Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.

2006-01-01

The FEWS NET mission is to identify potentially food-insecure conditions early through the provision of timely and analytical hazard and vulnerability information. U.S. Government decision-makers act on this information to authorize mitigation and response activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) FEWS NET provides tools and data for monitoring and forecasting the incidence of drought and flooding to identify shocks to the food supply system that could lead to famine. Historically focused on Africa, the scope of the network has expanded to be global coverage. FEWS NET implementing partners include the USGS, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Chemonics International.

Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

2016-12-01

East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

Review of FEWS NET Biophysical Monitoring Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, K. W.; Brown, Molly E.; Verdin, J.; Underwood, L. W.

2009-01-01

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users: it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and; subsequently, beneficial FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world, enabling a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard: that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand, and that rainfall and vegetation products were valued as data that provide actionable food security information.

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Management of famine relief.

PubMed

Mayer, J

1975-05-09

We have, over the course of time, made discoveries in compassion as well as discoveries in technology. Many problems that had been judged insoluble in the past are no longer tolerable. For many centuries, starvation was inevitable, largely because means of information and means of transportation were not at hand; the fact that there usually was more food available somewhere else on the same or another continent was irrelevant. There was no way of hearing of the famine, bringing the food where it was needed, or distributing it. We now have the knowledge to install early warning systems based on economic and on medical surveillance (8). Such data as weather reports, crop forecasts, food reserves and retail prices, height-to-weight ratios, skin fold thicknesses, and height-to-arm circumference ratios in children can warn us in advance of impending famine. We also now have the means to transport the food to the area of threatening or actual mass starvation. Therefore, we have obligations that did not exist in past generations. We are now also in a much smaller world from which some of our contemporaries have stepped out to look at the spaceship on which we are all traveling. The worldwide civil rights revolution of the 1960's has brought about greater realization that all human beings are born equal and must be preserved and helped. All this means not only that we must organize to prevent famines on a worldwide basis, but also that we must use the most modern technology to do so. The fact that famine often occurs in remote areas is no reason why we cannot use computers and other modern technology. The very need for programming computers, with the planned coding and feeding of data that it entails, not only forces preparedness but also obliges planners to examine responses to various contingencies. National and international training courses for policy-makers and managers of famine relief should follow. Even if mankind brings its resources and its population into balance, a sound organization of famine relief preparation will still be needed to cope with local contingencies. Rapid agricultural advancement, development of innovative food sources, and, above all, control of population growth are necessary if famine is not to stalk all of mankind in the future.

Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Funk, C.; Husak, G. J.; Peterson, P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Verdin, J. P.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of supporting the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) program. The use of remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pests, and changing climatic regimes has been a core activity in monitoring FEWS NET countries. In recent years, it has become a requirement that FEWS NET apply monitoring and modeling frameworks at global scales to assess emerging crises in regions that FEWS NET does not traditionally monitor. USGS FEWS NET, in collaboration with the University of California, Santa Barbara, has developed a number of new global applications of satellite observations, derived products, and efficient tools for visualization and analyses to address these requirements. (1) A 35-year quasi-global (+/- 50 degrees latitude) time series of gridded rainfall estimates, the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, based on infrared satellite imagery and station observations. Data are available as 5-day (pentadal) accumulations at 0.05 degree spatial resolution. (2) Global actual evapotranspiration data based on application of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model using 10-day MODIS Land Surface Temperature composites at 1-km resolution. (3) Production of global expedited MODIS (eMODIS) 10-day NDVI composites updated every 5 days. (4) Development of an updated Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) tool for data visualization, analysis, and sharing. (5) Creation of stand-alone tools for enhancement of gridded rainfall data and trend analyses. (6) Establishment of an agro-climatology analysis tool and knowledge base for more than 90 countries of interest to FEWS NET. In addition to these new products and tools, FEWS NET has partnered with the GEOGLAM community to develop a Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW) which brings together global expertise in agricultural monitoring to reach consensus on growing season status of "countries at risk". Such engagements will result in enhanced capabilities for extending our monitoring efforts globally.

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Brickley, Elizabeth B

2012-01-01

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Nutritional status as an indicator of impending food stress*.

PubMed

Galvin, K A

1988-06-01

Famine early warning systems benefit from a variety of indicators which together signal the initial stages of food stress for particular population groups. Anthropometry has been used as an indicator in early warning systems, but there are inherent problems in its use which should be understood. Using data from Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, this paper discusses the problems of: time lag between food shortages and changes in body size and composition; use of reference points; accurate age assessment; and establishment of baseline data. Diet composition data are suggested to be an additional nutrition-oriented indicator of impending food stress and one in which problems associated with anthropometry are not inherent. Both measures may be useful in monitoring a population, but their strengths and weaknesses should be appreciated.

The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, T.; Haile, M.; Senay, G.; Wardlow, B.D.; Knutson, C.L.

2008-01-01

Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. ?? 2008 United Nations.

Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2006-01-01

Early warning systems (EWS) tend to focus on the identification of slow onset disasters such famine and epidemic disease. Since hazardous environmental conditions often precede disastrous outcomes by many months, effective monitoring via satellite and in situ observations can successfully guide mitigation activities. Accurate short term forecasts of NDVI could increase lead times, making early warning earlier. This paper presents a simple empirical model for making 1 to 4 month NDVI projections. These statistical projections are based on parameterized satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) and relative humidity demand (RHD). A quasi-global, 1 month ahead, 1° study demonstrates reasonable accuracies in many semi-arid regions. In Africa, a 0.1° cross-validated skill assessment quantifies the technique's applicability at 1 to 4 month forecast intervals. These results suggest that useful projections can be made over many semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa, with plausible extensions to drought prone areas of Asia, Australia and South America.

Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thornton, P. K.; Bowen, W. T.; Ravelo, A.C.; Wilkens, P. W.; Farmer, G.; Brock, J.; Brink, J. E.

1997-01-01

Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet (Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Near Real-time Operational Use of eMODIS Expedited NDVI for Monitoring Applications and Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.

2010-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has requirements for near real-time monitoring of vegetation conditions for food security applications. Accurate and timely assessments of crop conditions are an important element of food security decision making. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center are utilizing a new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset for operational monitoring of crop and pasture conditions in parts of the world where food availability is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture and animal husbandry. The expedited MODIS, or eMODIS, production system processes NDVI data using MODIS surface reflectance provided by the Land Atmosphere Near-real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). Benefits of this production system include customized compositing schedules, near real-time data availability, and minimized re-sampling. FEWS NET has implemented a 10-day compositing scheme every five days to accommodate the need for timely information on vegetation conditions. The data are currently being processed at 250-meter spatial resolution for Central America, Hispaniola, and Africa. Data are further enhanced by the application of a temporal smoothing filter which helps remove contamination due to clouds and other atmospheric effects. The results of this near real-time monitoring capability have been the timely provision of NDVI and NDVI anomaly maps for each of the FEWS NET monitoring regions and the availability of a consistently processed dataset to aid crop assessment missions and to facilitate customized analyses of crop production, drought, and agro-pastoral conditions.

Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

2015-01-01

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

2009-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these new countries have no local FEWS NET analysts, requiring increased reliance on remote sensing for detection of agricultural drought and potential food insecurity. USGS is increasing its cooperation with NASA, NOAA, and university partners to meet this challenge. New servers for near real time delivery of MODIS NDVI, satellite rainfall estimates, and gridded snow pack estimates are being established. A custom instance of NASA's Land Information System software is also being developed to create a land data assimilation system specifically for FEWS NET domains, data streams, and monitoring and forecast requirements. The system will take better advantage of remote sensing data, including promising new products from the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission, by integrating them with surface observations for simulation of land surface processes. In this way, the continuous improvement of monitoring and modeling for famine early warning will advance to a new level of sophistication and effectiveness.

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

USAID Expands eMODIS Coverage for Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkerson, C.; Meyer, D. J.; Evenson, K.; Merritt, M.

2011-12-01

Food security in countries at risk is monitored by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) using many methods including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data processed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) into eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. Near-real time production is used comparatively with trends derived from the eMODIS archive to operationally monitor vegetation anomalies indicating threatened cropland and rangeland conditions. eMODIS production over Central America and the Caribbean (CAMCAR) began in 2009, and processes 10-day NDVI composites every 5 days from surface reflectance inputs produced using predicted spacecraft and climatology information at Land and Atmosphere Near real time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (EOS) (LANCE). These expedited eMODIS composites are backed by a parallel archive of precision-based NDVI calculated from surface reflectance data ordered through Level 1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS). Success in the CAMCAR region led to the recent expansion of eMODIS production to include Africa in 2010, and Central Asia in 2011. Near-real time 250-meter products are available for each region on the last day of an acquisition interval (generally before midnight) from an anonymous file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS). The FTP site concurrently hosts the regional historical collections (2000 to present) which are also searchable using the USGS Earth Explorer (http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/NewEarthExplorer). As eMODIS coverage continues to grow, these geographically gridded, georeferenced tagged image file format (GeoTIFF) NDVI composites increase their utility as effective tools for operational monitoring of near-real time vegetation data against historical trends.

A max-to-min technique for making projections of NDVI change in semi-arid Africa for food security early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.; Funk, C. C.

2005-12-01

Climatic hazards such as droughts and floods often result in a decline in food production in economically vulnerable pre-industrial economies such as those in Africa. Early warning systems (EWS) have been developed to identify slow onset disasters such famine and epidemic disease that may result from hazardous environmental conditions. These conditions often precede food crises by many months, thus effective monitoring via satellite and in situ observations can allow for successful mitigation activities. Accurate forecasts of NDVI could increase monitoring lead times and allow for effective institutional planning of intervention, making early warning earlier. This paper presents a simple empirical max-to-min model for making 1 to 4 month NDVI projections. These statistical projections are based on parameterized satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) and relative humidity demand (RHD). A heuristic example in central Zimbabwe introduces the RFE growth and RHD loss terms. A quasi-global, one month ahead, 1 degree study then demonstrates reasonable accuracies in many semi-arid regions. In Africa, a 0.1 degree cross-validated skill assessment quantifies the technique's applicability at 1 to 4 month forecast intervals. These results suggest that useful projections can be made over many semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa, with plausible extensions to drought prone areas of Asia, Australia and South America.

Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts to support FEWS NET’s food insecurity outlooks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; McEvoy, Daniel; Hobbins, Michael; Husak, Gregory; Huntington, Justin; Funk, Chris; Macharia, Denis; Verdin, James P.

2017-01-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. This study describes development of a new global reference evapotranspiration (ETo) seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE’s formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP’s CFSv2 and NASA’s GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores, focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. Globally, the regions where forecasts are most skillful (correlation >0.35 at lead-2) include Western U.S., northern parts of South America, parts of Sahel region and Southern Africa. The FEWS NET regions where forecasts are most skillful (correlation >0.35 at lead-3) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that ETo forecasts in combination with the precipitation forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts tosupport FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; McEvoy, D.; Hobbins, M.; Husak, G. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C.; Verdin, J.; Macharia, D.

2017-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. Thus far in terms of agroclimatic conditions that influence food insecurity, FEWS NET's primary focus has been on the seasonal precipitation forecasts while not adequately accounting for the atmospheric evaporative demand, which is also directly related to agricultural production and hence food insecurity, and is most often estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This presentation reports on the development of a new global ETo seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. The FEWS NET regions with promising level of skill (correlation >0.35 at lead times of 3 months) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that, in combination with the precipitation forecasts, ETo forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

A Climate Trend Analysis of Burkina Faso

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Adoum, Alkhalil; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in rainfall and air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady over the past 20 years, but remain 15 percent below the 1920-69 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * The amount of farmland per person is low, and declining. * Burkina Faso has offset rapid population growth with improved yields. * Continued yield growth would maintain current levels of per capita food production.

A climate trend analysis of Mali

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained relatively steady for the past 20 years, but are 12 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * Current population and agricultural trends indicate that increased yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.

Early life exposure to China's 1959-61 famine and midlife cognition.

PubMed

Xu, Hongwei; Zhang, Zhenmei; Li, Lydia; Liu, Jinyu

2018-02-01

Existing studies of the 1944-45 Dutch famine found little evidence of the association between early life malnutrition and midlife cognition. Among 2446 rural participants born between 1958 and 1963 in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we examined effects of exposure to China's 1959-61 Great Leap Forward famine during prenatal and early postnatal life, on four cognitive measures in 2011 (baseline) and changes in cognition between 2011 and 2013 (first follow-up). We obtained difference-in-differences (DID) estimates of the famine effects by exploiting temporal variation in the timing and duration of famine exposure across six birth cohorts born between 1958 and 1963, together with geographical variation in famine severity at the prefecture level. After adjusting for gender, marital status and provincial fixed effects, we found that the 1961 cohort who experienced full-term prenatal and partial-term postnatal exposures to famine had lower scores on the Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status (TICS), a test of drawing pentagons, and general cognition at age 50 years compared with the unexposed 1963 cohort. Adjusting for education, the famine effects on drawing pentagons and general cognition were fully attenuated, but the effect on TICS persisted. We also found a robust negative famine effect on the longitudinal change in general cognition during the 2-year follow-up in the 1959 cohort. Severe nutritional deprivation during prenatal and postnatal periods has a lasting impact on cognitive performance in Chinese adults in their early 50s. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Victims of Chinese famine in early life have increased risk of metabolic syndrome in adulthood.

PubMed

Yu, Caizheng; Wang, Jing; Wang, Fei; Han, Xu; Hu, Hua; Yuan, Jing; Miao, Xiaoping; Yao, Ping; Wei, Sheng; Wang, Youjie; Liang, Yuan; Zhang, Xiaomin; Guo, Huan; Pan, An; Zheng, Dan; Tang, Yuhan; Yang, Handong; Wu, Tangchun; He, Meian

2018-02-05

To investigate the association of exposure to the Chinese famine during early life with metabolic syndrome risk in adults. There were 7,915 participants from Dongfeng-Tongji cohort were included in the present study. Participants were classified as non-exposed group, fetal exposed group, early childhood-, mid childhood-, and late childhood-exposed groups, respectively. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to International Diabetes Foundation criteria (2005). Logistic regression model was used to explore the association between famine exposure in early life and metabolic syndrome risk in adults. The metabolic syndrome prevalence in non-, fetal-, early childhood-, mid childhood-, and late childhood- exposed groups were 25.2%, 26.9%, 30.3%, 32.7%, and 32.7%, respectively. Compared with non-exposed group, participants exposed to famine in the fetal (0.96, 95% CI: 0.77-1.20), early childhood (1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.52), mid childhood (1.39, 95% CI: 1.13-1.72), and late childhood (1.33, 95% CI: 1.08-1.63) had higher metabolic syndrome prevalence risk in adults after adjustment for potential confounders (P for trend < 0.0001). In gender-specific analyses, women exposed to famine in early childhood (1.26, 95% CI: 1.02-1.56), mid childhood (1.43, 95% CI: 1.14-1.78), and late childhood (1.47, 95% CI: 1.18-1.84) had higher metabolic syndrome prevalence risk than non-exposed women (P for trend < 0.0001). There was a famine-gender interaction on metabolic syndrome prevalence risk (P for interaction = 0.0001). Results in the present study indicated that exposure to famine in early life increases the risk of metabolic syndrome in adulthood, particularly in women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term health and socioeconomic consequences of early-life exposure to the 1959-1961 Chinese Famine.

PubMed

Fan, Wen; Qian, Yue

2015-01-01

This research investigates long-term consequences of early-life malnutrition by examining effects of the 1959-1961 Chinese Famine. Taking into account temporal and geographic variations in famine severity, we construct a difference-in-differences estimator to identify effects of early-life exposure to famine on perceived health and socioeconomic outcomes in midlife. Using a sample of 1716 adults born in 1955-1966 in rural China from a nationally representative survey-the 2005 Chinese General Social Survey-we find that the famine had adverse effects on mid-life health for males born into families where at least one parent was a Communist Party member and females regardless of parental party membership. Being born during the famine had no effects on years of education or income for either gender. Quantile regressions suggest intense mortality selection among males who had no party-affiliated parents. Our study highlights the importance of timing and contexts of life experiences in shaping health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A climate trend analysis of Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

Exposure to the Chinese famine in early life and the risk of anaemia in adulthood.

PubMed

Shi, Zumin; Zhang, Cuilin; Zhou, Minghao; Zhen, Shiqi; Taylor, Anne W

2013-10-01

Famine exposure during the early stage of life is related to a number of adulthood diseases. The objective of this study was to examine the association of early life exposure to the famine in China (1959-1961) with the risk of anaemia in adulthood. We used the data of 2007 adults born between 1954 and 1964 in Jiangsu province from the 2002 Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration <12 g/dl in women and <13 g/dl in men. Prevalence of anaemia in adulthood in nonexposed, fetal-exposed, early-childhood, mid-childhood, and late-childhood exposed to famine groups were 26.0%, 33.8%, 28.1%, 28.2% and 29.7%, respectively. Overall, fetal-exposed to famine was associated with 37% increased risk of anaemia as compared with those non-exposed after adjusting for income, education, place of residence, smoking, alcohol drinking, job, hypertension and BMI; relative risk (95% confidence interval) (RR (95% CI)) was 1.37 (1.09, 1.71). In general, this association appeared to be stronger among men, those who were currently overweight or obese, or those of lower educational levels. Corresponding RR (95% CI) was 1.87 (1.21-2.87), 1.75 (1.20-2.56), and 2.07 (1.37-3.12), respectively. Fetal exposure to the Chinese famine was associated with an increased risk of anaemia in adulthood.

A Climate Trend Analysis of Niger

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Adoum, Alkhalil; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies a substantial recovery of rainfall in Niger, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have increased during the past 20 years and have almost returned to 1960-89 levels. * Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Crop yields are very low and stagnant, and the population is growing very rapidly. * Niger has offset very rapid population growth with a large expansion of cultivated land. * If the expansion of farmland slows down, stagnant yields and population growth could lead to increased food insecurity.

New and Improved Remotely Sensed Products and Tools for Agricultural Monitoring Applications in Support of Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Pedreros, D.; Husak, G. J.; Bohms, S.

2011-12-01

The high global food prices in 2008 led to the acknowledgement that there is a need to monitor the inter-connectivity of global and regional markets and their potential impacts on food security in many more regions than previously considered. The crisis prompted an expansion of monitoring by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to include additional countries, beyond those where food security has long been of concern. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of California Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group have provided new and improved data products as well as visualization and analysis tools in support of this increased mandate for remote monitoring. We present a new product for measuring actual evapotranspiration (ETa) based on the implementation of a surface energy balance model and site improvements of two standard FEWS NET monitoring products: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and satellite-based rainfall estimates. USGS FEWS NET has implemented a simplified surface energy balance model to produce operational ETa anomalies for Africa. During the growing season, ETa anomalies express surplus or deficit crop water use which is directly related to crop condition and biomass. The expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (eMODIS) production system provides FEWS NET with a much improved NDVI dataset for crop and rangeland monitoring. eMODIS NDVI provides a reliable data stream with a vastly improved spatial resolution (250-m) and short latency period (less than 12 hours) which allows for better operational vegetation monitoring. FEWS NET uses satellite rainfall estimates as inputs for monitoring agricultural food production. By combining high resolution (0.05 deg) rainfall mean fields with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall estimates and infrared temperature data, we provide pentadal (5-day) rainfall fields suitable for crop monitoring and modeling. We also present two new monitoring tools, the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) and the Decision Support Interface (DSI). The EWX is a data analysis tool which provides the ability to rapidly visualize multiple remote sensing datasets and compare standardized anomaly maps and time series. The DSI uses remote sensing data in an automated fashion to map areas of drought concern and ranks their severity at both crop zone and administrative levels. New and improved data products and more targeted analysis tools are a necessity as food security monitoring requirements expand and resources become limited.

Exposure to the Chinese famine in early life and the risk of anaemia in adulthood

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Famine exposure during the early stage of life is related to a number of adulthood diseases. The objective of this study was to examine the association of early life exposure to the famine in China (1959–1961) with the risk of anaemia in adulthood. Methods We used the data of 2007 adults born between 1954 and 1964 in Jiangsu province from the 2002 Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin concentration <12 g/dl in women and <13 g/dl in men. Results Prevalence of anaemia in adulthood in nonexposed, fetal-exposed, early-childhood, mid-childhood, and late-childhood exposed to famine groups were 26.0%, 33.8%, 28.1%, 28.2% and 29.7%, respectively. Overall, fetal-exposed to famine was associated with 37% increased risk of anaemia as compared with those non-exposed after adjusting for income, education, place of residence, smoking, alcohol drinking, job, hypertension and BMI; relative risk (95% confidence interval) (RR (95% CI)) was 1.37 (1.09, 1.71). In general, this association appeared to be stronger among men, those who were currently overweight or obese, or those of lower educational levels. Corresponding RR (95% CI) was 1.87 (1.21-2.87), 1.75 (1.20-2.56), and 2.07 (1.37-3.12), respectively. Conclusions Fetal exposure to the Chinese famine was associated with an increased risk of anaemia in adulthood. PMID:24079608

Fetal and infant exposure to severe Chinese famine increases the risk of adult dyslipidemia: Results from the China health and retirement longitudinal study.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenghe; Li, Changwei; Yang, Zhongping; Ma, Jun; Zou, Zhiyong

2017-06-14

To explore the associations between the Chinese famine exposure in early life and the dyslipidemia in adulthood. We selected 2752 participants from the baseline survey of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011-2012 to evaluate the associations of early life the Chinese famine exposure with risk of dyslipidemia in adulthood. Dyslipidemia was defined as TC (Total Cholesterol): HDL-C (High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol) ratio ≥ 5.0 or use cholesterol lowering drugs. Famine exposure cohorts were categorized by birthdates of participants. Binary logistics regression model was used to examine the associations of early-life famine exposure with the risk of dyslipidemia. The dyslipidemia prevalence of the non-exposed cohort, fetal stage-, infant stage-, and preschool stage-exposed cohorts in adulthood was 15.7%, 23.1%, 22.0%, and 18.6%, respectively. Early-life exposure to the Chinese famine significantly increased LDL cholesterol concentrations in adulthood after adjusted for age. The risks of dyslipidemia in fetal (OR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23-2.03; P < 0.001) and infant (OR = 1.52; 95% CI: 1.15-2.00; P = 0.003) stage-exposed cohorts were significantly higher than the non-exposed cohort after adjusted for gender and current family economic status. Following gender stratification, we found that fetal (OR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.26-2.57; P = 0.001), infant (OR = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.17-2.62; P = 0.006), and preschool (OR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.10-2.42; P = 0.015) -stage exposure to severe famine aggravated the risk of dyslipidemia in female adults. However, the similar association was not observed for male adults. Early-life exposure to severe Chinese famine could link with the higher dyslipidemia risk in female adulthood, but not in male adulthood. This gender-specific effect might be associated with the hypothesis that parents in China prefer boys to girls traditionally or survivors' bias.

Association between type 2 diabetes and prenatal exposure to the Ukraine famine of 1932-33: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Lumey, L H; Khalangot, Mykola D; Vaiserman, Alexander M

2015-10-01

The effect of fetal and early childhood living conditions on adult health has long been debated, but empirical assessment in human beings remains a challenge. We used data from during the man-made Ukrainian famine of 1932-33 to examine the association between restricted nutrition in early gestation and type 2 diabetes in offspring in later life. We included all patients with type 2 diabetes diagnosed at age 40 years or older in the Ukraine national diabetes register 2000-08, and used all individuals born between 1930 and 1938 from the 2001 Ukraine national census as the reference population. This study population includes individuals born before and after the famine period as controls, and those from regions that experienced extreme, severe, or no famine. We used prevalence odds ratios (ORs) as the measure of association between type 2 diabetes and early famine exposure, with stratification by region, date of birth, and sex for comparisons of diabetes prevalence in specific subgroups. Using these two datasets, we compared the odds of type 2 diabetes by date and region of birth in 43,150 patients with diabetes and 1,421,024 individuals born between 1930 and 1938. With adjustment for season of birth, the OR for developing type 2 diabetes was 1·47 (95% CI 1·37-1·58) in individuals born in the first half of 1934 in regions with extreme famine, 1·26 (1·14-1·39) in individuals born in regions with severe famine, and there was no increase (OR 1·00, 0·91-1·09) in individuals born in regions with no famine, compared with births in other time periods. Multivariable analyses confirmed these results. The associations between type 2 diabetes and famine around the time of birth were similar in men and women. These results show a dose-response relation between famine severity during prenatal development and odds of type 2 diabetes in later life. Our findings suggest that early gestation is a critical time window of development; therefore, further studies of biological mechanisms should include this period. Ukraine State Diabetes Mellitus Program, US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The long-term cognitive consequences of early childhood malnutrition: the case of famine in Ghana.

PubMed

Ampaabeng, Samuel K; Tan, Chih Ming

2013-12-01

We examine the role of early childhood health in human capital accumulation. Using a unique data set from Ghana with comprehensive information on individual, family, community, school quality characteristics and a direct measure of intelligence together with test scores, we examine the long-term cognitive effects of the 1983 famine on survivors. We show that differences in intelligence test scores can be robustly explained by the differential impact of the famine in different parts of the country and the impacts are most severe for children under two years of age during the famine. We also account for model uncertainty by using Bayesian Model Averaging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exposure to Famine at a Young Age and Unhealthy Lifestyle Behavior Later in Life.

PubMed

Fransen, Heidi P; Peeters, Petra H M; Beulens, Joline W J; Boer, Jolanda M A; de Wit, G Ardine; Onland-Moret, N Charlotte; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Elias, Sjoerd G; May, Anne M

2016-01-01

A healthy diet is important for normal growth and development. Exposure to undernutrition during important developmental periods such as childhood and adolescence can have effects later in life. Inhabitants of the west of the Netherlands were exposed to severe undernutrition during the famine in the last winter of the second World War (1944-1945). We investigated if exposure of women to the Dutch famine during childhood and adolescence was associated with an unhealthy lifestyle later in life. We studied 7,525 women from the Prospect-EPIC cohort, recruited in 1993-97 and aged 0-18 years during the Dutch famine. An individual famine score was calculated based on self-reported information about experience of hunger and weight loss. We investigated the association between famine exposure in early life and four lifestyle factors in adulthood: smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity level and a Mediterranean-style diet. Of the 7,525 included women, 46% were unexposed, 38% moderately exposed and 16% severely exposed to the Dutch famine. Moderately and severely exposed women were more often former or current smokers compared to women that did not suffer from the famine: adjusted prevalence ratio 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05; 1.14) and 1.18 (1.12; 1.25), respectively. They also smoked more pack years than unexposed women. Severely exposed women were more often physically inactive than unexposed women, adjusted prevalence ratio 1.32 (1.06; 1.64). Results did not differ between exposure age categories (0-9 and 10-17 years). We found no associations of famine exposure with alcohol consumption and no dose-dependent relations with diet. Exposure to famine early in female life may be associated with higher prevalence of smoking and physical inactivity later in life, but not with unhealthy diet and alcohol consumption.

What are we assessing when we measure food security? A compendium and review of current metrics.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew D; Ngure, Francis M; Pelto, Gretel; Young, Sera L

2013-09-01

The appropriate measurement of food security is critical for targeting food and economic aid; supporting early famine warning and global monitoring systems; evaluating nutrition, health, and development programs; and informing government policy across many sectors. This important work is complicated by the multiple approaches and tools for assessing food security. In response, we have prepared a compendium and review of food security assessment tools in which we review issues of terminology, measurement, and validation. We begin by describing the evolving definition of food security and use this discussion to frame a review of the current landscape of measurement tools available for assessing food security. We critically assess the purpose/s of these tools, the domains of food security assessed by each, the conceptualizations of food security that underpin each metric, as well as the approaches that have been used to validate these metrics. Specifically, we describe measurement tools that 1) provide national-level estimates of food security, 2) inform global monitoring and early warning systems, 3) assess household food access and acquisition, and 4) measure food consumption and utilization. After describing a number of outstanding measurement challenges that might be addressed in future research, we conclude by offering suggestions to guide the selection of appropriate food security metrics.

What Are We Assessing When We Measure Food Security? A Compendium and Review of Current Metrics12

PubMed Central

Jones, Andrew D.; Ngure, Francis M.; Pelto, Gretel; Young, Sera L.

2013-01-01

The appropriate measurement of food security is critical for targeting food and economic aid; supporting early famine warning and global monitoring systems; evaluating nutrition, health, and development programs; and informing government policy across many sectors. This important work is complicated by the multiple approaches and tools for assessing food security. In response, we have prepared a compendium and review of food security assessment tools in which we review issues of terminology, measurement, and validation. We begin by describing the evolving definition of food security and use this discussion to frame a review of the current landscape of measurement tools available for assessing food security. We critically assess the purpose/s of these tools, the domains of food security assessed by each, the conceptualizations of food security that underpin each metric, as well as the approaches that have been used to validate these metrics. Specifically, we describe measurement tools that 1) provide national-level estimates of food security, 2) inform global monitoring and early warning systems, 3) assess household food access and acquisition, and 4) measure food consumption and utilization. After describing a number of outstanding measurement challenges that might be addressed in future research, we conclude by offering suggestions to guide the selection of appropriate food security metrics. PMID:24038241

China's one-child family: a famine-forced decision.

PubMed

1985-01-01

The Reagan administration refuses to recognize the achievements of China's population program and the practical and humanitarian considerations which lead to China's adoption of vigorous family planning policies. China began to express concern about population growth in 1960, and this concern was, in part, prompted by a severe famine. The occurence of the famine was only recently brought to the attention of the rest of the world when demographers uncovered statistical evidence indicating that as many as 30 million Chinese may have perished in the 1958-62 famine. The famine was due both to faulty agricultural policies and to severe crop damage in 1959 and 1960. The family planning program initiated in 1960 was interrupted by the cultural revolution, and the effort to control population growth was not reinstituted until the early 1970s. By 1979 childbearing among the postwar baby boom generation boosted population growth rates to a new high, and the government began advocating a 1-child family. The national census of 1982 revealed that China's population doubled between 1949-1982 and in 1982 exceeded 1 billion. Severe famine and economic chaos were forecasted for the near future if population growth was not severely and immediately curbed. The government responded to this impending threat by instituting stringent measures to restrict 2nd order births. Abortion was permitted for cases of contraceptive failure; however, the government warned that severe penalties would be imposed on anyone who tried to ensure that their 1 child was a son by practicing female infanticide, a traditional but illegal practice. The government admits that some couples, under extreme pressure from local officials, resorted to infanticide. The Reagan administration used the infanticide issue to descredit the Chinese population program, and recently announced its intention to withhold US$10 million in previously approved funding from the UN Fund for Population Activities because the agency provided support for China's coercive population program. The administration also voiced its distorted preceion of China's program at the 1984 International Conference on Population. James Buckley, the administration's delegate to the conference, blamed state controlled economies for interfering with natural mechanisms for slowing population growth. In reality, China's progress in controlling population growth accounts for almost all of the 20% reduction in the world's population growth rate, since the late 1960s. By slowing the world's population growth rate, China contributed not only to it own economic well-being but to the economic well-being of all nations including the US. Yet Reagan condemns rather than praises China for enduring the hardship of controlling its fertility.

Increase in the prevalence of arthritis in adulthood among adults exposed to Chinese famine of 1959 to 1961 during childhood: A cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Xu, Xianglong; Liu, Lingli; Xie, Wenxi; Zhang, Yong; Zeng, Huan; Zhang, Fan; Reis, Cesar; Cao, Xianqing; Zhao, Yong

2017-03-01

The developmental origins hypothesis postulates that under-nutrition in the early stage of life is associated with an increased risk of disease in adulthood. This study aimed to examine the association of exposure to the Chinese famine of 1959 to 1961 in early life with the risk of arthritis in adulthood.From July to September 2009, the study adopted multistage stratified random sampling cross-sectional survey to recruit 1224 eligible adults in Chongqing. Famine exposure groups were categorized into 3 groups: (1) childhood exposure, (2) fetal exposure, and (3) nonexposure. Self-reported arthritis of physician diagnosis was obtained. A total of 1224 eligible respondents were interviewed, including 299 individuals exposed during childhood, 455 exposed when fetal, and 470 without exposure.The prevalence of arthritis in adulthood among individuals exposed to famine during childhood was significantly higher than those not exposed (17.39% vs 11.28%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.573 with a 95% confidence interval of [CI] [1.020, 2.424]). Persons exposed to famine during the fetal period did not significantly contribute to a higher rate of arthritis in adulthood than those who were not exposed to famine (13.19% vs 11.28%, OR = 1.072, 95% CI = 0.713, 1.613). In addition, education level, the average monthly income, sleep status, and satisfaction of the present living condition were associated with the risk of arthritis in adulthood.Exposure to the Chinese famine during childhood may be associated with an increased risk of arthritis in adulthood. This study suggests that early life nutrition may have an effect on the risk of arthritis in adulthood.

Exposure to Famine at a Young Age and Unhealthy Lifestyle Behavior Later in Life

PubMed Central

Fransen, Heidi P.; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; Boer, Jolanda M. A.; de Wit, G. Ardine; Onland-Moret, N. Charlotte; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Elias, Sjoerd G.; May, Anne M.

2016-01-01

Background A healthy diet is important for normal growth and development. Exposure to undernutrition during important developmental periods such as childhood and adolescence can have effects later in life. Inhabitants of the west of the Netherlands were exposed to severe undernutrition during the famine in the last winter of the second World War (1944–1945). Objective We investigated if exposure of women to the Dutch famine during childhood and adolescence was associated with an unhealthy lifestyle later in life. Design We studied 7,525 women from the Prospect-EPIC cohort, recruited in 1993–97 and aged 0–18 years during the Dutch famine. An individual famine score was calculated based on self-reported information about experience of hunger and weight loss. We investigated the association between famine exposure in early life and four lifestyle factors in adulthood: smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity level and a Mediterranean-style diet. Results Of the 7,525 included women, 46% were unexposed, 38% moderately exposed and 16% severely exposed to the Dutch famine. Moderately and severely exposed women were more often former or current smokers compared to women that did not suffer from the famine: adjusted prevalence ratio 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05; 1.14) and 1.18 (1.12; 1.25), respectively. They also smoked more pack years than unexposed women. Severely exposed women were more often physically inactive than unexposed women, adjusted prevalence ratio 1.32 (1.06; 1.64). Results did not differ between exposure age categories (0–9 and 10–17 years). We found no associations of famine exposure with alcohol consumption and no dose-dependent relations with diet. Conclusions Exposure to famine early in female life may be associated with higher prevalence of smoking and physical inactivity later in life, but not with unhealthy diet and alcohol consumption. PMID:27244088

Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

This book describes the interdisciplinary work of USAID's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and its influence on how food security crises are identified, documented and the kind of responses that result. The book describes FEWS NET's systems and methods for using satellite remote sensing to identify and describe how biophysical hazards impact the lives and livelihoods of the population where they occur. It presents several illustrative case studies that will demonstrate the integration of both physical and social science disciplines in its work. FEWS NET s operational needs have driven science in biophysical remote sensing applications through its collaboration with the US Geological Survey, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and US Department of Agriculture, as well as methodologies in the social science domain through its support of the US Agency for International Development, UNWorld Food Program and numerous international non-governmental organizations such as Save the Children, Oxfam and others. Because FEWS NET is an organization that must provide a global picture of food insecurity to decision makers, the information it relies on are by necessity observable and able to be documented. Thus many aspects of traditional livelihood analysis, for example, cannot be used by FEWS NET as they rely upon relationships, and ways of expressing power and knowledge at the local scale that cannot be easily scaled up to express variations in access to food at a community level. The book focuses on the ways that remote sensing information is transformed into an understanding of the actions that must be taken in order to ensure that lives and livelihoods are protected, including describing the remote sensing observations and models needed to identify hazards and the information gathering requirements and analytical frameworks needed to understand their impact. Its focus is primarily analysis conducted in Africa, but also touches upon FEWS NET s work in Central America, Haiti and Afghanistan. As an organization that seeks to integrate social and physical science methodologies and strategies into its work on a daily basis, it is a fascinating and rich example of interdisciplinary knowledge generation and innovation.

Multi-model perspectives and inter-comparison of soil moisture and evapotranspiration in East Africa—an application of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M. S.; McNally, A.; Arsenault, K. R.

2017-12-01

Convergence of evidence from different agro-hydrologic sources is particularly important for drought monitoring in data sparse regions. In Africa, a combination of remote sensing and land surface modeling experiments are used to evaluate past, present and future drought conditions. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) routinely simulates daily soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET) and other variables over Africa using multiple models and inputs. We found that Noah 3.3, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) 4.1.2, and Catchment Land Surface Model based FLDAS simulations of monthly soil moisture percentile maps captured concurrent drought and water surplus episodes effectively over East Africa. However, the results are sensitive to selection of land surface model and hydrometeorological forcings. We seek to identify sources of uncertainty (input, model, parameter) to eventually improve the accuracy of FLDAS outputs. In absence of in situ data, previous work used European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (CCI-SM) data measured from merged active-passive microwave remote sensing to evaluate FLDAS soil moisture, and found that during the high rainfall months of April-May and November-December Noah-based soil moisture correlate well with CCI-SM over the Greater Horn of Africa region. We have found good correlations (r>0.6) for FLDAS Noah 3.3 ET anomalies and Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) ET over East Africa. Recently, SSEBop ET estimates (version 4) were improved by implementing a land surface temperature correction factor. We re-evaluate the correlations between FLDAS ET and version 4 SSEBop ET. To further investigate the reasons for differences between models we evaluate FLDAS soil moisture with Advanced Scatterometer and SMAP soil moisture and FLDAS outputs with MODIS and AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index. By exploring longer historic time series and near-real time products we will be aiding convergence of evidence for better understanding of historic drought, improved monitoring and forecasting, and better understanding of uncertainties of water availability estimation over Africa

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge base for over 80 countries that provide rainfall and NDVI-based products, including annual and seasonal summaries, historical anomalies, coefficient of variation, and number of years below 70% of annual or seasonal averages. These products provide a quick look for analysts to assess the agro-climatology of a country.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Contributions to Strengthening Resilience and Sustainability for the East African Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Galu, G.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.

2014-12-01

The Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic Development (PREPARED) is a multi-organizational project aimed at mainstreaming climate-resilient development planning and program implementation into the East African Community (EAC). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has partnered with the PREPARED project to address three key development challenges for the EAC; 1) increasing resiliency to climate change, 2) managing trans-boundary freshwater biodiversity and conservation and 3) improving access to drinking water supply and sanitation services. USGS FEWS NET has been instrumental in the development of gridded climate data sets that are the fundamental building blocks for climate change adaptation studies in the region. Tools such as the Geospatial Climate Tool (GeoCLIM) have been developed to interpolate time-series grids of precipitation and temperature values from station observations and associated satellite imagery, elevation data, and other spatially continuous fields. The GeoCLIM tool also allows the identification of anomalies and assessments of both their frequency of occurrence and directional trends. A major effort has been put forth to build the capacities of local and regional institutions to use GeoCLIM to integrate their station data (which is not typically available to the public) into improved national and regional gridded climate data sets. In addition to the improvements and capacity building activities related to geospatial analysis tools, FEWS NET will assist in two other areas; 1) downscaling of climate change scenarios and 2) vulnerability impact assessments. FEWS NET will provide expertise in statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model output fields and work with regional institutions to assess results of other downscaling methods. Completion of a vulnerability impact assessment (VIA) involves the examination of sectoral consequences in identified climate "hot spots". FEWS NET will lead the VIA for the agriculture and food security sector, but will also provide key geospatial layers needed by multiple sectors in the areas of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Project implementation will strengthen regional coordination in policy-making, planning, and response to climate change issues.

Prenatal famine exposure has sex-specific effects on brain size.

PubMed

de Rooij, Susanne R; Caan, Matthan W A; Swaab, Dick F; Nederveen, Aart J; Majoie, Charles B; Schwab, Matthias; Painter, Rebecca C; Roseboom, Tessa J

2016-08-01

Early nutritional deprivation might cause irreversible damage to the brain. Prenatal exposure to undernutrition has been shown to be associated with increased central nervous system anomalies at birth and decreased cognitive function in adulthood. Little is known about the potential effect on the brain in older age. We investigated brain size and structure at age 68 years after prenatal famine exposure. T1-weighted structural magnetic resonance images of the brain were made in 118 Dutch famine birth cohort members. Of these 118 (44% male, age range 65-69 years), 41 had been exposed to famine in early gestation and 77 had been prenatally unexposed. Structural volumes were automatically assessed using FreeSurfer. Diffusion tensor imaging was performed and anisotropy and diffusivity were computed. Fluid attenuated inversion recovery was performed to assess white matter hyperintensities. Exposure to famine in early gestation was associated with smaller intracranial volume in males, but not females. Volumes of total brain, grey and white matter were also smaller in early exposed males, but these differences disappeared after adjusting for intracranial volume. Prenatally exposed males but not females, had a smaller intracranial and total brain volume compared to unexposed subjects. Our findings show that prenatal undernutrition permanently affected brain size.media-1vid110.1093/brain/aww132_video_abstractaww132_video_abstract. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Essam, Timothy; Mann, Bristol F.; Stabler, Blake; Eilerts, Gary

2011-01-01

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Menstruation during and after caloric restriction: the 1944-1945 Dutch famine.

PubMed

Elias, Sjoerd G; van Noord, Paulus A H; Peeters, Petra H M; den Tonkelaar, Isolde; Kaaks, Rudolf; Grobbee, Diederick E

2007-10-01

To investigate the relation between exposure to the 1944-45 Dutch famine and concurrent and subsequent menstrual disturbances. Cohort study. Doorlopend Onderzoek Mammacarcinoom breast cancer screening project, Utrecht, the Netherlands. Between 1983 and 1986, approximately 12,500 women (born 1911-41) reported their individual famine experiences. Irregular menstruation during the famine; time to regular menses after menarche, and menstrual patterns in adulthood after childhood famine. The famine had a direct impact on menstruation. The odds ratio (OR) of concurrent irregular menses in severely versus unexposed women was 8.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.31-10.70). Women exposed to severe famine before menarche were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.15-1.98) times more likely to experience irregular menses for a prolonged time after menarche compared with the unexposed. This association was stronger in women with an early menarche. When the menstrual pattern was assessed in adulthood by menstrual diaries, a nonsignificant tendency of increased irregularity (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.82-1.54) and regular but long menstrual cycles (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.89-2.23) was observed in women exposed to severe famine. Famine relates to concurrent menstrual irregularity, and exposure in childhood seems to affect the subsequent menstrual pattern.

From famine to food crisis: what history can teach us about local and global subsistence crises.

PubMed

Vanhaute, Eric

2011-01-01

The number of famine prone regions in the world has been shrinking for centuries. It is currently mainly limited to sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the impact of endemic hunger has not declined and the early twenty-first century seems to be faced with a new threat: global subsistence crises. In this essay I question the concepts of famine and food crisis from different analytical angles: historical and contemporary famine research, food regime theory, and peasant studies. I will argue that only a more integrated historical framework of analysis can surpass dualistic interpretations grounded in Eurocentric modernization paradigms. This article successively debates historical and contemporary famine research, the contemporary food regime and the new global food crisis, the lessons from Europe's 'grand escape' from hunger, and the peasantry and 'depeasantization' as central analytical concepts. Dualistic histories of food and famine have been dominating developmentalist stories for too long. This essay shows how a blending of historical and contemporary famine research, food regime theory and new peasant studies can foster a more integrated perspective.

Prenatal famine exposure and cognition at age 59 years

PubMed Central

Stein, Aryeh D; Jolles, Jelle; van Boxtel, Martin PJ; Blauw, Gerard-Jan; van de Bor, Margot; Lumey, LH

2011-01-01

Background Despite the perceived importance of early life nutrition for mental development, few studies have related gestational undernutrition to later-life cognitive functioning. We investigated the consequences of gestational exposure to the Dutch famine of 1944–45 for cognitive functioning at the age of 59 years. Methods We recruited men and women who were (i) born in birth clinics in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Leiden, between January 1945 and March 1946, whose mothers experienced famine during or immediately preceding pregnancy (n = 354); (ii) born in the same three institutions during 1943 and 1947, whose mothers did not experience famine during this pregnancy (n = 292); or (iii) same-sex siblings of those in the first two categories (n = 311). We assessed cognitive performance at the age of 59 years by means of a comprehensive test battery. Results All cognitive functioning test scores were within normal ranges for this age group. There were no differences in cognitive performance at the age of 59 years between individuals exposed to gestational undernutrition and those without this exposure. For the general cognitive index, a summary measure across six functional domains (mean 100, standard deviation (SD) 15 points), famine exposure was associated with a decrease of 0.57 points [95% confidence interval (95% CI) −2.41 to 1.28] points. Individuals exposed to famine in gestational weeks 1–10 had a cognitive functioning index 4.36 (95% CI 8.04–0.67) points lower than those without this exposure. Within-sibling-pair analyses gave consistent results. Conclusion We found no overall association between maternal exposure to acute famine in pregnancy and cognitive performance of the offspring at the age of 59 years, but cannot rule out an association specific to early pregnancy exposure. PMID:21247885

DNA methylation as a mediator of the association between prenatal adversity and risk factors for metabolic disease in adulthood

PubMed Central

Tobi, Elmar W.; Slieker, Roderick C.; Luijk, René; Dekkers, Koen F.; Stein, Aryeh D.; Xu, Kate M.; Slagboom, P. Eline; van Zwet, Erik W.; Lumey, L. H.; Heijmans, Bastiaan T.

2018-01-01

Although it is assumed that epigenetic mechanisms, such as changes in DNA methylation (DNAm), underlie the relationship between adverse intrauterine conditions and adult metabolic health, evidence from human studies remains scarce. Therefore, we evaluated whether DNAm in whole blood mediated the association between prenatal famine exposure and metabolic health in 422 individuals exposed to famine in utero and 463 (sibling) controls. We implemented a two-step analysis, namely, a genome-wide exploration across 342,596 cytosine-phosphate-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs) for potential mediators of the association between prenatal famine exposure and adult body mass index (BMI), serum triglycerides (TG), or glucose concentrations, which was followed by formal mediation analysis. DNAm mediated the association of prenatal famine exposure with adult BMI and TG but not with glucose. DNAm at PIM3 (cg09349128), a gene involved in energy metabolism, mediated 13.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5 to 28%] of the association between famine exposure and BMI. DNAm at six CpGs, including TXNIP (cg19693031), influencing β cell function, and ABCG1 (cg07397296), affecting lipid metabolism, together mediated 80% (95% CI, 38.5 to 100%) of the association between famine exposure and TG. Analyses restricted to those exposed to famine during early gestation identified additional CpGs mediating the relationship with TG near PFKFB3 (glycolysis) and METTL8 (adipogenesis). DNAm at the CpGs involved was associated with gene expression in an external data set and correlated with DNAm levels in fat depots in additional postmortem data. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms mediate the influence of transient adverse environmental factors in early life on long-term metabolic health. The specific mechanism awaits elucidation. PMID:29399631

Independent and additive association of prenatal famine exposure and intermediary life conditions with adult mortality between age 18-63 years.

PubMed

Ekamper, P; van Poppel, F; Stein, A D; Lumey, L H

2014-10-01

To quantify the relation between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality, taking into account mediating effects of intermediary life conditions. Historical follow-up study. The Dutch famine (Hunger Winter) of 1944-1945 which occurred towards the end of WWII in occupied Netherlands. From 408,015 Dutch male births born 1944-1947, examined for military service at age 18, we selected for follow-up all men born at the time of the famine in six affected cities in the Western Netherlands (n=25,283), and a sample of unexposed time (n=10,667) and place (n=9087) controls. These men were traced and followed for mortality through the national population and death record systems. All-cause mortality between ages 18 and 63 years using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for intermediary life conditions. An increase in mortality was seen after famine exposure in early gestation (HR 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.24) but not late gestation (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96-1.13). Among intermediary life conditions at age 18 years, educational level was inversely associated with mortality and mortality was elevated in men with fathers with manual versus non-manual occupations (HR 1.08; CI: 1.02-1.16) and in men who were declared unfit for military service (HR 1.44; CI: 1.31-1.58). Associations of intermediate factors with mortality were independent of famine exposure in early life and associations between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality were independent of social class and education at age 18. Timing of exposure in relation to the stage of pregnancy may be of critical importance for later health outcomes independent of intermediary life conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prenatal famine exposure and cognition at age 59 years.

PubMed

de Groot, Renate Hm; Stein, Aryeh D; Jolles, Jelle; van Boxtel, Martin Pj; Blauw, Gerard-Jan; van de Bor, Margot; Lumey, Lh

2011-04-01

Despite the perceived importance of early life nutrition for mental development, few studies have related gestational undernutrition to later-life cognitive functioning. We investigated the consequences of gestational exposure to the Dutch famine of 1944-45 for cognitive functioning at the age of 59 years. We recruited men and women who were (i) born in birth clinics in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Leiden, between January 1945 and March 1946, whose mothers experienced famine during or immediately preceding pregnancy (n = 354); (ii) born in the same three institutions during 1943 and 1947, whose mothers did not experience famine during this pregnancy (n = 292); or (iii) same-sex siblings of those in the first two categories (n = 311). We assessed cognitive performance at the age of 59 years by means of a comprehensive test battery. All cognitive functioning test scores were within normal ranges for this age group. There were no differences in cognitive performance at the age of 59 years between individuals exposed to gestational undernutrition and those without this exposure. For the general cognitive index, a summary measure across six functional domains (mean 100, standard deviation (SD) 15 points), famine exposure was associated with a decrease of 0.57 points [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -2.41 to 1.28] points. Individuals exposed to famine in gestational weeks 1-10 had a cognitive functioning index 4.36 (95% CI 8.04-0.67) points lower than those without this exposure. Within-sibling-pair analyses gave consistent results. We found no overall association between maternal exposure to acute famine in pregnancy and cognitive performance of the offspring at the age of 59 years, but cannot rule out an association specific to early pregnancy exposure.

Prenatal famine, birthweight, reproductive performance and age at menopause: the Dutch hunger winter families study.

PubMed

Yarde, F; Broekmans, F J M; van der Pal-de Bruin, K M; Schönbeck, Y; te Velde, E R; Stein, A D; Lumey, L H

2013-12-01

Is there an association between acute prenatal famine exposure or birthweight and subsequent reproductive performance and age at menopause? No association was found between intrauterine famine exposure and reproductive performance, but survival analysis showed that women exposed in utero were 24% more likely to experience menopause at any age. Associations between prenatal famine and subsequent reproductive performance have been examined previously with inconsistent results. Evidence for the effects of famine exposure on age at natural menopause is limited to one study of post-natal exposure. This cohort study included men and women born around the time of the Dutch famine of 1944-1945. The study participants (n = 1070) underwent standardized interviews on reproductive parameters at a mean age of 59 years. The participants were grouped as men and women with prenatal famine exposure (n = 407), their same-sex siblings (family controls, n = 319) or other men and women born before or after the famine period (time controls, n = 344). Associations of famine exposure with reproductive performance and menopause were analysed using logistic regression and survival analysis with competing risk, after controlling for family clustering. Gestational famine exposure was not associated with nulliparity, age at birth of first child, difficulties conceiving or pregnancy outcome (all P> 0.05) in men or women. At any given age, women were more likely to experience menopause after gestational exposure to famine (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.51). The association was not attenuated with an additional control for a woman's birthweight. In this study, there was no association between birthweight and age at menopause after adjustment for gestational famine exposure. Age at menopause was self-reported and assessed retrospectively. The study power to examine associations with specific gestational periods of famine exposure and reproductive function was limited. Our findings support previous results that prenatal famine exposure is not related to reproductive performance in adult life. However, natural menopause occurs earlier after prenatal famine exposure, suggesting that early life events can affect organ function even at the ovarian level. This study was funded by the NHLBI/NIH (R01 HL-067914). Not applicable.

A climate trend analysis of Chad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies significant decreases in rainfall and increases in air temperature across Chad, especially in the eastern part of the country. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions:* Summer rains have decreased in eastern Chad during the past 20 years. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8 °Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Crop yields are very low and stagnant. * The amount of farmland per person is low, and decliningrapidly.* Population growth combined with stagnating yieldscould lead to a 30 percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.* In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, indicating some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood.

Exacerbation of liver steatosis following exposure to famine and overnutrition.

PubMed

Ning, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Kun; Zhao, Li; Lu, You; Sun, Honglin; Chen, Chi; Nie, Xiaomin; Lu, Meng; Wang, Ningjian; Lu, Yingli

2017-10-01

People suffering from famine in early life and overnutrition in adulthood may have an increased risk for liver steatosis. We aimed to investigate the effects and mechanisms of early nutrition restriction and overnutrition on de novo lipogenesis in the liver. Three-wk-old male rats were food restricted for 4 wk and refed a high-fat or normal fat diet individually in metabolic cages for 9 wk. Weight-matched groups were also set up. Fatty acid synthetase expression was measured to estimate de novo lipogenesis in the liver. Parameters of glucose and lipid metabolism were measured with isotope assays. All four groups had comparable body weights. However, the famine high-fat diet group had the highest degree of liver steatosis, the greatest body fat ratio, and insulin resistance. Lipid accumulation, fatty acid synthetase expression, and gluconeogenesis in the liver were significantly higher in the famine and high-fat diet groups (p < 0.05). Moreover, these groups also had markedly lower muscle glucose uptake. Under famine and high-fat refeeding stress, rats were extremely susceptible to developing hepatic steatosis. This is presumably a consequence of upregulation of de novo lipogenesis and enhanced glucose flux from muscle to de novo lipogenesis in the liver. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Exposure to the Chinese Famine in Childhood Increases Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Adults.

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Li, Yaru; Han, Xu; Liu, Bing; Hu, Hua; Wang, Fei; Li, Xiulou; Yang, Kun; Yuan, Jing; Yao, Ping; Miao, Xiaoping; Wei, Sheng; Wang, Youjie; Liang, Yuan; Zhang, Xiaomin; Guo, Huan; Yang, Handong; Hu, Frank B; Wu, Tangchun; He, Meian

2016-11-01

Evidence shows that exposure to poor conditions in early life is associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases in adults. We investigated whether exposure to the Chinese famine (1959-1961) in the fetal stage or in childhood (0-9 y) was associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hyperglycemia in adulthood. We included 7801 subjects aged 56.4 ± 3.3 y from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort. Subjects were classified into late-, middle-, and early-childhood-exposed, fetal-exposed, and unexposed groups. Excess mortality rate was used to evaluate the severity of famine. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the famine-dysglycemia associations. Generalized linear models were used to assess the famine effects on dysglycemia risk during the 5-y follow-up period among 3100 subjects. In descriptive analyses, the risk of T2D was significantly greater in the middle-childhood-exposed group (OR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.87; P = 0.007), and the risk of hyperglycemia was higher in the middle- and late-childhood-exposed groups than in the unexposed group (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.88 and OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.23, 1.85, respectively). In sex-specific analyses, women exposed in middle childhood (OR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.06) and late childhood (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.87) had a higher risk of T2D than unexposed women. This association was not found in men. Similar associations were found for hyperglycemia risk. Moreover, subjects who experienced severe famine in childhood had a 38% higher T2D risk (95% CI: 1.05, 1.81) than those exposed to less severe famine. In retrospective cohort analyses, participants who experienced famine in middle childhood had a higher hyperglycemia risk relative to the unexposed group (RR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.08, 3.90). Exposure to the Chinese famine in childhood was related to an increased risk of adulthood T2D and hyperglycemia, particularly in women. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Famine, third-trimester pregnancy weight gain, and intrauterine growth: the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Study.

PubMed

Stein, A D; Ravelli, A C; Lumey, L H

1995-02-01

Data from the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Study were analyzed to assess the influence of acute famine on the relation of maternal weight gain to birth weight, length, and ponderal index. Records were examined for 734 women receiving at least one month of prenatal care and delivering live-born singleton females at the University of Amsterdam Teaching Hospital between August 1944 and April 1946. This period preceded, encompassed, and followed the Hunger Winter, a severe famine. After adjusting for covariates, weight loss or low to moderate (< or = 0.5 kg/week) weight gain was strongly associated with (p < 0.001 for each model) with offspring birth weight, length, and ponderal index and with trimester of famine exposure. At weight gains greater than 0.5 kg/week further weight gain was not associated with birth size. Among women losing weight or gaining < or = 0.5 kg/week the association between third-trimester weight change and birth weight among mother-daughter pairs exposed to famine in early or mid-pregnancy was stronger than the association observed among the unexposed cohort or among those exposed only late in pregnancy. Our results suggest that acute maternal nutritional deprivation affects fetal growth only below a threshold and that, conversely, even after a famine period offspring birth size does not respond in a linear fashion to ad libitum maternal feeding.

Famine Exposure in the Young and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Adulthood

PubMed Central

van Abeelen, Annet F.M.; Elias, Sjoerd G.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Roseboom, Tessa J.; Uiterwaal, Cuno S.P.M.

2012-01-01

The developmental origins hypothesis proposes that undernutrition during early development is associated with an increased type 2 diabetes risk in adulthood. We investigated the association between undernutrition during childhood and young adulthood and type 2 diabetes in adulthood. We studied 7,837 women from Prospect-EPIC (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition) who were exposed to the 1944–1945 Dutch famine when they were between age 0 and 21 years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to explore the effect of famine on the risk of subsequent type 2 diabetes in adulthood. We adjusted for potential confounders, including age at famine exposure, smoking, and level of education. Self-reported famine exposure during childhood and young adulthood was associated with an increased type 2 diabetes risk in a dose-dependent manner. In those who reported moderate famine exposure, the age-adjusted type 2 diabetes hazard ratio (HR) was 1.36 (95% CI [1.09–1.70]); in those who reported severe famine exposure, the age-adjusted HR was 1.64 (1.26–2.14) relative to unexposed women. These effects did not change after adjustment for confounders. This study provides the first direct evidence, using individual famine exposure data, that a short period of moderate or severe undernutrition during postnatal development increases type 2 diabetes risk in adulthood. PMID:22648386

Responsiveness of Food Security Reporting to Environmental Variability and Agricultural Production Deficits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brickley, E. B.; Brown, M. E.

2010-12-01

This paper uses 1342 food security update reports from the US Agency for International Development (USAID)’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) in an analysis that focuses on the environmental, market, and livelihood influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. A textual analysis was conducted using the reports as a primary data source to evaluate the responsiveness of food security analysis to environmental variability and food production deficits. The research shows that FEWS NET analysts demonstrate a consistent approach across all 17 countries as to the discussion and use of rainfall information, agricultural production, food prices and food access parameters. There are significant differences in the use of remote sensing and other technical information between East, West and Southern African country analysts, with satellite remote sensing of vegetation being used 28% of the time, rainfall imagery 84% and gridded crop models only 10% of the time. Significantly more discussion of biophysical information was seen during the rainy season than during the dry season, and different satellite products were used during periods of drought than periods of adequate moisture. As the demand for early warning information grows to more countries in different ecosystems, there is likely to be an increased need for the effective utilization of remote sensing, market, and livelihood data, and it is also probable that this information will be critical for improved policy-making regarding climate extremes in the future.

Semi-automated Approach to Mapping Sub-hectare Agricultural Fields using Very High Resolution Data in a High-Performance Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wooten, M.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Carroll, M.; McCarty, J. L.

2017-12-01

In areas susceptible to drought such as sub-Saharan Africa, Crop Area (CA) and agricultural mapping have become increasingly important as strain on natural ecosystems increases. In Ethiopia alone, the population has grown four-fold in the last 70 years, and rapidly growing human populations bring added stress to ecosystems as more wildlands are converted to pastures and subsistence agriculture. Monitoring change in agriculture is one of the more essential goals of famine early warning systems. However, due to the sub-hectare size of rainfed agricultural fields in regions such as Tigray, Ethiopia, moderate resolution satellite imagery is insufficient at capturing these smallholder farms. Thanks to the increasing density of observations and ease of access to very high resolution (VHR) data, we have developed a generalized method for mapping CA with VHR data and have used this to generate wall-to-wall CA map for the entire Tigray region and samples in Myanmar, Senegal, and Vietnam. Here we present the methodology and early results as well as potential future applications.

Exposure to famine in early life and the risk of obesity in adulthood in Qingdao: Evidence from the 1959-1961 Chinese famine.

PubMed

Liu, L; Pang, Z C; Sun, J P; Xue, B; Wang, S J; Ning, F; Qiao, Q

2017-02-01

We aimed to evaluate the association between famine exposure during early life and obesity and obesity max (obese at the highest weight) in adulthood. Data were from two population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2006 and 2009 in Qingdao, China. A total of 8185 subjects born between 1/1/1941 and 12/31/1971 were categorized into unexposed (born between 01/01/1962 and 12/31/1971), fetal/infant exposed (born between 01/01/1959 and 12/31/1961), childhood exposed (born between 01/01/1949 and 12/31/1958) and adolescence exposed (born between 01/01/1941 and 12/31/1948) according to their age when exposed to the Chinese famine from 1959 to 1961. Obesity was defined as BMI (body mass index) ≥28.0 and obesity max was defined as BMI max (BMI at the highest weight) ≥28.0. We compared fetal/infant exposed, childhood exposed and adolescence exposed to the unexposed using logistic regression models to assess the effect of famine exposure on later obesity and obesity max . Fetal/infant exposed (OR = 1.59, P < 0.001), childhood exposed (OR = 1.42, P < 0.01) and adolescence exposed (OR = 1.86, P < 0.01) all had higher risks of obesity than the unexposed. Exposure groups were more likely to be obese at their highest weight than the unexposed, and ORs (95%CIs) for obesity max in the fetal/infant exposed, childhood exposed and adolescence exposed were 1.49(1.20-1.86), 1.24(1.02-1.49) and 1.64 (1.40-1.93), respectively. Similar results were found in both men and women. Exposure to famine in early life was associated with increased risks of obesity and obesity max in adulthood. Preventing undernutrition in early life appears beneficial to reduce the prevalence of later obesity. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early gestation as the critical time-window for changes in the prenatal environment to affect the adult human blood methylome

PubMed Central

Tobi, Elmar W; Slieker, Roderick C; Stein, Aryeh D; Suchiman, H Eka D; Slagboom, P Eline; van Zwet, Erik W; Heijmans, Bastiaan T; Lumey, LH

2015-01-01

Background: The manipulation of pregnancy diets in animals can lead to changes in DNA methylation with phenotypic consequences in the offspring. Human studies have concentrated on the effects of nutrition during early gestation. Lacking in humans is an epigenome-wide association study of DNA methylation in relation to perturbations in nutrition across all gestation periods. Methods: We used the quasi-experimental setting of the Dutch famine of 1944–45 to evaluate the impact of famine exposure during specific 10-week gestation periods, or during any time in gestation, on genome-wide DNA methylation levels at age ∼ 59 years. In addition, we evaluated the impact of exposure during a shorter pre- and post-conception period. DNA methylation was assessed using the Illumina 450k array in whole blood among 422 individuals with prenatal famine exposure and 463 time- or sibling-controls without prenatal famine exposure. Results: Famine exposure during gestation weeks 1–10, but not weeks 11–20, 21–30 or 31-delivery, was associated with an increase in DNA methylation of CpG dinucleotides cg20823026 (FAM150B), cg10354880 (SLC38A2) and cg27370573 (PPAP2C) and a decrease of cg11496778 (OSBPL5/MRGPRG) (P < 5.9 × 10−7, PFDR < 0.031). There was an increase in methylation of TACC1 and ZNF385A after exposure during any time in gestation (P < 2.0 × 10−7, PFDR = 0.034) and a decrease of cg23989336 (TMEM105) after exposure around conception. These changes represent a shift of 0.3–0.6 standard deviations and are linked to genes involved in growth, development and metabolism. Conclusion: Early gestation, and not mid or late gestation, is identified as a critical time-period for adult DNA methylation changes in whole blood after prenatal exposure to famine. PMID:25944819

Early-Life Nutritional Programming of Type 2 Diabetes: Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence.

PubMed

Vaiserman, Alexander M

2017-03-05

Consistent evidence from both experimental and human studies suggest that inadequate nutrition in early life can contribute to risk of developing metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adult life. In human populations, most findings supporting a causative relationship between early-life malnutrition and subsequent risk of T2D were obtained from quasi-experimental studies ('natural experiments'). Prenatal and/or early postnatal exposures to famine were demonstrated to be associated with higher risk of T2D in many cohorts around the world. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of epigenetic regulation of gene expression as a possible major contributor to the link between the early-life famine exposure and T2D in adulthood. Findings from these studies suggest that prenatal exposure to the famine may result in induction of persistent epigenetic changes that have adaptive significance in postnatal development but can predispose to metabolic disorders including T2D at the late stages of life. In this review, quasi-experimental data on the developmental programming of T2D are summarized and recent research findings on changes in DNA methylation that mediate these effects are discussed.

Early-Life Nutritional Programming of Type 2 Diabetes: Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence

PubMed Central

Vaiserman, Alexander M.

2017-01-01

Consistent evidence from both experimental and human studies suggest that inadequate nutrition in early life can contribute to risk of developing metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adult life. In human populations, most findings supporting a causative relationship between early-life malnutrition and subsequent risk of T2D were obtained from quasi-experimental studies (‘natural experiments’). Prenatal and/or early postnatal exposures to famine were demonstrated to be associated with higher risk of T2D in many cohorts around the world. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of epigenetic regulation of gene expression as a possible major contributor to the link between the early-life famine exposure and T2D in adulthood. Findings from these studies suggest that prenatal exposure to the famine may result in induction of persistent epigenetic changes that have adaptive significance in postnatal development but can predispose to metabolic disorders including T2D at the late stages of life. In this review, quasi-experimental data on the developmental programming of T2D are summarized and recent research findings on changes in DNA methylation that mediate these effects are discussed. PMID:28273874

[Effects of the periodical spread of rinderpest on famine, epidemic, and tiger disasters in the late 17th Century].

PubMed

Kim, Dong Jin; Yoo, Han Sang; Lee, Hang

2014-04-01

This study clarifies the causes of the repetitive occurrences of such phenomena as rinderpest, epidemic, famine, and tiger disasters recorded in the Joseon Dynasty Chronicle and the Seungjeongwon Journals in the period of great catastrophe, the late 17th century in which the great Gyeongsin famine (1670~1671) and the great Eulbyeong famine (1695~1696) occurred, from the perspective that they were biological exchanges caused by the new arrival of rinderpest in the early 17th century. It is an objection to the achievements by existing studies which suggest that the great catastrophes occurring in the late 17th century are evidence of phenomena in a little ice age. First of all, rinderpest has had influence on East Asia as it had been spread from certain areas in Machuria in May 1636 through Joseon, where it raged throughout the nation, and then to the west part of Japan. The new arrival of rinderpest was indigenized in Joseon, where it was localized and spread periodically while it was adjusted to changes in the population of cattle with immunity in accordance with their life spans and reproduction rates. As the new rinderpest, which showed high pathogenicity in the early 17th century, was indigenized with its high mortality and continued until the late 17th century, it broke out periodically in general. Contrastively, epidemics like smallpox and measles that were indigenized as routine ones had occurred constantly from far past times. As a result, the rinderpest, which tried a new indigenization, and the human epidemics, which had been already indigenized long ago, were unexpectedly overlapped in their breakout, and hence great changes were noticed in the aspects of the human casualty due to epidemics. The outbreak of rinderpest resulted in famine due to lack of farming cattle, and the famine caused epidemics among people. The casualty of the human population due to the epidemics in turn led to negligence of farming cattle, which constituted factors that triggered rage and epidemics of rinderpest. The more the number of sources of infection and hosts with low immunity increased, the more lost human resources and farming cattle were lost, which led to a great famine. The periodic outbreak of the rinderpester along with the routine prevalence of various epidemics in the 17thcentury also had influenced on domestic and wild animals. Due to these phenomenon, full-fledged famines occurred that were incomparable with earlier ones. The number of domestic animals that were neglected by people who, faced with famines, were not able to take care of them was increased, and this might have brought about the rage of epidemics like rinderpest in domestic animals like cattle. The great Gyeongsin and Eulbyeong famines due to reoccurrence of the rinderpest in the late 17th century linked rinderpester, epidemics and great famines so that they interacted with each other. Furthermore, the recurring cycle of epidemics-famines-rinderpest-great famines constituted a great cycle with synergy, which resulted in eco-economic-historical great catastrophes accompanied by large scale casualties. Therefore, the Gyeongsin and Eulbyeong famines occurring in the late 17th century can be treated as events caused by the repetition of various periodic disastrous factors generated in 1670~1671 and in 1695~1696 respectively, and particularly as phenomena caused by biological exchanges based on rinderpester., rather than as little ice age phenomena due to relatively long term temperature lowering.

Premature brain aging in humans exposed to maternal nutrient restriction during early gestation.

PubMed

Franke, Katja; Gaser, Christian; Roseboom, Tessa J; Schwab, Matthias; de Rooij, Susanne R

2018-06-01

Prenatal exposure to undernutrition is widespread in both developing and industrialized countries, causing irreversible damage to the developing brain, resulting in altered brain structure and decreased cognitive function during adulthood. The Dutch famine in 1944/45 was a humanitarian disaster, now enabling studies of the effects of prenatal undernutrition during gestation on brain aging in late adulthood. We hypothesized that study participants prenatally exposed to maternal nutrient restriction (MNR) would demonstrate altered brain structure resembling premature brain aging in late adulthood, expecting the effect being stronger in men. Utilizing the Dutch famine birth cohort (n = 118; mean age: 67.5 ± 0.9 years), this study implements an innovative biomarker for individual brain aging, using structural neuroimaging. BrainAGE was calculated using state-of-the-art pattern recognition methods, trained on an independent healthy reference sample, then applied to the Dutch famine MRI sample, to evaluate the effects of prenatal undernutrition during early gestation on individual brain aging in late adulthood. Exposure to famine in early gestation was associated with BrainAGE scores indicative of an older-appearing brain in the male sample (mean difference to subjects born before famine: 4.3 years, p < 0.05). Furthermore, in explaining the observed variance in individual BrainAGE scores in the male sample, maternal age at birth, head circumference at birth, medical treatment of hypertension, history of cerebral incidences, actual heart rate, and current alcohol intake emerged to be the most influential variables (adjusted R 2  = 0.63, p < 0.01). The findings of our study on exposure to prenatal undernutrition being associated with a status of premature brain aging during late adulthood, as well as individual brain structure being shaped by birth- and late-life health characteristics, are strongly supporting the critical importance of sufficient nutrient supply during pregnancy. Interestingly, the status of premature brain aging in participants exposed to the Dutch famine during early gestation occurred in the absence of fetal growth restriction at birth as well as vascular pathology in late-life. Additionally, the neuroimaging brain aging biomarker presented in this study will further enable tracking effects of environmental influences or (preventive) treatments on individual brain maturation and aging in epidemiological and clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating root-zone soil moisture in the West Africa Sahel using remotely sensed rainfall and vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, Amy L.

Agricultural drought is characterized by shortages in precipitation, large differences between actual and potential evapotranspiration, and soil water deficits that impact crop growth and pasture productivity. Rainfall and other agrometeorological gauge networks in Sub-Saharan Africa are inadequate for drought early warning systems and hence, satellite-based estimates of rainfall and vegetation greenness provide the main sources of information. While a number of studies have described the empirical relationship between rainfall and vegetation greenness, these studies lack a process based approach that includes soil moisture storage. In Chapters I and II, I modeled soil moisture using satellite rainfall inputs and developed a new method for estimating soil moisture with NDVI calibrated to in situ and microwave soil moisture observations. By transforming both NDVI and rainfall into estimates of soil moisture I was able to easily compare these two datasets in a physically meaningful way. In Chapter II, I also show how the new NDVI derived soil moisture can be assimilated into a water balance model that calculates an index of crop water stress. Compared to the analogous rainfall derived estimates of soil moisture and crop stress the NDVI derived estimates were better correlated with millet yields. In Chapter III, I developed a metric for defining growing season drought events that negatively impact millet yields. This metric is based on the data and models used in the Chapters I and II. I then use this metric to evaluate the ability of a sophisticated land surface model to detect drought events. The analysis showed that this particular land surface model's soil moisture estimates do have the potential to benefit the food security and drought early warning communities. With a focus on soil moisture, this dissertation introduced new methods that utilized a variety of data and models for agricultural drought monitoring applications. These new methods facilitate a more quantitative, transparent `convergence of evidence' approach to identifying agricultural drought events that lead to food insecurity. Ideally, these new methods will contribute to better famine early warning and the timely delivery of food aid to reduce the human suffering caused by drought.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Shukla, S.; Getirana, A.; McNally, A.; Koster, R. D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Badr, H. S.; Roningen, J. M.; Kumar, S.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

A seamless and effective water deficit monitoring and early warning system is critical for assessing food security in Africa and the Middle East. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of drought and water availability monitoring products in the region. Next, it will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NASA GMAO's Catchment and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSMs. In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. To establish a climatology from 1981-2015, the two LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets with independent observations suggests that major droughts are well-reflected in the climatology. The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GEOS-5 (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model-5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System-2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region. Current work suggests that for the Blue Nile basin, (1) the combination of GEOS-5 and CFSv2 is equivalent in skill to the full North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME); and (2) the seasonal water deficit forecasting system skill for both soil moisture and streamflow anomalies is greater than the standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach.

Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

2015-12-01

Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework developed by GEOGLAM for monitoring crop conditions in support of the Agricultural Market Information System, we developed an EWCM system for countries at risk. We present the current status of that implementation and highlight achievements to date along with future plans to support the needs of the global agricultural monitoring community.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Remote Sensing for Food Security Monitoring in Afghanistan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

Two decades of war have severely weakened Afghanistan s economy and infrastructure. Along with larger impacts on civil stability, education and health care, the current conflict in Afghanistan has resulted in widespread hunger and destitution. The 2005 National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment conducted by the United Nations found that 6.6 million Afghans do not meet their minimum food requirements and approximately 400,000 people each year are seriously affected by natural disasters, such as droughts, floods and extreme weather conditions. Given the poor security situation in the country, systems that will enable remote observations of variations of climate and their impacts on food production are critical for providing an appropriate and timely response. This chapter describes the remote sensing systems and food security analyses that the US Agency for International Development s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) conducts in Afghanistan to monitor and provide information to international donors to ensure that adequate assistance is provided during this time of development and recovery.

Hydrologic modeling for monitoring water availability in Eastern and Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Pricope, N. G.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

Severe droughts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 in Ethiopia, Southern Africa, and Somalia have negatively impacted agriculture and municipal water supplies resulting in food and water insecurity. Information from remotely sensed data and field reports indicated that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation (FLDAS) accurately tracked both the anomalously low soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff conditions. This work presents efforts to more precisely monitor how the water balance responds to water availability deficits (i.e. drought) as estimated by the FLDAS with CHIRPS precipitation, MERRA-2 meteorological forcing and the Noah33 land surface model.Preliminary results indicate that FLDAS streamflow estimates are well correlated with observed streamflow where irrigation and other channel modifications are not present; FLDAS evapotranspiration (ET) is well correlated with ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) in Eastern and Southern Africa. We then use these results to monitor availability, and explore trends in water supply and demand.

Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarelli, A.

2007-12-01

Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be brought back to the general normative context predisposed by every state for the accomplishment of the service of civil protection. In synthesis: EWS are one of the activities engaged in disaster mitigation. Apart from the situation of trans national events, in which case the European Union has an important function in coordination, the activities of prevention are developed in individual states by their own civil protection systems. They are based on the principle of collaboration between the central government and the regional and local authorities, as these are the forms administration organization that are closer to the people and to emergency territorial needs. That being stated, the configuration of the EWS as typology having juridical importance is the result of an reconstructing operation based on elements of positive law and on an interpretative and researching activity able to furnish de iure condendo alternative solutions to the problems that the application of the typology can involve.

Climate science and famine early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel B.; Choularton, R.

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning.

PubMed

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-11-29

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning

PubMed Central

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

Famine as agricultural catastrophe: the crisis of 1622-4 in east Lancashire.

PubMed

Hoyle, R W

2010-01-01

This article argues that historians have paid insufficient attention to the agrarian roots of early modern English famines. While not dismissing the insights arising from entitlements theory, the article takes issue with recent writings that have explained the famine of 1622–3 in north-west England as an entitlements crisis. It offers new empirical evidence from an estate in east Lancashire to demonstrate the scale of the crisis in the early 1620s, using estate accounts to produce new price data and estimates of productivity. On the basis of oat tithe data, the scale of the shortfall in foodstuffs in the harvest of 1621 is demonstrated as being probably in the region of a third; that of the following year has to be inferred from price data. The evidence shows that the crisis was not limited to the arable economy, but was followed by an extensive restocking of the pastoral economy. The article therefore makes a contribution to the growing interest in weather as an exogenous factor.

Overview of main challenges for Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genesio, Lorenzo; Bacci, Maurizio; Baron, Christian; Diarra, Birama; di Vecchia, Andrea; Traoré, Seydou; Hassane, Idrissa; Ndiaye, Mamadou; Philippon, Nathalie; Tarchiani, Vieri

2010-05-01

In West Africa Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for food security have been widely recognized to have contributed in the last twenty years to better face famine emergencies. The improved understanding of the environmental and socio-economic dynamics of the region, a change in the causes for food insecurity and the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have favored the introduction of new approaches and the involvement of a network of stakeholders. In recent years the improvement of EWS has been concentrated in the adaptation and the transfer of existing tools rather than the development of the overall design of EWS in function of users needs, at the same time key scientific areas to be improved to provide major operational advancements needs to be better identified. This partially due to a difficulty of the research community to be in direct connection with operational processes and on the other side by an evident limit in following a demand driven approach due to the difficulties in modelling bio and social phenomena in a unique environment. In this context AMMA project had the ambitious objective of bridging the gap between state of the art research in the domains of geo-science and human related disciplines, and the operational EWS. The work carried out in AMMA, while improving the understanding of monsoon system, allowed to better orient research challenges in order to provide EWS with improved products effectively meeting the needs of end-users at different levels. In this work, advancements in providing appropriate information for the identification of agricultural risk zones by using short to long time forecasts are illustrated highlighting critical aspects still demanding scientific improvements.

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

Hydrologic modeling for monitoring water availability in Africa and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Getirana, A.; Arsenault, K. R.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

Drought impacts water resources required by crops and communities, in turn threatening lives and livelihoods. Early warning systems, which rely on inputs from hydro-climate models, are used to help manage risk and provide humanitarian assistance to the right place at the right time. However, translating advancements in hydro-climate science into action is a persistent and time-consuming challenge: scientists and decision-makers need to work together to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of the hydrological data products being produced. One organization that tackles this challenge is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which has been using evidence-based approaches to address food security since the 1980s.In this presentation, we describe the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), developed by FEWS NET and NASA hydrologic scientists to maximize the use of limited hydro-climatic observations for humanitarian applications. The FLDAS, an instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS), is comprised of land surface models driven by satellite rainfall inputs already familiar to FEWS NET food security analysts. First, we evaluate the quality of model outputs over parts of the Middle East and Africa using remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation indices. We then describe derived water availability indices that have been identified by analysts as potentially useful sources of information. Specifically, we demonstrate how the Baseline Water Stress and Drought Severity Index detect recent water availability crisis events in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin and the Gaborone Reservoir, Botswana. Finally we discuss ongoing work to deliver this information to FEWS NET analysts in a timely and user-friendly manner, with the ultimate goal of integrating these water availability metrics into regular decision-making activities.

Enhancing access and usage of earth observations to support environmental decision making in Eastern and Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Macharia, D.; Peterson, P.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Funk, C.; Flores, A.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing, reanalysis and model based earth observations (EOs) are crucial for environmental decision making, particularly in a region like Eastern and Southern Africa, where ground-based observations are sparse. NASA and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provide several EOs relevant for monitoring, providing early warning of agroclimatic conditions. Nonetheless, real-time application of those EOs for decision making in the region is still limited. This presentation reports on an ongoing SERVIR-supported Applied Science Team (AST) project that aims to fill that gap by working in close collaboration with Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), the NASA SERVIR regional hub. The three main avenues being taken to enhance access and usage of EOs in the region are: (1) Transition and implementation of web-based tools to RCMRD to allow easy processing and visualization of EOs (2) Capacity building of personnel from regional and national agroclimate service agencies in using EOs, through training using targeted case studies, and (3) Development of new datasets to meet the specific needs of RCMRD and regional stakeholders. The presentation will report on the initial success, lessons learned, and feedback thus far in this project regarding the implementation of web-based tool and capacity building efforts. It will also briefly describe three new datasets, currently in development, to improve agroclimate monitoring in the region, which are: (1) Satellite infrared and stations based temperature maximum dataset (CHIRTS) (2) NASA's GEOS5 and NCEP's CFSv2 based seasonal scale reference evapotranspiration forecasts and (3) NCEP's GEFS based medium range weather forecasts which are bias-corrected to USGS and UCSB's rainfall monitoring dataset (CHIRPS).

GEOGLAM Crop Assessment Tool: Adapting from global agricultural monitoring to food security monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Nordling, J.; Barker, B.; McGaughey, K.

2014-12-01

The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor's Crop Assessment Tool was released in August 2013 in support of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor's objective to develop transparent, timely crop condition assessments in primary agricultural production areas, highlighting potential hotspots of stress/bumper crops. The Crop Assessment Tool allows users to view satellite derived products, best available crop masks, and crop calendars (created in collaboration with GEOGLAM Crop Monitor partners), then in turn submit crop assessment entries detailing the crop's condition, drivers, impacts, trends, and other information. Although the Crop Assessment Tool was originally intended to collect data on major crop production at the global scale, the types of data collected are also relevant to the food security and rangelands monitoring communities. In line with the GEOGLAM Countries at Risk philosophy of "foster[ing] the coordination of product delivery and capacity building efforts for national and regional organizations, and the development of harmonized methods and tools", a modified version of the Crop Assessment Tool is being developed for the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). As a member of the Countries at Risk component of GEOGLAM, FEWS NET provides agricultural monitoring, timely food security assessments, and early warnings of potential significant food shortages focusing specifically on countries at risk of food security emergencies. While the FEWS NET adaptation of the Crop Assessment Tool focuses on crop production in the context of food security rather than large scale production, the data collected is nearly identical to the data collected by the Crop Monitor. If combined, the countries monitored by FEWS NET and GEOGLAM Crop Monitor would encompass over 90 countries representing the most important regions for crop production and food security.

Prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other causes through age 63 years.

PubMed

Ekamper, Peter; van Poppel, Frans; Stein, Aryeh D; Bijwaard, Govert E; Lumey, L H

2015-02-15

Nutritional conditions in early life may affect adult health, but prior studies of mortality have been limited to small samples. We evaluated the relationship between pre-/perinatal famine exposure during the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945 and mortality through age 63 years among 41,096 men born in 1944-1947 and examined at age 18 years for universal military service in the Netherlands. Of these men, 22,952 had been born around the time of the Dutch famine in 6 affected cities; the remainder served as unexposed controls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for death from cancer, heart disease, other natural causes, and external causes. After 1,853,023 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 1,938 deaths from cancer, 1,040 from heart disease, 1,418 from other natural causes, and 523 from external causes. We found no increase in mortality from cancer or cardiovascular disease after prenatal famine exposure. However, there were increases in mortality from other natural causes (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.49) and external causes (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.97) after famine exposure in the first trimester of gestation. Further follow-up of the cohort is needed to provide more accurate risk estimates of mortality from specific causes of death after nutritional disturbances during gestation and very early life. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2010-01-01

Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

2014-12-01

In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Effect of fetal and infant malnutrition on metabolism in older age.

PubMed

Klimek, Peter; Leitner, Miriam; Kautzky-Willer, Alexandra; Thurner, Stefan

2014-01-01

While malnutrition is an important concern in the developing world, Western countries are experiencing a pandemic of obesity and metabolic diseases. This work reviews the current state of knowledge of the effects of malnutrition during early life on metabolism in older age. The impact of early-life determinants on diabetes and related metabolic diseases in later life is elucidated by three different methodological approaches. First, results from animal studies in dietary manipulation models are reviewed. Second, findings from epidemiological studies that often use natural experiments to determine the effects of famines on the health status of the population are discussed. Finally, the relation between maternal or childhood malnutrition and diabetes in adulthood is explored in a big-data study using the entire population of a country across a century. We present overwhelming evidence that the maternal or early childhood nutritional status negatively affects both the short- and long-term health status and development of the offspring, thereby providing starting points to formulate intervention and prevention strategies. In particular, it was found that in the case of early-life exposure to famine, the risk of the offspring to develop type 2 diabetes in older age is up to 125% higher than without famine exposure. Due to its inherent complexity, an understanding of the long-term effects of maternal and childhood malnutrition on metabolism in older age necessitates interdisciplinary and big-data approaches. Only then can we hope to prevent chronic diseases at their earliest beginning. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Osteoporosis in survivors of early life starvation.

PubMed

Weisz, George M; Albury, William R

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to provide evidence for the association of early life nutritional deprivation and adult osteoporosis, in order to suggest that a history of such deprivation may be an indicator of increased risk of osteoporosis in later life. The 'fetal programming' of a range of metabolic and cardiovascular disorders in adults was first proposed in the 1990s and more recently extended to disorders of bone metabolism. Localised famines during World War II left populations in whom the long-term effects of maternal, fetal and infantile nutritional deprivation were studied. These studies supported the original concept of 'fetal programming' but did not consider bone metabolism. The present paper offers clinical data from another cohort of World War II famine survivors - those from the Holocaust. The data presented here, specifically addressing the issue of osteoporosis, report on 11 Holocaust survivors in Australia (five females, six males) who were exposed to starvation in early life. The cases show, in addition to other metabolic disorders associated with early life starvation, various levels of osteoporosis, often with premature onset. The cohort studied is too small to support firm conclusions, but the evidence suggests that the risk of adult osteoporosis in both males and females is increased by severe starvation early in life - not just in the period from gestation to infancy but also in childhood and young adulthood. It is recommended that epidemiological research on this issue be undertaken, to assist planning for the future health needs of immigrants to Australia coming from famine affected backgrounds. Pending such research, it would be prudent for primary care health workers to be alert to the prima facie association between early life starvation and adult osteoporosis, and to take this factor into account along with other indicators when assessing a patient's risk of osteoporosis in later life.

Food and water security scenarios for East Africa over next 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2013-12-01

Broad areas of East Africa face chronic water and agricultural insecurity. Over the last decade, the region has experienced frequent drought events leading to food security emergencies and even famine in Somalia in 2011. The impact of these drought events, associated with recent declines in rainfall during major growing seasons, has been particularly severe due to the high vulnerability of subsistence agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods, rapid population growth, and the limited availability of resources for agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded activity that brings together international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and food security information in Africa and other regions of the developing world. To assist USAID with planning agricultural development strategies over the next ten years in East Africa, FEWS NET is partnering with climate scientists and adaptation specialists at regional institutions to study and assess future changes in precipitation and temperature in light of global climate change, natural climate variability, and their related impacts on agricultural and water security in the region. The overarching objective of this study is to provide future scenarios of food and water security (as estimated by trends in soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) for East Africa. We do so by following two approaches: Constructed Analogs and the Composite Delta Method. In the first approach we downscaled climate projections (precipitation and temperature projections) of long-term Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) experiments over (a) historical (1850-2005) and (b) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2006-2030) periods. Current climate is characterized by two ENSO modes, the intensity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the strength of the Indo-Pacific warming signal (IPWS). These modes are used in conjunction with CMIP5-estimates of IPWS to project 2030 climate conditions. In the second approach we use the much simpler Composite Delta Method to generate climate projections. Future climate projections are generated by simply altering the mean observed climate to match the mean climate of the climate model projections. Projections of precipitation and temperature from both approaches were then used to drive NASA's FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) to simulate the hydrologic variables most relevant to agriculture and water security: runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These outputs inform 2030 food and water security scenarios for East Africa. Finally we also investigate the impact of precipitation versus temperature changes on agriculture and water security in East Africa. We do so by keeping either one of those forcings constant while using the actual projections of the other variable to generate projections of hydrologic variables as described above.

Prenatal exposure to the Great Chinese Famine and mid-age hypertension

PubMed Central

Ding, Yi; Zhou, Xiuwen

2017-01-01

Background One of the most terrible famines last century was Great Chinese Famine (GCF) in 1959~1961 when millions of people died from starving. Under-nutrition during famine between the Western and Eastern (Dutch Hungry vs. GCF) was similar, while cardiovascular consequences might not be the same. Addressing such questions may gain new insight into prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Methods A retrospective cohort of 18,593 participants aged 43–49 years of old, was from Suzhou, China. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the relative risk (RR) of hypertension and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). The multivariate RRs were adjusted for age, plasma glucose, triglyceride, and cholesterol. Results The multivariate RRs of systolic and diastolic pressure were not significantly elevated in the rural subgroups, but was higher in the urban population born in the famine (systolic pressure adjust RR 1.382, 95% CI 1.235–1.545, diastolic pressure adjust RR 1.569, 95% CI 1.415–1.740). The risks of hypertension were significantly higher among the urban subjects than that in the rural subgroups (systolic hypertension adjust RR 2.915, 95% CI 2.616–3.249, diastolic hypertension adjust RR 4.568, 95% CI 4.079–5.116). Percentile of optimal diastolic pressure at mid-age was significantly lower in the urban population prenatally exposed to the famine regardless of sexes. However, a similar reduction of percentage of optimal systolic pressure was only seen in the female, not the male population in the urban region. Conclusion The data suggest Asian genetic basis was not able to block famine-programmed vascular diseases as that happened in Europe, and the programmed problems due to under-nutrition could be reversed after birth. Protective mechanisms may be related to diet habits before age of 30 years old, which is important contribution to early prevention of hypertension. PMID:28498832

A nonadaptive scenario explaining the genetic predisposition to obesity: the "predation release" hypothesis.

PubMed

Speakman, John R

2007-07-01

The "thrifty gene hypothesis" suggests we evolved genes for efficient food collection and fat deposition to survive periods of famine and that now that food is continuously available, these genes are disadvantageous because they make us obese in preparation for a famine that never comes. However, famines are relatively infrequent modern phenomena that involve insufficient mortality for thrifty genes to propagate. I suggest here that early hominids would have been subjected to stabilizing selection for body fatness, with obesity selected against by the risk of predation. Around two million years ago predation was removed as a significant factor by the development of social behavior, weapons, and fire. The absence of predation led to a change in the population distribution of body fatness due to random mutations and drift. Because this novel hypothesis involves random drift, rather than directed selection, it explains why, even in Western society, most people are not obese.

On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

2010-05-01

Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

Regional Famine Patterns of The Last Millennium as Influenced by Aggregated Climate Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, Michael Melton

Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India. The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines. The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914. The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years. Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex and involve many factors including societal and climatic. This dissertation demonstrates that climate teleconnections impact famine patterns and often the aggregates of multiple climate variables hold the most significant climatic impact. These results will increase the understanding of famine patterns and will help to better allocate resources to alleviate future famines.

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

PubMed

Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

PubMed

Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

2018-05-01

To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Capacity Building with CHIRPS Amidst a Station-Recording Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.

2016-12-01

Station data are essential for improving the accuracy of satellite-derived rainfall products. However we face a severe reporting crisis as the number of available stations observations has declined precipitously. For example there were 2400 monthly stations available in Africa (excluding South Africa) in the 1980's, while at present there are about 500 stations (Figure 1). In this talk we describe how partnerships with regional and national collaborators can improve our collective ability to monitor food production and inform decision making. A high quality, long-term, high-resolution precipitation dataset is key for supporting agricultural drought monitoring, food security and early warning. Here we present the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center under the direction of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). This quasi-global precipitation product is available at daily to seasonal time scales with a spatial resolution of 0.05° and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. The Climate Hazards Group (CHG) has developed an extensive database of in situ daily, pentadal, and monthly precipitation totals with over a billion daily observations worldwide. Under support from the USAID FEWS NET, CHG/USGS has developed a two way strategy for incorporating contributed station data while providing web-based visualization tools to partners in developing nations. For example, we are currently working with partners in Mexico (Conagua), Southern Africa (SASSCAL), Colombia (IDEAM), Somalia (SWALIM) and Ethiopia (NMA). These institutions provide in situ observations which enhance the CHIRPS. The CHIRPS is then placed in a web accessible geospatial database. Partners in these countries can then access and display this information using web based mapping tools. This provides a win-win collaboration, leading to improved globally accessible precipitation estimates and improved climate services in developing nations.

An Agro-Climatological Early Warning Tool Based on the Google Earth Engine to Support Regional Food Security Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landsfeld, M. F.; Daudert, B.; Friedrichs, M.; Morton, C.; Hegewisch, K.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Peterson, P.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Verdin, J. P.; Williams, E. L.

2015-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) focuses on food insecurity in developing nations and provides objective, evidence based analysis to help government decision-makers and relief agencies plan for and respond to humanitarian emergencies. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a platform provided by Google Inc. to support scientific research and analysis of environmental data in their cloud environment. The intent is to allow scientists and independent researchers to mine massive collections of environmental data and leverage Google's vast computational resources to detect changes and monitor the Earth's surface and climate. GEE hosts an enormous amount of satellite imagery and climate archives, one of which is the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset (CHIRPS). The CHIRPS dataset is land based, quasi-global (latitude 50N-50S), 0.05 degree resolution, and has a relatively long term period of record (1981-present). CHIRPS is on a continuous monthly feed into the GEE as new data fields are generated each month. This precipitation dataset is a key input for FEWS NET monitoring and forecasting efforts. FEWS NET intends to leverage the GEE in order to provide analysts and scientists with flexible, interactive tools to aid in their monitoring and research efforts. These scientists often work in bandwidth limited regions, so lightweight Internet tools and services that bypass the need for downloading massive datasets to analyze them, are preferred for their work. The GEE provides just this type of service. We present a tool designed specifically for FEWS NET scientists to be utilized interactively for investigating and monitoring for agro-climatological issues. We are able to utilize the enormous GEE computing power to generate on-the-fly statistics to calculate precipitation anomalies, z-scores, percentiles and band ratios, and allow the user to interactively select custom areas for statistical time series comparisons and predictions.

Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

2017-12-01

Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

eMODIS Expedited: Overview of a Near Real Time MODIS Production System for Operational Vegetation Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkerson, C.; Meyer, D. J.; Werpy, J.; Evenson, K.; Merritt, M.

2010-12-01

The expedited MODIS, or eMODIS production system derives near-real time Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance provided by the Land and Atmosphere Near-real time Capability for EOS (LANCE). There are currently three regions covered by this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) capability, including the continental U.S., Africa, and the Central America/Caribbean regions. Each of the eMODIS production streams is configured to output its data in map projections, compositing intervals, spatial resolutions, and file formats specific to its region and user community. The challenges of processing 1,000-meter, 500-m, and especially 250-m products by midnight on the last day of a product interval have been met with increasingly effective software and system architecture. An anonymous file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS) allows users direct access to eMODIS NDVI products for operational (near-real time) monitoring of vegetation conditions like drought, crop failure, insect infestation, and other threats, thus supporting subsequent early warning of famine and the targeting of vulnerable populations for insecure food situations.

Grid-cell-based crop water accounting for the famine early warning system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, J.; Klaver, R.

2002-01-01

Rainfall monitoring is a regular activity of food security analysts for sub-Saharan Africa due to the potentially disastrous impact of drought. Crop water accounting schemes are used to track rainfall timing and amounts relative to phenological requirements, to infer water limitation impacts on yield. Unfortunately, many rain gauge reports are available only after significant delays, and the gauge locations leave large gaps in coverage. As an alternative, a grid-cell-based formulation for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was tested for maize in Southern Africa. Grids of input variables were obtained from remote sensing estimates of rainfall, meteorological models, and digital soil maps. The spatial WRSI was computed for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 growing seasons. Maize yields were estimated by regression and compared with a limited number of reports from the field for the 1996–97 season in Zimbabwe. Agreement at a useful level (r = 0·80) was observed. This is comparable to results from traditional analysis with station data. The findings demonstrate the complementary role that remote sensing, modelling, and geospatial analysis can play in an era when field data collection in sub-Saharan Africa is suffering an unfortunate decline.

The Role of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) In Military Cyber Attack Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

WARNING MISSIONS .....................................5  1.  Early North American Air Defense Warning ...................................5  2...BLANK xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.   North American Distant Early Warning (DEW) Site. .......................................6  Figure 2.   Original... Early Warning (AEW) Aircraft .........................................11  Figure 7.   Headquarters NORAD and USNORTHCOM

Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

2003-12-01

Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated warning systems and equity issues associated with possible differential access to warnings. Finally, we will review the status of legal authorities and liabilities faced by organizations that assume various warning system roles and possible approaches to setting up a pilot project to introduce early warning. Our presentation will suggest that introducing an early warning system requires multi-disciplinary and multi-agency cooperation and thoughtful discussion among organizations likely to be providers and participants in an early warning system. Recalling our experience with earthquake prediction, we will look at early warning as a promising but unproven technology and recommend moving forward with caution and patience.

Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James; Adams Chavula,; Gregory J. Husak,; Harikishan Jayanthi,; Tamuka Magadzire,

2013-01-01

During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun

2013-01-01

As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

2013-01-01

As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

PubMed

Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

2018-04-01

Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

Knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke among students enrolled in allied health programs: a pilot study.

PubMed

Milner, Abby; Lewis, William J; Ellis, Charles

2008-01-01

The inclusion of stroke education modules early in medical school curricula has resulted in improved stroke knowledge in graduate physicians. The success of these programs suggests that allied health professions programs should also consider strategies to improve stroke knowledge in students preparing for allied health careers that also require knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. Currently, little is known about stroke knowledge in students enrolled in allied health professions programs. 208 first- and second-year students enrolled in allied health programs completed a survey of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke. Risk factor knowledge - 99% identified smoking as a risk factor; 67% identified diabetes; 93% identified high cholesterol; 89% identified age; and 92% identified physical inactivity. Less than 50% of the students identified all 5 risk factors. There were no differences between first- and second-year students in risk factor knowledge. Early warning signs and first response knowledge - 89% recognized sudden confusion or trouble speaking; 94% recognized sudden facial, arm, or leg weakness; 65% recognized sudden vision loss; 82% recognized sudden trouble walking; and 73% recognized sudden headache as early warning signs of stroke. Eighty-one percent recognized calling 9-1-1 as the appropriate first action. However, only 25% recognized all five early warning signs and only 20% recognized all five early warning signs and would call 9-1-1 as the first action. There were differences between first- and second-year students in recognizing 3 of 5 early warning signs and appropriate first action to call 9-1-1. Most students recognized individual stroke risk factors and early warning signs but few recognized multiple risk factors and early warning signs of stroke.

Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

PubMed

Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

2013-04-01

We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to discriminate survivors from non-survivors in this critical care data set. Further work is needed to validate our new clinical early warning score externally in the obstetric ward environment. Anaesthesia © 2013 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

2010-01-01

This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; McNally, Amy; Husak, Gregory; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

 The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. More accurate seasonal agricultural drought forecasts for this region can inform better water and agricultural management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts and floods. Here we describe the development and implementation of a seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for East Africa (EA) that provides decision support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's science team. We evaluate this forecast system for a region of equatorial EA (2° S to 8° N, and 36° to 46° E) for the March-April-May growing season. This domain encompasses one of the most food insecure, climatically variable and socio-economically vulnerable regions in EA, and potentially the world: this region has experienced famine as recently as 2011. To assess the agricultural outlook for the upcoming season our forecast system simulates soil moisture (SM) scenarios using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model forced with climate scenarios for the upcoming season. First, to show that the VIC model is appropriate for this application we forced the model with high quality atmospheric observations and found that the resulting SM values were consistent with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), an index used by FEWS NET to estimate crop yields. Next we tested our forecasting system with hindcast runs (1993–2012). We found that initializing SM forecasts with start-of-season (5 March) SM conditions resulted in useful SM forecast skill (> 0.5 correlation) at 1-month, and in some cases at 3 month lead times. Similarly, when the forecast was initialized with mid-season (i.e. 5 April) SM conditions the skill until the end-of-season improved. This shows that early-season rainfall is critical for end-of-season outcomes. Finally we show that, in terms of forecasting spatial patterns of SM anomalies, the skill of this agricultural drought forecast system is generally greater (> 0.8 correlation) during drought years. This means that this system might be particularity useful for identifying the events that present the greatest risk to the region.

Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.

PubMed

Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang

2018-03-01

  The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.

Early identification systems for emerging foodborne hazards.

PubMed

Marvin, H J P; Kleter, G A; Prandini, A; Dekkers, S; Bolton, D J

2009-05-01

This paper provides a non-exhausting overview of early warning systems for emerging foodborne hazards that are operating in the various places in the world. Special attention is given to endpoint-focussed early warning systems (i.e. ECDC, ISIS and GPHIN) and hazard-focussed early warning systems (i.e. FVO, RASFF and OIE) and their merit to successfully identify a food safety problem in an early stage is discussed. Besides these early warning systems which are based on monitoring of either disease symptoms or hazards, also early warning systems and/or activities that intend to predict the occurrence of a food safety hazard in its very beginning of development or before that are described. Examples are trend analysis, horizon scanning, early warning systems for mycotoxins in maize and/or wheat and information exchange networks (e.g. OIE and GIEWS). Furthermore, recent initiatives that aim to develop predictive early warning systems based on the holistic principle are discussed. The assumption of the researchers applying this principle is that developments outside the food production chain that are either directly or indirectly related to the development of a particular food safety hazard may also provide valuable information to predict the development of this hazard.

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

2016-01-01

A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

Famine and war.

PubMed

Tamas, R

2008-01-01

History records that mankind has suffered at intervals from great famines. As recently as 1943, at least a million people died of famine in Bengal. In January 1943, a lot of soldiers of the Royal Hungarian Army died in Russia, at the River Don, because of the lack of food supply and insufficient healthcare. The enormous advances of science in this century have made the prevention and relief of famine technically easier. Subsequently, in many parts of the world, famine conditions have arisen, but fortunately on a smaller scale. In this work an attempt is made to set out a few general principles of famine.

Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Clear Air Force Station, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Ballistic Missile Early Warning System - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

PubMed

Anderson, Ian

2016-03-01

There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

2017-11-01

In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

2009-04-01

In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems Clear Air ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

Hunter-gatherers have less famine than agriculturalists.

PubMed

Berbesque, J Colette; Marlowe, Frank W; Shaw, Peter; Thompson, Peter

2014-01-01

The idea that hunter-gatherer societies experience more frequent famine than societies with other modes of subsistence is pervasive in the literature on human evolution. This idea underpins, for example, the 'thrifty genotype hypothesis'. This hypothesis proposes that our hunter-gatherer ancestors were adapted to frequent famines, and that these once adaptive 'thrifty genotypes' are now responsible for the current obesity epidemic. The suggestion that hunter-gatherers are more prone to famine also underlies the widespread assumption that these societies live in marginal habitats. Despite the ubiquity of references to 'feast and famine' in the literature describing our hunter-gatherer ancestors, it has rarely been tested whether hunter-gatherers suffer from more famine than other societies. Here, we analyse famine frequency and severity in a large cross-cultural database, in order to explore relationships between subsistence and famine risk. This is the first study to report that, if we control for habitat quality, hunter-gatherers actually had significantly less--not more--famine than other subsistence modes. This finding challenges some of the assumptions underlying for models of the evolution of the human diet, as well as our understanding of the recent epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

2015-10-01

The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

Grid-cell-based crop water accounting for the famine early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, James; Klaver, Robert

2002-06-01

Rainfall monitoring is a regular activity of food security analysts for sub-Saharan Africa due to the potentially disastrous impact of drought. Crop water accounting schemes are used to track rainfall timing and amounts relative to phenological requirements, to infer water limitation impacts on yield. Unfortunately, many rain gauge reports are available only after significant delays, and the gauge locations leave large gaps in coverage. As an alternative, a grid-cell-based formulation for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was tested for maize in Southern Africa. Grids of input variables were obtained from remote sensing estimates of rainfall, meteorological models, and digital soil maps. The spatial WRSI was computed for the 1996-97 and 1997-98 growing seasons. Maize yields were estimated by regression and compared with a limited number of reports from the field for the 1996-97 season in Zimbabwe. Agreement at a useful level (r = 0·80) was observed. This is comparable to results from traditional analysis with station data. The findings demonstrate the complementary role that remote sensing, modelling, and geospatial analysis can play in an era when field data collection in sub-Saharan Africa is suffering an unfortunate decline. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Monitoring and Predicting the African Climate for Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, W. M.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the greatest challenges in Africa due to its impact on access to sanitary water and food. In response to this challenge, the international community has mobilized to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water. This requires frequent updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA's African Desk in FEWS. Emphasis is on the operational products from short and medium range weather forecasts to subseasonal and seasonal outlooks in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts in support of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socio-economic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models that can now provide a better representation of the MJO, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These along with forecasts skill assessment and verifications are discussed. The presentation will also highlight regional hazards outlooks basis for FEWSNET food security outlooks.

The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review.

PubMed

Wuytack, Francesca; Meskell, Pauline; Conway, Aislinn; McDaid, Fiona; Santesso, Nancy; Hickey, Fergal G; Gillespie, Paddy; Raymakers, Adam J N; Smith, Valerie; Devane, Declan

2017-12-06

Changes to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs. We searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables. We identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified. Early warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there is a lack of high quality comparative studies to examine the effect of using early warning systems on patient outcomes. Such studies should include health economics assessments.

Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-01-01

Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo

2018-06-01

The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Getirana, Augusto; Kumar, Sujay V.; Roningen, Jeanne; Zaitchik, Ben; McNally, Amy; Koster, Randal D.; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2017-04-01

Drought and water scarcity are among the important issues facing several regions within Africa and the Middle East. A seamless and effective monitoring and early warning system is needed by regional/national stakeholders. Such system should support a proactive drought management approach and mitigate the socio-economic losses up to the extent possible. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of the LIS models used for drought and water availability monitoring in the region. The second part will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the monitoring and forecasting products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NOAA's Noah land surface model (LSM), version 3.3, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, version 4.12, NASA GMAO's Catchment LSM, and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSM (the latter two incorporate prognostic water table schemes). In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. The LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. The LIS software framework integrates these forcing datasets and drives the four LSMs and HyMAP. The Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) is used for the evaluation of the LSMs, as it provides model ensemble metrics and the ability to compare against a variety of remotely sensed measurements, like different evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture products, and other reanalysis datasets that are available for this region. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets will be shown for this region (and sub-basin level, e.g., Blue Nile River) and time period (1981-2015), along with evaluating ET, streamflow, groundwater storage and soil moisture, using evaluation metrics (e.g., anomaly correlation, RMSE, etc.). The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GMAO (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System, version 2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region.

Feast/famine regulatory proteins (FFRPs): Escherichia coli Lrp, AsnC and related archaeal transcription factors.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Katsushi; Ishijima, Sanae A; Clowney, Lester; Koike, Hideaki; Aramaki, Hironori; Tanaka, Chikako; Makino, Kozo; Suzuki, Masashi

2006-01-01

Feast/famine regulatory proteins comprise a diverse family of transcription factors, which have been referred to in various individual identifications, including Escherichia coli leucine-responsive regulatory protein and asparagine synthase C gene product. A full length feast/famine regulatory protein consists of the N-terminal DNA-binding domain and the C-domain, which is involved in dimerization and further assembly, thereby producing, for example, a disc or a chromatin-like cylinder. Various ligands of the size of amino acids bind at the interface between feast/famine regulatory protein dimers, thereby altering their assembly forms. Also, the combination of feast/famine regulatory protein subunits forming the same assembly is altered. In this way, a small number of feast/famine regulatory proteins are able to regulate a large number of genes in response to various environmental changes. Because feast/famine regulatory proteins are shared by archaea and eubacteria, the genome-wide regulation by feast/famine regulatory proteins is traceable back to their common ancestor, being the prototype of highly differentiated transcription regulatory mechanisms found in organisms nowadays.

Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

2016-01-01

Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

Improvements in agricultural water decision support using remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, M. T.

2012-12-01

Population driven water scarcity, aggravated by climate-driven evaporative demand in dry regions of the world, has the potential of transforming ecological and social systems to the point of armed conflict. Water shortages will be most severe in agricultural areas, as the priority shifts to urban and industrial use. In order to design, evaluate, and monitor appropriate mitigation strategies, predictive models must be developed that quantify exposure to water shortage. Remote sensing data has been used for more than three decades now to parametrize these models, because field measurements are costly and difficult in remote regions of the world. In the past decade, decision-makers for the first time can make accurate and near real-time evaluations of field conditions with the advent of hyper- spatial and spectral and coarse resolution continuous remote sensing data. Here, we summarize two projects representing diverse applications of remote sensing to improve agricultural water decision support. The first project employs MODIS (coarse resolution continuous data) to drive an evapotranspiration index, which is combined with the Standardized Precipitation Index driven by meteorological satellite data to improve famine early warning in Africa. The combined index is evaluated using district-level crop yield data from Kenya and Malawi and national-level crop yield data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. The second project utilizes hyper- spatial (GeoEye 1, Quickbird, IKONOS, and RapidEye) and spectral (Hyperion/ALI), as well as multi-spectral (Landsat ETM+, SPOT, and MODIS) data to develop biomass estimates for key crops (alfalfa, corn, cotton, and rice) in the Central Valley of California. Crop biomass is an important indicator of crop water productivity. The remote sensing data is combined using various data fusion techniques and evaluated with field data collected in the summer of 2012. We conclude with a brief discussion on implementation of these tools into two new decision support systems: FEWSNET Early Warning Explorer (http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/ewxindex.php) and the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (http://ecocast.arc.nasa.gov/) for the first and second project respectively.

A Feast of the Famine: The Irish Famine in Children's Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryan, Gregory

2005-01-01

The Great Hunger, one of the greatest human calamities in the world history led to Ireland's three million people surviving solely on potatoes that also resulted in the Great Potato Famine. Hence, in order to provide considerable attention to this calamity, books on the topic of Ireland's Great Potato Famine are listed, which provide both fiction…

World Hunger: Famine in Africa. Sample Lessons, Secondary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neeson, Eileen; And Others

This model social studies lesson includes a simulated interview with a relief worker describing the famine conditions in Ethiopia. A map of Africa and pictures of famine victims are included. The objectives of the lesson are to have students describe the situation in Ethiopia, analyze the causes, and evaluate solutions to the famine. In the model…

Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.

2012-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt

2011-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

2015-06-01

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...

The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fengru

2018-01-01

This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

The effect of the seasons of the year on malnutrition in North Korea.

PubMed

Schwekendiek, D

2009-01-01

North Korea's economic isolation as a consequence of its recent nuclear testing could lead to another famine. In this context, the article investigates health determinants of the last famine. Birth season is a reliable proxy for nutritional and epidemiological circumstances in early life, which in turn can systematically influence later-life health outcomes such as stature. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of birth seasons on the development of heights. Height-for-age z-scores for up to 9934 pre-school children measured in 1997 during the North Korean food crisis in the decade of the 1990 s and measured in 2002, are used for the analysis. Using these data, we have verified a number of earlier studies showing that cohorts born in winter are smaller. We have also found that cohorts born in autumn are taller. Additionally, when we control for sex, birthplace, and birth year, these calendar effects remain robust. Ignoring the humanitarian dilemma of any sort, it may be concluded that in totalitarian North Korea, Pyongyang can easily influence the biological welfare of its people by interfering with the birth calendar, in order to reduce the magnitude of a potentially upcoming famine.

The Irish famine of 1740-1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, S.; Mauelshagen, F.; Werner, J.; Luterbacher, J.

2013-05-01

The "Great Frost" of 1740 was one of the coldest winters of the eighteenth century and impacted many countries all over Europe. The years 1740-1741 have long been known as a period of general crisis caused by harvest failures, high prices for staple foods, and excess mortality. Vulnerabilities, coping capacities and adaptation processes varied considerably among different countries. This paper investigates the famine of 1740-1741 in Ireland applying a multi-indicator model developed specifically for the integration of an analysis of pre-famine vulnerability, the Famine Vulnerability Analysis Model (FVAM). Our focus is on Ireland, because famine has played a more outstanding role in Irish national history than in any other European country, due to the "Great Famine" of 1845-1852 and its long-term demographic effects. Our analysis shows that Ireland was already particularly vulnerable to famine in the first half of the eighteenth century. During and after the experience of hardship in 1740-1741, many Irish moved within Ireland or left the country entirely. We regard migration as a form of adaptation and argue that Irish migration in 1740-1741 should be considered as a case of climate-induced migration.

Prenatal Famine and Adult Health

PubMed Central

Lumey, L.H.; Stein, Aryeh D.; Susser, Ezra

2013-01-01

We review human studies on the relation between acute exposures to prenatal famine and adult physical and mental health. These studies are observational and include exposures to a famine environment by natural or man-made causes or, more commonly, from the interplay between natural and human factors. These natural experiments provide an opportunity to examine long-term outcomes after famine exposures by comparing exposed and nonexposed individuals. The studies show consistent associations between prenatal famine and adult body size, diabetes, and schizophrenia. For other measures of adult health, findings are less robust. A relation between prenatal famine and some reported epigenetic changes may provide a potential mechanism to explain specific associations. Much progress can be made if current separate studies are further analyzed with comparable definitions of exposures and outcomes and using common analytic strategies. PMID:21219171

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

2013-01-01

An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

78 FR 78321 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 [Docket No. NHTSA--2012-0068; Notice 3] RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect... final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting (EWR) accounts may obtain a copy of the VIN...

Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

PubMed

Gray, Rob

2011-02-01

A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

PubMed

Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

2016-04-01

To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. Furthermore, we found an association between higher scores and PICU mortality. This is the first validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score specific to the pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant populations, and supports the use of Pediatric Early Warning Scores as a method of early identification of clinical deterioration in this high-risk population.

Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can better adapt to different social settings and more efficiently reduce vulnerability.

Long-Term Impact of Famine: Enduring Disasters and Opportunities for Progress. Staff Report No. AGES870212.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mabbs-Zeno, Carl C.

Throughout history, famine has been linked to many of the most severe crises of humanity. Even with millenary of collective experience, the reaction of the world community to the an intense food crises fails to address the long-term impacts of famine. As governments and populations strive to cope with famine, many long-term changes take place in…

Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

Interim report: review of evidence of the health impact of famine in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Taye, A; Mariam, D Haile; Murray, V

2010-09-01

Historical accounts of famines in Ethiopia go as far back as the 9th century, however, evidence on its impact on health only started to emerge from the 15th century onwards. Unfortunately, famine has been endemic in Ethiopia in the last few decades. The 1973 famine is reported to have claimed over 300,000 lives. In 1985 approximately 10 million people were reported to be starving, with approximately 300,000 already dead and about 1000 dying daily. In the following years, droughts leading to food shortage have had local and national adverse health effects, in particular in 1999/2000. This paper describes the initial findings of a literature review of evidence on the health impact of droughts leading to famine in Ethiopia and highlights gaps in knowledge. The key finding, thus far, is the marked paucity of health impact data. This review also highlights the fact that adverse health impacts of famines are probably complex and long lasting. Interpretation of any health impact data is difficult as there are few baseline data to compare. Health effects also impact livelihoods. Livelihood disruption following famine does not just affect one generation but also subsequent generations. Surveillance systems are needed so that records of the health impacts of a drought that leads to famine can inform action. With climate change bringing increased likelihood of drought and famine in some parts of the world, the findings of this review could be beneficial not just for Ethiopia but also elsewhere.

Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

Treesearch

Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

2004-01-01

The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

Prenatal malnutrition and adult cognitive impairment: a natural experiment from the 1959-1961 Chinese famine.

PubMed

He, Ping; Liu, Li; Salas, J M Ian; Guo, Chao; Cheng, Yunfei; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2018-05-03

The current measures of cognitive functioning in adulthood do not indicate a long-term association with prenatal exposure to the Dutch famine. However, whether such association emerges in China is poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the potential effect of prenatal exposure to the 1959-1961 Chinese famine on adult cognitive impairment. We obtained data from the Second National Sample Survey on Disability implemented in thirty-one provinces in 2006, and restricted our analysis to 387 093 individuals born in 1956-1965. Cognitive impairment was defined as intelligence quotient (IQ) score under 70 and IQ of adults was evaluated by the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - China Revision. Famine severity was defined as excess death rate. The famine impact on adult cognitive impairment was estimated by difference-in-difference models, established by examining the variations of famine exposure across birth cohorts. Results show that compared with adults born in 1956-1958, those who were exposed to Chinese famine during gestation (born in 1959-1961) were at greater risk of cognitive impairment in the total sample. Stratified analyses showed that this effect was evident in males and females, but only in rural, not in urban areas. In conclusion, prenatal exposure to famine had an enduring deleterious effect on risk of cognitive impairment in rural adults.

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

In Our Own Eyes: A New Look at African History.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsodzo, Thompson Kumbirai

1997-01-01

An informal survey of textbooks used since 1982 in undergraduate classes in the University of Zimbabwe history department shows that only 8% were written by Africans. Relying on records made by foreigners pursuing colonial objectives, European historians view early Africa as a dark place of illiteracy, disease, famine, witchcraft, and cannibalism.…

Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

PubMed

Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

2017-07-10

to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre as avaliações, para aplicação do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro e do padrão de referência. Os dados foram processados e analisados nos programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences e VassarStats.net. O desempenho do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro foi avaliado por meio dos indicadores de sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos, área sob a curva ROC, razões de probabilidades e probabilidade pós-teste. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro apresentou sensibilidade de 73,9%, especificidade de 95,5%, valor preditivo positivo de 73,3%, valor preditivo negativo de 94,7%, área sob a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% e a probabilidade pós-teste positivo foi de 80%. o Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, apresentou bom desempenho, considerado válido para o reconhecimento de sinais de alerta de deterioração clínica das crianças estudadas. evaluar la precisión de la versión traducida y adaptada del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en el reconocimiento de la deterioración clínica. estudio de test diagnóstico para medir la precisión del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, en relación a un estándar de referencia. La muestra estuvo compuesta por 271 niños de 0 a 10 años, evaluadas de forma ciega por especialistas en pediatría, una enfermera y un médico, con intervalo de 5 a 10 minutos entre las evaluaciones, para aplicación del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño. Los datos fueron procesados y analizados en los programas Statistical Package for the Social Sciences y VassarStats.net. El desempeño del Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño fue evaluado por medio de los indicadores de sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictivos, área debajo de la curva ROC, razones de probabilidades y probabilidad postest. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño presentó sensibilidad de 73,9%, especificidad de 95,5%, valor predictivo positivo de 73,3%, valor predictivo negativo de 94,7%, área bajo la Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve de 91,9% y la probabilidad postest positivo fue de 80%. el Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para el contexto brasileño, presentó buen desempeño, considerado válido para el reconocimiento de señales de alerta de deterioración clínica de los niños estudiados.

A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

PubMed

Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

2014-07-01

The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Archetypes of famine and response.

PubMed

Howe, Paul

2010-01-01

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations--watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks--that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.

Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

2016-04-01

Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

Neonatal Early Warning Tools for recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in neonates cared for in the maternity setting: A retrospective case-control study.

PubMed

Paliwoda, Michelle; New, Karen; Bogossian, Fiona

2016-09-01

All newborns are at risk of deterioration as a result of failing to make the transition to extra uterine life. Signs of deterioration can be subtle and easily missed. It has been postulated that the use of an Early Warning Tool may assist clinicians in recognising and responding to signs of deterioration earlier in neonates, thereby preventing a serious adverse event. To examine whether observations from a Standard Observation Tool, applied to three neonatal Early Warning Tools, would hypothetically trigger an escalation of care more frequently than actual escalation of care using the Standard Observation Tool. A retrospective case-control study. A maternity unit in a tertiary public hospital in Australia. Neonates born in 2013 of greater than or equal to 34(+0) weeks gestation, admitted directly to the maternity ward from their birthing location and whose subsequent deterioration required admission to the neonatal unit, were identified as cases from databases of the study hospital. Each case was matched with three controls, inborn during the same period and who did not experience deterioration and neonatal unit admission. Clinical and physiological data recorded on a Standard Observation Tool, from time of admission to the maternity ward, for cases and controls were charted onto each of three Early Warning Tools. The primary outcome was whether the tool 'triggered an escalation of care'. Descriptive statistics (n, %, Mean and SD) were employed. Cases (n=26) comprised late preterm, early term and post-term neonates and matched by gestational age group with 3 controls (n=78). Overall, the Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care for 92.3% of cases compared to the Early Warning Tools; New South Wales Health 80.8%, United Kingdom Newborn Early Warning Chart 57.7% and The Australian Capital Territory Neonatal Early Warning Score 11.5%. Subgroup analysis by gestational age found differences between the tools in hypothetically triggering an escalation of care. The Standard Observation Tool triggered an escalation of care more frequently than the Early Warning Tools, which may be as a result of behavioural data captured on the Standard Observation Tool and escalated, which could not be on the Early Warning Tools. Findings demonstrate that a single tool applied to all gestational age ranges may not be effective in identifying early deterioration or may over trigger an escalation of care. Further research is required into the sensitivity and specificity of Early Warning Tools in neonatal sub-populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

PubMed Central

Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

2014-12-01

Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the concept a whirl and to shape science's future. Further functionality, improvements and possible profound changes have to implemented successively based on the users' evolving needs.

Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

History of greenness mapping at the EROS data center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Beek, Carolyn; Vandersnick, Richard

1993-01-01

In 1987, the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center (EDC)installed a system to acquire, process, and distribute advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite image data collected over North America. Using this system, the EDC began an experimental greenness mapping program as part of the U.S. Agency for the International Development Famine Early Warning System. The program used the greenness information derived from AVHRR data to identify potential outbreaks of locusts and grasshoppers in the Sahelian region of Africa. In 1988, the EDC began greenness mapping projects in Africa and the northern Great Plains of the United States. In 1989, the system was augmented to acquire AVHRR information for the rest of the world. As a result, the greenness mapping program was able to collect data for fire danger assessment, agricultural assessment, and land characterization. Illustrations of each of the mapping projects trace the chronology of the greenness mapping program at the EDC. Displays represent the initial activity in Africa and the transition of the north Great Plains project to the current conterminous U.S. project. The program's expansion to include Alaska, Eurasia, a prototype North America data set, and ultimately, an experimental global land 1-km product is also shown. The poster describes major technical advances in data processing, the development of derivative products, the magnitude of the data volume of each level, and major applications.

Drought in West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Drought settled over West Africa's Ivory Coast region when wet season rains came late in 2007. Instead of beginning in February, the rainy season didn't start until March, and steady rains didn't start until late March, said the Famine Early Warning System Network. Though the rain had started to alleviate the drought, vegetation was still depressed in parts of Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) between March 22 and April 6, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured the data used to make this image. The image shows current vegetation conditions compared to average conditions recorded since 2000. Areas where plants are growing more slowly or more sparsely than average are brown, while areas where vegetation is denser than average are green. The brown tint that dominates the image indicates that plants through most of the country are more sparse than normal. Among the crops affected by the lack of rain was West Africa's cocoa crop. About 70 percent of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa, and Cote d'Ivoire is a top grower, said Reuters. Cocoa prices climbed as the crop fell short. Farmers called the drought the worst in living memory, Reuters said. The delay in rainfall also led to water shortages in parts of Cote d'Ivoire, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

2009-01-01

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

Exploring Agro-Climatic Trends in Ethiopia Using CHIRPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedreros, D. H.; Funk, C. C.; Brown, M. E.; Korecha, D.; Seid, Y. M.

2015-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) uses the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) to monitor agricultural food production in different regions of the world. CHIRPS is a 1981-present, 5 day, approximately 5km resolution, rainfall product based on a combination of geostationary satellite observations, a high resolution climatology and in situ station observations. Furthermore, FEWS NET has developed a gridded implementation of the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), a water balance measurement indicator of crop performance. This study takes advantage of the CHIRPS' long term period of record and high spatial and temporal resolution to examine agro-climatic trends in Ethiopia. We use the CHIRPS rainfall dataset to calculate the WRSI for the boreal spring and summer crop seasons, as well as for spring-summer rangelands conditions. We find substantial long term rainfall declines in the spring and summer seasons across southeastern and northeastern Ethiopia. Crop Model results indicate that rainfall declines in the cropped regions have been associated with water deficits during the critical grain filling periods in well populated and/or highly vulnerable parts of eastern Ethiopia. WRSI results in the pastoral areas indicate substantial reductions in rangeland health during the later part of the growing seasons. These health declines correspond to the regions of Somaliland and Afar that have experienced chronic severe food insecurity since 2010. Key words: CHIRPS, satellite estimated rainfall, agricultural production

Sexual orientation and gender identity after prenatal exposure to the Dutch famine.

PubMed

de Rooij, Susanne R; Painter, Rebecca C; Swaab, Dick F; Roseboom, Tessa J

2009-06-01

Sexual differentiation of the human brain has been suggested to take place through exposure to sex steroids during intrauterine development. Animal experiments have shown that interference in this process by underfeeding of the mother can result in feminization of the male offspring. We explored the possible effects of prenatal exposure to famine on sexual orientation and gender identity in humans. We used the Klein Sexual Orientation Grid to assess sexual orientation and also assessed gender identity in a group of 380 men and 472 women who were born as term singletons around the time of the 1944-1945 Dutch famine. Prenatal exposure to famine did not affect sexual orientation in men or in women. Three people indicated having some gender identity problems: one woman born before the famine and one man and woman exposed to famine in late gestation. In men, a later birth order was associated with a non-exclusively heterosexual identification. In conclusion, we found no evidence for a significant association between exposure to famine in utero and altered sexual orientation and gender identity. The small sample size of participants with non-exclusively heterosexual identification (possibly due to underreporting of homosexuality) may have reduced our power to detect any differences.

Fifteen Years On: An Examination of the Irish Famine Curricula in New York and New Jersey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feeley, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Since the early 1980s Holocaust education and genocide studies programs at the primary, secondary and post-secondary educational levels have become commonplace and an accepted element of public school curriculum. As these programs and their curricula gained acceptance within public education, efforts to increase awareness of genocidal events…

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

2014-01-01

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

Ukraine

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

government seized grain and food from people’s homes, causing a major famine. Whereas the Holodomor famine of 1921 caused over one million deaths due to...starvation, the ’manmade’ Holodomor famine of 1932-1933 resulted in between five million and seven and one-half million Ukrainian deaths from

Effect of famine-phase reduced aeration on polyhydroxyalkanoate accumulation in aerobic granules.

PubMed

Vjayan, T; Vadivelu, V M

2017-12-01

The effects of variable aeration in the famine period on polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) accumulation in aerobic granules were investigated. Results showed that regardless of the aeration rates used during famine period, all aerobic granules achieved a similar chemical oxygen demand removal and PHA content. The decrease in famine-period aeration rates accelerated the maximum PHA accumulation together with increase in granular size and settling ability. The PHA-accumulating microorganisms were found to have shifted closer to the surface of the granules when the aeration rate was reduced. Moreover, PHA compositional changes occurred, where the hydroxyvalerate content had increased with the reduction in aeration rate. Ultimately, the results indicate that the requirement of aeration for PHA accumulation in aerobic granules is highly insignificant in the famine phase. PHA production in aerobic granules under zero aeration in the famine period may result in an energy input reduction of up to 74%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

2013-04-01

The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

2016-01-01

Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

School disengagement as a predictor of dropout, delinquency, and problem substance use during adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Henry, Kimberly L; Knight, Kelly E; Thornberry, Terence P

2012-02-01

Over the past 5 years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (N = 911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood.

School Disengagement as a Predictor of Dropout, Delinquency, and Problem Substance Use during Adolescence and Early Adulthood

PubMed Central

Henry, Kimberly L.; Knight, Kelly E.; Thornberry, Terence P.

2015-01-01

Over the past five years, a great deal of attention has been paid to the development of early warning systems for dropout prevention. These warning systems use a set of indicators based on official school records to identify youth at risk for dropout and then appropriately target intervention. The current study builds on this work by assessing the extent to which a school disengagement warning index predicts not only dropout but also other problem behaviors during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (n=911, 73% male, 68% African American, and 17% Latino) were used to examine the effects of a school disengagement warning index based on official 8th and 9th grade school records on subsequent dropout, as well as serious delinquency, official offending, and problem substance use during middle adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Results indicate that the school disengagement warning index is robustly related to dropout as well as serious problem behaviors across the three developmental stages, even after controlling for important potential confounders. High school dropout mediates the effect of the warning index on serious problem behaviors in early adulthood. PMID:21523389

[Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

PubMed

Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

2017-11-01

Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

2017-10-01

A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

2017-08-01

China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

PubMed

Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

2017-10-01

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

2017-04-01

This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

2010-12-01

Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.

ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

2014-08-29

Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs

PubMed Central

Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test. PMID:29538373

How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs.

PubMed

Wen, Haoyu; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test.

[Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

2015-06-01

To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos-Reyes, Jaime

2010-05-01

Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot of work. If it's a tsunami, you've got to get it down to the last Joe on the beach. This is the stuff that is really very hard." Given the above, the paper argues that there is a need for a systemic approach to early warning centres. Systemic means looking upon things as a system; systemic means seeing pattern and inter-relationship within a complex whole; i.e., to see events as products of the working of a system. System may be defined as a whole which is made of parts and relationships. Given this, ‘failure' may be seen as the product of a system and, within that, see death/injury/property loss etc. as results of the working of systems. This paper proposes a preliminary model of ‘early warning coordination centres' (EWCC); it should be highlighted that an EWCC is a subsystem of the Systemic Disaster Management System (SDMS) model.

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to potentially affected groups, and how mitigation strategies can be taken in response. This paper presents an outline of the protocol that was developed in the DEWFORA project, outlining the complementary roles of science, policy and societal uptake in effective drought forecasting and warning. A consensus on the need to emphasise the social component of early warning was reached when testing the DEWFORA early warning system protocol among experts from 18 countries.

An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

PubMed

Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

2013-07-01

An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

2017-03-01

The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

2017-11-01

Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

Long-run effects of gestation during the Dutch Hunger Winter famine on labor market and hospitalization outcomes.

PubMed

Scholte, Robert S; van den Berg, Gerard J; Lindeboom, Maarten

2015-01-01

The Dutch Hunger Winter (1944/45) is the most-studied famine in the literature on long-run effects of malnutrition in utero. Its temporal and spatial demarcations are clear, it was severe, it was not anticipated, and nutritional conditions in society were favorable and stable before and after the famine. This is the first study to analyze effects of in utero exposure on labor market outcomes and hospitalization late in life, and the first to use register data covering the full Dutch population to examine long-run effects of this famine. We provide results of famine exposure by sub-interval of gestation. We find a significantly negative effect of exposure during the first trimester of gestation on employment outcomes 53 or more years after birth. Hospitalization rates in the years before retirement are higher after middle or late gestational exposure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sara Ruddick's theory of maternal thinking applied to traditional Irish mothering.

PubMed

Radosh, Polly F

2008-07-01

This paper uses Sara Ruddick's theory of maternal thinking to explain patterns of Irish mothering that developed in Ireland following the Great Famine of 1845-1852. Ruddick's central thesis, that maternal thinking develops strategies for preserving the life of the child, fostering the child's growth, and shaping an acceptable child, is applied to the intersecting influences of famine memory, religion, education, and emigration in post-famine Ireland. The strict, moralistic, and highly inhibiting features of Irish culture that dominated the nineteenth and twentieth centuries are traceable to patterns of mothering that developed after the famine. While Irish mothers are often blamed for instilling values that stressed sexual repression and guilt, other cultural factors influenced maternal thinking. Mothers did foster highly repressive moral values that encouraged permanent celibacy and delayed marriage. This paper examines the larger cultural features that derived from political oppression and the famine as they imprinted these values.

Early Warnings for Local Labor Markets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matland, Marc A.

1976-01-01

This articles summarizes the National Planning Association's (NPA) experience in its initial efforts to develop an early warning system to anticipate job openings generated in local communities by large Federal procurement contracts. (WL)

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

2013-10-01

In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

PubMed

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

2014-11-01

On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

History and National Identity Construction: The Great Famine in Irish and Ukrainian History Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janmaat, Jan Germen

2006-01-01

This paper compares the narratives on the Famine in Irish and Ukrainian history textbooks and examines to what extent these narratives are colored by a nationalist discourse. It argues that the story of the Famine in Irish history textbooks has changed from nationalist propaganda to a more balanced narrative, and that this change was brought about…

Social crisis and epidemic disease in the famines of nineteenth-century India.

PubMed

Arnold, D

1993-12-01

The onset of famine in nineteenth-century India resulted in the breakdown of normal social relations and produced a series of often dysfunctional behavioural responses. Survival strategies like the use of 'famine foods' and migration in search of food and work facilitated the spread of such epidemic diseases as cholera, dysentery, malaria, and smallpox. Although many of these diseases are not normally thought of as having a synergistic relationship with malnutrition and hunger, they were linked to it (as the Madras famine of 1876-78 illustrates) through abnormal social and environmental conditions created by drought and an extreme crisis of substance.

Using NASA Products of the Water Cycle for Improved Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, D. L.; Doorn, B.; Engman, E. T.; Lawford, R. G.

2010-12-01

NASA Water Resources works within the Earth sciences and GEO community to leverage investments of space-based observation and modeling results including components of the hydrologic cycle into water resources management decision support tools for the goal towards the sustainable use of water. These Earth science hydrologic related observations and modeling products provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years. Observations of this type enable assessment of numerous water resources management issues including water scarcity, extreme events of drought and floods, and water quality. Examples of water cycle estimates make towards the contributions to the water management community include snow cover and snowpack, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, precipitation, streamflow and ground water. The availability of water is also contingent on the quality of water and hence water quality is an important part of NASA Water Resources. Water quality activities include both nonpoint source (agriculture land use, ecosystem disturbances, impervious surfaces, etc.) and direct remote sensing ( i.e., turbidity, algae, aquatic vegetation, temperature, etc.). . The NASA Water Resources Program organizes its projects under five functional themes: 1) stream-flow and flood forecasting; 2) water consumptive use and irrigation (includes evapotranspiration); 3) drought; 4) water quality; and 5) climate impacts on water resources. Currently NASA Water Resources is supporting 21 funded projects with 11 additional projects being concluded. To maximize the use of NASA water cycle measurements end to projects are supported with strong links with decision support systems. The NASA Water Resources Program works closely with other government agencies NOAA, USDA-FAS, USGS, AFWA, USAID, universities, and non-profit, international, and private sector organizations. International water cycle applications include: 1) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) being expanded for famine relief to many developing nations of the world using a NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS); 2) Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) global hydrology mapping program that extends their global hydrology to much finer resolutions through use of an optimized LDAS; 3) 'SERVIR' a visualization and monitoring center of Earth science information in Central America and East Africa with plans for additional locations in developing countries of the world; 4) installing NASA Water Information System Platforms (WISPs) strategically located throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in partnerships with USAID and the World Bank; and 5) Latin American capacity building efforts within GEO.

Standardizing Chaos: A Neo-Institutional Analysis of the INEE Minimum Standards for Education in Emergencies, Chronic Crises and Early Reconstruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bromley, Patricia; Andina, Marina

2010-01-01

Violent conflict and humanitarian disasters such as floods, famines, or tsunamis, have existed since the start of human history. However, it is only recently that education in these emergency situations has emerged as a visible organizational field. We aim to use a unique theoretical application of sociological neo-institutionalism to explain the…

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

PubMed

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-03-27

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

PubMed Central

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-01-01

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

PubMed

Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

2017-03-29

Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deshpande, Alina

This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

Let's Have a Famine!: Connecting Means and Ends in Teaching to Big Ideas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wassermann, Selma

2007-01-01

The social studies teachers of North Fork Senior Secondary School (a pseudonym) had organized an activity to raise students' levels of awareness of the tragic events taking place in Darfur by giving them a taste of what it is like to experience a famine. The North Fork "famine" would last from Friday afternoon at 3:00 until Saturday at…

The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

PubMed

Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

2018-02-02

This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

The Southern Oscillation and Prediction of `Der' Season Rainfall in Somalia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, P.

1992-05-01

Somalia survives in semiarid to arid conditions, with annual rainfall totals rarely exceeding 700 mm, which are divided between two seasons. Many areas are arid, with negligible precipitation. Seasonal totals are highly variable. Thus, any seasonal rainfall forecast would be of significant importance to both the agricultural and animal husbandry communities. An investigation was carried out to determine whether there is a relationship between the Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall. No relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation and rainfall during the midyear `Gu' season, but it is shown that the year-end `Der' season precipitation is attected by the Southern Oscillation in southern and central areas of Somalia. Three techniques were used: correlation, regression, and simple contingency tables. Correlations between the SOI (Southern Oscillation index) and seasonal rainfall vary from zero up to about 0.8, with higher correlations in the south, both for individual stations and for area-averaged rainfall. Regression provides some predictive capacity, but the `explanation' of the variation in rainfall is not particularly high. The contingency tables revealed that there were very few occasions of both high SOI and high seasonal rainfall, although there was a wide scatter of seasonal rainfall associated with a low SOI.It is concluded that the SOI would be useful for planners, governments, and agencies as one tool in food/famine early warning but that the relationships are not strong enough for the average farmer to place much reliance on forecasts produced solely using the SOI.

Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomposi, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Magadzire, T.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual precipitation variability and the main source of skill for seasonal climate predictions. Interannual precipitation variability linked to ENSO can have drastic impacts on agricultural systems and food resources in the semi-arid tropics, highlighting the need for increased information regarding ENSO's links to sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation variations. The present work describes a case study on recent precipitation variability during warm ENSO events (i.e. El Niño) for the austral summer rainy season (December-February) in Southern Africa. Using a blending of observational and model data, it is found that the probability distribution of precipitation varies according to the strength of El Niño events. Strong El Niño events show a much clearer tendency for drying than moderate or weak events, which have smaller absolute magnitude anomalies and larger spatial heterogeneity in the precipitation response. A dynamical exploration of the various precipitation responses is also completed. The techniques utilized can be easily expanded to study likelihood of drought during El Niño for a variety of other regions and also provides information about El Niño strength and its influence on regional teleconnections. Finally, this presentation will describe the channels by which seasonal forecasting information is disseminated in the region and utilized by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network to help mitigate the impacts of potential food insecurity crises.

Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental information to increase the public's understanding of earthquake shaking and protective behaviors.

Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

2018-01-01

The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan

2017-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.

Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

PubMed

Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

2013-02-01

Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

The impact of Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence: An integrative literature review and synthesis.

PubMed

Jensen, Jørghild Karlotte; Skår, Randi; Tveit, Bodil

2018-04-01

To describe, interpret and synthesise the current research findings on the impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients in general hospital wards. As patient safety initiatives designed to ensure the early identification and management of deteriorating patients, the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems have broad appeal. However, it is still unclear how these systems impact nurses' competence when these systems are used in general hospital wards. CINAHL, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE and Ovid MEDLINE databases were systematically searched for relevant articles. Articles were appraised, a thematic analysis was conducted, and similar and divergent perspectives on emergent themes and subthemes were extracted by a team of researchers. Thirty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. The analysis of findings showed how the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems impacted three competence areas: (i) Nurses' competence in assessing and caring for patients related to the subthemes: (a) sensing clinical deterioration and (b) the development of skills and knowledge. (ii). Nurses' competence in referring patients, related to the subthemes: (a) deciding whether to summon help and (b) the language and communication lines in the referral process. (ii) Nurses' coping and mastery experiences. The impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients is beneficial but also somewhat contradictory. A greater understanding of nurses' development of competence when using the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems will facilitate the design of implementation strategies and the use of these systems to improve practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chorneau, Tom

2012-01-01

School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

The Chemistry of Famine: Nutritional Controversies and the Irish Famine, c.1845–7

PubMed Central

Miller, Ian

2012-01-01

The activities of Irish medical practitioners in relieving the impact of the Irish Famine (c.1845–52) have been well documented. However, analysis of the function of contemporary medico-scientific ideas relating to food has remained mostly absent from Famine historiography. This is surprising, given the burgeoning influence of Liebigian chemistry and the rising social prominence of nutritional science in the 1840s. Within this article, I argue that the Famine opened up avenues for advocates of the social value of nutritional science to engage with politico-economic discussion regarding Irish dietary, social and economic transformation. Nutritional science was prominent within the activities of the Scientific Commission, the Central Board of Health and in debates regarding soup kitchen schemes. However, the practical inefficacy of many scientific suggestions resulted in public associations being forged between nutritional science and the inefficiencies of state relief policy, whilst emergent tensions between the state, science and the public encouraged scientists in Ireland to gradually distance themselves from state-sponsored relief practices. PMID:23112380

Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

2017-12-01

Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

PubMed Central

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

2014-01-01

Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

2017-12-01

Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

PubMed

Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

2017-11-01

This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-31

This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...

The effects of the Pro12Ala polymorphism of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 gene on glucose/insulin metabolism interact with prenatal exposure to famine.

PubMed

de Rooij, Susanne R; Painter, Rebecca C; Phillips, David I W; Osmond, Clive; Tanck, Michael W T; Defesche, Joep C; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Michels, Robert P J; Bleker, Otto P; Roseboom, Tessa J

2006-05-01

An adverse fetal environment may permanently modify the effects of specific genes on glucose tolerance, insulin secretion, and insulin sensitivity. In the present study, we assessed a possible interaction of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma2 Pro12Ala polymorphism with prenatal exposure to famine on glucose and insulin metabolism. We measured plasma glucose and insulin concentrations after an oral glucose tolerance test and determined the PPAR-gamma2 genotype among 675 term singletons born around the time of the 1944-1945 Dutch famine. A significant interaction effect between exposure to famine during midgestation and the PPAR-gamma2 Pro12Ala polymorphism was found on the prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes. The Ala allele of the PPAR-gamma2 gene was associated with a higher prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes but only in participants who had been prenatally exposed to famine during midgestation. Similar interactions were found for area under the curve for insulin and insulin increment ratio, which were lower for Ala carriers exposed to famine during midgestation. The effects of the PPAR-gamma2 Pro12Ala polymorphism on glucose and insulin metabolism may be modified by prenatal exposure to famine during midgestation. This is possibly due to a combined deficit in insulin secretion, as conferred by pancreatic beta-cell maldevelopment and carrier type of the Ala allele in the PPAR-gamma2 gene.

New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Schröter, Kai; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-11-01

Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

Quantification of excess risk for diabetes for those born in times of hunger, in an entire population of a nation, across a century.

PubMed

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Szell, Michael; Duftschmid, Georg; Endel, Gottfried; Kautzky-Willer, Alexandra; Kasper, David C

2013-03-19

Based on a unique dataset comprising all 325,000 Austrian patients that were under pharmaceutical treatment for diabetes during 2006 and 2007, we measured the excess risk of developing diabetes triggered by undernourishment in early life. We studied the percentage of all diabetes patients in the total population specifically for each year of birth, from 1917 to 2007. We found a massive excess risk of diabetes in people born during the times of the three major famines and immediately after, which occurred in Austria in the 20th century: 1918-1919, 1938, and 1946-1947. Depending on the region, there was an up to 40% higher chance of having diabetes when born in 1919-1921, compared with 1918 or 1922, where age-specific typical diabetes ratios are observed. The excess risk for diabetes was practically absent in those provinces of Austria that were less affected by the famines. We show that diabetes rates exhibit nontrivial, age-specific sex differences, and correlate with the economic wealth of the region. Our results might be of relevance for establishing higher awareness in the health system for those born in high-risk years, and underline the importance of ensuring sufficient nutrition in prenatal and early stages of life.

Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

2012-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

The Archean Nickel Famine Revisited.

PubMed

Konhauser, Kurt O; Robbins, Leslie J; Pecoits, Ernesto; Peacock, Caroline; Kappler, Andreas; Lalonde, Stefan V

2015-10-01

Iron formations (IF) preserve a history of Precambrian oceanic elemental abundance that can be exploited to examine nutrient limitations on early biological productivity. However, in order for IF to be employed as paleomarine proxies, lumped-process distribution coefficients for the element of interest must be experimentally determined or assumed. This necessitates consideration of bulk ocean chemistry and which authigenic ferric iron minerals controlled the sorption reactions. It also requires an assessment of metal mobilization reactions that might have occurred in the water column during particle descent and during post-depositional burial. Here, we summarize recent developments pertaining to the interpretation and fidelity of the IF record in reconstructions of oceanic trace element evolution. Using an updated compilation, we reexamine and validate temporal trends previously reported for the nickel content in IF (see Konhauser et al., 2009 ). Finally, we reevaluate the consequences of methanogen Ni starvation in the context of evolving views of the Archean ocean-climate system and how the Ni famine may have ultimately facilitated the rise in atmospheric oxygen.

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

Seismic Monitoring of Permafrost During Controlled Thaw: An Active-Source Experiment Using a Surface Orbital Vibrator and Fiber-Optic DAS Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, S.; Wood, T.; Lindsey, N.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Freifeld, B. M.; Gelvin, A.; Morales, A.; Saari, S.; Ekblaw, I.; Wagner, A. M.; Daley, T. M.; Robertson, M.; Martin, E. R.; Ulrich, C.; Bjella, K.

2016-12-01

Thawing of permafrost can cause ground deformations that threaten the integrity of civil infrastructure. It is essential to develop early warning systems that can identify critically warmed permafrost and issue warnings for hazard prevention and control. Seismic methods can play a pivotal role in such systems for at least two reasons: First, seismic velocities are indicative of mechanical strength of the subsurface and thus are directly relevant to engineering properties; Second, seismic velocities in permafrost systems are sensitive to pre-thaw warming, which makes it possible to issue early warnings before the occurrence of hazardous subsidence events. However, several questions remain: What are the seismic signatures that can be effectively used for early warning of permafrost thaw? Can seismic methods provide enough warning times for hazard prevention and control? In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using permanently installed seismic networks for early warnings of permafrost thaw. We conducted continuous active-source seismic monitoring of permafrost that was under controlled heating at CRREL's Fairbanks permafrost experiment station. We used a permanently installed surface orbital vibrator (SOV) as source and surface-trenched DAS arrays as receivers. The SOV is characterized by its excellent repeatability, automated operation, high energy level, and the rich frequency content (10-100 Hz) of the generated wavefields. The fiber-optic DAS arrays allow continuous recording of seismic data with dense spatial sampling (1-meter channel spacing), low cost, and low maintenance. This combination of SOV-DAS provides unique seismic datasets for observing time-lapse changes of warming permafrost at the field scale, hence providing an observational basis for design and development of early warning systems for permafrost thaw.

77 FR 55605 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-10

... requires quarterly reporting of early warning information: Production information; information on incidents... manufacturers, and other equipment manufacturers) and the annual production of the entity. The EWR information... vehicle type as part of [[Page 55608

Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

PubMed

Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

2018-04-01

Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

2018-06-01

As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

2017-03-01

This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

PubMed Central

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

2016-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

Volvo and Infiniti drivers' experiences with select crash avoidance technologies.

PubMed

Braitman, Keli A; McCartt, Anne T; Zuby, David S; Singer, Jeremiah

2010-06-01

Vehicle-based crash avoidance systems can potentially reduce crashes, but success depends on driver acceptance and understanding. This study gauged driver use, experience, and acceptance among early adopters of select technologies. Telephone interviews were conducted in early 2009 with 380 owners of Volvo vehicles equipped with forward collision warning with autobrake, lane departure warning, side-view assist, and/or active bi-xenon headlights and 485 owners of Infiniti vehicles with lane departure warning/prevention. Most owners kept systems turned on most of the time, especially forward collision warning with autobrake and side-view assist. The exception was lane departure prevention; many owners were unaware they had it, and the system must be activated each time the vehicle is started. Most owners reported being safer with the technologies and would want them again on their next vehicles. Perceived false or unnecessary warnings were fairly common, particularly with side-view assist. Some systems were annoying, especially lane departure warning. Many owners reported safer driving behaviors such as greater use of turn signals (lane departure warning), increased following distance (forward collision warning), and checking side mirrors more frequently (side-view assist), but some reported driving faster at night (active headlights). Despite some unnecessary or annoying warnings, most Volvo and Infiniti owners use crash avoidance systems most of the time. Among early adopters, the first requirement of effective warning systems (that owners use the technology) seems largely met. Systems requiring activation by drivers for each trip are used less often. Owner experience with the latest technologies from other automobile manufacturers should be studied, as well as for vehicles on which technologies are standard (versus optional) equipment. The effectiveness of technologies in preventing and mitigating crashes and injuries, and user acceptance of interfaces, should be examined as more vehicles with advanced technologies penetrate the fleet.

[Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children].

PubMed

Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin

2017-06-02

Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood, especially in community settings.

Optical Embedded Dust Sensor for Engine Protection and Early Warning on M1 Abrams/Ground Combat Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-11

warning of seal leakage or deterioration of air filters, thereby reducing engine damage and improving vehicle operational readiness. To be effective , the...for a comprehensive early warning and health management solution. To address the need for an effective dust detector for the AGT1500 engine and M1...an optical dust sensor for real-time continuous monitoring, and its effectiveness in quantitatively measuring dust penetration in the AGT1500 engine

[System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

PubMed

You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

2014-05-01

This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

Refuting the ticagrelor-aspirin black box warning: and proposing a ticagrelor early-PCI black box warning.

PubMed

DiNicolantonio, James J; Serebruany, Victor L; Tomek, Ales

2013-10-03

Ticagrelor, a novel reversible antiplatelet agent, has a black box warning to avoid maintenance doses of aspirin>100mg. However, a significant ticagrelor-early percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) interaction exists. To discuss the inappropriateness of the black box warning for aspirin doses>100mg with ticagrelor and the appropriateness (and need) for a black box warning for ticagrelor patients needing early (within 24 hours of randomization) PCI. The FDA Complete Response Review for ticagrelor indicates that aspirin doses ≥ 300 mg/daily was not a significant interaction. In the ticagrelor-aspirin ≥ 300 mg cohort, all-cause mortality (through study end) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality (through study end) were not significantly increased (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 0.84-1.93, p=0.262 and HR=1.39; 95% CI:0.87-2.2, p=0.170), respectively. However, in patients treated with early (within 24 hours) PCI, ticagrelor significantly increased all-cause mortality (30 day: HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p=0.002, and through study end, HR=1.41; 95% CI,1.08-1.84, p=0.012) and increased CV mortality (30 day: HR=1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.77, p=0.075, and through study end, HR=1.35; 95% CI, 0.995-1.82, p=0.054) compared to clopidogrel. Early-PCI was more prevalent in the US versus outside-US regions (61% versus 49%). The black box warning for the use of maintenance aspirin doses over 100mg/daily with ticagrelor is inappropriate and ignores the more important, credible, and highly significant ticagrelor-early PCI adverse interaction in PLATO. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast "Feast/Famine" Cycles for Studying Microbial Physiology Under Dynamic Conditions: A Case Study with Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Suarez-Mendez, Camilo A; Sousa, Andre; Heijnen, Joseph J; Wahl, Aljoscha

2014-05-15

Microorganisms are constantly exposed to rapidly changing conditions, under natural as well as industrial production scale environments, especially due to large-scale substrate mixing limitations. In this work, we present an experimental approach based on a dynamic feast/famine regime (400 s) that leads to repetitive cycles with moderate changes in substrate availability in an aerobic glucose cultivation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. After a few cycles, the feast/famine produced a stable and repetitive pattern with a reproducible metabolic response in time, thus providing a robust platform for studying the microorganism's physiology under dynamic conditions. We found that the biomass yield was slightly reduced (-5%) under the feast/famine regime, while the averaged substrate and oxygen consumption as well as the carbon dioxide production rates were comparable. The dynamic response of the intracellular metabolites showed specific differences in comparison to other dynamic experiments (especially stimulus-response experiments, SRE). Remarkably, the frequently reported ATP paradox observed in single pulse experiments was not present during the repetitive perturbations applied here. We found that intracellular dynamic accumulations led to an uncoupling of the substrate uptake rate (up to 9-fold change at 20 s.) Moreover, the dynamic profiles of the intracellular metabolites obtained with the feast/famine suggest the presence of regulatory mechanisms that resulted in a delayed response. With the feast famine setup many cellular states can be measured at high frequency given the feature of reproducible cycles. The feast/famine regime is thus a versatile platform for systems biology approaches, which can help us to identify and investigate metabolite regulations under realistic conditions (e.g., large-scale bioreactors or natural environments).

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

2016-05-01

In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

2016-07-01

With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's | Alzheimer's disease | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

MedlinePlus

... please turn Javascript on. Feature: Alzheimer's Disease 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's Past Issues / Fall 2010 Table ... is to alert the public to the early warning signs of Alzheimer's disease. If someone has several ...

Educator Evaluation and the Use of the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). Updated September 9, 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

2013-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education first released the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) data for grades 1-12 in the 2012-13 school year. The Department created the EWIS in direct response to educators' requests for early indicator data across multiple grade levels. The EWIS is a "tool to systematically…

Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

2013-01-01

This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

IG Statement: Arthur A. Elkins, Jr., on OIG report Early Warning Report: Main EPA Headquarters Warehouse in Landover, Maryland, Requires Immediate EPA Attention

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Statement of Inspector General Arthur A. Elkins, Jr., on the Office of Inspector General (OIG) report Early Warning Report: Main EPA Headquarters Warehouse in Landover, Maryland, Requires Immediate EPA Attention.

Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

PubMed Central

Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

2016-01-01

Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

2011-01-01

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

PubMed

Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

2014-11-01

To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

2018-05-01

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

2014-12-01

Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state drought preparedness council and will be provided to stake holders through the website of the Texas state water planning agency. We will also present the results of our ongoing work on using NASA satellite based soil moisture and vegetation stress measurements to further improve the reliability of the summer drought early warning indicator.

Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools.

PubMed

Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl

Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi;

Research on intelligent scenic security early warning platform based on high resolution image: real scene linkage and real-time LBS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baishou; Huang, Yu; Lan, Guangquan; Li, Tingting; Lu, Ting; Yao, Mingxing; Luo, Yuandan; Li, Boxiang; Qian, Yongyou; Gao, Yujiu

2015-12-01

This paper design and implement security monitor system within a scenic spot for tourists, the scenic spot staff can be automatic real time for visitors to perception and monitoring, and visitors can also know about themselves location in the scenic, real-time and obtain the 3D imaging conditions of scenic area. Through early warning can realize "parent-child relation", preventing the old man and child lost and wandering. Research results to the further development of virtual reality to provide effective security early warning platform of the theoretical basis and practical reference.

Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

Drought as a Catalyst for Early Medieval European Subsistence Crises and Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludlow, Francis; Cook, Edward; Kostick, Conor; McCormick, Michael

2016-04-01

Tree-ring records provide one of most reliable means of reconstructing past climatic conditions, from longer-term multi-decadal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation to inter-annual variability, including years that experienced extreme weather. When combined with written records of past societal behaviour and the incidence of major societal stresses (e.g., famine, disease, and conflict), such records hold the potential to shed new light on historical interactions between climate and society. Recent years have seen the continued development of long dendroclimatic reconstructions, including, most recently the development of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA; Cook et al., 2015) which for the first time makes available a robust reconstruction of spring-summer hydroclimatic conditions and extremes for the greater European region, including the entirety of the Dark Ages. In this paper, we examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and well-dated reports of severe drought in early medieval European annals and chronicles, and find a clear statistical correspondence, further confirming the accuracy of the OWDA and its importance as an independent record of hydroclimatic extremes, a resource that can now be drawn upon in both paleoclimatology and studies of climatic impacts on human society. We proceed to examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and the incidence of a range of major societal stresses (scarcity and famine, epidemic disease, and mass human mortality) drawn from an exhaustive survey of early medieval European annals and chronicles. The outcome of this comparison firmly implicates drought as a significant driver of major societal stresses during early medieval times. Using a record of the violent killings of societal elites recorded on a continuous annual basis in medieval Irish monastic annals, we further examine the role of hydroclimatic extremes as triggers in medieval violence and conflict.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

2013-01-01

Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

2016-01-01

Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

78 FR 68831 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-15

... Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of Education Sciences/National Center... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: New collection. Respondents... planning a two-part evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System (EWIMS), consisting...

78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-12

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION [Docket No.: ED-2013-ICCD-0106] Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: A new information collection...

Real-time earthquake data feasible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

2016-02-01

As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Famine food of vegetal origin consumed in the Netherlands during World War II.

PubMed

Vorstenbosch, Tom; de Zwarte, Ingrid; Duistermaat, Leni; van Andel, Tinde

2017-11-17

Periods of extreme food shortages during war force people to eat food that they normally do not consider edible. The last time that countries in Western Europe experienced severe scarcities was during World War II. The so-called Dutch famine or Hunger Winter (1944-1945) made at least 25,000 victims. The Dutch government took action by opening soup kitchens and providing information on wild plants and other famine food sources in "wartime cookbooks." The Dutch wartime diet has never been examined from an ethnobotanical perspective. We interviewed 78 elderly Dutch citizens to verify what they remembered of the consumption of vegetal and fungal famine food during World War II by them and their close surroundings. We asked whether they experienced any adverse effects from consuming famine food plants and how they knew they were edible. We identified plant species mentioned during interviews by their local Dutch names and illustrated field guides and floras. We hypothesized that people living in rural areas consumed more wild species than urban people. A Welch t test was performed to verify whether the number of wild and cultivated species differed between urban and rural citizens. A total number of 38 emergency food species (14 cultivated and 21 wild plants, three wild fungi) were mentioned during interviews. Sugar beets, tulip bulbs, and potato peels were most frequently consumed. Regularly eaten wild species were common nettle, blackberry, and beechnuts. Almost one third of our interviewees explicitly described to have experienced extreme hunger during the war. People from rural areas listed significantly more wild species than urban people. The number of cultivated species consumed by both groups was similar. Negative effects were limited to sore throats and stomachache from the consumption of sugar beets and tulip bulbs. Knowledge on the edibility of famine food was obtained largely by oral transmission; few people remembered the written recipes in wartime cookbooks. This research shows that 71 years after the Second World War, knowledge on famine food species, once crucial for people's survival, is still present in the Dutch society. The information on famine food sources supplied by several institutions was not distributed widely. For the necessary revival of famine food knowledge during the 1940s, people needed to consult a small group of elders. Presumed toxicity was a major reason given by our participants to explain why they did not collect wild plants or mushrooms during the war.

Experience from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.

2010-07-01

Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as dialogue between the various actors.

Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought in Countries at Risk: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Budde, M. E.; Husak, G. J.; Jayanthi, H.

2013-12-01

The Group on Earth Observations' Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) implementation plan emphasizes the information needs of countries at risk of food insecurity emergencies. Countries in this category are often vulnerable to disruption of agricultural production due to drought, while at the same time they lack well developed networks of in-situ observations to support early drought detection. Consequently, it is vital that Earth observations by satellites supplement those available from surface stations. The USGS, in its role as a FEWS NET implementing partner, has recently developed a number of new applications of satellite observations for this purpose. (1) In partnership with the University of California, Santa Barbara, a 30+ year time series of gridded precipitation estimates (CHIRPS) has been developed by blending NOAA GridSat B1 geostationary thermal infrared imagery with station observations using robust geostatistical methods. The core data set consists of pentadal (5-daily) accumulations from 1981-2013 at 0.05 degree spatial resolution between +/- 50 degrees latitude. Validation has been recently completed, and applications for gridded crop water balance calculations and mapping the Standardized Precipitation Index are in development. (2) Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) estimates using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data at 1-km have been successfully demonstrated using the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model with 8-day composites from the LPDAAC. A new, next-day latency implementation using daily LST swath data from the NASA LANCE server is in development for all the crop growing regions of the world. This ETa processing chain follows in the footsteps of (3) the expedited production of MODIS 250-meter NDVI images every five days at USGS EROS, likewise using LANCE daily swath data as input since 2010. Coverage includes Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, Central America, and the Caribbean. (4) A surface water point monitoring method for pastoralist areas has been successfully demonstrated. It involves mapping small surface water bodies with ASTER and Landsat imagery, delineating their catchment areas with SRTM elevation data, and maintaining a continuous water balance calculation with satellite rainfall and weather model evaporation estimates to track relative fullness of these ephemeral water bodies. Piloted with NASA funds in partnership with Texas A&M University, the technique is now being implemented across the Sahel. (5) To move beyond monitoring and early warning to disaster risk management, loss exceedence probability functions are being derived for crop production shortfalls in FEWS NET countries. Drought hazard indicators, based on both ETa and crop water balance modeling forced by CHIRPS, have been used to develop regional crop drought risk models. In the case of ETa, the drought risk model provides the basis for index insurance in experiments being conducted in Senegal. A program of training events with GEO partners ensures that the data sets and applications are made available to scientists in FEWS NET countries.

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Early warning system for aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

1994-01-01

A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-04-01

As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

PubMed

Basher, Reid

2006-08-15

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

PubMed

Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

2017-07-01

Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Military Intervention to Stop Mass Atrocities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-04

the circumstances where the United States should respond militarily. Early warning and prevention strategies are vital since these approaches allow...34genocide." As early as 1933, Lemkin addressed the issue of genocide in a paper he sent to a League of Nations conference in Madrid, Spain. He...2017, https://www.ushmm.org/confront- genocide/speakers-and-events/all-speakers-and-events/ early -warning-and-prevention/the-united-states- measures-to

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce warning on a daily basis for the entire region.

Monitoring Global Food Security with New Remote Sensing Products and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Magadzire, T.; Verdin, J. P.

2012-12-01

Global agriculture monitoring is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of using remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pests, and climate change. In recent years, it has become apparent that FEWS NET requires the ability to apply monitoring and modeling frameworks at a global scale to assess potential impacts of foreign production and markets on food security at regional, national, and local levels. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group have provided new and improved data products as well as visualization and analysis tools in support of the increased mandate for remote monitoring. We present our monitoring products for measuring actual evapotranspiration (ETa), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a near-real-time mode, and satellite-based rainfall estimates and derivatives. USGS FEWS NET has implemented a Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model to produce operational ETa anomalies for Africa and Central Asia. During the growing season, ETa anomalies express surplus or deficit crop water use, which is directly related to crop condition and biomass. We present current operational products and provide supporting validation of the SSEB model. The expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (eMODIS) production system provides FEWS NET with an improved NDVI dataset for crop and rangeland monitoring. eMODIS NDVI provides a reliable data stream with a relatively high spatial resolution (250-m) and short latency period (less than 12 hours) which allows for better operational vegetation monitoring. We provide an overview of these data and cite specific applications for crop monitoring. FEWS NET uses satellite rainfall estimates as inputs for monitoring agricultural food production and driving crop water balance models. We present a series of derived rainfall products and provide an update on efforts to improve satellite-based estimates. We also present advancements in monitoring tools, namely, the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) and interactive rainfall and NDVI time series viewers. The EWX is a data analysis and visualization tool that allows users to rapidly visualize multiple remote sensing datasets and compare standardized anomaly maps and time series. The interactive time series viewers allow users to analyze rainfall and NDVI time series over multiple spatial domains. New and improved data products and more targeted analysis tools are a necessity as food security monitoring requirements expand and resources become limited.

Satellite-based drought monitoring in Kenya in an operational setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klisch, A.; Atzberger, C.; Luminari, L.

2015-04-01

The University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) in Vienna (Austria) in cooperation with the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) in Nairobi (Kenya) has setup an operational processing chain for mapping drought occurrence and strength for the territory of Kenya using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI at 250 m ground resolution from 2000 onwards. The processing chain employs a modified Whittaker smoother providing consistent NDVI "Mondayimages" in near real-time (NRT) at a 7-daily updating interval. The approach constrains temporally extrapolated NDVI values based on reasonable temporal NDVI paths. Contrary to other competing approaches, the processing chain provides a modelled uncertainty range for each pixel and time step. The uncertainties are calculated by a hindcast analysis of the NRT products against an "optimum" filtering. To detect droughts, the vegetation condition index (VCI) is calculated at pixel level and is spatially aggregated to administrative units. Starting from weekly temporal resolution, the indicator is also aggregated for 1- and 3-monthly intervals considering available uncertainty information. Analysts at NDMA use the spatially/temporally aggregated VCI and basic image products for their monthly bulletins. Based on the provided bio-physical indicators as well as a number of socio-economic indicators, contingency funds are released by NDMA to sustain counties in drought conditions. The paper shows the successful application of the products within NDMA by providing a retrospective analysis applied to droughts in 2006, 2009 and 2011. Some comparisons with alternative products (e.g. FEWS NET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network) highlight main differences.

Calculating crop water requirement satisfaction in the West Africa Sahel with remotely sensed soil moisture

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNally, Amy; Gregory J. Husak,; Molly Brown,; Carroll, Mark L.; Funk, Christopher C.; Soni Yatheendradas,; Kristi Arsenault,; Christa Peters-Lidard,; Verdin, James

2015-01-01

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will provide soil moisture data with unprecedented accuracy, resolution, and coverage, enabling models to better track agricultural drought and estimate yields. In turn, this information can be used to shape policy related to food and water from commodity markets to humanitarian relief efforts. New data alone, however, do not translate to improvements in drought and yield forecasts. New tools will be needed to transform SMAP data into agriculturally meaningful products. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possibility and efficiency of replacing the rainfall-derived soil moisture component of a crop water stress index with SMAP data. The approach is demonstrated with 0.1°-resolution, ~10-day microwave soil moisture from the European Space Agency and simulated soil moisture from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System. Over a West Africa domain, the approach is evaluated by comparing the different soil moisture estimates and their resulting Water Requirement Satisfaction Index values from 2000 to 2010. This study highlights how the ensemble of indices performs during wet versus dry years, over different land-cover types, and the correlation with national-level millet yields. The new approach is a feasible and useful way to quantitatively assess how satellite-derived rainfall and soil moisture track agricultural water deficits. Given the importance of soil moisture in many applications, ranging from agriculture to public health to fire, this study should inspire other modeling communities to reformulate existing tools to take advantage of SMAP data.

Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and landslides are communicated in Norway and discussing the questions above, we intend to add to the discussion on what is the ethical responsibility for scientists performing forecasting and communication of natural hazards.

Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

2015-03-01

Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

Early Warning Signs. A Solution-Finding Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Robert, Comp.

2017-01-01

This Solution-Finding Report provides information, requested by Tara Zuber with the Great Lakes Comprehensive Center (GLCC) at American Institutes for Research (AIR), for resources with evidence-based practices that look at the social and emotional causes that impact the lack of student learning and engagement, for GLCC's Early Warning Signs work.…

Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

2018-04-01

With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

Effect of famine on fertility in a rural area of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Razzaque, A

1988-07-01

Data on household socioeconomic status collected in the 1974 census and registration data on births, deaths, and migrations for the 1974-77 period from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, were used to investigate the effects of the 1974-75 famine on differential fertility in a rural population of Bangladesh. Occupation of household head was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Overall, fertility declined by 34% over the 1975-76 period and increased by 17% in 1976-77 from the 1974-75 figure. Significantly lower fertility was observed in 1975-76, irrespective of socioeconomic status, but the lower socioeconomic groups were affected more than the higher groups. Post-famine fertility was significantly higher only in the 2 middle occupation categories. The age-specific fertility rates suggest that the famine affected all age groups. The post-famine fertility was higher than that of 1974-75 in all but those aged below 20. At age 40 and over the recovery was slight. Husband-wife separation showed an increase during the famine and particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups. The males of the lower socioeconomic households migrated to other regions to obtain food for the family, thus affecting frequency of coitus. The decline in fertility may be due to several factors: deferred marriage; increase in divorces and husband-wife separations; high fetal wastage; voluntary fertility control through contraception, abstention, or induced abortion; and infecundability. An indirect measure of marriage rate indicated that fewer couples entered into marriage in 1974-75, particularly in the lower socioeconomic groups. Both the higher and lower socioeconomic groups were affected by the famine but the precise mechanisms were not the same. At this stage, it is not feasible to estimate the contribution of each factor to the fertility decline. The lower socioeconomic groups were more affected by husband-wife separations and deferred marriages; the higher socioeconomic groups were affected by mental stress and anxiety.

Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

2013-11-30

Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

PubMed

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

2015-08-11

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

PubMed Central

Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

2015-01-01

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

A fundamental conflict of care: Nurses' accounts of balancing patients' sleep with taking vital sign observations at night.

PubMed

Hope, Joanna; Recio-Saucedo, Alejandra; Fogg, Carole; Griffiths, Peter; Smith, Gary B; Westwood, Greta; Schmidt, Paul E

2017-12-21

To explore why adherence to vital sign observations scheduled by an early warning score protocol reduces at night. Regular vital sign observations can reduce avoidable deterioration in hospital. early warning score protocols set the frequency of these observations by the severity of a patient's condition. Vital sign observations are taken less frequently at night, even with an early warning score in place, but no literature has explored why. A qualitative interpretative design informed this study. Seventeen semi-structured interviews with nursing staff working on wards with varying levels of adherence to scheduled vital sign observations. A thematic analysis approach was used. At night, nursing teams found it difficult to balance the competing care goals of supporting sleep with taking vital sign observations. The night-time frequency of these observations was determined by clinical judgement, ward-level expectations of observation timing and the risk of disturbing other patients. Patients with COPD or dementia could be under-monitored, while patients nearing the end of life could be over-monitored. In this study, we found an early warning score algorithm focused on deterioration prevention did not account for long-term management or palliative care trajectories. Nurses were therefore less inclined to wake such patients to take vital sign observations at night. However, the perception of widespread exceptions and lack of evidence regarding optimum frequency risks delegitimising the early warning score approach. This may pose a risk to patient safety, particularly patients with dementia or chronic conditions. Nurses should document exceptions and discuss these with the wider team. Hospitals should monitor why vital sign observations are missed at night, identify which groups are under-monitored and provide guidance on prioritising competing expectations. early warning score protocols should take account of different care trajectories. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Clinical Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

2013-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

Drivers of measles mortality: the historic fatality burden of famine in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mahmud, A S; Alam, N; Metcalf, C J E

2017-12-01

Measles is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of measles have varied widely from place to place, as well as in the same location over time. Amongst populations that have experienced famine or armed conflict, measles CFR can be especially high, although past work has mostly focused on refugee populations. Here, we estimate measles CFR between 1970 and 1991 in a rural region of Bangladesh, which experienced civil war and famine in the 1970s. We use historical measles mortality data and a mechanistic model of measles transmission to estimate the CFR of measles. We first demonstrate the ability of this model to recover the CFR in the absence of incidence data, using simulated mortality data. Our method produces CFR estimates that correspond closely to independent estimates from surveillance data and we can capture both the magnitude and the change in CFR suggested by these previous estimates. We use this method to quantify the sharp increase in CFR that resulted in a large number of deaths during a measles outbreak in the region in 1976. Most of the children who died during this outbreak were born during a famine in 1974, or in the 2 years preceding the famine. Our results suggest that the period of turmoil during and after the 1971 war and the sustained effects of the famine, is likely to have contributed to the high fatality burden of the 1976 measles outbreak in Matlab.

Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

PubMed Central

Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

2016-01-01

Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

Development and Experimental Application of International Affairs Indicators. Volume B. Supportive Research

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-06-01

i INDICATORS Approaches to Early Warning The Quantitative Indicators Approach: A ... 5 Summary Indicators and Early Warning...Indicators for Early ^ Wa rning 3. Quantitative Signs of Unusual or Ominous Activity 9 13 4. Simulated Cables 25 5 . TEXSCAN...Behavior) for Czechoslovakia 1 mmmmm mmm LIST OF FIGURES vi Pa£« 1. 2. 3. 4. 5 . 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. U. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18

Validating modeled soil moisture with in-situ data for agricultural drought monitoring in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Yatheendradas, S.; Jayanthi, H.; Funk, C. C.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2011-12-01

The declaration of famine in Somalia on July 21, 2011 highlights the need for regional hydroclimate analysis at a scale that is relevant for agropastoral drought monitoring. A particularly critical and robust component of such a drought monitoring system is a land surface model (LSM). We are currently enhancing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitoring activities by configuring a custom instance of NASA's Land Information System (LIS) called the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). Using the LIS Noah LSM, in-situ measurements, and remotely sensed data, we focus on the following question: How can Noah be best parameterized to accurately simulate hydroclimate variables associated with crop performance? Parameter value testing and validation is done by comparing modeled soil moisture against fortuitously available in-situ soil moisture observations in the West Africa. Direct testing and application of the FLDAS over African agropastoral locations is subject to some issues: [1] In many regions that are vulnerable to food insecurity ground based measurements of precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture are sparse or non-existent, [2] standard landcover classes (e.g., the University of Maryland 5 km dataset), do not include representations of specific agricultural crops with relevant parameter values, and phenologies representing their growth stages from the planting date and [3] physically based land surface models and remote sensing rain data might still need to be calibrated or bias-corrected for the regions of interest. This research aims to address these issues by focusing on sites in the West African countries of Mali, Niger, and Benin where in-situ rainfall and soil moisture measurements are available from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Preliminary results from model experiments over Southern Malawi, validated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and maize yield data, show that the ability to detect a drought signal in modeled soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration was sensitive to parameters like minimum stomatal resistance, green vegetation fraction, and minimum threshold for transpiration stress. In addition to improving our understanding and representation of the land surface physics in agropastoral drought, this study moves us closer to confidently validating LSM estimates with remotely sensed data (e.g. MODIS NDVI), essential in regions that lack ground based measurements. Ultimately, these improved information products serve to better inform decision makers about seasonal food production and anticipate the need for relief, as well as guide climate change adaptation strategies, potentially saving millions of lives.

Neural correlates of cigarette health warning avoidance among smokers.

PubMed

Stothart, George; Maynard, Olivia; Lavis, Rosie; Munafò, Marcus

2016-04-01

Eye-tracking technology has indicated that daily smokers actively avoid pictorial cigarette package health warnings. Avoidance may be due to a pre-cognitive perceptual bias or a higher order cognitive bias, such as reduced emotional processing. Using electroencephalography (EEG), this study aimed to identify the temporal point at which smokers' responses to health warnings begin to differ. Non-smokers (n=20) and daily smokers (n=20) viewed pictorial cigarette package health warnings and neutral control stimuli. These elicited Event Related Potentials reflecting early perceptual processing (visual P1), pre-attentive change detection (visual Mismatch Negativity), selective attentional orientation (P3) and a measure of emotional processing, the Late Positive Potential (LPP). There was no evidence for a difference in P1 responses between smokers and non-smokers. There was no difference in vMMN and P3 amplitude but some evidence for a delay in vMMN latency amongst smokers. There was strong evidence for delayed and reduced LPP to health warning stimuli amongst smokers compared to non-smokers. We find no evidence for an early perceptual bias in smokers' visual perception of health warnings but strong evidence that smokers are less sensitive to the emotional content of cigarette health warnings. Future health warning development should focus on increasing the emotional salience of pictorial health warning content amongst smokers. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adolescents perceived effectiveness of the proposed European graphic tobacco warning labels.

PubMed

Vardavas, Constantine I; Connolly, Gregory; Karamanolis, Kostas; Kafatos, Anthony

2009-04-01

Graphical tobacco product labelling is a prominent source of health information and has an important position among tobacco control initiatives. However, little is known about its effectiveness among adolescents. With this above in mind, we aimed to research into how adolescents perceive the proposed EU graphic tobacco product warning labels as an effective means of preventing smoking initiation in comparison to the current EU text-only warning labels. Five hundred seventy four adolescents (13-18, 54% male) from Greece were privately interviewed, with the use of a digital questionnaire and randomly shown seven existing EU text-only and proposed EU graphic warning labels. Non-smoking respondents were asked to compare and rate the warnings effectiveness in regard to preventing them from smoking on a 1-5 Likert type scale. Irrespective of the warning category shown, on all occasions, non-smoking adolescents rated the suggested EU graphic labels as more effective in preventing them from smoking in comparison to the existing EU text-only warnings. Controlling for gender, age, current smoking status and number of cigarettes smoked per month, younger adolescents were found to opt for graphic warnings more often, and also perceive graphic warning labels as a more effective means of preventing them from smoking, in comparison to their elder peers (P < 0.001). The proposed EU graphic warning labels may play an important role in preventing of smoking initiation during the crucial years of early adolescence when smoking experimentation and early addiction usually take place.

Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

2012-01-01

An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

PubMed

Swinden, Donna

2014-08-28

USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

Early Warning Indicator System: Supporting K-12 Educators in the Identification, Support, and Monitoring of At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2016

2016-01-01

A rise in data availability gives educators the opportunity to tailor instructional practices and interventions to student needs and invest resources in areas where students require the most support. Massachusetts developed the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), which synthesizes the wealth of student data available in the state, including…

Regional drought early warning, impacts, and assessment for water and agriculture in the lower Rio Grande basin, 2016-2017

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

USDA’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (SPCH) and the University of Oklahoma’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) contributed to a broad, multi-partnered effort to provide drought early warning information to water and agriculture management interests in the middle and lower Rio Grande ba...

A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

2015-01-01

To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

An Analysis of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tambini, Robert F.

The quality and the effectiveness of the 1992 New Jersey Grade 8 Early Warning Test (NJEWT) are assessed. Standardized tests possess clear advantages for educators, especially in the case of administration and scoring, but there are clear disadvantages as well, including the possibility of bias. Four criteria are applied to the NJEWT: adequacy,…

Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

1985-01-01

Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

Are Famine Food Plants Also Ethnomedicinal Plants? An Ethnomedicinal Appraisal of Famine Food Plants of Two Districts of Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Azam, Fardous Mohammad Safiul; Biswas, Anup; Mannan, Abdul; Afsana, Nusrat Anik; Jahan, Rownak

2014-01-01

Plants have served as sources of food and medicines for human beings since their advent. During famines or conditions of food scarcity, people throughout the world depend on unconventional plant items to satiate their hunger and meet their nutritional needs. Malnourished people often suffer from various diseases, much more than people eating a balanced diet. We are hypothesizing that the unconventional food plants that people eat during times of scarcity of their normal diet are also medicinal plants and thus can play a role in satiating hunger, meeting nutritional needs, and serving therapeutic purposes. Towards testing our hypothesis, surveys were carried out among the low income people of four villages in Lalmonirhat and Nilphamari districts of Bangladesh. People and particularly the low income people of these two districts suffer each year from a seasonal famine known as Monga. Over 200 informants from 167 households in the villages were interviewed with the help of a semistructured questionnaire and the guided field-walk method. The informants mentioned a total of 34 plant species that they consumed during Monga. Published literature shows that all the species consumed had ethnomedicinal uses. It is concluded that famine food plants also serve as ethnomedicinal plants. PMID:24701245

Secretive Food Concocting in Binge Eating: Test of a Famine Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Boggiano, Mary M.; Turan, Bulent; Maldonado, Christine R.; Oswald, Kimberly D.; Shuman, Ellen S.

2016-01-01

Objective Food concocting, or making strange food mixtures, is well documented in the famine and experimental semistarvation literature and appears anecdotally in rare descriptions of eating disorder (ED) patients but has never been scientifically investigated. Here we do so in the context of binge-eating using a “famine hypothesis of concocting.” Method A sample of 552 adults varying in binge eating and dieting traits completed a Concocting Survey created for this study. Exploratory ED groups were created to obtain predictions as to the nature of concocting in clinical populations. Results Binge eating predicted the 24.6% of participants who reported having ever concocted but dietary restraint, independently, even after controlling for binge eating, predicted its frequency and salience. Craving was the main motive. Emotions while concocting mirrored classic high-arousal symptoms associated with drug use; while eating the concoctions were associated with intensely negative/self-deprecating emotions. Concocting prevalence and salience was greater in the anorexia > bulimia > BED > no ED groups, consistent with their respectively incrementing dieting scores. Discussion Concocting distinguishes binge eating from other overeating and, consistent with the famine hypothesis, is accounted for by dietary restraint. Unlike its adaptive function in famine, concocting could worsen binge-eating disorders by increasing negative effect, shame, and secrecy. Its assessment in these disorders may prove therapeutically valuable. PMID:23255044

Secretive food concocting in binge eating: test of a famine hypothesis.

PubMed

Boggiano, Mary M; Turan, Bulent; Maldonado, Christine R; Oswald, Kimberly D; Shuman, Ellen S

2013-04-01

Food concocting, or making strange food mixtures, is well documented in the famine and experimental semistarvation literature and appears anecdotally in rare descriptions of eating disorder (ED) patients but has never been scientifically investigated. Here we do so in the context of binge-eating using a "famine hypothesis of concocting." A sample of 552 adults varying in binge eating and dieting traits completed a Concocting Survey created for this study. Exploratory ED groups were created to obtain predictions as to the nature of concocting in clinical populations. Binge eating predicted the 24.6% of participants who reported having ever concocted but dietary restraint, independently, even after controlling for binge eating, predicted its frequency and salience. Craving was the main motive. Emotions while concocting mirrored classic high-arousal symptoms associated with drug use; while eating the concoctions were associated with intensely negative/self-deprecating emotions. Concocting prevalence and salience was greater in the anorexia > bulimia > BED > no ED groups, consistent with their respectively incrementing dieting scores. Concocting distinguishes binge eating from other overeating and, consistent with the famine hypothesis, is accounted for by dietary restraint. Unlike its adaptive function in famine, concocting could worsen binge-eating disorders by increasing negative effect, shame, and secrecy. Its assessment in these disorders may prove therapeutically valuable. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Packaging: a grounded theory of how to report physiological deterioration effectively.

PubMed

Andrews, Tom; Waterman, Heather

2005-12-01

The aim of this paper is to present a study of how ward-based staff use vital signs and the Early Warning Score to package physiological deterioration effectively to ensure successful referral to doctors. The literature tends to emphasize the identification of premonitory signs in predicting physiological deterioration. However, these signs lack sensitivity and specificity, and there is evidence that nurses rely on subjective and subtle indicators. The Early Warning Score was developed for the early detection of deterioration and has been widely implemented, with various modifications. The data reported here form part of a larger study investigating the practical problems faced by general ward staff in detecting physiological deterioration. During 2002, interviews and observations were carried out using a grounded theory approach, and a total of 44 participants were interviewed (30 nurses, 7 doctors and 7 health care support workers). Participants reported that quantifiable evidence is the most effective means of referring patients to doctors, and the Early Warning Score achieves this by improving communication between professionals. Rather than reporting changes in individual vital signs, the Early Warning Score effectively packages them together, resulting in a much more convincing referral. It gives nurses a precise, concise and unambiguous means of communicating deterioration, and confidence in using medical language. Thus, nurses are empowered and doctors can focus quickly on identified problems. The Early Warning Score leads to successful referral of patients by providing an agreed framework for assessment, increasing confidence in the use of medical language and empowering nurses. It is essential that nurses and nursing students are supported in its use and in developing confidence in using medical language by continued emphasis on physiology and pathophysiology in the nursing curriculum.

Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

PubMed

Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

2016-01-01

Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

The analysis of behavior in orbit GSS two series of US early-warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukhov, P. P.; Epishev, V. P.; Sukhov, K. P.; Motrunych, I. I.

2016-09-01

Satellites Early Warning System Series class SBIRS US Air Force must replace on GEO early series DSP Series. During 2014-2016 the authors received more than 30 light curves "DSP-18 and "Sbirs-Geo 2". The analysis of the behavior of these satellites in orbit by a coordinate and photometric data. It is shown that for the monitoring of the Earth's surface is enough to place GEO 4 unit SBIRS across 90 deg.

Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

2015-04-01

The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

2010-05-01

The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the system and to extend the CCUI with hazard specific functionality. The presentation covers the DEWS project, the system architecture and the CCUI in conjunction with details of information logistics. The DEWS Wide Area Centre connecting national centres to allow the international communication and warning exchange is presented also. REFERENCES: [1] DEWS, www.dews-online.org [2] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [3] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [4] Eclipse RCP, www.eclipse.org/home/categories/rcp.php [5] uDig, udig.refractions.net [6] WMS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wms [7] WFS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wfs [8] WPS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wps [9] OASIS, www.oasis-open.org [10] CAP, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#capv1.1 [11] EDXL-DE, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#edxlde-v1.0 [12] SOAP, www.w3.org/TR/soap [13] GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone Indian Ocean region, www.gitews.org [14] The Tsunami Service Bus is the GITEWS sensor system integration platform offering standardised services for the detection and monitoring of tsunamis

An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

2017-01-01

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

Ukrainian Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-08

holodomor – a mass famine artificially created by imposed unrealistically high quotas on grain production that was turned over to the central Soviet...15 Ibid., 9. 16 The Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, Inc., The Voice of the Ukrainian American Community, “ Holodomor - the Famine Genocide in

SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, S.

2012-04-01

Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed decisions. The deliverable was compiled with contributions from experts on landslides, monitoring technologies, remote sensing, and social researchers from 16 European institutions. The deliverable addresses one of the main objectives of the SafeLand project, namely to merge experience and expert judgment and create synergies on European level towards guidelines for early warning and to make these results available to end-users and local stakeholders.

Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

2017-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory reached 156, 64, and 37, respectively. In 2016, only three landslides were recorded even though the city experienced a couple of heavy rainfall events during the rainy season. The system performance test results show good agreement with the observation results for the past rainfall events. It seems that the system can also provide with reliable warning information for the future rainfall events.

Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

2010-05-01

The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will try to give some clues for discussion on the deficiencies of the existing tsunami early warning concepts as regards the warning to the areas which are found close to the tsunami source, and on the strategies that should be followed in the near future in order to make significant progress in the protection and safeguarding of local communities.

Patient attitudes towards remote continuous vital signs monitoring on general surgery wards: An interview study.

PubMed

Downey, C L; Brown, J M; Jayne, D G; Randell, R

2018-06-01

Vital signs monitoring is used to identify deteriorating patients in hospital. The most common tool for vital signs monitoring is an early warning score, although emerging technologies allow for remote, continuous patient monitoring. A number of reviews have examined the impact of continuous monitoring on patient outcomes, but little is known about the patient experience. This study aims to discover what patients think of monitoring in hospital, with a particular emphasis on intermittent early warning scores versus remote continuous monitoring, in order to inform future implementations of continuous monitoring technology. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 12 surgical inpatients as part of a study testing a remote continuous monitoring device. All patients were monitored with both an early warning score and the new device. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Patients can see the value in remote, continuous monitoring, particularly overnight. However, patients appreciate the face-to-face aspect of early warning score monitoring as it allows for reassurance, social interaction, and gives them further opportunity to ask questions about their medical care. Early warning score systems are widely used to facilitate detection of the deteriorating patient. Continuous monitoring technologies may provide added reassurance. However, patients value personal contact with their healthcare professionals and remote monitoring should not replace this. We suggest that remote monitoring is best introduced in a phased manner, and initially as an adjunct to usual care, with careful consideration of the patient experience throughout. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community proteomics provides functional insight into polyhydroxyalkanoate production by a mixed microbial culture cultivated on fermented dairy manure.

PubMed

Hanson, Andrea J; Guho, Nicholas M; Paszczynski, Andrzej J; Coats, Erik R

2016-09-01

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are bio-based, biodegradable polyesters that can be produced from organic-rich waste streams using mixed microbial cultures (MMCs). To maximize PHA production, MMCs are enriched for bacteria with a high polymer storage capacity through the application of aerobic dynamic feeding (ADF) in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR), which consequently induces a feast-famine metabolic response. Though the feast-famine response is generally understood empirically at a macro-level, the molecular level is less refined. The objective of this study was to investigate the microbial community composition and proteome profile of an enriched MMC cultivated on fermented dairy manure. The enriched MMC exhibited a feast-famine response and was capable of producing up to 40 % (wt. basis) PHA in a fed-batch reactor. High-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing revealed a microbial community dominated by Meganema, a known PHA-producing genus not often observed in high abundance in enrichment SBRs. The application of the proteomic methods two-dimensional electrophoresis and LC-MS/MS revealed PHA synthesis, energy generation, and protein synthesis prominently occurring during the feast phase, corroborating bulk solution variable observations and theoretical expectations. During the famine phase, nutrient transport, acyl-CoA metabolism, additional energy generation, and housekeeping functions were more pronounced, informing previously under-determined MMC functionality under famine conditions. During fed-batch PHA production, acetyl-CoA acetyltransferase and PHA granule-bound phasin proteins were in increased abundance relative to the SBR, supporting the higher PHA content observed. Collectively, the results provide unique microbial community structural and functional insight into feast-famine PHA production from waste feedstocks using MMCs.

Functional Analyses of the Crohn's Disease Risk Gene LACC1.

PubMed

Assadi, Ghazaleh; Vesterlund, Liselotte; Bonfiglio, Ferdinando; Mazzurana, Luca; Cordeddu, Lina; Schepis, Danika; Mjösberg, Jenny; Ruhrmann, Sabrina; Fabbri, Alessia; Vukojevic, Vladana; Percipalle, Piergiorgio; Salomons, Florian A; Laurencikiene, Jurga; Törkvist, Leif; Halfvarson, Jonas; D'Amato, Mauro

2016-01-01

Genetic variation in the Laccase (multicopper oxidoreductase) domain-containing 1 (LACC1) gene has been shown to affect the risk of Crohn's disease, leprosy and, more recently, ulcerative colitis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis. LACC1 function appears to promote fatty-acid oxidation, with concomitant inflammasome activation, reactive oxygen species production, and anti-bacterial responses in macrophages. We sought to contribute to elucidating LACC1 biological function by extensive characterization of its expression in human tissues and cells, and through preliminary analyses of the regulatory mechanisms driving such expression. We implemented Western blot, quantitative real-time PCR, immunofluorescence microscopy, and flow cytometry analyses to investigate fatty acid metabolism-immune nexus (FAMIN; the LACC1 encoded protein) expression in subcellular compartments, cell lines and relevant human tissues. Gene-set enrichment analyses were performed to initially investigate modulatory mechanisms of LACC1 expression. A small-interference RNA knockdown in vitro model system was used to study the effect of FAMIN depletion on peroxisome function. FAMIN expression was detected in macrophage-differentiated THP-1 cells and several human tissues, being highest in neutrophils, monocytes/macrophages, myeloid and plasmacytoid dendritic cells among peripheral blood cells. Subcellular co-localization was exclusively confined to peroxisomes, with some additional positivity for organelle endomembrane structures. LACC1 co-expression signatures were enriched for genes involved in peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) signaling pathways, and PPAR ligands downregulated FAMIN expression in in vitro model systems. FAMIN is a peroxisome-associated protein with primary role(s) in macrophages and other immune cells, where its metabolic functions may be modulated by PPAR signaling events. However, the precise molecular mechanisms through which FAMIN exerts its biological effects in immune cells remain to be elucidated.

Fast “Feast/Famine” Cycles for Studying Microbial Physiology Under Dynamic Conditions: A Case Study with Saccharomyces cerevisiae

PubMed Central

Suarez-Mendez, Camilo A.; Sousa, Andre; Heijnen, Joseph J.; Wahl, Aljoscha

2014-01-01

Microorganisms are constantly exposed to rapidly changing conditions, under natural as well as industrial production scale environments, especially due to large-scale substrate mixing limitations. In this work, we present an experimental approach based on a dynamic feast/famine regime (400 s) that leads to repetitive cycles with moderate changes in substrate availability in an aerobic glucose cultivation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. After a few cycles, the feast/famine produced a stable and repetitive pattern with a reproducible metabolic response in time, thus providing a robust platform for studying the microorganism’s physiology under dynamic conditions. We found that the biomass yield was slightly reduced (−5%) under the feast/famine regime, while the averaged substrate and oxygen consumption as well as the carbon dioxide production rates were comparable. The dynamic response of the intracellular metabolites showed specific differences in comparison to other dynamic experiments (especially stimulus-response experiments, SRE). Remarkably, the frequently reported ATP paradox observed in single pulse experiments was not present during the repetitive perturbations applied here. We found that intracellular dynamic accumulations led to an uncoupling of the substrate uptake rate (up to 9-fold change at 20 s.) Moreover, the dynamic profiles of the intracellular metabolites obtained with the feast/famine suggest the presence of regulatory mechanisms that resulted in a delayed response. With the feast famine setup many cellular states can be measured at high frequency given the feature of reproducible cycles. The feast/famine regime is thus a versatile platform for systems biology approaches, which can help us to identify and investigate metabolite regulations under realistic conditions (e.g., large-scale bioreactors or natural environments). PMID:24957030

Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

2015-01-01

The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

Treesearch

Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

2014-01-01

Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

On Track for Success: The Use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…

Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knowles, Jared E.

2015-01-01

The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

Detection of the Early Warning Signs of Cancer by Community Pharmacists: An Evaluation of Training on Professional Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benfield, William R.; And Others

1977-01-01

In a study of 702 pharmacists in 211 communities, an effort was made to determine the effect of a unit of education on the community pharmacist's ability and/or tendency to detect the early warning signs of cancer when manifested by patrons. The success of such a program is shown. (LBH)

Four Signs Your District Is Ready for an Early Warning System. A Discussion Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regional Educational Laboratory Pacific, 2016

2016-01-01

Although high school graduation rates continue to rise in the United States, reaching 81 percent in the 2012-2013 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015), dropout remains a pervasive issue for education systems across the nation. In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS), which utilize administrative data to identify students at risk…

Toward a national early warning system for forest disturbances using remotely sensed canopy phenology

Treesearch

William W. Hargrove; Joseph P. Spruce; Gerald E. Gasser; Forrest M. Hoffman

2009-01-01

Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation above. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system...

Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

Treesearch

F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

2010-01-01

We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.

2016-06-01

Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.

Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

2016-01-01

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

Tipping point analysis of seismological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livina, Valerie N.; Tolkova, Elena

2014-05-01

We apply the tipping point toolbox [1-7] to study sensor data of pressure variations and vertical velocity of the sea floor after two seismic events: 21 October 2010, M6.9, D10km (California) and 11 March 2011, M9.0, D30km (Japan). One type of datasets was measured by nano-resolution pressure sensor [8], while the other, for comparison, by a co-located ocean bottom seismometer. Both sensors registered the seismic wave, and we investigated the early warning and detection signals of the wave arrival for possible application with a remote and cabled tsunami warning detector network (NOAA DART system and Japan Trench Tsunami Observation System). We study the early warning and detection signals of the wave arrival using methodology that combines degenerate fingerprinting and potential analysis techniques for anticipation, detection and forecast of tipping points in a dynamical system. Degenerate fingerprinting indicator is a dynamically derived lag-1 autocorrelation, ACF (or, alternatively, short-range scaling exponent of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA [1]), which shows short-term memory in a series. When such values rise monotonically, this indicates an upcoming transition or bifurcation in a series and can be used for early warning signals analysis. The potential analysis detects a transition or bifurcation in a series at the time when it happens, which is illustrated in a special contour plot mapping the potential dynamics of the system [2-6]. The methodology has been extensively tested on artificial data and on various geophysical, ecological and industrial sensor datasets [2-5,7], and proved to be applicable to trajectories of dynamical systems of arbitrary origin [9]. In this seismological application, we have obtained early warning signals in the described series using ACF- and DFA-indicators and detected the Rayleigh wave arrival in the potential contour plots. In the case of the event in 2010, the early warning signal starts appearing about 2 min before the first peak of the Rayleigh train is detected by the sensor, whereas in the case of event of 2011, the early warning signal appears closer to the peak arrival, within 1 min. The different strength of early warning signals of the Rayleigh trains may be due to different depths of the events (10 and 30 km), which we plan to test in further analysis. References: [1] Livina and Lenton, GRL 2007; [2] Livina et al, Climate of the Past 2010; [3] Livina et al, Climate Dynamics 2011; [4] Livina et al, Physica A 2012; [5] Livina and Lenton, Cryosphere 2013; [6] Livina et al, Physica A 2013; [7] Livina et al, Journal of Civil Structural Health Monitoring, in press; [8] Tolkova and Schaad, arXiv:1401.0096v1; [9] Vaz Martins et al, PRE 2010.

Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

2016-04-01

Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The evaluation of time associated with the occurrence of landslide events (LE) in relation to the occurrence of warning events (WE) in their respective classes is a fundamental step to determine the duration matrix elements. On the other hand the classification of LEs and WEs establishes the structure of the duration matrix. Indeed, the number of rows and columns of the matrix is equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. Thus the matrix is not expressed as a 2x2 contingency and LEs and WEs are not expressed as dichotomous variables. The final phase of the method is the evaluation of the duration matrix based on a set of performance criteria assigning a performance meaning to the element of the matrix. To this aim different criteria can be defined, for instance employing an alert classification scheme derived from 2x2 contingency tables or assigning a colour code to the elements of the matrix in relation to their grade of correctness. Finally, performance indicators can be derived from the performance criteria to quantify successes and errors of the early warning models. EDuMaP has been already applied to different real case studies, highlighting the adaptability of the method to analyse the performance of structurally different ReLEWSs.

Capturing early signs of deterioration: the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score and its value in the Rapid Response System.

PubMed

Douw, Gooske; Huisman-de Waal, Getty; van Zanten, Arthur R H; van der Hoeven, Johannes G; Schoonhoven, Lisette

2017-09-01

To determine the predictive value of individual and combined dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators at various Early Warning Score levels, differentiating between Early Warning Scores reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and Early Warning Score levels not reaching this point. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score comprises nine indicators underlying nurses' 'worry' about a patient's condition. All indicators independently show significant association with unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality. Prediction of this outcome improved by adding the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators to an Early Warning Score based on vital signs. An observational cohort study was conducted on three surgical wards in a tertiary university-affiliated teaching hospital. Included were surgical, native-speaking, adult patients. Nurses scored presence of 'worry' and/or dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators every shift or when worried. Vital signs were measured according to the prevailing protocol. Unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality was the composite endpoint. Percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators were calculated at various Early Warning Score levels in control and event groups. Entering all dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators in a multiple logistic regression analysis, we calculated a weighted score and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value and negative predicted value for each possible total score. In 3522 patients, 102 (2·9%) had an unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admissions (n = 97) or unexpected mortality (n = 5). Patients with such events and only slightly changed vital signs had significantly higher percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators expressed than patients in the control group. Increasing number of dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators showed higher positive predictive values. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators alert in an early stage of deterioration, before reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and can improve interdisciplinary communication on surgical wards during regular rounds, and when calling for assistance. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score structures communication and recording of signs known to be associated with a decline in a patient's condition and can empower nurses to call assistance on the 'worry' criterion in an early stage of deterioration. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

PubMed Central

Hanks, Thomas C.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

From golden hills to sycamore trees: pastoral homelands and ethnic identity in Irish immigrant fiction, 1860-75.

PubMed

Corporaal, Marguérite

2010-01-01

The prose fiction that remembers the trials of starvation and eviction of the Great Famine (1845-50) often juxtaposes representations of blasted, infertile land with images of a green, idyllic Erin. Through a discussion of Mary Anne Sadlier's Bessy Conway (1861), Elizabeth Hely Walshe's Golden Hills: A Tale of the Irish Famine (1865) and John McElgun's Annie Reilly (1873), this article reveals that immigrant writers of the Famine generation often negotiate depictions of Famine-stricken wasteland with evocations of a pastoral homeland. In the case of the two Catholic novels, Bessy Conway and Annie Reilly, the pastoral becomes a point of ethnic identification through which the immigrants can recollect and reconstruct a sense of Irishness in exile. By contrast, Golden Hills, which focuses on the Anglo-Irish ascendancy, does not lament the mass exodus of afflicted Irish: the novel rather envisions emigration as a way to regenerate Ireland as locus amoenus.

Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

Research on Early Warning of Chinese Food Safety Based on Social Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yonghuan; Niu, Wenyuan; Li, Qianqian

Based on social physics, this paper designs the index system of food safety, builds early warning model of food safety, calculates the degree of food safety, and assesses the state of early warning of 2007 in China. The result shows the degree of food safety is near 0.7 in securer state, belonging to slight emergency. It is much lower in eastern areas of developed regions, belonging to insecure state in the mass. That the food safety is ensured in major grain producing areas, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang is the prerequisite of realizing the food safety of China. The result also shows four significant indices, grain production capacity, grain circulation order, grain demand and grain supply, which are important indicatio to control food safety.

Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.

2017-12-01

Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

2012-12-01

We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http://alomax.net/pub_list.html): Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Tsunami early warning within 5 minutes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169, nnn-nnn, doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0512-6. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009b), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09306, doi:10.1029/2009GL037223. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009a), Mwpd: A Duration-Amplitude Procedure for Rapid Determination of Earthquake Magnitude and Tsunamigenic Potential from P Waveforms, Geophys. J. Int.,176, 200-214, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03974.x

Genome-scale metabolic modeling to provide insight into the production of storage compounds during feast-famine cycles of activated sludge.

PubMed

Tajparast, Mohammad; Frigon, Dominic

2013-01-01

Studying storage metabolism during feast-famine cycles of activated sludge treatment systems provides profound insight in terms of both operational issues (e.g., foaming and bulking) and process optimization for the production of value added by-products (e.g., bioplastics). We examined the storage metabolism (including poly-β-hydroxybutyrate [PHB], glycogen, and triacylglycerols [TAGs]) during feast-famine cycles using two genome-scale metabolic models: Rhodococcus jostii RHA1 (iMT1174) and Escherichia coli K-12 (iAF1260) for growth on glucose, acetate, and succinate. The goal was to develop the proper objective function (OF) for the prediction of the main storage compound produced in activated sludge for given feast-famine cycle conditions. For the flux balance analysis, combinations of three OFs were tested. For all of them, the main OF was to maximize growth rates. Two additional sub-OFs were used: (1) minimization of biochemical fluxes, and (2) minimization of metabolic adjustments (MoMA) between the feast and famine periods. All (sub-)OFs predicted identical substrate-storage associations for the feast-famine growth of the above-mentioned metabolic models on a given substrate when glucose and acetate were set as sole carbon sources (i.e., glucose-glycogen and acetate-PHB), in agreement with experimental observations. However, in the case of succinate as substrate, the predictions depended on the network structure of the metabolic models such that the E. coli model predicted glycogen accumulation and the R. jostii model predicted PHB accumulation. While the accumulation of both PHB and glycogen was observed experimentally, PHB showed higher dynamics during an activated sludge feast-famine growth cycle with succinate as substrate. These results suggest that new modeling insights between metabolic predictions and population ecology will be necessary to properly predict metabolisms likely to emerge within the niches of activated sludge communities. Nonetheless, we believe that the development of this approach will help guide the optimization of the production of storage compounds as valuable by-products of wastewater treatment.

Maternal exposure to the Dutch Famine before conception and during pregnancy: quality of life and depressive symptoms in adult offspring

PubMed Central

Stein, Aryeh D.; Pierik, Frank H.; Verrips, G.H.W.; Susser, Ezra S.; Lumey, L. H.

2013-01-01

Background Gestational exposure to famine has been associated with several chronic diseases in adulthood, but few studies in humans have related prenatal famine exposure to health-related quality of life. We used the circumstances of the Dutch Famine of 1944-1945 (during which official rations were =900 kcal/day for 24 weeks) to assess whether exposure to famine prior to conception or at specified stages of pregnancy was related to self-reported health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms in adulthood. Methods We studied 923 individuals including persons born in western Holland between January 1945 and March 1946, persons born in the same 3 institutions in 1943 and 1947 and same-sex siblings of persons in series 1 or 2. Between 2003 and 2005 (mean age 59 y), we assessed self-reported quality of life with the Short Form 36 questionnaire and derived mental and physical component scores. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale. Results Mean mental and physical component scores were 52.4 (SD = 9.4) and 48.9 (9.0), respectively. The mean depression score was 11.6 (7.4). Age-, sex- and schooling-adjusted estimates for mutually adjusted exposures were -2.48 for the mental component score with exposure before conception (95% confidence interval = -4.46 to 0.50) and 0.07 with exposure during pregnancy (-1.15 to 1.29). Adjusted estimates for the physical component score were 1.26 with exposure before conception (-0.67 to 3.19) and -0.73 with exposure during pregnancy (1.94 to 0.48). Adjusted estimates for the depression score were 2.07 with exposure before conception (0.60 to 3.54) and 0.96 with exposure during pregnancy (0.09 to 1.88). There was no evidence of heterogeneity of effects by specific periods of pregnancy exposed to famine. Conclusions A mother's exposure to famine prior to conception of her offspring was associated with lower self-reported measures of mental health and quality of life in her adult offspring. PMID:19752733

Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

2017-04-01

Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing scientific knowledge, capacity building and international cooperation.

The design of composite monitoring scheme for multilevel information in crop early diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan; Meng, Qinglong; Shang, Jing

2018-02-01

It is difficult to monitor and predict the crops early diseases in that the crop disease monitoring is usually monitored by visible light images and the availabilities in early warning are poor at present. The features of common nondestructive testing technology applied to the crop diseases were analyzed in this paper. Based on the changeable characteristics of the virus from the incubation period to the onset period of crop activities, the multilevel composite information monitoring scheme were designed by applying infrared thermal imaging, visible near infrared hyperspectral imaging, micro-imaging technology to the monitoring of multilevel information of crop disease infection comprehensively. The early warning process and key monitoring parameters of compound monitoring scheme are given by taking the temperature, color, structure and texture of crops as the key monitoring characteristics of disease. With overcoming the deficiency that the conventional monitoring scheme is only suitable for the observation of diseases with naked eyes, the monitoring and early warning of the incubation and early onset of the infection crops can be realized by the composite monitoring program as mentioned in this paper.

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available software repository provided by CEGIT. FOSSLAB serves as a platform for the development of FOSS projects in geospatial context, allowing to save, advance and reuse results achieved in previous and on-going project activities and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. FOSSLABs potential to preserve and advance existing best practices for reuse in new scenarios is documented by a first case study: For TEWS education and public outreach a comprehensive approach to generate high resolution globe maps was compiled using GRASS GIS and the POV-Ray rendering software. The task resulted in the merging of isolated technical know-how into publicly available best practices, which had been previously maintained in disparate GIS- and rendering communities. Beyond the scope of TRIDEC, FOSSLAB constitutes an umbrella encompassing several geoinformatics-related activities, such as the documentation of Best Practices for experiences and results while working with Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geomatics, and future spatial processing on Computation Clusters and in Cloud Computing.

The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Lindstrom, D P; Berhanu, B

1999-05-01

We examine recent fertility trends in Ethiopia for evidence of short- and long-term responses to famine, political events, and economic decline. We use retrospective data on children ever born from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey to estimate trends in annual marital conception probabilities, controlling for women's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The results of our analysis provide evidence of significant short-term declines in conception probabilities during years of famine and major political and economic upheaval. In the longer term, marital fertility in both urban and rural areas declined in the 1980s after increasing moderately in the 1970s.

Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

2008-05-01

PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and regularly updated underpinning science and be tied to formal effectiveness evaluation, which is fed back into system improvements. The model presented emphasises human considerations, the development of which arguably require even more effort than the hardware components of early warning systems.

Red warning for air pollution in China: Exploring residents' perceptions of the first two red warnings in Beijing.

PubMed

Zhao, Hanping; Wang, Fangping; Niu, Chence; Wang, Han; Zhang, Xiaoxue

2018-02-01

Air pollution early warnings have been issued in China to mitigate the effects of high pollution days. Public perceptions and views about early warning signals can affect individual behaviors and play a major role in the public's response to air pollution risks. This study examined public attitudes and responses to the first two red warnings for air pollution in Beijing in 2015. An online survey was sent out, and 664 respondents (response rate = 90%) provided their perspectives on the red warnings. Descriptive statistics, sign tests and binary logit models were used to analyze the data. More than half of the respondents reported that their life and work were affected by the red warning in December 2015. In contrast to their perceptions about the second red warning period, the public thought that the first red warning should have been issued earlier and that the number of consecutive days of warnings should have been reduced. The respondents also recommended that instead of reducing the number of red warnings, the red warning emergency measures should be adjusted. Specifically, the public preferred the installation of air purifiers in schools rather than closing schools and strengthening road flushing and dust pollution controls over restrictions on driving. Data analyses were conducted to examine the affected groups and different groups' perceptions of the necessity of implementing emergency measures. The results indicated that men and more educated respondents were more likely to be affected by driving limitations, and men were less supportive of these limitations. The age and education of respondents were significantly negatively associated with the opinion that schools should be closed, whereas wealthier respondents were more supportive of school closings. The finding of a negative attitude among the public toward the first two red warnings may be used to help local governments modify protective measures and pollution mitigation initiatives to increase acceptance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

2012-12-01

A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will be responsible for reporting and informing the early warning. Therefore, a community empowerment and encouragement program through public education was conducted. Strategy and approach for this program was formulated based on the socio-engineering investigation. Finally, the results of technical and social engineering investigations, have been elaborated to further enhance the performance of expert system of the Smart Grid, in order to completely establish this system as an innovative and effective tool for the landslide monitoring and early warning in tropical-developing country.

Evaluation of Intersection Collision Warning Systems in Minnesota

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-10-01

The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) is investing significant resources in intersection collision warning systems (ICWS) based on early indications of effectiveness. However, the effectiveness is not well documented, and negative change...

Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

2015-04-01

Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly increases the value of available information and the level of knowledge of forecasters and disaster managers. Different data, forecast and monitoring products, which are generated by different national and international institution and organizations, can be visualized and processed in real-time within the platform. DEWETRA is a web application ensuring the capillary distribution of information among institutions. The system is used as an infrastructure for exchanging and sharing data, procedures, models and expertise among the Sector of Emergency Management (SEM), the Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) and the Serbian Public Water Companies (PWCs): Serbia Waters, Vojvodina Waters and Belgrade Waters.

National High School Center Early Warning System Tool v2.0: Technical Manual

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National High School Center, 2011

2011-01-01

The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…

Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

bandwidth of about 1.2 MHz. hr ht RX TX z x α α α α αr αt y R30 R10 R31 R11 vRx vTx P Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning...B V R == (12) where VRX is the receiver velocity and BA is the Doppler chirp bandwidth defined by equation (5). The time necessary to obtain

Does the Computer-Assisted Remedial Mathematics Program at Kearny High School Lead to Improved Scores on the N.J. Early Warning Test?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schalago-Schirm, Cynthia

Eighth-grade students in New Jersey take the Early Warning Test (EWT), which involves reading, writing, and mathematics. Students with EWT scores below the state level of competency take a remedial mathematics course that provides students with computer-assisted instruction (2 days per week) as well as regular classroom instruction (3 days per…

Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

Response Characteristics of an Aquatic Biomonitor Used for Rapid Toxicity Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-15

for drinking water protection. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES biological early warning system; Lepomis macrochirus; bluegill; aquatic toxicity...Fort Detrick, MD 21702-5010, USA Key words: biomonitor; biological early warning system; Lepomis macrochirus; bluegill; aquatic toxicity; water ...narcosis are most likely to cause rapid aquatic biomonitor depth related to variations in water quality (primarily responses. Other modes of action may

Understanding the High School Proficiency Test and the Early Warning Test in Relation to HCCC Enrollment Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taffy, Fred

The Grade 11 High School Proficiency Test (HSPT) and the New Jersey Early Warning Test (EWT) are two key standardized tests that indicate academic ability of county high school graduates which colleges will need to address. While HSPT scores for county high school districts reflect a range of competency in reading, math, and writing, the majority…

Delivery of State-Provided Predictive Analytics to Schools: Wisconsin's DEWS and the Proposed EWIMS Dashboard. WCER Working Paper No. 2016-3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clune, Bill; Knowles, Jared

2016-01-01

Since 2012, the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) has maintained a statewide predictive analytics system providing schools with an early warning in middle grades of students at risk for not completing high school. DPI is considering extending and enhancing this system, known as the Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS). The proposed…

Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-12-01

AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

Looking beyond the destruction of the GLOF-Early Warning System of the Lake 513 in the Peruvian Andes by the local rural population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christine, Jurt; Vicuña, Luis; Dulce Burga, María; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger

2017-04-01

The news about the destruction of the early warning system of the glacial Lake 513 at the headwaters of the Chucchún catchment in Peru's Cordillera Blanca left many people perplexed. The early warning system was installed after around 40 years of glacier hazard management in the region. It was developed within a project that is widely considered as particularly successful with a close cooperation of several Peruvian institutions, the local municipality, the community and Swiss scientists. From a risk reduction point of view, the early warning system is a critical factor and its destruction by local people themselves is hardly comprehensible. Three month of fieldwork on site in the local communities of the Chucchún catchment during and after the installation of the system, including semi-structured interviews, group discussions and participatory observations as well the participation in the project allowed us to get deeper insights into the context and background of what has occurred. Here, we approach the destruction of the early warning system by analyzing different perspectives on encounters between different actors involved - local groups, scientists from Peru and Switzerland, technical staff, NGO in the field of development, representatives of governmental institutions. Such encounters between the different actors during the practice of science (e.g. doing fieldwork) or during the installation of the early warning system (as for instance in meetings on site) are crucial for overcoming gaps between scientific and local knowledge as well as between knowledge and practice. This led to new insights into the discussion of the case of destruction in Chucchún. Mutual perceptions among the groups, self-perceptions and perceptions of both visible and invisible risks shape the discourses about risks and measures in specific situations of encounters during the project. Particularly striking, however, are different perspectives on encounters in the past between representatives of groups which are now involved in the project, and how these encounters are analyzed in the actual in terms of the present and future.

Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

PubMed

Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

2015-09-04

The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of a future early warning and monitoring system. We conclude that a long-term evaluation of the presented methods in situ using real-time prototypes is the most important next step to transfer the developed methods into practical implementation.

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have explicit foci on (1) integrating physical and social vulnerability indicators across timescales, (2) analytical capacity to generate local scenarios of risk using both analogs and projections, (3) the communication of risk-based information, and (4) the support and governance of a collaborative framework for early warning structures across spatial scales.

Coronal Mass Ejection early-warning mission by solar-photon sailcraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vulpetti, Giovanni; Circi, Christian; Pino, Tommaso

2017-11-01

A preliminary investigation of the early warning of solar storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection has been carried out. A long warning time could be obtained with a sailcraft synchronous with the Earth-Moon barycenter, and stationed well below the L1 point. In this paper, the theory of heliocentric synchronous sailcraft is set up, its perturbed orbit is analyzed, and a potential solution capable of providing an annual synchrony is carried out. A simple analysis of the response from a low-mass electrochromic actuator for the realization of station-keeping attitude maneuvers is put forwards, and an example of propellantless re-orientation maneuver is studied.

A Brief History of the Potato in Ireland.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Social Education, 2000

2000-01-01

Provides historical information on the potato in Ireland focusing on how the potato arrived in Ireland and the advantages and disadvantages of the potato as a food crop. Discusses the Irish potato famine in Ireland, effects of the famine, and the government's laissez-faire response. Includes a list of questions. (CMK)

Libraries and Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Findley, Paul

These keynote remarks review some of the origins of Title XII of the Foreign Assistance Act. This legislation, whose goal is to conquer famine and malnutrition worldwide, was signed into law by President Ford in 1975. Senator Hubert Humphrey's address at the 1977 Famine Prevention Symposium in Washington, DC, is recounted with emphasis on his…

Database Marketplace 2010: Feast and Famine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenopir, Carol; Baker, Gayle; Grogg, Jill

2010-01-01

With fancy new software developments and growth in both the richness of content and delivery options for information resources, the Database Marketplace 2010 is a feast for buyers. Unfortunately, institutional budget cuts may force more of a famine mentality--with belt-tightening for most, and only purchases that are life-sustaining being served…

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

2013-10-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

2018-01-01

Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

2017-04-01

An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

[Assessment and early warning of land ecological security in rapidly urbanizing coastal area: A case study of Caofeidian new district, Hebei, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Chen, Ying; Wang, Shu-tao; Men, Ming-xin; Xu, Hao

2015-08-01

Assessment and early warning of land ecological security (LES) in rapidly urbanizing coastal area is an important issue to ensure sustainable land use and effective maintenance of land ecological security. In this study, an index system for the land ecological security of Caofeidian new district was established based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) model. Initial assessment units of 1 km x 1 km created with the remote sensing data and GIS methods were spatially interpolated to a fine pixel size of 30 m x 30 m, which were combined with the early warning method (using classification tree method) to evaluate the land ecological security of Caofeidian in 2005 and 2013. The early warning level was classed into four categories: security with degradation potential, sub-security with slow degradation, sub-security with rapid degradation, and insecurity. Result indicated that, from 2005 to 2013, the average LES of Caofeidian dropped from 0.55 to 0.52, indicating a degradation of land ecological security from medium security level to medium-low security level. The areas at the levels of insecurity with rapid degradation were mainly located in the rapid urbanization areas, illustrating that rapid expansion of urban construction land was the key factor to the deterioration of the regional land ecological security. Industrial District, Shilihai town and Nanpu saltern, in which the lands at the levels of insecurity and sub-security with rapid degradation or slow degradation accounted for 58.3%, 98.9% and 81.2% of their respective districts, were at the stage of high early warning. Thus, land ecological security regulation for these districts should be strengthened in near future. The study could provide a reference for land use planning and ecological protection of Caofeidian new district.

Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St Cyr, O. C.; Posner, A.; Burkepile, J. T.

2017-01-01

We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

2014-05-01

Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cressman, Keith

2013-01-01

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

2017-12-01

Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

An Updated Decision Support Interface: A Tool for Remote Monitoring of Crop Growing Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husak, G. J.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C. C.; Landsfeld, M. F.

2014-12-01

Remote sensing of agroclimatological variables to monitor food production conditions is a critical component of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network portfolio of tools for assessing food security in the developing world. The Decision Support Interface (DSI) seeks to integrate a number of remotely sensed and modeled variables to create a single, simplified portal for analysis of crop growing conditions. The DSI has been reformulated to incorporate more variables and give the user more freedom in exploring the available data. This refinement seeks to transition the DSI from a "first glance" agroclimatic indicator to one better suited for the differentiation of drought events. The DSI performs analysis of variables over primary agricultural zones at the first sub-national administrative level. It uses the spatially averaged rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to identify potential hazards to food security. Presenting this information in a web-based client gives food security analysts and decision makers a lightweight portal for information on crop growing conditions in the region. The crop zones used for the aggregation contain timing information which is critical to the DSI presentation. Rainfall and ETa are accumulated from different points in the crop phenology to identify season-long deficits in rainfall or transpiration that adversely affect the crop-growing conditions. Furthermore, the NDVI and WRSI serve as their own seasonal accumulated measures of growing conditions by capturing vegetation vigor or actual evapotranspiration deficits. The DSI is currently active for major growing regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with intention of expanding to other areas over the coming years.

Generating Southern Africa Precipitation Forecast Using the FEWS Engine, a New Application for the Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landsfeld, M. F.; Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; Husak, G. J.; Friedrichs, M.; Funk, C. C.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Verdin, J. P.

2016-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) focuses on food insecurity in developing nations and provides objective, evidence-based analysis to help government decision-makers and relief agencies plan for and respond to humanitarian emergencies. The network of FEWS NET analysts and scientists require flexible, interactive tools to aid in their monitoring and research efforts. Because they often work in bandwidth-limited regions, lightweight Internet tools and services that bypass the need for downloading massive datasets are preferred for their work. To support food security analysis FEWS NET developed a custom interface for the Google Earth Engine (GEE). GEE is a platform developed by Google to support scientific analysis of environmental data in their cloud computing environment. This platform allows scientists and independent researchers to mine massive collections of environmental data, leveraging Google's vast computational resources for purposes of detecting changes and monitoring the Earth's surface and climate. GEE hosts an enormous amount of satellite imagery and climate archives, one of which is the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset (CHIRPS). CHIRPS precipitation dataset is a key input for FEWS NET monitoring and forecasting efforts. In this talk we introduce the FEWS Engine interface. We present an application that highlights the utility of FEWS Engine for forecasting the upcoming seasonal precipitation of southern Africa. Specifically, the current state of ENSO is assessed and used to identify similar historical seasons. The FEWS Engine compositing tool is used to examine rainfall and other environmental data for these analog seasons. The application illustrates the unique benefits of using FEWS Engine for on-the-fly food security scenario development.

Using the SPEI to Estimate Food Production in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husak, G. J.; Hobbins, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.

2015-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors critical environmental variables that impact food production in developing countries. Due to a sparse network of observations in the developing world, many of these variables are estimated using remotely sensed data. As scientists develop new techniques to leverage available observations and remotely sensed information there are opportunities to create products that identify the environmental conditions that stress agriculture and reduce food production. FEWS NET pioneered the development of the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with stations (CHIRPS) dataset, to estimate precipitation and monitor growing conditions throughout the world. These data are used to drive land surface models, hydrologic models and basic crop models among others. A new dataset estimating the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) has been developed using inputs from the ERA-Interim GCM. This ET0 dataset stretches back to 1981, allowing for a long-term record, stretching many seasons and drought events. Combining the CHIRPS data to estimate water availability and the ET0 data to estimate evaporative demand, one can estimate the approximate water gap (surplus or deficit) over a specific time period. Normalizing this difference creates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which presents these gaps in comparison to the historical record for a specific location and accumulation period. In this study we evaluate the SPEI as a tool to estimate crop yields for different regions of Kenya. Identifying the critical time of analysis for the SPEI is the first step in building a relationship between the water gap and food production. Once this critical period is identified, we look at the predictability of food production using the SPEI, and assess the utility of it for monitoring food security, with the goal of incorporating the SPEI in the standard monitoring suite of FEWS NET tools.

Earth observation based assessment of the water production and water consumption of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M.; Karimi, Poolad; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Duan, Zheng; Senay, Gabriel; Muthuwatte, Lal; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The increasing competition for water resources requires a better understanding of flows, fluxes, stocks, and the services and benefits related to water consumption. This paper explains how public domain Earth Observation data based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Second Generation Meteosat (MSG), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and various altimeter measurements can be used to estimate net water production (rainfall (P) > evapotranspiration (ET)) and net water consumption (ET > P) of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems. Rainfall data from TRMM and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) RainFall Estimates (RFE) products were used in conjunction with actual evapotranspiration from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) and ETLook models. Water flows laterally between net water production and net water consumption areas as a result of runoff and withdrawals. This lateral flow between the 15 sub-basins of the Nile was estimated, and partitioned into stream flow and non-stream flow using the discharge data. A series of essential water metrics necessary for successful integrated water management are explained and computed. Net water withdrawal estimates (natural and humanly instigated) were assumed to be the difference between net rainfall (Pnet) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) and some first estimates of withdrawals—without flow meters—are provided. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems withdraw large volumes of groundwater, which exceed water withdrawals for the irrigation sector. There is a strong need for the development of more open-access Earth Observation databases, especially for information related to actual ET. The fluxes, flows and storage changes presented form the basis for a global framework to describe monthly and annual water accounts in ungauged river basins.

Comparison of Agricultural Drought Indicators over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husak, G. J.; Turner, W.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors critical environmental variables that impact food production in developing countries, including over 30 countries in Africa. Much of this work focuses on the identification of agricultural drought using remotely sensed and modeled estimates of conditions. These variables estimate precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, water availability for crops and soil moisture - among others - at a critical time, or accumulated over intervals within the season. Frequently, these variables are used in a "convergence of evidence" approach to identify the location and severity of agricultural drought over a region. While much work has gone into identifying and calculating these key indicators, little attention has been given to the relationships between these variables. This work explores the relationship between four key agricultural drought indicators over West Africa to determine the extent to which they are providing unique information and also to expose where certain variables may not be adding independent information to the identification of agricultural drought and the potential for food insecurity. These variables investigated in this study are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) and modeled soil moisture (SM) from the FEWSNET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). We look at 35 years of data (1982-2016) over West Africa and identify the primary growing season for the region, then compare the four variables above during this prime season. Because the computational costs of calculating these different indicators varies, we seek to identify where products that are less cost/data intensive adequately capture the same information as the more intensive indicators. The outcome highlights where particular products are most useful for the identification of agricultural drought over the region.

Upper Blue Nile basin water budget from a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Hahn Chul; Getirana, Augusto; Policelli, Frederick; McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Kumar, Sujay; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-12-01

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

PubMed

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica

2016-10-01

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seismic instrumentation plan for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.

2014-01-01

The installation of new seismic stations is only the first part of building a volcanic early warning capability for seismicity in the State of Hawaii. Additional personnel will likely be required to study the volcanic processes at work under each volcano, analyze the current seismic activity at a level sufficient for early warning, build new tools for monitoring, maintain seismic computing resources, and maintain the new seismic stations.

Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.

2007-01-01

This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

Are Two Commonly Used Early Warning Indicators Accurate Predictors of Dropout for English Learner Students? Evidence from Six Districts in Washington State. REL 2017-261

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deussen, Theresa; Hanson, Havala; Bisht, Biraj

2017-01-01

Students who drop out of high school are at increased risk of a range of negative social and economic consequences, including lower earnings and poorer health. To reduce dropout rates and lessen these negative consequences, districts around the country are using early warning indicators to identify and provide supports for students at risk of…

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

2012-01-01

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

PubMed Central

Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

2012-01-01

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tantet, Alexis, E-mail: a.j.j.tantet@uu.nl; Burgt, Fiona R. van der; Dijkstra, Henk A.

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motionsmore » are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.« less

Advances in the mechanisms and early warning indicators of the postoperative cognitive dysfunction after the extracorporeal circulation.

PubMed

Liu, Chao; Han, Jian-ge

2015-02-01

The high incidence of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after extracorporeal circulation has seriously affected the prognosis and quality of life. Its mechanism may involve the inflammatory response and oxidative stress,the excessive phosphorylation of tau protein, the decreased blood volume and oxygen in the cerebral cortex. Appropriate early warning indicators of POCD after the extracorporeal circulation should be chosen to facilitate the cross validation of the results obtained different technical approaches and thus promote the early diagnosis and treatment of POCD.

SPIRALE: early warning optical space demonstrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galindo, D.; Carucci, A.

2004-11-01

Thanks to its global coverage, its peacetime capabilities and its availability, ballistic missiles Early Warning (EW) space systems are identified as a key node of a global missile defence system. Since the Gulf war in 1991, several feasibility studies of such an Early Warning system have been conducted in France. The main conclusions are first that the most appropriate concept is to use infra-red (IR) sensors on geo- stationary orbit satellites and second that the required satellite performances are achievable and accessible to European industries, even if technological developments are necessary. Besides that, it was recommended to prepare the development of the EW operational system, by demonstrating its achievable performances on the basis of collected background images and available target IR signatures. This is the objective of the "EW optical space demonstrator", also named SPIRALE (this a French acronym which stands for "Preparatory IR Program for EW"). A contract has been awarded early 2004, by DGA/SPOTI (French Armament Procurement Agency), to EADS Astrium France, with a significant participation of Alcatel Space, to perform this demonstration.

Early Flood Warning in Africa: Results of a Feasibility study in the JUBA, SHABELLE and ZAMBEZI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F. P.; de Roo, A. D.; Buizza, Roberto; Bodis, Katalin; Thiemig, Vera

2009-04-01

Building on the experiences gained with the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), pilot studies are carried out in three river basins in Africa. The European Flood Alert System, pre-operational since 2003, provides early flood alerts for European rivers. At present, the experiences with the European EFAS system are used to evaluate the feasibility of flood early warning for Africa. Three case studies are carried in the Juba and Shabelle rivers (Somalia and Ethiopia), and in the Zambesi river (Southern Africa). Predictions in these data scarce regions are extremely difficult to make as records of observations are scarce and often unreliable. Meteorological and Discharge observations are used to calibrate and test the model, as well as soils, landuse and topographic data available within the JRC African Observatory. ECMWF ERA-40, ERA-Interim data and re-forecasts of flood events from January to March 1978, and in March 2001 are evaluated to examine the feasibility for early flood warning. First results will be presented.

The Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans originated in central Mexico rather than the Andes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phytophthora infestans is a destructive plant pathogen best known for causing the disease that triggered the Irish potato famine and continues to be the most costly potato pathogen to manage worldwide. Identification of its elusive center of origin is critical to understanding the mechanisms of repe...

Reversing Africa's Decline. Worldwatch Paper 65.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; Wolf, Edward C.

This paper highlights some of the themes that any successful strategy to reverse the decline of Africa must embrace. Africa is a continent experiencing a breakdown in the relationship between people and their natural support systems. Famine and the threat of famine are among the manifestations of this breakdown. This decline can be reversed. To do…

Explaining Feast or Famine in Randomized Field Trials: Medical Science and Criminology Compared.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepherd, Jonathan P.

2003-01-01

Discusses the contrast between the frequency of randomized clinical trials in the health sciences and the relative famine of such studies in criminology. Attributes this difference to the contexts in which research is done and the difference in the status of situational research in the two disciplines. (SLD)

Modeling microbial products in activated sludge under feast-famine conditions.

PubMed

Ni, Bing-Jie; Fang, Fang; Rittmann, Bruce E; Yu, Han-Qing

2009-04-01

We develop an expanded unified model that integrates production and consumption of internal storage products (X(STO)) into a unified model for extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), soluble microbial products (SMP), and active and inert biomass in activated sludge. We also conducted independent experiments to find needed parameter values and to test the ability of the expanded unified model to describe all the microbial products, along with original substrate and oxygen uptake. The model simulations match all experimental measurements and provide insights into the dynamics of soluble and solid components in activated sludge exposed to dynamic feast-and-famine conditions in two batch experiments and in one cycle of a sequencing batch reactor. In particular, the model illustrates how X(STO) cycles up and down rapidly during feast and famine periods, while EPS and biomass components are relatively stable despite feast and famine. The agreement between model outputs and experimental EPS, SMP, and X(STO) data from distinctly different experiments supports that the expanded unified model properly captures the relationships among the forms of microbial products.

Skeletal manifestations of stress in child victims of the Great Irish Famine (1845-1852): prevalence of enamel hypoplasia, Harris lines, and growth retardation.

PubMed

Geber, Jonny

2014-09-01

The Great Irish Famine of 1845-1852 is among the worst food crises in human history. While numerous aspects of this period have been studied by generations of scholars, relatively little attention has so far been given to the physiological impact it is likely to have had on the people who suffered and succumbed to it. This study examines the prevalence of enamel hypoplasia, Harris lines, and growth retardation in the nonadult proportion of a skeletal population comprising victims of the Famine who died in the workhouse in the city of Kilkenny between 1847 and 1851. The frequency of enamel hypoplasia in these children does not appear to have increased as a consequence of famine, although this fact is likely to be a reflection of the osteological paradox. Harris lines and growth retardation; however, were very prevalent, and the manifestation and age-specific distribution of these may be indicators of the Famine experience. While there was no clear correlation in the occurrence of the assessed markers, the presence of cribra orbitalia displayed a significant relationship to enamel hypoplasia in 1- to 5-year-old children. While starvation, metabolic disorders and infectious diseases are likely to have greatly contributed to the manifestation of the markers, the psychosocial stress relating to institutionalization in the workhouse should not be underestimated as a substantial causative factor for skeletal stress in this population. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

2016-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

2014-12-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

rRNA and Poly-β-Hydroxybutyrate Dynamics in Bioreactors Subjected to Feast and Famine Cycles

PubMed Central

Frigon, Dominic; Muyzer, Gerard; van Loosdrecht, Mark; Raskin, Lutgarde

2006-01-01

Feast and famine cycles are common in activated sludge wastewater treatment systems, and they select for bacteria that accumulate storage compounds, such as poly-β-hydroxybutyrate (PHB). Previous studies have shown that variations in influent substrate concentrations force bacteria to accumulate high levels of rRNA compared to the levels in bacteria grown in chemostats. Therefore, it can be hypothesized that bacteria accumulate more rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles. However, PHB-accumulating bacteria can form biomass (grow) throughout a feast and famine cycle and thus have a lower peak biomass formation rate during the cycle. Consequently, PHB-accumulating bacteria may accumulate less rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles than bacteria that are not capable of PHB accumulation. These hypotheses were tested with Wautersia eutropha H16 (wild type) and W. eutropha PHB-4 (a mutant not capable of accumulating PHB) grown in chemostat and semibatch reactors. For both strains, the cellular RNA level was higher when the organism was grown in semibatch reactors than when it was grown in chemostats, and the specific biomass formation rates during the feast phase were linearly related to the cellular RNA levels for cultures. Although the two strains exhibited maximum uptake rates when they were grown in semibatch reactors, the wild-type strain responded much more rapidly to the addition of fresh medium than the mutant responded. Furthermore, the chemostat-grown mutant culture was unable to exhibit maximum substrate uptake rates when it was subjected to pulse-wise addition of fresh medium. These data show that the ability to accumulate PHB does not prevent bacteria from accumulating high levels of rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles. Our results also demonstrate that the ability to accumulate PHB makes the bacteria more responsive to sudden increases in substrate concentrations, which explains their ecological advantage. PMID:16597926

rRNA and poly-beta-hydroxybutyrate dynamics in bioreactors subjected to feast and famine cycles.

PubMed

Frigon, Dominic; Muyzer, Gerard; van Loosdrecht, Mark; Raskin, Lutgarde

2006-04-01

Feast and famine cycles are common in activated sludge wastewater treatment systems, and they select for bacteria that accumulate storage compounds, such as poly-beta-hydroxybutyrate (PHB). Previous studies have shown that variations in influent substrate concentrations force bacteria to accumulate high levels of rRNA compared to the levels in bacteria grown in chemostats. Therefore, it can be hypothesized that bacteria accumulate more rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles. However, PHB-accumulating bacteria can form biomass (grow) throughout a feast and famine cycle and thus have a lower peak biomass formation rate during the cycle. Consequently, PHB-accumulating bacteria may accumulate less rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles than bacteria that are not capable of PHB accumulation. These hypotheses were tested with Wautersia eutropha H16 (wild type) and W. eutropha PHB-4 (a mutant not capable of accumulating PHB) grown in chemostat and semibatch reactors. For both strains, the cellular RNA level was higher when the organism was grown in semibatch reactors than when it was grown in chemostats, and the specific biomass formation rates during the feast phase were linearly related to the cellular RNA levels for cultures. Although the two strains exhibited maximum uptake rates when they were grown in semibatch reactors, the wild-type strain responded much more rapidly to the addition of fresh medium than the mutant responded. Furthermore, the chemostat-grown mutant culture was unable to exhibit maximum substrate uptake rates when it was subjected to pulse-wise addition of fresh medium. These data show that the ability to accumulate PHB does not prevent bacteria from accumulating high levels of rRNA when they are subjected to feast and famine cycles. Our results also demonstrate that the ability to accumulate PHB makes the bacteria more responsive to sudden increases in substrate concentrations, which explains their ecological advantage.

Predicting the accumulation of storage compounds by Rhodococcus jostii RHA1 in the feast-famine growth cycles using genome-scale flux balance analysis

PubMed Central

Tajparast, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Feast-famine cycles in biological wastewater resource recovery systems select for bacterial species that accumulate intracellular storage compounds such as poly-β-hydroxybutyrate (PHB), glycogen, and triacylglycerols (TAG). These species survive better the famine phase and resume rapid substrate uptake at the beginning of the feast phase faster than microorganisms unable to accumulate storage. However, ecophysiological conditions favouring the accumulation of either storage compounds remain to be clarified, and predictive capabilities need to be developed to eventually rationally design reactors producing these compounds. Using a genome-scale metabolic modelling approach, the storage metabolism of Rhodococcus jostii RHA1 was investigated for steady-state feast-famine cycles on glucose and acetate as the sole carbon sources. R. jostii RHA1 is capable of accumulating the three storage compounds (PHB, TAG, and glycogen) simultaneously. According to the experimental observations, when glucose was the substrate, feast phase chemical oxygen demand (COD) accumulation was similar for the three storage compounds; when acetate was the substrate, however, PHB accumulation was 3 times higher than TAG accumulation and essentially no glycogen was accumulated. These results were simulated using the genome-scale metabolic model of R. jostii RHA1 (iMT1174) by means of flux balance analysis (FBA) to determine the objective functions capable of predicting these behaviours. Maximization of the growth rate was set as the main objective function, while minimization of total reaction fluxes and minimization of metabolic adjustment (environmental MOMA) were considered as the sub-objective functions. The environmental MOMA sub-objective performed better than the minimization of total reaction fluxes sub-objective function at predicting the mixture of storage compounds accumulated. Additional experiments with 13C-labelled bicarbonate (HCO3−) found that the fluxes through the central metabolism reactions during the feast phases were similar to the ones during the famine phases on acetate due to similarity in the carbon sources in the feast and famine phases (i.e., acetate and poly-β-hydroxybutyrate, respectively); this suggests that the environmental MOMA sub-objective function could be used to analyze successive environmental conditions such as the feast and famine cycles while the metabolically similar carbon sources are taken up by microorganisms. PMID:29494607

Predicting the accumulation of storage compounds by Rhodococcus jostii RHA1 in the feast-famine growth cycles using genome-scale flux balance analysis.

PubMed

Tajparast, Mohammad; Frigon, Dominic

2018-01-01

Feast-famine cycles in biological wastewater resource recovery systems select for bacterial species that accumulate intracellular storage compounds such as poly-β-hydroxybutyrate (PHB), glycogen, and triacylglycerols (TAG). These species survive better the famine phase and resume rapid substrate uptake at the beginning of the feast phase faster than microorganisms unable to accumulate storage. However, ecophysiological conditions favouring the accumulation of either storage compounds remain to be clarified, and predictive capabilities need to be developed to eventually rationally design reactors producing these compounds. Using a genome-scale metabolic modelling approach, the storage metabolism of Rhodococcus jostii RHA1 was investigated for steady-state feast-famine cycles on glucose and acetate as the sole carbon sources. R. jostii RHA1 is capable of accumulating the three storage compounds (PHB, TAG, and glycogen) simultaneously. According to the experimental observations, when glucose was the substrate, feast phase chemical oxygen demand (COD) accumulation was similar for the three storage compounds; when acetate was the substrate, however, PHB accumulation was 3 times higher than TAG accumulation and essentially no glycogen was accumulated. These results were simulated using the genome-scale metabolic model of R. jostii RHA1 (iMT1174) by means of flux balance analysis (FBA) to determine the objective functions capable of predicting these behaviours. Maximization of the growth rate was set as the main objective function, while minimization of total reaction fluxes and minimization of metabolic adjustment (environmental MOMA) were considered as the sub-objective functions. The environmental MOMA sub-objective performed better than the minimization of total reaction fluxes sub-objective function at predicting the mixture of storage compounds accumulated. Additional experiments with 13C-labelled bicarbonate (HCO3-) found that the fluxes through the central metabolism reactions during the feast phases were similar to the ones during the famine phases on acetate due to similarity in the carbon sources in the feast and famine phases (i.e., acetate and poly-β-hydroxybutyrate, respectively); this suggests that the environmental MOMA sub-objective function could be used to analyze successive environmental conditions such as the feast and famine cycles while the metabolically similar carbon sources are taken up by microorganisms.

Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

2010-05-01

The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for seismological monitoring and data analysis. The automatic seismic data processing software SeisComP3, is not only operational in the warning centre in Jakarta and successfully used for rapid earthquake information, but also in different Indian Ocean rim countries like the once mentioned before as well as in India, Thailand and Pakistan. Close cooperation has been established with Australia, South Africa and India for the real-time exchange mainly of seismological and sea level data.

The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements.

PubMed

Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J

2017-01-10

Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

Aerial Refueling For NATO’s Smart Defence Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

Rome: NATO Defense College, 2012, 148. 40 David A. Brown , "NATO Studying Development of Dedicated Refueling Unit Similar to Early Warning Force...accessed March 1, 2012). Brown , David A. "NATO Studying Development of Dedicated Refueling Unit Similar to Early Warning Force." Aviation Week...Aircraft. Coulsdon, Surrey: IHS Global Limited, 2011. Jennings, Gareth . "Nations Pool for NATO C-17A Fleet." Jane’s Defence Weekly, October 2008

Getting Students on Track for Graduation: Impacts of the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System after One Year. REL 2017-272

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faria, Ann-Marie; Sorensen, Nicholas; Heppen, Jessica; Bowdon, Jill; Taylor, Suzanne; Eisner, Ryan; Foster, Shandu

2017-01-01

Although high school graduation rates are rising--the national rate was 82 percent during the 2013/14 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015)--dropping out remains a persistent problem in the Midwest and nationally. Many schools now use early warning systems to identify students who are at risk of not graduating, with the goal of…

Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

ADO ) approach to implementing Network Centric Warfare (NCW) through ‘learning by doing’. Net Warrior was conceived to address, through... frameworks are able to satisfy design needs of applications to produce stable mission and net centric systems. NW-D10 employed a SOA approach to...UNCLASSIFIED Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes Derek Dominish

Efficient Flame Detection and Early Warning Sensors on Combustible Materials Using Hierarchical Graphene Oxide/Silicone Coatings.

PubMed

Wu, Qian; Gong, Li-Xiu; Li, Yang; Cao, Cheng-Fei; Tang, Long-Cheng; Wu, Lianbin; Zhao, Li; Zhang, Guo-Dong; Li, Shi-Neng; Gao, Jiefeng; Li, Yongjin; Mai, Yiu-Wing

2018-01-23

Design and development of smart sensors for rapid flame detection in postcombustion and early fire warning in precombustion situations are critically needed to improve the fire safety of combustible materials in many applications. Herein, we describe the fabrication of hierarchical coatings created by assembling a multilayered graphene oxide (GO)/silicone structure onto different combustible substrate materials. The resulting coatings exhibit distinct temperature-responsive electrical resistance change as efficient early warning sensors for detecting abnormal high environmental temperature, thus enabling fire prevention below the ignition temperature of combustible materials. After encountering a flame attack, we demonstrate extremely rapid flame detection response in 2-3 s and excellent flame self-extinguishing retardancy for the multilayered GO/silicone structure that can be synergistically transformed to a multiscale graphene/nanosilica protection layer. The hierarchical coatings developed are promising for fire prevention and protection applications in various critical fire risk and related perilous circumstances.

A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

2018-01-01

This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

PubMed

Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

2008-05-01

Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-24

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

2009-04-01

SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

2017-04-01

During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena addressed and variables to be considered for correlations. The characteristics of LEWSs at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the problem they address. Monitoring measures, variables and correlation laws considered for the design and employment of local LEWSs, strongly depends on the type of landslide to be addressed. On the other hand, territorial LEWSs mainly deals with rainfall-induced landslides characterized by fast slope movement. These systems have become a risk management approach, employed worldwide over areas of relevant extension. Before 2005 only few experiences of LEWSs at a regional scale were carried out, such as in: Hong Kong, China; Zhejiang Province, China; San Francisco Bay, California, USA; Appalachians, USA; Oregon, USA; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since the beginning of the XXI century, increased knowledge on rainfall-landslide correlations and upgraded technologies in weather forecast have promoted the development and improvement of territorial LEWSs around the world.

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset and its applications in drought risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; McNally, Amy; Dinku, Tufa; Barbosa, Humberto; Paredes-Trejo, Franklin; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Greg

2017-04-01

A high quality, long-term, high-resolution precipitation dataset is key for supporting drought-related risk management and food security early warning. Here, we present the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center under the direction of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). CHIRPS is a quasi-global precipitation product and is made available at daily to seasonal time scales with a spatial resolution of 0.05° and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. We begin by describing the three main components of CHIRPS - a high-resolution climatology, time-varying cold cloud duration precipitation estimates, and in situ precipitation estimates, and how they are combined. We then present a validation of this dataset and describe how CHIRPS is being disseminated and used in different applications, such as large-scale hydrologic models and crop water balance models. Validation of CHIRPS has focused on comparisons with precipitation products with global coverage, long periods of record and near real-time availability such as CPC-Unified, CFS Reanalysis and ECMWF datasets and datasets such GPCC and GPCP that incorporate high quality in situ datasets from places such as Uganda, Colombia, and the Sahel. The CHIRPS is shown to have low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. We find that CHIRPS performance appears quite similar to research quality products like the GPCC and GPCP, but with higher resolution and lower latency. We also present results from independent validation studies focused on South America and East Africa. CHIRPS is currently being used to drive FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), that incorporates multiple hydrologic models, and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), which is a widely used crop water balance model. The outputs (such as soil moisture and runoff) from these models are being used for real-time drought monitoring in Africa. Under support from the USAID FEWS NET, CHG/USGS has developed a two way strategy for dissemination of CHIRPS and related products (e.g. FLDAS, WRSI) and incorporate contributed station data. For example, we are currently working with partners in Mexico (Conagua), Southern Africa (SASSCAL), Colombia (IDEAM), Nigeria (Kukua), Somalia (SWALIM) and Ethiopia (NMA). These institutions provide in situ observations which enhance the CHIRPS and CHIRPS provides feedback on data quality. The CHIRPS is then placed in a web accessible geospatial database. Partners in these countries can then access CHIRPS and other outputs, and display this information using web-based mapping tools. This provides a win-win collaboration, leading to improved globally accessible precipitation estimates and improved climate services in developing nations.

Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

2017-01-01

Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has been designed with flexibility to accommodate significant changes in development of new or modified system code. It is expected that the TCP will continue to evolve along with the ShakeAlert system, and the framework we describe here provides one example of how earthquake early warning systems can be evaluated.

The rise and fall of the Phytophthora infestans lineage that triggered the Irish potato famine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potato late blight, caused by the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, is a plant pathogen of historical dimension that remains one of the world’s most destructive crop diseases. Ever since its first global outbreak of the 1840s that culminated in the Great Famine in Ireland, late blight has been a majo...

Notes from the field: mortality among refugees fleeing Somalia--Dadaab refugee camps, Kenya, July-August 2011.

PubMed

2011-08-26

Refugee camps in Dadaab, Kenya, currently are receiving Somali refugees fleeing famine and armed conflict at a rate of approximately 1,400 refugees per day. New arrivals are at an elevated risk for mortality because of severe famine in Somalia, the dangerous journey, and overcrowding in the camps.

Military Famine, Human Rights, and Child Hunger: A Cross-National Analysis, 1990-2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenkins, J. Craig; Scanlan, Stephen J.; Peterson, Lindsey

2007-01-01

Discussions of world hunger have focused on economic growth and international food aid, assuming that food supply is the critical issue. The authors show that food access rooted in social stratification and military power is the central problem. Synthesizing the entitlement and military famine approaches to hunger, the authors examine the effects…

[Academic heritage of Jiu huang ben cao (Materia Medica for Relief of Famines) in Japan].

PubMed

He, Huiling; Xiao, Yongzhi

2014-11-01

Jiu huang ben cao (Materia Medica for Relief of Famines) was the first monograph on famines herbal in the history of China, which creates a new research field of edible plants. Around the middle and late 17th century, Jiu huang ben cao was spread to Japan and aroused great attention of famous Japanese herbalists. Thus, all versions of different edition systems were circulated in Japan. Later, some famous Japanese scholar ssuccessively quoted texts of Jiu huang ben cao from the Nong zheng quan shu (Whole book on Agricultural Administration) spread in Japan, and block-printed it as an independent work. As a result, Jiu huang ben cao virtually circulated widely in Japan.

Global Environmental Alert Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, V. F.; Cervone, G.; Singh, A.; Kafatos, M.

2006-12-01

Every year natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. occur around the world, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries, billions of dollars in economic losses, and destroying natural landmarks and adveresely affecting ecosystems. Due to increasing urbanization, and increasingly higher percentage of the world's population living in megacities, the existence of nuclear power plants and other facilities whose potential destruction poses unacceptable high risks, natural hazards represent an increasing threat for economic losses, as well as risk to people and property. Warning systems represent an innovative and effective approach to mitigate the risks associated with natural hazards. Several state-of-the-art analyses show that early warning technologies are now available for most natural hazards and systems are already in operation in some parts of the world. Nevertheless, recent disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2005 Katrina hurricane, highlighted inadequacies in early warning system technologies. Furthermore, not all available technologies are deployed in every part of the world, due to the lack of awareness and resources in the poorer countries, leaving very large and densely populated areas at risk. Efforts towards the development of a global warning system are necessary for filling the gaps of existing technologies. A globally comprehensive early warning system based on existing technologies will be a means to consolidate scientific knowledge, package it in a form usable to international and national decision makers and actively disseminate this information to protect people and properties. There is not a single information broker who searches and packages the policy relevant material and delivers it in an understandable format to the public and decision makers. A critical review of existing systems reveals the need for the innovative service. We propose here a Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) that could provide information from monitoring, Earth observing and early warning systems to users in a near real time mode and bridge the gap between the scientific community and policy makers. Characteristics and operational aspects of GEAS are discussed.

Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

2016-06-01

In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

2013-04-01

The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was recently coupled with quantitative rainfall and temperature forecasts (given by the COSMO ME local scale models for Umbria) to extend the prediction up to 72 hours forecast. The main output is constituted by four spatially distributed early warning indicators (normal, caution, warning, alarm), in compliance with national and regional law, based on the comparison between the observed (forecasted) rainfall and the dynamic thresholds. The early warning indicators, calculated over the whole regional territory, are combined with susceptibility and vulnerability layers using a WEB-GIS platform, in order to build a near real time risk scenario. The main outcome of the system is a spatially distributed landslide hazard map with the highlight of areas where local risk situations may arise due to landslides induced by the interaction between meteorological forcing and the presence of vulnerability elements. The System is inclusive of specific sections dedicated to areas with specific risks (as debris flows prone areas), with specific thresholds. The main purpose of this study is firstly to describe the operational early warning system. Then, the integration of near real-time soil moisture data obtained through the satellite sensor ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) within the system is shown. This could allow enhancing the reliability of the modelled soil moisture data over the regional territory. The recent rainfall event of 11-14 November 2012 is used as case study. Reported triggered landslides are studied and used in order to check/refine the early warning system.

Detection of Deteriorating Patients on Surgical Wards Outside the ICU by an Automated MEWS-Based Early Warning System With Paging Functionality.

PubMed

Heller, Axel R; Mees, Sören T; Lauterwald, Benjamin; Reeps, Christian; Koch, Thea; Weitz, Jürgen

2018-05-16

The establishment of early warning systems in hospitals was strongly recommended in recent guidelines to detect deteriorating patients early and direct them to adequate care. Upon reaching predefined trigger criteria, Medical Emergency Teams (MET) should be notified and directed to these patients. The present study analyses the effect of introducing an automated multiparameter early warning score (MEWS)-based early warning system with paging functionality on 2 wards hosting patients recovering from highly complex surgical interventions. The deployment of the system was accompanied by retrospective data acquisition during 12 months (intervention) using 4 routine databases: Hospital patient data management, anesthesia database, local data of the German Resuscitation Registry, and measurement logs of the deployed system (intervention period only). A retrospective 12-month data review using the same aforementioned databases before the deployment of the system served as control. Control and intervention phases were separated by a 6-month washout period for the installation of the system and for training. Data from 3827 patients could be acquired from 2 surgical wards during the two 12-month periods, 1896 patients in the control and 1931 in the intervention cohorts. Patient characteristics differed between the 2 observation phases. American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification and duration of surgery as well as German DRG case-weight were significantly higher in the intervention period. However, the rate of cardiac arrests significantly dropped from 5.3 to 2.1 per 1000 admissions in the intervention period (P < 0.001). This observation was paralleled by a reduction of unplanned ICU admissions from 3.6% to 3.0% (P < 0.001), and an increase of notifications of critical conditions to the ward surgeon. The primary triggers for MET activation were abnormal ECG alerts, specifically asystole (n = 5), and pulseless electric activity (n = 8). In concert with a well-trained and organized MET, the early deterioration detection of patients on surgical wards outside the ICU may be improved by introducing an automated MEWS-based early warning system with paging functionality.

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

2016-04-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

2016-06-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

Design and field test equipment of river water level detection based on ultrasonic sensor and SMS gateway as flood early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistyowati, Riny; Sujono, Hari Agus; Musthofa, Ahmad Khamdi

2017-06-01

Due to the high rainfall, flood often occurs in some regions, especially in the area adjacent to the river banks that led to the idea to make the river water level detection system as a flood early warning. Several researches have produced flood detection equipment based on ultrasonic sensors and android as flood early warning system. This paper reported the results of a field test detection equipment to measure the river water level of the Bengawansolo River that was conducted in three villages in the district of Bungah, Dukun, and Manyar in Gresik regency. Tests were conducted simultaneously for 21 hours during heavy rainfall. The test results demonstrated the accuracy of the equipment of 97.28% for all categories of observation. The application of AFD (Android Flood Detection) via android smartphone demonstrated its precision in conveying the information of water level as represented by the status of SAFE, STAND, WARNING, and DANGER. Some charts presented from the analysis of data was derived from the data acquisition time of testing that can be used as an evaluation of flooding at some points prone to flood.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold models. Building on the experience gained in designing, implementing, and operating national and regional landslide forecasting systems in Italy, and on a preliminary review of the existing literature on regional landslide early warning systems, the talk discusses concepts, limitations and challenges inherent to the design of reliable forecasting and early warning systems for rainfall-triggered landslides, the evaluation of the performances of the systems, and on problems related to the use of the forecasts and the issuing of landslide warnings. Several of the typical elements of an operational landslide forecasting system are considered, including: (i) the rainfall and landslide information used to establish the threshold models, (ii) the methods and tools used to define the empirical rainfall thresholds, and their associated uncertainty, (iii) the quality (e.g., the temporal and spatial resolution) of the rainfall information used for operational forecasting, including rain gauge and radar measurements, satellite estimates, and quantitative weather forecasts, (iv) the ancillary information used to prepare the forecasts, including e.g., the terrain subdivisions and the landslide susceptibility zonations, (v) the criteria used to transform the forecasts into landslide warnings and the methods used to communicate the warnings, and (vi) the criteria and strategies adopted to evaluate the performances of the systems, and to define minimum or optimal performance levels.

The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

PubMed Central

Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

2017-09-01

The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

Use of cyanopigment determination as an indicator of cyanotoxins in drinking water.

PubMed

Schmidt, Wido; Petzoldt, Heike; Bornmann, Katrin; Imhof, Lutz; Moldaenke, Christian

2009-01-01

The indicator function of the fluorescence signals of the cyanopigments phycocyanin and phycoerythrin as early warning parameters against the microcystins in drinking water was investigated by lab- and pilot-scale studies. The early warning function of the fluorescence signals was examined with regard to the signals' real-time character, their sensitivity and the behaviour of the cyanopigments in different treatment stages in comparison to microcystins. Fluorescence measurements confirmed the real-time character, since they can be carried out on-site without the pre-concentration of pigments. The limit of detection of phycoerythrin is determined at 0.7 microg/L and of phycocyanin at 5.3 microg/L respectively. If the pigment/microcystin ratio is known and calculated to be higher than 1, very low microcystin concentrations can be estimated by the fluorescence signals. The compared behaviour of both pigments and selected microcystins (MC-LR and MC-RR) during water treatment shows that pigments have an early warning function against microcystins in conventional treatment stages using pre-oxidation with permanganate, powdered-activated carbon and chlorination. In contrast, cyanopigments do not have an early warning function if chlorine dioxide is used as a pre-oxidant or final disinfection agent. In order to use pigment control measurements in drinking water treatment the initial pigment/toxin ratio of the raw water must be known.

Assessment of a drowsy driver warning system for heavy-vehicle drivers : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

Drowsiness has a globally negative impact on performance, slowing reaction time, decreasing situational awareness, and impairing judgment. A field operational test of an early prototype Drowsy Driver Warning System was conducted as a result of 12 yea...

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

2012-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

2009-04-01

Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For sensors on land the processing system delivers deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether most probably a tsunami has been generated or not. For buoy based GNSS data the processing (differential, with GNSS reference station on land) delivers coordinates as well. Only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level height. Deviations to the mean sea level height are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GNSS system supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

Glucose Tolerance Testing and Anthropometric Comparisons Among Rural Residents of Kyiv Region: Investigating the Possible Effect of Childhood Starvation-A Community-Based Study.

PubMed

Khalangot, Mykola D; Kovtun, Volodymir A; Okhrimenko, Nadia V; Gurianov, Vitaly G; Kravchenko, Victor I

2017-01-01

A relationship between childhood starvation and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) in adulthood was previously indicated. Ukraine suffered a series of artificial famines between 1921 and 1947. Famines of 1932 to 1933 and 1946 were most severe among them. Long-term health consequences of these famines remain insufficiently investigated. Type 2 diabetes mellitus screening was conducted between June 2013 and December 2014. A total of 198 rural residents of Kyiv region more than 44 years of age, not registered as patients with T2D, were randomly selected. In all, 159 persons answered the question about starvation of parental family, including 73 born before 1947. Among them, 62 persons answered positive. Anthropometric measurements and glucose tolerance tests were performed. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate results. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was detected in 7 of 62 persons (11.3%), who starved during childhood vs 6 of 11 (54.5%) who did not ( P  = .002), age-adjusted and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval): 0.063 (0.007-0.557). Analysis of the anthropometric data revealed a negative connection between adulthood height and neck circumference (cm, continued variables) and childhood starvation: age-adjusted and sex-adjusted ORs 0.86 (0.76-0.97) and 0.73 (0.54-0.97), respectively. Individuals who starved during famines of 1932 to 1933 and 1946 in Ukraine had a decreased T2D prevalence several decades after the famine episodes.

Glucose Tolerance Testing and Anthropometric Comparisons Among Rural Residents of Kyiv Region: Investigating the Possible Effect of Childhood Starvation—A Community-Based Study

PubMed Central

Khalangot, Mykola D; Kovtun, Volodymir A; Okhrimenko, Nadia V; Gurianov, Vitaly G; Kravchenko, Victor I

2017-01-01

A relationship between childhood starvation and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) in adulthood was previously indicated. Ukraine suffered a series of artificial famines between 1921 and 1947. Famines of 1932 to 1933 and 1946 were most severe among them. Long-term health consequences of these famines remain insufficiently investigated. Type 2 diabetes mellitus screening was conducted between June 2013 and December 2014. A total of 198 rural residents of Kyiv region more than 44 years of age, not registered as patients with T2D, were randomly selected. In all, 159 persons answered the question about starvation of parental family, including 73 born before 1947. Among them, 62 persons answered positive. Anthropometric measurements and glucose tolerance tests were performed. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate results. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was detected in 7 of 62 persons (11.3%), who starved during childhood vs 6 of 11 (54.5%) who did not (P = .002), age-adjusted and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval): 0.063 (0.007-0.557). Analysis of the anthropometric data revealed a negative connection between adulthood height and neck circumference (cm, continued variables) and childhood starvation: age-adjusted and sex-adjusted ORs 0.86 (0.76-0.97) and 0.73 (0.54-0.97), respectively. Individuals who starved during famines of 1932 to 1933 and 1946 in Ukraine had a decreased T2D prevalence several decades after the famine episodes. PMID:29225471

Scurvy in the Great Irish Famine: evidence of vitamin C deficiency from a mid-19th century skeletal population.

PubMed

Geber, Jonny; Murphy, Eileen

2012-08-01

Scurvy has increasingly been recognized in archaeological populations since the 1980s but this study represents the first examination of the paleopathological findings of scurvy in a known famine population. The Great Famine (1845-1852) was a watershed in Irish history and resulted in the death of one million people and the mass emigration of just as many. It was initiated by a blight which completely wiped out the potato-virtually the only source of food for the poor of Ireland. This led to mass starvation and a widespread occurrence of infectious and metabolic diseases. A recent discovery of 970 human skeletons from mass burials dating to the height of the famine in Kilkenny City (1847-1851) provided an opportunity to study the skeletal manifestations of scurvy-a disease that became widespread at this time due to the sudden lack of Vitamin C which had previously almost exclusively been provided by the potato. A three-scale diagnostic reliance approach has been employed as a statistical aid for diagnosing the disease in the population. A biocultural approach was adopted to enable the findings to be contextualized and the etiology and impact of the disease explored. The results indicate that scurvy indirectly influenced famine-induced mortality. A sex and stature bias is evident among adults in which males and taller individuals displayed statistically significantly higher levels of scorbutic lesions. The findings have also suggested that new bone formation at the foramen rotundum is a diagnostic criterion for the paleopathological identification of scurvy, particularly among juveniles. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[An early warning method of cucumber downy mildew in solar greenhouse based on canopy temperature and humidity modeling].

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Li, Mei-lan; Xu, Jian-ping; Chen, Mei-xiang; Li, Wen-yong; Li, Ming

2015-10-01

The greenhouse environmental parameters can be used to establish greenhouse nirco-climate model, which can combine with disease model for early warning, with aim of ecological controlling diseases to reduce pesticide usage, and protecting greenhouse ecological environment to ensure the agricultural product quality safety. Greenhouse canopy leaf temperature and air relative humidity, models were established using energy balance and moisture balance principle inside the greenhouse. The leaf temperature model considered radiation heat transfer between the greenhouse crops, wall, soil and cover, plus the heat exchange caused by indoor net radiation and crop transpiration. Furthermore, the water dynamic balance in the greenhouse including leaf transpiration, soil evaporation, cover and leaf water vapor condensation, was considered to develop a relative humidity model. The primary infection and latent period warning models for cucumber downy mildew (Pseudoperonospora cubensis) were validated using the results of the leaf temperature and relative humidity model, and then the estimated disease occurrence date of cucumber downy mildew was compared with actual disease occurrence date of field observation. Finally, the results were verified by the measured temperature and humidity data of September and October, 2014. The results showed that the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) of the measured and estimated leaf temperature were 0.016 and 0.024 °C, and the RMSDs of the measured and estimated air relative humidity were 0.15% and 0.13%, respectively. Combining the result of estimated temperature and humidity models, a cucumber disease early warning system was established to forecast the date of disease occurrence, which met with the real date. Thus, this work could provide the micro-environment data for the early warning system of cucumber diseases in solar greenhouses.

Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. M.

2017-12-01

The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.