core of leuco-nepheline syenite, a partial ring of mela-nepheline syenite, and an almost complete outer ring of alkali-feldspar syenite are the main rock units. Several mega-inclusions of porphyritic nepheline syenite, nepheline monzosyenite, malignite and ijolite are present in the leuco-nepheline syenite. The chemical composition is notable for very high values of Al2O3, Na2O, Ba, La, Nb, Sr and Zr. U{single bond}Pb isotope dating indicates an emplacement age of 553 ?? 4 Ma, one of an increasing number of reliable Cambrian isotope dates in the northern Red Sea region. ?? 1986.

Cambrian nepheline syenite complex at Jabal Sawda, Midyan region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liddicoat, W. K.; Ramsay, C. R.; Hedge, C. E.

The only nepheline syenite complex presently known in the Arabian Shield is at Jabal Sawda, about 30 km S of Haql in the extreme NW of Saudi Arabia. It is a post-tectonic, composite intrusion with a crudely concentric structure. A core of leuco-nepheline syenite, a partial ring of mela-nepheline syenite, and an almost complete outer ring of alkali-feldspar syenite are the main rock units. Several mega-inclusions of porphyritic nepheline syenite, nepheline monzosyenite, malignite and ijolite are present in the leuco-nepheline syenite. The chemical composition is notable for very high values of Al 2O 3, Na 2O, Ba, La, Nb, Sr and Zr. U sbnd Pb isotope dating indicates an emplacement age of 553 ± 4 Ma, one of an increasing number of reliable Cambrian isotope dates in the northern Red Sea region.

Genomic binding profiles of functionally distinct RNA polymerase III transcription complexes in human cells.

PubMed

Moqtaderi, Zarmik; Wang, Jie; Raha, Debasish; White, Robert J; Snyder, Michael; Weng, Zhiping; Struhl, Kevin

2010-05-01

Genome-wide occupancy profiles of five components of the RNA polymerase III (Pol III) machinery in human cells identified the expected tRNA and noncoding RNA targets and revealed many additional Pol III-associated loci, mostly near short interspersed elements (SINEs). Several genes are targets of an alternative transcription factor IIIB (TFIIIB) containing Brf2 instead of Brf1 and have extremely low levels of TFIIIC. Strikingly, expressed Pol III genes, unlike nonexpressed Pol III genes, are situated in regions with a pattern of histone modifications associated with functional Pol II promoters. TFIIIC alone associates with numerous ETC loci, via the B box or a novel motif. ETCs are often near CTCF binding sites, suggesting a potential role in chromosome organization. Our results suggest that human Pol III complexes associate preferentially with regions near functional Pol II promoters and that TFIIIC-mediated recruitment of TFIIIB is regulated in a locus-specific manner.

Genomic Binding Profiles of Functionally Distinct RNA Polymerase III Transcription Complexes in Human Cells

PubMed Central

Moqtaderi, Zarmik; Wang, Jie; Raha, Debasish; White, Robert J.; Snyder, Michael; Weng, Zhiping; Struhl, Kevin

2012-01-01

Genome-wide occupancy profiles of five components of the RNA Polymerase III (Pol III) machinery in human cells identified the expected tRNA and non-coding RNA targets and revealed many additional Pol III-associated loci, mostly near SINEs. Several genes are targets of an alternative TFIIIB containing Brf2 instead of Brf1 and have extremely low levels of TFIIIC. Strikingly, expressed Pol III genes, unlike non-expressed Pol III genes, are situated in regions with a pattern of histone modifications associated with functional Pol II promoters. TFIIIC alone associates with numerous ETC loci, via the B box or a novel motif. ETCs are often near CTCF binding sites, suggesting a potential role in chromosome organization. Our results suggest that human Pol III complexes associate preferentially with regions near functional Pol II promoters and that TFIIIC-mediated recruitment of TFIIIB is regulated in a locus-specific manner. PMID:20418883

Elucidation of the mechanism of homozygous deletion of 3p12-13 in the U2020 cell line reveals the unexpected involvement of other chromosomes.

PubMed

Heppell-Parton, A C; Nacheva, E; Carter, N P; Bergh, J; Ogilvie, D; Rabbitts, P H

1999-06-01

Homozygous deletions in tumor cells have been useful in the localization and validation of tumor suppressor genes. We have described a homozygous deletion in a lung cancer cell line (U2020) which is located within the most proximal of the three regions on the short arm of chromosome 3 believed to be lost in lung cancer development. Construction of a YAC contig map indicates that the deletion spans around 8 Mb, but no large deletion was apparent on conventional cytogenetic analysis of the cell line. To investigate this paradox, whole chromosome, arm-specific, and regional paints have been used. This analysis has revealed that genetic loss has occurred by complex rearrangements of chromosomes 3, rather than simple interstitial deletion. These studies emphasize the power of molecular cytogenetics to disclose unsuspected tumor-specific translocations within the extremely complex karyotypes characteristic of solid tumors.

Scaling in geology: landforms and earthquakes.

PubMed Central

Turcotte, D L

1995-01-01

Landforms and earthquakes appear to be extremely complex; yet, there is order in the complexity. Both satisfy fractal statistics in a variety of ways. A basic question is whether the fractal behavior is due to scale invariance or is the signature of a broadly applicable class of physical processes. Both landscape evolution and regional seismicity appear to be examples of self-organized critical phenomena. A variety of statistical models have been proposed to model landforms, including diffusion-limited aggregation, self-avoiding percolation, and cellular automata. Many authors have studied the behavior of multiple slider-block models, both in terms of the rupture of a fault to generate an earthquake and in terms of the interactions between faults associated with regional seismicity. The slider-block models exhibit a remarkably rich spectrum of behavior; two slider blocks can exhibit low-order chaotic behavior. Large numbers of slider blocks clearly exhibit self-organized critical behavior. Images Fig. 6 PMID:11607562

Handling Emergency Management in [an] Object Oriented Modeling Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokgoz, Berna Eren; Cakir, Volkan; Gheorghe, Adrian V.

2010-01-01

It has been understood that protection of a nation from extreme disasters is a challenging task. Impacts of extreme disasters on a nation's critical infrastructures, economy and society could be devastating. A protection plan itself would not be sufficient when a disaster strikes. Hence, there is a need for a holistic approach to establish more resilient infrastructures to withstand extreme disasters. A resilient infrastructure can be defined as a system or facility that is able to withstand damage, but if affected, can be readily and cost-effectively restored. The key issue to establish resilient infrastructures is to incorporate existing protection plans with comprehensive preparedness actions to respond, recover and restore as quickly as possible, and to minimize extreme disaster impacts. Although national organizations will respond to a disaster, extreme disasters need to be handled mostly by local emergency management departments. Since emergency management departments have to deal with complex systems, they have to have a manageable plan and efficient organizational structures to coordinate all these systems. A strong organizational structure is the key in responding fast before and during disasters, and recovering quickly after disasters. In this study, the entire emergency management is viewed as an enterprise and modelled through enterprise management approach. Managing an enterprise or a large complex system is a very challenging task. It is critical for an enterprise to respond to challenges in a timely manner with quick decision making. This study addresses the problem of handling emergency management at regional level in an object oriented modelling environment developed by use of TopEase software. Emergency Operation Plan of the City of Hampton, Virginia, has been incorporated into TopEase for analysis. The methodology used in this study has been supported by a case study on critical infrastructure resiliency in Hampton Roads.

Magnetic Topology of Coronal Hole Linkages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Antiochos, S. K.

2010-01-01

In recent work, Antiochos and coworkers argued that the boundary between the open and closed field regions on the Sun can be extremely complex with narrow corridors of open ux connecting seemingly disconnected coronal holes from the main polar holes, and that these corridors may be the sources of the slow solar wind. We examine, in detail, the topology of such magnetic configurations using an analytical source surface model that allows for analysis of the eld with arbitrary resolution. Our analysis reveals three important new results: First, a coronal hole boundary can join stably to the separatrix boundary of a parasitic polarity region. Second, a single parasitic polarity region can produce multiple null points in the corona and, more important, separator lines connecting these points. Such topologies are extremely favorable for magnetic reconnection, because it can now occur over the entire length of the separators rather than being con ned to a small region around the nulls. Finally, the coronal holes are not connected by an open- eld corridor of finite width, but instead are linked by a singular line that coincides with the separatrix footprint of the parasitic polarity. We investigate how the topological features described above evolve in response to motion of the parasitic polarity region. The implications of our results for the sources of the slow solar wind and for coronal and heliospheric observations are discussed.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Future Indonesia-East Timor Relations: An Analysis of the Regional Security Practices in the Cold War and After

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-01

reiteration of the most dominant feature of the post-Cold War global order the emergence of ethnic and religious issues as major themes of state and...security. Considerations such as historical roots and legacy, ethnic identities, civilization linkages, colonial experiences, geographic location, and...extremely complex in nature. A common phenomenon during the Cold War was the tendency of the armed forces to intervene when ethnic differences arose. Thus

Novel Signs and Their Clinical Utility in Diagnosing Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

PubMed

Kuttikat, Anoop; Shaikh, Maliha; Oomatia, Amin; Parker, Richard; Shenker, Nicholas

2017-06-01

Delays in diagnosis occur with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). We define and prospectively demonstrate that novel bedside tests measuring body perception disruption can identify patients with CRPS postfracture. The objectives of our study were to define and validate 4 bedside tests, to identify the prevalence of positive tests in patients with CRPS and other chronic pain conditions, and to assess the clinical utility (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) for identifying CRPS within a Fracture cohort. This was a single UK teaching hospital prospective cohort study with 313 recruits from pain-free volunteers and patients with chronic pain conditions.Four novel tests were Finger Perception (FP), Hand Laterality identification (HL), Astereognosis (AS), and Body Scheme (BS) report. Five questionnaires (Brief Pain Inventory, Upper Extremity Functional Index, Lower Extremity Functional Index, Neglect-like Symptom Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score) assessed the multidimensional pain experience. FP and BS were the best performing tests. Prospective monitoring of fracture patients showed that out of 7 fracture patients (total n=47) who had both finger misperception and abnormal BS report at initial testing, 3 developed persistent pain with 1 having a formal diagnosis of CRPS. Novel signs are reliable, easy to perform, and present in chronic pain patients. FP and BS have significant clinical utility in predicting persistent pain in a fracture group thereby allowing targeted early intervention.

Fractal dimension assessment of brain white matter structural complexity post stroke in relation to upper-extremity motor function

PubMed Central

Zhang, Luduan; Butler, Andrew J.; Sun, Chang-Kai; Sahgal, Vinod; Wittenberg, George F.; Yue, Guang H.

2008-01-01

Little is known about the association between brain white matter (WM) structure and motor function in humans. This study investigated complexity of brain WM interior shape as determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and its relationship with upper-extremity (UE) motor function in patients post stroke. We hypothesized that (1) the WM complexity would decrease following stroke, and (2) higher WM complexity in non-affected cortical areas would be related to greater UE motor function. Thirty-eight stroke patients (16 with left-hemisphere lesions) underwent MRI anatomical brain scans. Fractal dimension (FD), a quantitative shape metric, was applied onto skeletonized brain WM images to evaluate WM internal structural complexity. Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT) and Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment (FM) scores were measured to assess motor function of the affected limb. The WM complexity was lower in the stroke-affected hemisphere. The FD was associated with better motor function in two subgroups: with left-subcortical lesions, FD values of the lesion-free areas of the left hemisphere were associated with better FM scores; with right-cortical lesions, FD values of lesion-free regions were robustly associated with better WMFT scores. These findings suggest that greater residual WM complexity is associated with less impaired UE motor function, which is more robust in patients with right-hemisphere lesions. No correlations were found between lesion volume and WMFT or FM scores. This study addressed WM complexity in stroke patients and its relationship with UE motor function. Measurement of brain WM reorganization may be a sensitive correlate of UE function in people recovering from stroke. PMID:18590710

Crack Damage Detection Method via Multiple Visual Features and Efficient Multi-Task Learning Model.

PubMed

Wang, Baoxian; Zhao, Weigang; Gao, Po; Zhang, Yufeng; Wang, Zhe

2018-06-02

This paper proposes an effective and efficient model for concrete crack detection. The presented work consists of two modules: multi-view image feature extraction and multi-task crack region detection. Specifically, multiple visual features (such as texture, edge, etc.) of image regions are calculated, which can suppress various background noises (such as illumination, pockmark, stripe, blurring, etc.). With the computed multiple visual features, a novel crack region detector is advocated using a multi-task learning framework, which involves restraining the variability for different crack region features and emphasizing the separability between crack region features and complex background ones. Furthermore, the extreme learning machine is utilized to construct this multi-task learning model, thereby leading to high computing efficiency and good generalization. Experimental results of the practical concrete images demonstrate that the developed algorithm can achieve favorable crack detection performance compared with traditional crack detectors.

TRMM rainfall estimative coupled with Bell (1969) methodology for extreme rainfall characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiavo Bernardi, E.; Allasia, D.; Basso, R.; Freitas Ferreira, P.; Tassi, R.

2015-06-01

The lack of rainfall data in Brazil, and, in particular, in Rio Grande do Sul State (RS), hinders the understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, especially in the case of the more complex extreme events. In this context, rainfall's estimation from remote sensors is seen as alternative to the scarcity of rainfall gauges. However, as they are indirect measures, such estimates needs validation. This paper aims to verify the applicability of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite information for extreme rainfall determination in RS. The analysis was accomplished at different temporal scales that ranged from 5 min to daily rainfall while spatial distribution of rainfall was investigated by means of regionalization. An initial test verified TRMM rainfall estimative against measured rainfall at gauges for 1998-2013 period considering different durations and return periods (RP). Results indicated that, for the RP of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years, TRMM overestimated on average 24.7% daily rainfall. As TRMM minimum time-steps is 3 h, in order to verify shorter duration rainfall, the TRMM data were adapted to fit Bell's (1969) generalized IDF formula (based on the existence of similarity between the mechanisms of extreme rainfall events as they are associated to convective cells). Bell`s equation error against measured precipitation was around 5-10%, which varied based on location, RP and duration while the coupled BELL+TRMM error was around 10-35%. However, errors were regionally distributed, allowing a correction to be implemented that reduced by half these values. These findings in turn permitted the use of TRMM+Bell estimates to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal distribution of extreme hydrological rainfall events.

Extreme fluctuations in stochastic network coordination with time delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, D.; Molnár, F.; Szymanski, B. K.; Korniss, G.

2015-12-01

We study the effects of uniform time delays on the extreme fluctuations in stochastic synchronization and coordination problems with linear couplings in complex networks. We obtain the average size of the fluctuations at the nodes from the behavior of the underlying modes of the network. We then obtain the scaling behavior of the extreme fluctuations with system size, as well as the distribution of the extremes on complex networks, and compare them to those on regular one-dimensional lattices. For large complex networks, when the delay is not too close to the critical one, fluctuations at the nodes effectively decouple, and the limit distributions converge to the Fisher-Tippett-Gumbel density. In contrast, fluctuations in low-dimensional spatial graphs are strongly correlated, and the limit distribution of the extremes is the Airy density. Finally, we also explore the effects of nonlinear couplings on the stability and on the extremes of the synchronization landscapes.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: Change of scaling precursory to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.

2010-09-01

Socioeconomic and natural complex systems persistently generate extreme events also known as disasters, crises, or critical transitions. Here we analyze patterns of background activity preceding extreme events in four complex systems: economic recessions, surges in homicides in a megacity, magnetic storms, and strong earthquakes. We use as a starting point the indicators describing the system's behavior and identify changes in an indicator's trend. Those changes constitute our background events (BEs). We demonstrate a premonitory pattern common to all four systems considered: relatively large magnitude BEs become more frequent before extreme event. A premonitory change of scaling has been found in various models and observations. Here we demonstrate this change in scaling of uniformly defined BEs in four real complex systems, their enormous differences notwithstanding.

Space-time characteristics and statistical predictability of extreme daily precipitation events in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

In this study we identify the atmospheric conditions that precede and accompany regional extreme precipitation events with the potential to cause flooding. We begin by identifying a coherent space-time structure in the record of extreme precipitation within the Ohio River Basin through both a Hidden Markov Model and a composite analysis. The transition probabilities associated with the Hidden Markov Model illustrate a tendency for west to east migration of extreme precipitation events (> 99th percentile) at individual stations within the Ohio River Basin. We compute a record of regional extreme precipitation days by requiring that > p% of the basin's stations simultaneously experience extreme precipitation days. A composite analysis of low-level geopotential heights and column integrated precipitable water content for all non-summer seasons confirms a west to east migration and intensification of 1) a low (high) pressure center to the west (east) of the basin, and 2) enhanced precipitable water vapor content that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast US region in the days leading up to regional extreme precipitation days. We define a daily dipole index to summarize the strength of the paired cylonic and aniticyclonic systems to the west and east of the basin and analyze its temporal characteristics and its relationship to the regional extreme precipitation events. Lastly, we investigate and discuss the subseasonal predictability of individual extreme precipitation events and the seasonal predictability of active and inactive seasons, where the activity level is defined by the expected frequency of regional extreme precipitation events.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Extreme events and natural hazards: The complexity perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-10-01

Advanced societies have become quite proficient at defending against moderate-size earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, or other natural assaults. What still pose a significant threat, however, are the unknowns, the extremes, the natural phenomena encompassed by the upper tail of the probability distribution. Alongside the large or powerful events, truly extreme natural disasters are those that tie different systems together: an earthquake that causes a tsunami, which leads to flooding, which takes down a nuclear reactor. In the geophysical monograph Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, editors A. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimro, and Daniel N. Baker present a lens through which such multidisciplinary phenomena can be understood. In this interview, Eos talks to Sharma about complexity science, predicting extreme events and natural hazards, and the push for "big data."

Extreme daily precipitation in the Northern Sierra Precipitation 8-Station index: The combined impact of landfalling atmospheric rivers and the Sierra barrier jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeira, J. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.

2014-12-01

The Upper Sacramento River area is vital to California's water supply, and is susceptible to major floods. Recent studies indicate that orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both inland penetrating atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The southerly SBJ induces orographic precipitation along south-facing slopes in the Shasta region, whereas landfalling ARs ascend up and over the statically stable SBJ and induce orographic precipitation along west-facing upper slopes in the Northern Sierra Nevada. This paper explores the hypothesis that extreme daily precipitation here is controlled by the presence of both a landfalling AR and a SBJ. Three 10-year-long (2000-2011) observational datasets are used. ARs are identified from the Neiman et al. (2008) AR catalog that uses an SSM/I satellite-based AR-detection method from Ralph et al. (2004), whereas SBJ conditions are determined from Chico, CA wind profiler data using the method from Neiman et al. (2010). Extreme daily precipitation is identified from the average of 8 rain gauges spanning the region known as the "Northern Sierra 8-Station Index." The "index" is used by water managers to assess water supply. Extreme events are defined as the 50 largest daily precipitation totals in the index for the 10-year period (the top ~1.37%). These dates in the 8-station index are compared with the catalogs of landfalling ARs and SBJs. In summary, 46 of 50 (92%) extreme daily precipitation events are associated with landfalling ARs on either the day before or the day of precipitation, whereas 45 of 50 (90%) extreme daily precipitation events are associated with SBJ conditions. 38 of 50 (76%) extreme daily precipitation events are associated with both a landfalling AR and an SBJ. The 10 days with the largest daily precipitation in the index were all associated with both a landfalling AR and an SBJ. Thus, extreme daily precipitation in Northern California is strongly controlled by the presence of both a landfalling AR and a SBJ.

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China.

PubMed

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-03-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China

PubMed Central

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-01-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction. PMID:28345056

A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.

2015-11-01

The state of California has experienced the worst drought in its historical record during 2012-2015. Adverse effects of this multiyear event have been far from uniformly distributed across the region, ranging from remarkably mild in most of California's densely populated coastal cities to very severe in more rural, agricultural, and wildfire-prone regions. This duality of impacts has created a tale of two very different California droughts—highlighting enhanced susceptibility to climate stresses at the environmental and socioeconomic margins of California. From a geophysical perspective, the persistence of related atmospheric anomalies has raised a number of questions regarding the drought's origins—including the role of anthropogenic climate change. Recent investigations underscore the importance of understanding the underlying physical causes of extremes in the climate system, and the present California drought represents an excellent case study for such endeavors. Meanwhile, a powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean offers the simultaneous prospect of partial drought relief but also an increased risk of flooding during the 2015-2016 winter—a situation illustrative of the complex hydroclimatic risks California and other regions are likely to face in a warming world.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Recent droughts and effect of climate change on climate extremes in the East African region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

2016-12-01

East Africa is a region that has been affected by droughts, floods, famine one too many times. 2015 was one of the worst droughts in the region in decades and created a food crisis in the region leading to 15 million people needing food and water assistance. In a region where the climate resilience of the society is low, understanding of the climate and how it's changing is very important. Unfortunately, only a few studies have been done in this area. In this study we looked at the recent droughts in the region and analyzed the trends in relation to historical data. A combination of remote sensing products like TRMM, GPM and MERRA were used in conjunction with gridded observed products like CPC as well as gauge observations to carry out the analysis. The second part of the analysis focused on how climate change will affect the climate extremes in the region focusing on precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration. 20 selected GCMs from CMIP5 were used at a daily timescale to look at climate extremes. Changes in daily intensity of precipitation, seasonal shifts and total rainfall were analyzed for mid-century and end of the century RCP 6.0 scenario and compared to the historical figures. In addition, daily extreme temperature and evapotranspiration as well seasonal shifts were focuses of this study. Spatial variations were also shown to be important in understanding the changes. Even though studies have shown the total rainfall in the region didn't show a significant change in that region under climate change, seasonal shifts, extreme precipitation, extreme temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increase in evapotranspiration were observed in East Africa. In a region where population is expected to double by mid-century this extreme can put the lives of millions in danger. This study will be followed with another focusing on how these changes in extremes and distribution will affect the water resources in the region specifically the Nile.

The Arctic Regional Communications Small SATellite (ARCSAT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casas, Joseph; Kress, Martin; Sims, William; Spehn, Stephen; Jaeger, Talbot; Sanders, Devon

2013-01-01

Traditional satellite missions are extremely complex and expensive to design, build, test, launch and operate. Consequently many complementary operational, exploration and research satellite missions are being formulated as a growing part of the future space community capabilities using formations of small, distributed, simple to launch and inexpensive highly capable small scale satellites. The Arctic Regional Communications small SATellite (ARCSAT) initiative would launch a Mini-Satellite "Mothership" into Polar or Sun Sync low-earth-orbit (LEO). Once on orbit, the Mothership would perform orbital insertion of four internally stored independently maneuverable nanosatellites, each containing electronically steerable antennas and reconfigurable software-defined radios. Unlike the traditional geostationary larger complex satellite communication systems, this LEO communications system will be comprised of initially a five small satellite formation that can be later incrementally increased in the total number of satellites for additional data coverage. ARCSAT will provide significant enabling capabilities in the Arctic for autonomous voice and data communications relay, Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), data-extraction from unattended sensors, and terrestrial Search & Rescue (SAR) beacon detection missions throughout the "data starved desert" of the Arctic Region.

Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

2016-04-01

Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and eliminated the outliers. Since the criteria of selecting the "best" models are somewhat loose, we constructed several regional ensembles consisting of different number of high-ranked models and compared results from these optimized ensembles with observations and with the ensemble of all models. We tested our approach in specific regional application of the terrestrial Russian Arctic, considering permafrost and Artic biomes as key regional climate-dependent systems, and temperature and precipitation characteristics governing their state as target meteorological parameters. Results of this case study are deposited on the web portal www.permafrost.su/gcms

Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

2014-05-01

The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the southwest part of Anhui Province) and a large region with low precipitation extremes in the north and middle parts of Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City and Jiangsu Province. However, the central areas with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions in the study area, thus floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage. These findings will contribute to formulating the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of frequently emerged floods.

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlinger, Patrik; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Sodemann, Harald

2017-12-01

Despite the vast literature on heavy-precipitation events in South Asia, synoptic conditions and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation in Nepal have not been addressed systematically. We investigate two types of synoptic conditions—low-pressure systems and midlevel troughs—and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation events. To account for the high spatial variability in rainfall, we cluster station-based daily precipitation measurements resulting in three well-separated geographic regions: west, central, and east Nepal. For each region, composite analysis of extreme events shows that atmospheric circulation is directed against the Himalayas during an extreme event. The direction of the flow is regulated by midtropospheric troughs and low-pressure systems traveling toward the respective region. Extreme precipitation events feature anomalous high abundance of total column moisture. Quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that the largest direct contribution stems from land (approximately 75%), where, in particular, over the Indo-Gangetic Plain moisture uptake was increased. Precipitation events occurring in this region before the extreme event likely provided additional moisture.

Novel immunoassay formats for integrated microfluidic circuits: diffusion immunoassays (DIA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigl, Bernhard H.; Hatch, Anson; Kamholz, Andrew E.; Yager, Paul

2000-03-01

Novel designs of integrated fluidic microchips allow separations, chemical reactions, and calibration-free analytical measurements to be performed directly in very small quantities of complex samples such as whole blood and contaminated environmental samples. This technology lends itself to applications such as clinical diagnostics, including tumor marker screening, and environmental sensing in remote locations. Lab-on-a-Chip based systems offer many *advantages over traditional analytical devices: They consume extremely low volumes of both samples and reagents. Each chip is inexpensive and small. The sampling-to-result time is extremely short. They perform all analytical functions, including sampling, sample pretreatment, separation, dilution, and mixing steps, chemical reactions, and detection in an integrated microfluidic circuit. Lab-on-a-Chip systems enable the design of small, portable, rugged, low-cost, easy to use, yet extremely versatile and capable diagnostic instruments. In addition, fluids flowing in microchannels exhibit unique characteristics ('microfluidics'), which allow the design of analytical devices and assay formats that would not function on a macroscale. Existing Lab-on-a-chip technologies work very well for highly predictable and homogeneous samples common in genetic testing and drug discovery processes. One of the biggest challenges for current Labs-on-a-chip, however, is to perform analysis in the presence of the complexity and heterogeneity of actual samples such as whole blood or contaminated environmental samples. Micronics has developed a variety of Lab-on-a-Chip assays that can overcome those shortcomings. We will now present various types of novel Lab- on-a-Chip-based immunoassays, including the so-called Diffusion Immunoassays (DIA) that are based on the competitive laminar diffusion of analyte molecules and tracer molecules into a region of the chip containing antibodies that target the analyte molecules. Advantages of this technique are a reduction in reagents, higher sensitivity, minimal preparation of complex samples such as blood, real-time calibration, and extremely rapid analysis.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Wildfires in California, August 17, 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Very hot, dry and unstable conditions in California and across the Pacific Northwest add to the challenges facing firefighters as they battle blazes around the region. Cal Fire is urging Californians to be extremely cautious, especially for the next few days, as the current conditions increase the dangers authorities face. This image was taken by NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite's VIIRS instrument around 2145 UTC (5:45 p.m. EDT) on August 17, 2015. Northern California is seeing smoke from the River Complex, Route Complex, South Complex, Fork Complex and Mad River Complex fires combine over a large area of the Shasta-Trinity National Forest west of Redding, California, while the Rough Fire in Fresno County is spreading toward the Black Rock Reservoir, causing evacuations and road closures. Fires across the Pacific Northwest aren't limited to California. Please see the Suomi NPP VIIRS composites in NOAA View to see the growth and extent of fires over the past weeks. Credit: NASA/NOAA via NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory

SIGN SINGULARITY AND FLARES IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 11158

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorriso-Valvo, L.; De Vita, G.; Kazachenko, M. D.

Solar Active Region NOAA 11158 has hosted a number of strong flares, including one X2.2 event. The complexity of current density and current helicity are studied through cancellation analysis of their sign-singular measure, which features power-law scaling. Spectral analysis is also performed, revealing the presence of two separate scaling ranges with different spectral index. The time evolution of parameters is discussed. Sudden changes of the cancellation exponents at the time of large flares and the presence of correlation with Extreme-Ultra-Violet and X-ray flux suggest that eruption of large flares can be linked to the small-scale properties of the current structures.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Using extreme phenotype sampling to identify the rare causal variants of quantitative traits in association studies.

PubMed

Li, Dalin; Lewinger, Juan Pablo; Gauderman, William J; Murcray, Cassandra Elizabeth; Conti, David

2011-12-01

Variants identified in recent genome-wide association studies based on the common-disease common-variant hypothesis are far from fully explaining the hereditability of complex traits. Rare variants may, in part, explain some of the missing hereditability. Here, we explored the advantage of the extreme phenotype sampling in rare-variant analysis and refined this design framework for future large-scale association studies on quantitative traits. We first proposed a power calculation approach for a likelihood-based analysis method. We then used this approach to demonstrate the potential advantages of extreme phenotype sampling for rare variants. Next, we discussed how this design can influence future sequencing-based association studies from a cost-efficiency (with the phenotyping cost included) perspective. Moreover, we discussed the potential of a two-stage design with the extreme sample as the first stage and the remaining nonextreme subjects as the second stage. We demonstrated that this two-stage design is a cost-efficient alternative to the one-stage cross-sectional design or traditional two-stage design. We then discussed the analysis strategies for this extreme two-stage design and proposed a corresponding design optimization procedure. To address many practical concerns, for example measurement error or phenotypic heterogeneity at the very extremes, we examined an approach in which individuals with very extreme phenotypes are discarded. We demonstrated that even with a substantial proportion of these extreme individuals discarded, an extreme-based sampling can still be more efficient. Finally, we expanded the current analysis and design framework to accommodate the CMC approach where multiple rare-variants in the same gene region are analyzed jointly. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using Extreme Phenotype Sampling to Identify the Rare Causal Variants of Quantitative Traits in Association Studies

PubMed Central

Li, Dalin; Lewinger, Juan Pablo; Gauderman, William J.; Murcray, Cassandra Elizabeth; Conti, David

2014-01-01

Variants identified in recent genome-wide association studies based on the common-disease common-variant hypothesis are far from fully explaining the hereditability of complex traits. Rare variants may, in part, explain some of the missing hereditability. Here, we explored the advantage of the extreme phenotype sampling in rare-variant analysis and refined this design framework for future large-scale association studies on quantitative traits. We first proposed a power calculation approach for a likelihood-based analysis method. We then used this approach to demonstrate the potential advantages of extreme phenotype sampling for rare variants. Next, we discussed how this design can influence future sequencing-based association studies from a cost-efficiency (with the phenotyping cost included) perspective. Moreover, we discussed the potential of a two-stage design with the extreme sample as the first stage and the remaining nonextreme subjects as the second stage. We demonstrated that this two-stage design is a cost-efficient alternative to the one-stage cross-sectional design or traditional two-stage design. We then discussed the analysis strategies for this extreme two-stage design and proposed a corresponding design optimization procedure. To address many practical concerns, for example measurement error or phenotypic heterogeneity at the very extremes, we examined an approach in which individuals with very extreme phenotypes are discarded. We demonstrated that even with a substantial proportion of these extreme individuals discarded, an extreme-based sampling can still be more efficient. Finally, we expanded the current analysis and design framework to accommodate the CMC approach where multiple rare-variants in the same gene region are analyzed jointly. PMID:21922541

Extreme infrared variables from UKIDSS - II. An end-of-survey catalogue of eruptive YSOs and unusual stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, P. W.; Smith, L. C.; Contreras Peña, C.; Froebrich, D.; Drew, J. E.; Kumar, M. S. N.; Borissova, J.; Minniti, D.; Kurtev, R.; Monguió, M.

2017-12-01

We present a catalogue of 618 high-amplitude infrared variable stars (1 < ΔK < 5 mag) detected by the two widely separated epochs of 2.2 μm data in the UKIDSS Galactic plane survey, from searches covering ∼1470 deg2. Most were discovered by a search of all fields at 30 < l < 230°. Sources include new dusty Mira variables, three new cataclysmic variable candidates, a blazar and a peculiar source that may be an interacting binary system. However, ∼60 per cent are young stellar obbjects (YSOs), based on spatial association with star-forming regions at distances ranging from 300 pc to over 10 kpc. This confirms our initial result in Contreras Peña et al. (Paper I) that YSOs dominate the high-amplitude infrared variable sky in the Galactic disc. It is also supported by recently published VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) results at 295 < l < 350°. The spectral energy distributions of the YSOs indicate class I or flat-spectrum systems in most cases, as in the VVV sample. A large number of variable YSOs are associated with the Cygnus X complex and other groups are associated with the North America/Pelican nebula, the Gemini OB1 molecular cloud, the Rosette complex, the Cone nebula, the W51 star-forming region and the S86 and S236 H II regions. Most of the YSO variability is likely due to variable/episodic accretion on time-scales of years, albeit usually less extreme than classical FUors and EXors. Luminosities at the 2010 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer epoch range from ∼0.1 to 103 L⊙ but only rarely exceed 102.5 L⊙.

Long-lasting injection of solar energetic electrons into the heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresing, N.; Gómez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Temmer, M.; Veronig, A.

2018-05-01

Context. The main sources of solar energetic particle (SEP) events are solar flares and shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). While it is generally accepted that energetic protons can be accelerated by shocks, whether or not these shocks can also efficiently accelerate solar energetic electrons is still debated. In this study we present observations of the extremely widespread SEP event of 26 Dec 2013 To the knowledge of the authors, this is the widest longitudinal SEP distribution ever observed together with unusually long-lasting energetic electron anisotropies at all observer positions. Further striking features of the event are long-lasting SEP intensity increases, two distinct SEP components with the second component mainly consisting of high-energy particles, a complex associated coronal activity including a pronounced signature of a shock in radio type-II observations, and the interaction of two CMEs early in the event. Aims: The observations require a prolonged injection scenario not only for protons but also for electrons. We therefore analyze the data comprehensively to characterize the possible role of the shock for the electron event. Methods: Remote-sensing observations of the complex solar activity are combined with in situ measurements of the particle event. We also apply a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model to the coronagraph observations of the two associated CMEs to analyze their interaction. Results: We find that the shock alone is likely not responsible for this extremely wide SEP event. Therefore we propose a scenario of trapped energetic particles inside the CME-CME interaction region which undergo further acceleration due to the shock propagating through this region, stochastic acceleration, or ongoing reconnection processes inside the interaction region. The origin of the second component of the SEP event is likely caused by a sudden opening of the particle trap.

Extreme precipitation depths for Texas, excluding the Trans-Pecos region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanning-Rush, Jennifer; Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1998-01-01

Storm durations of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 days were investigated for this report. The extreme precipitation depth for a particular area is estimated from an “extreme precipitation curve” (an upper limit or envelope curve developed from graphs of extreme precipitation depths for each climatic region). The extreme precipitation curves were determined using precipitation depth-duration information from a subset (24 “extreme” storms) of 213 “notable” storms documented throughout Texas. The extreme precipitation curves can be used to estimate extreme precipitation depth for a particular area. The extreme precipitation depth represents a limiting depth, which can provide useful comparative information for more quantitative analyses.

Understanding, representing and communicating earth system processes in weather and climate within CNRCWP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek; de Elia, Ramon; Déry, Stephen; Duguay, Claude; Gachon, Philippe; Gyakum, John; Laprise, René; Marshall, Shawn; Monahan, Adam; Scinocca, John; Thériault, Julie; Verseghy, Diana; Zwiers, Francis

2017-04-01

The Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) provides significant advances and innovative research towards the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in numerical weather prediction and climate projections for Canada's Northern and Arctic regions. This talk will provide an overview of the Network and selected results related to the assessment of the added value of high-resolution modelling that has helped fill critical knowledge gaps in understanding the dynamics of extreme temperature and precipitation events and the complex land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks in Canada's northern and Arctic regions. In addition, targeted developments in the Canadian regional climate model, that facilitate direct application of model outputs in impact and adaptation studies, particularly those related to the water, energy and infrastructure sectors will also be discussed. The close collaboration between the Network and its partners and end users contributed significantly to this effort.

Injuries from combat explosions in Iraq: injury type, location, and severity.

PubMed

Eskridge, Susan L; Macera, Caroline A; Galarneau, Michael R; Holbrook, Troy L; Woodruff, Susan I; MacGregor, Andrew J; Morton, Deborah J; Shaffer, Richard A

2012-10-01

Explosions have caused a greater percentage of injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan than in any other large-scale conflict. Improvements in body armour and field medical care have improved survival and changed the injury profile of service personnel. This study's objective was to determine the nature, body region, and severity of injuries caused by an explosion episode in male service personnel. A descriptive analysis was conducted of 4623 combat explosion episodes in Iraq between March 2004 and December 2007. The Barell matrix was used to describe the nature and body regions of injuries due to a combat explosion. A total of 17,637 International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes were assigned to the 4623 explosion episodes, with an average of 3.8 ICD-9 codes per episode. The most frequent single injury type was a mild traumatic brain injury (TBI; 10.8%). Other frequent injuries were open wounds in the lower extremity (8.8%) and open wounds of the face (8.2%), which includes tympanic membrane rupture. The extremities were the body regions most often injured (41.3%), followed by head and neck (37.4%) and torso (8.8%). The results of this study support previous observations of TBI as a pre-eminent injury of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with mild TBI as the most common single injury in this large cohort of explosion episodes. The extremities had the highest frequency of injuries for any one body region. The majority of the explosion episodes resulted in more than one injury, and the variety of injuries across nearly every body region and injury type suggests a complex nature of explosion injuries. Understanding the constellation of injuries commonly caused by explosions will assist in the mitigation, treatment, and rehabilitation of the effects of these injuries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of Genomic Regions Associated with Phenotypic Variation between Dog Breeds using Selection Mapping

PubMed Central

Derrien, Thomas; Axelsson, Erik; Rosengren Pielberg, Gerli; Sigurdsson, Snaevar; Fall, Tove; Seppälä, Eija H.; Hansen, Mark S. T.; Lawley, Cindy T.; Karlsson, Elinor K.; Bannasch, Danika; Vilà, Carles; Lohi, Hannes; Galibert, Francis; Fredholm, Merete; Häggström, Jens; Hedhammar, Åke; André, Catherine; Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin; Hitte, Christophe; Webster, Matthew T.

2011-01-01

The extraordinary phenotypic diversity of dog breeds has been sculpted by a unique population history accompanied by selection for novel and desirable traits. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis using multiple test statistics to identify regions under selection in 509 dogs from 46 diverse breeds using a newly developed high-density genotyping array consisting of >170,000 evenly spaced SNPs. We first identify 44 genomic regions exhibiting extreme differentiation across multiple breeds. Genetic variation in these regions correlates with variation in several phenotypic traits that vary between breeds, and we identify novel associations with both morphological and behavioral traits. We next scan the genome for signatures of selective sweeps in single breeds, characterized by long regions of reduced heterozygosity and fixation of extended haplotypes. These scans identify hundreds of regions, including 22 blocks of homozygosity longer than one megabase in certain breeds. Candidate selection loci are strongly enriched for developmental genes. We chose one highly differentiated region, associated with body size and ear morphology, and characterized it using high-throughput sequencing to provide a list of variants that may directly affect these traits. This study provides a catalogue of genomic regions showing extreme reduction in genetic variation or population differentiation in dogs, including many linked to phenotypic variation. The many blocks of reduced haplotype diversity observed across the genome in dog breeds are the result of both selection and genetic drift, but extended blocks of homozygosity on a megabase scale appear to be best explained by selection. Further elucidation of the variants under selection will help to uncover the genetic basis of complex traits and disease. PMID:22022279

Identification of genomic regions associated with phenotypic variation between dog breeds using selection mapping.

PubMed

Vaysse, Amaury; Ratnakumar, Abhirami; Derrien, Thomas; Axelsson, Erik; Rosengren Pielberg, Gerli; Sigurdsson, Snaevar; Fall, Tove; Seppälä, Eija H; Hansen, Mark S T; Lawley, Cindy T; Karlsson, Elinor K; Bannasch, Danika; Vilà, Carles; Lohi, Hannes; Galibert, Francis; Fredholm, Merete; Häggström, Jens; Hedhammar, Ake; André, Catherine; Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin; Hitte, Christophe; Webster, Matthew T

2011-10-01

The extraordinary phenotypic diversity of dog breeds has been sculpted by a unique population history accompanied by selection for novel and desirable traits. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis using multiple test statistics to identify regions under selection in 509 dogs from 46 diverse breeds using a newly developed high-density genotyping array consisting of >170,000 evenly spaced SNPs. We first identify 44 genomic regions exhibiting extreme differentiation across multiple breeds. Genetic variation in these regions correlates with variation in several phenotypic traits that vary between breeds, and we identify novel associations with both morphological and behavioral traits. We next scan the genome for signatures of selective sweeps in single breeds, characterized by long regions of reduced heterozygosity and fixation of extended haplotypes. These scans identify hundreds of regions, including 22 blocks of homozygosity longer than one megabase in certain breeds. Candidate selection loci are strongly enriched for developmental genes. We chose one highly differentiated region, associated with body size and ear morphology, and characterized it using high-throughput sequencing to provide a list of variants that may directly affect these traits. This study provides a catalogue of genomic regions showing extreme reduction in genetic variation or population differentiation in dogs, including many linked to phenotypic variation. The many blocks of reduced haplotype diversity observed across the genome in dog breeds are the result of both selection and genetic drift, but extended blocks of homozygosity on a megabase scale appear to be best explained by selection. Further elucidation of the variants under selection will help to uncover the genetic basis of complex traits and disease.

Some issues related to the novel spectral acceleration method for the fast computation of radiation/scattering from one-dimensional extremely large scale quasi-planar structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrungrueng, Danai; Johnson, Joel T.; Chou, Hsi-Tseng

2002-03-01

The novel spectral acceleration (NSA) algorithm has been shown to produce an $[\\mathcal{O}]$(Ntot) efficient iterative method of moments for the computation of radiation/scattering from both one-dimensional (1-D) and two-dimensional large-scale quasi-planar structures, where Ntot is the total number of unknowns to be solved. This method accelerates the matrix-vector multiplication in an iterative method of moments solution and divides contributions between points into ``strong'' (exact matrix elements) and ``weak'' (NSA algorithm) regions. The NSA method is based on a spectral representation of the electromagnetic Green's function and appropriate contour deformation, resulting in a fast multipole-like formulation in which contributions from large numbers of points to a single point are evaluated simultaneously. In the standard NSA algorithm the NSA parameters are derived on the basis of the assumption that the outermost possible saddle point, φs,max, along the real axis in the complex angular domain is small. For given height variations of quasi-planar structures, this assumption can be satisfied by adjusting the size of the strong region Ls. However, for quasi-planar structures with large height variations, the adjusted size of the strong region is typically large, resulting in significant increases in computational time for the computation of the strong-region contribution and degrading overall efficiency of the NSA algorithm. In addition, for the case of extremely large scale structures, studies based on the physical optics approximation and a flat surface assumption show that the given NSA parameters in the standard NSA algorithm may yield inaccurate results. In this paper, analytical formulas associated with the NSA parameters for an arbitrary value of φs,max are presented, resulting in more flexibility in selecting Ls to compromise between the computation of the contributions of the strong and weak regions. In addition, a ``multilevel'' algorithm, decomposing 1-D extremely large scale quasi-planar structures into more than one weak region and appropriately choosing the NSA parameters for each weak region, is incorporated into the original NSA method to improve its accuracy.

The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

2017-12-01

Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection is more important than zonal warm air advection. CAOs in the future feature stronger northerly flow but less extreme temperatures (even relative to the warmer climate), exemplifying the complex competition between thermodynamic and dynamic influences.

Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1998-01-01

Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ice core, and coral isotope reconstructions. Episodic dry and wet episodes have altered age structures and species composition of woodland and conifer forests. The scarcity of old, living conifers established before circa 1600 suggests that the extreme drought of 1575-95 had pervasive effects on tree populations. The most extreme drought of the past 400 years occurred in the mid-twentieth century (1942-57). This drought resulted in broadscale plant dieoffs in shrublands, woodlands, and forests and accelerated shrub invasion of grasslands. Drought conditions were broken by the post-1976 shift to the negative SO phase and wetter cool seasons in the Southwest. The post-1976 period shows up as an unprecedented surge in tree-ring growth within millennia-length chronologies. This unusual episode may have produced a pulse in tree recruitment and improved rangeland conditions (e.g., higher grass production), though additional study is needed to disentangle the interacting roles of land use and climate. The 1950s drought and the post-1976 wet period and their aftermaths offer natural experiments to study long-term ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability.Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from local (<102 km2) to mesoscale (104-106 km2). Climate-disturbance relations are more variable and complex than previously assumed. During the past three centuries, mesoscale outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) were associated with wet, not dry episodes, contrary to conventional wisdom. Regional fires occur during extreme droughts but, in some ecosystems, antecedent wet conditions play a secondary role by regulating accumulation of fuels. Interdecadal changes in fire-climate associations parallel other evidence for shifts in the frequency or amplitude of the Southern Oscillation (SO) during the past three centuries. High interannual, fire-climate correlations (r = 0.7 to 0.9) during specific decades (i.e., circa 1740-80 and 1830-60) reflect periods of high amplitude in the SO and rapid switching from extreme wet to dry years in the Southwest, thereby entraining fire occurrence across the region. Weak correlations from 1780 to 1830 correspond with a decrease in SO frequency or amplitude inferred from independent tree-ring width, ic

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Complex regional pain syndrome type I (RSD): pathology of skeletal muscle and peripheral nerve.

PubMed

van der Laan, L; ter Laak, H J; Gabreëls-Festen, A; Gabreëls, F; Goris, R J

1998-07-01

Reflex sympathetic dystrophy (RSD) (recently reclassified as complex regional pain syndrome type I) is a syndrome occurring in extremities and, when chronic, results in severe disability and untractable pain. RSD may be accompanied by neurologic symptoms even when there is no previous neurologic lesion. There is no consensus as to the pathogenic mechanism involved in RSD. To gain insight into the pathophysiology of RSD, we studied histopathology of skeletal muscle and peripheral nerve from patients with chronic RSD in a lower extremity. In eight patients with chronic RSD, an above-the-knee amputation was performed because of a nonfunctional limb. Specimens of sural nerves, tibial nerves, common peroneal nerves, gastrocnemius muscles, and soleus muscles were obtained from the amputated legs and analyzed by light and electron microscopy. In all patients, the affected leg showed similar neurologic symptoms such as spontaneous pain, hyperpathy, allodynia, paresis, and anesthesia dolorosa. The nerves showed no consistent abnormalities of myelinated fibers. In four patients, the C-fibers showed electron microscopic pathology. In all patients, the gastrocnemius and soleus muscle specimens showed a decrease of type I fibers, an increase of lipofuscin pigment, atrophic fibers, and severely thickened basal membrane layers of the capillaries. In chronic RSD, efferent nerve fibers were histologically unaffected; from afferent fibers, only C-fibers showed histopathologic abnormalities. Skeletal muscle showed a variety of histopathologic findings, which are similar to the histologic abnormalities found in muscles of patients with diabetes.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Numerical investigations with WRF about atmospheric features leading to heavy precipitation and flood events over the Central Andes' complex topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-04-01

It's known that some extremes such as heavy rainfalls, flood events, heatwaves and droughts depend largely on the atmospheric circulation and local features. Bolivia is no exception and while the large scale dynamics over the Amazon has been largely investigated, the local features driven by the Andes Cordillera and the Altiplano is still poorly documented. New insights on the regional atmospheric dynamics preceding heavy precipitation and flood events over the complex topography of the Andes-Amazon interface are added through numerical investigations of several case events: flash flood episodes over La Paz city and the extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin. Large scale atmospheric water transport is dynamically downscaled in order to take into account the complex topography forcing and local features as modulators of these events. For this purpose, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using various global datasets and parameterizations. While several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the dynamics of these episodes, they have not been tested yet through numerical modelling experiments. The simulations captures realistically the local water transport and the terrain influence over atmospheric circulation, even though the precipitation intensity is in general unrealistic. Nevertheless, the results show that Dynamical Downscaling over the tropical Andes' complex terrain provides useful meteorological data for a variety of studies and contributes to a better understanding of physical processes involved in the configuration of these events.

Microvascular reconstructive surgery in Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom: the US military experience performing free flaps in a combat zone.

PubMed

Klem, Christopher; Sniezek, Joseph C; Moore, Brian; Davis, Michael R; Coppit, George; Schmalbach, Cecelia

2013-08-01

Local nationals with complex wounds resulting from traumatic combat injuries during Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom usually must undergo reconstructive surgery in the combat zone. While the use of microvascular free-tissue transfer (free flaps) for traumatic reconstruction is well documented in the literature, various complicating factors exist when these intricate surgical procedures are performed in a theater of war. The microvascular experiences of six military surgeons deployed during a 30-month period between 2006 and 2011 in Iraq and Afghanistan were retrospectively reviewed. Twenty-nine patients presented with complex traumatic wounds. Thirty-one free flaps were performed for the 29 patients. Location of tissue defects included the lower extremity (15), face/neck (8), upper extremity (6). Limb salvage was successful in all but one patient. Six of eight patients with head and neck wounds were tolerating oral intake at the time of discharge. There were three flap losses in 3 patients; two patients who experienced flap loss underwent a successful second free or regional flap. Minor complications occurred in six patients. Microvascular free tissue transfer for complex tissue defects in a combat zone is a critically important task and can improve quality of life for host-nation patients. Major US combat hospitals deployed to a war zone should include personnel who are trained and capable of performing these complex reconstructive procedures and who understand the many nuances of optimizing outcomes in this challenging environment.

The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects.

PubMed

Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

SPECTRO-POLARIMETRIC IMAGING REVEALS HELICAL MAGNETIC FIELDS IN SOLAR PROMINENCE FEET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

González, M. J. Martínez; Sainz, R. Manso; Ramos, A. Asensio

2015-03-20

Solar prominences are clouds of cool plasma levitating above the solar surface and insulated from the million-degree corona by magnetic fields. They form in regions of complex magnetic topology, characterized by non-potential fields, which can evolve abruptly, disintegrating the prominence and ejecting magnetized material into the heliosphere. However, their physics is not yet fully understood because mapping such complex magnetic configurations and their evolution is extremely challenging, and must often be guessed by proxy from photometric observations. Using state-of-the-art spectro-polarimetric data, we reconstruct the structure of the magnetic field in a prominence. We find that prominence feet harbor helical magneticmore » fields connecting the prominence to the solar surface below.« less

Reconnaissance investigation of Caribbean extreme wave deposits--Preliminary observations, interpretations, and research directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Gelfenbaum, Guy

2006-01-01

 This report presents an overview of preliminary geological investigations and recommended future research activities in the Caribbean region pertaining to coastal hazards with an emphasis on establishing tsunami risk for U.S. territories. Fieldwork was conducted in March 2006 on the islands of Bonaire, Puerto Rico, and Guadeloupe to evaluate the stratigraphic records of extreme wave deposits as possible indicators of paleotsunami recurrence. Morphological, sedimentological, and stratigraphic evidence indicate that shore-parallel coral rubble deposits composed of coarse clasts and sand that are 10s of meters wide and several meters thick are depositional complexes that have accumulated for a few centuries or millennia, and are not entirely the result of one or a few tsunamis as previously reported. The origins of boulder fields on elevated rock platforms of the Caribbean islands are more complicated than the origins of ridge complexes because boulder fields can be constructed by either storm waves or tsunamis. What is needed now for more conclusive interpretations is a systematic sedimentological approach to deposit analysis and a set of criteria for distinguishing between coarse clast storm and tsunami deposits. Assembling more field data from other Caribbean islands, analyzing stratigraphic deposits on Puerto Rico and Bonaire, and investigating boulder field deposits resulting from a historical tsunami can accomplish this. Also needed are improved sediment transport models for coarse clasts that can be used to estimate the competence and capacity of tsunamis and storms waves and to determine whether a deposit likely was created by a tsunami or extreme storm. Improved models may also be useful for reconstructing the magnitude of extreme wave events.

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Imaging Saltwater Intrusion Along the Coast of Monterey Bay Using Long-Offset Electrical Resistivity Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goebel, M.; Knight, R. J.; Pidlisecky, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal regions represent a complex dynamic interface where saltwater intrusion moves seawater landward and groundwater discharge moves freshwater seaward. These processes can have a dramatic impact on water quality, affecting both humans and coastal ecosystems. The ability to map the subsurface distribution of fresh and salt water is a critical step in predicting and managing water quality in coastal regions. This is commonly accomplished using wells, which are expensive and provide point information, which may fail to capture the spatial complexity in subsurface conditions. We present an alternate method for acquiring data, long-offset Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), which is non-invasive, cost effective, and can address the problem of poor spatial sampling. This geophysical method can produce continuous profiles of subsurface electrical resistivity to a depth of 300 m, with spatial resolution on the order of tens of meters. Our research focuses on the Monterey Bay region, where sustained groundwater extraction over the past century has led to significant saltwater intrusion. ERT was acquired along 40 kilometers of the coast using the roll along method, allowing for continuous overlap in data acquisition. Electrodes were spaced every 22.2 m, with a total of 81 electrodes along the 1.8 km active cable length. The data show a complex distribution of fresh and salt water, influenced by geology, groundwater pumping, recharge, and land-use. While the inverted ERT resistivity profiles correspond well with existing data sets and geologic interpretations in the region, the spatial complexity revealed through the ERT data goes beyond what is known from traditional data sources alone. This leads us to conclude that this form of data can be extremely useful in informing and calibrating groundwater flow models, making targeted management decisions, and monitoring changes in subsurface salinities over time.

Effects of Mirror Therapy in Stroke Patients With Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1: A Randomized Controlled Study.

PubMed

Pervane Vural, Secil; Nakipoglu Yuzer, Guldal Funda; Sezgin Ozcan, Didem; Demir Ozbudak, Sibel; Ozgirgin, Nese

2016-04-01

To investigate the effects of mirror therapy on upper limb motor functions, spasticity, and pain intensity in patients with hemiplegia accompanied by complex regional pain syndrome type 1. Randomized controlled trial. Training and research hospital. Adult patients with first-time stroke and simultaneous complex regional pain syndrome type 1 of the upper extremity at the dystrophic stage (N=30). Both groups received a patient-specific conventional stroke rehabilitation program for 4 weeks, 5 d/wk, for 2 to 4 h/d. The mirror therapy group received an additional mirror therapy program for 30 min/d. We evaluated the scores of the Brunnstrom recovery stages of the arm and hand for motor recovery, wrist and hand subsections of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and motor items of the FIM-motor for functional status, Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS) for spasticity, and visual analog scale (VAS) for pain severity. After 4 weeks of rehabilitation, both groups had significant improvements in the FIM-motor and VAS scores compared with baseline scores. However, the scores improved more in the mirror therapy group than the control group (P<.001 and P=.03, respectively). Besides, the patients in the mirror therapy arm showed significant improvement in the Brunnstrom recovery stages and FMA scores (P<.05). No significant difference was found for MAS scores. In patients with stroke and simultaneous complex regional pain syndrome type 1, addition of mirror therapy to a conventional stroke rehabilitation program provides more improvement in motor functions of the upper limb and pain perception than conventional therapy without mirror therapy. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The coordinating evaluation and spatial correlation analysis of CSGC: A case study of Henan province, China.

PubMed

Xie, Mingxia; Wang, Jiayao; Chen, Ke

2017-01-01

This study investigates the basic characteristics and proposes a concept for the complex system of geographical conditions (CSGC). By analyzing the DPSIR model and its correlation with the index system, we selected indexes for geographical conditions according to the resources, ecology, environment, economy and society parameters to build a system. This system consists of four hierarchies: index, classification, element and target levels. We evaluated the elements or indexes of the complex system using the TOPSIS method and a general model coordinating multiple complex systems. On this basis, the coordination analysis experiment of geographical conditions is applied to cities in the Henan province in China. The following conclusions were reached: ①According to the pressure, state and impact of geographical conditions, relatively consistent measures are taken around the city, but with conflicting results. ②The coordination degree of geographical conditions is small among regions showing large differences in classification index value. The degree of coordination of such regions is prone to extreme values; however, the smaller the difference the larger the coordination degree. ③The coordinated development of geographical conditions in the Henan province is at the stage of the point axis.

An Ensemble-Based Forecasting Framework to Optimize Reservoir Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events are stressing the need to manage water resources on shorter timescales. Short-term management of water resources becomes proactive when inflow forecasts are available and this information can be effectively used in the control strategy. This work investigates the utility of short term hydrological ensemble forecasts for operational decision making during extreme weather events. An advanced automated hydrologic prediction framework integrating a regional scale hydrologic model, GIS datasets and the meteorological ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was coupled to an implicit multi-objective dynamic programming model to optimize releases from a water supply reservoir. The proposed methodology was evaluated by retrospectively forecasting the inflows to the Oradell reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during the extreme hydrologic event, Hurricane Irene. Additionally, the flexibility of the forecasting framework was investigated by forecasting the inflows from a moderate rainfall event to provide important perspectives on using the framework to assist reservoir operations during moderate events. The proposed forecasting framework seeks to provide a flexible, assistive tool to alleviate the complexity of operational decision-making.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Laws of distribution of the snow cover on the greater Caucasus (Soviet Union)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurtovaya, Y. Y.; Sulakvelidze, G. K.; Yashina, A. V.

1985-01-01

The laws of the distribution of the snow cover on the mountains of the greater Caucasus are discussed. It is shown that an extremely unequal distribution of the snow cover is caused by the complex orography of this territory, the diversity of climatic conditions and by the difference in altitude. Regions of constant, variable and unstable snow cover are distinguished because of the clearly marked division into altitude layers, each of which is characterized by climatic differences in the nature of the snow accumulation.

Near-Earth Asteroid 2005 CR37: Radar Images and Photometry of a Candidate Contact Binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benner, Lance A. M.; Nolan, Michael C.; Ostro, Steven J.; Giorgini, Jon D.; Pray, Donald P.; Harris, Alan W.; Magri, Christopher; Margot, Jean-Luc

2006-01-01

Arecibo (2380 MHz, 13 cm) radar observations of 2005 CR37 provide detailed images of a candidate contact binary: a 1.8-km-long, extremely bifurcated object. Although the asteroid's two lobes are round, there are regions of modest topographic relief, such as an elevated, 200-m-wide facet, that suggest that the lobes are geologically more complex than either coherent fragments or homogeneous rubble piles. Since January 1999, about 9% of NEAs larger than approx.200 m imaged by radar can be described as candidate contact binaries.

A novel Iterative algorithm to text segmentation for web born-digital images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhigang; Zhu, Yuesheng; Sun, Ziqiang; Liu, Zhen

2015-07-01

Since web born-digital images have low resolution and dense text atoms, text region over-merging and miss detection are still two open issues to be addressed. In this paper a novel iterative algorithm is proposed to locate and segment text regions. In each iteration, the candidate text regions are generated by detecting Maximally Stable Extremal Region (MSER) with diminishing thresholds, and categorized into different groups based on a new similarity graph, and the texted region groups are identified by applying several features and rules. With our proposed overlap checking method the final well-segmented text regions are selected from these groups in all iterations. Experiments have been carried out on the web born-digital image datasets used for robust reading competition in ICDAR 2011 and 2013, and the results demonstrate that our proposed scheme can significantly reduce both the number of over-merge regions and the lost rate of target atoms, and the overall performance outperforms the best compared with the methods shown in the two competitions in term of recall rate and f-score at the cost of slightly higher computational complexity.

Automated quadrilateral surface discretization method and apparatus usable to generate mesh in a finite element analysis system

DOEpatents

Blacker, Teddy D.

1994-01-01

An automatic quadrilateral surface discretization method and apparatus is provided for automatically discretizing a geometric region without decomposing the region. The automated quadrilateral surface discretization method and apparatus automatically generates a mesh of all quadrilateral elements which is particularly useful in finite element analysis. The generated mesh of all quadrilateral elements is boundary sensitive, orientation insensitive and has few irregular nodes on the boundary. A permanent boundary of the geometric region is input and rows are iteratively layered toward the interior of the geometric region. Also, an exterior permanent boundary and an interior permanent boundary for a geometric region may be input and the rows are iteratively layered inward from the exterior boundary in a first counter clockwise direction while the rows are iteratively layered from the interior permanent boundary toward the exterior of the region in a second clockwise direction. As a result, a high quality mesh for an arbitrary geometry may be generated with a technique that is robust and fast for complex geometric regions and extreme mesh gradations.

The Role of Air-sea Coupling in the Response of Climate Extremes to Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, S.

2017-12-01

Air-sea interactions dominate the climate of surrounding regions and thus also modulate the climate response to local and remote aerosol forcings. To clearly isolate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols, we conduct experiments with a full complexity atmosphere model that is coupled to a series of ocean models progressively increasing in complexity. The ocean models range from a data ocean model with prescribed SSTs, to a slab ocean model that only allows thermodynamic interactions, to a full dynamic ocean model. In a preliminary study, we have conducted single forcing experiments with black carbon aerosols in an atmosphere GCM coupled to a data ocean model and a slab ocean model. We find that while black carbon aerosols can intensify mean and extreme summer monsoonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, air-sea coupling can dramatically modulate this response. Black carbon aerosols in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea result in an increase of sea surface temperatures there in the slab ocean model, which intensify the low-level Somali Jet. The associated increase in moisture transport into Western India enhances the mean as well as extreme precipitation. In prescribed SST experiments, where SSTs are not allowed to respond BC aerosols, the response is muted. We will present results from a hierarchy of GCM simulations that investigate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols in more detail.

Structure and growth pattern of the bizarre hemispheric prominence on the rostrum of the fossil beaked whale Globicetus hiberus (Mammalia, Cetacea, Ziphiidae).

PubMed

Dumont, Maïtena; de Buffrénil, Vivian; Miján, Ismael; Lambert, Olivier

2016-10-01

The rostrum of most ziphiids (beaked whales) displays bizarre swollen regions, accompanied with extreme hypermineralisation and an alteration of the collagenous mesh of the bone. The functional significance of this specialization remains obscure. With the voluminous and dense hemispheric excrescence protruding from the premaxillae, the recently described fossil ziphiid Globicetus hiberus is the most spectacular case. This study describes the histological structure and interprets the growth pattern of this unique feature. Histologically, the prominence in Globicetus is made up of an atypical fibro-lamellar complex displaying an irregular laminar organization and extreme compactness (osteosclerosis). Its development is suggested to have resulted from a protraction of periosteal accretion over the premaxillae, long after the end of somatic growth. Complex shifts in the geometry of this tissue are likely to have occurred during its accretion and no indication of Haversian remodeling could be found. X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy indicate that the bone matrix in the premaxillary prominence of Globicetus closely resembles that of the rostrum of the extant beaked whale Mesoplodon densirostris: apatite crystals are of common size and strongly oriented, but the collagenous meshwork within bone matrix seems to be extremely sparse. These morphological and structural data are discussed in the light of functional interpretations proposed for the highly unusual and diverse ziphiid rostrum. J. Morphol. 277:1292-1308, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Non coding extremities of the seven influenza virus type C vRNA segments: effect on transcription and replication by the type C and type A polymerase complexes

PubMed Central

Crescenzo-Chaigne, Bernadette; Barbezange, Cyril; van der Werf, Sylvie

2008-01-01

Background The transcription/replication of the influenza viruses implicate the terminal nucleotide sequences of viral RNA, which comprise sequences at the extremities conserved among the genomic segments as well as variable 3' and 5' non-coding (NC) regions. The plasmid-based system for the in vivo reconstitution of functional ribonucleoproteins, upon expression of viral-like RNAs together with the nucleoprotein and polymerase proteins has been widely used to analyze transcription/replication of influenza viruses. It was thus shown that the type A polymerase could transcribe and replicate type A, B, or C vRNA templates whereas neither type B nor type C polymerases were able to transcribe and replicate type A templates efficiently. Here we studied the importance of the NC regions from the seven segments of type C influenza virus for efficient transcription/replication by the type A and C polymerases. Results The NC sequences of the seven genomic segments of the type C influenza virus C/Johannesburg/1/66 strain were found to be more variable in length than those of the type A and B viruses. The levels of transcription/replication of viral-like vRNAs harboring the NC sequences of the respective type C virus segments flanking the CAT reporter gene were comparable in the presence of either type C or type A polymerase complexes except for the NS and PB2-like vRNAs. For the NS-like vRNA, the transcription/replication level was higher after introduction of a U residue at position 6 in the 5' NC region as for all other segments. For the PB2-like vRNA the CAT expression level was particularly reduced with the type C polymerase. Analysis of mutants of the 5' NC sequence in the PB2-like vRNA, the shortest 5' NC sequence among the seven segments, showed that additional sequences within the PB2 ORF were essential for the efficiency of transcription but not replication by the type C polymerase complex. Conclusion In the context of a PB2-like reporter vRNA template, the sequence upstream the polyU stretch plays a role in the transcription/replication process by the type C polymerase complex. PMID:18973655

Extreme precipitation forecasting in the Chilean Andean region with complex topography using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gironás, J.; Yáñez Morroni, G.; Caneo, M.; Delgado, R.

2017-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is broadly used for weather forecasting, hindcasting and researching due to its good performance. However, the atmospheric conditions for simulating are not always optimal when it includes complex topographies: affecting WRF mathematical stability and convergence, therefore, its performance. As Chile is a country strongly characterized by a complex topography and high gradients of elevation, WRF is ineffective resolving Chilean mountainous terrain and foothills. The need to own an effective weather forecasting tool relies on that Chile's main cities are located in these regions. Furthermore, the most intense rainfall events take place here, commonly caused by the presence of cutoff lows. This work analyzes a microphysics scheme ensemble to enhance initial forecasts made by the Chilean Weather Agency (DMC). These forecasts were made over the Santiago piedmont, in Quebrada de Ramón watershed, located upstream an urban area highly populated. In this region a non-existing planning increases the potential damage of a flash flood. An initial testing was made over different vertical levels resolution (39 and 50 levels), and subsequently testing with land use and surface models, and finally with the initial and boundary condition data (GFS/FNL). Our task made emphasis in analyzing microphysics and lead time (3 to 5 days before the storm peak) in the computational simulations over three extreme rainfall events between 2015 and 2017. WRF shortcoming are also related to the complex configuration of the synoptic events, even when the steep topography difficult the rainfall event peak amount, and to a lesser degree, the exact rainfall event beginning prediction. No evident trend was found in the lead time, but as expected, better results in rainfall and zero isotherm height are obtained with smaller anticipation. We found that WRF do predict properly the N-hours with the biggest amount of rainfall (5 hours corresponding to Quebrada de Ramón's time of concentration) and the temperatures during the event. This is a fundamental input to a hydrological model that could forecast flash floods. Finally, WSM-6Class microphysics was chosen as the one with best performance, but a geostatistical approach to countervail WRF forecasts' shortcomings over Andean piedmont is required.

Sensitivity of WRF-ARW for Heavy Precipitation Event over the Eastern Black Sea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doǧan, Onur Hakan; Önol, Barış

2017-04-01

In this study, we examined the extreme summer precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using WRF-ARW. 11 people were killed by the flood and many buildings were damaged by the landslides in Artvin province. The flood caused by heavy precipitation between August 23 and 24, 2015 and the station observation is 255 mm total precipitation for the two days. We have also used satellite based observational data (Global Precipitation Measurement: GPM), which represents 150 mm total precipitation during case, to validate precipitation simulations. We designed three nested domains with 27-9-3 km resolutions for the simulations and the inner domain covers the all Black Sea and the surrounded coasts. The simulations have been driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim data and the initial conditions have been generated for 4 different simulations which are 3-days, 7-days, 15-days and 25-days long. WRF-ARW model physics parameters have been tested to improve simulation capability for extreme precipitation events. The microphysics (Kessler and New-Thompson) and PBL (YSU PBL and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) options have been applied for each simulations separately, therefore 15 sensitivity simulation have been analyzed by using different parametrizations. In general, all simulations underestimated the two days extreme precipitation event which the large scale flow interact with warmer sea surface temperatures and complex topography over the eastern Black Sea region. The 3-days simulation with Kessler microphysics and YSU PBL predicts 148 mm precipitation which is highest simulated precipitation compare to all simulations for the corresponding station location. Moreover 25-days simulation represents better spatial coverage for precipitation pattern compare to the GPM data.

Geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Bookhagen, Bodo; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen

2014-05-01

Complex networks (CN) and event synchronization (ES) methods have been applied to study a number of climate phenomena such as Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), South-American Monsoon, and African Monsoon. These methods proved to be powerful tools to infer interdependencies in climate dynamics between geographical sites, spatial structures, and key regions of the considered climate phenomenon. Here, we use these methods to study the spatial temporal variability of the extreme rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, in order to filter the data by coarse-graining the network, and to identify geographic patterns that are signature features (spatial signatures) of the ISM. We find four main geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent using up-to-date satellite-derived, and high temporal and spatial resolution rain-gauge interpolated daily rainfall datasets. In order to prove that our results are also relevant for other climatic variables like pressure and temperature, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). We find that two of the patterns revealed from the CN extreme rainfall analysis coincide with those obtained for the pressure and temperature fields, and all four above mentioned patterns can be explained by topography, winds, and monsoon circulation. CN and ES enable to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to infer geographic pattern that are spatial signatures of the ISM. These patterns deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

Global Change Network: Combine Nutrient Network and Drought Net in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Wang, C.; Zhu, J.; Xu, X.; Yang, H.; Wei, C.; Cong, N.; Wu, H.; Li, H.; Tian, D.; An, H.; Yu, G.

2017-12-01

Globally, all ecosystems will be impacted to some extent by changes in climate means and more frequent and severe periods of climatic extremes. Although there have been numerous studies examining the effects of changes in climatic means on ecological processes and ecosystems, research on climate extremes is far less common and is only now emerging as a distinct research field in ecology. Furthermore, although we have learned much in the past 20 years about how individual ecosystems are likely to respond to climate change, extending this knowledge to regional and continental scales has been a far greater challenge because of the inconsistent design of experiments and ecological complexity. In order to better forecast how entire regions will respond to eutrophication and extreme drought, two key network has been set up, i.e. Nutrient Network, Drought Net. However, there were few sites in China in the network studies, where locates Eurasian Steppe (the biggest grassland in the world) and Tibetan Plateau grassland (the world's highest and largest plateau grassland). To fill the great gap, we have set up ten sites in China (including 5 sites in Eurasia Steppe and 5 site in Tibetan Plateau), combing Nutrient Network and Drought Net treatments and also increased precipitation, called Global Change Network. There are 16 treatments with 6 repeats, and thus 96 plots in the global change network. The nutrient addition treatments are the same with Nutrient Network, i.e. 10 treatments. Precipitation change treatments include an extreme drought (the same with Drought Net) and a water addition (the amount is the same with drought treatment) treatment. The interactive treatments were only conducted in control N and NPK.

Predicting the Effect of Changing Precipitation Extremes and Land Cover Change on Urban Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Recent research shows that precipitation extremes in many of the largest U.S. urban areas have increased over the last 60 years. These changes have important implications for stormwater runoff and water quality, which in urban areas are dominated by the most extreme precipitation events. We assess the potential implications of changes in extreme precipitation and changing land cover in urban and urbanizing watersheds at the regional scale using a combination of hydrology and water quality models. Specifically, we describe the integration of a spatially distributed hydrological model - the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the urban water quality model in EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM10, and dynamical and statistical downscaling methods applied to global climate predictions. Key output water quality parameters include total suspended solids (TSS), toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal coliform bacteria and stream temperature. We have evaluated the performance of the modeling system in the highly urbanized Mercer Creek watershed in the rapidly growing Bellevue urban area in WA, USA. The results suggest that the model is able to (1) produce reasonable streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales; (2) provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that mostly agree with observations throughout a complex stream network, and characterize impacts of climate, landscape, near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature at local and regional scales; and (3) capture plausibly the response of water quality constituents to varying magnitude of precipitation events in urban environments. Next we will extend the scope of the study from the Mercer Creek watershed to include the entire Puget Sound Basin, WA, USA.

High resolution field monitoring in coastal wetlands of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic to support quantification of storm surge attenuation at the regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquier, A. E.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Garzon Hervas, J. L.; Ferreira, C.

2015-12-01

Hurricane Sandy (2012) demonstrated the vulnerability of the US East Coast to extreme events, and motivated the exploration of resilient coastal defenses that incorporate both hard engineering and natural strategies such as the restoration, creation and enhancement of coastal wetlands and marshes. Past laboratory and numerical studies have indicated the potential of wetlands to attenuate storm surge, and have demonstrated the complexity of the surge hydrodynamic interactions with wetlands. Many factors control the propagation of surge in these natural systems including storm characteristics, storm-induced hydrodynamics, landscape complexity, vegetation biomechanical properties and the interactions of these different factors. While previous field studies have largely focused on the impact of vegetation characteristics on attenuation processes, few have been undertaken with holistic consideration of these factors and their interactions. To bridge this gap of in-situ field data and to support the calibration of storm surge and wave numerical models such that wetlands can be correctly parametrized on a regional scale, we are carrying out high resolution surveys of hydrodynamics (pressure, current intensity and direction), morphology (topo-bathymetry, micro-topography) and vegetation (e.g. stem density, height, vegetation frontal area) in 4 marshes along the Chesapeake Bay. These areas are representative of the ecosystems and morphodynamic functions present in this region, from the tidal Potomac marshes to the barrier-island back-bays of the Delmarva Peninsula. The field monitoring program supports the investigation of the influence of different types of vegetation on water level, swell and wind wave attenuation and morphological evolution during storm surges. This dataset is also used to calibrate and validate numerical simulations of hurricane storm surge propagation at regional and local scales and to support extreme weather coastal resilience planning in the region. Figure 1 shows an area prone to storm surge impact within one of the 4 study sites: the Dameron Marsh Natural Area Preserve, located on the shoreline of the Northern Peninsula of Virginia, along the Chesapeake Bay.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data - Regional Climate Maps:

Science.gov Websites

; Precipitation & Temperature > Regional Climate Maps: USA Menu Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 12-Month Weekly Total Precipitation Average Temperature Extreme Maximum Temperature Extreme Minimum Temperature Departure of Average Temperature from Normal Extreme Apparent Temperature Minimum Wind Chill Temperature

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

The investigation of form and processes in the coastal zone under extreme storm events - the case study of Rethymno, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afentoulis, Vasileios; Mohammadi, Bijan; Tsoukala, Vasiliki

2017-04-01

Coastal zone is a significant geographical and particular region, since it gathers a wide range of social-human's activities and appears to be a complex as well as fragile system of natural variables. Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from serious coastal hazards, such as shoreline erosion and flooding related to extreme hydro-meteorological events: storm surges, heavy precipitation, tsunamis and tides. In order to investigate the impact of these extreme events on the coastal zone, it is necessary to describe the driving mechanisms which contribute to its destabilization and more precisely the interaction between the wave forces and the transport of sediment. The aim of the present study is to examine the capability of coastal zone processes simulation under extreme wave events, using numerical models, in the coastal area of Rethymno, Greece. Rethymno city is one of the eleven case study areas of PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions) project, an EU funded research project, which aims at developing adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities focusing on extreme hydro-meteorological events, with a multidisciplinary approach integrating social, environmental and technical research and innovation so as to increase the resilience of coastal regions all over the world. Within this framework, three different numerical models have been used: the MIKE 21 - DHI, the XBeach model and a numerical formulation for sea bed evolution, developed by Afaf Bouharguane and Bijan Mohammadi (2013). For the determination of the wave and hydrodynamic conditions, as well as the assessment of the sediment transport components, the MIKE 21 SW and the MIKE 21 FM modules have been applied and the bathymetry of Rethymno is arranged into a 2D unstructured mesh. This method of digitalization was selected because of its ability to easily represent the complex geometry of the coastal zone. It allows smaller scale wave characteristics to be represented at a finer resolution, near of the shore and the shoreline structures, and the offshore respective characteristics at a coarser resolution. For the investigation of the morphological evolution of the sandy bed a new numerical model has been used. The proposed model is based on shallow water equations and on minimization principles in order to investigate the coupling between the flow and the sediment, considering the sea bed as a structure with low stiffness. Minimization principles have been used many times in the past to design defense structures against beach erosion. In previous works, the designed structures were independent of time and were built once for all. Hence, the present method goes one step further giving the possibility to the structure to change in time. The fundamental assumption of this method is the fact that bed adapts to the flow by some sort of optimal sand transport in order to minimize some energy expression, optimal transport is seen here as minimal change in the bed shape. Furthermore, in order to verify the accuracy of this formulation the output is compared with the results of the XBeach model, under the same simulation conditions.

Syndrome of fixed dystonia in adolescents--short term outcome in 4 cases.

PubMed

Majumdar, Anirban; López-Casas, Jesús; Poo, Pilar; Colomer, Jaume; Galvan, Marta; Lingappa, Lokesh; Short, Clare; Jardine, Philip E; Fernández-Alvarez, Emilio

2009-09-01

We describe the clinical features, investigations and outcome of 4 adolescents aged 13, 16, 17 and 19 years, with fixed dystonia. The diagnosis was made within 6 months of the onset of symptoms. One patient had an identifiable traumatic precipitant. All the affected extremities had pain, sudomotor and vascular changes which were consistent with complex regional pain syndrome. The extremities affected by dystonia were the foot and the hand. The dystonia spread to affect other extremities in one patient. One patient had hemifacial spasm. Examination of the central and peripheral nervous system and allied investigations failed to reveal an organic cause. Common genetic causes for dystonia were excluded. The response to physical treatments for the affected extremities, such as Botulinum Toxin and surgery was poor. In all our cases there were significant psychological and psychiatric factors. Three patients fully met the criteria for psychogenic dystonia and responded well to psychological intervention. Fixed dystonia in adolescents is an uncommon disorder of unknown aetiology, usually presenting in girls, which can be very disabling and difficult to treat. The affected parts of the body are usually painful and show vascular changes. The condition is allied to CRPS. Treatment with multidisciplinary approach including psychological measures and physiotherapy is more likely to be successful and may prevent unnecessary physical measures.

Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems following extreme events: net and differential responses.

PubMed

Rich, Paul M; Breshears, David D; White, Amanda B

2008-02-01

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "green-up" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional-scale piñon pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous green-up following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.

Extreme Trust Region Policy Optimization for Active Object Recognition.

PubMed

Liu, Huaping; Wu, Yupei; Sun, Fuchun; Huaping Liu; Yupei Wu; Fuchun Sun; Sun, Fuchun; Liu, Huaping; Wu, Yupei

2018-06-01

In this brief, we develop a deep reinforcement learning method to actively recognize objects by choosing a sequence of actions for an active camera that helps to discriminate between the objects. The method is realized using trust region policy optimization, in which the policy is realized by an extreme learning machine and, therefore, leads to efficient optimization algorithm. The experimental results on the publicly available data set show the advantages of the developed extreme trust region optimization method.

Response of the Vegetation-Climate System to High Temperature (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, J. A.

2009-12-01

High temperature extremes may lead to inhibition of photosynthesis and stomatal closure at the leaf scale. When these responses occur over regional scales, they can initiate a positive feedback loop in the coupled vegetation-climate system. The fraction of net radiation that is used by the land surface to evaporate water decreases leading to deeper, drier boundary layers, fewer clouds, increased solar radiation reaching the surface, and possibility reduced precipitation. These interactions within the vegetation-climate system may amplify natural (or greenhouse gas forced) variations in temperature and further stress the vegetation. Properly modeling of this system depends, among other things, on getting the plant responses to high temperature correct. I will review the current state of this problem and present some studies of rain forest trees to high temperature and drought conducted in the Biosphere 2 enclosure that illustrate how experiments in controlled systems can contribute to our understanding of complex systems to extreme events.

Dillon cutoff-Basement-involved tectonic link between the disturbed belt of west-central Montana and the overthrust belt of extreme southwestern Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, J. Michael; Schmidt, Christopher J.; Genovese, Paul W.

1990-11-01

The front of the Cordilleran fold and thrust belt in western Montana follows the disturbed belt in the north, merges with the southwest Montana transverse zone in the west-central part of the region, and in southwestern Montana is marked by a broad zone characterized by complex interaction between thrust belt structures and basement uplifts. The front margin of the thrust belt in Montana reflects mainly thin-skinned tectonic features in the north, an east-trending lateral ramp that curves southwest in the central part into the Dillon cutoff, an oblique-slip, thick-skinned displacement transfer zone that cuts through basement rocks of the Lima recess, and a zone of overlap between thin- and thick-skinned thrusts in extreme southwestern Montana. The transverse ramp and basement-involved thrust faults are controlled by Proterozoic structures.

Wireless peripheral nerve stimulation for complex regional pain syndrome type I of the upper extremity: a case illustration introducing a novel technology.

PubMed

Herschkowitz, Daniel; Kubias, Jana

2018-04-13

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a debilitating painful disorder, cryptic in its pathophysiology and refractory condition with limited therapeutic options. Type I CRPS with its variable relationship to trauma has often no discernible fractures or nerve injuries and remains enigmatic in its response to conservative treatment as well as the other limited interventional therapies. Neuromodulation in the form of spinal cord and dorsal root ganglion stimulation (SCS, DRGS) has shown encouraging results, especially of causalgia or CRPS I of lower extremities. Upper extremity CRPS I is far more difficult. To report a case of upper extremity CRPS I treated by wireless peripheral nerve stimulation (WPNS) for its unique features and minimally invasive technique. The system does not involve implantation of battery or its connections. A 47 year old female patient presented with refractory CRPS I following a blunt trauma to her right forearm. As interventional treatment in the form of local anesthetics (Anesthesia of peripheral branches of radial nerve) and combined infusions of ketamine/lidocaine failed to provide any significant relief she opted for WPNS treatment. Based on the topographic distribution, two electrodes (Stimwave Leads: FR4A-RCV-A0 with tines, Generation 1 and FR4A-RCV-B0 with tines, Generation 1), were placed along the course of radial and median nerves under ultrasonography monitoring and guided by intraoperative stimulation. This procedure did not involve implantation of extension cables or the power source. At a frequency of 60 Hz and 300 μs the stimulation induced paresthesia along the distribution of the nerves. Therapeutic relief was observed with high frequency (HF) stimulation (HF 10 kHz/32 μs, 2.0 mA) reducing her pain from a visual analogue scale (VAS) score of 7-4 postoperatively. Three HF stimulations programs were provided at the time of discharge, as she improved in her sensory impairment to touch, pressure and temperature at her first follow up visit. At 5-months she was able to drive, did not require opioids and allodynia disappeared. In a case with difficult CRPS I involving upper extremity, a minimally invasive WPNS of radial and median nerves provided good symptomatic relief. The procedure was tolerated well and both electrodes remained in place without any adverse events. In view of the very limited options currently available to manage CRPS, WPNS can be a promising therapeutic modality.

Future projections of total snowfall and heavy snowfall in Japan simulated by large ensemble regional climate simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Murata, A.; Nosaka, M.; Ito, R.; Dairaku, K.; Sasai, T.; Yamazaki, T.; Sugimoto, S.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Kawazoe, S.; Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Takayabu, I.

2017-12-01

We performed large ensemble climate experiments to investigate future changes in extreme weather events using Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) with about 60 km grid spacing and Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with 20 km grid spacing (NHRCM20). The global climate simulations are prescribed by the past and future sea surface temperature (SST). Two future climate simulations are conducted so that the global-mean surface air temperature rise 2 K and 4 K from the pre-industrial period. The non-warming simulations are also conducted by MRI-AGCM and NHRCM20. We focus on the future changes in snowfall in Japan. In winter, the Sea of Japan coast experiences heavy snowfall due to East Asian winter monsoon. The cold and dry air from the continent obtains abundant moisture from the warm Sea of Japan, causing enormous amount of snowfall especially in the mountainous area. The NHRCM20 showed winter total snowfall decreases in the most parts of Japan. In contrast, extremely heavy daily snowfall could increase at mountainous areas in the Central Japan and Northern parts of Japan when strong cold air outbreak occurs and the convergence zone appears over the Sea of Japan. The warmer Sea of Japan in the future climate could supply more moisture than that in the present climate, indicating that the cumulus convections could be enhanced around the convergence zone in the Sea of Japan. However, the horizontal resolution of 20 km is not enough to resolve Japan`s complex topography. Therefore, dynamical downscaling with 5 km grid spacing (NHRCM05) is also conducted using NHRCM20. The NHRCM05 does a better job simulating the regional boundary of snowfall and shows more detailed changes in future snowfall characteristics. The future changes in total and extremely heavy snowfall depend on the regions, elevations, and synoptic conditions around Japan.

Characteristics of tropical cyclone extreme precipitation and its preliminary causes in Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Wenyu; Ren, Fumin; Wu, Liguang; Chen, Lianshou; Ding, Chenchen

2018-03-01

Extreme precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) is of great concern to Southeast China. Regional characteristics of daily TC-induced extreme precipitation (TCEP) between 1958 and 2016 and the associated preliminary causes over Southeast China (Zhejiang, Fujian, and Shanghai) were examined by applying the objective synoptic analysis technique, TC track similarity area index, daily precipitation observations, and reanalysis data. The intensity and frequency of high-intensity TCEP (≥ 100, ≥ 200, ≥ 300 mm) have had an increasing trend over recent decades. Most of TCEP occurs from July to September, with frequency peaks in August for TCEP at all intensity levels, apart from the frequency for TCEP ≥ 300 mm that peaks in September. Regions with high frequency and large TCEP (R-HFLTs) (relatively high frequency for TCEP ≥ 100 mm) were concentrated along the coastline of the southern coastal Fujian (Southern R-HFLT), the regions from northern coastal Fujian to southernmost coastal Zhejiang (Central R-HFLT), and central coastal Zhejiang (Northern R-HFLT), decreasing from the coastline to inland. The Central R-HFLT region had the highest TCEP intensity and frequency for TCEP ≥ 100 mm compared with the other R-HFLTs. Further analysis showed that the special terrain of Southeast China matched the spatial distribution of TCEP, which highlights the significance of the topography of Southeast China. To discover other factors responsible for the heavy TCEP, we compared two TC groups that influence Central R-HFLT. Under a more northerly direction and slow movement combined with the unique terrain, TCs with stronger vortex circulation generated heavier TCEP during landfall in Central R-HFLT. Heavy TCEP occurred with easterly and southeasterly winds interacting with terrain over the eastern coast for Central R-HFLT. Although large changes in the internal and external environment were sensitive to the observed TCEP intensity, the interaction between TC circulation and the complex topography in Southeast China under the northerly track was the dominant factor.

Distant and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Influences Governing Integrated Water Vapor Transport and the Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.

2017-12-01

This presentation will show how the evolution of the large-scale and regional-scale atmospheric circulation contributes to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). An EPE requires that tropospheric moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the associated removal of hydrometeors be balanced by moisture replenishment via integrated (water) vapor transport (IVT) to continuously replenish condensed moisture. Moisture source regions may be distant or regional. Distant moisture sources may require the interaction of lower- and upper-level jet streams with a pre-existing mobile atmospheric disturbance to produce sufficient lift to condense moisture. Pre-existing regional moisture sources may require frontal lifting the presence of MFC to condense moisture. In cases of long-range IVT, such as moisture from a western North Pacific typhoon being drawn poleward along an atmospheric river (AR) toward the west coast of North America, moisture may be transported 1000s of kilometers along a low-level jet before a combination of dynamic and orographic lift results in an EPE. Alternatively, in the case of a typical summer warm and humid air mass over the continental United States, unused moisture may exist for several days in this air mass before sufficient MFC associated with a thermally direct mesoscale frontal circulation can concentrate and condense the moisture. In this case, there may be no long-range IVT via ARs. Instead, the atmospheric circulations may evolve to produce sustained MFC associated with mesoscale frontal circulations, especially in the presence of complex terrain, to produce an EPE. During this presentation, examples of EPEs associated with long-range IVT and distant MFC versus EPEs associated with regional MFC and mesoscale frontal circulations will be illustrated.

Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies: Extreme Precipitation Events in Southeastern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.; Gomes, G.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2016-12-01

Frequently found in southeastern South America during the warm season from October through May, strong and localized precipitation maxima are usually associated with the presence of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) travelling across the region. Flashfloods and landslides can be caused by these extremes in precipitation, with damages to the local communities. Heavily populated, southeastern South America hosts many agricultural activities and hydroelectric production. It encompasses one of the most important river basins in South America, the La Plata River Basin. Therefore, insufficient precipitation is equally prejudicial to the region socio-economic activities. MCCs are originated in the warm season of many regions of the world, however South American MCCs are related to the most severe thunderstorms, and have significantly contributed to the precipitation regime. We used the hourly outputs of Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, in the analysis of the dynamics and physical characteristics of MCCs in South America. SRDAS is the 25-km resolution downscaling of a global reanalysis available from January 1998 through December 2010. The Regional Spectral Model is the SRDAS atmospheric component and assimilates satellite-based precipitation estimates from the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique global precipitation analyses. In this study, the SRDAS atmospheric and land-surface variables, global reanalysis products, infrared satellite imagery, and the physical retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), on board of the NASA's Aqua satellite, were used in the evaluation of the MCCs developed in southeastern South America from 2008 and 2010. Low-level circulations and vertical profiles were analyzed together to establish the relevance of the moisture transport in connection with the upper-troposphere dynamics to the development of those MCCs.

An overview of the South Atlantic Ocean climate variability and air-sea interaction processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzi, L. P.; Parise, C. K.; Souza, R.; Gherardi, D. F.; Camargo, R.; Soares, H. C.; Silveira, I.

2013-05-01

The Ocean Modeling Group at the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) in Brazil has been developing several studies to understand the role of the Atlantic ocean on the South America climate. Studies include simulating the dynamics of the Tropical South-Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. This is part of an ongoing international cooperation, in which Brazil participates with in situ observations, numerical modeling and statistical analyses. We have focused on the understanding of the impacts of extreme weather events over the Tropical South Atlantic Ocean and their prediction on different time-scales. One such study is aimed at analyzing the climate signal generated by imposing an extreme condition on the Antarctic sea ice and considering different complexities of the sea ice model. The influence of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is also investigated through in situ data analysis of different cruises and numerical experiments with a regional numerical model. There is also an ongoing investigation that revealed basin-scale interannual climate variation with impacts on the Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which are strongly correlated with climate indices such as ENSO, AAO and PDO.

Extreme heterogeneity of polyadenylation sites in mRNAs encoding chloroplast RNA-binding proteins in Nicotiana plumbaginifolia.

PubMed

Klahre, U; Hemmings-Mieszczak, M; Filipowicz, W

1995-06-01

We have previously characterized nuclear cDNA clones encoding two RNA binding proteins, CP-RBP30 and CP-RBP-31, which are targeted to chloroplasts in Nicotiana plumbaginifolia. In this report we describe the analysis of the 3'-untranslated regions (3'-UTRs) in 22 CP-RBP30 and 8 CP-RBP31 clones which reveals that mRNAs encoding both proteins have a very complex polyadenylation pattern. Fourteen distinct poly(A) sites were identified among CP-RBP30 clones and four sites among the CP-RBP31 clones. The authenticity of the sites was confirmed by RNase A/T1 mapping of N. plumbaginifolia RNA. CP-RBP30 provides an extreme example of the heterogeneity known to be a feature of mRNA polyadenylation in higher plants. Using PCR we have demonstrated that CP-RBP genes in N. plumbaginifolia and N. sylvestris, in addition to the previously described introns interrupting the coding region, contain an intron located in the 3' non-coding part of the gene. In the case of the CP-RBP31, we have identified one polyadenylation event occurring in this intron.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Impacts of urbanization on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Hiteshri; Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-01-01

areas have different climatology with respect to their rural surroundings. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth over the last 30 years. Here we take up an observational study to understand the influence of urbanization on the characteristics of precipitation (specifically extremes) in India. We identify 42 urban regions and compare their extreme rainfall characteristics with those of surrounding rural areas. We observe that, on an overall scale, the urban signatures on extreme rainfall are not prominently and consistently visible, but they are spatially nonuniform. Zonal analysis reveals significant impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall in central and western regions of India. An additional examination, to understand the influences of urbanization on heavy rainfall climatology, is carried with station level data using a statistical method, quantile regression. This is performed for the most populated city of India, Mumbai, in pair with a nearby nonurban area, Alibaug; both having similar geographic location. The derived extreme rainfall regression quantiles reveal the sensitivity of extreme rainfall events to the increased urbanization. Overall the study identifies the climatological zones in India, where increased urbanization affects regional rainfall pattern and extremes, with a detailed case study of Mumbai. This also calls attention to the need of further experimental investigation, for the identification of the key climatological processes, in different regions of India, affected by increased urbanization.

Differential imprints of different ENSO flavors in global patterns of seasonal precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key interlinkages between ENSO phases and droughts as well as extremely wet seasons depend crucially on the specific type of El Nino and La Nina event, highlighting the importance of correctly attributing the corresponding flavors when aiming to anticipate the likelihood of precipitation extremes. Straightforward upcoming extensions of the present work will address the imprints of ENSO types and flavors on extremes at different time scales that can be found in other relevant climate variables such as air temperature or more complex drought indices, as well as an assessment of the representation of the empirically found statistical relationships in contemporary climate models operated in hindcast as well as RCP scenario modes. M. Wiedermann, A. Radebach, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner: A climate network-based index to discriminate different types of El Nino and La Nina. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 069119 (2016) J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner, J.F. Siegmund, R.V. Donner: Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series - On the role of extreme flood events as possible drivers of epidemics. European Physical Journal - Special Topics, 225(3), 471-487 (2016)

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

Language Geography from Microblogging Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mocanu, Delia; Baronchelli, Andrea; Perra, Nicola; Gonçalves, Bruno; Vespignani, Alessandro

2013-03-01

Microblogging platforms have now become major open source indicators for complex social interactions. With the advent of smartphones, the everincreasing mobile Internet traffic gives us the unprecedented opportunity to complement studies of complex social phenomena with real-time location information. In this work, we show that the data nowadays accessible allows for detailed studies at different scales, ranging from country-level aggregate analysis to the analysis of linguistic communities withing specific neighborhoods. The high resolution and coverage of this data permits us to investigate such issues as the linguistic homogeneity of different countries, touristic seasonal patterns within countries, and the geographical distribution of different languages in bilingual regions. This work highlights the potentialities of geolocalized studies of open data sources that can provide an extremely detailed picture of the language geography.

Diurnal and nocturnal skin temperature regulation in chronic complex regional pain syndrome.

PubMed

Schilder, Johanna C M; Niehof, Sjoerd P; Marinus, Johan; van Hilten, Jacobus J

2015-03-01

Skin temperature changes due to vasomotor disturbances are important features of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). Because this phenomenon has only been studied under controlled conditions, information on daily circadian variability is lacking. Also, studies in chronic CRPS patients with abnormal posturing, in which coldness of the affected extremity is more common, do not exist. We examined the response to external heating as well as circadian temperature changes over several days in the affected legs of 14 chronic CRPS patients with abnormal posturing and 17 controls. Skin temperatures were recorded hourly for 14 days using wireless sensors. Although the patients' affected extremities were significantly colder before external heating, the vasodilatory response was similar in the 2 groups. Additionally, median skin temperature differences between both legs and their variability was larger in patients than in controls during the day, but not during the night. These findings indicate that the mechanisms underlying impaired skin circulation in CRPS during daytime are reversible under certain circumstances. The large variation in skin temperature differences during the day questions the validity of using a single measurement in the diagnosis of CRPS, and our results indicate that only temperature differences >1.0 °C should be considered to reflect vasomotor disturbances. This article shows that chronic CRPS patients have a normal vasodilatory response to external heating and that skin temperature differences between the affected and unaffected lower limbs, which were highly variable during daytime, disappeared during sleep. This indicates that part of the vasomotor regulation in these patients is still functional. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis With Policy Implications.

PubMed

Harris, Catherine R; Osterberg, E Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W; McAninch, Jack W; McCulloch, Charles E; Breyer, Benjamin N

2016-08-01

To determine which factors are associated with higher costs of urethroplasty procedure and whether these factors have been increasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001-2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP cost-to-charge ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (OR). A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated cost was $7321 ($5677-$10,000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs [OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-2.04, P = .02] compared with patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs (OR 3.2, CI 2.14-4.75, P <.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.2-2.64, P = .005). Variations in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payor type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications, and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National Variation in Urethroplasty Cost and Predictors of Extreme Cost: A Cost Analysis with Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Harris, Catherine R.; Osterberg, E. Charles; Sanford, Thomas; Alwaal, Amjad; Gaither, Thomas W.; McAninch, Jack W.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Breyer, Benjamin N.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine which factors are associated with higher urethroplasty procedural costs and whether they have been increasing or decreasing over time. Identification of determinants of extreme costs may help reduce cost while maintaining quality. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis using the 2001–2010 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project - Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The HCUP-NIS captures hospital charges which we converted to cost using the HCUP Cost-to-Charge Ratio. Log cost linear regression with sensitivity analysis was used to determine variables associated with increased costs. Extreme cost was defined as the top 20th percentile of expenditure, analyzed with logistic regression and expressed as Odds Ratios (OR). Results A total of 2298 urethroplasties were recorded in NIS over the study period. The median (interquartile range) calculated costs was $7321 ($5677–$10000). Patients with multiple comorbid conditions were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.56 95% CI 1.19–2.04, p=0.02) compared to patients with no comorbid disease. Inpatient complications raised the odds of extreme costs OR 3.2 CI 2.14–4.75, p<0.001). Graft urethroplasties were associated with extreme costs (OR 1.78 95% CI 1.2–2.64, p=0.005). Variation in patient age, race, hospital region, bed size, teaching status, payer type, and volume of urethroplasty cases were not associated with extremes of cost. Conclusion Cost variation for perioperative inpatient urethroplasty procedures is dependent on preoperative patient comorbidities, postoperative complications and surgical complexity related to graft usage. Procedural cost and cost variation are critical for understanding which aspects of care have the greatest impact on cost. PMID:27107626

Global predictability of temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

OPTIMIZING THROUGH CO-EVOLUTIONARY AVALANCHES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. BOETTCHER; A. PERCUS

2000-08-01

We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by ''self-organized critically,'' a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in many physical systems. In contrast to Genetic Algorithms which operate on an entire ''gene-pool'' of possible solutions, extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations, called ''avalanches,'' ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. Drawing upon models used to simulate far-from-equilibrium dynamics, extremal optimization complements approximation methods inspired by equilibrium statistical physics, such as simulated annealing. With only onemore » adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions. Those phase transitions are found in the parameter space of most optimization problems, and have recently been conjectured to be the origin of some of the hardest instances in computational complexity. We will demonstrate how extremal optimization can be implemented for a variety of combinatorial optimization problems. We believe that extremal optimization will be a useful tool in the investigation of phase transitions in combinatorial optimization problems, hence valuable in elucidating the origin of computational complexity.« less

A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Renard, Benjamin; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Lang, Michel

2015-11-01

The global and regional influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on extreme precipitation was analyzed using a global database comprising over 7000 high quality observation sites. To better quantify possible changes in relatively rare design-relevant precipitation quantiles (e.g. the 1 in 10 year event), a Bayesian regional extreme value model was used, which employed the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of ENSO - as a covariate. Regions found to be influenced by ENSO include parts of North and South America, southern and eastern Asia, South Africa, Australia and Europe. The season experiencing the greatest ENSO effect varies regionally, but in most of the ENSO-affected regions the strongest effect happens in boreal winter, during which time the 10-year precipitation for |SOI| = 20 (corresponding to either a strong El Niño or La Niña episode) can be up to 50% higher or lower than for SOI = 0 (a neutral phase). Importantly, the effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation is asymmetric, with most parts of the world experiencing a significant effect only for a single ENSO phase. This finding has important implications on the current understanding of how ENSO influences extreme precipitation, and will enable a more rigorous theoretical foundation for providing quantitative extreme precipitation intensity predictions at seasonal timescales. We anticipate that incorporating asymmetric impacts of ENSO on extreme precipitation will help lead to better-informed climate-adaptive design of flood-sensitive infrastructure.

Protein painting reveals solvent-excluded drug targets hidden within native protein–protein interfaces

PubMed Central

Luchini, Alessandra; Espina, Virginia; Liotta, Lance A.

2014-01-01

Identifying the contact regions between a protein and its binding partners is essential for creating therapies that block the interaction. Unfortunately, such contact regions are extremely difficult to characterize because they are hidden inside the binding interface. Here we introduce protein painting as a new tool that employs small molecules as molecular paints to tightly coat the surface of protein–protein complexes. The molecular paints, which block trypsin cleavage sites, are excluded from the binding interface. Following mass spectrometry, only peptides hidden in the interface emerge as positive hits, revealing the functional contact regions that are drug targets. We use protein painting to discover contact regions between the three-way interaction of IL1β ligand, the receptor IL1RI and the accessory protein IL1RAcP. We then use this information to create peptides and monoclonal antibodies that block the interaction and abolish IL1β cell signalling. The technology is broadly applicable to discover protein interaction drug targets. PMID:25048602

The IκBα/NF-κB complex has two hot spots, one at either end of the interface

PubMed Central

Bergqvist, Simon; Ghosh, Gourisankar; Komives, Elizabeth A.

2008-01-01

IκBα binds to and inhibits the transcriptional activity of NF-κB family members via its ankyrin repeat (AR) domain. The binding affinity of IκBα with NF-κB(p50/p65) heterodimers and NF-κB(p65/65) homodimers is in the picomolar range, and in the cell, this results in long half-lives of the complexes. Direct binding experiments have been performed using surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) on a series of truncations and mutations in order to understand what regions of the interface are most important for the tight binding affinity of this complex. We previously showed that interactions between residues 305 and 321 of NF-κB(p65) with the first AR of IκBα are critical for the binding energy. Interactions in this region are responsible for more than 7 kcal/mol of the binding energy. Here we show equally drastic consequences for the binding energy occur upon truncation of even a few residues at the C terminus of IκBα. Thus, the interface actually has two hot spots, one at either end of the elongated and large surface of interaction. These results suggest a “squeeze” mechanism that leads to the extremely high affinity of the IκBα•NF-κB complex through stabilization of the ankyrin repeat domain. PMID:18824506

A review of droughts in the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, I.; Maskey, S.; Mussá, F. E. F.; Trambauer, P.

2014-03-01

This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013 as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 yr. The extreme droughts of 1972-1973, 1983-1984 and 1991-1992 were continental in nature and stand unique in the available records. Additionally, many severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the recent past such as the 1999-2002 drought in Northwest Africa, 1970s and 1980s droughts in West Africa (Sahel), 2010-2011 drought in East Africa (Horn of Africa) and 2001-2003 drought in Southern and Southeast Africa, to name a few. The available (though limited) evidence before the 20th century confirms the occurrence of several extreme and multi-year droughts during each century, with the most prolonged and intense droughts that occurred in Sahel and Equatorial East Africa regions. Complex and highly variant nature of many physical mechanisms such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and land-atmosphere feedback adds to the daunting challenge of drought monitoring and forecasting. The future predictions of droughts based on global climate models indicate increased droughts and aridity at the continental scale but large differences exist due to model limitations and complexity of the processes especially for Sahel and North Africa regions. However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African continent is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in future.

Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

2015-02-01

In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

[A method for reproducing amnesia in mice by the complex extremal exposure].

PubMed

Iasnetsov, V V; Provornova, N A

2003-01-01

It is suggested to reproduce a retrograde amnesia in mice by means of a complex extremal action: emaciating swim in cold water with simultaneous wheel rotation. It was found that nootropes such as pyracetam, mexidol, semax, nooglutil, acephen, and noopept fully or completely prevent from the amnesia development.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

2012-04-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

2012-12-01

Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall, snowfall and snowmelt, cloud and surface hydrology are forthcoming and could be found in www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl.he ensemble-mean, annual-mean surface air temperature change and its uncertainty from the available CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 (left) and RCP2.6 (right) emissions scenarios, unit: °C.

The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which yield extreme precipitation events in different regions of California are studied to categorize the most impactful ARs in each region.

Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok

2017-12-01

The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought propagation as well as other hydroclimatic extreme events. Although the propagation of droughts is investigated using the network approach, however process (physics) based approaches is essential to further understand the dynamics of hydroclimatic extreme events.

Early Reconstructions of Complex Lower Extremity Battlefield Soft Tissue Wounds

PubMed Central

Ebrahimi, Ali; Nejadsarvari, Nasrin; Ebrahimi, Azin; Rasouli, Hamid Reza

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Severe lower extremity trauma as a devastating combat related injury is on the rise and this presents reconstructive surgeons with significant challenges to reach optimal cosmetic and functional outcomes. This study assessed early reconstructions of complex lower extremity battlefield soft tissue wounds. METHODS This was a prospective case series study of battled field injured patients which was done in the Department of Plastic Surgery, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences hospitals, Tehran, Iran between 2013-2015. In this survey, 73 patients were operated for reconstruction of lower extremity soft tissue defects due to battlefield injuries RESULTS Seventy-three patients (65 men, 8 womens) ranging from 21-48 years old (mean: 35 years) were enrolled. Our study showed that early debridement and bone stabilization and later coverage of complex battlefields soft tissue wounds with suitable flaps and grafts of lower extremity were effective method for difficult wounds managements with less amputation and infections. CONCLUSION Serial debridement and bone stabilization before early soft tissue reconstruction according to reconstructive ladder were shown to be essential steps. PMID:29218283

Statistical robustness of machine-learning estimates for characterizing a groundwater-surface water system, Southland, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, M. J.; Daughney, C.

2016-12-01

The development of a successful surface-groundwater management strategy depends on the quality of data provided for analysis. This study evaluates the statistical robustness when using a modified self-organizing map (MSOM) technique to estimate missing values for three hypersurface models: synoptic groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry, time-series of groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry, and mixed-survey (combination of groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry and lithologies) hydrostratigraphic unit data. These models of increasing complexity are developed and validated based on observations from the Southland region of New Zealand. In each case, the estimation method is sufficiently robust to cope with groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry vagaries due to sample size and extreme data insufficiency, even when >80% of the data are missing. The estimation of surface water hydrochemistry time series values enabled the evaluation of seasonal variation, and the imputation of lithologies facilitated the evaluation of hydrostratigraphic controls on groundwater-surface water interaction. The robust statistical results for groundwater-surface water models of increasing data complexity provide justification to apply the MSOM technique in other regions of New Zealand and abroad.

Primary adenocarcinoma of the thymus: an immunohistochemical and molecular study with review of the literature.

PubMed

Maghbool, Maryam; Ramzi, Mani; Nagel, Inga; Bejarano, Pablo; Siebert, Reiner; Saeedzadeh, Abolfazl; Daneshbod, Yahya

2013-05-31

Primary adenocarcinoma of thymus is extremely rare. This is a case of primary adenocarcinoma with intestinal differentiation and focal mucin production in the thymus. Thymic cyst was associated with this tumor. Intestinal differentiation was confirmed by immunohistochemical stain with positivity for CDX-2, CK20, villin, MOC31 and focal positivity of CK7. Array comperative genomic hybridization (CGH) analysis showed a complex pattern of chromosomal imbalances including homozygous deletion at the HLA locus in chromosomal region 6p21.32. This rare tumor shows a similar genetic aberration with other studied thymic epithelial tumors.

Therapeutic potential of stellate ganglion block in orofacial pain: a mini review.

PubMed

Jeon, Younghoon

2016-09-01

Orofacial pain is a common complaint of patients that causes distress and compromises the quality of life. It has many etiologies including trauma, interventional procedures, nerve injury, varicella-zoster (shingles), tumor, and vascular and idiopathic factors. It has been demonstrated that the sympathetic nervous system is usually involved in various orofacial pain disorders such as postherpetic neuralgia, complex regional pain syndromes, and atypical facial pain. The stellate sympathetic ganglion innervates the head, neck, and upper extremity. In this review article, the effect of stellate ganglion block and its mechanism of action in orofacial pain disorders are discussed.

Attributing extreme precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander

2016-04-01

Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation extremes in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation extreme in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea warming, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the extremeness of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be infeasible under the global modelling approach, reveal that the intensity of the Krymsk event responds highly nonlinearly to Black Sea warming and suggests a role for regional SST thresholds in more intense coastal convective extremes.

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2015-01-01

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

Evolution, the loss of diversity and the role of trade-offs.

PubMed

Best, Alex; Bowers, Roger; White, Andy

2015-06-01

We investigate how the loss of previously evolved diversity in host resistance to disease is dependent on the complexity of the underlying evolutionary trade-off. Working within the adaptive dynamics framework, using graphical tools (pairwise invasion plots, PIPs; trait evolution plots, TEPs) and algebraic analysis we consider polynomial trade-offs of increasing degree. Our focus is on the evolutionary trajectory of the dimorphic population after it has been attracted to an evolutionary branching point. We show that for sufficiently complex trade-offs (here, polynomials of degree three or higher) the resulting invasion boundaries can form closed 'oval' areas of invadability and strategy coexistence. If no attracting singular strategies exist within this region, then the population is destined to evolve outside of the region of coexistence, resulting in the loss of one strain. In particular, the loss of diversity in this model always occurs in such a way that the remaining strain is not attracted back to the branching point but to an extreme of the trade-off, meaning the diversity is lost forever. We also show similar results for a non-polynomial but complex trade-off, and for a different eco-evolutionary model. Our work further highlights the importance of trade-offs to evolutionary behaviour. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geomagnetic Navigation of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Based on Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm.

PubMed

Li, Hong; Liu, Mingyong; Zhang, Feihu

2017-01-01

This paper presents a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm of bio-inspired geomagnetic navigation for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). Inspired by the biological navigation behavior, the solution was proposed without using a priori information, simply by magnetotaxis searching. However, the existence of the geomagnetic anomalies has significant influence on the geomagnetic navigation system, which often disrupts the distribution of the geomagnetic field. An extreme value region may easily appear in abnormal regions, which makes AUV lost in the navigation phase. This paper proposes an improved bio-inspired algorithm with behavior constraints, for sake of making AUV escape from the abnormal region. First, the navigation problem is considered as the optimization problem. Second, the environmental monitoring operator is introduced, to determine whether the algorithm falls into the geomagnetic anomaly region. Then, the behavior constraint operator is employed to get out of the abnormal region. Finally, the termination condition is triggered. Compared to the state-of- the-art, the proposed approach effectively overcomes the disturbance of the geomagnetic abnormal. The simulation result demonstrates the reliability and feasibility of the proposed approach in complex environments.

Geomagnetic Navigation of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Based on Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm

PubMed Central

Li, Hong; Liu, Mingyong; Zhang, Feihu

2017-01-01

This paper presents a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm of bio-inspired geomagnetic navigation for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). Inspired by the biological navigation behavior, the solution was proposed without using a priori information, simply by magnetotaxis searching. However, the existence of the geomagnetic anomalies has significant influence on the geomagnetic navigation system, which often disrupts the distribution of the geomagnetic field. An extreme value region may easily appear in abnormal regions, which makes AUV lost in the navigation phase. This paper proposes an improved bio-inspired algorithm with behavior constraints, for sake of making AUV escape from the abnormal region. First, the navigation problem is considered as the optimization problem. Second, the environmental monitoring operator is introduced, to determine whether the algorithm falls into the geomagnetic anomaly region. Then, the behavior constraint operator is employed to get out of the abnormal region. Finally, the termination condition is triggered. Compared to the state-of- the-art, the proposed approach effectively overcomes the disturbance of the geomagnetic abnormal. The simulation result demonstrates the reliability and feasibility of the proposed approach in complex environments. PMID:28747884

Surgical Management of Complex Lower-Extremity Trauma With a Long Hindfoot Fusion Nail: A Case Report.

PubMed

Jain, Nickul S; Lopez, Gregory D; Bederman, S Samuel; Wirth, Garrett A; Scolaro, John A

2016-08-01

High-energy injuries can result in complete or partial loss of the talus. Ipsilateral fractures to the lower limb increase the complexity of surgical management, and treatment is guided by previous case reports of similar injuries. A case of complex lower-extremity trauma with extruded and missing talar body and ipsilateral type IIIB open tibia fracture is presented. Surgical limb reconstruction and salvage was performed successfully with a single orthopaedic implant in a manner not described previously in the literature. The purpose of this case report is to present the novel use of a single orthopaedic implant for treatment of a complex, open traumatic injury. Previous case reports in the literature have described the management of complete or partial talar loss. We describe the novel use of a long hindfoot fusion nail and staged bone grafting to achieve tibiocalcaneal arthrodesis for the treatment of complex lower-extremity trauma. Therapeutic, Level IV: Case study. © 2015 The Author(s).

Minimum important differences for the patient-specific functional scale, 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale.

PubMed

Abbott, J Haxby; Schmitt, John

2014-08-01

Multicenter, prospective, longitudinal cohort study. To investigate the minimum important difference (MID) of the Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) across 3 levels of patient-perceived global rating of change in a clinical setting. The MID varies depending on the external anchor defining patient-perceived "importance." The MID for the PSFS has not been established across all body regions. One thousand seven hundred eight consecutive patients with musculoskeletal disorders were recruited from 5 physical therapy clinics. The PSFS, NPRS, and 4 region-specific outcome measures-the Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale-were assessed at the initial and final physical therapy visits. Global rating of change was assessed at the final visit. MID was calculated for the PSFS and NPRS (overall and for each body region), and for each region-specific outcome measure, across 3 levels of change defined by the global rating of change (small, medium, large change) using receiver operating characteristic curve methodology. The MID for the PSFS (on a scale from 0 to 10) ranged from 1.3 (small change) to 2.3 (medium change) to 2.7 (large change), and was relatively stable across body regions. MIDs for the NPRS (-1.5 to -3.5), Oswestry Disability Index (-12), Neck Disability Index (-14), Upper Extremity Functional Index (6 to 11), and Lower Extremity Functional Scale (9 to 16) are also reported. We reported the MID for small, medium, and large patient-perceived change on the PSFS, NPRS, Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale for use in clinical practice and research.

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are significantly correlated with the frequency of extreme westerly airflows.

Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

2005-12-01

Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

Stellar Content and Star Formation in Young Clusters Influenced by Massive Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jose, J.

2014-09-01

Star Formation (SF) in extreme environment is always challenging and can be significantly different from that in quiet environments. This study presents the comprehensive multi-wavelength (optical, NIR, MIR and radio) observational analysis of three Galactic starforming regions associated with H II regions/young clusters and located at > 2 kpc, which are found to be evolving under the influence of massive stars within their vicinity. The candidate massive stars, young stellar objects, their mass, age, age spread, the form of K-band Luminosity Function (KLF), Initial Mass Function (IMF) and a possible formation history of each region are studied. The major results on Sh2-252, an extended H II region that appears to be undergoing multiple episodes of SF, are highlighted. Our analysis shows that all the regions are undergoing complex SF activity and the new generation of stars in each region seem to be an outcome of the influence by the presence of massive stars within them. SF process in these regions are likely to be multi-fold and the results suggest that multiple modes of triggering mechanism and hierarchial modes of SF are a common phenomena within young clusters.

Fevers and Chills: Separating thermal and synchrotron components in SNR spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedor, Emily Elizabeth; Martina-Hood, Hyourin; Stage, Michael D.

2018-06-01

Spatially-resolved spectroscopy is an extremely powerful tool in X-ray analysis of extended sources, but can be computationally difficult if a source exhibits complex morphology. For example, high-resolution Chandra data of bright Galactic supernova remnants (Cas A, Tycho, etc.) allow extractions of high-quality spectra from tens to hundreds of thousands of regions, providing a rich laboratory for localizing emission from processes such as thermal line emission, bremsstrahlung, and synchrotron. This soft-band analysis informs our understanding of the typically nonthermal hard X-ray emission observed with other lower-resolution instruments. The analysis is complicated by both projection effects and the presence of multiple emission mechanisms in some regions. In particular, identifying regions with significant nonthermal emission is critical to understanding acceleration processes in remnants. Fitting tens of thousands of regions with complex, multi-component models can be time-consuming and involve so many free parameters that little constraint can be placed on the values. Previous work by Stage & Allen ('06, '07, '11) on Cas A used a technique to identify regions dominated by the highest-cutoff synchrotron emission by fitting with a simple thermal emission model and identifying regions with anomalously high apparent temperatures (caused by presence of the high-energy tail of the synchrotron emission component). Here, we present a similar technique. We verify the previous approach and, more importantly, expand it to include a method to identify regions containing strong lower-cutoff synchrotron radiation. Such regions might be associated with the reverse-shock of a supernova. Identification of a nonthermal electron population in the interior of an SNR would have significant implications for the energy balance and emission mechanisms producing the high-energy (> 10 keV) spectrum.

Atmospheric circulation types and extreme areal precipitation in southern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Homann, Markus; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph

2017-04-01

Gridded daily rainfall data for southern central Europe are aggregated to regions of similar precipitation variability by means of S-mode principal component analyses separately for the meteorological seasons. Atmospheric circulation types (CTs) are derived by a particular clustering technique including large-scale fields of SLP, vertical wind and relative humidity at the 700 hPa level as well as the regional rainfall time series. Multiple regression models with monthly CT frequencies as predictors are derived for monthly frequencies and amounts of regional precipitation extremes (beyond the 95 % percentile). Using predictor output from different global climate models (ECHAM6, ECHAM5, EC-EARTH) for different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B) and two projection periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) leads to assessments of future changes in regional precipitation extremes. Most distinctive changes are indicated for the summer season with mainly increasing extremes for the earlier period and widespread decreasing extremes towards the end of the 21st century, mostly for the strong scenario. Considerable uncertainties arise from the predictor use of different global climate models, especially during the winter and spring seasons.

"Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) in Sexually Abused Children: An Exloratory Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Darlene Kordich

1999-01-01

Compares three groups of young sexually abused children on seven "Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) indices. As cumulative number of types of trauma increased, the number of CP/DES symptoms rose. Results suggest that CP/DES also characterizes sexually abused children, especially those who have…

Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

PubMed Central

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather. PMID:28074909

Quantitative methods for stochastic high frequency spatio-temporal and non-linear analysis: Assessing health effects of exposure to extreme ambient temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liss, Alexander

Extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold spells, cause substantial excess mortality and morbidity in the vulnerable elderly population, and cost billions of dollars. The accurate and reliable assessment of adverse effects of extreme weather events on human health is crucial for environmental scientists, economists, and public health officials to ensure proper protection of vulnerable populations and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, the methodology for the analysis of large national databases is yet to be developed. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of extreme weather on the elderly population of the Conterminous US (ConUS) with respect to seasonality in temperature in different climatic regions by utilizing heterogeneous high frequency and spatio-temporal resolution data. To achieve these goals the author: 1) incorporated dissimilar stochastic high frequency big data streams and distinct data types into the integrated data base for use in analytical and decision support frameworks; 2) created an automated climate regionalization system based on remote sensing and machine learning to define climate regions for the Conterminous US; 3) systematically surveyed the current state of the art and identified existing gaps in the scientific knowledge; 4) assessed the dose-response relationship of exposure to temperature extremes on human health in relatively homogeneous climate regions using different statistical models, such as parametric and non-parametric, contemporaneous and asynchronous, applied to the same data; 5) assessed seasonal peak timing and synchronization delay of the exposure and the disease within the framework of contemporaneous high frequency harmonic time series analysis and modification of the effect by the regional climate; 6) modeled using hyperbolic functional form non-linear properties of the effect of exposure to extreme temperature on human health. The proposed climate regionalization method algorithmically forms eight climatically homogeneous regions for Conterminous US from satellite Remote Sensing inputs. The relative risk of hospitalizations due to extreme ambient temperature varied across climatic regions. Difference in regional hospitalization rates suggests presence of an adaptation effect to a prevailing climate. In various climatic regions the hospitalizations peaked earlier than the peak of exposure. This suggests disproportionally high impact of extreme weather events, such as cold spells or heat waves when they occur early in the season. These findings provide an insight into the use of high frequency disjoint data sets for the assessment of the magnitude, timing, synchronization and non-linear properties of adverse health consequences due to exposure to extreme weather events to the elderly in defined climatic regions. These findings assist in the creation of decision support frameworks targeting preventions and adaptation strategies such as improving infrastructure, providing energy assistance, education and early warning notifications for the vulnerable population. This dissertation offers a number of methodological innovations for the assessment of the high frequency spatio-temporal and non-linear impacts of extreme weather events on human health. These innovations help to ensure an improved protection of the elderly population, aid policy makers in the development of efficient disaster prevention strategies, and facilitate more efficient allocation of scarce resources.

Design and Mechanical Stability Analysis of the Interaction Region for the Inverse Compton Scattering Gamma-Ray Source Using Finite Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khizhanok, Andrei

Development of a compact source of high-spectral brilliance and high impulse frequency gamma rays has been in scope of Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory for quite some time. Main goal of the project is to develop a setup to support gamma rays detection test and gamma ray spectroscopy. Potential applications include but not limited to nuclear astrophysics, nuclear medicine, oncology ('gamma knife'). Present work covers multiple interconnected stages of development of the interaction region to ensure high levels of structural strength and vibrational resistance. Inverse Compton scattering is a complex phenomenon, in which charged particle transfers a part of its energy to a photon. It requires extreme precision as the interaction point is estimated to be 20 microm. The slightest deflection of the mirrors will reduce effectiveness of conversion by orders of magnitude. For acceptable conversion efficiency laser cavity also must have >1000 finesse value, which requires a trade-off between size, mechanical stability, complexity, and price of the setup. This work focuses on advantages and weak points of different designs of interaction regions as well as in-depth description of analyses performed. This includes laser cavity amplification and finesse estimates, natural frequency mapping, harmonic analysis. Structural analysis is required as interaction must occur under high vacuum conditions.

Do Atmospheric Rivers explain the extreme precipitation events over East Asia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Nayak, S.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are now of serious concern due to their damaging societal impacts over last few decades. Thus, climate indices are widely used to identify and quantify variability and changes in particular aspects of the climate system, especially when considering extremes. In our study, we focus on few climate indices of annual precipitation extremes for the period 1979-2013 over East Asia to discuss some straightforward information and interpretation of certain aspects of extreme precipitation events that occur over the region. To do so, we first discuss different percentiles of precipitation and maximum length of wet spell with different thresholds from a regional climate model (NRAMS) simulation at 20km. Results indicate that the 99 percentile of precipitation events correspond to about 80mm/d over few regions of East Asia during 1979-2013 and maximum length of wet spell with minimum 20mm precipitation corresponds to about 10days (Figure 1). We then linked the extreme precipitation events with the intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The ARs are identified by computing the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) between 1000hpa and 300hpa with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s and 2000 km minimum long. With this threshold and condition (set by previous research), our results indicate that some extreme propitiation events are associated with some ARs over East Asia, while some events are not associated with any ARs. Similarly, some ARs are associated with some extreme precipitation events, while some ARs are not associated with any events. Since the ARs are sensitive to the threshold and condition depending on region, so we will analyze the characteristics of ARs (frequency, duration, and annual variability) with different thresholds and discuss their relationship with extreme precipitation events over East Asia.

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Yongqin David

2018-01-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified. Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading of moisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, T. Y. Y.; Tan, X.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified.Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading ofmoisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

2017-12-01

Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

Molecular basis of cannabinoid CB1 receptor coupling to the G protein heterotrimer Gαiβγ: identification of key CB1 contacts with the C-terminal helix α5 of Gαi.

PubMed

Shim, Joong-Youn; Ahn, Kwang H; Kendall, Debra A

2013-11-08

The cannabinoid (CB1) receptor is a member of the rhodopsin-like G protein-coupled receptor superfamily. The human CB1 receptor, which is among the most expressed receptors in the brain, has been implicated in several disease states, including drug addiction, anxiety, depression, obesity, and chronic pain. Different classes of CB1 agonists evoke signaling pathways through the activation of specific subtypes of G proteins. The molecular basis of CB1 receptor coupling to its cognate G protein is unknown. As a first step toward understanding CB1 receptor-mediated G protein signaling, we have constructed a ternary complex structural model of the CB1 receptor and Gi heterotrimer (CB1-Gi), guided by the x-ray structure of β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR) in complex with Gs (β2AR-Gs), through 824-ns duration molecular dynamics simulations in a fully hydrated 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine bilayer environment. We identified a group of residues at the juxtamembrane regions of the intracellular loops 2 and 3 (IC2 and IC3) of the CB1 receptor, including Ile-218(3.54), Tyr-224(IC2), Asp-338(6.30), Arg-340(6.32), Leu-341(6.33), and Thr-344(6.36), as potential key contacts with the extreme C-terminal helix α5 of Gαi. Ala mutations of these residues at the receptor-Gi interface resulted in little G protein coupling activity, consistent with the present model of the CB1-Gi complex, which suggests tight interactions between CB1 and the extreme C-terminal helix α5 of Gαi. The model also suggests that unique conformational changes in the extreme C-terminal helix α5 of Gα play a crucial role in the receptor-mediated G protein activation.

Intraoperative fluorescence angiography: a review of applications and outcomes in war-related trauma.

PubMed

Green, J Marshall; Sabino, Jennifer; Fleming, Mark; Valerio, Ian

2015-03-01

In the recent Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, survival rates from complex battlefield injuries have continued to improve. The resulting war-related wounds are challenging, with confounding issues making assessment of tissue perfusion subjective and variable. This review discusses the utility of intraoperative fluorescence angiography, and its usefulness as an objective tool to evaluate the perfusion of tissues in the face of complex war-related injuries. A retrospective review of all war-related traumatic and reconstructive cases employing intraoperative indocyanine green laser angiography (ICGLA) was performed. Data analyzed included indication for use, procedure success/failure rates, modifications performed, and perfusion-related complications. Anatomical regions assessed were extremity, head and neck, truncal, and intra-abdominal viscera. The endpoint of specific interest involved the decision for additional debridement of poorly perfused tissue, as based on the ICGLA findings. Over a 3-year period, this study examined 123 extremity soft tissue flaps, 41 extremity injuries including amputation and/or amputation revision cases, 13 craniofacial flaps, and 9 truncal/abdomen/gastrointestinal cases in which ICGLA was utilized to assess tissue perfusion and viability. A total of 35 (18.8%) of cases employing ICGLA required intraoperative modifications to address perfusion-related issues. Intraoperative fluorescent angiography is an objective, useful tool to assess various war-related traumatic injuries. This study expands on prior cited indications for ICGLA to include (1) guiding debridement in heavily contaminated wounds, (2) providing improved assessment of avulsion soft tissue injuries, (3) allowing for rapid detection of vascular and/or microvascular compromise in soft tissue and osseous flap reconstructions, (4) reducing and preventing perfusion-related complications in trauma, amputation closures, and reconstruction procedures, (5) contributing to better outcomes in certain complex orthopedic and composite tissue injuries, and (6) enabling improved postoperative wound and reconstruction assessment in those cases of perfusion-related issues that arise within a delayed setting. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Bias-correction of PERSIANN-CDR Extreme Precipitation Estimates Over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridzad, M.; Yang, T.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Ground-based precipitation measurements can be sparse or even nonexistent over remote regions which make it difficult for extreme event analysis. PERSIANN-CDR (CDR), with 30+ years of daily rainfall information, provides an opportunity to study precipitation for regions where ground measurements are limited. In this study, the use of CDR annual extreme precipitation for frequency analysis of extreme events over limited/ungauged basins is explored. The adjustment of CDR is implemented in two steps: (1) Calculated CDR bias correction factor at limited gauge locations based on the linear regression analysis of gauge and CDR annual maxima precipitation; and (2) Extend the bias correction factor to the locations where gauges are not available. The correction factors are estimated at gauge sites over various catchments, elevation zones, and climate regions and the results were generalized to ungauged sites based on regional and climatic similarity. Case studies were conducted on 20 basins with diverse climate and altitudes in the Eastern and Western US. Cross-validation reveals that the bias correction factors estimated on limited calibration data can be extended to regions with similar characteristics. The adjusted CDR estimates also outperform gauge interpolation on validation sites consistently. It is suggested that the CDR with bias adjustment has a potential for study frequency analysis of extreme events, especially for regions with limited gauge observations.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

Magnetic storms and solar flares: can be analysed within similar mathematical framework with other extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, Georgios; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

2015-04-01

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy characterizes the generation of a single magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake (in terms of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals) , epileptic seizure, and economic crisis. The analysis reveals that all the above mentioned different extreme events can be analyzed within similar mathematical framework. More precisely, we show that the populations of magnitudes of fluctuations included in all the above mentioned pulse-like-type time series follow the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar nonextensive q-parameter values. Moreover, based on a multidisciplinary statistical analysis we show that the extreme events are characterized by crucial common symptoms, namely: (i) high organization, high compressibility, low complexity, high information content; (ii) strong persistency; and (iii) existence of clear preferred direction of emerged activities. These symptoms clearly discriminate the appearance of the extreme events under study from the corresponding background noise.

Evaluating the Large-Scale Environment of Extreme Events Using Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Eichmann, A.

2014-12-01

Extreme conditions and events have always been a long standing concern in weather forecasting and national security. While some evidence indicates extreme weather will increase in global change scenarios, extremes are often related to the large scale atmospheric circulation, but also occurring infrequently. Reanalyses assimilate substantial amounts of weather data and a primary strength of reanalysis data is the representation of the large-scale atmospheric environment. In this effort, we link the occurrences of extreme events or climate indicators to the underlying regional and global weather patterns. Now, with greater than 3o years of data, reanalyses can include multiple cases of extreme events, and thereby identify commonality among the weather to better characterize the large-scale to global environment linked to the indicator or extreme event. Since these features are certainly regionally dependent, and also, the indicators of climate are continually being developed, we outline various methods to analyze the reanalysis data and the development of tools to support regional evaluation of the data. Here, we provide some examples of both individual case studies and composite studies of similar events. For example, we will compare the large scale environment for Northeastern US extreme precipitation with that of highest mean precipitation seasons. Likewise, southerly winds can shown to be a major contributor to very warm days in the Northeast winter. While most of our development has involved NASA's MERRA reanalysis, we are also looking forward to MERRA-2 which includes several new features that greatly improve the representation of weather and climate, especially for the regions and sectors involved in the National Climate Assessment.

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Complex regional pain syndrome: evidence for warm and cold subtypes in a large prospective clinical sample.

PubMed

Bruehl, Stephen; Maihöfner, Christian; Stanton-Hicks, Michael; Perez, Roberto S G M; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Brunner, Florian; Birklein, Frank; Schlereth, Tanja; Mackey, Sean; Mailis-Gagnon, Angela; Livshitz, Anatoly; Harden, R Norman

2016-08-01

Limited research suggests that there may be Warm complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) and Cold CRPS subtypes, with inflammatory mechanisms contributing most strongly to the former. This study for the first time used an unbiased statistical pattern recognition technique to evaluate whether distinct Warm vs Cold CRPS subtypes can be discerned in the clinical population. An international, multisite study was conducted using standardized procedures to evaluate signs and symptoms in 152 patients with clinical CRPS at baseline, with 3-month follow-up evaluations in 112 of these patients. Two-step cluster analysis using automated cluster selection identified a 2-cluster solution as optimal. Results revealed a Warm CRPS patient cluster characterized by a warm, red, edematous, and sweaty extremity and a Cold CRPS patient cluster characterized by a cold, blue, and less edematous extremity. Median pain duration was significantly (P < 0.001) shorter in the Warm CRPS (4.7 months) than in the Cold CRPS subtype (20 months), with pain intensity comparable. A derived total inflammatory score was significantly (P < 0.001) elevated in the Warm CRPS group (compared with Cold CRPS) at baseline but diminished significantly (P < 0.001) over the follow-up period, whereas this score did not diminish in the Cold CRPS group (time × subtype interaction: P < 0.001). Results support the existence of a Warm CRPS subtype common in patients with acute (<6 months) CRPS and a relatively distinct Cold CRPS subtype most common in chronic CRPS. The pattern of clinical features suggests that inflammatory mechanisms contribute most prominently to the Warm CRPS subtype but that these mechanisms diminish substantially during the first year postinjury.

Applying complex networks to evaluate precipitation patterns over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between the wet- and the dry-season, which are accompanied by specific synoptic events like changes in the location of the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) and the establishment of the South American Convergence Zone (SACZ). The onset of these events can be related to the presence of typical large-scale precipitation patterns over South America, as previous studies have shown[1,2]. The application of complex network methods to precipitation data recently received increased scientific attention for the special case of extreme events, as it is possible with such methods to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as possible teleconnections of these events[3,4]. In these approaches the correlation between precipitation datasets is calculated by means of Event Synchronization which restricts their applicability to extreme precipitation events. In this work, we propose a method which is able to consider not only extreme precipitation but complete time series. A direct application of standard similarity measures in order to correlate precipitation time series is impossible due to their intricate statistical properties as the large amount of zeros. Therefore, we introduced and evaluated a suitable modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient to construct spatial correlation networks of precipitation. By analyzing the characteristics of spatial correlation networks constructed on the basis of this new measure, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections of correlated areas, and detect central regions for precipitation correlation. By analyzing the change of the network over the year[5], we are also able to determine local and global changes in precipitation correlation patterns. Additionally, global network characteristics as the network connectivity yield indications for beginning and end of wet- and dry season. In order to identify large-scale synoptic events like the SACZ and SALLJ onset, detecting the changes of correlation over time between certain regions is of significant relevance. [1] Nieto-Ferreira et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2011) [2] Vera et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2006) [3] Quiroga et al. Physical review E (2002) [4] Boers et al. nature communications (2014) [5] Radebach et al. Physical review E (2013)

Actionable Science for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding to Help Avoid Maladaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.

2017-12-01

Rising sea levels increase the frequency of flooding at all levels, from nuisance to extreme, along coastlines across the world. Although recent flooding has increased the saliency of sea level rise (SLR) and the risks it presents to governments and communities, the effect of SLR on coastal hazards is complex and filled with uncertainty that is often uncomfortable for decision-makers. Although it is certain that SLR is occurring and will continue, its rate remains ambiguous. Because extreme flooding is by definition rare, there is also uncertainty in the effect of natural variability on flood frequency. These uncertainties pose methodological obstacles for integrating SLR into flood hazard projections and risk management. A major challenge is how to distill this complexity into information geared towards public sectors to help inform adaptation decision-making. Because policy windows are limited, budgets are tight, and decisions may have long-term consequences, it is especially important that this information accounts for uncertainty to help avoid damage and maladaptation. The U.S. Global Research Program, and others, describe this type of science—data and tools that help decision-makers plan for climate change impacts—as actionable [1]. We produce actionable science to support decision-making for adaptation to coastal impacts, despite uncertainty in projections of SLR and flood frequency. We found that SLR will boost the occurrence of minor rather than severe flooding in some regions of the U.S., while in other regions the reverse is true. For many cities, the current ten-year flood level will become a regular occurrence as the century progresses and by 2100 will occur every few days for some cities. This creates a mismatch with current planning in some cases. For example, a costly storm surge barrier may be built to protect parts of New York City from extreme flood levels but these are not often used because they are expensive to operate and obstructive to navigation and ecological systems. The current 10-yr flood will become a nuisance flood in the future and large episodic protection may not be especially helpful. [1] Beier, Paul, et al. "A How-to Guide for Coproduction of Actionable Science." Conservation Letters (2016).

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Large, Complex Slope Instability: Case study of Downie Slide, British Columbia, Canada. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalenchuk, K. S.; Hutchinson, D.; Diederichs, M. S.

2013-12-01

Downie Slide, one of the world's largest landslides, is a massive, active, composite, extremely slow rockslide located on the west bank of the Revelstoke Reservoir in British Columbia. It is a 1.5 billion m3 rockslide measuring 2400 m along the river valley, 3300m from toe to headscarp and up to 245 m thick. Significant contributions to the field of landslide geomechanics have been made by analyses of spatially and temporally discriminated slope deformations, and how these are controlled by complex geological and geotechnical factors. Downie Slide research demonstrates the importance of delineating massive landslides into morphological regions in order to characterize global slope behaviour and identify localized events, which may or may not influence the overall slope deformation patterns. Massive slope instabilities do not behave as monolithic masses, rather, different landslide zones can display specific landslide processes occurring at variable rates of deformation. The global deformation of Downie Slide is extremely slow moving; however localized regions of the slope incur moderate to high rates of movement. Complex deformation processes and composite failure mechanism are contributed to by topography, non-uniform shear surfaces, heterogeneous rockmass and shear zone strength and stiffness characteristics. Further, from the analysis of temporal changes in landslide behaviour it has been clearly recognized that different regions of the slope respond differently to changing hydrogeological boundary conditions. State-of-the-art methodologies have been developed for numerical simulation of large landslides; these provide important tools for investigating dynamic landslide systems which account for complex three-dimensional geometries, heterogenous shear zone strength parameters, internal shear zones, the interaction of discrete landslide zones and piezometric fluctuations. Numerical models of Downie Slide have been calibrated to reproduce observed slope behaviour, and the calibration process has provided important insight to key factors controlling massive slope mechanics. Through numerical studies it has been shown that the three-dimensional interpretation of basal slip surface geometry and spatial heterogeneity in shear zone stiffness are important factors controlling large-scale slope deformation processes. The role of secondary internal shears and the interaction between landslide morphological zones has also been assessed. Further, numerical simulation of changing groundwater conditions has produced reasonable correlation with field observations. Calibrated models are valuable tools for the forward prediction of landslide dynamics. Calibrated Downie Slide models have been used to investigate how trigger scenarios may accelerate deformations at Downie Slide. The ability to reproduce observed behaviour and forward test hypothesized changes to boundary conditions has valuable application in hazard management of massive landslides. The capacity of decision makers to interpret large amounts of data, respond to rapid changes in a system and understand complex slope dynamics has been enhanced.

Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-03-31

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-01-01

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

Management of patients with multidrug-resistant/extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in Europe: a TBNET consensus statement

PubMed Central

Lange, Christoph; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Alffenaar, Jan-Willem C.; Bothamley, Graham; Caminero, Jose A.; Carvalho, Anna Cristina C.; Chang, Kwok-Chiu; Codecasa, Luigi; Correia, Ana; Crudu, Valeriu; Davies, Peter; Dedicoat, Martin; Drobniewski, Francis; Duarte, Raquel; Ehlers, Cordula; Erkens, Connie; Goletti, Delia; Günther, Gunar; Ibraim, Elmira; Kampmann, Beate; Kuksa, Liga; de Lange, Wiel; van Leth, Frank; van Lunzen, Jan; Matteelli, Alberto; Menzies, Dick; Monedero, Ignacio; Richter, Elvira; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Sandgren, Andreas; Scardigli, Anna; Skrahina, Alena; Tortoli, Enrico; Volchenkov, Grigory; Wagner, Dirk; van der Werf, Marieke J.; Williams, Bhanu; Yew, Wing-Wai; Zellweger, Jean-Pierre; Cirillo, Daniela Maria

2014-01-01

The emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) substantially challenges TB control, especially in the European Region of the World Health Organization, where the highest prevalence of MDR/XDR cases is reported. The current management of patients with MDR/XDR-TB is extremely complex for medical, social and public health systems. The treatment with currently available anti-TB therapies to achieve relapse-free cure is long and undermined by a high frequency of adverse drug events, suboptimal treatment adherence, high costs and low treatment success rates. Availability of optimal management for patients with MDR/XDR-TB is limited even in the European Region. In the absence of a preventive vaccine, more effective diagnostic tools and novel therapeutic interventions the control of MDR/XDR-TB will be extremely difficult. Despite recent scientific advances in MDR/XDR-TB care, decisions for the management of patients with MDR/XDR-TB and their contacts often rely on expert opinions, rather than on clinical evidence. This document summarises the current knowledge on the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of adults and children with MDR/XDR-TB and their contacts, and provides expert consensus recommendations on questions where scientific evidence is still lacking. PMID:24659544

Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

PubMed

Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

2016-01-07

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

Gender, Education, Extremism and Security

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Lynn

2008-01-01

This paper examines the complex relationships between gender, education, extremism and security. After defining extremism and fundamentalism, it looks first at the relationship of gender to violence generally, before looking specifically at how this plays out in more extremist violence and terrorism. Religious fundamentalism is also shown to have…

Objective sensory evaluation of the spread of complex regional pain syndrome.

PubMed

Edinger, Lara; Schwartzman, Robert J; Ahmad, Ayesha; Erwin, Kirsten; Alexander, Guillermo M

2013-01-01

The spread of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) has been well documented. Many severe refractory long-standing patients have total body pain (TBP) that evolved from a single extremity injury. The purpose of this study was to document by objective sensory threshold testing the extent of body area involvement in 20 long-standing patients with CRPS who have TBP. A comparison of sensory threshold testing parameters between 20 long-standing refractory patients with CRPS who have TBP versus 10 healthy participants. Twenty patients with CRPS who stated that they suffered from total body pain were chosen from the Drexel University College of Medicine CRPS database. They were compared to 10 healthy participants that were age and gender matched to the patients with CRPS. The sensory parameters tested were: skin temperature; static and mechanical allodynia; thermal allodynia; mechanical hyperalgesia; after sensations following all sensory tests. The sites chosen for testing in the patients with CRPS were the most painful area in each of 8 body regions that comprised the total body area. Five patients with CRPS had signs of CRPS over 100% of their body (20%). One patient had pain over 87% and another had pain over 90% of their body area. The average percentage of body involvement was 62% (range 37% - 100%). All patients with CRPS had at least one sensory parameter abnormality in all body regions. All patients with CRPS had lower pain thresholds for static allodynia in all body areas, while 50% demonstrated a lower threshold for dynamic allodynia in all body regions compared to the healthy participants. Cold allodynia had a higher median pain rating on the Likert pain scale in all body areas versus healthy participants except for the chest, abdomen, and back. Eighty-five percent of the patients with CRPS had a significantly lower pain threshold for mechanical hyperalgesia in all body areas compared to the healthy participants. After sensations occurred after all sensory parameters in the extremities in patients with CRPS. The primary limitations of this study would be the variability of self-reported data (each subject's assessment of pain/ discomfort to a tested parameter) and the challenge to uniformly administer each parameter's assessment since simple tools and not precision instruments were used (with the exception of skin temperature). TBP and objective sensory loss occur in 20% of patients with refractory long-standing CRPS.

Climate signature of Northwest U.S. precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Y.; Nakamura, J.

2017-12-01

The climate signature of precipitation extremes in the Northwest U.S. - the region that includes Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming - is studied using composite analysis of atmospheric fields leading to and associated with extreme rainfall events. A K-Medoids cluster analysis is applied to winter (November-February) months, maximum 5-day precipitation amounts calculated from 1-degree gridded daily rainfall between 1950/51 and 2013/14. The clustering divides the region into three sub-regions: one over the far eastern part of the analysis domain, includeing most of Montana and Wyoming. Two other sub-regions are in the west, lying north and south of the latitude of 45N. Using the time series corresponding to the Medoid centers, we extract the largest (top 5%) monthly extreme events to form the basis for the composite analysis. The main circulation feature distinguishing a 5-day extreme precipitation event in the two western sub-regions of the Northwest is the presence of a large, blocking, high pressure anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska about a week before the beginning of the 5-day intense precipitation event. The high pressure center intensifies considerably with time, drifting slowly westward, up to a day before the extreme event. During that time, a weak low pressure centers appears at 30N, to the southwest of the high, deepening as it moves east. As the extreme rainfall event is about to begin, the now deep low is encroaching on the Northwest coast while its southern flank taps well south into the subtropical Pacific, drawing moisture from as south as 15N. During the 5-day extreme precipitation event the high pressure center moves west and weakens while the now intense low converges large amounts of subtropical moisture to precipitate over the western Northwest. The implication of this analysis for extended range prediction is assessed.

Regional Glacier Sensitivity to Climate Change in the Monsoonal Himalaya: Implications for Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Tsering, K.; Rinzin, T.; Dorji, C.; Johnson, E. S.; Cook, E. R.

2014-12-01

The rapid retreat of many glaciers in the monsoonal Himalaya is of potential societal concern. However, the retreat pattern in the region has been very heterogeneous, likely due in part to the inherent heterogeneity of climate and glaciers within the region. Assessing the impacts of glacier change on water resources, hydroelectric power, and hazard potential requires a detailed understanding of this potentially complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to climate change. Here we quantify glacier surface-mass balance and meltwater flux across the entire glacierized region of the Bhutanese watershed using a full surface-energy and -mass balance model validated with field data. We then test the sensitivity of the glaciers to climatic change and compare the results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes. Bhutan is chosen because it (1) sits in the bulls-eye of the monsoon, (2) has >600 glaciers that exhibit the extreme glacier heterogeneity typical of the Himalayas, and (3) faces many of the economic and hazard challenges associated with glacier changes in the Himalaya. Therefore, the methods and results from this study should be broadly applicable to other regions of the monsoonal Himalaya. Our modeling results show a complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to changes in climate across the Bhutanese Himalaya. However, our results also show that <15% of the glaciers in Bhutan account for >90% of the total meltwater flux, and that these glaciers are uniformly the glaciers most sensitive to changes in temperature (and less sensitive to other climate variables). We compare these results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes over the same region. In particular, we extract DEMs and orthorectified imagery from 1976 historical spy satellite images and 2006 ASTER images. DEM differencing shows that the glaciers that have changed most over the past thirty years also have the highest modeled temperature sensitivity. These results suggest that, despite the complex glacier heterogeneity in the region, the regional meltwater resources are controlled by a very small percentage of the glaciers, and that these glaciers are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature.

Glycemic control of diabetes patients under continuous rocket attacks.

PubMed

Soskolne, Varda; Dekel, Rachel; Vinker, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Evidence regarding the detrimental effects of exposure to stress on glycemic control among diabetes patients has mainly focused on personal life events or acute trauma. However, the effects of continuous exposure to extreme stress on type 2 diabetes patients have rarely been studied. The aim of the current study was to examine the association of continuous exposure to rocket attacks with glycemic control and with risk factors for diabetes complications among civilian type 2 diabetes patients. We focus on patients residing in the Western Negev in the south of Israel that has been subjected to rocket attacks fired from Gaza since the end of 2001. A two-arm retrospective cohort study of type 2 diabetes patients, aged 35-70 years, residing in a region with chronic exposure to rocket attacks (N = 1697) and in a non-exposed comparison region in Israel (N = 3000). Data were retrieved from the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO)'s database for four time periods representing exposure: chronic-2008; elevated-2009 (post'Cast Lead' operation); return to chronic-2010, 2011. Data included socio-demographic variables, HbA 1c , BMI, LDL cholesterol, blood pressure. General Linear Models (GLM) were used for analysis. For HbA 1c , the model yielded a significant main effect for time, a borderline significance main effect for region, and a significant time by region interaction: no differences in HbA 1c levels between the regions in 2008 and 2009, followed by significant differences between the regions in 2010 and 2011 when HbA 1c continued to increase in the exposed region but decreased in the comparison region. Regarding risk factors, a significant main effect for time for LDL cholesterol only, and significant main effects for region were found in all factors: BMI and LDL cholesterol were higher in the exposed than in the comparison region, but blood pressure values were lower. Continuous exposure to rocket attacks is associated with glycemic control and risk factors in a complex pattern. These preliminary findings require further studies of diverse types of civilian exposure to continuous extreme stress.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

PubMed

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Uncertainty Modeling for Robustness Analysis of Control Upset Prevention and Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Khong, Thuan H.; Shin, Jong-Yeob; Kwatny, Harry; Chang, Bor-Chin; Balas, Gary J.

2005-01-01

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. Such systems (developed for failure detection, identification, and reconfiguration, as well as upset recovery) need to be evaluated over broad regions of the flight envelope and under extreme flight conditions, and should include various sources of uncertainty. However, formulation of linear fractional transformation (LFT) models for representing system uncertainty can be very difficult for complex parameter-dependent systems. This paper describes a preliminary LFT modeling software tool which uses a matrix-based computational approach that can be directly applied to parametric uncertainty problems involving multivariate matrix polynomial dependencies. Several examples are presented (including an F-16 at an extreme flight condition, a missile model, and a generic example with numerous crossproduct terms), and comparisons are given with other LFT modeling tools that are currently available. The LFT modeling method and preliminary software tool presented in this paper are shown to compare favorably with these methods.

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function - A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M.; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ginoux, Paul

2017-01-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 0203 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function -A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model

PubMed Central

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M.; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ginoux, Paul

2018-01-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02-03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events. PMID:29632432

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function -A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model.

PubMed

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Ginoux, Paul

2017-06-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02-03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-03-01

The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here, we use the regional frequency analysis approach to define homogeneous regions which are affected by the same storms. Extreme value models are then fitted to the data pooled from across a region. We find that this approach leads to more spatially consistent return level estimates with reduced uncertainty bounds.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Huey, Raymond B

2016-12-01

Extreme temperatures can injure or kill organisms and can drive evolutionary patterns. Many indices of extremes have been proposed, but few attempts have been made to establish geographic patterns of extremes and to evaluate whether they align with geographic patterns in biological vulnerability and diversity. To examine these issues, we adopt the CLIMDEX indices of thermal extremes. We compute scores for each index on a geographic grid during a baseline period (1961-1990) and separately for the recent period (1991-2010). Heat extremes (temperatures above the 90th percentile during the baseline period) have become substantially more common during the recent period, particularly in the tropics. Importantly, the various indices show weak geographic concordance, implying that organisms in different regions will face different forms of thermal stress. The magnitude of recent shifts in indices is largely uncorrelated with baseline scores in those indices, suggesting that organisms are likely to face novel thermal stresses. Organismal tolerances correlate roughly with absolute metrics (mainly for cold), but poorly with metrics defined relative to local conditions. Regions with high extreme scores do not correlate closely with regions with high species diversity, human population density, or agricultural production. Even though frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have - and are likely to have - major impacts on organisms, the impacts are likely to be geographically and taxonomically idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

Topological data analyses and machine learning for detection, classification and characterization of atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muszynski, G.; Kashinath, K.; Wehner, M. F.; Prabhat, M.; Kurlin, V.

2017-12-01

We investigate novel approaches to detecting, classifying and characterizing extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), in large high-dimensional climate datasets. ARs are narrow filaments of concentrated water vapour in the atmosphere that bring much of the precipitation in many mid-latitude regions. The precipitation associated with ARs is also responsible for major flooding events in many coastal regions of the world, including the west coast of the United States and western Europe. In this study we combine ideas from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) with Machine Learning (ML) for detecting, classifying and characterizing extreme weather events, like ARs. TDA is a new field that sits at the interface between topology and computer science, that studies "shape" - hidden topological structure - in raw data. It has been applied successfully in many areas of applied sciences, including complex networks, signal processing and image recognition. Using TDA we provide ARs with a shape characteristic as a new feature descriptor for the task of AR classification. In particular, we track the change in topology in precipitable water (integrated water vapour) fields using the Union-Find algorithm. We use the generated feature descriptors with ML classifiers to establish reliability and classification performance of our approach. We utilize the parallel toolkit for extreme climate events analysis (TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science, Prabhat et al., Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns, 2015) for comparison (it is assumed that events identified by TECA is ground truth). Preliminary results indicate that our approach brings new insight into the study of ARs and provides quantitative information about the relevance of topological feature descriptors in analyses of a large climate datasets. We illustrate this method on climate model output and NCEP reanalysis datasets. Further, our method outperforms existing methods on detection and classification of ARs. This work illustrates that TDA combined with ML may provide a uniquely powerful approach for detection, classification and characterization of extreme weather phenomena.

Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2016-04-01

How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these factors leads to the urgent questions of what we might expect from future heavy precipitation, particularly summertime convective storms, and how the associated risks will change if the observed trends persist. Working on an event basis allows us to consider a robust diversity of indicators such as storm duration, total sums, and peak intensities of the individual rainfall events in our analysis. First results suggest that the temperature sensitivity of precipitation events in the study region generally rises in accordance with the CC rate, but rates diverge dependent on the spatio-temporal properties of the sampling. At high temperatures above about 25 °C, the heaviest events do not show increases beyond the CC rate, as have been reported in some other studies for temperatures below 25°C. This is likely due to limitations of moisture availability in hot summer conditions. Observations of relative humidity available for 77 out of the 188 stations used support this hypothesis. When events where humidity is well below saturation are excluded from the sample, quantile regression results show higher scaling rates. The preliminary findings underline the need for a more sophisticated analysis of the temperature-precipitation relationship especially in heterogeneous regions with complex terrain.

Can quantile mapping improve precipitation extremes from regional climate models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tani, Satyanarayana; Gobiet, Andreas

2015-04-01

The ability of quantile mapping to accurately bias correct regard to precipitation extremes is investigated in this study. We developed new methods by extending standard quantile mapping (QMα) to improve the quality of bias corrected extreme precipitation events as simulated by regional climate model (RCM) output. The new QM version (QMβ) was developed by combining parametric and nonparametric bias correction methods. The new nonparametric method is tested with and without a controlling shape parameter (Qmβ1 and Qmβ0, respectively). Bias corrections are applied on hindcast simulations for a small ensemble of RCMs at six different locations over Europe. We examined the quality of the extremes through split sample and cross validation approaches of these three bias correction methods. This split-sample approach mimics the application to future climate scenarios. A cross validation framework with particular focus on new extremes was developed. Error characteristics, q-q plots and Mean Absolute Error (MAEx) skill scores are used for evaluation. We demonstrate the unstable behaviour of correction function at higher quantiles with QMα, whereas the correction functions with for QMβ0 and QMβ1 are smoother, with QMβ1 providing the most reasonable correction values. The result from q-q plots demonstrates that, all bias correction methods are capable of producing new extremes but QMβ1 reproduces new extremes with low biases in all seasons compared to QMα, QMβ0. Our results clearly demonstrate the inherent limitations of empirical bias correction methods employed for extremes, particularly new extremes, and our findings reveals that the new bias correction method (Qmß1) produces more reliable climate scenarios for new extremes. These findings present a methodology that can better capture future extreme precipitation events, which is necessary to improve regional climate change impact studies.

Fine-scale mapping of a locus for severe bipolar mood disorder on chromosome 18p11.3 in the Costa Rican population

PubMed Central

McInnes, L. Alison; Service, Susan K.; Reus, Victor I.; Barnes, Glenn; Charlat, Olga; Jawahar, Satya; Lewitzky, Steve; Yang, Qing; Duong, Quyen; Spesny, Mitzi; Araya, Carmen; Araya, Xinia; Gallegos, Alvaro; Meza, Luis; Molina, Julio; Ramirez, Rolando; Mendez, Roxana; Silva, Sandra; Fournier, Eduardo; Batki, Steven L.; Mathews, Carol A.; Neylan, Thomas; Glatt, Charles E.; Escamilla, Michael A.; Luo, David; Gajiwala, Paresh; Song, Terry; Crook, Stephen; Nguyen, Jasmine B.; Roche, Erin; Meyer, Joanne M.; Leon, Pedro; Sandkuijl, Lodewijk A.; Freimer, Nelson B.; Chen, Hong

2001-01-01

We have searched for genes predisposing to bipolar disorder (BP) by studying individuals with the most extreme form of the affected phenotype, BP-I, ascertained from the genetically isolated population of the Central Valley of Costa Rica (CVCR). The results of a previous linkage analysis on two extended CVCR BP-I pedigrees, CR001 and CR004, and of linkage disequilibrium (LD) analyses of a CVCR population sample of BP-I patients implicated a candidate region on 18p11.3. We further investigated this region by creating a physical map and developing 4 new microsatellite and 26 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers for typing in the pedigree and population samples. We report the results of fine-scale association analyses in the population sample, as well as evaluation of haplotypes in pedigree CR001. Our results suggest a candidate region containing six genes but also highlight the complexities of LD mapping of common disorders. PMID:11572994

Towards Automatic Image Segmentation Using Optimised Region Growing Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alazab, Mamoun; Islam, Mofakharul; Venkatraman, Sitalakshmi

Image analysis is being adopted extensively in many applications such as digital forensics, medical treatment, industrial inspection, etc. primarily for diagnostic purposes. Hence, there is a growing interest among researches in developing new segmentation techniques to aid the diagnosis process. Manual segmentation of images is labour intensive, extremely time consuming and prone to human errors and hence an automated real-time technique is warranted in such applications. There is no universally applicable automated segmentation technique that will work for all images as the image segmentation is quite complex and unique depending upon the domain application. Hence, to fill the gap, this paper presents an efficient segmentation algorithm that can segment a digital image of interest into a more meaningful arrangement of regions and objects. Our algorithm combines region growing approach with optimised elimination of false boundaries to arrive at more meaningful segments automatically. We demonstrate this using X-ray teeth images that were taken for real-life dental diagnosis.

Nuclear medicine in clinical neurology: an update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldendorf, W.H.

1981-01-01

Isotope scanning using technetium 99m pertechnetate has fallen into disuse since the advent of x-ray computerized tomography. Regional brain blood flow studies have been pursued on a research basis. Increased regional blood flow during focal seizure activity has been demonstrated and is of use in localizing such foci. Cisternography as a predictive tool in normal pressure hydrocephalus is falling into disuse. Positron tomographic scanning is a potent research tool that can demonstrate both regional glycolysis and blood flow. Unfortunately, it is extremely expensive and complex to apply in a clinical setting. With support from the National Institutes of Health, sevenmore » extramural centers have been funded to develop positron tomographic capabilities, and they will greatly advance our knowledge of stroke pathophysiology, seizure disorders, brain tumors, and various degenerative diseases. Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging is a potentially valuable tool since it creates tomographic images representing the distribution of brain water. No tissue ionization is produced, and images comparable to second-generation computerized tomographic scans are already being produced in humans.« less

Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, A. C. S.; Galvão, C. O.; Silva, G. N. S.

2015-06-01

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997-2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012-2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

A maximally stable extremal region based scene text localization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chengqiu; Ji, Lixin; Gao, Chao; Li, Shaomei

2015-07-01

Text localization in natural scene images is an important prerequisite for many content-based image analysis tasks. This paper proposes a novel text localization algorithm. Firstly, a fast pruning algorithm is designed to extract Maximally Stable Extremal Regions (MSER) as basic character candidates. Secondly, these candidates are filtered by using the properties of fitting ellipse and the distribution properties of characters to exclude most non-characters. Finally, a new extremal regions projection merging algorithm is designed to group character candidates into words. Experimental results show that the proposed method has an advantage in speed and achieve relatively high precision and recall rates than the latest published algorithms.

Mars-like soils in the Atacama Desert, Chile, and the dry limit of microbial life.

PubMed

Navarro-González, Rafael; Rainey, Fred A; Molina, Paola; Bagaley, Danielle R; Hollen, Becky J; de la Rosa, José; Small, Alanna M; Quinn, Richard C; Grunthaner, Frank J; Cáceres, Luis; Gomez-Silva, Benito; McKay, Christopher P

2003-11-07

The Viking missions showed the martian soil to be lifeless and depleted in organic material and indicated the presence of one or more reactive oxidants. Here we report the presence of Mars-like soils in the extreme arid region of the Atacama Desert. Samples from this region had organic species only at trace levels and extremely low levels of culturable bacteria. Two samples from the extreme arid region were tested for DNA and none was recovered. Incubation experiments, patterned after the Viking labeled-release experiment but with separate biological and nonbiological isomers, show active decomposition of organic species in these soils by nonbiological processes.

Addressing the mischaracterization of extreme rainfall in regional climate model simulations - A synoptic pattern based bias correction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona

2018-01-01

Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.

Sympathetically maintained pain presenting first as temporomandibular disorder, then as parotid dysfunction.

PubMed

Giri, Subha; Nixdorf, Donald

2007-08-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic condition that usually affects extremities, such as the arms or legs. It is characterized by intense pain, swelling, redness, hypersensitivity in a region not defined by a single peripheral nerve and additional sudomotor effects, such as excessive sweating. The clinical criteria for the diagnosis of sympathetically maintained pain as outlined by the International Association for the Study of Pain include: Onset following an initiating noxious event (CRPS-type I) or nerve injury (CRPS-type II). Spontaneous allodynia that is not limited to peripheral nerve distribution and is not proportionate to the inciting event; abnormal sudomotor activity, skin blood flow abnormality, edema, other autonomic symptoms; and exclusion of other conditions that may otherwise contribute to the extent of the symptoms. Only 13 cases of CRPS involving sympathetically maintained pain in the head and neck region have been described, and all reported trauma as the identifiable etiologic factor. The case presented here is another occurrence of sympathetically maintained pain in the head and neck region, but without nerve injury as a clear initiating factor.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Influenza in Massachusetts: A Case-Crossover Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

BACKGROUND: Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions – however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result...

Primary adenocarcinoma of the thymus: an immunohistochemical and molecular study with review of the literature

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Primary adenocarcinoma of thymus is extremely rare. Case presentation This is a case of primary adenocarcinoma with intestinal differentiation and focal mucin production in the thymus. Thymic cyst was associated with this tumor. Intestinal differentiation was confirmed by immunohistochemical stain with positivity for CDX-2, CK20, villin, MOC31 and focal positivity of CK7. Array comperative genomic hybridization (CGH) analysis showed a complex pattern of chromosomal imbalances including homozygous deletion at the HLA locus in chromosomal region 6p21.32. Conclusion This rare tumor shows a similar genetic aberration with other studied thymic epithelial tumors. PMID:23725376

Carpal tunnel syndrome: just a peripheral neuropathy?

PubMed

Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César; Plaza-Manzano, Gustavo

2018-06-05

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is considered just a peripheral neuropathy of the upper extremity associated to the compression of the median nerve. There is evidence suggesting the presence of complex sensitization mechanisms in CTS. These processes are manifested by symptoms in extra-median regions and the presence of bilateral sensory and motor impairments. These sensory and motor changes are not associated to electrodiagnostic findings. The presence of sensitization mechanisms suggests that CTS should not be considered just as a peripheral neuropathy. The presence of altered nociceptive gain processing should be considered for therapeutic management of CTS by considering the application of therapeutic interventions that modulate nociceptive barrage into the CNS.

PANORAMA: An approach to performance modeling and diagnosis of extreme-scale workflows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deelman, Ewa; Carothers, Christopher; Mandal, Anirban

Here we report that computational science is well established as the third pillar of scientific discovery and is on par with experimentation and theory. However, as we move closer toward the ability to execute exascale calculations and process the ensuing extreme-scale amounts of data produced by both experiments and computations alike, the complexity of managing the compute and data analysis tasks has grown beyond the capabilities of domain scientists. Therefore, workflow management systems are absolutely necessary to ensure current and future scientific discoveries. A key research question for these workflow management systems concerns the performance optimization of complex calculation andmore » data analysis tasks. The central contribution of this article is a description of the PANORAMA approach for modeling and diagnosing the run-time performance of complex scientific workflows. This approach integrates extreme-scale systems testbed experimentation, structured analytical modeling, and parallel systems simulation into a comprehensive workflow framework called Pegasus for understanding and improving the overall performance of complex scientific workflows.« less

PANORAMA: An approach to performance modeling and diagnosis of extreme-scale workflows

DOE PAGES

Deelman, Ewa; Carothers, Christopher; Mandal, Anirban; ...

2015-07-14

Here we report that computational science is well established as the third pillar of scientific discovery and is on par with experimentation and theory. However, as we move closer toward the ability to execute exascale calculations and process the ensuing extreme-scale amounts of data produced by both experiments and computations alike, the complexity of managing the compute and data analysis tasks has grown beyond the capabilities of domain scientists. Therefore, workflow management systems are absolutely necessary to ensure current and future scientific discoveries. A key research question for these workflow management systems concerns the performance optimization of complex calculation andmore » data analysis tasks. The central contribution of this article is a description of the PANORAMA approach for modeling and diagnosing the run-time performance of complex scientific workflows. This approach integrates extreme-scale systems testbed experimentation, structured analytical modeling, and parallel systems simulation into a comprehensive workflow framework called Pegasus for understanding and improving the overall performance of complex scientific workflows.« less

Flooding experience at Veracruz: not only a natural disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Nava Bringas, M.; Ochoa Martinez, C.; Local; regional impacts of global change

2013-05-01

The Veracruz state lies on the middle of the Gulf of Mexico in Mexican Republic; has a surface of 72815 Km2 represent almost the 4% of Mexico. Due to the complex topography, the rainfall, runoff and the extreme weather the 33% of Mexican water goes trough Veracruz, and every year the presence of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes impacts on the habitants of Veracruz (7.5 millions). For Veracruz the Sierra Madre is the natural border on the West and on the East the Gulf of Mexico. It is located from 17°10' to 23°38' (N) and between 93° to 99° (W). We will try to get the find out the primary information source for the floods on 2005 and 20010 and correlate with the laws on environment and civil protection for Veracruz. In 1999 a tropical depression more than 200 000 persons and more than 20 died, in 2005 Stan hurricane affected more than a million persons but no one died. In 2010 the effects of hurricane Karl were similar but a few days after the tropical depression Mathew affected 150 000 persons more and 15 people died. The patterns of people habitat in Veracruz since middle of XX century follows the oil industry develop at south east Mexico, so the risk increased as the population density increased, that's a critical reason to concluded that is not only cause - effect issue on Veracruz. So if the extreme events increase as consequence of the climate variability and climate change the vulnerability on this region will not be address in prevention policies, and the future scenario on adaptation will be a deep complex problem to solve from all perspectives.Reported impactst; Extreme events. Data from Veracruz Government.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

PubMed Central

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

I-BIEM calculations of the frequency dispersion and ac current distribution at disk and ring-disk electrodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahan, Boris D.

1991-01-01

The Iterative Boundary Integral Equation Method (I-BIEM) has been applied to the problem of frequency dispersion at a disk electrode in a finite geometry. The I-BIEM permits the direct evaluation of the AC potential (a complex variable) using complex boundary conditions. The point spacing was made highly nonuniform, to give extremely high resolution in those regions where the variables change most rapidly, i.e., in the vicinity of the edge of the disk. Results are analyzed with respect to IR correction, equipotential surfaces, and reference electrode placement. The current distribution is also examined for a ring-disk configuration, with the ring and the disk at the same AC potential. It is shown that the apparent impedance of the disk is inductive at higher frequencies. The results are compared to analytic calculations from the literature, and usually agree to better than 0.001 percent.

I-BIEM calculations of the frequency dispersion and AC current distribution at disk and ring-disk electrodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahan, Boris D.

1991-01-01

The Iterative Boundary Integral Equation Method (I-BIEM) has been applied to the problem of frequency dispersion at a disk electrode in a finite geometry. The I-BIEM permits the direct evaluation of the AC potential (a complex variable) using complex boundary conditions. The point spacing was made highly nonuniform, to give extremely high resolution in those regions where the variables change most rapidly, i.e., in the vicinity of the edge of the disk. Results are analyzed with respect to IR correction, equipotential surfaces, and reference electrode placement. The current distribution is also examined for a ring-disk configuration, with the ring and the disk at the same AC potential. It is shown that the apparent impedance of the disk is inductive at higher frequencies. The results are compared to analytic calculations from the literature, and usually agree to better than 0.001 percent.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS type-1) in an Adolescent Following Extravasation of Dextrose Containing Fluid-an Underdiagnosed Case.

PubMed

Subedi, Asish; Bhattarai, Balkrishna; Biswas, Binay K; Khatiwada, Sindhu

2011-06-01

Due to its complex pathophysiology and wide spectrum of clinical manifestations, the diagnosis of CRPS is often missed in the early stage by primary care physicians. After being treated by a primary care physician for 5 months for chronic cellulitis, a 16-year-old girl was referred to our hospital with features of type-1 CRPS of the right upper extremity. Inability to diagnose early caused prolonged suffering to the girl with all the consequence of CRPS. The patient responded well with marked functional recovery from multimodal therapy. Ability to distinguish CRPS from other pain conditions, referral for specialty care at the appropriate time and full awareness of this condition and its clinical features among various healthcare professionals are essential in reducing patient suffering and stopping its progression towards difficult-to-treat situations.

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B.; Bugge, Katrine; Kissling, Vera M.; Heidarsson, Pétur O.; Fernandes, Catarina B.; Sottini, Andrea; Soranno, Andrea; Buholzer, Karin J.; Nettels, Daniel; Kragelund, Birthe B.; Best, Robert B.; Schuler, Benjamin

2018-03-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring defined binding sites or interactions between specific individual residues. Proteome-wide sequence analysis suggests that this interaction mechanism may be abundant in eukaryotes.

Oceanic forcing of coral reefs.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan J; Falter, James L

2015-01-01

Although the oceans play a fundamental role in shaping the distribution and function of coral reefs worldwide, a modern understanding of the complex interactions between ocean and reef processes is still only emerging. These dynamics are especially challenging owing to both the broad range of spatial scales (less than a meter to hundreds of kilometers) and the complex physical and biological feedbacks involved. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of these processes, ranging from the small-scale mechanics of flow around coral communities and their influence on nutrient exchange to larger, reef-scale patterns of wave- and tide-driven circulation and their effects on reef water quality and perceived rates of metabolism. We also examine regional-scale drivers of reefs such as coastal upwelling, internal waves, and extreme disturbances such as cyclones. Our goal is to show how a wide range of ocean-driven processes ultimately shape the growth and metabolism of coral reefs.

Comparative mitochondrial genomics of snakes: extraordinary substitution rate dynamics and functionality of the duplicate control region

PubMed Central

Jiang, Zhi J; Castoe, Todd A; Austin, Christopher C; Burbrink, Frank T; Herron, Matthew D; McGuire, Jimmy A; Parkinson, Christopher L; Pollock, David D

2007-01-01

Background The mitochondrial genomes of snakes are characterized by an overall evolutionary rate that appears to be one of the most accelerated among vertebrates. They also possess other unusual features, including short tRNAs and other genes, and a duplicated control region that has been stably maintained since it originated more than 70 million years ago. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of evolutionary dynamics in snake mitochondrial genomes to better understand the basis of these extreme characteristics, and to explore the relationship between mitochondrial genome molecular evolution, genome architecture, and molecular function. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes from Slowinski's corn snake (Pantherophis slowinskii) and two cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) to complement previously existing mitochondrial genomes, and to provide an improved comparative view of how genome architecture affects molecular evolution at contrasting levels of divergence. Results We present a Bayesian genetic approach that suggests that the duplicated control region can function as an additional origin of heavy strand replication. The two control regions also appear to have different intra-specific versus inter-specific evolutionary dynamics that may be associated with complex modes of concerted evolution. We find that different genomic regions have experienced substantial accelerated evolution along early branches in snakes, with different genes having experienced dramatic accelerations along specific branches. Some of these accelerations appear to coincide with, or subsequent to, the shortening of various mitochondrial genes and the duplication of the control region and flanking tRNAs. Conclusion Fluctuations in the strength and pattern of selection during snake evolution have had widely varying gene-specific effects on substitution rates, and these rate accelerations may have been functionally related to unusual changes in genomic architecture. The among-lineage and among-gene variation in rate dynamics observed in snakes is the most extreme thus far observed in animal genomes, and provides an important study system for further evaluating the biochemical and physiological basis of evolutionary pressures in vertebrate mitochondria. PMID:17655768

Impacts of Irrigation on Daily Extremes in the Coupled Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Krakauer, Nir; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenka, Larissa; Kelly, Maxwell; Wada, Yoshihide

2014-01-01

Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models, simulation studies have revealed significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on daily extremes at the global scale. We simulate global climate for the year 2000 with and without irrigation to understand irrigation-induced changes. Our simulations reveal shifts in key climate-extreme metrics. These findings indicate that land cover and land use change may be an important contributor to climate extremes both locally and in remote regions including the low-latitudes.

Analysis of Atmospheric Moisture Transport over the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minallah, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2017-12-01

The high-altitude region of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) ranges is susceptible to natural disasters due to their extreme topographic features and climatic conditions. The region, where large population resides in deep valleys and mountain foothills, is prone to riverine flooding, flash floods, and extreme precipitation events whose frequency is perceived to be increasing, often with attribution to climate change. It is thus imperative to study the causation using modern hydrometeorological products. In this study, we identify regions with documented trends in extreme flooding and precipitation and carry out a statistical analysis of the atmospheric moisture transport at the synoptic scale for these regions using ERA-Interim and NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis products. We focus on the two main sources for the atmospheric moisture in the region: the summer South-East Asian Monsoon and the winter Westerlies, and explore how variations in these systems affect the moisture convergence and divergence over the region. Our findings indicate that the Monsoon precipitation has been intensifying in the western Himalayas over the past decade and a half and that these changes are likely related to moisture advection into the region.

Functional Organization of hsp70 Cluster in Camel (Camelus dromedarius) and Other Mammals

PubMed Central

Garbuz, David G.; Astakhova, Lubov N.; Zatsepina, Olga G.; Arkhipova, Irina R.; Nudler, Eugene; Evgen'ev, Michael B.

2011-01-01

Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) is a molecular chaperone providing tolerance to heat and other challenges at the cellular and organismal levels. We sequenced a genomic cluster containing three hsp70 family genes linked with major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class III region from an extremely heat tolerant animal, camel (Camelus dromedarius). Two hsp70 family genes comprising the cluster contain heat shock elements (HSEs), while the third gene lacks HSEs and should not be induced by heat shock. Comparison of the camel hsp70 cluster with the corresponding regions from several mammalian species revealed similar organization of genes forming the cluster. Specifically, the two heat inducible hsp70 genes are arranged in tandem, while the third constitutively expressed hsp70 family member is present in inverted orientation. Comparison of regulatory regions of hsp70 genes from camel and other mammals demonstrates that transcription factor matches with highest significance are located in the highly conserved 250-bp upstream region and correspond to HSEs followed by NF-Y and Sp1 binding sites. The high degree of sequence conservation leaves little room for putative camel-specific regulatory elements. Surprisingly, RT-PCR and 5′/3′-RACE analysis demonstrated that all three hsp70 genes are expressed in camel's muscle and blood cells not only after heat shock, but under normal physiological conditions as well, and may account for tolerance of camel cells to extreme environmental conditions. A high degree of evolutionary conservation observed for the hsp70 cluster always linked with MHC locus in mammals suggests an important role of such organization for coordinated functioning of these vital genes. PMID:22096537

The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

2013-04-01

Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

From lepton protoplasm to the genesis of hadrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, S. M.; Kosmachev, O. S.

2016-01-01

Theory of matter under extreme conditions opens a new stage in particle physics. It is necessary here to combine Dirac's elementary particle physics with Prigogine's dynamics of nonequilibrium systems. In the article we discuss the problem of the hierarchy of complexity. What can be considered as the lowest level of the organization of extreme matter on the basis of which the self-organization of the complex form occur?

Decreasing spatial variability in precipitation extremes in southwestern China and the local/large-scale influencing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Sun, Alex

2015-07-01

Climate extremes can cause devastating damage to human society and ecosystems. Recent studies have drawn many conclusions about trends in climate extremes, but few have focused on quantitative analysis of their spatial variability and underlying mechanisms. By using the techniques of overlapping moving windows, the Mann-Kendall trend test, correlation, and stepwise regression, this study examined the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation extremes and investigated the potential key factors influencing this variation in southwestern (SW) China, a globally important biodiversity hot spot and climate-sensitive region. Results showed that the changing trends of precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform, but the spatial variability of these precipitation extremes decreased from 1959 to 2012. Further analysis found that atmospheric circulations rather than local factors (land cover, topographic conditions, etc.) were the main cause of such precipitation extremes. This study suggests that droughts or floods may become more homogenously widespread throughout SW China. Hence, region-wide assessments and coordination are needed to help mitigate the economic and ecological impacts.

Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjihosseini, A.; Wächter, Matthias; Hoffmann, N. P.; Peinke, J.

2016-01-01

As an example of a complex system with extreme events, we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. We present a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows the grasping of extreme rogue wave events in a highly satisfactory statistical manner. The key to the success of the approach is mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales, for which we can show that a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated, which makes it possible to work out arbitrary statistical features of the complex sea state in general, and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

Near-infrared roll-off-free electroluminescence from highly stable diketopyrrolopyrrole light emitting diodes

PubMed Central

Sassi, Mauro; Buccheri, Nunzio; Rooney, Myles; Botta, Chiara; Bruni, Francesco; Giovanella, Umberto; Brovelli, Sergio; Beverina, Luca

2016-01-01

Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) operating in the near-infrared spectral region are gaining growing relevance for emerging photonic technologies, such as lab-on-chip platforms for medical diagnostics, flexible self-medicated pads for photodynamic therapy, night vision and plastic-based telecommunications. The achievement of efficient near-infrared electroluminescence from solution-processed OLEDs is, however, an open challenge due to the low photoluminescence efficiency of most narrow-energy-gap organic emitters. Diketopyrrolopyrrole-boron complexes are promising candidates to overcome this limitation as they feature extremely high photoluminescence quantum yield in the near-infrared region and high chemical stability. Here, by incorporating suitably functionalized diketopyrrolopyrrole derivatives emitting at ~760 nm in an active matrix of poly(9,9-dioctylfluorene-alt-benzothiadiazole) and without using complex light out-coupling or encapsulation strategies, we obtain all-solution-processed NIR-OLEDs with external quantum efficiency as high as 0.5%. Importantly, our test-bed devices show no efficiency roll-off even for high current densities and high operational stability, retaining over 50% of the initial radiant emittance for over 50 hours of continuous operation at 10 mA/cm2, which emphasizes the great applicative potential of the proposed strategy. PMID:27677240

Calls reveal population structure of blue whales across the southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Balcazar, Naysa E; Tripovich, Joy S; Klinck, Holger; Nieukirk, Sharon L; Mellinger, David K; Dziak, Robert P; Rogers, Tracey L

2015-11-24

For effective species management, understanding population structure and distribution is critical. However, quantifying population structure is not always straightforward. Within the Southern Hemisphere, the blue whale ( Balaenoptera musculus ) complex is extremely diverse but difficult to study. Using automated detector methods, we identified "acoustic populations" of whales producing region-specific call types. We examined blue whale call types in passive acoustic data at sites spanning over 7,370 km across the southeast Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) from 2009 to 2012. In the absence of genetic resolution, these acoustic populations offer unique information about the blue whale population complex. We found that the Australian continent acts as a geographic boundary, separating Australia and New Zealand blue whale acoustic populations at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. We located blue whales in previously undocumented locations, including the far SWPO, in the Tasman Sea off the east coast of Australia, and along the Lau Basin near Tonga. Our understanding of population dynamics across this broad scale has significant implications to recovery and conservation management for this endangered species, at a regional and global scale.

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

DOE PAGES

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Daithi; Wehner, Michael; ...

2017-02-16

Here, the effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ~1.0° and ~0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21stmore » century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.« less

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2017-02-01

The effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ˜1.0° and ˜0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21st century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.

Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Mozar de A.; de Brito, J. I. B.

2017-06-01

During the 1980s, a new agricultural frontier arouse in Brazil, which occupied part of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Currently, this new frontier is known as the MATOPIBA region. The region went through intense transformations in its social and environmental characteristics, with the emergence of extensive areas of intensive agriculture and large herds. The purpose of this research was to study the climatic variabilities of temperature in the MATOPIBA region through extreme climate indexes of ClimAp tool. Data from 11 weather stations were analyzed for yearly air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the period of 1970 to 2012. To verify the trend in the series, we used methods of linear regression analysis and Kendall-tau test. The annual analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures and of the temperature extremes indexes showed a strong positive trend in practically every series (with p value less than 0.05). These results indicated that the region went through to a significant heating process in the last 3 decades. The indices of extreme also showed a significant positive trend in most of the analyzed stations, indicating a higher frequency of warm days during the year.

Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colmet-Daage, Antoine; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Ricci, Sophie; Llovel, Cécile; Borrell Estupina, Valérie; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Servat, Eric

2018-01-01

The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

A rare disease in an atypical location-Kimura's Disease of the upper extremity.

PubMed

Lam, Alan Cheuk Si; Au Yeung, Rex Kwok Him; Lau, Vince Wing Hang

2015-12-01

Kimura's disease is a rare chronic inflammatory disorder predominantly affecting young Asian male patients, occurring mainly in the head and neck regions. Kimura's disease of the upper extremity is extremely rare, and previous case reports in the literature show similar imaging characteristics with consistent location at the medial epitrochlear region, predominantly with unilateral involvement. We present the first reported case of Kimura's disease affecting the anterolateral aspect of the upper arm, sparing the medial epitrochlear region, illustrating that with typical MR appearance and serology, the involvement of this rare disease in an atypical location still warrants consideration of this diagnosis. There was also bilateral asymmetrical involvement in our patient, suggesting the possibility of a propensity for Kimura's disease affecting the upper extremities to have bilateral involvement, which may necessitate imaging of the clinically asymptomatic contralateral limb in these patients for early lesion identification and treatment.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

Ecosystem-scale VOC fluxes during an extreme drought in a ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Considerable amounts and varieties of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are exchanged between vegetation and the surrounding air. These BVOCs play key ecological and atmospheric roles that must be adequately represented for accurately modeling the coupled biosphere-atmosphere-climate Earth system. One key uncertainty in existing models is the response of BVOC fluxes to an important global change process: drought. We describe the diurnal and seasonal variation in isoprene, monoterpene and methanol fluxes from a temperate forest ecosystem before, during, and after an extreme 2012 drought event in the Ozark region of the central USA. BVOC fluxes were dominated by isoprene, which attained high emission rates of up to 35.4 mg m-2 h-1 at midday. Methanol fluxes were characterized by net deposition in the morning, changing to a net emission flux through the rest of the daylight hours. Net flux of CO2 reached its seasonal maximum approximately a month earlier than isoprenoid fluxes, which highlights the differential response of photosynthesis and isoprenoid emissions to progressing drought conditions. Nevertheless, both processes were strongly suppressed under extreme drought, although isoprene fluxes remained relatively high compared to reported fluxes from other ecosystems. Methanol exchange was less affected by drought throughout the season, confirming the complex processes driving biogenic methanol fluxes. The fraction of daytime (7-17 h) assimilated carbo

A flexible cure rate model for spatially correlated survival data based on generalized extreme value distribution and Gaussian process priors.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Dey, Dipak K

2016-09-01

Our present work proposes a new survival model in a Bayesian context to analyze right-censored survival data for populations with a surviving fraction, assuming that the log failure time follows a generalized extreme value distribution. Many applications require a more flexible modeling of covariate information than a simple linear or parametric form for all covariate effects. It is also necessary to include the spatial variation in the model, since it is sometimes unexplained by the covariates considered in the analysis. Therefore, the nonlinear covariate effects and the spatial effects are incorporated into the systematic component of our model. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a natural framework for modeling potentially nonlinear relationship and have recently become extremely powerful in nonlinear regression. Our proposed model adopts a semiparametric Bayesian approach by imposing a GP prior on the nonlinear structure of continuous covariate. With the consideration of data availability and computational complexity, the conditionally autoregressive distribution is placed on the region-specific frailties to handle spatial correlation. The flexibility and gains of our proposed model are illustrated through analyses of simulated data examples as well as a dataset involving a colon cancer clinical trial from the state of Iowa. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.

2009-12-01

Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years and drier extreme wet months for the Upper Colorado basin, the differences are mostly not-significant. Exceptions are the results about the extreme wet years for n=3 for sub-region White-Yampa, for n=6, 7, and 8 for sub-region Upper Colorado-Dolores, and about the extreme dry years for n=11 for sub-region Great Divide-Upper Green. None of the results for the sub-regions in the Lower Colorado Basin were significant. For most of the Upper Colorado sub-regions the models simulate significantly lower frequency of negative and positive 4-6 year runs, while for several sub-regions a significantly higher frequency of 2-year negative runs is evident in the model versus the Maurer data comparisons. The model projections versus the PRISM data comparison reveals similar results for the negative runs, while for the positive runs the results indicate that the models simulate higher frequency of the 2-6 year runs. The results for the Lower Colorado basin sub-regions are similar, in general, to these for the Upper Colorado sub-regions. The differences between the simulated and the observed total number of negative or positive runs were not significant for almost all of the sub-regions within the Colorado River Basin.

Agriculturally Relevant Climate Extremes and Their Trends in the World's Major Growing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiao; Troy, Tara J.

2018-04-01

Climate extremes can negatively impact crop production, and climate change is expected to affect the frequency and severity of extremes. Using a combination of in situ station measurements (Global Historical Climatology Network's Daily data set) and multiple other gridded data products, a derived 1° data set of growing season climate indices and extremes is compiled over the major growing regions for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice for 1951-2006. This data set contains growing season climate indices that are agriculturally relevant, such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, and rainfall intensity. Before 1980, temperature-related indices had few trends; after 1980, statistically significant warming trends exist for each crop in the majority of growing regions. In particular, crops have increasingly been exposed to extreme hot temperatures, above which yields have been shown to decline. Rainfall trends are less consistent compared to temperature, with some regions receiving more rainfall and others less. Anomalous temperature and precipitation conditions are shown to often occur concurrently, with dry growing seasons more likely to be hotter, have larger drought indices, and have larger vapor pressure deficits. This leads to the confluence of a variety of climate conditions that negatively impact crop yields. These results show a consistent increase in global agricultural exposure to negative climate conditions since 1980.

Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

2013-04-01

We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

The extremely metal-poor galaxy DDO 68: the luminous blue variable, Hα shells and the most luminous stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustilnik, S. A.; Makarova, L. N.; Perepelitsyna, Y. A.; Moiseev, A. V.; Makarov, D. I.

2017-03-01

This paper presents new results from the ongoing study of the unusual Lynx-Cancer void galaxy DDO 68, which has star-forming regions of record low metallicity [12+log (O/H) ˜7.14]. The results include the following. (I) A new spectrum and photometry have been obtained with the 6-m SAO RAS telescope (BTA) for the luminous blue variable (LBV = DDO68-V1). Photometric data sets were complemented with others based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archive images. (II) We performed an analysis of the DDO 68 supergiant shell (SGS) and the prominent smaller Hα arcs/shells visible in the HST image coupled with kinematic maps in Hα obtained with the Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) at the BTA. (III) We compiled a list of about 50 of the most luminous stars (-9.1 mag < MV < -6.0 mag) identified from the HST images associated with the star-forming regions with known extremely low O/H. This is intended to pave the path for the current science to be investigated with the next generation of giant telescopes. We have confirmed earlier hints of significant variation of the LBV optical light, deriving its amplitude as ΔV ≳ 3.7 mag for the first time. New data suggest that in 2008-2010 the LBV reached MV = -10.5 mag and probably underwent a giant eruption. We argue that the structure of star-forming complexes along the SGS ('Northern Ring') perimeter provides evidence for sequential induced star-formation episodes caused by the shell gas instabilities and gravitational collapse. The variability of some luminous extremely metal-poor stars in DDO 68 can currently be monitored with medium-size telescopes at sites with superb seeing.

Exact simulation of max-stable processes.

PubMed

Dombry, Clément; Engelke, Sebastian; Oesting, Marco

2016-06-01

Max-stable processes play an important role as models for spatial extreme events. Their complex structure as the pointwise maximum over an infinite number of random functions makes their simulation difficult. Algorithms based on finite approximations are often inexact and computationally inefficient. We present a new algorithm for exact simulation of a max-stable process at a finite number of locations. It relies on the idea of simulating only the extremal functions, that is, those functions in the construction of a max-stable process that effectively contribute to the pointwise maximum. We further generalize the algorithm by Dieker & Mikosch (2015) for Brown-Resnick processes and use it for exact simulation via the spectral measure. We study the complexity of both algorithms, prove that our new approach via extremal functions is always more efficient, and provide closed-form expressions for their implementation that cover most popular models for max-stable processes and multivariate extreme value distributions. For simulation on dense grids, an adaptive design of the extremal function algorithm is proposed.

Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two events to be considered potentially related. Both measures are then used to generate climate networks from parts of the satellite-based TRMM precipitation data set at daily resolution covering the Indian and East Asian monsoon domains, respectively, thereby reanalysing previously published results. The obtained spatial patterns of degree densities and local clustering coefficients exhibit marked differences between both similarity measures. Specifically, we demonstrate that there exists a strong relationship between the fraction of extremes occurring at subsequent days and the degree density in the event synchronization based networks, suggesting that the spatial patterns obtained using this approach are strongly affected by the presence of serial dependencies between events. Given that a manual selection of the maximally tolerable delay between two events can be guided by a priori climatological knowledge and even used for systematic testing of different hypotheses on climatic processes underlying the emergence of spatio-temporal patterns of extreme precipitation, our results provide evidence that event coincidence rates are a more appropriate statistical characteristic for similarity assessment and network construction for climate extremes, while results based on event synchronization need to be interpreted with great caution.

Apennine Front revisited - Diversity of Apollo 15 highland rock types

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindstrom, Marilyn M.; Marvin, Ursula B.; Vetter, Scott K.; Shervais, John W.

1988-01-01

The Apollo 15 landing site is geologically the most complex of the Apollo sites, situated at a mare-highland interface within the rings of two of the last major basin-forming impacts. Few of the Apollo 15 samples are ancient highland rocks derived from the early differentiation of the moon, or impact melts from major basin impacts. Most of the samples are regolith breccias containing abundant clasts of younger volcanic mare and KREEP basalts. The early geologic evolution of the region can be understood only by examining the small fragments of highland rocks found in regolith breccias and soils. Geochemical and petrologic studies of clasts and matrices of three impact melt breccias and four regolith breccias are presented. Twelve igneous and metamorphic rocks show extreme diversity and include a new type of ferroan norite. Twenty-five samples of highland impact melt are divided into groups based on composition. These impact melts form nearly a continuum over more than an order of magnitude in REE concentrations. This continuum may result from both major basin impacts and younger local events. Highland rocks from the Apennine Front include most of the highland rock types found at all of the other sites. An extreme diversity of highland rocks is a fundamental characteristic of the Apennine Front and is a natural result of its complex geologic evolution.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Quantitative trait locus for reading disability on chromosome 6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardon, L.R.; Smith, S.D.; Kimberling, W.J.

1994-10-14

Interval mapping of data from two independent samples of sib pairs, at least one member of whom was reading disabled, revealed evidence for a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 6. Results obtained from analyses of reading performance from 114 sib pairs genotyped for DNA markers localized the QTL to 6p21.3. Analyses of corresponding data from an independent sample of 50 dizygotic twin pairs provided evidence for linkage to the same region. In combination, the replicate samples yielded a x{sup 2} value of 16.73 (P = 0.0002). Examination of twin and kindred siblings with more extreme deficits in reading performancemore » yielded even stronger evidence for a QTL (x{sup 2} = 27.35, P < 0.00001). The position of the QTL was narrowly defined with a 100:1 confidence interval to a 2-centimorgan region within the human leukocyte antigen complex. 23 refs., 4 figs.« less

A case of Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

PubMed

Rubel, Barry S

2007-01-01

Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a serious, generalized infection that is spread to humans through the bite of infected ticks. It can be lethal but it is curable. The disease gets its name from the Rocky Mountain region where it was first identified in 1896. The fever is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is maintained in nature in a complex life cycle involving ticks and mammals. Humans are considered to be accidental hosts and are not involved in the natural transmission cycle of this pathogen. The author examined a 47-year-old woman during a periodic recall appointment. The patient had no dental problems other than the need for routine prophylaxis but mentioned a recent problem with swelling of her extremities with an accompanying rash and general malaise and soreness in her neck region. Tests were conducted and a diagnosis of Rocky Mountain spotted fever was made.

The rifted margin of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClain, J. S.; Orcutt, J. A.

The structure of rifted continental margins has always been of great scientific interest, and now, with dwindling economic oil deposits, these complex geological features assume practical importance as well. The ocean-continent transition is, by definition, laterally heterogeneous and likely to be extremely complicated. The southernmost shotpoints (4, 5, and 6) in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic refraction profile in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia lie within a transition region and thus provide a testing ground for methods that treat wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous media. This portion of the profile runs from the Farasan Islands in the Red Sea across the coast line and the Hijaz-Asir escarpment into the Hijaz-Asir tectonic province. Because the southernmost shotpoint is within the margin of the Saudi sub-continent, the full transition region is not sampled. Furthermore, such an experiment is precluded by the narrowness of the purely oceanic portion of the Red Sea.

Detecting Evidence of Climate Change in the Forests of the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Osborne, Jesse D.

2008-01-01

Changes in land use or disturbances such as defoliation by insects, disease, or fire all affect the composition and amount of tree canopy in a forest. These changes are easy to detect. Noticing and understanding the complex ways that global or regional-scale climate change combines with these disturbances to affect forest growth patterns and succession is difficult. This is particularly true for regions where changes in climate are not the most extreme, such as the mid-latitude forests of the Eastern United States. If land and water resources are to be managed responsibly, it is important to know how well the impacts of climate change on these forests can be measured in order to provide the best information possible to respond to any future changes. The goal of this study is to test whether climate-induced changes in forests in the Eastern United States can be detected and characterized using satellite imagery.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

Projected regional changes in the characteristics of dry and moist heat waves in the United States derived from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme temperatures affect society in multiple ways, but the impacts are often different depending on the concurrent humidity. For example, the greatest impacts on human morbidity and mortality result when the temperature and humidity are both elevated. Conversely, high temperatures coupled with low humidity often lead to agricultural impacts resulting in lower yields. Despite the importance of humidity in determining heat wave impacts, relatively few students of future temperature extremes have also considered possible changes in humidity. In a recent study, we investigated recent historical changes in the frequency and intensity and low humidity and high humidity extreme temperature events using a framework based on isobaric equivalent temperature. Here, we extend this approach to climate projections from CMIP5 models to explore possible regional changes in extreme heat characteristics. After using quantile mapping to bias correct and downscale the CMIP5 model outputs, we analyze results from two future periods (2031-2055 and 2061-2085) and two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, corresponding to moderate and high levels of radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. For each of seven US regions, we consider changes in extreme temperature frequency, changes in the proportion of extreme temperature days characterized by high humidity, and changes in the magnitude of temperature and humidity on extreme temperature days.

Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.

2015-12-01

J. A. Marengo * and J. C. Espinoza** * Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Sao Paulo, Brazil ** Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH), Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as 'once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.

The evolution of resistance genes in multi-protein plant resistance systems.

PubMed

Friedman, Aaron R; Baker, Barbara J

2007-12-01

The genomic perspective aids in integrating the analysis of single resistance (R-) genes into a higher order model of complex plant resistance systems. The majority of R-genes encode a class of proteins with nucleotide binding (NB) and leucine-rich repeat (LRR) domains. Several R-proteins act in multi-protein R-complexes that mediate interaction with pathogen effectors to induce resistance signaling. The complexity of these systems seems to have resulted from multiple rounds of plant-pathogen co-evolution. R-gene evolution is thought to be facilitated by the formation of R-gene clusters, which permit sequence exchanges via recombinatorial mispairing and generate high haplotypic diversity. This pattern of evolution may also generate diversity at other loci that contribute to the R-complex. The rate of recombination at R-clusters is not necessarily homogeneous or consistent over evolutionary time: recent evidence suggests that recombination at R-clusters is increased following pathogen infection, suggesting a mechanism that induces temporary genome instability in response to extreme stress. DNA methylation and chromatin modifications may allow this instability to be conditionally regulated and targeted to specific genome regions. Knowledge of natural R-gene evolution may contribute to strategies for artificial evolution of novel resistance specificities.

Molecular modeling studies of substrate binding by penicillin acylase.

PubMed

Chilov, G G; Stroganov, O V; Svedas, V K

2008-01-01

Molecular modeling has revealed intimate details of the mechanism of binding of natural substrate, penicillin G (PG), in the penicillin acylase active center and solved questions raised by analysis of available X-ray structures, mimicking Michaelis complex, which substantially differ in the binding pattern of the PG leaving group. Three MD trajectories were launched, starting from PDB complexes of the inactive mutant enzyme with PG (1FXV) and native penicillin acylase with sluggishly hydrolyzed substrate analog penicillin G sulfoxide (1GM9), or from the complex obtained by PG docking. All trajectories converged to a similar PG binding mode, which represented the near-to-attack conformation, consistent with chemical criteria of how reactive Michaelis complex should look. Simulated dynamic structure of the enzyme-substrate complex differed significantly from 1FXV, resembling rather 1GM9; however, additional contacts with residues bG385, bS386, and bN388 have been found, which were missing in X-ray structures. Combination of molecular docking and molecular dynamics also clarified the nature of extremely effective phenol binding in the hydrophobic pocket of penicillin acylase, which lacked proper explanation from crystallographic experiments. Alternative binding modes of phenol were probed, and corresponding trajectories converged to a single binding pattern characterized by a hydrogen bond between the phenol hydroxyl and the main chain oxygen of bS67, which was not evident from the crystal structure. Observation of the trajectory, in which phenol moved from its steady bound to pre-dissociation state, mapped the consequence of molecular events governing the conformational transitions in a coil region a143-a146 coupled to substrate binding and release of the reaction products. The current investigation provided information on dynamics of the conformational transitions accompanying substrate binding and significance of poorly structured and flexible regions in maintaining catalytic framework.

TFIID TAF6-TAF9 Complex Formation Involves the HEAT Repeat-containing C-terminal Domain of TAF6 and Is Modulated by TAF5 Protein*

PubMed Central

Scheer, Elisabeth; Delbac, Frédéric; Tora, Laszlo; Moras, Dino; Romier, Christophe

2012-01-01

The general transcription factor TFIID recognizes specifically the core promoter of genes transcribed by eukaryotic RNA polymerase II, nucleating the assembly of the preinitiation complex at the transcription start site. However, the understanding in molecular terms of TFIID assembly and function remains poorly understood. Histone fold motifs have been shown to be extremely important for the heterodimerization of many TFIID subunits. However, these subunits display several evolutionary conserved noncanonical features when compared with histones, including additional regions whose role is unknown. Here we show that the conserved additional C-terminal region of TFIID subunit TAF6 can be divided into two domains: a small middle domain (TAF6M) and a large C-terminal domain (TAF6C). Our crystal structure of the TAF6C domain from Antonospora locustae at 1.9 Å resolution reveals the presence of five conserved HEAT repeats. Based on these data, we designed several mutants that were introduced into full-length human TAF6. Surprisingly, the mutants affect the interaction between TAF6 and TAF9, suggesting that the formation of the complex between these two TFIID subunits do not only depend on their histone fold motifs. In addition, the same mutants affect even more strongly the interaction between TAF6 and TAF9 in the context of a TAF5-TAF6-TAF9 complex. Expression of these mutants in HeLa cells reveals that most of them are unstable, suggesting their poor incorporation within endogenous TFIID. Taken together, our results suggest that the conserved additional domains in histone fold-containing subunits of TFIID and of co-activator SAGA are important for the assembly of these complexes. PMID:22696218

Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G.; Greve, Peter; Pitman, Andy J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-09-01

This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Estimated injury risk for specific injuries and body regions in frontal motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Schoell, Samantha L; Swett, Katrina R; Stitzel, Joel D

2015-01-01

Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data. Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15-105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate. Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4-4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6-9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9-43.8% risk). These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Intercontinental difference in extreme weather events for the Northern Hemisphere over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A.; Tan, J.; Piao, S.

2014-12-01

Weather events that are located in the tails of a weather distribution are called weather extremes. Weather extremes, including severe drought, flooding, heat and cold waves, usually can cause greatest damage to human lives and properties, and have profound implication on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycles. There is mounting evidence suggests that the frequency of temperature and hydrological weather extremes have steadily increased over the last decades, largely due to the ongoing climate change. On the other hand, the distribution and trend of weather extremes can be regionally heterogeneous, which have not been well understood. Here we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal trend of weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over the past half century (1961-2010), with emphasis on the intercontinental comparisons. Our results suggest that warming extremes have increased significantly in East Asia and West Europe; while coldness extremes have decreased globally. Heavy precipitation extremes significantly increased in eastern Northern America, boreal Eurasia, and some parts of China; while drought events showed an increasing trend in northern China-southern Mongolia and some parts of western United States. Our results highlight the regional difference in the trend of weather extremes, which need to be incorporated in the mitigation measures.

Analysis of Pax6 contiguous gene deletions in the mouse, Mus musculus, identifies regions distinct from Pax6 responsible for extreme small-eye and belly-spotting phenotypes.

PubMed

Favor, Jack; Bradley, Alan; Conte, Nathalie; Janik, Dirk; Pretsch, Walter; Reitmeir, Peter; Rosemann, Michael; Schmahl, Wolfgang; Wienberg, Johannes; Zaus, Irmgard

2009-08-01

In the mouse Pax6 function is critical in a dose-dependent manner for proper eye development. Pax6 contiguous gene deletions were shown to be homozygous lethal at an early embryonic stage. Heterozygotes express belly spotting and extreme microphthalmia. The eye phenotype is more severe than in heterozygous Pax6 intragenic null mutants, raising the possibility that deletions are functionally different from intragenic null mutations or that a region distinct from Pax6 included in the deletions affects eye phenotype. We recovered and identified the exact regions deleted in three new Pax6 deletions. All are homozygous lethal at an early embryonic stage. None express belly spotting. One expresses extreme microphthalmia and two express the milder eye phenotype similar to Pax6 intragenic null mutants. Analysis of Pax6 expression levels and the major isoforms excluded the hypothesis that the deletions expressing extreme microphthalmia are directly due to the action of Pax6 and functionally different from intragenic null mutations. A region distinct from Pax6 containing eight genes was identified for belly spotting. A second region containing one gene (Rcn1) was identified for the extreme microphthalmia phenotype. Rcn1 is a Ca(+2)-binding protein, resident in the endoplasmic reticulum, participates in the secretory pathway and expressed in the eye. Our results suggest that deletion of Rcn1 directly or indirectly contributes to the eye phenotype in Pax6 contiguous gene deletions.

Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

2016-02-01

Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

Current systems of coronal loops in 3D MHD simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warnecke, J.; Chen, F.; Bingert, S.; Peter, H.

2017-11-01

Aims: We study the magnetic field and current structure associated with a coronal loop. Through this we investigate to what extent the assumptions of a force-free magnetic field break down and where they might be justified. Methods: We analyze a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona in an emerging active region with the focus on the structure of the forming coronal loops. The lower boundary of this simulation is taken from a model of an emerging active region. As a consequence of the emerging magnetic flux and the horizontal motions at the surface a coronal loop forms self-consistently. We investigate the current density along magnetic field lines inside (and outside) this loop and study the magnetic and plasma properties in and around this loop. The loop is defined as the bundle of field lines that coincides with enhanced emission in extreme UV. Results: We find that the total current along the emerging loop changes its sign from being antiparallel to parallel to the magnetic field. This is caused by the inclination of the loop together with the footpoint motion. Around the loop, the currents form a complex non-force-free helical structure. This is directly related to a bipolar current structure at the loop footpoints at the base of the corona and a local reduction of the background magnetic field (I.e., outside the loop) caused by the plasma flow into and along the loop. Furthermore, the locally reduced magnetic pressure in the loop allows the loop to sustain a higher density, which is crucial for the emission in extreme UV. The action of the flow on the magnetic field hosting the loop turns out to also be responsible for the observed squashing of the loop. Conclusions: The complex magnetic field and current system surrounding it can only be modeled in 3D MHD models where the magnetic field has to balance the plasma pressure. A one-dimensional coronal loop model or a force-free extrapolation cannot capture the current system and the complex interaction of the plasma and the magnetic field in the coronal loop, despite the fact that the loop is under low-β conditions.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Upper Extremity Regional Anesthesia

PubMed Central

Neal, Joseph M.; Gerancher, J.C.; Hebl, James R.; Ilfeld, Brian M.; McCartney, Colin J.L.; Franco, Carlo D.; Hogan, Quinn H.

2009-01-01

Brachial plexus blockade is the cornerstone of the peripheral nerve regional anesthesia practice of most anesthesiologists. As part of the American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine’s commitment to providing intensive evidence-based education related to regional anesthesia and analgesia, this article is a complete update of our 2002 comprehensive review of upper extremity anesthesia. The text of the review focuses on (1) pertinent anatomy, (2) approaches to the brachial plexus and techniques that optimize block quality, (4) local anesthetic and adjuvant pharmacology, (5) complications, (6) perioperative issues, and (6) challenges for future research. PMID:19282714

Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane season.

Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the Southwestern U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

2012-01-01

Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the Southwestern U.S.A. (SW) provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods, and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs) largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions like the SW, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts, and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.

Anticipating Future Extreme Climate Events for Alaska Using Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.

2016-12-01

Alaska is projected to experience major changes in extreme climate during the 21st century, due to greenhouse warming and exacerbated by polar amplification, wherein the Arctic is warming at twice the rate compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Given its complex topography, Alaska displays extreme gradients of temperature and precipitation. However, global climate models (GCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution on the order of 100km, struggle to replicate these extremes. To help resolve this issue, this study employs dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations and quantile-mapping methodologies to provide a full suite of daily model variables at 20 km spatial resolution for Alaska, from 1970 to 2100. These data include downscaled products of the: ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015, GFDL-CM3 historical from 1970 to 2005, and GFDL-CM3 RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2100. Due to the limited nature of long-term observations and high-resolution modeling in Alaska, these data enable a broad expansion of extremes analysis. This study uses these data to highlight a subset of the 27 climate extremes indices, previously defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, as they pertain to climate change in Alaska. These indices are based on the statistical distributions of daily surface temperature and precipitation and focus on threshold exceedance, and percentiles. For example, the annual number of days with a daily maximum temperature greater than 25°C is anticipated to triple in many locations in Alaska by the end of the century. Climate extremes can also refer to long duration events, such as the record-setting warmth that defined the 2015-16 cold season in Alaska. The downscaled climate model simulations indicate that this past winter will be considered normal by as early as the mid-2040s, if we continue to warm according to the business-as-usual RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. This represents an accelerated warming as compared to projections form the coarse scale GCMs, and this greater rate of change in the downscaled products is noted with other extremes indices as well.

Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

2015-05-01

On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in magnitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have lower return periods than the extreme waves associated with hurricane season. These results are of great importance when evaluating the threat of extreme waves in the coastal and port infrastructure, for purposes of the design of new constructions, and in the coastal flood processes due to run-up because, according to the site of interest in the coast, the forces that shape extreme waves are not the same.

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2012-01-01

Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during themore » near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.« less

Extreme-scale Algorithms and Solver Resilience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dongarra, Jack

A widening gap exists between the peak performance of high-performance computers and the performance achieved by complex applications running on these platforms. Over the next decade, extreme-scale systems will present major new challenges to algorithm development that could amplify this mismatch in such a way that it prevents the productive use of future DOE Leadership computers due to the following; Extreme levels of parallelism due to multicore processors; An increase in system fault rates requiring algorithms to be resilient beyond just checkpoint/restart; Complex memory hierarchies and costly data movement in both energy and performance; Heterogeneous system architectures (mixing CPUs, GPUs,more » etc.); and Conflicting goals of performance, resilience, and power requirements.« less

[Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

PubMed

Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

2016-01-01

Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

Cascading disasters in the huge coastal aquifer of Salento (Apulia region, Southern Italy) ensuing droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parisi, Alessandro; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores

2017-04-01

Physical extremes can be distinguished in "sudden physical extremes" (e.g. earthquakes, tsunami) and "progressive physical extremes" (e.g. drought, desertification, landslides). They differ for frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of occurrence. If a physical extreme, by interacting with human systems, induces negative consequences, its outcome can be a "disaster". The disasters are, in both above cases, characterized by a few phases: physical extreme occurrence, emergency, response, and recovery. However, in the case of a progressive physical extreme, the disaster develops with an overlap in the time of the above-mentioned phases. When the events are repetitive, the emergency planning (which follows a cycle) succeeds with preparedness and mitigation with the intent of reducing the risk. Both the sudden and progressive physical extremes produce cascading effects of consequences on social, environmental and economic systems. Disasters consequent to sudden and progressive extremes show, however, some differences, mainly attributable to the "visibility" of the effects and to their time scale of evolution. As matter of fact, a disaster consequent to a progressive physical extreme produces "emerging signals" that are often invisible. Moreover, the emergency phase can arise with a time delay compared to the occurrence of the physical extreme, depending on the spatial scale of impacted system. The above differences allow defining "creeping disasters" the potential disasters related to progressive physical extremes. This study deals with some peculiar "cascading disasters" consequent to drought, which is the main "creeping disaster", namely the groundwater drought and the consequent salinization of coastal aquifers. In regional flow systems, their effects are invisible in the immediate to common people (and often even to managers) because of the concealed nature of groundwater; moreover, they are difficult to assess because of the shift over time of their evolution compared to the promptness of surface effects. The study area is the Salento coastal karstic aquifer (Apulia region, Southern Italy), where the groundwater flows according to a regional flow system. It has been subject to successive meteorological droughts between 1960 and 2010. The groundwater monitoring performed during this period, even with some gaps, allows identifying time lags between superficial effects and underground system response, potential tipping points, and emerging signals of the cascading disasters.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Erosion in Mediterranean landscapes: Changes and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Ruiz, José M.; Nadal-Romero, Estela; Lana-Renault, Noemí; Beguería, Santiago

2013-09-01

Intense erosion processes are widespread in the Mediterranean region, and include sheet wash erosion, rilling, gullying, shallow landsliding, and the development of large and active badlands in both subhumid and semi-arid areas. This review analyses the main environmental and human features related to soil erosion processes, and the main factors that explain the extreme variability of factors influencing soil erosion, particularly recent land use changes. The importance of erosion in the Mediterranean is related to the long history of human activity in a region characterized by low levels of annual precipitation, the occurrence of intense rainstorms and long-lasting droughts, high evapotranspiration, the presence of steep slopes and the occurrence of recent tectonic activity, together with the recurrent use of fire, overgrazing and farming. These factors have resulted in a complex landscape in which intensification and abandonment, wealth and poverty can co-exist. The changing conditions of national and international markets and the evolution of population pressure are now the main drivers explaining land use changes, including farmland abandonment in mountain areas, the expansion of some subsidized crops to marginal lands, and the development of new terraces affected by landslides and intense soil erosion during extreme rainstorm events. The occurrence of human-related forest fires affecting thousands of hectares each year is a significant problem in both the northern and southern areas of the Mediterranean basin. Here, we highlight the rise of new scientific challenges in controlling the negative consequences of soil erosion in the Mediterranean region: 1) to reduce the effects and extent of forest fires, and restructure the spatial organization of abandoned landscapes; 2) to provide guidance for making the EU agricultural policy more adapted to the complexity and fragility of Mediterranean environments; 3) to develop field methods and models to improve the identification of runoff and sediment contributing areas; 4) to contribute to the conservation of landscapes (i.e. bench-terraced fields) having high cultural and productivity values; 5) to improve knowledge of the hydrological and geomorphological functioning of badlands, with the aim of reducing sediment yield and accessibility; 6) to better understand the effect of climate change on soil erosion in the Mediterranean region; and 7) to improve quantitative information on long-term soil erosion.

Application of data on climate extremes for the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, K. T.; Fleishman, E.; Cayan, D. R.; Daudert, B.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

We are improving the scientific capacity to evaluate responses of natural resources to climate extremes. We also are enhancing a platform for derivation of and access to customized climate information for the full extent or any subset of the southwestern United States. Extreme climate can have substantial effects on species, ecological and evolutionary processes, and the health of visitors to public lands. We are working with federal and state managers and with researchers who collaborate with decision-makers to use data on climate extremes to inform resource management. Current applications include sudden oak death, estuarine management, and fine-resolution manipulation of montane vegetation. To facilitate practical use of data on climate extremes, we are screening global climate models on the basis of their realism in representing natural regional patterns and extremes of temperature and precipitation, including those driven by El Niño and La Niña. We are assessing how well each model represents different climate elements. We also are delivering point and gridded observations and downscaled model projections, all at daily and 6 km resolution, on past and future climate extremes. Additionally, we are using the downscaled outputs to drive a hydrologic model and derive multiple probabilistic measures of water availability, flood, and drought. Moreover, we are extending the capacity of the Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC; wrcc.dri.edu/csc/scenic), a product developed by the Western Regional Climate Center, to provide access to diverse observed and simulated data on regional weather and climate, particularly on extremes.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; ...

2016-07-12

A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averagesmore » over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.« less

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Learning Human Aspects of Collaborative Software Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hadar, Irit; Sherman, Sofia; Hazzan, Orit

2008-01-01

Collaboration has become increasingly widespread in the software industry as systems have become larger and more complex, adding human complexity to the technological complexity already involved in developing software systems. To deal with this complexity, human-centric software development methods, such as Extreme Programming and other agile…

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wasko, C.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J. P.; Sharma, A.

2018-05-01

The spatial extent and organization of extreme storm events has important practical implications for flood forecasting. Recently, conflicting evidence has been found on the observed changes of storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures. To further investigate this question, a regional climate model assessment is presented for the Greater Sydney region, in Australia. Two regional climate models were considered: the first a convection-resolving simulation at 2-km resolution, the second a resolution of 10 km with three different convection parameterizations. Both the 2- and the 10-km resolutions that used the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme simulate decreasing storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures for 1-hr duration precipitation events, consistent with the observation-based study in Australia. However, other observed relationships of extreme rainfall with increasing temperature were not well represented by the models. Improved methods for considering storm organization are required to better understand potential future changes.

Dynamics of water around the complex structures formed between the KH domains of far upstream element binding protein and single-stranded DNA molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chakraborty, Kaushik; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjoy, E-mail: sanjoy@chem.iitkgp.ernet.in

2015-07-28

Single-stranded DNA (ss-DNA) binding proteins specifically bind to the single-stranded regions of the DNA and protect it from premature annealing, thereby stabilizing the DNA structure. We have carried out atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of the aqueous solutions of two DNA binding K homology (KH) domains (KH3 and KH4) of the far upstream element binding protein complexed with two short ss-DNA segments. Attempts have been made to explore the influence of the formation of such complex structures on the microscopic dynamics and hydrogen bond properties of the interfacial water molecules. It is found that the water molecules involved in bridging themore » ss-DNA segments and the protein domains form a highly constrained thin layer with extremely retarded mobility. These water molecules play important roles in freezing the conformational oscillations of the ss-DNA oligomers and thereby forming rigid complex structures. Further, it is demonstrated that the effect of complexation on the slow long-time relaxations of hydrogen bonds at the interface is correlated with hindered motions of the surrounding water molecules. Importantly, it is observed that the highly restricted motions of the water molecules bridging the protein and the DNA components in the complexed forms originate from more frequent hydrogen bond reformations.« less

Interstellar H3+

PubMed Central

Oka, Takeshi

2006-01-01

Protonated molecular hydrogen, H3+, is the simplest polyatomic molecule. It is the most abundantly produced interstellar molecule, next only to H2, although its steady state concentration is low because of its extremely high chemical reactivity. H3+ is a strong acid (proton donor) and initiates chains of ion-molecule reactions in interstellar space thus leading to formation of complex molecules. Here, I summarize the understandings on this fundamental species in interstellar space obtained from our infrared observations since its discovery in 1996 and discuss the recent observations and analyses of H3+ in the Central Molecular Zone near the Galatic center that led to a revelation of a vast amount of warm and diffuse gas existing in the region. PMID:16894171

NASA’s SDO Watches Bursts of Solar Material

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Solar material repeatedly bursts from the sun in this close-up captured on July 9-10, 2016, by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO. The sun is composed of plasma, a gas in which the negative electrons move freely around the positive ions, forming a powerful mix of charged particles. Each burst of plasma licks out from the surface only to withdraw back into the active region – a dance commanded by complex magnetic forces above the sun. SDO captured this video in wavelengths of extreme ultraviolet light, which are typically invisible to our eyes. The imagery is colorized here in red for easy viewing. Credit: NASA/SDO/Goddard Space Flight Center/Joy Ng

A review of biophysical and socio-economic effects of unconventional oil and gas extraction - Implications for South Africa.

PubMed

Esterhuyse, Surina; Avenant, Marinda; Redelinghuys, Nola; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; Williamson, Richard

2016-12-15

The impacts associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction will be cumulative in nature and will most likely occur on a regional scale, highlighting the importance of using strategic decision-making and management tools. Managing possible impacts responsibly is extremely important in a water scarce country such as South Africa, versus countries where more water may be available for UOG extraction activities. This review article explains the possible biophysical and socio-economic impacts associated with UOG extraction within the South African context and how these complex impacts interlink. Relevant policy and governance frameworks to manage these impacts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional differences in the composition of Fusarium Head Blight pathogens and mycotoxins associated with wheat in Mexico.

PubMed

Cerón-Bustamante, Minely; Ward, Todd J; Kelly, Amy; Vaughan, Martha M; McCormick, Susan P; Cowger, Christina; Leyva-Mir, Santos G; Villaseñor-Mir, Héctor E; Ayala-Escobar, Victoria; Nava-Díaz, Cristian

2018-05-20

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a destructive disease of small grain cereals and a major food safety concern. Epidemics result in substantial yield losses, reduction in crop quality, and contamination of grains with trichothecenes and other mycotoxins. A number of different fusaria can cause FHB, and there are significant regional differences in the occurrence and prevalence of FHB pathogen species and their associated mycotoxins. Information on FHB pathogen and mycotoxin diversity in Mexico has been extremely limited, but is needed to improve disease and mycotoxin control efforts. To address this, we used a combination of DNA sequence-based methods and in-vitro toxin analyses to characterize FHB isolates collected from symptomatic wheat in Mexico during the 2013 and 2014 growing seasons. Among 116 Fusarium isolates, we identified five species complexes including nine named Fusarium species and 30 isolates representing unnamed or potentially novel species. Significant regional differences (P < 0.001) in pathogen composition were observed, with F. boothii accounting for >90% of isolates from the Mixteca region in southern Mexico, whereas F. avenaceum and related members of the F. tricinctum species complex (FTSC) accounted for nearly 75% of isolates from the Highlands region in Central Mexico. F. graminearum, which is the dominant FHB pathogen in other parts of North America, was not present among the isolates from Mexico. F. boothii isolates had the 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol toxin type, and some of the minor FHB species produced trichothecenes, such as nivalenol, T-2 toxin and diacetoxyscirpenol. None of the FTSC isolates tested was able to produce trichothecenes, but many produced chlamydosporol and enniatin B. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Recurrent postoperative CRPS I in patients with abnormal preoperative sympathetic function.

PubMed

Ackerman, William E; Ahmad, Mahmood

2008-02-01

A complex regional pain syndrome of an extremity that has previously resolved can recur after repeat surgery at the same anatomic site. Complex regional pain syndrome is described as a disease of the autonomic nervous system. The purpose of this study was to evaluate preoperative and postoperative sympathetic function and the recurrence of complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I) in patients after repeat carpal tunnel surgery. Thirty-four patients who developed CRPS I after initial carpal tunnel releases and required repeat open carpal tunnel surgeries were studied. Laser Doppler imaging (LDI) was used to assess preoperative sympathetic function 5-7 days prior to surgery and to assess postoperative sympathetic function 19-22 days after surgery or 20-22 days after resolution of the CRPS I. Sympathetic nervous system function was prospectively examined by testing reflex-evoked vasoconstrictor responses to sympathetic stimuli recorded with LDI of both hands. Patients were assigned to 1 of 2 groups based on LDI responses to sympathetic provocation. Group I (11 of 34) patients had abnormal preoperative LDI studies in the hands that had prior surgeries, whereas group II (23 of 34) patients had normal LDI studies. Each patient in this study had open repeat carpal tunnel surgery. In group I, 8 of 11 patients had recurrent CRPS I, whereas in group II, 3 of 23 patients had recurrent CRPS I. All of the recurrent CRPS I patients were successfully treated with sympathetic blockade, occupational therapy, and pharmacologic modalities. Repeat LDI after recurrent CRPS I resolution was abnormal in 8 of 8 group I patients and in 1 of 3 group II patients. CRPS I can recur after repeat hand surgery. Our study results may, however, identify those individuals who may readily benefit from perioperative therapies. Prognostic I.

Risk Factors for Post-treatment Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): An Analysis of 647 Cases of CRPS from the Danish Patient Compensation Association.

PubMed

Petersen, Pelle B; Mikkelsen, Kim L; Lauritzen, Jes B; Krogsgaard, Michael R

2018-03-01

Complex regional pain syndrome is a challenging condition that includes a broad spectrum of sensory, autonomic, and motor features predominantly in extremities recovering from a trauma. Few large-scale studies have addressed occurrence of and factors associated with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) following orthopedic treatment. The present study aimed to identify factors associated with post-treatment development of CRPS. Using the Danish Patient Compensation Association's database, we identified 647 patients claiming post-treatment CRPS between 1992 and 2015. Age, gender, initial diagnosis, treatment, and amount of compensation were extracted. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify variables associated with approval of the claim. For carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) patients, we registered whether symptoms were bilateral or unilateral and if neurophysiology prior to treatment was pathologic. The following ratios were found: women:men was 4:1, primary diagnosis to the upper limb:lower limb was 2.5:1, and surgical:nonsurgical treatment was 3:1. Mean age was 47.5 ± 13.7 years, and no intergender difference was detected. Antebrachial fracture (23%) and CTS (9%) were the most common primary conditions. Surgical treatment was associated with approval of the claim (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 5.3; P < 0.001). Half of CTS patients had normal neurophysiology prior to surgery; among patients with unilateral symptoms, 71.4% had normal neurophysiology. Female gender, surgical treatment, and treatment to the upper limb were risk factors. Elective surgery accounted for a large number of post-treatment CRPS patients. In CTS patients developing CRPS, normal neurophysiological examination findings were common, and it could be suspected that these patients were suffering from an pre-clinical stage of CRPS, not CTS. © 2017 World Institute of Pain.

Stretching of Hot Lithosphe: A Significant Mode of Crustal Stretching in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Montserrat Navarro, A.; Morgan, J. P.; Hall, R.; White, L. T.

2017-12-01

SE Asia roughly covers roughly 15% of the Earth's surface and represents one of the most tectonically active regions in the world, yet its tectonic evolution remains relatively poorly studied and constrained in comparison with other regions. Recent episodes of extension have been associated with sedimentary basin growth and phases of crustal melting, uplift and extremely rapid exhumation of young (<7Ma) metamorphic core complexes. This is recorded by seismic imagery of basins offshore Sulawesi and New Guinea as well as through new field studies of the onshore geology in these regions. A growing body of new geochronological and biostratigraphic data provides some control on the rates of processes. We use two-dimensional numerical models to investigate the evolution of the distinctive extensional basins in SE Asia. Our models suggest that, at the onset of stretching, the lithosphere was considerably hotter than in more typically studied rift settings (e.g. Atlantic opening, East African Rift, Australia-Antarctica opening). High Moho temperatures are key in shaping the architecture of the stretched lithosphere: A) hot and week lower crust fails to transmit the stress and brittle deformation, thus resulting in a strong decoupling between crust and lithospheric mantle; B) the mode of deformation is dominated by the ductile flow and boudinage of lower crust, yielding the exhumation of one-to-several partially molten lower crustal bodies, including metamorphic core complexes; C) continental break-up is often inhibited by the ductile behaviour of the crust, and it is only achieved after considerable cooling of the lithosphere. To better constrain the extension rates in which these basins formed, we compare P-T and cooling paths of lower crustal material in a suite of models with newly available data from the Palu and Malino metamorphic core complexes in Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Jared, Alissa; Mahat, Vinod

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitationmore » intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.« less

Study of Environmental Data Complexity using Extreme Learning Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The main goals of environmental data science using machine learning algorithm deal, in a broad sense, around the calibration, the prediction and the visualization of hidden relationship between input and output variables. In order to optimize the models and to understand the phenomenon under study, the characterization of the complexity (at different levels) should be taken into account. Therefore, the identification of the linear or non-linear behavior between input and output variables adds valuable information for the knowledge of the phenomenon complexity. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when identifying the complexity (linear/non-linear) of environmental data using machine learning algorithm. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of a self-consistent methodology for the use of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. By applying two ELM models (with linear and non-linear activation functions) and by comparing their efficiency, quantification of the linearity can be evaluated. The considered approach is accompanied by simulated and real high dimensional and multivariate data case studies. In conclusion, the current challenges and future development in complexity quantification using environmental data mining are discussed. References - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

The future of nearshore processes research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elko, Nicole A.; Feddersen, Falk; Foster, Diane; Hapke, Cheryl J.; McNinch, Jesse E.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Tuba Ӧzkan-Haller, H.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Raubenheimer, Britt

2014-01-01

The nearshore is the transition region between land and the continental shelf including (from onshore to offshore) coastal plains, wetlands, estuaries, coastal cliffs, dunes, beaches, surf zones (regions of wave breaking), and the inner shelf (Figure ES-1). Nearshore regions are vital to the national economy, security, commerce, and recreation. The nearshore is dynamically evolving, is often densely populated, and is under increasing threat from sea level rise, long-term erosion, extreme storms, and anthropogenic influences. Worldwide, almost one billion people live at elevations within 10 m of present sea level. Long-term erosion threatens communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and habitat. Extreme storms can cause billions of dollars of damage. Degraded water quality impacts ecosystem and human health. Nearshore processes, the complex interactions between water, sediment, biota, and humans, must be understood and predicted to manage this often highly developed yet vulnerable nearshore environment. Over the past three decades, the understanding of nearshore processes has improved. However, societal needs are growing with increased coastal urbanization and threats of future climate change, and significant scientific challenges remain. To address these challenges, members of academia, industry, and federal agencies (USGS, USACE, NPS, NOAA, FEMA, ONR) met at the “The Past and Future of Nearshore Processes Research: Reflections on the Sallenger Years and a New Vision for the Future” workshop to develop a nearshore processes research vision where societal needs and science challenges intersect. The resulting vision is comprised of three broad research themes: Long-term coastal evolution due to natural and anthropogenic processes: As global climate change alters the rates of sea level rise and potentially storm patterns and coastal urbanization increases over the coming decades, an understanding of coastal evolution is critical. Improved knowledge of long-term morphological, ecological, and societal processes and their interactions will result in an improved ability to simulate coastal change. This will enable proactive solutions for resilient coasts and better guidance for reducing coastal vulnerability.Extreme Events: Flooding, erosion, and the subsequent recovery: Hurricane Sandy caused flooding and erosion along hundreds of miles of shoreline, flooded New York City, and impacted communities and infrastructure. Overall U.S. coastal extreme event related economic losses have increased substantially. Furthermore, climate change may cause an increase in coastal extreme events and rising sea levels could increase the occurrence of extreme events. Addressing this research theme will result in an improved understanding of the physical processes during extreme events, leading to improved models of flooding, erosion, and recovery. The resulting societal benefit will be more resilient coastal communities.The physical, biological and chemical processes impacting human and ecosystem health: Nearshore regions are used for recreation, tourism, and human habitation, and provide habitat and valuable ecosystem services. These areas must be sustained for future generations, however overall coastal water quality is declining due to microbial pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metal contamination, threatening ecosystem and human health. To ensure sustainable nearshore regions, predictive real-time water- and sediment-based based pollutant modeling capabilities must be developed, which requires expanding our knowledge of the physics, chemistry, and biology of the nearshore. The resulting societal benefits will include better beach safety, healthier ecosystems, and improved mitigation and regulatory policies.The scientists and engineers of the U.S. nearshore community are poised to make significant progress on these research themes, which have significant societal impact. The U.S. nearshore community, including academic, government, and industry colleagues, recommends multi-agency investment into a coordinated development of observational and modeling research infrastructure to address these themes, as discussed in the whitepaper. The observational infrastructure should include development of new sensors and methods, focused observational programs, and expanded nearshore observing systems. The modeling infrastructure should include improved process representation, better model coupling, incorporation of data assimilation techniques, and testing of real-time models. The observations will provide test beds to compare and improve models.

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Mailhot, Alain; Brown, Ross; Chaumont, Diane

2018-03-01

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and GMFD) are also included in the evaluation to assess their potential for RCM evaluation in data sparse regions. The study evaluated the means and annual anomaly distributions of indices over the 1980-2004 dataset overlap period. The results showed that RCM and reanalysis performance varied with the climate variables being evaluated. Most RCMs and reanalyses were able to simulate well climate indices related to mean air temperature and hot extremes over most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of the Yukon region where models displayed the largest biases related to topographic effects. Overall performance was generally poor for indices related to cold extremes. Likewise, only a few RCM simulations and reanalyses were able to provide realistic simulations of precipitation extreme indicators. The multi-reanalysis ensemble provided superior results to individual datasets for climate indicators related to mean air temperature and hot extremes, but not for other indicators. These results support the use of reanalyses as reference datasets for the evaluation of RCM mean air temperature and hot extremes over northern Canada, but not for cold extremes and precipitation indices.

Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

2016-06-01

Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. Additionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climatological vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Influences of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on warm season temperature and crop yields in the southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

Despite advancements in agricultural technology, agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to extreme meteorological conditions. This study has found significant impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme temperatures and in turn on crop yields in the Southwestern United States (SW US) region. Analyses of multi-year data of observed temperatures and simulated maize yields reveal that NAO affects positively the daily temperature maxima and minima in the green-up periods (March-June) and that the response of maize yields to NAO varies according to the climatological mean temperatures. In warmer regions, a combination of above-normal NAO in the planting periods and below-normal NAO in the growing periods is favorable for high maize yields by reducing extremely cold days during the planting periods and extremely hot days in the later periods, respectively. In colder regions, continuously above-normal NAO conditions favor higher yields via above normal thermal conditions. Results in this study suggest that NAO predictions can benefit agricultural planning in SW US.

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.

PubMed

Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-13

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Study of Pure Proteins, Nucleic Acids and Their Complexes from Halobacteria of the Dead Sea: RNA Polymerase-DNA Interaction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-21

objectives of our program are to isolate and characterize a fully active DNA dependent RNA polymerase from the extremely halophilic archaebacteria of the genus...operons in II. Marismortui. The halobacteriaceae are extreme halophiles . They require 3.5 M NaCI for optimal growth an(l no growth is observed below 2...was difficutlt to perform due to the extreme genetic instability in this strain (6). In contrast, the genoine of the extreme halophilic and prototrophic

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus

2017-01-01

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a dry region of the globe. For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade-1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade-1 (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade-1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.

Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

2015-12-01

It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci

PubMed Central

Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D.; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M.; Proud, William G.; Brown, Katherine A.; Bull, Anthony M. J.; Clasper, Jon C.

2011-01-01

The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies. PMID:21149353

Insight into a novel p53 single point mutation (G389E) by Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Pirolli, Davide; Carelli Alinovi, Cristiana; Capoluongo, Ettore; Satta, Maria Antonia; Concolino, Paola; Giardina, Bruno; De Rosa, Maria Cristina

2010-12-30

The majority of inactivating mutations of p53 reside in the central core DNA binding domain of the protein. In this computational study, we investigated the structural effects of a novel p53 mutation (G389E), identified in a patient with congenital adrenal hyperplasia, which is located within the extreme C-terminal domain (CTD) of p53, an unstructured, flexible region (residues 367-393) of major importance for the regulation of the protein. Based on the three-dimensional structure of a carboxyl-terminal peptide of p53 in complex with the S100B protein, which is involved in regulation of the tumor suppressor activity, a model of wild type (WT) and mutant extreme CTD was developed by molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulation. It was found that the G389E amino acid replacement has negligible effects on free p53 in solution whereas it significantly affects the interactions of p53 with the S100B protein. The results suggest that the observed mutation may interfere with p53 transcription activation and provide useful information for site-directed mutagenesis experiments.

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Temporal development of extreme precipitation in Germany projected by EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendel, Christoph; Deutschländer, Thomas

2017-04-01

A sustainable operation of transport infrastructure requires an enhanced resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change and related extreme meteorological events. To meet this challenge, the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) commenced a comprehensive national research program on safe and sustainable transport in Germany. A network of departmental research institutes addresses the "Adaptation of the German transport infrastructure towards climate change and extreme events". Various studies already have identified an increase in the average global precipitation for the 20th century. There is some indication that these increases are most visible in a rising frequency of precipitation extremes. However, the changes are highly variable between regions and seasons. With a further increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, the likelihood of occurrence of such extreme events will continue to rise. A kernel estimator has been used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the temporal development of extreme precipitation events projected by an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations. The kernel estimator measures the intensity of the poisson point process indicating temporal changes in the frequency of extreme events. Extreme precipitation events were selected using the peaks over threshold (POT) method with the 90th, 95th and 99th quantile of daily precipitation sums as thresholds. Application of this non-parametric approach with relative thresholds renders the use of a bias correction non-mandatory. In addition, in comparison to fitting an extreme value theory (EVT) distribution, the method is completely unsusceptible to outliers. First results show an overall increase of extreme precipitation events for Germany until the end of the 21st century. However, major differences between seasons, quantiles and the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) have been identified. For instance, the frequency of extreme precipitation events more than triples in the most extreme scenario. Regional differences are rather small with the largest increase in northern Germany, particularly in coastal regions and the weakest increase in the most southern parts of Germany.

Natural Hazards Education in the Himalayan Region of Ladakh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

2015-04-01

Here we present a review of a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. This project: (i) delivered a geoscience education programme, in conjunction with a range of local and international partners, to multiple schools in the region; (ii) utilised interactive demonstrations to teach students about the key physical dynamics of landslides and earthquakes; and (iii) integrated aspects of physical and social science within the teaching, to give students a holistic understanding of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. In total three programmes were delivered, to a range of different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds. This presentation will particularly highlight (i) the importance of delivering material in a culturally appropriate way, (ii) challenges regarding the sustainability of delivering high quality geoscience education projects, and (iii) ways in which geoscience education outreach can be mainstreamed into overseas research visits.

Extreme Environments: The Ghetto and the South Pole.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierce, Chester M.

Extreme environments, such as polar regions or space crafts, provide an analogue for speculations concerning the needs of, educational provisions for, and environmental impacts on ghetto youth in kindergarten through the third grade. This discussion first centers on the common qualities of an extreme environment (whether exotic or mundane): forced…

Characterisation of the heterogeneity of karst using electrical geophysics - applications in SW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binley, A. M.; Cheng, Q.; Tao, M.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

The southwest China karst region is one of the largest globally continuous karst areas. The great (structural, hydrological and geochemical) complexity of karstic environments and their rapidly evolving nature make them extremely vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic processes/activities. Characterising the location and properties of structures within the karst critical zone, and understanding how the landform is evolving is essential for the mitigation and adaption to locally- and globally-driven changes. Because of the specific nature of karst geology and geomorphology in the humid tropics and subtropics, spatial heterogeneity is high, evidenced by specific landforms features. Such heterogeneity leads to a high dynamic variability of hydrological processes in space and time, along with a complex exchange of surface water and groundwater. Investigating karst hydrogeological features is extremely challenging because of the three-dimensional nature of the system. Observations from boreholes can vary significantly over several metres, making conventional aquifer investigative methods limited. Geophysical methods have emerged as potentially powerful tools for hydrogeological investigations. Geophysical surveys can help to obtain more insight into the complex conduit networks and depth of weathering, both of which can provide quantitative information about the hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics of the system, in addition to providing a better understanding of how critical zone structures have been established and how the landscape is evolving. We present here results from recent geophysical field campaigns in SW China. We illustrate the effectiveness of electrical methods for mapping soil infil in epikarst and report results from field-based investigations along hillslope and valley transects. Our results reveal distinct zones of relatively high electrical conductivity to depths of tens of metres, which we attribute to localised increased fracture density. We discuss how such surveys can be used alongside other investigative techniques to help improve our understanding of the structure and function of this complex subsurface environment.

Radical formation, chemical processing, and explosion of interstellar grains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, J. M.

1976-01-01

The ultraviolet radiation in interstellar space is shown to create a sufficient steady-state density of free radicals in the grain mantle material consisting of oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen to satisfy the critical condition for initiation of chain reactions. The criterion for minimum critical particle size for maintaining the chain reaction is of the order of the larger grain sizes in a distribution satisfying the average extinction and polarization measures. The triggering of the explosion of interstellar grains leading to the ejection of complex interstellar molecules is shown to be most probable where the grains are largest and where radiation is suddenly introduced; i.e., in regions of new star formation. Similar conditions prevail at the boundaries between very dark clouds and H II regions. When the energy released by the chemical activity of the free radicals is inadequate to explode the grain, the resulting mantle material must consist of extremely large organic molecules which are much more resistant to the hostile environment of H II regions than the classical dirty-ice mantles made up of water, methane, and ammonia.

Catalogue of Diptera of Colombia: an introduction.

PubMed

Wolff, Marta; Nihei, Silvio S; Carvalho, Claudio J B De

2016-06-14

Colombia has an imposing natural wealth due to its topography has many unique characteristics as a consequence of having Caribbean and Pacific shores, as well as sharing part of the Amazon basin and northern Andes mountains. Thus, many natural and biological features are due to the convergence of three biogeographical regions: Pacific, Andes and Amazonia. The Andean uplift created a complex mosaic of mountains and isolated valleys, including eleven biogeographical provinces (Morrone 2006). The Andes dominate the Colombian topography and cross the country south to north. There are three mountain ranges (Western, Central, and Eastern) with a maximum elevation of 5,775 m, and an average elevation of 2,000 m. The Magdalena and Cauca River valleys separate these ranges, that along with the Putumayo and Caquetá Rivers, the Catatumbo watershed, the Darién, Pique Hill, the Orinoquia Region (with its savannas), the Amazon region (with tropical rainforests), and some lower mountain ranges (Macarena and Chiribiquete), have generated the conditions for very high levels of endemism. This variety of conditions has resulted in an extremely diverse plant and animal biota, and in which 48% of the nation remains unexplored.

Stranger in a Strange Land: Using Heterotopic Transplantations to Study Nature vs Nurture in Brain Development.

PubMed

Petros, Timothy J

2018-01-01

The mammalian brain develops from a simple sheet of neuroepithelial cells into an incredibly complex structure containing billions of neurons with trillions of synapses. Understanding how intrinsic genetic programs interact with environmental cues to generate neuronal diversity and proper connectivity is one of the most daunting challenges in developmental biology. We recently explored this issue in forebrain GABAergic inhibitory interneurons, an extremely diverse population of neurons that are classified into distinct subtypes based on morphology, neurochemical markers, and electrophysiological properties. Immature interneurons were harvested from one brain region and transplanted into a different region, allowing us to assess how challenging cells in a new environment affected their fate. Do these grafted cells adopt characteristics of the host environment or retain features from the donor environment? We found that the proportion of interneuron subgroups is determined by the host region, but some interneuron subtypes maintain features attributable to the donor environment. In this commentary, I expound on potential mechanisms that could underlie these observations and explore the implications of these findings in a greater context of developmental neuroscience.

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Capacity building for hydrological change - using a blended learning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacken, H.

2015-04-01

Extreme hydrological events have always been a challenge to societies. There is growing evidence that hydrological extremes have already become more severe in some regions. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized as one of the world's most water-scarce and driest regions, with a high dependency on climate-sensitive agriculture. There is an urgent need for capacity building programmes that prepare water professionals and communities to deal with the expected hydrological changes and extremes. The most successful capacity building programmes are the country driven ones which involve a wide range of national stakeholders, have a high degree of in-country ownership and have an applicability character. The method of choice to set up such capacity building programmes will be through blended learning.

Is magnetic topology important for heating the solar atmosphere?

PubMed

Parnell, Clare E; Stevenson, Julie E H; Threlfall, James; Edwards, Sarah J

2015-05-28

Magnetic fields permeate the entire solar atmosphere weaving an extremely complex pattern on both local and global scales. In order to understand the nature of this tangled web of magnetic fields, its magnetic skeleton, which forms the boundaries between topologically distinct flux domains, may be determined. The magnetic skeleton consists of null points, separatrix surfaces, spines and separators. The skeleton is often used to clearly visualize key elements of the magnetic configuration, but parts of the skeleton are also locations where currents and waves may collect and dissipate. In this review, the nature of the magnetic skeleton on both global and local scales, over solar cycle time scales, is explained. The behaviour of wave pulses in the vicinity of both nulls and separators is discussed and so too is the formation of current layers and reconnection at the same features. Each of these processes leads to heating of the solar atmosphere, but collectively do they provide enough heat, spread over a wide enough area, to explain the energy losses throughout the solar atmosphere? Here, we consider this question for the three different solar regions: active regions, open-field regions and the quiet Sun. We find that the heating of active regions and open-field regions is highly unlikely to be due to reconnection or wave dissipation at topological features, but it is possible that these may play a role in the heating of the quiet Sun. In active regions, the absence of a complex topology may play an important role in allowing large energies to build up and then, subsequently, be explosively released in the form of a solar flare. Additionally, knowledge of the intricate boundaries of open-field regions (which the magnetic skeleton provides) could be very important in determining the main acceleration mechanism(s) of the solar wind. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parris, A. S.

2014-12-01

In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster existing partnerships, but also impact trust developed through engagement. Examining other partnership-driven science initiatives, such as Digital Coast or NIDIS, can help identify critical elements of governance and network management that could be applied to the regional climate programs.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

2018-01-01

Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of <2 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of the involved regions as Zhanjiang, Maoming, Guangzhou and Huizhou; and the belt with an accumulated chilling of 8-16 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of Shaoguan and Meizhou. Meanwhile, the drought days decreased, the belt with drought days ≥50 included the major geographic parts of Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and the belt with drought days <50 included the major geographic parts of Shaoguan. The typical case of the extreme disasters showed that the extreme chilling injury and drought in the main producing regions should not be overlooked. Maoming, Huizhou and Meizhou were at higher risk of extreme chilling injury, followed by Shaoguan and Guangzhou. Zhanjiang and Maoming faced the highest risk of extreme drought, Huizhou and Guangzhou took the second place, Shaoguan and Meizhou went last. During 1997-2015, the heat of winter season increased significantly, the trend of chilling and drought decreased, however, the extreme disasters occurred frequently and the risks were higher in winter production areas. It was suggested that the winter planting should be closely integrated with climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

Energy and the agroeconomic complexity of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios

2016-04-01

Since the Industrial Revolution, modern agriculture has transformed from a net energy supplier to a net energy user, via the extensive use fossil fuels -that substituted solar energy inputs- and petroleum derivative products (fertilizers) (Pimentel and Pimentel 2008; Woods et al. 2010). This condenses a significant overview of agricultural energetics, especially for economies set on their first stage of development, growth and economic diversification, such as Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the Blue Nile's most upstream country, constituting a very sensitive hydroclimatic area. Since 2008, Ethiopian agriculture experiences a boost in energy use and agricultural value-added per worker, due to the rapid introduction of oil-fueled agricultural machinery that increased productivity and allowed crop diversification. Agriculture in Ethiopia accounts for ~82% of its total exports, ~45% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and ~75% of its total labor force. In addition, Ethiopia's agricultural sector is equipped with a set of new financial tools to deal with hydroclimatic extremes, like the 1983-85 droughts that deteriorated its crop output, causing a devastating famine. In fact, Ethiopia's resilience from the (most) recent drought (2015-16) has been remarkable. These facts signify that Ethiopia satisfies the necessary conditions to become a regional agritrade gravity center in the Blue Nile, granted that the dispersion of agricultural trade comprises a primary tool for securing food supply. As gravity equations have been used to model global trade webs (Tinbergen 1962), similar principles may apply to agritrade as well, for identifying emergent topological structures and supply chains. By examining the relation between energy inputs in agriculture with crop diversification and value-added chains of Ethiopia's agritrade, we could extract accurate information on the importance of energy for the country's agroeconomic complexity and regionalization trend across its first stages of development. Via the use of entropy we may identify patterns of agritrade agglomeration or dispersal; alternatively study the continuity or fragmentation of Ethiopia's agritrade gravity field. Agglomeration towards Ethiopian agricultural supply would indicate the upgrade of the country's supply stability and -therefore- importance in the global agritrade web. Keywords: Industrial Revolution, net energy, diversification, Blue Nile, hydroclimatic extremes, agritrade, gravity, value-added, complexity, regionalization, entropy References 1. Tinbergen, J. (1962), Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York 2. Pimentel, David and Marcia H. Pimentel (2008), Food, Energy and Society (3rd Ed.), CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group 3. Woods, Jeremy et al. (2010), Energy and the food system, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365, 2991-3006

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Variability of extreme rainfall over La Plata Basin and Amazon Basin in South America in model simulations of the 20th century and projections under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.

2011-12-01

The two largest river basins in South America are Amazon Basin (AMB) in the tropical region and La Plata Basin (LPB) in subtropical and extratropical regions. Extreme droughts have occurred during this decade in Amazonia region which have affected the transportation, fishing activities with impacts in the local population, and also affecting the forest. Droughts or floods over LPB have impacts on agriculture, hydroelectricity power and social life. Therefore, monthly wet and dry extremes in these two regions have a profound effect on the economy and society. Observed rainfall over Amazon Basin (AMB) and La Plata Basin (LPB) is analyzed in monthly timescale using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), from 1979 to 1999. This period is taken to compare GPCP data with HADCM3 simulations (Hadley Centre) of the 20th century and to analyze reanalyses data which have the contribution of satellite information after 1979. HADCM3 projections using SRES A2 scenario is analyzed in two periods: 2000 to 2020 and 2079 to 2099 to study the extremes frequency in a near future and in a longer timescale. Extreme, severe and moderate cases are identified in the northern and southern sectors of LPB and in the western and eastern sectors of AMB. The main objective is to analyze changes in the frequency of cases, considering the global warming and the associated mechanisms. In the observations for the 20th century, the number of extreme rainy cases is higher than the number of dry cases in both sectors of LPB and AMB. The model simulates this variability in the two sectors of LPB and in the west sector of AMB. In the near future 2000 to 2020 the frequency of wet and dry extremes does not change much in LPB and in the western sector of AMB, but the wet cases increase in the eastern AMB. However, in the period of 2079 to 2099 the projections indicate increase of wet cases in LPB and increase of dry cases in AMB. The influence of large scale features related to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Walker and Hadley circulations, teleconnections, as well as the regional features related to humidity flux are discussed. The extreme droughts of 2005 and 2010 in Amazonia are show to be related to these features.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed in this analysis, preliminary results from the development of a flexible categorization scheme, that scales with grid resolution, are presented.

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Multiple origins of elytral reticulation modifications in the west palearctic Agabus bipustulatus complex (coleoptera, dytiscidae).

PubMed

Drotz, Marcus K; Brodin, Tomas; Nilsson, Anders N

2010-02-03

The Agabus bipustulatus complex includes one of Europe's most widely distributed and common diving beetles. This complex, which is known for its large morphological variation, has a complex demographic and altitudinal variation in elytral reticulation. The various depth of the reticulation imprint, both in smaller and larger meshes, results in both mat and shiny individuals, as well as intermediate forms. The West Palearctic lowland is inhabited by a sexually dimorphic form, with shiny males and mat females. In mountain regions, shiny individuals of both sexes are found intermixed with mat individuals or in pure populations in central and southern areas, whereas pure populations of mat individuals are exclusively found in the northern region at high altitude. Sexual selection is proposed as a driving force in shaping this variation. However, the occurrence of different types of reticulation in both sexes and disjunct geographical distribution patterns suggest an additional function of the reticulation. Here we investigate the phylogeographical history, genetic structure and reticulation variation of several named forms within the Agabus bipustulatus complex including A. nevadensis. The molecular analyses recognised several well-supported clades within the complex. Several of the named forms had two or more independent origins. Few south European populations were uniform in reticulation patterns, and the males were found to display large variation. Reticulation diversity and population genetic variability were clearly correlated to altitude, but no genetic differences were detected among populations with mixed or homogenous forms. Observed reduction in secondary reticulation in female and increased variance in male at high altitude in South Europe may be explained by the occurrence of an additional selective force, beside sexual selection. The combined effect of these selective processes is here demonstrated in an extreme case to generate isolation barriers between populations at high altitudes. Here we discuss this selective force in relation to thermal selection.

Segmentation of bone and soft tissue regions in digital radiographic images of extremities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakin, S. Kubilay; Gaborski, Roger S.; Barski, Lori L.; Foos, David H.; Parker, Kevin J.

2001-07-01

This paper presents an algorithm for segmentation of computed radiography (CR) images of extremities into bone and soft tissue regions. The algorithm is a region-based one in which the regions are constructed using a growing procedure with two different statistical tests. Following the growing process, tissue classification procedure is employed. The purpose of the classification is to label each region as either bone or soft tissue. This binary classification goal is achieved by using a voting procedure that consists of clustering of regions in each neighborhood system into two classes. The voting procedure provides a crucial compromise between local and global analysis of the image, which is necessary due to strong exposure variations seen on the imaging plate. Also, the existence of regions whose size is large enough such that exposure variations can be observed through them makes it necessary to use overlapping blocks during the classification. After the classification step, resulting bone and soft tissue regions are refined by fitting a 2nd order surface to each tissue, and reevaluating the label of each region according to the distance between the region and surfaces. The performance of the algorithm is tested on a variety of extremity images using manually segmented images as gold standard. The experiments showed that our algorithm provided a bone boundary with an average area overlap of 90% compared to the gold standard.

Atmospheric Extremes in a Changing Climate: A Strategy for Improved Understanding Driven by International Security Concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. B.; Kao, C. J.

2001-05-01

The overarching mission of Los Alamos National Laboratory is to use science and technology to reduce nuclear danger. In the complex multipolar reality of the post cold-war era, this core mission is naturally enlarged to include all weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, and biological) as well as acts of terrorism. Traditionally, LANL and other institutions in the DOE weapons complex pay little attention to the reasons a country or group of individuals chooses the road of proliferation. That is considered a ``soft'' science at best and, at any rate, is left to other government agencies, their non-governmental and their international partners. However, this division-of-labor overlooks an area of challenging science where DOE laboratories such as LANL, in partnership with academia, can offer valuable insight into a sensitive ``trigger'' in the proliferation process. Indeed, a population subjected to catastrophic environmental degradation becomes far more likely to endorse a proliferant regime or spawn terrorist groups simply because it has little more to lose. Once physical health and economic survival is in jeopardy, whole populations and individuals alike become desperate. This situation is more easily exploited politically than remedied through international aid, especially when the region is already volatile. Scenarios of political de-stabilization due to environmental degradation become even more likely when reminded that the planet is gradually warming and, quite possibly, this trend in the mean will drive changes in extreme weather patterns, quite possibly, for the worse in terms of intensity, duration and frequency. Of the long list of natural disasters that threaten populations and infrastructure, most involve the atmosphere, largely because it is the least inert (hence most turbulent) of the geophysical fluids. Furthermore, the dominant nonlinear response in a complex socio-environmental system is generically not to a change in the mean, but to a critical threshold crossing. So extreme atmospheric phenomena are of the essence yet they are poorly understood, even in a steady climate, because they challenge both dynamical modelers and statisticians. The authors will describe a preliminary proposal to harness some of the unique human, computational and observational resources at LANL that could lead to a significant breakthrough in our understanding of extreme weather mechanisms and how they relate to climate and climate change. If implemented, this program could open new relationships between the laboratory and presently unsuspecting client-agencies such as FEMA, CDC, EPA, State Department, and so on.

Extreme precipitation in WRF during the Newcastle East Coast Low of 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, James B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Ekström, Marie; Ji, Fei

2016-08-01

In the context of regional downscaling, we study the representation of extreme precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on a major event that occurred on the 8th of June 2007 along the coast of eastern Australia (abbreviated "Newy"). This was one of the strongest extra-tropical low-pressure systems off eastern Australia in the last 30 years and was one of several storms comprising a test bed for the WRF ensemble that underpins the regional climate change projections for eastern Australia (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project, NARCliM). Newy provides an informative case study for examining precipitation extremes as simulated by WRF set up for regional downscaling. Here, simulations from the NARCliM physics ensemble of Newy available at ˜10 km grid spacing are used. Extremes and spatio-temporal characteristics are examined using land-based daily and hourly precipitation totals, with a particular focus on hourly accumulations. Of the different physics schemes assessed, the cumulus and the boundary layer schemes cause the largest differences. Although the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme produces better rainfall totals over the entire storm, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme promotes higher and more realistic hourly extreme precipitation totals. Analysis indicates the Kain-Fritsch runs are correlated with larger resolved grid-scale vertical moisture fluxes, which are produced through the influence of parameterized convection on the larger-scale circulation and the subsequent convergence and ascent of moisture. Results show that WRF qualitatively reproduces spatial precipitation patterns during the storm, albeit with some errors in timing. This case study indicates that whilst regional climate simulations of an extreme event such as Newy in WRF may be well represented at daily scales irrespective of the physics scheme used, the representation at hourly scales is likely to be physics scheme dependent.

Toward humanoid robots for operations in complex urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, Jerry E.; Neuhaus, Peter; Johnson, Matthew; Carff, John; Krupp, Ben

2010-04-01

Many infantry operations in urban environments, such as building clearing, are extremely dangerous and difficult and often result in high casualty rates. Despite the fast pace of technological progress in many other areas, the tactics and technology deployed for many of these dangerous urban operation have not changed much in the last 50 years. While robots have been extremely useful for improvised explosive device (IED) detonation, under-vehicle inspection, surveillance, and cave exploration, there is still no fieldable robot that can operate effectively in cluttered streets and inside buildings. Developing a fieldable robot that can maneuver in complex urban environments is challenging due to narrow corridors, stairs, rubble, doors and cluttered doorways, and other obstacles. Typical wheeled and tracked robots have trouble getting through most of these obstacles. A bipedal humanoid is ideally shaped for many of these obstacles because its legs are long and skinny. Therefore it has the potential to step over large barriers, gaps, rocks, and steps, yet squeeze through narrow passageways, and through narrow doorways. By being able to walk with one foot directly in front of the other, humanoids also have the potential to walk over narrow "balance beam" style objects and can cross a narrow row of stepping stones. We describe some recent advances in humanoid robots, particularly recovery from disturbances, such as pushes and walking over rough terrain. Our disturbance recovery algorithms are based on the concept of Capture Points. An N-Step Capture Point is a point on the ground in which a legged robot can step to in order to stop in N steps. The N-Step Capture Region is the set of all N-Step Capture Points. In order to walk without falling, a legged robot must step somewhere in the intersection between an N-Step Capture Region and the available footholds on the ground. We present results of push recovery using Capture Points on our humanoid robot M2V2.

A Weak Solar Burst Submillimeter Only Spectral Component During a GOES M Class Flare: Implications for its Emission Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiani, G. D.; Giménez de Castro, C. G.; Mandrini, C. H.; et al.

2008-09-01

Since the installation of the Submillimeter Solar Radio Telescope, a new spectral burst component was discovered at frequencies above 100 GHz, creating the THz bursts category. In all the reported cases, the events were X class flares and the THz component was increasing with frequency. We report for the first time an M class flare which shows a submillimeter radio spectral component different from the one in microwave classical bursts. Two successive flares of 2 minute duration occurred in active region NOAA 10226 with 2 minutes delay. They started at around 13:15 UT and had an M 6.8 maximum intensity in soft X-rays. The submillimeter flux density from the Solar Submillimeter Telescope (SST) is used in addition to microwave total Sun patrol telescope observations. Images with H filters from the H-alpha Solar Telescope for Argentina (HASTA) and in the extreme UV from the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) are used to characterize the flaring region. An extensive analysis of the magnetic topology evolution is derived from Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetograms and used to constrain the space of solutions for the possible emission mechanisms. The submillimeter component is observed at 212 GHz only. We have upper limits for the emission at 89.4and 405 GHz which are smaller than the observed flux density at 212 GHz. The analysis of the magnetic topology reveals a very compact and complex system of arches that reconnects at a low height, while from the soft X-ray observations we deduce that the flaring area is compact and dense (n=1e12 cm-3). The finding of a submillimeter only burst component in a medium size flare indicates that the phenomenon is more universal than shown until now. The multiwavelength analysis reveals that neither positron synchrotron nor free-free emission could produce the submillimeter component, which is explained here by synchrotron of accelerated electrons in a rather complex and compact magnetic configuration.

Attribution of precipitation changes in African rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Allen, M. R.; Bowery, A.; Imbers, J.; Jones, R.; Massey, N.; Miller, J.; Rosier, S.; Rye, C.; Thurston, M.; Wilson, S.; Yamazaki, H.

2012-04-01

Global climate change is almost certainly affecting the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather and hydrological events. However, whether and to what extend the occurrence of such an event can be attributed to climate change remains a challenge that relies on good observations as well as climate modelling. A number of recent studies have attempted to quantify the role of human influence on climate in observed weather events as e.g. the 2010 Russian heat wave (Dole et al, 2011; Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011; Otto et al, 2012). The overall approach is to simulate, with as realistic a model as possible and accounting as far as possible for modelling uncertainties, both the statistics of observed weather and the statistics of the weather that would have obtained had specific external drivers of climate change been absent. This approach requires a large ensemble size to provide results from which the statistical significance and the shape of the distribution of key variables can be assessed. Also, a sufficiently long period of time must be simulated to evaluate model bias and whether the model captures the observed distribution. The weatherathome.net within the climateprediction.net projects provides such an ensemble with many hundred ensemble members per year via volunteer distributed computing. Most previous attribution studies have been about European extreme weather events but the most vulnerable regions to climate change are in Asia and Africa. One of the most complex hydrological systems is the tropical rainforest, which is expected to react highly sensible to a changing climate. Analysing the weatherathome.net results we find that conditions which are too dry for rainforests to sustain without damages occurred more frequently and more severe in recent years. Furthermore the changes in precipitation in that region can be linked to El Nino/ La Nina events. Linking extreme weather events to large-scale teleconnections helps to understand the occurrence of this events and provides insights for developing forecast methods, also in a region with sparse observational data. We present an important step towards quantifying the link between climate change and extreme weather which is central both to the formulation of evidence-based adaptation policies and to a realistic assessment of the true cost of greenhouse gas emissions, other forms of pollution and land-use change. Dole, R., M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, Xiao-Wei Quan, Taiyi Xu, and D. Murray (2011): Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?, GRL 38:L06702. Otto, F.E.L., N. Massey, R. Jones,G.J. van Oldenborgh, and M. R. Allen (2012): Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave, GRL under revision. Rahmstorf,S., and D. Coumou (2011), Increase of extreme events in a warming world, PNAS early edition.

The Strongest Magnetic Field in Sunspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, J.; Sakurai, T.

2017-12-01

Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic fields on the solar surface. Generally, the strongest magnetic field in each sunspot is located in the dark umbra in most cases. A typical field strength in sunspots is around 3,000 G. On the other hand, some exceptions also have been found in complex sunspots with bright regions such as light bridges that separate opposite polarity umbrae, for instance with a strength of 4,300 G. However, the formation mechanism of such strong fields outside umbrae is still puzzling. Here we report an extremely strong magnetic field in a sunspot, which was located in a bright region sandwiched by two opposite-polarity umbrae. The strength is 6,250 G, which is the largest ever observed since the discovery of magnetic field on the Sun in 1908 by Hale. We obtained 31 scanned maps of the active region observed by Hinode/SOT/SP with a cadence of 3 hours over 5 days (February 1-6, 2014). Considering the spatial and temporal evolution of the vector magnetic field and the Doppler velocity in the bright region, we suggested that this strong field region was generated as a result of compression of one umbra pushed by the outward flow from the other umbra (Evershed flow), like the subduction of the Earth's crust in plate tectonics.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Houze, Robert A.

2017-10-01

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June-September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.

Optimising postoperative pain management in the ambulatory patient.

PubMed

Shang, Allan B; Gan, Tong J

2003-01-01

Over 60% of surgery is now performed in an ambulatory setting. Despite improved analgesics and sophisticated drug delivery systems, surveys indicate that over 80% of patients experience moderate to severe pain postoperatively. Inadequate postoperative pain relief can prolong recovery, precipitate or increase the duration of hospital stay, increase healthcare costs, and reduce patient satisfaction. Effective postoperative pain management involves a multimodal approach and the use of various drugs with different mechanisms of action. Local anaesthetics are widely administered in the ambulatory setting using techniques such as local injection, field block, regional nerve block or neuraxial block. Continuous wound infusion pumps may have great potential in an ambulatory setting. Regional anaesthesia (involving anaesthetising regional areas of the body, including single extremities, multiple extremities, the torso, and the face or jaw) allows surgery to be performed in a specific location, usually an extremity, without the use of general anaesthesia, and potentially with little or no sedation. Opioids remain an important component of any analgesic regimen in treating moderate to severe acute postoperative pain. However, the incorporation of non-opioids, local anaesthetics and regional techniques will enhance current postoperative analgesic regimens. The development of new modalities of treatment, such as patient controlled analgesia, and newer drugs, such as cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitors, provide additional choices for the practitioner. While there are different routes of administration for analgesics (e.g. oral, parenteral, intramuscular, transmucosal, transdermal and sublingual), oral delivery of medications has remained the mainstay for postoperative pain control. The oral route is effective, the simplest to use and typically the least expensive. The intravenous route has the advantages of a rapid onset of action and easier titratibility, and so is recommended for the treatment of acute pain.Non-pharmacological methods for the management of postoperative pain include acupuncture, electromagnetic millimetre waves, hypnosis and the use of music during surgery. However, further research of these techniques is warranted to elucidate their effectiveness in this indication. Pain is a multifactorial experience, not just a sensation. Emotion, perception and past experience all affect an individual's response to noxious stimuli. Improved postoperative pain control through innovation and creativity may improve compliance, ease of delivery, reduce length of hospital stay and improve patient satisfaction. Patient education, early diagnosis of symptoms and aggressive treatment of pain using an integrative approach, combining pharmacotherapy as well as complementary technique, should serve us well in dealing with this complex problem.

A Mesoscale Model-Based Climatography of Nocturnal Boundary-Layer Characteristics over the Complex Terrain of North-Western Utah.

PubMed

Serafin, Stefano; De Wekker, Stephan F J; Knievel, Jason C

Nocturnal boundary-layer phenomena in regions of complex topography are extremely diverse and respond to a multiplicity of forcing factors, acting primarily at the mesoscale and microscale. The interaction between different physical processes, e.g., drainage promoted by near-surface cooling and ambient flow over topography in a statically stable environment, may give rise to special flow patterns, uncommon over flat terrain. Here we present a climatography of boundary-layer flows, based on a 2-year archive of simulations from a high-resolution operational mesoscale weather modelling system, 4DWX. The geographical context is Dugway Proving Ground, in north-western Utah, USA, target area of the field campaigns of the MATERHORN (Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations Program) project. The comparison between model fields and available observations in 2012-2014 shows that the 4DWX model system provides a realistic representation of wind speed and direction in the area, at least in an average sense. Regions displaying strong spatial gradients in the field variables, thought to be responsible for enhanced nocturnal mixing, are typically located in transition areas from mountain sidewalls to adjacent plains. A key dynamical process in this respect is the separation of dynamically accelerated downslope flows from the surface.

A case of complex regional pain syndrome with agnosia for object orientation.

PubMed

Robinson, Gail; Cohen, Helen; Goebel, Andreas

2011-07-01

This systematic investigation of the neurocognitive correlates of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) in a single case also reports agnosia for object orientation in the context of persistent CRPS. We report a patient (JW) with severe long-standing CRPS who had no difficulty identifying and naming line drawings of objects presented in 1 of 4 cardinal orientations. In contrast, he was extremely poor at reorienting these objects into the correct upright orientation and in judging whether an object was upright or not. Moreover, JW made orientation errors when copying drawings of objects, and he also showed features of mirror reversal in writing single words and reading single letters. The findings are discussed in relation to accounts of visual processing. Agnosia for object orientation is the term for impaired knowledge of an object's orientation despite good recognition and naming of the same misoriented object. This defect has previously only been reported in patients with major structural brain lesions. The neuroanatomical correlates are discussed. The patient had no structural brain lesion, raising the possibility that nonstructural reorganisation of cortical networks may be responsible for his deficits. Other patients with CRPS may have related neurocognitive defects. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS/RSD) and neuropathic pain: role of intravenous bisphosphonates as analgesics.

PubMed

Yanow, Jennifer; Pappagallo, Marco; Pillai, Letha

2008-02-25

Neuropathic pain is a sequela of dysfunction, injuries, or diseases of the peripheral and/or central nervous system pain pathways, which has historically been extremely difficult to treat. Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) types 1 and 2 are neuropathic pain conditions that have a long history in the medical literature but whose pathophysiology remains elusive and whose available treatment options remain few. While an exact animal model for CRPS doesn't yet exist, there are several animal models of neuropathic pain that develop behaviors of hypersensitivity, one of the hallmark signs of neuropathic pain in humans. Bisphosphonates have been used for pathologic conditions associated with abnormal bone metabolism, such as osteoporosis, Paget's disease and cancer-related bone pain for many years. More recently, results of clinical trials have indicated the potential role of bisphosphonates in the treatment of CRPS/RSD. In this paper we will review the preclinical studies regarding the use of bisphosphonates as analgesics in animal models of neuropathic pain, and also summarize the clinical trials that have been done to date. We will give an overview of bisphosphonate pharmacology and discuss several potential mechanisms by which bisphosphonates may be analgesic in CRPS/RSD and bone pain of noncancer origin.

How do extreme streamflow due to hurricane IRMA compare during 1938-2017 in South Eastern US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, A.

2017-12-01

The question related to Irma, Harvey, Maria, and other hurricanes is: are hurricane more frequent and intense than they have been in the past. Recent hurricanes were unusually strong hitting the US Coastline or territories as a category 4 or 5, dropping unusually large amounts of precipitation on the affected areas creating extreme high-flow events in rivers and streams in affected areas. The objective of the study is to determine how extreme are streamflows from recent hurricanes (e.g. IRMA) when compared to streamflow's during 1938-2017 time-period. Additionally, in this study, the extreme precipitations are also compared during IRMA. Extreme high flows are selected from Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). They are distributions, timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, pulses, and days of extreme events in rivers of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico Hydrologic Region—03. Streamflow data from 30 stations in the region with at least 79 years of record (1938-2017) are used. Historical precipitation changes is obtained from meta-analysis of published literature. Our preliminary results indicate the extremeness of streamflow from recent hurricanes vary with the IHA indicator selected. Some potential implications of these extreme events on the region's ecosystem are also discussed using causal chains and loops.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

How well can change diagnose the effects of coupling of the Regional Atmosphere on ET of an Irrigated Surface Under Extreme Advection of Heat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The role of imported heat and saturation deficit versus available energy on the energy balance of a cotton field is investigated in a semi-arid region under a range of conditions, including extreme horizontal advection of heat. Using eddy covariance measurements of water vapor fluxes, a modified Pen...

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zahn, Matthias

2018-06-01

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.

A delay differential model of ENSO variability: parametric instability and the distribution of extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaliapin, I.; Ghil, M.; Thompson, S.

2007-12-01

We consider a Delay Differential Equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in the ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. Descriptive and metric stability analyses of the model are performed in a complete 3D space of its physically relevant parameters. Existence of two regimes --- stable and unstable --- is reported. The domains of the regimes are separated by a sharp neutral curve in the parameter space. The detailed structure of the neutral curve become very complicated (possibly fractal), and individual trajectories within the unstable region become highly complex (possibly chaotic) as the atmosphere-ocean coupling increases. In the unstable regime, spontaneous transitions in the mean "temperature" (i.e., thermocline depth), period, and extreme annual values occur, for purely periodic, seasonal forcing. This indicates (via the continuous dependence theorem) the existence of numerous unstable solutions responsible for the complex dynamics of the system. In the stable regime, only periodic solutions are found. Our results illustrate the role of the distinct parameters of ENSO variability, such as strength of seasonal forcing vs. atmosphere ocean coupling and propagation period of oceanic waves across the Tropical Pacific. The model reproduces, among other phenomena, the Devil's bleachers (caused by period locking) documented in other ENSO models, such as nonlinear PDEs and GCMs, as well as in certain observations. We expect such behavior in much more detailed and realistic models, where it is harder to describe its causes as completely.

Explosive Events in the Quiet Sun: Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectroscopy Instrumentation and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rust, Thomas Ludwell

Explosive event is the name given to slit spectrograph observations of high spectroscopic velocities in solar transition region spectral lines. Explosive events show much variety that cannot yet be explained by a single theory. It is commonly believed that explosive events are powered by magnetic reconnection. The evolution of the line core appears to be an important indicator of which particular reconnection process is at work. The Multi-Order Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrograph (MOSES) is a novel slitless spectrograph designed for imaging spectroscopy of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral lines. The spectrograph design forgoes a slit and images instead at three spectral orders of a concave grating. The images are formed simultaneously so the resulting spatial and spectral information is co-temporal over the 20' x 10' instrument field of view. This is an advantage over slit spectrographs which build a field of view one narrow slit at a time. The cost of co-temporal imaging spectroscopy with the MOSES is increased data complexity relative to slit spectrograph data. The MOSES data must undergo tomographic inversion for recovery of line profiles. I use the unique data from the MOSES to study transition region explosive events in the He ii 304 A spectral line. I identify 41 examples of explosive events which include 5 blue shifted jets, 2 red shifted jets, and 10 bi-directional jets. Typical doppler speeds are approximately 100kms-1. I show the early development of one blue jet and one bi-directional jet and find no acceleration phase at the onset of the event. The bi-directional jets are interesting because they are predicted in models of Petschek reconnection in the transition region. I develop an inversion algorithm for the MOSES data and test it on synthetic observations of a bi-directional jet. The inversion is based on a multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique (MART). The inversion successfully reproduces synthetic line profiles. I then use the inversion to study the time evolution of a bi-directional jet. The inverted line profiles show fast doppler shifted components and no measurable line core emission. The blue and red wings of the jet show increasing spatial separation with time.

The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies in the region. Over Africa our analysis shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce fairly well the spatial variability of seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and the associated low-level circulation. However, monsoon flow is over predicted while African Easterly Jet (AEJ) core underestimated and shifted a bit northward. Finally, over Europe the regional model shows a cold bias for most part of the year and a wet bias in winter and spring. Rain frequency is too high especially over the mountainous regions. The spatial patter of the precipitation extreme is well represented in the model although a slight overestimation of the 95, 98 99 percentile is evident.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Extreme Precipitation and Beach Closures in the Great Lakes Region: Evaluating Risk among the Elderly

PubMed Central

Bush, Kathleen F.; Fossani, Cheryl L.; Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Gronlund, Carina J.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Runoff from these extreme events poses threats to water quality and human health. We investigated the impact of extreme precipitation and beach closings on the risk of gastrointestinal illness (GI)-related hospital admissions among individuals 65 and older in 12 Great Lakes cities from 2000 to 2006. Poisson regression models were fit in each city, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. City-specific estimates were combined to form an overall regional risk estimate. Approximately 40,000 GI-related hospital admissions and over 100 beach closure days were recorded from May through September during the study period. Extreme precipitation (≥90th percentile) occurring the previous day (lag 1) is significantly associated with beach closures in 8 of the 12 cities (p < 0.05). However, no association was observed between beach closures and GI-related hospital admissions. These results support previous work linking extreme precipitation to compromised recreational water quality. PMID:24534768

Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

PubMed

Gallego, Alejandro; O'Hara Murray, Rory; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Beegle-Krause, C J; Inall, Mark; Sherwin, Toby; Siddorn, John; Wakelin, Sarah; Vlasenko, Vasyl; Hole, Lars R; Dagestad, Knut Frode; Rees, John; Short, Lucy; Rønningen, Petter; Main, Charlotte E; Legrand, Sebastien; Gutierrez, Tony; Witte, Ursula; Mulanaphy, Nicole

2018-02-01

As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

La, Trang H.; Wolden, Suzanne L.; Rodeberg, David A.

Purpose: To evaluate the incidence and prognostic factors for regional failure, with attention to the in-transit pathways of spread, in children with nonmetastatic rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity. Methods and Materials: The Intergroup rhabdomyosarcoma studies III, IV-Pilot, and IV enrolled 226 children with rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity. Failure at the in-transit (epitrochlear/brachial and popliteal) and proximal (axillary/infraclavicular and inguinal/femoral) lymph nodes was evaluated. The median follow-up for the surviving patients was 10.4 years. Results: Of the 226 children, 55 (24%) had clinical or pathologic evidence of either in-transit and/or proximal lymph node involvement at diagnosis. The actuarial 5-year risk of regionalmore » failure was 12%. The prognostic factors for poor regional control were female gender and lymph node involvement at diagnosis. In the 116 patients with a distal extremity primary tumor, 5% had in-transit lymph node involvement at diagnosis. The estimated 5-year incidences of in-transit and proximal nodal failure was 12% and 8%, respectively. The in-transit failure rate was 0% for patients who underwent radiotherapy and/or underwent lymph node sampling of the in-transit nodal site but was 15% for those who did not (p = .07). However, the 5-year event-free survival rate did not differ between these two groups (64% vs. 55%, respectively, p = .47). Conclusion: The high incidence of regional involvement necessitates aggressive identification and treatment of regional lymph nodes in patients with rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity. In patients with distal extremity tumors, in-transit failures were as common as failures in more proximal regional sites. Patients who underwent complete lymph node staging with appropriate radiotherapy to the in-transit nodal site, if indicated, were at a slightly lower risk of in-transit failure.« less

Determining hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RamezaniZiarani, Maryam; Bookhagen, Bodo; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens; de la Torre, Alejandro; Volkholz, Jan

2017-04-01

The south-central Andes in NW Argentina are characterized by a strong rainfall asymmetry. In the east-west direction exists one of the steepest rainfall gradients on Earth, resulting from the large topographic differences in this region. In addition, in the north-south direction the rainfall intensity varies as the climatic regime shifts from the tropical central Andes to the subtropical south-central Andes. In this study, we investigate hydroclimatic extreme events over the south-central Andes using ERA-Interim reanalysis data of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the high resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We divide the area in three different study regions based on elevation: The high-elevation Altiplano-Puna plateau, an intermediate area characterized by intramontane basins, and the foreland area. We analyze the correlations between climatic variables, such as specific humidity, zonal wind component, meridional wind component and extreme rainfall events in all three domains. The results show that there is a high positive temporal correlation between extreme rainfall events (90th and 99th percentile rainfall) and extreme specific humidity events (90th and 99th percentile specific humidity). In addition, the temporal variations analysis represents a trend of increasing specific humidity with time during time period (1994-2013) over the Altiplano-Puna plateau which is in agreement with rainfall trend. Regarding zonal winds, our results indicate that 99th percentile rainfall events over the Altiplano-Puna plateau coincide temporally with strong easterly winds from intermountain and foreland regions in the east. In addition, the results regarding the meridional wind component represent strong northerly winds in the foreland region coincide temporally with 99th percentile rainfall over the Altiplano-Puna plateau.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

Magnetotelluric characterization of the northern margin of the Yilgarn Craton (Western Australia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piña-Varas, Perla; Dentith, Michael

2017-04-01

The northern margin of the Yilgarn Craton (Western Australia) was deformed during the convergence and collision with the Pilbara Craton and the intervening Glenburgh Terrain that created the Capricorn Orogen. The Yilgarn Craton is one of the most intensively mineralised areas of continental crust with world class deposits of gold and nickel. However, the region to its north has surprisingly few deposits. Cratonic margins are considered to be key indicators of prospectivity at a regional scale. The northern limit of the Yilgarn Craton within the Capricorn Orogen is not well resolved at date because of overlying Proterozoic sedimentary basins. We present here some of the results of an extensive magnetotelluric (MT) study that is being performed in the area. This study is a component of large multi-disciplinary geoscience project on the 'Distal Footprints of Giant Ore Systems' in the Capricorn Orogen. The MT dataset consists of a total of 240 broadband magnetotelluric stations (BBMT) and 84 long period stations (LMT). Analysis of the dataset reveals a clear 3-D geoelectrical behaviour and extreme complexity for most of the sites, including an extremely high number of sites with phases out-of-quadrant at long periods. 3-D inverse modelling of the MT data shows high resistivity Archean units and low resistivity Paleoproterozoic basins, including very low resistivity structures at depth. These strong resistivity contrasts allow us to successfully map northern margin of the Yilgarn Craton beneath basin cover, as well as identifying major lateral conductivity changes in the deep crust suggestive of different tectonic blocks. Upper crustal conductive zones can be correlated with faults on seismic reflection data. Our results suggest MT surveys are a useful tool for regional-scale exploration in the study area and in area of thick cover in general.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iono, Daisuke; Hatsukade, Bunyo; Kawabe, Ryohei

The central structure in three of the brightest unlensed z = 3–4 submillimeter galaxies is investigated through 0.″015–0.″05 (120–360 pc) 860 μ m continuum images obtained using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). The distribution in the central kiloparsec in AzTEC1 and AzTEC8 is extremely complex, and they are composed of multiple ∼200 pc clumps. AzTEC4 consists of two sources that are separated by ∼1.5 kpc, indicating a mid-stage merger. The peak star formation rate densities in the central clumps are ∼300–3000 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} kpc{sup −2}, suggesting regions with extreme star formation near the Eddington limit. Bymore » comparing the flux obtained by ALMA and Submillimeter Array, we find that 68%–90% of the emission is extended (≳1 kpc) in AzTEC4 and 8. For AzTEC1, we identify at least 11 additional compact (∼200 pc) clumps in the extended 3–4 kpc region. Overall, the data presented here suggest that the luminosity surface densities observed at ≲150 pc scales are roughly similar to that observed in local ULIRGs, as in the eastern nucleus of Arp 220. Between 10% and 30% of the 860 μ m continuum is concentrated in clumpy structures in the central kiloparsec, while the remaining flux is distributed over ≳1 kpc regions, some of which could also be clumpy. These sources can be explained by a rapid inflow of gas such as a merger of gas-rich galaxies, surrounded by extended and clumpy starbursts. However, the cold mode accretion model is not ruled out.« less

Aggregating Hydrometeorological Data from International Monitoring Networks Across Earth's Largest Lake System to Quantify Uncertainty in Historical Water Budget Records, Improve Regional Water Budget Projections, and Differentiate Drivers Behind a Recent Record-Setting Surge in Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Bruxer, J.; Smith, J.; Hunter, T.; Fortin, V.; Clites, A. H.; Durnford, D.; Qian, S.; Seglenieks, F.

2015-12-01

Resolving and projecting the water budget of the North American Great Lakes basin (Earth's largest lake system) requires aggregation of data from a complex array of in situ monitoring and remote sensing products that cross an international border (leading to potential sources of bias and other inconsistencies), and are relatively sparse over the surfaces of the lakes themselves. Data scarcity over the surfaces of the lakes is a particularly significant problem because, unlike Earth's other large freshwater basins, the Great Lakes basin water budget is (on annual scales) comprised of relatively equal contributions from runoff, over-lake precipitation, and over-lake evaporation. Consequently, understanding drivers behind changes in regional water storage and water levels requires a data management framework that can reconcile uncertainties associated with data scarcity and bias, and propagate those uncertainties into regional water budget projections and historical records. Here, we assess the development of a historical hydrometeorological database for the entire Great Lakes basin with records dating back to the late 1800s, and describe improvements that are specifically intended to differentiate hydrological, climatological, and anthropogenic drivers behind recent extreme changes in Great Lakes water levels. Our assessment includes a detailed analysis of the extent to which extreme cold winters in central North America in 2013-2014 (caused by the anomalous meridional upper air flow - commonly referred to in the public media as the "polar vortex" phenomenon) altered the thermal and hydrologic regimes of the Great Lakes and led to a record setting surge in water levels between January 2014 and December 2015.

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Natural and anthropogenic land cover change and its impact on the regional climate and hydrological extremes over Sanjiangyuan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, P.; Yuan, X.

2017-12-01

Located in the northern Tibetan Plateau, Sanjiangyuan is the headwater region of the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Mekong River. Besides climate change, natural and human-induced land cover change (e.g., Graze for Grass Project) is also influencing the regional hydro-climate and hydrological extremes significantly. To quantify their impacts, a land surface model (LSM) with consideration of soil moisture-lateral surface flow interaction and quasi-three-dimensional subsurface flow, is used to conduct long-term high resolution simulations driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System forcing data and different land cover scenarios. In particular, the role of surface and subsurface lateral flows is also analyzed by comparing with typical one-dimensional models. Lateral flows help to simulate soil moisture variability caused by topography at hyper-resolution (e.g., 100m), which is also essential for simulating hydrological extremes including soil moisture dryness/wetness and high/low flows. The LSM will also be coupled with a regional climate model to simulate the effect of natural and anthropogenic land cover change on regional climate, with particular focus on the land-atmosphere coupling at different resolutions with different configurations in modeling land surface hydrology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Analysis of extreme rain and flood events using a regional hydrologically enhanced hydrometeorological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper

2013-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

Holographic entanglement entropy conjecture for general spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanches, Fabio; Weinberg, Sean J.

2016-10-01

We present a natural generalization of holographic entanglement entropy proposals beyond the scope of AdS /CFT by anchoring extremal surfaces to holographic screens. Holographic screens are a natural extension of the AdS boundary to arbitrary spacetimes and are preferred codimension-1 surfaces from the viewpoint of the covariant entropy bound. A broad class of screens have a unique preferred foliation into codimension-2 surfaces called leaves. Our proposal is to find the areas of extremal surfaces anchored to the boundaries of regions in leaves. We show that the properties of holographic screens are sufficient to prove, under generic conditions, that extremal surfaces anchored in this way always lie within a causal region associated with a given leaf. Within this causal region, a maximin construction similar to that of Wall proves that our proposed quantity satisfies standard properties of entanglement entropy like strong subadditivity. We conjecture that our prescription computes entanglement entropies in quantum states that holographically define arbitrary spacetimes, including those in a cosmological setting with no obvious boundary on which to anchor extremal surfaces.

Dialogue-Based Research in Man-Machine Communication

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-11-01

This paper first surveys current knowledge of human communication from a point of view which seeks to find or develop knowledge that will be useful...complexity is explored. Building a useful knowledge of human communication is an extremely complex task. Controlling this complexity and its effects, without

Statistical complexity without explicit reference to underlying probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennini, F.; Plastino, A.

2018-06-01

We show that extremely simple systems of a not too large number of particles can be simultaneously thermally stable and complex. To such an end, we extend the statistical complexity's notion to simple configurations of non-interacting particles, without appeal to probabilities, and discuss configurational properties.

Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Economical Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Perea, N.; Emerson, D.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

2011-12-01

The frequency of occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes varies from tens to thousands of years, depending on the considered seismotectonic region of the world. However, the human and economic losses when their hypocenters are located in the neighborhood of heavily populated and/or industrialized regions, can be very large, as recently observed for the 1985 Mw 8.01 Michoacan, Mexico and the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes. Herewith, a methodology is proposed in order to estimate the probability of exceedance of: the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes, PEI and of their direct economical consequences PEDEC. The PEI are obtained by using supercomputing facilities to generate samples of the 3D propagation of extreme earthquake plausible scenarios, and enlarge those samples by Monte Carlo simulation. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. An example of the application of the methodology due to the potential occurrence of extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquakes on Mexico City is presented.

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der

2016-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der

2016-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016.

PubMed

Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der

2016-09-08

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

Extremely Nonthermal Monoenergetic Precipitation in the Auroral Acceleration Region: In Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatch, S.; Chaston, C. C.; Labelle, J. W.

2017-12-01

We report in situ measurements through the auroral acceleration region that reveal extremely nonthermal monoenergetic electron distributions. These auroral primaries are indicative of source populations in the plasma sheet well described as kappa distributions with κ ≲ 2. We show from observations and modeling how this large deviation from Maxwellian form may modify the acceleration potential required to drive current closure through the auroral ionosphere.

Complex Fluids and Hydraulic Fracturing.

PubMed

Barbati, Alexander C; Desroches, Jean; Robisson, Agathe; McKinley, Gareth H

2016-06-07

Nearly 70 years old, hydraulic fracturing is a core technique for stimulating hydrocarbon production in a majority of oil and gas reservoirs. Complex fluids are implemented in nearly every step of the fracturing process, most significantly to generate and sustain fractures and transport and distribute proppant particles during and following fluid injection. An extremely wide range of complex fluids are used: naturally occurring polysaccharide and synthetic polymer solutions, aqueous physical and chemical gels, organic gels, micellar surfactant solutions, emulsions, and foams. These fluids are loaded over a wide range of concentrations with particles of varying sizes and aspect ratios and are subjected to extreme mechanical and environmental conditions. We describe the settings of hydraulic fracturing (framed by geology), fracturing mechanics and physics, and the critical role that non-Newtonian fluid dynamics and complex fluids play in the hydraulic fracturing process.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June to September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basinmore » have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.« less

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

2017-12-01

Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosjean, Martin; Núñez, Lautaro; Cartajena, Isabel; Messerli, Bruno

1997-09-01

Twenty archaeological campsites intercalated between more than 30 debris flows caused by heavy rainfall events between 6200 and 3100 14C yr B.P. have recently been discovered at Quebrada Puripica in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. This record provides detailed information about extreme, short-lived climatic events during the hyperarid mid-Holocene period. For the first time, we found evidence of continuous human occupation in this area, filling the regional hiatus in the Atacama basin ("Silencio Arqueologico") between 8000 and 4800 14C yr B.P. The transformation of Early Archaic hunters into the complex Late Archaic cultural tradition was an adaptive process. During this time, the site was a local ecological refuge with abundant resources in a generally hostile environment.

Placento-Cranial Adhesions in Amniotic Band Syndrome and the Role of Surgery in Their Management: An Unusual Case Presentation and Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Menekse, Guner; Mert, Mustafa Kurthan; Olmaz, Burak; Celik, Tamer; Celik, Umit Sizmaz; Okten, Ali Ihsan

2015-01-01

Amniotic band syndrome is a group of sporadic congenital anomalies that involve the limbs, craniofacial regions and trunk, ranging from simple digital band constriction to complex craniofacial and central nervous system abnormalities. Placento-cranial adhesions in amniotic band syndrome are extremely rare, and severe conditions are associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. In this study, we pooled placento-cranial adhesion case reports that were published in the medical literature and added an unpublished case from our institution. The purpose of this article was to review and discuss the clinical features and outcomes of placento-cranial adhesions in amniotic band syndrome. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D

2015-02-03

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steptoe, H.; Jones, S. E. O.; Fox, H.

2018-03-01

Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere-ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer-reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number of cold nights, cold days, ice days and consecutive frost days over the western part of Europe. In the opposite case of low sea ice concentration over the Barents/Kara Seas an increase of up to 8 days/winter of cold nights and days is observed over the whole Europe and an increase of up to 4 days/winter in the number of ID and CFD is observed over the same regions. The cold winters over Europe (low sea ice years) are associated with anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough, which in turn favours the advection of cold air from the north, providing favourable conditions for severe winters over Europe. We suggest that these results can help to improve the seasonal predictions of winter extreme events over Europe. Due to the non-linear response to high vs. low sea ice years, the skill of the predictions might depend on the sign and amplitude of the anomalies.

Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia

PubMed Central

Eastin, Matthew D.; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

2014-01-01

Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors—all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C—the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts. PMID:24957546

Comprehensive Numerical Modeling of the Blast Furnace Ironmaking Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chenn; Tang, Guangwu; Wang, Jichao; Fu, Dong; Okosun, Tyamo; Silaen, Armin; Wu, Bin

2016-05-01

Blast furnaces are counter-current chemical reactors, widely utilized in the ironmaking industry. Hot reduction gases injected from lower regions of the furnace ascend, reacting with the descending burden. Through this reaction process, iron ore is reduced into liquid iron that is tapped from the furnace hearth. Due to the extremely harsh environment inside the blast furnace, it is difficult to measure or observe internal phenomena during operation. Through the collaboration between steel companies and the Center for Innovation through Visualization and Simulation, multiple computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models have been developed to simulate the complex multiphase reacting flow in the three regions of the furnace, the shaft, the raceway, and the hearth. The models have been used effectively to troubleshoot and optimize blast furnace operations. In addition, the CFD models have been integrated with virtual reality. An interactive virtual blast furnace has been developed for training purpose. This paper summarizes the developments and applications of blast furnace CFD models and the virtual blast furnace.

Oceanography of the Chilean Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantoja, Silvio; Luis Iriarte, José; Daneri, Giovanni

2011-03-01

Chilean Patagonia is one of the most extended fjord regions in the world that covers nearly 240,000 km 2 with an extremely complex coastline and topography in one of the least densely populated areas of the country (1-8 inhabitants every 10 km 2). In recent years, the area has been undergoing somewhat intense pressure since several commercial projects in hydroelectricity, tourism, and commercial salmon and mytilid cultures have been developed, or are in progress. Concomitantly, several large research programs have been devised to study the physical, chemical, and biological environment of Patagonia, such as the CIMAR FIORDO, and recently COPAS Sur-Austral based at Universidad de Concepcion, that attempts to close the bridge between oceanographic knowledge and its use by society. In this introductory article we summarize the collection of papers comprising this Special Issue of Continental Shelf Research. These papers deal with aspects of regional oceanography and geology, inorganic and organic geochemistry, ecology of pelagic and benthic organisms, and past changes in productivity.

Insolation Effects on Lunar Hydrogen: Observation from the LRO LEND and LOLA Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClanahan, T. P.; Mitrofanov, I. G.; Boynton, W. V.; Chin, G.; Droege, G.; Evans, L. G.; Garvin, J.; Harshman, K.; Livak, M. M.; Malakhov, A.;

Evaluating the performance of parallel subsurface simulators: An illustrative example with PFLOTRAN

PubMed Central

Hammond, G E; Lichtner, P C; Mills, R T

2014-01-01

[1] To better inform the subsurface scientist on the expected performance of parallel simulators, this work investigates performance of the reactive multiphase flow and multicomponent biogeochemical transport code PFLOTRAN as it is applied to several realistic modeling scenarios run on the Jaguar supercomputer. After a brief introduction to the code's parallel layout and code design, PFLOTRAN's parallel performance (measured through strong and weak scalability analyses) is evaluated in the context of conceptual model layout, software and algorithmic design, and known hardware limitations. PFLOTRAN scales well (with regard to strong scaling) for three realistic problem scenarios: (1) in situ leaching of copper from a mineral ore deposit within a 5-spot flow regime, (2) transient flow and solute transport within a regional doublet, and (3) a real-world problem involving uranium surface complexation within a heterogeneous and extremely dynamic variably saturated flow field. Weak scalability is discussed in detail for the regional doublet problem, and several difficulties with its interpretation are noted. PMID:25506097

Evaluating the performance of parallel subsurface simulators: An illustrative example with PFLOTRAN.

PubMed

Hammond, G E; Lichtner, P C; Mills, R T

2014-01-01

[1] To better inform the subsurface scientist on the expected performance of parallel simulators, this work investigates performance of the reactive multiphase flow and multicomponent biogeochemical transport code PFLOTRAN as it is applied to several realistic modeling scenarios run on the Jaguar supercomputer. After a brief introduction to the code's parallel layout and code design, PFLOTRAN's parallel performance (measured through strong and weak scalability analyses) is evaluated in the context of conceptual model layout, software and algorithmic design, and known hardware limitations. PFLOTRAN scales well (with regard to strong scaling) for three realistic problem scenarios: (1) in situ leaching of copper from a mineral ore deposit within a 5-spot flow regime, (2) transient flow and solute transport within a regional doublet, and (3) a real-world problem involving uranium surface complexation within a heterogeneous and extremely dynamic variably saturated flow field. Weak scalability is discussed in detail for the regional doublet problem, and several difficulties with its interpretation are noted.

Critical Hydrologic and Atmospheric Measurements in Complex Alpine Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parlange, M. B.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Barrenetxea, G.; Krichane, M.; Ingelrest, F.; Couach, O.; Luyet, V.; Vetterli, M.; Lehning, M.; Duffy, C.; Tobin, C.; Selker, J.; Kumar, M.

2007-12-01

The Alps are often referred to as the « Water Towers of Europe » and as such play an essential role in European water resources. The impact of climatic change is expected to be particularly pronounced in the Alps and the lack of detailed hydrologic field observations is problematic for predictions of hydrologic and hazard assessment. Advances in information technology and communications provide important possibilities to improve the situation with relatively few measurements. We will present sensorscope technology (arrays of wireless weather stations including soil moisture, pressure, and temperature) that has now been deployed at the Le Genepi and Grand St. Bernard pass. In addition, a Distributed Temperature Sensor array on the stream beds has been deployed and stream discharge monitored. The high spatial resolution data collected in these previously "ungaged" regions are used in conjunction with new generation hydrologic models. The framework as to what is possible today with sensor arrays and modeling in extreme mountain environments is discussed.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Discovery of a Bright Equatorial Storm on Neptune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molter, E. M.; De Pater, I.; Alvarez, C.; Tollefson, J.; Luszcz-Cook, S.

2017-12-01

Images of Neptune, taken with the NIRC2 instrument during testing of the new Twilight Zone observing program at Keck Observatory, revealed an extremely large bright storm system near Neptune's equator. The storm complex is ≈9,000 km across and brightened considerably between June 26 and July 2. Historically, very bright clouds have occasionally been seen on Neptune, but always in the midlatitude regions between ≈15° and ≈60° North or South. Voyager and HST observations have shown that cloud features large enough to dominate near-IR photometry are often "companion" clouds of dark anti-cyclonic vortices similar to Jupiter's Great Red Spot, interpreted as orographic clouds. In the past such clouds and their coincident dark vortices often persisted for one up to several years. However, the cloud complex we detect is unique: never before has a bright cloud been seen at, or so close to, the equator. The discovery points to a drastic departure in the dynamics of Neptune's atmosphere from what has been observed for the past several decades. Detections of the complex in multiple NIRC2 filters allows radiative transfer modeling to constrain the cloud's altitude and vertical extent.

The sh2-R allele of the maize shrunken-2 locus was caused by a complex chromosomal rearrangement.

PubMed

Kramer, Vance; Shaw, Janine R; Senior, M Lynn; Hannah, L Curtis

2015-03-01

The mutant that originally defined the shrunken - 2 locus of maize is shown here to be the product of a complex chromosomal rearrangement. The maize shrunken-2 gene (sh2) encodes the large subunit of the heterotetrameric enzyme, adenosine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylases and a rate-limiting enzyme in starch biosynthesis. The sh2 gene was defined approximately 72 years ago by the isolation of a loss-of-function allele conditioning a shrunken, but viable seed. In subsequent years, the realization that this allele, termed zsh2-R or sh2-Reference, causes an extremely high level of sucrose to accumulate in the developing seed led to a revolution in the sweet corn industry. Now, the vast majority of sweet corns grown throughout the world contain this mutant allele. Through initial Southern analysis followed by genomic sequencing, the work reported here shows that this allele arose through a complex set of events involving at least three breaks of chromosome 3 as well as an intra-chromosomal inversion. These findings provide an explanation for some previously reported, unexpected observations concerning rates of recombination within and between genes in this region.

The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2017-04-01

In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this presentation, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sig995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations. Particular attention will be devoted to 2015/2016 Malawi drought, which received some media attention due to the failure of the risk assessment model used to trigger due payouts: it will be shown how, on the contrary, combination of hydrological and temperature data used in ECI succeed in evaluating the extremeness of this event.