When Advisors' True Intentions Are in Question. How Do Bank Customers Cope with Uncertainty in Financial Consultancies?

PubMed

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva; Mühlberger, Christina

2017-01-01

When making financial decisions bank customers are confronted with two types of uncertainty: first, return on investments is uncertain and there is a risk of losing money. Second, customers cannot be certain about their financial advisor's true intentions. This might decrease customers' willingness to cooperate with advisors. However, the uncertainty management model and fairness heuristic theory predict that in uncertain situations customers are willing to cooperate with financial advisors when they perceive fairness. In the current study, we investigated how perceived fairness in the twofold uncertain situations increased people's intended future cooperation with an advisor. We asked customers of financial consultancies about their experienced uncertainty regarding both the investment decision and the advisor's intentions. Moreover, we asked them about their perceived fairness, as well as their intention to cooperate with the advisor in the future. A three-way moderation analysis showed that customers who faced high uncertainty regarding the investment decision and high uncertainty regarding the advisor's true intentions indicated the lowest intended cooperation with the advisor but high fairness increased their cooperation. Interestingly, when people were only uncertain about the advisor's intentions (but certain about the decision) they indicated less cooperation than when they were only uncertain about the decision (but certain about the advisor's intentions). A mediated moderation analysis revealed that this relationship was explained by customers' lower trust in their advisors.

Japan-U.S. Joint Ventures in Higher Education: Language Education in an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Thomas

1991-01-01

Examines Japanese-U.S. joint venture language or U.S.-style education programs in Japan. These programs offer language and cultural education classes for those interested in English and for students who have failed in the Japanese education system. Problems facing these programs and the need to explore new, English-language education markets are…

The IT Advantage Assessment Model: Applying an Expanded Value Chain Model to Academia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Walter L.; Stylianou, Antonis C.

2004-01-01

Academia faces an uncertain future as the 21st century unfolds. New demands, discerning students, increased competition from non-traditional competitors are just a few of the forces demanding a response. The use of information technology (IT) in academia has not kept pace with its use in industry. What has been lacking is a model for the strategic…

Families in Troubled Times: Adapting to Change in Rural America. Social Institutions and Social Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conger, Rand D.; Elder, Glen H., Jr.

In Iowa in the 1980s, dreams of prosperity were suddenly replaced by economic nightmares as plummeting land values generated economic decline and dislocation in rural communities and individual lives. This book examines the experience of over 400 Iowa families who lived through the Great Farm Crisis and now face an uncertain future. Interviewed as…

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

Treesearch

Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

2013-01-01

Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

Cooking the Books: What Counts as Literacy for Young Children in a Public Library?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Helen Victoria

2018-01-01

At a time when government funding cuts mean that public libraries face an uncertain future and need to make sure they stay relevant to young users and their families, this paper explores what counts as literacy for young children in a public library in a town in the East Midlands, UK. It is based on a study which adopted an ethnographic approach,…

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Future of Pacific salmon in the face of environmental change: Lessons from one of the world's remaining productive salmon regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoen, Erik R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Trammell, Jamie; Rinella, Daniel J.; Floyd, Angelica L.; Grunblatt, Jess; McCarthy, Molly D.; Meyer, Benjamin E.; Morton, John M.; Powell, James E.; Prakash, Anupma; Reimer, Matthew N.; Stuefer, Svetlana L.; Toniolo, Horacio; Wells, Brett M.; Witmer, Frank D. W.

2017-01-01

Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world-famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

Nuclear power generation and fuel cycle report 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-09-01

Nuclear power is an important source of electric energy and the amount of nuclear-generated electricity continued to grow as the performance of nuclear power plants improved. In 1996, nuclear power plants supplied 23 percent of the electricity production for countries with nuclear units, and 17 percent of the total electricity generated worldwide. However, the likelihood of nuclear power assuming a much larger role or even retaining its current share of electricity generation production is uncertain. The industry faces a complex set of issues including economic competitiveness, social acceptance, and the handling of nuclear waste, all of which contribute to themore » uncertain future of nuclear power. Nevertheless, for some countries the installed nuclear generating capacity is projected to continue to grow. Insufficient indigenous energy resources and concerns over energy independence make nuclear electric generation a viable option, especially for the countries of the Far East.« less

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

Factors That Will Determine Future Utilization Trends in Diagnostic Imaging.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Rao, Vijay M

2016-08-01

Radiologists are facing uncertain times, and in this kind of environment, strategic planning is important but difficult. In particular, it is hard to know whether future imaging volume will increase, decrease, or stay approximately the same. In this article, the authors discuss a variety of factors that will influence imaging use in the coming years. Some factors will tend to increase imaging use, whereas others will tend to curtail it. Some of these factors will affect individual groups differently, depending on their locations and the circumstances of their practices. Radiologists would be well advised to become aware of and consider these factors as they go about their planning processes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Protecting our Khmer daughters: ghosts of the past, uncertain futures, and the human papillomavirus vaccine.

PubMed

Burke, Nancy J; Do, Huyen H; Talbot, Jocelyn; Sos, Channdara; Ros, Srey; Taylor, Victoria M

2015-01-01

The FDA approved the first human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in 2006. Research into parental decision-making and concerns about HPV vaccination highlights questions about parenting and parents' role in the crafting of their daughters' future sexuality. In contrast to much of this literature, we explore narratives from interviews with Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters who experienced genocide and came to the USA as refugees. We conducted in-depth, in-person interviews with 25 Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters. Interviews were conducted in Khmer and translated into English for analysis. We followed standard qualitative analysis techniques including iterative data review, multiple coders, and 'member checking.' Five members of the research team reviewed all transcripts and two members independently coded each transcript for concepts and themes. Interview narratives highlight the presence of the past alongside desires for protection from uncertain futures. We turn to Quesada and colleagues' concept structural vulnerability to outline the constraints posed by these women's positionalities as genocide survivors when faced with making decisions in an area with which they have little direct knowledge or background: cervical cancer prevention. Our study sheds light on the prioritization of various protective health practices, including but not exclusive to HPV vaccination, for Khmer mothers, as well as the rationalities informing decision-making regarding their daughters' health.

Protecting our Khmer daughters: Ghosts of the past, uncertain futures, and the HPV vaccine

PubMed Central

Burke, Nancy J.; Do, Huyen H.; Talbot, Jocelyn; Sos, Channdara; Ros, Srey; Taylor, Victoria M.

2014-01-01

Objectives The FDA approved the first HPV vaccine in 2006. Research into parental decision-making and concerns about HPV vaccination highlight questions about parenting and parents’ role in the crafting of their daughters’ future sexuality. In contrast to much of this literature, we explore narratives from interviews with Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine age-eligible daughters who experienced genocide and came to the United States as refugees. Design We conducted in-depth, in-person interviews with 25 Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters. Interviews were conducted in Khmer and translated into English for analysis. We followed standard qualitative analysis techniques including iterative data review, multiple coders, and ‘member checking’. Five members of the research team reviewed all transcripts and two members independently coded each transcript for concepts and themes. Results Interview narratives highlight the presence of the past alongside desires for protection from uncertain futures. We turn to Quesada and colleagues’ (2011) concept structural vulnerability to outline the constraints posed by these women’s positionalities as genocide survivors when faced with making decisions in a area with which they have little direct knowledge or background: cervical cancer prevention. Conclusion Our study sheds light on the prioritization of various protective health practices, including but not exclusive to HPV vaccination, for Khmer mothers, as well as the rationalities informing decision-making regarding their daughters’ health. PMID:24905057

Scheduling in the Face of Uncertain Resource Consumption and Utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, Jeremy; Dearden, Richard

2003-01-01

We discuss the problem of scheduling tasks that consume uncertain amounts of a resource with known capacity and where the tasks have uncertain utility. In these circumstances, we would like to find schedules that exceed a lower bound on the expected utility when executed. We show that the problems are NP- complete, and present some results that characterize the behavior of some simple heuristics over a variety of problem classes.

CMPA not alone in pursuing huge reserves, CMAJ survey of US firms reveals.

PubMed Central

Korcok, M

1996-01-01

Although Canada and the US are two separate worlds when medical malpractice is considered, actuaries across North America are looking into their crystal balls in an attempt to set reserves for uncertain future claims. Given the relatively low rate of litigation in Canada, some feel the Canadian Medical Protective Association is hoarding cash as it continues to raise premiums even though it has close to $1 billion in reserves. However, some experts suggest that this is just a prudent way to do business in an unpredictable environment. Milan Korcok looks at the situation facing physicians on both sides of the border. PMID:8653650

CMPA not alone in pursuing huge reserves, CMAJ survey of US firms reveals.

PubMed

Korcok, M

1996-06-15

Although Canada and the US are two separate worlds when medical malpractice is considered, actuaries across North America are looking into their crystal balls in an attempt to set reserves for uncertain future claims. Given the relatively low rate of litigation in Canada, some feel the Canadian Medical Protective Association is hoarding cash as it continues to raise premiums even though it has close to $1 billion in reserves. However, some experts suggest that this is just a prudent way to do business in an unpredictable environment. Milan Korcok looks at the situation facing physicians on both sides of the border.

Long-range strategic planning: a case study.

PubMed

Moller-Tiger, D

1999-05-01

In highly competitive healthcare markets, integrated delivery systems (IDSs) that have exhausted traditional means of maintaining market competitiveness are challenged to identify effective new strategies that will ensure market success in an uncertain future. Finding itself facing this challenge, Legacy Health System, a Portland, Oregon-based IDS, undertook an innovative, long-range, strategic-planning initiative based on an evaluation of key market trends. Legacy discovered that it might benefit from making some changes in the way it approached its mission. These changes included focusing on specific customer segments, developing products and services aimed at those customers, and broadening physician and insurer relationships to enhance service and improve customers' access to health care.

Conservation archaeogenomics: ancient DNA and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Hofman, Courtney A; Rick, Torben C; Fleischer, Robert C; Maldonado, Jesús E

2015-09-01

There is growing consensus that we have entered the Anthropocene, a geologic epoch characterized by human domination of the ecosystems of the Earth. With the future uncertain, we are faced with understanding how global biodiversity will respond to anthropogenic perturbations. The archaeological record provides perspective on human-environment relations through time and across space. Ancient DNA (aDNA) analyses of plant and animal remains from archaeological sites are particularly useful for understanding past human-environment interactions, which can help guide conservation decisions during the environmental changes of the Anthropocene. Here, we define the emerging field of conservation archaeogenomics, which integrates archaeological and genomic data to generate baselines or benchmarks for scientists, managers, and policy-makers by evaluating climatic and human impacts on past, present, and future biodiversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a Robust Strategy for Implementing a Water Resources Master Plan in Lima, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, N.; Groves, D.; Bonzanigo, L.; Molina-Perez, E.

2015-12-01

Lima, the capital of Peru, faces significant water stress. It is the fifth largest metropolitan area in Latin America, and the second largest desert city in the world. The city has developed a Master Plan of major investment projects to improve water reliability until 2040. Yet key questions remain. Is the Master Plan sufficient for ensuring reliability in the face of deeply uncertain future climate change and demand? How do uncertain budget and project feasibility conditions shape Lima's options? How should the investments in the plan be prioritized, and can some be delayed? Lima is not alone in facing these planning challenges. Governments invest billions of dollars annually in long-term projects. Yet deep uncertainties pose formidable challenges to making near-term decisions that make long-term sense. The World Bank has spearheaded a community of practice on methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMU). This pilot project in Peru is the first in-depth application of DMU techniques to water supply planning in a developing country. It builds on prior analysis done in New York, California, and for the Colorado River, yet shows how these methods can be applied in regions which do not have as advanced data or tools available. The project combines three methods in particular -- Robust Decision Making, Decision Scaling, and Adaptive Pathways -- to help Lima implement its Master Plan in a way that is robust, no-regret, and adaptive. It was done in close partnership with SEDAPAL, the water utility company in Lima, and in coordination with other national WRM and meteorological agencies. This talk will: Present the planning challenges Lima and other cities face, including climate change Describe DMU methodologies and how they were applied in collaboration with SEDAPAL Summarize recommendations for achieving long-term water reliability in Lima Suggest how these methodologies can benefit other investment projects in developing countries.

Robust stabilization of the Space Station in the presence of inertia matrix uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang; Sunkel, John

1993-01-01

This paper presents a robust H-infinity full-state feedback control synthesis method for uncertain systems with D11 not equal to 0. The method is applied to the robust stabilization problem of the Space Station in the face of inertia matrix uncertainty. The control design objective is to find a robust controller that yields the largest stable hypercube in uncertain parameter space, while satisfying the nominal performance requirements. The significance of employing an uncertain plant model with D11 not equal 0 is demonstrated.

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

The Zika Virus Outbreak in Brazil: Knowledge Gaps and Challenges for Risk Reduction.

PubMed

Garcia Serpa Osorio-de-Castro, Claudia; Silva Miranda, Elaine; Machado de Freitas, Carlos; Rochel de Camargo, Kenneth; Cranmer, Hilarie Hartel

2017-06-01

We analyzed uncertainties and complexities of the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil, and we discuss risk reduction for future emergencies. We present the public health situation in Brazil and concurrent determinants of the epidemic and the knowledge gaps that persist despite building evidence from research, making public health decisions difficult. Brazil has adopted active measures, but producing desired outcomes may be uncertain because of partial or unavailable information. Reducing population group vulnerabilities and acting on environmental issues are medium- to long-term measures. Simultaneously dealing with information gaps, uncontrolled disease spread, and vulnerabilities is a new risk scenario and must be approached decisively to face emerging biothreats.

Perspectives on orchid conservation in botanic gardens.

PubMed

Swarts, Nigel D; Dixon, Kingsley W

2009-11-01

Orchids, one of the largest families of flowering plants, face an uncertain future through overexploitation, habitat loss and impacts of climate change. With their intricate abiotic and biotic dependencies, orchids typify the plight of global plant resources and, thus, provide ideal model species for ecological tracking and focussing conservation programs. Botanic gardens worldwide have traditionally been major centres of excellence in orchid horticulture, research and conservation as orchids generate wide public and educational appeal. Here, we highlight the role of botanic gardens in areas key to orchid conservation. With pristine habitats under threat globally, the challenge for orchid conservation programs will ultimately depend upon developing ecological restoration technologies, whereby orchids are reinstated into sustainably restored habitats.

"Put on a Happy Face"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Michael

2004-01-01

All evaluators face the challenge of striving to adhere to the highest possible standards of ethical conduct. Translating the AEA's Guiding Principles and the Joint Committee's Program Evaluation Standards into everyday practice, however, can be a complex, uncertain, and frustrating endeavor. Moreover, acting in an ethical fashion can require…

Data Farming and the Exploration of Inter-Agency, Inter-Disciplinary, and International "What If?" Questions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Steve; Horne, Gary; Meyer, Ted; Triola, Larry

2012-01-01

Data farming uses simulation modeling, high performance computing, and analysis to examine questions of interest with large possibility spaces.This methodology allows for the examination of whole landscapes of potential outcomes and provides the capability of executing enough experiments so that outlets might be captured and examined for insights. This capability may be quite informative when used to examine the plethora of "What if?" questions that result when examining potential scenarios that our forces may face in the uncertain world of the future. Many of theses scenarios most certainly will be challenging and solutions may depend on interagency and international collaboration as well as the need for inter-disciplinary scientific inquiry preceding these events. In this paper, we describe data farming and illustrate it in the context of application to questions inherent to military decision-making as we consider alternate future scenarios.

The Center Will Sell Itself...and Other Child Care Marketing Myths.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wassom, Julie

1994-01-01

Notes that, with the changing job market, uncertain economy, increased competition, and higher parent expectations, child care center directors face new marketing challenges. This article discusses seven child care marketing myths and offers marketing strategies to child care directors facing potential drops or fluctuations in center enrollment.…

Governing through time: preparing for future threats to health and security.

PubMed

Samimian-Darash, Limor

2011-09-01

During preparations for the Second Gulf War, Israel considered universal smallpox vaccination. In doing so, it faced a problem: how to legitimise carrying out a security action against an uncertain future danger (smallpox pandemic), when this action carried specific, known risks (vaccine complications). To solve this problem, the Israeli preparedness system created a new domain through which the security action could reach its goal with minimum risk: first responders (a group of medical personnel and security forces). First-responder vaccination represents a shift in the form of 'securing health' and in the governmental technology applied to this goal, in which past, present, and future occurrences are governed to enable the execution of a security action. Through this practice, risks are not located in the present or in the future but in a 'shared' temporal space and thus can be seen as existing simultaneously. Preparedness for emerging future biological events, then, involves more than questioning how the future is contingent on the present and how the present is contingent on the future's perception; it also recognises the need for a new time positioning that allows operating on both present and future risks simultaneously. Governing these risks, then, means governing through time. © 2011 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Socio-Hydrology Modelling for an Uncertain Future, with Examples from the USA and Canada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology,and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, engagement, and new knowledge about the science-policy interface. This paper demonstrates how policy decisions and human behavior can be better integrated into climate and hydrological models to improve their usefulness for support in decision making. Examples from the Southwest USA and Western Canada highlight uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and critical tradeoffs facing water decision makers in the face of rapidly changing environmental and societal conditions. Irreducible uncertainties in downscaled climate and hydrological models limit the usefulness of climate-driven, predict-and-plan methods of water resource planning and management. Thus, it is argued that such methods should be replaced by approaches that use exploratory modelling, scenario planning, and risk assessment in which the emphasis is on managing uncertainty rather than on reducing it.

Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

EPA Science Inventory

On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

2013-01-01

Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Strategy under uncertainty.

PubMed

Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

1997-01-01

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

Statement Testimony of The Honorable Zachary J. Lemnios Director, Defense Research and Engineering Before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-23

nationwide virtual science libary adapted for Afghanistan’s needs. Prepare for an Uncertain Future In preparing for an uncertain future, a...to assess the military implications of the ubiquitous availability of high performance analog, digital , electro-optical, radio frequency and signal

Robust fuel- and time-optimal control of uncertain flexible space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Sinha, Ravi; Sunkel, John; Cox, Ken

1993-01-01

The problem of computing open-loop, fuel- and time-optimal control inputs for flexible space structures in the face of modeling uncertainty is investigated. Robustified, fuel- and time-optimal pulse sequences are obtained by solving a constrained optimization problem subject to robustness constraints. It is shown that 'bang-off-bang' pulse sequences with a finite number of switchings provide a practical tradeoff among the maneuvering time, fuel consumption, and performance robustness of uncertain flexible space structures.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Flexibility and Adaptive Capacity in Flood Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiFrancesco, K.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

Discussions around adapting water management systems to future changes often state the need to increase system flexibility. Intuitively, a flexible, easily modifiable system seems desirable when faced with a wide range of uncertain, but plausible future conditions. Yet, despite the frequent use of the terms flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what makes one system more flexible than another, or the extent to which flexibility increases adaptive capacity. This study applies a methodology for assessing the inherent flexibility of the structural and non-structural components of flood management systems using original flexibility metrics in the categories of: slack, intensity, connectivity, adjustability, and coordination. We use these metrics to assess the flexibility of three sub-systems within the Sacramento Valley flood management system in California, USA under current system conditions as well as with proposed management actions in place. We then assess the range of hydrologic conditions under which each sub-system can meet flood risk targets in order to determine whether more flexible systems are also more robust and able to perform over a wider range of hydrologic conditions. In doing so, we identify flexible characteristics of flood management systems that enhance the ability of the system to preform over a wide range of conditions making them better suited to adapt to an uncertain hydrologic future. We find that the flexibility characteristics that increase the range of conditions under which the system can meet performance goals varies depending on whether the region is considered urban, rural, or a small community. In some cases, a decrease in certain flexibility characteristics is associated with an increase in robustness, indicating that more flexibility is not always desirable. Future work will assess the transferability of these results to other regions and systems.

Water supply infrastructure planning under multiple uncertainties: A differentiated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

2017-12-01

Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply. Supply uncertainty arises from short-term climate variability and long-term climate change as well as uncertainty in groundwater availability. Social and economic uncertainties - such as sectoral competition for water, food and energy security, urbanization, and environmental protection - compound physical uncertainty. Further, the varying risk aversion of stakeholders and water managers makes it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments to reduce risk. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they can be updated over time by collecting additional information, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are "deep" uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. Based on this, we apply a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multi-stage decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. In light of these uncertainties and the investment costs of large infrastructure, we propose the assessment of staged, modular infrastructure and information updating as a hedge against risk. We apply this framework to cases in Melbourne, Australia and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Melbourne is a surface water system facing uncertain population growth and variable rainfall and runoff. A severe drought from 1997 to 2009 prompted investment in a 150 MCM/y reverse osmosis desalination plan with a capital cost of 3.5 billion. Our analysis shows that flexible design in which a smaller portion of capacity is developed initially with the option to add modular capacity in the future can mitigate uncertainty and reduce the expected lifetime costs by up to 1 billion. In Riyadh, urban water use relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination. Intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use will lead to lowering of the water table in the aquifer at rapid but uncertain rates due to poor groundwater characterization. We assess the potential for additional groundwater data collection and a flexible infrastructure approach similar to that in Melbourne to mitigate risk.

Abandoned mines, mountain sports, and climate variability: Implications for the Colorado tourism economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, Andrew; McKnight, Diane; Wyatt, Lane

Until recently, the allure of the mountains in the American West was primarily extractive, for commodities like timber, water, and precious metals [Baron et. al., 2000]. Now, the effective marketing and management of the regions “white gold” by the ski industry has stimulated significant recreation-related growth and development in the last several decades. Under an uncertain climatic future, however, these burgeoning industries, and the communities that have grown up in relation to them, are facing water quality constraints inherited from historical mining practices, causing mountain water to become a limited resource more valuable than the precious metals of the past. Further, the current lack of proven, in-situ approaches for addressing distributed, mining waste pollution of fresh water complicates potential remediation efforts.

Biomass power in transition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, D.K.

1996-12-31

Electricity production from biomass fuel has been hailed in recent years as an environmentally acceptable energy source that delivers on its promise of economically viable renewable energy. A Wall Street Journal article from three years ago proclaimed wood to be {open_quotes}moving ahead of costly solar panels and wind turbines as the leading renewable energy alternative to air-fouling fossils fuels and scary nuclear plants.{close_quotes} Biomass fuel largely means wood; about 90% of biomass generated electricity comes from burning waste wood, the remainder from agricultural wastes. Biomass power now faces an uncertain future. The maturing of the cogeneration and independent power plantmore » market, restructuring of the electric industry, and technological advances with power equipment firing other fuels have placed biomass power in a competitive disadvantage with other power sources.« less

Application of grey system theory in telecare.

PubMed

Huang, Jui-Chen

2011-05-01

As a superiority to conventional statistical models, grey models require only a limited amount of data to estimate the behaviour of unknown systems. Grey system theory can be used in the effective factor assessment, and used in large samples where data are not available or uncertain whether the data was representative. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to adopt grey system theory to discuss older adult users' opinions on the telecare and its effect on their quality of life. This study surveyed the older adult users of Taiwan as subjects. User perception of the telecare services was collected via face-to-face interview. The grey system theory was used to examine the model. The results showed that the overall living quality has the greatest effect on the perceived effects of the telecare on their quality of life, followed by the acquisition of information, accessibility of medical care services, and safety. This finding may serve as a reference to future studies and it also shows that the grey system theory is a feasible analysis method. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Management: Finding the Right Balance Between Risk and Opportunity to Build Trust and Create Value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, S.; Susskind, L.

2012-12-01

Most difficulties in water management are the product of rigid assumptions about how water ought to be allocated in the face of ever-increasing demand and growing uncertainty. When stakeholders face contending water claims, one of the biggest obstacles to reaching agreement is uncertainty. Specifically, there are three types of uncertainty that need to be addressed: uncertainty of information, uncertainty of action and uncertainty of perception. All three shape water management decisions. Contrary to traditional approaches, we argue that management of uncertainty needs to include both risks and opportunities. When parties treat water as a flexible rather than a fixed resource, opportunities to create value can be invented. When they use the right processes and mechanisms to enhance trust, even parties in conflict can reach agreements that satisfy their competing water needs and interests simultaneously. Using examples from several boundary crossing water cases we will show how this balance between risks and opportunities can be found to manage water resources for an uncertain future.

Long-term care over an uncertain future: what can current retirees expect?

PubMed

Kemper, Peter; Komisar, Harriet L; Alecxih, Lisa

The leading edge of the baby boom generation is nearing retirement and facing uncertainty about its need for long-term care (LTC). Using a microsimulation model, this analysis projected that people currently turning age 65 will need LTC for three years on average. An important share of needed care will be covered by public programs and some private insurance, but much of the care will be an uninsured private responsibility of individuals and their families--a responsibility that will be distributed unequally. While over a third of those now turning 65 are projected to never receive family care, three out of 10 will rely on family care for more than two years. Similarly, half of people turning 65 will have no private out-of-pocket expenditures for LTC, while more than one in 20 are projected to spend $100,000 or more of their own money (in present discounted value). Policy debate that focuses only on income security and acute care--and the corresponding Social Security and Medicare programs--misses the third, largely private, risk that retirees face: that of needing LTC.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

A shifting mosaic of scholarly publishing, scientific delivery, and future impact changing the face of learned societies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leslie, David M.

2007-01-01

Nonprofit scientific societies hope that their activities advance their particular mission and impact their profession and, in the broadest sense, humanity in positive ways. The digital age has provided unprecedented mechanisms to enhance the delivery of science to the world. The marketplace of scientific publishing is a rapidly shifting mosaic of challenges and opportunities, and the responses of nonprofit and commercial publishers vary widely, but their outcomes are still uncertain. The response of the American Society of Mammalogists (ASM) provides an example of how a relatively small society has altered its scientific delivery to enhance member benefits while attempting to sustain its economic viability. Since 2000, ASM has moved from a self-publishing, break-even, print-only model to a copublishing agreement with a commercial publisher (Alliance Communications Group, a division of Allen Press, Inc., Lawrence, Kansas), which now offers members various print and electronic options and generates a shared royalty. Although it is too early to gauge the economic impact of these changes, the ASM leadership clearly attempted to signal its desire for members to view their society as a package of opportunities for edification and involvement rather than just a provider of serial subscriptions. Future challenges facing nonprofit scientific societies include open access, fiscal realities, archiving of publications, and scientific and societal impact; future opportunities include a strengthening of member responsibilities and professionalism, development of data registries to enhance scientific progress, and bundling of like societies. The manner in which nonprofit scientific societies respond to these challenges and opportunities will no doubt affect their sustainability and future impact. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity.

PubMed

Neta, Maital; Cantelon, Julie; Haga, Zachary; Mahoney, Caroline R; Taylor, Holly A; Davis, F Caroline

2017-12-01

Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

Internationalization for an Uncertain Future: Tensions, Paradoxes, and Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Sharon

2017-01-01

As higher education is increasingly called upon to play a central role in addressing the challenges and crises of today's complex, uncertain, and volatile world, internationalization efforts are intensifying. Emphasizing higher education as a space for critically-informed, socially accountable, and open-ended conversations about alternative…

Community health politics: transition of the Seattle USPHS Hospital.

PubMed Central

Hughes, R G; Tompkins, R K

1984-01-01

To achieve transition of the Seattle US Public Health Service Hospital from federal to local control, the community overcame large obstacles; the most difficult was federal preference for closing the hospital rather than incurring additional costs essential for transition. The Washington State Congressional Delegation, local officials, hospital staff, patients and numerous community volunteers--individuals and private organizations--worked together to save the hospital and secure federal resources for its transition. Going through the transition influenced the hospital as it developed a new corporate structure, designed new administrative systems, and prepared to operate in a new environment while facing an uncertain future. The hospital has continued to cope with issues arising from transition, such as operating in a competitive context while reaffirming its community service heritage. Despite the difficulties of transition, Seattle preserved a valuable community health resource. PMID:6547029

The coming fiscal crisis: nephrology in the line of fire.

PubMed

Andersen, Martin J; Friedman, Allon N

2013-07-01

Nephrologists in the United States face a very uncertain economic future. The astronomical federal debt and unfunded liability burden of Medicare combined with the aging population will place unprecedented strain on the health care sector. To address these fundamental problems, it is conceivable that the federal government will ultimately institute rationing and other budget-cutting measures to rein in costs of ESRD care, which is generously funded relative to other chronic illnesses. Therefore, nephrologists should expect implementation of cost-cutting measures, such age-based rationing, mandated delayed dialysis and home therapies, compensated organ donation, and a shift in research priorities from the dialysis to the predialysis patient population. Nephrologists also need to recognize that these changes, which are geared toward the population level, may make it more difficult to advocate effectively for the needs of individual patients.

America's changing attitudes toward homosexuality, civil unions, and same-gender marriage: 1977-2004.

PubMed

Avery, Alison; Chase, Justin; Johansson, Linda; Litvak, Samantha; Montero, Darrel; Wydra, Michael

2007-01-01

On May 17, 2004, Massachusetts became the first state to legalize same-gender marriage. From California to Missouri, nearly all states now face legislative challenges to the once firmly entrenched notion that marriage can only exist between a man and a woman. Public opinion polls conducted from 1977 to 2004 found that Americans' attitudes toward gay men and lesbians and marriages or civil unions for same-gender couples have evolved. Opposition persists, however. The most recent data indicate support for some legal recognition of gay and lesbian couples, but most Americans favor civil unions over same-gender marriages. Although the future of civil unions and same-gender marriages remains uncertain, social workers can serve gay and lesbian clients and their families best by staying informed of the attendant legal, social, and policy issues.

Community health politics: transition of the Seattle USPHS Hospital.

PubMed

Hughes, R G; Tompkins, R K

1984-06-01

To achieve transition of the Seattle US Public Health Service Hospital from federal to local control, the community overcame large obstacles; the most difficult was federal preference for closing the hospital rather than incurring additional costs essential for transition. The Washington State Congressional Delegation, local officials, hospital staff, patients and numerous community volunteers--individuals and private organizations--worked together to save the hospital and secure federal resources for its transition. Going through the transition influenced the hospital as it developed a new corporate structure, designed new administrative systems, and prepared to operate in a new environment while facing an uncertain future. The hospital has continued to cope with issues arising from transition, such as operating in a competitive context while reaffirming its community service heritage. Despite the difficulties of transition, Seattle preserved a valuable community health resource.

Cancer in a dyadic context: older couples' negotiation of ambiguity and search for meaning at the end of life.

PubMed

Gardner, Daniel S

2008-01-01

Ambiguity in the dying experience can be a major source of stress for older couples who must often balance the provision of care with respect for autonomy, aggressive treatment with quality-of-life, and individual with dyadic understandings and preferences. This study explores patterns of relationship, support, and communication in married or partnered couples where one partner is diagnosed with advanced and terminal cancer. Thirty-five older spousal/partner dyads participated in focused, semistructured interviews about relational aspects of their illness experiences. Faced with often uncertain and ambiguous circumstances, cancer patients and their partner caregivers describe the individual and dyadic processes that they have engaged in as they approach the end of life. Implications are highlighted for future research and practice with older adult couples at the end of life.

Intelligent rover decision-making in response to exogenous events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chouinard, C.; Estlin, T.; Gaines, D.; Fisher, F.

2005-01-01

This paper presents an introduction to the CLEAR system which performs rover command generation and re-planning, the challenges faced maintaining domain specific information in an uncertain environment, and the successes demonstrated with several methods of system testing.

Planning and Design of Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.

2014-12-01

Regional and local water supplies and demands are impacted by global and national systems: climate, economics, population and energy as well as policies: development, energy, and environmental. These drivers can result in complex interactions that require deeper understanding in order to provide actionable information for water planners and stakeholders to develop strategic plans in the face of a changing and growing world. To add more complexity to this issue is the fact that all these drivers are uncertain and the type of uncertainty is not the same. This talk will address approaches to Water Resource Planning at sub-national water regions, national levels and trans-boundary river basins under a non-stationary hydro-climatic future. Additionally the talk will address the design of specific water resource projects such as reservoirs and hydroplants that are being designed now but will operate far in the future when the hydro-climatology will be very different. Examples will be drawn from recent work in Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and North America and some insights and outstanding questions will be presented.

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Sammy L.

2010-01-01

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Complementary education for healthcare personnel: a strategy to increase hospital performance.

PubMed

Ghanem, Mohamed

2014-01-01

The German healthcare system is facing ongoing radical change and development. The increasing tendency to urge hospitals and medical staff to work in a profit-oriented way constitute among other factors clear present and future challenges. Physicians and surgeons in particular increasingly complain of increasing stress attributed to measures aiming at cost reduction in hospitals. The highest priority must always be patient satisfaction and the delivery of good medical and human service. Problem description: The health care market in Germany has become an increasingly complex business with uncertain and unpredictable future events. Strategic planning has to enable hospitals to quickly and flexibly adapt strategies to changes in the environment that become essential to their success. The most important task is to develop a strategy that can be applied with success in all possible future scenarios. This is known as the core strategy. The core strategy for hospitals in Germany is complementary education of the medical staff as well as top management. Accordingly, courses, workshops or even part-time graduate or postgraduate education in business and economics are recommended for the medical staff. As far as non-medical hospital executives are concerned, there is no better way than to host them in a hospital department for a period of 6-12 months. This paves the way for understanding and accepting each others' opinion which increases hospital performance. Proper and complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals is recommended as the core strategy. This harmonizes both professional medical and managerial efforts with a synergy effect that allows soundly facing the increasingly challenging environment of the health care sector in general and in hospitals in particular.

Ethical Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Michael

2004-01-01

All evaluators face the challenge of striving to adhere to the highest possible standards of ethical conduct. Translating the AEA's Guiding Principles and the Joint Committee's Program Evaluation Standards into everyday practice, however, can be a complex, uncertain, and frustrating endeavor. Moreover, acting in an ethical fashion can require…

Making certain progress in uncertain times : the Transportation Research Board's 2008 Field Visit Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Each year, TRBs Technical Activities Division staff visit state departments of transportation, as well as selected universities, transit and other modal agencies, and industry organizations, to determine the issues they are facing and how TRB can ...

Psychological Counseling of Female Fertility Preservation Patients

PubMed Central

Lawson, Angela K.; Klock, Susan C.; Pavone, Mary Ellen; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer; Smith, Kristin N.; Kazer, Ralph R.

2015-01-01

Young cancer patients are increasingly interested in preserving their fertility prior to undergoing gonadotoxic therapies. Although the medical safety and treatment protocols for fertility preservation have been well documented, limited research has addressed the emotional issues which arise in fertility preservation patients. We briefly review the literature on the psychosocial issues in adult female fertility preservation treatment and describe our experiences within this patient population patient. Our findings suggest that several important issues to be addressed during the psychological counseling of adult female fertility preservation patients include: 1) pre-existing psychological distress in patients undergoing treatment, 2) choice of fertility preservation strategy in the face of an uncertain relationship future, 3) decision making regarding use of third party reproduction (e.g., sperm/egg donation, gestational surrogacy), 4) treatment expectations regarding pregnancy and miscarriage, 5) ethical issues related to treatment including the creation, cryopreservation, and disposition of embryos/oocytes, and 6) decision regret from patients who declined fertility preservation. PMID:25996581

Mathematical modeling and pharmaceutical pricing: analyses used to inform in-licensing and developmental go/No-Go decisions.

PubMed

Vernon, John A; Hughen, W Keener; Johnson, Scott J

2005-05-01

In the face of significant real healthcare cost inflation, pressured budgets, and ongoing launches of myriad technology of uncertain value, payers have formalized new valuation techniques that represent a barrier to entry for drugs. Cost-effectiveness analysis predominates among these methods, which involves differencing a new technological intervention's marginal costs and benefits with a comparator's, and comparing the resulting ratio to a payer's willingness-to-pay threshold. In this paper we describe how firms are able to model the feasible range of future product prices when making in-licensing and developmental Go/No-Go decisions by considering payers' use of the cost-effectiveness method. We illustrate this analytic method with a simple deterministic example and then incorporate stochastic assumptions using both analytic and simulation methods. Using this strategic approach, firms may reduce product development and in-licensing risk.

San Sebastián: the social and political effects of sugar mill closure in Mexico.

PubMed

Powell, Kathy

2007-01-01

Mexico's sugar mills face an uncertain future: the closure of San Sebastián may well presage others if the climate for sugar production on national and international levels does not improve. While the continued squeezing of small cane producers reflects processes affecting peasant agriculture generally in Mexico, and indeed beyond, the fate of the mill workers made redundant when the mill closed similarly mirrors broad tendencies in labor in both the developed and developing world under neoliberalism. Former workers fell back upon personal, family, and community resources by migrating to the U.S. or locally reconstructing livelihoods characterized by a reduction in income, security, and access to social benefits. This article reports on the impact of the mill closure on the livelihoods of former mill worker families in the community of San Sebastián and offers some observations on their responses to the situation.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

Preparing Teachers for Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floden, Robert E.; Clark, Christopher M.

An examination of the various ways in which teaching is uncertain and how uncertainty pervades teachers' lives points out that teachers face uncertainties in their instructional content, ranging from difficult concepts, to unclarity about how teaching might be improved. These forms of uncertainty undermine teachers' authority, creating situations…

Resource utilization and outcomes management: opportunities for the entrepreneurial pathologist.

PubMed

Vance, R P

1997-01-01

Pathologists and laboratory managers are facing an increasingly uncertain place in the emerging managed care marketplace. Among the various opportunities available is outcomes management. The role of benchmarking in outcomes management and the initial steps in developing outcomes management programs are presented.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1991-01-01

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

Searching for Interference Effects in Learning New Face-Name Associations

PubMed Central

James, Lori E.; Tauber, Sarah K.; McMahan, Ethan A.; Oberle, Shalyn; Martinez, Ashley P.; Fogler, Kethera A.

2012-01-01

In 3 experiments, we attempted to increase interference using experimental manipulations in a face-name learning paradigm. All experiments included young and older adult participants because aging is associated with increases in both susceptibility to interference and difficulty in learning face-name associations. None of the experiments produced interference for either age group: The inclusion of confusable (i.e., ambiguous) names and occupations, having to learn an additional piece of information in association with each face, and requiring participants to guess when uncertain all failed to negatively impact name learning. Interference does not appear to be the critical mechanism underlying the difficulty of learning proper names, and it cannot account for older adults’ disproportionate decline in name-learning ability. PMID:22292565

Mystic mountain: an educational alternative futures wildland planning game

Treesearch

Edward C. Thor; James L. Creighton

1978-01-01

Alternative futures planning is a generic name for a number of planning approaches which recognize that the future is uncertain. There is not one future, preordained and universally known, but rather a variety of possible futures, any one of which may occur. Mystic Mountain is an educational game which teaches wildland planners and managers important concepts in...

Dealing with uncertainty in modeling intermittent water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Rycroft, C.; Wilkening, J.

2015-12-01

Intermittency in urban water supply affects hundreds of millions of people in cities around the world, impacting water quality and infrastructure. Building on previous work to dynamically model the transient flows in water distribution networks undergoing frequent filling and emptying, we now consider the hydraulic implications of uncertain input data. Water distribution networks undergoing intermittent supply are often poorly mapped, and household metering frequently ranges from patchy to nonexistent. In the face of uncertain pipe material, pipe slope, network connectivity, and outflow, we investigate how uncertainty affects dynamical modeling results. We furthermore identify which parameters exert the greatest influence on uncertainty, helping to prioritize data collection.

Uncertainty is associated with increased selective attention and sustained stimulus processing.

PubMed

Dieterich, Raoul; Endrass, Tanja; Kathmann, Norbert

2016-06-01

Uncertainty about future threat has been found to be associated with an overestimation of threat probability and is hypothesized to elicit additional allocation of attention. We used event-related potentials to examine uncertainty-related dynamics in attentional allocation, exploiting brain potentials' high temporal resolution and sensitivity to attention. Thirty participants performed a picture-viewing task in which cues indicated the subsequent picture valence. A certain-neutral and a certain-aversive cue accurately predicted subsequent picture valence, whereas an uncertain cue did not. Participants overestimated the effective frequency of aversive pictures following the uncertain cue, both during and after the task, signifying expectancy and covariation biases, and they tended to express lower subjective valences for aversive pictures presented after the uncertain cue. Pictures elicited increased P2 and LPP amplitudes when their valence could not be predicted from the cue. For the LPP, this effect was more pronounced in response to neutral pictures. Uncertainty appears to enhance the engagement of early phasic and sustained attention for uncertainly cued targets. Thus, defensive motivation related to uncertainty about future threat elicits specific attentional dynamics implicating prioritization at various processing stages, especially for nonthreatening stimuli that tend to violate expectations.

Constructing Nanobusiness: The Role of Technology Framing in the Emergence of a Commercial Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aten, Kathryn Jeanette

2009-01-01

Entrepreneurs seeking to commercialize science-based technologies face considerable challenges including uncertain environments, policy makers and investors' ignorance, and public opposition and ethical concerns. Most research exploring the emergence of technologies assumes the existence of accepted uses or products, despite the fact that efforts…

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

Cornell University Library Distance Learning White Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Philip; Finlay, Constance; Cosgrave, Tony; McDonald, Peter

This report identifies potential issues that the Cornell University Library (CUL) might face in supporting distance learning, and recommends solutions. While the precise budgetary implications are uncertain, additional resources, services, and personnel will need to be accounted for in the cost of serving distance learners. The report addresses:…

Ethical Challenges Scenario: Youth Involvement in Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooksy, Leslie J.

2007-01-01

All evaluators face the challenge of striving to adhere to the highest possible standards of ethical conduct. Translating the AEA's Guiding Principles and the Joint Committee's Program Evaluation Standards into everyday practice, however, can be a complex, uncertain, and frustrating endeavor. Moreover, acting in an ethical fashion can require…

Adaptive proximate time-optimal servomechanisms - Continuous time case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Workman, M. L.; Kosut, R. L.; Franklin, G. F.

1987-01-01

A Proximate Time-Optimal Servo (PTOS) is developed, along with conditions for its stability. An algorithm is proposed for adapting the PTOS (APTOS) to improve performance in the face of uncertain plant parameters. Under ideal conditions APTOS is shown to be uniformly asymptotically stable. Simulation results demonstrate the predicted performance.

5 Ways Your Institution Can Be More Cost Effective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapovsky, Lucie

2012-01-01

College and university boards are well aware of the pressures facing their institutions today, ranging from diminished or uncertain financial support to competitors offering new and sometimes less-expensive educational services. To help meet those challenges, boards need to ask probing questions about all the possible ways their institutions can…

Leadership Training Program for Medical Staff in Belgium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claes, Neree; Brabanders, Valérie

2016-01-01

Today healthcare is facing many challenges in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment. There is a need to develop strong leaders who can cope with these challenges. This article describes the process of a leadership training program for healthcare professionals in Belgium (named "Clinical Leadership Program" or…

Higher Education's Coming Leadership Crisis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Appadurai, Arjun

2009-01-01

The full impact of the current recession on American higher education remains uncertain, but drops in applications, faculty autonomy and job security, frozen salaries and hiring processes, and scaling back of new facilities and programs are already being seen. American colleges face tough times ahead for teaching, research, and capital projects…

Funding the Plan: Integration of Strategic Planning and Resource Allocation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pagel, Richard T.

2011-01-01

California Community Colleges are facing increased accountability while at the same time experiencing reduced and uncertain state funding. When resources are not properly allocated there is waste, public criticism, and ultimately increased oversight. A review of the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges (ACCJC) sanction letters…

Innovation: Tougher than It Looks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sparks, Sarah D.

2011-01-01

Massive federal education competitions like the $650 million Investing in Innovation fund have heightened interest in practical education research, but even the most promising findings aimed at improving student learning face a long, uncertain path to become something more concrete and usable for the classroom. Unlike fields such as physics or…

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Future scenarios can be developed through a combination of modifications to the land-cover/use maps used to parameterize hydr...

"The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity": Correction.

PubMed

2018-04-01

Reports an error in "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity" by Maital Neta, Julie Cantelon, Zachary Haga, Caroline R. Mahoney, Holly A. Taylor and F. Caroline Davis ( Emotion , 2017[Dec], Vol 17[8], 1137-1143). In this article, the copyright attribution was incorrectly listed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license due to production-related error. The correct copyright should be "In the public domain." The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-40275-001.) Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The dynamic evolutionary history of genome size in North American woodland salamanders.

PubMed

Newman, Catherine E; Gregory, T Ryan; Austin, Christopher C

2017-04-01

The genus Plethodon is the most species-rich salamander genus in North America, and nearly half of its species face an uncertain future. It is also one of the most diverse families in terms of genome sizes, which range from 1C = 18.2 to 69.3 pg, or 5-20 times larger than the human genome. Large genome size in salamanders results in part from accumulation of transposable elements and is associated with various developmental and physiological traits. However, genome sizes have been reported for only 25% of the species of Plethodon (14 of 55). We collected genome size data for Plethodon serratus to supplement an ongoing phylogeographic study, reconstructed the evolutionary history of genome size in Plethodontidae, and inferred probable genome sizes for the 41 species missing empirical data. Results revealed multiple genome size changes in Plethodon: genomes of western Plethodon increased, whereas genomes of eastern Plethodon decreased, followed by additional decreases or subsequent increases. The estimated genome size of P. serratus was 21 pg. New understanding of variation in genome size evolution, along with genome size inferences for previously unstudied taxa, provide a foundation for future studies on the biology of plethodontid salamanders.

Info-Gap robustness pathway method for transitioning of urban drainage systems under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Zischg, Jonatan; Goncalves, Mariana L R; Bacchin, Taneha Kuzniecow; Leonhardt, Günther; Viklander, Maria; van Timmeren, Arjan; Rauch, Wolfgang; Sitzenfrei, Robert

2017-09-01

In the urban water cycle, there are different ways of handling stormwater runoff. Traditional systems mainly rely on underground piped, sometimes named 'gray' infrastructure. New and so-called 'green/blue' ambitions aim for treating and conveying the runoff at the surface. Such concepts are mainly based on ground infiltration and temporal storage. In this work a methodology to create and compare different planning alternatives for stormwater handling on their pathways to a desired system state is presented. Investigations are made to assess the system performance and robustness when facing the deeply uncertain spatial and temporal developments in the future urban fabric, including impacts caused by climate change, urbanization and other disruptive events, like shifts in the network layout and interactions of 'gray' and 'green/blue' structures. With the Info-Gap robustness pathway method, three planning alternatives are evaluated to identify critical performance levels at different stages over time. This novel methodology is applied to a real case study problem where a city relocation process takes place during the upcoming decades. In this case study it is shown that hybrid systems including green infrastructures are more robust with respect to future uncertainties, compared to traditional network design.

The science, information, and engineering needed to manage water availability and quality in 2050: Chapter 23

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

This chapter explores four water resources issues: 1) hydrologic variability, hazards, water supply and ecosystem preservation; 2) urban landscape design; 3) non-point source water quality, and 4) climate change, resiliency, and nonstationarity. It also considers what science, technology, and engineering practice may be needed in the coming decades to sustain water supplies and ecosystems in the face of increasing stresses from a growing demand for water. Dealing with these four water resource issues in the highly uncertain future would will demand predictive models that are rooted in real-world data. In a non-stationary world, continuity of observations is crucial. All watersheds are influenced by human actions through changes in land use, water use, and climate. The focus of water planning and management between today and 2050 will depend more than ever on collection and analysis of long-term data to learn about the evolving state of the system, understanding ecosystem processes in the water and on the landscape, and finding innovative ways to manage water as a shared resource. This includes sharing water with our neighbors on the landscape, sharing with the other species that depend on water, and sharing with future generations.

Multimodal network models for robust transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Since transportation infrastructure projects have a lifetime of many decades, project developers must consider : not only the current demand for the project but also the future demand. Future demand is of course uncertain and should : be treated as s...

Identifying Model-Based Reconfiguration Goals through Functional Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benazera, Emmanuel; Trave-Massuyes, Louise

2004-01-01

Model-based diagnosis is now advanced to the point autonomous systems face some uncertain and faulty situations with success. The next step toward more autonomy is to have the system recovering itself after faults occur, a process known as model-based reconfiguration. After faults occur, given a prediction of the nominal behavior of the system and the result of the diagnosis operation, this paper details how to automatically determine the functional deficiencies of the system. These deficiencies are characterized in the case of uncertain state estimates. A methodology is then presented to determine the reconfiguration goals based on the deficiencies. Finally, a recovery process interleaves planning and model predictive control to restore the functionalities in prioritized order.

Youth and the Workplace: Second-Chance Programs and the Hard-to-Serve.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Thomas J.; And Others

The task of addressing the complex and deeply rooted problems faced by the nation's at-risk youth is one that largely falls outside the scope of traditional institutions. Investment in the development and operation of "second-chance" education and employment programs has historically been inadequate, haphazard, and uncertain. The gains…

When ranchers don't know what to do: Care and rangeland management decision-making under uncertainity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This presentation asks: how do ranchers know what to do when they are faced with a decision under high levels of complexity and uncertainty? In the semi-arid Western Great Plains of North America, rancher decisions have implications for rangeland ecosystems and for livelihoods. Adaptive management r...

Hold It! The Influence of Lingering Rewards on Choice Diversification and Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulze, Christin; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Newell, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Learning to choose adaptively when faced with uncertain and variable outcomes is a central challenge for decision makers. This study examines repeated choice in dynamic probability learning tasks in which outcome probabilities changed either as a function of the choices participants made or independently of those choices. This presence/absence of…

Discourse Appropriation and Category Boundary Work: Casual Teachers in the Market

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charteris, Jennifer; Jenkins, Kathryn; Jones, Marguerite; Bannister-Tyrrell, Michelle

2017-01-01

With the increasing casualisation of the teacher labour force, there is little written on the experiences of casual teachers and the challenges they face in brokering professional identities within constantly shifting and uncertain work contexts. Being a category bound casual teacher (a product of category boundary work) is a complex subject…

Philanthropy as a Source to Finance Higher Education. A Synthesis Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wurster, Stanley R.

This paper first examines the economics of higher education and the five economic problems that face institutions of higher learning: inflation, expansion of educational services, fluctuating student enrollments, need for an enlarged and modernized capital plant, and uncertain sources of income. The paper then reviews the trends and potential of…

Net returns and risk for cover crop use as an integrated pest management practice in Alabama cotton production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton producers in Alabama are faced with uncertain yields and prices, as well as increasing weed management challenges such as glyphosate resistant weeds. By utilizing a production system that will reduce risk while maintaining yield, cotton production may be economically sustainable into the futu...

"It's an Important Moment for Colleges"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanistreet, Paul

2011-01-01

These are uncertain times for English further education. With the sector facing a 25 per cent cut in public funding over four years, the challenges are immense, but there are opportunities too, as institutions prepare for the introduction of tuition fee loans for study above Level 3 for students aged 24 and over, and ministers stress their…

Post-Observation Conferences with Bilingual Pre-Service Teachers: Revoicing and Rehearsing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wall, Dorothy J.; Hurie, Andrew H.

2017-01-01

Pre-service teachers need support in developing their teacher identities as they navigate the uncertain and complex terrain of student teaching and face the pressures of high-stakes accountability. This support is particularly important for bilingual pre-service teachers as they negotiate the many complexities of the bilingual classroom, and as…

Teaching Vocal Canons: A Dare and a Chair

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hess, Kenneth

2006-01-01

Many elementary vocal teachers experience a certain amount of trepidation about teaching students to sing in harmony. In the general music classroom, they face uncertain singers, inaccurate singers, and uninterested or defiant singers, as well as eager children who sing with appropriate head tone and good intonation. Often this colorful mix makes…

Behavior under the Microscope: Increasing the Resolution of Our Experimental Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, David C.

2010-01-01

Behavior analysis has exploited conceptual tools whose experimental validity has been amply demonstrated, but their relevance to large-scale and fine-grained behavioral phenomena remains uncertain, because the experimental analysis of these domains faces formidable obstacles of measurement and control. In this essay I suggest that, at least at the…

The doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for uncertain clinical decisions.

PubMed

Diamond-Brown, Lauren

2016-06-01

Medical uncertainty is a well-recognized problem in healthcare, yet how doctors make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains to be understood. This article draws on interdisciplinary literature on uncertainty and physician decision-making to examine a specific physician response to uncertainty: using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit. Additionally, I ask what happens to this process when the doctor-patient relationship becomes fragmented. I answer these questions by examining obstetrician-gynecologists' narratives regarding how they make decisions when faced with uncertainty in childbirth. Between 2013 and 2014, I performed 21 semi-structured interviews with obstetricians in the United States. Obstetricians were selected to maximize variation in relevant physician, hospital, and practice characteristics. I began with grounded theory and moved to analytical coding of themes in relation to relevant literature. My analysis renders it evident that some physicians use the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for dealing with uncertainty. I analyze how this process varies for physicians in different models of care by comparing doctors' experiences in models with continuous versus fragmented doctor-patient relationships. My key findings are that obstetricians in both models appealed to the ideal of patient-centered decision-making to cope with uncertain decisions, but in practice physicians in fragmented care faced a number of challenges to using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for decision-making. These challenges led to additional uncertainties and in some cases to poor outcomes for doctors and/or patients; they also raised concerns about the reproduction of inequality. Thus organization of care delivery mitigates the efficacy of doctors' use of the doctor-patient relationship toolkit for uncertain decisions. These findings have implications for theorizing about decision-making under conditions of medical uncertainty, for understanding how the doctor-patient relationship and model of care affect physician decision-making, and for forming policy on the optimal structure of medical work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

2010-05-01

Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes

PubMed Central

Cline, Timothy J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hilborn, Ray

2017-01-01

Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures. PMID:28091534

Salton Sea Ecosystem Monitoring Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, A. Keith; Ricca, Mark A.; Meckstroth, Anne; Spring, Sarah E.

2009-01-01

The Salton Sea is critically important for wintering and breeding waterbirds, but faces an uncertain future due to water delivery reductions imposed by the Interstate and Federal Quantification Settlement Agreement of 2003. The current preferred alternative for wetland restoration at the Salton Sea is saline habitat impoundments created to mitigate the anticipated loss of wetland habitat. In 2006, a 50-hectare experimental complex that consisted of four inter-connected, shallow water saline habitat ponds (SHP) was constructed at the southeastern shoreline of the Salton Sea and flooded with blended waters from the Alamo River and Salton Sea. The present study evaluated ecological risks and benefits of the SHP concept prior to widespread restoration actions. This study was designed to evaluate (1) baseline chemical, nutrient, and contaminant measures from physical and biological constituents, (2) aquatic invertebrate community structure and colonization patterns, and (3) productivity of and contaminant risks to nesting waterbirds at the SHP. These factors were evaluated and compared with those of nearby waterbird habitat, that is, reference sites.

Managed care: the US experience.

PubMed Central

Sekhri, N. K.

2000-01-01

This article provides an overview of managed health care in the USA--what has been achieved and what has not--and some lessons for policy-makers in other parts of the world. Although the backlash by consumers and providers makes the future of managed care in the USA uncertain, the evidence shows that it has had a positive effect on stemming the rate of growth of health care spending, without a negative effect on quality. More importantly, it has spawned innovative technologies that are not dependent on the US market environment, but can be applied in public and private systems globally. Active purchasing tools that incorporate disease management programmes, performance measurement report cards, and alignment of incentives between purchasers and providers respond to key issues facing health care reform in many countries. Selective adoption of these tools may be even more relevant in single payer systems than in the fragmented, voluntary US insurance market where they can be applied more systematically with lower transaction costs and where their effects can be measured more precisely. PMID:10916920

Large-Scale Compute-Intensive Analysis via a Combined In-situ and Co-scheduling Workflow Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Messer, Bronson; Sewell, Christopher; Heitmann, Katrin

2015-01-01

Large-scale simulations can produce tens of terabytes of data per analysis cycle, complicating and limiting the efficiency of workflows. Traditionally, outputs are stored on the file system and analyzed in post-processing. With the rapidly increasing size and complexity of simulations, this approach faces an uncertain future. Trending techniques consist of performing the analysis in situ, utilizing the same resources as the simulation, and/or off-loading subsets of the data to a compute-intensive analysis system. We introduce an analysis framework developed for HACC, a cosmological N-body code, that uses both in situ and co-scheduling approaches for handling Petabyte-size outputs. An initial inmore » situ step is used to reduce the amount of data to be analyzed, and to separate out the data-intensive tasks handled off-line. The analysis routines are implemented using the PISTON/VTK-m framework, allowing a single implementation of an algorithm that simultaneously targets a variety of GPU, multi-core, and many-core architectures.« less

Carbon sequestration and its role in the global carbon cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPherson, Brian J.; Sundquist, Eric T.

2009-01-01

For carbon sequestration the issues of monitoring, risk assessment, and verification of carbon content and storage efficacy are perhaps the most uncertain. Yet these issues are also the most critical challenges facing the broader context of carbon sequestration as a means for addressing climate change. In response to these challenges, Carbon Sequestration and Its Role in the Global Carbon Cycle presents current perspectives and research that combine five major areas: • The global carbon cycle and verification and assessment of global carbon sources and sinks • Potential capacity and temporal/spatial scales of terrestrial, oceanic, and geologic carbon storage • Assessing risks and benefits associated with terrestrial, oceanic, and geologic carbon storage • Predicting, monitoring, and verifying effectiveness of different forms of carbon storage • Suggested new CO2 sequestration research and management paradigms for the future. The volume is based on a Chapman Conference and will appeal to the rapidly growing group of scientists and engineers examining methods for deliberate carbon sequestration through storage in plants, soils, the oceans, and geological repositories.

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Uncertain behaviours of integrated circuits improve computational performance.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Chihiro; Yamaoka, Masanao; Hayashi, Masato; Okuyama, Takuya; Aoki, Hidetaka; Kawarabayashi, Ken-ichi; Mizuno, Hiroyuki

2015-11-20

Improvements to the performance of conventional computers have mainly been achieved through semiconductor scaling; however, scaling is reaching its limitations. Natural phenomena, such as quantum superposition and stochastic resonance, have been introduced into new computing paradigms to improve performance beyond these limitations. Here, we explain that the uncertain behaviours of devices due to semiconductor scaling can improve the performance of computers. We prototyped an integrated circuit by performing a ground-state search of the Ising model. The bit errors of memory cell devices holding the current state of search occur probabilistically by inserting fluctuations into dynamic device characteristics, which will be actualised in the future to the chip. As a result, we observed more improvements in solution accuracy than that without fluctuations. Although the uncertain behaviours of devices had been intended to be eliminated in conventional devices, we demonstrate that uncertain behaviours has become the key to improving computational performance.

Responding to Requests of Families for Unproven Interventions in Neurodevelopmental Disorders: Hyperbaric Oxygen "Treatment" and Stem Cell "Therapy" in Cerebral Palsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Emily; Wallace, Tessa; Chouinard, Isabelle; Shevell, Michael; Racine, Eric

2011-01-01

Faced with the limitations of currently available mainstream medical treatments and interventions, parents of children with neurodevelopmental disorders often seek information about unproven interventions. These interventions frequently have undetermined efficacy and uncertain safety profiles. In this article, we present a general background and…

Honor Code/Code of Conduct in International Institutions of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alahmad, Ala'

2013-01-01

In today's society, students are faced with many ethical decisions about which they are uncertain. Unfortunately, many of these problems are rooted not only in their academic lives, but also in the workplace. These problems stem from a lack of knowledge concerning decision-making. This problem presents an actual global dilemma. Codifying ethics in…

Learning and Teaching in Uncertain Times: A Nietzschean Approach in Professional Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joosten, Henriëtta

2013-01-01

Today professionals have to deal with more uncertainties in their field than before. We live in complex and rapidly changing environments. The British philosopher Ronald Barnett adds the term "supercomplexity" to highlight the fact that "we can no longer be sure how even to describe the world that faces us" (Barnett, 2004).…

Love and Ruin(s): Robert Frost on Moral Repair

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frank, Jeff

2011-01-01

This essay begins where Alasdair MacIntyre's "After Virtue" begins: facing a moral world in ruin. MacIntyre argues that this predicament leaves us with a choice: we can follow the path of Friedrich Nietzsche, accepting this moral destruction and attempting to create lives in a rootless, uncertain world, or the path of Aristotle, working to reclaim…

Family forest owners rule!

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler

2011-01-01

The largest issues facing forests in the United States are no longer about public lands. The public still wants the same things envisioned by the Weeks Act—water protection, timber supply, aesthetics, and recreational opportunities (U.S. Forest Service 1913)—but the focus must now be on the lands whose fate is more uncertain. We have entered a new era...

Covenants Not to Compete in Employment Contracts: Worth a Closer Look in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Tonia Hap

2015-01-01

The topic of noncompetes is a rich one for a business law or legal environment course. It presents opportunities to tie law and policy, law and ethics, law and strategy. It exemplifies the challenges businesses and employees may face in a changing, complex, uncertain legal environment. Accordingly, this article provides materials on noncompetes…

School Leaders Facing Real Change: Shifting Geography, Uncertain Paths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louis, Karen Seashore

2003-01-01

A central problem for school leadership in the United States is to create settings in which success for students motivates teachers. Meeting this objective is becoming more difficult as teachers, except the most brilliant, struggle to cope with the diversity of students in a changing socio-economic climate and a context in which there is a…

Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments...

Commitment and Relatedness: How College Students Use Religious Coping to Manage Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schindler, Neal; Hope, Keely J.

2016-01-01

Anxiety is a common symptom among college counseling clients. Perhaps because of the unique developmental tasks they face, many later adolescents (ages 18-24 years) use religious coping to manage anxiety. Many counselors are uncertain about how to address religious themes in therapy, if at all. However, most clients of faith do not want counselors…

The "Post-Racial" Politics of Race: Changing Student Assignment Policy in Three School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Kathryn A.; Frankenberg, Erica; Diem, Sarah

2015-01-01

Many school districts have recently revised, or tried to revise, their policies for assigning students to schools, because the legal and political status of racial and other kinds of diversity is uncertain, and the districts are facing fiscal austerity. This article presents case studies of politics and student assignment policy in three large…

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Public health in the 21st century: working differently means leading and learning differently.

PubMed

Czabanowska, Katarzyna; Rethmeier, Kenneth A; Lueddeke, George; Smith, Tony; Malho, André; Otok, Robert; Stankunas, Mindaugas

2014-12-01

Public health needs to adapt to the complex context of 21st century Europe. Unquestionably, leaders for health require new skills to face a myriad of wicked problems and challenges that are at a critical juncture for potential improvements. Public health curricula are traditionally oriented around core educational disciplines, and there is little room for developing students' leadership capabilities within the context of public health. The aim is to present the meaning of contemporary public health leadership based on qualitative research and propose a curriculum model for contemporary public health leadership. A series of in-depth semi-structured interviews were carried out with six European public health leaders from a variety of countries and professional backgrounds. The interviews recorded and transcribed. A thematic content analysis was undertaken to identify themes within the data. Five common themes that help to inform future leadership capacity arose from the interviews: the inner path of leadership, the essence of leadership, new types of leadership, future leaders' imperatives functioning within a complex and uncertain European public health context. The leadership thematic model makes an important contribution to defining public health leadership in Europe and can help to guide the content development of public health leadership curricula. The authors assert that a new 'integrative inquiry-based learning model', with leadership as a central component, will allow schools and departments of public health across Europe to be able to ensure that tomorrow's public health leaders are adequately trained and prepared for the challenges they will face. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

"What time is my next meal?" delay-discounting individuals choose smaller portions under conditions of uncertainty.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Annie R; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Martin, Ashley A; Rogers, Peter J; Mason, Alice; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

2017-09-01

'Dietary' delay discounting is typically framed as a trade-off between immediate rewards and long-term health concerns. Our contention is that prospective thinking also occurs over shorter periods, and is engaged to select portion sizes based on the interval between meals (inter-meal interval; IMI). We sought to assess the extent to which the length of an IMI influences portion-size selection. We predicted that delay discounters would show 'IMI insensitivity' (relative lack of concern about hunger or fullness between meals). In particular, we were interested in participants' sensitivity to an uncertain IMI. We hypothesized that when meal times were uncertain, delay discounters would be less responsive and select smaller portion sizes. Participants (N = 90) selected portion sizes for lunch. In different trials, they were told to expect dinner at 5pm, 9pm, and either 5pm or 9pm (uncertain IMI). Individual differences in future-orientation were measured using a monetary delay-discounting task. Participants chose larger portions when the IMI was longer (p < 0.001). When the IMI was uncertain, delay-discounting participants chose smaller portions than the average portion chosen in the certain IMIs (p < 0.05). Furthermore, monetary discounting mediated a relationship between BMI and smaller portion selection in uncertainty (p < 0.05). This is the first study to report an association between delay discounting and IMI insensitivity. We reason that delay discounters selected smaller portions because they were less sensitive to the uncertain IMI, and overlooked concerns about potential future hunger. These findings are important because they illustrate that differences in discounting are expressed in short-term portion-size decisions and suggest that IMI insensitivity increases when meal timings are uncertain. Further research is needed to confirm whether these findings generalise to other populations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Conifer radial growth response to recent seasonal warming and drought from the southwestern USA

Treesearch

Charles Truettner; William R. L. Anderegg; Franco Biondi; George W. Koch; Kiona Ogle; Christopher Schwalm; Marcy E. Litvak; John D. Shaw; Emanuele Ziaco

2018-01-01

Future droughts are expected to become more severe and frequent under future climate change scenarios, likely causing widespread tree mortality in the western USA. Coping with an uncertain future requires an understanding of long-term ecosystem responses in areas where prolonged drought is projected to increase. Tree-ring records are ideally suited for this task. We...

Disruptive Technology: An Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-21

Technology that overturns market -- Military - Technology that causes a fundamental change in force structure, basing, and capability balance * Disruptive Technologies may arise from systems or enabling technology.

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

How Do Future Life Perspective and Present Action Work in Japanese Youth Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kawai, Toru; Moran, Seana

2017-01-01

"Future life perspective" and "present action," whose interaction affects how one's current activity affects later life, offer a critical crossroads for young adults in Japan as stable career paths have become more uncertain. Past generations benefited from stable institutional pathways, but recent generations must forge their…

Modeling groundwater quality in an arid agricultural environment in the face of an uncertain climate: the case of Mewat District, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. C.; Ward, A. S.; Muste, M.

2014-12-01

The salinization of groundwater resources is a widespread problem in arid agricultural environments. In Mewat District (Haryana, India), groundwater salinity has rendered much of the accessible supply unfit for human consumption or agriculture. Historically, this closed basin retained fresh pockets of water at the foothills of the Aravalli Hills, where monsoonal precipitation runoff from the mountains was recharged through infiltration or facilitated by man-made structures. To date, an increasing number of pumps supply the region with fresh water for consumption and agriculture leading to shrinking the freshwater zone at an accelerated pace. The potential for increased human consumption corroborated with the effects of climate change bring uncertainty about the future of water security for the Mewat communities, most of them critically bound to the existence of local water. This study addresses the sustainability of the freshwater supply under a range of land interventions and climate scenarios, using a 2-D groundwater flow and transport model. Our results quantify potential futures for this arid, groundwater-dependent location, using numerical groundwater modeling to quantify interactions between human water use, infrastructure, and climate. Outcomes of this modeling study will inform an NGO active in the area on sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Boundary Activities of Middle School Teacher Teams in a Global Era: Empirical Evidence from China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Shengnan; Feng, Daming

2016-01-01

With the tide of globalization, the external environment that schools face turns uncertain and complex. In response to the new challenges, teacher teams need to manage boundaries to maintain the sustainable development. The two studies reported in this paper, aimed to examine the boundary activities of teacher teams of middle schools in China. In…

The Effects of Sexual Assault on the Identity Development of Black College Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henry, Wilma J.

2009-01-01

Sexual assault victims face more social criticism than victims of any other crime. It is uncertain whether women of color are more at risk for sexual assault than White women during their college years. However, studies suggest that Black female sexual assault victims are more likely than White female victims to be blamed for their attacks and…

In Defense of Print: A Manifesto of Stories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mathieu, Paula

2017-01-01

The unreliability of preserving writing in any form seems apt: it is a physical reminder of writing's shaky, uncertain power. Sometimes words can change the world, but more often, the stark realities of an unjust world can fail to bend to even the most beautifully chosen words. In the face of long odds, the impulse to write and share words, in any…

Science, Society and Sustainability: Education and Empowerment for an Uncertain World. Routledge Research in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Donald, Ed.; Colucci-Gray, Laura, Ed.; Camino, Elena, Ed.

2011-01-01

Recent work in science and technological studies has provided a clearer understanding of the way in which science functions in society and the interconnectedness among different strands of science, policy, economy and environment. It is well acknowledged that a different way of thinking is required in order to address problems facing the global…

I don't know where to look: the impact of intolerance of uncertainty on saccades towards non-predictive emotional face distractors.

PubMed

Morriss, Jayne; McSorley, Eugene; van Reekum, Carien M

2017-08-24

Attentional bias to uncertain threat is associated with anxiety disorders. Here we examine the extent to which emotional face distractors (happy, angry and neutral) and individual differences in intolerance of uncertainty (IU), impact saccades in two versions of the "follow a cross" task. In both versions of the follow the cross task, the probability of receiving an emotional face distractor was 66.7%. To increase perceived uncertainty regarding the location of the face distractors, in one of the tasks additional non-predictive cues were presented before the onset of the face distractors and target. We did not find IU to impact saccades towards non-cued face distractors. However, we found IU, over Trait Anxiety, to impact saccades towards non-predictive cueing of face distractors. Under these conditions, IU individuals' eyes were pulled towards angry face distractors and away from happy face distractors overall, and the speed of this deviation of the eyes was determined by the combination of the cue and emotion of the face. Overall, these results suggest a specific role of IU on attentional bias to threat during uncertainty. These findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand anxiety disorder pathology and inform potential treatment targets.

The emerging roles of agricultural insurance and farmers cooperatives on sustainable rice productions in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopulisa, C.; Rismaneswati; Ramlan, A.; Suryani, I.

2018-05-01

Rice is the main staple food of most Asian countries including Indonesia. Most of the rice producers are constituted by small individual farmers characterized with mostly landless, have a less farming capitals and less access to pool resources and of course are confronted with various risk. Agriculture is faced with a lot of uncertainly most of which are not within the control of farmers. Global climatic change, climatic disasters, fluctuation of global economic and competitiveness of multinational company make difficulties of farmers to pursue his sustainable farming activity. The challenge and the role of government is to reduce uncertainly and to improve resiliency of the small farmer. Agriculture insurance shall focus on risk factors that are difficult to manage or cannot be managed by small farmers and it is should be viewed as just one aspect of the “holistic” risk management strategy. Technology, market, consumer, behaviour, development will always move forward, and no individual farmers can adapt this change alone, so small farmers need to corporate with each other that can optimized the resources they have. Cooperative could create possibilities, value added, shortening the supplied chain, made a product more effective and efficient, and finally can complete in domestic and global markets. Therefore, agriculture insurance as well a farmer cooperative may play an important role on sustainability of rice production in Indonesia. Nowadays and in the future agriculture sustainability is a not merely of technology problems but also a matter of economic-social-culture and politic issues within local, national, and international context.

Spouses' reflections on implantable cardioverter defibrillator treatment with focus on the future and the end-of-life: a qualitative content analysis.

PubMed

Fluur, Christina; Bolse, Kärstin; Strömberg, Anna; Thylén, Ingela

2014-08-01

To explore future reflections of spouses living with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipient with focus on the end-of-life phase in an anticipated palliative phase. A history of or risk for life-threatening arrhythmias may require an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. Despite the life-saving capacity of the device, eventually life will come to an end. As discussion about preferences of shock therapy at end-of-life phase seldom takes place in advance, the implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipients may face defibrillating shocks in the final weeks of their lives, adding to stress and anxiety in patients and their families. Qualitative study with in-depth interviews analysed with a content analysis. Interviews were performed with 18 spouses of medically stable implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipients during 2011-2012. The spouses described how they dealt with changes in life and an uncertain future following the implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation. Six subcategories conceptualized the spouses' concerns: Aspiring for involvement; Managing an altered relationship; Being attentive to warning signs; Worries for deterioration in the partner's health; Waiting for the defibrillating shock; and Death is veiled in silence. Despite the partner's serious state of health; terminal illness or death and the role of the device was seldom discussed with healthcare professionals or the implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipient. Open and honest communication was requested as important to support coping with an unpredictable life situation and to reduce worries and uncertainty about the future and end-of-life. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Governance in the Digital Age: A Research and Action Framework for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawes, Sharon S.

2009-01-01

Research into relationships among government, society and technology has grown substantially over the past 30 years. However, most research and most advances in practice address narrowly defined categories of concern such as government organization, citizen services, interoperability, or personal privacy. By contrast, the future presents complex…

Planning for an uncertain future: Restoration to mitigate water scarcity and sustain carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; David N. Wear; Larry Band

2018-01-01

The desired future conditions of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) can be described by ecosystem structural characteristics as well as by the provision of ecosystem services. Although the desired structural characteristics of restored longleaf pine ecosystems have been described at length, these characteristics deserve a brief review here because...

Caught in Uncertain Futures, Now: A Reflexive Moment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Reynaldo, III

2016-01-01

This reflexive vignette reveals the emotional risks of ethnographic work by a Chicano researcher, educator, and advocate doing work in the Texas-Mexico Borderlands, caught at the intersection of vulnerable Latina/o youth and their possible futures. Data in this creative piece are derived from field notes of one classroom observation from an…

University Continuing Education: Strategies for an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baskett, H. K.; Hamilton, A. Bruce

Some of the most common predictions relating to university continuing education units provide a base from which a discussion of future strategies can begin. These include the following: the Big Generation (i.e., baby boomers) is here; knowledge, not products, is the major focus of society; competition for the traditional university continuing…

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

Safeguards Technology Strategic Planning Pentachart

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carroll, C. J.

Builds on earlier strategic planning workshops conducted for SGIT, SGTS, and SGCP. Many of recommendations from these workshops have been successfully implemented at the IAEA. Provide a context for evaluating new approaches for anticipated safeguards challenges of the future. Approach used by government and military to plan for an uncertain future. Uses consensus decision-making.

Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Cox, Brian; Mutel, Christopher L; Bauer, Christian; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vuuren, Detlef P

2018-04-17

The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain, though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity analysis to quantify parametric uncertainty and also consider two additional factors that have not yet been addressed in the field. First, we include changes to driving patterns due to the introduction of autonomous and connected vehicles. Second, we deeply integrate scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into our life cycle database to include the impacts of changes to the electricity sector on the environmental burdens of producing and recharging future EVs. Future EVs are expected to have 45-78% lower climate change impacts than current EVs. Electricity used for charging is the largest source of variability in results, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns, and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. We also show that it is imperative to consider changes to the electricity sector when calculating upstream impacts of EVs, as without this, results could be overestimated by up to 75%.

Ancient mitochondrial DNA reveals convergent evolution of giant short-faced bears (Tremarctinae) in North and South America.

PubMed

Mitchell, Kieren J; Bray, Sarah C; Bover, Pere; Soibelzon, Leopoldo; Schubert, Blaine W; Prevosti, Francisco; Prieto, Alfredo; Martin, Fabiana; Austin, Jeremy J; Cooper, Alan

2016-04-01

The Tremarctinae are a subfamily of bears endemic to the New World, including two of the largest terrestrial mammalian carnivores that have ever lived: the giant, short-faced bears Arctodus simus from North America and Arctotherium angustidens from South America (greater than or equal to 1000 kg). Arctotherium angustidens became extinct during the Early Pleistocene, whereas Arctodus simus went extinct at the very end of the Pleistocene. The only living tremarctine is the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus), a largely herbivorous bear that is today only found in South America. The relationships among the spectacled bears (Tremarctos), South American short-faced bears (Arctotherium) and North American short-faced bears (Arctodus) remain uncertain. In this study, we sequenced a mitochondrial genome from an Arctotherium femur preserved in a Chilean cave. Our molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the South American short-faced bears were more closely related to the extant South American spectacled bear than to the North American short-faced bears. This result suggests striking convergent evolution of giant forms in the two groups of short-faced bears (Arctodus and Arctotherium), potentially as an adaptation to dominate competition for megafaunal carcasses. © 2016 The Author(s).

Ancient mitochondrial DNA reveals convergent evolution of giant short-faced bears (Tremarctinae) in North and South America

PubMed Central

Bover, Pere; Soibelzon, Leopoldo; Schubert, Blaine W.; Prevosti, Francisco; Prieto, Alfredo; Martin, Fabiana; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

2016-01-01

The Tremarctinae are a subfamily of bears endemic to the New World, including two of the largest terrestrial mammalian carnivores that have ever lived: the giant, short-faced bears Arctodus simus from North America and Arctotherium angustidens from South America (greater than or equal to 1000 kg). Arctotherium angustidens became extinct during the Early Pleistocene, whereas Arctodus simus went extinct at the very end of the Pleistocene. The only living tremarctine is the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus), a largely herbivorous bear that is today only found in South America. The relationships among the spectacled bears (Tremarctos), South American short-faced bears (Arctotherium) and North American short-faced bears (Arctodus) remain uncertain. In this study, we sequenced a mitochondrial genome from an Arctotherium femur preserved in a Chilean cave. Our molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the South American short-faced bears were more closely related to the extant South American spectacled bear than to the North American short-faced bears. This result suggests striking convergent evolution of giant forms in the two groups of short-faced bears (Arctodus and Arctotherium), potentially as an adaptation to dominate competition for megafaunal carcasses. PMID:27095265

Camera pose refinement by matching uncertain 3D building models with thermal infrared image sequences for high quality texture extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaszczuk, Dorota; Stilla, Uwe

2017-10-01

Thermal infrared (TIR) images are often used to picture damaged and weak spots in the insulation of the building hull, which is widely used in thermal inspections of buildings. Such inspection in large-scale areas can be carried out by combining TIR imagery and 3D building models. This combination can be achieved via texture mapping. Automation of texture mapping avoids time consuming imaging and manually analyzing each face independently. It also provides a spatial reference for façade structures extracted in the thermal textures. In order to capture all faces, including the roofs, façades, and façades in the inner courtyard, an oblique looking camera mounted on a flying platform is used. Direct geo-referencing is usually not sufficient for precise texture extraction. In addition, 3D building models have also uncertain geometry. In this paper, therefore, methodology for co-registration of uncertain 3D building models with airborne oblique view images is presented. For this purpose, a line-based model-to-image matching is developed, in which the uncertainties of the 3D building model, as well as of the image features are considered. Matched linear features are used for the refinement of the exterior orientation parameters of the camera in order to ensure optimal co-registration. Moreover, this study investigates whether line tracking through the image sequence supports the matching. The accuracy of the extraction and the quality of the textures are assessed. For this purpose, appropriate quality measures are developed. The tests showed good results on co-registration, particularly in cases where tracking between the neighboring frames had been applied.

Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrell Estupina, V.; Raynaud, F.; Bourgeois, N.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Collet, L.; Haziza, E.; Servat, E.

2015-06-01

Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).

JPRS Report, East Asia Southeast Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-14

14 PAS Willing To Face Elections Alone [BERITA HARIAN 13 May] 14 DAP , Spirit of󈧲 Meet [UTUSANMALAYSIA 3 May] 15 Government To Hold...Uncertain [UTUSANMALAYSIA 1 May] 16 Secret PAS- DAP Meeting in Jakarta Canceled [UTUSANMALAYSIA 3 May] 16 Sabah Elections Expected Year Early...signed by dozens of leading figures and religious scholars such as Hasan Basri, Prodjokusumo, and Ibrahim Hosein (Indonesian Council of Religious

The Influence of Causal Knowledge on the Willingness to Change Attitude towards Climate Change: Results from an Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They…

Acquiring Technical Data With Renewable Real Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

Development, and Engineering Center, 2009). Faced with diminishing sources for M2 .50 caliber machine gun parts , an Army engineering center entered the...data needed for life cycle sustainment functions such as maintenance or competitive spare parts procurement, but this expectation is more complicated...than it seems (DoD, 2015). The needs and timing for competitive spare parts procurement are uncertain, and changes in system configuration or

2013 Schroth faces of the future symposium to highlight early career professionals in Mycology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2013 Schroth Faces of the Future symposium was created to recognize early career professionals (those within 10 years of graduation) who represent the future in their field via innovative research. For this year, future faces in mycology research were recognized. Drs. Jason Slot, Erica Goss, Jam...

Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2009-03-01

Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

2015-12-01

The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

Two Energy Futures: A National Choice for the 80s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Petroleum Inst., Washington, DC.

In 1980, the American Petroleum Institute published the first edition of "Two Energy Futures." It described the U.S. energy experience of the 1970s and prospects for the 1980s, concluding that the nation could drastically reduce its dependence on uncertain sources of imported oil if the right choices were made by individuals and the…

Temperature and tree growth [editorial

Treesearch

Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

Tree growth helps US forests take up 12% of the fossil fuels emitted in the USA (Woodbury et al. 2007), so predicting tree growth for future climates matters. Predicting future climates themselves is uncertain, but climate scientists probably have the most confidence in predictions for temperature. Temperatures are projected to rise by 0.2 °C in the next two decades,...

Preparing for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefkowits, Laura; Miller, Kirsten

2007-01-01

In this article, the authors explain a method that helps policymakers and educators to identify the forces and trends affecting education today and to project how they might conceivably play out in the future. They suggest that by asking "What if?" in a disciplined way, it might be better to imagine the possibilities of tomorrow in order to take…

Observed and projected C change in the Southeastern US

Treesearch

John Coulston; David Wear; Jim Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain due to the effects of land use changes, management, disturbance, and climate change. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. Using a completely...

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

2013-12-01

The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although freshwater supply and surface water quality were sustained or enhanced overall, these hydrologic services declined in ~60% and 20% of the landscape, respectively. The greatest improvement for most hydrologic services corresponded to areas of restored wetland, forest and perennial crops, which were less vulnerable to future degradation. In the Investment in Innovation scenario, freshwater supply declined in almost the entire watershed; improvement of surface water quality and flood regulation occurred mainly in urban areas, where highly engineered systems made them less vulnerable. Overall, our results indicated that hydrologic services will respond differently to future climate and land-use change, and sustaining one may involve tradeoffs of another. Technological progress can conserve particular services but might not be the panacea for the future. How society reacts in the face of changes can have an important role in determining the pathways to the future and the provision and spatial patterns of ecosystem services.

An uncertain future for lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Lee T.

2018-03-01

The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

Ranking fluctuating asymmetry in a dot figure and the significant impact of imagining a face.

PubMed

Neby, Magne; Ivar, Folstad

2013-01-01

Fluctuating asymmetry and averageness is correlated with our perception of beauty in human faces. Yet, whether deviations of centrality in the positioning of the eyes, the nose, and the mouth have different effects on our perception of asymmetry in a holistic human face, is still uncertain. In this study we aimed to test the relative effect of decentralising the horizontal position of three sets of paired dots representing eyes, nostrils, or mouth from the vertical midline of ambiguous dot figures, vaguely resembling a face. The figures were ranked according to perceived asymmetry by human observers. When associating the figures with non-facial objects (eg a butterfly), none of the figures' rank distribution differed from each other. However, when observers imagined the figures to represent a human face, the figure with the decentralised pair of dots representing the nostrils was significantly ranked as more asymmetric than the other figures. This result provides indications that the brain may deal with information about facial asymmetry and averageness heavily depending on the centrality of the nasal region.

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information.

PubMed

D'Evelyn, Sean T; Tarui, Nori; Burnett, Kimberly; Roumasset, James A

2008-12-01

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species' population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit--the value of information to reduce uncertainty--is likely to be quite large.

Separating astrophysical sources from indirect dark matter signals

PubMed Central

Siegal-Gaskins, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Indirect searches for products of dark matter annihilation and decay face the challenge of identifying an uncertain and subdominant signal in the presence of uncertain backgrounds. Two valuable approaches to this problem are (i) using analysis methods which take advantage of different features in the energy spectrum and angular distribution of the signal and backgrounds and (ii) more accurately characterizing backgrounds, which allows for more robust identification of possible signals. These two approaches are complementary and can be significantly strengthened when used together. I review the status of indirect searches with gamma rays using two promising targets, the Inner Galaxy and the isotropic gamma-ray background. For both targets, uncertainties in the properties of backgrounds are a major limitation to the sensitivity of indirect searches. I then highlight approaches which can enhance the sensitivity of indirect searches using these targets. PMID:25304638

The ecological rationality of state-dependent valuation.

PubMed

McNamara, J M; Trimmer, P C; Houston, A I

2012-01-01

Laboratory studies on a range of animals have identified a bias that seems to violate basic principles of rational behavior: a preference is shown for feeding options that previously provided food when reserves were low, even though another option had been found to give the same reward with less delay. The bias presents a challenge to normative models of decision making (which only take account of expected rewards and the state of the animal at the decision time). To understand the behavior, we take a broad ecological perspective and consider how valuation mechanisms evolve when the best action depends upon the environment being faced. We show that in a changing and uncertain environment, state-dependent valuation can be favored by natural selection: Individuals should allow their hunger to affect learning for future decisions. The valuation mechanism that typically evolves produces the kind of behavior seen in standard laboratory tests. By providing an insight into why learning should be affected by the state of an individual, we provide a basis for understanding psychological principles in terms of an animal's ecology.

Capture-recapture methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Kendall, William L.

2013-01-01

Capture-recapture methods were initially developed to estimate human population abundance, but since that time have seen widespread use for fish and wildlife populations to estimate and model various parameters of population, metapopulation, and disease dynamics. Repeated sampling of marked animals provides information for estimating abundance and tracking the fate of individuals in the face of imperfect detection. Mark types have evolved from clipping or tagging to use of noninvasive methods such as photography of natural markings and DNA collection from feces. Survival estimation has been emphasized more recently as have transition probabilities between life history states and/or geographical locations, even where some states are unobservable or uncertain. Sophisticated software has been developed to handle highly parameterized models, including environmental and individual covariates, to conduct model selection, and to employ various estimation approaches such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. With these user-friendly tools, complex statistical models for studying population dynamics have been made available to ecologists. The future will include a continuing trend toward integrating data types, both for tagged and untagged individuals, to produce more precise and robust population models.

My winding trail while fulfilling my love for science and family.

PubMed

Orth, Kim

2018-04-11

My winding path toward a career in science was awkward, like an adolescent finding an identity. It did not follow a classic course; it had many interruptions, complications, and challenges. It also involved a bit of luck and extremely supportive colleagues, mentors, and family, including my husband, children, and in-laws. I was inspired to tell my story here because I met a young woman interviewing in 2018 for graduate school who is growing up with the same complicated family expectations, social challenges, love for science, and desire to be a scientist as I had four decades ago. Her future is uncertain, because her chosen academic path is not encouraged by those around her. We, as a society, must find ways to encourage, promote, enable, and give strength to those who want to follow their dreams despite facing many challenges in their lives. Here are some things I learned on my career path that I hope might be helpful for others. Published under license by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Girls, Boys and Subject Choice: A Report on Sex Differences in Participation Rates in Subjects in Western Australian Government Secondary Schools. Discussion Paper No. 11.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Sandra; Fitzpatrick, Jim

Many of the issues confronting schools and society relate to the changing roles of males and females. Concern has also been expressed over the preparedness of graduates to face an uncertain job market and rapid technological change. To study the relationship between school subject choice and career opportunities for Australian youth, school…

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

could experience what are now considered 100-year floods every three to four years by the end of the 21st century.75 Ocean Acidification . The world’s...could be particularly harmful.81 In addition, shellfish, plankton, and corals face a highly uncertain threat from acidification of the world’s...eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, p. 213; Raven and others, Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric

The Two Faces of Wisdom: Wisdom as a General Theory of Knowledge and Judgment about Excellence in Mind and Virtue vs. Wisdom as Everyday Realization in People and Products

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baltesa, Paul B.; Kunzmann, Ute

2004-01-01

There are several legitimate ways of conceptualizing and studying wisdom. One is largely informed by Western philosophy and treats wisdom as an analytic theory of expert knowledge, judgment, and advice about difficult and uncertain matters of life. Another is more consistent with Asian philosophical nonsecularized traditions and treats wisdom as…

Compete, coordinate, and cooperate: How to exploit uncertain environments with social interaction.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2015-10-01

Countless decisions, from the trivial to the crucial, are made in complex social contexts while facing uncertain consequences. Yet a large portion of decision making research focuses on either the effects of social interaction or the effects of environmental uncertainty by examining strategic games against others or individual games against nature. Drawing a connection between these approaches, the authors extend a standard individual choice paradigm to include social interaction with 1 other person. In this paradigm, 2 competing decision makers repeatedly select among 2 options, each offering a particular probability of a fixed payoff. When both players choose the same, correct option, the payoff is evenly split; when they choose different options, the player choosing the correct option receives the full payoff. The addition of this social dimension gives players an opportunity to fully exploit an uncertain environment via cooperation: By consistently choosing opposite options, two players can exploit the uncertain environment more effectively than a single player could. We present 2 experiments that manipulate environmental (Experiment 1) and social (Experiment 2) aspects of the paradigm. In Experiment 1, the outcome probabilities were either known or unknown to participants; in Experiment 2, participants' attention was drawn to individual or group gains by introducing either within- or between-group competition. Efficient cooperation did not emerge spontaneously in Experiment 1. Instead, most people probability maximized, mirroring the behavior observed in individual choice. By contrast, between--group competition in Experiment 2 facilitated efficient-but not always equitable--exploitation of uncertain environments. This work links the concepts of individual risky choice and strategic decision making under both environmental and social uncertainty. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Pregnancy through the Lens of Iranian Women with HIV: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Behboodi-Moghadam, Zahra; Khalajinia, Zohre; Nasrabadi, Ali-Reza Nikbakht; Mohraz, Minoo; Gharacheh, Maryam

2016-01-01

To explore the experience of pregnancy among Iranian women with HIV, 12 HIV-infected pregnant women who referred to counseling center for behavioral diseases in Imam Khomeini Hospital were recruited through purposive sampling. Data were collected by face-to-face, semi-structured interview and were analyzed using conventional content analysis method. Four main themes emerged from the data: fear and hope, stigma and discrimination, marital life stability, and trust in God. Despite concerns about mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and uncertain life span, HIV-infected women tended to continue their pregnancy, and having children was viewed as a window of hope for them. © The Author(s) 2015.

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Bakker, Alexander M R; Wong, Tony E; Ruckert, Kelsey L; Keller, Klaus

2017-06-20

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices . Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Socio-hydrology of the Thippagondanahalli catchment in India - from common property to open-access.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Thomas, B.; Lele, S.

2014-12-01

Developing countries face difficult challenge as they must adapt to an uncertain climate future even as land use, demography and the composition of their economies are rapidly changing. Achieving a secure water future requires making reliable predictions of water cycle dynamics in future years. This necessitates understanding societal feedbacks and predicting how these will change in the future. We explore this "Predictions Under Change" problem in the Thippagondanahalli (TG Halli) catchment of the Arkavathy Basin in South India. Here, river flows have declined sharply over the last thirty years. The TG Halli Reservoir that once supplied 148 MLD to Bangalore city only yields 30 MLD today. Our analyses suggest that these declines cannot be attributed to climatic factors; groundwater depletion is probably the major cause. We analysed the interlinked human and hydrologic factors and feedbacks between them that have resulted in the present situation using extensive primary data, including weather stations, stream gaging, soil moisture sensing, household surveys, oral histories, interviews, and secondary data including census data, crop reports, satellite imagery and historical hydro-climatic data. Our analysis suggests that several factors have contributed to a continuous shift from surface to groundwater in the TG Halli catchment. First, cheap borewell technology has made groundwater more accessible. Second, as demand for high-value produce from the city and wealth increased, farmers became increasingly willing to invest in risky borewell drilling. Third, differences in governance in groundwater (open access) versus surface water (community managed tanks) hastened the break-down of community managed water systems allowing unchecked exploitation of groundwater. Finally, the political economy of water spurred groundwater development through provision of free electricity and "watershed development" programmes.

Interpretation bias for uncertain threat: A replication and extension.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Raines, Amanda M; Short, Nicole A; Capron, Daniel W; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-06-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within various anxiety-related disorders. Research has suggested that individuals high in IU may interpret ambiguous information in a more threatening manner, suggesting a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information. However, interpretation biases within IU have not been adequately tested in the literature. The current study evaluated negative interpretation biases for uncertain information by directly measuring an individual's interpretations of ambiguous information across two samples. Participants consisted of 76 (Study 1; 72.4% female) and 31 (Study 2; 81% female) undergraduate students. Results indicated that individuals high in IU interpret ambiguous scenarios as more threatening compared to negative and/or positive scenarios (β = .45, p = .02). In addition, individuals high in IU showed a negative interpretation bias for ambiguous information, but not benign information (Study 1: β = -.40, p < .001; Study 2: β = -.57, p = .002). Future research should attempt to replicate these findings within clinical populations. In addition, future work would benefit from the inclusion of behavioral assessments of IU. These findings are the first to detect the presence of a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information among individuals high in IU utilizing a task designed to directly measure an individual's interpretation of information. Given the efficacy and low economic burden associated with interpretation bias modification protocols, and the transdiagnostic nature of IU, targeting IU within these protocols could have a tremendous public health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty during Anticipation Modulates Neural Responses to Aversion in Human Insula and Amygdala

PubMed Central

Sarinopoulos, I.; Grupe, D. W.; Mackiewicz, K. L.; Herrington, J. D.; Lor, M.; Steege, E. E.

2010-01-01

Uncertainty about potential negative future outcomes can cause stress and is a central feature of anxiety disorders. The stress and anxiety associated with uncertain situations may lead individuals to overestimate the frequency with which uncertain cues are followed by negative outcomes, an example of covariation bias. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that uncertainty-related expectations modulated neural responses to aversion. Insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures were larger after an uncertain cue (that preceded aversive or neutral pictures) than a certain cue (that always preceded aversive pictures). Anticipatory anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) activity elicited by the cues was inversely associated with the insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures following the cues. Nearly 75% of subjects overestimated the frequency of aversive pictures following uncertain cues, and ACC and insula activity predicted this uncertainty-related covariation bias. Findings provide the first evidence of the brain mechanisms of covariation bias and highlight the temporal dynamics of ACC, insula, and amygdala recruitment for processing aversion in the context of uncertainty. PMID:19679543

Coalmining and the National Scheme for Disabled Ex-Servicemen after the First World War.

PubMed

Mantin, Mike

2016-04-02

After the First World War, disabled British veterans returned home to an uncertain future of work. In addition to voluntary efforts, the government's response to the national employment crisis - the National Scheme for Disabled Ex-Servicemen (commonly known as the King's Roll) - was established in 1919 to encourage employers to hire a five per cent quota of disabled ex-servicemen. Historians have recently revisited the scheme, noting that in many cases the process was slow and fraught, with many disabled veterans facing the prospect of unemployment, yet few have paid attention to soldiers' pre-war working backgrounds and the specific requests of British industries. This article focuses on British coalminers returning from war. What role was there in this national situation for an industry known for its own high rate of accident and injury? Although the King's Roll made some attempt to find veterans specifically targeted jobs above and below ground according to their impairments, it proved unable to incorporate coalmining. Instead, many disabled ex-servicemen returned to the workplace and utilized their existing identities as miners to navigate the process. With the industry beginning to decline, many faced potential regression in job status, exploitation or unemployment. By shifting to an industry-specific focus, this case study explores the contested nature of work for disabled people after the First World War, and highlights the interrelation and importance of workplace identity for the returning disabled veteran.

Coalmining and the National Scheme for Disabled Ex-Servicemen after the First World War

PubMed Central

Mantin, Mike

2016-01-01

Abstract After the First World War, disabled British veterans returned home to an uncertain future of work. In addition to voluntary efforts, the government’s response to the national employment crisis – the National Scheme for Disabled Ex-Servicemen (commonly known as the King’s Roll) – was established in 1919 to encourage employers to hire a five per cent quota of disabled ex-servicemen. Historians have recently revisited the scheme, noting that in many cases the process was slow and fraught, with many disabled veterans facing the prospect of unemployment, yet few have paid attention to soldiers’ pre-war working backgrounds and the specific requests of British industries. This article focuses on British coalminers returning from war. What role was there in this national situation for an industry known for its own high rate of accident and injury? Although the King’s Roll made some attempt to find veterans specifically targeted jobs above and below ground according to their impairments, it proved unable to incorporate coalmining. Instead, many disabled ex-servicemen returned to the workplace and utilized their existing identities as miners to navigate the process. With the industry beginning to decline, many faced potential regression in job status, exploitation or unemployment. By shifting to an industry-specific focus, this case study explores the contested nature of work for disabled people after the First World War, and highlights the interrelation and importance of workplace identity for the returning disabled veteran. PMID:27134339

Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

2018-02-01

Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

PubMed Central

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-01-01

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system. PMID:29695135

General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.

PubMed

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-24

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system.

Factors influencing antibiotic-prescribing decisions among inpatient physicians: a qualitative investigation

PubMed Central

Livorsi, D; Comer, AR; Matthias, MS; Perencevich, EN; Bair, MJ

2016-01-01

Objective To understand the professional and psychosocial factors that influence physicians' antibiotic-prescribing habits in the inpatient setting. Design We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 inpatient physicians. Interviews consisted of open-ended questions and flexible probes based on participants' responses. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, de-identified, and reviewed for accuracy and completeness. Data were analyzed using emergent thematic analysis. Setting Two teaching hospitals in Indianapolis, IN Participants Thirty inpatient physicians (10 physicians-in-training, 20 supervising staff) Results Participants recognized that antibiotics are over-used, and many admitted to prescribing antibiotics even when the clinical evidence of infection was uncertain. Over-prescription was largely driven by anxiety about missing an infection while potential adverse effects of antibiotics did not strongly influence decision-making. Participants did not routinely disclose potential adverse effects of antibiotics to inpatients. Physicians-in-training were strongly influenced by the antibiotic prescribing behavior of their supervising staff physicians. Participants sometimes questioned their colleagues' antibiotic-prescribing decisions but frequently avoided providing direct feedback or critique, citing obstacles of hierarchy, infrequent face-to-face encounters, and the awkwardness of these conversations. Conclusion There is a physician-based culture of prescribing antibiotics, which involves over-using antibiotics and not challenging colleagues' decisions. The potential adverse effects of antibiotics do not strongly influence decision-making in this sample. A better understanding of these factors could be leveraged in future efforts to improve antibiotic-prescribing in the inpatient setting. PMID:26078017

Views of medical students: what, when and how do they want statistics taught?

PubMed

Fielding, S; Poobalan, A; Prescott, G J; Marais, D; Aucott, L

2015-11-01

A key skill for a practising clinician is being able to do research, understand the statistical analyses and interpret results in the medical literature. Basic statistics has become essential within medical education, but when, what and in which format is uncertain. To inform curriculum design/development we undertook a quantitative survey of fifth year medical students and followed them up with a series of focus groups to obtain their opinions as to what statistics teaching they want, when and how. A total of 145 students undertook the survey and five focus groups were held with between 3 and 9 participants each. Previous statistical training varied and students recognised their knowledge was inadequate and keen to see additional training implemented. Students were aware of the importance of statistics to their future careers, but apprehensive about learning. Face-to-face teaching supported by online resources was popular. Focus groups indicated the need for statistical training early in their degree and highlighted their lack of confidence and inconsistencies in support. The study found that the students see the importance of statistics training in the medical curriculum but that timing and mode of delivery are key. The findings have informed the design of a new course to be implemented in the third undergraduate year. Teaching will be based around published studies aiming to equip students with the basics required with additional resources available through a virtual learning environment. © The Author(s) 2015.

Scientific, Social, and Institutional Constraints Facing Coastal Restoration in Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleiss, B.; Shabman, L. A.; Brown, G.

2017-12-01

Due to multiple stressors, including subsidence, accelerated sea level rise, canal construction, tropical storm damages, and basin-wide river management decisions, southern Louisiana is experiencing some of the world's highest rates of coastal land loss. Although ideas abound, the solutions proposed to mitigate for land loss are often uncertain, complex, expensive, and difficult. There are significant scientific uncertainties associated with fundamental processes including the spatial distribution of rates of subsidence, the anticipated impacts of increased inundation on marsh plant species and questions about the resilience of engineered solutions. Socially and politically, there is the need to balance navigation, flood risk management and environmental restoration with the fact that the land involved is largely privately owned and includes many communities and towns. And layered within this, there are federal and state regulatory constraints which seek to follow a myriad of existing State and Federal laws, protect the benefits realized from previous federal investments, and balance the conflicting interests of a large number of stakeholders. Additionally, current practice when implementing some environmental regulations is to assess impacts against the baseline of current conditions, not projected future, non-project conditions, making it difficult to receive a permit for projects which may have a short-term detriment, but hope for a long-term benefit. The resolution (or lack thereof) of these issues will serve to inform similar future struggles in other low lying coastal areas around the globe.

The Educational Consequences of Teen Childbearing

PubMed Central

Kane, Jennifer B.; Morgan, S. Philip; Harris, Kathleen Mullan; Guilkey, David K.

2013-01-01

A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers. The magnitude of educational consequences is therefore uncertain, despite voluminous policy and prevention efforts that rest on the assumption of a negative and presumably causal effect. This study adjudicates between two potential sources of inconsistency in the literature—methodological differences or cohort differences—by using a single, high-quality data source: namely, The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We replicate analyses across four different statistical strategies: ordinary least squares regression; propensity score matching; and parametric and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate educational consequences of teen childbearing, with estimated effects between 0.7 and 1.9 fewer years of schooling among teen mothers. We select our preferred estimate (0.7), derived from semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation, on the basis of weighing the strengths and limitations of each approach. Based on the range of estimated effects observed in our study, we speculate that variable statistical methods are the likely source of inconsistency in the past. We conclude by discussing implications for future research and policy, and recommend that future studies employ a similar multimethod approach to evaluate findings. PMID:24078155

Aesthetic Treatment of Bruxism

PubMed Central

Aguilera, Shino Bay; Perico, Viviana Andrea

2017-01-01

Bruxism is a diurnal or nocturnal parafunctional activity that includes unconscious clenching, grinding, or bracing of the teeth. An extensive medical history should be taken in these patients so proper diagnosis can be made. Habits such as biting the tongue, cheeks or lips, chewing gum or eating seeds for many hours per day, biting nails, and/or biting hard objects, will cause and/or exacerbate pre-existing bruxism. The etiology of bruxism is uncertain, but it is hypothesized to be associated with genetic, structural, and psychosocial factors. Over time, chronic clenching of the jaw leads to hypertrophy of masseters and temporalis musculature causing the face to take on a masculine and square appearance. Patients commonly present to dermatology cosmetic practices wishing to have a more slim, softer appearing face. This review is the first paper to discuss aesthetic treatment options for complications of bruxism including masseter and temporalis hypertrophy and the associated accelerated aging of the lower face. PMID:28670358

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevâg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.

2018-03-01

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.

From grey to green: Efficacy of eco-engineering solutions for nature-based coastal defence.

PubMed

Morris, Rebecca L; Konlechner, Teresa M; Ghisalberti, Marco; Swearer, Stephen E

2018-05-01

Climate change is increasing the threat of erosion and flooding along coastlines globally. Engineering solutions (e.g. seawalls and breakwaters) in response to protecting coastal communities and associated infrastructure are increasingly becoming economically and ecologically unsustainable. This has led to recommendations to create or restore natural habitats, such as sand dunes, saltmarsh, mangroves, seagrass and kelp beds, and coral and shellfish reefs, to provide coastal protection in place of (or to complement) artificial structures. Coastal managers are frequently faced with the problem of an eroding coastline, which requires a decision on what mitigation options are most appropriate to implement. A barrier to uptake of nature-based coastal defence is stringent evaluation of the effectiveness in comparison to artificial protection structures. Here, we assess the current evidence for the efficacy of nature-based vs. artificial coastal protection and discuss future research needs. Future projects should evaluate habitats created or restored for coastal defence for cost-effectiveness in comparison to an artificial structure under the same environmental conditions. Cost-benefit analyses should take into consideration all ecosystem services provided by nature-based or artificial structures in addition to coastal protection. Interdisciplinary research among scientists, coastal managers and engineers is required to facilitate the experimental trials needed to test the value of these shoreline protection schemes, in order to support their use as alternatives to artificial structures. This research needs to happen now as our rapidly changing climate requires new and innovative solutions to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities to an increasingly uncertain future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons is likely by 2020.

PubMed

Grover, Atul; Gorman, Karyn; Dall, Timothy M; Jonas, Richard; Lytle, Bruce; Shemin, Richard; Wood, Douglas; Kron, Irving

2009-08-11

Even as the burden of cardiovascular disease in the United States is increasing as the population grows and ages, the number of active cardiothoracic surgeons has fallen for the first time in 20 years. Meanwhile, the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease continues to evolve amid uncertain changes in technology. This study evaluates current and future requirements for cardiothoracic surgeons in light of decreasing rates of coronary artery bypass grafting procedures. Projections of supply and demand for cardiothoracic surgeons are based on analysis of population, physician office, hospital, and physician data sets to estimate current patterns of healthcare use and delivery. Using a simulation model, we project the future supply of cardiothoracic surgeons under alternative assumptions about the number of new fellows trained each year. Future demand is modeled, taking into account patient demographics, under current and alternative use rates that include the elimination of open revascularization. By 2025, the demand for cardiothoracic surgeons could increase by 46% on the basis of population growth and aging if current healthcare use and service delivery patterns continue. Even with complete elimination of coronary artery bypass grafting, there is a projected shortfall of cardiothoracic surgeons because the active supply is projected to decrease 21% over the same time period as a result of retirement and declining entrants. The United States is facing a shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons within the next 10 years, which could diminish quality of care if non-board-certified physicians expand their role in cardiothoracic surgery or if patients must delay appropriate care because of a shortage of well-trained surgeons.

Reading the Mind in the Eyes or reading between the lines? Theory of Mind predicts collective intelligence equally well online and face-to-face.

PubMed

Engel, David; Woolley, Anita Williams; Jing, Lisa X; Chabris, Christopher F; Malone, Thomas W

2014-01-01

Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called "collective intelligence") predicted a group's performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members' ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called "Theory of Mind" or "ToM"). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to "read" the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the "Reading the Mind in the Eyes" test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states.

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

2012-01-01

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. As currently designed, this NSSI scenario planning effort will encompass two broadly defined steps. We will engage local communities along with resource agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, academia, and others with Arctic interests in exploring plausible future development activity (scenarios). Then we will undertake science- and traditional knowledge-informed explorations of the relevant research and monitoring that will be needed to detect, assess, and respond to the identified range of plausible development-driven changes on the North Slope and adjacent seas (strategies). The intent is for these strategies to then inform agency decisions about future investment in research and monitoring, and particularly to identify opportunities to collaborate in a manner that will benefit all involved parties. However, it is also important to note that the most important short- and long-term benefit of this scenario planning exercise may in fact be the strengthening of an involved and informed community of stakeholder participants, regardless of specific informational or strategic outcomes.

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Treesearch

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; David N. Wear; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern...

Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and the development of methods to evaluate integrated portfolios of physical and financial risk management strategies.

Regenerating yellow birch in the Lake States

Treesearch

Richard M. Godman; Gayne G. Erdmann

1992-01-01

The future of the yellow birch supply in the Lake States is uncertain. Growing-stock volume has declined more than one third since 1963, prompting the search for better ways to handle the difficult job of regenerating the species.

Approximate Reasoning: Past, Present, Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-27

This note presents a personal view of the state of the art in the representation and manipulation of imprecise and uncertain information by automated ... processing systems. To contrast their objectives and characteristics with the sound deductive procedures of classical logic, methodologies developed

'We are looked down upon and rejected socially': a qualitative study on the experiences of trafficking survivors in Nepal.

PubMed

Dahal, Pranab; Joshi, Sunil Kumar; Swahnberg, Katarina

2015-01-01

The successful reintegration of sexual trafficking survivors into Nepalese society is challenging. This paper aims to explore the trafficking process, abuses faced during sexual slavery,and the challenges faced by women and girl survivors for successful reintegration. This exploratory study used qualitative methods to identify that poverty, illiteracy, lack of opportunities, and varied social stigma initiate the victimization process, and continuity of this vicious circle increases the risk for (re)entrapment. The reasons for sexual trafficking have also become the reasons for restricting survivors from opportunities for growth and mainstreaming. Non-existent support systems, detachment from familial ties, being outcast by society, and an uncertain livelihood make reintegration difficult for survivors.

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. Copyright © 2011 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

PubMed

Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

2016-08-15

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The surprisingly high human efficiency at learning to recognize faces

PubMed Central

Peterson, Matthew F.; Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2009-01-01

We investigated the ability of humans to optimize face recognition performance through rapid learning of individual relevant features. We created artificial faces with discriminating visual information heavily concentrated in single features (nose, eyes, chin or mouth). In each of 2500 learning blocks a feature was randomly selected and retained over the course of four trials, during which observers identified randomly sampled, noisy face images. Observers learned the discriminating feature through indirect feedback, leading to large performance gains. Performance was compared to a learning Bayesian ideal observer, resulting in unexpectedly high learning compared to previous studies with simpler stimuli. We explore various explanations and conclude that the higher learning measured with faces cannot be driven by adaptive eye movement strategies but can be mostly accounted for by suboptimalities in human face discrimination when observers are uncertain about the discriminating feature. We show that an initial bias of humans to use specific features to perform the task even though they are informed that each of four features is equally likely to be the discriminatory feature would lead to seemingly supra-optimal learning. We also examine the possibility of inefficient human integration of visual information across the spatially distributed facial features. Together, the results suggest that humans can show large performance improvement effects in discriminating faces as they learn to identify the feature containing the discriminatory information. PMID:19000918

Reading the Mind in the Eyes or Reading between the Lines? Theory of Mind Predicts Collective Intelligence Equally Well Online and Face-To-Face

PubMed Central

Engel, David; Woolley, Anita Williams; Jing, Lisa X.; Chabris, Christopher F.; Malone, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called “collective intelligence”) predicted a group’s performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members’ ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called “Theory of Mind” or “ToM”). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to “read” the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the “Reading the Mind in the Eyes” test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states. PMID:25514387

Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

1997-01-01

At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

manuscript for publication. Acronyms ABP Assumption-Based Planning ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tool ACR Armored Cavalry Regiment ACTD...decisions. For example, they employ the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) to simplify life cycle cost estimates; other tools are

Living Well with a Serious Illness: Talking with Your Doctor When the Future Is Uncertain

MedlinePlus

... fears? Are you concerned about suffering? Maintaining your dignity? Being a burden to your family? • What is ... help people live their remaining life fully, in dignity, and with little or no pain and other ...

A critical needs assessment for collaborative ecotourism development linked to protected areas in Cross River State, Nigeria

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Brooks; John Neary; Blessing E. Asuquo

2007-01-01

Nigeria has abundant natural resources, and the nation, working with its partners over the years, has made large strides toward conservation of this natural wealth, but the future of Nigeria's natural resources remains uncertain.

When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain outcome, people expressed greater concern about the projected outcomes. In a further experiment involving repeated "games" with a simulated economy, we similarly showed that people allocate more resources to mitigation if there is uncertainty about the timing of an adverse event rather than about the magnitude of its impact.

SPACE: Vision and Reality: Face to Face. Proceedings Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

The proceedings of the 11th National Space Symposium entitled 'Vision and Reality: Face to Face' is presented. Technological areas discussed include the following sections: Vision for the future; Positioning for the future; Remote sensing, the emerging era; space opportunities, Competitive vision with acquisition reality; National security requirements in space; The world is into space; and The outlook for space. An appendice is also attached.

Patients' experience with cancer recurrence: a meta-ethnography.

PubMed

Wanat, Marta; Boulton, Mary; Watson, Eila

2016-03-01

Recurrence is a difficult stage in the cancer journey as it brings to the fore the life-threatening nature of the illness. This meta-ethnography examines and synthesises the findings of qualitative research regarding patients' experience of cancer recurrence. A systematic search of the qualitative studies published between January 1994 to April 2014 was undertaken. Seventeen relevant papers were identified, and a meta-ethnography was conducted. Six third-order concepts were developed to capture patients' experiences: experiencing emotional turmoil following diagnosis, which described the emotional impact of diagnosis and the influence of previous experiences on how the news were received; experiencing otherness, encompassing changed relationships; seeking support in the health care system, describing the extent of information needs and the importance of the relationship with health care professionals; adjusting to a new prognosis and uncertain future, highlighting the changes associated with uncertainty; finding strategies to deal with recurrence, describing ways of maintaining emotional well-being and regaining a sense of control over cancer; and facing mortality, describing the difficulties in facing death-related concerns and associated consequences. This meta-ethnography clarifies the fundamental aspects of patients' experience of recurrence. It suggests that health care professionals can promote a positive experience of care and help lessen the psychosocial impact of recurrence by providing information in an approachable way and being sensitive to their changing needs. It also points to the importance of supporting patients in adopting strategies to regain a sense of control and to address their potential mortality and its impact on loved ones. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to more homogeneous production systems over time, which ultimately entail risky adaptation options under future water supply availability or increased drought frequency scenarios. Lastly, our analysis has shown the flexibility of applying SCA toward examining uncertainty surrounding future states of nature under climate change.

The Role of Threat Level and Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) in Anxiety: An Experimental Test of IU Theory.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Schmidt, Norman B

2017-07-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within mood- and anxiety-related disorders. The extant literature has suggested that individuals high in IU interpret uncertainty more negatively. Furthermore, theoretical models of IU posit that those elevated in IU may experience an uncertain threat as more anxiety provoking than a certain threat. However, no research to date has experimentally manipulated the certainty of an impending threat while utilizing an in vivo stressor. In the current study, undergraduate participants (N = 79) were randomized to one of two conditions: certain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would give a 3-minute speech) or uncertain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would flip a coin to determine whether or not they would give a 3-minute speech). Participants also completed self-report questionnaires measuring their baseline state anxiety, baseline trait IU, and prespeech state anxiety. Results indicated that trait IU was associated with greater state anticipatory anxiety when the prospect of giving a speech was made uncertain (i.e., uncertain condition). Further, findings indicated no significant difference in anticipatory state anxiety among individuals high in IU when comparing an uncertain versus certain threat (i.e., uncertain and certain threat conditions, respectively). Furthermore, results found no significant interaction between condition and trait IU when predicting state anticipatory anxiety. This investigation is the first to test a crucial component of IU theory while utilizing an ecologically valid paradigm. Results of the present study are discussed in terms of theoretical models of IU and directions for future work. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Appropriateness criteria predict outcomes for sinus surgery and may aid in future patient selection.

PubMed

Beswick, Daniel M; Mace, Jess C; Soler, Zachary M; Ayoub, Noel F; Rudmik, Luke; DeConde, Adam S; Smith, Timothy L

2018-05-14

Appropriateness criteria to determine surgical candidacy for chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) have recently been described. This study stratified patients who underwent endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) according to these new appropriateness criteria and evaluated postoperative improvements among appropriateness categories. Adult patients with uncomplicated CRS electing ESS were prospectively enrolled in a multi-institutional cohort study between March 2011 and June 2015 to assess outcomes. Subsequently, appropriateness criteria that consider preoperative medical therapy, 22-item SinoNasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22) scores, and Lund-Mackay computed tomography scores were retrospectively applied. A total of 92.6% (436 of 471) were categorized as "appropriate" ESS candidates, 3.8% (18 of 471) as "uncertain," and 3.6% (17 of 471) as "inappropriate." Among uncertain patients, two-thirds (12 of 18) had identifiable reasons for undergoing ESS, most commonly oral corticosteroid intolerance (n = 6). Postoperative follow-up was available for 79% (n = 372). Clinically significant SNOT-22 improvements occurred in both appropriate and uncertain groups (all P < 0.050) but not among the inappropriate group. The inappropriate group reported less mean improvement in SNOT-22 total score compared to appropriate (P = 0.008) and uncertain (P = 0.006) groups. The vast majority of patients (∼93%) who underwent ESS in a multi-institutional research program were identified as appropriate candidates for surgical intervention, as defined by current appropriateness criteria. Valid considerations frequently exist for offering ESS to patients categorized as uncertain. Appropriate and uncertain candidates report similar, clinically significant SNOT-22 improvements following surgery. Patients classified as inappropriate reported significantly less improvement following ESS. Surgical appropriateness criteria may assist in predicting outcomes of ESS. 2b. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Uncertainty: the Curate's egg in financial economics.

PubMed

Pixley, Jocelyn

2014-06-01

Economic theories of uncertainty are unpopular with financial experts. As sociologists, we rightly refuse predictions, but the uncertainties of money are constantly sifted and turned into semi-denial by a financial economics set on somehow beating the future. Picking out 'bits' of the future as 'risk' and 'parts' as 'information' is attractive but socially dangerous, I argue, because money's promises are always uncertain. New studies of uncertainty are reversing sociology's neglect of the unavoidable inability to know the forces that will shape the financial future. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Integrated software system for low level waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worku, G.

1995-12-31

In the continually changing and uncertain world of low level waste management, many generators in the US are faced with the prospect of having to store their waste on site for the indefinite future. This consequently increases the set of tasks performed by the generators in the areas of packaging, characterizing, classifying, screening (if a set of acceptance criteria applies), and managing the inventory for the duration of onsite storage. When disposal sites become available, it is expected that the work will require re-evaluating the waste packages, including possible re-processing, re-packaging, or re-classifying in preparation for shipment for disposal undermore » the regulatory requirements of the time. In this day and age, when there is wide use of computers and computer literacy is at high levels, an important waste management tool would be an integrated software system that aids waste management personnel in conducting these tasks quickly and accurately. It has become evident that such an integrated radwaste management software system offers great benefits to radwaste generators both in the US and other countries. This paper discusses one such approach to integrated radwaste management utilizing some globally accepted radiological assessment software applications.« less

Domestic, international family planning programs at risk.

PubMed

Turnbull, W; Kaeser, L

1998-02-01

The US government has subsidized family planning services domestically and abroad for three decades. For most of that period, the support has been provided with the broad-based backing of both US lawmakers and the general public. However, recent polling indicates that public support for family planning programs remains strong, but not necessarily among legislators. Since Republicans gained control of the US House of Representatives in 1995, a well-organized opposition to government-subsidized family planning has developed. The House leadership has launched attacks to defund and abolish Title X, the core domestic family planning program, and the US Agency for International Development's (USAID) population assistance program. Although these attempts failed, a parallel strategy is being pursued to raise anxieties about the programs and chip away at members' support for them. Family planning supporters in Congress and the White House are on the defensive. Rather than fighting for funding increases and new program initiatives, family planning advocates have been forced to try to just hold their ground. Even though they rest intact, Title X and USAID funding has suffered and the programs' base of congressional support has been seriously compromised. With the current Republican domination of the House, Title X and USAID face an uncertain future.

Alteration of Fatty Acid Oxidation in Tubular Epithelial Cells: From Acute Kidney Injury to Renal Fibrogenesis

PubMed Central

Simon, Noémie; Hertig, Alexandre

2015-01-01

Renal proximal tubular cells are the most energy-demanding cells in the body. The ATP that they use is mostly produced in their mitochondrial and peroxisomal compartments, by the oxidation of fatty acids. When those cells are placed under a biological stress, such as a transient hypoxia, fatty acid oxidation (FAO) is shut down for a period of time that outlasts injury, and carbohydrate oxidation does not take over. Facing those metabolic constraints, surviving tubular epithelial cells exhibit a phenotypic switch that includes cytoskeletal rearrangement and production of extracellular matrix proteins, most probably contributing to acute kidney injury-induced renal fibrogenesis, thence to the development of chronic kidney disease. Here, we review experimental evidence that dysregulation of FAO profoundly affects the fate of tubular epithelial cells, by promoting epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, inflammation, and eventually interstitial fibrosis. Restoring physiological production of energy is undoubtedly a possible therapeutic approach to unlock the mesenchymal reprograming of tubular epithelial cells in the kidney. In this respect, the benefit of the use of fibrates is uncertain, but new drugs that could specifically target this metabolic pathway, and, hopefully, attenuate renal fibrosis merit future research. PMID:26301223

When might an operative complication be regarded as acceptable? Part 2: Judicial factors that influence the finding of fault during surgical litigation

PubMed Central

Blackburn, S; Biggs, H

2015-01-01

In cases where surgeons face litigation over operative misadventure, the result of a trial is uncertain. In order to identify factors in cases of surgical litigation that have influenced the final decision of the courts, we have previously reviewed reported cases where the outcome turned on actions taken by surgeons. We now turn our attention to judicial attitudes to evidence that play a role in the determination of the case. PMID:26263800

The High Plains Aquifer, USA: Groundwater development and sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennehy, K.F.; Litke, D.W.; McMahon, P.B.

2002-01-01

The High Plains Aquifer, located in the United States, is one of the largest freshwater aquifers in the world and is threatened by continued decline in water levels and deteriorating water quality. Understanding the physical and cultural features of this area is essential to assessing the factors that affect this groundwater resource. About 27% of the irrigated land in the United States overlies this aquifer, which yields about 30% of the nation's groundwater used for irrigation of crops including wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton and alfalfa. In addition, the aquifer provides drinking water to 82% of the 2.3 million people who live within the aquifer boundary. The High Plains Aquifer has been significantly impacted by human activities. Groundwater withdrawals from the aquifer exceed recharge in many areas, resulting in substantial declines in groundwater level. Residents once believed that the aquifer was an unlimited resource of high-quality water, but they now face the prospect that much of the water may be gone in the near future. Also, agricultural chemicals are affecting the groundwater quality. Increasing concentrations of nitrate and salinity can first impair the use of the water for public supply and then affect its suitability for irrigation. A variety of technical and institutional measures are currently being planned and implemented across the aquifer area in an attempt to sustain this groundwater resource for future generations. However, because groundwater withdrawals remain high and water quality impairments are becoming more commonplace, the sustainability of the High Plains Aquifer is uncertain.

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

the administration’s plans to de - ploy BMD components in Bulgaria and Romania by 2015, and has fiercely criticized global zero both in terms of the...Military Doctrine, Moscow tried to fight off politically and diplomatically the expanding U.S. BMD program and, in particular, U.S. plans to de - ploy a...has encountered major de - lays and its future remains uncertain. Modernization of the air leg has been postponed—Russia plans to rely on existing

The Future of Character Education and Social-Emotional Learning: "The Need for Whole School and Community-Linked Approaches"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elias, Maurice J.

2014-01-01

In an era of change, preparing our youth for an uncertain future is akin to building the airplane while it is in flight. Since we do not have the luxury of putting development on hold until we figure out the destination and the kind of plane we need to get there, we must fly anyway. This article employs an airplane analogy to illustrate the fact…

‘We are looked down upon and rejected socially’: a qualitative study on the experiences of trafficking survivors in Nepal

PubMed Central

Dahal, Pranab; Joshi, Sunil Kumar; Swahnberg, Katarina

2015-01-01

Background The successful reintegration of sexual trafficking survivors into Nepalese society is challenging. This paper aims to explore the trafficking process, abuses faced during sexual slavery,and the challenges faced by women and girl survivors for successful reintegration. Method This exploratory study used qualitative methods to identify that poverty, illiteracy, lack of opportunities, and varied social stigma initiate the victimization process, and continuity of this vicious circle increases the risk for (re)entrapment. Result The reasons for sexual trafficking have also become the reasons for restricting survivors from opportunities for growth and mainstreaming. Conclusion Non-existent support systems, detachment from familial ties, being outcast by society, and an uncertain livelihood make reintegration difficult for survivors. PMID:26584683

Population, Resources, Environment: An Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Repetto, Robert

1987-01-01

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of…

Toward Sustainable Water Resource Management: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

The United States has derived significant economic benefit from an abundant and high-quality water supply. The ability of the nation to continue this pace into the future is uncertain because of a number of significant challenges. These include increasing water demand because of ...

EPA'S ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS BRANCH: PLANNING FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The seminar will address two topics: 1) a brief overview of Dr. Hammer’s professional experiences that preceded his appointment with the Environmental Protection Agency; and 2) a summary of current projects being planned by the Ecological Effects Branch of the Environmental Prote...

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts are diverse, long-term, and not easily predictable. Adapting to climate change requires making context specific and forward-looking decisions regarding a variety of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when the future is highly uncertain. EPA scientis...

Transportation planning implications of automated/connected vehicles on Texas highways : project summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Through outreach to stakeholders during the workshops, researchers found that there is a need to be able to explain AV/CV technology and its impacts on long-range transportation plans. Given that the future is uncertain, planners either choose to ign...

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

2017-12-01

The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

Occupational Education Today. New Directions for Community Colleges, Number 33.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arns, Kathleen F., Ed.

1981-01-01

This collection of essays examines issues that educators must address to maintain occupational education's prominent role in the future. Kathleen F. Arns considers the implications of uncertain enrollment patterns, changing delivery systems, an uneasy economic climate, government policies, and collaboration efforts. The history of occupational…

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES (PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

Polymerization of epoxidized triglycerides with fluorosulfonic acid

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of triglycerides as agri-based renewable raw materials for the development of new products is highly desirable in view of uncertain future petroleum prices. A new method of polymerizing epoxidized soybean oil has been devised with the use of fluorosulfonic acid. Depending on the reaction con...

Transportation Efficiency Act to End Oil Addiction: Securing America’s Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-17

250 to $300 billion.20 These numbers represent an uneasy dependence that the nation maintains on foreign suppliers. General Charles Wald , USAF (RET... Lisa A, The Geopolitics of Energy: Emerging Trends, Changing Landscapes, Uncertain Times (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International

Emotional facial expressions differentially influence predictions and performance for face recognition.

PubMed

Nomi, Jason S; Rhodes, Matthew G; Cleary, Anne M

2013-01-01

This study examined how participants' predictions of future memory performance are influenced by emotional facial expressions. Participants made judgements of learning (JOLs) predicting the likelihood that they would correctly identify a face displaying a happy, angry, or neutral emotional expression in a future two-alternative forced-choice recognition test of identity (i.e., recognition that a person's face was seen before). JOLs were higher for studied faces with happy and angry emotional expressions than for neutral faces. However, neutral test faces with studied neutral expressions had significantly higher identity recognition rates than neutral test faces studied with happy or angry expressions. Thus, these data are the first to demonstrate that people believe happy and angry emotional expressions will lead to better identity recognition in the future relative to neutral expressions. This occurred despite the fact that neutral expressions elicited better identity recognition than happy and angry expressions. These findings contribute to the growing literature examining the interaction of cognition and emotion.

Contextual Uncertainties, Human Mobility, and Perceived Food Environment: The Uncertain Geographic Context Problem in Food Access Research.

PubMed

Chen, Xiang; Kwan, Mei-Po

2015-09-01

We examined the uncertainty of the contextual influences on food access through an analytic framework of the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). We first examined the compounding effects of two kinds of spatiotemporal uncertainties on people's everyday efforts to procure food and then outlined three key dimensions (food access in real time, temporality of the food environment, and perceived nutrition environment) in which research on food access must improve to better represent the contributing environmental influences that operate at the individual level. Guidelines to address the UGCoP in future food access research are provided to account for the multidimensional influences of the food environment on dietary behaviors.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Identification and Validation of Human Missing Proteins and Peptides in Public Proteome Databases: Data Mining Strategy.

PubMed

Elguoshy, Amr; Hirao, Yoshitoshi; Xu, Bo; Saito, Suguru; Quadery, Ali F; Yamamoto, Keiko; Mitsui, Toshiaki; Yamamoto, Tadashi

2017-12-01

In an attempt to complete human proteome project (HPP), Chromosome-Centric Human Proteome Project (C-HPP) launched the journey of missing protein (MP) investigation in 2012. However, 2579 and 572 protein entries in the neXtProt (2017-1) are still considered as missing and uncertain proteins, respectively. Thus, in this study, we proposed a pipeline to analyze, identify, and validate human missing and uncertain proteins in open-access transcriptomics and proteomics databases. Analysis of RNA expression pattern for missing proteins in Human protein Atlas showed that 28% of them, such as Olfactory receptor 1I1 ( O60431 ), had no RNA expression, suggesting the necessity to consider uncommon tissues for transcriptomic and proteomic studies. Interestingly, 21% had elevated expression level in a particular tissue (tissue-enriched proteins), indicating the importance of targeting such proteins in their elevated tissues. Additionally, the analysis of RNA expression level for missing proteins showed that 95% had no or low expression level (0-10 transcripts per million), indicating that low abundance is one of the major obstacles facing the detection of missing proteins. Moreover, missing proteins are predicted to generate fewer predicted unique tryptic peptides than the identified proteins. Searching for these predicted unique tryptic peptides that correspond to missing and uncertain proteins in the experimental peptide list of open-access MS-based databases (PA, GPM) resulted in the detection of 402 missing and 19 uncertain proteins with at least two unique peptides (≥9 aa) at <(5 × 10 -4 )% FDR. Finally, matching the native spectra for the experimentally detected peptides with their SRMAtlas synthetic counterparts at three transition sources (QQQ, QTOF, QTRAP) gave us an opportunity to validate 41 missing proteins by ≥2 proteotypic peptides.

Facing the New Millennium: Making Friends with the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roueche, John E.; Roueche, Suanne D.

2000-01-01

Asserts that building relationships with constituents remains the best strategy for ensuring the future institutional survival of community colleges. Examines some of the conditions that community colleges will be facing in the future, such as increasing numbers of students to serve, the continuing need for remedial/developmental education, and…

Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the near Future of American Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladner, Matthew

2015-01-01

"Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

2012-12-01

The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the uncertainties and the need to candidly assess them. It can be applied to exploring policies under various hazard scenarios and mitigating other natural hazards.ariation in total cost, the sum of expected loss and mitigation cost, as a function of mitigation level. The optimal level of mitigation, n*, minimizes the total cost. The expected loss depends on the hazard model, so the better the hazard model, the better the mitigation policy (Stein and Stein, 2012).

Where We Are Now

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guth, Douglas J.

2017-01-01

In 2012, the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) released a report stating, in no uncertain terms, that "the American dream is imperiled." Data supporting this declaration highlighted a sagging economy and a record number of Americans who had fallen into poverty. A product of the 21st-Century Commission on the Future of…

Observations on Leadership, Problem Solving, and Preferred Futures of Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puncochar, Judith

2013-01-01

A focus on enrollments, rankings, uncertain budgets, and branding efforts to operate universities could have serious implications for discussions of sustainable solutions to complex problems and the decision-making processes of leaders. The Authentic Leadership Model for framing ill-defined problems in higher education is posited to improve the…

Distribution of Pacific Marten in Coastal Oregon

Treesearch

Katie M Moriarty; John D Bailey; Sharon E Smythe; Jake Verschuyl

2016-01-01

Information on the distribution of rare and little known species is critical for managers and biologists challenged with species conservation in an uncertain future. Pacific Martens (Martes caurina) historically resided throughout Oregon and northern California’s coastal forests, but were considered extinct until 1996 when a population in northern...

Britain and Energy Policy: Problems of Interdependence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, John

1973-01-01

Discusses Britain's energy policies and changing energy sources since World War II. North Sea natural gas and oil should prevent shortages in the near future. Planning is complicated by Britain's entry into the European Common Market, questionable progress in nuclear production, and the uncertain availability of Middle Eastern oil. (JR)

Valuing Initial Teacher Education at Master's Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Clare; Brant, Jacek; Abrahams, Ian; Yandell, John

2012-01-01

The future of Master's-level work in initial teacher education (ITE) in England seems uncertain. Whilst the coalition government has expressed support for Master's-level work, its recent White Paper focuses on teaching skills as the dominant form of professional development. This training discourse is in tension with the view of professional…

USING SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATING IMPACTS TO GROUND WATER AT PETROLEUM RELEASE SITES - WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

Regulators and consultants alike are routinely tasked with predicting potential future impacts to ground water resources from leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. Site data is usually sparse, variable, and uncertain at best. However, this type of data can be evaluated ...

Soil modulates the effect of precipitation seasonality on bioenergy crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Questions/Methods Future climate change scenarios remain uncertain with respect to precipitation amounts and variability. In the U.S. Great Plains, spring precipitation is expected to decrease in the lower Great Plains but increase 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, suggesting pot...

How to Survive the Next Five Years.

PubMed

Jackson, Rem

2016-01-01

The rapid pace of change in medical practice combined with increasingly heavy regulation has created a negative mindset for many practitioners. Although the future of medical practice is uncertain, there are fundamentals that, if understood, can ensure the success of private practitioners. These include efficient practice management and effective practice marketing.

Nonflammable Substitute for PCB Introduced in U.K.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chemical and Engineering News, 1984

1984-01-01

Discusses employment prospects for chemists and chemical engineers working in energy research and development (R & D) based on the Department of Energy report "Energy-related Manpower, 1983." Indicates that conclusions related to R & D funding and employment are uncertain because of the difficulty in predicting future changes in…

Does Mother Nature Really Sell Margarine?: The Uncertain Rural Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Peter

There exists a question as to whether United States society and its agricultural system will continue to follow the long-term trend of Western civilization or move in a new direction. The "modernization trend" of Western civilization has 4 components: scientification of knowledge, secularization of human values, industrialization of…

Towards the Discovery of Learner Metacognition from Reflective Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Andrew; Kitto, Kirsty; Bruza, Peter

2016-01-01

Modern society demands renewed attention on the competencies required to best equip students for a dynamic and uncertain future. We present exploratory work based on the premise that metacognitive and reflective competencies are essential for this task. Bringing the concepts of metacognition and reflection together into a conceptual model within…

Getting Started

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sommers, Dixie

2012-01-01

In an uncertain economy, reliable information about tomorrow's labor market can be a valuable tool in career planning. Understanding the future workforce helps an individual prepare for his/her place in it. When choosing among careers--or assisting others who are making such choices--it helps to know a few basics: the types and number of jobs…

Industry and the Academy: An Uncertain Alliance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drake, R. M., Jr.

1974-01-01

Discusses the divergence in interest and philosophy between the academy and industry, beginning with World War II. Suggests that engineering faculties and industry take measures to restore their rapport which is necessary for the technological society to ensure a success in man's quest for future well being and progress. (CC)

A Foot in the Door of an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Bill

2010-01-01

The infamous equivalent or lower qualifications (ELQs) regulation--the withdrawal of funding from students who have previously gained a higher education qualification--has cast a long shadow over adult continuing education in English higher education since its introduction in 2007. Together with the attack on funded adult provision in local…

Long-term thinning alters ponderosa pine reproduction in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Kelsey N. Flathers; Thomas E. Kolb; John B. Bradford; Kristen M. Waring; W. Keith Moser

2016-01-01

The future of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) forests in the southwestern United States is uncertain because climate-change-induced stresses are expected to increase tree mortality and place greater constraints on regeneration. Silvicultural treatments, which include thinning, are increasingly being used to address forest health concerns by...

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

The Uncertain Future of the Central City.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternlieb, George; Hughes, James W.

This paper describes the decline and polarization of American cities into two separate and coterminous systems: the city of the poor, characterized by the function of redistribution (i.e., public welfare benefits); and the city of the elite, a city of information processing, economic facilitation, and consumption. Demographic trends and social and…

Impacts of Future Climate, Emission, and Land Use Changes on Aerosols and Air Quality over the Continental

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in climate, emission, and land use in the U.S. over the next century are imminent. The response of geologic, biogenic, and anthropogenic aerosol to interactions between these changes, however, are more uncertain and difficult to quantify. To explore these interactions, ...

Mobile Media Best Practices: Lessons From 5 Years of "OR Magazine"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madison, Ed

2015-01-01

Digital publications now provide immersive interactive experiences for users of tablets and other mobile media devices. The ever-changing technology challenges educators to adapt curricula to better prepare students for an uncertain future. This article chronicles the creation of award-winning "OR Magazine" at University of Oregon, which…

Interactive videoconsultation is a feasible method for neurological in-patient assessment.

PubMed

Craig, J; Patterson, V; Russell, C; Wootton, R

2000-11-01

To evaluate the feasibility of interactive videoconsultation (IATV) as a means by which neurologists might assess patients admitted with neurological symptoms to hospitals distant from a neurological centre, we studied 25 unselected patients using interactive videoconsultation (IATV) and then validated the IATV diagnoses and management plans at a later face-to-face consultation. IATV consultation led to an eventual diagnosis in 23 out of 25 patients, with one diagnosis being changed and one remaining uncertain. The IATV management plans were felt to be appropriate for all patients in study. Twelve patients were able to be discharged from hospital on the same day as IATV on the advice of the neurologist. It is therefore practical to assess patients admitted with neurological symptoms to distant hospitals using IATV and this may result in more efficient use of in-patient resources.

Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education. Policy Paper Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladner, Matthew

2015-01-01

"Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

Experimental gravitation in space - Is there a future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wharton, R. A.; McKay, C. P.; Mancinelli, R. L.; Simmons, G. M.

Experimental gravitation enters the 1990s with a past full of successes, but with a future full of uncertainties. Intellectually, the field is as vigorous as ever, with major thrusts in three main areas: the search for gravitational radiation, the study of post and post-post Newtonian effects, and the detection of hypothetical feeble new interactions. It is the only branch of space research involved in fundamental physics. But politically and financially, the future is uncertain. Competition for funding and for flight opportunities will be stiff for the foreseeable future, both with other disciplines such as astrophysics, planetary science and the military, and within experimental gravitation itself. Difficult choices lie ahead. This paper reviews the current state of the field and attempts to peer into the future.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Social and emotional relevance in face processing: happy faces of future interaction partners enhance the late positive potential

PubMed Central

Bublatzky, Florian; Gerdes, Antje B. M.; White, Andrew J.; Riemer, Martin; Alpers, Georg W.

2014-01-01

Human face perception is modulated by both emotional valence and social relevance, but their interaction has rarely been examined. Event-related brain potentials (ERP) to happy, neutral, and angry facial expressions with different degrees of social relevance were recorded. To implement a social anticipation task, relevance was manipulated by presenting faces of two specific actors as future interaction partners (socially relevant), whereas two other face actors remained non-relevant. In a further control task all stimuli were presented without specific relevance instructions (passive viewing). Face stimuli of four actors (2 women, from the KDEF) were randomly presented for 1s to 26 participants (16 female). Results showed an augmented N170, early posterior negativity (EPN), and late positive potential (LPP) for emotional in contrast to neutral facial expressions. Of particular interest, face processing varied as a function of experimental tasks. Whereas task effects were observed for P1 and EPN regardless of instructed relevance, LPP amplitudes were modulated by emotional facial expression and relevance manipulation. The LPP was specifically enhanced for happy facial expressions of the anticipated future interaction partners. This underscores that social relevance can impact face processing already at an early stage of visual processing. These findings are discussed within the framework of motivated attention and face processing theories. PMID:25076881

Paradigms for parasite conservation.

PubMed

Dougherty, Eric R; Carlson, Colin J; Bueno, Veronica M; Burgio, Kevin R; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Clements, Christopher F; Seidel, Dana P; Harris, Nyeema C

2016-08-01

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite-inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid-20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host-density threshold and cost-benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host-parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Vet Tech Field Beckons, Even in an Uncertain Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frederick, Bill

2010-01-01

In a time of rising unemployment and increasing economic uncertainty, some fields still beckon with promises of continued growth, bright futures and handsome paychecks. And one of the most promising of all is the field of veterinary technology. This article features the Veterinary Technology Program at St. Petersburg College (SPC) in Florida.…

Stories Lost and Found: Mobilizing Imagination in Literacy Research and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enciso, Patricia E.

2017-01-01

As literacy scholars, we continually engage with the ongoing politics of imagination in everyday life across silenced histories and uncertain futures. In this article, I draw on sociocultural theories and philosophies of imagination as well as narrative and global discourse theories to argue that literacy research, in the context of social…

Education for Sustainable Development: Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation Expertise in Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahey, Shireen; Verstraten, Luke; Berry, Ashton J.

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of an innovative education capacity assessment and delivery project to promote sustainable development in large ocean states in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region. Science education can help prepare the present and coming generations for stability in an uncertain future. Limited financial, geographical and…

The Politics of Science Funding: Is the Fault in Our Stars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldston, David

2018-01-01

Future levels of funding for the astronomical and other sciences seem more uncertain than ever. What factors are responsible and which can scientists do something about? The story is much more complicated -- and fluid -- than the simple narrative about an "anti-science" political atmosphere that scientists sometimes settle on.

Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

EPA Science Inventory

Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

The Role of the Teacher in an Uncertain World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shapiro, Leo J.; Rodin, Mimi

This paper presents the results of a series of surveys designed to determine the attitudes of parents of school-aged children and other adults toward schools and their children's future, with a view toward offering encouragement to beginning teachers. Cross sections of the population were sampled nationwide, throughout the state of Illinois, and…

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

Pacific Yew: A Facultative Riparian Conifer with an Uncertain Future

Treesearch

Stanley Scher; Bert Schwarzschild

1989-01-01

Increasing demands for Pacific yew bark, a source of an anticancer agent, have generated interest in defining the yew resource and in exploring strategies to conserve this species. The distribution, riparian requirements and ecosystem functions of yew populations in coastal and inland forests of northern California are outlined and alternative approaches to conserving...

Is There a History of Educational Philosophy? John White vs the Historical Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muir, James R.

2004-01-01

In his recent review of Amelie Rorty's collection, "Philosophers on Education: New Historical Perspectives," John White makes the uncontroversial observation that the future of philosophy of education within Educational Studies is uncertain. He chooses to be optimistic, hoping that "the climate in which philosophising about education, whether by…

Have Intellectual Freedom and Privacy Questions? Help Is on the Way!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Helen R.

2015-01-01

School librarians are experiencing upheaval and controversy in education today. They are coping with the implementation of (and battles over) the Common Core State Standards, the uncertain future of their jobs, and the rapidly changing nature of school libraries. Despite the flux and instability in education, the importance of intellectual freedom…

The Literary Anthology, Revised and Excised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Jennifer

2007-01-01

This article reports that "The Norton Anthology of English Literature" has new competition in a genre with an uncertain future. The first edition of the Norton appeared in 1962. Since then, the mighty tome has gone through eight editions and introduced generations of undergraduates to the joys (or sorrows) of Chaucer, Milton, and Keats. For many,…

An Uncertain Future. Review, 1975-76 to 1977-78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of Ontario Universities, Toronto.

The development of the Ontario university system from 1975-76 to 1977-78 is traced, with focus on the deteriorating financial situation of the past few years and the impact of recently declining enrollments. The growth of cooperative activities among the universities has included the planning of graduate programs, library cataloging, instructional…

Unintended Consequences: An Uncertain Future for Distance Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halfond, Jay A.

2011-01-01

While most in the academic community know about the attempt to rein in the for-profits, few are aware of its collateral damage. In October, the Department of Education (DOE) issued its Program Integrity Rules, intended to protect federal funds especially from those for-profit institutions with high student loan default rates. Well-intentioned…

Steering the Ship through Uncertain Waters: Empirical Analysis and the Future of Evangelical Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rine, P. Jesse; Guthrie, David S.

2016-01-01

Leaders of evangelical Christian colleges must navigate a challenging environment shaped by public concern about college costs and educational quality, federal inclinations toward increased regulation, and lingering fallout from the Great Recession. Proceeding from the premise that empirical analysis empowers institutional actors to lead well in…

Adaptive economic and ecological forest management under risk

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou

2015-01-01

Background: Forest managers must deal with inherently stochastic ecological and economic processes. The future growth of trees is uncertain, and so is their value. The randomness of low-impact, high frequency or rare catastrophic shocks in forest growth has significant implications in shaping the mix of tree species and the forest landscape...

Developing Second Graders' Creativity through Literacy-Science Integrated Lessons on Lifecycles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Angela Naomi; Rule, Audrey C.

2012-01-01

Young children need to develop creative problem-solving skills to ensure success in an uncertain future workplace. Although most teachers recognize the importance of creativity, they do not always know how integrate it with content learning. This repeated measures study on animal and plant lifecycles examined student learning of vocabulary and…

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Maintaining the Marine Corps’ Tank Dominant Combat Overmatch in an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-12

Company, 1999), 6. 2 2011 Tank Conference Report. (Dated 02 Feb 2011) 3 Kenneth E. Estes. Marines Under Armor : The Marine Corps and the Armored...Kenneth W. Marines Under Armor : The Marine Corps and the Armored Fighting Vehicle, 1916-2000. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2000. Ford

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Barriers to applying advanced high-temperature materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premkumar, M. K.

1993-01-01

During the past 25 years, aerospace engineers and material scientists have made significant technical progress toward developing next-generation aircraft. However, while advanced high-temperature materials continue to be developed, the outlook for their future application is uncertain and will depend on the ability of these materials to satisfy a more diverse market.

Student Expression: The Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bathon, Justin M.; McCarthy, Martha M.

2008-01-01

On June 25, 2007, the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision in "Morse v. Frederick", a long-awaited ruling regarding student speech in public schools. For nearly twenty years, the Supreme Court had been silent on the issue while lower courts attempted to apply the rules announced in previous Supreme Court decisions. It is…

ACA dependent coverage provision reduced high out-of-pocket health care spending for young adults.

PubMed

Busch, Susan H; Golberstein, Ezra; Meara, Ellen

2014-08-01

Since September 2010 the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has required that insurers allow children to remain as dependents on their parents' private insurance plans until age twenty-six. Studies have shown that this provision increased coverage rates among young adults. In this article we analyze whether the provision also protected young adults from large and uncertain out-of-pocket expenses. We found that the policy was associated with a statistically significant reduction in the share of young adults facing annual out-of-pocket expenditures greater than $1,500 (decreasing from 4.2 percent to 2.9 percent), compared to an increase in the proportion of their slightly older peers facing such expenditures (increasing from 4.4 percent to 5.4 percent), a net difference of -2.4 percentage points, or 57 percent. We conclude that the dependent coverage provision in the ACA provides financial protection for young adults at a time when they often face high debt burden but low wages. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

'He always thinks he is nothing': The psychosocial impact of discrimination on adolescent refugees in urban Uganda.

PubMed

Stark, Lindsay; DeCormier Plosky, Willyanne; Horn, Rebecca; Canavera, Mark

2015-12-01

Armed conflict causes massive displacement, erodes the social fabric of communities, and threatens the healthy development of a nation's future - its youth. Although more than half of the world's registered refugees under the age of eighteen currently reside in urban areas, research on the unique needs of and realities experienced by this population remain limited. In Uganda, as in many refugee-receiving countries, most regulated refugee protections and entitlements fail to extend beyond the confines of official settlements or camps. This dearth of support, in combination with few material resources, uncertain local connections, and little knowledge of the language, leaves refugee families vulnerable to the added burden of an unwelcome reception in cities. Drawing on qualitative data from a study conducted in March and April 2013 with Congolese and Somali adolescents, caregivers, and service providers in refugee settlements in Kampala, this manuscript explores the pervasive nature of discrimination against urban refugees and its effects upon adolescent well-being. Findings suggest that discrimination not only negatively impacts acculturation as youth pursue social recognition in the classroom and among neighborhood peers, but it also impedes help-seeking behavior by caregivers and restricts their ability to ameliorate protection concerns, thereby lowering adolescents' psychosocial well-being. Youth reported low self-worth, withdrawal from school, and an adverse turn toward street connections. Targeted and innovative strategies along with reformed policies that address the unique challenges facing urban refugees are paramount to ensuring that young people in this population experience greater protection, well-being, and future success. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol

2008-02-01

The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape,more » methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.« less

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

PubMed

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying Differences between Depressed Adolescent Suicide Ideators and Attempters

PubMed Central

Auerbach, Randy P.; Millner, Alexander J.; Stewart, Jeremy G.; Esposito, Erika

2015-01-01

Background Adolescent depression and suicide are pressing public health concerns, and identifying key differences among suicide ideators and attempters is critical. The goal of the current study is to test whether depressed adolescent suicide attempters report greater anhedonia severity and exhibit aberrant effort-cost computations in the face of uncertainty. Methods Depressed adolescents (n = 101) ages 13–19 years were administered structured clinical interviews to assess current mental health disorders and a history of suicidality (suicide ideators = 55, suicide attempters = 46). Then, participants completed self-report instruments assessing symptoms of suicidal ideation, depression, anhedonia, and anxiety as well as a computerized effort-cost computation task. Results Compared with depressed adolescent suicide ideators, attempters report greater anhedonia severity, even after concurrently controlling for symptoms of suicidal ideation, depression, and anxiety. Additionally, when completing the effort-cost computation task, suicide attempters are less likely to pursue the difficult, high value option when outcomes are uncertain. Follow-up, trial-level analyses of effort-cost computations suggest that receipt of reward does not influence future decision-making among suicide attempters, however, suicide ideators exhibit a win-stay approach when receiving rewards on previous trials. Limitations Findings should be considered in light of limitations including a modest sample size, which limits generalizability, and the cross-sectional design. Conclusions Depressed adolescent suicide attempters are characterized by greater anhedonia severity, which may impair the ability to integrate previous rewarding experiences to inform future decisions. Taken together, this may generate a feeling of powerlessness that contributes to increased suicidality and a needless loss of life. PMID:26233323

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of information that we will gather in the future) and on the formulation of the optimization problem (risk-based vs. rule-based approach). The application of the framework is demonstrated on catchments in Germany. References: DWA (Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft Abwasser und Abfall eV.) 2011. Merkblatt DWA-M 507-1: Deiche an Fließgewässern. (A. Bieberstein, Ed.). Hennef: DWA Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e. V. Hall, J., & Solomatine, D. 2008. A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 85-98. http://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635339 Špačková, O. & Straub, D. 2017. Long-term adaption decisions via fully and partially observable Markov decision processes. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. In print.

Born from a flood: The Salton Sea and its story of survival

DOE PAGES

Tompson, Andrew F. B.

2016-02-02

The Salton Sea is a terminal lake located in the deepest point of the topographically closed Salton Trough in southeastern California. It is currently the largest lake in area in the state. It was created by a flooding event along the Colorado River in 1905–1907, similar to the way historical floods over past centuries created ephemeral incarnations of ancient Lake Cahuilla in the same location. Its position at the center of today’s Imperial Valley, a hot and arid locale home to some of the most productive irrigated agricultural lands in the United States, has ensured its ongoing survival through amore » delicate balance between agricultural runoff, its principal form of input, and vast evaporation losses. Nevertheless, its parallel role as a recreational resource and important wildlife habitat, established over its first century of existence, is threatened by increasing salinity decreasing water quality, and reduced water allocations from the Colorado River that feeds the valley’s agriculture. Furthermore, the Salton Sea faces an increasingly uncertain future that will be influenced by reduced water imports from the Colorado River, demands for additional water sources to support farming and energy industries in the valley, and needs to stabilize the lake salinity, maintain recreational resources, and preserve what have become important ecosystems and wildlife habitats.« less

Only the carrot, not the stick: incorporating trust into the enforcement of regulation.

PubMed

Mendoza, Juan P; Wielhouwer, Jacco L

2015-01-01

New enforcement strategies allow agents to gain the regulator's trust and consequently face a lower audit probability. Prior research suggests that, in order to prevent lower compliance, a reduction in the audit probability (the "carrot") must be compensated with the introduction of a higher penalty for non-compliance (the "stick"). However, such carrot-and-stick strategies reflect neither the concept of trust nor the strategies observed in practice. In response to this, we define trust-based regulation as a strategy that incorporates rules that allow trust to develop, and using a generic (non-cooperative) game of tax compliance, we examine whether trust-based regulation is feasible (i.e., whether, in equilibrium, a reduction in the audit probability, without ever increasing the penalty for non-compliance, does not lead to reduced compliance). The model shows that trust-based regulation is feasible when the agent sufficiently values the future. In line with the concept of trust, this strategy is feasible when the regulator is uncertain about the agent's intentions. Moreover, the model shows that (i) introducing higher penalties makes trust-based regulation less feasible, and (ii) combining trust and forgiveness can lead to a lower audit probability for both trusted and distrusted agents. Policy recommendations often point toward increasing deterrence. This model shows that the opposite can be optimal.

Born from a flood: The Salton Sea and its story of survival

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tompson, Andrew F. B.

The Salton Sea is a terminal lake located in the deepest point of the topographically closed Salton Trough in southeastern California. It is currently the largest lake in area in the state. It was created by a flooding event along the Colorado River in 1905–1907, similar to the way historical floods over past centuries created ephemeral incarnations of ancient Lake Cahuilla in the same location. Its position at the center of today’s Imperial Valley, a hot and arid locale home to some of the most productive irrigated agricultural lands in the United States, has ensured its ongoing survival through amore » delicate balance between agricultural runoff, its principal form of input, and vast evaporation losses. Nevertheless, its parallel role as a recreational resource and important wildlife habitat, established over its first century of existence, is threatened by increasing salinity decreasing water quality, and reduced water allocations from the Colorado River that feeds the valley’s agriculture. Furthermore, the Salton Sea faces an increasingly uncertain future that will be influenced by reduced water imports from the Colorado River, demands for additional water sources to support farming and energy industries in the valley, and needs to stabilize the lake salinity, maintain recreational resources, and preserve what have become important ecosystems and wildlife habitats.« less

The Impact of the ACA's Medicaid Expansion on Hospitals' Uncompensated Care Burden and the Potential Effects of Repeal.

PubMed

Dranove, David; Gartwaite, Craig; Ody, Christopher

2017-05-01

ISSUE: By increasing health insurance coverage, the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid eligibility expansion was also expected to lessen the uncompensated care burden on hospitals. The expansion currently faces an uncertain future. GOAL: To compare the change in hospitals' uncompensated care burden in the 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) that chose to expand Medicaid to the changes in states that did not, and to estimate how these expenses would be affected by repeal or further expansion. METHODS: Analysis of uncompensated care data from Medicare Hospital Cost Reports from 2011 to 2015. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Uncompensated care burdens fell sharply in expansion states between 2013 and 2015, from 3.9 percent to 2.3 percent of operating costs. Estimated savings across all hospitals in Medicaid expansion states totaled $6.2 billion. The largest reductions in uncompensated care were found for hospitals in expansion states that care for the highest proportion of low-income and uninsured patients. Legislation that scales back or eliminates Medicaid expansion is likely to expose these safety-net hospitals to large cost increases. Conversely, if the 19 states that chose not to expand Medicaid were to adopt expansion, their uncompensated care costs also would decrease by an estimated $6.2 billion.

Challenges in Assessing Seismic Hazard in Intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintersberger, E.; Kuebler, S.; Landgraf, A.; Stein, S. A.

2014-12-01

Intraplate regions are often characterized by scattered, clustered and migrating seismicity and the occurrence of low-strain areas next to high-strain ones. Increasing evidence for large paleoearthquakes in such regions together with population growth and development of critical facilities, call for better assessments of earthquake hazards. Existing seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe is based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past 1000 years, as well some active fault data. These observations face important limitations due to the quantity and quality of the available data bases. Even considering the long record of historical events in some populated areas of Europe, this time-span of thousand years likely fails to capture some faults' typical large-event recurrence intervals that are in the order of tens of thousands of years. Paleoseismology helps lengthen the observation window, but only produces point measurements, and preferentially in regions suspected to be seismically active. As a result, the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are quite uncertain, likely to be underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues in particular arise in the heavily populated Rhine Graben and Vienna Basin areas, and in considering the hazard to critical facilities like nuclear power plants posed by low-probability events.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

MULTIPLE CARCINOMATOUS GROWTHS AND SKIN SARCOMA IN A PATIENT WITH CHRONIC ROENTGEN-RAY DERMATOSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuta, A.

A case of an extensive chronic roentgen-ray dermatosis on the face of a 68 year old man is reported which developed approximately thirty years after x- ray treatment for sycosis barbae and eczema on the hands. Both fore-arms were amputated six and fourteen years after radiation therapy because of severe destructive lesions. Within the area of this late chronic roentgen-ray dermatosis on the face (forehead, nose, eyelids) gradually eight malignant tumors developed, i.e., four spinocellulars carcinomas, three basalcell carcinomas, and one polymorphocellular sarcoma. All of the tumors, including polymorphocellulars sarcoma, were sparingly excised with optimum therapeutic and cosmetic results andmore » the patient has now for more than two years shown no signs of relapse. There is only an atypic flat spinocellular lesion on the right ala nasi which is uncertain. (auth)« less

Experiences of Patients Living With Heart Failure: A Descriptive Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Seah, Alvin Chuen Wei; Tan, Khoon Kiat; Huang Gan, Juvena Chew; Wang, Wenru

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the experiences, needs, and coping strategies of patients living with heart failure in Singapore. A descriptive qualitative design was used. A purposive sample of 15 informants was recruited from two cardiology wards of a tertiary public hospital in Singapore. Individual face-to-face interviews were conducted with a semistructured interview guideline that was developed based on a review of the literature and a pilot study. Content analysis was adopted to analyze the data, and four main categories were identified: perceived causes, manifestations, and prognosis; enduring emotions; managing the condition; and needs from health care professionals. The informants were overwhelmed with the experience of living with heart failure due to the disruptive and uncertain nature of the condition. This study offers health care professionals practical and useful suggestions when providing holistic care for patients with heart failure. © The Author(s) 2015.

Postdeployment behavioral health screening: face-to-face versus virtual behavioral health interviews.

PubMed

Sipos, Maurice L; Foran, Heather M; Crane, Maria L; Wood, Michael D; Wright, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Virtual behavioral health (VBH) services are used frequently to address the high demand for behavioral health (BH) services in the military. Few studies have investigated the relationship between the use of VBH services and BH outcomes or preferences for the use of VBH technologies. In this article, we evaluated BH interviews conducted via video teleconferencing (VTC) or face-to-face in terms of BH symptoms, satisfaction rates, stigma, barriers to care, and preferences for future use of BH care. Soldiers (n = 307) from the headquarters element of an operational unit were surveyed 4 months following a 12-month deployment to Iraq. There were no significant differences in satisfaction rates based on interview modality, but significantly more soldiers preferred face-to-face interviews over VTC interviews in the future. Soldiers who preferred face-to-face interviews also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression symptoms than those who preferred VTC interviews. No significant age differences were found in terms of interview modality satisfaction or preference. Soldiers with greater deployment experience were more likely to report that they would not like using VTC if seeking BH care in the future than soldiers with less deployment experience. These findings highlight the importance of promoting choice in type of BH interview modality.

For Illegal College Students, an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horwedel, Dina M.

2006-01-01

With almost two million undocumented children in school and an estimated 65,000 graduating from high school every year, higher education is becoming the new frontier in the immigration debate. In 1982, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the children of illegal immigrants have a right to a free K-12 education. However, the court never extended that…

Achieving the Dream, Uncertain Futures: The Postbaccalaureate Decision-Making Process of Latinx Undocumented Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lara, Argelia; Nava, Pedro E.

2018-01-01

This qualitative study examined the decision-making process of undocumented college students pursuing graduate degrees, and how their commitment to matriculate in higher education programs is shaped by a myriad of social, familial, financial, and institutional factors. This study drew on 2 years of ethnographic data from a sample of 20…

Issues in Financing School-Based Health Centers: A Guide for State Officials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George Washington Univ., Washington, DC.

Despite the recent, unprecedented growth of school-based health centers and the related increased support from state government, the future of school-based health centers is uncertain. Since they can no longer rely on federal support, private insurance, or other commercial sources, each state must develop its own approach to supporting the…

Analysis of the timber situation in Florida, 1995- 2025

Treesearch

Roger C. Conner; Raymond M. Sheffield

2005-01-01

The demand for wood fiber nationwide is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions on forest lands in the West have increased pressure on the South's forest resources to provide more wood. The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. The authors describe the current extent, condition, and availability of...

Unfinished Business: The Uneven Past and Uncertain Future of One Historically Black University's Archives--A Personal Reflection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pevar, Susan Gunn

2011-01-01

This article presents a perspective on how the restructuring of a historically black university's library and resulting closure of its special collections and archives puts important records pertaining to African American history in jeopardy. This article traces the recent history of special collections and archives at the Lincoln University…

The Uncertain Future of Comprehensive Schooling in England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorard, Stephen

2015-01-01

This is an article about secondary schools in England, and what type of school is fair and efficient for a national education system. It discusses what "fair" could mean in this context, summarises some key policy revisions since 1944 in this light, and reminds readers of the damage caused by unfairness within education. Most notably it…

Beyond Counseling and Psychotherapy, There Is a Field. I'll Meet You There

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Timm-Bottos, Janis

2016-01-01

Beyond a counseling or psychotherapy practice, the future of art therapy demands a new type of creativity, solidarity, and social inclusion. This viewpoint explores the art therapy profession and the role of educational practices to envision change in uncertain times. Art therapists have the ability to offer expertise in the serious dilemmas…

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Treesearch

Matthew J. Duveneck; Jonathan R. Thompson; Eric J. Gustafson; Yu Liang; Arjan M. G. de Bruijn

2017-01-01

Context. Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to...

Designing Species Translocation Strategies When Populaton Growth and Future Funding Are Uncertain

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Katherine Ralls; Anthony M. Starfield

2000-01-01

When translocating individuals to found new populations, managers must allocate limited funds among release and monitoring activities that differ in method, cost, and probable result. In addition, managers are increasingly expected to justify the funding decisions they have made. Within the framework of decision analysis, we used robust optimization to formulate and...

Canadian Post-Secondary Education: A Positive Record--An Uncertain Future. Report on Learning in Canada 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Council on Learning, 2006

2006-01-01

This report aims to inform Canadians on the extent to which Canada's post-secondary education sector is contributing to Canadians' social and economic objectives, its ability to respond to a fast-changing global environment, and how Canada's approach to higher education compares with other leading developed countries. Analysis of currently…

Risk Management of the English Universities after the 2008 Financial Crisis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yokoyama, Keiko

2018-01-01

The objective of the paper is to identify whether the global financial crisis in 2008 re-shaped risk management in the English universities in order to avoid future financial turbulence and manage risk in uncertain and insecure environments. The paper examined changes in the risk management mechanism of the English university system between 2008…

Mississippi Blacks and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joubert, Paul E.; Crouch, Ben M.

1977-01-01

Analyzes the impact of the Voting Rights Act on black voter registration in Mississippi. Concludes that the future of black politics is highly uncertain in Mississippi. If the movement on the part of whites to disenfranchise blacks succeeds, and intimidation at the polls continues, advances made in the early 1970s could be seriously undermined.…

Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Melissa Lucash; Johannes Liem; Helen Jenny; Rob Scheller; Kelly Barrett; Brian R. Sturtevant

2016-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly considering how climate change may alter forests' capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services. But identifying potential climate change effects on forests is difficult because interactions among forest growth and mortality, climate change, management, and disturbances are complex and uncertain. Although forest landscape models...

Antioch College: A Celebrated History and an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayford, Elizabeth R.

2011-01-01

On June 7, 2007, the Antioch University board of trustees declared that Antioch College, an independent liberal arts college in Yellow Springs, Ohio, was in a state of financial exigency, and, two days later, voted to suspend college operations after the next academic year. After that year, the board oversaw the closing of the college while…

Post-Secondary Education in Canada: Strategies for Success. Report on Learning in Canada 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Council on Learning, 2007

2007-01-01

In 2006, the Canadian Council on Learning produced the first national overview of post-secondary education in Canada. The report, "Canadian Post-secondary Education: A Positive Record--An Uncertain Future," identified eight goals and objectives derived from the strategic plans for post-secondary education (PSE) that had been developed by…

Educational Inequality in Nuevo Leon and Oaxaca, Mexico, 2008 and 2010: The Basis of an Uncertain Future for These Societies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierdant R., Alberto I.; Rodríguez Franco, Jesús; Narro R., Ana Elena

2017-01-01

Education in society especially in Mexico, seems to be a powerful instrument of intergenerational social mobility to produce individuals with "capabilities and functions" allowing them to obtain a greater well-being. "Education as schooling," in the first instance, improves the individuals living conditions, since this is a…

Seeing through the Smoke: A collaborative, multidisciplinary effort to address the interplay between wildfire, climate, air quality, and health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, S. J.; Fischer, E. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Ford, B.; Lassman, W.; Pfister, G.; Volckens, J.; Gan, R.; Magzamen, S.; Barnes, E. A.

2015-12-01

Exposure to wildfire smoke plumes represents an episodic, uncertain, and potentially growing threat to public health in the western United States. The area burned by wildfires in this region has increased over recent decades, and the future of fires within this region is largely unknown. Future fire emissions are intimately linked to future meteorological conditions, which are uncertain due to the variability of climate model outputs and differences between representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. We know that exposure to wildfire smoke is harmful, particularly for vulnerable populations. However the literature on the heath effects of wildfire smoke exposure is thin, particularly when compared to the depth of information we have on the effects of exposure to smoke of anthropogenic origin. We are exploring the relationships between climate, fires, air quality and public health through multiple interdisciplinary collaborations. We will present several examples from these projects including 1) an analysis of the influence of fire on ozone abundances over the United States, and 2) efforts to use a high-resolution weather forecasting model to nail down exposure within specific smoke plumes. We will also highlight how our team works together. This discussion will include examples of the university structure that facilitates our current collaborations, and the lessons we have learned by seeking stakeholder input to make our science more useful.

Design and Demonstration of a Material-Plasma Exposure Target Station for Neutron Irradiated Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rapp, Juergen; Aaron, A. M.; Bell, Gary L.

2015-10-20

Fusion energy is the most promising energy source for the future, and one of the most important problems to be solved progressing to a commercial fusion reactor is the identification of plasma-facing materials compatible with the extreme conditions in the fusion reactor environment. The development of plasma–material interaction (PMI) science and the technology of plasma-facing components are key elements in the development of the next step fusion device in the United States, the so-called Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF). All of these PMI issues and the uncertain impact of the 14-MeV neutron irradiation have been identified in numerous expert panelmore » reports to the fusion community. The 2007 Greenwald report classifies reactor plasma-facing materials (PFCs) and materials as the only Tier 1 issues, requiring a “. . . major extrapolation from the current state of knowledge, need for qualitative improvements and substantial development for both the short and long term.” The Greenwald report goes on to list 19 gaps in understanding and performance related to the plasma–material interface for the technology facilities needed for DEMO-oriented R&D and DEMO itself. Of the 15 major gaps, six (G7, G9, G10, G12, G13) can possibly be addressed with ORNL’s proposal of an advanced Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment. Establishing this mid-scale plasma materials test facility at ORNL is a key element in ORNL’s strategy to secure a leadership role for decades of fusion R&D. That is to say, our end goal is to bring the “signature facility” FNSF home to ORNL. This project is related to the pre-conceptual design of an innovative target station for a future Material–Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX). The target station will be designed to expose candidate fusion reactor plasma-facing materials and components (PFMs and PFCs) to conditions anticipated in fusion reactors, where PFCs will be exposed to dense high-temperature hydrogen plasmas providing steady-state heat fluxes of 5–20 MW/m 2 and ion fluxes up to 10 24 m -2s -1. Since PFCs will have to withstand neutron irradiation displacement damage up to 50 dpa, the target station design must accommodate radioactive specimens (materials to be irradiated in HFIR or at SNS) to enable investigations of the impact of neutron damage on materials. Therefore, the system will have to be able to install and extract irradiated specimens using equipment and methods to avoid sample modification, control contamination, and minimize worker dose. Included in the design considerations will be an assessment of all the steps between neutron irradiation and post-exposure materials examination/characterization, as well as an evaluation of the facility hazard categorization. In particular, the factors associated with the acquisition of radioactive specimens and their preparation, transportation, experimental configuration at the plasma-specimen interface, post-plasma-exposure sample handling, and specimen preparation will be evaluated. Neutronics calculations to determine the dose rates of the samples were carried out for a large number of potential plasma-facing materials.« less

The Research on Automatic Construction of Domain Model Based on Deep Web Query Interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JianPing, Gu

The integration of services is transparent, meaning that users no longer face the millions of Web services, do not care about the required data stored, but do not need to learn how to obtain these data. In this paper, we analyze the uncertainty of schema matching, and then propose a series of similarity measures. To reduce the cost of execution, we propose the type-based optimization method and schema matching pruning method of numeric data. Based on above analysis, we propose the uncertain schema matching method. The experiments prove the effectiveness and efficiency of our method.

A functional approach to emotion in autonomous systems.

PubMed

Sanz, Ricardo; Hernández, Carlos; Gómez, Jaime; Hernando, Adolfo

2010-01-01

The construction of fully effective systems seems to pass through the proper exploitation of goal-centric self-evaluative capabilities that let the system teleologically self-manage. Emotions seem to provide this kind of functionality to biological systems and hence the interest in emotion for function sustainment in artificial systems performing in changing and uncertain environments; far beyond the media hullabaloo of displaying human-like emotion-laden faces in robots. This chapter provides a brief analysis of the scientific theories of emotion and presents an engineering approach for developing technology for robust autonomy by implementing functionality inspired in that of biological emotions.

Decomposing Trends in Inequality in Earnings into Forecastable and Uncertain Components

PubMed Central

Cunha, Flavio; Heckman, James

2015-01-01

A substantial empirical literature documents the rise in wage inequality in the American economy. It is silent on whether the increase in inequality is due to components of earnings that are predictable by agents or whether it is due to greater uncertainty facing them. These two sources of variability have different consequences for both aggregate and individual welfare. Using data on two cohorts of American males we find that a large component of the rise in inequality for less skilled workers is due to uncertainty. For skilled workers, the rise is less pronounced. PMID:27087741

An exploration of Intolerance of Uncertainty and memory bias.

PubMed

Francis, Kylie; Dugas, Michel J; Ricard, Nathalie C

2016-09-01

Research suggests that individuals high in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) have information processing biases, which may explain the close relationship between IU and worry. Specifically, high IU individuals show an attentional bias for uncertainty, and negatively interpret uncertain information. However, evidence of a memory bias for uncertainty among high IU individuals is limited. This study therefore explored the relationship between IU and memory for uncertainty. In two separate studies, explicit and implicit memory for uncertain compared to other types of words was assessed. Cognitive avoidance and other factors that could influence information processing were also examined. IUS Factor 1 was a significant positive predictor of explicit memory for positive words, and IUS Factor 2 a significant negative predictor of implicit memory for positive words. Stimulus relevance and vocabulary were significant predictors of implicit memory for uncertain words. Cognitive avoidance was a significant predictor of both explicit and implicit memory for threat words. Female gender was a significant predictor of implicit memory for uncertain and neutral words. Word stimuli such as those used in these studies may not be the optimal way of assessing information processing biases related to IU. In addition, the predominantly female, largely student sample may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research focusing on IU factors, stimulus relevance, and both explicit and implicit memory, was recommended. The potential role of cognitive avoidance on memory, information processing, and worry was explored. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

ACCF/ACR/AIUM/ASE/ASN/ICAVL/SCAI/SCCT/SIR/SVM/SVS 2012 Appropriate Use Criteria for Peripheral Vascular Ultrasound and Physiological Testing Part I: Arterial Ultrasound and Physiological Testing

PubMed Central

Mohler, Emile R.; Gornik, Heather L.; Gerhard-Herman, Marie; Misra, Sanjay; Olin, Jeffrey W.; Zierler, R. Eugene; Wolk, Michael J.; Mohler, Emile R.; Dixon, Bradley S.; Driver, Vickie R.; Fail, Peter S.; Fazel, Reza; Findeiss, Laura; Fuchs, Richard; Gillespie, John; Hughes, Joseph P.; Jaigobin, Cheryl; Leers, Steven A.; Moore, Colleen; Pellerito, John S.; Robbin, Michelle L.; Shugart, Rita E.; Weaver, Fred A.; White, Christopher J.; Yevzlin, Alexander S.; Wolk, Michael J.; Bailey, Steven R.; Douglas, Pamela S.; Hendel, Robert C.; Kramer, Christopher M.; Min, James K.; Patel, Manesh R.; Shaw, Leslee; Stainback, Raymond F.; Allen, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), in partnership with key specialty and subspecialty societies, conducted a review of common clinical scenarios where noninvasive vascular testing (ultrasound and physiological testing) is frequently considered. The indications (clinical scenarios) were derived from common applications or anticipated uses, as well as from current clinical practice guidelines and results of studies examining the implementation of the original appropriate use criteria (AUC). The 159 indications in this document were developed by a diverse writing group and scored by a separate independent technical panel on a scale of 1 to 9, to designate appropriate use (median 7 to 9), uncertain use (median 4 to 6), and inappropriate use (median 1 to 3). A total of 255 indications (with the inclusion of surveillance timeframes) were rated. One hundred and seventeen indications were rated as appropriate, 84 were rated as uncertain, and 54 were rated as inappropriate. The AUC for peripheral vascular disease have the potential to impact physician decision making, healthcare delivery, and reimbursement policy. Furthermore, recognition of uncertain clinical scenarios facilitates identification of areas that would benefit from future research. PMID:22694840

Underwater Sensor System 2009 Field Trial Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

abrasion by the ice was shown to be useable, but the lower end was found to have been covered by gravel that must be cleared away. Significance: The...be threaded through the pipe in preparation for future operations. iv DRDC Atlantic TM 2010-241 Sommaire Underwater Sensor System 2009...is uncertain if the cause was abrasion or nibbling by sea life. ......................................................................... 9 Figure 7

12th Annual Science and Engineering Technology Conference/DoD TECH Exposition

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-23

compound when planning horizons grow: long design - test - build-field-adapt lead-times exacerbate uncertain futures problems, overload designs , and...ERS Environment ERS: Tools and Technologies to Facilitate Adaptability & Trustability 4. Tying design , physical and computational testing 6...science, engineering concepts, processes, and design tools to: • Continuously coordinate design , testing , and production with warfighter review to

The Inconsistent Past and Uncertain Future of Human Rights Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sirota, Sandra

2017-01-01

This article examines how the U.S. government's stance on human rights and human rights education has shifted from leading the creation of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights through the United Nations Human Rights Commission, with Eleanor Roosevelt as chair of the Commission, to one in which human rights education has only a minimal…

Non-industrial private forests: timber supply for an uncertain future.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

1990-01-01

According to U.S. Forest Service estimates (in press), annual timber harvest volume in the United States will have to increase from the 18 billion cubic feet of 1986 to 27 billion cubic feet by 2040 to satisfy increasing demand (Figure 1). It's doubtful that public forest lands can provide much of this additional timber, primarily because of increasing calls for...

Progressive Education in New Zealand: A Revered Past, a Contested Present and an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mutch, Carol

2013-01-01

In this article, progressive education in New Zealand is examined across three eras. The "revered past" (1870s-1960s) focuses the influence of progressive ideas on the early childhood movement from the establishment of the first kindergarten in 1889 and on the schooling sector from the 1930s to the 1960s. The "contested…

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Assessing net ecosystem carbon exchange of U.S. terrestrial ecosystems by integrating eddy covariance flux measurements and satellite observations

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiaoa; Qianlai Zhuang; Beverly E. Law; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Jiquan Chen; al. et.

2011-01-01

More accurate projections of future carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and associated climate change depend on improved scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the consensus that U.S. terrestrial ecosystems provide a carbon sink, the size, distribution, and interannual variability of this sink remain uncertain. Here we report a...

Thoughts and Speculations on the Possible Decline of Higher Education in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corso, Emanuele

The future of higher education is more uncertain now than it has ever been and it is interesting to examine and speculate as to causes and possible results. Values and sanctions that have previously motivated unquestioned acceptance of the legitimacy of higher education are, like many other values and sanctions in our society, presently undergoing…

Addressing the Uncertain Future of Preserving the Past: Towards a Robust Strategy for Digital Archiving and Preservation. Technical Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoorens, Stijn; Rothenberg, Jeff; van Orange, Constantijn; van der Mandele, Martijn; Levitt, Ruth

2007-01-01

Storing and curating authentic academic literature and making it accessible for the long term has been a time-honoured task of national libraries. By guarding existing knowledge and facilitating its use to produce new insights, national and university libraries have formed an integral part of the research environment, complementing the roles of…

Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural human systems

Treesearch

W.K. Jaeger; A.J. Plantinga; H. Chang; K. Dello; G. Grant; D. Hulse; J.J. McDonnell; S. Lancaster; H. Moradkhani; A.T. Morzillo; P. Mote; A. Nolin; M. Santlemann; J. Wu

2013-01-01

Water scarcity may appear to be a simple concept, but it can be difficult to apply to complex natural-human systems. While aggregate scarcity indices are straightforward to compute, they do not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variations in water scarcity that arise from complex systems interactions. The uncertain effects of future climate change on water...

Hypersonic Flight: Time To Go Operational

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

and turbojet /turbofan driven aircraft both individually and combined with the latter taking over fighter propulsion in 1945-1948 and quickly...2000 2020 Early Turbojet / Turbofan Piston Aircraft Late Turbojet / Turbofan Year Deployed M ile s pe r H ou 6 ensure the...threaten aircraft , airbases, and naval assets, especially aircraft carrier battle groups. The future is uncertain and the preceding vision of the

Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Barry L. Bollenbacher; Russell T. Graham; Keith M. Reynolds

2014-01-01

National law and policy direct the management of the National Forests, with restoring resilient forest conditions being an overarching theme. Climate is a major driver of disturbances that affect ecosystems, especially those with vegetation that show large departures from historical conditions. Drought, fire, insects, and diseases are common forest stressors whose...

The use of mitomycin C in pediatric airway surgery: does it work?

PubMed

Gangar, Mona; Bent, John P

2014-12-01

To describe the efficacy of mitomycin C in combating airway stenosis. Recent publications discussing mitomycin C utility have not altered the mixed results previously established by prospective trials. Mitomycin C has been used for the past 16 years to inhibit pediatric airway fibroblast proliferation. Its benefit remains more hypothetical than proven and its future role remains uncertain.

How to Assess the Real Payoff of a College Degree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Scott

2013-01-01

Just listen to Dimitrius Graham sing. As a music major at Morgan State University, he seems keenly aware of certain realities about his life: His talent is undeniable and probably innate, and his future is promising but uncertain. He could make a career singing on Broadway or climbing the charts as a Billboard phenomenon. Because he went to…

In the Name of Environmental Education: Words and Things in the Complex Territory of Education-Environment-Development Relations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomez, Jose Antonio Caride

2005-01-01

The proclamation of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development by the United Nations has placed education in general, and environmental education in particular, at the front of a future full of important and uncertain meanings. On the one hand, those inviting a conceptual, theoretical and praxiological revision of the…

Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Karoly, David J.

2008-03-01

Observations from seven Central Asian glaciers (35-55°N; 70-95°E) are used, together with regional temperature data, to infer uncertain parameters for a simple linear model of the glacier length variations. The glacier model is based on first order glacier dynamics and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. An adjoint-based variational method is used to optimally determine the glacier reference states in 1900 and the uncertain glacier model parameters. The simple glacier model is then used to estimate the glacier length variations until 2060 using regional temperature projections from an ensemble of climate model simulations for a future climate change scenario (SRES A2). For the period 2000-2060, all glaciers are projected to experience substantial further shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes (e.g., Glacier Chogo Lungma retreats ˜4 km). Although nearly one-third of the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences between the individual glacier responses are large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and the projected fractional change of its length.

Quantifying the combined effects of land use and climate changes on stream flow and nutrient loads: A modelling approach in the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark).

PubMed

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Andersen, Hans E; Nielsen, Anders; Thodsen, Hans; Trolle, Dennis

2018-04-15

Water pollution and water scarcity are among the main environmental challenges faced by the European Union, and multiple stressors compromise the integrity of water resources and ecosystems. Particularly in lowland areas of northern Europe, high population density, flood protection and, especially, intensive agriculture, are important drivers of water quality degradation. In addition, future climate and land use changes may interact, with uncertain consequences for water resources. Modelling approaches have become essential to address water issues and to evaluate ecosystem management. In this work, three multi-stressor future storylines combining climatic and socio-economic changes, defined at European level, have been downscaled for the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark), giving three scenarios: High-Tech agriculture (HT), Agriculture for Nature (AN) and Market-Driven agriculture (MD). The impacts of these scenarios on water discharge and inorganic and organic nutrient loads to the streams have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results revealed that the scenario-specific climate inputs were most important when simulating hydrology, increasing river discharge in the HT and MD scenarios (which followed the high emission 8.5 representative concentration pathway, RCP), while remaining stable in the AN scenario (RCP 4.5). Moreover, discharge was the main driver of changes in organic nutrients and inorganic phosphorus loads that consequently increased in a high emission scenario. Nevertheless, both land use (via inputs of fertilizer) and climate changes affected the nitrate transport. Different levels of fertilization yielded a decrease in the nitrate load in AN and an increase in MD. In HT, however, nitrate losses remained stable because the fertilization decrease was counteracted by a flow increase. Thus, our results suggest that N loads will ultimately depend on future land use and management in an interaction with climate changes, and this knowledge is of utmost importance for the achievement of European environmental policy goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence a portfolio of measures are required.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Produce the Same Types of 'Laugh Faces' when They Emit Laughter and when They Are Silent.

PubMed

Davila-Ross, Marina; Jesus, Goncalo; Osborne, Jade; Bard, Kim A

2015-01-01

The ability to flexibly produce facial expressions and vocalizations has a strong impact on the way humans communicate, as it promotes more explicit and versatile forms of communication. Whereas facial expressions and vocalizations are unarguably closely linked in primates, the extent to which these expressions can be produced independently in nonhuman primates is unknown. The present work, thus, examined if chimpanzees produce the same types of facial expressions with and without accompanying vocalizations, as do humans. Forty-six chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) were video-recorded during spontaneous play with conspecifics at the Chimfunshi Wildlife Orphanage. ChimpFACS was applied, a standardized coding system to measure chimpanzee facial movements, based on FACS developed for humans. Data showed that the chimpanzees produced the same 14 configurations of open-mouth faces when laugh sounds were present and when they were absent. Chimpanzees, thus, produce these facial expressions flexibly without being morphologically constrained by the accompanying vocalizations. Furthermore, the data indicated that the facial expression plus vocalization and the facial expression alone were used differently in social play, i.e., when in physical contact with the playmates and when matching the playmates' open-mouth faces. These findings provide empirical evidence that chimpanzees produce distinctive facial expressions independently from a vocalization, and that their multimodal use affects communicative meaning, important traits for a more explicit and versatile way of communication. As it is still uncertain how human laugh faces evolved, the ChimpFACS data were also used to empirically examine the evolutionary relation between open-mouth faces with laugh sounds of chimpanzees and laugh faces of humans. The ChimpFACS results revealed that laugh faces of humans must have gradually emerged from laughing open-mouth faces of ancestral apes. This work examines the main evolutionary changes of laugh faces since the last common ancestor of chimpanzees and humans.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

PubMed

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Learning from the Past: Supporting Teaching through the "Facing the Past" History Project in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tibbitts, Felisa

2006-01-01

This article presents an innovative professional development project, "Facing the Past-Transforming Our Future," developed collaboratively by the Western Cape Educational Department, the Cape Town Holocaust Centre (CTHC), and the US-based teacher professional development organization Facing History and Ourselves (FHAO). "Facing the…

Anticipated Ongoing Interaction versus Channel Effects of Relational Communication in Computer-Mediated Interaction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walther, Joseph B.

1994-01-01

Assesses the related effects of anticipated future interaction and different communication media (computer-mediated versus face-to-face communication) on the communication of relational intimacy and composure. Shows that the assignment of long-term versus short-term partnerships has a larger impact on anticipated future interaction reported by…

Faces of the Future: A Portrait of First-Generation Community College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nomi, Takako

2005-01-01

The Faces of the Future Survey is the first national survey developed to examine the lives and experiences of credit and noncredit community college students. This report summarizes survey findings on the demographic characteristics, goals, and college experiences of the nation's first-generation community college students who are enrolled in…

A Method for Scheduling Air Traffic with Uncertain En Route Capacity Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneson, Heather; Bloem, Michael

2009-01-01

A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.

The Traveler with Sickle Cell Disease

PubMed Central

Willen, Shaina M.; Thornburg, Courtney D.; Lantos, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Background Sickle cell disease (SCD) is the most common genetic disease among persons with African ancestry. This article provides a background on SCD and reviews many important aspects of travel preparation in this population. Methods The medical literature was searched for studies about travel-associated preparedness and complications in individuals with SCD. Topics researched included malaria, bacterial infections, vaccinations, dehydration, altitude, air travel, and travel preparedness. Results There is very little published literature that specifically addresses the risks faced by travelers with SCD. Rates of medical complications during travel appear to be high. There is a body of literature that describes complications of SCD in indigenous populations, particularly within Africa. The generalizability of these data to a traveler are uncertain. Combining these sources of data and the broader medical literature we address major travel-related questions that may face a provider preparing an individual with SCD for safe travel. Conclusions Travelers with SCD face considerable medical risks when traveling to developing tropical countries; these include malaria, bacterial infections, hypovolemia, and sickle cell-associated vaso-occlusive crises. Frank counseling about risks, vigilant preventative measures, and contingency planning for illness while abroad are necessary parts of the pre-travel visit for individuals with SCD. PMID:24947546

Tree ring evidence for limited direct CO2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gedalof, Ze'ev; Berg, Aaron A.

2010-09-01

The effect that rising atmospheric CO2 levels will have on forest productivity and water use efficiency remains uncertain, yet it has critical implications for future rates of carbon sequestration and forest distributions. Efforts to understand the effect that rising CO2 will have on forests are largely based on growth chamber studies of seedlings, and the relatively small number of FACE sites. Inferences from these studies are limited by their generally short durations, artificial growing conditions, unnatural step-increases in CO2 concentrations, and poor replication. Here we analyze the global record of annual radial tree growth, derived from the International Tree ring Data Bank (ITRDB), for evidence of increasing growth rates that cannot be explained by climatic change alone, and for evidence of decreasing sensitivity to drought. We find that approximately 20 percent of sites globally exhibit increasing trends in growth that cannot be attributed to climatic causes, nitrogen deposition, elevation, or latitude, which we attribute to a direct CO2 fertilization effect. No differences were found between species in their likelihood to exhibit growth increases attributable to CO2 fertilization, although Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), the two most commonly sampled species in the ITRDB, exhibit a CO2 fertilization signal at frequencies very near their upper and lower confidence limits respectively. Overall these results suggest that CO2 fertilization of forests will not counteract emissions or slow warming in any substantial fashion, but do suggest that future forest dynamics may differ from those seen today depending on site conditions and individual species' responses to elevated CO2.

Hydrologic and geochemical characterization of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, Sonoma County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

2013-01-01

The Santa Rosa Plain is home to approximately half of the population of Sonoma County, California, and faces growth in population and demand for water. Water managers are confronted with the challenge of meeting the increasing water demand with a combination of water sources, including local groundwater, whose future availability could be uncertain. To meet this challenge, water managers are seeking to acquire the knowledge and tools needed to understand the likely effects of future groundwater development in the Santa Rosa Plain and to identify efficient strategies for surface- and groundwater management that will ensure the long-term viability of the water supply. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency and other stakeholders in the area (cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, town of Windsor, Cal-American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma), undertook this study to characterize the hydrology of the Santa Rosa Plain and to develop tools to better understand and manage the groundwater system. The objectives of the study are: (1) to develop an updated assessment of the hydrogeology and geochemistry of the Santa Rosa Plain; (2) to develop a fully coupled surface-water and groundwater-flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed; and (3) to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of alternative groundwater-management strategies for the basin. The purpose of this report is to describe the surface-water and groundwater hydrology, hydrogeology, and water-quality characteristics of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed and to develop a conceptual model of the hydrologic system in support of the first objective. The results from completing the second and third objectives will be described in a separate report.

Applying Technology Ranking and Systems Engineering in Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

According to the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program Plan, the Systems Modeling and Analysis Project (SMAP) has two important tasks: 1) prioritizing investments in ALS Research and Technology Development (R&TD), and 2) guiding the evolution of ALS systems. Investments could be prioritized simply by independently ranking different technologies, but we should also consider a technology's impact on system design. Guiding future ALS systems will require SMAP to consider many aspects of systems engineering. R&TD investments can be prioritized using familiar methods for ranking technology. The first step is gathering data on technology performance, safety, readiness level, and cost. Then the technologies are ranked using metrics or by decision analysis using net present economic value. The R&TD portfolio can be optimized to provide the maximum expected payoff in the face of uncertain future events. But more is needed. The optimum ALS system can not be designed simply by selecting the best technology for each predefined subsystem. Incorporating a new technology, such as food plants, can change the specifications of other subsystems, such as air regeneration. Systems must be designed top-down starting from system objectives, not bottom-up from selected technologies. The familiar top-down systems engineering process includes defining mission objectives, mission design, system specification, technology analysis, preliminary design, and detail design. Technology selection is only one part of systems analysis and engineering, and it is strongly related to the subsystem definitions. ALS systems should be designed using top-down systems engineering. R&TD technology selection should consider how the technology affects ALS system design. Technology ranking is useful but it is only a small part of systems engineering.

Decisional conflict and the disposition of frozen embryos: implications for informed consent

PubMed Central

Lyerly, A.D.; Nakagawa, S.; Kuppermann, M.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND Fertility patients often struggle with decisions about disposition of embryos remaining after fertility treatment. We aimed to identify predictors and correlates of decisional conflict among patients facing these decisions. METHODS We analyzed results from a survey of 2210 patients from nine geographically diverse US fertility clinics. The main outcome measure was decisional conflict about embryo disposition, as measured by the decisional conflict scale (DCS). RESULTS Of 1244 respondents who returned the survey, 1005 with cryopreserved embryos and DCS scores were included in the analysis. Of the respondents, 39% reported high decisional conflict (DCS ≥ 37.5). Thoughts about future childbearing were associated with high decisional conflict: respondents who were either uncertain about whether to have a baby in the future or sure they did not want to have a baby were at higher odds of high decisional conflict than participants who desired a baby [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.93, P < 0.001 and aOR = 1.69, P = 0.04, respectively]. Also associated with high decisional conflict were being likely to have embryos thawed and discarded (aOR = 2.08, P < 0.001), donated for research (aOR = 1.66, P = 0.01) or frozen ‘forever’ (aOR = 1.90, P = 0.01); being likely to choose compassionate transfer if it were available (aOR = 1.65, P = 0.03); attributing high, but not full, moral status to human embryos; not having enough information; and not being satisfied with the informed consent process. CONCLUSIONS Decisional conflict about frozen embryo disposition differs according to reproductive preferences that may vary according to stage of treatment. Informed consent for embryo disposition should be revisited periodically, with serious discussions about disposition after childbearing is complete. PMID:21216789

Future Schools: Blending Face-to-Face and Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schorr, Jonathan; McGriff, Deborah

2012-01-01

"Hybrid schools" are schools that combine "face-to-face" education in a specific place with online instruction. In this article, the authors describe school models which offer a vision for what deeply integrated technology can mean for children's education, for the way schools are structured, and for the promise of greater…

Current Challenges Facing the Future of Secondary Education and Transition Services for Youth with Disabilities in the United States. Discussion Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Secondary Education and Transition (NCSET), University of Minnesota, 2004

2004-01-01

This paper is intended to promote discussion among professionals, policymakers, employers, parents, and individuals with disabilities concerning current and future challenges facing secondary education and transition services nationally. The issues identified and discussed should not, however, be viewed as inclusive of the full range of possible…

Interdisciplinary Vertical Integration: The Future of Biomechanics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gregor, Robert J.

2008-01-01

The field of biomechanics has grown rapidly in the past 30 years in both size and complexity. As a result, the term might mean different things to different people. This article addresses the issues facing the field in the form of challenges biomechanists face in the future. Because the field is so diverse, strength within the different areas of…

Trusted Defense Microelectronics: Future Access and Capabilities Are Uncertain

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-28

Board Task Force on High Performance Microchip Supply and documentation and discussions with industry and DOD officials in September and October...the defense and microelectronics industry . DOD’s review of this report deemed some of this information as sensitive but unclassified. What GAO...increased specialization and industry consolidation. • Once dominated by domestic sources, the supply chain for microelectronics manufacturing is a global one

Guided by Principles. Shaping the State of California's Role in K-12 Public School Facility Funding. Full Policy Research Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vincent, Jeffrey M.; Gross, Liz S.

2015-01-01

K-12 public school facilities need regular investment to ensure student health and safety and support educational programming. Yet, the future of K-12 school facility funding in California is uncertain. A strong state-local partnership has existed that funded new construction, modernization, and other investments in public school facilities across…

Government Support for Synthetic Pipeline Gas Uncertain and Needs Attention.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-14

coal gas. Tear Sheetii RECOMMENDATIONS GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy - --establish a plan to guide future support of high-Btu coal...recognizes that there are basic dif- ferences expected from large and small scale research projects, GAO believes that the report recognizes these...transportation, including the pipeline system. In its price-setting, or ratemaking function, it represents the interests of gas customers, sometimes

Addressing the Uncertain Future of Preserving the Past: Towards a Robust Strategy for Digital Archiving and Preservation. Technical Report. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoorens, Stijn; Rothenberg, Jeff; van Oranje-Nassau, Constantijn; van der Mandele, Martin; Levitt, Ruth

2007-01-01

Storing and curating authentic academic literature and making it accessible for the long term has been a time-honoured task of national libraries. By guarding existing knowledge and facilitating its use to produce new insights, national and university libraries have formed an integral part of the research environment, complementing the roles of…

Accomplishments of Long-Term Research and Development

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Jordy, George Y.

1988-07-01

Technological breakthroughs cannot be penciled on the calendar in advance. The rate of new technological discovery, while highly uncertain, depends on a base of knowledge acquired earlier. In the economic environment of 1980, progress in basic research, which builds the technology base that will underpin future energy development by Government and industry, was being slowed as cost increases due to inflation grew faster than funding increase.

A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.

2014-01-01

This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

Acquisition Research for Design and Service Enterprises

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-02

better than refurbishment.  Replacement: Replacing a component means to swap in a new component. Consequently, the efficiency after replacement is...objectives are fueled by anticipation of future gains; and transaction encapsulates the reluctance to change currencies /investments because of the fixed...those for holding currency . It can be argued that the exception is when goods are held in reserve to meet uncertain demands, with the objective of

Connected, Disconnected, or Uncertain: Student Attitudes about Future Writing Contexts and Perceptions of Transfer from First Year Writing to the Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Driscoll, Dana Lynn

2011-01-01

Transfer, or how much knowledge from one context is used or adapted in new contexts, is a longstanding issue for researchers and teachers of writing in a variety of disciplines. Transfer is of particular concern when examining how effective first-year writing is in preparing students with a foundation for their disciplinary coursework. This…

Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan D.; Zeff, Harrison B.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2014-10-01

While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, "optimal" solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Produce the Same Types of ‘Laugh Faces’ when They Emit Laughter and when They Are Silent

PubMed Central

Davila-Ross, Marina; Jesus, Goncalo; Osborne, Jade; Bard, Kim A.

2015-01-01

The ability to flexibly produce facial expressions and vocalizations has a strong impact on the way humans communicate, as it promotes more explicit and versatile forms of communication. Whereas facial expressions and vocalizations are unarguably closely linked in primates, the extent to which these expressions can be produced independently in nonhuman primates is unknown. The present work, thus, examined if chimpanzees produce the same types of facial expressions with and without accompanying vocalizations, as do humans. Forty-six chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) were video-recorded during spontaneous play with conspecifics at the Chimfunshi Wildlife Orphanage. ChimpFACS was applied, a standardized coding system to measure chimpanzee facial movements, based on FACS developed for humans. Data showed that the chimpanzees produced the same 14 configurations of open-mouth faces when laugh sounds were present and when they were absent. Chimpanzees, thus, produce these facial expressions flexibly without being morphologically constrained by the accompanying vocalizations. Furthermore, the data indicated that the facial expression plus vocalization and the facial expression alone were used differently in social play, i.e., when in physical contact with the playmates and when matching the playmates’ open-mouth faces. These findings provide empirical evidence that chimpanzees produce distinctive facial expressions independently from a vocalization, and that their multimodal use affects communicative meaning, important traits for a more explicit and versatile way of communication. As it is still uncertain how human laugh faces evolved, the ChimpFACS data were also used to empirically examine the evolutionary relation between open-mouth faces with laugh sounds of chimpanzees and laugh faces of humans. The ChimpFACS results revealed that laugh faces of humans must have gradually emerged from laughing open-mouth faces of ancestral apes. This work examines the main evolutionary changes of laugh faces since the last common ancestor of chimpanzees and humans. PMID:26061420

What If? Paths Not Taken

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logsdon, John M.

2005-01-01

I think the point of this exercise in counterfactual thinking is two-fold first, to recognize that not only have choices been made in the past that defined the character of what has happened and that different choices were possible and would have led to different outcomes, and, second, that we are currently making similar choices for the future. Today s choices obviously will have significant long-term consequences for space development. Decision-makers have an image of a desirable future when they make choices, but they also realize that the link between current choice and desired result is always uncertain. As the philosopher Yogi Berra is often quoted as having said, "making predictions is hard, especially when they are about the future."

Children's Gender Identity in Lesbian and Heterosexual Two-Parent Families.

PubMed

Bos, Henny; Sandfort, Theo G M

2010-01-01

This study compared gender identity, anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement, and psychosocial adjustment of children in lesbian and heterosexual families; it was furthermore assessed whether associations between these aspects differed between family types. Data were obtained in the Netherlands from children in 63 lesbian families and 68 heterosexual families. All children were between 8 and 12 years old. Children in lesbian families felt less parental pressure to conform to gender stereotypes, were less likely to experience their own gender as superior and were more likely to be uncertain about future heterosexual romantic involvement. No differences were found on psychosocial adjustment. Gender typicality, gender contentedness and anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement were significant predictors of psychosocial adjustment in both family types.

Barriers to the development of forest carbon offsetting: Insights from British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Hagerman, Shannon; Hoberg, George

2017-12-01

In recent years, the provision of economic incentives through carbon financing and carbon offsetting has been central to efforts at forest carbon mitigation. However, notwithstanding their potentially important roles in climate policy, forest carbon offsets face numerous barriers which have limited widespread implementation worldwide. This paper uses the case study of the Canadian province of British Columbia to explore the barriers associated with achieving widespread implementation of forest carbon offsets in the next several decades. Drawing on interviews with experts from government, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and First Nations, six main barriers are identified and discussed: (1) deficiencies of carbon markets, (2) limited economic benefits, (3) uncertain climate effectiveness, (4) negative public opinion, (5) limited and uncertain property rights, and (6) governance issues. While respondents from different sectors agreed on various points, divergence was also observed, notably on the trade-off between generating environmentally sound offsets and promoting cost-effective ways to achieve mitigation. We discuss these differences in the context of the goals and objectives of different actors, and offer insights for understanding the uptake (or not) of carbon offset policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scheduling in the Face of Uncertain Resource Consumption and Utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor); Frank, Jeremy; Dearden, Richard

2003-01-01

We discuss the problem of scheduling tasks that consume a resource with known capacity and where the tasks have varying utility. We consider problems in which the resource consumption and utility of each activity is described by probability distributions. In these circumstances, we would like to find schedules that exceed a lower bound on the expected utility when executed. We first show that while some of these problems are NP-complete, others are only NP-Hard. We then describe various heuristic search algorithms to solve these problems and their drawbacks. Finally, we present empirical results that characterize the behavior of these heuristics over a variety of problem classes.

Mergers and acquisitions: director and consultant liability exposure.

PubMed

Waxman, J M

1995-02-01

Corporate directors and their consultants must make decisions in an uncertain and changing health care environment. The losses each may face as a result of an incomplete analysis of the true value of the entities involved in mergers or acquisitions may extend beyond the failure of the transaction to the creation of personal liability as well. Accordingly, objective, careful, detailed, and fair decision-making based upon adequate information is more critical than ever for directors if they are to be able to take advantage of the business judgment rule, and also for consultants to avoid their own liability when transactions fail to deliver the values they have estimated.

Behind the mask. Journey through an epidemic: some observations of contrasting public health responses to SARS

PubMed Central

Syed, Q; Sopwith, W; Regan, M; Bellis, M

2003-01-01

SARS has been called the first global epidemic of the 21st century and has been the cause of a massive and varied public health response in many countries of the world. This report describes observations made by two authors on a journey from Manchester in the United Kingdom to Chiang Mai in Thailand during the peak of global transmission. The public response to SARS, particularly characterised by the wearing of face masks, seemed to outstrip official guidance. Though of uncertain protective benefit, the wearing of masks may have contributed to the awareness of the collective and personal responsibility in combating infectious disease. Active and empowered involvement of the general public in implementing and cooperating with public health control measures supported by national and international authorities has clearly helped to bring SARS under control. The public health significance of such potent symbols as the face mask may be considered in strategies to tackle other emerging infections. PMID:14600109

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-01-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

The precautionary principle and pharmaceutical risk management.

PubMed

Callréus, Torbjörn

2005-01-01

Although it is often vigorously contested and has several different formulations, the precautionary principle has in recent decades guided environmental policy making in the face of scientific uncertainty. Originating from a criticism of traditional risk assessment, the key element of the precautionary principle is the justification for acting in the face of uncertain knowledge about risks. In the light of its growing invocation in various areas that are related to public health and recently in relation to drug safety issues, this article presents an introductory review of the main elements of the precautionary principle and some arguments conveyed by its advocates and opponents. A comparison of the characteristics of pharmaceutical risk management and environmental policy making (i.e. the setting within which the precautionary principle evolved), indicates that several important differences exist. If believed to be of relevance, in order to avoid arbitrary and unpredictable decision making, both the interpretation and possible application of the precautionary principle need to be adapted to the conditions of pharmaceutical risk management.

Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Baker, Jeffrey; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fugice, Job; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Lafarge, Tanguy; Marcaida Iii, Manuel; Masutomi, Yuji; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Yulong; Wilson, Lloyd Ted; Yang, Lianxin; Yang, Yubin; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Zhu, Jianguo

2017-11-01

The CO 2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO 2 ] (E-[CO 2 ]) by comparison to free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO 2 ] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO 2 ] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO 2 ] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO 2 ] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO 2 ] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.

Residents' responsibilities: Adopting a wider view.

PubMed

Schattner, Ami

2017-12-01

Current ACGME regulations have limited residents' weekly hours and continuous working hours, a marked change, despite its uncertain effects on physician well-being and quality of care. Although residency programs in internal medicine and family medicine have adapted schedules to conform to these regulations, increasing evidence is accumulating to suggest that these training experiences are not adequately preparing the next generation of practicing primary care and hospital-based physicians. Data from an array of sources continue to demonstrate significant deficiencies in six areas of residents' responsibilities towards their patients: diminished patient "face time" and direct patient care; focus on patients' "reason for hospitalization" or "reason for visit" at the expense of possible neglect of patients' "secondary" medical problems; limited attention to patients' emotional or contextual problems and limited empathy; deficient implementation of the essential constituents of patient-centered care; neglect of habitual "reflective practice"; and excessive distinction between inpatient and outpatient responsibilities, leading to missed opportunities for inpatient residents to be aware of and attend to patients' post-discharge course although new information and readmissions related to the index hospitalization are prevalent. Thus, redesigning residency programs to widen residents' outlook and cover these inseparable components of high-quality care, may infuse the often fatigued and burnt-out residents with purpose and fulfillment, finally incorporating the missing elements of patient-centered care as integral parts of patients' admissions and therefore, of physicians' future careers.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

PubMed

McGuire, Joseph T; Kable, Joseph W

2013-04-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.

Error Sources in Proccessing LIDAR Based Bridge Inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, H.; Chen, S. E.; Liu, W.

2017-09-01

Bridge inspection is a critical task in infrastructure management and is facing unprecedented challenges after a series of bridge failures. The prevailing visual inspection was insufficient in providing reliable and quantitative bridge information although a systematic quality management framework was built to ensure visual bridge inspection data quality to minimize errors during the inspection process. The LiDAR based remote sensing is recommended as an effective tool in overcoming some of the disadvantages of visual inspection. In order to evaluate the potential of applying this technology in bridge inspection, some of the error sources in LiDAR based bridge inspection are analysed. The scanning angle variance in field data collection and the different algorithm design in scanning data processing are the found factors that will introduce errors into inspection results. Besides studying the errors sources, advanced considerations should be placed on improving the inspection data quality, and statistical analysis might be employed to evaluate inspection operation process that contains a series of uncertain factors in the future. Overall, the development of a reliable bridge inspection system requires not only the improvement of data processing algorithms, but also systematic considerations to mitigate possible errors in the entire inspection workflow. If LiDAR or some other technology can be accepted as a supplement for visual inspection, the current quality management framework will be modified or redesigned, and this would be as urgent as the refine of inspection techniques.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

2013-01-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

Only the Carrot, Not the Stick: Incorporating Trust into the Enforcement of Regulation

PubMed Central

Mendoza, Juan P.; Wielhouwer, Jacco L.

2015-01-01

New enforcement strategies allow agents to gain the regulator’s trust and consequently face a lower audit probability. Prior research suggests that, in order to prevent lower compliance, a reduction in the audit probability (the “carrot”) must be compensated with the introduction of a higher penalty for non-compliance (the “stick”). However, such carrot-and-stick strategies reflect neither the concept of trust nor the strategies observed in practice. In response to this, we define trust-based regulation as a strategy that incorporates rules that allow trust to develop, and using a generic (non-cooperative) game of tax compliance, we examine whether trust-based regulation is feasible (i.e., whether, in equilibrium, a reduction in the audit probability, without ever increasing the penalty for non-compliance, does not lead to reduced compliance). The model shows that trust-based regulation is feasible when the agent sufficiently values the future. In line with the concept of trust, this strategy is feasible when the regulator is uncertain about the agent’s intentions. Moreover, the model shows that (i) introducing higher penalties makes trust-based regulation less feasible, and (ii) combining trust and forgiveness can lead to a lower audit probability for both trusted and distrusted agents. Policy recommendations often point toward increasing deterrence. This model shows that the opposite can be optimal. PMID:25705898

Correlation of near-infrared spectroscopy and transcranial magnetic stimulation of the motor cortex in overt reading and musical tasks.

PubMed

Lo, Y L; Zhang, H H; Wang, C C; Chin, Z Y; Fook-Chong, S; Gabriel, C; Guan, C T

2009-01-01

In overt reading and singing tasks, actual vocalization of words in a rhythmic fashion is performed. During execution of these tasks, the role of underlying vascular processes in relation to cortical excitability changes in a spatial manner is uncertain. Our objective was to investigate cortical excitability changes during reading and singing with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), as well as vascular changes with nearinfrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Findings with TMS and NIRS were correlated. TMS and NIRS recordings were performed in 5 normal subjects while they performed reading and singing tasks separately. TMS was applied over the left motor cortex at 9 positions 2.5 cm apart. NIRS recordings were made over these identical positions. Although both TMS and NIRS showed significant mean cortical excitability and hemodynamic changes from baseline during vocalization tasks, there was no significant spatial correlation of these changes evaluated with the 2 techniques over the left motor cortex. Our findings suggest that increased left-sided cortical excitability from overt vocalization tasks in the corresponding "hand area" were the result of "functional connectivity," rather than an underlying "vascular overflow mechanism" from the adjacent speech processing or face/mouth areas. Our findings also imply that functional neurophysiological and vascular methods may evaluate separate underlying processes, although subjects performed identical vocalization tasks. Future research combining similar methodologies should embrace this aspect and harness their separate capabilities.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Future Critical Issues and Problems Facing Technology and Engineering Education in the Commonwealth of Virginia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsioloudis, Petros; Moye, Johnny J.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to determine the future critical issues and problems facing the K-12 technology and engineering education profession in the Commonwealth of Virginia. This study was based on the Wicklein nationwide studies (1993a, 2005). Even though this study did not exactly replicate the Wicklein studies--since it was limited to…

Heading for Hardship: Retirement Income for American Women in the Next Century. Mother's Day Report 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Older Women's League, Washington, DC.

Millions of women face bleak retirement futures. In 40 years, when today's 25-year-olds retire, fewer women will be retiring married, and therefore fewer will have access to a husband's retirement income. Young women continue to face a future of significantly lower wages. Caregiving responsibilities continue to fall predominantly on women's…

Midwifery: "at the edge of history".

PubMed

Dahlen, H

2006-03-01

The paper focuses on possible future pathways in maternity care for midwives and nations to consider. The paper blends personal and professional experiences to outline priority areas facing midwives in the future. It begins by examining maternal mortality and morbidity in the developing world and considering the potential of the ten high priority action messages (1997) in helping to improve the plight of women and children in the future. The paper then examines major issues facing midwives in the developed world including: the way birth is viewed; the medical-midwifery divide; marketing midwifery; and finally the challenge of dealing with fear around birth. The third part of the paper examines a part of society where the two worlds meet and there are issues from both the developed and developing world to consider. The paper focuses on women from culturally and linguistically diverse communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and women birthing in remote and rural areas. By looking at these three worlds separately the paper examines different concerns facing midwives in the future but also draws on common issues that face us all as citizens of this planet and particularly as predominantly women. The paper challenges midwives to be politically active and dare to change the world.

Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

PubMed

Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

2017-08-01

Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of parents of children/youth with DSD regarding future fertility. Previous studies have suggested that the possibility of biological parenthood is important to many individuals with DSD. This study provided an in-depth parental perspective. This is important because many decisions that affect future fertility are made in childhood, and require parents to make decisions on behalf of their children. The study sample was limited in its geographic diversity. Strengths of the study included diversity in age of the child/youth, ethnic backgrounds, and the DSD diagnoses that were represented. Future fertility was a concern for many parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents expressed multiple priorities and preferences related to making difficult fertility-related medical decisions for their children. Many of the study findings could be incorporated into future best practices for discussions about fertility with families of children/youth with DSD. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.

2012-07-01

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent Systemmore » Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.« less

Brief research report: uncertainty-inducing and reassuring facts about HPV: a descriptive study of French Canadian women.

PubMed

Rosen, Natalie O; Knäuper, Bärbel; Pagé, Gabrielle; Di Dio, Pasqualina; Morrison, Eleshia; Mayrand, Marie-Hélène; Franco, Eduardo L; Rosberger, Zeev

2009-10-01

We sought to describe information that makes women feel (1) uncertain and (2) reassured about their human papillomavirus (HPV) status and the potential health implications of an HPV DNA test result and (3) to examine information seeking after receiving their result. Thirty women (previously tested HPV negative) read factual information on HPV and cervical cancer and were asked which facts were uncertainty inducing and which were reassuring. Twenty-four facts reassured women of their HPV negative status, 11 facts made women feel uncertain, and 10 facts made them feel both. The most common reason for seeking information in the future was receiving a positive test result. The authors outline what specific facts about HPV health providers can emphasize to alleviate anxiety and encourage women to feel reassured of their low cancer risk following a negative test result.

Always Gamble on an Empty Stomach: Hunger Is Associated with Advantageous Decision Making

PubMed Central

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making. PMID:25340399

Always gamble on an empty stomach: hunger is associated with advantageous decision making.

PubMed

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making.

Multiple Stressors and the Functioning of Coral Reefs.

PubMed

Harborne, Alastair R; Rogers, Alice; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J

2017-01-03

Coral reefs provide critical services to coastal communities, and these services rely on ecosystem functions threatened by stressors. By summarizing the threats to the functioning of reefs from fishing, climate change, and decreasing water quality, we highlight that these stressors have multiple, conflicting effects on functionally similar groups of species and their interactions, and that the overall effects are often uncertain because of a lack of data or variability among taxa. The direct effects of stressors on links among functional groups, such as predator-prey interactions, are particularly uncertain. Using qualitative modeling, we demonstrate that this uncertainty of stressor impacts on functional groups (whether they are positive, negative, or neutral) can have significant effects on models of ecosystem stability, and reducing uncertainty is vital for understanding changes to reef functioning. This review also provides guidance for future models of reef functioning, which should include interactions among functional groups and the cumulative effect of stressors.

Parenchymal and airway diseases caused by asbestos.

PubMed

Antonescu-Turcu, Andreea L; Schapira, Ralph M

2010-03-01

The extensive industrial use of asbestos for many decades has been linked to development of benign and malignant pleuropulmonary disease. This review summarizes newer evidence and ongoing controversies that exist in the literature regarding asbestos-related parenchymal and airway diseases. Asbestosis represents a significant respiratory problem despite the improvement in the workplace hygiene and a decrease in use of asbestos. The management of asbestosis remains challenging as currently there is no specific treatment. The role of asbestos exposure alone as a cause of chronic airway obstruction remains uncertain. The relationship between lung cancer and asbestos exposure alone and in combination with smoking has also been investigated. The benefit of screening for asbestos-related pleuropulmonary disease remains uncertain as does the use of computed tomography scanning for the purpose of screening. Future studies will help clarify the clinical issues and shape screening strategies for asbestos-exposed individuals.

Multiple Stressors and the Functioning of Coral Reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harborne, Alastair R.; Rogers, Alice; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

2017-01-01

Coral reefs provide critical services to coastal communities, and these services rely on ecosystem functions threatened by stressors. By summarizing the threats to the functioning of reefs from fishing, climate change, and decreasing water quality, we highlight that these stressors have multiple, conflicting effects on functionally similar groups of species and their interactions, and that the overall effects are often uncertain because of a lack of data or variability among taxa. The direct effects of stressors on links among functional groups, such as predator-prey interactions, are particularly uncertain. Using qualitative modeling, we demonstrate that this uncertainty of stressor impacts on functional groups (whether they are positive, negative, or neutral) can have significant effects on models of ecosystem stability, and reducing uncertainty is vital for understanding changes to reef functioning. This review also provides guidance for future models of reef functioning, which should include interactions among functional groups and the cumulative effect of stressors.

Deep-time moles: art and archiving for an uncertain radiological future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Dave; Illingworth, Samuel; Girling, Matt

2017-04-01

This paper will present Deep Field [UnclearZine], a 2016 art-science project conducted at Mol and Dessel, two neighbouring rural villages co-existing with sites for planned geological nuclear-waste disposal in eastern Belgium. Dave Griffiths produced a microfiche publication that probes and narrates the scientific testing and politics of decision-making surrounding controversial ONDRAF-NIRAS (Belgian National Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials) projects - at CatA, a tumulus for encasing low-level waste, and HADES, a lab investigating the feasibility and safety-case for deep-time geo-burial of high-level waste in clay strata. Griffiths' field work used qualitative and experiential methods such as ethnographic interviews with state scientists and independent monitoring groups, photographic derive, and sound recording, to sense a wider Anthropogenic narrative of energy production, mineral extraction and terrorist threat. Data were then remixed through narrative responses by scientist-poet Dr Sam Illingworth (Manchester Metropolitan University) and DIY-comix artist Matt Girling. Through experimenting with archaic analogue film technology, Griffiths collaged and miniaturised content to produce an edition of microfiches that have been distributed to zine libraries internationally. This subcultural format attempts to translate the past, present and future history of the repositories as folkloric sites of conflict, complexity and unknowing, for the benefit of a far-future readership. The paper will discuss the contemporary context of epistemological uncertainty around the survival and reception of crucial nuclear-security information in the face of inevitable material, linguistic and political ruination. We suggest that place-markers, as monumental semiotic warnings to the future, along with digital archives, might also be augmented by decentralised analogue fragments that promote ongoing memorialisation of nuclear-heritage sites through intergenerational storytelling and re-archiving. The gesture of microfiche proposes an indeterminate, spectral archive for future citizens, that could be re-translated and reproduced many times through deep-time subject to a decision: to remember, or to delete? Deep Field [UnclearZine] was produced for the exhibition Perpetual Uncertainty: Contemporary Art in the Nuclear Anthropocene, Bildmuseet, Umeå, Sweden (2 October 2016 - 16 April 2017). Curated by Ele Carpenter (Nuclear Cultures Research Group, Goldsmith University UK) and commissioned by Arts Catalyst (London) with support from Z33 House for Contemporary Art (Hasselt, Belgium) and Manchester School of Art (UK).

Psychoanalysis and the community mental health movement.

PubMed

Croghan, L M

1975-01-01

Psychoanalysis and CMHM were once enemies. Psychoanalysis has made noteworthy advances toward the CMHM idea both in technique changes and in community involvement. It is possible that CMHM may finally reject all psychoanalytic contribution and face its future without a theory. If that takes place, the CMHM some day in its future may turn a corner and find itself face to face with the lonely, individual man, conscious of his past and fearful of the unexplained anxiety within him. It is then that the CMHM will find itself once again studying the works of Herbert Marcuse, Erik Erikson, Sigmund Freud, and the psychoanalytic world.

On the particular vulnerability of face recognition to aging: a review of three hypotheses

PubMed Central

Boutet, Isabelle; Taler, Vanessa; Collin, Charles A.

2015-01-01

Age-related face recognition deficits are characterized by high false alarms to unfamiliar faces, are not as pronounced for other complex stimuli, and are only partially related to general age-related impairments in cognition. This paper reviews some of the underlying processes likely to be implicated in theses deficits by focusing on areas where contradictions abound as a means to highlight avenues for future research. Research pertaining to the three following hypotheses is presented: (i) perceptual deterioration, (ii) encoding of configural information, and (iii) difficulties in recollecting contextual information. The evidence surveyed provides support for the idea that all three factors are likely to contribute, under certain conditions, to the deficits in face recognition seen in older adults. We discuss how these different factors might interact in the context of a generic framework of the different stages implicated in face recognition. Several suggestions for future investigations are outlined. PMID:26347670

Technology Proliferation: Acquisition Strategies and Opportunities for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-20

The large programs of record characteristic of federal acquisition consist of rigorous research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E...and evaluation (IOT&E) activities drive the program toward the decision to enter full rate production (FRP). Finally, in the sustainment phase, the...the new feature by a full release at a later date, or halt the development altogether. As stated by the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation

When Antimicrobial Stewardship Isn′t Watching: The Educational Impact of Critical Care Prospective Audit and Feedback

PubMed Central

Fleming, Dimitra; Ali, Karim F.; Matelski, John; D'Sa, Ryan; Powis, Jeff

2016-01-01

Prospective audit and feedback (PAF) is an effective strategy to optimize antimicrobial use in the critical care setting, yet whether skills gained during PAF influence future antimicrobial prescribing is uncertain. This multisite study demonstrates that knowledge learned during PAF is translated and incorporated into the practice of critical care physicians even when not supported by an antimicrobial stewardship program. PMID:27382599

With Help & Hope ... Dreams Do Come True: A Look at Easter Seals Therapeutic Day School of Chicago

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leone, Kristen B.

2007-01-01

Maurice Snell, 23, has beaten the odds. A young man living with autism, he has a college degree and a job. For many with autism, such achievements may be beyond reach. Maurice has a milder form of this complex neurological disorder, but his future was uncertain for most of his childhood. For years Maurice was nonverbal, and no one had an answer…

Electronics Manufacturing Seminar Proceedings. 17th Annual

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

a CFC Solvent Cleaning Alternative Page 3 In operation dirty parts are immersed in the boil cham- ber where they contact the agitated mixture of...component. Some glycol ethers have an uncertain regulatory future due to a variety of health concerns. Semi-aqueous solvents can have a strong odor . Proper...thermoset 5 materials, elastomers, marking inks, sealants, and locking compounds after repeated exposure to the selected cleaners. Epoxy and polyimide PWBs

Critical Code: Software Producibility for Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the hazard of a single system failing can often be associated with a much larger aggregate of systems, often spread across a wide geography. The...four words: fault, error, failure, and hazard . These are defined and illustrated in Box 4.2. Information Loss and Traceability As noted above, the...design information when payback is uncertain, diffuse , or most likely far in the future. A goal in formulating incentive models that motivate developer

Otitis Media with Effusion: Its Significance in the Deaf Student.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

Otitis media with effusion currently ranks as the most common cause of hearing loss in children of preschool and school age. Otitis media with...makes the difference between usable auditory input and useless noise. The etiology of otitis media with effusion is uncertain. Its educational...paper explores the extent of otitis media with effusion, its effects, what methods are available for detection, current and future methods of medical

Natural gas hydrates; vast resource, uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collett, T.S.

2001-01-01

Gas hydrates are naturally occurring icelike solids in which water molecules trap gas molecules in a cagelike structure known as a clathrate. Although many gases form hydrates in nature, methane hydrate is by far the most common; methane is the most abundant natural gas. The volume of carbon contained in methane hydrates worldwide is estimated to be twice the amount contained in all fossil fuels on Earth, including coal.

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2013-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Back from the Future: The Impact of Change on Airpower in the Decades Ahead

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

generic/story_generic.jsp?channel= awst &id=news/aw021108p2.xml&headline=Fate%20of%20F -22,%20C-17%20Lines%20Uncertain%20in%20Fiscal%202009; Pierre Sprey...second lot of low-rate initial production aircraft was announced on 22 May 2008 as $2.2 billion for 12 aircraft, and Maj Gen Charles R . Davis, USAF, the

The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-16

Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges. b. Consists of excise taxes, remittances to the...and employment in the next few years. The deficit reduction under the other sce- narios, by contrast, would decrease the demand for goods and services...and thus reduce output and employment in the next few years. How Uncertain Are the Long-Term Budget Projections? Even if future tax and spending

Octane and Internal Combustion Engine Advancements from a Long(er) Term Perspective: Insights from the Co-Optima Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, John T

Co-Optima research and analysis have identified fuel properties that enable advanced LD and HD engines. 95 RON will directionally improve boosted SI efficiency, but higher RON and S provide additional benefits. The optimal fuel properties for future engines are still uncertain. There are a large number of blendstocks readily derived from biomass (and petroleum) that possess beneficial properties.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Uncertain translation, uncertain benefit and uncertain risk: ethical challenges facing first-in-human trials of induced pluripotent stem (ips) cells.

PubMed

Fung, Ronald K F; Kerridge, Ian H

2013-02-01

The discovery of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells in 2006 was heralded as a major breakthrough in stem cell research. Since then, progress in iPS cell technology has paved the way towards clinical application, particularly cell replacement therapy, which has refueled debate on the ethics of stem cell research. However, much of the discourse has focused on questions of moral status and potentiality, overlooking the ethical issues which are introduced by the clinical testing of iPS cell replacement therapy. First-in-human trials, in particular, raise a number of ethical concerns including informed consent, subject recruitment and harm minimisation as well as the inherent uncertainty and risks which are involved in testing medical procedures on humans for the first time. These issues, while a feature of any human research, become more complex in the case of iPS cell therapy, given the seriousness of the potential risks, the unreliability of available animal models, the vulnerability of the target patient group, and the high stakes of such an intensely public area of science. Our paper will present a detailed case study of iPS cell replacement therapy for Parkinson's disease to highlight these broader ethical and epistemological concerns. If we accept that iPS cell technology is fraught with challenges which go far beyond merely refuting the potentiality of the stem cell line, we conclude that iPS cell research should not replace, but proceed alongside embryonic and adult somatic stem cell research to promote cross-fertilisation of knowledge and better clinical outcomes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Obstacles facing Africa's young climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Addi, Martin; Andang'o, Hezron Awiti; Attig, Bahar Faten; Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Diasso, Ulrich Jacques; Du Plessis, Marcel; Lamine, Salim; Mongwe, Precious N.; Zaroug, Modathir; Ochanda, Valentine Khasenye

2018-06-01

Current and future climate change poses a substantial threat to the African continent. Young scientists are needed to advance Earth systems science on the continent, but they face significant challenges.

Online bargaining and interpersonal trust.

PubMed

Naquin, Charles E; Paulson, Gaylen D

2003-02-01

The presented study explores the effect of interacting over the Internet on interpersonal trust when bargaining online. Relative to face-to-face negotiations, online negotiations were characterized by (a) lower levels of pre-negotiation trust and (b) lower levels of post-negotiation trust. The reduced levels of pre-negotiation trust in online negotiations (i.e., before any interaction took place) demonstrate that negotiators bring different expectations to the electronic bargaining table than to face-to-face negotiations. These negative perceptions of trust were found to mediate another aspect of the relationship, namely, desired future interaction. Those who negotiated online reported less desire for future interactions with the other party. Online negotiators also were less satisfied with their outcome and less confident in the quality of their performance, despite the absence of observable differences in economic outcome quality.

Porous silicon for drug delivery applications and theranostics: recent advances, critical review and perspectives.

PubMed

Kumeria, Tushar; McInnes, Steven J P; Maher, Shaheer; Santos, Abel

2017-12-01

Porous silicon (pSi) engineered by electrochemical etching has been used as a drug delivery vehicle to address the intrinsic limitations of traditional therapeutics. Biodegradability, biocompatibility, and optoelectronic properties make pSi a unique candidate for developing biomaterials for theranostics and photodynamic therapies. This review presents an updated overview about the recent therapeutic systems based on pSi, with a critical analysis on the problems and opportunities that this technology faces as well as highlighting pSi's growing potential. Areas covered: Recent progress in pSi-based research includes drug delivery systems, including biocompatibility studies, drug delivery, theranostics, and clinical trials with the most relevant examples of pSi-based systems presented here. A critical analysis about the technical advantages and disadvantages of these systems is provided along with an assessment on the challenges that this technology faces, including clinical trials and investors' support. Expert opinion: pSi is an outstanding material that could improve existing drug delivery and photodynamic therapies in different areas, paving the way for developing advanced theranostic nanomedicines and incorporating payloads of therapeutics with imaging capabilities. However, more extensive in-vivo studies are needed to assess the feasibility and reliability of this technology for clinical practice. The technical and commercial challenges that this technology face are still uncertain.

"It wasn't a disaster or anything": Parents' experiences of their child's uncertain chromosomal microarray result.

PubMed

Wilkins, Ella J; Archibald, Alison D; Sahhar, Margaret A; White, Susan M

2016-11-01

Chromosomal microarray is an increasingly utilized diagnostic test, particularly in the pediatric setting. However, the clinical significance of copy number variants detected by this technology is not always understood, creating uncertainties in interpreting and communicating results. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences of an uncertain microarray result for their child. This research utilized a qualitative approach with a phenomenological methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine parents of eight children who received an uncertain microarray result for their child, either a 16p11.2 microdeletion or 15q13.3 microdeletion. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was used to identify themes within the data. Participants were unprepared for the abnormal test result. They had a complex perception of the extent of their child's condition and a mixed understanding of the clinical relevance of the result, but were accepting of the limitations of medical knowledge, and appeared to have adapted to the result. The test result was empowering for parents in terms of access to medical and educational services; however, they articulated significant unmet support needs. Participants expressed hope for the future, in particular that more information would become available over time. This research has demonstrated that parents of children who have an uncertain microarray result appeared to adapt to uncertainty and limited availability of information and valued honesty and empathic ongoing support from health professionals. Genetic health professionals are well positioned to provide such support and aid patients' and families' adaptation to their situation as well as promote empowerment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Carbon and Earth’s future climate on This Week @NASA – November 13, 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-11-13

New observations from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission is providing insight into how Earth is responding to rising levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, and what this means for our future climate. Earth’s land and ocean currently absorb about half of all carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, but it’s uncertain whether the planet can keep this up in the future. Later this month, a United Nations climate meeting in Paris will focus on setting limits on future levels of human-produced carbon emissions. OCO-2 is NASA’s first satellite dedicated to measuring carbon dioxide. Also, New Horizons science update, NASA at Bay Area Science Festival, Anniversary of first spacecraft landing on a comet, Cygnus being prepared for launch, and Girls Rising in Math and Science!

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE PAGES

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel; ...

2017-07-10

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

The state of American health care: November 2016 to November 2020, a look forward.

PubMed

Marmor, Theodore; Gusmano, Michael K

2018-01-01

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the retention of Republican majorities in the US House of Representatives and Senate, raises questions about future of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the structure and funding of the country's public health insurance programs - Medicare, Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Program - and the direction of health policy in the United States, more generally. Political scientists are not renowned for their capacity to predict the future and many of those who forecast election results have received criticism in recent weeks for failing to predict the Trump victory. While the future is uncertain, it is possible for social scientists to offer a 'conditional causal analysis' about the future. This essay is an effort to think about the likely shape of American health care between now and the next US presidential election.

Testing the Feasibility of Skype and FaceTime Updates With Parents in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Epstein, Elizabeth Gingell; Sherman, Jessica; Blackman, Amy; Sinkin, Robert A

2015-07-01

Effective provider-parent relationships are essential during critical illness when treatment decisions are complex, the environment is crowded and unfamiliar, and outcomes are uncertain. To evaluate the feasibility of daily Skype or FaceTime updates with parents of patients in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and to assess the intervention's potential for improving parent-provider relationships. A pre/post mixed-methods approach was used. NICU parent participants received daily Skype or FaceTime updates for 5 days and completed demographic and feasibility surveys. Parents also completed Penticuff's Parents' Understanding survey before and after the intervention. Nurses and physicians completed feasibility surveys after each update. Twenty-six parents were enrolled and 15 completed the study. More than 90% of providers and parents perceived the intervention to be reliable and easy to use, and about 80% of parents and providers rated video and audio quality as either excellent or good. Frozen screens and missed updates due to scheduling problems were challenges. Two of the 4 subscores on the Parents' Understanding survey improved significantly. Qualitative data favor the intervention as meaningful for parents. Real-time videoconferencing via Skype or FaceTime is feasible for providing updates for parents when they cannot be present in the NICU and can be used to include parents in bedside rounds. Videoconferencing updates may improve relationships between parents and the health care team. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Air Force Journal of Logistics. Volume XXIII, Number 4, Winter 1999

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

needs of the Air Force. 2. Uses existing software developed by base-level Air Force Reserve Command units as a benchmark. MSgt Maura A. Barton, DSN... Maura A. Barton, DSN 596-4581 Follow-on Technical Support for the Weapons Load Crew Management Program LM199812000—Consulting Study 1. Ensures the... Kelly AFB, an aging munitions infrastructure, and current runway restrictions for airlift aircraft make the future of that STAMP location uncertain

Mutually Assured Deletion: The Uncertain Future of Mass Destruction In Cyberspace

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

an indelible impression on practitioners and prognosticators alike. Its integration was initially quiet, seeping into the collective consciousness ...rivals anything before witnessed in the history of warfare, a “ quantum leap forward in the level of threat.” 1 Like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, cyber...tendency toward consistency often leads to neglect ( consciously or not) of stimuli that do not fit pre-existing notions.32 Analogies, then, and

Effective Capital Provision Within Government. Methodologies for Right-Sizing Base Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

unknown distributions, since they more accurately represent the complexity of real -world problems. Forecasting uncertain future demand flows is critical to...ordering system with no time lags and no additional costs for instantaneous delivery, shortage and holding costs would be eliminated, because the...order a fixed quantity, Q. 4.1.4 Analyzed Time Step Time is an important dimension in inventory models, since the way the system changes over time affects

On actuator placement for robust time-optimal control of uncertain flexible spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Sinha, Ravi; Liu, Qiang

1992-01-01

The problem of computing open-loop, on-off jet firing logic for flexible spacecraft in the face of plant modeling uncertainty is investigated. The primary control objective is to achieve a fast maneuvering time with a minimum of structural vibrations during and/or after a maneuver. This paper is also concerned with the problem of selecting a proper pair of jets for practical trade-offs among the maneuvering time, fuel consumption, structural mode excitation, and performance robustness. A time-optimal control problem subject to parameter robustness constraints is formulated. A three-mass-spring model of flexible spacecraft with a rigid-body mode and two flexible modes is used to illustrate the concept.

Managed care for Medicare: some considerations in designing effective information provision programs.

PubMed

Jayanti, R K

2001-01-01

Consumer information-processing theory provides a useful framework for policy makers concerned with regulating information provided by managed care organizations. The assumption that consumers are rational information processors and providing more information is better is questioned in this paper. Consumer research demonstrates that when faced with an uncertain decision, consumers adopt simplifying strategies leading to sub-optimal choices. A discussion on how consumers process risk information and the effects of various informational formats on decision outcomes is provided. Categorization theory is used to propose guidelines with regard to providing effective information to consumers choosing among competing managed care plans. Public policy implications borne out of consumer information-processing theory conclude the article.

The Summer Food Service Program and the Ongoing Hunger Crisis in Mississippi.

PubMed

Cobern, Jade A; Shell, Kathryn J; Henderson, Everett R; Beech, Bettina M; Batlivala, Sarosh P

2015-10-01

Food insecurity is simply defined as uncertain access to adequate food. Nearly 50 million Americans, 16 million of whom are children, are food insecure. Mississippi has 21% food insecure citizens, and has the most food insecure county in the nation. Our state's school system's National Breakfast and Lunch Programs help combat food insecurity, but a gap still exists. This gap widens during the summer. In this paper, we describe the Mississippi Summer Food Service Program. While the program has had success in our state, it still faces challenges. Organized action by physicians in Mississippi and the Mississippi State Medical Association could significantly increase participation in these programs that are vital to our state.

Design of a new high-performance pointing controller for the Hubble Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. D.

1993-01-01

A new form of high-performance, disturbance-adaptive pointing controller for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is proposed. This new controller is all linear (constant gains) and can maintain accurate 'pointing' of the HST in the face of persistent randomly triggered uncertain, unmeasurable 'flapping' motions of the large attached solar array panels. Similar disturbances associated with antennas and other flexible appendages can also be accommodated. The effectiveness and practicality of the proposed new controller is demonstrated by a detailed design and simulation testing of one such controller for a planar-motion, fully nonlinear model of HST. The simulation results show a high degree of disturbance isolation and pointing stability.

Career mobility: equipping nurses for health care beyond the year 2000.

PubMed

Doswell, W M

1996-01-01

Nurses are faced with uncertain employment in today's rapidly changing work place. The key to survival in this environment is to provide innovative, cost-effective, yet outcome-oriented methods of patient care delivery. Professional nurses and nursing students should make career mobility their watchword. Career mobility defines a planned trajectory which is flexible, role-expandable, and capable of adjusting to the sudden changes in direction which arise as nurses progress through their professional career. Nursing students must carefully examine the educational program they chose, and, once graduated, should use an innovative approach to the health care job market, with emphasis on professional nursing careers outside the traditional employment roles.

Variational Assimilation of Sparse and Uncertain Satellite Data For 1D Saint-Venant River Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garambois, P. A.; Brisset, P.; Monnier, J.; Roux, H.

2016-12-01

Profusion of satellites are providing increasingly accurate measurements of continental water cyle, and water bodies variations while in situ observability is declining. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide maps of river surface elevations widths and slopes with an almost global coverage and temporal revisits. This will offer the possibility to address a larger variety of inverse problems in surface hydrology. Data assimilation techniques, that are broadly used in several scientific fields, aim to optimally combine models, system observations and prior information. Variational assimilation consists in iterative minimization of a discrepency measure between model outputs and observations, here for retrieving boundary conditions and parameters of a 1D Saint Venant model. Nevertheless, inferring river discharge and hydraulic parameters thanks to the observation of river surface is not straightforward. This is particularly true in the case of sparse and uncertain observations of flow state variables since they are governed by nonlinear physical processes. This paper investigates the identifiability of hydraulic controls given sparse and uncertain satellite observations of a river. The identifiability of river discharge alone and with roughness is tested for several spatio temporal patterns of river observations, including SWOT like observations. A new 1D Shallow water model with variational data assimilation, within the DassFlow chain is presented as well as postprocessing and observation operator dedicated to the future SWOT and SWOT simulator data. In view to decrease inverse problem dimensionality discharge is represented in a reduced basis. Moreover we introduce an original and reduced parametrization of the flow resistance that can account for various flow regimes along with a cross section design dedicated to remote sensing. We show which discharge temporal frequencies can be identified w.r.t observation ones and at which accuracy. Eventually the important question of the discharge identifiability potential between observation times and depending on the spatio-temporal sampling is adressed with respect to the wave lengths of the hydrological signals.

Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design, thus alleviating the risk of mis-adaptation, namely the design of a solution fully adapted to a scenario that is different from the one that will actually realize.

Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2017-12-01

Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Combined Lidar-Radar Remote Sensing: Initial Results from CRYSTAL-FACE and Implications for Future Spaceflight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGill, Matthew J.; Li, Li-Hua; Hart, William D.; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Hlavka, Dennis L.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.

2003-01-01

In the near future NASA plans to fly satellites carrying a multi-wavelength backscatter lidar and a 94-GHz cloud profiling radar in formation to provide complete global profiling of cloud and aerosol properties. The CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign, conducted during July 2002, provided the first high-altitude colocated measurements from lidar and cloud profiling radar to simulate these spaceborne sensors. The lidar and radar provide complementary measurements with varying degrees of measurement overlap. This paper presents initial results of the combined airborne lidar-radar measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE. The overlap of instrument sensitivity is presented, within the context of particular CRYSTAL-FACE conditions. Results are presented to quantify the portion of atmospheric profiles sensed independently by each instrument and the portion sensed simultaneously by the two instruments.

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Fackler, Paul L.; Boomer, G Scott; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.; Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

The hidden truths of the belly: the uncertainties of pregnancy in early modern Europe. (Society for the Social History of Medicine Student Prize Essay 1999, runner-up.).

PubMed

McClive, Cathy

2002-08-01

For early modern men and women and their medical practitioners, the experience and understanding of pregnancy was primarily uncertain. This uncertainty extended to the whole process of pregnancy--from the moment of conception to delivery, the detection and bearing of a 'true fruit' was doubtful. This 'uncertainty' was heightened by the fact that both body and language could conceal the truth. The woman herself was frequently uncertain and could be mistaken in her interpretation of the condition of her belly. This ambiguity is expressed in the vague and faltering language used to describe such experiences. Women's bodies were believed to conceal the truth more readily than their male counterparts. Equally a woman's physical narrative was more likely to be distrusted. Tensions surrounding the appropriate nature of women's 'knowledge' of such hidden 'secrets' also affected the ways in which women and their practitioners described the 'truths' of the belly. This article traces the ambiguities faced by women and their midwives/accoucheurs through three areas of pregnancy: quickening, false conceptions, and the threat of miscarriage. The much-neglected source of medical texts and observations is drawn upon, alongside letters and diaries and judicial material.

Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

1999-09-01

When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.

Adaptive walking of a quadrupedal robot based on layered biological reflexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiuli; Mingcheng, E.; Zeng, Xiangyu; Zheng, Haojun

2012-07-01

A multiple-legged robot is traditionally controlled by using its dynamic model. But the dynamic-model-based approach fails to acquire satisfactory performances when the robot faces rough terrains and unknown environments. Referring animals' neural control mechanisms, a control model is built for a quadruped robot walking adaptively. The basic rhythmic motion of the robot is controlled by a well-designed rhythmic motion controller(RMC) comprising a central pattern generator(CPG) for hip joints and a rhythmic coupler (RC) for knee joints. CPG and RC have relationships of motion-mapping and rhythmic couple. Multiple sensory-motor models, abstracted from the neural reflexes of a cat, are employed. These reflex models are organized and thus interact with the CPG in three layers, to meet different requirements of complexity and response time to the tasks. On the basis of the RMC and layered biological reflexes, a quadruped robot is constructed, which can clear obstacles and walk uphill and downhill autonomously, and make a turn voluntarily in uncertain environments, interacting with the environment in a way similar to that of an animal. The paper provides a biologically inspired architecture, with which a robot can walk adaptively in uncertain environments in a simple and effective way, and achieve better performances.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Future Orientation in Times of Threat and Challenge: How Resilient Adolescents Construct Their Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seginer, Rachel

2008-01-01

Drawing on the importance of future orientation for adolescent development this analysis presents a model describing how future orientation is affected by high challenge (or resilience) in the face of political violence. The analysis consists of three parts. The first two present future orientation conceptualization and the psychological processes…

Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

PubMed

Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

2000-09-01

In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces.

Critical Problems Facing Technology Education: Perceptions of Indiana Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazaros, Edward J.; Rogers, George E.

2006-01-01

In 1993 Wicklein conducted a study to determine the present and the future critical issues and problems facing the technology education (TE) profession. The Wicklein study questioned 25 panelists from 15 states and the District of Columbia to ascertain the issues and problems facing TE. However, in the Wicklein study, only seven of the panelists…

Demand for command: responding to technological risks and scientific uncertainties.

PubMed

Stokes, Elen

2013-01-01

This article seeks to add to current theories of new governance by highlighting the predicament facing regulators and regulatees when dealing with new technologies. Using nanotechnologies as a study, it shows that new modes of governance (as opposed to traditional coercive, or command and control regulation) offer promising solutions to highly complex, uncertain, and contested problems of risk, such as those associated with new technologies. In this regard, nanotechnologies provide a useful test bed for the ambitions of newer, better modes of governance because there are not yet any fixed ideas about the appropriate course of action. The article suggests, however, that examples of new governance are less prominent than perhaps expected. Drawing on empirical data, it argues that, when faced with considerable epistemological, political, economic, and ethical uncertainties, regulatory stakeholders often exhibit a preference for more conventional command methods of regulation. That is not to say that new governance is entirely absent from regulatory policies on nanotechnologies, but that new governance is emerging in perhaps more subtle ways than the scholarly and policy literature predicted.

Women and cosmetic breast surgery: weighing the medical, social, and lifestyle risks.

PubMed

Boulton, Tiffany N; Malacrida, Claudia

2012-04-01

In this article we provide a comparative analysis of qualitative, semistructured interviews with 24 women who had undergone different forms of cosmetic breast surgery (CBS). We argue that women must negotiate three types of risk: potential medical risks, lifestyle risks connected with choosing "frivolous" self-enhancements, and countervailing social risks affiliated with pressures to maximize one's feminine beauty. In addition, we highlight the challenges faced in negotiating these risks by examining the limits to traditional forms of medical informed consent provided to the women, who received little information on the medical risks associated with CBS, or who were given uncertain and contradictory risk information. Even respondents who felt that they were well informed expressed difficulties in making "wise" choices because the risks were distant or unlikely, and hence easily minimized. Given this, it is fairly understandable that the known social risks of "failed" beauty faced by the women often outweighed the ambiguous or understated risks outlined by medicine. We argue that traditional notions of informed consent and risk awareness might not be adequate for women choosing CBS.

RUBIDIUM ABUNDANCES IN THE GLOBULAR CLUSTERS NGC 6752, NGC 1904, AND NGC 104 (47 Tuc)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Orazi, Valentina; Lugaro, Maria; Campbell, Simon W.

2013-10-10

Large star-to-star variations of the abundances of proton-capture elements, such as Na and O, in globular clusters (GCs) are interpreted as the effect of internal pollution resulting from the presence of multiple stellar populations. To better constrain this scenario, we investigate the abundance distribution of the heavy element rubidium (Rb) in NGC 6752, NGC 1904, and NGC 104 (47 Tuc). Combining the results from our sample with those in the literature, we found that Rb exhibits no star-to-star variations, regardless of cluster metallicity, with the possible intriguing, although very uncertain, exception of the metal-rich bulge cluster NGC 6388. If nomore » star-to-star variations can be confirmed for all GCs, this finding implies that the stellar source of the proton-capture element variations must not have produced significant amounts of Rb. This element is observed to be enhanced at extremely high levels in intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (IM-AGB) stars in the Magellanic Clouds (i.e., at a metallicity similar to 47 Tuc and NGC 6388). This fact may present a challenge to this popular candidate polluter, unless the mass range of the observed IM-AGB stars does not participate in the formation of the second-generation stars in GCs. A number of possible solutions are available to resolve this conundrum, including the fact that the Magellanic Cloud observations are very uncertain and may need to be revised. The fast rotating massive stars scenario would not face this potential problem as the slow mechanical winds of these stars during their main-sequence phase do not carry any Rb enhancements; however, these candidates face even bigger issues such as the production of Li and the close overlap with core-collapse supernova timescales. Observations of Sr, Rb, and Zr in metal-rich clusters such as NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 are sorely needed to clarify the situation.« less

The time course of face processing: startle eyeblink response modulation by face gender and expression.

PubMed

Duval, Elizabeth R; Lovelace, Christopher T; Aarant, Justin; Filion, Diane L

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of both facial expression and face gender on startle eyeblink response patterns at varying lead intervals (300, 800, and 3500ms) indicative of attentional and emotional processes. We aimed to determine whether responses to affective faces map onto the Defense Cascade Model (Lang et al., 1997) to better understand the stages of processing during affective face viewing. At 300ms, there was an interaction between face expression and face gender with female happy and neutral faces and male angry faces producing inhibited startle. At 3500ms, there was a trend for facilitated startle during angry compared to neutral faces. These findings suggest that affective expressions are perceived differently in male and female faces, especially at short lead intervals. Future studies investigating face processing should take both face gender and expression into account. © 2013.

Still in the Shadows with Their Future Uncertain. A Report on Family and Individual Needs for Disability Supports (FINDS), 2011. Summary of Key Findings and a Call to Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Lynda; Larson, Sheryl A.; Wuorio, Allise; Lakin, K. Charlie

2011-01-01

In light of the fiftieth anniversary of President Kennedy's call to action back in 1961, The Arc wanted to know if people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD) are still living in the shadows. So, they launched a national online survey, Family and Individual Needs for Disability Supports (FINDS), from July 22, 2010 to October 31,…

A study of crystal growth by solution technique. [triglycine sulfate single crystals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lal, R. B.

1979-01-01

The advantages and mechanisms of crystal growth from solution are discussed as well as the effects of impurity adsorption on the kinetics of crystal growth. Uncertainities regarding crystal growth in a low gravity environment are examined. Single crystals of triglycine sulfate were grown using a low temperature solution technique. Small components were assembled and fabricated for future space flights. A space processing experiment proposal accepted by NASA for the Spacelab-3 mission is included.

The Majorana mystery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Salvatore

2010-03-01

"For years after I first learned about Ettore Majorana, I wanted to write a book about his life... but I always deferred to an uncertain future the act of putting pen to paper. Then, one day I read a newspaper clipping and realized that the mystery was about to come full circle. Ettore had just turned one hundred, and a major discovery had been made in the deep waters near Catania. The time had arrived for the final unveiling of the Majorana legacy."

More tooth, Less Skull: Force Structure Changes for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-17

deployments in OIF and OEF are the archetypes for force employment and span of control, highlighting the limits of modularity and the creation of ad hoc...square miles in extent. There was a wider dispersion of formations to minimize the effect of an enemy’s tactical atomic weapons. At the same time, this...The sweeping reorganization to meet the requirements of the atomic battlefield became the Pentomic Division. The Pentomic Division, officially known

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.

Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beevers, Lindsay; Collet, Lila

2017-04-01

Over the past decade there have been significant challenges to water management posed by both floods and droughts. In the UK, since 2000 flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, and direct costs from the recent drought (2011-12) are estimated to be between £70-165M, arising from impacts on public and industrial water supply. Projections of future climate change suggest an increase in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards, but there is significant uncertainty associated with these projections. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme flows and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections, particularly changes in the seasonality of such hazards. This paper aims to assess the changes in seasonality of peak and low flows across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database; an 11-member ensemble of transient river flow projections from January 1951 to December 2098. We analyse the daily river flow over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for 281 gauging stations. For each ensemble member, annual maxima (AMAX) and minima (AMIN) are extracted for both time periods for each gauging station. The month of the year the AMAX and AMIN occur respectively are recorded for each of the 30 years in the past and the future time periods. The uncertainty of the AMAX and AMIN occurrence temporally (monthly) is assessed across the 11 ensemble members, as well as the changes to this temporal signal between the baseline and the 2080s. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture (spatially) of high and low flows occurrence temporally and allows the assessment of possible changes in hydrological dynamics as a result of climate change in a statistical framework. Results will quantify the uncertainty related to the Climate Model parameters which are cascaded into the modelling chain. This study highlights the issues facing hydrological cycle management, due to changing spatial and temporal trends in order to anticipate and adapt to hydro-hazard changes in an uncertain context.

Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

2018-04-01

Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone, that have an emissions-induced uncertainty representing more than 40% of the uncertainty in the Earth system’s response.

A virtual observatory in a real world: building capacity for an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, Gordon; Buytaert, Wouter; Emmett, Bridget; Freer, Jim; Gurney, Robert; Haygarth, Phil; McDonald, Adrian; Rees, Gwyn; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

2010-05-01

Environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access. To support such a challenge requires new tools and new approaches. The VO is a new initiative from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for these new tools and approaches. The VO is at an early stage and we first evaluate the role of existing ‘observatories' in the UK and elsewhere both to learn good practice (and just as valuable - errors) and to define boundaries. A series of exemplar ‘big catchment science questions' are posed - distinguishing between science and society positions - and the prospects for their solution are assessed. The VO vision of being driven by these questions is outlined as are the seven key ambitions namely: i. being driven by the need to contribute to the solution of major environmental issues that impinge on, or link to, catchment science ii. having the flexibility and adaptability to address future problems not yet defined or fully clarified iii. being able to communicate issues and solutions to a range of audiences iv. supporting easy access by a variety of users v. drawing meaningful information from data and models and identifying the constraints on application in terms of errors, uncertainties, etc vi. adding value and cost effectiveness to current investigations by supporting transfer and scale adjustment thus limiting the repetition of expensive field monitoring addressing essentially the same issues in varying locations vii. promoting effective interfacing of robust science with a variety of end users by using terminology or measures familiar to the user (or required by regulation), including financial and carbon accounting, whole life or fixed period costing, risk as probability or as disability adjusted life years/ etc as appropriate Portal structures pivotal to communicating these ambitions are presented and emphasis is given to the importance of the ‘environmental cloud', the cloud computing that facilitates the required interoperability across data sets, models, visualisations etc. The timetable for delivering a proof of concept evaluation is outlined.