Social and emotional relevance in face processing: happy faces of future interaction partners enhance the late positive potential

PubMed Central

Bublatzky, Florian; Gerdes, Antje B. M.; White, Andrew J.; Riemer, Martin; Alpers, Georg W.

2014-01-01

Human face perception is modulated by both emotional valence and social relevance, but their interaction has rarely been examined. Event-related brain potentials (ERP) to happy, neutral, and angry facial expressions with different degrees of social relevance were recorded. To implement a social anticipation task, relevance was manipulated by presenting faces of two specific actors as future interaction partners (socially relevant), whereas two other face actors remained non-relevant. In a further control task all stimuli were presented without specific relevance instructions (passive viewing). Face stimuli of four actors (2 women, from the KDEF) were randomly presented for 1s to 26 participants (16 female). Results showed an augmented N170, early posterior negativity (EPN), and late positive potential (LPP) for emotional in contrast to neutral facial expressions. Of particular interest, face processing varied as a function of experimental tasks. Whereas task effects were observed for P1 and EPN regardless of instructed relevance, LPP amplitudes were modulated by emotional facial expression and relevance manipulation. The LPP was specifically enhanced for happy facial expressions of the anticipated future interaction partners. This underscores that social relevance can impact face processing already at an early stage of visual processing. These findings are discussed within the framework of motivated attention and face processing theories. PMID:25076881

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

20+ Years of Environmental Education Centers in Greece: Teachers' Perceptions and Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yanniris, Constantinos

2015-01-01

For the first time after decades of expansion and systematic innovative practice, environmental education in Greece faces an uncertain future as a result of the contemporary political and economic crisis. This research aims to contribute to the international exchange of good practices by focusing on the effects and functions of the Greek network…

Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

2013-01-01

Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

A shifting mosaic of scholarly publishing, scientific delivery, and future impact changing the face of learned societies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leslie, David M.

2007-01-01

Nonprofit scientific societies hope that their activities advance their particular mission and impact their profession and, in the broadest sense, humanity in positive ways. The digital age has provided unprecedented mechanisms to enhance the delivery of science to the world. The marketplace of scientific publishing is a rapidly shifting mosaic of challenges and opportunities, and the responses of nonprofit and commercial publishers vary widely, but their outcomes are still uncertain. The response of the American Society of Mammalogists (ASM) provides an example of how a relatively small society has altered its scientific delivery to enhance member benefits while attempting to sustain its economic viability. Since 2000, ASM has moved from a self-publishing, break-even, print-only model to a copublishing agreement with a commercial publisher (Alliance Communications Group, a division of Allen Press, Inc., Lawrence, Kansas), which now offers members various print and electronic options and generates a shared royalty. Although it is too early to gauge the economic impact of these changes, the ASM leadership clearly attempted to signal its desire for members to view their society as a package of opportunities for edification and involvement rather than just a provider of serial subscriptions. Future challenges facing nonprofit scientific societies include open access, fiscal realities, archiving of publications, and scientific and societal impact; future opportunities include a strengthening of member responsibilities and professionalism, development of data registries to enhance scientific progress, and bundling of like societies. The manner in which nonprofit scientific societies respond to these challenges and opportunities will no doubt affect their sustainability and future impact. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Uncertain behaviours of integrated circuits improve computational performance.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Chihiro; Yamaoka, Masanao; Hayashi, Masato; Okuyama, Takuya; Aoki, Hidetaka; Kawarabayashi, Ken-ichi; Mizuno, Hiroyuki

2015-11-20

Improvements to the performance of conventional computers have mainly been achieved through semiconductor scaling; however, scaling is reaching its limitations. Natural phenomena, such as quantum superposition and stochastic resonance, have been introduced into new computing paradigms to improve performance beyond these limitations. Here, we explain that the uncertain behaviours of devices due to semiconductor scaling can improve the performance of computers. We prototyped an integrated circuit by performing a ground-state search of the Ising model. The bit errors of memory cell devices holding the current state of search occur probabilistically by inserting fluctuations into dynamic device characteristics, which will be actualised in the future to the chip. As a result, we observed more improvements in solution accuracy than that without fluctuations. Although the uncertain behaviours of devices had been intended to be eliminated in conventional devices, we demonstrate that uncertain behaviours has become the key to improving computational performance.

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preparing for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefkowits, Laura; Miller, Kirsten

2007-01-01

In this article, the authors explain a method that helps policymakers and educators to identify the forces and trends affecting education today and to project how they might conceivably play out in the future. They suggest that by asking "What if?" in a disciplined way, it might be better to imagine the possibilities of tomorrow in order to take…

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

Future Schools: Blending Face-to-Face and Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schorr, Jonathan; McGriff, Deborah

2012-01-01

"Hybrid schools" are schools that combine "face-to-face" education in a specific place with online instruction. In this article, the authors describe school models which offer a vision for what deeply integrated technology can mean for children's education, for the way schools are structured, and for the promise of greater…

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

"Put on a Happy Face"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, Michael

2004-01-01

All evaluators face the challenge of striving to adhere to the highest possible standards of ethical conduct. Translating the AEA's Guiding Principles and the Joint Committee's Program Evaluation Standards into everyday practice, however, can be a complex, uncertain, and frustrating endeavor. Moreover, acting in an ethical fashion can require…

Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the near Future of American Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladner, Matthew

2015-01-01

"Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be

Faces of the Future: A Portrait of First-Generation Community College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nomi, Takako

2005-01-01

The Faces of the Future Survey is the first national survey developed to examine the lives and experiences of credit and noncredit community college students. This report summarizes survey findings on the demographic characteristics, goals, and college experiences of the nation's first-generation community college students who are enrolled in…

The rehabilitation of face recognition impairments: a critical review and future directions

PubMed Central

Bate, Sarah; Bennetts, Rachel J.

2014-01-01

While much research has investigated the neural and cognitive characteristics of face recognition impairments (prosopagnosia), much less work has examined their rehabilitation. In this paper, we present a critical analysis of the studies that have attempted to improve face-processing skills in acquired and developmental prosopagnosia, and place them in the context of the wider neurorehabilitation literature. First, we examine whether neuroplasticity within the typical face-processing system varies across the lifespan, in order to examine whether timing of intervention may be crucial. Second, we examine reports of interventions in acquired prosopagnosia, where training in compensatory strategies has had some success. Third, we examine reports of interventions in developmental prosopagnosia, where compensatory training in children and remedial training in adults have both been successful. However, the gains are somewhat limited—compensatory strategies have resulted in labored recognition techniques and limited generalization to untrained faces, and remedial techniques require longer periods of training and result in limited maintenance of gains. Critically, intervention suitability and outcome in both forms of the condition likely depends on a complex interaction of factors, including prosopagnosia severity, the precise functional locus of the impairment, and individual differences such as age. Finally, we discuss future directions in the rehabilitation of prosopagnosia, and the possibility of boosting the effects of cognitive training programmes by simultaneous administration of oxytocin or non-invasive brain stimulation. We conclude that future work using more systematic methods and larger participant groups is clearly required, and in the case of developmental prosopagnosia, there is an urgent need to develop early detection and remediation tools for children, in order to optimize intervention outcome. PMID:25100965

Deep-time moles: art and archiving for an uncertain radiological future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Dave; Illingworth, Samuel; Girling, Matt

2017-04-01

This paper will present Deep Field [UnclearZine], a 2016 art-science project conducted at Mol and Dessel, two neighbouring rural villages co-existing with sites for planned geological nuclear-waste disposal in eastern Belgium. Dave Griffiths produced a microfiche publication that probes and narrates the scientific testing and politics of decision-making surrounding controversial ONDRAF-NIRAS (Belgian National Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials) projects - at CatA, a tumulus for encasing low-level waste, and HADES, a lab investigating the feasibility and safety-case for deep-time geo-burial of high-level waste in clay strata. Griffiths' field work used qualitative and experiential methods such as ethnographic interviews with state scientists and independent monitoring groups, photographic derive, and sound recording, to sense a wider Anthropogenic narrative of energy production, mineral extraction and terrorist threat. Data were then remixed through narrative responses by scientist-poet Dr Sam Illingworth (Manchester Metropolitan University) and DIY-comix artist Matt Girling. Through experimenting with archaic analogue film technology, Griffiths collaged and miniaturised content to produce an edition of microfiches that have been distributed to zine libraries internationally. This subcultural format attempts to translate the past, present and future history of the repositories as folkloric sites of conflict, complexity and unknowing, for the benefit of a far-future readership. The paper will discuss the contemporary context of epistemological uncertainty around the survival and reception of crucial nuclear-security information in the face of inevitable material, linguistic and political ruination. We suggest that place-markers, as monumental semiotic warnings to the future, along with digital archives, might also be augmented by decentralised analogue fragments that promote ongoing memorialisation of nuclear-heritage sites through

Interpretation bias for uncertain threat: A replication and extension.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Raines, Amanda M; Short, Nicole A; Capron, Daniel W; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-06-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within various anxiety-related disorders. Research has suggested that individuals high in IU may interpret ambiguous information in a more threatening manner, suggesting a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information. However, interpretation biases within IU have not been adequately tested in the literature. The current study evaluated negative interpretation biases for uncertain information by directly measuring an individual's interpretations of ambiguous information across two samples. Participants consisted of 76 (Study 1; 72.4% female) and 31 (Study 2; 81% female) undergraduate students. Results indicated that individuals high in IU interpret ambiguous scenarios as more threatening compared to negative and/or positive scenarios (β = .45, p = .02). In addition, individuals high in IU showed a negative interpretation bias for ambiguous information, but not benign information (Study 1: β = -.40, p < .001; Study 2: β = -.57, p = .002). Future research should attempt to replicate these findings within clinical populations. In addition, future work would benefit from the inclusion of behavioral assessments of IU. These findings are the first to detect the presence of a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information among individuals high in IU utilizing a task designed to directly measure an individual's interpretation of information. Given the efficacy and low economic burden associated with interpretation bias modification protocols, and the transdiagnostic nature of IU, targeting IU within these protocols could have a tremendous public health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity.

PubMed

Neta, Maital; Cantelon, Julie; Haga, Zachary; Mahoney, Caroline R; Taylor, Holly A; Davis, F Caroline

2017-12-01

Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Robust fuel- and time-optimal control of uncertain flexible space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Sinha, Ravi; Sunkel, John; Cox, Ken

1993-01-01

The problem of computing open-loop, fuel- and time-optimal control inputs for flexible space structures in the face of modeling uncertainty is investigated. Robustified, fuel- and time-optimal pulse sequences are obtained by solving a constrained optimization problem subject to robustness constraints. It is shown that 'bang-off-bang' pulse sequences with a finite number of switchings provide a practical tradeoff among the maneuvering time, fuel consumption, and performance robustness of uncertain flexible space structures.

Oral Health Disparities and the Future Face of America.

PubMed

Ebersole, J L; D'Souza, R; Gordon, S; Fox, C H

2012-11-01

The 4th Annual AADR Fall Focused Symposium (FFS), "Oral Health Disparities Research and the Future Face of America", took place on November 3-4, 2011 in Washington, DC. The FFS strategy was developed by the AADR to help provide additional opportunities for members to engage in research discussions during the year by identifying specific research topics of interest among the 21 Scientific Groups and 4 Networks of the IADR and targeting a focused topic area for the FFS. The conference attracted an international group of approximately 120 registrants, including participants from Canada, India, Mexico, and China; 4 oral sessions and 32 poster presentations were offered.

On the Cutting Edge: Face-to-Face and Virtual Professional Development for Current and Future Geoscience Faculty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, H.; Manduca, C. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Iverson, E. A.; Kirk, K. B.; Beane, R. J.; McConnell, D.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.

2011-12-01

On the Cutting Edge, a comprehensive, discipline-wide professional development program for current and future geoscience faculty, aims to develop a geoscience professoriate committed to high-quality instruction based on currency in scientific knowledge, good pedagogic practice, and research on learning. Our program provides an integrated workshop series and online teaching resources. Since 2002, we have offered more than 80 face-to-face workshops, virtual workshops and webinars, and hybrid events. Participants come from two-year colleges and four-year colleges and universities. The workshop series is designed to address the needs of faculty in all career stages at the full spectrum of institutions and covering the breadth of the geoscience curriculum. We select timely and compelling topics and create opportunities of interest to faculty. We offer workshops on course design, new geoscience research and pedagogical topics, core geoscience curriculum topics, and introductory courses as well as workshops for early career faculty and for future faculty. Our workshops are designed to model good teaching practice. We set workshop goals that guide workshop planning and evaluation. Workshops are interactive, emphasize participant learning, provide opportunities for participants to interact and share experience/knowledge, provide good resources, give participants time to reflect and to develop action plans, and help transform their ideas about teaching. We emphasize the importance of adaptation in the context of their specific situations. For virtual workshops and webinars we use icebreakers and other structured interactions to build a comfortable workshop community; promote interaction through features on webinar software, chat-aided question and answer, small-group synchronous interactions, and/or discussion boards; plan detailed schedules for workshop events; use asynchronous discussions and recordings of synchronous events given that participants are busy with their

Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

2017-11-01

Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education. Policy Paper Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladner, Matthew

2015-01-01

"Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

Adapting wheat to uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Mikhail; Stratonovitch, Pierre

2015-04-01

This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 RCPs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. Climate sensitivity indexes for temperature and precipitation were computed for all GCMs and for 21 regions in the world. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM × RCP, climate sensitivity indexes could be used to select a subset of GCMs from CMIP5 with contrasting climate sensitivity. This would allow to quantify uncertainty in impacts resulting from the CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. As an example, an in silico design of wheat ideotype optimised for future climate scenarios in Europe was described. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, "hot" HadGEM2-ES and "cool" GISS-E2-R-CC, along with 2 RCPs. Despite large uncertainty in climate projections, several wheat traits were identified as beneficial for the high-yielding wheat ideotypes that could be used as targets for wheat improvement by breeders.

SPACE: Vision and Reality: Face to Face. Proceedings Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

The proceedings of the 11th National Space Symposium entitled 'Vision and Reality: Face to Face' is presented. Technological areas discussed include the following sections: Vision for the future; Positioning for the future; Remote sensing, the emerging era; space opportunities, Competitive vision with acquisition reality; National security requirements in space; The world is into space; and The outlook for space. An appendice is also attached.

"The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity": Correction.

PubMed

2018-04-01

Reports an error in "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity" by Maital Neta, Julie Cantelon, Zachary Haga, Caroline R. Mahoney, Holly A. Taylor and F. Caroline Davis ( Emotion , 2017[Dec], Vol 17[8], 1137-1143). In this article, the copyright attribution was incorrectly listed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license due to production-related error. The correct copyright should be "In the public domain." The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-40275-001.) Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to

Compete, coordinate, and cooperate: How to exploit uncertain environments with social interaction.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2015-10-01

Countless decisions, from the trivial to the crucial, are made in complex social contexts while facing uncertain consequences. Yet a large portion of decision making research focuses on either the effects of social interaction or the effects of environmental uncertainty by examining strategic games against others or individual games against nature. Drawing a connection between these approaches, the authors extend a standard individual choice paradigm to include social interaction with 1 other person. In this paradigm, 2 competing decision makers repeatedly select among 2 options, each offering a particular probability of a fixed payoff. When both players choose the same, correct option, the payoff is evenly split; when they choose different options, the player choosing the correct option receives the full payoff. The addition of this social dimension gives players an opportunity to fully exploit an uncertain environment via cooperation: By consistently choosing opposite options, two players can exploit the uncertain environment more effectively than a single player could. We present 2 experiments that manipulate environmental (Experiment 1) and social (Experiment 2) aspects of the paradigm. In Experiment 1, the outcome probabilities were either known or unknown to participants; in Experiment 2, participants' attention was drawn to individual or group gains by introducing either within- or between-group competition. Efficient cooperation did not emerge spontaneously in Experiment 1. Instead, most people probability maximized, mirroring the behavior observed in individual choice. By contrast, between--group competition in Experiment 2 facilitated efficient-but not always equitable--exploitation of uncertain environments. This work links the concepts of individual risky choice and strategic decision making under both environmental and social uncertainty. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Facing the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallin, Alice, Ed.

1983-01-01

Ways that Catholic colleges and universities are trying to fulfill their role are discussed in articles by six college presidents and a church historian. In "The Catholic Liberal Art College: Has It a Future?" John Tracy Ellis notes some of the roots to be reaffirmed by Catholic colleges. In "Preparing for the Millennium," Theodore M. Hesburgh…

Fertility in China: An uncertain future

PubMed Central

Basten, Stuart; Jiang, Quanbao

2015-01-01

As one of the world’s two population ‘billionaires’, the future of China’s population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country’s famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges. PMID:25912921

The doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for uncertain clinical decisions.

PubMed

Diamond-Brown, Lauren

2016-06-01

Medical uncertainty is a well-recognized problem in healthcare, yet how doctors make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains to be understood. This article draws on interdisciplinary literature on uncertainty and physician decision-making to examine a specific physician response to uncertainty: using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit. Additionally, I ask what happens to this process when the doctor-patient relationship becomes fragmented. I answer these questions by examining obstetrician-gynecologists' narratives regarding how they make decisions when faced with uncertainty in childbirth. Between 2013 and 2014, I performed 21 semi-structured interviews with obstetricians in the United States. Obstetricians were selected to maximize variation in relevant physician, hospital, and practice characteristics. I began with grounded theory and moved to analytical coding of themes in relation to relevant literature. My analysis renders it evident that some physicians use the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for dealing with uncertainty. I analyze how this process varies for physicians in different models of care by comparing doctors' experiences in models with continuous versus fragmented doctor-patient relationships. My key findings are that obstetricians in both models appealed to the ideal of patient-centered decision-making to cope with uncertain decisions, but in practice physicians in fragmented care faced a number of challenges to using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for decision-making. These challenges led to additional uncertainties and in some cases to poor outcomes for doctors and/or patients; they also raised concerns about the reproduction of inequality. Thus organization of care delivery mitigates the efficacy of doctors' use of the doctor-patient relationship toolkit for uncertain decisions. These findings have implications for theorizing about decision-making under conditions of medical uncertainty, for understanding

Combined Lidar-Radar Remote Sensing: Initial Results from CRYSTAL-FACE and Implications for Future Spaceflight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGill, Matthew J.; Li, Li-Hua; Hart, William D.; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Hlavka, Dennis L.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.

2003-01-01

In the near future NASA plans to fly satellites carrying a multi-wavelength backscatter lidar and a 94-GHz cloud profiling radar in formation to provide complete global profiling of cloud and aerosol properties. The CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign, conducted during July 2002, provided the first high-altitude colocated measurements from lidar and cloud profiling radar to simulate these spaceborne sensors. The lidar and radar provide complementary measurements with varying degrees of measurement overlap. This paper presents initial results of the combined airborne lidar-radar measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE. The overlap of instrument sensitivity is presented, within the context of particular CRYSTAL-FACE conditions. Results are presented to quantify the portion of atmospheric profiles sensed independently by each instrument and the portion sensed simultaneously by the two instruments.

Optimal Decision Making in a Class of Uncertain Systems Based on Uncertain Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubnicki, Z.

2006-06-01

The paper is concerned with a class of uncertain systems described by relational knowledge representations with unknown parameters which are assumed to be values of uncertain variables characterized by a user in the form of certainty distributions. The first part presents the basic optimization problem consisting in finding the decision maximizing the certainty index that the requirement given by a user is satisfied. The main part is devoted to the description of the optimization problem with the given certainty threshold. It is shown how the approach presented in the paper may be applied to some problems for anticipatory systems.

Future Critical Issues and Problems Facing Technology and Engineering Education in the Commonwealth of Virginia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsioloudis, Petros; Moye, Johnny J.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to determine the future critical issues and problems facing the K-12 technology and engineering education profession in the Commonwealth of Virginia. This study was based on the Wicklein nationwide studies (1993a, 2005). Even though this study did not exactly replicate the Wicklein studies--since it was limited to…

The challenges facing midwifery educators in sustaining a future education workforce.

PubMed

Albarran, John W; Rosser, Elizabeth A

2014-08-01

national and international trends have identified concerns over the ability of health and social care workforces in meeting the needs of service users. Attention has increasingly been drawn to problems of recruiting and retaining professionals within higher education; however data in relation to the midwifery profession is scant. to examine the perceptions and experiences of midwifery educators, in south-west England, about the challenges facing them sustaining the education workforce of the future. a mixed methodology approach was adopted involving heads of midwifery education and midwife educators. midwifery participants were recruited from three higher education institutions in south west England. Data collection comprised of self-administered questionnaires plus individual qualitative interviews with heads of midwifery education (n=3), and tape recorded focus groups with midwife academics (n=19). Numerical data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Textual data were analysed for themes that represented the experiences and perspectives of participants. Ethics approval was granted by one University Ethics committee. demographic data suggests that within south-west England, there is a clear ageing population and few in possession of a doctorate within midwifery. The six identified sub-themes represented in the data describe challenges and tensions that midwifery academics experienced in their efforts to attract new recruits and retain those in post in a highly changing educational environment which demands more from a contracting workforce. there remain some serious challenges facing midwifery educators in sustaining the future education workforce, which if unresolved may jeopardise standards of education and quality of care women receive. Active succession planning and more radical approaches that embrace flexible careers will enable educational workforce to be sustained and by a clinically credible and scholarly orientated midwifery workforce. Copyright �

Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2009-03-01

Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

Caught in Uncertain Futures, Now: A Reflexive Moment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Reynaldo, III

2016-01-01

This reflexive vignette reveals the emotional risks of ethnographic work by a Chicano researcher, educator, and advocate doing work in the Texas-Mexico Borderlands, caught at the intersection of vulnerable Latina/o youth and their possible futures. Data in this creative piece are derived from field notes of one classroom observation from an…

University Continuing Education: Strategies for an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baskett, H. K.; Hamilton, A. Bruce

Some of the most common predictions relating to university continuing education units provide a base from which a discussion of future strategies can begin. These include the following: the Big Generation (i.e., baby boomers) is here; knowledge, not products, is the major focus of society; competition for the traditional university continuing…

Postdeployment behavioral health screening: face-to-face versus virtual behavioral health interviews.

PubMed

Sipos, Maurice L; Foran, Heather M; Crane, Maria L; Wood, Michael D; Wright, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Virtual behavioral health (VBH) services are used frequently to address the high demand for behavioral health (BH) services in the military. Few studies have investigated the relationship between the use of VBH services and BH outcomes or preferences for the use of VBH technologies. In this article, we evaluated BH interviews conducted via video teleconferencing (VTC) or face-to-face in terms of BH symptoms, satisfaction rates, stigma, barriers to care, and preferences for future use of BH care. Soldiers (n = 307) from the headquarters element of an operational unit were surveyed 4 months following a 12-month deployment to Iraq. There were no significant differences in satisfaction rates based on interview modality, but significantly more soldiers preferred face-to-face interviews over VTC interviews in the future. Soldiers who preferred face-to-face interviews also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression symptoms than those who preferred VTC interviews. No significant age differences were found in terms of interview modality satisfaction or preference. Soldiers with greater deployment experience were more likely to report that they would not like using VTC if seeking BH care in the future than soldiers with less deployment experience. These findings highlight the importance of promoting choice in type of BH interview modality.

Teacher Education and Posthumanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howlett, Caitlin

2018-01-01

Education faces a tenuous future, straddling a growing divide between a no-longer-relevant past and an uncertain future, a future that calls into question the future of humanity altogether. In the face of such a future, posthumanism stands as a reminder that the divides we make in education are unstable, that things could and likely will be…

Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

Factors That Will Determine Future Utilization Trends in Diagnostic Imaging.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Rao, Vijay M

2016-08-01

Radiologists are facing uncertain times, and in this kind of environment, strategic planning is important but difficult. In particular, it is hard to know whether future imaging volume will increase, decrease, or stay approximately the same. In this article, the authors discuss a variety of factors that will influence imaging use in the coming years. Some factors will tend to increase imaging use, whereas others will tend to curtail it. Some of these factors will affect individual groups differently, depending on their locations and the circumstances of their practices. Radiologists would be well advised to become aware of and consider these factors as they go about their planning processes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

How Well Do Computer-Generated Faces Tap Face Expertise?

PubMed

Crookes, Kate; Ewing, Louise; Gildenhuys, Ju-Dith; Kloth, Nadine; Hayward, William G; Oxner, Matt; Pond, Stephen; Rhodes, Gillian

2015-01-01

The use of computer-generated (CG) stimuli in face processing research is proliferating due to the ease with which faces can be generated, standardised and manipulated. However there has been surprisingly little research into whether CG faces are processed in the same way as photographs of real faces. The present study assessed how well CG faces tap face identity expertise by investigating whether two indicators of face expertise are reduced for CG faces when compared to face photographs. These indicators were accuracy for identification of own-race faces and the other-race effect (ORE)-the well-established finding that own-race faces are recognised more accurately than other-race faces. In Experiment 1 Caucasian and Asian participants completed a recognition memory task for own- and other-race real and CG faces. Overall accuracy for own-race faces was dramatically reduced for CG compared to real faces and the ORE was significantly and substantially attenuated for CG faces. Experiment 2 investigated perceptual discrimination for own- and other-race real and CG faces with Caucasian and Asian participants. Here again, accuracy for own-race faces was significantly reduced for CG compared to real faces. However the ORE was not affected by format. Together these results signal that CG faces of the type tested here do not fully tap face expertise. Technological advancement may, in the future, produce CG faces that are equivalent to real photographs. Until then caution is advised when interpreting results obtained using CG faces.

Characterizing traffic under uncertain disruptions : an experimental approach.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study long-term traffic patterns under uncertain disruptions using : data collected from human subjects who simultaneously make route choices in controlled PC-based : laboratory experiments. Uncertain disruptions t...

Developing health care workforces for uncertain futures.

PubMed

Gorman, Des

2015-04-01

Conventional approaches to health care workforce planning are notoriously unreliable. In part, this is due to the uncertainty of the future health milieu. An approach to health care workforce planning that accommodates this uncertainty is not only possible but can also generate intelligence on which planning and consequent development can be reliably based. Drawing on the experience of Health Workforce New Zealand, the author outlines some of the approaches being used in New Zealand. Instead of relying simply on health care data, which provides a picture of current circumstances in health systems, the author argues that workforce planning should rely on health care intelligence--looking beyond the numbers to build understanding of how to achieve desired outcomes. As health care systems throughout the world respond to challenges such as reform efforts, aging populations of patients and providers, and maldistribution of physicians (to name a few), New Zealand's experience may offer a model for rethinking workforce planning to truly meet health care needs.

Searching for Interference Effects in Learning New Face-Name Associations

PubMed Central

James, Lori E.; Tauber, Sarah K.; McMahan, Ethan A.; Oberle, Shalyn; Martinez, Ashley P.; Fogler, Kethera A.

2012-01-01

In 3 experiments, we attempted to increase interference using experimental manipulations in a face-name learning paradigm. All experiments included young and older adult participants because aging is associated with increases in both susceptibility to interference and difficulty in learning face-name associations. None of the experiments produced interference for either age group: The inclusion of confusable (i.e., ambiguous) names and occupations, having to learn an additional piece of information in association with each face, and requiring participants to guess when uncertain all failed to negatively impact name learning. Interference does not appear to be the critical mechanism underlying the difficulty of learning proper names, and it cannot account for older adults’ disproportionate decline in name-learning ability. PMID:22292565

Neural basis of uncertain cue processing in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Zhang, Meng; Ma, Chao; Luo, Yanyan; Li, Ji; Li, Qingwei; Liu, Yijun; Ding, Cody; Qiu, Jiang

2016-02-19

Individuals with high trait anxiety form a non-clinical group with a predisposition for an anxiety-related bias in emotional and cognitive processing that is considered by some to be a prerequisite for psychiatric disorders. Anxious individuals tend to experience more worry under uncertainty, and processing uncertain information is an important, but often overlooked factor in anxiety. So, we decided to explore the brain correlates of processing uncertain information in individuals with high trait anxiety using the learn-test paradigm. Behaviorally, the percentages on memory test and the likelihood ratios of identifying novel stimuli under uncertainty were similar to the certain fear condition, but different from the certain neutral condition. The brain results showed that the visual cortex, bilateral fusiform gyrus, and right parahippocampal gyrus were active during the processing of uncertain cues. Moreover, we found that trait anxiety was positively correlated with the BOLD signal of the right parahippocampal gyrus during the processing of uncertain cues. No significant results were found in the amygdala during uncertain cue processing. These results suggest that memory retrieval is associated with uncertain cue processing, which is underpinned by over-activation of the right parahippocampal gyrus, in individuals with high trait anxiety.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

A virtual observatory in a real world: building capacity for an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, Gordon; Buytaert, Wouter; Emmett, Bridget; Freer, Jim; Gurney, Robert; Haygarth, Phil; McDonald, Adrian; Rees, Gwyn; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

2010-05-01

Environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access. To support such a challenge requires new tools and new approaches. The VO is a new initiative from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for these new tools and approaches. The VO is at an early stage and we first evaluate the role of existing ‘observatories' in the UK and elsewhere both to learn good practice (and just as valuable - errors) and to define boundaries. A series of exemplar ‘big catchment science questions' are posed - distinguishing between science and society positions - and the prospects for their solution are assessed. The VO vision of being driven by these questions is outlined as are the seven key ambitions namely: i. being driven by the need to contribute to the solution of major environmental issues that impinge on, or link to, catchment science ii. having the flexibility and adaptability to address future problems not yet defined or fully clarified iii. being able to communicate issues and solutions to a range of audiences iv. supporting easy access by a variety of users v. drawing meaningful information from data and models and identifying the constraints on application in terms of errors, uncertainties, etc vi. adding value and cost effectiveness to current investigations by supporting transfer and scale adjustment thus limiting the repetition of expensive field monitoring addressing essentially the same issues in varying locations vii. promoting effective interfacing of robust science with a variety of end users by using terminology or measures familiar to the user (or required by regulation), including financial and carbon accounting, whole life or fixed period costing, risk as probability or as disability adjusted life years

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Bakker, Alexander M R; Wong, Tony E; Ruckert, Kelsey L; Keller, Klaus

2017-06-20

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices . Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Successful Decoding of Famous Faces in the Fusiform Face Area

PubMed Central

Axelrod, Vadim; Yovel, Galit

2015-01-01

What are the neural mechanisms of face recognition? It is believed that the network of face-selective areas, which spans the occipital, temporal, and frontal cortices, is important in face recognition. A number of previous studies indeed reported that face identity could be discriminated based on patterns of multivoxel activity in the fusiform face area and the anterior temporal lobe. However, given the difficulty in localizing the face-selective area in the anterior temporal lobe, its role in face recognition is still unknown. Furthermore, previous studies limited their analysis to occipito-temporal regions without testing identity decoding in more anterior face-selective regions, such as the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. In the current high-resolution functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study, we systematically examined the decoding of the identity of famous faces in the temporo-frontal network of face-selective and adjacent non-face-selective regions. A special focus has been put on the face-area in the anterior temporal lobe, which was reliably localized using an optimized scanning protocol. We found that face-identity could be discriminated above chance level only in the fusiform face area. Our results corroborate the role of the fusiform face area in face recognition. Future studies are needed to further explore the role of the more recently discovered anterior face-selective areas in face recognition. PMID:25714434

Successful decoding of famous faces in the fusiform face area.

PubMed

Axelrod, Vadim; Yovel, Galit

2015-01-01

What are the neural mechanisms of face recognition? It is believed that the network of face-selective areas, which spans the occipital, temporal, and frontal cortices, is important in face recognition. A number of previous studies indeed reported that face identity could be discriminated based on patterns of multivoxel activity in the fusiform face area and the anterior temporal lobe. However, given the difficulty in localizing the face-selective area in the anterior temporal lobe, its role in face recognition is still unknown. Furthermore, previous studies limited their analysis to occipito-temporal regions without testing identity decoding in more anterior face-selective regions, such as the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. In the current high-resolution functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study, we systematically examined the decoding of the identity of famous faces in the temporo-frontal network of face-selective and adjacent non-face-selective regions. A special focus has been put on the face-area in the anterior temporal lobe, which was reliably localized using an optimized scanning protocol. We found that face-identity could be discriminated above chance level only in the fusiform face area. Our results corroborate the role of the fusiform face area in face recognition. Future studies are needed to further explore the role of the more recently discovered anterior face-selective areas in face recognition.

Future Issues Facing Administrators in Pharmaceutical Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fink, Joseph L., III

1986-01-01

Issues facing pharmaceutical education include the need to keep up with advancing technology, the need to keep faculty from overemphasizing technology to the detriment of other responsibilities, motivating and rewarding faculty, dealing with loss of faculty productivity, and part-time faculty. (MSE)

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Does intolerance of uncertainty predict anticipatory startle responses to uncertain threat?

PubMed

Nelson, Brady D; Shankman, Stewart A

2011-08-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed to be an important maintaining factor in several anxiety disorders, including generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and social phobia. While IU has been shown to predict subjective ratings and decision-making during uncertain/ambiguous situations, few studies have examined whether IU also predicts emotional responding to uncertain threat. The present study examined whether IU predicted aversive responding (startle and subjective ratings) during the anticipation of temporally uncertain shocks. Sixty-nine participants completed three experimental conditions during which they received: no shocks, temporally certain/predictable shocks, and temporally uncertain shocks. Results indicated that IU was negatively associated with startle during the uncertain threat condition in that those with higher IU had a smaller startle response. IU was also only related to startle during the uncertain (and not the certain/predictable) threat condition, suggesting that it was not predictive of general aversive responding, but specific to responses to uncertain aversiveness. Perceived control over anxiety-related events mediated the relation between IU and startle to uncertain threat, such that high IU led to lowered perceived control, which in turn led to a smaller startle response. We discuss several potential explanations for these findings, including the inhibitory qualities of IU. Overall, our results suggest that IU is associated with attenuated aversive responding to uncertain threat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Governing through time: preparing for future threats to health and security.

PubMed

Samimian-Darash, Limor

2011-09-01

During preparations for the Second Gulf War, Israel considered universal smallpox vaccination. In doing so, it faced a problem: how to legitimise carrying out a security action against an uncertain future danger (smallpox pandemic), when this action carried specific, known risks (vaccine complications). To solve this problem, the Israeli preparedness system created a new domain through which the security action could reach its goal with minimum risk: first responders (a group of medical personnel and security forces). First-responder vaccination represents a shift in the form of 'securing health' and in the governmental technology applied to this goal, in which past, present, and future occurrences are governed to enable the execution of a security action. Through this practice, risks are not located in the present or in the future but in a 'shared' temporal space and thus can be seen as existing simultaneously. Preparedness for emerging future biological events, then, involves more than questioning how the future is contingent on the present and how the present is contingent on the future's perception; it also recognises the need for a new time positioning that allows operating on both present and future risks simultaneously. Governing these risks, then, means governing through time. © 2011 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Long-term care over an uncertain future: what can current retirees expect?

PubMed

Kemper, Peter; Komisar, Harriet L; Alecxih, Lisa

The leading edge of the baby boom generation is nearing retirement and facing uncertainty about its need for long-term care (LTC). Using a microsimulation model, this analysis projected that people currently turning age 65 will need LTC for three years on average. An important share of needed care will be covered by public programs and some private insurance, but much of the care will be an uninsured private responsibility of individuals and their families--a responsibility that will be distributed unequally. While over a third of those now turning 65 are projected to never receive family care, three out of 10 will rely on family care for more than two years. Similarly, half of people turning 65 will have no private out-of-pocket expenditures for LTC, while more than one in 20 are projected to spend $100,000 or more of their own money (in present discounted value). Policy debate that focuses only on income security and acute care--and the corresponding Social Security and Medicare programs--misses the third, largely private, risk that retirees face: that of needing LTC.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Future scenarios can be developed through a combination of modifications to the land-cover/use maps used to parameterize hydr...

Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries. PMID:24737978

Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

PubMed

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

Robust control for uncertain structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Joel; Athans, Michael

1991-01-01

Viewgraphs on robust control for uncertain structures are presented. Topics covered include: robust linear quadratic regulator (RLQR) formulas; mismatched LQR design; RLQR design; interpretations of RLQR design; disturbance rejection; and performance comparisons: RLQR vs. mismatched LQR.

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information.

PubMed

D'Evelyn, Sean T; Tarui, Nori; Burnett, Kimberly; Roumasset, James A

2008-12-01

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species' population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit--the value of information to reduce uncertainty--is likely to be quite large.

Mystic mountain: an educational alternative futures wildland planning game

Treesearch

Edward C. Thor; James L. Creighton

1978-01-01

Alternative futures planning is a generic name for a number of planning approaches which recognize that the future is uncertain. There is not one future, preordained and universally known, but rather a variety of possible futures, any one of which may occur. Mystic Mountain is an educational game which teaches wildland planners and managers important concepts in...

Facing the future: Memory as an evolved system for planning future acts

PubMed Central

Klein, Stanley B.; Robertson, Theresa E.; Delton, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

All organisms capable of long-term memory are necessarily oriented toward the future. We propose that one of the most important adaptive functions of long-term episodic memory is to store information about the past in the service of planning for the personal future. Because a system should have especially efficient performance when engaged in a task that makes maximal use of its evolved machinery, we predicted that future-oriented planning would result in especially good memory relative to other memory tasks. We tested recall performance of a word list, using encoding tasks with different temporal perspectives (e.g., past, future) but a similar context. Consistent with our hypothesis, future-oriented encoding produced superior recall. We discuss these findings in light of their implications for the thesis that memory evolved to enable its possessor to anticipate and respond to future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty. PMID:19966234

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

MAGDM linear-programming models with distinct uncertain preference structures.

PubMed

Xu, Zeshui S; Chen, Jian

2008-10-01

Group decision making with preference information on alternatives is an interesting and important research topic which has been receiving more and more attention in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate multiple-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with distinct uncertain preference structures. We develop some linear-programming models for dealing with the MAGDM problems, where the information about attribute weights is incomplete, and the decision makers have their preferences on alternatives. The provided preference information can be represented in the following three distinct uncertain preference structures: 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first establish some linear-programming models based on decision matrix and each of the distinct uncertain preference structures and, then, develop some linear-programming models to integrate all three structures of subjective uncertain preference information provided by the decision makers and the objective information depicted in the decision matrix. Furthermore, we propose a simple and straightforward approach in ranking and selecting the given alternatives. It is worth pointing out that the developed models can also be used to deal with the situations where the three distinct uncertain preference structures are reduced to the traditional ones, i.e., utility values, fuzzy preference relations, and multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we use a practical example to illustrate in detail the calculation process of the developed approach.

Uncertain relational reasoning in the parietal cortex.

PubMed

Ragni, Marco; Franzmeier, Imke; Maier, Simon; Knauff, Markus

2016-04-01

The psychology of reasoning is currently transitioning from the study of deductive inferences under certainty to inferences that have degrees of uncertainty in both their premises and conclusions; however, only a few studies have explored the cortical basis of uncertain reasoning. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), we show that areas in the right superior parietal lobe (rSPL) are necessary for solving spatial relational reasoning problems under conditions of uncertainty. Twenty-four participants had to decide whether a single presented order of objects agreed with a given set of indeterminate premises that could be interpreted in more than one way. During the presentation of the order, 10-Hz TMS was applied over the rSPL or a sham control site. Right SPL TMS during the inference phase disrupted performance in uncertain relational reasoning. Moreover, we found differences in the error rates between preferred mental models, alternative models, and inconsistent models. Our results suggest that different mechanisms are involved when people reason spatially and evaluate different kinds of uncertain conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Smith, Woollcott; Burgman, Mark; Rout, Tracy; Wintle, Brendan; Roberts, David

2012-02-01

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

The time course of face processing: startle eyeblink response modulation by face gender and expression.

PubMed

Duval, Elizabeth R; Lovelace, Christopher T; Aarant, Justin; Filion, Diane L

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of both facial expression and face gender on startle eyeblink response patterns at varying lead intervals (300, 800, and 3500ms) indicative of attentional and emotional processes. We aimed to determine whether responses to affective faces map onto the Defense Cascade Model (Lang et al., 1997) to better understand the stages of processing during affective face viewing. At 300ms, there was an interaction between face expression and face gender with female happy and neutral faces and male angry faces producing inhibited startle. At 3500ms, there was a trend for facilitated startle during angry compared to neutral faces. These findings suggest that affective expressions are perceived differently in male and female faces, especially at short lead intervals. Future studies investigating face processing should take both face gender and expression into account. © 2013.

Robust control synthesis for uncertain dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byun, Kuk-Whan; Wie, Bong; Sunkel, John

1989-01-01

This paper presents robust control synthesis techniques for uncertain dynamical systems subject to structured parameter perturbation. Both QFT (quantitative feedback theory) and H-infinity control synthesis techniques are investigated. Although most H-infinity-related control techniques are not concerned with the structured parameter perturbation, a new way of incorporating the parameter uncertainty in the robust H-infinity control design is presented. A generic model of uncertain dynamical systems is used to illustrate the design methodologies investigated in this paper. It is shown that, for a certain noncolocated structural control problem, use of both techniques results in nonminimum phase compensation.

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reading the Mind in the Eyes or Reading between the Lines? Theory of Mind Predicts Collective Intelligence Equally Well Online and Face-To-Face

PubMed Central

Engel, David; Woolley, Anita Williams; Jing, Lisa X.; Chabris, Christopher F.; Malone, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called “collective intelligence”) predicted a group’s performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members’ ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called “Theory of Mind” or “ToM”). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to “read” the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the “Reading the Mind in the Eyes” test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states. PMID:25514387

Reading the Mind in the Eyes or reading between the lines? Theory of Mind predicts collective intelligence equally well online and face-to-face.

PubMed

Engel, David; Woolley, Anita Williams; Jing, Lisa X; Chabris, Christopher F; Malone, Thomas W

2014-01-01

Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called "collective intelligence") predicted a group's performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members' ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called "Theory of Mind" or "ToM"). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to "read" the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the "Reading the Mind in the Eyes" test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states.

Stable face representations

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Rob; Burton, A. Mike

2011-01-01

Photographs are often used to establish the identity of an individual or to verify that they are who they claim to be. Yet, recent research shows that it is surprisingly difficult to match a photo to a face. Neither humans nor machines can perform this task reliably. Although human perceivers are good at matching familiar faces, performance with unfamiliar faces is strikingly poor. The situation is no better for automatic face recognition systems. In practical settings, automatic systems have been consistently disappointing. In this review, we suggest that failure to distinguish between familiar and unfamiliar face processing has led to unrealistic expectations about face identification in applied settings. We also argue that a photograph is not necessarily a reliable indicator of facial appearance, and develop our proposal that summary statistics can provide more stable face representations. In particular, we show that image averaging stabilizes facial appearance by diluting aspects of the image that vary between snapshots of the same person. We review evidence that the resulting images can outperform photographs in both behavioural experiments and computer simulations, and outline promising directions for future research. PMID:21536553

Current Challenges Facing the Future of Secondary Education and Transition Services for Youth with Disabilities in the United States. Discussion Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Secondary Education and Transition (NCSET), University of Minnesota, 2004

2004-01-01

This paper is intended to promote discussion among professionals, policymakers, employers, parents, and individuals with disabilities concerning current and future challenges facing secondary education and transition services nationally. The issues identified and discussed should not, however, be viewed as inclusive of the full range of possible…

On the facilitative effects of face motion on face recognition and its development

PubMed Central

Xiao, Naiqi G.; Perrotta, Steve; Quinn, Paul C.; Wang, Zhe; Sun, Yu-Hao P.; Lee, Kang

2014-01-01

For the past century, researchers have extensively studied human face processing and its development. These studies have advanced our understanding of not only face processing, but also visual processing in general. However, most of what we know about face processing was investigated using static face images as stimuli. Therefore, an important question arises: to what extent does our understanding of static face processing generalize to face processing in real-life contexts in which faces are mostly moving? The present article addresses this question by examining recent studies on moving face processing to uncover the influence of facial movements on face processing and its development. First, we describe evidence on the facilitative effects of facial movements on face recognition and two related theoretical hypotheses: the supplementary information hypothesis and the representation enhancement hypothesis. We then highlight several recent studies suggesting that facial movements optimize face processing by activating specific face processing strategies that accommodate to task requirements. Lastly, we review the influence of facial movements on the development of face processing in the first year of life. We focus on infants' sensitivity to facial movements and explore the facilitative effects of facial movements on infants' face recognition performance. We conclude by outlining several future directions to investigate moving face processing and emphasize the importance of including dynamic aspects of facial information to further understand face processing in real-life contexts. PMID:25009517

Marine biodiversity–ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures

PubMed Central

Bulling, Mark T.; Hicks, Natalie; Murray, Leigh; Paterson, David M.; Raffaelli, Dave; White, Piran C. L.; Solan, Martin

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH4-N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO4-P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty. PMID:20513718

Marine biodiversity-ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures.

PubMed

Bulling, Mark T; Hicks, Natalie; Murray, Leigh; Paterson, David M; Raffaelli, Dave; White, Piran C L; Solan, Martin

2010-07-12

Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. The recognition that these ecosystems provide services that are essential for human well-being has led to a major interest in the forms of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. However, there is a lack of studies examining the impact of climate change on these relationships and it remains unclear how multiple climatic drivers may affect levels of ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the roles of two important climate change variables, temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, on the relationship between invertebrate species richness and nutrient release in a model benthic estuarine system. We found a positive relationship between invertebrate species richness and the levels of release of NH(4)-N into the water column, but no effect of species richness on the release of PO(4)-P. Higher temperatures and greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide had a negative impact on nutrient release. Importantly, we found significant interactions between the climate variables, indicating that reliably predicting the effects of future climate change will not be straightforward as multiple drivers are unlikely to have purely additive effects, resulting in increased levels of uncertainty.

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

PubMed

Bruno, John G

2015-04-16

Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

Challenges and issues facing the future of nursing education: implications for ethnic minority faculty and students.

PubMed

Davis, Sheila P; Davis, Danyetta D

2010-01-01

Current trends in higher education in the United States demand that nursing take stock of how it is prepared or being prepared to face challenges and issues impacting on its future. The intense effort made to attract students to pursue advanced training in science and engineering in the United States pales in comparison to the numbers of science and engineering majors produced yearly in international schools. As a result, more and more jobs are being outsourced to international markets. Could international outsourcing become a method of nursing education? Authors submit that to remain competitive, the nursing profession must attract a younger cohort of technologically savvy students and faculty reflective of the growing diverse population in the United States. Additionally, nursing programs in research universities face even more daunting challenges as it relates to mandates for funded research programs of educational units. This article offers suggestions and recommendations for nursing programs in higher education institutions on ways to attract and retain ethnic minorities and of how to harness the power of research to address burgeoning societal health challenges.

Uncertain Times 2012: Afterschool Programs Still Struggling in Today's Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Afterschool Alliance, 2012

2012-01-01

"Uncertain Times 2012," conducted by the Afterschool Alliance between April 25 and June 8, 2012, assesses the impact of economic conditions on afterschool programs. While many studies have evaluated the impact of programs, "Uncertain Times" is the only research to examine the fiscal health of afterschool programs and their…

Plasma facing materials and components for future fusion devices—development, characterization and performance under fusion specific loading conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linke, J.

2006-04-01

The plasma exposed components in existing and future fusion devices are strongly affected by the plasma material interaction processes. These mechanisms have a strong influence on the plasma performance; in addition they have major impact on the lifetime of the plasma facing armour and the joining interface between the plasma facing material (PFM) and the heat sink. Besides physical and chemical sputtering processes, high heat quasi-stationary fluxes during normal and intense thermal transients are of serious concern for the engineers who develop reliable wall components. In addition, the material and component degradation due to intense fluxes of energetic neutrons is another critical issue in D-T-burning fusion devices which requires extensive R&D. This paper presents an overview on the materials development and joining, the testing of PFMs and components, and the analysis of the neutron irradiation induced degradation.

An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

PubMed Central

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. PMID:25089292

An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

PubMed

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Communicating Uncertain News in Cancer Consultations.

PubMed

Alby, Francesca; Zucchermaglio, Cristina; Fatigante, Marilena

2017-12-01

In cancer communication, most of the literature is in the realm of delivering bad news while much less attention has been given to the communication of uncertain news around the diagnosis and the possible outcomes of the illness. Drawing on video-recorded cancer consultations collected in two Italian hospitals, this article analyzes three communication practices used by oncologists to interactionally manage the uncertainty during the visit: alternating between uncertain bad news and certain good news, anticipating scenarios, and guessing test results. Both diagnostic and personal uncertainties are not hidden to the patient, yet they are reduced through these practices. Such communication practices are present in 32 % of the visits in the data set, indicating that the interactional management of uncertainty is a relevant phenomenon in oncological encounters. Further studies are needed to improve both its understanding and its teaching.

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

The surprisingly high human efficiency at learning to recognize faces

PubMed Central

Peterson, Matthew F.; Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2009-01-01

We investigated the ability of humans to optimize face recognition performance through rapid learning of individual relevant features. We created artificial faces with discriminating visual information heavily concentrated in single features (nose, eyes, chin or mouth). In each of 2500 learning blocks a feature was randomly selected and retained over the course of four trials, during which observers identified randomly sampled, noisy face images. Observers learned the discriminating feature through indirect feedback, leading to large performance gains. Performance was compared to a learning Bayesian ideal observer, resulting in unexpectedly high learning compared to previous studies with simpler stimuli. We explore various explanations and conclude that the higher learning measured with faces cannot be driven by adaptive eye movement strategies but can be mostly accounted for by suboptimalities in human face discrimination when observers are uncertain about the discriminating feature. We show that an initial bias of humans to use specific features to perform the task even though they are informed that each of four features is equally likely to be the discriminatory feature would lead to seemingly supra-optimal learning. We also examine the possibility of inefficient human integration of visual information across the spatially distributed facial features. Together, the results suggest that humans can show large performance improvement effects in discriminating faces as they learn to identify the feature containing the discriminatory information. PMID:19000918

Millennial Teachers and Multiculturalism: Considerations for Teaching in Uncertain Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallman, Heidi L.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the intersection of generational traits of millennial teachers, multiculturalism and teaching in an era of Uncertain Times. Uncertain Times, as a framework for the paper, characterizes changing aspects of the current era in which we live, such as the rise of the internet and interconnectivity, globalization and…

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

2018-05-01

Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.

Face-Likeness and Image Variability Drive Responses in Human Face-Selective Ventral Regions

PubMed Central

Davidenko, Nicolas; Remus, David A.; Grill-Spector, Kalanit

2012-01-01

The human ventral visual stream contains regions that respond selectively to faces over objects. However, it is unknown whether responses in these regions correlate with how face-like stimuli appear. Here, we use parameterized face silhouettes to manipulate the perceived face-likeness of stimuli and measure responses in face- and object-selective ventral regions with high-resolution fMRI. We first use “concentric hyper-sphere” (CH) sampling to define face silhouettes at different distances from the prototype face. Observers rate the stimuli as progressively more face-like the closer they are to the prototype face. Paradoxically, responses in both face- and object-selective regions decrease as face-likeness ratings increase. Because CH sampling produces blocks of stimuli whose variability is negatively correlated with face-likeness, this effect may be driven by more adaptation during high face-likeness (low-variability) blocks than during low face-likeness (high-variability) blocks. We tested this hypothesis by measuring responses to matched-variability (MV) blocks of stimuli with similar face-likeness ratings as with CH sampling. Critically, under MV sampling, we find a face-specific effect: responses in face-selective regions gradually increase with perceived face-likeness, but responses in object-selective regions are unchanged. Our studies provide novel evidence that face-selective responses correlate with the perceived face-likeness of stimuli, but this effect is revealed only when image variability is controlled across conditions. Finally, our data show that variability is a powerful factor that drives responses across the ventral stream. This indicates that controlling variability across conditions should be a critical tool in future neuroimaging studies of face and object representation. PMID:21823208

The role of uncertain self-esteem in self-handicapping.

PubMed

Harris, R N; Snyder, C R

1986-08-01

In this article, the hypothesis that some individuals confronted with an intellectual evaluation use a lack of preparation as a "self-handicapping" strategy (Jones & Berglas, 1978) was studied. Sex and both level and certainty of self-esteem were examined in regard to the self-handicapping strategy of lack of effort. Subjects were 54 men and 54 women, certain and uncertain, high and low self-esteem college students, who believed that the experiment was designed to update local norms for a nonverbal test of intellectual ability. After subjects' level of state anxiety was assessed, they were instructed in the benefits of practicing for the evaluation. Subsequently, subjects' state anxiety and preparatory efforts (the primary dependent variables) were measured. Subjects' practice, self-protective attributions, and related affect supported a self-handicapping interpretation for uncertain males but not for uncertain females.

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Shellfish Face Uncertain Future in High CO2 World: Influence of Acidification on Oyster Larvae Calcification and Growth in Estuaries

PubMed Central

Miller, A. Whitman; Reynolds, Amanda C.; Sobrino, Cristina; Riedel, Gerhardt F.

2009-01-01

Background Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. Methodology/Principal Findings To address CO2-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis) were grown in estuarine water under four pCO2 regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 µatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO2 manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO2 in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21st century pCO2 treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. Conclusions and Significance Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO2 and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying biota, will be species-specific and

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems. Part 1: Theoretical Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-07

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework Fernando Paganini * John Doyle 1 December 7, 1994 Abst rac t This paper...Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...model and a number of constraints relevant to the analysis problem under consideration. In Part I of this paper we propose a theoretical framework which

The face, the future, and dental practice: how research in craniofacial biology will influence patient care.

PubMed

Townsend, G C; Brook, A H

2014-06-01

It has been a privilege to assemble a group of Australian and international researchers to produce a special issue of the Australian Dental Journal that reflects the cutting edge of research in different aspects of craniofacial biology, and also considers how these advances will influence future education and practice within dentistry. The aim of this special issue is to provide a collection of concept papers and critical reviews on key topics that cover both fundamental and applied research in craniofacial biology and to consider the clinical implications. To do this, four questions have been addressed that lead to the four sections of this issue. These are: How have we come to the present exciting position in craniofacial biology with breakthroughs over the past 50 years? What are current fundamental research topics that are helping us to understand more about craniofacial and general development, possibly leading to future clinical developments? What are the current applied research topics that will influence future clinical practice? Looking forward, what new developments in craniofacial biology may come about that will change the face of dental education and practice? The refereed papers in this special issue are grouped into the four sections that seek to respond to these demanding questions. © 2014 Australian Dental Association.

Japan-U.S. Joint Ventures in Higher Education: Language Education in an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Thomas

1991-01-01

Examines Japanese-U.S. joint venture language or U.S.-style education programs in Japan. These programs offer language and cultural education classes for those interested in English and for students who have failed in the Japanese education system. Problems facing these programs and the need to explore new, English-language education markets are…

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenlin; Li, Chong; Song, Heshan

2016-11-01

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior is researched. The identification laws of unknown parameters in state equations of network nodes, the adaptive laws of configuration matrix elements and outer coupling strengths are determined based on Lyapunov theorem. The conditions of realizing synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks are discussed and obtained. Further, Jaynes-Cummings model in physics are taken as the nodes of two networks and simulation results show that the synchronization performance between networks is very stable.

Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karolak, Eric

2011-01-01

Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

Possible world based consistency learning model for clustering and classifying uncertain data.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Zhang, Xianchao; Zhang, Xiaotong

2018-06-01

Possible world has shown to be effective for handling various types of data uncertainty in uncertain data management. However, few uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms are proposed based on possible world. Moreover, existing possible world based algorithms suffer from the following issues: (1) they deal with each possible world independently and ignore the consistency principle across different possible worlds; (2) they require the extra post-processing procedure to obtain the final result, which causes that the effectiveness highly relies on the post-processing method and the efficiency is also not very good. In this paper, we propose a novel possible world based consistency learning model for uncertain data, which can be extended both for clustering and classifying uncertain data. This model utilizes the consistency principle to learn a consensus affinity matrix for uncertain data, which can make full use of the information across different possible worlds and then improve the clustering and classification performance. Meanwhile, this model imposes a new rank constraint on the Laplacian matrix of the consensus affinity matrix, thereby ensuring that the number of connected components in the consensus affinity matrix is exactly equal to the number of classes. This also means that the clustering and classification results can be directly obtained without any post-processing procedure. Furthermore, for the clustering and classification tasks, we respectively derive the efficient optimization methods to solve the proposed model. Experimental results on real benchmark datasets and real world uncertain datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms in effectiveness and performs competitively in efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

The uncertain response in humans and animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. D.; Shields, W. E.; Schull, J.; Washburn, D. A.; Rumbaugh, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1997-01-01

There has been no comparative psychological study of uncertainty processes. Accordingly, the present experiments asked whether animals, like humans, escape adaptively when they are uncertain. Human and animal observers were given two primary responses in a visual discrimination task, and the opportunity to escape from some trials into easier ones. In one psychophysical task (using a threshold paradigm), humans escaped selectively the difficult trials that left them uncertain of the stimulus. Two rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) also showed this pattern. In a second psychophysical task (using the method of constant stimuli), some humans showed this pattern but one escaped infrequently and nonoptimally. Monkeys showed equivalent individual differences. The data suggest that escapes by humans and monkeys are interesting cognitive analogs and may reflect controlled decisional processes prompted by the perceptual ambiguity at threshold.

Emotional facial expressions differentially influence predictions and performance for face recognition.

PubMed

Nomi, Jason S; Rhodes, Matthew G; Cleary, Anne M

2013-01-01

This study examined how participants' predictions of future memory performance are influenced by emotional facial expressions. Participants made judgements of learning (JOLs) predicting the likelihood that they would correctly identify a face displaying a happy, angry, or neutral emotional expression in a future two-alternative forced-choice recognition test of identity (i.e., recognition that a person's face was seen before). JOLs were higher for studied faces with happy and angry emotional expressions than for neutral faces. However, neutral test faces with studied neutral expressions had significantly higher identity recognition rates than neutral test faces studied with happy or angry expressions. Thus, these data are the first to demonstrate that people believe happy and angry emotional expressions will lead to better identity recognition in the future relative to neutral expressions. This occurred despite the fact that neutral expressions elicited better identity recognition than happy and angry expressions. These findings contribute to the growing literature examining the interaction of cognition and emotion.

"A Vital Role in Uncertain Times"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunt, Melanie

2009-01-01

The adult learning and skills sector is a diverse world, encompassing adult and community learning, apprenticeships, Train to Gain, and contracted employment programmes. The learning and skills sector plays a vital role in uncertain times by giving greater opportunities for social mobility, for example by supporting progression to further and…

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs

Issues facing the future health care workforce: the importance of demand modelling.

PubMed

Segal, Leonie; Bolton, Tom

2009-05-07

This article examines issues facing the future health care workforce in Australia in light of factors such as population ageing. It has been argued that population ageing in Australia is affecting the supply of health care professionals as the health workforce ages and at the same time increasing the demand for health care services and the health care workforce.However, the picture is not that simple. The health workforce market in Australia is influenced by a wide range of factors; on the demand side by increasing levels of income and wealth, emergence of new technologies, changing disease profiles, changing public health priorities and a focus on the prevention of chronic disease. While a strong correlation is observed between age and use of health care services (and thus health care workforce), this is mediated through illness, as typified by the consistent finding of higher health care costs in the months preceding death.On the supply side, the health workforce is highly influenced by policy drivers; both national policies (eg funded education and training places) and local policies (eg work place-based retention policies). Population ageing and ageing of the health workforce is not a dominant influence. In recent years, the Australian health care workforce has grown in excess of overall workforce growth, despite an ageing health workforce. We also note that current levels of workforce supply compare favourably with many OECD countries. The future of the health workforce will be shaped by a number of complex interacting factors.Market failure, a key feature of the market for health care services which is also observed in the health care labour market - means that imbalances between demand and supply can develop and persist, and suggests a role for health workforce planning to improve efficiency in the health services sector. Current approaches to health workforce planning, especially on the demand side, tend to be highly simplistic. These include historical

Clinicians' perspectives of therapeutic alliance in face-to-face and telepractice speech-language pathology sessions.

PubMed

Freckmann, Anneka; Hines, Monique; Lincoln, Michelle

2017-06-01

To investigate the face validity of a measure of therapeutic alliance for paediatric speech-language pathology and to determine whether a difference exists in therapeutic alliance reported by speech-language pathologists (SLPs) conducting face-to-face sessions, compared with telepractice SLPs or in their ratings of confidence with technology. SLPs conducting telepractice (n = 14) or face-to-face therapy (n = 18) completed an online survey which included the Therapeutic Alliance Scales for Children - Revised (TASC-r) (Therapist Form) to rate clinicians' perceptions of rapport with up to three clients. Participants also reported their overall perception of rapport with each client and their comfort with technology. There was a strong correlation between TASC-r total scores and overall ratings of rapport, providing preliminary evidence of TASC-r face validity. There was no significant difference between TASC-r scores for telepractice and face-to-face therapy (p = 0.961), nor face-to-face and telepractice SLPs' confidence with familiar (p = 0.414) or unfamiliar technology (p = 0.780). The TASC-r may be a promising tool for measuring therapeutic alliance in speech-language pathology. Telepractice does not appear to have a negative effect on rapport between SLPs and paediatric clients. Future research is required to identify how SLPs develop rapport in telepractice.

Are local communities prepared to face a future volcanic emergency at Vesuvius?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G. C.

2009-04-01

The Vesuvius represents, undoubtedly, the icon of volcanic threats, since more than 600,000 people live very close to the volcano. This image is strengthened by the presence of the archaeological ruins of Pompeii and Herculaneum, buried by the 79 A.D. plinian eruption, testifying nowadays the highly destructive impact on humans, buildings and environments. Nevertheless, many young people live in the Vesuvian area show an inadequate preparedness to face the next eruption. This is inferred by the results of a multiple choice questionnaire, distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano during the 2007. The questionnaire was aimed to understand the level of risk perception and preparedness of at-risk communities during the current quiescent period. The interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). This result suggests that, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The lack of knowledge about NEPVA is a sign of the absence of well-tested communication strategies and effective information dissemination in the study area. This lack of knowledge also means there is little interest in participating in risk-reduction activities. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to increase the risk perception of youth in local communities. In the absence of adequate preparedness measures, an evacuation could become "enforced" or even worse, a "failure."

Missed Opportunities for Science Learning: Unacknowledged Unscientific Arguments in Asynchronous Online and Face-to-Face Discussions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callis-Duehl, Kristine; Idsardi, Robert; Humphrey, Eve A.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

2018-02-01

We explored the scientific argumentation that occurs among university biology students during an argumentation task implemented in two environments: face-to-face in a classroom and online in an asynchronous discussion. We observed 10 student groups, each composed of three students. Our analysis focused on how students respond to their peers' unscientific arguments, which we define as assertions, hypotheses, propositions, or explanations that are inaccurate or incomplete from a scientific perspective. Unscientific arguments provide opportunities for productive dissent, scientific argumentation, and conceptual development of scientifically desirable conceptions. We found that students did not respond to the majority of unscientific arguments in both environments. Challenges to unscientific arguments were expressed as a question or through explanation, although the latter was more common online than face-to-face. Students demonstrated significantly more epistemic distancing in the face-to-face environment than the online environment. We discuss the differences in discourse observed in both environments and teaching implications. We also provide direction for future research seeking to address the challenges of engaging students in productive scientific argumentation in both face-to-face and online environments.

Learning to Learn about Uncertain Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faraut, Mailys C. M.; Procyk, Emmanuel; Wilson, Charles R. E.

2016-01-01

Unexpected outcomes can reflect noise in the environment or a change in the current rules. We should ignore noise but shift strategy after rule changes. How we learn to do this is unclear, but one possibility is that it relies on learning to learn in uncertain environments. We propose that acquisition of latent task structure during learning to…

Socio-Hydrology Modelling for an Uncertain Future, with Examples from the USA and Canada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Socio-hydrology brings an interest in human values, markets, social organizations and public policy to the traditional emphasis of water science on climate, hydrology, toxicology,and ecology. It also conveys a decision focus in the form of decision support tools, engagement, and new knowledge about the science-policy interface. This paper demonstrates how policy decisions and human behavior can be better integrated into climate and hydrological models to improve their usefulness for support in decision making. Examples from the Southwest USA and Western Canada highlight uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and critical tradeoffs facing water decision makers in the face of rapidly changing environmental and societal conditions. Irreducible uncertainties in downscaled climate and hydrological models limit the usefulness of climate-driven, predict-and-plan methods of water resource planning and management. Thus, it is argued that such methods should be replaced by approaches that use exploratory modelling, scenario planning, and risk assessment in which the emphasis is on managing uncertainty rather than on reducing it.

75 FR 60371 - Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-30

... Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service... the IRS to require corporations to file a schedule disclosing uncertain tax positions related to the tax return as required by the IRS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kathryn Zuba, (202) 622-3400 (not...

Blocked Paths, Uncertain Futures: The Postsecondary Education and Labor Market Prospects of Undocumented Latino Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrego, Leisy J.; Gonzales, Roberto G.

2010-01-01

Over the past few decades, undocumented settlement in the United States has grown to unprecedented numbers. Among the nearly 12 million undocumented immigrants, a substantial portion of undocumented youth is growing up with legal access to public education through high school but facing legal restrictions and economic barriers to higher education…

Camera pose refinement by matching uncertain 3D building models with thermal infrared image sequences for high quality texture extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaszczuk, Dorota; Stilla, Uwe

2017-10-01

Thermal infrared (TIR) images are often used to picture damaged and weak spots in the insulation of the building hull, which is widely used in thermal inspections of buildings. Such inspection in large-scale areas can be carried out by combining TIR imagery and 3D building models. This combination can be achieved via texture mapping. Automation of texture mapping avoids time consuming imaging and manually analyzing each face independently. It also provides a spatial reference for façade structures extracted in the thermal textures. In order to capture all faces, including the roofs, façades, and façades in the inner courtyard, an oblique looking camera mounted on a flying platform is used. Direct geo-referencing is usually not sufficient for precise texture extraction. In addition, 3D building models have also uncertain geometry. In this paper, therefore, methodology for co-registration of uncertain 3D building models with airborne oblique view images is presented. For this purpose, a line-based model-to-image matching is developed, in which the uncertainties of the 3D building model, as well as of the image features are considered. Matched linear features are used for the refinement of the exterior orientation parameters of the camera in order to ensure optimal co-registration. Moreover, this study investigates whether line tracking through the image sequence supports the matching. The accuracy of the extraction and the quality of the textures are assessed. For this purpose, appropriate quality measures are developed. The tests showed good results on co-registration, particularly in cases where tracking between the neighboring frames had been applied.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

Alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention, defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety during uncertain threats.

PubMed

Bradford, Daniel E; Motschman, Courtney A; Starr, Mark J; Curtin, John J

2017-11-01

Developing a better understanding of how and under what circumstances alcohol affects the emotions, cognitions and neural functions that precede and contribute to dangerous behaviors during intoxication may help to reduce their occurrence. Alcohol intoxication has recently been shown to reduce defensive reactivity and anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. However, alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention to these threats are unknown. Alcohol may disrupt both affective response to and attentional processing of uncertain threats making intoxicated individuals less able to avoid dangerous and costly behaviors. To test this possibility, we examined the effects of a broad range of blood alcohol concentrations on 96 participants' sub-cortically mediated defensive reactivity (startle potentiation), retrospective subjective anxiety (self-report) and cortically assessed emotionally motivated attention (probe P3 event related potential) while they experienced visually cued uncertain and certain location electric shock threat. As predicted, alcohol decreased defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. In a novel finding, alcohol dampened emotionally motivated attention during uncertain but not certain threat. This effect appeared independent of alcohol's effects on defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety. These results suggest that alcohol intoxication dampens processing of uncertain threats while leaving processing of certain threats intact. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Richard M. T.; Semmens, Darius J.

2009-01-01

The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.

Issues facing the future health care workforce: the importance of demand modelling

PubMed Central

Segal, Leonie; Bolton, Tom

2009-01-01

This article examines issues facing the future health care workforce in Australia in light of factors such as population ageing. It has been argued that population ageing in Australia is affecting the supply of health care professionals as the health workforce ages and at the same time increasing the demand for health care services and the health care workforce. However, the picture is not that simple. The health workforce market in Australia is influenced by a wide range of factors; on the demand side by increasing levels of income and wealth, emergence of new technologies, changing disease profiles, changing public health priorities and a focus on the prevention of chronic disease. While a strong correlation is observed between age and use of health care services (and thus health care workforce), this is mediated through illness, as typified by the consistent finding of higher health care costs in the months preceding death. On the supply side, the health workforce is highly influenced by policy drivers; both national policies (eg funded education and training places) and local policies (eg work place-based retention policies). Population ageing and ageing of the health workforce is not a dominant influence. In recent years, the Australian health care workforce has grown in excess of overall workforce growth, despite an ageing health workforce. We also note that current levels of workforce supply compare favourably with many OECD countries. The future of the health workforce will be shaped by a number of complex interacting factors. Market failure, a key feature of the market for health care services which is also observed in the health care labour market – means that imbalances between demand and supply can develop and persist, and suggests a role for health workforce planning to improve efficiency in the health services sector. Current approaches to health workforce planning, especially on the demand side, tend to be highly simplistic. These include

Obstacles facing Africa's young climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Addi, Martin; Andang'o, Hezron Awiti; Attig, Bahar Faten; Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Diasso, Ulrich Jacques; Du Plessis, Marcel; Lamine, Salim; Mongwe, Precious N.; Zaroug, Modathir; Ochanda, Valentine Khasenye

2018-06-01

Current and future climate change poses a substantial threat to the African continent. Young scientists are needed to advance Earth systems science on the continent, but they face significant challenges.

Altered brain activation and connectivity during anticipation of uncertain threat in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Geng, Haiyang; Wang, Yi; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia; Xu, Pengfei; Huang, Yuxia; Li, Xuebing

2018-06-08

In the research field of anxiety, previous studies generally focus on emotional responses following threat. A recent model of anxiety proposes that altered anticipation prior to uncertain threat is related with the development of anxiety. Behavioral findings have built the relationship between anxiety and distinct anticipatory processes including attention, estimation of threat, and emotional responses. However, few studies have characterized the brain organization underlying anticipation of uncertain threat and its role in anxiety. In the present study, we used an emotional anticipation paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the aforementioned topics by employing brain activation and general psychophysiological interactions (gPPI) analysis. In the activation analysis, we found that high trait anxious individuals showed significantly increased activation in the thalamus, middle temporal gyrus (MTG), and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), as well as decreased activation in the precuneus, during anticipation of uncertain threat compared to the certain condition. In the gPPI analysis, the key regions including the amygdala, dmPFC, and precuneus showed altered connections with distributed brain areas including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), inferior parietal sulcus (IPS), insula, para-hippocampus gyrus (PHA), thalamus, and MTG involved in anticipation of uncertain threat in anxious individuals. Taken together, our findings indicate that during the anticipation of uncertain threat, anxious individuals showed altered activations and functional connectivity in widely distributed brain areas, which may be critical for abnormal perception, estimation, and emotion reactions during the anticipation of uncertain threat. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ranking fluctuating asymmetry in a dot figure and the significant impact of imagining a face.

PubMed

Neby, Magne; Ivar, Folstad

2013-01-01

Fluctuating asymmetry and averageness is correlated with our perception of beauty in human faces. Yet, whether deviations of centrality in the positioning of the eyes, the nose, and the mouth have different effects on our perception of asymmetry in a holistic human face, is still uncertain. In this study we aimed to test the relative effect of decentralising the horizontal position of three sets of paired dots representing eyes, nostrils, or mouth from the vertical midline of ambiguous dot figures, vaguely resembling a face. The figures were ranked according to perceived asymmetry by human observers. When associating the figures with non-facial objects (eg a butterfly), none of the figures' rank distribution differed from each other. However, when observers imagined the figures to represent a human face, the figure with the decentralised pair of dots representing the nostrils was significantly ranked as more asymmetric than the other figures. This result provides indications that the brain may deal with information about facial asymmetry and averageness heavily depending on the centrality of the nasal region.

Face-to-face: Perceived personal relevance amplifies face processing

PubMed Central

Pittig, Andre; Schupp, Harald T.; Alpers, Georg W.

2017-01-01

Abstract The human face conveys emotional and social information, but it is not well understood how these two aspects influence face perception. In order to model a group situation, two faces displaying happy, neutral or angry expressions were presented. Importantly, faces were either facing the observer, or they were presented in profile view directed towards, or looking away from each other. In Experiment 1 (n = 64), face pairs were rated regarding perceived relevance, wish-to-interact, and displayed interactivity, as well as valence and arousal. All variables revealed main effects of facial expression (emotional > neutral), face orientation (facing observer > towards > away) and interactions showed that evaluation of emotional faces strongly varies with their orientation. Experiment 2 (n = 33) examined the temporal dynamics of perceptual-attentional processing of these face constellations with event-related potentials. Processing of emotional and neutral faces differed significantly in N170 amplitudes, early posterior negativity (EPN), and sustained positive potentials. Importantly, selective emotional face processing varied as a function of face orientation, indicating early emotion-specific (N170, EPN) and late threat-specific effects (LPP, sustained positivity). Taken together, perceived personal relevance to the observer—conveyed by facial expression and face direction—amplifies emotional face processing within triadic group situations. PMID:28158672

Face-to-face: Perceived personal relevance amplifies face processing.

PubMed

Bublatzky, Florian; Pittig, Andre; Schupp, Harald T; Alpers, Georg W

2017-05-01

The human face conveys emotional and social information, but it is not well understood how these two aspects influence face perception. In order to model a group situation, two faces displaying happy, neutral or angry expressions were presented. Importantly, faces were either facing the observer, or they were presented in profile view directed towards, or looking away from each other. In Experiment 1 (n = 64), face pairs were rated regarding perceived relevance, wish-to-interact, and displayed interactivity, as well as valence and arousal. All variables revealed main effects of facial expression (emotional > neutral), face orientation (facing observer > towards > away) and interactions showed that evaluation of emotional faces strongly varies with their orientation. Experiment 2 (n = 33) examined the temporal dynamics of perceptual-attentional processing of these face constellations with event-related potentials. Processing of emotional and neutral faces differed significantly in N170 amplitudes, early posterior negativity (EPN), and sustained positive potentials. Importantly, selective emotional face processing varied as a function of face orientation, indicating early emotion-specific (N170, EPN) and late threat-specific effects (LPP, sustained positivity). Taken together, perceived personal relevance to the observer-conveyed by facial expression and face direction-amplifies emotional face processing within triadic group situations. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

How Uncertain is Uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vámos, Tibor

The gist of the paper is the fundamental uncertain nature of all kinds of uncertainties and consequently a critical epistemic review of historical and recent approaches, computational methods, algorithms. The review follows the development of the notion from the beginnings of thinking, via the Aristotelian and Skeptic view, the medieval nominalism and the influential pioneering metaphors of ancient India and Persia to the birth of modern mathematical disciplinary reasoning. Discussing the models of uncertainty, e.g. the statistical, other physical and psychological background we reach a pragmatic model related estimation perspective, a balanced application orientation for different problem areas. Data mining, game theories and recent advances in approximation algorithms are discussed in this spirit of modest reasoning.

"It wasn't a disaster or anything": Parents' experiences of their child's uncertain chromosomal microarray result.

PubMed

Wilkins, Ella J; Archibald, Alison D; Sahhar, Margaret A; White, Susan M

2016-11-01

Chromosomal microarray is an increasingly utilized diagnostic test, particularly in the pediatric setting. However, the clinical significance of copy number variants detected by this technology is not always understood, creating uncertainties in interpreting and communicating results. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences of an uncertain microarray result for their child. This research utilized a qualitative approach with a phenomenological methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine parents of eight children who received an uncertain microarray result for their child, either a 16p11.2 microdeletion or 15q13.3 microdeletion. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was used to identify themes within the data. Participants were unprepared for the abnormal test result. They had a complex perception of the extent of their child's condition and a mixed understanding of the clinical relevance of the result, but were accepting of the limitations of medical knowledge, and appeared to have adapted to the result. The test result was empowering for parents in terms of access to medical and educational services; however, they articulated significant unmet support needs. Participants expressed hope for the future, in particular that more information would become available over time. This research has demonstrated that parents of children who have an uncertain microarray result appeared to adapt to uncertainty and limited availability of information and valued honesty and empathic ongoing support from health professionals. Genetic health professionals are well positioned to provide such support and aid patients' and families' adaptation to their situation as well as promote empowerment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Management Choices in an Uncertain Future: Navigating Snow, Precipitation, and Temperature Projections in the Pacific Northwest U.S. to Assess Water Management Alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C.

2014-12-01

Climate and hydrology models are regularly applied to assess potential changes in water resources and to inform adaptation decisions. An increasingly common question is, "What if we are wrong?" While climate models show substantial agreement on metrics such as pressure, temperature, and wind, they are notoriously uncertain in projecting precipitation change. The response to that uncertainty varies depending on the water management context and the nature of the uncertainty. In the southwestern U.S., large storage reservoirs (relative to annual supply) and general expectations of decreasing precipitation have guided extensive discussion on water management towards uncertainties in annual-scale water balances, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. In contrast, smaller reservoirs and little expectation for change in annual precipitation have focused discussions of Pacific Northwest water management toward shifts in runoff seasonality. The relative certainty of temperature impacts on snowpacks compared to the substantial uncertainty in precipitation has yielded a consistent narrative on earlier snowmelt. This narrative has been reinforced by a perception of essentially the same behavior in the historical record. This perception has led to calls in the political arena for more reservoir storage to replace snowpack storage for water supplies. Recent findings on differences in trends in precipitation at high versus low elevations, however, has recalled the uncertainty in precipitation futures and generated questions about alternative water management strategies. An important question with respect to snowpacks is whether the precipitation changes matter in the context of such substantial projections for temperature change. Here we apply an empirical snowpack model to analyze spatial differences in the uncertainty of snowpack responses to temperature and precipitation forcing across the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis reveals a strong geographic gradient in uncertainty

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Wang, Y. J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

A Method for Scheduling Air Traffic with Uncertain En Route Capacity Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneson, Heather; Bloem, Michael

2009-01-01

A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.

A resilient domain decomposition polynomial chaos solver for uncertain elliptic PDEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mycek, Paul; Contreras, Andres; Le Maître, Olivier; Sargsyan, Khachik; Rizzi, Francesco; Morris, Karla; Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert; Knio, Omar

2017-07-01

A resilient method is developed for the solution of uncertain elliptic PDEs on extreme scale platforms. The method is based on a hybrid domain decomposition, polynomial chaos (PC) framework that is designed to address soft faults. Specifically, parallel and independent solves of multiple deterministic local problems are used to define PC representations of local Dirichlet boundary-to-boundary maps that are used to reconstruct the global solution. A LAD-lasso type regression is developed for this purpose. The performance of the resulting algorithm is tested on an elliptic equation with an uncertain diffusivity field. Different test cases are considered in order to analyze the impacts of correlation structure of the uncertain diffusivity field, the stochastic resolution, as well as the probability of soft faults. In particular, the computations demonstrate that, provided sufficiently many samples are generated, the method effectively overcomes the occurrence of soft faults.

Ancient mitochondrial DNA reveals convergent evolution of giant short-faced bears (Tremarctinae) in North and South America.

PubMed

Mitchell, Kieren J; Bray, Sarah C; Bover, Pere; Soibelzon, Leopoldo; Schubert, Blaine W; Prevosti, Francisco; Prieto, Alfredo; Martin, Fabiana; Austin, Jeremy J; Cooper, Alan

2016-04-01

The Tremarctinae are a subfamily of bears endemic to the New World, including two of the largest terrestrial mammalian carnivores that have ever lived: the giant, short-faced bears Arctodus simus from North America and Arctotherium angustidens from South America (greater than or equal to 1000 kg). Arctotherium angustidens became extinct during the Early Pleistocene, whereas Arctodus simus went extinct at the very end of the Pleistocene. The only living tremarctine is the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus), a largely herbivorous bear that is today only found in South America. The relationships among the spectacled bears (Tremarctos), South American short-faced bears (Arctotherium) and North American short-faced bears (Arctodus) remain uncertain. In this study, we sequenced a mitochondrial genome from an Arctotherium femur preserved in a Chilean cave. Our molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the South American short-faced bears were more closely related to the extant South American spectacled bear than to the North American short-faced bears. This result suggests striking convergent evolution of giant forms in the two groups of short-faced bears (Arctodus and Arctotherium), potentially as an adaptation to dominate competition for megafaunal carcasses. © 2016 The Author(s).

Ancient mitochondrial DNA reveals convergent evolution of giant short-faced bears (Tremarctinae) in North and South America

PubMed Central

Bover, Pere; Soibelzon, Leopoldo; Schubert, Blaine W.; Prevosti, Francisco; Prieto, Alfredo; Martin, Fabiana; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

2016-01-01

The Tremarctinae are a subfamily of bears endemic to the New World, including two of the largest terrestrial mammalian carnivores that have ever lived: the giant, short-faced bears Arctodus simus from North America and Arctotherium angustidens from South America (greater than or equal to 1000 kg). Arctotherium angustidens became extinct during the Early Pleistocene, whereas Arctodus simus went extinct at the very end of the Pleistocene. The only living tremarctine is the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus), a largely herbivorous bear that is today only found in South America. The relationships among the spectacled bears (Tremarctos), South American short-faced bears (Arctotherium) and North American short-faced bears (Arctodus) remain uncertain. In this study, we sequenced a mitochondrial genome from an Arctotherium femur preserved in a Chilean cave. Our molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the South American short-faced bears were more closely related to the extant South American spectacled bear than to the North American short-faced bears. This result suggests striking convergent evolution of giant forms in the two groups of short-faced bears (Arctodus and Arctotherium), potentially as an adaptation to dominate competition for megafaunal carcasses. PMID:27095265

Communication competence, social support, and depression among college students: a model of facebook and face-to-face support network influence.

PubMed

Wright, Kevin B; Rosenberg, Jenny; Egbert, Nicole; Ploeger, Nicole A; Bernard, Daniel R; King, Shawn

2013-01-01

This study examined the influence of the social networking site Facebook and face-to-face support networks on depression among (N = 361) college students. The authors used the Relational Health Communication Competence Model as a framework for examining the influence of communication competence on social support network satisfaction and depression. Moreover, they examined the influence of interpersonal and social integrative motives as exogenous variables. On the basis of previous work, the authors propose and test a theoretical model using structural equation modeling. The results indicated empirical support for the model, with interpersonal motives predicting increased face-to-face and computer-mediated competence, increased social support satisfaction with face-to-face and Facebook support, and lower depression scores. The implications of the findings for theory, key limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.

National airspace system : FAA reauthorization issues are critical to system transformation and operations statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-01

As requested, this statement discusses issues for the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The aviation industry is in a period of economic turmoil and faces an : uncertain future. At the same time, FAA is undertaking one of ...

Top Strategic Issues Facing HBCUs, Now and into the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodge-Clark, Kristen; Daniels, Brandon D.

2014-01-01

Created in a time of segregation and discrimination to educate students of color, Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) have played a pivotal role in transforming the landscape of higher education in the United States. Today, in an era of rapid transformation, HBCUs face historic challenges as well as new obstacles. Questions about…

Homeland Security. Management Challenges Facing Federal Leadership

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-12-01

Security Management Challenges Facing Federal Leadership 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...including attention to management practices and key success factors. HOMELAND SECURITY Management Challenges Facing Federal Leadership www.gao.gov/cgi...significant management and coordination challenges if it is to provide this leadership and be successful in preventing and responding to any future

Modelling uncertain paternity to address differential pedigree accuracy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective was to implement uncertain parentage models to account for differences in daughter pedigree accuracy. Elite sires have nearly all daughters genotyped resulting in correct paternity assignment. Bulls of lesser genetic merit have fewer daughters genotyped creating the possibility for mor...

Serial block face scanning electron microscopy--the future of cell ultrastructure imaging.

PubMed

Hughes, Louise; Hawes, Chris; Monteith, Sandy; Vaughan, Sue

2014-03-01

One of the major drawbacks in transmission electron microscopy has been the production of three-dimensional views of cells and tissues. Currently, there is no one suitable 3D microscopy technique that answers all questions and serial block face scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fills the gap between 3D imaging using high-end fluorescence microscopy and the high resolution offered by electron tomography. In this review, we discuss the potential of the serial block face SEM technique for studying the three-dimensional organisation of animal, plant and microbial cells.

Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

1997-01-01

At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

PubMed

Yang, Yueran; Madon, Stephanie; Guyll, Max

2015-02-01

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future.

PubMed

Ratnam, Jayashree; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Rasquinha, Dina N; Sankaran, Mahesh

2016-09-19

The savannahs of Asia remain locally unrecognized as distinctive ecosystems, and continue to be viewed as degraded forests or seasonally dry tropical forests. These colonial-era legacies are problematic, because they fail to recognize the unique diversity of Asian savannahs and the critical roles of fire and herbivory in maintaining ecosystem health and diversity. In this review, we show that: the palaeo-historical evidence suggests that the savannahs of Asia have existed for at least 1 million years, long before widespread landscape modification by humans; savannah regions across Asia have levels of C4 grass endemism and diversity that are consistent with area-based expectations for non-Asian savannahs; there are at least three distinct Asian savannah communities, namely deciduous broadleaf savannahs, deciduous fine-leafed and spiny savannahs and evergreen pine savannahs, with distinct functional ecologies consistent with fire- and herbivory-driven community assembly. Via an analysis of savannah climate domains on other continents, we map the potential extent of savannahs across Asia. We find that the climates of African savannahs provide the closest analogues for those of Asian deciduous savannahs, but that Asian pine savannahs occur in climates different to any of the savannahs in the southern continents. Finally, we review major threats to the persistence of savannahs in Asia, including the mismanagement of fire and herbivory, alien woody encroachment, afforestation policies and future climate uncertainty associated with the changing Asian monsoon. Research agendas that target these issues are urgently needed to manage and conserve these ecosystems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Savannahs of Asia: antiquity, biogeography, and an uncertain future

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The savannahs of Asia remain locally unrecognized as distinctive ecosystems, and continue to be viewed as degraded forests or seasonally dry tropical forests. These colonial-era legacies are problematic, because they fail to recognize the unique diversity of Asian savannahs and the critical roles of fire and herbivory in maintaining ecosystem health and diversity. In this review, we show that: the palaeo-historical evidence suggests that the savannahs of Asia have existed for at least 1 million years, long before widespread landscape modification by humans; savannah regions across Asia have levels of C4 grass endemism and diversity that are consistent with area-based expectations for non-Asian savannahs; there are at least three distinct Asian savannah communities, namely deciduous broadleaf savannahs, deciduous fine-leafed and spiny savannahs and evergreen pine savannahs, with distinct functional ecologies consistent with fire- and herbivory-driven community assembly. Via an analysis of savannah climate domains on other continents, we map the potential extent of savannahs across Asia. We find that the climates of African savannahs provide the closest analogues for those of Asian deciduous savannahs, but that Asian pine savannahs occur in climates different to any of the savannahs in the southern continents. Finally, we review major threats to the persistence of savannahs in Asia, including the mismanagement of fire and herbivory, alien woody encroachment, afforestation policies and future climate uncertainty associated with the changing Asian monsoon. Research agendas that target these issues are urgently needed to manage and conserve these ecosystems. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502371

Disruptive Technology: An Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-21

Technology that overturns market -- Military - Technology that causes a fundamental change in force structure, basing, and capability balance * Disruptive Technologies may arise from systems or enabling technology.

Student Expression: The Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bathon, Justin M.; McCarthy, Martha M.

2008-01-01

On June 25, 2007, the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision in "Morse v. Frederick", a long-awaited ruling regarding student speech in public schools. For nearly twenty years, the Supreme Court had been silent on the issue while lower courts attempted to apply the rules announced in previous Supreme Court decisions. It is…

The uncertain future of Puna.

PubMed

Madina, M

1997-01-01

Each week, the Asociacion Pro-Bienestar de la Familia Ecuadoriana (APROFE), the Ecuadorian family planning association, sends a boat carrying a physician, a psychologist, and a nurse to provide basic and reproductive health care to approximately 4000 inhabitants of isolated fishing villages in Puna where housing on six islands consists of wooden shacks. One island has a church and a school but no priest or teacher. The island women have an average of five children each and cannot recall their children's ages or birth dates. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) supported the training of island midwives that has led to a dramatic improvement in infant mortality and morbidity rates. The islands must import their drinking water, and the inadequate supply and poor hygiene lead to illnesses that are hard to overcome. During an outbreak of cholera, the team visited every house to advise the residents to boil their water. The team son realized that the people were drinking boiling water to kill the germs. The settlements offer no communal activities beyond talking or, for the men, drinking together. The APROFE team has supervised the building of the first latrines in the communities and has organized a community Public Health Committee to mobilize the population to engage in community development. The APROFE team's efforts were supported from 1992-95 by the Dutch government and from 1995-96 by the UNFPA. With UNFPA funding nearing an end, APROFE is attempting to secure additional funding to continue to provide this population with the help they so desperately need.

An uncertain future for lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Lee T.

2018-03-01

The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

Silvicultural decisionmaking in an uncertain climate future: a workshop-based exploration of considerations, strategies, and approaches

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Christopher R. Webster; Brian J. Palik; Mark J. Twery; John B. Bradford; Linda R. Parker; Andrea T. Hille; Sheela M. Johnson

2011-01-01

Land managers across the country face the immense challenge of developing and applying appropriate management strategies as forests respond to climate change. We hosted a workshop to explore silvicultural strategies for addressing the uncertainties surrounding climate change and forest response in the northeastern and north-central United States. Outcomes of this...

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M

2011-10-01

In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Orientation in Times of Threat and Challenge: How Resilient Adolescents Construct Their Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seginer, Rachel

2008-01-01

Drawing on the importance of future orientation for adolescent development this analysis presents a model describing how future orientation is affected by high challenge (or resilience) in the face of political violence. The analysis consists of three parts. The first two present future orientation conceptualization and the psychological processes…

Adaptive identifier for uncertain complex nonlinear systems based on continuous neural networks.

PubMed

Alfaro-Ponce, Mariel; Cruz, Amadeo Argüelles; Chairez, Isaac

2014-03-01

This paper presents the design of a complex-valued differential neural network identifier for uncertain nonlinear systems defined in the complex domain. This design includes the construction of an adaptive algorithm to adjust the parameters included in the identifier. The algorithm is obtained based on a special class of controlled Lyapunov functions. The quality of the identification process is characterized using the practical stability framework. Indeed, the region where the identification error converges is derived by the same Lyapunov method. This zone is defined by the power of uncertainties and perturbations affecting the complex-valued uncertain dynamics. Moreover, this convergence zone is reduced to its lowest possible value using ideas related to the so-called ellipsoid methodology. Two simple but informative numerical examples are developed to show how the identifier proposed in this paper can be used to approximate uncertain nonlinear systems valued in the complex domain.

Novel density-based and hierarchical density-based clustering algorithms for uncertain data.

PubMed

Zhang, Xianchao; Liu, Han; Zhang, Xiaotong

2017-09-01

Uncertain data has posed a great challenge to traditional clustering algorithms. Recently, several algorithms have been proposed for clustering uncertain data, and among them density-based techniques seem promising for handling data uncertainty. However, some issues like losing uncertain information, high time complexity and nonadaptive threshold have not been addressed well in the previous density-based algorithm FDBSCAN and hierarchical density-based algorithm FOPTICS. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel density-based algorithm PDBSCAN, which improves the previous FDBSCAN from the following aspects: (1) it employs a more accurate method to compute the probability that the distance between two uncertain objects is less than or equal to a boundary value, instead of the sampling-based method in FDBSCAN; (2) it introduces new definitions of probability neighborhood, support degree, core object probability, direct reachability probability, thus reducing the complexity and solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for core object judgement) in FDBSCAN. Then, we modify the algorithm PDBSCAN to an improved version (PDBSCANi), by using a better cluster assignment strategy to ensure that every object will be assigned to the most appropriate cluster, thus solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for direct density reachability judgement) in FDBSCAN. Furthermore, as PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi have difficulties for clustering uncertain data with non-uniform cluster density, we propose a novel hierarchical density-based algorithm POPTICS by extending the definitions of PDBSCAN, adding new definitions of fuzzy core distance and fuzzy reachability distance, and employing a new clustering framework. POPTICS can reveal the cluster structures of the datasets with different local densities in different regions better than PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi, and it addresses the issues in FOPTICS. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over the existing

Policy issues facing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and prospects for the future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sweeney, J.

1999-04-01

This report is divided into the following 5 sections: (1) Background; (2) Major Issues Facing Ratification of CTBT; (3) Current Status on CTBT Ratification; (4) Status of CTBT Signatories and Ratifiers; and (5) CTBT Activities Not Prohibited. The major issues facing ratification of CTBT discussed here are: impact on CTBT of START II and ABM ratification; impact of India and Pakistan nuclear tests; CTBT entry into force; and establishment of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization.

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Looking Back to the Future: Current Issues Facing Nursing Education From the Reflections of a Member of the Silent Generation.

PubMed

Keating, Sarah B

2016-07-01

As a member of the Silent Generation, the author, through her lived experiences, reflects upon the successes and challenges facing nursing education in the mid-20th to 21st centuries. The author looks "back to the future" and reviews current issues that surround four key nursing education milestones. From the early entry-level baccalaureate programs in the 1950s to the current growth of the Doctor of Nursing Practice as entry into advanced practice, milestones in nursing education are linked to the cultural changes and healthcare system demands that took place at the time and their influence on nursing education and the profession. Looking to the future, the author speaks of the implications from the forecasted changes in the healthcare system that will demand interdisciplinary education and practice and the continued need for nursing research to increase the body of scientific knowledge in practice, education, and technology. Keating. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Controllable uncertain opinion diffusion under confidence bound and unpredicted diffusion probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuhan; Li, Zhaofeng; Jiang, Yichuan

2016-05-01

The issues of modeling and analyzing diffusion in social networks have been extensively studied in the last few decades. Recently, many studies focus on uncertain diffusion process. The uncertainty of diffusion process means that the diffusion probability is unpredicted because of some complex factors. For instance, the variety of individuals' opinions is an important factor that can cause uncertainty of diffusion probability. In detail, the difference between opinions can influence the diffusion probability, and then the evolution of opinions will cause the uncertainty of diffusion probability. It is known that controlling the diffusion process is important in the context of viral marketing and political propaganda. However, previous methods are hardly feasible to control the uncertain diffusion process of individual opinion. In this paper, we present suitable strategy to control this diffusion process based on the approximate estimation of the uncertain factors. We formulate a model in which the diffusion probability is influenced by the distance between opinions, and briefly discuss the properties of the diffusion model. Then, we present an optimization problem at the background of voting to show how to control this uncertain diffusion process. In detail, it is assumed that each individual can choose one of the two candidates or abstention based on his/her opinion. Then, we present strategy to set suitable initiators and their opinions so that the advantage of one candidate will be maximized at the end of diffusion. The results show that traditional influence maximization algorithms are not applicable to this problem, and our algorithm can achieve expected performance.

Experimental gravitation in space - Is there a future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wharton, R. A.; McKay, C. P.; Mancinelli, R. L.; Simmons, G. M.

Experimental gravitation enters the 1990s with a past full of successes, but with a future full of uncertainties. Intellectually, the field is as vigorous as ever, with major thrusts in three main areas: the search for gravitational radiation, the study of post and post-post Newtonian effects, and the detection of hypothetical feeble new interactions. It is the only branch of space research involved in fundamental physics. But politically and financially, the future is uncertain. Competition for funding and for flight opportunities will be stiff for the foreseeable future, both with other disciplines such as astrophysics, planetary science and the military, and within experimental gravitation itself. Difficult choices lie ahead. This paper reviews the current state of the field and attempts to peer into the future.

Elastic Face, An Anatomy-Based Biometrics Beyond Visible Cue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsap, L V; Zhang, Y; Kundu, S J

2004-03-29

This paper describes a face recognition method that is designed based on the consideration of anatomical and biomechanical characteristics of facial tissues. Elastic strain pattern inferred from face expression can reveal an individual's biometric signature associated with the underlying anatomical structure, and thus has the potential for face recognition. A method based on the continuum mechanics in finite element formulation is employed to compute the strain pattern. Experiments show very promising results. The proposed method is quite different from other face recognition methods and both its advantages and limitations, as well as future research for improvement are discussed.

Adolescents Facing the Future: Cultural and Sociopolitical Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seginer, Rachel

1988-01-01

Analysis of questionnaires completed by 228 Israeli high school students reveals that, for Jewish adolescents, the future is less salient than it is for Arab adolescents; Jewish adolescents express fewer concerns about their education, career, and collective issues than do their Arab counterparts. (BJV)

Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

2016-01-01

Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information. PMID:26910830

Critical Problems Facing Technology Education: Perceptions of Indiana Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazaros, Edward J.; Rogers, George E.

2006-01-01

In 1993 Wicklein conducted a study to determine the present and the future critical issues and problems facing the technology education (TE) profession. The Wicklein study questioned 25 panelists from 15 states and the District of Columbia to ascertain the issues and problems facing TE. However, in the Wicklein study, only seven of the panelists…

Smartphone based face recognition tool for the blind.

PubMed

Kramer, K M; Hedin, D S; Rolkosky, D J

2010-01-01

The inability to identify people during group meetings is a disadvantage for blind people in many professional and educational situations. To explore the efficacy of face recognition using smartphones in these settings, we have prototyped and tested a face recognition tool for blind users. The tool utilizes Smartphone technology in conjunction with a wireless network to provide audio feedback of the people in front of the blind user. Testing indicated that the face recognition technology can tolerate up to a 40 degree angle between the direction a person is looking and the camera's axis and a 96% success rate with no false positives. Future work will be done to further develop the technology for local face recognition on the smartphone in addition to remote server based face recognition.

Contextual Uncertainties, Human Mobility, and Perceived Food Environment: The Uncertain Geographic Context Problem in Food Access Research.

PubMed

Chen, Xiang; Kwan, Mei-Po

2015-09-01

We examined the uncertainty of the contextual influences on food access through an analytic framework of the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). We first examined the compounding effects of two kinds of spatiotemporal uncertainties on people's everyday efforts to procure food and then outlined three key dimensions (food access in real time, temporality of the food environment, and perceived nutrition environment) in which research on food access must improve to better represent the contributing environmental influences that operate at the individual level. Guidelines to address the UGCoP in future food access research are provided to account for the multidimensional influences of the food environment on dietary behaviors.

I don't know where to look: the impact of intolerance of uncertainty on saccades towards non-predictive emotional face distractors.

PubMed

Morriss, Jayne; McSorley, Eugene; van Reekum, Carien M

2017-08-24

Attentional bias to uncertain threat is associated with anxiety disorders. Here we examine the extent to which emotional face distractors (happy, angry and neutral) and individual differences in intolerance of uncertainty (IU), impact saccades in two versions of the "follow a cross" task. In both versions of the follow the cross task, the probability of receiving an emotional face distractor was 66.7%. To increase perceived uncertainty regarding the location of the face distractors, in one of the tasks additional non-predictive cues were presented before the onset of the face distractors and target. We did not find IU to impact saccades towards non-cued face distractors. However, we found IU, over Trait Anxiety, to impact saccades towards non-predictive cueing of face distractors. Under these conditions, IU individuals' eyes were pulled towards angry face distractors and away from happy face distractors overall, and the speed of this deviation of the eyes was determined by the combination of the cue and emotion of the face. Overall, these results suggest a specific role of IU on attentional bias to threat during uncertainty. These findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand anxiety disorder pathology and inform potential treatment targets.

Congenital prosopagnosia: face-blind from birth.

PubMed

Behrmann, Marlene; Avidan, Galia

2005-04-01

Congenital prosopagnosia refers to the deficit in face processing that is apparent from early childhood in the absence of any underlying neurological basis and in the presence of intact sensory and intellectual function. Several such cases have been described recently and elucidating the mechanisms giving rise to this impairment should aid our understanding of the psychological and neural mechanisms mediating face processing. Fundamental questions include: What is the nature and extent of the face-processing deficit in congenital prosopagnosia? Is the deficit related to a more general perceptual deficit such as the failure to process configural information? Are any neural alterations detectable using fMRI, ERP or structural analyses of the anatomy of the ventral visual cortex? We discuss these issues in relation to the existing literature and suggest directions for future research.

Urban Teachers Unions Face Their Future: The Dilemmas of Organizational Maturity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Bruce S.; Liotta, Marie-Elena

2001-01-01

Urban teachers' unions, as mature institutions, face three dilemmas: ensuring a steady supply of quality teachers while limiting supply to raise demand and salaries; seeking to become a more powerful national voice for teachers; and striving to preserve large, monopolistic public education while being aware of the need to reform, restructure, and…

Teacher Education in the United States of America, 2011

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imig, David; Wiseman, Donna; Imig, Scott

2011-01-01

Teacher education in the USA is faced with an uncertain future. Unprecedented efforts on the part of government, philanthropic foundations, social entrepreneurs, professional societies and others are reshaping the enterprise. Warring camps have emerged to promote decidedly different visions for teacher education, with university-based teacher…

Effectiveness of integrating case studies in online and face-to-face instruction of pathophysiology: a comparative study.

PubMed

Saleh, Suha M; Asi, Yara M; Hamed, Kastro M

2013-06-01

Due to growing demand from students and facilitated by innovations in educational technology, institutions of higher learning are increasingly offering online courses. Subjects in the hard sciences, such as pathophysiology, have traditionally been taught in the face-to-face format, but growing demand for preclinical science courses has compelled educators to incorporate online components into their classes to promote comprehension. Learning tools such as case studies are being integrated into such courses to aid in student interaction, engagement, and critical thinking skills. Careful assessment of pedagogical techniques is essential; hence, this study aimed to evaluate and compare student perceptions of the use of case studies in face-to-face and fully online pathophysiology classes. A series of case studies was incorporated into the curriculum of a pathophysiology class for both class modes (online and face to face). At the end of the semester, students filled out a survey assessing the effectiveness of the case studies. Both groups offered positive responses about the incorporation of case studies in the curriculum of the pathophysiology class. This study supports the argument that with proper use of innovative teaching tools, such as case studies, online pathophysiology classes can foster a sense of community and interaction that is typically only seen with face-to-face classes, based on student responses. Students also indicated that regardless of class teaching modality, use of case studies facilitates student learning and comprehension as well as prepares them for their future careers in health fields.

Finite-time synchronization of uncertain coupled switched neural networks under asynchronous switching.

PubMed

Wu, Yuanyuan; Cao, Jinde; Li, Qingbo; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Alsaadi, Fuad E

2017-01-01

This paper deals with the finite-time synchronization problem for a class of uncertain coupled switched neural networks under asynchronous switching. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov-like functionals and using the average dwell time technique, some sufficient criteria are derived to guarantee the finite-time synchronization of considered uncertain coupled switched neural networks. Meanwhile, the asynchronous switching feedback controller is designed to finite-time synchronize the concerned networks. Finally, two numerical examples are introduced to show the validity of the main results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural synchronization during face-to-face communication.

PubMed

Jiang, Jing; Dai, Bohan; Peng, Danling; Zhu, Chaozhe; Liu, Li; Lu, Chunming

2012-11-07

Although the human brain may have evolutionarily adapted to face-to-face communication, other modes of communication, e.g., telephone and e-mail, increasingly dominate our modern daily life. This study examined the neural difference between face-to-face communication and other types of communication by simultaneously measuring two brains using a hyperscanning approach. The results showed a significant increase in the neural synchronization in the left inferior frontal cortex during a face-to-face dialog between partners but none during a back-to-back dialog, a face-to-face monologue, or a back-to-back monologue. Moreover, the neural synchronization between partners during the face-to-face dialog resulted primarily from the direct interactions between the partners, including multimodal sensory information integration and turn-taking behavior. The communicating behavior during the face-to-face dialog could be predicted accurately based on the neural synchronization level. These results suggest that face-to-face communication, particularly dialog, has special neural features that other types of communication do not have and that the neural synchronization between partners may underlie successful face-to-face communication.

Variational Assimilation of Sparse and Uncertain Satellite Data For 1D Saint-Venant River Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garambois, P. A.; Brisset, P.; Monnier, J.; Roux, H.

2016-12-01

Profusion of satellites are providing increasingly accurate measurements of continental water cyle, and water bodies variations while in situ observability is declining. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide maps of river surface elevations widths and slopes with an almost global coverage and temporal revisits. This will offer the possibility to address a larger variety of inverse problems in surface hydrology. Data assimilation techniques, that are broadly used in several scientific fields, aim to optimally combine models, system observations and prior information. Variational assimilation consists in iterative minimization of a discrepency measure between model outputs and observations, here for retrieving boundary conditions and parameters of a 1D Saint Venant model. Nevertheless, inferring river discharge and hydraulic parameters thanks to the observation of river surface is not straightforward. This is particularly true in the case of sparse and uncertain observations of flow state variables since they are governed by nonlinear physical processes. This paper investigates the identifiability of hydraulic controls given sparse and uncertain satellite observations of a river. The identifiability of river discharge alone and with roughness is tested for several spatio temporal patterns of river observations, including SWOT like observations. A new 1D Shallow water model with variational data assimilation, within the DassFlow chain is presented as well as postprocessing and observation operator dedicated to the future SWOT and SWOT simulator data. In view to decrease inverse problem dimensionality discharge is represented in a reduced basis. Moreover we introduce an original and reduced parametrization of the flow resistance that can account for various flow regimes along with a cross section design dedicated to remote sensing. We show which discharge temporal frequencies can be identified w.r.t observation ones and at which

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

Association between problematic alcohol use and reactivity to uncertain threat in two independent samples

PubMed Central

Gorka, Stephanie M.; Lieberman, Lynne; Phan, K. Luan; Shankman, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

Background Recent laboratory studies have shown that acute alcohol intoxication selectively and effectively dampens aversive responding to an uncertain threat. An emerging hypothesis is that individuals who exhibit heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat may be especially motivated to use alcohol to dampen their distress, setting the stage for negative reinforcement processes to drive excessive alcohol use. However, no study to date has directly examined whether current problematic drinkers exhibit heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat as would be expected. Methods The present study was therefore designed to examine the association between current problematic alcohol use and reactivity to an uncertain threat during sobriety in two, independent samples. In Study 1 (n = 221) and Study 2 (n = 74), adult participants completed the same well-validated threat-of-shock task which separately probes responses to temporally predictable and unpredictable threat. Startle potentiation was measured as an index of aversive responding. Problematic alcohol use was defined as number of binge episodes within the past 30 days in Study 1 and total scores on a self-report measure of hazardous drinking in Study 2. Results As hypothesized, across both studies greater levels of problematic drinking were associated with greater startle potentiation to an unpredictable threat. In Study 2, hazardous drinking scores were also positively associated with startle potentiation to predictable threat. Conclusions The findings are notably consistent with the notion that heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat is an important individual difference factor associated with the onset and/or maintenance of problematic drinking behaviors and may therefore be a novel prevention and intervention target. PMID:27173662

Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Michael S. Hand; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Nicole M. Vaillant; Darek J. Nalle

2013-01-01

Land management agencies face uncertain tradeoffs regarding investments in preparedness and fuels management versus future suppression costs and impacts to valued resources and assets. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and can facilitate tradeoff analysis...

Scholarly Groups' Choices Yield Diverging Fortunes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berrett, Dan

2012-01-01

Scholarly groups have long served as hubs of academic life and the embodiments of their disciplines, but they face uncertain and divergent futures. Some disciplinary associations are struggling to remain relevant and financially viable as demographic and technological changes threaten their traditional sources of revenue. The core of their…

Creativity in Business/Business in Creativity: Transdisciplinary Curricula as an Enabling Strategy in Enterprise Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penaluna, Andrew; Penaluna, Kathryn

2009-01-01

Recent guidance for UK government policy makers has warned that HEIs face an uncertain future and has advocated transdisciplinary curricula. Earlier, in 2005, two other UK government papers highlighted the advantages of integrating design-related strategies into business environments and addressed the impact creativity could have on business…

Broadening the study of inductive reasoning: confirmation judgments with uncertain evidence.

PubMed

Mastropasqua, Tommaso; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya

2010-10-01

Although evidence in real life is often uncertain, the psychology of inductive reasoning has, so far, been confined to certain evidence. The present study extends previous research by investigating whether people properly estimate the impact of uncertain evidence on a given hypothesis. Two experiments are reported, in which the uncertainty of evidence is explicitly (by means of numerical values) versus implicitly (by means of ambiguous pictures) manipulated. The results show that people's judgments are highly correlated with those predicted by normatively sound Bayesian measures of impact. This sensitivity to the degree of evidential uncertainty supports the centrality of inductive reasoning in cognition and opens the path to the study of this issue in more naturalistic settings.

Stability analysis for uncertain switched neural networks with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Shen, Wenwen; Zeng, Zhigang; Wang, Leimin

2016-11-01

In this paper, stability for a class of uncertain switched neural networks with time-varying delay is investigated. By exploring the mode-dependent properties of each subsystem, all the subsystems are categorized into stable and unstable ones. Based on Lyapunov-like function method and average dwell time technique, some delay-dependent sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the exponential stability of considered uncertain switched neural networks. Compared with general results, our proposed approach distinguishes the stable and unstable subsystems rather than viewing all subsystems as being stable, thus getting less conservative criteria. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to show the validity and the advantages of the obtained results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two Energy Futures: A National Choice for the 80s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Petroleum Inst., Washington, DC.

In 1980, the American Petroleum Institute published the first edition of "Two Energy Futures." It described the U.S. energy experience of the 1970s and prospects for the 1980s, concluding that the nation could drastically reduce its dependence on uncertain sources of imported oil if the right choices were made by individuals and the…

Robust Unit Commitment Considering Uncertain Demand Response

DOE PAGES

Liu, Guodong; Tomsovic, Kevin

2014-09-28

Although price responsive demand response has been widely accepted as playing an important role in the reliable and economic operation of power system, the real response from demand side can be highly uncertain due to limited understanding of consumers' response to pricing signals. To model the behavior of consumers, the price elasticity of demand has been explored and utilized in both research and real practice. However, the price elasticity of demand is not precisely known and may vary greatly with operating conditions and types of customers. To accommodate the uncertainty of demand response, alternative unit commitment methods robust to themore » uncertainty of the demand response require investigation. In this paper, a robust unit commitment model to minimize the generalized social cost is proposed for the optimal unit commitment decision taking into account uncertainty of the price elasticity of demand. By optimizing the worst case under proper robust level, the unit commitment solution of the proposed model is robust against all possible realizations of the modeled uncertain demand response. Numerical simulations on the IEEE Reliability Test System show the e ectiveness of the method. Finally, compared to unit commitment with deterministic price elasticity of demand, the proposed robust model can reduce the average Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) as well as the price volatility.« less

Governance in the Digital Age: A Research and Action Framework for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawes, Sharon S.

2009-01-01

Research into relationships among government, society and technology has grown substantially over the past 30 years. However, most research and most advances in practice address narrowly defined categories of concern such as government organization, citizen services, interoperability, or personal privacy. By contrast, the future presents complex…

A Meta-analytic Comparison of Face-to-Face and Online Delivery in Ethics Instruction: The Case for a Hybrid Approach.

PubMed

Todd, E Michelle; Watts, Logan L; Mulhearn, Tyler J; Torrence, Brett S; Turner, Megan R; Connelly, Shane; Mumford, Michael D

2017-12-01

Despite the growing body of literature on training in the responsible conduct of research, few studies have examined the effectiveness of delivery formats used in ethics courses (i.e., face-to-face, online, hybrid). The present effort sought to address this gap in the literature through a meta-analytic review of 66 empirical studies, representing 106 ethics courses and 10,069 participants. The frequency and effectiveness of 67 instructional and process-based content areas were also assessed for each delivery format. Process-based contents were best delivered face-to-face, whereas contents delivered online were most effective when restricted to compliance-based instructional contents. Overall, hybrid courses were found to be most effective, suggesting that ethics courses are best delivered using a blend of formats and content areas. Implications and recommendations for future development of ethics education courses in the sciences are discussed.

Famous face recognition, face matching, and extraversion.

PubMed

Lander, Karen; Poyarekar, Siddhi

2015-01-01

It has been previously established that extraverts who are skilled at interpersonal interaction perform significantly better than introverts on a face-specific recognition memory task. In our experiment we further investigate the relationship between extraversion and face recognition, focusing on famous face recognition and face matching. Results indicate that more extraverted individuals perform significantly better on an upright famous face recognition task and show significantly larger face inversion effects. However, our results did not find an effect of extraversion on face matching or inverted famous face recognition.

Planning for an uncertain future: Restoration to mitigate water scarcity and sustain carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; David N. Wear; Larry Band

2018-01-01

The desired future conditions of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) can be described by ecosystem structural characteristics as well as by the provision of ecosystem services. Although the desired structural characteristics of restored longleaf pine ecosystems have been described at length, these characteristics deserve a brief review here because...

Adaptive control of a quadrotor aerial vehicle with input constraints and uncertain parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Trong-Toan; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; He, Wei

2018-05-01

In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive bounded control for the trajectory tracking of a Quadrotor Aerial Vehicle (QAV) while the input saturations and uncertain parameters with the known bounds are simultaneously taken into account. First, to deal with the underactuated property of the QAV model, we decouple and construct the QAV model as a cascaded structure which consists of two fully actuated subsystems. Second, to handle the input constraints and uncertain parameters, we use a combination of the smooth saturation function and smooth projection operator in the control design. Third, to ensure the stability of the overall system of the QAV, we develop the technique for the cascaded system in the presence of both the input constraints and uncertain parameters. Finally, the region of stability of the closed-loop system is constructed explicitly, and our design ensures the asymptotic convergence of the tracking errors to the origin. The simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Formation Learning Control of Multiple Autonomous Underwater Vehicles With Heterogeneous Nonlinear Uncertain Dynamics.

PubMed

Yuan, Chengzhi; Licht, Stephen; He, Haibo

2017-09-26

In this paper, a new concept of formation learning control is introduced to the field of formation control of multiple autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which specifies a joint objective of distributed formation tracking control and learning/identification of nonlinear uncertain AUV dynamics. A novel two-layer distributed formation learning control scheme is proposed, which consists of an upper-layer distributed adaptive observer and a lower-layer decentralized deterministic learning controller. This new formation learning control scheme advances existing techniques in three important ways: 1) the multi-AUV system under consideration has heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics; 2) the formation learning control protocol can be designed and implemented by each local AUV agent in a fully distributed fashion without using any global information; and 3) in addition to the formation control performance, the distributed control protocol is also capable of accurately identifying the AUVs' heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics and utilizing experiences to improve formation control performance. Extensive simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

PubMed

Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

2010-11-01

Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

the administration’s plans to de - ploy BMD components in Bulgaria and Romania by 2015, and has fiercely criticized global zero both in terms of the...Military Doctrine, Moscow tried to fight off politically and diplomatically the expanding U.S. BMD program and, in particular, U.S. plans to de - ploy a...has encountered major de - lays and its future remains uncertain. Modernization of the air leg has been postponed—Russia plans to rely on existing

Feature-Based versus Category-Based Induction with Uncertain Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Oren; Hayes, Brett K.; Newell, Ben R.

2012-01-01

Previous research has suggested that when feature inferences have to be made about an instance whose category membership is uncertain, feature-based inductive reasoning is used to the exclusion of category-based induction. These results contrast with the observation that people can and do use category-based induction when category membership is…

The Evolution of Holistic Processing of Faces

PubMed Central

Burke, Darren; Sulikowski, Danielle

2013-01-01

In this paper we examine the holistic processing of faces from an evolutionary perspective, clarifying what such an approach entails, and evaluating the extent to which the evidence currently available permits any strong conclusions. While it seems clear that the holistic processing of faces depends on mechanisms evolved to perform that task, our review of the comparative literature reveals that there is currently insufficient evidence (or sometimes insufficiently compelling evidence) to decide when in our evolutionary past such processing may have arisen. It is also difficult to assess what kinds of selection pressures may have led to evolution of such a mechanism, or even what kinds of information holistic processing may have originally evolved to extract, given that many sources of socially relevant face-based information other than identity depend on integrating information across different regions of the face – judgments of expression, behavioral intent, attractiveness, sex, age, etc. We suggest some directions for future research that would help to answer these important questions. PMID:23382721

Intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni means and their application to multiple attribute decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhengmin; Liu, Peide

2017-04-01

The Bonferroni mean (BM) was originally introduced by Bonferroni and generalised by many other researchers due to its capacity to capture the interrelationship between input arguments. Nevertheless, in many situations, interrelationships do not always exist between all of the attributes. Attributes can be partitioned into several different categories and members of intra-partition are interrelated while no interrelationship exists between attributes of different partitions. In this paper, as complements to the existing generalisations of BM, we investigate the partitioned Bonferroni mean (PBM) under intuitionistic uncertain linguistic environments and develop two linguistic aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (IULPBM) and its weighted form (WIULPBM). Then, motivated by the ideal of geometric mean and PBM, we further present the partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (PGBM) and develop two linguistic geometric aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (IULPGBM) and its weighted form (WIULPGBM). Some properties and special cases of these proposed operators are also investigated and discussed in detail. Based on these operators, an approach for multiple attribute decision-making problems with intuitionistic uncertain linguistic information is developed. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the developed approach and comparison analyses are conducted with other representative methods to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed approach.

A Prestudy Curricula-as-Research Model for Scholarship of Engagement: Combining Continuous Service with Discontinuous Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Sherrie

2017-01-01

Restructuring changes in higher education may be affecting how faculty conduct the scholarship of engagement. As faculty increasingly face uncertain futures, the limits of service-learning need to be better understood in order to maximize the pedagogical possibilities. One way of exploring limitations is to focus on sustainable faculty-community…

Accelerating the development of old-growth characteristics in second-growth northern hardwoods

Treesearch

Karin S. Fassnacht; Dustin R. Bronson; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato; Craig Lorimer; Karl J. Martin

2015-01-01

Active management techniques that emulate natural forest disturbance and stand development processes have the potential to enhance species diversity, structural complexity, and spatial heterogeneity in managed forests, helping to meet goals related to biodiversity, ecosystem health, and forest resilience in the face of uncertain future conditions. There are a number of...

Preserving and Strengthening Together: Collective Strategies of U.S.Women's College Presidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Auden D.

2008-01-01

Women's colleges in the 1970s and 1980s faced highly uncertain futures. Soaring popularity of coeducation left them with serious enrollment downturns, and challenges from proposed equal rights legislation threatened to render illegal their single-sex admissions policies. These perilous external conditions drew together the presidents of U.S.…

Parametric optimal control of uncertain systems under an optimistic value criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Zhu, Yuanguo

2018-01-01

It is well known that the optimal control of a linear quadratic model is characterized by the solution of a Riccati differential equation. In many cases, the corresponding Riccati differential equation cannot be solved exactly such that the optimal feedback control may be a complex time-oriented function. In this article, a parametric optimal control problem of an uncertain linear quadratic model under an optimistic value criterion is considered for simplifying the expression of optimal control. Based on the equation of optimality for the uncertain optimal control problem, an approximation method is presented to solve it. As an application, a two-spool turbofan engine optimal control problem is given to show the utility of the proposed model and the efficiency of the presented approximation method.

How Do Future Life Perspective and Present Action Work in Japanese Youth Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kawai, Toru; Moran, Seana

2017-01-01

"Future life perspective" and "present action," whose interaction affects how one's current activity affects later life, offer a critical crossroads for young adults in Japan as stable career paths have become more uncertain. Past generations benefited from stable institutional pathways, but recent generations must forge their…

Using alternatives to face-to-face consultations: a survey of prevalence and attitudes in general practice

PubMed Central

Brant, Heather; Atherton, Helen; Ziebland, Sue; McKinstry, Brian; Campbell, John L; Salisbury, Chris

2016-01-01

Background The ubiquitous use of communication technologies has led to an expectation that a similar approach should extend to health care. Despite considerable rhetoric about the need for general practices to offer alternatives to face-to-face consultations, such as telephone, email, and internet video consultations, the extent to which such technologies are actually used at present is unclear. Aim The aim of the survey was to identify the frequency and range of ways in which general practices are providing (or planning) alternatives to face-to-face consultations. Design and setting A postal survey of practices around Bristol, Oxford, Lothian, the Highlands, and the Western Isles of Scotland. Method A postal questionnaire survey was sent to each of the GPs and practice managers of 421 practices between January and May 2015. Results A response was received from 319/421 practices (76%). Although the majority of the practices reported that they were conducting telephone consultations frequently (n = 211/318, 66%), fewer were implementing email consultations (n = 18/318, 6%), and most (n = 169/318, 53%) had no plans to introduce this. None were currently using internet video, and 86% (n = 273/318) had no plans to introduce internet video consultations. These findings were repeated in the reported use of alternatives to face-to-face consultations at an individual GP level. Optional free text responses were completed by 28% of responders, and offered an explanation for the (often perceived) barriers and incentives for implementation. Conclusion Despite policy pressure to introduce consultations by email and internet video, there is a general reluctance among GPs to implement alternatives to face-to-face consultations. This identifies a substantial gap between rhetoric and reality in terms of the likelihood of certain alternatives (email, video) changing practice in the near future. PMID:27215571

Using alternatives to face-to-face consultations: a survey of prevalence and attitudes in general practice.

PubMed

Brant, Heather; Atherton, Helen; Ziebland, Sue; McKinstry, Brian; Campbell, John L; Salisbury, Chris

2016-07-01

The ubiquitous use of communication technologies has led to an expectation that a similar approach should extend to health care. Despite considerable rhetoric about the need for general practices to offer alternatives to face-to-face consultations, such as telephone, email, and internet video consultations, the extent to which such technologies are actually used at present is unclear. The aim of the survey was to identify the frequency and range of ways in which general practices are providing (or planning) alternatives to face-to-face consultations. A postal survey of practices around Bristol, Oxford, Lothian, the Highlands, and the Western Isles of Scotland. A postal questionnaire survey was sent to each of the GPs and practice managers of 421 practices between January and May 2015. A response was received from 319/421 practices (76%). Although the majority of the practices reported that they were conducting telephone consultations frequently (n = 211/318, 66%), fewer were implementing email consultations (n = 18/318, 6%), and most (n = 169/318, 53%) had no plans to introduce this. None were currently using internet video, and 86% (n = 273/318) had no plans to introduce internet video consultations. These findings were repeated in the reported use of alternatives to face-to-face consultations at an individual GP level. Optional free text responses were completed by 28% of responders, and offered an explanation for the (often perceived) barriers and incentives for implementation. Despite policy pressure to introduce consultations by email and internet video, there is a general reluctance among GPs to implement alternatives to face-to-face consultations. This identifies a substantial gap between rhetoric and reality in terms of the likelihood of certain alternatives (email, video) changing practice in the near future. © British Journal of General Practice 2016.

Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

2017-04-01

Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

Face recognition system and method using face pattern words and face pattern bytes

DOEpatents

Zheng, Yufeng

2014-12-23

The present invention provides a novel system and method for identifying individuals and for face recognition utilizing facial features for face identification. The system and method of the invention comprise creating facial features or face patterns called face pattern words and face pattern bytes for face identification. The invention also provides for pattern recognitions for identification other than face recognition. The invention further provides a means for identifying individuals based on visible and/or thermal images of those individuals by utilizing computer software implemented by instructions on a computer or computer system and a computer readable medium containing instructions on a computer system for face recognition and identification.

Evaluation of Ares-I Control System Robustness to Uncertain Aerodynamics and Flex Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jang, Jiann-Woei; VanTassel, Chris; Bedrossian, Nazareth; Hall, Charles; Spanos, Pol

2008-01-01

This paper discusses the application of robust control theory to evaluate robustness of the Ares-I control systems. Three techniques for estimating upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters which yield stable closed-loop response are used here: (1) Monte Carlo analysis, (2) mu analysis, and (3) characteristic frequency response analysis. All three methods are used to evaluate stability envelopes of the Ares-I control systems with uncertain aerodynamics and flex dynamics. The results show that characteristic frequency response analysis is the most effective of these methods for assessing robustness.

Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change.

PubMed

Mumby, Peter J; Elliott, Ian A; Eakin, C Mark; Skirving, William; Paris, Claire B; Edwards, Helen J; Enríquez, Susana; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Cherubin, Laurent M; Stevens, Jamie R

2011-02-01

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

CKD of Uncertain Etiology: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Mohottige, Dinushika; Isenburg, Megan Von; Jeuland, Marc; Patel, Uptal D.; Stanifer, John W.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Epidemics of CKD of uncertain etiology (CKDu) are emerging around the world. Highlighting common risk factors for CKD of uncertain etiology across various regions and populations may be important for health policy and public health responses. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify published studies on CKDu. The search was generated in January of 2015; no language or date limits were used. We used a vote-counting method to evaluate exposures across all studies. Results We identified 1607 articles, of which 26 met inclusion criteria. Eighteen (69%) were conducted in known CKDu–endemic countries: Sri Lanka (38%), Nicaragua (19%), and El Salvador (12%). The other studies were from India, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Sweden, Tunisia, Tanzania, and the United States. Heavy metals, heat stress, and dietary exposures were reported across all geographic regions. In south Asia, family history, agrochemical use, and heavy metal exposures were reported most frequently, whereas altitude and temperature were reported only in studies from Central America. Across all regions, CKDu was most frequently associated with a family history of CKDu, agricultural occupation, men, middle age, snake bite, and heavy metal exposure. Conclusions Studies examining etiologies of CKDu have reported many exposures that are heterogeneous and vary by region. To identify etiologies of CKDu, designing consistent and comparative multisite studies across high-risk populations may help elucidate the importance of region–specific versus global risk factors. PMID:26712810

CKD of Uncertain Etiology: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Mohottige, Dinushika; Von Isenburg, Megan; Jeuland, Marc; Patel, Uptal D; Stanifer, John W

2016-03-07

Epidemics of CKD of uncertain etiology (CKDu) are emerging around the world. Highlighting common risk factors for CKD of uncertain etiology across various regions and populations may be important for health policy and public health responses. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify published studies on CKDu. The search was generated in January of 2015; no language or date limits were used. We used a vote-counting method to evaluate exposures across all studies. We identified 1607 articles, of which 26 met inclusion criteria. Eighteen (69%) were conducted in known CKDu-endemic countries: Sri Lanka (38%), Nicaragua (19%), and El Salvador (12%). The other studies were from India, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Sweden, Tunisia, Tanzania, and the United States. Heavy metals, heat stress, and dietary exposures were reported across all geographic regions. In south Asia, family history, agrochemical use, and heavy metal exposures were reported most frequently, whereas altitude and temperature were reported only in studies from Central America. Across all regions, CKDu was most frequently associated with a family history of CKDu, agricultural occupation, men, middle age, snake bite, and heavy metal exposure. Studies examining etiologies of CKDu have reported many exposures that are heterogeneous and vary by region. To identify etiologies of CKDu, designing consistent and comparative multisite studies across high-risk populations may help elucidate the importance of region-specific versus global risk factors. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

2015-12-01

The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

Population, Resources, Environment: An Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Repetto, Robert

1987-01-01

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of…

Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

Treesearch

Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

2013-01-01

Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

Virtual & Real Face to Face Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teneqexhi, Romeo; Kuneshka, Loreta

2016-01-01

In traditional "face to face" lessons, during the time the teacher writes on a black or white board, the students are always behind the teacher. Sometimes, this happens even in the recorded lesson in videos. Most of the time during the lesson, the teacher shows to the students his back not his face. We do not think the term "face to…

Terminal sliding mode tracking control for a class of SISO uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Wu, Qing-Xian; Cui, Rong-Xin

2013-03-01

In this paper, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is proposed for the uncertain single-input and single-output (SISO) nonlinear system with unknown external disturbance. For the unmeasured disturbance of nonlinear systems, terminal sliding mode disturbance observer is presented. The developed disturbance observer can guarantee the disturbance approximation error to converge to zero in the finite time. Based on the output of designed disturbance observer, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is presented for uncertain SISO nonlinear systems. Subsequently, terminal sliding mode tracking control is developed using disturbance observer technique for the uncertain SISO nonlinear system with control singularity and unknown non-symmetric input saturation. The effects of the control singularity and unknown input saturation are combined with the external disturbance which is approximated using the disturbance observer. Under the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control techniques, the finite time convergence of all closed-loop signals are guaranteed via Lyapunov analysis. Numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variants of uncertain significance in newborn screening disorders: implications for large-scale genomic sequencing.

PubMed

Narravula, Alekhya; Garber, Kathryn B; Askree, S Hussain; Hegde, Madhuri; Hall, Patricia L

2017-01-01

As exome and genome sequencing using high-throughput sequencing technologies move rapidly into the diagnostic process, laboratories and clinicians need to develop a strategy for dealing with uncertain findings. A commitment must be made to minimize these findings, and all parties may need to make adjustments to their processes. The information required to reclassify these variants is often available but not communicated to all relevant parties. To illustrate these issues, we focused on three well-characterized monogenic, metabolic disorders included in newborn screens: classic galactosemia, caused by GALT variants; phenylketonuria, caused by PAH variants; and medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency, caused by ACADM variants. In 10 years of clinical molecular testing, we have observed 134 unique GALT variants, 46 of which were variants of uncertain significance (VUS). In PAH, we observed 132 variants, including 17 VUS, and for ACADM, we observed 64 unique variants, of which 33 were uncertain. After this review, 17 VUS (37%; 7 in ACADM, 9 in GALT, and 1 in PAH) were reclassified from uncertain (6 to benign or likely benign and 11 to pathogenic or likely pathogenic). We identified common types of missing information that would have helped make a definitive classification and categorized this information by ease and cost to obtain.Genet Med 19 1, 77-82.

Framing faces: Frame alignment impacts holistic face perception.

PubMed

Curby, Kim M; Entenman, Robert

2016-11-01

Traditional accounts of face perception emphasise the importance of the prototypical configuration of features within faces. However, here we probe influences of more general perceptual grouping mechanisms on holistic face perception. Participants made part-matching judgments about composite faces presented in intact external oval frames or frames made from misaligned oval parts. This manipulation served to disrupt basic perceptual grouping cues that facilitate the grouping of the two face halves together. This manipulation also produced an external face contour like that in the standard misaligned condition used within the classic composite face task. Notably, by introducing a discontinuity in the external contour, grouping of the face halves into a cohesive unit was discouraged, but face configuration was preserved. Conditions where both the face parts and the frames were misaligned together, as in the typical composite task paradigm, or where just the internal face parts where misaligned, were also included. Disrupting only the face frame similarly disrupted holistic face perception as disrupting both the frame and face configuration. However, misaligned face parts presented in aligned frames also incurred a cost to holistic perception. These findings provide support for the contribution of general-purpose perceptual grouping mechanisms to holistic face perception and are presented and discussed in the context of an enhanced object-based selection account of holistic perception.

The Facespan-the perceptual span for face recognition.

PubMed

Papinutto, Michael; Lao, Junpeng; Ramon, Meike; Caldara, Roberto; Miellet, Sébastien

2017-05-01

In reading, the perceptual span is a well-established concept that refers to the amount of information that can be read in a single fixation. Surprisingly, despite extensive empirical interest in determining the perceptual strategies deployed to process faces and an ongoing debate regarding the factors or mechanism(s) underlying efficient face processing, the perceptual span for faces-the Facespan-remains undetermined. To address this issue, we applied the gaze-contingent Spotlight technique implemented in an old-new face recognition paradigm. This procedure allowed us to parametrically vary the amount of facial information available at a fixated location in order to determine the minimal aperture size at which face recognition performance plateaus. As expected, accuracy increased nonlinearly with spotlight size apertures. Analyses of Structural Similarity comparing the available information during spotlight and natural viewing conditions indicate that the Facespan-the minimum spatial extent of preserved facial information leading to comparable performance as in natural viewing-encompasses 7° of visual angle in our viewing conditions (size of the face stimulus: 15.6°; viewing distance: 70 cm), which represents 45% of the face. The present findings provide a benchmark for future investigations that will address if and how the Facespan is modulated by factors such as cultural, developmental, idiosyncratic, or task-related differences.

Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Ahmad Fayez

Transportation networks, wearable devices, energy systems, and the book you are reading now are all ubiquitous cyber-physical systems (CPS). These inherently uncertain systems combine physical phenomena with communication, data processing, control and optimization. Many CPSs are controlled and monitored by real-time control systems that use communication networks to transmit and receive data from systems modeled by physical processes. Existing studies have addressed a breadth of challenges related to the design of CPSs. However, there is a lack of studies on uncertain CPSs subject to dynamic unknown inputs and cyber-attacks---an artifact of the insertion of communication networks and the growing complexity of CPSs. The objective of this dissertation is to create secure, computational foundations for uncertain CPSs by establishing a framework to control, estimate and optimize the operation of these systems. With major emphasis on power networks, the dissertation deals with the design of secure computational methods for uncertain CPSs, focusing on three crucial issues---(1) cyber-security and risk-mitigation, (2) network-induced time-delays and perturbations and (3) the encompassed extreme time-scales. The dissertation consists of four parts. In the first part, we investigate dynamic state estimation (DSE) methods and rigorously examine the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed routines under dynamic attack-vectors and unknown inputs. In the second part, and utilizing high-frequency measurements in smart grids and the developed DSE methods in the first part, we present a risk mitigation strategy that minimizes the encountered threat levels, while ensuring the continual observability of the system through available, safe measurements. The developed methods in the first two parts rely on the assumption that the uncertain CPS is not experiencing time-delays, an assumption that might fail under certain conditions. To overcome this challenge, networked unknown input

An Exemplar-Model Account of Feature Inference from Uncertain Categorizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosofsky, Robert M.

2015-01-01

In a highly systematic literature, researchers have investigated the manner in which people make feature inferences in paradigms involving uncertain categorizations (e.g., Griffiths, Hayes, & Newell, 2012; Murphy & Ross, 1994, 2007, 2010a). Although researchers have discussed the implications of the results for models of categorization and…

Uncertain deduction and conditional reasoning

PubMed Central

Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Thompson, Valerie A.; Over, David E.

2015-01-01

There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of “uncertain deduction” should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks. PMID:25904888

Uncertain deduction and conditional reasoning.

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan St B T; Thompson, Valerie A; Over, David E

2015-01-01

There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of "uncertain deduction" should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks.

Extreme-Scale Stochastic Particle Tracing for Uncertain Unsteady Flow Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Hanqi; He, Wenbin; Seo, Sangmin

2016-11-13

We present an efficient and scalable solution to estimate uncertain transport behaviors using stochastic flow maps (SFM,) for visualizing and analyzing uncertain unsteady flows. SFM computation is extremely expensive because it requires many Monte Carlo runs to trace densely seeded particles in the flow. We alleviate the computational cost by decoupling the time dependencies in SFMs so that we can process adjacent time steps independently and then compose them together for longer time periods. Adaptive refinement is also used to reduce the number of runs for each location. We then parallelize over tasks—packets of particles in our design—to achieve highmore » efficiency in MPI/thread hybrid programming. Such a task model also enables CPU/GPU coprocessing. We show the scalability on two supercomputers, Mira (up to 1M Blue Gene/Q cores) and Titan (up to 128K Opteron cores and 8K GPUs), that can trace billions of particles in seconds.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE PAGES

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel; ...

2017-07-10

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

Interpreting null results from measurements with uncertain correlations: an info-gap approach.

PubMed

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2011-01-01

Null events—not detecting a pernicious agent—are the basis for declaring the agent is absent. Repeated nulls strengthen confidence in the declaration. However, correlations between observations are difficult to assess in many situations and introduce uncertainty in interpreting repeated nulls. We quantify uncertain correlations using an info-gap model, which is an unbounded family of nested sets of possible probabilities. An info-gap model is nonprobabilistic and entails no assumption about a worst case. We then evaluate the robustness, to uncertain correlations, of estimates of the probability of a null event. This is then the basis for evaluating a nonprobabilistic robustness-based confidence interval for the probability of a null. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Stability of uncertain impulsive complex-variable chaotic systems with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Zheng, Song

2015-09-01

In this paper, the robust exponential stabilization of uncertain impulsive complex-variable chaotic delayed systems is considered with parameters perturbation and delayed impulses. It is assumed that the considered complex-variable chaotic systems have bounded parametric uncertainties together with the state variables on the impulses related to the time-varying delays. Based on the theories of adaptive control and impulsive control, some less conservative and easily verified stability criteria are established for a class of complex-variable chaotic delayed systems with delayed impulses. Some numerical simulations are given to validate the effectiveness of the proposed criteria of impulsive stabilization for uncertain complex-variable chaotic delayed systems. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation in Linear Systems Featuring Correlated Uncertain Observations Coming from Multiple Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero-Águila, R.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.; Linares-Pérez, J.

2009-08-01

In this paper, the state least-squares linear estimation problem from correlated uncertain observations coming from multiple sensors is addressed. It is assumed that, at each sensor, the state is measured in the presence of additive white noise and that the uncertainty in the observations is characterized by a set of Bernoulli random variables which are only correlated at consecutive time instants. Assuming that the statistical properties of such variables are not necessarily the same for all the sensors, a recursive filtering algorithm is proposed, and the performance of the estimators is illustrated by a numerical simulation example wherein a signal is estimated from correlated uncertain observations coming from two sensors with different uncertainty characteristics.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique

PubMed Central

Hayford, Sarah R.; Agadjanian, Victor

2012-01-01

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related. PMID:26430294

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Hayford, Sarah R; Agadjanian, Victor

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of "don't know" or "up to God" as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related.

Face Adaptation Effects: Reviewing the Impact of Adapting Information, Time, and Transfer

PubMed Central

Strobach, Tilo; Carbon, Claus-Christian

2013-01-01

The ability to adapt is essential to live and survive in an ever-changing environment such as the human ecosystem. Here we review the literature on adaptation effects of face stimuli to give an overview of existing findings in this area, highlight gaps in its research literature, initiate new directions in face adaptation research, and help to design future adaptation studies. Furthermore, this review should lead to better understanding of the processing characteristics as well as the mental representations of face-relevant information. The review systematizes studies at a behavioral level in respect of a framework which includes three dimensions representing the major characteristics of studies in this field of research. These dimensions comprise (1) the specificity of adapting face information, e.g., identity, gender, or age aspects of the material to be adapted to (2) aspects of timing (e.g., the sustainability of adaptation effects) and (3) transfer relations between face images presented during adaptation and adaptation tests (e.g., images of the same or different identities). The review concludes with options for how to combine findings across different dimensions to demonstrate the relevance of our framework for future studies. PMID:23760550

Learning from the Past: Supporting Teaching through the "Facing the Past" History Project in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tibbitts, Felisa

2006-01-01

This article presents an innovative professional development project, "Facing the Past-Transforming Our Future," developed collaboratively by the Western Cape Educational Department, the Cape Town Holocaust Centre (CTHC), and the US-based teacher professional development organization Facing History and Ourselves (FHAO). "Facing the…

Libraries as iCentres: Helping Schools Face the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hough, Michael

2011-01-01

School librarians need to be proactive in identifying new ways to help students prepare for the world of the future. Students need relevant educational experiences that support emerging demands created by information and service based economies. The economies of Pacific Rim countries such as the USA, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Canada are…

75 FR 54802 - Requirement of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-09

... return. Corporations that prepare financial statements are required by generally accepted accounting principles to identify and quantify all uncertain tax positions as described in Financial Accounting..., including International Financial Reporting Standards and country-specific generally accepted accounting...

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwin A. Roehl, Jr.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

Managers of large river basins face conflicting needs for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting local economies for years. The Savannah River Basin’s coastal area contains municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent since the 1970s. There is a planned deepening of the harbor that includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity. The effectiveness of the flow-alteration features will only be known after they are constructed. One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to significantly reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen D. Handler; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Todd A. Ontl; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer...

Families in Troubled Times: Adapting to Change in Rural America. Social Institutions and Social Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conger, Rand D.; Elder, Glen H., Jr.

In Iowa in the 1980s, dreams of prosperity were suddenly replaced by economic nightmares as plummeting land values generated economic decline and dislocation in rural communities and individual lives. This book examines the experience of over 400 Iowa families who lived through the Great Farm Crisis and now face an uncertain future. Interviewed as…

Development of preference for conspecific faces in human infants.

PubMed

Sanefuji, Wakako; Wada, Kazuko; Yamamoto, Tomoka; Mohri, Ikuko; Taniike, Masako

2014-04-01

Previous studies have proposed that humans may be born with mechanisms that attend to conspecifics. However, as previous studies have relied on stimuli featuring human adults, it remains unclear whether infants attend only to adult humans or to the entire human species. We found that 1-month-old infants (n = 23) were able to differentiate between human and monkey infants' faces; however, they exhibited no preference for human infants' faces over monkey infants' faces (n = 24) and discriminated individual differences only within the category of human infants' faces (n = 30). We successfully replicated previous findings that 1-month-old infants (n = 42) preferred adult humans, even adults of other races, to adult monkeys. Further, by 3 months of age, infants (n = 55) preferred human faces to monkey faces with both infant and adult stimuli. Human infants' spontaneous preference for conspecific faces appears to be initially limited to conspecific adults and afterward extended to conspecific infants. Future research should attempt to determine whether preference for human adults results from some innate tendency to attend to conspecific adults or from the impact of early experiences with adults. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Faces in Context: A Review and Systematization of Contextual Influences on Affective Face Processing

PubMed Central

Wieser, Matthias J.; Brosch, Tobias

2012-01-01

Facial expressions are of eminent importance for social interaction as they convey information about other individuals’ emotions and social intentions. According to the predominant “basic emotion” approach, the perception of emotion in faces is based on the rapid, automatic categorization of prototypical, universal expressions. Consequently, the perception of facial expressions has typically been investigated using isolated, de-contextualized, static pictures of facial expressions that maximize the distinction between categories. However, in everyday life, an individual’s face is not perceived in isolation, but almost always appears within a situational context, which may arise from other people, the physical environment surrounding the face, as well as multichannel information from the sender. Furthermore, situational context may be provided by the perceiver, including already present social information gained from affective learning and implicit processing biases such as race bias. Thus, the perception of facial expressions is presumably always influenced by contextual variables. In this comprehensive review, we aim at (1) systematizing the contextual variables that may influence the perception of facial expressions and (2) summarizing experimental paradigms and findings that have been used to investigate these influences. The studies reviewed here demonstrate that perception and neural processing of facial expressions are substantially modified by contextual information, including verbal, visual, and auditory information presented together with the face as well as knowledge or processing biases already present in the observer. These findings further challenge the assumption of automatic, hardwired categorical emotion extraction mechanisms predicted by basic emotion theories. Taking into account a recent model on face processing, we discuss where and when these different contextual influences may take place, thus outlining potential avenues in future

Faces in context: a review and systematization of contextual influences on affective face processing.

PubMed

Wieser, Matthias J; Brosch, Tobias

2012-01-01

Facial expressions are of eminent importance for social interaction as they convey information about other individuals' emotions and social intentions. According to the predominant "basic emotion" approach, the perception of emotion in faces is based on the rapid, automatic categorization of prototypical, universal expressions. Consequently, the perception of facial expressions has typically been investigated using isolated, de-contextualized, static pictures of facial expressions that maximize the distinction between categories. However, in everyday life, an individual's face is not perceived in isolation, but almost always appears within a situational context, which may arise from other people, the physical environment surrounding the face, as well as multichannel information from the sender. Furthermore, situational context may be provided by the perceiver, including already present social information gained from affective learning and implicit processing biases such as race bias. Thus, the perception of facial expressions is presumably always influenced by contextual variables. In this comprehensive review, we aim at (1) systematizing the contextual variables that may influence the perception of facial expressions and (2) summarizing experimental paradigms and findings that have been used to investigate these influences. The studies reviewed here demonstrate that perception and neural processing of facial expressions are substantially modified by contextual information, including verbal, visual, and auditory information presented together with the face as well as knowledge or processing biases already present in the observer. These findings further challenge the assumption of automatic, hardwired categorical emotion extraction mechanisms predicted by basic emotion theories. Taking into account a recent model on face processing, we discuss where and when these different contextual influences may take place, thus outlining potential avenues in future research.

Faces of the Future: School Counselors as Cultural Mediators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portman, Tarrell Awe Agahe

2009-01-01

Twenty years ago, futurists examined the changing role of the school counselor and forecasted what the 21st-century school counselor would need to know. This article forecasts the future of school counseling in the next 20 years by focusing on expected diversity of K-12 students. Speculation on student enrollment based on projected trends and…

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Facing Aggression: Cues Differ for Female versus Male Faces

PubMed Central

Geniole, Shawn N.; Keyes, Amanda E.; Mondloch, Catherine J.; Carré, Justin M.; McCormick, Cheryl M.

2012-01-01

The facial width-to-height ratio (face ratio), is a sexually dimorphic metric associated with actual aggression in men and with observers' judgements of aggression in male faces. Here, we sought to determine if observers' judgements of aggression were associated with the face ratio in female faces. In three studies, participants rated photographs of female and male faces on aggression, femininity, masculinity, attractiveness, and nurturing. In Studies 1 and 2, for female and male faces, judgements of aggression were associated with the face ratio even when other cues in the face related to masculinity were controlled statistically. Nevertheless, correlations between the face ratio and judgements of aggression were smaller for female than for male faces (F1,36 = 7.43, p = 0.01). In Study 1, there was no significant relationship between judgements of femininity and of aggression in female faces. In Study 2, the association between judgements of masculinity and aggression was weaker in female faces than for male faces in Study 1. The weaker association in female faces may be because aggression and masculinity are stereotypically male traits. Thus, in Study 3, observers rated faces on nurturing (a stereotypically female trait) and on femininity. Judgements of nurturing were associated with femininity (positively) and masculinity (negatively) ratings in both female and male faces. In summary, the perception of aggression differs in female versus male faces. The sex difference was not simply because aggression is a gendered construct; the relationships between masculinity/femininity and nurturing were similar for male and female faces even though nurturing is also a gendered construct. Masculinity and femininity ratings are not associated with aggression ratings nor with the face ratio for female faces. In contrast, all four variables are highly inter-correlated in male faces, likely because these cues in male faces serve as “honest signals”. PMID:22276184

Facing aggression: cues differ for female versus male faces.

PubMed

Geniole, Shawn N; Keyes, Amanda E; Mondloch, Catherine J; Carré, Justin M; McCormick, Cheryl M

2012-01-01

The facial width-to-height ratio (face ratio), is a sexually dimorphic metric associated with actual aggression in men and with observers' judgements of aggression in male faces. Here, we sought to determine if observers' judgements of aggression were associated with the face ratio in female faces. In three studies, participants rated photographs of female and male faces on aggression, femininity, masculinity, attractiveness, and nurturing. In Studies 1 and 2, for female and male faces, judgements of aggression were associated with the face ratio even when other cues in the face related to masculinity were controlled statistically. Nevertheless, correlations between the face ratio and judgements of aggression were smaller for female than for male faces (F(1,36) = 7.43, p = 0.01). In Study 1, there was no significant relationship between judgements of femininity and of aggression in female faces. In Study 2, the association between judgements of masculinity and aggression was weaker in female faces than for male faces in Study 1. The weaker association in female faces may be because aggression and masculinity are stereotypically male traits. Thus, in Study 3, observers rated faces on nurturing (a stereotypically female trait) and on femininity. Judgements of nurturing were associated with femininity (positively) and masculinity (negatively) ratings in both female and male faces. In summary, the perception of aggression differs in female versus male faces. The sex difference was not simply because aggression is a gendered construct; the relationships between masculinity/femininity and nurturing were similar for male and female faces even though nurturing is also a gendered construct. Masculinity and femininity ratings are not associated with aggression ratings nor with the face ratio for female faces. In contrast, all four variables are highly inter-correlated in male faces, likely because these cues in male faces serve as "honest signals".

Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

2008-07-01

In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB.

Disordered high-frequency oscillation in face processing in schizophrenia patients

PubMed Central

Liu, Miaomiao; Pei, Guangying; Peng, Yinuo; Wang, Changming; Yan, Tianyi; Wu, Jinglong

2018-01-01

Abstract Schizophrenia is a complex disorder characterized by marked social dysfunctions, but the neural mechanism underlying this deficit is unknown. To investigate whether face-specific perceptual processes are influenced in schizophrenia patients, both face detection and configural analysis were assessed in normal individuals and schizophrenia patients by recording electroencephalogram (EEG) data. Here, a face processing model was built based on the frequency oscillations, and the evoked power (theta, alpha, and beta bands) and the induced power (gamma bands) were recorded while the subjects passively viewed face and nonface images presented in upright and inverted orientations. The healthy adults showed a significant face-specific effect in the alpha, beta, and gamma bands, and an inversion effect was observed in the gamma band in the occipital lobe and right temporal lobe. Importantly, the schizophrenia patients showed face-specific deficits in the low-frequency beta and gamma bands, and the face inversion effect in the gamma band was absent from the occipital lobe. All these results revealed face-specific processing in patients due to the disorder of high-frequency EEG, providing additional evidence to enrich future studies investigating neural mechanisms and serving as a marked diagnostic basis. PMID:29419668

An Idea for Generating Diversity Conversations: Physics Jeopardy and the Future Faces of Physics Kit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rand, Kendra; White, Gary

2008-10-01

Is there a way to engage typical physics undergraduates in a conversation about under-represented groups in physics that doesn't result in rolled-eyes or fingers-in-the-ears? The Society of Physics Students (SPS) has begun an experiment using a jeopardy-like game at physics meetings in an attempt to generate conversations about diversity. The physics jeopardy game is part of a "Future Faces of Physics" kit that includes a variety of materials that are of interest to those wanting to address under-represented audiences in physics, such as video clips exhibiting common physics words in sign language, tactile representations of the lunar surface for blind students, guidelines regarding lab procedures for the wheel-chair bound, and the book, Einstein on Race and Racism with a challenge letter directed at SPS chapters from the authors. While attempts to assess the impact of the game are modest, we report anecdotally some of the qualitative features seen in the discussions when the game is played. We also strive to indulge in a few physics jeopardy game moments to give a sense of how the game works. If you are hosting a meeting, large or small, and would like to receive this kit for use at your meeting, notify Kendra Rand, SPS Program Coordinator at krand@aip.org.

The rise of artificial intelligence and the uncertain future for physicians.

PubMed

Krittanawong, C

2018-02-01

Physicians in everyday clinical practice are under pressure to innovate faster than ever because of the rapid, exponential growth in healthcare data. "Big data" refers to extremely large data sets that cannot be analyzed or interpreted using traditional data processing methods. In fact, big data itself is meaningless, but processing it offers the promise of unlocking novel insights and accelerating breakthroughs in medicine-which in turn has the potential to transform current clinical practice. Physicians can analyze big data, but at present it requires a large amount of time and sophisticated analytic tools such as supercomputers. However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in the era of big data could assist physicians in shortening processing times and improving the quality of patient care in clinical practice. This editorial provides a glimpse at the potential uses of AI technology in clinical practice and considers the possibility of AI replacing physicians, perhaps altogether. Physicians diagnose diseases based on personal medical histories, individual biomarkers, simple scores (e.g., CURB-65, MELD), and their physical examinations of individual patients. In contrast, AI can diagnose diseases based on a complex algorithm using hundreds of biomarkers, imaging results from millions of patients, aggregated published clinical research from PubMed, and thousands of physician's notes from electronic health records (EHRs). While AI could assist physicians in many ways, it is unlikely to replace physicians in the foreseeable future. Let us look at the emerging uses of AI in medicine. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Facing reality: The future of the US nuclear weapons complex

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-01-01

Facing Reality is a collaboration by 15 authors from environmental and grass-roots groups. The authors bluntly conclude that whether the inertia, habit, or material interest, the nuclear weapons establishment has proven itself incapable of genuine reform.' They therefore call for government agencies other than the Department of Energy to manage the tasks of decontamination and decommissioning. Just a partial list of what needs to be done to clean up the DOE's mess is daunting: closing, decommissioning, and decontaminating production facilities, dismantling thousands of nuclear warheads, safely storing dangerous radioactive materials, identifying alternative employment for weapons specialists, conducting meaningful health studiesmore » of workers and citizens exposed to radiation, and providng compensation for the victims of the nuclear buildup.« less

The many faces of research on face perception.

PubMed

Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M

2011-06-12

Face perception is fundamental to human social interaction. Many different types of important information are visible in faces and the processes and mechanisms involved in extracting this information are complex and can be highly specialized. The importance of faces has long been recognized by a wide range of scientists. Importantly, the range of perspectives and techniques that this breadth has brought to face perception research has, in recent years, led to many important advances in our understanding of face processing. The articles in this issue on face perception each review a particular arena of interest in face perception, variously focusing on (i) the social aspects of face perception (attraction, recognition and emotion), (ii) the neural mechanisms underlying face perception (using brain scanning, patient data, direct stimulation of the brain, visual adaptation and single-cell recording), and (iii) comparative aspects of face perception (comparing adult human abilities with those of chimpanzees and children). Here, we introduce the central themes of the issue and present an overview of the articles.

The IT Advantage Assessment Model: Applying an Expanded Value Chain Model to Academia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Walter L.; Stylianou, Antonis C.

2004-01-01

Academia faces an uncertain future as the 21st century unfolds. New demands, discerning students, increased competition from non-traditional competitors are just a few of the forces demanding a response. The use of information technology (IT) in academia has not kept pace with its use in industry. What has been lacking is a model for the strategic…

Forests in the balance: linking tradition and technology in landscape mosaics

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall; Geoffrey C. Smith

2007-01-01

The future of forests around the world is uncertain: forests are being cleared and the lands converted to other uses, while existing forests face many challenges from a variety of sources. The pressures on forests come from two usually opposing perspectives, timber production and wildlife conservation. This special issue volume attempts to bridge between these two...

SPA face lift: SMAS plication-anchoring.

PubMed

Mottura, A Aldo

2011-08-01

A variation of the superficial musculoaponeurotic system (SMAS) plication called SPA face lift is here described. An axial line and then two medial and lateral parallel lines are penciled on the skin from the lateral canthus to the earlobe to show the future plication area. The undermining zone is delimited 1 cm beyond the medial line. In face- and neck-lifting, such marks extend vertically to the neck. Once the skin is undermined up to the delimiting marks, the three lines are penciled again on the fat layer, and a running lock suture is used for plication, with big superficial bites between the two distal lines. In fatty faces, a strip of fat is removed along the axial line to avoid bulging that can be seen through the skin. Because the undermining is limited, minor swelling occurs, and the postoperative recovery is shorter and faster. The same three lines can be marked in the contralateral side or can differ in cases of asymmetry. This report describes 244 face-lifts without any facial nerve problems. The author managed five hematoma cases in which surgery to the neck was performed. Three patients had to be touched up for insufficient skin tension. The SPA technique is consistent and easy to learn.

Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, S. S.

1984-01-01

The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.

Single-axis gyroscopic motion with uncertain angular velocity about spin axis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, S. N.

1977-01-01

A differential game approach is presented for studying the response of a gyro by treating the controlled angular velocity about the input axis as the evader, and the bounded but uncertain angular velocity about the spin axis as the pursuer. When the uncertain angular velocity about the spin axis desires to force the gyro to saturation a differential game problem with two terminal surfaces results, whereas when the evader desires to attain the equilibrium state the usual game with single terminal manifold arises. A barrier, delineating the capture zone (CZ) in which the gyro can attain saturation and the escape zone (EZ) in which the evader avoids saturation is obtained. The CZ is further delineated into two subregions such that the states in each subregion can be forced on a definite target manifold. The application of the game theoretic approach to Control Moment Gyro is briefly discussed.

Face-space: A unifying concept in face recognition research.

PubMed

Valentine, Tim; Lewis, Michael B; Hills, Peter J

2016-10-01

The concept of a multidimensional psychological space, in which faces can be represented according to their perceived properties, is fundamental to the modern theorist in face processing. Yet the idea was not clearly expressed until 1991. The background that led to the development of face-space is explained, and its continuing influence on theories of face processing is discussed. Research that has explored the properties of the face-space and sought to understand caricature, including facial adaptation paradigms, is reviewed. Face-space as a theoretical framework for understanding the effect of ethnicity and the development of face recognition is evaluated. Finally, two applications of face-space in the forensic setting are discussed. From initially being presented as a model to explain distinctiveness, inversion, and the effect of ethnicity, face-space has become a central pillar in many aspects of face processing. It is currently being developed to help us understand adaptation effects with faces. While being in principle a simple concept, face-space has shaped, and continues to shape, our understanding of face perception.

On the particular vulnerability of face recognition to aging: a review of three hypotheses

PubMed Central

Boutet, Isabelle; Taler, Vanessa; Collin, Charles A.

2015-01-01

Age-related face recognition deficits are characterized by high false alarms to unfamiliar faces, are not as pronounced for other complex stimuli, and are only partially related to general age-related impairments in cognition. This paper reviews some of the underlying processes likely to be implicated in theses deficits by focusing on areas where contradictions abound as a means to highlight avenues for future research. Research pertaining to the three following hypotheses is presented: (i) perceptual deterioration, (ii) encoding of configural information, and (iii) difficulties in recollecting contextual information. The evidence surveyed provides support for the idea that all three factors are likely to contribute, under certain conditions, to the deficits in face recognition seen in older adults. We discuss how these different factors might interact in the context of a generic framework of the different stages implicated in face recognition. Several suggestions for future investigations are outlined. PMID:26347670

Robust Stabilization of Uncertain Systems Based on Energy Dissipation Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Sandeep

1996-01-01

Robust stability conditions obtained through generalization of the notion of energy dissipation in physical systems are discussed in this report. Linear time-invariant (LTI) systems which dissipate energy corresponding to quadratic power functions are characterized in the time-domain and the frequency-domain, in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMls) and algebraic Riccati equations (ARE's). A novel characterization of strictly dissipative LTI systems is introduced in this report. Sufficient conditions in terms of dissipativity and strict dissipativity are presented for (1) stability of the feedback interconnection of dissipative LTI systems, (2) stability of dissipative LTI systems with memoryless feedback nonlinearities, and (3) quadratic stability of uncertain linear systems. It is demonstrated that the framework of dissipative LTI systems investigated in this report unifies and extends small gain, passivity, and sector conditions for stability. Techniques for selecting power functions for characterization of uncertain plants and robust controller synthesis based on these stability results are introduced. A spring-mass-damper example is used to illustrate the application of these methods for robust controller synthesis.

Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Large-Scale Systems With Unknown Dead Zone.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Tao, Gang

2016-08-01

In this paper, an adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is proposed and analyzed for a class of uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems with unknown dead zone and external disturbances. To tackle the unknown nonlinear interaction functions in the large-scale system, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is employed to approximate them. To further handle the unknown approximation errors and the effects of the unknown dead zone and external disturbances, integrated as the compounded disturbances, the corresponding disturbance observers are developed for their estimations. Based on the outputs of the RBFNN and the disturbance observer, the adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is designed for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems by using a decentralized backstepping technique. The closed-loop stability of the adaptive control system is rigorously proved via Lyapunov analysis and the satisfactory tracking performance is achieved under the integrated effects of unknown dead zone, actuator fault, and unknown external disturbances. Simulation results of a mass-spring-damper system are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems.

Uncertain translation, uncertain benefit and uncertain risk: ethical challenges facing first-in-human trials of induced pluripotent stem (ips) cells.

PubMed

Fung, Ronald K F; Kerridge, Ian H

2013-02-01

The discovery of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells in 2006 was heralded as a major breakthrough in stem cell research. Since then, progress in iPS cell technology has paved the way towards clinical application, particularly cell replacement therapy, which has refueled debate on the ethics of stem cell research. However, much of the discourse has focused on questions of moral status and potentiality, overlooking the ethical issues which are introduced by the clinical testing of iPS cell replacement therapy. First-in-human trials, in particular, raise a number of ethical concerns including informed consent, subject recruitment and harm minimisation as well as the inherent uncertainty and risks which are involved in testing medical procedures on humans for the first time. These issues, while a feature of any human research, become more complex in the case of iPS cell therapy, given the seriousness of the potential risks, the unreliability of available animal models, the vulnerability of the target patient group, and the high stakes of such an intensely public area of science. Our paper will present a detailed case study of iPS cell replacement therapy for Parkinson's disease to highlight these broader ethical and epistemological concerns. If we accept that iPS cell technology is fraught with challenges which go far beyond merely refuting the potentiality of the stem cell line, we conclude that iPS cell research should not replace, but proceed alongside embryonic and adult somatic stem cell research to promote cross-fertilisation of knowledge and better clinical outcomes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Broad Ligament Perivascular Epithelioid Cell Tumor (PEComa) of Uncertain Malignant Potential.

PubMed

Mathew, Mary; Nayal, Bhavna; Rao, Lakshmi; Nagel, Bhawna

2016-01-01

PEComas are uncommon mesenchymal tumors often involving the pelvic organs. They have an unpredictable behavior. Accurate diagnosis and long-term follow-up is therefore essential in these patients. We report this case of PEComa of uncertain malignant potential in an unusual location with excellent prognosis.

Baseload coal investment decisions under uncertain carbon legislation.

PubMed

Bergerson, Joule A; Lave, Lester B

2007-05-15

More than 50% of electricity in the U.S. is generated by coal. The U.S. has large coal resources, the cheapest fuel in most areas. Coal fired power plants are likely to continue to provide much of U.S. electricity. However, the type of power plant that should be built is unclear. Technology can reduce pollutant discharges and capture and sequester the CO2 from coal-fired generation. The U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005 provides incentives for large scale commercial deployment of Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) systems (e.g., loan guarantees and project tax credits). This analysis examines whether a new coal plant should be Pulverized Coal (PC) or IGCC. Do stricter emissions standards (PM, SO2, NOx, Hg) justify the higher costs of IGCC over PC? How does potential future carbon legislation affect the decision to add carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology? Finally, can the impact of uncertain carbon legislation be minimized? We find that SO2, NOx, PM, and Hg emission standards would have to be far more stringent than twice current standards to justify the increased costs of the IGCC system. A C02 tax less than $29/ton would lead companies to continuing to choose PC, paying the tax for emitted CO2. The earlier a decision-maker believes the carbon tax will be imposed and the higher the tax, the more likely companies will choose IGCC w/CCS. Having government announce the date and level of a carbon tax would promote more sensible decisions, but government would have to use a tax or subsidy to induce companies to choose the technology that is best for society.

Inventing Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Glenn; Vosevich, Mary; O'Connor, Michael; Whitefield, Joe; Medlin, E. Lander

2011-01-01

Glenn Smith, APPA's Vice President for Professional Development, had the honor of introducing the closing panel discussion at APPA's annual conference in Boston last July--a discussion centered on the theme "Inventing Our Future." Previous general plenary sessions and related breakout sessions had explored the challenges people face in these…

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Recognition profile of emotions in natural and virtual faces.

PubMed

Dyck, Miriam; Winbeck, Maren; Leiberg, Susanne; Chen, Yuhan; Gur, Ruben C; Gur, Rurben C; Mathiak, Klaus

2008-01-01

Computer-generated virtual faces become increasingly realistic including the simulation of emotional expressions. These faces can be used as well-controlled, realistic and dynamic stimuli in emotion research. However, the validity of virtual facial expressions in comparison to natural emotion displays still needs to be shown for the different emotions and different age groups. Thirty-two healthy volunteers between the age of 20 and 60 rated pictures of natural human faces and faces of virtual characters (avatars) with respect to the expressed emotions: happiness, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, and neutral. Results indicate that virtual emotions were recognized comparable to natural ones. Recognition differences in virtual and natural faces depended on specific emotions: whereas disgust was difficult to convey with the current avatar technology, virtual sadness and fear achieved better recognition results than natural faces. Furthermore, emotion recognition rates decreased for virtual but not natural faces in participants over the age of 40. This specific age effect suggests that media exposure has an influence on emotion recognition. Virtual and natural facial displays of emotion may be equally effective. Improved technology (e.g. better modelling of the naso-labial area) may lead to even better results as compared to trained actors. Due to the ease with which virtual human faces can be animated and manipulated, validated artificial emotional expressions will be of major relevance in future research and therapeutic applications.

Intelligent robust control for uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems and its application to robotic systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural network-based) robust controls for a large class of uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems. This class of systems can be perturbed by plant uncertainties, unmodeled perturbations, and external disturbances. Nonlinear H(infinity) control technique incorporated with adaptive control technique and VSC technique is employed to construct the intelligent robust stabilization controller such that an H(infinity) control is achieved. The problem of the robust tracking control design for uncertain robotic systems is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed robust stabilization control scheme. Therefore, an intelligent robust tracking controller for uncertain robotic systems in the presence of high-degree uncertainties can easily be implemented. Its solution requires only to solve a linear algebraic matrix inequality and a satisfactorily transient and asymptotical tracking performance is guaranteed. A simulation example is made to confirm the performance of the developed control algorithms.

Seeing faces is necessary for face-domain formation.

PubMed

Arcaro, Michael J; Schade, Peter F; Vincent, Justin L; Ponce, Carlos R; Livingstone, Margaret S

2017-10-01

Here we report that monkeys raised without exposure to faces did not develop face domains, but did develop domains for other categories and did show normal retinotopic organization, indicating that early face deprivation leads to a highly selective cortical processing deficit. Therefore, experience must be necessary for the formation (or maintenance) of face domains. Gaze tracking revealed that control monkeys looked preferentially at faces, even at ages prior to the emergence of face domains, but face-deprived monkeys did not, indicating that face looking is not innate. A retinotopic organization is present throughout the visual system at birth, so selective early viewing behavior could bias category-specific visual responses toward particular retinotopic representations, thereby leading to domain formation in stereotyped locations in inferotemporal cortex, without requiring category-specific templates or biases. Thus, we propose that environmental importance influences viewing behavior, viewing behavior drives neuronal activity, and neuronal activity sculpts domain formation.

Adaptive fixed-time control for cluster synchronisation of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqin; Lu, Xiaobo; Cai, Guoliang; Cai, Shuiming

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on the cluster synchronisation problem of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances under an adaptive fixed-time control strategy. To begin with, complex dynamical networks with community structure which are subject to uncertain disturbances are taken into account. Then, a novel adaptive control strategy combined with fixed-time techniques is proposed to guarantee the nodes in the communities to desired states in a settling time. In addition, the stability of complex error systems is theoretically proved based on Lyapunov stability theorem. At last, two examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive fixed-time control.

Finding Hope in the Face-to-Face.

PubMed

Edgoose, Jennifer Y C; Edgoose, Julian M

2017-05-01

What does it mean to look into the face of a patient who looks back? Face-to-face encounters are at the heart of the patient-clinician relationship but their singular significance is often lost amid the demands of today's high-tech, metric-driven health care systems. Using the framework provided by the philosopher and Holocaust survivor Emmanuel Levinas, the authors explore the unique responsibility and potential for hope found only in face-to-face encounters. Revisiting this most fundamental attribute of medicine is likely our greatest chance to reclaim who we are as clinicians and why we do what we do. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

A modified hybrid uncertain analysis method for dynamic response field of the LSOAAC with random and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zi, Bin; Zhou, Bin

2016-07-01

For the prediction of dynamic response field of the luffing system of an automobile crane (LSOAAC) with random and interval parameters, a hybrid uncertain model is introduced. In the hybrid uncertain model, the parameters with certain probability distribution are modeled as random variables, whereas, the parameters with lower and upper bounds are modeled as interval variables instead of given precise values. Based on the hybrid uncertain model, the hybrid uncertain dynamic response equilibrium equation, in which different random and interval parameters are simultaneously included in input and output terms, is constructed. Then a modified hybrid uncertain analysis method (MHUAM) is proposed. In the MHUAM, based on random interval perturbation method, the first-order Taylor series expansion and the first-order Neumann series, the dynamic response expression of the LSOAAC is developed. Moreover, the mathematical characteristics of extrema of bounds of dynamic response are determined by random interval moment method and monotonic analysis technique. Compared with the hybrid Monte Carlo method (HMCM) and interval perturbation method (IPM), numerical results show the feasibility and efficiency of the MHUAM for solving the hybrid LSOAAC problems. The effects of different uncertain models and parameters on the LSOAAC response field are also investigated deeply, and numerical results indicate that the impact made by the randomness in the thrust of the luffing cylinder F is larger than that made by the gravity of the weight in suspension Q . In addition, the impact made by the uncertainty in the displacement between the lower end of the lifting arm and the luffing cylinder a is larger than that made by the length of the lifting arm L .

Seeing faces is necessary for face-patch formation

PubMed Central

Arcaro, Michael J.; Schade, Peter F.; Vincent, Justin L.; Ponce, Carlos R.; Livingstone, Margaret S.

2017-01-01

Here we report that monkeys raised without exposure to faces did not develop face patches, but did develop domains for other categories, and did show normal retinotopic organization, indicating that early face deprivation leads to a highly selective cortical processing deficit. Therefore experience must be necessary for the formation, or maintenance, of face domains. Gaze tracking revealed that control monkeys looked preferentially at faces, even at ages prior to the emergence of face patches, but face-deprived monkeys did not, indicating that face looking is not innate. A retinotopic organization is present throughout the visual system at birth, so selective early viewing behavior could bias category-specific visual responses towards particular retinotopic representations, thereby leading to domain formation in stereotyped locations in IT, without requiring category-specific templates or biases. Thus we propose that environmental importance influences viewing behavior, viewing behavior drives neuronal activity, and neuronal activity sculpts domain formation. PMID:28869581

Bayesian Face Recognition and Perceptual Narrowing in Face-Space

PubMed Central

Balas, Benjamin

2012-01-01

During the first year of life, infants’ face recognition abilities are subject to “perceptual narrowing,” the end result of which is that observers lose the ability to distinguish previously discriminable faces (e.g. other-race faces) from one another. Perceptual narrowing has been reported for faces of different species and different races, in developing humans and primates. Though the phenomenon is highly robust and replicable, there have been few efforts to model the emergence of perceptual narrowing as a function of the accumulation of experience with faces during infancy. The goal of the current study is to examine how perceptual narrowing might manifest as statistical estimation in “face space,” a geometric framework for describing face recognition that has been successfully applied to adult face perception. Here, I use a computer vision algorithm for Bayesian face recognition to study how the acquisition of experience in face space and the presence of race categories affect performance for own and other-race faces. Perceptual narrowing follows from the establishment of distinct race categories, suggesting that the acquisition of category boundaries for race is a key computational mechanism in developing face expertise. PMID:22709406

Interdisciplinary Vertical Integration: The Future of Biomechanics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gregor, Robert J.

2008-01-01

The field of biomechanics has grown rapidly in the past 30 years in both size and complexity. As a result, the term might mean different things to different people. This article addresses the issues facing the field in the form of challenges biomechanists face in the future. Because the field is so diverse, strength within the different areas of…

Contributions of individual face features to face discrimination.

PubMed

Logan, Andrew J; Gordon, Gael E; Loffler, Gunter

2017-08-01

Faces are highly complex stimuli that contain a host of information. Such complexity poses the following questions: (a) do observers exhibit preferences for specific information? (b) how does sensitivity to individual face parts compare? These questions were addressed by quantifying sensitivity to different face features. Discrimination thresholds were determined for synthetic faces under the following conditions: (i) 'full face': all face features visible; (ii) 'isolated feature': single feature presented in isolation; (iii) 'embedded feature': all features visible, but only one feature modified. Mean threshold elevations for isolated features, relative to full-faces, were 0.84x, 1.08, 2.12, 3.34, 4.07 and 4.47 for head-shape, hairline, nose, mouth, eyes and eyebrows respectively. Hence, when two full faces can be discriminated at threshold, the difference between the eyes is about four times less than what is required when discriminating between isolated eyes. In all cases, sensitivity was higher when features were presented in isolation than when they were embedded within a face context (threshold elevations of 0.94x, 1.74, 2.67, 2.90, 5.94 and 9.94). This reveals a specific pattern of sensitivity to face information. Observers are between two and four times more sensitive to external than internal features. The pattern for internal features (higher sensitivity for the nose, compared to mouth, eyes and eyebrows) is consistent with lower sensitivity for those parts affected by facial dynamics (e.g. facial expressions). That isolated features are easier to discriminate than embedded features supports a holistic face processing mechanism which impedes extraction of information about individual features from full faces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rediscovery and uncertain future of high-elevation Haleakala carabid beetles (Coleoptera)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Gillespie, Rosemary G.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Liebherr, James K.

2005-01-01

Recent biotic surveys in subalpine shrubland on Haleakala¯ Volcano, Maui, Hawai‘i, have resulted in rediscovery of several species of carabid beetles previously known only from their nineteenth-century type specimens. Blackburnia lenta (Sharp), described from specimens collected just below Haleakala¯ summit in 1894, was found at lower elevational sites ranging from 2,400 to 2,750 m. Mecyclothorax rusticus Sharp, last seen in 1896, and M. nubicola (Blackburn), collected only in 1878, were also rediscovered in that vicinity. Recent collections of B. lenta contradict the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s previous classification of this species as one likely to be extinct. Nevertheless, B. lenta’s known distribution comprises only 145 ha within an elevational zone that is bounded above and below by unicolonial populations of the invasive alien Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr). The known recent collections of M. rusticus and M. nubicola also occurred outside the distributional range of the Argentine ant. Mature eggs held in the lateral oviducts of B. lenta females averaged 1.4 the volume of the largest eggs previously reported among 13 species of Blackburnia. We hypothesize that the giant eggs of B. lenta result from selective forces favoring large, well-nourished developing and hatched first-instar larvae, consistent with a patchy distribution of suitable microhabitat and prey in the subalpine Haleakala¯ landscape. The specialized life history of B. lenta, and coincidence of distributional limits of the three rediscovered carabid species with range limits of the Argentine ant populations suggest that all would be jeopardized by future distributional expansion of Argentine ant. These intersecting phenomena compel us to conclude that B. lenta, M. nubicola, and M. rusticus are appropriate candidates for I.U.C.N. threatened species designation, pending further studies of their geographic ranges and historical trends in abundance.

Stabilization of a Quadrotor With Uncertain Suspended Load Using Sliding Mode Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Xu; Liu, Rui; Zhang, Jiucai

2016-08-21

The stability and trajectory control of a quadrotor carrying a suspended load with a fixed known mass has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the load mass is not always known beforehand in practical applications. This mass uncertainty brings uncertain disturbances to the quadrotor system, causing existing controllers to have a worse performance or to be collapsed. To improve the quadrotor's stability in this situation, we investigate the impacts of the uncertain load mass on the quadrotor. By comparing the simulation results of two controllers -- the proportional-derivative (PD) controller and the sliding mode controller (SMC) driven by amore » sliding mode disturbance of observer (SMDO), the quadrotor's performance is verified to be worse as the uncertainty increases. The simulation results also show a controller with stronger robustness against disturbances is better for practical applications.« less

Cross-modal face recognition using multi-matcher face scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yufeng; Blasch, Erik

2015-05-01

The performance of face recognition can be improved using information fusion of multimodal images and/or multiple algorithms. When multimodal face images are available, cross-modal recognition is meaningful for security and surveillance applications. For example, a probe face is a thermal image (especially at nighttime), while only visible face images are available in the gallery database. Matching a thermal probe face onto the visible gallery faces requires crossmodal matching approaches. A few such studies were implemented in facial feature space with medium recognition performance. In this paper, we propose a cross-modal recognition approach, where multimodal faces are cross-matched in feature space and the recognition performance is enhanced with stereo fusion at image, feature and/or score level. In the proposed scenario, there are two cameras for stereo imaging, two face imagers (visible and thermal images) in each camera, and three recognition algorithms (circular Gaussian filter, face pattern byte, linear discriminant analysis). A score vector is formed with three cross-matched face scores from the aforementioned three algorithms. A classifier (e.g., k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, binomial logical regression [BLR]) is trained then tested with the score vectors by using 10-fold cross validations. The proposed approach was validated with a multispectral stereo face dataset from 105 subjects. Our experiments show very promising results: ACR (accuracy rate) = 97.84%, FAR (false accept rate) = 0.84% when cross-matching the fused thermal faces onto the fused visible faces by using three face scores and the BLR classifier.

Meta-analytic review of the development of face discrimination in infancy: Face race, face gender, infant age, and methodology moderate face discrimination.

PubMed

Sugden, Nicole A; Marquis, Alexandra R

2017-11-01

Infants show facility for discriminating between individual faces within hours of birth. Over the first year of life, infants' face discrimination shows continued improvement with familiar face types, such as own-race faces, but not with unfamiliar face types, like other-race faces. The goal of this meta-analytic review is to provide an effect size for infants' face discrimination ability overall, with own-race faces, and with other-race faces within the first year of life, how this differs with age, and how it is influenced by task methodology. Inclusion criteria were (a) infant participants aged 0 to 12 months, (b) completing a human own- or other-race face discrimination task, (c) with discrimination being determined by infant looking. Our analysis included 30 works (165 samples, 1,926 participants participated in 2,623 tasks). The effect size for infants' face discrimination was small, 6.53% greater than chance (i.e., equal looking to the novel and familiar). There was a significant difference in discrimination by race, overall (own-race, 8.18%; other-race, 3.18%) and between ages (own-race: 0- to 4.5-month-olds, 7.32%; 5- to 7.5-month-olds, 9.17%; and 8- to 12-month-olds, 7.68%; other-race: 0- to 4.5-month-olds, 6.12%; 5- to 7.5-month-olds, 3.70%; and 8- to 12-month-olds, 2.79%). Multilevel linear (mixed-effects) models were used to predict face discrimination; infants' capacity to discriminate faces is sensitive to face characteristics including race, gender, and emotion as well as the methods used, including task timing, coding method, and visual angle. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Faciotopy—A face-feature map with face-like topology in the human occipital face area

PubMed Central

Henriksson, Linda; Mur, Marieke; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2015-01-01

The occipital face area (OFA) and fusiform face area (FFA) are brain regions thought to be specialized for face perception. However, their intrinsic functional organization and status as cortical areas with well-defined boundaries remains unclear. Here we test these regions for “faciotopy”, a particular hypothesis about their intrinsic functional organisation. A faciotopic area would contain a face-feature map on the cortical surface, where cortical patches represent face features and neighbouring patches represent features that are physically neighbouring in a face. The faciotopy hypothesis is motivated by the idea that face regions might develop from a retinotopic protomap and acquire their selectivity for face features through natural visual experience. Faces have a prototypical configuration of features, are usually perceived in a canonical upright orientation, and are frequently fixated in particular locations. To test the faciotopy hypothesis, we presented images of isolated face features at fixation to subjects during functional magnetic resonance imaging. The responses in V1 were best explained by low-level image properties of the stimuli. OFA, and to a lesser degree FFA, showed evidence for faciotopic organization. When a single patch of cortex was estimated for each face feature, the cortical distances between the feature patches reflected the physical distance between the features in a face. Faciotopy would be the first example, to our knowledge, of a cortical map reflecting the topology, not of a part of the organism itself (its retina in retinotopy, its body in somatotopy), but of an external object of particular perceptual significance. PMID:26235800

Faciotopy-A face-feature map with face-like topology in the human occipital face area.

PubMed

Henriksson, Linda; Mur, Marieke; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2015-11-01

The occipital face area (OFA) and fusiform face area (FFA) are brain regions thought to be specialized for face perception. However, their intrinsic functional organization and status as cortical areas with well-defined boundaries remains unclear. Here we test these regions for "faciotopy", a particular hypothesis about their intrinsic functional organisation. A faciotopic area would contain a face-feature map on the cortical surface, where cortical patches represent face features and neighbouring patches represent features that are physically neighbouring in a face. The faciotopy hypothesis is motivated by the idea that face regions might develop from a retinotopic protomap and acquire their selectivity for face features through natural visual experience. Faces have a prototypical configuration of features, are usually perceived in a canonical upright orientation, and are frequently fixated in particular locations. To test the faciotopy hypothesis, we presented images of isolated face features at fixation to subjects during functional magnetic resonance imaging. The responses in V1 were best explained by low-level image properties of the stimuli. OFA, and to a lesser degree FFA, showed evidence for faciotopic organization. When a single patch of cortex was estimated for each face feature, the cortical distances between the feature patches reflected the physical distance between the features in a face. Faciotopy would be the first example, to our knowledge, of a cortical map reflecting the topology, not of a part of the organism itself (its retina in retinotopy, its body in somatotopy), but of an external object of particular perceptual significance. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Emotional Expression and Heart Rate in High-Risk Infants during the Face-To-Face/Still-Face

PubMed Central

Mattson, Whitney I.; Ekas, Naomi V.; Lambert, Brittany; Tronick, Ed; Lester, Barry M.; Messinger, Daniel S.

2013-01-01

In infants, eye constriction—the Duchenne marker—and mouth opening appear to index the intensity of both positive and negative facial expressions. We combined eye constriction and mouth opening that co-occurred with smiles and cry-faces (respectively, the prototypic expressions of infant joy and distress) to measure emotional expression intensity. Expression intensity and heart rate were measured throughout the Face-to-Face/Still Face (FFSF) in a sample of infants with prenatal cocaine exposure who were at risk for developmental difficulties. Smiles declined and cry-faces increased in the still-face episode, but the distribution of eye constriction and mouth opening in smiles and cry-faces did not differ across episodes of the FFSF. As time elapsed in the still face episode potential indices of intensity increased, cry-faces were more likely to be accompanied by eye constriction and mouth opening. During cry-faces there were also moderately stable individual differences in the quantity of eye constriction and mouth opening. Infant heart rate was higher during cry-faces and lower during smiles, but did not vary with intensity of expression or by episode. In sum, infants express more intense negative affect as the still-face progresses, but do not show clear differences in expressive intensity between episodes of the FFSF. PMID:24095807

Allocating conservation resources between areas where persistence of a species is uncertain.

PubMed

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Chadès, Iadine; McCarthy, Michael A; Linkie, Matthew; Possingham, Hugh P

2011-04-01

threatened species. This study illustrates an approach to allocating limited resources to threatened species where the conservation status of the species in different areas is uncertain. The results highlight the importance of including partial observability in future models of optimal species management when the species of concern is cryptic in nature.

Voicing on Virtual and Face to Face Discussion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yamat, Hamidah

2013-01-01

This paper presents and discusses findings of a study conducted on pre-service teachers' experiences in virtual and face to face discussions. Technology has brought learning nowadays beyond the classroom context or time zone. The learning context and process no longer rely solely on face to face communications in the presence of a teacher.…

Academic Futures: Prospects for Post-Secondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shere, Waris, Ed.; Duhamel, Ronald, Ed.

Present trends and future directions in postsecondary education in Canada and the United States are addressed in 15 essays and an introduction by Ron Duhamel. Authors and titles are as follows: "Traditional Values in the Contemporary University" (Robin H. Farquhar); "Facing the Future" (R. J. Duhamel); "Challenges to the…

Teacher Education Futures: Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aubusson, Peter; Schuck, Sandy

2013-01-01

Education is facing significant political and contextual challenges that will impact its future. This study employs a Delphi methodology to investigate teacher educators' views of current trends and their consequences for teacher education futures. Interviews were conducted with a sample of expert teacher educators drawn from eight countries. This…

Face to face with emotion: holistic face processing is modulated by emotional state.

PubMed

Curby, Kim M; Johnson, Kareem J; Tyson, Alyssa

2012-01-01

Negative emotions are linked with a local, rather than global, visual processing style, which may preferentially facilitate feature-based, relative to holistic, processing mechanisms. Because faces are typically processed holistically, and because social contexts are prime elicitors of emotions, we examined whether negative emotions decrease holistic processing of faces. We induced positive, negative, or neutral emotions via film clips and measured holistic processing before and after the induction: participants made judgements about cued parts of chimeric faces, and holistic processing was indexed by the interference caused by task-irrelevant face parts. Emotional state significantly modulated face-processing style, with the negative emotion induction leading to decreased holistic processing. Furthermore, self-reported change in emotional state correlated with changes in holistic processing. These results contrast with general assumptions that holistic processing of faces is automatic and immune to outside influences, and they illustrate emotion's power to modulate socially relevant aspects of visual perception.

Learning Compact Binary Face Descriptor for Face Recognition.

PubMed

Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Xiuzhuang; Zhou, Jie

2015-10-01

Binary feature descriptors such as local binary patterns (LBP) and its variations have been widely used in many face recognition systems due to their excellent robustness and strong discriminative power. However, most existing binary face descriptors are hand-crafted, which require strong prior knowledge to engineer them by hand. In this paper, we propose a compact binary face descriptor (CBFD) feature learning method for face representation and recognition. Given each face image, we first extract pixel difference vectors (PDVs) in local patches by computing the difference between each pixel and its neighboring pixels. Then, we learn a feature mapping to project these pixel difference vectors into low-dimensional binary vectors in an unsupervised manner, where 1) the variance of all binary codes in the training set is maximized, 2) the loss between the original real-valued codes and the learned binary codes is minimized, and 3) binary codes evenly distribute at each learned bin, so that the redundancy information in PDVs is removed and compact binary codes are obtained. Lastly, we cluster and pool these binary codes into a histogram feature as the final representation for each face image. Moreover, we propose a coupled CBFD (C-CBFD) method by reducing the modality gap of heterogeneous faces at the feature level to make our method applicable to heterogeneous face recognition. Extensive experimental results on five widely used face datasets show that our methods outperform state-of-the-art face descriptors.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Spouses' reflections on implantable cardioverter defibrillator treatment with focus on the future and the end-of-life: a qualitative content analysis.

PubMed

Fluur, Christina; Bolse, Kärstin; Strömberg, Anna; Thylén, Ingela

2014-08-01

To explore future reflections of spouses living with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipient with focus on the end-of-life phase in an anticipated palliative phase. A history of or risk for life-threatening arrhythmias may require an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. Despite the life-saving capacity of the device, eventually life will come to an end. As discussion about preferences of shock therapy at end-of-life phase seldom takes place in advance, the implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipients may face defibrillating shocks in the final weeks of their lives, adding to stress and anxiety in patients and their families. Qualitative study with in-depth interviews analysed with a content analysis. Interviews were performed with 18 spouses of medically stable implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipients during 2011-2012. The spouses described how they dealt with changes in life and an uncertain future following the implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation. Six subcategories conceptualized the spouses' concerns: Aspiring for involvement; Managing an altered relationship; Being attentive to warning signs; Worries for deterioration in the partner's health; Waiting for the defibrillating shock; and Death is veiled in silence. Despite the partner's serious state of health; terminal illness or death and the role of the device was seldom discussed with healthcare professionals or the implantable cardioverter defibrillator recipient. Open and honest communication was requested as important to support coping with an unpredictable life situation and to reduce worries and uncertainty about the future and end-of-life. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cooking the Books: What Counts as Literacy for Young Children in a Public Library?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Helen Victoria

2018-01-01

At a time when government funding cuts mean that public libraries face an uncertain future and need to make sure they stay relevant to young users and their families, this paper explores what counts as literacy for young children in a public library in a town in the East Midlands, UK. It is based on a study which adopted an ethnographic approach,…

Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan: Reuse, Demand Reduction, Energy and Transboundary Approaches to Assure Future Water Supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. A.; El-Naser, H.; Hagan, R. E.; Hijazi, A.

2001-05-01

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 170 cubic meters per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands for water. Given the natural climatological conditions, demographic pressure, and transboundary nature of water resources, all renewable water resources of suitable quality are being exploited and some non-renewable aquifers are being depleted. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the level of the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with groundwater discharge oasis wetlands that have been seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US\\$ 4-5 per cubic meter. Integrated water resources management (IWRM) that incorporates factors external to the 'water sector' as conventionally defined will help to assure sustainable future water supplies in Jordan. This paper examines four IWRM approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with

Recognition Profile of Emotions in Natural and Virtual Faces

PubMed Central

Dyck, Miriam; Winbeck, Maren; Leiberg, Susanne; Chen, Yuhan; Gur, Rurben C.; Mathiak, Klaus

2008-01-01

Background Computer-generated virtual faces become increasingly realistic including the simulation of emotional expressions. These faces can be used as well-controlled, realistic and dynamic stimuli in emotion research. However, the validity of virtual facial expressions in comparison to natural emotion displays still needs to be shown for the different emotions and different age groups. Methodology/Principal Findings Thirty-two healthy volunteers between the age of 20 and 60 rated pictures of natural human faces and faces of virtual characters (avatars) with respect to the expressed emotions: happiness, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, and neutral. Results indicate that virtual emotions were recognized comparable to natural ones. Recognition differences in virtual and natural faces depended on specific emotions: whereas disgust was difficult to convey with the current avatar technology, virtual sadness and fear achieved better recognition results than natural faces. Furthermore, emotion recognition rates decreased for virtual but not natural faces in participants over the age of 40. This specific age effect suggests that media exposure has an influence on emotion recognition. Conclusions/Significance Virtual and natural facial displays of emotion may be equally effective. Improved technology (e.g. better modelling of the naso-labial area) may lead to even better results as compared to trained actors. Due to the ease with which virtual human faces can be animated and manipulated, validated artificial emotional expressions will be of major relevance in future research and therapeutic applications. PMID:18985152

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

When Advisors' True Intentions Are in Question. How Do Bank Customers Cope with Uncertainty in Financial Consultancies?

PubMed

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva; Mühlberger, Christina

2017-01-01

When making financial decisions bank customers are confronted with two types of uncertainty: first, return on investments is uncertain and there is a risk of losing money. Second, customers cannot be certain about their financial advisor's true intentions. This might decrease customers' willingness to cooperate with advisors. However, the uncertainty management model and fairness heuristic theory predict that in uncertain situations customers are willing to cooperate with financial advisors when they perceive fairness. In the current study, we investigated how perceived fairness in the twofold uncertain situations increased people's intended future cooperation with an advisor. We asked customers of financial consultancies about their experienced uncertainty regarding both the investment decision and the advisor's intentions. Moreover, we asked them about their perceived fairness, as well as their intention to cooperate with the advisor in the future. A three-way moderation analysis showed that customers who faced high uncertainty regarding the investment decision and high uncertainty regarding the advisor's true intentions indicated the lowest intended cooperation with the advisor but high fairness increased their cooperation. Interestingly, when people were only uncertain about the advisor's intentions (but certain about the decision) they indicated less cooperation than when they were only uncertain about the decision (but certain about the advisor's intentions). A mediated moderation analysis revealed that this relationship was explained by customers' lower trust in their advisors.

Emotional expression and heart rate in high-risk infants during the face-to-face/still-face.

PubMed

Mattson, Whitney I; Ekas, Naomi V; Lambert, Brittany; Tronick, Ed; Lester, Barry M; Messinger, Daniel S

2013-12-01

In infants, eye constriction-the Duchenne marker-and mouth opening appear to index the intensity of both positive and negative facial expressions. We combined eye constriction and mouth opening that co-occurred with smiles and cry-faces (respectively, the prototypic expressions of infant joy and distress) to measure emotional expression intensity. Expression intensity and heart rate were measured throughout the face-to-face/still-face (FFSF) in a sample of infants with prenatal cocaine exposure who were at risk for developmental difficulties. Smiles declined and cry-faces increased in the still-face episode, but the distribution of eye constriction and mouth opening in smiles and cry-faces did not differ across episodes of the FFSF. As time elapsed in the still face episode potential indices of intensity increased, cry-faces were more likely to be accompanied by eye constriction and mouth opening. During cry-faces there were also moderately stable individual differences in the quantity of eye constriction and mouth opening. Infant heart rate was higher during cry-faces and lower during smiles, but did not vary with intensity of expression or by episode. In sum, infants express more intense negative affect as the still-face progresses, but do not show clear differences in expressive intensity between episodes of the FFSF. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Face-n-Food: Gender Differences in Tuning to Faces.

PubMed

Pavlova, Marina A; Scheffler, Klaus; Sokolov, Alexander N

2015-01-01

Faces represent valuable signals for social cognition and non-verbal communication. A wealth of research indicates that women tend to excel in recognition of facial expressions. However, it remains unclear whether females are better tuned to faces. We presented healthy adult females and males with a set of newly created food-plate images resembling faces (slightly bordering on the Giuseppe Arcimboldo style). In a spontaneous recognition task, participants were shown a set of images in a predetermined order from the least to most resembling a face. Females not only more readily recognized the images as a face (they reported resembling a face on images, on which males still did not), but gave on overall more face responses. The findings are discussed in the light of gender differences in deficient face perception. As most neuropsychiatric, neurodevelopmental and psychosomatic disorders characterized by social brain abnormalities are sex specific, the task may serve as a valuable tool for uncovering impairments in visual face processing.

Face-n-Food: Gender Differences in Tuning to Faces

PubMed Central

Pavlova, Marina A.; Scheffler, Klaus; Sokolov, Alexander N.

2015-01-01

Faces represent valuable signals for social cognition and non-verbal communication. A wealth of research indicates that women tend to excel in recognition of facial expressions. However, it remains unclear whether females are better tuned to faces. We presented healthy adult females and males with a set of newly created food-plate images resembling faces (slightly bordering on the Giuseppe Arcimboldo style). In a spontaneous recognition task, participants were shown a set of images in a predetermined order from the least to most resembling a face. Females not only more readily recognized the images as a face (they reported resembling a face on images, on which males still did not), but gave on overall more face responses. The findings are discussed in the light of gender differences in deficient face perception. As most neuropsychiatric, neurodevelopmental and psychosomatic disorders characterized by social brain abnormalities are sex specific, the task may serve as a valuable tool for uncovering impairments in visual face processing. PMID:26154177

The Caledonian face test: A new test of face discrimination.

PubMed

Logan, Andrew J; Wilkinson, Frances; Wilson, Hugh R; Gordon, Gael E; Loffler, Gunter

2016-02-01

This study aimed to develop a clinical test of face perception which is applicable to a wide range of patients and can capture normal variability. The Caledonian face test utilises synthetic faces which combine simplicity with sufficient realism to permit individual identification. Face discrimination thresholds (i.e. minimum difference between faces required for accurate discrimination) were determined in an "odd-one-out" task. The difference between faces was controlled by an adaptive QUEST procedure. A broad range of face discrimination sensitivity was determined from a group (N=52) of young adults (mean 5.75%; SD 1.18; range 3.33-8.84%). The test is fast (3-4 min), repeatable (test-re-test r(2)=0.795) and demonstrates a significant inversion effect. The potential to identify impairments of face discrimination was evaluated by testing LM who reported a lifelong difficulty with face perception. While LM's impairment for two established face tests was close to the criterion for significance (Z-scores of -2.20 and -2.27) for the Caledonian face test, her Z-score was -7.26, implying a more than threefold higher sensitivity. The new face test provides a quantifiable and repeatable assessment of face discrimination ability. The enhanced sensitivity suggests that the Caledonian face test may be capable of detecting more subtle impairments of face perception than available tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Face-Lift Satisfaction Using the FACE-Q.

PubMed

Sinno, Sammy; Schwitzer, Jonathan; Anzai, Lavinia; Thorne, Charles H

2015-08-01

Face lifting is one of the most common operative procedures for facial aging and perhaps the procedure most synonymous with plastic surgery in the minds of the lay public, but no verifiable documentation of patient satisfaction exists in the literature. This study is the first to examine face-lift outcomes and patient satisfaction using a validated questionnaire. One hundred five patients undergoing a face lift performed by the senior author (C.H.T.) using a high, extended-superficial musculoaponeurotic system with submental platysma approximation technique were asked to complete anonymously the FACE-Q by e-mail. FACE-Q scores were assessed for each domain (range, 0 to 100), with higher scores indicating greater satisfaction with appearance or superior quality of life. Fifty-three patients completed the FACE-Q (50.5 percent response rate). Patients demonstrated high satisfaction with facial appearance (mean ± SD, 80.7 ± 22.3), and quality of life, including social confidence (90.4 ± 16.6), psychological well-being (92.8 ± 14.3), and early life impact (92.2 ± 16.4). Patients also reported extremely high satisfaction with their decision to undergo face lifting (90.5 ± 15.9). On average, patients felt they appeared 6.9 years younger than their actual age. Patients were most satisfied with the appearance of their nasolabial folds (86.2 ± 18.5), cheeks (86.1 ± 25.4), and lower face/jawline (86.0 ± 20.6), compared with their necks (78.1 ± 25.6) and area under the chin (67.9 ± 32.3). Patients who responded in this study were extremely satisfied with their decision to undergo face lifting and the outcomes and quality of life following the procedure.

A Face Inversion Effect without a Face

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandman, Talia; Yovel, Galit

2012-01-01

Numerous studies have attributed the face inversion effect (FIE) to configural processing of internal facial features in upright but not inverted faces. Recent findings suggest that face mechanisms can be activated by faceless stimuli presented in the context of a body. Here we asked whether faceless stimuli with or without body context may induce…

75 FR 78160 - Requirement of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-15

... amendments to the Income Tax Regulations (26 CFR part 1) under section 6012 relating to the returns of income... every person liable for income tax to make the returns required by regulation. Section 6012 requires... corporations to file a schedule disclosing uncertain tax positions related to the tax return as required by the...

Dread of uncertain pain: An event-related potential study

PubMed Central

Huang, Yujing; Shang, Qian; Dai, Shenyi; Ma, Qingguo

2017-01-01

Humans experience more stress about uncertain situations than certain situations. However, the neural mechanism underlying the uncertainty of a negative stimulus has not been determined. In the present study, event-related potential was recorded to examine neural responses during the dread of unpredictable pain. We used a cueing paradigm in which predictable cues were always followed by electric shocks, unpredictable cues by electric shocks at a 50/50 ratio and safe cues by no electric shock. Visual analogue scales following electric shocks were presented to quantify subjective anxiety levels. The behavioral results showed that unpredictable cues evoked high-level anxiety compared with predictable cues in both painful and unpainful stimulation conditions. More importantly, the ERPs results revealed that unpredictable cues elicited a larger P200 at parietal sites than predictable cues. In addition, unpredictable cues evoked larger P200 compared with safe cues at frontal electrodes and compared with predictable cues at parietal electrodes. In addition, larger P3b and LPP were observed during perception of safe cues compared with predictable cues at frontal and central electrodes. The similar P3b effect was also revealed in the left sites. The present study underlined that the uncertain dread of pain was associated with threat appraisal process in pain system. These findings on early event-related potentials were significant for a neural marker and development of therapeutic interventions. PMID:28832607

Face to Face Communications in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Malcolm M.; Davon, Bonnie P. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

It has been reported that human face-to-face communications in space are compromised by facial edema, variations in the orientations of speakers and listeners, and background noises that are encountered in the shuttle and in space stations. To date, nearly all reports have been anecdotal or subjective, in the form of post-flight interviews or questionnaires; objective and quantitative data are generally lacking. Although it is acknowledged that efficient face-to-face communications are essential for astronauts to work safely and effectively, specific ways in which the space environment interferes with non-linguistic communication cues are poorly documented. Because we have only a partial understanding of how non-linguistic communication cues may change with mission duration, it is critically important to obtain objective data, and to evaluate these cues under well-controlled experimental conditions.

School Leaders Facing Real Change: Shifting Geography, Uncertain Paths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louis, Karen Seashore

2003-01-01

A central problem for school leadership in the United States is to create settings in which success for students motivates teachers. Meeting this objective is becoming more difficult as teachers, except the most brilliant, struggle to cope with the diversity of students in a changing socio-economic climate and a context in which there is a…

[Treatment of aerobic vaginitis and clinically uncertain causes of vulvovaginal discomfort].

PubMed

Cepický, P; Malina, J; Kuzelová, M

2003-11-01

The treatment of clinically uncertain conditions of vaginal discomforts with a mixed preparation of nifuratel + nystatin (Macmiror complex) and the relation of uncertain conditions to aerobic vaginitis. A prospective study. Gynecology-Obstetrics Outpatient Department LEVRET Ltd., AescuLab Ltd., Laboratory of Microbiology, Prague. 50 women with vaginal discomfort, causes of which had not been clarified by gynecological examination, determination of pH and the amine test, were examined by vaginal smears using microscopy. The results were evaluated in relation to aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or in combination with other nosological units. The authors also evaluated results of therapy by oral nifuratel (Macmiror tbl) 3 x 200 mg daily and a vaginal combined preparation containing nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU (Macmiror complex 500 glo vag) for the period of 7 days. In 50 women candida was demonstrated 24 times, presence of key cells 11 times, lactobacillus nine times with more than 50 in the field, six women were affected by aerobic vaginitis. In all these cases the pH was 4.8 or higher, leukocytes were significantly represented in all cases (> 15 in the field), as well as gram-negative bacteria and/or cocci (> 30 in the field), indicating a combined picture of mycosis, anaerobic vaginosis or lactobacillosis with aerobic vaginitis. The therapy was successful in all cases, the relapse of complaints during one month occurred in three cases. Aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or with anaerobic vaginosis, mycosis or lactobacillosis is frequently concealed under clinically uncertain pictures of vulvo-vaginal discomfort. The therapy by a combination of nifurated 3 x 200 mg orally together with the combined vaginal preparation nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU for the period of 7 days exerts high effect and a low number of relapses.

a Modified Genetic Algorithm for Finding Fuzzy Shortest Paths in Uncertain Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, A. A.; Delavar, M. R.

2016-06-01

In realistic network analysis, there are several uncertainties in the measurements and computation of the arcs and vertices. These uncertainties should also be considered in realizing the shortest path problem (SPP) due to the inherent fuzziness in the body of expert's knowledge. In this paper, we investigated the SPP under uncertainty to evaluate our modified genetic strategy. We improved the performance of genetic algorithm (GA) to investigate a class of shortest path problems on networks with vague arc weights. The solutions of the uncertain SPP with considering fuzzy path lengths are examined and compared in detail. As a robust metaheuristic, GA algorithm is modified and evaluated to tackle the fuzzy SPP (FSPP) with uncertain arcs. For this purpose, first, a dynamic operation is implemented to enrich the exploration/exploitation patterns of the conventional procedure and mitigate the premature convergence of GA technique. Then, the modified GA (MGA) strategy is used to resolve the FSPP. The attained results of the proposed strategy are compared to those of GA with regard to the cost, quality of paths and CPU times. Numerical instances are provided to demonstrate the success of the proposed MGA-FSPP strategy in comparison with GA. The simulations affirm that not only the proposed technique can outperform GA, but also the qualities of the paths are effectively improved. The results clarify that the competence of the proposed GA is preferred in view of quality quantities. The results also demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently be utilized to handle FSPP in uncertain networks.

The Bone in the Throat: Some Uncertain Thoughts on Baroque Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacLure, Maggie

2006-01-01

The paper conjures some possibilities for a baroque method in qualitative educational research. It draws on work across a range of disciplines that has detected a recurrence of the baroque in the philosophical and literary texts of modernity. A baroque method would resist clarity, mastery and the single point of view, be radically uncertain about…

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Produce the Same Types of 'Laugh Faces' when They Emit Laughter and when They Are Silent.

PubMed

Davila-Ross, Marina; Jesus, Goncalo; Osborne, Jade; Bard, Kim A

2015-01-01

The ability to flexibly produce facial expressions and vocalizations has a strong impact on the way humans communicate, as it promotes more explicit and versatile forms of communication. Whereas facial expressions and vocalizations are unarguably closely linked in primates, the extent to which these expressions can be produced independently in nonhuman primates is unknown. The present work, thus, examined if chimpanzees produce the same types of facial expressions with and without accompanying vocalizations, as do humans. Forty-six chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) were video-recorded during spontaneous play with conspecifics at the Chimfunshi Wildlife Orphanage. ChimpFACS was applied, a standardized coding system to measure chimpanzee facial movements, based on FACS developed for humans. Data showed that the chimpanzees produced the same 14 configurations of open-mouth faces when laugh sounds were present and when they were absent. Chimpanzees, thus, produce these facial expressions flexibly without being morphologically constrained by the accompanying vocalizations. Furthermore, the data indicated that the facial expression plus vocalization and the facial expression alone were used differently in social play, i.e., when in physical contact with the playmates and when matching the playmates' open-mouth faces. These findings provide empirical evidence that chimpanzees produce distinctive facial expressions independently from a vocalization, and that their multimodal use affects communicative meaning, important traits for a more explicit and versatile way of communication. As it is still uncertain how human laugh faces evolved, the ChimpFACS data were also used to empirically examine the evolutionary relation between open-mouth faces with laugh sounds of chimpanzees and laugh faces of humans. The ChimpFACS results revealed that laugh faces of humans must have gradually emerged from laughing open-mouth faces of ancestral apes. This work examines the main evolutionary

A novel thermal face recognition approach using face pattern words

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yufeng

2010-04-01

A reliable thermal face recognition system can enhance the national security applications such as prevention against terrorism, surveillance, monitoring and tracking, especially at nighttime. The system can be applied at airports, customs or high-alert facilities (e.g., nuclear power plant) for 24 hours a day. In this paper, we propose a novel face recognition approach utilizing thermal (long wave infrared) face images that can automatically identify a subject at both daytime and nighttime. With a properly acquired thermal image (as a query image) in monitoring zone, the following processes will be employed: normalization and denoising, face detection, face alignment, face masking, Gabor wavelet transform, face pattern words (FPWs) creation, face identification by similarity measure (Hamming distance). If eyeglasses are present on a subject's face, an eyeglasses mask will be automatically extracted from the querying face image, and then masked with all comparing FPWs (no more transforms). A high identification rate (97.44% with Top-1 match) has been achieved upon our preliminary face dataset (of 39 subjects) from the proposed approach regardless operating time and glasses-wearing condition.e

The role of Chinese face in the perpetration of dating partner violence.

PubMed

Chan, Ko Ling

2012-03-01

This study explored the associations between the perpetration of partner violence and two types of face orientation-protective and acquisitive-in Chinese societies. Data from a convenience sample of 3,388 university students from Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing were analyzed. The participants completed the Protective and Acquisitive Face Orientation (PAFO) Scale Short Form and the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS2) to measure their face orientations and experience of perpetrating violence against their dating partner. Acquisitive face orientation (AFO) was positively associated with the self-reported perpetration of physical and psychological partner violence. No significant associations were found between protective face orientation (PFO) and partner violence perpetration. Gender differences were found across all types of dating violence. City of residence, age, and SES were also associated with partner violence in specific ways. The findings gave insights on the possible mechanisms between partner violence and the concept of face to be explored in future research.

Face time: educating face transplant candidates.

PubMed

Lamparello, Brooke M; Bueno, Ericka M; Diaz-Siso, Jesus Rodrigo; Sisk, Geoffroy C; Pomahac, Bohdan

2013-01-01

Face transplantation is the innovative application of microsurgery and immunology to restore appearance and function to those with severe facial disfigurements. Our group aims to establish a multidisciplinary education program that can facilitate informed consent and build a strong knowledge base in patients to enhance adherence to medication regimes, recovery, and quality of life. We analyzed handbooks from our institution's solid organ transplant programs to identify topics applicable to face transplant patients. The team identified unique features of face transplantation that warrant comprehensive patient education. We created a 181-page handbook to provide subjects interested in pursuing transplantation with a written source of information on the process and team members and to address concerns they may have. While the handbook covers a wide range of topics, it is easy to understand and visually appealing. Face transplantation has many unique aspects that must be relayed to the patients pursuing this novel therapy. Since candidates lack third-party support groups and programs, the transplant team must provide an extensive educational component to enhance this complex process. As face transplantation continues to develop, programs must create sound education programs that address patients' needs and concerns to facilitate optimal care.

Facing the Future: Education and Equity for Females and Males.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Martha

This publication examines the changes in the roles of women and men and what these changes mean for the future of schools--for educational quality and opportunity and for educational decision making. Women comprise more than 44% of the paid work force. It is estimated that by the year 2000, if not before, work force participation rates of women…

Adaptive Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Multi-Input Multi-Output Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Chengyu (Inventor); Hovakimyan, Naira (Inventor); Xargay, Enric (Inventor)

2014-01-01

Systems and methods of adaptive control for uncertain nonlinear multi-input multi-output systems in the presence of significant unmatched uncertainty with assured performance are provided. The need for gain-scheduling is eliminated through the use of bandwidth-limited (low-pass) filtering in the control channel, which appropriately attenuates the high frequencies typically appearing in fast adaptation situations and preserves the robustness margins in the presence of fast adaptation.

From face processing to face recognition: Comparing three different processing levels.

PubMed

Besson, G; Barragan-Jason, G; Thorpe, S J; Fabre-Thorpe, M; Puma, S; Ceccaldi, M; Barbeau, E J

2017-01-01

Verifying that a face is from a target person (e.g. finding someone in the crowd) is a critical ability of the human face processing system. Yet how fast this can be performed is unknown. The 'entry-level shift due to expertise' hypothesis suggests that - since humans are face experts - processing faces should be as fast - or even faster - at the individual than at superordinate levels. In contrast, the 'superordinate advantage' hypothesis suggests that faces are processed from coarse to fine, so that the opposite pattern should be observed. To clarify this debate, three different face processing levels were compared: (1) a superordinate face categorization level (i.e. detecting human faces among animal faces), (2) a face familiarity level (i.e. recognizing famous faces among unfamiliar ones) and (3) verifying that a face is from a target person, our condition of interest. The minimal speed at which faces can be categorized (∼260ms) or recognized as familiar (∼360ms) has largely been documented in previous studies, and thus provides boundaries to compare our condition of interest to. Twenty-seven participants were included. The recent Speed and Accuracy Boosting procedure paradigm (SAB) was used since it constrains participants to use their fastest strategy. Stimuli were presented either upright or inverted. Results revealed that verifying that a face is from a target person (minimal RT at ∼260ms) was remarkably fast but longer than the face categorization level (∼240ms) and was more sensitive to face inversion. In contrast, it was much faster than recognizing a face as familiar (∼380ms), a level severely affected by face inversion. Face recognition corresponding to finding a specific person in a crowd thus appears achievable in only a quarter of a second. In favor of the 'superordinate advantage' hypothesis or coarse-to-fine account of the face visual hierarchy, these results suggest a graded engagement of the face processing system across processing

Incidental findings of uncertain significance: To know or not to know--that is not the question.

PubMed

Hofmann, Bjørn

2016-02-13

Although the "right not to know" is well established in international regulations, it has been heavily debated. Ubiquitous results from extended exome and genome analysis have challenged the right not to know. American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) Recommendations urge to inform about incidental findings that pretend to be accurate and actionable. However, ample clinical cases raise the question whether these criteria are met. Many incidental findings are of uncertain significance (IFUS). The eager to feedback information appears to enter the field of IFUS and thereby threaten the right not to know. This makes it imperative to investigate the arguments for and against a right not to know for IFUS. This article investigates how the various arguments for and against a right not to know hold for IFUS. The main investigated arguments are: hypothetical utilitarianism, the right-based argument, the feasibility argument, the value of knowledge argument, the argument from lost significance, the empirical argument, the duty to disclose argument, the avoiding harm argument; the argument from principle, from autonomy, from privacy, as well as the argument from the right to an open future. The analysis shows that both sides in the debate have exaggerated the importance of incidental findings. Opponents of a right not to know have exaggerated the importance of IFUS, while proponents have exaggerated the need to be protected from something that is not knowledge. Hence, to know or not to know is not the question. The question is whether we should be able to stay ignorant of incidental findings of uncertain significance, if we want to. The answer is yes: As long as the information is not accurate and/or actionable: ignorance is bliss. When answering questions that are not asked, we need to think twice.

Conjunction Faces Alter Confidence-Accuracy Relations for Old Faces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinitz, Mark Tippens; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

2017-01-01

The authors used a state-trace methodology to investigate the informational dimensions used to recognize old and conjunction faces (made by combining parts of separately studied faces). Participants in 3 experiments saw faces presented for 1 s each. They then received a recognition test; faces were presented for varying brief durations and…

Bayesian Face Recognition and Perceptual Narrowing in Face-Space

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balas, Benjamin

2012-01-01

During the first year of life, infants' face recognition abilities are subject to "perceptual narrowing", the end result of which is that observers lose the ability to distinguish previously discriminable faces (e.g. other-race faces) from one another. Perceptual narrowing has been reported for faces of different species and different races, in…

Holistic face training enhances face processing in developmental prosopagnosia

PubMed Central

Cohan, Sarah; Nakayama, Ken

2014-01-01

Prosopagnosia has largely been regarded as an untreatable disorder. However, recent case studies using cognitive training have shown that it is possible to enhance face recognition abilities in individuals with developmental prosopagnosia. Our goal was to determine if this approach could be effective in a larger population of developmental prosopagnosics. We trained 24 developmental prosopagnosics using a 3-week online face-training program targeting holistic face processing. Twelve subjects with developmental prosopagnosia were assessed before and after training, and the other 12 were assessed before and after a waiting period, they then performed the training, and were then assessed again. The assessments included measures of front-view face discrimination, face discrimination with view-point changes, measures of holistic face processing, and a 5-day diary to quantify potential real-world improvements. Compared with the waiting period, developmental prosopagnosics showed moderate but significant overall training-related improvements on measures of front-view face discrimination. Those who reached the more difficult levels of training (‘better’ trainees) showed the strongest improvements in front-view face discrimination and showed significantly increased holistic face processing to the point of being similar to that of unimpaired control subjects. Despite challenges in characterizing developmental prosopagnosics’ everyday face recognition and potential biases in self-report, results also showed modest but consistent self-reported diary improvements. In summary, we demonstrate that by using cognitive training that targets holistic processing, it is possible to enhance face perception across a group of developmental prosopagnosics and further suggest that those who improved the most on the training task received the greatest benefits. PMID:24691394

For Illegal College Students, an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horwedel, Dina M.

2006-01-01

With almost two million undocumented children in school and an estimated 65,000 graduating from high school every year, higher education is becoming the new frontier in the immigration debate. In 1982, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the children of illegal immigrants have a right to a free K-12 education. However, the court never extended that…

Natural gas hydrates; vast resource, uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collett, T.S.

2001-01-01

Gas hydrates are naturally occurring icelike solids in which water molecules trap gas molecules in a cagelike structure known as a clathrate. Although many gases form hydrates in nature, methane hydrate is by far the most common; methane is the most abundant natural gas. The volume of carbon contained in methane hydrates worldwide is estimated to be twice the amount contained in all fossil fuels on Earth, including coal.

The Uncertain Future of the Central City.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternlieb, George; Hughes, James W.

This paper describes the decline and polarization of American cities into two separate and coterminous systems: the city of the poor, characterized by the function of redistribution (i.e., public welfare benefits); and the city of the elite, a city of information processing, economic facilitation, and consumption. Demographic trends and social and…

The complex duration perception of emotional faces: effects of face direction.

PubMed

Kliegl, Katrin M; Limbrecht-Ecklundt, Kerstin; Dürr, Lea; Traue, Harald C; Huckauf, Anke

2015-01-01

The perceived duration of emotional face stimuli strongly depends on the expressed emotion. But, emotional faces also differ regarding a number of other features like gaze, face direction, or sex. Usually, these features have been controlled by only using pictures of female models with straight gaze and face direction. Doi and Shinohara (2009) reported that an overestimation of angry faces could only be found when the model's gaze was oriented toward the observer. We aimed at replicating this effect for face direction. Moreover, we explored the effect of face direction on the duration perception sad faces. Controlling for the sex of the face model and the participant, female and male participants rated the duration of neutral, angry, and sad face stimuli of both sexes photographed from different perspectives in a bisection task. In line with current findings, we report a significant overestimation of angry compared to neutral face stimuli that was modulated by face direction. Moreover, the perceived duration of sad face stimuli did not differ from that of neutral faces and was not influenced by face direction. Furthermore, we found that faces of the opposite sex appeared to last longer than those of the same sex. This outcome is discussed with regards to stimulus parameters like the induced arousal, social relevance, and an evolutionary context.

On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaerani, D., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Anggriani, N., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Firdaniza, E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id

2014-02-21

In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccinationmore » strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.« less

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

PubMed

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-01

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-01-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Interpersonal brain synchronization in the right temporo-parietal junction during face-to-face economic exchange.

PubMed

Tang, Honghong; Mai, Xiaoqin; Wang, Shun; Zhu, Chaozhe; Krueger, Frank; Liu, Chao

2016-01-01

In daily life, interpersonal interactions are influenced by uncertainty about other people's intentions. Face-to-face (FF) interaction reduces such uncertainty by providing external visible cues such as facial expression or body gestures and facilitates shared intentionality to promote belief of cooperative decisions and actual cooperative behaviors in interaction. However, so far little is known about interpersonal brain synchronization between two people engaged in naturally occurring FF interactions. In this study, we combined an adapted ultimatum game with functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) hyperscanning to investigate how FF interaction impacts interpersonal brain synchronization during economic exchange. Pairs of strangers interacted repeatedly either FF or face-blocked (FB), while their activation was simultaneously measured in the right temporo-parietal junction (rTPJ) and the control region, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (rDLPFC). Behaviorally, FF interactions increased shared intentionality between strangers, leading more positive belief of cooperative decisions and more actual gains in the game. FNIRS results indicated increased interpersonal brain synchronizations during FF interactions in rTPJ (but not in rDLPFC) with greater shared intentionality between partners. These results highlighted the importance of rTPJ in collaborative social interactions during FF economic exchange and warrant future research that combines FF interactions with fNIRS hyperscanning to study social brain disorders such as autism. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Face detection and eyeglasses detection for thermal face recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yufeng

2012-01-01

Thermal face recognition becomes an active research direction in human identification because it does not rely on illumination condition. Face detection and eyeglasses detection are necessary steps prior to face recognition using thermal images. Infrared light cannot go through glasses and thus glasses will appear as dark areas in a thermal image. One possible solution is to detect eyeglasses and to exclude the eyeglasses areas before face matching. In thermal face detection, a projection profile analysis algorithm is proposed, where region growing and morphology operations are used to segment the body of a subject; then the derivatives of two projections (horizontal and vertical) are calculated and analyzed to locate a minimal rectangle of containing the face area. Of course, the searching region of a pair of eyeglasses is within the detected face area. The eyeglasses detection algorithm should produce either a binary mask if eyeglasses present, or an empty set if no eyeglasses at all. In the proposed eyeglasses detection algorithm, block processing, region growing, and priori knowledge (i.e., low mean and variance within glasses areas, the shapes and locations of eyeglasses) are employed. The results of face detection and eyeglasses detection are quantitatively measured and analyzed using the manually defined ground truths (for both face and eyeglasses). Our experimental results shown that the proposed face detection and eyeglasses detection algorithms performed very well in contrast with the predefined ground truths.

A causal relationship between face-patch activity and face-detection behavior.

PubMed

Sadagopan, Srivatsun; Zarco, Wilbert; Freiwald, Winrich A

2017-04-04

The primate brain contains distinct areas densely populated by face-selective neurons. One of these, face-patch ML, contains neurons selective for contrast relationships between face parts. Such contrast-relationships can serve as powerful heuristics for face detection. However, it is unknown whether neurons with such selectivity actually support face-detection behavior. Here, we devised a naturalistic face-detection task and combined it with fMRI-guided pharmacological inactivation of ML to test whether ML is of critical importance for real-world face detection. We found that inactivation of ML impairs face detection. The effect was anatomically specific, as inactivation of areas outside ML did not affect face detection, and it was categorically specific, as inactivation of ML impaired face detection while sparing body and object detection. These results establish that ML function is crucial for detection of faces in natural scenes, performing a critical first step on which other face processing operations can build.

Face Time: Educating Face Transplant Candidates

PubMed Central

Lamparello, Brooke M.; Bueno, Ericka M.; Diaz-Siso, Jesus Rodrigo; Sisk, Geoffroy C.; Pomahac, Bohdan

2013-01-01

Objective: Face transplantation is the innovative application of microsurgery and immunology to restore appearance and function to those with severe facial disfigurements. Our group aims to establish a multidisciplinary education program that can facilitate informed consent and build a strong knowledge base in patients to enhance adherence to medication regimes, recovery, and quality of life. Methods: We analyzed handbooks from our institution's solid organ transplant programs to identify topics applicable to face transplant patients. The team identified unique features of face transplantation that warrant comprehensive patient education. Results: We created a 181-page handbook to provide subjects interested in pursuing transplantation with a written source of information on the process and team members and to address concerns they may have. While the handbook covers a wide range of topics, it is easy to understand and visually appealing. Conclusions: Face transplantation has many unique aspects that must be relayed to the patients pursuing this novel therapy. Since candidates lack third-party support groups and programs, the transplant team must provide an extensive educational component to enhance this complex process. Practice Implications: As face transplantation continues to develop, programs must create sound education programs that address patients’ needs and concerns to facilitate optimal care. PMID:23861990

Future internet architecture and cloud ecosystem: A survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Man; Yin, Shiqun

2018-04-01

The Internet has gradually become a social infrastructure, the existing TCP/IP architecture faces many challenges. So future Internet architecture become hot research. This paper introduces two ways of idea about the future research of Internet structure system, probes into the future Internet architecture and the environment of cloud ecosystem. Finally, we focuses the related research, and discuss basic principles and problems of OpenStack.

Alternative face models for 3D face registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salah, Albert Ali; Alyüz, Neşe; Akarun, Lale

2007-01-01

3D has become an important modality for face biometrics. The accuracy of a 3D face recognition system depends on a correct registration that aligns the facial surfaces and makes a comparison possible. The best results obtained so far use a one-to-all registration approach, which means each new facial surface is registered to all faces in the gallery, at a great computational cost. We explore the approach of registering the new facial surface to an average face model (AFM), which automatically establishes correspondence to the pre-registered gallery faces. Going one step further, we propose that using a couple of well-selected AFMs can trade-off computation time with accuracy. Drawing on cognitive justifications, we propose to employ category-specific alternative average face models for registration, which is shown to increase the accuracy of the subsequent recognition. We inspect thin-plate spline (TPS) and iterative closest point (ICP) based registration schemes under realistic assumptions on manual or automatic landmark detection prior to registration. We evaluate several approaches for the coarse initialization of ICP. We propose a new algorithm for constructing an AFM, and show that it works better than a recent approach. Finally, we perform simulations with multiple AFMs that correspond to different clusters in the face shape space and compare these with gender and morphology based groupings. We report our results on the FRGC 3D face database.

Withholding response to self-face is faster than to other-face.

PubMed

Zhu, Min; Hu, Yinying; Tang, Xiaochen; Luo, Junlong; Gao, Xiangping

2015-01-01

Self-face advantage refers to adults' response to self-face is faster than that to other-face. A stop-signal task was used to explore how self-face advantage interacted with response inhibition. The results showed that reaction times of self-face were faster than that of other-face not in the go task but in the stop response trials. The novelty of the finding was that self-face has shorter stop-signal reaction time compared to other-face in the successful inhibition trials. These results indicated the processing mechanism of self-face may be characterized by a strong response tendency and a corresponding strong inhibition control.

Behavioral medicine: a voyage to the future.

PubMed

Keefe, Francis J

2011-04-01

This paper discusses trends and future directions in behavioral medicine. It is divided into three sections. The first briefly reviews key developments in the history of behavioral medicine. The second section highlights trends and future directions in pain research and practice as a way of illustrating future directions for behavioral medicine. Consistent with the biopsychosocial model of pain, this section focuses on trends and future directions in three key areas: biological, psychological, and social. The third section describes recent Society of Behavioral Medicine initiatives designed to address some of the key challenges facing our field as we prepare for the future.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

2017-12-01

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance

Predictors of Response to Web-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy With High-Intensity Face-to-Face Therapist Guidance for Depression: A Bayesian Analysis

PubMed Central

Mittner, Matthias; Lillevoll, Kjersti; Katla, Susanne Kvam; Kolstrup, Nils; Eisemann, Martin; Friborg, Oddgeir; Waterloo, Knut

2015-01-01

results. Bayes factors indicated substantial evidence that being married or cohabiting predicted a more positive treatment response. The effects of life satisfaction and number of depressive episodes were more uncertain. There was substantial evidence that several variables were unrelated to treatment response, including gender, age, and pretreatment symptoms of depression and anxiety. Conclusions Treatment response to ICBT with face-to-face guidance may be comparable across varying levels of depressive severity and irrespective of the presence and severity of comorbid anxiety. Being married or cohabiting, reporting higher life satisfaction, and having had more depressive episodes may predict a more favorable response, whereas higher levels of dysfunctional thinking may be a predictor of poorer response. More studies exploring predictors and moderators of Internet-based treatments are needed to inform for whom this treatment is most effective. Trial Registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610000257066; https://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?id=335255 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6GR48iZH4). PMID:26333818

A methodology for enhancing implementation science proposals: comparison of face-to-face versus virtual workshops.

PubMed

Marriott, Brigid R; Rodriguez, Allison L; Landes, Sara J; Lewis, Cara C; Comtois, Katherine A

2016-05-06

With the current funding climate and need for advancements in implementation science, there is a growing demand for grantsmanship workshops to increase the quality and rigor of proposals. A group-based implementation science-focused grantsmanship workshop, the Implementation Development Workshop (IDW), is one methodology to address this need. This manuscript provides an overview of the IDW structure, format, and findings regarding its utility. The IDW methodology allows researchers to vet projects in the proposal stage in a structured format with a facilitator and two types of expert participants: presenters and attendees. The presenter uses a one-page handout and verbal presentation to present their proposal and questions. The facilitator elicits feedback from attendees using a format designed to maximize the number of unique points made. After each IDW, participants completed an anonymous survey assessing perceptions of the IDW. Presenters completed a funding survey measuring grant submission and funding success. Qualitative interviews were conducted with a subset of participants who participated in both delivery formats. Mixed method analyses were performed to evaluate the effectiveness and acceptability of the IDW and compare the delivery formats. Of those who participated in an IDW (N = 72), 40 participated in face-to-face only, 16 in virtual only, and 16 in both formats. Thirty-eight (face-to-face n = 12, 35 % response rate; virtual n = 26, 66.7 % response rate) responded to the surveys and seven (15.3 % response rate), who had attended both formats, completed an interview. Of 36 total presenters, 17 (face-to-face n = 12, 42.9 % response rate; virtual n = 5, 62.9 % response rate) responded to the funding survey. Mixed method analyses indicated that the IDW was effective for collaboration and growth, effective for enhancing success in obtaining grants, and acceptable. A third (35.3 %) of presenters ultimately received funding for their proposal, and more than

Adaptive backstepping control of train systems with traction/braking dynamics and uncertain resistive forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qi; Song, Y. D.; Cai, Wenchuan

2011-09-01

Although backstepping control design approach has been widely utilised in many practical systems, little effort has been made in applying this useful method to train systems. The main purpose of this paper is to apply this popular control design technique to speed and position tracking control of high-speed trains. By integrating adaptive control with backstepping control, we develop a control scheme that is able to address not only the traction and braking dynamics ignored in most existing methods, but also the uncertain friction and aerodynamic drag forces arisen from uncertain resistance coefficients. As such, the resultant control algorithms are able to achieve high precision train position and speed tracking under varying operation railway conditions, as validated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

Investigation of Biotransport in a Tumor With Uncertain Material Properties Using a Nonintrusive Spectral Uncertainty Quantification Method.

PubMed

Alexanderian, Alen; Zhu, Liang; Salloum, Maher; Ma, Ronghui; Yu, Meilin

2017-09-01

In this study, statistical models are developed for modeling uncertain heterogeneous permeability and porosity in tumors, and the resulting uncertainties in pressure and velocity fields during an intratumoral injection are quantified using a nonintrusive spectral uncertainty quantification (UQ) method. Specifically, the uncertain permeability is modeled as a log-Gaussian random field, represented using a truncated Karhunen-Lòeve (KL) expansion, and the uncertain porosity is modeled as a log-normal random variable. The efficacy of the developed statistical models is validated by simulating the concentration fields with permeability and porosity of different uncertainty levels. The irregularity in the concentration field bears reasonable visual agreement with that in MicroCT images from experiments. The pressure and velocity fields are represented using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to enable efficient computation of their statistical properties. The coefficients in the PC expansion are computed using a nonintrusive spectral projection method with the Smolyak sparse quadrature. The developed UQ approach is then used to quantify the uncertainties in the random pressure and velocity fields. A global sensitivity analysis is also performed to assess the contribution of individual KL modes of the log-permeability field to the total variance of the pressure field. It is demonstrated that the developed UQ approach can effectively quantify the flow uncertainties induced by uncertain material properties of the tumor.

Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

PubMed

Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

2016-08-15

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

About-face on face recognition ability and holistic processing.

PubMed

Richler, Jennifer J; Floyd, R Jackie; Gauthier, Isabel

2015-01-01

Previous work found a small but significant relationship between holistic processing measured with the composite task and face recognition ability measured by the Cambridge Face Memory Test (CFMT; Duchaine & Nakayama, 2006). Surprisingly, recent work using a different measure of holistic processing (Vanderbilt Holistic Face Processing Test [VHPT-F]; Richler, Floyd, & Gauthier, 2014) and a larger sample found no evidence for such a relationship. In Experiment 1 we replicate this unexpected result, finding no relationship between holistic processing (VHPT-F) and face recognition ability (CFMT). A key difference between the VHPT-F and other holistic processing measures is that unique face parts are used on each trial in the VHPT-F, unlike in other tasks where a small set of face parts repeat across the experiment. In Experiment 2, we test the hypothesis that correlations between the CFMT and holistic processing tasks are driven by stimulus repetition that allows for learning during the composite task. Consistent with our predictions, CFMT performance was correlated with holistic processing in the composite task when a small set of face parts repeated over trials, but not when face parts did not repeat. A meta-analysis confirms that relationships between the CFMT and holistic processing depend on stimulus repetition. These results raise important questions about what is being measured by the CFMT, and challenge current assumptions about why faces are processed holistically.

About-face on face recognition ability and holistic processing

PubMed Central

Richler, Jennifer J.; Floyd, R. Jackie; Gauthier, Isabel

2015-01-01

Previous work found a small but significant relationship between holistic processing measured with the composite task and face recognition ability measured by the Cambridge Face Memory Test (CFMT; Duchaine & Nakayama, 2006). Surprisingly, recent work using a different measure of holistic processing (Vanderbilt Holistic Face Processing Test [VHPT-F]; Richler, Floyd, & Gauthier, 2014) and a larger sample found no evidence for such a relationship. In Experiment 1 we replicate this unexpected result, finding no relationship between holistic processing (VHPT-F) and face recognition ability (CFMT). A key difference between the VHPT-F and other holistic processing measures is that unique face parts are used on each trial in the VHPT-F, unlike in other tasks where a small set of face parts repeat across the experiment. In Experiment 2, we test the hypothesis that correlations between the CFMT and holistic processing tasks are driven by stimulus repetition that allows for learning during the composite task. Consistent with our predictions, CFMT performance was correlated with holistic processing in the composite task when a small set of face parts repeated over trials, but not when face parts did not repeat. A meta-analysis confirms that relationships between the CFMT and holistic processing depend on stimulus repetition. These results raise important questions about what is being measured by the CFMT, and challenge current assumptions about why faces are processed holistically. PMID:26223027

Estimation for the Linear Model With Uncertain Covariance Matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachariah, Dave; Shariati, Nafiseh; Bengtsson, Mats; Jansson, Magnus; Chatterjee, Saikat

2014-03-01

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior inverse-Wishart distributions. The nonconvex problem of jointly estimating the signal of interest and the covariance matrices is tackled by a computationally efficient fixed-point iteration as well as an approximate variational Bayes solution. The statistical performance of estimators is compared numerically to state-of-the-art estimators from the literature and shown to perform favorably.

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Treesearch

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Robust cooperation of connected vehicle systems with eigenvalue-bounded interaction topologies in the presence of uncertain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Keqiang; Gao, Feng; Li, Shengbo Eben; Zheng, Yang; Gao, Hongbo

2017-12-01

This study presents a distributed H-infinity control method for uncertain platoons with dimensionally and structurally unknown interaction topologies provided that the associated topological eigenvalues are bounded by a predesigned range.With an inverse model to compensate for nonlinear powertrain dynamics, vehicles in a platoon are modeled by third-order uncertain systems with bounded disturbances. On the basis of the eigenvalue decomposition of topological matrices, we convert the platoon system to a norm-bounded uncertain part and a diagonally structured certain part by applying linear transformation. We then use a common Lyapunov method to design a distributed H-infinity controller. Numerically, two linear matrix inequalities corresponding to the minimum and maximum eigenvalues should be solved. The resulting controller can tolerate interaction topologies with eigenvalues located in a certain range. The proposed method can also ensure robustness performance and disturbance attenuation ability for the closed-loop platoon system. Hardware-in-the-loop tests are performed to validate the effectiveness of our method.

Prevalence of Fatigue and Associated Factors in a Spinal Cord Injury Population: Data from an Internet-Based and Face-to-Face Surveys.

PubMed

Cudeiro-Blanco, Javier; Onate-Figuérez, Ana; Soto-León, Vanesa; Avendaño-Coy, Juan; Mordillo-Mateos, Laura; Brocalero-Camacho, Angela; Esclarin-Ruz, Ana; Rotondi, Mario; Aguilar, Juan; Arias, Pablo; Oliviero, Antonio

2017-08-01

Fatigue has a profound impact on patients with spinal cord injury (SCI), but only limited treatments are available. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of fatigue in SCI and its association with clinical and demographic factors. We used an internet-based survey and a face-to-face interview to estimate the prevalence of fatigue in a SCI population. Fatigue was measured using the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). Clinically significant fatigue was defined as FSS scores greater than or equal to four. A total of 253 participants with SCI were included in the study. Clinically significant fatigue was present in one third of our sample. There was no relationship between fatigue and injury level or completeness. We found significant correlations between depression, pain, and level of injury. The relation of fatigue with completeness of injury and spasticity is less clear. Moreover, the online survey and the standard face-to-face interview showed similar results concerning fatigue evaluation. Several factors may contribute to fatigue, however. Future studies should be conducted to clarify which are the most relevant ones and, if possible, to determine which factors are modifiable.

Carbon-Type Analysis and Comparison of Original and Reblended FACE Diesel Fuels (FACE 2, FACE 4, and FACE 7)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bays, J. Timothy; King, David L.; O'Hagan, Molly J.

This report summarizes the carbon-type analysis from 1H and 13C{1H} nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) of Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE) diesel blends, FD-2B, FD 4B, and FD-7B, and makes comparison of the new blends with the original FACE diesel blends, FD 2A, FD 4A, and FD-7A, respectively. Generally, FD-2A and FD-2B are more similar than the A and B blends of FD-4 and FD-7. The aromatic carbon content is roughly equivalent, although the new FACE blends have decreased monoaromatic content and increased di- and tri-cycloaromatic content, as well as a higher overall aromatic content, than the original FACEmore » blends. The aromatic components of the new FACE blends generally have a higher alkyl substitution with longer alkyl substituents. The naphthenic and paraffinic contents remained relatively consistent. Based on aliphatic methyl and methylene carbon ratios, cetane numbers for FD-2A and -2B, and FD-7A and -7B are predicted to be consistent, while the cetane number for FD-4B is predicted to be higher than FD-4A. Overall, the new FACE fuel blends are fairly consistent with the original FACE fuel blends, but there are observable differences. In addition to providing important comparative compositional information on reformulated FACE diesel blends, this report also provides important information about the capabilities of the team at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in the use of NMR spectroscopy for the detailed characterization and comparison of fuels and fuel blends.« less

Holistic Integrated Design Education: Art Education in a Complex and Uncertain World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nokes, Christopher

2005-01-01

Learning, which is understood as a change in behavior, is a process of becoming. This monograph introduces the neologism egosystem as an amalgam of the individual, the self and its attendant ego, and socio-environmental schemata swirling around the individual. In an uncertain and probabilistic universe, the role of chaos theory in recognizing…

Face-to-face or face-to-screen? Undergraduates' opinions and test performance in classroom vs. online learning

PubMed Central

Kemp, Nenagh; Grieve, Rachel

2014-01-01

As electronic communication becomes increasingly common, and as students juggle study, work, and family life, many universities are offering their students more flexible learning opportunities. Classes once delivered face-to-face are often replaced by online activities and discussions. However, there is little research comparing students' experience and learning in these two modalities. The aim of this study was to compare undergraduates' preference for, and academic performance on, class material and assessment presented online vs. in traditional classrooms. Psychology students (N = 67) at an Australian university completed written exercises, a class discussion, and a written test on two academic topics. The activities for one topic were conducted face-to-face, and the other online, with topics counterbalanced across two groups. The results showed that students preferred to complete activities face-to-face rather than online, but there was no significant difference in their test performance in the two modalities. In their written responses, students expressed a strong preference for class discussions to be conducted face-to-face, reporting that they felt more engaged, and received more immediate feedback, than in online discussion. A follow-up study with a separate group (N = 37) confirmed that although students appreciated the convenience of completing written activities online in their own time, they also strongly preferred to discuss course content with peers in the classroom rather than online. It is concluded that online and face-to-face activities can lead to similar levels of academic performance, but that students would rather do written activities online but engage in discussion in person. Course developers could aim to structure classes so that students can benefit from both the flexibility of online learning, and the greater engagement experienced in face-to-face discussion. PMID:25429276

Face-to-face or face-to-screen? Undergraduates' opinions and test performance in classroom vs. online learning.

PubMed

Kemp, Nenagh; Grieve, Rachel

2014-01-01

As electronic communication becomes increasingly common, and as students juggle study, work, and family life, many universities are offering their students more flexible learning opportunities. Classes once delivered face-to-face are often replaced by online activities and discussions. However, there is little research comparing students' experience and learning in these two modalities. The aim of this study was to compare undergraduates' preference for, and academic performance on, class material and assessment presented online vs. in traditional classrooms. Psychology students (N = 67) at an Australian university completed written exercises, a class discussion, and a written test on two academic topics. The activities for one topic were conducted face-to-face, and the other online, with topics counterbalanced across two groups. The results showed that students preferred to complete activities face-to-face rather than online, but there was no significant difference in their test performance in the two modalities. In their written responses, students expressed a strong preference for class discussions to be conducted face-to-face, reporting that they felt more engaged, and received more immediate feedback, than in online discussion. A follow-up study with a separate group (N = 37) confirmed that although students appreciated the convenience of completing written activities online in their own time, they also strongly preferred to discuss course content with peers in the classroom rather than online. It is concluded that online and face-to-face activities can lead to similar levels of academic performance, but that students would rather do written activities online but engage in discussion in person. Course developers could aim to structure classes so that students can benefit from both the flexibility of online learning, and the greater engagement experienced in face-to-face discussion.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

PubMed

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-05-24

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain

PubMed Central

Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

2016-01-01

Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM’s actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM’s side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990–2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion. PMID:27162346

Mapping Teacher-Faces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Greg; Cook, Ian

2013-01-01

This paper uses Deleuze and Guattari's concept of faciality to analyse the teacher's face. According to Deleuze and Guattari, the teacher-face is a special type of face because it is an "overcoded" face produced in specific landscapes. This paper suggests four limit-faces for teacher faciality that actualise different mixes of significance and…

Faces forming traces: neurophysiological correlates of learning naturally distinctive and caricatured faces.

PubMed

Schulz, Claudia; Kaufmann, Jürgen M; Kurt, Alexander; Schweinberger, Stefan R

2012-10-15

Distinctive faces are easier to learn and recognise than typical faces. We investigated effects of natural vs. artificial distinctiveness on performance and neural correlates of face learning. Spatial caricatures of initially non-distinctive faces were created such that their rated distinctiveness matched a set of naturally distinctive faces. During learning, we presented naturally distinctive, caricatured, and non-distinctive faces for later recognition among novel faces, using different images of the same identities at learning and test. For learned faces, an advantage in performance was observed for naturally distinctive and caricatured over non-distinctive faces, with larger benefits for naturally distinctive faces. Distinctive and caricatured faces elicited more negative occipitotemporal ERPs (P200, N250) and larger centroparietal positivity (LPC) during learning. At test, earliest distinctiveness effects were again seen in the P200. In line with recent research, N250 and LPC were larger for learned than for novel faces overall. Importantly, whereas left hemispheric N250 was increased for learned naturally distinctive faces, right hemispheric N250 responded particularly to caricatured novel faces. We conclude that natural distinctiveness induces benefits to face recognition beyond those induced by exaggeration of a face's idiosyncratic shape, and that the left hemisphere in particular may mediate recognition across different images. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping attractor fields in face space: the atypicality bias in face recognition.

PubMed

Tanaka, J; Giles, M; Kremen, S; Simon, V

1998-09-01

A familiar face can be recognized across many changes in the stimulus input. In this research, the many-to-one mapping of face stimuli to a single face memory is referred to as a face memory's 'attractor field'. According to the attractor field approach, a face memory will be activated by any stimuli falling within the boundaries of its attractor field. It was predicted that by virtue of its location in a multi-dimensional face space, the attractor field of an atypical face will be larger than the attractor field of a typical face. To test this prediction, subjects make likeness judgments to morphed faces that contained a 50/50 contribution from an atypical and a typical parent face. The main result of four experiments was that the morph face was judged to bear a stronger resemblance to the atypical face parent than the typical face parent. The computational basis of the atypicality bias was demonstrated in a neural network simulation where morph inputs of atypical and typical representations elicited stronger activation of atypical output units than of typical output units. Together, the behavioral and simulation evidence supports the view that the attractor fields of atypical faces span over a broader region of face space that the attractor fields of typical faces.

Impact of uncertain head tissue conductivity in the optimization of transcranial direct current stimulation for an auditory target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Christian; Wagner, Sven; Burger, Martin; van Rienen, Ursula; Wolters, Carsten H.

2015-08-01

Objective. Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive brain stimulation technique to modify neural excitability. Using multi-array tDCS, we investigate the influence of inter-individually varying head tissue conductivity profiles on optimal electrode configurations for an auditory cortex stimulation. Approach. In order to quantify the uncertainty of the optimal electrode configurations, multi-variate generalized polynomial chaos expansions of the model solutions are used based on uncertain conductivity profiles of the compartments skin, skull, gray matter, and white matter. Stochastic measures, probability density functions, and sensitivity of the quantities of interest are investigated for each electrode and the current density at the target with the resulting stimulation protocols visualized on the head surface. Main results. We demonstrate that the optimized stimulation protocols are only comprised of a few active electrodes, with tolerable deviations in the stimulation amplitude of the anode. However, large deviations in the order of the uncertainty in the conductivity profiles could be noted in the stimulation protocol of the compensating cathodes. Regarding these main stimulation electrodes, the stimulation protocol was most sensitive to uncertainty in skull conductivity. Finally, the probability that the current density amplitude in the auditory cortex target region is supra-threshold was below 50%. Significance. The results suggest that an uncertain conductivity profile in computational models of tDCS can have a substantial influence on the prediction of optimal stimulation protocols for stimulation of the auditory cortex. The investigations carried out in this study present a possibility to predict the probability of providing a therapeutic effect with an optimized electrode system for future auditory clinical and experimental procedures of tDCS applications.

Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

2014-01-01

The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

Effectiveness of link prediction for face-to-face behavioral networks.

PubMed

Tsugawa, Sho; Ohsaki, Hiroyuki

2013-01-01

Research on link prediction for social networks has been actively pursued. In link prediction for a given social network obtained from time-windowed observation, new link formation in the network is predicted from the topology of the obtained network. In contrast, recent advances in sensing technology have made it possible to obtain face-to-face behavioral networks, which are social networks representing face-to-face interactions among people. However, the effectiveness of link prediction techniques for face-to-face behavioral networks has not yet been explored in depth. To clarify this point, here we investigate the accuracy of conventional link prediction techniques for networks obtained from the history of face-to-face interactions among participants at an academic conference. Our findings were (1) that conventional link prediction techniques predict new link formation with a precision of 0.30-0.45 and a recall of 0.10-0.20, (2) that prolonged observation of social networks often degrades the prediction accuracy, (3) that the proposed decaying weight method leads to higher prediction accuracy than can be achieved by observing all records of communication and simply using them unmodified, and (4) that the prediction accuracy for face-to-face behavioral networks is relatively high compared to that for non-social networks, but not as high as for other types of social networks.

Effectiveness of Link Prediction for Face-to-Face Behavioral Networks

PubMed Central

Tsugawa, Sho; Ohsaki, Hiroyuki

2013-01-01

Research on link prediction for social networks has been actively pursued. In link prediction for a given social network obtained from time-windowed observation, new link formation in the network is predicted from the topology of the obtained network. In contrast, recent advances in sensing technology have made it possible to obtain face-to-face behavioral networks, which are social networks representing face-to-face interactions among people. However, the effectiveness of link prediction techniques for face-to-face behavioral networks has not yet been explored in depth. To clarify this point, here we investigate the accuracy of conventional link prediction techniques for networks obtained from the history of face-to-face interactions among participants at an academic conference. Our findings were (1) that conventional link prediction techniques predict new link formation with a precision of 0.30–0.45 and a recall of 0.10–0.20, (2) that prolonged observation of social networks often degrades the prediction accuracy, (3) that the proposed decaying weight method leads to higher prediction accuracy than can be achieved by observing all records of communication and simply using them unmodified, and (4) that the prediction accuracy for face-to-face behavioral networks is relatively high compared to that for non-social networks, but not as high as for other types of social networks. PMID:24339956

Making It Happen: A Positive Guide to the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, John M., Jr., Ed.

This compilation of articles, photographs, commentaries, diagrams, and political cartoons presents positive, practical, and action-oriented core ideas on which to base future-oriented thinking and creative activity. The first of 10 parts presents articles on traditional American principles, ways of facing the future, America's character and…

Neural and behavioral responses to attractiveness in adult and infant faces.

PubMed

Hahn, Amanda C; Perrett, David I

2014-10-01

Facial attractiveness provides a very powerful motivation for sexual and parental behavior. We therefore review the importance of faces to the study of neurobiological control of human reproductive motivations. For heterosexual individuals there is a common brain circuit involving the nucleus accumbens, the medial prefrontal, dorsal anterior cingulate and the orbitofrontal cortices that is activated more by attractive than unattractive faces, particularly for faces of the opposite sex. Behavioral studies indicate parallel effects of attractiveness on incentive salience or willingness to work to see faces. There is some evidence that the reward value of opposite sex attractiveness is more pronounced in men than women, perhaps reflecting the greater importance assigned to physical attractiveness by men when evaluating a potential mate. Sex differences and similarities in response to facial attractiveness are reviewed. Studies comparing heterosexual and homosexual observers indicate the orbitofrontal cortex and mediodorsal thalamus are more activated by faces of the desired sex than faces of the less-preferred sex, independent of observer gender or sexual orientation. Infant faces activate brain regions that partially overlap with those responsive to adult faces. Infant faces provide a powerful stimulus, which also elicits sex differences in behavior and brain responses that appear dependent on sex hormones. There are many facial dimensions affecting perceptions of attractiveness that remain unexplored in neuroimaging, and we conclude by suggesting that future studies combining parametric manipulation of face images, brain imaging, hormone assays and genetic polymorphisms in receptor sensitivity are needed to understand the neural and hormonal mechanisms underlying reproductive drives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model.

PubMed

Hao, Shao-Rui; Geng, Shi-Chao; Fan, Lin-Xiao; Chen, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-Juan

2017-05-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A "chaining" inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure.

Strict Constraint Feasibility in Analysis and Design of Uncertain Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty, where hard inequality constraints are present. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations prescribed by the uncertainty model. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles. These models make it possible to consider sets of parameters having comparable as well as dissimilar levels of uncertainty. Two alternative formulations for hyper-rectangular sets are proposed, one based on a transformation of variables and another based on an infinity norm approach. The suite of tools developed enable us to determine if the satisfaction of hard constraints is feasible by identifying critical combinations of uncertain parameters. Since this practice is performed without sampling or partitioning the parameter space, the resulting assessments of robustness are analytically verifiable. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness of competing design alternatives, the approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness characteristics are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the solution methods only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, the tools developed are applicable to a broad range of problems in several disciplines.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

DOE PAGES

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-23

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes thatmore » the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. Here, a sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.« less

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model*

PubMed Central

Hao, Shao-rui; Geng, Shi-chao; Fan, Lin-xiao; Chen, Jia-jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-juan

2017-01-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure. PMID:28471111

Face format at encoding affects the other-race effect in face memory.

PubMed

Zhao, Mintao; Hayward, William G; Bülthoff, Isabelle

2014-08-07

Memory of own-race faces is generally better than memory of other-races faces. This other-race effect (ORE) in face memory has been attributed to differences in contact, holistic processing, and motivation to individuate faces. Since most studies demonstrate the ORE with participants learning and recognizing static, single-view faces, it remains unclear whether the ORE can be generalized to different face learning conditions. Using an old/new recognition task, we tested whether face format at encoding modulates the ORE. The results showed a significant ORE when participants learned static, single-view faces (Experiment 1). In contrast, the ORE disappeared when participants learned rigidly moving faces (Experiment 2). Moreover, learning faces displayed from four discrete views produced the same results as learning rigidly moving faces (Experiment 3). Contact with other-race faces was correlated with the magnitude of the ORE. Nonetheless, the absence of the ORE in Experiments 2 and 3 cannot be readily explained by either more frequent contact with other-race faces or stronger motivation to individuate them. These results demonstrate that the ORE is sensitive to face format at encoding, supporting the hypothesis that relative involvement of holistic and featural processing at encoding mediates the ORE observed in face memory. © 2014 ARVO.

The voluntary sector and conservation for England: achievements, expanding roles and uncertain future.

PubMed

Cook, Hadrian; Inman, Alax

2012-12-15

The voluntary sector is value driven, issue focussed and considered economically efficient due to volunteer engagement and low administrative overheads in meeting conservation objectives. Independence and flexibility make it an intermediary between stakeholders and government and it is proving an effective vehicle for public engagement. NGOs are emerging as a key player in environmental action, making them a partial replacement for 'big government action' and may be heralding a 'Big Green Society'. The sector ranges in scale from small, local conservation charities to nationally important organisations. This article focuses on functionality because resource issues relate to funding, competences of personnel, continuity of mission and access to expertise, and all are affected during times of austerity. NGOs were largely task-oriented, yet they rapidly developed a campaigning role encapsulating an ever deeper role in both planning and policy formulation. Subsequently, they have developed community inclusion at the core of their function. While the portents remain good, potential problems relate to economic resources, task allocation, impacts on labour markets, interactions with the statutory sector, operational independence and to relations with local democracy. Outlined in this paper are historic functions, operation and development of the sector and perceived issues for the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning to integrate reactivity and deliberation in uncertain planning and scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve A.; Gervasio, Melinda T.; Dejong, Gerald F.

1992-01-01

This paper describes an approach to planning and scheduling in uncertain domains. In this approach, a system divides a task on a goal by goal basis into reactive and deliberative components. Initially, a task is handled entirely reactively. When failures occur, the system changes the reactive/deliverative goal division by moving goals into the deliberative component. Because our approach attempts to minimize the number of deliberative goals, we call our approach Minimal Deliberation (MD). Because MD allows goals to be treated reactively, it gains some of the advantages of reactive systems: computational efficiency, the ability to deal with noise and non-deterministic effects, and the ability to take advantage of unforseen opportunities. However, because MD can fall back upon deliberation, it can also provide some of the guarantees of classical planning, such as the ability to deal with complex goal interactions. This paper describes the Minimal Deliberation approach to integrating reactivity and deliberation and describe an ongoing application of the approach to an uncertain planning and scheduling domain.

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

PubMed

Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

2008-02-05

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

The effect of face patch microstimulation on perception of faces and objects.

PubMed

Moeller, Sebastian; Crapse, Trinity; Chang, Le; Tsao, Doris Y

2017-05-01

What is the range of stimuli encoded by face-selective regions of the brain? We asked how electrical microstimulation of face patches in macaque inferotemporal cortex affects perception of faces and objects. We found that microstimulation strongly distorted face percepts and that this effect depended on precise targeting to the center of face patches. While microstimulation had no effect on the percept of many non-face objects, it did affect the percept of some, including non-face objects whose shape is consistent with a face (for example, apples) as well as somewhat facelike abstract images (for example, cartoon houses). Microstimulation even perturbed the percept of certain objects that did not activate the stimulated face patch at all. Overall, these results indicate that representation of facial identity is localized to face patches, but activity in these patches can also affect perception of face-compatible non-face objects, including objects normally represented in other parts of inferotemporal cortex.

Comparing Student Outcomes in Blended and Face-to-Face Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roscoe, Douglas D.

2012-01-01

This article reports on a study of student outcomes in a pair of matched courses, one taught face-to-face and one taught in a blended format, in which students completed most of the work online but met several times face-to-face. Learning objectives, course content, and pedagogical approaches were identical but the mode of instruction was…

Face to Face or E-Learning in Turkish EFL Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solak, Ekrem; Cakir, Recep

2014-01-01

This purpose of this study was to understand e-learners and face to face learners' views towards learning English through e-learning in vocational higher school context and to determine the role of academic achievement and gender in e-learning and face to face learning. This study was conducted at a state-run university in 2012-2013 academic year…

Visual Search Efficiency is Greater for Human Faces Compared to Animal Faces

PubMed Central

Simpson, Elizabeth A.; Mertins, Haley L.; Yee, Krysten; Fullerton, Alison; Jakobsen, Krisztina V.

2015-01-01

The Animate Monitoring Hypothesis proposes that humans and animals were the most important categories of visual stimuli for ancestral humans to monitor, as they presented important challenges and opportunities for survival and reproduction; however, it remains unknown whether animal faces are located as efficiently as human faces. We tested this hypothesis by examining whether human, primate, and mammal faces elicit similarly efficient searches, or whether human faces are privileged. In the first three experiments, participants located a target (human, primate, or mammal face) among distractors (non-face objects). We found fixations on human faces were faster and more accurate than primate faces, even when controlling for search category specificity. A final experiment revealed that, even when task-irrelevant, human faces slowed searches for non-faces, suggesting some bottom-up processing may be responsible for the human face search efficiency advantage. PMID:24962122

Collaborative recall in face-to-face and electronic groups.

PubMed

Ekeocha, Justina Ohaeri; Brennan, Susan E

2008-04-01

When people remember shared experiences, the amount they recall as a collaborating group is less than the amount obtained by pooling their individual memories. We tested the hypothesis that reduced group productivity can be attributed, at least in part, to content filtering, where information is omitted from group products either because individuals fail to retrieve it or choose to withhold it (self-filtering), or because groups reject or fail to incorporate it (group-filtering). Three-person groups viewed a movie clip together and recalled it, first individually, then in face-to-face or electronic groups, and finally individually again. Although both kinds of groups recalled equal amounts, group-filtering occurred more often face-to-face, while self-filtering occurred more often electronically. This suggests that reduced group productivity is due not only to intrapersonal factors stemming from cognitive interference, but also to interpersonal costs of coordinating the group product. Finally, face-to-face group interaction facilitated subsequent individual recall.

The construction FACE database - Codifying the NIOSH FACE reports.

PubMed

Dong, Xiuwen Sue; Largay, Julie A; Wang, Xuanwen; Cain, Chris Trahan; Romano, Nancy

2017-09-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has published reports detailing the results of investigations on selected work-related fatalities through the Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation (FACE) program since 1982. Information from construction-related FACE reports was coded into the Construction FACE Database (CFD). Use of the CFD was illustrated by analyzing major CFD variables. A total of 768 construction fatalities were included in the CFD. Information on decedents, safety training, use of PPE, and FACE recommendations were coded. Analysis shows that one in five decedents in the CFD died within the first two months on the job; 75% and 43% of reports recommended having safety training or installing protection equipment, respectively. Comprehensive research using FACE reports may improve understanding of work-related fatalities and provide much-needed information on injury prevention. The CFD allows researchers to analyze the FACE reports quantitatively and efficiently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Face lift.

PubMed

Warren, Richard J; Aston, Sherrell J; Mendelson, Bryan C

2011-12-01

After reading this article, the participant should be able to: 1. Identify and describe the anatomy of and changes to the aging face, including changes in bone mass and structure and changes to the skin, tissue, and muscles. 2. Assess each individual's unique anatomy before embarking on face-lift surgery and incorporate various surgical techniques, including fat grafting and other corrective procedures in addition to shifting existing fat to a higher position on the face, into discussions with patients. 3. Identify risk factors and potential complications in prospective patients. 4. Describe the benefits and risks of various techniques. The ability to surgically rejuvenate the aging face has progressed in parallel with plastic surgeons' understanding of facial anatomy. In turn, a more clear explanation now exists for the visible changes seen in the aging face. This article and its associated video content review the current understanding of facial anatomy as it relates to facial aging. The standard face-lift techniques are explained and their various features, both good and bad, are reviewed. The objective is for surgeons to make a better aesthetic diagnosis before embarking on face-lift surgery, and to have the ability to use the appropriate technique depending on the clinical situation.

The Online and Face-to-Face Counseling Attitudes Scales: A Validation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rochlen, Aaron B.; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Zack, Jason S.

2004-01-01

This article reports on the development of measures of attitudes toward online and face-to-face counseling. Overall, participants expressed more favorable evaluations of face-to-face counseling than of online counseling. Significant correlations were found between online and face-to-face counseling with traditional help-seeking attitudes, comfort…

Facebook and MySpace: complement or substitute for face-to-face interaction?

PubMed

Kujath, Carlyne L

2011-01-01

Previous studies have claimed that social-networking sites are used as a substitute for face-to-face interaction, resulting in deteriorating relationship quality and decreased intimacy among its users. The present study hypothesized that this type of communication is not a substitute for face-to-face interaction; rather, that it is an extension of communication with face-to-face partners. A survey was administered to examine the use of Facebook and MySpace in this regard among 183 college students. The study confirmed that Facebook and MySpace do act as an extension of face-to-face interaction, but that some users do tend to rely on Facebook and MySpace for interpersonal communication more than face-to-face interaction.

Critical Issues Facing America's Community Colleges: A Summary of the Community College Futures Assembly 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Basham, Matthew J.; Campbell, Dale F.; Mendoza, Pilar

2008-01-01

Three focus groups consisting of board of trustee members, community college presidents, senior administrators, administrators, and faculty members developed critical issues facing community colleges with respect to instructional planning and services; planning, governance, and finance; and workforce development. Thereafter, the delegation of more…

Stability of uncertain systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, G. L.

1971-01-01

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

Effective contaminant detection networks in uncertain groundwater flow fields.

PubMed

Hudak, P F

2001-01-01

A mass transport simulation model tested seven contaminant detection-monitoring networks under a 40 degrees range of groundwater flow directions. Each monitoring network contained five wells located 40 m from a rectangular landfill. The 40-m distance (lag) was measured in different directions, depending upon the strategy used to design a particular monitoring network. Lagging the wells parallel to the central flow path was more effective than alternative design strategies. Other strategies allowed higher percentages of leaks to migrate between monitoring wells. Results of this study suggest that centrally lagged groundwater monitoring networks perform most effectively in uncertain groundwater-flow fields.

Encouraging Participation in Face-to-Face Lectures: The Index Card Technique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daws, Laura Beth

2018-01-01

Courses: This activity will work in any face-to-face communication lecture course. Objectives: By the end of the semester in a face-to-face lecture class, every student will have engaged in verbal discussion.

Facing the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernard, Jessie

1981-01-01

The early 1970s constituted a crucial demographically, psycho-economically, and politically--for marriage and family in our society. The coalition of right-wing groups who lobby against issues such as abortion will probably not succeed in restoring the traditional family, since the circumstances that created it have passed. (Author/GC)

In the face of fear: Anxiety sensitizes defensive responses to fearful faces

PubMed Central

Grillon, Christian; Charney, Danielle R.

2011-01-01

Fearful faces readily activate the amygdala. Yet, whether fearful faces evoke fear is unclear. Startle studies show no potentiation of startle by fearful faces, suggesting that such stimuli do not activate defense mechanisms. However, the response to biologically relevant stimuli may be sensitized by anxiety. The present study tested the hypothesis that startle would not be potentiated by fearful faces in a safe context, but that startle would be larger during fearful faces compared to neutral faces in a threat-of-shock context. Subjects viewed fearful and neutral faces in alternating periods of safety and threat of shock. Acoustic startle stimuli were presented in the presence and absence of the faces. Startle was transiently potentiated by fearful faces compared to neutral faces in the threat periods. This suggests that although fearful faces do not prompt behavioral mobilization in an innocuous context, they can do so in an anxiogenic one. PMID:21824155

Mobilizing homeless youth for HIV prevention: a social network analysis of the acceptability of a face-to-face and online social networking intervention

PubMed Central

Rice, Eric; Tulbert, Eve; Cederbaum, Julie; Barman Adhikari, Anamika; Milburn, Norweeta G.

2012-01-01

The objective of the study is to use social network analysis to examine the acceptability of a youth-led, hybrid face-to-face and online social networking HIV prevention program for homeless youth.Seven peer leaders (PLs) engaged face-to-face homeless youth (F2F) in the creation of digital media projects (e.g. You Tube videos). PL and F2F recruited online youth (OY) to participate in MySpace and Facebook communities where digital media was disseminated and discussed. The resulting social networks were assessed with respect to size, growth, density, relative centrality of positions and homophily of ties. Seven PL, 53 F2F and 103 OY created two large networks. After the first 50 F2F youth participated, online networks entered a rapid growth phase. OY were among the most central youth in these networks. Younger aged persons and females were disproportionately connected to like youth. The program appears highly acceptable to homeless youth. Social network analysis revealed which PL were the most critical to the program and which types of participants (younger youth and females) may require additional outreach efforts in the future. PMID:22247453

Mobilizing homeless youth for HIV prevention: a social network analysis of the acceptability of a face-to-face and online social networking intervention.

PubMed

Rice, Eric; Tulbert, Eve; Cederbaum, Julie; Barman Adhikari, Anamika; Milburn, Norweeta G

2012-04-01

The objective of the study is to use social network analysis to examine the acceptability of a youth-led, hybrid face-to-face and online social networking HIV prevention program for homeless youth.Seven peer leaders (PLs) engaged face-to-face homeless youth (F2F) in the creation of digital media projects (e.g. You Tube videos). PL and F2F recruited online youth (OY) to participate in MySpace and Facebook communities where digital media was disseminated and discussed. The resulting social networks were assessed with respect to size, growth, density, relative centrality of positions and homophily of ties. Seven PL, 53 F2F and 103 OY created two large networks. After the first 50 F2F youth participated, online networks entered a rapid growth phase. OY were among the most central youth in these networks. Younger aged persons and females were disproportionately connected to like youth. The program appears highly acceptable to homeless youth. Social network analysis revealed which PL were the most critical to the program and which types of participants (younger youth and females) may require additional outreach efforts in the future.

Early (N170) activation of face-specific cortex by face-like objects

PubMed Central

Hadjikhani, Nouchine; Kveraga, Kestutis; Naik, Paulami; Ahlfors, Seppo P.

2009-01-01

The tendency to perceive faces in random patterns exhibiting configural properties of faces is an example of pareidolia. Perception of ‘real’ faces has been associated with a cortical response signal arising at about 170ms after stimulus onset; but what happens when non-face objects are perceived as faces? Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), we found that objects incidentally perceived as faces evoked an early (165ms) activation in the ventral fusiform cortex, at a time and location similar to that evoked by faces, whereas common objects did not evoke such activation. An earlier peak at 130 ms was also seen for images of real faces only. Our findings suggest that face perception evoked by face-like objects is a relatively early process, and not a late re-interpretation cognitive phenomenon. PMID:19218867

Face-to-Face Interference in Typical and Atypical Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riby, Deborah M.; Doherty-Sneddon, Gwyneth; Whittle, Lisa

2012-01-01

Visual communication cues facilitate interpersonal communication. It is important that we look at faces to retrieve and subsequently process such cues. It is also important that we sometimes look away from faces as they increase cognitive load that may interfere with online processing. Indeed, when typically developing individuals hold face gaze…

Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Paper DS-14-1028 to appear in the Special Issue on Stochastic Models, Control and Algorithms in Robotics, ASME Journal of Dynamic Systems...Measurement and Control Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach⋆ Devesh K. Jha† Yue Li† Thomas A. Wettergren‡† Asok...algorithm, called ν⋆, that was formulated in the framework of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA) and language measure from a control -theoretic

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Robust Controller Design for Continuous-Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Subject to Input Constraints.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Yang, Xiong; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

2015-07-01

The design of stabilizing controller for uncertain nonlinear systems with control constraints is a challenging problem. The constrained-input coupled with the inability to identify accurately the uncertainties motivates the design of stabilizing controller based on reinforcement-learning (RL) methods. In this paper, a novel RL-based robust adaptive control algorithm is developed for a class of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input constraints. The robust control problem is converted to the constrained optimal control problem with appropriately selecting value functions for the nominal system. Distinct from typical action-critic dual networks employed in RL, only one critic neural network (NN) is constructed to derive the approximate optimal control. Meanwhile, unlike initial stabilizing control often indispensable in RL, there is no special requirement imposed on the initial control. By utilizing Lyapunov's direct method, the closed-loop optimal control system and the estimated weights of the critic NN are proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded. In addition, the derived approximate optimal control is verified to guarantee the uncertain nonlinear system to be stable in the sense of uniform ultimate boundedness. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the present approach.

Pregnant patients' risk perception of prenatal test results with uncertain fetal clinical significance: ultrasound versus advanced genetic testing.

PubMed

Richards, Elliott G; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; McGuire, Amy L; Van den Veyver, Ignatia B; Fruhman, Gary

2015-12-01

A common concern of utilizing prenatal advanced genetic testing is that a result of uncertain clinical significance will increase patient anxiety. However, prenatal ultrasound may also yield findings of uncertain significance, such as 'soft markers' for fetal aneuploidy, or findings with variable prognosis, such as mild ventriculomegaly. In this study we compared risk perception following uncertain test results from each modality. A single survey with repeated measures design was administered to 133 pregnant women. It included 'intolerance of uncertainty' questions, two hypothetical scenarios involving prenatal ultrasound or advanced genetic testing, and response questions. The primary outcome was risk perception score. Risk perception did not vary significantly between ultrasound and genetic scenarios (p = 0.17). The genetic scenario scored a higher accuracy (p = 0.04) but lower sense of empowerment (p = 0.01). Furthermore, patients were more likely to seek additional testing after an ultrasound than after genetic testing (p = 0.05). There were no differences in other secondary outcomes including perception of life-altering consequences and hypothetical worry, anxiety, confusion, or medical care decisions. Our data suggest that uncertain findings on prenatal genetic testing do not elicit a higher perception of risk or anxiety when compared to ultrasound findings of comparable uncertainty. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Game Face

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Jill

2005-01-01

In this article, the author discusses "Game Face: Life Lessons Across the Curriculum", a teaching kit that challenges assumptions and builds confidence. Game Face, which is derived from a book and art exhibition, "Game Face: What Does a Female Athlete Look Like?", uses layered and powerful images of women and girls participating in sports to teach…

Critical Issues Facing America's Community Colleges: A Summary of the Community Colleges Futures Assembly 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Dale F.; Basham, Matthew J.

2007-01-01

Three focus groups consisting of 42 board of trustee members, community college presidents, senior administrators, and faculty members developed critical issues facing community colleges with respect to instructional planning and services; planning, governance, finance; and workforce development. Thereafter, the delegation of more than 200 voted…

Interfutures: Facing the Future, Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report discusses the findings of the three year Interfutures Project which studied the future development of advanced industrial societies and the relations between these countries and the developing countries. The major emphasis of the project was to analyze economic problems. However, political and social elements were also studied. The…

A specialized face-processing model inspired by the organization of monkey face patches explains several face-specific phenomena observed in humans.

PubMed

Farzmahdi, Amirhossein; Rajaei, Karim; Ghodrati, Masoud; Ebrahimpour, Reza; Khaligh-Razavi, Seyed-Mahdi

2016-04-26

Converging reports indicate that face images are processed through specialized neural networks in the brain -i.e. face patches in monkeys and the fusiform face area (FFA) in humans. These studies were designed to find out how faces are processed in visual system compared to other objects. Yet, the underlying mechanism of face processing is not completely revealed. Here, we show that a hierarchical computational model, inspired by electrophysiological evidence on face processing in primates, is able to generate representational properties similar to those observed in monkey face patches (posterior, middle and anterior patches). Since the most important goal of sensory neuroscience is linking the neural responses with behavioral outputs, we test whether the proposed model, which is designed to account for neural responses in monkey face patches, is also able to predict well-documented behavioral face phenomena observed in humans. We show that the proposed model satisfies several cognitive face effects such as: composite face effect and the idea of canonical face views. Our model provides insights about the underlying computations that transfer visual information from posterior to anterior face patches.

"Just another pretty face": a multidimensional scaling approach to face attractiveness and variability.

PubMed

Potter, Timothy; Corneille, Olivier; Ruys, Kirsten I; Rhodes, Ginwan

2007-04-01

Findings on both attractiveness and memory for faces suggest that people should perceive more similarity among attractive than among unattractive faces. A multidimensional scaling approach was used to test this hypothesis in two studies. In Study 1, we derived a psychological face space from similarity ratings of attractive and unattractive Caucasian female faces. In Study 2, we derived a face space for attractive and unattractive male faces of Caucasians and non-Caucasians. Both studies confirm that attractive faces are indeed more tightly clustered than unattractive faces in people's psychological face spaces. These studies provide direct and original support for theoretical assumptions previously made in the face space and face memory literatures.

ProMotE: an efficient algorithm for counting independent motifs in uncertain network topologies.

PubMed

Ren, Yuanfang; Sarkar, Aisharjya; Kahveci, Tamer

2018-06-26

Identifying motifs in biological networks is essential in uncovering key functions served by these networks. Finding non-overlapping motif instances is however a computationally challenging task. The fact that biological interactions are uncertain events further complicates the problem, as it makes the existence of an embedding of a given motif an uncertain event as well. In this paper, we develop a novel method, ProMotE (Probabilistic Motif Embedding), to count non-overlapping embeddings of a given motif in probabilistic networks. We utilize a polynomial model to capture the uncertainty. We develop three strategies to scale our algorithm to large networks. Our experiments demonstrate that our method scales to large networks in practical time with high accuracy where existing methods fail. Moreover, our experiments on cancer and degenerative disease networks show that our method helps in uncovering key functional characteristics of biological networks.

Adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems using single-hidden-layer neural networks.

PubMed

Hovakimyan, N; Nardi, F; Calise, A; Kim, Nakwan

2002-01-01

We consider adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems, in which both the dynamics and the dimension of the regulated system may be unknown. However, the relative degree of the regulated output is assumed to be known. Given a smooth reference trajectory, the problem is to design a controller that forces the system measurement to track it with bounded errors. The classical approach requires a state observer. Finding a good observer for an uncertain nonlinear system is not an obvious task. We argue that it is sufficient to build an observer for the output tracking error. Ultimate boundedness of the error signals is shown through Lyapunov's direct method. The theoretical results are illustrated in the design of a controller for a fourth-order nonlinear system of relative degree two and a high-bandwidth attitude command system for a model R-50 helicopter.

Early (M170) activation of face-specific cortex by face-like objects.

PubMed

Hadjikhani, Nouchine; Kveraga, Kestutis; Naik, Paulami; Ahlfors, Seppo P

2009-03-04

The tendency to perceive faces in random patterns exhibiting configural properties of faces is an example of pareidolia. Perception of 'real' faces has been associated with a cortical response signal arising at approximately 170 ms after stimulus onset, but what happens when nonface objects are perceived as faces? Using magnetoencephalography, we found that objects incidentally perceived as faces evoked an early (165 ms) activation in the ventral fusiform cortex, at a time and location similar to that evoked by faces, whereas common objects did not evoke such activation. An earlier peak at 130 ms was also seen for images of real faces only. Our findings suggest that face perception evoked by face-like objects is a relatively early process, and not a late reinterpretation cognitive phenomenon.

Subliminal presentation of other faces (but not own face) primes behavioral and evoked cortical processing of empathy for pain.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Agustín; Hurtado, Esteban; Lobos, Alejandro; Escobar, Josefina; Trujillo, Natalia; Baez, Sandra; Huepe, David; Manes, Facundo; Decety, Jean

2011-06-29

Current research on empathy for pain emphasizes the overlap in the neural response between the first-hand experience of pain and its perception in others. However, recent studies suggest that the perception of the pain of others may reflect the processing of a threat or negative arousal rather than an automatic pro-social response. It can thus be suggested that pain processing of other-related, but not self-related, information could imply danger rather than empathy, due to the possible threat represented in the expressions of others (especially if associated with pain stimuli). To test this hypothesis, two experiments considering subliminal stimuli were designed. In Experiment 1, neutral and semantic pain expressions previously primed with own or other faces were presented to participants. When other-face priming was used, only the detection of semantic pain expressions was facilitated. In Experiment 2, pictures with pain and neutral scenarios previously used in ERP and fMRI research were used in a categorization task. Those pictures were primed with own or other faces following the same procedure as in Experiment 1 while ERPs were recorded. Early (N1) and late (P3) cortical responses between pain and no-pain were modulated only in the other-face priming condition. These results support the threat value of pain hypothesis and suggest the necessity for the inclusion of own- versus other-related information in future empathy for pain research. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High heat flux issues for plasma-facing components in fusion reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Robert D.

1993-02-01

Plasma facing components in tokamak fusion reactors are faced with a number of difficult high heat flux issues. These components include: first wall armor tiles, pumped limiters, diverter plates, rf antennae structure, and diagnostic probes. Peak heat fluxes are 15 - 30 MW/m2 for diverter plates, which will operate for 100 - 1000 seconds in future tokamaks. Disruption heat fluxes can approach 100,000 MW/m2 for 0.1 ms. Diverter plates are water-cooled heat sinks with armor tiles brazed on to the plasma facing side. Heat sink materials include OFHC, GlidcopTM, TZM, Mo-41Re, and niobium alloys. Armor tile materials include: carbon fiber composites, beryllium, silicon carbide, tungsten, and molybdenum. Tile thickness range from 2 - 10 mm, and heat sinks are 1 - 3 mm. A twisted tape insert is used to enhance heat transfer and increase the burnout safety margin from critical heat flux limits to 50 - 60 MW/m2 with water at 10 m/s and 4 MPa. Tests using rastered electron beams have shown thermal fatigue failures from cracks at the brazed interface between tiles and the heat sink after only 1000 cycles at 10 - 15 MW/m2. These fatigue lifetimes need to be increased an order of magnitude to meet future requirements. Other critical issues for plasma facing components include: surface erosion from sputtering and disruption erosion, eddy current forces and runaway electron impact from disruptions, neutron damage, tritium retention and release, remote maintenance of radioactive components, corrosion-erosion, and loss-of-coolant accidents.

Homogenization-based interval analysis for structural-acoustic problem involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

PubMed

Chen, Ning; Yu, Dejie; Xia, Baizhan; Liu, Jian; Ma, Zhengdong

2017-04-01

This paper presents a homogenization-based interval analysis method for the prediction of coupled structural-acoustic systems involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. In the structural-acoustic system, the macro plate structure is assumed to be composed of a periodically uniform microstructure. The equivalent macro material properties of the microstructure are computed using the homogenization method. By integrating the first-order Taylor expansion interval analysis method with the homogenization-based finite element method, a homogenization-based interval finite element method (HIFEM) is developed to solve a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. The corresponding formulations of the HIFEM are deduced. A subinterval technique is also introduced into the HIFEM for higher accuracy. Numerical examples of a hexahedral box and an automobile passenger compartment are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the presented method for a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

Face-to-face interference in typical and atypical development

PubMed Central

Riby, Deborah M; Doherty-Sneddon, Gwyneth; Whittle, Lisa

2012-01-01

Visual communication cues facilitate interpersonal communication. It is important that we look at faces to retrieve and subsequently process such cues. It is also important that we sometimes look away from faces as they increase cognitive load that may interfere with online processing. Indeed, when typically developing individuals hold face gaze it interferes with task completion. In this novel study we quantify face interference for the first time in Williams syndrome (WS) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). These disorders of development impact on cognition and social attention, but how do faces interfere with cognitive processing? Individuals developing typically as well as those with ASD (n = 19) and WS (n = 16) were recorded during a question and answer session that involved mathematics questions. In phase 1 gaze behaviour was not manipulated, but in phase 2 participants were required to maintain eye contact with the experimenter at all times. Looking at faces decreased task accuracy for individuals who were developing typically. Critically, the same pattern was seen in WS and ASD, whereby task performance decreased when participants were required to hold face gaze. The results show that looking at faces interferes with task performance in all groups. This finding requires the caveat that individuals with WS and ASD found it harder than individuals who were developing typically to maintain eye contact throughout the interaction. Individuals with ASD struggled to hold eye contact at all points of the interaction while those with WS found it especially difficult when thinking. PMID:22356183

Neural correlates of uncertain decision making: ERP evidence from the Iowa Gambling Task

PubMed Central

Cui, Ji-fang; Chen, Ying-he; Wang, Ya; Shum, David H. K.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2013-01-01

In our daily life, it is very common to make decisions in uncertain situations. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been widely used in laboratory studies because of its good simulation of uncertainty in real life activities. The present study aimed to examine the neural correlates of uncertain decision making with the IGT. Twenty-six university students completed this study. An adapted IGT was administered to them, and the EEG data were recorded. The adapted IGT we used allowed us to analyze the choice evaluation, response selection, and feedback evaluation stages of uncertain decision making within the same paradigm. In the choice evaluation stage, the advantageous decks evoked larger P3 amplitude in the left hemisphere, while the disadvantageous decks evoked larger P3 in the right hemisphere. In the response selection stage, the response of “pass” (the card was not turned over; the participants neither won nor lost money) evoked larger negativity preceding the response compared to that of “play” (the card was turned over; the participant either won or lost money). In the feedback evaluation stage, feedback-related negativity (FRN) was only sensitive to the valence (win/loss) but not the magnitude (large/small) of the outcome, and P3 was sensitive to both the valence and the magnitude of the outcome. These results were consistent with the notion that a positive somatic state was represented in the left hemisphere and a negative somatic state was represented in the right hemisphere. There were also anticipatory ERP effects that guided the participants' responses and provided evidence for the somatic marker hypothesis with more precise timing. PMID:24298248

The Face-to-Face Light Detection Paradigm: A New Methodology for Investigating Visuospatial Attention Across Different Face Regions in Live Face-to-Face Communication Settings.

PubMed

Thompson, Laura A; Malloy, Daniel M; Cone, John M; Hendrickson, David L

2010-01-01

We introduce a novel paradigm for studying the cognitive processes used by listeners within interactive settings. This paradigm places the talker and the listener in the same physical space, creating opportunities for investigations of attention and comprehension processes taking place during interactive discourse situations. An experiment was conducted to compare results from previous research using videotaped stimuli to those obtained within the live face-to-face task paradigm. A headworn apparatus is used to briefly display LEDs on the talker's face in four locations as the talker communicates with the participant. In addition to the primary task of comprehending speeches, participants make a secondary task light detection response. In the present experiment, the talker gave non-emotionally-expressive speeches that were used in past research with videotaped stimuli. Signal detection analysis was employed to determine which areas of the face received the greatest focus of attention. Results replicate previous findings using videotaped methods.

The Face-to-Face Light Detection Paradigm: A New Methodology for Investigating Visuospatial Attention Across Different Face Regions in Live Face-to-Face Communication Settings

PubMed Central

Thompson, Laura A.; Malloy, Daniel M.; Cone, John M.; Hendrickson, David L.

2009-01-01

We introduce a novel paradigm for studying the cognitive processes used by listeners within interactive settings. This paradigm places the talker and the listener in the same physical space, creating opportunities for investigations of attention and comprehension processes taking place during interactive discourse situations. An experiment was conducted to compare results from previous research using videotaped stimuli to those obtained within the live face-to-face task paradigm. A headworn apparatus is used to briefly display LEDs on the talker’s face in four locations as the talker communicates with the participant. In addition to the primary task of comprehending speeches, participants make a secondary task light detection response. In the present experiment, the talker gave non-emotionally-expressive speeches that were used in past research with videotaped stimuli. Signal detection analysis was employed to determine which areas of the face received the greatest focus of attention. Results replicate previous findings using videotaped methods. PMID:21113354

Biracial and Monoracial Infant Own-Race Face Perception: An Eye Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Gaither, Sarah E.; Pauker, Kristin; Johnson, Scott P.

2012-01-01

We know early experience plays a crucial role in the development of face processing, but we know little about how infants learn to distinguish faces from different races, especially for non-Caucasian populations. Moreover, it is unknown whether differential processing of different race faces observed in typically-studied monoracial infants extends to biracial infants as well. Thus, we investigated 3-month-old Caucasian, Asian and biracial (Caucasian-Asian) infants’ ability to distinguish Caucasian and Asian faces. Infants completed two within-subject, infant-controlled habituation sequences and test trials as an eye tracker recorded looking times and scanning patterns. Examination of individual differences revealed significant positive correlations between own-race novelty preference and scanning frequency between eye and mouth regions of own-race habituation stimuli for Caucasian and Asian infants, suggesting that facility in own-race face discrimination stems from active inspection of internal facial features in these groups. Biracial infants, however, showed the opposite effect: An “own-race” novelty preference was associated with reduced scanning between eye and mouth regions of “own-race” habituation stimuli, suggesting that biracial infants use a distinct approach to processing frequently encountered faces. Future directions for investigating face processing development in biracial populations are discussed. PMID:23106731

Biracial and monoracial infant own-race face perception: an eye tracking study.

PubMed

Gaither, Sarah E; Pauker, Kristin; Johnson, Scott P

2012-11-01

We know that early experience plays a crucial role in the development of face processing, but we know little about how infants learn to distinguish faces from different races, especially for non-Caucasian populations. Moreover, it is unknown whether differential processing of different race faces observed in typically studied monoracial infants extends to biracial infants as well. Thus, we investigated 3-month-old Caucasian, Asian and biracial (Caucasian-Asian) infants' ability to distinguish Caucasian and Asian faces. Infants completed two within-subject, infant-controlled habituation sequences and test trials as an eye tracker recorded looking times and scanning patterns. Examination of individual differences revealed significant positive correlations between own-race novelty preference and scanning frequency between eye and mouth regions of own-race habituation stimuli for Caucasian and Asian infants, suggesting that facility in own-race face discrimination stems from active inspection of internal facial features in these groups. Biracial infants, however, showed the opposite effect: An 'own-race' novelty preference was associated with reduced scanning between eye and mouth regions of 'own-race' habituation stimuli, suggesting that biracial infants use a distinct approach to processing frequently encountered faces. Future directions for investigating face processing development in biracial populations are discussed. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A specialized face-processing model inspired by the organization of monkey face patches explains several face-specific phenomena observed in humans

PubMed Central

Farzmahdi, Amirhossein; Rajaei, Karim; Ghodrati, Masoud; Ebrahimpour, Reza; Khaligh-Razavi, Seyed-Mahdi

2016-01-01

Converging reports indicate that face images are processed through specialized neural networks in the brain –i.e. face patches in monkeys and the fusiform face area (FFA) in humans. These studies were designed to find out how faces are processed in visual system compared to other objects. Yet, the underlying mechanism of face processing is not completely revealed. Here, we show that a hierarchical computational model, inspired by electrophysiological evidence on face processing in primates, is able to generate representational properties similar to those observed in monkey face patches (posterior, middle and anterior patches). Since the most important goal of sensory neuroscience is linking the neural responses with behavioral outputs, we test whether the proposed model, which is designed to account for neural responses in monkey face patches, is also able to predict well-documented behavioral face phenomena observed in humans. We show that the proposed model satisfies several cognitive face effects such as: composite face effect and the idea of canonical face views. Our model provides insights about the underlying computations that transfer visual information from posterior to anterior face patches. PMID:27113635

Subliminal Face Emotion Processing: A Comparison of Fearful and Disgusted Faces.

PubMed

Khalid, Shah; Ansorge, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Prior research has provided evidence for (1) subcortical processing of subliminal facial expressions of emotion and (2) for the emotion-specificity of these processes. Here, we investigated if this is also true for the processing of the subliminal facial display of disgust. In Experiment 1, we used differently filtered masked prime faces portraying emotionally neutral or disgusted expressions presented prior to clearly visible target faces to test if the masked primes exerted an influence on target processing nonetheless. Whereas we found evidence for subliminal face congruence or priming effects, in particular, reverse priming by low spatial frequencies disgusted face primes, we did not find any support for a subcortical origin of the effect. In Experiment 2, we compared the influence of subliminal disgusted faces with that of subliminal fearful faces and demonstrated a behavioral performance difference between the two, pointing to an emotion-specific processing of the disgusted facial expressions. In both experiments, we also tested for the dependence of the subliminal emotional face processing on spatial attention - with mixed results, suggesting an attention-independence in Experiment 1 but not in Experiment 2 -, and we found perfect masking of the face primes - that is, proof of the subliminality of the prime faces. Based on our findings, we speculate that subliminal facial expressions of disgust could afford easy avoidance of these faces. This could be a unique effect of disgusted faces as compared to other emotional facial displays, at least under the conditions studied here.

Using online learning in a traditional face-to-face environment.

PubMed

Kozlowski, Dawn

2002-01-01

A model for designing online learning was developed and implemented in a Registered Nurse-to-Bachelor of Science in Nursing course using online and face-to-face methodologies. The combination of online and face-to-face learning modalities may help the student who is a novice Internet explorer or seasoned Web navigator by offering technological support as well as providing constant in-person feedback regarding course requirements. The face-to-face component facilitates a sense of community and peer support that sometimes is lacking in an entirely online course. During the 2 semesters this model was used, students expressed satisfaction with having the course facilitator/professor physically available for consultation and advisement. Evaluation of this online/on-site course is ongoing and uses computer-administered qualitative questionnaires, a facilitator-moderated focus group, and Likert-type course evaluations.

Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrell Estupina, V.; Raynaud, F.; Bourgeois, N.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Collet, L.; Haziza, E.; Servat, E.

2015-06-01

Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).

Reverse engineering the face space: Discovering the critical features for face identification.

PubMed

Abudarham, Naphtali; Yovel, Galit

2016-01-01

How do we identify people? What are the critical facial features that define an identity and determine whether two faces belong to the same person or different people? To answer these questions, we applied the face space framework, according to which faces are represented as points in a multidimensional feature space, such that face space distances are correlated with perceptual similarities between faces. In particular, we developed a novel method that allowed us to reveal the critical dimensions (i.e., critical features) of the face space. To that end, we constructed a concrete face space, which included 20 facial features of natural face images, and asked human observers to evaluate feature values (e.g., how thick are the lips). Next, we systematically and quantitatively changed facial features, and measured the perceptual effects of these manipulations. We found that critical features were those for which participants have high perceptual sensitivity (PS) for detecting differences across identities (e.g., which of two faces has thicker lips). Furthermore, these high PS features vary minimally across different views of the same identity, suggesting high PS features support face recognition across different images of the same face. The methods described here set an infrastructure for discovering the critical features of other face categories not studied here (e.g., Asians, familiar) as well as other aspects of face processing, such as attractiveness or trait inferences.

Sex influence on face recognition memory moderated by presentation duration and reencoding.

PubMed

Weirich, Sebastian; Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Meissner, Lucia; Heinz, Andreas; Bengner, Thomas

2011-11-01

It has been suggested that women have a better face recognition memory than men. Here we analyzed whether this advantage depends on a better encoding or consolidation of information and if the advantage is visible during short-term memory (STM), only, or whether it also remains evident in long-term memory (LTM). We tested short- and long-term face recognition memory in 36 nonclinical participants (19 women). We varied the duration of item presentation (1, 5, and 10 s), the time of testing (immediately after the study phase, 1 hr, and 24 hr later), and the possibility to reencode items (none, immediately after the study phase, after 1 hr). Women showed better overall face recognition memory than men (ηp² = .15, p < .05). We found this advantage, however, only with a longer duration of item presentation (interaction effect Sex × ηp² = .16, p < .05). Women's advantage in face recognition was visible mainly if participants had the possibility to reencode faces during former test trials. Our results suggest women do not have a better face recognition memory than men per se, but may profit more than men from longer durations of presentation during encoding or the possibility for reencoding. Future research on sex differences in face recognition memory should explicate possible causes for the better encoding of face information in women.

Older Children's Misunderstanding of Uncertain Belief after Passing the False Belief Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ting; Zheng, Xueru; Zhang, Li; Sha, Wenju; Deak, Gedeon; Li, Hong

2010-01-01

A four-location belief task was designed to examine children's understanding of another's uncertain belief after passing a false belief (FB) task. In Experiment 1, after passing the FB task, participants were asked what a puppet would do after he failed to find his toy at the falsely believed location. Most 4-year-olds and half of 6-year-olds…

Individual differences in cortical face selectivity predict behavioral performance in face recognition

PubMed Central

Huang, Lijie; Song, Yiying; Li, Jingguang; Zhen, Zonglei; Yang, Zetian; Liu, Jia

2014-01-01

In functional magnetic resonance imaging studies, object selectivity is defined as a higher neural response to an object category than other object categories. Importantly, object selectivity is widely considered as a neural signature of a functionally-specialized area in processing its preferred object category in the human brain. However, the behavioral significance of the object selectivity remains unclear. In the present study, we used the individual differences approach to correlate participants' face selectivity in the face-selective regions with their behavioral performance in face recognition measured outside the scanner in a large sample of healthy adults. Face selectivity was defined as the z score of activation with the contrast of faces vs. non-face objects, and the face recognition ability was indexed as the normalized residual of the accuracy in recognizing previously-learned faces after regressing out that for non-face objects in an old/new memory task. We found that the participants with higher face selectivity in the fusiform face area (FFA) and the occipital face area (OFA), but not in the posterior part of the superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), possessed higher face recognition ability. Importantly, the association of face selectivity in the FFA and face recognition ability cannot be accounted for by FFA response to objects or behavioral performance in object recognition, suggesting that the association is domain-specific. Finally, the association is reliable, confirmed by the replication from another independent participant group. In sum, our finding provides empirical evidence on the validity of using object selectivity as a neural signature in defining object-selective regions in the human brain. PMID:25071513

Face familiarity promotes stable identity recognition: exploring face perception using serial dependence

PubMed Central

Kok, Rebecca; Van der Burg, Erik; Rhodes, Gillian; Alais, David

2017-01-01

Studies suggest that familiar faces are processed in a manner distinct from unfamiliar faces and that familiarity with a face confers an advantage in identity recognition. Our visual system seems to capitalize on experience to build stable face representations that are impervious to variation in retinal input that may occur due to changes in lighting, viewpoint, viewing distance, eye movements, etc. Emerging evidence also suggests that our visual system maintains a continuous perception of a face's identity from one moment to the next despite the retinal input variations through serial dependence. This study investigates whether interactions occur between face familiarity and serial dependence. In two experiments, participants used a continuous scale to rate attractiveness of unfamiliar and familiar faces (either experimentally learned or famous) presented in rapid sequences. Both experiments revealed robust inter-trial effects in which attractiveness ratings for a given face depended on the preceding face's attractiveness. This inter-trial attractiveness effect was most pronounced for unfamiliar faces. Indeed, when participants were familiar with a given face, attractiveness ratings showed significantly less serial dependence. These results represent the first evidence that familiar faces can resist the temporal integration seen in sequential dependencies and highlight the importance of familiarity to visual cognition. PMID:28405355

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Feature inference with uncertain categorization: Re-assessing Anderson's rational model.

PubMed

Konovalova, Elizaveta; Le Mens, Gaël

2017-09-18

A key function of categories is to help predictions about unobserved features of objects. At the same time, humans are often in situations where the categories of the objects they perceive are uncertain. In an influential paper, Anderson (Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429, 1991) proposed a rational model for feature inferences with uncertain categorization. A crucial feature of this model is the conditional independence assumption-it assumes that the within category feature correlation is zero. In prior research, this model has been found to provide a poor fit to participants' inferences. This evidence is restricted to task environments inconsistent with the conditional independence assumption. Currently available evidence thus provides little information about how this model would fit participants' inferences in a setting with conditional independence. In four experiments based on a novel paradigm and one experiment based on an existing paradigm, we assess the performance of Anderson's model under conditional independence. We find that this model predicts participants' inferences better than competing models. One model assumes that inferences are based on just the most likely category. The second model is insensitive to categories but sensitive to overall feature correlation. The performance of Anderson's model is evidence that inferences were influenced not only by the more likely category but also by the other candidate category. Our findings suggest that a version of Anderson's model which relaxes the conditional independence assumption will likely perform well in environments characterized by within-category feature correlation.

Spontaneous attention to faces in Asperger syndrome using ecologically valid static stimuli.

PubMed

Hanley, Mary; McPhillips, Martin; Mulhern, Gerry; Riby, Deborah M

2013-11-01

Previous eye tracking research on the allocation of attention to social information by individuals with autism spectrum disorders is equivocal and may be in part a consequence of variation in stimuli used between studies. The current study explored attention allocation to faces, and within faces, by individuals with Asperger syndrome using a range of static stimuli where faces were either viewed in isolation or viewed in the context of a social scene. Results showed that faces were viewed typically by the individuals with Asperger syndrome when presented in isolation, but attention to the eyes was significantly diminished in comparison to age and IQ-matched typical viewers when faces were viewed as part of social scenes. We show that when using static stimuli, there is evidence of atypicality for individuals with Asperger syndrome depending on the extent of social context. Our findings shed light on the previous explanations of gaze behaviour that have emphasised the role of movement in atypicalities of social attention in autism spectrum disorders and highlight the importance of consideration of the realistic portrayal of social information for future studies.

Looking at My Own Face: Visual Processing Strategies in Self–Other Face Recognition

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Anya; Chakrabarti, Bhismadev

2018-01-01

We live in an age of ‘selfies.’ Yet, how we look at our own faces has seldom been systematically investigated. In this study we test if the visual processing of the highly familiar self-face is different from other faces, using psychophysics and eye-tracking. This paradigm also enabled us to test the association between the psychophysical properties of self-face representation and visual processing strategies involved in self-face recognition. Thirty-three adults performed a self-face recognition task from a series of self-other face morphs with simultaneous eye-tracking. Participants were found to look longer at the lower part of the face for self-face compared to other-face. Participants with a more distinct self-face representation, as indexed by a steeper slope of the psychometric response curve for self-face recognition, were found to look longer at upper part of the faces identified as ‘self’ vs. those identified as ‘other’. This result indicates that self-face representation can influence where we look when we process our own vs. others’ faces. We also investigated the association of autism-related traits with self-face processing metrics since autism has previously been associated with atypical self-processing. The study did not find any self-face specific association with autistic traits, suggesting that autism-related features may be related to self-processing in a domain specific manner. PMID:29487554

Greater sensitivity of the cortical face processing system to perceptually-equated face detection

PubMed Central

Maher, S.; Ekstrom, T.; Tong, Y.; Nickerson, L.D.; Frederick, B.; Chen, Y.

2015-01-01

Face detection, the perceptual capacity to identify a visual stimulus as a face before probing deeper into specific attributes (such as its identity or emotion), is essential for social functioning. Despite the importance of this functional capacity, face detection and its underlying brain mechanisms are not well understood. This study evaluated the roles that the cortical face processing system, which is identified largely through studying other aspects of face perception, play in face detection. Specifically, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the activations of the fusifom face area (FFA), occipital face area (OFA) and superior temporal sulcus (STS) when face detection was isolated from other aspects of face perception and when face detection was perceptually-equated across individual human participants (n=20). During face detection, FFA and OFA were significantly activated, even for stimuli presented at perceptual-threshold levels, whereas STS was not. During tree detection, however, FFA and OFA were responsive only for highly salient (i.e., high contrast) stimuli. Moreover, activation of FFA during face detection predicted a significant portion of the perceptual performance levels that were determined psychophysically for each participant. This pattern of result indicates that FFA and OFA have a greater sensitivity to face detection signals and selectively support the initial process of face vs. non-face object perception. PMID:26592952

Subliminal Face Emotion Processing: A Comparison of Fearful and Disgusted Faces

PubMed Central

Khalid, Shah; Ansorge, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Prior research has provided evidence for (1) subcortical processing of subliminal facial expressions of emotion and (2) for the emotion-specificity of these processes. Here, we investigated if this is also true for the processing of the subliminal facial display of disgust. In Experiment 1, we used differently filtered masked prime faces portraying emotionally neutral or disgusted expressions presented prior to clearly visible target faces to test if the masked primes exerted an influence on target processing nonetheless. Whereas we found evidence for subliminal face congruence or priming effects, in particular, reverse priming by low spatial frequencies disgusted face primes, we did not find any support for a subcortical origin of the effect. In Experiment 2, we compared the influence of subliminal disgusted faces with that of subliminal fearful faces and demonstrated a behavioral performance difference between the two, pointing to an emotion-specific processing of the disgusted facial expressions. In both experiments, we also tested for the dependence of the subliminal emotional face processing on spatial attention – with mixed results, suggesting an attention-independence in Experiment 1 but not in Experiment 2 –, and we found perfect masking of the face primes – that is, proof of the subliminality of the prime faces. Based on our findings, we speculate that subliminal facial expressions of disgust could afford easy avoidance of these faces. This could be a unique effect of disgusted faces as compared to other emotional facial displays, at least under the conditions studied here. PMID:28680413

The Future Problem Solving Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crabbe, Anne B.

1989-01-01

Describes the Future Problem Solving Program, in which students from the U.S. and around the world are tackling some complex challenges facing society, ranging from acid rain to terrorism. The program uses a creative problem solving process developed for business and industry. A sixth-grade toxic waste cleanup project illustrates the process.…

Face features and face configurations both contribute to visual crowding.

PubMed

Sun, Hsin-Mei; Balas, Benjamin

2015-02-01

Crowding refers to the inability to recognize an object in peripheral vision when other objects are presented nearby (Whitney & Levi Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 15, 160-168, 2011). A popular explanation of crowding is that features of the target and flankers are combined inappropriately when they are located within an integration field, thus impairing target recognition (Pelli, Palomares, & Majaj Journal of Vision, 4(12), 12:1136-1169, 2004). However, it remains unclear which features of the target and flankers are combined inappropriately to cause crowding (Levi Vision Research, 48, 635-654, 2008). For example, in a complex stimulus (e.g., a face), to what extent does crowding result from the integration of features at a part-based level or at the level of global processing of the configural appearance? In this study, we used a face categorization task and different types of flankers to examine how much the magnitude of visual crowding depends on the similarity of face parts or of global configurations. We created flankers with face-like features (e.g., the eyes, nose, and mouth) in typical and scrambled configurations to examine the impacts of part appearance and global configuration on the visual crowding of faces. Additionally, we used "electrical socket" flankers that mimicked first-order face configuration but had only schematic features, to examine the extent to which global face geometry impacted crowding. Our results indicated that both face parts and configurations contribute to visual crowding, suggesting that face similarity as realized under crowded conditions includes both aspects of facial appearance.

Global adaptive control for uncertain nonaffine nonlinear hysteretic systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Hua; Huang, Liangpei; Xiao, Dongming; Guo, Yong

2015-09-01

In this paper, the global output tracking is investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear hysteretic systems with nonaffine structures. By combining the solution properties of the hysteresis model with the novel backstepping approach, a robust adaptive control algorithm is developed without constructing a hysteresis inverse. The proposed control scheme is further modified to tackle the bounded disturbances by adaptively estimating their bounds. It is rigorously proven that the designed adaptive controllers can guarantee global stability of the closed-loop system. Two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stronger steerability criterion for more uncertain continuous-variable systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Priyanka; Pramanik, Tanumoy; Majumdar, A. S.

2015-10-01

We derive a fine-grained uncertainty relation for the measurement of two incompatible observables on a single quantum system of continuous variables, and show that continuous-variable systems are more uncertain than discrete-variable systems. Using the derived fine-grained uncertainty relation, we formulate a stronger steering criterion that is able to reveal the steerability of NOON states that has hitherto not been possible using other criteria. We further obtain a monogamy relation for our steering inequality which leads to an, in principle, improved lower bound on the secret key rate of a one-sided device independent quantum key distribution protocol for continuous variables.

Dealing with fixed emissions ceilings in an uncertain future: Offsetting under environmental integrity.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabian; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

2013-11-15

National emission ceilings are a policy instrument to reduce adverse environmental impacts of transboundary air pollution. Such ceilings for SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC are established, for example, in the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE, 1999) and the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive of the European Union (EC, 2001a, b). They prescribe for each pollutant a fixed upper limit on emissions for a specific year. Flexibility in achieving them could lower implementation costs if reality develops differently from what was foreseen during negotiations. In this paper, we explore the conditions under which emission reductions for one pollutant (e.g., SO2) could be offset by additional cuts of another pollutant (e.g., NOx) within the same country, without compromising the environmental improvements that are envisaged from the original set of emission ceilings. We employ the impact module of the GAINS (Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model to examine possible exchange rates across pollutants for the 2012 negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe. Our analysis shows that exchange rates that satisfy the environmental integrity condition can be established, but that their values vary substantially across countries. Extending the environmental integrity condition to downwind countries will require significantly higher exchange rates. We discuss aspects that decision makers would need to consider before adopting an offsetting schema for future international environmental agreements. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event-Based Robust Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Using Adaptive Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Qichao; Zhao, Dongbin; Wang, Ding

2018-01-01

In this paper, the robust control problem for a class of continuous-time nonlinear system with unmatched uncertainties is investigated using an event-based control method. First, the robust control problem is transformed into a corresponding optimal control problem with an augmented control and an appropriate cost function. Under the event-based mechanism, we prove that the solution of the optimal control problem can asymptotically stabilize the uncertain system with an adaptive triggering condition. That is, the designed event-based controller is robust to the original uncertain system. Note that the event-based controller is updated only when the triggering condition is satisfied, which can save the communication resources between the plant and the controller. Then, a single network adaptive dynamic programming structure with experience replay technique is constructed to approach the optimal control policies. The stability of the closed-loop system with the event-based control policy and the augmented control policy is analyzed using the Lyapunov approach. Furthermore, we prove that the minimal intersample time is bounded by a nonzero positive constant, which excludes Zeno behavior during the learning process. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score.

PubMed

Martinez-Garcia, M A; Athanazio, R A; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, F L; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, S Z

2017-01-01

Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P <0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score's simplicity and prognostic capacity for

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

PubMed Central

Martinez-Garcia, MA; Athanazio, RA; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, FL; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, SZ

2017-01-01

Background Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Objective Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. Methods The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. Results A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. Conclusion E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the