Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

PubMed

Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

2014-11-01

Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors of treatment failure and 30-day mortality in patients with bacteremia due to MRSA with reduced vancomycin susceptibility.

PubMed

Yang, Chien-Chang; Sy, Cheng-Len; Huang, Yhu-Chering; Shie, Shian-Sen; Shu, Jwu-Ching; Hsieh, Pang-Hsin; Hsiao, Ching-Hsi; Chen, Chih-Jung

2018-05-18

Bacteremia caused by MRSA with reduced vancomycin susceptibility (MRSA-RVS) frequently resulted in treatment failure and mortality. The relation of bacterial factors and unfavorable outcomes remains controversial. We retrospectively reviewed clinical data of patients with bacteremia caused by MRSA with vancomycin MIC = 2 mg/L from 2009 to 2012. The significance of bacterial genotypes, agr function and heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate S. aureus (hIVSA) phenotype in predicting outcomes were determined after clinical covariates adjustment with multivariate analysis. A total of 147 patients with mean age of 63.5 (±18.1) years were included. Seventy-nine (53.7%) patients failed treatment. Forty-seven (31.9%) patients died within 30 days of onset of MRSA bacteremia. The Charlson index, Pitt bacteremia score and definitive antibiotic regimen were independent factors significantly associated with either treatment failure or mortality. The hVISA phenotype was a potential risk factor predicting treatment failure (adjusted odds ratio 2.420, 95% confidence interval 0.946-6.191, P = 0.0652). No bacterial factors were significantly associated with 30-day mortality. In conclusion, the comorbidities, disease severity and antibiotic regimen remained the most relevant factors predicting treatment failure and 30-day mortality in patients with MRSA-RVS bacteremia. hIVSA phenotype was the only bacterial factor potentially associated with unfavorable outcome in this cohort.

Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

PubMed Central

Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

2015-01-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

2015-02-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. © The Author(s) 2014.

POSSUM and P-POSSUM for risk assessment in general surgery in the elderly.

PubMed

Igari, Kimihiro; Ochiai, Takanori; Yamazaki, Shigeru

2013-09-01

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) use preoperative and intraoperative factors to evaluate risk. We examined our surgical results to investigate predictive factors for morbidity and mortality, and evaluate the accuracy of the POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Patients (n = 593) aged ≥80 years, undergoing general surgical procedures were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors. The predicted outcomes using POSSUM and P-POSSUM were also compared with actual outcomes. Physiological score (PS) and operative severity score (OS) were independent predictors of morbidity and mortality. Using POSSUM, the observed/expected (O/E) morbidity ratio was 1.44 and O/E mortality ratio was 0.98. Using P-POSSUM, the O/E mortality ratio was 1.0. Even though POSSUM tended to underestimate the morbidity rate, POSSUM and P-POSSUM accurately predicted the mortality rate after general surgical procedures.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Has patient survival following renal transplantation improved in the era of modern immunosuppression?

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Moreso, Francesc

2013-01-01

Renal transplantation (TX) is the treatment of choice in the majority of patients with chronic kidney disease. But, these patients have a high mortality rate with respect to the general population despite new immunosuppression treatments and improved clinical management. This justifies that the excellent results obtained in the short terms do not have a parallel clinical benefit in the long term. This worrying situation is probably due to a high prevalence of cardiovascular conditions and infectious and neoplastic entities amongst this population against a backdrop of immunosuppression treatment. Furthermore, there is interaction between these processes, which share causal factors and common pathogenic mechanisms. Mortality thus increases. Therefore, identifying the causes of death and the risk factors, applying morbidity and mortality predictive models and intervening in causal factors could constitute some of the strategies for improving renal transplantation results in terms of survival. This review analyses some of the evidence conditioning this high mortality rate following TX, as well and the therapeutic and prognostic aspects associated with co-morbidity: 1) Magnitude of the problem and causes of death among sufferers; 2) Identification of mortality risk factors; 3) Therapeutic strategies for decrease post-TX mortality and; 4) Prediction of mortality and ischaemic heart disease.

Features and prognostic factors for elderly with acute poisoning in the emergency department.

PubMed

Hu, Yu-Hui; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Lu, Wen-Hua; Huang, Hsien-Hao; Yang, Cheng-Chang; Yen, David H T; Kao, Wei-Fong; Deng, Jou-Fan; Huang, Chun-I

2010-02-01

Elderly persons with acute poisoning in the emergency department (ED) and prognostic factors of outcomes have not been well addressed in previous research. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of elderly patients with acute poisoning visiting the ED, and to identify the possible predictive factors of mortality. Patients aged > or = 65 years with acute poisoning who visited the ED in Taipei Veterans General Hospital from January 1, 2006 through to September 30, 2008 were enrolled in the study. We collected demographic information on underlying diseases, initial presentations, causes and toxic substances, complications, dispositions, and outcomes. Analyses were conducted among different groups categorized according to age, suicide attempt, and outcome. Multiple logistic regression was applied to identify possible predictive clinical factors influencing mortality in the elderly with acute poisoning. A total of 250 patients were enrolled in the study, with a mean age of 77 years and male predominance. The most common cause of intoxication was unintentional poisoning. Medication accounted for 57.6% of poisonous substances, of which benzodiazepine was the most common drug, followed by warfarin. The overall mortality rate was 9.6%. The average length of stay in the ED increased significantly in the old (65-74 years), very old (75-84 years) and extremely old (> or = 85 years) groups. Suicide attempt patients experienced more complications including respiratory failure, aspiration pneumonia, hypotension and mortality. Three clinical predictive factors of mortality were identified: herbicide poisoning, hypotension and respiratory failure upon presentation. Our results demonstrated that elderly patients with acute poisoning had a mortality rate of 9.6%. Suicide attempts resulted in more serious complications. The risk factors for mortality were herbicide intoxication, hypotension and respiratory failure. Copyright 2010 Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Cerebrospinal Fluid Cortisol Mediates Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Relationships to Mortality after Severe TBI: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Munoz, Miranda J.; Kumar, Raj G.; Oh, Byung-Mo; Conley, Yvette P.; Wang, Zhensheng; Failla, Michelle D.; Wagner, Amy K.

2017-01-01

Distinct regulatory signaling mechanisms exist between cortisol and brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) that may influence secondary injury cascades associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and predict outcome. We investigated concurrent CSF BDNF and cortisol relationships in 117 patients sampled days 0–6 after severe TBI while accounting for BDNF genetics and age. We also determined associations between CSF BDNF and cortisol with 6-month mortality. BDNF variants, rs6265 and rs7124442, were used to create a gene risk score (GRS) in reference to previously published hypothesized risk for mortality in “younger patients” (<48 years) and hypothesized BDNF production/secretion capacity with these variants. Group based trajectory analysis (TRAJ) was used to create two cortisol groups (high and low trajectories). A Bayesian estimation approach informed the mediation models. Results show CSF BDNF predicted patient cortisol TRAJ group (P = 0.001). Also, GRS moderated BDNF associations with cortisol TRAJ group. Additionally, cortisol TRAJ predicted 6-month mortality (P = 0.001). In a mediation analysis, BDNF predicted mortality, with cortisol acting as the mediator (P = 0.011), yielding a mediation percentage of 29.92%. Mediation effects increased to 45.45% among younger patients. A BDNF*GRS interaction predicted mortality in younger patients (P = 0.004). Thus, we conclude 6-month mortality after severe TBI can be predicted through a mediation model with CSF cortisol and BDNF, suggesting a regulatory role for cortisol with BDNF's contribution to TBI pathophysiology and mortality, particularly among younger individuals with severe TBI. Based on the literature, cortisol modulated BDNF effects on mortality after TBI may be related to known hormone and neurotrophin relationships to neurological injury severity and autonomic nervous system imbalance. PMID:28337122

A Multifactorial Approach to Predicting Death Anxiety: Assessing the Role of Religiosity, Susceptibility to Mortality Cues, and Individual Differences.

PubMed

French, Carrie; Greenauer, Nathan; Mello, Catherine

2017-01-01

Death anxiety is not only experienced by individuals receiving end-of-life care, but also by family members, social workers, and other service providers who support these individuals. Thus, identifying predictors of individual differences in experienced death anxiety levels may have both theoretical and clinical ramifications. The present study assessed the relative influence of religiosity, susceptibility to mortality cues, state and trait anxiety, and demographic factors in the experience of death anxiety through an online survey distributed to members of two online communities related to end-of-life care. Results indicated that cognitive and emotional susceptibility to mortality cues, as well as gender, predicted differences in death anxiety. Conversely, religiosity and age did not increase the predictive power of the model. Thus, death anxiety may be a function of emotional, cognitive, and sociocultural factors that interact in complex, but predictable, ways to modulate the response to mortality cues that occur in one's life.

Cognition and mortality in older people: the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

PubMed

Connors, Michael H; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Xu, Jing; Draper, Brian; Brodaty, Henry

2015-11-01

Both cognitive ability and cognitive decline have been shown to predict mortality in older people. As dementia, a major form of cognitive decline, has an established association with shorter survival, it is unclear the extent to which cognitive ability and cognitive decline predict mortality in the absence of dementia. To determine whether cognitive ability and decline in cognitive ability predict mortality in older individuals without dementia. The Sydney Memory and Ageing Study is an observational population-based cohort study. Participants completed detailed neuropsychological assessments and medical examinations to assess for risk factors such as depression, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking and physical activity. Participants were regularly assessed at 2-year intervals over 8 years. A community sample in Sydney, Australia. One thousand and thirty-seven elderly people without dementia. Overall, 236 (22.8%) participants died within 8 years. Both cognitive ability at baseline and decline in cognitive ability over 2 years predicted mortality. Decline in cognitive ability, but not baseline cognitive ability, was a significant predictor of mortality when depression and other medical risk factors were controlled for. These relationships also held when excluding incident cases of dementia. The findings indicate that decline in cognition is a robust predictor of mortality in older people without dementia at a population level. This relationship is not accounted for by co-morbid depression or other established biomedical risk factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

2015-01-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

Cytokine activation is predictive of mortality in Zambian patients with AIDS-related diarrhoea.

PubMed

Zulu, Isaac; Hassan, Ghaniah; Njobvu R N, Lungowe; Dhaliwal, Winnie; Sianongo, Sandie; Kelly, Paul

2008-11-13

Mortality in Zambian AIDS patients is high, especially in patients with diarrhoea, and there is still unacceptably high mortality in Zambian patients just starting anti-retroviral therapy. We set out to determine if high concentrations of serum cytokines correlate with mortality. Serum samples from 30 healthy controls (HIV seropositive and seronegative) and 50 patients with diarrhoea (20 of whom died within 6 weeks) were analysed. Concentrations of tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (TNFR p55), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, interferon (IFN)-gamma and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured by ELISA, and correlated with mortality after 6 weeks follow-up. Apart from IL-12, concentrations of all cytokines, TNFR p55 and CRP increased with worsening severity of disease, showing highly statistically significant trends. In a multivariable analysis high TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count (CD4 count <100) were predictive of mortality. Although nutritional status (assessed by body mass index, BMI) was predictive in univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor in multivariate analysis. High serum concentrations of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count correlated with disease severity and short-term mortality in HIV-infected Zambian adults with diarrhoea. These factors were better predictors of survival than BMI. Understanding the cause of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma and CRP elevation may be useful in development of interventions to reduce mortality in AIDS patients with chronic diarrhoea in Africa.

What is the best predictor of mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease? A population-based, multivariable regression analysis including three clinical scoring systems.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2014-07-01

Mortality rates in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have remained unchanged. The aim of this study was to compare known clinical factors and three scoring systems (American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), Boey and peptic ulcer perforation (PULP)) in the ability to predict mortality in PPU. This is a consecutive, observational cohort study of patients surgically treated for perforated peptic ulcer over a decade (January 2001 through December 2010). Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. A total of 172 patients were included, of whom 28 (16 %) died within 30 days. Among the factors associated with mortality, the PULP score had an odds ratio (OR) of 18.6 and the ASA score had an OR of 11.6, both with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79. The Boey score had an OR of 5.0 and an AUC of 0.75. Hypoalbuminaemia alone (≤37 g/l) achieved an OR of 8.7 and an AUC of 0.78. In multivariable regression, mortality was best predicted by a combination of increasing age, presence of active cancer and delay from admission to surgery of >24 h, together with hypoalbuminaemia, hyperbilirubinaemia and increased creatinine values, for a model AUC of 0.89. Six clinical factors predicted 30-day mortality better than available risk scores. Hypoalbuminaemia was the strongest single predictor of mortality and may be included for improved risk estimation.

Reaction Time and Established Risk Factors for Total and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Comparison of Effect Estimates in the Follow-Up of a Large, UK-Wide, General-Population Based Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Beverly A.; Der, Geoff; Deary, Ian J.; Batty, G. David

2009-01-01

Higher cognitive function is associated with faster choice reaction time (CRT), and both are associated with a reduced risk of mortality from all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, comparison of the predictive capacity of CRT, an emerging risk factor, with that for established "classic" risk factors for mortality, such as…

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Modeling total cholesterol as predictor of mortality: the low-cholesterol paradox.

PubMed

Wesley, David; Cox, Hugh F

2011-01-01

Elevated total cholesterol is well-established as a risk factor for coronary artery disease and cardiovascular mortality. However, less attention is paid to the association between low cholesterol levels and mortality--the low cholesterol paradox. In this paper, restricted cubic splines (RCS) and complex survey methodology are used to show the low-cholesterol paradox is present in the laboratory, examination, and mortality follow-up data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). A series of Cox proportional hazard models, demonstrate that RCS are necessary to incorporate desired covariates while avoiding the use of categorical variables. Valid concerns regarding the accuracy of such predictive models are discussed. The one certain conclusion is that low cholesterol levels are markers for excess mortality, just as are high levels. Restricted cubic splines provide the necessary flexibility to demonstrate the U-shaped relationship between cholesterol and mortality without resorting to binning results. Cox PH models perform well at identifying associations between risk factors and outcomes of interest such as mortality. However, the predictions from such a model may not be as accurate as common statistics suggest and predictive models should be used with caution.

Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

2009-01-01

In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

Sociodemographic and psychosocial factors in childhood as predictors of adult mortality.

PubMed Central

Schwartz, J E; Friedman, H S; Tucker, J S; Tomlinson-Keasey, C; Wingard, D L; Criqui, M H

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Childhood sociodemographic, psychosocial, and environmental factors are often assumed to affect adult health and longevity. These relationships were prospectively tested by using the 7-decade Terman Life Cycle Study of Children With High Ability (n = 1285). METHODS: Parental socioeconomic status, childhood health, objective childhood stressors (e.g., death or divorce of parents), and childhood personality were considered as potential predictors in hazard regression analyses of longevity through 1991. RESULTS: Parental divorce during childhood predicted decreased longevity, with sex controlled. Other potential social predictors failed to show significant associations with longevity. Three dimensions of childhood personality--conscientiousness, lack of cheerfulness, and permanency of mood (males only)--predicted increased longevity. The effects of parental divorce and childhood personality were largely independent and did not account for any of the gender difference in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A small number of childhood factors significantly predicted mortality across the life span in this sample. Further research should focus on how these psychosocial factors influence longevity. PMID:7661231

Atrial fibrillation in cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator: a risk factor for mortality, appropriate and inappropriate shocks.

PubMed

van Boven, Nick; Theuns, Dominic; Bogaard, Kjell; Ruiter, Jaap; Kimman, Geert; Berman, Lily; VAN DER Ploeg, Tjeerd; Kardys, Isabella; Umans, Victor

2013-10-01

Knowledge about predictive factors for mortality and (in)appropriate shocks in cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator (CRT-D) should be available and updated to predict clinical outcome. We retrospectively analyzed 543 consecutive patients assigned to CRT-D in 2 tertiary medical centers. The aim of this study was to assess risk factors for all-cause mortality, appropriate and inappropriate shocks. Mean follow-up time was 3.2 (±1.8) years. A total of 110 (20%) patients died, 71 (13%) received ≥1 appropriate shocks, and 33 (6.1%) received ≥1 inappropriate shocks. No patients received a His bundle ablation and biventricular pacing percentage was not analyzed. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that a history of atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.74 CI 1.06-2.86), higher creatinine (HR 1.12; CI 1.08-1.16), and a poorer left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HR 0.97; CI 0.94-1.01) independently predict all-cause mortality. In the entire cohort, history of AF and secondary prevention were independent predictors of appropriate shocks and variables associated with inappropriate shocks were history of AF and QRS ≥150 milliseconds. In primary prevention patients, history of AF also predicted appropriate shocks as did ischemic cardiomyopathy and poorer LVEF. History of AF, QRS ≥150 milliseconds, and lower creatinine were associated with inappropriate shocks in this subgroup. Appropriate shocks increased mortality risk, but inappropriate shocks did not. In symptomatic CHF patients treated with CRT-D, history of AF is an independent risk factor not only for mortality, but also for appropriate and inappropriate shocks. Further efforts in AF management may optimize the care in CRT-D patients. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

Factors Associated With Mortality in Low-Risk Pediatric Critical Care Patients in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Verlaat, Carin W; Visser, Idse H; Wubben, Nina; Hazelzet, Jan A; Lemson, Joris; van Waardenburg, Dick; van der Heide, Douwe; van Dam, Nicolette A; Jansen, Nicolaas J; van Heerde, Mark; van der Starre, Cynthia; van Asperen, Roelie; Kneyber, Martin; van Woensel, Job B; van den Boogaard, Mark; van der Hoeven, Johannes

2017-04-01

To determine differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and factors associated with mortality in pediatric intensive care patients with low risk of mortality. Retrospective cohort study. Patients were selected from a national database including all admissions to the PICUs in The Netherlands between 2006 and 2012. Patients less than 18 years old admitted to the PICU with a predicted mortality risk lower than 1% according to either the recalibrated Pediatric Risk of Mortality or the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 were included. None. In total, 16,874 low-risk admissions were included of which 86 patients (0.5%) died. Nonsurvivors had more unplanned admissions (74.4% vs 38.5%; p < 0.001), had more complex chronic conditions (76.7% vs 58.8%; p = 0.001), were more often mechanically ventilated (88.1% vs 34.9%; p < 0.001), and had a longer length of stay (median, 11 [interquartile range, 5-32] d vs median, 3 [interquartile range, 2-5] d; p < 0.001) when compared with survivors. Factors significantly associated with mortality were complex chronic conditions (odds ratio, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.97-5.50), unplanned admissions (odds ratio, 5.78; 95% CI, 3.40-9.81), and admissions in spring/summer (odds ratio, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.58). Nonsurvivors in the PICU with a low predicted mortality risk have recognizable risk factors including complex chronic condition and unplanned admissions.

Psychological and Cognitive Determinants of Mortality: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Sample Followed over Thirty-five Years

PubMed Central

Karraker, Amelia; Schoeni, Robert F.; Cornman, Jennifer C.

2015-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that psychological factors, such as conscientiousness and anger, as well as cognitive ability are related to mortality. Less is known about 1) the relative importance of each of these factors in predicting mortality, 2) through what social, economic, and behavioral mechanisms these factors influence mortality, and 3) how these processes unfold over long periods of time in nationally-representative samples. We use 35 years (1972–2007) of data from men (ages 20–40) in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), a nationally representative sample in the United States, and discrete time event history analysis (n=27,373 person-years) to examine the importance of measures of follow-through (a dimension of conscientiousness), anger, and cognitive ability in predicting mortality. We also assess the extent to which income, marriage, and smoking explain the relationship between psychological and cognitive factors with mortality. We find that while follow-through, anger, and cognitive ability are all associated with subsequent mortality when modeled separately, when they are modeled together and baseline demographic characteristics are controlled, only anger remains associated with mortality: being in the top quartile for anger is associated with a 1.57 fold increase in the risk of dying at follow-up compared with those in the bottom quartile. This relationship is robust to the inclusion of income, marriage, and smoking as mediators. PMID:26397865

A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis

PubMed Central

Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

2017-01-01

Background: Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. Methods: A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. Results: The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = −7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr <60 ml/min = 1, Ccr ≥60 ml/min = 0] + 2.01 × [age ≥50 years = 1, age <50 years = 0] + 1.93 × [VT = 1, no VT = 0] + 1.39 × [NYHA ≥3 = 1, NYHA <3 = 0] + 1.25 × [male = 1, female = 0] + 1.13 × [cTnT ≥50 μg/L = 1, cTnT <50 μg/L = 0]). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96 (standard error = 0.015, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.99). The model demonstrated that a Ccr <60 ml/min (odds ratio [OR] = 19.94, 95% CI: 5.66–70.26), an age ≥50 years (OR = 7.43, 95% CI: 2.18–25.34), VT (OR = 6.89, 95% CI: 1.86–25.44), a NYHA classification ≥3 (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 1.13–14.32), male gender (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 0.99–12.20), and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.91–10.62) were the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: A Ccr <60 ml/min, an age ≥50 years, VT, an NYHA classification ≥3, male gender, and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L were the independent risk factors resulting from the prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with suspected myocarditis with multiple risk factors for in-hospital mortality. PMID:28345541

Individual and Center-Level Factors Affecting Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Alleman, Brandon W.; Li, Lei; Dagle, John M.; Smith, P. Brian; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Laughon, Matthew M.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Cotten, C. Michael; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Ellsbury, Dan L.; Hale, Ellen C.; Newman, Nancy S.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors affecting center differences in mortality for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. METHODS: We analyzed data for 5418 ELBW infants born at 16 Neonatal Research Network centers during 2006–2009. The primary outcomes of early mortality (≤12 hours after birth) and in-hospital mortality were assessed by using multilevel hierarchical models. Models were developed to investigate associations of center rates of selected interventions with mortality while adjusting for patient-level risk factors. These analyses were performed for all gestational ages (GAs) and separately for GAs <25 weeks and ≥25 weeks. RESULTS: Early and in-hospital mortality rates among centers were 5% to 36% and 11% to 53% for all GAs, 13% to 73% and 28% to 90% for GAs <25 weeks, and 1% to 11% and 7% to 26% for GAs ≥25 weeks, respectively. Center intervention rates significantly predicted both early and in-hospital mortality for infants <25 weeks. For infants ≥25 weeks, intervention rates did not predict mortality. The variance in mortality among centers was significant for all GAs and outcomes. Center use of interventions and patient risk factors explained some but not all of the center variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Center intervention rates explain a portion of the center variation in mortality, especially for infants born at <25 weeks’ GA. This finding suggests that deaths may be prevented by standardizing care for very early GA infants. However, differences in patient characteristics and center intervention rates do not account for all of the observed variability in mortality; and for infants with GA ≥25 weeks these differences account for only a small part of the variation in mortality. PMID:23753096

Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

2012-01-01

Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

PubMed

Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

2018-03-01

Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; P<0.001) for GPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

Population attributable risks of patient, child and organizational risk factors for perinatal mortality in hospital births.

PubMed

Poeran, Jashvant; Borsboom, Gerard J J M; de Graaf, Johanna P; Birnie, Erwin; Steegers, Eric A P; Bonsel, Gouke J

2015-04-01

The main objective of this study was to estimate the contributing role of maternal, child, and organizational risk factors in perinatal mortality by calculating their population attributable risks (PAR). The primary dataset comprised 1,020,749 singleton hospital births from ≥22 weeks' gestation (The Netherlands Perinatal Registry 2000-2008). PARs for single and grouped risk factors were estimated in four stages: (1) creating a duplicate dataset for each PAR analysis in which risk factors of interest were set to the most favorable value (e.g., all women assigned 'Western' for PAR calculation of ethnicity); (2) in the primary dataset an elaborate multilevel logistic regression model was fitted from which (3) the obtained coefficients were used to predict perinatal mortality in each duplicate dataset; (4) PARs were then estimated as the proportional change of predicted- compared to observed perinatal mortality. Additionally, PARs for grouped risk factors were estimated by using sequential values in two orders: after PAR estimation of grouped maternal risk factors, the resulting PARs for grouped child, and grouped organizational factors were estimated, and vice versa. The combined PAR of maternal, child and organizational factors is 94.4 %, i.e., when all factors are set to the most favorable value perinatal mortality is expected to be reduced with 94.4 %. Depending on the order of analysis, the PAR of maternal risk factors varies from 1.4 to 13.1 %, and for child- and organizational factors 58.7-74.0 and 7.3-34.3 %, respectively. In conclusion, the PAR of maternal-, child- and organizational factors combined is 94.4 %. Optimization of organizational factors may achieve a 34.3 % decrease in perinatal mortality.

Predictors of mortality in patients with emphysema and severe airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Martinez, Fernando J; Foster, Gregory; Curtis, Jeffrey L; Criner, Gerard; Weinmann, Gail; Fishman, Alfred; DeCamp, Malcolm M; Benditt, Joshua; Sciurba, Frank; Make, Barry; Mohsenifar, Zab; Diaz, Philip; Hoffman, Eric; Wise, Robert

2006-06-15

Limited data exist describing risk factors for mortality in patients having predominantly emphysema. A total of 609 patients with severe emphysema (ages 40-83 yr; 64.2% male) randomized to the medical therapy arm of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial formed the study group. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for all-cause mortality. Risk factors examined included demographics, body mass index, physiologic data, quality of life, dyspnea, oxygen utilization, hemoglobin, smoking history, quantitative emphysema markers on computed tomography, and a modification of a recently described multifunctional index (modified BODE). Overall, high mortality was seen in this cohort (12.7 deaths per 100 person-years; 292 total deaths). In multivariate analyses, increasing age (p=0.001), oxygen utilization (p=0.04), lower total lung capacity % predicted (p=0.05), higher residual volume % predicted (p=0.04), lower maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing workload (p=0.002), greater proportion of emphysema in the lower lung zone versus the upper lung zone (p=0.005), and lower upper-to-lower-lung perfusion ratio (p=0.007), and modified BODE (p=0.02) were predictive of mortality. FEV1 was a significant predictor of mortality in univariate analysis (p=0.005), but not in multivariate analysis (p=0.21). Although patients with advanced emphysema experience significant mortality, subgroups based on age, oxygen utilization, physiologic measures, exercise capacity, and emphysema distribution identify those at increased risk of death.

Socioeconomic and Behavioral Risk Factors for Mortality in a National 19-Year Prospective Study of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Lantz, Paula M.; Golberstein, Ezra; House, James S.; Morenoff, Jeffrey D.

2012-01-01

Many demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk factors predict mortality in the United States. However, very few population-based longitudinal studies are able to investigate simultaneously the impact of a variety of social factors on mortality. We investigated the degree to which demographic characteristics, socioeconomic variables and major health risk factors were associated with mortality in a nationally-representative sample of 3,617 U.S. adults from 1986-2005, using data from the 4 waves of the Americans’ Changing Lives study. Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates were employed to predict all-cause mortality verified through the National Death Index and death certificate review. The results revealed that low educational attainment was not associated with mortality when income and health risk behaviors were included in the model. The association of low-income with mortality remained after controlling for major behavioral risks. Compared to those in the “normal” weight category, neither overweight nor obesity was significantly associated with the risk of mortality. Among adults age 55 and older at baseline, the risk of mortality was actually reduced for those were overweight (hazard rate ratio=0.83, 95% C.I. = 0.71 – 0.98) and those who were obese (hazard rate ratio=0.68, 95% C.I. = 0.55 – 0.84), controlling for other health risk behaviors and health status. Having a low level of physical activity was a significant risk factor for mortality (hazard rate ratio=1.58, 95% C.I. = 1.20 – 2.07). The results from this national longitudinal study underscore the need for health policies and clinical interventions focusing on the social and behavioral determinants of health, with a particular focus on income security, smoking prevention/cessation, and physical activity. PMID:20226579

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality after Decompressive Hemicraniectomy for Malignant Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Kamran, Saadat; Salam, Abdul; Akhtar, Naveed; Alboudi, Aymen; Ahmad, Arsalan; Khan, Rabia; Nazir, Rashed; Nadeem, Muhammad; Inshasi, Jihad; ElSotouhy, Ahmed; Al Sulaiti, Ghanim; Shuaib, Ashfaq

2017-09-01

The purpose of this retrospective multicenter, pooled-data analysis was to determine the factors associated with in-hospital mortality in decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) for malignant middle cerebral artery (MMCA) stroke. The authors reviewed pooled DHC database from 3 countries for patients with MMCA with hospital mortality in spite of DHC to identify factors that predicted in-hospital mortality after DHC. The identified factors were applied to the group of patients who were selected for DHC but either refused surgery and died or stabilized and did not undergo DHC. There were 137 patients who underwent DHC. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed middle cerebral artery (MCA) with additional infarcts (odds ratio [OR], 7.9: 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-26; P = .001), preoperative midline shift of septum pellucidum of 1 cm or more (OR, 3.83: 95% CI, 1.13-12.96; P = .031), and patients who remained unconscious on day 7 postoperatively (8.82: 95% CI; OR, 1.08-71.9; P = .042) were significant independent predictors for in-hospital mortality. The identified factors were applied to the group of MMCA patients not operated (n = 19 refused, n = 47 stabilized) single (P < .001), and two predictive factors (P < .001) were significantly more common in patients who died. Whereas two predicative factors were identified in only 9%-18.2% of survivors, the presence of all three predictive factors was seen only in patients who expired (P < .001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics (chi-square = 4.65; P value = .589) indicate that the model adequately describes the data. Direct physical factors, such as MCA with additional territory infarct, extent of midline shift, and postoperative consciousness level, bore a significant relationship to in-hospital mortality in MMCA patients undergoing DHC. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cytokine activation is predictive of mortality in Zambian patients with AIDS-related diarrhoea

PubMed Central

Zulu, Isaac; Hassan, Ghaniah; Njobvu RN, Lungowe; Dhaliwal, Winnie; Sianongo, Sandie; Kelly, Paul

2008-01-01

Background Mortality in Zambian AIDS patients is high, especially in patients with diarrhoea, and there is still unacceptably high mortality in Zambian patients just starting anti-retroviral therapy. We set out to determine if high concentrations of serum cytokines correlate with mortality. Methods Serum samples from 30 healthy controls (HIV seropositive and seronegative) and 50 patients with diarrhoea (20 of whom died within 6 weeks) were analysed. Concentrations of tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (TNFR p55), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, interferon (IFN)-γ and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured by ELISA, and correlated with mortality after 6 weeks follow-up. Results Apart from IL-12, concentrations of all cytokines, TNFR p55 and CRP increased with worsening severity of disease, showing highly statistically significant trends. In a multivariable analysis high TNFR p55, IFN-γ, CRP and low CD4 count (CD4 count <100) were predictive of mortality. Although nutritional status (assessed by body mass index, BMI) was predictive in univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor in multivariate analysis. Conclusion High serum concentrations of TNFR p55, IFN-γ, CRP and low CD4 count correlated with disease severity and short-term mortality in HIV-infected Zambian adults with diarrhoea. These factors were better predictors of survival than BMI. Understanding the cause of TNFR p55, IFN-γ and CRP elevation may be useful in development of interventions to reduce mortality in AIDS patients with chronic diarrhoea in Africa. PMID:19014537

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in a cohort of elderly Egyptian patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Elsebaey, Mohamed A; Elashry, Heba; Elbedewy, Tamer A; Elhadidy, Ahmed A; Esheba, Noha E; Ezat, Sherif; Negm, Manal Saad; Abo-Amer, Yousry Esam-Eldin; Abgeegy, Mohamed El; Elsergany, Heba Fadl; Mansour, Loai; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief

2018-04-01

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) affects large number of elderly with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Early identification and management of the factors predicting in-hospital mortality might decrease mortality. This study was conducted to identify the causes of acute UGIB and the predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly Egyptian patients.286 elderly patients with acute UGIB were divided into: bleeding variceal group (161 patients) and bleeding nonvariceal group (125 patients). Patients' monitoring was done during hospitalization to identify the risk factors that might predict in-hospital mortality in elderly.Variceal bleeding was the most common cause of acute UGIB in elderly Egyptian patients. In-hospital mortality rate was 8.74%. Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding were the predictors of in-hospital mortality.Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding should be considered when triaging those patients for immediate resuscitation, close observation, and early treatment.

Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J.; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M.; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C.; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C.; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Katzke, Verena A.; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J.; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Boer, Jolanda M. A.; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G. M.; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

2016-01-01

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors. PMID:27409582

Clinical prediction of functional outcome after ischemic stroke: the surprising importance of periventricular white matter disease and race.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-02-01

We sought to build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk restratification as comorbid events accumulate. A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months poststroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3-month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Poststroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short-term poststroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation.

Metabolic syndrome, major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and ten-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in middle aged and elderly patients.

PubMed

Butnoriene, Jurate; Bunevicius, Adomas; Saudargiene, Ausra; Nemeroff, Charles B; Norkus, Antanas; Ciceniene, Vile; Bunevicius, Robertas

2015-01-01

Studies investigating specifically whether metabolic syndrome (MetS) and common psychiatric disorders are independently associated with mortality are lacking. In a middle-aged general population, we investigated the association of the MetS, current major depressive episode (MDE), lifetime MDE, and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) with ten-year all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. From February 2003 until January 2004, 1115 individuals aged 45 years and older were randomly selected from a primary care practice and prospectively evaluated for: (1) MetS (The World Health Organization [WHO], National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation [IDF] definitions); (2) current MDE and GAD, and lifetime MDE (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview); and (3) conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Follow-up continued through January, 2013. During the 9.32 ± 0.47 years of follow-up, there were 248 deaths, of which 148 deaths were attributed to cardiovascular causes. In women, WHO-MetS and IDF-MetS were associated with greater all-cause (HR-values range from 1.77 to 1.91; p-values ≤ 0.012) and cardiovascular (HR-values range from 1.83 to 2.77; p-values ≤ 0.013) mortality independent of cardiovascular risk factors and MDE/GAD. Current GAD predicted greater cardiovascular mortality (HR-values range from 1.86 to 1.99; p-values ≤ 0.025) independently from MetS and cardiovascular risk factors. In men, the MetS and MDE/GAD were not associated with mortality. In middle aged women, the MetS and GAD predicted greater 10-year cardiovascular mortality independently from each other; 10-year all-cause mortality was independently predicted by the MetS. MetS and GAD should be considered important and independent mortality risk factors in women. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plasma and blood viscosity in the prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Rumley, Ann; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh D; Lowe, Gordon DO

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit and plasma viscosity) are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality; however, their predictive value for CVD and mortality is not clear. Methods We prospectively assessed the added predictive value of plasma viscosity and whole blood viscosity and haematocrit in 3386 men and women aged 30-74 years participating in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort study. Results Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 819 CVD events and 778 deaths were recorded. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a 1 SD increase in plasma viscosity, adjusted for major CVD risk factors, were 1.12 (1.04-1.20) for CVD and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) for mortality. These remained significant after further adjustment for plasma fibrinogen: 1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.13 (1.04-1.22). The corresponding results for blood viscosity were 0.99 (0.90, 1.09) for CVD, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) for total mortality after adjustment for major CVD risk factors; and 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) and 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) after further adjustment for fibrinogen. Haematocrit showed similar associations to blood viscosity. When added to classical CVD risk factors, plasma viscosity improved the discrimination of CVD and mortality by 2.4% (0.7-4.4%) and 4.1% (2.0-6.5%). Conclusions Although plasma and blood viscosity may have a role in the pathogenesis of CVD and mortality, much of their association with CVD and mortality is due to the mutual effects of major CVD risk factors. However, plasma viscosity adds to the discrimination of CVD and mortality and might be considered for inclusion in multivariable risk scores.

Risk Factors for Post-NICU Discharge Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

De Jesus, Lilia C.; Pappas, Athina; Shankaran, Seetha; Kendrick, Douglas; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Bell, Edward F.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Walsh, Michele C.

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate maternal and neonatal risk factors associated with post-neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge mortality among ELBW infants. Study design This is a retrospective analysis of extremely low birth weight (<1,000 g) and <27 weeks' gestational age infants born in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network sites from January 2000 to June 2007. Infants were tracked until death or 18–22 months corrected age. Infants who died between NICU discharge and the 18–22 month follow-up visit were classified as post-NICU discharge mortality. Association of maternal and infant risk factors with post-NICU discharge mortality was determined using logistic regression analysis. A prediction model with six significant predictors was developed and validated. Results 5,364 infants survived to NICU discharge. 557 (10%) infants were lost to follow-up, and 107 infants died following NICU discharge. Post-NICU discharge mortality rate was 22.3 per 1000 ELBW infants. In the prediction model, African-American race, unknown maternal health insurance, and hospital stay ≥120 days significantly increased risk, and maternal exposure to intra-partum antibiotics was associated with decreased risk of post-NICU discharge mortality. Conclusion We identified African-American race, unknown medical insurance and prolonged NICU stay as risk factors associated with post-NICU discharge mortality among ELBW infants. PMID:22325187

Poverty, hunger, education, and residential status impact survival in HIV.

PubMed

McMahon, James; Wanke, Christine; Terrin, Norma; Skinner, Sally; Knox, Tamsin

2011-10-01

Despite combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV infected people have higher mortality than non-infected. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) predicts higher mortality in many chronic illnesses but data in people with HIV is limited. We evaluated 878 HIV infected individuals followed from 1995 to 2005. Cox proportional hazards for all-cause mortality were estimated for SES measures and other factors. Mixed effects analyses examined how SES impacts factors predicting death. The 200 who died were older, had lower CD4 counts, and higher viral loads (VL). Age, transmission category, education, albumin, CD4 counts, VL, hunger, and poverty predicted death in univariate analyses; age, CD4 counts, albumin, VL, and poverty in the multivariable model. Mixed models showed associations between (1) CD4 counts with education and hunger; (2) albumin with education, homelessness, and poverty; and (3) VL with education and hunger. SES contributes to mortality in HIV infected persons directly and indirectly, and should be a target of health policy in this population.

Psychological and cognitive determinants of mortality: Evidence from a nationally representative sample followed over thirty-five years.

PubMed

Karraker, Amelia; Schoeni, Robert F; Cornman, Jennifer C

2015-11-01

Growing evidence suggests that psychological factors, such as conscientiousness and anger, as well as cognitive ability are related to mortality. Less is known about 1) the relative importance of each of these factors in predicting mortality, 2) through what social, economic, and behavioral mechanisms these factors influence mortality, and 3) how these processes unfold over long periods of time in nationally-representative samples. We use 35 years (1972-2007) of data from men (ages 20-40) in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), a nationally representative sample in the United States, and discrete time event history analysis (n = 27,373 person-years) to examine the importance of measures of follow-through (a dimension of conscientiousness), anger, and cognitive ability in predicting mortality. We also assess the extent to which income, marriage, and smoking explain the relationship between psychological and cognitive factors with mortality. We find that while follow-through, anger, and cognitive ability are all associated with subsequent mortality when modeled separately, when they are modeled together and baseline demographic characteristics are controlled, only anger remains associated with mortality: being in the top quartile for anger is associated with a 1.57 fold increase in the risk of dying at follow-up compared with those in the bottom quartile. This relationship is robust to the inclusion of income, marriage, and smoking as mediators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors predicting mortality in patients with lung abscess in a public tertiary care center in Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Ghazal, Shaista; Kumar, Ashok; Shrestha, Binav; Sajid, Sana; Malik, Maria; Rizvi, Nadeen

2013-01-01

Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state-owned tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Out of the 41 patients hospitalized, 17 could not survive and were evaluated for clinical, radiological and microbiological factors to determine association with heightened mortality. Mortality due to lung abscess stood at 41.4% (17 of 41 cases). Adult male patients were found to have higher mortality with 13 out of 17 (43%) dead patients being male. A majority (21/41, 51.2%) of the cases belonged to the 41-60 year old age group. Highest mortality was seen in patients<20 years of age (3/4, 75%). Patients with blood sugar levels of >200 mg/dL (56%) succumb to disease. Patients with a positive history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol intake expressed mortality rates of 44%, 56%, and 50% respectively; while 29.4% of the mortalities were positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum culture. A significant association was found with elevated mortality and low haemoglobin levels at time of admission; mortality was 58% (p=0.005) in patients with Hb less than or equal to 10 mg/dL. The risk factors involved with heightened mortality included male gender and history of smoking, diabetes and alcohol intake. High blood sugar levels and detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum cultures were also implicated. Anemia (Hb level less than or equal to 10 mg/dl) was statistically significant predictive factor for increased mortality.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-01-01

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

Angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors predict organ dysfunction and mortality in post-cardiac arrest syndrome.

PubMed

Wada, Takeshi; Jesmin, Subrina; Gando, Satoshi; Yanagida, Yuichiro; Mizugaki, Asumi; Sultana, Sayeeda N; Zaedi, Sohel; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2012-09-29

Post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) often leads to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) with a poor prognosis. Endothelial and leukocyte activation after whole-body ischemia/reperfusion following resuscitation from cardiac arrest is a critical step in endothelial injury and related organ damage. Angiogenic factors, including vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and angiopoietin (Ang), and their receptors play crucial roles in endothelial growth, survival signals, pathological angiogenesis and microvascular permeability. The aim of this study was to confirm the efficacy of angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors in predicting organ dysfunction and mortality in patients with PCAS. A total of 52 resuscitated patients were divided into two subgroups: 23 survivors and 29 non-survivors. The serum levels of VEGF, soluble VEGF receptor (sVEGFR)1, sVEGFR2, Ang1, Ang2 and soluble Tie2 (sTie2) were measured at the time of admission (Day 1) and on Day 3 and Day 5. The ratio of Ang2 to Ang1 (Ang2/Ang1) was also calculated. This study compared the levels of angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors between survivors and non-survivors, and evaluated the predictive value of these factors for organ dysfunction and 28-day mortality. The non-survivors demonstrated more severe degrees of organ dysfunction and a higher prevalence of MODS. Non-survivors showed significant increases in the Ang2 levels and the Ang2/Ang1 ratios compared to survivors. A stepwise logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the Ang2 levels or the Ang2/Ang1 ratios on Day 1 independently predicted the 28-day mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the Ang2 levels, and the Ang2/Ang1 ratios on Day 1 were good predictors of 28-day mortality. The Ang2 levels also independently predicted increases in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. We observed a marked imbalance between Ang1 and Ang2 in favor of Ang2 in PCAS patients, and the effect was more prominent in non-survivors. Angiogenic factors and their soluble receptors, particularly Ang2 and Ang2/Ang1, are considered to be valuable predictive biomarkers in the development of organ dysfunction and poor outcomes in PCAS patients.

Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

2016-04-18

Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Proposal for a bariatric mortality risk classification system for patients undergoing bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ninh T; Nguyen, Brian; Smith, Brian; Reavis, Kevin M; Elliott, Christian; Hohmann, Samuel

2013-01-01

An obesity surgery mortality risk score derived from a single clinical series can be used to stratify the mortality risk of patients undergoing gastric bypass. However, such a scoring system does not take into account 2 important factors in contemporary bariatric surgery--increased use of the laparoscopic approach and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. The present study analyzed the preoperative factors that might predict in-hospital mortality after bariatric surgery using data from academic medical centers and proposes a classification system for predicting mortality. Using the "International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision," diagnosis and procedural codes, the data for all patients who underwent bariatric surgery for the treatment of morbid obesity from 2002 to 2009 were obtained from the University HealthSystem Consortium database. The limitations of this database included the lack of the body mass index and the underestimation of some co-morbidities, such as sleep apnea. Multiple regression analyses were performed to determine the factors predictive of greater in-hospital mortality. The factors examined included race, gender, age, co-morbidities, surgical technique (laparoscopic versus open), bariatric operation (gastric bypass versus nongastric bypass), and payer type. A scoring system was devised by assigning 1 point for each major factor (those with an adjusted odds ratio [AOR] of ≥2.0) and .5 point for each minor factor (those with an AOR <2.0). Using contemporary data from 2007 to 2009, the in-hospital mortality was analyzed according to the classification: class I, 0-0.5 point; class II, 1.0-1.5 points; class III, 2.0-3.0 points; and class IV, ≥3.5 points. During the 8-year period, 105,287 patients underwent bariatric surgery. The operations included laparoscopic gastric bypass (45%), open gastric bypass (41%), and laparoscopic gastric banding or gastroplasty (14%). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was .17%. The number of deaths per 1000 bariatric operations decreased from 4.0 in 2002 to .6 in 2009. Using regression analyses, the factors predictive of greater in-hospital mortality were male gender (AOR 3.2), gastric bypass procedure (AOR 5.8), open surgical technique (AOR 4.8), Medicare payer (AOR 3.0), diabetes (AOR 1.6), and age >60 years (AOR 1.9). The mortality rate was .10% for class I patients, .15% for class II, .33% for class III, and .70% for class IV (P < .05 among all classes). Within the context of academic centers, the mortality after bariatric surgery has decreased substantially since 2002, with an increase in the use of the laparoscopic technique and laparoscopic gastric banding. A bariatric mortality risk classification system was developed to stratify mortality, given the limits of this database, which does not include the body mass index and underestimates the incidence of sleep apnea. It might be useful to aid surgeons in surgical decision-making, to inform patients of their risks, and for quality improvement reporting purposes. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infant Maltreatment-Related Mortality in Alaska: Correcting the Count and Using Birth Certificates to Predict Mortality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrish, Jared W.; Gessner, Bradford D.

2010-01-01

Objectives: To accurately count the number of infant maltreatment-related fatalities and to use information from the birth certificates to predict infant maltreatment-related deaths. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study of infants born in Alaska for the years 1992 through 2005 was conducted. Risk factor variables were ascertained…

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Monteiro, D.; Silva, I.; Egipto, P.; Magalhães, A.; Filipe, R.; Silva, A.; Rodrigues, A.; Costa, J.

2017-01-01

Summary Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI. PMID:29021724

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors.

PubMed

Monteiro, D; Silva, I; Egipto, P; Magalhães, A; Filipe, R; Silva, A; Rodrigues, A; Costa, J

2017-06-30

Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI.

Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

2015-03-01

Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient risk factors for long-term mortality. Special attention and consideration should be given to these "at risk" patient sub-populations.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

2014-01-01

This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a younger population, including high blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight and obesity and diabetes, were not independent predictors of mortality in this population of older men.

Clinical Prediction of Functional Outcome after Ischemic Stroke: The Surprising Importance of Periventricular White Matter Disease and Race

PubMed Central

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J.; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L.; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-01-01

Background We sought 0074o build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk re-stratification as comorbid events accumulate. Methods A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months post-stroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3 month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Results Post-stroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short term post-stroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. Conclusions We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation. PMID:19109548

A Three-Step Approach To Model Tree Mortality in the State of Georgia

Treesearch

Qingmin Meng; Chris J. Cieszewski; Roger C. Lowe; Michal Zasada

2005-01-01

Tree mortality is one of the most complex phenomena of forest growth and yield. Many types of factors affect tree mortality, which is considered difficult to predict. This study presents a new systematic approach to simulate tree mortality based on the integration of statistical models and geographical information systems. This method begins with variable preselection...

Risk factors for in-hospital post-hip fracture mortality.

PubMed

Frost, Steven A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Black, Deborah A; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V

2011-09-01

Approximately 10% of hip fracture patients die during hospitalization; however, it is not clear what risk factors contribute to the excess mortality. This study sought to examine risk factors of, and to develop prognostic model for, predicting in-hospital mortality among hip fracture patients. We studied outcomes among 410 men and 1094 women with a hip fracture who were admitted to a major-teaching-hospital in Sydney (Australia) between 1997 and 2007. Clinical data, including concomitant illnesses, were obtained from inpatient data. The primary outcome of the study was in-hospital mortality regardless of length of stay. A Log-binomial regression model was used to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Using the identified risk factors, prognostic nomograms were developed for predicting short term risk of mortality for an individual. The median duration of hospitalization was 9 days. During hospitalization, the risk of mortality was higher in men (9%) than in women (4%). After adjusting for multiple risk factors, increased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with advancing age (rate ratio [RR] for each 10-year increase in age: 1.91 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.49), in men (RR 2.13; 95% CI 1.41 to 3.22), and the presence of comorbid conditions on admission (RR for one or more comorbid conditions vs. none: 2.30; 95% CI 1.52 to 3.48). Specifically, the risk of mortality was increased in patients with a pre-existing congestive heart failure (RR 3.02; 95% CI: 1.65 to 5.54), and liver disease (RR 4.75; 95% CI: 1.87 to 12.1). These factors collectively accounted for 69% of the risk for in-hospital mortality. A nomogram was developed from these risk factors to individualize the risk of in-hospital death following a hip fracture. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model containing age, sex and comorbid conditions was 0.76. These data suggest that among hip fracture patients, advancing age, gender (men), and pre-existing concomitant diseases such as congestive heart failure and liver disease were the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The nomogram developed from this study can be used to convey useful prognostic information to help guide treatment decisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Post-operative morbidity and mortality of a cohort of steroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis: Nationwide multicenter study of the GETECCU ENEIDA Registry.

PubMed

Ordás, I; Domènech, E; Mañosa, M; García-Sánchez, V; Iglesias-Flores, E; Rodríguez-Moranta, F; Márquez, L; Merino, O; Fernández-Bañares, F; Gomollón, F; Vera, M; Gutiérrez, A; LLaó, J; Gisbert, J P; Aguas, M; Arias, L; Rodríguez-Lago, I; Muñoz, C; Alcaide, N; Calvet, X; Rodríguez, C; Montoro, M A; García, S; De Castro, M L; Piqueras, M; Pareja, L; Ribes, J; Panés, J; Esteve, M

2018-05-01

Despite the increased use of rescue medical therapies for steroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis, mortality related to this entity still remains high. We aimed to assess the mortality and morbidity related to colectomy and their predictive factors in steroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis, and to evaluate the changes in mortality rates, complications, indications of colectomy, and the use of rescue therapy over time. We performed a multicenter observational study of patients with steroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis requiring colectomy, admitted to 23 Spanish hospitals included in the ENEIDA registry (GETECCU) from 1989 to 2014. Independent predictive factors of mortality were assessed by binary logistic regression analysis. Mortality along the study was calculated using the age-standardized rate. During the study period, 429 patients underwent colectomy, presenting an overall mortality rate of 6.3% (range, 0-30%). The main causes of death were infections and post-operative complications. Independent predictive factors of mortality were: age ≥50 years (OR 23.34; 95% CI: 6.46-84.311; p < 0.0001), undergoing surgery in a secondary care hospital (OR 3.07; 95% CI: 1.01-9.35; p = 0.047), and in an emergency setting (OR 10.47; 95% CI: 1.26-86.55; p = 0.029). Neither the use of rescue medical treatment nor the type of surgical technique used (laparoscopy vs. open laparotomy) influenced mortality. The proportion of patients undergoing surgery in an emergency setting decreased over time (p < 0.0001), whereas the use of rescue medical therapy prior to colectomy progressively increased (p > 0.001). The mortality rate related to colectomy in steroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis varies greatly among hospitals, reinforcing the need for a continuous audit to achieve quality standards. The increasing use of rescue therapy is not associated with a worse outcome and may contribute to reducing emergency surgical interventions and improve outcomes.

Development of a Risk Score Based on Aortic Calcification to Predict 1-year Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

PubMed

Lantelme, Pierre; Eltchaninoff, Hélène; Rabilloud, Muriel; Souteyrand, Géraud; Dupré, Marion; Spaziano, Marco; Bonnet, Marc; Becle, Clément; Riche, Benjamin; Durand, Eric; Bouvier, Erik; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Cassagnes, Lucie; Dávila Serrano, Eduardo E; Motreff, Pascal; Boussel, Loic; Lefèvre, Thierry; Harbaoui, Brahim

2018-05-11

The aim of this study was to develop a new scoring system based on thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) to predict 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A calcified aorta is often associated with poor prognosis after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). A risk score encompassing aortic calcification may be valuable in identifying poor TAVR responders. The C 4 CAPRI (4 Cities for Assessing CAlcification PRognostic Impact) multicenter study included a training cohort (1,425 patients treated using TAVR between 2010 and 2014) and a contemporary test cohort (311 patients treated in 2015). TAC was measured by computed tomography pre-TAVR. CAPRI risk scores were based on the linear predictors of Cox models including TAC in addition to comorbidities and demographic, atherosclerotic disease and cardiac function factors. CAPRI scores were constructed and tested in 2 independent cohorts. Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 1 year was 13.0% and 17.9%, respectively, in the training cohort and 8.2% and 11.8% in the test cohort. The inclusion of TAC in the model improved prediction: 1-cm 3 increase in TAC was associated with a 6% increase in cardiovascular mortality and a 4% increase in all-cause mortality. The predicted and observed survival probabilities were highly correlated (slopes >0.9 for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality). The model's predictive power was fair (AUC 68% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 64-72]) for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The model performed similarly in the training and test cohorts. The CAPRI score, which combines the TAC variable with classical prognostic factors, is predictive of 1-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Its predictive performance was confirmed in an independent contemporary cohort. CAPRI scores are highly relevant to current practice and strengthen the evidence base for decision making in valvular interventions. Its routine use may help prevent futile procedures. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Risk Prediction Model and Clinical Risk Score for Isolated Tricuspid Valve Surgery.

PubMed

LaPar, Damien J; Likosky, Donald S; Zhang, Min; Theurer, Patty; Fonner, C Edwin; Kern, John A; Bolling, Stephen F; Drake, Daniel H; Speir, Alan M; Rich, Jeffrey B; Kron, Irving L; Prager, Richard L; Ailawadi, Gorav

2018-02-01

While tricuspid valve (TV) operations remain associated with high mortality (∼8-10%), no robust prediction models exist to support clinical decision-making. We developed a preoperative clinical risk model with an easily calculable clinical risk score (CRS) to predict mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. Multi-state Society of Thoracic Surgeons database records were evaluated for 2,050 isolated TV repair and replacement operations for any etiology performed at 50 hospitals (2002-2014). Parsimonious preoperative risk prediction models were developed using multi-level mixed effects regression to estimate mortality and composite major morbidity risk. Model results were utilized to establish a novel CRS for patients undergoing TV operations. Models were evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Operative mortality and composite major morbidity rates were 9% and 42%, respectively. Final regression models performed well (both P<0.001, AUC = 0.74 and 0.76) and included preoperative factors: age, gender, stroke, hemodialysis, ejection fraction, lung disease, NYHA class, reoperation and urgent or emergency status (all P<0.05). A simple CRS from 0-10+ was highly associated (P<0.001) with incremental increases in predicted mortality and major morbidity. Predicted mortality risk ranged from 2%-34% across CRS categories, while predicted major morbidity risk ranged from 13%-71%. Mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery can be predicted using preoperative patient data from the STS Adult Cardiac Database. A simple clinical risk score predicts mortality and major morbidity after isolated TV surgery. This score may facilitate perioperative counseling and identification of suitable patients for TV surgery. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?

PubMed

Perozek, Maria

2008-02-01

Old-age mortality is notoriously difficult to predict because it requires not only an understanding of the process of senescence-which is influenced by genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors-but also a prediction of how these factors will evolve. In this paper I argue that individuals are uniquely qualified to predict their own mortality based on their own genetic background, as well as environmental and behavioral risk factors that are often known only to the individual. Given this private information, individuals form expectations about survival probabilities that may provide additional information to demographers and policymakers in their challenge to predict mortality. From expectations data from the 1992 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I construct subjective, cohort life tables that are shown to predict the unusual direction of revisions to U.S. life expectancy by gender between 1992 and 2004: that is, for these cohorts, the Social Security Actuary (SSA) raised male life expectancy in 2004 and at the same lowered female life expectancy, narrowing the gender gap in longevity by 25% over this period. Further, although the subjective life expectancies for men appear to be roughly in line with the 2004 life tables, the subjective expectations of women suggest that female life expectancies estimated by the SSA might still be on the high side.

Comparison of mortality prediction models in burns ICU patients in Pinderfields Hospital over 3 years.

PubMed

Douglas, Helen E; Ratcliffe, Andrew; Sandhu, Rajdeep; Anwar, Umair

2015-02-01

Many different burns mortality prediction models exist; however most agree that important factors that can be weighted include the age of the patient, the total percentage of body surface area burned and the presence or absence of smoke inhalation. A retrospective review of all burns primarily admitted to Pinderfields Burns ICU under joint care of burns surgeons and intensivists for the past 3 years was completed. Predicted mortality was calculated using the revised Baux score (2010), the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury score (2009) and the Boston group score by Ryan et al. (1998). Additionally 28 of the 48 patients had APACHE II scores recorded on admission and the predicted and actual mortality of this group were compared. The Belgian score had the highest sensitivity and negative predictive value (72%/85%); followed by the Boston score (66%/78%) and then the revised Baux score (53%/70%). APACHE II scores had higher sensitivity (81%) and NPV (92%) than any of the burns scores. In our group of burns ICU patients the Belgian model was the most sensitive and specific predictor of mortality. In our subgroup of patients with APACHE II data, this score more accurately predicted survival and mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Clinical Utility of Five Genetic Variants for Predicting Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

PubMed Central

Salinas, Claudia A.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Kwon, Erika M.; FitzGerald, Liesel; Lin, Daniel W.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Feng, Ziding; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Background A recent report suggests that the combination of five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 8q24, 17q12, 17q24.3 and a family history of the disease may predict risk of prostate cancer. The present study tests the performance of these factors in prediction models for prostate cancer risk and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Methods SNPs were genotyped in population-based samples from Caucasians in King County, Washington. Incident cases (n=1308), aged 35–74, were compared to age-matched controls (n=1266) using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) associated with genotypes and family history. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios for prostate cancer-specific mortality according to genotypes. Results The combination of SNP genotypes and family history was significantly associated with prostate cancer risk (ptrend=1.5 × 10−20). Men with ≥ five risk factors had an OR of 4.9 (95% CI 1.6 to 18.5) compared to men with none. However, this combination of factors did not improve the ROC curve after accounting for known risk predictors (i.e., age, serum PSA, family history). Neither the individual nor combined risk factors was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality. Conclusion Genotypes for five SNPs plus family history are associated with a significant elevation in risk for prostate cancer and may explain up to 45% of prostate cancer in our population. However, they do not improve prediction models for assessing who is at risk of getting or dying from the disease, once known risk or prognostic factors are taken into account. Thus, this SNP panel may have limited clinical utility. PMID:19058137

Serum peroxiredoxin 4: a marker of oxidative stress associated with mortality in type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-28).

PubMed

Gerrits, Esther G; Alkhalaf, Alaa; Landman, Gijs W D; van Hateren, Kornelis J J; Groenier, Klaas H; Struck, Joachim; Schulte, Janin; Gans, Reinold O B; Bakker, Stephan J L; Kleefstra, Nanne; Bilo, Henk J G

2014-01-01

Oxidative stress plays an underlying pathophysiologic role in the development of diabetes complications. The aim of this study was to investigate peroxiredoxin 4 (Prx4), a proposed novel biomarker of oxidative stress, and its association with and capability as a biomarker in predicting (cardiovascular) mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Prx4 was assessed in baseline serum samples of 1161 type 2 diabetes patients. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the relationship between Prx4 and (cardiovascular) mortality. Risk prediction capabilities of Prx4 for (cardiovascular) mortality were assessed with Harrell's C statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement. Mean age was 67 and the median diabetes duration was 4.0 years. After a median follow-up period of 5.8 years, 327 patients died; 137 cardiovascular deaths. Prx4 was associated with (cardiovascular) mortality. The Cox proportional hazard models added the variables: Prx4 (model 1); age and gender (model 2), and BMI, creatinine, smoking, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol-HDL ratio, history of macrovascular complications, and albuminuria (model 3). Hazard ratios (HR) (95% CI) for cardiovascular mortality were 1.93 (1.57 - 2.38), 1.75 (1.39 - 2.20), and 1.63 (1.28 - 2.09) for models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. HR for all-cause mortality were 1.73 (1.50 - 1.99), 1.50 (1.29 - 1.75), and 1.44 (1.23 - 1.67) for models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Addition of Prx4 to the traditional risk factors slightly improved risk prediction of (cardiovascular) mortality. Prx4 is independently associated with (cardiovascular) mortality in type 2 diabetes patients. After addition of Prx4 to the traditional risk factors, there was a slightly improvement in risk prediction of (cardiovascular) mortality in this patient group.

Mortality Differences Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage: A Risk-Adjusted Assessment Using Claims Data

PubMed Central

Beveridge, Roy A.; Mendes, Sean M.; Caplan, Arial; Rogstad, Teresa L.; Olson, Vanessa; Williams, Meredith C.; McRae, Jacquelyn M.; Vargas, Stefan

2017-01-01

Medicare Advantage (MA) has grown rapidly since the Affordable Care Act; nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries now choose MA. An assessment of the comparative value of the 2 options is confounded by an apparent selection bias favoring MA, as reflected in mortality differences. Previous assessments have been hampered by lack of access to claims diagnosis data for the MA population. An indirect comparison of mortality as an outcome variable was conducted by modeling mortality on a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data set, applying the model to an MA data set, and then evaluating the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality in the MA data set. The mortality model adjusted for clinical conditions and demographic factors. Model development considered the effect of potentially greater coding intensity in the MA population. Further analysis calculated ratios for subpopulations. Predicted, risk-adjusted mortality was lower in the MA population than in FFS Medicare. However, the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality (0.80) suggested that the individuals in the MA data set were less likely to die than would be predicted had those individuals been enrolled in FFS Medicare. Differences between actual and predicted mortality were particularly pronounced in low income (dual eligibility), nonwhite race, high morbidity, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) subgroups. After controlling for baseline clinical risk as represented by claims diagnosis data, mortality differences favoring MA over FFS Medicare persisted, particularly in vulnerable subgroups and HMO plans. These findings suggest that differences in morbidity do not fully explain differences in mortality between the 2 programs. PMID:28578605

Association between circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 and mortality in end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Kohara, Marina; Masuda, Takahiro; Shiizaki, Kazuhiro; Akimoto, Tetsu; Watanabe, Yuko; Honma, Sumiko; Sekiguchi, Chuji; Miyazawa, Yasuharu; Kusano, Eiji; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Asano, Yasushi; Kuro-O, Makoto; Nagata, Daisuke

2017-01-01

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is an endocrine factor that regulates glucose and lipid metabolism. Circulating FGF21 predicts cardiovascular events and mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus, including early-stage chronic kidney disease, but its impact on clinical outcomes in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients remains unclear. This study enrolled 90 ESRD patients receiving chronic hemodialysis who were categorized into low- and high-FGF21 groups by the median value. We investigated the association between circulating FGF21 levels and the cardiovascular event and mortality during a median follow-up period of 64 months. A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the mortality rate was significantly higher in the high-FGF21 group than in the low-FGF21 group (28.3% vs. 9.1%, log-rank, P = 0.034), while the rate of cardiovascular events did not significantly differ between the two groups (30.4% vs. 22.7%, log-rank, P = 0.312). In multivariable Cox models adjusted a high FGF21 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 3.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.39-14.27, P = 0.009). Higher circulating FGF21 levels were associated with a high mortality rate, but not cardiovascular events in patient with ESRD, suggesting that circulating FGF21 levels serve as a predictive marker for mortality in these subjects.

Predicting risk of coronary events and all-cause mortality: role of B-type natriuretic peptide above traditional risk factors and coronary artery calcium scoring in the general population: the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

PubMed

Kara, Kaffer; Mahabadi, Amir A; Berg, Marie H; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Neumann, Till; Erbel, Raimund

2014-09-01

Several biomarkers including B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been suggested to improve prediction of coronary events and all-cause mortality. Moreover, coronary artery calcium (CAC) as marker of subclinical atherosclerosis is a strong predictor for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of BNP and CAC for all-cause mortality and coronary events above traditional cardiovascular risk factors (TRF) in the general population. We followed 3782 participants of the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall cohort study without coronary artery disease at baseline for 7.3 ± 1.3 years. Associations of BNP and CAC with incident coronary events and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox regression, Harrell's c, and time-dependent integrated discrimination improvement (IDI(t), increase in explained variance). Subjects with high BNP levels had increased frequency of coronary events and death (coronary events/mortality: 14.1/28.2% for BNP ≥100 pg/ml vs. 2.7/5.5% for BNP < 100 pg/ml, respectively). Subjects with a BNP ≥100 pg/ml had increased incidence of hard endpoints sustaining adjustment for CAC and TRF (for coronary events: hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) 3.41(1.78-6.53); for all-cause mortality: HR 3.35(2.15-5.23)). Adding BNP to TRF and CAC increased measures of predictive ability: coronary events (Harrell's c, for coronary events, 0.775-0.784, p = 0.09; for all-cause mortality 0.733-0.740, p = 0.04; and IDI(t) (95% CI), for coronary events: 2.79% (0.33-5.65%) and for all-cause mortality 1.78% (0.73-3.10%). Elevated levels of BNP are associated with excess incident coronary events and all-cause mortality rates, with BNP and CAC significantly and complementary improving prediction of risk in the general population above TRF. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Quality and Safety in Health Care, Part XXXII: Additional Outcome Predictors for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

PubMed

Harolds, Jay A

2018-02-01

Mortality 12 months after a transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is partly due to a number of reasons in addition to the usual preprocedural medical patient risk factors. In patients who need a permanent pacemaker placed after the procedure, the mortality risk goes up. The death rate following a TAVR varies considerably at different institutions, and the past death rate of TAVR patients at an institution is predictive of the mortality rate of new patients having this procedure. In addition, the quality of life of the individual before the procedure is predictive of the 12-month mortality outcome after the TAVR is done.

Differences in open versus laparoscopic gastric bypass mortality risk using the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS).

PubMed

Brolin, Robert E; Cody, Ronald P; Marcella, Stephen W

2015-01-01

The Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS) was developed to ascertain preoperative mortality risk of patients having bariatric surgery. To date there has not been a comparison between open and laparoscopic operations using the OS-MRS. To determine whether there are differences in mortality risk between open and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB) using the OS-MRS. Three university-affiliated hospitals. The 90-day mortality of 2467 consecutive patients who had primary open (1574) or laparoscopic (893) RYGB performed by one surgeon was determined. Univariate and multivariate analysis using 5 OS-MRS risk factors including body mass index (BMI) gender, age>45, presence of hypertension and preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk was performed in each group. Each patient was placed in 1 of 3 OS-MRS risk classes based on the number of risks: A (0-1), B (2-3), and C (4-5). Preoperative BMI and DVT risk factors were significantly greater in the open group (OG). Preoperative age was significantly greater in the laparoscopic group (LG). There were significantly more class B and C patients in LG. Ninety-day mortality rates for OG and LG patients were 1.0% and .9%, respectively. Pulmonary embolism was the most common cause of death. All deaths in LG occurred during first 4 years of that experience. Mortality rate by class was A = .1%; B = 1.5%; C = 2.3%. The difference in mortality between class B and C patients was not significant. Univariate analysis in the OG indicated that BMI, age, gender, and DVT risk were significant predictors of mortality. In the LG only BMI and DVT were significant predictors of death. Presence of hypertension was not a significant predictor in either group. Multivariate analysis excluding hypertension found that age was predictive of mortality in the OG while BMI (P = .057) and gender (P = .065) approached statistical significance. Conversely, only BMI was predictive of mortality in the LG with age approaching significance (P = .058). In multivariate analysis DVT risk was not predictive of mortality in either group. There are significant differences in the predictive value of the OS-MRS between open and laparoscopic RYGB. Although laparoscopic patients were significantly older versus the open patients, age was not predictive of mortality after laparoscopic RYGB. BMI trended toward increased mortality risk in both groups. Changes in technique and protocol likely contributed toward no mortality during the last 6 years of our laparoscopic experience. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality.

PubMed

Das, Adrian J; Stephenson, Nathan L; Davis, Kristin P

2016-10-01

The drivers of background tree mortality rates-the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought-are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the "ambient" or "random" background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Davis, Kristin P.

2016-01-01

The drivers of background tree mortality rates—the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought—are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the “ambient” or “random” background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots.

A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

2009-01-01

Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

Gender imbalance in infant mortality: a cross-national study of social structure and female infanticide.

PubMed

Fuse, Kana; Crenshaw, Edward M

2006-01-01

Sex differentials in infant mortality vary widely across nations. Because newborn girls are biologically advantaged in surviving to their first birthday, sex differentials in infant mortality typically arise from genetic factors that result in higher male infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, there are cases where mortality differentials arise from social or behavioral factors reflecting deliberate discrimination by adults in favor of boys over girls, resulting in atypical male to female infant mortality ratios. This cross-national study of 93 developed and developing countries uses such macro-social theories as modernization theory, gender perspectives, human ecology, and sociobiology/evolutionary psychology to predict gender differentials in infant mortality. We find strong evidence for modernization theory, human ecology, and the evolutionary psychology of group process, but mixed evidence for gender perspectives.

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

[Factors predicting mortality during an outbreak of Legionnaire's disease in the north of France].

PubMed

Prevotat, A; Bure, M; Bergoin, C; Tavernier, J-Y; Van Grunderbeeck, N; Yazdanpanah, Y; Lamblin, C

2008-03-01

Between November 2003 and January 2004 in the North of France a large outbreak of legionnaire's disease affected 85 patients. The clinical, biological and radiological characteristics of the patients were investigated to determine factors associated with mortality. Two populations were defined and compared: patients who died within 28 days and those who survived. Eighty-five patients were included in this study. The median age was 75 years. The median fever was 39.3 +/- 0.1 degrees. Fifteen patients (17.6%) had at least 3 underlying co-morbidities. Cough, dyspnoea, confusion and diarrhoea were found in respectively 46, 68, 47, and 15% of the patients. The median of urea was 0.7 +/- 0.05 g/L, creatinine 16 +/- 1.5 mg/L, CRP 332 +/- 15 mg/L. On the chest X-ray, lung infiltrates were present in 64% and multilobar in 40%. The overall mortality rate was 21%. In univariate analysis, diabetes mellitus, dyspnoea, urea>0.90 g/l and CRP>350 mg/l were predictive factors of mortality. In multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus, urea>0.90 g/l, and bilateral infiltrates on chest X ray were retained as independent risk factors for death.

Impact of functional status on 6-month mortality in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism: results from a prospective cohort.

PubMed

Gómez-Cuervo, Covadonga; Díaz-Pedroche, Carmen; Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, María Asunción; Lalueza, Antonio; Del Pozo, Roberto; Díaz-Simón, Raquel; Trapiello, Francisco; Paredes, Diana; Lumbreras, Carlos

2018-06-05

Functional status linked to a poor outcome in a broad spectrum of medical disorders. Barthel Activities of Daily Life Index (BADLI) is one of the most extended tools to quantify functional dependence. Whether BADLI can help to predict outcomes in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. The current study aimed to ascertain the influence of BADLI on 6-month all-cause mortality in aged patients with VTE. This is a prospective observational study. We included consecutive patients older than 75-year-old with an acute VTE between April 2015 and April 2017. We analyzed several variables as mortality predictors, including BADLI-measured functional status. Afterward, we performed a multivariate analysis, using logistic regression, to identify all-cause mortality independent predictive factors. Two hundred and two subjects were included. Thirty-five (17%) patients died in the first 6 months. The leading cause of death was cancer (59%). After multivariable logistic regression, we identified BADLI and Charlson index as independent predictors for 6-months mortality [BADLI (every decrease of 10 points) OR 1.21 95% CI (1.03-1.42) and Charlson index OR 1.71 95% CI (1.21-2.43)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were inversely related to mortality [OR 0.85 95% CI (0.75-0.95)]. In conclusion, BADLI, BMI, and Charlson index scores are independent predictive factors for 6-month all-cause mortality in old patients with VTE.

Socioeconomic and Tobacco Mediation of Ethnic Inequalities in Mortality over Time

PubMed Central

Disney, George; Valeri, Linda; Atkinson, June; Teng, Andrea; Wilson, Nick; Gurrin, Lyle

2018-01-01

Background: Racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality may be reducible by addressing socioeconomic factors and smoking. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate trends over multiple decades in (1) mediation of racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality (between Māori and Europeans in New Zealand) by socioeconomic factors, (2) additional mediation through smoking, and (3) inequalities had there never been smoking. Methods: We estimated natural (1 and 2 above) and controlled mediation effects (3 above) in census-mortality cohorts for 1981–1984 (1.1 million people), 1996–1999 (1.5 million), and 2006–2011 (1.5 million) for 25- to 74-year-olds in New Zealand, using a weighting of regression predicted outcomes. Results: Socioeconomic factors explained 46% of male inequalities in all three cohorts and made an increasing contribution over time among females from 30.4% (95% confidence interval = 18.1%, 42.7%) in 1981–1984 to 41.9% (36.0%, 48.0%). Including smoking with socioeconomic factors only modestly altered the percentage mediated for males, but more substantially increased it for females, for example, 7.7% (5.5%, 10.0%) in 2006–2011. A counterfactual scenario of having eradicated tobacco in the past (but unchanged socioeconomic distribution) lowered mortality for all sex-by-ethnic groups and resulted in a 12.2% (2.9%, 20.8%) and 21.2% (11.6%, 31.0%) reduction in the absolute mortality gap between Māori and Europeans in 2006–2011, for males and females, respectively. Conclusions: Our study predicts that, in this high-income country, reducing socioeconomic disparities between ethnic groups would greatly reduce ethnic inequalities in mortality over the long run. Eradicating tobacco would notably reduce ethnic inequalities in absolute but not relative mortality. PMID:29642084

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics.

PubMed

Hasanpour Mir, Mahsa; Yousefshahi, Fardin; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Ahmadi, Arezoo; Nadjafi, Atabak; Mojtahedzadeh, Mojtaba

2012-12-30

The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia.To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury.

[Predictive factors of mortality of the burnt persons: study on 221 adults hospitalized between 2004 and 2009].

PubMed

Elkafssaoui, S; Hami, H; Mrabet, M; Bouaiti, E; Tourabi, K; Quyou, A; Soulaymani, A; Ihrai, H

2014-06-01

The objective of the present study is the evaluation of the predictive factors of mortality to a troop of Moroccan grown-up serious burnt persons. Variables analyzed in the study are: the age, the sex, the localization of the burn, the degree of burn, indicates Total Body Surface Area (TBSA), indicate Unit of Standard Burn (UBS) and the indication of leases, sepsis and the medical histories (tobacco, diabetes). Factors associated significantly to a mortality raised at the burned patients were the female genital organ, the localization of the burn at the level of the head, the sepsis, one TBSA greater or equal to 20%, an UBS greater or equal to 200 and an indication of leases greater or equal to 75. Other factors such as the age, the degree of burn and the histories did not show a significant difference. An evaluation and a good knowledge of factors associated to a high risk of death allow an adequate coverage of this category of patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

PubMed Central

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

PubMed

Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

2016-01-01

Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile (< 0.18), those in the uppermost tertile (> 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

Predictors of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump Insertion in Coronary Surgery and Mid-Term Results

PubMed Central

Yurekli, Ismail; Celik, Ersin; Yetkin, Ufuk; Yilik, Levent; Gurbuz, Ali

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to investigate the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors affecting intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) insertion in patients undergoing isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We also investigated factors affecting morbidity, mortality, and survival in patients with IABP support. Methods Between January 2002 and December 2009, 1,657 patients underwent isolated CABG in İzmir Katip Celebi University Atatürk Training and Research Hospital. The number of patients requiring support with IABP was 134 (8.1%). Results In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time and prolonged operation time were independent predictive factors of IABP insertion. The postoperative mortality rate was 35.8% and 1% in patients with and without IABP support, respectively (p=0.000). Postoperative renal insufficiency, prolonged ventilatory support, and postoperative atrial fibrillation were independent predictive factors of postoperative mortality in patients with IABP support. The mean follow-up time was 38.55±22.70 months and 48.78±25.20 months in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. The follow-up mortality rate was 3% (n=4) and 5.3% (n=78) in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. Conclusion The patients with IABP support had a higher postoperative mortality rate and a longer length of intensive care unit and hospital stay. The mid-term survival was good for patients surviving the early postoperative period. PMID:24368971

Usefulness of the addition of beta-2-microglobulin, cystatin C and C-reactive protein to an established risk factors model to improve mortality risk prediction in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

PubMed

Nead, Kevin T; Zhou, Margaret J; Caceres, Roxanne Diaz; Sharp, Stephen J; Wehner, Mackenzie R; Olin, Jeffrey W; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2013-03-15

Evidence-based therapies are available to reduce the risk for death from cardiovascular disease, yet many patients go untreated. Novel methods are needed to identify those at highest risk for cardiovascular death. In this study, the biomarkers β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein were measured at baseline in a cohort of participants who underwent coronary angiography. Adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine whether the biomarkers predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Additionally, improvements in risk reclassification and discrimination were evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement, C-index, and integrated discrimination improvement with the addition of the biomarkers to a baseline model of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and death. During a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, there were 78 deaths among 470 participants. All biomarkers independently predicted future all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A significant improvement in risk reclassification was observed for all-cause (net reclassification improvement 35.8%, p = 0.004) and cardiovascular (net reclassification improvement 61.9%, p = 0.008) mortality compared to the baseline risk factors model. Additionally, there was significantly increased risk discrimination with C-indexes of 0.777 (change in C-index 0.057, 95% confidence interval 0.016 to 0.097) and 0.826 (change in C-index 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.133) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Improvements in risk discrimination were further supported using the integrated discrimination improvement index. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein predict mortality and improve risk reclassification and discrimination for a high-risk cohort of patients who undergo coronary angiography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic and Pathogenetic Value of Combining Clinical and Biochemical Indices in Patients With Acute Lung Injury

PubMed Central

Koyama, Tatsuki; Billheimer, D. Dean; Wu, William; Bernard, Gordon R.; Thompson, B. Taylor; Brower, Roy G.; Standiford, Theodore J.; Martin, Thomas R.; Matthay, Michael A.

2010-01-01

Background: No single clinical or biologic marker reliably predicts clinical outcomes in acute lung injury (ALI)/ARDS. We hypothesized that a combination of biologic and clinical markers would be superior to either biomarkers or clinical factors alone in predicting ALI/ARDS mortality and would provide insight into the pathogenesis of clinical ALI/ARDS. Methods: Eight biologic markers that reflect endothelial and epithelial injury, inflammation, and coagulation (von Willebrand factor antigen, surfactant protein D [SP-D]), tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin [IL]-6, IL-8, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, protein C, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1) were measured in baseline plasma from 549 patients in the ARDSNet trial of low vs high positive end-expiratory pressure. Mortality was modeled with multivariable logistic regression. Predictors were selected using backward elimination. Comparisons between candidate models were based on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and tests of integrated discrimination improvement. Results: Clinical predictors (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation III [APACHE III], organ failures, age, underlying cause, alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient, plateau pressure) predicted mortality with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.82; a combination of eight biomarkers and the clinical predictors had an AUC of 0.85. The best performing biomarkers were the neutrophil chemotactic factor, IL-8, and SP-D, a product of alveolar type 2 cells, supporting the concept that acute inflammation and alveolar epithelial injury are important pathogenetic pathways in human ALI/ARDS. Conclusions: A combination of biomarkers and clinical predictors is superior to clinical predictors or biomarkers alone for predicting mortality in ALI/ARDS and may be useful for stratifying patients in clinical trials. From a pathogenesis perspective, the degree of acute inflammation and alveolar epithelial injury are highly associated with the outcome of human ALI/ARDS. PMID:19858233

Risk of mortality after spinal cord injury: relationship with social support, education, and income.

PubMed

Krause, J S; Carter, R E

2009-08-01

Prospective cohort study. To identify the association of social support and socioeconomic factors with risk of early mortality among persons with spinal cord injury. Participants were identified from a large specialty hospital in the Southeastern United States. Data were collected by mailed survey, and mortality status was ascertained approximately 8 years later. The outcome was time from survey to mortality or censoring. Mortality status was determined using the National Death Index and the Social Security Death Index. There were 224 observed deaths (16.2%) in the full sample (n=1386). Because of missing data, the number of deaths used in the final analysis was 188 (out of 1249 participants). Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to build a comprehensive predictive model. After controlling for biographic and injury-related factors, two of four environmental predictors were retained in the final model including low income and general social support. Years of education and the upsets scale, another aspect of social support, were not retained in the final model. Inclusion of these variables resulted in only modest improvement in the prediction of survival compared with biographic and injury variables alone, as the pseudo-R(2) increased from 0.121 to 0.134 and the concordance from 0.730 to 0.751. Environmental factors are important predictors of mortality after spinal cord injury.

Associations Between the Serum Metabolome and All-Cause Mortality Among African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

PubMed Central

Yu, Bing; Heiss, Gerardo; Alexander, Danny; Grams, Morgan E.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2016-01-01

Early and accurate identification of people at high risk of premature death may assist in the targeting of preventive therapies in order to improve overall health. To identify novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality, we performed untargeted metabolomics in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We included 1,887 eligible ARIC African Americans, and 671 deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 22.5 years (1987–2011). Chromatography and mass spectroscopy identified and quantitated 204 serum metabolites, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the longitudinal associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Nine metabolites, including cotinine, mannose, glycocholate, pregnendiol disulfate, α-hydroxyisovalerate, N-acetylalanine, andro-steroid monosulfate 2, uridine, and γ-glutamyl-leucine, showed independent associations with all-cause mortality, with an average risk change of 18% per standard-deviation increase in metabolite level (P < 1.23 × 10−4). A metabolite risk score, created on the basis of the weighted levels of the identified metabolites, improved the predictive ability of all-cause mortality over traditional risk factors (bias-corrected Harrell's C statistic 0.752 vs. 0.730). Mannose and glycocholate were associated with cardiovascular mortality (P < 1.23 × 10−4), but predictive ability was not improved beyond the traditional risk factors. This metabolomic analysis revealed potential novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality beyond the traditional risk factors. PMID:26956554

Factors Predicting Mortality in Midlife Adults with and without Down Syndrome Living with Family

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esbensen, A. J.; Seltzer, M. M.; Greenberg, J. S.

2007-01-01

Background: Little is known about the mortality of individuals with Down syndrome who have lived at home with their families throughout their lives. The current study evaluates the predictors, causes and patterns of mortality among co-residing individuals in midlife with Down syndrome as compared with co-residing individuals with ID owing to other…

Mild to moderate cognitive impairment is a major risk factor for mortality and nursing home admission in the first year after hip fracture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is not well established if and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment predicts mortality and risk of nursing home admission after hip fracture. To investigate prospectively whether and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment, contributes to mortality and admission to nu...

Relation of aortic valve calcium detected by cardiac computed tomography to all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Blaha, Michael J; Budoff, Matthew J; Rivera, Juan J; Khan, Atif N; Santos, Raul D; Shaw, Leslee J; Raggi, Paolo; Berman, Daniel; Rumberger, John A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram

2010-12-15

Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 ± 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Mortality determinants and prediction of outcome in high risk newborns.

PubMed

Dalvi, R; Dalvi, B V; Birewar, N; Chari, G; Fernandez, A R

1990-06-01

The aim of this study was to determine independent patient-related predictors of mortality in high risk newborns admitted at our centre. The study population comprised 100 consecutive newborns each, from the premature unit (PU) and sick baby care unit (SBCU), respectively. Thirteen high risk factors (variables) for each of the two units, were entered into a multivariate regression analysis. Variables with independent predictive value for poor outcome (i.e., death) in PU were, weight less than 1 kg, hyaline membrane disease, neurologic problems, and intravenous therapy. High risk factors in SBCU included, blood gas abnormality, bleeding phenomena, recurrent convulsions, apnea, and congenital anomalies. Identification of these factors guided us in defining priority areas for improvement in our system of neonatal care. Also, based on these variables a simple predictive score for outcome was constructed. The prediction equation and the score were cross-validated by applying them to a 'test-set' of 100 newborns each for PU and SBCU. Results showed a comparable sensitivity, specificity and error rate.

The Aristotle score predicts mortality after surgery of patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants.

PubMed

Chang, Yun Hee; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Jeong Eun; Kim, Ji-yong; Youn, YoungAh; Lee, Eun-Jung; Moon, Sena; Lee, Ju Young; Sung, In Kyung

2013-09-01

Outcomes after surgical ligation of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in preterm infants are often complicated by prematurity associated comorbidities. The Aristotle comprehensive complexity score (ACCS) has been proposed as a useful tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The aims of this study were to define preoperative risk factors for mortality and to demonstrate the usefulness of ACCS to predict mortality after surgical ligation of PDA in the preterm. Included were 49 preterm babies (≤35 weeks of gestation) who had surgical ligation of PDA between May 2009 and July 2012. Median gestational age was 27.6 weeks (range, 23 to 35 weeks) and median birth weight was 1,040 g (range, 520 to 2,280 g). Median age at operation was 15 days (range, 4 to 44 days) and median weight was 1,120 g (range, 400 to 2,880 g). Initial oral ibuprofen was ineffective in 24 patients and contraindicated in 25. All surgical ligations were done at bedside in the neonatal intensive care unit. Preoperative clinical and laboratory profiles were reviewed and ACCS was derived. Eight of 49 patients (16.3%) died at a median of 14 days (range, 2 to 73 days) after PDA ligation. Patients who had contraindications for oral ibuprofen (odds ratio [OR] 8.94; p=0.049), coagulopathy (OR 12.13; p=0.025), renal dysfunction (OR 28.88; p=0.003), intraventricular hemorrhage greater than grade II or seizure (OR 34.00; p=0.002), and ACCS points (OR 29.594; p<0.05) were significantly associated with an increased risk for mortality. Among the risk factors, ACCS showed the largest area under curve (0.991) by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Optimal cutoff value of ACCS for mortality were 15 or greater, with sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 97.6%. The ACCS, especially for procedure-independent complexity factors, is a useful tool to predict mortality after ligation of PDA in preterm infants. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020.

PubMed

López-Abente, Gonzalo; García-Gómez, Montserrat; Menéndez-Navarro, Alfredo; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Ramis, Rebeca; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes, Marta; Ferreras, Eva; Jiménez-Muñoz, María; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2013-11-06

A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 in Spain. Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976-1980 to 1,249 in 2006-2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016-2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality amongst octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wilson, Iain; Paul Barrett, Michael; Sinha, Ashish; Chan, Shirley

2014-11-01

Elderly patients are often judged to be fit for emergency surgery based on age alone. This study identified risk factors predictive of in-hospital mortality amongst octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery. A retrospective review of octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery over 3 years was performed. Parametric survival analysis using Cox multivariate regression model was used to identify risk factors predictive of in-hospital mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated. Seventy-three patients with a median age of 84 years were identified. Twenty-eight (38%) patients died post-operatively. Multivariate analysis identified ASA grade (ASA 5 HR 23.4 95% CI 2.38-230, p = 0.007) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR 3.35 95% CI 1.15-9.69, p = 0.026) to be the only significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Identification of high risk surgical patients should be based on physiological fitness for surgery rather than chronological age. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The autophagy marker LC3 strongly predicts immediate mortality after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Wen; Lin, Chih-Che; Lee, Po-Huang; Lo, Gin-Ho; Hsieh, Pei-Min; Koh, Kah Wee; Lee, Chih-Yuan; Chen, Yao-Li; Dai, Chia-Yen; Huang, Jee-Fu; Chuang, Wang-Long; Chen, Yaw-Sen; Yu, Ming-Lung

2017-11-03

The remnant liver's ability to regenerate may affect post-hepatectomy immediate mortality. The promotion of autophagy post-hepatectomy could enhance liver regeneration and reduce mortality. This study aimed to identify predictive factors of immediate mortality after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 535 consecutive HCC patients who had undergone their first surgical resection in Taiwan were enrolled between 2010 and 2014. Clinicopathological data and immediate mortality, defined as all cause-mortality within three months after surgery, were analyzed. The expression of autophagy proteins (LC3, Beclin-1, and p62) in adjacent non-tumor tissues was scored by immunohistochemical staining. Approximately 5% of patients had immediate mortality after surgery. The absence of LC3, hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl), high alanine aminotransferase, and major liver surgery were significantly associated with immediate mortality in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that absence of LC3 (hazard ratio/95% confidence interval: 40.8/5.14-325) and hypoalbuminemia (2.88/1.11-7.52) were significantly associated with immediate mortality. The 3-month cumulative incidence of mortality was 12.1%, 13.0%, 21.4% and 0.4%, respectively, among patients with absence of LC3 expression, hypoalbuminemia, both, or neither of the two. In conclusion, the absence of LC3 expression in adjacent non-tumor tissues and hypoalbuminemia were strongly predictive of immediate mortality after resection for HCC.

Risk Factors for Postoperative Respiratory Mortality and Morbidity in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

PubMed Central

Rajaei, Samira; Dabbagh, Ali

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Nowadays, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is considered to be one of the most common surgical procedures. This procedure has been the main topic in many clinical research studies, which have assessed the effect of the procedure on patients’ outcomes. Like other surgical procedures, this procedure is also accompanied by a number of unwanted complications, including those of the respiratory system. Since the respiratory system plays an integral role in defining the clinical outcome of patients, improvements in studies that can assess and predict clinical outcomes of the respiratory system, assume greater importance. There are a number of predictive models which can assess patients in the preoperative period and introduce a number of risk factors, which could be considered as prognostic factors for patients undergoing CABG. The respiratory system is among the clinical systems that are assessed in many prediction scoring systems. This review assesses the main studies which have evaluated the possible risk factors for postoperative respiratory mortality and morbidity, in patients undergoing CABG. PMID:24223339

Herd factors associated with dairy cow mortality.

PubMed

McConnel, C; Lombard, J; Wagner, B; Kopral, C; Garry, F

2015-08-01

Summary studies of dairy cow removal indicate increasing levels of mortality over the past several decades. This poses a serious problem for the US dairy industry. The objective of this project was to evaluate associations between facilities, herd management practices, disease occurrence and death rates on US dairy operations through an analysis of the National Animal Health Monitoring System's Dairy 2007 survey. The survey included farms in 17 states that represented 79.5% of US dairy operations and 82.5% of the US dairy cow population. During the first phase of the study operations were randomly selected from a sampling list maintained by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Only farms that participated in phase I and had 30 or more dairy cows were eligible to participate in phase II. In total, 459 farms had complete data for all selected variables and were included in this analysis. Univariable associations between dairy cow mortality and 162 a priori identified operation-level management practices or characteristics were evaluated. Sixty of the 162 management factors explored in the univariate analysis met initial screening criteria and were further evaluated in a multivariable model exploring more complex relationships. The final weighted, negative binomial regression model included six variables. Based on the incidence rate ratio, this model predicted 32.0% less mortality for operations that vaccinated heifers for at least one of the following: bovine viral diarrhea, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, parainfluenza 3, bovine respiratory syncytial virus, Haemophilus somnus, leptospirosis, Salmonella, Escherichia coli or clostridia. The final multivariable model also predicted a 27.0% increase in mortality for operations from which a bulk tank milk sample tested ELISA positive for bovine leukosis virus. Additionally, an 18.0% higher mortality was predicted for operations that used necropsies to determine the cause of death for some proportion of dead dairy cows. The final model also predicted that increased proportions of dairy cows with clinical mastitis and infertility problems were associated with increased mortality. Finally, an increase in mortality was predicted to be associated with an increase in the proportion of lame or injured permanently removed dairy cows. In general terms, this model identified that mortality was associated with reproductive problems, non-infectious postpartum disease, infectious disease and infectious disease prevention, and information derived from postmortem evaluations. Ultimately, addressing excessive mortality levels requires a concerted effort that recognizes and appropriately manages the numerous and diverse underlying risks.

A biophysical basis for patchy mortality during heat waves.

PubMed

Mislan, K A S; Wethey, David S

2015-04-01

Extreme heat events cause patchy mortality in many habitats. We examine biophysical mechanisms responsible for patchy mortality in beds of the competitively dominant ecosystem engineer, the marine mussel Mytilus californianus, on the west coast of the United States. We used a biophysical model to predict daily fluctuations in body temperature at sites from southern California to Washington and used results of laboratory experiments on thermal tolerance to determine mortality rates from body temperature. In our model, we varied the rate of thermal conduction within mussel beds and found that this factor can account for large differences in body temperature and consequent mortality during heat waves. Mussel beds provide structural habitat for other species and increase local biodiversity, but, as sessile organisms, they are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. Identifying critical biophysical mechanisms related to mortality and ecological performance will improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on these vulnerable ecosystems.

Mortality-related Factors in Patients with Malignant Obstructive Jaundice.

PubMed

Kurniawan, Juferdy; Hasan, Irsan; Gani, Rino Alvani; Simadibrata, Marcellus

2016-10-01

to obtain survival rate and mortality-related factors of malignant obstructive jaundice patients. all medical records of obstructive jaundice inpatient at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta from January 2010 to December 2013 were reviewed retrospectively. The following factors were analyzed in terms of mortality: age, gender, sepsis, hypoalbumin, serum bilirubin level, serum CA 19-9 level, billiary drainage, non-ampulla Vateri carcinoma, and comorbid factors. total 181 out of 402 patients were enrolled in this study with male proportion was 58.6%, and patients aged 50 years or above was 57.5%. Multivariate analysis showed that only sepsis, unsuccessful or no prior biliary drainage and Charlson comorbid score ≥4 were independent predictors of mortality. Patients with significant prognostic factors had median survival 14 days compared with overall median survival 26 days. Score ≥2 identified as the highest prognostic score threshold with sensitivity 68%, specificity 75%, and AUC on ROC curve 0.769. sepsis, unsuccessful or no prior bilirary drainage, and Charlson comorbid score ≥4 are factors significantly associated with shortened survival in malignant obstructive jaundice patients. Prognostic score  ≥2 was determined to classify patients into high risk mortality group. Mortality of patients with those significant prognostic factors can be predicted in 76.9%.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia. To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). Method By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. Results After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Conclusion Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury. PMID:23351393

The Surgical Apgar score combined with Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment improves short- but not long-term outcome prediction in older patients undergoing abdominal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Kenig, Jakub; Mastalerz, Kinga; Mitus, Jerzy; Kapelanczyk, Agata

2018-05-30

Frailty increases the risk of poor surgical outcomes in the older population. Some measurable intraoperative factors may also influence the final outcome. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is a simple system predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity. However, the usefulness of the SAS remains unknown in fit and frail older patients. We aimed to test this, as well as investigate whether SAS can increase the predictive value of frailty in this group of patients. Consecutive patients ≥70 years of age, needing elective abdominal surgery for cancer were enrolled in a prospective study. Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment was used to determine frailty. Logistic regression was conducted investigating the association between the scores and 30-day postoperative outcomes and 1-year mortality. The study included 165 older patients with a median age of 77 (range 70-93) years. The prevalence of frailty was 38.2%. The most significant predictors of short-term morbidity and mortality were frailty [OR 6.2 (95%CI 2.9-13.4) and 14.9 (95%CI 5.9-38)] and the SAS [OR 12.5 (95%CI 2.8-45) and 29.5 (95%CI 6.3-125)]. At long-term follow-up frailty was the best predictor of mortality: OR 4.6 (95%CI 1.8-17.6). Frailty and the SAS, not age, were significant predictors of 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality both in fit and frail older patients undergoing elective abdominal cancer surgery. At 1-yearfollow-up frailty, not the SAS, was an independent risk factor of mortality. The combination of frailty and the SAS increased predictive accuracy and may be a target of care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does early functional outcome predict 1-year mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture?

PubMed

Dubljanin-Raspopović, Emilija; Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Marinković, Jelena; Nedeljković, Una; Bumbaširević, Marko

2013-08-01

Hip fractures in the elderly are followed by considerable risk of functional decline and mortality. The purposes of this study were to (1) explore predictive factors of functional level at discharge, (2) evaluate 1-year mortality after hip fracture compared with that of the general population, and (3) evaluate the affect of early functional outcome on 1-year mortality in patients operated on for hip fractures. A total of 228 consecutive patients (average age, 77.6 ± 7.4 years) with hip fractures who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in an open, prospective, observational cohort study. Functional level at discharge was measured with the motor Functional Independence Measure (FIM) score, which is the most widely accepted functional assessment measure in use in the rehabilitation community. Mortality rates in the study population were calculated in absolute numbers and as the standardized mortality ratio. Multivariate regression analysis was used to explore predictive factors for motor FIM score at discharge and for 1-year mortality adjusted for important baseline variables. Age, health status, cognitive level, preinjury functional level, and pressure sores after hip fracture surgery were independently related to lower discharge motor FIM scores. At 1-year followup, 57 patients (25%; 43 women and 14 men) had died. The 1-year hip fracture mortality rate compared with that of the general population was 31% in our population versus 7% for men and 23% in our population versus 5% for women 65 years or older. The 1-year standardized mortality rate was 341.3 (95% CI, 162.5-520.1) for men and 301.6 (95% CI, 212.4-391.8) for women, respectively. The all-cause mortality rate observed in this group was higher in all age groups and in both sexes when compared with the all-cause age-adjusted mortality of the general population. Motor FIM score at discharge was the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality after hip fracture. Functional level at discharge is the main determinant of long-term mortality in patients with hip fracture. Motor FIM score at discharge is a reliable predictor of mortality and can be recommended for clinical use.

Factors predicting mortality in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Compañy, L; Sáez, J; Martínez, J; Aparicio, J R; Laveda, R; Griñó, P; Pérez-Mateo, M

2003-01-01

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disorder in which ensuing serious complications may lead to a fatal outcome in patients. To describe a large series of patients with severe AP (SAP) who were admitted to our hospital and to identify factors predicting mortality. In a retrospective study, all patients with SAP diagnosed between February 1996 and October 2000 according to the Atlanta criteria were studied. Out of a total of 363 AP patients, 67 developed SAP. The mean age of the patients was 69; the commonest etiology was biliary; 55.2% developed necrosis; the commonest systemic complication was respiratory failure (44.7%), followed by acute renal failure (35.8%) and shock (20.9%). A total of 31.3% of the patients died. Factors significantly related to mortality were age, upper digestive tract bleeding, acute renal failure, respiratory failure and shock by univariate analysis. However, pseudocysts seemed to have a protective effect. By multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors were age, acute renal failure and respiratory failure. Patients with SAP mainly died due to systemic complications, especially acute renal failure and respiratory failure. Necrosis (in the absence or presence of infection) was not correlated with increased mortality. A pseudocyst was found to be a protective factor, probably because the definition itself led to the selection of patients who had survived multiorgan failure. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP

The linear relationship between the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 score and mortality in an Asian population of community-dwelling older persons.

PubMed

Wang, Jye; Lin, Wender; Chang, Ling-Hui

2018-01-01

The Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13) has been used as a screening tool to identify vulnerable community-dwelling older persons for more in-depth assessment and targeted interventions. Although many studies supported its use in different populations, few have addressed Asian populations. The optimal scaling system for the VES-13 in predicting health outcomes also has not been adequately tested. This study (1) assesses the applicability of the VES-13 to predict the mortality of community-dwelling older persons in Taiwan, (2) identifies the best scaling system for the VES-13 in predicting mortality using generalized additive models (GAMs), and (3) determines whether including covariates, such as socio-demographic factors and common geriatric syndromes, improves model fitting. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study analyzed the data of 2184 community-dwelling persons 65 years old or older from the 2003 wave of the national-wide Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging. Cox proportional hazards models and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were used. The VES-13 significantly predicted the mortality of Taiwan's community-dwelling elders. A one-point increase in the VES-13 score raised the risk of death by 26% (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.32). The hazard ratio of death increased linearly with each additional VES-13 score point, suggesting that using a continuous scale is appropriate. Inclusion of socio-demographic factors and geriatric syndromes improved the model-fitting. The VES-13 is appropriate for an Asian population. VES-13 scores linearly predict the mortality of this population. Adjusting the weighting of the physical activity items may improve the performance of the VES-13. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Mortality in the Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patient: Is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Enough?

PubMed

Annamalai, Alagappan; Harada, Megan Y; Chen, Melissa; Tran, Tram; Ko, Ara; Ley, Eric J; Nuno, Miriam; Klein, Andrew; Nissen, Nicholas; Noureddin, Mazen

2017-03-01

Critically ill cirrhotics require liver transplantation urgently, but are at high risk for perioperative mortality. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, recently updated to incorporate serum sodium, estimates survival probability in patients with cirrhosis, but needs additional evaluation in the critically ill. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of ICU admission MELD scores and identify clinical risk factors associated with increased mortality. This was a retrospective review of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU between January 2011 and December 2014. Patients who were discharged or underwent transplantation (survivors) were compared with those who died (nonsurvivors). Demographic characteristics, admission MELD scores, and clinical risk factors were recorded. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality, and measures of model performance were assessed to determine predictive accuracy. Of 276 patients who met inclusion criteria, 153 were considered survivors and 123 were nonsurvivors. Survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts had similar demographic characteristics. Nonsurvivors had increased MELD, gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, mechanical ventilation, encephalopathy, vasopressors, dialysis, renal replacement therapy, requirement of blood products, and ICU length of stay. The MELD demonstrated low predictive power (c-statistic 0.73). Multivariate analysis identified MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.05), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 4.55), vasopressors (AOR = 3.87), and continuous renal replacement therapy (AOR = 2.43) as independent predictors of mortality, with stronger predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.87). The MELD demonstrated relatively poor predictive accuracy in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and might not be the best indicator for prognosis in the ICU population. Prognostic accuracy is significantly improved when variables indicating organ support (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and continuous renal replacement therapy) are included in the model. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

2012-05-22

No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Jeon, Kyeongman; Yoo, Hongseok; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Park, Hye Yun; Koh, Won-Jung; Suh, Gee Young; Guallar, Eliseo

2017-10-01

Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration. The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6). FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Left ventricular ejection fraction to predict early mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Bosch, Xavier; Théroux, Pierre

2005-08-01

Improvement in risk stratification of patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a gateway to a more judicious treatment. This study examines whether the routine determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) adds significant prognostic information to currently recommended stratifiers. Several predictors of inhospital mortality were prospectively characterized in a registry study of 1104 consecutive patients, for whom an EF was determined, who were admitted for an ACS. Multiple regression models were constructed using currently recommended clinical, electrocardiographic, and blood marker stratifiers, and values of EF were incorporated into the models. Age, ST-segment shifts, elevation of cardiac markers, and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score all predicted mortality (P < .0001). Adding EF into the model improved the prediction of mortality (C statistic 0.73 vs 0.67). The odds of death increased by a factor of 1.042 for each 1% decrement in EF. By receiver operating curves, an EF cutoff of 48% provided the best predictive value. Mortality rates were 3.3 times higher within each TIMI risk score stratum in patients with an EF of 48% or lower as compared with those with higher. The TIMI risk score predicts inhospital mortality in a broad population of patients with ACS. The further consideration of EF adds significant prognostic information.

Growth differentiation factor-15 predicts mortality and morbidity after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Foley, Paul W X; Stegemann, Berthold; Ng, Kelvin; Ramachandran, Sud; Proudler, Anthony; Frenneaux, Michael P; Ng, Leong L; Leyva, Francisco

2009-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) predicts mortality and morbidity after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Growth differentiation factor-15, a transforming growth factor-beta-related cytokine which is up-regulated in cardiomyocytes via multiple stress pathways, predicts mortality in patients with heart failure treated pharmacologically. Growth differentiation factor-15 was measured before and 360 days (median) after implantation in 158 patients with heart failure [age 68 +/- 11 years (mean +/- SD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 23.1 +/- 9.8%, New York Class Association (NYHA) class III (n = 117) or IV (n = 41), and QRS 153.9 +/- 28.2 ms] undergoing CRT and followed up for a maximum of 5.4 years for events. In a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model with bootstrapping, adopting log GDF-15, log NT pro-BNP, LVEF, and NYHA class as independent variables, only log GDF-15 [hazard ratio (HR), 3.76; P = 0.0049] and log NT pro-BNP (HR, 2.12; P = 0.0171) remained in the final model. In the latter, the bias-corrected slope was 0.85, the optimism (O) was -0.06, and the c-statistic was 0.74, indicating excellent internal validity. In univariate analyses, log GDF-15 [HR, 5.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.31-11.9; likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) = 14.6; P < 0.0001], NT pro-BNP (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.55-5.26; LR chi(2) = 10.4; P = 0.0004), and the combination of both biomarkers (HR, 7.03; 95% CI, 2.91-17.5; LR chi(2) = 19.1; P < 0.0001) emerged as significant predictors. The biomarker combination was associated with the highest LR chi(2) for all endpoints. Pre-implant GDF-15 is a strong predictor of mortality and morbidity after CRT, independent of NT pro-BNP. The predictive value of these analytes is enhanced by combined measurement.

Chaparral Shrub Hydraulic Traits, Size, and Life History Types Relate to Species Mortality during California’s Historic Drought of 2014

PubMed Central

MacKinnon, Evan D.; Dario, Hannah L.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Davis, Stephen D.

2016-01-01

Chaparral is the most abundant vegetation type in California and current climate change models predict more frequent and severe droughts that could impact plant community structure. Understanding the factors related to species-specific drought mortality is essential to predict such changes. We predicted that life history type, hydraulic traits, and plant size would be related to the ability of species to survive drought. We evaluated the impact of these factors in a mature chaparral stand during the drought of 2014, which has been reported as the most severe in California in the last 1,200 years. We measured tissue water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, leaf specific conductivity, percentage loss in conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence for 11 species in February 2014, which was exceptionally dry following protracted drought. Mortality among the 11 dominant species ranged from 0 to 93%. Total stand density was reduced 63.4% and relative dominance of species shifted after the drought. Mortality was negatively correlated with water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence, but not with percent loss in hydraulic conductivity and leaf specific conductivity. The model that best explained mortality included species and plant size as main factors and indicated that larger plants had greater survival for 2 of the species. In general, species with greater resistance to water-stress induced cavitation showed greater mortality levels. Despite adult resprouters typically being more vulnerable to cavitation, results suggest that their more extensive root systems enable them to better access soil moisture and avoid harmful levels of dehydration. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that short-term high intensity droughts have the strongest effect on mature plants of shallow-rooted dehydration tolerant species, whereas deep-rooted dehydration avoiding species fare better in the short-term. Severe droughts can drive changes in chaparral structure as a result of the differential mortality among species. PMID:27391489

Chaparral Shrub Hydraulic Traits, Size, and Life History Types Relate to Species Mortality during California's Historic Drought of 2014.

PubMed

Venturas, Martin D; MacKinnon, Evan D; Dario, Hannah L; Jacobsen, Anna L; Pratt, R Brandon; Davis, Stephen D

2016-01-01

Chaparral is the most abundant vegetation type in California and current climate change models predict more frequent and severe droughts that could impact plant community structure. Understanding the factors related to species-specific drought mortality is essential to predict such changes. We predicted that life history type, hydraulic traits, and plant size would be related to the ability of species to survive drought. We evaluated the impact of these factors in a mature chaparral stand during the drought of 2014, which has been reported as the most severe in California in the last 1,200 years. We measured tissue water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, leaf specific conductivity, percentage loss in conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence for 11 species in February 2014, which was exceptionally dry following protracted drought. Mortality among the 11 dominant species ranged from 0 to 93%. Total stand density was reduced 63.4% and relative dominance of species shifted after the drought. Mortality was negatively correlated with water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence, but not with percent loss in hydraulic conductivity and leaf specific conductivity. The model that best explained mortality included species and plant size as main factors and indicated that larger plants had greater survival for 2 of the species. In general, species with greater resistance to water-stress induced cavitation showed greater mortality levels. Despite adult resprouters typically being more vulnerable to cavitation, results suggest that their more extensive root systems enable them to better access soil moisture and avoid harmful levels of dehydration. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that short-term high intensity droughts have the strongest effect on mature plants of shallow-rooted dehydration tolerant species, whereas deep-rooted dehydration avoiding species fare better in the short-term. Severe droughts can drive changes in chaparral structure as a result of the differential mortality among species.

Nucleated red blood cells as predictors of mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS): an observational study.

PubMed

Menk, Mario; Giebelhäuser, Lena; Vorderwülbecke, Gerald; Gassner, Martina; Graw, Jan A; Weiss, Björn; Zimmermann, Mathias; Wernecke, Klaus-D; Weber-Carstens, Steffen

2018-03-27

Nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) in critically ill patients are associated with increased mortality and poor outcome. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of NRBCs in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This observational study was conducted at an ARDS referral center and included patients from 2007 to 2014. Daily NRBC counts were assessed and the predictive validity of NRBCs on mortality was statistically evaluated. A cutoff for prediction of mortality based on NRBCs was evaluated using ROC analysis and specified according to Youden's method. Multivariate nonparametric analysis for longitudinal data was applied to prove for differences between groups over the whole time course. Independent predictors of mortality were identified with multiple logistic and Cox' regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier estimations visualized the survival; the corresponding curves were tested for differences with the log-rank test. A total of 404 critically ill ARDS patients were analyzed. NRBCs were found in 75.5% of the patients, which was associated with longer length of ICU stay [22 (11; 39) vs. 14 (7; 26) days; p < 0.05] and higher mortality rates (50.8 vs. 27.3%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis with mortality as response showed NRBC positivity per se to be an independent risk factor for mortality in ARDS with a doubled risk for ICU death (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.16-3.55; p < 0.05). Also, NRBC value at ICU admission was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.09-9.73, p = 0.035). A cutoff level of 220 NRBC/µl was associated with a more than tripled risk of ICU death (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.93-5.35; p < 0.0001). ARDS patients below this threshold level had a significant survival advantage (median survival 85 days vs. 29 days; log rank p < 0.001). Presence of a severe ARDS was identified as independent risk factor for the occurrence of NRBCs > 220/µl (OR 1.81; 95% CI 1.1-2.97; p < 0.05). NRBCs may predict mortality in ARDS with high prognostic power. The presence of NRBCs in the blood might be regarded as a marker of disease severity indicating a higher risk of ICU death.

Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

PubMed

Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

2012-03-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Regional mortality by socioeconomic factors in Slovakia: a comparison of 15 years of changes.

PubMed

Rosicova, Katarina; Bosakova, Lucia; Madarasova Geckova, Andrea; Rosic, Martin; Andrejkovic, Marek; Žežula, Ivan; Groothoff, Johan W; van Dijk, Jitse P

2016-07-19

Like most Central European countries Slovakia has experienced a period of socioeconomic changes and at the same time a decline in the mortality rate. Therefore, the aim is to study socioeconomic factors that changed over time and simultaneously contributed to regional differences in mortality. The associations between selected socioeconomic indicators and the standardised mortality rate in the population aged 20-64 years in the districts of the Slovak Republic in the periods 1997-1998 and 2012-2013 were analysed using linear regression models. A higher proportion of inhabitants in material need, and among males also lower income, significantly contributed to higher standardised mortality in both periods. The unemployment rate did not contribute to this prediction. Between the two periods no significant changes in regional mortality differences by the selected socioeconomic factors were found. Despite the fact that economic growth combined with investments of European structural funds contributed to the improvement of the socioeconomic situation in many districts of Slovakia, there are still districts which remain "poor" and which maintain regional mortality differences.

Mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians and associated factors.

PubMed

Hyde, Zoë; Smith, Kate; Flicker, Leon; Atkinson, David; Almeida, Osvaldo P; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Dwyer, Anna; LoGiudice, Dina

2018-01-01

We aimed to describe mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians using electronic record linkage. Between 2004 and 2006, 363 Aboriginal people living in remote Western Australia (WA) completed a questionnaire assessing medical history and behavioural risk factors. We obtained mortality records for the cohort from the WA Data Linkage System and compared them to data for the general population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality over a 9-year follow-up period. The leading causes of mortality were diabetes, renal failure, and ischaemic heart disease. Diabetes and renal failure accounted for 28% of all deaths. This differed from both the Australian population as a whole, and the general Indigenous Australian population. The presence of chronic disease did not predict mortality, nor did behaviours such as smoking. Only age, male sex, poor mobility, and cognitive impairment were risk factors. To reduce premature mortality, public health practitioners should prioritise the prevention and treatment of diabetes and renal disease in Aboriginal people in remote WA. This will require a sustained and holistic approach.

Mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians and associated factors

PubMed Central

Hyde, Zoë; Smith, Kate; Flicker, Leon; Atkinson, David; Almeida, Osvaldo P.; Lautenschlager, Nicola T.; Dwyer, Anna

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians using electronic record linkage. Methods Between 2004 and 2006, 363 Aboriginal people living in remote Western Australia (WA) completed a questionnaire assessing medical history and behavioural risk factors. We obtained mortality records for the cohort from the WA Data Linkage System and compared them to data for the general population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality over a 9-year follow-up period. Results The leading causes of mortality were diabetes, renal failure, and ischaemic heart disease. Diabetes and renal failure accounted for 28% of all deaths. This differed from both the Australian population as a whole, and the general Indigenous Australian population. The presence of chronic disease did not predict mortality, nor did behaviours such as smoking. Only age, male sex, poor mobility, and cognitive impairment were risk factors. Conclusions To reduce premature mortality, public health practitioners should prioritise the prevention and treatment of diabetes and renal disease in Aboriginal people in remote WA. This will require a sustained and holistic approach. PMID:29621272

Tree mortality risk of oak due to gypsy moth

Treesearch

K.W. Gottschalk; J.J. Colbert; D.L. Feicht

1998-01-01

We present prediction models for estimating tree mortality resulting from gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, defoliation in mixed oak, Quercus sp., forests. These models differ from previous work by including defoliation as a factor in the analysis. Defoliation intensity, initial tree crown condition (crown vigour), crown position, and...

Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990.

PubMed

Pick, J B; Butler, E W

1998-01-01

This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.

Predictive value of the APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and GCS scoring systems in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska, Iwona; Bernas, Szymon; Łojko, Piotr; Piechota, Anna; Piechota, Mariusz

2016-01-01

Scoring systems in critical care patients are essential for predicting of the patient outcome and evaluating the therapy. In this study, we determined the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scoring systems in the prediction of mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe purulent bacterial meningitis. We retrospectively analysed data from 98 adult patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis who were admitted to the single ICU between March 2006 and September 2015. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis: APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and GCS scores, and the lengths of ICU stay and hospital stay. The independent risk factors of patient death in multivariate analysis were the SAPS II score, the length of ICU stay and the length of hospital stay. In the prediction of mortality according to the area under the curve, the SAPS II score had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE II, GCS and SOFA scores. For the prediction of mortality in a patient with severe purulent bacterial meningitis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy.

Use of the Hardman index in predicting mortality in endovascular repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Conroy, Daniel M; Altaf, Nishath; Goode, Steve D; Braithwaite, Bruce D; MacSweeney, Shane T; Richards, Toby

2011-12-01

The Hardman index is a predictor of 30-day mortality after open ruptured abdominal aneurysm repair through the use of preoperative patient factors. The aim of this study was to assess the Hardman index in patients undergoing endovascular repair of ruptured aortic aneurysms. A retrospective analysis of 95 patients undergoing emergency endovascular repairs of computed tomography-confirmed ruptured aneurysms from 1994 to 2008 in a university hospital was performed. All relevant patient variables, calculations of the Hardman index, and the incidence of 30-day mortality were collected in these patients. Correlation of the relationship between each variable and the overall score with the incidence of 30-day mortality was undertaken. The 24-hour mortality was 16% and 30-day mortality 36%. Increasing scores on the Hardman index showed an increasing mortality rate. Thirty-day mortality in patients with a score of 0 to 2 was 30.5%, and in those with a score of ≥3 was 69.2% (P = .01, risk ratio = 2.26, 95% confidence interval = 0.98 to 5.17). This is lower than predicted in both patient groups based on Hardman index score. Loss of consciousness was the only statistically significant independent predictor of 30-day mortality with a risk ratio of 3.16 (95% confidence interval = 2.00-4.97, P < .001). These data suggest that the Hardman index can predict an increased risk of 30-day mortality from endovascular repairs of ruptured aortic aneurysms. However, mortality from endovascular repair is much lower than would be predicted in open repair and it therefore cannot be used clinically as a tool for exclusion from intervention.

Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Hua, May S; Ma, Xiaoyue; Li, Guohua; Wunsch, Hannah

2018-04-30

To examine the ability of existing triggers for intensive care unit (ICU) palliative care consultation to predict 6-month mortality, and derive new triggers for consultation based on risk factors for 6-month mortality. Retrospective cohort study of NY state residents who received intensive care, 2008-2013. We examined sensitivity and specificity of existing triggers for predicting 6-month mortality and used logistic regression to generate patient subgroups at high-risk for 6-month mortality as potential novel triggers for ICU palliative care consultation. Of 1,019,849 patients, 195,847 (19.2%) died within 6 months of admission. Existing triggers were specific but not sensitive for predicting 6-month mortality, (sensitivity 0.3%-11.1%, specificity 96.5-99.9% for individual triggers). Using logistic regression, patient subgroups with the highest predicted probability of 6-month mortality were older patients admitted with sepsis (age 70-79 probability 49.7%, [49.5-50.0]) or cancer (non-metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 51.5%, [51.1-51.9]; metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 60.3%, [59.9-60.6]). Sensitivity and specificity of novel triggers ranged from 0.05% to 9.2% and 98.6% to 99.9%, respectively. Existing triggers for palliative care consultation are specific, but insensitive for 6-month mortality. Using a data-driven approach to derive novel triggers may identify subgroups of patients at high-risk of 6-month mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypothermia predicts mortality in critically ill elderly patients with sepsis.

PubMed

Tiruvoipati, Ravindranath; Ong, Kevin; Gangopadhyay, Himangsu; Arora, Subhash; Carney, Ian; Botha, John

2010-09-27

Advanced age is one of the factors that increase mortality in intensive care. Sepsis and multi-organ failure are likely to further increase mortality in elderly patients.We compared the characteristics and outcomes of septic elderly patients (> 65 years) with younger patients (≤ 65 years) and identified factors during the first 24 hours of presentation that could predict mortality in elderly patients. This study was conducted in a Level III intensive care unit with a case mix of medical and surgical patients excluding cardiac and neurosurgical patients.We performed a retrospective review of all septic patients admitted to our ICU between July 2004 and May 2007. In addition to demographics and co-morbidities, physiological and laboratory variables were analysed to identify early predictors of mortality in elderly patients with sepsis. Of 175 patients admitted with sepsis, 108 were older than 65 years. Elderly patients differed from younger patients with regard to sex, temperature (37.2°C VS 37.8°C p < 0.01), heart rate, systolic blood pressure, pH, HCO3, potassium, urea, creatinine, APACHE III and SAPS II. The ICU and hospital mortality was significantly higher in elderly patients (10.6% Vs 23.14% (p = 0.04) and 19.4 Vs 35.1 (p = 0.02) respectively). Elderly patients who died in hospital had a significant difference in pH, HCO3, mean blood pressure, potassium, albumin, organs failed, lactate, APACHE III and SAPS II compared to the elderly patients who survived while the mean age and co-morbidities were comparable. Logistic regression analysis identified temperature (OR [per degree centigrade decrease] 0.51; 95% CI 0.306- 0.854; p = 0.010) and SAPS II (OR [per point increase]: 1.12; 95% CI 1.016-1.235; p = 0.02) during the first 24 hours of admission to independently predict increased hospital mortality in elderly patients. The mortality in elderly patients with sepsis is higher than the younger patients. Temperature (hypothermia) and SAPS II scores during the first 24 hours of presentation independently predict hospital mortality.

Epidemiology and Long-term Clinical and Biologic Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Community-Dwelling Older Americans

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Karina; Loehr, Laura; Folsom, Aaron R.; Newman, Anne B.; Weissfeld, Lisa A.; Wunderink, Richard G.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; London, Stephanie J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Bauer, Doug C.; Angus, Derek C.

2013-01-01

Background: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals. Methods: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization. Results: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5% and 31.5%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults < 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5% and 25.7% in those < 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance. Conclusions: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model. PMID:23744106

Prediction of One-Year Survival in High-Risk Patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes: Results from the SYNERGY Trial

PubMed Central

Yang, Qinghong; Pieper, Karen S.; Antman, Elliott M.; White, Harvey D.; Goodman, Shaun G.; Cohen, Marc; Kleiman, Neal S.; Langer, Anatoly; Aylward, Philip E.; Col, Jacques J.; Reist, Craig; Ferguson, James J.; Califf, Robert M.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND Despite advances in pharmacologic therapy and invasive management strategies for patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE ACS), these patients still suffer substantial morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to analyze independent predictors of 1-year mortality in patients with high-risk NSTE ACS. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 9,978 patients were assigned to receive enoxaparin or unfractionated heparin (UFH) in this prospective, randomized, open-label, international trial. MEASUREMENTS Vital status at 1 year was collected. Univariable and multivariable predictors of 1-year mortality were identified. Three different multivariable regression models were constructed to identify: (1) predictors of 30-day mortality; (2) predictors of 1-year mortality; (3) predictors of 1-year mortality in 30-day survivors. The last model is the focus of this paper. RESULTS Overall, 9,922 (99.4%) of patients had 1-year follow-up. Of the 56 patients (37 UFH-assigned and 19 enoxaparin-assigned) without 1-year data, 11 patients were excluded because of withdrawal of consent, and 45 could not be located. One-year mortality was 7.5% (7.7% enoxaparin-assigned patients; 7.3% UFH-assigned patients; P = 0.4). In patients surviving 30 days after enrollment, independent predictors of 1-year mortality included factors known at baseline such as increased age, male sex, decreased weight, having ever smoked, decreased creatinine clearance, ST-segment depression, history of diabetes, history of angina, congestive heart failure, coronary artery bypass grafting, increased heart rate, rales, increased hematocrit, lowered hemoglobin, and higher platelet count. Factors predictive of mortality during the hospitalization and 30-day follow-up period were decreased weight at 30 days from baseline, atrial fibrillation, decreased nadir platelet, no use of beta-blockers and statins up to 30 days, and not receiving an intervention (c-index = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS Easily determined baseline clinical characteristics can be used to predict 1-year mortality with reasonable discriminative power. These models corroborate prior work in a contemporary aggressively managed population. A model to predict 1-year mortality in patients surviving at least 30 days may be quite helpful to healthcare providers in setting expectations and goals with patients after ACS. PMID:18196350

Triglyceride-to-high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio is an index of heart disease mortality and of incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in men.

PubMed

Vega, Gloria Lena; Barlow, Carolyn E; Grundy, Scott M; Leonard, David; DeFina, Laura F

2014-02-01

High triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) impart risk for heart disease. This study examines the relationships of TG/HDL-C ratio to mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease (CHD), or cardiovascular disease (CVD). Survival analysis was done in 39,447 men grouped by TG/HDL-C ratio cut point of 3.5 and for metabolic syndrome. National Death Index International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10) codes were used for CVD and CHD deaths occurring from 1970 to 2008. Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) according to ratio was estimated in 22,215 men. Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio and cross-product of TG and fasting blood glucose (TyG index) were used in analysis. Men were followed up for 581,194 person-years. Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio predicted CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality after adjustment for established risk factors and non-HDL-C. Mortality rates were higher in individuals with a high ratio than in those with a low ratio. Fifty-five percent of men had metabolic syndrome that was also predictive of CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality. Annual incidence of DM was 2 times higher in men with high TG/HDL-C ratio than in those with a low ratio. Individuals with high TG/HDL-C ratio had a higher incidence of DM than those with a low ratio. The TyG index was not equally predictive of causes of mortality to TG/HDL-C, but both were equally predictive of diabetes incidence. Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio predicts CHD and CVD mortality as well as or better than do metabolic syndrome in men. Also, a high ratio predisposes to DM. The TyG index does not predict CHD, CVD, or all-cause mortality equally well, but like TG/HDL-C ratio, it predicts DM incidence.

Mortality prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia: PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is the answer.

PubMed

Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin

2017-05-01

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO 2 /FiO 2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count <0.8 × 10 9 /L) were independent risk factors for mortality, with OR value of 22.483 (95% confidence interval 4.927-102.598) and 5.853 (95% confidence interval 1.887-18.152), respectively. PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count performed well for mortality prediction with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.945, which was significantly better than current CAP severity scores of PSI, CURB-65 and confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 years for mortality prediction (P < 0.001). The scores or indices for ICU admission prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia confirmed a similar pattern and PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor of hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia in predicting mortality and ICU admission. When PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250 or peripheral blood lymphocyte count <0.8 × 10 9 /L, the clinician should pay great attention to the possibility of severe influenza pneumonia. © 2015 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigation of Characteristics and Predictive Factors Affecting Mortality from Aluminum Phosphide Poisoning, Iran.

PubMed

Navabi, Seyed Mohammad Navabi; Navabi, Seyed Jafar; Aghaei, Abbas; Shaahmadi, Zahra; Heydari, Ruhollah

2018-05-27

Aluminum phosphide (ALP) or rice tablet is one of the most effective rodenticides used for the protection of grain storages from animals and rodents. ALP poisoning annually leads to mortality in human beings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and predictive factors affecting mortality from ALP poisoning. This study evaluated patients with ALP poisoning referred to Imam Khomeini hospital in Kermanshah from 2014 to 2015. There are several data gathered from patient such as age, sex, number of consumed tablets, the number of attempts to commit suicide, elapsed time from consuming till treatment, blood pressure, PH, HCO3 and PCO2. Survivors (recovery) and non-survivors (death) from ALP poisoning are also evaluated in this study. Univariate logistic regression and multivariate analysis have been applied for data analysis. In this study, 48 patients were male and 29 patients were female, respectively (total 77 patient). The average age of survivors and non-survivors were 28.69 and 31.34 years, respectively. All cases (100%) of ALP poisoning were tried to commit suicide. The results showed that the main predictive variables of mortality from ALP poisoning were blood pressure, PH and elapsed time from consuming till treatment. The prognosis of death for patients with ALP poisoning can be determined by awareness of some of the main characteristics or factors such as blood pressure, PH and elapsed time from consuming till treatment. This can give a possibility for healthcare groups to consider more measures in patients with ALP poisoning.

Novel Risk Engine for Diabetes Progression and Mortality in USA: Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO).

PubMed

Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian; Stoecker, Charles; Liu, Shuqian; Shi, Lizheng

2018-05-03

There is an urgent need to update diabetes prediction, which has relied on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) that dates back to 1970 s' European populations. The objective of this study was to develop a risk engine with multiple risk equations using a recent patient cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus reflective of the US population. A total of 17 risk equations for predicting diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular events, hypoglycemia, mortality, and progression of diabetes risk factors were estimated using the data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial (n = 10,251). Internal and external validation processes were used to assess performance of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) risk engine. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of risk factors on mortality at the population level. The BRAVO risk engine added several risk factors including severe hypoglycemia and common US racial/ethnicity categories compared with the UKPDS risk engine. The BRAVO risk engine also modeled mortality escalation associated with intensive glycemic control (i.e., glycosylated hemoglobin < 6.5%). External validation showed a good prediction power on 28 endpoints observed from other clinical trials (slope = 1.071, R 2  = 0.86). The BRAVO risk engine for the US diabetes cohort provides an alternative to the UKPDS risk engine. It can be applied to assist clinical and policy decision making such as cost-effective resource allocation in USA.

Causes of Mortality After Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy and Androgen Deprivation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tendulkar, Rahul D., E-mail: tendulr@ccf.org; Hunter, Grant K.; Reddy, Chandana A.

Purpose: Men with high-risk prostate cancer have other competing causes of mortality; however, current risk stratification schema do not account for comorbidities. We aim to identify the causes of death and factors predictive for mortality in this population. Methods and Materials: A total of 660 patients with high-risk prostate cancer were treated with definitive high-dose external beam radiation therapy (≥74 Gy) and androgen deprivation (AD) between 1996 and 2009 at a single institution. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to determine factors predictive of survival. Results: The median radiation dose was 78 Gy, median duration of AD was 6more » months, and median follow-up was 74 months. The 10-year overall survival (OS) was 60.6%. Prostate cancer was the leading single cause of death, with 10-year mortality of 14.1% (95% CI 10.7-17.6), compared with other cancers (8.4%, 95% CI 5.7-11.1), cardiovascular disease (7.3%, 95% CI 4.7-9.9), and all other causes (10.4%, 95% CI 7.2-13.6). On multivariate analysis, older age (HR 1.55, P=.002) and Charlson comorbidity index score (CS) ≥1 (HR 2.20, P<.0001) were significant factors predictive of OS, whereas Gleason score, T stage, prostate-specific antigen, duration of AD, radiation dose, smoking history, and body mass index were not. Men younger than 70 years of age with CS = 0 were more likely to die of prostate cancer than any other cause, whereas older men or those with CS ≥1 more commonly suffered non-prostate cancer death. The cumulative incidences of prostate cancer-specific mortality were similar regardless of age or comorbidities (P=.60). Conclusions: Men with high-risk prostate cancer are more likely to die of causes other than prostate cancer, except for the subgroup of men younger than 70 years of age without comorbidities. Only older age and presence of comorbidities significantly predicted for OS, whereas prostate cancer- and treatment-related factors did not.« less

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Related Mortality- Lessons Learned from the In-Silico Approach: A European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Data Mining Study.

PubMed

Shouval, Roni; Labopin, Myriam; Unger, Ron; Giebel, Sebastian; Ciceri, Fabio; Schmid, Christoph; Esteve, Jordi; Baron, Frederic; Gorin, Norbert Claude; Savani, Bipin; Shimoni, Avichai; Mohty, Mohamad; Nagler, Arnon

2016-01-01

Models for prediction of allogeneic hematopoietic stem transplantation (HSCT) related mortality partially account for transplant risk. Improving predictive accuracy requires understating of prediction limiting factors, such as the statistical methodology used, number and quality of features collected, or simply the population size. Using an in-silico approach (i.e., iterative computerized simulations), based on machine learning (ML) algorithms, we set out to analyze these factors. A cohort of 25,923 adult acute leukemia patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) registry was analyzed. Predictive objective was non-relapse mortality (NRM) 100 days following HSCT. Thousands of prediction models were developed under varying conditions: increasing sample size, specific subpopulations and an increasing number of variables, which were selected and ranked by separate feature selection algorithms. Depending on the algorithm, predictive performance plateaued on a population size of 6,611-8,814 patients, reaching a maximal area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. AUCs' of models developed on specific subpopulation ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 for patients in second complete remission and receiving reduced intensity conditioning, respectively. Only 3-5 variables were necessary to achieve near maximal AUCs. The top 3 ranking variables, shared by all algorithms were disease stage, donor type, and conditioning regimen. Our findings empirically demonstrate that with regards to NRM prediction, few variables "carry the weight" and that traditional HSCT data has been "worn out". "Breaking through" the predictive boundaries will likely require additional types of inputs.

[Comparison of predictive factors related to the mortality and rebleeding caused by variceal bleeding: Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Rockall score].

PubMed

Lee, Ja Young; Lee, Jin Heon; Kim, Soo Jin; Choi, Dae Rho; Kim, Kyung Ho; Kim, Yong Bum; Kim, Hak Yang; Yoo, Jae Young

2002-12-01

The first episode of variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh(CP) scoring system has been widely accepted for prognostic assessment. Recently, MELD has been known to be better than the CP scoring system for predicting mortality in patients with end-stage liver diseases. The Rockall risk scoring system was developed to predict the outcome of upper GI bleeding including variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of first variceal bleeding and the predictability of each scoring system. We evaluated the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding rate, and 1-year mortality rate of all the 136 patients with acute variceal bleeding without previous episode of hemorrhage between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000. The CP score, MELD score, and Rockall score were estimated and analyzed. Among 136 patients, 35 patients with hepatoma and 8 patients with follow-up loss were excluded. Six-week mortality rate, 1-year mortality rate, and rebleeding rate of first variceal bleeding were 24.7%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, respectively. The c-statistics of CP, MELD, and Rockall score for predicting 6-week mortality rate were 0.809 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.720-0.898), 0.804 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.696-0.911), 0.787 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.683-0.890), respectively. For 1-year mortality rate, c-statistics were 0.765 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.665-0.865), 0.780 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.676-0.883), 0.730 (p<0.01, 95% CI, 0.627-0.834), respectively. The CP, MELD, and Rockall scores were reliable measures of mortality risk in patients with first variceal bleeding. The CP classification is useful in its easy applicability.

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

2014-01-01

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

Independent predictors of morbidity and mortality in blunt colon trauma.

PubMed

Ricciardi, R; Paterson, C A; Islam, S; Sweeney, W B; Baker, S P; Counihan, T C

2004-01-01

We sought to determine the impact of (1) grade of the colon injury, (2) the formation of an ostomy, and (3) associated injuries on outcomes such as morbidity and mortality after blunt colon injuries. We retrospectively reviewed 16,814 cases of blunt abdominal trauma. Patients with colonic injuries were selected and charts reviewed for demographic, clinical, and outcomes data. Injuries were grouped by the Colon Injury Scale (grades I-V). Independent risk factors of morbidity included spine and lung injuries, as well as increased age. A higher grade of colon injury trended toward a significant association with intra-abdominal complications. Independent risk factors of mortality included liver, heart, and lung injuries, as well as intracerebral blood and female gender. The grade of colon injury, the formation of an ostomy, and management of the colon trauma did not independently predict increased intra-abdominal complications, morbidity, or mortality. These results indicate that patients afflicted with blunt colon trauma experience a high rate of morbidity and mortality from associated injuries and or increased age. Treatment regimens directed at these factors will be most helpful in reducing the high morbidity and mortality after blunt colon trauma. Factors such as ostomy formation and management strategy are not associated with increased morbidity or mortality after blunt colon trauma.

Short- and long-term major cardiovascular adverse events in carotid artery interventions: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Lung; Mao, Chun-Tai; Chen, Dong-Yi; Hsieh, I-Chang; Wen, Ming-Shien; Chen, Tien-Hsing

2015-01-01

Carotid artery stenosis is one of the leading causes of ischemic stroke. Carotid artery stenting has become well-established as an effective treatment option for carotid artery stenosis. For this study, we aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of carotid stenting in a population-based large cohort of patients by analyzing the Taiwan National Healthcare Insurance (NHI) database. 2,849 patients who received carotid artery stents in the NHI database from 2004 to 2010 were identified. We analyzed the risk factors of outcomes including major adverse cardiovascular events including death, acute myocardial infarction, and cerebral vascular accidents at 30 days, 1 year, and overall period and further evaluated cause of death after carotid artery stenting. The periprocedural stroke rate was 2.7% and the recurrent stroke rate for the overall follow-up period was 20.3%. Male, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure were significant risk factors for overall recurrent stroke (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.35, p = 0.006; HR = 1.23, p = 0.014; HR = 1.61, p < 0.001, respectively). The periprocedural acute myocardial infarction rate was 0.3%. Age and Diabetes mellitus were the significant factors to predict periprocedural myocardial infarction (HR = 3.06, p = 0.019; HR = 1.68, p < 0.001, respectively). Periprocedural and overall mortality rates were 1.9% and 17.3%, respectively. The most significant periprocedural mortality risk factor was acute renal failure. Age, diabetes mellitus, acute or chronic renal failure, heart failure, liver disease, and malignancy were factors correlated to the overall period mortality. Periprocedural acute renal failure significantly increased the mortality rate and the number of major adverse cardiovascular events, and the predict power persisted more than one year after the procedure. Age and diabetes mellitus were significant risk factors to predict acute myocardial infarction after carotid artery stenting.

Common and gender specific factors associated with one-year mortality in nursing home residents.

PubMed

Kiely, Dan K; Flacker, Jonathan M

2002-01-01

To identify common and gender-specific factors associated with mortality in two distinct nursing home (NH) populations: newly admitted (NA), and long-stay (LS) residents. A retrospective cohort study. NH facilities in the state of New York. A total of 59,080 NA female and 28,080 NA male NH residents, and 24,260 LS female and 8,928 LS male NH residents evaluated between June 1994 and December 1997 who were at least 65 years of age. Minimum Data Set information including measures of health, functional, cognitive, psychological, and social status. Multivariate proportional hazards regression results indicate that in NA residents, use of feeding tubes, bowel incontinence, and refuses fluids were associated with mortality in women only, whereas fever was associated with mortality in men only. Cancer and congestive heart failure (CHF) were more strongly associated with mortality in women than men. In LS residents, deterioration in communication, refuses fluids, use of indwelling catheters, and deterioration in cognition were associated with mortality in women but not men. Bedfast most of the time, use of new medications, and a balance problem were associated with mortality in men but not women. Shortness-of-breath was more strongly associated with mortality in women than men. In both NA and LS residents, although men and women share many common factors associated with mortality, each gender has some unique factors associated with mortality. Furthermore, the strength of some common factors is significantly different across genders. These readily available data could be useful in making medical decisions and advance directive planning, and in the development of quality improvement initiatives and mortality prediction models.

Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

PubMed Central

Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

Substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, and mortality after release from prison: a nationwide longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Chang, Zheng; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Summary Background High mortality rates have been reported in people released from prison compared with the general population. However, few studies have investigated potential risk factors associated with these high rates, especially psychiatric determinants. We aimed to investigate the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality in people released from prison in Sweden. Methods We studied all people who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden for risks of all-cause and external-cause (accidents, suicide, homicide) mortality after prison release. We obtained data for substance use disorders and other psychiatric disorders, and criminological and sociodemographic factors from population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox regression, and then used them to calculate population attributable fractions for post-release mortality. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared individuals in the study with siblings who were also released from prison, but without psychiatric disorders. We tested whether any independent risk factors improved the prediction of mortality beyond age, sex, and criminal history. Findings We identified 47 326 individuals who were imprisoned. During a median follow-up time of 5·1 years (IQR 2·6–7·5), we recorded 2874 (6%) deaths after release from prison. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 1205 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Substance use disorders significantly increased the rate of all-cause mortality (alcohol use: adjusted HR 1·62, 95% CI 1·48–1·77; drug use: 1·67, 1·53–1·83), and the association was independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and familial factors. We identified no strong evidence that other psychiatric disorders increased mortality after we controlled for potential confounders. In people released from prison, 925 (34%) of all-cause deaths in men and 85 (50%) in women were potentially attributable to substance use disorders. Substance use disorders were also an independent determinant of external-cause mortality, with population attributable fraction estimates at 42% in men and 70% in women. Substance use disorders significantly improved the prediction of external-cause mortality, in addition to sociodemographic and criminological factors. Interpretation Interventions to address substance use disorders could substantially decrease the burden of excess mortality in people released from prison, but might need to be provided beyond the immediate period after release. Funding Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare. PMID:26360286

Fever, thrombocytopenia, and AKI-A profile of malaria, dengue, and leptospirosis with renal failure in a South Indian tertiary-care hospital.

PubMed

Prabhu, Mayoor V; S, Arun; Ramesh, Venkat

In the tropics, the triad of fever, thrombocytopenia, and AKI portends a grim prognosis with high mortality and a severe strain on already-stretched resources. Malaria, dengue, and leptospirosis account for most cases. We undertook a review of cases to determine factors accounting for adverse prognosis. All patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with a history of fever, thrombocytopenia, and renal failure were included in the study. Patients were followed until discharge or death, and end points looked at were 1-week and 30-day mortality, and renal function upon discharge. Parameters like liver function test (LFT), renal function, and platelet count upon discharge were also documented. A total of 43 patients was included in the study. Mean age was 42.5 years with 86% males. Mean APACHE and SOFA scores on admission were 23.89 and 15.42, respectively. Mean admission platelet counts were 41,000. Mean serum creatinine was 4.1, and bilirubin was 9.94. A platelet count of < 34,000, serum creatinine of > 4, albumin of > 2.3, SOFA score of > 20, and APACHE score of > 32.2 were significantly predictive of 1 week mortality. Need for mechanical ventilation, oliguria on admission, and need for dialysis all were highly predictive of 30-day mortality. In addition, a serum bicarbonate of < 12, INR of > 1.5, hemoglobin of < 9.5 were highly predictive of higher 30 day mortality. Overall, 1-week mortality was 16.3%, of which 48% was accounted for by patients with leptospirosis. Factors like low platelet count, oliguria, need for dialysis, high APACHE and SOFA scores on admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and low serum albumin portend a grave prognosis. There is need for randomized control trials (RCT) to further determine adverse prognostic factors in this subsect of patients.

Total insulinlike growth factor 1 and insulinlike growth factor binding protein levels, functional status, and mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Kaplan, Robert C; McGinn, Aileen P; Pollak, Michael N; Kuller, Lewis; Strickler, Howard D; Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, XiaoNan; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Newman, Anne B; Psaty, Bruce M

2008-04-01

To assess the association between total insulinlike growth factor (IGF)-1, IGF binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), and IGFBP-3 levels and functioning and mortality in older adults. Cohort study. One thousand one hundred twenty-two individuals aged 65 and older without prior cardiovascular disease events participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Baseline fasting plasma levels of IGF-1, IGFBP-1, and IGFBP-3 (defined as tertiles, T1-T3) were examined in relationship to handgrip strength, time to walk 15 feet, development of new difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs), and mortality. Higher IGFBP-1 predicted worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)<.01) and slower walking speed (P-trend(T1-T3)=.03), lower IGF-1 had a borderline significant association with worse handgrip strength (P-trend(T1-T3)=.06), and better grip strength was observed in the middle IGFBP-3 tertile than in the low or high tertiles (P=.03). Adjusted for age, sex, and race, high IGFBP-1 predicted greater mortality (P-trend(T1-T3)<.001, hazard ratio (HR)(T3vsT1)=1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.15-1.90); this association was borderline significant after additional confounder adjustment (P-trend(T1-T3)=.05, HR(T3vsT1)=1.35, 95% CI=0.98-1.87). High IGFBP-1 was associated with greater risk of incident ADL difficulties after adjustment for age, sex, race, and other confounders (P-trend(T1-T3)=.04, HR(T3vsT1)=1.40, CI=1.01-1.94). Neither IGF-1 nor IGFBP-3 level predicted mortality or incident ADL difficulties. In adults aged 65 and older, high IGFBP-1 levels were associated with greater risk of mortality and poorer functional ability, whereas IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 had little association with these outcomes.

Red blood cell distribution width as a risk factor for inhospital mortality in obstetric patients admitted to an intensive care unit: a single centre retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chu, Yufeng; Yuan, Zhongshang; Meng, Mei; Zhou, Haiyan; Wang, Chunting; Yang, Gong; Ren, Hongsheng

2017-06-21

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been shown to predict mortality in critically ill patients. To our knowledge, whether or not RDW is associated with clinical outcomes of obstetric patients requiring critical care has not been evaluated. This was a single centre, retrospective, observational study of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients were excluded from the analysis if they had known haematological diseases or recently underwent blood transfusion. Patients who died or were discharged from the ICU within 24 hours of admission were also excluded. Patient clinical characteristics at ICU admission were retrieved from the medical charts. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate OR and 95% CI for inhospital mortality associated with RDW. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to examine the performance of RDW, alone or in combination with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (APACHE II), in predicting inhospital mortality. A total of 376 patients were included in the study. The hospital mortality rate was 5.32%. A significant association was found between baseline RDW levels and hospital mortality (OR per per cent increase in RDW, 1.31; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.49). Further adjustment for haematocrit and other potential confounders did not appreciably alter the result (p<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for inhospital mortality based on RDW was similar to that based on the APACHE II score (0.752 vs 0.766). A combination of these two factors resulted in substantial improvement in risk prediction, with an AUC value of 0.872 (p<0.001). The study suggests that RDW is an independent predictor for inhospital mortality among ICU admitted obstetric patients. Combining RDW and APACHE II score could significantly improve inhospital prognostic prediction among these critically ill obstetric patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk Factors and Mortality Associated with Default from Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment

PubMed Central

Franke, Molly F.; Appleton, Sasha C.; Bayona, Jaime; Arteaga, Fernando; Palacios, Eda; Llaro, Karim; Shin, Sonya S.; Becerra, Mercedes C.; Murray, Megan B.; Mitnick, Carole D.

2008-01-01

Background Completing treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) may be more challenging than completing first-line TB therapy, especially in resource poor settings. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy; (2) quantify mortality among patients who default; and (3) identify risk factors for death following default. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review to identify risk factors for default and conducted home visits to assess mortality among patients who defaulted. Results 67 of 671 patients (10.0%) defaulted. The median time to default was 438 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 152−710), and 40.3% of patients had culture-positive sputum at the time of default. Substance use (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.56, 5.62], p-value [p]=0.001), substandard housing conditions (HR: 1.83, CI: [1.07, 3.11], p=0.03), later year of enrollment (HR: 1.62, CI: [1.09, 2.41], p=0.02) and health district (p=0.02) predicted default in a multivariable analysis. Severe adverse events did not predict default. Of 47 (70.1%) patients who defaulted and were successfully traced, 25 (53.2%) had died. Poor bacteriologic response, less than a year of treatment at default, low education level, and diagnosis with a psychiatric disorder significantly predicted death after default in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions The proportion of patients who defaulted from MDR TB treatment was relatively low. The large proportion of patients who defaulted while culture-positive underscores the public health importance of minimizing default. Prognosis for patients who defaulted was poor. Interventions aimed at preventing default may reduce TB-related mortality. PMID:18462099

Identifying neonates at a very high risk for mortality among children with congenital diaphragmatic hernia managed with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

PubMed

Haricharan, Ramanath N; Barnhart, Douglas C; Cheng, Hong; Delzell, Elizabeth

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify mortality risk factors in children with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and generate a prediction score for those at a very high risk for mortality. Data on first ECMO runs of all neonates with CDH, between January 1997 and June 2007, were obtained from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry (N = 2678). The data were split into "training data (TD)" (n = 2006) and "validation data" (n = 672). The primary outcome analyzed was in-hospital mortality. Modified Poisson regression was used for analyses. Overall in-hospital mortality among 2678 neonates (males, 57%; median age at ECMO, 1 day) was 52%. The univariate and multivariable analyses were performed using TD. An empirically weighted mortality prediction score was generated with possible scores ranging from 0 to 35 points. Of 69 who scored 14 or higher in the TD, 62 died (positive predictive value [PPV], 90%), of 37 with 15 or higher, 35 died (PPV, 95%), of 23 with 16 or higher, 22 died (PPV, 96%). A cut-off point of 15 was chosen and was tested using the separate validation dataset. In validation data, the cut-off point 15 had a PPV of 96% (23 died of 24). Scoring 15 or higher on the prediction score identifies neonates with CDH at a very high risk for mortality among those managed with ECMO and could be used in surgical decision making and counseling.

Impact of parental socioeconomic factors on childhood cancer mortality: a population-based registry study.

PubMed

Tolkkinen, Anniina; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura; Taskinen, Mervi; Rantanen, Matti; Malila, Nea; Pitkäniemi, Janne

2018-06-04

Parental socioeconomic status has been proposed to have an influence on childhood cancer mortality even in high-income countries. Our study investigated the influence of parental socioeconomic factors on childhood cancer mortality. We identified 4437 patients diagnosed with cancer under the age of 20 from 1990 to 2009 and their parents from the Finnish cancer and central population registers. Information on death from primary cancer during five-year follow-up and parental socioeconomic factors was obtained from Statistics Finland. Poisson regression modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for factors related to cause-specific mortality and recursive tree based survival analysis to identify important risk factors and interactions. Mortality was lower in the highest quartile of combined parental disposable income (HR 0.68, CI 95% 0.52-0.89) compared to the lowest quartile. In the most recent diagnostic period from 2000 to 2009, highest attained education of either parent being post-secondary predicted lower mortality (HR 0.73, CI 95% 0.60-0.88) compared to parents who had attained primary or lower education. Despite high quality public health care and comprehensive social security, both high parental income and education were associated with lower mortality after childhood cancer. Lower health literacy and financial pressures limiting treatment adherence may explain higher mortality in children with less educated parents and parents with lower income. Motivation and support during treatment and follow-up period is needed concerning the families of these patients.

Causes and predictive factors of mortality in a cohort of patients with hepatitis C virus-related cryoglobulinemic vasculitis treated with antiviral therapy.

PubMed

Landau, Dan-Avi; Scerra, Samy; Sene, Damien; Resche-Rigon, Mathieu; Saadoun, David; Cacoub, Patrice

2010-03-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated mixed cryoglobulinemia (MC) vasculitis is an autoimmune disorder with significant morbidity and mortality. Renal involvement was associated with an increased mortality, and was the most common cause of death; these data were obtained before effective antiviral treatment was available. We studied causes of death and predictive factors in patients with HCV-associated MC vasculitis treated with antivirals. Case histories of 85 patients with HCV-associated MC vasculitis treated in a single center between 1990 and 2006 were retrospectively reviewed. Prognostic factors affecting mortality were studied by comparing 23 patients who died with 62 survivors, using the Cox model regression analysis. The most common cause of death was infection, accounting for 34.7%, followed by endstage liver disease in 30.4% (including 4 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma), and cardiovascular disease in 17.4% of patients. Endstage renal disease accounted for only 8.7% of deaths, as did central nervous system vasculitis and nonhepatic malignancy. Increased mortality was strongly associated with immunosuppressive treatment [hazard ratio (HR) 6.51, 95% CI 2.75-15.37], cutaneous ulcers (HR 5.37, 95% CI 1.79-16.14), and renal insufficiency (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.37-7.72). A 2 log10 decrease in HCV viral load at month 3 after starting antiviral treatment was associated with decreased mortality (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.95). While renal involvement is still associated with poorer prognosis, infectious processes are now the most common cause of death in HCV cryoglobulinemia vasculitis. Immunosuppressive treatment is associated with an increased risk of death, independently from disease severity. Response to antiviral treatment is associated with significantly reduced mortality risk.

The prognostic value of dobutamine stress echocardiography amongst British Indian Asian and Afro-Caribbean patients: a comparison with European white patients.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Jamie M; Rossato, Claire; Gargallo-Fernandez, Paula; Araco, Marco; Giannoglou, Dimitrios; Sharma, Sanjay; Sharma, Rajan

2015-08-06

The incidence of cardiovascular disease is considerably disparate among different racial and ethnic populations. While dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) has been shown to be useful in Caucasian patients, its role among ethnic minority groups remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic importance of DSE in three ethnic groups in the UK. DSE was performed on 6231 consecutive patients. After exclusions, 5329 patients formed the study (2676 [50.2%] Indian Asian, 2219 [41.6%] European white and 434 [8.1%] Afro-Caribbean). Study outcome measures were non-fatal cardiac events (NFCE) and all-cause mortality. There were 849 (15.9%) NFCE and 1365 (25.6%) deaths over a median follow-up period of 4.6 years. In total 1174 (22%) patients had inducible myocardial ischaemia during DSE, 859 (16.1%) had fixed wall motion abnormalities and 3645 (68.4%) patients had a normal study. Ethnicity did not predict events. Among the three ethnic groups, ischaemia on DSE was associated with 2 to 2.5 times the risk of non-fatal cardiac events and 1.2 to 1.4 times the risk of all-cause mortality. Peak wall motion score index was the strongest independent predictor of non-fatal cardiac events and all-cause mortality in all groups. The C statistic for the prediction of NFCE and all-cause mortality were significantly higher when DSE parameters were added to the standard risk factors for all ethnic groups. DSE is a strong predictor of NFCE and all-cause mortality and provides predictive information beyond that provided by standard risk factors in three major racial and ethnic groups. No major differences among racial and ethnic groups in the predictive value of DSE was detected.

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Plasma granulocyte colony-stimulating factor and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor levels in critical illness including sepsis and septic shock: relation to disease severity, multiple organ dysfunction, and mortality.

PubMed

Presneill, J J; Waring, P M; Layton, J E; Maher, D W; Cebon, J; Harley, N S; Wilson, J W; Cade, J F

2000-07-01

To define the circulating levels of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) during critical illness and to determine their relationship to the severity of illness as measured by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, the development of multiple organ dysfunction, or mortality. Prospective cohort study. University hospital intensive care unit. A total of 82 critically ill adult patients in four clinically defined groups, namely septic shock (n = 29), sepsis without shock (n = 17), shock without sepsis (n = 22), and nonseptic, nonshock controls (n = 14). None. During day 1 of septic shock, peak plasma levels of G-CSF, interleukin (IL)-6, and leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF), but not GM-CSF, were greater than in sepsis or shock alone (p < .001), and were correlated among themselves (rs = 0.44-0.77; p < .02) and with the APACHE II score (rs = 0.25-0.40; p = .03 to .18). G-CSF, IL-6, and UF, and sepsis, shock, septic shock, and APACHE II scores were strongly associated with organ dysfunction or 5-day mortality by univariate analysis. However, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only septic shock remained significantly associated with organ dysfunction and only APACHE II scores and shock with 5-day mortality. Similarly, peak G-CSF, IL-6, and LIF were poorly predictive of 30-day mortality. Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-6, and LIF are greatly elevated in critical illness, including septic shock, and are correlated with one another and with the severity of illness. However, they are not independently predictive of mortality, or the development of multiple organ dysfunction. GM-CSF was rarely elevated, suggesting different roles for G-CSF and GM-CSF in human septic shock.

Use of admission serum lactate and sodium levels to predict mortality in necrotizing soft-tissue infections.

PubMed

Yaghoubian, Arezou; de Virgilio, Christian; Dauphine, Christine; Lewis, Roger J; Lin, Matthew

2007-09-01

Simple admission laboratory values can be used to classify patients with necrotizing soft-tissue infection (NSTI) into high and low mortality risk groups. Chart review. Public teaching hospital. All patients with NSTI from 1997 through 2006. Variables analyzed included medical history, admission vital signs, laboratory values, and microbiologic findings. Data analyses included univariate and classification and regression tree analyses. Mortality. One hundred twenty-four patients were identified with NSTI. The overall mortality rate was 21 of 124 (17%). On univariate analysis, factors associated with mortality included a history of cancer (P = .03), intravenous drug abuse (P < .001), low systolic blood pressure on admission (P = .03), base deficit (P = .009), and elevated white blood cell count (P = .06). On exploratory classification and regression tree analysis, admission serum lactate and sodium levels were predictors of mortality, with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 28%, positive predictive value of 23%, and negative predictive value of 100%. A serum lactate level greater than or equal to 54.1 mg/dL (6 mmol/L) alone was associated with a 32% mortality, whereas a serum sodium level greater than or equal to 135 mEq/L combined with a lactate level less than 54.1 mg/dL was associated with a mortality of 0%. Mortality for NSTIs remains high. A simple model, using admission serum lactate and serum sodium levels, may help identify patients at greatest risk for death.

Survivor aspen: Can we predict who will get voted off the island?

Treesearch

F. A. Baker; J. D. Shaw

2008-01-01

During the past few years, aspen have been dying at rates that appear to exceed normal rates. We believe that this mortality should not be unexpected, given the severe drought of the past 10 years. We examine the literature and FIA data and identify several factors that indicate such mortality should be expected.

Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

2017-01-11

Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model, individuals identified by only the enhanced model were older, had higher educational status, higher income, and higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus and cancer. Control beliefs were significantly associated with risk for 4-year mortality; accounting for these factors improved identification of low-risk individuals. More work is needed to determine how assessment of control beliefs could enable targeting of clinical interventions to support at-risk older adults.

Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers.

PubMed

van Solinge, Hanna; Henkens, Kène

2018-06-01

This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

A novel nomogram accurately quantifies the risk of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Kiran, Ravi P; Attaluri, Vikram; Hammel, Jeff; Church, James

2013-05-01

The ability to accurately predict postoperative mortality is expected to improve preoperative decisions for elderly patients considered for colorectal surgery. Patients undergoing colorectal surgery were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2007) and stratified as elderly (>70 years) and nonelderly (<70 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative risk factors and 30-day mortality and morbidity were analyzed on 70% of the population. A nomogram for mortality was created and tested on the remaining 30%. Of 30,900 colorectal cases, 10,750 were elderly (>70 years). Mortality increased steadily with age (0.5% every 5 years) and at a faster rate (1.2% every 5 years) after 70 years, which defined "elderly" in this study. Elderly (mean age: 78.4 years) and nonelderly patients (52.8 years) had mortality of 7.6% versus 2.0% and a morbidity of 32.8% versus 25.7%, respectively. Elderly patients had greater preoperative comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10.5% vs 3.8%), diabetes (18.7% vs 11.1%), and renal insufficiency (1.7% vs 1.3%). A multivariate model for 30-day mortality and nomogram were created. Increasing age was associated with mortality [age >70 years: odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.4); >85 years: OR = 4.3 (95% CI: 3.3-5.5)]. The nomogram accurately predicted mortality, including very high-risk (>50% mortality) with a concordant index for this model of 0.89. Colorectal surgery in elderly patients is associated with significantly higher mortality. This novel nomogram that predicts postoperative mortality may facilitate preoperative treatment decisions.

[Predictive factors of all-cause mortality in patients attending the medical emergency unit of Kinshasa University Hospital].

PubMed

Mbutiwi Ikwa Ndol, F; Dramaix-Wilmet, M; Meert, P; Lepira Bompeka, F; Nseka Mangani, N; Malengreau, M; Makaula, P

2014-02-01

The management of medical emergencies is poorly organized in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, the mortality of patients attending the medical emergency unit of Kinshasa University Hospital is relatively high, with death of patients occurring rather early. To date, factors associated with this mortality have been poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify predictive factors of all-cause mortality in patients admitted to the medical emergency unit of the Kinshasa University Hospital. Analytical prospective study of all patients admitted from 15th January to 15th February 2011 in the emergency unit of the internal medicine department of Kinshasa University Hospital (427 patients). Among these patients, 13 were dead at arrival and were excluded from this study. The 414 patients included were followed until discharge from the hospital. Demographic, clinical, biological, diagnostic, therapeutical and evolutive data were collected. Four multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors associated with mortality. Patients' median age was 40 years (interquartile range, 28-58 years), 54.5% were male, and 15.9% had a life-threatening pathological condition on admission. The overall mortality was 12.3%. According to multivariate analyses, transfer from other health care structures (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.7-7.1), Glasgow Coma Scale score less than 14 on admission (OR: 11.1; 95% CI: 4.7-26.3), high creatinine level (OR: 4.2; 95% CI: 1.8-9.7), presence of cardiovascular (OR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5-5.7), renal (OR: 7.4; 95% CI: 3.2-17.3), hematologic and/or respiratory (OR: 6.1; 95% CI: 1.7-21.4) diseases, presence of sepsis and/or meningitis and encephalitis (OR: 5.2; 95% CI: 1.6-17.0) were significantly associated with a high risk of death. However, the Glasgow Coma Scale score less than 14 on admission and renal disease were the only predictive factors of mortality remaining after including demographic, clinical, diagnostic and therapeutical variables in the logistic regression model. Our study showed that transfer from another health care structure, low Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission, high creatinine level, cardiovascular, renal, hematologic and/or respiratory diseases, sepsis and/or meningitis and encephalitis were associated with an increased risk of death in Kinshasa University Hospital patients admitted in the medical emergency unit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

PubMed

Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

2011-01-01

The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mortality factors in geriatric blunt trauma patients.

PubMed

Knudson, M M; Lieberman, J; Morris, J A; Cushing, B M; Stubbs, H A

1994-04-01

To examine various clinical factors for their ability to predict mortality in geriatric patients following blunt trauma. In this retrospective study, trauma registries and medical records from three trauma centers were reviewed for patients 65 years and older who had sustained blunt trauma. The following variables were extracted and examined independently and in combination for their ability to predict death: age, gender, mechanism of injury, admission blood pressure, and Glasgow Coma Scale score, respiratory status, Trauma Score, Revised Trauma Score, and Injury Severity Score. Three urban trauma centers. Geriatric trauma patients entering three trauma centers (Stanford [Calif] University Hospital, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tenn, and Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems, Baltimore) following blunt trauma during a 7-year period (1982 to 1989). The Injury Severity Score was the single variable that correlated most significantly with mortality. Mortality rates were higher for men than for women and were significantly higher in patients 75 years and older. Admission variables associated with the highest relative risks of death included a Trauma Score less than 7; hypotension (systolic blood pressure, < 90 mm Hg); hypoventilation (respiratory rate, < 10 breaths per minute); or a Glasgow Coma Scale score equal to 3. Admission variables in geriatric trauma patients can be used to predict outcome and may also be useful in making decisions about triage, quality assurance, and use of intensive care unit beds.

Which Biomarker is the Best for Predicting Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: NT-ProBNP, Cardiac TnT, or hsCRP?

PubMed Central

Oh, Hyung Jung; Lee, Mi Jung; Kwon, Young Eun; Park, Kyoung Sook; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook

2015-01-01

Abstract Although numerous previous studies have explored various biomarkers for their ability to predict mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, these studies have been limited by retrospective analyses, mostly prevalent dialysis patients, and the measurement of only 1 or 2 biomarkers. This prospective study was aimed to evaluate the association between 3 biomarkers and mortality in incident 335 ESRD patients starting continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) in Korea. According to the baseline NT-proBNP, cTnT, and hsCRP levels, the patients were stratified into tertiles, and cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortalities were compared. Additionally, time-dependent ROC curves were constructed, and the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the models with various biomarkers were calculated. We found the upper tertile of NT-proBNP was significantly associated with increased risk of both CV and all-cause mortalities. However, the upper tertile of hsCRP was significantly related only to the high risk of all-cause mortality even after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell counts. Moreover, NT-proBNP had the highest predictive power for CV mortality, whereas hsCRP was the best prognostic marker for all-cause mortality among these biomarkers. In conclusions, NT-proBNP is a more significant prognostic factor for CV mortality than cTnT and hsCRP, whereas hsCRP is a more significant predictor than NT-proBNP and cTnT for all-cause mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients. PMID:26554763

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

PubMed

Marra, Annachiara; Pandharipande, Pratik P; Shotwell, Matthew S; Chandrasekhar, Rameela; Girard, Timothy D; Shintani, Ayumi K; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karl G M; Dittus, Robert S; Ely, E Wesley; Vasilevskis, Eduard E

2018-03-24

The goal of this study was to develop and validate a dynamic risk model to predict daily changes in acute brain dysfunction (ie, delirium and coma), discharge, and mortality in ICU patients. Using data from a multicenter prospective ICU cohort, a daily acute brain dysfunction-prediction model (ABD-pm) was developed by using multinomial logistic regression that estimated 15 transition probabilities (from one of three brain function states [normal, delirious, or comatose] to one of five possible outcomes [normal, delirious, comatose, ICU discharge, or died]) using baseline and daily risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed by using predictive characteristics such as negative predictive value (NPV). Calibration was assessed by plotting empirical vs model-estimated probabilities. Internal validation was performed by using a bootstrap procedure. Data were analyzed from 810 patients (6,711 daily transitions). The ABD-pm included individual risk factors: mental status, age, preexisting cognitive impairment, baseline and daily severity of illness, and daily administration of sedatives. The model yielded very high NPVs for "next day" delirium (NPV: 0.823), coma (NPV: 0.892), normal cognitive state (NPV: 0.875), ICU discharge (NPV: 0.905), and mortality (NPV: 0.981). The model demonstrated outstanding calibration when predicting the total number of patients expected to be in any given state across predicted risk. We developed and internally validated a dynamic risk model that predicts the daily risk for one of three cognitive states, ICU discharge, or mortality. The ABD-pm may be useful for predicting the proportion of patients for each outcome state across entire ICU populations to guide quality, safety, and care delivery activities. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complications and risk factors for mortality in penetrating abdominal firearm injuries: analysis of 120 cases

PubMed Central

Iflazoglu, Nidal; Ureyen, Orhan; Oner, Osman Z; Tusat, Mustafa; Akcal, Mehmet A

2015-01-01

Due to the high kinetic energy, of bullets and explosive gun particles, their paths through the abdomen (permanent cavity effect), and the blast effect (temporary cavity effect), firearm injuries (FAI) can produce damage not only in the organ they enter, but in the surrounding tissues as well. Since they change route after entering the body they may cause organ damage in locations other than those at the path of entry. For example, as a result of the crushing onto bone tissues, bullet particles or broken bone fragments may cause further damage outside of the path of travel, For these reasons it is very difficult to predict the possible complications from the size of the actual injury in patients with penetrating abdominal firearm injuries. The factors affecting the mortality and morbidity from firearm injuries have been evaluated in various studies. Insufficient blood transfusion, long duration of time until presenting to a hospital and the presence of colon injuries are common factors that cause the high complication rates and mortality. A total of 120 cases injured in the civil war at Turkey’s southern neighbouring countries were admitted to our hospital and evaluated in terms of: development of complications and factors affecting mortality; age, gender, time of presentation to the hospital, number of injured organs, the type of injuring weapon, the entrance site of the bullet, the presence of accompanying chest trauma, the amount of administered blood, the penetrating abdominal trauma index (PATI) and the injury severity score (ISS) scores were determined and evaluated retrospectively. The most significant factors for the development of complications and mortality include: accompanying clinical shock, high number of injured organs, numerous blood transfusions administered and accompanying thoracic trauma. It has also been observed that the PATI and ISS scoring systems can be used in predicting the complication and mortality rates in firearm injuries. Consequently, reducing the mortality and complication rates from firearm injuries is still a serious problem. Despite all of these efforts, there is still a need to determine the optimum treatment strategy to achieve this end goal. PMID:26131219

Reducing mortality risk by targeting specific air pollution sources: Suva, Fiji.

PubMed

Isley, C F; Nelson, P F; Taylor, M P; Stelcer, E; Atanacio, A J; Cohen, D D; Mani, F S; Maata, M

2018-01-15

Health implications of air pollution vary dependent upon pollutant sources. This work determines the value, in terms of reduced mortality, of reducing ambient particulate matter (PM 2.5 : effective aerodynamic diameter 2.5μm or less) concentration due to different emission sources. Suva, a Pacific Island city with substantial input from combustion sources, is used as a case-study. Elemental concentration was determined, by ion beam analysis, for PM 2.5 samples from Suva, spanning one year. Sources of PM 2.5 have been quantified by positive matrix factorisation. A review of recent literature has been carried out to delineate the mortality risk associated with these sources. Risk factors have then been applied for Suva, to calculate the possible mortality reduction that may be achieved through reduction in pollutant levels. Higher risk ratios for black carbon and sulphur resulted in mortality predictions for PM 2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, road vehicle emissions and waste burning that surpass predictions for these sources based on health risk of PM 2.5 mass alone. Predicted mortality for Suva from fossil fuel smoke exceeds the national toll from road accidents in Fiji. The greatest benefit for Suva, in terms of reduced mortality, is likely to be accomplished by reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion (diesel), vehicles and waste burning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The importance of waist circumference in the definition of metabolic syndrome: prospective analyses of mortality in men.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Janssen, Ian; Ross, Robert; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP), revised NCEP (NCEP-R), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) metabolic syndrome criteria for mortality risk, and to examine the effects of waist circumference on mortality within the context of these criteria. The sample included 20,789 white, non-Hispanic men 20-83 years of age from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The main outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over 11.4 years of follow-up. The proportions of men with the metabolic syndrome were 19.7, 27, and 30% at baseline, respectively, according to NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF criteria. A total of 632 deaths (213 CVD) occurred. The relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality were 1.36 (1.14-1.62), 1.31 (1.11-1.54), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for the NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF definitions, respectively. The corresponding RRs for CVD mortality were 1.79 (1.35-2.37), 1.67 (1.27-2.19), and 1.67 (1.27-2.20). Additionally, there was a significant trend for a higher risk of CVD mortality across waist circumference categories (<94, 94-102, and >102 cm) among men with at least two additional metabolic syndrome risk factors (P = 0.01). The prediction of mortality with IDF and NCEP metabolic syndrome criteria was comparable in men. Waist circumference is a valuable component of metabolic syndrome; however, the IDF requirement of an elevated waist circumference warrants caution given that a large proportion of men with normal waist circumference have multiple risk factors and an increased risk of mortality.

Impact of Renal Impairment on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Liver Transplantation for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

VanWagner, Lisa B.; Lapin, Brittany; Skaro, Anton I.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Rinella, Mary E.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity after liver transplantation, but its impact on CVD mortality is unknown. We sought to assess the impact of NASH on CVD mortality after liver transplantation and to predict which NASH recipients are at highest risk of a CVD-related death following a liver transplant. METHODS Using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database we examined associations between NASH and post liver transplant CVD mortality, defined as primary cause of death from thromboembolism, arrhythmia, heart failure, myocardial infarction, or stroke. A physician panel reviewed cause of death. RESULTS Of 48,360 liver transplants (2/2002–12/2011), 5,057 (10.5%) were performed for NASH cirrhosis. NASH recipients were more likely to be older, female, obese, diabetic, and have history of renal failure or prior CVD versus non-NASH (p<0.001 for all). Although there was no difference in overall all-cause mortality (log-rank p=0.96), both early (30-day) and long-term CVD-specific mortality was increased among NASH recipients (Odds ratio=1.30, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.66; Hazard ratio=1.42, 95% CI: 1.07–1.41, respectively). These associations were no longer significant after adjustment for pre-transplant diabetes, renal impairment or CVD. A risk score comprising age ≥ 55, male sex, diabetes and renal impairment was developed for prediction of post liver transplant CVD mortality (c-statistic 0.60). CONCLUSION NASH recipients have an increased risk of CVD mortality after liver transplantation explained by a high prevalence of co-morbid cardiometabolic risk factors that in aggregate identify those at highest risk of post-transplant CVD mortality. PMID:25977117

Use of the Animal Trauma Triage Score, RibScore, Modified RibScore and Other Clinical Factors for Prognostication in Canine Rib Fractures.

PubMed

McCarthy, Daniel; Bacek, Lenore; Kim, Kyoung; Miller, George; Gaillard, Philippe; Kuo, Kendon

2018-06-11

 To characterize the clinical features among dogs sustaining rib fractures and to determine if age, type and severity of injury, entry blood lactate, trauma score and rib fracture score were associated with outcome.  A retrospective study was performed to include dogs that were presented with rib fractures. Risk factors evaluation included breed, age, body weight, diagnosis, presence of a flail chest, bandage use, puncture wound presence, rib fracture number, location of the fracture along the thoracic wall, hospital stay length, body weight, other fractures, pleural effusion, pulmonary contusions, pneumothorax and occurrence of an anaesthetic event. A retrospective calculation of an animal trauma triage (ATT) score, RibScore and Modified RibScore was assigned.  Forty-one medical records were collected. Motor vehicular trauma represented 56% of the rib fracture aetiology, 41% of patients sustained dog bites and one case was of an unknown aetiology. Significant correlations with risk factors were found only with the ATT score. All patients that died had an ATT score ≥ 5. The ATT score correlated positively with mortality ( p  < 0.05) with an ATT score ≥ 7 was 88% sensitive and 81% specific for predicting mortality. A 1-point increase in ATT score corresponded to 2.1 times decreased likelihood of survival. Mean hospital stay was 3 days longer for dog bite cases.  There was no increased mortality rate in canine patients that presented with the suspected risk factors. The only risk factor that predicted mortality was the ATT score. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Death after discharge: predictors of mortality in older brain-injured patients.

PubMed

Peck, Kimberly A; Calvo, Richard Y; Sise, C Beth; Johnson, Jeffrey; Yen, Jessica W; Sise, Michael J; Dunne, Casey E; Badiee, Jayraan; Shackford, Steven R; Lobatz, Michael A

2014-12-01

Older patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) may be at high risk of death after hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to characterize long-term mortality of older TBI patients who survived to discharge. We hypothesized that predictors of postdischarge mortality differed from those of inpatient mortality. A retrospective cohort study was performed on TBI patients older than 55 years admitted to our Level I trauma center between July 1, 2006, and December 31, 2011. Postdischarge deaths were identified by matching patient data with local vital records up to December 31, 2011, when data collection was terminated (censoring). Patients were categorized by age, comorbidities, history of preinjury anticoagulant/prescription antiplatelet agent therapy, injury severity indices, initial TBI type, prehospital living status, discharge location, and discharge condition. The effect of risk factors on postdischarge mortality was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards modeling. Of 353 patients, 322 (91.2%) survived to discharge. Postdischarge mortality was 19.8% (n = 63) for the study period. Of the postdischarge deaths, 54.0% died within 6 months of discharge, and 68.3% died within 1 year. Median days to death after discharge or censoring were 149 and 410, respectively. Factors associated with death after discharge included age, preinjury anticoagulant use, higher number of Charlson comorbidities, discharge to a long-term care facility, and severe disability. Factors related to injury severity (i.e., Injury Severity Score [ISS], initial Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score) and preinjury prescription antiplatelet agent use, previously found to predict inpatient death, did not predict postdischarge mortality. Older TBI patients who survive to discharge have a significant risk of death within 1 year. Predictors of postdischarge mortality and inpatient death differ. Death after discharge is largely a function of overall health status. Monitoring health status and continued aggressive management of comorbidities after discharge may be essential in determining long-term outcomes. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Pediatric trauma BIG score: predicting mortality in children after military and civilian trauma.

PubMed

Borgman, Matthew A; Maegele, Marc; Wade, Charles E; Blackbourne, Lorne H; Spinella, Philip C

2011-04-01

To develop a validated mortality prediction score for children with traumatic injuries. We identified all children (<18 years of age) in the US military established Joint Theater Trauma Registry from 2002 to 2009 who were admitted to combat-support hospitals with traumatic injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. We identified factors associated with mortality using univariate and then multivariate regression modeling. The developed mortality prediction score was then validated on a data set of pediatric patients (≤ 18 years of age) from the German Trauma Registry, 2002-2007. Admission base deficit, international normalized ratio, and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with mortality in 707 patients from the derivation set and 1101 patients in the validation set. These variables were combined into the pediatric "BIG" score (base deficit + [2.5 × international normalized ratio] + [15 - Glasgow Coma Scale), which were each calculated to have an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.95) and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.87-0.92) on the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The pediatric trauma BIG score is a simple method that can be performed rapidly on admission to evaluate severity of illness and predict mortality in children with traumatic injuries. The score has been shown to be accurate in both penetrating-injury and blunt-injury populations and may have significant utility in comparing severity of injury in future pediatric trauma research and quality-assurance studies. In addition, this score may be used to determine inclusion criteria on admission for prospective studies when accurately estimating the mortality for sample size calculation is required.

Burn-center quality improvement: are burn outcomes dependent on admitting facilities and is there a volume-outcome "sweet-spot"?

PubMed

Hranjec, Tjasa; Turrentine, Florence E; Stukenborg, George; Young, Jeffrey S; Sawyer, Robert G; Calland, James F

2012-05-01

Risk factors of mortality in burn patients such as inhalation injury, patient age, and percent of total body surface area (%TBSA) burned have been identified in previous publications. However, little is known about the variability of mortality outcomes between burn centers and whether the admitting facilities or facility volumes can be recognized as predictors of mortality. De-identified data from 87,665 acute burn observations obtained from the National Burn Repository between 2003 and 2007 were used to estimate a multivariable logistic regression model that could predict patient mortality with reference to the admitting burn facility/facility volume, adjusted for differences in age, inhalation injury, %TBSA burned, and an additional factor, percent full thickness burn (%FTB). As previously reported, all three covariates (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, and age) were found to be highly statistically significant risk factors of mortality in burn patients (P value < 0.0001). The additional variable, %FTB, was also found to be a statistically significant determinant, although it did not greatly improve the multivariable model. The treatment/admitting facility was found to be an independent mortality predictor, with certain hospitals having increased odds of death and others showing a protective effect (decreased odds ratio). Hospitals with high burn volumes had the highest risk of mortality. Mortality outcomes of patients with similar risk factors (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, age, and %FTB) are significantly affected by the treating facility and their admission volumes.

Epidemiology and mortality of liver abscess in end-stage renal disease dialysis patients: Taiwan national cohort study.

PubMed

Hong, Chon-Seng; Chung, Kun-Ming; Huang, Po-Chang; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Yang, Chun-Ming; Chu, Chin-Chen; Chio, Chung-Ching; Chang, Fu-Lin; Chien, Chih-Chiang

2014-01-01

To determine the incidence rates and mortality of liver abscess in ESRD patients on dialysis. Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we collected data from all ESRD patients who initiated dialysis between 2000 and 2006. Patients were followed until death, end of dialysis, or December 31, 2008. Predictors of liver abscess and mortality were identified using Cox models. Of the 53,249 incident dialysis patients identified, 447 were diagnosed as having liver abscesses during the follow-up period (224/100,000 person-years). The cumulative incidence rate of liver abscess was 0.3%, 1.1%, and 1.5% at 1 year, 5 years, and 7 years, respectively. Elderly patients and patients on peritoneal dialysis had higher incidence rates. The baseline comorbidities of diabetes mellitus, polycystic kidney disease, malignancy, chronic liver disease, biliary tract disease, or alcoholism predicted development of liver abscess. Overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. The incidence of liver abscess is high among ESRD dialysis patients. In addition to the well known risk factors of liver abscess, two other important risk factors, peritoneal dialysis and polycystic kidney disease, were found to predict liver abscess in ESRD dialysis patients.

Among nonagenarians, congruence between self-rated and proxy-rated health was low but both predicted mortality.

PubMed

Vuorisalmi, Merja; Sarkeala, Tytti; Hervonen, Antti; Jylhä, Marja

2012-05-01

The congruence between self-rated global health (SRH) and proxy-rated global health (PRH), the factors associated with congruence between SRH and PRH, and their associations with mortality are examined using data from the Vitality 90+ study. The data consist of 213 pairs of subjects--aged 90 years and older--and proxies. The relationship between SRH and PRH was analyzed by chi-square test and Cohen's kappa. Logistic regression analysis was used to find out the factors that are associated with the congruence between health ratings. The association between SRH and PRH with mortality was studied using Cox proportional hazard models. The subjects rated their health more negatively than the proxies. Kappa value indicated only slight congruence between SRH and PRH, and they also predicted mortality differently. Good self-reported functional ability was associated with congruence between SRH and PRH. The results imply that the evaluation processes of SRH and PRH differ, and the measures are not directly interchangeable. Both measures are useful health indicators in very old age but SRH cannot be replaced by PRH in analyses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and pathogenic significance of severe sepsis and septic shock in 2286 patients with gram-negative bacteremia.

PubMed

Kang, Cheol-In; Song, Jae-Hoon; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Peck, Kyong Ran; Ko, Kwan Soo; Yeom, Joon-Sup; Ki, Hyun Kyun; Son, Jun Seong; Lee, Seung Soon; Kim, Yeon-Sook; Jung, Sook-In; Kim, Shin-Woo; Chang, Hyun-Ha; Ryu, Seong Yeol; Kwon, Ki Tae; Lee, Hyuck; Moon, Chisook

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for development of severe sepsis or septic shock and to evaluate the clinical impact of severe sepsis on outcome in patients with gram-negative bacteremia (GNB). From the database of a nationwide surveillance for bacteremia, patients with GNB were analyzed. Data of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were compared with those of patient with sepsis. Of 2286 patients with GNB, 506 (22.1%) fulfilled the criteria of severe sepsis or septic shock. Factors associated with severe sepsis or septic shock in the multivariate analysis included renal disease, indwelling urinary catheter, hematologic malignancy, and neutropenia. The 30-day mortality of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock was significantly higher than that of patients with sepsis (39.5% [172/435] vs. 7.4% [86/1170]; P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed that solid tumor, liver disease, pulmonary disease, pneumonia, and pathogens other than Escherichia coli, which were risk factors of development of severe sepsis or septic shock, were also found to be strong predictors of mortality. Severe sepsis or septic shock was a significant factor associated with mortality (OR, 3.34; 95% CI, 2.35-4.74), after adjustment for other variables predicting poor prognosis. Severe sepsis or septic shock was a common finding in patients with GNB, predicting a higher mortality rate. Renal disease and indwelling urinary catheter were the most important risk factors significantly associated with severe sepsis or septic shock among patients with GNB. Copyright © 2010 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Gatti, Giuseppe; Perrotti, Andrea; Obadia, Jean-François; Duval, Xavier; Iung, Bernard; Alla, François; Chirouze, Catherine; Selton-Suty, Christine; Hoen, Bruno; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Delahaye, François; Tattevin, Pierre; Le Moing, Vincent; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

2017-07-20

Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in-hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty-six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 mL/min (OR, 3.52; P <0.0001), New York Heart Association class IV (OR, 2.11; P =0.024), systolic pulmonary artery pressure >55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in-hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734-0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in-hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in-hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Mid-arm and calf circumferences are stronger mortality predictors than body mass index for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Ho, Shu-Chuan; Wang, Jiun-Yi; Kuo, Han-Pin; Huang, Chien-Da; Lee, Kang-Yun; Chuang, Hsiao-Chi; Feng, Po-Hao; Chen, Tzu-Tao; Hsu, Min-Fang

2016-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently the third most common cause of death in the world. Patients with COPD experience airflow obstruction, weight loss, skeletal muscle dysfunction, and comorbidities. Anthropometric indicators are risk factors for mortality in geriatric assessment. This study examined and compared the associations of anthropometric indicators, such as low body mass index (BMI), low mid-arm circumference (MAC), and low calf circumference (CC), with the prediction of a 3-year follow-up mortality risk in patients with COPD. We recruited nonhospitalized patients with COPD without acute conditions from a general hospital in Taiwan. The BMI, MAC, and CC of all patients were measured, and they were followed for 3 years through telephone interviews and chart reviews. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by BMI, MAC, and CC were analyzed. Variables univariately associated with survival were entered into a multivariate Cox regression model. The Bayesian information criterion was used to compare the predictive ability of the three anthropometric indicators to predict mortality rate. In total, 104 patients were included (mean ± standard deviation age, 74.2±6.9 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 second [%], 58.4±20.4 predicted; males, 94.2%); 22 patients (21.2%) died during the 36-month follow-up. During this long-term follow-up, the three anthropometric indicators could predict mortality risk in patients with COPD (low BMI [<21 kg/m(2)], hazard ratio [HR] =2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.10-7.10; low MAC [<23.5 cm], HR =3.09, 95% CI =1.30-7.38; low CC [<30 cm], HR =4.40, 95% CI =1.82-10.63). CC showed the strongest potential in predicting the mortality risk, followed by MAC and BMI. Among the three anthropometric variables examined, CC can be considered a strong predictor of mortality risk in patients with COPD.

Plasma concentration of diamine oxidase (DAO) predicts 1-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Li, Feng-Cai; Li, Yue-Kai; Fan, Yu-Chen; Wang, Kai

2018-05-26

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) has high 1-month mortality but it is difficult to predict. This present study was aimed to determine the diagnostic value of plasma diamine oxidase (DAO) in predicting the 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. A total of 106 consecutive newly diagnosed ACHBLF patients were retrospectively collected. The plasma expression of DAO was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The plasma DAO level of survivals [14.0 (7.1; 26.5) ng/mL] was significantly lower than the nonsurvivals [58.6 (32.5; 121.3) ng/mL, P < .001]. The plasma DAO level, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were independent factors associated with the 1-month mortality for ACHBLF. The cut-off point of 15.2 ng/mL for plasma DAO level with sensitivity of 95.45%, specificity of 62.5%, 22.6 for MELD score with sensitivity of 90.91%, specificity of 67.5%, 0.07 for DAO plus MELD with sensitivity of 87.88%, specificity of 80% were selected to discriminate 1-month morality of ACHBLF. Furthermore, DAO plus MELD score showed high AUROC than MELD score for predicting 1-month (0.916 vs. 0.843, P < .01). The plasma DAO level plus MELD > 0.07 predicts poor 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recidivistic offending and mortality in alcoholic violent offenders: a prospective follow-up study.

PubMed

Tikkanen, Roope; Holi, Matti; Lindberg, Nina; Tiihonen, Jari; Virkkunen, Matti

2009-06-30

Predictive data supporting prevention of violent criminality are scarce. We examined risk factors for recidivism and mortality among non-psychotic alcoholic violent offenders, the majority having antisocial or borderline personality disorders, or both, which is a group that commits the majority of violent offences in Finland. Criminal records and mortality data on 242 male alcoholic violent offenders were analysed after a 7- to 15-year follow-up, and compared between themselves and with those of 1210 age-, sex- and municipality-matched controls. Recidivism and mortality rates were high. The risk of recidivistic violence was increased by antisocial or borderline personality disorder, or both, childhood maltreatment, and a combination of these. A combination of borderline personality disorder and childhood maltreatment was particularly noxious, suggesting an additive risk increase for a poor outcome. Accurate diagnosis and careful childhood interview may help to predict recidivism and premature death.

Mortality prediction system for heart failure with orthogonal relief and dynamic radius means.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Yao, Lijuan; Li, Dongdong; Ruan, Tong; Liu, Min; Gao, Ju

2018-07-01

This paper constructs a mortality prediction system based on a real-world dataset. This mortality prediction system aims to predict mortality in heart failure (HF) patients. Effective mortality prediction can improve resources allocation and clinical outcomes, avoiding inappropriate overtreatment of low-mortality patients and discharging of high-mortality patients. This system covers three mortality prediction targets: prediction of in-hospital mortality, prediction of 30-day mortality and prediction of 1-year mortality. HF data are collected from the Shanghai Shuguang hospital. 10,203 in-patients records are extracted from encounters occurring between March 2009 and April 2016. The records involve 4682 patients, including 539 death cases. A feature selection method called Orthogonal Relief (OR) algorithm is first used to reduce the dimensionality. Then, a classification algorithm named Dynamic Radius Means (DRM) is proposed to predict the mortality in HF patients. The comparative experimental results demonstrate that mortality prediction system achieves high performance in all targets by DRM. It is noteworthy that the performance of in-hospital mortality prediction achieves 87.3% in AUC (35.07% improvement). Moreover, the AUC of 30-day and 1-year mortality prediction reach to 88.45% and 84.84%, respectively. Especially, the system could keep itself effective and not deteriorate when the dimension of samples is sharply reduced. The proposed system with its own method DRM can predict mortality in HF patients and achieve high performance in all three mortality targets. Furthermore, effective feature selection strategy can boost the system. This system shows its importance in real-world applications, assisting clinicians in HF treatment by providing crucial decision information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of factors influencing survival in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Kim, Yeon Ji; Kim, Dae Bum; Chung, Woo Chul; Lee, Ji Min; Youn, Gun Jung; Jung, Yun Duk; Choi, Sooa; Oh, Jung Hwan

2017-08-01

Acute pancreatitis (AP) ranges from a mild and self-limiting disease to a fulminant illness with significant morbidity and mortality. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is defined as persistent organ failure lasting for 48 h. We aimed to determine the factors that predict survival and mortality in patients with SAP. We reviewed a consecutive series of patients who were admitted with acute pancreatitis between January 2003 and January 2013. A total of 1213 cases involving 660 patients were evaluated, and 68 cases with SAP were selected for the study. Patients were graded based on the Computer Tomography Severity Index (CTSI), the bedside index for severity (BISAP), and Ranson's criteria. The frequency of SAP was 5.6% (68/1213 cases). Among these patients, 17 died due to pancreatitis-induced causes. We compared several factors between the survivor (n = 51) and non-survivor (n = 17) groups. On multivariate analysis, there were significant differences in the incidence of diabetes mellitus (p = .04), Ranson score (p = .03), bacteremia (p = .05) and body mass index (BMI) (p = .02) between the survivor and non-survivor groups. Bacteremia, high Ranson score, DM, and lower BMI were closely associated with mortality in patients with SAP. When patients with SAP show evidence of bacteremia or diabetes, aggressive treatment is necessary. For the prediction of disease mortality, the Ranson score might be a useful tool in SAP.

Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool (PH-DAT): A novel donor risk scoring system to predict 1-year mortality in pediatric heart transplantation.

PubMed

Zafar, Farhan; Jaquiss, Robert D; Almond, Christopher S; Lorts, Angela; Chin, Clifford; Rizwan, Raheel; Bryant, Roosevelt; Tweddell, James S; Morales, David L S

2018-03-01

In this study we sought to quantify hazards associated with various donor factors into a cumulative risk scoring system (the Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool, or PH-DAT) to predict 1-year mortality after pediatric heart transplantation (PHT). PHT data with complete donor information (5,732) were randomly divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort (3:1). From the derivation cohort, donor-specific variables associated with 1-year mortality (exploratory p-value < 0.2) were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. Scores were assigned to independent predictors (p < 0.05) based on relative odds ratios (ORs). The final model had an acceptable predictive value (c-statistic = 0.62). The significant 5 variables (ischemic time, stroke as the cause of death, donor-to-recipient height ratio, donor left ventricular ejection fraction, glomerular filtration rate) were used for the scoring system. The validation cohort demonstrated a strong correlation between the observed and expected rates of 1-year mortality (r = 0.87). The risk of 1-year mortality increases by 11% (OR 1.11 [1.08 to 1.14]; p < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 9% (OR 1.09 [1.04 to 1.14]; p = 0.001) in the validation cohort with an increase of 1-point in score. Mortality risk increased 5 times from the lowest to the highest donor score in this cohort. Based on this model, a donor score range of 10 to 28 predicted 1-year recipient mortality of 11% to 31%. This novel pediatric-specific, donor risk scoring system appears capable of predicting post-transplant mortality. Although the PH-DAT may benefit organ allocation and assessment of recipient risk while controlling for donor risk, prospective validation of this model is warranted. Copyright © 2018 International Society for the Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

PubMed

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk-reduction strategies, and guiding quality improvement efforts.

Definitive or conservative surgery for perforated gastric ulcer?--An unresolved problem.

PubMed

Sarath Chandra, Sistla; Kumar, S Siva

2009-04-01

Gastric ulcer perforation has not been the focus of many studies. In addition there is a need to analyze the results of gastric perforation separately and not along with duodenal perforations, to identify the factors influencing the outcome and to develop strategies for its management. Retrospective analysis of 54 patients presenting with gastric perforation. Mean age of the patients was 44.5 years with male preponderance. Morbidity following Closure of the perforation, acid reduction surgery and resection was not significantly different. Overall mortality was 16.6% with highest mortality 24.1% following simple closure. Mortality following simple closure and definitive surgery was not significantly different. Univariate analysis revealed preoperative shock, associated medical illness and surgical delay to be significant factors for mortality whereas on multivariate analysis, preoperative shock was the only independent predictor of mortality. Mortality increased with increasing Boey score but the association between the type of surgery and probability of survival was not statistically significant. Boey risk score is useful in predicting the outcome of surgical treatment for gastric perforation. Definitive surgery is not associated with greater morbidity or mortality compared to simple closure.

An integrated biochemical prediction model of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery for advanced peripheral artery disease

PubMed Central

Owens, Christopher D.; Kim, Ji Min; Hevelone, Nathanael D.; Gasper, Warren J.; Belkin, Michael; Creager, Mark A.; Conte, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Background Patients with advanced peripheral artery disease (PAD) have a high prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and shortened life expectancy. However, CV risk factors poorly predict midterm (<5 years) mortality in this population. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that baseline biochemical parameters would add clinically meaningful predictive information in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of subjects with clinically advanced PAD undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery. The Cox proportional hazard was used to assess the main outcome of all-cause mortality. A clinical model was constructed with known cardiovascular risk factors and the incremental value of the addition of clinical chemistry, lipid, and a panel of 11 inflammatory parameters were investigated using c-statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index and Akaike information criterion (AIC). Results 225 subjects were followed for a median 893 days; IQR 539–1315 days). In this study 50 (22.22%) subjects died during the follow-up period. By life table analysis (expressed as percent surviving ± standard error), survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years respectively was 90.5 ± 1.9%, 83.4 ± 2.5%, 77.5 ± 3.1%, 71.0 ± 3.8%, and 65.3 ± 6.5%. Compared with survivors, decedents were older, diabetic, had extant CAD, and were more likely to present with CLI as their indication for bypass surgery, P<.05. After adjustment for the above, clinical chemistry and inflammatory parameters significant for all cause mortality were albumin, HR .43 (95% CI .26–.71); P=.001, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), HR .98 (95% CI .97–.99), P=.023, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), HR 3.21 (95% CI 1.21–8.55), P=.019, and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM), HR 1.74 (1.04–2.91), P=.034. Of all inflammatory molecules investigated, hsCRP proved most robust and representative of the integrated inflammatory response. Albumin, eGFR, and hsCRP improved the c-statistic and IDI beyond that of the clinical model and produced a final c-statistic of .82. Conclusions A risk prediction model including traditional risk factors and parameters of inflammation, renal function and nutrition had excellent discriminatory ability in predicting all cause mortality in patients with clinically advanced PAD undergoing bypass surgery. PMID:22554422

An integrated biochemical prediction model of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery for advanced peripheral artery disease.

PubMed

Owens, Christopher D; Kim, Ji Min; Hevelone, Nathanael D; Gasper, Warren J; Belkin, Michael; Creager, Mark A; Conte, Michael S

2012-09-01

Patients with advanced peripheral artery disease (PAD) have a high prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and shortened life expectancy. However, CV risk factors poorly predict midterm (<5 years) mortality in this population. This study tested the hypothesis that baseline biochemical parameters would add clinically meaningful predictive information in patients undergoing lower extremity bypass operations. This was a prospective cohort study of patients with clinically advanced PAD undergoing lower extremity bypass surgery. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the main outcome of all-cause mortality. A clinical model was constructed with known CV risk factors, and the incremental value of the addition of clinical chemistry, lipid assessment, and a panel of 11 inflammatory parameters was investigated using the C statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement index, and Akaike information criterion. The study monitored 225 patients for a median of 893 days (interquartile range, 539-1315 days). In this study, 50 patients (22.22%) died during the follow-up period. By life-table analysis (expressed as percent surviving ± standard error), survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, respectively, was 90.5% ± 1.9%, 83.4% ± 2.5%, 77.5% ± 3.1%, 71.0% ± 3.8%, and 65.3% ± 6.5%. Compared with survivors, decedents were older, diabetic, had extant coronary artery disease, and were more likely to present with critical limb ischemia as their indication for bypass surgery (P < .05). After adjustment for the above, clinical chemistry and inflammatory parameters significant (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) for all-cause mortality were albumin (0.43 [0.26-0.71]; P = .001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (0.98 [0.97-0.99]; P = .023), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP; 3.21 [1.21-8.55]; P = .019), and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule (1.74 [1.04-2.91]; P = .034). Of the inflammatory molecules investigated, hsCRP proved most robust and representative of the integrated inflammatory response. Albumin, eGFR, and hsCRP improved the C statistic and integrated discrimination improvement index beyond that of the clinical model and produced a final C statistic of 0.82. A risk prediction model including traditional risk factors and parameters of inflammation, renal function, and nutrition had excellent discriminatory ability in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with clinically advanced PAD undergoing bypass surgery. Copyright © 2012 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of 90-day mortality in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis: Experience with 183 patients at a tertiary care center from India.

PubMed

Daswani, Ravi; Kumar, Ashish; Anikhindi, Shrihari Anil; Sharma, Praveen; Singla, Vikas; Bansal, Naresh; Arora, Anil

2018-03-01

Severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is not an uncommon indication for hospital admission in India. However, there is limited data from India on predictors of mortality in patients of severe AH. We analyzed the data on patients with severe AH admitted to our institute and compared various parameters and severity scores in predicting 90-day mortality. In this prospective study, we analyzed patients with severe AH (defined as discriminant function ≥ 32) admitted from January 2015 to February 2017 to our institute. All patients were administered standard treatment according to various guidelines, and their 90-day mortality was determined. Various hematologic, biochemical factors, and severity scores were compared between survivors and patients who died. A total of 183 patients (98% males, median age 41 years [range 20-70 years]) were included in our study. The median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 26 (15-40). Ascites were present in 83% and hepatic encephalopathy in 38%. Only 21 (12%) could be offered steroid therapy, due to contraindications in the remaining. By 90 days, only 103 (56%) patients survived while 80 (44%) died. All patients died due to progressive liver failure and its complications. On multivariate analysis, presence of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, high bilirubin, low albumin, high creatinine, high INR, and low potassium independently predicted 90-day mortality. All the scores performed significantly in predicting 90-day mortality with no statistically significant difference between them. MELD score had a maximum area under the curve 0.76 for 90-day mortality. A combination of Child class and presence of acute kidney injury (creatinine ≥ 1.35) was good in predicting 90-day mortality. Our patients had severe AH characterized by a median MELD score of 26 and had a 90-day mortality of 44%. Most patients were not eligible to receive corticosteroids. Presence of Child C status and high serum creatinine value (≥ 1.35 mg/dL) accurately predicted mortality. Newer treatment options need to be explored for these patients.

Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

PubMed Central

Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

2009-01-01

Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

Mortality risk factor analysis in colonic perforation: would retroperitoneal contamination increase mortality in colonic perforation?

PubMed

Yoo, Ri Na; Kye, Bong-Hyeon; Kim, Gun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Hyeon-Min

2017-10-01

Colonic perforation is a lethal condition presenting high morbidity and mortality in spite of urgent surgical treatment. This study investigated the surgical outcome of patients with colonic perforation associated with retroperitoneal contamination. Retrospective analysis was performed for 30 patients diagnosed with colonic perforation caused by either inflammation or ischemia who underwent urgent surgical treatment in our facility from January 2005 to December 2014. Patient characteristics were analyzed to find risk factors correlated with increased postoperative mortality. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) audit system, the mortality and morbidity rates were estimated to verify the surgical outcomes. Patients with retroperitoneal contamination, defined by the presence of retroperitoneal air in the preoperative abdominopelvic CT, were compared to those without retroperitoneal contamination. Eight out of 30 patients (26.7%) with colonic perforation had died after urgent surgical treatment. Factors associated with mortality included age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and the ischemic cause of colonic perforation. Three out of 6 patients (50%) who presented retroperitoneal contamination were deceased. Although the patients with retroperitoneal contamination did not show significant increase in the mortality rate, they showed significantly higher ASA physical status classification than those without retroperitoneal contamination. The mortality rate predicted from Portsmouth POSSUM was higher in the patients with retroperitoneal contamination. Patients presenting colonic perforation along with retroperitoneal contamination demonstrated severe comorbidity. However, retroperitoneal contamination was not found to be correlated with the mortality rate.

Prediction of postoperative outcome after hepatectomy with a new bedside test for maximal liver function capacity.

PubMed

Stockmann, Martin; Lock, Johan F; Riecke, Björn; Heyne, Karsten; Martus, Peter; Fricke, Michael; Lehmann, Sina; Niehues, Stefan M; Schwabe, Michael; Lemke, Arne-Jörn; Neuhaus, Peter

2009-07-01

To validate the LiMAx test, a new bedside test for the determination of maximal liver function capacity based on C-methacetin kinetics. To investigate the diagnostic performance of different liver function tests and scores including the LiMAx test for the prediction of postoperative outcome after hepatectomy. Liver failure is a major cause of mortality after hepatectomy. Preoperative prediction of residual liver function has been limited so far. Sixty-four patients undergoing hepatectomy were analyzed in a prospective observational study. Volumetric analysis of the liver was carried out using preoperative computed tomography and intraoperative measurements. Perioperative factors associated with morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Cutoff values of the LiMAx test were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic. Residual LiMAx demonstrated an excellent linear correlation with residual liver volume (r = 0.94, P < 0.001) after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis revealed LiMAx on postoperative day 1 as the only predictor of liver failure (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.004). AUROC for the prediction of liver failure and liver failure related death by the LiMAx test was both 0.99. Preoperative volume/function analysis combining CT volumetry and LiMAx allowed an accurate calculation of the remnant liver function capacity prior to surgery (r = 0.85, P < 0.001). Residual liver function is the major factor influencing the outcome of patients after hepatectomy and can be predicted preoperatively by a combination of LiMAx and CT volumetry.

Lifestyle Risk Factors Predict Disability and Death in Healthy Aging Adults

PubMed Central

Chakravarty, Eliza F.; Hubert, Helen B.; Krishnan, Eswar; Bruce, Bonnie B.; Lingala, Vijaya B.; Fries, James F.

2011-01-01

Background Associations between modifiable health risk factors during middle age with disability and mortality in later life are critical to maximizing longevity while preserving function. Positive health effects of maintaining normal weight, routine exercise, and non-smoking are known for the short and intermediate term. We studied the effects of these risk factors into advanced age. Methods A cohort of 2,327 college alumnae ≥60 years was followed annually (1986–2005) by questionnaires addressing health risk factors, history, and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability (HAQ-DI). Mortality data were ascertained from the National Death Index. Low, medium, and high risk groups were created based upon the number (0, 1, ≥2) of health risk factors (overweight, smoking, inactivity) at baseline. Disability and mortality for each group were estimated from unadjusted data and regression analyses. Multivariable survival analyses estimated time to disability or death. Results Medium and high-risk groups had higher disability than the low risk group throughout the study (p<0.001). Low-risk subjects had onset of moderate disability delayed 8.3 years compared with high-risk. Mortality rates were higher in the high risk group (384 versus 247 per 10,000 person-years). Multivariable survival analyses showed the number of risk factors to be associated with cumulative disability and increased mortality. Conclusions Seniors with fewer behavioral risk factors during middle age have lower disability and improved survival. These data document that the associations of lifestyle risk factors upon health continue into the ninth decade. PMID:22269623

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture: findings from a nationally representative sample.

PubMed

Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

2015-01-01

Background. India accounts for 24% to all under-five mortality in the world. Residence in rural area, poverty and low levels of mother's education are known confounders of under-five mortality. Since two-thirds of India's population lives in rural areas, mothers employed in agriculture present a particularly vulnerable population in the Indian context and it is imperative that concerns of this sizeable population are addressed in order to achieve MDG4 targets of reducing U5MR to fewer than 41 per 1,000 by 2015. This study was conducted to examine factors associated with under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture. Methods. Data was retrieved from National Family Household Survey-3 in India (2008). The study population is comprised of a national representative sample of single children aged 0 to 59 months and born to mothers aged 15 to 49 years employed in agriculture from all 29 states of India. Univariate and Multivariate Cox PH regression analysis was used to analyse the Hazard Rates of mortality. The predictive power of child mortality among mothers employed in agriculture was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. An increase in mothers' ages corresponds with a decrease in child mortality. Breastfeeding reduces child mortality by 70% (HR 0.30, 0.25-0.35, p = 0.001). Standard of Living reduces child mortality by 32% with high standard of living (HR 0.68, 0.52-0.89, 0.001) in comparison to low standard of living. Prenatal care (HR 0.40, 0.34-0.48, p = 0.001) and breastfeeding health nutrition education (HR 0.45, 0.31-0.66, p = 0.001) are associated significant factors for child mortality. Birth Order five is a risk factor for mortality (HR 1.49, 1.05-2.10, p = 0.04) in comparison to Birth Order one among women engaged in agriculture while the household size (6-10 members and ≥ 11 members) is significant in reducing child mortality in comparison to ≤5 members in the house. Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture in India discriminated well between death and survival (Area Under ROC was 0.75, 95% CI [0.73-0.77]) indicating that the model is good for appropriate prediction of child mortality. Conclusion. In a nationally representative sample of households in India, mother's age, breastfeeding, standard of living, prenatal care and breastfeeding health nutrition education are associated with reduction in child mortality.

Factors affecting mortality in older trauma patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sammy, Ian; Lecky, Fiona; Sutton, Anthea; Leaviss, Joanna; O'Cathain, Alicia

2016-06-01

Major trauma in older people is a significant health burden in the developed world. The aging of the population has resulted in larger numbers of older patients suffering serious injury. Older trauma patients are at greater risk of death from major trauma, but the reasons for this are less well understood. The aim of this review was to identify the factors affecting mortality in older patients suffering major injury. A systematic review of Medline, Cinhal and the Cochrane database, supplemented by a manual search of relevant papers was undertaken, with meta-analysis. Multi-centre cohort studies of existing trauma registries that reported risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted odds ratios, AOR) in their outcomes and which analysed patients aged 65 and older as a separate cohort were included in the review. 3609 papers were identified from the electronic databases, and 28 from manual searches. Of these, 15 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables (age and gender), pre-existing conditions (comorbidities and medication), and injury-related factors (injury severity, pattern and mechanism) were found to affect mortality. The 'oldest old', aged 75 and older, had higher mortality rates than younger patients, aged 65-74 years. Older men had a significantly higher mortality rate than women (cumulative odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.37-1.66). Three papers reported a higher risk of death in patients with pre-existing conditions. Two studies reported increased mortality in patients on warfarin (cumulative odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). Higher mortality was seen in patients with lower Glasgow coma scores and systolic blood pressures. Mortality increased with increased injury severity and number of injuries sustained. Low level falls were associated with higher mortality than motor vehicle collisions (cumulative odds ratio 2.88, 95% CI 1.26-6.60). Multiple factors contribute to mortality risk in older trauma patients. The relation between these factors and mortality is complex, and a fuller understanding of the contribution of each factor is needed to develop a better predictive model for trauma outcomes in older people. More research is required to identify patient and process factors affecting mortality in older patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Los Años de la Crisis: an examination of change in differential infant mortality risk within Mexico.

PubMed

Frank, R; Finch, Brian Karl

2004-08-01

The main aim of the present analysis is to test the possibility that the period of economic hardship characterizing Mexico over the decade 1986-1996 has negatively influenced infant health outcomes. Data on births from two installments of the Encuesta Nacional de la Dinámica Demográfica, a nationally representative demographic survey, are used to determine whether a reduction in mortality differentials has paralleled the overall drop in the national infant mortality rate. The findings indicate that the decrease observed in the overall infant mortality rate has been matched by decreases in several disparities at the same time that it has been marred by increases in others. The data support the possibility that where you live has become an increasingly salient factor in determining the odds of infant mortality. High parity, low education and unemployment status have also become more salient factors in predicting post neonatal infant mortality risk in the more recent period as compared to the earlier period. As Mexico's infant mortality rate begins to stabilize in the near future, this research highlights the need to re-focus our research efforts on the causes and consequences of differential mortality trends.

Poor caregiver mental health predicts mortality of patients with neurodegenerative disease

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Casey, James J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Levenson, Robert W.

2017-01-01

Dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases cause profound declines in functioning; thus, many patients require caregivers for assistance with daily living. Patients differ greatly in how long they live after disease onset, with the nature and severity of the disease playing an important role. Caregiving can also be extremely stressful, and many caregivers experience declines in mental health. In this study, we investigated the role that caregiver mental health plays in patient mortality. In 176 patient–caregiver dyads, we found that worse caregiver mental health predicted greater patient mortality even when accounting for key risk factors in patients (i.e., diagnosis, age, sex, dementia severity, and patient mental health). These findings highlight the importance of caring for caregivers as well as patients when attempting to improve patients’ lives. PMID:28655841

Poor caregiver mental health predicts mortality of patients with neurodegenerative disease.

PubMed

Lwi, Sandy J; Ford, Brett Q; Casey, James J; Miller, Bruce L; Levenson, Robert W

2017-07-11

Dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases cause profound declines in functioning; thus, many patients require caregivers for assistance with daily living. Patients differ greatly in how long they live after disease onset, with the nature and severity of the disease playing an important role. Caregiving can also be extremely stressful, and many caregivers experience declines in mental health. In this study, we investigated the role that caregiver mental health plays in patient mortality. In 176 patient-caregiver dyads, we found that worse caregiver mental health predicted greater patient mortality even when accounting for key risk factors in patients (i.e., diagnosis, age, sex, dementia severity, and patient mental health). These findings highlight the importance of caring for caregivers as well as patients when attempting to improve patients' lives.

[Perioperative mortality. Risk factors associated with anaesthesia].

PubMed

Zajac, Krzysztof; Zajac, Małgorzata

2005-01-01

Perioperative mortality associated with anaesthesia has been closely monitored throughout half of the century. The breakthrough in anaesthesia safety occurred in the 80-ties and 90-ties of the last century, when we could witness 5-folded reduction in mortality associated with anaesthesia, i.e. from 1 death:2680 operations/anaesthetic procedures (the 50-ties of the 20 h century) to 1:10,000 (and even 20-folded reduction within the ASA 1 and 2 groups of the patients--1 death:185,000 procedures). However, the more detailed analysis showed that the perioperative mortality is significantly higher, namely 1 death: approximately 500 procedures, and in the ASA 5 group of patients 1:4.5 procedures; what is more meaningful, the numbers have not been changed since 50 years. This phenomenon supports the thesis of anaesthesia safety, however, it indicates the drawbacks within the models and scoring systems evaluating operative risk. Several available scoring scales which can predict death rate, at the same time are not able to assess the extent of the other than biological risk factors. The "extra-biological risk" (i.e. process of therapy) may in some cases increase the operative risk as a whole. The value of the operative risk, as the fraction given by predicted death rate, is located between the numbers 0 and 1 (or between survival and death in the binary model of the probability theory). Recognition of the "extrabiological risk" value depends however on the high sensitivity of the scales evaluating prediction of death rate.

SEPARABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO MORTALITY DATA

PubMed Central

Fosdick, Bailey K.; Hoff, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume an independent error distribution or an error model that allows for dependence along at most one or two dimensions of the data array. However, failing to account for other dependencies can lead to inefficient estimates of regression parameters, inaccurate standard errors and poor predictions. An alternative to assuming independent errors is to allow for dependence along each dimension of the array using a separable covariance model. However, the number of parameters in this model increases rapidly with the dimensions of the array and, for many arrays, maximum likelihood estimates of the covariance parameters do not exist. In this paper, we propose a submodel of the separable covariance model that estimates the covariance matrix for each dimension as having factor analytic structure. This model can be viewed as an extension of factor analysis to array-valued data, as it uses a factor model to estimate the covariance along each dimension of the array. We discuss properties of this model as they relate to ordinary factor analysis, describe maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods, and provide a likelihood ratio testing procedure for selecting the factor model ranks. We apply this methodology to the analysis of data from the Human Mortality Database, and show in a cross-validation experiment how it outperforms simpler methods. Additionally, we use this model to impute mortality rates for countries that have no mortality data for several years. Unlike other approaches, our methodology is able to estimate similarities between the mortality rates of countries, time periods and sexes, and use this information to assist with the imputations. PMID:25489353

Associations of all-cause mortality with census-based neighbourhood deprivation and population density in Japan: a multilevel survival analysis.

PubMed

Nakaya, Tomoki; Honjo, Kaori; Hanibuchi, Tomoya; Ikeda, Ai; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2014-01-01

Despite evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect residents' health, no prospective studies of the association between neighbourhood socio-demographic factors and all-cause mortality have been conducted in non-Western societies. Thus, we examined the effects of areal deprivation and population density on all-cause mortality in Japan. We employed census and survival data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, Cohort I (n = 37,455), consisting of middle-aged residents (40 to 59 years at the baseline in 1990) living in four public health centre districts. Data spanned between 1990 and 2010. A multilevel parametric proportional-hazard regression model was applied to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality by two census-based areal variables--areal deprivation index and population density--as well as individualistic variables such as socioeconomic status and various risk factors. We found that areal deprivation and population density had moderate associations with all-cause mortality at the neighbourhood level based on the survival data with 21 years of follow-ups. Even when controlling for individualistic socio-economic status and behavioural factors, the HRs of the two areal factors (using quartile categorical variables) significantly predicted mortality. Further, this analysis indicated an interaction effect of the two factors: areal deprivation prominently affects the health of residents in neighbourhoods with high population density. We confirmed that neighbourhood socio-demographic factors are significant predictors of all-cause death in Japanese non-metropolitan settings. Although further study is needed to clarify the cause-effect relationship of this association, the present findings suggest that health promotion policies should consider health disparities between neighbourhoods and possibly direct interventions towards reducing mortality in densely populated and highly deprived neighbourhoods.

[Prognostic factors of mortality in the malignant biliary obstruction unresectable after the insertion of an endoscopic stent].

PubMed

Hernández Guerrero, Angélica; Sánchez del Monte, Julio; Sobrino Cossío, Sergio; Alonso Lárraga, Octavio; Delgado de la Cruz, Lourdes; Frías Mendívil, M Mauricio; Frías Mendívil, C Mauricio

2006-01-01

To determine the factors prognostics of early mortality in the malignant billary estenosis after the endoscopic derivation. The surgical, percutaneous or endoscopic derivation is the alternative of palliative treatment in the biliary obstruction unresectable. The factors prognostic the early mortality after surgical derivation are: hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, serum bilirubin > 10 mg/dL and serum albumin < 2.5 g/dL; for the percutaneous derivation they are the sanguineous urea more of 4.3 mmol/L and hemoglobin < 10.9 g/dL; whereas in the single endoscopic derivation type 3 of Bismuth and the infectious complications after the endoscopic colangiography and the absence of the clinical success were factors prognoses of early mortality. Descriptive and retrospective analysis of 97 cases with malignant biliary obstruction. The factors were evaluated prognoses of early mortality. Univariated and bivaried analysis and of survival by the method of Kaplan-Meier was made curved. 97 cases were included that presented/displayed unresectable disease and had a biochemical control subsequent to the drainage. They were 58 women and 39 men. More frequent symptoms: ictericia, pain and prurito. 61 cases of distal obstruction and 36 with proximal obstruction. Twenty deaths (25.9%) happened within the 30 later days to the treatment. The bilirubin > 14 mg/dL and the proximal location were like predicting of early mortality. The obstruction biliary more frequent is located in choledocho distal and is of pancreatic origin. The main factors associated to early mortality are: the bilirubin > of 14 mg/dL and the proximal location reason why is important the suitable selection of patient candidates to endoscopic derivation. The survival is better in the distal obstruction.

Associations of All-Cause Mortality with Census-Based Neighbourhood Deprivation and Population Density in Japan: A Multilevel Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Nakaya, Tomoki; Honjo, Kaori; Hanibuchi, Tomoya; Ikeda, Ai; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2014-01-01

Background Despite evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect residents' health, no prospective studies of the association between neighbourhood socio-demographic factors and all-cause mortality have been conducted in non-Western societies. Thus, we examined the effects of areal deprivation and population density on all-cause mortality in Japan. Methods We employed census and survival data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, Cohort I (n = 37,455), consisting of middle-aged residents (40 to 59 years at the baseline in 1990) living in four public health centre districts. Data spanned between 1990 and 2010. A multilevel parametric proportional-hazard regression model was applied to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality by two census-based areal variables —areal deprivation index and population density—as well as individualistic variables such as socioeconomic status and various risk factors. Results We found that areal deprivation and population density had moderate associations with all-cause mortality at the neighbourhood level based on the survival data with 21 years of follow-ups. Even when controlling for individualistic socio-economic status and behavioural factors, the HRs of the two areal factors (using quartile categorical variables) significantly predicted mortality. Further, this analysis indicated an interaction effect of the two factors: areal deprivation prominently affects the health of residents in neighbourhoods with high population density. Conclusions We confirmed that neighbourhood socio-demographic factors are significant predictors of all-cause death in Japanese non-metropolitan settings. Although further study is needed to clarify the cause-effect relationship of this association, the present findings suggest that health promotion policies should consider health disparities between neighbourhoods and possibly direct interventions towards reducing mortality in densely populated and highly deprived neighbourhoods. PMID:24905731

Seatbelt compliance and mortality in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in comparison with other high-income countries.

PubMed

Abbas, Alaa K; Hefny, Ashraf F; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M

2011-01-01

Mortality from road traffic collisions (RTC) is a major problem in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Low compliance with seatbelt usage can be a contributing factor for increased mortality. The present study aimed to ascertain the presence of a relationship between seatbelt non-compliance of vehicle occupants and mortality rates in the GCC countries versus other high-income countries. Observational and descriptive study using information published by the World Health Organization. Data for all GCC countries (n=6) and other high-income countries (n=37) were retrieved and compared with regard to population, gross national income, number of vehicles, seatbelt non-compliance and road traffic death rates. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to define factors affecting the mortality rates. The median road traffic death rates, occupant death rates, and the percentage of seatbelt non-compliance were significantly higher in the GCC countries (P<.0001, P=.02, P<.001, respectively). There was a strong correlation between occupant death rates and seatbelt non-compliance (R=.52, P=.008). Seatbelt non-compliance percentage was the only significant factor predicting mortality in the multiple linear regression model (P=.015). Seatbelt non-compliance percentages in the GCC countries are significantly higher than in other high-income countries. This is a contributing factor in the increased road traffic collision mortality rate in these countries. Enforcement of seatbelt usage by law should be mandatory so as to reduce the toll of death of RTC in the GCC countries.

Predicting Dropout Using Student- and School-Level Factors: An Ecological Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Laura; Kiperman, Sarah; Esch, Rachel C.; Leroux, Audrey J.; Truscott, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

High school dropout has been associated with negative outcomes, including increased rates of unemployment, incarceration, and mortality. Dropout rates vary significantly depending on individual and environmental factors. The purpose of our study was to use an ecological perspective to concurrently explore student- and school-level predictors…

Risk factors and mortality associated with default from multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment.

PubMed

Franke, Molly F; Appleton, Sasha C; Bayona, Jaime; Arteaga, Fernando; Palacios, Eda; Llaro, Karim; Shin, Sonya S; Becerra, Mercedes C; Murray, Megan B; Mitnick, Carole D

2008-06-15

Completing treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) may be more challenging than completing first-line TB therapy, especially in resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy (defined as prolonged treatment interruption), (2) quantify mortality among patients who default from treatment, and (3) identify risk factors for death after default from treatment. We performed a retrospective chart review to identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy and conducted home visits to assess mortality among patients who defaulted from such therapy. Sixty-seven (10.0%) of 671 patients defaulted from MDR TB therapy. The median time to treatment default was 438 days (interquartile range, 152-710 days), and 27 (40.3%) of the 67 patients who defaulted from treatment had culture-positive sputum at the time of default. Substance use (hazard ratio, 2.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.56-5.62; P = .001), substandard housing conditions (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.11; P = .03), later year of enrollment (hazard ratio, 1.62, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.41; P = .02), and health district (P = .02) predicted default from therapy in a multivariable analysis. Severe adverse events did not predict default from therapy. Forty-seven (70.1%) of 67 patients who defaulted from therapy were successfully traced; of these, 25 (53.2%) had died. Poor bacteriologic response, <1 year of treatment at the time of default, low education level, and diagnosis with a psychiatric disorder significantly predicted death after default in a multivariable analysis. The proportion of patients who defaulted from MDR TB treatment was relatively low. The large proportion of patients who had culture-positive sputum at the time of treatment default underscores the public health importance of minimizing treatment default. Prognosis for patients who defaulted from therapy was poor. Interventions aimed at preventing treatment default may reduce TB-related mortality.

A predictive model for early mortality after surgical treatment of heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis. The EndoSCORE.

PubMed

Di Mauro, Michele; Dato, Guglielmo Mario Actis; Barili, Fabio; Gelsomino, Sandro; Santè, Pasquale; Corte, Alessandro Della; Carrozza, Antonio; Ratta, Ester Della; Cugola, Diego; Galletti, Lorenzo; Devotini, Roger; Casabona, Riccardo; Santini, Francesco; Salsano, Antonio; Scrofani, Roberto; Antona, Carlo; Botta, Luca; Russo, Claudio; Mancuso, Samuel; Rinaldi, Mauro; De Vincentiis, Carlo; Biondi, Andrea; Beghi, Cesare; Cappabianca, Giangiuseppe; Tarzia, Vincenzo; Gerosa, Gino; De Bonis, Michele; Pozzoli, Alberto; Nicolini, Francesco; Benassi, Filippo; Rosato, Francesco; Grasso, Elena; Livi, Ugolino; Sponga, Sandro; Pacini, Davide; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; De Martino, Andrea; Bortolotti, Uberto; Onorati, Francesco; Faggian, Giuseppe; Lorusso, Roberto; Vizzardi, Enrico; Di Giammarco, Gabriele; Marinelli, Daniele; Villa, Emmanuel; Troise, Giovanni; Picichè, Marco; Musumeci, Francesco; Paparella, Domenico; Margari, Vito; Tritto, Francesco; Damiani, Girolamo; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Zaccaria, Salvatore; Renzulli, Attilio; Serraino, Giuseppe; Mariscalco, Giovanni; Maselli, Daniele; Foschi, Massimiliano; Parolari, Alessandro; Nappi, Giannantonio

2017-08-15

The aim of this large retrospective study was to provide a logistic risk model along an additive score to predict early mortality after surgical treatment of patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis (IE). From 2000 to 2015, 2715 patients with native valve endocarditis (NVE) or prosthesis valve endocarditis (PVE) were operated on in 26 Italian Cardiac Surgery Centers. The relationship between early mortality and covariates was evaluated with logistic mixed effect models. Fixed effects are parameters associated with the entire population or with certain repeatable levels of experimental factors, while random effects are associated with individual experimental units (centers). Early mortality was 11.0% (298/2715); At mixed effect logistic regression the following variables were found associated with early mortality: age class, female gender, LVEF, preoperative shock, COPD, creatinine value above 2mg/dl, presence of abscess, number of treated valve/prosthesis (with respect to one treated valve/prosthesis) and the isolation of Staphylococcus aureus, Fungus spp., Pseudomonas Aeruginosa and other micro-organisms, while Streptococcus spp., Enterococcus spp. and other Staphylococci did not affect early mortality, as well as no micro-organisms isolation. LVEF was found linearly associated with outcomes while non-linear association between mortality and age was tested and the best model was found with a categorization into four classes (AUC=0.851). The following study provides a logistic risk model to predict early mortality in patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis undergoing surgical treatment, called "The EndoSCORE". Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The utility of the additive EuroSCORE, RIFLE and AKIN staging scores in the prediction and diagnosis of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Duthie, Fiona A I; McGeehan, Paul; Hill, Sharleen; Phelps, Richard; Kluth, David C; Zamvar, Vipin; Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A

2014-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a complication associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. We compared staging systems for the diagnosis of AKI after cardiac surgery, and assessed pre-operative factors predictive of post-operative AKI. Clinical data, surgical risk scores, procedure and clinical outcome were obtained on all 4,651 patients undergoing cardiac surgery to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between April 2006 and March 2011, of whom 4,572 had sufficient measurements of creatinine before and after surgery to permit inclusion and analysis. The presence of AKI was assessed using the AKIN and RIFLE criteria. By AKIN criteria, 12.4% of the studied population developed AKI versus 6.5% by RIFLE criteria. Any post-operation AKI was associated with increased mortality from 2.2 to 13.5% (relative risk 7.0, p < 0.001), and increased inpatient stay from a median of 7 (IQR 4) to 9 (IQR 11) days (p < 0.05). Patients identified by AKIN, but not RIFLE, had a mean peak creatinine rise of 34% from baseline and had a significantly lower mortality compared to RIFLE-'Risk' AKI (mortality 6.1 vs. 9.7%; p < 0.05). Pre-operative creatinine, diabetes, NYHA Class IV dyspnoea and EuroSCORE-1 (a surgical risk score) all predicted subsequent AKI on multivariate analysis. EuroSCORE-1 outperformed any single demographic factor in predicting post-operative AKI risk, equating to an 8% increase in relative risk for each additional point. AKI after cardiac surgery is associated with delayed discharge and high mortality rates. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria identify patients at a range of AKI severity levels suitable for trial recruitment. The utility of EuroSCORE as a risk stratification tool to identify high AKI-risk subjects for prospective intervention merits further study.

The association between plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Wu, Shuang; Yang, Yan-Min; Zhu, Jun; Ren, Jia-Meng; Wang, Juan; Zhang, Han; Shao, Xing-Hui

2018-05-01

The prognostic role of big endothelin-1 (ET-1) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. We aimed to assess its predictive value in patients with AF. A total of 716 AF patients were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of big ET-1 in predicting all-cause mortality. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and major adverse events (MAEs). Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed to assess the predictive value of big ET-1 on outcomes. With the optimal cut-off value of 0.55 pmol/L, 326 patients were classified into the high big ET-1 levels group. Cardiac dysfunction and left atrial dilation were factors related to high big ET-1 levels. During a median follow-up of 3 years, patients with big ET-1 ≥ 0.55 pmol/L had notably higher risk of all-cause death (44.8% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.001), MAEs (51.8% vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001), cardiovascular death, major bleeding, and tended to have higher thromboembolic risk. After adjusting for confounding factors, high big ET-1 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.05; p < 0.001), MAEs (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.50-2.80; p = 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.52-3.93; p < 0.001). NRI analysis showed that big ET-1 allowed a significant improvement of 0.32 in the accuracy of predicting the risk of both all-cause mortality and MAEs. Elevated big ET-1 levels is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality, MAEs, and cardiovascular death in patients with AF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.

Prognostic value of uric acid in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ndrepepa, Gjin; Braun, Siegmund; King, Lamin; Cassese, Salvatore; Tada, Tomohisa; Fusaro, Massimiliano; Hadamitzky, Martin; Haase, Hans-Ullrich; Schömig, Albert; Kastrati, Adnan

2013-02-01

Studies investigating the prognostic role of UA (uric acid) in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus have given conflicting findings. We undertook the present study to assess the association between UA and outcome in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus and CAD (coronary artery disease). The study included 3705 patients with diabetes mellitus and angiography-proven CAD. UA was measured before coronary angiography. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality. The UA concentration [median (25th-75th quartiles)] was 6.44 mg/dl (5.40-7.70 mg/dl). There were 264 deaths (7.1%) during follow-up: 45 deaths in patients of the first UA quartile, 43 deaths in patients of the second UA quartile, 51 deaths in patients of the third UA quartile and 125 deaths in patients of the fourth UA quartile {Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality, 5.1, 4.8, 5.6 and 14.0% respectively; unadjusted HR (hazard ratio), 2.81 [95% CI (confidence interval), 2.21-3.58]; P<0.001 for fourth quartile compared with first-third quartiles combined}. In the multivariable analysis, UA predicted all-cause mortality with an adjusted HR of 1.29 (95% CI, 1.12-1.48; P<0.001), for each S.D. increase in the logarithmic scale of UA level. The inclusion of UA in the multivariable model alongside known cardiovascular risk factors and other relevant variables increased the discriminatory power of the model regarding prediction of all-cause mortality [absolute and relative IDI (integrated discrimination improvement) 0.034 and 20.5% respectively; P<0.001]. In conclusion, in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus and confirmed CAD, elevated levels of UA predict mortality independently of known cardiovascular risk factors.

Severe acute malnutrition in childhood: hormonal and metabolic status at presentation, response to treatment, and predictors of mortality.

PubMed

Bartz, Sarah; Mody, Aaloke; Hornik, Christoph; Bain, James; Muehlbauer, Michael; Kiyimba, Tonny; Kiboneka, Elizabeth; Stevens, Robert; Bartlett, John; St Peter, John V; Newgard, Christopher B; Freemark, Michael

2014-06-01

Malnutrition is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. To identify and target those at highest risk, there is a critical need to characterize biomarkers that predict complications prior to and during treatment. We used targeted and nontargeted metabolomic analysis to characterize changes in a broad array of hormones, cytokines, growth factors, and metabolites during treatment of severe childhood malnutrition. Children aged 6 months to 5 years were studied at presentation to Mulago Hospital and during inpatient therapy with milk-based formulas and outpatient supplementation with ready-to-use food. We assessed the relationship between baseline hormone and metabolite levels and subsequent mortality. Seventy-seven patients were enrolled in the study; a subset was followed up from inpatient treatment to the outpatient clinic. Inpatient and outpatient therapies increased weight/height z scores and induced striking changes in the levels of fatty acids, amino acids, acylcarnitines, inflammatory cytokines, and various hormones including leptin, insulin, GH, ghrelin, cortisol, IGF-I, glucagon-like peptide-1, and peptide YY. A total of 12.2% of the patients died during hospitalization; the major biochemical factor predicting mortality was a low level of leptin (P = .0002), a marker of adipose tissue reserve and a critical modulator of immune function. We have used metabolomic analysis to provide a comprehensive hormonal and metabolic profile of severely malnourished children at presentation and during nutritional rehabilitation. Our findings suggest that fatty acid metabolism plays a central role in the adaptation to acute malnutrition and that low levels of the adipose tissue hormone leptin associate with, and may predict, mortality prior to and during treatment.

Severe Acute Malnutrition in Childhood: Hormonal and Metabolic Status at Presentation, Response to Treatment, and Predictors of Mortality

PubMed Central

Bartz, Sarah; Mody, Aaloke; Hornik, Christoph; Bain, James; Muehlbauer, Michael; Kiyimba, Tonny; Kiboneka, Elizabeth; Stevens, Robert; Bartlett, John; St Peter, John V.; Newgard, Christopher B.

2014-01-01

Objective: Malnutrition is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. To identify and target those at highest risk, there is a critical need to characterize biomarkers that predict complications prior to and during treatment. Methods: We used targeted and nontargeted metabolomic analysis to characterize changes in a broad array of hormones, cytokines, growth factors, and metabolites during treatment of severe childhood malnutrition. Children aged 6 months to 5 years were studied at presentation to Mulago Hospital and during inpatient therapy with milk-based formulas and outpatient supplementation with ready-to-use food. We assessed the relationship between baseline hormone and metabolite levels and subsequent mortality. Results: Seventy-seven patients were enrolled in the study; a subset was followed up from inpatient treatment to the outpatient clinic. Inpatient and outpatient therapies increased weight/height z scores and induced striking changes in the levels of fatty acids, amino acids, acylcarnitines, inflammatory cytokines, and various hormones including leptin, insulin, GH, ghrelin, cortisol, IGF-I, glucagon-like peptide-1, and peptide YY. A total of 12.2% of the patients died during hospitalization; the major biochemical factor predicting mortality was a low level of leptin (P = .0002), a marker of adipose tissue reserve and a critical modulator of immune function. Conclusions: We have used metabolomic analysis to provide a comprehensive hormonal and metabolic profile of severely malnourished children at presentation and during nutritional rehabilitation. Our findings suggest that fatty acid metabolism plays a central role in the adaptation to acute malnutrition and that low levels of the adipose tissue hormone leptin associate with, and may predict, mortality prior to and during treatment. PMID:24606092

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland Study of Large Bowel Obstruction Caused by Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Tekkis, Paris P.; Kinsman, Robin; Thompson, Michael R.; Stamatakis, Jeffrey D.

2004-01-01

Background: This study was designed to investigate the early outcomes after surgical treatment of malignant large bowel obstruction (MBO) and to identify risk factors affecting operative mortality. Methods: Data were prospectively collected from 1046 patients with MBO by 294 surgeons in 148 UK hospitals during a 12-month period from April 1998. A predictive model of in-hospital mortality was developed using a 3-level Bayesian logistic regression analysis. Results: The median age of patients was 73 years (interquartile range 64–80). Of the 989 patients having surgery, 91.7% underwent bowel resection with an overall mortality of 15.7%. The multilevel model used the following independent risk factors to predict mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.85 per 10 year increase), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (OR for American Society of Anesthesiologists grade I versus II,III,IV-V = 3.3,11.7,22.2), Dukes’ staging (OR for Dukes’ A versus B,C,D = 2.0, 2.1, 6.0), and mode of surgery (OR for scheduled versus urgent, emergency = 1.6, 2.3). A significant interhospital variability in operative mortality was evident with increasing age (variance = 0.004, SE = 0.001, P < 0.001). No detectable caseload effect was demonstrated between specialist colorectal and other general surgeons. Conclusions: Using prognostic models, it was possible to develop a risk-stratification index that accurately predicted survival in patients presenting with malignant large bowel obstruction. The methodology and model for risk adjusted survival can set the reference point for more accurate and reliable comparative analysis and be used as an adjunct to the process of informed consent. PMID:15213621

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P < 0.001), serum sodium level (OR, 0.939; P = 0.029), and neutrophil count (OR, 1.000; P = 0.021). For prediction of mortality at predefined time points (28-day and 90-day) in patients with ACLF, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic were significantly greater for the CLIF-C ACLFs than for Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-sodium scores. Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome play an important role in the development of alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Incidence, Patterns, and Factors Predicting Mortality of Abdominal Injuries in Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Gad, Mohammad A; Saber, Aly; Farrag, Shereif; Shams, Mohamed E; Ellabban, Goda M

2012-01-01

Background: Abdominal trauma is a major public health problem for all nations and all socioeconomic strata. Aim: This study was designed to determine the incidence and patterns of abdominal injuries in trauma patients. Materials and Methods: We classified and identified the incidence and subtype of abdominal injuries and associated trauma, and identified variables related to morbidity and mortality. Results: Abdominal trauma was present in 248 of 300 cases; 172 patients with blunt abdominal trauma and 76 with penetrating. The most frequent type of abdominal trauma was blunt trauma; its most common cause was motor vehicle accident. Among patients with penetrating abdominal trauma, the most common cause was stabbing. Most abdominal trauma patients presented with other injuries, especially patients with blunt abdominal trauma. Mortality was higher among penetrating abdominal trauma patients. Conclusions: Type of abdominal trauma, associated injuries, and Revised Trauma Score are independent risk factors for mortality in abdominal trauma patients. PMID:22454826

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

Decoy receptor 3, a novel inflammatory marker, and mortality in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Hung, Szu-Chun; Hsu, Ta-Wei; Lin, Yao-Ping; Tarng, Der-Cherng

2012-08-01

Inflammation is closely associated with cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of mortality in patients with CKD. Serum decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) is a member of the TNF receptor superfamily. CKD patients have higher levels of DcR3 than the general population, but whether DcR3 predicts mortality in CKD patients on hemodialysis has not been explored. DcR3 levels were measured in 316 prevalent hemodialysis patients who were followed up from November 1, 2004, to June 30, 2009, for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The baseline DcR3 concentration showed a strong positive correlation with inflammatory markers including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1). During a follow-up period of 54 months, 90 patients died (34 cardiovascular deaths). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed higher cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with higher DcR3 levels. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of the highest versus lowest tertiles of DcR3 were 2.8 (1.1-7.3; P for trend=0.04) for cardiovascular mortality and 2.1 (1.1-3.7; P for trend=0.02) for all-cause mortality, respectively. Based on the minimal increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.79 to 0.80, the addition of DcR3 to established risk factors including VCAM-1, albumin, and IL-6 does not improve the prediction of mortality. Higher DcR3 levels strongly correlate with inflammation and independently predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in CKD patients on hemodialysis.

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

Climate-induced mortality of "dark needle conifer" in Siberian taiga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav; Im, Sergei; Petrov, Ilya

2017-04-01

Within Siberia fir (Abies sibirica) and Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) (so called "dark needle conifers", DNC) mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Siberian pine and fir showed decreased radial growth increment within southern Siberia since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands in southern Siberia. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In particular, bark beetle Polygraphus proximus made a strong input on the fir mortality. In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus sylvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Work-based predictors of mortality: a 20-year follow-up of healthy employees.

PubMed

Shirom, Arie; Toker, Sharon; Alkaly, Yasmin; Jacobson, Orit; Balicer, Ran

2011-05-01

This study investigated the effects of the Job-Demand-Control-Support (JDC-S) model's components, workload, control, peer and supervisor social support, on the risk of all-cause mortality. Also examined was the expectation that the above work-based components interact in predicting all-cause mortality. The study's hypotheses were tested after controlling for physiological variables and health behaviors known to be risk factors for mortality. The design used was prospective. Baseline data were obtained from healthy employees (N = 820) who underwent periodic health examinations in 1988. Follow-up data on all-cause mortality were obtained from the participants' computerized medical file, kept by their HMO, in 2008. The baseline data covered socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological risk factors in addition to the components of the JDC-S model. During the period of follow-up, 53 deaths were recorded. Data were analyzed using Cox regressions. Only one main effect was found: the risk of mortality was significantly lower for those reporting high levels of peer social support. The study found two significant interactions. Higher levels of control reduced the risk of mortality for the men and increased it for the women. The main effect of peer social support on mortality risk was significantly higher for those whose baseline age ranged from 38 to 43 but not for the older than 43 or the younger than 38 participants. Peer social support is a protective factor, reducing the risk of mortality, while perceived control reduces the risk of mortality among men but increases it among women. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Predicting outcome of status epilepticus.

PubMed

Leitinger, M; Kalss, G; Rohracher, A; Pilz, G; Novak, H; Höfler, J; Deak, I; Kuchukhidze, G; Dobesberger, J; Wakonig, A; Trinka, E

2015-08-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is a frequent neurological emergency complicated by high mortality and often poor functional outcome in survivors. The aim of this study was to review available clinical scores to predict outcome. Literature review. PubMed Search terms were "score", "outcome", and "status epilepticus" (April 9th 2015). Publications with abstracts available in English, no other language restrictions, or any restrictions concerning investigated patients were included. Two scores were identified: "Status Epilepticus Severity Score--STESS" and "Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE--EMSE". A comprehensive comparison of test parameters concerning performance, options, and limitations was performed. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE allows detailed individualization of risk factors and is significantly superior to STESS in a retrospective explorative study. In particular, EMSE is very good at detection of good and bad outcome, whereas STESS detecting bad outcome is limited by a ceiling effect and uncertainty of correct cutoff value. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE can be adapted to different regions in the world and to advances in medicine, as new data emerge. In addition, we designed a reporting standard for status epilepticus to enhance acquisition and communication of outcome relevant data. A data acquisition sheet used from patient admission in emergency room, from the EEG lab to intensive care unit, is provided for optimized data collection. Status Epilepticus Severity Score is easy to perform and predicts bad outcome, but has a low predictive value for good outcomes. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE is superior to STESS in predicting good or bad outcome but needs marginally more time to perform. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE may prove very useful for risk stratification in interventional studies and is recommended for individual outcome prediction. Prospective validation in different cohorts is needed for EMSE, whereas STESS needs further validation in cohorts with a wider range of etiologies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Status Epilepticus". Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Baseline and pre-operative 1-year mortality risk factors in a cohort of 509 hip fracture patients consecutively admitted to a co-managed orthogeriatric unit (FONDA Cohort).

PubMed

Menéndez-Colino, Rocío; Alarcon, Teresa; Gotor, Pilar; Queipo, Rocío; Ramírez-Martín, Raquel; Otero, Angel; González-Montalvo, Juan I

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the patient characteristics that predict 1-year mortality after a hip fracture (HF). All patients admitted consecutively with fragility HF during 1 year in a co-managed orthogeriatric unit of a university hospital (FONDA cohort) were assesed. Baseline and admission demographic, clinical, functional, analytical and body-composition variables were collected in the first 72 h after admission. A protocol designed to minimize the consequences of the HF was applied. One year after the fracture patients or their carers were contacted by telephone to ascertain their vital status. A total of 509 patients with a mean age of 85.6 years were included. One-year mortality was 23.2%. The final multivariate model included 8 independent mortality risk factors: age >85 years, baseline functional impairment in basic activities of daily living, low body mass index, cognitive impairment, heart disease, low hand-grip strength, anaemia at admission, and secondary hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency. The association of several of these factors greatly increased mortality risk, with an OR (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.372 (3.227-8.806) in patients with 4 to 5 factors, and an OR (95% CI) of 11.097 (6.432-19.144) in those with 6 or more factors. In addition to previously known factors (such as age, impairment in basic activities of daily living, cognitive impairment, malnutrition and anaemia at admission), other factors, such as muscle strength and hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency, are associated with greater 1-year mortality after a HF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology and Mortality of Liver Abscess in End-Stage Renal Disease Dialysis Patients: Taiwan National Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Huang, Po-Chang; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Yang, Chun-Ming; Chu, Chin-Chen; Chio, Chung-Ching; Chang, Fu-Lin; Chien, Chih-Chiang

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives To determine the incidence rates and mortality of liver abscess in ESRD patients on dialysis. Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements Using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, we collected data from all ESRD patients who initiated dialysis between 2000 and 2006. Patients were followed until death, end of dialysis, or December 31, 2008. Predictors of liver abscess and mortality were identified using Cox models. Results Of the 53,249 incident dialysis patients identified, 447 were diagnosed as having liver abscesses during the follow-up period (224/100,000 person-years). The cumulative incidence rate of liver abscess was 0.3%, 1.1%, and 1.5% at 1 year, 5 years, and 7 years, respectively. Elderly patients and patients on peritoneal dialysis had higher incidence rates. The baseline comorbidities of diabetes mellitus, polycystic kidney disease, malignancy, chronic liver disease, biliary tract disease, or alcoholism predicted development of liver abscess. Overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. Conclusions The incidence of liver abscess is high among ESRD dialysis patients. In addition to the well known risk factors of liver abscess, two other important risk factors, peritoneal dialysis and polycystic kidney disease, were found to predict liver abscess in ESRD dialysis patients. PMID:24551077

Is suicide mortality associated with meteorological and socio-economic factors? An ecological study in a city in Taiwan with a high suicide rate.

PubMed

Wu, Ya Wen; Chen, Chih Ken; Wang, Liang Jen

2014-06-01

Keelung City has the highest suicide rate in Taiwan. This study aimed to determine whether meteorological and socio-economic factors are associated with suicide mortality in Keelung City, by gender and by means of suicide. Data on suicides between January 2006 and December 2010 were provided by the Department of Health, Keelung City Government. The suicide victims were categorized into non-violent and violent groups, based on the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision. Meteorological data were obtained from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. Socio-economic data were gathered from the Accounting and Statistics Office, Keelung City Government. Multiple linear regression analysis with backward elimination was performed to determine the model that was most effective in predicting dependent variables. During the 5-year study period, the overall suicide mortality rate was negatively associated with ambient temperature. Male suicide mortality was positively correlated with unemployment, and negatively correlated with ambient temperature, barometric pressure, rainy days, family income and number of holidays. Female suicide mortality and violent suicide mortality were not significantly correlated with any meteorological or socio-economic factors. Non-violent suicide mortality was positively correlated with unemployment, and negatively correlated with ambient temperature, barometric pressure and family income. Suicide is a complex psychopathological phenomenon. Further studies with individual data are warranted to confirm how meteorological and socio-economic conditions influence ones' suicidal behaviour.

The Predictive Value of Indocyanine Green Clearance in Future Liver Remnant for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Following Hepatectomy with Extrahepatic Bile Duct Resection.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

2016-06-01

Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most common complications following major hepatectomy. The preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) function is critical to predict the incidence of PHLF. To determine the efficacy of the plasma clearance rate of indocyanine green clearance of FLR (ICGK-F) in predicting PHLF in cases of highly invasive hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. Five hundred and eighty-five patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection, from 2002 to 2014 in a single institution, were evaluated. Among them, 192 patients (33 %) had PHLF. The predictive value of ICGK-F for PHLF was determined and compared with other risk factors for PHLF. The incidence of PHLF was inversely proportional to the level of ICGK-F. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, ICGK-F, combined pancreatoduodenectomy, the operation time, and blood loss were identified as independent risk factors of PHLF. The risk of PHLF increased according to the decrement of ICGK-F (the odds ratio of ICGK-F for each decrement of 0.01 was 1.22; 95 % confidence interval 1.12-1.33; P < 0.001). Low ICGK-F was also identified as an independent risk factor predicting the postoperative mortality. ICGK-F is useful in predicting the PHLF and mortality in patients undergoing major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. This criterion may be useful for highly invasive hepatectomy, such as that with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

Hopelessness and cognitive impairment are risk markers for mortality in systolic heart failure patients.

PubMed

Byrne, Claire J; Toukhsati, Samia R; Toia, Deidre; O'Halloran, Paul D; Hare, David L

2018-06-01

Depression exacerbates the burden of heart failure and independently predicts mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate which specific symptoms of depression predict all-cause mortality in systolic heart failure patients. Consecutive outpatients with heart failure and impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), attending an Australian metropolitan heart function clinic between 2001 and 2011, were enrolled. The Cardiac Depression Scale (CDS) was completed as a component of usual care. Baseline clinical characteristics were drawn from hospital databases. The primary end-point was all-cause mortality, obtained from the Australian National Death Index. A total of 324 patients (68.5% male) were included (mean age at enrolment = 66.8 ± 14.36 years), with a median follow-up time of 6.7 years (95% CI 5.97-7.39) and a mortality rate of 50% by the census date. Mean LVEF = 31.0 ± 11.31%, with 25% having NYHA functional class of III or IV. Factor analysis of the CDS extracted six symptom dimensions: Hopelessness, Cognitive Impairment, Anhedonia/Mood, Irritability, Worry, and Sleep Disturbance. Cox regression analyses identified Hopelessness (HR 1.024, 95% CI 1.004-1.045, p = .018) and Cognitive Impairment (HR 1.048, 95% CI 1.005-1.093, p = .028) as independent risk markers of all-cause mortality, following adjustment of known prognostic clinical factors. Hopelessness and cognitive impairment are stronger risk markers for all-cause mortality than other symptoms of depression in systolic heart failure. These data will allow more specific risk assessment and potentially new targets for more effective treatment and management of depression in this population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality after Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Causality and Validation of a Prediction Model.

PubMed

Abulhasan, Yasser B; Alabdulraheem, Najayeb; Simoneau, Gabrielle; Angle, Mark R; Teitelbaum, Jeanne

2018-04-01

To evaluate primary causes of death after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and externally validate the HAIR score, a prognostication tool, in a single academic institution. We reviewed all patients with SAH admitted to our neuro-intensive care unit between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. The HAIR score predictors were Hunt and Hess grade at treatment decision, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding within 24 hours. Validation of the HAIR score was characterized with the receiver operating curve, the area under the curve, and a calibration plot. Among 434 patients with SAH, in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. Of the 61 mortalities, 54 (88.5%) had a neurologic cause of death or withdrawal of care and 7 (11.5%) had cardiac death. Median time from SAH to death was 6 days. The main causes of death were effect of the initial hemorrhage (26.2%), rebleeding (23%) and refractory cerebral edema (19.7%). Factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis were age, Hunt and Hess grade, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Maximum lumen size was also a significant risk factor after aneurysmal SAH. The HAIR score had a satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The in-hospital mortality is lower than in previous reports, attesting to the continuing improvement of our institutional SAH care. The major causes are the same as in previous reports. Despite a different therapeutic protocol, the HAIR score showed good discrimination and could be a useful tool for predicting mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Mortality in African Americans With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor, Coronary Artery Calcium, and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein.

PubMed

Hayek, Salim S; Divers, Jasmin; Raad, Mohamad; Xu, Jianzhao; Bowden, Donald W; Tracy, Melissa; Reiser, Jochen; Freedman, Barry I

2018-05-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease; however, outcomes in individual patients vary. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a bone marrow-derived signaling molecule associated with adverse cardiovascular and renal outcomes in many populations. We characterized the determinants of suPAR in African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus and assessed whether levels were useful for predicting mortality beyond clinical characteristics, coronary artery calcium (CAC), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). We measured plasma suPAR levels in 500 African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus enrolled in the African American-Diabetes Heart Study. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for clinical characteristics, CAC, and hs-CRP to examine the association between suPAR and all-cause mortality. Last, we report the change in C-statistics comparing the additive values of suPAR, hs-CRP, and CAC to clinical models for prediction of mortality. The suPAR levels were independently associated with female sex, smoking, insulin use, decreased kidney function, albuminuria, and CAC. After a median 6.8-year follow-up, a total of 68 deaths (13.6%) were recorded. In a model incorporating suPAR, CAC, and hs-CRP, only suPAR was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.63-4.34). Addition of suPAR to a baseline clinical model significantly improved the C-statistic for all-cause death (Δ0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.10), whereas addition of CAC or hs-CRP did not. In African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus, suPAR was strongly associated with mortality and improved risk discrimination metrics beyond traditional risk factors, CAC and hs-CRP. Studies addressing the clinical usefulness of measuring suPAR concentrations are warranted. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

Patient demographics, insurance status, race, and ethnicity as predictors of morbidity and mortality after spine trauma: a study using the National Trauma Data Bank.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Andrew J; Belmont, Philip J; See, Aaron A; Bader, Julia O; Bono, Christopher M

2013-12-01

Predictors of complications and mortality after spine trauma are underexplored. At present, no study exists capable of predicting the impact of demographic factors, injury-specific predictors, race, ethnicity, and insurance status on morbidity and mortality after spine trauma. This study endeavored to describe the impact of patient demographics, comorbidities, injury-specific factors, race/ethnicity, and insurance status on outcomes after spinal trauma using the National Sample Program (NSP) of the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). The weighted sample of 75,351 incidents of spine trauma in the NTDB was used to develop a predictive model for important factors associated with mortality, postinjury complications, length of hospital stay, intensive care unit (ICU) days, and time on a ventilator. A weighted sample of 75,351 incidents of spine trauma as contained in the NTDB. Mortality, postinjury complications, length of hospital stay, ICU days, and time on a ventilator as reported in the NTDB. The 2008 NSP of the NTDB was queried to identify patients sustaining spine trauma. Patient demographics, race/ethnicity, insurance status, comorbidities, injury-specific factors, and outcomes were recorded, and a national estimate model was derived. Unadjusted differences in baseline characteristics between racial/ethnic groups and insurance status were evaluated using the t test for continuous variables and Wald chi-square analysis for categorical variables with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Weighted logistic regression was performed for categorical variables (mortality and risk of one or more complications), and weighted multiple linear regression analysis was used for continuous variables (length of hospital stay, ICU days, and ventilator time). Initial determinations were checked against a sensitivity analysis using imputed data. The weighted sample contained 75,351 incidents of spine trauma. The average age was 45.8 years. Sixty-four percent of the population was male, 9% was black/African American, 38% possessed private/commercial insurance, and 12.5% lacked insurance. The mortality rate was 6% and 16% sustained complications. Increased age, male gender, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and blood pressure at presentation were significant predictors of mortality, whereas age, male gender, other mechanism of injury, ISS, and blood pressure at presentation influenced the risk of one or more complications. Nonwhite and black/African American race increased risk of mortality, and lack of insurance increased mortality and decreased the number of hospital days, ICU days, and ventilator time. This is the first study to postulate predictors of morbidity and mortality after spinal trauma in a national model. Race/ethnicity and insurance status appear to be associated with greater risk of mortality after spine trauma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Low serum albumin may predict the need for gastric resection in patients with perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Seow, J G; Lim, Y R; Shelat, V G

2017-06-01

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a common surgical emergency and treatment involves omental patch repair (PR). Gastric resection (GR) is reserved for difficult pathologies. We audit the outcomes of GR at our institution and evaluate the pre-operative factors predicting the need for GR. This is a single-institution, retrospective study of patients with PPU who underwent surgery from 2004 to 2012. Demographics, clinical presentation and intra-operative findings were studied to identify factors predicting the need for GR in PPU. An audit of clinical outcomes and mortality for all patients with GR is reported. 537 (89.6 %) patients underwent PR and 62 (10.4 %) patients GR. Old age (p < 0.0001), female sex (p = 0.0123), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) usage (p = 0.0008), previous history of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) (p = 0.0159), low hemoglobin (p < 0.0001), low serum albumin (p < 0.0001), high serum creatinine (p = 0.0030), high urea (p = 0.0006) and large ulcer size (p < 0.0001) predict the need for GR. On multivariate analysis only low serum albumin (OR 5.57, 95 % CI 1.56-19.84, p = 0.008) predicted the need for GR. The presence of Helicobacter pylori infection was protective against GR (OR 0.25, 95 %CI 0.14-0.44, p < 0.0001). Morbidity and mortality of GR was 27.7 and 24.2 %, respectively. GR is needed in one in ten cases of PPU. Low serum albumin predicted the need for GR on multivariate analysis. Morbidity and mortality of GR remains high.

CREATION OF A MODEL TO PREDICT SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH REFRACTORY COELIAC DISEASE USING A MULTINATIONAL REGISTRY

PubMed Central

Rubio-Tapia, Alberto; Malamut, Georgia; Verbeek, Wieke H.M.; van Wanrooij, Roy L.J.; Leffler, Daniel A.; Niveloni, Sonia I.; Arguelles-Grande, Carolina; Lahr, Brian D.; Zinsmeister, Alan R.; Murray, Joseph A.; Kelly, Ciaran P.; Bai, Julio C.; Green, Peter H.; Daum, Severin; Mulder, Chris J.J.; Cellier, Christophe

2016-01-01

Background Refractory coeliac disease is a severe complication of coeliac disease with heterogeneous outcome. Aim To create a prognostic model to estimate survival of patients with refractory coeliac disease. Methods We evaluated predictors of 5-year mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression on subjects from a multinational registry. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to internally validate the individual factors and overall model performance. The mean of the estimated regression coefficients from 400 bootstrap models was used to derive a risk score for 5-year mortality. Results The multinational cohort was composed of 232 patients diagnosed with refractory coeliac disease across 7 centers (range of 11–63 cases per center). The median age was 53 years and 150 (64%) were women. A total of 51 subjects died during 5-year follow-up (cumulative 5-year all-cause mortality = 30%). From a multiple variable Cox proportional hazards model, the following variables were significantly associated with 5-year mortality: age at refractory coeliac disease diagnosis (per 20 year increase, hazard ratio = 2.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 3.55), abnormal intraepithelial lymphocytes (hazard ratio = 2.85; 95% confidence interval: 1.22, 6.62), and albumin (per 0.5 unit increase, hazard ratio = 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.85). A simple weighted 3-factor risk score was created to estimate 5-year survival. Conclusions Using data from a multinational registry and previously-reported risk factors, we create a prognostic model to predict 5-year mortality among patients with refractory coeliac disease. This new model may help clinicians to guide treatment and follow-up. PMID:27485029

Creation of a model to predict survival in patients with refractory coeliac disease using a multinational registry.

PubMed

Rubio-Tapia, A; Malamut, G; Verbeek, W H M; van Wanrooij, R L J; Leffler, D A; Niveloni, S I; Arguelles-Grande, C; Lahr, B D; Zinsmeister, A R; Murray, J A; Kelly, C P; Bai, J C; Green, P H; Daum, S; Mulder, C J J; Cellier, C

2016-10-01

Refractory coeliac disease is a severe complication of coeliac disease with heterogeneous outcome. To create a prognostic model to estimate survival of patients with refractory coeliac disease. We evaluated predictors of 5-year mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression on subjects from a multinational registry. Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the individual factors and overall model performance. The mean of the estimated regression coefficients from 400 bootstrap models was used to derive a risk score for 5-year mortality. The multinational cohort was composed of 232 patients diagnosed with refractory coeliac disease across seven centres (range of 11-63 cases per centre). The median age was 53 years and 150 (64%) were women. A total of 51 subjects died during a 5-year follow-up (cumulative 5-year all-cause mortality = 30%). From a multiple variable Cox proportional hazards model, the following variables were significantly associated with 5-year mortality: age at refractory coeliac disease diagnosis (per 20 year increase, hazard ratio = 2.21; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.38-3.55), abnormal intraepithelial lymphocytes (hazard ratio = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.22-6.62), and albumin (per 0.5 unit increase, hazard ratio = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.85). A simple weighted three-factor risk score was created to estimate 5-year survival. Using data from a multinational registry and previously reported risk factors, we create a prognostic model to predict 5-year mortality among patients with refractory coeliac disease. This new model may help clinicians to guide treatment and follow-up. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clonal differences in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia-associated mortality.

PubMed

Recker, Mario; Laabei, Maisem; Toleman, Michelle S; Reuter, Sandra; Saunderson, Rebecca B; Blane, Beth; Török, M Estee; Ouadi, Khadija; Stevens, Emily; Yokoyama, Maho; Steventon, Joseph; Thompson, Luke; Milne, Gregory; Bayliss, Sion; Bacon, Leann; Peacock, Sharon J; Massey, Ruth C

2017-10-01

The bacterium Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen for which the emergence of antibiotic resistance is a global public health concern. Infection severity, and in particular bacteraemia-associated mortality, has been attributed to several host-related factors, such as age and the presence of comorbidities. The role of the bacterium in infection severity is less well understood, as it is complicated by the multifaceted nature of bacterial virulence, which has so far prevented a robust mapping between genotype, phenotype and infection outcome. To investigate the role of bacterial factors in contributing to bacteraemia-associated mortality, we phenotyped a collection of sequenced clinical S. aureus isolates from patients with bloodstream infections, representing two globally important clonal types, CC22 and CC30. By adopting a genome-wide association study approach we identified and functionally verified several genetic loci that affect the expression of cytolytic toxicity and biofilm formation. By analysing the pooled data comprising bacterial genotype and phenotype together with clinical metadata within a machine-learning framework, we found significant clonal differences in the determinants most predictive of poor infection outcome. Whereas elevated cytolytic toxicity in combination with low levels of biofilm formation was predictive of an increased risk of mortality in infections by strains of a CC22 background, these virulence-specific factors had little influence on mortality rates associated with CC30 infections. Our results therefore suggest that different clones may have adopted different strategies to overcome host responses and cause severe pathology. Our study further demonstrates the use of a combined genomics and data analytic approach to enhance our understanding of bacterial pathogenesis at the individual level, which will be an important step towards personalized medicine and infectious disease management.

Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

2016-12-01

Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On-arrival measures better predicted early mortality compared with late or total mortality. A further exploration of risk factors from the dairy farm of origin for veal calf mortality would serve to improve the productivity and welfare of calves of both sexes born on dairy farms. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What is the best ST-segment recovery parameter to predict clinical outcome and myocardial infarct size? Amplitude, speed, and completeness of ST-segment recovery after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Kuijt, Wichert J; Green, Cindy L; Verouden, Niels J W; Haeck, Joost D E; Tzivoni, Dan; Koch, Karel T; Stone, Gregg W; Lansky, Alexandra J; Broderick, Samuel; Tijssen, Jan G P; de Winter, Robbert J; Roe, Matthew T; Krucoff, Mitchell W

ST-segment recovery (STR) is a strong mechanistic correlate of infarct size (IS) and outcome in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Characterizing measures of speed, amplitude, and completeness of STR may extend the use of this noninvasive biomarker. Core laboratory continuous 24-h 12-lead Holter ECG monitoring, IS by single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), and 30-day mortality of 2 clinical trials of primary percutaneous coronary intervention in STEMI were combined. Multiple ST measures (STR at last contrast injection (LC) measured from peak value; 30, 60, 90, 120, and 240min, residual deviation; time to steady ST recovery; and the 3-h area under the time trend curve [ST-AUC] from LC) were univariably correlated with IS and predictive of mortality. After multivariable adjustment for ST-parameters and GRACE risk factors, STR at 240min remained an additive predictor of mortality. Early STR, residual deviation, and ST-AUC remained associated with IS. Multiple parameters that quantify the speed, amplitude, and completeness of STR predict mortality and correlate with IS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Association between anxiety and depression in patients with acute coronary syndromes due to financial crisis.

PubMed

Lampropoulos, Kostandinos; Kavvouras, Charalampos; Megalou, Aikaterini; Tsikouri, Pinelopi; Kafkala, Chrysanthi; Derka, Dimitra; Bonou, Maria; Barbetseas, John

2016-01-01

The effect of anxiety and depression on patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) warrants investigation, especially during periods of economic crisis. To investigate the relation between anxiety and depression in patients presenting with ACS due to financial crisis and to investigate whether these two entities could predict long-term cardiovascular mortality. Anxiety and depression symptoms were assessed in 350 patients (210 men) presenting with ACS, with 70 (20%) patients showing elevated scores (Hellenic Heart Failure Protocol). Over a mean follow-up of 48 months there were 36 (10%) cardiovascular deaths. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other prognostic factors (including age, sex, marital status, creatinine levels, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, previous hospitalisation, and baseline medications) showed that elevated anxiety and depression scores significantly predicted cardiovascular mortality (primary outcome) and all-cause mortality. Elevated anxiety and depression symptoms are related to cardiovascular mortality due probably to financial crisis, even after adjustment for other prognostic indicators in patients with ACS, who received optimised medical treatment.

The interaction between individualism and wellbeing in predicting mortality: Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe.

PubMed

Okely, Judith A; Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R

2018-02-01

The link between greater wellbeing and longevity is well documented. The aim of the current study was to test whether this association is consistent across individualistic and collectivistic cultures. The sample consisted of 13,596 participants from 11 European countries, each of which was assigned an individualism score according to Hofstede et al.'s (Cultures and organizations: software of the mind, McGraw Hill, New York, 2010) cultural dimension of individualism. We tested whether individualism moderated the cross-sectional association between wellbeing and self-rated health or the longitudinal association between wellbeing and mortality risk. Our analysis revealed a significant interaction between individualism and wellbeing such that the association between wellbeing and self-rated health or risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease was stronger in more individualistic countries. However, the interaction between wellbeing and individualism was not significant in analysis predicting all-cause mortality. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm our finding and to explore the factors responsible for this culturally dependent effect.

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

PubMed

Pollack, Murray M; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T; Clark, Amy E; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J L; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J Michael

2015-08-01

Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites. Randomly selected PICU patients from their first PICU admission. None. Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from preillness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range, 2.6-7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score) in dichotomous (survival and death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, and death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores and then decreased at the highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline Functional Status Scale, and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score. The three-level goodness-of-fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p > 0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (vs chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality.

High blood glucose independent of pre-existing diabetic status predicts mortality in patients initiating peritoneal dialysis therapy.

PubMed

Chung, Sung Hee; Han, Dong Cheol; Noh, Hyunjin; Jeon, Jin Seok; Kwon, Soon Hyo; Lindholm, Bengt; Lee, Hi Bahl

2015-06-01

Poor glycemic control associates with increased mortality in diabetic (DM) dialysis patients, but it is less well established whether high blood glucose (BG) independent of pre-existing diabetic status associates with mortality in dialysis patients. We assessed factors affecting BG at the start of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and its mortality-predictive impact in Korean PD patients. In 174 PD patients (55 % males, 56 % DM), BG, nutritional status, comorbidity (CMD), and residual renal function (RRF) were assessed in conjunction with dialysis initiation. Determinants of BG and its association with mortality after a mean follow-up period of 30 ± 24 months were analyzed. On Cox proportional hazards analysis comprising all patients, old age, high CMD score, presence of protein energy wasting, and low serum albumin (Salb) concentration were independent predictors of mortality but not a high-BG level, while in patients without pre-existing diabetic status, high BG, together with old age and high CMD score, was an independent predictor of mortality. After adjustment for age, CMD score, and Salb, the risk ratio for mortality increased by 12 % per 1 mg/dL increase in BG in the non-DM patients. Patient survival in patients without pre-existing diabetic status with high BG did not differ from DM patients, but the survival of patients with high BG was significantly lower than in patients with low BG. In patients without pre-existing diabetic status, in multiple regression analysis, high BG at initiation of PD associated with high age, high body mass index, and low RRF. High blood glucose at initiation of PD associated with an increased mortality risk in PD patients without pre-existing diabetic status suggesting that blood glucose monitoring and surveillance of factors contributing to poor glycemic control are warranted in patients initiating PD therapy.

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Ma, Qing-Bian; Fu, Yuan-Wei; Feng, Lu; Zhai, Qiang-Rong; Liang, Yang; Wu, Meng; Zheng, Ya-An

2017-07-05

Since the 1980s, severity of illness scoring systems has gained increasing popularity in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Physicians used them for predicting mortality and assessing illness severity in clinical trials. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) and its customized equation for Australasia (Australasia SAPS 3, SAPS 3 [AUS]) in predicting clinical prognosis and hospital mortality in emergency ICU (EICU). A retrospective analysis of the EICU including 463 patients was conducted between January 2013 and December 2015 in the EICU of Peking University Third Hospital. The worst physiological data of enrolled patients were collected within 24 h after admission to calculate SAPS 3 score and predicted mortality by regression equation. Discrimination between survivals and deaths was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test through calculating the ratio of observed-to-expected numbers of deaths which is known as the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). A total of 463 patients were enrolled in the study, and the observed hospital mortality was 26.1% (121/463). The patients enrolled were divided into survivors and nonsurvivors. Age, SAPS 3 score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Score II (APACHE II), and predicted mortality were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than survivors (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01). The AUC (95% confidence intervals [CI s]) for SAPS 3 score was 0.836 (0.796-0.876). The maximum of Youden's index, cutoff, sensitivity, and specificity of SAPS 3 score were 0.526%, 70.5 points, 66.9%, and 85.7%, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for SAPS 3 demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 10.25, P = 0.33, SMR (95% CI) = 0.63 (0.52-0.76). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for SAPS 3 (AUS) demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 9.55, P = 0.38, SMR (95% CI) = 0.68 (0.57-0.81). Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted for biochemical variables that were probably correlated to prognosis. Eventually, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), albumin,lactate and free triiodothyronine (FT3) were selected as independent risk factors for predicting prognosis. The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

Personality and mortality after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Denollet, J; Sys, S U; Brutsaert, D L

1995-01-01

Previous research showed: a) emotional distress is a risk factor for mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) and b) emotional distress is linked to stable personality traits. In this study, we examined the role of these personality traits in mortality after MI. Subjects were 105 men, 45 to 60 years of age, who survived a recent MI. Baseline assessment included biomedical and psychosocial risk factors, as well as each patient's personality type. After 2 to 5 (mean, 3.8) years of follow-up, 15 patients (14%) had died. Rate of death for patients with a distressed personality type (11/28 = 39%) was significantly greater than that for patients with other personality types (4/77 = 5%) (p < .0001). Patients with this personality type tend simultaneously to experience distress and inhibit expression of emotions. Low exercise tolerance, previous MI (p < .005), anterior MI, smoking, and age (p < .05) were also associated with mortality. A logistic regression model including these biomedical factors had a sensitivity for mortality of only 27%. The addition of distressed personality type in this model more than doubled its sensitivity. Of note, among patients with poor physical health, those with a distressed personality type had a five-fold mortality risk (p < .005). Consistent with the findings of other investigators, depression (p < .005), life stress, use of benzodiazepines (p < .01), and somatization (p < .05) were also related to post-MI mortality. These psychosocial risk factors were more prevalent in the distressed personality type than in the other personality types (p < .001-.05). Multiple logistic regression indicated that these psychosocial factors did not add to the predictive value of the distressed personality type. Hence, an important personality effect was observed despite the low power. This suggests that personality traits may play a role in the detrimental effect of emotional distress in MI patients.

Adverse cardiac events after orthotopic liver transplantation: a cross-sectional study in 389 consecutive patients.

PubMed

Nicolau-Raducu, Ramona; Gitman, Marina; Ganier, Donald; Loss, George E; Cohen, Ari J; Patel, Hamang; Girgrah, Nigel; Sekar, Krish; Nossaman, Bobby

2015-01-01

Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines caution that preoperative noninvasive cardiac tests may have poor predictive value for detecting coronary artery disease in liver transplant candidates. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the role of clinical predictor variables for early and late cardiac morbidity and mortality and the predictive values of noninvasive cardiac tests for perioperative cardiac events in a high-risk liver transplant population. In all, 389 adult recipients were retrospectively analyzed for a median follow-up time of 3.4 years (range = 2.3-4.4 years). Overall survival was 83%. During the first year after transplantation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 15.2% and 2.8%. In patients who survived the first year, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 3.9% and 2%, with cardiovascular etiology as the third leading cause of death. Dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) and single-photon emission computed tomography had respective sensitivities of 9% and 57%, specificities of 98% and 75%, positive predictive values of 33% and 28%, and negative predictive values of 89% and 91% for predicting early cardiac events. A rate blood pressure product less than 12,000 with DSE was associated with an increased risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation. Correspondence analysis identified a statistical association between nonalcoholic steatohepatitis/cryptogenic cirrhosis and postoperative myocardial ischemia. Logistic regression identified 3 risk factors for postoperative acute coronary syndrome: age, history of coronary artery disease, and pretransplant requirement for vasopressors. Multivariable analysis showed statistical associations of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and the development of acute kidney injury as risk factors for overall cardiac-related mortality. These findings may help in identifying high-risk patients and may lead to the development of better cardiac tests. © 2014 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival without New Morbidity from Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T.; Clark, Amy E.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L.; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E.; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J. Michael

2015-01-01

Objective Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011 to April 7, 2013. Setting and Patients General and cardiac/cardiovascular pediatric intensive care units at 7 sites. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale (FSS), and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from pre-illness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range 2.6% to 7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range 1.3% – 5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p<0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the PRISM III score) in dichotomous (survival, death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing PRISM III scores and then decreased at the highest PRISM III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline FSS and the PRISM III score. The three-level goodness of fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p>0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface (VUS) was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (versus chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. Conclusions New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies, and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality. PMID:25985385

Does inclusion of education and marital status improve SCORE performance in central and eastern europe and former soviet union? findings from MONICA and HAPIEE cohorts.

PubMed

Vikhireva, Olga; Broda, Grazyna; Kubinova, Ruzena; Malyutina, Sofia; Pająk, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Skodova, Zdena; Simonova, Galina; Bobak, Martin; Pikhart, Hynek

2014-01-01

The SCORE scale predicts the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), due to high CVD mortality rates in these countries. Given the pronounced social gradient in cardiovascular mortality in the region, it is important to consider social factors in the CVD risk prediction. We investigated whether adding education and marital status to SCORE benefits its prognostic performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. The WHO MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) cohorts from the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s (577 atherosclerotic CVD deaths among 14,969 participants with non-missing data). The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002-05 (395 atherosclerotic CVD deaths in 19,900 individuals with non-missing data). In MONICA and HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline strongly and significantly predicted fatal CVD both before and after adjustment for education and marital status. After controlling for SCORE, lower education and non-married status were significantly associated with CVD mortality in some samples. SCORE extension by these additional risk factors only slightly improved indices of calibration and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement <5% in men and ≤1% in women). Extending SCORE by education and marital status failed to substantially improve its prognostic performance in population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

PubMed

Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2014-05-01

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ACUTE PANCREATITIS GRAVITY PREDICTIVE FACTORS: WHICH AND WHEN TO USE THEM?

PubMed Central

FERREIRA, Alexandre de Figueiredo; BARTELEGA, Janaina Alves; URBANO, Hugo Corrêa de Andrade; de SOUZA, Iure Kalinine Ferraz

2015-01-01

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis has as its main causes lithiasic biliary disease and alcohol abuse. Most of the time, the disease shows a self-limiting course, with a rapid recovery, only with supportive treatment. However, in a significant percentage of cases, it runs with important local and systemic complications associated with high mortality rates. Aim: To present the current state of the use of these prognostic factors (predictive scores) of gravity, as the time of application, complexity and specificity. Method: A non-systematic literature review through 28 papers, with emphasis on 13 articles published in indexed journals between 2008 and 2013 using Lilacs, Medline, Pubmed. Results: Several clinical, laboratory analysis, molecular and image variables can predict the development of severe acute pancreatitis. Some of them by themselves can be determinant to the progression of the disease to a more severe form, such as obesity, hematocrit, age and smoking. Hematocrit with a value lower than 44% and serum urea lower than 20 mg/dl, both at admission, appear as risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. But the PCR differentiates mild cases of serious ones in the first 24 h. Multifactorial scores measured on admission and during the first 48 h of hospitalization have been used in intensive care units, being the most ones used: Ranson, Apache II, Glasgow, Iget and Saps II. Conclusion: Acute pancreatitis is a disease in which several prognostic factors are employed being useful in predicting mortality and on the development of the severe form. It is suggested that the association of a multifactorial score, especially the Saps II associated with Iget, may increase the prognosis accuracy. However, the professional's preferences, the experience on the service as well as the available tools, are factors that have determined the choice of the most suitable predictive score. PMID:26537149

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrova, IIya A.; Golyukov, Alexei S.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Yagunov, Mikhail N.

2016-01-01

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called "dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Golyukov, Alexei S.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Yagunov, Mikhail N.

2016-01-01

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called ''dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Determinants of mortality in systemic sclerosis: a focused review.

PubMed

Poudel, Dilli Ram; Jayakumar, Divya; Danve, Abhijeet; Sehra, Shiv Tej; Derk, Chris T

2017-11-07

Scleroderma (systemic sclerosis) is an autoimmune rheumatic disorder that is characterized by fibrosis, vascular dysfunction, and autoantibody production that involves most visceral organs. It is characterized by a high morbidity and mortality rate, mainly due to disease-related complications. Epidemiological data describing mortality and survival in this population have been based on both population and observational studies. Multiple clinical and non-clinical factors have been found to predict higher likelihood of death among thepatients. Here, we do an extensive review of the available literature, utilizing the PubMed database, to describe scleroderma and non-scleroderma related determinants of mortality in this population. We found that even though the mortality among the general population has declined, scleroderma continues to carry a very high morbidity and mortality rate, however we have made some slow progress in improving the mortality among scleroderma patients over the last few decades.

Association of midlife value priorities with health-related quality of life, frailty and mortality among older men: a 26-year follow-up of the Helsinki Businessmen Study (HBS).

PubMed

Urtamo, Annele; Kautiainen, Hannu; Pitkälä, Kaisu H; Strandberg, Timo E

2018-05-01

Personal values influence behavior and decision making, but their long-term associations with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), frailty, and mortality are less clear. We studied these associations from midlife to old age in a 26-year follow-up of the Helsinki Businessmen Study (HBS) cohort. In 1974, 1320 clinically healthy men (born 1919-1934) reported in a 12-item questionnaire their personal values. In 2000, a mailed questionnaire, including assessment of HRQoL with RAND-36 (SF-36) instrument, was sent to survivors, and 1025 men responded. In 2000, the presence of phenotypic frailty was assessed using modified Fried criteria including indicators of shrinking, physical weakness, exhaustion, and physical inactivity. Mortality through December 31, 2000 was verified from national registries. Using a factor analysis, the data of the 12-item questionnaire of personal values were loaded in 3 factors: valuing health ("Health"), enjoyable and varying life ("Enjoyment"), and comfort and work-oriented life ("Work-life-balance"). Adjusted for age, we found a significant positive association between valuing "Health" in midlife and RAND-36 domains of Physical functioning (p = .032) and Vitality (p = .005) in old age. "Health" also predicted less frailty (p = .008), and "Enjoyment" was associated with higher mortality (p = .017). Value priorities of men assessed in midlife had long-term associations with HRQoL and frailty in old age, and they may also predict mortality.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatic Trauma: A Study From the European Liver Transplant Registry.

PubMed

Krawczyk, Marek; Grąt, Michał; Adam, Rene; Polak, Wojciech G; Klempnauer, Jurgen; Pinna, Antonio; Di Benedetto, Fabrizio; Filipponi, Franco; Senninger, Norbert; Foss, Aksel; Rufián-Peña, Sebastian; Bennet, William; Pratschke, Johann; Paul, Andreas; Settmacher, Utz; Rossi, Giorgio; Salizzoni, Mauro; Fernandez-Selles, Carlos; Martínez de Rituerto, Santiago T; Gómez-Bravo, Miguel A; Pirenne, Jacques; Detry, Olivier; Majno, Pietro E; Nemec, Petr; Bechstein, Wolf O; Bartels, Michael; Nadalin, Silvio; Pruvot, Francois R; Mirza, Darius F; Lupo, Luigi; Colledan, Michele; Tisone, Giuseppe; Ringers, Jan; Daniel, Jorge; Charco Torra, Ramón; Moreno González, Enrique; Bañares Cañizares, Rafael; Cuervas-Mons Martinez, Valentin; San Juan Rodríguez, Fernando; Yilmaz, Sezai; Remiszewski, Piotr

2016-11-01

Liver transplantation is the most extreme form of surgical management of patients with hepatic trauma, with very limited literature data supporting its use. The aim of this study was to assess the results of liver transplantation for hepatic trauma. This retrospective analysis based on European Liver Transplant Registry comprised data of 73 recipients of liver transplantation for hepatic trauma performed in 37 centers in the period between 1987 and 2013. Mortality and graft loss rates at 90 days were set as primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively. Mortality and graft loss rates at 90 days were 42.5% and 46.6%, respectively. Regarding general variables, cross-clamping without extracorporeal veno-venous bypass was the only independent risk factor for both mortality (P = 0.031) and graft loss (P = 0.034). Regarding more detailed factors, grade of liver trauma exceeding IV increased the risk of mortality (P = 0.005) and graft loss (P = 0.018). Moreover, a tendency above the level of significance was observed for the negative impact of injury severity score (ISS) on mortality (P = 0.071). The optimal cut-off for ISS was 33, with sensitivity of 60.0%, specificity of 80.0%, positive predictive value of 75.0%, and negative predictive value of 66.7%. Liver transplantation seems to be justified in selected patients with otherwise fatal severe liver injuries, particularly in whom cross-clamping without extracorporeal bypass can be omitted. The ISS cutoff less than 33 may be useful in the selection process.

Characteristics predicting outcomes of allogeneic stem-cell transplantation in relapsed acute myelogenous leukemia.

PubMed

Frazer, J; Couban, S; Doucette, S; Shivakumar, S

2017-04-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (ahsct) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, but it can cure carefully selected patients with acute myeloid leukemia (aml) in second remission (cr2). In a cohort of patients with aml who underwent ahsct in cr2, we determined the pre-transplant factors that predicted for overall survival (os), relapse, and non-relapse mortality. We also sought to validate the prognostic risk groups derived by Michelis and colleagues in this independent population. In a retrospective chart review, we obtained data for 55 consecutive patients who underwent ahsct for aml in cr2. Hazard ratios were used to describe the independent effects of pre-transplant variables on outcome, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to assess outcomes in the three prognostic groups identified by Michelis and colleagues. At 1, 3, and 5 years post-transplant, os was 60%, 45.5%, and 37.5% respectively. Statistically significant differences in os, relapse mortality, and non-relapse mortality were not identified between the prognostic risk groups identified by Michelis and colleagues. Women were less likely than men to relapse, and a modified European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (mebmt) score of 3 or less was associated with a lower non-relapse mortality. The 37.5% 5-year os in this cohort suggests that, compared with other options, ahsct offers patients with aml in cr2 a better chance of cure. Our study supports the use of the mebmt score to predict non-relapse mortality in this population.

Neonatal Candidiasis: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Clinical Judgment

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel K.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Gantz, Marie G.; Walsh, Michele C.; Sanchez, Pablo J.; Das, Abhik; Shankaran, Seetha; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Auten, Kathy J.; Miller, Nancy A.; Walsh, Thomas J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Kennedy, Kathleen A.; Finer, Neil N.; Duara, Shahnaz; Schibler, Kurt; Chapman, Rachel L.; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Frantz, Ivan D.; Phelps, Dale L.; Poindexter, Brenda B.; Bell, Edward F.; O’Shea, T. Michael; Watterberg, Kristi L.; Goldberg, Ronald N.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Invasive candidiasis is a leading cause of infection-related morbidity and mortality in extremely low-birth-weight (<1000 g) infants. We quantify risk factors predicting infection in high-risk premature infants and compare clinical judgment with a prediction model of invasive candidiasis. METHODS The study involved a prospective observational cohort of infants <1000 g birth weight at 19 centers of the NICHD Neonatal Research Network. At each sepsis evaluation, clinical information was recorded, cultures obtained, and clinicians prospectively recorded their estimate of the probability of invasive candidiasis. Two models were generated with invasive candidiasis as their outcome: 1) potentially modifiable risk factors and 2) a clinical model at time of blood culture to predict candidiasis. RESULTS Invasive candidiasis occurred in 137/1515 (9.0%) infants and was documented by positive culture from ≥ 1 of these sources: blood (n=96), cerebrospinal fluid (n=9), urine obtained by catheterization (n=52), or other sterile body fluid (n=10). Mortality was not different from infants who had positive blood culture compared to those with isolated positive urine culture. Incidence varied from 2–28% at the 13 centers enrolling ≥ 50 infants. Potentially modifiable risk factors (model 1) included central catheter, broad-spectrum antibiotics (e.g., third-generation cephalosporins), intravenous lipid emulsion, endotracheal tube, and antenatal antibiotics. The clinical prediction model (model 2) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79, and was superior to clinician judgment (0.70) in predicting subsequent invasive candidiasis. Performance of clinical judgment did not vary significantly with level of training. CONCLUSION Prior antibiotics, presence of a central catheter, endotracheal tube, and center were strongly associated with invasive candidiasis. Modeling was more accurate in predicting invasive candidiasis than clinical judgment. PMID:20876174

Development and validation of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Robinson, Tom E; Elley, C Raina; Kenealy, Tim; Drury, Paul L

2015-06-01

Type 2 diabetes is common and is associated with an approximate 80% increase in the rate of mortality. Management decisions may be assisted by an estimate of the patient's absolute risk of adverse outcomes, including death. This study aimed to derive a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes. We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked mortality records to develop a predictive risk model for 5-year risk of mortality. We then validated this model using information from a separate cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. 26,864 people were included in the development cohort with a median follow up time of 9.1 years. We developed three models initially using demographic information and then progressively more clinical detail. The final model, which also included markers of renal disease, proved to give best prediction of all-cause mortality with a C-statistic of 0.80 in the development cohort and 0.79 in the validation cohort (7610 people) and was well calibrated. Ethnicity was a major factor with hazard ratios of 1.37 for indigenous Maori, 0.41 for East Asian and 0.55 for Indo Asian compared with European (P<0.001). We have developed a model using information usually available in primary care that provides good assessment of patient's risk of death. Results are similar to models previously published from smaller cohorts in other countries and apply to a wider range of patient ethnic groups. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Design and validation of a model to predict early mortality in haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Mauri, Joan M; Clèries, Montse; Vela, Emili

2008-05-01

Mortality and morbidity rates are higher in patients receiving haemodialysis therapy than in the general population. Detection of risk factors related to early death in these patients could be of aid for clinical and administrative decision making. Objectives. The aims of this study were (1) to identify risk factors (comorbidity and variables specific to haemodialysis) associated with death in the first year following the start of haemodialysis and (2) to design and validate a prognostic model to quantify the probability of death for each patient. An analysis was carried out on all patients starting haemodialysis treatment in Catalonia during the period 1997-2003 (n = 5738). The data source was the Renal Registry of Catalonia, a mandatory population registry. Patients were randomly divided into two samples: 60% (n = 3455) of the total were used to develop the prognostic model and the remaining 40% (n = 2283) to validate the model. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the model. One-year mortality in the total study population was 16.5%. The predictive model included the following variables: age, sex, primary renal disease, grade of functional autonomy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignant processes, chronic liver disease, cardiovascular disease, initial vascular access and malnutrition. The analyses showed adequate calibration for both the sample to develop the model and the validation sample (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 0.97 and P = 0.49, respectively) as well as adequate discrimination (ROC curve 0.78 in both cases). Risk factors implicated in mortality at one year following the start of haemodialysis have been determined and a prognostic model designed. The validated, easy-to-apply model quantifies individual patient risk attributable to various factors, some of them amenable to correction by directed interventions.

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Kidney measures beyond traditional risk factors for cardiovascular prediction: A collaborative meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Sang, Yingying; Chalmers, John; Fox, Caroline; Guallar, Eliseo; Jafar, Tazeen; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Landman, Gijs W.D.; Muntner, Paul; Roderick, Paul; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Schöttker, Ben; Shankar, Anoop; Shlipak, Michael; Tonelli, Marcello; Townend, Jonathan; van Zuilen, Arjan; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yamashita, Kentaro; Gansevoort, Ron; Sarnak, Mark; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; Ärnlöv, Johan

2015-01-01

Background The utility of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for cardiovascular prediction is controversial. Methods We meta-analyzed individual-level data from 24 cohorts (with a median follow-up time longer than 4 years, varying from 4.2 to 19.0 years) in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (637,315 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease) and assessed C-statistic difference and reclassification improvement for cardiovascular mortality and fatal and non-fatal cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in 5-year timeframe, contrasting prediction models consisting of traditional risk factors with and without creatinine-based eGFR and/or albuminuria (either albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] or semi-quantitative dipstick proteinuria). Findings The addition of eGFR and ACR significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in general populations, but the improvement was greater with ACR than with eGFR and more evident for cardiovascular mortality (c-statistic difference 0.0139 [95%CI 0.0105–0.0174] and 0.0065 [0.0042–0.0088], respectively) and heart failure (0.0196 [0.0108–0.0284] and 0.0109 [0.0059–0.0159]) than for coronary disease (0.0048 [0.0029–0.0067] and 0.0036 [0.0019–0.0054]) and stroke (0.0105 [0.0058–0.0151] and 0.0036 [0.0004–0.0069]). Dipstick proteinuria demonstrated smaller improvement than ACR. The discrimination improvement with kidney measures was especially evident in individuals with diabetes or hypertension but remained significant with ACR for cardiovascular mortality and heart failure in those without either of these conditions. In participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the combination of eGFR and ACR for risk discrimination outperformed most single traditional predictors; the c-statistic for cardiovascular mortality declined by 0.023 [0.016–0.030] vs. <0.007 when omitting eGFR and ACR vs. any single modifiable traditional predictors, respectively. Interpretation Creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria should be taken into account for cardiovascular prediction, especially when they are already assessed for clinical purpose and/or cardiovascular mortality and heart failure are the outcomes of interest (e.g., the European guidelines on cardiovascular prevention). ACR may have particularly broad implications for cardiovascular prediction. In CKD populations, the simultaneous assessment of eGFR and ACR will facilitate improved cardiovascular risk classification, supporting current CKD guidelines. Funding US National Kidney Foundation and NIDDK PMID:26028594

Biomarkers improve mortality prediction by prognostic scales in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Menéndez, R; Martínez, R; Reyes, S; Mensa, J; Filella, X; Marcos, M A; Martínez, A; Esquinas, C; Ramirez, P; Torres, A

2009-07-01

Prognostic scales provide a useful tool to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the inflammatory response of the host, crucial in resolution and outcome, is not included in the prognostic scales. The aim of this study was to investigate whether information about the initial inflammatory cytokine profile and markers increases the accuracy of prognostic scales to predict 30-day mortality. To this aim, a prospective cohort study in two tertiary care hospitals was designed. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the systemic cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukins IL6, IL8 and IL10 were measured at admission. Initial severity was assessed by PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB65 (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) and CRB65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) scales. A total of 453 hospitalised CAP patients were included. The 36 patients who died (7.8%) had significantly increased levels of IL6, IL8, PCT and CRP. In regression logistic analyses, high levels of CRP and IL6 showed an independent predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality, after adjustment for prognostic scales. Adding CRP to PSI significantly increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.80 to 0.85, that of CURB65 from 0.82 to 0.85 and that of CRB65 from 0.79 to 0.85. Adding IL6 or PCT values to CRP did not significantly increase the AUC of any scale. When using two scales (PSI and CURB65/CRB65) and CRP simultaneously the AUC was 0.88. Adding CRP levels to PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scales improves the 30-day mortality prediction. The highest predictive value is reached with a combination of two scales and CRP. Further validation of that improvement is needed.

The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.

Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihoodmore » of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.« less

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-04-10

Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. We searched PubMed for the mesh terms "perforated peptic ulcer", "scoring systems", "risk factors", "outcome prediction", "mortality", "morbidity" and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use.

Comparison of Nutritional Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Japanese Chronic Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hiroshi; Inoue, Keiko; Shimizu, Kazue; Hiraga, Keiko; Takahashi, Erika; Otaki, Kaori; Yoshikawa, Taeko; Furuta, Kumiko; Tokunaga, Chika; Sakakibara, Tomoyo; Ito, Yasuhiko

2017-05-01

Protein energy wasting (PEW) is consistently associated with poor prognosis in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We compared the predictability of PEW as diagnosed by The International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism criteria (PEW ISRNM ) and geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) for all-cause mortality in Japanese HD patients. As cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) for PEW have not been established in PEW ISRNM for Asian populations, these were also investigated. The nutritional status from 409 HD patients was evaluated according to ISRNM and GNRI criteria. To compare the predictability of mortality, C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement were evaluated. During follow-up (median, 52 months; range, 7 months), 70 patients (17.1%) presented PEW according to ISRNM and 131 patients (32.1%) according to GNRI; in addition, 101 patients (24.7%) died. PEW ISRNM and GNRI were identified as independent predictors of death. Addition of PEW ISRNM and GNRI to a predictive model based on established risk factors improved NRI and integrated discrimination improvement. However, no differences were found between models including PEW ISRNM and GNRI. When lowering the criterion level of BMI per 1 kg/m 2 sequentially, PEW ISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m 2 maximized the hazard ratio for mortality. The model including PEW ISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m 2 improved NRI compared with the model including GNRI. PEW ISRNM and GNRI represent independent predictors of mortality, with comparable predictability. The diagnostic criterion of BMI in the ISRNM for Japanese population might be better at <20 kg/m 2 than at <23 kg/m 2 . Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volumetric bone mineral density of the spine predicts mortality in African-American men with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Lenchik, L; Register, T C; Russell, G B; Xu, J; Smith, S C; Bowden, D W; Divers, J; Freedman, B I

2018-05-31

The study showed that in African-American men with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), vertebral volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) predicts all-cause mortality, independent of other risk factors for death. Compared to European Americans, African Americans have lower rates of osteoporosis and higher rates of T2D. The relationships between BMD and fractures with mortality are unknown in this population. The aim of this study was to determine relationships between vertebral fractures and vertebral vBMD and mortality in African Americans with T2D. Associations between vertebral fractures and vBMD with all-cause mortality were examined in 675 participants with T2D (391 women and 284 men) in the African American-Diabetes Heart Study (AA-DHS). Lumbar and thoracic vBMD were measured using quantitative computed tomography (QCT). Vertebral fractures were assessed on sagittal CT images. Associations of vertebral fractures and vBMD with all-cause mortality were determined in sex-stratified analyses and in the full sample. Covariates in a minimally adjusted model included age, sex, BMI, smoking, and alcohol use; the full model was adjusted for those variables plus cardiovascular disease, hypertension, coronary artery calcified plaque, hormone replacement therapy (women), African ancestry proportion, and eGFR. After mean 7.6 ± 1.8-year follow-up, 59 (15.1%) of women and 58 (20.4%) of men died. In men, vBMD was inversely associated with mortality in the fully adjusted model: lumbar hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) = 0.70 (95% CI 0.52-0.95, p = 0.02) and thoracic HR per SD = 0.71 (95% CI 0.54-0.92, p = 0.01). Only trends toward association between vBMD and mortality were observed in the combined sample of men and women, as significant associations were absent in women. Vertebral fractures were not associated with mortality in either sex. Lower vBMD was associated with increased all-cause mortality in African-American men with T2D, independent of other risk factors for mortality including subclinical atherosclerosis.

Level and Change in Perceived Control Predict 19-Year Mortality: Findings from the Americans' Changing Lives Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Infurna, Frank J.; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-01-01

Perceived control plays an important role for health across adulthood and old age. However, little is known about the factors that account for such associations and whether changes in control (or control trajectory) uniquely predict major health outcomes over and above mean levels of control. Using data from the nationwide Americans' Changing…

Association of lean body mass with nutritional parameters and mortality in hemodialysis patients: A long-term follow-up clinical study.

PubMed

Zhou, Dong Chi; Yang, Xiu Hong; Zhan, Xiao Li; Gu, Yan Hong; Guo, Li Li; Jin, Hui Min

2018-06-01

This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between lean body mass (LBM) and nutritional status in hemodialysis (HD) patients to better predict their long-term prognosis. Anthropometric body measurements and biochemical parameters were recorded from 222 patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) at the Shanghai Pudong Hospital Hemodialysis Center. LBM was calculated using the serum creatinine index (LBM-SCR), mid-arm muscle circumference (LBM-MAMC), and dominant-arm hand-grip strength (LBM-HGS). Patient mortality and hospitalization were observed after 24 months. LBMs measured from LBM-SCR and LBM-MAMC were associated with sex, body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, and serum creatinine (SCR) ( p < 0.05). Through three methods of LBM evaluation, low LBM was shown to be associated with a higher mortality in patients undergoing HD ( p < 0.05). In addition, the rate of hospitalization among these patients was significantly increased ( p < 0.05). Performing multivariate regression analysis using mortality and hospitalization as the dependent variable, we found LBM-SCR and LBM-HGS are strongly associated with hospitalization and mortality in HD patients, indicating LBM is an important factor in prediction of outcomes in those patients. LBM is associated with nutritional parameters in HD patients, and LBM-SCR, HGS, and MAMC are simple approaches for accurately predicting the patient's risk of hospitalization and/or death.

Lead-Time Bias and Interhospital Transfer after Injury: Trauma Center Admission Vital Signs Underpredict Mortality in Transferred Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Holena, Daniel N; Wiebe, Douglas J; Carr, Brendan G; Hsu, Jesse Y; Sperry, Jason L; Peitzman, Andrew B; Reilly, Patrick M

2017-03-01

Admission physiology predicts mortality after injury, but may be improved by resuscitation before transfer. This phenomenon, which has been termed lead-time bias, may lead to underprediction of mortality in transferred patients and inaccurate benchmarking in centers receiving large numbers of transfer patients. We sought to determine the impact of using vital signs on arrival at the referring center vs on arrival at the trauma center in mortality prediction models for transferred trauma patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study using a state-wide trauma registry including all patients age 16 years or older, with Abbreviated Injury Scale scores ≥ 3, admitted to level I and II trauma centers in Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2014. The primary outcomes measure was the risk-adjusted association between mortality and interhospital transfer (IHT) when adjusting for physiology (as measured by Revised Trauma Score [RTS]) using the referring hospital arrival vital signs (model 1) compared with trauma center arrival vital signs (model 2). After adjusting for patient and injury factors, IHT was associated with reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93) using the RTS from trauma center admission, but with increased mortality (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) using RTS from the referring hospital. The greater the number of transfer patients seen by a center, the greater the difference in center-level mortality predicted by the 2 models (β -0.044; 95% CI -0.044 to -0.0043; p ≤ 0.001). Trauma center vital signs underestimate mortality in transfer patients and may lead to incorrect estimates of expected mortality. Where possible, benchmarking efforts should use referring hospital vital signs to risk-adjust IHT patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive factors of mortality in pediatric patients with acute renal injury associated with sepsis.

PubMed

Riyuzo, Marcia C; Silveira, Liciana V de A; Macedo, Célia S; Fioretto, José R

To evaluate the prognosis factors of children with sepsis and acute kidney injury. This was a retrospective study of children with sepsis and acute kidney injury that were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of a tertiary hospital. A multivariate analysis was performed to compare risk factors for mortality. Seventy-seven children (47 males) were retrospectively studied, median age of 4 months. Mean length of hospital stay was 7.33±0.16 days, 68.9% of patients received mechanical ventilation, 25.9% had oligo-anuria, and peritoneal dialysis was performed in 42.8%. The pRIFLE criteria were: injury (5.2%) and failure (94.8%), and the staging system criteria were: stage 1 (14.3%), stage 2 (29.9%), and stage 3 (55.8%). The mortality rate was 33.7%. In the multivariate analysis, the risk factors for mortality were PICU length of stay (OR=0.615, SE=0.1377, 95% CI=0.469-0.805, p=0.0004); invasive mechanical ventilation (OR=14.599, SE=1.1178, 95% CI=1.673-133.7564, p=0.0155); need for dialysis (OR=9.714, SE=0.8088, 95% CI=1.990-47.410, p=0.0049), and hypoalbuminemia (OR=10.484, SE=1.1147, 95% CI=1.179-93.200, p=0.035). The risk factors for mortality in children with acute kidney injury were associated with sepsis severity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

Prognostic factors, pathophysiology and novel biomarkers in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.

PubMed

Akinci, Esragul; Bodur, Hurrem; Sunbul, Mustafa; Leblebicioglu, Hakan

2016-08-01

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a geographically widespread tick-borne zoonosis. The clinical spectrum of the illness varies from mild infection to severe disease and death. In severe cases, hemorrhagic manifestations develop, with fatality rates of 4-20%, depending on the geographic region and quality of the health care. Although vast majority of the CCHF cases were reported from Turkey, mortality rate is lower than the other regions, which is 5% on average. Prediction of the clinical course of the disease enables appropriate management planning by the physician and prompt transportation, if needed, of the patient to a tertiary care hospital for an intensive therapy. Thus, predicting the outcome of the disease may avert potential mortality. There are numerous studies investigating the prognostic factors of CCHF in the literature. Majority of them were reported from Turkey and included investigations on clinical and biochemical parameters, severity scoring systems and some novel biomarkers. Somnolence, bleeding, thrombocytopenia, elevated liver enzymes and prolonged bleeding times are the most frequently reported prognostic factors to predict the clinical course of the disease earlier. High viral load seems to be the strongest predictor to make a clinical decision about the patient outcome. The severity scoring systems based on clinically important mortality-related parameters are especially useful for clinicians working in the field to predict the course of the disease and to decide which patient should be referred to a tertiary care hospital for intensive care. In the light of the pathophysiological characteristics of CCHF, some new biomarkers of prognosis including cytokines, soluble adhesion molecules, genetic polymorphisms and coagulopathy parameters were also investigated. However most of these tests are not available to clinicians and they were obtained mostly for research purposes. In spite of the various studies about prognostic factors, they have several inherent limitations, including large variability in the results and confusing data that are not useful for clinicians in routine practice. In this paper, the results of diverse studies of the prediction of the prognosis in CCHF based on epidemiological, clinical and laboratory findings of the disease were summarized and suggestions for future studies are provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-throughput serum proteomics for the identification of protein biomarkers of mortality in older men

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orwoll, Eric S.; Wiedrick, Jack; Jacobs, Jon

The biological perturbations associated with incident mortality are not well elucidated, and there are limited biomarkers for the prediction of mortality. We used a novel high throughput proteomics approach to identify serum peptides and proteins associated with 5 year mortality in community dwelling men age >65 years who participated in a longitudinal observational study of musculoskeletal aging (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men: MrOS). In a discovery phase, serum specimens collected at baseline in 2473 men were analyzed using liquid chromatography-ion mobility-mass spectrometry, and incident mortality in the subsequent 5 years was ascertained by tri-annual questionnaire. Rigorous statistical methods were utilized tomore » identify 56 peptides (31 proteins) that were associated with 5-year mortality. In an independent replication phase, selected reaction monitoring was used to examine 21 of those peptides in baseline serum from 750 additional men; 81% of those peptides remained significantly associated with mortality. Mortality-associated proteins included a variety involved in inflammation or complement activation; several have been previously linked to mortality (e.g. C reactive protein, alpha 1-antichymotrypsin) and others are not previously known to be associated with mortality. Other novel proteins of interest included pregnancy-associated plasma protein, VE cadherin, leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1, vinculin, vitronectin, mast/stem cell growth factor receptor and Saa4. A panel of peptides improved the predictive value of a commonly used clinical predictor of mortality. Overall, these results suggest that complex inflammatory pathways, and proteins in other pathways, are linked to 5-year mortality risk. This work may serve to identify novel biomarkers for near term mortality.« less

Cardiovascular Event Prediction and Risk Reclassification by Coronary, Aortic, and Valvular Calcification in the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Udo; Massaro, Joseph M; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Kathiresan, Sekar; Fox, Caroline S; O'Donnell, Christopher J

2016-02-22

We determined whether vascular and valvular calcification predicted incident major coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors in the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral or aortic valve calcium were measured by cardiac computed tomography in participants free of CVD. Participants were followed for a median of 8 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine association of CAC, thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral and aortic valve calcium with end points. Improvement in discrimination beyond risk factors was tested via the C-statistic and net reclassification index. In this cohort of 3486 participants (mean age 50±10 years; 51% female), CAC was most strongly associated with major coronary heart disease, followed by major CVD, and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors. Among noncoronary calcifications, mitral valve calcium was associated with major CVD and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors and CAC. CAC significantly improved discriminatory value beyond risk factors for coronary heart disease (area under the curve 0.78-0.82; net reclassification index 32%, 95% CI 11-53) but not for CVD. CAC accurately reclassified 85% of the 261 patients who were at intermediate (5-10%) 10-year risk for coronary heart disease based on Framingham risk factors to either low risk (n=172; no events observed) or high risk (n=53; observed event rate 8%). CAC improves discrimination and risk reclassification for major coronary heart disease and CVD beyond risk factors in asymptomatic community-dwelling persons and accurately reclassifies two-thirds of the intermediate-risk population. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Value of Excess Pressure Integral for Predicting 15-Year All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortalities in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients.

PubMed

Huang, Jui-Tzu; Cheng, Hao-Min; Yu, Wen-Chung; Lin, Yao-Ping; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Wang, Jiun-Jr; Wu, Chung-Li; Chen, Chen-Huan

2017-11-29

The excess pressure integral (XSPI), derived from analysis of the arterial pressure curve, may be a significant predictor of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients. We comprehensively investigated the prognostic value of XSPI for predicting long-term mortality in end-stage renal disease patients undergoing regular hemodialysis. A total of 267 uremic patients (50.2% female; mean age 54.2±14.9 years) receiving regular hemodialysis for more than 6 months were enrolled. Cardiovascular parameters were obtained by echocardiography and applanation tonometry. Calibrated carotid arterial pressure waveforms were analyzed according to the wave-transmission and reservoir-wave theories. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to account for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, albumin, body mass index, and hemodialysis treatment adequacy. Incremental utility of the parameters to risk stratification was assessed by net reclassification improvement. During a median follow-up of 15.3 years, 124 deaths (46.4%) incurred. Baseline XSPI was significantly predictive of all-cause (hazard ratio per 1 SD 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.70, P =0.0006) and cardiovascular mortalities (1.47, 1.18-1.84, P =0.0006) after accounting for the covariates. The addition of XSPI to the base prognostic model significantly improved prediction of both all-cause mortality (net reclassification improvement=0.1549, P =0.0012) and cardiovascular mortality (net reclassification improvement=0.1535, P =0.0033). XSPI was superior to carotid-pulse wave velocity, forward and backward wave amplitudes, and left ventricular ejection fraction in consideration of overall independent and incremental prognostics values. In end-stage renal disease patients undergoing regular hemodialysis, XSPI was significantly predictive of long-term mortality and demonstrated an incremental value to conventional prognostic factors. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

[Mortality in patients with potentially severe trauma in a tertiary care hospital emergency department and evaluation of risk prediction with the GAP prognostic scale].

PubMed

Martín Quirós, Alejandro; Borobia Pérez, Alberto; Pertejo Fernández, Ana; Pérez Perilla, Patricia; Rivera Núñez, Angélica; Martínez Virto, Ana María; Quintana Díaz, Manuel

2015-01-01

To assess mortality in patients with potentially severe injuries and explore the correlation between mortality and the score on the GAP scale (Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and systolic blood pressure). Retrospective observational study of all patients with potentially severe injuries treated in an emergency department (ED) over a period of 15 months. We recorded epidemiologic variables, cause of injury, type of transport, need for prehospital orotracheal intubation, substance abuse, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), variables for the GAP prognostic score, destination on discharge from the ED and at the end of the episode, and mortality. Data for 864 patients entered the final analysis. Mortality was higher in older patients (mean [SD] age, 57.9 [26.6] vs 41.1 [17.4], P<.05) and those with a higher mean CCI (3.3 [2.9] vs 0.9 [1.7]). Accident type was a precipitating factor associated with mortality (P<.001), but substance abuse was unrelated. Patients who died had lower mean Glasgow scores (9.1 [5.3] vs 14.8 [1.2], P<.001) and lower mean systolic and diastolic pressures (respectively, 113.8 [19.8] vs 131.3 [20.7] mm Hg, P=.012, and 60.1 [16.8] vs 77.7 [11.7] mm Hg, P=.002). Patients who died also had lower mean GAP scores than survivors (15.1 [4.8] vs 22.6 [1.7], P<.001). Risk factors that remained significant in the multivariate analysis were CCI (odds ratio [OR], 0.704; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96) and GAP score (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.45-2.20). Mortality in our patient series was lower than rates in previously published reports. The GAP score was a useful tool for predicting mortality in the series we studied.

The standard deviation of extracellular water/intracellular water is associated with all-cause mortality and technique failure in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Tian, Jun-Ping; Wang, Hong; Du, Feng-He; Wang, Tao

2016-09-01

The mortality rate of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is still high, and the predicting factors for PD patient mortality remain to be determined. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the standard deviation (SD) of extracellular water/intracellular water (E/I) and all-cause mortality and technique failure in continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) patients. All 152 patients came from the PD Center between January 1st 2006 and December 31st 2007. Clinical data and at least five-visit E/I ratio defined by bioelectrical impedance analysis were collected. The patients were followed up till December 31st 2010. The primary outcomes were death from any cause and technique failure. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for mortality and technique failure in CAPD patients. All patients were followed up for 59.6 ± 23.0 months. The patients were divided into two groups according to their SD of E/I values: lower SD of E/I group (≤0.126) and higher SD of E/I group (>0.126). The patients with higher SD of E/I showed a higher all-cause mortality (log-rank χ (2) = 10.719, P = 0.001) and technique failure (log-rank χ (2) = 9.724, P = 0.002) than those with lower SD of E/I. Cox regression analysis found that SD of E/I independently predicted all-cause mortality (HR  3.551, 95 % CI 1.442-8.746, P = 0.006) and technique failure (HR  2.487, 95 % CI 1.093-5.659, P = 0.030) in CAPD patients after adjustment for confounders except when sensitive C-reactive protein was added into the model. The SD of E/I was a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality and technique failure in CAPD patients.

Metabonomics Analysis of Plasma Reveals the Lactate to Cholesterol Ratio as an Independent Prognostic Factor of Short-Term Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Desmoulin, Franck; Galinier, Michel; Trouillet, Charlotte; Berry, Matthieu; Delmas, Clément; Turkieh, Annie; Massabuau, Pierre; Taegtmeyer, Heinrich; Smih, Fatima; Rouet, Philippe

2013-01-01

Objective Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value. Methods We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for 1H NMR – based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings. Results Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS) state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P  =  0.018). The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort. Conclusion This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative guidance for decision making in heart failure care. PMID:23573279

Plant Water Content is the Best Predictor of Drought-induced Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapes, G.; Roskilly, B.; Dobrowski, S.; Sala, A.

2017-12-01

Predicting drought-induced forest mortality remains extremely challenging. Recent research has shown that both plant hydraulics and stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) interact during drought-induced mortality. The strong interaction between these two variables and the fact that they are both difficult to measure render drought-induced plant mortality extremely difficult to monitor and predict. A variable that is easier to measure and that integrates hydraulic transport and carbohydrate dynamics may, therefore, improve our ability to monitor and predict mortality. Here, we tested whether plant water content is such an integrator variable and, therefore, a better predictor of mortality under drought. We subjected 250 two-year-old ponderosa pine seedlings to drought until they died in a greenhouse experiment. Periodically during the dry down, we measured percent loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC), NSC concentration (starch and soluble sugars), and tissue volumetric water content (VWC) in roots, stems and leaves. At each measurement time, a separate set of seedlings were re-watered to estimate the probability of mortality at the population level. Linear models were used to explore whether PLC and NSC were linked to VWC and to determine which of the three variables predicted mortality the best. As expected, plants lost hydraulic conductivity in stems and roots during the dry down. Starch concentrations also decreased in all organs as the drought proceeded. In contrast, soluble sugars increased in stems and roots, consistent with the conversion of stored NSCs into osmotically active compounds. Models containing both PLC and NSC concentrations as predictors of VWC were highly significant in all organs and at the whole plant level, indicating that water content is influenced by both PLC and NSCs. PLC, NSC, and VWC explained mortality across organs and at the whole plant level, but VWC was the best predictor (R2 = 0.99). Our results indicate that plant water content integrates plant hydraulics and carbohydrate availability, two factors commonly interacting and difficult to tease apart. An important advantage of water content is that it is very easy to measure across scales, from leaves to entire ecosystems through remote sensing.

Predictive factors for intrauterine growth restriction.

PubMed

Albu, A R; Anca, A F; Horhoianu, V V; Horhoianu, I A

2014-06-15

Reduced fetal growth is seen in about 10% of the pregnancies but only a minority has a pathological background and is known as intrauterine growth restriction or fetal growth restriction (IUGR / FGR). Increased fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity as well as adult pathologic conditions are often associated to IUGR. Risk factors for IUGR are easy to assess but have poor predictive value. For the diagnostic purpose, biochemical serum markers, ultrasound and Doppler study of uterine and spiral arteries, placental volume and vascularization, first trimester growth pattern are object of assessment today. Modern evaluations propose combined algorithms using these strategies, all with the goal of a better prediction of risk pregnancies.

Prognosis and treatment of pancreaticoduodenal traumatic injuries: which factors are predictors of outcome?

PubMed

Antonacci, Nicola; Di Saverio, Salomone; Ciaroni, Valentina; Biscardi, Andrea; Giugni, Aimone; Cancellieri, Francesco; Coniglio, Carlo; Cavallo, Piergiorgio; Giorgini, Eleonora; Baldoni, Franco; Gordini, Giovanni; Tugnoli, Gregorio

2011-03-01

Abdominal trauma rarely causes injuries involving the duodenum and pancreas. Associated injuries occur in 46% of all pancreatic injuries. The morbidity and mortality of pancreaticoduodenal injuries remain high. The present study is a retrospective review of our experience from 1989 to 2008 in the surgical treatment of traumatic pancreaticoduodenal injuries. Mortality, morbidity, prognostic factors, and the value of surgical techniques were analyzed. In our level I Trauma Center, between 1989 and 2008, 55 patients had a pancreaticoduodenal injury. In 68.5% of cases pancreatic injuries were found, 20.4% had duodenal injury, and 11.1% suffered combined pancreaticoduodenal injuries; 85.3% of the patients had blunt abdominal trauma, while 14.9% had penetrating injuries. We treated 78.1% of the patients with external drainage and/or simple suture; distal pancreatectomy was performed in 9% of cases and duodenal resection with anastomosis (3.7%) and diversion procedures (3.7%) were performed in an equal number of patients. Age, American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) grade, organ involved, hemodynamic status, intraoperative cardiac arrest, and operative time remained strongly predictive of mortality on multivariate analysis. The AAST grade represented, on multivariate analysis, the only independent prognostic factor predictive of overall morbidity. In the past decade we have used feeding jejunostomy more frequently, with a reduction of mortality and operating time, due also to a better approach from a dedicated trauma team. Optimal management and better outcome of pancreaticoduodenal injuries seem to be associated with shorter operative time, and with simple and fast damage control surgery (DCS), in contrast to definitive surgical procedures.

Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

2017-07-15

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p < 0.0001). The alternative predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

Systemic inflammatory response and serum lipopolysaccharide levels predict multiple organ failure and death in alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

2015-09-01

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P < 0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P = 0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Effects of Clostridium difficile infection in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Sundaram, Vinay; May, Folasade P; Manne, Vignan; Saab, Sammy

2014-10-01

Infection increases mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). Little is known about the association between Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and AH. We examined the prevalence and effects of CDI in patients with AH, compared with those of other infections. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data collected from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, from 2008 through 2011. International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification codes were used to identify patients with AH. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine risk factors that affect mortality, negative binomial regression to evaluate the effects of CDI on predicted length of stay (LOS), and Poisson regression to determine the effects of CDI on predicted hospital charges. Chi-square and Wilcoxon rank-sum analyses were used to compare mortality, LOS, and hospital charges associated with CDI with those associated with urinary tract infection (UTI) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Of 10,939 patients with AH, 177 had CDI (1.62%). Patients with AH and CDI had increased odds of inpatient mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; P = .04), a longer predicted LOS (10.63 vs 5.75 d; P < .001), and greater predicted hospital charges ($36,924.30 vs $29,136.58; P < .001), compared with those without CDI. Compared with UTI, CDI was associated with similar mortality but greater LOS (9 vs 6 d; P < .001) and hospital charges ($45,607 vs $32,087; P < .001). SBP was associated with higher mortality than CDI (17.3% vs 10.1%; P = .045), but similar LOS and hospital charges. In patients with AH, CDI is associated with greater mortality and health care use. These effects appear similar to those for UTI and SBP. We propose further studies to determine the cost effectiveness of screening for CDI among patients with AH. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Which parameters affect long-term mortality in older adults: is comprehensive geriatric assessment a predictor of mortality?

PubMed

Kara, Ozgur; Canbaz, Busra; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Arik, Gunes; Sumer, Fatih; Aycicek, Gozde Sengul; Varan, Hacer Dogan; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Dogru, Rana Tuna; Cınar, Esat; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Ulger, Zekeriya; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

2017-06-01

Determining predictors of mortality among older adults might help identify high-risk patients and enable timely intervention. The aim of the study was to identify which variables predict geriatric outpatient mortality, using routine geriatric assessment tools. We analyzed the data of 1141 patients who were admitted to the geriatric medicine outpatient clinic between 2001 and 2004. Comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary geriatric team. Mortality rate was determined in 2015. The parameters predicting survival were examined. Median age of the patients (415 male, 726 female) was 71.7 years (53-95 years). Mean survival time was 12.2 years (95 % CI; 12-12.4 years). In multivariate analysis, age (OR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.09-1.23, p < 0.001), smoking (OR: 2.51, 95 % CI: 1.18-5.35, p = 0.017) and metabolic syndrome (OR: 2.20, 95 % CI: 1.05-4.64, p = 0.038) were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. MNA-SF scores (OR: 0.84, 95 % CI: 0.71-1.00, p = 0.050) and free T3 levels (OR: 0.70, 95 % CI: 0.49-1.00, p = 0.052) had borderline significance. The present study showed that the risk conferred by metabolic syndrome is beyond its individual components. Our findings confirm previous studies on the prognostic role of nutritional status, as reflected by MNA-SF. Serum fT3, a simple laboratory test, may also be used in geriatric outpatient clinics to identify individuals at risk. The results of the study demonstrated the need for addressing modifiable risk factors such as smoking, metabolic syndrome, and undernutrition in older adults.

Necrotizing soft-tissue infections in the feet of patients with diabetes: outcome of surgical treatment and factors associated with limb loss and mortality.

PubMed

Aragón-Sánchez, Javier; Quintana-Marrero, Yurena; Lázaro-Martínez, Jose L; Hernández-Herrero, Maria J; García-Morales, Esther; Beneit-Montesinos, Juan V; Cabrera-Galván, Juan J

2009-09-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the outcomes of treatment of necrotizing soft-tissue infections (NSTIs) in the feet of diabetic patients and to determine factors associated with limb salvage and mortality. A retrospective study of a consecutive series of 145 diabetic patients suffering from NSTIs treated in the Diabetic Foot Unit, La Paloma Hospital was done. NSTIs were classified as necrotizing cellulitis if it involved the subcutaneous tissue and the skin, as necrotizing fasciitis if it involved the deep fascia, and as myonecrosis in those cases where muscular necrosis was present. In the necrotizing cellulitis group (n = 109), 8 (7.3%) major amputations were performed. In the necrotizing fasciitis group (n = 25), 13 (52%) major amputations were undertaken. In the myonecrosis group (n = 11), 6 (54.5%) major amputations were performed. Predictive variables related to limb loss were fasciitis (OR = 20, 95% CI = 3.2-122.1) and myonecrosis (OR = 53.2, 95% CI = 5.1-552.4). Predictive variables of mortality were age >75 years (OR = 10.3, 95% CI = 1.9-53.6) and creatinine values >132.6 micromol/L (OR = 5.8, 95% CI = 1.1-30.2). NSTIs of the foot are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients.When fascia and/or muscle are involved, there are significant risks of major amputation.

Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

PubMed Central

Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

The Rancho Bernardo Study: 40 years studying why women have less heart disease than men and how diabetes modifies women’s usual cardiac protection

PubMed Central

Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Forty years ago, few cohort studies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) included women and fewer still included diabetes or glycemia as a risk factor. I describe here the Rancho Bernardo Study (RBS), a single-site, >40-year cohort study of sex differences in heart disease and how diabetes modifies women’s natural cardioprotection. More than 6000 participants were followed for morbidity and mortality, with nearly 3000 survivors (and death certificates for >85% of decedents). In RBS more than half of diabetes was undiagnosed without an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT); more women than men had isolated post-challenge hyperglycemia (IPH) as their only glucose evidence of diabetes; men had more diabetes than women, with higher fasting but lower post-challenge glucose levels than women; women with diabetes had more classical CVD risk factors than men; excess risk-factor clustering partially explained how diabetes eradicates female cardioprotection. Post-challenge glucose was a stronger CVD risk factor than fasting glucose. Endogenous insulin was not an independent CVD risk factor in women or men. Men with higher testosterone levels developed less diabetes and had fewer metabolic syndrome components. In men higher total testosterone levels predicted a reduced risk of all-cause and CVD but not cancer mortality. In women both extremes of bioavailable testosterone predicted fatal coronary heart disease but not all-cause mortality. Summary point estimates from large systematic reviews of individual data have replicated most RBS findings. Ongoing research can further clarify how diabetes modifies women’s cardioprotection from mid-life to old age. PMID:24187655

Predicting regional variations in mortality from motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Clark, D E; Cushing, B M

1999-02-01

To show that the previously-observed inverse relationship between population density and per-capita mortality from motor vehicle crashes can be derived from a simple mathematical model that can be used for prediction. The authors proposed models in which the number of fatal crashes in an area was directly proportional to the population and also to some power of the mean distance between hospitals. Alternatively, these can be parameterized as Weibull survival models. Using county and state data from the U.S. Census, the authors fitted linear regression equations on a logarithmic scale to test the validity of these models. The southern states conformed to a different model from the other states. If an indicator variable was used to distinguish these groups, the resulting model accounted for 74% of the variation from state to state (Alaska excepted). After controlling for mean inter-hospital distance, the southern states had a per-capita mortality 1.37 times that of the other states. Simply knowing the mean distance between hospitals in a region allows a fiarly accurate estimate of its per-capita mortality from vehicle crashes. After controlling for this factor, vehicle crash mortality per capita is higher in the southern states, for reasons yet to be explained.

Factors Associated with Pediatric Mortality from Motor Vehicle Crashes in the United States: A State-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Wolf, Lindsey L; Chowdhury, Ritam; Tweed, Jefferson; Vinson, Lori; Losina, Elena; Haider, Adil H; Qureshi, Faisal G

2017-08-01

To examine geographic variation in motor vehicle crash (MVC)-related pediatric mortality and identify state-level predictors of mortality. Using the 2010-2014 Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we identified passengers <15 years of age involved in fatal MVCs, defined as crashes on US public roads with ≥1 death (adult or pediatric) within 30 days. We assessed passenger, driver, vehicle, crash, and state policy characteristics as factors potentially associated with MVC-related pediatric mortality. Our outcomes were age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children and percentage of children who died of those in fatal MVCs. Unit of analysis was US state. We used multivariable linear regression to define state characteristics associated with higher levels of each outcome. Of 18 116 children in fatal MVCs, 15.9% died. The age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children varied from 0.25 in Massachusetts to 3.23 in Mississippi (mean national rate of 0.94). Predictors of greater age-adjusted, MVC-related mortality rate per 100 000 children included greater percentage of children who were unrestrained or inappropriately restrained (P < .001) and greater percentage of crashes on rural roads (P = .016). Additionally, greater percentages of children died in states without red light camera legislation (P < .001). For 10% absolute improvement in appropriate child restraint use nationally, our risk-adjusted model predicted >1100 pediatric deaths averted over 5 years. MVC-related pediatric mortality varied by state and was associated with restraint nonuse or misuse, rural roads, vehicle type, and red light camera policy. Revising state regulations and improving enforcement around these factors may prevent substantial pediatric mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Mortality of Dandy-Walker syndrome in the United States: Analysis by race, gender, and insurance status.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Ukwuoma, Onyinyechi I; Lunos, Scott; Okuyemi, Kolawole S

2015-01-01

Dandy-Walker syndrome (DWS) is a congenital disorder often diagnosed in early childhood. Typically manifesting with signs/symptoms of increased intracranial pressure, DWS is catastrophic unless timely neurosurgical care can be administered via cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage. The rates of mortality, adverse discharge disposition (ADD), and CSF drainage in DWS may not be uniform regardless of race, gender or insurance status; such differences could reflect disparities in access to neurosurgical care. This study examines these issues on a nationwide level. The Kids' Inpatient Database spanning 1997-2003 was used for analysis. Only patients admitted for DWS (ICD-9-CM = 742.3) were included. Multivariate analysis was adjusted for several variables, including patient age, race, sex, admission type, primary payer, income, and hospital volume. More than 14,000 DWS patients were included. Increasing age predicted reduced mortality (OR = 0.87; P < 0.05), ADD (OR = 0.96; P < 0.05), and decreased likelihood of receiving CSF drainage (OR = 0.86; P < 0.0001). Elective admission type predicted reduced mortality (OR = 0.29; P = 0.0008), ADD (OR = 0.68; P < 0.05), and increased CSF drainage (OR = 2.02; P < 0.0001). African-American race (OR = 1.20; P < 0.05) and private insurance (OR = 1.18; P < 0.05) each predicted increased likelihood of receiving CSF drainage, but were not predictors of mortality or ADD. Gender, income, and hospital volume were not significant predictors of DWS outcome. Increasing age and elective admissions each decrease mortality and ADD associated with DWS. African-American race and private insurance status increase access to CSF drainage. These findings contradict previous literature citing African-American race as a risk factor for mortality in DWS, and emphasize the role of private insurance in obtaining access to potentially lifesaving operative care.

Development of a Middle-Age and Geriatric Trauma Mortality Risk Score A Tool to Guide Palliative Care Consultations.

PubMed

Konda, Sanjit R; Seymour, Rachel; Manoli, Arthur; Gales, Jordan; Karunakar, Madhav A

2016-11-01

This study aimed to develop a tool to quantify risk of inpatient mortality among geriatric and middleaged trauma patients. This study sought to demonstrate the ability of the novel risk score in the early identification of high risk trauma patients for resource-sparing interventions, including referral to palliative medicine. This retrospective cohort study utilized data from a single level 1 trauma center. Regression analysis was used to create a novel risk of inpatient mortality score. A total of 2,387 low energy and 1,201 high-energy middle-aged (range: 55 to 64 years of age) and geriatric (65 years of age or odler) trauma patients comprised the study cohort. Model validation was performed using 37,474 lowenergy and 97,034 high-energy patients from the National Trauma Databank (NTDB). Potential hospital cost reduction was calculated for early referral of high risk trauma patients to palliative medicine services in comparison to no palliative medicine referral. Factors predictive of inpatient mortality among the study and validation patient cohorts included; age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head and neck and chest. Within the validation cohort, the novel mortality risk score demonstrated greater predictive capacity than existing trauma scores [STTGMALE-AUROC: 0.83 vs. TRISS 0.80, (p < 0.01), STTGMAHE-AUROC: 0.86 vs. TRISS 0.85, (p < 0.01)]. Our model demonstrated early palliative medicine evaluation could produce $1,083,082 in net hospital savings per year. This novel risk score for older trauma patients has shown fidelity in prediction of inpatient mortality; in the study and validation cohorts. This tool may be used for early intervention in the care of patients at high risk of mortality and resource expenditure.

Interaction between geriatric nutritional risk index and decoy receptor 3 predicts mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Tsun; Hu, Fen-Hsiang; Lien, Tse-Jen; Chen, Ping-Jen; Huang, Tung-Po; Tarng, Der-Cherng

2014-01-01

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is common and associated with poor outcome in hemodialysis patients. In hemodialysis patients, geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) have been shown as the nutritional and inflammatory markers, respectively. The present study aimed to assess the predictive ability of GNRI and DcR3 for PEW status and long-term outcomes in chronic hemodialysis patients. A prospective cohort of 318 hemodialysis patients was conducted with a median follow-up of 54 months. Malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) was used as the reference standard for the presence of PEW. Endpoints were cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Baseline GNRI had a strong negative correlation with DcR3 and MIS score. For patients with age < or ≥60, high DcR3 and low GNRI were independent predictors for the presence of PEW at baseline. At the end of the study, 81 patients died (27 cardiovascular deaths). The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of low GNRI and high DcR3 were 1.93 (1.1-4.8) and 2.53 (1.2-5.5) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.85 (1.1-3.2) and 2.37 (1.5-3.7) for all-cause mortality, respectively. While integrated into a model of conventional risk factors, GNRI together with DcR3 further significantly improved the predictability for overall mortality (c statistic, 0.823). Low GNRI and high DcR3 were the alternatives for identifying hemodialysis patients at risk of PEW and overall mortality. Further studies are needed to verify whether timely recognition of hemodialysis patients with a high malnutrition-inflammation risk could reduce their mortality by appropriate interventional strategies.

Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

PubMed

Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

2018-01-01

Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Levesque, Eric; Hoti, Emir; Azoulay, Daniel; Ichaï, Philippe; Habouchi, Houssam; Castaing, Denis; Samuel, Didier; Saliba, Faouzi

2012-01-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have a poor prognosis. Identifying patients in whom ICU care will be useful can be challenging. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of prognostic scores with respect to mortality and to identify mortality risk factors. Three hundred and seventy-seven cirrhotic patients admitted to a Liver ICU between May 2005 and March 2009 were enrolled in this study. Their average age was 55.5±11.4 years. The etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (68%), virus hepatitis (18%), or mixed (5.5%). The main causes of hospitalization were gastrointestinal hemorrhage (43%), sepsis (19%), and hepatic encephalopathy (12%). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 34.7% and 43.0%, respectively. Infection was the major cause of death (81.6%). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SOFA (0.92) and SAPS II (0.89) scores calculated within 24h of admission predicted ICU mortality better than the Child-Pugh score (0.79) or MELD scores with (0.79-0.82) or without the incorporation of serum sodium levels (0.82). Statistical analysis showed that the prognostic severity scores, organ replacement therapy, and infection were accurate predictors of mortality. On multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor therapy, bilirubin level at admission, and infection were independently associated with ICU mortality. For cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU, SAPS II, and SOFA scores predicted ICU mortality better than liver-specific scores. Mechanical ventilation or vasopressor therapy, bilirubin levels at admission and infection in patients with advanced cirrhosis were associated with a poor outcome. Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs). Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an analysis over a prolonged period, but occurs, in effect, every day of the year. This finding is relevant for all countries where hospitals use HSMR for monitoring and improving hospital performance. The use of 'admission frequency' as additional adjustment variable may provide a more accurate HSMR. PMID:21401936

Factors affecting road mortality of white-tailed deer in eastern South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Galster, Dwight H.; Schauer, Ron J.; Morlock, Wilbert W.; Delger, Joshua A.

2008-01-01

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortalities (n = 4,433) caused by collisions with automobiles during 2003 were modeled in 35 counties in eastern South Dakota. Seventeen independent variables and 5 independent variable interactions were evaluated to explain deer mortalities. A negative binomial regression model (Ln Y = 1.25 – 0.12 [percentage tree coverage] + 0.0002 [county area] + 5.39 [county hunter success rate] + 0.0023 [vehicle proxy 96–104 km/hr roads], model deviance = 33.43, χ2 = 27.53, df = 27) was chosen using a combination of a priori model selection and AICc. Management options include use of the model to predict road mortalities and to increase the number of hunting licenses, which could result in fewer DVCs.

Acute Stress Disorder Symptoms Predict All-Cause Mortality Among Myocardial Infarction Patients: a 15-Year Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Ginzburg, Karni; Kutz, Ilan; Koifman, Bella; Roth, Arie; Kriwisky, Michael; David, Daniel; Bleich, Avi

2016-04-01

Studies have recognized myocardial infarction (MI) as a risk for acute stress disorder (ASD), manifested in dissociative, intrusive, avoidant, and hyperarousal symptoms during hospitalization. This study examined the prognostic role of ASD symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in MI patients over a period of 15 years. One hundred and ninety-three MI patients filled out questionnaires assessing ASD symptoms during hospitalization. Risk factors and cardiac prognostic measures were collected from patients' hospital records. All-cause mortality was longitudinally assessed, with an endpoint of 15 years after the MI. Of the participants, 21.8 % died during the follow-up period. The decedents had reported higher levels of ASD symptoms during hospitalization than had the survivors, but this effect became nonsignificant when adjusting for age, sex, education, left ventricular ejection fraction, and depression. A series of analyses conducted on each of the ASD symptom clusters separately indicated that-after adjusting for age, sex, education, left ventricular ejection fraction, and depression-dissociative symptoms significantly predicted all-cause mortality, indicating that the higher the level of in-hospital dissociative symptoms, the shorter the MI patients' survival time. These findings suggest that in-hospital dissociative symptoms should be considered in the risk stratification of MI patients.

Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative predictor than individual functional traits.

Effects of Late Stages of Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)-Induced Ash Mortality on Forest Floor Invertebrate Communities

PubMed Central

Herms, Daniel A

2017-01-01

Abstract Emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) is an invasive wood-borer causing rapid, widespread ash tree mortality, formation of canopy gaps, and accumulation of coarse woody debris (CWD) in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of canopy gaps and ash CWD on forest floor invertebrate communities during late stages of EAB-induced ash mortality, when the effects of gaps are predicted to be smallest and effects of CWD are predicted to be greatest, according to the model proposed by Perry and Herms 2016a. A 2-year study was conducted in forest stands that had experienced nearly 100% ash mortality in southeastern Michigan, USA, near where EAB first established in North America. In contrast to patterns documented during early stages of the EAB invasion, effects of gaps were minimal during late stages of ash mortality, but invertebrate communities were affected by accumulation and decomposition of CWD. Invertebrate activity-abundance, evenness, and diversity were highest near minimally decayed logs (decay class 1), but diverse taxon-specific responses to CWD affected community composition. Soil moisture class emerged as an important factor structuring invertebrate communities, often mediating the strength and direction of their responses to CWD and stages of decomposition. The results of this study were consistent with the predictions that the effects of CWD on invertebrate communities would be greater than those of canopy gaps during late stages of EAB-induced ash mortality. This research contributes to understanding of the cascading and long-term ecological impacts of invasive species on native forest ecosystems.

[Karnosfsky index as a mortality predicting factor in patients on home-based enteral nutrition].

PubMed

Puiggròs, C; Lecha, M; Rodríguez, T; Pérez-Portabella, C; Planas, M

2009-01-01

Karnofsky Index (KI) is a widely used functional scale developed for oncology patients. It has proved useful as outcome predictor with cancer and geriatric patients. Theoretically, KI could be used to predict mortality in patients with home enteral nutrition (HEN). To determine baseline KI and its 6-month evolution in HEN patients, and to assess its relation with the mortality rate. Observational and prospective study carried out during 2002 and 2003 with tube feeding neurologic and cancer patients followed during 10 months since their HEN programme inclusion. 201 patients were included, 131 (65.2%) with neurological diseases and 70 (34.8%) with neoplasm. There were not significant differences between groups in age, days with HEN and mortality rate at the end of the study period (35.1% in neurologic patients and 40% in cancer ones). 27.1% of cancer patients had resumed full oral nutrition after ten months from the beginning of the study, whereas only 10.7% of neurologic patients did (p < 0.05). In the three measurement phases (initial, past-3 and past-6 months) KI values were higher for cancer patients than for neurologic ones (p < 0.001). In both groups we didn't found statistically significant differences in KI along the three measurements. A significant relation was observed overall between initial KI values and average survival after 10 months (p < 0.001), and an inverse relation was found between the former and mortality rate (p < 0.001). KI is a useful tool to predict mortality rate in cancer and neurologic patients under HEN.

Pre-Kidney Transplant Lower Extremity Impairment and Post-Kidney Transplant Mortality.

PubMed

Nastasi, A J; McAdams-DeMarco, M A; Schrack, J; Ying, H; Olorundare, I; Warsame, F; Mountford, A; Haugen, C E; González Fernández, M; Norman, S P; Segev, D L

2018-01-01

Prediction models for post-kidney transplantation mortality have had limited success (C-statistics ≤0.70). Adding objective measures of potentially modifiable factors may improve prediction and, consequently, kidney transplant (KT) survival through intervention. The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) is an easily administered objective test of lower extremity function consisting of three parts (balance, walking speed, chair stands), each with scores of 0-4, for a composite score of 0-12, with higher scores indicating better function. SPPB performance and frailty (Fried frailty phenotype) were assessed at admission for KT in a prospective cohort of 719 KT recipients at Johns Hopkins Hospital (8/2009 to 6/2016) and University of Michigan (2/2013 to 12/2016). The independent associations between SPPB impairment (SPPB composite score ≤10) and composite score with post-KT mortality were tested using adjusted competing risks models treating graft failure as a competing risk. The 5-year posttransplantation mortality for impaired recipients was 20.6% compared to 4.5% for unimpaired recipients (p < 0.001). Impaired recipients had a 2.30-fold (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-4.74, p = 0.02) increased risk of postkidney transplantation mortality compared to unimpaired recipients. Each one-point decrease in SPPB score was independently associated with a 1.19-fold (95% CI 1.09-1.30, p < 0.001) higher risk of post-KT mortality. SPPB-derived lower extremity function is a potentially highly useful and modifiable objective measure for pre-KT risk prediction. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Risk models for mortality following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Choke, E; Lee, K; McCarthy, M; Nasim, A; Naylor, A R; Bown, M; Sayers, R

2012-12-01

To develop and validate an "in house" risk model for predicting perioperative mortality following elective AAA repair and to compare this with other models. Multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for perioperative-day mortality from one tertiary institution's prospectively maintained database. Consecutive elective open (564) and endovascular (589) AAA repairs (2000-2010) were split randomly into development (810) and validation (343) data sets. The resultant model was compared to Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Modified Customised Probability Index (m-CPI), CPI, the Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) model and the Medicare model. Variables associated with perioperative mortality included: increasing age (P = 0.034), myocardial infarct within last 10 years (P = 0.0008), raised serum creatinine (P = 0.005) and open surgery (P = 0.0001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted probability of 30-day mortality in development and validation data sets were 0.79 and 0.82 respectively. AUCs for GAS, m-CPI and CPI were poor (0.63, 0.58 and 0.58 respectively), whilst VGNW and Medicare model were fair (0.73 and 0.79 respectively). In this study, an "in-house" developed and validated risk model has the most accurate discriminative value in predicting perioperative mortality after elective AAA repair. For purposes of comparative audit with case mix adjustments, national models such as the VGNW or Medicare models should be used. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality for patients admitted with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a real-world study using the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

PubMed

Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Batin, P D; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Hall, A S

2008-11-01

Although early thrombolysis reduces the risk of death in STEMI patients, mortality remains high. We evaluated factors predicting inpatient mortality for patients with STEMI in a "real-world" population. Analysis of the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database using multivariate logistic regression and area under the receiver operating curve analysis. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 34 722 patients with STEMI from 1 January 2003 to 31 March 2005. Inpatient mortality was 10.6%. The highest odds ratios for inpatient survival were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, independently associated with a mortality risk reduction of over half. A 10-year increase in age doubled inpatient mortality risk, whereas cerebrovascular disease increased it by 1.7. The risk model comprised 14 predictors of mortality, C index = 0.82 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.83, p<0.001). A simple model comprising age, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) offered a C index of 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80, p<0.001). The strongest predictors of in-hospital survival for STEMI were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, Previous STEMI models have focused on age, SBP and HR We have confirmed the importance of these predictors in the discrimination of death after STEMI, but also demonstrated that other potentially modifiable variables impact upon the prediction of short-term mortality.

Serum creatinine and bilirubin predict renal failure and mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Terg, Rubén; Gadano, Adrian; Cartier, Mariano; Casciato, Paola; Lucero, Romina; Muñoz, Alberto; Romero, Gustavo; Levi, Diana; Terg, Gonzalo; Miguez, Carlos; Abecasis, Raquel

2009-03-01

Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) are at a high risk for renal failure and death despite successful treatment of infection. Intravenous (IV) albumin administration combined with antibiotic treatment has been shown to significantly decrease these risks. Clinical evidence is lacking on which patients are appropriate candidates for albumin treatment. To retrospectively analyse the usefulness of serum creatinine and bilirubin levels in predicting renal failure and mortality of patients hospitalized for SBP. Between March 1995 and September 1998, 127 cirrhotic patients with SBP who had not received plasma expansion were evaluated. Eighty-one patients (64%) were classified as having a high risk for renal failure and mortality (serum bilirubin >4 mg/dl or serum creatinine >1 mg/dl) and 46 (36%) as having a low risk. At admission, 36.3% of all patients presented renal failure. Mortality during their hospitalization was 23% among those with a high risk and 6.5% among those with a low risk (P=0.01). Renal failure occurred in 23% of the high-risk patients, compared with 2.6% of the low-risk patients (P=0.006). The presence of hyponatraemia was significantly associated with higher mortality and renal failure in the high-risk group. Our retrospective review of patients with SBP suggests that serum bilirubin levels >4 mg and serum creatinine levels >1 mg/dl at the time of diagnosis represent significant risk factors for the clinical outcomes of patients with SBP. Patients without these risk factors may have a very low likelihood of death or renal failure.

Effect of marital quality on eight-year survival of patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Rohrbaugh, Michael J; Shoham, Varda; Coyne, James C

2006-10-15

Recent evidence suggests that psychosocial factors such as self-efficacy, psychological distress, perceived social support, and marital quality have prognostic significance for morbidity and mortality after heart failure. Previously, we reported that interview and observational measures of marital quality obtained from 189 patients with heart failure (139 men and 50 women) and their spouses predicted all-cause patient mortality during the next 4 years, independent of the baseline illness severity (New York Heart Association class). We present additional follow-up results for this sample, with Cox regression analyses showing that a couple-level composite measure of marital quality continued to predict survival during an 8-year period (p <0.001), especially when the patient was a woman, and did so substantially better than individual (patient-level) risk and protective factors, such as psychological distress, hostility, neuroticism, self-efficacy, optimism, and breadth of perceived emotional support. In conclusion, relationship factors may be especially relevant in managing a difficult chronic condition such as heart failure, which makes stringent and complex demands on patients and their families.

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Characterization of gastrointestinal hemorrhage and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Kim, Su Hwan; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Kim, Won; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Hwi Young; Jung, Yong Jin; Jeong, Ji Bong; Kim, Ji Won; Lee, Kook Lae

2016-04-01

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) often accompanies alcoholic hepatitis (AH). The study aimed to investigate clinical characteristics of GIB in AH patients and to identify risk factors for mortality in AH patients with GIB. Data from 329 patients hospitalized with AH in a single center during 1999-2014 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with AH were dichotomized into GIB and non-GIB groups. The GIB group was further divided into portal hypertensive bleeding (PHB) and non-PHB groups. Clinical characteristics and survival outcomes were compared between the groups. Risk factors for mortality were analyzed using Cox regression. Among the 329 AH patients, 132 experienced GIB at admission or during hospitalization. The most common cause of GIB was an esophageal varix. The GIB group had worse survival outcomes than the non-GIB group (log-rank test, P = 0.034). The PHB group had worse survival outcomes than the non-PHB group (log-rank test, P = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, alcohol consumption, ascites, encephalopathy, infection, Maddrey's discriminant function, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score independently predicted mortality in the entire AH cohort. The MELD score (hazard ratio, 1.085; 95% confidence interval, 1.052-1.120; P < 0.001) and PHB (hazard ratio, 2.162; 95% confidence interval, 1.021-4.577; P = 0.044) were significant prognosticators for patients with AH and GIB. The presence of PHB and a higher MELD score adversely affected survival in AH patients with GIB. Accordingly, prompt endoscopic examination for exploring the etiologies of GIB may alert physicians to predict the risk of death in AH patients with GIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A proposal for a comprehensive risk scoring system for predicting postoperative complications in octogenarian patients with medically operable lung cancer: JACS1303.

PubMed

Saji, Hisashi; Ueno, Takahiko; Nakamura, Hiroshige; Okumura, Norihito; Tsuchida, Masanori; Sonobe, Makoto; Miyazaki, Takuro; Aokage, Keiju; Nakao, Masayuki; Haruki, Tomohiro; Ito, Hiroyuki; Kataoka, Kazuhiko; Okabe, Kazunori; Tomizawa, Kenji; Yoshimoto, Kentaro; Horio, Hirotoshi; Sugio, Kenji; Ode, Yasuhisa; Takao, Motoshi; Okada, Morihito; Chida, Masayuki

2018-04-01

Although some retrospective studies have reported clinicopathological scoring systems for predicting postoperative complications and survival outcomes for elderly lung cancer patients, optimized scoring systems remain controversial. The Japanese Association for Chest Surgery (JACS) conducted a nationwide multicentre prospective cohort and enrolled a total of 1019 octogenarians with medically operable lung cancer. Details of the clinical factors, comorbidities and comprehensive geriatric assessment were recorded for 895 patients to develop a comprehensive risk scoring (RS) system capable of predicting severe complications. Operative (30 days) and hospital mortality rates were 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. Complications were observed in 308 (34%) patients, of whom 81 (8.4%) had Grade 3-4 severe complications. Pneumonia was the most common severe complication, observed in 27 (3.0%) patients. Five predictive factors, gender, comprehensive geriatric assessment75: memory and Simplified Comorbidity Score (SCS): diabetes mellitus, albumin and percentage vital capacity, were identified as independent predictive factors for severe postoperative complications (odds ratio = 2.73, 1.86, 1.54, 1.66 and 1.61, respectively) through univariate and multivariate analyses. A 5-fold cross-validation was performed as an internal validation to reconfirm these 5 predictive factors (average area under the curve 0.70). We developed a simplified RS system as follows: RS = 3 (gender: male) + 2 (comprehensive geriatric assessment 75: memory: yes) + 2 (albumin: <3.8 ng/ml) + 1 (percentage vital capacity: ≤90) + 1 (SCS: diabetes mellitus: yes). The current series shows that octogenarians can be successfully treated for lung cancer with surgical resection with an acceptable rate of severe complications and mortality. We propose a simplified RS system to predict severe complications in octogenarian patients with medically operative lung cancer. JACS1303 (UMIN000016756).

Predictive Factors of Mortality in Burn Patients

PubMed Central

Fazeli, Shahram; Karami-Matin, Reza; Kakaei, Neda; Pourghorban, Samira; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Safari-Faramani, Bahare

2014-01-01

Background: Burn injuries impose a considerable burden on healthcare systems in Iran. It is among the top ten causes of mortality and a main cause of disability. Objectives: This study aimed to examine factors influencing mortality in burn patients admitted to the main educational tertiary referral hospital in Kermanshah. Patients and Methods: All patients admitted to the Imam Khomeini Hospital (from March 2011 to March 2012), due to thermal burn injuries were included in the study. We applied multiple logistic regressions to identify risk and protective factors of mortality. Also we calculated lethal area fifty percent (LA50), as an aggregate index for hospital quality. Results: During the study period, 540 burn patients were admitted. Male to female ratio was 1.12:1. Twenty three percent of the patients were less than 15 years-old. Median of age was 25 years (Inter Quartile Range, 16 - 37). Overall, probability of death was 25.8%. Lethal area fifty percent (LA50) was 50.82 (CI 95%: 47.76 - 54.48). In the final model, after adjustment of sex, age, total body surface area (TBSA), cause of burn and it’s severity, female gender (P < 0.05), age ≥ 60 years (in comparison with age less than 15 years, P < 0.05) and larger burn size (P < 0.0001) were identified as the main risk factors of death in these patients. Conclusions: Findings showed that the main risk factors of death were female gender, burn size and old age. Directing more attention to these vulnerable patients is required to reduce mortality and improve patient survival. PMID:24719826

Elevations in growth hormone and glucagon-like peptide-2 levels on admission are associated with increased mortality in trauma patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rowan, Matthew P.; Beckman, Darrick J.; Rizzo, Julie A.

Burn and trauma patients present a clinical challenge due to metabolic derangements and hypermetabolism that result in a prolonged catabolic state with impaired healing and secondary complications, including ventilator dependence. Previous work has shown that circulating levels of growth hormone (GH) are predictive of mortality in critically ill adults, but few studies have examined the prognostic potential of GH levels in adult trauma patients. Here, our objective is to investigate the utility of GH and other endocrine responses in the prediction of outcomes, we conducted a prospective, observational study of adult burn and trauma patients. We evaluated the serum concentrationmore » of GH, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and glucagon-like peptide-2 (GLP-2) weekly for up to 6 weeks in 36 adult burn and trauma patients admitted between 2010 and 2013. As a result, non-survivors had significantly higher levels of GH and GLP-2 on admission than survivors. This study demonstrates that GH has potential as a predictor of mortality in critically ill trauma and burn patients. Future studies will focus on not only the role of GH, but also GLP-2, which was shown to correlate with mortality in this study with a goal of offering early, targeted therapeutic interventions aimed at decreasing mortality in the critically injured. GH and GLP-2 may have clinical utility for outcome prediction in adult trauma patients.« less

Elevations in growth hormone and glucagon-like peptide-2 levels on admission are associated with increased mortality in trauma patients

DOE PAGES

Rowan, Matthew P.; Beckman, Darrick J.; Rizzo, Julie A.; ...

2016-10-04

Burn and trauma patients present a clinical challenge due to metabolic derangements and hypermetabolism that result in a prolonged catabolic state with impaired healing and secondary complications, including ventilator dependence. Previous work has shown that circulating levels of growth hormone (GH) are predictive of mortality in critically ill adults, but few studies have examined the prognostic potential of GH levels in adult trauma patients. Here, our objective is to investigate the utility of GH and other endocrine responses in the prediction of outcomes, we conducted a prospective, observational study of adult burn and trauma patients. We evaluated the serum concentrationmore » of GH, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and glucagon-like peptide-2 (GLP-2) weekly for up to 6 weeks in 36 adult burn and trauma patients admitted between 2010 and 2013. As a result, non-survivors had significantly higher levels of GH and GLP-2 on admission than survivors. This study demonstrates that GH has potential as a predictor of mortality in critically ill trauma and burn patients. Future studies will focus on not only the role of GH, but also GLP-2, which was shown to correlate with mortality in this study with a goal of offering early, targeted therapeutic interventions aimed at decreasing mortality in the critically injured. GH and GLP-2 may have clinical utility for outcome prediction in adult trauma patients.« less

Prevalence of multiple organ dysfunction in the pediatric intensive care unit: Pediatric Risk of Mortality III versus Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction scores for mortality prediction

PubMed Central

Hamshary, Azza Abd Elkader El; Sherbini, Seham Awad El; Elgebaly, HebatAllah Fadel; Amin, Samah Abdelkrim

2017-01-01

Objectives To assess the frequency of primary multiple organ failure and the role of sepsis as a causative agent in critically ill pediatric patients; and calculate and evaluate the accuracy of the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) scores to predict the outcomes of critically ill children. Methods Retrospective study, which evaluated data from patients admitted from January to December 2011 in the pediatric intensive care unit of the Children's Hospital of the University of Cairo. Results Out of 237 patients in the study, 72% had multiple organ dysfunctions, and 45% had sepsis with multiple organ dysfunctions. The mortality rate in patients with multiple organ dysfunction was 73%. Independent risk factors for death were mechanical ventilation and neurological failure [OR: 36 and 3.3, respectively]. The PRISM III score was more accurate than the PELOD score in predicting death, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow X2 (Chi-square value) of 7.3 (df = 8, p = 0.5). The area under the curve was 0.723 for PRISM III and 0.78 for PELOD. Conclusion A multiple organ dysfunctions was associated with high mortality. Sepsis was the major cause. Pneumonia, diarrhea and central nervous system infections were the major causes of sepsis. PRISM III had a better calibration than the PELOD for prognosis of the patients, despite the high frequency of the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. PMID:28977260

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Risk and prognostic factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia in trauma patients.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Manuela; Ferrer, Miquel; Ferrer, Ricard; Morforte, Ramon; Garnacho, Angel; Torres, Antoni

2006-04-01

To assess the risk and prognostic factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia in trauma patients, with an emphasis on the inflammatory response. Case-control study. Trauma intensive care unit. Of 190 consecutive mechanically ventilated patients, those with microbiologically confirmed pneumonia (n = 62) were matched with 62 controls without pneumonia. None. Clinical, microbiological, and outcome variables were recorded. Cytokines were measured in serum and blind bronchoalveolar lavage specimens at onset of pneumonia. Multivariate analyses of risk and prognostic factors for ventilator-associated pneumonia were done. Increased severity of head and neck injury (odds ratio, 11.9; p < .001) was the only independent predictor of pneumonia. Among patients with pneumonia, serum levels of interleukin-6 (p = .019) and interleukin-8 (p = .036) at onset of pneumonia were higher in nonresponders to treatment. Moreover, serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (p = .028) and interleukin-6 (p = .007) at onset of pneumonia were higher in nonsurvivors. Mortality in the intensive care unit was 23% in cases and controls. Nonresponse to antimicrobial treatment (odds ratio, 22.2; p = .001) and the use of hyperventilation (p = .021) were independent predictors of mortality in the intensive care unit for patients with pneumonia. Severe head and neck trauma is strongly associated with ventilator-associated pneumonia. A higher inflammatory response is associated with nonresponse to treatment and mortality among patients with pneumonia. Although pneumonia did not influence mortality, nonresponse to treatment independently predicted mortality among these patients.

Quantifying mortal injury of juvenile Chinook salmon exposed to simulated hydro-turbine passage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Richard S.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Gingerich, Andrew J.

A proportion of juvenile Chinook salmon and other salmonids travel through one or more turbines during seaward migration in the Columbia and Snake River every year. Despite this understanding, limited information exists on how these fish respond to hydraulic pressures found during turbine passage events. In this study we exposed juvenile Chinook salmon to varied acclimation pressures and subsequent exposure pressures (nadir) to mimic the hydraulic pressures of large Kaplan turbines (ratio of pressure change). Additionally, we varied abiotic (total dissolved gas, rate of pressure change) and biotic (condition factor, fish length, fish weight) factors that may contribute to themore » incidence of mortal injury associated with fish passing through hydro-turbines. We determined that the main factor associated with mortal injury of juvenile Chinook salmon during simulated turbine passage was the ratio between acclimation and nadir pressures. Condition factor, total dissolved gas, and the rate of pressure change were found to only slightly increase the predictive power of equations relating probability of mortal injury to conditions of exposure or characteristics of test fish during simulated turbine passage. This research will assist engineers and fisheries managers in operating and improving hydroelectric facility efficiency while minimizing mortality and injury of turbine-passed juvenile Chinook salmon. The results are discussed in the context of turbine development and the necessity of understanding how different species of fish will respond to the hydraulic pressures of turbine passage.« less

Coronary heart disease risk stratification: pitfalls and possibilities.

PubMed

Negi, Smita; Nambi, Vijay

Atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries, or coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most common cause of mortality in U.S. adults. The pathobiology of atherosclerosis and its complications is a continuum. At one end of the spectrum are young individuals without atherosclerotic disease who have not yet been exposed to lifestyle or other risk factors, and at the other end are patients with manifest atherosclerosis - myocardial infarction, stroke, and disabling peripheral arterial disease - where risk of recurrent disease and death is driven by the same factors initially responsible for the emergence of disease. However, it is clear that while risk factors are important in the development of CHD, not everyone with risk factors develops the disease and not everyone with CHD has risk factors. Furthermore, even similar degrees of exposure to a risk factor leads to disease in some individuals and not in others. Risk prediction, which is crucial in predicting and hence preventing disease, therefore becomes very challenging. In this article we review the currently available risk stratification tools for predicting CHD risk and discuss potential ways to improve risk prediction.

Prognostic value of body mass index in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: A "J"-shaped curve.

PubMed

González-Ferreiro, Rocío; Muñoz-García, Antonio J; López-Otero, Diego; Avanzas, Pablo; Pascual, Isaac; Alonso-Briales, Juan H; Trillo-Nouche, Ramiro; Pun, Federico; Jiménez-Navarro, Manuel F; Hernández-García, José M; Morís, César; González Juanatey, José R

2017-04-01

We aimed to determine whether body mass index (BMI) is a prognostic indicator for long-term, all-cause mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Obesity in patients with established cardiovascular disease has previously been identified as an indicator of good prognosis, a phenomenon known as the "obesity paradox". The prognostic significance of BMI in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AoS) undergoing TAVI is a matter of current debate, as published studies are scarce and their results conflicting. This is an observational, retrospective study involving 770 patients who underwent TAVI for AoS. The cohort was divided into three groups based on their BMI: normal weight (≥18.5 to <25kg/m 2 ), overweight (≥25 to <30kg/m 2 ) and obese (≥30kg/m 2 ). The predictive effect of BMI on all-cause mortality 3years following TAVI intervention was analysed using a Cox regression. 155 patients died during follow-up. The overweight group (n=302, 38.97%), experienced a lower mortality rate compared to the normal weight and obese groups (15.9% vs 25.7% and 21.0%, respectively [log-rank p-value=0.036]). After adjustment by logistic EuroSCORE, being overweight was found to be an independent protective factor against mortality (HR: 0.63 [95% CI: 0.42 to 0.94], p=0.024). This was not the case for obesity (HR: 0.92 [95% CI: 0.63 to 1.35], p=0.664). We therefore describe for the first time, a "J-shaped" regression curve describing the relationship between BMI and mortality. BMI is a predictive factor of all-cause mortality in AoS patients undergoing TAVI. This relationship takes the form of a "J-shaped" curve in which overweight patients are associated with the lowest mortality rate at follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

PubMed

Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

Predictive models for mortality after ruptured aortic aneurysm repair do not predict futility and are not useful for clinical decision making.

PubMed

Thompson, Patrick C; Dalman, Ronald L; Harris, E John; Chandra, Venita; Lee, Jason T; Mell, Matthew W

2016-12-01

The clinical decision-making utility of scoring algorithms for predicting mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs) remains unknown. We sought to determine the clinical utility of the algorithms compared with our clinical decision making and outcomes for management of rAAA during a 10-year period. Patients admitted with a diagnosis rAAA at a large university hospital were identified from 2005 to 2014. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Hardman Index, Vancouver Score, Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score, University of Washington Ruptured Aneurysm Score, Vascular Study Group of New England rAAA Risk Score, and the Artificial Neural Network Score were analyzed for accuracy in predicting mortality. Among patients quantified into the highest-risk group (predicted mortality >80%-85%), we compared the predicted with the actual outcome to determine how well these scores predicted futility. The cohort comprised 64 patients. Of those, 24 (38%) underwent open repair, 36 (56%) underwent endovascular repair, and 4 (6%) received only comfort care. Overall mortality was 30% (open repair, 26%; endovascular repair, 24%; no repair, 100%). As assessed by the scoring systems, 5% to 35% of patients were categorized as high-mortality risk. Intersystem agreement was poor, with κ values ranging from 0.06 to 0.79. Actual mortality was lower than the predicted mortality (50%-70% vs 78%-100%) for all scoring systems, with each scoring system overestimating mortality by 10% to 50%. Mortality rates for patients not designated into the high-risk cohort were dramatically lower, ranging from 7% to 29%. Futility, defined as 100% mortality, was predicted in five of 63 patients with the Hardman Index and in two of 63 of the University of Washington score. Of these, surgery was not offered to one of five and one of two patients, respectively. If one of these two models were used to withhold operative intervention, the mortality of these patients would have been 100%. The actual mortality for these patients was 60% and 50%, respectively. Clinical algorithms for predicting mortality after rAAA were not useful for predicting futility. Most patients with rAAA were not classified in the highest-risk group by the clinical decision models. Among patients identified as highest risk, predicted mortality was overestimated compared with actual mortality. The data from this study support the limited value to surgeons of the currently published algorithms. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Concentration-dependent effect of hypocalcaemia on mortality of patients with critical bleeding requiring massive transfusion: a cohort study.

PubMed

Ho, K M; Leonard, A D

2011-01-01

Mortality of patients with critical bleeding requiring massive transfusion is high. Although hypothermia, acidosis and coagulopathy have been well described as important determinants of mortality in patients with critical bleeding requiring massive transfusion, the risk factors and outcome associated with hypocalcaemia in these patients remain uncertain. This cohort study assessed the relationship between the lowest ionised calcium concentration during the 24-hour period of critical bleeding and the hospital mortality of 352 consecutive patients, while adjusting for diagnosis, acidosis, coagulation results, transfusion requirements and use of recombinant factor VIIa. Hypocalcaemia was common (mean concentrations 0.77 mmol/l, SD 0.19) and had a linear; concentration-dependent relationship with mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.25 per 0.1 mmol/l decrement, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 1.52; P = 0.02). Hypocalcaemia accounted for 12.5% of the variability and was more important than the lowest fibrinogen concentrations (10.8%), acidosis (7.9%) and lowest platelet counts (7.7%) in predicting hospital mortality. The amount of fresh frozen plasma transfused (OR 1.09 per unit, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.17; P = 0.02) and acidosis (OR 1.45 per 0.1 decrement, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.72; P = 0.01) were associated with the occurrence of severe hypocalcaemia (< 0.8 mmol/l). In conclusion, ionised calcium concentrations had an inverse concentration-dependent relationship with mortality of patients with critical bleeding requiring massive transfusion. Both acidosis and the amount of fresh frozen plasma transfused were the main risk factors for severe hypocalcaemia. Further research is needed to determine whether preventing ionised hypocalcaemia can reduce mortality of patients with critical bleeding requiring massive transfusion.

The association between A Body Shape Index and mortality: Results from an Australian cohort.

PubMed

Grant, Janet F; Chittleborough, Catherine R; Shi, Zumin; Taylor, Anne W

2017-01-01

It is well recognised that obesity increases the risk of premature death. A Body Shape Index (ABSI) is a formula that uses waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height to predict risk of premature mortality, where a high score (Quartile 4) indicates that a person's WC is more than expected given their height and weight. Our study examines the association between ABSI quartiles and all-cause-, cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality, and primary cause of death. Self-reported demographic and biomedically measured health-related risk factor and weight data was from the baseline stage of the North West Adelaide Health Study (1999-2003, n = 4056), a longitudinal cohort of Australian adults. Death-related information was obtained from the National Death Index. Primary cause of death across ABSI quartiles was examined. The association between mortality and ABSI (quartile and continuous scores) was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards survival model and adjusting for socioeconomic, and self-reported and biomedical risk factors. The proportion of all three types of mortality steadily increased from ABSI Quartile 1 through to Quartile 4. After adjusting for demographic and health-related risk factors, the risk of all-cause mortality was higher for people in ABSI Quartile 4 (HR 2.64, 95% CI 01.56-4.47), and ABSI Quartile 3 (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.15-3.33), with a moderate association for the continuous ABSI score (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18-1.48). ABSI is therefore positively associated with mortality in Australian adults. Different combined measures of obesity such as the ABSI are useful in examining mortality risk.

The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Zhao, Dong; Gu, Dongfeng; Coxson, Pamela; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Cheng, Jun; Liu, Jing; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2008-01-01

Background China will experience an overall growth and aging of its adult population in coming decades. We used a computer model to forecast the future impact of these demographic changes on coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. Methods The CHD Policy Model is a validated state-transition, computer simulation of CHD on a national scale. China-specific CHD risk factor, incidence, case-fatality, and prevalence data were incorporated, and a CHD prediction model was generated from a Chinese cohort study and calibrated to age-specific Chinese mortality rates. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CHD were calculated using standard methods. The projected population of China aged 35–84 years was entered, and CHD events, deaths, and DALYs were simulated over 2000–2029. CHD risk factors other than age and case-fatality were held at year 2000 levels. Sensitivity analyses tested uncertainty regarding CHD mortality coding, the proportion of total deaths attributable to CHD, and case-fatality. Results We predicted 7.8 million excess CHD events (a 69% increase) and 3.4 million excess CHD deaths (a 64% increase) in the decade 2020–2029 compared with 2000–2009. For 2030, we predicted 71% of almost one million annual CHD deaths will occur in persons ≥65 years old, while 67% of the growing annual burden of CHD death and disability will weigh on adults <65 years old. Substituting alternate CHD mortality assumptions led to 17–20% more predicted CHD deaths over 2000–2029, though the pattern of increases in CHD events and deaths over time remained. Conclusion We forecast that absolute numbers of CHD events and deaths will increase dramatically in China over 2010–2029, due to a growing and aging population alone. Recent data suggest CHD risk factor levels are increasing, so our projections may underestimate the extent of the potential CHD epidemic in China. PMID:19036167

Level and change in perceived control predict 19-year mortality: findings from the Americans' changing lives study.

PubMed

Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-10-01

Perceived control plays an important role for health across adulthood and old age. However, little is known about the factors that account for such associations and whether changes in control (or control trajectory) uniquely predict major health outcomes over and above mean levels of control. Using data from the nationwide Americans' Changing Lives Study (House et al., 1990; N = 2,840, M age at T2: 56.32 years, range: 28-99, 64% women), we examined the extent to which mean levels and rates of change in perceived control over 16 years predict all-cause mortality over a 19-year follow-up period. Shared growth-survival models revealed that higher levels of and more positive changes in perceived control were associated with longer survival times, independent of sociodemographic correlates. We found that level effects of control were accounted for by well-being and health factors, whereas the change effects of control were not. Analyses also indicated an age-differential pattern, with the predictive effects of both levels and trajectories of control declining in old age. We discuss possible pathways through which perceived control operates to facilitate key health outcomes and consider how their malleability and effectiveness may change with increasing age.

Outcomes and Complications After Endovascular Treatment of Brain Arteriovenous Malformations: A Prognostication Attempt Using Artificial Intelligence.

PubMed

Asadi, Hamed; Kok, Hong Kuan; Looby, Seamus; Brennan, Paul; O'Hare, Alan; Thornton, John

2016-12-01

To identify factors influencing outcome in brain arteriovenous malformations (BAVM) treated with endovascular embolization. We also assessed the feasibility of using machine learning techniques to prognosticate and predict outcome and compared this to conventional statistical analyses. A retrospective study of patients undergoing endovascular treatment of BAVM during a 22-year period in a national neuroscience center was performed. Clinical presentation, imaging, procedural details, complications, and outcome were recorded. The data was analyzed with artificial intelligence techniques to identify predictors of outcome and assess accuracy in predicting clinical outcome at final follow-up. One-hundred ninety-nine patients underwent treatment for BAVM with a mean follow-up duration of 63 months. The commonest clinical presentation was intracranial hemorrhage (56%). During the follow-up period, there were 51 further hemorrhagic events, comprising spontaneous hemorrhage (n = 27) and procedural related hemorrhage (n = 24). All spontaneous events occurred in previously embolized BAVMs remote from the procedure. Complications included ischemic stroke in 10%, symptomatic hemorrhage in 9.8%, and mortality rate of 4.7%. Standard regression analysis model had an accuracy of 43% in predicting final outcome (mortality), with the type of treatment complication identified as the most important predictor. The machine learning model showed superior accuracy of 97.5% in predicting outcome and identified the presence or absence of nidal fistulae as the most important factor. BAVMs can be treated successfully by endovascular techniques or combined with surgery and radiosurgery with an acceptable risk profile. Machine learning techniques can predict final outcome with greater accuracy and may help individualize treatment based on key predicting factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cause-Specific Mortality in HIV-Positive Patients Who Survived Ten Years after Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

PubMed Central

May, Margaret T.; Vehreschild, Janne; Obel, Niels; Gill, Michael John; Crane, Heidi; Boesecke, Christoph; Samji, Hasina; Grabar, Sophie; Cazanave, Charles; Cavassini, Matthias; Shepherd, Leah; d’Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Smit, Colette; Saag, Michael; Lampe, Fiona; Hernando, Vicky; Montero, Marta; Zangerle, Robert; Justice, Amy C.; Sterling, Timothy; Miro, Jose; Ingle, Suzanne; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

2016-01-01

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996–1999 and survived for more than ten years. Methods We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA. Results During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years. Conclusions Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes. PMID:27525413

Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

2015-03-01

Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

Role of severity and gender in the association between late-life depression and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Jeong, Hyun-Ghang; Lee, Jung Jae; Lee, Seok Bum; Park, Joon Hyuk; Huh, Yoonseok; Han, Ji Won; Kim, Tae Hui; Chin, Ho Jun; Kim, Ki Woong

2013-04-01

Mortality associated with depression may be influenced by severity of depression and gender. We investigated the differential impacts on all-cause mortality of late-life depression by the type of depression (major depressive disorder, MDD; minor depressive disorder, MnDD; subsyndromal depression, SSD) and gender after adjusting comorbid conditions in the randomly sampled elderly. One thousand community-dwelling elderly individuals were enrolled. Standardized face-to-face clinical interviews, neurological examination, and physical examination were conducted to diagnose depressive disorders and comorbid cognitive disorders. Depressive disorders were diagnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) criteria and SSD to study-specific operational criteria. Five-year survivals were compared between groups using Cox proportional hazards models. By the end of 2010, 174 subjects (17.4%) died. Depressive disorder (p = 0.001) and its interaction term with gender (p < 0.001) were significant in predicting five-year survival. MDD was an independent risk factor for mortality in men (hazard ratio = 3.65, 95% confidence interval = 1.67-7.96) whereas MnDD and SSD were not when other risk factors were adjusted. MDD may directly confer the risk of mortality in elderly men whereas non-major depression may be just an indicator of increased mortality in both genders.

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds

Treesearch

Lindsay M. Grayson; Robert A. Progar; Sharon M. Hood

2017-01-01

Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few...

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mortality prediction of head Abbreviated Injury Score and Glasgow Coma Scale: analysis of 7,764 head injuries.

PubMed

Demetriades, Demetrios; Kuncir, Eric; Murray, James; Velmahos, George C; Rhee, Peter; Chan, Linda

2004-08-01

We assessed the prognostic value and limitations of Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and head Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and correlated head AIS with GCS. We studied 7,764 patients with head injuries. Bivariate analysis was performed to examine the relationship of GCS, head AIS, age, gender, and mechanism of injury with mortality. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with mortality. The overall mortality in the group of head injury patients with no other major extracranial injuries and no hypotension on admission was 9.3%. Logistic regression analysis identified head AIS, GCS, age, and mechanism of injury as significant independent risk factors of death. The prognostic value of GCS and head AIS was significantly affected by the mechanism of injury and the age of the patient. Patients with similar GCS or head AIS but different mechanisms of injury or ages had significantly different outcomes. The adjusted odds ratio of death in penetrating trauma was 5.2 (3.9, 7.0), p < 0.0001, and in the age group > or = 55 years the adjusted odds ratio was 3.4 (2.6, 4.6), p < 0.0001. There was no correlation between head AIS and GCS (correlation coefficient -0.31). Mechanism of injury and age have a major effect in the predictive value of GCS and head AIS. There is no good correlation between GCS and head AIS.

Variation in Risk-Standardized Mortality of Stroke among Hospitals in Japan.

PubMed

Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Yasunaga, Hideo

2015-01-01

Despite recent advances in care, stroke remains a life-threatening disease. Little is known about current hospital mortality with stroke and how it varies by hospital in a national clinical setting in Japan. Using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database (a national inpatient database in Japan), we identified patients aged ≥ 20 years who were admitted to the hospital with a primary diagnosis of stroke within 3 days of stroke onset from April 2012 to March 2013. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict in-hospital death for each patient with patient-level factors, including age, sex, type of stroke, Japan Coma Scale, and modified Rankin Scale. We defined risk-standardized mortality ratio as the ratio of the actual number of in-hospital deaths to the expected number of such deaths for each hospital. A hospital-level multivariable linear regression was modeled to analyze the association between risk-standardized mortality ratio and hospital-level factors. We performed a patient-level Cox regression analysis to examine the association of in-hospital death with both patient-level and hospital-level factors. Of 176,753 eligible patients from 894 hospitals, overall in-hospital mortality was 10.8%. The risk-standardized mortality ratio for stroke varied widely among the hospitals; the proportions of hospitals with risk-standardized mortality ratio categories of ≤ 0.50, 0.51-1.00, 1.01-1.50, 1.51-2.00, and >2.00 were 3.9%, 47.9%, 41.4%, 5.2%, and 1.5%, respectively. Academic status, presence of a stroke care unit, higher hospital volume and availability of endovascular therapy had a significantly lower risk-standardized mortality ratio; distance from the patient's residence to the hospital was not associated with the risk-standardized mortality ratio. Our results suggest that stroke-ready hospitals play an important role in improving stroke mortality in Japan.

Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Battle, Ceri E; Hutchings, Hayley; Evans, Phillip A

2012-01-01

The risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma have neither been well established or summarised. To summarise the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients based on available evidence in the literature. A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from their introduction until May 2010. Additional studies were identified by hand-searching bibliographies and contacting relevant clinical experts. Grey literature was sought by searching abstracts from all Emergency Medicine conferences. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used to reduce the number of missed studies. A two step study selection process was used. All published and unpublished observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. A two step data extraction process using pre-defined data fields, including study quality indicators. Each study was appraised using a previously designed quality assessment tool and the STROBE checklist. Where sufficient data were available, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Mantel-Haenszel method for the risk factors investigated. The I(2) statistic was calculated for combined studies in order to assess heterogeneity. Age, number of rib fractures, presence of pre-existing disease and pneumonia were found to be related to mortality in 29 identified studies. Combined odds ratio of 1.98 (1.86-2.11, 95% CI), 2.02 (1.89-2.15, 95% CI), 2.43 (1.03-5.72, 95% CI) and 5.24 (3.51-7.82) for mortality were calculated for blunt chest wall trauma patients aged 65 years or more, with three or more rib fractures, pre-existing conditions and pneumonia respectively. The risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma were a patient age of 65 years or more, three or more rib fractures and the presence of pre-existing disease especially cardiopulmonary disease. The development of pneumonia post injury was also a significant risk factor for mortality. As a result of the variable quality in the studies, the results of the selected studies should be interpreted with caution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic utility of plasma S100A12 levels to establish a novel scoring system for predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective observational study in Japan

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background S100A12 protein is an endogenous receptor ligand for advanced glycation end products. In this study, the plasma S100A12 level was assessed as an independent predictor of mortality, and its utility in clinical settings was examined. Methods In a previous cross-sectional study, plasma S100A12 levels were measured in 550 maintenance hemodialysis patients to determine the association between S100A12 and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this prospective study, the risk of mortality within a two-year period was determined. An integer scoring system was developed to predict mortality on the basis of the plasma S100A12 levels. Results Higher plasma S100A12 levels (≥18.79 ng/mL) were more closely associated with higher all-cause mortality than lower plasma S100A12 levels (<18.79 ng/mL; P = 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed higher plasma S100A12 levels [hazard ratio (HR), 2.267; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.195–4.302; P = 0.012], age ≥65 years (HR, 1.961; 95%CI, 1.017–3.781; P = 0.044), serum albumin levels <3.5 g/dL (HR, 2.198; 95%CI, 1.218–3.968; P = 0.012), and history of CVD (HR, 2.068; 95%CI, 1.146–3.732; P = 0.016) to be independent predictors of two-year all-cause mortality. The integer score was derived by assigning points to these factors and determining total scores. The scoring system revealed trends across increasing scores for predicting the all-cause mortality [c-statistic = 0.730 (0.656–0.804)]. The resulting model demonstrated good discriminative power for distinguishing the validation population of 303 hemodialysis patients [c-statistic = 0.721 (0.627–0.815)]. Conclusion The results indicate that plasma S100A12 level is an independent predictor for two-year all-cause mortality. A simple integer scoring system was therefore established for predicting mortality on the basis of plasma S100A12 levels. PMID:23324110

Mean Platelet Volume (MPV), Platelet Distribution Width (PDW), Platelet Count and Plateletcrit (PCT) as predictors of in-hospital paediatric mortality: a case-control Study.

PubMed

Golwala, Zainab Mohammedi; Shah, Hardik; Gupta, Neeraj; Sreenivas, V; Puliyel, Jacob M

2016-06-01

Thrombocytopenia has been shown to predict mortality. We hypothesize that platelet indices may be more useful prognostic indicators. Our study subjects were children one month to 14 years old admitted to our hospital. To determine whether platelet count, plateletcrit (PCT), mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet distribution width (PDW) and their ratios can predict mortality in hospitalised children. Children who died during hospital stay were the cases. Controls were age matched children admitted contemporaneously. The first blood sample after admission was used for analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the best threshold for measured variables and the ratios studied. Multiple regression analysis was done to identify independent predictors of mortality. Forty cases and forty controls were studied. Platelet count, PCT and the ratios of MPV/Platelet count, MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count, PDW/PCT and MPV × PDW/Platelet count × PCT were significantly different among children who survived compared to those who died. On multiple regression analysis the ratio of MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count and MPV/Platelet count were risk factors for mortality with an odds ratio of 4.31(95% CI, 1.69-10.99), 3.86 (95% CI, 1.53-9.75), 3.45 (95% CI, 1.38-8.64) respectively. In 67% of the patients who died MPV/PCT ratio was above 41.8 and PDW/Platelet count was above 3.86. In 65% of patients who died MPV/Platelet count was above 3.45. The MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count and MPV/Platelet count, in the first sample after admission in this case control study were predictors of mortality and could predict 65% to 67% of deaths accurately.

Periodontitis in older Swedish individuals fails to predict mortality.

PubMed

Renvert, Stefan; Wallin-Bengtsson, Viveca; Berglund, Johan; Persson, Rutger G

2015-03-01

This study aims to assess mortality risk and its association to health aspects in dentate individuals 60 years of age and older. Medical and periodontal data from 870 dentate individuals (age range 60–96) participating in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Blekinge (SNACBlekinge)with survival statistics over 6 years were studied. During 6 years of follow-up, 42/474 of the individuals(8.9 %), who at baseline were between age 60 and 75, and 134/396 individuals of the individuals (33.9 %), who at baseline were ≥75 years, died. Surviving dentate individuals had more teeth (mean 19.3, S.D.±7.9) than those who died (mean 15.9,S.D.±7.3; mean diff 3,3; S.E. mean diff 0.7; 95 % CI 2.0, 4.6;p=0.001). A self-reported history of high blood pressure (F=15.0, p<0.001), heart failure (F=24.5, p<0.001, observed power=0.99), older age (F=34.7, p<0.001), male gender(F=6.3, p<0.01), serum HbA1c with 6.5 % as cutoff level(F=9.3, p=0.002) were factors associated with mortality. A medical diagnosis of heart disease, diabetes, any form of cancer,or periodontitis failed to predict mortality. A self-reported history of angina pectoris, chronic heart failure, elevated serum HbA1c, and few remaining teeth were associated with mortality risk. A professional diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, or periodontitis was not predictive of mortality. Self-health reports are important to observe in the assessment of disease and survival in older individual.

Contrast extravasation on CT angiography predicts hematoma expansion and mortality in acute traumatic subdural hemorrhage.

PubMed

Romero, J M; Kelly, H R; Delgado Almandoz, J E; Hernandez-Siman, J; Passanese, J C; Lev, M H; González, R G

2013-08-01

The presence of active contrast extravasation at CTA predicts hematoma expansion and in-hospital mortality in patients with nontraumatic intracerebral hemorrhage. This study aims to determine the frequency and predictive value of the contrast extravasation in patients with aSDH. We retrospectively reviewed 157 consecutive patients who presented to our emergency department over a 9-year period with aSDH and underwent CTA at admission and a follow-up NCCT within 48 hours. Two experienced readers, blinded to clinical data, reviewed the CTAs to assess for the presence of contrast extravasation. Medical records were reviewed for baseline clinical characteristics and in-hospital mortality. aSDH maximum width in the axial plane was measured on both baseline and follow-up NCCTs, with hematoma expansion defined as >20% increase from baseline. Active contrast extravasation was identified in 30 of 199 discrete aSDHs (15.1%), with excellent interobserver agreement (κ = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.7-0.9). The presence of contrast extravasation indicated a significantly increased risk of hematoma expansion (odds ratio, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.0-10.1; P = .0001) and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 7.6; 95% CI, 2.6-22.3; P = 0.0004). In a multivariate analysis controlled for standard risk factors, the presence of contrast extravasation was an independent predictor of aSDH expansion (P = .001) and in-hospital mortality (P = .0003). Contrast extravasation stratifies patients with aSDH into those at high risk and those at low risk of hematoma expansion and in-hospital mortality. This distinction could affect patient treatment, clinical trial selection, and possible surgical intervention.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

A Two-Biomarker Model Predicts Mortality in the Critically Ill with Sepsis.

PubMed

Mikacenic, Carmen; Price, Brenda L; Harju-Baker, Susanna; O'Mahony, D Shane; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; Radella, Frank; Hahn, William O; Katz, Ronit; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Liles, W Conrad; Wurfel, Mark M

2017-10-15

Improving the prospective identification of patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and sepsis at low risk for organ dysfunction and death is a major clinical challenge. To develop and validate a multibiomarker-based prediction model for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with SIRS and sepsis. A derivation cohort (n = 888) and internal test cohort (n = 278) were taken from a prospective study of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients meeting two of four SIRS criteria at an academic medical center for whom plasma was obtained within 24 hours. The validation cohort (n = 759) was taken from a prospective cohort enrolled at another academic medical center ICU for whom plasma was obtained within 48 hours. We measured concentrations of angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2, IL-6, IL-8, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and soluble Fas. We identified a two-biomarker model in the derivation cohort that predicted mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.83). It performed well in the internal test cohort (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.85) and the external validation cohort (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.83). We determined a model score threshold demonstrating high negative predictive value (0.95) for death. In addition to a low risk of death, patients below this threshold had shorter ICU length of stay, lower incidence of acute kidney injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and need for vasopressors. We have developed a simple, robust biomarker-based model that identifies patients with SIRS/sepsis at low risk for death and organ dysfunction.

Cancer mortality among coke oven workers.

PubMed Central

Redmond, C K

1983-01-01

The OSHA standard for coke oven emissions, which went into effect in January 1977, sets a permissible exposure limit to coke oven emissions of 150 micrograms/m3 benzene-soluble fraction of total particulate matter (BSFTPM). Review of the epidemiologic evidence for the standard indicates an excess relative risk for lung cancer as high as 16-fold in topside coke oven workers with 15 years of exposure or more. There is also evidence for a consistent dose-response relationship in lung cancer mortality when duration and location of employment at the coke ovens are considered. Dose-response models fitted to these same data indicate that, while excess risks may still occur under the OSHA standard, the predicted levels of increased relative risk would be about 30-50% if a linear dose-response model is assumed and 3-7% if a quadratic model is assumed. Lung cancer mortality data for other steelworkers suggest the predicted excess risk has probably been somewhat overestimated, but lack of information on important confounding factors limits further dose-response analysis. PMID:6653539

Single living predicts a higher mortality in both women and men with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Mard, Shan; Nielsen, Finn Erland

2016-09-01

We examined the impact of single living on all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure and determined if this association was modified by gender. This historical cohort study included 637 patients who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology, Herlev Hospital, Denmark, between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2007. Baseline clinical data were obtained from patient records. Data on survival rates were obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to compute the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality, controlling for confounding factors. The median follow-up time was 2.8 years. A total of 323 (50.7%) patients died during the follow-up period. After adjustment for confounding factors, risk of death was associated with being single (HR = 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.96)). In a gender-stratified analysis, the risk of death did not differ among single-living women and men. Single living is a prognostic determinant of all-cause mortality in men and women with chronic heart failure. none. not relevant.

Cardiovascular Comorbidity and Mortality in Men With Prostate Cancer Treated With Brachytherapy-Based Radiation With or Without Hormonal Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nanda, Akash, E-mail: akash.nanda@orlandohealth.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Moran, Brian J.

Purpose: To assess the impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors and sequelae on the risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) in men treated for prostate cancer (PC). Methods and Materials: The study cohort comprised 5077 men with PC consecutively treated with curative intent between 1997 and 2006 at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center. Cox and Fine and Gray's competing risks regression multivariable analyses were performed, assessing whether cardiovascular comorbidity impacted the risk of ACM and PC-specific mortality, respectively, adjusting for CAD risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, or hypertension) and sequelae (congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction), age, year andmore » type of treatment, and known PC prognostic factors. Results: When compared with men with no comorbidity there was a significantly increased risk of ACM in men with congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.96, P<.001) and in men with diabetes mellitus (AHR 1.60, P=.03) and hypertension (AHR 1.25, P=.04). In contrast, men with hypercholesterolemia had a similar risk of ACM (AHR 0.68, P=.17) when compared with men with no comorbidity. Other factors associated with a significantly increased risk of ACM included age (AHR 1.09, P<.001), prostate-specific antigen level (AHR 1.25, P=.008), and Gleason score 8-10 disease (AHR 1.71, P=.003). Cardiovascular comorbidity did not impact the risk of PC-specific mortality. Conclusions: In addition to age and unfavorable PC prognostic factors, select CAD risk factors and sequelae are associated with an increased risk of ACM in men treated for PC. These comorbidity prognostic factors predict time courses of mortality from competing causes, which may be factored into the decision-making process when considering management options for PC in a given individual.« less

The risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of soluble programmed death-1 on patients with sepsis in emergency department.

PubMed

Zhao, Yongzhen; Jia, Yumei; Li, Chunsheng; Fang, Yingying; Shao, Rui

2018-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) for risk stratification and prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis, we compared serum sPD-1 with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. A total of 60 healthy volunteers and 595 emergency department (ED) patients were recruited for this prospective cohort study. According to the severity of their condition on ED arrival, the patients were allocated to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome group (130 cases), sepsis group (276 cases), severe sepsis group (121 cases), and septic shock group (68 cases). In addition, all patients with sepsis were also divided into the survivor group (349 cases) and nonsurvivor group (116 cases) according to the 28-day outcomes. When the severity of sepsis increased, the levels of sPD-1 gradually increased. The levels of sPD-1, PCT, CRP and the MEDS score were also higher in the nonsurvivor group compared to the survivor group. Logistic regression suggested that sPD-1, PCT, and the MEDS score were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Area under the curve (AUC) of sPD-1, PCT and the MEDS score for 28-day mortality was 0.725, 0.693, and 0.767, respectively, and the AUC was improved when all 3 factors were combined (0.843). Serum sPD-1 is positively correlated with the severity of sepsis, and it is valuable for risk stratification of patients and prediction of 28-day mortality. Combining sPD-1 with PCT and the MEDS score improves the prognostic evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis.

PubMed

Elhai, Muriel; Meune, Christophe; Boubaya, Marouane; Avouac, Jérôme; Hachulla, Eric; Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Airò, Paolo; Joven, Beatriz; Vettori, Serena; Cozzi, Franco; Ullman, Susanne; Czirják, László; Tikly, Mohammed; Müller-Ladner, Ulf; Caramaschi, Paola; Distler, Oliver; Iannone, Florenzo; Ananieva, Lidia P; Hesselstrand, Roger; Becvar, Radim; Gabrielli, Armando; Damjanov, Nemanja; Salvador, Maria J; Riccieri, Valeria; Mihai, Carina; Szücs, Gabriella; Walker, Ulrich A; Hunzelmann, Nicolas; Martinovic, Duska; Smith, Vanessa; Müller, Carolina de Souza; Montecucco, Carlo Maurizio; Opris, Daniela; Ingegnoli, Francesca; Vlachoyiannopoulos, Panayiotis G; Stamenkovic, Bojana; Rosato, Edoardo; Heitmann, Stefan; Distler, Jörg H W; Zenone, Thierry; Seidel, Matthias; Vacca, Alessandra; Langhe, Ellen De; Novak, Srdan; Cutolo, Maurizio; Mouthon, Luc; Henes, Jörg; Chizzolini, Carlo; Mühlen, Carlos Alberto von; Solanki, Kamal; Rednic, Simona; Stamp, Lisa; Anic, Branimir; Santamaria, Vera Ortiz; De Santis, Maria; Yavuz, Sule; Sifuentes-Giraldo, Walter Alberto; Chatelus, Emmanuel; Stork, Jiri; Laar, Jacob van; Loyo, Esthela; García de la Peña Lefebvre, Paloma; Eyerich, Kilian; Cosentino, Vanesa; Alegre-Sancho, Juan Jose; Kowal-Bielecka, Otylia; Rey, Grégoire; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Allanore, Yannick

2017-11-01

To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Cholesterol efflux capacity is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary artery disease: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Liu, Chaoqun; Zhang, Yuan; Ding, Ding; Li, Xinrui; Yang, Yunou; Li, Qing; Zheng, Yuanzhu; Wang, Dongliang; Ling, Wenhua

2016-06-01

Although diminished cholesterol efflux capacity is positively related with prevalent coronary artery disease, its prognostic value for incident cardiovascular events remains a topic of debate. This work aims to investigate the association between cholesterol efflux capacity and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. We measured cholesterol efflux capacity at baseline in 1737 patients with coronary artery disease from the Guangdong Coronary Artery Disease Cohort. During 6645 person-years of follow-up, 166 deaths were registered, 122 of which were caused by cardiovascular diseases. After multivariate adjustment for factors related to cardiovascular diseases, the hazard ratios of cholesterol efflux capacity in the fourth quartile compared with those in the bottom quartile were 0.24 (95% confidence intervals 0.13-0.44) for all-cause mortality (P < 0.001), and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals 0.08-0.39) for cardiovascular mortality (P < 0.001). Adding cholesterol efflux capacity to a model containing traditional cardiovascular risk factors significantly increases its discriminatory power and predictive ability for all-cause (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79 versus 0.76, P = 0.001; net reclassification improvement 14.5%, P = 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement 0.016, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81 versus 0.78, P = 0.001; net reclassification improvement 18.4%, P < 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement 0.015, P < 0.001) death, respectively. Cholesterol efflux capacity may serve as an independent measure for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial).

PubMed

Popovic, Batric; Girerd, Nicolas; Rossignol, Patrick; Agrinier, Nelly; Camenzind, Edoardo; Fay, Renaud; Pitt, Bertram; Zannad, Faiez

2016-11-15

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg were inconsistently associated with survival, whereas none of the TIMI score items, aside from age, were significantly associated with MI recurrence. Using a constructed predictive model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting outcomes in patients with perforated gastroduodenal ulcers: artificial neural network modelling indicates a highly complex disease.

PubMed

Søreide, K; Thorsen, K; Søreide, J A

2015-02-01

Mortality prediction models for patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have not yielded consistent or highly accurate results. Given the complex nature of this disease, which has many non-linear associations with outcomes, we explored artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the complex interactions between the risk factors of PPU and death among patients with this condition. ANN modelling using a standard feed-forward, back-propagation neural network with three layers (i.e., an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer) was used to predict the 30-day mortality of consecutive patients from a population-based cohort undergoing surgery for PPU. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess model accuracy. Of the 172 patients, 168 had their data included in the model; the data of 117 (70%) were used for the training set, and the data of 51 (39%) were used for the test set. The accuracy, as evaluated by area under the ROC curve (AUC), was best for an inclusive, multifactorial ANN model (AUC 0.90, 95% CIs 0.85-0.95; p < 0.001). This model outperformed standard predictive scores, including Boey and PULP. The importance of each variable decreased as the number of factors included in the ANN model increased. The prediction of death was most accurate when using an ANN model with several univariate influences on the outcome. This finding demonstrates that PPU is a highly complex disease for which clinical prognoses are likely difficult. The incorporation of computerised learning systems might enhance clinical judgments to improve decision making and outcome prediction.

Ability of King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Scores to Predict Mortality of Patients With Acute Liver Failure: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

McPhail, Mark J W; Farne, Hugo; Senvar, Naz; Wendon, Julia A; Bernal, William

2016-04-01

Several prognostic factors are used to identify patients with acute liver failure (ALF) who require emergency liver transplantation. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the accuracy of King's College criteria (KCC) versus the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores in predicting hospital mortality among patients with ALF. We performed a systematic search of the literature for articles published from 2001 through 2015 that compared the accuracy of the KCC with MELD scores in predicting hospital mortality in patients with ALF. We identified 23 studies (comprising 2153 patients) and assessed the quality of data, and then performed a meta-analysis of pooled sensitivity and specificity values, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and summary receiver operating characteristic curves. Subgroups analyzed included study quality, era, location (Europe vs non-Europe), and size; ALF etiology (acetaminophen-associated ALF [AALF] vs nonassociated [NAALF]); and whether or not the study included patients who underwent liver transplantation and if the study center was also a transplant center. The DOR for the KCC was 5.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7-7.6; 57% heterogeneity) and the DOR for MELD score was 7.0 (95% CI, 5.1-9.7; 48% heterogeneity), so the MELD score and KCC are comparable in overall accuracy. The summary area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values was 0.76 for the KCC and 0.78 for MELD scores. The KCC identified patients with AALF who died with 58% sensitivity (95% CI, 51%-65%) and 89% specificity (95% CI, 85%-93%), whereas MELD scores identified patients with AALF who died with 80% sensitivity (95% CI, 74%-86%) and 53% specificity (95% CI, 47%-59%). The KCC predicted hospital mortality in patients with NAALF with 58% sensitivity (95% CI, 54%-63%) and 74% specificity (95% CI, 69%-78%), whereas MELD scores predicted hospital mortality in patients with NAALF with 76% sensitivity (95% CI, 72%-80%) and 73% specificity (95% CI, 69%-78%). In patients with AALF, the KCC's DOR was 10.4 (95% CI, 4.9-22.1) and the MELD score's DOR was 6.6 (95% CI, 2.1-20.2). In patients with NAALF, the KCC's DOR was 4.16 (95% CI, 2.34-7.40) and the MELD score's DOR was 8.42 (95% CI, 5.98-11.88). Based on a meta-analysis of studies, the KCC more accurately predicts hospital mortality among patients with AALF, whereas MELD scores more accurately predict mortality among patients with NAALF. However, there is significant heterogeneity among studies and neither system is optimal for all patients. Given the importance of specificity in decision making for listing for emergency liver transplantation, MELD scores should not replace the KCC in predicting hospital mortality of patients with AALF, but could have a role for NAALF. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

PubMed

Sundin, Per-Ola; Sjöström, Per; Jones, Ian; Olsson, Lovisa A; Udumyan, Ruzan; Grubb, Anders; Lindström, Veronica; Montgomery, Scott

2017-04-01

Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2  = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

PubMed

Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

2016-04-01

There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality benefit. Delta inflation may explain the number of "negative" studies in this field of research.

Contribution of Maternal Antiretroviral Therapy and Breastfeeding to 24-Month Survival in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Exposed Uninfected Children: An Individual Pooled Analysis of African and Asian Studies.

PubMed

Arikawa, Shino; Rollins, Nigel; Jourdain, Gonzague; Humphrey, Jean; Kourtis, Athena P; Hoffman, Irving; Essex, Max; Farley, Tim; Coovadia, Hoosen M; Gray, Glenda; Kuhn, Louise; Shapiro, Roger; Leroy, Valériane; Bollinger, Robert C; Onyango-Makumbi, Carolyne; Lockman, Shahin; Marquez, Carina; Doherty, Tanya; Dabis, François; Mandelbrot, Laurent; Le Coeur, Sophie; Rolland, Matthieu; Joly, Pierre; Newell, Marie-Louise; Becquet, Renaud

2018-05-17

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women increasingly receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Studies suggest HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children face higher mortality than HIV-unexposed children, but most evidence relates to the pre-ART era, breastfeeding of limited duration, and considerable maternal mortality. Maternal ART and prolonged breastfeeding while on ART may improve survival, although this has not been reliably quantified. Individual data on 19 219 HEU children from 21 PMTCT trials/cohorts undertaken from 1995 to 2015 in Africa and Asia were pooled to estimate the association between 24-month mortality and maternal/infant factors, using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted attributable fractions of risks computed using the predict function in the R package "frailtypack" were used to estimate the relative contribution of risk factors to overall mortality. Cumulative incidence of death was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.1-5.9) by age 24 months. Low birth weight (LBW <2500 g, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 2.9), no breastfeeding (aHR, 2.5), and maternal death (aHR, 11.1) were significantly associated with increased mortality. Maternal ART (aHR, 0.5) was significantly associated with lower mortality. At the population level, LBW accounted for 16.2% of 24-month mortality, never breastfeeding for 10.8%, mother not receiving ART for 45.6%, and maternal death for 4.3%; combined, these factors explained 63.6% of deaths by age 24 months. Survival of HEU children could be substantially improved if public health practices provided all HIV-infected mothers with ART and supported optimal infant feeding and care for LBW neonates.

Exercise-induced hypertension, cardiovascular events, and mortality in patients undergoing exercise stress testing: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schultz, Martin G; Otahal, Petr; Cleland, Verity J; Blizzard, Leigh; Marwick, Thomas H; Sharman, James E

2013-03-01

The prognostic relevance of a hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is ill-defined in individuals undergoing exercise stress testing. The study described here was intended to provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature to determine the value of exercise-related blood pressure (BP) (independent of office BP) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality. Online databases were searched for published longitudinal studies reporting exercise-related BP and CV events and mortality rates. We identified for review 12 longitudinal studies with a total of 46,314 individuals without significant coronary artery disease, with total CV event and mortality rates recorded over a mean follow-up of 15.2±4.0 years. After adjustment for age, office BP, and CV risk factors, an HRE at moderate exercise intensity carried a 36% greater rate of CV events and mortality (95% CI, 1.02-1.83, P = 0.039) than that of subjects without an HRE. Additionally, each 10mm Hg increase in systolic BP during exercise at moderate intensity was accompanied by a 4% increase in CV events and mortality, independent of office BP, age, or CV risk factors (95% CI, 1.01-1.07, P = 0.02). Systolic BP at maximal workload was not significantly associated with the outcome of an increased rate of CV, whether analyzed as a categorical (HR=1.49, 95% CI, 0.90-2.46, P = 0.12) or a continuous (HR=1.01, 95% CI, 0.98-1.04, P = 0.53) variable. An HRE at moderate exercise intensity during exercise stress testing is an independent risk factor for CV events and mortality. This highlights the need to determine underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of exercise-induced hypertension.

The use of machine learning for the identification of peripheral artery disease and future mortality risk.

PubMed

Ross, Elsie Gyang; Shah, Nigam H; Dalman, Ronald L; Nead, Kevin T; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2016-11-01

A key aspect of the precision medicine effort is the development of informatics tools that can analyze and interpret "big data" sets in an automated and adaptive fashion while providing accurate and actionable clinical information. The aims of this study were to develop machine learning algorithms for the identification of disease and the prognostication of mortality risk and to determine whether such models perform better than classical statistical analyses. Focusing on peripheral artery disease (PAD), patient data were derived from a prospective, observational study of 1755 patients who presented for elective coronary angiography. We employed multiple supervised machine learning algorithms and used diverse clinical, demographic, imaging, and genomic information in a hypothesis-free manner to build models that could identify patients with PAD and predict future mortality. Comparison was made to standard stepwise linear regression models. Our machine-learned models outperformed stepwise logistic regression models both for the identification of patients with PAD (area under the curve, 0.87 vs 0.76, respectively; P = .03) and for the prediction of future mortality (area under the curve, 0.76 vs 0.65, respectively; P = .10). Both machine-learned models were markedly better calibrated than the stepwise logistic regression models, thus providing more accurate disease and mortality risk estimates. Machine learning approaches can produce more accurate disease classification and prediction models. These tools may prove clinically useful for the automated identification of patients with highly morbid diseases for which aggressive risk factor management can improve outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The psoas muscle transversal diameter predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis on a waiting list for liver transplantation: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Huguet, Audrey; Latournerie, Marianne; Debry, Pauline Houssel; Jezequel, Caroline; Legros, Ludivine; Rayar, Michel; Boudjema, Karim; Guyader, Dominique; Jacquet, Edouard Bardou; Thibault, Ronan

2018-02-09

Malnutrition impairs prognosis in liver cirrhosis. Our aims were to determine (1) if transversal (TPTI) and axial (APTI) psoas thickness indices predict mortality in cirrhotic patients and (2) the feasibility and reproducibility of transversal (TDPM) and axial (ADPM) diameters of the psoas muscle measurements. This was a retrospective study. Inclusion criteria included cirrhosis diagnosis, on liver transplantation waiting list, and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan within the 3 mo preceding list inscription. TDPM and ADPM were measured on a single umbilicus-targeted CT image by non-expert and expert operators. TPTI or APTI (mm/m) were calculated as TDPM or ADPM/height (m). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Cox proportional hazard models were assessed. TPTI and APTI interobserver agreement: κ correlation test. A total of 173 patients were included. Low TPTI was associated with increased mortality: AUC = 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.80). TPTI was the only factor associated with mortality (hazard ratio = 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.76-0.99, P = 0.034). There was an almost perfect interobserver agreement between the two operators: TDPM, κ = 0.97; ADPM, κ = 0.94; P <0.0001. TPTI measured on umbilicus-targeted CT scan before inscription on the waiting list for liver transplantation predicts mortality of cirrhotic patients. TPTI measurement is easy and reliable, even by a non-trained operator, and this is highly feasible in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Mortality Index for Community-Dwelling Elderly Koreans

PubMed Central

Kim, Nan H.; Cho, Hyun J.; Kim, Soriul; Seo, Ji H.; Lee, Hyun J.; Yu, Ji H.; Chung, Hye S.; Yoo, Hye J.; Seo, Ji A.; Kim, Sin Gon; Baik, Sei Hyun; Choi, Dong Seop; Shin, Chol; Choi, Kyung Mook

2016-01-01

Abstract There are very few predictive indexes for long-term mortality among community-dwelling elderly Asian individuals, despite its importance, given the rapid and continuous increase in this population. We aimed to develop 10-year predictive mortality indexes for community-dwelling elderly Korean men and women based on routinely collected clinical data. We used data from 2244 elderly individuals (older than 60 years of age) from the southwest Seoul Study, a prospective cohort study, for the development of a prognostic index. An independent longitudinal cohort of 679 elderly participants was selected from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study in Ansan City for validation. During a 10-year follow-up, 393 participants (17.5%) from the development cohort died. Nine risk factors were identified and weighed in the Cox proportional regression model to create a point scoring system: age, male sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, and hemoglobin. In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 6.6%, 14.8%, 18.2%, and 38.4% among subjects with 1 to 4, 5 to 7, 8 to 9, and ≥10 points, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 5.2%, 12.0%, 16.0%, and 16.0% according to these categories. The C-statistic for the point system was 0.73 and 0.67 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The present study provides valuable information for prognosis among elderly Koreans and may guide individualized approaches for appropriate care in a rapidly aging society. PMID:26844511

Socio-economic and demographic determinants of under-five mortality in rural northern Ghana.

PubMed

Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam; Bawah, Ayaga A; Agorinya, Isaiah; Achana, Fabian S; Awoonor-Williams, John Koku; Oduro, Abraham R; Phillips, James F; Akazili, James

2014-08-21

In spite of global decline in under-five mortality, the goal of achieving MDG 4 still remains largely unattained in low and middle income countries as the year 2015 closes-in. To accelerate the pace of mortality decline, proven interventions with high impact need to be implemented to help achieve the goal of drastically reducing childhood mortality. This paper explores the association between socio-economic and demographic factors and under-five mortality in an impoverished region in rural northern Ghana. We used survey data on 3975 women aged 15-49 who have ever given birth. First, chi-square test was used to test the association of social, economic and demographic characteristics of mothers with the experience of under-five death. Subsequently, we ran a logistic regression model to estimate the relative association of factors that influence childhood mortality after excluding variables that were not significant at the bivariate level. Factors that significantly predict under-five mortality included mothers' educational level, presence of co-wives, age and marital status. Mothers who have achieved primary or junior high school education were 45% less likely to experience under-five death than mothers with no formal education at all (OR = 0.55, p < 0.001). Monogamous women were 22% less likely to experience under-five deaths than mothers in polygamous marriages (OR = 0.78, p = 0.01). Similarly, mothers who were between the ages of 35 and 49 were about eleven times more likely to experience under-five deaths than those below the age of 20 years (OR = 11.44, p < 0.001). Also, women who were married had a 27% less likelihood (OR = 0.73, p = 0.01) of experiencing an under-five death than those who were single, divorced or widowed. Taken independently, maternal education, age, marital status and presence of co-wives are associated with childhood mortality. The relationship of these indicators with women's autonomy, health seeking behavior, and other factors that affect child survival merit further investigation so that interventions could be designed to foster reductions in child mortality by considering the needs and welfare of women including the need for female education, autonomy and socioeconomic well-being.

Impact of Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae Infections in Severely Burned Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

versus nosocomial Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremia: clinical features, treatment outcomes, and clinical implication of antimicrobial resistance . J...antibiotic resistance , strain clonality, and other host factors on morbidity and mortality. All patients with thermal burns infected with K pneumoniae between...revealed that an infection with ESBL-producing K pneumoniae during the hospital stay was the factor most predictive of death, with a nearly 4-fold increased

Derivation and validation of in-hospital mortality prediction models in ischaemic stroke patients using administrative data.

PubMed

Lee, Jason; Morishima, Toshitaka; Kunisawa, Susumu; Sasaki, Noriko; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Ikai, Hiroshi; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-01-01

Stroke and other cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death and disability. Predicting in-hospital mortality in ischaemic stroke patients can help to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches. Chart reviews provide important clinical information for mortality prediction, but are laborious and limiting in sample sizes. Administrative data allow for large-scale multi-institutional analyses but lack the necessary clinical information for outcome research. However, administrative claims data in Japan has seen the recent inclusion of patient consciousness and disability information, which may allow more accurate mortality prediction using administrative data alone. The aim of this study was to derive and validate models to predict in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for ischaemic stroke using administrative data. The sample consisted of 21,445 patients from 176 Japanese hospitals, who were randomly divided into derivation and validation subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed using 7- and 30-day and overall in-hospital mortality as dependent variables. Independent variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities upon admission, Japan Coma Scale (JCS) score, Barthel Index score, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, and admissions after hours and on weekends/public holidays. Models were developed in the derivation subgroup, and coefficients from these models were applied to the validation subgroup. Predictive ability was analysed using C-statistics; calibration was evaluated with Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) tests. All three models showed predictive abilities similar or surpassing that of chart review-based models. The C-statistics were highest in the 7-day in-hospital mortality prediction model, at 0.906 and 0.901 in the derivation and validation subgroups, respectively. For the 30-day in-hospital mortality prediction models, the C-statistics for the derivation and validation subgroups were 0.893 and 0.872, respectively; in overall in-hospital mortality prediction these values were 0.883 and 0.876. In this study, we have derived and validated in-hospital mortality prediction models for three different time spans using a large population of ischaemic stroke patients in a multi-institutional analysis. The recent inclusion of JCS, Barthel Index, and mRS scores in Japanese administrative data has allowed the prediction of in-hospital mortality with accuracy comparable to that of chart review analyses. The models developed using administrative data had consistently high predictive abilities for all models in both the derivation and validation subgroups. These results have implications in the role of administrative data in future mortality prediction analyses. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Clinical Predictors of Hospital Mortality Differ Between Direct and Indirect ARDS.

PubMed

Luo, Liang; Shaver, Ciara M; Zhao, Zhiguo; Koyama, Tatsuki; Calfee, Carolyn S; Bastarache, Julie A; Ware, Lorraine B

2017-04-01

Direct (pulmonary) and indirect (extrapulmonary) ARDS are distinct syndromes with important pathophysiologic differences. The goal of this study was to determine whether clinical characteristics and predictors of mortality differ between direct or indirect ARDS. This retrospective observational cohort study included 417 patients with ARDS. Each patient was classified as having direct (pneumonia or aspiration, n = 250) or indirect (nonpulmonary sepsis or pancreatitis, n = 167) ARDS. Patients with direct ARDS had higher lung injury scores (3.0 vs 2.8; P < .001), lower Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scores (51 vs 62; P < .001), lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (27 vs 30; P < .001), and fewer nonpulmonary organ failures (1 vs 2; P < .001) compared with patients with indirect ARDS. Hospital mortality was similar (28% vs 31%). In patients with direct ARDS, age (OR, 1.29 per 10 years; P = .01; test for interaction, P = .03), lung injury scores (OR, 2.29 per point; P = .001; test for interaction, P = .058), and number of nonpulmonary organ failures (OR, 1.67; P = .01) were independent risk factors for increased hospital mortality. Preexisting diabetes mellitus was an independent risk factor for reduced hospital mortality (OR, 0.47; P = .04; test for interaction, P = .02). In indirect ARDS, only the number of organ failures was an independent predictor of mortality (OR, 2.08; P < .001). Despite lower severity of illness and fewer organ failures, patients with direct ARDS had mortality rates similar to patients with indirect ARDS. Factors previously associated with mortality during ARDS were only associated with mortality in direct ARDS. These findings suggest that direct and indirect ARDS have distinct features that may differentially affect risk prediction and clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of MELD score and Maddrey discriminant function for mortality prediction in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Monsanto, Pedro; Almeida, Nuno; Lrias, Clotilde; Pina, Jos Eduardo; Sofia, Carlos

2013-01-01

Maddrey discriminant function (DF) is the traditional model for evaluating the severity and prognosis in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). However, MELD has also been used for this purpose. We aimed to determine the predictive parameters and compare the ability of Maddrey DF and MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH. Retrospective study of 45 patients admitted in our department with AH between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were collected. MELD and Maddrey DF were calculated on admission. Short-term mortality was assessed at 30 and 90 days. Student t-test, χ2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. Thirty-day and 90-day mortality was 27% and 42%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, Maddrey DF was the only independent predictor of mortality for these two periods. Receiver operating characteristic curves for Maddrey DF revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for a Maddrey DF greater than 65 and 60, respectively. Discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for MELD was low. AH remains associated with a high short-term mortality. Maddrey DF is a more valuable model than MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH.

Comparison of AIMS65, Glasgow–Blatchford score, and Rockall score in a European series of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: performance when predicting in-hospital and delayed mortality

PubMed Central

Martínez-Cara, Juan G; Jiménez-Rosales, Rita; Úbeda-Muñoz, Margarita; de Hierro, Mercedes López; de Teresa, Javier

2015-01-01

Objective AIMS65 is a score designed to predict in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and costs of gastrointestinal bleeding. Our aims were to revalidate AIMS65 as predictor of inpatient mortality and to compare AIMS65’s performance with that of Glasgow–Blatchford (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) with regard to mortality, and the secondary outcomes of a composite endpoint of severity, transfusion requirements, rebleeding, delayed (6-month) mortality, and length of stay. Methods The study included 309 patients. Clinical and biochemical data, transfusion requirements, endoscopic, surgical, or radiological treatments, and outcomes for 6 months after admission were collected. Clinical outcomes were in-hospital mortality, delayed mortality, rebleeding, composite endpoint, blood transfusions, and length of stay. Results In receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses, AIMS65, GBS, and RS were similar when predicting inpatient mortality (0.76 vs. 0.78 vs. 0.78). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AIMS65 and GBS were identical (0.62 vs. 0.62). AIMS65 was useless when predicting rebleeding compared to GBS or RS (0.56 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.71). GBS was better at predicting the need for transfusions. No patient with AIMS65 = 0, GBS ≤ 6, or RS ≤ 4 died. Considering the composite endpoint, an AIMS65 of 0 did not exclude high risk patients, but a GBS ≤ 1 or RS ≤ 2 did. The three scores were similar in predicting prolonged in-hospital stay. Delayed mortality was better predicted by AIMS65. Conclusion AIMS65 is comparable to GBS and RS in essential endpoints such as inpatient mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and length of stay. GBS is a better score predicting rebleeding and the need for transfusion, but AIMS65 shows a better performance predicting delayed mortality. PMID:27403303

Reductions in Cardiovascular Risk After Bariatric Surgery

PubMed Central

Benraoune, Fethi; Litwin, Sheldon E.

2012-01-01

Purpose of review Obesity is commonly associated with multiple conditions imparting adverse cardiovascular risk including, hypertension, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance or diabetes. In addition, sleep disordered breathing, inflammation, left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrial enlargement and subclinical left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunction may collectively contribute to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This review will describe improvements in cardiovascular risk factors after bariatric surgery. Recent findings All of the cardiovascular risk factors listed above are improved or even resolved after bariatric surgery. Cardiac structure and function also have shown consistent improvement after surgically-induced weight loss. The amount of improvement in cardiac risk factors is generally proportional to the amount of weight lost. The degree of weight loss varies with different bariatric procedures. Based on the improvement in risk profiles, it has been predicted that progression of atherosclerosis could be slowed and the 10 year risk of cardiac events would decline by ~ 50% in patients undergoing weight loss surgery. In keeping with these predictions, 2 studies have demonstrated reductions in 10-year total and cardiovascular mortality of approximately 50% in patients who had bariatric surgery. Summary These encouraging data support the continued, and perhaps expanded use of surgical procedures to induce weight loss in severely obese patients. PMID:21934498

The cystatin C/creatinine ratio, a marker of glomerular filtration quality: associated factors, reference intervals, and prediction of morbidity and mortality in healthy seniors.

PubMed

Purde, Mette-Triin; Nock, Stefan; Risch, Lorenz; Medina Escobar, Pedro; Grebhardt, Chris; Nydegger, Urs E; Stanga, Zeno; Risch, Martin

2016-03-01

The ratio of cystatin C (cysC) to creatinine (crea) is regarded as a marker of glomerular filtration quality associated with cardiovascular morbidities. We sought to determine reference intervals for serum cysC-crea ratio in seniors. Furthermore, we sought to determine whether other low-molecular weight molecules exhibit a similar behavior in individuals with altered glomerular filtration quality. Finally, we investigated associations with adverse outcomes. A total of 1382 subjectively healthy Swiss volunteers aged 60 years or older were enrolled in the study. Reference intervals were calculated according to Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guideline EP28-A3c. After a baseline exam, a 4-year follow-up survey recorded information about overall morbidity and mortality. The cysC-crea ratio (mean 0.0124 ± 0.0026 mg/μmol) was significantly higher in women and increased progressively with age. Other associated factors were hemoglobin A1c, mean arterial pressure, and C-reactive protein (P < 0.05 for all). Participants exhibiting shrunken pore syndrome had significantly higher ratios of 3.5-66.5 kDa molecules (brain natriuretic peptide, parathyroid hormone, β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, retinol-binding protein, thyroid-stimulating hormone, α1-acid glycoprotein, lipase, amylase, prealbumin, and albumin) and creatinine. There was no such difference in the ratios of very low-molecular weight molecules (urea, uric acid) to creatinine or in the ratios of molecules larger than 66.5 kDa (transferrin, haptoglobin) to creatinine. The cysC-crea ratio was significantly predictive of mortality and subjective overall morbidity at follow-up in logistic regression models adjusting for several factors. The cysC-crea ratio exhibits age- and sex-specific reference intervals in seniors. In conclusion, the cysC-crea ratio may indicate the relative retention of biologically active low-molecular weight compounds and can independently predict the risk for overall mortality and morbidity in the elderly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Duncan Lutes

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species - white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. &...

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J D; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. The last three Demographic and Health Surveys - conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 - enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality.

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Results Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality. PMID:26562142

Prevalent vertebral deformities predict increased mortality and increased fracture rate in both men and women: a 10-year population-based study of 598 individuals from the Swedish cohort in the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Hasserius, R; Karlsson, M K; Nilsson, B E; Redlund-Johnell, I; Johnell, O

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a prevalent vertebral deformity predicts mortality and fractures in both men and women. In the city of Malmö, 598 individuals (298 men, 300 women; age 50-80 years) were selected from the city's population and were included in the Swedish part of the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (EVOS). At baseline the participants answered a questionnaire and lateral spine radiographs were performed. The prevalence of subjects with vertebral deformity was assessed using a morphometric method. The mortality during a 10-year follow-up period was determined through the register of the National Swedish Board of Health and Welfare. Eighty-five men and 43 women died during the study period. The subsequent fracture incidence during the follow-up period was ascertained by postal questionnaires, telephone interviews and by a survey of the archives of the Department of Radiology in the city hospital. Thirty-seven men and 69 women sustained a fracture during the study period. Data are presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) within brackets. Prevalent vertebral deformity, defined as a reduction by more than 3 standard deviations (SD) in vertebral height ratio, predicted mortality during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.9)] and women [age-adjusted HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.3)]. In men there was an increased mortality due to cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases and in women due to cancer. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any fracture during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4-5.3)] and women [age-adjusted HR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1-2.9)]. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any subsequent fragility fracture in women [age-adjusted HR 2.0 (95% CI 1.1-3.5)]; however, in men the increased risk was nonsignificant [age-adjusted HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.7-5.1)]. In summary, a prevalent vertebral deformity can predict both increased mortality and increased fracture incidence during the following decade in both men and women. We conclude that prevalent vertebral deformity could be used as a risk factor in both genders for mortality and future fracture.

East-West gradient in cardio-vascular mortality in Austria: how much can we explain by following the pattern of risk factors?

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Various studies show major regional differences in the prevalence of cardio-vascular disease morbidity and mortality, both in Europe and within European countries. In Austria, these differences are documented by an East-West gradient with declining morbidity and mortality rates when moving from the East to the West of the country. It was the aim of this study to analyse if, and to what extent, socio-demographic and socio-economic determinants, social resources and health behaviour can contribute to the clarification of this East-West gradient by conducting secondary analyses of an existing Austrian health dataset. Results The data were analysed using bivariate analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. These analyses revealed significant East-West gradients for various risk factors, as well as socio-demographic and socio-economic health determinants. There was a gradual decrease of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, and psycho-social discomfort in both sexes, with the highest prevalences in those Austrian regions with the highest cardio-vascular mortality and a stepwise decrease to the regions with the lowest cardio-vascular mortality. Controlling for educational level significantly raised the odds for diabetes, hypertension and obesity. In the results of the multivariate analyses, factors that significantly and independently predicted diabetes mellitus were geographic location, psycho-social discomfort, lack of physical exercise, and age in both sexes. For women these factors additionally included a low educational level, lack of social support, and being born abroad. Conclusions Our study shows a clear gradual decline of cardio-vascular mortality and some of its risk factors from East to West in Austria. Concerning these risk factors, the geographic region and psycho-social discomfort showed the greatest association with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and obesity. Hence, they contribute to the explanation of the variance in spatial cardio-vascular disease mortality. Yet, a large proportion of this variance remains unexplained. It would be of great importance to public health and preventive measures to take a closer look at spatial differences in cardio-vascular disease morbidity and mortality to better tailor programmes to the regional environments and settings. Our results also call for a greater importance of preventative measures for psycho-social discomfort and increase of social support. PMID:22082341

An antenatal prediction model for adverse birth outcomes in an urban population: The contribution of medical and non-medical risks.

PubMed

Posthumus, A G; Birnie, E; van Veen, M J; Steegers, E A P; Bonsel, G J

2016-07-01

in the Netherlands the perinatal mortality rate is high compared to other European countries. Around eighty percent of perinatal mortality cases is preceded by being small for gestational age (SGA), preterm birth and/or having a low Apgar-score at 5 minutes after birth. Current risk detection in pregnancy focusses primarily on medical risks. However, non-medical risk factors may be relevant too. Both non-medical and medical risk factors are incorporated in the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction (R4U) scorecard. We investigated the associations between R4U risk factors and preterm birth, SGA and a low Apgar score. a prospective cohort study under routine practice conditions. six midwifery practices and two hospitals in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 836 pregnant women. the R4U scorecard was filled out at the booking visit. after birth, the follow-up data on pregnancy outcomes were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to fit models for the prediction of any adverse outcome (preterm birth, SGA and/or a low Apgar score), stratified for ethnicity and socio-economic status (SES). factors predicting any adverse outcome for Western women were smoking during the first trimester and over-the-counter medication. For non-Western women risk factors were teenage pregnancy, advanced maternal age and an obstetric history of SGA. Risk factors for high SES women were low family income, no daily intake of vegetables and a history of preterm birth. For low SES women risk factors appeared to be low family income, non-Western ethnicity, smoking during the first trimester and a history of SGA. the presence of both medical and non-medical risk factors early in pregnancy predict the occurrence of adverse outcomes at birth. Furthermore the risk profiles for adverse outcomes differed according to SES and ethnicity. to optimise effective risk selection, both medical and non-medical risk factors should be taken into account in midwifery and obstetric care at the booking visit. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Clinical and pathological factors influencing survival in a large cohort of triple-negative breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Urru, Silvana Anna Maria; Gallus, Silvano; Bosetti, Cristina; Moi, Tiziana; Medda, Ricardo; Sollai, Elisabetta; Murgia, Alma; Sanges, Francesca; Pira, Giovanna; Manca, Alessandra; Palmas, Dolores; Floris, Matteo; Asunis, Anna Maria; Atzori, Francesco; Carru, Ciriaco; D'Incalci, Maurizio; Ghiani, Massimo; Marras, Vincenzo; Onnis, Daniela; Santona, Maria Cristina; Sarobba, Giuseppina; Valle, Enrichetta; Canu, Luisa; Cossu, Sergio; Bulfone, Alessandro; Rocca, Paolo Cossu; De Miglio, Maria Rosaria; Orrù, Sandra

2018-01-08

To provide further information on the clinical and pathological prognostic factors in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), for which limited and inconsistent data are available. Pathological characteristics and clinical records of 841 TNBCs diagnosed between 1994 and 2015 in four major oncologic centers from Sardinia, Italy, were reviewed. Multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and recurrence according to various clinicopathological factors were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. After a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, 275 (33.3%) TNBC patients had a progression of the disease and 170 (20.2%) died. After allowance for study center, age at diagnosis, and various clinicopathological factors, all components of the TNM staging system were identified as significant independent prognostic factors for TNBC mortality. The HRs were 3.13, 9.65, and 29.0, for stage II, III and IV, respectively, vs stage I. Necrosis and Ki-67 > 16% were also associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.61 and 1.99, respectively). Patients with tumor histotypes other than ductal invasive/lobular carcinomas had a more favorable prognosis (HR: 0.40 vs ductal invasive carcinoma). No significant associations with mortality were found for histologic grade, tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, and lymphovascular invasion. Among lymph node positive TNBCs, lymph node ratio appeared to be a stronger predictor of mortality than pathological lymph nodes stage (HR: 0.80 for pN3 vs pN1, and 3.05 for >0.65 vs <0.21 lymph node ratio), respectively. Consistent results were observed for cancer recurrence, except for Ki-67 and necrosis that were not found to be significant predictors for recurrence. This uniquely large study of TNBC patients provides further evidence that, besides tumor stage at diagnosis, lymph node ratio among lymph node positive tumors is an additional relevant predictor of survival and tumor recurrence, while Ki-67 seems to be predictive of mortality, but not of recurrence.

Distinct Age and Self-Rated Health Crossover Mortality Effects for African Americans: Evidence from a National Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Roth, David L.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Crews, Deidra C.; Howard, Virginia J.; Locher, Julie L.

2016-01-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may “crossover” at about 75 to 80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality crossover effect and other longevity disparities. PMID:27015163

Distinct age and self-rated health crossover mortality effects for African Americans: Evidence from a national cohort study.

PubMed

Roth, David L; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Crews, Deidra C; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L

2016-05-01

The predictive effects of age and self-rated health (SRH) on all-cause mortality are known to differ across race and ethnic groups. African American adults have higher mortality rates than Whites at younger ages, but this mortality disparity diminishes with advancing age and may "crossover" at about 75-80 years of age, when African Americans may show lower mortality rates. This pattern of findings reflects a lower overall association between age and mortality for African Americans than for Whites, and health-related mechanisms are typically cited as the reason for this age-based crossover mortality effect. However, a lower association between poor SRH and mortality has also been found for African Americans than for Whites, and it is not known if the reduced age and SRH associations with mortality for African Americans reflect independent or overlapping mechanisms. This study examined these two mortality predictors simultaneously in a large epidemiological study of 12,181 African Americans and 17,436 Whites. Participants were 45 or more years of age when they enrolled in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between 2003 and 2007. Consistent with previous studies, African Americans had poorer SRH than Whites even after adjusting for demographic and health history covariates. Survival analysis models indicated statistically significant and independent race*age, race*SRH, and age*SRH interaction effects on all-cause mortality over an average 9-year follow-up period. Advanced age and poorer SRH were both weaker mortality risk factors for African Americans than for Whites. These two effects were distinct and presumably tapped different causal mechanisms. This calls into question the health-related explanation for the age-based mortality crossover effect and suggests that other mechanisms, including behavioral, social, and cultural factors, should be considered in efforts to better understand the age-based mortality crossover effect and other longevity disparities. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The influence of mortality and socioeconomic status on risk and delayed rewards: a life history theory approach.

PubMed

Griskevicius, Vladas; Tybur, Joshua M; Delton, Andrew W; Robertson, Theresa E

2011-06-01

Why do some people take risks and live for the present, whereas others avoid risks and save for the future? The evolutionary framework of life history theory predicts that preferences for risk and delay in gratification should be influenced by mortality and resource scarcity. A series of experiments examined how mortality cues influenced decisions involving risk preference (e.g., $10 for sure vs. 50% chance of $20) and temporal discounting (e.g., $5 now vs. $10 later). The effect of mortality depended critically on whether people grew up in a relatively resource-scarce or resource-plentiful environment. For individuals who grew up relatively poor, mortality cues led them to value the present and gamble for big immediate rewards. Conversely, for individuals who grew up relatively wealthy, mortality cues led them to value the future and avoid risky gambles. Overall, mortality cues appear to propel individuals toward diverging life history strategies as a function of childhood socioeconomic status, suggesting important implications for how environmental factors influence economic decisions and risky behaviors. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in TBI-related mortality: Interrelationships between Genetics and Acute Systemic and CNS BDNF Profiles

PubMed Central

Failla, Michelle D.; Conley, Yvette P.; Wagner, Amy K.

2015-01-01

Background Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) were protective in acute mortality. Post-acutely, these genotypes carried lower mortality risk in older adults, and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Objective Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Methods CSF and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n=203), and in controls (n=10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. Results CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (p=0.061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (p=0.042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (p<0.0001). Both gene*BDNF serum and gene*age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (p=0.07). Conclusions BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene*age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. PMID:25979196

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in Traumatic Brain Injury-Related Mortality: Interrelationships Between Genetics and Acute Systemic and Central Nervous System BDNF Profiles.

PubMed

Failla, Michelle D; Conley, Yvette P; Wagner, Amy K

2016-01-01

Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) can be protective against acute mortality. Postacutely, these genotypes carry lower mortality risk in older adults and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n = 203) and in controls (n = 10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (P = .061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (P = .042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (P < .0001). Both gene * BDNF serum and gene * age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (P = .07). BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene * age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. © The Author(s) 2015.

Creation of mortality risk charts using 123I meta-iodobenzylguanidine heart-to-mediastinum ratio in patients with heart failure: 2- and 5-year risk models.

PubMed

Nakajima, Kenichi; Nakata, Tomoaki; Matsuo, Shinro; Jacobson, Arnold F

2016-10-01

(123)I meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging has been extensively used for prognostication in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The purpose of this study was to create mortality risk charts for short-term (2 years) and long-term (5 years) prediction of cardiac mortality. Using a pooled database of 1322 CHF patients, multivariate analysis, including (123)I-MIBG late heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and clinical factors, was performed to determine optimal variables for the prediction of 2- and 5-year mortality risk using subsets of the patients (n = 1280 and 933, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to create risk charts. Cardiac mortality was 10 and 22% for the sub-population of 2- and 5-year analyses. A four-parameter multivariate logistic regression model including age, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, LVEF, and HMR was used. Annualized mortality rate was <1% in patients with NYHA Class I-II and HMR ≥ 2.0, irrespective of age and LVEF. In patients with NYHA Class III-IV, mortality rate was 4-6 times higher for HMR < 1.40 compared with HMR ≥ 2.0 in all LVEF classes. Among the subset of patients with b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) results (n = 491 and 359 for 2- and 5-year models, respectively), the 5-year model showed incremental value of HMR in addition to BNP. Both 2- and 5-year risk prediction models with (123)I-MIBG HMR can be used to identify low-risk as well as high-risk patients, which can be effective for further risk stratification of CHF patients even when BNP is available. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Mortality of Dandy-Walker syndrome in the United States: Analysis by race, gender, and insurance status

PubMed Central

McClelland, Shearwood; Ukwuoma, Onyinyechi I.; Lunos, Scott; Okuyemi, Kolawole S.

2015-01-01

Background: Dandy-Walker syndrome (DWS) is a congenital disorder often diagnosed in early childhood. Typically manifesting with signs/symptoms of increased intracranial pressure, DWS is catastrophic unless timely neurosurgical care can be administered via cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage. The rates of mortality, adverse discharge disposition (ADD), and CSF drainage in DWS may not be uniform regardless of race, gender or insurance status; such differences could reflect disparities in access to neurosurgical care. This study examines these issues on a nationwide level. Materials and Methods: The Kids’ Inpatient Database spanning 1997-2003 was used for analysis. Only patients admitted for DWS (ICD-9-CM = 742.3) were included. Multivariate analysis was adjusted for several variables, including patient age, race, sex, admission type, primary payer, income, and hospital volume. Results: More than 14,000 DWS patients were included. Increasing age predicted reduced mortality (OR = 0.87; P < 0.05), ADD (OR = 0.96; P < 0.05), and decreased likelihood of receiving CSF drainage (OR = 0.86; P < 0.0001). Elective admission type predicted reduced mortality (OR = 0.29; P = 0.0008), ADD (OR = 0.68; P < 0.05), and increased CSF drainage (OR = 2.02; P < 0.0001). African-American race (OR = 1.20; P < 0.05) and private insurance (OR = 1.18; P < 0.05) each predicted increased likelihood of receiving CSF drainage, but were not predictors of mortality or ADD. Gender, income, and hospital volume were not significant predictors of DWS outcome. Conclusion: Increasing age and elective admissions each decrease mortality and ADD associated with DWS. African-American race and private insurance status increase access to CSF drainage. These findings contradict previous literature citing African-American race as a risk factor for mortality in DWS, and emphasize the role of private insurance in obtaining access to potentially lifesaving operative care. PMID:25883477

Body configuration as a predictor of mortality: comparison of five anthropometric measures in a 12 year follow-up of the Norwegian HUNT 2 study.

PubMed

Petursson, Halfdan; Sigurdsson, Johann A; Bengtsson, Calle; Nilsen, Tom I L; Getz, Linn

2011-01-01

Distribution of body fat is more important than the amount of fat as a prognostic factor for life expectancy. Despite that, body mass index (BMI) still holds its status as the most used indicator of obesity in clinical work. We assessed the association of five different anthropometric measures with mortality in general and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in particular using Cox proportional hazards models. Predictive properties were compared by computing integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement for two different prediction models. The measures studied were BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The study population was a prospective cohort of 62,223 Norwegians, age 20-79, followed up for mortality from 1995-1997 to the end of 2008 (mean follow-up 12.0 years) in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT 2). After adjusting for age, smoking and physical activity WHR and WHtR were found to be the strongest predictors of death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD mortality per increase in WHR of one standard deviation were 1.23 for men and 1.27 for women. For WHtR, these HRs were 1.24 for men and 1.23 for women. WHR offered the greatest integrated discrimination improvement to the prediction models studied, followed by WHtR and waist circumference. Hip circumference was in strong inverse association with mortality when adjusting for waist circumference. In all analyses, BMI had weaker association with mortality than three of the other four measures studied. Our study adds further knowledge to the evidence that BMI is not the most appropriate measure of obesity in everyday clinical practice. WHR can reliably be measured and is as easy to calculate as BMI and is currently better documented than WHtR. It appears reasonable to recommend WHR as the primary measure of body composition and obesity.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet.

PubMed

Manuel, Douglas G; Perez, Richard; Sanmartin, Claudia; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Manson, Heather; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C

2016-08-01

Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death-the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)-was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867-0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868-0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet

PubMed Central

Perez, Richard; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C.

2016-01-01

Background Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. Methods A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. Findings The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Conclusions Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population. PMID:27529741

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

PubMed

Tuti, Timothy; Agweyu, Ambrose; Mwaniki, Paul; Peek, Niels; English, Mike

2017-11-13

Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discriminate inpatient mortality risk in non-severe pneumonia and explore whether these factors offer any added benefit over the current criteria used to identify children with pneumonia requiring inpatient care. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2-59 months admitted with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia at 14 public hospitals in Kenya between February 2014 and February 2016. Using machine learning techniques, we analysed whether clinical characteristics and common comorbidities increased the risk of inpatient mortality for non-severe pneumonia. The topmost risk factors were subjected to decision curve analysis to explore if using them as admission criteria had any net benefit above the current criteria. Out of 16,162 children admitted with pneumonia during the study period, 10,687 were eligible for subsequent analysis. Inpatient mortality within this non-severe group was 252/10,687 (2.36%). Models demonstrated moderately good performance; the partial least squares discriminant analysis model had higher sensitivity for predicting mortality in comparison to logistic regression. Elevated respiratory rate (≥70 bpm), age 2-11 months and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) < -3SD were highly discriminative of mortality. These factors ranked consistently across the different models. For a risk threshold probability of 7-14%, there is a net benefit to admitting the patient sub-populations with these features as additional criteria alongside those currently used to classify severe pneumonia. Of the population studied, 70.54% met at least one of these criteria. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were not significantly affected by variations in pneumonia severity classification criteria. Children with non-severe pneumonia aged 2-11 months or with respiratory rate ≥ 70 bpm or very low WAZ experience risks of inpatient mortality comparable to severe pneumonia. Inpatient care is warranted in these high-risk groups of children.

Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Klein, Tamir; Bartlett, Megan; Sack, Lawren; Pellegrini, Adam F A; Choat, Brendan; Jansen, Steven

2016-05-03

Drought-induced tree mortality has been observed globally and is expected to increase under climate change scenarios, with large potential consequences for the terrestrial carbon sink. Predicting mortality across species is crucial for assessing the effects of climate extremes on forest community biodiversity, composition, and carbon sequestration. However, the physiological traits associated with elevated risk of mortality in diverse ecosystems remain unknown, although these traits could greatly improve understanding and prediction of tree mortality in forests. We performed a meta-analysis on species' mortality rates across 475 species from 33 studies around the globe to assess which traits determine a species' mortality risk. We found that species-specific mortality anomalies from community mortality rate in a given drought were associated with plant hydraulic traits. Across all species, mortality was best predicted by a low hydraulic safety margin-the difference between typical minimum xylem water potential and that causing xylem dysfunction-and xylem vulnerability to embolism. Angiosperms and gymnosperms experienced roughly equal mortality risks. Our results provide broad support for the hypothesis that hydraulic traits capture key mechanisms determining tree death and highlight that physiological traits can improve vegetation model prediction of tree mortality during climate extremes.

Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Toua, Rene Elaine; de Kock, Jacques Erasmus; Welzel, Tyson

2016-02-01

Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased risk of mortality in systemic sclerosis-associated digital ulcers: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meunier, Pauline; Dequidt, Laure; Barnetche, Thomas; Lazaro, Estibaliz; Duffau, Pierre; Richez, Christophe; Couzi, Lionel; Truchetet, Marie-Elise; Seneschal, Julien

2018-06-10

Survival can be threatened in certain forms of systemic sclerosis (SSc) so clear prognostic factors are needed. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess the association between the presence of digital ulcers (DUs) and mortality in SSc. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis in the Pubmed and Scopus databases from the earliest records to May 2017. Two research strategies were performed: « systemic sclerosis » and « digital ulcers » (strategy A); « systemic sclerosis » and « mortality » (strategy B). The primary outcome was the mortality associated with the presence of DUs in patients with SSc. The literature search identified 1473 citations. Fifty-nine studies were examined for full text. Ten articles were included for the meta-analysis. SSc patients with DUs had an increased pooled mortality risk: RR = 1.53 (IC 95%: [1.23-1.90]). This meta-analysis revealed a higher mortality in SSc patients with associated DUs. Having DUs may be a predictive factor of developing organ involvement such as pulmonary or cardiovascular events that could be associated with poor survival. It suggests that early screening of DUs in SSc patients is important to identify patients most at risk of poor survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

2010-07-27

The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Vascular robustness: The missing parameter in cardiovascular risk prediction.

PubMed

Kraushaar, Lutz E; Dressel, Alexander; Maßmann, Alexander

2018-03-01

Undetected high risk for premature death of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low-to-moderate risk factor scores is an acknowledged obstacle to CVD prevention. The vasculature's functional robustness against risk factor derailment may serve as a novel discriminator of mortality risk under similar risk factor loads. To test this assumption, we hypothesized that the expected inverse robustness-mortality association is verifiable as a significant trend along the age spectrum of risk factor-challenged cohorts. This is a retrospective cohort study of 372 adults (mean age 56.1 years, range 21-92; 45% female) with a variety of CV risk factors. An arterial model (VascAssist 2, iSYMED GmbH, Germany) was used to derive global parameters of arterial function from non-invasively acquired pulse pressure waves. Participants were stratified by health status: apparently healthy (AH; n = 221); with hypertension and/or hypercholesterolemia (CC; n = 61); with history of CV event(s) (CVE; n = 90). Multivariate linear regression was used to derive a robustness score which was calibrated against the CVD mortality hazard rate of a sub-cohort of the LURIC study (n = 1369; mean age 59.1 years, range 20-75; 37% female). Robustness correlated linearly with calendar age in CC (F(1, 59) = 10.42; p  < 0.01) and CVE (F(1, 88) = 40.34; p  < 0.0001) but not in the AH strata, supporting the hypothesis of preferential elimination of less robust individuals along the aging trajectory under risk factor challenges. Vascular robustness may serve as a biomarker of vulnerability to CVD risk factor challenges, prognosticating otherwise undetectable elevated risk for premature CVD mortality.

Cardiovascular risk factors predictive for survival and morbidity-free survival in the oldest-old Framingham Heart Study participants.

PubMed

Terry, Dellara F; Pencina, Michael J; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Murabito, Joanne M; Wolf, Philip A; Hayes, Margaret Kelly; Levy, Daniel; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Benjamin, Emelia J

2005-11-01

To examine whether midlife cardiovascular risk factors predict survival and survival free of major comorbidities to the age of 85. Prospective community-based cohort study. Framingham Heart Study, Massachusetts. Two thousand five hundred thirty-one individuals (1,422 women) who attended at least two examinations between the ages of 40 and 50. Risk factors were classified at routine examinations performed between the ages of 40 and 50. Stepwise sex-adjusted logistic regression models predicting the outcomes of survival and survival free of morbidity to age 85 were selected from the following risk factors: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, glucose intolerance, cigarette smoking, education, body mass index, physical activity index, pulse pressure, antihypertensive medication, and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy. More than one-third of the study sample survived to age 85, and 22% of the original study sample survived free of morbidity. Lower midlife blood pressure and total cholesterol levels, absence of glucose intolerance, nonsmoking status, higher educational attainment, and female sex predicted overall and morbidity-free survival. The predicted probability of survival to age 85 fell in the presence of accumulating risk factors: 37% for men with no risk factors to 2% with all five risk factors and 65% for women with no risk factors to 14% with all five risk factors. Lower levels of key cardiovascular risk factors in middle age predicted overall survival and major morbidity-free survival to age 85. Recognizing and modifying these factors may delay, if not prevent, age-related morbidity and mortality.

Early mortality in acute promyelocytic leukemia: Potential predictors

PubMed Central

Chen, Can; Huang, Xilian; Wang, Kaile; Chen, Kuang; Gao, Danquan; Qian, Shenxian

2018-01-01

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a rare leukemia characterized by the balanced reciprocal translocation between the promyelocytic leukemia gene on chromosome 15 and the retinoic acid receptor α (RARα) gene on chromosome 17, and accounts for 10–15% of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia each year. The combined use of all-trans retinoic acid and arsenic trioxide (ATO) as primary therapy has markedly improved the survival rate of patients with APL. Mortality in the first 30 days following therapy remains a major contribution to treatment failure. In the present study, published data was reviewed with a focus on the factors associated with early mortality. When treated with ATO as a primary treatment, the fms-like tyrosine kinase-internal tandem deletion has no impact on early mortality. Low lymphoid enhancer binding factor-1 expression may be a reliable marker for early mortality and the target of therapy if it could be proven by further studies. Cluster of differentiation (CD)56+ and CD34+/CD2+ may be candidates to select high-risk patients. The risk of early mortality in APL still cannot be predicted via the cell surface makers, despite multiple studies on their prognostic significance. Typically, a complex translocation did not alter the survival rate in patients with APL; however, if an abnormal karyotype [e.g., Ide(17), ZBTB16/RARα and STAT5B/RARα] appeared singularly or as part of a complex mutation, there is a high possibility of early mortality if clinicians are unable to identify or monitor it. PMID:29541170

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Introduction Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. Methods A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). Results There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Conclusions Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration. PMID:19706163

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.

PubMed

Hampshire, Peter A; Welch, Catherine A; McCrossan, Lawrence A; Francis, Katharine; Harrison, David A

2009-01-01

Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration.

Speed of Heart Rate Recovery in Response to Orthostatic Challenge.

PubMed

McCrory, Cathal; Berkman, Lisa F; Nolan, Hugh; O'Leary, Neil; Foley, Margaret; Kenny, Rose Anne

2016-08-19

Speed of heart rate recovery (HRR) may serve as an important biomarker of aging and mortality. To examine whether the speed of HRR after an orthostatic maneuver (ie, active stand from supine position) predicts mortality. A longitudinal cohort study involving a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling older individuals aged ≥50 years. A total of 4475 participants completed an active stand at baseline as part of a detailed clinic-based cardiovascular assessment. Beat-to-beat heart rate and blood pressure responses to standing were measured during a 2-minute window using a finometer and binned in 10-s intervals. We modeled HRR to the stand by age group, cardiovascular disease burden, and mortality status using a random effects model. Mortality status during a mean follow-up duration of 4.3 years served as the primary end point (n=138). Speed of HRR in the immediate 20 s after standing was a strong predictor of mortality. A 1-bpm slower HRR between 10 and 20 s after standing increased the hazard of mortality by 6% controlling for established risk factors. A clear dose-response relationship was evident. Sixty-nine participants in the slowest HRR quartile died during the observation period compared with 14 participants in the fastest HRR quartile. Participants in the slowest recovery quartile were 2.3× more likely to die compared with those in the fastest recovery quartile. Speed of orthostatic HRR predicts mortality and may aid clinical decision making. Attenuated orthostatic HRR may reflect dysregulation of the parasympathetic branch of the autonomic nervous system. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Acute myeloid leukemia: 2014 update on risk-stratification and management.

PubMed

Estey, Elihu H

2014-11-01

Evidence suggests that even patients aged 70 or above benefit from specific AML therapy. The fundamental decision in AML then becomes whether to recommend standard or investigational treatment. This decision must rest on the likely outcome of standard treatment. Hence we review factors that predict treatment related mortality and resistance to therapy, the latter the principal cause of failure even in patients aged 70 or above. We emphasize the limitations of prediction of resistance based only on pre-treatment factors and stress the need to incorporate post-treatment factors, for example indicators of minimal residual disease. We review various newer therapeutic options and considerations that underlie the decision to recommend allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Response to rituximab-based therapy and risk factor analysis in Epstein Barr Virus-related lymphoproliferative disorder after hematopoietic stem cell transplant in children and adults: a study from the Infectious Diseases Working Party of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

PubMed

Styczynski, Jan; Gil, Lidia; Tridello, Gloria; Ljungman, Per; Donnelly, J Peter; van der Velden, Walter; Omar, Hamdy; Martino, Rodrigo; Halkes, Constantijn; Faraci, Maura; Theunissen, Koen; Kalwak, Krzysztof; Hubacek, Petr; Sica, Simona; Nozzoli, Chiara; Fagioli, Franca; Matthes, Susanne; Diaz, Miguel A; Migliavacca, Maddalena; Balduzzi, Adriana; Tomaszewska, Agnieszka; Camara, Rafael de la; van Biezen, Anja; Hoek, Jennifer; Iacobelli, Simona; Einsele, Hermann; Cesaro, Simone

2013-09-01

 The objective of this analysis was to investigate prognostic factors that influence the outcome of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) after a rituximab-based treatment in the allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) setting.  A total of 4466 allogeneic HSCTs performed between 1999 and 2011 in 19 European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation centers were retrospectively analyzed for PTLD, either biopsy-proven or probable disease.  One hundred forty-four cases of PTLD were identified, indicating an overall EBV-related PTLD frequency of 3.22%, ranging from 1.16% for matched-family donor, 2.86% for mismatched family donor, 3.97% in matched unrelated donors, and 11.24% in mismatched unrelated donor recipients. In total, 69.4% patients survived PTLD. Multivariable analysis showed that a poor response of PTLD to rituximab was associated with an age ≥30 years, involvement of extralymphoid tissue, acute GVHD, and a lack of reduction of immunosuppression upon PTLD diagnosis. In the prognostic model, the PTLD mortality increased with the increasing number of factors: 0-1, 2, or 3 factors being associated with mortality of 7%, 37%, and 72%, respectively (P < .0001). Immunosuppression tapering was associated with a lower PTLD mortality (16% vs 39%), and a decrease of EBV DNAemia in peripheral blood during therapy was predictive of better survival.  More than two-thirds of patients with EBV-related PTLD survived after rituximab-based treatment. Reduction of immunosuppression was associated with improved outcome, whereas older age, extranodal disease, and acute graft-vs-host disease predicted poor outcome.

Outcome of Very Low Birth Weight Infants Over 3 Years Report From an Iranian Center

PubMed Central

Afjeh, Seyyed-Abolfazl; Sabzehei, Mohammad-Kazem; Fallahi, Minoo; Esmaili, Fatemeh

2013-01-01

Objective Very low birth weight (VLBW) infants are at high risk for morbidity and mortality. This article determines the frequency of disease, rate od survival, complications and risk factors for morbidity and mortality in VLBW neonates admitted to a level III neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at Mahdieh Hospital in Tehran. Methods This cross-sectional retrospective study was performed from April 2007 to March 2010 on all hospitalized VLBW neonates. Relevant pre- and peri-natal data up to the time of discharge from the hospital or death, including complications during the course of hospitalization, were collected from the case notes, documented on a pre-designed questionnaire and analyzed. Findings Out of 13197 neonates, 564 (4.3%) were VLBW with 51.4% males. Mean gestational age was 29.6±2.5 weeks; mean birth weight 1179±257 grams. Mean birth weight, gestational age and Apgar scores were significantly higher in babies who survived than in those who died, (1275±189 vs. 944±253 grams; 30.5±2.2 vs. 27.5±2 weeks and 6.9±1.7 vs. 5±2.1 respectively, P<0.001 in all instances). Overall survival was 70.9%; in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) newborns this figure was 33.3% rising to 84.1% in infants weighing between 1001-1500 grams. Respiratory failure resulting from RDS in ELBW babies was the major factor leading to death. Need for mechanical ventilation, pulmonary hemorrhage and gastro-intestinal bleeding were also significant predictive factors for mortality. Conclusion Birth weight and mechanical ventilation are the major factors predicting VLBW survival. PMID:24800021

Outcomes and factors influencing prognosis in patients with vascular pythiosis.

PubMed

Sermsathanasawadi, Nuttawut; Praditsuktavorn, Banjerd; Hongku, Kiattisak; Wongwanit, Chumpol; Chinsakchai, Khamin; Ruangsetakit, Chanean; Hahtapornsawan, Suteekhanit; Mutirangura, Pramook

2016-08-01

Vascular pythiosis, caused by Pythium insidiosum, is associated with a high mortality rate. We reviewed the outcomes and established the factors predicting prognosis of patients treated in our institution with surgery, antifungal therapy, or immunotherapy. We undertook a retrospective record review of patients with vascular pythiosis treated in Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand, between January 2005 and January 2015. Patient characteristics, type of surgery, adjunctive antifungal treatment, adjunctive immunotherapy, and disease status of surgical arterial and surrounding soft tissue margins were recorded. We calculated the mortality rate and established factors predicting prognosis. The records of 11 patients were reviewed. All patients had thalassemia. Nine patients (81.8%) had a history of contact with contaminated water. The clinical presentations were chronic ulcers (45.5%), toe gangrene (27.3%), pulsatile mass (27.3%), and acute limb ischemia (27.3%). Above-knee amputation was required in 10 patients (90.9%). The mortality rate was 36.4%. Independent variables between survivors and nonsurvivors were lack of an arterial disease-free surgical margin (P = .003), lack of a surrounding soft tissue disease-free surgical margin (P < .05), a suprainguinal lesion (P < .05) and duration of symptoms (P < .05). Adjuvant itraconazole, terbinafine, and Pythium vaccine have a role to play in patients with a disease-free arterial surgical margin but in whom infected surrounding soft tissue could not be completely excised. Achieving adequate disease-free surgical margins-especially the arterial margin-at amputation or débridement is the most important prognostic factor in patients with vascular pythiosis. Early detection combined with a multidisciplinary approach to treatment, including surgery, antifungal agents, and immunotherapy, allows the best possible outcome to be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do roads reduce painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) populations?

PubMed

Dorland, Alexandra; Rytwinski, Trina; Fahrig, Lenore

2014-01-01

Road mortality is thought to be a leading cause of turtle population decline. However, empirical evidence of the direct negative effects of road mortality on turtle population abundance is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide a strong test of the prediction that roads reduce turtle population abundance. While controlling for potentially confounding variables, we compared relative abundance of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in 20 ponds in Eastern Ontario, 10 as close as possible to high traffic roads (Road sites) and 10 as far as possible from any major roads (No Road sites). There was no significant effect of roads on painted turtle relative abundance. Furthermore, our data do not support other predictions of the road mortality hypothesis; we observed neither a higher relative frequency of males to females at Road sites than at No Road sites, nor a lower average body size of turtles at Road than at No Road sites. We speculate that, although roads can cause substantial adult mortality in turtles, other factors, such as release from predation on adults and/or nests close to roads counter the negative effect of road mortality in some populations. We suggest that road mitigation for painted turtles can be limited to locations where turtles are forced to migrate across high traffic roads due, for example, to destruction of local nesting habitat or seasonal drying of ponds. This conclusion should not be extrapolated to other species of turtles, where road mortality could have a larger population-level effect than on painted turtles.

Do Roads Reduce Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta) Populations?

PubMed Central

Dorland, Alexandra; Rytwinski, Trina; Fahrig, Lenore

2014-01-01

Road mortality is thought to be a leading cause of turtle population decline. However, empirical evidence of the direct negative effects of road mortality on turtle population abundance is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide a strong test of the prediction that roads reduce turtle population abundance. While controlling for potentially confounding variables, we compared relative abundance of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in 20 ponds in Eastern Ontario, 10 as close as possible to high traffic roads (Road sites) and 10 as far as possible from any major roads (No Road sites). There was no significant effect of roads on painted turtle relative abundance. Furthermore, our data do not support other predictions of the road mortality hypothesis; we observed neither a higher relative frequency of males to females at Road sites than at No Road sites, nor a lower average body size of turtles at Road than at No Road sites. We speculate that, although roads can cause substantial adult mortality in turtles, other factors, such as release from predation on adults and/or nests close to roads counter the negative effect of road mortality in some populations. We suggest that road mitigation for painted turtles can be limited to locations where turtles are forced to migrate across high traffic roads due, for example, to destruction of local nesting habitat or seasonal drying of ponds. This conclusion should not be extrapolated to other species of turtles, where road mortality could have a larger population-level effect than on painted turtles. PMID:24858065

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

PubMed

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of serum interleukin-18 in predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease--systems and clinical approach.

PubMed

Formanowicz, Dorota; Wanic-Kossowska, Maria; Pawliczak, Elżbieta; Radom, Marcin; Formanowicz, Piotr

2015-12-16

The aim of this study was to check if serum interleukin-18 (IL-18) predicts 2-year cardiovascular mortality in patients at various stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and history of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) within the previous year. Diabetes mellitus was one of the key factors of exclusion. It was found that an increase in serum concentration of IL-18 above the cut-off point (1584.5 pg/mL) was characterized by 20.63-fold higher risk of cardiovascular deaths among studied patients. IL-18 serum concentration was found to be superior to the well-known cardiovascular risk parameters, like high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), carotid intima media thickness (CIMT), glomerular filtration rate, albumins, ferritin, N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in prognosis of cardiovascular mortality. The best predictive for IL-18 were 4 variables, such as CIMT, NT-proBNP, albumins and hsCRP, as they predicted its concentration at 89.5%. Concluding, IL-18 seems to be important indicator and predictor of cardiovascular death in two-year follow-up among non-diabetic patients suffering from CKD, with history of AMI in the previous year. The importance of IL-18 in the process of atherosclerotic plaque formation has been confirmed by systems analysis based on a formal model expressed in the language of Petri nets theory.

A Field Synopsis of Sex in Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Paulus, Jessica K.; Wessler, Benjamin S.; Lundquist, Christine; Lai, Lana L.Y.; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S.; Kent, David M.

2017-01-01

Background Several widely-used risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) incorporate sex effects, yet there has been no systematic summary of the role of sex in clinical prediction models (CPMs). To better understand the potential of these models to support sex-specific care, we conducted a field synopsis of sex effects in CPMs for CVD. Methods and Results We identified CPMs in the Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) CPM Registry, a comprehensive database of CVD CPMs published from 1/1990–5/2012. We report the proportion of models including sex effects on CVD incidence or prognosis, summarize the directionality of the predictive effects of sex, and explore factors influencing the inclusion of sex. Of 592 CVD-related CPMs, 193 (33%) included sex as a predictor or presented sex-stratified models. Sex effects were included in 78% (53/68) of models predicting incidence of CVD in a general population, versus only 35% (59/171), 21% (12/58) and 17% (12/72) of models predicting outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and heart failure, respectively. Among sex-including CPMs, women with heart failure were at lower mortality risk in 8/8 models; women undergoing revascularization for CAD were at higher mortality risk in 10/12 models. Factors associated with the inclusion of sex effects included the number of outcome events and using cohorts at-risk for CVD (rather than with established CVD). Conclusions While CPMs hold promise for supporting sex-specific decision making in CVD clinical care, sex effects are included in only one third of published CPMs. PMID:26908865

Postoperative Mortality after Liver Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: Development of a Risk Score and Importance of Biliary Drainage of the Future Liver Remnant

PubMed Central

Wiggers, Jimme K; Koerkamp, Bas Groot; Cieslak, Kasia P; Doussot, Alexandre; van Klaveren, David; Allen, Peter J; Besselink, Marc G; Busch, Olivier R; D’Angelica, Michael I; DeMatteo, Ronald P; Gouma, Dirk J; Kingham, T Peter; van Gulik, Thomas M; Jarnagin, William R

2016-01-01

Background Liver surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) is associated with postoperative mortality ranging from 5% to 18%. The aim of this study was to develop a preoperative risk score for postoperative mortality after liver resection for PHC, and to assess the effect of biliary drainage of the future liver remnant (FLR). Study design A consecutive series of 287 patients submitted to major liver resection for presumed PHC between 1997 and 2014 at two Western centers was analyzed; 228 patients (79%) underwent preoperative drainage for jaundice. FLR volumes were calculated with CT volumetry, and completeness of FLR drainage was assessed on imaging. Logistic regression was used to develop a mortality risk score. Results Postoperative mortality at 90-days was 14%, and was independently predicted by age (Odds ratio [OR] per 10 years 2.1), preoperative cholangitis (OR 4.1), FLR volume below 30% (OR 2.9), portal vein reconstruction (OR 2.3), and incomplete FLR drainage in patients with FLR volume below 50% (OR 2.8). The risk score showed good discrimination (AUC 0.75 after bootstrap validation), and ranking patients in tertiles identified three (low-intermediate-high) risk subgroups with predicted mortalities of 2%, 11%, and 37%. No postoperative mortality was observed in 33 undrained patients with FLR volumes above 50%, including 10 jaundiced patients (median bilirubin level 11 mg/dL). Conclusions The mortality risk score for patients with resectable PHC can be used for patient counseling and identification of modifiable risk factors, which include FLR volume, FLR drainage status, and preoperative cholangitis. We found no evidence to support preoperative biliary drainage in patients with an FLR volume above 50%. PMID:27063572

Impact of coronary artery bypass grafting in elderly patients.

PubMed

Aikawa, Priscila; Cintra, Angélica Rossi Sartori; Leite, Cleber Aparecido; Marques, Ricardo Henrique; da Silva, Claudio Tafarel Mackmillan; Afonso, Max dos Santos; Paulitsch, Felipe da Silva; Oss, Evandro Augusto

2013-03-01

To analyze the results of isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in patients > 65 years-old. Patients undergoing isolated on-pump CABG from December 1st 2010 to July 31th 2012 were divided in two groups: GE (elderly > 65 years-old, n=103) and GA (adults < 65 years-old, n=150). Preoperative data, intraoperative (as cardiopulmonar bypass time, aortic clamping time, time length of stay in mechanical ventilation--MV--and number of grafts), and postoperative variable (as morbidity, mortality and time length of stay in hospital) were analyzed during hospitalization. In GE, the morbidity rate was greater than in GA (30% vs. 14%, P=0.004), but there was no difference in the mortality rate (5.8% vs. 2.0%, P=0.165). In GA, there was higher prevalence DM (39.6% vs. 27%, P=0.043) and smoking (32.2% versus 19.8%, P=0.042); and in GE, higher prevalence of stroke (17% vs. 6.7%, P=0.013). There was no difference between the groups regarding intraoperative variables. After multivariate analysis, age > 65-year-old was associated with greater morbidity, but it was not independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality. Considering in-hospital mortality, stay in ward time length (P=0.006), cardiac (P=0.011) and respiratory complications (P=0.026) were independent predictive factors. This study suggests that patients > 65-year old were at increased risk of postoperative complications when submitted to isolated on-pump CABG in comparison to patients < 65-year-old, but not under increased risk of death.

Complex Responses of Intertidal Molluscan Embryos to a Warming and Acidifying Ocean in the Presence of UV Radiation

PubMed Central

Davis, Andrew R.; Coleman, Daniel; Broad, Allison; Byrne, Maria; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Przeslawski, Rachel

2013-01-01

Climate change and ocean acidification will expose marine organisms to synchronous multiple stressors, with early life stages being potentially most vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. We simultaneously exposed encapsulated molluscan embryos to three abiotic stressors—acidified conditions, elevated temperate, and solar UV radiation in large outdoor water tables in a multifactorial design. Solar UV radiation was modified with plastic filters, while levels of the other factors reflected IPCC predictions for near-future change. We quantified mortality and the rate of embryonic development for a mid-shore littorinid, Bembicium nanum, and low-shore opisthobranch, Dolabrifera brazieri. Outcomes were consistent for these model species with embryos faring significantly better at 26°C than 22°C. Mortality sharply increased at the lowest temperature (22°C) and lowest pH (7.6) examined, producing a significant interaction. Under these conditions mortality approached 100% for each species, representing a 2- to 4-fold increase in mortality relative to warm (26°C) non-acidified conditions. Predictably, development was more rapid at the highest temperature but this again interacted with acidified conditions. Development was slowed under acidified conditions at the lowest temperature. The presence of UV radiation had minimal impact on the outcomes, only slowing development for the littorinid and not interacting with the other factors. Our findings suggest that a warming ocean, at least to a threshold, may compensate for the effects of decreasing pH for some species. It also appears that stressors will interact in complex and unpredictable ways in a changing climate. PMID:23405238

Serum Cystatin C Does Not Predict Mortality or Treatment Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Delaney, Michael P; Stevens, Paul E; Witham, Helen J; Judge, Caroline; Eaglestone, Gillian L; Carter, Joanne L; Bassett, Paul; Lamb, Edmund J

2016-01-01

♦ Small solute clearance, especially that derived from residual renal function (RRF), is an independent risk factor for death in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Assessment of solute clearance is time-consuming and prone to multiple errors. Cystatin C is a small protein which has been used as a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) marker. We investigated whether serum cystatin C concentrations are related to mortality in patients receiving PD. ♦ New and prevalent PD patients (n = 235) underwent assessment of Kt/Vurea, RRF, weekly creatinine clearance (CCr), normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) and a peritoneal equilibration test (PET) at intervals. Blood was collected simultaneously for cystatin C measurement. Patients were followed for a median of 1,429 days (range 12 to 2,964 days) until death or study closure. Cause of death was recorded where given. Cox regression was performed to determine whether cystatin C had prognostic value either independently or with adjustment for other factors (age, sex, dialysis modality, diabetic status, cardiovascular comorbidity, Kt/V, CCr, RRF, nPCR or 4 h dialysate to plasma creatinine ratio (4 h D/Pcr) during the PET). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and treatment failure. ♦ There were 93 deaths. Increasing age and 4 h D/Pcr ratio, decreased RRF and presence of diabetes were significantly [p < 0.05] negatively associated with survival and treatment failure. Serum cystatin C was not related to either outcome. ♦ Serum cystatin C concentration does not predict mortality or treatment failure in patients receiving PD. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality and validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score and Hardman index in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Kurc, Erol; Sanioglu, Soner; Ozgen, Ayca; Aka, Serap Aykut; Yekeler, Ibrahim

2012-06-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and Hardman index in patients operated on because of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and determining preoperative risk factors that affect in-hospital mortality. One hundred one patients operated on to repair a rAAA within the last 10 years were included. The GAS and Hardman index were calculated for each patient separately. The relation between in-hospital mortality and the Hardman index and GAS was analyzed by means of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate methods of analyses were used to determine preoperative risk factors. Average age was 69 ± 8, and in-hospital mortality rate was 51.5%. Analysis of the ROC curve showed that the Hardman index had an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.593-0.800, P = 0.0002) for predicting in-hospital mortality. The GAS had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.680-0.851, P < 0.0001). The results of multivariate analysis revealed the presence of the following preoperative risk factors: age more than 63 years (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% CI, 1.17-16.49, P = 0.028); loss of consciousness (OR, 9.33; 95% CI, 1.94-44.86, P = 0.005); creatinine higher than 1.7 mg/dL (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 1.92-15.85, P = 0.001); and pH lower than 7.31 (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.18-11.99, P = 0.024). In conclusion, the Hardman index and GAS have a significant correlation with in-hospital mortality rates. Nevertheless, a high score does not necessarily correspond with a definite mortality. This is why scoring systems could not be considered as the sole criterion for choosing patients for this study. Clinical experience was still the leading factor in deciding against or in favor of surgery.

[Value of sepsis single-disease manage system in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis].

PubMed

Chen, J; Wang, L H; Ouyang, B; Chen, M Y; Wu, J F; Liu, Y J; Liu, Z M; Guan, X D

2018-04-03

Objective: To observe the effect of sepsis single-disease manage system on the improvement of sepsis treatment and the value in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with sepsis admitted to the Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit of Sun Yat-Sen University First Affiliated Hospital from September 22, 2013 to May 5, 2015 were enrolled in this study. Sepsis single-disease manage system (Rui Xin clinical data manage system, China data, China) was used to monitor 25 clinical quality parameters, consisting of timeliness, normalization and outcome parameters. Based on whether these quality parameters could be completed or not, the clinical practice was evaluated by the system. The unachieved quality parameter was defined as suspicious parameters, and these suspicious parameters were used to predict mortality of patients with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: A total of 1 220 patients with sepsis were enrolled, included 805 males and 415 females. The mean age was (59±17) years, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE Ⅱ) scores was 19±8. The area under ROC curve of total suspicious numbers for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.70; when the suspicious parameters number was more than 6, the sensitivity was 68.0% and the specificity was 61.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. In addition, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious number for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.89; when the suspicious outcome parameters numbers was more than 1, the sensitivity was 88.0% and the specificity was 78.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. Moreover, the area under ROC curve of total suspicious number for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.73; when the total suspicious parameters number was more than 7, the sensitivity was 60.0% and the specificity was 74.0% for predicting 90-day mortality. Finally, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious numbers for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.92; when suspicious outcome parameters numbers was more than 1, the sensitivity was 88.0% and the specificity was 81.0% for predicting 90-day mortality. Conclusion: The single center study suggests that this sepsis single-disease manage system could be used to monitor the completion of clinical practice for intensivist in managing sepsis, and the number of quality parameters failed to complete could be used to predict the mortality of the patients.

Automated Prediction of Early Blood Transfusion and Mortality in Trauma Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-24

We hypothesized that analysis of pulse oximeter signals could predict blood transfusion and mortality as accurately as conventional vital signs(VSs...to 3-hour transfusion, MT, and mortality no differently from pulse oximeter signals alone. Pulse oximeter features collected in the first 15 minutes...time is an unrealized goal. We hypothesized that analysis of pulse oximeter signals could predict blood transfusion and mortality as accurately as

Alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2012-01-01

It has been repeatedly emphasized that alcohol provides the most plausible explanation for both the high rate of cardiovascular mortality rate and its dramatic fluctuations in Russia over recent decades, while other traditional risk factors identified in epidemiological studies have little predictive value. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in Russia. A ge-standardized sex-specific male and female IHD mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA time series analysis. The results of the analysis showed that alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female IHD mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 3.9% increase in the male IHD mortality rate and a 2.7% increase in the female IHD mortality rate. As a conclusion, the results of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that the drastic fluctuations in IHD mortality in Russia over recent decades are related to alcohol, as indicated by the close temporal association between number of deaths from IHD and overall alcohol consumption per capita.

Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

[Predictive factors of complications during CT-guided transthoracic biopsy].

PubMed

Fontaine-Delaruelle, C; Souquet, P-J; Gamondes, D; Pradat, E; de Leusse, A; Ferretti, G R; Couraud, S

2017-04-01

CT-guided transthoracic core-needle biopsy (TTNB) is frequently used for the diagnosis of lung nodules. The aim of this study is to describe TTNBs' complications and to investigate predictive factors of complications. All consecutive TTNBs performed in three centers between 2006 and 2012 were included. Binary logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis. Overall, 970 TTNBs were performed in 929 patients. The complication rate was 34% (life-threatening complication in 6%). The most frequent complications were pneumothorax (29% included 4% which required chest-tube) and hemoptysis (5%). The mortality rate was 0.1% (n=1). In multivariate analysis, predictive factor for a complication was small target size (AOR=0.984; 95% CI [0.976-0.992]; P<0.001). This predictive factor was also found for occurrence of life-threatening complication (AOR=0.982; [0.965-0.999]; P=0.037), of pneumothorax (AOR=0.987; [0.978-0.995]; P=0.002) and of hemoptysis (AOR=0.973; [0.951-0.997]; P=0.024). One complication occurred in one-third of TTNBs. The proportion of life-threatening complication was 6%. A small lesion size was predictive of complication occurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Stratifying risk factors for multidrug-resistant pathogens in hospitalized patients coming from the community with pneumonia.

PubMed

Aliberti, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Marta; Zanaboni, Anna Maria; Cosentini, Roberto; Brambilla, Anna Maria; Seghezzi, Sonia; Tarsia, Paolo; Mantero, Marco; Blasi, Francesco

2012-02-15

 Not all risk factors for acquiring multidrug-resistant (MDR) organisms are equivalent in predicting pneumonia caused by resistant pathogens in the community. We evaluated risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria in patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Our evaluation was based on actual infection with a resistant pathogen and clinical outcome during hospitalization.  An observational, prospective study was conducted on consecutive patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Data on admission and during hospitalization were collected. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria independently associated with the actual presence of a resistant pathogen and in-hospital mortality.  Among the 935 patients enrolled in the study, 473 (51%) had at least 1 risk factor for acquiring MDR bacteria on admission. Of all risk factors, hospitalization in the preceding 90 days (odds ratio [OR], 4.87 95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.90-12.4]; P = .001) and residency in a nursing home (OR, 3.55 [95% CI, 1.12-11.24]; P = .031) were independent predictors for an actual infection with a resistant pathogen. A score able to predict pneumonia caused by a resistant pathogen was computed, including comorbidities and risk factors for MDR. Hospitalization in the preceding 90 days and residency in a nursing home were also independent predictors for in-hospital mortality.  Risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria should be weighted differently, and a probabilistic approach to identifying resistant pathogens among patients coming from the community with pneumonia should be embraced.

Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

PubMed

Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

2017-12-01

Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission, there is enough signal to effectively predict mortality during the first 6h of admission. The proposed framework, in particular the one that uses the ensemble learning approach - EMPICU Random Forest (EMPICU-RF) offers a base to construct an effective and novel mortality prediction model in the early hours of an ICU patient admission, with an improved performance profile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sarcopenia Is Predictive of 1-Year Mortality After Acetabular Fractures in Elderly Patients.

PubMed

Mitchell, Phillip M; Collinge, Cory A; OʼNeill, David E; Bible, Jesse E; Mir, Hassan R

2018-06-01

To determine whether sarcopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in geriatric acetabular fractures. Retrospective cohort. American College of Surgeons Level I trauma center. One hundred and forty-six patients over the age 60 with acetabular fractures treated at our institution over a 12-year period. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality, collected using the Social Security Death Index. We used the psoas:lumbar vertebral index (PLVI), calculated using the cross-sectional area of the L4 vertebral body and the left and right psoas muscles, to assess for sarcopenia. Using a multivariate logistic regression model, we found that low PLVI was associated with increased 1-year mortality (P = 0.046) when controlling for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Injury Severity Score (ISS), smoking status, and associated pelvic ring injury. Increasing age and ISS also showed a relationship with 1-year mortality in this cohort (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, respectively). We defined sarcopenia as those patients in the lowest quartile of PLVI. The mortality rate of this cohort was 32.4%, compared with 11.0% in patients without sarcopenia (odds ratio 4.04; 95% confidence interval 1.62-10.1). Age >75 years, ISS >14, and sarcopenia had 1-year mortality rates of 37.1%, 30.9%, and 32.4%, respectively. In patients with all 3 factors, the mortality rate was 90%. Sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in elderly patients with acetabular fractures. This study highlights the importance of objective measures to assess frailty in elderly patients who have sustained fractures about the hip and pelvis. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Early and late mortality of spontaneous hemorrhagic transformation of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

D'Amelio, Marco; Terruso, Valeria; Famoso, Giorgia; Di Benedetto, Norma; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Francesca; Ragonese, Paolo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Aridon, Paolo

2014-04-01

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT), a complication of ischemic stroke (IS), might influence patient's prognosis. Our aim is to evaluate, in a hospital-based series of patients not treated with thrombolysis, the relationship between HT and mortality. We compared mortality of individuals with spontaneous HT with that of individuals without. Medical records of patients diagnosed with anterior IS were retrospectively reviewed. Outcome measures were 30- and 90-day survival after IS onset. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to construct survival curves. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for the main outcome measure (death). HT was stratified in hemorrhagic infarction and parenchymal hematoma (PH). We also evaluated the relationship between HT and the main mortality risk factors (gender, age, premorbid status, severity of stroke, and radiological features). Thirty days from stroke onset, 8.1% (19 of 233) of patients died. At multivariate analysis, PH (HR: 7.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1, 27.8) and low level of consciousness at admission (HR: 5.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 18.6) were significantly associated with death. At 3-month follow-up, mortality rate was 12.1% (28 of 232). At multivariate analysis, large infarct size (HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.2, 6.0) and HT (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.0, 5.4) were independent risk factors for mortality. Parenchymal hematoma was, however, the strongest predictor of late mortality (HR: 7.9, 95% CI: 2.9, 21.4). Neurological status and infarct size play a significant role, respectively, in early and late mortality after IS. Parenchymal hematoma independently predicts both early and late mortality. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in the association between depressive mood and mortality: a 12-year follow-up population-based study.

PubMed

Lemogne, C; Niedhammer, I; Khlat, M; Ravaud, J F; Guillemin, F; Consoli, S M; Fossati, P; Chau, N

2012-02-01

Depressive mood has been associated with all-cause mortality in both men and women. This study aimed at exploring gender differences in the association between depressive mood and specific causes of mortality as well as factors that may account for it, including education, marital status, social support, health behaviors, and chronic diseases. A population-based survey including 6043 subjects (2892 men and 3151 women) was conducted in 1996 in the north-east of France with a questionnaire covering education, marital status, social support, health behaviors (smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index), and chronic diseases. Depressive mood was measured using the Duke Health Profile questionnaire. Cox regression models were used to examine its association with subsequent natural all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular and cancer mortality. During a follow-up of 12.5 years, 406 men and 303 women died from a natural cause. Adjusting for all covariates, depressive mood predicted natural mortality in both men [Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.69] and women (HR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.06-1.77). However, this association was significant for cardiovascular mortality in men (HR=1.63; 95% CI: 1.00-2.65) whereas it was significant for cancer mortality in women (HR=1.71; 95% CI: 1.11-2.64). Baseline data were self-reported and the response rate was low. Preventive strategies aiming at reducing the increased mortality associated with depressive mood should take gender into account. Depressed men may warrant a better screening for cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, whereas depressed women may benefit from better cancer prevention measures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Validation of the Pneumonia Severity Index for hospitalizing patients with community-acquired pneumonia].

PubMed

Querol-Ribelles, José M; Tenías, José M; Querol-Borrás, José M; González-Granda, Damiana; Hernández, Manuel; Ferreruela, Rosa; Martínez, Isidoro

2004-04-10

Our main objective was to assess the utility of the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) to decide the site of care home or hospital of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). All CAP patients who came to the emergency department from 1 January to 31 December, 2000, were prospectively assessed with a protocol based on the PSI and additional admission criteria applied to classes I, II and III. Mortality within 30 days and poor outcome were used as endpoints. We tested the diagnostic efficacy of the PSI scale in predicting mortality or unfavourable events by calculating the area below the ROC curve. Of the 243 CAP patients included, 124 (51%) belonged to classes I, II and III, and 119 (49%) belonged to classes IV and V. One hundred and fifty six (64%) patients were admitted. Fifteen (6.2%) patients died, all of them belonging to classes IV and V. Forty four (18%) patients showed a poor outcome. Only one patient who was initially sent home had a poor outcome. The prognostic value of the PSI scale to predict mortality (ROC = 0.92; CI 95%, 0.88-0.95) was high. Our results confirm that the PSI scale is a good prognostic index in clinical practice for predicting mortality due to CAP. In order to use the PSI to decide the site of care of patients with CAP, not only the score obtained but also additional factors should be taken into account.

New equations for predicting postoperative risk in patients with hip fracture.

PubMed

Hirose, Jun; Ide, Junji; Irie, Hiroki; Kikukawa, Kenshi; Mizuta, Hiroshi

2009-12-01

Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes. Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stress, Behavior and Health: Developing a Model for Predicting Post-Deployment Morbidity, Mortality and Other Adverse Outcomes

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-07-01

related health outcomes and risk factors for adverse health events. A secondary effort is to link self-reports of stress and subsequent increases in...Gulf War era veterans, information critical to the interpretation of postwar differences between these two groups . We have identified potential

Personality, Aging Self-Perceptions, and Subjective Health: A Mediation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moor, Caroline; Zimprich, Daniel; Schmitt, Marina; Kliegel, Matthias

2006-01-01

Since the global item of subjective health has emerged as a strong predictor of important health outcomes such as mortality, there have been many attempts to uncover its correlates. In this study, we tested whether personality as assessed via the five-factor model of personality predicted subjective health when physician-rated health and…

The Power of Personality

PubMed Central

Roberts, Brent W.; Kuncel, Nathan R.; Shiner, Rebecca; Caspi, Avshalom; Goldberg, Lewis R.

2015-01-01

The ability of personality traits to predict important life outcomes has traditionally been questioned because of the putative small effects of personality. In this article, we compare the predictive validity of personality traits with that of socioeconomic status (SES) and cognitive ability to test the relative contribution of personality traits to predictions of three critical outcomes: mortality, divorce, and occupational attainment. Only evidence from prospective longitudinal studies was considered. In addition, an attempt was made to limit the review to studies that controlled for important background factors. Results showed that the magnitude of the effects of personality traits on mortality, divorce, and occupational attainment was indistinguishable from the effects of SES and cognitive ability on these outcomes. These results demonstrate the influence of personality traits on important life outcomes, highlight the need to more routinely incorporate measures of personality into quality of life surveys, and encourage further research about the developmental origins of personality traits and the processes by which these traits influence diverse life outcomes. PMID:26151971

Morbidity and mortality after emergency lower extremity embolectomy.

PubMed

Casillas-Berumen, Sergio; Sadri, Lili; Farber, Alik; Eslami, Mohammad H; Kalish, Jeffrey A; Rybin, Denis; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J

2017-03-01

Emergency lower extremity embolectomy is a common vascular surgical procedure that has poorly defined outcomes. Our goal was to define the perioperative morbidity for emergency embolectomy and develop a risk prediction model for perioperative mortality. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement database was queried to identify patients undergoing emergency unilateral and lower extremity embolectomy. Patients with previous critical limb ischemia, bilateral embolectomy, nonemergency indication, and those undergoing concurrent bypass were excluded. Patient characteristics and postoperative morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Multivariate analysis for predictors of mortality was performed, and from this, a risk prediction model was developed to identify preoperative predictors of mortality. There were 1749 patients (47.9% male) who met the inclusion criteria. The average age was 68.2 ± 14.8 years. Iliofemoral-popliteal embolectomy was performed in 1231 patients (70.4%), popliteal-tibioperoneal embolectomy in 303 (17.3%), and at both levels in 215 (12.3%). Fasciotomies were performed concurrently with embolectomy in 308 patients (17.6%). The 30-day postoperative mortality was 13.9%. Postoperative complications included myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest (4.7%), pulmonary complications (16.0%), and wound complications (8.2%). The rate of return to the operating room ≤30 days was 25.7%. Hospital length of stay was 9.8 ± 11.5 days, and the 30-day readmission rate was 16.3%. A perioperative mortality risk prediction model based on factors identified in multivariate analysis included age >70 years, male gender, functional dependence, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, recent myocardial infarction/angina, chronic renal insufficiency, and steroid use. The model showed good discrimination (C = 0.769; 95% confidence interval, 0733-0.806) and calibrated well. Emergency lower extremity embolectomy has high morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization. These data provide a benchmark for this complex patient population and may assist in risk stratifying patients, allowing for improved informed consent and goals of care at the time of presentation. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Kang, Seok Hui; Park, Jong Won; Yoon, Kyung Woo; Do, Jun Young

2013-07-01

This study was performed to determine the clinical relevance of limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM) in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. This retrospective cohort study included 534 CAPD patients. Body compositions were measured using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry apparatus. In males, the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of sarcopenia were 70.3% and 85.9%, respectively. Respective values in females were 62.3% and 83.8%. The initial low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality in male CAPD patients and in female CAPD patients. Among patients who maintained CAPD for a year, the maintenance of low LTLM tertile was associated with mortality. LTLM is associated with other lean mass indices, nutritional status, and mortality in CAPD patients. Therefore, LTLM is a novel marker that is useful for the prediction of the nutritional status and mortality in patients with CAPD. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupation and lung cancer mortality in a nationally representative U.S. Cohort: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

PubMed

Lee, David J; Fleming, Lora E; Leblanc, William G; Arheart, Kristopher L; Chung-Bridges, Katherine; Christ, Sharon L; Caban, Alberto J; Pitman, Terry

2006-08-01

The objective of this study was to assess the risk of lung cancer mortality in a nationally representative sample of U.S. workers by occupation. National Death Index linkage identified 1812 lung cancer deaths among 143,863 workers who participated in the 1987, 1988, and 1990-1994 National Health Interview Surveys. Current and former smoking status was predictive of lung cancer mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 15.1 and 3.8, respectively). Occupations with significantly higher risk for age- and smoking-adjusted lung cancer mortality included heating/air/refrigeration mechanics (HR = 3.0); not specified mechanics and repairers (HR = 2.8); financial records processing occupations (HR = 1.8); freight, stock, and materials handlers (HR = 1.5); and precision production occupations (HR = 1.4). Although tobacco use continues to be the single most important risk factor for lung cancer mortality, occupational exposure to lung carcinogens should be targeted as well to further reduce the burden of lung cancer.

Global validation of the WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections: a prospective multicentre study (WISS Study).

PubMed

Sartelli, Massimo; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M; Catena, Fausto; Griffiths, Ewen A; Di Saverio, Salomone; Coimbra, Raul; Ordoñez, Carlos A; Leppaniemi, Ari; Fraga, Gustavo P; Coccolini, Federico; Agresta, Ferdinando; Abbas, Asrhaf; Abdel Kader, Saleh; Agboola, John; Amhed, Adamu; Ajibade, Adesina; Akkucuk, Seckin; Alharthi, Bandar; Anyfantakis, Dimitrios; Augustin, Goran; Baiocchi, Gianluca; Bala, Miklosh; Baraket, Oussama; Bayrak, Savas; Bellanova, Giovanni; Beltràn, Marcelo A; Bini, Roberto; Boal, Matthew; Borodach, Andrey V; Bouliaris, Konstantinos; Branger, Frederic; Brunelli, Daniele; Catani, Marco; Che Jusoh, Asri; Chichom-Mefire, Alain; Cocorullo, Gianfranco; Colak, Elif; Costa, David; Costa, Silvia; Cui, Yunfeng; Curca, Geanina Loredana; Curry, Terry; Das, Koray; Delibegovic, Samir; Demetrashvili, Zaza; Di Carlo, Isidoro; Drozdova, Nadezda; El Zalabany, Tamer; Enani, Mushira Abdulaziz; Faro, Mario; Gachabayov, Mahir; Giménez Maurel, Teresa; Gkiokas, Georgios; Gomes, Carlos Augusto; Gonsaga, Ricardo Alessandro Teixeira; Guercioni, Gianluca; Guner, Ali; Gupta, Sanjay; Gutierrez, Sandra; Hutan, Martin; Ioannidis, Orestis; Isik, Arda; Izawa, Yoshimitsu; Jain, Sumita A; Jokubauskas, Mantas; Karamarkovic, Aleksandar; Kauhanen, Saila; Kaushik, Robin; Kenig, Jakub; Khokha, Vladimir; Kim, Jae Il; Kong, Victor; Koshy, Renol; Krasniqi, Avidyl; Kshirsagar, Ashok; Kuliesius, Zygimantas; Lasithiotakis, Konstantinos; Leão, Pedro; Lee, Jae Gil; Leon, Miguel; Lizarazu Pérez, Aintzane; Lohsiriwat, Varut; López-Tomassetti Fernandez, Eudaldo; Lostoridis, Eftychios; Mn, Raghuveer; Major, Piotr; Marinis, Athanasios; Marrelli, Daniele; Martinez-Perez, Aleix; Marwah, Sanjay; McFarlane, Michael; Melo, Renato Bessa; Mesina, Cristian; Michalopoulos, Nick; Moldovanu, Radu; Mouaqit, Ouadii; Munyika, Akutu; Negoi, Ionut; Nikolopoulos, Ioannis; Nita, Gabriela Elisa; Olaoye, Iyiade; Omari, Abdelkarim; Ossa, Paola Rodríguez; Ozkan, Zeynep; Padmakumar, Ramakrishnapillai; Pata, Francesco; Pereira Junior, Gerson Alves; Pereira, Jorge; Pintar, Tadeja; Pouggouras, Konstantinos; Prabhu, Vinod; Rausei, Stefano; Rems, Miran; Rios-Cruz, Daniel; Sakakushev, Boris; Sánchez de Molina, Maria Luisa; Seretis, Charampolos; Shelat, Vishal; Simões, Romeo Lages; Sinibaldi, Giovanni; Skrovina, Matej; Smirnov, Dmitry; Spyropoulos, Charalampos; Tepp, Jaan; Tezcaner, Tugan; Tolonen, Matti; Torba, Myftar; Ulrych, Jan; Uzunoglu, Mustafa Yener; van Dellen, David; van Ramshorst, Gabrielle H; Vasquez, Giorgio; Venara, Aurélien; Vereczkei, Andras; Vettoretto, Nereo; Vlad, Nutu; Yadav, Sanjay Kumar; Yilmaz, Tonguç Utku; Yuan, Kuo-Ching; Zachariah, Sanoop Koshy; Zida, Maurice; Zilinskas, Justas; Ansaloni, Luca

2015-01-01

To validate a new practical Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) including the clinical conditions at the admission (severe sepsis/septic shock), the origin of the cIAIs, the delay in source control, the setting of acquisition and any risk factors such as age and immunosuppression. The WISS study (WSES cIAIs Score Study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 132 medical institutions worldwide during a four-month study period (October 2014-February 2015). Four thousand five hundred thirty-three patients with a mean age of 51.2 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the WISS study. Univariate analysis has shown that all factors that were previously included in the WSES Sepsis Severity Score were highly statistically significant between those who died and those who survived (p < 0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression model was highly significant (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.54) and showed that all these factors were independent in predicting mortality of sepsis. Receiver Operator Curve has shown that the WSES Severity Sepsis Score had an excellent prediction for mortality. A score above 5.5 was the best predictor of mortality having a sensitivity of 89.2 %, a specificity of 83.5 % and a positive likelihood ratio of 5.4. WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated Intra-abdominal infections can be used on global level. It has shown high sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio that may help us in making clinical decisions.

Comparison of National Operative Mortality in Gastroenterological Surgery Using Web-based Prospective Data Entry Systems.

PubMed

Anazawa, Takayuki; Paruch, Jennifer L; Miyata, Hiroaki; Gotoh, Mitsukazu; Ko, Clifford Y; Cohen, Mark E; Hirahara, Norimichi; Zhou, Lynn; Konno, Hiroyuki; Wakabayashi, Go; Sugihara, Kenichi; Mori, Masaki

2015-12-01

International collaboration is important in healthcare quality evaluation; however, few international comparisons of general surgery outcomes have been accomplished. Furthermore, predictive model application for risk stratification has not been internationally evaluated. The National Clinical Database (NCD) in Japan was developed in collaboration with the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP), with a goal of creating a standardized surgery database for quality improvement. The study aimed to compare the consistency and impact of risk factors of 3 major gastroenterological surgical procedures in Japan and the United States (US) using web-based prospective data entry systems: right hemicolectomy (RH), low anterior resection (LAR), and pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).Data from NCD and ACS-NSQIP, collected over 2 years, were examined. Logistic regression models were used for predicting 30-day mortality for both countries. Models were exchanged and evaluated to determine whether the models built for one population were accurate for the other population.We obtained data for 113,980 patients; 50,501 (Japan: 34,638; US: 15,863), 42,770 (Japan: 35,445; US: 7325), and 20,709 (Japan: 15,527; US: 5182) underwent RH, LAR, and, PD, respectively. Thirty-day mortality rates for RH were 0.76% (Japan) and 1.88% (US); rates for LAR were 0.43% versus 1.08%; and rates for PD were 1.35% versus 2.57%. Patient background, comorbidities, and practice style were different between Japan and the US. In the models, the odds ratio for each variable was similar between NCD and ACS-NSQIP. Local risk models could predict mortality using local data, but could not accurately predict mortality using data from other countries.We demonstrated the feasibility and efficacy of the international collaborative research between Japan and the US, but found that local risk models remain essential for quality improvement.

Perinatal Decision Making for Preterm Infants with Congenital Heart Disease: Determinable Risk Factors for Mortality.

PubMed

Lynema, Stephanie; Fifer, Carlen G; Laventhal, Naomi T

2016-06-01

For premature infants with congenital heart disease (CHD), it may be unclear when the burdens of treatment outweigh potential benefits. Parents may thus have to choose between comfort care at birth and medical stabilization until surgical repair is feasible. Better defined outcome data, including risk factors for mortality, are needed to counsel expectant parents who are considering intensive care for premature infants with CHD. We sought to evaluate outcomes in this population to inform expectant parents considering intensive versus palliative care at birth. We performed a retrospective cohort study of infants born <34 weeks who received intensive care with critical or moderately severe CHD predicted to require surgery in the neonatal period or the first 6 months of life. 46 % of 54 infants survived. Among non-survivors, 74 % died prior to surgery (median age 24 days). Of the infants that underwent surgery, 75 % survived. Survival was lower among infants <32 weeks gestational age (GA) (p = 0.013), with birth weight (BW) <1500 g (p = 0.011), or with extra-cardiac anomalies (ECA) (p = 0.015). GA and ECA remained significant risk factors for mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. In summary, GA < 32 weeks, BW < 1500 g, and ECA are determinable prenatally and were significant risk factors for mortality. The majority of infants who survived to cardiac intervention survived neonatal hospitalization, whereas most of the infants who died did so prior to surgery. For some expectant parents, this early declaration of mortality may support a trial of intensive care while avoiding burdensome interventions.

Morbidity and mortality risk among patients with screening-detected severe hypertension in the Malmö Preventive Project.

PubMed

Westerdahl, Christina; Zöller, Bengt; Arslan, Eren; Erdine, Serap; Nilsson, Peter M

2014-12-01

Screening of hypertension has been advocated for early detection and treatment. Severe hypertension (grade 3 hypertension) is a strong predictor for cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to evaluate not only the risk factors for developing severe hypertension, but also the prospective morbidity and mortality risk associated with severe hypertension in a population-based screening and intervention programme. In all, 18,200 individuals from a population-based cohort underwent a baseline examination in 1972-1992 and were re-examined in 2002-2006 in Malmö, Sweden. In total, 300 (1.6%) patients with severe hypertension were identified at re-examination, and predictive risk factors from baseline were calculated. Total and cause-specific morbidity and mortality were followed in national registers in all severe hypertension patients, as well as in age and sex-matched normotensive controls. Cox analyses for hazard ratios were used. Men developing severe hypertension differed from matched controls in baseline variables associated with the metabolic syndrome, as well as paternal history of hypertension (P < 0.001). Women with later severe hypertension were characterized by elevated BMI and a positive maternal history for hypertension at baseline. The risk of mortality, coronary events, stroke and diabetes during follow-up was higher among severe hypertension patients compared to controls. For coronary events, the risk remained elevated adjusted for other risk factors [hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-4.40, P = 0.011]. Family history and variables associated with metabolic syndrome are predictors for severe hypertension after a long-term follow-up. Severe hypertension is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular morbidity and incident diabetes in spite of treatment. This calls for improved risk factor control in patients with severe hypertension.

Mortality from bacterial meningitis in children in Kosovo.

PubMed

Namani, Sadie; Milenkovic, Zvonko; Kuchar, Ernest; Koci, Remzie; Mehmeti, Murat

2012-01-01

Bacterial meningitis is a severe infection responsible for high mortality. This prospective study of 277 pediatric bacterial meningitis cases was done to identify factors predicting death in children <16 years of age living and treated in a limited-resources country (Kosovo). Of the 277 children enrolled, 60 patients (22%) developed neurologic complications, and 15 children died (5%). The following variables were strongly correlated with mortality: altered mental status on admission (relative risk [RR] = 29.9), presentation of the initial cerebrospinal fluid as thick pus (RR = 29.9), prehospital seizures (RR = 23.5) and their recurrence >24 hours after admission (RR = 11.5), age <1 month (RR = 19.3), the use of inotropic agents (RR = 11.5), and admission after 5 days' duration of illness (P < .001). The mortality rate in children in Kosovo is similar to those reported from developing countries, and this is most likely due to the unfavorable living conditions.

Quadriceps strength predicts mortality in patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PubMed Central

Swallow, Elisabeth B; Reyes, Diana; Hopkinson, Nicholas S; Man, William D‐C; Porcher, Raphaël; Cetti, Edward J; Moore, Alastair J; Moxham, John; Polkey, Michael I

2007-01-01

Background Prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is poorly predicted by indices of air flow obstruction, because other factors that reflect the systemic nature of the disease also influence prognosis. Objective To test the hypothesis that a reduction in quadriceps maximal voluntary contraction force (QMVC) is a useful predictor of mortality in patients with COPD. Methods A mortality questionnaire was sent to the primary care physician of 184 patients with COPD who had undergone quadriceps strength measurement over the past 5 years. QMVC was expressed as a percentage of the patient's body mass index. The end point measured was death or lung transplantation, and median (range) follow‐up was 38 (1–54) months. Results Data were obtained for 162 patients (108 men and 54 women) with a mean (SD) percentage of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) predicted of 35.6 (16.2), giving a response rate of 88%. Transplant‐free survival of the cohort was 93.5% at 1 year and 87.1% at 2 years. Cox regression models showed that the mortality risk increased with increasing age and with reducing QMVC. Only age (HR 1.72 (95% CI 1.14 to 2.6); p = 0.01) and QMVC (HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.99); p = 0.036) continued to be significant predictors of mortality when controlled for other variables in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion QMVC is simple and provides more powerful prognostic information on COPD than that provided by age, body mass index and forced expiratory volume in 1 s. PMID:17090575

Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

PubMed Central

McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

2012-01-01

In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

Predictive value of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Kaplan, Mustafa; Ates, Ihsan; Akpinar, Muhammed Yener; Yuksel, Mahmut; Kuzu, Ufuk Baris; Kacar, Sabite; Coskun, Orhan; Kayacetin, Ertugrul

2017-08-15

Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) increases and albumin decreases in patients with inflammation and infection. However, their role in patients with acute pancreatitis is not clear. The present study was to investigate the predictive significance of the CRP/albumin ratio for the prognosis and mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. This study was performed retrospectively with 192 acute pancreatitis patients between January 2002 and June 2015. Ranson scores, Atlanta classification and CRP/albumin ratios of the patients were calculated. The CRP/albumin ratio was higher in deceased patients compared to survivors. The CRP/albumin ratio was positively correlated with Ranson score and Atlanta classification in particular and with important prognostic markers such as hospitalization time, CRP and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In addition to the CRP/albumin ratio, necrotizing pancreatitis type, moderately severe and severe Atlanta classification, and total Ranson score were independent risk factors of mortality. It was found that an increase of 1 unit in the CRP/albumin ratio resulted in an increase of 1.52 times in mortality risk. A prediction value about CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 was found to be a significant marker in predicting mortality with 92.1% sensitivity and 58.0% specificity. It was seen that Ranson and Atlanta classification were higher in patients with CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 compared with those with CRP/albumin ratio ≤16.28. Patients with CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 had a 19.3 times higher chance of death. The CRP/albumin ratio is a novel but promising, easy-to-measure, repeatable, non-invasive inflammation-based prognostic score in acute pancreatitis. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heart rate turbulence predicts ICD-resistant mortality in ischaemic heart disease.

PubMed

Marynissen, Thomas; Floré, Vincent; Heidbuchel, Hein; Nuyens, Dieter; Ector, Joris; Willems, Rik

2014-07-01

In high-risk patients, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) can convert the mode of death from arrhythmic to pump failure death. Therefore, we introduced the concept of 'ICD-resistant mortality' (IRM), defined as death (a) without previous appropriate ICD intervention (AI), (b) within 1 month after the first AI, or (c) within 1 year after the initial ICD implantation. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in patients with a high risk of IRM should be avoided. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients with ischaemic heart disease were included if a digitized 24 h Holter was available pre-implantation. Demographic, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and 24 h Holter risk factors were collected at device implantation. The primary endpoint was IRM. Cox regression analyses were used to test the association between predictors and outcome. We included 130 patients, with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 33.6 ± 10.3%. During a follow-up of 52 ± 31 months, 33 patients died. There were 21 cases of IRM. Heart rate turbulence (HRT) was the only Holter parameter associated with IRM and total mortality. A higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and a lower body mass index were the strongest predictors of IRM. Left ventricular ejection fraction predicted IRM on univariate analysis, and was the strongest predictor of total mortality. The only parameter that predicted AI was non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation based on NYHA class and LVEF leads to selection of patients with a higher risk of IRM and death. Heart rate turbulence may have added value for the identification of poor candidates for ICD therapy. Available Holter parameters seem limited in their ability to predict AI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting poor outcome following hepatectomy: analysis of 2313 hepatectomies in the NSQIP database

PubMed Central

Aloia, Thomas A; Fahy, Bridget N; Fischer, Craig P; Jones, Stephen L; Duchini, Andrea; Galati, Joseph; Gaber, A Osama; Ghobrial, R Mark; Bass, Barbara L

2009-01-01

Background: For the past two decades multiple series have documented that liver resection has become safer. The purpose of this study was to determine the current status of hepatic resection in the USA by analysing the multi-institutional experience within the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) dataset. Methods: Of the 363 897 cases in the 2005–2007 NSQIP Participant Use File, 2313 elective open hepatectomy cases were identified (1344 partial, 230 left, 510 right and 229 extended hepatectomies). A total of 57 perioperative risk factors and 28 postoperative complications were compared. To determine the applicability of NSQIP general risk models to hepatic surgery, the prognostic value of standard multivariate analysis was compared with the NSQIP general surgery aggregate risk indices (expected probability of morbidity [morbprob], expected probability of mortality [mortprob]). Results: The median age of patients listed in the database was 60 years; sex distributions were equivalent; 78% were White; 65% of patients had an ASA score of 3 or 4, and the most prevalent co-morbidity was hypertension (46%). A total of 41% of patients had disseminated cancer, 19% of whom had received chemotherapy within 30 days of surgery. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.5% (57/2313) and the 30-day major morbidity rate was 19.6% (453/2313). Multivariate analysis identified nine risk factors associated with major morbidity and two risk factors associated with mortality. In contrast, the morbprob and mortprob statistics did not predict outcomes accurately. For those patients who developed major morbidity, the median length of stay was longer (10 vs. 6 days; P= 0.001) and the mortality rate was higher (11.3% vs. 0.3%; P= 0.001). Conclusions: Analysis of the NSQIP experience with hepatectomy indicates that the current mortality and major morbidity rate benchmarks are 2.5% and 19.6%, respectively. Poor outcomes were associated with nutritional status, liver function and the extent of hepatectomy. The NSQIP general surgery morbprob and mortprob values were relatively poor predictors of post-hepatectomy observed morbidity, indicating the need for specialty-specific NSQIP modelling. PMID:19816616

Epidemiology and risk factors of multiple-organ failure after multiple trauma: an analysis of 31,154 patients from the TraumaRegister DGU.

PubMed

Fröhlich, Matthias; Lefering, Rolf; Probst, Christian; Paffrath, Thomas; Schneider, Marco M; Maegele, Marc; Sakka, Samir G; Bouillon, Bertil; Wafaisade, Arasch

2014-04-01

In the severely injured who survive the early posttraumatic phase, multiple-organ failure (MOF) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality. An enhanced prediction of MOF might influence individual monitoring and therapy of severely injured patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of a nationwide prospective database, the TraumaRegister DGU of the German Trauma Society. Patients with complete data sets (2002-2011) and a relevant trauma load (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥ 16), who were admitted to an intensive care unit, were included. Of a total of 31,154 patients enclosed in this study, 10,201 (32.7%) developed an MOF according to the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. During the study period, mortality of all patients decreased from 18.1% in 2002 to 15.3% in 2011 (p < 0.001). Meanwhile, MOF occurred significantly more often (24.6% in 2002 vs. 31.5% in 2011, p < 0.001), but mortality of MOF patients decreased (42.6% vs. 33.3%, p < 0.001). MOF patients who died survived 2 days less (11 days in 2002 vs. 8.9 days in 2011, p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for the development of MOF following severe trauma were age, ISS, head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 3 or higher, thoracic AIS score of 3 or higher, male sex, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 8 or less, mass transfusion, base excess of less than -3, systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg at admission, and coagulopathy. Over one decade, we observed an ongoing decrease of mortality after multiple trauma, accompanied by decreasing mortality in the subgroup with MOF. However, incidence of MOF in the severely injured increased significantly. Thus, MOF after multiple trauma remains a challenge in intensive care. The risk factors from multivariate analysis could be instrumental in anticipating the early development of MOF. Furthermore, a reliable prediction model might be supportive for patient enrolment in trauma studies, in which MOF marks the primary end point. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Study of conicity index, body mass index and waist circumference as predictors of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Caitano Fontela, Paula; Winkelmann, Eliane Roseli; Nazario Viecili, Paulo Ricardo

2017-05-01

Obesity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. This study was designed to assess whether the conicity index (CI), body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) can be used as predictors of coronary artery disease (CAD) and mortality in a middle-aged population of the north-western region of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. This was a retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, based on the medical records of patients seen in a cardiology institution in a rural area of Rio Grande do Sul. The sample consisted of 2396 individuals. The primary endpoint was diagnosis of CAD, with mortality as the secondary endpoint. CI, BMI and WC were assessed using logistic regression, Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The study showed that none of the anthropometric measures could be considered independent factors for either a diagnosis of CAD or mortality. Female gender was associated with a significantly lower risk of CAD (odds ratio [OR]: 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.22-0.44), as was absence of diabetes (OR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.33-0.82), while there was a significantly higher risk of mortality associated with the presence of CAD (OR: 3.56; 95% CI: 2.00-6.32) and alcohol consumption (OR: 3.55; 95% CI: 1.60-7.90). These anthropometric measures were not independent predictive factors for CAD diagnosis or mortality in a population in southern Brazil. Our results support the conclusion that determination of CI, BMI and WC alone is insufficient to assess the risk of CAD and mortality in the general population. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Basic arterial blood gas biomarkers as a predictor of mortality in tetralogy of Fallot patients.

PubMed

Bhardwaj, Vandana; Kapoor, Poonam Malhotra; Irpachi, Kalpana; Ladha, Suruchi; Chowdhury, Ujjwal Kumar

2017-01-01

Serum lactate and base deficit have been shown to be a predictor of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. Poor preoperative oxygenation appears to be one of the significant factors that affects early mortality in tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). There is little published literature evaluating the utility of serum lactate, base excess (BE), and oxygen partial pressure (PO 2 ) as simple, widely available, prognostic markers in patients undergoing surgical repair of TOF. This prospective, observational study was conducted in 150 TOF patients, undergoing elective intracardiac repair. PO 2 , BE, and lactate levels at three different time intervals were recorded. Arterial blood samples were collected after induction (T1), after cardiopulmonary bypass (T2), and 48 h (T3) after surgery in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). To observe the changes in PO 2 , BE, and lactate levels over a period of time, repeated measures analysis was performed with Bonferroni method. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find area under curve (AUC) and cutoff values of various biomarkers for predicting mortality in ICU. The patients who could not survive showed significant elevated lactate levels at baseline (T1) and postoperatively (T2) as compared to patients who survived after surgery (P < 0.001). However, in nonsurvivors, the BE value decreased significantly in the postoperative period in comparison to survivors (-2.8 ± 4.27 vs. 5.04 ± 2.06) (P < 0.001). In nonsurvivors, there was a significant fall of PO 2 to a mean value of 59.86 ± 15.09 in ICU (T3), whereas those who survived had a PO 2 of 125.86 ± 95.09 (P < 0.001). The ROC curve analysis showed that lactate levels (T3) have highest mortality predictive value (AUC: 96.9%) as compared to BE (AUC: 94.5%) and PO 2 (AUC: 81.1%). Serum lactate and BE may be used as prognostic markers to predict mortality in patients undergoing TOF repair. The routine analysis of these simple, fast, widely available, and cost-effective biomarkers should be encouraged to predict prognosis of TOF patients.

Low skeletal muscle mass outperforms the Charlson Comorbidity Index in risk prediction in patients undergoing pancreatic resections.

PubMed

Wagner, D; Marsoner, K; Tomberger, A; Haybaeck, J; Haas, J; Werkgartner, G; Cerwenka, H; Bacher, H; Mischinger, H J; Kornprat, P

2018-05-01

Low skeletal muscle mass is a known predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major pancreatic surgeries. We sought to combine low skeletal muscle mass with established risk predictors to improve their prognostic capacity for postoperative outcome and morbidity. As established parameters to predict preoperative mortality risk for patients, the ASA classification and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used. The Hounsfield Units Average Calculation (HUAC) was measured to define low skeletal muscle mass in 424 patients undergoing pancreatic resections for malignancies. Patients in the lowest sex-adjusted quartile for HUAC were defined as having low skeletal muscle mass (muscle wasting). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative morbidity. Median patient age was 63 years (19-87), 47.9% patients were male, and half the cohort had multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI]>6, 63.2%), 30-day mortality was 5.8% (n = 25). Median HUAC was 19.78 HU (IQR: 15.94-23.54) with 145 patients (34.2%) having low skeletal muscle mass. Preoperative frailty defined by low skeletal muscle mass was associated with an increased risk for postoperative complications (OR 1.55, CI 95% 0.98-2.45, p = 0.014), and a higher 30-day mortality (HR 5.17, CI 95% 1.57-16.69, p = 0.004). With an AUC of 0.85 HUAC showed the highest predictability for 30-day mortality (CI 95% 0.78-0.91, p = 0.0001). Patients with CCI ≥6 and low skeletal muscle mass defined by the HUAC had a 9.78 higher risk of dying in the immediate postoperative phase (HR 9.78, CI 95% 2.98-12.2, p = 0.0001). Low skeletal muscle mass predicts postoperative mortality and complications best and it should be incorporated to conventional risk scores to identify high risk patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Personality predictors of mortality in cardiac transplant candidates and recipients.

PubMed

Brandwin, M; Trask, P C; Schwartz, S M; Clifford, M

2000-08-01

Emotional factors are generally recognized as impacting the care of end-stage heart disease and mortality following cardiac transplants. Equally important, however, are predictors of pretransplant mortality. The current study examined the utility of the Millon Behavioral Health Inventory (MBHI) as a predictor of pre- and posttransplant mortality. A total of 103 cardiac transplant candidates were assessed with the MBHI as part of a pretransplant evaluation that included baseline demographic variables and cardiac status. Time to transplant and mortality status at 1 and 5 years was also obtained. Cluster analysis of MBHI response scores elicited two clusters characterized by high and low distress. Cluster membership predicted survival status at 1-year and 5-year follow-up, with high distress cluster patients having significantly higher mortality in both the total sample and a subgroup of patients who did receive a heart transplant. These results support the value of the MBHI for assessing personality attributes that may dispose toward unfavorable outcome in heart transplant candidates. Further understanding of psychosocial contributions to illness course and outcome may enable more effective selection of treatment interventions with cardiac patients.

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

Low Magnesium Levels and FGF-23 Dysregulation Predict Mitral Valve Calcification as well as Intima Media Thickness in Predialysis Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Jerónimo, Teresa; Fragoso, André; Silva, Claudia; Guilherme, Patrícia; Santos, Nélio; Faísca, Marília; Neves, Pedro

2015-01-01

Background. Mitral valve calcification and intima media thickness (IMT) are common complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD) implicated with high cardiovascular mortality. Objective. To investigate the implication of magnesium and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) levels with mitral valve calcification and IMT in CKD diabetic patients. Methods. Observational, prospective study involving 150 diabetic patients with mild to moderate CKD, divided according to Wilkins Score. Carotid-echodoppler and transthoracic echocardiography were used to assess calcification. Statistical tests used to establish comparisons between groups, to identify risk factors, and to establish cut-off points for prediction of mitral valve calcification. Results. FGF-23 values continually increased with higher values for both IMT and calcification whereas the opposite trend was observed for magnesium. FGF-23 and magnesium were found to independently predict mitral valve calcification and IMT (P < 0.05). Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, the number of deaths was higher in patients with lower magnesium levels and poorer Wilkins score. The mean cut-off value for FGF-23 was 117 RU/mL and for magnesium 1.7 mg/dL. Conclusions. Hypomagnesemia and high FGF-23 levels are independent predictors of mitral valve calcification and IMT and are risk factors for cardiovascular mortality in this population. They might be used as diagnostic/therapeutic targets in order to better manage the high cardiovascular risk in CKD patients. PMID:26089881

Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model.

PubMed

van Kempen, Bob J H; Ferket, Bart S; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Colkesen, Ersen B; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Hunink, M G Myriam

2012-12-06

We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

Physical function and self-rated health status as predictors of mortality: results from longitudinal analysis in the ilSIRENTE study.

PubMed

Cesari, Matteo; Onder, Graziano; Zamboni, Valentina; Manini, Todd; Shorr, Ronald I; Russo, Andrea; Bernabei, Roberto; Pahor, Marco; Landi, Francesco

2008-12-22

Physical function measures have been shown to predict negative health-related events in older persons, including mortality. These markers of functioning may interact with the self-rated health (SRH) in the prediction of events. Aim of the present study is to compare the predictive value for mortality of measures of physical function and SRH status, and test their possible interactions. Data are from 335 older persons aged >or= 80 years (mean age 85.6 years) enrolled in the "Invecchiamento e Longevità nel Sirente" (ilSIRENTE) study. The predictive values for mortality of 4-meter walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), hand grip strength, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, Instrumental ADL (IADL) scale, and a SRH scale were compared using proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for mortality and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were also computed to estimate the predictive value of the independent variables of interest for mortality (alone and in combination). During the 24-month follow-up (mean 1.8 years), 71 (21.2%) events occurred in the study sample. All the tested variables were able to significantly predict mortality. No significant interaction was reported between physical function measures and SRH. The SPPB score was the strongest predictor of overall mortality after adjustment for potential confounders (per SD increase; HR 0.64; 95%CI 0.48-0.86). A similar predictive value was showed by the SRH (per SD increase; HR 0.76; 95%CI 0.59-0.97). The chair stand test was the SPPB subtask showing the highest prognostic value. All the tested measures are able to predict mortality with different extents, but strongest results were obtained from the SPPB and the SRH. The chair stand test may be as useful as the complete SPPB in estimating the mortality risk.

How can mortality increase population size? A test of two mechanistic hypotheses.

PubMed

McIntire, Kristina M; Juliano, Steven A

2018-05-03

Overcompensation occurs when added mortality increases survival to the next life-cycle stage. Overcompensation can contribute to the Hydra Effect, wherein added mortality increases equilibrium population size. One hypothesis for overcompensation is that added mortality eases density-dependence, increasing survival to adulthood ("temporal separation of mortality and density dependence"). Mortality early in the life cycle is therefore predicted to cause overcompensation, whereas mortality later in the life cycle is not. Another hypothesis for overcompensation is that threat of mortality (e.g., from predation) causes behavioral changes that reduce overexploitation of resources, allowing resource recovery, and increasing production of adults ("prudent resource exploitation"). Behaviorally active predation cues alone are therefore predicted to cause overcompensation. We tested these predictions in two experiments with larvae of two species of Aedes. As predicted, early mortality yielded greater production of adults, and of adult females, and greater estimated rate of population increase than did later mortality. Addition of water-borne predation cues usually reduced browsing on surfaces in late-stage larvae, but contrary to prediction, resulted in neither significantly greater production of adult mosquitoes nor significantly greater estimated rate of increase. Thus we have strong evidence that timing of mortality contributes to overcompensation and the Hydra effect in mosquitoes. Evidence that predation cues alone can result in overcompensation via prudent resource exploitation is lacking. We expect the overcompensation in response to early mortality will be common in organisms with complex life cycles, density dependence among juveniles, and developmental control of populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predictive Value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Mortality in a Contemporary Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Population.

PubMed

Jentzer, Jacob C; Bennett, Courtney; Wiley, Brandon M; Murphree, Dennis H; Keegan, Mark T; Gajic, Ognjen; Wright, R Scott; Barsness, Gregory W

2018-03-10

Optimal methods of mortality risk stratification in patients in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) remain uncertain. We evaluated the ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to predict mortality in a large cohort of unselected patients in the CICU. Adult patients admitted to the CICU from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2015, at a single tertiary care hospital were retrospectively reviewed. SOFA scores were calculated daily, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-III and APACHE-IV scores were calculated on CICU day 1. Discrimination of hospital mortality was assessed using area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values. We included 9961 patients, with a mean age of 67.5±15.2 years; all-cause hospital mortality was 9.0%. Day 1 SOFA score predicted hospital mortality, with an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve value of 0.83; area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values were similar for the APACHE-III score, and APACHE-IV predicted mortality ( P >0.05). Mean and maximum SOFA scores over multiple CICU days had greater discrimination for hospital mortality ( P <0.01). Patients with an increasing SOFA score from day 1 and day 2 had higher mortality. Patients with day 1 SOFA score <2 were at low risk of mortality. Increasing tertiles of day 1 SOFA score predicted higher long-term mortality ( P <0.001 by log-rank test). The day 1 SOFA score has good discrimination for short-term mortality in unselected patients in the CICU, which is comparable to APACHE-III and APACHE-IV. Advantages of the SOFA score over APACHE include simplicity, improved discrimination using serial scores, and prediction of long-term mortality. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Predictors of mortality in hospital survivors with type 2 diabetes mellitus and acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Savonitto, Stefano; Morici, Nuccia; Nozza, Anna; Cosentino, Francesco; Perrone Filardi, Pasquale; Murena, Ernesto; Morocutti, Giorgio; Ferri, Marco; Cavallini, Claudio; Eijkemans, Marinus Jc; Stähli, Barbara E; Schrieks, Ilse C; Toyama, Tadashi; Lambers Heerspink, H J; Malmberg, Klas; Schwartz, Gregory G; Lincoff, A Michael; Ryden, Lars; Tardif, Jean Claude; Grobbee, Diederick E

2018-01-01

To define the predictors of long-term mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome. A total of 7226 patients from a randomized trial, testing the effect on cardiovascular outcomes of the dual peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonist aleglitazar in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome (AleCardio trial), were analysed. Median follow-up was 2 years. The independent mortality predictors were defined using Cox regression analysis. The predictive information provided by each variable was calculated as percent of total chi-square of the model. All-cause mortality was 4.0%, with cardiovascular death contributing for 73% of mortality. The mortality prediction model included N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.68; 95% confidence interval = 1.51-1.88; 27% of prediction), lack of coronary revascularization (hazard ratio = 2.28; 95% confidence interval = 1.77-2.93; 18% of prediction), age (hazard ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05; 15% of prediction), heart rate (hazard ratio = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.03; 10% of prediction), glycated haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.11; 95% confidence interval = 1.03-1.19; 8% of prediction), haemoglobin (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.02; 8% of prediction), prior coronary artery bypass (hazard ratio = 1.61; 95% confidence interval = 1.11-2.32; 7% of prediction) and prior myocardial infarction (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87; 6% of prediction). In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndrome, mortality prediction is largely dominated by markers of cardiac, rather than metabolic, dysfunction.

Prognostic factors in patients with malignant pleural effusion: Is it possible to predict mortality in patients with good performance status?

PubMed

Abrao, Fernando Conrado; Peixoto, Renata D'Alpino; de Abreu, Igor Renato Louro Bruno; Janini, Maria Cláudia; Viana, Geisa Garcia; de Oliveira, Mariana Campello; Younes, Riad Naim

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality only in patients with malignant pleural effusion (MPE) showing good performance status which required pleural palliative procedures. All patients with MPE submitted to pleural palliative procedure were enrolled in a prospective study between 2013 and 2014. Patients with Eastern cooperative oncology group (ECOG) score zero, one, and two were considered with good performance status. The possible prognostic factors were tested for significance using the log-rank test (Kaplan-Meier method) and those with significance on univariate analysis were entered into a multivariable Cox model. A total of 64 patients were included in the analysis. Median follow-up time for surviving patients was 263 days. Median survival for the entire cohort was not reached yet. In the multivariate analysis, gastrointestinal primary site (P = 0.006), low albumin concentration in the pleural fluid (P = 0.017), and high serum NLR (P = 0.007) were associated with mortality. In our cohort of ECOG 0-2 patients with MPE submitted to pleural palliative procedures, gastrointestinal malignancy compared to other sites, low pleural fluid albumin and high NLR were significantly associated with mortality. The identification of these prognostic factors may assist the choice of the optimal palliative technique. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;113:570-574. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Septic acute kidney injury patients in emergency department: The risk factors and its correlation to serum lactate.

PubMed

Hsu, Yin-Chou; Hsu, Chih-Wei

2018-05-15

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in septic patients, imposing a heavy burden of illness in terms of morbidity and mortality. Serum lactate is a widely used marker predicting the severity of sepsis. A paucity of research has investigated septic AKI in emergency departments (EDs) and its correlation with initial serum lactate level. This study aimed at identifying risk factors for septic AKI and clarifying the link between initial serum lactate level and septic AKI in ED patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single tertiary referral medical center. The medical records of all adult ED patients with measurement of serum lactate and creatinine between January 2012 and December 2016 were reviewed. A total of 696 septic patients were stratified into AKI and non-AKI groups according to Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria for further statistical analysis. Ninety-nine septic patients (14.2%) had AKI, with AKIN-I, AKIN-II, and AKIN-III in 71.7%, 11.1%, and 17.2% of patients, respectively. Compared with the non-AKI group, the AKI group had a significantly higher mortality rate (71.7% vs. 21.3%, p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for septic AKI included liver disease (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.16-3.52), diabetes mellitus (AOR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.11-2.69), chronic kidney disease (AOR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.06-2.66), and initial serum lactate (AOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02-1.14). Patients with septic AKI had an overwhelmingly higher mortality rate. The comorbidities of liver disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease were correlated with septic AKI and in combination with an elevated initial serum lactate level had predictive regarding AKI and further mortality in ED septic patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early identification of patients at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome among severe pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Luo, Jian; Yu, He; Hu, Yue-Hong; Liu, Dan; Wang, Yi-Wei; Wang, Mao-Yun

2017-01-01

Background Severe pneumonia is the predominant cause for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Identification of ARDS from patients with severe pneumonia remains a significant clinical problem due to the overlap of clinical presentations and symptoms. Early recognition of risks for ARDS from severe pneumonia is of great clinical value. Methods From April 2014 to December 2015, patients with severe pneumonia at admission were retrieved from the hospital database, of which ARDS developed within 7 days were further identified. We compared the demographic and clinical characteristics at admission between severe pneumonia patients with and without ARDS development, followed by analysis of potential predictors for ARDS development and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to screen independent risk factors and identify their sensitivity in predicting ARDS development and prognosis. Results Compared with severe pneumonia without ARDS development, patients with ARDS development had shorter disease duration before admission, higher lung injury score (LIS), serum fibrinogen (FiB), and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), lower Marshall score, sequential organ failure assessment score and proportion of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal diseases, but similar mortality. Serum FiB >5.15 g/L [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.893, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.141–3.142, P=0.014] and PEEP >6.5 cmH2O (adjusted OR 1.651, 95% CI: 1.218–2.237, P=0.001) were independent predictors for ARDS development with a sensitivity of 58.3% and 87.5%, respectively, and pH <7.35 (adjusted OR 0.832, 95% CI: 0.702–0.985, P=0.033) was an independent risk factor for ARDS mortality with a sensitivity of 95.2%. Conclusions ARDS development risk could be early recognized by PEEP >6.5 cmH2O and serum FiB >5.15 g/L in severe pneumonia patients, and pH <7.35 is a reliable prognostic factor in predicting ARDS mortality risk. PMID:29268409

Predicting Time to Hospital Discharge for Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Hintz, Susan R.; Bann, Carla M.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Cotten, C. Michael; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2010-01-01

As extremely preterm infant mortality rates have decreased, concerns regarding resource utilization have intensified. Accurate models to predict time to hospital discharge could aid in resource planning, family counseling, and perhaps stimulate quality improvement initiatives. Objectives For infants <27 weeks estimated gestational age (EGA), to develop, validate and compare several models to predict time to hospital discharge based on time-dependent covariates, and based on the presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective analysis of infants <27 weeks EGA, born 7/2002-12/2005 and surviving to discharge from a NICHD Neonatal Research Network site. Time to discharge was modeled as continuous (postmenstrual age at discharge, PMAD), and categorical variables (“Early” and “Late” discharge). Three linear and logistic regression models with time-dependent covariate inclusion were developed (perinatal factors only, perinatal+early neonatal factors, perinatal+early+later factors). Models for Early and Late discharge using the cumulative presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors were also evaluated. Predictive capabilities were compared using coefficient of determination (R2) for linear models, and AUC of ROC curve for logistic models. Results Data from 2254 infants were included. Prediction of PMAD was poor, with only 38% of variation explained by linear models. However, models incorporating later clinical characteristics were more accurate in predicting “Early” or “Late” discharge (full models: AUC 0.76-0.83 vs. perinatal factor models: AUC 0.56-0.69). In simplified key risk factors models, predicted probabilities for Early and Late discharge compared favorably with observed rates. Furthermore, the AUC (0.75-0.77) were similar to those of models including the full factor set. Conclusions Prediction of Early or Late discharge is poor if only perinatal factors are considered, but improves substantially with knowledge of later-occurring morbidities. Prediction using a few key risk factors is comparable to full models, and may offer a clinically applicable strategy. PMID:20008430

Does the Mediterranean diet predict longevity in the elderly? A Swedish perspective.

PubMed

Tognon, Gianluca; Rothenberg, Elisabet; Eiben, Gabriele; Sundh, Valter; Winkvist, Anna; Lissner, Lauren

2011-09-01

Dietary pattern analysis represents a useful improvement in the investigation of diet and health relationships. Particularly, the Mediterranean diet pattern has been associated with reduced mortality risk in several studies involving both younger and elderly population groups. In this research, relationships between dietary macronutrient composition, as well as the Mediterranean diet, and total mortality were assessed in 1,037 seventy-year-old subjects (540 females) information. Diet macronutrient composition was not associated with mortality, while a refined version of the modified Mediterranean diet index showed a significant inverse association (HR=0.93, 95% CI: 0.89; 0.98). As expected, inactive subjects, smokers and those with a higher waist circumference had a higher mortality, while a reduced risk characterized married and more educated people. Sensitivity analyses (which confirmed our results) consisted of: exclusion of one food group at a time in the Mediterranean diet index, exclusion of early deaths, censoring at fixed follow-up time, adjusting for activities of daily living and main cardiovascular risk factors including weight/waist circumference changes at follow up. In conclusion, we can reasonably state that a higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet pattern, especially by consuming wholegrain cereals, foods rich in polyunsaturated fatty acids, and a limited amount of alcohol, predicts increased longevity in the elderly.

HbA1c is outcome predictor in diabetic patients with sepsis.

PubMed

Gornik, Ivan; Gornik, Olga; Gasparović, Vladimir

2007-07-01

We have investigated predictive value of HbA1c for hospital mortality and length of stay (LOS) in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted because of sepsis. A prospective observational study was implemented in a university hospital, 286 patients with type 2 diabetes admitted with sepsis were included. Leukocyte count, CRP, admission plasma glucose, APACHE II and SOFA score were noted at admission, HbA1c was measured on the first day following admission. Hospital mortality and hospital length of stay (LOS) were the outcome measures. Admission HbA1c was significantly lower in surviving patients than in non-survivors (median 8.2% versus 9.75%, respectively; P<0.001). There was a significant correlation between admission HbA1c and hospital LOS of surviving patients (r=0.29; P<0.001). Logistic regression showed that HbA1c is an independent predictor of hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.36), together with female sex (OR 2.24), APACHE II score (OR 1.08) and SOFA score (OR 1.28). Multiple regression showed that HbA1c and APACHE II score are independently related to hospital LOS. According to our results, HbA1c is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality and hospital LOS of diabetic patients with sepsis.

Risk factors for competing noncancer mortality after definitive treatment for advanced-stage head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Yong Han; Roh, Jong-Lyel; Kim, Sung-Bae; Choi, Seung-Ho; Nam, Soon Yuhl; Kim, Sang Yoon

2018-05-27

Patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) can die of index tumor progression and second tumor or noncancer causes. Here, we investigated the risk factors for competing noncancer mortality (NCM) in a prospective cohort of patients with advanced-stage HNC. A prospective observational study was conducted with 604 patients who underwent definitive treatment for advanced-stage HNC between 2010 and 2015. Main outcomes were NCM and cancer mortality (CM) defined as death from noncancer causes and HNC or second cancers, respectively. Cumulative incidence and cause-specific hazard functions were used to analyze the risk factors of NCM and CM. Age, smoking, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), performance status, body mass index, rural residence, education and hemoglobin level at diagnosis, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with NCM (all P<0.05). Multivariate analyses showed that age, CCI, and hemoglobin were independent factors of NCM. Age (≥65 years), CCI (≥2), and hemoglobin (<11 g/dL) were related to 4.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-fold increased adjusted risk of NCM, respectively. Old age, comorbidity, and hemoglobin at diagnosis were independent predictors of NCM. The risk factors could be used to predict noncancer death after definitive treatment for advanced-stage HNC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Acute myeloid leukemia: 2016 Update on risk-stratification and management.

PubMed

Estey, Elihu

2016-08-01

Evidence suggest that even patients aged 70 or above benefit from specific AML therapy. The fundamental decision in AML then becomes whether to recommend standard or investigational treatment. This decision must rest on the likely outcome of standard treatment. Hence we review factors that predict treatment related mortality and resistance to therapy, the latter the principal cause of failure even in patients aged 70 or above. We emphasize the limitations of prediction of resistance based only on pre- treatment factors and stress the need to incorporate post-treatment factors, for example indicators of minimal residual disease. We review various newer therapeutic options and considerations that underlie the decision to recommend allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant. Am. J. Hematol. 91:825-846, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Outcome scoring systems for short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

PubMed

Tu, Kun-Hua; Jenq, Chang-Chyi; Tsai, Ming-Hung; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Chang, Ming-Yang; Tian, Ya-Chung; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chen, Yung-Chang

2011-11-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This study evaluated specific predictors and scoring systems for hospital and 6-month mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. This investigation is a prospective clinical study performed in a 10-bed specialized hepatogastroenterology ICU in a tertiary care university hospital in Taiwan. Two hundred two consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU during a 2-year period were enrolled in this study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables recorded on the first day of ICU admission and scoring systems applied were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis for predicting survival. The overall hospital mortality was 59.9%, and the 6-month mortality rate was 70.8%. The main causes of cirrhosis were hepatitis B (29%), hepatitis C (22%), and alcoholism (20%). The major cause of ICU admission was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (36%). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) score at the 48th hour of ICU admission and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) as well as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores on the first day of ICU admission were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. The SOFA score had the best discriminatory power (0.872 ± 0.036), whereas the AKIN had the best Youden index (0.57) and the highest correctness of prediction (79%). Cumulative survival rates at the 6-month follow-up after hospital discharge differed significantly (P < 0.05) for AKIN stage 0 vs. stages 1, 2, and 3, and for AKIN stage 1 vs. stage 3. The AKIN, SOFA, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores showed well discriminative power in predicting hospital mortality in this group of patients. The AKIN scoring system proved to be a reproducible evaluation tool with excellent prognostic abilities for these patients.

Comparison of scoring systems and outcome of patients admitted to a liver intensive care unit of a tertiary referral centre with severe variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Al-Freah, M A B; Gera, A; Martini, S; McPhail, M J W; Devlin, J; Harrison, P M; Shawcross, D; Abeles, R D; Taylor, N J; Auzinger, G; Bernal, W; Heneghan, M A; Wendon, J A

2014-06-01

Acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) is associated with significant mortality. To determine outcome and factors associated with hospital mortality (HM) in patients with AVH admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and to compare outcomes of patients requiring transfer to a tertiary ICU (transfer group, TG) to a local in-patient group (LG). A retrospective study of all adult patients (N = 177) admitted to ICU with AVH from 2000-2008 was performed. Median age was 48 years (16-80). Male represented 58%. Median MELD score was 16 (6-39), SOFA score was 8 (6-11). HM was higher in patients who had severe liver disease or critical illness measured by MELD, SOFA, APACHE II scores and number of failed organs (NFO), P < 0.05. Patients with day-1 lactate ≥ 2 mmol/L had increased HM (P < 0.001). MELD score performed as well as APACHE II, SOFA and NFO (P < 0.001) in predicting HM (AUROC = 0.84, 0.81, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively P > 0.05 for pair wise comparisons). Re-bleeding was associated with increased HM (56.9% vs. 31.6%, P = 0.002). The TG (n = 124) had less severe liver disease and critical illness and consequently had lower HM than local patients (32% vs. 57%, P = 0.002). TG patients with ≥2 endoscopies prior to transfer had increased 6-week mortality (P = 0.03). Time from bleeding to transfer ≥3 days was associated with re-bleeding (OR = 2.290, P = 0.043). MELD score was comparable to ICU prognostic models in predicting mortality. Blood lactate was also predictive of hospital mortality. Delays in referrals and repeated endoscopy were associated with increased re-bleeding and mortality in this group. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cardiac Troponin Is a Predictor of Septic Shock Mortality in Cancer Patients in an Emergency Department: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Yang, Zhi; Qdaisat, Aiham; Hu, Zhihuang; Wagar, Elizabeth A; Reyes-Gibby, Cielito; Meng, Qing H; Yeung, Sai-Ching J

2016-01-01

Septic shock may be associated with myocardial damage; however, the prognostic value of cardiac enzymes in cancer patients with septic shock is unknown. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic significance of cardiac enzymes in combination with established prognostic factors in predicting the 7-day mortality rate of patients with septic shock, and we constructed a new scoring system, Septic Oncologic Patients in Emergency Department (SOPED), which includes cardiac enzymes, to predict 7-day mortality rates. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 375 adult cancer patients with septic shock who visited the emergency department of a comprehensive cancer center between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2013. The 7-day and 28-day mortality rates were 19.7% and 37.6%, respectively. The creatine kinase myocardial band fraction and troponin-I were significantly higher in patients who died in ≤7 days and ≤28 days than in those who did not. In Cox regression models, troponin-I >0.05 ng/mL plus Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ Failure (PIRO2011) or Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score was a significant predictor of survival for ≤7 days. With our new SOPED scoring system, the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.836, higher than those for PIRO2011 and MEDS. Troponin-I >0.05 ng/mL was an important predictor of short-term mortality (≤7 days). The SOPED scoring system, which incorporated troponin-I, was more prognostically accurate than were other scores for 7-day mortality. Large multicenter studies are needed to verify our results and prospectively validate the prognostic performance of the SOPED score.

Anti-platelet drugs in patients with femoral neck fractures undergoing cemented hip hemiarthroplasty surgery. A study of complications and mortality.

PubMed

Agudo Quiles, M; Sanz-Reig, J; Alcalá-Santaella Oria de Rueca, R

2015-01-01

To assess complications and factors predicting one-year mortality in patients on antiplatelet agents presenting with femoral neck fractures undergoing hip hemiarthroplasty surgery. A review was made on 50 patients on preoperative antiplatelet agents and 83 patients without preoperative antiplatelet agents. Patients in both groups were treated with cemented hip hemiarthroplasty. A statistical comparison was performed using epidemiological data, comorbidities, mental state, complications and mortality. There was no lost to follow-up. The one-year mortality was 20.3%. In patients without preoperative antiplatelet agents it was 14.4% and in patients with preoperative antiplatelet agents was 30%. Age, ASA grade, number of comorbidities and antiplatelet agent therapy were predictors of one-year mortality. The one-year mortality of patients on clopidogrel was 46.1%, versus 24.3% in patients on acetylsalicylic acid. Patients with preoperative antiplatelet therapy were older and had greater number of comorbidities, ASA grade, delayed surgery, and a longer length of stay than patients without antiplatelet therapy. The one-year mortality was higher in patients with preoperative antiplatelet therapy. Copyright © 2014 SECOT. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

High levels of cynical distrust partly predict premature mortality in middle-aged to ageing men.

PubMed

Šmigelskas, Kastytis; Joffė, Roza; Jonynienė, Jolita; Julkunen, Juhani; Kauhanen, Jussi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of cynical distrust on mortality in middle-aged and aging men. The analysis is based on Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study, follow-up from 1984 to 2011. Sample consisted of 2682 men, aged 42-61 years at baseline. Data on mortality was provided by the National Death Registry, causes of death were classified by the National Center of Statistics of Finland. Cynical distrust was measured at baseline using Cynical Distrust Scale. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox regression models. In crude estimates after 28 years of follow-up, high cynical distrust was associated with 1.5-1.7 higher hazards for earlier death compared to low cynical distrust. Adjusted for conventional risk factors, high cynical distrust was significantly associated regarding CVD-free men and CVD mortality, while non-CVD mortality in study sample was consistently but not significantly associated. The risk effects were more expressed after 12-20 years rather than in earlier or later follow-up. To conclude, high cynical distrust associates with increased risk of CVD mortality in CVD-free men. The associations with non-CVD mortality are weaker and not reach statistical significance.

Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

PubMed

Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

2017-07-01

Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical utility of EMSE and STESS in predicting hospital mortality for status epilepticus.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Deng; Xu, Da; Tan, Ge; Liu, Ling

2018-05-25

To explore the applicability of the epidemiology-based mortality score in status epilepticus (EMSE) and the status epilepticus severity score (STESS) in predicting hospital mortality in patients with status epilepticus (SE) in western China. Furthermore, we sought to compare the abilities of the two scales to predict mortality from convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) and non-convulsive status epilepticus (NCSE). Patients with epilepsy (n = 253) were recruited from the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2012 to January 2016. The EMSE and STESS for all patients were calculated immediately after admission. The main outcome was in-hospital death. The predicted values were analysed using SPSS 22.0 receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Of the 253 patients with SE who were included in the study, 39 (15.4%) died in the hospital. Using STESS ≥4 points to predict SE mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.724 (P < 0.05). Using EMSE ≥79 points, the AUC was 0.776 (P < 0.05). To predict mortality in NCSE, STESS ≥2 points was used and resulted in an AUC of 0.632 (P > 0.05), while EMSE ≥90 points gave an AUC of 0.666 (P > 0.05). The hospital mortality rate from SE in this study was 15.4%. Those with STESS ≥4 points or EMSE ≥79 points had higher rates of SE mortality. Both STESS and EMSE are less useful predicting in-hospital mortality in NCSE compared to CSE. Furthermore, the EMSE has some advantages over the STESS. Copyright © 2018 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Post-operative Mortality in Patients with HCV-related Cirrhosis Undergoing Non-Hepatic Surgeries

PubMed Central

Hemida, Khalid; Shabana, Sherif Sadek; Said, Hani; Ali-Eldin, Fatma

2016-01-01

Introduction Patients with chronic liver diseases are at great risk for both morbidity and mortality during the post-operative period due to the stress of surgery and the effects of general anaesthesia. Aim The main aim of this study was to evaluate the value of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, as compared to Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, for prediction of 30- day post-operative mortality in Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing non-hepatic surgery under general anaesthesia. Materials and Methods A total of 60 patients with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) - related liver cirrhosis were included in this study. Sensitivity and specificity of MELD and CTP scores were evaluated for the prediction of post-operative mortality. A total of 20 patients who had no clinical, biochemical or radiological evidence of liver disease were included to serve as a control group. Results The highest sensitivity and specificity for detection of post-operative mortality was detected at a MELD score of 13.5. CTP score had a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 96.4%, and an overall accuracy of 95% for prediction of post-operative mortality. On the other side and at a cut-off value of 13.5, MELD score had a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 64.0%, and an overall accuracy of 66.6% for prediction of post-operative mortality in patients with HCV- related liver cirrhosis. Conclusion MELD score proved to be more sensitive but less specific than CTP score for prediction of post-operative mortality. CTP and MELD scores may be complementary rather than competitive in predicting post-operative mortality in patients with HCV- related liver cirrhosis. PMID:27891371

Risk Stratification for the Development of Respiratory Adverse Events Following Vascular Surgery Using the Society of Vascular Surgery’s Vascular Quality Initiative

PubMed Central

Genovese, Elizabeth A; Fish, Larry; Chaer, Rabih A; Makaroun, Michel S; Baril, Donald T

2017-01-01

Objective Post-operative respiratory adverse events (RAEs) are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality in general surgery, however little is known about these complications in the vascular surgery population, a frail subset with multiple comorbidities. The objective of this study was to describe the contemporary incidence of RAEs in vascular surgery patients, the risk factors for this complication and the overall impact of RAEs on patient outcomes. Methods The Vascular Quality Initiative was queried (2003–2014) for patients who underwent endovascular abdominal aortic repair, open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR), suprainguinal bypass or infrainguinal bypass. A mixed-effects logistic regression model determined the independent risk factors for RAEs. Using a random 85% of the cohort, a risk prediction score for RAEs was created and the score was validated using the remaining 15% of the cohort, comparing the predicted to the actual incidence of RAE and determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The independent risk of in-hospital mortality and discharge to a nursing facility associated with RAEs was determined using a mixed-effects logistic regression to control for baseline patient characteristics, operative variables and other post-operative adverse events. Results The cohort consisted of 52,562 patients, with a 5.4% incidence of RAEs. The highest rates of RAEs were seen in current smokers (6.1%), recent acute myocardial infarction (10.1%), symptomatic congestive heart failure (CHF) (9.9%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requiring oxygen therapy (11.0%), urgent and emergent procedures (6.4% and 25.9%, respectively), open AAA repairs (17.6%), in-situ suprainguinal bypasses (9.68%) and TEVARs (9.6%). The variables included in the risk prediction score were age, body mass index, smoking status, CHF severity, COPD severity, degree of renal insufficiency, ambulatory status, transfer status, urgency and operative type. The predicted compared to the actual RAE incidence were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.943 (P<.0001) and a c-statistic=0.818. RAEs had a significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality (25.4% vs. 1.2%, P<.0001, adjusted OR=5.85, P<.0001) and discharge to a nursing facility (57.8% vs. 19.0%, P<.0001, adjusted OR=3.14, P<.0001). Conclusions RAEs are frequent and one of the strongest risk factors for in-hospital mortality and inability to be discharged home. Our risk prediction score accurately stratifies patients based on key demographics, comorbidities, presentation, and operative type that can be used to guide patient counseling, preoperative optimization, and post-operative management. Furthermore, it may be useful in developing quality benchmarks for RAE following major vascular surgery. PMID:27832989

Socio-economic and demographic determinants of under-five mortality in rural northern Ghana

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In spite of global decline in under-five mortality, the goal of achieving MDG 4 still remains largely unattained in low and middle income countries as the year 2015 closes-in. To accelerate the pace of mortality decline, proven interventions with high impact need to be implemented to help achieve the goal of drastically reducing childhood mortality. This paper explores the association between socio-economic and demographic factors and under-five mortality in an impoverished region in rural northern Ghana. Methods We used survey data on 3975 women aged 15–49 who have ever given birth. First, chi-square test was used to test the association of social, economic and demographic characteristics of mothers with the experience of under-five death. Subsequently, we ran a logistic regression model to estimate the relative association of factors that influence childhood mortality after excluding variables that were not significant at the bivariate level. Results Factors that significantly predict under-five mortality included mothers’ educational level, presence of co-wives, age and marital status. Mothers who have achieved primary or junior high school education were 45% less likely to experience under-five death than mothers with no formal education at all (OR = 0.55, p < 0.001). Monogamous women were 22% less likely to experience under-five deaths than mothers in polygamous marriages (OR = 0.78, p = 0.01). Similarly, mothers who were between the ages of 35 and 49 were about eleven times more likely to experience under-five deaths than those below the age of 20 years (OR = 11.44, p < 0.001). Also, women who were married had a 27% less likelihood (OR = 0.73, p = 0.01) of experiencing an under-five death than those who were single, divorced or widowed. Conclusion Taken independently, maternal education, age, marital status and presence of co-wives are associated with childhood mortality. The relationship of these indicators with women’s autonomy, health seeking behavior, and other factors that affect child survival merit further investigation so that interventions could be designed to foster reductions in child mortality by considering the needs and welfare of women including the need for female education, autonomy and socioeconomic well-being. PMID:25145383

The influence of prefire tree growth and crown condition on postfire mortality of sugar pine following prescribed fire in Sequoia National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Das, Adrian J.; O'Hara, Kevin L.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.

2015-01-01

Tree mortality is a vital component of forest management in the context of prescribed fires; however, few studies have examined the effect of prefire tree health on postfire mortality. This is especially relevant for sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), a species experiencing population declines due to a suite of anthropogenic factors. Using data from an old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Sequoia National Park, we evaluated the effects of fire, tree size, prefire radial growth, and crown condition on postfire mortality. Models based only on tree size and measures of fire damage were compared with models that included tree size, fire damage, and prefire tree health (e.g., measures of prefire tree radial growth or crown condition). Immediately following the fire, the inclusion of different metrics of prefire tree health produced variable improvements over the models that included only tree size and measures of fire damage, as models that included measures of crown condition performed better than fire-only models, but models that included measures of prefire radial growth did not perform better. However, 5 years following the fire, sugar pine mortality was best predicted by models that included measures of both fire damage and prefire tree health, specifically, diameter at breast height (DBH, 1.37 m), crown scorch, 30-year mean growth, and the number of sharp declines in growth over a 30-year period. This suggests that factors that influence prefire tree health (e.g., drought, competition, pathogens, etc.) may partially determine postfire mortality, especially when accounting for delayed mortality following fire.

Using predicted 30 day mortality to plan postoperative colorectal surgery care: a cohort study.

PubMed

Swart, M; Carlisle, J B; Goddard, J

2017-01-01

Preoperative identification of high-risk surgical patients might help to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality. Using a patient's predicted 30 day mortality to plan postoperative high-dependency unit (HDU) care after elective colorectal surgery might be associated with reduced postoperative morbidity. The 30 day postoperative mortality was predicted for 504 elective colorectal surgical patients in a preoperative clinic. The prediction was used to determine postoperative surgical ward or HDU care. Those with a predicted 30 day mortality of 1-3% mortality, and thus deemed at intermediate risk, had either planned HDU care (n=68) or planned ward care (n=139). The main outcome measures were emergency laparotomy and unplanned critical care admission. There were more emergency laparotomies and unplanned critical care admissions in patients with a predicted 30 day mortality of 1-3% who went to an HDU after surgery compared with patients who went to a ward: 0 vs 14 (10%), P=0.0056 and 0 vs 22 (16%), P=0.0002, respectively. Planned postoperative critical care was associated with a lower rate of complications after elective colorectal surgery. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Thiblin, Ingemar; Byberg, Liisa; Melhus, Håkan; Lindbäck, Johan; Michaelsson, Karl

2010-10-01

To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41,243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS.

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

PubMed Central

Layton, J. Bradley

2010-01-01

Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

New-onset atrial fibrillation in bacteremia is not associated with C-reactive protein, but is an indicator of increased mortality during hospitalization.

PubMed

Kindem, Ingvild A; Reindal, Eva K; Wester, Astrid L; Blaasaas, Karl G; Atar, Dan

2008-01-01

Several studies have associated elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels to the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to estimate the frequency and prognostic impact of AF in patients with bacteremia, and to study the possible association between AF and CRP as well as between AF and mortality in this population. We retrospectively evaluated patient charts of patients with bacteremia with Escherichia coli or Streptococcus pneumoniae admitted to the Aker University Hospital in Oslo between 1994 and 2004. Known cardiac risk factors for AF, signs and mode of conversion of AF, and, if applicable, date of death were registered, as were characteristics of infection, such as systemic inflammatory response syndrome and white blood cell count. Initial CRP values were categorized into 4 strata. Odds ratios of the 3 highest CRP categories compared with the lowest were obtained from logistic models adjusting for known cardiac risk factors for AF as well as possible factors that may have had an impact on the odds ratios for the different CRP levels. Cox regression analysis was used to compare new-onset AF and death during the first 2 weeks after hospitalization. A total of 672 patient charts were studied; 104 patients (15.4%) had new-onset AF. Peak incidence of new-onset AF occurred on the day of admission. Peak CRP values were reached during the following 2 days. High CRP level at admission did not predict the occurrence of AF. The observed mortality was higher among patients with new-onset AF (p = 0.001) during the first 2 weeks after hospitalization, but this effect disappears when adjusted for relevant factors. The frequency of new-onset AF in bacteremia is substantial. Initial CRP levels or white blood cell count do not seem to predict new-onset AF, as opposed to systemic inflammatory response syndrome. On the other hand, in patients with bacteremia, new-onset AF should be viewed as an indicator of increased mortality and morbidity. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Severe leukopenia in Staphylococcus aureus-necrotizing, community-acquired pneumonia: risk factors and impact on survival

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Necrotizing pneumonia attributed to Panton-Valentine leukocidin-positive Staphylococcus aureus has mainly been reported in otherwise healthy children and young adults, with a high mortality rate. Erythroderma, airway bleeding, and leukopenia have been shown to be predictive of mortality. The objectives of this study were to define the characteristics of patients with severe leukopenia at 48-h hospitalization and to update our data regarding mortality predicting factors in a larger population than we had previously described. Methods It was designed as a case-case study nested in a cohort study. A total of 148 cases of community-acquired, necrotizing pneumonia were included. The following data were collected: basic demographic information, medical history, signs and symptoms, radiological findings and laboratory results during the first 48 h of hospitalization. The study population was divided into 2 groups: (1) with severe leukopenia (leukocyte count ≤3,000 leukocytes/mL, n=62) and (2) without severe leukopenia (>3,000 leukocytes/mL, n=86). Results Median age was 22 years, and the male-to-female gender ratio was 1.5. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 41.2%. Death occurred in 75.8% of severe leukopenia cases with median survival time of 4 days, and in 16.3% of cases with leukocyte count >3,000/mL (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that the factors associated with severe leukopenia were influenza-like illness (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.45, 95% CI (95% confidence interval) 1.67-11.88, P=0.003), airway bleeding (aOR 4.53, 95% CI 1.85-11.13, P=0.001) and age over 30 years (aOR 2.69, 95% CI 1.08-6.68, P=0.033). A personal history of furuncles appeared to be protective (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.01-0.96, P=0.046). Conclusion S. aureus-necrotizing pneumonia is still an extremely severe disease in patients with severe leukopenia. Some factors could distinguish these patients, allowing better initial identification to initiate adapted, rapid administration of appropriate therapy. PMID:23915338

Prognostic Factors for Hospital Mortality and ICU Admission in Patients With ANCA-Related Pulmonary Vasculitis

PubMed Central

Holguin, Fernando; Ramadan, Bassel; Gal, Anthony A.; Roman, Jesse

2015-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the factors predictive of 28-day mortality and admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis. Methods We reviewed the medical records and imaging studies of 65 patients diagnosed with ANCA-related vasculitis hospitalized with pulmonary complications between February 1985 and November 2002. All patients underwent open or video-assisted thoracoscopic lung biopsy, had a positive ANCA serology, and were negative for glomerular basement membrane antibodies. Results At presentation, 72% had dyspnea, 68% fever, 47% cough, 45% elevated blood pressure, 32.3% hemoptysis, 26.1% sinus involvement, 15% renal failure, and 4.6% scleritis. Pathological findings included alveolar hemorrhage (60%), granulomatous inflammation (46%), and capillaritis (38%). A significant number required mechanical ventilation (27.7%), hemodialysis (24.6%), continuous renal replacement therapy (3.1%), and plasmapheresis (3.1%). The 28-day mortality was 16.9% (11/65). Mechanical ventilation (OR 68, P < 0.005), admission to ICU (OR 18.5, P < 0.01), and blood transfusion (OR 22.4, P < 0.004) were strong predictors of increased mortality within 28 days after admission. Respiratory failure (OR 31, P < 0.0007), hemoptysis (OR 2.9, P < 0.06), smoking (OR 5.9, P < 0.02), and acute renal failure (OR 7.8, P < 0.01) were also predictors for admission to the ICU. Conclusion In patients with ANCA-related pulmonary vasculitis several clinical factors, but not pathologic findings or ANCA titers, are associated with ICU admission and/or 28-day mortality. PMID:18854674

Mortality and prognostic factors in idiopathic inflammatory myositis: a retrospective analysis of a large multicenter cohort of Spain.

PubMed

Nuño-Nuño, Laura; Joven, Beatriz Esther; Carreira, Patricia E; Maldonado-Romero, Valentina; Larena-Grijalba, Carmen; Cubas, Irene Llorente; Tomero, Eva Gloria; Barbadillo-Mateos, María Carmen; De la Peña Lefebvre, Paloma García; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Lucía; López-Robledillo, Juan Carlos; Moruno-Cruz, Henry; Pérez, Ana; Cobo-Ibáñez, Tatiana; Almodóvar González, Raquel; Lojo, Leticia; García De Yébenes, María Jesús; López-Longo, Francisco Javier

2017-11-01

The present study was undertaken to assess mortality, causes of death, and associated prognostic factors in a large cohort of patients diagnosed with idiopathic inflammatory myositis (IIM) from Spain. A retrospective longitudinal study was carried out in 467 consecutive patients with IIM, identified from 12 medical centers. Patients were classified as primary polymyositis, primary dermatomyositis (DM), overlap myositis, cancer-associated myositis (CAM), and juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies. A total of 113 deaths occurred (24%) after a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. In the overall cohort, the 2-, 5-, and 10-year survival probabilities were 91.9, 86.7, and 77%, respectively. Main causes of death were infections and cancer (24% each). Multivariate model revealed that CAM (HR = 24.06), OM (HR = 12.00), DM (HR = 7.26), higher age at diagnosis (HR = 1.02), severe infections (HR = 3.66), interstitial lung disease (HR = 1.61), and baseline elevation of acute phase reactants (HR = 3.03) were associated with a worse prognosis, while edema of the hands (HR = 0.39), female gender (HR = 0.39), and longer disease duration (HR = 0.73) were associated with a better prognosis. The standardized mortality ratio was 1.56 (95% CI 1.28-1.87) compared to the Spanish general population. Our findings indicate that IIM has a high long-term mortality, with an excess of mortality compared to the Spanish population. A more aggressive therapy may be required in IIM patients presenting with poor predictive factors.

PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

Influence of Mortality Factors and Host Resistance on the Population Dynamics of Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Urban Forests.

PubMed

Macquarrie, Chris J K; Scharbach, Roger

2015-02-01

The success of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) in North America is hypothesized to be due to both the lack of significant natural enemies permitting easy establishment and a population of trees that lack the ability to defend themselves, which allows populations to grow unchecked. Since its discovery in 2002, a number of studies have examined mortality factors of the insect in forests, but none have examined the role of natural enemies and other mortality agents in the urban forest. This is significant because it is in the urban forest where the emerald ash borer has had the most significant economic impacts. We studied populations in urban forests in three municipalities in Ontario, Canada, between 2010 and 2012 using life tables and stage-specific survivorship to analyze data from a split-rearing manipulative experiment. We found that there was little overall mortality caused by natural enemies; most mortality we did observe was caused by disease. Stage-specific survivorship was lowest in small and large larvae, supporting previous observations of high mortality in these two stages. We also used our data to test the hypothesis that mortality and density in emerald ash borer are linked. Our results support the prediction of a negative relationship between mortality and density. However, the relationship varies between insects developing in the crown and those in the trunk of the tree. This relationship was significant because when incorporated with previous findings, it suggests a mechanism and hypothesis to explain the outbreak dynamics of the emerald ash borer. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling compensatory responses of ecosystem-scale water fluxes in forests affected by pine and spruce beetle mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, D.; Ewers, B. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Mackay, D. S.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Reed, D. E.

2015-12-01

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) epidemics have led to extensive mortality in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) forests in the Rocky Mountains of the western US. In both of these tree species, mortality results from hydraulic failure within the xylem, due to blue stain fungal infection associated with beetle attack. However, the impacts of these disturbances on ecosystem-scale water fluxes can be complex, owing to their variable and transient nature. In this work, xylem scaling factors that reduced whole-tree conductance were initially incorporated into a forest ecohydrological model (TREES) to simulate the impact of beetle mortality on evapotranspiration (ET) in both pine and spruce forests. For both forests, simulated ET was compared to observed ET fluxes recorded using eddy covariance techniques. Using xylem scaling factors, the model overestimated the impact of beetle mortality, and observed ET fluxes were approximately two-fold higher than model predictions in both forests. The discrepancy between simulated and observed ET following the onset of beetle mortality may be the result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of plant communities within the foot prints of the eddy covariance towers. Since simulated ET fluxes following beetle mortality in both forests only accounted for approximately 50% of those observed in the field, it is possible that newly established understory vegetation in recently killed tree stands may play a role in stabilizing ecosystem ET fluxes. Here, we further investigate the unaccounted for ET fluxes in the model by breaking it down into multiple cohorts that represent live trees, dying trees, and understory vegetation that establishes following tree mortality.

Influence of minor deterioration of renal function after PCI on outcome in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Kanic, Vojko; Suran, David; Vollrath, Maja; Tapajner, Alojz; Kompara, Gregor

2017-10-01

Our aim was to assess the possible impact of a deterioration of renal function (DRF) not fulfilling the criteria for acute kidney injury after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) on outcome in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) on 30-day and long-term outcomes. Data is lacking on the influence of DRF after PCI on outcome in patients with STEMI. The present study is an analysis of 2572 STEMI patients who underwent PCI. The group with DRF (1022 patients) and the group without DRF (1550 patients) were compared. Thirty-day and long-term all-cause mortality were observed. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Similar mortality was observed in both groups at day 30 (4.2% patients with DRF died vs 3.2% without DRF; ns) but more patients had died in the DRF group (18.9% patients with DRF vs 14.0% without DRF; P = 0.001) by the end of the observation period. After adjustments, DRF did not independently predict long-term mortality. Age more than 70 years, bleeding, hyperlipidemia, renal dysfunction on admission, anemia on admission, diabetes, PCI of LAD, the use of more than 200 mL contrast, but not DRF after PCI, were identified as independent prognostic factors for increased long-term mortality. Renal dysfunction, bleeding, contrast >200 mL, hyperlipidemia, age >70 years, anemia, and PCI LAD predicted DRF. DRF identified patients at increased risk of higher long-term mortality but was not independently associated with mortality. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

Hospital mortality in postoperative critically ill patients older than 80 years. Can we predict it at an early stage?

PubMed

Paz Martín, D; Aliaño Piña, M; Pérez Martín, F; Velaz Domínguez, S; Vázquez Vicente, B; Poza Hernández, P; Ávila Sánchez, F J

2016-01-01

To determine the incidence of in-hospital mortality throughout the post-surgical period of patients aged 80 or over who were admitted to the post-surgical critical care unit, as well as to assess the predictive capacity of those variables existing in the first 48hours on the in-hospital mortality. An observational retrospective cohort study conducted on postsurgical patients up to 80years old who were admitted to the unit between June 2011 and December 2013. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was used to determine the association between mortality and the independent variables. Of the 186 patients included, 9 (4.8%) died in the critical care unit, and 22 (11.8%) died in wards during hospital admission, giving a hospital mortality of 31 (16.7%). Among the 78 patients (42%) that underwent acute surgery, and the 108 who underwent elective surgery, there was a mortality rate of 19 (10.2%) and 12 (6.5%), respectively. As regards the variables analysed during the first 48hours of admission that showed to be hospital mortality risk factor were the need for mechanical ventilation over 48h, with an OR: 7.146 (95%CI: 1.563-32.664, P=.011) and the degree of the severity score on the APACHE II scale in the first 24hours, with an OR: 1.102 (95%CI: 1.005-1.208, P=.039). The incidence of hospital mortality in very old patients found in our study is comparable to that reported by other authors. Patients who need mechanical ventilation over 48h, and with higher scores in the APACHE II scale could be at a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Associations between Soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products (sRAGE) and S100A12 (EN-RAGE) with Mortality in Long-term Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Jung, Eul Sik; Chung, Wookyung; Kim, Ae Jin; Ro, Han; Chang, Jae Hyun; Lee, Hyun Hee; Jung, Ji Yong

2017-01-01

Hemodialysis (HD) patients experience vascular calcification, ultimately leading to high mortality rates. Previously, we reported associations between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGEs) and extracellular newly identified RAGE-binding protein S100A12 (EN-RAGE) and vascular calcification. Here, we extended our observations, investigating whether these biomarkers may be useful for predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in these subjects. Thus, we evaluated the relationship between sRAGE and S100A12 and mortality in long-term HD patients. This was a prospective observational cohort study in 199 HD patients from an extended analysis of our previous study. Plasma sRAGE, S100A12, comorbidities, and other traditional risk factors were investigated. The cumulative incidences for death using Cox proportional hazards regression were evaluated in multivariable analyses. The observation period was 44 months. During the observation period, 27 (13.6%) patients died. Univariate analysis demonstrated that S100A12 was correlated with diabetes (P = 0.040) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (P = 0.006). In multivariable analyses, plasma sRAGE (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.155; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.612-2.183; P = 0.656) and S100A12 (HR = 0.960; 95% CI = 0.566-1.630; P = 0.881) were not associated with mortality in HD patients, although traditional predictors of mortality, including age, history of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and serum levels of albumin and hsCRP were related to mortality. Powerful predictors of mortality were age, CVD, and albumin levels. Plasma sRAGE and S100A12 may be weak surrogate markers for predicting all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD, although S100A12 was partly related to diabetes and inflammation.

Lactate clearance as the predictor of outcome in pediatric septic shock.

PubMed

Choudhary, Richa; Sitaraman, Sadasivan; Choudhary, Anita

2017-01-01

Septic shock can rapidly evolve into multiple system organ failure and death. In the recent years, hyperlactatemia has been found to be a risk factor for mortality in critically ill adults. To evaluate the predictive value of lactate clearance and to determine the optimal cut-off value for predicting outcome in children with septic shock. A prospective observational study was performed on children with septic shock admitted to pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Serial lactate levels were measured at PICU admission, 24 and 48 h later. Lactate clearance, percent decrease in lactate level in 24 h, was calculated. The primary outcome measure was survival or nonsurvival at the end of hospital stay. We performed receiver operating characteristic analyses to calculate optimal cut-off values. The mean lactate levels at admission were significantly higher in the nonsurvivors than survivors, 5.12 ± 3.51 versus 3.13 ± 1.71 mmol/L ( P = 0.0001). The cut-off for lactate level at admission for the best prediction of mortality was determined as ≥4 mmol/L (odds ratio 5.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] =2.45-12.09). Mean lactate clearance was significantly higher in survivors than nonsurvivors (17.9 ± 39.9 vs. -23.2 ± 62.7; P < 0.0001). A lactate clearance rate of <10% at 24 h had a sensitivity and specificity of 78.7% and 72.2%, respectively and a positive predictive value of 83.1% for death. Failure to achieve a lactate clearance of more than 10% was associated with greater risk of mortality (likelihood ratio + 2.83; 95% CI = 1.82-4.41). Serial lactate levels can be used to predict outcome in pediatric septic shock. A 24 h lactate clearance cut-off of <10% is a predictor of in-hospital mortality in such patients.

Interpreting the spatio-temporal patterns of sea turtle strandings: Going with the flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, K.M.; Mooreside, P.; Crowder, L.B.

2006-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of specific mortality sources is crucial for management of species that are vulnerable to human interactions. Beachcast carcasses represent an unknown fraction of at-sea mortalities. While a variety of physical (e.g., water temperature) and biological (e.g., decomposition) factors as well as the distribution of animals and their mortality sources likely affect the probability of carcass stranding, physical oceanography plays a major role in where and when carcasses strand. Here, we evaluate the influence of nearshore physical oceanographic and wind regimes on sea turtle strandings to decipher seasonal trends and make qualitative predictions about stranding patterns along oceanfront beaches. We use results from oceanic drift-bottle experiments to check our predictions and provide an upper limit on stranding proportions. We compare predicted current regimes from a 3D physical oceanographic model to spatial and temporal locations of both sea turtle carcass strandings and drift bottle landfalls. Drift bottle return rates suggest an upper limit for the proportion of sea turtle carcasses that strand (about 20%). In the South Atlantic Bight, seasonal development of along-shelf flow coincides with increased numbers of strandings of both turtles and drift bottles in late spring and early summer. The model also predicts net offshore flow of surface waters during winter - the season with the fewest relative strandings. The drift bottle data provide a reasonable upper bound on how likely carcasses are to reach land from points offshore and bound the general timeframe for stranding post-mortem (< two weeks). Our findings suggest that marine turtle strandings follow a seasonal regime predictable from physical oceanography and mimicked by drift bottle experiments. Managers can use these findings to reevaluate incidental strandings limits and fishery takes for both nearshore and offshore mortality sources. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing self-reported health status and diagnosis-based risk adjustment to predict 1- and 2 to 5-year mortality.

PubMed

Pietz, Kenneth; Petersen, Laura A

2007-04-01

To compare the ability of two diagnosis-based risk adjustment systems and health self-report to predict short- and long-term mortality. Data were obtained from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative databases. The study population was 78,164 VA beneficiaries at eight medical centers during fiscal year (FY) 1998, 35,337 of whom completed an 36-Item Short Form Health Survey for veterans (SF-36V) survey. We tested the ability of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs), Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs), SF-36V Physical Component score (PCS) and Mental Component Score (MCS), and eight SF-36V scales to predict 1- and 2-5 year all-cause mortality. The additional predictive value of adding PCS and MCS to ACGs and DCGs was also evaluated. Logistic regression models were compared using Akaike's information criterion, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The c-statistics for the eight scales combined with age and gender were 0.766 for 1-year mortality and 0.771 for 2-5-year mortality. For DCGs with age and gender the c-statistics for 1- and 2-5-year mortality were 0.778 and 0.771, respectively. Adding PCS and MCS to the DCG model increased the c-statistics to 0.798 for 1-year and 0.784 for 2-5-year mortality. The DCG model showed slightly better performance than the eight-scale model in predicting 1-year mortality, but the two models showed similar performance for 2-5-year mortality. Health self-report may add health risk information in addition to age, gender, and diagnosis for predicting longer-term mortality.

Comparing Self-Reported Health Status and Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment to Predict 1- and 2 to 5-Year Mortality

PubMed Central

Pietz, Kenneth; Petersen, Laura A

2007-01-01

Objectives To compare the ability of two diagnosis-based risk adjustment systems and health self-report to predict short- and long-term mortality. Data Sources/Study Setting Data were obtained from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative databases. The study population was 78,164 VA beneficiaries at eight medical centers during fiscal year (FY) 1998, 35,337 of whom completed an 36-Item Short Form Health Survey for veterans (SF-36V) survey. Study Design We tested the ability of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs), Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs), SF-36V Physical Component score (PCS) and Mental Component Score (MCS), and eight SF-36V scales to predict 1- and 2–5 year all-cause mortality. The additional predictive value of adding PCS and MCS to ACGs and DCGs was also evaluated. Logistic regression models were compared using Akaike's information criterion, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Principal Findings The c-statistics for the eight scales combined with age and gender were 0.766 for 1-year mortality and 0.771 for 2–5-year mortality. For DCGs with age and gender the c-statistics for 1- and 2–5-year mortality were 0.778 and 0.771, respectively. Adding PCS and MCS to the DCG model increased the c-statistics to 0.798 for 1-year and 0.784 for 2–5-year mortality. Conclusions The DCG model showed slightly better performance than the eight-scale model in predicting 1-year mortality, but the two models showed similar performance for 2–5-year mortality. Health self-report may add health risk information in addition to age, gender, and diagnosis for predicting longer-term mortality. PMID:17362210

Personalized Medicine and Infectious Disease Management.

PubMed

Jensen, Slade O; van Hal, Sebastiaan J

2017-11-01

A recent study identified pathogen factors associated with an increased mortality risk in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, using predictive modelling and a combination of genotypic, phenotypic, and clinical data. This study conceptually validates the benefit of personalized medicine and highlights the potential use of whole genome sequencing in infectious disease management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who Died, Where? Quantification of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.

2014-12-01

During 2011, Texas experienced a severe drought that killed millions of trees across the state. Drought-induced tree mortality can have significant ecological impacts and is expected to increase with climate change. We identify methods to quantify tree mortality in central Texas by using remotely sensed images before and after the drought at multiple spatial resolutions. Fine-scale tree mortality maps were created by classifying 1-m orthophotos from the National Agriculture Imagery Program. These classifications showed a high correlation with field estimates of percent canopy loss (RMSE = 2%; R2=0.9), and were thus used to calibrate coarser scale 30-m Landsat imagery. Random Forest, a machine learning method, was applied to obtain sub-pixel estimates of tree mortality. Traditional per-pixel classification techniques can map mortality of whole stands of trees (e.g. fire). However, these methods are often inadequate in detecting subtle changes in land cover, such as those associated with drought-induced tree mortality, which is often a widespread but scattered disturbance. Our method is unique, because it is capable of mapping death of individual canopies within a pixel. These 30-m tree mortality maps were then used to identify ecological systems most impacted by the drought and edaphic factors that control spatial distributions of tree mortality across central Texas. Ground observations coupled with our remote sensing analyses revealed that the majority of the mortality was Juniperus ashei. From a physiological standpoint this is surprising, because J. ashei is a drought-resistant tree. However, over the last century, this species has recently encroached into many areas previously dominated by grassland. Also, J. ashei tends to occupy landscape positions with lower available water storage, which could explain its high mortality rate. Predominantly tree mortality occurred in dry landscape positions (e.g. areas dominated by shallow soils, a low compound topographic index, and a high heat index). As increases in extreme drought events are predicted to occur with climate change, it will become more important to establish methods capable of detecting associated drought-induced tree mortality, to recognize vulnerable ecological systems, and to identify edaphic factors that predispose trees to mortality.