Two dynamic regimes in the human gut microbiome

PubMed Central

Smillie, Chris S.; Alm, Eric J.

2017-01-01

The gut microbiome is a dynamic system that changes with host development, health, behavior, diet, and microbe-microbe interactions. Prior work on gut microbial time series has largely focused on autoregressive models (e.g. Lotka-Volterra). However, we show that most of the variance in microbial time series is non-autoregressive. In addition, we show how community state-clustering is flawed when it comes to characterizing within-host dynamics and that more continuous methods are required. Most organisms exhibited stable, mean-reverting behavior suggestive of fixed carrying capacities and abundant taxa were largely shared across individuals. This mean-reverting behavior allowed us to apply sparse vector autoregression (sVAR)—a multivariate method developed for econometrics—to model the autoregressive component of gut community dynamics. We find a strong phylogenetic signal in the non-autoregressive co-variance from our sVAR model residuals, which suggests niche filtering. We show how changes in diet are also non-autoregressive and that Operational Taxonomic Units strongly correlated with dietary variables have much less of an autoregressive component to their variance, which suggests that diet is a major driver of microbial dynamics. Autoregressive variance appears to be driven by multi-day recovery from frequent facultative anaerobe blooms, which may be driven by fluctuations in luminal redox. Overall, we identify two dynamic regimes within the human gut microbiota: one likely driven by external environmental fluctuations, and the other by internal processes. PMID:28222117

Two dynamic regimes in the human gut microbiome.

PubMed

Gibbons, Sean M; Kearney, Sean M; Smillie, Chris S; Alm, Eric J

2017-02-01

The gut microbiome is a dynamic system that changes with host development, health, behavior, diet, and microbe-microbe interactions. Prior work on gut microbial time series has largely focused on autoregressive models (e.g. Lotka-Volterra). However, we show that most of the variance in microbial time series is non-autoregressive. In addition, we show how community state-clustering is flawed when it comes to characterizing within-host dynamics and that more continuous methods are required. Most organisms exhibited stable, mean-reverting behavior suggestive of fixed carrying capacities and abundant taxa were largely shared across individuals. This mean-reverting behavior allowed us to apply sparse vector autoregression (sVAR)-a multivariate method developed for econometrics-to model the autoregressive component of gut community dynamics. We find a strong phylogenetic signal in the non-autoregressive co-variance from our sVAR model residuals, which suggests niche filtering. We show how changes in diet are also non-autoregressive and that Operational Taxonomic Units strongly correlated with dietary variables have much less of an autoregressive component to their variance, which suggests that diet is a major driver of microbial dynamics. Autoregressive variance appears to be driven by multi-day recovery from frequent facultative anaerobe blooms, which may be driven by fluctuations in luminal redox. Overall, we identify two dynamic regimes within the human gut microbiota: one likely driven by external environmental fluctuations, and the other by internal processes.

Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn

This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relationsmore » evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.« less

Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

PubMed

Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of multivariate autoregressive spectrum estimation to ULF waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ioannidis, G. A.

1975-01-01

The estimation of the power spectrum of a time series by fitting a finite autoregressive model to the data has recently found widespread application in the physical sciences. The extension of this method to the analysis of vector time series is presented here through its application to ULF waves observed in the magnetosphere by the ATS 6 synchronous satellite. Autoregressive spectral estimates of the power and cross-power spectra of these waves are computed with computer programs developed by the author and are compared with the corresponding Blackman-Tukey spectral estimates. The resulting spectral density matrices are then analyzed to determine the direction of propagation and polarization of the observed waves.

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.

PubMed

Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R

2015-04-01

Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

Hydrological time series modeling: A comparison between adaptive neuro-fuzzy, neural network and autoregressive techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohani, A. K.; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, R. D.

2012-06-01

SummaryTime series modeling is necessary for the planning and management of reservoirs. More recently, the soft computing techniques have been used in hydrological modeling and forecasting. In this study, the potential of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in monthly reservoir inflow forecasting are examined by developing and comparing monthly reservoir inflow prediction models, based on autoregressive (AR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To take care the effect of monthly periodicity in the flow data, cyclic terms are also included in the ANN and ANFIS models. Working with time series flow data of the Sutlej River at Bhakra Dam, India, several ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models are trained with different input vectors. To evaluate the performance of the selected ANN and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, comparison is made with the autoregressive (AR) models. The ANFIS model trained with the input data vector including previous inflows and cyclic terms of monthly periodicity has shown a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy in comparison with the ANFIS models trained with the input vectors considering only previous inflows. In all cases ANFIS gives more accurate forecast than the AR and ANN models. The proposed ANFIS model coupled with the cyclic terms is shown to provide better representation of the monthly inflow forecasting for planning and operation of reservoir.

Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.; Vouldis, Angelos T.

2016-06-01

As a result of domestic and international factors, the Greek economy faced a severe crisis which is directly comparable only to the Great Recession. In this context, a prominent victim of this situation was the country's banking system. This paper attempts to shed light on the determining factors of non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector. The analysis presents empirical evidence from the Greek economy, using aggregate data on a quarterly basis, in the time period 2001-2015, fully capturing the recent recession. In this work, we use a relevant econometric framework based on a real time Vector Autoregressive (VAR)-Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which captures the dynamic interdependencies among the variables used. Consistent with international evidence, the empirical findings show that both macroeconomic and financial factors have a significant impact on non-performing loans in the country. Meanwhile, the deteriorating credit quality feeds back into the economy leading to a self-reinforcing negative loop.

Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia

PubMed Central

Eastin, Matthew D.; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

2014-01-01

Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors—all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C—the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts. PMID:24957546

Effects of Forecasts on the Revisions of Concurrent Seasonally Adjusted Data Using the X-11 Seasonal Adjustment Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bobbitt, Larry; Otto, Mark

Three Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) forecast procedures for Census Bureau X-11 concurrent seasonal adjustment were empirically tested. Forty time series from three Census Bureau economic divisions (business, construction, and industry) were analyzed. Forecasts were obtained from fitted seasonal ARIMA models augmented with…

Education and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Afzal, Muhammad; Rehman, Hafeez Ur; Farooq, Muhammad Shahid; Sarwar, Kafeel

2011-01-01

This study explored the cointegration and causality between education and economic growth in Pakistan by using time series data on real gross domestic product (RGDP), labour force, physical capital and education from 1970-1971 to 2008-2009 were used. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model of Cointegration and the Augmented Granger Causality…

Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

2018-01-01

Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

Identification of multivariable nonlinear systems in the presence of colored noises using iterative hierarchical least squares algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Masoumeh; Salimifard, Maryam; Dehghani, Maryam

2014-07-01

This paper presents an efficient method for identification of nonlinear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems in the presence of colored noises. The method studies the multivariable nonlinear Hammerstein and Wiener models, in which, the nonlinear memory-less block is approximated based on arbitrary vector-based basis functions. The linear time-invariant (LTI) block is modeled by an autoregressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX) model which can effectively describe the moving average noises as well as the autoregressive and the exogenous dynamics. According to the multivariable nature of the system, a pseudo-linear-in-the-parameter model is obtained which includes two different kinds of unknown parameters, a vector and a matrix. Therefore, the standard least squares algorithm cannot be applied directly. To overcome this problem, a Hierarchical Least Squares Iterative (HLSI) algorithm is used to simultaneously estimate the vector and the matrix of unknown parameters as well as the noises. The efficiency of the proposed identification approaches are investigated through three nonlinear MIMO case studies. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

2017-12-01

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

2009-12-01

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

Correction of murine hemophilia A following nonmyeloablative transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells engineered to encode an enhanced human factor VIII variant using a safety-augmented retroviral vector

PubMed Central

Ramezani, Ali

2009-01-01

Insertional mutagenesis by retroviral vectors is a major impediment to the clinical application of hematopoietic stem cell gene transfer for the treatment of hematologic disorders. We recently developed an insulated self-inactivating gammaretroviral vector, RMSinOFB, which uses a novel enhancer-blocking element that significantly decreases genotoxicity of retroviral integration. In this study, we used the RMSinOFB vector to evaluate the efficacy of a newly bioengineered factor VIII (fVIII) variant (efVIII)—containing a combination of A1 domain point mutations (L303E/F309S) and an extended partial B domain for improved secretion plus A2 domain mutations (R484A/R489A/P492A) for reduced immunogenicity—toward successful treatment of murine hemophilia A. In cell lines, efVIII was secreted at up to 6-fold higher levels than an L303E/F309S A1 domain–only fVIII variant (sfVIIIΔB). Most important, when compared with a conventional gammaretroviral vector expressing sfVIIIΔB, lower doses of RMSin-efVIII-OFB–transduced hematopoietic stem cells were needed to generate comparable curative fVIII levels in hemophilia A BALB/c mice after reduced-intensity total body irradiation or nonmyeloablative chemotherapy conditioning regimens. These data suggest that the safety-augmented RMSin-efVIII-OFB platform represents an encouraging step in the development of a clinically appropriate gene addition therapy for hemophilia A. PMID:19470695

Structural Equation Modeling of Multivariate Time Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Browne, Michael W.

2007-01-01

The covariance structure of a vector autoregressive process with moving average residuals (VARMA) is derived. It differs from other available expressions for the covariance function of a stationary VARMA process and is compatible with current structural equation methodology. Structural equation modeling programs, such as LISREL, may therefore be…

Estimating long-run equilibrium real exchange rates: short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts on Pakistan.

PubMed

Zardad, Asma; Mohsin, Asma; Zaman, Khalid

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that affect real exchange rate volatility for Pakistan through the co-integration and error correction model over a 30-year time period, i.e. between 1980 and 2010. The study employed the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the changes in the volatility of real exchange rate series, while an error correction model was used to determine the short-run dynamics of the system. The study is limited to a few variables i.e., productivity differential (i.e., real GDP per capita relative to main trading partner); terms of trade; trade openness and government expenditures in order to manage robust data. The result indicates that real effective exchange rate (REER) has been volatile around its equilibrium level; while, the speed of adjustment is relatively slow. VECM results confirm long run convergence of real exchange rate towards its equilibrium level. Results from ARCH and GARCH estimation shows that real shocks volatility persists, so that shocks die out rather slowly, and lasting misalignment seems to have occurred.

Forecasting Daily Patient Outflow From a Ward Having No Real-Time Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background: Modeling patient flow is crucial in understanding resource demand and prioritization. We study patient outflow from an open ward in an Australian hospital, where currently bed allocation is carried out by a manager relying on past experiences and looking at demand. Automatic methods that provide a reasonable estimate of total next-day discharges can aid in efficient bed management. The challenges in building such methods lie in dealing with large amounts of discharge noise introduced by the nonlinear nature of hospital procedures, and the nonavailability of real-time clinical information in wards. Objective Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. Methods We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features. Results Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014. Conclusions In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments. PMID:27444059

The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

2010-01-01

This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

Vector autoregressive model approach for forecasting outflow cash in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

hoyyi, Abdul; Tarno; Maruddani, Di Asih I.; Rahmawati, Rita

2018-05-01

Multivariate time series model is more applied in economic and business problems as well as in other fields. Applications in economic problems one of them is the forecasting of outflow cash. This problem can be viewed globally in the sense that there is no spatial effect between regions, so the model used is the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data used in this research is data on the money supply in Bank Indonesia Semarang, Solo, Purwokerto and Tegal. The model used in this research is VAR (1), VAR (2) and VAR (3) models. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) is used to estimate parameters. The best model selection criteria use the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The result of data analysis shows that the AIC value of VAR (1) model is equal to 42.72292, VAR (2) equals 42.69119 and VAR (3) equals 42.87662. The difference in AIC values is not significant. Based on the smallest AIC value criteria, the best model is the VAR (2) model. This model has satisfied the white noise assumption.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

2018-01-01

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Representation of high frequency Space Shuttle data by ARMA algorithms and random response spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spanos, P. D.; Mushung, L. J.

1990-01-01

High frequency Space Shuttle lift-off data are treated by autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) digital algorithms. These algorithms provide useful information on the spectral densities of the data. Further, they yield spectral models which lend themselves to incorporation to the concept of the random response spectrum. This concept yields a reasonably smooth power spectrum for the design of structural and mechanical systems when the available data bank is limited. Due to the non-stationarity of the lift-off event, the pertinent data are split into three slices. Each of the slices is associated with a rather distinguishable phase of the lift-off event, where stationarity can be expected. The presented results are rather preliminary in nature; it is aimed to call attention to the availability of the discussed digital algorithms and to the need to augment the Space Shuttle data bank as more flights are completed.

Volatility in GARCH Models of Business Tendency Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuni, Dwi A. S.; Wage, Sutarman; Hartono, Ateng

2018-01-01

This paper aims to obtain a model of business tendency index by considering volatility factor. Volatility factor detected by ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity). The ARCH checking was performed using the Lagrange multiplier test. The modeling is Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are able to overcome volatility problems by incorporating past residual elements and residual variants.

Modeling the Effects of Augmentation Strategies on the Control of Dengue Fever With an Impulsive Differential Equation.

PubMed

Zhang, Xianghong; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A; Zhu, Huaiping

2016-10-01

Dengue fever has rapidly become the world's most common vector-borne viral disease. Use of endosymbiotic Wolbachia is an innovative technology to prevent vector mosquitoes from reproducing and so break the cycle of dengue transmission. However, strategies such as population eradication and replacement will only succeed if appropriate augmentations with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes that take account of a variety of factors are carried out. Here, we describe the spread of Wolbachia in mosquito populations using an impulsive differential system with four state variables, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility and the augmentation of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios. We then evaluated (a) how each parameter value contributes to the success of population replacement; (b) how different release quantities of infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios affect the success of population suppression or replacement; and (c) how the success of these two strategies can be realized to block the transmission of dengue fever. Analysis of the system's stability, bifurcations and sensitivity reveals the existence of forward and backward bifurcations, multiple attractors and the contribution of each parameter to the success of the strategies. The results indicate that the initial density of mosquitoes, the quantities of mosquitoes released in augmentations and their sex ratios have impacts on whether or not the strategies of population suppression or replacement can be achieved. Therefore, successful strategies rely on selecting suitable strains of Wolbachia and carefully designing the mosquito augmentation program.

Asynchronous arterial systolic expansion as a marker of vascular aging: assessment of the carotid artery with velocity vector imaging.

PubMed

Yang, Woo-In; Shim, Chi Y; Bang, Woo D; Oh, Chang M; Chang, Hyuk J; Chung, Namsik; Ha, Jong-Won

2011-12-01

Arterial elastic properties change with aging. Measurements of pulse wave velocity and augmentation index are useful for the evaluation of arterial stiffness. However, they likely represent only global characteristics of the arterial tree rather than local vascular alterations. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether local vascular properties assessed by velocity vector imaging differed with aging. Vascular properties of carotid arteries with ages were assessed in 100 healthy volunteers (52 men) ranging from 20 to 68 years using velocity vector imaging. The peak circumferential strain and strain rate of the six segments in left common carotid arteries were analyzed and the standard deviation of the time to peak circumferential strain and strain rate of the six segments, representing the synchronicity of the arterial expansion, were calculated. Central blood pressure, augmentation index and pulse wave velocity were assessed by commercially available radial artery tonometry, the SphygmoCor system (AtCor Medical, West Ryde, Australia). A validated generalized transfer function was used to acquire the central aortic pressures and pressure waveforms. Pulse wave velocity, augmentation index and velocity vector imaging parameters showed significant changes with age. However, the age-related changes in pulse wave velocity, augmentation index and velocity vector imaging parameters were different. The increase in pulse wave velocity was more prominent in older individuals, whereas the changes in augmentation index and carotid strain and strain rate were evident earlier, at the age of 30 years. Unlike augmentation index, which showed little change in older individuals, the standard deviation of time to peak strain and strain rate showed a steady increase from younger to older individuals. Asynchronous arterial expansion could be a useful discriminative marker of vascular aging independent of individual's age.

Usability Evaluation of an Augmented Reality System for Teaching Euclidean Vectors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin-Gonzalez, Anabel; Chi-Poot, Angel; Uc-Cetina, Victor

2016-01-01

Augmented reality (AR) is one of the emerging technologies that has demonstrated to be an efficient technological tool to enhance learning techniques. In this paper, we describe the development and evaluation of an AR system for teaching Euclidean vectors in physics and mathematics. The goal of this pedagogical tool is to facilitate user's…

Dynamic RSA: Examining parasympathetic regulatory dynamics via vector-autoregressive modeling of time-varying RSA and heart period.

PubMed

Fisher, Aaron J; Reeves, Jonathan W; Chi, Cyrus

2016-07-01

Expanding on recently published methods, the current study presents an approach to estimating the dynamic, regulatory effect of the parasympathetic nervous system on heart period on a moment-to-moment basis. We estimated second-to-second variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in order to estimate the contemporaneous and time-lagged relationships among RSA, interbeat interval (IBI), and respiration rate via vector autoregression. Moreover, we modeled these relationships at lags of 1 s to 10 s, in order to evaluate the optimal latency for estimating dynamic RSA effects. The IBI (t) on RSA (t-n) regression parameter was extracted from individual models as an operationalization of the regulatory effect of RSA on IBI-referred to as dynamic RSA (dRSA). Dynamic RSA positively correlated with standard averages of heart rate and negatively correlated with standard averages of RSA. We propose that dRSA reflects the active downregulation of heart period by the parasympathetic nervous system and thus represents a novel metric that provides incremental validity in the measurement of autonomic cardiac control-specifically, a method by which parasympathetic regulatory effects can be measured in process. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Sensor network based solar forecasting using a local vector autoregressive ridge framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, J.; Yoo, S.; Heiser, J.

2016-04-04

The significant improvements and falling costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology make solar energy a promising resource, yet the cloud induced variability of surface solar irradiance inhibits its effective use in grid-tied PV generation. Short-term irradiance forecasting, especially on the minute scale, is critically important for grid system stability and auxiliary power source management. Compared to the trending sky imaging devices, irradiance sensors are inexpensive and easy to deploy but related forecasting methods have not been well researched. The prominent challenge of applying classic time series models on a network of irradiance sensors is to address their varying spatio-temporal correlations duemore » to local changes in cloud conditions. We propose a local vector autoregressive framework with ridge regularization to forecast irradiance without explicitly determining the wind field or cloud movement. By using local training data, our learned forecast model is adaptive to local cloud conditions and by using regularization, we overcome the risk of overfitting from the limited training data. Our systematic experimental results showed an average of 19.7% RMSE and 20.2% MAE improvement over the benchmark Persistent Model for 1-5 minute forecasts on a comprehensive 25-day dataset.« less

Hybrid wavelet-support vector machine approach for modelling rainfall-runoff process.

PubMed

Komasi, Mehdi; Sharghi, Soroush

2016-01-01

Because of the importance of water resources management, the need for accurate modeling of the rainfall-runoff process has rapidly grown in the past decades. Recently, the support vector machine (SVM) approach has been used by hydrologists for rainfall-runoff modeling and the other fields of hydrology. Similar to the other artificial intelligence models, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system, the SVM model is based on the autoregressive properties. In this paper, the wavelet analysis was linked to the SVM model concept for modeling the rainfall-runoff process of Aghchai and Eel River watersheds. In this way, the main time series of two variables, rainfall and runoff, were decomposed to multiple frequent time series by wavelet theory; then, these time series were imposed as input data on the SVM model in order to predict the runoff discharge one day ahead. The obtained results show that the wavelet SVM model can predict both short- and long-term runoff discharges by considering the seasonality effects. Also, the proposed hybrid model is relatively more appropriate than classical autoregressive ones such as ANN and SVM because it uses the multi-scale time series of rainfall and runoff data in the modeling process.

Conventional and advanced time series estimation: application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2011-02-01

Time series analysis has seen limited application in the biomedical Literature. The utility of conventional and advanced time series estimators was explored for intensive care unit (ICU) outcome series. Monthly mean time series, 1993-2006, for hospital mortality, severity-of-illness score (APACHE III), ventilation fraction and patient type (medical and surgical), were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Analyses encompassed geographical seasonal mortality patterns, series structural time changes, mortality series volatility using autoregressive moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models in which predicted variances are updated adaptively, and bivariate and multivariate (vector error correction models) cointegrating relationships between series. The mortality series exhibited marked seasonality, declining mortality trend and substantial autocorrelation beyond 24 lags. Mortality increased in winter months (July-August); the medical series featured annual cycling, whereas the surgical demonstrated long and short (3-4 months) cycling. Series structural breaks were apparent in January 1995 and December 2002. The covariance stationary first-differenced mortality series was consistent with a seasonal autoregressive moving average process; the observed conditional-variance volatility (1993-1995) and residual Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects entailed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, preferred by information criterion and mean model forecast performance. Bivariate cointegration, indicating long-term equilibrium relationships, was established between mortality and severity-of-illness scores at the database level and for categories of ICUs. Multivariate cointegration was demonstrated for {log APACHE III score, log ICU length of stay, ICU mortality and ventilation fraction}. A system approach to understanding series time-dependence may be established using conventional and advanced econometric time series estimators. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The relationship between carbon dioxide and agriculture in Ghana: a comparison of VECM and ARDL model.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-06-01

In this paper, the relationship between carbon dioxide and agriculture in Ghana was investigated by comparing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. Ten study variables spanning from 1961 to 2012 were employed from the Food Agricultural Organization. Results from the study show that carbon dioxide emissions affect the percentage annual change of agricultural area, coarse grain production, cocoa bean production, fruit production, vegetable production, and the total livestock per hectare of the agricultural area. The vector error correction model and the autoregressive distributed lag model show evidence of a causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and agriculture; however, the relationship decreases periodically which may die over-time. All the endogenous variables except total primary vegetable production lead to carbon dioxide emissions, which may be due to poor agricultural practices to meet the growing food demand in Ghana. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test shows evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the percentage annual change of agricultural area, cocoa bean production, total livestock per hectare of agricultural area, total pulses production, total primary vegetable production, and carbon dioxide emissions. It is important to end hunger and ensure people have access to safe and nutritious food, especially the poor, orphans, pregnant women, and children under-5 years in order to reduce maternal and infant mortalities. Nevertheless, it is also important that the Government of Ghana institutes agricultural policies that focus on promoting a sustainable agriculture using environmental friendly agricultural practices. The study recommends an integration of climate change measures into Ghana's national strategies, policies and planning in order to strengthen the country's effort to achieving a sustainable environment.

A fusion of minicircle DNA and nanoparticle delivery technologies facilitates therapeutic genetic engineering of autologous canine olfactory mucosal cells.

PubMed

Delaney, Alexander M; Adams, Christopher F; Fernandes, Alinda R; Al-Shakli, Arwa F; Sen, Jon; Carwardine, Darren R; Granger, Nicolas; Chari, Divya M

2017-06-29

Olfactory ensheathing cells (OECs) promote axonal regeneration and improve locomotor function when transplanted into the injured spinal cord. A recent clinical trial demonstrated improved motor function in domestic dogs with spinal injury following autologous OEC transplantation. Their utility in canines offers promise for human translation, as dogs are comparable to humans in terms of clinical management and genetic/environmental variation. Moreover, the autologous, minimally invasive derivation of OECs makes them viable for human spinal injury investigation. Genetic engineering of transplant populations may augment their therapeutic potential, but relies heavily on viral methods which have several drawbacks for clinical translation. We present here the first proof that magnetic particles deployed with applied magnetic fields and advanced DNA minicircle vectors can safely bioengineer OECs to secrete a key neurotrophic factor, with an efficiency approaching that of viral vectors. We suggest that our alternative approach offers high translational potential for the delivery of augmented clinical cell therapies.

Comparison of six methods for the detection of causality in a bivariate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krakovská, Anna; Jakubík, Jozef; Chvosteková, Martina; Coufal, David; Jajcay, Nikola; Paluš, Milan

2018-04-01

In this comparative study, six causality detection methods were compared, namely, the Granger vector autoregressive test, the extended Granger test, the kernel version of the Granger test, the conditional mutual information (transfer entropy), the evaluation of cross mappings between state spaces, and an assessment of predictability improvement due to the use of mixed predictions. Seven test data sets were analyzed: linear coupling of autoregressive models, a unidirectional connection of two Hénon systems, a unidirectional connection of chaotic systems of Rössler and Lorenz type and of two different Rössler systems, an example of bidirectionally connected two-species systems, a fishery model as an example of two correlated observables without a causal relationship, and an example of mediated causality. We tested not only 20 000 points long clean time series but also noisy and short variants of the data. The standard and the extended Granger tests worked only for the autoregressive models. The remaining methods were more successful with the more complex test examples, although they differed considerably in their capability to reveal the presence and the direction of coupling and to distinguish causality from mere correlation.

Impact of global financial crisis on precious metals returns: An application of ARCH and GARCH methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Abdullah, Nurul Ain; Abdul Karim, Samsul Ariffin

2013-04-01

This paper is focusing on seeing the resilient of precious metals returns in facing the global financial crisis and provides a new guide for the investors before making investment decisions on precious metals. Four types of precious metals returns which are the variables selected in this study. The precious metals are gold, silver, bronze and platinum. All the variables are transferred to natural logarithm (ln). Daily data over the period 2 January 1995 to 30 December 2011 is used. Unit root tests that involve Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests have been employed in determining the stationarity of the variables. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methods have been applied in measuring the impact of global financial crisis on precious metals returns. The result shows that investing in platinum is less risky compared to the other precious metals because it is not influence by the crisis period.

Modeling Nonstationary Emotion Dynamics in Dyads using a Time-Varying Vector-Autoregressive Model.

PubMed

Bringmann, Laura F; Ferrer, Emilio; Hamaker, Ellen L; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

2018-01-01

Emotion dynamics are likely to arise in an interpersonal context. Standard methods to study emotions in interpersonal interaction are limited because stationarity is assumed. This means that the dynamics, for example, time-lagged relations, are invariant across time periods. However, this is generally an unrealistic assumption. Whether caused by an external (e.g., divorce) or an internal (e.g., rumination) event, emotion dynamics are prone to change. The semi-parametric time-varying vector-autoregressive (TV-VAR) model is based on well-studied generalized additive models, implemented in the software R. The TV-VAR can explicitly model changes in temporal dependency without pre-existing knowledge about the nature of change. A simulation study is presented, showing that the TV-VAR model is superior to the standard time-invariant VAR model when the dynamics change over time. The TV-VAR model is applied to empirical data on daily feelings of positive affect (PA) from a single couple. Our analyses indicate reliable changes in the male's emotion dynamics over time, but not in the female's-which were not predicted by her own affect or that of her partner. This application illustrates the usefulness of using a TV-VAR model to detect changes in the dynamics in a system.

Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

PubMed Central

Alwee, Razana; Hj Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam; Sallehuddin, Roselina

2013-01-01

Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models. PMID:23766729

Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models.

PubMed

Beltz, Adriene M; Molenaar, Peter C M

2016-01-01

Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. However, little is known about the uniqueness of uSEM results. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate whether multiple solutions result from uSEM analysis and, if so, to demonstrate ways to select an optimal solution. This was accomplished with two simulated data sets, an empirical data set concerning children's dyadic play, and modifications to the group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) program, which implements uSEMs with group- and individual-level relations in a data-driven manner. Results revealed multiple solutions when there were large contemporaneous relations among variables. Results also verified several ways to select the correct solution when the complete solution set was generated, such as the use of cross-validation, maximum standardized residuals, and information criteria. This work has immediate and direct implications for the analysis of time series data and for the inferences drawn from those data concerning human behavior.

Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting

PubMed Central

Aydin, Alev Dilek; Caliskan Cavdar, Seyma

2015-01-01

The ANN method has been applied by means of multilayered feedforward neural networks (MLFNs) by using different macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate of USD/TRY, gold prices, and the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index based on monthly data over the period of January 2000 and September 2014 for Turkey. Vector autoregressive (VAR) method has also been applied with the same variables for the same period of time. In this study, different from other studies conducted up to the present, ENCOG machine learning framework has been used along with JAVA programming language in order to constitute the ANN. The training of network has been done by resilient propagation method. The ex post and ex ante estimates obtained by the ANN method have been compared with the results obtained by the econometric forecasting method of VAR. Strikingly, our findings based on the ANN method reveal that there is a possibility of financial distress or a financial crisis in Turkey starting from October 2017. The results which were obtained with the method of VAR also support the results of ANN method. Additionally, our results indicate that the ANN approach has more superior prediction performance than the VAR method. PMID:26550010

Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

PubMed

Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

2013-01-01

Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting.

PubMed

Aydin, Alev Dilek; Caliskan Cavdar, Seyma

2015-01-01

The ANN method has been applied by means of multilayered feedforward neural networks (MLFNs) by using different macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate of USD/TRY, gold prices, and the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index based on monthly data over the period of January 2000 and September 2014 for Turkey. Vector autoregressive (VAR) method has also been applied with the same variables for the same period of time. In this study, different from other studies conducted up to the present, ENCOG machine learning framework has been used along with JAVA programming language in order to constitute the ANN. The training of network has been done by resilient propagation method. The ex post and ex ante estimates obtained by the ANN method have been compared with the results obtained by the econometric forecasting method of VAR. Strikingly, our findings based on the ANN method reveal that there is a possibility of financial distress or a financial crisis in Turkey starting from October 2017. The results which were obtained with the method of VAR also support the results of ANN method. Additionally, our results indicate that the ANN approach has more superior prediction performance than the VAR method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeung, Yu-Hong; Pothen, Alex; Halappanavar, Mahantesh

We present an augmented matrix approach to update the solution to a linear system of equations when the coefficient matrix is modified by a few elements within a principal submatrix. This problem arises in the dynamic security analysis of a power grid, where operators need to performmore » $N-x$ contingency analysis, i.e., determine the state of the system when up to $x$ links from $N$ fail. Our algorithms augment the coefficient matrix to account for the changes in it, and then compute the solution to the augmented system without refactoring the modified matrix. We provide two algorithms, a direct method, and a hybrid direct-iterative method for solving the augmented system. We also exploit the sparsity of the matrices and vectors to accelerate the overall computation. Our algorithms are compared on three power grids with PARDISO, a parallel direct solver, and CHOLMOD, a direct solver with the ability to modify the Cholesky factors of the coefficient matrix. We show that our augmented algorithms outperform PARDISO (by two orders of magnitude), and CHOLMOD (by a factor of up to 5). Further, our algorithms scale better than CHOLMOD as the number of elements updated increases. The solutions are computed with high accuracy. Our algorithms are capable of computing $N-x$ contingency analysis on a $778K$ bus grid, updating a solution with $x=20$ elements in $$1.6 \\times 10^{-2}$$ seconds on an Intel Xeon processor.« less

At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study.

PubMed

Hamaker, E L; Asparouhov, T; Brose, A; Schmiedek, F; Muthén, B

2018-04-06

With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent-but mostly unresolved-issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.

Detection and classification of subject-generated artifacts in EEG signals using autoregressive models.

PubMed

Lawhern, Vernon; Hairston, W David; McDowell, Kaleb; Westerfield, Marissa; Robbins, Kay

2012-07-15

We examine the problem of accurate detection and classification of artifacts in continuous EEG recordings. Manual identification of artifacts, by means of an expert or panel of experts, can be tedious, time-consuming and infeasible for large datasets. We use autoregressive (AR) models for feature extraction and characterization of EEG signals containing several kinds of subject-generated artifacts. AR model parameters are scale-invariant features that can be used to develop models of artifacts across a population. We use a support vector machine (SVM) classifier to discriminate among artifact conditions using the AR model parameters as features. Results indicate reliable classification among several different artifact conditions across subjects (approximately 94%). These results suggest that AR modeling can be a useful tool for discriminating among artifact signals both within and across individuals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does health promote economic growth? Portuguese case study: from dictatorship to full democracy.

PubMed

Morgado, Sónia Maria Aniceto

2014-07-01

This paper revisits the debate on health and economic growth (Deaton in J Econ Lit 51:113-158, 2003) focusing on the Portuguese case by testing the relationship between growth and health. We test Portuguese insights, using time series data from 1960 to 2005, taking into account different variables (life expectancy, labour, capital, infant mortality) and considering the years that included major events on the political scene, such as the dictatorship and a closed economy (1960-1974), a revolution (1974) and full democracy and an open economy (1975-2005), factors that influence major economic, cultural, social and politic indicators. Therefore the analysis is carried out adopting Lucas' (J Monet Econ 22(1):3-42, 1988) endogenous growth model that considers human capital as one factor of production, it adopts a VAR (vector autoregressive) model to test the causality between growth and health. Estimates based on the VAR seem to confirm that economic growth influences the health process, but health does not promote growth, during the period under study.

Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-01

30, No. 5, pp. 429–443. Enders, W., Sandler, T. (1993). “The Effectiveness of Anti-Terrorism Policies: Vector Autoregression Intervention Analysis ...occasional paper series . RAND occasional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research...United States safe? Are better means available for evaluating what may work or not and why? This series is designed to focus on a small set of

A two-model hydrologic ensemble prediction of hydrograph: case study from the upper Nysa Klodzka river basin (SW Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, Tomasz; Mizinski, Bartlomiej

2016-04-01

The HydroProg system has been elaborated in frame of the research project no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland and is steadily producing multimodel ensemble predictions of hydrograph in real time. Although there are six ensemble members available at present, the longest record of predictions and their statistics is available for two data-based models (uni- and multivariate autoregressive models). Thus, we consider 3-hour predictions of water levels, with lead times ranging from 15 to 180 minutes, computed every 15 minutes since August 2013 for the Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland) using the two approaches and their two-model ensemble. Since the launch of the HydroProg system there have been 12 high flow episodes, and the objective of this work is to present the performance of the two-model ensemble in the process of forecasting these events. For a sake of brevity, we limit our investigation to a single gauge located at the Nysa Klodzka river in the town of Klodzko, which is centrally located in the studied basin. We identified certain regular scenarios of how the models perform in predicting the high flows in Klodzko. At the initial phase of the high flow, well before the rising limb of hydrograph, the two-model ensemble is found to provide the most skilful prognoses of water levels. However, while forecasting the rising limb of hydrograph, either the two-model solution or the vector autoregressive model offers the best predictive performance. In addition, it is hypothesized that along with the development of the rising limb phase, the vector autoregression becomes the most skilful approach amongst the scrutinized ones. Our simple two-model exercise confirms that multimodel hydrologic ensemble predictions cannot be treated as universal solutions suitable for forecasting the entire high flow event, but their superior performance may hold only for certain phases of a high flow.

Why did bluetongue spread the way it did? Environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic wave in France.

PubMed

Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Crespin, Laurent; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Abrial, David; Ducrot, Christian

2012-01-01

Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007-2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread.

Why Did Bluetongue Spread the Way It Did? Environmental Factors Influencing the Velocity of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epizootic Wave in France

PubMed Central

Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Crespin, Laurent; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Abrial, David; Ducrot, Christian

2012-01-01

Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007–2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread. PMID:22916249

CMG-Augmented Control of a Hovering VTOL Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, K. B.; Moerder, D. D.

2007-01-01

This paper describes how Control Moment Gyroscopes (CMGs) can be used for stability augmentation to a thrust vectoring system for a generic Vertical Take-Off and Landing platform. The response characteristics of the platform which uses only thrust vectoring and a second configuration which includes a single-gimbal CMG array are simulated and compared for hovering flight while subject to severe air turbulence. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of a CMG array in its ability to significantly reduce the agility requirement on the thrust vectoring system. Albeit simplifying physical assumptions on a generic CMG configuration, the numerical results also suggest that reasonably sized CMGs will likely be sufficient for a small hovering vehicle.

A graphical vector autoregressive modelling approach to the analysis of electronic diary data

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In recent years, electronic diaries are increasingly used in medical research and practice to investigate patients' processes and fluctuations in symptoms over time. To model dynamic dependence structures and feedback mechanisms between symptom-relevant variables, a multivariate time series method has to be applied. Methods We propose to analyse the temporal interrelationships among the variables by a structural modelling approach based on graphical vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We give a comprehensive description of the underlying concepts and explain how the dependence structure can be recovered from electronic diary data by a search over suitable constrained (graphical) VAR models. Results The graphical VAR approach is applied to the electronic diary data of 35 obese patients with and without binge eating disorder (BED). The dynamic relationships for the two subgroups between eating behaviour, depression, anxiety and eating control are visualized in two path diagrams. Results show that the two subgroups of obese patients with and without BED are distinguishable by the temporal patterns which influence their respective eating behaviours. Conclusion The use of the graphical VAR approach for the analysis of electronic diary data leads to a deeper insight into patient's dynamics and dependence structures. An increasing use of this modelling approach could lead to a better understanding of complex psychological and physiological mechanisms in different areas of medical care and research. PMID:20359333

Multispectral code excited linear prediction coding and its application in magnetic resonance images.

PubMed

Hu, J H; Wang, Y; Cahill, P T

1997-01-01

This paper reports a multispectral code excited linear prediction (MCELP) method for the compression of multispectral images. Different linear prediction models and adaptation schemes have been compared. The method that uses a forward adaptive autoregressive (AR) model has been proven to achieve a good compromise between performance, complexity, and robustness. This approach is referred to as the MFCELP method. Given a set of multispectral images, the linear predictive coefficients are updated over nonoverlapping three-dimensional (3-D) macroblocks. Each macroblock is further divided into several 3-D micro-blocks, and the best excitation signal for each microblock is determined through an analysis-by-synthesis procedure. The MFCELP method has been applied to multispectral magnetic resonance (MR) images. To satisfy the high quality requirement for medical images, the error between the original image set and the synthesized one is further specified using a vector quantizer. This method has been applied to images from 26 clinical MR neuro studies (20 slices/study, three spectral bands/slice, 256x256 pixels/band, 12 b/pixel). The MFCELP method provides a significant visual improvement over the discrete cosine transform (DCT) based Joint Photographers Expert Group (JPEG) method, the wavelet transform based embedded zero-tree wavelet (EZW) coding method, and the vector tree (VT) coding method, as well as the multispectral segmented autoregressive moving average (MSARMA) method we developed previously.

Stochastic Parametrization for the Impact of Neglected Variability Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Olga; Hien, Steffen; Achatz, Ulrich; Horenko, Illia

2017-04-01

An efficient description of the gravity wave variability and the related spontaneous emission processes requires an empirical stochastic closure for the impact of neglected variability patterns (subgridscales or SGS). In particular, we focus on the analysis of the IGW emission within a tangent linear model which requires a stochastic SGS parameterization for taking the self interaction of the ageostrophic flow components into account. For this purpose, we identify the best SGS model in terms of exactness and simplicity by deploying a wide range of different data-driven model classes, including standard stationary regression models, autoregression and artificial neuronal networks models - as well as the family of nonstationary models like FEM-BV-VARX model class (Finite Element based vector autoregressive time series analysis with bounded variation of the model parameters). The models are used to investigate the main characteristics of the underlying dynamics and to explore the significant spatial and temporal neighbourhood dependencies. The best SGS model in terms of exactness and simplicity is obtained for the nonstationary FEM-BV-VARX setting, determining only direct spatial and temporal neighbourhood as significant - and allowing to drastically reduce the number of informations that are required for the optimal SGS. Additionally, the models are characterized by sets of vector- and matrix-valued parameters that must be inferred from big data sets provided by simulations - making it a task that can not be solved without deploying high-performance computing facilities (HPC).

The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2016-11-01

The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

Comparing lagged linear correlation, lagged regression, Granger causality, and vector autoregression for uncovering associations in EHR data.

PubMed

Levine, Matthew E; Albers, David J; Hripcsak, George

2016-01-01

Time series analysis methods have been shown to reveal clinical and biological associations in data collected in the electronic health record. We wish to develop reliable high-throughput methods for identifying adverse drug effects that are easy to implement and produce readily interpretable results. To move toward this goal, we used univariate and multivariate lagged regression models to investigate associations between twenty pairs of drug orders and laboratory measurements. Multivariate lagged regression models exhibited higher sensitivity and specificity than univariate lagged regression in the 20 examples, and incorporating autoregressive terms for labs and drugs produced more robust signals in cases of known associations among the 20 example pairings. Moreover, including inpatient admission terms in the model attenuated the signals for some cases of unlikely associations, demonstrating how multivariate lagged regression models' explicit handling of context-based variables can provide a simple way to probe for health-care processes that confound analyses of EHR data.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.; Valderrama, Anayansí; Saldaña, Azael

2014-01-01

Background Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission. Methodology and Findings We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases. Conclusion Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations. PMID:25275503

Optimal preview control for a linear continuous-time stochastic control system in finite-time horizon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiang; Liao, Fucheng; Tomizuka, Masayoshi

2017-01-01

This paper discusses the design of the optimal preview controller for a linear continuous-time stochastic control system in finite-time horizon, using the method of augmented error system. First, an assistant system is introduced for state shifting. Then, in order to overcome the difficulty of the state equation of the stochastic control system being unable to be differentiated because of Brownian motion, the integrator is introduced. Thus, the augmented error system which contains the integrator vector, control input, reference signal, error vector and state of the system is reconstructed. This leads to the tracking problem of the optimal preview control of the linear stochastic control system being transformed into the optimal output tracking problem of the augmented error system. With the method of dynamic programming in the theory of stochastic control, the optimal controller with previewable signals of the augmented error system being equal to the controller of the original system is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the controller.

Gaussian Process Autoregression for Simultaneous Proportional Multi-Modal Prosthetic Control With Natural Hand Kinematics.

PubMed

Xiloyannis, Michele; Gavriel, Constantinos; Thomik, Andreas A C; Faisal, A Aldo

2017-10-01

Matching the dexterity, versatility, and robustness of the human hand is still an unachieved goal in bionics, robotics, and neural engineering. A major limitation for hand prosthetics lies in the challenges of reliably decoding user intention from muscle signals when controlling complex robotic hands. Most of the commercially available prosthetic hands use muscle-related signals to decode a finite number of predefined motions and some offer proportional control of open/close movements of the whole hand. Here, in contrast, we aim to offer users flexible control of individual joints of their artificial hand. We propose a novel framework for decoding neural information that enables a user to independently control 11 joints of the hand in a continuous manner-much like we control our natural hands. Toward this end, we instructed six able-bodied subjects to perform everyday object manipulation tasks combining both dynamic, free movements (e.g., grasping) and isometric force tasks (e.g., squeezing). We recorded the electromyographic and mechanomyographic activities of five extrinsic muscles of the hand in the forearm, while simultaneously monitoring 11 joints of hand and fingers using a sensorized data glove that tracked the joints of the hand. Instead of learning just a direct mapping from current muscle activity to intended hand movement, we formulated a novel autoregressive approach that combines the context of previous hand movements with instantaneous muscle activity to predict future hand movements. Specifically, we evaluated a linear vector autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs and a novel Gaussian process ( ) autoregressive framework to learn the continuous mapping from hand joint dynamics and muscle activity to decode intended hand movement. Our approach achieves high levels of performance (RMSE of 8°/s and ). Crucially, we use a small set of sensors that allows us to control a larger set of independently actuated degrees of freedom of a hand. This novel undersensored control is enabled through the combination of nonlinear autoregressive continuous mapping between muscle activity and joint angles. The system evaluates the muscle signals in the context of previous natural hand movements. This enables us to resolve ambiguities in situations, where muscle signals alone cannot determine the correct action as we evaluate the muscle signals in their context of natural hand movements. autoregression is a particularly powerful approach which makes not only a prediction based on the context but also represents the associated uncertainty of its predictions, thus enabling the novel notion of risk-based control in neuroprosthetics. Our results suggest that autoregressive approaches with exogenous inputs lend themselves for natural, intuitive, and continuous control in neurotechnology, with the particular focus on prosthetic restoration of natural limb function, where high dexterity is required for complex movements.

Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C.; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian

2015-08-01

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs.

PubMed

Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian

2015-08-03

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

Learning investment indicators through data extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvořák, Marek

2017-07-01

Stock prices in the form of time series were analysed using single and multivariate statistical methods. After simple data preprocessing in the form of logarithmic differences, we augmented this single variate time series to a multivariate representation. This method makes use of sliding windows to calculate several dozen of new variables using simple statistic tools like first and second moments as well as more complicated statistic, like auto-regression coefficients and residual analysis, followed by an optional quadratic transformation that was further used for data extension. These were used as a explanatory variables in a regularized logistic LASSO regression which tried to estimate Buy-Sell Index (BSI) from real stock market data.

Time-series panel analysis (TSPA): multivariate modeling of temporal associations in psychotherapy process.

PubMed

Ramseyer, Fabian; Kupper, Zeno; Caspar, Franz; Znoj, Hansjörg; Tschacher, Wolfgang

2014-10-01

Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

PubMed

Biswas, Paritosh K; Islam, Md Zohorul; Debnath, Nitish C; Yamage, Mat

2014-01-01

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s) as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH) was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA) order at lag 1 month is considered.

Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suharsono, Agus; Aziza, Auliya; Pramesti, Wara

2017-12-01

Capital markets can be an indicator of the development of a country's economy. The presence of capital markets also encourages investors to trade; therefore investors need information and knowledge of which shares are better. One way of making decisions for short-term investments is the need for modeling to forecast stock prices in the period to come. Issue of stock market-stock integration ASEAN is very important. The problem is that ASEAN does not have much time to implement one market in the economy, so it would be very interesting if there is evidence whether the capital market in the ASEAN region, especially the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand deserve to be integrated or still segmented. Furthermore, it should also be known and proven What kind of integration is happening: what A capital market affects only the market Other capital, or a capital market only Influenced by other capital markets, or a Capital market as well as affecting as well Influenced by other capital markets in one ASEAN region. In this study, it will compare forecasting of Indonesian share price (IHSG) with neighboring countries (ASEAN) including developed and developing countries such as Malaysia (KLSE), Singapore (SGE), Thailand (SETI), Philippines (PSE) to find out which stock country the most superior and influential. These countries are the founders of ASEAN and share price index owners who have close relations with Indonesia in terms of trade, especially exports and imports. Stock price modeling in this research is using multivariate time series analysis that is VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Modeling). VAR and VECM models not only predict more than one variable but also can see the interrelations between variables with each other. If the assumption of white noise is not met in the VAR modeling, then the cause can be assumed that there is an outlier. With this modeling will be able to know the pattern of relationship or linkage of share prices of each country in ASEAN. The best modeling comparison result of the ASEAN stock price index is VAR.

Image Augmentation for Object Image Classification Based On Combination of Pre-Trained CNN and SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shima, Yoshihiro

2018-04-01

Neural networks are a powerful means of classifying object images. The proposed image category classification method for object images combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). A pre-trained CNN, called Alex-Net, is used as a pattern-feature extractor. Alex-Net is pre-trained for the large-scale object-image dataset ImageNet. Instead of training, Alex-Net, pre-trained for ImageNet is used. An SVM is used as trainable classifier. The feature vectors are passed to the SVM from Alex-Net. The STL-10 dataset are used as object images. The number of classes is ten. Training and test samples are clearly split. STL-10 object images are trained by the SVM with data augmentation. We use the pattern transformation method with the cosine function. We also apply some augmentation method such as rotation, skewing and elastic distortion. By using the cosine function, the original patterns were left-justified, right-justified, top-justified, or bottom-justified. Patterns were also center-justified and enlarged. Test error rate is decreased by 0.435 percentage points from 16.055% by augmentation with cosine transformation. Error rates are increased by other augmentation method such as rotation, skewing and elastic distortion, compared without augmentation. Number of augmented data is 30 times that of the original STL-10 5K training samples. Experimental test error rate for the test 8k STL-10 object images was 15.620%, which shows that image augmentation is effective for image category classification.

Vector autoregressive models: A Gini approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussard, Stéphane; Ndiaye, Oumar Hamady

2018-02-01

In this paper, it is proven that the usual VAR models may be performed in the Gini sense, that is, on a ℓ1 metric space. The Gini regression is robust to outliers. As a consequence, when data are contaminated by extreme values, we show that semi-parametric VAR-Gini regressions may be used to obtain robust estimators. The inference about the estimators is made with the ℓ1 norm. Also, impulse response functions and Gini decompositions for prevision errors are introduced. Finally, Granger's causality tests are properly derived based on U-statistics.

Vector Communication Curriculum: Moderate and Severe, Multiple Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baine, David

This CD-ROM disk contains a curriculum on vector communication for students with moderate and severe multiple disabilities. Section 1 discusses pragmatic communication, functional analysis of behavior, augmentative and alternative communication, including gestures and signs, use of pictures and pictographs, and low, medium, and high tech…

The effect of case management and vector-control interventions on space-time patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda.

PubMed

Ssempiira, Julius; Kissa, John; Nambuusi, Betty; Kyozira, Carol; Rutazaana, Damian; Mukooyo, Eddie; Opigo, Jimmy; Makumbi, Fredrick; Kasasa, Simon; Vounatsou, Penelope

2018-04-12

Electronic reporting of routine health facility data in Uganda began with the adoption of the District Health Information Software System version 2 (DHIS2) in 2011. This has improved health facility reporting and overall data quality. In this study, the effects of case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and vector control interventions on space-time patterns of disease incidence were determined using DHIS2 data reported during 2013-2016. Bayesian spatio-temporal negative binomial models were fitted on district-aggregated monthly malaria cases, reported by two age groups, defined by a cut-off age of 5 years. The effects of interventions were adjusted for socio-economic and climatic factors. Spatial and temporal correlations were taken into account by assuming a conditional autoregressive and a first-order autoregressive AR(1) process on district and monthly specific random effects, respectively. Fourier trigonometric functions were incorporated in the models to take into account seasonal fluctuations in malaria transmission. The temporal variation in incidence was similar in both age groups and depicted a steady decline up to February 2014, followed by an increase from March 2015 onwards. The trends were characterized by a strong bi-annual seasonal pattern with two peaks during May-July and September-December. Average monthly incidence in children < 5 years declined from 74.7 cases (95% CI 72.4-77.1) in 2013 to 49.4 (95% CI 42.9-55.8) per 1000 in 2015 and followed by an increase in 2016 of up to 51.3 (95% CI 42.9-55.8). In individuals ≥ 5 years, a decline in incidence from 2013 to 2015 was followed by an increase in 2016. A 100% increase in insecticide-treated nets (ITN) coverage was associated with a decline in incidence by 44% (95% BCI 28-59%). Similarly, a 100% increase in ACT coverage reduces incidence by 28% (95% BCI 11-45%) and 25% (95% BCI 20-28%) in children < 5 years and individuals ≥ 5 years, respectively. The ITN effect was not statistically important in older individuals. The space-time patterns of malaria incidence in children < 5 are similar to those of parasitaemia risk predicted from the malaria indicator survey of 2014-15. The decline in malaria incidence highlights the effectiveness of vector-control interventions and case management with ACT in Uganda. This calls for optimizing and sustaining interventions to achieve universal coverage and curb reverses in malaria decline.

Tumor Necrosis Factor α‐Gene Therapy for an Established Murine Melanoma Using RGB (Arg‐Gly‐Asp) Fiber‐mutant Adenovirus Vectors

PubMed Central

Okada, Yuka; Nakagawa, Shinsaku; Mizuguchi, Hiroyuki; Takahashi, Koichi; Mizuno, Nobuyasu; Fujita, Takuya; Yamamoto, Akira; Hayakawa, Takao; Mayumi, Tadanori

2002-01-01

Although adenovirus vectors (Ad) provide high‐level transduction efficacy to many cell types, extremely high doses of Ad are required for sufficient gene transduction into several tumors, including melanoma. Here, we demonstrated that the expression of coxsackie‐adenovirus receptor, a primitive Ad‐receptor, was very low in murine and human melanoma cells. We also found that fiber‐mutant Ad containing the Arg‐Gly‐Asp (RGD) sequence in the fiber knob remarkably augmented gene transduction efficacy in melanoma cells by targeting αv‐integrins. In addition, intratumoral injection of RGD fiber‐mutant Ad containing the tumor necrosis factor α gene (AdRGD‐TNFα) revealed dramatic anti‐tumor efficacy through hemolytic necrosis in an established murine B16 BL6 melanoma model. Ad‐RGD‐TNFα required one‐tenth the dosage of Ad‐TNFα to induce an equal therapeutic effect. These results suggest that αv‐integrin‐targeted Ad will be a very powerful tool for the advancement of melanoma gene therapy. PMID:11985794

Processing on weak electric signals by the autoregressive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Jinli; Zhao, Jiayin; Wang, Lanzhou; Li, Qiao

2008-10-01

A model of the autoregressive model of weak electric signals in two plants was set up for the first time. The result of the AR model to forecast 10 values of the weak electric signals is well. It will construct a standard set of the AR model coefficient of the plant electric signal and the environmental factor, and can be used as the preferences for the intelligent autocontrol system based on the adaptive characteristic of plants to achieve the energy saving on agricultural productions.

Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel

2016-01-01

Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.

The impact of media campaigns on smoking cessation activity: a structural vector autoregression analysis.

PubMed

Langley, Tessa E; McNeill, Ann; Lewis, Sarah; Szatkowski, Lisa; Quinn, Casey

2012-11-01

To evaluate the effect of tobacco control media campaigns and pharmaceutical company-funded advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) on smoking cessation activity. Multiple time series analysis using structural vector autoregression, January 2002-May 2010. England and Wales. Tobacco control campaign data from the Central Office of Information; commercial NRT campaign data; data on calls to the National Health Service (NHS) stop smoking helpline from the Department of Health; point-of-sale data on over-the-counter (OTC) sales of NRT; and prescribing data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a database of UK primary care records. Monthly calls to the NHS stop smoking helpline and monthly rates of OTC sales and prescribing of NRT. A 1% increase in tobacco control television ratings (TVRs), a standard measure of advertising exposure, was associated with a statistically significant 0.085% increase in calls in the same month (P = 0.007), and no statistically significant effect in subsequent months. Tobacco control TVRs were not associated with OTC NRT sales or prescribed NRT. NRT advertising TVRs had a significant effect on NRT sales which became non-significant in the seasonally adjusted model, and no significant effect on prescribing or calls. Tobacco control campaigns appear to be more effective at triggering quitting behaviour than pharmaceutical company NRT campaigns. Any effect of such campaigns on quitting behaviour seems to be restricted to the month of the campaign, suggesting that such campaigns need to be sustained over time. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

A Unified Estimation Framework for State-Related Changes in Effective Brain Connectivity.

PubMed

Samdin, S Balqis; Ting, Chee-Ming; Ombao, Hernando; Salleh, Sh-Hussain

2017-04-01

This paper addresses the critical problem of estimating time-evolving effective brain connectivity. Current approaches based on sliding window analysis or time-varying coefficient models do not simultaneously capture both slow and abrupt changes in causal interactions between different brain regions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a unified framework based on a switching vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Here, the dynamic connectivity regimes are uniquely characterized by distinct vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and allowed to switch between quasi-stationary brain states. The state evolution and the associated directed dependencies are defined by a Markov process and the SVAR parameters. We develop a three-stage estimation algorithm for the SVAR model: 1) feature extraction using time-varying VAR (TV-VAR) coefficients, 2) preliminary regime identification via clustering of the TV-VAR coefficients, 3) refined regime segmentation by Kalman smoothing and parameter estimation via expectation-maximization algorithm under a state-space formulation, using initial estimates from the previous two stages. The proposed framework is adaptive to state-related changes and gives reliable estimates of effective connectivity. Simulation results show that our method provides accurate regime change-point detection and connectivity estimates. In real applications to brain signals, the approach was able to capture directed connectivity state changes in functional magnetic resonance imaging data linked with changes in stimulus conditions, and in epileptic electroencephalograms, differentiating ictal from nonictal periods. The proposed framework accurately identifies state-dependent changes in brain network and provides estimates of connectivity strength and directionality. The proposed approach is useful in neuroscience studies that investigate the dynamics of underlying brain states.

Analysis of Factors Influencing PM2.5 in Beijing: A Microcosmic and Dynamic Perspective for Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yani; Wang, Jun; Tao, Guiping

2017-12-01

Haze pollution has become a hot issue concerned with the process of modernization and one serious problem requiring urgent solution, especially in Beijing. PM2.5 is the main reason causing haze and its harm. Although there has been research centering on factors affecting PM2.5, little attention has been devoted to the microcosmic and dynamic effects on it. Vector auto-regression (VAR) mode is applied in this study to explore the interaction between PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO and NO2. Results of Granger causality tests tell that there exists causal relationship between PM10, SO2, CO, NO2 and PM2.5. Impulse response functions (IRFs) show that the response of PM2.5 to a shock in CO is positive and large in the short period, while the reaction of PM2.5 to a shock in SO2 increases over time. Meanwhile, variance decomposition indicate that PM2.5 is more closely related to CO in the short term while SO2’ influence accounts for a higher proportion in the long run. The findings provide a novel perspective to analyze the factors influencing PM2.5 dynamically and contribute to a better understanding of haze and its relationship with sustainable development.

Stochastic-Constraints Method in Nonstationary Hot-Clutter Cancellation Part I: Fundamentals and Supervised Training Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

any of the P interfering sources, and Hkt i (1) (P)] T is defined below. The P-variate vector = t kt , • t J consists of complex waveforms radiated by...line. More precisely, the (i, j ) t element of the matrix Hke is a complex 4-4 coefficient which is practically constant over the kth PRI, and is a...multivariate auto-regressive (AR) model of order n: Ykt + Z Bj Yk- j , t = tkt (25) j =l In the above equation, Bj are the M-variate matrices which are the

Kernel canonical-correlation Granger causality for multiple time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Guorong; Duan, Xujun; Liao, Wei; Gao, Qing; Chen, Huafu

2011-04-01

Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential model estimation problems. However, it is limited to the linear case. Here, we extend the framework of canonical correlation to include the estimation of multivariate nonlinear Granger causality for drawing inference about directed interaction. Its feasibility and effectiveness are verified on simulated data.

A novel rotational matrix and translation vector algorithm: geometric accuracy for augmented reality in oral and maxillofacial surgeries.

PubMed

Murugesan, Yahini Prabha; Alsadoon, Abeer; Manoranjan, Paul; Prasad, P W C

2018-06-01

Augmented reality-based surgeries have not been successfully implemented in oral and maxillofacial areas due to limitations in geometric accuracy and image registration. This paper aims to improve the accuracy and depth perception of the augmented video. The proposed system consists of a rotational matrix and translation vector algorithm to reduce the geometric error and improve the depth perception by including 2 stereo cameras and a translucent mirror in the operating room. The results on the mandible/maxilla area show that the new algorithm improves the video accuracy by 0.30-0.40 mm (in terms of overlay error) and the processing rate to 10-13 frames/s compared to 7-10 frames/s in existing systems. The depth perception increased by 90-100 mm. The proposed system concentrates on reducing the geometric error. Thus, this study provides an acceptable range of accuracy with a shorter operating time, which provides surgeons with a smooth surgical flow. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Stimulus-Locked Vector Autoregressive Model for Slow Event-Related fMRI Designs

PubMed Central

Siegle, Greg

2009-01-01

Summary Neuroscientists have become increasingly interested in exploring dynamic relationships among brain regions. Such a relationship, when directed from one region toward another, is denoted by “effective connectivity.” An fMRI experimental paradigm which is well-suited for examination of effective connectivity is the slow event-related design. This design presents stimuli at sufficient temporal spacing for determining within-trial trajectories of BOLD activation, allowing for the analysis of stimulus-locked temporal covariation of brain responses in multiple regions. This may be especially important for emotional stimuli processing, which can evolve over the course of several seconds, if not longer. However, while several methods have been devised for determining fMRI effective connectivity, few are adapted to event-related designs, which include non-stationary BOLD responses and multiple levels of nesting. We propose a model tailored for exploring effective connectivity of multiple brain regions in event-related fMRI designs - a semi-parametric adaptation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models, termed “stimulus-locked VAR” (SloVAR). Connectivity coefficients vary as a function of time relative to stimulus onset, are regularized via basis expansions, and vary randomly across subjects. SloVAR obtains flexible, data-driven estimates of effective connectivity and hence is useful for building connectivity models when prior information on dynamic regional relationships is sparse. Indices derived from the coefficient estimates can also be used to relate effective connectivity estimates to behavioral or clinical measures. We demonstrate the SloVAR model on a sample of clinically depressed and normal controls, showing that early but not late cortico-amygdala connectivity appears crucial to emotional control and early but not late cortico-cortico connectivity predicts depression severity in the depressed group, relationships that would have been missed in a more traditional VAR analysis. PMID:19236927

Is First-Order Vector Autoregressive Model Optimal for fMRI Data?

PubMed

Ting, Chee-Ming; Seghouane, Abd-Krim; Khalid, Muhammad Usman; Salleh, Sh-Hussain

2015-09-01

We consider the problem of selecting the optimal orders of vector autoregressive (VAR) models for fMRI data. Many previous studies used model order of one and ignored that it may vary considerably across data sets depending on different data dimensions, subjects, tasks, and experimental designs. In addition, the classical information criteria (IC) used (e.g., the Akaike IC (AIC)) are biased and inappropriate for the high-dimensional fMRI data typically with a small sample size. We examine the mixed results on the optimal VAR orders for fMRI, especially the validity of the order-one hypothesis, by a comprehensive evaluation using different model selection criteria over three typical data types--a resting state, an event-related design, and a block design data set--with varying time series dimensions obtained from distinct functional brain networks. We use a more balanced criterion, Kullback's IC (KIC) based on Kullback's symmetric divergence combining two directed divergences. We also consider the bias-corrected versions (AICc and KICc) to improve VAR model selection in small samples. Simulation results show better small-sample selection performance of the proposed criteria over the classical ones. Both bias-corrected ICs provide more accurate and consistent model order choices than their biased counterparts, which suffer from overfitting, with KICc performing the best. Results on real data show that orders greater than one were selected by all criteria across all data sets for the small to moderate dimensions, particularly from small, specific networks such as the resting-state default mode network and the task-related motor networks, whereas low orders close to one but not necessarily one were chosen for the large dimensions of full-brain networks.

Detection of tripping gait patterns in the elderly using autoregressive features and support vector machines.

PubMed

Lai, Daniel T H; Begg, Rezaul K; Taylor, Simon; Palaniswami, Marimuthu

2008-01-01

Elderly tripping falls cost billions annually in medical funds and result in high mortality rates often perpetrated by pulmonary embolism (internal bleeding) and infected fractures that do not heal well. In this paper, we propose an intelligent gait detection system (AR-SVM) for screening elderly individuals at risk of suffering tripping falls. The motivation of this system is to provide early detection of elderly gait reminiscent of tripping characteristics so that preventive measures could be administered. Our system is composed of two stages, a predictor model estimated by an autoregressive (AR) process and a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The system input is a digital signal constructed from consecutive measurements of minimum toe clearance (MTC) representative of steady-state walking. The AR-SVM system was tested on 23 individuals (13 healthy and 10 having suffered at least one tripping fall in the past year) who each completed a minimum of 10 min of walking on a treadmill at a self-selected pace. In the first stage, a fourth order AR model required at least 64 MTC values to correctly detect all fallers and non-fallers. Detection was further improved to less than 1 min of walking when the model coefficients were used as input features to the SVM classifier. The system achieved a detection accuracy of 95.65% with the leave one out method using only 16 MTC samples, but was reduced to 69.57% when eight MTC samples were used. These results demonstrate a fast and efficient system requiring a small number of strides and only MTC measurements for accurate detection of tripping gait characteristics.

Fuzzy neural network technique for system state forecasting.

PubMed

Li, Dezhi; Wang, Wilson; Ismail, Fathy

2013-10-01

In many system state forecasting applications, the prediction is performed based on multiple datasets, each corresponding to a distinct system condition. The traditional methods dealing with multiple datasets (e.g., vector autoregressive moving average models and neural networks) have some shortcomings, such as limited modeling capability and opaque reasoning operations. To tackle these problems, a novel fuzzy neural network (FNN) is proposed in this paper to effectively extract information from multiple datasets, so as to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed predictor consists of both autoregressive (AR) nodes modeling and nonlinear nodes modeling; AR models/nodes are used to capture the linear correlation of the datasets, and the nonlinear correlation of the datasets are modeled with nonlinear neuron nodes. A novel particle swarm technique [i.e., Laplace particle swarm (LPS) method] is proposed to facilitate parameters estimation of the predictor and improve modeling accuracy. The effectiveness of the developed FNN predictor and the associated LPS method is verified by a series of tests related to Mackey-Glass data forecast, exchange rate data prediction, and gear system prognosis. Test results show that the developed FNN predictor and the LPS method can capture the dynamics of multiple datasets effectively and track system characteristics accurately.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

PubMed

Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

PubMed Central

Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

Non-linear models for the detection of impaired cerebral blood flow autoregulation.

PubMed

Chacón, Max; Jara, José Luis; Miranda, Rodrigo; Katsogridakis, Emmanuel; Panerai, Ronney B

2018-01-01

The ability to discriminate between normal and impaired dynamic cerebral autoregulation (CA), based on measurements of spontaneous fluctuations in arterial blood pressure (BP) and cerebral blood flow (CBF), has considerable clinical relevance. We studied 45 normal subjects at rest and under hypercapnia induced by breathing a mixture of carbon dioxide and air. Non-linear models with BP as input and CBF velocity (CBFV) as output, were implemented with support vector machines (SVM) using separate recordings for learning and validation. Dynamic SVM implementations used either moving average or autoregressive structures. The efficiency of dynamic CA was estimated from the model's derived CBFV response to a step change in BP as an autoregulation index for both linear and non-linear models. Non-linear models with recurrences (autoregressive) showed the best results, with CA indexes of 5.9 ± 1.5 in normocapnia, and 2.5 ± 1.2 for hypercapnia with an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.955. The high performance achieved by non-linear SVM models to detect deterioration of dynamic CA should encourage further assessment of its applicability to clinical conditions where CA might be impaired.

Non-linear models for the detection of impaired cerebral blood flow autoregulation

PubMed Central

Miranda, Rodrigo; Katsogridakis, Emmanuel

2018-01-01

The ability to discriminate between normal and impaired dynamic cerebral autoregulation (CA), based on measurements of spontaneous fluctuations in arterial blood pressure (BP) and cerebral blood flow (CBF), has considerable clinical relevance. We studied 45 normal subjects at rest and under hypercapnia induced by breathing a mixture of carbon dioxide and air. Non-linear models with BP as input and CBF velocity (CBFV) as output, were implemented with support vector machines (SVM) using separate recordings for learning and validation. Dynamic SVM implementations used either moving average or autoregressive structures. The efficiency of dynamic CA was estimated from the model’s derived CBFV response to a step change in BP as an autoregulation index for both linear and non-linear models. Non-linear models with recurrences (autoregressive) showed the best results, with CA indexes of 5.9 ± 1.5 in normocapnia, and 2.5 ± 1.2 for hypercapnia with an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.955. The high performance achieved by non-linear SVM models to detect deterioration of dynamic CA should encourage further assessment of its applicability to clinical conditions where CA might be impaired. PMID:29381724

Detection of shallow buried objects using an autoregressive model on the ground penetrating radar signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabelek, Daniel P.; Ho, K. C.

2013-06-01

The detection of shallow buried low-metal content objects using ground penetrating radar (GPR) is a challenging task. This is because these targets are right underneath the ground and the ground bounce reflection interferes with their detections. They do not create distinctive hyperbolic signatures as required by most existing GPR detection algorithms due to their special geometric shapes and low metal content. This paper proposes the use of the Autoregressive (AR) modeling method for the detection of these targets. We fit an A-scan of the GPR data to an AR model. It is found that the fitting error will be small when such a target is present and large when it is absent. The ratio of the energy in an Ascan before and after AR model fitting is used as the confidence value for detection. We also apply AR model fitting over scans and utilize the fitting residual energies over several scans to form a feature vector for improving the detections. Using the data collected from a government test site, the proposed method can improve the detection of this kind of targets by 30% compared to the pre-screener, at a false alarm rate of 0.002/m2.

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grass, David; Jasinski, Michael F.; Govere, John

2003-01-01

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

The Effects of Autocorrelation on the Curve-of-Factors Growth Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Daniel L.; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Pituch, Keenan A.

2011-01-01

This simulation study examined the performance of the curve-of-factors model (COFM) when autocorrelation and growth processes were present in the first-level factor structure. In addition to the standard curve-of factors growth model, 2 new models were examined: one COFM that included a first-order autoregressive autocorrelation parameter, and a…

Augmentation method of XPNAV in Mars orbit based on Phobos and Deimos observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Jiao; Luping, Xu; Zhang, Hua; Cong, Li

2016-11-01

Autonomous navigation for Mars probe spacecraft is required to reduce the operation costs and enhance the navigation performance in the future. X-ray pulsar-based navigation (XPNAV) is a potential candidate to meet this requirement. This paper addresses the use of the Mars' natural satellites to improve XPNAV for Mars probe spacecraft. Two observation variables of the field angle and natural satellites' direction vectors of Mars are added into the XPNAV positioning system. The measurement model of field angle and direction vectors is formulated by processing satellite image of Mars obtained from optical camera. This measurement model is integrated into the spacecraft orbit dynamics to build the filter model. In order to estimate position and velocity error of the spacecraft and reduce the impact of the system noise on navigation precision, an adaptive divided difference filter (ADDF) is applied. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the performance of ADDF is better than Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) DDF and EKF. In view of the invisibility of Mars' natural satellites in some cases, a visibility condition analysis is given and the augmented XPNAV in a different visibility condition is numerically simulated. The simulation results show that the navigation precision is evidently improved by using the augmented XPNAV based on the field angle and natural satellites' direction vectors of Mars in a comparison with the conventional XPNAV.

Comparisons of Four Methods for Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Nesselroade, John R.

2008-01-01

Four methods for estimating a dynamic factor model, the direct autoregressive factor score (DAFS) model, are evaluated and compared. The first method estimates the DAFS model using a Kalman filter algorithm based on its state space model representation. The second one employs the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the construction of a…

Profiling physicochemical and planktonic features from discretely/continuously sampled surface water.

PubMed

Oita, Azusa; Tsuboi, Yuuri; Date, Yasuhiro; Oshima, Takahiro; Sakata, Kenji; Yokoyama, Akiko; Moriya, Shigeharu; Kikuchi, Jun

2018-04-24

There is an increasing need for assessing aquatic ecosystems that are globally endangered. Since aquatic ecosystems are complex, integrated consideration of multiple factors utilizing omics technologies can help us better understand aquatic ecosystems. An integrated strategy linking three analytical (machine learning, factor mapping, and forecast-error-variance decomposition) approaches for extracting the features of surface water from datasets comprising ions, metabolites, and microorganisms is proposed herein. The three developed approaches can be employed for diverse datasets of sample sizes and experimentally analyzed factors. The three approaches are applied to explore the features of bay water surrounding Odaiba, Tokyo, Japan, as a case study. Firstly, the machine learning approach separated 681 surface water samples within Japan into three clusters, categorizing Odaiba water into seawater with relatively low inorganic ions, including Mg, Ba, and B. Secondly, the factor mapping approach illustrated Odaiba water samples from the summer as rich in multiple amino acids and some other metabolites and poor in inorganic ions relative to other seasons based on their seasonal dynamics. Finally, forecast-error-variance decomposition using vector autoregressive models indicated that a type of microalgae (Raphidophyceae) grows in close correlation with alanine, succinic acid, and valine on filters and with isobutyric acid and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid in filtrate, Ba, and average wind speed. Our integrated strategy can be used to examine many biological, chemical, and environmental physical factors to analyze surface water. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO2 prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Rita; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, Maria Joana

2014-11-01

We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (electricity, gas and coal), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particular time horizons. Our empirical approach has the potential to identify relations getting stronger and then disappearing over specific time intervals and frequencies. We are able to examine the coherency of these variables and lead-lag relations at different frequencies for the time periods in focus.

An adenovirus vectored mucosal adjuvant augments protection of mice immunized intranasally with an adenovirus-vectored foot-and-mouth disease virus subunit vaccine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly contagious pathogen that causes severe morbidity and economic losses to the livestock industry in many countries. The oral and respiratory mucosae are the main ports of entry of FMDV, so the stimulation of local immunity in these tissues may help preve...

Application of structured support vector machine backpropagation to a convolutional neural network for human pose estimation.

PubMed

Witoonchart, Peerajak; Chongstitvatana, Prabhas

2017-08-01

In this study, for the first time, we show how to formulate a structured support vector machine (SSVM) as two layers in a convolutional neural network, where the top layer is a loss augmented inference layer and the bottom layer is the normal convolutional layer. We show that a deformable part model can be learned with the proposed structured SVM neural network by backpropagating the error of the deformable part model to the convolutional neural network. The forward propagation calculates the loss augmented inference and the backpropagation calculates the gradient from the loss augmented inference layer to the convolutional layer. Thus, we obtain a new type of convolutional neural network called an Structured SVM convolutional neural network, which we applied to the human pose estimation problem. This new neural network can be used as the final layers in deep learning. Our method jointly learns the structural model parameters and the appearance model parameters. We implemented our method as a new layer in the existing Caffe library. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

2014-09-01

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

PubMed Central

Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

2014-01-01

There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary "N" and "T" Using SEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; von Oertzen, Timo; Lindenberger, Ulman

2012-01-01

This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary "T" and "N" by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time…

A hybrid least squares support vector machines and GMDH approach for river flow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsudin, R.; Saad, P.; Shabri, A.

2010-06-01

This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), known as GLSSVM. The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables for LSSVM model and the LSSVM model which works as time series forecasting. In this study the application of GLSSVM for monthly river flow forecasting of Selangor and Bernam River are investigated. The results of the proposed GLSSVM approach are compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The standard statistical, the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) are employed to evaluate the performance of various models developed. Experiment result indicates that the hybrid model was powerful tools to model discharge time series and can be applied successfully in complex hydrological modeling.

Evolving lessons on nanomaterial-coated viral vectors for local and systemic gene therapy

PubMed Central

Kasala, Dayananda; Yoon, A-Rum; Hong, Jinwoo; Kim, Sung Wan; Yun, Chae-Ok

2016-01-01

Viral vectors are promising gene carriers for cancer therapy. However, virus-mediated gene therapies have demonstrated insufficient therapeutic efficacy in clinical trials due to rapid dissemination to nontarget tissues and to the immunogenicity of viral vectors, resulting in poor retention at the disease locus and induction of adverse inflammatory responses in patients. Further, the limited tropism of viral vectors prevents efficient gene delivery to target tissues. In this regard, modification of the viral surface with nanomaterials is a promising strategy to augment vector accumulation at the target tissue, circumvent the host immune response, and avoid nonspecific interactions with the reticuloendothelial system or serum complement. In the present review, we discuss various chemical modification strategies to enhance the therapeutic efficacy of viral vectors delivered either locally or systemically. We conclude by highlighting the salient features of various nanomaterial-coated viral vectors and their prospects and directions for future research. PMID:27348247

The gene-environmental architecture of the development of adolescent substance use.

PubMed

Vitaro, Frank; Dickson, Daniel J; Brendgen, Mara; Laursen, Brett; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2018-02-19

Using a longitudinal twin design and a latent growth curve/autoregressive approach, this study examined the genetic-environmental architecture of substance use across adolescence. Self-reports of substance use (i.e. alcohol, marijuana) were collected at ages 13, 14, 15, and 17 years from 476 twin pairs (475 boys, 477 girls) living in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Substance use increased linearly across the adolescent years. ACE modeling revealed that genetic, as well as shared and non-shared environmental factors explained the overall level of substance use and that these same factors also partly accounted for growth in substance use from age 13 to 17. Additional genetic factors predicted the growth in substance use. Finally, autoregressive effects revealed age-specific non-shared environmental influences and, to a lesser degree, age-specific genetic influences, which together accounted for the stability of substance use across adolescence. The results support and expand the notion that genetic and environmental influences on substance use during adolescence are both developmentally stable and developmentally dynamic.

Predicting complications of percutaneous coronary intervention using a novel support vector method.

PubMed

Lee, Gyemin; Gurm, Hitinder S; Syed, Zeeshan

2013-01-01

To explore the feasibility of a novel approach using an augmented one-class learning algorithm to model in-laboratory complications of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Data from the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) multicenter registry for the years 2007 and 2008 (n=41 016) were used to train models to predict 13 different in-laboratory PCI complications using a novel one-plus-class support vector machine (OP-SVM) algorithm. The performance of these models in terms of discrimination and calibration was compared to the performance of models trained using the following classification algorithms on BMC2 data from 2009 (n=20 289): logistic regression (LR), one-class support vector machine classification (OC-SVM), and two-class support vector machine classification (TC-SVM). For the OP-SVM and TC-SVM approaches, variants of the algorithms with cost-sensitive weighting were also considered. The OP-SVM algorithm and its cost-sensitive variant achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the majority of the PCI complications studied (eight cases). Similar improvements were observed for the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) value (seven cases) and the mean cross-entropy error (eight cases). The OP-SVM algorithm based on an augmented one-class learning problem improved discrimination and calibration across different PCI complications relative to LR and traditional support vector machine classification. Such an approach may have value in a broader range of clinical domains.

Predicting complications of percutaneous coronary intervention using a novel support vector method

PubMed Central

Lee, Gyemin; Gurm, Hitinder S; Syed, Zeeshan

2013-01-01

Objective To explore the feasibility of a novel approach using an augmented one-class learning algorithm to model in-laboratory complications of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Materials and methods Data from the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) multicenter registry for the years 2007 and 2008 (n=41 016) were used to train models to predict 13 different in-laboratory PCI complications using a novel one-plus-class support vector machine (OP-SVM) algorithm. The performance of these models in terms of discrimination and calibration was compared to the performance of models trained using the following classification algorithms on BMC2 data from 2009 (n=20 289): logistic regression (LR), one-class support vector machine classification (OC-SVM), and two-class support vector machine classification (TC-SVM). For the OP-SVM and TC-SVM approaches, variants of the algorithms with cost-sensitive weighting were also considered. Results The OP-SVM algorithm and its cost-sensitive variant achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the majority of the PCI complications studied (eight cases). Similar improvements were observed for the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 value (seven cases) and the mean cross-entropy error (eight cases). Conclusions The OP-SVM algorithm based on an augmented one-class learning problem improved discrimination and calibration across different PCI complications relative to LR and traditional support vector machine classification. Such an approach may have value in a broader range of clinical domains. PMID:23599229

Lentiviral gene transduction of mouse and human hematopoietic stem cells.

PubMed

van Til, Niek P; Wagemaker, Gerard

2014-01-01

Lentiviral vectors can be used to genetically modify a broad range of cells. Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are particularly suitable for lentiviral gene augmentation, because these cells can be enriched with relative ease from mouse bone marrow and human hematopoietic sources, and in principle require relatively limited cell numbers to completely reconstitute the hematopoietic system in vivo. Furthermore, lentiviral vectors are very efficient if pseudotyped with broad tropism envelope proteins. This chapter focuses on gene modification by the use of self-inactivating third-generation human immunodeficiency virus-derived lentiviral vectors for ex vivo HSC modification for both mouse and human application.

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

Design of an optimal preview controller for linear discrete-time descriptor systems with state delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Mengjuan; Liao, Fucheng

2015-04-01

In this paper, the linear discrete-time descriptor system with state delay is studied, and a design method for an optimal preview controller is proposed. First, by using the discrete lifting technique, the original system is transformed into a general descriptor system without state delay in form. Then, taking advantage of the first-order forward difference operator, we construct a descriptor augmented error system, including the state vectors of the lifted system, error vectors, and desired target signals. Rigorous mathematical proofs are given for the regularity, stabilisability, causal controllability, and causal observability of the descriptor augmented error system. Based on these, the optimal preview controller with preview feedforward compensation for the original system is obtained by using the standard optimal regulator theory of the descriptor system. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by numerical simulation.

Relating Factor Models for Longitudinal Data to Quasi-Simplex and NARMA Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2005-01-01

In this article we show the one-factor model can be rewritten as a quasi-simplex model. Using this result along with addition theorems from time series analysis, we describe a common general model, the nonstationary autoregressive moving average (NARMA) model, that includes as a special case, any latent variable model with continuous indicators…

Ontology Sparse Vector Learning Algorithm for Ontology Similarity Measuring and Ontology Mapping via ADAL Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Wei; Zhu, Linli; Wang, Kaiyun

2015-12-01

Ontology, a model of knowledge representation and storage, has had extensive applications in pharmaceutics, social science, chemistry and biology. In the age of “big data”, the constructed concepts are often represented as higher-dimensional data by scholars, and thus the sparse learning techniques are introduced into ontology algorithms. In this paper, based on the alternating direction augmented Lagrangian method, we present an ontology optimization algorithm for ontological sparse vector learning, and a fast version of such ontology technologies. The optimal sparse vector is obtained by an iterative procedure, and the ontology function is then obtained from the sparse vector. Four simulation experiments show that our ontological sparse vector learning model has a higher precision ratio on plant ontology, humanoid robotics ontology, biology ontology and physics education ontology data for similarity measuring and ontology mapping applications.

Support vector machine in crash prediction at the level of traffic analysis zones: Assessing the spatial proximity effects.

PubMed

Dong, Ni; Huang, Helai; Zheng, Liang

2015-09-01

In zone-level crash prediction, accounting for spatial dependence has become an extensively studied topic. This study proposes Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to address complex, large and multi-dimensional spatial data in crash prediction. Correlation-based Feature Selector (CFS) was applied to evaluate candidate factors possibly related to zonal crash frequency in handling high-dimension spatial data. To demonstrate the proposed approaches and to compare them with the Bayesian spatial model with conditional autoregressive prior (i.e., CAR), a dataset in Hillsborough county of Florida was employed. The results showed that SVM models accounting for spatial proximity outperform the non-spatial model in terms of model fitting and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering cross-zonal spatial correlations. The best model predictive capability, relatively, is associated with the model considering proximity of the centroid distance by choosing the RBF kernel and setting the 10% of the whole dataset as the testing data, which further exhibits SVM models' capacity for addressing comparatively complex spatial data in regional crash prediction modeling. Moreover, SVM models exhibit the better goodness-of-fit compared with CAR models when utilizing the whole dataset as the samples. A sensitivity analysis of the centroid-distance-based spatial SVM models was conducted to capture the impacts of explanatory variables on the mean predicted probabilities for crash occurrence. While the results conform to the coefficient estimation in the CAR models, which supports the employment of the SVM model as an alternative in regional safety modeling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective matrix-free preconditioning for the augmented immersed interface method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianlin; Li, Zhilin; Ye, Xin

2015-12-01

We present effective and efficient matrix-free preconditioning techniques for the augmented immersed interface method (AIIM). AIIM has been developed recently and is shown to be very effective for interface problems and problems on irregular domains. GMRES is often used to solve for the augmented variable(s) associated with a Schur complement A in AIIM that is defined along the interface or the irregular boundary. The efficiency of AIIM relies on how quickly the system for A can be solved. For some applications, there are substantial difficulties involved, such as the slow convergence of GMRES (particularly for free boundary and moving interface problems), and the inconvenience in finding a preconditioner (due to the situation that only the products of A and vectors are available). Here, we propose matrix-free structured preconditioning techniques for AIIM via adaptive randomized sampling, using only the products of A and vectors to construct a hierarchically semiseparable matrix approximation to A. Several improvements over existing schemes are shown so as to enhance the efficiency and also avoid potential instability. The significance of the preconditioners includes: (1) they do not require the entries of A or the multiplication of AT with vectors; (2) constructing the preconditioners needs only O (log ⁡ N) matrix-vector products and O (N) storage, where N is the size of A; (3) applying the preconditioners needs only O (N) flops; (4) they are very flexible and do not require any a priori knowledge of the structure of A. The preconditioners are observed to significantly accelerate the convergence of GMRES, with heuristical justifications of the effectiveness. Comprehensive tests on several important applications are provided, such as Navier-Stokes equations on irregular domains with traction boundary conditions, interface problems in incompressible flows, mixed boundary problems, and free boundary problems. The preconditioning techniques are also useful for several other problems and methods.

Variable Speed CMG Control of a Dual-Spin Stabilized Unconventional VTOL Air Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Kyong B.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Shin, J-Y.

2004-01-01

This paper describes an approach based on using both bias momentum and multiple control moment gyros for controlling the attitude of statically unstable thrust-levitated vehicles in hover or slow translation. The stabilization approach described in this paper uses these internal angular momentum transfer devices for stability, augmented by thrust vectoring for trim and other outer loop control functions, including CMG stabilization/ desaturation under persistent external disturbances. Simulation results show the feasibility of (1) improved vehicle performance beyond bias momentum assisted vector thrusting control, and (2) using control moment gyros to significantly reduce the external torque required from the vector thrusting machinery.

On the measurement of stability in over-time data.

PubMed

Kenny, D A; Campbell, D T

1989-06-01

In this article, autoregressive models and growth curve models are compared. Autoregressive models are useful because they allow for random change, permit scores to increase or decrease, and do not require strong assumptions about the level of measurement. Three previously presented designs for estimating stability are described: (a) time-series, (b) simplex, and (c) two-wave, one-factor methods. A two-wave, multiple-factor model also is presented, in which the variables are assumed to be caused by a set of latent variables. The factor structure does not change over time and so the synchronous relationships are temporally invariant. The factors do not cause each other and have the same stability. The parameters of the model are the factor loading structure, each variable's reliability, and the stability of the factors. We apply the model to two data sets. For eight cognitive skill variables measured at four times, the 2-year stability is estimated to be .92 and the 6-year stability is .83. For nine personality variables, the 3-year stability is .68. We speculate that for many variables there are two components: one component that changes very slowly (the trait component) and another that changes very rapidly (the state component); thus each variable is a mixture of trait and state. Circumstantial evidence supporting this view is presented.

Effect of low-dose scopolamine on autonomic control of the heart

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raeder, E. A.; Stys, A.; Cohen, R. J.

1997-01-01

Background: In low doses, scopolamine paradoxically enhances parasympathetic outflow to the heart. The mechanisms which mediate this action are not fully understood. Moreover, there are conflicting data regarding the potential role of sympathetic activity. This study in 17 healthy individuals was designed to characterize the influence of low dose transdermal scopolamine on the gain of the baroreflex and respiratory heart rate reflex and to determine the role of sympathetic activity. Methods: The effect of scopolamine was analyzed in the time and frequency domain by computing heart rate variability indices. The gains of the respiratory heart rate reflex and the baroreflex were estimated simultaneously by means of a cardiovascular system identification approach using an optimized autoregressive moving average algorithm. Measurements were repeated in the upright posture to assess the influence of enhanced sympathetic activity. In six subjects ambulatory ECGs were recorded to determine whether there are diurnal variations of the effect of scopolamine. Results: Scopolamine enhances vagal modulation of heart rate through both the respiratory-heart rate reflex and the baroreflex, as the gains of both were augmented by the drug in the supine and in the upright postures. Conclusions: Scopolamine increases parasympathetic cardiac control by augmenting the gain of the respiratory-heart rate and baroreflex. This action is not attenuated in the upright posture when sympathetic tone is increased.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

Developing an Application to Increase the Accessibility of Planetary Geologic Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobsen, R. E.; Fay, C.

2018-06-01

USGS planetary geologic maps are widely used digital products with text, raster, vector, and temporal data, within a highly standardized design. This tool will augment the user experience by improving accessibility among the various forms of data.

Exploring the transformation and upgrading of China's economy using electricity consumption data: A VAR-VEC based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Zhou, Kaile; Yang, Shanlin; Shao, Zhen

2017-05-01

Since the reforming and opening up in 1978, China has experienced a miraculous development. To investigate the transformation and upgrading of China's economy, this study focuses on the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption of the secondary and tertiary industry in China. This paper captures the dynamic interdependencies among the related variables using a theoretical framework based on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR)-Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using the macroeconomic and electricity consumption data, the results show that, for secondary industry, there is only a unidirectional Granger causality from electricity consumption to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1980 to 2000. However, for the tertiary industry, it only occurs that GDP Granger causes electricity consumption from 2001 to 2014. All these conclusions are verified by the impulse response function and variance decomposition. This study has a great significance to reveal the relationship between industrial electricity consumption and the pattern of economic development. Meanwhile, it further suggests that, since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the trend of the economic transformation and upgrading has gradually appeared.

Riemannian multi-manifold modeling and clustering in brain networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavakis, Konstantinos; Salsabilian, Shiva; Wack, David S.; Muldoon, Sarah F.; Baidoo-Williams, Henry E.; Vettel, Jean M.; Cieslak, Matthew; Grafton, Scott T.

2017-08-01

This paper introduces Riemannian multi-manifold modeling in the context of brain-network analytics: Brainnetwork time-series yield features which are modeled as points lying in or close to a union of a finite number of submanifolds within a known Riemannian manifold. Distinguishing disparate time series amounts thus to clustering multiple Riemannian submanifolds. To this end, two feature-generation schemes for brain-network time series are put forth. The first one is motivated by Granger-causality arguments and uses an auto-regressive moving average model to map low-rank linear vector subspaces, spanned by column vectors of appropriately defined observability matrices, to points into the Grassmann manifold. The second one utilizes (non-linear) dependencies among network nodes by introducing kernel-based partial correlations to generate points in the manifold of positivedefinite matrices. Based on recently developed research on clustering Riemannian submanifolds, an algorithm is provided for distinguishing time series based on their Riemannian-geometry properties. Numerical tests on time series, synthetically generated from real brain-network structural connectivity matrices, reveal that the proposed scheme outperforms classical and state-of-the-art techniques in clustering brain-network states/structures.

Comparison of causality analysis on simultaneously measured fMRI and NIRS signals during motor tasks.

PubMed

Anwar, Abdul Rauf; Muthalib, Makii; Perrey, Stephane; Galka, Andreas; Granert, Oliver; Wolff, Stephan; Deuschl, Guenther; Raethjen, Jan; Heute, Ulrich; Muthuraman, Muthuraman

2013-01-01

Brain activity can be measured using different modalities. Since most of the modalities tend to complement each other, it seems promising to measure them simultaneously. In to be presented research, the data recorded from Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS), simultaneously, are subjected to causality analysis using time-resolved partial directed coherence (tPDC). Time-resolved partial directed coherence uses the principle of state space modelling to estimate Multivariate Autoregressive (MVAR) coefficients. This method is useful to visualize both frequency and time dynamics of causality between the time series. Afterwards, causality results from different modalities are compared by estimating the Spearman correlation. In to be presented study, we used directionality vectors to analyze correlation, rather than actual signal vectors. Results show that causality analysis of the fMRI correlates more closely to causality results of oxy-NIRS as compared to deoxy-NIRS in case of a finger sequencing task. However, in case of simple finger tapping, no clear difference between oxy-fMRI and deoxy-fMRI correlation is identified.

Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: A myth or reality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metin-Özcan, Kıvılcım; Us, Vuslat

2007-11-01

The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate depreciation volatility, inflation volatility and expectations. Furthermore, the generalized impulse response function (IRF) analysis, in addition to the analysis of variance decomposition (VDC) gives support to the notion that dollarization seems to sustain its persistent nature, thus hysteresis still prevails. Hence, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions apparently contribute to dollarization while dollarization itself contains inertia. Furthermore, dedollarization that presumably started after 2001 has lost headway after May 2006. Thus, it seems too early to conclude that dollarization changed its route to dedollarization.

Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

PubMed Central

Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market “underreacting.” The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market. PMID:23690737

Short-term forecasting of electric loads using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks with exogenous vector inputs

DOE PAGES

Buitrago, Jaime; Asfour, Shihab

2017-01-01

Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input.more » Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. Finally, the New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.« less

Short-term forecasting of electric loads using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks with exogenous vector inputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buitrago, Jaime; Asfour, Shihab

Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input.more » Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. Finally, the New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.« less

The effect of elevated temperatures on the life history and insecticide resistance phenotype of the major malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Oliver, Shüné V; Brooke, Basil D

2017-02-14

Temperature plays a crucial role in the life history of insects. Recent climate change research has highlighted the importance of elevated temperature on malaria vector distribution. This study aims to examine the role of elevated temperatures on epidemiologically important life-history traits in the major malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis. Specifically, the differential effects of temperature on insecticide-resistant and susceptible strains were examined. Two laboratory strains of A. arabiensis, the insecticide-susceptible SENN and the insecticide-resistant SENN DDT strains, were used to examine the effect of elevated temperatures on larval development and adult longevity. The effects of various elevated temperatures on insecticide resistance phenotypes were also examined and the biochemical basis of the changes in insecticide resistance phenotype was assessed. SENN and SENN DDT larvae developed at similar rates at elevated temperatures. SENN DDT adult survivorship did not vary between control and elevated temperatures, while the longevity of SENN adults at constantly elevated temperatures was significantly reduced. SENN DDT adults lived significantly longer than SENN at constantly elevated temperatures. Elevated rearing temperatures, as well as a short-term exposure to 37 and 39 °C as adults, augmented pyrethroid resistance in adult SENN DDT, and increased pyrethroid tolerance in SENN. Detoxification enzyme activity was not implicated in this phenotypic effect. Quercertin-induced synergism of inducible heat shock proteins negated this temperature-mediated augmentation of pyrethroid resistance. Insecticide-resistant A. arabiensis live longer than their susceptible counterparts at elevated temperatures. Exposure to heat shock augments pyrethroid resistance in both resistant and susceptible strains. This response is potentially mediated by inducible heat shock proteins.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling.

PubMed

Schuurman, Noémi K; Houtveen, Jan H; Hamaker, Ellen L

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30-50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters.

Prediction of Driver’s Intention of Lane Change by Augmenting Sensor Information Using Machine Learning Techniques

PubMed Central

Kim, Il-Hwan; Bong, Jae-Hwan; Park, Jooyoung; Park, Shinsuk

2017-01-01

Driver assistance systems have become a major safety feature of modern passenger vehicles. The advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) is one of the active safety systems to improve the vehicle control performance and, thus, the safety of the driver and the passengers. To use the ADAS for lane change control, rapid and correct detection of the driver’s intention is essential. This study proposes a novel preprocessing algorithm for the ADAS to improve the accuracy in classifying the driver’s intention for lane change by augmenting basic measurements from conventional on-board sensors. The information on the vehicle states and the road surface condition is augmented by using an artificial neural network (ANN) models, and the augmented information is fed to a support vector machine (SVM) to detect the driver’s intention with high accuracy. The feasibility of the developed algorithm was tested through driving simulator experiments. The results show that the classification accuracy for the driver’s intention can be improved by providing an SVM model with sufficient driving information augmented by using ANN models of vehicle dynamics. PMID:28604582

Identification of the ENT1 antagonists dipyridamole and dilazep as amplifiers of oncolytic herpes simplex virus-1 replication.

PubMed

Passer, Brent J; Cheema, Tooba; Zhou, Bingsen; Wakimoto, Hiroaki; Zaupa, Cecile; Razmjoo, Mani; Sarte, Jason; Wu, Shulin; Wu, Chin-lee; Noah, James W; Li, Qianjun; Buolamwini, John K; Yen, Yun; Rabkin, Samuel D; Martuza, Robert L

2010-05-15

Oncolytic herpes simplex virus-1 (oHSV) vectors selectively replicate in tumor cells, where they kill through oncolysis while sparing normal cells. One of the drawbacks of oHSV vectors is their limited replication and spread to neighboring cancer cells. Here, we report the outcome of a high-throughput chemical library screen to identify small-molecule compounds that augment the replication of oHSV G47Delta. Of the 2,640-screened bioactives, 6 compounds were identified and subsequently validated for enhanced G47Delta replication. Two of these compounds, dipyridamole and dilazep, interfered with nucleotide metabolism by potently and directly inhibiting the equilibrative nucleoside transporter-1 (ENT1). Replicative amplification promoted by dipyridamole and dilazep were dependent on HSV mutations in ICP6, the large subunit of ribonucleotide reductase. Our results indicate that ENT1 antagonists augment oHSV replication in tumor cells by increasing cellular ribonucleoside activity. (c)2010 AACR.

A Comparative Study of Distribution System Parameter Estimation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Williams, Tess L.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup

2016-07-17

In this paper, we compare two parameter estimation methods for distribution systems: residual sensitivity analysis and state-vector augmentation with a Kalman filter. These two methods were originally proposed for transmission systems, and are still the most commonly used methods for parameter estimation. Distribution systems have much lower measurement redundancy than transmission systems. Therefore, estimating parameters is much more difficult. To increase the robustness of parameter estimation, the two methods are applied with combined measurement snapshots (measurement sets taken at different points in time), so that the redundancy for computing the parameter values is increased. The advantages and disadvantages of bothmore » methods are discussed. The results of this paper show that state-vector augmentation is a better approach for parameter estimation in distribution systems. Simulation studies are done on a modified version of IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder with varying levels of measurement noise and non-zero error in the other system model parameters.« less

Study of Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Velocity-vector Based Command Augmentation System (V-CAS) on Pilot Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Dahai; Goodrich, Ken; Peak, Bob

2006-01-01

This study investigated the effects of synthetic vision system (SVS) concepts and advanced flight controls on single pilot performance (SPP). Specifically, we evaluated the benefits and interactions of two levels of terrain portrayal, guidance symbology, and control-system response type on SPP in the context of lower-landing minima (LLM) approaches. Performance measures consisted of flight technical error (FTE) and pilot perceived workload. In this study, pilot rating, control type, and guidance symbology were not found to significantly affect FTE or workload. It is likely that transfer from prior experience, limited scope of the evaluation task, specific implementation limitations, and limited sample size were major factors in obtaining these results.

Targeted Modifications in Adeno-Associated Virus Serotype 8 Capsid Improves Its Hepatic Gene Transfer Efficiency In Vivo

PubMed Central

Sen, Dwaipayan; Gadkari, Rupali A; Sudha, Govindarajan; Gabriel, Nishanth; Kumar, Yesupatham Sathish; Selot, Ruchita; Samuel, Rekha; Rajalingam, Sumathi; Ramya, V.; Nair, Sukesh C.; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy; Srivastava, Alok

2013-01-01

Abstract Recombinant adeno-associated virus vectors based on serotype 8 (AAV8) have shown significant promise for liver-directed gene therapy. However, to overcome the vector dose dependent immunotoxicity seen with AAV8 vectors, it is important to develop better AAV8 vectors that provide enhanced gene expression at significantly low vector doses. Since it is known that AAV vectors during intracellular trafficking are targeted for destruction in the cytoplasm by the host–cellular kinase/ubiquitination/proteasomal machinery, we modified specific serine/threonine kinase or ubiquitination targets on the AAV8 capsid to augment its transduction efficiency. Point mutations at specific serine (S)/threonine (T)/lysine (K) residues were introduced in the AAV8 capsid at the positions equivalent to that of the effective AAV2 mutants, generated successfully earlier. Extensive structure analysis was carried out subsequently to evaluate the structural equivalence between the two serotypes. scAAV8 vectors with the wild-type (WT) and each one of the S/T→Alanine (A) or K-Arginine (R) mutant capsids were evaluated for their liver transduction efficiency in C57BL/6 mice in vivo. Two of the AAV8-S→A mutants (S279A and S671A), and a K137R mutant vector, demonstrated significantly higher enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) transcript levels (∼9- to 46-fold) in the liver compared to animals that received WT-AAV8 vectors alone. The best performing AAV8 mutant (K137R) vector also had significantly reduced ubiquitination of the viral capsid, reduced activation of markers of innate immune response, and a concomitant two-fold reduction in the levels of neutralizing antibody formation in comparison to WT-AAV8 vectors. Vector biodistribution studies revealed that the K137R mutant had a significantly higher and preferential transduction of the liver (106 vs. 7.7 vector copies/mouse diploid genome) when compared to WT-AAV8 vectors. To further study the utility of the K137R-AAV8 mutant in therapeutic gene transfer, we delivered human coagulation factor IX (h.FIX) under the control of liver-specific promoters (LP1 or hAAT) into C57BL/6 mice. The circulating levels of h.FIX:Ag were higher in all the K137R-AAV8 treated groups up to 8 weeks post-hepatic gene transfer. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of the use of this novel AAV8 vectors for potential gene therapy of hemophilia B. PMID:23442071

Get Over It! A Multilevel Threshold Autoregressive Model for State-Dependent Affect Regulation.

PubMed

De Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Gottman, John M; Bergeman, Cindy S; Hamaker, Ellen L

2016-03-01

Intensive longitudinal data provide rich information, which is best captured when specialized models are used in the analysis. One of these models is the multilevel autoregressive model, which psychologists have applied successfully to study affect regulation as well as alcohol use. A limitation of this model is that the autoregressive parameter is treated as a fixed, trait-like property of a person. We argue that the autoregressive parameter may be state-dependent, for example, if the strength of affect regulation depends on the intensity of affect experienced. To allow such intra-individual variation, we propose a multilevel threshold autoregressive model. Using simulations, we show that this model can be used to detect state-dependent regulation with adequate power and Type I error. The potential of the new modeling approach is illustrated with two empirical applications that extend the basic model to address additional substantive research questions.

Robust Semi-Active Ride Control under Stochastic Excitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

broad classes of time-series models which are of practical importance; the Auto-Regressive (AR) models, the Integrated (I) models, and the Moving...Average (MA) models [12]. Combinations of these models result in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average...Down Up 4) Down Down These four cases can be written in compact form as: (20) Where is the Heaviside

Random Process Simulation for stochastic fatigue analysis. Ph.D. Thesis - Rice Univ., Houston, Tex.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, Curtis E.

1988-01-01

A simulation technique is described which directly synthesizes the extrema of a random process and is more efficient than the Gaussian simulation method. Such a technique is particularly useful in stochastic fatigue analysis because the required stress range moment E(R sup m), is a function only of the extrema of the random stress process. The family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is reviewed and an autoregressive model is presented for modeling the extrema of any random process which has a unimodal power spectral density (psd). The proposed autoregressive technique is found to produce rainflow stress range moments which compare favorably with those computed by the Gaussian technique and to average 11.7 times faster than the Gaussian technique. The autoregressive technique is also adapted for processes having bimodal psd's. The adaptation involves using two autoregressive processes to simulate the extrema due to each mode and the superposition of these two extrema sequences. The proposed autoregressive superposition technique is 9 to 13 times faster than the Gaussian technique and produces comparable values for E(R sup m) for bimodal psd's having the frequency of one mode at least 2.5 times that of the other mode.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caceres, Gabriel Antonio; Feigelson, Eric

2016-01-01

The Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS) project uses statistical methodology associated with autoregressive (AR) processes to model Kepler lightcurves in order to improve exoplanet transit detection in systems with high stellar variability. We also introduce a planet-search algorithm to detect transits in time-series residuals after application of the AR models. One of the main obstacles in detecting faint planetary transits is the intrinsic stellar variability of the host star. The variability displayed by many stars may have autoregressive properties, wherein later flux values are correlated with previous ones in some manner. Our analysis procedure consisting of three steps: pre-processing of the data to remove discontinuities, gaps and outliers; AR-type model selection and fitting; and transit signal search of the residuals using a new Transit Comb Filter (TCF) that replaces traditional box-finding algorithms. The analysis procedures of the project are applied to a portion of the publicly available Kepler light curve data for the full 4-year mission duration. Tests of the methods have been made on a subset of Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) systems, classified both as planetary `candidates' and `false positives' by the Kepler Team, as well as a random sample of unclassified systems. We find that the ARMA-type modeling successfully reduces the stellar variability, by a factor of 10 or more in active stars and by smaller factors in more quiescent stars. A typical quiescent Kepler star has an interquartile range (IQR) of ~10 e-/sec, which may improve slightly after modeling, while those with IQR ranging from 20 to 50 e-/sec, have improvements from 20% up to 70%. High activity stars (IQR exceeding 100) markedly improve. A periodogram based on the TCF is constructed to concentrate the signal of these periodic spikes. When a periodic transit is found, the model is displayed on a standard period-folded averaged light curve. Our findings to date on real-data tests of the KARPS methodology will be discussed including confirmation of some Kepler Team `candidate' planets. We also present cases of new possible planetary signals.

Comparison of estimators of standard deviation for hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Gilroy, Edward J.

1982-01-01

Unbiasing factors as a function of serial correlation, ρ, and sample size, n for the sample standard deviation of a lag one autoregressive model were generated by random number simulation. Monte Carlo experiments were used to compare the performance of several alternative methods for estimating the standard deviation σ of a lag one autoregressive model in terms of bias, root mean square error, probability of underestimation, and expected opportunity design loss. Three methods provided estimates of σ which were much less biased but had greater mean square errors than the usual estimate of σ: s = (1/(n - 1) ∑ (xi −x¯)2)½. The three methods may be briefly characterized as (1) a method using a maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiasing factor, (2) a method using an empirical Bayes estimate of the unbiasing factor, and (3) a robust nonparametric estimate of σ suggested by Quenouille. Because s tends to underestimate σ, its use as an estimate of a model parameter results in a tendency to underdesign. If underdesign losses are considered more serious than overdesign losses, then the choice of one of the less biased methods may be wise.

Forecasting electric vehicles sales with univariate and multivariate time series models: The case of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yong; Zhong, Miner; Geng, Nana; Jiang, Yunjian

2017-01-01

The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry.

Forecasting electric vehicles sales with univariate and multivariate time series models: The case of China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Zhong, Miner; Geng, Nana; Jiang, Yunjian

2017-01-01

The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry. PMID:28459872

Novel SHM method to locate damages in substructures based on VARX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugalde, U.; Anduaga, J.; Martínez, F.; Iturrospe, A.

2015-07-01

A novel damage localization method is proposed, which is based on a substructuring approach and makes use of Vector Auto-Regressive with eXogenous input (VARX) models. The substructuring approach aims to divide the monitored structure into several multi-DOF isolated substructures. Later, each individual substructure is modelled as a VARX model, and the health of each substructure is determined analyzing the variation of the VARX model. The method allows to detect whether the isolated substructure is damaged, and besides allows to locate and quantify the damage within the substructure. It is not necessary to have a theoretical model of the structure and only the measured displacement data is required to estimate the isolated substructure's VARX model. The proposed method is validated by simulations of a two-dimensional lattice structure.

Primed for death: Law enforcement-citizen homicides, social media, and retaliatory violence.

PubMed

Bejan, Vladimir; Hickman, Matthew; Parkin, William S; Pozo, Veronica F

2018-01-01

We examine whether retaliatory violence exists between law enforcement and citizens while controlling for any social media contagion effect related to prior fatal encounters. Analyzed using a trivariate dynamic structural vector-autoregressive model, daily time-series data over a 21-month period captured the frequencies of police killed in the line of duty, police deadly use of force incidents, and social media coverage. The results support a significant retaliatory violence effect against minorities by police, yet there is no evidence of retaliatory violence against law enforcement officers by minorities. Also, social media coverage of the Black Lives Matter movement increases the risk of fatal victimization to both law enforcement officers and minorities. Possible explanations for these results are based in rational choice and terror management theories.

Causal Relationships among Technology Acquisition, Absorptive Capacity, and Innovation Performance: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry.

PubMed

Jeon, Jieun; Hong, Suckchul; Ohm, Jay; Yang, Taeyong

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the importance of absorptive capacity in improving a firm's innovation performance. Specifically, we examine firm interaction with the knowledge and capabilities of outside organizations and the effect on the firm's bottom line. We use the impulse-response function of the vector auto-regressive model to gain insight into this relationship by estimating the time required for the effect of each activity level to reach outputs, the spillover effects. We apply this methodology to pharmaceutical firms, which we classify into two sub-groups--large firms and medium and small firms--based on sales. Our results show that the impact of an activity on any other activity is delayed by three years for large firms and by one to two years for small and medium firms.

Primed for death: Law enforcement-citizen homicides, social media, and retaliatory violence

PubMed Central

Bejan, Vladimir; Hickman, Matthew; Pozo, Veronica F.

2018-01-01

We examine whether retaliatory violence exists between law enforcement and citizens while controlling for any social media contagion effect related to prior fatal encounters. Analyzed using a trivariate dynamic structural vector-autoregressive model, daily time-series data over a 21-month period captured the frequencies of police killed in the line of duty, police deadly use of force incidents, and social media coverage. The results support a significant retaliatory violence effect against minorities by police, yet there is no evidence of retaliatory violence against law enforcement officers by minorities. Also, social media coverage of the Black Lives Matter movement increases the risk of fatal victimization to both law enforcement officers and minorities. Possible explanations for these results are based in rational choice and terror management theories. PMID:29320548

The Empirical Relationship between Mining Industry Development and Environmental Pollution in China.

PubMed

Li, Gerui; Lei, Yalin; Ge, Jianping; Wu, Sanmang

2017-03-02

This study uses a vector autoregression (VAR) model to analyze changes in pollutants among different mining industries and related policy in China from 2001 to 2014. The results show that: (1) because the pertinence of standards for mining waste water and waste gas emissions are not strong and because the maximum permissible discharge pollutant concentrations in these standards are too high, ammonia nitrogen and industrial sulfur dioxide discharges increased in most mining industries; (2) chemical oxygen demand was taken as an indicator of sewage treatment in environmental protection plans; hence, the chemical oxygen demand discharge decreased in all mining industries; (3) tax reduction policies, which are only implemented in coal mining and washing and extraction of petroleum and natural gas, decreased the industrial solid waste discharge in these two mining industries.

EIT image reconstruction with four dimensional regularization.

PubMed

Dai, Tao; Soleimani, Manuchehr; Adler, Andy

2008-09-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) reconstructs internal impedance images of the body from electrical measurements on body surface. The temporal resolution of EIT data can be very high, although the spatial resolution of the images is relatively low. Most EIT reconstruction algorithms calculate images from data frames independently, although data are actually highly correlated especially in high speed EIT systems. This paper proposes a 4-D EIT image reconstruction for functional EIT. The new approach is developed to directly use prior models of the temporal correlations among images and 3-D spatial correlations among image elements. A fast algorithm is also developed to reconstruct the regularized images. Image reconstruction is posed in terms of an augmented image and measurement vector which are concatenated from a specific number of previous and future frames. The reconstruction is then based on an augmented regularization matrix which reflects the a priori constraints on temporal and 3-D spatial correlations of image elements. A temporal factor reflecting the relative strength of the image correlation is objectively calculated from measurement data. Results show that image reconstruction models which account for inter-element correlations, in both space and time, show improved resolution and noise performance, in comparison to simpler image models.

The inertial attitude augmentation for ambiguity resolution in SF/SE-GNSS attitude determination.

PubMed

Zhu, Jiancheng; Hu, Xiaoping; Zhang, Jingyu; Li, Tao; Wang, Jinling; Wu, Meiping

2014-06-26

The Unaided Single Frequency/Single Epoch Global Navigation Satellite System (SF/SE GNSS) model is the most challenging scenario for ambiguity resolution in the GNSS attitude determination application. To improve the performance of SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity resolution without excessive cost, the Micro-Electro-Mechanical System Inertial Measurement Unit (MEMS-IMU) is a proper choice for the auxiliary sensor that carries out the inertial attitude augmentation. Firstly, based on the SF/SE-GNSS compass model, the Inertial Derived Baseline Vector (IDBV) is defined to connect the MEMS-IMU attitude measurement with the SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity search space, and the mechanism of inertial attitude augmentation is revealed from the perspective of geometry. Then, through the quantitative description of model strength by Ambiguity Dilution of Precision (ADOP), two ADOPs are specified for the unaided SF/SE-GNSS compass model and its inertial attitude augmentation counterparts, respectively, and a sufficient condition is proposed for augmenting the SF/SE-GNSS model strength with inertial attitude measurement. Finally, in the framework of an integer aperture estimator with fixed failure rate, the performance of SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity resolution with inertial attitude augmentation is analyzed when the model strength is varying from strong to weak. The simulation results show that, in the SF/SE-GNSS attitude determination application, MEMS-IMU can satisfy the requirements of ambiguity resolution with inertial attitude augmentation.

The Inertial Attitude Augmentation for Ambiguity Resolution in SF/SE-GNSS Attitude Determination

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jiancheng; Hu, Xiaoping; Zhang, Jingyu; Li, Tao; Wang, Jinling; Wu, Meiping

2014-01-01

The Unaided Single Frequency/Single Epoch Global Navigation Satellite System (SF/SE GNSS) model is the most challenging scenario for ambiguity resolution in the GNSS attitude determination application. To improve the performance of SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity resolution without excessive cost, the Micro-Electro-Mechanical System Inertial Measurement Unit (MEMS-IMU) is a proper choice for the auxiliary sensor that carries out the inertial attitude augmentation. Firstly, based on the SF/SE-GNSS compass model, the Inertial Derived Baseline Vector (IDBV) is defined to connect the MEMS-IMU attitude measurement with the SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity search space, and the mechanism of inertial attitude augmentation is revealed from the perspective of geometry. Then, through the quantitative description of model strength by Ambiguity Dilution of Precision (ADOP), two ADOPs are specified for the unaided SF/SE-GNSS compass model and its inertial attitude augmentation counterparts, respectively, and a sufficient condition is proposed for augmenting the SF/SE-GNSS model strength with inertial attitude measurement. Finally, in the framework of an integer aperture estimator with fixed failure rate, the performance of SF/SE-GNSS ambiguity resolution with inertial attitude augmentation is analyzed when the model strength is varying from strong to weak. The simulation results show that, in the SF/SE-GNSS attitude determination application, MEMS-IMU can satisfy the requirements of ambiguity resolution with inertial attitude augmentation. PMID:24971472

Comparative capture rate responses of mosquito vectors to light trap and human landing collection methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Landing rates (LR) of female Anopheles quadrimaculatus, Culex nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Ochlerotatus triseriatus and Aedes albopictus on human hosts were compared with capture rates responses by the same species to CDC-type light traps (LT) augmented with CO2. A significant relationship be...

Robust RNAi enhancement via human Argonaute-2 overexpression from plasmids, viral vectors and cell lines

PubMed Central

Börner, Kathleen; Niopek, Dominik; Cotugno, Gabriella; Kaldenbach, Michaela; Pankert, Teresa; Willemsen, Joschka; Zhang, Xian; Schürmann, Nina; Mockenhaupt, Stefan; Serva, Andrius; Hiet, Marie-Sophie; Wiedtke, Ellen; Castoldi, Mirco; Starkuviene, Vytaute; Erfle, Holger; Gilbert, Daniel F.; Bartenschlager, Ralf; Boutros, Michael; Binder, Marco; Streetz, Konrad; Kräusslich, Hans-Georg; Grimm, Dirk

2013-01-01

As the only mammalian Argonaute protein capable of directly cleaving mRNAs in a small RNA-guided manner, Argonaute-2 (Ago2) is a keyplayer in RNA interference (RNAi) silencing via small interfering (si) or short hairpin (sh) RNAs. It is also a rate-limiting factor whose saturation by si/shRNAs limits RNAi efficiency and causes numerous adverse side effects. Here, we report a set of versatile tools and widely applicable strategies for transient or stable Ago2 co-expression, which overcome these concerns. Specifically, we engineered plasmids and viral vectors to co-encode a codon-optimized human Ago2 cDNA along with custom shRNAs. Furthermore, we stably integrated this Ago2 cDNA into a panel of standard human cell lines via plasmid transfection or lentiviral transduction. Using various endo- or exogenous targets, we demonstrate the potential of all three strategies to boost mRNA silencing efficiencies in cell culture by up to 10-fold, and to facilitate combinatorial knockdowns. Importantly, these robust improvements were reflected by augmented RNAi phenotypes and accompanied by reduced off-targeting effects. We moreover show that Ago2/shRNA-co-encoding vectors can enhance and prolong transgene silencing in livers of adult mice, while concurrently alleviating hepatotoxicity. Our customizable reagents and avenues should broadly improve future in vitro and in vivo RNAi experiments in mammalian systems. PMID:24049077

Virus diseases of peppers (Capsicum spp.) and their control.

PubMed

Kenyon, Lawrence; Kumar, Sanjeet; Tsai, Wen-Shi; Hughes, Jacqueline d'A

2014-01-01

The number of virus species infecting pepper (Capsicum spp.) crops and their incidences has increased considerably over the past 30 years, particularly in tropical and subtropical pepper production systems. This is probably due to a combination of factors, including the expansion and intensification of pepper cultivation in these regions, the increased volume and speed of global trade of fresh produce (including peppers) carrying viruses and vectors to new locations, and perhaps climate change expanding the geographic range suitable for the viruses and vectors. With the increased incidences of diverse virus species comes increased incidences of coinfection with two or more virus species in the same plant. There is then greater chance of synergistic interactions between virus species, increasing symptom severity and weakening host resistance, as well as the opportunity for genetic recombination and component exchange and a possible increase in aggressiveness, virulence, and transmissibility. The main virus groups infecting peppers are transmitted by aphids, whiteflies, or thrips, and a feature of many populations of these vector groups is that they can develop resistance to some of the commonly used insecticides relatively quickly. This, coupled with the increasing concern over the impact of over- or misuse of insecticides on the environment, growers, and consumers, means that there should be less reliance on insecticides to control the vectors of viruses infecting pepper crops. To improve the durability of pepper crop protection measures, there should be a shift away from the broadscale use of insecticides and the use of single, major gene resistance to viruses. Instead, integrated and pragmatic virus control measures should be sought that combine (1) cultural practices that reduce sources of virus inoculum and decrease the rate of spread of viruliferous vectors into the pepper crop, (2) synthetic insecticides, which should be used judiciously and only when the plants are young and most susceptible to infection, (3) appropriate natural products and biocontrol agents to induce resistance in the plants, affect the behavior of the vector insects, or augment the local populations of parasites or predators of the virus vectors, and (4) polygenic resistances against viruses and vector insects with pyramided single-gene virus resistances to improve resistance durability.

Augmented Reality Based Doppler Lidar Data Visualization: Promises and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherukuru, N. W.; Calhoun, R.

2016-06-01

Augmented reality (AR) is a technology in which the enables the user to view virtual content as if it existed in real world. We are exploring the possibility of using this technology to view radial velocities or processed wind vectors from a Doppler wind lidar, thus giving the user an ability to see the wind in a literal sense. This approach could find possible applications in aviation safety, atmospheric data visualization as well as in weather education and public outreach. As a proof of concept, we used the lidar data from a recent field campaign and developed a smartphone application to view the lidar scan in augmented reality. In this paper, we give a brief methodology of this feasibility study, present the challenges and promises of using AR technology in conjunction with Doppler wind lidars.

Stability boundaries for command augmentation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shrivastava, P. C.

1987-01-01

The Stability Augmentation System (SAS) is a special case of the Command Augmentation System (CAS). Control saturation imposes bounds on achievable commands. The state equilibrium depends only on the open loop dynamics and control deflection. The control magnitude to achieve a desired command equilibrium is independent of the feedback gain. A feedback controller provides the desired response, maintains the system equilibrium under disturbances, but it does not affect the equilibrium values of states and control. The saturation boundaries change with commands, but the location of the equilibrium points in the saturated region remains unchanged. Nonzero command vectors yield saturation boundaries that are asymmetric with respect to the state equilibrium. Except for the saddle point case with MCE control law, the stability boundaries change with commands. For the cases of saddle point and unstable nodes, the region of stability decreases with increasing command magnitudes.

An adenovirus vectored mucosal adjuvant augments protection of mice immunized intranasally with an adenovirus-vectored foot-and-mouth disease virus subunit vaccine.

PubMed

Alejo, Diana M; Moraes, Mauro P; Liao, Xiaofen; Dias, Camila C; Tulman, Edan R; Diaz-San Segundo, Fayna; Rood, Debra; Grubman, Marvin J; Silbart, Lawrence K

2013-04-26

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly contagious pathogen that causes severe morbidity and economic losses to the livestock industry in many countries. The oral and respiratory mucosae are the main ports of entry of FMDV, so the stimulation of local immunity in these tissues may help prevent initial infection and viral spread. E. coli heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) has been described as one of the few molecules that have adjuvant activity at mucosal surfaces. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of replication-defective adenovirus 5 (Ad5) vectors encoding either of two LT-based mucosal adjuvants, LTB or LTR72. These vectored adjuvants were delivered intranasally to mice concurrent with an Ad5-FMDV vaccine (Ad5-A24) to assess their ability to augment mucosal and systemic humoral immune responses to Ad5-A24 and protection against FMDV. Mice receiving Ad5-A24 plus Ad5-LTR72 had higher levels of mucosal and systemic neutralizing antibodies than those receiving Ad5-A24 alone or Ad5-A24 plus Ad5-LTB. The vaccine plus Ad5-LTR72 group also demonstrated 100% survival after intradermal challenge with a lethal dose of homologous FMDV serotype A24. These results suggest that Ad5-LTR72 could be used as an important tool to enhance mucosal and systemic immunity against FMDV and potentially other pathogens with a common route of entry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Correlation coefficient-based classification method of hydrological dependence variability: With auto-regression model as example].

PubMed

Zhao, Yu Xi; Xie, Ping; Sang, Yan Fang; Wu, Zi Yi

2018-04-01

Hydrological process evaluation is temporal dependent. Hydrological time series including dependence components do not meet the data consistency assumption for hydrological computation. Both of those factors cause great difficulty for water researches. Given the existence of hydrological dependence variability, we proposed a correlationcoefficient-based method for significance evaluation of hydrological dependence based on auto-regression model. By calculating the correlation coefficient between the original series and its dependence component and selecting reasonable thresholds of correlation coefficient, this method divided significance degree of dependence into no variability, weak variability, mid variability, strong variability, and drastic variability. By deducing the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient in each order of series, we found that the correlation coefficient was mainly determined by the magnitude of auto-correlation coefficient from the 1 order to p order, which clarified the theoretical basis of this method. With the first-order and second-order auto-regression models as examples, the reasonability of the deduced formula was verified through Monte-Carlo experiments to classify the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient. This method was used to analyze three observed hydrological time series. The results indicated the coexistence of stochastic and dependence characteristics in hydrological process.

Wolbachia: A biological control strategy against arboviral diseases.

PubMed

Mohanty, Ipsita; Rath, Animesha; Mahapatra, Namita; Hazra, Rupenangshu K

2016-01-01

Vector-borne diseases particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes like Dengue are among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in human population. There are no effective vaccines or treatment against dengue fever till date and the control methods are limited. So, new approaches are urgently in need to reverse these trends. Vector control is currently the primary intervention tool. Strategies that reduce or block pathogen transmission by mosquitoes have been proposed as a means of augmenting current control measures to reduce the growing burden of vector-borne diseases. Wolbachia an endosymbiont of arthropod vectors is being explored as a novel ecofriendly control strategy. Studies in Drosophila have shown that Wolbachia can confer resistance to diverse RNA viruses and protect flies from virus-induced mortality. This review was focused on biology of the Wolbachia and its implication as a control measure for arboviral diseases mainly Dengue and Chikungunya.

A statistical-textural-features based approach for classification of solid drugs using surface microscopic images.

PubMed

Tahir, Fahima; Fahiem, Muhammad Abuzar

2014-01-01

The quality of pharmaceutical products plays an important role in pharmaceutical industry as well as in our lives. Usage of defective tablets can be harmful for patients. In this research we proposed a nondestructive method to identify defective and nondefective tablets using their surface morphology. Three different environmental factors temperature, humidity and moisture are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Multiple textural features are extracted from the surface of the defective and nondefective tablets. These textural features are gray level cooccurrence matrix, run length matrix, histogram, autoregressive model and HAAR wavelet. Total textural features extracted from images are 281. We performed an analysis on all those 281, top 15, and top 2 features. Top 15 features are extracted using three different feature reduction techniques: chi-square, gain ratio and relief-F. In this research we have used three different classifiers: support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors and naïve Bayes to calculate the accuracies against proposed method using two experiments, that is, leave-one-out cross-validation technique and train test models. We tested each classifier against all selected features and then performed the comparison of their results. The experimental work resulted in that in most of the cases SVM performed better than the other two classifiers.

To center or not to center? Investigating inertia with a multilevel autoregressive model.

PubMed

Hamaker, Ellen L; Grasman, Raoul P P P

2014-01-01

Whether level 1 predictors should be centered per cluster has received considerable attention in the multilevel literature. While most agree that there is no one preferred approach, it has also been argued that cluster mean centering is desirable when the within-cluster slope and the between-cluster slope are expected to deviate, and the main interest is in the within-cluster slope. However, we show in a series of simulations that if one has a multilevel autoregressive model in which the level 1 predictor is the lagged outcome variable (i.e., the outcome variable at the previous occasion), cluster mean centering will in general lead to a downward bias in the parameter estimate of the within-cluster slope (i.e., the autoregressive relationship). This is particularly relevant if the main question is whether there is on average an autoregressive effect. Nonetheless, we show that if the main interest is in estimating the effect of a level 2 predictor on the autoregressive parameter (i.e., a cross-level interaction), cluster mean centering should be preferred over other forms of centering. Hence, researchers should be clear on what is considered the main goal of their study, and base their choice of centering method on this when using a multilevel autoregressive model.

To center or not to center? Investigating inertia with a multilevel autoregressive model

PubMed Central

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Grasman, Raoul P. P. P.

2015-01-01

Whether level 1 predictors should be centered per cluster has received considerable attention in the multilevel literature. While most agree that there is no one preferred approach, it has also been argued that cluster mean centering is desirable when the within-cluster slope and the between-cluster slope are expected to deviate, and the main interest is in the within-cluster slope. However, we show in a series of simulations that if one has a multilevel autoregressive model in which the level 1 predictor is the lagged outcome variable (i.e., the outcome variable at the previous occasion), cluster mean centering will in general lead to a downward bias in the parameter estimate of the within-cluster slope (i.e., the autoregressive relationship). This is particularly relevant if the main question is whether there is on average an autoregressive effect. Nonetheless, we show that if the main interest is in estimating the effect of a level 2 predictor on the autoregressive parameter (i.e., a cross-level interaction), cluster mean centering should be preferred over other forms of centering. Hence, researchers should be clear on what is considered the main goal of their study, and base their choice of centering method on this when using a multilevel autoregressive model. PMID:25688215

Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

2016-01-01

This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

Summary of bi-shRNA/GM-CSF augmented autologous tumor cell immunotherapy (FANG™) in advanced cancer of the liver.

PubMed

Nemunaitis, John; Barve, Minal; Orr, Douglas; Kuhn, Joseph; Magee, Mitchell; Lamont, Jeffrey; Bedell, Cynthia; Wallraven, Gladice; Pappen, Beena O; Roth, Alyssa; Horvath, Staci; Nemunaitis, Derek; Kumar, Padmasini; Maples, Phillip B; Senzer, Neil

2014-01-01

Therapies for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are limited. We carried out a phase I trial of a novel autologous whole-cell tumor cell immunotherapy (FANG™), which incorporates a dual granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) expressive/bifunctional small hairpin RNA interference (bi-shRNAi) vector. The bi-shRNAi DNA targets furin, which is a proconvertase of transforming growth factors beta (TGFβ) 1 and 2. Safety, mechanism, immunoeffectiveness, and suggested benefit were previously shown [Senzer et al.: Mol Ther 2012;20:679-689; Senzer et al.: J Vaccines Vaccin 2013;4:209]. We now provide further follow-up of a subset of 8 HCC patients. FANG manufacturing was successful in 7 of 8 attempts (one failure due to insufficient cell yield). Median GM-CSF expression was 144 pg/10(6) cells, TGFβ1 knockdown was 100%, and TGFβ2 knockdown was 93% of the vector-transported cells. Five patients were vaccinated (1 or 2.5×10(7) cells/intradermal injection, 6-11 vaccinations). No FANG toxicity was observed. Three of these patients demonstrated evidence of an immune response to the autologous tumor cell sample. Long-term follow-up demonstrated survival of 319, 729, 784, 931+, and 1,043+ days of the FANG-treated patients. In conclusion, evidence supports further assessment of the FANG immunotherapy in HCC. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

On the relationship between health, education and economic growth: Time series evidence from Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Habib Nawaz; Razali, Radzuan B.; Shafei, Afza Bt.

2016-11-01

The objectives of this paper is two-fold: First, to empirically investigate the effects of an enlarged number of healthy and well-educated people on economic growth in Malaysia within the Endogeneous Growth Model framework. Second, to examine the causal links between education, health and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014 for Malaysia. Data series were checked for the time series properties by using ADF and KPSS tests. Long run co-integration relationship was investigated with the help of vector autoregressive (VAR) method. For short and long run dynamic relationship investigation vector error correction model (VECM) was applied. Causality analysis was performed through Engle-Granger technique. The study results showed long run co-integration relation and positively significant effects of education and health on economic growth in Malaysia. The reported results also confirmed a feedback hypothesis between the variables in the case of Malaysia. The study results have policy relevance of the importance of human capital (health and education) to the growth process of the Malaysia. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers focus on education and health sectors for sustainable economic growth in Malaysia.

A Novel Signal Modeling Approach for Classification of Seizure and Seizure-Free EEG Signals.

PubMed

Gupta, Anubha; Singh, Pushpendra; Karlekar, Mandar

2018-05-01

This paper presents a signal modeling-based new methodology of automatic seizure detection in EEG signals. The proposed method consists of three stages. First, a multirate filterbank structure is proposed that is constructed using the basis vectors of discrete cosine transform. The proposed filterbank decomposes EEG signals into its respective brain rhythms: delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma. Second, these brain rhythms are statistically modeled with the class of self-similar Gaussian random processes, namely, fractional Brownian motion and fractional Gaussian noises. The statistics of these processes are modeled using a single parameter called the Hurst exponent. In the last stage, the value of Hurst exponent and autoregressive moving average parameters are used as features to design a binary support vector machine classifier to classify pre-ictal, inter-ictal (epileptic with seizure free interval), and ictal (seizure) EEG segments. The performance of the classifier is assessed via extensive analysis on two widely used data set and is observed to provide good accuracy on both the data set. Thus, this paper proposes a novel signal model for EEG data that best captures the attributes of these signals and hence, allows to boost the classification accuracy of seizure and seizure-free epochs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santini, Danilo J.; Poyer, David A.

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession,more » real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models that considered effects of oil price changes, but did not account for effects of oil price levels. Gasoline prices were rarely examined. The tests conducted in this report evaluate gasoline instead of oil.« less

How are you feeling?: A personalized methodology for predicting mental states from temporally observable physical and behavioral information.

PubMed

Tuarob, Suppawong; Tucker, Conrad S; Kumara, Soundar; Giles, C Lee; Pincus, Aaron L; Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam

2017-04-01

It is believed that anomalous mental states such as stress and anxiety not only cause suffering for the individuals, but also lead to tragedies in some extreme cases. The ability to predict the mental state of an individual at both current and future time periods could prove critical to healthcare practitioners. Currently, the practical way to predict an individual's mental state is through mental examinations that involve psychological experts performing the evaluations. However, such methods can be time and resource consuming, mitigating their broad applicability to a wide population. Furthermore, some individuals may also be unaware of their mental states or may feel uncomfortable to express themselves during the evaluations. Hence, their anomalous mental states could remain undetected for a prolonged period of time. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the ability of using advanced machine learning based approaches to generate mathematical models that predict current and future mental states of an individual. The problem of mental state prediction is transformed into the time series forecasting problem, where an individual is represented as a multivariate time series stream of monitored physical and behavioral attributes. A personalized mathematical model is then automatically generated to capture the dependencies among these attributes, which is used for prediction of mental states for each individual. In particular, we first illustrate the drawbacks of traditional multivariate time series forecasting methodologies such as vector autoregression. Then, we show that such issues could be mitigated by using machine learning regression techniques which are modified for capturing temporal dependencies in time series data. A case study using the data from 150 human participants illustrates that the proposed machine learning based forecasting methods are more suitable for high-dimensional psychological data than the traditional vector autoregressive model in terms of both magnitude of error and directional accuracy. These results not only present a successful usage of machine learning techniques in psychological studies, but also serve as a building block for multiple medical applications that could rely on an automated system to gauge individuals' mental states. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A conditional Granger causality model approach for group analysis in functional MRI

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhenyu; Wang, Xunheng; Klahr, Nelson J.; Liu, Wei; Arias, Diana; Liu, Hongzhi; von Deneen, Karen M.; Wen, Ying; Lu, Zuhong; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Yijun

2011-01-01

Granger causality model (GCM) derived from multivariate vector autoregressive models of data has been employed for identifying effective connectivity in the human brain with functional MR imaging (fMRI) and to reveal complex temporal and spatial dynamics underlying a variety of cognitive processes. In the most recent fMRI effective connectivity measures, pairwise GCM has commonly been applied based on single voxel values or average values from special brain areas at the group level. Although a few novel conditional GCM methods have been proposed to quantify the connections between brain areas, our study is the first to propose a viable standardized approach for group analysis of an fMRI data with GCM. To compare the effectiveness of our approach with traditional pairwise GCM models, we applied a well-established conditional GCM to pre-selected time series of brain regions resulting from general linear model (GLM) and group spatial kernel independent component analysis (ICA) of an fMRI dataset in the temporal domain. Datasets consisting of one task-related and one resting-state fMRI were used to investigate connections among brain areas with the conditional GCM method. With the GLM detected brain activation regions in the emotion related cortex during the block design paradigm, the conditional GCM method was proposed to study the causality of the habituation between the left amygdala and pregenual cingulate cortex during emotion processing. For the resting-state dataset, it is possible to calculate not only the effective connectivity between networks but also the heterogeneity within a single network. Our results have further shown a particular interacting pattern of default mode network (DMN) that can be characterized as both afferent and efferent influences on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). These results suggest that the conditional GCM approach based on a linear multivariate vector autoregressive (MVAR) model can achieve greater accuracy in detecting network connectivity than the widely used pairwise GCM, and this group analysis methodology can be quite useful to extend the information obtainable in fMRI. PMID:21232892

Evaluating the promise of recombinant transmissible vaccines

PubMed Central

Basinski, Andrew J.; Varrelman, Tanner J.; Smithson, Mark W.; May, Ryan H.; Remien, Christopher H.; Nuismer, Scott L.

2018-01-01

Transmissible vaccines have the potential to revolutionize infectious disease control by reducing the vaccination effort required to protect a population against a disease. Recent efforts to develop transmissible vaccines focus on recombinant transmissible vaccine designs (RTVs) because they pose reduced risk if intra-host evolution causes the vaccine to revert to its vector form. However, the shared antigenicity of the vaccine and vector may confer vaccine-immunity to hosts infected with the vector, thwarting the ability of the vaccine to spread through the population. We build a mathematical model to test whether a RTV can facilitate disease management in instances where reversion is likely to introduce the vector into the population or when the vector organism is already established in the host population, and the vector and vaccine share perfect cross-immunity. Our results show that a RTV can autonomously eradicate a pathogen, or protect a population from pathogen invasion, when cross-immunity between vaccine and vector is absent. If cross-immunity between vaccine and vector exists, however, our results show that a RTV can substantially reduce the vaccination effort necessary to control or eradicate a pathogen only when continuously augmented with direct manual vaccination. These results demonstrate that estimating the extent of cross-immunity between vector and vaccine is a critical step in RTV design, and that herpesvirus vectors showing facile reinfection and weak cross-immunity are promising. PMID:29279283

Three-Axis Attitude Estimation Using Rate-Integrating Gyroscopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

2016-01-01

Traditionally, attitude estimation has been performed using a combination of external attitude sensors and internal three-axis gyroscopes. There are many studies of three-axis attitude estimation using gyros that read angular rates. Rate-integrating gyros measure integrated rates or angular displacements, but three-axis attitude estimation using these types of gyros has not been as fully investigated. This paper derives a Kalman filtering framework for attitude estimation using attitude sensors coupled with rate- integrating gyroscopes. In order to account for correlations introduced by using these gyros, the state vector must be augmented, compared with filters using traditional gyros that read angular rates. Two filters are derived in this paper. The first uses an augmented state-vector form that estimates attitude, gyro biases, and gyro angular displacements. The second ignores correlations, leading to a filter that estimates attitude and gyro biases only. Simulation comparisons are shown for both filters. The work presented in this paper focuses only on attitude estimation using rate-integrating gyros, but it can easily be extended to other applications such as inertial navigation, which estimates attitude and position.

Microsphere-liposome complexes protect adenoviral vectors from neutralising antibody without losses in transfection efficiency, in-vitro.

PubMed

Steel, Jason C; Cavanagh, Heather M A; Burton, Mark A; Kalle, Wouter H J

2004-11-01

Adenoviral vectors have been commonly used in gene therapy protocols but the success of their use is often limited by the induction of host immunity to the vector. Following exposure to the adenoviral vector, adenoviral-specific neutralising antibodies are produced, which limits further administration. This study examines the effectiveness of a novel combination of microspheres and liposomes for the shielding of adenovirus from neutralising antibodies in an in-vitro setting. We show that liposomes are effective in the protection of adenovirus from neutralising antibody and that the conjugation of these complexes to microspheres augments the level of protection. This study further reveals that previously neutralised adenovirus may still be transported into the cell via liposome-cell interactions and is still capable of expressing its genes, making this vector an effective tool for circumvention of the humoral immune response. We also looked at possible side effects of using the complexes, namely increases in cytotoxicity and reductions in transfection efficiency. Our results showed that varying the liposome:adenovirus ratio can reduce the cytotoxicity of the vector as well as increase the transfection efficiency. In addition, in cell lines that are adenoviral competent, transfection efficiencies on par with uncomplexed adenoviral vectors were achievable with the combination vector.

The design and implementation of cost-effective algorithms for direct solution of banded linear systems on the vector processor system 32 supercomputer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samba, A. S.

1985-01-01

The problem of solving banded linear systems by direct (non-iterative) techniques on the Vector Processor System (VPS) 32 supercomputer is considered. Two efficient direct methods for solving banded linear systems on the VPS 32 are described. The vector cyclic reduction (VCR) algorithm is discussed in detail. The performance of the VCR on a three parameter model problem is also illustrated. The VCR is an adaptation of the conventional point cyclic reduction algorithm. The second direct method is the Customized Reduction of Augmented Triangles' (CRAT). CRAT has the dominant characteristics of an efficient VPS 32 algorithm. CRAT is tailored to the pipeline architecture of the VPS 32 and as a consequence the algorithm is implicitly vectorizable.

EGFR-targeted granzyme B expressed in NK cells enhances natural cytotoxicity and mediates specific killing of tumor cells.

PubMed

Oberoi, Pranav; Jabulowsky, Robert A; Bähr-Mahmud, Hayat; Wels, Winfried S

2013-01-01

Natural killer (NK) cells are highly specialized effectors of the innate immune system that hold promise for adoptive cancer immunotherapy. Their cell killing activity is primarily mediated by the pro-apoptotic serine protease granzyme B (GrB), which enters targets cells with the help of the pore-forming protein perforin. We investigated expression of a chimeric GrB fusion protein in NK cells as a means to augment their antitumoral activity. For selective targeting to tumor cells, we fused the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) peptide ligand transforming growth factor α (TGFα) to human pre-pro-GrB. Established human NKL natural killer cells transduced with a lentiviral vector expressed this GrB-TGFα (GrB-T) molecule in amounts comparable to endogenous wildtype GrB. Activation of the genetically modified NK cells by cognate target cells resulted in the release of GrB-T together with endogenous granzymes and perforin, which augmented the effector cells' natural cytotoxicity against NK-sensitive tumor cells. Likewise, GrB-T was released into the extracellular space upon induction of degranulation with PMA and ionomycin. Secreted GrB-T fusion protein displayed specific binding to EGFR-overexpressing tumor cells, enzymatic activity, and selective target cell killing in the presence of an endosomolytic activity. Our data demonstrate that ectopic expression of a targeted GrB fusion protein in NK cells is feasible and can enhance antitumoral activity of the effector cells.

Augmented reality three-dimensional object visualization and recognition with axially distributed sensing.

PubMed

Markman, Adam; Shen, Xin; Hua, Hong; Javidi, Bahram

2016-01-15

An augmented reality (AR) smartglass display combines real-world scenes with digital information enabling the rapid growth of AR-based applications. We present an augmented reality-based approach for three-dimensional (3D) optical visualization and object recognition using axially distributed sensing (ADS). For object recognition, the 3D scene is reconstructed, and feature extraction is performed by calculating the histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) of a sliding window. A support vector machine (SVM) is then used for classification. Once an object has been identified, the 3D reconstructed scene with the detected object is optically displayed in the smartglasses allowing the user to see the object, remove partial occlusions of the object, and provide critical information about the object such as 3D coordinates, which are not possible with conventional AR devices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on combining axially distributed sensing with 3D object visualization and recognition for applications to augmented reality. The proposed approach can have benefits for many applications, including medical, military, transportation, and manufacturing.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-01

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-28

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Real Time Data Management for Estimating Probabilities of Incidents and Near Misses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanitsas, P. D.; Stephanedes, Y. J.

2011-08-01

Advances in real-time data collection, data storage and computational systems have led to development of algorithms for transport administrators and engineers that improve traffic safety and reduce cost of road operations. Despite these advances, problems in effectively integrating real-time data acquisition, processing, modelling and road-use strategies at complex intersections and motorways remain. These are related to increasing system performance in identification, analysis, detection and prediction of traffic state in real time. This research develops dynamic models to estimate the probability of road incidents, such as crashes and conflicts, and incident-prone conditions based on real-time data. The models support integration of anticipatory information and fee-based road use strategies in traveller information and management. Development includes macroscopic/microscopic probabilistic models, neural networks, and vector autoregressions tested via machine vision at EU and US sites.

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Retrieving Tract Variables From Acoustics: A Comparison of Different Machine Learning Strategies.

PubMed

Mitra, Vikramjit; Nam, Hosung; Espy-Wilson, Carol Y; Saltzman, Elliot; Goldstein, Louis

2010-09-13

Many different studies have claimed that articulatory information can be used to improve the performance of automatic speech recognition systems. Unfortunately, such articulatory information is not readily available in typical speaker-listener situations. Consequently, such information has to be estimated from the acoustic signal in a process which is usually termed "speech-inversion." This study aims to propose and compare various machine learning strategies for speech inversion: Trajectory mixture density networks (TMDNs), feedforward artificial neural networks (FF-ANN), support vector regression (SVR), autoregressive artificial neural network (AR-ANN), and distal supervised learning (DSL). Further, using a database generated by the Haskins Laboratories speech production model, we test the claim that information regarding constrictions produced by the distinct organs of the vocal tract (vocal tract variables) is superior to flesh-point information (articulatory pellet trajectories) for the inversion process.

International Trade, Pollution Accumulation and Sustainable Growth: A VAR Estimation from the Pearl River Delta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Hui; Tian, Lu

2018-03-01

In order to investigate international trade influence in the regional environment. This paper constructs a vector auto-regression (VAR) model and estimates the equations with the environment and trade data of the Pearl River Delta Region. The major mechanisms to the lag are discussed and the fit simulation of the environmental change by the international impulse is given. The result shows that impulse of pollution-intensive export deteriorates the environment continuously and impulse of such import improves it. These effects on the environment are insignificantly correlated with contemporary regional income but significantly correlative to early-stage trade feature. To a typical trade-dependent economy, both export and import have hysteresis influence in the regional environment. The lagged impulse will change environmental development in the turning point, maximal pollution level and convergence.

Comparison of ANN and SVM for classification of eye movements in EOG signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Lim Jia; Alias, Norma

2018-03-01

Nowadays, electrooculogram is regarded as one of the most important biomedical signal in measuring and analyzing eye movement patterns. Thus, it is helpful in designing EOG-based Human Computer Interface (HCI). In this research, electrooculography (EOG) data was obtained from five volunteers. The (EOG) data was then preprocessed before feature extraction methods were employed to further reduce the dimensionality of data. Three feature extraction approaches were put forward, namely statistical parameters, autoregressive (AR) coefficients using Burg method, and power spectral density (PSD) using Yule-Walker method. These features would then become input to both artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). The performance of the combination of different feature extraction methods and classifiers was presented and analyzed. It was found that statistical parameters + SVM achieved the highest classification accuracy of 69.75%.

Causal Relationships among Technology Acquisition, Absorptive Capacity, and Innovation Performance: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry

PubMed Central

Jeon, Jieun; Hong, Suckchul; Ohm, Jay; Yang, Taeyong

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the importance of absorptive capacity in improving a firm’s innovation performance. Specifically, we examine firm interaction with the knowledge and capabilities of outside organizations and the effect on the firm’s bottom line. We use the impulse-response function of the vector auto-regressive model to gain insight into this relationship by estimating the time required for the effect of each activity level to reach outputs, the spillover effects. We apply this methodology to pharmaceutical firms, which we classify into two sub-groups – large firms and medium and small firms – based on sales. Our results show that the impact of an activity on any other activity is delayed by three years for large firms and by one to two years for small and medium firms. PMID:26181440

The Empirical Relationship between Mining Industry Development and Environmental Pollution in China

PubMed Central

Li, Gerui; Lei, Yalin; Ge, Jianping; Wu, Sanmang

2017-01-01

This study uses a vector autoregression (VAR) model to analyze changes in pollutants among different mining industries and related policy in China from 2001 to 2014. The results show that: (1) because the pertinence of standards for mining waste water and waste gas emissions are not strong and because the maximum permissible discharge pollutant concentrations in these standards are too high, ammonia nitrogen and industrial sulfur dioxide discharges increased in most mining industries; (2) chemical oxygen demand was taken as an indicator of sewage treatment in environmental protection plans; hence, the chemical oxygen demand discharge decreased in all mining industries; (3) tax reduction policies, which are only implemented in coal mining and washing and extraction of petroleum and natural gas, decreased the industrial solid waste discharge in these two mining industries. PMID:28257126

Thermal signature identification system (TheSIS): a spread spectrum temperature cycling method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merritt, Scott

2015-03-01

NASA GSFC's Thermal Signature Identification System (TheSIS) 1) measures the high order dynamic responses of optoelectronic components to direct sequence spread-spectrum temperature cycling, 2) estimates the parameters of multiple autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or other models the of the responses, 3) and selects the most appropriate model using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Using the AIC-tested model and parameter vectors from TheSIS, one can 1) select high-performing components on a multivariate basis, i.e., with multivariate Figures of Merit (FOMs), 2) detect subtle reversible shifts in performance, and 3) investigate irreversible changes in component or subsystem performance, e.g. aging. We show examples of the TheSIS methodology for passive and active components and systems, e.g. fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) and DFB lasers with coupled temperature control loops, respectively.

Doppler Lidar Vector Retrievals and Atmospheric Data Visualization in Mixed/Augmented Reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherukuru, Nihanth Wagmi

Environmental remote sensing has seen rapid growth in the recent years and Doppler wind lidars have gained popularity primarily due to their non-intrusive, high spatial and temporal measurement capabilities. While lidar applications early on, relied on the radial velocity measurements alone, most of the practical applications in wind farm control and short term wind prediction require knowledge of the vector wind field. Over the past couple of years, multiple works on lidars have explored three primary methods of retrieving wind vectors viz., using homogeneous windfield assumption, computationally extensive variational methods and the use of multiple Doppler lidars. Building on prior research, the current three-part study, first demonstrates the capabilities of single and dual Doppler lidar retrievals in capturing downslope windstorm-type flows occurring at Arizona's Barringer Meteor Crater as a part of the METCRAX II field experiment. Next, to address the need for a reliable and computationally efficient vector retrieval for adaptive wind farm control applications, a novel 2D vector retrieval based on a variational formulation was developed and applied on lidar scans from an offshore wind farm and validated with data from a cup and vane anemometer installed on a nearby research platform. Finally, a novel data visualization technique using Mixed Reality (MR)/ Augmented Reality (AR) technology is presented to visualize data from atmospheric sensors. MR is an environment in which the user's visual perception of the real world is enhanced with live, interactive, computer generated sensory input (in this case, data from atmospheric sensors like Doppler lidars). A methodology using modern game development platforms is presented and demonstrated with lidar retrieved wind fields. In the current study, the possibility of using this technology to visualize data from atmospheric sensors in mixed reality is explored and demonstrated with lidar retrieved wind fields as well as a few earth science datasets for education and outreach activities.

Factors associated with persons with disability employment in India: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Naraharisetti, Ramya; Castro, Marcia C

2016-10-07

Over twenty million persons with disability in India are increasingly being offered poverty alleviation strategies, including employment programs. This study employs a spatial analytic approach to identify correlates of employment among persons with disability in India, considering sight, speech, hearing, movement, and mental disabilities. Based on 2001 Census data, this study utilizes linear regression and spatial autoregressive models to identify factors associated with the proportion employed among persons with disability at the district level. Models stratified by rural and urban areas were also considered. Spatial autoregressive models revealed that different factors contribute to employment of persons with disability in rural and urban areas. In rural areas, having mental disability decreased the likelihood of employment, while being female and having movement, or sight impairment (compared to other disabilities) increased the likelihood of employment. In urban areas, being female and illiterate decreased the likelihood of employment but having sight, mental and movement impairment (compared to other disabilities) increased the likelihood of employment. Poverty alleviation programs designed for persons with disability in India should account for differences in employment by disability types and should be spatially targeted. Since persons with disability in rural and urban areas have different factors contributing to their employment, it is vital that government and service-planning organizations account for these differences when creating programs aimed at livelihood development.

Testing the EKC hypothesis by considering trade openness, urbanization, and financial development: the case of Turkey.

PubMed

Ozatac, Nesrin; Gokmenoglu, Korhan K; Taspinar, Nigar

2017-07-01

This study investigates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the case of Turkey from 1960 to 2013 by considering energy consumption, trade, urbanization, and financial development variables. Although previous literature examines various aspects of the EKC hypothesis for the case of Turkey, our model augments the basic model with several covariates to develop a better understanding of the relationship among the variables and to refrain from omitted variable bias. The results of the bounds test and the error correction model under autoregressive distributed lag mechanism suggest long-run relationships among the variables as well as proof of the EKC and the scale effect in Turkey. A conditional Granger causality test reveals that there are causal relationships among the variables. Our findings can have policy implications including the imposition of a "polluter pays" mechanism, such as the implementation of a carbon tax for pollution trading, to raise the urban population's awareness about the importance of adopting renewable energy and to support clean, environmentally friendly technology.

Teacher Support, Peer Acceptance, and Engagement in the Classroom: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study in Late Childhood.

PubMed

Weyns, Tessa; Colpin, Hilde; De Laet, Steven; Engels, Maaike; Verschueren, Karine

2018-06-01

Although research has examined the bivariate effects of teacher support, peer acceptance, and engagement, it remains unclear how these key classroom experiences evolve together, especially in late childhood. This study aims to provide a detailed picture of their transactional relations in late childhood. A sample of 586 children (M age  = 9.26 years, 47.1% boys) was followed from fourth to sixth grade. Teacher support and engagement were student-reported and peer acceptance was peer-reported. Autoregressive cross-lagged models revealed unique longitudinal effects of both peer acceptance and teacher support on engagement, and of peer acceptance on teacher support. No reverse effects of engagement on peer acceptance or teacher support were found. The study underscores the importance of examining the relative contribution of several social actors in the classroom. Regarding interventions, improving both peer acceptance and teacher support can increase children's engagement, and augmenting peer acceptance can help to increase teacher support.

Iso-vector form factors of the delta and nucleon in QCD sum rules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ozpineci, A.

Form factors are important non-perturbative properties of hadrons. They give information about the internal structure of the hadrons. In this work, iso-vector axial-vector and iso-vector tensor form factors of the nucleon and the iso-vector axial-vector {Delta}{yields}N transition form factor calculations in QCD Sum Rules are presented.

Emotion detection from text

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Jaiswal, Abhijeet; Bhatia, Nikhar

2018-04-01

This paper presents a novel method based on concept of Machine Learning for Emotion Detection using various algorithms of Support Vector Machine and major emotions described are linked to the Word-Net for enhanced accuracy. The approach proposed plays a promising role to augment the Artificial Intelligence in the near future and could be vital in optimization of Human-Machine Interface.

Three-Dimensional Analysis of Long-Term Midface Volume Change After Vertical Vector Deep-Plane Rhytidectomy.

PubMed

Jacono, Andrew A; Malone, Melanie H; Talei, Benjamin

2015-07-01

Facial aging is a complicated process that includes volume loss and soft tissue descent. This study provides quantitative 3-dimensional (3D) data on the long-term effect of vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy on restoring volume to the midface. To determine if primary vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy resulted in long-term volume change in the midface. We performed a prospective study on patients undergoing primary vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy to quantitate 3D volume changes in the midface. Quantitative analysis of volume changes was made using the Vectra 3D imaging software (Canfield Scientific, Inc, Fairfield, New Jersey) at a minimum follow-up of 1 year. Forty-three patients (86 hemifaces) were analyzed. The average volume gained in each hemi-midface after vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy was 3.2 mL. Vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy provides significant long-term augmentation of volume in the midface. These quantitative data demonstrate that some midface volume loss is related to gravitational descent of the cheek fat compartments and that vertical vector deep-plane rhytidectomy may obviate the need for other volumization procedures such as autologous fat grafting in selected cases. 4 Therapeutic. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Status of RPE65 Gene Therapy Trials: Safety and Efficacy

PubMed Central

Pierce, Eric A.; Bennett, Jean

2015-01-01

Several groups have reported the results of clinical trials of gene augmentation therapy for Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA) because of mutations in the RPE65 gene. These studies have used subretinal injection of adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors to deliver the human RPE65 cDNA to the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells of the treated eyes. In all of the studies reported to date, this approach has been shown to be both safe and effective. The successful clinical trials of gene augmentation therapy for retinal degeneration caused by mutations in the RPE65 gene sets the stage for broad application of gene therapy to treat retinal degenerative disorders. PMID:25635059

Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yijun

The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Calegari, Rafael; Fogliatto, Flavio S; Lucini, Filipe R; Neyeloff, Jeruza; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S; Schaan, Beatriz D

2016-01-01

This study aimed at analyzing the performance of four forecasting models in predicting the demand for medical care in terms of daily visits in an emergency department (ED) that handles high complexity cases, testing the influence of climatic and calendrical factors on demand behavior. We tested different mathematical models to forecast ED daily visits at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), which is a tertiary care teaching hospital located in Southern Brazil. Model accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), considering forecasting horizons of 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 days. The demand time series was stratified according to patient classification using the Manchester Triage System's (MTS) criteria. Models tested were the simple seasonal exponential smoothing (SS), seasonal multiplicative Holt-Winters (SMHW), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (MSARIMA). Performance of models varied according to patient classification, such that SS was the best choice when all types of patients were jointly considered, and SARIMA was the most accurate for modeling demands of very urgent (VU) and urgent (U) patients. The MSARIMA models taking into account climatic factors did not improve the performance of the SARIMA models, independent of patient classification.

Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Fogliatto, Flavio S.; Neyeloff, Jeruza; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.; Schaan, Beatriz D.

2016-01-01

This study aimed at analyzing the performance of four forecasting models in predicting the demand for medical care in terms of daily visits in an emergency department (ED) that handles high complexity cases, testing the influence of climatic and calendrical factors on demand behavior. We tested different mathematical models to forecast ED daily visits at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), which is a tertiary care teaching hospital located in Southern Brazil. Model accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), considering forecasting horizons of 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 days. The demand time series was stratified according to patient classification using the Manchester Triage System's (MTS) criteria. Models tested were the simple seasonal exponential smoothing (SS), seasonal multiplicative Holt-Winters (SMHW), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (MSARIMA). Performance of models varied according to patient classification, such that SS was the best choice when all types of patients were jointly considered, and SARIMA was the most accurate for modeling demands of very urgent (VU) and urgent (U) patients. The MSARIMA models taking into account climatic factors did not improve the performance of the SARIMA models, independent of patient classification. PMID:27725842

Orion MPCV Continuum RCS Heating Augmentation Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyatt, Andrew J.; White, Molly E.

2014-01-01

The reaction control system jets of the Orion Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the surface heat flux on the leeside of the aft-body, when they are fired. Changes in surface heating are expressed in terms of augmentation factor over the baseline smooth body heating. Wind tunnel tests revealed heating augmentation factors as high as 13.0, 7.6, 2.8, and 5.8 for the roll, pitch down, pitch up, and yaw jets respectively. Heating augmentation factor models, based almost exclusively on data from a series of wind tunnel tests have been developed, for the purposes of thermal protection system design. The wind tunnel tests investigated several potential jet-to-freestream similarity parameters, and heating augmentation factors derived from the data showed correlation with the jet-to-freestream momentum ratio. However, this correlation was not utilized in the developed models. Instead augmentation factors were held constant throughout the potential trajectory space. This simplification was driven by the fact that ground to flight traceability and sting effects are not well understood. Given the sensitivity of the reaction control system jet heating augmentation to configuration, geometry, and orientation the focus in the present paper is on the methodology used to develop the models and the lessons learned from the data. The models that are outlined in the present work are specific to the aerothermal database used to design the thermal protection system for the Exploration Flight Test 1 vehicle.

Adaptive spline autoregression threshold method in forecasting Mitsubishi car sales volume at PT Srikandi Diamond Motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanti, D.; Hartini, E.; Permana, A.

2017-01-01

Sale and purchase of the growing competition between companies in Indonesian, make every company should have a proper planning in order to win the competition with other companies. One of the things that can be done to design the plan is to make car sales forecast for the next few periods, it’s required that the amount of inventory of cars that will be sold in proportion to the number of cars needed. While to get the correct forecasting, on of the methods that can be used is the method of Adaptive Spline Threshold Autoregression (ASTAR). Therefore, this time the discussion will focus on the use of Adaptive Spline Threshold Autoregression (ASTAR) method in forecasting the volume of car sales in PT.Srikandi Diamond Motors using time series data.In the discussion of this research, forecasting using the method of forecasting value Adaptive Spline Threshold Autoregression (ASTAR) produce approximately correct.

Measurements by a Vector Network Analyzer at 325 to 508 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, King Man; Samoska, Lorene; Chattopadhyay, Goutam; Gaier, Todd; Kangaslahti, Pekka; Pukala, David; Lau, Yuenie; Oleson, Charles; Denning, Anthony

2008-01-01

Recent experiments were performed in which return loss and insertion loss of waveguide test assemblies in the frequency range from 325 to 508 GHz were measured by use of a swept-frequency two-port vector network analyzer (VNA) test set. The experiments were part of a continuing effort to develop means of characterizing passive and active electronic components and systems operating at ever increasing frequencies. The waveguide test assemblies comprised WR-2.2 end sections collinear with WR-3.3 middle sections. The test set, assembled from commercially available components, included a 50-GHz VNA scattering- parameter test set and external signal synthesizers, augmented with recently developed frequency extenders, and further augmented with attenuators and amplifiers as needed to adjust radiofrequency and intermediate-frequency power levels between the aforementioned components. The tests included line-reflect-line calibration procedures, using WR-2.2 waveguide shims as the "line" standards and waveguide flange short circuits as the "reflect" standards. Calibrated dynamic ranges somewhat greater than about 20 dB for return loss and 35 dB for insertion loss were achieved. The measurement data of the test assemblies were found to substantially agree with results of computational simulations.

Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2018-06-01

The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

Classification of EEG signals using a genetic-based machine learning classifier.

PubMed

Skinner, B T; Nguyen, H T; Liu, D K

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the efficacy of the genetic-based learning classifier system XCS, for the classification of noisy, artefact-inclusive human electroencephalogram (EEG) signals represented using large condition strings (108bits). EEG signals from three participants were recorded while they performed four mental tasks designed to elicit hemispheric responses. Autoregressive (AR) models and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) methods were used to form feature vectors with which mental tasks can be discriminated. XCS achieved a maximum classification accuracy of 99.3% and a best average of 88.9%. The relative classification performance of XCS was then compared against four non-evolutionary classifier systems originating from different learning techniques. The experimental results will be used as part of our larger research effort investigating the feasibility of using EEG signals as an interface to allow paralysed persons to control a powered wheelchair or other devices.

Tourism demand in the Algarve region: Evolution and forecast using SVARMA models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Soares, Filomena; Silva, Eliana Costa e.

2017-06-01

Tourism is one of the Portuguese economy's key sectors, and its relative weight has grown over recent years. The Algarve region is particularly focused on attracting foreign tourists and has built over the years a large offer of diversified hotel units. In this paper we present multivariate time series approach to forecast the number of overnight stays in hotel units (hotels, guesthouses or hostels, and tourist apartments) in Algarve. We adjust a seasonal vector autoregressive and moving averages model (SVARMA) to monthly data between 2006 and 2016. The forecast values were compared with the actual values of the overnight stays in Algarve in 2016 and led to a MAPE of 15.1% and RMSE= 53847.28. The MAPE for the Hotel series was merely 4.56%. These forecast values can be used by a hotel manager to predict their occupancy and to determine the best pricing policy.

Plausibility assessment of a 2-state self-paced mental task-based BCI using the no-control performance analysis.

PubMed

Faradji, Farhad; Ward, Rabab K; Birch, Gary E

2009-06-15

The feasibility of having a self-paced brain-computer interface (BCI) based on mental tasks is investigated. The EEG signals of four subjects performing five mental tasks each are used in the design of a 2-state self-paced BCI. The output of the BCI should only be activated when the subject performs a specific mental task and should remain inactive otherwise. For each subject and each task, the feature coefficient and the classifier that yield the best performance are selected, using the autoregressive coefficients as the features. The classifier with a zero false positive rate and the highest true positive rate is selected as the best classifier. The classifiers tested include: linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, Mahalanobis discriminant analysis, support vector machine, and radial basis function neural network. The results show that: (1) some classifiers obtained the desired zero false positive rate; (2) the linear discriminant analysis classifier does not yield acceptable performance; (3) the quadratic discriminant analysis classifier outperforms the Mahalanobis discriminant analysis classifier and performs almost as well as the radial basis function neural network; and (4) the support vector machine classifier has the highest true positive rates but unfortunately has nonzero false positive rates in most cases.

Meta-image navigation augmenters for unmanned aircraft systems (MINA for UAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Òªelik, Koray; Somani, Arun K.; Schnaufer, Bernard; Hwang, Patrick Y.; McGraw, Gary A.; Nadke, Jeremy

2013-05-01

GPS is a critical sensor for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) due to its accuracy, global coverage and small hardware footprint, but is subject to denial due to signal blockage or RF interference. When GPS is unavailable, position, velocity and attitude (PVA) performance from other inertial and air data sensors is not sufficient, especially for small UASs. Recently, image-based navigation algorithms have been developed to address GPS outages for UASs, since most of these platforms already include a camera as standard equipage. Performing absolute navigation with real-time aerial images requires georeferenced data, either images or landmarks, as a reference. Georeferenced imagery is readily available today, but requires a large amount of storage, whereas collections of discrete landmarks are compact but must be generated by pre-processing. An alternative, compact source of georeferenced data having large coverage area is open source vector maps from which meta-objects can be extracted for matching against real-time acquired imagery. We have developed a novel, automated approach called MINA (Meta Image Navigation Augmenters), which is a synergy of machine-vision and machine-learning algorithms for map aided navigation. As opposed to existing image map matching algorithms, MINA utilizes publicly available open-source geo-referenced vector map data, such as OpenStreetMap, in conjunction with real-time optical imagery from an on-board, monocular camera to augment the UAS navigation computer when GPS is not available. The MINA approach has been experimentally validated with both actual flight data and flight simulation data and results are presented in the paper.

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R.; Kimmerer, Wim J.; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B.; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A.; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D.; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-01-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2‰ isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey). Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock–recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state–space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR).

PubMed

Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Feyrer, Frederick; Newman, Ken B; Sih, Andy; Bennett, William A; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Culberson, Steven D; Castillo, Gonzalo

2010-07-01

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey): Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock-recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state-space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Micro-CT image reconstruction based on alternating direction augmented Lagrangian method and total variation.

PubMed

Gopi, Varun P; Palanisamy, P; Wahid, Khan A; Babyn, Paul; Cooper, David

2013-01-01

Micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) plays an important role in pre-clinical imaging. The radiation from micro-CT can result in excess radiation exposure to the specimen under test, hence the reduction of radiation from micro-CT is essential. The proposed research focused on analyzing and testing an alternating direction augmented Lagrangian (ADAL) algorithm to recover images from random projections using total variation (TV) regularization. The use of TV regularization in compressed sensing problems makes the recovered image quality sharper by preserving the edges or boundaries more accurately. In this work TV regularization problem is addressed by ADAL which is a variant of the classic augmented Lagrangian method for structured optimization. The per-iteration computational complexity of the algorithm is two fast Fourier transforms, two matrix vector multiplications and a linear time shrinkage operation. Comparison of experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is stable, efficient and competitive with the existing algorithms for solving TV regularization problems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insulin Therapy Improves Adeno-Associated Virus Transduction of Liver and Skeletal Muscle in Mice and Cultured Cells.

PubMed

Carrig, Sean; Bijjiga, Enoch; Wopat, Mitchell J; Martino, Ashley T

2016-11-01

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) gene transfer is a promising treatment for genetic abnormalities. Optimal AAV vectors are showing success in clinical trials. Gene transfer to skeletal muscle and liver is being explored as a potential therapy for some conditions, that is, α 1 -antitrypsin (AAT) disorder and hemophilia B. Exploring approaches that enhance transduction of liver and skeletal muscle, using these vectors, is beneficial for gene therapy. Regulating hormones as an approach to improve AAV transduction is largely unexplored. In this study we tested whether insulin therapy improves liver and skeletal muscle gene transfer. In vitro studies demonstrated that the temporary coadministration (2, 8, and 24 hr) of insulin significantly improves AAV2-CMV-LacZ transduction of cultured liver cells and differentiated myofibers, but not of lung cells. In addition, there was a dose response related to this improved transduction. Interestingly, when insulin was not coadministered with the virus but given 24 hr afterward, there was no increase in the transgene product. Insulin receptor gene (INSR) expression levels were increased 5- to 13-fold in cultured liver cells and differentiated myofibers when compared with lung cells. Similar INSR gene expression profiles occurred in mouse tissues. Insulin therapy was performed in mice, using a subcutaneously implanted insulin pellet or a high-carbohydrate diet. Insulin treatment began just before intramuscular delivery of AAV1-CMV-schFIX or liver-directed delivery of AAV8-CMV-schFIX and continued for 28 days. Both insulin augmentation therapies improved skeletal muscle- and liver-directed gene transduction in mice as seen by a 3.0- to 4.5-fold increase in human factor IX (hFIX) levels. The improvement was observed even after the insulin therapy ended. Monitoring insulin showed that insulin levels increased during the brief period of rAAV delivery and during the entire insulin augmentation period (28 days). This study demonstrates that AAV transduction of liver or skeletal muscle can be improved by insulin therapy.

Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D.W.; Liebhold, A.M.

1995-10-01

Outbreaks of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), were partially synchronous across New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) from 1938 to 1992. To explain this synchrony, we investigated the Moran effect, a hypothesis that local population oscillations, which result form similar density-dependent mechanisms operating at time lags, may be synchronized over wide areas by exposure to common weather patterns. We also investigated the theory of climatic release, which ostulates that outbreaks are triggered by climatic factors favorable for population growth. Time series analysis revealed defoliation series in 2 states as 1st-order autoregressive processes and the other 2more » as periodic 2nd-order autoregressive processes. Defoliation residuals series computed using the autoregressive models for each state were cross correlated with series of weather variables recorded in the respective states. The weather variables significantly correlated with defoliation residuals in all 4 states were minimum temperature and precipitation in mid-December in the same gypsy moth generation and minimum temperature in mid- to late July of the previous generation. These weather variables also were correlated strongly among the 4 states. The analyses supported the predictions of the Moran effect and suggest the common weather may synchronize local populations so as to produce pest outbreaks over wide areas. We did not find convincing evidence to support the theory of climatic release. 41 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Use of linear regression models to determine influence factors on the concentration levels of radon in occupied houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buermeyer, Jonas; Gundlach, Matthias; Grund, Anna-Lisa; Grimm, Volker; Spizyn, Alexander; Breckow, Joachim

2016-09-01

This work is part of the analysis of the effects of constructional energy-saving measures to radon concentration levels in dwellings performed on behalf of the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection. In parallel to radon measurements for five buildings, both meteorological data outside the buildings and the indoor climate factors were recorded. In order to access effects of inhabited buildings, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) was measured. For a statistical linear regression model, the data of one object was chosen as an example. Three dummy variables were extracted from the process of the CO2 concentration to provide information on the usage and ventilation of the room. The analysis revealed a highly autoregressive model for the radon concentration with additional influence by the natural environmental factors. The autoregression implies a strong dependency on a radon source since it reflects a backward dependency in time. At this point of the investigation, it cannot be determined whether the influence by outside factors affects the source of radon or the habitant’s ventilation behavior resulting in variation of the occurring concentration levels. In any case, the regression analysis might provide further information that would help to distinguish these effects. In the next step, the influence factors will be weighted according to their impact on the concentration levels. This might lead to a model that enables the prediction of radon concentration levels based on the measurement of CO2 in combination with environmental parameters, as well as the development of advices for ventilation.

The effects of radiation on antitumor efficacy of an oncolytic adenovirus vector in the Syrian hamster model

PubMed Central

Young, Brittany A.; Spencer, Jacqueline F.; Ying, Baoling; Toth, Karoly; Wold, William S. M.

2013-01-01

We report that radiation enhances the antitumor efficacy of the oncolytic adenovirus vector VRX-007 in Syrian hamster tumors. We used tumor-specific irradiation of subcutaneous tumors and compared treatment options of radiation alone or combined with VRX-007 and cyclophosphamide (CP). Radiation therapy further augmented the VRX-007-mediated inhibition of tumor growth, in both CP-treated and non-CP-treated hamsters, even though radiation did not lead to increased viral replication in tumors when compared to those treated with VRX-007 alone. Moreover, tumor growth inhibition was similar in tumors irradiated either one week before or after injection with VRX-007, which suggests that radiation exerts its antitumor effect independently from vector therapy. Thus, our results demonstrate that these two therapies do not have to be provided simultaneously to enhance their combined effectiveness against subcutaneous hamster tumors. PMID:23928730

The effects of radiation on antitumor efficacy of an oncolytic adenovirus vector in the Syrian hamster model.

PubMed

Young, B A; Spencer, J F; Ying, B; Toth, K; Wold, W S M

2013-09-01

We report that radiation enhances the antitumor efficacy of the oncolytic adenovirus vector VRX-007 in Syrian hamster tumors. We used tumor-specific irradiation of subcutaneous tumors and compared treatment options of radiation alone or combined with VRX-007 and cyclophosphamide (CP). Radiation therapy further augmented the VRX-007-mediated inhibition of tumor growth, in both CP-treated and non-CP-treated hamsters, even though radiation did not lead to increased viral replication in tumors when compared with those treated with VRX-007 alone. Moreover, tumor growth inhibition was similar in tumors irradiated either 1 week before or after injection with VRX-007, which suggests that radiation exerts its antitumor effect independently from vector therapy. Thus, our results demonstrate that these two therapies do not have to be provided simultaneously to enhance their combined effectiveness against subcutaneous hamster tumors.

Fuzzy support vector machines for adaptive Morse code recognition.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Jin, Li-Cheng; Chuang, Li-Yeh

2006-11-01

Morse code is now being harnessed for use in rehabilitation applications of augmentative-alternative communication and assistive technology, facilitating mobility, environmental control and adapted worksite access. In this paper, Morse code is selected as a communication adaptive device for persons who suffer from muscle atrophy, cerebral palsy or other severe handicaps. A stable typing rate is strictly required for Morse code to be effective as a communication tool. Therefore, an adaptive automatic recognition method with a high recognition rate is needed. The proposed system uses both fuzzy support vector machines and the variable-degree variable-step-size least-mean-square algorithm to achieve these objectives. We apply fuzzy memberships to each point, and provide different contributions to the decision learning function for support vector machines. Statistical analyses demonstrated that the proposed method elicited a higher recognition rate than other algorithms in the literature.

Detection of Wolbachia in Aedes albopictus and Their Effects on Chikungunya Virus

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Noor Afizah; Vythilingam, Indra; Lim, Yvonne A. L.; Zabari, Nur Zatil Aqmar M.; Lee, Han Lim

2017-01-01

Wolbachia-based vector control strategies have been proposed as a means to augment the currently existing measures for controlling dengue and chikungunya vectors. Prior to utilizing Wolbachia as a novel vector control strategy, it is crucial to understand the Wolbachia–mosquito interactions. In this study, field surveys were conducted to screen for the infection status of Wolbachia in field-collected Aedes albopictus. The effects of Wolbachia in its native host toward the replication and dissemination of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was also studied. The prevalence of Wolbachia-infected field-collected Ae. albopictus was estimated to be 98.6% (N = 142) for females and 95.1% (N = 102) for males in the population studied. The Ae. albopictus were naturally infected with both wAlbA and wAlbB strains. We also found that the native Wolbachia has no impact on CHIKV infection and minimal effect on CHIKV dissemination to secondary organs. PMID:27920393

Beyond long memory in heart rate variability: An approach based on fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leite, Argentina; Paula Rocha, Ana; Eduarda Silva, Maria

2013-06-01

Heart Rate Variability (HRV) series exhibit long memory and time-varying conditional variance. This work considers the Fractionally Integrated AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARFIMA) models with Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) errors. ARFIMA-GARCH models may be used to capture and remove long memory and estimate the conditional volatility in 24 h HRV recordings. The ARFIMA-GARCH approach is applied to fifteen long term HRV series available at Physionet, leading to the discrimination among normal individuals, heart failure patients, and patients with atrial fibrillation.

Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Cristina Teresa

2015-02-01

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

How to compare cross-lagged associations in a multilevel autoregressive model.

PubMed

Schuurman, Noémi K; Ferrer, Emilio; de Boer-Sonnenschein, Mieke; Hamaker, Ellen L

2016-06-01

By modeling variables over time it is possible to investigate the Granger-causal cross-lagged associations between variables. By comparing the standardized cross-lagged coefficients, the relative strength of these associations can be evaluated in order to determine important driving forces in the dynamic system. The aim of this study was twofold: first, to illustrate the added value of a multilevel multivariate autoregressive modeling approach for investigating these associations over more traditional techniques; and second, to discuss how the coefficients of the multilevel autoregressive model should be standardized for comparing the strength of the cross-lagged associations. The hierarchical structure of multilevel multivariate autoregressive models complicates standardization, because subject-based statistics or group-based statistics can be used to standardize the coefficients, and each method may result in different conclusions. We argue that in order to make a meaningful comparison of the strength of the cross-lagged associations, the coefficients should be standardized within persons. We further illustrate the bivariate multilevel autoregressive model and the standardization of the coefficients, and we show that disregarding individual differences in dynamics can prove misleading, by means of an empirical example on experienced competence and exhaustion in persons diagnosed with burnout. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Effectiveness of basic display augmentation in vehicular control by visual field cues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grunwald, A. J.; Merhav, S. J.

1978-01-01

The paper investigates the effectiveness of different basic display augmentation concepts - fixed reticle, velocity vector, and predicted future vehicle path - for RPVs controlled by a vehicle-mounted TV camera. The task is lateral manual control of a low flying RPV along a straight reference line in the presence of random side gusts. The man-machine system and the visual interface are modeled as a linear time-invariant system. Minimization of a quadratic performance criterion is assumed to underlie the control strategy of a well-trained human operator. The solution for the optimal feedback matrix enables the explicit computation of the variances of lateral deviation and directional error of the vehicle and of the control force that are used as performance measures.

Patients and animal models of CNGβ1-deficient retinitis pigmentosa support gene augmentation approach

PubMed Central

Petersen-Jones, Simon M.; Occelli, Laurence M.; Winkler, Paige A.; Lee, Winston; Sparrow, Janet R.; Tsukikawa, Mai; Boye, Sanford L.; Chiodo, Vince; Capasso, Jenina E.; Becirovic, Elvir; Schön, Christian; Seeliger, Mathias W.; Levin, Alex V.; Hauswirth, William W.

2017-01-01

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is a major cause of blindness that affects 1.5 million people worldwide. Mutations in cyclic nucleotide-gated channel β 1 (CNGB1) cause approximately 4% of autosomal recessive RP. Gene augmentation therapy shows promise for treating inherited retinal degenerations; however, relevant animal models and biomarkers of progression in patients with RP are needed to assess therapeutic outcomes. Here, we evaluated RP patients with CNGB1 mutations for potential biomarkers of progression and compared human phenotypes with those of mouse and dog models of the disease. Additionally, we used gene augmentation therapy in a CNGβ1-deficient dog model to evaluate potential translation to patients. CNGB1-deficient RP patients and mouse and dog models had a similar phenotype characterized by early loss of rod function and slow rod photoreceptor loss with a secondary decline in cone function. Advanced imaging showed promise for evaluating RP progression in human patients, and gene augmentation using adeno-associated virus vectors robustly sustained the rescue of rod function and preserved retinal structure in the dog model. Together, our results reveal an early loss of rod function in CNGB1-deficient patients and a wide window for therapeutic intervention. Moreover, the identification of potential biomarkers of outcome measures, availability of relevant animal models, and robust functional rescue from gene augmentation therapy support future work to move CNGB1-RP therapies toward clinical trials. PMID:29202463

Automatic cell identification and visualization using digital holographic microscopy with head mounted augmented reality devices.

PubMed

O'Connor, Timothy; Rawat, Siddharth; Markman, Adam; Javidi, Bahram

2018-03-01

We propose a compact imaging system that integrates an augmented reality head mounted device with digital holographic microscopy for automated cell identification and visualization. A shearing interferometer is used to produce holograms of biological cells, which are recorded using customized smart glasses containing an external camera. After image acquisition, segmentation is performed to isolate regions of interest containing biological cells in the field-of-view, followed by digital reconstruction of the cells, which is used to generate a three-dimensional (3D) pseudocolor optical path length profile. Morphological features are extracted from the cell's optical path length map, including mean optical path length, coefficient of variation, optical volume, projected area, projected area to optical volume ratio, cell skewness, and cell kurtosis. Classification is performed using the random forest classifier, support vector machines, and K-nearest neighbor, and the results are compared. Finally, the augmented reality device displays the cell's pseudocolor 3D rendering of its optical path length profile, extracted features, and the identified cell's type or class. The proposed system could allow a healthcare worker to quickly visualize cells using augmented reality smart glasses and extract the relevant information for rapid diagnosis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on the integration of digital holographic microscopy with augmented reality devices for automated cell identification and visualization.

Definitive treatment of the negative vector orbit.

PubMed

Mommaerts, Maurice Y

2018-05-09

In a negative vector orbit, the most anterior globe portion protrudes past the malar eminence. As bulging eyes are considered unaesthetic, patients usually seek correction. However, most current correction techniques produce suboptimal results. Here, we present a surgical technique that sets back the globe and protrudes the malar bone using an intraoral approach. All five patients (aged 17-41 years) in our case series reported being satisfied with the improvement achieved using this technique. Based on our experience, a transoral approach to malar augmentation by valgisation osteotomy may address the bulging eyes aspect through transantral orbital fat reduction in select cases. Copyright © 2018 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of aerodynamic technology for VSTOL fighter/attack aircraft, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driggers, H. H.

1978-01-01

A conceptual design study was performed of a vertical attitude takeoff and landing (VATOL) fighter/attack aircraft. The configuration has a close-coupled canard-delta wing, side two-dimensional ramp inlets, and two augmented turbofan engines with thrust vectoring capability. Performance and sensitivities to objective requirements were calculated. Aerodynamic characteristics were estimated based on contractor and NASA wind tunnel data. Computer simulations of VATOL transitions were performed. Successful transitions can be made, even with series post-stall instabilities, if reaction controls are properly phased. Principal aerodynamic uncertainties identified were post-stall aerodynamics, transonic aerodynamics with thrust vectoring and inlet performance in VATOL transition. A wind tunnel research program was recommended to resolve the aerodynamic uncertainties.

Molasses as a source of carbon dioxide for attracting the malaria mosquitoes Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Most odour baits for haematophagous arthropods contain carbon dioxide (CO2). The CO2 is sourced artificially from the fermentation of refined sugar (sucrose), dry ice, pressurized gas cylinders or propane. These sources of CO2 are neither cost-effective nor sustainable for use in remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, molasses was evaluated as a potential substrate for producing CO2 used as bait for malaria mosquitoes. Methods The attraction of laboratory-reared and wild Anopheles gambiae complex mosquitoes to CO2 generated from yeast-fermentation of molasses was assessed under semi-field and field conditions in western Kenya. In the field, responses of wild Anopheles funestus were also assessed. Attraction of the mosquitoes to a synthetic mosquito attractant, Mbita blend (comprising ammonia, L-lactic acid, tetradecanoic acid and 3-methyl-1-butanol) when augmented with CO2 generated from yeast fermentation of either molasses or sucrose was also investigated. Results In semi-field, the release rate of CO2 and proportion of An. gambiae mosquitoes attracted increased in tandem with an increase in the quantity of yeast-fermented molasses up to an optimal ratio of molasses and dry yeast. More An. gambiae mosquitoes were attracted to a combination of the Mbita blend plus CO2 produced from fermenting molasses than the Mbita blend plus CO2 from yeast-fermented sucrose. In the field, significantly more female An. gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes were attracted to the Mbita blend augmented with CO2 produced by fermenting 500 g of molasses compared to 250 g of sucrose or 250 g of molasses. Similarly, significantly more An. funestus, Culex and other anopheline mosquito species were attracted to the Mbita blend augmented with CO2 produced from fermenting molasses than the Mbita blend with CO2 produced from sucrose. Augmenting the Mbita blend with CO2 produced from molasses was associated with high catches of blood-fed An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus mosquitoes. Conclusion Molasses is a suitable ingredient for the replacement of sucrose as a substrate for the production of CO2 for sampling of African malaria vectors and other mosquito species. The finding of blood-fed malaria vectors in traps baited with the Mbita blend and CO2 derived from molasses provides a unique opportunity for the study of host-vector interactions. PMID:24767543

A historical analysis of natural gas demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalbec, Nathan Richard

This thesis analyzes demand in the US energy market for natural gas, oil, and coal over the period of 1918-2013 and examines their price relationship over the period of 2007-2013. Diagnostic tests for time series were used; Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin, Johansen cointegration, Granger Causality and weak exogeneity tests. Directed acyclic graphs were used as a complimentary test for endogeneity. Due to the varied results in determining endogeneity, a seemingly unrelated regression model was used which assumes all right hand side variables in the three demand equations were exogenous. A number of factors were significant in determining demand for natural gas including its own price, lagged demand, a number of structural break dummies, and trend, while oil indicate some substitutability with natural gas. An error correction model was used to examine the price relationships. Natural gas price was found not to have a significant cointegrating vector.

Myogenic expression of an injectable protease-resistant growth hormone-releasing hormone augments long-term growth in pigs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Draghia-Akli, R.; Fiorotto, M. L.; Hill, L. A.; Malone, P. B.; Deaver, D. R.; Schwartz, R. J.

1999-01-01

Ectopic expression of a new serum protease-resistant porcine growth hormone-releasing hormone, directed by an injectable muscle-specific synthetic promoter plasmid vector (pSP-HV-GHRH), elicits growth in pigs. A single 10 mg intramuscular injection of pSP-HV-GHRH DNA followed by electroporation in three-week-old piglets elevated serum GHRH levels by twofold to fourfold, enhanced growth hormone secretion, and increased serum insulin-like growth factor-I by threefold to sixfold over control pigs. After 65 days the average body weight of the pigs injected with pSP-HV-GHRH was approximately 37% greater than the placebo-injected controls and resulted in a significant reduction in serum urea concentration, indicating a decrease in amino acid catabolism. Evaluation of body composition indicated a uniform increase in mass, with no organomegaly or associated pathology.

Anxiety sensitivity among Cambodian refugees with panic disorder: A factor analytic investigation.

PubMed

Hinton, Devon E; Pich, Vuth; Safren, Steven A; Pollack, Mark H; McNally, Richard J

2006-01-01

Among Cambodian refugees with panic disorder (N = 208), we performed two factor analyses, one with the ASI, another with an Augmented ASI (consisting of the 16-item ASI supplemented with a 9-item addendum that assesses additional Cambodian concerns about anxiety-related sensations). The principal component analysis of the ASI yielded a 3-factor solution (I, "Weak Heart Concerns"; II, "Social Concerns"; III, "Control Concerns"); the Augmented ASI, a 4-factor solution: I, "Wind Attack Concerns"; II, "Weak Heart Concerns"; III, "Social Concerns"; and IV, "Control Concerns." The item clustering within the factor solution of both the ASI and Augmented ASI illustrates the role of cultural syndromes in generating fear of mental and bodily events.

Predictive Features of a Cockpit Traffic Display: A Workload Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, Christopher D.; Morphew, Ephimia

1997-01-01

Eighteen pilots flew a series of traffic avoidance maneuvers in an experiment designed to assess the support offered and workload imposed by different levels of traffic display information in a free flight simulation. Three display prototypes were compared which differed in traffic information provided. A BASELINE (BL) display provided current and (2nd order) predicted information regarding ownship and current information of an intruder aircraft, represented on lateral and vertical displays in a coplanar suite. An INTRUDER PREDICTOR (IP) display, augmented the baseline display by providing lateral and vertical prediction of the intruder aircraft. A THREAT VECTOR (TV) display added to the IP display a vector that indicates the direction from ownship to the intruder at the predicted point of closest contact (POCC). The length of the vector corresponds to the radius of the protected zone, and the distance of the intersection of the vector with ownship predictor, corresponds to the time available till POCC or loss of separation. Pilots time shared the traffic avoidance task with a secondary task requiring them to monitor the top of the display for faint targets. This task simulated the visual demands of out-of-cockpit scanning, and hence was used to estimate the head-down time required by the different display formats. The results revealed that both display augmentations improved performance (safety) as assessed by predicted and actual loss of separation (i.e., penetration of the protected zone). Both enhancements also reduced workload, as assessed by the NASA TLX scale. The intruder predictor display produced these benefits with no substantial impact on the qualitative nature of the avoidance maneuvers that were selected. The threat vector produced the safety benefits by inducing a greater degree of (effective) lateral maneuvering, thus partially offsetting the benefits of reduced workload. The three displays did not differ in terms of their effect on performance of the monitoring task, used to infer head-down time, nor in the extent of vertical or airspeed maneuvering. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for 19 cognitive engineering design features.

Optimization of autoregressive, exogenous inputs-based typhoon inundation forecasting models using a multi-objective genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Huei-Tau

2017-07-01

Three types of model for forecasting inundation levels during typhoons were optimized: the linear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (LARX), the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs with wavelet function (NLARX-W) and the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs with sigmoid function (NLARX-S). The forecast performance was evaluated by three indices: coefficient of efficiency, error in peak water level and relative time shift. Historical typhoon data were used to establish water-level forecasting models that satisfy all three objectives. A multi-objective genetic algorithm was employed to search for the Pareto-optimal model set that satisfies all three objectives and select the ideal models for the three indices. Findings showed that the optimized nonlinear models (NLARX-W and NLARX-S) outperformed the linear model (LARX). Among the nonlinear models, the optimized NLARX-W model achieved a more balanced performance on the three indices than the NLARX-S models and is recommended for inundation forecasting during typhoons.

Leishmania exosomes and other virulence factors: Impact on innate immune response and macrophage functions.

PubMed

Atayde, Vanessa Diniz; Hassani, Kasra; da Silva Lira Filho, Alonso; Borges, Andrezza Raposo; Adhikari, Anupam; Martel, Caroline; Olivier, Martin

2016-11-01

Leishmania parasites are the causative agents of the leishmaniases, a collection of vector-borne diseases that range from simple cutaneous to fatal visceral forms. Employing potent immune modulation mechanisms, Leishmania is able to render the host macrophage inactive and persist inside its phagolysosome. In the last few years, the role of exosomes in Leishmania-host interactions has been increasingly investigated. For instance, it was reported that Leishmania exosome release is augmented following temperature shift, a condition mimicking parasite's entry into its mammalian host. Leishmania exosomes were found to strongly affect macrophage cell signaling and functions, similarly to whole parasites. Importantly, these vesicles were shown to be pro-inflammatory, capable to recruit neutrophils at their inoculation site exacerbating the pathology. In this review, we provide the most recent insights on the role of exosomes and other virulence factors, especially the surface protease GP63, in Leishmania-host interactions, deepening our knowledge on leishmaniasis and paving the way for the development of new therapeutics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysing the accuracy of machine learning techniques to develop an integrated influent time series model: case study of a sewage treatment plant, Malaysia.

PubMed

Ansari, Mozafar; Othman, Faridah; Abunama, Taher; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2018-04-01

The function of a sewage treatment plant is to treat the sewage to acceptable standards before being discharged into the receiving waters. To design and operate such plants, it is necessary to measure and predict the influent flow rate. In this research, the influent flow rate of a sewage treatment plant (STP) was modelled and predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR) and support vector machine (SVM) regression time series algorithms. To evaluate the models' accuracy, the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) were calculated as initial assessment measures, while relative error (RE), peak flow criterion (PFC) and low flow criterion (LFC) were calculated as final evaluation measures to demonstrate the detailed accuracy of the selected models. An integrated model was developed based on the individual models' prediction ability for low, average and peak flow. An initial assessment of the results showed that the ARIMA model was the least accurate and the NAR model was the most accurate. The RE results also prove that the SVM model's frequency of errors above 10% or below - 10% was greater than the NAR model's. The influent was also forecasted up to 44 weeks ahead by both models. The graphical results indicate that the NAR model made better predictions than the SVM model. The final evaluation of NAR and SVM demonstrated that SVM made better predictions at peak flow and NAR fit well for low and average inflow ranges. The integrated model developed includes the NAR model for low and average influent and the SVM model for peak inflow.

Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: An analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ihueze, Chukwutoo C; Onwurah, Uchendu O

2018-03-01

One of the major problems in the world today is the rate of road traffic crashes and deaths on our roads. Majority of these deaths occur in low-and-middle income countries including Nigeria. This study analyzed road traffic crashes in Anambra State, Nigeria with the intention of developing accurate predictive models for forecasting crash frequency in the State using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) modelling techniques. The result showed that ARIMAX model outperformed the ARIMA (1,1,1) model generated when their performances were compared using the lower Bayesian information criterion, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error; and higher coefficient of determination (R-Squared) as accuracy measures. The findings of this study reveal that incorporating human, vehicle and environmental related factors in time series analysis of crash dataset produces a more robust predictive model than solely using aggregated crash count. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on road traffic safety and provides an approach to forecasting using many human, vehicle and environmental factors. The recommendations made in this study if applied will help in reducing the number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Emotional modulation of experimental pain: a source imaging study of laser evoked potentials

PubMed Central

Stancak, Andrej; Fallon, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Negative emotions have been shown to augment experimental pain. As induced emotions alter brain activity, it is not clear whether pain augmentation during noxious stimulation would be related to neural activation existing prior to onset of a noxious stimulus or alternatively, whether emotional stimuli would only alter neural activity during the period of nociceptive processing. We analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of laser evoked potentials (LEPs) occurring prior to and during the period of cortical processing of noxious laser stimuli during passive viewing of negative, positive, or neutral emotional pictures. Independent component analysis (ICA) was applied to series of source activation volumes, reconstructed using local autoregressive average model (LAURA). Pain was the strongest when laser stimuli were associated with negative emotional pictures. Prior to laser stimulus and during the first 100 ms after onset of laser stimulus, activations were seen in the left and right medial temporal cortex, cerebellum, posterior cingulate, and rostral cingulate/prefrontal cortex. In all these regions, positive or neutral pictures showed stronger activations than negative pictures. During laser stimulation, activations in the right and left anterior insula, temporal cortex and right anterior and posterior parietal cortex were stronger during negative than neutral or positive emotional pictures. Results suggest that negative emotional stimuli increase activation in the left and right anterior insula and temporal cortex, and right posterior and anterior parietal cortex only during the period of nociceptive processing. The role of background brain activation in emotional modulation of pain appears to be only permissive, and consisting in attenuation of activation in structures maintaining the resting state of the brain. PMID:24062659

Restless legs syndrome augmentation among Japanese patients receiving pramipexole therapy: Rate and risk factors in a retrospective study

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Masayoshi; Nishida, Shingo; Nakamura, Masaki; Kobayashi, Mina; Matsui, Kentaro; Ito, Eiki; Usui, Akira; Inoue, Yuichi

2017-01-01

To investigate the rate of and risk factors for restless legs syndrome (RLS) augmentation in Japanese patients receiving pramipexole (PPX) treatment. Records of 231 consecutive patients with idiopathic RLS who received PPX therapy for more than one month in a single sleep disorder center were analyzed retrospectively. Augmentation was diagnosed based on the Max Planck Institute criteria; associated factors were identified by logistic regression analysis. Mean age at PPX initiation was 60.6 ± 14.9 years and mean treatment duration was 48.5 ± 26.4 months. Augmentation was diagnosed in 21 patients (9.1%). Daily PPX dose and treatment duration were significantly associated with augmentation. By analyzing the receiver operating characteristic curve, a PPX dose of 0.375 mg/day was found to be the optimal cut-off value for predicting augmentation. After stratifying patients according to PPX treatment duration, at median treatment duration of 46 months, optimal cut-off values for daily doses were 0.375 and 0.500 mg/day for <46 months and ≥46 months of treatment, respectively. The RLS augmentation with PPX treatment in Japanese patients was occurred at rate of 9.1%, being quite compatible with previously reported rates in Caucasian patients. The symptom could appear within a relatively short period after starting the treatment in possibly vulnerable cases even with a smaller drug dose. Our results support the importance of keeping doses of PPX low throughout the RLS treatment course to prevent augmentation. PMID:28264052

Augmented GNSS Differential Corrections Minimum Mean Square Error Estimation Sensitivity to Spatial Correlation Modeling Errors

PubMed Central

Kassabian, Nazelie; Presti, Letizia Lo; Rispoli, Francesco

2014-01-01

Railway signaling is a safety system that has evolved over the last couple of centuries towards autonomous functionality. Recently, great effort is being devoted in this field, towards the use and exploitation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals and GNSS augmentation systems in view of lower railway track equipments and maintenance costs, that is a priority to sustain the investments for modernizing the local and regional lines most of which lack automatic train protection systems and are still manually operated. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) algorithm to modeling errors in the spatial correlation function that characterizes true pseudorange Differential Corrections (DCs). This study is inspired by the railway application; however, it applies to all transportation systems, including the road sector, that need to be complemented by an augmentation system in order to deliver accurate and reliable positioning with integrity specifications. A vector of noisy pseudorange DC measurements are simulated, assuming a Gauss-Markov model with a decay rate parameter inversely proportional to the correlation distance that exists between two points of a certain environment. The LMMSE algorithm is applied on this vector to estimate the true DC, and the estimation error is compared to the noise added during simulation. The results show that for large enough correlation distance to Reference Stations (RSs) distance separation ratio values, the LMMSE brings considerable advantage in terms of estimation error accuracy and precision. Conversely, the LMMSE algorithm may deteriorate the quality of the DC measurements whenever the ratio falls below a certain threshold. PMID:24922454

Spatial Dynamics and Determinants of County-Level Education Expenditure in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, Jiafeng

2012-01-01

In this paper, a multivariate spatial autoregressive model of local public education expenditure determination with autoregressive disturbance is developed and estimated. The existence of spatial interdependence is tested using Moran's I statistic and Lagrange multiplier test statistics for both the spatial error and spatial lag models. The full…

Spatial Autocorrelation And Autoregressive Models In Ecology

Treesearch

Jeremy W. Lichstein; Theodore R. Simons; Susan A. Shriner; Kathleen E. Franzreb

2003-01-01

Abstract. Recognition and analysis of spatial autocorrelation has defined a new paradigm in ecology. Attention to spatial pattern can lead to insights that would have been otherwise overlooked, while ignoring space may lead to false conclusions about ecological relationships. We used Gaussian spatial autoregressive models, fit with widely available...

Model-Based Clustering of Regression Time Series Data via APECM -- An AECM Algorithm Sung to an Even Faster Beat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Wei-Chen; Maitra, Ranjan

2011-01-01

We propose a model-based approach for clustering time series regression data in an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify groups under the assumption that each mixture component follows a Gaussian autoregressive regression model of order p. Given the number of groups, the traditional maximum likelihood approach of estimating the parameters using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be employed, although it is computationally demanding. The somewhat fast tune to the EM folk song provided by the Alternating Expectation Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm can alleviate the problem to some extent. In this article, we develop an alternative partial expectation conditional maximization algorithmmore » (APECM) that uses an additional data augmentation storage step to efficiently implement AECM for finite mixture models. Results on our simulation experiments show improved performance in both fewer numbers of iterations and computation time. The methodology is applied to the problem of clustering mutual funds data on the basis of their average annual per cent returns and in the presence of economic indicators.« less

Multiscale Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

good test 3 case to study the multiscale data assimilation capabilities of our GMM-DO filter. We also performed stochastic simulations with our DO...Morakot and internal tides. The ignorance score and Kullback - Leibler divergence were employed to measure the skill of the multiscale pdf forecasts...read off from the posterior of the augmented state vector. We implemented this new smoother and tested it using a 2D-in-space stochastic flow exiting

iPSC-Derived MSCs that Are Genetically Engineered for Systemic Bone Augmentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

cloned into a pJET1.2 vector (Fermentas, Glen Burnie, MD) and sequenced by MCLAB (San Francisco, CA). Karyotyping and G-banding. GTG -banding chromosome...publication [25]. Karyotyping and G-banding Giemsa ( GTG )-banding chromosome analysis was carried out in the LLU Radiation Research Laboratories. Standard...banding GTG -banding chromosome analysis was carried out in the LLU Radiation Research Laboratories. Standard DNA spectral karyo- typing procedures

A combined representation method for use in band structure calculations. 1: Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedli, C.; Ashcroft, N. W.

1975-01-01

A representation was described whose basis levels combine the important physical aspects of a finite set of plane waves with those of a set of Bloch tight-binding levels. The chosen combination has a particularly simple dependence on the wave vector within the Brillouin Zone, and its use in reducing the standard one-electron band structure problem to the usual secular equation has the advantage that the lattice sums involved in the calculation of the matrix elements are actually independent of the wave vector. For systems with complicated crystal structures, for which the Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker (KKR), Augmented-Plane Wave (APW) and Orthogonalized-Plane Wave (OPW) methods are difficult to apply, the present method leads to results with satisfactory accuracy and convergence.

Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Rood, Ente J J; Goris, Marga G A; Pijnacker, Roan; Bakker, Mirjam I; Hartskeerl, Rudy A

2017-01-01

Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995-2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Goris, Marga G. A.; Pijnacker, Roan; Bakker, Mirjam I.; Hartskeerl, Rudy A.

2017-01-01

Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995–2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas. PMID:29065186

Research on gesture recognition of augmented reality maintenance guiding system based on improved SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shouwei; Zhang, Yong; Zhou, Bin; Ma, Dongxi

2014-09-01

Interaction is one of the key techniques of augmented reality (AR) maintenance guiding system. Because of the complexity of the maintenance guiding system's image background and the high dimensionality of gesture characteristics, the whole process of gesture recognition can be divided into three stages which are gesture segmentation, gesture characteristic feature modeling and trick recognition. In segmentation stage, for solving the misrecognition of skin-like region, a segmentation algorithm combing background mode and skin color to preclude some skin-like regions is adopted. In gesture characteristic feature modeling of image attributes stage, plenty of characteristic features are analyzed and acquired, such as structure characteristics, Hu invariant moments features and Fourier descriptor. In trick recognition stage, a classifier based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) is introduced into the augmented reality maintenance guiding process. SVM is a novel learning method based on statistical learning theory, processing academic foundation and excellent learning ability, having a lot of issues in machine learning area and special advantages in dealing with small samples, non-linear pattern recognition at high dimension. The gesture recognition of augmented reality maintenance guiding system is realized by SVM after the granulation of all the characteristic features. The experimental results of the simulation of number gesture recognition and its application in augmented reality maintenance guiding system show that the real-time performance and robustness of gesture recognition of AR maintenance guiding system can be greatly enhanced by improved SVM.

Mathematical model with autoregressive process for electrocardiogram signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evaristo, Ronaldo M.; Batista, Antonio M.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Iarosz, Kelly C.; Szezech, José D., Jr.; Godoy, Moacir F. de

2018-04-01

The cardiovascular system is composed of the heart, blood and blood vessels. Regarding the heart, cardiac conditions are determined by the electrocardiogram, that is a noninvasive medical procedure. In this work, we propose autoregressive process in a mathematical model based on coupled differential equations in order to obtain the tachograms and the electrocardiogram signals of young adults with normal heartbeats. Our results are compared with experimental tachogram by means of Poincaré plot and dentrended fluctuation analysis. We verify that the results from the model with autoregressive process show good agreement with experimental measures from tachogram generated by electrical activity of the heartbeat. With the tachogram we build the electrocardiogram by means of coupled differential equations.

Functional MRI and Multivariate Autoregressive Models

PubMed Central

Rogers, Baxter P.; Katwal, Santosh B.; Morgan, Victoria L.; Asplund, Christopher L.; Gore, John C.

2010-01-01

Connectivity refers to the relationships that exist between different regions of the brain. In the context of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), it implies a quantifiable relationship between hemodynamic signals from different regions. One aspect of this relationship is the existence of small timing differences in the signals in different regions. Delays of 100 ms or less may be measured with fMRI, and these may reflect important aspects of the manner in which brain circuits respond as well as the overall functional organization of the brain. The multivariate autoregressive time series model has features to recommend it for measuring these delays, and is straightforward to apply to hemodynamic data. In this review, we describe the current usage of the multivariate autoregressive model for fMRI, discuss the issues that arise when it is applied to hemodynamic time series, and consider several extensions. Connectivity measures like Granger causality that are based on the autoregressive model do not always reflect true neuronal connectivity; however, we conclude that careful experimental design could make this methodology quite useful in extending the information obtainable using fMRI. PMID:20444566

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-09-26

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

Conceptual Design of a 100kW Energy Integrated Type Bi-Directional Tidal Current Turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ki Pyoung; Ahmed, M. Rafiuddin; Lee, Young Ho

2010-06-01

The development of a tidal current turbine that can extract maximum energy from the tidal current will be extremely beneficial for supplying continuous electric power. The present paper presents a conceptual design of a 100kW energy integrated type tidal current turbine for tidal power generation. The instantaneous power density of a flowing fluid incident on an underwater turbine is proportional to the cubic power of current velocity which is approximately 2.5m/s. A cross-flow turbine, provided with a nozzle and a diffuser, is designed and analyzed. The potential advantages of ducted and diffuser-augmented turbines were taken into consideration in order to achieve higher output at a relatively low speed. This study looks at a cross-flow turbine system which is placed in an augmentation channel to generate electricity bi-directionally. The compatibility of this turbine system is verified using a commercial CFD code, ANSYSCFX. This paper presents the results of the numerical analysis in terms of pressure, streaklines, velocity vectors and performance curves for energy integrated type bi-directional tidal current turbine (BDT) with augmentation.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search: Motivation & Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caceres, Gabriel; Feigelson, Eric; Jogesh Babu, G.; Bahamonde, Natalia; Bertin, Karine; Christen, Alejandra; Curé, Michel; Meza, Cristian

2015-08-01

The Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS) project uses statistical methodology associated with autoregressive (AR) processes to model Kepler lightcurves in order to improve exoplanet transit detection in systems with high stellar variability. We also introduce a planet-search algorithm to detect transits in time-series residuals after application of the AR models. One of the main obstacles in detecting faint planetary transits is the intrinsic stellar variability of the host star. The variability displayed by many stars may have autoregressive properties, wherein later flux values are correlated with previous ones in some manner. Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models, Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and related models are flexible, phenomenological methods used with great success to model stochastic temporal behaviors in many fields of study, particularly econometrics. Powerful statistical methods are implemented in the public statistical software environment R and its many packages. Modeling involves maximum likelihood fitting, model selection, and residual analysis. These techniques provide a useful framework to model stellar variability and are used in KARPS with the objective of reducing stellar noise to enhance opportunities to find as-yet-undiscovered planets. Our analysis procedure consisting of three steps: pre-processing of the data to remove discontinuities, gaps and outliers; ARMA-type model selection and fitting; and transit signal search of the residuals using a new Transit Comb Filter (TCF) that replaces traditional box-finding algorithms. We apply the procedures to simulated Kepler-like time series with known stellar and planetary signals to evaluate the effectiveness of the KARPS procedures. The ARMA-type modeling is effective at reducing stellar noise, but also reduces and transforms the transit signal into ingress/egress spikes. A periodogram based on the TCF is constructed to concentrate the signal of these periodic spikes. When a periodic transit is found, the model is displayed on a standard period-folded averaged light curve. We also illustrate the efficient coding in R.

Simulation development and evaluation of an improved longitudinal velocity vector control wheel steering mode and electronic display format

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinmetz, G. G.

1980-01-01

Using simulation, an improved longitudinal velocity vector control wheel steering mode and an improved electronic display format for an advanced flight system were developed and tested. Guidelines for the development phase were provided by test pilot critique summaries of the previous system. The results include performances from computer generated step column inputs across the full airplane speed and configuration envelope, as well as piloted performance results taken from a reference line tracking task and an approach to landing task conducted under various environmental conditions. The analysis of the results for the reference line tracking and approach to landing tasks indicates clearly detectable improvement in pilot tracking accuracy with a reduction in physical workload. The original objectives of upgrading the longitudinal axis of the velocity vector control wheel steering mode were successfully met when measured against the test pilot critique summaries and the original purpose outlined for this type of augment control mode.

Fluorescent tagged episomals for stoichiometric induced pluripotent stem cell reprogramming.

PubMed

Schmitt, Christopher E; Morales, Blanca M; Schmitz, Ellen M H; Hawkins, John S; Lizama, Carlos O; Zape, Joan P; Hsiao, Edward C; Zovein, Ann C

2017-06-05

Non-integrating episomal vectors have become an important tool for induced pluripotent stem cell reprogramming. The episomal vectors carrying the "Yamanaka reprogramming factors" (Oct4, Klf, Sox2, and L-Myc + Lin28) are critical tools for non-integrating reprogramming of cells to a pluripotent state. However, the reprogramming process remains highly stochastic, and is hampered by an inability to easily identify clones that carry the episomal vectors. We modified the original set of vectors to express spectrally separable fluorescent proteins to allow for enrichment of transfected cells. The vectors were then tested against the standard original vectors for reprogramming efficiency and for the ability to enrich for stoichiometric ratios of factors. The reengineered vectors allow for cell sorting based on reprogramming factor expression. We show that these vectors can assist in tracking episomal expression in individual cells and can select the reprogramming factor dosage. Together, these modified vectors are a useful tool for understanding the reprogramming process and improving induced pluripotent stem cell isolation efficiency.

The effects of weekly augmentation therapy in patients with PiZZ α1-antitrypsin deficiency

PubMed Central

Schmid, ST; Koepke, J; Dresel, M; Hattesohl, A; Frenzel, E; Perez, J; Lomas, DA; Miranda, E; Greulich, T; Noeske, S; Wencker, M; Teschler, H; Vogelmeier, C; Janciauskiene, S; Koczulla, AR

2012-01-01

Background The major concept behind augmentation therapy with human α1-antitrypsin (AAT) is to raise the levels of AAT in patients with protease inhibitor phenotype ZZ (Glu342Lys)-inherited AAT deficiency and to protect lung tissues from proteolysis and progression of emphysema. Objective To evaluate the short-term effects of augmentation therapy (Prolastin®) on plasma levels of AAT, C-reactive protein, and chemokines/cytokines. Materials and methods Serum and exhaled breath condensate were collected from individuals with protease inhibitor phenotype ZZ AAT deficiency-related emphysema (n = 12) on the first, third, and seventh day after the infusion of intravenous Prolastin. Concentrations of total and polymeric AAT, interleukin-8 (IL-8), monocyte chemotactic protein-1, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, vascular endothelial growth factor, and C-reactive protein were determined. Blood neutrophils and primary epithelial cells were also exposed to Prolastin (1 mg/mL). Results There were significant fluctuations in serum (but not in exhaled breath condensate) levels of AAT polymers, IL-8, monocyte chemotactic protein-1, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, and vascular endothelial growth factor within a week of augmentation therapy. In general, augmented individuals had higher AAT and lower serum levels of IL-8 than nonaugmented subjects. Prolastin added for 3 hours to neutrophils from protease inhibitor phenotype ZZ individuals in vitro reduced IL-8 release but showed no effect on cytokine/chemokine release from human bronchial epithelial cells. Conclusion Within a week, augmentation with Prolastin induced fluctuations in serum levels of AAT polymers and cytokine/chemokines but specifically lowered IL-8 levels. It remains to be determined whether these effects are related to the Prolastin preparation per se or to the therapeutic efficacy of augmentation with AAT. PMID:23055718

Augmentation of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-dependent neuronal cell death by acidosis.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Li, Xiaoling; Kwansa, Herman; Kim, Yun Tai; Yi, Liye; Hong, Gina; Andrabi, Shaida A; Dawson, Valina L; Dawson, Ted M; Koehler, Raymond C; Yang, Zeng-Jin

2017-06-01

Tissue acidosis is a key component of cerebral ischemic injury, but its influence on cell death signaling pathways is not well defined. One such pathway is parthanatos, in which oxidative damage to DNA results in activation of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase and generation of poly(ADP-ribose) polymers that trigger release of mitochondrial apoptosis-inducing factor. In primary neuronal cultures, we first investigated whether acidosis per sé is capable of augmenting parthanatos signaling initiated pharmacologically with the DNA alkylating agent, N-methyl- N'-nitro- N-nitrosoguanidine. Exposure of neurons to medium at pH 6.2 for 4 h after N-methyl- N'-nitro- N-nitrosoguanidine washout increased intracellular calcium and augmented the N-methyl- N'-nitro- N-nitrosoguanidine-evoked increase in poly(ADP-ribose) polymers, nuclear apoptosis-inducing factor , and cell death. The augmented nuclear apoptosis-inducing factor and cell death were blocked by the acid-sensitive ion channel-1a inhibitor, psalmotoxin. In vivo, acute hyperglycemia during transient focal cerebral ischemia augmented tissue acidosis, poly(ADP-ribose) polymers formation, and nuclear apoptosis-inducing factor , which was attenuated by a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor. Infarct volume from hyperglycemic ischemia was decreased in poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase 1-null mice. Collectively, these results demonstrate that acidosis can directly amplify neuronal parthanatos in the absence of ischemia through acid-sensitive ion channel-1a . The results further support parthanatos as one of the mechanisms by which ischemia-associated tissue acidosis augments cell death.

Current procedures of the integrated urban vector-mosquito control as an example in Cotonou (Benin, West Africa) and Wrocław area (Poland).

PubMed

Rydzanicz, Katarzyna; Lonc, Elzbieta; Becker, Norbert

2009-01-01

Current strategy of Integrated Vector Management (IVM) comprises the general approach of environmentally friendly control measures. With regard to mosquitoes it includes first of all application of microbial insecticides based on Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) and B. sphaericus (Bs) delta-endotoxins as well as the reduction of breeding habitats and natural enemy augmentation. It can be achieved thorough implementation of the interdisciplinary program, i. e., understanding of mosquito vector ecology, the appropriate vector-diseases (e. g., malariometric) measurements and training of local personnel responsible for mosquito abatement activities, as well as community involvement. Biocontrol methods as an alternative to chemical insecticides result from the sustainability development concept, growing awareness of environmental pollution and the development of insecticide-resistant strains of vector-mosquito populations in many parts of the world. Although sustainable trends are usually considered in terms of the monetary and training resources within countries, environmental concerns are actually more limiting factors for the duration of an otherwise successful vector control effort. In order to meet these new needs, increasing efforts have been made in search of and application of natural enemies, such as parasites, bacterial pathogens and predators which may control populations of insect vectors. The biological control agent based on the bacterial toxins Bti and Bs has been used in the Wrocław's University and Municipal Mosquito Control Programs since 1998. In West-Africa biocontrol appears to be an effective and safe tool to combat malaria in addition to bed-nets, residual indoor spraying and appropriate diagnosis and treatment of malaria parasites which are the major tools in the WHO Roll Back Malaria Program. IVM studies carried out 2005-2008 in Cotonou (Benin) as well those in Wrocław Irrigated Fields during the last years include the following major steps: 1. Mapping of all breeding sites in the project area and recording data in a geographical information system (GIS/relational database). All districts, streets and houses are numbered for quick reference during the operation; 2. Studying mosquito vector bionomics, migration and vectorial capacity in the project area, before, during and after the routine Bti treatments; 3. Assessment of the optimum for effective larvicide insecticide dosages at major breeding sites against the different target mosquito species; 4. Implementation of the microbial control agents in the integrated routine program. Adaptation of the application equipment to the local situation, training of the field staff, and routine treatments; 5. Conducting surveillance of vector-disease (e. g., malariometric) parameters in the control and experimental area before, during, and after the application of biocontrol agents.

A Multilevel AR(1) Model: Allowing for Inter-Individual Differences in Trait-Scores, Inertia, and Innovation Variance.

PubMed

Jongerling, Joran; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Hamaker, Ellen L

2015-01-01

In this article we consider a multilevel first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] model with random intercepts, random autoregression, and random innovation variance (i.e., the level 1 residual variance). Including random innovation variance is an important extension of the multilevel AR(1) model for two reasons. First, between-person differences in innovation variance are important from a substantive point of view, in that they capture differences in sensitivity and/or exposure to unmeasured internal and external factors that influence the process. Second, using simulation methods we show that modeling the innovation variance as fixed across individuals, when it should be modeled as a random effect, leads to biased parameter estimates. Additionally, we use simulation methods to compare maximum likelihood estimation to Bayesian estimation of the multilevel AR(1) model and investigate the trade-off between the number of individuals and the number of time points. We provide an empirical illustration by applying the extended multilevel AR(1) model to daily positive affect ratings from 89 married women over the course of 42 consecutive days.

Vertical ridge augmentation using an equine bone and collagen block infused with recombinant human platelet-derived growth factor-BB: a randomized single-masked histologic study in non-human primates.

PubMed

Nevins, Myron; Al Hezaimi, Khalid; Schupbach, Peter; Karimbux, Nadeem; Kim, David M

2012-07-01

This study tests the effectiveness of hydroxyapatite and collagen bone blocks of equine origin (eHAC), infused with recombinant human platelet-derived growth factor-BB (rhPDGF-BB), to augment localized posterior mandibular defects in non-human primates (Papio hamadryas). Bilateral critical-sized defects simulating severe atrophy were created at the time of the posterior teeth extraction. Test and control blocks (without growth factor) were randomly grafted into the respective sites in each non-human primate. All sites exhibited vertical ridge augmentation, with physiologic hard- and soft-tissue integration of the blocks when clinical and histologic examinations were done at 4 months after the vertical ridge augmentation procedure. There was a clear, although non-significant, tendency to increased regeneration in the test sites. As in the first two preclinical studies in this series using canines, experimental eHAC blocks infused with rhPDGF-BB proved to be a predictable and technically viable method to predictably regenerate bone and soft tissue in critical-sized defects. This investigation supplies additional evidence that eHAC blocks infused with rhPDGF-BB growth factor is a predictable and technically feasible option for vertical augmentation of severely resorbed ridges.

A New Approach to Attitude Stability and Control for Low Airspeed Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, K. B.; Shin, Y-Y.; Moerder, D. D.; Cooper, E. G.

2004-01-01

This paper describes an approach for controlling the attitude of statically unstable thrust-levitated vehicles in hover or slow translation. The large thrust vector that characterizes such vehicles can be modulated to provide control forces and moments to the airframe, but such modulation is accompanied by significant unsteady flow effects. These effects are difficult to model, and can compromise the practical value of thrust vectoring in closed-loop attitude stability, even if the thrust vectoring machinery has sufficient bandwidth for stabilization. The stabilization approach described in this paper is based on using internal angular momentum transfer devices for stability, augmented by thrust vectoring for trim and other "outer loop" control functions. The three main components of this approach are: (1) a z-body axis angular momentum bias enhances static attitude stability, reducing the amount of control activity needed for stabilization, (2) optionally, gimbaled reaction wheels provide high-bandwidth control torques for additional stabilization, or agility, and (3) the resulting strongly coupled system dynamics are controlled by a multivariable controller. A flight test vehicle is described, and nonlinear simulation results are provided that demonstrate the efficiency of the approach.

Vista/F-16 Multi-Axis Thrust Vectoring (MATV) control law design and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwerneman, W. D.; Eller, B. G.

1994-01-01

For the Multi-Axis Thrust Vectoring (MATV) program, a new control law was developed using multi-axis thrust vectoring to augment the aircraft's aerodynamic control power to provide maneuverability above the normal F-16 angle of attack limit. The control law architecture was developed using Lockheed Fort Worth's offline and piloted simulation capabilities. The final flight control laws were used in flight test to demonstrate tactical benefits gained by using thrust vectoring in air-to-air combat. Differences between the simulator aerodynamics data base and the actual aircraft aerodynamics led to significantly different lateral-directional flying qualities during the flight test program than those identified during piloted simulation. A 'dial-a-gain' flight test control law update was performed in the middle of the flight test program. This approach allowed for inflight optimization of the aircraft's flying qualities. While this approach is not preferred over updating the simulator aerodynamic data base and then updating the control laws, the final selected gain set did provide adequate lateral-directional flying qualities over the MATV flight envelope. The resulting handling qualities and the departure resistance of the aircraft allowed the 422nd_squadron pilots to focus entirely on evaluating the aircraft's tactical utility.

The application of parameter estimation to flight measurements to obtain lateral-directional stability derivatives of an augmented jet-flap STOL airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephenson, J. D.

1983-01-01

Flight experiments with an augmented jet flap STOL aircraft provided data from which the lateral directional stability and control derivatives were calculated by applying a linear regression parameter estimation procedure. The tests, which were conducted with the jet flaps set at a 65 deg deflection, covered a large range of angles of attack and engine power settings. The effect of changing the angle of the jet thrust vector was also investigated. Test results are compared with stability derivatives that had been predicted. The roll damping derived from the tests was significantly larger than had been predicted, whereas the other derivatives were generally in agreement with the predictions. Results obtained using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure are compared with those from the linear regression solutions.

Diffusion of Lexical Change in Social Media

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, Jacob; O'Connor, Brendan; Smith, Noah A.; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

Computer-mediated communication is driving fundamental changes in the nature of written language. We investigate these changes by statistical analysis of a dataset comprising 107 million Twitter messages (authored by 2.7 million unique user accounts). Using a latent vector autoregressive model to aggregate across thousands of words, we identify high-level patterns in diffusion of linguistic change over the United States. Our model is robust to unpredictable changes in Twitter's sampling rate, and provides a probabilistic characterization of the relationship of macro-scale linguistic influence to a set of demographic and geographic predictors. The results of this analysis offer support for prior arguments that focus on geographical proximity and population size. However, demographic similarity – especially with regard to race – plays an even more central role, as cities with similar racial demographics are far more likely to share linguistic influence. Rather than moving towards a single unified “netspeak” dialect, language evolution in computer-mediated communication reproduces existing fault lines in spoken American English. PMID:25409166

Vibration-based damage detection in a concrete beam under temperature variations using AR models and state-space approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, A.; Laurens, S.

2011-07-01

The Structural Health Monitoring of civil structures subjected to ambient vibrations is very challenging. Indeed, the variations of environmental conditions and the difficulty to characterize the excitation make the damage detection a hard task. Auto-regressive (AR) models coefficients are often used as damage sensitive feature. The presented work proposes a comparison of the AR approach with a state-space feature formed by the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical process. Since the detection of damage can be formulated as a novelty detection problem, Mahalanobis distance is applied to track new points from an undamaged reference collection of feature vectors. Data from a concrete beam subjected to temperature variations and damaged by several static loading are analyzed. It is observed that the damage sensitive features are effectively sensitive to temperature variations. However, the use of the Mahalanobis distance makes possible the detection of cracking with both of them. Early damage (before cracking) is only revealed by the AR coefficients with a good sensibility.

Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis of Asian stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qizhen; Zhu, Yingming; Yang, Liansheng; Mul, Remco A. H.

2017-04-01

This paper uses the coupling detrended fluctuation analysis (CDFA) method to investigate the multifractal characteristics of four Asian stock markets using three stock indices: stock price returns, trading volumes and the composite index. The results show that coupled correlations exist among the four stock markets and the coupled correlations have multifractal characteristics. We then use the chi square (χ2) test to identify the sources of multifractality. For the different stock indices, the contributions of a single series to multifractality are different. In other words, the contributions of each country to coupled correlations are different. The comparative analysis shows that the research on the combine effect of stock price returns and trading volumes may be more comprehensive than on an individual index. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data with the residual errors of the vector autoregression (VAR) model, we find that the VAR model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the coupled correlations among four financial time series.

Artificial bee colony algorithm for single-trial electroencephalogram analysis.

PubMed

Hsu, Wei-Yen; Hu, Ya-Ping

2015-04-01

In this study, we propose an analysis system combined with feature selection to further improve the classification accuracy of single-trial electroencephalogram (EEG) data. Acquiring event-related brain potential data from the sensorimotor cortices, the system comprises artifact and background noise removal, feature extraction, feature selection, and feature classification. First, the artifacts and background noise are removed automatically by means of independent component analysis and surface Laplacian filter, respectively. Several potential features, such as band power, autoregressive model, and coherence and phase-locking value, are then extracted for subsequent classification. Next, artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is used to select features from the aforementioned feature combination. Finally, selected subfeatures are classified by support vector machine. Comparing with and without artifact removal and feature selection, using a genetic algorithm on single-trial EEG data for 6 subjects, the results indicate that the proposed system is promising and suitable for brain-computer interface applications. © EEG and Clinical Neuroscience Society (ECNS) 2014.

Shape classification of malignant lymphomas and leukemia by morphological watersheds and ARMA modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celenk, Mehmet; Song, Yinglei; Ma, Limin; Zhou, Min

2003-05-01

A new algorithm that can be used to automatically recognize and classify malignant lymphomas and lukemia is proposed in this paper. The algorithm utilizes the morphological watershed to extract boundaries of cells from their grey-level images. It generates a sequence of Euclidean distances by selecting pixels in clockwise direction on the boundary of the cell and calculating the Euclidean distances of the selected pixels from the centroid of the cell. A feature vector associated with each cell is then obtained by applying the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model to the generated sequence of Euclidean distances. The clustering measure J3=trace{inverse(Sw-1)Sm} involving the within (Sw) and mixed (Sm) class-scattering matrices is computed for both cell classes to provide an insight into the extent to which different cell classes in the training data are separated. Our test results suggest that the algorithm is highly accurate for the development of an interactive, computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) tool.

Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Young, Alistair A.; Li, Xiaosong

2014-01-01

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. PMID:24505382

State space model approach for forecasting the use of electrical energy (a case study on: PT. PLN (Persero) district of Kroya)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniati, Devi; Hoyyi, Abdul; Widiharih, Tatik

2018-05-01

Time series data is a series of data taken or measured based on observations at the same time interval. Time series data analysis is used to perform data analysis considering the effect of time. The purpose of time series analysis is to know the characteristics and patterns of a data and predict a data value in some future period based on data in the past. One of the forecasting methods used for time series data is the state space model. This study discusses the modeling and forecasting of electric energy consumption using the state space model for univariate data. The modeling stage is began with optimal Autoregressive (AR) order selection, determination of state vector through canonical correlation analysis, estimation of parameter, and forecasting. The result of this research shows that modeling of electric energy consumption using state space model of order 4 with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value 3.655%, so the model is very good forecasting category.

Software sensors for biomass concentration in a SSC process using artificial neural networks and support vector machine.

PubMed

Acuña, Gonzalo; Ramirez, Cristian; Curilem, Millaray

2014-01-01

The lack of sensors for some relevant state variables in fermentation processes can be coped by developing appropriate software sensors. In this work, NARX-ANN, NARMAX-ANN, NARX-SVM and NARMAX-SVM models are compared when acting as software sensors of biomass concentration for a solid substrate cultivation (SSC) process. Results show that NARMAX-SVM outperforms the other models with an SMAPE index under 9 for a 20 % amplitude noise. In addition, NARMAX models perform better than NARX models under the same noise conditions because of their better predictive capabilities as they include prediction errors as inputs. In the case of perturbation of initial conditions of the autoregressive variable, NARX models exhibited better convergence capabilities. This work also confirms that a difficult to measure variable, like biomass concentration, can be estimated on-line from easy to measure variables like CO₂ and O₂ using an adequate software sensor based on computational intelligence techniques.

Using a generalized additive model with autoregressive terms to study the effects of daily temperature on mortality.

PubMed

Yang, Lei; Qin, Guoyou; Zhao, Naiqing; Wang, Chunfang; Song, Guixiang

2012-10-30

Generalized Additive Model (GAM) provides a flexible and effective technique for modelling nonlinear time-series in studies of the health effects of environmental factors. However, GAM assumes that errors are mutually independent, while time series can be correlated in adjacent time points. Here, a GAM with Autoregressive terms (GAMAR) is introduced to fill this gap. Parameters in GAMAR are estimated by maximum partial likelihood using modified Newton's method, and the difference between GAM and GAMAR is demonstrated using two simulation studies and a real data example. GAMM is also compared to GAMAR in simulation study 1. In the simulation studies, the bias of the mean estimates from GAM and GAMAR are similar but GAMAR has better coverage and smaller relative error. While the results from GAMM are similar to GAMAR, the estimation procedure of GAMM is much slower than GAMAR. In the case study, the Pearson residuals from the GAM are correlated, while those from GAMAR are quite close to white noise. In addition, the estimates of the temperature effects are different between GAM and GAMAR. GAMAR incorporates both explanatory variables and AR terms so it can quantify the nonlinear impact of environmental factors on health outcome as well as the serial correlation between the observations. It can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiological studies.

Using a generalized additive model with autoregressive terms to study the effects of daily temperature on mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Generalized Additive Model (GAM) provides a flexible and effective technique for modelling nonlinear time-series in studies of the health effects of environmental factors. However, GAM assumes that errors are mutually independent, while time series can be correlated in adjacent time points. Here, a GAM with Autoregressive terms (GAMAR) is introduced to fill this gap. Methods Parameters in GAMAR are estimated by maximum partial likelihood using modified Newton’s method, and the difference between GAM and GAMAR is demonstrated using two simulation studies and a real data example. GAMM is also compared to GAMAR in simulation study 1. Results In the simulation studies, the bias of the mean estimates from GAM and GAMAR are similar but GAMAR has better coverage and smaller relative error. While the results from GAMM are similar to GAMAR, the estimation procedure of GAMM is much slower than GAMAR. In the case study, the Pearson residuals from the GAM are correlated, while those from GAMAR are quite close to white noise. In addition, the estimates of the temperature effects are different between GAM and GAMAR. Conclusions GAMAR incorporates both explanatory variables and AR terms so it can quantify the nonlinear impact of environmental factors on health outcome as well as the serial correlation between the observations. It can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiological studies. PMID:23110601

Centrifuges in gravitational physiology research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballard, Rodney W.; Davies, Phil; Fuller, Charles A.

1993-01-01

Data from space flight and ground based experiments have clearly demonstrated the importance of Earth gravity for normal physiological function in man and animals. Gravitational Physiology is concerned with the role and influence of gravity on physiological systems. Research in this field examines how we perceive and respond to gravity and the mechanisms underlying these responses. Inherent in our search for answers to these questions is the ability to alter gravity, which is not physically possible without leaving Earth. However, useful experimental paradigms have been to modify the perceived force of gravity by changing either the orientation of subjects to the gravity vector (i.e., postural changes) or by applying inertial forces to augment the magnitude of the gravity vector. The later technique has commonly been used by applying centripetal force via centrifugation.

An avian cell line designed for production of highly attenuated viruses.

PubMed

Jordan, Ingo; Vos, Ad; Beilfuss, Stefanie; Neubert, Andreas; Breul, Sabine; Sandig, Volker

2009-01-29

Several viral vaccines, including highly promising vectors such as modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA), are produced on chicken embryo fibroblasts. Dependence on primary cells complicates production especially in large vaccination programs. With primary cells it is also not possible to create packaging lines for replication-deficient vectors that are adapted to proliferation in an avian host. To obviate requirement for primary cells permanent lines from specific tissues of muscovy duck were derived (AGE1.CR, CS, and CA) and further modified: we demonstrate that stable expression of the structural gene pIX from human adenovirus increases titers for unrelated poxvirus in the avian cells. This augmentation appears to be mediated via induction of heat shock and thus provides a novel cellular substrate that may allow further attenuation of vaccine strains.

Augmented Reality Trends in Education: A Systematic Review of Research and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bacca, Jorge; Baldiris, Silvia; Fabregat, Ramon; Graf, Sabine; Kinshuk

2014-01-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in applying Augmented Reality (AR) to create unique educational settings. So far, however, there is a lack of review studies with focus on investigating factors such as: the uses, advantages, limitations, effectiveness, challenges and features of augmented reality in educational settings.…

The Performance of Multilevel Growth Curve Models under an Autoregressive Moving Average Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Daniel L.; Pituch, Keenan A.

2009-01-01

The authors examined the robustness of multilevel linear growth curve modeling to misspecification of an autoregressive moving average process. As previous research has shown (J. Ferron, R. Dailey, & Q. Yi, 2002; O. Kwok, S. G. West, & S. B. Green, 2007; S. Sivo, X. Fan, & L. Witta, 2005), estimates of the fixed effects were unbiased, and Type I…

Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

2016-01-01

The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

Time to burn: Modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry

2005-01-01

Six Poisson autoregressive models of order p [PAR(p)] of daily wildland arson ignition counts are estimated for five locations in Florida (1994-2001). In addition, a fixed effects time-series Poisson model of annual arson counts is estimated for all Florida counties (1995-2001). PAR(p) model estimates reveal highly significant arson ignition autocorrelation, lasting up...

Theoretical results on fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Sílvia R. C.; Prass, Taiane S.

2014-05-01

Here we present a theoretical study on the main properties of Fractionally Integrated Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) processes. We analyze the conditions for the existence, the invertibility, the stationarity and the ergodicity of these processes. We prove that, if { is a FIEGARCH(p,d,q) process then, under mild conditions, { is an ARFIMA(q,d,0) with correlated innovations, that is, an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process. The convergence order for the polynomial coefficients that describes the volatility is presented and results related to the spectral representation and to the covariance structure of both processes { and { are discussed. Expressions for the kurtosis and the asymmetry measures for any stationary FIEGARCH(p,d,q) process are also derived. The h-step ahead forecast for the processes {, { and { are given with their respective mean square error of forecast. The work also presents a Monte Carlo simulation study showing how to generate, estimate and forecast based on six different FIEGARCH models. The forecasting performance of six models belonging to the class of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models (namely, ARCH-type models) and radial basis models is compared through an empirical application to Brazilian stock market exchange index.

Concepts in Gene Therapy for Cartilage Repair

PubMed Central

Steinert, Andre F.; Nöth, Ulrich; Tuan, Rocky S.

2009-01-01

Summary Once articular cartilage is injured, it has a very limited capacity for self-repair. Although current surgical therapeutic procedures to cartilage repair are clinically useful, they cannot restore a normal articular surface. Current research offers a growing number of bioactive reagents, including proteins and nucleic acids, that may be used to augment different aspects of the repair process. As these agents are difficult to administer effectively, gene transfer approaches are being developed to provide their sustained synthesis at sites of repair. To augment regeneration of articular cartilage, therapeutic genes can be delivered to the synovium, or directly to the cartilage lesion. Gene delivery to the cells of the synovial lining is generally considered more suitable for chondroprotective approaches, based on the expression of anti-inflammatory mediators. Gene transfer targeted to cartilage defects can be achieved by either direct vector administration to cells located at or surrounding the defects, or by transplantation of genetically modified chondrogenic cells into the defect. Several studies have shown that exogenous cDNAs encoding growth factors can be delivered locally to sites of cartilage damage, where they are expressed at therapeutically relevant levels. Furthermore, data is beginning to emerge indicating, that efficient delivery and expression of these genes is capable of influencing a repair response toward the synthesis of a more hyaline cartilage repair tissue in vivo. This review presents the current status of gene therapy for cartilage healing and highlights some of the remaining challenges. PMID:18313477

Augmented macrophage differentiation and polarization of tumor-associated macrophages towards M1 subtype in listeria-administered tumor-bearing host.

PubMed

Rai, Rakesh K; Vishvakarma, Naveen K; Mohapatra, Tribhuban M; Singh, Sukh Mahendra

2012-09-01

This study investigates the effect of Listeria administration on differentiation of macrophages from precursor bone marrow cells and functional status of tumor-associated macrophages (TAM). Listeria administration not only resulted in an augmented infiltration of tumor by F4/80 macrophages but also repolarized the functional status of TAM displaying features of some M1 macrophage subtype with upregulated phagocytosis and tumoricidal activity accompanied by altered expression of monocarboxylate transporter-1, toll-like receptor-2, surface markers: CD11c, interleukin-2 receptor, CD62L, and secreted molecules: nitric oxide, interleukin (IL)-1, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, and vascular endothelial growth factor. Declined tumor cell survival and modulated repertoire of cytokines: interferon-γ, IL-6, IL-10, and transforming growth factor-β in tumor microenvironment indicated their role in polarization of TAM towards proinflammatory state. Bone marrow cell of Listeria-administered tumor-bearing mice showed augmented survival, declined expression of p53 upregulated modulator of apoptosis with an upregulated differentiation into activation responsive bone marrow-derived macrophages along with altered expression of macrophage-colony stimulating factor, macrophage-colony stimulating factor receptor, and granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor receptor. These findings indicate that Listeria infection is associated with an augmented differentiation of macrophages accompanied by tumoricidal activation of TAM.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

Trans-dimensional joint inversion of seabed scattering and reflection data.

PubMed

Steininger, Gavin; Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W

2013-03-01

This paper examines joint inversion of acoustic scattering and reflection data to resolve seabed interface roughness parameters (spectral strength, exponent, and cutoff) and geoacoustic profiles. Trans-dimensional (trans-D) Bayesian sampling is applied with both the number of sediment layers and the order (zeroth or first) of auto-regressive parameters in the error model treated as unknowns. A prior distribution that allows fluid sediment layers over an elastic basement in a trans-D inversion is derived and implemented. Three cases are considered: Scattering-only inversion, joint scattering and reflection inversion, and joint inversion with the trans-D auto-regressive error model. Including reflection data improves the resolution of scattering and geoacoustic parameters. The trans-D auto-regressive model further improves scattering resolution and correctly differentiates between strongly and weakly correlated residual errors.

Vector Autoregressive Models and Granger Causality in Time Series Analysis in Nursing Research: Dynamic Changes Among Vital Signs Prior to Cardiorespiratory Instability Events as an Example.

PubMed

Bose, Eliezer; Hravnak, Marilyn; Sereika, Susan M

Patients undergoing continuous vital sign monitoring (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], pulse oximetry [SpO2]) in real time display interrelated vital sign changes during situations of physiological stress. Patterns in this physiological cross-talk could portend impending cardiorespiratory instability (CRI). Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with Granger causality tests is one of the most flexible ways to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms in time series data. The purpose of this article is to illustrate the development of patient-specific VAR models using vital sign time series data in a sample of acutely ill, monitored, step-down unit patients and determine their Granger causal dynamics prior to onset of an incident CRI. CRI was defined as vital signs beyond stipulated normality thresholds (HR = 40-140/minute, RR = 8-36/minute, SpO2 < 85%) and persisting for 3 minutes within a 5-minute moving window (60% of the duration of the window). A 6-hour time segment prior to onset of first CRI was chosen for time series modeling in 20 patients using a six-step procedure: (a) the uniform time series for each vital sign was assessed for stationarity, (b) appropriate lag was determined using a lag-length selection criteria, (c) the VAR model was constructed, (d) residual autocorrelation was assessed with the Lagrange Multiplier test, (e) stability of the VAR system was checked, and (f) Granger causality was evaluated in the final stable model. The primary cause of incident CRI was low SpO2 (60% of cases), followed by out-of-range RR (30%) and HR (10%). Granger causality testing revealed that change in RR caused change in HR (21%; i.e., RR changed before HR changed) more often than change in HR causing change in RR (15%). Similarly, changes in RR caused changes in SpO2 (15%) more often than changes in SpO2 caused changes in RR (9%). For HR and SpO2, changes in HR causing changes in SpO2 and changes in SpO2 causing changes in HR occurred with equal frequency (18%). Within this sample of acutely ill patients who experienced a CRI event, VAR modeling indicated that RR changes tend to occur before changes in HR and SpO2. These findings suggest that contextual assessment of RR changes as the earliest sign of CRI is warranted. Use of VAR modeling may be helpful in other nursing research applications based on time series data.

Development of advanced Navier-Stokes solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan

1994-01-01

The objective of research was to develop and validate new computational algorithms for solving the steady and unsteady Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The end-products are new three-dimensional Euler and Navier-Stokes codes that are faster, more reliable, more accurate, and easier to use. The three-dimensional Euler and full/thin-layer Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for compressible/incompressible flows are solved on structured hexahedral grids. The Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model is used for closure. The space discretization is based on a cell-centered finite-volume method augmented by a variety of numerical dissipation models with optional total variation diminishing limiters. The governing equations are integrated in time by an implicit method based on lower-upper factorization and symmetric Gauss-Seidel relaxation. The algorithm is vectorized on diagonal planes of sweep using two-dimensional indices in three dimensions. Convergence rates and the robustness of the codes are enhanced by the use of an implicit full approximation storage multigrid method.

Effects of a Velocity-Vector Based Command Augmentation System and Synthetic Vision System Terrain Portrayal and Guidance Symbology Concepts on Single-Pilot Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Dahai; Goodrich, Kenneth H.; Peak, Bob

2010-01-01

This study investigated the effects of synthetic vision system (SVS) concepts and advanced flight controls on the performance of pilots flying a light, single-engine general aviation airplane. We evaluated the effects and interactions of two levels of terrain portrayal, guidance symbology, and flight control response type on pilot performance during the conduct of a relatively complex instrument approach procedure. The terrain and guidance presentations were evaluated as elements of an integrated primary flight display system. The approach procedure used in the study included a steeply descending, curved segment as might be encountered in emerging, required navigation performance (RNP) based procedures. Pilot performance measures consisted of flight technical performance, perceived workload, perceived situational awareness and subjective preference. The results revealed that an elevation based generic terrain portrayal significantly improved perceived situation awareness without adversely affecting flight technical performance or workload. Other factors (pilot instrument rating, control response type, and guidance symbology) were not found to significantly affect the performance measures.

Low-Back Biomechanics and Static Stability During Isometric Pushing

PubMed Central

Granata, Kevin P.; Bennett, Bradford C.

2006-01-01

Pushing and pulling tasks are increasingly prevalent in industrial workplaces. Few studies have investigated low-back biomechanical risk factors associated with pushing, and we are aware of none that has quantified spinal stability during pushing exertions. Data recorded from 11 healthy participants performing isometric pushing exertions demonstrated that trunk posture, vector force direction of the applied load, and trunk moment were influenced (p < .01) by exertion level, elevation of the handle for the pushing task, and foot position. A biomechanical model was used to analyze the posture and hand force data gathered from the pushing exertions. Model results indicate that pushing exertions provide significantly (p < .01) less stability than lifting when antagonistic cocontraction is ignored. However, stability can be augmented by recruitment of muscle cocontraction. Results suggest that cocontraction may be recruited to compensate for the fact that equilibrium mechanics provide little intrinsic trunk stiffness and stability during pushing exertions. If one maintains stability by means of cocontraction, additional spinal load is thereby created, increasing the risk of overload injury. Thus it is important to consider muscle cocontraction when evaluating the biomechanics of pushing exertions. Potential applications of this research include improved assessment of biomechanical risk factors for the design of industrial pushing tasks. PMID:16435695

Texture classification using autoregressive filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawton, W. M.; Lee, M.

1984-01-01

A general theory of image texture models is proposed and its applicability to the problem of scene segmentation using texture classification is discussed. An algorithm, based on half-plane autoregressive filtering, which optimally utilizes second order statistics to discriminate between texture classes represented by arbitrary wide sense stationary random fields is described. Empirical results of applying this algorithm to natural and sysnthesized scenes are presented and future research is outlined.

Linear landmark extraction in SAR images with application to augmented integrity aero-navigation: an overview to a novel processing chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabbrini, L.; Messina, M.; Greco, M.; Pinelli, G.

2011-10-01

In the context of augmented integrity Inertial Navigation System (INS), recent technological developments have been focusing on landmark extraction from high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in order to retrieve aircraft position and attitude. The article puts forward a processing chain that can automatically detect linear landmarks on highresolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and can be successfully exploited also in the context of augmented integrity INS. The processing chain uses constant false alarm rate (CFAR) edge detectors as the first step of the whole processing procedure. Our studies confirm that the ratio of averages (RoA) edge detector detects object boundaries more effectively than Student T-test and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW) test. Nevertheless, all these statistical edge detectors are sensitive to violation of the assumptions which underlie their theory. In addition to presenting a solution to the previous problem, we put forward a new post-processing algorithm useful to remove the main false alarms, to select the most probable edge position, to reconstruct broken edges and finally to vectorize them. SAR images from the "MSTAR clutter" dataset were used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

A flight investigation of the stability, control, and handling qualities of an augmented jet flap STOL airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vomaske, R. F.; Innis, R. C.; Swan, B. E.; Grossmith, S. W.

1978-01-01

The stability, control, and handling qualities of an augmented jet flap STOL airplane are presented. The airplane is an extensively modified de Havilland Buffalo military transport. The modified airplane has two fan-jet engines which provide vectorable thrust and compressed air for the augmentor jet flap and Boundary-Layer Control (BLC). The augmentor and BLC air is cross ducted to minimize asymmetric moments produced when one engine is inoperative. The modifications incorporated in the airplane include a Stability Augmentation System (SAS), a powered elevator, and a powered lateral control system. The test gross weight of the airplane was between 165,000 and 209,000 N (37,000 and 47,000 lb). Stability, control, and handling qualities are presented for the airspeed range of 40 to 180 knots. The lateral-directional handling qualities are considered satisfactory for the normal operating range of 65 to 160 knots airspeed when the SAS is functioning. With the SAS inoperative, poor turn coordination and spiral instability are primary deficiencies contributing to marginal handling qualities in the landing approach. The powered elevator control system enhanced the controllability in pitch, particularly in the landing flare and stall recovery.

Augmented superfield approach to gauge-invariant massive 2-form theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R.; Krishna, S.

2017-06-01

We discuss the complete sets of the off-shell nilpotent (i.e. s^2_{(a)b} = 0) and absolutely anticommuting (i.e. s_b s_{ab} + s_{ab} s_b = 0) Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin (BRST) (s_b) and anti-BRST (s_{ab}) symmetries for the (3+1)-dimensional (4D) gauge-invariant massive 2-form theory within the framework of an augmented superfield approach to the BRST formalism. In this formalism, we obtain the coupled (but equivalent) Lagrangian densities which respect both BRST and anti-BRST symmetries on the constrained hypersurface defined by the Curci-Ferrari type conditions. The absolute anticommutativity property of the (anti-) BRST transformations (and corresponding generators) is ensured by the existence of the Curci-Ferrari type conditions which emerge very naturally in this formalism. Furthermore, the gauge-invariant restriction plays a decisive role in deriving the proper (anti-) BRST transformations for the Stückelberg-like vector field.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unseren, M.A.

A general framework for solving the dynamic load distribution when two manipulators hold a rigid object is proposed. The underspecified problem of solving for the contact forces and torques based on the object`s equations of motion is transformed into a well specified problem. This is accomplished by augmenting the object`s equations of motion with additional equations which relate a new vector variable quantifying the internal contact force and torque degrees of freedom (DOF) as a linear function of the contact forces and torques. The resulting augmented system yields a well specified solution for the contact forces and torques in whichmore » they are separated into their motion inducing and internal components. A particular solution is suggested which enables the designer to conveniently specify what portion of the payload`s mass each manipulator is to bear. It is also shown that the results of the previous work are just a special case of the general load distribution framework described here.« less

Automatic differentiation for Fourier series and the radii polynomial approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Mireles James, J. D.; Ransford, Julian

2016-11-01

In this work we develop a computer-assisted technique for proving existence of periodic solutions of nonlinear differential equations with non-polynomial nonlinearities. We exploit ideas from the theory of automatic differentiation in order to formulate an augmented polynomial system. We compute a numerical Fourier expansion of the periodic orbit for the augmented system, and prove the existence of a true solution nearby using an a-posteriori validation scheme (the radii polynomial approach). The problems considered here are given in terms of locally analytic vector fields (i.e. the field is analytic in a neighborhood of the periodic orbit) hence the computer-assisted proofs are formulated in a Banach space of sequences satisfying a geometric decay condition. In order to illustrate the use and utility of these ideas we implement a number of computer-assisted existence proofs for periodic orbits of the Planar Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (PCRTBP).

Longitudinal handling qualities during approach and landing of a powered lift STOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franklin, J. A.; Innis, R. C.

1972-01-01

Longitudinal handling qualities evaluations were conducted on the Ames Research Center Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft (FSAA) for the approach and landing tasks of a powered lift STOL research aircraft. The test vehicle was a C-8A aircraft modified with a new wing incorporating internal blowing over an augmentor flap. The investigation included: (1) use of various flight path and airspeed control techniques for the basic vehicle; (2) assessment of stability and command augmentation schemes for pitch attitude and airspeed control; (3) determination of the influence of longitudinal and vertical force coupling for the power control; (4) determination of the influence of pitch axis coupling with the thrust vector control; and (5) evaluations of the contribution of stability and command augmentation to recovery from a single engine failure. Results are presented in the form of pilot ratings and commentary substantiated by landing approach time histories.

Efficient Exact Inference With Loss Augmented Objective in Structured Learning.

PubMed

Bauer, Alexander; Nakajima, Shinichi; Muller, Klaus-Robert

2016-08-19

Structural support vector machine (SVM) is an elegant approach for building complex and accurate models with structured outputs. However, its applicability relies on the availability of efficient inference algorithms--the state-of-the-art training algorithms repeatedly perform inference to compute a subgradient or to find the most violating configuration. In this paper, we propose an exact inference algorithm for maximizing nondecomposable objectives due to special type of a high-order potential having a decomposable internal structure. As an important application, our method covers the loss augmented inference, which enables the slack and margin scaling formulations of structural SVM with a variety of dissimilarity measures, e.g., Hamming loss, precision and recall, Fβ-loss, intersection over union, and many other functions that can be efficiently computed from the contingency table. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach in natural language parsing and sequence segmentation applications.

Using Trait-State Models to Evaluate the Longitudinal Consistency of Global Self-Esteem From Adolescence to Adulthood.

PubMed

Donnellan, M Brent; Kenny, David A; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Lucas, Richard E; Conger, Rand D

2012-12-01

The present research used a latent variable trait-state model to evaluate the longitudinal consistency of self-esteem during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Analyses were based on ten administrations of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale (Rosenberg, 1965) spanning the ages of approximately 13 to 32 for a sample of 451 participants. Results indicated that a completely stable trait factor and an autoregressive trait factor accounted for the majority of the variance in latent self-esteem assessments, whereas state factors accounted for about 16% of the variance in repeated assessments of latent self-esteem. The stability of individual differences in self-esteem increased with age consistent with the cumulative continuity principle of personality development.

Using Trait-State Models to Evaluate the Longitudinal Consistency of Global Self-Esteem From Adolescence to Adulthood

PubMed Central

Donnellan, M. Brent; Kenny, David A.; Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Lucas, Richard E.; Conger, Rand D.

2012-01-01

The present research used a latent variable trait-state model to evaluate the longitudinal consistency of self-esteem during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Analyses were based on ten administrations of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale (Rosenberg, 1965) spanning the ages of approximately 13 to 32 for a sample of 451 participants. Results indicated that a completely stable trait factor and an autoregressive trait factor accounted for the majority of the variance in latent self-esteem assessments, whereas state factors accounted for about 16% of the variance in repeated assessments of latent self-esteem. The stability of individual differences in self-esteem increased with age consistent with the cumulative continuity principle of personality development. PMID:23180899

Fractal and chaotic laws on seismic dissipated energy in an energy system of engineering structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yu-Hong; Nie, Yong-An; Yan, Zong-Da; Wu, Guo-You

1998-09-01

Fractal and chaotic laws of engineering structures are discussed in this paper, it means that the intrinsic essences and laws on dynamic systems which are made from seismic dissipated energy intensity E d and intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e are analyzed. Based on the intrinsic characters of chaotic and fractal dynamic system of E d and I e, three kinds of approximate dynamic models are rebuilt one by one: index autoregressive model, threshold autoregressive model and local-approximate autoregressive model. The innate laws, essences and systematic error of evolutional behavior I e are explained over all, the short-term behavior predictability and long-term behavior probability of which are analyzed in the end. That may be valuable for earthquake-resistant theory and analysis method in practical engineering structures.

Insulated Foamy Viral Vectors

PubMed Central

Browning, Diana L.; Collins, Casey P.; Hocum, Jonah D.; Leap, David J.; Rae, Dustin T.; Trobridge, Grant D.

2016-01-01

Retroviral vector-mediated gene therapy is promising, but genotoxicity has limited its use in the clinic. Genotoxicity is highly dependent on the retroviral vector used, and foamy viral (FV) vectors appear relatively safe. However, internal promoters may still potentially activate nearby genes. We developed insulated FV vectors, using four previously described insulators: a version of the well-studied chicken hypersensitivity site 4 insulator (650cHS4), two synthetic CCCTC-binding factor (CTCF)-based insulators, and an insulator based on the CCAAT box-binding transcription factor/nuclear factor I (7xCTF/NF1). We directly compared these insulators for enhancer-blocking activity, effect on FV vector titer, and fidelity of transfer to both proviral long terminal repeats. The synthetic CTCF-based insulators had the strongest insulating activity, but reduced titers significantly. The 7xCTF/NF1 insulator did not reduce titers but had weak insulating activity. The 650cHS4-insulated FV vector was identified as the overall most promising vector. Uninsulated and 650cHS4-insulated FV vectors were both significantly less genotoxic than gammaretroviral vectors. Integration sites were evaluated in cord blood CD34+ cells and the 650cHS4-insulated FV vector had fewer hotspots compared with an uninsulated FV vector. These data suggest that insulated FV vectors are promising for hematopoietic stem cell gene therapy. PMID:26715244

Propagation of hollow Gaussian beam through a misaligned first-order optical system and its propagation properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Cheng Liang; Lu, Xuan Hui

2007-06-01

Propagation properties of hollow Gaussian beam through a misaligned first-order ABCD system is studied using the generalized Huygens-Fresnel diffraction integral, augmented matrix. It is shown that, as a hollow Gaussian beam passes through the misaligned first-order ABCD system, the beam shape is not preserved, the out-put beams have differences when passing different misaligned optical systems. We can adjust the size of dark region through adjusting the misaligned transverse vector E.

Hovering Dual-Spin Vehicle Groundwork for Bias Momentum Sizing Validation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothhaar, Paul M.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Lim, Kyong B.

2008-01-01

Angular bias momentum offers significant stability augmentation for hovering flight vehicles. The reliance of the vehicle on thrust vectoring for agility and disturbance rejection is greatly reduced with significant levels of stored angular momentum in the system. A methodical procedure for bias momentum sizing has been developed in previous studies. This current study provides groundwork for experimental validation of that method using an experimental vehicle called the Dual-Spin Test Device, a thrust-levitated platform. Using measured data the vehicle's thrust vectoring units are modeled and a gust environment is designed and characterized. Control design is discussed. Preliminary experimental results of the vehicle constrained to three rotational degrees of freedom are compared to simulation for a case containing no bias momentum to validate the simulation. A simulation of a bias momentum dominant case is presented.

Approaches to utilize mesenchymal progenitor cells as cellular vehicles.

PubMed

Pereboeva, L; Komarova, S; Mikheeva, G; Krasnykh, V; Curiel, D T

2003-01-01

Mammalian cells represent a novel vector approach for gene delivery that overcomes major drawbacks of viral and nonviral vectors and couples cell therapy with gene delivery. A variety of cell types have been tested in this regard, confirming that the ideal cellular vector system for ex vivo gene therapy has to comply with stringent criteria and is yet to be found. Several properties of mesenchymal progenitor cells (MPCs), such as easy access and simple isolation and propagation procedures, make these cells attractive candidates as cellular vehicles. In the current work, we evaluated the potential utility of MPCs as cellular vectors with the intent to use them in the cancer therapy context. When conventional adenoviral (Ad) vectors were used for MPC transduction, the highest transduction efficiency of MPCs was 40%. We demonstrated that Ad primary-binding receptors were poorly expressed on MPCs, while the secondary Ad receptors and integrins presented in sufficient amounts. By employing Ad vectors with incorporated integrin-binding motifs (Ad5lucRGD), MPC transduction was augmented tenfold, achieving efficient genetic loading of MPCs with reporter and anticancer genes. MPCs expressing thymidine kinase were able to exert a bystander killing effect on the cancer cell line SKOV3ip1 in vitro. In addition, we found that MPCs were able to support Ad replication, and thus can be used as cell vectors to deliver oncolytic viruses. Our results show that MPCs can foster expression of suicide genes or support replication of adenoviruses as potential anticancer therapeutic payloads. These findings are consistent with the concept that MPCs possess key properties that ensure their employment as cellular vehicles and can be used to deliver either therapeutic genes or viruses to tumor sites.

Growth/differentiation factor-5: pre-clinical and clinical evaluations of periodontal regeneration and alveolar augmentation--review.

PubMed

Lee, Jaebum; Wikesjö, Ulf M E

2014-08-01

Growth/differentiation factor-5 (GDF-5) plays critical roles in mesenchymal cell differentiation and stimulates human periodontal ligament cell proliferation. Potentially, GDF-5 may also play roles in wound healing including periodontal regeneration and alveolar augmentation. The objective of this review was to provide up-to-date information from pre-clinical/clinical studies evaluating GDF-5 for these indications. A comprehensive search using PubMed and Google search engines was conducted to identify reports on GDF-5 applied to periodontal and alveolar indications. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts from a total of 479 reports. Full-length articles of 17 pre-clinical and four clinical studies were selected and reviewed. Canine-, porcine- and non-human primate-based models as well as human clinical trials were used in the evaluation of GDF-5 in support of periodontal regeneration and alveolar augmentation. An absorbable collagen sponge (ACS), β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) and a poly(lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) were evaluated as candidate carriers for GDF-5 using various dose and healing intervals demonstrating significantly enhanced periodontal regeneration/alveolar augmentation including cementum, periodontal ligament and alveolar bone with limited, if any, adverse effects. Growth/differentiation factor-5 supports periodontal regeneration/alveolar augmentation without aberrant healing events documented in qualified pre-clinical models and clinical pilot studies. In perspective, GDF-5 appears a promising technology for periodontal regeneration/alveolar augmentation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Brillouin Scattering Spectrum Analysis Based on Auto-Regressive Spectral Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mengyun; Li, Wei; Liu, Zhangyun; Cheng, Linghao; Guan, Bai-Ou

2018-06-01

Auto-regressive (AR) spectral estimation technology is proposed to analyze the Brillouin scattering spectrum in Brillouin optical time-domain refelectometry. It shows that AR based method can reliably estimate the Brillouin frequency shift with an accuracy much better than fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods provided the data length is not too short. It enables about 3 times improvement over FFT at a moderate spatial resolution.

Hedonic price models with omitted variables and measurement errors: a constrained autoregression-structural equation modeling approach with application to urban Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparman, Yusep; Folmer, Henk; Oud, Johan H. L.

2014-01-01

Omitted variables and measurement errors in explanatory variables frequently occur in hedonic price models. Ignoring these problems leads to biased estimators. In this paper, we develop a constrained autoregression-structural equation model (ASEM) to handle both types of problems. Standard panel data models to handle omitted variables bias are based on the assumption that the omitted variables are time-invariant. ASEM allows handling of both time-varying and time-invariant omitted variables by constrained autoregression. In the case of measurement error, standard approaches require additional external information which is usually difficult to obtain. ASEM exploits the fact that panel data are repeatedly measured which allows decomposing the variance of a variable into the true variance and the variance due to measurement error. We apply ASEM to estimate a hedonic housing model for urban Indonesia. To get insight into the consequences of measurement error and omitted variables, we compare the ASEM estimates with the outcomes of (1) a standard SEM, which does not account for omitted variables, (2) a constrained autoregression model, which does not account for measurement error, and (3) a fixed effects hedonic model, which ignores measurement error and time-varying omitted variables. The differences between the ASEM estimates and the outcomes of the three alternative approaches are substantial.

Motivational factors and psychological processes in cosmetic breast augmentation surgery.

PubMed

Solvi, Anette S; Foss, Kaja; von Soest, Tilmann; Roald, Helge E; Skolleborg, Knut C; Holte, Arne

2010-04-01

We investigated how and why prospective cosmetic breast augmentation patients decide to undergo such surgery. The results can offer important insights to plastic surgeons in addressing their patients' motives and expectations, and thereby avoiding potential patient dissatisfaction and disappointment. It is also a necessary first step to better understand the increasing tendency among women in the Western society to seek cosmetic breast augmentation. A qualitative, descriptive and phenomenological design was employed. Fourteen female prospective breast augmentation patients, aged 19-46 years, were recruited from a private plastic surgery clinic and interviewed in depth based on an informant-centred format. The interviews were tape-recorded, transcribed verbatim and coded and analysed phenomenologically using a QSR-N*Vivo software program. We detected four psychological processes associated with cosmetic breast augmentation surgery (create, improve, repair and restore). The data could further be categorised into one basic drive (femininity), six generating factors (appearance dissatisfaction, ideal figure, self-esteem, comments, clothes and sexuality) and five eliciting factors motivating the decision (media, knowledge of former patients, physicians, finances and romantic partner). These new insights into how and why women seek cosmetic breast augmentation may aid plastic surgeons in enhancing their communication with patients. This can be achieved by addressing the patient's psychological process and motives, and thereby better assist them in making the best decision possible in their particular situation. It may also lay the groundwork for future quantitative studies on the prevalence of certain motives for undergoing such surgery and, as such, help explain the increasing popularity of cosmetic breast-augmentation surgery. Copyright 2009 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical stretch augments insulin-induced vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation by insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Gang; Department of Anesthesiology, First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang; Hitomi, Hirofumi, E-mail: hitomi@kms.ac.jp

Insulin resistance and hypertension have been implicated in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease; however, little is known about the roles of insulin and mechanical force in vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) remodeling. We investigated the contribution of mechanical stretch to insulin-induced VSMC proliferation. Thymidine incorporation was stimulated by insulin in stretched VSMCs, but not in un-stretched VSMCs. Insulin increased 2-deoxy-glucose incorporation in both stretched and un-stretched VSMCs. Mechanical stretch augmented insulin-induced extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and Akt phosphorylation. Inhibitors of epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor tyrosine kinase and Src attenuated insulin-induced ERK and Akt phosphorylation, as well as thymidine incorporation,more » whereas 2-deoxy-glucose incorporation was not affected by these inhibitors. Moreover, stretch augmented insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 receptor expression, although it did not alter the expression of insulin receptor and insulin receptor substrate-1. Insulin-induced ERK and Akt activation, and thymidine incorporation were inhibited by siRNA for the IGF-1 receptor. Mechanical stretch augments insulin-induced VSMC proliferation via upregulation of IGF-1 receptor, and downstream Src/EGF receptor-mediated ERK and Akt activation. Similar to in vitro experiment, IGF-1 receptor expression was also augmented in hypertensive rats. These results provide a basis for clarifying the molecular mechanisms of vascular remodeling in hypertensive patients with hyperinsulinemia. -- Highlights: {yields} Mechanical stretch augments insulin-induced VSMC proliferation via IGF-1 receptor. {yields} Src/EGFR-mediated ERK and Akt phosphorylation are augmented in stretched VSMCs. {yields} Similar to in vitro experiment, IGF-1 receptor is increased in hypertensive rats. {yields} Results provide possible mechanisms of vascular remodeling in hypertension with DM.« less

A recombinant fusion protein and DNA vaccines against foot-and-mouth disease virus type Asia 1 infection in guinea pigs.

PubMed

Zhang, Q; Zhu, M W; Yang, Y Q; Shao, M; Zhang, Z Y; Lan, H Y; Yan, W Y; Wu, J J; Zheng, Z X

2003-01-01

On the basis of amino acid (aa) sequence of the tandem repeat 133-158-20-34-133-158 which consisted of aa 133-158 of VP1 and aa 20-34 of VP4 of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type Asia 1 a recombinant prokaryotic expression vector pAS1-P encoding a fusion protein and eukaryotic expression vectors pAS1-E and pAS1-EdeltaCpG-ODN representing DNA vaccines were constructed. Guinea pigs immunized with these vaccines showed both neutralizing antibody and T cell proliferation responses. FMDV challenge tests for the first time showed that the recombinant fusion protein and pAS1-E and pAS1-EdeltaCpG-ODN vaccines protected 86%, 60% and 43% of guinea pigs from FMDV type Asia1 challenge, respectively. The results also indicated that the immune response of animals treated with the vector pAS1-E containing an oligodeoxynucleotide (ODN), which consisted of immunostimulatory cytosine-phosphate-guanosine (CpG) motifs, was augmented by CpG ODN.

Clifford support vector machines for classification, regression, and recurrence.

PubMed

Bayro-Corrochano, Eduardo Jose; Arana-Daniel, Nancy

2010-11-01

This paper introduces the Clifford support vector machines (CSVM) as a generalization of the real and complex-valued support vector machines using the Clifford geometric algebra. In this framework, we handle the design of kernels involving the Clifford or geometric product. In this approach, one redefines the optimization variables as multivectors. This allows us to have a multivector as output. Therefore, we can represent multiple classes according to the dimension of the geometric algebra in which we work. We show that one can apply CSVM for classification and regression and also to build a recurrent CSVM. The CSVM is an attractive approach for the multiple input multiple output processing of high-dimensional geometric entities. We carried out comparisons between CSVM and the current approaches to solve multiclass classification and regression. We also study the performance of the recurrent CSVM with experiments involving time series. The authors believe that this paper can be of great use for researchers and practitioners interested in multiclass hypercomplex computing, particularly for applications in complex and quaternion signal and image processing, satellite control, neurocomputation, pattern recognition, computer vision, augmented virtual reality, robotics, and humanoids.

Augmented renal clearance is not a risk factor for mortality in Enterobacteriaceae bloodstream infections treated with appropriate empiric antimicrobials.

PubMed

Burnham, Jason P; Micek, Scott T; Kollef, Marin H

2017-01-01

The main objective of the study was to assess whether augmented renal clearance was a risk factor for mortality in a cohort of patients with Enterobacteriaceae sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock that all received appropriate antimicrobial therapy within 12 hours. Using a retrospective cohort from Barnes-Jewish Hospital, a 1,250-bed teaching hospital, we collected data on individuals with Enterobacteriaceae sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock who received appropriate initial antimicrobial therapy between June 2009 and December 2013. Clinical outcomes were compared according to renal clearance, as assessed by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formulas, sepsis classification, demographics, severity of illness, and comorbidities. We identified 510 patients with Enterobacteriaceae bacteremia and sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock. Sixty-seven patients (13.1%) were nonsurvivors. Augmented renal clearance was uncommon (5.1% of patients by MDRD and 3.0% by CKD-EPI) and was not associated with increased mortality. Our results are limited by the absence of prospective determination of augmented renal clearance. However, in this small cohort, augmented renal clearance as assessed by MDRD and CKD-EPI does not seem to be a risk factor for mortality in patients with Enterobacteriaceae sepsis. Future studies should assess this finding prospectively.

Repeated vertebral augmentation for new vertebral compression fractures of postvertebral augmentation patients: a nationwide cohort study

PubMed Central

Liang, Cheng-Loong; Wang, Hao-Kwan; Syu, Fei-Kai; Wang, Kuo-Wei; Lu, Kang; Liliang, Po-Chou

2015-01-01

Purpose Postvertebral augmentation vertebral compression fractures are common; repeated vertebral augmentation is usually performed for prompt pain relief. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of repeat vertebral augmentation. Methods We performed a retrospective, nationwide, population-based longitudinal observation study, using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan. All patients who received vertebral augmentation for vertebral compression fractures were evaluated. The collected data included patient characteristics (demographics, comorbidities, and medication exposure) and repeat vertebral augmentation. Kaplan–Meier and stratified Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed for analyses. Results The overall incidence of repeat vertebral augmentation was 11.3% during the follow-up until 2010. Patients with the following characteristics were at greater risk for repeat vertebral augmentation: female sex (AOR=1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10–2.36), advanced age (AOR=1.60; 95% CI: 1.32–2.08), diabetes mellitus (AOR=4.31; 95% CI: 4.05–5.88), cerebrovascular disease (AOR=4.09; 95% CI: 3.44–5.76), dementia (AOR=1.97; 95% CI: 1.69–2.33), blindness or low vision (AOR=3.72; 95% CI: 2.32–3.95), hypertension (AOR=2.58; 95% CI: 2.35–3.47), and hyperlipidemia (AOR=2.09; 95% CI: 1.67–2.22). Patients taking calcium/vitamin D (AOR=2.98; 95% CI: 1.83–3.93), bisphosphonates (AOR=2.11; 95% CI: 1.26–2.61), or calcitonin (AOR=4.59; 95% CI: 3.40–5.77) were less likely to undergo repeat vertebral augmentation; however, those taking steroids (AOR=7.28; 95% CI: 6.32–8.08), acetaminophen (AOR=3.54; 95% CI: 2.75–4.83), or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (AOR=6.14; 95% CI: 5.08–7.41) were more likely to undergo repeat vertebral augmentation. Conclusion We conclude that the incidence of repeat vertebral augmentation is rather high. An understanding of risk factors predicting repeat vertebral augmentation provides valuable basis to improve health care for geriatric populations. PMID:25848240

Development and human factors analysis of neuronavigation vs. augmented reality.

PubMed

Pandya, Abhilash; Siadat, Mohammad-Reza; Auner, Greg; Kalash, Mohammad; Ellis, R Darin

2004-01-01

This paper is focused on the human factors analysis comparing a standard neuronavigation system with an augmented reality system. We use a passive articulated arm (Microscribe, Immersion technology) to track a calibrated end-effector mounted video camera. In real time, we superimpose the live video view with the synchronized graphical view of CT-derived segmented object(s) of interest within a phantom skull. Using the same robotic arm, we have developed a neuronavigation system able to show the end-effector of the arm on orthogonal CT scans. Both the AR and the neuronavigation systems have been shown to be within 3mm of accuracy. A human factors study was conducted in which subjects were asked to draw craniotomies and answer questions to gage their understanding of the phantom objects. The human factors study included 21 subjects and indicated that the subjects performed faster, with more accuracy and less errors using the Augmented Reality interface.

Quantitative analysis of eyes and other optical systems in linear optics.

PubMed

Harris, William F; Evans, Tanya; van Gool, Radboud D

2017-05-01

To show that 14-dimensional spaces of augmented point P and angle Q characteristics, matrices obtained from the ray transference, are suitable for quantitative analysis although only the latter define an inner-product space and only on it can one define distances and angles. The paper examines the nature of the spaces and their relationships to other spaces including symmetric dioptric power space. The paper makes use of linear optics, a three-dimensional generalization of Gaussian optics. Symmetric 2 × 2 dioptric power matrices F define a three-dimensional inner-product space which provides a sound basis for quantitative analysis (calculation of changes, arithmetic means, etc.) of refractive errors and thin systems. For general systems the optical character is defined by the dimensionally-heterogeneous 4 × 4 symplectic matrix S, the transference, or if explicit allowance is made for heterocentricity, the 5 × 5 augmented symplectic matrix T. Ordinary quantitative analysis cannot be performed on them because matrices of neither of these types constitute vector spaces. Suitable transformations have been proposed but because the transforms are dimensionally heterogeneous the spaces are not naturally inner-product spaces. The paper obtains 14-dimensional spaces of augmented point P and angle Q characteristics. The 14-dimensional space defined by the augmented angle characteristics Q is dimensionally homogenous and an inner-product space. A 10-dimensional subspace of the space of augmented point characteristics P is also an inner-product space. The spaces are suitable for quantitative analysis of the optical character of eyes and many other systems. Distances and angles can be defined in the inner-product spaces. The optical systems may have multiple separated astigmatic and decentred refracting elements. © 2017 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2017 The College of Optometrists.

Granger causality revisited

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

2014-01-01

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

Damage localization of marine risers using time series of vibration signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hao; Yang, Hezhen; Liu, Fushun

2014-10-01

Based on dynamic response signals a damage detection algorithm is developed for marine risers. Damage detection methods based on numerous modal properties have encountered issues in the researches in offshore oil community. For example, significant increase in structure mass due to marine plant/animal growth and changes in modal properties by equipment noise are not the result of damage for riser structures. In an attempt to eliminate the need to determine modal parameters, a data-based method is developed. The implementation of the method requires that vibration data are first standardized to remove the influence of different loading conditions and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used to fit vibration response signals. In addition, a damage feature factor is introduced based on the autoregressive (AR) parameters. After that, the Euclidean distance between ARMA models is subtracted as a damage indicator for damage detection and localization and a top tensioned riser simulation model with different damage scenarios is analyzed using the proposed method with dynamic acceleration responses of a marine riser as sensor data. Finally, the influence of measured noise is analyzed. According to the damage localization results, the proposed method provides accurate damage locations of risers and is robust to overcome noise effect.

Dengue Vectors and their Spatial Distribution

PubMed Central

Higa, Yukiko

2011-01-01

The distribution of dengue vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, is affected by climatic factors. In addition, since their life cycles are well adapted to the human environment, environmental changes resulting from human activity such as urbanization exert a great impact on vector distribution. The different responses of Ae. aegypti and Ae albopictus to various environments result in a difference in spatial distribution along north-south and urban-rural gradients, and between the indoors and outdoors. In the north-south gradient, climate associated with survival is an important factor in spatial distribution. In the urban-rural gradient, different distribution reflects a difference in adult niches and is modified by geographic and human factors. The direct response of the two species to the environment around houses is related to different spatial distribution indoors and outdoors. Dengue viruses circulate mainly between human and vector mosquitoes, and the vector presence is a limiting factor of transmission. Therefore, spatial distribution of dengue vectors is a significant concern in the epidemiology of the disease. Current technologies such as GIS, satellite imagery and statistical models allow researchers to predict the spatial distribution of vectors in the changing environment. Although it is difficult to confirm the actual effect of environmental and climate changes on vector abundance and vector-borne diseases, environmental changes caused by humans and human behavioral changes due to climate change can be expected to exert an impact on dengue vectors. Longitudinal monitoring of dengue vectors and viruses is therefore necessary. PMID:22500133

The Emotion Recognition System Based on Autoregressive Model and Sequential Forward Feature Selection of Electroencephalogram Signals

PubMed Central

Hatamikia, Sepideh; Maghooli, Keivan; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie

2014-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG) is one of the useful biological signals to distinguish different brain diseases and mental states. In recent years, detecting different emotional states from biological signals has been merged more attention by researchers and several feature extraction methods and classifiers are suggested to recognize emotions from EEG signals. In this research, we introduce an emotion recognition system using autoregressive (AR) model, sequential forward feature selection (SFS) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier using EEG signals during emotional audio-visual inductions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of AR features in the classification of emotional states. To achieve this goal, a distinguished AR method (Burg's method) based on Levinson-Durbin's recursive algorithm is used and AR coefficients are extracted as feature vectors. In the next step, two different feature selection methods based on SFS algorithm and Davies–Bouldin index are used in order to decrease the complexity of computing and redundancy of features; then, three different classifiers include KNN, quadratic discriminant analysis and linear discriminant analysis are used to discriminate two and three different classes of valence and arousal levels. The proposed method is evaluated with EEG signals of available database for emotion analysis using physiological signals, which are recorded from 32 participants during 40 1 min audio visual inductions. According to the results, AR features are efficient to recognize emotional states from EEG signals, and KNN performs better than two other classifiers in discriminating of both two and three valence/arousal classes. The results also show that SFS method improves accuracies by almost 10-15% as compared to Davies–Bouldin based feature selection. The best accuracies are %72.33 and %74.20 for two classes of valence and arousal and %61.10 and %65.16 for three classes, respectively. PMID:25298928

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Autoregressive Methods for Spectral Estimation from Interferograms.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-19

RL83 6?6 AUTOREGRESSIVE METHODS FOR SPECTRAL. ESTIMTION FROM / SPACE ENGINEERING E N RICHARDS ET AL. 19 SEPINEFRGAS.()UA TT NV GNCNE O C: 31SSF...was AUG1085 performed under subcontract to . Center for Space Engineering Utah State University Logan, UT 84322-4140 4 4 Scientific Report No. 17 AFGL...MONITORING ORGANIZATION Center for Space Engineering (iapplicable) Air Force Geophysics Laboratory e. AORESS (City. State and ZIP Code) 7b. AOORESS (City

Detecting P and S-wave of Mt. Rinjani seismic based on a locally stationary autoregressive (LSAR) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhaida, Subanar, Abdurakhman, Abadi, Agus Maman

2017-08-01

Seismic data is usually modelled using autoregressive processes. The aim of this paper is to find the arrival times of the seismic waves of Mt. Rinjani in Indonesia. Kitagawa algorithm's is used to detect the seismic P and S-wave. Householder transformation used in the algorithm made it effectively finding the number of change points and parameters of the autoregressive models. The results show that the use of Box-Cox transformation on the variable selection level makes the algorithm works well in detecting the change points. Furthermore, when the basic span of the subinterval is set 200 seconds and the maximum AR order is 20, there are 8 change points which occur at 1601, 2001, 7401, 7601,7801, 8001, 8201 and 9601. Finally, The P and S-wave arrival times are detected at time 1671 and 2045 respectively using a precise detection algorithm.

Construction, Analysis, and Data-Driven Augmentation of Supersaturated Designs

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

guidelines and considerations. 27 Table 7. Supersaturated Design Example with 8 Runs and 14 Factors Design Factors Run x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11...much larger than the guidelines proposed by Marley 55 and Woods (2010). They recommend the factor-to-run ratio should be less than 2. Because our ratio...established approach in experimental design: Box (1992) provided general guidelines to consider, and traditional augmentation strategies like fold-over

A Distributed Lag Autoregressive Model of Geostationary Relativistic Electron Fluxes: Comparing the Influences of Waves, Seed and Source Electrons, and Solar Wind Inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simms, Laura; Engebretson, Mark; Clilverd, Mark; Rodger, Craig; Lessard, Marc; Gjerloev, Jesper; Reeves, Geoffrey

2018-05-01

Relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit depends on enhancement and loss processes driven by ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, chorus, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, seed electron flux, magnetosphere compression, the "Dst effect," and substorms, while solar wind inputs such as velocity, number density, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz drive these factors and thus correlate with flux. Distributed lag regression models show the time delay of highest influence of these factors on log10 high-energy electron flux (0.7-7.8 MeV, Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites). Multiple regression with an autoregressive term (flux persistence) allows direct comparison of the magnitude of each effect while controlling other correlated parameters. Flux enhancements due to ULF Pc5 and chorus waves are of equal importance. The direct effect of substorms on high-energy electron flux is strong, possibly due to injection of high-energy electrons by the substorms themselves. Loss due to electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is less influential. Southward Bz shows only moderate influence when correlated processes are accounted for. Adding covariate compression effects (pressure and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude) allows wave-driven enhancements to be more clearly seen. Seed electrons (270 keV) are most influential at lower relativistic energies, showing that such a population must be available for acceleration. However, they are not accelerated directly to the highest energies. Source electrons (31.7 keV) show no direct influence when other factors are controlled. Their action appears to be indirect via the chorus waves they generate. Determination of specific effects of each parameter when studied in combination will be more helpful in furthering modeling work than studying them individually.

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

2010-09-03

Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan.

Adeno-Associated Viral Vector (Serotype 2)-Nerve Growth Factor for Patients With Alzheimer Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Rafii, Michael S; Tuszynski, Mark H; Thomas, Ronald G; Barba, David; Brewer, James B; Rissman, Robert A; Siffert, Joao; Aisen, Paul S

2018-03-26

Nerve growth factor (NGF) is an endogenous neurotrophic factor that prevents the death and augments the functional state of cholinergic neurons of the basal forebrain, a cell population that undergoes extensive degeneration in Alzheimer disease (AD). To determine whether stereotactically guided intracerebral injections of adeno-associated viral vector (serotype 2)-nerve growth factor (AAV2-NGF) are well tolerated and exhibit preliminary evidence of impact on cognitive decline in mild to moderate AD-associated dementia. In a multicenter phase 2 trial, 49 participants with mild to moderate AD were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive stereotactically guided intracerebral injections of AAV2-NGF or sham surgery. Participants were enrolled between November 2009 and December 2012. Analyses began in February 2015. The study was conducted at 10 US academic medical centers. Eligibility required a diagnosis of mild to moderate dementia due to AD and individuals aged 55 to 80 years. A total of 39 participants did not pass screening; the most common reason was Mini-Mental State Examination scores below cutoff. Analyses were intention-to-treat. Stereotactically guided intracerebral injections of AAV2-NGF into the nucleus basalis of Meynert of each hemisphere or sham surgery. Change from baseline on the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale at month 24. Among 49 participants, 21 (43%) were women, 42 (86%) self-identified as white, and the mean (SD) age was 68 (6.4) years. AAV2-NGF was safe and well-tolerated through 24 months. No significant difference was noted between the treatment group and placebo on the primary outcome measure, the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (mean [SD] score, 14.52 [4.66] vs 9.11 [4.65], P = .17). This multicenter randomized clinical trial demonstrated the feasibility of sham-surgery-controlled stereotactic gene delivery studies in patients with AD. AAV2-NGF delivery was well-tolerated but did not affect clinical outcomes or selected AD biomarkers. Pathological confirmation of accurate gene targeting is needed. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier NCT00876863.

The role of remote sensing and GIS for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission: a systematic review.

PubMed

Palaniyandi, M

2012-12-01

There have been several attempts made to the appreciation of remote sensing and GIS for the study of vectors, biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases with respect to space and time. This study was made for reviewing and appraising the potential use of remote sensing and GIS applications for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission. The nature of the presence and the abundance of vectors and vector-borne diseases, disease infection and the disease transmission are not ubiquitous and are confined with geographical, environmental and climatic factors, and are localized. The presence of vectors and vector-borne diseases is most complex in nature, however, it is confined and fueled by the geographical, climatic and environmental factors including man-made factors. The usefulness of the present day availability of the information derived from the satellite data including vegetation indices of canopy cover and its density, soil types, soil moisture, soil texture, soil depth, etc. is integrating the information in the expert GIS engine for the spatial analysis of other geoclimatic and geoenvironmental variables. The present study gives the detailed information on the classical studies of the past and present, and the future role of remote sensing and GIS for the vector-borne diseases control. The ecological modeling directly gives us the relevant information to understand the spatial variation of the vector biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases in association with geoclimatic and the environmental variables. The probability map of the geographical distribution and seasonal variations of horizontal and vertical distribution of vector abundance and its association with vector -borne diseases can be obtained with low cost remote sensing and GIS tool with reliable data and speed.

An augmented aging process in brain white matter in HIV.

PubMed

Kuhn, Taylor; Kaufmann, Tobias; Doan, Nhat Trung; Westlye, Lars T; Jones, Jacob; Nunez, Rodolfo A; Bookheimer, Susan Y; Singer, Elyse J; Hinkin, Charles H; Thames, April D

2018-06-01

HIV infection and aging are both associated with neurodegeneration. However, whether the aging process alone or other factors associated with advanced age account for the progression of neurodegeneration in the aging HIV-positive (HIV+) population remains unclear. HIV+ (n = 70) and HIV-negative (HIV-, n = 34) participants underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and metrics of microstructural properties were extracted from regions of interest (ROIs). A support vector regression model was trained on two independent datasets of healthy adults across the adult life-span (n = 765, Cam-CAN = 588; UiO = 177) to predict participant age from DTI metrics, and applied to the HIV dataset. Predicted brain age gap (BAG) was computed as the difference between predicted age and chronological age, and statistically compared between HIV groups. Regressions assessed the relationship between BAG and HIV severity/medical comorbidities. Finally, correlation analyses tested for associations between BAG and cognitive performance. BAG was significantly higher in the HIV+ group than the HIV- group F (1, 103) = 12.408, p = .001). HIV RNA viral load was significantly associated with BAG, particularly in older HIV+ individuals (R 2  = 0.29, F(7, 70) = 2.66, p = .021). Further, BAG was negatively correlated with domain-level cognitive function (learning: r = -0.26, p = .008; memory: r = -0.21, p = .034). HIV infection is associated with augmented white matter aging, and greater brain aging is associated with worse cognitive performance in multiple domains. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Anomalous Fluctuations in Autoregressive Models with Long-Term Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Honjo, Haruo

2015-10-01

An autoregressive model with a power-law type memory kernel is studied as a stochastic process that exhibits a self-affine-fractal-like behavior for a small time scale. We find numerically that the root-mean-square displacement Δ(m) for the time interval m increases with a power law as mα with α < 1/2 for small m but saturates at sufficiently large m. The exponent α changes with the power exponent of the memory kernel.

On the Stationarity of Multiple Autoregressive Approximants: Theory and Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-08-01

a I (3.4) Hannan and Terrell (1972) consider problems of a similar nature. Efficient estimates A(1),... , A(p) , and i of A(1)... ,A(p) and...34Autoregressive model fitting for control, Ann . Inst. Statist. Math., 23, 163-180. Hannan, E. J. (1970), Multiple Time Series, New York, John Wiley...Hannan, E. J. and Terrell , R. D. (1972), "Time series regression with linear constraints, " International Economic Review, 13, 189-200. Masani, P

Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

further than 2 (Makridakis, et al, 1983, 359). 2-32 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) Model . Similar to the ARMA model except for...stationary process. ARIMA models are described as ARIMA (p,d,q), where p is the order of the autoregressive process, d is the degree of the...differential process, and q is the order of the moving average process. The ARMA (1,1) model shown above is equivalent to an ARIMA (1,0,1) model . An ARIMA

Equilibrium Policy Proposals with Abstentions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

David M. Kreps. 262. ’Autoregressive Modelling and Money Income (ajusality Detection." by (heng lisiao. 263. "Measurement IError in a Dynamiic...34Autoregressive Modeling of"Canadian Money and Income Data," by Cheng Ilsjao. 277. "We Can’t Disagree IForever," by John 1). Geanakoplos and Heraklis...34*Optimal & Voluntary Income Distribution," by K. J. Arrow. 289. "’Asymptotic Values mif Mixed Gaime,.," by Abraham Neymnan. 290. "Tinie Series Modelling

Time series models on analysing mortality rates and acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.

PubMed

Kis, Maria

2005-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate applying time series models on medical research. The Hungarian mortality rates were analysed by autoregressive integrated moving average models and seasonal time series models examined the data of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.The mortality data may be analysed by time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. This method is demonstrated by two examples: analysis of the mortality rates of ischemic heart diseases and analysis of the mortality rates of cancer of digestive system. Mathematical expressions are given for the results of analysis. The relationships between time series of mortality rates were studied with ARIMA models. Calculations of confidence intervals for autoregressive parameters by tree methods: standard normal distribution as estimation and estimation of the White's theory and the continuous time case estimation. Analysing the confidence intervals of the first order autoregressive parameters we may conclude that the confidence intervals were much smaller than other estimations by applying the continuous time estimation model.We present a new approach to analysing the occurrence of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia. We decompose time series into components. The periodicity of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia in Hungary was examined using seasonal decomposition time series method. The cyclic trend of the dates of diagnosis revealed that a higher percent of the peaks fell within the winter months than in the other seasons. This proves the seasonal occurrence of the childhood leukaemia in Hungary.

EEG data reduction by means of autoregressive representation and discriminant analysis procedures.

PubMed

Blinowska, K J; Czerwosz, L T; Drabik, W; Franaszczuk, P J; Ekiert, H

1981-06-01

A program for automatic evaluation of EEG spectra, providing considerable reduction of data, was devised. Artefacts were eliminated in two steps: first, the longer duration eye movement artefacts were removed by a fast and simple 'moving integral' methods, then occasional spikes were identified by means of a detection function defined in the formalism of the autoregressive (AR) model. The evaluation of power spectra was performed by means of an FFT and autoregressive representation, which made possible the comparison of both methods. The spectra obtained by means of the AR model had much smaller statistical fluctuations and better resolution, enabling us to follow the time changes of the EEG pattern. Another advantage of the autoregressive approach was the parametric description of the signal. This last property appeared to be essential in distinguishing the changes in the EEG pattern. In a drug study the application of the coefficients of the AR model as input parameters in the discriminant analysis, instead of arbitrary chosen frequency bands, brought a significant improvement in distinguishing the effects of the medication. The favourable properties of the AR model are connected with the fact that the above approach fulfils the maximum entropy principle. This means that the method describes in a maximally consistent way the available information and is free from additional assumptions, which is not the case for the FFT estimate.

Prediction of global ionospheric VTEC maps using an adaptive autoregressive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cheng; Xin, Shaoming; Liu, Xiaolu; Shi, Chuang; Fan, Lei

2018-02-01

In this contribution, an adaptive autoregressive model is proposed and developed to predict global ionospheric vertical total electron content maps (VTEC). Specifically, the spherical harmonic (SH) coefficients are predicted based on the autoregressive model, and the order of the autoregressive model is determined adaptively using the F-test method. To test our method, final CODE and IGS global ionospheric map (GIM) products, as well as altimeter TEC data during low and mid-to-high solar activity period collected by JASON, are used to evaluate the precision of our forecasting products. Results indicate that the predicted products derived from the model proposed in this paper have good consistency with the final GIMs in low solar activity, where the annual mean of the root-mean-square value is approximately 1.5 TECU. However, the performance of predicted vertical TEC in periods of mid-to-high solar activity has less accuracy than that during low solar activity periods, especially in the equatorial ionization anomaly region and the Southern Hemisphere. Additionally, in comparison with forecasting products, the final IGS GIMs have the best consistency with altimeter TEC data. Future work is needed to investigate the performance of forecasting products using the proposed method in an operational environment, rather than using the SH coefficients from the final CODE products, to understand the real-time applicability of the method.

Linear models of coregionalization for multivariate lattice data: Order-dependent and order-free cMCARs.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2016-08-01

This paper concerns with multivariate conditional autoregressive models defined by linear combination of independent or correlated underlying spatial processes. Known as linear models of coregionalization, the method offers a systematic and unified approach for formulating multivariate extensions to a broad range of univariate conditional autoregressive models. The resulting multivariate spatial models represent classes of coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressive models that enable flexible modelling of multivariate spatial interactions, yielding coregionalization models with symmetric or asymmetric cross-covariances of different spatial variation and smoothness. In the context of multivariate disease mapping, for example, they facilitate borrowing strength both over space and cross variables, allowing for more flexible multivariate spatial smoothing. Specifically, we present a broadened coregionalization framework to include order-dependent, order-free, and order-robust multivariate models; a new class of order-free coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressives is introduced. We tackle computational challenges and present solutions that are integral for Bayesian analysis of these models. We also discuss two ways of computing deviance information criterion for comparison among competing hierarchical models with or without unidentifiable prior parameters. The models and related methodology are developed in the broad context of modelling multivariate data on spatial lattice and illustrated in the context of multivariate disease mapping. The coregionalization framework and related methods also present a general approach for building spatially structured cross-covariance functions for multivariate geostatistics. © The Author(s) 2016.

Application of inertial instruments for DSN antenna pointing and tracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eldred, D. B.; Nerheim, N. M.; Holmes, K. G.

1990-01-01

The feasibility of using inertial instruments to determine the pointing attitude of the NASA Deep Space Network antennas is examined. The objective is to obtain 1 mdeg pointing knowledge in both blind pointing and tracking modes to facilitate operation of the Deep Space Network 70 m antennas at 32 GHz. A measurement system employing accelerometers, an inclinometer, and optical gyroscopes is proposed. The initial pointing attitude is established by determining the direction of the local gravity vector using the accelerometers and the inclinometer, and the Earth's spin axis using the gyroscopes. Pointing during long-term tracking is maintained by integrating the gyroscope rates and augmenting these measurements with knowledge of the local gravity vector. A minimum-variance estimator is used to combine measurements to obtain the antenna pointing attitude. A key feature of the algorithm is its ability to recalibrate accelerometer parameters during operation. A survey of available inertial instrument technologies is also given.

Soft tissue wound healing at teeth, dental implants and the edentulous ridge when using barrier membranes, growth and differentiation factors and soft tissue substitutes.

PubMed

Vignoletti, Fabio; Nunez, Javier; Sanz, Mariano

2014-04-01

To review the biological processes of wound healing following periodontal and periimplant plastic surgery when different technologies are used in a) the coverage of root and implant dehiscences, b) the augmentation of keratinized tissue (KT) and c) the augmentation of soft tissue volume. An electronic search from The National Library of Medicine (MEDLINE-PubMed) was performed: English articles with research focus in oral soft tissue regeneration, providing histological outcomes, either from animal experimental studies or human biopsy material were included. Barrier membranes, enamel matrix derivatives, growth factors, allogeneic and xenogeneic soft tissue substitutes have been used in soft tissue regeneration demonstrating different degrees of regeneration. In root coverage, these technologies were able to improve new attachment, although none has shown complete regeneration. In KT augmentation, tissue-engineered allogenic products and xenogeneic collagen matrixes demonstrated integration within the host connective tissue and promotion of keratinization. In soft tissue augmentation and peri-implant plastic surgery there are no histological data currently available. Soft tissue substitutes, growth differentiation factors demonstrated promising histological results in terms of soft tissue regeneration and keratinization, whereas there is a need for further studies to prove their added value in soft tissue augmentation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new method for reconstruction of solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor

2018-07-01

The purpose of this research is to show how time series should be reconstructed using an example with the data on total solar irradiation (TSI) of the Earth and on sunspot numbers (SSN) since 1749. The traditional approach through regression equation(s) is designed for time-invariant vectors of random variables and is not applicable to time series, which present random functions of time. The autoregressive reconstruction (ARR) method suggested here requires fitting a multivariate stochastic difference equation to the target/proxy time series. The reconstruction is done through the scalar equation for the target time series with the white noise term excluded. The time series approach is shown to provide a better reconstruction of TSI than the correlation/regression method. A reconstruction criterion is introduced which allows one to define in advance the achievable level of success in the reconstruction. The conclusion is that time series, including the total solar irradiance, cannot be reconstructed properly if the data are not treated as sample records of random processes and analyzed in both time and frequency domains.

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine; ...

2018-01-08

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

Modeling the impact of transport energy consumption on CO2 emission in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL approach.

PubMed

Danish; Baloch, Muhammad Awais; Suad, Shah

2018-04-01

The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between transport energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission (CO 2 ) from transport sector incorporating foreign direct investment and urbanization. This study is carried out in Pakistan by applying autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) over 1990-2015. The empirical results indicate a strong significant impact of transport energy consumption on CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector. Furthermore, foreign direct investment also contributes to CO 2 emission. Interestingly, the impact of economic growth and urbanization on transport CO 2 emission is statistically insignificant. Overall, transport energy consumption and foreign direct investment are not environmentally friendly. The new empirical evidence from this study provides a complete picture of the determinants of emissions from the transport sector and these novel findings not only help to advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to the country's policymakers. So, we urge that government needs to focus on promoting the energy efficient means of transportation to improve environmental quality with less adverse influence on economic growth.

The role of energy in economic growth.

PubMed

Stern, David I

2011-02-01

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Sign: large-scale gene network estimation environment for high performance computing.

PubMed

Tamada, Yoshinori; Shimamura, Teppei; Yamaguchi, Rui; Imoto, Seiya; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

2011-01-01

Our research group is currently developing software for estimating large-scale gene networks from gene expression data. The software, called SiGN, is specifically designed for the Japanese flagship supercomputer "K computer" which is planned to achieve 10 petaflops in 2012, and other high performance computing environments including Human Genome Center (HGC) supercomputer system. SiGN is a collection of gene network estimation software with three different sub-programs: SiGN-BN, SiGN-SSM and SiGN-L1. In these three programs, five different models are available: static and dynamic nonparametric Bayesian networks, state space models, graphical Gaussian models, and vector autoregressive models. All these models require a huge amount of computational resources for estimating large-scale gene networks and therefore are designed to be able to exploit the speed of 10 petaflops. The software will be available freely for "K computer" and HGC supercomputer system users. The estimated networks can be viewed and analyzed by Cell Illustrator Online and SBiP (Systems Biology integrative Pipeline). The software project web site is available at http://sign.hgc.jp/ .

Non-Gaussian spatiotemporal simulation of multisite daily precipitation: downscaling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, M. A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Chebana, F.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic regression approaches for downscaling daily precipitation are very useful. They provide the whole conditional distribution at each forecast step to better represent the temporal variability. The question addressed in this paper is: how to simulate spatiotemporal characteristics of multisite daily precipitation from probabilistic regression models? Recent publications point out the complexity of multisite properties of daily precipitation and highlight the need for using a non-Gaussian flexible tool. This work proposes a reasonable compromise between simplicity and flexibility avoiding model misspecification. A suitable nonparametric bootstrapping (NB) technique is adopted. A downscaling model which merges a vector generalized linear model (VGLM as a probabilistic regression tool) and the proposed bootstrapping technique is introduced to simulate realistic multisite precipitation series. The model is applied to data sets from the southern part of the province of Quebec, Canada. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing both at-site properties and the spatial structure of daily precipitations. Results indicate the superiority of the proposed NB technique, over a multivariate autoregressive Gaussian framework (i.e. Gaussian copula).

Multiscale analysis of information dynamics for linear multivariate processes.

PubMed

Faes, Luca; Montalto, Alessandro; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Nollo, Giandomenico; Marinazzo, Daniele

2016-08-01

In the study of complex physical and physiological systems represented by multivariate time series, an issue of great interest is the description of the system dynamics over a range of different temporal scales. While information-theoretic approaches to the multiscale analysis of complex dynamics are being increasingly used, the theoretical properties of the applied measures are poorly understood. This study introduces for the first time a framework for the analytical computation of information dynamics for linear multivariate stochastic processes explored at different time scales. After showing that the multiscale processing of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process introduces a moving average (MA) component, we describe how to represent the resulting VARMA process using statespace (SS) models and how to exploit the SS model parameters to compute analytical measures of information storage and information transfer for the original and rescaled processes. The framework is then used to quantify multiscale information dynamics for simulated unidirectionally and bidirectionally coupled VAR processes, showing that rescaling may lead to insightful patterns of information storage and transfer but also to potentially misleading behaviors.

Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

2013-07-01

The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

PubMed

Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

2011-01-01

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applied Augmented Reality for High Precision Maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dever, Clark

Augmented Reality had a major consumer breakthrough this year with Pokemon Go. The underlying technologies that made that app a success with gamers can be applied to improve the efficiency and efficacy of workers. This session will explore some of the use cases for augmented reality in an industrial environment. In doing so, the environmental impacts and human factors that must be considered will be explored. Additionally, the sensors, algorithms, and visualization techniques used to realize augmented reality will be discussed. The benefits of augmented reality solutions in industrial environments include automated data recording, improved quality assurance, reduction in training costs and improved mean-time-to-resolution. As technology continues to follow Moore's law, more applications will become feasible as performance-per-dollar increases across all system components.

Parametric Investigation of Thrust Augmentation by Ejectors on a Pulsed Detonation Tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Jack; Sgondea, Alexandru; Paxson, Daniel E.; Rosenthal, Bruce N.

2006-01-01

A parametric investigation has been made of thrust augmentation of a 1 in. diameter pulsed detonation tube by ejectors. A set of ejectors was used which permitted variation of the ejector length, diameter, and nose radius, according to a statistical design of experiment scheme. The maximum augmentation ratios for each ejector were fitted using a polynomial response surface, from which the optimum ratios of ejector diameter to detonation tube diameter, and ejector length and nose radius to ejector diameter, were found. Thrust augmentation ratios above a factor of 2 were measured. In these tests, the pulsed detonation device was run on approximately stoichiometric air-hydrogen mixtures, at a frequency of 20 Hz. Later measurements at a frequency of 40 Hz gave lower values of thrust augmentation. Measurements of thrust augmentation as a function of ejector entrance to detonation tube exit distance showed two maxima, one with the ejector entrance upstream, and one downstream, of the detonation tube exit. A thrust augmentation of 2.5 was observed using a tapered ejector.

Parametric Investigation of Thrust Augmentation by Ejectors on a Pulsed Detonation Tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Jack; Sgondea, Alexandru; Paxson, Daniel E.; Rosenthal, Bruce N.

2005-01-01

A parametric investigation has been made of thrust augmentation of a 1 inch diameter pulsed detonation tube by ejectors. A set of ejectors was used which permitted variation of the ejector length, diameter, and nose radius, according to a statistical design of experiment scheme. The maximum augmentations for each ejector were fitted using a polynomial response surface, from which the optimum ejector diameters, and nose radius, were found. Thrust augmentations above a factor of 2 were measured. In these tests, the pulsed detonation device was run on approximately stoichiometric air-hydrogen mixtures, at a frequency of 20 Hz. Later measurements at a frequency of 40 Hz gave lower values of thrust augmentation. Measurements of thrust augmentation as a function of ejector entrance to detonation tube exit distance showed two maxima, one with the ejector entrance upstream, and one downstream, of the detonation tube exit. A thrust augmentation of 2.5 was observed using a tapered ejector.

Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia.

PubMed

Ahmad, Rohani; Suzilah, Ismail; Wan Najdah, Wan Mohamad Ali; Topek, Omar; Mustafakamal, Ibrahim; Lee, Han Lim

2018-01-01

A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so that preventive interventions can be taken early to avert the outbreaks.

Fisher Consistency of AM-Estimates of the Autoregression Parameter Using Hard Rejection Filter Cleaners

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-04

U5tr,)! P(U 5-t Since U - F with F RS, we get (3.1). Case b: 0 S 5 k -a Now P([U~t]riM) = P(UZk-a) and P([ Ugt ]rM) = P(US-k-a) S P(US-(k-a)) which again...robustness for autoregressive processes." The Annals of Statistics, 12, 843-863. Mallows, C.L. (1980). "Some theory of nonlinear smoothen." The Annals of

Benefit assessment of solar-augmented natural gas systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, E. S.; French, R. L.; Sohn, R. L.

1980-01-01

Report details how solar-energy-augmented system can reduce natural gas consumption by 40% to 70%. Applications discussed include: domestic hot water system, solar-assisted gas heat pumps, direct heating from storage tank. Industrial uses, solar-assisted appliances, and economic factors are discussed.

Angular motion estimation using dynamic models in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit.

PubMed

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters.

Angular Motion Estimation Using Dynamic Models in a Gyro-Free Inertial Measurement Unit

PubMed Central

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters. PMID:22778586

Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models and Granger Causality in Time Series Analysis in Nursing Research: Dynamic Changes Among Vital Signs Prior to Cardiorespiratory Instability Events as an Example

PubMed Central

Bose, Eliezer; Hravnak, Marilyn; Sereika, Susan M.

2016-01-01

Background Patients undergoing continuous vital sign monitoring (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], pulse oximetry [SpO2]) in real time display inter-related vital sign changes during situations of physiologic stress. Patterns in this physiological cross-talk could portend impending cardiorespiratory instability (CRI). Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with Granger causality tests is one of the most flexible ways to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms in time series data. Purpose The purpose of this article is to illustrate development of patient-specific VAR models using vital sign time series (VSTS) data in a sample of acutely ill, monitored, step-down unit (SDU) patients, and determine their Granger causal dynamics prior to onset of an incident CRI. Approach CRI was defined as vital signs beyond stipulated normality thresholds (HR = 40–140/minute, RR = 8–36/minute, SpO2 < 85%) and persisting for 3 minutes within a 5-minute moving window (60% of the duration of the window). A 6-hour time segment prior to onset of first CRI was chosen for time series modeling in 20 patients using a six-step procedure: (a) the uniform time series for each vital sign was assessed for stationarity; (b) appropriate lag was determined using a lag-length selection criteria; (c) the VAR model was constructed; (d) residual autocorrelation was assessed with the Lagrange Multiplier test; (e) stability of the VAR system was checked; and (f) Granger causality was evaluated in the final stable model. Results The primary cause of incident CRI was low SpO2 (60% of cases), followed by out-of-range RR (30%) and HR (10%). Granger causality testing revealed that change in RR caused change in HR (21%) (i.e., RR changed before HR changed) more often than change in HR causing change in RR (15%). Similarly, changes in RR caused changes in SpO2 (15%) more often than changes in SpO2 caused changes in RR (9%). For HR and SpO2, changes in HR causing changes in SpO2 and changes in SpO2 causing changes in HR occurred with equal frequency (18%). Discussion Within this sample of acutely ill patients who experienced a CRI event, VAR modeling indicated that RR changes tend to occur before changes in HR and SpO2. These findings suggest that contextual assessment of RR changes as the earliest sign of CRI is warranted. Use of VAR modeling may be helpful in other nursing research applications based on time series data. PMID:27977564

Down-regulation of MDR1 by Ad-DKK3 via Akt/NFκB pathways augments the anti-tumor effect of temozolomide in glioblastoma cells and a murine xenograft model.

PubMed

Fujihara, Toshitaka; Mizobuchi, Yoshifumi; Nakajima, Kohei; Kageji, Teruyoshi; Matsuzaki, Kazuhito; Kitazato, Keiko T; Otsuka, Ryotaro; Hara, Keijiro; Mure, Hideo; Okazaki, Toshiyuki; Kuwayama, Kazuyuki; Nagahiro, Shinji; Takagi, Yasushi

2018-05-19

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most malignant of brain tumors. Acquired drug resistance is a major obstacle for successful treatment. Earlier studies reported that expression of the multiple drug resistance gene (MDR1) is regulated by YB-1 or NFκB via the JNK/c-Jun or Akt pathway. Over-expression of the Dickkopf (DKK) family member DKK3 by an adenovirus vector carrying DKK3 (Ad-DKK3) exerted anti-tumor effects and led to the activation of the JNK/c-Jun pathway. We investigated whether Ad-DKK3 augments the anti-tumor effect of temozolomide (TMZ) via the regulation of MDR1. GBM cells (U87MG and U251MG), primary TGB105 cells, and mice xenografted with U87MG cells were treated with Ad-DKK3 or TMZ alone or in combination. Ad-DKK3 augmentation of the anti-tumor effects of TMZ was associated with reduced MDR1 expression in both in vivo and in vitro studies. The survival of Ad-DKK3-treated U87MG cells was inhibited and the expression of MDR1 was reduced. This was associated with the inhibition of Akt/NFκB but not of YB-1 via the JNK/c-Jun- or Akt pathway. Our results suggest that Ad-DKK3 regulates the expression of MDR1 via Akt/NFκB pathways and that it augments the anti-tumor effects of TMZ in GBM cells.

The Use of Recombinant Human Platelet-Derived Growth Factor for Maxillary Sinus Augmentation.

PubMed

Kubota, Atsushi; Sarmiento, Hector; Alqahtani, Mohammed Saad; Llobell, Arturo; Fiorellini, Joseph P

The maxillary sinus augmentation procedure has become a predictable treatment to regenerate bone for implant placement. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of recombinant human platelet-derived growth factor BB (rhPDGF-BB) combined with a deproteinized cancellous bovine bone graft for sinus augmentation. The lateral window approach was used for maxillary sinuses with minimal residual bone. After a healing period of 4 months, dental implants were placed and then restored following a 2-month osseointegration period. The result demonstrated increased bone height and ISQ values and a 100% survival rate. This study indicates that the addition of rhPDGF-BB to deproteinized cancellous bovine bone accelerated the healing period in maxillary sinuses with minimal native bone.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unseren, M.A.

This report proposes a method for resolving the kinematic redundancy of a serial link manipulator moving in a three-dimensional workspace. The underspecified problem of solving for the joint velocities based on the classical kinematic velocity model is transformed into a well-specified problem. This is accomplished by augmenting the original model with additional equations which relate a new vector variable quantifying the redundant degrees of freedom (DOF) to the joint velocities. The resulting augmented system yields a well specified solution for the joint velocities. Methods for selecting the redundant DOF quantifying variable and the transformation matrix relating it to the jointmore » velocities are presented so as to obtain a minimum Euclidean norm solution for the joint velocities. The approach is also applied to the problem of resolving the kinematic redundancy at the acceleration level. Upon resolving the kinematic redundancy, a rigid body dynamical model governing the gross motion of the manipulator is derived. A control architecture is suggested which according to the model, decouples the Cartesian space DOF and the redundant DOF.« less

Tumor-targeting CTL expressing a single-chain Fv specific for VEGFR2.

PubMed

Kanagawa, Naoko; Yanagawa, Tatsuya; Mukai, Yohei; Yoshioka, Yasuo; Okada, Naoki; Nakagawa, Shinsaku

2010-03-26

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) are critical effector cells in tumor immunity. Adoptive transfer therapy with in vitro-expanded tumor-specific CTL is a promising approach for preventing cancer metastasis and recurrence. Transferred CTL are not effective in clinical trials, however, due to inadequate tumor-infiltration. Therefore, the development of functionally modified CTL, such as tumor-targeting CTL, is widely desired. Here, we designed the tumor-targeting CTL expressing a single-chain antibody fragment (scFv-CTL) specific for vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2/flk1) by transducing the CTL with a retroviral vector. The scFv-CTL bound to VEGFR2/flk1-expressing cells and retained their cytotoxic activity against tumor cells. In addition, adoptive transfer of scFv-CTL into tumor-bearing mice effectively suppressed tumor growth due to the augmented accumulation of the transferred CTL in the tumor tissue. These findings indicate that the creation of CTL capable of targeting tumor vascular endothelial cells by scFv-expression technique is considerably promising for improvement of efficacy in adoptive immunotherapy. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation model of the F/A-18 high angle-of-attack research vehicle utilized for the design of advanced control laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strickland, Mark E.; Bundick, W. Thomas; Messina, Michael D.; Hoffler, Keith D.; Carzoo, Susan W.; Yeager, Jessie C.; Beissner, Fred L., Jr.

1996-01-01

The 'f18harv' six degree-of-freedom nonlinear batch simulation used to support research in advanced control laws and flight dynamics issues as part of NASA's High Alpha Technology Program is described in this report. This simulation models an F/A-18 airplane modified to incorporate a multi-axis thrust-vectoring system for augmented pitch and yaw control power and actuated forebody strakes for enhanced aerodynamic yaw control power. The modified configuration is known as the High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The 'f18harv' simulation was an outgrowth of the 'f18bas' simulation which modeled the basic F/A-18 with a preliminary version of a thrust-vectoring system designed for the HARV. The preliminary version consisted of two thrust-vectoring vanes per engine nozzle compared with the three vanes per engine actually employed on the F/A-18 HARV. The modeled flight envelope is extensive in that the aerodynamic database covers an angle-of-attack range of -10 degrees to +90 degrees, sideslip range of -20 degrees to +20 degrees, a Mach Number range between 0.0 and 2.0, and an altitude range between 0 and 60,000 feet.

A Potent, Imaging Adenoviral Vector Driven by the Cancer-selective Mucin-1 Promoter That Targets Breast Cancer Metastasis

PubMed Central

Huyn, Steven T.; Burton, Jeremy B.; Sato, Makoto; Carey, Michael; Gambhir, Sanjiv S.; Wu, Lily

2009-01-01

Purpose With breast cancer, early detection and proper staging are critical, and will often influence both the treatment regimen and the therapeutic outcome for those affected with this disease. Improvements in these areas will play a profound role in reducing mortality from breast cancer. Experimental Design In this work we developed a breast cancer – targeted serotype 5 adenoviral vector, utilizing the tumor-specific mucin-1 promoter in combination with the two-step transcriptional amplification system, a system used to augment the activity of weak tissue – specific promoters. Results We showed the strong specificity of this tumor-selective adenovirus to express the luciferase optical imaging gene, leading to diagnostic signals that enabled detection of sentinel lymph node metastasis of breast cancer. Furthermore, we were able to target hepatic metastases following systemic administration of this mucin-1 selective virus. Conclusions Collectively, we showed that the amplified mucin-1 promoter – driven vector is able to deliver to and selectively express a desirable transgene in metastatic lesions of breast tumors. This work has strong clinical relevance to current diagnostic staging approaches, and could add to targeted therapeutic strategies to advance the fight against breast cancer. PMID:19366829

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

Acceleration and Velocity Sensing from Measured Strain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-Gi; Truax, Roger

2015-01-01

A simple approach for computing acceleration and velocity of a structure from the strain is proposed in this study. First, deflection and slope of the structure are computed from the strain using a two-step theory. Frequencies of the structure are computed from the time histories of strain using a parameter estimation technique together with an autoregressive moving average model. From deflection, slope, and frequencies of the structure, acceleration and velocity of the structure can be obtained using the proposed approach. Simple harmonic motion is assumed for the acceleration computations, and the central difference equation with a linear autoregressive model is used for the computations of velocity. A cantilevered rectangular wing model is used to validate the simple approach. Quality of the computed deflection, acceleration, and velocity values are independent of the number of fibers. The central difference equation with a linear autoregressive model proposed in this study follows the target response with reasonable accuracy. Therefore, the handicap of the backward difference equation, phase shift, is successfully overcome.

Sleep analysis for wearable devices applying autoregressive parametric models.

PubMed

Mendez, M O; Villantieri, O; Bianchi, A; Cerutti, S

2005-01-01

We applied time-variant and time-invariant parametric models in both healthy subjects and patients with sleep disorder recordings in order to assess the skills of those approaches to sleep disorders diagnosis in wearable devices. The recordings present the Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) pathology which is characterized by fluctuations in the heart rate, bradycardia in apneonic phase and tachycardia at the recovery of ventilation. Data come from a web database in www.physionet.org. During OSA the spectral indexes obtained by time-variant lattice filters presented oscillations that correspond to the changes brady-tachycardia of the RR intervals and greater values than healthy ones. Multivariate autoregressive models showed an increment in very low frequency component (PVLF) at each apneic event. Also a rise in high frequency component (PHF) occurred over the breathing restore in the spectrum of both quadratic coherence and cross-spectrum in OSA. These autoregressive parametric approaches could help in the diagnosis of Sleep Disorder inside of the wearable devices.

Water balance models in one-month-ahead streamflow forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1985-01-01

Techniques are tested that incorporate information from water balance models in making 1-month-ahead streamflow forecasts in New Jersey. The results are compared to those based on simple autoregressive time series models. The relative performance of the models is dependent on the month of the year in question. The water balance models are most useful for forecasts of April and May flows. For the stations in northern New Jersey, the April and May forecasts were made in order of decreasing reliability using the water-balance-based approaches, using the historical monthly means, and using simple autoregressive models. The water balance models were useful to a lesser extent for forecasts during the fall months. For the rest of the year the improvements in forecasts over those obtained using the simpler autoregressive models were either very small or the simpler models provided better forecasts. When using the water balance models, monthly corrections for bias are found to improve minimum mean-square-error forecasts as well as to improve estimates of the forecast conditional distributions.

[A novel method of multi-channel feature extraction combining multivariate autoregression and multiple-linear principal component analysis].

PubMed

Wang, Jinjia; Zhang, Yanna

2015-02-01

Brain-computer interface (BCI) systems identify brain signals through extracting features from them. In view of the limitations of the autoregressive model feature extraction method and the traditional principal component analysis to deal with the multichannel signals, this paper presents a multichannel feature extraction method that multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model combined with the multiple-linear principal component analysis (MPCA), and used for magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals and electroencephalograph (EEG) signals recognition. Firstly, we calculated the MVAR model coefficient matrix of the MEG/EEG signals using this method, and then reduced the dimensions to a lower one, using MPCA. Finally, we recognized brain signals by Bayes Classifier. The key innovation we introduced in our investigation showed that we extended the traditional single-channel feature extraction method to the case of multi-channel one. We then carried out the experiments using the data groups of IV-III and IV - I. The experimental results proved that the method proposed in this paper was feasible.

Distance to health services affects local-level vaccine efficacy for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) among rural Filipino children.

PubMed

Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Lucero, Marilla; Nohynek, Hanna; Anthamatten, Peter; Thomas, Deborah S K; Tallo, Veronica; Tanskanen, Antti; Quiambao, Beatriz P; Puumalainen, Taneli; Lupisan, Socorro P; Ruutu, Petri; Ladesma, Erma; Williams, Gail M; Riley, Ian; Simões, Eric A F

2014-03-04

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood pneumococcal disease in several regions globally. We demonstrate how spatial epidemiological analysis of a PCV trial can assist in developing vaccination strategies that target specific geographic subpopulations at greater risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind vaccine trial that examined the efficacy of an 11-valent PCV among children less than 2 y of age in Bohol, Philippines. Trial data were linked to the residential location of each participant using a geographic information system. We use spatial interpolation methods to create smoothed surface maps of vaccination rates and local-level vaccine efficacy across the study area. We then measure the relationship between distance to the main study hospital and local-level vaccine efficacy, controlling for ecological factors, using spatial autoregressive models with spatial autoregressive disturbances. We find a significant amount of spatial variation in vaccination rates across the study area. For the primary study endpoint vaccine efficacy increased with distance from the main study hospital from -14% for children living less than 1.5 km from Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) to 55% for children living greater than 8.5 km from BRH. Spatial regression models indicated that after adjustment for ecological factors, distance to the main study hospital was positively related to vaccine efficacy, increasing at a rate of 4.5% per kilometer distance. Because areas with poor access to care have significantly higher VE, targeted vaccination of children in these areas might allow for a more effective implementation of global programs.

Depression and smoking: a 5-year prospective study of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Holma, Irina A K; Holma, K Mikael; Melartin, Tarja K; Ketokivi, Mikko; Isometsä, Erkki T

2013-06-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) and smoking are major public health problems and epidemiologically strongly associated. However, the relationship between smoking and depression and whether this is influenced by common confounding factors remain unclear, in part due to limited longitudinal data on covariation. In the Vantaa Depression Study, psychiatric out- and inpatients with DSM-IV MDD and aged 20-59 years at were followed from baseline to 6 months, 18 months, and 5 years. We investigated course of depression, smoking, and comorbid alcohol-use disorders among the 214 patients (79.6% of 269) participating at least three time points; differences between smoking versus nonsmoking patients, and covariation of MDD, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders. Overall, 31.3% of the patients smoked regularly, 41.1% intermittently, and 27.6% never. Smokers were younger, had more alcohol-use disorders and Cluster B and C personality disorder symptoms, a higher frequency of lifetime suicide attempts, higher neuroticism, smaller social networks, and lower perceived social support than never smokers. Smoking and depression had limited longitudinal covariation. Depression, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders all exhibited strong autoregressive tendencies. Among adult psychiatric MDD patients, smoking is strongly associated with substance-use and personality disorders, which may confound research on the impact of smoking. Rather than depression or smoking covarying or predicting each other, depression, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders each have strong autoregressive tendencies. These findings are more consistent with common factors causing their association than either of the conditions strongly predisposing to the other. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A feature selection approach towards progressive vector transmission over the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Ru; Song, Jia; Feng, Min

2017-09-01

WebGIS has been applied for visualizing and sharing geospatial information popularly over the Internet. In order to improve the efficiency of the client applications, the web-based progressive vector transmission approach is proposed. Important features should be selected and transferred firstly, and the methods for measuring the importance of features should be further considered in the progressive transmission. However, studies on progressive transmission for large-volume vector data have mostly focused on map generalization in the field of cartography, but rarely discussed on the selection of geographic features quantitatively. This paper applies information theory for measuring the feature importance of vector maps. A measurement model for the amount of information of vector features is defined based upon the amount of information for dealing with feature selection issues. The measurement model involves geometry factor, spatial distribution factor and thematic attribute factor. Moreover, a real-time transport protocol (RTP)-based progressive transmission method is then presented to improve the transmission of vector data. To clearly demonstrate the essential methodology and key techniques, a prototype for web-based progressive vector transmission is presented, and an experiment of progressive selection and transmission for vector features is conducted. The experimental results indicate that our approach clearly improves the performance and end-user experience of delivering and manipulating large vector data over the Internet.

Reciprocal Associations between Negative Affect, Binge Eating, and Purging in the Natural Environment in Women with Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Lavender, Jason M.; Utzinger, Linsey M.; Cao, Li; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Engel, Scott G.; Mitchell, James E.; Crosby, Ross D.

2016-01-01

Although negative affect (NA) has been identified as a common trigger for bulimic behaviors, findings regarding NA following such behaviors have been mixed. This study examined reciprocal associations between NA and bulimic behaviors using real-time, naturalistic data. Participants were 133 women with DSM-IV bulimia nervosa (BN) who completed a two-week ecological momentary assessment (EMA) protocol in which they recorded bulimic behaviors and provided multiple daily ratings of NA. A multilevel autoregressive cross-lagged analysis was conducted to examine concurrent, first-order autoregressive, and prospective associations between NA, binge eating, and purging across the day. Results revealed positive concurrent associations between all variables across all time points, as well as numerous autoregressive associations. For prospective associations, higher NA predicted subsequent bulimic symptoms at multiple time points; conversely, binge eating predicted lower NA at multiple time points, and purging predicted higher NA at one time point. Several autoregressive and prospective associations were also found between binge eating and purging. This study used a novel approach to examine NA in relation to bulimic symptoms, contributing to the existing literature by directly examining the magnitude of the associations, examining differences in the associations across the day, and controlling for other associations in testing each effect in the model. These findings may have relevance for understanding the etiology and/or maintenance of bulimic symptoms, as well as potentially informing psychological interventions for BN. PMID:26692122

Multifractality and autoregressive processes of dry spell lengths in Europe: an approach to their complexity and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lana, X.; Burgueño, A.; Serra, C.; Martínez, M. D.

2017-01-01

Dry spell lengths, DSL, defined as the number of consecutive days with daily rain amounts below a given threshold, may provide relevant information about drought regimes. Taking advantage of a daily pluviometric database covering a great extension of Europe, a detailed analysis of the multifractality of the dry spell regimes is achieved. At the same time, an autoregressive process is applied with the aim of predicting DSL. A set of parameters, namely Hurst exponent, H, estimated from multifractal spectrum, f( α), critical Hölder exponent, α 0, for which f( α) reaches its maximum value, spectral width, W, and spectral asymmetry, B, permits a first clustering of European rain gauges in terms of the complexity of their DSL series. This set of parameters also allows distinguishing between time series describing fine- or smooth-structure of the DSL regime by using the complexity index, CI. Results of previous monofractal analyses also permits establishing comparisons between smooth-structures, relatively low correlation dimensions, notable predictive instability and anti-persistence of DSL for European areas, sometimes submitted to long droughts. Relationships are also found between the CI and the mean absolute deviation, MAD, and the optimum autoregressive order, OAO, of an ARIMA( p, d,0) autoregressive process applied to the DSL series. The detailed analysis of the discrepancies between empiric and predicted DSL underlines the uncertainty over predictability of long DSL, particularly for the Mediterranean region.

Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

2011-01-01

This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume. PMID:22203886

Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

PubMed

Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

2011-01-01

This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

Modelling space of spread Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Central Java use spatial durbin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ispriyanti, Dwi; Prahutama, Alan; Taryono, Arkadina PN

2018-05-01

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial Durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. By using queen contiguity and rook contiguity, the best model produced is the SDM model with queen contiguity because it has the smallest AIC value of 494,12. Factors that generally affect the spread of DHF in Central Java Province are the number of population and the average length of school.

Bioreducible Fluorinated Peptide Dendrimers Capable of Circumventing Various Physiological Barriers for Highly Efficient and Safe Gene Delivery.

PubMed

Cai, Xiaojun; Jin, Rongrong; Wang, Jiali; Yue, Dong; Jiang, Qian; Wu, Yao; Gu, Zhongwei

2016-03-09

Polymeric vectors have shown great promise in the development of safe and efficient gene delivery systems; however, only a few have been developed in clinical settings due to poor transport across multiple physiological barriers. To address this issue and promote clinical translocation of polymeric vectors, a new type of polymeric vector, bioreducible fluorinated peptide dendrimers (BFPDs), was designed and synthesized by reversible cross-linking of fluorinated low generation peptide dendrimers. Through masterly integration all of the features of reversible cross-linking, fluorination, and polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxane (POSS) core-based peptide dendrimers, this novel vector exhibited lots of unique features, including (i) inactive surface to resist protein interactions; (ii) virus-mimicking surface topography to augment cellular uptake; (iii) fluorination-mediated efficient cellular uptake, endosome escape, cytoplasm trafficking, and nuclear entry, and (iv) disulfide-cleavage-mediated polyplex disassembly and DNA release that allows efficient DNA transcription. Noteworthy, all of these features are functionally important and can synergistically facilitate DNA transport from solution to the nucleus. As a consequences, BFPDs showed excellent gene transfection efficiency in several cell lines (∼95% in HEK293 cells) and superior biocompatibility compared with polyethylenimine (PEI). Meanwhile BFPDs provided excellent serum resistance in gene delivery. More importantly, BFPDs offer considerable in vivo gene transfection efficiency (in muscular tissues and in HepG2 tumor xenografts), which was approximately 77-fold higher than that of PEI in luciferase activity. These results suggest bioreducible fluorinated peptide dendrimers are a new class of highly efficient and safe gene delivery vectors and should be used in clinical settings.

The Bartonella quintana Extracytoplasmic Function Sigma Factor RpoE Has a Role in Bacterial Adaptation to the Arthropod Vector Environment

PubMed Central

Abromaitis, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Bartonella quintana is a vector-borne bacterial pathogen that causes fatal disease in humans. During the infectious cycle, B. quintana transitions from the hemin-restricted human bloodstream to the hemin-rich body louse vector. Because extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factors often regulate adaptation to environmental changes, we hypothesized that a previously unstudied B. quintana ECF sigma factor, RpoE, is involved in the transition from the human host to the body louse vector. The genomic context of B. quintana rpoE identified it as a member of the ECF15 family of sigma factors found only in alphaproteobacteria. ECF15 sigma factors are believed to be the master regulators of the general stress response in alphaproteobacteria. In this study, we examined the B. quintana RpoE response to two stressors that are encountered in the body louse vector environment, a decreased temperature and an increased hemin concentration. We determined that the expression of rpoE is significantly upregulated at the body louse (28°C) versus the human host (37°C) temperature. rpoE expression also was upregulated when B. quintana was exposed to high hemin concentrations. In vitro and in vivo analyses demonstrated that RpoE function is regulated by a mechanism involving the anti-sigma factor NepR and the response regulator PhyR. The ΔrpoE ΔnepR mutant strain of B. quintana established that RpoE-mediated transcription is important in mediating the tolerance of B. quintana to high hemin concentrations. We present the first analysis of an ECF15 sigma factor in a vector-borne human pathogen and conclude that RpoE has a role in the adaptation of B. quintana to the hemin-rich arthropod vector environment. PMID:23564167

Effect of noise in principal component analysis with an application to ozone pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsakiri, Katerina G.

This thesis analyzes the effect of independent noise in principal components of k normally distributed random variables defined by a covariance matrix. We prove that the principal components as well as the canonical variate pairs determined from joint distribution of original sample affected by noise can be essentially different in comparison with those determined from the original sample. However when the differences between the eigenvalues of the original covariance matrix are sufficiently large compared to the level of the noise, the effect of noise in principal components and canonical variate pairs proved to be negligible. The theoretical results are supported by simulation study and examples. Moreover, we compare our results about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors in the two dimensional case with other models examined before. This theory can be applied in any field for the decomposition of the components in multivariate analysis. One application is the detection and prediction of the main atmospheric factor of ozone concentrations on the example of Albany, New York. Using daily ozone, solar radiation, temperature, wind speed and precipitation data, we determine the main atmospheric factor for the explanation and prediction of ozone concentrations. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into the global term component which describes the long term trend and the seasonal variations, and the synoptic scale component which describes the short term variations. By using the Canonical Correlation Analysis, we show that solar radiation is the only main factor between the atmospheric variables considered here for the explanation and prediction of the global and synoptic scale component of ozone. The global term components are modeled by a linear regression model, while the synoptic scale components by a vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the synoptic scale ozone component was found to be the highest when we consider the synoptic scale component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature. KEY WORDS: multivariate analysis; principal component; canonical variate pairs; eigenvalue; eigenvector; ozone; solar radiation; spectral decomposition; Kalman filter; time series prediction

Interleukin 10 mediated by herpes simplex virus vectors suppresses neuropathic pain induced by human immunodeficiency virus gp120 in rats.

PubMed

Zheng, Wenwen; Huang, Wan; Liu, Shue; Levitt, Roy C; Candiotti, Keith A; Lubarsky, David A; Hao, Shuanglin

2014-09-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated sensory neuropathy is a common neurological complication of HIV infection affecting up to 30% of HIV-positive individuals. However, the exact neuropathological mechanisms remain unknown, which hinders our ability to develop effective treatments for HIV-related neuropathic pain (NP). In this study, we tested the hypothesis that inhibition of proinflammatory factors with overexpression of interleukin (IL)-10 reduces HIV-related NP in a rat model. NP was induced by the application of recombinant HIV-1 envelope protein gp120 into the sciatic nerve. The hindpaws of rats were inoculated with nonreplicating herpes simplex virus (HSV) vectors expressing anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 or control vector. Mechanical threshold was tested using von Frey filaments before and after treatments with the vectors. The mechanical threshold response was assessed over time using the area under curves. The expression of phosphorylated p38 mitogen-activated kinase, tumor necrosis factor-α, stromal cell-derived factor-1α, and C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 in both the lumbar spinal cord and the L4/5 dorsal root ganglia (DRG), was examined at 14 and 28 days after vector inoculation using Western blots. We found that in the gp120-induced NP model, IL-10 overexpression mediated by the HSV vector resulted in a significant elevation of the mechanical threshold that was apparent on day 3 after vector inoculation compared with the control vector (P < 0.001). The antiallodynic effect of the single HSV vector inoculation expressing IL-10 lasted >28 days. The area under curve in the HSV vector expressing IL-10 was increased compared with that in the control vector (P < 0.0001). HSV vectors expressing IL-10 reversed the upregulation of phosphorylated p38 mitogen-activated kinase, tumor necrosis factor-α, stromal cell-derived factor-1α, and C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 expression at 14 and/or 28 days in the DRG and/or the spinal dorsal horn. Our studies demonstrate that blocking the signaling of these proinflammatory molecules in the DRG and/or the spinal cord using the HSV vector expressing IL-10 is able to reduce HIV-related NP. These results provide new insights on the potential mechanisms of HIV-associated NP and a proof of concept for treating painful HIV sensory neuropathy with this type of gene therapy.

Multivariate Granger causality: an estimation framework based on factorization of the spectral density matrix

PubMed Central

Wen, Xiaotong; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

2013-01-01

Granger causality is increasingly being applied to multi-electrode neurophysiological and functional imaging data to characterize directional interactions between neurons and brain regions. For a multivariate dataset, one might be interested in different subsets of the recorded neurons or brain regions. According to the current estimation framework, for each subset, one conducts a separate autoregressive model fitting process, introducing the potential for unwanted variability and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality. It is based on spectral density matrix factorization and offers the advantage that the estimation of such a matrix needs to be done only once for the entire multivariate dataset. For any subset of recorded data, Granger causality can be calculated through factorizing the appropriate submatrix of the overall spectral density matrix. PMID:23858479

Electromagnetic and axial-vector form factors of the quarks and nucleon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahiya, Harleen; Randhawa, Monika

2017-11-01

In light of the improved precision of the experimental measurements and enormous theoretical progress, the nucleon form factors have been evaluated with an aim to understand how the static properties and dynamical behavior of nucleons emerge from the theory of strong interactions between quarks. We have analyzed the vector and axial-vector nucleon form factors (GE,Mp,n(Q2) and GAp,n(Q2)) using the spin observables in the chiral constituent quark model (χCQM) which has made a significant contribution to the unraveling of the internal structure of the nucleon in the nonperturbative regime. We have also presented a comprehensive analysis of the flavor decomposition of the form factors (GEq(Q2), GMq(Q2) and GAq(Q2) for q = u,d,s) within the framework of χCQM with emphasis on the extraction of the strangeness form factors which are fundamental to determine the spin structure and test the chiral symmetry breaking effects in the nucleon. The Q2 dependence of the vector and axial-vector form factors of the nucleon has been studied using the conventional dipole form of parametrization. The results are in agreement with the available experimental data.

Model-Based Referenceless Quality Metric of 3D Synthesized Images Using Local Image Description.

PubMed

Gu, Ke; Jakhetiya, Vinit; Qiao, Jun-Fei; Li, Xiaoli; Lin, Weisi; Thalmann, Daniel

2017-07-28

New challenges have been brought out along with the emerging of 3D-related technologies such as virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and mixed reality (MR). Free viewpoint video (FVV), due to its applications in remote surveillance, remote education, etc, based on the flexible selection of direction and viewpoint, has been perceived as the development direction of next-generation video technologies and has drawn a wide range of researchers' attention. Since FVV images are synthesized via a depth image-based rendering (DIBR) procedure in the "blind" environment (without reference images), a reliable real-time blind quality evaluation and monitoring system is urgently required. But existing assessment metrics do not render human judgments faithfully mainly because geometric distortions are generated by DIBR. To this end, this paper proposes a novel referenceless quality metric of DIBR-synthesized images using the autoregression (AR)-based local image description. It was found that, after the AR prediction, the reconstructed error between a DIBR-synthesized image and its AR-predicted image can accurately capture the geometry distortion. The visual saliency is then leveraged to modify the proposed blind quality metric to a sizable margin. Experiments validate the superiority of our no-reference quality method as compared with prevailing full-, reduced- and no-reference models.

Analytic calculation of finite-population reproductive numbers for direct- and vector-transmitted diseases with homogeneous mixing.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay; Dushoff, Jonathan

2014-05-01

The basic reproductive number, R0, provides a foundation for evaluating how various factors affect the incidence of infectious diseases. Recently, it has been suggested that, particularly for vector-transmitted diseases, R0 should be modified to account for the effects of finite host population within a single disease transmission generation. Here, we use a transmission factor approach to calculate such "finite-population reproductive numbers," under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, for both vector-borne and directly transmitted diseases. In the case of vector-borne diseases, we estimate finite-population reproductive numbers for both host-to-host and vector-to-vector generations, assuming that the vector population is effectively infinite. We find simple, interpretable formulas for all three of these quantities. In the direct case, we find that finite-population reproductive numbers diverge from R0 before R0 reaches half of the population size. In the vector-transmitted case, we find that the host-to-host number diverges at even lower values of R0, while the vector-to-vector number diverges very little over realistic parameter ranges.

Use of prospective hospital surveillance data to define spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria risk in coastal Kenya.

PubMed

Bisanzio, Donal; Mutuku, Francis; LaBeaud, Angelle D; Mungai, Peter L; Muinde, Jackson; Busaidy, Hajara; Mukoko, Dunstan; King, Charles H; Kitron, Uriel

2015-12-01

Malaria in coastal Kenya shows spatial heterogeneity and seasonality, which are important factors to account for when planning an effective control system. Routinely collected data at health facilities can be used as a cost-effective method to acquire information on malaria risk for large areas. Here, data collected at one specific hospital in coastal Kenya were used to assess the ability of such passive surveillance to capture spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and effectiveness of an augmented control system. Fever cases were tested for malaria at Msambweni sub-County Referral Hospital, Kwale County, Kenya, from October 2012 to March 2015. Remote sensing data were used to classify the development level of each monitored community and to identify the presence of rice fields nearby. An entomological study was performed to acquire data on the seasonality of malaria vectors in the study area. Rainfall data were obtained from a weather station located in proximity of the study area. Spatial analysis was applied to investigate spatial patterns of malarial and non-malarial fever cases. A space-time Bayesian model was performed to evaluate risk factors and identify locations at high malaria risk. Vector seasonality was analysed using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Among the 25,779 tested febrile cases, 28.7 % were positive for Plasmodium infection. Malarial and non-malarial fever cases showed a marked spatial heterogeneity. High risk of malaria was linked to patient age, community development level and presence of rice fields. The peak of malaria prevalence was recorded close to rainy seasons, which correspond to periods of high vector abundance. Results from the Bayesian model identified areas with significantly high malaria risk. The model also showed that the low prevalence of malaria recorded during late 2012 and early 2013 was associated with a large-scale bed net distribution initiative in the study area during mid-2012. The results indicate that the use of passive surveillance was an effective method to detect spatiotemporal patterns of malaria risk in coastal Kenya. Furthermore, it was possible to estimate the impact of extensive bed net distribution on malaria prevalence among local fever cases over time. Passive surveillance based on georeferenced malaria testing is an important tool that control agencies can use to improve the effectiveness of interventions targeting malaria (and other causes of fever) in such high-risk locations.

Development of novel types of plastid transformation vectors and evaluation of factors controlling expression.

PubMed

Herz, Stefan; Füssl, Monika; Steiger, Sandra; Koop, Hans-Ulrich

2005-12-01

Two new vector types for plastid transformation were developed and uidA reporter gene expression was compared to standard transformation vectors. The first vector type does not contain any plastid promoter, instead it relies on extension of existing plastid operons and was therefore named "operon-extension" vector. When a strongly expressed plastid operon like psbA was extended by the reporter gene with this vector type, the expression level was superior to that of a standard vector under control of the 16S rRNA promoter. Different insertion sites, promoters and 5'-UTRs were analysed for their effect on reporter gene expression with standard and operon-extension vectors. The 5'-UTR of phage 7 gene 10 in combination with a modified N-terminus was found to yield the highest expression levels. Expression levels were also strongly dependent on external factors like plant or leaf age or light intensity. In the second vector type, named "split" plastid transformation vector, modules of the expression cassette were distributed on two separate vectors. Upon co-transformation of plastids with these vectors, the complete expression cassette became inserted into the plastome. This result can be explained by successive co-integration of the split vectors and final loop-out recombination of the duplicated sequences. The split vector concept was validated with different vector pairs.

AR(p) -based detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.

2018-07-01

Autoregressive models are commonly used for modeling time-series from nature, economics and finance. This work explored simple autoregressive AR(p) models to remove long-term trends in detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Crude oil prices and bitcoin exchange rate were considered, with the former corresponding to a mature market and the latter to an emergent market. Results showed that AR(p) -based DFA performs similar to traditional DFA. However, the former DFA provides information on stability of long-term trends, which is valuable for understanding and quantifying the dynamics of complex time series from financial systems.

Eco-bio-social determinants for house infestation by non-domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

PubMed

Dumonteil, Eric; Nouvellet, Pierre; Rosecrans, Kathryn; Ramirez-Sierra, Maria Jesus; Gamboa-León, Rubi; Cruz-Chan, Vladimir; Rosado-Vallado, Miguel; Gourbière, Sébastien

2013-01-01

Chagas disease is a vector-borne disease of major importance in the Americas. Disease prevention is mostly limited to vector control. Integrated interventions targeting ecological, biological and social determinants of vector-borne diseases are increasingly used for improved control. We investigated key factors associated with transient house infestation by T. dimidiata in rural villages in Yucatan, Mexico, using a mixed modeling approach based on initial null-hypothesis testing followed by multimodel inference and averaging on data from 308 houses from three villages. We found that the presence of dogs, chickens and potential refuges, such as rock piles, in the peridomicile as well as the proximity of houses to vegetation at the periphery of the village and to public light sources are major risk factors for infestation. These factors explain most of the intra-village variations in infestation. These results underline a process of infestation distinct from that of domiciliated triatomines and may be used for risk stratification of houses for both vector surveillance and control. Combined integrated vector interventions, informed by an Ecohealth perspective, should aim at targeting several of these factors to effectively reduce infestation and provide sustainable vector control.

Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

2014-05-01

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgin, Ferhat I.

My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected by the previous quarter's mark-up. Essay 3 empirically examines the determinants of the trade balance for a small oil exporting country within the context of Kazakhstan. The dominant theory by Harberger-Lauren-Metzler (HML) predicts that positive terms of trade shocks will improve the trade balance in the short run, but will fade away in the long run. I estimate cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) to study the long-run and short-run impacts on the trade balance. The results suggest that, in the long run, an increase in the terms of trade has a positive effect on the trade balance, an increase in GDP and appreciation of the real effective exchange rate have negative effect on the trade balance. In the short run, the terms of trade has a direct positive impact on the trade balance, real income and real exchange rate. On the other hand, appreciation of the currency has a negative impact on the trade balance. The error correction term, which represents the deviation from the long- run equilibrium between the trade balance, real income, terms of trade and real exchange rate, has a negative effect on the growth rate of the trade balance. These results provide further evidence to the idea that, in the long run, the HML effect not only depends on the duration of the shock, but also depends on the structure of the economy.

Synergic effects of mycoplasmal lipopeptides and extracellular ATP on activation of macrophages.

PubMed

Into, Takeshi; Fujita, Mari; Okusawa, Tsugumi; Hasebe, Akira; Morita, Manabu; Shibata, Ken-Ichiro

2002-07-01

Mycoplasmal lipopeptides S-(2,3-bispalmitoyloxypropyl)-CGDPKHSPKSF and S-(2,3-bispalmitoyloxypropyl)-CGNNDESNISFKEK activated a monocytic cell line, THP-1 cells, to produce tumor necrosis factor alpha. The activity of the lipopeptides was augmented by ATP in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, the level of expression of mRNAs for tumor necrosis factor alpha and interleukin-1 beta, -6, and -8 was also upregulated by the lipopeptides and/or extracellular ATP, but that of interleukin-10 was not. The P2X purinergic receptor antagonists pyridoxal phosphate 6-azophenyl 2',4'-disulfonic acid and periodate-oxidized ATP suppressed the activity of ATP to augment the activation of THP-1 cells by the lipopeptides, suggesting that P2X receptors play important roles in the activity of ATP. The nuclear factor kappa B inhibitor dexamethasone also suppressed the activity, suggesting that the activity of ATP is dependent upon the nuclear factor kappa B. Thus, these results suggest that the interaction of extracellular ATP with the P2X receptors is attributed to the activity of ATP to augment the activation of THP-1 cells by mycoplasmal lipopeptides.

Vector processing efficiency of plasma MHD codes by use of the FACOM 230-75 APU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuura, T.; Tanaka, Y.; Naraoka, K.; Takizuka, T.; Tsunematsu, T.; Tokuda, S.; Azumi, M.; Kurita, G.; Takeda, T.

1982-06-01

In the framework of pipelined vector architecture, the efficiency of vector processing is assessed with respect to plasma MHD codes in nuclear fusion research. By using a vector processor, the FACOM 230-75 APU, the limit of the enhancement factor due to parallelism of current vector machines is examined for three numerical codes based on a fluid model. Reasonable speed-up factors of approximately 6,6 and 4 times faster than the highly optimized scalar version are obtained for ERATO (linear stability code), AEOLUS-R1 (nonlinear stability code) and APOLLO (1-1/2D transport code), respectively. Problems of the pipelined vector processors are discussed from the viewpoint of restructuring, optimization and choice of algorithms. In conclusion, the important concept of "concurrency within pipelined parallelism" is emphasized.

Nucleon form factors with 2+1 flavor dynamical domain-wall fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Takeshi; Aoki, Yasumichi; Blum, Tom; Lin, Huey-Wen; Ohta, Shigemi; Sasaki, Shoichi; Tweedie, Robert; Zanotti, James

2009-06-01

We report our numerical lattice QCD calculations of the isovector nucleon form factors for the vector and axial-vector currents: the vector, induced tensor, axial-vector, and induced pseudoscalar form factors. The calculation is carried out with the gauge configurations generated with Nf=2+1 dynamical domain-wall fermions and Iwasaki gauge actions at β=2.13, corresponding to a cutoff a-1=1.73GeV, and a spatial volume of (2.7fm)3. The up and down-quark masses are varied so the pion mass lies between 0.33 and 0.67 GeV while the strange quark mass is about 12% heavier than the physical one. We calculate the form factors in the range of momentum transfers, 0.26 is required to ensure that finite-volume effects are below 1%.

Assessment of hypoxia and TNF-alpha response by a vector with HRE and NF-kappaB response elements.

PubMed

Chen, Zhilin; Eadie, Ashley L; Hall, Sean R; Ballantyne, Laurel; Ademidun, David; Tse, M Yat; Pang, Stephen C; Melo, Luis G; Ward, Christopher A; Brunt, Keith R

2017-01-01

Hypoxia and inflammatory cytokine activation (H&I) are common processes in many acute and chronic diseases. Thus, a single vector that responds to both hypoxia and inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-alpha, is useful for assesing the severity of such diseases. Adaptation to hypoxia is regulated primarily by hypoxia inducible transcription factor (HIF alpha) nuclear proteins that engage genes containing a hypoxia response element (HRE). Inflammation activates a multitude of cytokines, including TNF-alpha, that invariably modulate activation of the nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kB) transcription factor. We constructed a vector that encompassed both a hypoxia response element (HRE), and a NF-kappaB responsive element. We show that this vector was functionally responsive to both hypoxia and TNF-alpha, in vitro and in vivo . Thus, this vector might be suitable for the detection and assessment of hypoxia or TNF-alpha.

Cytokine and estrogen stimulation of endothelial cells augments activation of the prekallikrein-high molecular weight kininogen complex: Implications for hereditary angioedema.

PubMed

Joseph, Kusumam; Tholanikunnel, Baby G; Kaplan, Allen P

2017-07-01

When the prekallikrein-high molecular weight kininogen complex is bound to endothelial cells, prekallikrein is stoichiometrically converted to kallikrein because of release of heat shock protein-90 (Hsp90). Although bradykinin formation is typically initiated by factor XII autoactivation, it is also possible to activate factor XII either by kallikrein, thus formed, or by plasmin. Because attacks of hereditary angioedema can be related to infection and/or exposure to estrogen, we questioned whether estrogen or cytokine stimulation of endothelial cells could augment release of Hsp90 and prekallikrein activation. We also tested release of profibrinolytic enzymes, urokinase, and tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) as a source for plasmin formation. Cells were stimulated with agonists, and secretion of Hsp90, urokinase, and TPA was measured in the culture supernatants by ELISA. Activation of the prekallikrein-HK complex was measured by using pro-phe-arg-p-nitroanilide reflecting kallikrein formation. Hsp90 release was stimulated with optimal doses of estradiol, IL-1, and TNF-α (10 ng/mL) from 15 minutes to 120 minutes. TPA release was not augmented by any of the agonists tested but urokinase was released by IL-1, TNF-α, and thrombin (positive control), but not estrogen. Augmented activation of the prekallikrein-HK complex to generate kallikrein was seen with each agonist that releases Hsp90. Addition of 0.1% factor XII relative to prekallikrein-HK leads to rapid formation of kallikrein; factor XII alone does not autoactivate. IL-1, TNF-α, and estrogen stimulate release of Hsp90 and augment activation of the prekallikrein-HK complex to generate kallikrein and bradykinin. IL-1 and TNF-α stimulate release of urokinase, which can convert plasminogen to plasmin and represents a possible source for plasmin generation in all types of hereditary angioedema, but particularly hereditary angioedema with normal C1 inhibitor with a factor XII mutation. Both kallikrein and plasmin activate factor XII; kallikrein is 20 times more potent on a molar basis. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus.

PubMed

Ciota, Alexander T; Kramer, Laura D

2013-12-09

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.

Vector-Virus Interactions and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

PubMed Central

Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.

2013-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission. PMID:24351794

Oxytocin Augmentation in Spontaneously Laboring, Nulliparous Women: Multilevel Assessment of Maternal BMI and Oxytocin Dose

PubMed Central

Carlson, Nicole S.; Corwin, Elizabeth J.; Lowe, Nancy K.

2017-01-01

Background Synthetic oxytocin, the primary tool for labor augmentation, is less effective among obese women, leading to more unplanned cesarean deliveries for slow labor progress. It is not known if obese women require higher doses of oxytocin due to maternal, fetal, or labor factors related to maternal obesity. Objectives This study had two main objectives: 1) Examine the influence of maternal body mass index (BMI) on hourly doses of oxytocin from augmentation initiation until vaginal delivery in obese women; and 2) Examine the influence of other maternal, fetal, and labor factors on hourly doses of oxytocin in obese women. Study design Longitudinal study of a cohort (N = 136) of healthy, nulliparous, spontaneously laboring obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) who received oxytocin augmentation and achieved vaginal delivery. We performed iterative multilevel analyses to examine the influence of maternal BMI and other factors on hourly oxytocin doses. Results Maternal BMI explained 16.56% (95% CI [13.7-20.04], p < 0.001) of the variance in hourly oxytocin doses received in a multilevel model controlling for influence of maternal, fetal, and labor characteristics. Maternal age, gestational age, status of amniotic membranes at hospital admission, and admission cervical dilation examination were not significant; however, neonatal birthweight and cervical dilation at oxytocin initiation were significant predictors of hourly oxytocin dose in these women (p < 0.001). Conclusions Even when parturition preparation has progressed adequately for spontaneous labor initiation, there still may be some obesity-related blunting of myometrial contractility and response to oxytocin used for augmentation. PMID:28347147

Oxytocin Augmentation in Spontaneously Laboring, Nulliparous Women: Multilevel Assessment of Maternal BMI and Oxytocin Dose.

PubMed

Carlson, Nicole S; Corwin, Elizabeth J; Lowe, Nancy K

2017-07-01

Synthetic oxytocin, the primary tool for labor augmentation, is less effective among obese women, leading to more unplanned cesarean deliveries for slow labor progress. It is not known if obese women require higher doses of oxytocin due to maternal, fetal, or labor factors related to maternal obesity. This study had two main objectives: (1) examine the influence of maternal body mass index (BMI) on hourly doses of oxytocin from augmentation initiation until vaginal delivery in obese women; and (2) examine the influence of other maternal, fetal, and labor factors on hourly doses of oxytocin in obese women. Longitudinal study of a cohort ( N = 136) of healthy, nulliparous, spontaneously laboring obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) who received oxytocin augmentation and achieved vaginal delivery. We performed iterative multilevel analyses to examine the influence of maternal BMI and other factors on hourly oxytocin doses. Maternal BMI explained 16.56% (95% confidence interval [CI] = [13.7, 20.04], p < .001) of the variance in hourly oxytocin doses received in a multilevel model controlling for influence of maternal, fetal, and labor characteristics. Maternal age, gestational age, status of amniotic membranes at hospital admission, and admission cervical dilation examination were not significant; however, neonatal birthweight and cervical dilation at oxytocin initiation were significant predictors of hourly oxytocin dose in these women ( p < .001). Even when parturition preparation has progressed adequately for spontaneous labor initiation, there still may be some obesity-related blunting of myometrial contractility and response to oxytocin used for augmentation.

Searching for transcription factor binding sites in vector spaces

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Computational approaches to transcription factor binding site identification have been actively researched in the past decade. Learning from known binding sites, new binding sites of a transcription factor in unannotated sequences can be identified. A number of search methods have been introduced over the years. However, one can rarely find one single method that performs the best on all the transcription factors. Instead, to identify the best method for a particular transcription factor, one usually has to compare a handful of methods. Hence, it is highly desirable for a method to perform automatic optimization for individual transcription factors. Results We proposed to search for transcription factor binding sites in vector spaces. This framework allows us to identify the best method for each individual transcription factor. We further introduced two novel methods, the negative-to-positive vector (NPV) and optimal discriminating vector (ODV) methods, to construct query vectors to search for binding sites in vector spaces. Extensive cross-validation experiments showed that the proposed methods significantly outperformed the ungapped likelihood under positional background method, a state-of-the-art method, and the widely-used position-specific scoring matrix method. We further demonstrated that motif subtypes of a TF can be readily identified in this framework and two variants called the k NPV and k ODV methods benefited significantly from motif subtype identification. Finally, independent validation on ChIP-seq data showed that the ODV and NPV methods significantly outperformed the other compared methods. Conclusions We conclude that the proposed framework is highly flexible. It enables the two novel methods to automatically identify a TF-specific subspace to search for binding sites. Implementations are available as source code at: http://biogrid.engr.uconn.edu/tfbs_search/. PMID:23244338

Enhanced immune response and protective efficacy of a Treponema pallidum Tp92 DNA vaccine vectored by chitosan nanoparticles and adjuvanted with IL-2.

PubMed

Zhao, Feijun; Wu, Yimou; Zhang, Xiaohong; Yu, Jian; Gu, Weiming; Liu, Shuangquan; Zeng, Tiebing; Zhang, Yuejun; Wang, Shiping

2011-10-01

In this study, the immune-modulatory and protective efficacy of using an interleukin-2 (IL-2) expression plasmid as a genetic adjuvant and chitosan (CS) nanoparticles as vectors to enhance a Tp92 DNA vaccine candidate were investigated in a Treponema pallidum (Tp) rabbit challenge model. CS vectoring of pTp92 or pIL-2 were both demonstrated to augment anti-Tp92 antibody levels induced by pTp92 DNA vaccines. Interestingly, the combination of CS vectored Tp92 and pIL-2 led to the greatest enhancements of anti-Tp92 antibodies and T-cell proliferation (p < 0.05). At week 10 after the first immunization, 15 of the 18 rabbits in each group were challenged with Tp Nichols strain and monitored for skin lesions and ulcer lesions. Ratios of positive skin lesions and ratios of ulcer lesions in groups immunized with pTp92 were significantly lower than those of the empty vector or PBS groups (p < 0.05), demonstrating that pTp92 immunization elicited significant protective efficacy against the Tp Nichols strain challenge. CS vectored and pIL-2 adjuvanted pTp92 immunized animals exhibited the lowest rates of positive skin and ulcer lesions. Male New Zealand white rabbits were randomly assigned to groups (n = 18/group) and immunized intramuscularly with pTp92 based plasmid DNA constructs (100 μg of DNA/rabbit/immunization). Two weeks before Tp challenge (Week 8), three rabbits from each group were used to determine cytokine measurements and fifteen rabbits from each group were used for Tp challenge studies. Intramuscular injection of pTp92 induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses and conferred protection from Tp challenge in rabbits. The use of CS as a pTp92 vector or pIL-2 as an adjuvant achieved a superior level of protective efficacy against Tp challenge, however CS vectored, IL-2 adjuvanted pTp92 immunization conferred the highest level of protective efficacy.

Reciprocal associations between negative affect, binge eating, and purging in the natural environment in women with bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Lavender, Jason M; Utzinger, Linsey M; Cao, Li; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Engel, Scott G; Mitchell, James E; Crosby, Ross D

2016-04-01

Although negative affect (NA) has been identified as a common trigger for bulimic behaviors, findings regarding NA following such behaviors have been mixed. This study examined reciprocal associations between NA and bulimic behaviors using real-time, naturalistic data. Participants were 133 women with bulimia nervosa (BN) according to the 4th edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders who completed a 2-week ecological momentary assessment protocol in which they recorded bulimic behaviors and provided multiple daily ratings of NA. A multilevel autoregressive cross-lagged analysis was conducted to examine concurrent, first-order autoregressive, and prospective associations between NA, binge eating, and purging across the day. Results revealed positive concurrent associations between all variables across all time points, as well as numerous autoregressive associations. For prospective associations, higher NA predicted subsequent bulimic symptoms at multiple time points; conversely, binge eating predicted lower NA at multiple time points, and purging predicted higher NA at 1 time point. Several autoregressive and prospective associations were also found between binge eating and purging. This study used a novel approach to examine NA in relation to bulimic symptoms, contributing to the existing literature by directly examining the magnitude of the associations, examining differences in the associations across the day, and controlling for other associations in testing each effect in the model. These findings may have relevance for understanding the etiology and/or maintenance of bulimic symptoms, as well as potentially informing psychological interventions for BN. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Application of a new hybrid model with seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) in forecasting incidence cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Yu, Lijing; Zhou, Lingling; Tan, Li; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Wei, Sheng; Nie, Shaofa

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic. In this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012. The best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA [Formula: see text] and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively -965.03, -1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend. The model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information.

Methodology for the AutoRegressive Planet Search (ARPS) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigelson, Eric; Caceres, Gabriel; ARPS Collaboration

2018-01-01

The detection of periodic signals of transiting exoplanets is often impeded by the presence of aperiodic photometric variations. This variability is intrinsic to the host star in space-based observations (typically arising from magnetic activity) and from observational conditions in ground-based observations. The most common statistical procedures to remove stellar variations are nonparametric, such as wavelet decomposition or Gaussian Processes regression. However, many stars display variability with autoregressive properties, wherein later flux values are correlated with previous ones. Providing the time series is evenly spaced, parametric autoregressive models can prove very effective. Here we present the methodology of the Autoregessive Planet Search (ARPS) project which uses Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to treat a wide variety of stochastic short-memory processes, as well as nonstationarity. Additionally, we introduce a planet-search algorithm to detect periodic transits in the time-series residuals after application of ARIMA models. Our matched-filter algorithm, the Transit Comb Filter (TCF), replaces the traditional box-fitting step. We construct a periodogram based on the TCF to concentrate the signal of these periodic spikes. Various features of the original light curves, the ARIMA fits, the TCF periodograms, and folded light curves at peaks of the TCF periodogram can then be collected to provide constraints for planet detection. These features provide input into a multivariate classifier when a training set is available. The ARPS procedure has been applied NASA's Kepler mission observations of ~200,000 stars (Caceres, Dissertation Talk, this meeting) and will be applied in the future to other datasets.

[Association between oxytocin augmentation intervals and the risk of postpartum haemorrhage].

PubMed

Loscul, C; Chantry, A-A; Caubit, L; Deneux-Tharaux, C; Goffinet, F; Le Ray, C

2016-09-01

To study the association between the duration of oxytocin augmentation intervals and the risk of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) among primiparous women in spontaneous labour. Retrospective cohort including primiparous women in spontaneous labour who received oxytocin during labour (n=454). Oxytocin augmentation intervals were dichotomized in intervals<20minutes and≥20minutes. Obstetrical and neonatal issues were analyzed according to the duration oxytocin augmentation intervals. The association between oxytocin augmentation intervals and PPH was analyzed using univariate and multivariate analysis. Oxytocin augmentation intervals were shorter than 20minutes for 43.8% of the study population. The rate of PPH was higher (9.1% vs 3.5%; P=0.014), and the use of sulprostone was more frequent (6.5% vs 3.5%; P=0.013) if oxytocin augmentation intervals were shorter than 20minutes in comparison with intervals≥20minutes. The association between oxytocin augmentation intervals and PPH remains significant after adjustment on other PPH risk factors (adjusted OR=3.48, 95% CI [1.45-8.34]). The rate of adverse neonatal issue, defined by arterial pH at birth≤7.10 and/or 5minutes score d'Apgar≤7, was higher if oxytocin augmentation intervals were<20minutes (12.1% vs 4.3%; P=0.002). Our study demonstrated an increased risk of PPH for primiparous women in spontaneous labour who received oxytocin with augmentation intervals shorter than 20minutes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Gene Augmentation Therapy for a Missense Substitution in the cGMP-Binding Domain of Ovine CNGA3 Gene Restores Vision in Day-Blind Sheep.

PubMed

Gootwine, Elisha; Abu-Siam, Mazen; Obolensky, Alexey; Rosov, Alex; Honig, Hen; Nitzan, Tali; Shirak, Andrey; Ezra-Elia, Raaya; Yamin, Esther; Banin, Eyal; Averbukh, Edward; Hauswirth, William W; Ofri, Ron; Seroussi, Eyal

2017-03-01

Applying CNGA3 gene augmentation therapy to cure a novel causative mutation underlying achromatopsia (ACHM) in sheep. Impaired vision that spontaneously appeared in newborn lambs was characterized by behavioral, electroretinographic (ERG), and histologic techniques. Deep-sequencing reads of an affected lamb and an unaffected lamb were compared within conserved genomic regions orthologous to human genes involved in similar visual impairment. Observed nonsynonymous amino acid substitutions were classified by their deleteriousness score. The putative causative mutation was assessed by producing compound CNGA3 heterozygotes and applying gene augmentation therapy using the orthologous human cDNA. Behavioral assessment revealed day blindness, and subsequent ERG examination showed attenuated photopic responses. Histologic and immunohistochemical examination of affected sheep eyes did not reveal degeneration, and cone photoreceptors expressing CNGA3 were present. Bioinformatics and sequencing analyses suggested a c.1618G>A, p.Gly540Ser substitution in the GMP-binding domain of CNGA3 as the causative mutation. This was confirmed by genetic concordance test and by genetic complementation experiment: All five compound CNGA3 heterozygotes, carrying both p.Arg236* and p.Gly540Ser mutations in CNGA3, were day-blind. Furthermore, subretinal delivery of the intact human CNGA3 gene using an adeno-associated viral vector (AAV) restored photopic vision in two affected p.Gly540Ser homozygous rams. The c.1618G>A, p.Gly540Ser substitution in CNGA3 was identified as the causative mutation for a novel form of ACHM in Awassi sheep. Gene augmentation therapy restored vision in the affected sheep. This novel mutation provides a large-animal model that is valid for most human CNGA3 ACHM patients; the majority of them carry missense rather than premature-termination mutations.

Optimal HRF and smoothing parameters for fMRI time series within an autoregressive modeling framework.

PubMed

Galka, Andreas; Siniatchkin, Michael; Stephani, Ulrich; Groening, Kristina; Wolff, Stephan; Bosch-Bayard, Jorge; Ozaki, Tohru

2010-12-01

The analysis of time series obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) may be approached by fitting predictive parametric models, such as nearest-neighbor autoregressive models with exogeneous input (NNARX). As a part of the modeling procedure, it is possible to apply instantaneous linear transformations to the data. Spatial smoothing, a common preprocessing step, may be interpreted as such a transformation. The autoregressive parameters may be constrained, such that they provide a response behavior that corresponds to the canonical haemodynamic response function (HRF). We present an algorithm for estimating the parameters of the linear transformations and of the HRF within a rigorous maximum-likelihood framework. Using this approach, an optimal amount of both the spatial smoothing and the HRF can be estimated simultaneously for a given fMRI data set. An example from a motor-task experiment is discussed. It is found that, for this data set, weak, but non-zero, spatial smoothing is optimal. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that activated regions can be estimated within the maximum-likelihood framework.

Spectral Analysis of Ultrasound Radiofrequency Backscatter for the Detection of Intercostal Blood Vessels.

PubMed

Klingensmith, Jon D; Haggard, Asher; Fedewa, Russell J; Qiang, Beidi; Cummings, Kenneth; DeGrande, Sean; Vince, D Geoffrey; Elsharkawy, Hesham

2018-04-19

Spectral analysis of ultrasound radiofrequency backscatter has the potential to identify intercostal blood vessels during ultrasound-guided placement of paravertebral nerve blocks and intercostal nerve blocks. Autoregressive models were used for spectral estimation, and bandwidth, autoregressive order and region-of-interest size were evaluated. Eight spectral parameters were calculated and used to create random forests. An autoregressive order of 10, bandwidth of 6 dB and region-of-interest size of 1.0 mm resulted in the minimum out-of-bag error. An additional random forest, using these chosen values, was created from 70% of the data and evaluated independently from the remaining 30% of data. The random forest achieved a predictive accuracy of 92% and Youden's index of 0.85. These results suggest that spectral analysis of ultrasound radiofrequency backscatter has the potential to identify intercostal blood vessels. (jokling@siue.edu) © 2018 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Copyright © 2018 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On The Value at Risk Using Bayesian Mixture Laplace Autoregressive Approach for Modelling the Islamic Stock Risk Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miftahurrohmah, Brina; Iriawan, Nur; Fithriasari, Kartika

2017-06-01

Stocks are known as the financial instruments traded in the capital market which have a high level of risk. Their risks are indicated by their uncertainty of their return which have to be accepted by investors in the future. The higher the risk to be faced, the higher the return would be gained. Therefore, the measurements need to be made against the risk. Value at Risk (VaR) as the most popular risk measurement method, is frequently ignore when the pattern of return is not uni-modal Normal. The calculation of the risks using VaR method with the Normal Mixture Autoregressive (MNAR) approach has been considered. This paper proposes VaR method couple with the Mixture Laplace Autoregressive (MLAR) that would be implemented for analysing the first three biggest capitalization Islamic stock return in JII, namely PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLMK), and PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR). Parameter estimation is performed by employing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches.

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions.

PubMed

Ou, Lu; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ji, Linying; Molenaar, Peter C M

2017-01-01

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caceres, Gabriel

2018-01-01

One of the main obstacles in detecting faint planetary transits is the intrinsic stellar variability of the host star. The Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS) project implements statistical methodology associated with autoregressive processes (in particular, ARIMA and ARFIMA) to model stellar lightcurves in order to improve exoplanet transit detection. We also develop a novel Transit Comb Filter (TCF) applied to the AR residuals which provides a periodogram analogous to the standard Box-fitting Least Squares (BLS) periodogram. We train a random forest classifier on known Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) using select features from different stages of this analysis, and then use ROC curves to define and calibrate the criteria to recover the KOI planet candidates with high fidelity. These statistical methods are detailed in a contributed poster (Feigelson et al., this meeting).These procedures are applied to the full DR25 dataset of NASA’s Kepler mission. Using the classification criteria, a vast majority of known KOIs are recovered and dozens of new KARPS Candidate Planets (KCPs) discovered, including ultra-short period exoplanets. The KCPs will be briefly presented and discussed.

Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

2017-09-01

Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. Methods This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. Results It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. Conclusions The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan. PMID:20813066

A chitin deacetylase-like protein is a predominant constituent of tick peritrophic membrane that influences the persistence of Lyme disease pathogens within the vector.

PubMed

Kariu, Toru; Smith, Alexis; Yang, Xiuli; Pal, Utpal

2013-01-01

Ixodes scapularis is the specific arthropod vector for a number of globally prevalent infections, including Lyme disease caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi. A feeding-induced and acellular epithelial barrier, known as the peritrophic membrane (PM) is detectable in I. scapularis. However, whether or how the PM influences the persistence of major tick-borne pathogens, such as B. burgdorferi, remains largely unknown. Mass spectrometry-based proteome analyses of isolated PM from fed ticks revealed that the membrane contains a few detectable proteins, including a predominant and immunogenic 60 kDa protein with homology to arthropod chitin deacetylase (CDA), herein termed I. scapularis CDA-like protein or IsCDA. Although IsCDA is primarily expressed in the gut and induced early during tick feeding, its silencing via RNA interference failed to influence either the occurrence of the PM or spirochete persistence, suggesting a redundant role of IsCDA in tick biology and host-pathogen interaction. However, treatment of ticks with antibodies against IsCDA, one of the most predominant protein components of PM, affected B. burgdorferi survival, significantly augmenting pathogen levels within ticks but without influencing the levels of total gut bacteria. These studies suggested a preferential role of tick PM in limiting persistence of B. burgdorferi within the vector. Further understanding of the mechanisms by which vector components contribute to pathogen survival may help the development of new strategies to interfere with the infection.

Augmenting Human Performance in Remotely Piloted Aircraft.

PubMed

Gruenwald, Christina M; Middendorf, Matthew S; Hoepf, Michael R; Galster, Scott M

2018-02-01

An experiment in a program of research supporting the sense-assess-augment (SAA) framework is described. The objective is to use physiological measures to assess operator cognitive workload in remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) operations, and provide augmentation to assist the operator in times of high workload. In previous experiments, physiological measures were identified that demonstrate sensitivity to changes in workload. The current research solely focuses on the augmentation component of the SAA paradigm. This line of research uses a realistic RPA simulation with varying levels of workload. Recruited from the Midwest region were 12 individuals (6 women) to participate in the experiment. The subjects were trained to perform a surveillance task and a tracking task using RPAs. There was also a secondary task in which subjects were required to answer cognitive probes. A within subjects factorial design was employed with three factors per task. Subjective workload estimates were acquired using the NASA-TLX. Performance data were calculated using a composite scoring algorithm. Augmentation significantly improved performance and reduced workload in both tasks. In the surveillance task, augmentation increased performance from 573.78 to 679.04. Likewise, augmentation increased performance in the tracking task from 749.39 to 791.81. Augmentation was more beneficial in high workload conditions than low workload conditions. The increase in performance and decrease in workload associated with augmentation is an important and anticipated finding. This suggests that augmentation should only be provided when it is truly needed, especially if the augmentation requires additional assets and/or resources.Gruenwald CM, Middendorf MS, Hoepf MR, Galster SM. Augmenting human performance in remotely piloted aircraft. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(2):115-121.

3D Target Localization of Modified 3D MUSIC for a Triple-Channel K-Band Radar.

PubMed

Li, Ying-Chun; Choi, Byunggil; Chong, Jong-Wha; Oh, Daegun

2018-05-20

In this paper, a modified 3D multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm is proposed for joint estimation of range, azimuth, and elevation angles of K-band radar with a small 2 × 2 horn antenna array. Three channels of the 2 × 2 horn antenna array are utilized as receiving channels, and the other one is a transmitting antenna. The proposed modified 3D MUSIC is designed to make use of a stacked autocorrelation matrix, whose element matrices are related to each other in the spatial domain. An augmented 2D steering vector based on the stacked autocorrelation matrix is proposed for the modified 3D MUSIC, instead of the conventional 3D steering vector. The effectiveness of the proposed modified 3D MUSIC is verified through implementation with a K-band frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) radar with the 2 × 2 horn antenna array through a variety of experiments in a chamber.

Augmented Reality: A Brand New Challenge for the Assessment and Treatment of Psychological Disorders

PubMed Central

Chicchi Giglioli, Irene Alice; Pedroli, Elisa

2015-01-01

Augmented Reality is a new technological system that allows introducing virtual contents in the real world in order to run in the same representation and, in real time, enhancing the user's sensory perception of reality. From another point of view, Augmented Reality can be defined as a set of techniques and tools that add information to the physical reality. To date, Augmented Reality has been used in many fields, such as medicine, entertainment, maintenance, architecture, education, and cognitive and motor rehabilitation but very few studies and applications of AR exist in clinical psychology. In the treatment of psychological disorders, Augmented Reality has given preliminary evidence to be a useful tool due to its adaptability to the patient needs and therapeutic purposes and interactivity. Another relevant factor is the quality of the user's experience in the Augmented Reality system determined from emotional engagement and sense of presence. This experience could increase the AR ecological validity in the treatment of psychological disorders. This paper reviews the recent studies on the use of Augmented Reality in the evaluation and treatment of psychological disorders, focusing on current uses of this technology and on the specific features that delineate Augmented Reality a new technique useful for psychology. PMID:26339283

Augmented Reality: A Brand New Challenge for the Assessment and Treatment of Psychological Disorders.

PubMed

Chicchi Giglioli, Irene Alice; Pallavicini, Federica; Pedroli, Elisa; Serino, Silvia; Riva, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

Augmented Reality is a new technological system that allows introducing virtual contents in the real world in order to run in the same representation and, in real time, enhancing the user's sensory perception of reality. From another point of view, Augmented Reality can be defined as a set of techniques and tools that add information to the physical reality. To date, Augmented Reality has been used in many fields, such as medicine, entertainment, maintenance, architecture, education, and cognitive and motor rehabilitation but very few studies and applications of AR exist in clinical psychology. In the treatment of psychological disorders, Augmented Reality has given preliminary evidence to be a useful tool due to its adaptability to the patient needs and therapeutic purposes and interactivity. Another relevant factor is the quality of the user's experience in the Augmented Reality system determined from emotional engagement and sense of presence. This experience could increase the AR ecological validity in the treatment of psychological disorders. This paper reviews the recent studies on the use of Augmented Reality in the evaluation and treatment of psychological disorders, focusing on current uses of this technology and on the specific features that delineate Augmented Reality a new technique useful for psychology.

Nucleon form factors from quenched lattice QCD with domain wall fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Shoichi; Yamazaki, Takeshi

2008-07-01

We present a quenched lattice calculation of the weak nucleon form factors: vector [FV(q2)], induced tensor [FT(q2)], axial vector [FA(q2)] and induced pseudoscalar [FP(q2)] form factors. Our simulations are performed on three different lattice sizes L3×T=243×32, 163×32, and 123×32 with a lattice cutoff of a-1≈1.3GeV and light quark masses down to about 1/4 the strange quark mass (mπ≈390MeV) using a combination of the DBW2 gauge action and domain wall fermions. The physical volume of our largest lattice is about (3.6fm)3, where the finite volume effects on form factors become negligible and the lower momentum transfers (q2≈0.1GeV2) are accessible. The q2 dependences of form factors in the low q2 region are examined. It is found that the vector, induced tensor, and axial-vector form factors are well described by the dipole form, while the induced pseudoscalar form factor is consistent with pion-pole dominance. We obtain the ratio of axial to vector coupling gA/gV=FA(0)/FV(0)=1.219(38) and the pseudoscalar coupling gP=mμFP(0.88mμ2)=8.15(54), where the errors are statistical errors only. These values agree with experimental values from neutron β decay and muon capture on the proton. However, the root mean-squared radii of the vector, induced tensor, and axial vector underestimate the known experimental values by about 20%. We also calculate the pseudoscalar nucleon matrix element in order to verify the axial Ward-Takahashi identity in terms of the nucleon matrix elements, which may be called as the generalized Goldberger-Treiman relation.

Forecasting models for flow and total dissolved solids in Karoun river-Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmani, Mohammad Hassan; Salmani Jajaei, Efat

2016-04-01

Water quality is one of the most important factors contributing to a healthy life. From the water quality management point of view, TDS (total dissolved solids) is the most important factor and many water developing plans have been implemented in recognition of this factor. However, these plans have not been perfect and very successful in overcoming the poor water quality problem, so there are a good volume of related studies in the literature. We study TDS and the water flow of the Karoun river in southwest Iran. We collected the necessary time series data from the Harmaleh station located in the river. We present two Univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Movement Average (ARIMA) models to forecast TDS and water flow in this river. Then, we build up a Transfer Function (TF) model to formulate the TDS as a function of water flow volume. A performance comparison between the Seasonal ARIMA and the TF models are presented.

Highly efficient gene transfer in naive human T cells with a murine leukemia virus-based vector.

PubMed

Dardalhon, V; Jaleco, S; Rebouissou, C; Ferrand, C; Skander, N; Swainson, L; Tiberghien, P; Spits, H; Noraz, N; Taylor, N

2000-08-01

Retroviral vectors based on the Moloney murine leukemia virus (MuLV) have become the primary tool for gene delivery into hematopoietic cells, but clinical trials have been hampered by low transduction efficiencies. Recently, we and others have shown that gene transfer of MuLV-based vectors into T cells can be significantly augmented using a fibronectin-facilitated protocol. Nevertheless, the relative abilities of naive (CD45RA(+)) and memory (CD45RO(+)) lymphocyte subsets to be transduced has not been assessed. Although naive T cells demonstrate a restricted cytokine profile following antigen stimulation and a decreased susceptibility to infection with human immunodeficiency virus, it was not clear whether they could be efficiently infected with a MuLV vector. This study describes conditions that permitted gene transfer of an enhanced green fluorescent protein-expressing retroviral vector in more than 50% of naive umbilical cord (UC) blood and peripheral blood (PB) T cells following CD3/CD28 ligation. Moreover, treatment of naive T cells with interleukin-7 resulted in the maintenance of a CD45RA phenotype and gene transfer levels approached 20%. Finally, it was determined that parameters for optimal transduction of CD45RA(+) T cells isolated from PB and UC blood differed: transduction of the UC cells was significantly increased by the presence of autologous mononuclear cells (24.5% versus 56.5%). Because naive T cells harbor a receptor repertoire that allows them to respond to novel antigens, the development of protocols targeting their transduction is crucial for gene therapy applications. This approach will also allow the functions of exogenous genes to be evaluated in primary nontransformed naive T cells.

Quantitative evaluation of first, second, and third generation hairpin systems reveals the limit of mammalian vector-based RNAi

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Colin; Cuellar, Trinna L.; Haley, Benjamin

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Incorporating miRNA-like features into vector-based hairpin scaffolds has been shown to augment small RNA processing and RNAi efficiency. Therefore, defining an optimal, native hairpin context may obviate a need for hairpin-specific targeting design schemes, which confound the movement of functional siRNAs into shRNA/artificial miRNA backbones, or large-scale screens to identify efficacious sequences. Thus, we used quantitative cell-based assays to compare separate third generation artificial miRNA systems, miR-E (based on miR-30a) and miR-3G (based on miR-16-2 and first described in this study) to widely-adopted, first and second generation formats in both Pol-II and Pol-III expression vector contexts. Despite their unique structures and strandedness, and in contrast to first and second-generation RNAi triggers, the third generation formats operated with remarkable similarity to one another, and strong silencing was observed with a significant fraction of the evaluated target sequences within either promoter context. By pairing an established siRNA design algorithm with the third generation vectors we could readily identify targeting sequences that matched or exceeded the potency of those discovered through large-scale sensor-based assays. We find that third generation hairpin systems enable the maximal level of siRNA function, likely through enhanced processing and accumulation of precisely-defined guide RNAs. Therefore, we predict future gains in RNAi potency will come from improved hairpin expression and identification of optimal siRNA-intrinsic silencing properties rather than further modification of these scaffolds. Consequently, third generation systems should be the primary format for vector-based RNAi studies; miR-3G is advantageous due to its small expression cassette and simplified, cost-efficient cloning scheme. PMID:26786363

Eco-Bio-Social Determinants for House Infestation by Non-domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

PubMed Central

Dumonteil, Eric; Nouvellet, Pierre; Rosecrans, Kathryn; Ramirez-Sierra, Maria Jesus; Gamboa-León, Rubi; Cruz-Chan, Vladimir; Rosado-Vallado, Miguel; Gourbière, Sébastien

2013-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a vector-borne disease of major importance in the Americas. Disease prevention is mostly limited to vector control. Integrated interventions targeting ecological, biological and social determinants of vector-borne diseases are increasingly used for improved control. Methodology/principal findings We investigated key factors associated with transient house infestation by T. dimidiata in rural villages in Yucatan, Mexico, using a mixed modeling approach based on initial null-hypothesis testing followed by multimodel inference and averaging on data from 308 houses from three villages. We found that the presence of dogs, chickens and potential refuges, such as rock piles, in the peridomicile as well as the proximity of houses to vegetation at the periphery of the village and to public light sources are major risk factors for infestation. These factors explain most of the intra-village variations in infestation. Conclusions/significance These results underline a process of infestation distinct from that of domiciliated triatomines and may be used for risk stratification of houses for both vector surveillance and control. Combined integrated vector interventions, informed by an Ecohealth perspective, should aim at targeting several of these factors to effectively reduce infestation and provide sustainable vector control. PMID:24086790

Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences

PubMed Central

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-01-01

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate. PMID:25325356

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences.

PubMed

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-10-16

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.

Substitution of blood coagulation factor X-binding to Ad5 by position-specific PEGylation: Preventing vector clearance and preserving infectivity.

PubMed

Krutzke, L; Prill, J M; Engler, T; Schmidt, C Q; Xu, Z; Byrnes, A P; Simmet, T; Kreppel, F

2016-08-10

The biodistribution of adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) vector particles is heavily influenced by interaction of the particles with plasma proteins, including coagulation factor X (FX), which binds specifically to the major Ad5 capsid protein hexon. FX mediates hepatocyte transduction by intravenously-injected Ad5 vectors and shields vector particles from neutralization by natural antibodies and complement. In mice, mutant Ad5 vectors that are ablated for FX-binding become detargeted from hepatocytes, which is desirable for certain applications, but unfortunately such FX-nonbinding vectors also become sensitive to neutralization by mouse plasma proteins. To improve the properties of Ad5 vectors for systemic delivery, we developed a strategy to replace the natural FX shield by a site-specific chemical polyethylene glycol shield. Coupling of polyethylene glycol to a specific site in hexon hypervariable region 1 yielded vector particles that were protected from neutralization by natural antibodies and complement although they were unable to bind FX. These vector particles evaded macrophages in vitro and showed significantly improved pharmacokinetics and hepatocyte transduction in vivo. Thus, site-specific shielding of Ad5 vectors with polyethylene glycol rendered vectors FX-independent and greatly improved their properties for systemic gene therapy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Is the Effect of Adolescent E-cigarette Use on Smoking Onset Mediated: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Wills, Thomas A.; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Sargent, James D.; Schweitzer, Rebecca J.

2016-01-01

E-cigarette use by adolescents has been related to onset of cigarette smoking but there is little knowledge about the process(es) through which this occurs. Accordingly, we tested the role of cognitive and social factors for mediating the relation between e-cigarette use and smoking onset. A school-based survey was conducted with a baseline sample of 2,338 students in Hawaii (9th and 10th graders, mean age 14.7 years) who were surveyed in 2013 (Time 1, T1) and followed up 1 year later (Time 2, T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, cigarette smoking, demographic covariates, and four hypothesized mediators: smoking-related expectancies, prototypes, and peer affiliations as well as marijuana use. The primary structural modeling analysis, based on initial never-smokers, used an autoregressive model (entering T2 mediator values adjusted for T1 values) to test for mediational pathways in the relation between e-cigarette use at T1 and cigarette smoking status at T2. Results showed that e-cigarette use was related to all of the mediators and tests of indirect effects indicated that changes in expectancies, affiliations, and marijuana use were significant pathways in the relation between e-cigarette use and smoking onset. A direct effect from e-cigarette use to smoking onset was nonsignificant. Findings were replicated across autoregressive and prospective models. We conclude that the relation between adolescent e-cigarette use and smoking onset is in part attributable to cognitive and social processes that follow from e-cigarette use. Further research is needed to understand the relative role of nicotine and psychosocial factors in smoking onset. PMID:27669093

How is the effect of adolescent e-cigarette use on smoking onset mediated: A longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Wills, Thomas A; Gibbons, Frederick X; Sargent, James D; Schweitzer, Rebecca J

2016-12-01

E-cigarette use by adolescents has been related to onset of cigarette smoking but there is little knowledge about the process(es) through which this occurs. Accordingly, we tested the role of cognitive and social factors for mediating the relation between e-cigarette use and smoking onset. A school-based survey was conducted with a baseline sample of 2,338 students in Hawaii (9th and 10th graders, mean age 14.7 years) who were surveyed in 2013 (Time 1, T1) and followed up 1 year later (Time 2, T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, cigarette smoking, demographic covariates, and 4 hypothesized mediators: smoking-related expectancies, prototypes, and peer affiliations as well as marijuana use. The primary structural modeling analysis, based on initial never-smokers, used an autoregressive model (entering T2 mediator values adjusted for T1 values) to test for mediational pathways in the relation between e-cigarette use at T1 and cigarette smoking status at T2. Results showed that e-cigarette use was related to all of the mediators. Tests of indirect effects indicated that changes in expectancies, affiliations, and marijuana use were significant pathways in the relation between e-cigarette use and smoking onset. A direct effect from e-cigarette use to smoking onset was nonsignificant. Findings were replicated across autoregressive and prospective models. We conclude that the relation between adolescent e-cigarette use and smoking onset is in part attributable to cognitive and social processes that follow from e-cigarette use. Further research is needed to understand the relative role of nicotine and psychosocial factors in smoking onset. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Distance to health services affects local-level vaccine efficacy for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) among rural Filipino children

PubMed Central

Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Lucero, Marilla; Nohynek, Hanna; Anthamatten, Peter; Thomas, Deborah S. K.; Tallo, Veronica; Tanskanen, Antti; Quiambao, Beatriz P.; Puumalainen, Taneli; Lupisan, Socorro P.; Ruutu, Petri; Ladesma, Erma; Williams, Gail M.; Riley, Ian; Simões, Eric A. F.

2014-01-01

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood pneumococcal disease in several regions globally. We demonstrate how spatial epidemiological analysis of a PCV trial can assist in developing vaccination strategies that target specific geographic subpopulations at greater risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind vaccine trial that examined the efficacy of an 11-valent PCV among children less than 2 y of age in Bohol, Philippines. Trial data were linked to the residential location of each participant using a geographic information system. We use spatial interpolation methods to create smoothed surface maps of vaccination rates and local-level vaccine efficacy across the study area. We then measure the relationship between distance to the main study hospital and local-level vaccine efficacy, controlling for ecological factors, using spatial autoregressive models with spatial autoregressive disturbances. We find a significant amount of spatial variation in vaccination rates across the study area. For the primary study endpoint vaccine efficacy increased with distance from the main study hospital from −14% for children living less than 1.5 km from Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) to 55% for children living greater than 8.5 km from BRH. Spatial regression models indicated that after adjustment for ecological factors, distance to the main study hospital was positively related to vaccine efficacy, increasing at a rate of 4.5% per kilometer distance. Because areas with poor access to care have significantly higher VE, targeted vaccination of children in these areas might allow for a more effective implementation of global programs. PMID:24550454

New Approach To Hour-By-Hour Weather Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Q. Q.; Wang, B.

2017-12-01

Fine hourly forecast in single station weather forecast is required in many human production and life application situations. Most previous MOS (Model Output Statistics) which used a linear regression model are hard to solve nonlinear natures of the weather prediction and forecast accuracy has not been sufficient at high temporal resolution. This study is to predict the future meteorological elements including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed in a local region over a relatively short period of time at hourly level. By means of hour-to-hour NWP (Numeral Weather Prediction)meteorological field from Forcastio (https://darksky.net/dev/docs/forecast) and real-time instrumental observation including 29 stations in Yunnan and 3 stations in Tianjin of China from June to October 2016, predictions are made of the 24-hour hour-by-hour ahead. This study presents an ensemble approach to combine the information of instrumental observation itself and NWP. Use autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model to predict future values of the observation time series. Put newest NWP products into the equations derived from the multiple linear regression MOS technique. Handle residual series of MOS outputs with autoregressive (AR) model for the linear property presented in time series. Due to the complexity of non-linear property of atmospheric flow, support vector machine (SVM) is also introduced . Therefore basic data quality control and cross validation makes it able to optimize the model function parameters , and do 24 hours ahead residual reduction with AR/SVM model. Results show that AR model technique is better than corresponding multi-variant MOS regression method especially at the early 4 hours when the predictor is temperature. MOS-AR combined model which is comparable to MOS-SVM model outperform than MOS. Both of their root mean square error and correlation coefficients for 2 m temperature are reduced to 1.6 degree Celsius and 0.91 respectively. The forecast accuracy of 24- hour forecast deviation no more than 2 degree Celsius is 78.75 % for MOS-AR model and 81.23 % for AR model.

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agarwal, G. C.; Goodarzi, S. M.; Oneill, W. D.; Gottlieb, G. L.

1981-01-01

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Bayesian data augmentation methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research findings

PubMed Central

Crandell, Jamie L.; Voils, Corrine I.; Chang, YunKyung; Sandelowski, Margarete

2010-01-01

The possible utility of Bayesian methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research has been repeatedly suggested but insufficiently investigated. In this project, we developed and used a Bayesian method for synthesis, with the goal of identifying factors that influence adherence to HIV medication regimens. We investigated the effect of 10 factors on adherence. Recognizing that not all factors were examined in all studies, we considered standard methods for dealing with missing data and chose a Bayesian data augmentation method. We were able to summarize, rank, and compare the effects of each of the 10 factors on medication adherence. This is a promising methodological development in the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research. PMID:21572970

Optical Vector Receiver Operating Near the Quantum Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Lau, C.-W.

2005-05-01

An optical receiver concept for binary signals with performance approaching the quantum limit at low average-signal energies is developed and analyzed. A conditionally nulling receiver that reaches the quantum limit in the absence of background photons has been devised by Dolinar. However, this receiver requires ideal optical combining and complicated real-time shaping of the local field; hence, it tends to be difficult to implement at high data rates. A simpler nulling receiver that approaches the quantum limit without complex optical processing, suitable for high-rate operation, had been suggested earlier by Kennedy. Here we formulate a vector receiver concept that incorporates the Kennedy receiver with a physical beamsplitter, but it also utilizes the reflected signal component to improve signal detection. It is found that augmenting the Kennedy receiver with classical coherent detection at the auxiliary beamsplitter output, and optimally processing the vector observations, always improves on the performance of the Kennedy receiver alone, significantly so at low average-photon rates. This is precisely the region of operation where modern codes approach channel capacity. It is also shown that the addition of background radiation has little effect on the performance of the coherent receiver component, suggesting a viable approach for near-quantum-limited performance in high background environments.

Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

2008-02-01

Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by seasonal and weekly patterns. The authors compared several time series forecasting methods to a benchmark multiple linear regression model. The results suggest that the existing methodology proposed in the literature, multiple linear regression based on calendar variables, is a reasonable approach to forecasting daily patient volumes in the ED. However, the authors conclude that regression-based models that incorporate calendar variables, account for site-specific special-day effects, and allow for residual autocorrelation provide a more appropriate, informative, and consistently accurate approach to forecasting daily ED patient volumes.

Absorptive corrections for vector mesons: matching to complex mass scheme and longitudinal corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Pérez, L. A.; Toledo Sánchez, G.

2017-12-01

Unstable spin-1 particles are properly described by including absorptive corrections to the electromagnetic vertex and propagator, without breaking the electromagnetic gauge invariance. We show that the modified propagator can be set in a complex mass form, provided the mass and width parameters, which are properly defined at the pole, are replaced by energy dependent functions fulfilling the same requirements at the pole. We exemplify the case for the {K}* (892) vector meson, and find that the mass function deviates around 2 MeV from the Kπ threshold to the pole, and that the width function exhibits a different behavior compared to the uncorrected energy dependent width. Considering the {τ }-\\to {K}{{S}}{π }-{ν }τ decay as dominated by the {K}* (892) and {K}{\\prime * }(1410) vectors and one scalar particle, we exhibit the role of the transversal and longitudinal corrections to the vector propagator by obtaining the modified vector and scalar form factors. The modified vector form factor is found to be the same as in the complex mass form, while the scalar form factor receives a modification from the longitudinal correction to the vector propagator. A fit to the experimental Kπ spectrum shows that the phase induced by the presence of this new contribution in the scalar sector improves the description of the experimental data in the troublesome region around 0.7 GeV. Besides that, the correction to the scalar form factor is found to be negligible.

Participatory Risk Mapping of Malaria Vector Exposure in Northern South America using Environmental and Population Data

PubMed Central

Fuller, D.O.; Troyo, A.; Alimi, T.O.; Beier, J.C.

2014-01-01

Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colombia and surrounding areas based on environmental and human population data. The map was created through a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis in which expert opinion was solicited to determine key environmental and population risk factors, different fuzzy functions to standardize risk factor inputs, and variable factor weights to combine risk factors in a geographic information system. The new risk map was compared to a map of malaria cases in which cases were aggregated to the municipio (municipality) level. The relationship between mean municipio risk scores and total cases by muncípio showed a weak correlation. However, the relationship between pixel-level risk scores and vector occurrence points for two dominant vector species, Anopheles albimanus and An. darlingi, was significantly different (p < 0.05) from a random point distribution, as was a pooled point distribution for these two vector species and An. nuneztovari. Thus, we conclude that the new risk map derived based on expert opinion provides an accurate spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure rather than malaria transmission as shown by the pattern of malaria cases, and therefore it may be used to inform public health authorities as to where vector control measures should be prioritized to limit human-vector contact in future malaria outbreaks. PMID:24976656

Heavy quark form factors at two loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablinger, J.; Behring, A.; Blümlein, J.; Falcioni, G.; De Freitas, A.; Marquard, P.; Rana, N.; Schneider, C.

2018-05-01

We compute the two-loop QCD corrections to the heavy quark form factors in the case of the vector, axial-vector, scalar and pseudoscalar currents up to second order in the dimensional parameter ɛ =(4 -D )/2 . These terms are required in the renormalization of the higher-order corrections to these form factors.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: empirical modelling of the Culex pipiens abundance dynamics as a function of weather.

PubMed

Groen, Thomas A; L'Ambert, Gregory; Bellini, Romeo; Chaskopoulou, Alexandra; Petric, Dusan; Zgomba, Marija; Marrama, Laurence; Bicout, Dominique J

2017-10-26

Culex pipiens is the major vector of West Nile virus in Europe, and is causing frequent outbreaks throughout the southern part of the continent. Proper empirical modelling of the population dynamics of this species can help in understanding West Nile virus epidemiology, optimizing vector surveillance and mosquito control efforts. But modelling results may differ from place to place. In this study we look at which type of models and weather variables can be consistently used across different locations. Weekly mosquito trap collections from eight functional units located in France, Greece, Italy and Serbia for several years were combined. Additionally, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature were recorded. Correlations between lagged weather conditions and Cx. pipiens dynamics were analysed. Also seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models were fitted to describe the temporal dynamics of Cx. pipiens and to check whether the weather variables could improve these models. Correlations were strongest between mean temperatures at short time lags, followed by relative humidity, most likely due to collinearity. Precipitation alone had weak correlations and inconsistent patterns across sites. SARIMA models could also make reasonable predictions, especially when longer time series of Cx. pipiens observations are available. Average temperature was a consistently good predictor across sites. When only short time series (~ < 4 years) of observations are available, average temperature can therefore be used to model Cx. pipiens dynamics. When longer time series (~ > 4 years) are available, SARIMAs can provide better statistical descriptions of Cx. pipiens dynamics, without the need for further weather variables. This suggests that density dependence is also an important determinant of Cx. pipiens dynamics.

The Gaussian Graphical Model in Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Data.

PubMed

Epskamp, Sacha; Waldorp, Lourens J; Mõttus, René; Borsboom, Denny

2018-04-16

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in three kinds of psychological data sets: data sets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered data sets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means-the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials.

Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in nine OECD countries: bounds test approach and causality analysis.

PubMed

Hung-Pin, Lin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth (EG) in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries-United States of America (USA), Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK). The overall results indicate that (1) a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2) long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3) a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4) both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5) Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain.

Firm performance and the role of environmental management.

PubMed

Lundgren, Tommy; Zhou, Wenchao

2017-12-01

This paper analyzes the interactions between three dimensions of firm performance - productivity, energy efficiency, and environmental performance - and especially sheds light on the role of environmental management. In this context, environmental management is investments to reduce environmental impact, which may also affect firm competitiveness, in terms of change in productivity, and spur more (or less) efficient use of energy. We apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to calculate the Malmquist firm performance indexes, and a panel vector auto-regression (VAR) methodology is utilized to investigate the dynamic and causal relationship between the three dimensions of firm performance and environmental investment. Main results show that energy efficiency and environmental performance are integrated, and energy efficiency and productivity positively reinforce each other, signifying the cost saving property of more efficient use of energy. Hence, increasing energy efficiency, as advocated in many of today's energy policies, could capture multiple benefits. The results also show that improved environmental performance and environmental investments constrain next period productivity, a result that would be in contrast with the Porter hypothesis and strategic corporate social responsibility; both concepts conveying the notion that pro-environmental management can boost productivity and competitiveness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Raymer, James; Abel, Guy J.; Rogers, Andrei

2012-01-01

Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper, we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-migration rates, and a multiregional model with destination-specific out-migration rates. Vector autoregressive models are used to forecast future rates of growth, birth, death, net migration, in-migration and out-migration, and destination-specific out-migration for the North, Midlands and South regions in England. They are also used to forecast different international migration measures. The base data represent a time series of annual data provided by the Office for National Statistics from 1976 to 2008. The results illustrate how both the forecasted subpopulation totals and the corresponding prediction intervals differ for the multiregional model in comparison to other simpler models, as well as for different assumptions about international migration. The paper ends end with a discussion of our results and possible directions for future research. PMID:23236221

Classification of damage in structural systems using time series analysis and supervised and unsupervised pattern recognition techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omenzetter, Piotr; de Lautour, Oliver R.

2010-04-01

Developed for studying long, periodic records of various measured quantities, time series analysis methods are inherently suited and offer interesting possibilities for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) applications. However, their use in SHM can still be regarded as an emerging application and deserves more studies. In this research, Autoregressive (AR) models were used to fit experimental acceleration time histories from two experimental structural systems, a 3- storey bookshelf-type laboratory structure and the ASCE Phase II SHM Benchmark Structure, in healthy and several damaged states. The coefficients of the AR models were chosen as damage sensitive features. Preliminary visual inspection of the large, multidimensional sets of AR coefficients to check the presence of clusters corresponding to different damage severities was achieved using Sammon mapping - an efficient nonlinear data compression technique. Systematic classification of damage into states based on the analysis of the AR coefficients was achieved using two supervised classification techniques: Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC) and Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ), and one unsupervised technique: Self-organizing Maps (SOM). This paper discusses the performance of AR coefficients as damage sensitive features and compares the efficiency of the three classification techniques using experimental data.

Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

2016-02-01

We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

A comparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-Chuan; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Qiu, Lin

2009-08-01

SummaryDeveloping a hydrological forecasting model based on past records is crucial to effective hydropower reservoir management and scheduling. Traditionally, time series analysis and modeling is used for building mathematical models to generate hydrologic records in hydrology and water resources. Artificial intelligence (AI), as a branch of computer science, is capable of analyzing long-series and large-scale hydrological data. In recent years, it is one of front issues to apply AI technology to the hydrological forecasting modeling. In this paper, autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANNs) approaches, adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques, genetic programming (GP) models and support vector machine (SVM) method are examined using the long-term observations of monthly river flow discharges. The four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation ( R), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( E), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. Two case study river sites are also provided to illustrate their respective performances. The results indicate that the best performance can be obtained by ANFIS, GP and SVM, in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation phases.

Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Nine OECD Countries: Bounds Test Approach and Causality Analysis

PubMed Central

Hung-Pin, Lin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth (EG) in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries—United States of America (USA), Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK). The overall results indicate that (1) a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2) long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3) a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4) both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5) Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain. PMID:24558343

Reconstruction of Complex Directional Networks with Group Lasso Nonlinear Conditional Granger Causality.

PubMed

Yang, Guanxue; Wang, Lin; Wang, Xiaofan

2017-06-07

Reconstruction of networks underlying complex systems is one of the most crucial problems in many areas of engineering and science. In this paper, rather than identifying parameters of complex systems governed by pre-defined models or taking some polynomial and rational functions as a prior information for subsequent model selection, we put forward a general framework for nonlinear causal network reconstruction from time-series with limited observations. With obtaining multi-source datasets based on the data-fusion strategy, we propose a novel method to handle nonlinearity and directionality of complex networked systems, namely group lasso nonlinear conditional granger causality. Specially, our method can exploit different sets of radial basis functions to approximate the nonlinear interactions between each pair of nodes and integrate sparsity into grouped variables selection. The performance characteristic of our approach is firstly assessed with two types of simulated datasets from nonlinear vector autoregressive model and nonlinear dynamic models, and then verified based on the benchmark datasets from DREAM3 Challenge4. Effects of data size and noise intensity are also discussed. All of the results demonstrate that the proposed method performs better in terms of higher area under precision-recall curve.

A comparison of multivariate and univariate time series approaches to modelling and forecasting emergency department demand in Western Australia.

PubMed

Aboagye-Sarfo, Patrick; Mai, Qun; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Preen, David B; Stewart, Louise M; Fatovich, Daniel M

2015-10-01

To develop multivariate vector-ARMA (VARMA) forecast models for predicting emergency department (ED) demand in Western Australia (WA) and compare them to the benchmark univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and Winters' models. Seven-year monthly WA state-wide public hospital ED presentation data from 2006/07 to 2012/13 were modelled. Graphical and VARMA modelling methods were used for descriptive analysis and model fitting. The VARMA models were compared to the benchmark univariate ARMA and Winters' models to determine their accuracy to predict ED demand. The best models were evaluated by using error correction methods for accuracy. Descriptive analysis of all the dependent variables showed an increasing pattern of ED use with seasonal trends over time. The VARMA models provided a more precise and accurate forecast with smaller confidence intervals and better measures of accuracy in predicting ED demand in WA than the ARMA and Winters' method. VARMA models are a reliable forecasting method to predict ED demand for strategic planning and resource allocation. While the ARMA models are a closely competing alternative, they under-estimated future ED demand. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyzing brain networks with PCA and conditional Granger causality.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhenyu; Chen, Yonghong; Ding, Mingzhou; Wright, Paul; Lu, Zuhong; Liu, Yijun

2009-07-01

Identifying directional influences in anatomical and functional circuits presents one of the greatest challenges for understanding neural computations in the brain. Granger causality mapping (GCM) derived from vector autoregressive models of data has been employed for this purpose, revealing complex temporal and spatial dynamics underlying cognitive processes. However, the traditional GCM methods are computationally expensive, as signals from thousands of voxels within selected regions of interest (ROIs) are individually processed, and being based on pairwise Granger causality, they lack the ability to distinguish direct from indirect connectivity among brain regions. In this work a new algorithm called PCA based conditional GCM is proposed to overcome these problems. The algorithm implements the following two procedures: (i) dimensionality reduction in ROIs of interest with principle component analysis (PCA), and (ii) estimation of the direct causal influences in local brain networks, using conditional Granger causality. Our results show that the proposed method achieves greater accuracy in detecting network connectivity than the commonly used pairwise Granger causality method. Furthermore, the use of PCA components in conjunction with conditional GCM greatly reduces the computational cost relative to the use of individual voxel time series. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Turning points in nonlinear business cycle theories, financial crisis and the 2007-2008 downturn.

PubMed

Dore, Mohammed H I; Singh, Ragiv G

2009-10-01

This paper reviews three nonlinear dynamical business cycle theories of which only one (The Goodwin model) reflects the stylized facts of observed business cycles and has a plausible turning point mechanism. The paper then examines the US (and now global) financial crisis of 2008 and the accompanying downturn in the US. The paper argues that a skewed income distribution could not sustain effective demand and that over the 2001-2006 expansion demand was maintained through massive amounts of credit, with more than 50 percent of sales in the US being maintained through credit. A vector autoregression model confirms the crucial role played by credit. However legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector after the crash of 1929 and the consequent structural changes in the financial sector after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. But overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 led to a nonlinear shift due to a new realization of the poor quality of some of this debt, namely mortgage backed securities. Bankruptcies, followed by retrenchment at the banks, then led to the bursting of the credit bubble, with the possibility of a severe recession.

Predicting Language Outcomes for Children Learning Augmentative and Alternative Communication: Child and Environmental Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Nancy C.; Thiemann-Bourque, Kathy; Fleming, Kandace; Matthews, Kris

2013-01-01

Purpose: To investigate a model of language development for nonverbal preschool-age children learning to communicate with augmentative or alternative communication. Method: Ninety-three preschool children with intellectual disabilities were assessed at Time 1, and 82 of these children were assessed 1 year later, at Time 2. The outcome variable was…

Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Therapies, Combined with Augmentative Communication, Are Related to Uncinate Fasciculus Integrity in Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pardini, Matteo; Elia, Maurizio; Garaci, Francesco G.; Guida, Silvia; Coniglione, Filadelfo; Krueger, Frank; Benassi, Francesca; Gialloreti, Leonardo Emberti

2012-01-01

Recent evidence points to white-matter abnormalities as a key factor in autism physiopathology. Using Diffusion Tensor Imaging, we studied white-matter structural properties in a convenience sample of twenty-two subjects with low-functioning autism exposed to long-term augmentative and alternative communication, combined with sessions of cognitive…

High glucose augments angiotensinogen in human renal proximal tubular cells through hepatocyte nuclear factor-5

PubMed Central

Wang, Juan; Shibayama, Yuki; Kobori, Hiroyuki; Liu, Ya; Kobara, Hideki; Masaki, Tsutomu; Wang, Zhiyu

2017-01-01

High glucose has been demonstrated to induce angiotensinogen (AGT) synthesis in the renal proximal tubular cells (RPTCs) of rats, which may further activate the intrarenal renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and contribute to diabetic nephropathy. This study aimed to investigate the effects of high glucose on AGT in the RPTCs of human origin and identify the glucose-responsive transcriptional factor(s) that bind(s) to the DNA sequences of AGT promoter in human RPTCs. Human kidney (HK)-2 cells were treated with normal glucose (5.5 mM) and high glucose (15.0 mM), respectively. Levels of AGT mRNA and AGT secretion of HK-2 cells were measured by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), respectively. Consecutive 5’-end deletion mutant constructs and different site-directed mutagenesis products of human AGT promoter sequences were respectively transfected into HK-2 cells, followed by AGT promoter activity measurement through dual luciferase assay. High glucose significantly augmented the levels of AGT mRNA and AGT secretion of HK-2 cells, compared with normal glucose treatment. High glucose also significantly augmented AGT promoter activity in HK-2 cells transfected with the constructs of human AGT promoter sequences, compared with normal glucose treatment. Hepatocyte nuclear factor (HNF)-5 was found to be one of the glucose-responsive transcriptional factors of AGT in human RPTCs, since the mutation of its binding sites within AGT promoter sequences abolished the above effects of high glucose on AGT promoter activity as well as levels of AGT mRNA and its secretion. The present study has demonstrated, for the first time, that high glucose augments AGT in human RPTCs through HNF-5, which provides a potential therapeutic target for diabetic nephropathy. PMID:29053707

An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barraza-Barraza, Diana; Tercero-Gómez, Víctor G.; Beruvides, Mario G.; Limón-Robles, Jorge

2017-01-01

A wide variety of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) techniques deal with the problem of predicting the time for an asset fault. Most statistical approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be available in several practical situations. To address this issue, practitioners might require the use of self-starting approaches that consider only the available knowledge about the current degradation process and the asset operating context to update the prognostic model. Some authors use Autoregressive (AR) models for this purpose that are adequate when the asset operating context is constant, however, if it is variable, the accuracy of the models can be affected. In this paper, three autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX) were constructed, and their capability to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of a process was evaluated following the case of the aluminum crack growth problem. An existing stochastic model of aluminum crack growth was implemented and used to assess RUL estimation performance of the proposed ARX models through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Point and interval estimations were made based only on individual history, behavior, operating conditions and failure thresholds. Both analytic and bootstrapping techniques were used in the estimation process. Finally, by including recursive parameter estimation and a forgetting factor, the ARX methodology adapts to changing operating conditions and maintain the focus on the current degradation level of an asset.

Habitat Use and Selection by Giant Pandas.

PubMed

Hull, Vanessa; Zhang, Jindong; Huang, Jinyan; Zhou, Shiqiang; Viña, Andrés; Shortridge, Ashton; Li, Rengui; Liu, Dian; Xu, Weihua; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Hemin; Liu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

Animals make choices about where to spend their time in complex and dynamic landscapes, choices that reveal information about their biology that in turn can be used to guide their conservation. Using GPS collars, we conducted a novel individual-based analysis of habitat use and selection by the elusive and endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). We constructed spatial autoregressive resource utilization functions (RUF) to model the relationship between the pandas' utilization distributions and various habitat characteristics over a continuous space across seasons. Results reveal several new insights, including use of a broader range of habitat characteristics than previously understood for the species, particularly steep slopes and non-forest areas. We also used compositional analysis to analyze habitat selection (use with respect to availability of habitat types) at two selection levels. Pandas selected against low terrain position and against the highest clumped forest at the at-home range level, but no significant factors were identified at the within-home range level. Our results have implications for modeling and managing the habitat of this endangered species by illustrating how individual pandas relate to habitat and make choices that differ from assumptions made in broad scale models. Our study also highlights the value of using a spatial autoregressive RUF approach on animal species for which a complete picture of individual-level habitat use and selection across space is otherwise lacking.

Habitat Use and Selection by Giant Pandas

PubMed Central

Hull, Vanessa; Zhang, Jindong; Huang, Jinyan; Zhou, Shiqiang; Viña, Andrés; Shortridge, Ashton; Li, Rengui; Liu, Dian; Xu, Weihua; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Hemin; Liu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

Animals make choices about where to spend their time in complex and dynamic landscapes, choices that reveal information about their biology that in turn can be used to guide their conservation. Using GPS collars, we conducted a novel individual-based analysis of habitat use and selection by the elusive and endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). We constructed spatial autoregressive resource utilization functions (RUF) to model the relationship between the pandas' utilization distributions and various habitat characteristics over a continuous space across seasons. Results reveal several new insights, including use of a broader range of habitat characteristics than previously understood for the species, particularly steep slopes and non-forest areas. We also used compositional analysis to analyze habitat selection (use with respect to availability of habitat types) at two selection levels. Pandas selected against low terrain position and against the highest clumped forest at the at-home range level, but no significant factors were identified at the within-home range level. Our results have implications for modeling and managing the habitat of this endangered species by illustrating how individual pandas relate to habitat and make choices that differ from assumptions made in broad scale models. Our study also highlights the value of using a spatial autoregressive RUF approach on animal species for which a complete picture of individual-level habitat use and selection across space is otherwise lacking. PMID:27627805

Environmental and biological factors influencing Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) vector competence for West Nile Virus.

PubMed

Richards, Stephanie L; Lord, Cynthia C; Pesko, Kendra N; Tabachnick, Walter J

2010-07-01

Interactions between environmental and biological factors affect the vector competence of Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus for West Nile virus. Three age cohorts from two Cx. p. quinquefasciatus colonies were fed blood containing a low- or high-virus dose, and each group was held at two different extrinsic incubation temperatures (EIT) for 13 days. The colonies differed in the way that they responded to the effects of the environment on vector competence. The effects of mosquito age on aspects of vector competence were dependent on the EIT and dose, and they changed depending on the colony. Complex interactions must be considered in laboratory studies of vector competence, because the extent of the genetic and environmental variation controlling vector competence in nature is largely unknown. Differences in the environmental (EIT and dose) and biological (mosquito age and colony) effects from previous studies of Cx. p. quinquefasciatus vector competence for St. Louis encephalitis virus are discussed.

Disease Prediction based on Functional Connectomes using a Scalable and Spatially-Informed Support Vector Machine

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takanori; Kessler, Daniel; Scott, Clayton; Angstadt, Michael; Sripada, Chandra

2014-01-01

Substantial evidence indicates that major psychiatric disorders are associated with distributed neural dysconnectivity, leading to strong interest in using neuroimaging methods to accurately predict disorder status. In this work, we are specifically interested in a multivariate approach that uses features derived from whole-brain resting state functional connectomes. However, functional connectomes reside in a high dimensional space, which complicates model interpretation and introduces numerous statistical and computational challenges. Traditional feature selection techniques are used to reduce data dimensionality, but are blind to the spatial structure of the connectomes. We propose a regularization framework where the 6-D structure of the functional connectome (defined by pairs of points in 3-D space) is explicitly taken into account via the fused Lasso or the GraphNet regularizer. Our method only restricts the loss function to be convex and margin-based, allowing non-differentiable loss functions such as the hinge-loss to be used. Using the fused Lasso or GraphNet regularizer with the hinge-loss leads to a structured sparse support vector machine (SVM) with embedded feature selection. We introduce a novel efficient optimization algorithm based on the augmented Lagrangian and the classical alternating direction method, which can solve both fused Lasso and GraphNet regularized SVM with very little modification. We also demonstrate that the inner subproblems of the algorithm can be solved efficiently in analytic form by coupling the variable splitting strategy with a data augmentation scheme. Experiments on simulated data and resting state scans from a large schizophrenia dataset show that our proposed approach can identify predictive regions that are spatially contiguous in the 6-D “connectome space,” offering an additional layer of interpretability that could provide new insights about various disease processes. PMID:24704268

Synergic Effects of Mycoplasmal Lipopeptides and Extracellular ATP on Activation of Macrophages

PubMed Central

Into, Takeshi; Fujita, Mari; Okusawa, Tsugumi; Hasebe, Akira; Morita, Manabu; Shibata, Ken-Ichiro

2002-01-01

Mycoplasmal lipopeptides S-(2,3-bispalmitoyloxypropyl)-CGDPKHSPKSF and S-(2,3-bispalmitoyloxypropyl)-CGNNDESNISFKEK activated a monocytic cell line, THP-1 cells, to produce tumor necrosis factor alpha. The activity of the lipopeptides was augmented by ATP in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, the level of expression of mRNAs for tumor necrosis factor alpha and interleukin-1β, -6, and -8 was also upregulated by the lipopeptides and/or extracellular ATP, but that of interleukin-10 was not. The P2X purinergic receptor antagonists pyridoxal phosphate 6-azophenyl 2′,4′-disulfonic acid and periodate-oxidized ATP suppressed the activity of ATP to augment the activation of THP-1 cells by the lipopeptides, suggesting that P2X receptors play important roles in the activity of ATP. The nuclear factor κB inhibitor dexamethasone also suppressed the activity, suggesting that the activity of ATP is dependent upon the nuclear factor κB. Thus, these results suggest that the interaction of extracellular ATP with the P2X receptors is attributed to the activity of ATP to augment the activation of THP-1 cells by mycoplasmal lipopeptides. PMID:12065499

Risk factors for clavicle fracture concurrent with brachial plexus injury.

PubMed

Karahanoglu, Ertugrul; Kasapoglu, Taner; Ozdemirci, Safak; Fadıloglu, Erdem; Akyol, Aysegul; Demirdag, Erhan; Yalvac, E Serdar; Kandemir, N Omer

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for clavicle fracture concurrent with brachial plexus injuries. A retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary centre. The hospital records of 62,288 vaginal deliveries were evaluated retrospectively. There were 35 cases of brachial plexus injury. Of these patients, nine had brachial plexus injuries with clavicle fracture and 26 without clavicle fracture. The analysed risk factors for clavicle fracture concurrent with brachial plexus injury were gestational diabetes, labour induction and augmentation, prolonged second stage of labour, estimated foetal weight above 4000 g, birth weight above 4000 g, risky working hours, and the requirement of manoeuvres to free the impacted shoulder from behind the symphysis pubis. Labour augmentation with oxytocin increased the risk of clavicle fracture in cases of brachial plexus injury (OR 6.67; 95% CI 1.26-35.03). A birth weight higher than 4000 g also increased the risk of clavicle fracture. Risky working hours, gestational diabetes, estimated foetal weight higher than 4000 g, and requirement of shoulder dystocia manoeuvres did not increase the risk of clavicle fracture. Labour augmentation and actual birth weight higher than 4000 g were identified as risk factors for clavicle fracture in cases of brachial plexus injury.

RUNX1 and NF-E2 upregulation is not specific for MPNs, but is seen in polycythemic disorders with augmented HIF signaling

PubMed Central

Kapralova, Katarina; Lanikova, Lucie; Lorenzo, Felipe; Song, Jihyun; Horvathova, Monika; Divoky, Vladimir

2014-01-01

Overexpression of transcription factors runt-related transcription factor 1 (RUNX1) and nuclear factor, erythroid-derived 2 (NF-E2) was reported in granulocytes of patients with polycythemia vera and other myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Further, a transgenic mouse overexpressing the NF-E2 transgene was reported to be a model of MPN. We hypothesized that increased transcripts of RUNX1 and NF-E2 might characterize other polycythemic states with primary polycythemic features, that is, those with exaggerated erythropoiesis due to augmented erythropoietin (EPO) sensitivity. We tested the expression of RUNX1 and NF-E2 in polycythemic patients of diverse phenotypes and molecular causes. We report that RUNX1 and NF-E2 overexpression is not specific for MPN; these transcripts were also significantly elevated in polycythemias with augmented hypoxia-inducible factor activity whose erythroid progenitors were hypersensitive to EPO. RUNX1 and NF-E2 overexpression was not detected in patients with EPO receptor (EPOR) gain-of-function, suggesting distinct mechanisms by which erythroid progenitors in polycythemias with defects of hypoxia sensing and EPOR mutations exert their EPO hypersensitivity. PMID:24297870

Oxytocin and dystocia as risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: a cohort of low-risk nulliparous women.

PubMed

Bernitz, Stine; Øian, Pål; Rolland, Rune; Sandvik, Leiv; Blix, Ellen

2014-03-01

augmented and not augmented women without dystocia were compared to investigate associations between oxytocin and adverse birth outcomes. Augmented women with and without dystocia were compared, to investigate associations between dystocia and adverse birth outcomes. a cohort of low-risk nulliparous women originally included in a randomised controlled trial. the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Østfold Hospital Trust, Norway. the study population consists of 747 well defined low-risk women. incidence of oxytocin augmentation, and associations between dystocia and augmentation, and mode of delivery, transfer of newborns to the intensive care unit, episiotomy and postpartum haemorrhage. of all participants 327 (43.8%) were augmented with oxytocin of which 139 (42.5%) did not fulfil the criteria for dystocia. Analyses adjusted for possible confounders found that women without dystocia had an increased risk of instrumental vaginal birth (OR 3.73, CI 1.93-7.21) and episiotomy (OR 2.47, CI 1.38-4.39) if augmented with oxytocin. Augmented women had longer active phase if vaginally delivered and longer labours if delivered by caesarean section if having dystocia. Among women without dystocia, those augmented had higher body mass index, gave birth to heavier babies, had longer labours if vaginally delivered and had epidural analgesia more often compared to women not augmented. in low-risk nulliparous without dystocia, we found an association between the use of oxytocin and an increased risk of instrumental vaginal birth and episiotomy. careful attention should be paid to criteria for labour progression and guidelines for oxytocin augmentation to avoid unnecessary use. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[What makes an insect a vector?].

PubMed

Kampen, Helge

2009-01-01

Blood-feeding insects transmit numerous viruses, bacteria, protozoans and helminths to vertebrates. The developmental cycles of the microorganisms in their vectors and the mechanisms of transmission are generally extremely complex and the result of a long-lasting coevolution of vector and vectored pathogen based on mutual adaptation. The conditions necessary for an insect to become a vector are multiple but require an innate vector competence as a genetic basis. Next to the vector competence plenty of entomological, ecological and pathogen-related factors are decisive, given the availability of infection sources. The various modes of pathogen transmission by vectors are connected to the developmental routes of the microorganisms in their vectors. In particular, pathogens transmitted by saliva encounter a lot of cellular and acellular barriers during their migration from the insect's midgut through the hemocele into the salivary fluid, including components of the insect's immune system. With regard to intracellular development, receptor-mediated invasion mechanisms are of relevance. As an environmental factor, the temperature has a paramount impact on the vectorial roles of hematophagous insects. Not only has it a considerable influence on the duration of a pathogen's development in its vector (extrinsic incubation period) but it can render putatively vector-incompetent insects to vectors ("leaky gut" phenomenon). Equally crucial are behavioural aspects of both the insect and the pathogen such as blood host preferences, seasonal appearance and circadian biting activity on the vector's side and diurnal/nocturnal periodicity on the pathogen's side which facilitate a contact in the first place.

Input relegation control for gross motion of a kinematically redundant manipulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unseren, M.A.

1992-10-01

This report proposes a method for resolving the kinematic redundancy of a serial link manipulator moving in a three-dimensional workspace. The underspecified problem of solving for the joint velocities based on the classical kinematic velocity model is transformed into a well-specified problem. This is accomplished by augmenting the original model with additional equations which relate a new vector variable quantifying the redundant degrees of freedom (DOF) to the joint velocities. The resulting augmented system yields a well specified solution for the joint velocities. Methods for selecting the redundant DOF quantifying variable and the transformation matrix relating it to the jointmore » velocities are presented so as to obtain a minimum Euclidean norm solution for the joint velocities. The approach is also applied to the problem of resolving the kinematic redundancy at the acceleration level. Upon resolving the kinematic redundancy, a rigid body dynamical model governing the gross motion of the manipulator is derived. A control architecture is suggested which according to the model, decouples the Cartesian space DOF and the redundant DOF.« less

On feature augmentation for semantic argument classification of the Quran English translation using support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaira Batubara, Dina; Arif Bijaksana, Moch; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Research on the semantic argument classification requires semantically labeled data in large numbers, called corpus. Because building a corpus is costly and time-consuming, recently many studies have used existing corpus as the training data to conduct semantic argument classification research on new domain. But previous studies have proven that there is a significant decrease in performance when classifying semantic arguments on different domain between the training and the testing data. The main problem is when there is a new argument that found in the testing data but it is not found in the training data. This research carries on semantic argument classification on a new domain that is Quran English Translation by utilizing Propbank corpus as the training data. To recognize the new argument in the training data, this research proposes four new features for extending the argument features in the training data. By using SVM Linear, the experiment has proven that augmenting the proposed features to the baseline system with some combinations option improve the performance of semantic argument classification on Quran data using Propbank Corpus as training data.

Krylov-Subspace Recycling via the POD-Augmented Conjugate-Gradient Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlberg, Kevin; Forstall, Virginia; Tuminaro, Ray

This paper presents a new Krylov-subspace-recycling method for efficiently solving sequences of linear systems of equations characterized by varying right-hand sides and symmetric-positive-definite matrices. As opposed to typical truncation strategies used in recycling such as deflation, we propose a truncation method inspired by goal-oriented proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) from model reduction. This idea is based on the observation that model reduction aims to compute a low-dimensional subspace that contains an accurate solution; as such, we expect the proposed method to generate a low-dimensional subspace that is well suited for computing solutions that can satisfy inexact tolerances. In particular, we proposemore » specific goal-oriented POD `ingredients' that align the optimality properties of POD with the objective of Krylov-subspace recycling. To compute solutions in the resulting 'augmented' POD subspace, we propose a hybrid direct/iterative three-stage method that leverages 1) the optimal ordering of POD basis vectors, and 2) well-conditioned reduced matrices. Numerical experiments performed on solid-mechanics problems highlight the benefits of the proposed method over existing approaches for Krylov-subspace recycling.« less

Krylov-Subspace Recycling via the POD-Augmented Conjugate-Gradient Method

DOE PAGES

Carlberg, Kevin; Forstall, Virginia; Tuminaro, Ray

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new Krylov-subspace-recycling method for efficiently solving sequences of linear systems of equations characterized by varying right-hand sides and symmetric-positive-definite matrices. As opposed to typical truncation strategies used in recycling such as deflation, we propose a truncation method inspired by goal-oriented proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) from model reduction. This idea is based on the observation that model reduction aims to compute a low-dimensional subspace that contains an accurate solution; as such, we expect the proposed method to generate a low-dimensional subspace that is well suited for computing solutions that can satisfy inexact tolerances. In particular, we proposemore » specific goal-oriented POD `ingredients' that align the optimality properties of POD with the objective of Krylov-subspace recycling. To compute solutions in the resulting 'augmented' POD subspace, we propose a hybrid direct/iterative three-stage method that leverages 1) the optimal ordering of POD basis vectors, and 2) well-conditioned reduced matrices. Numerical experiments performed on solid-mechanics problems highlight the benefits of the proposed method over existing approaches for Krylov-subspace recycling.« less

Deep neural network features for horses identity recognition using multiview horses' face pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarraya, Islem; Ouarda, Wael; Alimi, Adel M.

2017-03-01

To control the state of horses in the born, breeders needs a monitoring system with a surveillance camera that can identify and distinguish between horses. We proposed in [5] a method of horse's identification at a distance using the frontal facial biometric modality. Due to the change of views, the face recognition becomes more difficult. In this paper, the number of images used in our THoDBRL'2015 database (Tunisian Horses DataBase of Regim Lab) is augmented by adding other images of other views. Thus, we used front, right and left profile face's view. Moreover, we suggested an approach for multiview face recognition. First, we proposed to use the Gabor filter for face characterization. Next, due to the augmentation of the number of images, and the large number of Gabor features, we proposed to test the Deep Neural Network with the auto-encoder to obtain the more pertinent features and to reduce the size of features vector. Finally, we performed the proposed approach on our THoDBRL'2015 database and we used the linear SVM for classification.

Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigelson, Eric

NASA's Kepler mission is the source of more exoplanets than any other instrument, but the discovery depends on complex statistical analysis procedures embedded in the Kepler pipeline. A particular challenge is mitigating irregular stellar variability without loss of sensitivity to faint periodic planetary transits. This proposal presents a two-stage alternative analysis procedure. First, parametric autoregressive ARFIMA models, commonly used in econometrics, remove most of the stellar variations. Second, a novel matched filter is used to create a periodogram from which transit-like periodicities are identified. This analysis procedure, the Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search (KARPS), is confirming most of the Kepler Objects of Interest and is expected to identify additional planetary candidates. The proposed research will complete application of the KARPS methodology to the prime Kepler mission light curves of 200,000: stars, and compare the results with Kepler Objects of Interest obtained with the Kepler pipeline. We will then conduct a variety of astronomical studies based on the KARPS results. Important subsamples will be extracted including Habitable Zone planets, hot super-Earths, grazing-transit hot Jupiters, and multi-planet systems. Groundbased spectroscopy of poorly studied candidates will be performed to better characterize the host stars. Studies of stellar variability will then be pursued based on KARPS analysis. The autocorrelation function and nonstationarity measures will be used to identify spotted stars at different stages of autoregressive modeling. Periodic variables with folded light curves inconsistent with planetary transits will be identified; they may be eclipsing or mutually-illuminating binary star systems. Classification of stellar variables with KARPS-derived statistical properties will be attempted. KARPS procedures will then be applied to archived K2 data to identify planetary transits and characterize stellar variability.

Nonrandom variability in respiratory cycle parameters of humans during stage 2 sleep.

PubMed

Modarreszadeh, M; Bruce, E N; Gothe, B

1990-08-01

We analyzed breath-to-breath inspiratory time (TI), expiratory time (TE), inspiratory volume (VI), and minute ventilation (Vm) from 11 normal subjects during stage 2 sleep. The analysis consisted of 1) fitting first- and second-order autoregressive models (AR1 and AR2) and 2) obtaining the power spectra of the data by fast-Fourier transform. For the AR2 model, the only coefficients that were statistically different from zero were the average alpha 1 (a1) for TI, VI, and Vm (a1 = 0.19, 0.29, and 0.15, respectively). However, the power spectra of all parameters often exhibited peaks at low frequency (less than 0.2 cycles/breath) and/or at high frequency (greater than 0.2 cycles/breath), indicative of periodic oscillations. After accounting for the corrupting effects of added oscillations on the a1 estimates, we conclude that 1) breath-to-breath fluctuations of VI, and to a lesser extent TI and Vm, exhibit a first-order autoregressive structure such that fluctuations of each breath are positively correlated with those of immediately preceding breaths and 2) the correlated components of variability in TE are mostly due to discrete high- and/or low-frequency oscillations with no underlying autoregressive structure. We propose that the autoregressive structure of VI, TI, and Vm during spontaneous breathing in stage 2 sleep may reflect either a central neural mechanism or the effects of noise in respiratory chemical feedback loops; the presence of low-frequency oscillations, seen more often in Vm, suggests possible instability in the chemical feedback loops. Mechanisms of high-frequency periodicities, seen more often in TE, are unknown.

Autoregressive Processes in Homogenization of GNSS Tropospheric Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.; Teferle, F. N.; Bock, O.; Pottiaux, E.; Van Malderen, R.

2016-12-01

Offsets due to changes in hardware equipment or any other artificial event are all a subject of a task of homogenization of tropospheric data estimated within a processing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observables. This task is aimed at identifying exact epochs of offsets and estimate their magnitudes since they may artificially under- or over-estimate trend and its uncertainty delivered from tropospheric data and used in climate studies. In this research, we analysed a common data set of differences of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) from GPS and ERA-Interim (1995-2010) provided for a homogenization group working within ES1206 COST Action GNSS4SWEC. We analysed daily IWV records of GPS and ERA-Interim in terms of trend, seasonal terms and noise model with Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Hector software. We found that this data has a character of autoregressive process (AR). Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different noise types: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive and also added few strictly defined offsets. This synthetic data set of exactly the same character as IWV from GPS and ERA-Interim was then subjected to a task of manual and automatic/statistical homogenization. We made blind tests and detected possible epochs of offsets manually. We found that simulated offsets were easily detected in series with white noise, no influence of seasonal signal was noticed. The autoregressive series were much more problematic when offsets had to be determined. We found few epochs, for which no offset was simulated. This was mainly due to strong autocorrelation of data, which brings an artificial trend within. Due to regime-like behaviour of AR it is difficult for statistical methods to properly detect epochs of offsets, which was previously reported by climatologists.

Calibrating the pixel-level Kepler imaging data with a causal data-driven model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dun; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Hogg, David W.; Schölkopf, Bernhard

2015-01-01

In general, astronomical observations are affected by several kinds of noise, each with it's own causal source; there is photon noise, stochastic source variability, and residuals coming from imperfect calibration of the detector or telescope. In particular, the precision of NASA Kepler photometry for exoplanet science—the most precise photometric measurements of stars ever made—appears to be limited by unknown or untracked variations in spacecraft pointing and temperature, and unmodeled stellar variability. Here we present the Causal Pixel Model (CPM) for Kepler data, a data-driven model intended to capture variability but preserve transit signals. The CPM works at the pixel level (not the photometric measurement level); it can capture more fine-grained information about the variation of the spacecraft than is available in the pixel-summed aperture photometry. The basic idea is that CPM predicts each target pixel value from a large number of pixels of other stars sharing the instrument variabilities while not containing any information on possible transits at the target star. In addition, we use the target star's future and past (auto-regression). By appropriately separating the data into training and test sets, we ensure that information about any transit will be perfectly isolated from the fitting of the model. The method has four hyper-parameters (the number of predictor stars, the auto-regressive window size, and two L2-regularization amplitudes for model components), which we set by cross-validation. We determine a generic set of hyper-parameters that works well on most of the stars with 11≤V≤12 mag and apply the method to a corresponding set of target stars with known planet transits. We find that we can consistently outperform (for the purposes of exoplanet detection) the Kepler Pre-search Data Conditioning (PDC) method for exoplanet discovery, often improving the SNR by a factor of two. While we have not yet exhaustively tested the method at other magnitudes, we expect that it should be generally applicable, with positive consequences for subsequent exoplanet detection or stellar variability (in which case we must exclude the autoregressive part to preserve intrinsic variability).

Efficacy and safety of a clinically relevant foamy vector design in human hematopoietic repopulating cells.

PubMed

Everson, Elizabeth M; Hocum, Jonah D; Trobridge, Grant D

2018-06-23

Previous studies have shown that foamy viral (FV) vectors are a promising alternative to gammaretroviral and lentiviral vectors and insulators can improve FV vector safety. However, in a previous analysis of insulator effects on FV vector safety, strong viral promoters were used to elicit genotoxic events. Here we developed and analyzed the efficacy and safety of a high-titer, clinically relevant FV vector driven by the housekeeping promoter elongation factor-1α and insulated with an enhancer blocking A1 insulator (FV-EGW-A1). Human CD34 + cord blood cells were exposed to an enhanced green fluorescent protein expressing vector, FV-EGW-A1, at a multiplicity of infection of 10 and then maintained in vitro or transplanted into immunodeficient mice. Flow cytometry was used to measure engraftment and marking in vivo. FV vector integration sites were analyzed to assess safety. FV-EGW-A1 resulted in high-marking, multi-lineage engraftment of human repopulating cells with no evidence of silencing. Engraftment was highly polyclonal with no clonal dominance and a promising safety profile based on integration site analysis. An FV vector with an elongation factor-1α promoter and an A1 insulator is a promising vector design for use in the clinic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Decidualized Human Endometrial Stromal Cells Mediate Hemostasis, Angiogenesis, and Abnormal Uterine Bleeding

PubMed Central

Lockwood, Charles J.; Krikun, Graciela; Hickey, Martha; Huang, S. Joseph; Schatz, Frederick

2011-01-01

Factor VII binds trans-membrane tissue factor to initiate hemostasis by forming thrombin. Tissue factor expression is enhanced in decidualized human endometrial stromal cells during the luteal phase. Long-term progestin only contraceptives elicit: 1) abnormal uterine bleeding from fragile vessels at focal bleeding sites, 2) paradoxically high tissue factor expression at bleeding sites; 3) reduced endometrial blood flow promoting local hypoxia and enhancing reactive oxygen species levels; and 4) aberrant angiogenesis reflecting increased stromal cell-expressed vascular endothelial growth factor, decreased Angiopoietin-1 and increased endothelial cell-expressed Angiopoietin-2. Aberrantly high local vascular permeability enhances circulating factor VII to decidualized stromal cell-expressed tissue factor to generate excess thrombin. Hypoxia-thrombin interactions augment expression of vascular endothelial growth factor and interleukin-8 by stromal cells. Thrombin, vascular endothelial growth factor and interlerukin-8 synergis-tically augment angiogenesis in a milieu of reactive oxygen species-induced endothelial cell activation. The resulting enhanced vessel fragility promotes abnormal uterine bleeding. PMID:19208784

Orbits of Two-Body Problem From the Lenz Vector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, S.; And Others

1978-01-01

Obtains the orbits with reference to the center of mass of two bodies under mutual universe square law interaction by use of the eccentricity vector which is equivalent to the Lenz vector within a numerical factor. (Author/SL)

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

Vaccine of engineered tumor cells secreting stromal cell-derived factor-1 induces T-cell dependent antitumor responses.

PubMed

Shi, Meiqing; Hao, Siguo; Su, Liping; Zhang, Xueshu; Yuan, Jinying; Guo, Xuling; Zheng, Changyu; Xiang, Jim

2005-08-01

The CXC chemokine SDF-1 has been characterized as a T-cell chemoattractant both in vitro and in vivo. To determine whether SDF-1 expression within tumors can influence tumor growth, we transfected an expression vector pCI-SDF-1 for SDF-1 into J558 myeloma cells and tested their ability to form tumors in BALB/c. Production of biologically active SDF-1 (1.2 ng/mL) was detected in the culture supernatants of cells transfected with the expression vector pCI-SDF-1. J558 cells gave rise to a 100% tumor incidence, whereas SDF-1-expressing J558/SDF-1 tumors invariably regressed in BALB/c mice and became infiltrated with CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. Regression of the J558/SDF-1 tumors was dependent on both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells. Our data also indicate that TIT cells containing both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells within J558/SDF-1 tumors express the SDF-1 receptor CXCR4, and that SDF-1 specifically chemoattracts these cells in vitro. Furthermore, immunization of mice with engineered J558/SDF-1 cells elicited the most potent protective immunity against 0.5 x 10(6) cells J558 tumor challenge in vivo, compared to immunization with the J558 alone, and this antitumor immunity mediated by J558/SDF-1 tumor cell vaccination in vivo appeared to be dependent on CD8(+) CTL. Thus, SDF-1 has natural adjuvant activities that may augment antitumor responses through their effects on T-cells and thereby could be important in gene transfer immunotherapies for some cancers.

Systemic Upregulation of IL-10 (Interleukin-10) Using a Nonimmunogenic Vector Reduces Growth and Rate of Dissecting Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

PubMed

Adam, Matti; Kooreman, Nigel; Jagger, Ann; Wagenhaeuser, Markus U; Mehrkens, Dennis; Wang, Yongming; Kayama, Yosuke; Toyama, Kensuke; Raaz, Uwe; Schellinger, Isabel N; Maegdefessel, Lars; Spin, Joshua M; Hamming, Jaap F; Quax, Paul H A; Baldus, Stephan; Wu, Joseph C; Tsao, Philip S

2018-06-07

Recruitment of immunologic competent cells to the vessel wall is a crucial step in formation of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). Innate immunity effectors (eg, macrophages), as well as mediators of adaptive immunity (eg, T cells), orchestrate a local vascular inflammatory response. IL-10 (interleukin-10) is an immune-regulatory cytokine with a crucial role in suppression of inflammatory processes. We hypothesized that an increase in systemic IL-10-levels would mitigate AAA progression. Using a single intravenous injection protocol, we transfected an IL-10 transcribing nonimmunogenic minicircle vector into the Ang II (angiotensin II)-ApoE -/- infusion mouse model of AAA. IL-10 minicircle transfection significantly reduced average aortic diameter measured via ultrasound at day 28 from 166.1±10.8% (control) to 131.0±5.8% (IL-10 transfected). Rates of dissecting AAA were reduced by IL-10 treatment, with an increase in freedom from dissecting AAA from 21.5% to 62.3%. Using flow cytometry of aortic tissue from minicircle IL-10-treated animals, we found a significantly higher percentage of CD4 + /CD25 + /Foxp3 (forkhead box P3) + regulatory T cells, with fewer CD8 + /Granzyme B + cytotoxic T cells. Furthermore, isolated aortic macrophages produced less TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor-α), more IL-10, and were more likely to be MRC1 (mannose receptor, C type 1)-positive alternatively activated macrophages. These results concurred with gene expression analysis of LPS-stimulated and Ang II-primed human peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Taken together, we provide an effective gene therapy approach to AAA in mice by enhancing antiinflammatory and dampening proinflammatory pathways through minicircle-induced augmentation of systemic IL-10 expression. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Assessment of changes of vector borne diseases with wetland characteristics using multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Sheela, A M; Sarun, S; Justus, J; Vineetha, P; Sheeja, R V

2015-04-01

Vector borne diseases are a threat to human health. Little attention has been paid to the prevention of these diseases. We attempted to identify the significant wetland characteristics associated with the spread of chikungunya, dengue fever and malaria in Kerala, a tropical region of South West India using multivariate analyses (hierarchical cluster analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression). High/medium turbid coastal lagoons and inland water-logged wetlands with aquatic vegetation have significant effect on the incidence of chikungunya while dengue influenced by high turbid coastal beaches and malaria by medium turbid coastal beaches. The high turbidity in water is due to the urban waste discharge namely sewage, sullage and garbage from the densely populated cities and towns. The large extent of wetland is low land area favours the occurrence of vector borne diseases. Hence the provision of pollution control measures at source including soil erosion control measures is vital. The identification of vulnerable zones favouring the vector borne diseases will help the authorities to control pollution especially from urban areas and prevent these vector borne diseases. Future research should cover land use cover changes, climatic factors, seasonal variations in weather and pollution factors favouring the occurrence of vector borne diseases.

Advances in biologic augmentation for rotator cuff repair

PubMed Central

Patel, Sahishnu; Gualtieri, Anthony P.; Lu, Helen H.; Levine, William N.

2016-01-01

Rotator cuff tear is a very common shoulder injury that often necessitates surgical intervention for repair. Despite advances in surgical techniques for rotator cuff repair, there is a high incidence of failure after surgery because of poor healing capacity attributed to many factors. The complexity of tendon-to-bone integration inherently presents a challenge for repair because of a large biomechanical mismatch between the tendon and bone and insufficient regeneration of native tissue, leading to the formation of fibrovascular scar tissue. Therefore, various biological augmentation approaches have been investigated to improve rotator cuff repair healing. This review highlights recent advances in three fundamental approaches for biological augmentation for functional and integrative tendon–bone repair. First, the exploration, application, and delivery of growth factors to improve regeneration of native tissue is discussed. Second, applications of stem cell and other cell-based therapies to replenish damaged tissue for better healing is covered. Finally, this review will highlight the development and applications of compatible biomaterials to both better recapitulate the tendon–bone interface and improve delivery of biological factors for enhanced integrative repair. PMID:27750374

Simple and effective generation of transgene-free induced pluripotent stem cells using an auto-erasable Sendai virus vector responding to microRNA-302.

PubMed

Nishimura, Ken; Ohtaka, Manami; Takada, Hitomi; Kurisaki, Akira; Tran, Nhi Vo Kieu; Tran, Yen Thi Hai; Hisatake, Koji; Sano, Masayuki; Nakanishi, Mahito

2017-08-01

Transgene-free induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are valuable for both basic research and potential clinical applications. We previously reported that a replication-defective and persistent Sendai virus (SeVdp) vector harboring four reprogramming factors (SeVdp-iPS) can efficiently induce generation of transgene-free iPSCs. This vector can express all four factors stably and simultaneously without chromosomal integration and can be eliminated completely from reprogrammed cells by suppressing vector-derived RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Here, we describe an improved SeVdp-iPS vector (SeVdp(KOSM)302L) that is automatically erased in response to microRNA-302 (miR-302), uniquely expressed in pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Gene expression and genome replication of the SeVdp-302L vector, which contains miRNA-302a target sequences at the 3' untranslated region of L mRNA, are strongly suppressed in PSCs. Consequently, SeVdp(KOSM)302L induces expression of reprogramming factors in somatic cells, while it is automatically erased from cells successfully reprogrammed to express miR-302. As this vector can reprogram somatic cells into transgene-free iPSCs without the aid of exogenous short interfering RNA (siRNA), the results we present here demonstrate that this vector may become an invaluable tool for the generation of human iPSCs for future clinical applications. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of computational methods for heavy lift launch vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan; Ryan, James S.

1993-01-01

The research effort has been focused on the development of an advanced flow solver for complex viscous turbulent flows with shock waves. The three-dimensional Euler and full/thin-layer Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for compressible flows are solved on structured hexahedral grids. The Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model is used for closure. The space discretization is based on a cell-centered finite-volume method augmented by a variety of numerical dissipation models with optional total variation diminishing limiters. The governing equations are integrated in time by an implicit method based on lower-upper factorization and symmetric Gauss-Seidel relaxation. The algorithm is vectorized on diagonal planes of sweep using two-dimensional indices in three dimensions. A new computer program named CENS3D has been developed for viscous turbulent flows with discontinuities. Details of the code are described in Appendix A and Appendix B. With the developments of the numerical algorithm and dissipation model, the simulation of three-dimensional viscous compressible flows has become more efficient and accurate. The results of the research are expected to yield a direct impact on the design process of future liquid fueled launch systems.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

TaiWan Ionospheric Model (TWIM) prediction based on time series autoregressive analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, L. C.; Macalalad, Ernest P.; Liu, C. H.

2014-10-01

As described in a previous paper, a three-dimensional ionospheric electron density (Ne) model has been constructed from vertical Ne profiles retrieved from the FormoSat3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate GPS radio occultation measurements and worldwide ionosonde foF2 and foE data and named the TaiWan Ionospheric Model (TWIM). The TWIM exhibits vertically fitted α-Chapman-type layers with distinct F2, F1, E, and D layers, and surface spherical harmonic approaches for the fitted layer parameters including peak density, peak density height, and scale height. To improve the TWIM into a real-time model, we have developed a time series autoregressive model to forecast short-term TWIM coefficients. The time series of TWIM coefficients are considered as realizations of stationary stochastic processes within a processing window of 30 days. These autocorrelation coefficients are used to derive the autoregressive parameters and then forecast the TWIM coefficients, based on the least squares method and Lagrange multiplier technique. The forecast root-mean-square relative TWIM coefficient errors are generally <30% for 1 day predictions. The forecast TWIM values of foE and foF2 values are also compared and evaluated using worldwide ionosonde data.

Vibration based condition monitoring of a multistage epicyclic gearbox in lifting cranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaad, Bassel; Eltabach, Mario; Antoni, Jérôme

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a model-based technique for detecting wear in a multistage planetary gearbox used by lifting cranes. The proposed method establishes a vibration signal model which deals with cyclostationary and autoregressive models. First-order cyclostationarity is addressed by the analysis of the time synchronous average (TSA) of the angular resampled vibration signal. Then an autoregressive model (AR) is applied to the TSA part in order to extract a residual signal containing pertinent fault signatures. The paper also explores a number of methods commonly used in vibration monitoring of planetary gearboxes, in order to make comparisons. In the experimental part of this study, these techniques are applied to accelerated lifetime test bench data for the lifting winch. After processing raw signals recorded with an accelerometer mounted on the outside of the gearbox, a number of condition indicators (CIs) are derived from the TSA signal, the residual autoregressive signal and other signals derived using standard signal processing methods. The goal is to check the evolution of the CIs during the accelerated lifetime test (ALT). Clarity and fluctuation level of the historical trends are finally considered as a criteria for comparing between the extracted CIs.

Principal dynamic mode analysis of neural mass model for the identification of epileptic states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Yuzhen; Jin, Liu; Su, Fei; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin

2016-11-01

The detection of epileptic seizures in Electroencephalography (EEG) signals is significant for the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy. In this paper, in order to obtain characteristics of various epileptiform EEGs that may differentiate different states of epilepsy, the concept of Principal Dynamic Modes (PDMs) was incorporated to an autoregressive model framework. First, the neural mass model was used to simulate the required intracerebral EEG signals of various epileptiform activities. Then, the PDMs estimated from the nonlinear autoregressive Volterra models, as well as the corresponding Associated Nonlinear Functions (ANFs), were used for the modeling of epileptic EEGs. The efficient PDM modeling approach provided physiological interpretation of the system. Results revealed that the ANFs of the 1st and 2nd PDMs for the auto-regressive input exhibited evident differences among different states of epilepsy, where the ANFs of the sustained spikes' activity encountered at seizure onset or during a seizure were the most differentiable from that of the normal state. Therefore, the ANFs may be characteristics for the classification of normal and seizure states in the clinical detection of seizures and thus provide assistance for the diagnosis of epilepsy.