Phylogeography and Molecular Epidemiology of an Epidemic Strain of Dengue Virus Type 1 in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Ocwieja, Karen E.; Fernando, Anira N.; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Sundararaman, Sesh A.; Tennekoon, Rashika N.; Tippalagama, Rashmi; Krishnananthasivam, Shivankari; Premawansa, Gayani; Premawansa, Sunil; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan

2014-01-01

In 2009, a severe epidemic of dengue disease occurred in Sri Lanka, with higher mortality and morbidity than any previously recorded epidemic in the country. It corresponded to a shift to dengue virus 1 as the major disease-causing serotype in Sri Lanka. Dengue disease reached epidemic levels in the next 3 years. We report phylogenetic evidence that the 2009 epidemic DENV-1 strain continued to circulate within the population and caused severe disease in the epidemic of 2012. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses suggest that the 2009 Sri Lankan epidemic DENV-1 strain may have traveled directly or indirectly from Thailand through China to Sri Lanka, and after spreading within the Sri Lankan population, it traveled to Pakistan and Singapore. Our findings delineate the dissemination route of a virulent DENV-1 strain in Asia. Understanding such routes will be of particular importance to global control efforts. PMID:24799375

Virus-Specific Differences in Rates of Disease during the 2010 Dengue Epidemic in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Sharp, Tyler M.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Santiago, Luis M.; Rivera, Aidsa; Rodríguez-Acosta, Rosa L.; Gonzalez Feliciano, Lorenzo; Margolis, Harold S.; Tomashek, Kay M.

2013-01-01

Background Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) that are endemic in Puerto Rico. In January 2010, the number of suspected dengue cases reported to the passive dengue surveillance system exceeded the epidemic threshold and an epidemic was declared soon after. Methodology/Principal Findings To characterize the epidemic, surveillance and laboratory diagnostic data were compiled. A suspected case was a dengue-like AFI in a person reported by a health care provider with or without a specimen submitted for diagnostic testing. Laboratory-positive cases had: (i) DENV nucleic acid detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in an acute serum specimen; (ii) anti-DENV IgM antibody detected by ELISA in any serum specimen; or (iii) DENV antigen or nucleic acid detected in an autopsy-tissue specimen. In 2010, a total of 26,766 suspected dengue cases (7.2 per 1,000 residents) were identified, of which 46.6% were laboratory-positive. Of 7,426 RT-PCR-positive specimens, DENV-1 (69.0%) and DENV-4 (23.6%) were detected more frequently than DENV-2 (7.3%) and DENV-3 (<0.1%). Nearly half (47.1%) of all laboratory-positive cases were adults, 49.7% had dengue with warning signs, 11.1% had severe dengue, and 40 died. Approximately 21% of cases were primary DENV infections, and 1–4 year olds were the only age group for which primary infection was more common than secondary. Individuals infected with DENV-1 were 4.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7–9.8) and 4.0 (95% CI: 2.4–6.5) times more likely to have primary infection than those infected with DENV-2 or -4, respectively. Conclusions/Significance This epidemic was long in duration and yielded the highest incidence of reported dengue cases and deaths since surveillance began in Puerto Rico in the late 1960's. This epidemic re-emphasizes the need for more effective primary prevention interventions to reduce the morbidity and

The 2012 Madeira Dengue Outbreak: Epidemiological Determinants and Future Epidemic Potential

PubMed Central

Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

2014-01-01

Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first ‘European’ dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August—a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning. PMID:25144749

Genomic Epidemiology of a Dengue Virus Epidemic in Urban Singapore▿ †

PubMed Central

Schreiber, Mark J.; Holmes, Edward C.; Ong, Swee Hoe; Soh, Harold S. H.; Liu, Wei; Tanner, Lukas; Aw, Pauline P. K.; Tan, Hwee Cheng; Ng, Lee Ching; Leo, Yee Sin; Low, Jenny G. H.; Ong, Adrian; Ooi, Eng Eong; Vasudevan, Subhash G.; Hibberd, Martin L.

2009-01-01

Dengue is one of the most important emerging diseases of humans, with no preventative vaccines or antiviral cures available at present. Although one-third of the world's population live at risk of infection, little is known about the pattern and dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) within outbreak situations. By exploiting genomic data from an intensively studied major outbreak, we are able to describe the molecular epidemiology of DENV at a uniquely fine-scaled temporal and spatial resolution. Two DENV serotypes (DENV-1 and DENV-3), and multiple component genotypes, spread concurrently and with similar epidemiological and evolutionary profiles during the initial outbreak phase of a major dengue epidemic that took place in Singapore during 2005. Although DENV-1 and DENV-3 differed in viremia and clinical outcome, there was no evidence for adaptive evolution before, during, or after the outbreak, indicating that ecological or immunological rather than virological factors were the key determinants of epidemic dynamics. PMID:19211734

Characterization of the 2013 dengue epidemic in Myanmar with dengue virus 1 as the dominant serotype.

PubMed

Ngwe Tun, Mya Myat; Kyaw, Aung Kyaw; Makki, Nader; Muthugala, Rohitha; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Inoue, Shingo; Hayasaka, Daisuke; Moi, Meng Ling; Buerano, Corazon C; Thwe, Saw Myat; Thant, Kyaw Zin; Morita, Kouichi

2016-09-01

In 2013 in Myanmar, dengue epidemic occurred with 20,255 cases including 84 deaths. This study aimed to determine the serological and molecular characteristics of dengue virus (DENV) infection among children with clinical diagnosis of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS) during this period. Single acute serum samples were collected from 300 children in Mandalay Children Hospital, Mandalay, Myanmar. Out of the 300 children, 175 (58.3%) and 183 (61%) were positive for anti-dengue IgM and anti-dengue IgG, respectively. Among the IgM positives, 41 (23.4%) had primary DENV infection. Thirty-nine DENV strains (23 DENV-1, 10 DENV-2 and 6 DENV-4) were successfully isolated after inoculation of the patient serum samples onto C6/36 cells. DENV 1 was the dominant serotype in the 2013 epidemic. There was no correlation between the infecting serotypes and clinical severities. The DENV-1 strains belonged to three lineages of the genotype 1; the DENV-2 strains were of the Asian I genotype and were separated into two lineages; and DENV-4 strains belonged to the same lineage of genotype I. It is of interest to note the diversity of DENV-1 and -2 circulating in the same location during June-August 2013. These DENV isolates were genetically close (98%-100%) to the other previously reported isolates from Myanmar and its neighboring countries, namely China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Cambodia and Vietnam. Primary DENV infection was still high among the severe dengue cases. Different serotypes of DENV were co-circulating in 2013, however, genotype shift was not observed. Additionally, amino acid mutations were detected in the study strains not seen in the previously reported strains from other countries and Myanmar. This paper provided information on the circulating serotypes for the last 15years and the recent dengue situation in Mandalay, Myanmar after 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Impact of Geographical Environment and Socio-economic Factors on the Spatial Distribution of Kaohsiung Dengue Fever Epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Wei-Yin; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2013-04-01

Taiwan is located in subtropical and tropical regions with high temperature and high humidity in the summer. This kind of climatic condition is the hotbed for the propagation and spread of the dengue vector mosquito. Kaohsiung City has been the worst dengue fever epidemic city in Taiwan. During the study period, from January 1998 to December 2011, Taiwan CDC recorded 7071 locally dengue epidemic cases in Kaohsiung City, and the number of imported case is 118. Our research uses Quantile Regression, a spatial infection disease distribution, to analyze the correlation between dengue epidemic and geographic environmental factors and human society factors in Kaohsiung. According to our experiment statistics, agriculture and natural forest have a positive relation to dengue fever(5.5~34.39 and 3.91~15.52). The epidemic will rise when the ratio for agriculture and natural forest increases. Residential ratio has a negative relation for quantile 0.1 to 0.4(-0.005~-0.78), and a positive relation for quantile 0.5 to0.9(0.01~18.0) . The mean income is also a significant factor in social economy field, and it has a negative relation to dengue fever(-0.01~-0.04). Conclusion from our research is that the main factor affecting the degree of dengue fever in predilection area is the residential proportion and the ratio of agriculture and natural forest plays an important role affecting the degree of dengue fever in non predilection area. Moreover, the serious epidemic area located by regression model is the same as the actual condition in Kaohsiung. This model can be used to predict the serious epidemic area of dengue fever and provide some references for the Health Agencies

Determination of clusters and factors associated with dengue dispersion during the first epidemic related to Dengue virus serotype 4 in Vitória, Brazil

PubMed Central

Herbinger, Karl-Heinz; Cerutti Junior, Crispim; Malta Romano, Camila; de Souza Areias Cabidelle, Aline; Fröschl, Günter

2017-01-01

Dengue occurrence is partially influenced by the immune status of the population. Consequently, the introduction of a new Dengue virus serotype can trigger explosive epidemics in susceptible populations. The determination of clusters in this scenario can help to identify hotspots and understand the disease dispersion regardless of the influence of the population herd immunity. The present study evaluated the pattern and factors associated with dengue dispersion during the first epidemic related to Dengue virus serotype 4 in Vitória, Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on 18,861 dengue cases reported in Vitória from September 2012 to June 2013 were included in the study. The analysis of spatial variation in temporal trend was performed to detect clusters that were compared by their respective relative risk, house index, population density, and income in an ecological study. Overall, 11 clusters were detected. The time trend increase of dengue incidence in the overall study population was 636%. The five clusters that showed a lower time trend increase than the overall population presented a higher incidence in the beginning of the epidemic and, compared to the six clusters with higher time trend increase, they presented higher relative risk for their inhabitants to acquire dengue infection (P-value = 0.02) and a lower income (P-value <0.01). House index and population density did not differ between the clusters. Early increase of dengue incidence and higher relative risk for acquiring dengue infection were favored in low-income areas. Preventive actions and improvement of infrastructure in low-income areas should be prioritized in order to diminish the magnitude of dengue dispersion after the introduction of a new serotype. PMID:28388694

Evolutionary Relationships of Endemic/Epidemic and Sylvatic Dengue Viruses

PubMed Central

Wang, Eryu; Ni, Haolin; Xu, Renling; Barrett, Alan D. T.; Watowich, Stanley J.; Gubler, Duane J.; Weaver, Scott C.

2000-01-01

Endemic/epidemic dengue viruses (DEN) that are transmitted among humans by the mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are hypothesized to have evolved from sylvatic DEN strains that are transmitted among nonhuman primates in West Africa and Malaysia by other Aedes mosquitoes. We tested this hypothesis with phylogenetic studies using envelope protein gene sequences of both endemic/epidemic and sylvatic strains. The basal position of sylvatic lineages of DEN-1, -2, and -4 suggested that the endemic/epidemic lineages of these three DEN serotypes evolved independently from sylvatic progenitors. Time estimates for evolution of the endemic/epidemic forms ranged from 100 to 1,500 years ago, and the evolution of endemic/epidemic forms represents relatively recent events in the history of DEN evolution. Analysis of envelope protein amino acid changes predicted to have accompanied endemic/epidemic emergence suggested a role for domain III in adaptation to new mosquito and/or human hosts. PMID:10708439

The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies. Methods Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country. Results Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature. Conclusions Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season. PMID:21651779

Assessing changes in knowledge, attitude and practices on dengue diagnosis and management among primary care physicians after the largest dengue epidemic in Singapore.

PubMed

Pang, Junxiong; Hildon, Zoe Jane-Lara; Thein, Tun Linn; Jin, Jing; Leo, Yee Sin

2017-06-15

Dengue results in high morbidity and mortality globally. The knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of dengue management, including diagnosis, among primary care physicians (PCPs) are important to reduce dengue transmission and burden. However, there is a lack of understanding on the impact of dengue epidemic on dengue management. Hence, the aim of this study is to examine the changes in KAP on dengue management among PCPs before and after the largest dengue epidemic in 2013 in Singapore. Surveys were mailed to 2000 and 1514 PCPs registered under the Singapore Medical Council in March of year 2011 and 2014, respectively. Survey data were then collected between April and June of that year. Chi-square or Fisher's exact test was used for comparing categorical variables. A multivariate logistic regression model was implemented to determine independent factors for frequent use of dengue diagnostic tests (DDTs). All tests were conducted at 5% level of significance. Adjusted odds ratio and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were reported, where applicable. Qualitative data were descriptively coded for themes and analysis. Among PCPs surveyed in 2011 and 2014, 89.9% and 86% had good knowledge on dengue management respectively. The usage of DDTs had increased significantly in 2014 (N = 164;56%) as compared to 2011 (N = 107;29.5%) in both private and public clinics (p < 0.001). Dengue Duo point-of-care test (POCT) kits was independently associated with frequent use of DDTs (adjusted odds ratio = 2.15; 95% confidence interval = 1.25-3.69). There was a significant reduction in referral of dengue patients to hospital (31.4% in 2011; 13.3% in 2014; p < 0.001), and a significant increase in frequency of clinic follow-ups (18.4% in 2011; 28.5% in 2014; p = 0.003). One key theme highlighted was that dengue management can be improved with availability of POCT kit, better awareness of the disease and any revised clinical guidelines. The knowledge on dengue

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

PubMed Central

Hsu, Pi-Shan; Chen, Chaur-Dong; Lian, Ie-Bin; Chao, Day-Yu

2015-01-01

Background Despite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the

Dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever: Indian perspective.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, U C; Nagar, Rachna

2008-11-01

The relationship of this country with dengue has been long and intense. The ?rst recorded epidemic of clinically dengue-like illness occurred at Madras in 1780 and the dengue virus was isolated for the ?rst time almost simultaneously in Japan and Calcutta in 1943-1944. After the ?rst virologically proved epidemic of dengue fever along the East Coast of India in 1963-1964, it spread to allover the country.The ?rst full-blown epidemic of the severe form of the illness,the dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome occurred in North India in 1996. Aedes aegypti is the vector for transmission of the disease. Vaccines or antiviral drugs are not available for dengue viruses; the only effective way to prevent epidemic degure fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) is to control the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti and prevent its bite. This country has few virus laboratories and some of them have done excellent work in the area of molecular epidemiology,immunopathology and vaccine development. Selected work done in this country on the problems of dengue is presented here.

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

PubMed Central

Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Lowe, Rachel

2013-01-01

We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region. PMID:23478584

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals

PubMed Central

Oidtman, Rachel J.; Huber, John H.; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Brady, Oliver J.; Johansson, Michael A.; Perkins, T. Alex

2017-01-01

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r—R0 and the generation interval—to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change. PMID:28723920

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siraj, A. S.; Oidtman, R. J.; Huber, J. H.; Kraemer, M. U.; Brady, O. J.; Johansson, M. A.; Perkins, T. A.

2017-12-01

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r—R0 and the generation interval—to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35 °C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.

Aedes aegypti Larval Indices and Risk for Dengue Epidemics

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Lizet; Vanlerberghe, Veerle; Alfonso, Lázara; Marquetti, María del Carmen; Guzman, María Guadalupe; Bisset, Juan; van der Stuyft, Patrick

2006-01-01

We assessed in a case-control study the test-validity of Aedes larval indices for the 2000 Havana outbreak. "Cases" were blocks where a dengue fever patient lived during the outbreak. "Controls" were randomly sampled blocks. Before, during, and after the epidemic, we calculated Breteau index (BI) and house index at the area, neighborhood, and block level. We constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine their performance as predictors of dengue transmission. We observed a pronounced effect of the level of measurement. The BImax (maximum block BI in a radius of 100 m) at 2-month intervals had an area under the ROC curve of 71%. At a cutoff of 4.0, it significantly (odds ratio 6.00, p<0.05) predicted transmission with 78% sensitivity and 63% specificity. Analysis of BI at the local level, with human-defined boundaries, could be introduced in control programs to identify neighborhoods at high risk for dengue transmission. PMID:16704841

A survey of the 2014 dengue fever epidemic in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Yang, Liu; Chen, Yue; Yan, Huacheng; Zhang, Pei; Xu, Xiaoli; Tang, Boheng; Zhao, Ping; Ren, Ruiwen

2015-01-01

In 2014, a serious dengue outbreak in Guangzhou occurred, consisting of 37 354 laboratory confirmed cases of infection. In this study, the clinical picture of dengue fever due to dengue virus (DENV) type 1 in Guangzhou was described. Clinical and laboratory data collected by studying 726 sera of suspected clinical cases from hospitals and 328 sera of healthy persons from two residence communities were analyzed during the outbreak, and 484 patients were diagnosed with an acute dengue infection. Fever, headache, congestion of the throat, and myalgia were the most typical symptoms in DENV-infected patients. Thrombocytopenia, leukopenia, and an increase in liver enzymes were significantly more common in the infected patients than in the healthy controls. Fourteen cases of silent infection were discovered among the 328 healthy persons, suggesting a DENV inapparent infection rate of 4.27% among healthy individuals. The data obtained by analyzing 212 positive sera with three methods indicated different results with different detection methods. DENV RNA should be used for early diagnoses during days 1–6 after symptom onset, immunoglobulin M (IgM) can be easily recognized after four days have passed since symptom onset and DENV isolation has a peak positive rate during days 1–3 after the onset of symptoms. A phylogenetic analysis of viral NS1 gene sequences from this outbreak indicated that the predominant isolates could be categorized as DENV-1 genotype III and had the highest homology with the India genotypes from 2009 to 2011. However, this analysis also revealed a co-epidemic of the 2013 Zhongshan and 2003 Singapore genotypes, both belonging to DENV-1 genotype I, which suggested multiple geographic origins for the 2014 epidemic of dengue 1 strains in Guangzhou. PMID:26954995

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR

PubMed Central

Morin, Cory W.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Barrera, Roberto; Ernst, Kacey

2015-01-01

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important

Epidemic dengue 2 in the city of Djibouti 1991-1992.

PubMed

Rodier, G R; Gubler, D J; Cope, S E; Cropp, C B; Soliman, A K; Polycarpe, D; Abdourhaman, M A; Parra, J P; Maslin, J; Arthur, R R

1996-01-01

From October 1991 to February 1992, an outbreak of acute fever (in which thick blood films were negative for malaria) spread rapidly in the city of Djibouti, Djibouti Republic, affecting all age groups and both nationals and foreigners. The estimated number of cases was 12,000. The clinical features were consistent with a non-haemorrhagic dengue-like illness. Serum samples from 91 patients were analysed serologically for flavivirus infection (dengue 1-4, West Nile, yellow fever, Zika, Banzi, and Uganda-S), and virus isolation was attempted. Twelve strains of dengue 2 virus were isolated. Dengue infection was confirmed by a 4-fold or greater rise in immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody in paired serum specimens, the presence of IgM antibody, or isolation of the virus. Overall, 46 of the suspected cases (51%) were confirmed virologically or had serological evidence of a recent flavivirus infection. Statistical analysis showed that the presence of a rash was the best predictor of flavivirus seropositivity. In November 1992, Aedes aegypti was widespread and abundant in several districts of Djibouti city. A serological study of serum samples collected from Djiboutian military personnel 5 months before the epidemic showed that only 15/177 (8.5%) had flavivirus antibodies. These findings, together with a negative serosurvey for dengue serotypes 1-4 and yellow fever virus performed in 1987, support the conclusion that dengue 2 virus has only recently been introduced to Djibouti.

Simulations of a epidemic model with parameters variation analysis for the dengue fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Prates, D. B.; Silva, J. M.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; Kritz, M. V.

2015-09-01

Mathematical models can be widely found in the literature for describing and analyzing epidemics. The models that use differential equations to represent mathematically such description are specially sensible to parameters involved in the modelling. In this work, an already developed model, called SIR, is analyzed when applied to a scenario of a dengue fever epidemic. Such choice is powered by the existence of useful tools presented by a variation of this original model, which allow an inclusion of different aspects of the dengue fever disease, as its seasonal characteristics, the presence of more than one strain of the vector and of the biological factor of cross-immunity. The analysis and results interpretation are performed through numerical solutions of the model in question, and a special attention is given to the different solutions generated by the use of different values for the parameters present in this model. Slight variations are performed either dynamically or statically in those parameters, mimicking hypothesized changes in the biological scenario of this simulation and providing a source of evaluation of how those changes would affect the outcomes of the epidemic in a population.

Ocular manifestations of dengue fever in an East Indian epidemic.

PubMed

Kapoor, Harpreet K; Bhai, Saloni; John, Mary; Xavier, Jai

2006-12-01

The incidence and geographic distribution of dengue has increased dramatically in recent years. Previously, ocular findings in dengue fever were considered rare. We report a spectrum of ocular manifestations of this potentially fatal disease and its association with laboratory parameters. 134 patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of dengue fever during an epidemic were included. Systemic and ophthalmic examinations were completed on all patients. The mean age was 31.3 years and 63.4% were males. All patients presented with fever. Six (4.5%) patients had retrobulbar pain and none of the patients presented with any visual complaints. Ocular findings were present in 54 (40.3%) patients. Subconjunctival haemorrhage was the commonest eye finding seen in 50 patients, of whom 84% had characteristic petechial type of haemorrhages. Fundus findings present in 10 (7.5%) patients included dilatation and tortuosity of vessels, superficial retinal haemorrhages, cotton-wool spots, and hard exudates; the macula, however, was spared in all patients. Only 6 of the patients with posterior segment involvement returned for follow-up examination and it was found that retinal changes had resolved without any specific treatment within 2 to 8 weeks time. Of all laboratory parameters evaluated, marked thrombocytopenia (platelet count <50,000/microL) emerged to be significantly associated with ocular haemorrhage. Multiple subconjunctival haemorrhages, especially petechial type, are a common manifestation of dengue infection. Dengue fever patients with marked thrombocytopenia are predisposed to spontaneous ocular haemorrhages.

A micro-epidemic model for primary dengue infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Arti; Gakkhar, Sunita

2017-06-01

In this paper, a micro-epidemic non-linear dynamical model has been proposed and analyzed for primary dengue infection. The model incorporates the effects of T cells immune response as well as humoral response during pathogenesis of dengue infection. The time delay has been accounted for production of antibodies from B cells. The basic reproduction number (R0) has been computed. Three equilibrium states are obtained. The existence and stability conditions for infection-free and ineffective cellular immune response state have been discussed. The conditions for existence of endemic state have been obtained. Further, the parametric region is obtained where system exhibits complex behavior. The threshold value of time delay has been computed which is critical for change in stability of endemic state. A threshold level for antibodies production rate has been obtained over which the infection will die out even though R0 > 1. The model is in line with the clinical observation that viral load decreases within 7-14 days from the onset of primary infection.

Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

PubMed Central

Tomashek, Kay M.; Gregory, Christopher J.; Rivera Sánchez, Aidsa; Bartek, Matthew A.; Garcia Rivera, Enid J.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Sun, Wellington

2012-01-01

Background The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care. Methods Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death. Results Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged <15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3–48 hours) in the emergency department (ED) before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances. Conclusions During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED

Expanded Dengue.

PubMed

Kadam, D B; Salvi, Sonali; Chandanwale, Ajay

2016-07-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) has coined the term expanded dengue to describe cases which do not fall into either dengue shock syndrome or dengue hemorrhagic fever. This has incorporated several atypical findings of dengue. Dengue virus has not been enlisted as a common etiological agent in several conditions like encephalitis, Guillain Barre syndrome. Moreover it is a great mimic of co-existing epidemics like Malaria, Chikungunya and Zika virus disease, which are also mosquito-borne diseases. The atypical manifestations noted in dengue can be mutisystemic and multifacetal. In clinical practice, the occurrence of atypical presentation should prompt us to investigate for dengue. Knowledge of expanded dengue helps to clinch the diagnosis of dengue early, especially during ongoing epidemics, avoiding further battery of investigations. Dengue has proved to be the epidemic with the ability to recur and has a diverse array of presentation as seen in large series from India, Srilanka, Indonesia and Taiwan. WHO has given the case definition of dengue fever in their comprehensive guidelines. Accordingly, a probable case is defined as acute febrile illness with two or more of any findings viz. headache, retro-orbital pain, myalgia, arthralgia, rash, hemorrhagic manifestations, leucopenia and supportive serology. There have been cases of patients admitted with fever, altered mentation with or without neck stiffness and pyramidal tract signs. Some had seizures or status epilepticus as presentation. When they were tested for serology, dengue was positive. After ruling out other causes, dengue remained the only culprit. We have come across varied presentations of dengue fever in clinical practice and the present article throws light on atypical manifestations of dengue. © Journal of the Association of Physicians of India 2011.

Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.

PubMed

Falcón-Lezama, Jorge A; Martínez-Vega, Ruth A; Kuri-Morales, Pablo A; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Adams, Ben

2016-10-01

Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People's day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector-host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest vector-host ratio, even if they only spend some of their time there. Synchronisation of epidemic trajectories in different demographic groups is governed by the vector-host ratios to which they are exposed and the strength of connectivity. Strategies for epidemic prevention and management may be made more effective if they take into account the fluctuating landscape of transmission intensity associated with spatial heterogeneity in the vector-host ratio and people's day-to-day movement patterns.

Weather variables and the El Niño Southern Oscillation may drive the epidemics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jianpeng; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Zhu, Guanghu; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Zhang, Bing; Song, Tie; Deng, Aiping; Zhang, Meng; Zhong, Haojie; Lin, Shao; Rutherford, Shannon; Meng, Xiaojing; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2018-05-15

To investigate the periodicity of dengue and the relationship between weather variables, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue incidence in Guangdong Province, China. Guangdong monthly dengue incidence and weather data and El Niño index information for 1988 to 2015 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to investigate the periodicity of dengue, and the coherence and time-lag phases between dengue and weather variables and ENSO. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach was further employed to explore the dose-response relationship of those variables on dengue. Finally, random forest analysis was applied to measure the relative importance of the climate predictors. Dengue in Guangdong has a dominant annual periodicity over the period 1988-2015. Mean minimum temperature, total precipitation, and mean relative humidity are positively related to dengue incidence for 2, 3, and 4months lag, respectively. ENSO in the previous 12months may have driven the dengue epidemics in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2010 in Guangdong. GAM analysis indicates an approximate linear association for the temperature-dengue relationship, approximate logarithm curve for the humidity-dengue relationship, and an inverted U-shape association for the precipitation-dengue (the threshold of precipitation is 348mm per month) and ENSO-dengue relationships (the threshold of ENSO index is 0.6°C). The monthly mean minimum temperature in the previous two months was identified as the most important climate variable associated with dengue epidemics in Guangdong Province. Our study suggests weather factors and ENSO are important predictors of dengue incidence. These findings provide useful evidence for early warning systems to help to respond to the global expansion of dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classical dengue hemorrhagic fever resulting from two dengue infections spaced 20 years or more apart: Havana, Dengue 3 epidemic, 2001-2002.

PubMed

González, Daniel; Castro, Osvaldo E; Kourí, Gustavo; Perez, Jorge; Martinez, Eric; Vazquez, Susana; Rosario, Delfina; Cancio, Reynel; Guzman, María G

2005-09-01

To report the clinical, laboratory and sonographic findings in 76 adult cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). A dengue 3 epidemic occurred in Havana City from June 2001 to March 2002. 12,889 cases were reported, with 81 DHF cases. From this, 76 serologically confirmed cases were studied descriptively. Bronchial asthma and white race were important risk factors for the severe form of the disease. Fever (100%), headache (92.1%), myalgia (76.3%), arthralgia (73.7%) and retro-orbital pain (57.7%) were the most frequent general symptoms. Vomiting and abdominal pain were observed in 59.2% and 48.6% of cases, respectively. The most common bleeding site was the vagina (64%), followed by the skin (55.2%). Eighteen patients (23.6%) had shock syndrome. Laboratory findings included thrombocytopenia (100%), hemoconcentration (93.4%), an increase in liver enzymes (82.8%), and leukopenia (71%). Ultrasound detected thickening of the gallbladder wall in 35.1%, pleural effusion in 20.3%, and splenomegaly in 12.9% of cases. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the clinical aspects of DHF in adult patients due to the dengue 3 virus.

Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential.

PubMed

Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Stenlund, Hans; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.

Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

PubMed

Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

2018-07-01

By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Retrospective Review of Platelet Transfusion Practices during 2013 Dengue Epidemic of Delhi, India.

PubMed

Chaurasia, Rahul; Zaman, Shamsuz; Chatterjee, Kabita; Das, Bankim

2015-07-01

Dengue infection is a major public health problem. During explosive outbreaks, there is sudden surge in demands of platelet products. The present study was carried out in order to review platelet transfusion practices during the epidemic of dengue. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical details including the platelet counts and haemorrhagic tendencies of dengue patients as well as the transfusion requirements of diagnosed dengue cases admitted at our centre. A total of 1,750 random donor platelet and 114 single donor platelet units were transfused to 531 patients. 23.2% platelet transfusions were found to be inappropriate Mean dosage of platelets transfused was 2 × 10(11) platelets per patient. A total of 347 (65.3%) patients had bleeding diathesis at the time of presentation. Skin and the oropharynx were the most common bleeding sites. Major bleeding was seen in 119 (34.3%) patients, whereas 228 (65.7%) patients had minor bleeding episodes. The study emphasises the need for minimising unnecessary transfusions and for using this scarce resource judiciously, which can be achieved by strict adherence to evidence-based transfusion guidelines and regular review of the on-going transfusion practices.

Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Brazil, 1981–2002

PubMed Central

Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Simplício, Ana Cristina da Rocha; Hatch, Douglas L.

2005-01-01

In the last 5 years, Brazil has accounted for ≈70% of reported dengue fever cases in the Americas. We analyzed trends of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) from the early 1980s to 2002 by using surveillance data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Two distinct epidemiologic patterns for dengue were observed: localized epidemics (1986–1993), and endemic and epidemic virus circulation countrywide (1994–2002). Currently, serotypes 1, 2, and 3 cocirculate in 22 of 27 states. Dengue and DHF affected mainly adults; however, an increase in occurrence of DHF among children has been recently detected in northern Brazil, which suggests a shift in the occurrence of severe disease to younger age groups. In 2002, hospitalizations increased, which points out the change in disease severity compared to that seen in the 1990s. We describe the epidemiology of dengue in Brazil, characterizing the changing patterns of it and DHF during the last 20 years. PMID:15705322

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

2016-04-01

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

Recent Advances in Dengue: Relevance to Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Noyd, David H.; Sharp, Tyler M.

2015-01-01

Dengue represents an increasingly important public health challenge in Puerto Rico, with recent epidemics in 2007, 2010, and 2012–2013. Although recent advances in dengue vaccine development offer hope for primary prevention, the role of health professionals in the diagnosis and management of dengue patients is paramount. Case definitions for dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue provide a framework to guide clinical decision-making. Furthermore, the differentiation between dengue and other acute febrile illnesses, such as leptospirosis and chikungunya, is necessary for the appropriate diagnosis and management of cases. An understanding of dengue epidemiology and surveillance in Puerto Rico provides context for clinicians in epidemic and non-epidemic periods. This review aims to improve health professionals’ ability to diagnose dengue, and as highlight the relevance of recent advances in dengue prevention and management in Puerto Rico. PMID:26061055

Simulation models examining the effect of Brugian filariasis on dengue epidemics.

PubMed

Vaughan, Jefferson A; Focks, Dana A; Turell, Michael J

2009-01-01

Concurrent ingestion of microfilariae (mf) and arboviruses by mosquitoes can enhance the transmission of virus compared with when virus is ingested alone. We studied the effect of mf enhancement on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of dengue 1 virus within Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by feeding mosquitoes on blood that either contained virus plus Brugia malayi mf or virus only. Mosquitoes were sampled over time to determine viral dissemination rates. Co-ingestion of mf and virus reduced viral EIP by over half. We used the computer simulation program, DENSiM, to compare the predicted patterns of dengue incidence that would result from such a shortened EIP versus the EIP derived from the control (i.e., virus only) group of mosquitoes. Results indicated that, over the 14-year simulation period, mf-induced acceleration of the EIP would generate more frequent (but not necessarily more severe) epidemics. Potential interactions between arboviruses and hematozoans deserve closer scrutiny.

Dengue Virus Type 3, Brazil, 2002

PubMed Central

Schatzmayr, Hermann Gonçalves; Bispo de Filippis, Ana Maria; Barreto dos Santos, Flávia; Venâncio da Cunha, Rivaldo; Coelho, Janice Oliveira; José de Souza, Luiz; Guimarães, Flávia Ramos; Machado de Araújo, Eliane Saraiva; De Simone, Thatiane Santos; Baran, Meri; Teixeira, Gualberto; Miagostovich, Marize Pereira

2005-01-01

During the summer of 2002, Rio de Janeiro had a large epidemic of dengue fever; 288,245 cases were reported. A subset of 1,831 dengue hemorrhagic fever cases occurred. In this study, performed in the first half of 2002, samples from 1,559 patients with suspected cases of dengue infection were analyzed. From this total, 1,497 were obtained from patients with nonfatal cases, and 62 were obtained from patients with fatal cases. By the use of different methods, 831 (53.3%) cases, including 40 fatal cases, were confirmed as dengue infection. When virus identification was successful, dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) was obtained in 99% of cases. Neurologic involvement was shown in 1 patient with encephalitis, confirmed by the detection of DENV-3 RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid. This explosive epidemic of DENV-3 was the most severe dengue epidemic reported in Brazil since dengue viruses were introduced in 1986. PMID:16229765

The role of transnational mobility in the local spread of mosquito-borne disease: Measuring the determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases initiating indigenous epidemics in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung

2014-05-01

Dengue fever is one of the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne diseases. International travelers who acquire dengue infection are important routes for virus transmission from one country to another one. Previous studies have shown that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. However, the spatial-temporal associations between imported cases and indigenous epidemics in areas with different social-economic conditions are still unclear. This study investigated determinants of spatial-temporal lags of imported dengue cases who initiated indigenous epidemics from 2003 to 2012 in Taiwan. The quantile regression is used to explore the associations between spatial-temporal lags of imported cases and social-economic indicators with geographic heterogeneity. Our results indicated that imported cases in April and May have statistically significant contribution to initiate indigenous epidemics. Areas with high population density and low average income have significant risk of being imported virus from other areas. However, the areas with imported cases are not significant transmission risk. The results imply that imported cases reported in early summer may be an early-warning indicator of indigenous epidemics. Local demographic and economic conditions, rather than imported cases, may determine the areas with the risk of indigenous epidemics.

Dengue Fever in American Military Personnel in the Philippines: Clinical Observations on Hospitalized Patients during a 1984 Epidemic

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

the mean maximum temperature was Hypotenson 15 (62.5) 102.0 + 1.3 F. A "saddle back" or dip- Rash (Non- Petechial ) 13 (54.2) hasic fever pattern was not...DENGUE FEVER IN AMERICAN MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE PHILIPPINES: CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS ON HOSPITALIZED PATIENS DURING A 1984 EPIDEMIC C.G. Hayes, T.F...Accession Tr~I Jti ti DENGUE FEVER IN AMERICAN MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE PHILIPPINES: CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS ON HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS DURING A 1984

Dengue in India

PubMed Central

Gupta, Nivedita; Srivastava, Sakshi; Jain, Amita; Chaturvedi, Umesh C.

2012-01-01

Dengue virus belongs to family Flaviviridae, having four serotypes that spread by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. It causes a wide spectrum of illness from mild asymptomatic illness to severe fatal dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Approximately 2.5 billion people live in dengue-risk regions with about 100 million new cases each year worldwide. The cumulative dengue diseases burden has attained an unprecedented proportion in recent times with sharp increase in the size of human population at risk. Dengue disease presents highly complex pathophysiological, economic and ecologic problems. In India, the first epidemic of clinical dengue-like illness was recorded in Madras (now Chennai) in 1780 and the first virologically proved epidemic of dengue fever (DF) occurred in Calcutta (now Kolkata) and Eastern Coast of India in 1963-1964. During the last 50 years a large number of physicians have treated and described dengue disease in India, but the scientific studies addressing various problems of dengue disease have been carried out at limited number of centres. Achievements of Indian scientists are considerable; however, a lot remain to be achieved for creating an impact. This paper briefly reviews the extent of work done by various groups of scientists in this country. PMID:23041731

Clinical Survey of Dengue Virus Circulation in the Republic of Djibouti between 2011 and 2014 Identifies Serotype 3 Epidemic and Recommends Clinical Diagnosis Guidelines for Resource Limited Settings.

PubMed

Le Gonidec, Erwan; Maquart, Marianne; Duron, Sandrine; Savini, Hélène; Cazajous, Geraldine; Vidal, Pierre-Olivier; Chenilleau, Marie-Caroline; Roseau, Jean-Baptiste; Benois, Alain; Dehan, Céline; Kugelman, Jeffrey; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Védy, Serge

2016-06-01

Dengue virus is endemic globally, throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions. While the number of epidemics due to the four DENV serotypes is pronounced in East Africa, the total number of cases reported in Africa (16 million infections) remained at low levels compared to Asia (70 million infections). The French Armed forces Health Service provides epidemiological surveillance support in the Republic of Djibouti through the Bouffard Military hospital. Between 2011 and 2014, clinical and biological data of suspected dengue syndromes were collected at the Bouffard Military hospital and analyzed to improve Dengue clinical diagnosis and evaluate its circulation in East Africa. Examining samples from patients that presented one or more Dengue-like symptoms the study evidenced 128 Dengue cases among 354 suspected cases (36.2% of the non-malarial Dengue-like syndromes). It also demonstrated the circulation of serotypes 1 and 2 and reports the first epidemic of serotype 3 infections in Djibouti which was found in all of the hospitalized patients in this study. Based on these results we have determined that screening for Malaria and the presence of the arthralgia, gastro-intestinal symptoms and lymphopenia < 1,000cell/ mm3 allows for negative predictive value and specificity of diagnosis in isolated areas superior to 80% up to day 6. This study also provides evidence for an epidemic of Dengue virus serotype 3 previously not detected in Djibouti.

Clinical Survey of Dengue Virus Circulation in the Republic of Djibouti between 2011 and 2014 Identifies Serotype 3 Epidemic and Recommends Clinical Diagnosis Guidelines for Resource Limited Settings

PubMed Central

Duron, Sandrine; Savini, Hélène; Cazajous, Geraldine; Vidal, Pierre-Olivier; Chenilleau, Marie-Caroline; Roseau, Jean-Baptiste; Benois, Alain; Dehan, Céline; Kugelman, Jeffrey; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Védy, Serge

2016-01-01

Dengue virus is endemic globally, throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions. While the number of epidemics due to the four DENV serotypes is pronounced in East Africa, the total number of cases reported in Africa (16 million infections) remained at low levels compared to Asia (70 million infections). The French Armed forces Health Service provides epidemiological surveillance support in the Republic of Djibouti through the Bouffard Military hospital. Between 2011 and 2014, clinical and biological data of suspected dengue syndromes were collected at the Bouffard Military hospital and analyzed to improve Dengue clinical diagnosis and evaluate its circulation in East Africa. Examining samples from patients that presented one or more Dengue-like symptoms the study evidenced 128 Dengue cases among 354 suspected cases (36.2% of the non-malarial Dengue-like syndromes). It also demonstrated the circulation of serotypes 1 and 2 and reports the first epidemic of serotype 3 infections in Djibouti which was found in all of the hospitalized patients in this study. Based on these results we have determined that screening for Malaria and the presence of the arthralgia, gastro-intestinal symptoms and lymphopenia < 1,000cell/ mm3 allows for negative predictive value and specificity of diagnosis in isolated areas superior to 80% up to day 6. This study also provides evidence for an epidemic of Dengue virus serotype 3 previously not detected in Djibouti. PMID:27322644

Epidemics Modelings: Some New Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boatto, Stefanella; Khouri, Renata Stella; Solerman, Lucas; Codeço, Claudia; Bonnet, Catherine

2010-09-01

Epidemics modeling has been particularly growing in the past years. In epidemics studies, mathematical modeling is used in particular to reach a better understanding of some neglected diseases (dengue, malaria, …) and of new emerging ones (SARS, influenza A,….) of big agglomerates. Such studies offer new challenges both from the modeling point of view (searching for simple models which capture the main characteristics of the disease spreading), data analysis and mathematical complexity. We are facing often with complex networks especially when modeling the city dynamics. Such networks can be static (in first approximation) and homogeneous, static and not homogeneous and/or not static (when taking into account the city structure, micro-climates, people circulation, etc.). The objective being studying epidemics dynamics and being able to predict its spreading.

Dengue fever.

PubMed

Skinner, Anita

Dengue fever is a notifiable infectious disease in England because of its geographic expansion and the increase in the number of epidemics. The article highlighted the importance of informing overseas travellers of the risk of acquiring dengue fever and advising them on personal protective measures.

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Pui-Jen; Teng, Hwa-Jen

2016-11-09

Aedes mosquitoes in Taiwan mainly comprise Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti. However, the species contributing to autochthonous dengue spread and the extent at which it occurs remain unclear. Thus, in this study, we spatially analyzed real data to determine spatial features related to local dengue incidence and mosquito density, particularly that of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti. We used bivariate Moran's I statistic and geographically weighted regression (GWR) spatial methods to analyze the globally spatial dependence and locally regressed relationship between (1) imported dengue incidences and Breteau indices (BIs) of Ae. albopictus, (2) imported dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (3) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (4) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (5) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (6) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (7) BI of Ae. albopictus and human population density, and (8) BI of Ae. aegypti and human population density in 348 townships in Taiwan. In the GWR models, regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti were significant and positive in most townships in Taiwan. However, Ae. albopictus had significant but negative regression coefficients in clusters of dengue epidemics. In the global bivariate Moran's index, spatial dependence between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti was significant and exhibited positive correlation in Taiwan (bivariate Moran's index = 0.51). However, Ae. albopictus exhibited positively significant but low correlation (bivariate Moran's index = 0.06). Similar results were observed in the two spatial methods between all dengue incidences and Aedes mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). The regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between imported dengue cases and Aedes mosquitoes

Dengue Virus 3 Genotype 1 Associated with Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Brazil

PubMed Central

Figueiredo, Leandra Barcelos; Cecílio, Alzira Batista; Ferreira, Gustavo Portela; Drumond, Betânia Paiva; Germano de Oliveira, Jaquelline; Bonjardim, Cláudio Antônio; Ferreira, Paulo César Peregrino

2008-01-01

Dengue serotype 3 viruses were isolated from patients in Brazil from 2002 through 2004. On the basis of phylogenetic analyses, these isolates were assigned genotype 1. This genotype had never been reported in South America before. Its appearance indicates a major risk factor for dengue epidemics and severe disease. PMID:18258129

Spatiotemporal responses of dengue fever transmission to the road network in an urban area.

PubMed

Li, Qiaoxuan; Cao, Wei; Ren, Hongyan; Ji, Zhonglin; Jiang, Huixian

2018-07-01

Urbanization is one of the important factors leading to the spread of dengue fever. Recently, some studies found that the road network as an urbanization factor affects the distribution and spread of dengue epidemic, but the study of relationship between the distribution of dengue epidemic and road network is limited, especially in highly urbanized areas. This study explores the temporal and spatial spread characteristics of dengue fever in the distribution of road network by observing a dengue epidemic in the southern Chinese cities. Geographic information technology is used to extract the spatial location of cases and explore the temporal and spatial changes of dengue epidemic and its spatial relationship with road network. The results showed that there was a significant "severe" period in the temporal change of dengue epidemic situation, and the cases were mainly concentrated in the vicinity of narrow roads, the spread of the epidemic mainly along the high-density road network area. These results show that high-density road network is an important factor to the direction and scale of dengue epidemic. This information may be helpful to the development of related epidemic prevention and control strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Epidemiological dynamics of Dengue on Easter Island].

PubMed

Canals, Mauricio; González, Christian; Canals, Andrea; Figueroa, Daniela

2012-08-01

Dengue is considered an emerging disease with an increasing prevalence especially in South America. In 2002, an epidemic of classic Dengue (DENV-1) occurred unexpectedly on Easter Island, where it had never been detected before. It reappeared in 2006-2007 and 2008, 2009 and 2011. The aim of this study was to estimate the most relevant parameters of the epidemiological dynamics of transmission of Dengue on Easter Island and to model the dynamics since 2002, comparing the predictions with the actual situation observed. Of the total cases, 52.27% were females and 47.73% men. The average age of infection was 31.38 ± 18.37 years, similar in men and women. We estimated the reproductive number R0 = 3.005 with an IC0,95 = [1.92, 4.61]. The inter-epidemic period reached an estimated T = 5.20 to 6.8 years. The case simulation showed recurrent epidemics with decreasing magnitude (damped oscillations), which is a known phenomenon in models of dengue and malaria. There was good qualitative fit to the epidemiological dynamics from 2002 onwards. It accurately predicted the rise in cases between 2006 and 2011. The predicted number of cases during the 2002 epidemic is greater than the confirmed cases and the predicted epidemic was faster than notified cases. Interepidemic period in the simulation was 6.72 years between 2002 and 2008 and 4.68 years between 2008 and 2013. From the theoretical perspective, the first epidemic had affected 94% of the population (approximately 3500 cases), but 639 were reported suggesting underreporting and a lot of sub-clinical cases occurred. Future epidemic of decreasing size are expected, although the main danger are epidemics of hemorrhagic dengue fever resulting from the introduction of different dengue virus serotypes.

Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

2016-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005–2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. PMID:26572871

Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

2016-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005-2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

PubMed Central

Gubler, Duane J.

1998-01-01

Dengue fever, a very old disease, has reemerged in the past 20 years with an expanded geographic distribution of both the viruses and the mosquito vectors, increased epidemic activity, the development of hyperendemicity (the cocirculation of multiple serotypes), and the emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in new geographic regions. In 1998 this mosquito-borne disease is the most important tropical infectious disease after malaria, with an estimated 100 million cases of dengue fever, 500,000 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 25,000 deaths annually. The reasons for this resurgence and emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the waning years of the 20th century are complex and not fully understood, but demographic, societal, and public health infrastructure changes in the past 30 years have contributed greatly. This paper reviews the changing epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever by geographic region, the natural history and transmission cycles, clinical diagnosis of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, serologic and virologic laboratory diagnoses, pathogenesis, surveillance, prevention, and control. A major challenge for public health officials in all tropical areas of the world is to devleop and implement sustainable prevention and control programs that will reverse the trend of emergent dengue hemorrhagic fever. PMID:9665979

Empirical evidence of the effect of school gathering on the dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

Hernández-Suárez, Carlos M; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver

2016-01-01

Dengue fever is an important vector-transmitted disease that affects more than 100 countries worldwide. Locations where individuals tend to gather may play an important role in disease transmission in the presence of the vector. By controlling mosquitoes' breeding places, this study aims to analyze the effect of reducing transmission in elementary schools (grades 1-9) on the dynamics of the epidemic at a regional level. In 2007, we implemented a massive campaign in a region of México (Colima state, 5,191 km(2), population 568,000) focused on training janitors to locate and avoid mosquitoes' breeding places, the objective being to maintain elementary schools free of mosquitoes. We observed 45% reduction in dengue incidence compared to the previous year. In contrast, the rest of Mexico observed an 81% increase in incidence on average. Costs associated with campaigns focusing on cleaning schools are very low and results seem to be promising. Nevertheless, more controlled studies are needed.

Empirical evidence of the effect of school gathering on the dynamics of dengue epidemics

PubMed Central

Hernández-Suárez, Carlos M.; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver

2016-01-01

Introduction Dengue fever is an important vector-transmitted disease that affects more than 100 countries worldwide. Locations where individuals tend to gather may play an important role in disease transmission in the presence of the vector. By controlling mosquitoes’ breeding places, this study aims to analyze the effect of reducing transmission in elementary schools (grades 1–9) on the dynamics of the epidemic at a regional level. Materials and methods In 2007, we implemented a massive campaign in a region of México (Colima state, 5,191 km2, population 568,000) focused on training janitors to locate and avoid mosquitoes’ breeding places, the objective being to maintain elementary schools free of mosquitoes. Results We observed 45% reduction in dengue incidence compared to the previous year. In contrast, the rest of Mexico observed an 81% increase in incidence on average. Discussion Costs associated with campaigns focusing on cleaning schools are very low and results seem to be promising. Nevertheless, more controlled studies are needed. PMID:26743450

Optimization model of vaccination strategy for dengue transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widayani, H.; Kallista, M.; Nuraini, N.; Sari, M. Y.

2014-02-01

Dengue fever is emerging tropical and subtropical disease caused by dengue virus infection. The vaccination should be done as a prevention of epidemic in population. The host-vector model are modified with consider a vaccination factor to prevent the occurrence of epidemic dengue in a population. An optimal vaccination strategy using non-linear objective function was proposed. The genetic algorithm programming techniques are combined with fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to construct the optimal vaccination. In this paper, the appropriate vaccination strategy by using the optimal minimum cost function which can reduce the number of epidemic was analyzed. The numerical simulation for some specific cases of vaccination strategy is shown.

The Dengue Vaccine Pipeline: Implications for the Future of Dengue Control

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Lauren M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Durbin, Anna P.; Longini, Ira M.

2015-01-01

Dengue has become the most rapidly expanding mosquito-borne infectious disease on the planet, surpassing malaria and infecting at least 390 million people per year. There is no effective treatment for dengue illness other than supportive care, especially for severe cases. Symptoms can be mild or life-threatening as in dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. Vector control has been only partially successful in decreasing dengue transmission. The potential use of safe and effective tetravalent dengue vaccines is an attractive addition to prevent disease or minimize the possibility of epidemics. There are currently no licensed dengue vaccines. This review summarizes the current status of all dengue vaccine candidates in clinical evaluation. Currently five candidate vaccines are in human clinical trials. One has completed two Phase III trials, two are in Phase II trials, and three are in Phase I testing. PMID:25989449

Dengue Surveillance in Veterans Affairs Healthcare Facilities, 2007–2010

PubMed Central

Schirmer, Patricia L.; Lucero-Obusan, Cynthia A.; Benoit, Stephen R.; Santiago, Luis M.; Stanek, Danielle; Dey, Achintya; Martinez, Mirsonia; Oda, Gina; Holodniy, Mark

2013-01-01

Background Although dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico (PR), 2007 and 2010 were recognized as epidemic years. In the continental United States (US), outside of the Texas-Mexico border, there had not been a dengue outbreak since 1946 until dengue re-emerged in Key West, Florida (FL), in 2009–2010. The objective of this study was to use electronic and manual surveillance systems to identify dengue cases in Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare facilities and then to clinically compare dengue cases in Veterans presenting for care in PR and in FL. Methodology Outpatient encounters from 1/2007–12/2010 and inpatient admissions (only available from 10/2009–12/2010) with dengue diagnostic codes at all VA facilities were identified using VA's Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE). Additional case sources included VA data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention BioSense and VA infection preventionists. Case reviews were performed. Categorical data was compared using Mantel-Haenszel or Fisher Exact tests and continuous variables using t-tests. Dengue case residence was mapped. Findings Two hundred eighty-eight and 21 PR and FL dengue cases respectively were identified. Of 21 FL cases, 12 were exposed in Key West and 9 were imported. During epidemic years, FL cases had significantly increased dengue testing and intensive care admissions, but lower hospitalization rates and headache or eye pain symptoms compared to PR cases. There were no significant differences in clinical symptoms, laboratory abnormalities or outcomes between epidemic and non-epidemic year cases in FL and PR. Confirmed/probable cases were significantly more likely to be hospitalized and have thrombocytopenia or leukopenia compared to suspected cases. Conclusions Dengue re-introduction in the continental US warrants increased dengue surveillance and education in VA. Throughout VA, under-testing of suspected cases highlights the need to emphasize use

Increasing Clinical Severity during a Dengue Virus Type 3 Cuban Epidemic: Deep Sequencing of Evolving Viral Populations

PubMed Central

Blanc, Hervé; Bordería, Antonio V.; Díaz, Gisell; Henningsson, Rasmus; Gonzalez, Daniel; Santana, Emidalys; Alvarez, Mayling; Castro, Osvaldo; Fontes, Magnus; Vignuzzi, Marco; Guzman, Maria G.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT During the dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) epidemic that occurred in Havana in 2001 to 2002, severe disease was associated with the infection sequence DENV-1 followed by DENV-3 (DENV-1/DENV-3), while the sequence DENV-2/DENV-3 was associated with mild/asymptomatic infections. To determine the role of the virus in the increasing severity demonstrated during the epidemic, serum samples collected at different time points were studied. A total of 22 full-length sequences were obtained using a deep-sequencing approach. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of consensus sequences revealed that two DENV-3 lineages were circulating in Havana at that time, both grouped within genotype III. The predominant lineage is closely related to Peruvian and Ecuadorian strains, while the minor lineage is related to Venezuelan strains. According to consensus sequences, relatively few nonsynonymous mutations were observed; only one was fixed during the epidemic at position 4380 in the NS2B gene. Intrahost genetic analysis indicated that a significant minor population was selected and became predominant toward the end of the epidemic. In conclusion, greater variability was detected during the epidemic's progression in terms of significant minority variants, particularly in the nonstructural genes. An increasing trend of genetic diversity toward the end of the epidemic was observed only for synonymous variant allele rates, with higher variability in secondary cases. Remarkably, significant intrahost genetic variation was demonstrated within the same patient during the course of secondary infection with DENV-1/DENV-3, including changes in the structural proteins premembrane (PrM) and envelope (E). Therefore, the dynamic of evolving viral populations in the context of heterotypic antibodies could be related to the increasing clinical severity observed during the epidemic. IMPORTANCE Based on the evidence that DENV fitness is context dependent, our research has focused on the study of viral

Describing dengue epidemics: Insights from simple mechanistic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Stollenwerk, Nico; Kooi, Bob W.

2012-09-01

We present a set of nested models to be applied to dengue fever epidemiology. We perform a qualitative study in order to show how much complexity we really need to add into epidemiological models to be able to describe the fluctuations observed in empirical dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence data offering a promising perspective on inference of parameter values from dengue case notifications.

[Dengue in Panama, 1993].

PubMed

Quiroz, E; Ortega, M; Guzmán, M G; Vázquez, S; Pelegrino, J L; Campos, C; Bayard, V; Vázquez, M; Kourí, G

1997-01-01

Up to 1993, Panama was the only country in Central America where the autochthonous transmission of dengue virus had been detected without experimenting an explosive epidemic despite being reinfected with the Aedes aegypti mosquito since 1985. The characteristics of this first outbreak reported on November 19, 1993, are described in this paper. It is shown that even when there is a Program for the Surveillance and Control of Dengue, which considers low levels of Aedes aegypti infection and a system for the early detection of the virus, the epidemics appear if the community does not take an active part as it happened in 1994, 1995, and 1996. The 14 cases reported were located in an area under the responsibility of the Health Center in San Isidro, Belisario Porras, Special District of San Miguelito, in Panama City (13 cases in 4 blocks of the sector of Santa Librada and 1 case in San Isidro Valley). 3 patients were under 15 and 8 over 36, the other 3 were between 15 and 24.9 were females. The dengue type 2 virus was isolated in 3 patients. The presence of IgM and IgG antibodies to dengue was demonstrated in 11 patients, whereas in 8 over 20 it was observed a secondary type answer. According to the clinical picture, the epidemic was classified as dengue fever. The seroepidemiological survey carried out in the sector of Santa Librada and its surroundings 5 months after the appearance of the symptoms in the first case showed a prevalence of antibodies to dengue of 5.7% (46/802), mainly among individuals over 44. These results confirmed that the outbreak was geographically limited.

Using Web Search Query Data to Monitor Dengue Epidemics: A New Model for Neglected Tropical Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Chan, Emily H.; Sahai, Vikram; Conrad, Corrie; Brownstein, John S.

2011-01-01

Background A variety of obstacles including bureaucracy and lack of resources have interfered with timely detection and reporting of dengue cases in many endemic countries. Surveillance efforts have turned to modern data sources, such as Internet search queries, which have been shown to be effective for monitoring influenza-like illnesses. However, few have evaluated the utility of web search query data for other diseases, especially those of high morbidity and mortality or where a vaccine may not exist. In this study, we aimed to assess whether web search queries are a viable data source for the early detection and monitoring of dengue epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore were chosen for analysis based on available data and adequate search volume. For each country, a univariate linear model was then built by fitting a time series of the fraction of Google search query volume for specific dengue-related queries from that country against a time series of official dengue case counts for a time-frame within 2003–2010. The specific combination of queries used was chosen to maximize model fit. Spurious spikes in the data were also removed prior to model fitting. The final models, fit using a training subset of the data, were cross-validated against both the overall dataset and a holdout subset of the data. All models were found to fit the data quite well, with validation correlations ranging from 0.82 to 0.99. Conclusions/Significance Web search query data were found to be capable of tracking dengue activity in Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore. Whereas traditional dengue data from official sources are often not available until after some substantial delay, web search query data are available in near real-time. These data represent valuable complement to assist with traditional dengue surveillance. PMID:21647308

Using web search query data to monitor dengue epidemics: a new model for neglected tropical disease surveillance.

PubMed

Chan, Emily H; Sahai, Vikram; Conrad, Corrie; Brownstein, John S

2011-05-01

A variety of obstacles including bureaucracy and lack of resources have interfered with timely detection and reporting of dengue cases in many endemic countries. Surveillance efforts have turned to modern data sources, such as Internet search queries, which have been shown to be effective for monitoring influenza-like illnesses. However, few have evaluated the utility of web search query data for other diseases, especially those of high morbidity and mortality or where a vaccine may not exist. In this study, we aimed to assess whether web search queries are a viable data source for the early detection and monitoring of dengue epidemics. Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore were chosen for analysis based on available data and adequate search volume. For each country, a univariate linear model was then built by fitting a time series of the fraction of Google search query volume for specific dengue-related queries from that country against a time series of official dengue case counts for a time-frame within 2003-2010. The specific combination of queries used was chosen to maximize model fit. Spurious spikes in the data were also removed prior to model fitting. The final models, fit using a training subset of the data, were cross-validated against both the overall dataset and a holdout subset of the data. All models were found to fit the data quite well, with validation correlations ranging from 0.82 to 0.99. Web search query data were found to be capable of tracking dengue activity in Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Singapore. Whereas traditional dengue data from official sources are often not available until after some substantial delay, web search query data are available in near real-time. These data represent valuable complement to assist with traditional dengue surveillance.

Clinical, virological and epidemiological characterization of dengue outbreak in Myanmar, 2015.

PubMed

Kyaw, A K; Ngwe Tun, M M; Moi, M L; Nabeshima, T; Soe, K T; Thwe, S M; Myint, A A; Maung, K T T; Aung, W; Hayasaka, D; Buerano, C C; Thant, K Z; Morita, K

2017-07-01

Hospital-based surveillance was conducted at two widely separated regions in Myanmar during the 2015 dengue epidemic. Acute phase serum samples were collected from 332 clinically diagnosed dengue patients during the peak season of dengue cases. Viremia levels were measured by quantitative real-time PCR and plaque assays using FcγRIIA-expressing and non-FcγRIIA-expressing BHK cells to specifically determine the infectious virus particles. By serology and molecular techniques, 280/332 (84·3%) were confirmed as dengue patients. All four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV) were isolated from among 104 laboratory-confirmed patients including two cases infected with two DENV serotypes. High percentage of primary infection was noted among the severe dengue patients. Patients with primary infection or DENV IgM negative demonstrated significantly higher viral loads but there was no significant difference among the severity groups. Viremia levels among dengue patients were notably high for a long period which was assumed to support the spread of the virus by the mosquito vector during epidemic. Phylogenetic analyses of the envelope gene of the epidemic strains revealed close similarity with the strains previously isolated in Myanmar and neighboring countries. DENV-1 dominated the epidemic in 2015 and the serotype (except DENV-3) and genotype distributions were similar in both study sites.

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia

PubMed Central

van Panhuis, Willem G.; Choisy, Marc; Xiong, Xin; Chok, Nian Shong; Akarasewi, Pasakorn; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Lam, Sai K.; Chong, Chee K.; Lam, Fook C.; Phommasak, Bounlay; Vongphrachanh, Phengta; Bouaphanh, Khamphaphongphane; Rekol, Huy; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Thai, Pham Quang; Duong, Tran Nhu; Chuang, Jen-Hsiang; Liu, Yu-Lun; Ng, Lee-Ching; Shi, Yuan; Tayag, Enrique A.; Roque, Vito G.; Lee Suy, Lyndon L.; Jarman, Richard G.; Gibbons, Robert V.; Velasco, John Mark S.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Burke, Donald S.; Cummings, Derek A. T.

2015-01-01

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼107 km2. We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997–1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001–2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997–1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2–5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia. PMID:26438851

Dengue fever in Pakistan: a paradigm shift; changing epidemiology and clinical patterns.

PubMed

Haider, Zahra; Ahmad, Farina Zia; Mahmood, Asif; Waseem, Tariq; Shafiq, Irfan; Raza, Tanzeem; Qazi, Javaria; Siddique, Nasir; Humayun, Malik Asif

2015-11-01

Dengue fever has huge public health implications and affects over 100 million people worldwide. This review pictures the current situation of Dengue in Pakistan and presents a review of published literature. Pakistan has seen recurrent epidemics of Dengue Fever recently. Unfortunately, these epidemics are becoming more severe in their clinical manifestation. Pakistan experienced large epidemics of dengue fever during 2008, 2010 and 2011 affecting thousands of people and claiming hundreds of deaths. A comparison of data during these epidemics indicates a shift from mild to a more severe disease, which could be interpreted as an epidemiologic transition pattern in the country. Expansion of Dengue in Pakistan seems to be multifactorial, including the climate change, frequent natural disasters, vector resistance to insecticides and lack of resources. This highlights the need for rigorous vector control. Continuing education of primary care physicians is crucial for early appropriate management to reduce mortality. © Royal Society for Public Health 2015.

Dengue in the Americas and Southeast Asia: do they differ?

PubMed

Halstead, Scott B

2006-12-01

The populations of Southeast Asia (SE Asia) and tropical America are similar, and all four dengue viruses of Asian origin are endemic in both regions. Yet, during comparable 5-year periods, SE Asia experienced 1.16 million cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), principally in children, whereas in the Americas there were 2.8 million dengue fever (DF) cases, principally in adults, and only 65,000 DHF cases. This review aims to explain these regional differences. In SE Asia, World War II amplified Aedes aegypti populations and the spread of dengue viruses. In the Americas, efforts to eradicate A. aegypti in the 1940s and 1950s contained dengue epidemics mainly to the Caribbean Basin. Cuba escaped infections with the American genotype dengue-2 and an Asian dengue-3 endemic in the 1960s and 1970s. Successive infections with dengue-1 and an Asian genotype dengue-2 resulted in the 1981 DHF epidemic. When this dengue-2 virus was introduced in other Caribbean countries, it encountered populations highly immune to the American genotype dengue-2. During the 1980s and 1990s, rapidly expanding populations of A. aegypti in Brazil permitted successive epidemics of dengue-1, -2, and -3. These exposures, however, resulted mainly in DF, with surprisingly few cases of DHF. The absence of high rates of severe dengue disease in Brazil, as elsewhere in the Americas, may be partly explained by the widespread prevalence of human dengue resistance genes. Understanding the nature and distribution of these genes holds promise for containing severe dengue. Future research on dengue infections should emphasize population-based designs.

An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan).

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, José M; Cheng, Ming-Hung; Wu, Jiaping; Christakos, George

2014-05-01

The emergence and re-emergence of disease epidemics is a complex question that may be influenced by diverse factors, including the space-time dynamics of human populations, environmental conditions, and associated uncertainties. This study proposes a stochastic framework to integrate space-time dynamics in the form of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, together with uncertain disease observations, into a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) framework. The resulting model (BME-SIR) can be used to predict space-time disease spread. Specifically, it was applied to obtain a space-time prediction of the dengue fever (DF) epidemic that took place in Kaohsiung City (Taiwan) during 2002. In implementing the model, the SIR parameters were continually updated and information on new cases of infection was incorporated. The results obtained show that the proposed model is rigorous to user-specified initial values of unknown model parameters, that is, transmission and recovery rates. In general, this model provides a good characterization of the spatial diffusion of the DF epidemic, especially in the city districts proximal to the location of the outbreak. Prediction performance may be affected by various factors, such as virus serotypes and human intervention, which can change the space-time dynamics of disease diffusion. The proposed BME-SIR disease prediction model can provide government agencies with a valuable reference for the timely identification, control, and prevention of DF spread in space and time. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development.

PubMed

Pollett, S; Melendrez, M C; Maljkovic Berry, I; Duchêne, S; Salje, H; Dat, Cummings; Jarman, R G

2018-04-25

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dengue Outbreak in Hadramout, Yemen, 2010: An Epidemiological Perspective

PubMed Central

Ghouth, Abdulla Salim Bin; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Letson, G. William

2012-01-01

We analyzed surveillance data of a dengue outbreak (2010) reported to the Hadramout Health Office (Yemen) and retrospectively analyzed dengue-related epidemiological and entomological events reported in Hadramout from 2005 to 2009. A total of 630 immunoglobulin M (IgM) -confirmed dengue cases of 982 febrile cases was reported during the period from February to June of 2010; 12 cases died, giving case fatality a rate of 1.9%. Among febrile cases, the highest proportion of dengue cases (37.3%) was reported in the 15- to 24-year-old age group. The overall attack rate was 0.89/1,000. The average number of cases reported by month over the preceding 5-year period compared with the 2010 data is consistent with endemicity of dengue in the region and supports epidemic designation for the dengue activity in 2010. Recognition of endemic dengue transmission and potential for substantial dengue epidemics highlight the need for consistent laboratory-based surveillance that can support prevention and control activities accordingly. PMID:22665621

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia.

PubMed

Romero-Vega, Liliana; Pacheco, Oscar; de la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando; Díaz-Quijano, Fredi Alexander

2014-12-01

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Costs of Dengue Control Activities and Hospitalizations in the Public Health Sector during an Epidemic Year in Urban Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Thalagala, Neil; Tissera, Hasitha; Palihawadana, Paba; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Ambagahawita, Anuradha; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Shepard, Donald S.; Tozan, Yeşim

2016-01-01

Background Reported as a public health problem since the 1960s in Sri Lanka, dengue has become a high priority disease for public health authorities. The Ministry of Health is responsible for controlling dengue and other disease outbreaks and associated health care. The involvement of large numbers of public health staff in dengue control activities year-round and the provision of free medical care to dengue patients at secondary care hospitals place a formidable financial burden on the public health sector. Methods We estimated the public sector costs of dengue control activities and the direct costs of hospitalizations in Colombo, the most heavily urbanized district in Sri Lanka, during the epidemic year of 2012 from the Ministry of Health’s perspective. The financial costs borne by public health agencies and hospitals are collected using cost extraction tools designed specifically for the study and analysed retrospectively using a combination of activity-based and gross costing approaches. Results The total cost of dengue control and reported hospitalizations was estimated at US$3.45 million (US$1.50 per capita) in Colombo district in 2012. Personnel costs accounted for the largest shares of the total costs of dengue control activities (79%) and hospitalizations (46%). The results indicated a per capita cost of US$0.42 for dengue control activities. The average costs per hospitalization ranged between US$216–609 for pediatric cases and between US$196–866 for adult cases according to disease severity and treatment setting. Conclusions This analysis is a first attempt to assess the economic burden of dengue response in the public health sector in Sri Lanka. Country-specific evidence is needed for setting public health priorities and deciding about the deployment of existing or new technologies. Our results suggest that dengue poses a major economic burden on the public health sector in Sri Lanka. PMID:26910907

Costs of Dengue Control Activities and Hospitalizations in the Public Health Sector during an Epidemic Year in Urban Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Thalagala, Neil; Tissera, Hasitha; Palihawadana, Paba; Amarasinghe, Ananda; Ambagahawita, Anuradha; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Shepard, Donald S; Tozan, Yeşim

2016-02-01

Reported as a public health problem since the 1960s in Sri Lanka, dengue has become a high priority disease for public health authorities. The Ministry of Health is responsible for controlling dengue and other disease outbreaks and associated health care. The involvement of large numbers of public health staff in dengue control activities year-round and the provision of free medical care to dengue patients at secondary care hospitals place a formidable financial burden on the public health sector. We estimated the public sector costs of dengue control activities and the direct costs of hospitalizations in Colombo, the most heavily urbanized district in Sri Lanka, during the epidemic year of 2012 from the Ministry of Health's perspective. The financial costs borne by public health agencies and hospitals are collected using cost extraction tools designed specifically for the study and analysed retrospectively using a combination of activity-based and gross costing approaches. The total cost of dengue control and reported hospitalizations was estimated at US$3.45 million (US$1.50 per capita) in Colombo district in 2012. Personnel costs accounted for the largest shares of the total costs of dengue control activities (79%) and hospitalizations (46%). The results indicated a per capita cost of US$0.42 for dengue control activities. The average costs per hospitalization ranged between US$216-609 for pediatric cases and between US$196-866 for adult cases according to disease severity and treatment setting. This analysis is a first attempt to assess the economic burden of dengue response in the public health sector in Sri Lanka. Country-specific evidence is needed for setting public health priorities and deciding about the deployment of existing or new technologies. Our results suggest that dengue poses a major economic burden on the public health sector in Sri Lanka.

The cross wavelet analysis of dengue fever variability influenced by meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

The multiyear variation of meteorological conditions induced by climate change causes the changing diffusion pattern of infectious disease and serious epidemic situation. Among them, dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne diseases distributed in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue virus is transmitted by several species of mosquito and causing lots amount of human deaths every year around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological variables to the temporal variation of dengue fever epidemic in southern Taiwan. Several extreme and average indices of meteorological variables, i.e. temperature and humidity, were used for this analysis, including averaged, maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall, maximum 1-hr rainfall, and maximum 24-hr rainfall. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship of meteorological variables and dengue fever epidemic, finding the non-stationary time-frequency relationship and phase lag effects of those time series from 1998-2011 by using cross wavelet method. Results show that meteorological variables all have a significant time-frequency correlation region to dengue fever epidemic in frequency about one year (52 weeks). The associated phases can range from 0 to 90 degrees (0-13 weeks lag from meteorological factors to dengue incidences). Keywords: dengue fever, cross wavelet analysis, meteorological factor

Clinical profile and outcome of Dengue fever cases.

PubMed

Ratageri, Vinod H; Shepur, T A; Wari, P K; Chavan, S C; Mujahid, I B; Yergolkar, P N

2005-08-01

Dengue fever is on rise globally. In India, Dengue epidemics are expanding geographically, even into the rural areas. Dengue can present with varied manifestations. The mortality rate has been brought down with high index of suspicion, strict monitoring and proper fluid resuscitation. Herewith, we are presenting clinical features and outcome of Dengue cases seen in and around Hubli (North Karnataka).

The seroprevalence and seroincidence of dengue virus infection in western Kenya.

PubMed

Blaylock, Jason M; Maranich, Ashley; Bauer, Kristen; Nyakoe, Nancy; Waitumbi, John; Martinez, Luis J; Lynch, Julia

2011-09-01

Epidemics of dengue fever have been documented throughout the African continent over the past several decades, however little is known about the prevalence or incidence of dengue virus infection in the absence of an outbreak. No studies have analyzed the prevalence of dengue infection in western Kenya to date. This study describes the seroincidence and seroprevalence of dengue infection in western Kenya. Banked sera obtained from 354 healthy, afebrile children ages 12-47 months from Kisumu District, Kenya, were analyzed for antibodies to dengue virus using an IgG indirect ELISA. We found a seroprevalence of 1.1% (4 of 354 samples) and incidence of 8.5 seroconversions per 1000 persons per year in this study population. This appears to be similar to that previously reported in coastal regions of the country outside of known epidemic periods. Since there has never been a reported dengue epidemic in western Kenya, continued investigation and evaluation in a patient population presenting with fever is necessary to further confirm this finding. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sentinel surveillance of imported dengue via travellers to Europe 2012 to 2014: TropNet data from the DengueTools Research Initiative

PubMed Central

Neumayr, Andreas; Muñoz, Jose; Schunk, Mirjam; Bottieau, Emmanuel; Cramer, Jakob; Calleri, Guido; López-Vélez, Rogelio; Angheben, Andrea; Zoller, Thomas; Visser, Leo; Serre-Delcor, Núria; Genton, Blaise; Castelli, Francesco; Van Esbroeck, Marjan; Matteelli, Alberto; Rochat, Laurence; Sulleiro, Elena; Kurth, Florian; Gobbi, Federico; Norman, Francesca; Torta, Ilaria; Clerinx, Jan; Poluda, David; Martinez, Miguel; Calvo-Cano, Antonia; Sanchez-Seco, Maria Paz; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Hatz, Christoph; Franco, Leticia

2017-01-01

We describe the epidemiological pattern and genetic characteristics of 242 acute dengue infections imported to Europe by returning travellers from 2012 to 2014. The overall geographical pattern of imported dengue (South-east Asia > Americas > western Pacific region > Africa) remained stable compared with 1999 to 2010. We isolated the majority of dengue virus genotypes and epidemic lineages causing outbreaks and epidemics in Asia, America and Africa during the study period. Travellers acted as sentinels for four unusual dengue outbreaks (Madeira, 2012–13; Luanda, 2013; Dar es Salaam, 2014; Tokyo, 2014). We were able to characterise dengue viruses imported from regions where currently no virological surveillance data are available. Up to 36% of travellers infected with dengue while travelling returned during the acute phase of the infection (up to 7 days after symptom onset) or became symptomatic after returning to Europe, and 58% of the patients with acute dengue infection were viraemic when seeking medical care. Epidemiological and virological data from dengue-infected international travellers can add an important layer to global surveillance efforts. A considerable number of dengue-infected travellers are viraemic after arrival back home, which poses a risk for dengue introduction and autochthonous transmission in European regions where suitable mosquito vectors are prevalent. PMID:28080959

Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; He, Jianfeng; Song, Tie; Zhang, Meng; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Xie, Runsheng; Zhong, Haojie; Wu, Xiaocheng; Hu, Wenbiao; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-08-02

Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

An online spatio-temporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ming-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, Jose; Christakos, George

2013-04-01

Dengue Fever (DF) is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and subtropical areas. DF epidemics occur in Taiwan annually especially during summer and fall seasons. Kaohsiung city has been one of the major DF hotspots in decades. The emergence and re-emergence of the DF epidemic is complex and can be influenced by various factors including space-time dynamics of human and vector populations and virus serotypes as well as the associated uncertainties. This study integrates a stochastic space-time "Susceptible-Infected-Recovered" model under Bayesian maximum entropy framework (BME-SIR) to perform real-time prediction of disease diffusion across space-time. The proposed model is applied for spatiotemporal prediction of the DF epidemic at Kaohsiung city during 2002 when the historical series of high DF cases was recorded. The online prediction by BME-SIR model updates the parameters of SIR model and infected cases across districts over time. Results show that the proposed model is rigorous to initial guess of unknown model parameters, i.e. transmission and recovery rates, which can depend upon the virus serotypes and various human interventions. This study shows that spatial diffusion can be well characterized by BME-SIR model, especially at the district surrounding the disease outbreak locations. The prediction performance at DF hotspots, i.e. Cianjhen and Sanmin, can be degraded due to the implementation of various disease control strategies during the epidemics. The proposed online disease prediction BME-SIR model can provide the governmental agency with a valuable reference to timely identify, control, and efficiently prevent DF spread across space-time.

Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection.

PubMed

Jafaruddin; Indratno, Sapto W; Nuraini, Nuning; Supriatna, Asep K; Soewono, Edy

2015-01-01

Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

PubMed Central

lu, Liang; Bi, Peng; Lv, Ming; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Background There was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013. Methodology and Principal Findings Records of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1–3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province. Conclusions Repeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and

Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall.

PubMed

Hii, Yien Ling; Zhu, Huaiping; Ng, Nawi; Ng, Lee Ching; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

An accurate early warning system to predict impending epidemics enhances the effectiveness of preventive measures against dengue fever. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a forecasting model that could predict dengue cases and provide timely early warning in Singapore. We developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall over the period 2000-2010. Weather data were modeled using piecewise linear spline functions. We analyzed various lag times between dengue and weather variables to identify the optimal dengue forecasting period. Autoregression, seasonality and trend were considered in the model. We validated the model by forecasting dengue cases for week 1 of 2011 up to week 16 of 2012 using weather data alone. Model selection and validation were based on Akaike's Information Criterion, standardized Root Mean Square Error, and residuals diagnoses. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to analyze the sensitivity of the forecast of epidemics. The optimal period for dengue forecast was 16 weeks. Our model forecasted correctly with errors of 0.3 and 0.32 of the standard deviation of reported cases during the model training and validation periods, respectively. It was sensitive enough to distinguish between outbreak and non-outbreak to a 96% (CI = 93-98%) in 2004-2010 and 98% (CI = 95%-100%) in 2011. The model predicted the outbreak in 2011 accurately with less than 3% possibility of false alarm. We have developed a weather-based dengue forecasting model that allows warning 16 weeks in advance of dengue epidemics with high sensitivity and specificity. We demonstrate that models using temperature and rainfall could be simple, precise, and low cost tools for dengue forecasting which could be used to enhance decision making on the timing, scale of vector control operations, and utilization of limited resources.

Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

PubMed

Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-05-01

Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Duration of Dengue Viremia in Blood Donors and Relationships Between Donor Viremia, Infection Incidence and Clinical Case Reports During a Large Epidemic

PubMed Central

Busch, Michael P.; Sabino, Ester C.; Brambilla, Donald; Lopes, Maria Esther; Capuani, Ligia; Chowdhury, Dhuly; McClure, Christopher; Linnen, Jeffrey M.; Prince, Harry; Simmons, Graham; Lee, Tzong-Hae; Kleinman, Steven; Custer, Brian

2016-01-01

Background. Dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) pose a transfusion-transmission risk. This study estimated the dengue RNA detection period in asymptomatic blood donors and relationships between donor viremia and dengue incidence during a large epidemic. Methods. Donor samples from the 2012 dengue transmission season in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were tested for DENV RNA by a transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) assay, with DENV types and viral loads determined by polymerase chain reaction. Samples collected during the first and last weeks of enrollment were tested for DENV immunoglobulin (Ig) G and IgM to estimate incidence during the study period, which was analyzed relative to nucleic acid amplification technology (NAT) yield to estimate the duration of NAT-detectable viremia and compared with reported clinical dengue cases in Rio. Results. Samples from 16 241 donations were tested; 87 (0.54%) were confirmed as DENV-4 RNA positive. Dengue IgM-positive/IgG-positive reactivity increased from 2.8% to 8.8%, indicating a 6.2% incidence (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2%–9.1%) during the study period. Based on these data, we estimated a 9.1-day period (95% CI, 4.4–13.9 days) of RNA detectable with TMA. With 100 475 reported cases of clinical dengue, 1 RNA-positive donation was identified per 800 DENV cases. Conclusions. These parameters allow projections of dengue incidence from donor NAT yield data and vice versa, and suggest that viremic donations will be rare relative to clinical disease cases. PMID:27302934

Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

Is drought helping or killing dengue? Investigation of spatiotemporal relationship between dengue fever and drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2015-04-01

Dengue Fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted between human and mosquitos in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Previous studies have found significant relationship between the epidemic of dengue cases and climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. Besides, the natural phenomena (e.g., drought) are considered that significantly drop the number of dengue cases by killing vector's breeding environment. However, in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, there are evidences that the temporal pattern of dengue is correlated to drought events. Kaohsiung City experienced two main dengue outbreaks in 2002 and 2014 that both years were confirmed with serious drought. Especially in 2014, Kaohsiung City was suffered from extremely dengue outbreak in 2014 that reported the highest number of dengue cases in the history. This study constructs the spatiotemporal model of dengue incidences and index of drought events (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Other meteorological measures are also included in the analysis.

Phylogenetic analysis of dengue virus types 1 and 4 circulating in Puerto Rico and Key West, Florida, during 2010 epidemics.

PubMed

Añez, Germán; Heisey, Daniel A R; Espina, Luz M; Stramer, Susan L; Rios, Maria

2012-09-01

We describe sequences of six strains of dengue virus (DENV): three DENV-1 isolates and two DENV-4 isolates from Puerto Rico, and a DENV-1 strain from Key West, Florida, obtained from blood donors during 2010 epidemics. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the Puerto Rico DENV-1 strains constitute a new lineage within genotype V different from those that circulated in Puerto Rico during the past two decades. The newer Puerto Rico DENV-1 strains associated with strains from the Caribbean and South America. The DENV-1 strain from Key West, Florida clustered with a strain isolated from mosquito pools collected in that area and with a number of strains from Nicaragua and Mexico circulating during 2006-2009. The Puerto Rico DENV-4 isolates of genotype II associated with strains that have circulated on the island throughout the 1980s and 1990s and with strains from the Caribbean region and Central America. Introduction and circulation of novel DENV lineages in dengue-endemic regions have the potential to increase the severity of dengue cases.

Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Gubler, Duane J.

2011-01-01

Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world’s population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future. PMID:22500131

Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21(st) Century.

PubMed

Gubler, Duane J

2011-12-01

Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world's population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

Managing patients with dengue fever during an epidemic: the importance of a hydration tent and of a multidisciplinary approach

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Dengue fever is one of the most common tropical diseases worldwide. Early detection of the disease, followed by intravenous fluid therapy in patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or with warning signs of dengue has a major impact on the prognosis. The purpose of this study is to describe the care provided in a hydration tent, including early detection, treatment, and serial follow-up of patients with dengue fever. Findings The analysis included all patients treated in the hydration tent from April 8 to May 9, 2008. The tent was set up inside the premises of the 2nd Military Firemen Group, located in Meier, a neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The case form data were stored in a computerized database for subsequent assessment. Patients were referred to the tent from primary care units and from secondary city and state hospitals. The routine procedure consisted of an initial screening including vital signs (temperature, blood pressure, heart rate, and respiratory rate), tourniquet test and blood sampling for complete blood count. Over a 31-day period, 3,393 case recordings were seen at the hydration tent. The mean was 109 patients per day. A total of 2,102 initial visits and 1,291 return visits were conducted. Of the patients who returned to the hydration tent for reevaluation, 850 returned once, 230 returned twice, 114 returned three times, and 97 returned four times or more. Overall, 93 (5.3%) patients with DHF seen at the tent were transferred to a tertiary hospital. There were no deaths among these patients. Discussion As the epidemics were already widespread and there were no technical conditions for routine serology, all cases of suspected dengue fever were treated as such. Implementing hydration tents decrease the number of dengue fever hospitalizations. PMID:21902823

A climate-based spatiotemporal prediction for dengue fever epidemics: a case study in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-L.; Yang, S.-J.; Lin, Y.-C.

2012-04-01

Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. DF has been one of the most important epidemics in Taiwan which occur annually especially in southern Taiwan during summer and autumn. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas few studies have investigated the spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects of the DF epidemics. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007, when the highest number of DF cases was recorded in the history of Taiwan epidemics (over 2000). The obtained results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed analysis can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time.

Surveillance of deaths caused by arboviruses in Brazil: from dengue to chikungunya

PubMed Central

Cavalcanti, Luciano Pamplona de Góes; Freitas, André Ricardo Ribas; Brasil, Patrícia; da Cunha, Rivaldo Venâncio

2017-01-01

Did death occur DUE TO dengue, or in a patient WITH dengue virus infection? It seems a matter of semantics, but in fact, it underscores how challenging it is to distinguish whether the disease contributed to death, or was itself the underlying cause of death. Can a death be attributed to chikungunya virus, when some deaths occur after the acute phase? Did the virus decompensate the underlying diseases, leading to death? Did prolonged hospitalisation lead to infection, resulting in the patient’s progression to death? Were there iatrogenic complications during patient care? The dengue question, for which there has not yet been a definitive response, resurfaces prominently under the chikungunya surveillance scenario. We are facing an epidemic of a disease that seems to be more lethal than previously thought. The major challenge ahead is to investigate deaths suspected of occurring due to arbovirus infections and to understand the role of each infection in the unfavourable outcome. PMID:28767985

Incidence and Risk Factors for Developing Dengue-Associated Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis in Puerto Rico, 2008 - 2013.

PubMed

Ellis, Esther M; Sharp, Tyler M; Pérez-Padilla, Janice; González, Liza; Poole-Smith, B Katherine; Lebo, Emmaculate; Baker, Charlotte; Delorey, Mark J; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Ochoa, Eduardo; Rivera-Garcia, Brenda; Díaz-Pinto, Hector; Clavell, Luis; Puig-Ramos, Anabel; Janka, Gritta E; Tomashek, Kay M

2016-08-01

Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare, potentially fatal disorder characterized by fever, pancytopenia, hepatosplenomegaly, and increased serum ferritin. HLH is being increasingly reported as a complication of dengue, a common tropical acute febrile illness. After a cluster of pediatric dengue-associated HLH patients was identified during the 2012-2013 dengue epidemic in Puerto Rico, active surveillance and a case-control investigation was conducted at four referral hospitals to determine the incidence of HLH in children and identify risk factors for HLH following dengue. Patients with dengue-associated HLH (cases) were matched by month of illness onset and admission hospital to dengue patients that did not develop HLH (controls). During 2008-2013, a total of 33 HLH patients were identified, of which 22 (67%) were associated with dengue and 1 died (dengue-associated HLH case-fatality rate: 4.5%). Two patients with dengue-associated HLH had illness onset in 2009, none had illness onset during the 2010 dengue epidemic, and 20 had illness onset during the 2012-2013 epidemic. Frequency of infection with either dengue virus (DENV)-1 or DENV-4 did not differ between cases and controls. Cases were younger than controls (median age: 1 vs. 13 years, p < 0.01), were hospitalized longer (18 vs. 5 days, p < 0.01), and were admitted more frequently to pediatric intensive care units (100% vs. 16%, p < 0.01). Cases had co-infection (18.2% vs. 4.5%, p = 0.04), recent influenza-like illness (54.5% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.01), and longer duration of fever (7 vs. 5 days; p < 0.01). Cases were more likely to have lymphadenopathy, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, anemia, and elevated liver transaminases (p ≤ 0.02). During this cluster of dengue-associated HLH cases that was temporally associated with the 2012-2013 epidemic, most patients with dengue-associated HLH were infants and had higher morbidity than dengue inpatients. Physicians throughout the tropics should be aware of HLH

Role of platelet transfusion in children with bleeding in dengue fever.

PubMed

Pothapregada, Sriram; Kamalakannan, Banupriya; Thulasingam, Mahalakshmy

2015-12-01

The indications for platelet transfusion in dengue fever are clearly defined in World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines (2011) for dengue fever, but physicians face practical difficulty in its implementation in an epidemic setting. On one hand there is an intense social pressure created by the panic-struck parents to transfuse platelets in presence of bleeding and on the other hand there is a need for its judicious use as the requirement is more than its availability. The study was aimed to assess the clinico-hematological parameters, and the requirement and need for platelet transfusion in children with dengue fever. All children (0-12 yr of age) diagnosed and confirmed with dengue fever at a tertiary care hospital in Puducherry between 1 August 2012 and 31 January 2015 were reviewed retrospectively from hospital case records as per the revised WHO guidelines for dengue fever. The diagnosis was confirmed by NS1 antigen- based ELISA test or dengue serology for IgM and IgG antibodies and the data were analyzed using SPSS 16.0 statistical software. Out of 261 cases of dengue fever, hemorrhagic manifestations were observed in 52 children (19.9%), which mainly included petechiae (38.5%), gum bleeding (34.6%) and melena (26.9%). Thrombocytopenia was seen in 211 (80.8%) cases. Bleeding manifestations were present in 20(39.2%), 8(15.7%), 13(25.5%) and 11(21.6%) cases with platelet count <50,000/mm3, 50,000-100,000/mm3, 1-1.50,000/mm3, and >1.50,000/mm3 respectively. Bleeding manifestations did not always correlate with platelet count in non-severe dengue infection in comparison to severe dengue infection. The most common mode of presentation of severe dengue infection was shock with 102(39.1%) cases and among them only 22 children (21.6%) had bleeding. About 17 children (6.5%) with severe dengue infection required platelet transfusion and out of them, 12 children (70.6%) had a platelet count <20,000/ mm3 whereas five children (29.4%) had platelet count in the range of

[Analysis of clinical characteristic of 158 inpatients with dengue fever in Guangzhou area during the 2014 epidemic].

PubMed

Ye, Zi; Huang, Yingxiong; Jiang, Peng; Zheng, Ziyu; Xiong, Yan; Xu, Jia; Xiao, Xiaoyong; Zhan, Hong

2015-04-01

To investigate the clinical characteristics of the inpatients suffering from dengue fever in order to provide references for better diagnosis and treatment. The clinical data of 158 dengue fever patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University from July 23rd to October 31st, 2014 during the 2014 epidemic in Guangzhou area were retrospectively analyzed, including general clinical manifestations, conventional examinations, pathogenesis, and prognosis. The mean age of the 158 patients was ( 56 ± 20 ) years, with half of them over 60 years old (79 cases). Among them, 94 (59.49%) were male. (1) The common manifestations included fever (100%), headache (70.89%), myalgia/bone soreness (62.03%), and skin rash (54.43%). Bleeding and plasma leakage were found in 25.95% and 14.56% of the patients respectively. (2) Laboratory examination: leucopenia (75.32%) and thrombocytopenia (77.85%) were found, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase ( AST ) were elevated in 57.59% and 77.85% of the patients respectively. However, elevation of blood hematocrit was rare (1.27% ). (3) It was found that in the acute phase (0 - 5 days of the onset), serum dengue virus antibody IgM (DF-IgM) was positive in 63.54% of the patients (61/96), and 92.62% (113/122) of patients were dengue virus RNA ( DENA-RNA ) positive. (4) The rate of comorbidity in this study was 55.06% ( 87/158 ), including hypertension (27.22%) and type 2 diabetes (15.82%), which were the two most common co-morbidities. (5) All the patients were given supportive therapy to prevent complications. They were also isolated for more than 5 days after onset, and at least for 24 hours after subsidence of fever in addition. (6) The criteria for the diagnosis of severe dengue were fulfilled in 18 patients (11.39%). One patient died of massive hemorrhage from gastro-intestinal tract, and 1 patient voluntarily left hospital with untreated multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS

Epidemiology of Dengue Virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: Interepidemic and Epidemic Patterns of Transmission

PubMed Central

Morrison, Amy C.; Minnick, Sharon L.; Rocha, Claudio; Forshey, Brett M.; Stoddard, Steven T.; Getis, Arthur; Focks, Dana A.; Russell, Kevin L.; Olson, James G.; Blair, Patrick J.; Watts, Douglas M.; Sihuincha, Moises; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.

2010-01-01

Background Comprehensive, longitudinal field studies that monitor both disease and vector populations for dengue viruses are urgently needed as a pre-requisite for developing locally adaptable prevention programs or to appropriately test and license new vaccines. Methodology and Principal Findings We report the results from such a study spanning 5 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru where DENV infection was monitored serologically among ∼2,400 members of a neighborhood-based cohort and through school-based absenteeism surveillance for active febrile illness among a subset of this cohort. At baseline, 80% of the study population had DENV antibodies, seroprevalence increased with age, and significant geographic variation was observed, with neighborhood-specific age-adjusted rates ranging from 67.1 to 89.9%. During the first 15 months, when DENV-1 and DENV-2 were co-circulating, population-based incidence rates ranged from 2–3 infections/100 person-years (p-years). The introduction of DENV-3 during the last half of 2001 was characterized by 3 distinct periods: amplification over at least 5–6 months, replacement of previously circulating serotypes, and epidemic transmission when incidence peaked at 89 infections/100 p-years. Conclusions/Significance Neighborhood-specific baseline seroprevalence rates were not predictive of geographic incidence patterns prior to the DENV-3 introduction, but were closely mirrored during the invasion of this serotype. Transmission varied geographically, with peak incidence occurring at different times among the 8 geographic zones in ∼16 km2 of the city. The lag from novel serotype introduction to epidemic transmission and knowledge of spatially explicit areas of elevated risk should be considered for more effective application of limited resources for dengue prevention. PMID:20454609

Incidence and Risk Factors for Developing Dengue-Associated Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis in Puerto Rico, 2008 - 2013

PubMed Central

Ellis, Esther M.; Pérez-Padilla, Janice; González, Liza; Poole-Smith, B. Katherine; Lebo, Emmaculate; Baker, Charlotte; Delorey, Mark J.; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Ochoa, Eduardo; Rivera-Garcia, Brenda; Díaz-Pinto, Hector; Clavell, Luis; Puig-Ramos, Anabel; Janka, Gritta E.; Tomashek, Kay M.

2016-01-01

Background Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare, potentially fatal disorder characterized by fever, pancytopenia, hepatosplenomegaly, and increased serum ferritin. HLH is being increasingly reported as a complication of dengue, a common tropical acute febrile illness. Methodology/Principal Findings After a cluster of pediatric dengue-associated HLH patients was identified during the 2012–2013 dengue epidemic in Puerto Rico, active surveillance and a case-control investigation was conducted at four referral hospitals to determine the incidence of HLH in children and identify risk factors for HLH following dengue. Patients with dengue-associated HLH (cases) were matched by month of illness onset and admission hospital to dengue patients that did not develop HLH (controls). During 2008–2013, a total of 33 HLH patients were identified, of which 22 (67%) were associated with dengue and 1 died (dengue-associated HLH case-fatality rate: 4.5%). Two patients with dengue-associated HLH had illness onset in 2009, none had illness onset during the 2010 dengue epidemic, and 20 had illness onset during the 2012–2013 epidemic. Frequency of infection with either dengue virus (DENV)-1 or DENV-4 did not differ between cases and controls. Cases were younger than controls (median age: 1 vs. 13 years, p < 0.01), were hospitalized longer (18 vs. 5 days, p < 0.01), and were admitted more frequently to pediatric intensive care units (100% vs. 16%, p < 0.01). Cases had co-infection (18.2% vs. 4.5%, p = 0.04), recent influenza-like illness (54.5% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.01), and longer duration of fever (7 vs. 5 days; p < 0.01). Cases were more likely to have lymphadenopathy, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, anemia, and elevated liver transaminases (p ≤ 0.02). Conclusions/Significance During this cluster of dengue-associated HLH cases that was temporally associated with the 2012–2013 epidemic, most patients with dengue-associated HLH were infants and had higher morbidity than

Laboratory-Based Surveillance and Molecular Characterization of Dengue Viruses in Taiwan, 2014

PubMed Central

Chang, Shu-Fen; Yang, Cheng-Fen; Hsu, Tung-Chieh; Su, Chien-Ling; Lin, Chien-Chou; Shu, Pei-Yun

2016-01-01

We present the results of a laboratory-based surveillance of dengue in Taiwan in 2014. A total of 240 imported dengue cases were identified. The patients had arrived from 16 countries, and Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China were the most frequent importing countries. Phylogenetic analyses showed that genotype I of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and the cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 were the predominant DENV strains circulating in southeast Asia. The 2014 dengue epidemic was the largest ever to occur in Taiwan since World War II, and there were 15,492 laboratory-confirmed indigenous dengue cases. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the explosive dengue epidemic in southern Taiwan was caused by a DENV-1 strain of genotype I imported from Indonesia. There were several possible causes of this outbreak, including delayed notification of the outbreak, limited staff and resources for control measures, abnormal weather conditions, and a serious gas pipeline explosion in the dengue hot spot areas in Kaohsiung City. However, the results of this surveillance indicated that both active and passive surveillance systems should be strengthened so appropriate public health measures can be taken promptly to prevent large-scale dengue outbreaks. PMID:26880779

Recent Epidemiological Trends of Dengue in the French Territories of the Americas (2000–2012): A Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

L'Azou, Maïna; Taurel, Anne-Frieda; Flamand, Claude; Quénel, Philippe

2014-01-01

Dengue is a public health concern across the globe, and an escalating problem in the Americas. As part of a wider programme (covering Latin America and South East Asia) to characterize the epidemiology of dengue in dengue endemic areas, we undertook a systematic literature review to assess epidemiological trends (incidence, timing and duration of outbreaks/epidemics, age and sex distribution, serotype distribution, seroprevalence and disease severity) for dengue across the French Territories of the Americas (FTA), in French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy between 2000 and 2012 (CRD42012002341: http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42012002341). Of 413 relevant data sources identified, 45 were eligible for inclusion. A large proportion of the available data were from national surveillance reports, and 12 publications were from peer-reviewed journals. During the review period, 3–5 epidemics were identified in each of the island territories and French Guiana, and epidemics were often associated with a shift in the predominant circulating dengue virus serotype. Substantial gaps in epidemiological knowledge were identified. In particular, information regarding dengue virus genotype distribution, seroprevalence and age distribution of dengue were lacking. Additionally, much of the available data were from epidemic years; data from inter-epidemic periods were sparse. Nevertheless, the available epidemiological data showed that dengue is endemic across the FTA and suggest an evolution towards hyperendemicity, highlighting the need to continue the efforts with the existing surveillance programmes to assist in planning an effective vaccination programme once a dengue vaccine is deployed. Protocol registration PROSPERO CRD42012002341 PMID:25375627

DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †

PubMed Central

de Lima, Tiago França Melo; Lana, Raquel Martins; de Senna Carneiro, Tiago Garcia; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Machado, Gabriel Souza; Ferreira, Lucas Saraiva; de Castro Medeiros, Líliam César; Davis Junior, Clodoveu Augusto

2016-01-01

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability. PMID:27649226

Environmentally-driven ensemble forecasts of dengue fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

2017-12-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas where dengue is found, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission remains a significant public health challenge. Recently, we developed a framework for forecasting dengue incidence using an dynamical model of disease transmission coupled with observational data of dengue cases using data-assimilation methods. Here, we investigate the use of environmental data to drive the disease transmission model. We produce retrospective forecasts of the timing and severity of dengue outbreaks, and quantify forecast predictive accuracy.

Estimation of reproduction number and non stationary spectral analysis of dengue epidemic.

PubMed

Enduri, Murali Krishna; Jolad, Shivakumar

2017-06-01

In this work we analyze the post monsoon Dengue outbreaks by analyzing the transient and long term dynamics of Dengue incidences and its environmental correlates in Ahmedabad city in western India from 2005 to 2012. We calculate the reproduction number R p using the growth rate of post monsoon Dengue outbreaks and biological parameters like host and vector incubation periods and vector mortality rate, and its uncertainties are estimated through Monte-Carlo simulations by sampling parameters from their respective probability distributions. Reduction in Female Aedes mosquito density required for an effective prevention of Dengue outbreaks is also calculated. The non stationary pattern of Dengue incidences and its climatic correlates like rainfall temperature is analyzed through Wavelet based methods. We find that the mean time lag between peak of monsoon and Dengue is 9 weeks. Monsoon and Dengue cases are phase locked from 2008 to 2012 in the 16 to maintain consistency make it "16 to 32" 32 weeks band. The duration of post monsoon outbreak has been increasing every year, especially post 2008, even though the intensity and duration of monsoon has been decreasing. Temperature and Dengue incidences show correlations in the same band, but phase lock is not stationary. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

PubMed Central

Honório, Nildimar Alves; Nogueira, Rita Maria Ribeiro; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães, Mônica; de Araújo, Josélio Maria Galvão; de Araújo, Eliane Saraiva Machado; Gomes, Marcelo Quintela; Pinheiro, Luciane Silva; da Silva Pinel, Célio; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo

2009-01-01

Background Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Methodology/Principal Findings Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before–after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue

Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana Using Climate Indicators.

PubMed

Adde, Antoine; Roucou, Pascal; Mangeas, Morgan; Ardillon, Vanessa; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Rousset, Dominique; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien; Quenel, Philippe; Flamand, Claude

2016-04-01

Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991-2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014-2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient.

Early Detection for Dengue Using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) Analysis

PubMed Central

Parra-Amaya, Mayra Elizabeth; Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia; Lizarralde-Bejarano, Diana Paola; Arboleda-Sánchez, Sair

2016-01-01

Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places. PMID:28933396

Early Detection for Dengue Using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) Analysis.

PubMed

Parra-Amaya, Mayra Elizabeth; Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia; Lizarralde-Bejarano, Diana Paola; Arboleda-Sánchez, Sair

2016-03-29

Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes . There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places.

Transfusion-Transmitted Dengue and Associated Clinical Symptoms During the 2012 Epidemic in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sabino, Ester C.; Loureiro, Paula; Lopes, Maria Esther; Capuani, Ligia; McClure, Christopher; Chowdhury, Dhuly; Di-Lorenzo-Oliveira, Claudia; Oliveira, Lea C.; Linnen, Jeffrey M.; Lee, Tzong-Hae; Gonçalez, Thelma; Brambilla, Donald; Kleinman, Steve; Busch, Michael P.; Custer, Brian

2016-01-01

Background. A linked donor-recipient study was conducted during epidemics in 2 cities in Brazil to investigate transfusion-transmitted (TT) dengue virus (DENV) by DENV RNA–positive donations. Methods. During February–June 2012, samples were collected from donors and recipients and retrospectively tested for DENV RNA by transcription-mediated amplification. Recipient chart review, using a case (DENV positive)–control (DENV negative and not known to be exposed) design, was conducted to assess symptoms. Results. Of 39 134 recruited blood donors, DENV-4 viremia was confirmed in 0.51% of donations from subjects in Rio de Janeiro and 0.80% of subjects in Recife. Overall, 42 DENV RNA–positive units were transfused into 35 recipients. Of these, 16 RNA-positive units transfused into 16 susceptible recipients were identified as informative: 5 cases were considered probable TT cases, 1 possible TT case, and 10 nontransmissions. The TT rate was 37.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.2%–64.6%), significantly higher than the viremia rate of 0.93% (95% CI, .11%–3.34%) in nonexposed recipients (P < .0001). Chart review did not find significant differences between cases and controls in symptoms or mortality. Conclusions. During a large epidemic of DENV-4 infection in Brazil, >0.5% of donations were RNA positive, and approximately one third of components resulted in TT. However, no significant clinical differences were evident between RNA-positive and RNA-negative recipients. PMID:26908780

Reemergence of Dengue in Southern Texas, 2013.

PubMed

Thomas, Dana L; Santiago, Gilberto A; Abeyta, Roman; Hinojosa, Steven; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Adam, Jessica K; Evert, Nicole; Caraballo, Elba; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Smith, Brian; Banicki, Alison; Tomashek, Kay M; Gaul, Linda; Sharp, Tyler M

2016-06-01

During a dengue epidemic in northern Mexico, enhanced surveillance identified 53 laboratory-positive cases in southern Texas; 26 (49%) patients acquired the infection locally, and 29 (55%) were hospitalized. Of 83 patient specimens that were initially IgM negative according to ELISA performed at a commercial laboratory, 14 (17%) were dengue virus positive by real-time reverse transcription PCR performed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dengue virus types 1 and 3 were identified, and molecular phylogenetic analysis demonstrated close identity with viruses that had recently circulated in Mexico and Central America. Of 51 household members of 22 dengue case-patients who participated in household investigations, 6 (12%) had been recently infected with a dengue virus and reported no recent travel, suggesting intrahousehold transmission. One household member reported having a recent illness consistent with dengue. This outbreak reinforces emergence of dengue in southern Texas, particularly when incidence is high in northern Mexico.

Reemergence of Dengue in Southern Texas, 2013

PubMed Central

Thomas, Dana L.; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Abeyta, Roman; Hinojosa, Steven; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Adam, Jessica K.; Evert, Nicole; Caraballo, Elba; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Smith, Brian; Banicki, Alison; Tomashek, Kay M.; Gaul, Linda

2016-01-01

During a dengue epidemic in northern Mexico, enhanced surveillance identified 53 laboratory-positive cases in southern Texas; 26 (49%) patients acquired the infection locally, and 29 (55%) were hospitalized. Of 83 patient specimens that were initially IgM negative according to ELISA performed at a commercial laboratory, 14 (17%) were dengue virus positive by real-time reverse transcription PCR performed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dengue virus types 1 and 3 were identified, and molecular phylogenetic analysis demonstrated close identity with viruses that had recently circulated in Mexico and Central America. Of 51 household members of 22 dengue case-patients who participated in household investigations, 6 (12%) had been recently infected with a dengue virus and reported no recent travel, suggesting intrahousehold transmission. One household member reported having a recent illness consistent with dengue. This outbreak reinforces emergence of dengue in southern Texas, particularly when incidence is high in northern Mexico. PMID:27191223

Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

PubMed

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

Laboratory-Based Surveillance and Molecular Characterization of Dengue Viruses in Taiwan, 2014.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Fen; Yang, Cheng-Fen; Hsu, Tung-Chieh; Su, Chien-Ling; Lin, Chien-Chou; Shu, Pei-Yun

2016-04-01

We present the results of a laboratory-based surveillance of dengue in Taiwan in 2014. A total of 240 imported dengue cases were identified. The patients had arrived from 16 countries, and Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China were the most frequent importing countries. Phylogenetic analyses showed that genotype I of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and the cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 were the predominant DENV strains circulating in southeast Asia. The 2014 dengue epidemic was the largest ever to occur in Taiwan since World War II, and there were 15,492 laboratory-confirmed indigenous dengue cases. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the explosive dengue epidemic in southern Taiwan was caused by a DENV-1 strain of genotype I imported from Indonesia. There were several possible causes of this outbreak, including delayed notification of the outbreak, limited staff and resources for control measures, abnormal weather conditions, and a serious gas pipeline explosion in the dengue hot spot areas in Kaohsiung City. However, the results of this surveillance indicated that both active and passive surveillance systems should be strengthened so appropriate public health measures can be taken promptly to prevent large-scale dengue outbreaks. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Huaiyu; Huang, Shanqian

Dengue transmission in urban areas is strongly influenced by a range of biological and environmental factors, yet the key drivers still need further exploration. To better understand mechanisms of environment–mosquito–urban dengue transmission, we propose an empirical model parameterized and cross-validated from a unique dataset including viral gene sequences, vector dynamics and human dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, together with a 36-year urban environmental change maps investigated by spatiotemporal satellite image fusion. The dengue epidemics in Guangzhou are highly episodic and were not associated with annual rainfall over time. Our results indicate that urban environmental changes, especially variations in surface areamore » covered by water in urban areas, can substantially alter the virus population and dengue transmission. The recent severe dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou may be due to the surge in an artificial lake construction, which could increase infection force between vector (mainly Aedes albopictus) and host when urban water area significantly increased. Impacts of urban environmental change on dengue dynamics may not have been thoroughly investigated in the past studies and more work needs to be done to better understand the consequences of urbanization processes in our changing world. - Highlights: • Urban dengue outbreak is associated with water area in Guangzhou, 1978–2014. • Surface water area can alter population size of dengue virus in urban area. • Urban dengue outbreak is not associated with annual rainfall in Guangzhou. • Spatiotemporal satellite image fusion can investigate urban environmental change. • Urban environmental change could induce virus, vector, and dengue epidemic change.« less

Spatial Analysis of Dengue Seroprevalence and Modeling of Transmission Risk Factors in a Dengue Hyperendemic City of Venezuela.

PubMed

Vincenti-Gonzalez, Maria F; Grillet, María-Eugenia; Velasco-Salas, Zoraida I; Lizarazo, Erley F; Amarista, Manuel A; Sierra, Gloria M; Comach, Guillermo; Tami, Adriana

2017-01-01

dengue control measures during epidemic and inter-epidemic periods to disease high risk zones at household and neighborhood-level may significantly reduce virus transmission in comparison to random interventions.

Spatial Analysis of Dengue Seroprevalence and Modeling of Transmission Risk Factors in a Dengue Hyperendemic City of Venezuela

PubMed Central

Vincenti-Gonzalez, Maria F.; Grillet, María-Eugenia; Velasco-Salas, Zoraida I.; Lizarazo, Erley F.; Amarista, Manuel A.; Sierra, Gloria M.; Comach, Guillermo

2017-01-01

in the design of surveillance and control activities. Focalizing dengue control measures during epidemic and inter-epidemic periods to disease high risk zones at household and neighborhood-level may significantly reduce virus transmission in comparison to random interventions. PMID:28114342

Isolation and characterization of dengue virus serotype 2 from the large dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China in 2014.

PubMed

Zhao, Hui; Zhao, LingZhai; Jiang, Tao; Li, XiaoFeng; Fan, Hang; Hong, WenXin; Zhang, Yu; Zhu, Qin; Ye, Qing; Tong, YiGang; Cao, WuChun; Zhang, FuChun; Qin, ChengFeng

2014-12-01

Dengue has been well recognized as a global public health threat, but only sporadic epidemics and imported cases were reported in recent decades in China. Since July 2014, an unexpected large dengue outbreak has occurred in Guangdong province, China, resulting in more than 40000 patients including six deaths. To clarify and characterize the causative agent of this outbreak, the acute phase serum from a patient diagnosed with severe dengue was subjected to virus isolation and high-throughput sequencing (HTS). Traditional real-time RT-PCR and HTS with Ion Torrent PGM detected the presence of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2). A clinical DENV-2 isolate GZ05/2014 was obtained by culturing the patient serum in mosquito C6/36 cells. The complete genome of GZ05/2014 was determined and deposited in GenBank under the access number KP012546. Phylogenetic analysis based on the complete envelope gene showed that the newly DENV-2 isolate belonged to Cosmopolitan genotype and clustered closely with other Guangdong strains isolated in the past decade. No amino acid mutations that are obviously known to increase virulence or replication were identified throughout the genome of GZ05/2014. The high homology of Guangdong DENV-2 strains indicated the possibility of establishment of local DENV-2 circulation in Guangdong, China. These results help clarify the origin of this epidemic and predict the future status of dengue in China.

DengueTools: innovative tools and strategies for the surveillance and control of dengue

PubMed Central

Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Renhorn, Karl-Erik; Tissera, Hasitha; Abu Bakar, Sazaly; Alphey, Luke; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn; Lindsay, Steve; Logan, James; Hatz, Christoph; Reiter, Paul; Rocklöv, Joacim; Byass, Peter; Louis, Valérie R.; Tozan, Yesim; Massad, Eduardo; Tenorio, Antonio; Lagneau, Christophe; L'Ambert, Grégory; Brooks, David; Wegerdt, Johannah; Gubler, Duane

2012-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease estimated to cause about 230 million infections worldwide every year, of which 25,000 are fatal. Global incidence has risen rapidly in recent decades with some 3.6 billion people, over half of the world's population, now at risk, mainly in urban centres of the tropics and subtropics. Demographic and societal changes, in particular urbanization, globalization, and increased international travel, are major contributors to the rise in incidence and geographic expansion of dengue infections. Major research gaps continue to hamper the control of dengue. The European Commission launched a call under the 7th Framework Programme with the title of ‘Comprehensive control of Dengue fever under changing climatic conditions’. Fourteen partners from several countries in Europe, Asia, and South America formed a consortium named ‘DengueTools’ to respond to the call to achieve better diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models and improve our understanding of the spread of dengue to previously uninfected regions (including Europe) in the context of globalization and climate change. The consortium comprises 12 work packages to address a set of research questions in three areas: Research area 1: Develop a comprehensive early warning and surveillance system that has predictive capability for epidemic dengue and benefits from novel tools for laboratory diagnosis and vector monitoring. Research area 2: Develop novel strategies to prevent dengue in children. Research area 3: Understand and predict the risk of global spread of dengue, in particular the risk of introduction and establishment in Europe, within the context of parameters of vectorial capacity, global mobility, and climate change. In this paper, we report on the rationale and specific study objectives of ‘DengueTools’. DengueTools is funded under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community, Grant Agreement Number: 282589

DengueTools: innovative tools and strategies for the surveillance and control of dengue.

PubMed

Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Renhorn, Karl-Erik; Tissera, Hasitha; Abu Bakar, Sazaly; Alphey, Luke; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn; Lindsay, Steve; Logan, James; Hatz, Christoph; Reiter, Paul; Rocklöv, Joacim; Byass, Peter; Louis, Valérie R; Tozan, Yesim; Massad, Eduardo; Tenorio, Antonio; Lagneau, Christophe; L'Ambert, Grégory; Brooks, David; Wegerdt, Johannah; Gubler, Duane

2012-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease estimated to cause about 230 million infections worldwide every year, of which 25,000 are fatal. Global incidence has risen rapidly in recent decades with some 3.6 billion people, over half of the world's population, now at risk, mainly in urban centres of the tropics and subtropics. Demographic and societal changes, in particular urbanization, globalization, and increased international travel, are major contributors to the rise in incidence and geographic expansion of dengue infections. Major research gaps continue to hamper the control of dengue. The European Commission launched a call under the 7th Framework Programme with the title of 'Comprehensive control of Dengue fever under changing climatic conditions'. Fourteen partners from several countries in Europe, Asia, and South America formed a consortium named 'DengueTools' to respond to the call to achieve better diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models and improve our understanding of the spread of dengue to previously uninfected regions (including Europe) in the context of globalization and climate change.The consortium comprises 12 work packages to address a set of research questions in three areas:Research area 1: Develop a comprehensive early warning and surveillance system that has predictive capability for epidemic dengue and benefits from novel tools for laboratory diagnosis and vector monitoring.Research area 2: Develop novel strategies to prevent dengue in children.Research area 3: Understand and predict the risk of global spread of dengue, in particular the risk of introduction and establishment in Europe, within the context of parameters of vectorial capacity, global mobility, and climate change.In this paper, we report on the rationale and specific study objectives of 'DengueTools'. DengueTools is funded under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community, Grant Agreement Number: 282589 Dengue Tools.

Emergence and diversification of dengue 2 cosmopolitan genotype in Pakistan, 2011.

PubMed

Khan, Mohammad A; Ellis, Esther M; Tissera, Hasitha A; Alvi, Mohammad Y; Rahman, Fatima F; Masud, Faisal; Chow, Angelia; Howe, Shiqin; Dhanasekaran, Vijaykrishna; Ellis, Brett R; Gubler, Duane J

2013-01-01

Major dengue epidemics have been observed in the Indian subcontinent since the 1980s and have occurred with increased hospitalizations and mortality. In 2011, the first major epidemic of dengue occurred in Lahore, the second largest city in Pakistan, and resulted in 21,685 confirmed cases and 350 deaths. To investigate the possible viral causes for the increased epidemic activity, we determined the predominant serotype and characterized the viruses genetically. Of 50 patients carefully selected as probable dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever, 34 were positive by virologic testing (i.e. PCR and/or virus isolation). DENV-2 was detected in 32 patients and DENV-1 in two. A total of 24 partial and three full DENV genomes were sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of the capsid (C), pre-membrane (prM), and envelope genes comprising 2500 nucleotides in length indicated that all DENV-2 isolates in Pakistan since 2007 form a monophyletic lineage that is endemic in the country. These viruses were all of the cosmopolitan genotype (IV) and most closely related to viruses isolated in India and Sri Lanka in the past two decades. Phylogenetic analyses of data currently available in GenBank suggest that the Cosmopolitan genotype has diverged into two geographically distinct sub-lineages: sub-lineage IV-a has only been observed in Southeast Asia, China and Oceania, while IV-b is prevalent in the Indian subcontinent. These results highlight the increased diversity of dengue viruses as they spread geographically within the region.

Characteristics and Ophthalmic Manifestations of the Classic Dengue Fever Epidemic in Singapore (2005-2006).

PubMed

Koh, Yan Tong; Sanjay, Srinivasan

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to report the characteristics and ophthalmic manifestations associated with dengue fever (DF) in the 2005-2006 DF epidemic in Singapore. A retrospective case series. Eleven patients (7 males, 4 females) who were 14 to 40 years old (mean age, 27.3 years) with visual complaints occurring 1 to 2 weeks after the onset of DF underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination. The presenting visual acuity (VA) ranged from 6/6 to counting fingers. Five patients had bilateral eye involvement. Ophthalmic findings included retinal hemorrhages (15 eyes), cotton wool spots (15 eyes), retinal pigment epithelium alterations (5 eyes), optic disc swelling (3 eyes), foveolitis (3 eyes), and hyperemia (2 eyes). Impaired color vision was noted in 12 eyes. Visual field defects were noted in 13 eyes; 4 of these eyes were asymptomatic. Fundus fluorescein angiography was done in 9 patients; the findings include choroidal hyperfluorescence (9 eyes), blocked fluorescence (8 eyes), and capillary nonperfusion (1 eye). In 2 eyes, it was normal. Electrophysiology confirmed optic neuropathy in 3 eyes and maculopathy in 1 eye. The follow-up ranged from 12 days to 12 months. The VA at the last follow-up ranged from no light perception to 6/6. Visual field abnormalities were noted in 5 eyes despite a normal VA. Dengue fever is associated with a wide spectrum of ophthalmic manifestations. Rarely, ophthalmic complications in DF can result in permanent visual impairment. Further work can be done to elucidate the relationship between systemic and ocular manifestations of DF.

[Epidemiology of dengue fever in China since 1978].

PubMed

Xiong, Yiquan; Chen, Qing

2014-12-01

Since 1978, dengue fever occurred endemically and epidemically every 4 to 7 years in China, affecting commonly people aged between 20 and 60 years with similar incidences in males and females. Four serotypes of dengue virus have been identified in China, with DENV-1 as the predominant serotype. The incidence of dengue fever became gradually decreased after 1997 but increased significantly in the recent two years, especially in 2014, where, up to November, a total of 44894 cases had been reported in Guangdong Province. In this review, the authors summarize the epidemiology, geographical and population distribution of dengue fever in China since 1978 and analyze the factors contributing to the outbreak in 2014.

AfroColombian ethnicity, a paradoxical protective factor against Dengue

PubMed Central

Alzate, Alberto; Martínez Romero, Héctor Jairo; Concha-Eastman, Alberto Ignacio

2016-01-01

Introduction: Dengue is a priority public health problem. During epidemics in Cuba and Haiti, ethnic African descendant population had lower risk of dengue, and the ethnic factor was proposed as a protective one. Objective: To determine the relation between the Dengue's cumulative incidence and the Afro-Colombian proportion in communities of Cali, during the epidemic of 2013. Methods: This study was conducted in Cali, Colombia. The design was ecological, using information from the National Census 2005 projected to 2013, from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), and the National Epidemiological Surveillance System. It was obtained the Pearson´s correlation coefficient between cumulative incidence and the proportion of Afro-Colombian population by communities. Additionally, the cumulative incidences of dengue were evaluated in two zones with different proportion of Afro-Colombian population. The association was also evaluated for aggregation bias, confounding by social variables, and interaction by area of ​​residence. Results: Dengue´s cumulative incidence was significantly lower for Afro-Colombians regardless of the proportion of Afro-Colombian population in the area of residence. The relative risk of dengue between non-Afro-Colombians and Afro-Colombians was 9.4 (95% CI=8.4-10.6) in zones with high proportion of Afro-Colombian population, while the relative risk of dengue was 4.0 (95% CI :3.6 - 4.4) in the zone with lower proportion of Afro-Colombian population. There was no evidence of aggregation bias or confounding in the association by social variables. Conclusions: The Afro-Colombian population had a significantly lower risk of getting dengue and its complications, compared with the non-Afro-Colombian population. The non-Afro-Colombian populations living in areas with a high proportion of Afro-Colombians increase their risk of dengue more than double, suggesting an asymptomatic viremic environment. PMID:27821892

AfroColombian ethnicity, a paradoxical protective factor against Dengue.

PubMed

Rojas Palacios, Jorge Humberto; Alzate, Alberto; Martínez Romero, Héctor Jairo; Concha-Eastman, Alberto Ignacio

2016-09-30

Dengue is a priority public health problem. During epidemics in Cuba and Haiti, ethnic African descendant population had lower risk of dengue, and the ethnic factor was proposed as a protective one. To determine the relation between the Dengue's cumulative incidence and the Afro-Colombian proportion in communities of Cali, during the epidemic of 2013. This study was conducted in Cali, Colombia. The design was ecological, using information from the National Census 2005 projected to 2013, from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), and the National Epidemiological Surveillance System. It was obtained the Pearson´s correlation coefficient between cumulative incidence and the proportion of Afro-Colombian population by communities. Additionally, the cumulative incidences of dengue were evaluated in two zones with different proportion of Afro-Colombian population. The association was also evaluated for aggregation bias, confounding by social variables, and interaction by area of ​​residence. Dengue´s cumulative incidence was significantly lower for Afro-Colombians regardless of the proportion of Afro-Colombian population in the area of residence. The relative risk of dengue between non-Afro-Colombians and Afro-Colombians was 9.4 (95% CI=8.4-10.6) in zones with high proportion of Afro-Colombian population, while the relative risk of dengue was 4.0 (95% CI :3.6 - 4.4) in the zone with lower proportion of Afro-Colombian population. There was no evidence of aggregation bias or confounding in the association by social variables. The Afro-Colombian population had a significantly lower risk of getting dengue and its complications, compared with the non-Afro-Colombian population. The non-Afro-Colombian populations living in areas with a high proportion of Afro-Colombians increase their risk of dengue more than double, suggesting an asymptomatic viremic environment.

Epidemic cycles driven by host behaviour

PubMed Central

Althouse, Benjamin M.; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent

2014-01-01

Host immunity and demographics (the recruitment of susceptibles via birthrate) have been demonstrated to be a key determinant of the periodicity of measles, pertussis and dengue epidemics. However, not all epidemic cycles are from pathogens inducing sterilizing immunity or are driven by demographics. Many sexually transmitted infections are driven by sexual behaviour. We present a mathematical model of disease transmission where individuals can disconnect and reconnect depending on the infectious status of their contacts. We fit the model to historic syphilis (Treponema pallidum) and gonorrhea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) incidence in the USA and explore potential intervention strategies against syphilis. We find that cycles in syphilis incidence can be driven solely by changing sexual behaviour in structured populations. Our model also explains the lack of similar cycles in gonorrhea incidence even if the two infections share the same propagation pathways. Our model similarly illustrates how sudden epidemic outbreaks can occur on time scales smaller than the characteristic demographic time scale of the population and that weaker infections can lead to more violent outbreaks. Behaviour also appears to be critical for control strategies as we found a bigger sensitivity to behavioural interventions than antibiotic treatment. Thus, behavioural interventions may play a larger role than previously thought, especially in the face of antibiotic resistance and low intervention efficacies. PMID:25100316

A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

Time-Varying, Serotype-Specific Force of Infection of Dengue Virus

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-20

Barraquer I, et al. (2011) From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: The natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5(1):e935. 14...Negl Trop Dis 5(9):e1322. 22. Egger JR, et al. (2008) Reconstructing historical changes in the force of infection of dengue fever in Singapore...documented outbreak of dengue in the Peruvian amazon region . Bull Pan Am Health Organ 26(3):201–207. 26. Watts DM, et al. (1999) Failure of secondary

Climate Change, Population Immunity, and Hyperendemicity in the Transmission Threshold of Dengue

PubMed Central

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

Background It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R0), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist–a state known as hyperendemicity–and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. Methods and Findings We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. Conclusions The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas. PMID:23144746

The Stochastic Multi-strain Dengue Model: Analysis of the Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Stollenwerk, Nico; Kooi, Bob W.

2011-09-01

Dengue dynamics is well known to be particularly complex with large fluctuations of disease incidences. An epidemic multi-strain model motivated by dengue fever epidemiology shows deterministic chaos in wide parameter regions. The addition of seasonal forcing, mimicking the vectorial dynamics, and a low import of infected individuals, which is realistic in the dynamics of infectious diseases epidemics show complex dynamics and qualitatively a good agreement between empirical DHF monitoring data and the obtained model simulation. The addition of noise can explain the fluctuations observed in the empirical data and for large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton.

Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions.

PubMed

Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

2015-01-01

Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients' medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012-2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349-590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904-1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009-2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). The economic burden associated with dengue in Brazil is substantial with

Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

PubMed Central

Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Siqueira, Joao Bosco; Parente, Mirian Perpetua Palha Dias; Zara, Ana Laura de Sene Amancio; Oliveira, Consuelo Silva; Braga, Cynthia; Pimenta, Fabiano Geraldo; Cortes, Fanny; Lopez, Juan Guillermo; Bahia, Luciana Ribeiro; Mendes, Marcia Costa Ooteman; da Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado; de Siqueira Filha, Noemia Teixeira; Constenla, Dagna; de Souza, Wayner Vieira

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. Methods We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients’ medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). Results We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012–2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349–590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904–1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009–2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). Conclusions The economic burden

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

PubMed

Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

2017-07-10

Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

A Comprehensive Entomological, Serological and Molecular Study of 2013 Dengue Outbreak of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

PubMed Central

Khan, Jehangir; Khan, Inamullah; Amin, Ibne

2016-01-01

Background Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus play a fundamental role in transmission of dengue virus to humans. A single infected Aedes mosquito is capable to act as a reservoir/amplifier host for dengue virus and may cause epidemics via horizontal and vertical modes of dengue virus (DENV) transmission. The present and future dengue development can be clarified by understanding the elements which help the dissemination of dengue transmission. The current study deals with molecular surveillance of dengue in addition to ecological and social context of 2013 dengue epidemics in Swat, Pakistan. Methods Herein, we reported dengue vectors surveillance in domestic and peridomistic containers in public and private places in 7 dengue epidemic-prone sites in District Swat, Pakistan from July to November 2013. Using the Flaviviruses genus-specific reverse transcriptase (RT) semi nested-PCR assay, we screened blood samples (N = 500) of dengue positive patients, 150 adult mosquito pools and 25 larval pools. Results The 34 adult and 7 larval mosquito pools were found positive. The adult positive pools comprised 30 pools of Ae. aegypti and 4 pools of Ae. albopictus, while among the 7 larval pools, 5 pools of Ae. aegypti and 2 pools of Ae. albopictus were positive. The detected putative genomes of dengue virus were of DENV-2 (35% in 14 mosquito pools & 39% in serum) and DENV-3 (65% in 27 mosquito pools & 61% in serum). The higher vector density and dengue transmission rate was recorded in July and August (due to favorable conditions for vector growth). About 37% of Ae. aegpti and 34% Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were collected from stagnant water in drums, followed by drinking water tanks (23% & 26%), tires (20% & 18%) and discarded containers (10% & 6%). Among the surveyed areas, Saidu was heavily affected (26%) by dengue followed by Kanju (20% and Landikas (12%). The maximum infection was observed in the age group of <15 (40%) followed by 15–45 (35%) and >45 (25%) years and was

Laboratory and Molecular Characterization of Dengue Viruses in a 2014 Outbreak in Guangfo Region, Southern China.

PubMed

Luo, Zhao-Fan; Hu, Bo; Zhang, Feng-Yi; Lin, Xiang-Hua; Xie, Xiao-Ying; Pan, Kun-Yi; Li, Hong-Yu; Ren, Rui-Wen; Zhao, Wen-Zhong

2017-09-25

Non-specific symptoms and low viremia levels make early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection challenging. This study aimed to i) identify laboratory markers that can be used to predict a DENV-positive diagnosis and ii) perform a molecular characterization of DENVs from the 2014 Guangdong epidemic. This retrospective study analyzed 1,044 patients from the Guangdong epidemic who were clinically suspected cases of dengue. Viral RNA was detected by real-time RT-PCR, and viral-specific NS1 antigen was detected using enzyme-linked immuno sorbent assay. A molecular phylogenetic analysis was performed for the with the DENV C-prM gene junction. Patients with dengue infection had leukopenia (2.8 × 10 9 /L), thrombocytopenia (109.0 × 10 9 /L), elevated aspartate aminotransferase (56.0 IU/L) and alanine aminotransferase (43.5 IU/L), and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT, 33.5 s) (all P ＜ 0.001) compared to patients without dengue. The positive predictive value of leukopenia and thrombocytopenia for DENV infection were 96.9% and 93.0%, respectively. Leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, elevated aminotransferases, and prolonged APTT were useful predictive markers for an early diagnosis of DENV infection. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the DENVs from the 2014 epidemic were closely related to a 2010 New Delhi strain and a 2013 Guangzhou strain. The 2014 epidemic consisted of co-circulating DENV-1 genotypes I and V from multiple origins. Efficient dengue surveillance can facilitate rapid response to future outbreaks.

ENSO-driven climate variability promotes periodic major outbreaks of dengue in Venezuela.

PubMed

Vincenti-Gonzalez, M F; Tami, A; Lizarazo, E F; Grillet, M E

2018-04-10

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease of global impact. In Venezuela, dengue has emerged as one of the most important public health problems of urban areas with frequent epidemics since 2001. The long-term pattern of this disease has involved not only a general upward trend in cases but also a dramatic increase in the size and frequency of epidemic outbreaks. By assuming that climate variability has a relevant influence on these changes in time, we quantified the periodicity of dengue incidence in time-series of data from two northern regions of Venezuela. Disease cycles of 1 and 3-4 years (p < 0.05) were detected. We determined that dengue cycles corresponded with local climate and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation at both seasonal and inter-annual scales (every 2-3 years). Dengue incidence peaks were more prevalent during the warmer and dryer years of El Niño confirming that ENSO is a regional climatic driver of such long-term periodicity through local changes in temperature and rainfall. Our findings support the evidence of the effect of climate on dengue dynamics and advocate the incorporation of climate information in the surveillance and prediction of this arboviral disease in Venezuela.

Developing a Time Series Predictive Model for Dengue in Zhongshan, China Based on Weather and Guangzhou Dengue Surveillance Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingtao; Wang, Tao; Liu, Kangkang; Xia, Yao; Lu, Yi; Jing, Qinlong; Yang, Zhicong; Hu, Wenbiao; Lu, Jiahai

2016-02-01

Dengue is a re-emerging infectious disease of humans, rapidly growing from endemic areas to dengue-free regions due to favorable conditions. In recent decades, Guangzhou has again suffered from several big outbreaks of dengue; as have its neighboring cities. This study aims to examine the impact of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou, China, and to develop a predictive model for Zhongshan based on local weather conditions and Guangzhou dengue surveillance information. We obtained weekly dengue case data from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014 for Guangzhou and Zhongshan city from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Meteorological data was collected from the Zhongshan Weather Bureau and demographic data was collected from the Zhongshan Statistical Bureau. A negative binomial regression model with a log link function was used to analyze the relationship between weekly dengue cases in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, controlling for meteorological factors. Cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on weekly dengue cases. Models were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and k-fold cross-validation. Our results showed that weekly dengue cases in Zhongshan were significantly associated with dengue cases in Guangzhou after the treatment of a 5 weeks prior moving average (Relative Risk (RR) = 2.016, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.845-2.203), controlling for weather factors including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. ROC curve analysis indicated our forecasting model performed well at different prediction thresholds, with 0.969 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for a threshold of 3 cases per week, 0.957 AUC for a threshold of 2 cases per week, and 0.938 AUC for a threshold of 1 case per week. Models established during k-fold cross-validation also had considerable AUC (average 0.938-0.967). The sensitivity and specificity

Factors Associated with the Time of Admission among Notified Dengue Fever Cases in Region VIII Philippines from 2008 to 2014

PubMed Central

Gil Cuesta, Julita; Cerro, Boyd Roderick; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

In cases of Dengue fever, late hospital admission can lead to treatment delay and even death. In order to improve early disease notification and management, it is essential to investigate the factors affecting the time of admission of Dengue cases. This study determined the factors associated with the time of admission among notified Dengue cases. The study covered the period between 2008 and 2014 in Region VIII, Philippines. The factors assessed were age, sex, hospital sector, hospital level, disease severity based on the 1997 WHO Dengue classification, and period of admission (distinguishing between the 2010 Dengue epidemic and non-epidemic time). We analysed secondary data from the surveillance of notified Dengue cases. We calculated the association through chi-square test, ordinal logistic regression and linear regression at p value < 0.05. The study included 16,357 admitted Dengue cases. The reported cases included a majority of children (70.09%), mild cases of the disease (64.00%), patients from the public sector (69.82%), and non-tertiary hospitals (62.76%). Only 1.40% of cases had a laboratory confirmation. The epidemic period in 2010 comprised 48.68% of all the admitted cases during this period. Late admission was more likely among adults than children (p<0.05). The severe type of the disease was more likely to be admitted late than the mild type (p<0.05). Late admission was also more likely in public hospitals than in private hospitals (p<0.05); and within tertiary level hospitals than non-tertiary hospitals (p<0.05). Late admission was more likely during the non-epidemic period than the 2010 epidemic period (p<0.05). A case fatality rate of 1 or greater was significantly associated with children, severe diseases, tertiary hospitals and public hospitals when admitted late (p<0.05). Data suggests that early admission among child cases was common in Region VIII. This behavior is encouraging, and should be continued. However, further study is needed on the

Investigation of spatiotemporal relationship between dengue fever and drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2016-04-01

Dengue Fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted between human and mosquitos in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Previous studies have found significant relationship between the epidemic of dengue cases and climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. Besides, the natural phenomena (e.g., drought) are considered that significantly drop the number of dengue cases by killing vector's breeding environment. However, in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, there are evidences that the temporal pattern of dengue is correlated to drought events. Kaohsiung City experienced two main dengue outbreaks in 2002 and 2014 that both years were confirmed with serious drought. Especially in 2014, Kaohsiung City was suffered from extremely dengue outbreak in 2014 that reported the highest number of dengue cases in the history. Otherwise, another nearby city, Tainan City, had reported the biggest outbreak in 2015. This study constructs the spatiotemporal model of dengue incidences and index of drought events (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Other meteorological measures are also included in the analysis.

Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.

PubMed

Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

2015-12-01

Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial

Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia

PubMed Central

Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. Methods We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. Results The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. Conclusion In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a

Temporal distribution of dengue virus serotypes in Colombian endemic area and dengue incidence. Re-introduction of dengue-3 associated to mild febrile illness and primary infection.

PubMed

Ocazionez, Raquel Elvira; Cortés, Fabián Mauricio; Villar, Luis Angel; Gómez, Sergio Yebrail

2006-11-01

We have investigated the temporal distribution of dengue (DEN) virus serotypes in the department (state) of Santander, Colombia, in relation to dengue incidence, infection pattern, and severity of disease. Viral isolation was attended on a total of 1452 acute serum samples collected each week from 1998 to 2004. The infection pattern was evaluated in 596 laboratory-positive dengue cases using an IgG ELISA, and PRNT test. The dengue incidence was documented by the local health authority. Predominance of DEN-1 in 1998 and DEN-3 re-introduction and predominance in 2001-2003 coincided with outbreaks. Predominance of DEN-2 in 2000-2001 coincided with more dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DEN-4 was isolated in 2000-2001 and 2004 but was not predominant. There was an annual increase of primary dengue infections (from 13.7 to 81.4%) that correlated with frequency of DEN-3 (r = 0.83; P = 0.038). From the total number of primary dengue infections DEN-3 (81.3%) was the most frequent serotype. DHF was more frequent in DEN-2 infected patients than in DEN-3 infected patients: 27.5 vs 10.9% (P < 0.05). DEN-3 viruses belonged to subtype C (restriction site-specific-polymerase chain reaction) like viruses isolated in Sri-Lanka and other countries in the Americas. Our findings show the importance of continuous virological surveillance to identify the risk factors of dengue epidemics and severity.

A local outbreak of dengue caused by an imported case in Dongguan China

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dengue, a mosquito-borne febrile viral disease, is found in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Since the first occurrence of dengue was confirmed in Guangdong, China in 1978, dengue outbreaks have been reported sequentially in different provinces in South China transmitted by.peridomestic Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, diplaying Ae. aegypti, a fully domestic vector that transmits dengue worldwide. Rapid and uncontrolled urbanization is a characteristic change in developing countries, which impacts greatly on vector habitat, human lifestyle and transmission dynamics on dengue epidemics. In September 2010, an outbreak of dengue was detected in Dongguan, a city in Guangdong province characterized by its fast urbanization. An investigation was initiated to identify the cause, to describe the epidemical characteristics of the outbreak, and to implement control measures to stop the outbreak. This is the first report of dengue outbreak in Dongguan, even though dengue cases were documented before in this city. Methods Epidemiological data were obtained from local Center of Disease Control and prevention (CDC). Laboratory tests such as real-time Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR), the virus cDNA sequencing, and Enzyme-Linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were employed to identify the virus infection and molecular phylogenetic analysis was performed with MEGA5. The febrile cases were reported every day by the fever surveillance system. Vector control measures including insecticidal fogging and elimination of habitats of Ae. albopictus were used to control the dengue outbreak. Results The epidemiological studies results showed that this dengue outbreak was initiated by an imported case from Southeast Asia. The outbreak was characterized by 31 cases reported with an attack rate of 50.63 out of a population of 100,000. Ae. albopictus was the only vector species responsible for the outbreak. The virus cDNA sequencing analysis showed

Dengue, related to rubble and building construction in Brazil.

PubMed

Sampaio, Angela Maria Marques; Kligerman, Débora Cynamon; Júnior, Sílvio Ferreira

2009-11-01

The fast-growing formation of solid waste, resulting from demographic density, presents itself as one of the most pressing problems to be addressed by governments of large cities all over the world. In Rio de Janeiro, 60% of solid waste stems from the construction industry. Although envisaged by under current municipal legislation, no application of policy regarding systematic recycling of this kind of waste exists in fact. Both sanitation experts and epidemiologists highlight that the deficient sanitary system contributes to the growth of endemic breeding sites, which may reach epidemic proportions. In Brazil, over the recent years, there has been an increase of Dengue Fever cases followed by deaths. In the first half of 2008, the State of Rio de Janeiro was plagued by an intense Dengue epidemic. The city of Rio de Janeiro alone accounted for 48.7% of the cases, in absolute values. By drawing upon an analytical method based on the interrelation between health and sanitation, the outcomes herein indicate that the city of Rio de Janeiro bears a direct relation between Dengue incidence rates and rubble formation from construction - measured by the total area built. Thus, there is a strong urge to implement recycling systems out of construction rubble as a sanitation measure in order to promote Dengue incidence reduction.

Temporal patterns and forecast of dengue infection in Northeastern Thailand.

PubMed

Silawan, Tassanee; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Nimmanitya, Suchitra; Suwonkerd, Wanapa

2008-01-01

This study aimed to determine temporal patterns and develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in northeastern Thailand. Reported cases were obtained from the Thailand national surveillance system. The temporal patterns were displayed by plotting monthly rates, the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) was performed using R 2.2.1 software, and the trend was assessed using Poisson regression. The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed in R 2.2.1 and Intercooled Stata 9.2 using the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The model was evaluated by comparing predicted versus actual rates of dengue for 1996 to 2005 and used to forecast monthly rates during January to December 2006. The results reveal that epidemics occurred every two years, with approximately three years per epidemic, and that the next epidemic will take place in 2006 to 2008. It was found that if a month increased, the rate ratio for dengue infection decreased by a factor 0.9919 for overall region and 0.9776 to 0.9984 for individual provinces. The amplitude of the peak, which was evident in June or July, was 11.32 to 88.08 times greater than the rest of the year. The seasonal ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model was model with the best fit for regionwide data of total dengue incidence whereas the models with the best fit varied by province. The forecasted regional monthly rates during January to December 2006 should range from 0.27 to 17.89 per 100,000 population. The peak for 2006 should be much higher than the peak for 2005. The highest peaks in 2006 should be in Loei, Buri Ram, Surin, Nakhon Phanom, and Ubon Ratchathani Provinces.

Environmental and socio-economic change in Thailand: quantifying spatio-temporal risk factors of dengue to inform decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodo, X.; Lowe, R.; Karczewska-Gibert, A.; Cazelles, B.

2013-12-01

Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to make spatio

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Reviewing Dengue: Still a Neglected Tropical Disease?

PubMed Central

Horstick, Olaf; Tozan, Yesim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2015-01-01

Dengue is currently listed as a “neglected tropical disease” (NTD). But is dengue still an NTD or not? Classifying dengue as an NTD may carry advantages, but is it justified? This review considers the criteria for the definition of an NTD, the current diverse lists of NTDs by different stakeholders, and the commonalities and differences of dengue with other NTDs. We also review the current research gaps and research activities and the adequacy of funding for dengue research and development (R&D) (2003–2013). NTD definitions have been developed to a higher precision since the early 2000s, with the following main features: NTDs are characterised as a) poverty related, b) endemic to the tropics and subtropics, c) lacking public health attention, d) having poor research funding and shortcomings in R&D, e) usually associated with high morbidity but low mortality, and f) often having no specific treatment available. Dengue meets most of these criteria, but not all. Although dengue predominantly affects resource-limited countries, it does not necessarily only target the poor and marginalised in those countries. Dengue increasingly attracts public health attention, and in some affected countries it is now a high profile disease. Research funding for dengue has increased exponentially in the past two decades, in particular in the area of dengue vaccine development. However, despite advances in dengue research, dengue epidemics are increasing in frequency and magnitude, and dengue is expanding to new areas. Specific treatment and a highly effective vaccine remain elusive. Major research gaps exist in the area of integrated surveillance and vector control. Hence, although dengue differs from many of the NTDs, it still meets important criteria commonly used for NTDs. The current need for increased R&D spending, shared by dengue and other NTDs, is perhaps the key reason why dengue should continue to be considered an NTD. PMID:25928673

Autoimmune features caused by dengue fever: a case report.

PubMed

Jardim, Denis Leonardo Fontes; Tsukumo, Daniela Miti Lemos; Angerami, Rodrigo N; Carvalho Filho, Marco Antonio de; Saad, Mário José Abdalla

2012-01-01

Dengue virus is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. Co-circulation of the four types of dengue viruses and expansion of dengue epidemic gave rise to infection enhancement and a big expansion of clinical aspects of the disease. Herein we report a case of a 25-year-old white woman with dengue fever and numerous associated autoimmune features. Our patient had proteinuria, an extensive right pleural effusion, a thin pericardial effusion and ascites. She had a low C3 level and positive antinuclear antibody; cryoglobulins were also positive. The numerous autoimmune features of this patient were a diagnostic challenge, since she was a young woman and could be easily mistaken for a rheumatologic patient in a newly open disease. Dengue infection probably was a triggering event causing an abnormal immune response. Therefore, dengue should be suspected in patients with hematological disorders and autoimmune features in endemic regions or those who have travelled to those regions.

Estimates of Dengue Force of Infection in Children in Colombo, Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Tam, Clarence C.; Tissera, Hasitha; de Silva, Aravinda M.; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan; Margolis, Harold S.; Amarasinge, Ananda

2013-01-01

Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease worldwide and a major cause of childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka, which has experienced a number of large epidemics in the past decade. Despite this, data on the burden and transmission of dengue virus in the Indian Subcontinent are lacking. As part of a longitudinal fever surveillance study, we conducted a dengue seroprevalence survey among children aged <12 years in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We used a catalytic model to estimate the risk of primary infection among seronegative children. Over 50% of children had IgG antibodies to dengue virus and seroprevalence increased with age. The risk of primary infection was 14.1% per year (95% CI: 12.7%–15.6%), indicating that among initially seronegative children, approximately 1 in 7 experience their first infection within 12 months. There was weak evidence to suggest that the force of primary infection could be lower for children aged 6 years and above. We estimate that there are approximately 30 primary dengue infections among children <12 years in the community for every case notified to national surveillance, although this ratio is closer to 100∶1 among infants. Dengue represents a considerable infection burden among children in urban Sri Lanka, with levels of transmission comparable to those in the more established epidemics of Southeast Asia. PMID:23755315

Evaluation of laboratory tests for dengue diagnosis in clinical specimens from consecutive patients with suspected dengue in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

PubMed

Ferraz, Fernanda Oliveira; Bomfim, Maria Rosa Quaresma; Totola, Antônio Helvécio; Ávila, Thiago Vinícius; Cisalpino, Daniel; Pessanha, José Eduardo Marques; da Glória de Souza, Danielle; Teixeira Júnior, Antônio Lúcio; Nogueira, Maurício Lacerda; Bruna-Romero, Oscar; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2013-09-01

Dengue is a widely spread arboviral disease in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Dengue fever presents clinical characteristics similar to other febrile illness. Thus laboratory diagnosis is important for adequate management of the disease. The present study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of real-time PCR and serological methods for dengue in a real epidemic context. Clinical data and blood samples were collected from consecutive patients with suspected dengue who attended a primary health care unit in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Serologic methods and real-time PCR were performed in serum samples to confirm dengue diagnosis. Among the 181 consecutive patients enrolled in this study with suspected dengue, 146 were considered positive by serological criteria (positive NS1 ELISA and/or anti-dengue IgM ELISA) and 138 were positive by real-time PCR. Clinical criteria were not sufficient for distinguishing between dengue and non-dengue febrile illness. The PCR reaction was pre-optimized using samples from patients with known viral infection. It had similar sensitivity compared to NS1 ELISA (88% and 89%, respectively). We also evaluated three commercial lateral flow immunochromatographic tests for NS1 detection (BIOEASY, BIORAD and PANBIO). All three tests showed high sensitivity (94%, 91% and 81%, respectively) for dengue diagnosis. According to our results it can be suggested that lateral flow tests for NS1 detection are the most feasible methods for early diagnosis of dengue. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Return of epidemic dengue in the United States: implications for the public health practitioner.

PubMed

Bouri, Nidhi; Sell, Tara Kirk; Franco, Crystal; Adalja, Amesh A; Henderson, D A; Hynes, Noreen A

2012-01-01

Conditions that facilitate sustained dengue transmission exist in the United States, and outbreaks have occurred during the past decade in Texas, Hawaii, and Florida. More outbreaks can also be expected in years to come. To combat dengue, medical and public health practitioners in areas with mosquito vectors that are competent to transmit the virus must be aware of the threat of reemergent dengue, and the need for early reporting and control to reduce the impact of dengue outbreaks. Comprehensive dengue control includes human and vector surveillance, vector management programs, and community engagement efforts. Public health, medical, and vector-control communities must collaborate to prevent and control disease spread. Policy makers should understand the role of mosquito abatement and community engagement in the prevention and control of the disease.

Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.; Magadia, Joselito C.

2016-10-01

Accurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. The method is applied to the monthly reported dengue cases in Baguio City, Philippines.

Ecology and control of dengue vector mosquitoes in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Y R; Hwang, J S; Guo, Y J

1994-12-01

Due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and social changes in recent years, the use of packing materials and tires has dramatically increased in the Taiwan area. What is more is that some parts of southern Taiwan are short of water resources and water preservation with huge containers becomes part of custom in those areas. Storage water containers, waste vessels and tires are good habitats for Aedes. Meanwhile, some persons traveling to dengue endemic countries bring the dengue disease back to Taiwan. Surveys taken since 1988 show that dengue occurs mainly in the urban and coastal areas where Aedes aegypti is prevalent. This species is the most important, if not the only, vector of dengue in Taiwan. It appears that the types of Aedes breeding have changed quickly. In dengue fever epidemic areas, the most popular breeding sites are ornamental containers (38.8%), storage water containers (30.1%), discarded containers (25.4%), receptacles (3.3%) and water collection in the basement (2.2%). In dengue fever epidemic areas, those building basements, huge water containers, waste vessels and waste tires in open fields are most difficult to clean up and manage and become the most popular Aedes habitats. We established a waste recycling system and promoted a breeding site reduction campaign for waste management, including the application of Temephos in containers to kill larvae. For the drinking water management, fish were released in water containers to prevent larval breeding. It should be mentioned that with the integrated pest control and regular inspections of Aedes larvae in Taiwan the density figures 1, 2-5, and 6 or above for Aedes aegypti were 38.7%, 42.9%, and 18.4%, respectively, in 1988, and in 1993 were 90.8%, 9.2% and 0%. The incidence of dengue fever cases has 98% decreased since 1988. In 1990 and 1993, there was no indigenous cases. We have concluded that integrated pest control is the best and most effective method for dengue fever control, including

Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand

PubMed Central

Lauer, Stephen A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Hinjoy, Soawapak; Suangtho, Paphanij; Suthachana, Suthanun; Clapham, Hannah E.; Salje, Henrik; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Lessler, Justin

2016-01-01

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making. PMID:27304062

Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.

PubMed

Reich, Nicholas G; Lauer, Stephen A; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Hinjoy, Soawapak; Suangtho, Paphanij; Suthachana, Suthanun; Clapham, Hannah E; Salje, Henrik; Cummings, Derek A T; Lessler, Justin

2016-06-01

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making.

Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana

PubMed Central

Flamand, Claude; Fabregue, Mickael; Bringay, Sandra; Ardillon, Vanessa; Quénel, Philippe; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Teisseire, Maguelonne

2014-01-01

Objective To identify local meteorological drivers of dengue fever in French Guiana, we applied an original data mining method to the available epidemiological and climatic data. Through this work, we also assessed the contribution of the data mining method to the understanding of factors associated with the dissemination of infectious diseases and their spatiotemporal spread. Methods We applied contextual sequential pattern extraction techniques to epidemiological and meteorological data to identify the most significant climatic factors for dengue fever, and we investigated the relevance of the extracted patterns for the early warning of dengue outbreaks in French Guiana. Results The maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, global brilliance, and cumulative rainfall were identified as determinants of dengue outbreaks, and the precise intervals of their values and variations were quantified according to the epidemiologic context. The strongest significant correlations were observed between dengue incidence and meteorological drivers after a 4–6-week lag. Discussion We demonstrated the use of contextual sequential patterns to better understand the determinants of the spatiotemporal spread of dengue fever in French Guiana. Future work should integrate additional variables and explore the notion of neighborhood for extracting sequential patterns. Conclusions Dengue fever remains a major public health issue in French Guiana. The development of new methods to identify such specific characteristics becomes crucial in order to better understand and control spatiotemporal transmission. PMID:24549761

Meningitis Associated with Simultaneous Infection by Multiple Dengue Virus Serotypes in Children, Brazil.

PubMed

Marinho, Paula Eillanny Silva; Bretas de Oliveira, Danilo; Candiani, Talitah Michel Sanchez; Crispim, Ana Paula Correia; Alvarenga, Pedro Paulo Martins; Castro, Fabrizia Cristina Dos Santos; Abrahão, Jonatas Santos; Rios, Maria; Coimbra, Roney Santos; Kroon, Erna Geessien

2017-01-01

To determine the causes of viral meningitis, we analyzed 22 cerebrospinal fluid samples collected during the 2014-2015 dengue epidemics in Brazil. We identified 3 serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1, -2, and -3), as well as co-infection with 2 or 3 serotypes. We also detected the Asian II genotype of DENV-2.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia.

PubMed

Zellweger, Raphaël M; Cano, Jorge; Mangeas, Morgan; Taglioni, François; Mercier, Alizé; Despinoy, Marc; Menkès, Christophe E; Dupont-Rouzeyrol, Myrielle; Nikolay, Birgit; Teurlai, Magali

2017-04-01

Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific. An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008-2009 and 2012-2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran's I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city. The 2008-2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012-2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used. This study demonstrates a robust spatial association between dengue incidence rates and

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia

PubMed Central

Zellweger, Raphaël M.; Cano, Jorge; Mangeas, Morgan; Taglioni, François; Mercier, Alizé; Despinoy, Marc; Menkès, Christophe E.; Dupont-Rouzeyrol, Myrielle

2017-01-01

Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific. Methodology An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008–2009 and 2012–2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran’s I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city. Principal findings The 2008–2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012–2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used. Conclusions This study demonstrates

Spatio-temporal diffusion pattern and hotspot detection of dengue in Chachoengsao province, Thailand.

PubMed

Jeefoo, Phaisarn; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Souris, Marc

2011-01-01

In recent years, dengue has become a major international public health concern. In Thailand it is also an important concern as several dengue outbreaks were reported in last decade. This paper presents a GIS approach to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics. The major objective of this study was to examine spatial diffusion patterns and hotspot identification for reported dengue cases. Geospatial diffusion pattern of the 2007 dengue outbreak was investigated. Map of daily cases was generated for the 153 days of the outbreak. Epidemiological data from Chachoengsao province, Thailand (reported dengue cases for the years 1999-2007) was used for this study. To analyze the dynamic space-time pattern of dengue outbreaks, all cases were positioned in space at a village level. After a general statistical analysis (by gender and age group), data was subsequently analyzed for temporal patterns and correlation with climatic data (especially rainfall), spatial patterns and cluster analysis, and spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots during epidemics. The results revealed spatial diffusion patterns during the years 1999-2007 representing spatially clustered patterns with significant differences by village. Villages on the urban fringe reported higher incidences. The space and time of the cases showed outbreak movement and spread patterns that could be related to entomologic and epidemiologic factors. The hotspots showed the spatial trend of dengue diffusion. This study presents useful information related to the dengue outbreak patterns in space and time and may help public health departments to plan strategies to control the spread of disease. The methodology is general for space-time analysis and can be applied for other infectious diseases as well.

National dengue surveillance in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2006–2012: epidemiological and laboratory findings

PubMed Central

Khampapongpane, Bouaphanh; Ketmayoon, Pakapak; Phonekeo, Darouny; Somoulay, Virasack; Khamsing, Amphai; Phengxay, Manilay; Sisouk, Thongchanh; Vongphrachanh, Phengta; Bryant, Juliet E

2014-01-01

Although dengue has been a public health problem for several decades in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the magnitude of the disease burden and epidemiological trends remain poorly understood. We analysed national dengue surveillance and laboratory data from 2006 to 2012 by person, place and time. Between 2006 and 2012, the annual dengue notification rate ranged between 62 and 367 cases per 100 000 population with an apparent geographical expansion of transmission throughout the country in recent years and concurrent co-circulation of all four dengue virus subtypes. An electronic database, called Lao People's Democratic Republic Early Warning Alert and Response Network, was introduced in 2008 to provide automated early warning for outbreaks and epidemics. Village outbreaks continue to be notified primarily through event-based surveillance, whereas the weekly indicator-based system provides systematic assessment of annual epidemic cycles. The dengue case data indicate a high and increasing burden of disease. Efforts now need to focus on using available data to prompt more effective outbreak response and to guide the design and implementation of intervention strategies. PMID:24734212

Can internet search queries be used for dengue fever surveillance in China?

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Zhang, Yanhong; Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Deng, Changyu; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Qingying

2017-10-01

China experienced an unprecedented outbreak of dengue fever in 2014, and the number of cases reached the highest level over the past 25 years. Traditional sentinel surveillance systems of dengue fever in China have an obvious drawback that the average delay from receipt to dissemination of dengue case data is roughly 1-2 weeks. In order to exploit internet search queries to timely monitor dengue fever, we analyzed data of dengue incidence and Baidu search query from 31 provinces in mainland China during the period of January 2011 to December 2014. We found that there was a strong correlation between changes in people's online health-seeking behavior and dengue fever incidence. Our study represents the first attempt demonstrating a strong temporal and spatial correlation between internet search trends and dengue epidemics nationwide in China. The findings will help the government to strengthen the capacity of traditional surveillance systems for dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Critical Role of Early Dengue Surveillance and Limitations of Clinical Reporting – Implications for Non-Endemic Countries

PubMed Central

Kao, Jui-Hung; Chen, Chaur-Dong; Chu, Yin-Hsia; Cheng, Hau-Yuan; Liu, Jien-Wei; Shih, Fuh-Yuan; Shu, Pei-Yun; Lin, Chien-Chou; Tsai, Wu-Hsiung; Ku, Chia-Chi; Ho, Chi-Kung; King, Chwan-Chuen

2016-01-01

The increasing dengue burden and epidemic severity worldwide have highlighted the need to improve surveillance. In non-endemic areas such as Taiwan, where outbreaks start mostly with imported cases from Southeast Asia, a closer examination of surveillance dynamics to detect cases early is necessary. To evaluate problems with dengue surveillance and investigate the involvement of different factors at various epidemic stages, we investigated 632 laboratory-confirmed indigenous dengue cases in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan during 2009–2010. The estimated sensitivity of clinical surveillance was 82.4% (521/632). Initially, the modified serological surveillance (targeting only the contacts of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases) identified clinically unrecognized afebrile cases in younger patients who visited private clinics and accounted for 30.4% (35/115) of the early-stage cases. Multivariate regression indicated that hospital/medical center visits [Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 11.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.3–21.4], middle epidemic stage [aOR: 2.4 (1.2–4.7)], fever [aOR: 2.3 (2.3–12.9)], and musculo-articular pain [aOR: 1.9 (1.05–3.3)] were significantly associated with clinical reporting. However, cases with pruritus/rash [aOR: 0.47 (0.26–0.83)] and diarrhea [aOR: 0.47 (0.26–0.85)] were underreported. In conclusion, multiple factors contributed to dengue surveillance problems. To prevent a large-scale epidemic and minimize severe dengue cases, there is a need for integrated surveillance incorporating entomological, clinical, serological, and virological surveillance systems to detect early cases, followed by immediate prevention and control measures and continuous evaluation to ensure effectiveness. This effort will be particularly important for an arbovirus, such as Zika virus, with a high asymptomatic infection ratio. For dengue- non-endemic countries, we recommend serological surveillance be implemented in areas with high Aedes mosquito indices or many

Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana.

PubMed

Flamand, Claude; Fabregue, Mickael; Bringay, Sandra; Ardillon, Vanessa; Quénel, Philippe; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Teisseire, Maguelonne

2014-10-01

To identify local meteorological drivers of dengue fever in French Guiana, we applied an original data mining method to the available epidemiological and climatic data. Through this work, we also assessed the contribution of the data mining method to the understanding of factors associated with the dissemination of infectious diseases and their spatiotemporal spread. We applied contextual sequential pattern extraction techniques to epidemiological and meteorological data to identify the most significant climatic factors for dengue fever, and we investigated the relevance of the extracted patterns for the early warning of dengue outbreaks in French Guiana. The maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, global brilliance, and cumulative rainfall were identified as determinants of dengue outbreaks, and the precise intervals of their values and variations were quantified according to the epidemiologic context. The strongest significant correlations were observed between dengue incidence and meteorological drivers after a 4-6-week lag. We demonstrated the use of contextual sequential patterns to better understand the determinants of the spatiotemporal spread of dengue fever in French Guiana. Future work should integrate additional variables and explore the notion of neighborhood for extracting sequential patterns. Dengue fever remains a major public health issue in French Guiana. The development of new methods to identify such specific characteristics becomes crucial in order to better understand and control spatiotemporal transmission. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Arterial hypertension and skin allergy are risk factors for progression from dengue to dengue hemorrhagic fever: a case control study.

PubMed

Teixeira, Maria Glória; Paixão, Enny S; Costa, Maria da Conceição N; Cunha, Rivaldo V; Pamplona, Luciano; Dias, Juarez P; Figueiredo, Camila A; Figueiredo, Maria Aparecida A; Blanton, Ronald; Morato, Vanessa; Barreto, Maurício L; Rodrigues, Laura C

2015-05-01

Currently, knowledge does not allow early prediction of which cases of dengue fever (DF) will progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), to allow early intervention to prevent progression or to limit severity. The objective of this study is to investigate the hypothesis that some specific comorbidities increase the likelihood of a DF case progressing to DHF. A concurrent case-control study, conducted during dengue epidemics, from 2009 to 2012. Cases were patients with dengue fever that progressed to DHF, and controls were patients of dengue fever who did not progress to DHF. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between DHF and comorbidities. There were 490 cases of DHF and 1,316 controls. Among adults, progression to DHF was associated with self-reported hypertension (OR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.1) and skin allergy (OR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.2) with DHF after adjusting for ethnicity and socio-economic variables. There was no statistically significant association between any chronic disease and progression to DHF in those younger than 15 years. Physicians attending patients with dengue fever should keep those with hypertension or skin allergies in health units to monitor progression for early intervention. This would reduce mortality by dengue.

Dengue virus infection in renal allograft recipients: a case series during 2010 outbreak.

PubMed

Prasad, N; Bhadauria, D; Sharma, R K; Gupta, A; Kaul, A; Srivastava, A

2012-04-01

Dengue virus infection is an emerging global threat caused by Arbovirus, a virus from Flaviridiae family, which is transmitted by mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Renal transplant recipients who live in the endemic zones of dengue infection or who travel to an endemic zone could be at risk of this infection. Despite multiple epidemics and a high case fatality rate in the Southeast Asian region, only a few cases of dengue infection in renal transplant recipients have been reported. Here, we report a case series of 8 dengue viral infection in renal transplant recipients. Of the 8 patients, 3 developed dengue hemorrhagic shock syndrome and died. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Lin, C D; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W

2013-12-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983-2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission "weather-space," basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27-29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-24

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

Spatio-temporal distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change in the southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2014-05-01

Dengue fever has been recognized as the most important widespread vector-borne infectious disease in recent decades. Over 40% of the world's population is risk from dengue and about 50-100 million people are infected world wide annually. Previous studies have found that dengue fever is highly correlated with climate covariates. Thus, the potential effects of global climate change on dengue fever are crucial to epidemic concern, in particular, the transmission of the disease. This present study investigated the nonlinearity of time-delayed impact of climate on spatio-temporal variations of dengue fever in the southern Taiwan during 1998 to 2011. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) is used to assess the nonlinear lagged effects of meteorology. The statistically significant meteorological factors are considered, including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall. The relative risk and the distribution of dengue fever then predict under various climate change scenarios. The result shows that the relative risk is similar for different scenarios. In addition, the impact of rainfall on the incidence risk is higher than temperature. Moreover, the incidence risk is associated to spatially population distribution. The results can be served as practical reference for environmental regulators for the epidemic prevention under climate change scenarios.

An innovative forecasting and dashboard system for Malaysian dengue trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Shaharanee, Izwan Nizal Mohd

2016-08-01

Dengue fever has been recognized in over 100 countries and 2.5 billion people live in areas where dengue is endemic. It is currently a serious arthropod-borne disease, affecting around 50-100 million people worldwide every year. Dengue fever is also prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the past year. In 2012, a total of 21,900 cases of dengue fever were reported with 35 deaths. Dengue, a mosquito-transmitted virus, causes a high fever accompanied by significant pain in afflicted patient and the Aedes Aegypti mosquito is the primary disease carrier. Knowing the dangerous effect of dengue fever, thus one of the solutions is to implement an innovative forecasting and dashboard system of dengue spread in Malaysia, with emphasize on an early prediction of dengue outbreak. Specifically, the model developed will provide with a valuable insight into strategically managing and controlling the future dengue epidemic. Importantly, this research will deliver the message to health policy makers such as The Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH), practitioners, and researchers of the importance to integrate their collaboration in exploring the potential strategies in order to reduce the future burden of the increase in dengue transmission cases in Malaysia.

Spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic tropical city in northern Argentina.

PubMed

Gil, José F; Palacios, Maximiliano; Krolewiecki, Alejandro J; Cortada, Pedro; Flores, Rosana; Jaime, Cesar; Arias, Luis; Villalpando, Carlos; Alberti DÁmato, Anahí M; Nasser, Julio R; Aparicio, Juan P

2016-06-01

After more than eighty years dengue reemerged in Argentina in 1997. Since then, the largest epidemic in terms of geographical extent, magnitude and mortality, was recorded in 2009. In this report we analyzed the DEN-1 epidemic spread in Orán, a mid-size city in a non-endemic tropical area in Northern Argentina, and its correlation with demographic and socioeconomic factors. Cases were diagnosed by ELISA between January and June 2009. We applied a space-time and spatial scan statistic under a Poisson model. Possible association between dengue incidence and socio-economic variables was studied with the Spearman correlation test. The epidemic started from an imported case from Bolivia and space-time analysis detected two clusters: one on February and other in April (in the south and the northeast of the city respectively) with risk ratios of 25.24 and 4.07 (p<0.01). Subsequent cases spread widely around the city without significant space-temporal clustering. Maximum values of the entomological indices were observed in January, at the beginning of the epidemic (B=21.96; LH=8.39). No statistically significant association between socioeconomic variables and dengue incidence was found but positive correlation between population size and the number of cases (p<0.05) was detected. Two mechanisms may explain the observed pattern of epidemic spread in this non-endemic tropical city: a) Short range dispersal of mosquitoes and people generates clusters of cases and b) long-distance (within the city) human movement contributes to a quasi-random distribution of cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevention of Dengue Fever: An Exploratory School-Community Intervention Involving Students Empowered as Change Agents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayawardene, Wasantha P.; Lohrmann, David K.; YoussefAgha, Ahmed H.; Nilwala, Dayani C.

2011-01-01

Background: Dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) are epidemic and endemic in tropical and subtropical countries including Sri Lanka. Numerous structural and community interventions have been shown to be effective in interrupting the life cycle of mosquitoes that transmit DF/DHF; however, these interventions are not always implemented…

Dengue among American missionaries returning from Jamaica, 2012.

PubMed

Moncayo, Abelardo C; Baumblatt, Jane; Thomas, Dana; Harvey, Kira A; Atrubin, David; Stanek, Danielle; Sotir, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L; Jentes, Emily S; Sharp, Tyler M; Arguello, D Fermin

2015-01-01

Dengue is an acute febrile illness caused by any of four mosquito-transmitted dengue virus (DENV) types. Dengue is endemic in Jamaica, where an epidemic occurred in 2012. An investigation was conducted by multiple agencies for 66 missionaries traveling from nine US states to Jamaica after 1 missionary from the group was confirmed to have dengue. Travelers were offered diagnostic testing, and a survey was administered to assess knowledge, behaviors, and illness. Of 42 survey respondents, 9 (21%) respondents reported an acute febrile illness during or after travel to Jamaica. Of 15 travelers that provided serum specimens, 4 (27%) travelers had detectable anti-DENV immunoglobulin M antibody, and 1 traveler also had DENV-1 detected by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Recent or past infection with a DENV was evident in 93% (13 of 14) missionaries with available sera. No behavioral or demographic factors were significantly associated with DENV infection. This investigation shows that even trips of short duration to endemic areas present a risk of acquiring dengue. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-10-01

In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Methodology/Principal findings Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011–2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. Conclusion and significance The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings

Mediational effects of self-efficacy dimensions in the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviour with respect to control of dengue outbreaks: a structural equation model of a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Isa, Affendi; Loke, Yoon K; Smith, Jane R; Papageorgiou, Alexia; Hunter, Paul R

2013-01-01

Dengue fever is endemic in Malaysia, with frequent major outbreaks in urban areas. The major control strategy relies on health promotional campaigns aimed at encouraging people to reduce mosquito breeding sites close to people's homes. However, such campaigns have not always been 100% effective. The concept of self-efficacy is an area of increasing research interest in understanding how health promotion can be most effective. This paper reports on a study of the impact of self-efficacy on dengue knowledge and dengue preventive behaviour. We recruited 280 adults from 27 post-outbreak villages in the state of Terengganu, east coast of Malaysia. Measures of health promotion and educational intervention activities and types of communication during outbreak, level of dengue knowledge, level and strength of self-efficacy and dengue preventive behaviour were obtained via face-to-face interviews and questionnaires. A structural equation model was tested and fitted the data well (χ(2) = 71.659, df = 40, p = 0.002, RMSEA = 0.053, CFI = 0.973, TLI = 0.963). Mass media, local contact and direct information-giving sessions significantly predicted level of knowledge of dengue. Level and strength of self-efficacy fully mediated the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. Strength of self-efficacy acted as partial mediator in the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. To control and prevent dengue outbreaks by behavioural measures, health promotion and educational interventions during outbreaks should now focus on those approaches that are most likely to increase the level and strength of self-efficacy.

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; He, Jianfeng; Deng, Aiping; Peng, Zhiqiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Xie, Runsheng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data. Methodology and principal findings A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29). Conclusions Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou. PMID:28263988

Assessing the methods needed for improved dengue mapping: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Attaway, David Frost; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel M

2014-01-01

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral infection, is a growing threat to human health in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide. There is a demand from public officials for maps that capture the current distribution of dengue and maps that analyze risk factors to predict the future burden of disease. To identify relevant articles, we searched Google Scholar, PubMed, BioMed Central, and WHOLIS (World Health Organization Library Database) for published articles with a specific set of dengue criteria between January 2002 and July 2013. After evaluating the currently available dengue models, we identified four key barriers to the creation of high-quality dengue maps: (1) data limitations related to the expense of diagnosing and reporting dengue cases in places where health information systems are underdeveloped; (2) issues related to the use of socioeconomic proxies in places with limited dengue incidence data; (3) mosquito ranges which may be changing as a result of climate changes; and (4) the challenges of mapping dengue events at a variety of scales. An ideal dengue map will present endemic and epidemic dengue information from both rural and urban areas. Overcoming the current barriers requires expanded collaboration and data sharing by geographers, epidemiologists, and entomologists. Enhanced mapping techniques would allow for improved visualizations of dengue rates and risks.

Online platform for applying space-time scan statistics for prospectively detecting emerging hot spots of dengue fever.

PubMed

Chen, Chien-Chou; Teng, Yung-Chu; Lin, Bo-Cheng; Fan, I-Chun; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-11-25

Cases of dengue fever have increased in areas of Southeast Asia in recent years. Taiwan hit a record-high 42,856 cases in 2015, with the majority in southern Tainan and Kaohsiung Cities. Leveraging spatial statistics and geo-visualization techniques, we aim to design an online analytical tool for local public health workers to prospectively identify ongoing hot spots of dengue fever weekly at the village level. A total of 57,516 confirmed cases of dengue fever in 2014 and 2015 were obtained from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (TCDC). Incorporating demographic information as covariates with cumulative cases (365 days) in a discrete Poisson model, we iteratively applied space-time scan statistics by SaTScan software to detect the currently active cluster of dengue fever (reported as relative risk) in each village of Tainan and Kaohsiung every week. A village with a relative risk >1 and p value <0.05 was identified as a dengue-epidemic area. Assuming an ongoing transmission might continuously spread for two consecutive weeks, we estimated the sensitivity and specificity for detecting outbreaks by comparing the scan-based classification (dengue-epidemic vs. dengue-free village) with the true cumulative case numbers from the TCDC's surveillance statistics. Among the 1648 villages in Tainan and Kaohsiung, the overall sensitivity for detecting outbreaks increases as case numbers grow in a total of 92 weekly simulations. The specificity for detecting outbreaks behaves inversely, compared to the sensitivity. On average, the mean sensitivity and specificity of 2-week hot spot detection were 0.615 and 0.891 respectively (p value <0.001) for the covariate adjustment model, as the maximum spatial and temporal windows were specified as 50% of the total population at risk and 28 days. Dengue-epidemic villages were visualized and explored in an interactive map. We designed an online analytical tool for front-line public health workers to prospectively detect ongoing

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

PubMed Central

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

PubMed

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

Clinical Audit of Dengue Related Deaths in 2011-Mayo Hospital Lahore Pakistan

PubMed Central

Iqtadar, Somia; Akbar, Nabeel; Mehmood, Mehreen; Abaidullah, Sajid

2017-01-01

Background and Objective: Dengue infection has evolved into an epidemic during last few years in Pakistan and has been associated with poor outcomes. Literature with respect to mortality risk factors in Dengue infection is not sufficient. This compelled us to conduct this study to find out major contributory factors to death in patients with dengue viral infection at one of Asia’s ancient hospital setting with an aim to recognize complications at earliest and improve case management in future. Methods: A retrospective observational study of 95 adult dengue deaths was performed at Mayo Hospital Lahore from July 1st 2011 to 31st December 2011 during a major dengue epidemic. Patients who tested positive by dengue IgM in the presence of acute fever fulfilling the World Health Organization criteria for Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever or Dengue Shock Syndrome and died within same setting, were included. Data regarding demographic profile, clinical and laboratory parameters along with treatment details were obtained and analysed. All records examined were anonymized. Results: Median age was 36 years (range13-80 years) among 95 deaths due to Dengue. Male gender comprised 60 (63.1%). Co-morbidities existed in 74 (77.9%) with hypertension in 21 (22.1%) diabetes in 11 (11.58%), liver disease in 9 (9.47%) and ischemic heart disease in 8(8.4%) cases. Patients presented at second day of fever for admission (range 1-8 days) and death occurred at a median of 4 days (range 30 minutes to 23 days). Hospital stay was for less than a week for seventy nine (83.2%) patients and 16 (16.8%) were admitted for more than 7 days. Critical care was required in 67(71%). Severe hepatitis occurred in 41 (43.1%), acute renal impairment occurred in 32 (33.7%) and disseminated intravascular coagulation in 16 (16.8%). Deaths were due to prolonged shock 49 (51.5%) fluid overload 46 (48.4%) and massive bleeding 18(19%) leading to organ failure. Conclusion: Decompensated shock complicated by

Clinical Audit of Dengue Related Deaths in 2011-Mayo Hospital Lahore Pakistan.

PubMed

Iqtadar, Somia; Akbar, Nabeel; Mehmood, Mehreen; Abaidullah, Sajid

2017-01-01

Dengue infection has evolved into an epidemic during last few years in Pakistan and has been associated with poor outcomes. Literature with respect to mortality risk factors in Dengue infection is not sufficient. This compelled us to conduct this study to find out major contributory factors to death in patients with dengue viral infection at one of Asia's ancient hospital setting with an aim to recognize complications at earliest and improve case management in future. A retrospective observational study of 95 adult dengue deaths was performed at Mayo Hospital Lahore from July 1st 2011 to 31st December 2011 during a major dengue epidemic. Patients who tested positive by dengue IgM in the presence of acute fever fulfilling the World Health Organization criteria for Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever or Dengue Shock Syndrome and died within same setting, were included. Data regarding demographic profile, clinical and laboratory parameters along with treatment details were obtained and analysed. All records examined were anonymized. Median age was 36 years (range13-80 years) among 95 deaths due to Dengue. Male gender comprised 60 (63.1%). Co-morbidities existed in 74 (77.9%) with hypertension in 21 (22.1%) diabetes in 11 (11.58%), liver disease in 9 (9.47%) and ischemic heart disease in 8(8.4%) cases. Patients presented at second day of fever for admission (range 1-8 days) and death occurred at a median of 4 days (range 30 minutes to 23 days). Hospital stay was for less than a week for seventy nine (83.2%) patients and 16 (16.8%) were admitted for more than 7 days. Critical care was required in 67(71%). Severe hepatitis occurred in 41 (43.1%), acute renal impairment occurred in 32 (33.7%) and disseminated intravascular coagulation in 16 (16.8%). Deaths were due to prolonged shock 49 (51.5%) fluid overload 46 (48.4%) and massive bleeding 18(19%) leading to organ failure. Decompensated shock complicated by either massive plasma leakage, frank bleeding, multi organ

Ongoing outbreak of dengue type 1 in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal: preliminary report.

PubMed

Sousa, C A; Clairouin, M; Seixas, G; Viveiros, B; Novo, M T; Silva, A C; Escoval, M T; Economopoulou, A

2012-12-06

Following the identification of two autochthonous cases of dengue type 1 on 3 October 2012, an outbreak of dengue fever has been reported in Madeira, Portugal. As of 25 November, 1,891 cases have been detected on the island where the vector Aedes aegypti had been established in some areas since 2005. This event represents the first epidemic of dengue fever in Europe since 1928 and concerted control measures have been initiated by local health authorities.

Fine-grained dengue forecasting using telephone triage services

PubMed Central

Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Kalyanaraman, Shankar; Ahmad, Talal; Pervaiz, Fahad; Saif, Umar; Subramanian, Lakshminarayanan

2016-01-01

Thousands of lives are lost every year in developing countries for failing to detect epidemics early because of the lack of real-time disease surveillance data. We present results from a large-scale deployment of a telephone triage service as a basis for dengue forecasting in Pakistan. Our system uses statistical analysis of dengue-related phone calls to accurately forecast suspected dengue cases 2 to 3 weeks ahead of time at a subcity level (correlation of up to 0.93). Our system has been operational at scale in Pakistan for the past 3 years and has received more than 300,000 phone calls. The predictions from our system are widely disseminated to public health officials and form a critical part of active government strategies for dengue containment. Our work is the first to demonstrate, with significant empirical evidence, that an accurate, location-specific disease forecasting system can be built using analysis of call volume data from a public health hotline. PMID:27419226

The Prevalence and Endemic Nature of Dengue Infections in Guangdong, South China: An Epidemiological, Serological, and Etiological Study from 2005–2011

PubMed Central

Guo, Ru-ning; Lin, Jin-yan; Li, Lin-hui; Ke, Chang-wen; He, Jian-feng; Zhong, Hao-jie; Zhou, Hui-qiong; Peng, Zhi-qiang; Yang, Fen; Liang, Wen-jia

2014-01-01

Objectives Frequent outbreaks of dengue are considered to be associated with an increased risk for endemicity of the disease. The occurrence of a large number of indigenous dengue cases in consecutive years indicates the possibility of a changing dengue epidemic pattern in Guangdong, China. Methods To have a clear understanding of the current dengue epidemic, a retrospective study of epidemiological profile, serological response, and virological features of dengue infections from 2005–2011 was conducted. Case data were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Network. Serum samples were collected and prepared for serological verification and etiological confirmation. Incidence, temporal and spatial distribution, and the clinical manifestation of dengue infections were analyzed. Pearson's Chi-Square test was used to compare incidences between different age groups. A seroprevalence survey was implemented in local healthy inhabitants to obtain the overall positive rate for the specific immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody against dengue virus (DENV). Results The overall annual incidence rate was 1.87/100000. A significant difference was found in age-specific incidence (Pearson's Chi-Square value 498.008, P<0.001). Children under 5 years of age had the lowest incidence of 0.28/100000. The vast majority of cases presented with a mild manifestation typical to dengue fever. The overall seroprevalence of dengue IgG antibody in local populations was 2.43% (range 0.28%–5.42%). DENV-1 was the predominant serotype in circulation through the years, while all 4 serotypes were identified in indigenous patients from different outbreak localities since 2009. Conclusions A gradual change in the epidemic pattern of dengue infection has been observed in recent years in Guangdong. With the endemic nature of dengue infections, the transition from a monotypic to a multitypic circulation of dengue virus in the last several years will have an important bearing on

Simultaneous detection and serotyping of dengue infection using single tube multiplex CDC Dengue Real-Time RT-PCR from India.

PubMed

Sharma, Shashi; Tandel, Kundan; Danwe, Surabhi; Bhatt, Puneet; Dash, P K; Ranjan, Praveer; Rathi, K R; Gupta, Rajiv Mohan; Parida, M M

2018-03-01

Four antigenically different dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) are known to cause infections in humans. Some of these are known to cause more severe disease than the others. Chances for developing Dengue hemorrhagic fever-dengue shock syndrome (DHF-DSS) increases significantly with history of previous infection with one of the four serotypes. Therefore, early diagnosis, serotyping and providing early warning of dengue fever epidemics to concerned authorities becomes very important for better patient outcome and to curb the rapid spread in the community. During the 2014 outbreak, a total of 100 samples from suspected cases of dengue were collected. NS1 antigen based rapid test was used for serological diagnosis. Dengue complex one step reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed to look for presence of viral RNA. Single tube multiplex RT-PCR was also performed to look for infecting serotype. CDC Dengue Multiplex Real Time PCR assay was performed for rapid diagnosis and simultaneous serotyping of the dengue virus. Out of the 100 samples screened, 69 were found to be positive by NS1Ag Rapid test. 34 samples were found positive by dengue consensus RT-PCR assay. 22 samples were found to be positive by single tube Dengue multiplex RT-PCR assay. Serotype DEN-2 was present in maximum numbers followed by DEN-3. 44 samples were found positive by DENV CDC Multiplex Real time PCR assay. DEN-2 was found in maximum numbers followed by DEN-1. Dengue remains to be an important health problem in India and across the globe. Few serotypes of dengue are more dangerous than the others. Rapid diagnosis and serotyping remains the key for better patient management and prevention of disease spreading in the community. Highly sensitive, specific and rapid CDC real time RT-PCR assay was found to be most promising tool among all available molecular diagnostic methods. This will serve a rapid and reliable simultaneous dengue virus detection as well

Could Homeopathy Become An Alternative Therapy In Dengue Fever? An example Of 10 Case Studies.

PubMed

Mahesh, Seema; Mahesh, Mallappa; Vithoulkas, George

2018-01-01

Background: Dengue fever is one of the most rampant epidemics in India of late and any therapy that may help limit the sickness and hospital admissions is worth considering. In India complementary and alternative medicine physicians are medically trained and hence have a role to play in delivery of public health. Case Series: We present a retrospective case series of 10 Indian patients who were diagnosed with dengue fever and treated exclusively with homeopathic remedies at Bangalore, India. This case series demonstrates with evidence of laboratory reports that even when the platelets dropped considerably there was good result without resorting to any other means. Conclusions: A need for further, larger studies is indicated by this evidence, to precisely define the role of homeopathy in treating dengue fever. This study also emphasises the importance of individualised treatment during an epidemic for favourable results with homeopathy. Abbreviations: DF: dengue fever, NS1: non-structural protein 1 antigen, IgG: immunoglobulin G, IgM: immunoglobulin M, +ve: positive, -ve: negative, WBC: white blood cells, RBC: red blood cells, ESR: erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

Dengue-specific serotype related to clinical severity during the 2012/2013 epidemic in centre of Brazil.

PubMed

Rocha, Benigno A M; Guilarde, Adriana O; Argolo, Angela F L T; Tassara, Marianna Peres; da Silveira, Lucimeire A; Junqueira, Isabela C; Turchi, Marília D; Féres, Valéria C R; Martelli, Celina M T

2017-08-02

Please see Additional file 1 for translations of the abstract into the five official working languages of the United Nations. Currently, in Brazil, there is a co-circulation of the four dengue (DENV-1 to DENV-4) serotypes. This study aimed to assess whether different serotypes and antibody response patterns were associated with the severity of the disease during a dengue outbreak, which occurred in 2012/2013 in centre of Brazil. We conducted a prospective study with 452 patients with laboratory confirmed dengue in central Brazil, from January 2012 to July 2013. The clinical outcome was the severity of cases: dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue. The patients were evaluated at three different moments. Blood sampling for laboratory testing and confirmatory tests for dengue infection were performed. We performed a multinomial analysis considering the three categories of the dependent variable, as outlined above. The odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. A multinomial logistic regression model was applied for variables with a P-value <0.20. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA 12.0 software. Four hundred fifty-two patients (452/632, 71.5%) were diagnosed with dengue. The dengue virus (DENV) serotypes were identified in 243 cases. DENV-4 was detected in 135 patients (55.6%), DENV-1 in 91 (37.4%), DENV-3 in 13 (5.3%), and DENV-2 in 4 (1.6%). Patients with the DENV-1 serotype were more prone to present with several clinical and laboratory features as compared with DENV-4 patients, including spontaneous bleeding (P = 0.03), intense abdominal pain (P = 0.004), neurological symptoms (P = 0.09), and thrombocytopenia (P = 0.01). Secondary infection was more predominant among DENV-4 cases (80.0%) compared with DENV-1 cases (62.3%) (P = 0.03). The univariate analysis showed that females (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.44-3.13; P < 0.01) had a higher risk of having dengue with warning signs. The multinomial analysis showed that severe dengue cases with

Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2016-07-01

Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression. In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs. Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and

Mediational Effects of Self-Efficacy Dimensions in the Relationship between Knowledge of Dengue and Dengue Preventive Behaviour with Respect to Control of Dengue Outbreaks: A Structural Equation Model of a Cross-Sectional Survey

PubMed Central

Isa, Affendi; Loke, Yoon K.; Smith, Jane R.; Papageorgiou, Alexia; Hunter, Paul R.

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever is endemic in Malaysia, with frequent major outbreaks in urban areas. The major control strategy relies on health promotional campaigns aimed at encouraging people to reduce mosquito breeding sites close to people's homes. However, such campaigns have not always been 100% effective. The concept of self-efficacy is an area of increasing research interest in understanding how health promotion can be most effective. This paper reports on a study of the impact of self-efficacy on dengue knowledge and dengue preventive behaviour. Methods and Findings We recruited 280 adults from 27 post-outbreak villages in the state of Terengganu, east coast of Malaysia. Measures of health promotion and educational intervention activities and types of communication during outbreak, level of dengue knowledge, level and strength of self-efficacy and dengue preventive behaviour were obtained via face-to-face interviews and questionnaires. A structural equation model was tested and fitted the data well (χ2 = 71.659, df = 40, p = 0.002, RMSEA = 0.053, CFI = 0.973, TLI = 0.963). Mass media, local contact and direct information-giving sessions significantly predicted level of knowledge of dengue. Level and strength of self-efficacy fully mediated the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. Strength of self-efficacy acted as partial mediator in the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. Conclusions To control and prevent dengue outbreaks by behavioural measures, health promotion and educational interventions during outbreaks should now focus on those approaches that are most likely to increase the level and strength of self-efficacy. PMID:24086777

Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm applied to dengue control.

PubMed

Florentino, Helenice O; Cantane, Daniela R; Santos, Fernando L P; Bannwart, Bettina F

2014-12-01

Dengue fever is an infectious disease caused by a virus of the Flaviridae family and transmitted to the person by a mosquito of the genus Aedes aegypti. This disease has been a global public health problem because a single mosquito can infect up to 300 people and between 50 and 100 million people are infected annually on all continents. Thus, dengue fever is currently a subject of research, whether in the search for vaccines and treatments for the disease or efficient and economical forms of mosquito control. The current study aims to study techniques of multiobjective optimization to assist in solving problems involving the control of the mosquito that transmits dengue fever. The population dynamics of the mosquito is studied in order to understand the epidemic phenomenon and suggest strategies of multiobjective programming for mosquito control. A Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm (MGA_DENGUE) is proposed to solve the optimization model treated here and we discuss the computational results obtained from the application of this technique. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Facing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Mexico: the response of the health sector].

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; López-Zaragoza, José Luis; Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Pesqueira, Eduardo; Ponce-de-León, Samuel; Bertozzi, Stefano M

2004-01-01

To analyze the challenges and accomplishments of the Mexican health system as it faced the HIV/AIDS epidemic over the 20 years since discovery of the virus. A review of the relevant literature was done. The topics revised were: HIV/AIDS epidemiology, the early response of the health system and civil society, prevention and risk behaviors, care and treatment, and financing and resources allocation. In Mexico a rapid initial public response surely contributed to containing any early spread of the epidemic to select populations; whether that spread will continue to be contained is an open question. Sexual risk practices remain high not only among traditional risk populations but also among youth. Even though the epidemic remains concentrated in Mexico, principally among MSM and IDU, only 13% of public HIV prevention funds are directed to key populations at especially high risk of becoming infected or infecting others. In recent years antiretroviral coverage has increased rapidly with funding increasing from 30 to 367 million pesos from 2001 to 2003 and coverage now approaching 100%. Of all health spending on HIV/AIDS in the public sector, 82.4% is spent by the social security institutes and 17.6% by the Ministry of Health. The former provides medical care to about half of PLHA while the latter, in addition to caring for the other half, supports the large majority of prevention expenses. One of the challenges faced by the health system which has largely achieved universal antiretroviral coverage is how to provide quality care with appropriate monitoring, promotion of adherence and recognition and treatment of resistance and adverse effects--without dramatically increasing costs.

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Thai, Khoa T. D.; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F.; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P.; van Doorn, H. Rogier; de Vries, Peter J.

2010-01-01

Background Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Methodology Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Principal Findings We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found. Conclusions A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam. PMID:20644621

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

PubMed

Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

2010-07-13

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus Transmission in Thailand

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Lin, C. D.; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Using a novel analytical approach, weather dynamics and seasonal dengue virus transmission cycles were profiled for each Thailand province, 1983–2001, using monthly assessments of cases, temperature, humidity, and rainfall. We observed systematic differences in the structure of seasonal transmission cycles of different magnitude, the role of weather in regulating seasonal cycles, necessary versus optimal transmission “weather-space,” basis of large epidemics, and predictive indicators that estimate risk. Larger epidemics begin earlier, develop faster, and are predicted at Onset change-point when case counts are low. Temperature defines a viable range for transmission; humidity amplifies the potential within that range. This duality is central to transmission. Eighty percent of 1.2 million severe dengue cases occurred when mean temperature was 27–29.5°C and mean humidity was > 75%. Interventions are most effective when applied early. Most cases occur near Peak, yet small reductions at Onset can substantially reduce epidemic magnitude. Monitoring the Quiet-Phase is fundamental in effectively targeting interventions pre-emptively. PMID:23958906

Dengue eye disease.

PubMed

Ng, Aaron W; Teoh, Stephen C

2015-01-01

Dengue fever, a viral disease epidemic in some parts of the world, is of considerable international concern, with a growing incidence owing to developing urbanization, tourism, and trade. Ocular manifestations of dengue fever are uncommon, but of great significance. Proposed mechanisms include direct viral infection as well as immunologic phenomena. Common manifestations include subconjunctival, vitreous, and retinal hemorrhages; posterior uveitis; optic neuritis; and maculopathies such as foveolitis, hemorrhage, and edema. Main symptoms include blurring of vision, scotomata, metamorphopsia, and floaters. Diagnostic and monitoring investigations described included optical coherence tomography, fundus fluorescein and indocyanine green angiography, visual field analysis, and electrophysiologic tests. Management is based on clinical presentation and includes active surveillance as well as various anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive therapies. There have been no prospective, randomized therapeutic trials, and it is unclear if the disease is self-limiting or if treatment is actually beneficial. Prognosis varies, ranging from full resolution to permanent vision loss despite intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the methods needed for improved dengue mapping: a SWOT analysis

PubMed Central

Attaway, David Frost; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel M

2014-01-01

Introduction Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral infection, is a growing threat to human health in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide. There is a demand from public officials for maps that capture the current distribution of dengue and maps that analyze risk factors to predict the future burden of disease. Methods To identify relevant articles, we searched Google Scholar, PubMed, BioMed Central, and WHOLIS (World Health Organization Library Database) for published articles with a specific set of dengue criteria between January 2002 and July 2013. Results After evaluating the currently available dengue models, we identified four key barriers to the creation of high-quality dengue maps: (1) data limitations related to the expense of diagnosing and reporting dengue cases in places where health information systems are underdeveloped; (2) issues related to the use of socioeconomic proxies in places with limited dengue incidence data; (3) mosquito ranges which may be changing as a result of climate changes; and (4) the challenges of mapping dengue events at a variety of scales. Conclusion An ideal dengue map will present endemic and epidemic dengue information from both rural and urban areas. Overcoming the current barriers requires expanded collaboration and data sharing by geographers, epidemiologists, and entomologists. Enhanced mapping techniques would allow for improved visualizations of dengue rates and risks. PMID:25328585

Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects

PubMed Central

Murray, Natasha Evelyn Anne; Quam, Mikkel B; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2013-01-01

Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265–420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012–2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective

Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects.

PubMed

Murray, Natasha Evelyn Anne; Quam, Mikkel B; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2013-01-01

Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265-420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012-2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective of

Dengue fever in the San Juan Bay Estuary: Evaluating the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dengue is transmitted by Aedes aegypti, a species that thrives in cities. Here we ask which elements within the urban environment could be managed to reduce the potential for Dengue occurrence. In particular, we study the potential of wetlands in the SJBE to buffer from vector proliferation. Wetlands provide ecosystem services such as heat and water hazard mitigation, water purification and habitat for a diversity of species, all of which are factors that have been shown to affect Dengue vectors. As such, we hypothesize that within coastal neighborhoods in the SJBE wetlands, ecosystem services lead to lower Dengue occurrence. We test this hypothesis using Dengue data from 2010-2013, which includes the largest epidemic in PR history. Our analytical model includes relevant socio-economic factors and environmental controls that may also affect Dengue dynamics. Results indicated a negative effect of neighborhood mangrove cover and a positive effect of percent flood area on Dengue prevalence. Moreover, heat hazards were positively correlated with dengue prevalence and negatively correlated with neighborhood mangrove cover. Dengue prevalence did not correlate with herbaceous wetlands, or with the ecosystem services of water quality or vertebrate species richness. Mosquito borne diseases are an increasingly important health concern, which pose great challenges for safe and sustainable control and eradication. This reality calls for management approaches that consider m

Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, PR Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Cory; Quattrochi, Dale; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Dengue virus is transmitted between humans and mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and causes approximately 96 million cases of disease (dengue fever) each year (Bhatet al. 2013). Symptoms of dengue fever include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting, and eye, muscle and joint pain (CDC). More sever manifestations such as abdominal pain, bleeding from nose and gums, vomiting of blood, and clammy skin occur in rare cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (CDC). Dengue fever occurs throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide, however, the geographical range and size of epidemics is increasing. Weather and climate are drivers of dengue virus transmission dynamics (Morin et al. 2013) by affecting mosquito proliferation and the virus extrinsic incubation period (i.e. required time for the virus to replicate and disseminate within the mosquito before it can retransmit the virus).

Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Williams, Craig; Ritchie, Scott A.; Rau, Gina; Lindesay, Janette; Mercer, Geoff; Harley, David

2013-01-01

The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991–2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia. PMID:23166197

Spatial patterns of dengue cases in Brazil

PubMed Central

Antonio, Fernando Jose; de Picoli, Sergio; Teixeira, Jorge Juarez Vieira; Mendes, Renio dos Santos

2017-01-01

Dengue infection plays a central role in our society, since it is the most prevalent vector-borne viral disease affecting humans. We statistically investigated patterns concerning the spatial spreading of dengue epidemics in Brazil, as well as their temporal evolution in all Brazilian municipalities for a period of 12 years. We showed that the distributions of cases in municipalities follow power laws persistent in time and that the infection scales linearly with the population of the municipalities. We also found that the average number of dengue cases does not have a clear dependence on the longitudinal position of municipalities. On the other hand, we found that the average distribution of cases varies with the latitudinal position of municipalities, displaying an almost constant growth from high latitudes until reaching the Tropic of Capricorn leveling to a plateau closer to the Equator. We also characterized the spatial correlation of the number of dengue cases between pairs of municipalities, where our results showed that the spatial correlation function decays with the increase of distance between municipalities, following a power-law with an exponential cut-off. This regime leads to a typical dengue traveling distance. Finally, we considered modeling this last behaviour within the framework of a Edwards-Wilkinson equation with a fractional derivative on space. PMID:28715435

Dengue scenario: Chennai perspective-a six-year study (2009-2014).

PubMed

Padmapriya, P; Senthil Kumar, V; Senthil Raja, R; Khaleefathullah Sheriff, A; Uma, T S; Mohana, S; Arunagiri, Kavita; Anupama, A; Saran, N; Kiruba, R; Saravana Murali, K; Suresh Babu, B V; Nivas Chakravarthy, N; Saraswathi, K; Kaveri, K; Gunasekaran, P

2017-01-01

Dengue is a public health problem with an increasing global incidence and geographic distribution in almost all tropical and subtropical countries, with a transition from epidemic to endemic occurrence. In this study, we report a six-year analysis (2009-2014) performed at the Department of Virology, King Institute of Preventive Medicine, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Our data confirm earlier findings that dengue is highly endemic in Chennai. In the present study, 10,099 serum samples from suspected dengue cases were tested for IgM ELISA (NIV Capture) and IgG Panbio ELISA (Australia). Of these suspected cases 6,798 and 3,301 were pediatric and adult cases, respectively, and 1,927 (19.08 %) were confirmed serologically as dengue. Of these, 1,752 (25.7 %) and 175 (5.3 %) were pediatric and adult cases, respectively. The aim of this study was to highlight the occurrence of DHF and DSS, mainly among the pediatric population, in which the infection causes higher mortality and morbidity. The overall positivity was higher in the pediatric group than in the adults. Detection of both IgM and IgG positivity will be useful for monitoring infection rates, the disease spectrum, and the prevalence of the different serotypes, which will give us insight about the circulating serotypes and pathogenicity. These data will be valuable for providing an early warning to predict an impending epidemic leading to major clinical manifestations of DHF and DSS.

Dengue fever virus in Pakistan: effects of seasonal pattern and temperature change on distribution of vector and virus.

PubMed

Bostan, Nazish; Javed, Sundus; Nabgha-E-Amen; Eqani, Syed Ali Musstjab Akber Shah; Tahir, Faheem; Bokhari, Habib

2017-01-01

Dengue fever is regarded as one of the most prominent emerging arboviral infections in Pakistan since its first epidemic almost 2 decades ago. Interplay between potential vectors, susceptible host, and lax environmental conditions may promote the infection, leading to an epidemic. These factors may indeed have played a major role in the spread of the disease in the country, which was limited to Karachi till 2006. With recent natural disasters such as the earthquake in 2005 and flooding in 2010, 2011 and 2012, numbers of vector-borne diseases and outbreaks including dengue fever are on the rise in Pakistan. Therefore, it is a major concern for health sector workers and of utmost importance to have some understanding of the factors affecting disease outbreak for better risk assessment in the region. In the following report we review the climatic as well as host- and vector-associated factors involved in the outbreak of dengue epidemics in Pakistan and highlight high-risk zones in the country. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incomplete Protection against Dengue Virus Type 2 Re-infection in Peru.

PubMed

Forshey, Brett M; Reiner, Robert C; Olkowski, Sandra; Morrison, Amy C; Espinoza, Angelica; Long, Kanya C; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Casanova, Wilma; Wearing, Helen J; Halsey, Eric S; Kochel, Tadeusz J; Scott, Thomas W; Stoddard, Steven T

2016-02-01

Nearly half of the world's population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010-2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010-2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%-65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-17.7). Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics.

[Exploration study of knowledge and attitudes related to prevention and transmission of dengue in Puerto Rico in 2012].

PubMed

Rivera Rodríguez, Ian J; Puig Rivera, Augusto A; Morales-Borges, Raúl H

2013-01-01

We got one of the most significant epidemics of the history of Dengue in Puerto Rico despite all major educational efforts made. The objective is to determine how much knowledge the people have about the prevention and transmission of Dengue virus. We administered a questionnaire of fifteen questions to 140 people of different communities at the metropolitan area as well as in the East area of Puerto Rico during the months of September to November of 2012. 88% were adults, 100 were women and 40 men. The majority was from Caguas, Carolina, San Juan, and Bayamon. 60% were professionals. One hundred percent knew what Dengue is and 90% knows the mosquito. 77% of the participants know the actual epidemics, but the men got a 10% higher knowledge than women on the subject. Around 47% are not prepared to fight the Dengue virus, but they have great knowledge about the preventive measures and the clinical Management of Dengue Syndrome. 66% did not know that Puerto Rico has a Dengue Center from the CDC located at the Island. Only 17.5% of the participants knows that the Dengue Virus can be transmitted through transfusion of blood components. Our study met our objectives showing that we have good knowledge about Dengue, but there is poor knowledge about the transmission of Dengue Virus through transfusion of blood components. There is a big necessity to develop community strategies to eliminate this disease. We recommend repeating this study with more collaboration from other entities, more questions, and more participants.

Invasion and Maintenance of Dengue Virus Type 2 and Type 4 in the Americas†

PubMed Central

Carrington, Christine V. F.; Foster, Jerome E.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Bennett, Shannon N.; Holmes, Edward C.

2005-01-01

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in the Americas in 1981, where it caused epidemics of dengue fever throughout the region. In the same year, the region's first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was reported, caused by an Asian strain of dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that was distinct from the American subtype circulating previously. Despite the importance of these epidemics, little is known about the rates or determinants of viral spread among island and mainland populations or their directions of movement. We employed a Bayesian coalescent approach to investigate the transmission histories of DENV-2 and DENV-4 since their introduction in 1981 and a parsimony method to assess patterns of strain migration. For both viruses there was an initial invasion phase characterized by an exponential increase in the number of DENV lineages, after which levels of genetic diversity remained constant despite reported fluctuations in DENV-2 and DENV-4 activity. Strikingly, viral lineage numbers increased far more rapidly for DENV-4 than DENV-2, indicative of a more rapid rate of exponential population growth in DENV-4 or a higher rate of geographic dispersal, allowing this virus to move more effectively among localities. We propose that these contrasting dynamics may reflect underlying differences in patterns of host immunity. Despite continued gene flow along particular transmission routes, the overall extent of viral traffic was less than expected under panmixis. Hence, DENV in the Americas has a clear geographic structure that maintains viral diversity between outbreaks. PMID:16282468

Natural attenuation of dengue virus type-2 after a series of island outbreaks: a retrospective phylogenetic study of events in the South Pacific three decades ago.

PubMed

Steel, Argon; Gubler, Duane J; Bennett, Shannon N

2010-09-30

Dengue is an expanding arboviral disease of variable severity characterized by the emergence of virus strains with greater fitness, epidemic potential and possibly virulence. To investigate the role of dengue virus (DENV) strain variation on epidemic activity we studied DENV-2 viruses from a series of South Pacific islands experiencing outbreaks of varying intensity and clinical severity. Initially appearing in 1971 in Tahiti and Fiji, the virus was responsible for subsequent epidemics in American Samoa, New Caledonia and Niue Island in 1972, reaching Tonga in 1973 where there was near-silent transmission for over a year. Based on whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis on 20 virus isolates, Tonga viruses were genetically unique, clustering in a single clade. Substitutions in the pre-membrane (prM) and nonstructural genes NS2A and NS4A correlated with the attenuation of the Tongan viruses and suggest that genetic change may play a significant role in dengue epidemic severity. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges and prospects for dengue and malaria control in Thailand, Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Corbel, Vincent; Nosten, Francois; Thanispong, Kanutcharee; Luxemburger, Christine; Kongmee, Monthathip; Chareonviriyaphap, Theeraphap

2013-12-01

Despite significant advances in the search for potential dengue vaccines and new therapeutic schemes for malaria, the control of these diseases remains difficult. In Thailand, malaria incidence is falling whereas that of dengue is rising, with an increase in the proportion of reported severe cases. In the absence of antiviral therapeutic options for acute dengue, appropriate case management reduces mortality. However, the interruption of transmission still relies on vector control measures that are currently insufficient to curtail the cycle of epidemics. Drug resistance in malaria parasites is increasing, compromising malaria control and elimination. Deficiencies in our knowledge of vector biology and vectorial capacity also hinder public health efforts for vector control. Challenges to dengue and malaria control are discussed, and research priorities identified. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice

PubMed Central

Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; McCall, Philip J.; Sánchez Tejeda, Gustavo; Lloyd, Linda S.; Hakim, Lokman; Bowman, Leigh R.; Horstick, Olaf; Coelho, Giovanini

2016-01-01

Background Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Methodology/Principal findings Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Conclusions/Significance Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; McCall, Philip J; Sánchez Tejeda, Gustavo; Lloyd, Linda S; Hakim, Lokman; Bowman, Leigh R; Horstick, Olaf; Coelho, Giovanini

2016-09-01

Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries

Socio-economic, Knowledge Attitude Practices (KAP), household related and demographic based appearance of non-dengue infected individuals in high dengue risk areas of Kandy District, Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Udayanga, Lahiru; Gunathilaka, Nayana; Iqbal, M C M; Pahalagedara, Kusumawathie; Amarasinghe, Upali S; Abeyewickreme, Wimaladharma

2018-02-21

Socio-economic, demographic factors and Knowledge Attitude Practices (KAPs) have been recognized as critical factors that influence the incidence and transmission of dengue epidemics. However, studies that characterize above features of a risk free or low risk population are rare. Therefore, the present study was conducted to characterize the household related, demographic, socio-economic factors and KAPs status of five selected dengue free communities. An analytical cross-sectional survey was conducted on selected demographic, socio-economic, household related and KAPs in five selected dengue free communities living in dengue risk areas within Kandy District, Central Province, Sri Lanka. Household heads of 1000 randomly selected houses were interviewed in this study. Chi-square test for independence, cluster analysis and Principal Coordinates (PCO) analysis were used for data analysis. Knowledge and awareness regarding dengue, (prevention of the vector breeding, bites of mosquitoes, disease symptoms and waste management) and attitudes of the community (towards home gardening, composting, waste management and maintenance of a clean and dengue free environment) are associated with the dengue free status of the study populations. The vector controlling authorities should focus on socio-economic, demographic and KAPs in stimulating the community to cooperate in the integrated vector management strategies to improve vector control and reduce transmission of dengue within Kandy District.

Molecular surveillance of dengue in Minas Gerais provides insights on dengue virus 1 and 4 circulation in Brazil.

PubMed

Dutra, Karina Rocha; Drumond, Betânia Paiva; de Rezende, Izabela Maurício; Nogueira, Maurício Lacerda; de Oliveira Lopes, Débora; Calzavara Silva, Carlos Eduardo; Siqueira Ferreira, Jaqueline Maria; Dos Santos, Luciana Lara

2017-06-01

Dengue, caused by any of the four types of Dengue virus (DENV) is the most important arbovirus in the world. In this study we performed a molecular surveillance of dengue during the greatest dengue outbreak that took place in Divinópolis, Minas Gerais state, Southeast Brazil, in 2013. Samples from 100 patients with clinical symptoms of dengue were studied and 26 were positive. The capsid/premembrane (CprM) and envelope gene sequences of some samples were amplified and sequenced. Molecular analyses demonstrated that two DENV-1 lineages, belonging to genotype V were introduced and co-circulated in Divinópolis. When compared to each other, those lineages presented high genetic diversity and showed unique amino acids substitutions in the envelope protein, including in domains I, II, and III. DENV-4 strains from Divinópolis clustered within genotype IIb and the most recent common ancestor was probably introduced into the city three years before the 2013 epidemic. Here we demonstrated for the first time the circulation of DENV-4 and the co-circulation of two DENV-1 lineages in Midwest region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Moreover our analysis indicated the introduction of five DENV-1 lineages, genotype V into Brazil, in different times. J. Med. Virol. 89:966-973, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated. Methods According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades. Results According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables. Conclusions Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task. PMID:22768874

Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics under Time-varying Force of Infection using Aggregated Notification Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Flavio Codeço; Carvalho, Luiz Max De

2015-12-01

Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and public health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at risk. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimation of the attack ratio of an epidemic and the initial fraction of susceptibles using aggregated incidence data. We derive the probability distribution of the effective reproductive number, Rt, and use MCMC to obtain posterior distributions of the parameters of a single-strain SIR transmission model with time-varying force of infection. Our method is showcased in a data set consisting of 18 years of dengue incidence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We demonstrate that it is possible to learn about the initial fraction of susceptibles and the attack ratio even in the absence of serotype specific data. On the other hand, the information provided by this approach is limited, stressing the need for detailed serological surveys to characterise the distribution of serotype-specific immunity in the population.

Natural attenuation of Dengue Virus Type-2 after a series of island outbreaks: a re-trospective phylogenetic study of events in the South Pacific three decades ago

PubMed Central

Steel, Argon; Gubler, Duane J.; Bennett, Shannon N.

2011-01-01

Dengue is an expanding arboviral disease of variable severity characterized by the emergence of virus strains with greater fitness, epidemic potential and possibly virulence. To investigate the role of dengue virus (DENV) strain variation on epidemic activity we studied DENV-2 viruses from a series of South Pacific islands experiencing outbreaks of varying intensity and clinical severity. Initially appearing in 1971 in Tahiti and Fiji, the virus was responsible for subsequent epidemics in American Samoa, New Caledonia and Niue Island in 1972, reaching Tonga in 1973 where there was near-silent transmission for over a year. Based on whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis on 20 virus isolates, Tonga viruses were genetically unique, clustering in a single clade. Substitutions in the pre-membrane (prM) and nonstructural genes NS2A and NS4A correlated with the attenuation of the Tongan viruses and suggest that genetic change may play a significant role in dengue epidemic severity. PMID:20663532

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported dengue fever in Australia

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaodong; Yakob, Laith; Devine, Gregor; Frentiu, Francesca D.; Fu, Shiu-Yun; Hu, Wenbiao

2016-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist. Recent analyses suggest that global trade and climate change could lead to the re-establishment of Ae. aegypti across the country and promote the spread of dengue nationally. This study aimed to describe the dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported DF cases and their origins, identify the current and potential future high-risk regions and locate areas that might be at particular risk of dengue transmission should competent mosquito vectors expand their range. Our results showed that the geographical distribution of imported DF cases has significantly expanded in mainland Australia over the past decade. In recent years, the geographical distribution of source countries of DF has expanded from the Pacific region and Asia to include Africa and the Americas. Australia is now exposed to dengue importations from all of the regions involved in the current global pandemic. The public health implications of a range expansion of dengue mosquito vectors are severe. Enhanced mosquito surveillance in those areas that have high imported cases is called for to reduce emerging threats from this globally expanding pathogen. PMID:27460696

Airport sentinel surveillance and entry quarantine for dengue infections following a fever screening program in Taiwan.

PubMed

Kuan, Mei-Mei; Chang, Feng-Yee

2012-08-06

dengue epidemics. Therefore, the reinforcement of mosquito bite prevention and household vector control in dengue-endemic or dengue-competent hotspots during an epidemic season is essential and highly recommended.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

PubMed

Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

2018-05-01

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal

Virological study of a dengue type 1 epidemic at Rio de Janeiro.

PubMed

Nogueira, R M; Schatzmayr, H G; Miagostovich, M P; Farias, M F; Farias Filho, J D

1988-01-01

A dengue outbreak started in March, 1986 in Rio de Janeiro and spread very rapidly to other parts of the country. The great majority of cases presented classical dengue fever but there was one fatal case, confirmed by virus isolation. Dengue type 1 strains were isolated from patients and vectors (Aedes aegypti) in the area by cultivation in A. albopictus C6/36 cell line. The cytopathic effect (CPE) was studied by electron microscopy. An IgM capture test (MAC-ELISA) was applied with clear and reproducible results for diagnosis and evaluation of virus circulation; IgM antibodies appeared soon after start of clinical disease, and persisted for about 90 days in most patients. The test was type-specific in about 50% of the patients but high levels of heterologous response for type 3 were observed. An overall isolation rate of 46.8% (813 virus strains out of 1734 specimens) was recorded. The IgM test increased the number of confirmed cases to 58.2% (1479 out of 2451 suspected cases). The importance of laboratory diagnosis in all regions where the vectors are present is emphasized.

Long-term memory cellular immune response to dengue virus after a natural primary infection.

PubMed

Sierra, Beatríz; García, Gissel; Pérez, Ana B; Morier, Luis; Rodríguez, Rayner; Alvarez, Mayling; Guzmán, María G

2002-06-01

This study was conducted to examine the memory T-cell response to dengue virus 20 years after a primary infection. We took advantage of the exceptional epidemiologic situation in Cuba, where the population initially suffered two large successive epidemics due to dengue virus 1 and 2 respectively over a 4-year period. Thereafter, no dengue virus circulation was subsequently observed, except for the Santiago de Cuba municipality. T-cell response was evaluated in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 20 individuals with history of a primary infection by dengue virus 1 or 2. Methods previously shown to induce lymphoproliferation of CD4+ memory T-cell subpopulations were used. We evaluated the proliferative responses generated in those PBMCs after stimulation with dengue virus 1, 2, 3 and 4 antigens in a serotype-specific and serotype-crossreactive way. Serotype-specific and serotype-crossreactive lymphoproliferative responses in all PBMCs donated by dengue immune donors were observed. The serotype-crossreactive response for dengue 2 was stronger than for the rest of the serotypes. This is the first report of cellular memory lymphocyte response specific for dengue virus detected 20 years after a primary infection by dengue.

An evaluation of asymptomatic Dengue infections among blood donors during the 2014 Dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Liao, Qiao; Shan, Zhengang; Wang, Min; Huang, Jieting; Xu, Ru; Huang, Ke; Tang, Xi; Zhang, Weiyun; Nelson, Kenrad; Li, Chengyao; Fu, Yongshui; Rong, Xia

2017-11-01

In 2014, an outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) infection led to 45 171 clinical cases diagnosed in Guangdong province, Southern China. However, the potential risk of blood donors asymptomatically infected with DENV has not been evaluated . In the current study we detected anti-DENV IgG antibody and RNA in volunteer Chinese blood donors. We found that anti-DENV IgG antibody was positively detected in 3.4% (51/1500) and two donors were detected as being DENV RNA positive out of 3000 blood samples. We concluded that the presence of potential DENV in blood donors might be potential risk for blood safety. Therefore, screening for DENV infection should be considered in blood donations during a period of dengue outbreak in high epidemic area of China. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Rachel; Bailey, Trevor C.; Stephenson, David B.; Graham, Richard J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Sá Carvalho, Marilia; Barcellos, Christovam

2011-03-01

This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2.5°×2.5° longitude-latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil.

Neurological Complications in a Polynesian Traveler with Dengue.

PubMed

Doi, Maegan Lm; Tatsuno, Sydney Y; Singh, Gurdev; Tatsuno, Eric M; Mau, Marjorie M

2017-10-01

In recent times, there has been an increased focus on mosquito-borne Flaviviruses, in particular dengue and Zika. With the reappearance of dengue in Hawai'i and the mainland United States (US), clinicians should be aware of both the common presentations of dengue, as well as other less common complications associated with the disease. Dengue can result in neurologic disorders such as encephalopathy, encephalitis, immune-mediated syndromes, neuromuscular dysfunction, and neuro-ophthalmologic disorders. We present an interesting case of dengue that initially presented with classic symptoms (arthropathy, biphasic fever, and rash) and subsequently developed into a neurologic movement disorder with muscle tightening and twitching of the face, chest, and extremities. We review and update the epidemiology, biology, the clinical presentations including the neurologic complications associated with dengue, as well as their management and areas of future study in this field.

Describing the geographic spread of dengue disease by traveling waves.

PubMed

Maidana, Norberto Aníbal; Yang, Hyun Mo

2008-09-01

Dengue is a human disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. For this reason geographical regions infested by this mosquito species are under the risk of dengue outbreaks. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to study the spatial dissemination of dengue using a system of partial differential reaction-diffusion equations. With respect to the human and mosquito populations, we take into account their respective subclasses of infected and uninfected individuals. The dynamics of the mosquito population considers only two subpopulations: the winged form (mature female mosquitoes), and an aquatic population (comprising eggs, larvae and pupae). We disregard the long-distance movement by transportation facilities, for which reason the diffusion is considered restricted only to the winged form. The human population is considered homogeneously distributed in space, in order to describe localized dengue dissemination during a short period of epidemics. The cross-infection is modeled by the law of mass action. A threshold value as a function of the model's parameters is obtained, which determines the rate of dengue dissemination and the risk of dengue outbreaks. Assuming that an area was previously colonized by the mosquitoes, the rate of disease dissemination is determined as a function of the model's parameters. This rate of dissemination of dengue disease is determined by applying the traveling wave solutions to the corresponding system of partial differential equations.

Distribution, seasonal variation & dengue transmission prediction in Sisaket, Thailand

PubMed Central

Wongkoon, S.; Jaroensutasinee, M.; Jaroensutasinee, K.

2013-01-01

Background & objectives: Environmental factors including weather variables may play a significant role in the transmission of dengue. This study investigated the effect of seasonal variation on the abundance of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae and explored the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in Sisaket, Thailand. Methods: The monthly mosquito larval surveys were carried out in urban and rural areas in Sisaket, Thailand from January to December 2010. Data on monthly-reported cases of dengue fever over the period 2004-2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health. Weather data over the same period were obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department. Chi-square test was used to find the differences relating to seasonal variability, areas of study, and mosquito species factors using entomological survey data. Time series Poisson regression analysis was performed using data on monthly weather variables and dengue cases. Results: There were more Ae. aegypti larvae per household than Ae. albopictus larvae in the winter and rainy seasons. More Aedes larvae per household were found in the rainy season than in the winter and summer seasons. Relative humidity at a lag of one month and rainy days in the current month were significant predictors of dengue incidence in Sisaket. Interpretation & conclusions: Increased rain during the current month and less humidity during the previous month might trigger a higher incidence of dengue epidemic in Sisaket. The present findings suggest that the dengue incidence corresponds with the number of Aedes larvae. The seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks coincide with the rainy season. PMID:24135179

Introduction and evolution of dengue virus type 2 in Pakistan: a phylogeographic analysis.

PubMed

Akram, Madiha; Fatima, Zareen; Purdy, Mike A; Sue, Amanda; Saleem, Sana; Amin, Irum; Shahid, Muhammad; Idrees, Muhammad; Nawaz, Rabia

2015-09-22

Pattern of Dengue periodic epidemics through the years along with sporadic cases of Dengue hemorrhagic fever followed by a severe 2011 epidemic of Dengue fever in Pakistan make Pakistan a Dengue endemic country. To study the entry and evolution of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) in Pakistan, we sequenced three full length genomes and 24 complete envelope sequences of DENV-2 from the years 2010, 2011 and 2013 collected from Punjab province of Pakistan. Phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses was applied to three full genome sequences as well as 24 envelope sequences to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-2 in Pakistan. Most of the DENV-2 viruses from the years 2008 to 2013 formed a monophyletic Pakistani clade in IVb sublineage of cosmopolitan genotype except one 2008 DENV-2 strain. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that this 2008 DENV-2 strain was rooted to India 25.4 years ago with a location probability of 0.88. However Pakistani clade rooted back to Sri Lanka 12.6 years ago with a location probability of 0.57. DENV-2 genotype IV was introduced in Pakistan in two time events. First event was introduction from India to Pakistan in the late 1980s (around 1986), and second event was introduction from Sri Lanka to Pakistan around 2000. The later introduction event was responsible for major outbreaks in the Punjab region of Pakistan, including major 2011 outbreak. After the second Introduction event, DENV-2 circulated locally in the region forming a distinct Sublineage within the IVb cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2.

Oral receptivity of Aedes aegypti from Cape Verde for yellow fever, dengue, and chikungunya viruses.

PubMed

Vazeille, Marie; Yébakima, André; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo; Andriamahefazafy, Barrysson; Correira, Artur; Rodrigues, Julio Monteiro; Veiga, Antonio; Moreira, Antonio; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Grandadam, Marc; Failloux, Anna-Bella

2013-01-01

At the end of 2009, 21,313 cases of dengue-3 virus (DENV-3) were reported in the islands of Cape Verde, an archipelago located in the Atlantic Ocean 570 km from the coast of western Africa. It was the first dengue outbreak ever reported in Cape Verde. Mosquitoes collected in July 2010 in the city of Praia, on the island of Santiago, were identified morphologically as Aedes aegypti formosus. Using experimental oral infections, we found that this vector showed a moderate ability to transmit the epidemic dengue-3 virus, but was highly susceptible to chikungunya and yellow fever viruses.

Estimating the Risk of Vertical Transmission of Dengue: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Basurko, Célia; Matheus, Séverine; Hildéral, Hélène; Everhard, Sibille; Restrepo, Marion; Cuadro-Alvarez, Emma; Lambert, Véronique; Boukhari, Rachida; Duvernois, Jean-Pierre; Favre, Anne; Nacher, Mathieu; Carles, Gabriel

2018-04-23

The incidence of dengue worldwide is increasing rapidly. A better understanding of dengue transmission may help improve interventions against this major public health problem. The virus is mostly transmitted by vectors. There are, however, other modes of transmission, notably mother-to-child transmission or vertical transmission. We studied a prospective cohort of 54 women who had dengue while pregnant during the 2012-2013 epidemic in French Guiana to estimate the mother-to-child transmission rate and assess the clinical and biological presentation of neonatal dengue. The rate of vertical transmission was between 18.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.25-31.4) and 22.7% (95% CI: 11.5-37.8), depending on the calculation method used. Mother-to-child transmission occurred both in early and late pregnancy. There were 52 births, including three newborns who presented neonatal dengue with warning signs requiring platelet transfusion. This quantification of the mother-to-child transmission of dengue highlights three points: first, vertical transmission of dengue is not negligible; second, it is more frequent when maternal dengue occurs late during pregnancy near delivery; and third, reliable diagnostic tests must be used to allow the diagnosis of vertical transmission. Our findings indicate that if there is a known history of maternal dengue during pregnancy, or if there is fever during the 15 days before term, cord blood and placenta should be sampled after delivery and tested for the virus, and the newborn should be closely monitored during the postpartum period.

The dengue preface to endemic in mainland China: the historical largest outbreak by Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou, 2014.

PubMed

Luo, Lei; Jiang, Li-Yun; Xiao, Xin-Cai; Di, Biao; Jing, Qin-Long; Wang, Sheng-Yong; Tang, Jin-Ling; Wang, Ming; Tang, Xiao-Ping; Yang, Zhi-Cong

2017-09-22

Dengue was regarded as a mild epidemic in mainland China transmitted by Aedes albopictus. However, the 2014 record-breaking outbreak in Guangzhou could change the situation. In order to provide an early warning of epidemic trends and provide evidence for prevention and control strategies, we seek to characterize the 2014 outbreak through application of detailed cases and entomological data, as well as phylogenetic analysis of viral envelope (E) gene. We used case survey data identified through the Notifiable Infectious Disease Report System, entomological surveillance and population serosurvey, along with laboratory testing for IgM/IgG, NS1, and isolation of viral samples followed by E gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to examine the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the outbreak. The 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou accounted for nearly 80% of total reported cases that year in mainland China; a total of 37,376 cases including 37,340 indigenous cases with incidence rate 2908.3 per million and 36 imported cases were reported in Guangzhou, with 14,055 hospitalized and 5 deaths. The epidemic lasted for 193 days from June 11 to December 21, with the highest incidence observed in domestic workers, the unemployed and retirees. The inapparent infection rate was 18.00% (135/750). In total, 96 dengue virus 1 (DENV-1) and 11 dengue virus 2 (DENV-2) strains were isolated. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the DENV-1 strains were divided into genotype I and V, similar to the strains isolated in Guangzhou and Dongguan in 2013. The DENV-2 strains isolated were similar to those imported from Thailand on May 11 in 2014 and that imported from Indonesia in 2012. The 2014 dengue epidemic was confirmed to be the first co-circulation of DENV-1 and DENV-2 in Guangzhou. The DENV-1 strain was endemic, while the DENV-2 strain was imported, being efficiently transmitted by the Aedes albopictus vector species at levels as high as Aedes aegypti.

Co-occurrence Patterns of the Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti and Aedes mediovitattus, a Dengue Competent Mosquito in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Little, Eliza; Barrera, Roberto; Seto, Karen C.; Diuk-Wasser, Maria

2015-01-01

Aedes aegypti is implicated in dengue transmission in tropical and subtropical urban areas around the world. Ae. aegypti populations are controlled through integrative vector management. However, the efficacy of vector control may be undermined by the presence of alternative, competent species. In Puerto Rico, a native mosquito, Ae. mediovittatus, is a competent dengue vector in laboratory settings and spatially overlaps with Ae. aegypti. It has been proposed that Ae. mediovittatus may act as a dengue reservoir during inter-epidemic periods, perpetuating endemic dengue transmission in rural Puerto Rico. Dengue transmission dynamics may therefore be influenced by the spatial overlap of Ae. mediovittatus, Ae. aegypti, dengue viruses, and humans. We take a landscape epidemiology approach to examine the association between landscape composition and configuration and the distribution of each of these Aedes species and their co-occurrence. We used remotely sensed imagery from a newly launched satellite to map landscape features at very high spatial resolution. We found that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is positively predicted by urban density and by the number of tree patches, Ae. mediovittatus is positively predicted by the number of tree patches, but negatively predicted by large contiguous urban areas, and both species are predicted by urban density and the number of tree patches. This analysis provides evidence that landscape composition and configuration is a surrogate for mosquito community composition, and suggests that mapping landscape structure can be used to inform vector control efforts as well as to inform urban planning. PMID:21989642

A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Withanage, Gayan P; Viswakula, Sameera D; Nilmini Silva Gunawardena, Y I; Hapugoda, Menaka D

2018-04-24

Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis. The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity. The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month's dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.

Production of recombinant dengue non-structural 1 (NS1) proteins from clinical virus isolates.

PubMed

Yohan, Benediktus; Wardhani, Puspa; Aryati; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Sasmono, R Tedjo

2017-01-01

Dengue is a febrile disease caused by infection of dengue virus (DENV). Early diagnosis of dengue infection is important for better management of the disease. The DENV Non-Structural Protein 1 (NS1) antigen has been routinely used for the early dengue detection. In dengue epidemic countries such as Indonesia, clinicians are increasingly relying on the NS1 detection for confirmation of dengue infection. Various NS1 diagnostic tests are commercially available, however different sensitivities and specificities were observed in various settings. This study was aimed to generate dengue NS1 recombinant protein for the development of dengue diagnostic tests. Four Indonesian DENV isolates were used as the source of the NS1 gene cloning, expression, and purification in bacterial expression system. Recombinant NS1 proteins were successfully purified and their antigenicities were assessed. Immunization of mice with recombinant proteins observed the immunogenicity of the NS1 protein. The generated recombinant proteins can be potentially used in the development of NS1 diagnostic test. With minimal modifications, this method can be used for producing NS1 recombinant proteins from isolates obtained from other geographical regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[An outbreak of imported dengue fever from Myanmar to the border of China, with its viral molecular epidemiological features].

PubMed

Zhang, Hai-lin; Fu, Shi-hong; Deng, Zhang; Yuan, Jun; Jiang, Hong-yue; Li, Ming-hua; Gao, Xiao-yan; Wang, Jing-lin; Liu, Yong-hua; Yin, Zheng-liu; Yang, Wei-hong; Zhang, Yu-zhen; Feng, Yun; Wang, Huan-yu; Liang, Guo-dong

2013-05-01

To understand the epidemiologic characteristics of dengue fever, imported from Myanmar to the border of Yunnan province, China. Viral molecular epidemiologic features were also studied. Questionnaires were used on each diagnosed, suspected dengue fever, case or unknown cases with fever when coming from Myanmar entering the port and hospitals in Ruili city of Yunnan province. Serum samples of these patients were collected to detect IgM antibody against dengue virus and RT-PCR assay. Homology and phylogenetic tree based on the whole nucleotide sequence of PrM-C and NS5 gene of dengue virus were further analyzed. A total of 103 sera were collected from patients at acute stage in Ruili city in July to November 2008. Among them, 49 cases were confirmed for dengue fever according to IgM and nucleic acid testings. Except one, other 48 cases were all imported into Ruili, from Myanmar. Of those, 18 patients were residents from Mujie city of Myanmar and hospitalized in Ruili and the rest 30 patients were Chinese citizens who had finished business and returned from Myanmar. Two isolates of serum samples from the imported cases were identified and both homology and phylogenetic analysis were performed, using the nucleotide sequences of PrM and NS5 genes. They were divided into dengue type 1 (RLB61) and dengue type 3 (RLC31) and were closer to the dengue virus strains isolated from Southeast Asia countries. It is confirmed that an epidemic of dengue fever which was imported from Myanmar to Ruili city of Yunnan province, China. Evidence also showed that both type I and III epidemic strains of dengue virus did exist in Mujie city of Myanmar in 2008.

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level

PubMed Central

Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-01-01

Background Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. Methodology / Principal findings In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to ‘nowcast’, i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also ‘forecast’ disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Conclusions Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

PubMed

Marques-Toledo, Cecilia de Almeida; Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-07-01

Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are

Diabetes mellitus increases severity of thrombocytopenia in dengue-infected patients.

PubMed

Chen, Chung-Yuan; Lee, Mei-Yueh; Lin, Kun-Der; Hsu, Wei-Hao; Lee, Yaun-Jinn; Hsiao, Pi-Jung; Shin, Shyi-Jang

2015-02-10

Diabetes mellitus is known to exacerbate bacterial infection, but its effect on the severity of viral infection has not been well studied. The severity of thrombocytopenia is an indicator of the severity of dengue virus infection. We investigated whether diabetes is associated with thrombocytopenia in dengue-infected patients. We studied clinical characteristics of 644 patients with dengue infection at a university hospital during the epidemic on 1 June 2002 to 31 December 2002 in Taiwan. Platelet counts and biochemical data were compared between patients with and without diabetes. Potential risk factors associated with thrombocytopenia were explored using regression analyses. Dengue-infected patients with diabetes had lower platelet counts than patients without diabetes during the first three days (54.54±51.69 vs. 86.58±63.4 (p≤0.001), 43.98±44.09 vs. 64.52±45.06 (p=0.002), 43.86±35.75 vs. 62.72±51.2 (p=0.012)). Diabetes mellitus, death, dengue shock syndrome (DSS) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and increased glutamic-pyruvate transaminase (GPT) levels were significantly associated with lower platelet counts during the first day of hospitalization for dengue fever with regression β of -13.981 (95% confidence interval (CI) -27.587, -0.374), -26.847 (95% CI -37.562, -16.132), and 0.054 (95% CI 0.015, 0.094) respectively. Older age, hypoalbuminemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were independently correlated with thrombocytopenia in dengue patients with or without diabetes with regression β of -2.947 (p=0.004), 2.801 (p=0.005), and -3.568 (p≤0.001), respectively. Diabetic patients with dengue had a higher rate of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS) than non-diabetic patients. They also had lower blood albumin, were older, and higher triglyceride levels. Older age, hypoalbuminemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were independently correlated with thrombocytopenia in dengue patients. Dengue patients with diabetes tended to have more severe

Accuracy of Zika virus disease case definition during simultaneous Dengue and Chikungunya epidemics.

PubMed

Braga, José Ueleres; Bressan, Clarisse; Dalvi, Ana Paula Razal; Calvet, Guilherme Amaral; Daumas, Regina Paiva; Rodrigues, Nadia; Wakimoto, Mayumi; Nogueira, Rita Maria Ribeiro; Nielsen-Saines, Karin; Brito, Carlos; Bispo de Filippis, Ana Maria; Brasil, Patrícia

2017-01-01

Zika is a new disease in the American continent and its surveillance is of utmost importance, especially because of its ability to cause neurological manifestations as Guillain-Barré syndrome and serious congenital malformations through vertical transmission. The detection of suspected cases by the surveillance system depends on the case definition adopted. As the laboratory diagnosis of Zika infection still relies on the use of expensive and complex molecular techniques with low sensitivity due to a narrow window of detection, most suspected cases are not confirmed by laboratory tests, mainly reserved for pregnant women and newborns. In this context, an accurate definition of a suspected Zika case is crucial in order for the surveillance system to gauge the magnitude of an epidemic. We evaluated the accuracy of various Zika case definitions in a scenario where Dengue and Chikungunya viruses co-circulate. Signs and symptoms that best discriminated PCR confirmed Zika from other laboratory confirmed febrile or exanthematic diseases were identified to propose and test predictive models for Zika infection based on these clinical features. Our derived score prediction model had the best performance because it demonstrated the highest sensitivity and specificity, 86·6% and 78·3%, respectively. This Zika case definition also had the highest values for auROC (0·903) and R2 (0·417), and the lowest Brier score 0·096. In areas where multiple arboviruses circulate, the presence of rash with pruritus or conjunctival hyperemia, without any other general clinical manifestations such as fever, petechia or anorexia is the best Zika case definition.

Airport sentinel surveillance and entry quarantine for dengue infections following a fever screening program in Taiwan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

, including those with or without symptoms, is critical to prevent dengue epidemics. Therefore, the reinforcement of mosquito bite prevention and household vector control in dengue-endemic or dengue-competent hotspots during an epidemic season is essential and highly recommended. PMID:22867003

[Interepidemic transmission of dengue in the city of Colima, Mexico].

PubMed

Espinoza-Gómez, Francisco; Hernández-Suárez, Carlos Moisés; Rendón-Ramírez, Ruth; Carrillo-Alvarez, Mayra Lizet; Flores-González, Juan Carlos

2003-01-01

To determine the occurrence of interepidemic dengue in a community infested with Aedes aegypti and to analyze its epidemiologic characteristics. A longitudinal probabilistic study was carried out in Colima City between 2001 and 2002. The sample population consisted of 245 subjects. The following were recorded for each subject: sex, age, socio-economic level and dengue fever symptoms, testing for serum IgG and IgM antidengue, using quick immunochromatography as well as ELISA tests, in a seven-month follow-up period. Twelve individuals showed recent dengue infection (incidence: 1.77%; 95%: confidence interval 0.9-3.1%). Of these, eight had recent clinical symptoms (chi 2 = 19.6; p < 0.0001, odss ratio 19.6). Poisson regression analysis showed no evidence of correlation between recent infection and sex, age, or socioeconomic level. Communities infested with A. aegypti, like Colima, may continually exhibit dengue infection with no apparent epidemic. Such infections are seemingly not associated with age, sex, or socioeconomic level, but with clinical symptoms. This situation could be considered an early indicator of interepidemic transmission.

Lineage shift of dengue virus in Eastern India: an increased implication for DHF/DSS.

PubMed

Shrivastava, A; Soni, M; Shrivastava, S; Sharma, S; Dash, P K; Gopalan, N; Behera, P K; Parida, M M

2015-06-01

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, has become a major public health problem with marked expansion in recent decades. Dengue has now become hyperendemic in India with co-circulation of all the four serotypes. Herein, we report an unprecedented outbreak which occurred during August to October 2011 in Odisha, eastern India. This is the first report of a large epidemic in Odisha. Detailed serological and molecular investigation was carried out to identify the aetiology. Almost half of the samples were found to be dengue antigen (NS1) positive. Further molecular assays revealed circulation of mixed dengue serotypes (DENV-2 and DENV-3). Cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 and -3 were identified as the aetiology by phylogenetic analysis. Interestingly, a new lineage of DENV-3 within cosmopolitan genotype was incriminated in this outbreak. The emergence of the unprecedented magnitude of the dengue outbreak with the involvement of a novel lineage of DENV in a newer state of India is a major cause for concern. There is an urgent need to monitor phylodynamics of dengue viruses in other endemic areas.

Understanding environmental and climatic influences on regional differences and spatio-temporalscale issues of dengue fever transmission in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Ginsberg, H. S.; Couret, J.

2015-12-01

Each year, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever worldwide, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago, with some estimates even higher. Puerto Rico (PR) has experienced epidemic dengue activity since 1963, and the disease is currently endemic. Since 1990 there have been 4 large epidemics, the most recent in 2010 where there were nearly 27,000 cases reported, amounting to almost 1% of the island's total population. Because no vaccine is currently available, effective control is dependent on our ability to understand the complex relationship between environmental factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, as humans are the preferred host for Ae. aegypti. The purpose of our analysis is to assess temporal and spatial patterns of dengue transmission in PR and relate this to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. Unlike past studies, which have used San Juan to represent the island as a whole, our research will investigate regional dynamics in dengue transmission, as preliminary results have shown significant differences in population density, disease incidence, and environmental and climatic variables. Data from the Passive Dengue Surveillance System of CDC, meteorological observations from NCDC, and remote sensing data from USGS and NASA will be used together to identify relationships between climate, urbanization, and dengue incidence for PR at various spatial and temporal scales. Preliminary climatic factors considered include precipitation, temperature, humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, we will assess measures of urbanization such as land cover, land use, population density, and infrastructure that can make regional differences in dengue incidence each year. Results from this study could help create early warning systems for dengue surveillance in Puerto Rico, and develop techniques that can be applied to other areas of the world.

Community Participation, Dengue Fever Prevention and Control Practices in Swat, Pakistan.

PubMed

Zahir, Abdul; Ullah, Asad; Shah, Mussawar; Mussawar, Arsalan

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the role of community participation in prevention of dengue fever in The Swat district located in the Northern area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, which experienced a dengue fever outbreak in August, 2013. A total number of 8,963 dengue cases with 0.4% case fatality ratio were registered during the outbreak. A sample size of 354 respondents were proportionally allocated to each residential colony and then randomly selected. The association of independent variable (Community participation) and dependent variable (practices for control) were tested by using Chi Square test. Results regarding perception of practices for dengue control with community participation showed that: practices for control had significant association with organization of people to eradicate dengue mosquitoes (p=0.00), community leaders (p=0.04), community efforts (p≤0.01), use of insecticides by community people (p=0.00) and involvement of community people in awareness campaign (p=0.00). Similarly, significant associations were found between practices for control and community shared information during dengue outbreak (p=0.00), community link with health department, NGO, Other agencies (p=0.02). We conclude that the spread of dengue epidemic was aided by the ignorance, laziness of the community people and government agencies. However, the people, religious scholars, leaders and government agencies were not organized to participate in dengue prevention and eradication, hence, the chances of dengue infection increased in community. The study recommends mobilizing local communities and activating local leadership with active participation of Government and non-government organizations for initiation of preventive strategies.

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MedlinePlus

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The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

PubMed Central

Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G.; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

2018-01-01

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain–Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide. PMID:29315224

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

2018-01-09

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A State-of-the-Art Review Focused in Pulmonary Involvement.

PubMed

de Almeida, Renata Rocha; Paim, Bernardo; de Oliveira, Solange Artimos; Souza, Arthur Soares; Gomes, Antônio Carlos Portugal; Escuissato, Dante Luiz; Zanetti, Gláucia; Marchiori, Edson

2017-08-01

Dengue fever is an arboviral disease transmitted to humans through the bites of infected female Aedes mosquitoes. Dengue virus is a member of the Flaviviridae family, and human infection can be caused by any of the four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). The infection has become recognized as the most important and prevalent arboviral disease in humans, endemic in almost 100 countries worldwide. Nearly 3 billion people live in areas with transmission risk. Autochthonous transmission of the virus in previously disease-free areas, increased incidence in endemic areas, and epidemic resurgence in controlled regions could increase the risk of contracting more severe forms of the disease, such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Symptomatic dengue virus infection can present with a wide range of clinical manifestations, from mild fever to life-threatening DSS. Thoracic complications may manifest as pleural effusion, pneumonitis, non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and hemorrhage/hemoptysis. No vaccine is currently available and no specific treatment for dengue fever exists, but prevention and prompt management of complications in patients with DHF can help reduce mortality. This review describes the main clinical, pathological, and imaging findings of thoracic involvement in DHF.

Molecular epidemiology of type 1 and 2 dengue viruses in Brazil from 1988 to 2001.

PubMed

Pires Neto, R J; Lima, D M; de Paula, S O; Lima, C M; Rocco, I M; Fonseca, B A L

2005-06-01

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that in recent decades has become a major international public health concern. Epidemic dengue fever reemerged in Brazil in 1981. Since 1990 more than one dengue virus serotype has been circulating in this tropical country and increasing rates of dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome have been detected every year. Some evidence supports the association between the introduction of a new serotype and/or genotype in a region and the appearance of dengue hemorrhagic fever. In order to study the evolutionary relationships and possible detection of the introduction of new dengue virus genotypes in Brazil in the last years, we analyzed partial nucleotide sequences of 52 Brazilian samples of both dengue type 1 and dengue type 2 isolated from 1988 to 2001 from highly endemic regions. A 240-nucleotide-long sequence from the envelope/nonstructural protein 1 gene junction was used for phylogenetic analysis. After comparing the nucleotide sequences originally obtained in this study to those previously studied by others, and analyzing the phylogenetic trees, we conclude that, after the initial introduction of the currently circulating dengue-1 and dengue-2 genotypes in Brazil, there has been no evidence of introduction of new genotypes since 1988. The increasing number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases seen in Brazil in the last years is probably associated with secondary infections or with the introduction of new serotypes but not with the introduction of new genotypes.

The early use of break-bone fever (Quebranta huesos, 1771) and dengue (1801) in Spanish.

PubMed

Rigau-Pérez, J G

1998-08-01

The appellation of break-bone fever for dengue is attributed to the popular name given to the disease in the first described epidemic of an illness that is clinically compatible with dengue in Philadelphia in 1780. The origin of the word dengue as the name of an illness is currently attributed to the Swahili phrase Ka dinga pepo, thought to have crossed from Africa to the Caribbean in 1827; in Cuba this phrase was popularly identified with the Spanish word dengue. This article presents documents from Spanish archives that indicate the use of quebranta huesos (break-bone) by a physician in Puerto Rico to describe a febrile illness in 1771, and the use of the term dengue by the Queen of Spain in 1801 to describe an acute febrile illness with bone and joint pains, hemorrhage, and jaundice. These texts are evidence of a more generalized use of the term break-bone than previously recognized, and conversely, the specifically Spanish origin of dengue as the name for an illness.

[Dengue fever in the Reunion Island and in South Western islands of the Indian Ocean].

PubMed

D'Ortenzio, E; Balleydier, E; Baville, M; Filleul, L; Renault, P

2011-09-01

South Western islands of the Indian Ocean are permanently threatened by dengue fever outbreaks. On the Reunion Island, two dengue outbreaks were biologically documented (1977-1978 and 2004). And since July 2004 there has been an inter-epidemic period for the island with sporadic cases and clusters. Between January 1, 2007 and October 5, 2009, the epidemiologic surveillance system detected five confirmed autochthonous cases, five confirmed imported cases (South-East Asia), and 71 probable cases. All the five autochthonous confirmed cases occurred in Saint-Louis during two consecutive clusters. In other South Western islands of the Indian Ocean, several dengue fever outbreaks have been reported. Importation of dengue virus from South-East Asia is a major risk for a new outbreak on the island. The introduction of a new serotype could lead to the emergence of new and severe clinical forms, including dengue hemorrhagic fever. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Cloning and Expression of Genes for Dengue Virus Type-2 Encoded-Antigens for Rapid Diagnosis and Vaccine Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-31

00 0 Cloning and Expression of Genes for Dengue Virus (Type-2 Encoded-Antigens for Rapid ODiagnosis and Vaccine DevelopmentN| ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT...11. TITLE (include Security Classification) Cloning and Expression of Genes f or Dengue Virus Type 2 Fncoded Antigens for Rapid Diagnosis and Vaccine ...epidemics in Central and South Americas and the Caribbean is a cause of major concern. An effective vaccine is not available to protect individuals

Natural vertical transmission of dengue viruses by Aedes aegypti in Bolivia

PubMed Central

Le Goff, G.; Revollo, J.; Guerra, M.; Cruz, M.; Barja Simon, Z.; Roca, Y.; Vargas Florès, J.; Hervé, J.P.

2011-01-01

The natural transmission of dengue virus from an infected female mosquito to its progeny, namely the vertical transmission, was researched in wild caught Aedes aegypti during an important outbreak in the town of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. Mosquitoes were collected at the preimaginal stages (eggs, larvae and pupae) then reared up to adult stage for viral detection using molecular methods. Dengue virus serotypes 1 and 3 were found to be co-circulating with significant higher prevalence in male than in female mosquitoes. Of the 97 pools of Ae. aegypti (n = 635 male and 748 female specimens) screened, 14 pools, collected in February-May in 2007, were found positive for dengue virus infection: five DEN-1 and nine DEN-3. The average true infection rate (TIR) and minimum infection rate (MIR) were respectively 1.08% and 1.01%. These observations suggest that vertical transmission of dengue virus may be detected in vectors at the peak of an outbreak as well as several months before an epidemic occurs in human population. PMID:21894270

Change in Dengue and Japanese Encephalitis Seroprevalence Rates in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Jeewandara, Chandima; Gomes, Laksiri; Paranavitane, S. A.; Tantirimudalige, Mihiri; Panapitiya, Sumedha Sandaruwan; Jayewardene, Amitha; Fernando, Samitha; Fernando, R. H.; Prathapan, Shamini

2015-01-01

Background Sri Lanka has been affected by epidemics of dengue infections for many decades and the incidence and severity of dengue infections have been rising each year. Therefore, we investigated the age stratified seroprevalence of dengue infections in order to facilitate future dengue vaccine strategies. In addition, since the symptomatic dengue infections have increased during the past few decades, we also investigated the possible association with Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) antibody seropositivity with symptomatic dengue in a community cohort in Sri Lanka. Methods 1689 healthy individuals who were attending a primary health care facility were recruited. Dengue and JEV antibody status was determined in all individuals and JEV vaccination status was recorded. Results 1152/1689 (68.2%) individuals were seropositive for dengue and only 133/1152 (11.5%) of them had been hospitalized to due to dengue. A significant and positive correlation was observed for dengue antibody seropositivity and age in children (Spearmans R = 0.84, p = 0.002) and in adults (Spearmans R = 0.96, p = 0.004). We observed a significant rise in the age stratified seroprevalence rates in children over a period of 12 years. For instance, in year 2003 the annual seroconversion rate was 1.5% per annum, which had risen to 3.79% per annum by 2014. We also found that both adults (p<0.001) and in children (p = 0.03) who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV antibodies. However, 244 (91.4%) of adults who were seropositive for JEV had not had the JEV vaccine. Conclusions Dengue seroprevalence rates have risen significantly over the last 12 years in Sri Lanka, possibly due to increased transmission. As individuals who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV, the possibility of cross-reactive assays and/or of JEV infection on immunity to the DENV and clinical disease severity should be further investigated. PMID:26696417

The Usefulness of Clinical-Practice-Based Laboratory Data in Facilitating the Diagnosis of Dengue Illness

PubMed Central

Liu, Jien-Wei; Lee, Ing-Kit; Wang, Lin; Chen, Rong-Fu; Yang, Kuender D.

2013-01-01

Alertness to dengue and making a timely diagnosis is extremely important in the treatment of dengue and containment of dengue epidemics. We evaluated the complementary role of clinical-practice-based laboratory data in facilitating suspicion/diagnosis of dengue. One hundred overall dengue (57 dengue fever [DF] and 43 dengue hemorrhagic fever [DHF]) cases and another 100 nondengue cases (78 viral infections other than dengue, 6 bacterial sepsis, and 16 miscellaneous diseases) were analyzed. We separately compared individual laboratory variables (platelet count [PC] , prothrombin time [PT], activated partial thromboplastin time [APTT], alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and aspartate aminotransferase [AST]) and varied combined variables of DF and/or DHF cases with the corresponding ones of nondengue cases. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) in the diagnosis of DF and/or DHF were measured based on these laboratory variables. While trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, and/or suboptimal PPV/NPV was found at measurements using these variables, prolonged APTT + normal PT + PC < 100 × 109 cells/L had a favorable sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV in diagnosis of DF and/or DHF. In conclusion, these data suggested that prolonged APTT + normal PT + PC < 100 × 109 cells/L is useful in evaluating the likelihood of DF and/or DHF. PMID:24455678

Space and space-time distributions of dengue in a hyper-endemic urban space: the case of Girardot, Colombia.

PubMed

Fuentes-Vallejo, Mauricio

2017-07-24

Dengue is a widely spread vector-borne disease. Dengue cases in the Americas have increased over the last few decades, affecting various urban spaces throughout these continents, including the tourism-oriented city of Girardot, Colombia. Interactions among mosquitoes, pathogens and humans have recently been examined using different temporal and spatial scales in attempts to determine the roles that social and ecological systems play in dengue transmission. The current work characterizes the spatial and temporal behaviours of dengue in Girardot and discusses the potential territorial dynamics related to the distribution of this disease. Based on officially reported dengue cases (2012-2015) corresponding to epidemic (2013) and inter-epidemic years (2012, 2014, 2015), space (Getis-Ord index) and space-time (Kulldorff's scan statistics) analyses were performed. Geocoded dengue cases (n = 2027) were slightly overrepresented by men (52.1%). As expected, the cases were concentrated in the 0- to 15-year-old age group according to the actual trends of Colombia. The incidence rates of dengue during the rainy and dry seasons as well as those for individual years (2012, 2013 and 2014) were significant using the global Getis-Ord index. Local clusters shifted across seasons and years; nevertheless, the incidence rates clustered towards the southwest region of the city under different residential conditions. Space-time clusters shifted from the northeast to the southwest of the city (2012-2014). These clusters represented only 4.25% of the total cases over the same period (n = 1623). A general trend was observed, in which dengue cases increased during the dry seasons, especially between December and February. Despite study limitations related to official dengue records and available fine-scale demographic information, the spatial analysis results were promising from a geography of health perspective. Dengue did not show linear association with poverty or with vulnerable

Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Sun, Yehuan; Cameron, Scott; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Weinstein, Philip; Bi, Peng

2017-02-01

This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (T max ) range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9°C, and 11.2-23.7°C for minimum temperature (T min ). A 1°C increase of T max and T min within these ranges was associated with 11.9% and 9.9% increase in dengue at lag0, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for T max and 150 days for T min , the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (>10.7m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Impact of Anthropogenic and Environmental Changes on Dengue Fever Cases in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Couret, J.; Puggioni, G.; Ginsberg, H. S.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever each year, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago. Dengue was introduced to Puerto Rico (PR) in 1963 and it has experienced epidemic activity ever since. There have been 4 large epidemics since 1990, the most recent in 2010 where almost 27,000 cases were reported. Vaccine development remains in the testing stages, and years away from mass distribution. Effective control thus depends on our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental and anthropogenic factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which also carry the Zika virus, and humans in urban environments are their preferred hosts. The purpose of our analysis is to identify trends between anthropogenic and environmental changes and dengue fever cases in PR over the past 15 years. Data on housing and population density, percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy at the municipality level were procured from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MLRC) project, respectively. Land cover data from the National Land Cover Database, created by USGS and NOAA, as well as environmental data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), were also used. Smaller land cover and green space analysis studies have been performed for PR, but this is the first study to consider the island as a whole, and in six distinct regions, with regards to increases in dengue fever cases. The results from this study can be used to understand the effects of urbanization and climate change on vector-borne disease transmission in PR and to project the impact of growing sub-urban and urban areas on dengue cases in coming years. Our results could also be used to assess Dengue and Zika transmission in growing megacites of the world, where urban slums provide a favorable habitat for Ae. aegypti and foster

Unsuspected Dengue as a Cause of Acute Febrile Illness in Children and Adults in Western Nicaragua.

PubMed

Reller, Megan E; de Silva, Aravinda M; Miles, Jeremy J; Jadi, Ramesh S; Broadwater, Anne; Walker, Katie; Woods, Christopher; Mayorga, Orlando; Matute, Armando

2016-10-01

Dengue is an emerging infectious disease of global significance. Suspected dengue, especially in children in Nicaragua's heavily-urbanized capital of Managua, has been well documented, but unsuspected dengue among children and adults with undifferentitated fever has not. To prospectively study dengue in semi-urban and rural western Nicaragua, we obtained epidemiologic and clinical data as well as acute and convalescent sera (2 to 4 weeks after onset of illness) from a convenience sample (enrollment Monday to Saturday daytime to early evening) of consecutively enrolled patients (n = 740) aged ≥ 1 years presenting with acute febrile illness. We tested paired sera for dengue IgG and IgM and serotyped dengue virus using reverse transcriptase-PCR. Among 740 febrile patients enrolled, 90% had paired sera. We found 470 (63.5%) were seropositive for dengue at enrollment. The dengue seroprevalance increased with age and reached >90% in people over the age of 20 years. We identified acute dengue (serotypes 1 and 2) in 38 (5.1%) patients. Only 8.1% (3/37) of confirmed cases were suspected clinically. Dengue is an important and largely unrecognized cause of fever in rural western Nicaragua. Since Zika virus is transmitted by the same vector and has been associated with severe congenital infections, the population we studied is at particular risk for being devastated by the Zika epidemic that has now reached Central America.

Minimizing Spatial Variability of Healthcare Spatial Accessibility-The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak.

PubMed

Chu, Hone-Jay; Lin, Bo-Cheng; Yu, Ming-Run; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-12-13

Outbreaks of infectious diseases or multi-casualty incidents have the potential to generate a large number of patients. It is a challenge for the healthcare system when demand for care suddenly surges. Traditionally, valuation of heath care spatial accessibility was based on static supply and demand information. In this study, we proposed an optimal model with the three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) to account for the supply to minimize variability in spatial accessibility. We used empirical dengue fever outbreak data in Tainan City, Taiwan in 2015 to demonstrate the dynamic change in spatial accessibility based on the epidemic trend. The x and y coordinates of dengue-infected patients with precision loss were provided publicly by the Tainan City government, and were used as our model's demand. The spatial accessibility of heath care during the dengue outbreak from August to October 2015 was analyzed spatially and temporally by producing accessibility maps, and conducting capacity change analysis. This study also utilized the particle swarm optimization (PSO) model to decrease the spatial variation in accessibility and shortage areas of healthcare resources as the epidemic went on. The proposed method in this study can help decision makers reallocate healthcare resources spatially when the ratios of demand and supply surge too quickly and form clusters in some locations.

Molecular identification of the first local dengue fever outbreak in Shenzhen city, China: a potential imported vertical transmission from Southeast Asia?

PubMed

Yang, F; Guo, G Z; Chen, J Q; Ma, H W; Liu, T; Huang, D N; Yao, C H; Zhang, R L; Xue, C F; Zhang, L

2014-02-01

A suspected dengue fever outbreak occurred in 2010 at a solitary construction site in Shenzhen city, China. To investigate this epidemic, we used serological, molecular biological, and bioinformatics techniques. Of nine serum samples from suspected patients, we detected seven positive for dengue virus (DENV) antibodies, eight for DENV-1 RNA, and three containing live viruses. The isolated virus, SZ1029 strain, was sequenced and confirmed as DENV-1, showing the highest E-gene homology to D1/Malaysia/36000/05 and SG(EHI)DED142808 strains recently reported in Southeast Asia. Further phylogenetic tree analysis confirmed their close relationship. At the epidemic site, we also detected 14 asymptomatic co-workers (out of 291) positive for DENV antibody, and DENV-1-positive mosquitoes. Thus, we concluded that DENV-1 caused the first local dengue fever outbreak in Shenzhen. Because no imported case was identified, the molecular fingerprints of the SZ1029 strain suggest this outbreak may be due to vertical transmission imported from Southeast Asia.

Molecular characterisation of dengue virus type 1 reveals lineage replacement during circulation in Brazilian territory.

PubMed

Carneiro, Adriana Ribeiro; Cruz, Ana Cecília Ribeiro; Vallinoto, Marcelo; Melo, Diego de Vasconcelos; Ramos, Rommel Thiago J; Medeiros, Daniele Barbosa Almeida; Silva, Eliana Vieira Pinto da; Vasconcelos, Pedro Fernando da Costa

2012-09-01

Dengue fever is the most important arbovirus infection found in tropical regions around the world. Dispersal of the vector and an increase in migratory flow between countries have led to large epidemics and severe clinical outcomes, such as dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. This study analysed the genetic variability of the dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) in Brazil with regard to the full-length structural genes C/prM/M/E among 34 strains isolated during epidemics that occurred in the country between 1994-2011. Virus phylogeny and time of divergence were also evaluated with only the E gene of the strains isolated from 1994-2008. An analysis of amino acid differences between these strains and the French Guiana strain (FGA/89) revealed the presence of important nonsynonymous substitutions in the amino acid sequences, including residues E297 (Met→Thr) and E338 (Ser→Leu). A phylogenetic analysis of E proteins comparing the studied isolates and other strains selected from the GenBank database showed that the Brazilian DENV-1 strains since 1982 belonged to genotype V. This analysis also showed that different introductions of strains from the 1990s represented lineage replacement, with the identification of three lineages that cluster all isolates from the Americas. An analysis of the divergence time of DENV-1 indicated that the lineage circulating in Brazil emerged from an ancestral lineage that originated approximately 44.35 years ago.

Exploratory wavelet analysis of dengue seasonal patterns in Colombia.

PubMed

Fernández-Niño, Julián Alfredo; Cárdenas-Cárdenas, Luz Mery; Hernández-Ávila, Juan Eugenio; Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos Andrés

2015-12-04

Dengue has a seasonal behavior associated with climatic changes, vector cycles, circulating serotypes, and population dynamics. The wavelet analysis makes it possible to separate a very long time series into calendar time and periods. This is the first time this technique is used in an exploratory manner to model the behavior of dengue in Colombia.  To explore the annual seasonal dengue patterns in Colombia and in its five most endemic municipalities for the period 2007 to 2012, and for roughly annual cycles between 1978 and 2013 at the national level.  We made an exploratory wavelet analysis using data from all incident cases of dengue per epidemiological week for the period 2007 to 2012, and per year for 1978 to 2013. We used a first-order autoregressive model as the null hypothesis.  The effect of the 2010 epidemic was evident in both the national time series and the series for the five municipalities. Differences in interannual seasonal patterns were observed among municipalities. In addition, we identified roughly annual cycles of 2 to 5 years since 2004 at a national level.  Wavelet analysis is useful to study a long time series containing changing seasonal patterns, as is the case of dengue in Colombia, and to identify differences among regions. These patterns need to be explored at smaller aggregate levels, and their relationships with different predictive variables need to be investigated.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

2012-04-01

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

[Dengue hemorrhagic fever serotype and infection pattern in a Colombian endemic area].

PubMed

Ocazionez, Raquel E; Gómez, Sergio Y; Cortés, Fabián M

2007-01-01

Describing the relationship between viral serotypes, infection pattern and dengue hemorrhagic fever. 1,545 febrile patients were studied from 1998-2004 in the Santander department of Colombia. Dengue infection was confirmed by IgM ELISA and the virus was isolated in C6/36 cells. Infection pattern was established by detecting IgG antibodies in acute serum. Neutralising antibody titres were investigated in dengue cases occurring during years when less (1998) and more (2001) dengue hemorrhagic cases were reported by using PRNT. DEN-1 predominance in 1998 and the re-introduction of DEN-3 in 2001 coincided with an epidemic. DEN-2 infection caused more hemorrhagic cases than DEN-3 infection (24,5 % cf 11,2 %; p<0.05). DEN-2 was more associated with secondary infection than DEN-3 (56,8 % cf 15,7 %; p<0.001). An annual decrease of DHF was correlated with decreased DEN-2 dominance (r=0.95; p= 0.01), and secondary infection (r=0.9; p=0.03) and increased DEN-3 predominance (r=-0.91; p=0.03). There were no differences in neutralising antibody titres amongst analysed cases. DEN-1 neutralising antibodies presented the highest titres. Change in relative dengue virus serotype abundance was associated with changed infection pattern and DHF frequency. Continuing virological surveillance should become a priority for preventing dengue hemorrhagic fever in endemic areas.

The Burden of Dengue and the Financial Cost to Colombia, 2010-2012.

PubMed

Castro Rodríguez, Raúl; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Porras, Alexandra; Galera-Gelvez, Katia; Lopez Yescas, Juan Guillermo; Rueda-Gallardo, Jorge A

2016-05-04

Data on the burden of dengue and its economic costs can help guide health policy decisions. However, little reliable information is available for Colombia. We therefore calculated the burden of the disease, expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), for two scenarios: endemic years (average number of cases in non-epidemic years 2011 and 2012) and an epidemic year (2010, when the highest number of dengue cases was reported in the study period). We also estimated the total economic cost of the disease (U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate for 2012), including indirect costs to households derived from expenses such as preventing entry of mosquitos into the home and costs to government arising from direct, indirect, and prevention and monitoring activities, as well as the direct medical and non-medical costs. In the epidemic year 2010, 1,198.73 DALYs were lost per million inhabitants versus 83.88 in endemic years. The total financial cost of the disease in Colombia from a societal perspective was US$167.8 million for 2010, US$129.9 million for 2011, and US$131.7 million for 2012. The cost of mosquito prevention borne by households was a major cost driver (accounting for 46% of the overall cost in 2010, 62% in 2011, and 64% in 2012). © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Vaccination Against Dengue: Challenges and Current Developments.

PubMed

Guy, Bruno; Lang, Jean; Saville, Melanie; Jackson, Nicholas

2016-01-01

Dengue is a growing threat worldwide, and the development of a vaccine is a public health priority. The completion of the active phase of two pivotal efficacy studies conducted in Asia and Latin America by Sanofi Pasteur has constituted an important step. Several other approaches are under development, and whichever technology is used, vaccine developers face several challenges linked to the particular nature and etiology of dengue disease. We start our review by defining questions and potential issues linked to dengue pathology and presenting the main types of vaccine approaches that have explored these questions; some of these candidates are in a late stage of clinical development. In the second part of the review, we focus on the Sanofi Pasteur dengue vaccine candidate, describing the steps from research to phase III efficacy studies. Finally, we discuss what could be the next steps, before and after vaccine introduction, to ensure that the vaccine will provide the best benefit with an acceptable safety profile to the identified target populations.

Zika, chikungunya and dengue: the causes and threats of new and re-emerging arboviral diseases.

PubMed

Paixão, Enny S; Teixeira, Maria Gloria; Rodrigues, Laura C

2018-01-01

The recent emergence and re-emergence of viral infections transmitted by vectors-Zika, chikungunya, dengue, Japanese encephalitis, West Nile, yellow fever and others-is a cause for international concern. Using as examples Zika, chikungunya and dengue, we summarise current knowledge on characteristics of the viruses and their transmission, clinical features, laboratory diagnosis, burden, history, possible causes of the spread and the expectation for future epidemics. Arboviruses are transmitted by mosquitoes, are of difficult diagnosis, can have surprising clinical complications and cause severe burden. The current situation is complex, because there is no vaccine for Zika and chikungunya and no specific treatment for the three arboviruses. Vector control is the only comprehensive solution available now and this remains a challenge because up to now this has not been very effective. Until we develop new technologies of control mosquito populations, the globalised and urbanised world we live in will remain vulnerable to the threat of successive arbovirus epidemics.

Zika, chikungunya and dengue: the causes and threats of new and re-emerging arboviral diseases

PubMed Central

Paixão, Enny S.; Teixeira, Maria Gloria; Rodrigues, Laura C

2018-01-01

The recent emergence and re-emergence of viral infections transmitted by vectors—Zika, chikungunya, dengue, Japanese encephalitis, West Nile, yellow fever and others—is a cause for international concern. Using as examples Zika, chikungunya and dengue, we summarise current knowledge on characteristics of the viruses and their transmission, clinical features, laboratory diagnosis, burden, history, possible causes of the spread and the expectation for future epidemics. Arboviruses are transmitted by mosquitoes, are of difficult diagnosis, can have surprising clinical complications and cause severe burden. The current situation is complex, because there is no vaccine for Zika and chikungunya and no specific treatment for the three arboviruses. Vector control is the only comprehensive solution available now and this remains a challenge because up to now this has not been very effective. Until we develop new technologies of control mosquito populations, the globalised and urbanised world we live in will remain vulnerable to the threat of successive arbovirus epidemics. PMID:29435366

Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

2017-04-01

Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, P<0.05) and Lag-11 minimum temperature (r=0.416, P<0.05) are found to be the most positively correlated climate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the

[Epidemiologic surveillance of dengue fever in the French army from 1996 to 1999].

PubMed

Meynard, J B; Ollivier-Gay, L; Deparis, X; Durand, J P; Michel, R; Pages, F; Matton, T; Boutin, J P; Tolou, H; Merouze, F; Baudon, D

2001-01-01

Dengue fever is a widespread disease that can occur outside tropical areas. Several thousand French military personnel are exposed to this infectious risk each year and exposure is expected to rise with the creation of a professional army and the increasing number of foreign missions. As a result, dengue fever has become a major priority for the Armed Services Health Corps (ASHC). A system of epidemiological surveillance based on the active participation of all military physicians has been designed by the ASHC to collect and analyze all data relevant to cases of dengue fever involving French military personnel stationed overseas or at home. The purpose of this study is to present data compiled for the period from 1996 to 1999. Analysis of these data demonstrated that the incidence of dengue fever peaked in 1997 due to epidemic outbreaks occurring in French Polynesia and Martinique. In response to these outbreaks control measures were adapted especially in regard to vector control. This study shows that the system of surveillance implemented by the ASHC is an effective but still perfectible tool.

Is dengue a threat to the blood supply?

PubMed Central

Teo, D; Ng, L C; Lam, S

2009-01-01

Dengue is the most common arthropod-borne infection worldwide, affecting at least 50 million people every year and endemic in more than 100 countries. The dengue virus is a single-stranded RNA virus with four major serotypes. Infection with one serotype confers homotypic immunity but not heterologous immunity, and secondary infection with another serotype may lead to more severe disease. The major route of transmission occurs through the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector, but dengue has also been transmitted through blood transfusion and organ transplantation. Infection results in a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from asymptomatic infection, undifferentiated fever, dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) to dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Dengue is spreading rapidly to new areas and with increasing frequency of major outbreaks. A trend has also been observed towards increasing age among infected patients. This will impact blood supply availability as more blood donors are deferred because of dengue infection or exposure to infection. The risk of transmission through transfusion of blood from asymptomatic viraemic donors will also increase. Although screening tests for dengue and effective pathogen reduction processes are now available for the blood supply, the value of implementing these costly measures needs to be carefully considered. Demand for platelets and fresh frozen plasma will rise with increasing number of DHF/DSS. Evidence-based guidelines for the clinical use of these blood components in the management of patients with DHF/DSS have not been well established, and inappropriate use will contribute to the challenges faced by blood services. PMID:19392949

Impact of meteorological factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever incidence.

PubMed

Chien, Lung-Chang; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2014-12-01

Dengue fever is one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases and has caused more than 50 million infections annually over the world. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is crucial to understand the weather-disease associations for dengue fever. This study investigated the nonlinear delayed impact of meteorological conditions on the spatiotemporal variations of dengue fever in southern Taiwan during 1998-2011. We present a novel integration of a distributed lag nonlinear model and Markov random fields to assess the nonlinear lagged effects of weather variables on temporal dynamics of dengue fever and to account for the geographical heterogeneity. This study identified the most significant meteorological measures to dengue fever variations, i.e., weekly minimum temperature, and the weekly maximum 24-hour rainfall, by obtaining the relative risk (RR) with respect to disease counts and a continuous 20-week lagged time. Results show that RR increased as minimum temperature increased, especially for the lagged period 5-18 weeks, and also suggest that the time to high disease risks can be decreased. Once the occurrence of maximum 24-hour rainfall is >50 mm, an associated increased RR lasted for up to 15 weeks. A temporary one-month decrease in the RR of dengue fever is noted following the extreme rain. In addition, the elevated incidence risk is identified in highly populated areas. Our results highlight the high nonlinearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of temperature and rainfall on dengue fever epidemics. The results can be a practical reference for the early warning of dengue fever. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-09-26

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

The changing incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Indonesia: a 45-year registry-based analysis.

PubMed

Karyanti, Mulya Rahma; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hadinegoro, Sri Rezeki; Rovers, Maroeska M; Heesterbeek, Hans; Hoes, Arno W; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia

2014-07-26

Increases in human population size, dengue vector-density and human mobility cause rapid spread of dengue virus in Indonesia. We investigated the changes in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia over a 45-year period and determined age-specific trends in annual DHF incidence. Using an on-going nationwide dengue surveillance program starting in 1968, we evaluated all DHF cases and related deaths longitudinally up to 2013. Population demographics were used to calculate annual incidence and case fatality ratios (CFRs). Age-specific data on DHF available from 1993 onwards were used to assess trends in DHF age-distribution. Time-dependency of DHF incidence and CFRs was assessed using the Cochrane-Armitage trend test. The annual DHF incidence increased from 0.05/100,000 in 1968 to ~ 35-40/100,000 in 2013, with superimposed epidemics demonstrating a similar increasing trend with the highest epidemic occurring in 2010 (85.70/100,000; p < 0.01). The CFR declined from 41% in 1968 to 0.73% in 2013 (p < 0.01). Mean age of DHF cases increased during the observation period. Highest incidence of DHF was observed among children aged 5 to 14 years up to 1998, but declined thereafter (p < 0.01). In those aged 15 years or over, DHF incidence increased (p < 0.01) and surpassed that of 5 to 14 year olds from 1999 onwards. Incidence of DHF over the past 45 years in Indonesia increased rapidly with peak incidence shifting from young children to older age groups. The shifting age pattern should have consequences for targeted surveillance and prevention.

Characterizing a large outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jian-Peng; He, Jian-Feng; Deng, Ai-Ping; Lin, Hua-Liang; Song, Tie; Peng, Zhi-Qiang; Wu, Xiao-Cheng; Liu, Tao; Li, Zhi-Hao; Rutherford, Shannon; Zeng, Wei-Lin; Li, Xing; Ma, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Yong-Hui

2016-05-03

Dengue cases have been reported each year for the past 25 years in Guangdong Province, China with a recorded historical peak in 2014. This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of this large outbreak in order to better understand its epidemic factors and to inform control strategies. Data for clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases in 2014 were extracted from the China Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. We analyzed the incidence and characteristics of imported and indigenous cases in terms of population, temporal and spatial distributions. A total of 45 224 dengue fever cases and 6 deaths were notified in Guangdong Province in 2014, with an incidence of 47.3 per 100 000 people. The elderly (65+ years) represented 11.7 % of total indigenous cases with the highest incidence (72.3 per 100 000). Household workers and the unemployed accounted for 23.1 % of indigenous cases. The majority of indigenous cases occurred in the 37(th) to 44(th) week of 2014 (September and October) and almost all (20 of 21) prefecture-level cities in Guangdong were affected. Compared to the non-Pearl River Delta Region, the Pearl River Delta Region accounted for the majority of dengue cases and reported cases earlier in 2014. Dengue virus serotypes 1 (DENV-1), 2 (DENV-2) and 3 (DENV-3) were detected and DENV-1 was predominant (88.4 %). Dengue fever is a serious public health problem and is emerging as a continuous threat in Guangdong Province. There is an urgent need to enhance dengue surveillance and control, especially for the high-risk populations in high-risk areas.

Symptoms associated with adverse dengue fever prognoses at the time of reporting in the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yeh, Chun-Yin; Chen, Po-Lin; Chuang, Kun-Ta; Shu, Yu-Chen; Chien, Yu-Wen; Perng, Guey Chuen; Ko, Wen-Chien; Ko, Nai-Ying

2017-12-01

Tainan experienced the most severe dengue epidemic in Taiwan in 2015. This study investigates the association between the signs and symptoms at the time of reporting with the adverse dengue prognoses. A descriptive study was conducted using secondary data from the Dengue Disease Reporting System in Tainan, Taiwan, between January 1 and December 31, 2015. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors for the adverse prognoses: ICU admissions and mortality. There were 22,777 laboratory-confirmed reported cases (mean age 45.6 ± 21.2 years), of which 3.7% were admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and 0.8% were fatal. The most common symptoms were fever (92.8%), myalgia (26.6%), and headache (22.4%). The prevalence of respiratory distress, altered consciousness, shock, bleeding, and thrombocytopenia increased with age. The multivariate analysis indicated that being in 65-89 years old age group [Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR):4.95], or the 90 years old and above age group (aOR: 9.06), and presenting with shock (aOR: 8.90) and respiratory distress (aOR: 5.31) were significantly associated with the risk of ICU admission. While old age (aOR: 1.11), respiratory distress (aOR: 9.66), altered consciousness (aOR: 7.06), and thrombocytopenia (aOR: 2.55) were significantly associated with the risk of mortality. Dengue patients older than 65 and those with severe and non-specific signs and symptoms at the time of reporting were at a higher risk of ICU admission and mortality. First-line healthcare providers need to be aware of the varied presentations between the different age groups to allow early diagnosis and in-time management, which would prevent ICU admissions and fatalities in dengue patients.

The Burden of Dengue and the Financial Cost to Colombia, 2010–2012

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Raúl Castro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Porras, Alexandra; Galera-Gelvez, Katia; Yescas, Juan Guillermo Lopez; Rueda-Gallardo, Jorge A.

2016-01-01

Data on the burden of dengue and its economic costs can help guide health policy decisions. However, little reliable information is available for Colombia. We therefore calculated the burden of the disease, expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), for two scenarios: endemic years (average number of cases in non-epidemic years 2011 and 2012) and an epidemic year (2010, when the highest number of dengue cases was reported in the study period). We also estimated the total economic cost of the disease (U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate for 2012), including indirect costs to households derived from expenses such as preventing entry of mosquitos into the home and costs to government arising from direct, indirect, and prevention and monitoring activities, as well as the direct medical and non-medical costs. In the epidemic year 2010, 1,198.73 DALYs were lost per million inhabitants versus 83.88 in endemic years. The total financial cost of the disease in Colombia from a societal perspective was US$167.8 million for 2010, US$129.9 million for 2011, and US$131.7 million for 2012. The cost of mosquito prevention borne by households was a major cost driver (accounting for 46% of the overall cost in 2010, 62% in 2011, and 64% in 2012). PMID:26928834

Dengue encephalitis

PubMed Central

Borawake, Kapil; Prayag, Parikshit; Wagh, Atul; Dole, Swati

2011-01-01

We report a case of dengue fever with features of encephalitis. The diagnosis of dengue was confirmed by the serum antibodies to dengue and the presence of a dengue antigen in the cerebrospinal fluid. This patient had characteristic magnetic resonance imaging brain findings, mainly involving the bilateral thalami, with hemorrhage. Dengue is not primarily a neurotropic virus and encephalopathy is a common finding in Dengue. Hence various other etiological possibilities were considered before concluding this as a case of Dengue encephalitis. This case explains the importance of considering the diagnosis of dengue encephalitis in appropriate situations. PMID:22013316

Dengue Fever

MedlinePlus

... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Dengue Fever KidsHealth / For Parents / Dengue Fever What's in ... Print en español Fiebre del dengue What Is Dengue Fever? Dengue (DEN-gee) fever is a tropical ...

Widespread fear of dengue transmission but poor practices of dengue prevention: A study in the slums of Delhi, India.

PubMed

Daudé, Éric; Mazumdar, Sumit; Solanki, Vandana

2017-01-01

This study has been conducted to throw light on the knowledge and practices related to dengue fever among the poor population living in Delhi's slums. A household survey was conducted in 2013 among 3,350 households. The households were stratified by a number of variables related to socio-economic status and health events such as hospitalisation. The data collection was completed through face-to-face interviews conducted with the help of 25 field investigators. About 8% of the households had at least one diagnosed dengue case. In comparison to the population surveyed, teenagers (15-19 years) and adults (30-34 years) were more affected whereas children under four years of age were underrepresented. Housewives are more affected by dengue (24%) compared to their share of the population surveyed (17%). Despite the fact that 77% of the respondents are worried about mosquitoes, only 43% of them monitor environment to avoid the presence of breeding sites. One cannot exclude the possibility that though young children under the age of four years are exposed to the virus, either their cases were asymptomatic or family members infected during this period had potentially more serious symptoms leading to hospitalisation. This result could thus be explained by budget-related health choices made by this population which do not favour small children. Educational programs should target housewives to improve their impact, as they are the ones mostly responsible for water storage and cleanliness of the house and its neighbourhood. Even with a dengue experience and potentially an acute perception of the risk and its factors, a proper management of environmental conditions is lacking. This along with the fact that word-of-mouth is the main source of information quoted should be a message for municipality health workers to give door-to-door information on how to prevent breeding sites and dengue infection.

Mathematical Model for Dengue Epidemics with Differential Susceptibility and Asymptomatic Patients Using Computer Algebra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saldarriaga Vargas, Clarita

When there are diseases affecting large populations where the social, economic and cultural diversity is significant within the same region, the biological parameters that determine the behavior of the dispersion disease analysis are affected by the selection of different individuals. Therefore and because of the variety and magnitude of the communities at risk of contracting dengue disease around all over the world, suggest defining differentiated populations with individual contributions in the results of the dispersion dengue disease analysis. In this paper those conditions were taken in account when several epidemiologic models were analyzed. Initially a stability analysis was done for a SEIR mathematical model of Dengue disease without differential susceptibility. Both free disease and endemic equilibrium states were found in terms of the basic reproduction number and were defined in the Theorem (3.1). Then a DSEIR model was solved when a new susceptible group was introduced to consider the effects of important biological parameters of non-homogeneous populations in the spreading analysis. The results were compiled in the Theorem (3.2). Finally Theorems (3.3) and (3.4) resumed the basic reproduction numbers for three and n different susceptible groups respectively, giving an idea of how differential susceptibility affects the equilibrium states. The computations were done using an algorithmic method implemented in Maple 11, a general-purpose computer algebra system.

Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

2014-06-01

Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore.

PubMed

Shi, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Kok, Suet-Yheng; Rajarethinam, Jayanthi; Liang, Shaohong; Yap, Grace; Chong, Chee-Seng; Lee, Kim-Sung; Tan, Sharon S Y; Chin, Christopher Kuan Yew; Lo, Andrew; Kong, Waiming; Ng, Lee Ching; Cook, Alex R

2016-09-01

With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore's dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore. Environ Health

Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore

PubMed Central

Shi, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Kok, Suet-Yheng; Rajarethinam, Jayanthi; Liang, Shaohong; Yap, Grace; Chong, Chee-Seng; Lee, Kim-Sung; Tan, Sharon S.Y.; Chin, Christopher Kuan Yew; Lo, Andrew; Kong, Waiming; Ng, Lee Ching; Cook, Alex R.

2015-01-01

Background: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. Objectives: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. Methods: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Results: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Conclusions: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Citation: Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak

Repurposing of prochlorperazine for use against dengue virus infection.

PubMed

Simanjuntak, Yogy; Liang, Jian-Jong; Lee, Yi-Ling; Lin, Yi-Ling

2015-02-01

The increasing prevalence of dengue virus (DENV) infection presents serious disease and economic burdens in countries where dengue epidemics are occurring. Despite the clinical importance, no DENV vaccine or anti-DENV drug is available. In this study, we found that prochlorperazine (PCZ), a dopamine D2 receptor (D2R) antagonist approved to treat nausea, vomiting, and headache in humans has potent in vitro and in vivo antiviral activity against DENV infection. PCZ can block DENV infection by targeting viral binding and viral entry through D2R- and clathrin-associated mechanisms, respectively. Administration of PCZ immediately or 6 hours after DENV infection in a Stat1-deficient mouse model completely protected against or delayed lethality. Overall, PCZ showed a previously unknown antiviral effect against DENV infection, and D2R may play a role in the DENV life cycle. Prophylactic and/or therapeutic treatment with PCZ might reduce viral replication and relieve the clinical symptoms of patients with dengue. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dengue: etiology of acute febrile illness in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, in 2011-2012.

PubMed

L'Azou, Maïna; Succo, Tiphanie; Kamagaté, Mamadou; Ouattara, Abdoulaye; Gilbernair, Elia; Adjogoua, Edgar; Luxemburger, Christine

2015-11-01

The burden of dengue in Africa is not well understood. A prospective study was conducted in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire from December 2011 to December 2012 to estimate the proportion of dengue and malaria cases among febrile patients during a period when dengue was not known to be circulating in the region, and to describe the clinical and virological characteristics of laboratory-diagnosed dengue cases. Blood samples were taken from febrile patients (body temperature ≥ 38°C) at two study sites. Patients with fever lasting more than 7 days, with fever of known origin and with jaundice were excluded. Thick blood film tests, ELISA for anti-dengue IgM and reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) were performed. A total of 812 patients were enrolled (51.7% male [48.3% female]; 46.4% aged <10 years) of whom 796 (98.0%) provided IgM ELISA and RT-PCR data, and 807 (99.4%) had thick blood film results. Three (0.4%) patients had laboratory-diagnosed dengue (one with DENV-3 serotype), none of whom were diagnosed clinically, and 234 (28.8%) had confirmed malaria. This study suggests that dengue virus circulates in Abidjan outside an epidemic and that there should be an increase in awareness of dengue as a possible diagnosis in cases of undifferentiated fever. These results stress the importance of implementing laboratory capacity to assess dengue burden in Africa. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

A dengue outbreak on a floating village at Cat Ba Island in Vietnam.

PubMed

Le Viet, Thanh; Choisy, Marc; Bryant, Juliet E; Vu Trong, Duoc; Pham Quang, Thai; Horby, Peter; Nguyen Tran, Hien; Tran Thi Kieu, Huong; Nguyen Vu, Trung; Nguyen Van, Kinh; Le Quynh, Mai; Wertheim, Heiman F L

2015-09-22

A dengue outbreak in an ecotourism destination spot in Vietnam, from September to November 2013, impacted a floating village of fishermen on the coastal island of Cat Ba. The outbreak raises questions about how tourism may impact disease spread in rural areas. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Hai Phong Preventive Medical Center (PMC), including case histories and residential location from all notified dengue cases from this outbreak. All household addresses were geo-located. Knox test, a spatio-temporal analysis that enables inference dengue clustering constrained by space and time, was performed on the geocoded locations. From the plasma available from two patients, positive for Dengue serotype 3 virus (DENV3), the Envelope (E) gene was sequenced, and their genetic relationships compared to other E sequences in the region. Of 192 dengue cases, the odds ratio of contracting dengue infections for people living in the floating villages compared to those living on the island was 4.9 (95 % CI: 3.6-6.7). The space-time analyses on 111 geocoded dengue residences found the risk of dengue infection to be the highest within 4 days and a radius of 20 m of a given case. Of the total of ten detected clusters with an excess risk greater than 2, the cluster with the highest number of cases was in the floating village area (24 patients for a total duration of 31 days). Phylogenetic analysis revealed a high homology of the two DENV3 strains (genotype III) from Cat Ba with DENV3 viruses circulating in Hanoi in the same year (99.1 %). Our study showed that dengue transmission is unlikely to be sustained on Cat Ba Island and that the 2013 epidemic likely originated through introduction of viruses from the mainland, potentially Hanoi. These findings suggest that prevention efforts should be focused on mainland rather than on the island.

Laboratory Surveillance of Dengue in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from 2007 to 2013

PubMed Central

Tumioto, Gabriela Luchiari; Gregianini, Tatiana Schäffer; Dambros, Bibiana Paula; Cestari, Beatriz Carneiro; Alves Nunes, Zenaida Marion; Veiga, Ana Beatriz Gorini

2014-01-01

Background According to official records, dengue was introduced in Brazil in the 80's; since then several epidemics have occurred. Meanwhile, in Rio Grande do Sul (RS, Southern Brazil) the first autochthonous case occurred only in 2007. Methodology and Principal Findings In this study we report laboratory surveillance of dengue cases and seasonality of positive cases, describe serotypes and characterize the epidemiological pattern of dengue in RS from 2007 to 2013. A total of 9,779 serum samples from patients with suspected dengue fever were collected and submitted to molecular and/or serological analyses for dengue virus identification and serotyping, based on viral isolation, NS1 antigen detection and qRT-PCR, or Dengue IgM capture ELISA and MAC-ELISA. The first autochthonous dengue case in RS was confirmed in 2007 (DENV-3). While in 2008 and 2009 only imported cases were registered, autochthonous infection waves have been occurring since 2010. The highest number of dengue infections occurred in 2010, with DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreaks in Northwestern RS. In 2011, another DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreak occurred in the Northwestern region; moreover, DENV-4 was detected in travelers. In 2012, DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated. DENV-2 circulation was only detected again in 2013, in high frequency (56.7%), co-circulating with DENV-4 (35%). Most infections occur in adults during summer. Differences in prevalence between genders were observed in 2007 (60% females), 2008 (60.8% males) and 2009 (77.5% males). Conclusions According to results of dengue surveillance, there was an increase in the number of dengue cases in RS and of cities infested with Aedes aegypti, possibly as a consequence of introduction of new serotypes and the difficulty of health programs to control the vector. PMID:25116186

Laboratory surveillance of dengue in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from 2007 to 2013.

PubMed

Tumioto, Gabriela Luchiari; Gregianini, Tatiana Schäffer; Dambros, Bibiana Paula; Cestari, Beatriz Carneiro; Alves Nunes, Zenaida Marion; Veiga, Ana Beatriz Gorini

2014-01-01

According to official records, dengue was introduced in Brazil in the 80's; since then several epidemics have occurred. Meanwhile, in Rio Grande do Sul (RS, Southern Brazil) the first autochthonous case occurred only in 2007. In this study we report laboratory surveillance of dengue cases and seasonality of positive cases, describe serotypes and characterize the epidemiological pattern of dengue in RS from 2007 to 2013. A total of 9,779 serum samples from patients with suspected dengue fever were collected and submitted to molecular and/or serological analyses for dengue virus identification and serotyping, based on viral isolation, NS1 antigen detection and qRT-PCR, or Dengue IgM capture ELISA and MAC-ELISA. The first autochthonous dengue case in RS was confirmed in 2007 (DENV-3). While in 2008 and 2009 only imported cases were registered, autochthonous infection waves have been occurring since 2010. The highest number of dengue infections occurred in 2010, with DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreaks in Northwestern RS. In 2011, another DENV-1 and DENV-2 outbreak occurred in the Northwestern region; moreover, DENV-4 was detected in travelers. In 2012, DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated. DENV-2 circulation was only detected again in 2013, in high frequency (56.7%), co-circulating with DENV-4 (35%). Most infections occur in adults during summer. Differences in prevalence between genders were observed in 2007 (60% females), 2008 (60.8% males) and 2009 (77.5% males). According to results of dengue surveillance, there was an increase in the number of dengue cases in RS and of cities infested with Aedes aegypti, possibly as a consequence of introduction of new serotypes and the difficulty of health programs to control the vector.

Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue infections in Timor-Leste, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Clements, Archie C A; Du, Tai; Nery, Susana Vaz

2018-01-04

Dengue remains an important public health problem in Timor-Leste, with several major epidemics occurring over the last 10 years. The aim of this study was to identify dengue clusters at high geographical resolution and to determine the association between local environmental characteristics and the distribution and transmission of the disease. Notifications of dengue cases that occurred from January 2005 to December 2013 were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Timor-Leste. The population of each suco (the third-level administrative subdivision) was obtained from the Population and Housing Census 2010. Spatial autocorrelation in dengue incidence was explored using Moran's I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate, Zero-Inflated, Poisson (ZIP) regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with Gibbs sampling. The analysis used data from 3206 cases. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal with a large peak in January. Patients ≥ 14 years were found to be 74% [95% credible interval (CrI): 72-76%] less likely to be infected than those < 14 years, and females were 12% (95% CrI: 4-21%) more likely to suffer from dengue as compared to males. Dengue incidence increased by 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.6-0.8%) for a 1 °C increase in mean temperature; and 47% (95% CrI: 29-59%) for a 1 mm increase in precipitation. There was no significant residual spatial clustering after accounting for climate and demographic variables. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal and spatially clustered, with positive associations with temperature, precipitation and demographic factors. These factors explained the observed spatial heterogeneity of infection.

Coinfection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and dengue virus in fatal cases.

PubMed

Perdigão, Anne Carolinne Bezerra; Ramalho, Izabel Letícia Cavalcante; Guedes, Maria Izabel Florindo; Braga, Deborah Nunes Melo; Cavalcanti, Luciano Pamplona Góes; Melo, Maria Elisabeth Lisboa de; Araújo, Rafael Montenegro de Carvalho; Lima, Elza Gadelha; Silva, Luciene Alexandre Bié da; Araújo, Lia de Carvalho; Araújo, Fernanda Montenegro de Carvalho

2016-09-01

We report on four patients with fatal influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and dengue virus coinfections. Clinical, necropsy and histopathologic findings presented in all cases were characteristic of influenza-dengue coinfections, and all were laboratory-confirmed for both infections. The possibility of influenza and dengue coinfection should be considered in locations where these two viruses' epidemic periods coincide to avoid fatal outcomes. Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection caused by one of the four dengue viruses (DENV-1 to 4). Each of these viruses is capable of causing nonspecific febrile illnesses, classic dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever (Gubler 1998). As a result, dengue is often difficult to diagnose clinically, especially because peak dengue season often coincides with that of other common febrile illnesses in tropical regions (Chacon et al. 2015). In April 2009, a new virus, influenza A/H1N1/pandemic (FluA/H1N1/09pdm), caused a severe outbreak in Mexico. The virus quickly spread throughout the world, and in June 2009, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic (WHO 2010). In Brazil, the first laboratory confirmed case of FluA/H1N1/09pdm was in July 2009 (Pires Neto et al. 2013). The state of Ceará, in Northeast Brazil, is a dengue endemic area. In this state, the virus influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 has circulated since 2009, and through the first half of 2012, 11 deaths caused by the virus were confirmed (Pires Neto et al. 2013). The influenza and dengue seasons in Ceará overlap, which led to diagnostic difficulties. We report four cases of laboratory-confirmed coinfection of deadly influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with DENV, which occurred during the dengue and influenza season in 2012 and 2013 in Ceará.

Coinfection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and dengue virus in fatal cases

PubMed Central

Perdigão, Anne Carolinne Bezerra; Ramalho, Izabel Letícia Cavalcante; Guedes, Maria Izabel Florindo; Braga, Deborah Nunes Melo; Cavalcanti, Luciano Pamplona Góes; de Melo, Maria Elisabeth Lisboa; Araújo, Rafael Montenegro de Carvalho; Lima, Elza Gadelha; da Silva, Luciene Alexandre Bié; Araújo, Lia de Carvalho; Araújo, Fernanda Montenegro de Carvalho

2016-01-01

Abstract We report on four patients with fatal influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and dengue virus coinfections. Clinical, necropsy and histopathologic findings presented in all cases were characteristic of influenza-dengue coinfections, and all were laboratory-confirmed for both infections. The possibility of influenza and dengue coinfection should be considered in locations where these two viruses’ epidemic periods coincide to avoid fatal outcomes. Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection caused by one of the four dengue viruses (DENV-1 to 4). Each of these viruses is capable of causing nonspecific febrile illnesses, classic dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever (Gubler 1998). As a result, dengue is often difficult to diagnose clinically, especially because peak dengue season often coincides with that of other common febrile illnesses in tropical regions (Chacon et al. 2015). In April 2009, a new virus, influenza A/H1N1/pandemic (FluA/H1N1/09pdm), caused a severe outbreak in Mexico. The virus quickly spread throughout the world, and in June 2009, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic (WHO 2010). In Brazil, the first laboratory confirmed case of FluA/H1N1/09pdm was in July 2009 (Pires Neto et al. 2013). The state of Ceará, in Northeast Brazil, is a dengue endemic area. In this state, the virus influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 has circulated since 2009, and through the first half of 2012, 11 deaths caused by the virus were confirmed (Pires Neto et al. 2013). The influenza and dengue seasons in Ceará overlap, which led to diagnostic difficulties. We report four cases of laboratory-confirmed coinfection of deadly influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with DENV, which occurred during the dengue and influenza season in 2012 and 2013 in Ceará. PMID:27598244

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

PubMed

Muñoz, Ángel G; Thomson, Madeleine C; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Chourio, Xandre; Nájera, Patricia; Moran, Zelda; Yang, Xiaosong

2017-01-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes -borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus . We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower-but still of potential use to decision-makers-for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

An optimal control strategies using vaccination and fogging in dengue fever transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitria, Irma; Winarni, Pancahayani, Sigit; Subchan

2017-08-01

This paper discussed regarding a model and an optimal control problem of dengue fever transmission. We classified the model as human and vector (mosquito) population classes. For the human population, there are three subclasses, such as susceptible, infected, and resistant classes. Then, for the vector population, we divided it into wiggler, susceptible, and infected vector classes. Thus, the model consists of six dynamic equations. To minimize the number of dengue fever cases, we designed two optimal control variables in the model, the giving of fogging and vaccination. The objective function of this optimal control problem is to minimize the number of infected human population, the number of vector, and the cost of the controlling efforts. By giving the fogging optimally, the number of vector can be minimized. In this case, we considered the giving of vaccination as a control variable because it is one of the efforts that are being developed to reduce the spreading of dengue fever. We used Pontryagin Minimum Principle to solve the optimal control problem. Furthermore, the numerical simulation results are given to show the effect of the optimal control strategies in order to minimize the epidemic of dengue fever.

Human dengue virus serotype 2 neutralizing antibodies target two distinct quaternary epitopes

PubMed Central

Gallichotte, Emily N.; Baric, Thomas J.; Widman, Douglas G.; Whitehead, Steve; Baric, Ralph S.; de Silva, Aravinda M.

2018-01-01

Dengue virus (DENV) infection causes dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. It is estimated that a third of the world’s population is at risk for infection, with an estimated 390 million infections annually. Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV2) causes severe epidemics, and the leading tetravalent dengue vaccine has lower efficacy against DENV2 compared to the other 3 serotypes. In natural DENV2 infections, strongly neutralizing type-specific antibodies provide protection against subsequent DENV2 infection. While the epitopes of some human DENV2 type-specific antibodies have been mapped, it is not known if these are representative of the polyclonal antibody response. Using structure-guided immunogen design and reverse genetics, we generated a panel of recombinant viruses containing amino acid alterations and epitope transplants between different serotypes. Using this panel of recombinant viruses in binding, competition, and neutralization assays, we have finely mapped the epitopes of three human DENV2 type-specific monoclonal antibodies, finding shared and distinct epitope regions. Additionally, we used these recombinant viruses and polyclonal sera to dissect the epitope-specific responses following primary DENV2 natural infection and monovalent vaccination. Our results demonstrate that antibodies raised following DENV2 infection or vaccination circulate as separate populations that neutralize by occupying domain III and domain I quaternary epitopes. The fraction of neutralizing antibodies directed to different epitopes differs between individuals. The identification of these epitopes could potentially be harnessed to evaluate epitope-specific antibody responses as correlates of protective immunity, potentially improving vaccine design. PMID:29481552

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

Dengue

MedlinePlus

Dengue is an infection caused by a virus. You can get it if an infected mosquito bites you. Dengue does not spread from person to person. It ... the world. Outbreaks occur in the rainy season. Dengue is rare in the United States. Symptoms include ...

Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of emergent dengue virus in Yunnan Province near the China-Myanmar-Laos border, 2013-2015.

PubMed

Hu, Ting-Song; Zhang, Hai-Lin; Feng, Yun; Fan, Jian-Hua; Tang, Tian; Liu, Yong-Hua; Zhang, Liu; Yin, Xiao-Xiong; Chen, Gang; Li, Hua-Chang; Zu, Jin; Li, Hong-Bin; Li, Yuan-Yuan; Yu, Jing; Zhang, Fu-Qiang; Fan, Quan-Shui

2017-05-08

Yunnan Province is located in southwestern China and neighbors the Southeast Asian countries, all of which are dengue-endemic areas. In 2000-2013, sporadic imported cases of dengue fever (DF) were reported almost annually in Yunnan Province. During 2013-2015, we confirmed that a large-scale indigenous DF outbreak emerged in cities of Yunnan Province near the China-Myanmar-Laos border. Epidemiological characteristics of DF in Yunnan Province during 2013-2015 were evaluated by retrospective analysis. A total of 232 dengue virus (DENV)-positive sera were randomly collected for sequence analysis of the capsid/premembrane region of DENV from patients with DF in Yunnan Province. The envelope gene of DENV isolates was also amplified and sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using the neighbor-joining method with the Tajima-Nei model. Phylogenetically, all DENV-positive samples could be classified into DENV-1 genotype I and DENV-2 Asian I genotype during 2013-2015 and DENV-4 genotype I in 2015 from Ruili City; and DENV-3 genotype II in 2013 and DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype in 2015 from Xishuangbanna Prefecture. Our results indicated that imported DF from patients from Laos and Myanmar was the primary cause of the DF epidemic in Yunnan Province. Additionally, DENV strains of all four serotypes were identified in indigenous cases in Yunnan Province during the same time period, while the dengue epidemic pattern observed in southwestern Yunnan showed characteristics of a hypoendemic nature: circulation of DENV-1 and DENV-2 over consecutive years.

Dengue disease surveillance: an updated systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Runge-Ranzinger, S; McCall, P J; Kroeger, A; Horstick, O

2014-01-01

Objectives To review the evidence for the application of tools for dengue outbreak prediction/detection and trend monitoring in passive and active disease surveillance systems in order to develop recommendations for endemic countries and identify important research needs. Methods This systematic literature review followed the protocol of a review from 2008, extending the systematic search from January 2007 to February 2013 on PubMed, EMBASE, CDSR, WHOLIS and Lilacs. Data reporting followed the PRISMA statement. The eligibility criteria comprised (i) population at risk of dengue, (ii) dengue disease surveillance, (iii) outcome of surveillance described and (iv) empirical data evaluated. The analysis classified studies based on the purpose of the surveillance programme. The main limitation of the review was expected publication bias. Results A total of 1116 papers were identified of which 36 articles were included in the review. Four cohort-based prospective studies calculated expansion factors demonstrating remarkable levels of underreporting in the surveillance systems. Several studies demonstrated that enhancement methods such as laboratory support, sentinel-based reporting and staff motivation contributed to improvements in dengue reporting. Additional improvements for passive surveillance systems are possible by incorporating simple data forms/entry/electronic-based reporting; defining clear system objectives; performing data analysis at the lowest possible level (e.g. district); seeking regular data feedback. Six studies showed that serotype changes were positively correlated with the number of reported cases or with dengue incidence, with lag times of up to 6 months. Three studies found that data on internet searches and event-based surveillance correlated well with the epidemic curve derived from surveillance data. Conclusions Passive surveillance providing the baseline for outbreak alert should be strengthened and appropriate threshold levels for outbreak

Mosquitoes infected with dengue viruses in Brazil

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Dengue epidemics have been reported in Brazil since 1985. The scenery has worsened in the last decade because several serotypes are circulating and producing a hyper-endemic situation, with an increase of DHF/DSS cases as well as the number of fatalities. Herein, we report dengue virus surveillance in mosquitoes using a Flavivirus genus-specific RT-Hemi-Nested-PCR assay. The mosquitoes (Culicidae, n = 1700) collected in the Northeast, Southeast and South of Brazil, between 1999 and 2005, were grouped into 154 pools. Putative genomes of DENV-1, -2 and -3 were detected in 6 mosquito pools (3.8%). One amplicon of putative DENV-1 was detected in a pool of Haemagogus leucocelaenus suggesting that this virus could be involved in a sylvatic cycle. DENV-3 was found infecting 3 pools of larvae of Aedes albopictus and the nucleotide sequence of one of these viruses was identified as DENV-3 of genotype III, phylogenetically related to other DENV-3 isolated in Brazil. This is the first report of a nucleotide sequence of DENV-3 from larvae of Aedes albopictus. PMID:20624314

High prevalence of clinically unsuspected dengue disease among children in Ribeirao Preto city, Brazil.

PubMed

Poloni, Telma Regina; Dornas, Fabio Pio; Dos Santos, Nilton Nascimento; Soares, Adriana Moreira; Amarilla, Alberto Anastacio; Alfonso, Helda Liz; Trigueiro, Sabrina; Lavrador, Marco Aurélio Sicchiroli; Yamamoto, Aparecida Yulie; Aquino, Victor Hugo

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the characteristics of Dengue virus (DENV)-infected children and the accuracy of dengue diagnosis based on clinical presentations. The inclusion criteria were children ≥1-year-old presenting febrile illness with 1-7 days of onset. Children (n = 110) aged 2-15 years were included in this study. DENV infection was confirmed with virological tests using serum, salvia, and/or urine samples. The attending pediatricians classified 56/110 (50.91%) of the children as suspected dengue cases. The DENV infection was confirmed by specific laboratory tests in 52/56 (92.9%) of the suspected dengue cases but also in 44/54 (81.5%) of the unsuspected dengue cases; total of 96/110 (87.27%) confirmed dengue cases. The clinical diagnosis gave an overall sensitivity of 54.2% (52/96) and a specificity of 71.4% (10/14). The positive predictive value of the clinical diagnosis was 92.8% and negative predictive value was 18.5%. After the third day of onset of symptoms, the DENV genome detection rate was similar in serum and saliva samples, suggesting that saliva samples represent an alternative to blood samples for early dengue diagnosis. Vaccination against Yellow fever virus did not influence the antibody response against DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-3, which circulated during the study period. Although the signs and symptoms were compatible with dengue, the attending pediatricians did not suspect the disease in several children. Therefore, the inclusion of virological tests for early diagnosis in the protocols for dengue surveillance would help in the implementation of prompt treatment of patients and epidemic containment strategies. J. Med. Virol. 88:1711-1719, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The epidemiological characteristics and genetic diversity of dengue virus during the third largest historical outbreak of dengue in Guangdong, China, in 2014.

PubMed

Sun, Jiufeng; Wu, De; Zhou, Huiqiong; Zhang, Huan; Guan, Dawei; He, Xiang; Cai, Songwu; Ke, Changwen; Lin, Jinyan

2016-01-01

The third largest historical outbreak of dengue occurred during July to December 2014, in 20 of 21 cities of Guangdong, China. The epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, expansion and phylogeny of the DENV isolates involved in this outbreak were investigated. A combination analyses of epidemiological characteristics and genetic diversity of dengue virus was performed in this study. In total, 45,236 cases and 6 fatalities were reported. Unemployed individuals, retirees and retailers were the most affected populations. A total of 6024 cases were verified to have DENV infections by nucleic acid detection, of which 5947, 74 and 3 were confirmed to have DENV-1, -2, and -3 infections, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses of DENV-1 isolates were assigned into three genotypes (I, IV, and V). Genotype V was the predominant genotype that likely originated from Singapore. The DENV-2 isolates were assigned to the Cosmopolitan and Asian I genotypes. A unique DENV-3 isolate (genotype III) shared high similarity with isolates obtained from Guangdong in 2013. A combination analyses demonstrated the multiple geographical origins of this outbreak, and highlight the importance of early detection, the case management and vector surveillance for preventing further dengue epidemics in Guangdong. Copyright © 2015 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

PubMed

Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

2012-08-01

Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many factors have been associated with circulation of the dengue fever virus and vector, although the dynamics of transmission are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work is to estimate the spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in an area of continuous dengue occurrence. Methods This is a spatial population-based case-control study that analyzed 538 cases and 727 controls in one district of the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2006-2007, considering socio-demographic, ecological, case severity, and household infestation variables. Information was collected by in-home interviews and inspection of living conditions in and around the homes studied. Cases were classified as mild or severe according to clinical data, and they were compared with controls through a multinomial logistic model. A generalized additive model was used in order to include space in a non-parametric fashion with cubic smoothing splines. Results Variables associated with increased incidence of all dengue cases in the multiple binomial regression model were: higher larval density (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.7)), reports of mosquito bites during the day (OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.4-2.4)), the practice of water storage at home (OR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4, 4.3)), low frequency of garbage collection (OR = 2.6 (95%CI: 1.6-4.5)) and lack of basic sanitation (OR = 2.9 (95%CI: 1.8-4.9)). Staying at home during the day was protective against the disease (OR = 0.5 (95%CI: 0.3-0.6)). When cases were analyzed by categories (mild and severe) in the multinomial model, age and number of breeding sites more than 10 were significant only for the occurrence of severe cases (OR = 0.97, (95%CI: 0.96-0.99) and OR = 2.1 (95%CI: 1.2-3.5), respectively. Spatial distribution of risks of mild and severe dengue fever differed from each other in the 2006/2007 epidemic, in the study area. Conclusions Age and presence of more than 10 breeding sites were significant only for severe

Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico

PubMed Central

Pearson, Carl A. B.; Chao, Dennis L.; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Recchia, Gabriel L.; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Longini, Ira M.

2016-01-01

Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there

Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico.

PubMed

Hladish, Thomas J; Pearson, Carl A B; Chao, Dennis L; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Recchia, Gabriel L; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Longini, Ira M

2016-05-01

Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there

Increasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia.

PubMed

Tian, Huaiyu; Sun, Zhe; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues; Yang, Jing; Cazelles, Bernard; Huang, Shanqian; Xu, Bo; Yang, Qiqi; Pybus, Oliver G; Xu, Bing

2017-08-01

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014-2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1-3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.

Increasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia

PubMed Central

Sun, Zhe; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues; Yang, Jing; Cazelles, Bernard; Huang, Shanqian; Xu, Bo; Yang, Qiqi; Pybus, Oliver G.; Xu, Bing

2017-01-01

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014–2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1–3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation. PMID:28771468

Dengue in Araraquara, state of São Paulo: epidemiology, climate and Aedes aegypti infestation

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Aline Chimello; Chiaravalloti, Francisco; Mondini, Adriano

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the epidemiology of dengue in a medium-sized city in the state of São Paulo. METHODS Data, such as circulating serotypes, severe cases and deaths, age group, sex, among others, were obtained on reported and confirmed dengue cases in Araraquara, state of São Paulo, between 1991 and 2015. Climatic and infestation data were also analyzed. These variables were evaluated descriptively, using statistical measures such as frequencies, averages, minimum and maximum. Dengue incidence rates were calculated according to month, year, age and sex, and time series of dengue cases, infestation, and climatic variables. RESULTS Approximately 16,500 cases of dengue fever were reported between 1991 and 2015. The highest number of reports was recorded in 2015 (7,811 cases). In general, the age group with the highest number of reports is between 20 and 59 years old. The highest incidences, generally between March and May, occurred after the increase in rainfall and infestation in January. CONCLUSIONS Increased levels of infestation due to rainfall are reflected in incidence rates of the disease. It is fundamental to know the epidemiology of dengue in medium-sized cities. Such information can be extended to diseases such as Zika and Chikungunya, which are transmitted by the same vector and were reported in the city. The intensification of surveillance efforts in periods before epidemics could be a strategy to be considered to control the viral spread. PMID:29489994

Dengue in Araraquara, state of São Paulo: epidemiology, climate and Aedes aegypti infestation.

PubMed

Ferreira, Aline Chimello; Chiaravalloti Neto, Francisco; Mondini, Adriano

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To describe the epidemiology of dengue in a medium-sized city in the state of São Paulo. METHODS Data, such as circulating serotypes, severe cases and deaths, age group, sex, among others, were obtained on reported and confirmed dengue cases in Araraquara, state of São Paulo, between 1991 and 2015. Climatic and infestation data were also analyzed. These variables were evaluated descriptively, using statistical measures such as frequencies, averages, minimum and maximum. Dengue incidence rates were calculated according to month, year, age and sex, and time series of dengue cases, infestation, and climatic variables. RESULTS Approximately 16,500 cases of dengue fever were reported between 1991 and 2015. The highest number of reports was recorded in 2015 (7,811 cases). In general, the age group with the highest number of reports is between 20 and 59 years old. The highest incidences, generally between March and May, occurred after the increase in rainfall and infestation in January. CONCLUSIONS Increased levels of infestation due to rainfall are reflected in incidence rates of the disease. It is fundamental to know the epidemiology of dengue in medium-sized cities. Such information can be extended to diseases such as Zika and Chikungunya, which are transmitted by the same vector and were reported in the city. The intensification of surveillance efforts in periods before epidemics could be a strategy to be considered to control the viral spread.

Clinico-laboratory spectrum of dengue viral infection and risk factors associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Mallhi, Tauqeer Hussain; Khan, Amer Hayat; Adnan, Azreen Syazril; Sarriff, Azmi; Khan, Yusra Habib; Jummaat, Fauziah

2015-09-30

The incidence of dengue is rising steadily in Malaysia since the first major outbreak in 1973. Despite aggressive measures taken by the relevant authorities, Malaysia is still facing worsening dengue crisis over the past few years. There is an urgent need to evaluate dengue cases for better understanding of clinic-laboratory spectrum in order to combat this disease. A retrospective analysis of dengue patients admitted to a tertiary care teaching hospital during the period of six years (2008 - 2013) was performed. Patient's demographics, clinical and laboratory findings were recorded via structured data collection form. Patients were categorized into dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Appropriate statistical methods were used to compare these two groups in order to determine difference in clinico-laboratory characteristics and to identify independent risk factors of DHF. A total 667 dengue patients (30.69 ± 16.13 years; Male: 56.7 %) were reviewed. Typical manifestations of dengue like fever, myalgia, arthralgia, headache, vomiting, abdominal pain and skin rash were observed in more than 40 % patients. DHF was observed in 79 (11.8 %) cases. Skin rash, dehydration, shortness of breath, pleural effusion and thick gall bladder were more significantly (P < 0.05) associated with DHF than DF. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated presence of age > 40 years (OR: 4.1, P < 0.001), secondary infection (OR: 2.7, P = 0.042), diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.8, P = 0.041), lethargy (OR: 3.1, P = 0.005), thick gallbladder (OR: 1.7, P = 0.029) and delayed hospitalization (OR: 2.3, P = 0.037) as independent predictors of DHF. Overall mortality was 1.2 % in our study. Current study demonstrated that DF and DHF present significantly different clinico-laboratory profile. Older age, secondary infection, diabetes mellitus, lethargy, thick gallbladder and delayed hospitalization significantly predict DHF. Prior knowledge of expected

Metabolomics-Based Discovery of Small Molecule Biomarkers in Serum Associated with Dengue Virus Infections and Disease Outcomes

PubMed Central

Voge, Natalia V.; Perera, Rushika; Mahapatra, Sebabrata; Gresh, Lionel; Balmaseda, Angel; Loroño-Pino, María A.; Hopf-Jannasch, Amber S.; Belisle, John T.; Harris, Eva; Blair, Carol D.; Beaty, Barry J.

2016-01-01

Background Epidemic dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) are overwhelming public health capacity for diagnosis and clinical care of dengue patients throughout the tropical and subtropical world. The ability to predict severe dengue disease outcomes (DHF/DSS) using acute phase clinical specimens would be of enormous value to physicians and health care workers for appropriate triaging of patients for clinical management. Advances in the field of metabolomics and analytic software provide new opportunities to identify host small molecule biomarkers (SMBs) in acute phase clinical specimens that differentiate dengue disease outcomes. Methodology/Principal Findings Exploratory metabolomic studies were conducted to characterize the serum metabolome of patients who experienced different dengue disease outcomes. Serum samples from dengue patients from Nicaragua and Mexico were retrospectively obtained, and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC)-mass spectrometry (MS) identified small molecule metabolites that were associated with and statistically differentiated DHF/DSS, DF, and non-dengue (ND) diagnosis groups. In the Nicaraguan samples, 191 metabolites differentiated DF from ND outcomes and 83 differentiated DHF/DSS and DF outcomes. In the Mexican samples, 306 metabolites differentiated DF from ND and 37 differentiated DHF/DSS and DF outcomes. The structural identities of 13 metabolites were confirmed using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). Metabolomic analysis of serum samples from patients diagnosed as DF who progressed to DHF/DSS identified 65 metabolites that predicted dengue disease outcomes. Differential perturbation of the serum metabolome was demonstrated following infection with different DENV serotypes and following primary and secondary DENV infections. Conclusions/Significance These results provide proof-of-concept that a metabolomics approach can be used to identify metabolites or SMBs in serum

Costs of dengue in three French territories of the Americas: an analysis of the hospital medical information system (PMSI) database.

PubMed

Uhart, M; Blein, C; L'Azou, M; Thomas, L; Durand, L

2016-05-01

Dengue is a major emerging public health concern in tropical and subtropical countries. Severe dengue can lead to hospitalisation and death. This study was performed to assess the economic burden of hospitalisations for dengue from 2007 to 2011 in three French territories of the Americas where dengue is endemic (French Guiana, Martinique and Guadeloupe). Data on dengue-associated hospitalisations were extracted from the French national hospital administrative database, Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information (PMSI). The numbers of stays and the corresponding number of hospitalised patients were determined using disease-specific ICD-10 codes. Associated hospital costs were estimated from the payer perspective, using French official tariffs. Overall, 4183 patients (mean age 32 years; 51 % male) were hospitalised for dengue, corresponding to 4574 hospital stays. In nearly all hospital stays (98 %; 4471), the illness was medically managed and the mean length of stay was 4.3 days. The mean cost per stay was €2522, corresponding to a total hospital cost of €11.5 million over the 5 years assessed. The majority of hospitalisations (80 % of patients) and associated costs (75 % of total hospital costs) were incurred during two epidemics. Severe dengue is associated with significant hospital costs that escalate during outbreaks.

Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

Effect of pretreatment with chromium picolinate on haematological parameters during dengue virus infection in mice.

PubMed

Shrivastava, Richa; Nagar, R; Ravishankar, G A; Upreti, R K; Chaturvedi, U C

2007-11-01

Dengue virus (DV) has caused severe epidemics of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and is endemic all over India. We have earlier reported that exposure of mice to hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] compounds increased the severity of dengue virus infection. Trivalent chromium picolinate (CrP) is used worldwide as micronutrient and nutritional supplement. The present study was therefore, carried out to investigate the effects of CrP on various haematological parameters during DV infection of mice. The Swiss Albino smice were inoculated with dengue virus (1000 LD50, intracerebrally) and fed with chromium picolinate (CrP) in drinking water (100 and 250 mg/l) for 24 wk. Peripheral blood leucocytes and other haematological parameters, and spleens were studied on days 4 and 8 after virus inoculations and the findings were compared with those given only CrP and the normal control age matched mice. CrP in drinking water for 24 wk had no significant effects on peripheral blood cells of mice. On the other hand, there was significant decrease in different haematological parameters following inoculation of normal mice with DV. In CrP fed mice the effects of DV infection were abolished on most of the haematological parameters. The findings of present study showed that the adverse effects of DV infection, specially on platelets and leucocytes, were abrogated by pretreatment of mice with CrP. The therapeutic utility of CrP in viral infections including dengue needs to be studied in depth.

The Epidemiology of Dengue in the Americas Over the Last Three Decades: A Worrisome Reality

PubMed Central

San Martín, José Luis; Brathwaite, Olivia; Zambrano, Betzana; Solórzano, José Orlando; Bouckenooghe, Alain; Dayan, Gustavo H.; Guzmán, María G.

2010-01-01

We have reported the epidemic patterns of dengue disease in the Region of the Americas from 1980 through 2007. Dengue cases reported to the Pan American Health Organization were analyzed from three periods: 1980–1989 (80s), 1990–1999 (90s), and 2000–2007 (2000–7). Age distribution data were examined from Brazil, Venezuela, Honduras, and Mexico. Cases increased over time: 1,033,417 (80s) to 2,725,405 (90s) to 4,759,007 (2000–7). The highest concentrations were reported in the Hispanic Caribbean (39.1%) in the 80s shifting to the Southern Cone in the 90s (55%) and 2000–7 (62.9%). From 1980 through 1987, 242 deaths were reported compared with 1,391 during 2000–7. The most frequently isolated serotypes were DENV-1 and DENV-2 (90s) and DENV-2 and DENV-3 (2000–7). The highest incidence was observed among adolescents and young adults; dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence was highest among infants in Venezuela. Increasing dengue morbidity/mortality was observed in the Americas in recent decades. PMID:20065008

Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine: A Review in the Prevention of Dengue Disease.

PubMed

Scott, Lesley J

2016-09-01

Tetravalent, live-attenuated, dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia(®); CYD-TDV) is the first vaccine approved for the prevention of dengue disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1-4 in individuals aged 9-45 or 9-60 years living in high dengue endemic areas. This narrative review discusses the immunogenicity, protective efficacy, reactogenicity and safety of CYD-TDV in the prevention of dengue disease. In Latin American and Asian phase 3 trials in children and adolescents (n > 30,000), the recommended three-dose CYD-TDV regimen was efficacious in preventing virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) during the period from 28 days after the last dose (month 13) to month 25, meeting the primary endpoint criteria. Protective efficacy against VCD in the respective individual trials was 60.8 and 56.5 % (primary analysis). During the 25-month active surveillance phase, CYD-TDV also provided protective efficacy against VCD, severe dengue, any grade of dengue haemorrhagic fever and VCD-related hospitalization in children aged 9 years and older. CYD-TDV was generally well tolerated, with no safety concerns identified after up to 4 years' follow-up (i.e. from post dose 1) in ongoing long-term studies. Based on evidence from the dengue clinical trial program, the WHO SAGE recommended that countries with high dengue endemicity consider introducing CYD-TDV as part of an integrated disease prevention strategy to lower disease burden. Pharmacoeconomic considerations will be pivotal to implementing dengue vaccination prevention strategies in these countries. The availability of a dengue vaccine is considered essential if the 2012 WHO global strategy targets for reducing the burden of dengue disease by 2020 are to be attained. Hence, CYD-TDV represents a major advance for the prevention of dengue disease in high dengue endemic regions.

Mathematical model for Dengue with three states of infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincapie, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for dengue with three states of infection is proposed and analyzed. The model consists in a system of differential equations. The three states of infection are respectively asymptomatic, partially asymptomatic and fully asymptomatic. The model is analyzed using computer algebra software, specifically Maple, and the corresponding basic reproductive number and the epidemic threshold are computed. The resulting basic reproductive number is an algebraic synthesis of all epidemic parameters and it makes clear the possible control measures. The microscopic structure of the epidemic parameters is established using the quantum theory of the interactions between the atoms and radiation. In such approximation, the human individual is represented by an atom and the mosquitoes are represented by radiation. The force of infection from the mosquitoes to the humans is considered as the transition probability from the fundamental state of atom to excited states. The combination of computer algebra software and quantum theory provides a very complete formula for the basic reproductive number and the possible control measures tending to stop the propagation of the disease. It is claimed that such result may be important in military medicine and the proposed method can be applied to other vector-borne diseases.

Cross-Sectional Survey on the Dengue Knowledge, Attitudes and Preventive Practices Among Students and Staff of a Public University in Malaysia.

PubMed

Lugova, H; Wallis, S

2017-04-01

Behavioural impact programmes are especially effective for dengue control and prevention. Universities are key settings for health promotion, so understanding factors that influence the practice of dengue prevention within a university community becomes important. This study aimed to examine the factors affecting dengue knowledge, attitude and preventive practices amongst students and staff of a public university. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A total of 372 students and staff of the NDUM were recruited by stratified sampling method. Data were collected via self-administered pre-tested structured questionnaires covering socio-demography and dengue KAP. Data were analysed descriptively. For bivariate analysis, Chi square test was applied. To explore the factors independently associated with the practice of dengue prevention, a logistic regression model was introduced. Overall, the participants had moderate dengue-related knowledge, good attitudes and good preventive practices. The majority had misconceptions about mosquito biting habits (83.8 %), seasonality of dengue epidemics (73.2 %), and mosquito breeding sites (70.3 %). Staff were more likely to have good dengue-related knowledge (p < 0.001) and attitudes (p = 0.008) than students. There was statistically significant positive association between the level of dengue knowledge and monthly average household income (p = 0.008), age (p < 0.001) and education (p < 0.001). Having good attitudes towards dengue was associated with being a non-Malay (p = 0.034), having higher monthly average household income (p = 0.047) and tertiary education (p < 0.001). In regression analysis, only dengue knowledge and dengue attitudes were significantly and positively associated with practice of dengue prevention. Dengue preventive strategies amongst university students and staff should focus on maintaining good dengue-related preventive practices

Diversity of dengue virus-3 genotype III in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Hashem, Anwar M; Sohrab, Sayed S; El-Kafrawy, Sherif A; Abd-Alla, Adly M M; El-Ela, Saeid Abo; Abujamel, Turki S; Hassan, Ahmed M; Farraj, Suha A; Othman, Noura A; Charrel, Remi N; Azhar, Esam I

2018-07-01

Dengue is the most important arboviral disease in tropical and subtropical countries. Dispersal of the vector and an increase in migratory flow between countries have led to large epidemics and severe clinical outcomes. Over the past 20 years, dengue epidemics have become more wide-spread and frequent. Previous studies have shown that dengue is endemic in Jeddah, Makkah and Al-Madinah in western Saudi Arabia as well as in Jazan region in the southern part of the country. The four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV) have been reported from western Saudi Arabia. It has been suggested that pilgrims could play a significant and unique role in DENV-1 and DENV-2 introduction into Saudi Arabia, especially in the cities of Jeddah, Makkah and Al-Madinah during Hajj and Umrah seasons. However, only limited data on DENV-3 in Saudi Arabia are available. All available DENV-3 sequences published and unpublished from Saudi Arabia and other countries were retrieved from Genbank and gene sequence repository and phylogenetically analyzed to examine the diversity of DENV-3 into the city of Jeddah. Based on the analysis of the envelope gene and non-structural 1 (E/NS1) junction sequences, we show that there were at least four independent introductions of DENV-3, all from genotype III into Jeddah. The first introduction was most probably before 1997 as Saudi virus isolates from 1997 formed a cluster without any close relationship to other globally circulating isolates, suggesting their local circulation from previous introduction events. Two introductions were most probably in 2004 with isolates closely-related to isolates from Africa and India (Asia), in addition to another introduction in 2014 with isolates clustering with those from Singapore (Asia). Our data shows that only genotype III isolates of DENV-3 are circulating in Jeddah and highlights the potential role of pilgrims in DENV-3 importation into western Saudi Arabia and subsequent exportation to their home countries during Hajj

Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil

PubMed Central

van Panhuis, Willem G.; Hyun, Sangwon; Blaney, Kayleigh; Marques, Ernesto T. A.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Siqueira, João Bosco; Tibshirani, Ryan; da Silva, Jarbas B.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2014-01-01

Abstract Background This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country. Methodology/Principal Findings We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001–2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th–100th percentile: 5–334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30–77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively). Conclusion/Significance The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events. PMID:25079960

Plant-expressed Fc-fusion protein tetravalent dengue vaccine with inherent adjuvant properties.

PubMed

Kim, Mi Young; Copland, Alastair; Nayak, Kaustuv; Chandele, Anmol; Ahmed, Muhammad S; Zhang, Qibo; Diogo, Gil R; Paul, Matthew J; Hofmann, Sven; Yang, Moon-Sik; Jang, Yong-Suk; Ma, Julian K-C; Reljic, Rajko

2017-12-09

Dengue is a major global disease requiring improved treatment and prevention strategies. The recently licensed Sanofi Pasteur Dengvaxia vaccine does not protect children under the age of nine, and additional vaccine strategies are thus needed to halt this expanding global epidemic. Here, we employed a molecular engineering approach and plant expression to produce a humanized and highly immunogenic poly-immunoglobulin G scaffold (PIGS) fused to the consensus dengue envelope protein III domain (cEDIII). The immunogenicity of this IgG Fc receptor-targeted vaccine candidate was demonstrated in transgenic mice expressing human FcγRI/CD64, by induction of neutralizing antibodies and evidence of cell-mediated immunity. Furthermore, these molecules were able to prime immune cells from human adenoid/tonsillar tissue ex vivo as evidenced by antigen-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T-cell proliferation, IFN-γ and antibody production. The purified polymeric fraction of dengue PIGS (D-PIGS) induced stronger immune activation than the monomeric form, suggesting a more efficient interaction with the low-affinity Fcγ receptors on antigen-presenting cells. These results show that the plant-expressed D-PIGS have the potential for translation towards a safe and easily scalable single antigen-based tetravalent dengue vaccine. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prolonged Co-circulation of Two Distinct Dengue Virus Type 3 Lineages in the Hyperendemic Area of Medellín, Colombia

PubMed Central

Ospina, Marta C.; Diaz, Francisco J.; Osorio, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

During the past two decades, Dengue virus-3 (DENV-3) has re-emerged in the Western Hemisphere causing significant epidemics of dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). In an effort to understand the molecular evolution of DENV-3 and their relationships to other DENV-3 circulating in the western hemisphere, we conducted a phylogenetic study on DENV-3 isolates made between 2002 and 2007 in the metropolitan area of Medellín, Colombia. An unexpected co-circulation of two different variants of DENV-3 subtype III during at least 5 years in Medellín was found. In addition, a more complete analysis of DENV-3 viruses isolated in other South American regions revealed the existence of three different subtype III lineages, all derived from independent introductions. This study documents significant genetic diversity of circulating viruses within the same subtype and an unusual capacity of the population of this city to support continuous circulation of multiple variants of dengue virus. PMID:20810837

Phylogeography of Dengue Virus Serotype 4, Brazil, 2010–2011

PubMed Central

Nunes, Marcio Roberto Teixeira; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues; Vasconcelos, Helena Baldez; Medeiros, Daniele Barbosa de Almeida; Silva de Lima, Clayton Pereira; Carvalho, Valéria Lima; Pinto da Silva, Eliana Vieira; Cardoso, Jedson Ferreira; Sousa, Edivaldo Costa; Nunes, Keley Nascimento Barbosa; Rodrigues, Sueli Guerreiro; Abecasis, Ana Barroso; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe

2012-01-01

Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV-4) reemerged in Roraima State, Brazil, 28 years after it was last detected in the country in 1982. To study the origin and evolution of this reemergence, full-length sequences were obtained for 16 DENV-4 isolates from northern (Roraima, Amazonas, Pará States) and northeastern (Bahia State) Brazil during the 2010 and 2011 dengue virus seasons and for an isolate from the 1982 epidemic in Roraima. Spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-4 introductions in Brazil were applied to envelope genes and full genomes by using Bayesian phylogeographic analyses. An introduction of genotype I into Brazil from Southeast Asia was confirmed, and full genome phylogeographic analyses revealed multiple introductions of DENV-4 genotype II in Brazil, providing evidence for >3 introductions of this genotype within the last decade: 2 from Venezuela to Roraima and 1 from Colombia to Amazonas. The phylogeographic analysis of full genome data has demonstrated the origins of DENV-4 throughout Brazil. PMID:23092706

DenguePredict: An Integrated Drug Repositioning Approach towards Drug Discovery for Dengue.

PubMed

Wang, QuanQiu; Xu, Rong

2015-01-01

Dengue is a viral disease of expanding global incidence without cures. Here we present a drug repositioning system (DenguePredict) leveraging upon a unique drug treatment database and vast amounts of disease- and drug-related data. We first constructed a large-scale genetic disease network with enriched dengue genetics data curated from biomedical literature. We applied a network-based ranking algorithm to find dengue-related diseases from the disease network. We then developed a novel algorithm to prioritize FDA-approved drugs from dengue-related diseases to treat dengue. When tested in a de-novo validation setting, DenguePredict found the only two drugs tested in clinical trials for treating dengue and ranked them highly: chloroquine ranked at top 0.96% and ivermectin at top 22.75%. We showed that drugs targeting immune systems and arachidonic acid metabolism-related apoptotic pathways might represent innovative drugs to treat dengue. In summary, DenguePredict, by combining comprehensive disease- and drug-related data and novel algorithms, may greatly facilitate drug discovery for dengue.

Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks.

PubMed

Villela, D A M; Bastos, L S; DE Carvalho, L M; Cruz, O G; Gomes, M F C; Durovni, B; Lemos, M C; Saraceni, V; Coelho, F C; Codeço, C T

2017-06-01

Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R 0 = 2·33, 95% CI: 1·97-2·97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R 0 = 1·70 [1·50-2·02]; year 2012: R 0 = 1·25 [1·18-1·36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive R 0 of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R 0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika's R 0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.

Dengue-associated kidney disease.

PubMed

Lizarraga, Karlo J; Nayer, Ali

2014-01-01

A mosquito-borne viral illness highly prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, dengue is considered a major global health threat by the World Health Organization. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. An RNA virus from the genus Flavivirus, dengue virus is transmitted by Aedes aegypti,the yellow fever mosquito. Dengue is asymptomatic in as many as one half of infected individuals. Dengue fever is an acute febrile illness accompanied by constitutional symptoms. Dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome are the severe forms of dengue infection.Dengue infection has been associated with a variety of renal disorders. Acute renal failure is a potential complication of severe dengue infection and is typically associated with hypotension, rhabdomyolysis, or hemolysis. Acute renal failure complicates severe dengue infection in 2-5% of the cases and carries a high mortality rate. Proteinuria has been detected in as high as 74% of patients with severe dengue infection. Hematuria has been reported in up to 12.5% of patients. Various types of glomerulonephritis have been reported during or shortly after dengue infection in humans and mouse models of dengue infection. Mesangial proliferation and immune complex deposition are the dominant histologic features of dengue-associated glomerulonephritis. On a rare occasion, dengue infection is associated with systemic autoimmune disorders involving the kidneys. In the vast majority of cases, dengue infection and associated renal disorders are self-limited.

Household Dengue Prevention Interventions, Expenditures, and Barriers to Aedes aegypti Control in Machala, Ecuador.

PubMed

Heydari, Naveed; Larsen, David A; Neira, Marco; Beltrán Ayala, Efraín; Fernandez, Prissila; Adrian, Jefferson; Rochford, Rosemary; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M

2017-02-16

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an efficient vector for the transmission of Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses, causing major epidemics and a significant social and economic burden throughout the tropics and subtropics. The primary means of preventing these diseases is household-level mosquito control. However, relatively little is known about the economic burden of Ae. aegypti control in resource-limited communities. We surveyed residents from 40 households in a high-risk community at the urban periphery in the city of Machala, Ecuador, on dengue perceptions, vector control interventions, household expenditures, and factors influencing purchasing decisions. The results of this study show that households spend a monthly median of US$2.00, or 1.90% (range: 0.00%, 9.21%) of their family income on Ae. aegypti control interventions. Households reported employing, on average, five different mosquito control and dengue prevention interventions, including aerosols, liquid sprays, repellents, mosquito coils, and unimpregnated bed nets. We found that effectiveness and cost were the most important factors that influence people's decisions to purchase a mosquito control product. Our findings will inform the development and deployment of new Ae. aegypti control interventions by the public health and private sectors, and add to prior studies that have focused on the economic burden of dengue-like illness.

Household Dengue Prevention Interventions, Expenditures, and Barriers to Aedes aegypti Control in Machala, Ecuador

PubMed Central

Heydari, Naveed; Larsen, David A.; Neira, Marco; Beltrán Ayala, Efraín; Fernandez, Prissila; Adrian, Jefferson; Rochford, Rosemary; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

2017-01-01

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an efficient vector for the transmission of Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses, causing major epidemics and a significant social and economic burden throughout the tropics and subtropics. The primary means of preventing these diseases is household-level mosquito control. However, relatively little is known about the economic burden of Ae. aegypti control in resource-limited communities. We surveyed residents from 40 households in a high-risk community at the urban periphery in the city of Machala, Ecuador, on dengue perceptions, vector control interventions, household expenditures, and factors influencing purchasing decisions. The results of this study show that households spend a monthly median of US$2.00, or 1.90% (range: 0.00%, 9.21%) of their family income on Ae. aegypti control interventions. Households reported employing, on average, five different mosquito control and dengue prevention interventions, including aerosols, liquid sprays, repellents, mosquito coils, and unimpregnated bed nets. We found that effectiveness and cost were the most important factors that influence people’s decisions to purchase a mosquito control product. Our findings will inform the development and deployment of new Ae. aegypti control interventions by the public health and private sectors, and add to prior studies that have focused on the economic burden of dengue-like illness. PMID:28212349

Dengue-associated kidney disease

PubMed Central

J Lizarraga, Karlo; Nayer, Ali

2014-01-01

Context: A mosquito-borne viral illness highly prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, dengue is considered a major global health threat by the World Health Organization. Evidence Acquisitions: Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. Results: An RNA virus from the genus Flavivirus, dengue virus is transmitted by Aedes aegypti,the yellow fever mosquito. Dengue is asymptomatic in as many as one half of infected individuals. Dengue fever is an acute febrile illness accompanied by constitutional symptoms. Dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome are the severe forms of dengue infection.Dengue infection has been associated with a variety of renal disorders. Acute renal failure is a potential complication of severe dengue infection and is typically associated with hypotension, rhabdomyolysis, or hemolysis. Acute renal failure complicates severe dengue infection in 2-5% of the cases and carries a high mortality rate. Proteinuria has been detected in as high as 74% of patients with severe dengue infection. Hematuria has been reported in up to 12.5% of patients. Various types of glomerulonephritis have been reported during or shortly after dengue infection in humans and mouse models of dengue infection. Mesangial proliferation and immune complex deposition are the dominant histologic features of dengue-associated glomerulonephritis. On a rare occasion, dengue infection is associated with systemic autoimmune disorders involving the kidneys. Conclusions: In the vast majority of cases, dengue infection and associated renal disorders are self-limited. PMID:24772398

Dengue infection.

PubMed

Guzman, Maria G; Gubler, Duane J; Izquierdo, Alienys; Martinez, Eric; Halstead, Scott B

2016-08-18

Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics and local spatial variation in dengue virus transmission is strongly influenced by rainfall, temperature, urbanization and distribution of the principal mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. Currently, endemic dengue virus transmission is reported in the Eastern Mediterranean, American, South-East Asian, Western Pacific and African regions, whereas sporadic local transmission has been reported in Europe and the United States as the result of virus introduction to areas where Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus, a secondary vector, occur. The global burden of the disease is not well known, but its epidemiological patterns are alarming for both human health and the global economy. Dengue has been identified as a disease of the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. According to the WHO, dengue control is technically feasible with coordinated international technical and financial support for national programmes. This Primer provides a general overview on dengue, covering epidemiology, control, disease mechanisms, diagnosis, treatment and research priorities.

Dengue virus type 1 clade replacement in recurring homotypic outbreaks

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recurring dengue outbreaks occur in cyclical pattern in most endemic countries. The recurrences of dengue virus (DENV) infection predispose the population to increased risk of contracting the severe forms of dengue. Understanding the DENV evolutionary mechanism underlying the recurring dengue outbreaks has important implications for epidemic prediction and disease control. Results We used a set of viral envelope (E) gene to reconstruct the phylogeny of DENV-1 isolated between the periods of 1987–2011 in Malaysia. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-1 E gene revealed that genotype I virus clade replacements were associated with the cyclical pattern of major DENV-1 outbreaks in Malaysia. A total of 9 non-conservative amino acid substitutions in the DENV-1 E gene consensus were identified; 4 in domain I, 3 in domain II and 2 in domain III. Selection pressure analyses did not reveal any positively selected codon site within the full length E gene sequences (1485 nt, 495 codons). A total of 183 (mean dN/dS = 0.0413) negatively selected sites were found within the Malaysian isolates; neither positive nor negative selection was noted for the remaining 312 codons. All the viruses were cross-neutralized by the respective patient sera suggesting no strong support for immunological advantage of any of the amino acid substitutions. Conclusion DENV-1 clade replacement is associated with recurrences of major DENV-1 outbreaks in Malaysia. Our findings are consistent with those of other studies that the DENV-1 clade replacement is a stochastic event independent of positive selection. PMID:24073945

[Dengue, zika, chikungunya and the development of vaccines].

PubMed

Kantor, Isabel N

2018-01-01

Dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), three arbovirosis transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, have spread in recent decades in humid tropical and subtropical zones. Dengue is epidemic in subtropical areas of Argentina. DENV infection confers lasting immunity against the infecting serotype but increases the risk of serious disease upon reinfection by any of the other three. The recombinant tetravalent vaccine Dengvaxia® prevents severe dengue and hospitalization in seropositive subjects. In 2017, Dengvaxia was approved in Argentina, for ages 9 to 45, but is not included in the national vaccination calendar. Two other vaccines are in Phase III evaluation: one developed by NIAID / Instituto Butantan and the other by Takeda. ZIKV, a virus associated with microcephaly in newborns in Brazil, circulates since 2016 in Argentina. There is still not effective treatment nor vaccine with proven activity against ZIKV. There has been no active circulation of CHIKV in Argentina in 2017. Outbreaks of CHIKV fever have a complication: the development of chronic post-disease rheumatism. There are not approved vaccines for humans nor effective antiviral therapies. The seriousness of these virosis has contributed to a rapid progress in the knowledge of the infection processes and the immune response. For now, Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus vectors continue to expand, suggesting that the vaccine will be the most effective means of controlling these viruses. Here we summarize information about these arbovirosis in Argentina and Brazil and describe advances in the development and evaluation of vaccines.

Introducing dengue vaccine: Implications for diagnosis in dengue vaccinated subjects.

PubMed

Alagarasu, Kalichamy

2016-05-27

Diagnosis of dengue virus infections is complicated by preference for different diagnostic tests in different post onset days of illness and the presence of multiple serotypes leading to secondary and tertiary infections. The sensitivity of the most commonly employed diagnostic assays such as anti dengue IgM capture (MAC) ELISA and non structural protein (NS) 1 capture ELISA are lower in secondary and subsequent infections. Introduction of dengue vaccine in endemic regions will affect the way how dengue is diagnosed in vaccinated subjects. This viewpoint article discusses implications of introduction of dengue vaccine on the diagnosis of dengue infections in vaccinated subjects and the strategies that are needed to tackle the issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of Dengue Disease and Entomological Monitoring in Santa Cruz, Bolivia 2002 – 2008

PubMed Central

Brémond, Philippe; Roca, Yelin; Brenière, Simone Frédérique; Walter, Annie; Barja-Simon, Zaira; Fernández, Roberto Torres; Vargas, Jorge

2015-01-01

Background In the context of a rapid increase of dengue cases in the Americas, a monitoring system based on systematic serological control (IgM) of patients consulting for suspected dengue was developed in Bolivia at the end of the 1990s. In the most affected city of Santa Cruz, this system was complemented by an entomological surveillance program based on periodical search for immature stages of Aedes aegypti in dwelling water-holding containers. Here, we analyze these data and describe dengue patterns over 6 years (2002–2008), highlighting the spatial distribution of patients and vectors. Methodology /Principal Findings Data mining concerned six annual epidemic cycles (2002–2008), with continuous serological and clinical results and entomological data from 16 surveys, examined at the scales of 36 urban areas and four concentric areas covering the entire city. Annual incidence varied from 0.28‰ to 0.95‰; overall incidence was higher in women and adults, and dengue dynamics followed successive periods of high (January–June) and low (July–December) transmission. Lower numbers of cases from the city center to the periphery were observed, poorly related to the more homogeneous and permanent distribution of A. aegypti. "Plant pots" were a major vector source in the city center, and "Tires" and "Odds and ends" beyond the second ring of the city. Conclusions/Significance Over the years, the increasing trend of dengue cases has been highlighted as well as its widespread distribution over the entire city, but an underestimation of the number of cases is strongly suspected. Contrary to popular belief, the city center appears more affected than the periphery, and dengue is not particularly related to waste. Interestingly, the clinical diagnosis of dengue by physicians improved over the years, whatever the gender, age and residential area of suspected cases. PMID:25706631

Societal impact of dengue outbreaks: Stakeholder perceptions and related implications. A qualitative study in Brazil, 2015

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, Mariana; Davis, Ben; Besson, Marie-Hélène; Audureau, Etienne; Saba, Joseph

2017-01-01

Background The growing burden of dengue in many countries worldwide and the difficulty of preventing outbreaks have increased the urgency to identify alternative public health management strategies and effective approaches to control and prevent dengue outbreaks. The objectives of this study were to understand the impact of dengue outbreak on different stakeholders in Brazil, to explore their perceptions of approaches used by governmental authorities to control and prevent dengue outbreaks and to define the challenges and implications of preventing future outbreaks. Methods In 2015, a qualitative study was conducted in two urban states in Brazil: São Paulo, which was experiencing an outbreak in 2015, and Rio de Janeiro, which experienced outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. Face-to-face interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire were conducted with nine different categories of stakeholders: health workers (physicians, nurses), hospital administrators, municipal government representatives, community members and leaders, school administrators, business leaders and vector control managers. Interviews were focused on the following areas: impact of the dengue outbreak, perceptions of control measures implemented by governmental authorities during outbreaks and challenges in preventing future dengue outbreaks. Results A total of 40 stakeholders were included in the study. Health workers and community members reported longer waiting times at hospitals due to the increased number of patients receiving care for dengue-related symptoms. Health workers and hospital administrators reported that there were no major interruptions in access to care. Overall financial impact of dengue outbreaks on households was greatest for low-income families. Despite prevention and control campaigns implemented between outbreak periods, various stakeholders reported that dengue prevention and control efforts performed by municipal authorities remained insufficient, suggesting that efforts should

The epidemiologic surveillance of dengue-fever in French Guiana: when achievements trigger higher goals.

PubMed

Flamand, Claude; Quenel, Philippe; Ardillon, Vanessa; Carvalho, Luisiane; Bringay, Sandra; Teisseire, Maguelonne

2011-01-01

The epidemiology of dengue fever in French Guiana is marked by a combination of permanent transmission of the virus in the whole country and the occurrence of regular epidemics. Since 2006, a multi data source surveillance system was implemented to monitor dengue fever patterns, to improve early detection of outbreaks and to allow a better provision of information to health authorities, in order to guide and evaluate prevention activities and control measures. This report illustrates the validity and the performances of the system. We describe the experience gained by such a surveillance system and outline remaining challenges. Future works will consist in the use of other data sources such as environmental factors in order to improve knowledge on virus transmission mechanisms and determine how to use them for outbreaks prediction.

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

PubMed

Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

Dengue fever

PubMed Central

Badreddine, Samar; Al-Dhaheri, Fahmi; Al-Dabbagh, Ammar; Al-Amoudi, Abdulrahman; Al-Ammari, Maged; Elatassi, Nader; Abbas, Haytham; Magliah, Rami; Malibari, Abdulbasit; Almoallim, Hani

2017-01-01

Objectives: To delineate the clinical features and outcomes of dengue infection and to guide clinician of early diagnosis and identification of risks factors for dengue hemorrhagic fever. Methods: This study is a retrospective cross-sectional. Clinical records of 567 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of dengue infection, admitted to a single hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between January 2010 and June 2014 were reviewed. Results: Dengue infection was most common in adult males. Sixty-eight percent of infections were in Saudi nationals. In addition to the diagnostic clinical features, leucopenia and thrombocytopenia were typical of dengue infection. Approximately 4.1% of adult patients and 7.1% of pediatric patients developed dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Abdominal pain and vomiting were more common in patients developing DHF. Mean platelet count was lower in adult, but not pediatric patients developing DHF. Peak alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was higher in adult and pediatric patients developing DHF. Three patients died, 2 of them developed DHF. Ninety-eight percent of adult patients and 92% of pediatric patients made a full recovery. Conclusions: Dengue infection is common in Jeddah. Abdominal pain and vomiting, thrombocytopenia, and elevated ALT are typical of severe infection, which is more likely to be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. PMID:28917067

Temporal interactions facilitate endemicity in the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speidel, Leo; Klemm, Konstantin; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; Masuda, Naoki

2016-07-01

Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of both network structure and temporal dimensions. Theoretical approaches are much needed for identifying key factors that affect dynamics of epidemics. In particular, what factors make some temporal networks stronger media of infection than other temporal networks is under debate. We develop a theory to understand the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on arbitrary temporal networks, where each contact is used for a finite duration. We show that temporality of networks lessens the epidemic threshold such that infections persist more easily in temporal networks than in their static counterparts. We further show that the Lie commutator bracket of the adjacency matrices at different times is a key determinant of the epidemic threshold in temporal networks. The effect of temporality on the epidemic threshold, which depends on a data set, is approximately predicted by the magnitude of a commutator norm.

Sources of Dengue Viruses Imported into Queensland, Australia, 2002–2010

PubMed Central

Northill, Judith A.; Pyke, Alyssa T.

2012-01-01

To assess risk for importation of dengue virus (DENV) into Queensland, Australia, and sources of imported viruses, we sequenced the envelope region of DENV isolates from symptomatic patients with a history of travel during 2002–2010. The number of imported dengue cases greatly increased over the surveillance period, some of which were associated with domestic outbreaks. Patients reported traveling to (in order) Asia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Island countries, and non–Asia-Pacific countries. By using phylogenetic methods, we assigned DENV isolates from returning residents and overseas visitors with viremia to a specific genotypic group. Genotypes circulating in Asia were extremely diverse. Genotyping and molecular clock analysis supported Asian origination of a strain that caused an outbreak of DENV-4 in Pacific Island countries during 2007–2009, and subsequently, in Innisfail, Australia, in 2009. Our findings indicate that Asia is a major source of DENVs that are imported into Australia, causing a risk for epidemics. PMID:23092682

Piezoelectric immunochip for the detection of dengue fever in viremia phase.

PubMed

Wu, Tzong-Zeng; Su, Chih-Cheng; Chen, Li-Kuang; Yang, Hui-Hua; Tai, Dar-Fu; Peng, Kou-Cheng

2005-11-15

The global prevalence of dengue fever has grown so dramatically in recent years that it is endemic in more than 100 countries and has become a major international public health concern. Moreover, since the flu-like symptoms that accompany dengue fever are atypical and varied, the detection procedures currently used to identify it are cumbersome and time-consuming, making early stage epidemiological control and effective medical treatment of this epidemic almost impossible. In this study, a QCM-based detection system was developed in which two monoclonal antibodies against dengue E and NS-1 protein, respectively, were control orientated immobilized on QCM via protein A to produce an immunochip. Various sample pretreatment procedures were evaluated to ascertain the most suitable combination, and both the simulating samples and the clinical specimen were examined by the immunochip. The results revealed that the cibacron blue 3GA gel-heat denature (CB-HD) method was the most effective sample pretreatment technique. Due to the complex composition of the serum, the immunochip could only effectively quantify dengue viral antigens in a 1/1000 untreated simulated sample. With the help of the CB-HD method, the dilution folds were found to capable of being reduced from 1000 to 100, and the detection limit lowered to 1.727 microg/ml (E protein) and 0.740 microg/ml (NS-1 protein) in the original sample. While the cocktail immunochip could not quantify both antigens separately, the higher signal level rendered it a more effective qualification tool for suspect screening. Moreover, the results of the analysis of clinical specimens also proved the ability and future potential of cocktail immunochip in discriminating dengue-positive cases from negative serum specimens in the viremia phase.

Dengue human infection models to advance dengue vaccine development.

PubMed

Larsen, Christian P; Whitehead, Stephen S; Durbin, Anna P

2015-12-10

Dengue viruses (DENV) currently infect approximately 400 million people each year causing millions to seek care and overwhelming the health care infrastructure in endemic areas. Vaccines to prevent dengue and therapeutics to treat dengue are not currently available. The efficacy of the most advanced candidate vaccine against symptomatic dengue in general and DENV-2 in particular was much lower than expected, despite the ability of the vaccine to induce neutralizing antibody against all four DENV serotypes. Because seroconversion to the DENV serotypes following vaccination was thought to be indicative of induced protection, these results have made it more difficult to assess which candidate vaccines should or should not be evaluated in large studies in endemic areas. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) could be extremely valuable to down-select candidate vaccines or therapeutics prior to engaging in efficacy trials in endemic areas. Two DHIM have been developed to assess the efficacy of live attenuated tetravalent (LATV) dengue vaccines. The first model, developed by the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases at the U. S. National Institutes of Health, utilizes a modified DENV-2 strain DEN2Δ30. This virus was derived from the DENV-2 Tonga/74 that caused only very mild clinical infection during the outbreak from which it was recovered. DEN2Δ30 induced viremia in 100%, rash in 80%, and neutropenia in 27% of the 30 subjects to whom it was given. The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) is developing a DHIM the goal of which is to identify DENV that cause symptomatic dengue fever. WRAIR has evaluated seven viruses and has identified two that meet dengue fever criteria. Both of these models may be very useful in the evaluation and down-selection of candidate dengue vaccines and therapeutics. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dengue vector control: present status and future prospects.

PubMed

Yap, H H; Chong, N L; Foo, A E; Lee, C Y

1994-12-01

Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) have been the most common urban diseases in Southeast Asia since the 1950s. More recently, the diseases have spread to Central and South America and are now considered as worldwide diseases. Both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are involved in the transmission of DF/DHF in Southeast Asian region. The paper discusses the present status and future prospects of Aedes control with reference to the Malaysian experience. Vector control approaches which include source reduction and environmental management, larviciding with the use of chemicals (synthetic insecticides and insect growth regulators and microbial insecticide), and adulticiding which include personal protection measures (household insecticide products and repellents) for long-term control and space spray (both thermal fogging and ultra low volume sprays) as short-term epidemic measures are discussed. The potential incorporation of IGRs and Bacillus thuringiensis-14 (Bti) as larvicides in addition to insecticides (temephos) is discussed. The advantages of using water-based spray over the oil-based (diesel) spray and the use of spray formulation which provide both larvicidal and adulticidal effects that would consequently have greater impact on the overall vector and disease control in DF/DHF are highlighted.

Role of T cells, cytokines and antibody in dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever.

PubMed

Fink, Joshua; Gu, Feng; Vasudevan, Subhash G

2006-01-01

Dengue infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. There is no vaccine for dengue and also there are no anti-viral drugs to treat the infection. Some patients, typically those experiencing a secondary infection with a different dengue serotype, may progress from an acute febrile disease to the more severe forms of disease, dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. Here we discuss the significant immunopathological component to severe disease and how T cells, cytokines and cross-reactive antibody combine to contribute to the progression to dengue haemorrhagic fever. These events are thought to lead to vascular leakage, the signature event in dengue haemorrhagic fever, and are addressed in this review by incorporating the concept of heterologous T cell immunity. The need for effective measures against dengue and dengue-related illness is clear. We propose that drugs against dengue virus, or the symptoms of severe dengue disease, are a viable goal.

Surveillance for dengue and dengue-associated neurologic syndromes in the United States.

PubMed

Waterman, Stephen H; Margolis, Harold S; Sejvar, James J

2015-05-01

Autochthonous dengue virus transmission has occurred in the continental United States with increased frequency during the last decade; the principal vector, Aedes aegypti, has expanded its geographic distribution in the southern United States. Dengue, a potentially fatal arboviral disease, is underreported, and US clinicians encountering patients with acute febrile illness consistent with dengue are likely to not be fully familiar with dengue diagnosis and management. Recently, investigators suggested that an outbreak of dengue likely occurred in Houston during 2003 based on retrospective laboratory testing of hospitalized cases with encephalitis and aseptic meningitis. Although certain aspects of the Houston testing results and argument for local transmission are doubtful, the report highlights the importance of prospective surveillance for dengue in Aedes-infested areas of the United States, the need for clinical training on dengue and its severe manifestations, and the need for laboratory testing in domestic patients presenting with febrile neurologic illness in these regions to include dengue. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Surveillance for Dengue and Dengue-Associated Neurologic Syndromes in the United States

PubMed Central

Waterman, Stephen H.; Margolis, Harold S.; Sejvar, James J.

2015-01-01

Autochthonous dengue virus transmission has occurred in the continental United States with increased frequency during the last decade; the principal vector, Aedes aegypti, has expanded its geographic distribution in the southern United States. Dengue, a potentially fatal arboviral disease, is underreported, and US clinicians encountering patients with acute febrile illness consistent with dengue are likely to not be fully familiar with dengue diagnosis and management. Recently, investigators suggested that an outbreak of dengue likely occurred in Houston during 2003 based on retrospective laboratory testing of hospitalized cases with encephalitis and aseptic meningitis. Although certain aspects of the Houston testing results and argument for local transmission are doubtful, the report highlights the importance of prospective surveillance for dengue in Aedes-infested areas of the United States, the need for clinical training on dengue and its severe manifestations, and the need for laboratory testing in domestic patients presenting with febrile neurologic illness in these regions to include dengue. PMID:25371183

Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010.

PubMed

Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Muñoz, Ángel G; Ryan, Sadie J; Ayala, Efraín Beltrán; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Finkelstein, Julia L; Mejía, Raúl; Ordoñez, Tania; Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina; Rivero, Keytia

2014-11-25

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is a rapidly emerging public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics. However, we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. Previous studies in southern coastal Ecuador have demonstrated the potential to develop a dengue early warning system (EWS) that incorporates climate and non-climate information. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS. The following data from Machala were included in analyses: neighborhood-level georeferenced dengue cases, national census data, and entomological surveillance data from 2010; and time series of weekly dengue cases (aggregated to the city-level) and meteorological data from 2003 to 2012. We applied LISA and Moran's I to analyze the spatial distribution of the 2010 dengue cases, and developed multivariate logistic regression models through a multi-model selection process to identify census variables and entomological covariates associated with the presence of dengue at the neighborhood level. Using data aggregated at the city-level, we conducted a time-series (wavelet) analysis of weekly climate and dengue incidence (2003-2012) to identify significant time periods (e.g., annual, biannual) when climate co-varied with dengue, and to describe the climate conditions associated with the 2010 outbreak. We found significant hotspots of dengue transmission near the center of Machala. The best-fit model to predict the presence of dengue included older age and female gender of the head of the household, greater access to piped water in the home, poor housing condition, and less distance to the central hospital. Wavelet analyses revealed that dengue transmission co-varied with rainfall and minimum temperature at annual and biannual cycles, and we

Dengue seroprevalence and risk factors for past and recent viral transmission in Venezuela: a comprehensive community-based study.

PubMed

Velasco-Salas, Zoraida I; Sierra, Gloria M; Guzmán, Diamelis M; Zambrano, Julio; Vivas, Daniel; Comach, Guillermo; Wilschut, Jan C; Tami, Adriana

2014-11-01

Dengue transmission in Venezuela has become perennial and a major public health problem. The increase in frequency and magnitude of recent epidemics prompted a comprehensive community-based cross-sectional study of 2,014 individuals in high-incidence neighborhoods of Maracay, Venezuela. We found a high seroprevalence (77.4%), with 10% of people experiencing recent infections. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that poverty-related socioeconomic factors (place and duration of residence, crowding, household size, and living in a shack) and factors/constraints related to intradomiciliary potential mosquito breeding sites (storing water and used tires) were linked with a greater risk of acquiring a dengue infection. Our results also suggest that transmission occurs mainly at home. The combination of increasingly crowded living conditions, growing population density, precarious homes, and water storage issues caused by enduring problems in public services in Maracay are the most likely factors that determine the permanent dengue transmission and the failure of vector control programs. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Dengue Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Past and Recent Viral Transmission in Venezuela: A Comprehensive Community-Based Study

PubMed Central

Velasco-Salas, Zoraida I.; Sierra, Gloria M.; Guzmán, Diamelis M.; Zambrano, Julio; Vivas, Daniel; Comach, Guillermo; Wilschut, Jan C.; Tami, Adriana

2014-01-01

Dengue transmission in Venezuela has become perennial and a major public health problem. The increase in frequency and magnitude of recent epidemics prompted a comprehensive community-based cross-sectional study of 2,014 individuals in high-incidence neighborhoods of Maracay, Venezuela. We found a high seroprevalence (77.4%), with 10% of people experiencing recent infections. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that poverty-related socioeconomic factors (place and duration of residence, crowding, household size, and living in a shack) and factors/constraints related to intradomiciliary potential mosquito breeding sites (storing water and used tires) were linked with a greater risk of acquiring a dengue infection. Our results also suggest that transmission occurs mainly at home. The combination of increasingly crowded living conditions, growing population density, precarious homes, and water storage issues caused by enduring problems in public services in Maracay are the most likely factors that determine the permanent dengue transmission and the failure of vector control programs. PMID:25223944

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Thiem, Vu Dinh; White, Richard G; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Tho, Le Huu; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-08-01

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Wolf-Peter; Suzuki, Motoi; Dinh Thiem, Vu; White, Richard G.; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yanai, Hideki; Haque, Ubydul; Huu Tho, Le; Anh, Dang Duc; Ariyoshi, Koya

2011-01-01

Background Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. Methods and Findings We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km2 prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Conclusions Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21918642

New approaches to structure-based discovery of dengue protease inhibitors.

PubMed

Tomlinson, S M; Malmstrom, R D; Watowich, S J

2009-06-01

Dengue virus (DENV), a member of the family Flaviviridae, presents a tremendous threat to global health since an estimated 2.5 billion people worldwide are at risk for epidemic transmission. DENV infections are primarily restricted to sub-tropical and tropical regions; however, there is concern that the virus will spread into new regions including the United States. There are no approved antiviral drugs or vaccines to combat dengue infection, although DENV vaccines have entered Phase 3 clinical trials. Drug discovery and development efforts against DENV and other viral pathogens must overcome specificity, efficacy, safety, and resistance challenges before the shortage of licensed drugs to treat viral infections can be relieved. Current drug discovery methods are largely inefficient and thus relatively ineffective at tackling the growing threat to public health presented by emerging and remerging viral pathogens. This review discusses current and newly implemented structure-based computational efforts to discover antivirals that target the DENV NS3 protease, although it is clear that these computational tools can be applied to most disease targets.

Social media-based civic engagement solutions for dengue prevention in Sri Lanka: results of receptivity assessment

PubMed Central

Lwin, May O.; Vijaykumar, Santosh; Foo, Schubert; Fernando, Owen Noel Newton; Lim, Gentatsu; Panchapakesan, Chitra; Wimalaratne, Prasad

2016-01-01

This article focuses on a novel social media-based system that addresses dengue prevention through an integration of three components: predictive surveillance, civic engagement and health education. The aim was to conduct a potential receptivity assessment of this system among smartphone users in the city of Colombo, the epicenter of the dengue epidemic in the island country of Sri Lanka. Grounded in Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and using a convenience sampling approach, the cross-sectional survey assessed perceived severity (PSe), perceived susceptibility (PSu), perceived response efficacy (PRE), perceived self-efficacy (PSE) and intention-to-use (IU) among 513 individuals. The overall receptivity to the system was high with a score of >4.00 on a five-point scale. Participants belonging to younger, better educated and higher income groups reported significantly better perceptions of the efficaciousness of the system, were confident in their ability to use the system, and planned to use it in the future. PMT variables contributed significantly to regression models predicting IU. We concluded that a social media-based system for dengue prevention will be positively received among Colombo residents and a targeted, strategic health communication effort to raise dengue-related threat perceptions will be needed to encourage greater adoption and use of the system. PMID:26668207

El Niño Helps Spread Bartonellosis Epidemics in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, William K.-M.; Masuoka, Fenny M.; Andre, Richard G.; Chamberlin, Judith; Lawyer, Phillip; Laughlin, Larry W.

The consequences of climate variability on human health, especially for poor and medically underserved populations, have received much attention in recent years. Some of the most severe health hazards induced by climate variability are epidemics of vector-borne infectious diseases. Entomologic studies have shown that insect vectors that transmit diseases, such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue, etc., are sensitive to temperature, humidity wind, and rainfall patterns, and therefore, their abundance is potentially influenced by climate variability. Because of its geographical location, the climate of tropical South America is strongly influenced by El Niño. The episodic outbreaks of various diseases in this region have been linked to the El Niño cycles. Yet, according to a report of the World Health Organization [1999], early results from South American epidemiological studies, which were based on the aggregated national disease data irrespective of the regional meteorological impacts, found no consistent correlation between the El Niño effect with the epidemics of malaria and yellow fever.

Dengue Virus Type 3 Adaptive Changes during Epidemics in São Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006–2007

PubMed Central

Bosch, Irene; Schimitt, Diane; Calzavara-Silva, Carlos E.; de A Zanotto, Paolo M.; Nogueira, Maurício L.

2013-01-01

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of São José de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak. PMID:23667626

Concurrent dengue and malaria infection in Lahore, Pakistan during the 2012 dengue outbreak.

PubMed

Assir, Muhammad Zaman Khan; Masood, Muhammad Adnan; Ahmad, Hafiz Ijaz

2014-01-01

We conducted this study to determine the frequency of malaria and dengue-malaria co-infection in patients admitted to our hospital as 'probable' cases of dengue fever during the 2012 outbreak of dengue, and to ascertain whether dengue-malaria co-infection was more severe than either infection alone. This cross-sectional observational study was conducted at Jinnah Hospital Lahore, Pakistan between August and November 2012. Patients with 2-10 days of fever and with two or more of the following: myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain, headache, skin rash, and hemorrhagic manifestations plus thrombocytopenia and leukopenia, were classified as probable cases of dengue fever and were subjected to reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR and/or dengue-specific IgM by ELISA. The diagnosis of malaria was established on thick and thin blood film microscopy. Severe disease was defined by the presence of an altered level of consciousness, World Health Organization grade ≥2 bleeding, jaundice, circulatory shock, hemoglobin <50g/l, platelet count <50×10(9)/l, serum creatinine >265μmol/l, or death. There were 85 probable cases of dengue fever. Sixty-four (75%) were male and the median age was 22 years (range 12-90 years). Of 52 patients for whom results of diagnostic tests for both dengue and malaria were available, five (10%) had isolated dengue infection, 18 (35%) isolated Plasmodium infection, and 17 (33%) dengue-malaria co-infection. Thirty-five out of 52 (67%) probable cases had malaria and 17 out of 22 (77%) dengue-specific IgM reactive patients had concurrent malaria. Patients with isolated malaria had significantly lower median hemoglobin concentrations (124.5g/l vs. 144.0 g/l, p = 0.04) and median hematocrit (36.0 vs. 41.7, p=0.02) at presentation than cases of isolated dengue. Patients with dengue-malaria co-infection had a significantly lower rate of jaundice than those with isolated dengue (0% vs. 40%, p = 0.04). The frequency of severe disease was comparable amongst the

What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks.

PubMed

Isella, Lorenzo; Stehlé, Juliette; Barrat, Alain; Cattuto, Ciro; Pinton, Jean-François; Van den Broeck, Wouter

2011-02-21

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible-infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct Costs of Dengue Hospitalization in Brazil: Public and Private Health Care Systems and Use of WHO Guidelines

PubMed Central

Vieira Machado, Alessandra A.; Estevan, Anderson Oliveira; Sales, Antonio; Brabes, Kelly Cristina da Silva; Croda, Júlio; Negrão, Fábio Juliano

2014-01-01

Background Dengue, an arboviral disease, is a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In Brazil, epidemics have become increasingly important, with increases in the number of hospitalizations and the costs associated with the disease. This study aimed to describe the direct costs of hospitalized dengue cases, the financial impact of admissions and the use of blood products where current protocols for disease management were not followed. Methods and Results To analyze the direct costs of dengue illness and platelet transfusion in Brazil based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional census study on hospitalized dengue patients in the public and private Brazilian health systems in Dourados City, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. The analysis involved cases that occurred from January through December during the 2010 outbreak. In total, we examined 8,226 mandatorily reported suspected dengue cases involving 507 hospitalized patients. The final sample comprised 288 laboratory-confirmed dengue patients, who accounted for 56.8% of all hospitalized cases. The overall cost of the hospitalized dengue cases was US $210,084.30, in 2010, which corresponded to 2.5% of the gross domestic product per capita in Dourados that year. In 35.2% of cases, blood products were used in patients who did not meet the blood transfusion criteria. The overall median hospitalization cost was higher (p = 0.002) in the group that received blood products (US $1,622.40) compared with the group that did not receive blood products (US $550.20). Conclusion The comparative costs between the public and the private health systems show that both the hospitalization of and platelet transfusion in patients who do not meet the WHO and Brazilian dengue guidelines increase the direct costs, but not the quality, of health care. PMID:25188295

Direct costs of dengue hospitalization in Brazil: public and private health care systems and use of WHO guidelines.

PubMed

Vieira Machado, Alessandra A; Estevan, Anderson Oliveira; Sales, Antonio; Brabes, Kelly Cristina da Silva; Croda, Júlio; Negrão, Fábio Juliano

2014-09-01

Dengue, an arboviral disease, is a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In Brazil, epidemics have become increasingly important, with increases in the number of hospitalizations and the costs associated with the disease. This study aimed to describe the direct costs of hospitalized dengue cases, the financial impact of admissions and the use of blood products where current protocols for disease management were not followed. To analyze the direct costs of dengue illness and platelet transfusion in Brazil based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional census study on hospitalized dengue patients in the public and private Brazilian health systems in Dourados City, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. The analysis involved cases that occurred from January through December during the 2010 outbreak. In total, we examined 8,226 mandatorily reported suspected dengue cases involving 507 hospitalized patients. The final sample comprised 288 laboratory-confirmed dengue patients, who accounted for 56.8% of all hospitalized cases. The overall cost of the hospitalized dengue cases was US $210,084.30, in 2010, which corresponded to 2.5% of the gross domestic product per capita in Dourados that year. In 35.2% of cases, blood products were used in patients who did not meet the blood transfusion criteria. The overall median hospitalization cost was higher (p = 0.002) in the group that received blood products (US $1,622.40) compared with the group that did not receive blood products (US $550.20). The comparative costs between the public and the private health systems show that both the hospitalization of and platelet transfusion in patients who do not meet the WHO and Brazilian dengue guidelines increase the direct costs, but not the quality, of health care.

Aedes aegypti from temperate regions of South America are highly competent to transmit dengue virus

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Aedes aegypti is extensively spread throughout South America where it has been responsible for large dengue epidemics during the last decades. Intriguingly, dengue transmission has not been reported in Uruguay and is essentially prevalent in subtropical northern Argentina which borders Uruguay. Methods We assessed vector competence for dengue virus (DENV) of Ae. aegypti populations collected in subtropical Argentina (Corrientes) as well as temperate Uruguay (Salto) and Argentina (Buenos Aires) in 2012 using experimental oral infections with DENV-2. Mosquitoes were incubated at 28°C and examined at 14 and 21 days p.i. to access viral dissemination and transmission. Batches of the Buenos Aires mosquitoes were also incubated at 15°C and 20°C. Results Although mosquitoes from temperate Uruguay and Argentina were competent to transmit DENV, those from subtropical Argentina were more susceptible, displaying the highest virus titters in the head and presenting the highest dissemination of infection and transmission efficiency rates when incubated at 28°C. Interestingly, infectious viral particles could be detected in saliva of mosquitoes from Buenos Aires exposed to 15°C and 20°C. Conclusions There is a potential risk of establishing DENV transmission in Uruguay and for the spread of dengue outbreaks to other parts of subtropical and temperate Argentina, notably during spring and summer periods. PMID:24373423

The changing face of an epidemic: healthy old age with HIV.

PubMed

Nugent, D B; Chowdhury, M; Waters, L J

2017-09-02

The demographics of the HIV epidemic in the UK have changed significantly. Owing to a steady rate of new diagnoses and improved survival, the population of individuals living with HIV continues to increase. HIV is now widely considered to be a chronic condition and HIV-positive individuals are expected to live into old age. Increasing rates of age-related comorbidities challenge HIV care providers to deliver durable viral suppression, ensure long-term adherence to antiretroviral treatment and promote wellbeing into old age. High rates of mental health disorders and social stigma continue to have a negative impact on the quality of life of people living with HIV. Models of care must adapt to this evolving epidemic.

Dengue forecasting in São Paulo city with generalized additive models, artificial neural networks and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models.

PubMed

Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Santana, Lidia Maria Reis; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

2018-01-01

Globally, the number of dengue cases has been on the increase since 1990 and this trend has also been found in Brazil and its most populated city-São Paulo. Surveillance systems based on predictions allow for timely decision making processes, and in turn, timely and efficient interventions to reduce the burden of the disease. We conducted a comparative study of dengue predictions in São Paulo city to test the performance of trained seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models, generalized additive models and artificial neural networks. We also used a naïve model as a benchmark. A generalized additive model with lags of the number of cases and meteorological variables had the best performance, predicted epidemics of unprecedented magnitude and its performance was 3.16 times higher than the benchmark and 1.47 higher that the next best performing model. The predictive models captured the seasonal patterns but differed in their capacity to anticipate large epidemics and all outperformed the benchmark. In addition to be able to predict epidemics of unprecedented magnitude, the best model had computational advantages, since its training and tuning was straightforward and required seconds or at most few minutes. These are desired characteristics to provide timely results for decision makers. However, it should be noted that predictions are made just one month ahead and this is a limitation that future studies could try to reduce.

Competitive advantage of a dengue 4 virus when co-infecting the mosquito Aedes aegypti with a dengue 1 virus.

PubMed

Vazeille, Marie; Gaborit, Pascal; Mousson, Laurence; Girod, Romain; Failloux, Anna-Bella

2016-07-08

Dengue viruses (DENV) are comprised in four related serotypes (DENV-1 to 4) and are critically important arboviral pathogens affecting human populations in the tropics. South American countries have seen the reemergence of DENV since the 1970's associated with the progressive re-infestation by the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. In French Guiana, DENV is now endemic with the co-circulation of different serotypes resulting in viral epidemics. Between 2009 and 2010, a predominant serotype change occurred from DENV-1 to DENV-4 suggesting a competitive displacement. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential role of the mosquito in the selection of the new epidemic serotype. To test this hypothesis of competitive displacement of one serotype by another in the mosquito vector, we performed mono- and co-infections of local Ae. aegypti collected during the inter-epidemic period with both viral autochthonous epidemic serotypes and compared infection, dissemination and transmission rates. We performed oral artificial infections of F1 populations in BSL-3 conditions and analyzed infection, dissemination and transmission rates. When two populations of Ae. aegypti from French Guiana were infected with either serotype, no significant differences in dissemination and transmission were observed between DENV-1 and DENV-4. However, in co-infection experiments, a strong competitive advantage for DENV-4 was seen at the midgut level leading to a much higher dissemination of this serotype. Furthermore only DENV-4 was present in Ae. aegypti saliva and therefore able to be transmitted. In an endemic context, mosquito vectors may be infected by several DENV serotypes. Our results suggest a possible competition between serotypes at the midgut level in co-infected mosquitoes leading to a drastically different transmission potential and, in this case, favoring the competitive displacement of DENV-1 by DENV-4. This phenomenon was observed despite a similar replicative fitness

Virulence Markers of Dengue Viruses

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-20

of dengue viruses . We initially evaluated onocye-infectivity as a marker the for virulence of dengue-2 virus by testing 72 dengue-2 viral isolates...infectivity can be used as a virulence marker for dengue viruses . For this purpose, virulence is defined as the intrinsic ability of the virus to...but not dengue-1 and -3 viruses Table 5. Comparison of infectivity of dengue-2 virus in K-562 28 monocytes and viral monocyte infectivity index derived

Dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in adolescents and adults

PubMed Central