Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Carlson, Colin J.; Burgio, Kevin R.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Phillips, Anna J.; Bueno, Veronica M.; Clements, Christopher F.; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A.; Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C.; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C.; Proctor, Heather C.; Getz, Wayne M.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences. PMID:28913417

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate.

PubMed

Carlson, Colin J; Burgio, Kevin R; Dougherty, Eric R; Phillips, Anna J; Bueno, Veronica M; Clements, Christopher F; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Cumming, Graeme S; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C; Proctor, Heather C; Getz, Wayne M

2017-09-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

National Security and Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious...against scientific indications of global climate change , but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing...generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. This article

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat

Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

2016-01-01

Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

2011-01-01

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2016-01-01

Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

Improving Undergraduate Climate Change Literacy through Writing: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small Griswold, Jennifer D.

2017-01-01

A climate-literate population, capable of making informed decisions related to climate change, is of critical importance as society faces ever-increasing global temperatures and changes in the climate system. This project evaluates the effectiveness of a novel instructional approach that incorporates climate change science into a first-year…

Western water and climate change.

PubMed

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

2015-12-01

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

FACE-IT: Framework to Advance Climate, Economics, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J. W.; Jones, J.; Montella, R.

2013-12-01

Issues relating to climate change and food security require an understanding of the interaction between the natural world and human society over long time scales. Understanding climate change, its impacts on the natural world and society, and the tradeoffs inherent in societal responses demands an unprecedented degree of cooperation across academic fields. New data sources on expected future climate, soil characteristics, economic activity, historical weather, population, and land cover, provide a potential basis for this cooperation. New methods are needed for sharing within and across communities not only data but the software used to generate, synthesize, and analyze it. Progress on these research challenges is hindered by the extreme difficulties that researchers, collaborators, and the community experiences when they collaborate around data. Multiplicity of data formats; inadequate computational tools; difficulty in sharing data and programs, lack of incentives for pro-social behavior and large data volumes are among the technology barriers. The FACE-IT project at the University of Chicago, NASA, and University of Florida employs an integrated approach to cyberinfrastructure to advance the characterization of vulnerabilities, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation to climate change in human and environmental systems. Leveraging existing research cyberinfrastructure the project is creating a full-featured FACE-IT Platform prototype with new capabilities for ingesting, organizing, managing, analyzing and using large quantities of diverse data. The project team collaborates with two distinct interdisciplinary communities to create community specific FACE-IT Instances to both advance their research and enable at-scale evaluation of the utility of the FACE-IT approach. In this talk I will introduce the FACE-IT system and discuss early applications.

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

Using Regional Climate Projections to Guide Grassland Community Restoration in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Kane, Kristin; Debinski, Diane M.; Anderson, Chris; Scasta, John D.; Engle, David M.; Miller, James R.

2017-01-01

Grassland loss has been extensive worldwide, endangering the associated biodiversity and human well-being that are both dependent on these ecosystems. Ecologists have developed approaches to restore grassland communities and many have been successful, particularly where soils are rich, precipitation is abundant, and seeds of native plant species can be obtained. However, climate change adds a new filter needed in planning grassland restoration efforts. Potential responses of species to future climate conditions must also be considered in planning for long-term resilience. We demonstrate this methodology using a site-specific model and a maximum entropy approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for 33 grassland plant species in the tallgrass prairie region of the U.S. using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A1B and A2. The A1B scenario predicts an increase in temperature from 1.4 to 6.4°C, whereas the A2 scenario predicts temperature increases from 2 to 5.4°C and much greater CO2 emissions than the A1B scenario. Both scenarios predict these changes to occur by the year 2100. Model projections for 2040 under the A1B scenario predict that all but three modeled species will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Then by 2080, all species except for one will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Models run using the A2 scenario predict declines in habitat for just four species by 2040, but models predict that by 2080, habitat suitability will decline for all species. The A2 scenario appears based on our results to be the less severe climate change scenario for our species. Our results demonstrate that many common species, including grasses, forbs, and shrubs, are sensitive to climate change. Thus, grassland restoration alternatives should be evaluated based upon the long-term viability in the context of climate change projections and risk of plant species loss. PMID:28536591

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Johnson, Fred A.; Stith, Bradley M.; Bonneau, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Determining Water Quality Trends in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed in the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kynett, K.; Azimi-Gaylon, S.; Doidic, C.

2014-12-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas and is a resource of local, State, and national significance. The Delta is simultaneously the most critical component of California's water supply, a primary focus of the state's ecological conservation measures, and a vital resource deeply imperiled by degraded water quality. Delta waterbodies are identified as impaired by salinity, excess nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, pathogens, pesticides, heavy metals, and other contaminants. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the impacts of existing stressors in the Delta and magnify the challenges of managing this natural resource. A clear understanding of the current state of the watershed is needed to better inform scientists, decision makers, and the public about potential impacts from climate change. The Delta Watershed Initiative Network (Delta WIN) leverages the ecological benefits of healthy watersheds, and enhances, expands and creates opportunities for greater watershed health by coordinating with agencies, established programs, and local organizations. At this critical junction, Delta WIN is coordinating data integration and analysis to develop better understanding of the existing and emerging water quality concerns. As first steps, Delta WIN is integrating existing water quality data, analyzing trends, and monitoring to fill data gaps and to evaluate indicators of climate change impacts. Available data will be used for trend analysis; Delta WIN will continue to monitor where data is incomplete and new questions arise. Understanding how climate change conditions may affect water quality will be used to inform efforts to build resilience and maintain water quality levels which sustain aquatic life and human needs. Assessments of historical and new data will aid in recognition of potential climate change impacts and in initiating implementation of best management practices in collaboration with

Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change.

PubMed

Jewitt, Debbie; Goodman, Peter S; Erasmus, Barend F N; O'Connor, Timothy G; Witkowski, Ed T F

2017-05-01

Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewitt, Debbie; Goodman, Peter S.; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; O'Connor, Timothy G.; Witkowski, Ed T. F.

2017-05-01

Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

Climate Change Challenges for Extension Educators: Technical Capacity and Cultural Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becerra, Terrie A.; Middendorf, Gerad; Campbell, Amber; Tomlinson, Peter

2016-01-01

We surveyed Extension educators in the southern Great Plains about their attitudes and beliefs regarding climate change, their interactions with constituents surrounding climate change, and challenges they face in engaging constituents on the topic of climate change. Production-oriented and sociocultural challenges in meeting constituents'…

Climate change and the possible health effects on older Australians.

PubMed

Saniotis, Arthur; Irvine, Rod

2010-01-01

Climate change is an important issue for Australia. Climate change research forecasts that Australia will experience accelerated warming due to anthrogenic activities. Australia's aging society will face special challenges that demand current attention. This paper discusses two issues in relation to climate change and older Australians: first, pharmacology and autoregulation; and second, mental health among older Australians.

Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanner, Thomas; Lewis, David; Wrathall, David; Bronen, Robin; Cradock-Henry, Nick; Huq, Saleemul; Lawless, Chris; Nawrotzki, Raphael; Prasad, Vivek; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur; Alaniz, Ryan; King, Katherine; McNamara, Karen; Nadiruzzaman, Md.; Henly-Shepard, Sarah; Thomalla, Frank

2015-01-01

The resilience concept requires greater attention to human livelihoods if it is to address the limits to adaptation strategies and the development needs of the planet's poorest and most vulnerable people. Although the concept of resilience is increasingly informing research and policy, its transfer from ecological theory to social systems leads to weak engagement with normative, social and political dimensions of climate change adaptation. A livelihood perspective helps to strengthen resilience thinking by placing greater emphasis on human needs and their agency, empowerment and human rights, and considering adaptive livelihood systems in the context of wider transformational changes.

Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

PubMed

Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

2004-10-01

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

2008-12-01

Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

Undocumented migration in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

2016-01-01

In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification. PMID:27570840

Undocumented migration in response to climate change.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index ( WSDI ) and the precipitation during extremely wet days ( R99PTOT ). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wishart, D. N.

2015-12-01

Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-07-29

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established.

Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina

2017-01-01

Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established. PMID:28758917

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Climate change, wine, and conservation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

2013-04-23

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

2009-01-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

Challenges of climate change

PubMed Central

Husaini, Amjad M

2014-01-01

Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

More harmful climate change impacts in polluted forests – a review

Treesearch

E Paoletti; NE Grulke; A Bytnerowicz

2009-01-01

Forests are facing significant pressures from climate change and air pollution. Air pollution is the main driver of the ongoing climate change. Current knowledge suggests that climate change may become more harmful to pollution-affected forests, although the magnitude of these feedbacks is still to be determined. At present, the air pollutants of most concern to...

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

2009-01-01

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

ScienceCinema

Stocker, Thomas

2018-05-18

The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant–plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation–climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant–plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

PubMed Central

Butt, Nathalie; Pollock, Laura J; McAlpine, Clive A

2013-01-01

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental

Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

2009-01-01

The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

2010-06-01

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

Conservation at a slow pace: terrestrial gastropods facing fast-changing climate.

PubMed

Nicolai, Annegret; Ansart, Armelle

2017-01-01

The climate is changing rapidly, and terrestrial ectotherms are expected to be particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature and water regime, but also to an increase in extreme weather events in temperate regions. Physiological responses of terrestrial gastropods to climate change are poorly studied. This is surprising, because they are of biodiversity significance among litter-dwelling species, playing important roles in ecosystem function, with numerous species being listed as endangered and requiring efficient conservation management. Through a summary of our ecophysiological work on snail and slug species, we gained some insights into physiological and behavioural responses to climate change that we can organize into the following four threat categories. (i) Winter temperature and snow cover. Terrestrial gastropods use different strategies to survive sub-zero temperatures in buffered refuges, such as the litter or the soil. Absence of the insulating snow cover exposes species to high variability in temperature. The extent of specific cold tolerance might influence the potential of local extinction, but also of invasion. (ii) Drought and high temperature. Physiological responses involve high-cost processes that protect against heat and dehydration. Some species decrease activity periods, thereby reducing foraging and reproduction time. Related costs and physiological limits are expected to increase mortality. (iii) Extreme events. Although some terrestrial gastropod communities can have a good resilience to fire, storms and flooding, an increase in the frequency of those events might lead to community impoverishment. (iv) Habitat loss and fragmentation. Given that terrestrial gastropods are poorly mobile, landscape alteration generally results in an increased risk of local extinction, but responses are highly variable between species, requiring studies at the population level. There is a great need for studies involving non-invasive methods on the

Professional Development Design Considerations in Climate Change Education: Teacher Enactment and Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla

2018-01-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology,…

How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delphine, Deryng; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alexander C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.;

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R.

2009-12-01

disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2013-05-01

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

Saving Grace - A Climate Change Documentary Education Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.; Graham, J.; Little, L.; Hoggan, J. C.

2012-12-01

Saving Grace conveys climate change knowledge from the best international scientists and social scientists using a series of new media formats. An Education and Communication Plan (ECP) has been developed to disseminate climate change knowledge on impacts, mitigation and adaptation for individuals, and for all sectors of society. The research team is seeking contacts with science and social science colleagues around the world to provide the knowledge base for the ECP. Poverty enslaves…and climate change has, and will, spread and deepen poverty to hundreds of millions of people, primarily in the developing world. And make no mistake; we are enslaving hundreds of millions of people in a depressing and debilitating poverty that in numbers will far surpass the horrors of the slave trade of past centuries. Saving Grace is the story of that poverty - and minimizing that poverty. Saving Grace stars the best of the world's climate researchers. Saving Grace presents the science; who, where and why of greenhouse gases that drive climate change; current and projected impacts of a changing climate around the world; and most important, solutions to the climate change challenges we face.

Climate change and allergic disease.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Truckner, Robert T; Weber, Richard W; Peden, David B

2008-09-01

Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.

Food security in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

2012-01-01

By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

Exploring the role of traditional ecological knowledge in climate change initiatives

Treesearch

Kirsten Vinyeta; Kathy Lynn

2013-01-01

Indigenous populations are projected to face disproportionate impacts as a result of climate change in comparison to nonindigenous populations. For this reason, many American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are identifying and implementing culturally appropriate strategies to assess climate impacts and adapt to projected changes. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK...

Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Vaille

2015-01-01

Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to…

Climate change games as tools for education and engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jason S.; Lee, Joey J.

2015-05-01

Scientists, educators and policymakers continue to face challenges when it comes to finding effective strategies to engage the public on climate change. We argue that games on the subject of climate change are well-suited to address these challenges because they can serve as effective tools for education and engagement. Recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the development of such games, many featuring innovative designs that blur traditional boundaries (for example, those that involve social media, alternative reality games, or those that involve direct action upon the real world). Here, we present an overview of the types of climate change game currently available, the benefits and trade-offs of their use, and reasons why they hold such promise for education and engagement regarding climate change.

Flow Down! Can managing forests help maintain water supplies in the face of climate change?

Treesearch

Stephanie Laseter; Chelcy Miniat; James Vose

2014-01-01

Climate change can have a direct and indirect impacts on water resources. Direct impacts of climate change can be seen by the presence of more extreme weather events. Extreme weather events include things like heat waves and droughts. Droughts have a direct impact on water and water supply. The indirect impacts of climate change on water resources relate to temperature...

Bacteria and Fungi Respond Differently to Multifactorial Climate Change in a Temperate Heathland, Traced with 13C-Glycine and FACE CO2

PubMed Central

Andresen, Louise C.; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Bol, Roland; Selsted, Merete B.; Ambus, Per; Michelsen, Anders

2014-01-01

It is vital to understand responses of soil microorganisms to predicted climate changes, as these directly control soil carbon (C) dynamics. The rate of turnover of soil organic carbon is mediated by soil microorganisms whose activity may be affected by climate change. After one year of multifactorial climate change treatments, at an undisturbed temperate heathland, soil microbial community dynamics were investigated by injection of a very small concentration (5.12 µg C g−1 soil) of 13C-labeled glycine (13C2, 99 atom %) to soils in situ. Plots were treated with elevated temperature (+1°C, T), summer drought (D) and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (510 ppm [CO2]), as well as combined treatments (TD, TCO2, DCO2 and TDCO2). The 13C enrichment of respired CO2 and of phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) was determined after 24 h. 13C-glycine incorporation into the biomarker PLFAs for specific microbial groups (Gram positive bacteria, Gram negative bacteria, actinobacteria and fungi) was quantified using gas chromatography-combustion-stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Gram positive bacteria opportunistically utilized the freshly added glycine substrate, i.e. incorporated 13C in all treatments, whereas fungi had minor or no glycine derived 13C-enrichment, hence slowly reacting to a new substrate. The effects of elevated CO2 did suggest increased direct incorporation of glycine in microbial biomass, in particular in G+ bacteria, in an ecosystem subjected to elevated CO2. Warming decreased the concentration of PLFAs in general. The FACE CO2 was 13C-depleted (δ13C = 12.2‰) compared to ambient (δ13C = ∼−8‰), and this enabled observation of the integrated longer term responses of soil microorganisms to the FACE over one year. All together, the bacterial (and not fungal) utilization of glycine indicates substrate preference and resource partitioning in the microbial community, and therefore suggests a diversified response pattern to future

Conservation at a slow pace: terrestrial gastropods facing fast-changing climate

PubMed Central

Ansart, Armelle

2017-01-01

Abstract The climate is changing rapidly, and terrestrial ectotherms are expected to be particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature and water regime, but also to an increase in extreme weather events in temperate regions. Physiological responses of terrestrial gastropods to climate change are poorly studied. This is surprising, because they are of biodiversity significance among litter-dwelling species, playing important roles in ecosystem function, with numerous species being listed as endangered and requiring efficient conservation management. Through a summary of our ecophysiological work on snail and slug species, we gained some insights into physiological and behavioural responses to climate change that we can organize into the following four threat categories. (i) Winter temperature and snow cover. Terrestrial gastropods use different strategies to survive sub-zero temperatures in buffered refuges, such as the litter or the soil. Absence of the insulating snow cover exposes species to high variability in temperature. The extent of specific cold tolerance might influence the potential of local extinction, but also of invasion. (ii) Drought and high temperature. Physiological responses involve high-cost processes that protect against heat and dehydration. Some species decrease activity periods, thereby reducing foraging and reproduction time. Related costs and physiological limits are expected to increase mortality. (iii) Extreme events. Although some terrestrial gastropod communities can have a good resilience to fire, storms and flooding, an increase in the frequency of those events might lead to community impoverishment. (iv) Habitat loss and fragmentation. Given that terrestrial gastropods are poorly mobile, landscape alteration generally results in an increased risk of local extinction, but responses are highly variable between species, requiring studies at the population level. There is a great need for studies involving non-invasive methods on the

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest

Sustained Large-Scale Collective Climate Action Supported by Effective Climate Change Education Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.

2017-12-01

Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be

Keeping Pace with Climate Change: Habitat Protection in the Face of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flitcroft, R. L.; Burnett, K.; Giannico, G.

2014-12-01

Estuaries provide critical habitat for many economically and culturally important species. In the Pacific Northwest, intertidal and subtidal areas provide critical habitat for production of native and commercial oysters (Olympia oyster Ostrea lurida and Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, respectively) that in turn provide refuge and rearing habitat for Dungeness Crab, Metacarcinus magister. Environments ranging from subtidal through freshwater zones provide nursery areas for juvenile salmonids at different development stages in their life history. Most Oregon estuaries have been significantly altered by humans over the past century, reducing the quantity and diversity of available habitats. Management agencies have responded with projects to restore and enhance estuarine habitats. Unfortunately, future climate change and sea-level rise could render many current restoration projects ineffective over time. Planning for habitat restoration that keeps pace with climate change will be critical to the sustainable production of seafood and maintenance of ecosystem function. However, land managers and citizens lack the spatially-explicit data needed to incorporate the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise into planning for habitat improvement projects in estuarine areas. To meet this need, we developed simple models using LiDAR to characterize the geomorphologies of multiple Oregon estuaries. We were able to map the margin of current mean high tide, and contour intervals associated with different potential increases in mean high tide. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting changes in estuary shape. For each estuary, we assessed changes in the amount and complexity of edge habitats. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.

PubMed

Dhara, V Ramana; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2013-12-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: Implications for health care providers

PubMed Central

Dhara, V. Ramana; Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2013-01-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients. PMID:24521625

Climate Change and Risks to National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

Fostering Climate Change Literacy Through Rural-Urban Collaborations and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.; Mandryk, C.

2012-12-01

Three universities, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, shared expertise and resources to expand the spectrum of climate change topics offered at these institutions. Through this collaboration, four independent but linked modules that incorporate geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing desktop and web-based tools and resources (e.g., NASA, NOAA, USGS, and a variety of universities and organizations) have been developed for use by instructors in all three institutions. Module 1 theme is an introduction to sustainability, climate, with an introduction to remote sensing and online GIS tools. The theme for Module 2 is water resources while Module 3 explores local meteorological data and global climate change models. The last module focuses on food production and independent research building on the urban farm movement in New York City and the agricultural stronghold of Nebraska. The hybrid online and face-face course, Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability, was piloted Fall 2012 in a jointly-taught course offered through UNL and Brooklyn College. The online portion was offered through the CAMEL Climate Change website to foster interactions between the rural Nebraska and urban New York City students. A major objective of the course materials is to foster rural-urban student exchanges while motivating students to make connections between climate change and the potential impacts on health, food, and water in their local communities, the nation and around the world. The research component of the project focuses on understanding the importance of spatial literacy in climate change understanding, and is supported by assessment instruments designed specifically for this course. In addition, the formal evaluation will determine whether our rural-urban, local-global approach will empower students to better understand the causes and impacts of climate change.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

PubMed

Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Lepers, Christelle; Durham, Jo; Bell, Johann; Durand, Alexis; Lal, Padma Narsey; Souares, Yvan

2014-12-11

The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.

Facing Climate Change: Connecting Coastal Communities with Place-Based Ocean Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelz, M.; Dewey, R. K.; Hoeberechts, M.; McLean, M. A.; Brown, J. C.; Ewing, N.; Riddell, D. J.

2016-12-01

As coastal communities face a wide range of environmental changes, including threats from climate change, real-time data from cabled observatories can be used to support community members in making informed decisions about their coast and marine resources. Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) deploys and operates an expanding network of community observatories in the Arctic and coastal British Columbia, which enable communities to monitor real-time and historical data from the local marine environment. Community observatories comprise an underwater cabled seafloor platform and shore station equipped with a variety of sensors that collect environmental data 24/7. It is essential that data being collected by ONC instruments are relevant to community members and can contribute to priorities identified within the community. Using a community-based science approach, ONC is engaging local parties at all stages of each project from location planning, to instrument deployment, to data analysis. Alongside the science objectives, place-based educational programming is being developed with local educators and students. As coastal populations continue to grow and our use of and impacts on the ocean increase, it is vital that global citizens develop an understanding that the health of the ocean reflects the health of the planet. This presentation will focus on programs developed by ONC emphasizing the connection to place and local relevance with an emphasis on Indigenous knowledge. Building programs which embrace multiple perspectives is effective both in making ocean science more relevant to Indigenous students and in linking place-based knowledge to ocean science. The inclusion of Indigenous Knowledge into science-based monitoring programs also helps develop a more complete understanding of local conditions. We present a case study from the Canadian Arctic, in which ONC is working with Inuit community members to develop a snow and ice monitoring program to assist with predictions and

Climate change and tools for collective action

EPA Science Inventory

As climate change alters the quality and quantity of water in local ecosystems, we will be faced with management challenges. Research experience in the St. Louis River Area of Concern would indicate that collective action is possible in response to the threat of degraded water qu...

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil

PubMed Central

Costa, Wilian França; Cordeiro, Guaraci Duran; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera Lucia; Saraiva, Antonio Mauro; Biesmeijer, Jacobus; Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro

2017-01-01

Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to

Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil.

PubMed

Giannini, Tereza Cristina; Costa, Wilian França; Cordeiro, Guaraci Duran; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera Lucia; Saraiva, Antonio Mauro; Biesmeijer, Jacobus; Garibaldi, Lucas Alejandro

2017-01-01

Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to

Role-play simulations for climate change adaptation education and engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumore, Danya; Schenk, Todd; Susskind, Lawrence

2016-08-01

In order to effectively adapt to climate change, public officials and other stakeholders need to rapidly enhance their understanding of local risks and their ability to collaboratively and adaptively respond to them. We argue that science-based role-play simulation exercises -- a type of 'serious game' involving face-to-face mock decision-making -- have considerable potential as education and engagement tools for enhancing readiness to adapt. Prior research suggests role-play simulations and other serious games can foster public learning and encourage collective action in public policy-making contexts. However, the effectiveness of such exercises in the context of climate change adaptation education and engagement has heretofore been underexplored. We share results from two research projects that demonstrate the effectiveness of role-play simulations in cultivating climate change adaptation literacy, enhancing collaborative capacity and facilitating social learning. Based on our findings, we suggest such exercises should be more widely embraced as part of adaptation professionals' education and engagement toolkits.

Readying health services for climate change: a policy framework for regional development.

PubMed

Bell, Erica

2011-05-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change.

Readying Health Services for Climate Change: A Policy Framework for Regional Development

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change. PMID:21421953

Contemplating the Future: Building Student Resilience in Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change research has largely focused on the biophysical, economic, and political aspects of the phenomenon, its projected impacts, and the possibilities for adaptation (Carey et al. 2014; Castree et al. 2014). In the classroom, too, climate change is generally presented as a scientific, technological, political, and economic challenge. However, defining climate change as physical challenge, divorced from its cultural causes and responses, forecloses some pathways of inquiry and limits the possibilities for adaptation (Adger et al. 2013). Recent perspectives by the environmental historian Mark Carey and colleagues (2014) and by the geographer Noel Castree and colleagues (2014) contend that ethnographic, narrative, social scientific, and humanistic insights are necessary additions to the climate change policy process and can contribute to deliberate, resilient responses to climate change. Among the humanistic insights needed are strategies and practices to maintain fortitude and persistence in the midst of dispiriting ecological trends. Students facing the "gloom and doom" of climate change data in environmental studies courses can experience negative states of mind such as denial, despair, burnout, and grief. Emerging research, however, demonstrates how contemplative practice can shift consciousness and promote resilience. Contemplative practices are those that consciously direct calm, focused attention. Such practices can build internal resilience, by promoting a greater sense of calm and well-being, decreasing stress, and sharpening focus and concentration. In addition, contemplative practices improve relationships with other people, through increasing compassion and flexibility in thinking. They also strengthen relationships with the surrounding world by increasing our ability to question, explore, and cope with rapid change and complexity. This presentation provides a context for incorporating contemplative practices, including mindfulness exercises

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Treesearch

Nicole M. Herman-Mercer; Elli Matkin; Melinda J. Laituri; Ryan C. Toohey; Maggie Massey; Kelly Elder; Paul F. Schuster; Edda A. Mutter

2016-01-01

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation...

Climate change and the Rocky Mountains: Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrne, James M.; Fagre, Daniel B.; MacDonald, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2014-01-01

For at least half of the year, the Rocky Mountains are shrouded in snow that feeds a multitude of glaciers. Snow and ice eventually melt into rivers that have eroded deep valleys that contain rich aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Because the Rocky Mountains are the major divide on the continent, rainfall and melt water from glaciers and snowfields feed major river systems that run to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic oceans. The Rockies truly are the water tower for much of North America, and part of the Alpine backbone of North and South America. For purposes of this chapter, we limit our discussion to the Rocky Mountains of the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, and the U.S. states of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado. Similar to other mountain systems, the altitude of the Rocky Mountains condenses the weather, climate and ecosystems of thousands of kilometres of latitude into very short vertical distances. In one good day, a strong hiker can journey by foot from the mid-latitude climates of the great plains of North America to an arctic climate near the top of Rocky Mountain peaks. The steep climatic gradients of mountain terrain create some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world, but it is those rapid changes in microclimate and ecology that make mountains sensitive to climate change. The energy budget in mountains varies dramatically not only with elevation but with slope and aspect. A modest change in the slope of the terrain over short distances may radically change the solar radiation available in that location. Shaded or north facing slopes have very different microclimates than the same elevations in a sunlit location, or for a hill slope facing south. The complexities associated with the mountain terrain of the Rockies compound complexities of weather and climate to create diverse, amazing ecosystems. This chapter addresses the impacts of climate change on Rocky Mountain ecosystems in light of their complexities and

Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Montoya, José M.; Raffaelli, Dave

2010-01-01

Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change. PMID:20513709

A Culturally Relevant Teacher Professional Development for Teaching Climate Change to Native American Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, Anne Liu; Honwad, Sameer; McLain, Ed

2017-01-01

The science of climate change is a complex subject to teach. Teachers find climate change a challenging topic to teach due to a myriad of reasons. Gayford, 2010 describes some of the challenges teachers face while teaching climate change science as "first, the controversial nature of the topic; second, it does not relate well to the normal…

Forecasting Climate-Induced Ecosystem Changes on Military Installations

Treesearch

James D. Westervelt; William W. Hargrove

2011-01-01

Military installation training lands must be managed to support species at risk as well as to be effective training environments for soldiers. Forecasts from various global climate change models suggest that the habitats associated with some military training installations will face pressures that induce biome-shifts, invasive species, loss of habitat, and changes in...

Using biological data to test climate change refugia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; Maher, S. P.

2015-12-01

The concept of refugia has been discussed from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to address how populations persisted during periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, several studies have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify locations that are buffered from climate change effects so as to favor greater persistence of valued resources relative to other areas. Refugia are now being discussed among natural resource agencies as a potential adaptation option in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Using downscaled climate data, we identified hypothetical refugial meadows in the Sierra Nevada and then tested them using survey and genetic data from Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi) populations. We predicted that refugial meadows would show higher genetic diversity, higher rates of occupancy and lower rates of extirpation over time. At each step of the research, we worked with managers to ensure the largest impact. Although no panacea, identifying climate change refugia could be an important strategy for prioritizing habitats for management intervention in order to conserve populations. This research was supported by the California LCC, the Northeast Climate Science Center, and NSF.

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-01-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was…

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2006-01-01

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.

PubMed

Fernandino, Gerson; Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

2018-06-01

Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

2012-12-01

As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

PubMed

Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

2016-04-01

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

Climate change and outdoor recreation participation in the Southern United States

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Neelam Poudyal; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Lynne Seymour; H. Ken Cordell

2014-01-01

In this chapter we begin to assess the potential effects of climate change on future outdoor recreation in the South, a region spanning 13 states from Virginia to Texas (Chapter 1). Our goal is to provide some useful insights about future natural resource-based recreation-an important nontimber product derived from southern forests-in the face of climate change. We...

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Taking a climate chance: a procedural critique of Vietnam's climate change strategy.

PubMed

Fortier, François

2010-01-01

This article asks through what processes and for which interests the emerging Vietnamese climate change strategy is being designed, and if, ultimately, it is likely or not to be effective in the face of the looming threat. Through a review of an emerging body of literature and field observations, the paper finds the strategy partial and problematic in several ways. Its technocratic process prevents a pluralist representation of interests, obfuscating and perpetuating sectorial ones, at the expense of a more transparent and democratic resource allocation. The strategy therefore reflects and reinforces existing power relations in both politics and production. It feeds into a business-as-usual complacency, protecting national and international interests vested in unchallenged continuity, even when considering post-carbon technological fixes, which largely serve to expand capital accumulation opportunities. The article concludes that the national climate change strategy provides an illusion of intervention and security, but largely fails to identify and mitigate the underlying causes of climate change, or to lay the ground for a robust mid- and long-term adaptation strategy that can cope with yet unknown levels of climatic and other structural changes.

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J

2015-01-01

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Sammy L.

2010-01-01

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Climate Change

MedlinePlus

... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

Climate change adaptation benefits of potential conservation partnerships.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Theobald, David M

2018-01-01

We evaluate the world terrestrial network of protected areas (PAs) for its partnership potential in responding to climate change. That is, if a PA engaged in collaborative, trans-boundary management of species, by investing in conservation partnerships with neighboring areas, what climate change adaptation benefits might accrue? We consider core tenets of conservation biology related to protecting large areas with high environmental heterogeneity and low climate change velocity and ask how a series of biodiversity adaptation indicators change across spatial scales encompassing potential PA and non-PA partners. Less than 1% of current world terrestrial PAs equal or exceed the size of established and successful conservation partnerships. Partnering at this scale would increase the biodiversity adaptation indicators by factors up to two orders of magnitude, compared to a null model in which each PA is isolated. Most partnership area surrounding PAs is comprised of non-PAs (70%), indicating the importance of looking beyond the current network of PAs when promoting climate change adaptation. Given monumental challenges with PA-based species conservation in the face of climate change, partnerships provide a logical and achievable strategy for helping areas adapt. Our findings identify where strategic partnering efforts in highly vulnerable areas of the world may prove critical in safeguarding biodiversity.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

PubMed

Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

2017-04-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Genecological approaches to predicting the effects of climate change on plant populations

Treesearch

Francis F. Kilkenny

2015-01-01

Climate change threatens native plant populations and plant communities globally. It is critical that land managers have a clear understanding of climate change impacts on plant species and populations so that restoration efforts can be adjusted accordingly. This paper reviews the develop.ment and use of seed transfer guidelines for restoration in the face of global...

The Influence of Causal Knowledge on the Willingness to Change Attitude towards Climate Change: Results from an Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They…

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

2017-01-01

In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

Is Ignorance of Climate Change Culpable?

PubMed

Robichaud, Philip

2017-10-01

Sometimes ignorance is an excuse. If an agent did not know and could not have known that her action would realize some bad outcome, then it is plausible to maintain that she is not to blame for realizing that outcome, even when the act that leads to this outcome is wrong. This general thought can be brought to bear in the context of climate change insofar as we think (a) that the actions of individual agents play some role in realizing climate harms and (b) that these actions are apt targets for being considered right or wrong. Are agents who are ignorant about climate change and the way their actions contribute to it excused because of their ignorance, or is their ignorance culpable? In this paper I examine these questions from the perspective of recent developments in the theories of responsibility for ignorant action and characterize their verdicts. After developing some objections to existing attempts to explore these questions, I characterize two influential theories of moral responsibility and discuss their implications for three different types of ignorance about climate change. I conclude with some recommendations for how we should react to the face of the theories' conflicting verdicts. The answer to the question posed in the title, then, is: "Well, it's complicated."

Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2013-01-01

Changing climate may pose a threat to forest tree species, forcing three potential population-level responses: toleration/adaptation, movement to suitable environmental conditions, or local extirpation. Assessments that prioritize and classify tree species for management and conservation activities in the face of climate change will need to incorporate estimates of the...

The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

2013-01-01

The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

Dangerous climate change and collective action. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos, and Francisco C. Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-12-01

Climate change perhaps is the greatest collective action problem mankind has ever faced and the international community is still at a loss for how to get the ever rising greenhouse gas emissions under control. Does the risk of crossing a "dangerous" climate threshold improve the prospects of collective action?

Prioritization of gene conservation activities in the face of changing climates

Treesearch

J. Bradley St.Clair; Andy Bower; Vicky Erickson; Glenn Howe

2017-01-01

Several analyses have been done or are underway to evaluate the vulnerability of individual forest tree species to climate change. Species vulnerability assessments allow managers to allocate limited resources to the management of those species that are most threatened. But we also know that threats to individual populations of species may vary across the landscape,...

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Challenges for Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs In the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, R. K.; Elliff, C. I.

2014-12-01

Coral reefs provide many ecosystem services of which coastal populations are especially dependent upon, both in cases of extreme events and in daily life. However, adaptation to climate change is still relatively unknown territory regarding the ecosystem services provided by coastal environments, such as coral reefs. Management strategies usually consider climate change as a distant issue and rarely include ecosystem services in decision-making. Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable environments to climate change, considering the impact that increased ocean temperature and acidity have on the organisms that compose this ecosystem. If no actions are taken, the most likely scenario to occur will be of extreme decline in the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. Loss of biodiversity due to the pressures of ocean warming and acidification will lead to increased price of seafood products, negative impact on food security, and ecological imbalances. Also, sea-level rise and fragile structures due to carbonate dissolution will increase vulnerability to storms, which can lead to shoreline erosion and ultimately threaten coastal communities. Both these conditions will undoubtedly affect recreation and tourism, which are often the most important use values in the case of coral reef systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change must take on an ecosystem-based approach with continuous monitoring programs, so that multiple ecosystem services are considered and not only retrospective trends are analyzed. Brazilian coral reefs have been monitored on a regular basis since 2000 and, considering that these marginal coral reefs of the eastern Atlantic are naturally under stressful conditions (e.g. high sedimentation rates), inshore reefs of Brazil, such as those in Tinharé-Boipeba, have shown lower vitality rates due to greater impacts from the proximity to the coastal area (e.g. pollution, overfishing, sediment run-off). This chronic negative impact must be addressed

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

2009-01-01

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

PubMed Central

Brook, Barry W.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Pressey, Robert L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E.

2016-01-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. PMID:27729484

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Brook, Barry W; Hoskin, Conrad J; Pressey, Robert L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E

2016-10-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. © 2016 The Author(s).

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-04-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was designed around core elements of successful environmental professional development programs and aligned with practices advocated in benchmarked science standards. Data were collected from multiple sources including observations of professional development events, participants' reflections on their learning, and collection of instructional units designed during the Academy. Data were also collected from a focal case study teacher in a middle school setting. Case study data included classroom observations, teacher interviews, and student beliefs toward climate change. Results indicated that the Climate Academy fostered increased learning among participants of both climate science content and pedagogical strategies for teaching about climate change. Additionally, results indicated that participants applied their new learning in the design of climate change instructional units. Finally, results from the case study indicated positive impacts on student beliefs and greater awareness about climate change. Results have implications for the design of professional development programs on climate change, a topic included for the first time in national standards.

Assessing Student Knowledge of Chemistry and Climate Science Concepts Associated with Climate Change: Resources to Inform Teaching and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Versprille, Ashley; Zabih, Adam; Holme, Thomas A.; McKenzie, Lallie; Mahaffy, Peter; Martin, Brian; Towns, Marcy

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most critical problems facing citizens today. Chemistry faculty are presented with the problem of making general chemistry content simultaneously relevant and interesting. Using climate science to teach chemistry allows faculty to help students learn chemistry content in a rich context. Concepts related to…

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.

PubMed

DAS, Bidhan C

2009-06-01

It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country. © 2009 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Water Planning in Phoenix: Managing Risk in the Face of Climatic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.

2009-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) was founded in 2004 to develop scientifically-credible support tools to improve water management decisions in the face of growing climatic uncertainty and rapid urbanization in metropolitan Phoenix. At the center of DCDC's effort is WaterSim, a model that integrates information about water supply from groundwater, the Colorado River, and upstream watersheds and water demand from land use change and population growth. Decision levers enable users to manipulate model outcomes in response to climate change scenarios, drought conditions, population growth rates, technology innovations, lifestyle changes, and policy decisions. WaterSim allows users to examine the risks of water shortage from global climate change, the tradeoffs between groundwater sustainability and lifestyle choices, the effects of various policy decisions, and the consequences of delaying policy for the exposure to risk. WaterSim is an important point of contact for DCDC’s relationships with local decision makers. Knowledge, tools, and visualizations are co-produced—by scientists and policy makers, and the Center’s social scientists mine this co-production process for new insights about model development and application. WaterSim is less a static scientific product and more a dynamic process of engagement between decision makers and scientists.

Cascabel prescribed fire long-term watershed study: an opportunity to monitor climate change

Treesearch

Gerald Gottfried; Daniel Neary; Peter Ffolliott; Karen Koestner

2012-01-01

Experimental watershed studies can provide answers to new challenges facing land managers and society including the impacts of fires and climate change on upstream and regional hydrology. The Cascabel Watersheds long-term prescribed fire study provides a unique opportunity to monitor climate change because of its location in an oak savanna situated between deserts or...

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Extension Agents' Awareness of Climate Change in Ethiopia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abegaz, Dagmawi M.; Wims, Padraig

2015-01-01

Purpose: The fact that highly vulnerable countries like Ethiopia face far greater challenges from climate change makes agricultural adaptation a top priority. Even though the public agriculture extension system in Ethiopia plays a central role in facilitating and supporting adaptation, very limited information is available on how aware the actual…

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2017-01-01

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

Treesearch

Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

2014-01-01

Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.

PubMed

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-24

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system.

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

PubMed Central

Maiorano, Luigi; Falcucci, Alessandra; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Psomas, Achilleas; Pottier, Julien; Baisero, Daniele; Rondinini, Carlo; Guisan, Antoine; Boitani, Luigi

2011-01-01

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition. PMID:21844047

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats in the U.S.

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Curtis H. Flather; Marni Koopman

2008-01-01

Resource managers face many challenges in developing management recommendations for wildlife habitat under a changing climate. Our research results offer states a more consistent and holistic approach to analyzing potential threats of climate change to terrestrial wildlife habitat. This process integrates a review of the scientific literature, the State Wildlife Action...

Climate change: a call for adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected climate change is expected to substantially affect crop and livestock production, and water availability and quality. Concomitantly, the agricultural community is faced with a challenge of increasing food production by more than 70% to meet demand from global population increase by the mid...

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

Facing climate change in forests and fields: U.S. Forest Service taps into science-management partnerships

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound—from shifting species’ ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Climate change and sustainable food production.

PubMed

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J

2013-02-01

One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, 'food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Public Engagement on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, J.

2011-12-01

Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Fracking in the face of global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

2015-12-01

Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Milfont, Taciano L.; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Bilewicz, Michał; Doron, Guy; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B.; Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Guan, Yanjun; Johansson, Lars-Olof; Pasquali, Carlota; Corral-Verdugo, Victor; Aragones, Juan Ignacio; Utsugi, Akira; Demarque, Christophe; Otto, Siegmar; Park, Joonha; Soland, Martin; Steg, Linda; González, Roberto; Lebedeva, Nadezhda; Madsen, Ole Jacob; Wagner, Claire; Akotia, Charity S.; Kurz, Tim; Saiz, José L.; Schultz, P. Wesley; Einarsdóttir, Gró; Saviolidis, Nina M.

2016-02-01

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.

2016-01-01

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.

PubMed

Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah

2012-09-03

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and

Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

2011-12-01

The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

The Intersection of National Security and Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hund, Gretchen; Fankhauser, Jana G.; Kurzrok, Andrew J.

On June 4, 2014, the Henry M. Jackson Foundation and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory hosted a groundbreaking symposium in Seattle, Washington, that brought together 36 leaders from federal agencies, state and local governments, NGOs, business, and academia. The participants examined approaches and tools to help decision makers make informed choices about the climate and security risks they face. The following executive summary is based on the day’s discussions and examines the problem of climate change and its impact on national security, the responses to date, and future considerations.

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs.

PubMed

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-09-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change.

Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

PubMed

Sakellari, Maria

2015-10-01

Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Flexible stocking as a strategy for enhancing ranch profitability in the face of a changing and variable climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Human Behavioral Contributions to Climate Change: Psychological and Contextual Drivers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swim, Janet K.; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S.

2011-01-01

We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact,…

Examining the Effectiveness of Climate Change Frames in the Face of a Climate Change Denial Counter-Frame.

PubMed

McCright, Aaron M; Charters, Meghan; Dentzman, Katherine; Dietz, Thomas

2016-01-01

Prior research on the influence of various ways of framing anthropogenic climate change (ACC) do not account for the organized ACC denial in the U.S. media and popular culture, and thus may overestimate these frames' influence in the general public. We conducted an experiment to examine how Americans' ACC views are influenced by four promising frames for urging action on ACC (economic opportunity, national security, Christian stewardship, and public health)-when these frames appear with an ACC denial counter-frame. This is the first direct test of how exposure to an ACC denial message influences Americans' ACC views. Overall, these four positive frames have little to no effect on ACC beliefs. But exposure to an ACC denial counter-frame does significantly reduce respondents' belief in the reality of ACC, belief about the veracity of climate science, awareness of the consequences of ACC, and support for aggressively attempting to reduce our nation's GHG emissions in the near future. Furthermore, as expected by the Anti-Reflexivity Thesis, exposure to the ACC denial counter-frame has a disproportionate influence on the ACC views of conservatives (than on those of moderates and liberals), effectively activating conservatives' underlying propensity for anti-reflexivity. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

The sociological imagination in a time of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norgaard, Kari Marie

2018-04-01

Despite rising calls for social science knowledge in the face of climate change, too few sociologists have been engaged in the conversations about how we have arrived at such perilous climatic circumstances, or how society can change course. With its attention to the interactive dimensions of social order between individuals, social norms, cultural systems and political economy, the discipline of sociology is uniquely positioned to be an important leader in this conversation. In this paper I suggest that in order to understand and respond to climate change we need two kinds of imagination: 1) to see the relationships between human actions and their impacts on earth's biophysical system (ecological imagination) and 2) to see the relationships within society that make up this environmentally damaging social structure (sociological imagination). The scientific community has made good progress in developing our ecological imagination but still need to develop a sociological imagination. The application of a sociological imagination allows for a powerfully reframing of four key problems in the current interdisciplinary conversation on climate change: why climate change is happening, how we are being impacted, why we have failed to successfully respond so far, and how we might be able to effectively do so. I visit each of these four questions describing the current understanding and show the importance of the sociological imagination and other insights from the field of sociology. I close with reflections on current limitations in sociology's potential to engage climate change and the Anthropocene.

Indigenous experiences in the U.S. with climate change and environmental stewardship in the Anthropocene

Treesearch

Karletta Chief; John J. Daigle; Kathy Lynn; Kyle Powys Whyte

2014-01-01

The recognition of climate change issues facing tribal communities and indigenous peoples in the United States is growing, and understanding its impacts is rooted in indigenous ethical perspectives and systems of ecological knowledge. This foundation presents a context and guide for contemporary indigenous approaches to address climate change impacts that are...

Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne M

2005-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change. PMID:15757363

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

PubMed

Wilmers, Christopher C; Getz, Wayne M

2005-04-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

Treesearch

John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas Howe

2011-01-01

Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

PubMed

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, Oliver; Hambira, Wame L.

2018-06-01

In semi-arid developing countries, most poor people depend on contaminated surface or groundwater resources since they do not have access to safe and centrally supplied water. These water resources are threatened by several factors that include high evapotranspiration rates. In the Okavango Delta region in the north-western Botswana, communities facing insufficient centrally supplied water rely mainly on the surface water resources of the Delta. The Delta loses about 98% of its water through evapotranspiration. However, the 2% remaining water rescues the communities facing insufficient water from the main stream water supply. To understand the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources, this study analysed trends in the main climatic parameters needed as input variables in evapotranspiration models. The Mann Kendall test was used in the analysis. Trend analysis is crucial since it reveals the direction of trends in the climatic parameters, which is helpful in determining the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The main climatic parameters required as input variables in evapotranspiration models that were of interest in this study were wind speeds, solar radiation and relative humidity. Very little research has been conducted on these climatic parameters in the Okavango Delta region. The conducted trend analysis was more on wind speeds, which had relatively longer data records than the other two climatic parameters of interest. Generally, statistically significant increasing trends have been found, which suggests that climate change is likely to further increase evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources.

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.

PubMed

Foufopoulos, Johannes; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Ives, Anthony R

2011-01-01

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty has been a major theme in research regarding climate change from virtually the very beginning. And appropriately characterizing and quantifying uncertainty has been an important aspect of this work. Initially, uncertainties were explored regarding the climate system and how it would react to future forcing. A concomitant area of concern was viewed in the future emissions and concentrations of important forcing agents such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. But, of course we know there are important uncertainties in all aspects of climate change research, not just that of the climate system and emissions. And as climate change research has become more important and of pragmatic concern as possible solutions to the climate change problem are addressed, exploring all the relevant uncertainties has become more relevant and urgent. More recently, over the past five years or so, uncertainties in impacts models, such as agricultural and hydrological models, have received much more attention, through programs such as AgMIP, and some research in this arena has indicated that the uncertainty in the impacts models can be as great or greater than that in the climate system. Still there remains other areas of uncertainty that remain underexplored and/or undervalued. This includes uncertainty in vulnerability and governance. Without more thoroughly exploring these last uncertainties, we likely will underestimate important uncertainties particularly regarding how different systems can successfully adapt to climate change . In this talk I will discuss these different uncertainties and how to combine them to give a complete picture of the total uncertainty individual systems are facing. And as part of this, I will discuss how the uncertainty can be successfully managed even if it is fairly large and deep. Part of my argument will be that large uncertainty is not the enemy, but rather false certainty is the true danger.

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-01-01

Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years' stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65-2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00-32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16-11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35-8.46), respectively. The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-01-01

Background Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. Design A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. Results The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years’ stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65–2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00–32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16–11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35–8.46), respectively. Conclusions The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be

Mixed methods approach to understanding farmer and agricultural advisor perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Vermont, United States

Treesearch

Rachel E. Schattman; V. Ernesto Méndez; Scott C. Merrill; Asim Zia

2018-01-01

The relationships among farmers' belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climaterelated risks that differ from those faced in other...

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Bruno R; Sales, Lilian P; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Utzinger, Jürg; Lv, Shan; Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Wang, Qiang; Bergquist, Robert; Vounatsou, Penelope; Li, Wei; Yang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2010-01-01

Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs

PubMed Central

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-01-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change. PMID:27991978

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Cameron, Scott; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2016-07-01

Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression. In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs. Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and

Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

2017-12-01

Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this

The Changing Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Stephen H.

1989-01-01

Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem): Online resources for teaching and learning chemistry through the rich context of climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, L.; Versprille, A.; Towns, M.; Mahaffy, P.; Martin, B.; Kirchhoff, M.

2013-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing humanity. Many of the important underlying concepts require mental models that are built on a fundamental understanding of chemistry, yet connections to climate science and global climate change are largely missing from undergraduate chemistry courses for science majors. In Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem), we have developed and piloted a set of online modules that addresses this gap by teaching core chemistry concepts through the rich context of climate science. These interactive web-based digital learning experiences enable students to learn about isotopes and their relevance in determining historical temperature records, IR absorption by greenhouse gases, and acid/base chemistry and the impacts on changing ocean pH. The efficacy of these tools and this approach has been assessed through measuring changes in students' understanding about both climate change and core chemistry concepts.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework

Treesearch

Linda M. ​Nagel; Brian J. Palik; Michael A. Battaglia; Anthony W. D' Amato; James M. Guldin; Chris Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Matthew P. Powers; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; David L. Peterson; Lisa M. Ganio; Chad Kirschbaum; Molly R. Roske

2017-01-01

Forest managers in the United States must respond to the need for climate-adaptive strategies in the face of observed and projected climatic changes. However, there is a lack of on-the-ground forest adaptation research to indicate what adaptation measures or tactics might be effective in preparing forest ecosystems to deal with climate change. Natural resource managers...

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Adaptation: Forests as water infrastructure in a changing climate

Treesearch

Todd Gartner; Heather McGray; James Mulligan; Jonas Epstein; Ayesha Dinshaw

2014-01-01

Natural ecosystems like forests and wetlands provide a suite of water-related services that are increasingly critical for communities as the impacts of climate change intensify. Yet, these natural ecosystems are increasingly lost or degraded. In the face of growing water-related challenges in an age of fiscal austerity, investing in the conservation, restoration, and...

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Hu, Huijian; Jiang, Zhigang

2010-10-01

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

2012-12-01

vulnerability analysis. They also contribute to considerations of adaptation, focusing attention on adapting to increased variability in yield rather than just reductions in yield. For example, in the face of increased variability or reduced reliability, hedging and risk spreading strategies may be more important than technological innovations such as drought-resistant crops or other optimization strategies. Our findings also have implications for the choice and application of climate extreme indices, demands on models used to project climate change and the development of next generation integrated assessment models (IAM) that incorporate the agricultural sector, and especially adaption within that sector, in energy and broader more general markets.

The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

PubMed

Heffernan, Claire

2013-12-01

Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

Human behavioral contributions to climate change: psychological and contextual drivers.

PubMed

Swim, Janet K; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S

2011-01-01

We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact, primarily through patterns of reproduction and consumption. We identify and distinguish individual, societal, and behavioral predictors of environmental impact. Relevant research in these areas (as well as areas that would be aided by greater attention by psychologists) are reviewed. We conclude by highlighting ethical issues that emerge when considering how to address human behavioral contributions to climate change.

The Heat is On! Confronting Climate Change in the Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, R.; Atwood-Blaine, D.

2008-12-01

This paper discusses a professional development workshop for K-12 science teachers entitled "The Heat is On! Confronting Climate Change in the Classroom." This workshop was conducted by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS), which has the primary goal to understand and predict the role of polar ice sheets in sea level change. The specific objectives of this summer workshop were two-fold; first, to address the need for advancement in science technology engineering and mathematics (STEM) education and second, to address the need for science teacher training in climate change science. Twenty-eight Kansas teachers completed four pre-workshop assignments online in Moodle and attended a one-week workshop. The workshop included lecture presentations by scientists (both face-to-face and via video-conference) and collaboration between teachers and scientists to create online inquiry-based lessons on the water budget, remote sensing, climate data, and glacial modeling. Follow-up opportunities are communicated via the CReSIS Teachers listserv to maintain and further develop the collegial connections and collaborations established during the workshop. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluation results indicate that this workshop was particularly effective in the following four areas: 1) creating meaningful connections between K-12 teachers and CReSIS scientists; 2) integrating distance-learning technologies to facilitate the social construction of knowledge; 3) increasing teachers' content understanding of climate change and its impacts on the cryosphere and global sea level; and 4) increasing teachers' self-efficacy beliefs about teaching climate science. Evaluation methods included formative content understanding assessments (via "clickers") during each scientist's presentation, a qualitative evaluation survey administered at the end of the workshop, and two quantitative evaluation instruments administered pre- and post- workshop. The first of these

Examining the effects of transportation governance on infrastructure adaptation to climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

Transportation agencies across the United States are faced with the challenge of effectively : adapting infrastructure to withstand the predicted effects of climate change. This challenge is : magnified by a nationwide funding shortage, uncertainty a...

Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

Climate Change Schools Project...

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinzey, Krista

2010-01-01

This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Larson, Eric R.; Papendick, Hilary L.; Case, Michael J.; Evans, Daniel M.; DeLap, Jack H.; Langdon, Jesse G. R.; Hall, Sonia A.; McRae, Brad H.

2011-01-01

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts. PMID:22174897

Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

PubMed

De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

2013-09-01

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

Modeling the Evolution of Riparian Woodlands Facing Climate Change in Three European Rivers with Contrasting Flow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rivaes, Rui P.; Rodríguez-González, Patricia M.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pinheiro, António N.; Politti, Emilio; Egger, Gregory; García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Felix

2014-01-01

Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change. PMID:25330151

Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen D. Handler; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Todd A. Ontl; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer...

Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigras, S. C.

2009-12-01

It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

Comparative phylogeography highlights the double-edged sword of climate change faced by arctic- and alpine-adapted mammals.

PubMed

Lanier, Hayley C; Gunderson, Aren M; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B; Olson, Link E

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of

Comparative Phylogeography Highlights the Double-Edged Sword of Climate Change Faced by Arctic- and Alpine-Adapted Mammals

PubMed Central

Lanier, Hayley C.; Gunderson, Aren M.; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Olson, Link E.

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of

Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

PubMed

Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

2010-01-01

Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

PubMed Central

Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

Strengthening insurance partnerships in the face of climate change - Insights from an agent-based model of flood insurance in the UK.

PubMed

Crick, Florence; Jenkins, Katie; Surminski, Swenja

2018-04-25

Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Vaille

2015-05-01

Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to participate in this discourse. The purpose of this study was to examine Western Australian high school students' understanding of climate change and the greenhouse effect, in order to identify their alternative conceptions about climate change science and provide a baseline for more effective teaching. A questionnaire designed to elicit students' understanding and alternative conceptions was completed by 438 Year 10 students (14-15 years old). A further 20 students were interviewed. Results showed that students know different features of both climate change and the greenhouse effect, however not necessarily all of them and the relationships between. Five categories of alternative conceptions were identified. The categories were (1) the greenhouse effect and the ozone layer; (2) types of greenhouse gases; (3) types of radiation; (4) weather and climate and (5) air pollution. These findings provide science educators a basis upon which to develop strategies and curriculum resources to improve their students' understanding and decision-making skills about the socioscientific issue, climate change.

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

PubMed Central

Ackerly, David D.; Cornwell, William K.; Weiss, Stuart B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions. PMID:26115485

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

PubMed Central

Carey, Cynthia

2009-01-01

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past. PMID:19833644

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2013-12-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List

Environmental gradients and grassland trait variation: Insight into the effects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardella, Federico M.; Piermarteri, Karina; Malatesta, Luca; Catorci, Andrea

2016-10-01

The research aim was to understand how variation of temperature and water availability drives trait assemblage of seminatural grasslands in sub-Mediterranean climate, where climate change is expected to intensify summer aridity. In the central Italy, we recorded species abundance and elevation, slope aspect and angle in 129 plots. The traits we analysed were life span, growth form, clonality, belowground organs, leaf traits, plant height, seed mass, and palatability. We used Ellenberg's indicators as a proxy to assess air temperature and soil moisture gradients. From productive to harsh conditions, we observed a shift from tolerance to avoidance strategies, and a change in resource allocation strategies to face competition and stress or that maximize exploitation of patchily distributed soil resource niches. In addition, we found that the increase of temperature and water scarcity leads to the establishment of regeneration strategies that enable plants to cope with the unpredictability of changes in stress intensity and duration. Since the dry habitats of higher elevations are also constrained by winter cold stress, we argue that, within the sub-Mediterranean bioclimate, climate change will likely lead to a variation in dominance inside plant communities rather than a shift upwards of species ranges. At higher elevations, drought-adaptive traits might become more abundant on south-facing slopes that are less stressed by winter low temperatures; traits related to productive conditions and cold stress would be replaced on north-facing slopes by those adapted to overcome both the drought and the cold stresses.

Facing Anxiety in Climate Change Education: from Therapeutic Practice to Hopeful Transgressive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojala, Maria

2016-01-01

This article discusses the need for critical emotional awareness in environmental and sustainability education that aspires to result in transgressive learning and transformation. The focus is on the emotions of anxiety/worry and hope, and their role in climate change education. By disrupting unsustainable norms and habits, hope for another way of…

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

[Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change].

PubMed

Han, Ying; Hou, Xiang-yang

2011-04-01

Desert steppe is very vulnerable to climate change. The herders caring for their livestock in such a natural environment have to face the challenges of rapid climate change. In this paper, a household-level questionnaire was conducted in the Suniteyou District of Inner Mongolia, China, aimed to analyze the herders' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change, extreme climate events in particular. In this Steppe where precipitation is rare and meteorological disasters are frequent, drought is the main extreme climate event with the broadest affecting area, the highest affecting degree, and the greatest frequency. The sensitivity of the herders to drought is far higher than that to other extreme climate events, and also, the perceptions to drought induce the herders having deep perceptions to the extreme climate events such as strong wing, dust storm, and heavy snow. Relative to the perceptions to long-term climate change, the perceptions to short-term climate change are more deep and precise. The herders can estimate the long-term climate change trend according to their perceptions to the latest 10 years climate change. They attribute the poor livestock health and the reduced forage yield greatly to climate change. Yet, the herders are inexperienced in implementing efficient adaptation strategies. Generally, their adaptation measures are quite simplex and rather passive.

Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2015-05-01

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevermer, A. J.

2002-12-01

Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-03-01

Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

2014-01-01

While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

Stakeholders’ perspectives towards effective climate change adaptation on the Mongolian livestock sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batbaatar, A.; Apichayakul, P.; Tantanee, S.

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the greatest threats that world is facing today, and having significant deleterious effects on natural and human systems. Recent climate-induced extreme events and their impacts demand timely adaptation actions to the changing odds of their occurrence. The great phenomenon is already being felt in the Mongolian plateau, especially on the livestock sector. The sector provides the main income and livelihood for one-third of the population of about three million people. A high number of livestock is lost due to a unique phenomenon is known as a “dzud”. This paper examines the key stakeholders’ perspectives in the implementation of climate change adaptation and identifies its barriers, with a focus on the livestock sector. In order to meet the objectives, this research used a semi-structured interview with organizations related to the livestock sector and climate change. The extent of stakeholders’ perspectives might be depending on the way they share information, stakeholder engagement, and their experiences with extreme events, as well as their location and level in government. The research findings will indicate an understanding of climate change perspectives, adaptation, and level of capacity of organizations, which can be used as a guideline for organizations to develop climate change adaptation policies related to the livestock sector in Mongolia.

Climate change assessments

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2008-01-01

The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2009-01-01

The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

Climate Change and Health as Massive Open Online Courses.

PubMed

Barteit, Sandra; Sié, Ali; Yé, Maurice; Depoux, Anneliese; Sauerborn, Reiner

2018-01-01

To teach the basics of climate change and health - such as the nature of health impacts, best practices in adoption strategies and promotion in health co-benefits, mitigation and adaptation strategies - we have developed three massive open online courses (MOOCs). We analysed the three MOOCs with regards to different factors such as course content, student motivation, instructor behaviour, co-learner effects, design and implementation effects. We conducted online surveys for all three MOOCs based on the research model of Hone et al., extended with regards to student's motivation and course outcomes. In total, we evaluated 6898 students, of which 101 students took part in the online survey. We found differences in completion rates and country of origin for the three MOOCs. The francophone MOOC was found to have a high number of participants from lower-income- and low-and-middle-income countries. The majority of participants were aged between 22 and 40 years of age and had mainly a graduate educational background. The primary motivation to join the MOOC was the knowledge and skills gained as a result of taking the course. The three MOOCs on climate change and health had a reach of almost 7000 students worldwide, as compared to the scope of a face-to-face course on the same topic of 30 students, including students from resource-low environments that are already vulnerable to current changes in climate. The evaluation of the MOOCs outlined the current impact. However, further research has to be conducted to be able to get insights into the impact over time.

Aging changes in the face

MedlinePlus

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/004004.htm Aging changes in the face To use the sharing ... face with age References Brodie SE, Francis JH. Aging and disorders of the eye. In: Fillit HM, ...

Climate Change and Health in the Urban Context: The Experience of Barcelona.

PubMed

Villalbí, Joan R; Ventayol, Irma

2016-07-01

Climate change poses huge challenges for public health, and cities are at the forefront of this process. The purpose of this paper is to present the issues climate change poses for public health in the city of Barcelona, how they are being addressed, and what are the current major challenges, trying to contribute to the development of a baseline understanding of the status of adaptation in cities from a public health perspective. The major issues related to climate change faced by the city are common to other urban centers in a Mediterranean climate: heat waves, water availability and quality, air quality, and diseases transmitted by vectors, and all are reviewed in detail with empirical data. They are not a potential threat for the future, but have actually challenged the city services and infrastructure over the last years, requiring sustainable responses and rigorous planning. © The Author(s) 2016.

Local oceanographic variability influences the performance of juvenile abalone under climate change.

PubMed

Boch, C A; Micheli, F; AlNajjar, M; Monismith, S G; Beers, J M; Bonilla, J C; Espinoza, A M; Vazquez-Vera, L; Woodson, C B

2018-04-03

Climate change is causing warming, deoxygenation, and acidification of the global ocean. However, manifestation of climate change may vary at local scales due to oceanographic conditions. Variation in stressors, such as high temperature and low oxygen, at local scales may lead to variable biological responses and spatial refuges from climate impacts. We conducted outplant experiments at two locations separated by ~2.5 km and two sites at each location separated by ~200 m in the nearshore of Isla Natividad, Mexico to assess how local ocean conditions (warming and hypoxia) may affect juvenile abalone performance. Here, we show that abalone growth and mortality mapped to variability in stress exposure across sites and locations. These insights indicate that management decisions aimed at maintaining and recovering valuable marine species in the face of climate change need to be informed by local variability in environmental conditions.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

PubMed

Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

2009-12-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

Communicating Urban Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

2011-12-01

While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of

Acknowledging Global Climate Change in Humanities Courses Not Focused on Climate: The Value of Indirectness in Teaching.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slovic, S.

2015-12-01

I will highlight the following teaching strategies in my presentation: 1) the decision of include climate-related works at the end of syllabi for courses in subjects like "The Literature of Energy" in order to complicate and contextualize readings from earlier in the courses and to delay the climate topic until I feel students are ready to face it; 2) breaking down climate into an array of specific, graspable sub-issues (food, water, transportation, architecture) in courses on sustainability literature; and 3) appreciating the psychology of "numbers and nerves" in course design for topics such as genocide and climate change that seem to require quantitative description (for instance, psychic numbing, pseudoinefficacy, the prominence effect, the asymmetry of trust, and the trans-scalar imaginary). This presentation will briefly describe my own experiences teaching climate change literature at the University of Nevada, Reno, and the University of Idaho and will also draw from my forthcoming book, with psychologist Paul Slovic, titled Numbers and Nerves: Information, Emotion, and Meaning in a World of Data (Oregon State University Press, October 2015).

Climate change and skin disease.

PubMed

Lundgren, Ashley D

2018-04-01

Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

PubMed

Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, J. S.; Perry-Hill, Rebecca; Huber, Matthew; Prokopy, Linda S.

2015-09-01

The existence of anthropogenic climate change remains a public controversy despite the consensus among climate scientists. The controversy may be fed by the existence of scientists from other disciplines publicly casting doubt on the validity of climate science. The extent to which non-climate scientists are skeptical of climate science has not been studied via direct survey. Here we report on a survey of biophysical scientists across disciplines at universities in the Big 10 Conference. Most respondents (93.6%) believe that mean temperatures have risen and most (91.9%) believe in an anthropogenic contribution to rising temperatures. Respondents strongly believe that climate science is credible (mean credibility score 6.67/7). Those who disagree about climate change disagree over basic facts (e.g., the effects of CO2 on climate) and have different cultural and political values. These results suggest that scientists who are climate change skeptics are outliers and that the majority of scientists surveyed believe in anthropogenic climate change and that climate science is credible and mature.

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Professional development design considerations in climate change education: teacher enactment and student learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla

2018-01-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology, we focused analytic attention on how one teacher made particular pedagogical and content decisions, and the implications for student's conceptual learning. Using anthropological theories of conceptual travel, we traced salient ideas through instructional delivery and into student reasoning. Analysis showed that students gained an increased understanding of the enhanced greenhouse effect and the implications of human activity on this enhanced effect at statistically significant levels and with moderate effect sizes. However, students demonstrated a limited, though non-significant gain on the likely effects of climate change. Student reasoning on the tangible actions to deal with these problems also remained underdeveloped, reflecting omissions in both PD and teacher enactment. We discuss implications for the emerging field of climate change education.

Measurements and models to identify agroecosystem practices that enhance soil organic carbon under changing climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adapting to the anticipated impacts of climate change is a pressing issue facing agriculture, as precipitation and temperature changes are expected to have major effects on agricultural production in many regions of the world. These changes will also affect soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition an...

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Climate Change Professional Development Approaches: Design Considerations, Teacher Enactment, and Student Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, A.; Henderson, J.; Mouza, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology, we focused analytic attention on how one teacher made specific curricular, pedagogical, and content decisions, and the implications of those decisions for student's conceptual learning.The research presented here reports on the instructional design, pedagogical enactment, and subsequent effects on student learning of a climate change professional development (PD) model in the United States. Using anthropological theories of conceptual travel, we traced salient ideas from the PD through instructional delivery and into the evidence of student reasoning. We sought to address the following research questions: 1) How did a middle school teacher integrate climate change concepts into her science curriculum following PD participation? and 2) How did climate change instruction influence student understanding of key climate change constructs?From observation of the classroom instruction, we determined that the teacher effectively integrated new climate change information into her pre-existing schema. Additionally, through retrospective analysis of the PD, we found the design of the PD foregrounded the causes, mechanisms and likely effects of anthropogenic climate change at the expense of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and this differentially shaped how climate change was taught in the teacher's classroom. Analysis of student reasoning evidence showed that students gained an increased understanding of the enhanced greenhouse effect and the implications of human activity on this enhanced effect at statistically significant levels and with moderate effect sizes. However, students demonstrated a limited, though non-significant gain on

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

Climate change and forest diseases

Treesearch

R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

2011-01-01

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Treesearch

Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North–South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

Treesearch

Nan Lu; Ge Sun; Xiaoming Feng; Bojie Fu

2013-01-01

China is facing a growing water crisis due to climate and land use change, and rise in human water demand across this rapidly developing country. Understanding the spatial and temporal ecohydrologic responses to climate change is critical to sustainable water resource management. We investigated water yield (WY) responses to historical (1981–2000) and projected...

Confronting Misinformation in Climate Change Higher Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2012-12-01

Among the many challenges faced by climate change educators is the highly politicized nature of the subject matter (e.g. McCright and Dunlap, 2011) and the associated misinformation from key media outlets and websites (e.g. see Oreskes and Conway, 2010). Students typically do not enter the classroom as 'blank slates', but often have already formed some opinion about climate change which may or may not be based on reputable sources. Further, many students have lives outside the classroom and/or off campus, and even those who do live in an isolated bubble of campus life will eventually graduate. Thus, providing students with a level of climate change knowledge and understanding robust enough to cope with misinformation may be an important goal for educators. This paper presents a case study of the direct use of climate change misinformation as a college-level classroom activity. Some research from other fields (notably psychology) has found that directly addressing misconceptions in the classroom can be the most effective means of dispelling them (Kowalski and Taylor, 2009). However, directly confronting misinformation in the classroom carries inherent risks, such as reinforcing misconceptions (e.g. Cook and Lewandowsky, 2011). This paper therefore considers approaches to minimizing those risks while attempting to maximize the possible benefits. This paper argues that use of misinformation as a teaching tool can provide useful exercises in critical thinking, testing of content knowledge, and consideration of the nature of science. Cook, J. and S. Lewandowsky. 2011. The Debunking Handbook. Online publication available www.skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_Handbook.pdf. Accessed 7 July 2012. Kowalski, P. and A.K. Taylor. 2009. DOI: 10.1080/00986280902959986. McCright, A., and R.T. Dunlap. 2011. The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public's views of global warming, 2001-2010. The Sociological Quarterly 52:2, 155-194. Oreskes, N. and E

3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and 3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Face-to-Face Meeting Report December 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The climate and weather data science community gathered December 3–5, 2013, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in Livermore, California, for the third annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Meeting, which was hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UV-CDAT are global collaborations designed to develop a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to observed andmore » simulated data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure developed under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change, while the F2F meetings help to build a stronger climate and weather data science community and stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2013 F2F meeting determined requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects; enhancements needed for data distribution, analysis, and visualization infrastructure; and standards and resources needed for better collaborations.« less

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

2014-05-01

the following results. Climate change at the horizon of 2050 is likely to induce severe changes on the magnitude, frequency and extremes of the flow in the Chiba catchment. Monthly flow discharge is likely to be reduced by a median relative change (in respect to the reference period) ranging between -15% in summer to -40% in winter months. The maximum and minimum flow magnitude of different time duration (1-day, 3-days, 7-days, 30-days and 90-days) are likely to experience a significant decrease at the horizon of 2050. However, no significant change is projected in the timing of the flow. Changes in the flow duration curve suggest that the Chiba catchment is likely to face drier and more intermittent condition in the future. However, the predictions remain uncertain especially for high flows with flow percentiles equaled or exceeded less than 10% of the time. This study highlights the alarming situation that the Chiba catchment is likely to face in the future due to change in climate. More water threats and shortage are expected to occur which may threat the livelihood, the ecosystem and the local socio-economic development of the region. Therefore, the need for practical management plans that cope with those changes in climate and hydrology of the catchment is apparent. * Climate models were produced in the framework of the CLIMB project (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; http://www.climb-fp7.eu/home/home.php). References Giorgi, F., and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global and Planetary Change, 63, 90-104, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996, 2007

Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions and over time is necessary to determine if feedstock production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Panicum virgatum L., a perennial herbaceous grass, is a prom...

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2009-11-01

The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 °C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has

Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.

PubMed

Desmond, Sharon

2016-10-01

Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

Climate change and children.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A

2007-04-01

Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.

The application of genomics and bioinformatics to accelerate crop improvement in a changing climate.

PubMed

Batley, Jacqueline; Edwards, David

2016-04-01

The changing climate and growing global population will increase pressure on our ability to produce sufficient food. The breeding of novel crops and the adaptation of current crops to the new environment are required to ensure continued food production. Advances in genomics offer the potential to accelerate the genomics based breeding of crop plants. However, relating genomic data to climate related agronomic traits for use in breeding remains a huge challenge, and one which will require coordination of diverse skills and expertise. Bioinformatics, when combined with genomics has the potential to help maintain food security in the face of climate change through the accelerated production of climate ready crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information and communication technology and climate change adaptation: Evidence from selected mining companies in South Africa

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The mining sector is a significant contributor to the gross domestic product of many global economies. Given the increasing trends in climate-induced disasters and the growing desire to find lasting solutions, information and communication technology (ICT) has been introduced into the climate change adaptation mix. Climate change-induced extreme weather events such as flooding, drought, excessive fog, and cyclones have compounded the environmental challenges faced by the mining sector. This article presents the adoption of ICT innovation as part of the adaptation strategies towards reducing the mining sector’s vulnerability and exposure to climate change disaster risks. Document analysis and systematic literature review were adopted as the methodology. Findings from the study reflect how ICT intervention orchestrated changes in communication patterns which are tailored towards the reduction in climate change vulnerability and exposure. The research concludes with a proposition that ICT intervention must be part of the bigger and ongoing climate change adaptation agenda in the mining sector.

Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are

Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change.

PubMed

Struebig, Matthew J; Wilting, Andreas; Gaveau, David L A; Meijaard, Erik; Smith, Robert J; Fischer, Manuela; Metcalfe, Kristian; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie

2015-02-02

Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

could experience what are now considered 100-year floods every three to four years by the end of the 21st century.75 Ocean Acidification . The world’s...could be particularly harmful.81 In addition, shellfish, plankton, and corals face a highly uncertain threat from acidification of the world’s...eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, p. 213; Raven and others, Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, Insa; Aßheuer, Tibor; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Due to its location in the extensive Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river delta, Bangladesh faces multiple natural hazards, in particular flooding, droughts and sea-level rise. In addition to climate change, transboundary water sharing issues resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important as our previous research suggests that the Greater Dhaka population already experiences a significant increase in mortality during droughts (Thiele-Eich et al., 2015). We attempt to explore the complex interactions between the hydrological system under climate change and anthropogenic impacts due to dams as well as a growing population. Our approach consists of a quantitative assessment of climate change using over fourty years of meteorological data (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and hydrological data (Bangladesh Water Development Board), and CCSM4 climate model output (NCAR, 1950-2100). In addition to an extensive literature review, we also conducted qualitative interviews with slum dwellers in the megacity Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Results show that significant changes in flood characteristics are expected for the later part of the 21st century, although they are difficult to quantify down to exact numbers due to large uncertainties. These changes take place over longer stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. The presented results will also focus on how the riparian and coastal population is impacted by the interplay of natural changes such as sea-level rise and anthropogenic changes such as Farakka Barrage and the associated reduction in dry season flow. Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Pacific Islands

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2011-01-01

The Pacific islands face a variety of impacts as a result of climate change. Already-observed changes include increased average temperatures, coral bleaching, sea level rise and associated coastal erosion, increased intensity of cyclones, and a trend toward drier conditions. In the next century, sea level rise and associated erosion are expected to shrink shorelines...

Climate change and skin.

PubMed

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

Climate-change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.

2003-01-01

Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.

NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

2008-12-01

Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

USING DIVERSE EXPERTISE TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE FISHERIES SCIENCE.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Kate K; Druschke, Caroline Gottschalk

2017-11-15

As climate change continues to impact New England's coastal ecosystems and their related fisheries, the need for measuring, projecting, interpreting, and applying those impacts for adaptive management is expanding. In New England, different types of formal and informal research efforts that involve collaboration between the fishing community and traditional university and government researchers continue to develop to address some of this need. To better understand the opportunities and challenges that these collaborative research efforts face, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 members of the fishing and research communities who are engaged in advancing New England climate change and fisheries science. Participants showed clear concern for the impacts of climate change on New England fisheries and about the insufficient availability of the necessary science to manage for those impacts. They also noted a number of challenges in collaborative research, including poor communication and a lack of trust among fishers, researchers, and decision makers, as well as a lack of perceived credibility for research coming out of the fishing community. We identify a number of opportunities for improving collaboration and communication among these groups, which could build upon the identified value of existing collaborations.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

PubMed Central

Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

2016-01-01

Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

PubMed

Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

2016-09-07

Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.

Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2006-01-01

In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.

2015-12-01

The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.

Water, climate change and society in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Simmer, C.

2017-12-01

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh with a population of over 17 million people, is among the top five coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change, with over 30 % of the population living in slums. Effective disaster mitigation and adaptation requires an understanding how hazards such as flooding impact the population. The impacts of climate change on flooding and thus livelihoods in the complex delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers can not be treated isolated from other anthropogenic impacts due to e.g. the construction of dams as well as a growing population. We illustrate this by setting up a conceptual socio-hydrological causal network using the enhanced Driving force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response framework. The constructed socio-hydrological framework includes both natural and anthropogenic processes and their two-way feedbacks, allowing policy makers to know where available resources can be used effectively to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. We conclude that climate change takes place over long stretches of time and thus enable the population of Bangladesh to adapt slowly. Resources such as social capital, which is one of the main tools for slum dwellers to be able to cope with flooding can be altered over time, and as such the system can be considered overall stable and resilient. However, transboundary water sharing issues during the dry season and other implications resulting from dam structures such as Farakka Barrage complicate a prognosis on how the rapidly growing population will be affected in the 21st century. This is particularly important in connection with previous findings, which suggest that the Greater Dhaka population already experience a significant increase in mortality during droughts. Climate change can thus be seen as an anthropogenic amplification of the socio-hydrological challenges already faced by Bangladesh today.

The neurobiology of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-02-01

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

The neurobiology of climate change.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-01-06

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying

Climate Change and Children: Health Risks of Abatement Inaction, Health Gains from Action.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-08-14

As human-driven climate change advances, many adults fret about the losses of livelihoods, houses and farms that may result. Children fret about their parents' worries and about information they hear, but do not really understand about the world's climate and perhaps about their own futures. In chronically worried or anxious children, blood cortisol levels rise and adverse changes accrue in various organ systems that prefigure adult-life diseases. Meanwhile, for many millions of children in poor countries who hear little news and live with day-to-day fatalism, climate change threatens the fundamentals of life-food sufficiency, safe drinking water and physical security-and heightens the risks of diarrhoeal disease, malaria and other climate-sensitive infections. Poor and disadvantaged populations, and especially their children, will bear the brunt of climate-related trauma, disease and premature death over the next few decades and, less directly, from social disruption, impoverishment and displacement. The recent droughts in Somalia as the Indian Ocean warmed and monsoonal rains failed, on top of chronic civil war, forced hundreds of thousands of Somali families into north-eastern Kenya's vast Dadaab refugee camps, where, for children, shortages of food, water, hygiene and schooling has endangered physical, emotional and mental health. Children warrant special concern, both as children per se and as the coming generation likely to face ever more extreme climate conditions later this century. As children, they face diverse risks, from violent weather, proliferating aeroallergens, heat extremes and mobilised microbes, through to reduced recreational facilities, chronic anxieties about the future and health hazards of displacement and local resource conflict. Many will come to regard their parents' generation and complacency as culpable.

Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

2011-12-01

We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.