Predictive distributions were developed for the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analyses of continuous outcome data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Estimation of between-study heterogeneity is problematic in small meta-analyses. Bayesian meta-analysis is beneficial because it allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity. To facilitate this, we provide empirical evidence on the likely heterogeneity between studies in meta-analyses relating to specific research settings. Our analyses included 6,492 continuous-outcome meta-analyses within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We investigated the influence of meta-analysis settings on heterogeneity by modeling study data from all meta-analyses on the standardized mean difference scale. Meta-analysis setting was described according to outcome type, intervention comparison type, and medical area. Predictive distributions for between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses were obtained, which can be used directly as informative priors. Among outcome types, heterogeneity was found to be lowest in meta-analyses of obstetric outcomes. Among intervention comparison types, heterogeneity was lowest in meta-analyses comparing two pharmacologic interventions. Predictive distributions are reported for different settings. In two example meta-analyses, incorporating external evidence led to a more precise heterogeneity estimate. Heterogeneity was influenced by meta-analysis characteristics. Informative priors for between-study variance were derived for each specific setting. Our analyses thus assist the incorporation of realistic prior information into meta-analyses including few studies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alveolar ridge preservation after tooth extraction: a Bayesian Network meta-analysis of grafting materials efficacy on prevention of bone height and width reduction.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Pardiñas Lopez, Simon; Talib, Huzefa S

2017-01-01

To conduct a traditional meta-analysis and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis to synthesize the information coming from randomized controlled trials on different socket grafting materials and combine the resulting indirect evidence in order to make inferences on treatments that have not been compared directly. RCTs were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and subsequent statistical analysis. Bone height and width remodelling were selected as the chosen summary measures for comparison. First, a series of pairwise meta-analyses were performed and overall mean difference (MD) in mm with 95% CI was calculated between grafted versus non-grafted sockets. Then, a Bayesian Network meta-analysis was performed to draw indirect conclusions on which grafting materials can be considered most likely the best compared to the others. From the six included studies, seven comparisons were obtained. Traditional meta-analysis showed statistically significant results in favour of grafting the socket compared to no-graft both for height (MD 1.02, 95% CI 0.44-1.59, p value < 0.001) than for width (MD 1.52 95% CI 1.18-1.86, p value <0.000001) remodelling. Bayesian Network meta-analysis allowed to obtain a rank of intervention efficacy. On the basis of the results of the present analysis, socket grafting seems to be more favourable than unassisted socket healing. Moreover, Bayesian Network meta-analysis indicates that freeze-dried bone graft plus membrane is the most likely effective in the reduction of bone height remodelling. Autologous bone marrow resulted the most likely effective when width remodelling was considered. Studies with larger samples and less risk of bias should be conducted in the future in order to further strengthen the results of this analysis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis on Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection among Chinese Volunteer Blood Donors

PubMed Central

Liu, Guang-ying; Zheng, Yang; Deng, Yan; Gao, Yan-yan; Wang, Lie

2013-01-01

Background Although transfusion-transmitted infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) threatens the blood safety of China, the nationwide circumstance of HBV infection among blood donors is still unclear. Objectives To comprehensively estimate the prevalence of HBsAg positive and HBV occult infection (OBI) among Chinese volunteer blood donors through bayesian meta-analysis. Methods We performed an electronic search in Pub-Med, Web of Knowledge, Medline, Wanfang Data and CNKI, complemented by a hand search of relevant reference lists. Two authors independently extracted data from the eligible studies. Then two bayesian random-effect meta-analyses were performed, followed by bayesian meta-regressions. Results 5957412 and 571227 donors were identified in HBsAg group and OBI group, respectively. The pooled prevalence of HBsAg group and OBI group among donors is 1.085% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.859%∼1.398%) and 0.094% (95% CI 0.0578%∼0.1655%). For HBsAg group, subgroup analysis shows the more developed area has a lower prevalence than the less developed area; meta-regression indicates there is a significant decreasing trend in HBsAg positive prevalence with sampling year (beta = −0.1202, 95% −0.2081∼−0.0312). Conclusion Blood safety against HBV infection in China is suffering serious threats and the government should take effective measures to improve this situation. PMID:24236110

Does patent foramen ovale closure have an anti-arrhythmic effect? A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jarral, Omar A; Saso, Srdjan; Vecht, Joshua A; Harling, Leanne; Rao, Christopher; Ahmed, Kamran; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Malik, Iqbal S; Athanasiou, Thanos

2011-11-17

Atrial tachyarrhythmias are associated with patent foramen ovale. The objective was to determine the anti-arrhythmic effect of patent foramen ovale closure on pre-existing atrial tachyarrhythmias. Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar databases were searched between 1967 and 2010. The search was expanded using the 'related articles' function and reference lists of key studies. All studies reporting pre- and post-closure incidence (or prevalence) of atrial tachyarrhythmia in the same patient population were included. Random and fixed effect meta-analyses were used to aggregate the data. Six studies were identified including 2570 patients who underwent percutaneous closure. Atrial fibrillation was in fact the only AT reported in all studies. Meta-analysis using a fixed effects model demonstrated a significant reduction in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation with an OR of 0.43 (95% CI 0.26-0.71). When using the random-effects model, OR was 0.44 (95% CI 0.18-1.04) with a statistically significant trend demonstrated (test for overall effect: Z=1.87, p=0.06). Closure of a patent foramen ovale may be associated with reduction in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education.

PubMed

Belland, Brian R; Walker, Andrew E; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-12-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre-post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13).

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

PubMed Central

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains. This leaves much quantitative scaffolding literature not covered by existing meta-analyses. To address this gap, this study used Bayesian network meta-analysis to synthesize within-subjects (pre–post) differences resulting from scaffolding in 56 studies. We generated the posterior distribution using 20,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Scaffolding has a consistently strong effect across student populations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) disciplines, and assessment levels, and a strong effect when used with most problem-centered instructional models (exception: inquiry-based learning and modeling visualization) and educational levels (exception: secondary education). Results also indicate some promising areas for future scaffolding research, including scaffolding among students with learning disabilities, for whom the effect size was particularly large (ḡ = 3.13). PMID:29200508

Standard dose versus low dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wang, Kang-Ling; Giugliano, Robert P; Goto, Shinya; Chiu, Chun-Chih; Lin, Chun-Yi; Lai, En-Yu; Chiang, Chern-En

2016-12-01

Although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) indicated that standard dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were more compelling, low dose NOACs are commonly used in clinical practice in Asia. The purpose of this study was to assess the relative therapeutic benefit and risk of standard dose vs low dose NOACs in Asian patients enrolled in contemporary RCTs. We performed a prespecified meta-analysis of 3155 Asian patients with NOACs in the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) trials. Efficacy and safety with standard dose vs low dose NOACs were compared by risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random-effects model. An evidence network incorporating additional Asian patients from ROCKET AF, J- ROCKET AF, and ARISTOTLE was constructed with the Bayesian method. Risks of stroke or systemic embolism and ischemic stroke were significantly reduced with standard dose vs low dose NOACs (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85; and RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38-0.79, respectively). Rates of major, intracranial, and life-threatening bleeding with 2 dosing regimens were broadly similar (RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.74-2.33; RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.72-3.30; and RR 1.49, 95% CI 0.87-2.55, respectively). Absolute rates of all-cause mortality and the net clinical outcome with standard dose NOACs were lower but not statistically significant (absolute reduction 0.4% per year and 1.1% per year, respectively). Network meta-analyses demonstrated that standard dose NOACs had the most favorable risk-benefit profile among oral anticoagulants. In Asian patients, standard dose NOACs represent a more appealing therapeutic option than low dose NOACs, with a significant reduction in ischemic stroke without an excess of major bleeding. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A general framework for the use of logistic regression models in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark C; Higgins, Julian Pt

2016-12-01

Where individual participant data are available for every randomised trial in a meta-analysis of dichotomous event outcomes, "one-stage" random-effects logistic regression models have been proposed as a way to analyse these data. Such models can also be used even when individual participant data are not available and we have only summary contingency table data. One benefit of this one-stage regression model over conventional meta-analysis methods is that it maximises the correct binomial likelihood for the data and so does not require the common assumption that effect estimates are normally distributed. A second benefit of using this model is that it may be applied, with only minor modification, in a range of meta-analytic scenarios, including meta-regression, network meta-analyses and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. This single model can potentially replace the variety of often complex methods used in these areas. This paper considers, with a range of meta-analysis examples, how random-effects logistic regression models may be used in a number of different types of meta-analyses. This one-stage approach is compared with widely used meta-analysis methods including Bayesian network meta-analysis and the bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models for meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

Should Perioperative Supplemental Oxygen Be Routinely Recommended for Surgical Patients? A Bayesian Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kao, Lillian S.; Millas, Stefanos G.; Pedroza, Claudia; Tyson, Jon E.; Lally, Kevin P.

2012-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to use updated data and Bayesian methods to evaluate the effectiveness of hyperoxia to reduce surgical site infections (SSIs) and/or mortality in both colorectal and all surgical patients. Because few trials assessed potential harms of hyperoxia, hazards were not included. Background Use of hyperoxia to reduce SSIs is controversial. Three recent meta-analyses have had conflicting conclusions. Methods A systematic literature search and review were performed. Traditional fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analyses and Bayesian meta-analysis were performed to evaluate SSIs and mortality. Results Traditional meta-analysis yielded a relative risk of an SSI with hyperoxia among all surgery patients of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.73–0.97) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.61–1.16) for the fixed-effect and random effects models respectively. The probabilities of any risk reduction in SSIs among all surgery patients were 77%, 81%, and 83% for skeptical, neutral, and enthusiastic priors. Subset analysis of colorectal surgery patients increased the probabilities to 86%, 89%, and 92%. The probabilities of at least a 10% reduction were 57%, 62%, and 68% for all surgical patients and 71%, 75%, and 80% among the colorectal surgery subset. Conclusions There is a moderately high probability of a benefit to hyperoxia in reducing SSIs in colorectal surgery patients; however, the magnitude of benefit is relatively small and might not exceed treatment hazards. Further studies should focus on generalizability to other patient populations or on treatment hazards and other outcomes. PMID:23160100

A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis to Synthesize the Influence of Contexts of Scaffolding Use on Cognitive Outcomes in STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belland, Brian R.; Walker, Andrew E.; Kim, Nam Ju

2017-01-01

Computer-based scaffolding provides temporary support that enables students to participate in and become more proficient at complex skills like problem solving, argumentation, and evaluation. While meta-analyses have addressed between-subject differences on cognitive outcomes resulting from scaffolding, none has addressed within-subject gains.…

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

Nonvitamin-K-antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Diener, Hans-Chris; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Michel, Patrik

2017-08-01

Background In a previous systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed the efficacy and safety of nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke or transient ischemic attack. Since then, new information became available. Aim The aim of the present work was to update the results of the previous systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed until 24 August 2016 for randomized controlled trials using the following search items: "atrial fibrillation" and "anticoagulation" and "warfarin" and "previous stroke or transient ischemic attack." Eligible studies had to be phase III trials in patients with atrial fibrillation comparing warfarin with nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. The outcomes assessed in the efficacy analysis included stroke or systemic embolism, stroke, ischemic or unknown stroke, disabling or fatal stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, cardiovascular death, death from any cause, and myocardial infarction. The outcomes assessed in the safety analysis included major bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and major gastrointestinal bleeding. We performed fixed effects analyses on intention-to-treat basis. Results Among 183 potentially eligible articles, four were included in the meta-analysis. In 20,500 patients, compared to warfarin, nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (relative risk reduction: 13.7%, absolute risk reduction: 0.78%, number needed to treat to prevent one event: 127), hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk reduction: 50.0%, absolute risk reduction: 0.63%, number needed to treat: 157), any stroke (relative risk reduction: 13.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.7%, number needed to treat: 142), and intracranial hemorrhage (relative risk reduction: 46.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.88%, number needed to treat: 113) over 1.8-2.8 years. Conclusions This updated meta-analysis in 20,500 atrial fibrillation patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows that compared to warfarin non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants are associated with a significant reduction of stroke, stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and intracranial bleeding.

Ischemic Stroke Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score of 1: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Joundi, Raed A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Sposato, Luciano A; Saposnik, Gustavo

2016-05-01

The CHA2DS2-VASc score aims to improve risk stratification of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation to identify those who can safely forego oral anticoagulation. Oral anticoagulation treatment guidelines remain uncertain for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of ischemic stroke for patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, 1, or 2 not treated with oral anticoagulation. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science from the start of the database up until April 15, 2015. We included studies that stratified the risk of ischemic stroke by CHA2DS2-VASc score for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We estimated the summary annual rate of ischemic stroke using random effects meta-analyses and compared the estimated stroke rates with published net-benefit thresholds for initiating anticoagulants. 1162 abstracts were retrieved, of which 10 met all inclusion criteria for the study. There was substantial heterogeneity among studies. The summary estimate for the annual risk of ischemic stroke was 1.61% (95% confidence interval 0%-3.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, meeting the theoretical threshold for using novel oral anticoagulants (0.9%), but below the threshold for warfarin (1.7%). The summary incident risk of ischemic stroke was 0.68% (95% confidence interval 0.12%-1.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 and 2.49% (95% confidence interval 1.16%-3.83%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2. Our meta-analysis of ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients suggests that those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 may be considered for a novel oral anticoagulant, but because of high heterogeneity, the decision should be based on individual patient characteristics. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Psoriasis increases risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies.

PubMed

Upala, Sikarin; Shahnawaz, Afeefa; Sanguankeo, Anawin

2017-08-01

Psoriasis is a common chronic immune-mediated dermatological disease that increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association between psoriasis and atrial fibrillation from prospective observational studies. A comprehensive search of the databases of the MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed from inception through November 2015. The inclusion criterion was the prospective observational study that assessed the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in adults with psoriasis. Outcome was the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of atrial fibrillation comparison between patients with psoriasis and controls. Pooled HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model. The initial search yielded 176 articles. Fifteen articles underwent full-length review and data were extracted from 4 observational studies. Incidence of atrial fibrillation was ascertained by cardiologist-reviewed electrocardiograms. There was a significant increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with psoriasis compared to controls with a pooled HR 1.42 (95%CI 1.22-1.65). Our meta-analysis of prospective studies demonstrated that patients with psoriasis have increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation. Future interventional studies addressing the impact of psoriasis treatment and prevention of atrial fibrillation should be performed.

The importance of mean time in therapeutic range for complication rates in warfarin therapy of patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Vestergaard, Anne Sig; Skjøth, Flemming; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Ehlers, Lars Holger

2017-01-01

\\Anticoagulation is used for stroke prophylaxis in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, amongst other by use of the vitamin K antagonist, warfarin. Quality in warfarin therapy is often summarized by the time patients spend within the therapeutic range (percent time in therapeutic range, TTR). The correlation between TTR and the occurrence of complications during warfarin therapy has been established, but the influence of patient characteristics in that respect remains undetermined. The objective of the present papers was to examine the association between mean TTR and complication rates with adjustment for differences in relevant patient cohort characteristics. A systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE and Embase (2005-2015) to identify eligible studies reporting on use of warfarin therapy by patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and the occurrence of hemorrhage and thromboembolism. Both randomized controlled trials and observational cohort studies were included. The association between the reported mean TTR and major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism was analyzed by random-effects meta-regression with and without adjustment for relevant clinical cohort characteristics. In the adjusted meta-regressions, the impact of mean TTR on the occurrence of hemorrhage was adjusted for the mean age and the proportion of populations with prior stroke or transient ischemic attack. In the adjusted analyses on thromboembolism, the proportion of females was, furthermore, included. Of 2169 papers, 35 papers met pre-specified inclusion criteria, holding relevant information on 31 patient cohorts. In univariable meta-regression, increasing mean TTR was significantly associated with a decreased rate of both major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism. However, after adjustment mean TTR was no longer significantly associated with stroke/systemic embolism. The proportion of residual variance composed by between-study heterogeneity was substantial for all analyses. Although higher mean TTR in warfarin therapy was associated with lower complication rates in atrial fibrillation, the strength of the association was decreased when adjusting for differences in relevant clinical characteristics of the patient cohorts. This study suggests that mainly the safety of warfarin therapy increases with higher mean TTR, whereas effectiveness appears not to be substantially improved. Due to the limitations immanent in the meta-regression methods, the results of the present study should be interpreted with caution. Further research on the association between the quality of warfarin therapy and risk of complications is warranted with adjustment for clinically relevant characteristics.

Empirical evidence about inconsistency among studies in a pair-wise meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; Higgins, Julian P T

2016-12-01

This paper investigates how inconsistency (as measured by the I 2 statistic) among studies in a meta-analysis may differ, according to the type of outcome data and effect measure. We used hierarchical models to analyse data from 3873 binary, 5132 continuous and 880 mixed outcome meta-analyses within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Predictive distributions for inconsistency expected in future meta-analyses were obtained, which can inform priors for between-study variance. Inconsistency estimates were highest on average for binary outcome meta-analyses of risk differences and continuous outcome meta-analyses. For a planned binary outcome meta-analysis in a general research setting, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among log odds ratios had median 22% and 95% CI: 12% to 39%. For a continuous outcome meta-analysis, the predictive distribution for inconsistency among standardized mean differences had median 40% and 95% CI: 15% to 73%. Levels of inconsistency were similar for binary data measured by log odds ratios and log relative risks. Fitted distributions for inconsistency expected in continuous outcome meta-analyses using mean differences were almost identical to those using standardized mean differences. The empirical evidence on inconsistency gives guidance on which outcome measures are most likely to be consistent in particular circumstances and facilitates Bayesian meta-analysis with an informative prior for heterogeneity. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review.

PubMed

Weir, Christopher J; Butcher, Isabella; Assi, Valentina; Lewis, Stephanie C; Murray, Gordon D; Langhorne, Peter; Brady, Marian C

2018-03-07

Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses.

Meta-analysis of two studies in the presence of heterogeneity with applications in rare diseases.

PubMed

Friede, Tim; Röver, Christian; Wandel, Simon; Neuenschwander, Beat

2017-07-01

Random-effects meta-analyses are used to combine evidence of treatment effects from multiple studies. Since treatment effects may vary across trials due to differences in study characteristics, heterogeneity in treatment effects between studies must be accounted for to achieve valid inference. The standard model for random-effects meta-analysis assumes approximately normal effect estimates and a normal random-effects model. However, standard methods based on this model ignore the uncertainty in estimating the between-trial heterogeneity. In the special setting of only two studies and in the presence of heterogeneity, we investigate here alternatives such as the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method (HKSJ), the modified Knapp-Hartung method (mKH, a variation of the HKSJ method) and Bayesian random-effects meta-analyses with priors covering plausible heterogeneity values; R code to reproduce the examples is presented in an appendix. The properties of these methods are assessed by applying them to five examples from various rare diseases and by a simulation study. Whereas the standard method based on normal quantiles has poor coverage, the HKSJ and mKH generally lead to very long, and therefore inconclusive, confidence intervals. The Bayesian intervals on the whole show satisfying properties and offer a reasonable compromise between these two extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Conducting indirect-treatment-comparison and network-meta-analysis studies: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices: part 2.

PubMed

Hoaglin, David C; Hawkins, Neil; Jansen, Jeroen P; Scott, David A; Itzler, Robbin; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Boersma, Cornelis; Thompson, David; Larholt, Kay M; Diaz, Mireya; Barrett, Annabel

2011-06-01

Evidence-based health care decision making requires comparison of all relevant competing interventions. In the absence of randomized controlled trials involving a direct comparison of all treatments of interest, indirect treatment comparisons and network meta-analysis provide useful evidence for judiciously selecting the best treatment(s). Mixed treatment comparisons, a special case of network meta-analysis, combine direct evidence and indirect evidence for particular pairwise comparisons, thereby synthesizing a greater share of the available evidence than traditional meta-analysis. This report from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices Task Force provides guidance on technical aspects of conducting network meta-analyses (our use of this term includes most methods that involve meta-analysis in the context of a network of evidence). We start with a discussion of strategies for developing networks of evidence. Next we briefly review assumptions of network meta-analysis. Then we focus on the statistical analysis of the data: objectives, models (fixed-effects and random-effects), frequentist versus Bayesian approaches, and model validation. A checklist highlights key components of network meta-analysis, and substantial examples illustrate indirect treatment comparisons (both frequentist and Bayesian approaches) and network meta-analysis. A further section discusses eight key areas for future research. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A tutorial on Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of mixed binary-continuous outcomes with missing treatment effects.

PubMed

Gajic-Veljanoski, Olga; Cheung, Angela M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Tomlinson, George

2016-05-30

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BVMA) is a method of data synthesis that accounts for treatment effects measured on two outcomes. BVMA gives more precise estimates of the population mean and predicted values than two univariate random-effects meta-analyses (UVMAs). BVMA also addresses bias from incomplete reporting of outcomes. A few tutorials have covered technical details of BVMA of categorical or continuous outcomes. Limited guidance is available on how to analyze datasets that include trials with mixed continuous-binary outcomes where treatment effects on one outcome or the other are not reported. Given the advantages of Bayesian BVMA for handling missing outcomes, we present a tutorial for Bayesian BVMA of incompletely reported treatment effects on mixed bivariate outcomes. This step-by-step approach can serve as a model for our intended audience, the methodologist familiar with Bayesian meta-analysis, looking for practical advice on fitting bivariate models. To facilitate application of the proposed methods, we include our WinBUGS code. As an example, we use aggregate-level data from published trials to demonstrate the estimation of the effects of vitamin K and bisphosphonates on two correlated bone outcomes, fracture, and bone mineral density. We present datasets where reporting of the pairs of treatment effects on both outcomes was 'partially' complete (i.e., pairs completely reported in some trials), and we outline steps for modeling the incompletely reported data. To assess what is gained from the additional work required by BVMA, we compare the resulting estimates to those from separate UVMAs. We discuss methodological findings and make four recommendations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analysis, using empirical data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Davey, Jonathan; Clarke, Mike J; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian PT

2012-01-01

Background Many meta-analyses contain only a small number of studies, which makes it difficult to estimate the extent of between-study heterogeneity. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, and offers advantages over conventional random-effects meta-analysis. To assist in this, we provide empirical evidence on the likely extent of heterogeneity in particular areas of health care. Methods Our analyses included 14 886 meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We classified each meta-analysis according to the type of outcome, type of intervention comparison and medical specialty. By modelling the study data from all meta-analyses simultaneously, using the log odds ratio scale, we investigated the impact of meta-analysis characteristics on the underlying between-study heterogeneity variance. Predictive distributions were obtained for the heterogeneity expected in future meta-analyses. Results Between-study heterogeneity variances for meta-analyses in which the outcome was all-cause mortality were found to be on average 17% (95% CI 10–26) of variances for other outcomes. In meta-analyses comparing two active pharmacological interventions, heterogeneity was on average 75% (95% CI 58–95) of variances for non-pharmacological interventions. Meta-analysis size was found to have only a small effect on heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are presented for nine different settings, defined by type of outcome and type of intervention comparison. For example, for a planned meta-analysis comparing a pharmacological intervention against placebo or control with a subjectively measured outcome, the predictive distribution for heterogeneity is a log-normal (−2.13, 1.582) distribution, which has a median value of 0.12. In an example of meta-analysis of six studies, incorporating external evidence led to a smaller heterogeneity estimate and a narrower confidence interval for the combined intervention effect. Conclusions Meta-analysis characteristics were strongly associated with the degree of between-study heterogeneity, and predictive distributions for heterogeneity differed substantially across settings. The informative priors provided will be very beneficial in future meta-analyses including few studies. PMID:22461129

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

2013-01-01

The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Genetic polymorphisms for estimating risk of atrial fibrillation: a literature-based meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Smith, J. Gustav; Almgren, Peter; Engström, Gunnar; Hedblad, Bo; Platonov, Pyotr G.; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Melander, Olle

2013-01-01

Objectives Genome-wide association studies have recently identified genetic polymorphisms associated with common, etiologically complex diseases, for which direct-to-consumer genetic testing with provision of absolute genetic risk estimates is marketed by commercial companies. Polymorphisms associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) have shown relatively large risk estimates but the robustness of such estimates across populations and study designs has not been studied. Design A systematic literature review with meta-analysis and assessment of between-study heterogeneity was performed for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the six genetic regions associated with AF in genome-wide or candidate gene studies. Results Data from 18 samples of European ancestry (n=12,100 cases; 115,702 controls) were identified for the SNP on chromosome 4q25 (rs220733), 16 samples (n=12,694 cases; 132,602 controls) for the SNP on 16q22 (rs2106261) and 4 samples (n=5,272 cases; 59,725 controls) for the SNP in KCNH2 (rs1805123). Only the discovery studies were identified for SNPs on 1q21 and in GJA5 and IL6R, why no meta-analyses were performed for those SNPs. In overall random-effects meta-analyses, association with AF was observed for both SNPs from genome-wide studies on 4q25 (OR 1.67, 95% CI=1.50–1.86, p=2×10−21) and 16q22 (OR 1.21, 95% CI=1.13–1.29, p=1×10−8), but not the SNP in KCNH2 from candidate gene studies (p=0.15). There was substantial effect heterogeneity across case-control and cross-sectional studies for both polymorphisms (I2=0.50–0.78, p<0.05), but not across prospective cohort studies (I2=0.39, p=0.15). Both polymorphisms were robustly associated with AF for each study design individually (p<0.05). Conclusions In meta-analyses including up to 150,000 individuals, polymorphisms in two genetic regions were robustly associated with AF across all study designs but with substantial context-dependency of risk estimates. PMID:22690879

Radiofrequency Ablation versus Cryoablation in the Treatment of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Hachem, Ali H.; Marine, Joseph E.; Tahboub, Housam A.; Kamdar, Sana; Kanjwal, Shaffi; Soni, Ronak

2018-01-01

Background Pulmonary vein isolation is commonly performed using radiofrequency energy with cryoablation gaining acceptance. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials which compared radiofrequency versus cryoablation for patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods A systematic search strategy identified both published and unpublished articles from inception to November 10, 2016, in multiple databases. The primary outcomes for this meta-analysis were long-term freedom from atrial fibrillation at 12-month follow-up and overall postoperative complication rates. For all included studies, the methodological quality was assessed through the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for risk of bias. Results A total of 247 articles were identified with eight being included in this review as they satisfied the prespecified inclusion criteria. Overall, there was no significant difference in freedom from atrial fibrillation at ≥12-month follow-up between those receiving cryoballoon and radiofrequency ablation, respectively (OR = 0.98, CI = 0.67–1.43, I2 = 56%, p=0.90). Additionally, the secondary outcomes of duration of ablation, fluoroscopy time, and ablation time failed to reach significance. Cryoballoon ablation had significantly greater odds of postoperative phrenic nerve injury at 12-month follow-up. Conclusions Our meta-analysis suggests that cryoballoon ablation provides comparable benefits with regard to freedom from atrial fibrillation at medium-term follow-up, fluoroscopy time, ablation time, operative duration, and overall complication rate in comparison to radiofrequency ablation. PMID:29805800

Outdoor fine particles and nonfatal strokes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shin, Hwashin H; Fann, Neal; Burnett, Richard T; Cohen, Aaron; Hubbell, Bryan J

2014-11-01

Epidemiologic studies find that long- and short-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. However, few systematic reviews or meta-analyses have synthesized these results. We reviewed epidemiologic studies that estimated the risks of nonfatal strokes attributable to ambient PM2.5. To pool risks among studies we used a random-effects model and 2 Bayesian approaches. The first Bayesian approach assumes a normal prior that allows risks to be zero, positive or negative. The second assumes a gamma prior, where risks can only be positive. This second approach is proposed when the number of studies pooled is small, and there is toxicological or clinical literature to support a causal relation. We identified 20 studies suitable for quantitative meta-analysis. Evidence for publication bias is limited. The frequentist meta-analysis produced pooled risk ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.13) and 1.007 (1.003-1.010) for long- and short-term effects, respectively. The Bayesian meta-analysis found a posterior mean risk ratio of 1.08 (95% posterior interval = 0.96-1.26) and 1.008 (1.003-1.013) from a normal prior, and of 1.05 (1.02-1.10) and 1.008 (1.004-1.013) from a gamma prior, for long- and short-term effects, respectively, per 10 μg/m PM2.5. Sufficient evidence exists to develop a concentration-response relation for short- and long-term exposures to PM2.5 and stroke incidence. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 result in a higher risk ratio than short-term exposures, regardless of the pooling method. The evidence for short-term PM2.5-related ischemic stroke is especially strong.

Meta-analysis: antithrombotic therapy to prevent stroke in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Hart, Robert G; Pearce, Lesly A; Aguilar, Maria I

2007-06-19

Atrial fibrillation is a strong independent risk factor for stroke. To characterize the efficacy and safety of antithrombotic agents for stroke prevention in patients who have atrial fibrillation, adding 13 recent randomized trials to a previous meta-analysis. Randomized trials identified by using the Cochrane Stroke Group search strategy, 1966 to March 2007, unrestricted by language. All published randomized trials with a mean follow-up of 3 months or longer that tested antithrombotic agents in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Two coauthors independently extracted information regarding interventions; participants; and occurrences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, major extracranial bleeding, and death. Twenty-nine trials included 28,044 participants (mean age, 71 years; mean follow-up, 1.5 years). Compared with the control, adjusted-dose warfarin (6 trials, 2900 participants) and antiplatelet agents (8 trials, 4876 participants) reduced stroke by 64% (95% CI, 49% to 74%) and 22% (CI, 6% to 35%), respectively. Adjusted-dose warfarin was substantially more efficacious than antiplatelet therapy (relative risk reduction, 39% [CI, 22% to 52%]) (12 trials, 12 963 participants). Other randomized comparisons were inconclusive. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage were small (< or =0.3% per year) on the basis of meta-analysis. Methodological features and quality varied substantially and often were incompletely reported. Adjusted-dose warfarin and antiplatelet agents reduce stroke by approximately 60% and by approximately 20%, respectively, in patients who have atrial fibrillation. Warfarin is substantially more efficacious (by approximately 40%) than antiplatelet therapy. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage associated with antithrombotic therapy in participants from the trials included in this meta-analysis were less than the absolute reductions in stroke. Judicious use of antithrombotic therapy importantly reduces stroke for most patients who have atrial fibrillation.

Effects of intranasal oxytocin on symptoms of schizophrenia: A multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis.

PubMed

Williams, Donald R; Bürkner, Paul-Christian

2017-01-01

Schizophrenia is a heterogeneous disorder in which psychiatric symptoms are classified into two general subgroups-positive and negative symptoms. Current antipsychotic drugs are effective for treating positive symptoms, whereas negative symptoms are less responsive. Since the neuropeptide oxytocin (OT) has been shown to mediate social behavior in animals and humans, it has been used as an experimental therapeutic for treating schizophrenia and in particular negative symptoms which includes social deficits. Through eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and three meta-analyses, evidence for an effect of intranasal OT (IN-OT) has been inconsistent. We therefore conducted an updated meta-analysis that offers several advantages when compared to those done previously: (1) We used a multivariate analysis which allows for comparisons between symptoms and accounts for correlations between symptoms; (2) We controlled for baseline scores; (3) We used a fully Bayesian framework that allows for assessment of evidence in favor of the null hypothesis using Bayes factors; and (4) We addressed inconsistencies in the primary studies and previous meta-analyses. Eight RCTs (n=238) were included in the present study and we found that oxytocin did not improve any aspect of symptomology in schizophrenic patients and there was moderate evidence in favor of the null (no effect of oxytocin) for negative symptoms. Multivariate comparisons between symptom types revealed that oxytocin was not especially beneficial for treating negative symptoms. The effect size estimates were not moderated, publication bias was absent, and our estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses. These results suggest that IN-OT is not an effective therapeutic for schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of few small studies in orphan diseases.

PubMed

Friede, Tim; Röver, Christian; Wandel, Simon; Neuenschwander, Beat

2017-03-01

Meta-analyses in orphan diseases and small populations generally face particular problems, including small numbers of studies, small study sizes and heterogeneity of results. However, the heterogeneity is difficult to estimate if only very few studies are included. Motivated by a systematic review in immunosuppression following liver transplantation in children, we investigate the properties of a range of commonly used frequentist and Bayesian procedures in simulation studies. Furthermore, the consequences for interval estimation of the common treatment effect in random-effects meta-analysis are assessed. The Bayesian credibility intervals using weakly informative priors for the between-trial heterogeneity exhibited coverage probabilities in excess of the nominal level for a range of scenarios considered. However, they tended to be shorter than those obtained by the Knapp-Hartung method, which were also conservative. In contrast, methods based on normal quantiles exhibited coverages well below the nominal levels in many scenarios. With very few studies, the performance of the Bayesian credibility intervals is of course sensitive to the specification of the prior for the between-trial heterogeneity. In conclusion, the use of weakly informative priors as exemplified by half-normal priors (with a scale of 0.5 or 1.0) for log odds ratios is recommended for applications in rare diseases. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

Haematological indices as predictors of atrial fibrillation following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting, valvular surgery, or combined procedures: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Weymann, Alexander; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Sabashnikov, Anton; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Liu, Tong; Tse, Gary; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Ghanei, Azam; Testa, Luca; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Benedetto, Umberto; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Roever, Leonardo; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Baker, William L; Yavuz, Senol; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Mashhour, Ahmed; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Jang, Jae-Sik; Meng, Lei; Gong, Mengqi; Deshmukh, Abhishek J; Palmerini, Tullio; Linde, Cecilia; Filipiak, Krzysztof J; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Calkins, Hugh; Stone, Gregg W

2018-01-01

New postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is one of the most critical and common complications after cardio¬vascular surgery precipitating early and late morbidities. Complete blood count (CBC) is an imperative blood test in clinical practice, routinely used in the examination of cardiovascular diseases. This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of haematological indices in CBC tests with atrial fibrillation following isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), isolated valvular surgery, or a combination of these treatments. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies evaluating pre- and postoperative haematological indices in patients with POAF. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. A literature search of all major databases retrieved 732 studies. After screening, 22 studies were analysed including a total of 6098 patients. Pooled analysis showed preoperative platelet count (PC) (weighted mean difference [WMD] = -7.07 × 109/L and p < 0.001), preoperative mean platelet volume (MPV) (WMD = 0.53 FL and p < 0.001), preoperative white blood cell count (WBC) (WMD = 0.130 × 109/L and p < 0.001), preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (WMD = 0.33 and p < 0.001), preoperative red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (WMD = 0.36% and p < 0.001), postoperative WBC (WMD = 1.36 × 109/L and p < 0.001), and postoperative NLR (WMD = 0.74 and p < 0.001) as associated factors with POAF. Haematological indices may predict the risk of POAF before surgery. These easily-performed tests should defi¬nitely be taken into account in patients undergoing isolated CABG, valvular surgery, or combined procedures.

Digoxin for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter: A systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C.

2018-01-01

Background During recent years, systematic reviews of observational studies have compared digoxin to no digoxin in patients with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and the results of these reviews suggested that digoxin seems to increase the risk of all-cause mortality regardless of concomitant heart failure. Our objective was to assess the benefits and harms of digoxin for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter based on randomized clinical trials. Methods We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, SCI-Expanded, BIOSIS for eligible trials comparing digoxin versus placebo, no intervention, or other medical interventions in patients with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter in October 2016. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, and quality of life. Our secondary outcomes were heart failure, stroke, heart rate control, and conversion to sinus rhythm. We performed both random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses and chose the more conservative result as our primary result. We used Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA) to control for random errors. We used GRADE to assess the quality of the body of evidence. Results 28 trials (n = 2223 participants) were included. All were at high risk of bias and reported only short-term follow-up. When digoxin was compared with all control interventions in one analysis, we found no evidence of a difference on all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR), 0.82; TSA-adjusted confidence interval (CI), 0.02 to 31.2; I2 = 0%); serious adverse events (RR, 1.65; TSA-adjusted CI, 0.24 to 11.5; I2 = 0%); quality of life; heart failure (RR, 1.05; TSA-adjusted CI, 0.00 to 1141.8; I2 = 51%); and stroke (RR, 2.27; TSA-adjusted CI, 0.00 to 7887.3; I2 = 17%). Our analyses on acute heart rate control (within 6 hours of treatment onset) showed firm evidence of digoxin being superior compared with placebo (mean difference (MD), -12.0 beats per minute (bpm); TSA-adjusted CI, -17.2 to -6.76; I2 = 0%) and inferior compared with beta blockers (MD, 20.7 bpm; TSA-adjusted CI, 14.2 to 27.2; I2 = 0%). Meta-analyses on acute heart rate control showed that digoxin was inferior compared with both calcium antagonists (MD, 21.0 bpm; TSA-adjusted CI, -30.3 to 72.3) and with amiodarone (MD, 14.7 bpm; TSA-adjusted CI, -0.58 to 30.0; I2 = 42%), but in both comparisons TSAs showed that we lacked information. Meta-analysis on acute conversion to sinus rhythm showed that digoxin compared with amiodarone reduced the probability of converting atrial fibrillation to sinus rhythm, but TSA showed that we lacked information (RR, 0.54; TSA-adjusted CI, 0.13 to 2.21; I2 = 0%). Conclusions The clinical effects of digoxin on all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, quality of life, heart failure, and stroke are unclear based on current evidence. Digoxin seems to be superior compared with placebo in reducing the heart rate, but inferior compared with beta blockers. The long-term effect of digoxin is unclear, as no trials reported long-term follow-up. More trials at low risk of bias and low risk of random errors assessing the clinical effects of digoxin are needed. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016052935 PMID:29518134

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Physical activity volume in relation to risk of atrial fibrillation. A non-linear meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Ricci, Cristian; Gervasi, Federico; Gaeta, Maddalena; Smuts, Cornelius M; Schutte, Aletta E; Leitzmann, Michael F

2018-05-01

Background Light physical activity is known to reduce atrial fibrillation risk, whereas moderate to vigorous physical activity may result in an increased risk. However, the question of what volume of physical activity can be considered beneficial remains poorly understood. The scope of the present work was to examine the relation between physical activity volume and atrial fibrillation risk. Design A comprehensive systematic review was performed following the PRISMA guidelines. Methods A non-linear meta-regression considering the amount of energy spent in physical activity was carried out. The first derivative of the non-linear relation between physical activity and atrial fibrillation risk was evaluated to determine the volume of physical activity that carried the minimum atrial fibrillation risk. Results The dose-response analysis of the relation between physical activity and atrial fibrillation risk showed that physical activity at volumes of 5-20 metabolic equivalents per week (MET-h/week) was associated with significant reduction in atrial fibrillation risk (relative risk for 19 MET-h/week = 0.92 (0.87, 0.98). By comparison, physical activity volumes exceeding 20 MET-h/week were unrelated to atrial fibrillation risk (relative risk for 21 MET-h/week = 0.95 (0.88, 1.02). Conclusion These data show a J-shaped relation between physical activity volume and atrial fibrillation risk. Physical activity at volumes of up to 20 MET-h/week is associated with reduced atrial fibrillation risk, whereas volumes exceeding 20 MET-h/week show no relation with risk.

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Adjusting for partial verification or workup bias in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

de Groot, Joris A H; Dendukuri, Nandini; Janssen, Kristel J M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Brophy, James; Joseph, Lawrence; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Moons, Karel G M

2012-04-15

A key requirement in the design of diagnostic accuracy studies is that all study participants receive both the test under evaluation and the reference standard test. For a variety of practical and ethical reasons, sometimes only a proportion of patients receive the reference standard, which can bias the accuracy estimates. Numerous methods have been described for correcting this partial verification bias or workup bias in individual studies. In this article, the authors describe a Bayesian method for obtaining adjusted results from a diagnostic meta-analysis when partial verification or workup bias is present in a subset of the primary studies. The method corrects for verification bias without having to exclude primary studies with verification bias, thus preserving the main advantages of a meta-analysis: increased precision and better generalizability. The results of this method are compared with the existing methods for dealing with verification bias in diagnostic meta-analyses. For illustration, the authors use empirical data from a systematic review of studies of the accuracy of the immunohistochemistry test for diagnosis of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status in breast cancer patients.

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

Field Synopsis and Re-analysis of Systematic Meta-analyses of Genetic Association Studies in Multiple Sclerosis: a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Park, Jae Hyon; Kim, Joo Hi; Jo, Kye Eun; Na, Se Whan; Eisenhut, Michael; Kronbichler, Andreas; Lee, Keum Hwa; Shin, Jae Il

2018-07-01

To provide an up-to-date summary of multiple sclerosis-susceptible gene variants and assess the noteworthiness in hopes of finding true associations, we investigated the results of 44 meta-analyses on gene variants and multiple sclerosis published through December 2016. Out of 70 statistically significant genotype associations, roughly a fifth (21%) of the comparisons showed noteworthy false-positive rate probability (FPRP) at a statistical power to detect an OR of 1.5 and at a prior probability of 10 -6 assumed for a random single nucleotide polymorphism. These associations (IRF8/rs17445836, STAT3/rs744166, HLA/rs4959093, HLA/rs2647046, HLA/rs7382297, HLA/rs17421624, HLA/rs2517646, HLA/rs9261491, HLA/rs2857439, HLA/rs16896944, HLA/rs3132671, HLA/rs2857435, HLA/rs9261471, HLA/rs2523393, HLA-DRB1/rs3135388, RGS1/rs2760524, PTGER4/rs9292777) also showed a noteworthy Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP) and one additional association (CD24 rs8734/rs52812045) was also noteworthy via BFDP computation. Herein, we have identified several noteworthy biomarkers of multiple sclerosis susceptibility. We hope these data are used to study multiple sclerosis genetics and inform future screening programs.

On- vs. off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dieberg, Gudrun; Smart, Neil A; King, Nicola

2016-11-15

To reduce complications during coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) off-pump CABG was introduced; however, results have been mixed. The aim of this work was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of off-pump vs. on-pump CABG. To identify potential studies systematic searches were carried out using various databases. The search strategy included the key concepts of "cardiopulmonary bypass" AND "coronary artery bypass grafting" AND "off pump". This was followed by a meta-analysis investigating post-operative atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, ≤30day mortality, stroke, ventilation time, intensive care unit (ICU) stay and hospital stay. Fifty four studies (59 intervention groups), totalling 16,261 participants were analysed. Off pump CABG led to a significantly lower incidence of post-operative atrial fibrillation odds ratio (OR) 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 0.97, p=0.01), but no differences in either myocardial infarction OR 0.98 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.15, p=0.77) or ≤30day mortality OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.06, p=0.16). There was a strong trend towards a reduced incidence of stroke OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.00, p=0.05); however this did not quite reach significance. Ventilation time mean difference (MD) -3.78h (95% CI -4.75 to -2.82, p<0.00001); ICU stay MD -0.34days (95% CI -0.50 to -0.17, p<0.0001); and hospital stay MD -0.9days (95% CI -1.25 to -0.56, p<0.00001) were all significantly shorter in the off-pump group. Off-pump CABG has some benefits over on-pump CABG, particularly in relation to post-operative atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apixaban: Effective and Safe in Preventing Thromboembolic Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Renal Failure.

PubMed

Cortese, Francesca; Scicchitano, Pietro; Gesualdo, Michele; Ricci, Gabriella; Carbonara, Santa; Franchini, Carlo; Pia Schiavone, Brigida Immacolata; Corbo, Filomena; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

2017-11-17

Thromboembolic events, principally stroke, represent one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among subjects with atrial fibrillation. Chronic kidney disease determines a further increase of thromboembolic events, bleeding and mortality and complicates the pharmacological management of patients with atrial fibrillation, mainly due to the side effects of antiarrhythmic and anticoagulant drugs with renal excretion. Apixaban is a new oral anticoagulant characterized by good bioavailability and renal elimination accounting for only 25%, showing a safety profile and effectiveness in patients with renal impairment. In this manuscript, we reviewed literature data on the use of apixaban in the management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in patients with renal failure, in order to clarify an often-debated topic in clinical practice. A PubMed search was performed on the terms atrial fibrillation, apixaban and renal failure with the aim of identifying relevant manuscripts, large randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, and current guidelines. Literature data show that apixaban could represent an interesting alternative to warfarin and other selective antagonists of coagulation factors in patients with impaired renal function. About the risk of major bleeding, apixaban appears to be safer than warfarin in the presence of any degree of renal failure. Apixaban show to be an effective anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation, even superior to warfarin in reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism regardless of the presence of renal insufficiency. Moreover, Food and Drug Administration allows the use of apixaban in patients with end stage renal disease on hemodialysis. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

β-Blockers in hypertension: studies and meta-analyses over the years.

PubMed

Larochelle, Pierre; Tobe, Sheldon W; Lacourcière, Yves

2014-05-01

β-Blockers are among the most commonly used medications in the treatment of hypertension. However, 45 years after their initial indication for that treatment, their place in the treatment of hypertensive patients is under evaluation and their usefulness has been questioned based on evidence from meta-analyses of clinical trials. The β-blocker class consists of various agents with diverse pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties including lipo- and hydrophilicity, duration of action, intrinsic sympathomimetic activity, vasodilation, and metabolism linked to genetic polymorphisms. Because of their various properties, some β-blockers are indicated for cardiovascular conditions such as angina, rate control of atrial fibrillation, chronic heart failure, and after myocardial infarction, and other indications such as migraine and essential tremor. There have been more than 17 large trials influencing the recommendations on the use of these agents in the treatment of hypertension. The results of these trials initially led to the widespread recommendation for the use of β-blockers in the management of hypertension. However, the recent multiple meta-analyses using these trials have raised a controversy on their place in that treatment. The Canadian Hypertension Education Program recommendations have included β-blockers as a first-line treatment option for patients younger than 60 years of age based on the evidence from these large trials, and this has been supported by 2 of the meta-analyses. This article reviews these studies to help clinicians better understand the role of β-blockers in managing hypertension. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Closure of patent foramen ovale for cryptogenic stroke patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Niu, Xuan; Ou-Yang, Guang; Yan, Peng-Fei; Huang, Shu-Lan; Zhang, Zhen-Tao; Zhang, Zhao-Hui

2018-06-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter device closure (TDC) plus anti-thrombotic drugs over medical management alone for patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen oval. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library database were searched for randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs). The primary endpoint is the composite of stroke and transient ischemic attack. The secondary endpoints are all-cause mortality, total serious adverse events, atrial fibrillation and bleeding. Five RCTs with a total of 3440 participants were included. TDC significantly decreased the risk of primary endpoint when compared to medical therapy alone (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.43-0.69). Further subgroup analyses showed that patients with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale significantly benefited from TDC as compared to those with female gender and with no substantial shunt size of foramen oval separately. Moreover, TDC was superior to medical therapy with anti-platelet drug alone (not with anti-coagulation). On the other hand, the incidence of atrial fibrillation was higher in TDC group (RR 4.49, 95% CI 2.02-9.97), with the risk of other adverse events equivalent between the two groups. TDC plus anti-thrombotic drugs is superior than medical therapy alone for secondary prevention of stroke, especially for those with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale. Though it may increase the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation, it would not bring higher risk of all-cause mortality, total adverse events and bleeding.

Is Cryoballoon Ablation Preferable to Radiofrequency Ablation for Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation by Pulmonary Vein Isolation? A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Xu, Junxia; Huang, Yingqun; Cai, Hongbin; Qi, Yue; Jia, Nan; Shen, Weifeng; Lin, Jinxiu; Peng, Feng; Niu, Wenquan

2014-01-01

Objective Currently radiofrequency and cryoballoon ablations are the two standard ablation systems used for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation; however, there is no universal consensus on which ablation is the optimal choice. We therefore sought to undertake a meta-analysis with special emphases on comparing the efficacy and safety between cryoballoon and radiofrequency ablations by synthesizing published clinical trials. Methods and Results Articles were identified by searching the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases before September 2013, by reviewing the bibliographies of eligible reports, and by consulting with experts in this field. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate. There were respectively 469 and 635 patients referred for cryoballoon and radiofrequency ablations from 14 qualified clinical trials. Overall analyses indicated that cryoballoon ablation significantly reduced fluoroscopic time and total procedure time by a weighted mean of 14.13 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.82 to 25.45; P = 0.014) minutes and 29.65 (95% CI: 8.54 to 50.77; P = 0.006) minutes compared with radiofrequency ablation, respectively, whereas ablation time in cryoballoon ablation was nonsignificantly elongated by a weighted mean of 11.66 (95% CI: −10.71 to 34.04; P = 0.307) minutes. Patients referred for cryoballoon ablation had a high yet nonsignificant success rate of catheter ablation compared with cryoballoon ablation (odds ratio; 95% CI; P: 1.34; 0.53 to 3.36; 0.538), and cryoballoon ablation was also found to be associated with the relatively low risk of having recurrent atrial fibrillation (0.75; 0.3 to 1.88; 0.538) and major complications (0.46; 0.11 to 1.83; 0.269). There was strong evidence of heterogeneity and low probability of publication bias. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate greater improvement in fluoroscopic time and total procedure duration for atrial fibrillation patients referred for cryoballoon ablation than those for radiofrequency ablation. PMID:24587324

Meta-analysis identifies six new susceptibility loci for atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Ellinor, Patrick T; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Albert, Christine M; Glazer, Nicole L; Ritchie, Marylyn D; Smith, Albert V; Arking, Dan E; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Krijthe, Bouwe P; Lubitz, Steven A; Bis, Joshua C; Chung, Mina K; Dörr, Marcus; Ozaki, Kouichi; Roberts, Jason D; Smith, J Gustav; Pfeufer, Arne; Sinner, Moritz F; Lohman, Kurt; Ding, Jingzhong; Smith, Nicholas L; Smith, Jonathan D; Rienstra, Michiel; Rice, Kenneth M; Van Wagoner, David R; Magnani, Jared W; Wakili, Reza; Clauss, Sebastian; Rotter, Jerome I; Steinbeck, Gerhard; Launer, Lenore J; Davies, Robert W; Borkovich, Matthew; Harris, Tamara B; Lin, Honghuang; Völker, Uwe; Völzke, Henry; Milan, David J; Hofman, Albert; Boerwinkle, Eric; Chen, Lin Y; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Voight, Benjamin F; Li, Guo; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Kubo, Michiaki; Tedrow, Usha B; Rose, Lynda M; Ridker, Paul M; Conen, David; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Furukawa, Tetsushi; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Xu, Siyan; Kamatani, Naoyuki; Levy, Daniel; Nakamura, Yusuke; Parvez, Babar; Mahida, Saagar; Furie, Karen L; Rosand, Jonathan; Muhammad, Raafia; Psaty, Bruce M; Meitinger, Thomas; Perz, Siegfried; Wichmann, H-Erich; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Kao, W H Linda; Kathiresan, Sekar; Roden, Dan M; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Rivadeneira, Fernando; McKnight, Barbara; Sjögren, Marketa; Newman, Anne B; Liu, Yongmei; Gollob, Michael H; Melander, Olle; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Ch Stricker, Bruno H; Felix, Stephan B; Alonso, Alvaro; Darbar, Dawood; Barnard, John; Chasman, Daniel I; Heckbert, Susan R; Benjamin, Emelia J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Kääb, Stefan

2012-01-01

Atrial fibrillation is a highly prevalent arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and death1. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry, including 6,707 with and 52,426 without atrial fibrillation. Six new atrial fibrillation susceptibility loci were identified and replicated in an additional sample of individuals of European ancestry, including 5,381 subjects with and 1 0,030 subjects without atrial fibrillation (P < 5 × 10−8). Four of the loci identified in Europeans were further replicated in silico in a GWAS of Japanese individuals, including 843 individuals with and 3,350 individuals without atrial fibrillation. The identified loci implicate candidate genes that encode transcription factors related to cardiopulmonary development, cardiac-expressed ion channels and cell signaling molecules. PMID:22544366

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p < 0.0001) and reduction in probing depth (PD) (MD: 1.05 mm; p < 0.00001) were observed for SRP + metronidazole (Mtz), and for SRP + Mtz + amoxicillin (Amx) (MD: 0.45 mm, MD: 0.53 mm, respectively; p < 0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Epidemiology Characteristics, Methodological Assessment and Reporting of Statistical Analysis of Network Meta-Analyses in the Field of Cancer

PubMed Central

Ge, Long; Tian, Jin-hui; Li, Xiu-xia; Song, Fujian; Li, Lun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ge; Pei, Gai-qin; Qiu, Xia; Yang, Ke-hu

2016-01-01

Because of the methodological complexity of network meta-analyses (NMAs), NMAs may be more vulnerable to methodological risks than conventional pair-wise meta-analysis. Our study aims to investigate epidemiology characteristics, conduction of literature search, methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis process in the field of cancer based on PRISMA extension statement and modified AMSTAR checklist. We identified and included 102 NMAs in the field of cancer. 61 NMAs were conducted using a Bayesian framework. Of them, more than half of NMAs did not report assessment of convergence (60.66%). Inconsistency was assessed in 27.87% of NMAs. Assessment of heterogeneity in traditional meta-analyses was more common (42.62%) than in NMAs (6.56%). Most of NMAs did not report assessment of similarity (86.89%) and did not used GRADE tool to assess quality of evidence (95.08%). 43 NMAs were adjusted indirect comparisons, the methods used were described in 53.49% NMAs. Only 4.65% NMAs described the details of handling of multi group trials and 6.98% described the methods of similarity assessment. The median total AMSTAR-score was 8.00 (IQR: 6.00–8.25). Methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis did not substantially differ by selected general characteristics. Overall, the quality of NMAs in the field of cancer was generally acceptable. PMID:27848997

Left ventricular ejection fraction and left atrium diameter related to new-onset atrial fibrillation following acute myocardial infarction: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Rui-Xiang; Chen, Mao-Sheng; Lian, Bao-Tao; Liao, Peng-Da; Zhang, Min-Zhou

2017-10-06

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs frequently in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and is associated with increased subsequent cardiovascular mortality. However, only a few studies directly evaluated the relationship of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or left atrium diameter (LAD) and NOAF following AMI. MEDLINE ® , EMBASE ® and the Cochrane Library were carried out to find studies until January 2017. Pooled mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to evaluate the value of LVEF and LAD in the prediction of NOAF after AMI. We performed sensitivity analyses to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Statistical analyses were carried out using the Revman 5.3. We included 10 qualifying studies comprising a total of 708 patients with NOAF and 6785 controls. Overall, decreased LVEF and increased LAD levels had a significant positive association with NOAF in patients with AMI. The MD in the LVEF levels between the patients with and those without NOAF was -4.91 units (95% Cl: -5.70 to -4.12), test for overall effect z-score = 12.18 ( p < 0.00001, I 2 = 35%). Moreover, in a subgroup analysis, the MD for LAD and NOAF was 2.55 units (95% Cl: 1.91 to 3.19), test for overall effect z-score = 7.80 ( p < 0.00001, I 2 = 57%). Our meta-analysis demonstrated that both decreased LVEF and increased LAD levels were associated with greater risk of NOAF following AMI.

Blood transfusion and risk of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft surgery

PubMed Central

Liu, Shengqun; Li, Zhanwen; Liu, Zhe; Hu, Zhenhua; Zheng, Gaifang

2018-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the effect of blood transfusion (BT) on postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) in adult patients who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases from inception to January 2017 were searched. Cohort studies were searched that evaluated the association between BT and the risk of postoperative AF in adult patients who had undergone CABG surgery. Study quality was assessed by using the Newcastle–Ottawa scale (NOS). A meta-analysis was performed with the random-effect model. Eight cohort studies involving 7401 AF cases and 31,069 participants were identified and included in our data analysis. The pooled odds ratio of postoperative AF in patients with BT was 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26–1.67), with significant heterogeneity (P < .0001, I2 = 79%). Excluding one study that had an off-pump CABG did not significantly impact this result (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.23–1.50; n = 7). To examine the stability of the primary results, we performed subgroup analyses. The association between BT and the risk of postoperative AF was similar, as determined in the stratified analyses conducted according to study design, type of surgery, and country. The findings of the present meta-analysis demonstrated a statistically significant increase in postoperative AF risk among adult patients with BT. Further prospective large-scale studies are needed to establish causality and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. PMID:29517692

Model-based meta-analysis to evaluate optimal doses of direct oral factor Xa inhibitors in atrial fibrillation patients

PubMed Central

Yoshioka, Hideki; Sato, Hiromi; Hatakeyama, Hiroto

2018-01-01

The noninferiority of direct oral factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors (rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) in treatment of atrial fibrillation were demonstrated compared with warfarin by several large clinical trials; however, subsequent meta-analyses reported a higher risk of major bleeding with rivaroxaban than with the other FXa inhibitors. In the present study, we first estimated the changes of prothrombin time (PT) in 5 randomized trials based on reported population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models and then carried out a model-based meta-analysis to obtain models describing the relationship between PT changes and the event rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and of major bleeding. By using the models, we simulated the optimal therapeutic doses for each FXa inhibitor. It was suggested that dose reduction of rivaroxaban from the current 20 mg/d to 10 mg/d would decrease patient deaths from major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.74) with little increase in those for ischemic stroke/SE (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.20). The overall decrease in the mortality caused by both events was estimated as 5.81 per 10 000 patient-years (95% CI, 3.92-8.16), with an HR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91). For apixaban and edoxaban, no distinct change in the overall mortality was simulated by dose modification. This study suggested that the current dose of rivaroxaban might be excessive and would need to be reduced to decrease the excess risk of major bleeding. PMID:29760204

Meta-analyses are no substitute for registered replications: a skeptical perspective on religious priming

PubMed Central

van Elk, Michiel; Matzke, Dora; Gronau, Quentin F.; Guan, Maime; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

According to a recent meta-analysis, religious priming has a positive effect on prosocial behavior (Shariff et al., 2015). We first argue that this meta-analysis suffers from a number of methodological shortcomings that limit the conclusions that can be drawn about the potential benefits of religious priming. Next we present a re-analysis of the religious priming data using two different meta-analytic techniques. A Precision-Effect Testing–Precision-Effect-Estimate with Standard Error (PET-PEESE) meta-analysis suggests that the effect of religious priming is driven solely by publication bias. In contrast, an analysis using Bayesian bias correction suggests the presence of a religious priming effect, even after controlling for publication bias. These contradictory statistical results demonstrate that meta-analytic techniques alone may not be sufficiently robust to firmly establish the presence or absence of an effect. We argue that a conclusive resolution of the debate about the effect of religious priming on prosocial behavior – and about theoretically disputed effects more generally – requires a large-scale, preregistered replication project, which we consider to be the sole remedy for the adverse effects of experimenter bias and publication bias. PMID:26441741

Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

PubMed Central

Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Macdonald, R. Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

2013-01-01

Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication. PMID:23690884

Recent advances in research on climate and human conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.

2014-12-01

A rapidly growing body of empirical, quantitative research examines whether rates of human conflict can be systematically altered by climatic changes. We discuss recent advances in this field, including Bayesian meta-analyses of the effect of temperature and rainfall on current and future large-scale conflicts, the impact of climate variables on gang violence and suicides in Mexico, and probabilistic projections of personal violence and property crime in the United States under RCP scenarios. Criticisms of this research field will also be explained and addressed.

Predictors of warfarin use in atrial fibrillation in the United States: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite warfarin's marked efficacy, not all eligible patients receive it for stroke prevention in AF. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the association between prescriber and/or patient characteristics and subsequent prescription of warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods Observational studies conducted in the US using multivariate analysis to determine the relationship between characteristics and the odds of receiving warfarin for stroke prevention were identified in MEDLINE, EMBASE and a manual review of references. Effect estimates of prescriber and/or patient characteristics from individual studies were pooled to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals. Results Twenty-eight studies reporting results of 33 unique multivariate analyses were identified. Warfarin use across studies ranged from 9.1%-79.8% (median = 49.1%). There was a moderately-strong correlation between warfarin use and year of study (r = 0.60, p = 0.002). Upon meta-analysis, characteristics associated with a statistically significant increase in the odds of warfarin use included history of cerebrovascular accident (OR = 1.59), heart failure (OR = 1.36), and male gender (OR = 1.12). Those associated with a significant reduction in the odds of warfarin use included alcohol/drug abuse (OR = 0.62), perceived barriers to compliance (OR = 0.87), contraindication(s) to warfarin (OR = 0.81), dementia (OR = 0.32), falls (OR = 0.60), gastrointestinal hemorrhage (OR = 0.47), intracranial hemorrhage (OR = 0.39), hepatic (OR = 0.59), and renal impairment (OR = 0.69). While age per 10-year increase (OR = 0.78) and advancing age as a dichotomized variable (cut-off varied by study) (OR = 0.57) were associated with significant reductions in warfarin use; qualitative review of results of studies evaluating age as a categorical variable did not confirm this relationship. Conclusions Warfarin use has increased somewhat over time. The decision to prescribe warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation is based upon multiple prescriber and patient characteristics. These findings can be used by family practice prescribers and other healthcare decision-makers to target interventions or methods to improve utilization of warfarin when it is indicated for stroke prevention. PMID:22304704

Platelets Cellular and Functional Characteristics in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Weymann, Alexander; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Sabashnikov, Anton; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Testa, Luca; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Liu, Tong; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Yavuz, Senol; de Oliveira Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros; Baker, William L.; Jang, Jae-Sik; Gong, Mengqi; Benedetto, Umberto; Dohmen, Pascal M.; D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Deshmukh, Abhishek J.; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Calkins, Hugh; Stone, Gregg W.

2017-01-01

Background This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of platelet cellular and functional characteristics including platelet count (PC), MPV, platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet factor 4, beta thromboglobulin (BTG), and p-selectin with the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and consequent stroke. Material/Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating platelet characteristics in patients with paroxysmal, persistent and permanent atrial fibrillations. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. Results Literature search of all major databases retrieved 1,676 studies. After screening, a total of 73 studies were identified. Pooled analysis showed significant differences in PC (weighted mean difference (WMD)=−26.93 and p<0.001), MPV (WMD=0.61 and p<0.001), PDW (WMD=−0.22 and p=0.002), BTG (WMD=24.69 and p<0.001), PF4 (WMD=4.59 and p<0.001), and p-selectin (WMD=4.90 and p<0.001). Conclusions Platelets play a critical and precipitating role in the occurrence of AF. Whereas distribution width of platelets as well as factors of platelet activity was significantly greater in AF patients compared to SR patients, platelet count was significantly lower in AF patients. PMID:28302997

Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

PubMed Central

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

Accuracy of methods for detecting an irregular pulse and suspected atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Taggar, Jaspal S; Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah; Heneghan, Carl; Jones, Matthew

2016-08-01

Pulse palpation has been recommended as the first step of screening to detect atrial fibrillation. We aimed to determine and compare the accuracy of different methods for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and LILACS until 16 March 2015. Two reviewers identified eligible studies, extracted data and appraised quality using the QUADAS-2 instrument. Meta-analysis, using the bivariate hierarchical random effects method, determined average operating points for sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR, NLR); we constructed summary receiver operating characteristic plots. Twenty-one studies investigated 39 interventions (n = 15,129 pulse assessments) for detecting atrial fibrillation. Compared to 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) diagnosed atrial fibrillation, blood pressure monitors (BPMs; seven interventions) and non-12-lead ECGs (20 interventions) had the greatest accuracy for detecting pulse irregularities attributable to atrial fibrillation (BPM: sensitivity 0.98 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.00), specificity 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.95), PLR 12.1 (95% CI 8.2-17.8) and NLR 0.02 (95% CI 0.00-0.09); non-12-lead ECG: sensitivity 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.94), specificity 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.97), PLR 20.1 (95% CI 12-33.7), NLR 0.09 (95% CI 0.06-0.14)). There were similar findings for smartphone applications (six interventions) although these studies were small in size. The sensitivity and specificity of pulse palpation (six interventions) were 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.76-0.88), respectively (PLR 5.2 (95% CI 3.8-7.2), NLR 0.1 (95% CI 0.05-0.18)). BPMs and non-12-lead ECG were most accurate for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation; other technologies may therefore be pragmatic alternatives to pulse palpation for the first step of atrial fibrillation screening. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Patent foramen ovale closure vs medical therapy for stroke prevention: meta-analysis of randomized trials and review of heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Udell, Jacob A; Opotowsky, Alexander R; Khairy, Paul; Silversides, Candice K; Gladstone, David J; O'Gara, Patrick T; Landzberg, Michael J

2014-10-01

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) might be a risk factor for unexplained ("cryptogenic") stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We sought to determine the efficacy and safety of transcatheter PFO closure compared with antithrombotic therapy for secondary prevention of cerebrovascular events among patients with cryptogenic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of MedLine and Embase (from inception to March 2013) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared transcatheter PFO closure with medical therapy in subjects with cryptogenic stroke. Data were independently extracted on trial conduct quality, baseline characteristics, efficacy, and safety events from published articles and appendices. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the composite of stroke or TIA, and adverse cardiovascular events including atrial fibrillation/flutter were constructed. Three RCTs of 2303 subjects with previous stroke, TIA, or systemic arterial embolism (mean age, 45.7 years; 47.3% women; mean follow-up, 2.6 years) were included. PFO closure did not significantly reduce the risk of recurrent stroke/TIA (3.7% vs 5.2%; RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.50-1.07; P = 0.10); however, an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation/flutter was detected (3.8% vs 1.0%; RR, 3.67; 95% CI, 1.95-6.89; P < 0.0001). No significant heterogeneity was detected for any end point among subgroups of patients stratified according to age, sex, index cardiovascular event, device type, interatrial shunt size, and presence of an atrial septal aneurysm (all P interactions ≥ 0.09). Meta-analysis of RCTs that assessed transcatheter PFO closure for secondary prevention of cerebrovascular events in subjects with cryptogenic stroke does not demonstrate benefit compared with antithrombotic therapy, and suggests potential risks. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun

2017-07-14

Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison. SEM provides a very flexible framework for univariate and multivariate meta-analysis, and its potential as a powerful tool for advanced meta-analysis is still to be explored.

Rhythm vs. rate control of atrial fibrillation meta-analysed by number needed to treat.

PubMed

Kumana, Cyrus R; Cheung, Bernard M Y; Cheung, Giselle T Y; Ovedal, Tori; Pederson, Bjorn; Lauder, Ian J

2005-10-01

Whenever feasible, rhythm control of atrial fibrillation (AF) was generally preferred over rate control, in the belief that it offered better symptomatic relief and quality of life, and eliminated the need for anticoagulation. However, recent trials appear to challenge these assumptions. To explore the desirability of rhythm vs. rate control of AF by systematic review of pertinent, published, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and a meta-analysis by number needed to treat (NNT) year(-1), with respect to diverse clinically important outcomes. RCTs of outcome primarily comparing rate vs. rhythm control in patients with spontaneous AF were identified. For each outcome and assuming rhythm control to be the active treatment, relative risk reduction (RRR) and NNT year(-1) were derived for individual trials together with an NNT year(-1) for all trials combined; corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were also calculated. Adverse drug reaction (ADR) and quality of life reporting were also assessed. In all, data from five suitable RCTs (entailing 5239 patients) were analysed. For hospitalization, available RRRs and NNT year(-1) values were all clinically and statistically significant. Overall, one additional patient was hospitalized for every 35 assigned to rhythm control (95% CI 27, 48). For the endpoints of death, 'ischaemic' stroke and 'non-CNS' bleeding, there was no significant difference. ADRs were significantly more common in rhythm control patients, whereas quality of life assessments revealed no difference. Thromboembolism was associated with cessation of or subtherapeutic anticoagulation, irrespective of treatment assignment. Reduced risk of hospitalization and non-inferiority for other endpoints all favour rate control, the less costly strategy. If symptoms of AF are not a problem, treatment should target optimizing rate control and more widespread and effective prophylactic anticoagulation.

Analysis and meta-analysis of single-case designs: an introduction.

PubMed

Shadish, William R

2014-04-01

The last 10 years have seen great progress in the analysis and meta-analysis of single-case designs (SCDs). This special issue includes five articles that provide an overview of current work on that topic, including standardized mean difference statistics, multilevel models, Bayesian statistics, and generalized additive models. Each article analyzes a common example across articles and presents syntax or macros for how to do them. These articles are followed by commentaries from single-case design researchers and journal editors. This introduction briefly describes each article and then discusses several issues that must be addressed before we can know what analyses will eventually be best to use in SCD research. These issues include modeling trend, modeling error covariances, computing standardized effect size estimates, assessing statistical power, incorporating more accurate models of outcome distributions, exploring whether Bayesian statistics can improve estimation given the small samples common in SCDs, and the need for annotated syntax and graphical user interfaces that make complex statistics accessible to SCD researchers. The article then discusses reasons why SCD researchers are likely to incorporate statistical analyses into their research more often in the future, including changing expectations and contingencies regarding SCD research from outside SCD communities, changes and diversity within SCD communities, corrections of erroneous beliefs about the relationship between SCD research and statistics, and demonstrations of how statistics can help SCD researchers better meet their goals. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Multidisciplinary meeting about the use of direct oral anticoagulants in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation].

PubMed

Rodríguez-Reyes, Humberto; Arauz-Góngora, Antonio; Asensio-Lafuente, Enrique; Celaya-Cota, Manuel de Jesús; Cordero-Cabra, Alejandro; Guevara-Valdivia, Milton; Izaguirre-Avila, Raúl; Lara-Vaca, Susano; Mariona-Moreno, Vitelio; Martínez-Flores, Enrique; Nava-Townsend, Santiago; Pozas-Garza, Gerardo; Rodríguez-Diez, Gerardo

Knowing the real impact of atrial fibrillation in the stroke, the Sociedad Mexicana of Electrofisiología y Estimulación Cardiaca (SOMEEC) had the initiative to develop a multidisciplinary meeting of experts the with the purpose to update the available scientific evidence from clinical practice guidelines, meta-analyses, controlled clinical trials, and complementing with the experience and views of a group of experts. To meet this goal, SOMEEC gathered a group of specialists in the area of cardiology, electrophysiology, neurology and hematology that given their experience in certain areas, they share the scientific evidence with the panel of experts to leave open a discussion about the information presented in this article. This document brings together the best scientific evidence available and aims to be a useful tool in the decision to use of new oral anticoagulants in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and ischemic heart disease, or relating to the management of patients with stroke or renal failure, and even those that will be submitted to elective surgery and invasive procedures. In the same, they handled comparative schemes of follow-up and treatment which simplifies the decision making by the specialists participants. Copyright © 2016 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Which is best for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures: balloon kyphoplasty, percutaneous vertebroplasty or non-surgical treatment? A study protocol for a Bayesian network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kan, Shun-Li; Yuan, Zhi-Fang; Chen, Ling-Xiao; Sun, Jing-Cheng; Ning, Guang-Zhi; Feng, Shi-Qing

2017-01-01

Introduction Osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) commonly cause both acute and chronic back pain, substantial spinal deformity, functional disability and decreased quality of life and increase the risk of future vertebral fractures and mortality. Percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP), balloon kyphoplasty (BK) and non-surgical treatment (NST) are mostly used for the treatment of OVCFs. However, which treatment is preferred is unknown. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively review the literature and ascertain the relative efficacy and safety of BK, PVP and NST for patients with OVCFs using a Bayesian network meta-analysis. Methods and analysis We will comprehensively search PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, to include randomided controlled trials that compare BK, PVP or NST for treating OVCFs. The risk of bias for individual studies will be assessed according to the Cochrane Handbook. Bayesian network meta-analysis will be performed to compare the efficacy and safety of BK, PVP and NST. The quality of evidence will be evaluated by GRADE. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval and patient consent are not required since this study is a meta-analysis based on published studies. The results of this network meta-analysis will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. PROSPERO registration number CRD42016039452; Pre-results. PMID:28093431

Efficacy of nonvenous medications for acute convulsive seizures

PubMed Central

Kothari, Harsh; Zhang, Zongjun; Han, Baoguang; Horn, Paul S.; Glauser, Tracy A.

2015-01-01

Objective: This is a network meta-analysis of nonvenous drugs used in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for treatment of acute convulsive seizures and convulsive status epilepticus. Methods: Literature was searched according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for RCTs examining treatment of acute convulsive seizures or status epilepticus with at least one of the study arms being a nonvenous medication. After demographic and outcome data extraction, a Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed and efficacy results were summarized using treatment effects and their credible intervals (CrI). We also calculated the probability of each route–drug combination being the most clinically effective for a given outcome, and provided their Bayesian hierarchical ranking. Results: This meta-analysis of 16 studies found that intramuscular midazolam (IM-MDZ) is superior to other nonvenous medications regarding time to seizure termination after administration (2.145 minutes, 95% CrI 1.308–3.489), time to seizure cessation after arrival in the hospital (3.841 minutes, 95% CrI 2.697–5.416), and time to initiate treatment (0.779 minutes, 95% CrI 0.495–1.221). Additionally, intranasal midazolam (IN-MDZ) was adjudged most efficacious for seizure cessation within 10 minutes of administration (90.4% of participants, 95% CrI 79.4%–96.9%), and persistent seizure cessation for ≥1 hour (78.5% of participants, 95% CrI 59.5%–92.1%). Paucity of RCTs produced evidence gaps resulting in small networks, routes/drugs included in some networks but not others, and some trials not being connected to any network. Conclusions: Despite the evidence gaps, IM-MDZ and IN-MDZ exhibit the best efficacy data for the nonvenous treatment of acute convulsive seizures or status epilepticus. PMID:26511448

Antiarrhythmics for maintaining sinus rhythm after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Lafuente-Lafuente, Carmelo; Valembois, Lucie; Bergmann, Jean-François; Belmin, Joël

2015-03-28

Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent sustained arrhythmia. Atrial fibrillation frequently recurs after restoration of normal sinus rhythm. Antiarrhythmic drugs have been widely used to prevent recurrence, but the effect of these drugs on mortality and other clinical outcomes is unclear. This is an update of a review previously published in 2008 and 2012. To determine in patients who have recovered sinus rhythm after having atrial fibrillation, the effects of long-term treatment with antiarrhythmic drugs on death, stroke, embolism, drug adverse effects and recurrence of atrial fibrillation. We updated the searches of CENTRAL in The Cochrane Library (2013, Issue 12 of 12), MEDLINE (to January 2014) and EMBASE (to January 2014). The reference lists of retrieved articles, recent reviews and meta-analyses were checked. Two independent authors selected randomised controlled trials comparing any antiarrhythmic drug with a control (no treatment, placebo, drugs for rate control) or with another antiarrhythmic drug in adults who had atrial fibrillation and in whom sinus rhythm was restored. Post-operative atrial fibrillation was excluded. Two authors independently assessed quality and extracted data. Studies were pooled, if appropriate, using Peto odds ratio (OR). All results were calculated at one year of follow-up. In this update three new studies, with 534 patients, were included making a total of 59 included studies comprising 21,305 patients. All included studies were randomised controlled trials. Allocation concealment was adequate in 17 trials, it was unclear in the remaining 42 trials. Risk of bias was assessed in all domains only in the trials included in this update.Compared with controls, class IA drugs quinidine and disopyramide (OR 2.39, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03 to 5.59, number needed to treat to harm (NNTH) 109, 95% CI 34 to 4985) and sotalol (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.50, NNTH 169, 95% CI 60 to 2068) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Other antiarrhythmics did not seem to modify mortality, but our data could be underpowered to detect mild increases in mortality for several of the drugs studied.Several class IA (disopyramide, quinidine), IC (flecainide, propafenone) and III (amiodarone, dofetilide, dronedarone, sotalol) drugs significantly reduced recurrence of atrial fibrillation (OR 0.19 to 0.70, number needed to treat to beneft (NNTB) 3 to 16). Beta-blockers (metoprolol) also significantly reduced atrial fibrillation recurrences (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.88, NNTB 9).All analysed drugs increased withdrawals due to adverse affects and all but amiodarone, dronedarone and propafenone increased pro-arrhythmia. Only 11 trials reported data on stroke. None of them found any significant difference with the exception of a single trial than found less strokes in the group treated with dronedarone compared to placebo. This finding was not confirmed in others studies on dronedarone.We could not analyse heart failure and use of anticoagulation because few original studies reported on these measures. Several class IA, IC and III drugs, as well as class II drugs (beta-blockers), are moderately effective in maintaining sinus rhythm after conversion of atrial fibrillation. However, they increase adverse events, including pro-arrhythmia, and some of them (disopyramide, quinidine and sotalol) may increase mortality. Possible benefits on clinically relevant outcomes (stroke, embolism, heart failure) remain to be established.

Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

PubMed

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

2018-03-01

Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Antibiotics in aggressive periodontitis, is there a clinical benefit?

PubMed

Rajendra, Anjana; Spivakovsky, Silvia

2016-12-01

Data sourcesMedline, Embase and CENTRAL databases were searched up to December 2014. Unpublished data were sought by searching a database listing unpublished studies OpenGray [http://www.opengrey.eu/], formerly OpenSIGLE.Study selectionRandomised clinical trials assessing treatment of patients with AgP comparing scaling and root planing (SRP) alone with SRP plus a single antibiotic or a combination of drugs with a minimum of three months follow-up were considered. Studies specifically designed to evaluate smokers or subjects with diabetes mellitus and HIV/AIDS were not included.Data extraction and synthesisTwo researchers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts of the search results. The studies, which fulfilled inclusion criteria, underwent validity assessment and data extraction using a specifically designed form. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Cochranes collaboration tool for risk of bias. Only two of the 11 included trials were considered at a low risk of bias. The data extracted from ten studies was analysed by pair-wise meta-analyses and the data extracted from five studies was included in Bayesian network meta-analyses pooled estimates. The six studies evaluated in the pairwise meta-analyses were excluded in the pooled estimates because four studies included patients with advanced disease only and one study did not present average data for pocket depth (PD) and clinical attachment level (CAL) and another one for using a different mechanical treatment.ResultsFourteen studies reporting 11 randomised clinical trials with a total of 388 patients were included in the review. Nine of 11 studies reported a statistically significant greater gain in full mouth mean clinical attachment (CA) and reduction in probing depth (PD) when a systemic antibiotic was used. From those studies the calculated mean difference for CA gained was 1.08 mm (p < 0.0001) and for PD reduction was 1.05 mm (p< 0.00001) for SRP + Metronidazole (Mtz). For SRP + Mtz+ amoxicillin (Amx) group the mean difference was 0.45 mm for CA gained and 0.53 mm for PD reduction (p<0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed some additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics.ConclusionsThe results support a statistically significant benefit of adjunctive systemic antibiotics in the treatment of AgP. The most consistent advantages - reduction in PD and CAL gain - were attained with the use of Mtz and Mtz + Amx. Future RCTs should be designed in order to directly compare these two antibiotic protocols in the treatment of AgP.

Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager: An Advanced Computer Program for Decision Support for Drug Dosing and Therapeutic Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lenert, Leslie; Lurie, Jon; Coleman, Robert; Klosterman, Heidrun; Blaschke, Terrence

1990-01-01

In this paper, we will describe an advanced drug dosing program, Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager that reasons using Bayesian pharmacokinetic modeling and symbolic modeling of patient status and drug response. Our design is similar to the design of the Digitalis Therapy Advisor program, but extends previous work by incorporating a Bayesian pharmacokinetic model, a “meta-level” analysis of drug concentrations to identify sampling errors and changes in pharmacokinetics, and including the results of the “meta-level” analysis in reasoning for dosing and therapeutic monitoring recommendations. The program is user friendly and runs on low cost general-purpose hardware. Validation studies show that the program is as accurate in predicting future drug concentrations as an expert using commercial Bayesian forecasting software.

Blast-related mild traumatic brain injury: a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis on the cognitive outcomes of concussion among military personnel.

PubMed

Karr, Justin E; Areshenkoff, Corson N; Duggan, Emily C; Garcia-Barrera, Mauricio A

2014-12-01

Throughout their careers, many soldiers experience repeated blasts exposures from improvised explosive devices, which often involve head injury. Consequentially, blast-related mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) has become prevalent in modern conflicts, often occuring co-morbidly with psychiatric illness (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD]). In turn, a growing body of research has begun to explore the cognitive and psychiatric sequelae of blast-related mTBI. The current meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the chronic effects of blast-related mTBI on cognitive performance. A systematic review identified 9 studies reporting 12 samples meeting eligibility criteria. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was conducted with cognitive construct and PTSD symptoms explored as moderators. The overall posterior mean effect size and Highest Density Interval (HDI) came to d = -0.12 [-0.21, -0.04], with executive function (-0.16 [-0.31, 0.00]), verbal delayed memory (-0.19 [-0.44, 0.06]) and processing speed (-0.11 [-0.26, 0.01]) presenting as the most sensitive cognitive domains to blast-related mTBI. When dividing executive function into diverse sub-constructs (i.e., working memory, inhibition, set-shifting), set-shifting presented the largest effect size (-0.33 [-0.55, -0.05]). PTSD symptoms did not predict cognitive effects sizes, β PTSD  = -0.02 [-0.23, 0.20]. The results indicate a subtle, but chronic cognitive impairment following mTBI, especially in set-shifting, a relevant aspect of executive attention. These findings are consistent with past meta-analyses on multiple mTBI and correspond with past neuroimaging research on the cognitive correlates of white matter damage common in mTBI. However, all studies had cross-sectional designs, which resulted in universally low quality ratings and limited the conclusions inferable from this meta-analysis.

Bisphosphonates and risk of atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Introduction Bisphosphonates are the most commonly used drugs for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. Although a recent FDA review of the results of clinical trials reported no clear link between bisphosphonates and serious or non-serious atrial fibrillation (AF), some epidemiologic studies have suggested an association between AF and bisphosphonates. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of non-experimental studies to evaluate the risk of AF associated with bisphosphonates. Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE using a combination of the Medical Subject Headings and keywords. Our search was limited to English language articles. The pooled estimates of odds ratios (OR) as a measure of effect size were calculated using a random effects model. Results Seven eligible studies with 266,761 patients were identified: three cohort, three case-control, and one self-controlled case series. Bisphosphonate exposure was not associated with an increased risk of AF [pooled multivariate OR 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.16] after adjusting for known risk factors. Moderate heterogeneity was noted (I-squared score = 62.8%). Stratified analyses by study design, cohort versus case-control studies, yielded similar results. Egger's and Begg's tests did not suggest an evidence of publication bias (P = 0.90, 1.00 respectively). No clear asymmetry was observed in the funnel plot analysis. Few studies compared risk between bisphosphonates or by dosing. Conclusions Our study did not find an association between bisphosphonate exposure and AF. This finding is consistent with the FDA's statement. PMID:20170505

Accuracy of methods for detecting an irregular pulse and suspected atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah; Heneghan, Carl; Jones, Matthew

2015-01-01

Background Pulse palpation has been recommended as the first step of screening to detect atrial fibrillation. We aimed to determine and compare the accuracy of different methods for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and LILACS until 16 March 2015. Two reviewers identified eligible studies, extracted data and appraised quality using the QUADAS-2 instrument. Meta-analysis, using the bivariate hierarchical random effects method, determined average operating points for sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR, NLR); we constructed summary receiver operating characteristic plots. Results Twenty-one studies investigated 39 interventions (n = 15,129 pulse assessments) for detecting atrial fibrillation. Compared to 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) diagnosed atrial fibrillation, blood pressure monitors (BPMs; seven interventions) and non-12-lead ECGs (20 interventions) had the greatest accuracy for detecting pulse irregularities attributable to atrial fibrillation (BPM: sensitivity 0.98 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92–1.00), specificity 0.92 (95% CI 0.88–0.95), PLR 12.1 (95% CI 8.2–17.8) and NLR 0.02 (95% CI 0.00–0.09); non-12-lead ECG: sensitivity 0.91 (95% CI 0.86–0.94), specificity 0.95 (95% CI 0.92–0.97), PLR 20.1 (95% CI 12–33.7), NLR 0.09 (95% CI 0.06–0.14)). There were similar findings for smartphone applications (six interventions) although these studies were small in size. The sensitivity and specificity of pulse palpation (six interventions) were 0.92 (95% CI 0.85–0.96) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.88), respectively (PLR 5.2 (95% CI 3.8–7.2), NLR 0.1 (95% CI 0.05–0.18)). Conclusions BPMs and non-12-lead ECG were most accurate for detecting pulse irregularities caused by atrial fibrillation; other technologies may therefore be pragmatic alternatives to pulse palpation for the first step of atrial fibrillation screening. PMID:26464292

The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for predicting ischemic stroke among East Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiong, Qinmei; Chen, Sisi; Senoo, Keitaro; Proietti, Marco; Hong, Kui; Lip, Gregory Y H

2015-09-15

Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated in Western populations for predicting risk of stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is some uncertainty as to which risk score is best to guide optimal anticoagulant therapy among Asian populations with AF. A systemic literature search of Cochrane library, Scopus, and PubMed databases was conducted using search terms: atrial fibrillation, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. Stroke/thromboembolism (TE) outcome events at low, moderate, and high risk groups were compared in relation to both scores. Statistical analyses were performed using Revman 5.3 software. 493 records were retrieved, of which 6 cohort studies focusing on patients from Asian regions were finally appraised and included. Absolute event rates were usually lower when patients were categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc of 0-1, rather than CHADS2 of 0-1, respectively. Meta-analysis revealed that when compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, there was a 1.71-fold elevated risk of stroke when patients were stratified as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score = 0, or a 1.40-fold increase with a CHADS2 score = 1. A 1.19-fold elevated event rate was observed among CHADS2 score ≥ 2 compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, but the total stroke/TE events were numerically higher in patients categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is superior to the CHADS2 score in identifying 'low risk' East Asian AF patients. Rather than a categorical approach, Asian guidelines should adopt a 2 step approach, by initially identifying the truly low risk patients, following which effective stroke prevention can be offered to those with ≥ 1 additional stroke risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preventive Strategies for Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Procedures: Evidence From a Hierarchical Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of 124 Trials and 28 240 Patients.

PubMed

Giacoppo, Daniele; Gargiulo, Giuseppe; Buccheri, Sergio; Aruta, Patrizia; Byrne, Robert A; Cassese, Salvatore; Dangas, George; Kastrati, Adnan; Mehran, Roxana; Tamburino, Corrado; Capodanno, Davide

2017-05-01

The effectiveness of currently available effective preventive strategies for contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CIAKI) is a matter of debate. We performed a Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis of 124 trials (28 240 patients) comparing a total of 10 strategies: saline, statin, N-acetylcysteine (NAC), sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ), NAC+NaHCO 3 , ascorbic acid, xanthine, dopaminergic agent, peripheral ischemic preconditioning, and natriuretic peptide. Compared with saline, the risk of CIAKI was reduced by using statin (odds ratio [OR], 0.42; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.26-0.67), xanthine (OR, 0.32; 95% CrI, 0.17-0.57), ischemic preconditioning (OR, 0.48; 95% CrI, 0.26-0.87), NAC+NaHCO 3 (OR, 0.50; 95% CrI, 0.33-0.76), NAC (OR, 0.68; 95% CrI, 0.55-0.84), and NaHCO 3 (OR, 0.66; 95% CrI, 0.47-0.90). The benefit of statin therapy was consistent across multiple sensitivity analyses, whereas the efficacy of all the other strategies was questioned by restricting the analysis to high-quality trials. Overall, high heterogeneity was observed for comparisons involving xanthine and ischemic preconditioning, although the impact of NAC and xanthine was probably influenced by publication bias/small-study effect. Hydration alone was the least effective preventive strategy for CIAKI. Meta-regressions did not reveal significant associations with baseline creatinine and contrast volume. In patients with diabetes mellitus, no strategy was found to reduce the incidence of CIAKI. In patients undergoing percutaneous coronary procedures, statin administration is associated with a marked and consistent reduction in the risk of CIAKI compared with saline. Although xanthine, NAC, NaHCO 3 , NAC+NaHCO 3 , ischemic preconditioning, and natriuretic peptide may have nephroprotective effects, these results were not consistent across multiple sensitivity analyses. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Real medical benefit assessed by indirect comparison.

PubMed

Falissard, Bruno; Zylberman, Myriam; Cucherat, Michel; Izard, Valérie; Meyer, François

2009-01-01

Frequently, in data packages submitted for Marketing Approval to the CHMP, there is a lack of relevant head-to-head comparisons of medicinal products that could enable national authorities responsible for the approval of reimbursement to assess the Added Therapeutic Value (ASMR) of new clinical entities or line extensions of existing therapies.Indirect or mixed treatment comparisons (MTC) are methods stemming from the field of meta-analysis that have been designed to tackle this problem. Adjusted indirect comparisons, meta-regressions, mixed models, Bayesian network analyses pool results of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), enabling a quantitative synthesis.The REAL procedure, recently developed by the HAS (French National Authority for Health), is a mixture of an MTC and effect model based on expert opinions. It is intended to translate the efficacy observed in the trials into effectiveness expected in day-to-day clinical practice in France.

Relations of Anticoagulant Therapy with Cognitive Impairment among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review.

PubMed

Cheng, Wenke; Liu, Weijun; Li, Bin; Li, Dongfang

2018-03-02

Currently, it is considered that atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for cognitive impairment and dementia, which is independent of stroke. However, the relationship between anticoagulant drugs and cognitive function in patients with atrial fibrillation is unknown. This study aimed to complete a meta-analysis, and investigate the association between Anticoagulant therapy and cognitive impairment in patients undergoing AF. Two investigators systematically searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase databases and Web of Science for all studies showing associations. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted and pooled. 8 studies included 471057 participants; TTR < 25% vs TTR> 75%; (HR 3.02, 95% CI 1.12-8.91; P=0.03); TTR 25-50% vs TTR> 75% (HR 2.44, 95% CI 0.95-6.22; P=0.06); TTR 50-75% vs TTR> 75% (HR 1.75, 95% CI 0.90-3.99; P=0.1); OAC vs No OAC (HR 0.71, 95% CI.69-0.74; P<0.00001) NOAC vs warfarin (HR0.51, 95% CI0.37-0.71; P<0.00001). Oral anticoagulants (OAC) significantly reduce the occurrence of cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation. Compared with warfarin, NOAC has an efficiently protective effect on cognition. In the range of INR2-3, with the increase of TTR, the incidence of cognitive impairment is lower.

A comparison of discontinuation rates of tofacitinib and biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Park, Sun-Kyeong; Lee, Min-Young; Jang, Eun-Jin; Kim, Hye-Lin; Ha, Dong-Mun; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the discontinuation rates of tofacitinib and biologics (tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), abatacept, rituximab, and tocilizumab) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients considering inadequate responses (IRs) to previous treatment(s). Randomised controlled trials of tofacitinib and biologics - reporting at least one total discontinuation, discontinuation due to lack of efficacy (LOE), and discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) - were identified through systematic review. The analyses were conducted for patients with IRs to conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (cDMARDs) and for patients with biologics-IR, separately. Bayesian network meta-analysis was used to estimate rate ratio (RR) of a biologic relative to tofacitinib with 95% credible interval (CrI), and probability of RR being <1 (P[RR<1]). The analyses of 34 studies showed no significant differences in discontinuation rates between tofacitinib and biologics in the cDMARDs-IR group. In the biologics-IR group, however, TNFi (RR 0.17, 95% CrI 0.01-3.61, P[RR<1] 92.0%) and rituximab (RR 0.20, 95% CrI 0.01-2.91, P[RR<1] 92.3%) showed significantly lower total discontinuation rates than tofacitinib did. Despite the difference, discontinuation cases owing to LOE and AEs revealed that tofacitinib was comparable to the biologics. The comparability of discontinuation rate between tofacitinib and biologics was different based on previous treatments and discontinuation reasons: LOE, AEs, and total (due to other reasons). Therefore, those factors need to be considered to decide the optimal treatment strategy.

The choice of prior distribution for a covariance matrix in multivariate meta-analysis: a simulation study.

PubMed

Hurtado Rúa, Sandra M; Mazumdar, Madhu; Strawderman, Robert L

2015-12-30

Bayesian meta-analysis is an increasingly important component of clinical research, with multivariate meta-analysis a promising tool for studies with multiple endpoints. Model assumptions, including the choice of priors, are crucial aspects of multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis (MBMA) models. In a given model, two different prior distributions can lead to different inferences about a particular parameter. A simulation study was performed in which the impact of families of prior distributions for the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal random effects MBMA model was analyzed. Inferences about effect sizes were not particularly sensitive to prior choice, but the related covariance estimates were. A few families of prior distributions with small relative biases, tight mean squared errors, and close to nominal coverage for the effect size estimates were identified. Our results demonstrate the need for sensitivity analysis and suggest some guidelines for choosing prior distributions in this class of problems. The MBMA models proposed here are illustrated in a small meta-analysis example from the periodontal field and a medium meta-analysis from the study of stroke. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clarifying the debate on population-based screening for breast cancer with mammography

PubMed Central

Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Gordon, Paula; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Chang, King-Jen; Lee, Won-Chul; Yeoh, Khay Guan; Saito, Hiroshi; Promthet, Supannee; Hamashima, Chisato; Maidin, Alimin; Robinson, Fredie; Zhao, Li-Zhong

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: The recent controversy about using mammography to screen for breast cancer based on randomized controlled trials over 3 decades in Western countries has not only eclipsed the paradigm of evidence-based medicine, but also puts health decision-makers in countries where breast cancer screening is still being considered in a dilemma to adopt or abandon such a well-established screening modality. Methods: We reanalyzed the empirical data from the Health Insurance Plan trial in 1963 to the UK age trial in 1991 and their follow-up data published until 2015. We first performed Bayesian conjugated meta-analyses on the heterogeneity of attendance rate, sensitivity, and over-detection and their impacts on advanced stage breast cancer and death from breast cancer across trials using Bayesian Poisson fixed- and random-effect regression model. Bayesian meta-analysis of causal model was then developed to assess a cascade of causal relationships regarding the impact of both attendance and sensitivity on 2 main outcomes. Results: The causes of heterogeneity responsible for the disparities across the trials were clearly manifested in 3 components. The attendance rate ranged from 61.3% to 90.4%. The sensitivity estimates show substantial variation from 57.26% to 87.97% but improved with time from 64% in 1963 to 82% in 1980 when Bayesian conjugated meta-analysis was conducted in chronological order. The percentage of over-detection shows a wide range from 0% to 28%, adjusting for long lead-time. The impacts of the attendance rate and sensitivity on the 2 main outcomes were statistically significant. Causal inference made by linking these causal relationships with emphasis on the heterogeneity of the attendance rate and sensitivity accounted for the variation in the reduction of advanced breast cancer (none-30%) and of mortality (none-31%). We estimated a 33% (95% CI: 24–42%) and 13% (95% CI: 6–20%) breast cancer mortality reduction for the best scenario (90% attendance rate and 95% sensitivity) and the poor scenario (30% attendance rate and 55% sensitivity), respectively. Conclusion: Elucidating the scenarios from high to low performance and learning from the experiences of these trials helps screening policy-makers contemplate on how to avoid errors made in ineffective studies and emulate the effective studies to save women lives. PMID:28099330

A Bayesian Missing Data Framework for Generalized Multiple Outcome Mixed Treatment Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Hwanhee; Chu, Haitao; Zhang, Jing; Carlin, Bradley P.

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistical approaches to mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) are becoming more popular because of their flexibility and interpretability. Many randomized clinical trials report multiple outcomes with possible inherent correlations. Moreover, MTC data are typically sparse (although richer than standard meta-analysis, comparing only two…

Detection and management of atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke or embolic stroke of undetermined source.

PubMed

Sanna, Tommaso; Ziegler, Paul D; Crea, Filippo

2018-03-01

Cryptogenic stroke (CS) and embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS) represent a major challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is commonly found after CS or ESUS. Independent of the mechanism of the index CS or ESUS, detection of AF in these patients offers the opportunity to reduce the risk of stroke recurrence by prescribing an anticoagulant instead of aspirin. The detection of AF may be pursued with different monitoring strategies. Comparison of monitoring strategies should take into account that AF detection rates reported in published studies, and then pooled in meta-analyses, are not only a function of the monitoring strategy itself, but also depend on patient-related, device-related, and study design-related factors. Once AF is found, the decision to anticoagulate a patient should be made on the basis of AF burden and the baseline risk of the patient. Empirical anticoagulation in patients with ESUS and no evidence of AF is an intriguing but still-unproven strategy and therefore should not be adopted outside of randomized clinical trials. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Alcohol Use on HCV-Treatment Outcomes with a Comparison of Resampling Methods to Assess Uncertainty in Parameter Estimates.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cauthen, Katherine Regina; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Finley, Patrick D.

There is mounting evidence that alcohol use is significantly linked to lower HCV treatment response rates in interferon-based therapies, though some of the evidence is conflicting. Furthermore, although health care providers recommend reducing or abstaining from alcohol use prior to treatment, many patients do not succeed in doing so. The goal of this meta-analysis was to systematically review and summarize the Englishlanguage literature up through January 30, 2015 regarding the relationship between alcohol use and HCV treatment outcomes, among patients who were not required to abstain from alcohol use in order to receive treatment. Seven pertinent articles studying 1,751 HCV-infectedmore » patients were identified. Log-ORs of HCV treatment response for heavy alcohol use and light alcohol use were calculated and compared. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analytic model to accommodate the small sample size. The summary estimate for the log-OR of HCV treatment response was -0.775 with a 95% credible interval of (-1.397, -0.236). The results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are slightly more conservative compared to those obtained from a boot-strapped, random effects model. We found evidence of heterogeneity (Q = 14.489, p = 0.025), accounting for 60.28% of the variation among log-ORs. Meta-regression to capture the sources of this heterogeneity did not identify any of the covariates investigated as significant. This meta-analysis confirms that heavy alcohol use is associated with decreased HCV treatment response compared to lighter levels of alcohol use. Further research is required to characterize the mechanism by which alcohol use affects HCV treatment response.« less

Time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics for meta-analysis of prognostic studies.

PubMed

Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2016-11-20

Prognostic studies are widely conducted to examine whether biomarkers are associated with patient's prognoses and play important roles in medical decisions. Because findings from one prognostic study may be very limited, meta-analyses may be useful to obtain sound evidence. However, prognostic studies are often analyzed by relying on a study-specific cut-off value, which can lead to difficulty in applying the standard meta-analysis techniques. In this paper, we propose two methods to estimate a time-dependent version of the summary receiver operating characteristics curve for meta-analyses of prognostic studies with a right-censored time-to-event outcome. We introduce a bivariate normal model for the pair of time-dependent sensitivity and specificity and propose a method to form inferences based on summary statistics reported in published papers. This method provides a valid inference asymptotically. In addition, we consider a bivariate binomial model. To draw inferences from this bivariate binomial model, we introduce a multiple imputation method. The multiple imputation is found to be approximately proper multiple imputation, and thus the standard Rubin's variance formula is justified from a Bayesian view point. Our simulation study and application to a real dataset revealed that both methods work well with a moderate or large number of studies and the bivariate binomial model coupled with the multiple imputation outperforms the bivariate normal model with a small number of studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of health-related quality of life in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with catheter ablation or antiarrhythmic drug therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

PubMed

Allan, Katherine S; Henry, Shaunattonie; Aves, Theresa; Banfield, Laura; Victor, J Charles; Dorian, Paul; Healey, Jeff S; Andrade, Jason; Carroll, Sandra; McGillion, Michael

2017-08-21

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia and causes patients considerable burden; symptoms such as palpitations and dyspnoea are common, leading to frequent emergency room visits. Patients with AF report reduced health-related quality of life (HQOL) compared with the general population; thus, treatments focus on the restoration of sinus rhythm to improve symptoms. Catheter ablation (CA) is a primary treatment strategy to treat AF-related burden in select patient populations; however, repeat procedures are often needed, there is a risk of major complications and the procedure is quite costly in comparison to medical therapy. As the outcomes after CA are mixed, an updated review that synthesises the available literature, on outcomes that matter to patients, is needed so that patients and their healthcare providers can make quality treatment decisions. The purpose of this review protocol is to extend previous findings by systematically analysing randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of CA in patients with AF and using meta-analytic techniques to identify the benefits and risks of CA with respect to HQOL and AF-related symptoms. We will include all RCTs that compare CA with antiarrhythmic drugs, or radiofrequency CA with cryoballoon CA, in patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF. To locate studies we will perform comprehensive electronic database searches from database inception to 4 April 2017, with no language restrictions. We will conduct a quantitative synthesis of the effect of CA on HQOL as well as AF-related symptoms and the number of CA procedures needed for success, using meta-analytic techniques. No ethical issues are foreseen and ethical approval is not required given that this is a protocol. The findings of the study will be reported at national and international conferences, and in a peer-reviewed journal using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. In accordance with the guidelines, our systematic review protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) on 6 March 2017 and was last updated on 6 March 2017 (registration number CRD42017057427). Any protocol amendments will be documented on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) and in the final manuscript and indicated as such. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences

PubMed Central

Tressoldi, Patrizio E.

2011-01-01

Starting from the famous phrase “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” we will present the evidence supporting the concept that human visual perception may have non-local properties, in other words, that it may operate beyond the space and time constraints of sensory organs, in order to discuss which criteria can be used to define evidence as extraordinary. This evidence has been obtained from seven databases which are related to six different protocols used to test the reality and the functioning of non-local perception, analyzed using both a frequentist and a new Bayesian meta-analysis statistical procedure. According to a frequentist meta-analysis, the null hypothesis can be rejected for all six protocols even if the effect sizes range from 0.007 to 0.28. According to Bayesian meta-analysis, the Bayes factors provides strong evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (H1) over the null hypothesis (H0), but only for three out of the six protocols. We will discuss whether quantitative psychology can contribute to defining the criteria for the acceptance of new scientific ideas in order to avoid the inconclusive controversies between supporters and opponents. PMID:21713069

Rivaroxaban Versus Dabigatran or Warfarin in Real-World Studies of Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bai, Ying; Deng, Hai; Shantsila, Alena; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-04-01

This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in real-world practice compared with effectiveness and safety of dabigatran or warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation through meta-analyzing observational studies. Seventeen studies were included after searching in PubMed for studies reporting the comparative effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban versus dabigatran (n=3), rivaroxaban versus Warfarin (n=11), or both (n=3) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Overall, the risks of stroke/systematic thromboembolism with rivaroxaban were similar when compared with those with dabigatran (stroke/thromboembolism: hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.13; I 2 =70.2%, N=5), but were significantly reduced when compared with those with warfarin (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.85; I 2 =45.1%, N=9). Major bleeding risk was significantly higher with rivaroxaban than with dabigatran (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.49; I 2 =26.1%, N=5), but similar to that with warfarin (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.07; I 2 =0.0%, N=6). Rivaroxaban was associated with increased all-cause mortality and gastrointestinal bleeding, but similar risk of acute myocardial infarction and intracranial hemorrhage when compared with dabigatran. When compared with warfarin, rivaroxaban was associated with similar risk of any bleeding, mortality, and acute myocardial infarction, but a higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, rivaroxaban was as effective as dabigatran, but was more effective than warfarin for the prevention of stroke/thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation patients. Major bleeding risk was significantly higher with rivaroxaban than with dabigatran, as was all-cause mortality and gastrointestinal bleeding. Rivaroxaban was comparable to warfarin for major bleeding, with an increased risk in gastrointestinal bleeding and decreased risk of intracranial hemorrhage. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Baseline and postoperative levels of C-reactive protein and interleukins as inflammatory predictors of atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Weymann, Alexander; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Sabashnikov, Anton; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Ryazanov, Mikhail; Tse, Gary; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Liu, Tong; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Sedaghat, Meghdad; Baker, William L; Ghanei, Azam; Yavuz, Senol; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Izadpanah, Payman; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Testa, Luca; Nikfard, Maryam; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Mashhour, Ahmed; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Rezaeisadrabadi, Mohammad; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Zhigalov, Konstantin; Benedetto, Umberto; Aminolsharieh Najafi, Soroosh; Szczechowicz, Marcin; Roever, Leonardo; Meng, Lei; Gong, Mengqi; Deshmukh, Abhishek J; Palmerini, Tullio; Linde, Cecilia; Filipiak, Krzysztof J; Stone, Gregg W; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Calkins, Hugh

2018-01-01

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a leading arrhythmia with high incidence and serious clinical implications after cardiac surgery. Cardiac surgery is associated with systemic inflammatory response including increase in cytokines and activation of endothelial and leukocyte responses. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukins (IL), with POAF following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), isolated valvular surgery, or a combination of these procedures. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies evaluating measured baseline (from one week before surgical procedures) and postoperative levels (until one week after surgical procedures) of inflammatory markers in patients with POAF. A compre-hensive search was performed in electronic medical databases (Medline/PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Science Direct, and Google Scholar) from their inception through May 2017 to identify relevant studies. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. A literature search of all major databases retrieved 1014 studies. After screening, 42 studies were analysed including a total of 8398 patients. Pooled analysis showed baseline levels of CRP (standard mean difference [SMD] 0.457 mg/L, p < 0.001), baseline levels of IL-6 (SMD 0.398 pg/mL, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of CRP (SMD 0.576 mg/L, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of IL-6 (SMD 1.66 pg/mL, p < 0.001), postoperative levels of IL-8 (SMD 0.839 pg/mL, p < 0.001), and postoperative levels of IL-10 (SMD 0.590 pg/mL, p < 0.001) to be relevant inflammatory parameters significantly associated with POAF. Perioperative inflammation is proposed to be involved in the pathogenesis of POAF. Therefore, perioperative assessment of CRP, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 can help clinicians in terms of predicting and monitoring for POAF.

Risk factors for ischemic stroke and its subtypes in Chinese vs. Caucasians: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tsai, Chung-Fen; Anderson, Niall; Thomas, Brenda; Sudlow, Cathie L M

2015-06-01

Chinese populations are reported to have a different distribution of ischemic stroke subtypes compared with Caucasians. To understand this better, we aimed to evaluate the differences in prevalence of risk factors in ischemic stroke and their distributions among ischemic stroke subtypes in Chinese vs. Caucasians. We systematically sought studies conducted since 1990 with data on frequency of risk factors among ischemic stroke subtypes in Chinese or Caucasians. For each risk factor, we calculated study-specific and random effects pooled estimates in Chinese and Caucasians separately for: prevalence among ischemic stroke; odds ratios, comparing prevalence for each ischemic stroke subtype vs. all others. We included seven studies among 16,199 Chinese, and eleven among 16,189 Caucasian ischemic stroke patients. Risk factors studied were hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, smoking and alcohol. Chinese ischemic stroke patients had younger onset of stroke than Caucasians, similar prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, smoking and alcohol, and significantly lower prevalence of atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease and hypercholesterolemia. Risk factor associations with ischemic stroke subtypes were mostly similar among Chinese and Caucasian ischemic stroke patients. Compared with all other ischemic subtypes, diabetes was more common in large artery stroke, atrial fibrillation and ischemic heart disease in cardioembolic stroke, and hypertension and diabetes in lacunar stroke. Our study showed a lower prevalence of atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart disease and hypercholesterolemia in Chinese, and mostly similar risk factor associations in Chinese and Caucasian ischemic stroke patients. Further analyses of individual patient data to allow adjustment for confounders are needed to confirm and extend these findings. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

Allowing for Correlations between Correlations in Random-Effects Meta-Analysis of Correlation Matrices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prevost, A. Toby; Mason, Dan; Griffin, Simon; Kinmonth, Ann-Louise; Sutton, Stephen; Spiegelhalter, David

2007-01-01

Practical meta-analysis of correlation matrices generally ignores covariances (and hence correlations) between correlation estimates. The authors consider various methods for allowing for covariances, including generalized least squares, maximum marginal likelihood, and Bayesian approaches, illustrated using a 6-dimensional response in a series of…

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations

PubMed Central

Majumdar, Arunabha; Haldar, Tanushree; Bhattacharya, Sourabh; Witte, John S.

2018-01-01

Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy). For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes) that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package ‘CPBayes’ implementing the proposed method. PMID:29432419

Decreased Mortality With Beta-Blockers in Patients With Heart Failure and Coexisting Atrial Fibrillation: An AF-CHF Substudy.

PubMed

Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia; Shohoudi, Azadeh; Roy, Denis; Talajic, Mario; Tadros, Rafik; Mondésert, Blandine; Dyrda, Katia; Rivard, Léna; Andrade, Jason G; Macle, Laurent; Guerra, Peter G; Thibault, Bernard; Dubuc, Marc; Khairy, Paul

2017-02-01

The impact of beta-blockers on mortality and hospitalizations was assessed in the largest randomized trial of patients with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF): the Atrial Fibrillation-Congestive Heart Failure trial. Although beta-blockers are the cornerstone of therapy for HFrEF, a recent patient-level meta-analysis cast doubt on their efficacy in patients with coexisting AF. From a total of 1,376 subjects randomized in the AF-CHF trial, those without beta-blockers at baseline were propensity matched to a maximum of 2 exposed patients. All absolute standardized differences after matching were ≤10%. Primary analyses respected the intention-to-treat principle. In on-treatment sensitivity analyses, beta-blocker status was modeled as a time-dependent covariate. Baseline characteristics were comparable among the matched cohorts (mean age 70 ± 11 years, 81% male, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction 27 ± 6%). During a median follow-up of 37 months, beta-blockers were associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.721, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.549 to 0.945; p = 0.0180) but not hospitalizations (HR: 0.886; 95% CI: 0.715 to 1.100; p = 0.2232). Similar results were obtained in sensitivity analyses that modeled beta-blockers as a time-dependent variable (HR: 0.668 for all-cause mortality; 95% CI: 0.511 to 0.874; p = 0.0032; HR: 0.814 for hospitalizations; 95% CI: 0.653 to 1.014; p = 0.0658). There were no significant interactions between beta-blockers and patterns (i.e., persistent vs. paroxysmal) or burden of AF with respect to mortality or hospitalizations. In propensity-matched analyses, beta-blockers were associated with significantly lower mortality but not hospitalizations in patients with HFrEF and AF, irrespective of the pattern or burden of AF. These results support current evidence-based recommendations for beta-blockers in patients with HFrEF, whether or not they have associated AF. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-Analysis of a Continuous Outcome Combining Individual Patient Data and Aggregate Data: A Method Based on Simulated Individual Patient Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yamaguchi, Yusuke; Sakamoto, Wataru; Goto, Masashi; Staessen, Jan A.; Wang, Jiguang; Gueyffier, Francois; Riley, Richard D.

2014-01-01

When some trials provide individual patient data (IPD) and the others provide only aggregate data (AD), meta-analysis methods for combining IPD and AD are required. We propose a method that reconstructs the missing IPD for AD trials by a Bayesian sampling procedure and then applies an IPD meta-analysis model to the mixture of simulated IPD and…

A Bayesian bird's eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social psychology’

PubMed Central

Schönbrodt, Felix D.; Yao, Yuling; Gelman, Andrew; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

We applied three Bayesian methods to reanalyse the preregistered contributions to the Social Psychology special issue ‘Replications of Important Results in Social Psychology’ (Nosek & Lakens. 2014 Registered reports: a method to increase the credibility of published results. Soc. Psychol. 45, 137–141. (doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000192)). First, individual-experiment Bayesian parameter estimation revealed that for directed effect size measures, only three out of 44 central 95% credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. For undirected effect size measures, only four out of 59 credible intervals contained values greater than 0.10 (10% of variance explained) and only 19 intervals contained values larger than 0.05. Second, a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis for all 38 t-tests showed that only one out of the 38 hierarchically estimated credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. Third, a Bayes factor hypothesis test was used to quantify the evidence for the null hypothesis against a default one-sided alternative. Only seven out of 60 Bayes factors indicated non-anecdotal support in favour of the alternative hypothesis (BF10>3), whereas 51 Bayes factors indicated at least some support for the null hypothesis. We hope that future analyses of replication success will embrace a more inclusive statistical approach by adopting a wider range of complementary techniques. PMID:28280547

Multi-ethnic fine-mapping of 14 central adiposity loci.

PubMed

Liu, Ching-Ti; Buchkovich, Martin L; Winkler, Thomas W; Heid, Iris M; Borecki, Ingrid B; Fox, Caroline S; Mohlke, Karen L; North, Kari E; Adrienne Cupples, L

2014-09-01

The Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium identified 14 loci in European Ancestry (EA) individuals associated with waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for body mass index. These loci are wide and narrowing the signals remains necessary. Twelve of 14 loci identified in GIANT EA samples retained strong associations with WHR in our joint EA/individuals of African Ancestry (AA) analysis (log-Bayes factor >6.1). Trans-ethnic analyses at five loci (TBX15-WARS2, LYPLAL1, ADAMTS9, LY86 and ITPR2-SSPN) substantially narrowed the signals to smaller sets of variants, some of which are in regions that have evidence of regulatory activity. By leveraging varying linkage disequilibrium structures across different populations, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong signals and narrower credible sets from trans-ethnic meta-analysis of central obesity provide more precise localizations of potential functional variants and suggest a possible regulatory role. Meta-analysis results for WHR were obtained from 77 167 EA participants from GIANT and 23 564 AA participants from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium. For fine mapping we interrogated SNPs within ± 250 kb flanking regions of 14 previously reported index SNPs from loci discovered in EA populations by performing trans-ethnic meta-analysis of results from the EA and AA meta-analyses. We applied a Bayesian approach that leverages allelic heterogeneity across populations to combine meta-analysis results and aids in fine-mapping shared variants at these locations. We annotated variants using information from the ENCODE Consortium and Roadmap Epigenomics Project to prioritize variants for possible functionality. Published by Oxford University Press 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Integrative multi-platform meta-analysis of gene expression profiles in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients for identifying novel diagnostic biomarkers.

PubMed

Irigoyen, Antonio; Jimenez-Luna, Cristina; Benavides, Manuel; Caba, Octavio; Gallego, Javier; Ortuño, Francisco Manuel; Guillen-Ponce, Carmen; Rojas, Ignacio; Aranda, Enrique; Torres, Carolina; Prados, Jose

2018-01-01

Applying differentially expressed genes (DEGs) to identify feasible biomarkers in diseases can be a hard task when working with heterogeneous datasets. Expression data are strongly influenced by technology, sample preparation processes, and/or labeling methods. The proliferation of different microarray platforms for measuring gene expression increases the need to develop models able to compare their results, especially when different technologies can lead to signal values that vary greatly. Integrative meta-analysis can significantly improve the reliability and robustness of DEG detection. The objective of this work was to develop an integrative approach for identifying potential cancer biomarkers by integrating gene expression data from two different platforms. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), where there is an urgent need to find new biomarkers due its late diagnosis, is an ideal candidate for testing this technology. Expression data from two different datasets, namely Affymetrix and Illumina (18 and 36 PDAC patients, respectively), as well as from 18 healthy controls, was used for this study. A meta-analysis based on an empirical Bayesian methodology (ComBat) was then proposed to integrate these datasets. DEGs were finally identified from the integrated data by using the statistical programming language R. After our integrative meta-analysis, 5 genes were commonly identified within the individual analyses of the independent datasets. Also, 28 novel genes that were not reported by the individual analyses ('gained' genes) were also discovered. Several of these gained genes have been already related to other gastroenterological tumors. The proposed integrative meta-analysis has revealed novel DEGs that may play an important role in PDAC and could be potential biomarkers for diagnosing the disease.

5-Year Outcomes After Left Atrial Appendage Closure: From the PREVAIL and PROTECT AF Trials.

PubMed

Reddy, Vivek Y; Doshi, Shephal K; Kar, Saibal; Gibson, Douglas N; Price, Matthew J; Huber, Kenneth; Horton, Rodney P; Buchbinder, Maurice; Neuzil, Petr; Gordon, Nicole T; Holmes, David R

2017-12-19

The PROTECT AF (WATCHMAN Left Atrial Appendage System for Embolic Protection in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) trial demonstrated that left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) with the Watchman device (Boston Scientific, St. Paul, Minnesota) was equivalent to warfarin for preventing stroke in atrial fibrillation, but had a high rate of complications. In a second randomized trial, PREVAIL (Evaluation of the WATCHMAN LAA Closure Device in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Versus Long Term Warfarin Therapy), the complication rate was low. The warfarin cohort experienced an unexpectedly low ischemic stroke rate, rendering the efficacy endpoints inconclusive. However, these outcomes were based on relatively few patients followed for a relatively short time. The final results of the PREVAIL trial, both alone and as part of a patient-level meta-analysis with the PROTECT AF trial, are reported with patients in both trials followed for 5 years. PREVAIL and PROTECT AF are prospective randomized clinical trials with patients randomized 2:1 to LAAC or warfarin; together, they enrolled 1,114 patients for 4,343 patient-years. Analyses are by intention-to-treat, and rates are events per 100 patient-years. For the PREVAIL trial, the first composite coprimary endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism (SE), or cardiovascular/unexplained death did not achieve noninferiority (posterior probability for noninferiority = 88.4%), whereas the second coprimary endpoint of post-procedure ischemic stroke/SE did achieve noninferiority (posterior probability for noninferiority = 97.5%); the warfarin arm maintained an unusually low ischemic stroke rate (0.73%). In the meta-analysis, the composite endpoint was similar between groups (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.820; p = 0.27), as were all-stroke/SE (HR: 0.961; p = 0.87). The ischemic stroke/SE rate was numerically higher with LAAC, but this difference did not reach statistical significance (HR: 1.71; p = 0.080). However, differences in hemorrhagic stroke, disabling/fatal stroke, cardiovascular/unexplained death, all-cause death, and post-procedure bleeding favored LAAC (HR: 0.20; p = 0.0022; HR: 0.45; p = 0.03; HR: 0.59; p = 0.027; HR: 0.73; p = 0.035; HR: 0.48; p = 0.0003, respectively). These 5-year outcomes of the PREVAIL trial, combined with the 5-year outcomes of the PROTECT AF trial, demonstrate that LAAC with Watchman provides stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation comparable to warfarin, with additional reductions in major bleeding, particularly hemorrhagic stroke, and mortality. (WATCHMAN Left Atrial Appendage System for Embolic Protection in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation; NCT00129545; and Evaluation of the WATCHMAN LAA Closure Device in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Versus Long Term Warfarin Therapy; NCT01182441). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do antibody responses to the influenza vaccine persist year-round in the elderly? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Young, Barnaby; Zhao, Xiahong; Cook, Alex R; Parry, Christopher M; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; I-Cheng, Mark Chen

2017-01-05

The influenza vaccine is less immunogenic in older than younger adults, and the duration of protection is unclear. Determining if protection persists beyond a typical seasonal epidemic is important for climates where influenza virus activity is year-round. A systematic review protocol was developed and registered with PROSPERO [CRD42015023847]. Electronic databases were searched systematically for studies reporting haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) titres 180-360days following vaccination with inactivated trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine, in adults aged ⩾65years. Geometric mean titre (GMT) and seroprotection (HI titre ⩾1:40) at each time point was extracted. A Bayesian model was developed of titre trajectories from pre-vaccination to Day 360. In the meta-analysis, studies were aggregated using a random-effects model to compare pre-vaccination with post-vaccination HI titres at Day 21-42 ('seroconversion'), Day 180 and Day 360. Potential sources of bias were systematically assessed, and heterogeneity explored. 2864 articles were identified in the literature search, of which nineteen met study inclusion/exclusion criteria. Sixteen studies contained analysable data from 2565 subjects. In the Bayesian model, the proportion of subjects seroprotected increased from 41-51% pre-vaccination to 75-78% at seroconversion. Seroprotection subsequently fell below 60% for all serotypes by Day 360: A/H1 42% (95% CI 38-46), A/H3 59% (54-63), B 47% (42-52). The Bayesian model of GMT trajectories revealed a similar pattern. By Day 360, titres were similar to pre-vaccination levels. In the meta-analysis, no significant difference in proportion of subjects seroprotected, 0 (-0.11, 0.11) or in log 2 GMT 0.30 (-0.02, 0.63) was identified by Day 360 compared with pre-vaccination. The quality of this evidence was limited to moderate on account of significant participant dropout. The review found consistent evidence that HI antibody responses following influenza vaccination do not reliably persist year-round in older adults. Alternative vaccination strategies could provide clinical benefits in regions where year-round protection is important. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and risk of type 2 diabetes in later life: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Zengfang; Wang, Zengyan; Wang, Luang; Qiu, Mingyue; Wang, Yangang; Hou, Xu; Guo, Zhong; Wang, Bin

2017-03-01

Many studies assessed the association between hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in later life, but contradictory findings were reported. A systemic review and meta-analysis was carried out to elucidate type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in women with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy. Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for cohort or case-control studies on the association between hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and subsequent type 2 diabetes mellitus. Random-effect model was used to pool risk estimates. Bayesian meta-analysis was carried out to further estimate the type 2 diabetes mellitus risk associated with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy. Seventeen cohort or prospective matched case-control studies were finally included. Those 17 studies involved 2,984,634 women and 46,732 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases. Overall, hypertensive disorders during pregnancy were significantly correlated with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk (relative risk = 1.56, 95 % confidence interval 1.21-2.01, P = 0.001). Preeclampsia was significantly and independently correlated with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk (relative risk = 2.25, 95 % confidence interval 1.73-2.90, P < 0.001). In addition, gestational hypertension was also significantly and independently correlated with subsequent type 2 diabetes mellitus risk (relative risk = 2.06, 95 % confidence interval 1.57-2.69, P < 0.001). The pooled estimates were not significantly altered in the subgroup analyses of studies on preeclampsia or gestational hypertension. Bayesian meta-analysis showed the relative risks of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk for individuals with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy, preeclampsia, and gestational hypertension were 1.59 (95 % credibility interval: 1.11-2.32), 2.27 (95 % credibility interval: 1.67-2.97), and 2.06 (95 % credibility interval: 1.41-2.84), respectively. Publication bias was not evident in the meta-analysis. Preeclampsia and gestational hypertension are independently associated with substantially elevated risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in later life.

Systematic Review for the 2017 ACC/AHA/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/AGS/APhA/ASH/ASPC/NMA/PCNA Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines.

PubMed

Reboussin, David M; Allen, Norrina B; Griswold, Michael E; Guallar, Eliseo; Hong, Yuling; Lackland, Daniel T; Miller, Edgar Pete R; Polonsky, Tamar; Thompson-Paul, Angela M; Vupputuri, Suma

2018-06-01

To review the literature systematically and perform meta-analyses to address these questions: 1) Is there evidence that self-measured blood pressure (BP) without other augmentation is superior to office-based measurement of BP for achieving better BP control or for preventing adverse clinical outcomes that are related to elevated BP? 2) What is the optimal target for BP lowering during antihypertensive therapy in adults? 3) In adults with hypertension, how do various antihypertensive drug classes differ in their benefits and harms compared with each other as first-line therapy? Electronic literature searches were performed by Doctor Evidence, a global medical evidence software and services company, across PubMed and EMBASE from 1966 to 2015 using key words and relevant subject headings for randomized controlled trials that met eligibility criteria defined for each question. We performed analyses using traditional frequentist statistical and Bayesian approaches, including random-effects Bayesian network meta-analyses. Our results suggest that: 1) There is a modest but significant improvement in systolic BP in randomized controlled trials of self-measured BP versus usual care at 6 but not 12 months, and for selected patients and their providers self-measured BP may be a helpful adjunct to routine office care. 2) systolic BP lowering to a target of <130 mm Hg may reduce the risk of several important outcomes including risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and major cardiovascular events. No class of medications (ie, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, or beta blockers) was significantly better than thiazides and thiazide-like diuretics as a first-line therapy for any outcome. © 2017 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation and the American Heart Association, Inc.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic test data: a bivariate Bayesian modeling approach.

PubMed

Verde, Pablo E

2010-12-30

In the last decades, the amount of published results on clinical diagnostic tests has expanded very rapidly. The counterpart to this development has been the formal evaluation and synthesis of diagnostic results. However, published results present substantial heterogeneity and they can be regarded as so far removed from the classical domain of meta-analysis, that they can provide a rather severe test of classical statistical methods. Recently, bivariate random effects meta-analytic methods, which model the pairs of sensitivities and specificities, have been presented from the classical point of view. In this work a bivariate Bayesian modeling approach is presented. This approach substantially extends the scope of classical bivariate methods by allowing the structural distribution of the random effects to depend on multiple sources of variability. Meta-analysis is summarized by the predictive posterior distributions for sensitivity and specificity. This new approach allows, also, to perform substantial model checking, model diagnostic and model selection. Statistical computations are implemented in the public domain statistical software (WinBUGS and R) and illustrated with real data examples. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of correlated effects: Impact of the prior distributions on the between-study correlation, borrowing of strength, and joint inferences

PubMed Central

Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Riley, Richard D

2016-01-01

Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated results from multiple studies, for example, for multiple outcomes or multiple treatment groups. In a Bayesian univariate meta-analysis of one endpoint, the importance of specifying a sensible prior distribution for the between-study variance is well understood. However, in multivariate meta-analysis, there is little guidance about the choice of prior distributions for the variances or, crucially, the between-study correlation, ρB; for the latter, researchers often use a Uniform(−1,1) distribution assuming it is vague. In this paper, an extensive simulation study and a real illustrative example is used to examine the impact of various (realistically) vague prior distributions for ρB and the between-study variances within a Bayesian bivariate random-effects meta-analysis of two correlated treatment effects. A range of diverse scenarios are considered, including complete and missing data, to examine the impact of the prior distributions on posterior results (for treatment effect and between-study correlation), amount of borrowing of strength, and joint predictive distributions of treatment effectiveness in new studies. Two key recommendations are identified to improve the robustness of multivariate meta-analysis results. First, the routine use of a Uniform(−1,1) prior distribution for ρB should be avoided, if possible, as it is not necessarily vague. Instead, researchers should identify a sensible prior distribution, for example, by restricting values to be positive or negative as indicated by prior knowledge. Second, it remains critical to use sensible (e.g. empirically based) prior distributions for the between-study variances, as an inappropriate choice can adversely impact the posterior distribution for ρB, which may then adversely affect inferences such as joint predictive probabilities. These recommendations are especially important with a small number of studies and missing data. PMID:26988929

Vitamin D and new-onset atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Ling; Yang, Jun; Yang, Jian; Wang, Hui-Bo; Yang, Chao-Jun; Yang, Ying

2017-11-14

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, which affects 1.5% to 2% of the general population. More than six million Europeans suffer from AF. To research vitamin D levels in the prevention of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), we conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We focused on the vitamin D levels in the prevention of new-onset AF. The outcomes assessed were vitamin D levels, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and left atrium diameter. Six RCTs ultimately met the inclusion criteria in the meta-analysis. The outcomes of Vitamin D levels (MD = -4.27, 95% CI = -5.20 to-3.34, P = 0.30) in the new-onset AF showed no significant difference. The left atrium diameter (MD = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.48 to 2.60, P < 0.01) between new-onset AF and LVEF (MD = -0.92, 95% CI = -1.59 to -0.26, P < 0.01) showed significant difference. Our study shows that circulating vitamin D levels may not play a major role in the development of new-onset AF. Copyright © 2017 Hellenic Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adding results to a meta-analysis: Theory and example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willson, Victor L.

Meta-analysis has been used as a research method to describe bodies of research data. It promotes hypothesis formation and the development of science education laws. A function overlooked, however, is the role it plays in updating research. Methods to integrate new research with meta-analysis results need explication. A procedure is presented using Bayesian analysis. Research in science education attitude correlation with achievement has been published after a recent meta-analysis of the topic. The results show how new findings complement the previous meta-analysis and extend its conclusions. Additional methodological questions adddressed are how studies are to be weighted, which variables are to be examined, and how often meta-analysis are to be updated.

Comparison of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to prevent delirium in critically ill patients: a protocol for a systematic review incorporating network meta-analyses.

PubMed

Burry, L D; Hutton, B; Guenette, M; Williamson, D; Mehta, S; Egerod, I; Kanji, S; Adhikari, N K; Moher, D; Martin, C M; Rose, L

2016-09-08

Delirium is characterized by acute changes in mental status including inattention, disorganized thinking, and altered level of consciousness, and is highly prevalent in critically ill adults. Delirium has adverse consequences for both patients and the healthcare system; however, at this time, no effective treatment exists. The identification of effective prevention strategies is therefore a clinical and research imperative. An important limitation of previous reviews of delirium prevention is that interventions were considered in isolation and only direct evidence was used. Our systematic review will synthesize all existing data using network meta-analysis, a powerful statistical approach that enables synthesis of both direct and indirect evidence. We will search Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science from 1980 to March 2016. We will search the PROSPERO registry for protocols and the Cochrane Library for published systematic reviews. We will examine reference lists of pertinent reviews and search grey literature and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for unpublished studies and ongoing trials. We will include randomized and quasi-randomized trials of critically ill adults evaluating any pharmacological, non-pharmacological, or multi-component intervention for delirium prevention, administered in or prior to (i.e., peri-operatively) transfer to the ICU. Two authors will independently screen search results and extract data from eligible studies. Risk of bias assessments will be completed on all included studies. To inform our network meta-analysis, we will first conduct conventional pair-wise meta-analyses for primary and secondary outcomes using random-effects models. We will generate our network meta-analysis using a Bayesian framework, assuming a common heterogeneity parameter across all comparisons, and accounting for correlations in multi-arm studies. We will perform analyses using WinBUGS software. This systematic review will address the existing knowledge gap regarding best practices for delirium prevention in critically ill adults by synthesizing evidence from trials of pharmacological, non-pharmacological, and multi-component interventions administered in or prior to transfer to the ICU. Use of network meta-analysis will clarify which delirium prevention strategies are most effective in improving clinical outcomes while causing least harm. The network meta-analysis is a novel approach and will provide knowledge users and decision makers with comparisons of multiple interventions of delirium prevention strategies. PROSPERO CRD42016036313.

Bayesian mixture analysis for metagenomic community profiling.

PubMed

Morfopoulou, Sofia; Plagnol, Vincent

2015-09-15

Deep sequencing of clinical samples is now an established tool for the detection of infectious pathogens, with direct medical applications. The large amount of data generated produces an opportunity to detect species even at very low levels, provided that computational tools can effectively profile the relevant metagenomic communities. Data interpretation is complicated by the fact that short sequencing reads can match multiple organisms and by the lack of completeness of existing databases, in particular for viral pathogens. Here we present metaMix, a Bayesian mixture model framework for resolving complex metagenomic mixtures. We show that the use of parallel Monte Carlo Markov chains for the exploration of the species space enables the identification of the set of species most likely to contribute to the mixture. We demonstrate the greater accuracy of metaMix compared with relevant methods, particularly for profiling complex communities consisting of several related species. We designed metaMix specifically for the analysis of deep transcriptome sequencing datasets, with a focus on viral pathogen detection; however, the principles are generally applicable to all types of metagenomic mixtures. metaMix is implemented as a user friendly R package, freely available on CRAN: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/metaMix sofia.morfopoulou.10@ucl.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bionformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Real-World Use of Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Proietti, Marco; Romanazzi, Imma; Romiti, Giulio Francesco; Farcomeni, Alessio; Lip, Gregory Y H

2018-01-01

The use of oral anticoagulant therapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation has been transformed by the availability of the nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants. Real-world studies on the use of nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants would help elucidate their effectiveness and safety in daily clinical practice. Apixaban was the third nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants introduced to clinical practice, and increasing real-world studies have been published. Our aim was to summarize current evidence about real-world studies on apixaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all observational real-world studies comparing apixaban with other available oral anticoagulant drugs. From the original 9680 results retrieved, 16 studies have been included in the final meta-analysis. Compared with warfarin, apixaban regular dose was more effective in reducing any thromboembolic event (odds ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.93), but no significant difference was found for stroke risk. Apixaban was as effective as dabigatran and rivaroxaban in reducing thromboembolic events and stroke. The risk of major bleeding was significantly lower for apixaban compared with warfarin, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban (relative risk reduction, 38%, 35%, and 46%, respectively). Similarly, the risk for intracranial hemorrhage was significantly lower for apixaban than warfarin and rivaroxaban (46% and 54%, respectively) but not dabigatran. The risk of gastrointestinal bleeding was lower with apixaban when compared with all oral anticoagulant agents ( P <0.00001 for all comparisons). Use of apixaban in real-life is associated with an overall similar effectiveness in reducing stroke and any thromboembolic events when compared with warfarin. A better safety profile was found with apixaban compared with warfarin, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Comparison of catheter ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation between cryoballoon and radiofrequency: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Chao-Feng; Gao, Xiao-Fei; Duan, Xu; Chen, Bin; Liu, Xiao-Hua; Xu, Yi-Zhou

2017-04-01

The present systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess and compare the safety and efficacy of radiofrequency (RF) and cryoballoon (CB) ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). RF and CB ablation are two frequently used methods for pulmonary vein isolation in PAF, but which is a better choice for PAF remains uncertain. A systematic review was conducted in Medline, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library. All trials comparing RF and CB ablation were screened and included if the inclusion criteria were met. A total of 38 eligible studies, 9 prospective randomized or randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and 29 non- RCTs were identified, adding up to 15,496 patients. Pool analyses indicated that CB ablation was more beneficial in terms of procedural time [standard mean difference = -0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.85 to -0.30], complications without phrenic nerve injury (PNI) [odds ratio (OR) = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.93; I 2  = 16%], and recrudescence (OR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-0.97; I 2  = 63%) for PAF; however, the total complications of CB was higher than RF. The subgroup analysis found that, compared with non-contact force radiofrequency (non-CF-RF), both first-generation cryoballoon (CB1) and second-generation cryoballoon (CB2) ablation could reduce complications with PNI, procedural time, and recrudescence. However, the safety and efficacy of CB2 was similar to those of CF-RF. Available overall and subgroup data suggested that both CB1 and CB2 were more beneficial than RF ablation, and the main advantages were reflected in comparing them with non-CF-RF. However, CF-RF and CB2 showed similar clinical benefits.

Direct comparative effectiveness and safety between non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Li, Guowei; Lip, Gregory Y H; Holbrook, Anne; Chang, Yaping; Larsen, Torben B; Sun, Xin; Tang, Jie; Mbuagbaw, Lawrence; Witt, Daniel M; Crowther, Mark; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

2018-06-08

The non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have been increasingly prescribed in clinical practice for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Direct comparisons between NOACs in trials are lacking, leaving an important clinical decision-making gap. We aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence of observational studies for direct comparative effectiveness and safety amongst NOACs in patients with AF. Conference proceedings and electronic databases including MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and PUBMED were systematically searched. We included observational studies directly comparing individual NOACs in patients with nonvalvular AF who were aged ≥ 18 years for stroke prevention. Primary outcome included effectiveness outcome (stroke or systemic embolism) and safety outcome (major bleeding). Data were extracted in duplicated by two reviewers independently. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the data from included observational studies. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) to rate the overall quality of evidence for each outcome. Fifteen studies were included for qualitative synthesis, twelve studies for meta-analyses. It was found that rivaroxaban and dabigatran were similar with regard to risk of stroke or systemic embolism (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.10; evidence quality: low), but rivaroxaban was associated with higher risk of major bleeding (HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.28-1.50; evidence quality: moderate). Compared with apixaban, a significantly higher risk of major bleeding was observed with rivaroxaban (HR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.51-1.94; evidence quality: low). Apixaban was associated with lower risk of major bleeding, in comparison with dabigatran (HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.95; evidence quality: low). No differences in risk of stroke or systemic embolism was observed between rivaroxaban versus apixaban, and apixaban versus dabigatran. In this study, apixaban was found to have the most favorable safety profile amongst the three NOACs. No significant difference was observed in risk of stroke or systemic embolism between the NOACs. Such findings may provide some decision-making support for physicians regarding their choices amongst NOACs in patients with AF.Registration PROSPERO (identifier: CRD42016052908).

Cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation in nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation in the primary prevention of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Lightowlers, S; McGuire, A

1998-09-01

A number of clinical trials have shown the value of anticoagulating patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation to prevent ischemic stroke. The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation in nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation with particular reference to the very elderly (aged >75 years) who have a higher incidence of bleeding events while undergoing anticoagulation. We calculated the incremental costs per life-year gained for 4 base cases using efficacy data from the Boston Area Anticoagulation Trial for Atrial Fibrillation, the meta-analysis of the 5 nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation trials, cost data from a district general hospital, and review of the literature. The cost per life-year gained free from stroke over 10 years ranged from -pound sterling 400.45 (ie, a resource saving achieved for each life-year gained free from stroke) to pound sterling 13,221.29. The results were most sensitive to alteration in the frequency of anticoagulation monitoring. For medical and economic reasons, anticoagulation treatment in the prevention of ischemic stroke is justified. Although older patients are more at risk of adverse events, anticoagulation is more cost-effective in this group.

Confidence Intervals for the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis Using Generalised Cochran Heterogeneity Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan

2013-01-01

Statistical inference is problematic in the common situation in meta-analysis where the random effects model is fitted to just a handful of studies. In particular, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood provides a poor approximation, and Bayesian methods are sensitive to the prior specification. Hence, less efficient, but easily computed and…

Protocol of GLUcose COntrol Safety and Efficacy in type 2 DIabetes, a NETwork meta-analysis: GLUCOSE DINET protocol-Rational and design.

PubMed

Grenet, Guillaume; Lajoinie, Audrey; Ribault, Shams; Nguyen, Gia Bao; Linet, Thomas; Metge, Augustin; Cornu, Catherine; Cucherat, Michel; Moulin, Philippe; Gueyffier, François

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to propose a ranking of the currently available antidiabetic drugs, regarding vascular clinical outcomes, in patients with type 2 diabetes, through a network meta-analysis approach. Randomized clinical trials, regardless of the blinding design, testing contemporary antidiabetic drugs, and considering clinically relevant outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus will be included. The primary outcomes of this analysis will be overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major cardiovascular events. Diabetic microangiopathy will be a secondary outcome. Adverse events, hypoglycemia, weight evolution, bariatric surgery, and discontinuation of the treatment will also be recorded. Each drug will be analyzed according to its therapeutic class: biguanide, alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, sulfonylureas, glitazones, glinides, insulin, DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 analogs, and gliflozins. The treatment effect of each drug class will be compared using pairwise meta-analysis and a Bayesian random model network meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted according to the quality of the studies and the glycemic control. The report will follow the PRISMA checklist for network meta-analysis. Results of the search strategy and of the study selection will be presented in a PRISMA compliant flowchart. The treatment effects will be summarized with odds ratio (OR) estimates and their 95% credible intervals. A ranking of the drugs will be proposed. Our network meta-analysis should allow a clinically relevant ranking of the contemporary antidiabetic drugs. © 2016 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Predictive Role of Coagulation, Fibrinolytic, and Endothelial Markers in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation, Stroke, and Thromboembolism: A Meta-Analysis, Meta-Regression, and Systematic Review.

PubMed

Weymann, Alexander; Sabashnikov, Anton; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Jalil Mirhosseini, Seyed; Baker, William L; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Liu, Tong; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Yavuz, Senol; de Oliveira Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros; Jang, Jae-Sik; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Meng, Lei; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Deshmukh, Abhishek J; Biondi-Zoccai, Guiseppe; Dohmen, Pascal M; Calkins, Hugh; Cardiac Surgery And Cardiology-Group Imcsc-Group, Integrated Meta-Analysis Of Cardiac

2017-03-31

BACKGROUND The pathophysiological mechanism associated with the higher prothrombotic tendency in atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex and multifactorial. However, the role of prothrombotic markers in AF remains inconclusive. MATERIAL AND METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating the association of coagulation activation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial function with occurrence of AF and clinical adverse events. A comprehensive subgroup analysis and meta-regression was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS A literature search of major databases retrieved 1703 studies. After screening, a total of 71 studies were identified. Pooled analysis showed the association of coagulation markers (D-dimer (weighted mean difference (WMD) =197.67 and p<0.001), fibrinogen (WMD=0.43 and p<0.001), prothrombin fragment 1-2 (WMD=0.53 and p<0.001), antithrombin III (WMD=23.90 and p=0.004), thrombin-antithrombin (WMD=5.47 and p=0.004));  fibrinolytic markers (tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) (WMD=2.13 and p<0.001), plasminogen activator inhibitor (WMD=11.44 and p<0.001), fibrinopeptide-A (WMD=4.13 and p=0.01)); and  endothelial markers (von Willebrand factor (WMD=27.01 and p<0.001) and soluble thrombomodulin (WMD=3.92 and p<0.001)) with AF. CONCLUSIONS The levels of coagulation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial markers have been reported to be significantly higher in AF patients than in SR patients.

Predictive Role of Coagulation, Fibrinolytic, and Endothelial Markers in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation, Stroke, and Thromboembolism: A Meta-Analysis, Meta-Regression, and Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Weymann, Alexander; Sabashnikov, Anton; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Baker, William L.; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Liu, Tong; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Yavuz, Senol; de Oliveira Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros; Jang, Jae-Sik; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Meng, Lei; D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Deshmukh, Abhishek J.; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Calkins, Hugh

2017-01-01

Background The pathophysiological mechanism associated with the higher prothrombotic tendency in atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex and multifactorial. However, the role of prothrombotic markers in AF remains inconclusive. Material/Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating the association of coagulation activation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial function with occurrence of AF and clinical adverse events. A comprehensive subgroup analysis and meta-regression was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. Results A literature search of major databases retrieved 1703 studies. After screening, a total of 71 studies were identified. Pooled analysis showed the association of coagulation markers (D-dimer (weighted mean difference (WMD)=197.67 and p<0.001), fibrinogen (WMD=0.43 and p<0.001), prothrombin fragment 1–2 (WMD=0.53 and p<0.001), antithrombin III (WMD=23.90 and p=0.004), thrombin-antithrombin (WMD=5.47 and p=0.004)); fibrinolytic markers (tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) (WMD=2.13 and p<0.001), plasminogen activator inhibitor (WMD=11.44 and p<0.001), fibrinopeptide-A (WMD=4.13 and p=0.01)); and endothelial markers (von Willebrand factor (WMD=27.01 and p<0.001) and soluble thrombomodulin (WMD=3.92 and p<0.001)) with AF. Conclusions The levels of coagulation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial markers have been reported to be significantly higher in AF patients than in SR patients. PMID:28360407

Comparative safety and efficacy of vasopressors for mortality in septic shock: A network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Nagendran, Myura; Maruthappu, Mahiben; Gordon, Anthony C; Gurusamy, Kurinchi S

2016-05-01

Septic shock is a life-threatening condition requiring vasopressor agents to support the circulatory system. Several agents exist with choice typically guided by the specific clinical scenario. We used a network meta-analysis approach to rate the comparative efficacy and safety of vasopressors for mortality and arrhythmia incidence in septic shock patients. We performed a comprehensive electronic database search including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane database. Randomised trials investigating vasopressor agents in septic shock patients and specifically assessing 28-day mortality or arrhythmia incidence were included. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Thirteen trials of low to moderate risk of bias in which 3146 patients were randomised were included. There was no pairwise evidence to suggest one agent was superior over another for mortality. In the network meta-analysis, vasopressin was significantly superior to dopamine (OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.94)) for mortality. For arrhythmia incidence, standard pairwise meta-analyses confirmed that dopamine led to a higher incidence of arrhythmias than norepinephrine (OR 2.69 (95% CI 2.08 to 3.47)). In the network meta-analysis, there was no evidence of superiority of one agent over another. In this network meta-analysis, vasopressin was superior to dopamine for 28-day mortality in septic shock. Existing pairwise information supports the use of norepinephrine over dopamine. Our findings suggest that dopamine should be avoided in patients with septic shock and that other vasopressor agents should continue to be based on existing guidelines and clinical judgement of the specific presentation of the patient.

Network meta-analysis: a technique to gather evidence from direct and indirect comparisons

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Systematic reviews and pairwise meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials, at the intersection of clinical medicine, epidemiology and statistics, are positioned at the top of evidence-based practice hierarchy. These are important tools to base drugs approval, clinical protocols and guidelines formulation and for decision-making. However, this traditional technique only partially yield information that clinicians, patients and policy-makers need to make informed decisions, since it usually compares only two interventions at the time. In the market, regardless the clinical condition under evaluation, usually many interventions are available and few of them have been studied in head-to-head studies. This scenario precludes conclusions to be drawn from comparisons of all interventions profile (e.g. efficacy and safety). The recent development and introduction of a new technique – usually referred as network meta-analysis, indirect meta-analysis, multiple or mixed treatment comparisons – has allowed the estimation of metrics for all possible comparisons in the same model, simultaneously gathering direct and indirect evidence. Over the last years this statistical tool has matured as technique with models available for all types of raw data, producing different pooled effect measures, using both Frequentist and Bayesian frameworks, with different software packages. However, the conduction, report and interpretation of network meta-analysis still poses multiple challenges that should be carefully considered, especially because this technique inherits all assumptions from pairwise meta-analysis but with increased complexity. Thus, we aim to provide a basic explanation of network meta-analysis conduction, highlighting its risks and benefits for evidence-based practice, including information on statistical methods evolution, assumptions and steps for performing the analysis. PMID:28503228

Systematic meta-analyses and field synopsis of genetic association studies in colorectal adenomas

PubMed Central

Montazeri, Zahra; Theodoratou, Evropi; Nyiraneza, Christine; Timofeeva, Maria; Chen, Wanjing; Svinti, Victoria; Sivakumaran, Shanya; Gresham, Gillian; Cubitt, Laura; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Bertagnolli, Monica M; Zauber, Ann G; Tomlinson, Ian; Farrington, Susan M; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Campbell, Harry; Little, Julian

2018-01-01

Background Low penetrance genetic variants, primarily single nucleotide polymorphisms, have substantial influence on colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility. Most CRCs develop from colorectal adenomas (CRA). Here, we report the first comprehensive field synopsis that catalogues all genetic association studies on CRA, with a parallel online database (http://www.chs.med.ed.ac.uk/CRAgene/). Methods We performed a systematic review, reviewing 9750 titles and then extracted data from 130 publications reporting on 181 polymorphisms in 74 genes. We conducted meta-analyses to derive summary effect estimates for 37 polymorphisms in 26 genes. We applied the Venice criteria and Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP) to assess the levels of the credibility of associations. Results We considered the association with the rs6983267 variant at 8q24 as “highly credible”, reaching genome wide statistical significance in at least one meta-analysis model. We identified “less credible” associations (higher heterogeneity, lower statistical power, BFDP>0.02) with a further four variants of four independent genes: MTHFR c.677C>T p.A222V (rs1801133), TP53 c.215C>G p.R72P (rs1042522), NQO1 c.559C>T p.P187S (rs1800566), and NAT1 alleles imputed as fast acetylator genotypes. For the remaining 32 variants of 22 genes for which positive associations with CRA risk have been previously reported, the meta-analyses revealed no credible evidence to support these as true associations. Conclusions The limited number of credible associations between low penetrance genetic variants and CRA reflects the lower volume of evidence and associated lack of statistical power to detect associations of the magnitude typically observed for genetic variants and chronic diseases. The CRAgene database provides context for CRA genetic association data and will help inform future research directions. PMID:26451011

Effectiveness of progesterone, cerclage and pessary for preventing preterm birth in singleton pregnancies: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jarde, A; Lutsiv, O; Park, C K; Beyene, J; Dodd, J M; Barrett, J; Shah, P S; Cook, J L; Saito, S; Biringer, A B; Sabatino, L; Giglia, L; Han, Z; Staub, K; Mundle, W; Chamberlain, J; McDonald, S D

2017-07-01

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant death, but it is unclear which intervention is best to prevent it. To compare progesterone, cerclage and pessary, determine their relative effects and rank them. We searched Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL and Web of Science (to April 2016), without restrictions, and screened references of previous reviews. We included randomised trials of progesterone, cerclage or pessary for preventing PTB in women with singleton pregnancies at risk as defined by each study. We extracted data by duplicate using a piloted form and performed Bayesian random-effects network meta-analyses and pairwise meta-analyses. We rated evidence quality using GRADE, ranked interventions using SUCRA and calculated numbers needed to treat (NNT). We included 36 trials (9425 women; 25 low risk of bias trials). Progesterone ranked first or second for most outcomes, reducing PTB < 34 weeks [odds ratio (OR) 0.44; 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.22-0.79; NNT 9; low quality], <37 weeks (OR 0.58; 95% CrI 0.41-0.79; NNT 9; moderate quality), and neonatal death (OR 0.50; 95% CrI 0.28-0.85; NNT 35; high quality), compared with control, in women overall at risk. We found similar results in the subgroup with previous PTB, but only a reduction of PTB < 34 weeks in women with a short cervix. Pessary showed inconsistent benefit and cerclage did not reduce PTB < 37 or <34 weeks. Progesterone was the best intervention for preventing PTB in singleton pregnancies at risk, reducing PTB < 34 weeks, <37 weeks, neonatal demise and other sequelae. Progesterone was better than cerclage and pessary to prevent preterm birth, neonatal death and more in network meta-analysis. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Temporary atrial epicardial pacing as prophylaxis against atrial fibrillation after heart surgery: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Daoud, Emile G; Snow, Rick; Hummel, John D; Kalbfleisch, Steven J; Weiss, Raul; Augostini, Ralph

2003-02-01

Recent studies have reported the use of temporary epicardial atrial pacing as prophylaxis for postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to assess the effect of pacing therapies for prevention of postoperative AF using meta-analysis. Using a computerized MEDLINE search, eight pacing prophylaxis trials with 776 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Trials compared control patients to patients randomized to right atrial, left atrial, or biatrial pacing used in conjunction with either fixed high-rate pacing or overdrive pacing. Overdrive biatrial pacing (OR 2.6, CI 1.4-4.8), overdrive right atrial pacing (OR 1.8, CI 1.1-2.7), and fixed high-rate biatrial pacing (OR 2.5, CI 1.3-5.1) demonstrated a significant antiarrhythmic effect for prevention of AF after open heart surgery. Furthermore, studies investigating overdrive left atrial pacing and fixed high-rate right atrial pacing have been underpowered to assess efficacy. Biatrial overdrive and fixed high-rate pacing and right atrial fixed high-rate pacing reduced the risk of new-onset AF after open heart surgery, and the relative risk reduction is approximately 2.5-fold. These results imply that various pacing algorithms are useful as a nonpharmacologic method to prevent postoperative AF.

Left atrial concomitant surgical ablation for treatment of atrial fibrillation in cardiac surgery: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Wang, Chunguo; Ye, Minhua; Lin, Jiang; Jin, Jiang; Hu, Quanteng; Zhu, Chengchu; Chen, Baofu

2018-01-01

Introduction Surgical ablation is a generally established treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing concomitant cardiac surgery. Left atrial (LA) lesion set for ablation is a simplified procedure suggested to reduce the surgery time and morbidity after procedure. The present meta-analysis aims to explore the outcomes of left atrial lesion set versus no ablative treatment in patients with AF undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods A literature research was performed in six database from their inception to July 2017, identifying all relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing left atrial lesion set versus no ablative treatment in AF patient undergoing cardiac surgery. Data were extracted and analyzed according to predefined clinical endpoints. Results Eleven relevant RCTs were included for analysis in the present study. The prevalence of sinus rhythm in ablation group was significantly higher at discharge, 6-month and 1-year follow-up period. The morbidity including 30 day mortality, late all-cause mortality, reoperation for bleeding, permanent pacemaker implantation and neurological events were of no significant difference between two groups. Conclusions The result of our meta-analysis demonstrates that left atrial lesion set is an effective and safe surgical ablation strategy for AF patients undergoing concomitant cardiac surgery. PMID:29360851

Resting heart rate and the risk of cardiovascular disease, total cancer, and all-cause mortality - A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, D; Sen, A; ó'Hartaigh, B; Janszky, I; Romundstad, P R; Tonstad, S; Vatten, L J

2017-06-01

Epidemiological studies have reported increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality with greater resting heart rate, however, the evidence is not consistent. Differences by gender, adjustment for confounding factors, as well as the potential impact of subclinical disease are not clear. A previous meta-analysis missed a large number of studies, and data for atrial fibrillation have not been summarized before. We therefore aimed to clarify these associations in a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. PubMed and Embase were searched up to 29 March 2017. Summary RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effects models. Eighty seven studies were included. The summary RR per 10 beats per minute increase in resting heart rate was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10, I 2  = 61.9%, n = 31) for coronary heart disease, 1.09 (95% CI: 1.00-1.18, I 2  = 62.3%, n = 5) for sudden cardiac death, 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10-1.27, I 2  = 74.5%, n = 8) for heart failure, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92-1.02, I 2  = 91.4%, n = 9) for atrial fibrillation, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10, I 2  = 59.5%, n = 16) for total stroke, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.11-1.18, I 2  = 84.3%, n = 35) for cardiovascular disease, 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06-1.23, I 2  = 90.2%, n = 12) for total cancer, and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.14-1.19, I 2  = 94.0%, n = 48) for all-cause mortality. There was a positive dose-response relationship for all outcomes except for atrial fibrillation for which there was a J-shaped association. This meta-analysis found an increased risk of coronary heart disease, sudden cardiac death, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, cardiovascular disease, total cancer and all-cause mortality with greater resting heart rate. Copyright © 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Concomitant surgical closure of left atrial appendage: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ando, Masahiko; Funamoto, Masaki; Cameron, Duke E; Sundt, Thoralf M

2018-03-12

Although percutaneous closure of the left atrial appendage is supported as a potential alternative to lifelong anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation, comprehensive evidence on surgical left atrial appendage closure in heart surgery is limited. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies comparing patients who underwent open cardiac surgery with or without left atrial appendage closure. A literature search was performed on PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Trials databases. Outcomes of interest were 30-day/in-hospital mortality and cerebrovascular accident. I 2 statistics were used to evaluate heterogeneity, and publication bias was evaluated by Begg's and Egger's tests. We reviewed 1284 articles and selected for main analysis 7 articles including 3897 patients (1963 in the left atrial appendage closure group and 1934 in the non-left atrial appendage closure group). Among the 7 studies, 3 were randomized-controlled studies, 3 were propensity-matched studies, and 1 was a case-matching study. At 30-day/in-hospital follow-up, left atrial appendage closure was significantly associated with decreased risk of mortality and cerebrovascular accident (odds ratio, 0.384, 95% confidence interval, 0.233-0.631 for mortality, and odds ratio, 0.622, 95% confidence interval, 0.388-0.998 for cerebrovascular accident). Stratified analysis demonstrated that this association was more prominent in preoperative atrial fibrillation strata. Concomitant surgical left atrial appendage closure should be considered at the time of open cardiac surgery, particularly among those in atrial fibrillation preoperatively. The benefit of left atrial appendage closure for patients not in atrial fibrillation and for those undergoing nonvalvular surgery is still unclear. Further prospective investigations are indicated. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Controlling bias and inflation in epigenome- and transcriptome-wide association studies using the empirical null distribution.

PubMed

van Iterson, Maarten; van Zwet, Erik W; Heijmans, Bastiaan T

2017-01-27

We show that epigenome- and transcriptome-wide association studies (EWAS and TWAS) are prone to significant inflation and bias of test statistics, an unrecognized phenomenon introducing spurious findings if left unaddressed. Neither GWAS-based methodology nor state-of-the-art confounder adjustment methods completely remove bias and inflation. We propose a Bayesian method to control bias and inflation in EWAS and TWAS based on estimation of the empirical null distribution. Using simulations and real data, we demonstrate that our method maximizes power while properly controlling the false positive rate. We illustrate the utility of our method in large-scale EWAS and TWAS meta-analyses of age and smoking.

A Bayes Factor Meta-Analysis of Recent Extrasensory Perception Experiments: Comment on Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio (2010)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.; Province, Jordan M.

2013-01-01

Psi phenomena, such as mental telepathy, precognition, and clairvoyance, have garnered much recent attention. We reassess the evidence for psi effects from Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio's (2010) meta-analysis. Our analysis differs from Storm et al.'s in that we rely on Bayes factors, a Bayesian approach for stating the evidence from data for…

Testing the Storm et al. (2010) Meta-Analysis Using Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches: Reply to Rouder et al. (2013)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storm, Lance; Tressoldi, Patrizio E.; Utts, Jessica

2013-01-01

Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio's (2010) meta-analysis is supported only by a number of studies that used manual randomization, and (b) when these studies are excluded so that only investigations using automatic randomization are evaluated (and some additional…

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Therapies for bruxism: a systematic review and network meta-analysis (protocol).

PubMed

Mesko, Mauro Elias; Hutton, Brian; Skupien, Jovito Adiel; Sarkis-Onofre, Rafael; Moher, David; Pereira-Cenci, Tatiana

2017-01-13

Bruxism is a sleep disorder characterized by grinding and clenching of the teeth that may be related to irreversible tooth injuries. It is a prevalent condition occurring in up to 31% of adults. However, there is no definitive answer as to which of the many currently available treatments (including drug therapy, intramuscular injections, physiotherapy, biofeedback, kinesiotherapy, use of intraoral devices, or psychological therapy) is the best for the clinical management of the different manifestations of bruxism. The aim of this systematic review and network meta-analysis is to answer the following question: what is the best treatment for adult bruxists? Comprehensive searches of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (via PubMed), Scopus, and LILACS will be completed using the following keywords: bruxism and therapies and related entry terms. Studies will be included, according to the eligibility criteria (Controlled Clinical Trials and Randomized Clinical Trials, considering specific outcome measures for bruxism). The reference lists of included studies will be hand searched. Relevant data will be extracted from included studies using a specially designed data extraction sheet. Risk of bias of the included studies will be assessed, and the overall strength of the evidence will be summarized (i.e., GRADE). A random effects model will be used for all pairwise meta-analyses (with a 95% confidence interval). A Bayesian network meta-analysis will explore the relative benefits between the various treatments. The review will be reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews incorporating Network Meta-Analyses (PRISMA-NMA) statement. This systematic review aims at identifying and evaluating therapies to treat bruxism. This systematic review may lead to several recommendations, for both patients and researchers, as which is the best therapy for a specific patient case and how future studies need to be designed, considering what is available now and what is the reality of the patient. PROSPERO CRD42015023308.

A common SCN5A variant is associated with PR interval and atrial fibrillation among African Americans.

PubMed

Ilkhanoff, Leonard; Arking, Dan E; Lemaitre, Rozenn N; Alonso, Alvaro; Chen, Lin Y; Durda, Peter; Hesselson, Stephanie E; Kerr, Kathleen F; Magnani, Jared W; Marcus, Gregory M; Schnabel, Renate B; Smith, J Gustav; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Sotoodehnia, Nona

2014-11-01

We examined the association of rs7626962 (S1103Y) or rs7629265, a variant in high linkage disequilibrium with S1103Y (r(2) = 0.87 - 1), with sudden cardiac death (SCD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) among African Americans. The SCN5A missense variant S1103Y has been associated with SCD among African Americans in small case-control studies, but larger population-based studies are needed to validate these findings. The association of this variant with AF has not been fully explored. Using genotyping data on over 7,000 African Americans from 5 cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC], Cleveland Family Study [CFS], Jackson Heart Study [JHS], Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA], Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS]), we examined the association of rs7629265 with electrocardiographic PR, QRS, and QT intervals, and with incident AF and SCD. We examined association of S1103Y (rs7626962) with SCD using a population-based case-control study of SCD Cardiac Arrest Blood Study (CABS). Meta-analyses across 5 cohorts demonstrated that rs7629265 was significantly associated with PR duration (β = -4.1 milliseconds; P = 2.2×10(-6) ), but not significantly associated with QRS or QT intervals. In meta-analyses of prospectively followed ARIC and CHS participants (n = 3,656), rs7629265 was associated with increased AF risk (n = 299 AF cases; HR = 1.74, P = 1.9 × 10(-4) ). By contrast, rs7629265 was not significantly associated with SCD risk in ARIC (n = 83 SCD cases; P = 0.30) or CHS (n = 54 SCD cases; P = 0.47). Similarly, S1103Y was not significantly associated with SCD risk in CABS (n = 225 SCD cases; P = 0.29). The common SCN5A variant, rs7629265, is associated with increased AF risk and shorter PR interval among African Americans. In contrast to prior reports, we found no evidence of association of rs7629265 or rs7626962 (S1103Y) with SCD risk in the general population. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of prophylactic amiodarone on clinical and economic outcomes after cardiothoracic surgery: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gillespie, Effie L; Coleman, Craig I; Sander, Stephen; Kluger, Jeffrey; Gryskiewicz, Kristen A; White, C Michael

2005-09-01

Two previous meta-analyses of amiodarone for prevention of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiothoracic surgery did not evaluate total hospital cost, concluded that data on stroke are incomplete, and did not evaluate the effect of clinical heterogeneity between trials. To conduct a meta-analysis examining amiodarone's prophylactic impact on cardiothoracic surgery POAF, length of stay (LOS), stroke, and total costs. Three reviewers conducted a systematic literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library (1966-SEPTEMBER 2004). Studies were included if they met the following criteria: (1) randomized controlled trial versus placebo/routine treatment, (2) coronary artery bypass graft and/or valvular surgery, (3) Jadad score > or = 3, (4) reported data on incidence of POAF or stroke, LOS, or total costs, (5) used electrocardiographic/Holter monitoring, and (6) monitored subjects for > or = 2 days. A random-effects model was utilized. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Fifteen trials were identified, including 1512 and 1429 patients in the amiodarone and control groups, respectively. Amiodarone reduced POAF (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.60) and decreased stroke (n = 8 studies), LOS (n = 10), and total costs (n = 6) (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.96; -0.73 days, 95% CI -0.95 to -0.51; and -dollar 1619, 95% CI -3395 to 156, respectively). Surgery type, beta-blocker use, route of administration, use of a fixed-effects model, or exclusion of unblinded/unpublished studies did not affect the overall results. No statistical heterogeneity was observed for any endpoint evaluated (p > 0.22 for all comparisons). Prophylactic treatment with amiodarone decreases patients' risk of POAF and stroke while reducing LOS.

Systematic Review for the 2017 ACC/AHA/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/AGS/APhA/ASH/ASPC/NMA/PCNA Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines.

PubMed

Reboussin, David M; Allen, Norrina B; Griswold, Michael E; Guallar, Eliseo; Hong, Yuling; Lackland, Daniel T; Miller, Edgar Pete R; Polonsky, Tamar; Thompson-Paul, Angela M; Vupputuri, Suma

2018-05-15

To review the literature systematically and perform meta-analyses to address these questions: 1) Is there evidence that self-measured blood pressure (BP) without other augmentation is superior to office-based measurement of BP for achieving better BP control or for preventing adverse clinical outcomes that are related to elevated BP? 2) What is the optimal target for BP lowering during antihypertensive therapy in adults? 3) In adults with hypertension, how do various antihypertensive drug classes differ in their benefits and harms compared with each other as first-line therapy? Electronic literature searches were performed by Doctor Evidence, a global medical evidence software and services company, across PubMed and EMBASE from 1966 to 2015 using key words and relevant subject headings for randomized controlled trials that met eligibility criteria defined for each question. We performed analyses using traditional frequentist statistical and Bayesian approaches, including random-effects Bayesian network meta-analyses. Our results suggest that: 1) There is a modest but significant improvement in systolic BP in randomized controlled trials of self-measured BP versus usual care at 6 but not 12 months, and for selected patients and their providers self-measured BP may be a helpful adjunct to routine office care. 2) systolic BP lowering to a target of <130 mm Hg may reduce the risk of several important outcomes including risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and major cardiovascular events. No class of medications (i.e., angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, or beta blockers) was significantly better than thiazides and thiazide-like diuretics as a first-line therapy for any outcome. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation and the American Heart Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of anti-fibrillogenic activity of iron(II) clathrochelates.

PubMed

Kovalska, Vladyslava B; Losytskyy, Mykhaylo Yu; Varzatskii, Oleg A; Cherepanov, Vsevolod V; Voloshin, Yan Z; Mokhir, Andriy A; Yarmoluk, Sergiy M; Volkov, Sergiy V

2014-03-15

The macrocyclic compounds mono- and bis-iron(II) clathrochelates were firstly studied as potential anti-fibrillogenic agents using fluorescent inhibitory assay, atomic force microscopy and flow cytometry. It is shown that presence of the clathrochelates leads to the change in kinetics of insulin fibrillization reaction and reduces the amount of formed fibrils (up to 70%). The nature of ribbed substituent could determine the activity of clathrochelates-the higher inhibitory effect is observed for compounds containing carboxybenzenesulfide groups, while the inhibitory properties only slightly depend on the size of complex species. The mono- and bis-clathrochelate derivatives of meta-mercaptobenzoic acid have close values of IC₅₀ namely 16 ± 2 and 24 ± 5 μM, respectively. The presence of clathrochelates decreases the fibril diameter from 5-12 nm for free insulin fibrils to 3-8 nm for these formed in the clathrochelate presence, it also prevents the lateral aggregation of mature fibrils and formation of superfibrillar clusters. However the addition of clathrochelate results in more heterogeneous (both by size and structure) insulin aggregates population as compared to the free insulin. This way, cage complexes-iron(II) clathrochelates are proposed as efficient agents able to suppress the protein aggregation processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General quantitative genetic methods for comparative biology: phylogenies, taxonomies and multi-trait models for continuous and categorical characters.

PubMed

Hadfield, J D; Nakagawa, S

2010-03-01

Although many of the statistical techniques used in comparative biology were originally developed in quantitative genetics, subsequent development of comparative techniques has progressed in relative isolation. Consequently, many of the new and planned developments in comparative analysis already have well-tested solutions in quantitative genetics. In this paper, we take three recent publications that develop phylogenetic meta-analysis, either implicitly or explicitly, and show how they can be considered as quantitative genetic models. We highlight some of the difficulties with the proposed solutions, and demonstrate that standard quantitative genetic theory and software offer solutions. We also show how results from Bayesian quantitative genetics can be used to create efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for phylogenetic mixed models, thereby extending their generality to non-Gaussian data. Of particular utility is the development of multinomial models for analysing the evolution of discrete traits, and the development of multi-trait models in which traits can follow different distributions. Meta-analyses often include a nonrandom collection of species for which the full phylogenetic tree has only been partly resolved. Using missing data theory, we show how the presented models can be used to correct for nonrandom sampling and show how taxonomies and phylogenies can be combined to give a flexible framework with which to model dependence.

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-02-20

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion.

Testing the Storm et al. (2010) meta-analysis using Bayesian and frequentist approaches: reply to Rouder et al. (2013).

PubMed

Storm, Lance; Tressoldi, Patrizio E; Utts, Jessica

2013-01-01

Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio's (2010) meta-analysis is supported only by a number of studies that used manual randomization, and (b) when these studies are excluded so that only investigations using automatic randomization are evaluated (and some additional studies previously omitted by Storm et al., 2010, are included), the evidence for psi is "unpersuasive." Rouder et al. used a Bayesian approach, and we adopted the same methodology, finding that our case is upheld. Because of recent updates and corrections, we reassessed the free-response databases of Storm et al. using a frequentist approach. We discuss and critique the assumptions and findings of Rouder et al. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test studies with interpretable priors.

PubMed

Guo, Jingyi; Riebler, Andrea; Rue, Håvard

2017-08-30

In a bivariate meta-analysis, the number of diagnostic studies involved is often very low so that frequentist methods may result in problems. Using Bayesian inference is particularly attractive as informative priors that add a small amount of information can stabilise the analysis without overwhelming the data. However, Bayesian analysis is often computationally demanding and the selection of the prior for the covariance matrix of the bivariate structure is crucial with little data. The integrated nested Laplace approximations method provides an efficient solution to the computational issues by avoiding any sampling, but the important question of priors remain. We explore the penalised complexity (PC) prior framework for specifying informative priors for the variance parameters and the correlation parameter. PC priors facilitate model interpretation and hyperparameter specification as expert knowledge can be incorporated intuitively. We conduct a simulation study to compare the properties and behaviour of differently defined PC priors to currently used priors in the field. The simulation study shows that the PC prior seems beneficial for the variance parameters. The use of PC priors for the correlation parameter results in more precise estimates when specified in a sensible neighbourhood around the truth. To investigate the usage of PC priors in practice, we reanalyse a meta-analysis using the telomerase marker for the diagnosis of bladder cancer and compare the results with those obtained by other commonly used modelling approaches. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Low Reporting Quality of the Meta-Analyses in Diagnostic Pathology.

PubMed

Liu, Xulei; Kinzler, Michael; Yuan, Jiangfan; He, Guozhong; Zhang, Lanjing

2017-03-01

- Little is known regarding the reporting quality of meta-analyses in diagnostic pathology. - To compare reporting quality of meta-analyses in diagnostic pathology and medicine and to examine factors associated with reporting quality of diagnostic pathology meta-analyses. - Meta-analyses were identified in 12 major diagnostic pathology journals without specifying years and 4 major medicine journals in 2006 and 2011 using PubMed. Reporting quality of meta-analyses was evaluated using the 27-item checklist of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement published in 2009. A higher PRISMA score indicates higher reporting quality. - Forty-one diagnostic pathology meta-analyses and 118 medicine meta-analyses were included. Overall, reporting quality of meta-analyses in diagnostic pathology was lower than that in medicine (median [interquartile range] = 22 [15, 25] versus 27 [23, 28], P < .001). Compared with medicine meta-analyses, diagnostic pathology meta-analyses less likely reported 23 of the 27 items (85.2%) on the PRISMA checklist, but more likely reported the data items. Higher reporting quality of diagnostic pathology meta-analyses was associated with recent publication years (later than 2009 versus 2009 or earlier, P = .002) and non-North American first authors (versus North American, P = .001), but not journal publisher's location (P = .11). Interestingly, reporting quality was not associated with adjusted citation ratio for meta-analyses in either diagnostic pathology or medicine (P = .40 and P = .09, respectively). - Meta-analyses in diagnostic pathology had lower reporting quality than those in medicine. Reporting quality of diagnostic pathology meta-analyses is linked to publication year and first author's location, but not to journal publisher's location or article's adjusted citation ratios. More research and education on meta-analysis methodology may improve the reporting quality of diagnostic pathology meta-analyses.

Oxidized quercetin inhibits α-synuclein fibrillization.

PubMed

Zhu, Min; Han, Shubo; Fink, Anthony L

2013-04-01

α-Synucein is a small (14 kDa), abundant, intrinsically disordered presynaptic protein, whose aggregation is believed to be a critical step in Parkinson's disease (PD). Oxidative stress is reported to be a risk factor for dopamine cell degeneration in PD. Flavonoids are suggested to be important antioxidant against oxidative stress. Flavonoids were reported to inhibit fibrillization and disaggregate the preformed fibrils of α-synucein, but the molecular mechanism was still not clear. Quercetin, a well-recognized flavonoid antioxidant, was tested for its inhibition of α-synucein aggregation by thioflavin T assay, light scattering measurement, size-exclusion high performance liquid chromatography, atomic force microscopy, etc. The pre-incubated quercetin exhibited a noticeably stronger inhibition behavior to the fibril formation than that of the freshly prepared. The inhibition is significant in the presence of ortho- and para-benzenediol isomers and inconsiderable in the presence of meta-isomer. The oxidized quercetin species (i.e., chalcantrione, benzyfuranone, quercetinchinone, and other derivatives) cause stronger inhibition than quercetin does because of the elevated polarity and hydrophilicity. Presence of quercetin disaggregates α-synucein fibrils, rather than oligomers and amorphous aggregations. Instead of the antioxidant activity, the 1:1 covalent binding of quercetin with α-synucein, and the increased hydophilicity of the covalently modified α-synucein oligomers or monomers, account for the inhibition of α-synucein fibrillation. Clarification of the molecular mechanism of the inhibition and disaggregation may help to screen safer and more effective flavonoid therapeutic in combating PD. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Uncertainty in the Bayesian meta-analysis of normally distributed surrogate endpoints

PubMed Central

Thompson, John R; Spata, Enti; Abrams, Keith R

2015-01-01

We investigate the effect of the choice of parameterisation of meta-analytic models and related uncertainty on the validation of surrogate endpoints. Different meta-analytical approaches take into account different levels of uncertainty which may impact on the accuracy of the predictions of treatment effect on the target outcome from the treatment effect on a surrogate endpoint obtained from these models. A range of Bayesian as well as frequentist meta-analytical methods are implemented using illustrative examples in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis, where the treatment effect on disability worsening is the primary outcome of interest in healthcare evaluation, while the effect on relapse rate is considered as a potential surrogate to the effect on disability progression, and in gastric cancer, where the disease-free survival has been shown to be a good surrogate endpoint to the overall survival. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the impact of distributional assumptions on the predictions. Also, sensitivity to modelling assumptions and performance of the models were investigated by simulation. Although different methods can predict mean true outcome almost equally well, inclusion of uncertainty around all relevant parameters of the model may lead to less certain and hence more conservative predictions. When investigating endpoints as candidate surrogate outcomes, a careful choice of the meta-analytical approach has to be made. Models underestimating the uncertainty of available evidence may lead to overoptimistic predictions which can then have an effect on decisions made based on such predictions. PMID:26271918

Uncertainty in the Bayesian meta-analysis of normally distributed surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Spata, Enti; Abrams, Keith R

2017-10-01

We investigate the effect of the choice of parameterisation of meta-analytic models and related uncertainty on the validation of surrogate endpoints. Different meta-analytical approaches take into account different levels of uncertainty which may impact on the accuracy of the predictions of treatment effect on the target outcome from the treatment effect on a surrogate endpoint obtained from these models. A range of Bayesian as well as frequentist meta-analytical methods are implemented using illustrative examples in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, where the treatment effect on disability worsening is the primary outcome of interest in healthcare evaluation, while the effect on relapse rate is considered as a potential surrogate to the effect on disability progression, and in gastric cancer, where the disease-free survival has been shown to be a good surrogate endpoint to the overall survival. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the impact of distributional assumptions on the predictions. Also, sensitivity to modelling assumptions and performance of the models were investigated by simulation. Although different methods can predict mean true outcome almost equally well, inclusion of uncertainty around all relevant parameters of the model may lead to less certain and hence more conservative predictions. When investigating endpoints as candidate surrogate outcomes, a careful choice of the meta-analytical approach has to be made. Models underestimating the uncertainty of available evidence may lead to overoptimistic predictions which can then have an effect on decisions made based on such predictions.

The Mass Production of Redundant, Misleading, and Conflicted Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses.

PubMed

Ioannidis, John P A

2016-09-01

Currently, there is massive production of unnecessary, misleading, and conflicted systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Instead of promoting evidence-based medicine and health care, these instruments often serve mostly as easily produced publishable units or marketing tools. Suboptimal systematic reviews and meta-analyses can be harmful given the major prestige and influence these types of studies have acquired. The publication of systematic reviews and meta-analyses should be realigned to remove biases and vested interests and to integrate them better with the primary production of evidence. Currently, most systematic reviews and meta-analyses are done retrospectively with fragmented published information. This article aims to explore the growth of published systematic reviews and meta-analyses and to estimate how often they are redundant, misleading, or serving conflicted interests. Data included information from PubMed surveys and from empirical evaluations of meta-analyses. Publication of systematic reviews and meta-analyses has increased rapidly. In the period January 1, 1986, to December 4, 2015, PubMed tags 266,782 items as "systematic reviews" and 58,611 as "meta-analyses." Annual publications between 1991 and 2014 increased 2,728% for systematic reviews and 2,635% for meta-analyses versus only 153% for all PubMed-indexed items. Currently, probably more systematic reviews of trials than new randomized trials are published annually. Most topics addressed by meta-analyses of randomized trials have overlapping, redundant meta-analyses; same-topic meta-analyses may exceed 20 sometimes. Some fields produce massive numbers of meta-analyses; for example, 185 meta-analyses of antidepressants for depression were published between 2007 and 2014. These meta-analyses are often produced either by industry employees or by authors with industry ties and results are aligned with sponsor interests. China has rapidly become the most prolific producer of English-language, PubMed-indexed meta-analyses. The most massive presence of Chinese meta-analyses is on genetic associations (63% of global production in 2014), where almost all results are misleading since they combine fragmented information from mostly abandoned era of candidate genes. Furthermore, many contracting companies working on evidence synthesis receive industry contracts to produce meta-analyses, many of which probably remain unpublished. Many other meta-analyses have serious flaws. Of the remaining, most have weak or insufficient evidence to inform decision making. Few systematic reviews and meta-analyses are both non-misleading and useful. The production of systematic reviews and meta-analyses has reached epidemic proportions. Possibly, the large majority of produced systematic reviews and meta-analyses are unnecessary, misleading, and/or conflicted. © 2016 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Recent meta-analyses neglect previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses about the same topic: a systematic examination.

PubMed

Helfer, Bartosz; Prosser, Aaron; Samara, Myrto T; Geddes, John R; Cipriani, Andrea; Davis, John M; Mavridis, Dimitris; Salanti, Georgia; Leucht, Stefan

2015-04-14

As the number of systematic reviews is growing rapidly, we systematically investigate whether meta-analyses published in leading medical journals present an outline of available evidence by referring to previous meta-analyses and systematic reviews. We searched PubMed for recent meta-analyses of pharmacological treatments published in high impact factor journals. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses were identified with electronic searches of keywords and by searching reference sections. We analyzed the number of meta-analyses and systematic reviews that were cited, described and discussed in each recent meta-analysis. Moreover, we investigated publication characteristics that potentially influence the referencing practices. We identified 52 recent meta-analyses and 242 previous meta-analyses on the same topics. Of these, 66% of identified previous meta-analyses were cited, 36% described, and only 20% discussed by recent meta-analyses. The probability of citing a previous meta-analysis was positively associated with its publication in a journal with a higher impact factor (odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 2.10) and more recent publication year (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.37). Additionally, the probability of a previous study being described by the recent meta-analysis was inversely associated with the concordance of results (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.17 to 0.88), and the probability of being discussed was increased for previous studies that employed meta-analytic methods (odds ratio, 32.36; 95% confidence interval, 2.00 to 522.85). Meta-analyses on pharmacological treatments do not consistently refer to and discuss findings of previous meta-analyses on the same topic. Such neglect can lead to research waste and be confusing for readers. Journals should make the discussion of related meta-analyses mandatory.

Intuitive Logic Revisited: New Data and a Bayesian Mixed Model Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Kellen, David

2014-01-01

Recent research on syllogistic reasoning suggests that the logical status (valid vs. invalid) of even difficult syllogisms can be intuitively detected via differences in conceptual fluency between logically valid and invalid syllogisms when participants are asked to rate how much they like a conclusion following from a syllogism (Morsanyi & Handley, 2012). These claims of an intuitive logic are at odds with most theories on syllogistic reasoning which posit that detecting the logical status of difficult syllogisms requires effortful and deliberate cognitive processes. We present new data replicating the effects reported by Morsanyi and Handley, but show that this effect is eliminated when controlling for a possible confound in terms of conclusion content. Additionally, we reanalyze three studies () without this confound with a Bayesian mixed model meta-analysis (i.e., controlling for participant and item effects) which provides evidence for the null-hypothesis and against Morsanyi and Handley's claim. PMID:24755777

Minimally Invasive Extracorporeal Circulation Circuit Is Not Inferior to Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Meta-Analysis Using the Bayesian Method.

PubMed

Winkler, Bernhard; Heinisch, Paul P; Gahl, Brigitta; Aghlmandi, Soheila; Jenni, Hans Jörg; Carrel, Thierry P

2017-01-01

The pathophysiologic side effects of cardiopulmonary bypass have already been identified. Minimally invasive extracorporeal circulation technologies (MiECT) and off-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery (OPCABG) aim to reduce these problems. This meta-analysis provides a comparison of MiECT and OPCABG in randomized and observational studies. A fully probabilistic, Bayesian approach of primary and secondary endpoints was conducted. MiECT does not give inferior results when compared with OPCABG. However, there is a trend to borderline significantly higher blood loss in this group in randomized controlled trials. The question whether MiECT is equivalent to OPCABG can be answered with the affirmative, but long-term follow-up data are needed to detect any advantage over time. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preventing Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Oesterle, Adam; Weber, Benjamin; Tung, Roderick; Choudhry, Niteesh K; Singh, Jagmeet P; Upadhyay, Gaurav A

2018-07-01

Although postoperative atrial fibrillation is common after noncardiac surgery, there is a paucity of data regarding prophylaxis. We sought to determine whether pharmacologic prophylaxis reduces the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery. We performed an electronic search of Ovid MEDLINE, the Cochrane central register of controlled trials database, and SCOPUS from inception to September 7, 2016 and included prospective randomized studies in which patients in sinus rhythm underwent noncardiac surgery and examined the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation as well as secondary safety outcomes. Twenty-one studies including 11,608 patients were included. Types of surgery included vascular surgery (3465 patients), thoracic surgery (2757 patients), general surgery (2292 patients), orthopedic surgery (1756 patients), and other surgery (1338 patients). Beta-blockers (relative risk [RR] 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.87), amiodarone (RR 0.42; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.67), and statins (RR 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.68) reduced postoperative atrial fibrillation compared with placebo or active controls. Calcium channel blockers (RR 0.55; 95% CI, 0.30 to 1.01), digoxin (RR 1.62; 95% CI, 0.95 to 2.76), and magnesium (RR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.23 to 2.33) had no statistically significant effect on postoperative atrial fibrillation incidence. The incidence of adverse events was comparable across agents, except for increased mortality (RR 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.37) and bradycardia (RR 2.74; 95% CI, 2.19 to 3.43) in patients receiving beta-blockers. Pharmacologic prophylaxis with amiodarone, beta-blockers, or statins reduces the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery. Amiodarone and statins have a relatively low overall risk of short-term adverse events. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of RAAS blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high CVD risk subjects with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis and systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Chaugai, Sandip; Sherpa, Lhamo Yanchang; Sepehry, Amir A; Arima, Hisatomi; Wang, Dao Wen

2016-06-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that atrial fibrillation significantly increases the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects. Application of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers for prevention of recurrence of atrial fibrillation and adverse clinical outcomes in subjects with atrial fibrillation is a theoretically appealing concept. However, results of clinical trials evaluating the effect of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockers on adverse clinical outcomes in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation remain inconclusive.A pooled study of 6 randomized controlled trials assessing the efficacy of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockers on subjects with atrial fibrillation was performed.A total of 6 randomized controlled trials enrolled a total of 53,510 patients followed for 1 to 5 years. RAAS blockade therapy was associated with 14% reduction in the incidence of heart failure (OR: 0.86, [95%CI: 0.76- 0.97], P=0.018) and 17% reduction in the incidence of CVE (OR: 0.83, [95%CI: 0.70-0.99], P = 0.038). The corresponding decline in absolute risk against heart failure (ARR: 1.4%, [95%CI: 0.2-2.6%], P = 0.018) and CVE (ARR: 3.5%, [95%CI: 0.0-6.9%], P = 0.045) in the AF group was much higher than the non-AF group for heart failure (ARR: 0.4%, [95%CI: 0.0-0.7%], P = 0.057) and CVE (ARR: 1.6%, [95%CI: -0.1% to 3.3%], P = 0.071). No significant effect was noted on all-cause or cardiovascular mortality, stroke, or myocardial infarction.This study suggests that RAAS blockade offers protection against heart failure and cardiovascular events in high cardiovascular disease risk subjects with atrial fibrillation.

The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2013-04-01

Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty of the control forecast; accordingly, the performance of the probabilistic forecasts differs based on the source of the underlying deterministic control forecasts.

Simulation-based estimation of mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis via Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC).

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Reis, Isildinha M

2015-08-12

When conducting a meta-analysis of a continuous outcome, estimated means and standard deviations from the selected studies are required in order to obtain an overall estimate of the mean effect and its confidence interval. If these quantities are not directly reported in the publications, they must be estimated from other reported summary statistics, such as the median, the minimum, the maximum, and quartiles. We propose a simulation-based estimation approach using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) technique for estimating mean and standard deviation based on various sets of summary statistics found in published studies. We conduct a simulation study to compare the proposed ABC method with the existing methods of Hozo et al. (2005), Bland (2015), and Wan et al. (2014). In the estimation of the standard deviation, our ABC method performs better than the other methods when data are generated from skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The corresponding average relative error (ARE) approaches zero as sample size increases. In data generated from the normal distribution, our ABC performs well. However, the Wan et al. method is best for estimating standard deviation under normal distribution. In the estimation of the mean, our ABC method is best regardless of assumed distribution. ABC is a flexible method for estimating the study-specific mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis, especially with underlying skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The ABC method can be applied using other reported summary statistics such as the posterior mean and 95 % credible interval when Bayesian analysis has been employed.

Exposure to isoflavone-containing soy products and endothelial function: a Bayesian meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Beavers, D P; Beavers, K M; Miller, M; Stamey, J; Messina, M J

2012-03-01

To determine whether and to what degree exposure to isoflavone-containing soy products affects EF. Endothelial dysfunction has been identified as an independent coronary heart disease risk factor and a strong predictor of long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Data on the effects of exposure to isoflavone-containing soy products on EF are conflicting. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using the PUBMED database (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD) inclusively through August 21, 2009 on RCTs using the keywords: soy, isoflavone, phytoestrogen, EF, flow mediated vasodilation, and FMD. A Bayesian meta-analysis was conducted to provide a comprehensive account of the effect of isoflavone-containing soy products on EF, as measured by FMD. A total of 17 RCTs were selected as having sufficient data for study inclusion. The overall mean absolute change in FMD (95% Bayesian CI) for isoflavone-containing soy product interventions was 1.15% (-0.52, 2.75). When the effects of separate interventions were considered, the treatment effect for isolated isoflavones was 1.98% (0.07, 3.97) compared to 0.72% (-1.39, 2.90) for isoflavone-containing soy protein. The models were not improved when considering study-specific effects such as cuff measurement location, prescribed dietary modification, and impaired baseline FMD. Cumulative evidence from the RCTs included in this meta-analysis indicates that exposure to soy isoflavones can modestly, but significantly, improve EF as measured by FMD. Therefore, exposure to isoflavone supplements may beneficially influence vascular health. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-01-01

Objectives We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. Study eligibility criteria This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. Primary and secondary outcome measures We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. Results We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). Conclusions hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion. PMID:24556243

Meta-analysis of gender differences in residual stroke risk and major bleeding in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants.

PubMed

Pancholy, Samir B; Sharma, Parikshit S; Pancholy, Dipti S; Patel, Tejas M; Callans, David J; Marchlinski, Francis E

2014-02-01

Studies comparing gender-specific outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have reported conflicting results. Gender differences in cerebrovascular accident/systemic embolism (CVA/SE) or major bleeding outcomes with novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) use are not known. The goal of this analysis was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating gender differences in residual risk of CVA/SE and major bleeding outcomes in patients with nonvalvular AF treated with either warfarin or NOAC. Sixty-four randomized studies were identified using keywords "gender," "AF," and "CVA." Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-analysis method, 6 studies met criteria for inclusion in this meta-analysis. CVA/SE and major bleeding outcomes were separately analyzed in cohorts receiving warfarin and NOAC agents, comparing men with women. Women with AF taking warfarin were at a significantly greater residual risk of CVA/SE compared with men (odds ratio 1.279, 95% confidence interval 1.111 to 1.473, Z = -3.428, p = 0.001). No gender difference in residual risk of CVA/SE was noted in patients with AF receiving NOAC agents (odds ratio 1.146, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.354, p = 0.109). Major bleeding was less frequent in women with AF treated with NOAC. In conclusion, women with AF treated with warfarin have a greater residual risk of CVA/SE and an equivalent major bleeding risk, whereas those treated with NOAC agents deemed superior to warfarin are at equivalent residual risk of CVA/SE and less major bleeding risk compared with men. These results suggest an increased net clinical benefit of NOAC agents compared with warfarin in treating women with AF. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pulmonary Vein Isolation Compared to Rate Control in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vaidya, Kaivan; Arnott, Clare; Russell, Anne; Masson, Philip; Sy, Raymond W; Patel, Sanjay

2015-08-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) often coexists with congestive cardiac failure (CCF), with multiple treatment options available. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised control trials (RCT) comparing pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), pharmacological rate control, and atrioventricular junction ablation with pacemaker insertion (AVJAP) for AF, with a subgroup analysis in patients with CCF. We analysed changes in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) score, six-minute walk distance (6MWD), treadmill exercise time, and treatment complications. Results were expressed as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% Confidence-Intervals (95%CI). We included seven RCT (425 participants). PVI was associated with a greater increase in LVEF (WMD+6.5%, 95%CI:+0.6to+12.5) and decrease in MLHFQ score (WMD-11.0, 95%CI:-2.6to-19.4) than pharmacological rate control in patients with CCF. PVI was also associated with a greater increase in LVEF (WMD+9.0%, 95%CI:+6.3to+11.7) and 6MWD (WMD+55.0metres, 95%CI:+34.9to+75.1), and decrease in MLHFQ score (WMD-22.0, 95%CI:-17.0to-27.0), compared to AVJAP in patients with CCF. Irrespective of cardiac function, pharmacological rate control had similar effects to AVJAP on LVEF (WMD+0.6%, 95%CI:-8.3to+9.4) and treadmill exercise time (WMD+0.5minutes, 95%CI:-0.4to+1.3). Our results support the clinical implementation of PVI over AVJAP or pharmacological rate control in AF patients with CCF, who may or may not have already trialled pharmacological rhythm control. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation Improves the Quality of Life Measured with a Short Form-36 Questionnaire in Atrial Fibrillation Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Choi, Jong-Il; Kim, Young-Hoon

2016-01-01

Background The main purpose of performing radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is to improve the quality of life (QoL) and alleviate AF-related symptoms. We aimed to determine the qualitative and quantitative effects of RFCA on the QoL in AF patients. Methods We performed a systemic review and meta-analysis using a random effects model. We searched for the studies that reported the physical component summary score (PCS) and mental component summary score (MCS) of the short form-36, a validated system to assess and quantify the QoL, before and after RFCA in AF patients. PCS and MCS are T-scores with a mean of 50 and standard deviation of 10. Results Of the 470 studies identified through systematic search, we included 13 studies for pre-RFCA vs. the post-RFCA analysis and 5 studies for treatment success vs. AF recurrence analyses. In the pre-RFCA vs. post-RFCA analysis, RFCA was associated with a significant increase in both the PCS (weighted mean difference [WMD] = 6.33 [4.81–7.84]; p < 0.001) and MCS (WMD = 7.80 [6.15–9.44]; p < 0.001). The ΔPCS (post-RFCA PCS–pre-RFCA PCS) and ΔMCS values were used for the treatment success vs. AF recurrence analysis. Patients with successful ablation had a higher ΔPCS (WMD = 7.46 [4.44–10.49]; p < 0.001) and ΔMCS (WMD = 7.59 [4.94–10.24]; p < 0.001). Conclusions RFCA is associated with a significant increase in the PCS and MCS in AF patients. Patients without AF recurrence after RFCA had a better improvement in the PCS and MCS than patients who had AF recurrence. PMID:27681507

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of new oral anticoagulants with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of randomised trials.

PubMed

Ruff, Christian T; Giugliano, Robert P; Braunwald, Eugene; Hoffman, Elaine B; Deenadayalu, Naveen; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Camm, A John; Weitz, Jeffrey I; Lewis, Basil S; Parkhomenko, Alexander; Yamashita, Takeshi; Antman, Elliott M

2014-03-15

Four new oral anticoagulants compare favourably with warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation; however, the balance between efficacy and safety in subgroups needs better definition. We aimed to assess the relative benefit of new oral anticoagulants in key subgroups, and the effects on important secondary outcomes. We searched Medline from Jan 1, 2009, to Nov 19, 2013, limiting searches to phase 3, randomised trials of patients with atrial fibrillation who were randomised to receive new oral anticoagulants or warfarin, and trials in which both efficacy and safety outcomes were reported. We did a prespecified meta-analysis of all 71,683 participants included in the RE-LY, ROCKET AF, ARISTOTLE, and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trials. The main outcomes were stroke and systemic embolic events, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, major bleeding, intracranial haemorrhage, and gastrointestinal bleeding. We calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs for each outcome. We did subgroup analyses to assess whether differences in patient and trial characteristics affected outcomes. We used a random-effects model to compare pooled outcomes and tested for heterogeneity. 42,411 participants received a new oral anticoagulant and 29,272 participants received warfarin. New oral anticoagulants significantly reduced stroke or systemic embolic events by 19% compared with warfarin (RR 0·81, 95% CI 0·73-0·91; p<0·0001), mainly driven by a reduction in haemorrhagic stroke (0·49, 0·38-0·64; p<0·0001). New oral anticoagulants also significantly reduced all-cause mortality (0·90, 0·85-0·95; p=0·0003) and intracranial haemorrhage (0·48, 0·39-0·59; p<0·0001), but increased gastrointestinal bleeding (1·25, 1·01-1·55; p=0·04). We noted no heterogeneity for stroke or systemic embolic events in important subgroups, but there was a greater relative reduction in major bleeding with new oral anticoagulants when the centre-based time in therapeutic range was less than 66% than when it was 66% or more (0·69, 0·59-0·81 vs 0·93, 0·76-1·13; p for interaction 0·022). Low-dose new oral anticoagulant regimens showed similar overall reductions in stroke or systemic embolic events to warfarin (1·03, 0·84-1·27; p=0·74), and a more favourable bleeding profile (0·65, 0·43-1·00; p=0·05), but significantly more ischaemic strokes (1·28, 1·02-1·60; p=0·045). This meta-analysis is the first to include data for all four new oral anticoagulants studied in the pivotal phase 3 clinical trials for stroke prevention or systemic embolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation. New oral anticoagulants had a favourable risk-benefit profile, with significant reductions in stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, and mortality, and with similar major bleeding as for warfarin, but increased gastrointestinal bleeding. The relative efficacy and safety of new oral anticoagulants was consistent across a wide range of patients. Our findings offer clinicians a more comprehensive picture of the new oral anticoagulants as a therapeutic option to reduce the risk of stroke in this patient population. None. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reporting completeness and transparency of meta-analyses of depression screening tool accuracy: A comparison of meta-analyses published before and after the PRISMA statement.

PubMed

Rice, Danielle B; Kloda, Lorie A; Shrier, Ian; Thombs, Brett D

2016-08-01

Meta-analyses that are conducted rigorously and reported completely and transparently can provide accurate evidence to inform the best possible healthcare decisions. Guideline makers have raised concerns about the utility of existing evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of depression screening tools. The objective of our study was to evaluate the transparency and completeness of reporting in meta-analyses of the diagnostic accuracy of depression screening tools using the PRISMA tool adapted for diagnostic test accuracy meta-analyses. We searched MEDLINE and PsycINFO from January 1, 2005 through March 13, 2016 for recent meta-analyses in any language on the diagnostic accuracy of depression screening tools. Two reviewers independently assessed the transparency in reporting using the PRISMA tool with appropriate adaptations made for studies of diagnostic test accuracy. We identified 21 eligible meta-analyses. Twelve of 21 meta-analyses complied with at least 50% of adapted PRISMA items. Of 30 adapted PRISMA items, 11 were fulfilled by ≥80% of included meta-analyses, 3 by 50-79% of meta-analyses, 7 by 25-45% of meta-analyses, and 9 by <25%. On average, post-PRISMA meta-analyses complied with 17 of 30 items compared to 13 of 30 items pre-PRISMA. Deficiencies in the transparency of reporting in meta-analyses of the diagnostic test accuracy of depression screening tools of meta-analyses were identified. Authors, reviewers, and editors should adhere to the PRISMA statement to improve the reporting of meta-analyses of the diagnostic accuracy of depression screening tools. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a multi-cohort study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T; Batty, G David; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jokela, Markus; Alfredsson, Lars; Bjorner, Jakob B; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Dragano, Nico; Fransson, Eleonor I; Heikkilä, Katriina; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kumari, Meena; Madsen, Ida E H; Nielsen, Martin L; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H; Pentti, Jaana; Rugulies, Reiner; Salo, Paula; Shipley, Martin J; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter; Westerlund, Hugo; Steptoe, Andrew; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark; Ferrie, Jane E; Virtanen, Marianna; Tabak, Adam G

2017-09-07

Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working long hours (≥55 per week) and those working standard 35-40 h/week. In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium, the study population was 85 494 working men and women (mean age 43.4 years) with no recorded atrial fibrillation. Working hours were assessed at study baseline (1991-2004). Mean follow-up for incident atrial fibrillation was 10 years and cases were defined using data on electrocardiograms, hospital records, drug reimbursement registers, and death certificates. We identified 1061 new cases of atrial fibrillation (10-year cumulative incidence 12.4 per 1000). After adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic status, individuals working long hours had a 1.4-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with those working standard hours (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.13-1.80, P = 0.003). There was no significant heterogeneity between the cohort-specific effect estimates (I2 = 0%, P = 0.66) and the finding remained after excluding participants with coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline or during the follow-up (N = 2006, hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.05-1.76, P = 0.0180). Adjustment for potential confounding factors, such as obesity, risky alcohol use and high blood pressure, had little impact on this association. Individuals who worked long hours were more likely to develop atrial fibrillation than those working standard hours. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Long working hours as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation: a multi-cohort study

PubMed Central

Kivimäki, Mika; Nyberg, Solja T.; Batty, G. David; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jokela, Markus; Alfredsson, Lars; Bjorner, Jakob B.; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Dragano, Nico; Fransson, Eleonor I.; Heikkilä, Katriina; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kumari, Meena; Madsen, Ida E.H.; Nielsen, Martin L.; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H.; Pentti, Jaana; Rugulies, Reiner; Salo, Paula; Shipley, Martin J.; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter; Westerlund, Hugo; Steptoe, Andrew; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Hamer, Mark; Ferrie, Jane E.; Virtanen, Marianna; Tabak, Adam G.

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Studies suggest that people who work long hours are at increased risk of stroke, but the association of long working hours with atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia and a risk factor for stroke, is unknown. We examined the risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals working long hours (≥55 per week) and those working standard 35–40 h/week. Methods and results In this prospective multi-cohort study from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium, the study population was 85 494 working men and women (mean age 43.4 years) with no recorded atrial fibrillation. Working hours were assessed at study baseline (1991–2004). Mean follow-up for incident atrial fibrillation was 10 years and cases were defined using data on electrocardiograms, hospital records, drug reimbursement registers, and death certificates. We identified 1061 new cases of atrial fibrillation (10-year cumulative incidence 12.4 per 1000). After adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic status, individuals working long hours had a 1.4-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with those working standard hours (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.13–1.80, P = 0.003). There was no significant heterogeneity between the cohort-specific effect estimates (I2 = 0%, P = 0.66) and the finding remained after excluding participants with coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline or during the follow-up (N = 2006, hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.05–1.76, P = 0.0180). Adjustment for potential confounding factors, such as obesity, risky alcohol use and high blood pressure, had little impact on this association. Conclusion Individuals who worked long hours were more likely to develop atrial fibrillation than those working standard hours. PMID:28911189

Chocolate consumption and risk of atrial fibrillation: Two cohort studies and a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Larsson, Susanna C; Drca, Nikola; Jensen-Urstad, Mats; Wolk, Alicja

2018-01-01

Chocolate consumption has been inconsistently associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the association between chocolate consumption and risk of AF in Swedish adults from two cohort studies and conducted a meta-analysis to summarize available evidence from cohort studies on this topic. Our study population comprised 40,009 men from the Cohort of Swedish Men and 32,486 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort. Incident AF cases were ascertained through linkage with the Swedish National Patient Register. Published cohort studies of chocolate consumption in relation to risk of AF were identified by a PubMed search through September 14, 2017. During a mean follow-up of 14.6 years, AF was diagnosed in 9978 Swedish men and women. Compared with non-consumers, the multivariable hazard ratio of AF for those in the highest category of chocolate consumption (≥3-4 servings/week) was 0.96 (95% CI 0.88-1.04). In a random-effects meta-analysis of 5 cohort studies, including 180,454 participants and 16,356 AF cases, the hazard ratios of AF were 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.01) per 2 servings/week increase in chocolate consumption and 0.96 (95% CI 0.90-1.03) for the highest versus lowest category of chocolate consumption. Available data provide no evidence of an association of chocolate consumption with risk of AF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation in Portugal: Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Caldeira, Daniel; Barra, Márcio; David, Cláudio; Costa, João; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Pinto, Fausto J

2014-09-01

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is an effective treatment in the prevention of thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this review was to estimate the prevalence of OAC therapy in patients with AF in Portugal. MEDLINE, the Index of Portuguese Medical Journals and SIBUL (the Bibliographic Catalog of the Integrated Library System of the University of Lisbon) were searched for Portuguese observational studies reporting the proportion of anticoagulated patients with AF. The pooled estimated prevalence of anticoagulated patients and respective 95% confidence interval (CI) were determined by means of a meta-analysis. Seven studies were included for analysis, of which four were conducted in a hospital environment and three in the general community. These studies enrolled a total of 891 patients with AF. The pooled estimated prevalence of anticoagulated patients was 40% (95% CI: 32-48%). The prevalence of OAC in Portuguese AF patients is low. There is a need to promote change in OAC prescribing habits for AF patients in Portugal, in accordance with international guidelines. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Systematic overview and critical appraisal of meta-analyses of interventions in intensive care medicine.

PubMed

Koster, T M; Wetterslev, J; Gluud, C; Keus, F; van der Horst, I C C

2018-05-24

Meta-analysed intervention effect estimates are perceived to represent the highest level of evidence. However, such effects and the randomized clinical trials which are included in them need critical appraisal before the effects can be trusted. Critical appraisal of a predefined set of all meta-analyses on interventions in intensive care medicine to assess their quality and assessed the risks of bias in those meta-analyses having the best quality. We conducted a systematic search to select all meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials on interventions used in intensive care medicine. Selected meta-analyses were critically appraised for basic scientific criteria, (1) presence of an available protocol, (2) report of a full search strategy, and (3) use of any bias risk assessment of included trials. All meta-analyses which qualified these criteria were scrutinized by full "Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews" ROBIS evaluation of 4 domains of risks of bias, and a "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses" PRISMA evaluation. We identified 467 meta-analyses. A total of 56 meta-analyses complied with these basic scientific criteria. We scrutinized the risks of bias in the 56 meta-analyses by full ROBIS evaluation and a PRISMA evaluation. Only 4 meta-analyses scored low risk of bias in all the 4 ROBIS domains and 41 meta-analyses reported all 27 items of the PRISMA checklist. In contrast with what might be perceived as the highest level of evidence only 0.9% of all meta-analyses were judged to have overall low risk of bias. © 2018 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Posttest Probability of Parotid Fine-Needle Aspiration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, C Carrie; Jethwa, Ashok R; Khariwala, Samir S; Johnson, Jonas; Shin, Jennifer J

2016-01-01

(1) To analyze the sensitivity and specificity of fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in distinguishing benign from malignant parotid disease. (2) To determine the anticipated posttest probability of malignancy and probability of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology with parotid FNA. Independently corroborated computerized searches of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register were performed. These were supplemented with manual searches and input from content experts. Inclusion/exclusion criteria specified diagnosis of parotid mass, intervention with both FNA and surgical excision, and enumeration of both cytologic and surgical histopathologic results. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and posttest probability of malignancy. Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I(2) statistic. Meta-analysis was performed via a 2-level mixed logistic regression model. Bayesian nomograms were plotted via pooled likelihood ratios. The systematic review yielded 70 criterion-meeting studies, 63 of which contained data that allowed for computation of numerical outcomes (n = 5647 patients; level 2a) and consideration of meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed in studies that were prospective, involved consecutive patients, described the FNA technique utilized, and used ultrasound guidance. The I(2) point estimate was >70% for all analyses, except within prospectively obtained and ultrasound-guided results. Among the prospective subgroup, the pooled analysis demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.882 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.509-0.982) and a specificity of 0.995 (95% CI, 0.960-0.999). The probabilities of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology were 0.053 (95% CI, 0.030-0.075) and 0.147 (95% CI, 0.106-0.188), respectively. FNA has moderate sensitivity and high specificity in differentiating malignant from benign parotid lesions. Considerable heterogeneity is present among studies. © American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Posttest Probability of Parotid Fine-Needle Aspiration: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, C. Carrie; Jethwa, Ashok R.; Khariwala, Samir S.; Johnson, Jonas; Shin, Jennifer J.

2016-01-01

Objectives (1) To analyze the sensitivity and specificity of fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in distinguishing benign from malignant parotid disease. (2) To determine the anticipated posttest probability of malignancy and probability of non-diagnostic and indeterminate cytology with parotid FNA. Data Sources Independently corroborated computerized searches of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register were performed. These were supplemented with manual searches and input from content experts. Review Methods Inclusion/exclusion criteria specified diagnosis of parotid mass, intervention with both FNA and surgical excision, and enumeration of both cytologic and surgical histopathologic results. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and posttest probability of malignancy. Heterogeneity was evaluated with the I2 statistic. Meta-analysis was performed via a 2-level mixed logistic regression model. Bayesian nomograms were plotted via pooled likelihood ratios. Results The systematic review yielded 70 criterion-meeting studies, 63 of which contained data that allowed for computation of numerical outcomes (n = 5647 patients; level 2a) and consideration of meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed in studies that were prospective, involved consecutive patients, described the FNA technique utilized, and used ultrasound guidance. The I2 point estimate was >70% for all analyses, except within prospectively obtained and ultrasound-guided results. Among the prospective subgroup, the pooled analysis demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.882 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.509–0.982) and a specificity of 0.995 (95% CI, 0.960–0.999). The probabilities of nondiagnostic and indeterminate cytology were 0.053 (95% CI, 0.030–0.075) and 0.147 (95% CI, 0.106–0.188), respectively. Conclusion FNA has moderate sensitivity and high specificity in differentiating malignant from benign parotid lesions. Considerable heterogeneity is present among studies. PMID:26428476

A matrix-based method of moments for fitting the multivariate random effects model for meta-analysis and meta-regression

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Riley, Richard D

2013-01-01

Multivariate meta-analysis is becoming more commonly used. Methods for fitting the multivariate random effects model include maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, Bayesian estimation and multivariate generalisations of the standard univariate method of moments. Here, we provide a new multivariate method of moments for estimating the between-study covariance matrix with the properties that (1) it allows for either complete or incomplete outcomes and (2) it allows for covariates through meta-regression. Further, for complete data, it is invariant to linear transformations. Our method reduces to the usual univariate method of moments, proposed by DerSimonian and Laird, in a single dimension. We illustrate our method and compare it with some of the alternatives using a simulation study and a real example. PMID:23401213

Meta-analysis of thirty-two case-control and two ecological radon studies of lung cancer.

PubMed

Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Fornalski, Krzysztof W; Reszczynska, Joanna

2018-03-01

A re-analysis has been carried out of thirty-two case-control and two ecological studies concerning the influence of radon, a radioactive gas, on the risk of lung cancer. Three mathematically simplest dose-response relationships (models) were tested: constant (zero health effect), linear, and parabolic (linear-quadratic). Health effect end-points reported in the analysed studies are odds ratios or relative risk ratios, related either to morbidity or mortality. In our preliminary analysis, we show that the results of dose-response fitting are qualitatively (within uncertainties, given as error bars) the same, whichever of these health effect end-points are applied. Therefore, we deemed it reasonable to aggregate all response data into the so-called Relative Health Factor and jointly analysed such mixed data, to obtain better statistical power. In the second part of our analysis, robust Bayesian and classical methods of analysis were applied to this combined dataset. In this part of our analysis, we selected different subranges of radon concentrations. In view of substantial differences between the methodology used by the authors of case-control and ecological studies, the mathematical relationships (models) were applied mainly to the thirty-two case-control studies. The degree to which the two ecological studies, analysed separately, affect the overall results when combined with the thirty-two case-control studies, has also been evaluated. In all, as a result of our meta-analysis of the combined cohort, we conclude that the analysed data concerning radon concentrations below ~1000 Bq/m3 (~20 mSv/year of effective dose to the whole body) do not support the thesis that radon may be a cause of any statistically significant increase in lung cancer incidence.

Discontinuation, Efficacy, and Safety of Cholinesterase Inhibitors for Alzheimer’s Disease: a Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression of 43 Randomized Clinical Trials Enrolling 16 106 Patients

PubMed Central

Blanco-Silvente, Lídia; Saez, Marc; Barceló, Maria Antònia; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Vilalta-Franch, Joan; Capellà, Dolors

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: We investigated the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors on all-cause discontinuation, efficacy and safety, and the effects of study design-, intervention-, and patient-related covariates on the risk-benefit of cholinesterase inhibitors for Alzheimer’s disease. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials comparing cholinesterase inhibitors and placebo was performed. The effect of covariates on study outcomes was analysed by means of meta-regression using a Bayesian framework. Results: Forty-three randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials involving 16106 patients were included. All-cause discontinuation was higher with cholinesterase inhibitors (OR = 1.66), as was discontinuation due to adverse events (OR=1.75). Cholinesterase inhibitors improved cognitive function (standardized mean difference = 0.38), global symptomatology (standardized mean difference=0.28) and functional capacity (standardized mean difference=0.16) but not neuropsychiatric symptoms. Rivastigmine was associated with a poorer outcome on all-cause discontinuation (Diff OR = 1.66) and donepezil with a higher efficacy on global change (Diff standardized mean difference = 0.41). The proportion of patients with serious adverse events decreased with age (Diff OR = -0.09). Mortality was lower with cholinesterase inhibitors than with placebo (OR = 0.65). Conclusion: While cholinesterase inhibitors show a poor risk-benefit relationship as indicated by mild symptom improvement and a higher than placebo all-cause discontinuation, a reduction of mortality was suggested. Intervention- and patient-related factors modify the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors in patients with Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:28201726

Discontinuation, Efficacy, and Safety of Cholinesterase Inhibitors for Alzheimer's Disease: a Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression of 43 Randomized Clinical Trials Enrolling 16 106 Patients.

PubMed

Blanco-Silvente, Lídia; Castells, Xavier; Saez, Marc; Barceló, Maria Antònia; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Vilalta-Franch, Joan; Capellà, Dolors

2017-07-01

We investigated the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors on all-cause discontinuation, efficacy and safety, and the effects of study design-, intervention-, and patient-related covariates on the risk-benefit of cholinesterase inhibitors for Alzheimer's disease. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials comparing cholinesterase inhibitors and placebo was performed. The effect of covariates on study outcomes was analysed by means of meta-regression using a Bayesian framework. Forty-three randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials involving 16106 patients were included. All-cause discontinuation was higher with cholinesterase inhibitors (OR = 1.66), as was discontinuation due to adverse events (OR=1.75). Cholinesterase inhibitors improved cognitive function (standardized mean difference = 0.38), global symptomatology (standardized mean difference=0.28) and functional capacity (standardized mean difference=0.16) but not neuropsychiatric symptoms. Rivastigmine was associated with a poorer outcome on all-cause discontinuation (Diff OR = 1.66) and donepezil with a higher efficacy on global change (Diff standardized mean difference = 0.41). The proportion of patients with serious adverse events decreased with age (Diff OR = -0.09). Mortality was lower with cholinesterase inhibitors than with placebo (OR = 0.65). While cholinesterase inhibitors show a poor risk-benefit relationship as indicated by mild symptom improvement and a higher than placebo all-cause discontinuation, a reduction of mortality was suggested. Intervention- and patient-related factors modify the effect of cholinesterase inhibitors in patients with Alzheimer's disease. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of CINP.

Trans-ethnic meta-analysis of white blood cell phenotypes

PubMed Central

Keller, Margaux F.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Okada, Yukinori; van Rooij, Frank J.A.; Johnson, Andrew D.; Chen, Ming-Huei; Smith, Albert V.; Morris, Andrew P.; Tanaka, Toshiko; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B.; Lettre, Guillaume; Harris, Tamara; Garcia, Melissa; Bandinelli, Stefania; Qayyum, Rehan; Yanek, Lisa R.; Becker, Diane M.; Becker, Lewis C.; Kooperberg, Charles; Keating, Brendan; Reis, Jared; Tang, Hua; Boerwinkle, Eric; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Matsuda, Koichi; Kamatani, Naoyuki; Nakamura, Yusuke; Kubo, Michiaki; Liu, Simin; Dehghan, Abbas; Felix, Janine F.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Franco, Oscar H.; Longo, Dan L.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Evans, Michelle K.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Rotter, Jerome I.; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Takahashi, Atsushi; Wilson, James G.; Ganesh, Santhi K.; Nalls, Mike A.

2014-01-01

White blood cell (WBC) count is a common clinical measure used as a predictor of certain aspects of human health, including immunity and infection status. WBC count is also a complex trait that varies among individuals and ancestry groups. Differences in linkage disequilibrium structure and heterogeneity in allelic effects are expected to play a role in the associations observed between populations. Prior genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses have identified genomic loci associated with WBC and its subtypes, but much of the heritability of these phenotypes remains unexplained. Using GWAS summary statistics for over 50 000 individuals from three diverse populations (Japanese, African-American and European ancestry), a Bayesian model methodology was employed to account for heterogeneity between ancestry groups. This approach was used to perform a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of total WBC, neutrophil and monocyte counts. Ten previously known associations were replicated and six new loci were identified, including several regions harboring genes related to inflammation and immune cell function. Ninety-five percent credible interval regions were calculated to narrow the association signals and fine-map the putatively causal variants within loci. Finally, a conditional analysis was performed on the most significant SNPs identified by the trans-ethnic meta-analysis (MA), and nine secondary signals within loci previously associated with WBC or its subtypes were identified. This work illustrates the potential of trans-ethnic analysis and ascribes a critical role to multi-ethnic cohorts and consortia in exploring complex phenotypes with respect to variants that lie outside the European-biased GWAS pool. PMID:25096241

Sizing Up the Milky Way: A Bayesian Mixture Model Meta-analysis of Photometric Scale Length Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licquia, Timothy C.; Newman, Jeffrey A.

2016-11-01

The exponential scale length (L d ) of the Milky Way’s (MW’s) disk is a critical parameter for describing the global physical size of our Galaxy, important both for interpreting other Galactic measurements and helping us to understand how our Galaxy fits into extragalactic contexts. Unfortunately, current estimates span a wide range of values and are often statistically incompatible with one another. Here, we perform a Bayesian meta-analysis to determine an improved, aggregate estimate for L d , utilizing a mixture-model approach to account for the possibility that any one measurement has not properly accounted for all statistical or systematic errors. Within this machinery, we explore a variety of ways of modeling the nature of problematic measurements, and then employ a Bayesian model averaging technique to derive net posterior distributions that incorporate any model-selection uncertainty. Our meta-analysis combines 29 different (15 visible and 14 infrared) photometric measurements of L d available in the literature; these involve a broad assortment of observational data sets, MW models and assumptions, and methodologies, all tabulated herein. Analyzing the visible and infrared measurements separately yields estimates for L d of {2.71}-0.20+0.22 kpc and {2.51}-0.13+0.15 kpc, respectively, whereas considering them all combined yields 2.64 ± 0.13 kpc. The ratio between the visible and infrared scale lengths determined here is very similar to that measured in external spiral galaxies. We use these results to update the model of the Galactic disk from our previous work, constraining its stellar mass to be {4.8}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙, and the MW’s total stellar mass to be {5.7}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙.

Inhaled Cannabis for Chronic Neuropathic Pain: A Meta-analysis of Individual Patient Data.

PubMed

Andreae, Michael H; Carter, George M; Shaparin, Naum; Suslov, Kathryn; Ellis, Ronald J; Ware, Mark A; Abrams, Donald I; Prasad, Hannah; Wilsey, Barth; Indyk, Debbie; Johnson, Matthew; Sacks, Henry S

2015-12-01

Chronic neuropathic pain, the most frequent condition affecting the peripheral nervous system, remains underdiagnosed and difficult to treat. Inhaled cannabis may alleviate chronic neuropathic pain. Our objective was to synthesize the evidence on the use of inhaled cannabis for chronic neuropathic pain. We performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of individual patient data. We registered our protocol with PROSPERO CRD42011001182. We searched in Cochrane Central, PubMed, EMBASE, and AMED. We considered all randomized controlled trials investigating chronic painful neuropathy and comparing inhaled cannabis with placebo. We pooled treatment effects following a hierarchical random-effects Bayesian responder model for the population-averaged subject-specific effect. Our evidence synthesis of individual patient data from 178 participants with 405 observed responses in 5 randomized controlled trials following patients for days to weeks provides evidence that inhaled cannabis results in short-term reductions in chronic neuropathic pain for 1 in every 5 to 6 patients treated (number needed to treat = 5.6 with a Bayesian 95% credible interval ranging between 3.4 and 14). Our inferences were insensitive to model assumptions, priors, and parameter choices. We caution that the small number of studies and participants, the short follow-up, shortcomings in allocation concealment, and considerable attrition limit the conclusions that can be drawn from the review. The Bayes factor is 332, corresponding to a posterior probability of effect of 99.7%. This novel Bayesian meta-analysis of individual patient data from 5 randomized trials suggests that inhaled cannabis may provide short-term relief for 1 in 5 to 6 patients with neuropathic pain. Pragmatic trials are needed to evaluate the long-term benefits and risks of this treatment. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of the effect of natural frequencies on Bayesian reasoning.

PubMed

McDowell, Michelle; Jacobs, Perke

2017-12-01

The natural frequency facilitation effect describes the finding that people are better able to solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained through natural sampling, known as natural frequencies, than as conditional probabilities. The present meta-analysis reviews 20 years of research seeking to address when, why, and for whom natural frequency formats are most effective. We review contributions from research associated with the 2 dominant theoretical perspectives, the ecological rationality framework and nested-sets theory, and test potential moderators of the effect. A systematic review of relevant literature yielded 35 articles representing 226 performance estimates. These estimates were statistically integrated using a bivariate mixed-effects model that yields summary estimates of average performances across the 2 formats and estimates of the effects of different study characteristics on performance. These study characteristics range from moderators representing individual characteristics (e.g., numeracy, expertise), to methodological differences (e.g., use of incentives, scoring criteria) and features of problem representation (e.g., short menu format, visual aid). Short menu formats (less computationally complex representations showing joint-events) and visual aids demonstrated some of the strongest moderation effects, improving performance for both conditional probability and natural frequency formats. A number of methodological factors (e.g., exposure to both problem formats) were also found to affect performance rates, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach. We suggest how research on Bayesian reasoning can be strengthened by broadening the definition of successful Bayesian reasoning to incorporate choice and process and by applying different research methodologies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Formalizing the definition of meta-analysis in Molecular Ecology.

PubMed

ArchMiller, Althea A; Bauer, Eric F; Koch, Rebecca E; Wijayawardena, Bhagya K; Anil, Ammu; Kottwitz, Jack J; Munsterman, Amelia S; Wilson, Alan E

2015-08-01

Meta-analysis, the statistical synthesis of pertinent literature to develop evidence-based conclusions, is relatively new to the field of molecular ecology, with the first meta-analysis published in the journal Molecular Ecology in 2003 (Slate & Phua 2003). The goal of this article is to formalize the definition of meta-analysis for the authors, editors, reviewers and readers of Molecular Ecology by completing a review of the meta-analyses previously published in this journal. We also provide a brief overview of the many components required for meta-analysis with a more specific discussion of the issues related to the field of molecular ecology, including the use and statistical considerations of Wright's FST and its related analogues as effect sizes in meta-analysis. We performed a literature review to identify articles published as 'meta-analyses' in Molecular Ecology, which were then evaluated by at least two reviewers. We specifically targeted Molecular Ecology publications because as a flagship journal in this field, meta-analyses published in Molecular Ecology have the potential to set the standard for meta-analyses in other journals. We found that while many of these reviewed articles were strong meta-analyses, others failed to follow standard meta-analytical techniques. One of these unsatisfactory meta-analyses was in fact a secondary analysis. Other studies attempted meta-analyses but lacked the fundamental statistics that are considered necessary for an effective and powerful meta-analysis. By drawing attention to the inconsistency of studies labelled as meta-analyses, we emphasize the importance of understanding the components of traditional meta-analyses to fully embrace the strengths of quantitative data synthesis in the field of molecular ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Skin antiseptics in venous puncture site disinfection for preventing blood culture contamination: A Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Liu, Wenjie; Duan, Yuchen; Cui, Wenyao; Li, Li; Wang, Xia; Dai, Heling; You, Chao; Chen, Maojun

2016-07-01

To compare the efficacy of several antiseptics in decreasing the blood culture contamination rate. Network meta-analysis. Electronic searches of PubMed and Embase were conducted up to November 2015. Only randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials were eligible. We applied no language restriction. A comprehensive review of articles in the reference lists was also accomplished for possible relevant studies. Relevant studies evaluating efficacy of different antiseptics in venous puncture site for decreasing the blood culture contamination rate were included. The data were extracted from the included randomized controlled trials by two authors independently. The risk of bias was evaluated using Detsky scale by two authors independently. We used WinBUGS1.43 software and statistic model described by Chaimani to perform this network meta-analysis. Then graphs of statistical results of WinBUGS1.43 software were generated using 'networkplot', 'ifplot', 'netfunnel' and 'sucra' procedure by STATA13.0. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were assessed for dichotomous data. A probability of p less than 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Compared with ordinary meta-analyses, this network meta-analysis offered hierarchies for the efficacy of different antiseptics in decreasing the blood culture contamination rate. Seven randomized controlled trials involving 34,408 blood samples were eligible for the meta-analysis. No significant difference was found in blood culture contamination rate among different antiseptics. No significant difference was found between non-alcoholic antiseptics and alcoholic antiseptics, alcoholic chlorhexidine and povidone iodine, chlorhexidine and iodine compounds, povidone iodine and iodine tincture in this aspect, respectively. Different antiseptics may not affect the blood culture contamination rate. Different intervals between the skin disinfection and the venous puncture, the different settings (emergency room, medical wards, and intensive care units) and the performance of the phlebotomy may affect the blood culture contamination rate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aspirin Compared to Low Intensity Anticoagulation in Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Vazquez, Fernando J.; Gonzalez, Joaquín P.; Gándara, Esteban

2015-01-01

Background Despite its lack of efficacy, aspirin is commonly used for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Since prior studies have suggested a benefit of low-intensity anticoagulation over aspirin in the prevention of vascular events, the aim of this systematic review was to compare the outcomes of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation treated with low-intensity anticoagulation with Vitamin K antagonists or aspirin. Methods We conducted a systematic review searching Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, from 1946 to October 14th, 2015. Randomized controlled trials were included if they reported the outcomes of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation treated with a low-intensity anticoagulation compared to patients treated with aspirin. The primary outcome was a combination of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism. The random-effects model odds ratio was used as the outcome measure. Results Our initial search identified 6309relevant articles of which three satisfied our inclusion criteria and were included. Compared to low-intensity anticoagulation, aspirin alone did not reduce the incidence of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism OR 0.94 (95% CI 0.57–1.56), major bleeding OR 1.06 (95% CI 0.42–2.62) or vascular death OR 1.04 (95% CI 0.61–1.75). The use of aspirin was associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality OR 1.66 (95% CI 1.12–2.48). Conclusion In patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, aspirin provides no benefits over low-intensity anticoagulation. Furthermore, the use of aspirin appears to be associated with an increased risk in all-cause mortality. Our study provides more evidence against the use aspirin in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. PMID:26561858

Transcatheter closure, mini-invasive closure and open-heart surgical repair for treatment of perimembranous ventricular septal defects in children: a protocol for a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

You, Tao; Yi, Kang; Ding, Zhao-Hong; Hou, Xiao-Dong; Liu, Xing-Guang; Wang, Xin-Kuan; Ge, Long; Tian, Jin-Hui

2017-06-21

Both transcatheter device closure and surgical repair are effective treatments with excellent midterm outcomes for perimembranous ventricular septal defects (pmVSDs) in children. The mini-invasive periventricular device occlusion technique has become prevalent in research and application, but evidence is limited for the assessment of transcatheter closure, mini-invasive closure and open-heart surgical repair. This study comprehensively compares the efficacy, safety and costs of transcatheter closure, mini-invasive closure and open-heart surgical repair for treatment of pmVSDs in children using Bayesian network meta-analysis. A systematic search will be performed using Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, PubMed, EMBASE.com and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to include random controlled trials, prospective or retrospective cohort studies comparing the efficacy, safety and costs of transcatheter closure, mini-invasive closure and open-heart surgical repair. The risk of bias for the included prospective or retrospective cohort studies will be evaluated according to the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I). For random controlled trials, we will use risk of bias tool from Cochrane Handbook version 5.1.0. A Bayesian network meta-analysis will be conducted using R-3.3.2 software. Ethical approval and patient consent are not required since this study is a network meta-analysis based on published trials. The results of this network meta-analysis will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. CRD42016053352. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland.

PubMed

Nuñez-Garcia, Javier; Downs, Sara H; Parry, Jessica E; Abernethy, Darrell A; Broughan, Jennifer M; Cameron, Angus R; Cook, Alasdair J; de la Rua-Domenech, Ricardo; Goodchild, Anthony V; Gunn, Jane; More, Simon J; Rhodes, Shelley; Rolfe, Simon; Sharp, Michael; Upton, Paul A; Vordermeier, H Martin; Watson, Eamon; Welsh, Michael; Whelan, Adam O; Woolliams, John A; Clifton-Hadley, Richard S; Greiner, Matthias

2018-05-01

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of major bleeding events on aspirin versus vitamin K antagonists in randomized trials.

PubMed

Ambrosi, P; Daumas, A; Villani, P; Giorgi, R

2017-03-01

The relative bleeding risk of aspirin versus vitamin K antagonists (VKA) is unclear. Most of previous meta-analyses included trials with target INR for VKA therapy far beyond usually recommended range (2-3). The aim of this study was to compare the bleeding risk of aspirin and VKA, as indicated by the aggregate body of clinical evidence including data from the recently published WARCEF trial. In this meta-analysis we included randomized controlled trials that compared aspirin to VKA (1.4

Characteristics and Methodological Quality of Meta-Analyses on Hypertension Treatments-A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Wu, Xin Yin; Du, Xin Jian; Ho, Robin S T; Lee, Clarence C Y; Yip, Benjamin H K; Wong, Martin C S; Wong, Samuel Y S; Chung, Vincent C H

2017-02-01

Methodological quality of meta-analyses on hypertension treatments can affect treatment decision-making. The authors conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the methodological quality of meta-analyses on hypertension treatments. One hundred and fifty-eight meta-analyses were identified. Overall, methodological quality was unsatisfactory in the following aspects: comprehensive reporting of financial support (1.9%), provision of included and excluded lists of studies (22.8%), inclusion of grey literature (27.2%), and inclusion of protocols (32.9%). The 126 non-Cochrane meta-analyses had poor performance on almost all the methodological items. Non-Cochrane meta-analyses focused on nonpharmacologic treatments were more likely to consider scientific quality of included studies when making conclusions. The 32 Cochrane meta-analyses generally had good methodological quality except for comprehensive reporting of the sources of support. These results highlight the need for cautious interpretation of these meta-analyses, especially among physicians and policy makers when guidelines are formulated. Future meta-analyses should pay attention to improving these methodological aspects. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Bayesian network meta-analysis of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiotherapy for brain metastasis.

PubMed

Yuan, Xi; Liu, Wen-Jie; Li, Bing; Shen, Ze-Tian; Shen, Jun-Shu; Zhu, Xi-Xu

2017-08-01

This study was conducted to compare the effects of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiotherapy (SRS) in treatment of brain metastasis.A systematical retrieval in PubMed and Embase databases was performed for relative literatures on the effects of WBRT and SRS in treatment of brain metastasis. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed by using the ADDIS software. The effect sizes included odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A random effects model was used for the pooled analysis for all the outcome measures, including 1-year distant control rate, 1-year local control rate, 1-year survival rate, and complication. The consistency was tested by using node-splitting analysis and inconsistency standard deviation. The convergence was estimated according to the Brooks-Gelman-Rubin method.A total of 12 literatures were included in this meta-analysis. WBRT + SRS showed higher 1-year distant control rate than SRS. WBRT + SRS was better for the 1-year local control rate than WBRT. SRS and WBRT + SRS had higher 1-year survival rate than the WBRT. In addition, there was no difference in complication among the three therapies.Comprehensively, WBRT + SRS might be the choice of treatment for brain metastasis.

Efficacy and safety of the second-generation cryoballoons versus radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jiang, Jingbo; Li, Jinyi; Zhong, Guoqiang; Jiang, Junjun

2017-01-01

Currently, radiofrequency (RF) and cryoballoon are the most commonly used ablation technologies for atrial fibrillation (AF). We performed a meta-analysis to assess the efficacy and safety of the second-generation cryoballoons (CB-2) compared with RF for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) ablation. The PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were searched and qualified studies were identified. The primary clinical outcome was the recurrence rate of atrial tachyarrhythmia (AT), and the secondary clinical outcomes were procedure time, fluoroscopy time, and the complications that followed. Nine observational studies (2336 patients) with a mean follow-up period ranging from 8.8 to 16.8 months were included. The CB-2 group was associated with a significantly lower recurrence rate of ATs (20.8 versus 29.8 %, p = 0.01). In subgroup analysis, compared with non-contact force sensing (NCF) catheter, using CB-2 showed significantly reduced incidence of ATs (22.0 versus 38.5 %, p < 0.00001). However, the difference became negligible in contrast with contact force sensing (CF) catheter. Moreover, the CB-2 group had a tendency to decrease procedure time (weighted mean difference -39.72 min, p = 0.0003), whereas fluoroscopy time was similar between the two groups. The total complication rate showed no statistical difference (8.8 versus 4.4 %, p = 0.08). Almost all the cases of phrenic nerve palsy occurred in the CB-2 group, whereas pericardial tamponade was seldom manifested in the CB-2 group. CB-2 tended to be more effective in comparison to NCF catheter and at least non-inferior to CF catheter, with shorter procedure time and similar safety endpoint.

Antioxidant supplementations for prevention of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: an updated comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Ali-Hassan-Sayegh, Sadegh; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Rezaeisadrabadi, Mohammad; Dehghan, Hamid Reza; Sedaghat-Hamedani, Farbod; Kayvanpour, Elham; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Liakopoulos, Oliver J

2014-05-01

This systematic review with meta-analysis sought to determine the impact of antioxidants (N-acetylcysteine [NAC], polyunsaturated fatty acids [PUFAs] and vitamins) on incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) and duration of length of hospital stay. Medline, Embase, Elsevier, Sciences online database and Google Scholar literature search was made for studies in randomized controlled trials. The effect sizes measured were odds ratio (OR) for categorical variable and standard mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for calculating differences between mean values of duration of hospitalization in intervention and control groups. A value of P < 0.1 for Q-test or I(2) > 50% indicated significant heterogeneity between the studies. Literature search of all major databases retrieved 355 studies. After screening, a total of 23 trials were identified that reported outcomes of 4278 patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Pooled effects estimates on POAF showed a significant reduction after NAC (OR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.40-0.77, P < 0.001), PUFA (OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.71-0.99, P = 0.03) and vitamin C treatment (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.27-0.91, P = 0.02). Hospital length of stay was not reduced after NAC therapy (SMD: 0.082, 95% CI -0.09 to 0.25, P = 0.3), but could be decreased with PUFA (SMD: -0.185, 95% CI: -0.35 to -0.018, P = 0.03) and vitamin C (SMD: -0.325, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.14, P < 0.01). In conclusion, perioperative antioxidant supplementations with NAC, PUFA and vitamin C prevent atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery. Moreover, PUFA and vitamin C are capable to reduce hospital stay, whereas NAC lacks this capacity.

Bayesian methods including nonrandomized study data increased the efficiency of postlaunch RCTs.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klugkist, Irene; Klungel, Olaf H; Nielen, Mirjam; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2015-04-01

Findings from nonrandomized studies on safety or efficacy of treatment in patient subgroups may trigger postlaunch randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In the analysis of such RCTs, results from nonrandomized studies are typically ignored. This study explores the trade-off between bias and power of Bayesian RCT analysis incorporating information from nonrandomized studies. A simulation study was conducted to compare frequentist with Bayesian analyses using noninformative and informative priors in their ability to detect interaction effects. In simulated subgroups, the effect of a hypothetical treatment differed between subgroups (odds ratio 1.00 vs. 2.33). Simulations varied in sample size, proportions of the subgroups, and specification of the priors. As expected, the results for the informative Bayesian analyses were more biased than those from the noninformative Bayesian analysis or frequentist analysis. However, because of a reduction in posterior variance, informative Bayesian analyses were generally more powerful to detect an effect. In scenarios where the informative priors were in the opposite direction of the RCT data, type 1 error rates could be 100% and power 0%. Bayesian methods incorporating data from nonrandomized studies can meaningfully increase power of interaction tests in postlaunch RCTs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Network meta-analyses performed by contracting companies and commissioned by industry.

PubMed

Schuit, Ewoud; Ioannidis, John Pa

2016-11-25

Industry commissions contracting companies to perform network meta-analysis for health technology assessment (HTA) and reimbursement submissions. Our objective was to estimate the number of network meta-analyses performed by consulting companies contracted by industry, to assess whether they were published, and to explore reasons for non-publication. We searched MEDLINE for network meta-analyses of randomized trials. Papers were included if they had authors affiliated with any contracting company. All identified contracting companies as well as additional ones from the list of the exhibitors at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, an annual meeting that representatives from many contracting companies attend and exhibit at, were surveyed regarding conduct and publication of network meta-analyses. In 162 of 822 (20%) network meta-analysis papers, authors were affiliated to 66 contracting companies. Another 36 contracting companies were identified by the exhibitors list. Three companies had no contact information and six merged with others, therefore 93 companies were contacted. Thirty seven out of ninety three (40%) companies responded, and 19 indicated that they had performed a total of 476 network meta-analyses, but only 102 (21%) papers were published. Thirteen companies that disclosed to have conducted 174 network meta-analyses (45 published) provided reasons for non-publication. Of the 129 still unpublished meta-analyses, for 40 there were plans for future publication, for 37 the sponsor did not allow publication, for 16 the contracting companies did not plan to publish the meta-analysis, for another 23 plans were unclear, and the remaining 13 were used as HTA submission. The protocol of the network meta-analysis was publically available from 11/162 (6.8%) network meta-analyses published by authors affiliated with contracting companies. There is a prolific sector of professional contracting companies that perform network meta-analyses. Industry commissions many network meta-analyses, but most are not registered before or published after analyses in the scientific literature. Mechanisms to improve publication rates of network meta-analysis commissioned by industry are warranted.

The Influence of Judgment Calls on Meta-Analytic Findings.

PubMed

Tarrahi, Farid; Eisend, Martin

2016-01-01

Previous research has suggested that judgment calls (i.e., methodological choices made in the process of conducting a meta-analysis) have a strong influence on meta-analytic findings and question their robustness. However, prior research applies case study comparison or reanalysis of a few meta-analyses with a focus on a few selected judgment calls. These studies neglect the fact that different judgment calls are related to each other and simultaneously influence the outcomes of a meta-analysis, and that meta-analytic findings can vary due to non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses (e.g., variations of effects over time). The current study analyzes the influence of 13 judgment calls in 176 meta-analyses in marketing research by applying a multivariate, multilevel meta-meta-analysis. The analysis considers simultaneous influences from different judgment calls on meta-analytic effect sizes and controls for alternative explanations based on non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses. The findings suggest that judgment calls have only a minor influence on meta-analytic findings, whereas non-judgment call differences between meta-analyses are more likely to explain differences in meta-analytic findings. The findings support the robustness of meta-analytic results and conclusions.

A Bayesian prediction model between a biomarker and the clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhiwei; Song, Yang; Shou, Qiong; Xia, Jielai; Wang, William

2014-12-20

Early biomarkers are helpful for predicting clinical endpoints and for evaluating efficacy in clinical trials even if the biomarker cannot replace clinical outcome as a surrogate. The building and evaluation of an association model between biomarkers and clinical outcomes are two equally important concerns regarding the prediction of clinical outcome. This paper is to address both issues in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian meta-analytic approach is proposed to build a prediction model between the biomarker and clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables. Compared with other Bayesian methods, the proposed model only requires trial-level summary data of historical trials in model building. By using extensive simulations, we evaluate the link function and the application condition of the proposed Bayesian model under scenario (i) equal positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) and (ii) higher NPV and lower PPV. In the simulations, the patient-level data is generated to evaluate the meta-analytic model. PPV and NPV are employed to describe the patient-level relationship between the biomarker and the clinical outcome. The minimum number of historical trials to be included in building the model is also considered. It is seen from the simulations that the logit link function performs better than the odds and cloglog functions under both scenarios. PPV/NPV ≥0.5 for equal PPV and NPV, and PPV + NPV ≥1 for higher NPV and lower PPV are proposed in order to predict clinical outcome accurately and precisely when the proposed model is considered. Twenty historical trials are required to be included in model building when PPV and NPV are equal. For unequal PPV and NPV, the minimum number of historical trials for model building is proposed to be five. A hypothetical example shows an application of the proposed model in global drug development. The proposed Bayesian model is able to predict well the clinical endpoint from the observed biomarker data for dichotomous variables as long as the conditions are satisfied. It could be applied in drug development. But the practical problems in applications have to be studied in further research.

Twenty years of meta-analyses in orthopaedic surgery: has quality kept up with quantity?

PubMed

Dijkman, Bernadette G; Abouali, Jihad A K; Kooistra, Bauke W; Conter, Henry J; Poolman, Rudolf W; Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Tornetta, Paul; Bhandari, Mohit

2010-01-01

As the number of studies in the literature is increasing, orthopaedic surgeons highly depend on meta-analyses as their primary source of scientific evidence. The objectives of this review were to assess the scientific quality and number of published meta-analyses on orthopaedics-related topics over time. We conducted, in duplicate and independently, a systematic review of published meta-analyses in orthopaedics in the years 2005 and 2008 and compared them with a previous systematic review of meta-analyses from 1969 to 1999. A search of electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews) was performed to identify meta-analyses published in 2005 and 2008. We searched bibliographies and contacted content experts to identify additional relevant studies. Two investigators independently assessed the quality of the studies, using the Oxman and Guyatt index, and abstracted relevant data. We included forty-five and forty-four meta-analyses from 2005 and 2008, respectively. While the number of meta-analyses increased fivefold from 1999 to 2008, the mean quality score did not change significantly over time (p = 0.067). In the later years, a significantly lower proportion of meta-analyses had methodological flaws (56% in 2005 and 68% in 2008) compared with meta-analyses published prior to 2000 (88%) (p = 0.006). In 2005 and 2008, respectively, 18% and 30% of the meta-analyses had major to extensive flaws in their methodology. Studies from 2008 with positive conclusions used and described appropriate criteria for the validity assessment less often than did those with negative results. The use of random-effects and fixed-effects models as pooling methods became more popular toward 2008. Although the methodological quality of orthopaedic meta-analyses has increased in the past twenty years, a substantial proportion continues to show major to extensive flaws. As the number of published meta-analyses is increasing, a routine checklist for scientific quality should be used in the peer-review process to ensure methodological standards for publication.

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in the Critically Ill*

PubMed Central

Moss, Travis J.; Calland, James Forrest; Enfield, Kyle B.; Gomez-Manjarres, Diana C.; Ruminski, Caroline; DiMarco, John P.; Lake, Douglas E.

2017-01-01

Objective: To determine the association of new-onset atrial fibrillation with outcomes, including ICU length of stay and survival. Design: Retrospective cohort of ICU admissions. We found atrial fibrillation using automated detection (≥ 90 s in 30 min) and classed as new-onset if there was no prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. We identified determinants of new-onset atrial fibrillation and, using propensity matching, characterized its impact on outcomes. Setting: Tertiary care academic center. Patients: A total of 8,356 consecutive adult admissions to either the medical or surgical/trauma/burn ICU with available continuous electrocardiogram data. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: From 74 patient-years of every 15-minute observations, we detected atrial fibrillation in 1,610 admissions (19%), with median burden less than 2%. Most atrial fibrillation was paroxysmal; less than 2% of admissions were always in atrial fibrillation. New-onset atrial fibrillation was subclinical or went undocumented in 626, or 8% of all ICU admissions. Advanced age, acute respiratory failure, and sepsis were the strongest predictors of new-onset atrial fibrillation. In propensity-adjusted regression analyses, clinical new-onset atrial fibrillation was associated with increased hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01–2.63) and longer length of stay (2.25 d; CI, 0.58–3.92). New-onset atrial fibrillation was not associated with survival after hospital discharge (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.76–1.28 and hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.67–1.83, respectively, for subclinical and clinical new-onset atrial fibrillation). Conclusions: Automated analysis of continuous electrocardiogram heart rate dynamics detects new-onset atrial fibrillation in many ICU patients. Though often transient and frequently unrecognized, new-onset atrial fibrillation is associated with poor hospital outcomes. PMID:28296811

Echocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation: A literature review.

PubMed

Liżewska-Springer, Aleksandra; Dąbrowska-Kugacka, Alicja; Lewicka, Ewa; Drelich, Łukasz; Królak, Tomasz; Raczak, Grzegorz

2018-06-20

Catheter ablation (CA) is a well-known treatment option for patients with symptomatic drug-resistant atrial fibrillation (AF). Multiple factors have been identified to determine AF recurrence after CA, however their predictive value is rather small. Identification of novel predictors of CA outcome is therefore of primary importance to reduce health costs and improve long-term results of this intervention. The recurrence of AF following CA is related to the severity of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, extend of atrial dilatation and fibrosis. The aim of this paper was to present and discuss the latest studies on utility of echocardiographic parameters in terms of CA effectiveness in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. PubMed, Google Scholar, EBSCO databases were searched for studies reporting echocardiographic preprocedural predictors of AF recurrence after CA. LV systolic and diastolic function, as well as atrial size, strain and dyssynchrony were taken into consideration. Twenty one full-text articles were analyzed, including three meta-analyses. Several echocardiographic parameters have been reported to determine a risk of AF recurrence after CA. There are conventional methods that measure left atrial (LA) size and volume, LV ejection fraction, parameters assessing LV diastolic dysfunction, and methods using more innovative technologies based on speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) to determine LA synchrony and strain. Each of these parameters has its own predictive value. Regarding CA effectiveness, every patient has to be evaluated individually to estimate the risk of AF recurrence, optimally using a combination of several echocardiographic parameters.

Meta-analyses with industry involvement are massively published and report no caveats for antidepressants.

PubMed

Ebrahim, Shanil; Bance, Sheena; Athale, Abha; Malachowski, Cindy; Ioannidis, John P A

2016-02-01

To identify the impact of industry involvement in the publication and interpretation of meta-analyses of antidepressant trials in depression. Using MEDLINE, we identified all meta-analyses evaluating antidepressants for depression published in January 2007-March 2014. We extracted data pertaining to author affiliations, conflicts of interest, and whether the conclusion of the abstract included negative statements on whether the antidepressant(s) were effective or safe. We identified 185 eligible meta-analyses. Fifty-four meta-analyses (29%) had authors who were employees of the assessed drug manufacturer, and 147 (79%) had some industry link (sponsorship or authors who were industry employees and/or had conflicts of interest). Only 58 meta-analyses (31%) had negative statements in the concluding statement of the abstract. Meta-analyses including an author who were employees of the manufacturer of the assessed drug were 22-fold less likely to have negative statements about the drug than other meta-analyses [1/54 (2%) vs. 57/131 (44%); P < 0.001]. There is a massive production of meta-analyses of antidepressants for depression authored by or linked to the industry, and they almost never report any caveats about antidepressants in their abstracts. Our findings add a note of caution for meta-analyses with ties to the manufacturers of the assessed products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metformin for the prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in women with gestational diabetes and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kalafat, Erkan; Sukur, Yavuz Emre; Abdi, Abdulkadir; Thilaganathan, Basky; Khalil, Asma

2018-05-10

Metformin has been reported to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. It is also known to influence soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) levels, which correlate significantly with the gestation of onset and severity of preeclampsia. The main aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine whether metformin use is associated with the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). MEDLINE (1947 - September 2017), Scopus (1970 - September 2017) and the Cochrane Library (since inception - September 2017) were searched for relevant citations in English language. Randomized controlled trials on metformin use, reporting the incidence of preeclampsia or pregnancy induced hypertension were included. Studies on populations with a high probability of metformin use prior to randomization (type II diabetes or polycystic ovary syndrome) were excluded. Random-effects models with Mantel-Haenszel were used for subgroup analyses. Moreover, a Bayesian random-effects meta-regression was used to synthesize the evidence. In total, 3337 citations matched the search criteria. After evaluating the abstracts and full text review, 15 studies were included in the review. Metformin use was associated with a reduced risk of pregnancy induced hypertension when compared to insulin (RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.37-0.85, I^ 2 =0, 1260 women) and a non-significantly reduced risk of preeclampsia (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.60-1.14, I^ 2 =0%, 1724 women). When compared to placebo, metformin use was associated with a non-significant reduction of preeclampsia (RR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.09-6.28, I^ 2 =86%, 840 women). Metformin use was also associated with a non-significant reduction of any HDP (RR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.41-1.25, I^ 2 =0, 556 women) when compared to glyburide. When studies were combined with Bayesian random-effects meta-regression using treatment type as a covariate, the posterior probabilities of metformin having a beneficial effect for the prevention of preeclampsia, pregnancy induced hypertension and any HDP were 92.7%, 92.8% and 99.2%, respectively when compared to any other treatment or placebo. There is a high probability that metformin use is associated with a reduced HDP incidence when compared to other treatments and placebo. The small number of studies included in the analysis, the low quality of evidence and the clinical heterogeneity preclude the generalization of these results to broader populations. Given the clinical importance of this topic and the magnitude of effect observed in this meta-analysis, further prospective trials are urgently needed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Trends in published meta-analyses in cancer research, 2008-2013.

PubMed

Qadir, Ximena V; Clyne, Mindy; Lam, Tram Kim; Khoury, Muin J; Schully, Sheri D

2017-01-01

In order to capture trends in the contribution of epidemiology to cancer research, we describe an online meta-analysis database resource for cancer clinical and population research and illustrate trends and descriptive detail of cancer meta-analyses from 2008 through 2013. A total of 4,686 cancer meta-analyses met our inclusion criteria. During this 6-year period, a fivefold increase was observed in the yearly number of meta-analyses. Fifty-six percent of meta-analyses concerned observational studies, mostly of cancer risk, more than half of which were genetic studies. The major cancer sites were breast, colorectal, and digestive. This online database for Cancer Genomics and Epidemiology Navigator will be continuously updated to allow investigators to quickly navigate the meta-analyses emerging from cancer epidemiology studies and cancer clinical trials.

Prediction of New-Onset and Recurrent Atrial Fibrillation by Complete Blood Count Tests: A Comprehensive Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Weymann, Alexander; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Sabashnikov, Anton; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Liu, Tong; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; de Oliveira Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros; Baker, William L.; Yavuz, Senol; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Jang, Jae-Sik; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Meng, Lei; Testa, Luca; D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Benedetto, Umberto; Tse, Gary; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Deshmukh, Abhishek J.; Linde, Cecilia; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Stone, Gregg W.; Calkins, Hugh

2017-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most critical and frequent arrhythmias precipitating morbidities and mortalities. The complete blood count (CBC) test is an important blood test in clinical practice and is routinely used in the workup of cardiovascular diseases. This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of hematological parameters in the CBC test with new-onset and recurrent AF. Material/Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating hematologic parameters in patients with new-onset AF and recurrent AF. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. Results The literature search of all major databases retrieved 2150 studies. After screening, 70 studies were analyzed in the meta-analysis on new-onset AF and 23 studies on recurrent AF. Pooled analysis on new-onset AF showed platelet count (PC) (weighted mean difference (WMD)=WMD of −26.39×109/L and p<0.001), mean platelet volume (MPV) (WMD=0.42 FL and p<0.001), white blood cell (WBC) (WMD=−0.005×109/L and p=0.83), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (WMD=0.89 and p<0.001), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (WMD=0.61% and p<0.001) as associated factors. Pooled analysis on recurrent AF revealed PC (WMD=−2.71×109/L and p=0.59), WBC (WMD=0.20×109/L (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.32; p=0.002), NLR (WMD=0.37 and p<0.001), and RDW (WMD=0.28% and p<0.001). Conclusions Hematological parameters have significant ability to predict occurrence and recurrence of AF. Therefore, emphasizing the potential predictive role of hematological parameters for new-onset and recurrent AF, we recommend adding the CBC test to the diagnostic modalities of AF in clinical practice. PMID:28496093

Prediction of New-Onset and Recurrent Atrial Fibrillation by Complete Blood Count Tests: A Comprehensive Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Weymann, Alexander; Ali-Hasan-Al-Saegh, Sadeq; Sabashnikov, Anton; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Liu, Tong; Lotfaliani, Mohammadreza; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Baker, William L L; Yavuz, Senol; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Jang, Jae-Sik; Dehghan, Hamidreza; Meng, Lei; Testa, Luca; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Benedetto, Umberto; Tse, Gary; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Dohmen, Pascal M; Deshmukh, Abhishek J; Linde, Cecilia; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Stone, Gregg W; Calkins, Hugh; Surgery And Cardiology-Group Imcsc-Group, Integrated Meta-Analysis Of Cardiac

2017-05-12

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most critical and frequent arrhythmias precipitating morbidities and mortalities. The complete blood count (CBC) test is an important blood test in clinical practice and is routinely used in the workup of cardiovascular diseases. This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to determine the strength of evidence for evaluating the association of hematological parameters in the CBC test with new-onset and recurrent AF. MATERIAL AND METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating hematologic parameters in patients with new-onset AF and recurrent AF. A comprehensive subgroup analysis was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS The literature search of all major databases retrieved 2150 studies. After screening, 70 studies were analyzed in the meta-analysis on new-onset AF and 23 studies on recurrent AF. Pooled analysis on new-onset AF showed platelet count (PC) (weighted mean difference (WMD)=WMD of -26.39×10^9/L and p<0.001), mean platelet volume (MPV) (WMD=0.42 FL and p<0.001), white blood cell (WBC) (WMD=-0.005×10^9/L and p=0.83), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (WMD=0.89 and p<0.001), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (WMD=0.61% and p<0.001) as associated factors. Pooled analysis on recurrent AF revealed PC (WMD=-2.71×109/L and p=0.59), WBC (WMD=0.20×10^9/L (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.32; p=0.002), NLR (WMD=0.37 and p<0.001), and RDW (WMD=0.28% and p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Hematological parameters have significant ability to predict occurrence and recurrence of AF. Therefore, emphasizing the potential predictive role of hematological parameters for new-onset and recurrent AF, we recommend adding the CBC test to the diagnostic modalities of AF in clinical practice.

Financial ties and concordance between results and conclusions in meta-analyses: retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Yank, Veronica; Rennie, Drummond; Bero, Lisa A

2007-12-08

To determine whether financial ties to one drug company are associated with favourable results or conclusions in meta-analyses on antihypertensive drugs. Retrospective cohort study. Meta-analyses published up to December 2004 that were not duplicates and evaluated the effects of antihypertensive drugs compared with any comparator on clinical end points in adults. Financial ties were categorised as one drug company compared with all others. The main outcomes were the results and conclusions of meta-analyses, with both outcomes separately categorised as being favourable or not favourable towards the study drug. We also collected data on characteristics of meta-analyses that the literature suggested might be associated with favourable results or conclusions. 124 meta-analyses were included in the study, 49 (40%) of which had financial ties to one drug company. On univariate logistic regression analyses, meta-analyses of better methodological quality were more likely to have favourable results (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.27). Although financial ties to one drug company were not associated with favourable results, such ties constituted the only characteristic significantly associated with favourable conclusions (4.09, 1.30 to 12.83). When controlling for other characteristics of meta-analyses in multiple logistic regression analyses, meta-analyses that had financial ties to one drug company remained more likely to report favourable conclusions (5.11, 1.54 to 16.92). Meta-analyses on antihypertensive drugs and with financial ties to one drug company are not associated with favourable results but are associated with favourable conclusions.

Bayesian inference on risk differences: an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Luo, Sheng; Chu, Haitao; Wei, Peng

2013-05-01

Multivariate meta-analysis is useful in combining evidence from independent studies which involve several comparisons among groups based on a single outcome. For binary outcomes, the commonly used statistical models for multivariate meta-analysis are multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models which assume risks, after some transformation, follow a multivariate normal distribution with possible correlations. In this article, we consider an alternative model for multivariate meta-analysis where the risks are modeled by the multivariate beta distribution proposed by Sarmanov (1966). This model have several attractive features compared to the conventional multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models, including simplicity of likelihood function, no need to specify a link function, and has a closed-form expression of distribution functions for study-specific risk differences. We investigate the finite sample performance of this model by simulation studies and illustrate its use with an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events of tricyclic antidepressants treatment in clinical trials.

Adalimumab versus infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis in adult patients naïve to anti-TNF therapy: an indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thorlund, Kristian; Druyts, Eric; Mills, Edward J; Fedorak, Richard N; Marshall, John K

2014-07-01

To compare the efficacy of adalimumab and infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis using indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis. A systematic review and Bayesian indirect treatment comparison meta-analyses were performed for seven patient-important clinical outcomes at 8 weeks and 52 weeks. Odds ratio (OR) estimates and associated 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were produced. Five eligible RCTs informed clinical remission, response, mucosal healing, quality of life, colectomy, serious adverse events, and discontinuation due to adverse events at 8 weeks and 52 weeks. At 8 weeks of induction therapy, clinical remission (OR=0.42, 95% CrI 0.17-0.97), clinical response (OR=0.45, 95% CrI 0.23-0.89) and mucosal healing (OR=0.46, 95% CrI 0.25-0.86) statistically favored infliximab. However, after 52 weeks of maintenance therapy OR estimates showed no significant difference between infliximab and adalimumab. For serious adverse events and discontinuations due to adverse events, adalimumab and infliximab were similar to placebo. Further, the indirect treatment comparison of adalimumab and infliximab yielded odds ratios close to 1.00 with wide credible intervals. The findings of this indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis suggest that both infliximab and adalimumab are superior to placebo in the treatment of moderate to moderately severe ulcerative colitis. While infliximab is statistically more effective than adalimumab in the induction of remission, response and mucosal healing at 8 weeks, infliximab and adalimumab are comparable in efficacy at 52 weeks of maintenance treatment. Copyright © 2014 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-regression analysis of the effect of trans fatty acids on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Allen, Bruce C; Vincent, Melissa J; Liska, DeAnn; Haber, Lynne T

2016-12-01

We conducted a meta-regression of controlled clinical trial data to investigate quantitatively the relationship between dietary intake of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) and increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Previous regression analyses included insufficient data to determine the nature of the dose response in the low-dose region and have nonetheless assumed a linear relationship between iTFA intake and LDL-C levels. This work contributes to the previous work by 1) including additional studies examining low-dose intake (identified using an evidence mapping procedure); 2) investigating a range of curve shapes, including both linear and nonlinear models; and 3) using Bayesian meta-regression to combine results across trials. We found that, contrary to previous assumptions, the linear model does not acceptably fit the data, while the nonlinear, S-shaped Hill model fits the data well. Based on a conservative estimate of the degree of intra-individual variability in LDL-C (0.1 mmoL/L), as an estimate of a change in LDL-C that is not adverse, a change in iTFA intake of 2.2% of energy intake (%en) (corresponding to a total iTFA intake of 2.2-2.9%en) does not cause adverse effects on LDL-C. The iTFA intake associated with this change in LDL-C is substantially higher than the average iTFA intake (0.5%en). Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Reporting of meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials with a focus on drug safety: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Hammad, Tarek A; Neyarapally, George A; Pinheiro, Simone P; Iyasu, Solomon; Rochester, George; Dal Pan, Gerald

2013-01-01

Due to the sparse nature of serious drug-related adverse events (AEs), meta-analyses combining data from several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate drug safety issues are increasingly being conducted and published, influencing clinical and regulatory decision making. Evaluation of meta-analyses involves the assessment of both the individual constituent trials and the approaches used to combine them. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) reporting framework is designed to enhance the reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. However, PRISMA may not cover all critical elements useful in the evaluation of meta-analyses with a focus on drug safety particularly in the regulatory-public health setting. This work was conducted to (1) evaluate the adherence of a sample of published drug safety-focused meta-analyses to the PRISMA reporting framework, (2) identify gaps in this framework based on key aspects pertinent to drug safety, and (3) stimulate the development and validation of a more comprehensive reporting tool that incorporates elements unique to drug safety evaluation. We selected a sample of meta-analyses of RCTs based on review of abstracts from high-impact journals as well as top medical specialty journals between 2009 and 2011. We developed a preliminary reporting framework based on PRISMA with specific additional reporting elements critical for the evaluation of drug safety meta-analyses of RCTs. The reporting of pertinent elements in each meta-analysis was reviewed independently by two authors; discrepancies in the independent evaluations were resolved through discussions between the two authors. A total of 27 meta-analyses, 12 from highest impact journals, 13 from specialty medical journals, and 2 from Cochrane reviews, were identified and evaluated. The great majority (>85%) of PRISMA elements were addressed in more than half of the meta-analyses reviewed. However, the majority of meta-analyses (>60%) did not address most (>80%) of the additional reporting elements critical for the evaluation of drug safety. Some of these elements were not addressed in any of the reviewed meta-analyses. This review included a sample of meta-analyses, with a focus on drug safety, recently published in high-impact journals; therefore, we may have underestimated the extent of the reporting problem across all meta-analyses of drug safety. Furthermore, temporal trends in reporting could not be evaluated in this review because of the short time interval selected. While the majority of PRISMA elements were addressed by most studies reviewed, the majority of studies did not address most of the additional safety-related elements. These findings highlight the need for the development and validation of a drug safety reporting framework and the importance of the current initiative by the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) to create a guidance document for drug safety information synthesis/meta-analysis, which may improve reporting, conduct, and evaluation of meta-analyses of drug safety and inform clinical and regulatory decision making.

Exploring changes over time and characteristics associated with data retrieval across individual participant data meta-analyses: systematic review

PubMed Central

Marson, Anthony G; Davie, Becky; Reynolds, Sally; Williams, Lisa; Smith, Catrin Tudur

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate whether the success rate of retrieving individual participant data (IPD) for use in IPD meta-analyses has increased over time, and to explore the characteristics associated with IPD retrieval. Design Systematic review of published IPD meta-analyses, supplemented by a reflection of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group’s 20 years’ experience of requesting IPD. Data sources Medline, CENTRAL, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and PsycINFO. Eligibility criteria for study selection IPD meta-analyses of studies of all designs and all clinical areas published in English. Results 760 IPD meta-analyses which identified studies by systematic methods that had been published between 1987 and 2015 were included. Only 188 (25%) of these IPD meta-analyses retrieved 100% of the eligible IPD for analysis, with 324 (43%) of these IPD meta-analyses retrieving 80% or more of relevant IPD. There is insufficient evidence to suggest that IPD retrieval rates have improved over time. IPD meta-analyses that included only randomised trials, had an authorship policy, included fewer eligible participants, and were conducted outside of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were associated with a high or complete IPD retrieval rate. There was no association between the source of funding of the IPD meta-analyses and IPD retrieval rate. The IPD retrieval rate of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group has declined from 83% (up to 2005) to 65% (between 2012 and 2015) and the reported reasons for lack of data availability have changed in recent years. Conclusions IPD meta-analyses are considered to be the “gold standard” for the synthesis of data from clinical research studies; however, only 25% of published IPD meta-analyses have had access to all IPD. PMID:28381561

Reappraisal of previously reported meta-analyses on antibiotic prophylaxis for low-risk laparoscopic cholecystectomy: an overview of systematic reviews

PubMed Central

Matsui, Yoichi; Satoi, Sohei; Hirooka, Satoshi; Kosaka, Hisashi; Kawaura, Takayuki; Kitawaki, Tomoki

2018-01-01

Introduction Many researchers have addressed overdosage and inappropriate use of antibiotics. Many meta-analyses have investigated antibiotic prophylaxis for low-risk laparoscopic cholecystectomy with the aim of reducing unnecessary antibiotic use. Most of these meta-analyses have concluded that prophylactic antibiotics are not required for low-risk laparoscopic cholecystectomies. This study aimed to assess the validity of this conclusion by systematically reviewing these meta-analyses. Methods A systematic review was undertaken. Searches were limited to meta-analyses and systematic reviews. PubMed and Cochrane Library electronic databases were searched from inception until March 2016 using the following keyword combinations: ‘antibiotic prophylaxis’, ‘laparoscopic cholecystectomy’ and ‘systematic review or meta-analysis’. Two independent reviewers selected meta-analyses or systematic reviews evaluating prophylactic antibiotics for laparoscopic cholecystectomy. All of the randomised controlled trials (RCTs) analysed in these meta-analyses were also reviewed. Results Seven meta-analyses regarding prophylactic antibiotics for low-risk laparoscopic cholecystectomy that had examined a total of 28 RCTs were included. Review of these meta-analyses revealed 48 miscounts of the number of outcomes. Six RCTs were inappropriate for the meta-analyses; one targeted patients with acute cholecystitis, another measured inappropriate outcomes, the original source of a third was not found and the study protocols of the remaining three were not appropriate for the meta-analyses. After correcting the above miscounts and excluding the six inappropriate RCTs, pooled risk ratios (RRs) were recalculated. These showed that, contrary to what had previously been concluded, antibiotics significantly reduced the risk of postoperative infections. The rates of surgical site, distant and overall infections were all significantly reduced by antibiotic administration (RR (95% CI); 0.71 (0.51 to 0.99), 0.37 (0.19 to 0.73), 0.50 (0.34 to 0.75), respectively). Conclusions Prophylactic antibiotics reduce the incidence of postoperative infections after elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. PMID:29549197

Understanding sport continuation: an integration of the theories of planned behaviour and basic psychological needs.

PubMed

Gucciardi, Daniel F; Jackson, Ben

2015-01-01

Fostering individuals' long-term participation in activities that promote positive development such as organised sport is an important agenda for research and practice. We integrated the theories of planned behaviour (TPB) and basic psychological needs (BPN) to identify factors associated with young adults' continuation in organised sport over a 12-month period. Prospective study, including an online psycho-social assessment at Time 1 and an assessment of continuation in sport approximately 12 months later. Participants (N=292) aged between 17 and 21 years (M=18.03; SD=1.29) completed an online survey assessing the theories of planned behaviour and basic psychological needs constructs. Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) was employed to test the hypothesised theoretical sequence, using informative priors for structural relations based on empirical and theoretical expectations. The analyses revealed support for the robustness of the hypothesised theoretical model in terms of the pattern of relations as well as the direction and strength of associations among the constructs derived from quantitative summaries of existing research and theoretical expectations. The satisfaction of basic psychological needs was associated with more positive attitudes, higher levels of perceived behavioural control, and more favourable subjective norms; positive attitudes and perceived behavioural control were associated with higher behavioural intentions; and both intentions and perceived behavioural control predicted sport continuation. This study demonstrated the utility of Bayesian structural equation modelling for testing the robustness of an integrated theoretical model, which is informed by empirical evidence from meta-analyses and theoretical expectations, for understanding sport continuation. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular risk: recommendations for treatment.

PubMed

Palmeiro, Christopher; Davila, Maria I; Bhat, Mallika; Frishman, William H; Weiss, Irene A

2013-01-01

Subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHy), the mildest form of hyperthyroidism, is diagnosed in patients having a persistently low or undetectable serum concentration of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with normal free T4 and T3 concentrations. Although overt hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, the cardiovascular risk of SHy is controversial. Multiple studies have demonstrated an increased risk of atrial fibrillation, especially in older individuals with TSH levels <0.1 mU/L. The effects of SHy on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are not clear, but recent meta-analyses suggest a modest increase in mortality, with the risk increasing with age and associated with the lowest TSH levels. The long-term consequences of SHy in young- and middle-aged adults, and in those with TSH levels are mildly low, are uncertain. For these reasons, guidelines for treatment are based on patient age, the degree of TSH suppression, symptoms consistent with hyperthyroidism, and overall cardiovascular and osteoporotic fracture risks.

Apixaban to prevent stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation: a review

PubMed Central

Peterson, Benjamin E.; Al-Khatib, Sana M.; Granger, Christopher B.

2016-01-01

Atrial fibrillation is a common, costly and morbid cardiovascular arrhythmia. Stroke prevention remains the mainstay of treatment for atrial fibrillation, and the recent advent of novel oral anticoagulants with direct factor IIa or factor Xa inhibition has significantly revolutionized this aspect of treatment for atrial fibrillation patients. This review focuses on the tolerability and efficacy of apixaban and tackles the generalizability of the findings with apixaban to broader patient populations than those primarily enrolled in the clinical trials, drawing from the AVERROES and ARISTOTLE trials and their subsequent secondary analyses. Taken together, findings from these trials show that apixaban is superior to warfarin in preventing stroke with a lower risk of major bleeding in the general population of patients with atrial fibrillation as well as in several key high-risk patient subgroups. PMID:27342651

Methodological Quality of Meta-Analyses: Matched-Pairs Comparison over Time and between Industry-Sponsored and Academic-Sponsored Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Peter W.; Higgins, Julian P. T.; Anagnostelis, Betsy; Anzures-Cabrera, Judith; Baker, Nigel F.; Cappelleri, Joseph C.; Haughie, Scott; Hollis, Sally; Lewis, Steff C.; Moneuse, Patrick; Whitehead, Anne

2013-01-01

Context: Meta-analyses are regularly used to inform healthcare decisions. Concerns have been expressed about the quality of meta-analyses and, in particular, about those supported by the pharmaceutical industry. Objective: The objective of this study is to compare the quality of pharmaceutical-industry-supported meta-analyses with academic…

Less Is Less: A Systematic Review of Graph Use in Meta-Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schild, Anne H. E.; Voracek, Martin

2013-01-01

Graphs are an essential part of scientific communication. Complex datasets, of which meta-analyses are textbook examples, benefit the most from visualization. Although a number of graph options for meta-analyses exist, the extent to which these are used was hitherto unclear. A systematic review on graph use in meta-analyses in three disciplines…

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Early Versus Delayed Motion After Rotator Cuff Repair: A Systematic Review of Overlapping Meta-analyses.

PubMed

Houck, Darby A; Kraeutler, Matthew J; Schuette, Hayden B; McCarty, Eric C; Bravman, Jonathan T

2017-10-01

Previous meta-analyses have been conducted to compare outcomes of early versus delayed motion after rotator cuff repair. To conduct a systematic review of overlapping meta-analyses comparing early versus delayed motion rehabilitation protocols after rotator cuff repair to determine which meta-analyses provide the best available evidence. Systematic review. A systematic review was performed by searching PubMed and Cochrane Library databases. Search terms included "rotator cuff repair," "early passive motion," "immobilization," "rehabilitation protocol," and "meta-analysis." Results were reviewed to determine study eligibility. Patient outcomes and structural healing were extracted from these meta-analyses. Meta-analysis quality was assessed using the Oxman-Guyatt and Quality of Reporting of Meta-analyses (QUOROM) systems. The Jadad decision algorithm was then used to determine which meta-analyses provided the best level of evidence. Seven meta-analyses containing a total of 5896 patients met the eligibility criteria (1 Level I evidence, 4 Level II evidence, 2 Level III evidence). None of these meta-analyses found immobilization to be superior to early motion; however, most studies suggested that early motion would increase range of motion (ROM), thereby reducing time of recovery. Three of these studies suggested that tear size contributed to the choice of rehabilitation to ensure proper healing of the shoulder. A study by Chan et al in 2014 received the highest QUOROM and Oxman-Guyatt scores, and therefore this meta-analysis appeared to have the highest level of evidence. Additionally, a study by Riboh and Garrigues in 2014 was selected as the highest quality study in this systematic review according to the Jadad decision algorithm. The current, best available evidence suggests that early motion improves ROM after rotator cuff repair but increases the risk of rotator cuff retear. Lower quality meta-analyses indicate that tear size may provide a better strategy in determining the correct rehabilitation protocol.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of psychotherapies for post-traumatic stress disorder in children and adolescents: study protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Xinyu; Yang, Lining; Hetrick, Sarah E; Weisz, John R; Cuijpers, Pim; Barth, Jürgen; Del Giovane, Cinzia; Yuan, Shuai; Cohen, David; Gillies, Donna; Jiang, Xiaofeng; Teng, Teng; Xie, Peng

2018-03-12

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is common among children and adolescents who are exposed to trauma, and it is often associated with significant negative impacts on their psychosocial functioning and quality of life. Many types of psychotherapies have been found to be effective for PTSD in children and adolescents. However, due to the lack of direct comparisons between different psychotherapies, the hierarchy of treatment efficacy is still unclear. Therefore, we plan to conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy and acceptability of various types of psychotherapies for PTSD in children and adolescents. A systematic search will be conducted among eight electronic databases, including PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health, Published International Literature on Traumatic Stress (PILOTS) and ProQuest Dissertations, from inception to October 2017. Randomised controlled trials, regardless of language, publication year and publication type, comparing any psychotherapies for PTSD to any control condition or alternative treatment in children and adolescents (18 years old or less) diagnosed with full or subclinical PTSD will be included. Study duration and the number of treatment sessions will not be limited. The primary outcome will be PTSD symptom severity at post-treatment as measured by a rating scale reported by the child, parent or a clinician. The secondary outcomes will include: (1) efficacy at follow-up; (2) acceptability (all-cause discontinuation); (3) anxiety symptom severity; (4) depressive symptom severity and (5) quality of life and functional improvement. Bayesian network meta-analyses for all relative outcome measures will be performed. We will conduct subgroup and sensitivity network meta-analyses to determine whether the findings are affected by study characteristics. The quality of the evidence contributing to network estimates of the primary outcome will be evaluated by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework. No ethical issues are foreseen. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal, which will be disseminated electronically and in print. This network meta-analysis may be updated to inform and guide the clinical management of PTSD in children and adolescents. CRD42016051786. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

How individual participant data meta-analyses have influenced trial design, conduct, and analysis.

PubMed

Tierney, Jayne F; Pignon, Jean-Pierre; Gueffyier, Francois; Clarke, Mike; Askie, Lisa; Vale, Claire L; Burdett, Sarah

2015-11-01

To demonstrate how individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses have impacted directly on the design and conduct of trials and highlight other advantages IPD might offer. Potential examples of the impact of IPD meta-analyses on trials were identified at an international workshop, attended by individuals with experience in the conduct of IPD meta-analyses and knowledge of trials in their respective clinical areas. Experts in the field who did not attend were asked to provide any further examples. We then examined relevant trial protocols, publications, and Web sites to verify the impacts of the IPD meta-analyses. A subgroup of workshop attendees sought further examples and identified other aspects of trial design and conduct that may inform IPD meta-analyses. We identified 52 examples of IPD meta-analyses thought to have had a direct impact on the design or conduct of trials. After screening relevant trial protocols and publications, we identified 28 instances where IPD meta-analyses had clearly impacted on trials. They have influenced the selection of comparators and participants, sample size calculations, analysis and interpretation of subsequent trials, and the conduct and analysis of ongoing trials, sometimes in ways that would not possible with systematic reviews of aggregate data. We identified additional potential ways that IPD meta-analyses could be used to influence trials. IPD meta-analysis could be better used to inform the design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation of trials. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How individual participant data meta-analyses have influenced trial design, conduct, and analysis

PubMed Central

Tierney, Jayne F.; Pignon, Jean-Pierre; Gueffyier, Francois; Clarke, Mike; Askie, Lisa; Vale, Claire L.; Burdett, Sarah; Alderson, P.; Askie, L.; Bennett, D.; Burdett, S.; Clarke, M.; Dias, S.; Emberson, J.; Gueyffier, F.; Iorio, A.; Macleod, M.; Mol, B.W.; Moons, C.; Parmar, M.; Perera, R.; Phillips, R.; Pignon, J.P.; Rees, J.; Reitsma, H.; Riley, R.; Rovers, M.; Rydzewska, L.; Schmid, C.; Shepperd, S.; Stenning, S.; Stewart, L.; Tierney, J.; Tudur Smith, C.; Vale, C.; Welge, J.; White, I.; Whiteley, W.

2015-01-01

Objectives To demonstrate how individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses have impacted directly on the design and conduct of trials and highlight other advantages IPD might offer. Study Design and Setting Potential examples of the impact of IPD meta-analyses on trials were identified at an international workshop, attended by individuals with experience in the conduct of IPD meta-analyses and knowledge of trials in their respective clinical areas. Experts in the field who did not attend were asked to provide any further examples. We then examined relevant trial protocols, publications, and Web sites to verify the impacts of the IPD meta-analyses. A subgroup of workshop attendees sought further examples and identified other aspects of trial design and conduct that may inform IPD meta-analyses. Results We identified 52 examples of IPD meta-analyses thought to have had a direct impact on the design or conduct of trials. After screening relevant trial protocols and publications, we identified 28 instances where IPD meta-analyses had clearly impacted on trials. They have influenced the selection of comparators and participants, sample size calculations, analysis and interpretation of subsequent trials, and the conduct and analysis of ongoing trials, sometimes in ways that would not possible with systematic reviews of aggregate data. We identified additional potential ways that IPD meta-analyses could be used to influence trials. Conclusions IPD meta-analysis could be better used to inform the design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation of trials. PMID:26186982

Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale Versus Medical Therapy in Patients With Cryptogenic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Sagris, Dimitrios; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Vemmos, Konstantinos; Steiner, Thorsten; Michel, Patrik

2018-02-01

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses compared the efficacy and safety of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure versus medical treatment in patients with cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Recently, new evidence from randomized trials became available. We searched PubMed until September 24, 2017, for trials comparing PFO closure with medical treatment in patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA using the items: stroke or cerebrovascular accident or TIA and patent foramen ovale or paradoxical embolism and trial or study. Among 851 identified articles, 5 were eligible. In 3627 patients with 3.7-year mean follow-up, there was significant difference in ischemic stroke recurrence (0.53 versus 1.1 per 100 patient-years, respectively; odds ratio [OR], 0.43; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.21-0.90; relative risk reduction, 50.5%; absolute risk reduction, 2.11%; and number needed to treat to prevent 1 event, 46.5 for 3.7 years). There was no significant difference in TIAs (0.78 versus 0.98 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.53-1.19) and all-cause mortality (0.18 versus 0.23 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.34-1.56). New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently in the PFO closure arm (1.3 versus 0.25 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 5.15; 95% CI, 2.18-12.15) and resolved in 72% of cases within 45 days, whereas rates of myocardial infarction (0.12 versus 0.09 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.25-5.91) and any serious adverse events (7.3 versus 7.3 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.92-1.25) were similar. In patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA and PFO who have their PFO closed, ischemic stroke recurrence is less frequent compared with patients receiving medical treatment. Atrial fibrillation is more frequent but mostly transient. There is no difference in TIA, all-cause mortality, or myocardial infarction. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

A Meta-Meta-Analysis: Empirical Review of Statistical Power, Type I Error Rates, Effect Sizes, and Model Selection of Meta-Analyses Published in Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cafri, Guy; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Brannick, Michael T.

2010-01-01

This article uses meta-analyses published in "Psychological Bulletin" from 1995 to 2005 to describe meta-analyses in psychology, including examination of statistical power, Type I errors resulting from multiple comparisons, and model choice. Retrospective power estimates indicated that univariate categorical and continuous moderators, individual…

A hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests: Accounting for partial verification bias.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaoye; Chen, Yong; Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao

2016-12-01

To account for between-study heterogeneity in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, bivariate random effects models have been recommended to jointly model the sensitivities and specificities. As study design and population vary, the definition of disease status or severity could differ across studies. Consequently, sensitivity and specificity may be correlated with disease prevalence. To account for this dependence, a trivariate random effects model had been proposed. However, the proposed approach can only include cohort studies with information estimating study-specific disease prevalence. In addition, some diagnostic accuracy studies only select a subset of samples to be verified by the reference test. It is known that ignoring unverified subjects may lead to partial verification bias in the estimation of prevalence, sensitivities, and specificities in a single study. However, the impact of this bias on a meta-analysis has not been investigated. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies and correcting partial verification bias at the same time. We investigate the performance of the proposed methods through a set of simulation studies. Two case studies on assessing the diagnostic accuracy of gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in detecting lymph node metastases and of adrenal fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in characterizing adrenal masses are presented. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Hybrid Bayesian Hierarchical Model Combining Cohort and Case-control Studies for Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Tests: Accounting for Partial Verification Bias

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaoye; Chen, Yong; Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao

2014-01-01

To account for between-study heterogeneity in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, bivariate random effects models have been recommended to jointly model the sensitivities and specificities. As study design and population vary, the definition of disease status or severity could differ across studies. Consequently, sensitivity and specificity may be correlated with disease prevalence. To account for this dependence, a trivariate random effects model had been proposed. However, the proposed approach can only include cohort studies with information estimating study-specific disease prevalence. In addition, some diagnostic accuracy studies only select a subset of samples to be verified by the reference test. It is known that ignoring unverified subjects may lead to partial verification bias in the estimation of prevalence, sensitivities and specificities in a single study. However, the impact of this bias on a meta-analysis has not been investigated. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid Bayesian hierarchical model combining cohort and case-control studies and correcting partial verification bias at the same time. We investigate the performance of the proposed methods through a set of simulation studies. Two case studies on assessing the diagnostic accuracy of gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in detecting lymph node metastases and of adrenal fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in characterizing adrenal masses are presented. PMID:24862512

Ain't necessarily so: review and critique of recent meta-analyses of behavioral medicine interventions in health psychology.

PubMed

Coyne, James C; Thombs, Brett D; Hagedoorn, Mariet

2010-03-01

We examined four meta-analyses of behavioral interventions for adults (Dixon, Keefe, Scipio, Perri, & Abernethy, 2007; Hoffman, Papas, Chatkoff, & Kerns, 2007; Irwin, Cole, & Nicassio, 2006; and Jacobsen, Donovan, Vadaparampil, & Small, 2007) that have appeared in the Evidence Based Treatment Reviews section of Health Psychology. Narrative review. We applied the following criteria to each meta-analysis: (1) whether each meta-analysis was described accurately, adequately, and transparently in the article; (2) whether there was an adequate attempt to deal with methodological quality of the original trials; (3) the extent to which the meta-analysis depended on small, underpowered studies; and (4) the extent to which the meta-analysis provided valid and useful evidence-based recommendations. Across the four meta-analyses, we identified substantial problems with the transparency and completeness with which these meta-analyses were reported, as well as a dependence on small, underpowered trials of generally poor quality. Results of our exercise raise questions about the clinical validity and utility of the conclusions of these meta-analyses. Results should serve as a wake up call to prospective authors, reviewers, and end-users of meta-analyses now appearing in the literature. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

PubMed

Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

2016-05-01

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficacy and safety of left atrial appendage closure versus medical treatment in atrial fibrillation: a network meta-analysis from randomised trials.

PubMed

Sahay, Shweta; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Rodes-Cabau, Josep; Jimenez-Quevedo, Pilar; Salinas, Pablo; Biagioni, Corina; Nuñez-Gil, Ivan; Gonzalo, Nieves; de Agustín, Jose Alberto; Del Trigo, Maria; Perez de Isla, Leopoldo; Fernández-Ortiz, Antonio; Escaned, Javier; Macaya, Carlos

2017-01-15

The effectiveness of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) versus placebo and antiplatelet therapy (APT) is well established for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF). Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are mostly superior to VKA in stroke and intracranial bleeding prevention. Recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) suggested the non-inferiority of percutaneous left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) versus VKA. However, comparisons between LAAC versus placebo, APT or NOAC are lacking. The purpose of this network meta-analysis was to assess the efficacy and safety of LAAC compared with other strategies for stroke prevention in patients with AF. We pooled together all RCTs comparing warfarin with placebo, APT or NOAC in patients with AF using meta-analysis guidelines. Two major trials of LAAC were also included and a network meta-analysis was performed to compare the impact of LAAC on mortality, stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding in relation to medical treatment. The network meta-analysis included 19 RCTs with a total of 87 831 patients with AF receiving anticoagulants, APT, placebo or LAAC. Indirect comparison with network meta-analysis using warfarin as the common comparator revealed efficacy benefit favouring LAAC as compared with placebo (mortality: HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.67, p<0.001; stroke/SE: HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.52, p<0.001) and APT (mortality: HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.91, p=0.0018; stroke/SE: HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.86, p=0.017) and similar to NOAC (mortality: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.16, p=0.211; stroke/SE: HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.92, p=0.969). LAAC showed comparable rates of major bleeding when compared with placebo (HR 2.33, 95% CI 0.67 to 8.09, p=0.183), APT (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.30 to 1.88, p=0.542) and NOAC (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.94, p=0.615). The findings of this meta-analysis suggest that LAAC is superior to placebo and APT, and comparable to NOAC for preventing mortality and stroke or SE, with similar bleeding risk in patients with non-valvular AF. However, these results should be interpreted with caution and more studies are needed to further substantiate this advantage, in view of the wide CIs with some variables in the current meta-analysis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Structure Learning in Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration

PubMed Central

Genewein, Tim; Hez, Eduard; Razzaghpanah, Zeynab; Braun, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that sensorimotor processing can often be described by Bayesian learning, in particular the integration of prior and feedback information depending on its degree of reliability. Here we test the hypothesis that the integration process itself can be tuned to the statistical structure of the environment. We exposed human participants to a reaching task in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment where we could displace the visual feedback of their hand position in a two dimensional plane. When introducing statistical structure between the two dimensions of the displacement, we found that over the course of several days participants adapted their feedback integration process in order to exploit this structure for performance improvement. In control experiments we found that this adaptation process critically depended on performance feedback and could not be induced by verbal instructions. Our results suggest that structural learning is an important meta-learning component of Bayesian sensorimotor integration. PMID:26305797

False-positive findings in Cochrane meta-analyses with and without application of trial sequential analysis: an empirical review.

PubMed

Imberger, Georgina; Thorlund, Kristian; Gluud, Christian; Wetterslev, Jørn

2016-08-12

Many published meta-analyses are underpowered. We explored the role of trial sequential analysis (TSA) in assessing the reliability of conclusions in underpowered meta-analyses. We screened The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and selected 100 meta-analyses with a binary outcome, a negative result and sufficient power. We defined a negative result as one where the 95% CI for the effect included 1.00, a positive result as one where the 95% CI did not include 1.00, and sufficient power as the required information size for 80% power, 5% type 1 error, relative risk reduction of 10% or number needed to treat of 100, and control event proportion and heterogeneity taken from the included studies. We re-conducted the meta-analyses, using conventional cumulative techniques, to measure how many false positives would have occurred if these meta-analyses had been updated after each new trial. For each false positive, we performed TSA, using three different approaches. We screened 4736 systematic reviews to find 100 meta-analyses that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Using conventional cumulative meta-analysis, false positives were present in seven of the meta-analyses (7%, 95% CI 3% to 14%), occurring more than once in three. The total number of false positives was 14 and TSA prevented 13 of these (93%, 95% CI 68% to 98%). In a post hoc analysis, we found that Cochrane meta-analyses that are negative are 1.67 times more likely to be updated (95% CI 0.92 to 2.68) than those that are positive. We found false positives in 7% (95% CI 3% to 14%) of the included meta-analyses. Owing to limitations of external validity and to the decreased likelihood of updating positive meta-analyses, the true proportion of false positives in meta-analysis is probably higher. TSA prevented 93% of the false positives (95% CI 68% to 98%). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Characteristics of meta-analyses and their component studies in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews: a cross-sectional, descriptive analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Cochrane systematic reviews collate and summarise studies of the effects of healthcare interventions. The characteristics of these reviews and the meta-analyses and individual studies they contain provide insights into the nature of healthcare research and important context for the development of relevant statistical and other methods. Methods We classified every meta-analysis with at least two studies in every review in the January 2008 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) according to the medical specialty, the types of interventions being compared and the type of outcome. We provide descriptive statistics for numbers of meta-analyses, numbers of component studies and sample sizes of component studies, broken down by these categories. Results We included 2321 reviews containing 22,453 meta-analyses, which themselves consist of data from 112,600 individual studies (which may appear in more than one meta-analysis). Meta-analyses in the areas of gynaecology, pregnancy and childbirth (21%), mental health (13%) and respiratory diseases (13%) are well represented in the CDSR. Most meta-analyses address drugs, either with a control or placebo group (37%) or in a comparison with another drug (25%). The median number of meta-analyses per review is six (inter-quartile range 3 to 12). The median number of studies included in the meta-analyses with at least two studies is three (inter-quartile range 2 to 6). Sample sizes of individual studies range from 2 to 1,242,071, with a median of 91 participants. Discussion It is clear that the numbers of studies eligible for meta-analyses are typically very small for all medical areas, outcomes and interventions covered by Cochrane reviews. This highlights the particular importance of suitable methods for the meta-analysis of small data sets. There was little variation in number of studies per meta-analysis across medical areas, across outcome data types or across types of interventions being compared. PMID:22114982

Overview of Meta-Analyses of the Prevention of Mental Health, Substance Use and Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A.; Cruden, Gracelyn; Mahrer, Nicole E.; Ahn, Soyeon; Brincks, Ahnalee; Brown, C. Hendricks

2014-01-01

This paper presents findings from an overview of meta-analyses of the effects of prevention and promotion programs to prevent mental health, substance use and conduct problems. The review of 48 meta-analyses found small but significant effects to reduce depression, anxiety, anti-social behavior and substance use. Further, the effects are sustained over time. Meta-analyses often found that the effects were heterogeneous. A conceptual model is proposed to guide the study of moderators of program effects in future meta-analyses and methodological issues in synthesizing findings across preventive interventions are discussed. PMID:24471372

Meta-analysis of magnitudes, differences and variation in evolutionary parameters.

PubMed

Morrissey, M B

2016-10-01

Meta-analysis is increasingly used to synthesize major patterns in the large literatures within ecology and evolution. Meta-analytic methods that do not account for the process of observing data, which we may refer to as 'informal meta-analyses', may have undesirable properties. In some cases, informal meta-analyses may produce results that are unbiased, but do not necessarily make the best possible use of available data. In other cases, unbiased statistical noise in individual reports in the literature can potentially be converted into severe systematic biases in informal meta-analyses. I first present a general description of how failure to account for noise in individual inferences should be expected to lead to biases in some kinds of meta-analysis. In particular, informal meta-analyses of quantities that reflect the dispersion of parameters in nature, for example, the mean absolute value of a quantity, are likely to be generally highly misleading. I then re-analyse three previously published informal meta-analyses, where key inferences were of aspects of the dispersion of values in nature, for example, the mean absolute value of selection gradients. Major biological conclusions in each original informal meta-analysis closely match those that could arise as artefacts due to statistical noise. I present alternative mixed-model-based analyses that are specifically tailored to each situation, but where all analyses may be implemented with widely available open-source software. In each example meta-re-analysis, major conclusions change substantially. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Adaptability and phenotypic stability of common bean genotypes through Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Corrêa, A M; Teodoro, P E; Gonçalves, M C; Barroso, L M A; Nascimento, M; Santos, A; Torres, F E

2016-04-27

This study used Bayesian inference to investigate the genotype x environment interaction in common bean grown in Mato Grosso do Sul State, and it also evaluated the efficiency of using informative and minimally informative a priori distributions. Six trials were conducted in randomized blocks, and the grain yield of 13 common bean genotypes was assessed. To represent the minimally informative a priori distributions, a probability distribution with high variance was used, and a meta-analysis concept was adopted to represent the informative a priori distributions. Bayes factors were used to conduct comparisons between the a priori distributions. The Bayesian inference was effective for the selection of upright common bean genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability using the Eberhart and Russell method. Bayes factors indicated that the use of informative a priori distributions provided more accurate results than minimally informative a priori distributions. According to Bayesian inference, the EMGOPA-201, BAMBUÍ, CNF 4999, CNF 4129 A 54, and CNFv 8025 genotypes had specific adaptability to favorable environments, while the IAPAR 14 and IAC CARIOCA ETE genotypes had specific adaptability to unfavorable environments.

Immunotherapy in advanced melanoma: a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pyo, Jung-Soo; Kang, Guhyun

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of various immunotherapeutic agents and chemotherapy for unresected or metastatic melanomas. We performed a network meta-analysis using a Bayesian statistical model to compare objective response rate (ORR) of various immunotherapies from 12 randomized controlled studies. The estimated ORRs of immunotherapy and chemotherapy were 0.224 and 0.108, respectively. The ORRs of immunotherapy in untreated and pretreated patients were 0.279 and 0.176, respectively. In network meta-analysis, the odds ratios for ORR of nivolumab (1 mg/kg)/ipilmumab (3 mg/kg), pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg and nivolumab 3 mg/kg were 8.54, 5.39 and 4.35, respectively, compared with chemotherapy alone. Our data showed that various immunotherapies had higher ORRs rather than chemotherapy alone.

Meta-analysis using Dirichlet process.

PubMed

Muthukumarana, Saman; Tiwari, Ram C

2016-02-01

This article develops a Bayesian approach for meta-analysis using the Dirichlet process. The key aspect of the Dirichlet process in meta-analysis is the ability to assess evidence of statistical heterogeneity or variation in the underlying effects across study while relaxing the distributional assumptions. We assume that the study effects are generated from a Dirichlet process. Under a Dirichlet process model, the study effects parameters have support on a discrete space and enable borrowing of information across studies while facilitating clustering among studies. We illustrate the proposed method by applying it to a dataset on the Program for International Student Assessment on 30 countries. Results from the data analysis, simulation studies, and the log pseudo-marginal likelihood model selection procedure indicate that the Dirichlet process model performs better than conventional alternative methods. © The Author(s) 2012.

Is Operative Treatment of Achilles Tendon Ruptures Superior to Nonoperative Treatment?

PubMed Central

Erickson, Brandon J.; Mascarenhas, Randy; Saltzman, Bryan M.; Walton, David; Lee, Simon; Cole, Brian J.; Bach, Bernard R.

2015-01-01

Background: Multiple meta-analyses have been published in efforts to determine whether operative or nonoperative treatment of Achilles tendon ruptures affords superior outcomes. Purpose: To perform a systematic review of overlapping meta-analyses comparing operative and nonoperative treatment of Achilles tendon ruptures to determine which meta-analyses provide the highest level of evidence for treatment recommendations. Study Design: Systematic review; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify meta-analyses that fit the study inclusion criteria. Data were extracted from these meta-analyses regarding patient outcomes and reruptures. Meta-analysis quality was assessed using the Oxman-Guyatt and QUOROM (Quality of Reporting of Meta-analyses) systems. The Jadad algorithm was applied to determine the meta-analyses with the highest level of evidence. Results: Nine meta-analyses met the eligibility criteria, with all but 1 study including level 1 evidence. A total of 5842 patients were included. Seven studies found a higher rate of rerupture in the nonoperative group but a higher rate of complications in the operative group. One study found no differences in rerupture or complication rates, and 1 study found surgery decreased rerupture rates only when compared with nonoperative treatment without a functional brace. Three studies also identified an earlier return to work in the operative group. Almost all (8 of 9) of the meta-analyses had Oxman-Guyatt scores >3, indicating no major flaws. Conclusion: Operative treatment of Achilles tendon ruptures decreases rerupture rates but increases the risk for minor complications when compared with nonoperative treatment. Additionally, surgical treatment may allow earlier return to work. PMID:26665055

Exploring changes over time and characteristics associated with data retrieval across individual participant data meta-analyses: systematic review.

PubMed

Nevitt, Sarah J; Marson, Anthony G; Davie, Becky; Reynolds, Sally; Williams, Lisa; Smith, Catrin Tudur

2017-04-05

Objective  To investigate whether the success rate of retrieving individual participant data (IPD) for use in IPD meta-analyses has increased over time, and to explore the characteristics associated with IPD retrieval. Design  Systematic review of published IPD meta-analyses, supplemented by a reflection of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group's 20 years' experience of requesting IPD. Data sources  Medline, CENTRAL, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and PsycINFO. Eligibility criteria for study selection  IPD meta-analyses of studies of all designs and all clinical areas published in English. Results  760 IPD meta-analyses which identified studies by systematic methods that had been published between 1987 and 2015 were included. Only 188 (25%) of these IPD meta-analyses retrieved 100% of the eligible IPD for analysis, with 324 (43%) of these IPD meta-analyses retrieving 80% or more of relevant IPD. There is insufficient evidence to suggest that IPD retrieval rates have improved over time. IPD meta-analyses that included only randomised trials, had an authorship policy, included fewer eligible participants, and were conducted outside of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were associated with a high or complete IPD retrieval rate. There was no association between the source of funding of the IPD meta-analyses and IPD retrieval rate. The IPD retrieval rate of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group has declined from 83% (up to 2005) to 65% (between 2012 and 2015) and the reported reasons for lack of data availability have changed in recent years. Conclusions  IPD meta-analyses are considered to be the "gold standard" for the synthesis of data from clinical research studies; however, only 25% of published IPD meta-analyses have had access to all IPD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Long-Term Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Treatment.

PubMed

Tornyos, Adrienn; Kehl, Dániel; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Komócsi, András

2016-01-01

The relative cardiovascular (CV) safety of oral anticoagulants continues to be debated, and in particular concerns for risk of myocardial infarction (MI) have been raised. We analyzed the risk of MI in patients treated long term with oral anticoagulants (vitamin K antagonists [VKA], direct thrombin inhibitors or activated X factor antagonist) for atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism using a network meta-analysis (NMA). Randomized, phase 3 trials comparing novel anticoagulants to VKA were searched. Information on study design and clinical outcomes was extracted. The primary end-point of the analysis was the occurrence of MI or acute coronary syndrome. A Bayesian multiple treatment analysis was performed using fixed-effect and random-effects modeling. Twelve trials including 100,524 randomized patients were analyzed. The odds for MI in NMA were worse with dabigatran when compared to VKA, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban (OR: 0.66 CI: 0.49-0.87; OR: 0.56 CI: 0.38-0.82, OR: 0.59 CI 0.40-0.88, and OR: 0.71 CI: 0.50-1.0, respectively).The posterior probability of being the first best choice of treatment was 53.5% for rivaroxaban, 33.8% for apixaban, 9.5% for ximelagatran, 2.0% for edoxaban, 1.2% for VKA, and 0.007% for dabigatran. There is a considerable heterogeneity regarding CV safety among oral anticoagulants. Differences in risk of MI may influence the choice of treatment. Multiple treatment NMA found 29%-44% higher odds of MI with dabigatran supporting the concerns regarding its CV safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

It Could Have Been True: How Counterfactual Thoughts Reduce Condemnation of Falsehoods and Increase Political Polarization.

PubMed

Effron, Daniel A

2018-05-01

This research demonstrates how counterfactual thoughts can lead people to excuse others for telling falsehoods. When a falsehood aligned with participants' political preferences, reflecting on how it could have been true led them to judge it as less unethical to tell, which in turn led them to judge a politician who told it as having a more moral character and deserving less punishment. When a falsehood did not align with political preferences, this effect was significantly smaller and less reliable, in part because people doubted the plausibility of the relevant counterfactual thoughts. These results emerged independently in three studies (two preregistered; total N = 2,783) and in meta- and Bayesian analyses, regardless of whether participants considered the same counterfactuals or generated their own. The results reveal how counterfactual thoughts can amplify partisan differences in judgments of alleged dishonesty. I discuss implications for theories of counterfactual thinking and motivated moral reasoning.

Hydrophobic tail length plays a pivotal role in amyloid beta (25-35) fibril-surfactant interactions.

PubMed

Bag, Sudipta; Chaudhury, Susmitnarayan; Pramanik, Dibyendu; DasGupta, Sunando; Dasgupta, Swagata

2016-09-01

The amyloid β-peptide fragment comprising residues 25-35 (Aβ25-35 ) is known to be the most toxic fragment of the full length Aβ peptide which undergoes fibrillation very rapidly. In the present work, we have investigated the effects of the micellar environment (cationic, anionic, and nonionic) on preformed Aβ25-35 fibrils. The amyloid fibrils have been prepared and characterized by several biophysical and microscopic techniques. Effects of cationic dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DTAB), cetyl trimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), and nonionic polyoxyethyleneoctyl phenyl ether (Triton X-100 or TX) on fibrils have been studied by Thioflavin T fluorescence, UV-vis spectroscopy based turbidity assay and microscopic analyses. Interestingly, DTAB and SDS micelles were observed to disintegrate prepared fibrils to some extent irrespective of their charges. CTAB micelles were found to break down the fibrillar assembly to a greater extent. On the other hand, the nonionic surfactant TX was found to trigger the fibrillation process. The presence of a longer hydrophobic tail in case of CTAB is assumed to be a reason for its higher fibril disaggregating efficacy, the premise of their formation being largely attributed to hydrophobic interactions. Proteins 2016; 84:1213-1223. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inhibition of insulin amyloid fibrillation by Morin hydrate.

PubMed

Patel, Palak; Parmar, Krupali; Das, Mili

2018-03-01

We report here the inhibition of amyloid fibrillation of human insulin in vitro by Morin hydrate, a naturally occurring small molecule. Using spectroscopic assays and transmission electron microscopy, we found that Morin hydrate effectively inhibits insulin amyloid fibrillation in a dose dependent manner with more than 80% inhibition occurring even at only a 1:1 concentration. As suggested by fluorescence spectroscopic titration studies, Morin hydrate binds to insulin with a fairly strong affinity of -26.436kJmol -1 . Circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy was used to analyse structural changes of insulin in the presence of Morin hydrate demonstrating the ability of Morin hydrate to bind with the native monomeric protein and/or its near native state, intermediate oligomeric species and amyloid fibrils. Based on computational docking and molecular dynamics study, we propose that Morin hydrate binds to residues having greater aggregation propensity and prevent structural and/or conformational changes leading to amyloid fibrillation. Morin hydrate should also bind to fibrils by hydrogen bonding and/or hydrophobic forces throughout the surface, stabilize them and inhibit the release of oligomeric species which could be nuclei or template for further fibrillation. Overall results provide an insight into the mechanism of inhibition of insulin amyloid fibrillation by Morin hydrate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-epidemiologic study showed frequent time trends in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

Cohen, Jérémie F; Korevaar, Daniël A; Wang, Junfeng; Leeflang, Mariska M; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2016-09-01

To evaluate changes over time in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. We included 48 meta-analyses from 35 MEDLINE-indexed systematic reviews published between September 2011 and January 2012 (743 diagnostic accuracy studies; 344,015 participants). Within each meta-analysis, we ranked studies by publication date. We applied random-effects cumulative meta-analysis to follow how summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity evolved over time. Time trends were assessed by fitting a weighted linear regression model of the summary accuracy estimate against rank of publication. The median of the 48 slopes was -0.02 (-0.08 to 0.03) for sensitivity and -0.01 (-0.03 to 0.03) for specificity. Twelve of 96 (12.5%) time trends in sensitivity or specificity were statistically significant. We found a significant time trend in at least one accuracy measure for 11 of the 48 (23%) meta-analyses. Time trends in summary estimates are relatively frequent in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. Results from early meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies should be considered with caution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Review of Meta-Analyses in Education: Methodological Strengths and Weaknesses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahn, Soyeon; Ames, Allison J.; Myers, Nicholas D.

2012-01-01

The current review addresses the validity of published meta-analyses in education that determines the credibility and generalizability of study findings using a total of 56 meta-analyses published in education in the 2000s. Our objectives were to evaluate the current meta-analytic practices in education, identify methodological strengths and…

Albendazole and Corticosteroids for the Treatment of Solitary Cysticercus Granuloma: A Network Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Bing-Cheng; Jiang, Hong-Ye; Ma, Wei-Ying; Jin, Da-Di; Li, Hao-Miao; Lu, Hai; Nakajima, Hideaki; Huang, Tong-Yi; Sun, Kai-Yu; Chen, Shu-Ling; Chen, Ke-Bing

2016-02-01

Solitary cysticercus granuloma (SCG) is the commonest form of neurocysticercosis in the Indian subcontinent and in travelers. Several different treatment options exist for SCG. We conducted a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to identify the best treatment option to prevent seizure recurrence and promote lesion resolution for patients with SCG. PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library databases (up to June 1, 2015) were searched for RCTs that compared any anthelmintics or corticosteroids, alone or in combination, with placebo or head to head and reported on seizure recurrence and lesion resolution in patients with SCG. A total of 14 RCTs (1277 patients) were included in the quantitative analysis focusing on four different treatment options. A Bayesian network model computing odds ratios (OR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI) and probability of being best (Pbest) was used to compare all interventions simultaneously. Albendazole and corticosteroids combination therapy was the only regimen that significantly decreased the risk of seizure recurrence compared with conservative treatment (OR 0.32, 95% CrI 0.10-0.93, Pbest 73.3%). Albendazole and corticosteroids alone or in combination were all efficacious in hastening granuloma resolution, but the combined therapy remained the best option based on probability analysis (OR 3.05, 95% CrI 1.24-7.95, Pbest 53.9%). The superiority of the combination therapy changed little in RCTs with different follow-up durations and in sensitivity analyses. The limitations of this study include high risk of bias and short follow-up duration in most studies. Dual therapy of albendazole and corticosteroids was the most efficacious regimen that could prevent seizure recurrence and promote lesion resolution in a follow-up period of around one year. It should be recommended for the management of SCG until more high-quality evidence is available.

Albendazole and Corticosteroids for the Treatment of Solitary Cysticercus Granuloma: A Network Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Nakajima, Hideaki; Huang, Tong-Yi; Sun, Kai-Yu; Chen, Shu-Ling; Chen, Ke-Bing

2016-01-01

Background Solitary cysticercus granuloma (SCG) is the commonest form of neurocysticercosis in the Indian subcontinent and in travelers. Several different treatment options exist for SCG. We conducted a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to identify the best treatment option to prevent seizure recurrence and promote lesion resolution for patients with SCG. Methods and Principal Findings PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library databases (up to June 1, 2015) were searched for RCTs that compared any anthelmintics or corticosteroids, alone or in combination, with placebo or head to head and reported on seizure recurrence and lesion resolution in patients with SCG. A total of 14 RCTs (1277 patients) were included in the quantitative analysis focusing on four different treatment options. A Bayesian network model computing odds ratios (OR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI) and probability of being best (Pbest) was used to compare all interventions simultaneously. Albendazole and corticosteroids combination therapy was the only regimen that significantly decreased the risk of seizure recurrence compared with conservative treatment (OR 0.32, 95% CrI 0.10–0.93, Pbest 73.3%). Albendazole and corticosteroids alone or in combination were all efficacious in hastening granuloma resolution, but the combined therapy remained the best option based on probability analysis (OR 3.05, 95% CrI 1.24–7.95, Pbest 53.9%). The superiority of the combination therapy changed little in RCTs with different follow-up durations and in sensitivity analyses. The limitations of this study include high risk of bias and short follow-up duration in most studies. Conclusions Dual therapy of albendazole and corticosteroids was the most efficacious regimen that could prevent seizure recurrence and promote lesion resolution in a follow-up period of around one year. It should be recommended for the management of SCG until more high-quality evidence is available. PMID:26849048

Comparison of sedation strategies for critically ill patients: a protocol for a systematic review incorporating network meta-analyses.

PubMed

Hutton, Brian; Burry, Lisa D; Kanji, Salmaan; Mehta, Sangeeta; Guenette, Melanie; Martin, Claudio M; Fergusson, Dean A; Adhikari, Neill K; Egerod, Ingrid; Williamson, David; Straus, Sharon; Moher, David; Ely, E Wesley; Rose, Louise

2016-09-20

Sedatives and analgesics are administered to provide sedation and manage agitation and pain in most critically ill mechanically ventilated patients. Various sedation administration strategies including protocolized sedation and daily sedation interruption are used to mitigate drug pharmacokinetic limitations and minimize oversedation, thereby shortening the duration of mechanical ventilation. At present, it is unclear which strategy is most effective, as few have been directly compared. Our review will use network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare and rank sedation strategies to determine their efficacy and safety for mechanically ventilated patients. We will search the following from 1980 to March 2016: Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science. We will also search the Cochrane Library, gray literature, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We will use a validated randomized control trial search filter to identify studies evaluating any strategy to optimize sedation in mechanically ventilated adult patients. Authors will independently extract data from eligible studies in duplicate and complete the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Our outcomes of interest include duration of mechanical ventilation, time to first extubation, ICU and hospital length of stay, re-intubation, tracheostomy, mortality, total sedative and opioid exposure, health-related quality of life, and adverse events. To inform our NMA, we will first conduct conventional pair-wise meta-analyses using random-effects models. Where appropriate, we will perform Bayesian NMA using WinBUGS software. There are multiple strategies to optimize sedation for mechanically ventilated patients. Current ICU guidelines recommend protocolized sedation or daily sedation interruption. Our systematic review incorporating NMA will provide a unified analysis of all sedation strategies to determine the relative efficacy and safety of interventions that may not have been compared directly. We will provide knowledge users, decision makers, and professional societies with ranking of multiple sedation strategies to inform future sedation guidelines. PROSPERO CRD42016037480.

Network Meta-Analysis of Erlotinib, Gefitinib, Afatinib and Icotinib in Patients with Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Harboring EGFR Mutations

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yuanyuan; Yang, Yunpeng; Hu, Zhihuang; Xue, Cong; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Jianwei; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Yan, Yue; Hou, Xue; Qin, Tao; Dinglin, Xiaoxiao; Tian, Ying; Huang, Peiyu; Huang, Yan; Zhao, Hongyun; Zhang, Li

2014-01-01

Background Several EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) including erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib and icotinib are currently available as treatment for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who harbor EGFR mutations. However, no head to head trials between these TKIs in mutated populations have been reported, which provides room for indirect and integrated comparisons. Methods We searched electronic databases for eligible literatures. Pooled data on objective response rate (ORR), progression free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) were calculated. Appropriate networks for different outcomes were established to incorporate all evidences. Multiple-treatments comparisons (MTCs) based on Bayesian network integrated the efficacy and specific toxicities of all included treatments. Results Twelve phase III RCTs that investigated EGFR-TKIs involving 1821 participants with EGFR mutation were included. For mutant patients, the weighted pooled ORR and 1-year PFS of EGFR-TKIs were significant superior to that of standard chemotherapy (ORR: 66.6% vs. 30.9%, OR 5.46, 95%CI 3.59 to 8.30, P<0.00001; 1-year PFS: 42.9% vs. 9.7%, OR 7.83, 95%CI 4.50 to 13.61; P<0.00001) through direct meta-analysis. In the network meta-analyses, no statistically significant differences in efficacy were found between these four TKIs with respect to all outcome measures. Trend analyses of rank probabilities revealed that the cumulative probabilities of being the most efficacious treatments were (ORR, 1-year PFS, 1-year OS, 2-year OS): erlotinib (51%, 38%, 14%, 19%), gefitinib (1%, 6%, 5%, 16%), afatinib (29%, 27%, 30%, 27%) and icotinib (19%, 29%, NA, NA), respectively. However, afatinib and erlotinib showed significant severer rash and diarrhea compared with gefitinib and icotinib. Conclusions The current study indicated that erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib and icotinib shared equivalent efficacy but presented different efficacy-toxicity pattern for EGFR-mutated patients. Erlotinib and afatinib revealed potentially better efficacy but significant higher toxicities compared with gefitinib and icotinib. PMID:24533047

Network meta-analysis of erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib and icotinib in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer harboring EGFR mutations.

PubMed

Liang, Wenhua; Wu, Xuan; Fang, Wenfeng; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Yang, Yunpeng; Hu, Zhihuang; Xue, Cong; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Jianwei; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Yan, Yue; Hou, Xue; Qin, Tao; Dinglin, Xiaoxiao; Tian, Ying; Huang, Peiyu; Huang, Yan; Zhao, Hongyun; Zhang, Li

2014-01-01

Several EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) including erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib and icotinib are currently available as treatment for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who harbor EGFR mutations. However, no head to head trials between these TKIs in mutated populations have been reported, which provides room for indirect and integrated comparisons. We searched electronic databases for eligible literatures. Pooled data on objective response rate (ORR), progression free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) were calculated. Appropriate networks for different outcomes were established to incorporate all evidences. Multiple-treatments comparisons (MTCs) based on Bayesian network integrated the efficacy and specific toxicities of all included treatments. Twelve phase III RCTs that investigated EGFR-TKIs involving 1821 participants with EGFR mutation were included. For mutant patients, the weighted pooled ORR and 1-year PFS of EGFR-TKIs were significant superior to that of standard chemotherapy (ORR: 66.6% vs. 30.9%, OR 5.46, 95%CI 3.59 to 8.30, P<0.00001; 1-year PFS: 42.9% vs. 9.7%, OR 7.83, 95%CI 4.50 to 13.61; P<0.00001) through direct meta-analysis. In the network meta-analyses, no statistically significant differences in efficacy were found between these four TKIs with respect to all outcome measures. Trend analyses of rank probabilities revealed that the cumulative probabilities of being the most efficacious treatments were (ORR, 1-year PFS, 1-year OS, 2-year OS): erlotinib (51%, 38%, 14%, 19%), gefitinib (1%, 6%, 5%, 16%), afatinib (29%, 27%, 30%, 27%) and icotinib (19%, 29%, NA, NA), respectively. However, afatinib and erlotinib showed significant severer rash and diarrhea compared with gefitinib and icotinib. The current study indicated that erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib and icotinib shared equivalent efficacy but presented different efficacy-toxicity pattern for EGFR-mutated patients. Erlotinib and afatinib revealed potentially better efficacy but significant higher toxicities compared with gefitinib and icotinib.

Panning for the gold in health research: incorporating studies' methodological quality in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Johnson, Blair T; Low, Robert E; MacDonald, Hayley V

2015-01-01

Systematic reviews now routinely assess methodological quality to gauge the validity of the included studies and of the synthesis as a whole. Although trends from higher quality studies should be clearer, it is uncertain how often meta-analyses incorporate methodological quality in models of study results either as predictors, or, more interestingly, in interactions with theoretical moderators. We survey 200 meta-analyses in three health promotion domains to examine when and how meta-analyses incorporate methodological quality. Although methodological quality assessments commonly appear in contemporary meta-analyses (usually as scales), they are rarely incorporated in analyses, and still more rarely analysed in interaction with theoretical determinants of the success of health promotions. The few meta-analyses (2.5%) that did include such an interaction analysis showed that moderator results remained significant in higher quality studies or were present only among higher quality studies. We describe how to model quality interactively with theoretically derived moderators and discuss strengths and weaknesses of this approach and in relation to current meta-analytic practice. In large literatures exhibiting heterogeneous effects, meta-analyses can incorporate methodological quality and generate conclusions that enable greater confidence not only about the substantive phenomenon but also about the role that methodological quality itself plays.

Bayesian meta-analytical methods to incorporate multiple surrogate endpoints in drug development process.

PubMed

Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Riley, Richard D; Abrams, Keith R

2016-03-30

A number of meta-analytical methods have been proposed that aim to evaluate surrogate endpoints. Bivariate meta-analytical methods can be used to predict the treatment effect for the final outcome from the treatment effect estimate measured on the surrogate endpoint while taking into account the uncertainty around the effect estimate for the surrogate endpoint. In this paper, extensions to multivariate models are developed aiming to include multiple surrogate endpoints with the potential benefit of reducing the uncertainty when making predictions. In this Bayesian multivariate meta-analytic framework, the between-study variability is modelled in a formulation of a product of normal univariate distributions. This formulation is particularly convenient for including multiple surrogate endpoints and flexible for modelling the outcomes which can be surrogate endpoints to the final outcome and potentially to one another. Two models are proposed, first, using an unstructured between-study covariance matrix by assuming the treatment effects on all outcomes are correlated and second, using a structured between-study covariance matrix by assuming treatment effects on some of the outcomes are conditionally independent. While the two models are developed for the summary data on a study level, the individual-level association is taken into account by the use of the Prentice's criteria (obtained from individual patient data) to inform the within study correlations in the models. The modelling techniques are investigated using an example in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis where the disability worsening is the final outcome, while relapse rate and MRI lesions are potential surrogates to the disability progression. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toward understanding insulin fibrillation.

PubMed

Brange, J; Andersen, L; Laursen, E D; Meyn, G; Rasmussen, E

1997-05-01

Formation of insulin fibrils is a physical process by which partially unfolded insulin molecules interact with each other to form linear aggregates. Shielding of hydrophobic domains is the main driving force for this process, but formation of intermolecular beta-sheet may further stabilize the fibrillar structure. Conformational displacement of the B-chain C-terminal with exposure of nonpolar, aliphatic core residues, including A2, A3, B11, and B15, plays a crucial role in the fibrillation process. Recent crystal analyses and molecular modeling studies have suggested that when insulin fibrillates this exposed domain interacts with a hydrophobic surface domain formed by the aliphatic residues A13, B6, B14, B17, and B18, normally buried when three insulin dimers form a hexamer. In rabbit immunization experiments, insulin fibrils did not elicit an increased immune response with respect to formation of IgG insulin antibodies when compared with native insulin. In contrast, the IgE response increased with increasing content of insulin in fibrillar form. Strategies and practical approaches to prevent insulin from forming fibrils are reviewed. Stabilization of the insulin hexameric structure and blockage of hydrophobic interfaces by addition of surfactants are the most effective means of counteracting insulin fibrillation.

Using meta-information of a posteriori Bayesian solutions of the hypocentre location task for improving accuracy of location error estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debski, Wojciech

2015-06-01

The spatial location of sources of seismic waves is one of the first tasks when transient waves from natural (uncontrolled) sources are analysed in many branches of physics, including seismology, oceanology, to name a few. Source activity and its spatial variability in time, the geometry of recording network, the complexity and heterogeneity of wave velocity distribution are all factors influencing the performance of location algorithms and accuracy of the achieved results. Although estimating of the earthquake foci location is relatively simple, a quantitative estimation of the location accuracy is really a challenging task even if the probabilistic inverse method is used because it requires knowledge of statistics of observational, modelling and a priori uncertainties. In this paper, we addressed this task when statistics of observational and/or modelling errors are unknown. This common situation requires introduction of a priori constraints on the likelihood (misfit) function which significantly influence the estimated errors. Based on the results of an analysis of 120 seismic events from the Rudna copper mine operating in southwestern Poland, we propose an approach based on an analysis of Shanon's entropy calculated for the a posteriori distribution. We show that this meta-characteristic of the a posteriori distribution carries some information on uncertainties of the solution found.

Imputation-Based Meta-Analysis of Severe Malaria in Three African Populations

PubMed Central

Band, Gavin; Le, Quang Si; Jostins, Luke; Pirinen, Matti; Kivinen, Katja; Jallow, Muminatou; Sisay-Joof, Fatoumatta; Bojang, Kalifa; Pinder, Margaret; Sirugo, Giorgio; Conway, David J.; Nyirongo, Vysaul; Kachala, David; Molyneux, Malcolm; Taylor, Terrie; Ndila, Carolyne; Peshu, Norbert; Marsh, Kevin; Williams, Thomas N.; Alcock, Daniel; Andrews, Robert; Edkins, Sarah; Gray, Emma; Hubbart, Christina; Jeffreys, Anna; Rowlands, Kate; Schuldt, Kathrin; Clark, Taane G.; Small, Kerrin S.; Teo, Yik Ying; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.; Rockett, Kirk A.; Barrett, Jeffrey C.; Spencer, Chris C. A.

2013-01-01

Combining data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted at different locations, using genotype imputation and fixed-effects meta-analysis, has been a powerful approach for dissecting complex disease genetics in populations of European ancestry. Here we investigate the feasibility of applying the same approach in Africa, where genetic diversity, both within and between populations, is far more extensive. We analyse genome-wide data from approximately 5,000 individuals with severe malaria and 7,000 population controls from three different locations in Africa. Our results show that the standard approach is well powered to detect known malaria susceptibility loci when sample sizes are large, and that modern methods for association analysis can control the potential confounding effects of population structure. We show that pattern of association around the haemoglobin S allele differs substantially across populations due to differences in haplotype structure. Motivated by these observations we consider new approaches to association analysis that might prove valuable for multicentre GWAS in Africa: we relax the assumptions of SNP–based fixed effect analysis; we apply Bayesian approaches to allow for heterogeneity in the effect of an allele on risk across studies; and we introduce a region-based test to allow for heterogeneity in the location of causal alleles. PMID:23717212

Cost-effectiveness of dabigatran etexilate in the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation in Belgium.

PubMed

Wouters, Hanne; Thijs, Vincent; Annemans, Lieven

2013-01-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran etexilate ('dabigatran') vs vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in the Belgian healthcare setting for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism (SE) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). A Markov model was used to calculate the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran vs VKAs in Belgium, whereby warfarin was considered representative for the VKA class. Efficacy and safety data were taken from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial and a network meta-analysis. Local resource use and unit costs were included in the model. Effectiveness was expressed in Quality Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs). The model outcomes were total costs, total QALYs, incremental costs, incremental QALYs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The level of International Normalized Ratio (INR) control and the use of other antithrombotic therapies observed in Belgian clinical practice were reflected in two scenario analyses. In the base case analysis, total costs per patient were €13,333 for dabigatran and €12,454 for warfarin. Total QALYs per patient were 9.51 for dabigatran and 9.19 for warfarin. The corresponding ICER was €2807/QALY. The ICER of dabigatran was €970/QALY vs warfarin with real-world INR control and €5296/QALY vs a mix of warfarin, aspirin, and no treatment. Results were shown to be robust in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The analysis does not include long-term costs for clinical events, as these data were not available for Belgium. As in any economic model based on data from a randomized clinical trial, several assumptions had to be made when extrapolating results to routine clinical practice in Belgium. This analysis suggests that dabigatran, a novel oral anticoagulant, is a cost-effective treatment for the prevention of stroke and SE in patients with non-valvular AF in the Belgian healthcare setting.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin therapy vs. alternative anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Pink, J; Pirmohamed, M; Lane, S; Hughes, D A

2014-02-01

Pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin dosing is an alternative to standard clinical algorithms and new oral anticoagulants for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. However, clinical evidence for pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin dosing is limited to intermediary outcomes, and consequently, there is a lack of information on the cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation treatment options. A clinical trial simulation of S-warfarin was used to predict times within therapeutic range for different dosing algorithms. Relative risks of clinical events, obtained from a meta-analysis of trials linking times within therapeutic range with outcomes, served as inputs to an economic analysis. Neither dabigatran nor rivaroxaban were cost-effective options. Along the cost-effectiveness frontier, in relation to clinically dosed warfarin, pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin and apixaban had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £13,226 and £20,671 per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively. On the basis of our simulations, apixaban appears to be the most cost-effective treatment.

Mechanical properties of amyloid-like fibrils defined by secondary structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortolini, C.; Jones, N. C.; Hoffmann, S. V.; Wang, C.; Besenbacher, F.; Dong, M.

2015-04-01

Amyloid and amyloid-like fibrils represent a generic class of highly ordered nanostructures that are implicated in some of the most fatal neurodegenerative diseases. On the other hand, amyloids, by possessing outstanding mechanical robustness, have also been successfully employed as functional biomaterials. For these reasons, physical and chemical factors driving fibril self-assembly and morphology are extensively studied - among these parameters, the secondary structures and the pH have been revealed to be crucial, since a variation in pH changes the fibril morphology and net chirality during protein aggregation. It is important to quantify the mechanical properties of these fibrils in order to help the design of effective strategies for treating diseases related to the presence of amyloid fibrils. In this work, we show that by changing pH the mechanical properties of amyloid-like fibrils vary as well. In particular, we reveal that these mechanical properties are strongly related to the content of secondary structures. We analysed and estimated the Young's modulus (E) by comparing the persistence length (Lp) - measured from the observation of TEM images by using statistical mechanics arguments - with the mechanical information provided by peak force quantitative nanomechanical property mapping (PF-QNM). The secondary structure content and the chirality are investigated by means of synchrotron radiation circular dichroism (SR-CD). Results arising from this study could be fruitfully used as a protocol to investigate other medical or engineering relevant peptide fibrils.Amyloid and amyloid-like fibrils represent a generic class of highly ordered nanostructures that are implicated in some of the most fatal neurodegenerative diseases. On the other hand, amyloids, by possessing outstanding mechanical robustness, have also been successfully employed as functional biomaterials. For these reasons, physical and chemical factors driving fibril self-assembly and morphology are extensively studied - among these parameters, the secondary structures and the pH have been revealed to be crucial, since a variation in pH changes the fibril morphology and net chirality during protein aggregation. It is important to quantify the mechanical properties of these fibrils in order to help the design of effective strategies for treating diseases related to the presence of amyloid fibrils. In this work, we show that by changing pH the mechanical properties of amyloid-like fibrils vary as well. In particular, we reveal that these mechanical properties are strongly related to the content of secondary structures. We analysed and estimated the Young's modulus (E) by comparing the persistence length (Lp) - measured from the observation of TEM images by using statistical mechanics arguments - with the mechanical information provided by peak force quantitative nanomechanical property mapping (PF-QNM). The secondary structure content and the chirality are investigated by means of synchrotron radiation circular dichroism (SR-CD). Results arising from this study could be fruitfully used as a protocol to investigate other medical or engineering relevant peptide fibrils. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: A molecular model for the peptide studied and the charge chart associated to it. In addition, an AFM image of pH 4 fibrils is presented. See DOI: 10.1039/c4nr05109b

PA700, the regulatory complex of the 26S proteasome, interferes with alpha-synuclein assembly.

PubMed

Ghee, Medeva; Melki, Ronald; Michot, Nadine; Mallet, Jacques

2005-08-01

Parkinson's disease is characterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the nigrostriatal pathway accompanied by the presence of intracellular cytoplasmic inclusions, termed Lewy bodies. Fibrillized alpha-synuclein forms the major component of Lewy bodies. We reported a specific interaction between rat alpha-synuclein and tat binding protein 1, a subunit of PA700, the regulatory complex of the 26S proteasome. It has been demonstrated that PA700 prevents the aggregation of misfolded, nonubiquinated substrates. In this study, we examine the effect of PA700 on the aggregation of wild-type and A53T mutant alpha-synuclein. PA700 inhibits both wild-type and A53T alpha-synuclein fibril formation as measured by Thioflavin T fluorescence. Using size exclusion chromatography, we present evidence for a stable PA700-alpha-synuclein complex. Sedimentation analyses reveal that PA700 sequesters alpha-synuclein in an assembly incompetent form. Analysis of the morphology of wild-type and A53T alpha-synuclein aggregates during the course of fibrillization by electron microscopy demonstrate the formation of amyloid-like fibrils. Secondary structure analyses of wild-type and A53T alpha-synuclein assembled in the presence of PA700 revealed a decrease in the overall amount of assembled alpha-synuclein with no significant change in protein conformation. Thus, PA700 acts on alpha-synuclein assembly and not on the structure of fibrils. We hypothesize that PA700 sequesters alpha-synuclein oligomeric species that are the precursors of the fibrillar form of the protein, thus preventing its assembly into fibrils.

Lifestyle Therapy for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Abdul-Aziz, Ahmad A; Altawil, Mahmoud; Lyon, Amanda; MacEachern, Mark; Richardson, Caroline R; Rubenfire, Melvyn; Pelosi, Frank; Jackson, Elizabeth A

2018-05-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. There is evidence that lifestyle interventions may serve as complementary treatments to reduce AF burden. The objective of this review was to summarize the efficacy of lifestyle interventions for the management of AF. Studies which included patients with systolic heart failure (ejection fraction ≤40%), and those limited to an examination of vigorous physical activity were excluded from our search. Studies were identified through a search of the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHIL, and PubMed, run from inception through August 2016. All studies were graded for quality using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine recommendations. Meta-analyses of the studies were not performed due to the heterogeneity of the studies. From a total of 1,811 publications, 10 articles were identified and included. Selected publications included 1 study on yoga, 2 studies on acupuncture, 3 studies that examined weight loss programs, and 4 studies that evaluated the impact of moderate physical activity. Yoga was associated with less symptomatic AF episodes and improved quality of life. Acupuncture was associated with reduced AF occurrence in patients with persistent and paroxysmal AF. Weight loss was associated with a significant reduction AF burden and symptoms. Moderate exercise resulted in greater arrhythmia free survival and a mean reduction in AF burden. In conclusion, evidence exists to suggest that yoga, weight loss, and moderate exercise are associated with reductions in AF burden and symptoms. Evidence is greatest for weight loss and moderate exercise. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

78 FR 63479 - Meta-Analyses of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials (RCTs) for the Evaluation of Risk To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-24

... methodological issues that arise in the use of meta-analyses to evaluate safety risks, followed by a discussion... design, conduct and use of meta-analysis. Although many external stakeholders conduct meta-analyses, FDA... meeting. FDA expects that this meeting will build upon prior stakeholder feedback on the design, conduct...

High statistical heterogeneity is more frequent in meta-analysis of continuous than binary outcomes.

PubMed

Alba, Ana C; Alexander, Paul E; Chang, Joanne; MacIsaac, John; DeFry, Samantha; Guyatt, Gordon H

2016-02-01

We compared the distribution of heterogeneity in meta-analyses of binary and continuous outcomes. We searched citations in MEDLINE and Cochrane databases for meta-analyses of randomized trials published in 2012 that reported a measure of heterogeneity of either binary or continuous outcomes. Two reviewers independently performed eligibility screening and data abstraction. We evaluated the distribution of I(2) in meta-analyses of binary and continuous outcomes and explored hypotheses explaining the difference in distributions. After full-text screening, we selected 671 meta-analyses evaluating 557 binary and 352 continuous outcomes. Heterogeneity as assessed by I(2) proved higher in continuous than in binary outcomes: the proportion of continuous and binary outcomes reporting an I(2) of 0% was 34% vs. 52%, respectively, and reporting an I(2) of 60-100% was 39% vs. 14%. In continuous but not binary outcomes, I(2) increased with larger number of studies included in a meta-analysis. Increased precision and sample size do not explain the larger I(2) found in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes with a larger number of studies. Meta-analyses evaluating continuous outcomes showed substantially higher I(2) than meta-analyses of binary outcomes. Results suggest differing standards for interpreting I(2) in continuous vs. binary outcomes may be appropriate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic effects influencing risk for major depressive disorder in China and Europe.

PubMed

Bigdeli, T B; Ripke, S; Peterson, R E; Trzaskowski, M; Bacanu, S-A; Abdellaoui, A; Andlauer, T F M; Beekman, A T F; Berger, K; Blackwood, D H R; Boomsma, D I; Breen, G; Buttenschøn, H N; Byrne, E M; Cichon, S; Clarke, T-K; Couvy-Duchesne, B; Craddock, N; de Geus, E J C; Degenhardt, F; Dunn, E C; Edwards, A C; Fanous, A H; Forstner, A J; Frank, J; Gill, M; Gordon, S D; Grabe, H J; Hamilton, S P; Hardiman, O; Hayward, C; Heath, A C; Henders, A K; Herms, S; Hickie, I B; Hoffmann, P; Homuth, G; Hottenga, J-J; Ising, M; Jansen, R; Kloiber, S; Knowles, J A; Lang, M; Li, Q S; Lucae, S; MacIntyre, D J; Madden, P A F; Martin, N G; McGrath, P J; McGuffin, P; McIntosh, A M; Medland, S E; Mehta, D; Middeldorp, C M; Milaneschi, Y; Montgomery, G W; Mors, O; Müller-Myhsok, B; Nauck, M; Nyholt, D R; Nöthen, M M; Owen, M J; Penninx, B W J H; Pergadia, M L; Perlis, R H; Peyrot, W J; Porteous, D J; Potash, J B; Rice, J P; Rietschel, M; Riley, B P; Rivera, M; Schoevers, R; Schulze, T G; Shi, J; Shyn, S I; Smit, J H; Smoller, J W; Streit, F; Strohmaier, J; Teumer, A; Treutlein, J; Van der Auwera, S; van Grootheest, G; van Hemert, A M; Völzke, H; Webb, B T; Weissman, M M; Wellmann, J; Willemsen, G; Witt, S H; Levinson, D F; Lewis, C M; Wray, N R; Flint, J; Sullivan, P F; Kendler, K S

2017-03-28

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common, complex psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Despite twin studies indicating its modest heritability (~30-40%), extensive heterogeneity and a complex genetic architecture have complicated efforts to detect associated genetic risk variants. We combined single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) summary statistics from the CONVERGE and PGC studies of MDD, representing 10 502 Chinese (5282 cases and 5220 controls) and 18 663 European (9447 cases and 9215 controls) subjects. We determined the fraction of SNPs displaying consistent directions of effect, assessed the significance of polygenic risk scores and estimated the genetic correlation of MDD across ancestries. Subsequent trans-ancestry meta-analyses combined SNP-level evidence of association. Sign tests and polygenic score profiling weakly support an overlap of SNP effects between East Asian and European populations. We estimated the trans-ancestry genetic correlation of lifetime MDD as 0.33; female-only and recurrent MDD yielded estimates of 0.40 and 0.41, respectively. Common variants downstream of GPHN achieved genome-wide significance by Bayesian trans-ancestry meta-analysis (rs9323497; log 10 Bayes Factor=8.08) but failed to replicate in an independent European sample (P=0.911). Gene-set enrichment analyses indicate enrichment of genes involved in neuronal development and axonal trafficking. We successfully demonstrate a partially shared polygenic basis of MDD in East Asian and European populations. Taken together, these findings support a complex etiology for MDD and possible population differences in predisposing genetic factors, with important implications for future genetic studies.

Genetic effects influencing risk for major depressive disorder in China and Europe

PubMed Central

Bigdeli, T B; Ripke, S; Peterson, R E; Trzaskowski, M; Bacanu, S-A; Abdellaoui, A; Andlauer, T F M; Beekman, A T F; Berger, K; Blackwood, D H R; Boomsma, D I; Breen, G; Buttenschøn, H N; Byrne, E M; Cichon, S; Clarke, T-K; Couvy-Duchesne, B; Craddock, N; de Geus, E J C; Degenhardt, F; Dunn, E C; Edwards, A C; Fanous, A H; Forstner, A J; Frank, J; Gill, M; Gordon, S D; Grabe, H J; Hamilton, S P; Hardiman, O; Hayward, C; Heath, A C; Henders, A K; Herms, S; Hickie, I B; Hoffmann, P; Homuth, G; Hottenga, J-J; Ising, M; Jansen, R; Kloiber, S; Knowles, J A; Lang, M; Li, Q S; Lucae, S; MacIntyre, D J; Madden, P A F; Martin, N G; McGrath, P J; McGuffin, P; McIntosh, A M; Medland, S E; Mehta, D; Middeldorp, C M; Milaneschi, Y; Montgomery, G W; Mors, O; Müller-Myhsok, B; Nauck, M; Nyholt, D R; Nöthen, M M; Owen, M J; Penninx, B W J H; Pergadia, M L; Perlis, R H; Peyrot, W J; Porteous, D J; Potash, J B; Rice, J P; Rietschel, M; Riley, B P; Rivera, M; Schoevers, R; Schulze, T G; Shi, J; Shyn, S I; Smit, J H; Smoller, J W; Streit, F; Strohmaier, J; Teumer, A; Treutlein, J; Van der Auwera, S; van Grootheest, G; van Hemert, A M; Völzke, H; Webb, B T; Weissman, M M; Wellmann, J; Willemsen, G; Witt, S H; Levinson, D F; Lewis, C M; Wray, N R; Flint, J; Sullivan, P F; Kendler, K S

2017-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common, complex psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Despite twin studies indicating its modest heritability (~30–40%), extensive heterogeneity and a complex genetic architecture have complicated efforts to detect associated genetic risk variants. We combined single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) summary statistics from the CONVERGE and PGC studies of MDD, representing 10 502 Chinese (5282 cases and 5220 controls) and 18 663 European (9447 cases and 9215 controls) subjects. We determined the fraction of SNPs displaying consistent directions of effect, assessed the significance of polygenic risk scores and estimated the genetic correlation of MDD across ancestries. Subsequent trans-ancestry meta-analyses combined SNP-level evidence of association. Sign tests and polygenic score profiling weakly support an overlap of SNP effects between East Asian and European populations. We estimated the trans-ancestry genetic correlation of lifetime MDD as 0.33; female-only and recurrent MDD yielded estimates of 0.40 and 0.41, respectively. Common variants downstream of GPHN achieved genome-wide significance by Bayesian trans-ancestry meta-analysis (rs9323497; log10 Bayes Factor=8.08) but failed to replicate in an independent European sample (P=0.911). Gene-set enrichment analyses indicate enrichment of genes involved in neuronal development and axonal trafficking. We successfully demonstrate a partially shared polygenic basis of MDD in East Asian and European populations. Taken together, these findings support a complex etiology for MDD and possible population differences in predisposing genetic factors, with important implications for future genetic studies. PMID:28350396

Bayesian Community Detection in the Space of Group-Level Functional Differences

PubMed Central

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.; Duncan, James S.

2017-01-01

We propose a unified Bayesian framework to detect both hyper- and hypo-active communities within whole-brain fMRI data. Specifically, our model identifies dense subgraphs that exhibit population-level differences in functional synchrony between a control and clinical group. We derive a variational EM algorithm to solve for the latent posterior distributions and parameter estimates, which subsequently inform us about the afflicted network topology. We demonstrate that our method provides valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying social dysfunction in autism, as verified by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database. In contrast, both univariate testing and community detection via recursive edge elimination fail to identify stable functional communities associated with the disorder. PMID:26955022

Bayesian Community Detection in the Space of Group-Level Functional Differences.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Archana; Yang, Daniel Y-J; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Duncan, James S

2016-08-01

We propose a unified Bayesian framework to detect both hyper- and hypo-active communities within whole-brain fMRI data. Specifically, our model identifies dense subgraphs that exhibit population-level differences in functional synchrony between a control and clinical group. We derive a variational EM algorithm to solve for the latent posterior distributions and parameter estimates, which subsequently inform us about the afflicted network topology. We demonstrate that our method provides valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying social dysfunction in autism, as verified by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database. In contrast, both univariate testing and community detection via recursive edge elimination fail to identify stable functional communities associated with the disorder.

Amyloid fibril formation by the chain B subunit of monellin occurs by a nucleation-dependent polymerization mechanism.

PubMed

Sabareesan, A T; Udgaonkar, Jayant B

2014-02-25

Proteins possessing very different structures, or even no structure, form amyloid fibrils that are very similar in internal structure. This suggests that the mechanisms by which amyloid fibrils form might be very similar, irrespective of whether the fibrils are associated with disease or with normal cellular function, or even if they have no physiological importance. In this context, it is important to have a model protein system whose amyloid fibril formation is robust in its reproducibility, which can reveal the fundamentals of the amyloid fibril reaction that may be applicable to all proteins. In this study, the aggregation mechanism of amyloid fibril formation by chain B of the heterodimeric protein monellin has been elucidated in detail. It is shown that the aggregation reaction meets all the stringent kinetic criteria of a homogeneous nucleation-dependent polymerization mechanism, which is valid over a wide range of protein concentrations. Quantitative analyses of the kinetic data using one approach based on features of the entire kinetic curve, and another based on only the initial rate of aggregation, indicate that the thermodynamic nucleus is a dimer. Spherical oligomers are observed by atomic force microscopy to form transiently early during fibril formation but are off-pathway to the direct fibril formation pathway. It is shown that amyloid fibril formation can be prevented by the addition of chain A of monellin at early stages of chain B aggregation: the two free chains combine to form native monellin, which leads to the dissociation of early aggregates.

Fifty-Year Trends in Atrial Fibrillation Prevalence, Incidence, Risk Factors, and Mortality in the Community

PubMed Central

Schnabel, Renate B.; Yin, Xiaoyan; PhilimonGona; Larson, Martin G.; Beiser, Alexa S.; McManus, David D.; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lubitz, Steven A.; Magnani, Jared W.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; SudhaSeshadri; Wolf, Philip A; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Levy, Daniel

2015-01-01

Summary Background Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. Methods We investigated trends in atrial fibrillation incidence, prevalence, and risk factors, and in stroke and mortality following its onset in Framingham Heart Study participants (n=9511) from 1958 to 2007. To accommodate sex differences in atrial fibrillation risk factors and disease manifestations, sex-stratified analyses were performed. Findings During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), there were 1,544 new-onset atrial fibrillation cases (46.8% women). We observed about a fourfold increase in the age-adjusted prevalence and more than a tripling in age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation (prevalence 20.4 versus 96.2 per 1000 person-years in men; 13.7 versus 49.4 in women; incidence rates in first versus last decade 3.7 versus 13.4 per 1000 person-years in men; 2.5 versus 8.6 in women, ptrend<0.0001). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by ECG during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence increased (12.6versus 25.7 per 1000 person-years in men; 8.1 versus 11.8 in women, ptrend<0.0001). The age-adjusted incidence increased, but did not achieve statistical significance. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 73.5% decline in stroke and a 25.4% decline in mortality following atrial fibrillation onset (ptrend=0.0001, ptrend=0.003, respectively). Interpretation Our data suggest that observed trends of increased incidence of atrial fibrillation in the community were partially due to enhanced surveillance. Stroke occurrence and mortality following atrial fibrillation onset declined over the decades, and prevalence increased approximately fourfold. The hazards for atrial fibrillation risk factors remained fairly constant. Our data indicate a need for measures to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programs, and risk factor-specific prevention. PMID:25960110

A Mediterranean diet improves HbA1c but not fasting blood glucose compared to alternative dietary strategies: a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Carter, P; Achana, F; Troughton, J; Gray, L J; Khunti, K; Davies, M J

2014-06-01

Overweight or obese individuals with type 2 diabetes are encouraged to lose weight for optimal glucose management, yet many find this difficult. Determining whether alterations in dietary patterns irrespective of weight loss can aid glucose control has not been fully investigated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis aiming to determine the effects of a Mediterranean diet compared to other dietary interventions on glycaemic control irrespective of weight loss. Electronic databases were searched for controlled trials that included a Mediterranean diet intervention. The interventions included all major components of the Mediterranean diet and were carried out in free-living individuals at high risk or diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Network meta-analysis compared all interventions with one another at the same time as maintaining randomisation. Analyses were conducted within a Bayesian framework. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, seven examined fasting blood glucose (n = 972), six examined fasting insulin (n = 1330) and three examined HbA1c (n = 487). None of the interventions were significantly better than the others in lowering glucose parameters. The Mediterranean diet reduced HbA1c significantly compared to usual care but not compared to the Palaeolithic diet. The effect of alterations in dietary practice irrespective of weight loss on glycaemic control cannot be concluded from the present review. The need for further research in this area is apparent because no firm conclusions about relative effectiveness of interventions could be drawn as a result of the paucity of the evidence. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Probiotics in Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy: Systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Fan; Feng, Juerong; Chen, Pengfei; Liu, Xiaoping; Ma, Minxing; Zhou, Rui; Chang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Li, Jin; Zhao, Qiu

2017-09-01

Several probiotics were effective in the eradication treatment for Helicobacter pylori (Hp), but their comparative efficacy was unknown. To compare the efficacy of different probiotics when supplemented in Hp eradication therapy. A comprehensive search was conducted to identify all relevant studies in multiple databases and previous meta-analyses. Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed to combine direct and indirect evidence and estimate the relative effects. One hundred and forty studies (44 English and 96 Chinese) were identified with a total of 20,215 patients, and more than 10 probiotic strategies were supplemented in Hp eradication therapy. The rates of eradication and adverse events were 84.1 and 14.4% in probiotic group, while 70.5 and 30.1% in the control group. In general, supplementary probiotics were effective in improving the efficacy of Hp eradication and decreasing the incidence of adverse events, despite of few ineffective subtypes. In triple eradication therapy, there was no significant difference among the effective probiotics, and combined probiotics did not show a better efficacy and tolerance than single use. In triple therapy of 7 days and 14 days, Lactobacillus acidopilus was a slightly better choice, while Saccharomyces boulardii was more applicable for 10-day triple therapy. Compared to placebo, most probiotic strategies were effective when supplemented in Hp eradication therapy. In triple eradication therapy, no probiotic showed a superior efficacy to the others. Compared to single use, combined probiotics could not improve the efficacy or tolerance significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Proton pump inhibitors for preventing non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug induced gastrointestinal toxicity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Yang, Man; He, Min; Zhao, Miao; Zou, Bing; Liu, Jun; Luo, Ling-Min; Li, Qiu-Lan; He, Jun-Hui; Lei, Ping-Guang

2017-06-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are recommended for preventing gastrointestinal lesions induced by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). We performed this study: (1) to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of PPIs, (2) to explore the association between effectiveness and potential influential factors, and (3) to investigate the comparative effect of different PPIs. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify randomized controlled trials comparing different classes of PPIs, or comparing PPIs with placebo, H 2 receptor antagonists or misoprostol in NSAIDs users. Both pairwise meta-analysis and Bayesian network meta-analysis were performed. Analyses were based on 12,532 participants from 31 trials. PPIs were significantly more effective than placebo in reducing ulcer complications (relative risk [RR] = 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20 to 0.42) and endoscopic peptic ulcers (RR = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.33), with no subgroup differences according to class of NSAIDs, ulcer risk, history of previous ulcer disease, Helicobacter pylori infection, or age. To prevent one ulcer complication, 10 high risk patients and 268 moderate risk patients need PPI therapy. Network meta-analysis indicated that the effectiveness of different PPIs in reducing ulcer complications and endoscopic peptic ulcers is generally similar. PPIs significantly reduced gastrointestinal adverse events and the related withdrawals compared to placebo; there is no difference in safety between different PPIs. PPIs are effective and safe in preventing peptic ulcers and complications in a wide spectrum of patients requiring NSAID therapy. There is no major difference in the comparative effectiveness and safety between different PPIs.

Clinical Implications of Ablation of Drivers for Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Baykaner, Tina; Rogers, Albert J; Meckler, Gabriela L; Zaman, Junaid; Navara, Rachita; Rodrigo, Miguel; Alhusseini, Mahmood; Kowalewski, Christopher A B; Viswanathan, Mohan N; Narayan, Sanjiv M; Clopton, Paul; Wang, Paul J; Heidenreich, Paul A

2018-05-01

The outcomes from pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for atrial fibrillation (AF) are suboptimal, but the benefits of additional lesion sets remain unproven. Recent studies propose ablation of AF drivers improves outcomes over PVI, yet with conflicting reports in the literature. We undertook a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to determine outcomes from ablation of AF drivers in addition to PVI or as a stand-alone procedure. Database search was done using the terms atrial fibrillation and ablation or catheter ablation and driver or rotor or focal impulse or FIRM (Focal Impulse and Rotor Modulation). We pooled data using random effects model and assessed heterogeneity with I 2 statistic. Seventeen studies met inclusion criteria, in a cohort size of 3294 patients. Adding AF driver ablation to PVI reported freedom from AF of 72.5% (confidence interval [CI], 62.1%-81.8%; P <0.01) and from all arrhythmias of 57.8% (CI, 47.5%-67.7%; P <0.01). AF driver ablation when added to PVI or as stand-alone procedure compared with controls produced an odds ratio of 3.1 (CI, 1.3-7.7; P =0.02) for freedom from AF and an odds ratio of 1.8 (CI, 1.2-2.7; P <0.01) for freedom from all arrhythmias in 4 controlled studies. AF termination rate was 40.5% (CI, 30.6%-50.9%) and predicted favorable outcome from ablation( P <0.05). In controlled studies, the addition of AF driver ablation to PVI supports the possible benefit of a combined approach of AF driver ablation and PVI in improving single-procedure freedom from all arrhythmias. However, most studies are uncontrolled and are limited by substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Large multicenter randomized trials are needed to precisely define the benefits of adding driver ablation to PVI. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Meta-analysis of CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation patients independent of anticoagulation.

PubMed

Zhu, Wen-Gen; Xiong, Qin-Mei; Hong, Kui

2015-02-01

Two validated scoring systems for predicting embolic risk, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, contribute to optimizing antithrombotic prescription practices in patients who have atrial fibrillation. However, data about anticoagulated patients are sparse. We compared CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, in terms of their predictive risk evaluation, in patients with atrial fibrillation who were and were not taking anticoagulants. We systematically searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Embase databases for studies of the comparative diagnostic performance of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. We identified 12 cohort studies for meta-analysis. With regard to the occurrence of cardiovascular events individually, patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 have a greater risk of stroke (risk ratio [RR]=5.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-6.88; P <0.00001) and thromboembolism (RR=5.96; 95% CI, 5.50-6.45; P <0.00001) (P diff=0.34) than do patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores <2, independent of anticoagulation therapy (RR=5.76; 95% CI, 5.23-6.35; P <0.00001 in anticoagulated patients; and RR=6.12; 95% CI, 5.40-6.93; P <0.00001 in patients not taking anticoagulants; P diff=0.45). The pooled RR estimates indicate an approximate 6-fold increase in the risk of endpoint events in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 (RR=5.90; 95% CI, 5.46-6.37; P <0.0001). These results clearly indicate the discriminative capacity of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke, thromboembolic events, or both, independent of optimal anticoagulation. The CHA2DS2-VASc score enables the identification of patients who are at genuinely high risk and can direct the selection of appropriate therapeutic approaches.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

PubMed

Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

2017-06-01

Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Management of Listeria monocytogenes in fermented sausages using the Food Safety Objective concept underpinned by stochastic modeling and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mataragas, M; Alessandria, V; Rantsiou, K; Cocolin, L

2015-08-01

In the present work, a demonstration is made on how the risk from the presence of Listeria monocytogenes in fermented sausages can be managed using the concept of Food Safety Objective (FSO) aided by stochastic modeling (Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulation) and meta-analysis. For this purpose, the ICMSF equation was used, which combines the initial level (H0) of the hazard and its subsequent reduction (ΣR) and/or increase (ΣI) along the production chain. Each element of the equation was described by a distribution to investigate the effect not only of the level of the hazard, but also the effect of the accompanying variability. The distribution of each element was determined by Bayesian modeling (H0) and meta-analysis (ΣR and ΣI). The output was a normal distribution N(-5.36, 2.56) (log cfu/g) from which the percentage of the non-conforming products, i.e. the fraction above the FSO of 2 log cfu/g, was estimated at 0.202%. Different control measures were examined such as lowering initial L. monocytogenes level and inclusion of an additional killing step along the process resulting in reduction of the non-conforming products from 0.195% to 0.003% based on the mean and/or square-root change of the normal distribution, and 0.001%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data

PubMed Central

Riley, R. D.; Price, M. J.; Jackson, D.; Wardle, M.; Gueyffier, F.; Wang, J.; Staessen, J. A.; White, I. R.

2016-01-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment–covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. PMID:26099484

Night shift work and breast cancer risk: what do the meta-analyses tell us?

PubMed

Pahwa, Manisha; Labrèche, France; Demers, Paul A

2018-05-22

Objectives This paper aims to compare results, assess the quality, and discuss the implications of recently published meta-analyses of night shift work and breast cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted for meta-analyses published from 2007-2017 that included at least one pooled effect size (ES) for breast cancer associated with any night shift work exposure metric and were accompanied by a systematic literature review. Pooled ES from each meta-analysis were ascertained with a focus on ever/never exposure associations. Assessments of heterogeneity and publication bias were also extracted. The AMSTAR 2 checklist was used to evaluate quality. Results Seven meta-analyses, published from 2013-2016, collectively included 30 cohort and case-control studies spanning 1996-2016. Five meta-analyses reported pooled ES for ever/never night shift work exposure; these ranged from 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.03, N=10 cohort studies) to 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.73, N=9 high quality studies). Estimates for duration, frequency, and cumulative night shift work exposure were scant and mostly not statistically significant. Meta-analyses of cohort, Asian, and more fully-adjusted studies generally resulted in lower pooled ES than case-control, European, American, or minimally-adjusted studies. Most reported statistically significant between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was not evident in any of the meta-analyses. Only one meta-analysis was strong in critical quality domains. Conclusions Fairly consistent elevated pooled ES were found for ever/never night shift work and breast cancer risk, but results for other shift work exposure metrics were inconclusive. Future evaluations of shift work should incorporate high quality meta-analyses that better appraise individual study quality.

Systematic review and meta-analysis in cardiac surgery: a primer.

PubMed

Yanagawa, Bobby; Tam, Derrick Y; Mazine, Amine; Tricco, Andrea C

2018-03-01

The purpose of this article is to review the strengths and weaknesses of systematic reviews and meta-analyses to inform our current understanding of cardiac surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis of a focused topic can provide a quantitative estimate for the effect of a treatment intervention or exposure. In cardiac surgery, observational studies and small, single-center prospective trials provide most of the clinical outcomes that form the evidence base for patient management and guideline recommendations. As such, meta-analyses can be particularly valuable in synthesizing the literature for a particular focused surgical question. Since the year 2000, there are over 800 meta-analysis-related publications in our field. There are some limitations to this technique, including clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity, among other challenges. Despite these caveats, results of meta-analyses have been useful in forming treatment recommendations or in providing guidance in the design of future clinical trials. There is a growing number of meta-analyses in the field of cardiac surgery. Knowledge translation via meta-analyses will continue to guide and inform cardiac surgical practice and our practice guidelines.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Reporting Quality of Herbal Medicine Research: The Road to Improvement.

PubMed

Naumann, Ken

2018-02-01

To quantify different aspects of the quality of reporting of herbal medicine clinical trials, to determine how that quality is affecting the conclusions of meta-analyses, and to target areas for improvement in future herbal medicine research reporting. The Electronic databases PubMed, Academic Search Premier, ScienceDirect, and Alt HealthWatch were searched for meta-analyses of herbal medicines in refereed journals and Cochrane Reviews in the years 2000-2004 and 2010-2014. The search was limited to meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials involving humans and published in English. Judgments and descriptions within the meta-analyses were used to report on risks of bias in the included clinical trials and the meta-analyses themselves. Out of 3264 citations, 9 journal-published meta-analyses were selected from 2000 to 2004, 116 from 2010 to 2014, and 44 Cochrane Reviews from 2010 to 2014. Across both time frames and categories of publication, <42% of the trials included in the meta-analyses described adequate randomization; <19% described concealment methods; <26% described double blinding; <29% described outcome assessment blinding, ≤53% discussed incomplete data, and <36% were nonselective in their reporting. Less than 54% of trials reported on adverse events and 64% of meta-analyses did not include a single trial with a low risk of bias. Taxonomic verification and chemical characterization of test products were infrequent in trials. Only 40% of meta-analyses considered publication bias and, of those that did, 90% found evidence for it. Cochrane Reviews were more likely than other sources to make negative conclusions of efficacy or to defer conclusions because of the absence of high quality trials. Meta-analyses of herbal medicines include a significant number of clinical trials that do not meet the recommended standards for clinical trial reporting. This quantitative assessment identified significant publication bias and other bias risks that may be due to inadequate trial design or incomplete reporting of outcomes. Suggested improvements to herbal medicine clinical trial reporting are discussed.

Meta-analyses on intra-aortic balloon pump in cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction may provide biased results.

PubMed

Acconcia, M C; Caretta, Q; Romeo, F; Borzi, M; Perrone, M A; Sergi, D; Chiarotti, F; Calabrese, C M; Sili Scavalli, A; Gaudio, C

2018-04-01

Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) is the device most commonly investigated in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Recently meta-analyses on this topic showed opposite results: some complied with the actual guideline recommendations, while others did not, due to the presence of bias. We investigated the reasons for the discrepancy among meta-analyses and strategies employed to avoid the potential source of bias. Scientific databases were searched for meta-analyses of IABP support in AMI complicated by CS. The presence of clinical diversity, methodological diversity and statistical heterogeneity were analyzed. When we found clinical or methodological diversity, we reanalyzed the data by comparing the patients selected for homogeneous groups. When the fixed effect model was employed despite the presence of statistical heterogeneity, the meta-analysis was repeated adopting the random effect model, with the same estimator used in the original meta-analysis. Twelve meta-analysis were selected. Six meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were inconclusive because underpowered to detect the IABP effect. Five included RCTs and observational studies (Obs) and one only Obs. Some meta-analyses on RCTs and Obs had biased results due to presence of clinical and/or methodological diversity. The reanalysis of data reallocated for homogeneous groups was no more in contrast with guidelines recommendations. Meta-analyses performed without controlling for clinical and/or methodological diversity, represent a confounding message against a good clinical practice. The reanalysis of data demonstrates the validity of the current guidelines recommendations in addressing clinical decision making in providing IABP support in AMI complicated by CS.

Effectiveness, safety and costs of thromboembolic prevention in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: phase I ESC-FA protocol study and baseline characteristics of a cohort from a primary care electronic database

PubMed Central

Vedia Urgell, Cristina; Roso-Llorach, Albert; Morros, Rosa; Capellà, Dolors; Castells, Xavier; Ferreira-González, Ignacio; Troncoso Mariño, Amelia; Diògene, Eduard; Elorza, Josep Mª; Casajuana, Marc; Bolíbar, Bonaventura; Violan, Concepció

2016-01-01

Purpose Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia. Its management aims to reduce symptoms and to prevent complications through rate and rhythm control, management of concomitant cardiac diseases and prevention of related complications, mainly stroke. The main objective of Effectiveness, Safety and Costs in Atrial Fibrillation (ESC-FA) study is to analyse the drugs used for the management of the disease in real-use conditions, particularly the antithrombotic agents for stroke prevention. The aim of this work is to present the study protocol of phase I of the ESC-FA study and the baseline characteristics of newly diagnosed patients with atrial fibrillation in Catalonia, Spain. Participants The data source is System for the Improvement of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database. The population included are all patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation diagnosis registered in the electronic health records during 2007–2012. Findings to date A total of 22 585 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation were included in the baseline description. Their mean age was 72.8 years and 51.6% were men. The most commonly prescribed antithrombotics were vitamin K antagonists (40.1% of patients) and platelet aggregation inhibitors (32.9%); 25.3% had not been prescribed antithrombotic treatment. Age, gender, comorbidities and co-medication at baseline were similar to those reported for previous studies. Future plans The next phase in the ESC-FA study will involve assessing the effectiveness and safety of antithrombotic treatments, analysing stroke events and bleeding episodes’ rates in our patients (rest of phase I), describing the current management of the disease and its costs in our setting, and assessing how the introduction of new oral anticoagulants changes the stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation. PMID:26823179

Methodological Quality Assessment of Meta-Analyses of Hyperthyroidism Treatment.

PubMed

Qin, Yahong; Yao, Liang; Shao, Feifei; Yang, Kehu; Tian, Limin

2018-01-01

Hyperthyroidism is a common condition that is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. A number of meta-analyses (MAs) have assessed the therapeutic measures for hyperthyroidism, including antithyroid drugs, surgery, and radioiodine, however, the methodological quality has not been evaluated. This study evaluated the methodological quality and summarized the evidence obtained from MAs of hyperthyroidism treatments for radioiodine, antithyroid drugs, and surgery. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database databases. Two investigators independently assessed the meta-analyses titles and abstracts for inclusion. Methodological quality was assessed using the validated AMSTAR (Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews) tool. A total of 26 MAs fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Based on the AMSTAR scores, the average methodological quality was 8.31, with large variability ranging from 4 to 11. The methodological quality of English meta-analyses was better than that of Chinese meta-analyses. Cochrane reviews had better methodological quality than non-Cochrane reviews due to better study selection and data extraction, the inclusion of unpublished studies, and better reporting of study characteristics. The authors did not report conflicts of interest in 53.8% meta-analyses, and 19.2% did not report the harmful effects of treatment. Publication bias was not assessed in 38.5% of meta-analyses, and 19.2% did not report the follow-up time. Large-scale assessment of methodological quality of meta-analyses of hyperthyroidism treatment highlighted methodological strengths and weaknesses. Consideration of scientific quality when formulating conclusions should be made explicit. Future meta-analyses should improve on reporting conflict of interest. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Heart rate and outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: A dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shang, Xiaoke; Lu, Rong; Liu, Mei; Xiao, Shuna; Dong, Nianguo

2017-10-01

Although elevated resting heart rate is related to poor outcomes in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction, the association in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains inconclusive. Therefore, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis to examine the prognostic role of heart rate in patients with HFpEF.We searched PubMed and Embase databases until April 2017 and manually reviewed the reference lists of relevant literatures. Random effect models were used to pool the study-specific hazard ratio (HR) of outcomes, including all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and HF hospitalization.Six studies with 7 reports were finally included, totaling 14,054 patients with HFpEF. The summary HR (95% confidence interval [CI]) for every 10 beats/minute increment in heart rate was 1.04 (1.02-1.06) for all-cause death, 1.06 (1.02-1.10) for cardiovascular death, and 1.05 (1.01-1.08) for HF hospitalization. Subgroup analyses indicated that these positive relationships were significant in patients with sinus rhythm but not in those with atrial fibrillation. There was also evidence for nonlinear relationship of heart rate with each of the outcomes (All P for nonlinearity < .05).Higher heart rate in sinus rhythm is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with HFpEF. Future trials are required to determine whether heart rate reduction may improve the prognosis of HFpEF.

Introduction to Bayesian statistical approaches to compositional analyses of transgenic crops 1. Model validation and setting the stage.

PubMed

Harrison, Jay M; Breeze, Matthew L; Harrigan, George G

2011-08-01

Statistical comparisons of compositional data generated on genetically modified (GM) crops and their near-isogenic conventional (non-GM) counterparts typically rely on classical significance testing. This manuscript presents an introduction to Bayesian methods for compositional analysis along with recommendations for model validation. The approach is illustrated using protein and fat data from two herbicide tolerant GM soybeans (MON87708 and MON87708×MON89788) and a conventional comparator grown in the US in 2008 and 2009. Guidelines recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in conducting Bayesian analyses of clinical studies on medical devices were followed. This study is the first Bayesian approach to GM and non-GM compositional comparisons. The evaluation presented here supports a conclusion that a Bayesian approach to analyzing compositional data can provide meaningful and interpretable results. We further describe the importance of method validation and approaches to model checking if Bayesian approaches to compositional data analysis are to be considered viable by scientists involved in GM research and regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing Critical Thinking about Reporting of Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Guo, Qing; Hopkins, Robert B.

2012-01-01

Graduate students in the health sciences who hope to become independent researchers must be able to write up their results at a standard suitable for submission to peer-reviewed journals. Bayesian analyses are still rare in the medical literature, and students are often unclear on what should be included in a manuscript. Whilst there are published…

Serum uric acid levels and multiple health outcomes: umbrella review of evidence from observational studies, randomised controlled trials, and Mendelian randomisation studies.

PubMed

Li, Xue; Meng, Xiangrui; Timofeeva, Maria; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Ioannidis, John PA; Campbell, Harry; Theodoratou, Evropi

2017-06-07

Objective  To map the diverse health outcomes associated with serum uric acid (SUA) levels. Design  Umbrella review. Data sources  Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and screening of citations and references. Eligibility criteria  Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that examined associations between SUA level and health outcomes, meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials that investigated health outcomes related to SUA lowering treatment, and Mendelian randomisation studies that explored the causal associations of SUA level with health outcomes. Results  57 articles reporting 15 systematic reviews and144 meta-analyses of observational studies (76 unique outcomes), 8 articles reporting 31 meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials (20 unique outcomes), and 36 articles reporting 107 Mendelian randomisation studies (56 unique outcomes) met the eligibility criteria. Across all three study types, 136 unique health outcomes were reported. 16 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of observational studies had P<10 -6 , 8 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials had P<0.001, and 4 unique outcomes in Mendelian randomisation studies had P<0.01. Large between study heterogeneity was common (80% and 45% in meta-analyses of observational studies and of randomised controlled trials, respectively). 42 (55%) meta-analyses of observational studies and 7 (35%) meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials showed evidence of small study effects or excess significance bias. No associations from meta-analyses of observational studies were classified as convincing; five associations were classified as highly suggestive (increased risk of heart failure, hypertension, impaired fasting glucose or diabetes, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease mortality with high SUA levels). Only one outcome from randomised controlled trials (decreased risk of nephrolithiasis recurrence with SUA lowering treatment) had P<0.001, a 95% prediction interval excluding the null, and no large heterogeneity or bias. Only one outcome from Mendelian randomisation studies (increased risk of gout with high SUA levels) presented convincing evidence. Hypertension and chronic kidney disease showed concordant evidence in meta-analyses of observational studies, and in some (but not all) meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials with respective intermediate or surrogate outcomes, but they were not statistically significant in Mendelian randomisation studies. Conclusion  Despite a few hundred systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and Mendelian randomisation studies exploring 136 unique health outcomes, convincing evidence of a clear role of SUA level only exists for gout and nephrolithiasis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

ScreenBEAM: a novel meta-analysis algorithm for functional genomics screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Functional genomics (FG) screens, using RNAi or CRISPR technology, have become a standard tool for systematic, genome-wide loss-of-function studies for therapeutic target discovery. As in many large-scale assays, however, off-target effects, variable reagents' potency and experimental noise must be accounted for appropriately control for false positives.

Risperidone or Aripiprazole in Children and Adolescents with Autism and/or Intellectual Disability: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Efficacy and Secondary Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, David; Raffin, Marie; Canitano, Roberto; Bodeau, Nicolas; Bonnot, Olivier; Perisse, Didier; Consoli, Angele; Laurent, Claudine

2013-01-01

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) induce frequent adverse effects in children and adolescents with each compound appearing to have a specific adverse effect profile. Aripiprazole and risperidone are FDA-approved medications for behavioral disturbances associated with autism and/or intellectual disabilities (ID) in children and adolescents.…

Bayesian network meta-analysis comparing five contemporary treatment strategies for newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukaemia

PubMed Central

Ren, Yong; Duan, Chongyang; Chen, Shangwu; Xu, Anlong

2016-01-01

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a curable subtype of acute myeloid leukemia. The optimum regimen for newly diagnosed APL remains inconclusive. In this Bayesian network meta-analysis, we compared the effectiveness of five regimens-arsenic trioxide (ATO) + all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), realgar-indigo naturalis formula (RIF) which contains arsenic tetrasulfide + ATRA, ATRA + anthracycline-based chemotherapy (CT), ATO alone and ATRA alone, based on fourteen randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which included 1407 newly diagnosed APL patients. According to the results, the ranking efficacy of the treatment, including early death and complete remission in the induction stage, was the following: 1. ATO/RIF + ATRA; 2. ATRA + CT; 3. ATO, and 4. ATRA. For long-term benefit, ATO/RIF + ATRA significantly improved overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio = 0.35, 95%CI 0.15–0.82, p = 0.02) and event-free survival (EFS) (hazard ratio = 0.32, 95%CI 0.16–0.61, p = 0.001) over ATRA + CT regimen for the low-to-intermediate-risk patients. Thus, ATO + ATRA and RIF + ATRA might be considered the optimum treatments for the newly diagnosed APL and should be recommended as the standard care for frontline therapy. PMID:27322078

Bayesian network meta-analysis comparing five contemporary treatment strategies for newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukaemia.

PubMed

Wu, Fenfang; Wu, Di; Ren, Yong; Duan, Chongyang; Chen, Shangwu; Xu, Anlong

2016-07-26

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a curable subtype of acute myeloid leukemia. The optimum regimen for newly diagnosed APL remains inconclusive. In this Bayesian network meta-analysis, we compared the effectiveness of five regimens-arsenic trioxide (ATO) + all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), realgar-indigo naturalis formula (RIF) which contains arsenic tetrasulfide + ATRA, ATRA + anthracycline-based chemotherapy (CT), ATO alone and ATRA alone, based on fourteen randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which included 1407 newly diagnosed APL patients. According to the results, the ranking efficacy of the treatment, including early death and complete remission in the induction stage, was the following: 1. ATO/RIF + ATRA; 2. ATRA + CT; 3. ATO, and 4. ATRA. For long-term benefit, ATO/RIF + ATRA significantly improved overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio = 0.35, 95%CI 0.15-0.82, p = 0.02) and event-free survival (EFS) (hazard ratio = 0.32, 95%CI 0.16-0.61, p = 0.001) over ATRA + CT regimen for the low-to-intermediate-risk patients. Thus, ATO + ATRA and RIF + ATRA might be considered the optimum treatments for the newly diagnosed APL and should be recommended as the standard care for frontline therapy.

Methodological quality of meta-analyses of single-case experimental studies.

PubMed

Jamshidi, Laleh; Heyvaert, Mieke; Declercq, Lies; Fernández-Castilla, Belén; Ferron, John M; Moeyaert, Mariola; Beretvas, S Natasha; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2017-12-28

Methodological rigor is a fundamental factor in the validity and credibility of the results of a meta-analysis. Following an increasing interest in single-case experimental design (SCED) meta-analyses, the current study investigates the methodological quality of SCED meta-analyses. We assessed the methodological quality of 178 SCED meta-analyses published between 1985 and 2015 through the modified Revised-Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (R-AMSTAR) checklist. The main finding of the current review is that the methodological quality of the SCED meta-analyses has increased over time, but is still low according to the R-AMSTAR checklist. A remarkable percentage of the studies (93.80% of the included SCED meta-analyses) did not even reach the midpoint score (22, on a scale of 0-44). The mean and median methodological quality scores were 15.57 and 16, respectively. Relatively high scores were observed for "providing the characteristics of the included studies" and "doing comprehensive literature search". The key areas of deficiency were "reporting an assessment of the likelihood of publication bias" and "using the methods appropriately to combine the findings of studies". Although the results of the current review reveal that the methodological quality of the SCED meta-analyses has increased over time, still more efforts are needed to improve their methodological quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonindependence and sensitivity analyses in ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses.

PubMed

Noble, Daniel W A; Lagisz, Malgorzata; O'dea, Rose E; Nakagawa, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Meta-analysis is an important tool for synthesizing research on a variety of topics in ecology and evolution, including molecular ecology, but can be susceptible to nonindependence. Nonindependence can affect two major interrelated components of a meta-analysis: (i) the calculation of effect size statistics and (ii) the estimation of overall meta-analytic estimates and their uncertainty. While some solutions to nonindependence exist at the statistical analysis stages, there is little advice on what to do when complex analyses are not possible, or when studies with nonindependent experimental designs exist in the data. Here we argue that exploring the effects of procedural decisions in a meta-analysis (e.g. inclusion of different quality data, choice of effect size) and statistical assumptions (e.g. assuming no phylogenetic covariance) using sensitivity analyses are extremely important in assessing the impact of nonindependence. Sensitivity analyses can provide greater confidence in results and highlight important limitations of empirical work (e.g. impact of study design on overall effects). Despite their importance, sensitivity analyses are seldom applied to problems of nonindependence. To encourage better practice for dealing with nonindependence in meta-analytic studies, we present accessible examples demonstrating the impact that ignoring nonindependence can have on meta-analytic estimates. We also provide pragmatic solutions for dealing with nonindependent study designs, and for analysing dependent effect sizes. Additionally, we offer reporting guidelines that will facilitate disclosure of the sources of nonindependence in meta-analyses, leading to greater transparency and more robust conclusions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses: part 6 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

Ressing, Meike; Blettner, Maria; Klug, Stefanie J

2009-07-01

Because of the rising number of scientific publications, it is important to have a means of jointly summarizing and assessing different studies on a single topic. Systematic literature reviews, meta-analyses of published data, and meta-analyses of individual data (pooled reanalyses) are now being published with increasing frequency. We here describe the essential features of these methods and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. This article is based on a selective literature search. The different types of review and meta-analysis are described, the methods used in each are outlined so that they can be evaluated, and a checklist is given for the assessment of reviews and meta-analyses of scientific articles. Systematic literature reviews provide an overview of the state of research on a given topic and enable an assessment of the quality of individual studies. They also allow the results of different studies to be evaluated together when these are inconsistent. Meta-analyses additionally allow calculation of pooled estimates of an effect. The different types of review and meta-analysis are discussed with examples from the literature on one particular topic. Systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses enable the research findings and treatment effects obtained in different individual studies to be summed up and evaluated.

Less is less: a systematic review of graph use in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Schild, Anne H E; Voracek, Martin

2013-09-01

Graphs are an essential part of scientific communication. Complex datasets, of which meta-analyses are textbook examples, benefit the most from visualization. Although a number of graph options for meta-analyses exist, the extent to which these are used was hitherto unclear. A systematic review on graph use in meta-analyses in three disciplines (medicine, psychology, and business) and nine journals was conducted. Interdisciplinary differences, which are mirrored in the respective journals, were revealed, that is, graph use correlates with external factors rather than methodological considerations. There was only limited variation in graph types (with forest plots as the most important representatives), and diagnostic plots were very rare. Although an increase in graph use over time could be observed, it is unlikely that this phenomenon is specific to meta-analyses. There is a gaping discrepancy between available graphic methods and their application in meta-analyses. This may be rooted in a number of factors, namely, (i) insufficient dissemination of new developments, (ii) unsatisfactory implementation in software packages, and (iii) minor attention on graphics in meta-analysis reporting guidelines. Using visualization methods to their full capacity is a further step in using meta-analysis to its full potential. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effect of iconicity of visual displays on statistical reasoning: evidence in favor of the null hypothesis.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Kostovičová, Lenka; Juanchich, Marie

2014-08-01

Knowing which properties of visual displays facilitate statistical reasoning bears practical and theoretical implications. Therefore, we studied the effect of one property of visual diplays - iconicity (i.e., the resemblance of a visual sign to its referent) - on Bayesian reasoning. Two main accounts of statistical reasoning predict different effect of iconicity on Bayesian reasoning. The ecological-rationality account predicts a positive iconicity effect, because more highly iconic signs resemble more individuated objects, which tap better into an evolutionary-designed frequency-coding mechanism that, in turn, facilitates Bayesian reasoning. The nested-sets account predicts a null iconicity effect, because iconicity does not affect the salience of a nested-sets structure-the factor facilitating Bayesian reasoning processed by a general reasoning mechanism. In two well-powered experiments (N = 577), we found no support for a positive iconicity effect across different iconicity levels that were manipulated in different visual displays (meta-analytical overall effect: log OR = -0.13, 95% CI [-0.53, 0.28]). A Bayes factor analysis provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis-the null iconicity effect. Thus, these findings corroborate the nested-sets rather than the ecological-rationality account of statistical reasoning.

[Meta-analyses of quarks, baryons and mesons--a "Cochrane Collaboration" in particle physics].

PubMed

Sauerland, Stefan; Sauerland, Thankmar; Antes, Gerd; Barnett, R Michael

2002-02-01

Within the last 20 years meta-analysis has become an important research technique in medicine for integrating the results of independent studies. Meta-analytical techniques, however, are much older. In particle physics for 50 years now the properties of huge numbers of particles have been assessed in meta-analyses. The Cochrane Collaboration's counterpart in physics is the Particle Data Group. This article compares methodological and organisational aspects of meta-analyses in medicine and physics. Several interesting parallels exist, especially with regard to methodology.

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Co-localisation of advanced glycation end products and D-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins in gelatinous drop-like corneal dystrophy.

PubMed

Kaji, Yuichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Takazawa, Yutaka; Fukayama, Masashi; Fujii, Noriko

2012-08-01

Gelatinous drop-like corneal dystrophy (GDLD), also known as familial subepithelial corneal amyloidosis, is an autosomal recessive disorder that causes progressive corneal opacity due to accumulation of amyloid fibrils in the corneal stroma. Genetic analyses have revealed that a mutation in membrane component chromosome 1 surface marker 1 gene is responsible for GDLD. However, the mechanism of amyloid formation in the corneal stroma remains unclear. The present study attempted to reveal the role of advanced glycation end products (AGE) and d-amino acids in amyloid formation in GDLD. Informed consent was obtained from five patients with GDLD, three patients with bullous keratopathy and three patients with interstitial keratitis and all the specimens were analysed. Localisation of amyloid fibrils was analysed using Congo-red and thioflavin T staining. In addition, the localisation of AGE (N(ε)-carboxy(methyl)-L-lysine, pyrraline and pentosidine) and D-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins, a major form of d-amino acid-containing proteins, was analysed immunohistochemically. In all GDLD specimens, strong immunoreactivity to AGE and D-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins was detected in the subepithelial amyloid-rich region. In contrast, amyloid fibrils, AGE, or D-amino acid-containing proteins were slightly detected in the corneal stroma of patients with bullous keratopathy and interstitial keratitis. Abnormally accumulated proteins rich in AGE and D-β-aspartic acid co-localise in the amyloid lesions in GDLD. These results indicate that non-enzymatic post-translational modifications of proteins, including AGE formation and isomerisation of aspartyl residues, will be the cause as well as the result of amyloid fibril formations in GDLD.

Co-localisation of advanced glycation end products and d-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins in gelatinous drop-like corneal dystrophy

PubMed Central

Oshika, Tetsuro; Takazawa, Yutaka; Fukayama, Masashi; Fujii, Noriko

2012-01-01

Purpose Gelatinous drop-like corneal dystrophy (GDLD), also known as familial subepithelial corneal amyloidosis, is an autosomal recessive disorder that causes progressive corneal opacity due to accumulation of amyloid fibrils in the corneal stroma. Genetic analyses have revealed that a mutation in membrane component chromosome 1 surface marker 1 gene is responsible for GDLD. However, the mechanism of amyloid formation in the corneal stroma remains unclear. The present study attempted to reveal the role of advanced glycation end products (AGE) and d-amino acids in amyloid formation in GDLD. Methods Informed consent was obtained from five patients with GDLD, three patients with bullous keratopathy and three patients with interstitial keratitis and all the specimens were analysed. Localisation of amyloid fibrils was analysed using Congo-red and thioflavin T staining. In addition, the localisation of AGE (Nɛ-carboxy(methyl)-l-lysine, pyrraline and pentosidine) and d-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins, a major form of d-amino acid-containing proteins, was analysed immunohistochemically. Results In all GDLD specimens, strong immunoreactivity to AGE and d-β-aspartic acid-containing proteins was detected in the subepithelial amyloid-rich region. In contrast, amyloid fibrils, AGE, or d-amino acid-containing proteins were slightly detected in the corneal stroma of patients with bullous keratopathy and interstitial keratitis. Conclusions Abnormally accumulated proteins rich in AGE and d-β-aspartic acid co-localise in the amyloid lesions in GDLD. These results indicate that non-enzymatic post-translational modifications of proteins, including AGE formation and isomerisation of aspartyl residues, will be the cause as well as the result of amyloid fibril formations in GDLD. PMID:22694960

Does the inclusion of grey literature influence estimates of intervention effectiveness reported in meta-analyses?

PubMed

McAuley, L; Pham, B; Tugwell, P; Moher, D

2000-10-07

The inclusion of only a subset of all available evidence in a meta-analysis may introduce biases and threaten its validity; this is particularly likely if the subset of included studies differ from those not included, which may be the case for published and grey literature (unpublished studies, with limited distribution). We set out to examine whether exclusion of grey literature, compared with its inclusion in meta-analysis, provides different estimates of the effectiveness of interventions assessed in randomised trials. From a random sample of 135 meta-analyses, we identified and retrieved 33 publications that included both grey and published primary studies. The 33 publications contributed 41 separate meta-analyses from several disease areas. General characteristics of the meta-analyses and associated studies and outcome data at the trial level were collected. We explored the effects of the inclusion of grey literature on the quantitative results using logistic-regression analyses. 33% of the meta-analyses were found to include some form of grey literature. The grey literature, when included, accounts for between 4.5% and 75% of the studies in a meta-analysis. On average, published work, compared with grey literature, yielded significantly larger estimates of the intervention effect by 15% (ratio of odds ratios=1.15 [95% CI 1.04-1.28]). Excluding abstracts from the analysis further compounded the exaggeration (1.33 [1.10-1.60]). The exclusion of grey literature from meta-analyses can lead to exaggerated estimates of intervention effectiveness. In general, meta-analysts should attempt to identify, retrieve, and include all reports, grey and published, that meet predefined inclusion criteria.

Is intramedullary fixation of displaced midshaft clavicle fracture superior to plate fixation? Evidence from a systematic review of discordant meta-analyses.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Lin, Yongsheng; Wang, Zhihong; Cao, Junming; Yang, Yipeng; Xia, Hehuan; Zhang, Yingze

2017-07-01

An increasing number of meta-analyses comparing intramedullary fixation (IF) with plate fixation (PF) for displaced midshaft clavicle fracture have been reported, but the inconsistent results obtained might confuse decision-making. We systematically reviewed discordant meta-analyses for assisting the decision-maker in interpreting and selecting amongst discordant meta-analyses and providing surgical recommendations for displaced midshaft clavicle fracture according to currently best available evidence. Meta-analyses on IF and PF for displaced midshaft clavicle fracture were identified by searching PubMed, Emabase and the Cochrane Library. A review of meta-analysis quality and data extraction was individually conducted by two reviewers. The meta-analysis providing the best available evidence was identified using the Jadad decision algorithm. Nine studies were included, five of which were of Level-II evidence and four of which were of Level-III evidence. These meta-analyses scored from 6 to 10 according to the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews instrument. With respect to the Jadad decision algorithm, the best meta-analysis was chosen depending upon publication characteristics and methodology of primary studies, language restrictions, and whether data on individual patients were analysed. A meta-analysis incorporating more randomised controlled trials was eventually selected. The best available evidence indicated that the differences between IF and PF were not significant in terms of shoulder function or the rate of treatment failure. However, IF significantly decreased the operative time and the rate of non-operative complications, especially the rate of infection. Based on the best available evidence, IF may be superior to PF for treating displaced midshaft clavicle fracture. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Surgical Versus Conservative Intervention for Acute Achilles Tendon Rupture: A PRISMA-Compliant Systematic Review of Overlapping Meta-Analyses.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Tang, Hao; He, Qianyun; Wei, Qiang; Tong, Dake; Wang, Chuangfeng; Wu, Dajiang; Wang, Guangchao; Zhang, Xin; Ding, Wenbin; Li, Di; Ding, Chen; Liu, Kang; Ji, Fang

2015-11-01

Although many meta-analyses comparing surgical intervention with conservative treatment have been conducted for acute Achilles tendon rupture, discordant conclusions are shown. This study systematically reviewed the overlapping meta-analyses relating to surgical versus conservative intervention of acute Achilles tendon rupture to assist decision makers select among conflicting meta-analyses, and to offer intervention recommendations based on the currently best evidence.Multiple databases were comprehensively searched for meta-analyses comparing surgical with conservative treatment of acute Achilles tendon rupture. Meta-analyses only comprising randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included. Two authors independently evaluated the meta-analysis quality and extracted data. The Jadad decision algorithm was applied to ascertain which meta-analysis offered the best evidence.A total of 9 meta-analyses were included. Only RCTs were determined as Level-II evidence. The scores of Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) ranged from 5 to 10 (median 7). A high-quality meta-analysis with more RCTs was selected according to the Jadad decision algorithm. This study found that when functional rehabilitation was used, conservative intervention was equal to surgical treatment regarding the incidence of rerupture, range of motion, calf circumference, and functional outcomes, while reducing the incidence of other complications. Where functional rehabilitation was not performed, conservative intervention could significantly increase rerupture rate.Conservative intervention may be preferred for acute Achilles tendon rupture at centers offering functional rehabilitation, because it shows a similar rerupture rate with a lower risk of other complications when compared with surgical treatment. However, surgical treatment should be considered at centers without functional rehabilitation as this can reduce the incidence of rerupture.

Model-driven meta-analyses for informing health care: a diabetes meta-analysis as an exemplar.

PubMed

Brown, Sharon A; Becker, Betsy Jane; García, Alexandra A; Brown, Adama; Ramírez, Gilbert

2015-04-01

A relatively novel type of meta-analysis, a model-driven meta-analysis, involves the quantitative synthesis of descriptive, correlational data and is useful for identifying key predictors of health outcomes and informing clinical guidelines. Few such meta-analyses have been conducted and thus, large bodies of research remain unsynthesized and uninterpreted for application in health care. We describe the unique challenges of conducting a model-driven meta-analysis, focusing primarily on issues related to locating a sample of published and unpublished primary studies, extracting and verifying descriptive and correlational data, and conducting analyses. A current meta-analysis of the research on predictors of key health outcomes in diabetes is used to illustrate our main points. © The Author(s) 2014.

MODEL-DRIVEN META-ANALYSES FOR INFORMING HEALTH CARE: A DIABETES META-ANALYSIS AS AN EXEMPLAR

PubMed Central

Brown, Sharon A.; Becker, Betsy Jane; García, Alexandra A.; Brown, Adama; Ramírez, Gilbert

2015-01-01

A relatively novel type of meta-analysis, a model-driven meta-analysis, involves the quantitative synthesis of descriptive, correlational data and is useful for identifying key predictors of health outcomes and informing clinical guidelines. Few such meta-analyses have been conducted and thus, large bodies of research remain unsynthesized and uninterpreted for application in health care. We describe the unique challenges of conducting a model-driven meta-analysis, focusing primarily on issues related to locating a sample of published and unpublished primary studies, extracting and verifying descriptive and correlational data, and conducting analyses. A current meta-analysis of the research on predictors of key health outcomes in diabetes is used to illustrate our main points. PMID:25142707

A Bayesian Approach for Sensor Optimisation in Impact Identification

PubMed Central

Mallardo, Vincenzo; Sharif Khodaei, Zahra; Aliabadi, Ferri M. H.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach for optimizing the position of sensors aimed at impact identification in composite structures under operational conditions. The uncertainty in the sensor data has been represented by statistical distributions of the recorded signals. An optimisation strategy based on the genetic algorithm is proposed to find the best sensor combination aimed at locating impacts on composite structures. A Bayesian-based objective function is adopted in the optimisation procedure as an indicator of the performance of meta-models developed for different sensor combinations to locate various impact events. To represent a real structure under operational load and to increase the reliability of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system, the probability of malfunctioning sensors is included in the optimisation. The reliability and the robustness of the procedure is tested with experimental and numerical examples. Finally, the proposed optimisation algorithm is applied to a composite stiffened panel for both the uniform and non-uniform probability of impact occurrence. PMID:28774064

N-terminal Domains Elicit Formation of Functional Pmel17 Amyloid Fibrils*

PubMed Central

Watt, Brenda; van Niel, Guillaume; Fowler, Douglas M.; Hurbain, Ilse; Luk, Kelvin C.; Stayrook, Steven E.; Lemmon, Mark A.; Raposo, Graça; Shorter, James; Kelly, Jeffery W.; Marks, Michael S.

2009-01-01

Pmel17 is a transmembrane protein that mediates the early steps in the formation of melanosomes, the subcellular organelles of melanocytes in which melanin pigments are synthesized and stored. In melanosome precursor organelles, proteolytic fragments of Pmel17 form insoluble, amyloid-like fibrils upon which melanins are deposited during melanosome maturation. The mechanism(s) by which Pmel17 becomes competent to form amyloid are not fully understood. To better understand how amyloid formation is regulated, we have defined the domains within Pmel17 that promote fibril formation in vitro. Using purified recombinant fragments of Pmel17, we show that two regions, an N-terminal domain of unknown structure and a downstream domain with homology to a polycystic kidney disease-1 repeat, efficiently form amyloid in vitro. Analyses of fibrils formed in melanocytes confirm that the polycystic kidney disease-1 domain forms at least part of the physiological amyloid core. Interestingly, this same domain is also required for the intracellular trafficking of Pmel17 to multivesicular compartments within which fibrils begin to form. Although a domain of imperfect repeats (RPT) is required for fibril formation in vivo and is a component of fibrils in melanosomes, RPT is not necessary for fibril formation in vitro and in isolation is unable to adopt an amyloid fold in a physiologically relevant time frame. These data define the structural core of Pmel17 amyloid, imply that the RPT domain plays a regulatory role in timing amyloid conversion, and suggest that fibril formation might be physically linked with multivesicular body sorting. PMID:19840945

Methods to systematically review and meta-analyse observational studies: a systematic scoping review of recommendations.

PubMed

Mueller, Monika; D'Addario, Maddalena; Egger, Matthias; Cevallos, Myriam; Dekkers, Olaf; Mugglin, Catrina; Scott, Pippa

2018-05-21

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies are frequently performed, but no widely accepted guidance is available at present. We performed a systematic scoping review of published methodological recommendations on how to systematically review and meta-analyse observational studies. We searched online databases and websites and contacted experts in the field to locate potentially eligible articles. We included articles that provided any type of recommendation on how to conduct systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. We extracted and summarised recommendations on pre-defined key items: protocol development, research question, search strategy, study eligibility, data extraction, dealing with different study designs, risk of bias assessment, publication bias, heterogeneity, statistical analysis. We summarised recommendations by key item, identifying areas of agreement and disagreement as well as areas where recommendations were missing or scarce. The searches identified 2461 articles of which 93 were eligible. Many recommendations for reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies were transferred from guidance developed for reviews and meta-analyses of RCTs. Although there was substantial agreement in some methodological areas there was also considerable disagreement on how evidence synthesis of observational studies should be conducted. Conflicting recommendations were seen on topics such as the inclusion of different study designs in systematic reviews and meta-analyses, the use of quality scales to assess the risk of bias, and the choice of model (e.g. fixed vs. random effects) for meta-analysis. There is a need for sound methodological guidance on how to conduct systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies, which critically considers areas in which there are conflicting recommendations.

Catecholamine-mediated arrhythmias in acute myocardial infarction. Experimental evidence and role of beta-adrenoceptor blockade.

PubMed

Opie, L H; Lubbe, W F

1979-11-24

Ventricular fibrillation is a major mechanism of sudden death. The cellular link between catecholamine activity and the development of serious ventricular arrhythmias may be in the formation of cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). Cyclic AMP and agents promoting cAMP accumulation allow development of slow responses which, especially in the presence of regional ischaemia, could develop into ventricular fibrillation. The role of beta-antagonist agents in the therapy of acute myocardial infarction is analysed in relation to the hypothesis linking cAMP and ventricular fibrillation. Reasons for the limited effectiveness of anti-arrhythmic therapy with beta-antagonist agents are given.

Exercise improves depressive symptoms in older adults: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Catalan-Matamoros, Daniel; Gomez-Conesa, Antonia; Stubbs, Brendon; Vancampfort, Davy

2016-10-30

Late-life depression is a growing public health concern. Exercise may be of added value but the literature remains equivocal. We conducted a systematic overview of meta-analyses and an exploratory pooled analysis of previous meta-analyses to determine the effect of exercise on depression in older adults. Two independent researchers searched Pubmed, CINAHL, Cochrane Plus, PsycArticles, and PsycInfo for meta-analyses on exercise in late-life depression. Methodological quality was assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) Instrument. We pooled effect sizes from previous meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials to determine the effect of exercise on depression in older adults. The systematic review yielded 3 meta-analyses. In total, 16 unique cohorts of 1487 participants were included. The quality of the three included meta-analyses was considered as "moderate" according to AMSTAR scores. No serious adverse events were reported. Compared to controls (n=583), those exercising (n=541) significantly reduced depressive symptoms. Our umbrella review indicates that exercise is safe and efficacious in reducing depressive symptoms in older people. Since exercise has many other known health benefits, it should be considered as a core intervention in the multidisciplinary treatment of older adults experiencing depression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

2016-05-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In comparison to other studies, we found that systematic reviews in dermatology were less likely to evaluate for publication bias. Evaluating and reporting the likelihood of publication bias should be standard practice in systematic reviews when appropriate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economics of atrial fibrillation: a time for review and prioritization.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A

2012-08-01

Stroke associated with atrial fibrillation may occur in up to one third of people who experience an ischemic event, and results in greater stroke severity and poorer health outcomes. The ageing population in developed and developing countries will lead to an increase in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation in society. Detecting people who have atrial fibrillation and ensuring optimal prevention management is essential for reducing the burden of stroke worldwide. There is evidence that use of anticoagulants is inadequate in primary and secondary prevention of stroke. New anticoagulants that have fewer side effects and population screening tools are available. However, there is little information available about the cost-effectiveness of these new options for atrial fibrillation detection and stroke prevention management over current practice. Since resources for spending in health are limited, it is essential that formal economic analyses are undertaken to ensure there are informed and evidence-based decisions on where to best invest stroke prevention resources. It is essential that renewed efforts in the area of atrial fibrillation and options for stroke prevention are undertaken within the public health research community. © 2012 The Author. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

A meta-analysis of comparative outcomes following cervical arthroplasty or anterior cervical fusion: results from 4 prospective multicenter randomized clinical trials and up to 1226 patients.

PubMed

McAfee, Paul C; Reah, Chris; Gilder, Kye; Eisermann, Lukas; Cunningham, Bryan

2012-05-15

Meta-analysis of 4 prospective randomized controlled Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) clinical trials. To maximize the information available from 4 IDE studies by analyzing the combined outcomes of cervical arthroplasty versus fusion at 24-month follow-up. To date, 4 randomized clinical trials have been completed in the United States under FDA IDE protocols to study cervical arthroplasty. Each trial reported arthroplasty to be at least as successful as fusion controls based on noninferiority trial designs. However, sample sizes in any given trial may not be sufficient to demonstrate superiority of treatment effect. Meta-analysis enables pooling of results from comparable trials, which may lead to more precise and statistically significant estimates of treatment effect. Four cervical arthroplasty randomized clinical trials with comparable enrollment criteria and outcome measures were conducted independently by 3 separate sponsors to study the following devices: Bryan, Prestige, ProDisc-C, and PCM cervical disc replacements. A total of 1608 patients were treated across 98 investigative sites. Data were available for 1352 treated patients, of which 1226 were evaluable at 24 months. Assessments included clinical success definitions based on neck disability index, maintenance or improvement of neurological status, subsequent surgery or intervention at the index level (survivorship), and a composite score comprising these as well as serious device-related adverse events. Trial endpoint comparisons were made at 24 months postoperatively. For each endpoint, a random-effects meta-analysis was performed to compare the success rates of cervical arthroplasty with anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Also, supportive frequentist and bayesian analyses were performed. The pooled primary overall success results indicated a statistically significant treatment effect favoring arthroplasty compared with ACDF. Overall success was achieved by 77.6% of the arthroplasty patients and by 70.8% of the ACDF patients (pooled odds ratio [OR]: 0.699, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.539-0.908, P = 0.007). The results of the individual subcomponent meta-analyses, all of which favored arthroplasty, were neck disability index success (OR: 0.786, 95% CI: 0.589-1.050, P = 0.103), neurological status (OR: 0.552, 95% CI: 0.364-0.835, P = 0.005), and survivorship (OR: 0.510, 95% CI: 0.275-0.946, P = 0.033). Only the survivorship endpoint suggested low heterogeneity. These findings suggest that cervical arthroplasty is superior to ACDF in overall success, neurological success, and survivorship outcomes at 24 months postoperatively.

Design of biomimetic fibrillar interfaces: 2. Mechanics of enhanced adhesion.

PubMed Central

Hui, C-Y; Glassmaker, N. J.; Tang, T.; Jagota, A.

2004-01-01

This study addresses the strength and toughness of generic fibrillar structures. We show that the stress sigmac required to pull a fibril out of adhesive contact with a substrate has the form sigma(c) = sigma(0)Phi(chi). In this equation, sigma(0) is the interfacial strength, Phi(chi) is a dimensionless function satisfying 0 > 1, but is flaw insensitive for chi < 1. The important parameter chi also controls the stability of a homogeneously deformed non-fibrillar (flat) interface. Using these results, we show that the work to fail a unit area of fibrillar surface can be much higher than the intrinsic work of adhesion for a flat interface of the same material. In addition, we show that cross-sectional fibril dimensions control the pull-off force, which increases with decreasing fibril radius. Finally, an increase in fibril length is shown to increase the work necessary to separate a fibrillar interface. Besides our calculations involving a single fibril, we study the concept of equal load sharing (ELS) for a perfect interface containing many fibrils. We obtain the practical work of adhesion for an idealized fibrillated interface under equal load sharing. We then analyse the peeling of a fibrillar surface from a rigid substrate and establish a criterion for ELS. PMID:16849151

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

Safety and efficacy of dual vs. triple antithrombotic therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation following percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Golwala, Harsh B; Cannon, Christopher P; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Doros, Gheorghe; Qamar, Arman; Ellis, Stephen G; Oldgren, Jonas; Ten Berg, Jurrien M; Kimura, Takeshi; Hohnloser, Stefan H; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bhatt, Deepak L

2018-05-14

Of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), approximately 10% undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We studied the safety and efficacy of dual vs. triple antithrombotic therapy (DAT vs. TAT) in this population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted using PubMed, Embase, EBSCO, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Web of Science, and relevant meeting abstracts for Phase 3, randomized trials that compared DAT vs. TAT in patients with AF following PCI. Four trials including 5317 patients were included, of whom 3039 (57%) received DAT. Compared with the TAT arm, Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major or minor bleeding showed a reduction by 47% in the DAT arm [4.3% vs. 9.0%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.53, 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.36-0.85, I2 = 42.9%]. In addition, there was no difference in the trial-defined major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (10.4% vs. 10.0%, HR 0.85, 95% CrI 0.48-1.29, I2 = 58.4%), or in individual outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, or stroke between the two arms. Compared with TAT, DAT shows a reduction in TIMI major or minor bleeding by 47% with comparable outcomes of MACE. Our findings support the concept that DAT may be a better option than TAT in many patients with AF following PCI.

Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors prevent the recurrence of atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Han, Min; Zhang, Yong; Sun, Shujuan; Wang, Zhongsu; Wang, Jiangrong; Xie, Xinxing; Gao, Mei; Yin, Xiangcui; Hou, Yinglong

2013-10-01

This study was designed to assess whether angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) could prevent the recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF). A systemic literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register till 2012 was performed to identify randomized controlled trials involving the prevention of recurrence of AF with renin-angiotensin system blockade therapy. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed. Publication bias was checked through funnel plot and Egger's test. Twenty-one randomized controlled trials including 13,184 patients with AF were identified. Overall, the recurrence of AF was significantly reduced in patients using ACEI/ARBs [odds ratio (OR), 0.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.32-0.56; P < 0.00001], especially both in irbesartan subgroup (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.21-0.68; P = 0.001) and in patients receiving antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.29-0.48; P < 0.00001), and there was no significant difference between ACEIs and ARBs (ACEIs: OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.31-0.57 and ARBs: OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.31-0.57). Moreover, it was found that the benefits of ACEI/ARBs revealed positive correlation to systolic blood pressure (regression coefficient: -0.0700257, P = 0.000) in no-AAD users. ACEI/ARBs are effective on the secondary prevention of AF, especially in patients receiving AAD and suffering from hypertension.

Detection of atrial fibrillation after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kishore, Amit; Vail, Andy; Majid, Arshad; Dawson, Jesse; Lees, Kennedy R; Tyrrell, Pippa J; Smith, Craig J

2014-02-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) confers a high risk of recurrent stroke, although detection methods and definitions of paroxysmal AF during screening vary. We therefore undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the frequency of newly detected AF using noninvasive or invasive cardiac monitoring after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Prospective observational studies or randomized controlled trials of patients with ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or both, who underwent any cardiac monitoring for a minimum of 12 hours, were included after electronic searches of multiple databases. The primary outcome was detection of any new AF during the monitoring period. We prespecified subgroup analysis of selected (prescreened or cryptogenic) versus unselected patients and according to duration of monitoring. A total of 32 studies were analyzed. The overall detection rate of any AF was 11.5% (95% confidence interval, 8.9%-14.3%), although the timing, duration, method of monitoring, and reporting of diagnostic criteria used for paroxysmal AF varied. Detection rates were higher in selected (13.4%; 95% confidence interval, 9.0%-18.4%) than in unselected patients (6.2%; 95% confidence interval, 4.4%-8.3%). There was substantial heterogeneity even within specified subgroups. Detection of AF was highly variable, and the review was limited by small sample sizes and marked heterogeneity. Further studies are required to inform patient selection, optimal timing, methods, and duration of monitoring for detection of AF/paroxysmal AF.

Constraints on the nuclear equation of state from nuclear masses and radii in a Thomas-Fermi meta-modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, D.; Gulminelli, F.; Raduta, Ad. R.; Margueron, J.

2017-12-01

The question of correlations among empirical equation of state (EoS) parameters constrained by nuclear observables is addressed in a Thomas-Fermi meta-modeling approach. A recently proposed meta-modeling for the nuclear EoS in nuclear matter is augmented with a single finite size term to produce a minimal unified EoS functional able to describe the smooth part of the nuclear ground state properties. This meta-model can reproduce the predictions of a large variety of models, and interpolate continuously between them. An analytical approximation to the full Thomas-Fermi integrals is further proposed giving a fully analytical meta-model for nuclear masses. The parameter space is sampled and filtered through the constraint of nuclear mass reproduction with Bayesian statistical tools. We show that this simple analytical meta-modeling has a predictive power on masses, radii, and skins comparable to full Hartree-Fock or extended Thomas-Fermi calculations with realistic energy functionals. The covariance analysis on the posterior distribution shows that no physical correlation is present between the different EoS parameters. Concerning nuclear observables, a strong correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy and the neutron skin is observed, in agreement with previous studies.

Stuttering, Induced Fluency, and Natural Fluency: A Hierarchical Series of Activation Likelihood Estimation Meta-Analyses

PubMed Central

Budde, Kristin S.; Barron, Daniel S.; Fox, Peter T.

2015-01-01

Developmental stuttering is a speech disorder most likely due to a heritable form of developmental dysmyelination impairing the function of the speech-motor system. Speech-induced brain-activation patterns in persons who stutter (PWS) are anomalous in various ways; the consistency of these aberrant patterns is a matter of ongoing debate. Here, we present a hierarchical series of coordinate-based meta-analyses addressing this issue. Two tiers of meta-analyses were performed on a 17-paper dataset (202 PWS; 167 fluent controls). Four large-scale (top-tier) meta-analyses were performed, two for each subject group (PWS and controls). These analyses robustly confirmed the regional effects previously postulated as “neural signatures of stuttering” (Brown 2005) and extended this designation to additional regions. Two smaller-scale (lower-tier) meta-analyses refined the interpretation of the large-scale analyses: 1) a between-group contrast targeting differences between PWS and controls (stuttering trait); and 2) a within-group contrast (PWS only) of stuttering with induced fluency (stuttering state). PMID:25463820

Mega-Analysis of School Psychology Blueprint for Training and Practice Domains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Matthew K.; Kanive, Rebecca; Zaslofsky, Anne F.; Parker, David C.

2013-01-01

Meta-analytic research is an effective method for synthesizing existing research and for informing practice and policy. Hattie (2009) suggested that meta-analytic procedures could be employed to existing meta-analyses to create a mega-analysis. The current mega-analysis examined a sample of 47 meta-analyses according to the "School…

A Tutorial on Conducting Meta-Analyses of Clinical Outcome Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robey, Randall R.; Dalebout, Susan D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this tutorial is to enhance the familiarity and accessibility of meta-analyses in the domains of audiology and speech-language pathology for investigating questions of treatment efficacy and treatment effectiveness. Steps to conducting a meta-analysis are explained and an example of meta-analysis using published data is included.…

From pre-registration to publication: a non-technical primer for conducting a meta-analysis to synthesize correlational data

PubMed Central

Quintana, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis synthesizes a body of research investigating a common research question. Outcomes from meta-analyses provide a more objective and transparent summary of a research area than traditional narrative reviews. Moreover, they are often used to support research grant applications, guide clinical practice, and direct health policy. The aim of this article is to provide a practical and non-technical guide for psychological scientists that outlines the steps involved in planning and performing a meta-analysis of correlational datasets. I provide a supplementary R script to demonstrate each analytical step described in the paper, which is readily adaptable for researchers to use for their analyses. While the worked example is the analysis of a correlational dataset, the general meta-analytic process described in this paper is applicable for all types of effect sizes. I also emphasize the importance of meta-analysis protocols and pre-registration to improve transparency and help avoid unintended duplication. An improved understanding this tool will not only help scientists to conduct their own meta-analyses but also improve their evaluation of published meta-analyses. PMID:26500598

From pre-registration to publication: a non-technical primer for conducting a meta-analysis to synthesize correlational data.

PubMed

Quintana, Daniel S

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis synthesizes a body of research investigating a common research question. Outcomes from meta-analyses provide a more objective and transparent summary of a research area than traditional narrative reviews. Moreover, they are often used to support research grant applications, guide clinical practice, and direct health policy. The aim of this article is to provide a practical and non-technical guide for psychological scientists that outlines the steps involved in planning and performing a meta-analysis of correlational datasets. I provide a supplementary R script to demonstrate each analytical step described in the paper, which is readily adaptable for researchers to use for their analyses. While the worked example is the analysis of a correlational dataset, the general meta-analytic process described in this paper is applicable for all types of effect sizes. I also emphasize the importance of meta-analysis protocols and pre-registration to improve transparency and help avoid unintended duplication. An improved understanding this tool will not only help scientists to conduct their own meta-analyses but also improve their evaluation of published meta-analyses.

Diagnostic accuracy of clinical illness for bovine respiratory disease (BRD) diagnosis in beef cattle placed in feedlots: A systematic literature review and hierarchical Bayesian latent-class meta-analysis.

PubMed

Timsit, E; Dendukuri, N; Schiller, I; Buczinski, S

2016-12-01

Diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in beef cattle placed in feedlots is typically based on clinical illness (CI) detected by pen-checkers. Unfortunately, the accuracy of this diagnostic approach (namely, sensitivity [Se] and specificity [Sp]) remains poorly understood, in part due to the absence of a reference test for ante-mortem diagnosis of BRD. Our objective was to pool available estimates of CI's diagnostic accuracy for BRD diagnosis in feedlot beef cattle while adjusting for the inaccuracy in the reference test. The presence of lung lesions (LU) at slaughter was used as the reference test. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify research articles comparing CI detected by pen-checkers during the feeding period to LU at slaughter. A hierarchical Bayesian latent-class meta-analysis was used to model test accuracy. This approach accounted for imperfections of both tests as well as the within and between study variability in the accuracy of CI. Furthermore, it also predicted the Se CI and Sp CI for future studies. Conditional independence between CI and LU was assumed, as these two tests are not based on similar biological principles. Seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Estimated pooled Se CI and Sp CI were 0.27 (95% Bayesian credible interval: 0.12-0.65) and 0.92 (0.72-0.98), respectively, whereas estimated pooled Se LU and Sp LU were 0.91 (0.82-0.99) and 0.67 (0.64-0.79). Predicted Se CI and Sp CI for future studies were 0.27 (0.01-0.96) and 0.92 (0.14-1.00), respectively. The wide credible intervals around predicted Se CI and Sp CI estimates indicated considerable heterogeneity among studies, which suggests that pooled Se CI and Sp CI are not generalizable to individual studies. In conclusion, CI appeared to have poor Se but high Sp for BRD diagnosis in feedlots. Furthermore, considerable heterogeneity among studies highlighted an urgent need to standardize BRD diagnosis in feedlots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Domain Definition and Search Techniques in Meta-Analyses of L2 Research (or Why 18 Meta-Analyses of Feedback Have Different Results)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plonsky, Luke; Brown, Dan

2015-01-01

Applied linguists have turned increasingly in recent years to meta-analysis as the preferred means of synthesizing quantitative research. The first step in the meta-analytic process involves defining a domain of interest. Despite its apparent simplicity, this step involves a great deal of subjectivity on the part of the meta-analyst. This article…

What we have learned about minimized extracorporeal circulation versus conventional extracorporeal circulation: an updated meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Yanhua; Gong, Bing; Yuan, Xin; Zheng, Zhe; Wang, Guyan; Chen, Guo; Zhou, Chenghui; Wang, Wei; Ji, Bingyang

2015-08-01

The benefits of minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) compared with conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) are still in debate. PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched until November 10, 2014. After quality assessment, we chose a fixed-effects model when the trials showed low heterogeneity, otherwise a random-effects model was used. We performed univariate meta-regression and sensitivity analysis to search for the potential sources of heterogeneity. Cumulative meta-analysis was performed to access the evolution of outcome over time. 41 RCTs enrolling 3744 patients were included after independent article review by 2 authors. MECC significantly reduced atrial fibrillation (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.89; P < 0.001; I2 = 0%), and myocardial infarction (RR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.71; P = 0.001; I2 = 0%). In addition, the results regarding chest tube drainage, transfusion rate, blood loss, red blood cell transfusion volume, and platelet count favored MECC as well. MECC diminished morbidity of cardiovascular complications postoperatively, conserved blood cells, and reduced allogeneic blood transfusion.

The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism

PubMed Central

Biondi, Bernadette; Bartalena, Luigi; Cooper, David S.; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Laurberg, Peter; Kahaly, George J.

2015-01-01

Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper) is caused by Graves' disease, autonomously functioning thyroid nodules and multinodular goitre. Its diagnosis is based on a persistently subnormal serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level with free thyroid hormone levels within their respective reference intervals. In 2014 the European Thyroid Association Executive Committee, given the controversies regarding the treatment of Endo SHyper, formed a task force to develop clinical practice guidelines based on the principles of evidence-based medicine. The task force recognized that recent meta-analyses, including those based on large prospective cohort studies, indicate that SHyper is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease mortality, incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, fractures and excess mortality in patients with serum TSH levels <0.1 mIU/l (grade 2 SHyper). Therefore, despite the absence of randomized prospective trials, there is evidence that treatment is indicated in patients older than 65 years with grade 2 SHyper to potentially avoid these serious cardiovascular events, fractures and the risk of progression to overt hyperthyroidism. Treatment could be considered in patients older than 65 years with TSH levels 0.1-0.39 mIU/l (grade 1 SHyper) because of their increased risk of atrial fibrillation, and might also be reasonable in younger (<65 years) symptomatic patients with grade 2 SHyper because of the risk of progression, especially in the presence of symptoms and/or underlying risk factors or co-morbidity. Finally, the task force concluded that there are no data to support treating SHyper in younger asymptomatic patients with grade 1 SHyper. These patients should be followed without treatment due to the low risk of progression to overt hyperthyroidism and the weaker evidence for adverse health outcomes. PMID:26558232

Atrial ectopy predicts late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after pulmonary vein isolation.

PubMed

Gang, Uffe J O; Nalliah, Chrishan J; Lim, Toon Wei; Thiagalingam, Aravinda; Kovoor, Pramesh; Ross, David L; Thomas, Stuart P

2015-06-01

Late recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after radiofrequency ablation remains significant. Asymptomatic recurrence poses a difficult clinical problem as it is associated with an equally increased risk of stroke and death compared with symptomatic AF events. Meta-analyses reveal that no single preablation patient characteristic efficiently predicts these AF recurrences. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of premature atrial complex (PAC) occurrence with regard to the risk of late AF recurrence after radiofrequency ablation. The study cohort consisted of 124 patients with 7-day Holter recordings at 6 months post radiofrequency ablation for AF. No patients had AF recurrence before this time. Patients were followed-up every 6 months. Holter-detected PACs were defined as any supraventricular complexes occurring >30% earlier than expected. During a median follow-up of 4.2 years (first quartile to third quartile [Q1-Q3]=1.6-4.5), 32 patients (26%) had late recurrences of AF at a median of 462 days (Q1-Q3=319-1026) post radiofrequency ablation. The number of PACs per 24 hours was 248 (Q1-Q3=62-1026) in patients with and 77 (Q1-Q3=24-448) in patients without recurrence of AF (P=0.02). Multivariate analysis of the risk of late AF recurrence found ≥142 PACs per 24 hours to have a hazard ratio 2.84 (confidence interval, 1.26-6.43), P=0.01. This study showed that occurrence of ≥142 PACs per day at 6 months after PVI was independently associated with a significantly increased risk of late AF recurrence. These results could have important clinical implications for the design of post-PVI follow-up. URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au. Unique identifier: ACRTN12606000467538. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

A meta-analysis of phase III randomized controlled trials with novel oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation: comparisons between direct thrombin inhibitors vs. factor Xa inhibitors and different dosing regimens.

PubMed

Providência, Rui; Grove, Erik Lerkevang; Husted, Steen; Barra, Sérgio; Boveda, Serge; Morais, João

2014-12-01

Previous studies evaluating the ability of novel oral anticoagulants (NOAC) to prevent thromboembolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) have identified differences between the efficacy and safety of the drugs tested. Whether these differences reflect differences in direct thrombin or Xa inhibition, different dosing regimens or specific aspects of each agent or trial has not yet been explored. A search was performed on MEDLINE, EMBASE and COCHRANE, and ongoing studies were tracked on clinicaltrials.gov. Phase III randomized controlled trials of direct thrombin inhibitors (DTI) and factor Xa inhibitors (FXaI) vs. warfarin in patients with AF were eligible. Data were pooled using random-effects, according to the Mantel-Haenszel model. Sensitivity analyses were performed on DTI, FXaI, once-daily and twice-daily regimens. Seven studies were pooled, including a total of 80,290 patients. Both DTI and FXaI outperformed warfarin regarding stroke or systemic embolism, intracranial bleeding, total and cardiovascular mortality. No significant differences were found between DTI and FXaI or between once-daily and twice-daily regimens. Some drugs performed worse than warfarin regarding some secondary endpoints, including: edoxaban 30 mg bid on ischaemic stroke, dabigatran on acute myocardial infarction, dabigatran 150 mg bid and rivaroxaban 20mgod on gastrointestinal bleeding. Our pooled data do not support the hypothesis of a significant class-effect of DTI or FXaI, nor the benefit of once-daily vs. twice-daily dosing in the setting of AF, reinforcing that the choice of NOAC should be adapted to the specific patient and focused on the agent itself, rather than the pharmacological class or dosing regimen.

Identification of 64 Novel Genetic Loci Provides an Expanded View on the Genetic Architecture of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

van der Harst, Pim; Verweij, Niek

2018-02-02

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a complex phenotype driven by genetic and environmental factors. Ninety-seven genetic risk loci have been identified to date, but the identification of additional susceptibility loci might be important to enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of CAD. To expand the number of genome-wide significant loci, catalog functional insights, and enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of CAD. We performed a genome-wide association study in 34 541 CAD cases and 261 984 controls of UK Biobank resource followed by replication in 88 192 cases and 162 544 controls from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. We identified 75 loci that replicated and were genome-wide significant ( P <5×10 -8 ) in meta-analysis, 13 of which had not been reported previously. Next, to further identify novel loci, we identified all promising ( P <0.0001) loci in the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data and performed reciprocal replication and meta-analyses with UK Biobank. This led to the identification of 21 additional novel loci reaching genome-wide significance ( P <5×10 -8 ) in meta-analysis. Finally, we performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of all available data revealing 30 additional novel loci ( P <5×10 -8 ) without further replication. The increase in sample size by UK Biobank raised the number of reconstituted gene sets from 4.2% to 13.9% of all gene sets to be involved in CAD. For the 64 novel loci, 155 candidate causal genes were prioritized, many without an obvious connection to CAD. Fine mapping of the 161 CAD loci generated lists of credible sets of single causal variants and genes for functional follow-up. Genetic risk variants of CAD were linked to development of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and death. We identified 64 novel genetic risk loci for CAD and performed fine mapping of all 161 risk loci to obtain a credible set of causal variants. The large expansion of reconstituted gene sets argues in favor of an expanded omnigenic model view on the genetic architecture of CAD. © 2017 The Authors.

Obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea and arrhythmias: new updates.

PubMed

Vizzardi, Enrico; Sciatti, Edoardo; Bonadei, Ivano; D'Aloia, Antonio; Curnis, Antonio; Metra, Marco

2017-07-01

Obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (OSAH) is a prevalent condition characterized by repetitive pharyngeal collapse during sleep, leading to hypoxemia, hypercapnia, and persistent inspiratory efforts against an occluded airway until arousal. Several studies demonstrated that OSAH exerts acute and chronic effects on the cardiovascular system. Thus, although being a respiratory problem, the most important consequences of OSAH are cardiovascular, among which there are arrhythmias. The purpose of this review is to systematically analyse what has been recently published about the relationship between OSAH and every cardiac arrhythmia separately. We searched Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane Collaboration databases for 'OSAHS arrhythmias', 'OSAH arrhythmias' and 'OSA arrhythmias'. We analyse 1298 articles and meta-analyses, excluding already edited reviews. Arrhythmias, especially of ventricular origin, are frequent in OSAH. Ventricular premature beats, couplets and ventricular tachycardia runs are even more frequent in patients suffering from heart failure. They may be due to left heart remodelling, overwork and ischaemia and can explain at least some sudden deaths occurring between midnight and 6 a.m. Sinus pauses and atrioventricular blocks are increased according to the severity of the disturbance and may be reduced by continuous positive airway pressure therapy, preventing pace-maker implantation. Finally, atrial fibrillation, resistance against antiarrhythmic drugs and recurrences after surgical procedures are strongly related to OSAH. Arrhythmias are frequent in OSAH. Treatment of OSAH may reduce some of them. An implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and continuous positive airway pressure should be considered in some patients.

Understanding differences in results from literature-based and individual patient meta-analyses: an example from meta-analyses of observational data.

PubMed

Poppe, Katrina K; Doughty, Robert N; Yu, Cheuk-Man; Quintana, Miguel; Møller, Jacob E; Klein, Allan L; Gamble, Greg D; Dini, Frank L; Whalley, Gillian A

2011-04-14

Meta-analyses are increasingly used to summarise observational data however a literature meta-analysis (LMA) may give different results to the corresponding individual patient meta-analysis (IPMA). This study compares the published results of equivalent LMAs and IPMAs, highlighting factors that can affect the results and therefore impact on clinical interpretation of meta-analyses. Univariate results from published meta-analyses of prospective observational outcome data were compared, as were the number of studies, patients and length of follow-up. The absolute difference in survival was calculated. The association between severe diastolic dysfunction (RFP) and death post acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and in chronic heart failure (HF) were used as clinical examples. The IPMA hazard ratio was lower that the LMA odds ratio: AMI hazard ratio 2.67 (95% confidence interval 2.23 to 3.20), odds ratio 4.10 (3.38 to 4.99); HF hazard ratio 2.42 (2.06 to 2.83), odds ratio 4.36 (3.60 to 5.04). The IPMAs contained most of the studies from the LMAs as well as additional unpublished data, and a longer length of follow-up was available in the IPMAs (AMI 3.7 vs 2.6 yr, HF 4.0 vs 1.5 yr). Restricting analysis to the same studies in both the LMA and IPMA resulted in a similar difference in effect sizes between methods to those found in the published analyses. The result of a meta-analysis is affected by whether study level or individual patient data have been used, and the variant of analysis that is required. Awareness and consideration of these factors is important for clinical interpretation of meta-analyses. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodological Standards for Meta-Analyses and Qualitative Systematic Reviews of Cardiac Prevention and Treatment Studies: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Rao, Goutham; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco; Boyd, Jack; D'Amico, Frank; Durant, Nefertiti H; Hlatky, Mark A; Howard, George; Kirley, Katherine; Masi, Christopher; Powell-Wiley, Tiffany M; Solomonides, Anthony E; West, Colin P; Wessel, Jennifer

2017-09-05

Meta-analyses are becoming increasingly popular, especially in the fields of cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment. They are often considered to be a reliable source of evidence for making healthcare decisions. Unfortunately, problems among meta-analyses such as the misapplication and misinterpretation of statistical methods and tests are long-standing and widespread. The purposes of this statement are to review key steps in the development of a meta-analysis and to provide recommendations that will be useful for carrying out meta-analyses and for readers and journal editors, who must interpret the findings and gauge methodological quality. To make the statement practical and accessible, detailed descriptions of statistical methods have been omitted. Based on a survey of cardiovascular meta-analyses, published literature on methodology, expert consultation, and consensus among the writing group, key recommendations are provided. Recommendations reinforce several current practices, including protocol registration; comprehensive search strategies; methods for data extraction and abstraction; methods for identifying, measuring, and dealing with heterogeneity; and statistical methods for pooling results. Other practices should be discontinued, including the use of levels of evidence and evidence hierarchies to gauge the value and impact of different study designs (including meta-analyses) and the use of structured tools to assess the quality of studies to be included in a meta-analysis. We also recommend choosing a pooling model for conventional meta-analyses (fixed effect or random effects) on the basis of clinical and methodological similarities among studies to be included, rather than the results of a test for statistical heterogeneity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Esophagectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis.

PubMed

Asti, E; Sozzi, M; Bonitta, G; Bernardi, D; Bonavina, L

2018-04-10

Patients with esophageal carcinoma and concomitant liver cirrhosis carry a high operative risk and may be denied esophagectomy. We performed a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis to investigate postoperative outcomes in these patients. Studies reporting outcomes after esophagectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis were searched in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus until June 2017, matching the terms "liver cirrhosis", "esophageal neoplasm" and/or "esophageal surgery". Extracted data included study characteristics, demographic and clinical patient characteristics, type of surgical procedure, and postoperative outcomes. A systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis were performed. Five observational, retrospective and single-arm studies with a total of 157 patients were included. The main cause of death was liver failure followed by pneumonia/sepsis and anastomotic leak. Ascites and pleural effusion were the most frequent postoperative complications (pooled rates 36% and 34%, respectively). The pooled morbidity rate was 74% (95% HPD=46-81%) while the pooled mortality was 18% (95% HPD=17-27%). Study heterogeneity (τ2) was low, ranging from 0.046 to 0.080. An incidental diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was reported in 15.6% of patients in one series. Five-year survival was similar between cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients but was statistically significantly higher in patients with MELD score<10. Sound scientific evidence with regard to efficacy and outcomes of esophagectomy in patients with concomitant liver cirrhosis is lacking. There is a need to properly select these frail patients to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality rates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A review of apixaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: insights from ARISTOTLE.

PubMed

Hess, Connie N; Al-Khatib, Sana M; Granger, Christopher B; Lopes, Renato

2013-09-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with significant mortality and morbidity, and stroke represents the most-feared complication. Consequently, AF treatment has focused on thromboprophylaxis, with warfarin as the mainstay of therapy. However, concerns over ease of use and safety have limited its use. Three novel oral anticoagulants have been approved for use in stroke prevention in AF based on randomized data: 1) dabigatran, studied in Randomized Evaluation of Long-term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY); 2) rivaroxaban, studied in Rivaroxaban Once-daily, Oral, Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF); and 3) apixaban, studied in Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE). In this review, we focus on apixaban and discuss subgroup analyses that have been performed in the three trials comparing novel oral anticoagulants with warfarin. We conclude with recommendations regarding further investigations.

Colchicine for primary prevention of atrial fibrillation after open-heart surgery: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lennerz, Carsten; Barman, Manish; Tantawy, Mahmoud; Sopher, Mark; Whittaker, Peter

2017-12-15

Atrial fibrillation occurs frequently after open-heart surgery. It is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, longer hospital stays, and increased healthcare costs. Prophylactic administration of colchicine may mitigate post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF). We searched PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov and CENTRAL databases to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that; (1) compared prophylactic use of colchicine to placebo, or usual care, in patients with sinus rhythm who underwent elective open-heart surgery and (2) reported POAF-incidence. We excluded trials focused on incidence of atrial fibrillation after percutaneous interventions or colchicine treatment of diagnosed pericarditis or post-pericardiotomy-syndrome. A random-effects model was used to pool data for POAF-incidence as the primary outcome and for drug-related adverse effects, major adverse events (death and stroke), and hospital length-of-stay as secondary outcomes. We included five RCTs (1412 patients). Colchicine treatment reduced POAF-events by 30% versus placebo or usual care (18% vs. 27%, risk ratio (RR) 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57 to 0.84, p=0.0002). Adverse drug-related effects, especially gastrointestinal intolerance, increased with colchicine; (21% vs. 8.2%, RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.62 to 3.93, p<0.0001). However, major adverse events were unchanged (3.2% vs. 3.2%, RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.95, p=0.92). Length-of-stay decreased by 1.2days with colchicine (95% CI -1.89 to -0.44, p=0.002). Colchicine demonstrated superior efficacy versus usual care for prevention of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery. Moreover, colchicine treatment was associated with shorter hospital stays. These benefits outweigh increased risk of adverse drug-related effects; although further work is needed to minimize gastrointestinal effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitogenomic Meta-Analysis Identifies Two Phases of Migration in the History of Eastern Eurasian Sheep.

PubMed

Lv, Feng-Hua; Peng, Wei-Feng; Yang, Ji; Zhao, Yong-Xin; Li, Wen-Rong; Liu, Ming-Jun; Ma, Yue-Hui; Zhao, Qian-Jun; Yang, Guang-Li; Wang, Feng; Li, Jin-Quan; Liu, Yong-Gang; Shen, Zhi-Qiang; Zhao, Sheng-Guo; Hehua, Eer; Gorkhali, Neena A; Farhad Vahidi, S M; Muladno, Muhammad; Naqvi, Arifa N; Tabell, Jonna; Iso-Touru, Terhi; Bruford, Michael W; Kantanen, Juha; Han, Jian-Lin; Li, Meng-Hua

2015-10-01

Despite much attention, history of sheep (Ovis aries) evolution, including its dating, demographic trajectory and geographic spread, remains controversial. To address these questions, we generated 45 complete and 875 partial mitogenomic sequences, and performed a meta-analysis of these and published ovine mitochondrial DNA sequences (n = 3,229) across Eurasia. We inferred that O. orientalis and O. musimon share the most recent female ancestor with O. aries at approximately 0.790 Ma (95% CI: 0.637-0.934 Ma) during the Middle Pleistocene, substantially predating the domestication event (∼8-11 ka). By reconstructing historical variations in effective population size, we found evidence of a rapid population increase approximately 20-60 ka, immediately before the Last Glacial Maximum. Analyses of lineage expansions showed two sheep migratory waves at approximately 4.5-6.8 ka (lineages A and B: ∼6.4-6.8 ka; C: ∼4.5 ka) across eastern Eurasia, which could have been influenced by prehistoric West-East commercial trade and deliberate mating of domestic and wild sheep, respectively. A continent-scale examination of lineage diversity and approximate Bayesian computation analyses indicated that the Mongolian Plateau region was a secondary center of dispersal, acting as a "transportation hub" in eastern Eurasia: Sheep from the Middle Eastern domestication center were inferred to have migrated through the Caucasus and Central Asia, and arrived in North and Southwest China (lineages A, B, and C) and the Indian subcontinent (lineages B and C) through this region. Our results provide new insights into sheep domestication, particularly with respect to origins and migrations to and from eastern Eurasia. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Mitogenomic Meta-Analysis Identifies Two Phases of Migration in the History of Eastern Eurasian Sheep

PubMed Central

Lv, Feng-Hua; Peng, Wei-Feng; Yang, Ji; Zhao, Yong-Xin; Li, Wen-Rong; Liu, Ming-Jun; Ma, Yue-Hui; Zhao, Qian-Jun; Yang, Guang-Li; Wang, Feng; Li, Jin-Quan; Liu, Yong-Gang; Shen, Zhi-Qiang; Zhao, Sheng-Guo; Hehua, EEr; Gorkhali, Neena A.; Farhad Vahidi, S. M.; Muladno, Muhammad; Naqvi, Arifa N.; Tabell, Jonna; Iso-Touru, Terhi; Bruford, Michael W.; Kantanen, Juha; Han, Jian-Lin; Li, Meng-Hua

2015-01-01

Despite much attention, history of sheep (Ovis aries) evolution, including its dating, demographic trajectory and geographic spread, remains controversial. To address these questions, we generated 45 complete and 875 partial mitogenomic sequences, and performed a meta-analysis of these and published ovine mitochondrial DNA sequences (n = 3,229) across Eurasia. We inferred that O. orientalis and O. musimon share the most recent female ancestor with O. aries at approximately 0.790 Ma (95% CI: 0.637–0.934 Ma) during the Middle Pleistocene, substantially predating the domestication event (∼8–11 ka). By reconstructing historical variations in effective population size, we found evidence of a rapid population increase approximately 20–60 ka, immediately before the Last Glacial Maximum. Analyses of lineage expansions showed two sheep migratory waves at approximately 4.5–6.8 ka (lineages A and B: ∼6.4–6.8 ka; C: ∼4.5 ka) across eastern Eurasia, which could have been influenced by prehistoric West–East commercial trade and deliberate mating of domestic and wild sheep, respectively. A continent-scale examination of lineage diversity and approximate Bayesian computation analyses indicated that the Mongolian Plateau region was a secondary center of dispersal, acting as a “transportation hub” in eastern Eurasia: Sheep from the Middle Eastern domestication center were inferred to have migrated through the Caucasus and Central Asia, and arrived in North and Southwest China (lineages A, B, and C) and the Indian subcontinent (lineages B and C) through this region. Our results provide new insights into sheep domestication, particularly with respect to origins and migrations to and from eastern Eurasia. PMID:26085518

Meta-Analysis of Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants in Atrial Fibrillation With Focus on Apixaban.

PubMed

Bai, Ying; Shi, Xu-Bo; Ma, Chang-Sheng; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-11-01

We performed a meta-analysis of data on the effectiveness and safety of apixaban compared with other oral anticoagulants (warfarin or rivaroxaban or dabigatran or edoxaban) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) in different settings of randomized controlled trials, real-world studies, and radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Thirty studies were searched in PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases reporting comparative effectiveness and safety of apixaban with warfarin (n = 23), rivaroxaban (n = 12), dabigatran (n = 13), or edoxaban (n = 2) for stroke prevention in AF. In real-world estimates, apixaban was similar to warfarin for the prevention of stroke or systematic thromboembolism (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.14, I 2  = 82.9%, N = 7), and safer than warfarin in the risks of major bleeding (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.70, I 2  = 18.7%, N = 9) in patients with AF. The risk of stroke or thromboembolism with apixaban was similar to rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban in the settings of real-world studies and RFA. Major bleeding with apixaban was generally lower than rivaroxaban (relative risks 0.45, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.53, I 2  = 0%, N = 5) and similar to dabigatran in real-world studies (relative risks 1.44, 95% CI 0.33 to 6.30, I 2  = 97.7%, N = 5), but similar to rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban in RFA. In conclusion, our meta-analysis provides a comprehensive estimate of the effectiveness and safety of apixaban compared with other oral anticoagulants (warfarin, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban) in patients with AF in different settings of randomized controlled trial, real-world studies, and RFA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

"Assessing the methodological quality of systematic reviews in radiation oncology: A systematic review".

PubMed

Hasan, Haroon; Muhammed, Taaha; Yu, Jennifer; Taguchi, Kelsi; Samargandi, Osama A; Howard, A Fuchsia; Lo, Andrea C; Olson, Robert; Goddard, Karen

2017-10-01

The objective of our study was to evaluate the methodological quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses in Radiation Oncology. A systematic literature search was conducted for all eligible systematic reviews and meta-analyses in Radiation Oncology from 1966 to 2015. Methodological characteristics were abstracted from all works that satisfied the inclusion criteria and quality was assessed using the critical appraisal tool, AMSTAR. Regression analyses were performed to determine factors associated with a higher score of quality. Following exclusion based on a priori criteria, 410 studies (157 systematic reviews and 253 meta-analyses) satisfied the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses were found to be of fair to good quality while systematic reviews were found to be of less than fair quality. Factors associated with higher scores of quality in the multivariable analysis were including primary studies consisting of randomized control trials, performing a meta-analysis, and applying a recommended guideline related to establishing a systematic review protocol and/or reporting. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses may introduce a high risk of bias if applied to inform decision-making based on AMSTAR. We recommend that decision-makers in Radiation Oncology scrutinize the methodological quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses prior to assessing their utility to inform evidence-based medicine and researchers adhere to methodological standards outlined in validated guidelines when embarking on a systematic review. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of intervention effects in split-mouth and parallel-arm randomized controlled trials: a meta-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Split-mouth randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are popular in oral health research. Meta-analyses frequently include trials of both split-mouth and parallel-arm designs to derive combined intervention effects. However, carry-over effects may induce bias in split- mouth RCTs. We aimed to assess whether intervention effect estimates differ between split- mouth and parallel-arm RCTs investigating the same questions. Methods We performed a meta-epidemiological study. We systematically reviewed meta- analyses including both split-mouth and parallel-arm RCTs with binary or continuous outcomes published up to February 2013. Two independent authors selected studies and extracted data. We used a two-step approach to quantify the differences between split-mouth and parallel-arm RCTs: for each meta-analysis. First, we derived ratios of odds ratios (ROR) for dichotomous data and differences in standardized mean differences (∆SMD) for continuous data; second, we pooled RORs or ∆SMDs across meta-analyses by random-effects meta-analysis models. Results We selected 18 systematic reviews, for 15 meta-analyses with binary outcomes (28 split-mouth and 28 parallel-arm RCTs) and 19 meta-analyses with continuous outcomes (28 split-mouth and 28 parallel-arm RCTs). Effect estimates did not differ between split-mouth and parallel-arm RCTs (mean ROR, 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.52–1.80; mean ∆SMD, 0.08, -0.14–0.30). Conclusions Our study did not provide sufficient evidence for a difference in intervention effect estimates derived from split-mouth and parallel-arm RCTs. Authors should consider including split-mouth RCTs in their meta-analyses with suitable and appropriate analysis. PMID:24886043

Comparison of Estimates between Cohort and Case-Control Studies in Meta-Analyses of Therapeutic Interventions: A Meta-Epidemiological Study.

PubMed

Lanza, Amy; Ravaud, Philippe; Riveros, Carolina; Dechartres, Agnes

2016-01-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used for assessing therapeutic interventions. Case-control studies are generally considered to have greater risk of bias than cohort studies, but we lack evidence of differences in effect estimates between the 2 study types. We aimed to compare estimates between cohort and case-control studies in meta-analyses of observational studies of therapeutic interventions by using a meta-epidemiological study. We used a random sample of meta-analyses of therapeutic interventions published in 2013 that included both cohort and case-control studies assessing a binary outcome. For each meta-analysis, the ratio of estimates (RE) was calculated by comparing the estimate in case-control studies to that in cohort studies. Then, we used random-effects meta-analysis to estimate a combined RE across meta-analyses. An RE < 1 indicated that case-control studies yielded larger estimates than cohort studies. The final analysis included 23 meta-analyses: 138 cohort and 133 case-control studies. Treatment effect estimates did not significantly differ between case-control and cohort studies (combined RE 0.97 [95% CI 0.86-1.09]). Heterogeneity was low, with between-meta-analysis variance τ2 = 0.0049. Estimates did not differ between case-control and prospective or retrospective cohort studies (RE = 1.05 [95% CI 0.96-1.15] and RE = 0.99 [95% CI, 0.83-1.19], respectively). Sensitivity analysis of studies reporting adjusted estimates also revealed no significant difference (RE = 1.03 [95% CI 0.91-1.16]). Heterogeneity was also low for these analyses. We found no significant difference in treatment effect estimates between case-control and cohort studies assessing therapeutic interventions.

Comparing the clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation receiving dual antiplatelet therapy and patients receiving an addition of an anticoagulant after coronary stent implantation: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Nabin; Bundhun, Pravesh Kumar; Yan, He

2016-12-01

Data regarding the clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and an anticoagulant in addition to DAPT (DAPT + vitamin K antagonist [VKA]) after coronary stent implantation are still controversial. Therefore, in order to solve this issue, we aim to compare the adverse clinical outcomes in AF patients receiving DAPT and DAPT + VKA after percutaneous coronary intervention and stenting (PCI-S). Observational studies comparing the adverse clinical outcomes such as major bleeding, major adverse cardiovascular events, stroke, myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality, and stent thrombosis (ST) in AF patients receiving DAPT + VKA therapy, and DAPT after PCI-S have been searched from Medline, EMBASE, and PubMed databases. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to express the pooled effect on discontinuous variables, and the pooled analyses were performed with RevMan 5.3. Eighteen studies consisting of a total of 20,456 patients with AF (7203 patients received DAPT + VKA and 13,253 patients received DAPT after PCI-S) were included in this meta-analysis. At a mean follow-up period of 15 months, the risk of major bleeding was significantly higher in DAPT + VKA group, with OR 0.62 (95% CI 0.50-0.77, P < 0.0001). There was no significant differences in myocardial infarction and major adverse cardiovascular event between DAPT + VKA and DAPT, with OR 1.27 (95% CI 0.92-1.77, P = 0.15) and OR 1.17 (95% CI 0.99-1.39, P = 0.07), respectively. However, the ST, stroke, and all-cause mortality were significantly lower in the DAPT + VKA group, with OR 1.98 (95% CI 1.03-3.81, P = 0.04), 1.59 (95% CI 1.08-2.34, P = 0.02), and 1.41 (95% CI 1.03-1.94, P = 0.03), respectively. At a mean follow-up period of 15 months, DAPT + VKA was associated with significantly lower risk of stroke, ST, and all-cause mortality in AF patients after PCI-S compared with DAPT group. However, the risk of major bleeding was significantly higher in the DAPT + VKA group.

Mid-Term Results of Surgical Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation in Valvular Heart Disease Assesed by Speckle Tracking Echocardiography

PubMed Central

Lorenzo, Natalia; Mendez, Irene; Taibo, Mikel; Martinis, Gianfranco; Badia, Sara; Reyes, Guillermo; Aguilar, Rio

2018-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation frequently affects patients with valvular heart disease. Ablation of atrial fibrillation during valvular surgery is an alternative for restoring sinus rhythm. Objectives This study aimed to evaluate mid-term results of successful atrial fibrillation surgical ablation during valvular heart disease surgery, to explore left atrium post-ablation mechanics and to identify predictors of recurrence. Methods Fifty-three consecutive candidates were included. Eligibility criteria for ablation included persistent atrial fibrillation <10 years and left atrium diameter < 6.0 cm. Three months after surgery, echocardiogram, 24-hour Holter monitoring and electrocardiograms were performed in all candidates who maintained sinus rhythm (44 patients). Echo-study included left atrial deformation parameters (strain and strain rate), using 2-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography. Simultaneously, 30 healthy individuals (controls) were analyzed with the same protocol for left atrial performance. Significance was considered with a P value of < 0.05. Results After a mean follow up of 17 ± 2 months, 13 new post-operative cases of recurrent atrial fibrillation were identified. A total of 1,245 left atrial segments were analysed. Left atrium was severely dilated in the post-surgery group and, mechanical properties of left atrium did not recover after surgery when compared with normal values. Left atrial volume (≥ 64 mL/m2) was the only independent predictor of atrial fibrillation recurrence (p = 0.03). Conclusions Left atrial volume was larger in patients with atrial fibrillation recurrence and emerges as the main predictor of recurrences, thereby improving the selection of candidates for this therapy; however, no differences were found regarding myocardial deformation parameters. Despite electrical maintenance of sinus rhythm, left atrium mechanics did not recover after atrial fibrillation ablation performed during valvular heart disease surgery. PMID:29561964

Comparative efficacy and safety of antipsychotics in the treatment of schizophrenia: a network meta-analysis in a Japanese population.

PubMed

Kishi, Taro; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Matsunaga, Shinji; Matsuda, Yuki; Oya, Kazuto; Iwata, Nakao

2017-01-01

The relative efficacy and tolerability of antipsychotics for schizophrenia are considerably well studied. This study aimed to examine whether previous findings could be replicated in a genetically distinct and homogenous group (ie, Japanese patients with schizophrenia) and whether previous findings could be extended to a broader range of antipsychotics with previously unclear relative efficacy and tolerability. Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed in which randomized trials comparing any of the following interventions were included: second-generation antipsychotics, haloperidol, or placebo. The primary outcomes for efficacy and acceptability were the response rate and all-cause discontinuation. The secondary outcomes included the improvement of Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores, discontinuation because of adverse events, and individual adverse events. Eighteen relevant studies were identified (total n=3,446; aripiprazole =267, blonanserin =285, clozapine =47, clocapramine =295, haloperidol =857, mosapramine =493, olanzapine =179, paliperidone =136, perospirone =146, placebo =138, quetiapine =212, and risperidone =338; mean study duration =8.33±1.41 weeks). In primary outcomes, olanzapine and paliperidone showed efficacy than placebo, and olanzapine and paliperidone showed superior acceptability compared with placebo. There were differences in the incidences of individual adverse events (the best antipsychotic: extrapyramidal symptoms = olanzapine, hyperprolactinemia- related symptoms = quetiapine, sedation = paliperidone, and weight change = blonanserin) among antipsychotics. Although the current analysis exclusively included Japanese patients with schizophrenia, no remarkable differences were observed in efficacy and safety compared with previous meta-analyses. Diverse hierarchies in safety outcomes also support the implication that individual risk expectations for adverse events can guide clinical decisions. However, the sample size was relatively limited. Additional efficacy and safety data are required to fully obtain a conclusive understanding.

Comparative efficacy and safety of antipsychotics in the treatment of schizophrenia: a network meta-analysis in a Japanese population

PubMed Central

Kishi, Taro; Ikuta, Toshikazu; Matsunaga, Shinji; Matsuda, Yuki; Oya, Kazuto; Iwata, Nakao

2017-01-01

Background The relative efficacy and tolerability of antipsychotics for schizophrenia are considerably well studied. This study aimed to examine whether previous findings could be replicated in a genetically distinct and homogenous group (ie, Japanese patients with schizophrenia) and whether previous findings could be extended to a broader range of antipsychotics with previously unclear relative efficacy and tolerability. Methods Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed in which randomized trials comparing any of the following interventions were included: second-generation antipsychotics, haloperidol, or placebo. The primary outcomes for efficacy and acceptability were the response rate and all-cause discontinuation. The secondary outcomes included the improvement of Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores, discontinuation because of adverse events, and individual adverse events. Results Eighteen relevant studies were identified (total n=3,446; aripiprazole =267, blonanserin =285, clozapine =47, clocapramine =295, haloperidol =857, mosapramine =493, olanzapine =179, paliperidone =136, perospirone =146, placebo =138, quetiapine =212, and risperidone =338; mean study duration =8.33±1.41 weeks). In primary outcomes, olanzapine and paliperidone showed efficacy than placebo, and olanzapine and paliperidone showed superior acceptability compared with placebo. There were differences in the incidences of individual adverse events (the best antipsychotic: extrapyramidal symptoms = olanzapine, hyperprolactinemia- related symptoms = quetiapine, sedation = paliperidone, and weight change = blonanserin) among antipsychotics. Conclusion Although the current analysis exclusively included Japanese patients with schizophrenia, no remarkable differences were observed in efficacy and safety compared with previous meta-analyses. Diverse hierarchies in safety outcomes also support the implication that individual risk expectations for adverse events can guide clinical decisions. However, the sample size was relatively limited. Additional efficacy and safety data are required to fully obtain a conclusive understanding. PMID:28553116

Systematic review with network meta-analysis: comparative efficacy and tolerability of different intravenous iron formulations for the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Aksan, A; Işık, H; Radeke, H H; Dignass, A; Stein, J

2017-05-01

Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is a common complication of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) associated with reduced quality of life and increased hospitalisation rates. While the best way of treating IDA in IBD patients is not clearly established, current European guidelines recommend intravenous iron therapy in IBD patients with severe anaemia or intolerance to oral iron compounds. To compare the efficacy and tolerability of different intravenous iron formulations used to treat IDA in IBD patients in a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA), PROSPERO registration number: 42016046565. In June 2016, we systematically searched for studies analysing efficacy and safety of intravenous iron for IDA therapy in IBD. Primary outcome was therapy response, defined as Hb normalisation or increase ≥2 g/dL. Five randomised, controlled trials (n = 1143 patients) were included in a network meta-analysis. Only ferric carboxymaltose was significantly more effective than oral iron [OR=1.9, 95% CrI: (1.1;3.2)]. Rank probabilities showed ferric carboxymaltose to be most effective, followed by iron sucrose, iron isomaltose and oral iron. Pooled data from the systematic review (n = 1746 patients) revealed adverse event rates of 12.0%, 15.3%, 12.0%, 17.0% for ferric carboxymaltose, iron sucrose, iron dextran and iron isomaltose respectively. One drug-related serious adverse event (SAE) each was reported for ferric carboxymaltose and iron isomaltoside, and one possibly drug-related SAE for iron sucrose. Ferric carboxymaltose was the most effective intravenous iron formulation, followed by iron sucrose. In addition, ferric carboxymaltose tended to be better tolerated. Thus, nanocolloidal IV iron products exhibit differing therapeutic and safety characteristics and are not interchangeable. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Viral Status on Survival in Patients Receiving Sorafenib for Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Phase III Trials.

PubMed

Jackson, Richard; Psarelli, Eftychia-Eirini; Berhane, Sarah; Khan, Harun; Johnson, Philip

2017-02-20

Purpose Following the Sorafenib Hepatocellular Carcinoma Assessment Randomized Protocol (SHARP) trial, sorafenib has become the standard of care for patients with advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, but the relation between survival advantage and disease etiology remains unclear. To address this, we undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis of three large prospective randomized trials in which sorafenib was the control arm. Methods Of a total of 3,256 patients, 1,643 (50%) who received sorafenib were available. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). A Bayesian hierarchical approach for individual patient data meta-analyses was applied using a piecewise exponential model. Results are presented in terms of hazard ratios comparing sorafenib with alternative therapies according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV) status. Results Hazard ratios show improved OS for sorafenib in patients who are both HBV negative and HCV positive (log [hazard ratio], -0.27; 95% CI, -0.46 to -0.06). Median unadjusted survival is 12.6 (11.15 to 13.8) months for sorafenib and 10.2 (8.88 to 12.2) months for "other" treatments in this subgroup. There was no evidence of improvement in OS for any other patient subgroups defined by HBV and HCV. Results were consistent across all trials with heterogeneity assessed using Cochran's Q statistic. Conclusion There is consistent evidence that the effect of sorafenib on OS is dependent on patients' hepatitis status. There is an improved OS for patients negative for HBV and positive for HCV when treated with sorafenib. There was no evidence of any improvement in OS attributable to sorafenib for patients positive for HBV and negative for HCV.

Accuracy of clinical diagnosis of Parkinson disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rizzo, Giovanni; Copetti, Massimiliano; Arcuti, Simona; Martino, Davide; Fontana, Andrea; Logroscino, Giancarlo

2016-02-09

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of clinical diagnosis of Parkinson disease (PD) reported in the last 25 years by a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched for articles published between 1988 and August 2014. Studies were included if reporting diagnostic parameters regarding clinical diagnosis of PD or crude data. The selected studies were subclassified based on different study setting, type of test diagnosis, and gold standard. Bayesian meta-analyses of available data were performed. We selected 20 studies, including 11 using pathologic examination as gold standard. Considering only these 11 studies, the pooled diagnostic accuracy was 80.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 75.2%-85.3%). Accuracy was 73.8% (95% CrI 67.8%-79.6%) for clinical diagnosis performed mainly by nonexperts. Accuracy of clinical diagnosis performed by movement disorders experts rose from 79.6% (95% CrI 46%-95.1%) of initial assessment to 83.9% (95% CrI 69.7%-92.6%) of refined diagnosis after follow-up. Using UK Parkinson's Disease Society Brain Bank Research Center criteria, the pooled diagnostic accuracy was 82.7% (95% CrI 62.6%-93%). The overall validity of clinical diagnosis of PD is not satisfying. The accuracy did not significantly improve in the last 25 years, particularly in the early stages of disease, where response to dopaminergic treatment is less defined and hallmarks of alternative diagnoses such as atypical parkinsonism may not have emerged. Misclassification rate should be considered to calculate the sample size both in observational studies and randomized controlled trials. Imaging and biomarkers are urgently needed to improve the accuracy of clinical diagnosis in vivo. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Religiosity, Religious Schools, and Their Relationship with the Achievement Gap: A Research Synthesis and Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeynes, William H.

2010-01-01

A research synthesis was conducted including three meta analyses, a review of the relevant literature, and supplemental analyses examining the relationship between personal faith and the reduction of the achievement gap. Personal faith included belief and adherence to any religion. The results of the three meta-analyses indicated that: (a)…

Empirical Evaluation of Meta-Analytic Approaches for Nutrient and Health Outcome Dose-Response Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Winifred W.; Schmid, Christopher H.; Lichtenstein, Alice H.; Lau, Joseph; Trikalinos, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to empirically compare alternative meta-analytic methods for combining dose-response data from epidemiological studies. We identified meta-analyses of epidemiological studies that analyzed the association between a single nutrient and a dichotomous outcome. For each topic, we performed meta-analyses of odds ratios…

Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry.

PubMed

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

2015-01-01

Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association.

Using meta-analytic path analysis to test theoretical predictions in health behavior: An illustration based on meta-analyses of the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Hagger, Martin S; Chan, Derwin K C; Protogerou, Cleo; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

2016-08-01

Synthesizing research on social cognitive theories applied to health behavior is an important step in the development of an evidence base of psychological factors as targets for effective behavioral interventions. However, few meta-analyses of research on social cognitive theories in health contexts have conducted simultaneous tests of theoretically-stipulated pattern effects using path analysis. We argue that conducting path analyses of meta-analytic effects among constructs from social cognitive theories is important to test nomological validity, account for mediation effects, and evaluate unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. We illustrate our points by conducting new analyses of two meta-analyses of a popular theory applied to health behaviors, the theory of planned behavior. We conducted meta-analytic path analyses of the theory in two behavioral contexts (alcohol and dietary behaviors) using data from the primary studies included in the original meta-analyses augmented to include intercorrelations among constructs and relations with past behavior missing from the original analysis. Findings supported the nomological validity of the theory and its hypotheses for both behaviors, confirmed important model processes through mediation analysis, demonstrated the attenuating effect of past behavior on theory relations, and provided estimates of the unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. Our analysis illustrates the importance of conducting a simultaneous test of theory-stipulated effects in meta-analyses of social cognitive theories applied to health behavior. We recommend researchers adopt this analytic procedure when synthesizing evidence across primary tests of social cognitive theories in health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data.

PubMed

Riley, R D; Price, M J; Jackson, D; Wardle, M; Gueyffier, F; Wang, J; Staessen, J A; White, I R

2015-06-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment-covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. © 2014 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Considerations on the use of meta-analyses in the orientation of knowledge and decisions in Occupational Medicine].

PubMed

Catalani, Simona; Berra, Alessandro; Tomasi, Cesare; Romano, Canzio; Pira, Enrico; Garzaro, Giacomo; Apostoli, Pietro

2015-01-01

In recent years, due to the need to elaborate the amount of information available from the scientific literature, the meta-analyses and systematic reviews have become very numerous. The meta-analyses are carried out to evaluate the association between two events when single researches haven't provided comprehensive data. On the other hand, a good meta-analysis must satisfy certain criteria, from the selection of the studies until the evaluation of the outcomes; to this purpose, the application of methods for quality assessment is a crucial point to obtain data of adequate reliability. The aim of this review is to give some introductory tools for a critical approach to meta-analyses and systematic reviews, which have become useful instruments also in occupational medicine.

Methodology and reporting of meta-analyses in the neurosurgical literature.

PubMed

Klimo, Paul; Thompson, Clinton J; Ragel, Brian T; Boop, Frederick A

2014-04-01

Neurosurgeons are inundated with vast amounts of new clinical research on a daily basis, making it difficult and time-consuming to keep up with the latest literature. Meta-analysis is an extension of a systematic review that employs statistical techniques to pool the data from the literature in order to calculate a cumulative effect size. This is done to answer a clearly defined a priori question. Despite their increasing popularity in the neurosurgery literature, meta-analyses have not been scrutinized in terms of reporting and methodology. The authors performed a literature search using PubMed/MEDLINE to locate all meta-analyses that have been published in the JNS Publishing Group journals (Journal of Neurosurgery, Journal of Neurosurgery: Pediatrics, Journal of Neurosurgery: Spine, and Neurosurgical Focus) or Neurosurgery. Accepted checklists for reporting (PRISMA) and methodology (AMSTAR) were applied to each meta-analysis, and the number of items within each checklist that were satisfactorily fulfilled was recorded. The authors sought to answer 4 specific questions: Are meta-analyses improving 1) with time; 2) when the study met their definition of a meta-analysis; 3) when clinicians collaborated with a potential expert in meta-analysis; and 4) when the meta-analysis was the only focus of the paper? Seventy-two meta-analyses were published in the JNS Publishing Group journals and Neurosurgery between 1990 and 2012. The number of published meta-analyses has increased dramatically in the last several years. The most common topics were vascular, and most were based on observational studies. Only 11 papers were prepared using an established checklist. The average AMSTAR and PRISMA scores (proportion of items satisfactorily fulfilled divided by the total number of eligible items in the respective instrument) were 31% and 55%, respectively. Major deficiencies were identified, including the lack of a comprehensive search strategy, study selection and data extraction, assessment of heterogeneity, publication bias, and study quality. Almost one-third of the papers did not meet our basic definition of a meta-analysis. The quality of reporting and methodology was better 1) when the study met our definition of a meta-analysis; 2) when one or more of the authors had experience or expertise in conducting a meta-analysis; 3) when the meta-analysis was not conducted alongside an evaluation of the authors' own data; and 4) in more recent studies. Reporting and methodology of meta-analyses in the neurosurgery literature is excessively variable and overall poor. As these papers are being published with increasing frequency, neurosurgical journals need to adopt a clear definition of a meta-analysis and insist that they be created using checklists for both reporting and methodology. Standardization will ensure high-quality publications.

Grey literature in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Conn, Vicki S; Valentine, Jeffrey C; Cooper, Harris M; Rantz, Marilyn J

2003-01-01

In meta-analysis, researchers combine the results of individual studies to arrive at cumulative conclusions. Meta-analysts sometimes include "grey literature" in their evidential base, which includes unpublished studies and studies published outside widely available journals. Because grey literature is a source of data that might not employ peer review, critics have questioned the validity of its data and the results of meta-analyses that include it. To examine evidence regarding whether grey literature should be included in meta-analyses and strategies to manage grey literature in quantitative synthesis. This article reviews evidence on whether the results of studies published in peer-reviewed journals are representative of results from broader samplings of research on a topic as a rationale for inclusion of grey literature. Strategies to enhance access to grey literature are addressed. The most consistent and robust difference between published and grey literature is that published research is more likely to contain results that are statistically significant. Effect size estimates of published research are about one-third larger than those of unpublished studies. Unfunded and small sample studies are less likely to be published. Yet, importantly, methodological rigor does not differ between published and grey literature. Meta-analyses that exclude grey literature likely (a) over-represent studies with statistically significant findings, (b) inflate effect size estimates, and (c) provide less precise effect size estimates than meta-analyses including grey literature. Meta-analyses should include grey literature to fully reflect the existing evidential base and should assess the impact of methodological variations through moderator analysis.

The Serotonin Transporter Promoter Variant (5-HTTLPR), Stress, and Depression Meta-Analysis Revisited: Evidence of Genetic Moderation

PubMed Central

Karg, Katja; Burmeister, Margit; Shedden, Kerby; Sen, Srijan

2013-01-01

Context The initial report of an interaction between a serotonin transporter promoter polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) and stress in the development of depression is perhaps the best-known and most cited finding in psychiatric genetics. Two recent meta-analyses explored the studies seeking to replicate this initial report and concluded that the evidence did not support the presence of the interaction. However, even the larger of the meta-analyses included only 14 of the 56 studies that have explored the relationship between 5-HTTLPR, stress and depression. Objective We sought to perform a meta-analysis including all relevant studies assessing whether 5-HTTLPR moderates the relationship between stress and depression. Data Sources We identified relevant articles from previous meta-analyses and reviews and a PubMed database search. Study Selection We excluded two studies presenting data that were included in other, larger, studies already included in our meta-analysis to avoid duplicate counting of subjects. Data Extraction In order to perform a more inclusive meta-analysis, we used the Liptak-Stouffer Z-score method to combine findings of primary studies at the significance test level rather than raw data level. Results We included 54 studies and found strong evidence that 5-HTTLPR moderates the relationship between stress and depression, with the 5-HTTLPR s allele associated with an increased risk of developing depression under stress (p<0.0001). When restricting our analysis to the studies included in the previous meta-analyses, we found no evidence of association (Munafo studies p=0.16; Risch studies p=0.11). This suggests that the difference in results between previous meta-analyses and ours was not due to the difference in meta-analytic technique but instead to the expanded set of studies included in this analysis. Conclusions Contrary to the results of the smaller earlier meta-analyses, we find strong evidence that 5-HTTLPR moderates the relationship between stress and depression in the studies published to date. PMID:21199959

A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

2018-03-01

To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Integration in Cancer: Current Landscape and Future Prospects

PubMed Central

Ioannidis, John P.A.; Schully, Sheri D.; Lam, Tram Kim; Khoury, Muin J.

2015-01-01

Knowledge integration includes knowledge management, synthesis, and translation processes. It aims to maximize the use of collected scientific information and accelerate translation of discoveries into individual and population health benefits. Accumulated evidence in cancer epidemiology constitutes a large share of the 2.7 million articles on cancer in PubMed. We examine the landscape of knowledge integration in cancer epidemiology. Past approaches have mostly used retrospective efforts of knowledge management and traditional systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Systematic searches identify 2,332 meta-analyses, about half of which are on genetics and epigenetics. Meta-analyses represent 1:89-1:1162 of published articles in various cancer subfields. Recently, there are more collaborative meta-analyses with individual-level data, including those with prospective collection of measurements [e.g., genotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS)]; this may help increase the reliability of inferences in the field. However, most meta-analyses are still done retrospectively with published information. There is also a flurry of candidate gene meta-analyses with spuriously prevalent "positive" results. Prospective design of large research agendas, registration of datasets, and public availability of data and analyses may improve our ability to identify knowledge gaps, maximize and accelerate translational progress or—at a minimum—recognize dead ends in a more timely fashion. PMID:23093546

Knowledge integration in cancer: current landscape and future prospects.

PubMed

Ioannidis, John P A; Schully, Sheri D; Lam, Tram Kim; Khoury, Muin J

2013-01-01

Knowledge integration includes knowledge management, synthesis, and translation processes. It aims to maximize the use of collected scientific information and accelerate translation of discoveries into individual and population health benefits. Accumulated evidence in cancer epidemiology constitutes a large share of the 2.7 million articles on cancer in PubMed. We examine the landscape of knowledge integration in cancer epidemiology. Past approaches have mostly used retrospective efforts of knowledge management and traditional systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Systematic searches identify 2,332 meta-analyses, about half of which are on genetics and epigenetics. Meta-analyses represent 1:89-1:1162 of published articles in various cancer subfields. Recently, there are more collaborative meta-analyses with individual-level data, including those with prospective collection of measurements [e.g., genotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS)]; this may help increase the reliability of inferences in the field. However, most meta-analyses are still done retrospectively with published information. There is also a flurry of candidate gene meta-analyses with spuriously prevalent "positive" results. Prospective design of large research agendas, registration of datasets, and public availability of data and analyses may improve our ability to identify knowledge gaps, maximize and accelerate translational progress or-at a minimum-recognize dead ends in a more timely fashion.

Stuttering, induced fluency, and natural fluency: a hierarchical series of activation likelihood estimation meta-analyses.

PubMed

Budde, Kristin S; Barron, Daniel S; Fox, Peter T

2014-12-01

Developmental stuttering is a speech disorder most likely due to a heritable form of developmental dysmyelination impairing the function of the speech-motor system. Speech-induced brain-activation patterns in persons who stutter (PWS) are anomalous in various ways; the consistency of these aberrant patterns is a matter of ongoing debate. Here, we present a hierarchical series of coordinate-based meta-analyses addressing this issue. Two tiers of meta-analyses were performed on a 17-paper dataset (202 PWS; 167 fluent controls). Four large-scale (top-tier) meta-analyses were performed, two for each subject group (PWS and controls). These analyses robustly confirmed the regional effects previously postulated as "neural signatures of stuttering" (Brown, Ingham, Ingham, Laird, & Fox, 2005) and extended this designation to additional regions. Two smaller-scale (lower-tier) meta-analyses refined the interpretation of the large-scale analyses: (1) a between-group contrast targeting differences between PWS and controls (stuttering trait); and (2) a within-group contrast (PWS only) of stuttering with induced fluency (stuttering state). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atrial fibrillation screening in pharmacies using an iPhone ECG: a qualitative review of implementation.

PubMed

Lowres, Nicole; Krass, Ines; Neubeck, Lis; Redfern, Julie; McLachlan, Andrew J; Bennett, Alexandra A; Freedman, S Ben

2015-12-01

Atrial fibrillation guidelines advocate screening to identify undiagnosed atrial fibrillation. Community pharmacies may provide an opportunistic venue for such screening. To explore the experience of implementing an atrial fibrillation screening service from the pharmacist's perspective including: the process of study implementation; the perceived benefits; the barriers and enablers; and the challenges for future sustainability of atrial fibrillation screening within pharmacies. Setting Interviews were conducted face-to-face in the pharmacy or via telephone, according to pharmacist preference. The 'SEARCH-AF study' screened 1000 pharmacy customers aged ≥65 years using an iPhone electrocardiogram, identifying 1.5 % with undiagnosed atrial fibrillation. Nine pharmacists took part in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed in full and thematically analysed. Qualitative analysis of the experience of implementing an AF screening service from the pharmacist's perspective. Four broad themes relating to service provision were identified: (1) interest and engagement in atrial fibrillation screening by pharmacists, customers, and doctors with the novel, easy-to-use electrocardiogram technology serving as an incentive to undergo screening and an education tool for pharmacists to use with customers; (2) perceived benefits to the pharmacist including increased job satisfaction, improvement in customer relations and pharmacy profile by fostering enhanced customer care and the educational role of pharmacists; (3) implementation barriers including managing workflow, and enablers such as personal approaches for recruitment, and allocating time to discuss screening process and fears; and, (4) potential for sustainable future implementation including remuneration linked to government or pharmacy incentives, combined cardiovascular screening, and automating sections of risk-assessments using touch-screen technology. Atrial fibrillation screening in pharmacies is well accepted by pharmacists and customers. Many pharmacists combined atrial fibrillation screening with other health screens reporting improved time-efficiency and greater customer satisfaction. Widespread implementation of atrial fibrillation screening requires longterm funding, which could be provided for a combined cardiovascular screening service. Further research could focus on feasibility and cost-effectiveness of combined cardiovascular screening in pharmacies.

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Self-consistent implementation of meta-GGA functionals for the ONETEP linear-scaling electronic structure package.

PubMed

Womack, James C; Mardirossian, Narbe; Head-Gordon, Martin; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton

2016-11-28

Accurate and computationally efficient exchange-correlation functionals are critical to the successful application of linear-scaling density functional theory (DFT). Local and semi-local functionals of the density are naturally compatible with linear-scaling approaches, having a general form which assumes the locality of electronic interactions and which can be efficiently evaluated by numerical quadrature. Presently, the most sophisticated and flexible semi-local functionals are members of the meta-generalized-gradient approximation (meta-GGA) family, and depend upon the kinetic energy density, τ, in addition to the charge density and its gradient. In order to extend the theoretical and computational advantages of τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals to large-scale DFT calculations on thousands of atoms, we have implemented support for τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals in the ONETEP program. In this paper we lay out the theoretical innovations necessary to implement τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals within ONETEP's linear-scaling formalism. We present expressions for the gradient of the τ-dependent exchange-correlation energy, necessary for direct energy minimization. We also derive the forms of the τ-dependent exchange-correlation potential and kinetic energy density in terms of the strictly localized, self-consistently optimized orbitals used by ONETEP. To validate the numerical accuracy of our self-consistent meta-GGA implementation, we performed calculations using the B97M-V and PKZB meta-GGAs on a variety of small molecules. Using only a minimal basis set of self-consistently optimized local orbitals, we obtain energies in excellent agreement with large basis set calculations performed using other codes. Finally, to establish the linear-scaling computational cost and applicability of our approach to large-scale calculations, we present the outcome of self-consistent meta-GGA calculations on amyloid fibrils of increasing size, up to tens of thousands of atoms.

Self-consistent implementation of meta-GGA functionals for the ONETEP linear-scaling electronic structure package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Womack, James C.; Mardirossian, Narbe; Head-Gordon, Martin; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton

2016-11-01

Accurate and computationally efficient exchange-correlation functionals are critical to the successful application of linear-scaling density functional theory (DFT). Local and semi-local functionals of the density are naturally compatible with linear-scaling approaches, having a general form which assumes the locality of electronic interactions and which can be efficiently evaluated by numerical quadrature. Presently, the most sophisticated and flexible semi-local functionals are members of the meta-generalized-gradient approximation (meta-GGA) family, and depend upon the kinetic energy density, τ, in addition to the charge density and its gradient. In order to extend the theoretical and computational advantages of τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals to large-scale DFT calculations on thousands of atoms, we have implemented support for τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals in the ONETEP program. In this paper we lay out the theoretical innovations necessary to implement τ-dependent meta-GGA functionals within ONETEP's linear-scaling formalism. We present expressions for the gradient of the τ-dependent exchange-correlation energy, necessary for direct energy minimization. We also derive the forms of the τ-dependent exchange-correlation potential and kinetic energy density in terms of the strictly localized, self-consistently optimized orbitals used by ONETEP. To validate the numerical accuracy of our self-consistent meta-GGA implementation, we performed calculations using the B97M-V and PKZB meta-GGAs on a variety of small molecules. Using only a minimal basis set of self-consistently optimized local orbitals, we obtain energies in excellent agreement with large basis set calculations performed using other codes. Finally, to establish the linear-scaling computational cost and applicability of our approach to large-scale calculations, we present the outcome of self-consistent meta-GGA calculations on amyloid fibrils of increasing size, up to tens of thousands of atoms.

Bayesian network meta-analysis of root coverage procedures: ranking efficacy and identification of best treatment.

PubMed

Buti, Jacopo; Baccini, Michela; Nieri, Michele; La Marca, Michele; Pini-Prato, Giovan P

2013-04-01

The aim of this work was to conduct a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NM) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to establish a ranking in efficacy and the best technique for coronally advanced flap (CAF)-based root coverage procedures. A literature search on PubMed, Cochrane libraries, EMBASE, and hand-searched journals until June 2012 was conducted to identify RCTs on treatments of Miller Class I and II gingival recessions with at least 6 months of follow-up. The treatment outcomes were recession reduction (RecRed), clinical attachment gain (CALgain), keratinized tissue gain (KTgain), and complete root coverage (CRC). Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria, 20 of which were classified as at high risk of bias. The CAF+connective tissue graft (CTG) combination ranked highest in effectiveness for RecRed (Probability of being the best = 40%) and CALgain (Pr = 33%); CAF+enamel matrix derivative (EMD) was slightly better for CRC; CAF+Collagen Matrix (CM) appeared effective for KTgain (Pr = 69%). Network inconsistency was low for all outcomes excluding CALgain. CAF+CTG might be considered the gold standard in root coverage procedures. The low amount of inconsistency gives support to the reliability of the present findings. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Evaluation of uncertainty in the adjustment of fundamental constants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodnar, Olha; Elster, Clemens; Fischer, Joachim; Possolo, Antonio; Toman, Blaza

2016-02-01

Combining multiple measurement results for the same quantity is an important task in metrology and in many other areas. Examples include the determination of fundamental constants, the calculation of reference values in interlaboratory comparisons, or the meta-analysis of clinical studies. However, neither the GUM nor its supplements give any guidance for this task. Various approaches are applied such as weighted least-squares in conjunction with the Birge ratio or random effects models. While the former approach, which is based on a location-scale model, is particularly popular in metrology, the latter represents a standard tool used in statistics for meta-analysis. We investigate the reliability and robustness of the location-scale model and the random effects model with particular focus on resulting coverage or credible intervals. The interval estimates are obtained by adopting a Bayesian point of view in conjunction with a non-informative prior that is determined by a currently favored principle for selecting non-informative priors. Both approaches are compared by applying them to simulated data as well as to data for the Planck constant and the Newtonian constant of gravitation. Our results suggest that the proposed Bayesian inference based on the random effects model is more reliable and less sensitive to model misspecifications than the approach based on the location-scale model.

Software and package applicating for network meta-analysis: A usage-based comparative study.

PubMed

Xu, Chang; Niu, Yuming; Wu, Junyi; Gu, Huiyun; Zhang, Chao

2017-12-21

To compare and analyze the characteristics and functions of software applications for network meta-analysis (NMA). PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, the official websites of Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS), Stata and R, and Google were searched to collect the software and packages for performing NMA; software and packages published up to March 2016 were included. After collecting the software, packages, and their user guides, we used the software and packages to calculate a typical example. All characteristics, functions, and computed results were compared and analyzed. Ten types of software were included, including programming and non-programming software. They were developed mainly based on Bayesian or frequentist theory. Most types of software have the characteristics of easy operation, easy mastery, exact calculation, or excellent graphing. However, there was no single software that performed accurate calculations with superior graphing; this could only be achieved through the combination of two or more types of software. This study suggests that the user should choose the appropriate software according to personal programming basis, operational habits, and financial ability. Then, the choice of the combination of BUGS and R (or Stata) software to perform the NMA is considered. © 2017 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

The PRISMA extension statement for reporting of systematic reviews incorporating network meta-analyses of health care interventions: checklist and explanations.

PubMed

Hutton, Brian; Salanti, Georgia; Caldwell, Deborah M; Chaimani, Anna; Schmid, Christopher H; Cameron, Chris; Ioannidis, John P A; Straus, Sharon; Thorlund, Kristian; Jansen, Jeroen P; Mulrow, Cynthia; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Gøtzsche, Peter C; Dickersin, Kay; Boutron, Isabelle; Altman, Douglas G; Moher, David

2015-06-02

The PRISMA statement is a reporting guideline designed to improve the completeness of reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Authors have used this guideline worldwide to prepare their reviews for publication. In the past, these reports typically compared 2 treatment alternatives. With the evolution of systematic reviews that compare multiple treatments, some of them only indirectly, authors face novel challenges for conducting and reporting their reviews. This extension of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) statement was developed specifically to improve the reporting of systematic reviews incorporating network meta-analyses. A group of experts participated in a systematic review, Delphi survey, and face-to-face discussion and consensus meeting to establish new checklist items for this extension statement. Current PRISMA items were also clarified. A modified, 32-item PRISMA extension checklist was developed to address what the group considered to be immediately relevant to the reporting of network meta-analyses. This document presents the extension and provides examples of good reporting, as well as elaborations regarding the rationale for new checklist items and the modification of previously existing items from the PRISMA statement. It also highlights educational information related to key considerations in the practice of network meta-analysis. The target audience includes authors and readers of network meta-analyses, as well as journal editors and peer reviewers.

Summary of Meta-Analyses Dealing with Single-Row versus Double-Row Repair Techniques for Rotator Cuff Tears

PubMed Central

Spiegl, U.J.; Euler, S.A.; Millett, P.J.; Hepp, P.

2016-01-01

Background: Several meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials have been performed to analyze whether double-row (DR) rotator cuff repair (RCR) provides superior clinical outcomes and structural healing compared to single-row (SR) repair. The purpose of this study was to sum up the results of meta-analysis comparing SR and DR repair with respect on clinical outcomes and re-tear rates. Methods: A literature search was undertaken to identify all meta-analyses dealing with randomized controlled trials comparing clinical und structural outcomes after SR versus DR RCR. Results: Eight meta-analyses met the eligibility criteria: two including Level I studies only, five including both Level I and Level II studies, and one including additional Level III studies. Four meta-analyses found no differences between SR and DR RCR for patient outcomes, whereas four favored DR RCR for tears greater than 3 cm. Two meta-analyses found no structural healing differences between SR and DR RCR, whereas six found DR repair to be superior for tears greater than 3 cm tears. Conclusion: No clinical differences are seen between single-row and double-row repair for small and medium rotator cuff tears after a short-term follow-up period with a higher re-tear rate following single-row repairs. There seems to be a trend to superior results with double-row repair in large to massive tear sizes. PMID:27708735

Consensus building for interlaboratory studies, key comparisons, and meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koepke, Amanda; Lafarge, Thomas; Possolo, Antonio; Toman, Blaza

2017-06-01

Interlaboratory studies in measurement science, including key comparisons, and meta-analyses in several fields, including medicine, serve to intercompare measurement results obtained independently, and typically produce a consensus value for the common measurand that blends the values measured by the participants. Since interlaboratory studies and meta-analyses reveal and quantify differences between measured values, regardless of the underlying causes for such differences, they also provide so-called ‘top-down’ evaluations of measurement uncertainty. Measured values are often substantially over-dispersed by comparison with their individual, stated uncertainties, thus suggesting the existence of yet unrecognized sources of uncertainty (dark uncertainty). We contrast two different approaches to take dark uncertainty into account both in the computation of consensus values and in the evaluation of the associated uncertainty, which have traditionally been preferred by different scientific communities. One inflates the stated uncertainties by a multiplicative factor. The other adds laboratory-specific ‘effects’ to the value of the measurand. After distinguishing what we call recipe-based and model-based approaches to data reductions in interlaboratory studies, we state six guiding principles that should inform such reductions. These principles favor model-based approaches that expose and facilitate the critical assessment of validating assumptions, and give preeminence to substantive criteria to determine which measurement results to include, and which to exclude, as opposed to purely statistical considerations, and also how to weigh them. Following an overview of maximum likelihood methods, three general purpose procedures for data reduction are described in detail, including explanations of how the consensus value and degrees of equivalence are computed, and the associated uncertainty evaluated: the DerSimonian-Laird procedure; a hierarchical Bayesian procedure; and the Linear Pool. These three procedures have been implemented and made widely accessible in a Web-based application (NIST Consensus Builder). We illustrate principles, statistical models, and data reduction procedures in four examples: (i) the measurement of the Newtonian constant of gravitation; (ii) the measurement of the half-lives of radioactive isotopes of caesium and strontium; (iii) the comparison of two alternative treatments for carotid artery stenosis; and (iv) a key comparison where the measurand was the calibration factor of a radio-frequency power sensor.

Small studies may overestimate the effect sizes in critical care meta-analyses: a meta-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Small-study effects refer to the fact that trials with limited sample sizes are more likely to report larger beneficial effects than large trials. However, this has never been investigated in critical care medicine. Thus, the present study aimed to examine the presence and extent of small-study effects in critical care medicine. Methods Critical care meta-analyses involving randomized controlled trials and reported mortality as an outcome measure were considered eligible for the study. Component trials were classified as large (≥100 patients per arm) and small (<100 patients per arm) according to their sample sizes. Ratio of odds ratio (ROR) was calculated for each meta-analysis and then RORs were combined using a meta-analytic approach. ROR<1 indicated larger beneficial effect in small trials. Small and large trials were compared in methodological qualities including sequence generating, blinding, allocation concealment, intention to treat and sample size calculation. Results A total of 27 critical care meta-analyses involving 317 trials were included. Of them, five meta-analyses showed statistically significant RORs <1, and other meta-analyses did not reach a statistical significance. Overall, the pooled ROR was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.68); the heterogeneity was moderate with an I2 of 50.3% (chi-squared = 52.30; P = 0.002). Large trials showed significantly better reporting quality than small trials in terms of sequence generating, allocation concealment, blinding, intention to treat, sample size calculation and incomplete follow-up data. Conclusions Small trials are more likely to report larger beneficial effects than large trials in critical care medicine, which could be partly explained by the lower methodological quality in small trials. Caution should be practiced in the interpretation of meta-analyses involving small trials. PMID:23302257

Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry

PubMed Central

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

2015-01-01

Background Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. Objective The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. Methods A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Results Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. Conclusion In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association. PMID:26422698

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Wells, Jessie A; Edwards, Robert D; Blomberg, Simon P

2012-06-28

Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language. PMID:22741602

Diagnostic accuracy of a bayesian latent group analysis for the detection of malingering-related poor effort.

PubMed

Ortega, Alonso; Labrenz, Stephan; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

2013-01-01

In the last decade, different statistical techniques have been introduced to improve assessment of malingering-related poor effort. In this context, we have recently shown preliminary evidence that a Bayesian latent group model may help to optimize classification accuracy using a simulation research design. In the present study, we conducted two analyses. Firstly, we evaluated how accurately this Bayesian approach can distinguish between participants answering in an honest way (honest response group) and participants feigning cognitive impairment (experimental malingering group). Secondly, we tested the accuracy of our model in the differentiation between patients who had real cognitive deficits (cognitively impaired group) and participants who belonged to the experimental malingering group. All Bayesian analyses were conducted using the raw scores of a visual recognition forced-choice task (2AFC), the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM, Trial 2), and the Word Memory Test (WMT, primary effort subtests). The first analysis showed 100% accuracy for the Bayesian model in distinguishing participants of both groups with all effort measures. The second analysis showed outstanding overall accuracy of the Bayesian model when estimates were obtained from the 2AFC and the TOMM raw scores. Diagnostic accuracy of the Bayesian model diminished when using the WMT total raw scores. Despite, overall diagnostic accuracy can still be considered excellent. The most plausible explanation for this decrement is the low performance in verbal recognition and fluency tasks of some patients of the cognitively impaired group. Additionally, the Bayesian model provides individual estimates, p(zi |D), of examinees' effort levels. In conclusion, both high classification accuracy levels and Bayesian individual estimates of effort may be very useful for clinicians when assessing for effort in medico-legal settings.

Dronedarone for the treatment of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter: approval and efficacy.

PubMed

Wolbrette, Deborah; Gonzalez, Mario; Samii, Soraya; Banchs, Javier; Penny-Peterson, Erica; Naccarelli, Gerald

2010-08-09

Dronedarone, a new Class III antiarrhythmic agent, has now been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for use in patients with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter. Approval came in March 2009 due to the positive results of the ATHENA trial showing significant reductions in all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization with dronedarone use. A post hoc analysis of the ATHENA data also suggested a decrease in stroke risk with this agent. However, due to safety concerns in the heart failure population in the earlier ANDROMEDA trial, dronedarone is not recommended for patients with an ejection fraction <35% and recent decompensated heart failure. Dronedarone is an amiodarone analog with multichannel blocking electrophysiologic properties similar to those of amiodarone, but several structural differences. Dronedarone's lack of the iodine moiety reduces its potential for thyroid and pulmonary toxicity. Preliminary data from the DIONYSOS trial, and an indirect meta-analysis comparing amiodarone with dronedarone, showed amiodarone to be more effective in maintaining sinus rhythm, while dronedarone was associated with fewer adverse effects resulting in early termination of the drug. Dronedarone is the first antiarrhythmic drug for the treatment of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter shown to reduce cardiovascular hospitalizations. In patients with structural heart disease who have an ejection fraction >35% and no recent decompensated heart failure, dronedarone should be considered earlier than amiodarone in the treatment algorithm.

Vitamin D and multiple health outcomes: umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies and randomised trials

PubMed Central

Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Zgaga, Lina; Ioannidis, John P A

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate the breadth, validity, and presence of biases of the associations of vitamin D with diverse outcomes. Design Umbrella review of the evidence across systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies of plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D or 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations and randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation. Data sources Medline, Embase, and screening of citations and references. Eligibility criteria Three types of studies were eligible for the umbrella review: systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined observational associations between circulating vitamin D concentrations and any clinical outcome; and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials assessing supplementation with vitamin D or active compounds (both established and newer compounds of vitamin D). Results 107 systematic literature reviews and 74 meta-analyses of observational studies of plasma vitamin D concentrations and 87 meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation were identified. The relation between vitamin D and 137 outcomes has been explored, covering a wide range of skeletal, malignant, cardiovascular, autoimmune, infectious, metabolic, and other diseases. Ten outcomes were examined by both meta-analyses of observational studies and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials, but the direction of the effect and level of statistical significance was concordant only for birth weight (maternal vitamin D status or supplementation). On the basis of the available evidence, an association between vitamin D concentrations and birth weight, dental caries in children, maternal vitamin D concentrations at term, and parathyroid hormone concentrations in patients with chronic kidney disease requiring dialysis is probable, but further studies and better designed trials are needed to draw firmer conclusions. In contrast to previous reports, evidence does not support the argument that vitamin D only supplementation increases bone mineral density or reduces the risk of fractures or falls in older people. Conclusions Despite a few hundred systematic reviews and meta-analyses, highly convincing evidence of a clear role of vitamin D does not exist for any outcome, but associations with a selection of outcomes are probable. PMID:24690624

Living network meta-analysis compared with pairwise meta-analysis in comparative effectiveness research: empirical study.

PubMed

Nikolakopoulou, Adriani; Mavridis, Dimitris; Furukawa, Toshi A; Cipriani, Andrea; Tricco, Andrea C; Straus, Sharon E; Siontis, George C M; Egger, Matthias; Salanti, Georgia

2018-02-28

To examine whether the continuous updating of networks of prospectively planned randomised controlled trials (RCTs) ("living" network meta-analysis) provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis in comparative effectiveness of medical interventions earlier than the updating of conventional, pairwise meta-analysis. Empirical study of the accumulating evidence about the comparative effectiveness of clinical interventions. Database of network meta-analyses of RCTs identified through searches of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 14 April 2015. Network meta-analyses published after January 2012 that compared at least five treatments and included at least 20 RCTs. Clinical experts were asked to identify in each network the treatment comparison of greatest clinical interest. Comparisons were excluded for which direct and indirect evidence disagreed, based on side, or node, splitting test (P<0.10). Cumulative pairwise and network meta-analyses were performed for each selected comparison. Monitoring boundaries of statistical significance were constructed and the evidence against the null hypothesis was considered to be strong when the monitoring boundaries were crossed. A significance level was defined as α=5%, power of 90% (β=10%), and an anticipated treatment effect to detect equal to the final estimate from the network meta-analysis. The frequency and time to strong evidence was compared against the null hypothesis between pairwise and network meta-analyses. 49 comparisons of interest from 44 networks were included; most (n=39, 80%) were between active drugs, mainly from the specialties of cardiology, endocrinology, psychiatry, and rheumatology. 29 comparisons were informed by both direct and indirect evidence (59%), 13 by indirect evidence (27%), and 7 by direct evidence (14%). Both network and pairwise meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis for seven comparisons, but for an additional 10 comparisons only network meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis (P=0.002). The median time to strong evidence against the null hypothesis was 19 years with living network meta-analysis and 23 years with living pairwise meta-analysis (hazard ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 7.72, P=0.05). Studies directly comparing the treatments of interest continued to be published for eight comparisons after strong evidence had become evident in network meta-analysis. In comparative effectiveness research, prospectively planned living network meta-analyses produced strong evidence against the null hypothesis more often and earlier than conventional, pairwise meta-analyses. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Living network meta-analysis compared with pairwise meta-analysis in comparative effectiveness research: empirical study

PubMed Central

Nikolakopoulou, Adriani; Mavridis, Dimitris; Furukawa, Toshi A; Cipriani, Andrea; Tricco, Andrea C; Straus, Sharon E; Siontis, George C M; Egger, Matthias

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine whether the continuous updating of networks of prospectively planned randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (“living” network meta-analysis) provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis in comparative effectiveness of medical interventions earlier than the updating of conventional, pairwise meta-analysis. Design Empirical study of the accumulating evidence about the comparative effectiveness of clinical interventions. Data sources Database of network meta-analyses of RCTs identified through searches of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 14 April 2015. Eligibility criteria for study selection Network meta-analyses published after January 2012 that compared at least five treatments and included at least 20 RCTs. Clinical experts were asked to identify in each network the treatment comparison of greatest clinical interest. Comparisons were excluded for which direct and indirect evidence disagreed, based on side, or node, splitting test (P<0.10). Outcomes and analysis Cumulative pairwise and network meta-analyses were performed for each selected comparison. Monitoring boundaries of statistical significance were constructed and the evidence against the null hypothesis was considered to be strong when the monitoring boundaries were crossed. A significance level was defined as α=5%, power of 90% (β=10%), and an anticipated treatment effect to detect equal to the final estimate from the network meta-analysis. The frequency and time to strong evidence was compared against the null hypothesis between pairwise and network meta-analyses. Results 49 comparisons of interest from 44 networks were included; most (n=39, 80%) were between active drugs, mainly from the specialties of cardiology, endocrinology, psychiatry, and rheumatology. 29 comparisons were informed by both direct and indirect evidence (59%), 13 by indirect evidence (27%), and 7 by direct evidence (14%). Both network and pairwise meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis for seven comparisons, but for an additional 10 comparisons only network meta-analysis provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis (P=0.002). The median time to strong evidence against the null hypothesis was 19 years with living network meta-analysis and 23 years with living pairwise meta-analysis (hazard ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 7.72, P=0.05). Studies directly comparing the treatments of interest continued to be published for eight comparisons after strong evidence had become evident in network meta-analysis. Conclusions In comparative effectiveness research, prospectively planned living network meta-analyses produced strong evidence against the null hypothesis more often and earlier than conventional, pairwise meta-analyses. PMID:29490922

Meta-analyses of Adverse Effects Data Derived from Randomised Controlled Trials as Compared to Observational Studies: Methodological Overview

PubMed Central

Golder, Su; Loke, Yoon K.; Bland, Martin

2011-01-01

Background There is considerable debate as to the relative merits of using randomised controlled trial (RCT) data as opposed to observational data in systematic reviews of adverse effects. This meta-analysis of meta-analyses aimed to assess the level of agreement or disagreement in the estimates of harm derived from meta-analysis of RCTs as compared to meta-analysis of observational studies. Methods and Findings Searches were carried out in ten databases in addition to reference checking, contacting experts, citation searches, and hand-searching key journals, conference proceedings, and Web sites. Studies were included where a pooled relative measure of an adverse effect (odds ratio or risk ratio) from RCTs could be directly compared, using the ratio of odds ratios, with the pooled estimate for the same adverse effect arising from observational studies. Nineteen studies, yielding 58 meta-analyses, were identified for inclusion. The pooled ratio of odds ratios of RCTs compared to observational studies was estimated to be 1.03 (95% confidence interval 0.93–1.15). There was less discrepancy with larger studies. The symmetric funnel plot suggests that there is no consistent difference between risk estimates from meta-analysis of RCT data and those from meta-analysis of observational studies. In almost all instances, the estimates of harm from meta-analyses of the different study designs had 95% confidence intervals that overlapped (54/58, 93%). In terms of statistical significance, in nearly two-thirds (37/58, 64%), the results agreed (both studies showing a significant increase or significant decrease or both showing no significant difference). In only one meta-analysis about one adverse effect was there opposing statistical significance. Conclusions Empirical evidence from this overview indicates that there is no difference on average in the risk estimate of adverse effects of an intervention derived from meta-analyses of RCTs and meta-analyses of observational studies. This suggests that systematic reviews of adverse effects should not be restricted to specific study types. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21559325

Complex self-management interventions in chronic disease unravelled: a review of lessons learned from an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jonkman, Nini H; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Trappenburg, Jaap C A; Hoes, Arno W; Schuurmans, Marieke J

2017-03-01

Meta-analyses using individual patient data (IPD) rather than aggregated data are increasingly applied to analyze sources of heterogeneity between trials and have only recently been applied to unravel multicomponent, complex interventions. This study reflects on methodological challenges encountered in two IPD meta-analyses on self-management interventions in patients with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Critical reflection on prior IPD meta-analyses and discussion of literature. Experience from two IPD meta-analyses illustrates methodological challenges. Despite close collaboration with principal investigators, assessing the effect of characteristics of complex interventions on the outcomes of trials is compromised by lack of sufficient details on intervention characteristics and limited data on fidelity and adherence. Furthermore, trials collected baseline variables in a highly diverse way, limiting the possibilities to study subgroups of patients in a consistent manner. Possible solutions are proposed based on lessons learnt from the methodological challenges. Future researchers of complex interventions should pay considerable attention to the causal mechanism underlying the intervention and conducting process evaluations. Future researchers on IPD meta-analyses of complex interventions should carefully consider their own causal assumptions and availability of required data in eligible trials before undertaking such resource-intensive IPD meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

PubMed

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

How to conduct a qualitative meta-analysis: Tailoring methods to enhance methodological integrity.

PubMed

Levitt, Heidi M

2018-05-01

Although qualitative research has long been of interest in the field of psychology, meta-analyses of qualitative literatures (sometimes called meta-syntheses) are still quite rare. Like quantitative meta-analyses, these methods function to aggregate findings and identify patterns across primary studies, but their aims, procedures, and methodological considerations may vary. This paper explains the function of qualitative meta-analyses and their methodological development. Recommendations have broad relevance but are framed with an eye toward their use in psychotherapy research. Rather than arguing for the adoption of any single meta-method, this paper advocates for considering how procedures can best be selected and adapted to enhance a meta-study's methodological integrity. Through the paper, recommendations are provided to help researchers identify procedures that can best serve their studies' specific goals. Meta-analysts are encouraged to consider the methodological integrity of their studies in relation to central research processes, including identifying a set of primary research studies, transforming primary findings into initial units of data for a meta-analysis, developing categories or themes, and communicating findings. The paper provides guidance for researchers who desire to tailor meta-analytic methods to meet their particular goals while enhancing the rigor of their research.

Treatment strategies for coronary in-stent restenosis: systematic review and hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis of 24 randomised trials and 4880 patients

PubMed Central

Giacoppo, Daniele; Gargiulo, Giuseppe; Aruta, Patrizia; Capranzano, Piera; Tamburino, Corrado

2015-01-01

Study question What is the most safe and effective interventional treatment for coronary in-stent restenosis? Methods In a hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and major scientific websites were screened up to 10 August 2015. Randomised controlled trials of patients with any type of coronary in-stent restenosis (either of bare metal stents or drug eluting stents; and either first or recurrent instances) were included. Trials including multiple treatments at the same time in the same group or comparing variants of the same intervention were excluded. Primary endpoints were target lesion revascularisation and late lumen loss, both at six to 12 months. The main analysis was complemented by network subanalyses, standard pairwise comparisons, and subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Study answer and limitations Twenty four trials (4880 patients), including seven interventional treatments, were identified. Compared with plain balloons, bare metal stents, brachytherapy, rotational atherectomy, and cutting balloons, drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents were associated with a reduced risk of target lesion revascularisation and major adverse cardiac events, and with reduced late lumen loss. Treatment ranking indicated that drug eluting stents had the highest probability (61.4%) of being the most effective for target lesion vascularisation; drug coated balloons were similarly indicated as the most effective treatment for late lumen loss (probability 70.3%). The comparative efficacy of drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents was similar for target lesion revascularisation (summary odds ratio 1.10, 95% credible interval 0.59 to 2.01) and late lumen loss reduction (mean difference in minimum lumen diameter 0.04 mm, 95% credible interval −0.20 to 0.10). Risks of death, myocardial infarction, and stent thrombosis were comparable across all treatments, but these analyses were limited by a low number of events. Trials had heterogeneity regarding investigation periods, baseline characteristics, and endpoint reporting, with a lack of information at long term follow-up. Direct and indirect evidence was also inconsistent for the comparison between drug eluting stents and drug coated balloons. What this study adds Compared with other currently available interventional treatments for coronary in-stent restenosis, drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents are associated with superior clinical and angiographic outcomes, with a similar comparative efficacy. Funding, competing interests, data sharing This study received no external funding. The authors declare no competing interests. No additional data available. PMID:26537292

Comparison of variance estimators for meta-analysis of instrumental variable estimates

PubMed Central

Schmidt, AF; Hingorani, AD; Jefferis, BJ; White, J; Groenwold, RHH; Dudbridge, F

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Mendelian randomization studies perform instrumental variable (IV) analysis using genetic IVs. Results of individual Mendelian randomization studies can be pooled through meta-analysis. We explored how different variance estimators influence the meta-analysed IV estimate. Methods: Two versions of the delta method (IV before or after pooling), four bootstrap estimators, a jack-knife estimator and a heteroscedasticity-consistent (HC) variance estimator were compared using simulation. Two types of meta-analyses were compared, a two-stage meta-analysis pooling results, and a one-stage meta-analysis pooling datasets. Results: Using a two-stage meta-analysis, coverage of the point estimate using bootstrapped estimators deviated from nominal levels at weak instrument settings and/or outcome probabilities ≤ 0.10. The jack-knife estimator was the least biased resampling method, the HC estimator often failed at outcome probabilities ≤ 0.50 and overall the delta method estimators were the least biased. In the presence of between-study heterogeneity, the delta method before meta-analysis performed best. Using a one-stage meta-analysis all methods performed equally well and better than two-stage meta-analysis of greater or equal size. Conclusions: In the presence of between-study heterogeneity, two-stage meta-analyses should preferentially use the delta method before meta-analysis. Weak instrument bias can be reduced by performing a one-stage meta-analysis. PMID:27591262

Rethinking Meta-Analysis: Applications for Air Pollution Data and Beyond

PubMed Central

Goodman, Julie E; Petito Boyce, Catherine; Sax, Sonja N; Beyer, Leslie A; Prueitt, Robyn L

2015-01-01

Meta-analyses offer a rigorous and transparent systematic framework for synthesizing data that can be used for a wide range of research areas, study designs, and data types. Both the outcome of meta-analyses and the meta-analysis process itself can yield useful insights for answering scientific questions and making policy decisions. Development of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards illustrates many potential applications of meta-analysis. These applications demonstrate the strengths and limitations of meta-analysis, issues that arise in various data realms, how meta-analysis design choices can influence interpretation of results, and how meta-analysis can be used to address bias and heterogeneity. Reviewing available data from a meta-analysis perspective can provide a useful framework and impetus for identifying and refining strategies for future research. Moreover, increased pervasiveness of a meta-analysis mindset—focusing on how the pieces of the research puzzle fit together—would benefit scientific research and data syntheses regardless of whether or not a quantitative meta-analysis is undertaken. While an individual meta-analysis can only synthesize studies addressing the same research question, the results of separate meta-analyses can be combined to address a question encompassing multiple data types. This observation applies to any scientific or policy area where information from a variety of disciplines must be considered to address a broader research question. PMID:25969128

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

How to Critically Read Ecological Meta-Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lortie, Christopher J.; Stewart, Gavin; Rothstein, Hannah; Lau, Joseph

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis offers ecologists a powerful tool for knowledge synthesis. Albeit a form of review, it also shares many similarities with primary empirical research. Consequently, critical reading of meta-analyses incorporates criteria from both sets of approaches particularly because ecology is a discipline that embraces heterogeneity and broad…

Insertable cardiac monitors in the diagnosis of syncope and the detection of atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Burkowitz, Jörg; Merzenich, Carina; Grassme, Kathrin; Brüggenjürgen, Bernd

2016-08-01

Insertable or implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) continuously monitor the heart rhythm and record irregularities over 3 years, enabling the diagnosis of infrequent rhythm abnormalities associated with syncope and stroke. The enhanced recognition capabilities of recent ICM models are able to accurately detect atrial fibrillation (AF) and have led to new applications of ICMs for the detection and monitoring of AF. Based on a systematic literature search, two indications were identified for ICMs for which considerable evidence, including randomized studies, exists: diagnosing the underlying cardiac cause of unexplained recurrent syncope and detecting AF in patients after cryptogenic stroke (CS). Three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were identified that compared the effectiveness of ICMs in diagnosing patients with unexplained syncope (n = 556) to standard of care. A meta-analysis was conducted in order to generate an overall effect size and confidence interval of the diagnostic yield of ICMs versus conventional monitoring. In the indication CS, one RCT and five observational studies were included in order to assess the performance of ICMs in diagnosing patients with AF (n = 1129). Based on these studies, there is strong evidence that ICMs provide a higher diagnostic yield for detecting arrhythmias in patients with unexplained syncope and for detection of AF in patients after CS compared to conventional monitoring. Prolonged monitoring with ICMs is an effective tool for diagnosing the underlying cardiac cause of unexplained syncope and for detecting AF in patients with CS. In all RCTs, ICMs have a superior diagnostic yield compared to conventional monitoring. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Interatrial septum versus right atrial appendage pacing for prevention of atrial fibrillation : A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Zhang, L; Jiang, H; Wang, W; Bai, J; Liang, Y; Su, Y; Ge, J

2017-07-28

Interatrial septum (IAS) pacing seems to be a promising strategy for the prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF); however, studies have yielded conflicting results. This meta-analysis was to compare IAS with right atrial appendage (RAA) pacing on the prevention of postpacing AF occurrence. Pubmed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched through October 2016 for randomized controlled trials comparing IAS with RAA pacing on the prevention of AF. Data concerning study design, patient characteristics and outcomes were extracted. Risk ratio (RR), weighted mean differences (WMD) or standardized mean differences (SMD) were calculated using fixed or random effects models. A total of 12 trials involving 1146 patients with dual-chamber pacing were included. Although IAS was superior to RAA pacing in terms of reducing the number of AF episodes (SMD = -0.29, P = 0.05), AF burden (SMD = -0.41, P = 0.008) and P -wave duration (WMD = -34.45 ms, P < 0.0001), neither permanent AF occurrence (RR = 0.94, P = 0.58) nor recurrences of AF (RR = 0.88, P = 0.36) were reduced by IAS pacing. Nevertheless, no differences were observed concerning all-cause death (RR = 1.04, P = 0.88), procedure-related events (RR = 1.17, P = 0.69) and pacing parameters between IAS and RAA pacing in the follow-up period. IAS pacing is safe and as well tolerated as RAA pacing. Although IAS pacing may fail to prevent permanent AF occurrence and recurrences of AF, it is able to not only improve interatrial conduction, but also reduce AF burden.

Are left ventricular ejection fraction and left atrial diameter related to atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation?

PubMed Central

Jin, Xiao; Pan, Jianke; Wu, Huanlin; Xu, Danping

2018-01-01

Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common form of arrhythmia, is associated with the prevalence of many common cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Catheter ablation is considered the first-line therapy for AF; however, AF recurrence is very common after catheter ablation. Studies have been performed to analyze the factors associated with AF recurrence, but none have reached a consistent conclusion on whether left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left atrial diameter (LA diameter) affect AF recurrence after catheter ablation. The databases PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were used to search for relevant studies up to September 2017. RevMan 5.3.5 software provided by the Cochrane Collaboration Network was used to conduct this meta-analysis. Thirteen studies involving 2825 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the results revealed that elevated LA diameter values were significantly associated with AF recurrence in patients after catheter ablation (MD = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.63–2.75, P < .001), while baseline LVEF levels were not significantly positively associated with AF recurrence in patients after catheter ablation (MD = −0.91, 95% CI: −1.18 to 1.67, P = .14). Overall, elevated LA diameter may be associated with AF recurrence after catheter ablation; however, there was no direct relationship between LVEF values and AF recurrence after catheter ablation when baseline LVEF values are normal or mildly decreased. Besides, because of publication bias, further studies should be performed to explore the mechanisms underlying AF recurrence. PMID:29768386

Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale versus Medical Therapy after Cryptogenic Stroke: Meta-Analysis of Five Randomized Controlled Trials with 3440 Patients

PubMed Central

Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros Oliveira; de Oliveira Neto, Luiz de Albuquerque Pereira; do Nascimento, Gabriella Caroline Sales; Vieira, Erik Everton da Silva; Martins, Gabriel Lopes; Rodrigues, Karine Coelho; Nascimento, Giulia Cioffi; de Menezes, Alexandre Motta; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Silva, Frederico Pires Vasconcelos; Lima, Ricardo Carvalho

2018-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine whether patent foramen ovale closure reduces the risk of stroke, also assessing some safety outcomes. Introduction The clinical benefit of closing a patent foramen ovale after a cryptogenic stroke has been an open question for several decades, so that it is necessary to review the current state of published medical data in this regard. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL/CCTR, SciELO, LI-LACS, Google Scholar and reference lists of relevant articles were searched for randomized controlled trials that reported any of the following outcomes: stroke, death, major bleeding or atrial fibrillation. Five studies fulfilled our eligibility criteria and included 3440 patients (1829 for patent foramen ovale closure and 1611 for medical therapy). Results The risk ratio (RR) for stroke in the "device closure" group compared with the "medical therapy" showed a statistically significant difference between the groups, favouring the "device closure" group (RR 0.400; 95% CI 0.183-0.873, P=0.021). There was no statistically significant difference between the groups regarding the safety outcomes death and major bleeding, but we observed an increase in the risk of atrial fibrillation in the "device closure group (RR 4.000; 95% CI 2.262-7.092, P<0.001). We also observed that the larger the proportion of effective closure, the lower the risk of stroke. Conclusion This meta-analysis found that stroke rates are lower with percutaneously implanted device closure than with medical therapy alone, being these rates modulated by the rates of effective closure. PMID:29617507

Material Properties of the Posterior Human Sclera☆

PubMed Central

Grytz, Rafael; Fazio, Massimo A.; Girard, Michael J.A.; Libertiaux, Vincent; Bruno, Luigi; Gardiner, Stuart; Girkin, Christopher A.; Downs, J. Crawford

2013-01-01

To characterize the material properties of posterior and peripapillary sclera from human donors, and to investigate the macro- and micro-scale strains as potential control mechanisms governing mechanical homeostasis. Posterior scleral shells from 9 human donors aged 57–90 years were subjected to IOP elevations from 5 to 45 mmHg and the resulting full-field displacements were recorded using laser speckle interferometry. Eye-specific finite element models were generated based on experimentally measured scleral shell surface geometry and thickness. Inverse numerical analyses were performed to identify material parameters for each eye by matching experimental deformation measurements to model predictions using a microstructure-based constitutive formulation that incorporates the crimp response and anisotropic architecture of scleral collagen fibrils. The material property fitting produced models that fit both the overall and local deformation responses of posterior scleral shells very well. The nonlinear stiffening of the sclera with increasing IOP was well reproduced by the uncrimping of scleral collagen fibrils, and a circumferentially-aligned ring of collagen fibrils around the scleral canal was predicted in all eyes. Macroscopic in-plane strains were significantly higher in peripapillary region then in the mid-periphery. In contrast, the meso- and micro-scale strains at the collagen network and collagen fibril level were not significantly different between regions. The elastic response of the posterior human sclera can be characterized by the anisotropic architecture and crimp response of scleral collagen fibrils. The similar collagen fibril strains in the peripapillary and mid-peripheral regions support the notion that the scleral collagen architecture including the circumpapillary ring of collagen fibrils evolved to establish optimal load bearing conditions at the collagen fibril level. PMID:23684352

Detection of occult paroxysmal atrial fibrilation by implantable long-term electrocardiographic monitoring in cryptogenic stroke and transient ischemic attack population: a study protocol for prospective matched cohort study.

PubMed

Petrovičová, Andrea; Kurča, Egon; Brozman, Miroslav; Hasilla, Jozef; Vahala, Pavel; Blaško, Peter; Andrášová, Andrea; Hatala, Robert; Urban, Luboš; Sivák, Štefan

2015-12-03

Cardio-embolic etiology is the most frequently predicted cause of cryptogenic stroke/TIA. Detection of occult paroxysmal atrial fibrillation is crucial for selection of appropriate medication. Enrolment of eligible cryptogenic stroke and TIA patients began in 2014 and will continue until 2018. The patients undergo long-term (12 months) ECG monitoring (implantable loop recorder) and testing for PITX2 (chromosome 4q25) and ZFHX3 (chromosome 16q22) gene mutations. There will be an appropriate control group of age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers. To analyse the results descriptive statistics, statistical tests for group differences, and correlation analyses will be used. In our study we are focusing on a possible correlation between detection of atrial fibrillation by an implantable ECG recorder, and PITX2 and/or ZFHX3 gene mutations in cryptogenic stroke/TIA patients. A correlation could lead to implementation of this genomic approach to cryptogenic stroke/TIA diagnostics and management. The results will be published in 2018. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02216370 .

Macroscopic Neural Theories of Cognition

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

Autobiographical Memory -- 51% • Emotional Face Processing -- 14% • Single Word Reading -- 45% • N-Back Working Memory – 41% 22 A graphic comparison of...seven meta-analyses carried out for working memory is shown in Table 2. The results of this comparison were also clear—there was substantial...variation among the areas reported by the seven meta-analyses. Table 2. A Comparison of Seven Meta-analyses dealing with Working Memory . (Uttal, 2013

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

PubMed

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exercise therapy for functional capacity in chronic diseases: an overview of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Pasanen, Tero; Tolvanen, Samppa; Heinonen, Ari; Kujala, Urho M

2017-10-01

To summarise all meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials that have evaluated the effects of exercise therapy on functional capacity in patients with chronic diseases. Umbrella review of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. We systematically searched the CENTRAL, CINAHL, DARE, Medline, OTSeeker, PEDro, SPORTDiscus, ProQuest Nursing & Allied Health Database, Web of Science, Scopus, OpenGrey and BMC Proceedings from database inception to 1 September 2016. We included meta-analyses that compared the effects of exercise therapy with no treatment or usual care in adults with non-communicable chronic diseases and included outcomes related to functional capacity. We excluded meta-analyses with less than 100 patients. Eighty-five meta-analyses with 22 different chronic diseases were included. The exercise interventions resulted in statistically significant (p<0.05) improvements for 126 of 146 (86%) functional capacity outcomes, compared with the control group. The standardised mean differences were small in 64 (44%), moderate in 54 (37%) and large in 28 (19%) of the 146 functional capacity outcomes. The results were similar for aerobic exercise, resistance training, and aerobic and resistance training combined. There were no significant differences in serious adverse effects between the intervention and control groups in any of the meta-analyses. Exercise therapy appears to be a safe way to improve functional capacity and reduce disability in individuals with chronic disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Quantitative methods for structural characterization of proteins based on deep UV resonance Raman spectroscopy.

PubMed

Shashilov, Victor A; Sikirzhytski, Vitali; Popova, Ludmila A; Lednev, Igor K

2010-09-01

Here we report on novel quantitative approaches for protein structural characterization using deep UV resonance Raman (DUVRR) spectroscopy. Specifically, we propose a new method combining hydrogen-deuterium (HD) exchange and Bayesian source separation for extracting the DUVRR signatures of various structural elements of aggregated proteins including the cross-beta core and unordered parts of amyloid fibrils. The proposed method is demonstrated using the set of DUVRR spectra of hen egg white lysozyme acquired at various stages of HD exchange. Prior information about the concentration matrix and the spectral features of the individual components was incorporated into the Bayesian equation to eliminate the ill-conditioning of the problem caused by 100% correlation of the concentration profiles of protonated and deuterated species. Secondary structure fractions obtained by partial least squares (PLS) and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) were used as the initial guess for the Bayessian source separation. Advantages of the PLS and LS-SVMs methods over the classical least squares calibration (CLSC) are discussed and illustrated using the DUVRR data of the prion protein in its native and aggregated forms. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypnotic Enhancement of Cognitive-Behavioral Weight Loss Treatments--Another Meta-reanalysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirsch, Irving

1996-01-01

In a meta-analysis of the effect of adding hypnosis to cognitive-behavioral treatments for weight reduction, additional data were obtained from authors of two previous studies, and computational inaccuracies in the previous meta-analyses were corrected. Discusses findings. Correlational analyses indicated that the benefits of hypnosis increased…

Pathfinding to an optimal strategy of revascularization in primary coronary intervention in patients with multivessel disease: a network meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Komócsi, András; Kehl, Dániel; d'Ascenso, Fabrizio; DiNicolantonio, James; Vorobcsuk, András

2017-03-01

In ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), current guidelines discourage treatment of the non-culprit lesions at the time of the primary intervention. Latest trials have challenged this strategy suggesting benefit of early complete revascularization. We performed a Bayesian multiple treatment network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in STEMI on culprit-only intervention (CO) versus different timing multivessel revascularization, including immediate (IM), same hospitalization (SH) or later staged (ST). Outcome parameters were pooled with a random-effects model. For multiple-treatment meta-analysis, a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method was used. Eight RCTs involving 2077 patients were identified. ST and IM revascularization was associated with a decrease in major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) compared to culprit-only approach (risk ratio [RR]: 0.43 credible interval [CrI]: 0.22-0.77 and RR: 0.36 CrI: 0.24-0.54, respectively). IM was superior to SH (RR: 0.49 CrI: 0.29-0.80). With regards to myocardial infarction IM was superior to SH (RR: 0.18 CrI: 0.02-0.99). The posterior probability of being the best choice of treatment regarding the frequency of MACEs was 71.2% for IM, 28.5% for ST, 0.3% for SH and 0.05% for culprit-only approach. Results from RCTs indicate that immediate or staged revascularization of non-culprit lesions reduces major adverse events in patients after primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Differences in MACEs suggest superiority of the immediate or staged intervention; however, further randomized trials are needed to determine the optimal timing of revascularization of the non-culprit lesions.

Prokinetics for the treatment of functional dyspepsia: Bayesian network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Young Joo; Bang, Chang Seok; Baik, Gwang Ho; Park, Tae Young; Shin, Suk Pyo; Suk, Ki Tae; Kim, Dong Joon

2017-06-26

Controversies persist regarding the effect of prokinetics for the treatment of functional dyspepsia (FD). This study aimed to assess the comparative efficacy of prokinetic agents for the treatment of FD. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of prokinetics for the treatment of FD were identified from core databases. Symptom response rates were extracted and analyzed using odds ratios (ORs). A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in WinBUGS and NetMetaXL. In total, 25 RCTs, which included 4473 patients with FD who were treated with 6 different prokinetics or placebo, were identified and analyzed. Metoclopramide showed the best surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability (92.5%), followed by trimebutine (74.5%) and mosapride (63.3%). However, the therapeutic efficacy of metoclopramide was not significantly different from that of trimebutine (OR:1.32, 95% credible interval: 0.27-6.06), mosapride (OR: 1.99, 95% credible interval: 0.87-4.72), or domperidone (OR: 2.04, 95% credible interval: 0.92-4.60). Metoclopramide showed better efficacy than itopride (OR: 2.79, 95% credible interval: 1.29-6.21) and acotiamide (OR: 3.07, 95% credible interval: 1.43-6.75). Domperidone (SUCRA probability 62.9%) showed better efficacy than itopride (OR: 1.37, 95% credible interval: 1.07-1.77) and acotiamide (OR: 1.51, 95% credible interval: 1.04-2.18). Metoclopramide, trimebutine, mosapride, and domperidone showed better efficacy for the treatment of FD than itopride or acotiamide. Considering the adverse events related to metoclopramide or domperidone, the short-term use of these agents or the alternative use of trimebutine or mosapride could be recommended for the symptomatic relief of FD.

Fast genomic predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and multilocus models of threshold traits including censored Gaussian data.

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2013-09-04

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed.

Fast Genomic Predictions via Bayesian G-BLUP and Multilocus Models of Threshold Traits Including Censored Gaussian Data

PubMed Central

Kärkkäinen, Hanni P.; Sillanpää, Mikko J.

2013-01-01

Because of the increased availability of genome-wide sets of molecular markers along with reduced cost of genotyping large samples of individuals, genomic estimated breeding values have become an essential resource in plant and animal breeding. Bayesian methods for breeding value estimation have proven to be accurate and efficient; however, the ever-increasing data sets are placing heavy demands on the parameter estimation algorithms. Although a commendable number of fast estimation algorithms are available for Bayesian models of continuous Gaussian traits, there is a shortage for corresponding models of discrete or censored phenotypes. In this work, we consider a threshold approach of binary, ordinal, and censored Gaussian observations for Bayesian multilocus association models and Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction and present a high-speed generalized expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation under these models. We demonstrate our method with simulated and real data. Our example analyses suggest that the use of the extra information present in an ordered categorical or censored Gaussian data set, instead of dichotomizing the data into case-control observations, increases the accuracy of genomic breeding values predicted by Bayesian multilocus association models or by Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased prediction. Furthermore, the example analyses indicate that the correct threshold model is more accurate than the directly used Gaussian model with a censored Gaussian data, while with a binary or an ordinal data the superiority of the threshold model could not be confirmed. PMID:23821618

Race and diurnal blood pressure patterns. A review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Profant, J; Dimsdale, J E

1999-05-01

Investigators have reported variable findings regarding the role of race in diurnal blood pressure patterns. We performed a review and meta-analysis of this literature to identify the overall effect of race on circadian blood pressure patterns. Eighteen studies involving 2852 participants were reviewed. Meta-analyses were conducted using effect sizes calculated from the data provided directly in the study reports. Separate meta-analyses were conducted on effect sizes for differences between blacks and whites in daytime and nighttime systolic and diastolic blood pressure and nocturnal dip in systolic and diastolic blood pressure. To evaluate discrepancies in findings from studies involving American versus non-American blacks, overall meta-analyses as well as within-subset meta-analyses of black/white differences were conducted for comparisons involving American and non-American blacks. Results of overall meta-analyses indicate that blacks experience higher levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, both at night and during the day. These differences were significantly greater at night than during the day (P<0.05). Results of within-subset analyses involving American blacks mirrored those for all black/white comparisons, except that the effect of race on nocturnal dip, ie, that American blacks experienced less of a dip in both systolic and diastolic blood pressure at night, was significant (P<0.05). In contrast, the effect of race on nocturnal dip was not significant for comparisons involving non-American blacks. These results suggest a consistent difference in the chronobiology of blood pressure, particularly in American blacks.

The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate healthcare interventions: explanation and elaboration

PubMed Central

Liberati, Alessandro; Altman, Douglas G; Tetzlaff, Jennifer; Mulrow, Cynthia; Gøtzsche, Peter C; Ioannidis, John P A; Clarke, Mike; Devereaux, P J; Kleijnen, Jos; Moher, David

2009-01-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential to summarise evidence relating to efficacy and safety of healthcare interventions accurately and reliably. The clarity and transparency of these reports, however, are not optimal. Poor reporting of systematic reviews diminishes their value to clinicians, policy makers, and other users. Since the development of the QUOROM (quality of reporting of meta-analysis) statement—a reporting guideline published in 1999—there have been several conceptual, methodological, and practical advances regarding the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Also, reviews of published systematic reviews have found that key information about these studies is often poorly reported. Realising these issues, an international group that included experienced authors and methodologists developed PRISMA (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses) as an evolution of the original QUOROM guideline for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of evaluations of health care interventions. The PRISMA statement consists of a 27-item checklist and a four-phase flow diagram. The checklist includes items deemed essential for transparent reporting of a systematic review. In this explanation and elaboration document, we explain the meaning and rationale for each checklist item. For each item, we include an example of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature. The PRISMA statement, this document, and the associated website (www.prisma-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. PMID:19622552

The Bayesian approach to reporting GSR analysis results: some first-hand experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, Sebastien; Nys, Bart

2010-06-01

The use of Bayesian principles in the reporting of forensic findings has been a matter of interest for some years. Recently, also the GSR community is gradually exploring the advantages of this method, or rather approach, for writing reports. Since last year, our GSR group is adapting reporting procedures to the use of Bayesian principles. The police and magistrates find the reports more directly accessible and useful in their part of the criminal investigation. In the lab we find that, through applying the Bayesian principles, unnecessary analyses can be eliminated and thus time can be freed on the instruments.

Bacoside-A, an Indian Traditional-Medicine Substance, Inhibits β-Amyloid Cytotoxicity, Fibrillation, and Membrane Interactions.

PubMed

Malishev, Ravit; Shaham-Niv, Shira; Nandi, Sukhendu; Kolusheva, Sofiya; Gazit, Ehud; Jelinek, Raz

2017-04-19

Bacoside-A, a family of compounds extracted from the Bacopa monniera plant, is a folk-medicinal substance believed to exhibit therapeutic properties, particularly enhancing cognitive functions and improving memory. We show that bacoside-A exerted significant inhibitory effects upon cytotoxicity, fibrillation, and particularly membrane interactions of amyloid-beta (1-42) (Aβ42), the peptide playing a prominent role in Alzeheimer's disease progression and toxicity. Specifically, preincubation of bacoside-A with Aβ42 significantly reduced cell toxicity and inhibited fibril formation both in buffer solution and, more significantly, in the presence of membrane vesicles. In parallel, spectroscopic and microscopic analyses reveal that bacoside-A blocked membrane interactions of Aβ42, while formation of Aβ42 oligomers was not disrupted. These interesting phenomena suggest that inhibition of Aβ42 oligomer assembly into mature fibrils, and blocking membrane interactions of the oligomers are likely the underlying factors for ameliorating amyloid toxicity by bacoside-A and its putative physiological benefits.

Meta-synthesis of health behavior change meta-analyses.

PubMed

Johnson, Blair T; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J; Carey, Michael P

2010-11-01

We integrated and compared meta-analytic findings across diverse behavioral interventions to characterize how well they have achieved change in health behavior. Outcomes from 62 meta-analyses of interventions for change in health behavior were quantitatively synthesized, including 1011 primary-level investigations with 599,559 participants. Content coding suggested 6 behavioral domains: eating and physical activity, sexual behavior, addictive behaviors, stress management, female-specific screening and intervention behaviors, and behaviors involving use of health services. Behavior change interventions were efficacious (mean effect sizes = 0.08-0.45). Behavior change was more evident in more recent meta-analyses; those that sampled older interventions and literatures or sampled more published articles; those that included studies that relied on self-report, used briefer interventions, or sampled fewer, older, or female participants; and in some domains (e.g., stress management) more than others (e.g., sexual behaviors). Interventions improved health-related behaviors; however, efficacy varied as a function of participant and intervention characteristics. This meta-synthesis provides information about the efficacy of behavioral change interventions across health domains and populations; this knowledge can inform the design and development of public health interventions and future meta-analyses of these studies.

From Fibrils to Toughness: Multi-Scale Mechanics of Fibrillating Interfaces in Stretchable Electronics

PubMed Central

van der Sluis, Olaf; Vossen, Bart; Geers, Marc

2018-01-01

Metal-elastomer interfacial systems, often encountered in stretchable electronics, demonstrate remarkably high interface fracture toughness values. Evidently, a large gap exists between the rather small adhesion energy levels at the microscopic scale (‘intrinsic adhesion’) and the large measured macroscopic work-of-separation. This energy gap is closed here by unravelling the underlying dissipative mechanisms through a systematic numerical/experimental multi-scale approach. This self-containing contribution collects and reviews previously published results and addresses the remaining open questions by providing new and independent results obtained from an alternative experimental set-up. In particular, the experimental studies on Cu-PDMS (Poly(dimethylsiloxane)) samples conclusively reveal the essential role of fibrillation mechanisms at the micro-meter scale during the metal-elastomer delamination process. The micro-scale numerical analyses on single and multiple fibrils show that the dynamic release of the stored elastic energy by multiple fibril fracture, including the interaction with the adjacent deforming bulk PDMS and its highly nonlinear behaviour, provide a mechanistic understanding of the high work-of-separation. An experimentally validated quantitative relation between the macroscopic work-of-separation and peel front height is established from the simulation results. Finally, it is shown that a micro-mechanically motivated shape of the traction-separation law in cohesive zone models is essential to describe the delamination process in fibrillating metal-elastomer systems in a physically meaningful way. PMID:29393908

Restoration of high-resolution AFM images captured with broken probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. F.; Corrigan, D.; Forman, C.; Jarvis, S.; Kokaram, A.

2012-03-01

A type of artefact is induced by damage of the scanning probe when the Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) captures a material surface structure with nanoscale resolution. This artefact has a dramatic form of distortion rather than the traditional blurring artefacts. Practically, it is not easy to prevent the damage of the scanning probe. However, by using natural image deblurring techniques in image processing domain, a comparatively reliable estimation of the real sample surface structure can be generated. This paper introduces a novel Hough Transform technique as well as a Bayesian deblurring algorithm to remove this type of artefact. The deblurring result is successful at removing blur artefacts in the AFM artefact images. And the details of the fibril surface topography are well preserved.

Comparative efficacy and safety of first-line antiretroviral therapy for the treatment of HIV infection: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kanters, Steve; Vitoria, Marco; Doherty, Meg; Socias, Maria Eugenia; Ford, Nathan; Forrest, Jamie I; Popoff, Evan; Bansback, Nick; Nsanzimana, Sabin; Thorlund, Kristian; Mills, Edward J

2016-11-01

New antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens for HIV could improve clinical outcomes for patients. To inform global guidelines, we aimed to assess the comparative effectiveness of recommended ART regimens for HIV in ART-naive patients. For this systematic review and network meta-analysis, we searched for randomised clinical trials published up to July 5, 2015, comparing recommended antiretroviral regimens in treatment-naive adults and adolescents (aged 12 years or older) with HIV. We extracted data on trial and patient characteristics, and the following primary outcomes: viral suppression, mortality, AIDS defining illnesses, discontinuations, discontinuations due to adverse events, and serious adverse events. We synthesised data using network meta-analyses in a Bayesian framework and included older treatments, such as indinavir, to serve as connecting nodes. We defined network nodes in terms of specific antivirals rather than specific ART regimens. We categorised backbone regimens and adjusted for them through group-specific meta-regression. We used the GRADE framework to interpret the strength of inference. We identified 5865 citations through database searches and other sources, of which, 126 articles related to 71 unique trials were included in the network analysis, including 34 032 patients randomly assigned to 161 treatment groups. For viral suppression at 48 weeks, compared with efavirenz, the odds ratio (OR) for viral suppression was 1·87 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·34-2·64) with dolutegravir and 1·40 (1·02-1·96) with raltegravir; with respect to viral suppression, low-dose efavirenz was similar to all other treatments. Both low-dose efavirenz and integrase strand transfer inhibitors tended to be protective of discontinuations due to adverse events relative to normal-dose efavirenz. The most protective effect relative to efavirenz in network meta-analyses was that of dolutegravir (OR 0·26, 95% CrI 0·14-0·47), followed by low-dose efavirenz (0·39, 0·16-0·92). Owing to insufficient data, we could make no conclusions about serious adverse events. Low event rates also limited the quality of evidence with regard to mortality and AIDS defining illnesses. The efficacy and safety of ART has substantially improved with the introduction of newer drug classes of antiretrovirals that are now available to patients and HIV care providers. Their improved tolerance could be part of a larger solution to improve retention, which is a challenge, particularly in low-income and middle-income country settings. The World Health Organization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of methods used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Adverse consequences of medical interventions are a source of concern, but clinical trials may lack power to detect elevated rates of such events, while observational studies have inherent limitations. Meta-analysis allows the combination of individual studies, which can increase power and provide stronger evidence relating to adverse events. However, meta-analysis of adverse events has associated methodological challenges. The aim of this study was to systematically identify and review the methodology used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event, following a therapeutic intervention. Methods Using a collection of reviews identified previously, 166 references including a meta-analysis were selected for review. At least one of the primary outcomes in each review was an adverse or unintended event. The nature of the intervention, source of funding, number of individual meta-analyses performed, number of primary studies included in the review, and use of meta-analytic methods were all recorded. Specific areas of interest relating to the methods used included the choice of outcome metric, methods of dealing with sparse events, heterogeneity, publication bias and use of individual patient data. Results The 166 included reviews were published between 1994 and 2006. Interventions included drugs and surgery among other interventions. Many of the references being reviewed included multiple meta-analyses with 44.6% (74/166) including more than ten. Randomised trials only were included in 42.2% of meta-analyses (70/166), observational studies only in 33.7% (56/166) and a mix of observational studies and trials in 15.7% (26/166). Sparse data, in the form of zero events in one or both arms where the outcome was a count of events, was found in 64 reviews of two-arm studies, of which 41 (64.1%) had zero events in both arms. Conclusions Meta-analyses of adverse events data are common and useful in terms of increasing the power to detect an association with an intervention, especially when the events are infrequent. However, with regard to existing meta-analyses, a wide variety of different methods have been employed, often with no evident rationale for using a particular approach. More specifically, the approach to dealing with zero events varies, and guidelines on this issue would be desirable. PMID:22553987

Meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials in the era of individual patient data sharing.

PubMed

Kawahara, Takuya; Fukuda, Musashi; Oba, Koji; Sakamoto, Junichi; Buyse, Marc

2018-06-01

Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis is considered to be a gold standard when the results of several randomized trials are combined. Recent initiatives on sharing IPD from clinical trials offer unprecedented opportunities for using such data in IPD meta-analyses. First, we discuss the evidence generated and the benefits obtained by a long-established prospective IPD meta-analysis in early breast cancer. Next, we discuss a data-sharing system that has been adopted by several pharmaceutical sponsors. We review a number of retrospective IPD meta-analyses that have already been proposed using this data-sharing system. Finally, we discuss the role of data sharing in IPD meta-analysis in the future. Treatment effects can be more reliably estimated in both types of IPD meta-analyses than with summary statistics extracted from published papers. Specifically, with rich covariate information available on each patient, prognostic and predictive factors can be identified or confirmed. Also, when several endpoints are available, surrogate endpoints can be assessed statistically. Although there are difficulties in conducting, analyzing, and interpreting retrospective IPD meta-analysis utilizing the currently available data-sharing systems, data sharing will play an important role in IPD meta-analysis in the future.

Application of machine learning techniques to analyse the effects of physical exercise in ventricular fibrillation.

PubMed

Caravaca, Juan; Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Bataller, Manuel; Serrano, Antonio J; Such-Miquel, Luis; Vila-Francés, Joan; Guerrero, Juan F

2014-02-01

This work presents the application of machine learning techniques to analyse the influence of physical exercise in the physiological properties of the heart, during ventricular fibrillation. To this end, different kinds of classifiers (linear and neural models) are used to classify between trained and sedentary rabbit hearts. The use of those classifiers in combination with a wrapper feature selection algorithm allows to extract knowledge about the most relevant features in the problem. The obtained results show that neural models outperform linear classifiers (better performance indices and a better dimensionality reduction). The most relevant features to describe the benefits of physical exercise are those related to myocardial heterogeneity, mean activation rate and activation complexity. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

What One Hundred Years of Research Says about the Effects of Ability Grouping and Acceleration on K-12 Students' Academic Achievement: Findings of Two Second-Order Meta-Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steenbergen-Hu, Saiying; Makel, Matthew C.; Olszewski-Kubilius, Paula

2016-01-01

Two second-order meta-analyses synthesized approximately 100 years of research on the effects of ability grouping and acceleration on K-12 students' academic achievement. Outcomes of 13 ability grouping meta-analyses showed that students benefited from within-class grouping (0.19 = g = 0.30), cross-grade subject grouping (g = 0.26), and special…

A systematic meta-review of evaluations of youth violence prevention programs: Common and divergent findings from 25 years of meta-analyses and systematic reviews☆

PubMed Central

Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Vivolo-Kantor, Alana M.; Massetti, Greta M.; Holland, Kristin M.; Holt, Melissa K.; Cruz, Jason Dela

2018-01-01

Violence among youth is a pervasive public health problem. In order to make progress in reducing the burden of injury and mortality that result from youth violence, it is imperative to identify evidence-based programs and strategies that have a significant impact on violence. There have been many rigorous evaluations of youth violence prevention programs. However, the literature is large, and it is difficult to draw conclusions about what works across evaluations from different disciplines, contexts, and types of programs. The current study reviews the meta-analyses and systematic reviews published prior to 2009 that synthesize evaluations of youth violence prevention programs. This meta-review reports the findings from 37 meta-analyses and 15 systematic reviews; the included reviews were coded on measures of the social ecology, prevention approach, program type, and study design. A majority of the meta-analyses and systematic reviews were found to demonstrate moderate program effects. Meta-analyses yielded marginally smaller effect sizes compared to systematic reviews, and those that included programs targeting family factors showed marginally larger effects than those that did not. In addition, there are a wide range of individual/family, program, and study moderators of program effect sizes. Implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:29503594

The Success of Linear Bootstrapping Models: Decision Domain-, Expertise-, and Criterion-Specific Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Esther; Wittmann, Werner W.

2016-01-01

The success of bootstrapping or replacing a human judge with a model (e.g., an equation) has been demonstrated in Paul Meehl’s (1954) seminal work and bolstered by the results of several meta-analyses. To date, however, analyses considering different types of meta-analyses as well as the potential dependence of bootstrapping success on the decision domain, the level of expertise of the human judge, and the criterion for what constitutes an accurate decision have been missing from the literature. In this study, we addressed these research gaps by conducting a meta-analysis of lens model studies. We compared the results of a traditional (bare-bones) meta-analysis with findings of a meta-analysis of the success of bootstrap models corrected for various methodological artifacts. In line with previous studies, we found that bootstrapping was more successful than human judgment. Furthermore, bootstrapping was more successful in studies with an objective decision criterion than in studies with subjective or test score criteria. We did not find clear evidence that the success of bootstrapping depended on the decision domain (e.g., education or medicine) or on the judge’s level of expertise (novice or expert). Correction of methodological artifacts increased the estimated success of bootstrapping, suggesting that previous analyses without artifact correction (i.e., traditional meta-analyses) may have underestimated the value of bootstrapping models. PMID:27327085

Long-chain n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of atrial fibrillation: Results from a Danish cohort study.

PubMed

Mortensen, Lotte Maxild; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Schmidt, Erik Berg; Calder, Philip C; Schierup, Mikkel Heide; Tjønneland, Anne; Parner, Erik T; Overvad, Kim

2017-01-01

Studies of the relation between polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of atrial fibrillation have been inconclusive. The risk of atrial fibrillation may depend on the interaction between n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids as both types of fatty acids are involved in the regulation of systemic inflammation. We investigated the association between dietary intake of long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (individually and in combination) and the risk of atrial fibrillation with focus on potential interaction between the two types of polyunsaturated fatty acids. The risk of atrial fibrillation in the Diet, Cancer and Health Cohort was analyzed using the pseudo-observation method to explore cumulative risks on an additive scale providing risk differences. Dietary intake of long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids was assessed by food frequency questionnaires. The main analyses were adjusted for the dietary intake of n-3 α-linolenic acid and n-6 linoleic acid to account for endogenous synthesis of long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids. Interaction was assessed as deviation from additivity of absolute association measures (risk differences). Cumulative risks in 15-year age periods were estimated in three strata of the cohort (N = 54,737). No associations between intake of n-3 or n-6 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and atrial fibrillation were found, neither when analyzed separately as primary exposures nor when interaction between n-3 and n-6 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids was explored. This study suggests no association between intake of long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of atrial fibrillation.

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Machine learning approaches to analysing textual injury surveillance data: a systematic review.

PubMed

Vallmuur, Kirsten

2015-06-01

To synthesise recent research on the use of machine learning approaches to mining textual injury surveillance data. Systematic review. The electronic databases which were searched included PubMed, Cinahl, Medline, Google Scholar, and Proquest. The bibliography of all relevant articles was examined and associated articles were identified using a snowballing technique. For inclusion, articles were required to meet the following criteria: (a) used a health-related database, (b) focused on injury-related cases, AND used machine learning approaches to analyse textual data. The papers identified through the search were screened resulting in 16 papers selected for review. Articles were reviewed to describe the databases and methodology used, the strength and limitations of different techniques, and quality assurance approaches used. Due to heterogeneity between studies meta-analysis was not performed. Occupational injuries were the focus of half of the machine learning studies and the most common methods described were Bayesian probability or Bayesian network based methods to either predict injury categories or extract common injury scenarios. Models were evaluated through either comparison with gold standard data or content expert evaluation or statistical measures of quality. Machine learning was found to provide high precision and accuracy when predicting a small number of categories, was valuable for visualisation of injury patterns and prediction of future outcomes. However, difficulties related to generalizability, source data quality, complexity of models and integration of content and technical knowledge were discussed. The use of narrative text for injury surveillance has grown in popularity, complexity and quality over recent years. With advances in data mining techniques, increased capacity for analysis of large databases, and involvement of computer scientists in the injury prevention field, along with more comprehensive use and description of quality assurance methods in text mining approaches, it is likely that we will see a continued growth and advancement in knowledge of text mining in the injury field. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian network meta-analysis for cluster randomized trials with binary outcomes.

PubMed

Uhlmann, Lorenz; Jensen, Katrin; Kieser, Meinhard

2017-06-01

Network meta-analysis is becoming a common approach to combine direct and indirect comparisons of several treatment arms. In recent research, there have been various developments and extensions of the standard methodology. Simultaneously, cluster randomized trials are experiencing an increased popularity, especially in the field of health services research, where, for example, medical practices are the units of randomization but the outcome is measured at the patient level. Combination of the results of cluster randomized trials is challenging. In this tutorial, we examine and compare different approaches for the incorporation of cluster randomized trials in a (network) meta-analysis. Furthermore, we provide practical insight on the implementation of the models. In simulation studies, it is shown that some of the examined approaches lead to unsatisfying results. However, there are alternatives which are suitable to combine cluster randomized trials in a network meta-analysis as they are unbiased and reach accurate coverage rates. In conclusion, the methodology can be extended in such a way that an adequate inclusion of the results obtained in cluster randomized trials becomes feasible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Working memory training in healthy young adults: Support for the null from a randomized comparison to active and passive control groups.

PubMed

Clark, Cameron M; Lawlor-Savage, Linette; Goghari, Vina M

2017-01-01

Training of working memory as a method of increasing working memory capacity and fluid intelligence has received much attention in recent years. This burgeoning field remains highly controversial with empirically-backed disagreements at all levels of evidence, including individual studies, systematic reviews, and even meta-analyses. The current study investigated the effect of a randomized six week online working memory intervention on untrained cognitive abilities in a community-recruited sample of healthy young adults, in relation to both a processing speed training active control condition, as well as a no-contact control condition. Results of traditional null hypothesis significance testing, as well as Bayesian factor analyses, revealed support for the null hypothesis across all cognitive tests administered before and after training. Importantly, all three groups were similar at pre-training for a variety of individual variables purported to moderate transfer of training to fluid intelligence, including personality traits, motivation to train, and expectations of cognitive improvement from training. Because these results are consistent with experimental trials of equal or greater methodological rigor, we suggest that future research re-focus on: 1) other promising interventions known to increase memory performance in healthy young adults, and; 2) examining sub-populations or alternative populations in which working memory training may be efficacious.

Reporting and methodological quality of meta-analyses in urological literature.

PubMed

Xia, Leilei; Xu, Jing; Guzzo, Thomas J

2017-01-01

To assess the overall quality of published urological meta-analyses and identify predictive factors for high quality. We systematically searched PubMed to identify meta-analyses published from January 1st, 2011 to December 31st, 2015 in 10 predetermined major paper-based urology journals. The characteristics of the included meta-analyses were collected, and their reporting and methodological qualities were assessed by the PRISMA checklist (27 items) and AMSTAR tool (11 items), respectively. Descriptive statistics were used for individual items as a measure of overall compliance, and PRISMA and AMSTAR scores were calculated as the sum of adequately reported domains. Logistic regression was used to identify predictive factors for high qualities. A total of 183 meta-analyses were included. The mean PRISMA and AMSTAR scores were 22.74 ± 2.04 and 7.57 ± 1.41, respectively. PRISMA item 5, protocol and registration, items 15 and 22, risk of bias across studies, items 16 and 23, additional analysis had less than 50% adherence. AMSTAR item 1, " a priori " design, item 5, list of studies and item 10, publication bias had less than 50% adherence. Logistic regression analyses showed that funding support and " a priori " design were associated with superior reporting quality, following PRISMA guideline and " a priori " design were associated with superior methodological quality. Reporting and methodological qualities of recently published meta-analyses in major paper-based urology journals are generally good. Further improvement could potentially be achieved by strictly adhering to PRISMA guideline and having " a priori " protocol.

Effectiveness of wearable defibrillators: systematic review and quality of evidence.

PubMed

Uyei, Jennifer; Braithwaite, R Scott

2014-04-01

The objectives of this systematic literature review were to identify all published literature on wearable defibrillators, assess the wearable defibrillator's efficacy and effectiveness in general and among specific patient groups, including post-myocardial infarction, post coronary artery bypass grafting or percutaneous coronary intervention, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy, and to evaluate the quality of evidence. The search and synthesis was informed by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement, and the quality of evidence was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. A total of thirty-six articles and conference abstracts from thirty-three studies were included in the review. It appears that wearable defibrillator use compared with no defibrillator use reduces the chance of ventricular tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) associated deaths by an absolute risk reduction of approximately 1 percent, achieved by averting approximately 4/5th of all VT/VF associated deaths. The quality of evidence was low to very low quality, such that our confidence in the reported estimates is weak. To validate beneficial results, further investigation using robust study designs conducted by independent researchers is warranted.

Methodological Quality Assessment of Meta-analyses in Endodontics.

PubMed

Kattan, Sereen; Lee, Su-Min; Kohli, Meetu R; Setzer, Frank C; Karabucak, Bekir

2018-01-01

The objectives of this review were to assess the methodological quality of published meta-analyses related to endodontics using the assessment of multiple systematic reviews (AMSTAR) tool and to provide a follow-up to previously published reviews. Three electronic databases were searched for eligible studies according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria: Embase via Ovid, The Cochrane Library, and Scopus. The electronic search was amended by a hand search of 6 dental journals (International Endodontic Journal; Journal of Endodontics; Australian Endodontic Journal; Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology, Oral Radiology; Endodontics and Dental Traumatology; and Journal of Dental Research). The searches were conducted to include articles published after July 2009, and the deadline for inclusion of the meta-analyses was November 30, 2016. The AMSTAR assessment tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of all included studies. A total of 36 reports of meta-analyses were included. The overall quality of the meta-analyses reports was found to be medium, with an estimated mean overall AMSTAR score of 7.25 (95% confidence interval, 6.59-7.90). The most poorly assessed areas were providing an a priori design, the assessment of the status of publication, and publication bias. In recent publications in the field of endodontics, the overall quality of the reported meta-analyses is medium according to AMSTAR. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery when considered over all cancer types: a synthesis of meta-analyses.

PubMed

Bowater, Russell J; Abdelmalik, Sally M E; Lilford, Richard J

2012-10-01

Despite a large number of clinical trials having been conducted to assess the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for various cancers, whether it is best to use this treatment remains a generally contentious issue for many common cancers. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether any general conclusions can be drawn about the efficacy or inefficacy of this treatment within different cancer classifications. Meta-analyses of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery were synthesized over as many types of cancer as possible. Data sources were Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane library. Eligible meta-analyses were meta-analyses of RCTs for any type of cancer that compared surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy with surgery followed by no adjuvant chemotherapy. The literature search found 25 meta-analyses for 15 cancer types that satisfied the criteria necessary for detailed analysis within this study. The estimates of relative risk for all cause mortality were reported as being less than one (indicating adjuvant chemotherapy is beneficial) by all meta-analyses apart from a meta-analysis for colorectal cancer metastasized to the liver. Moreover, 15 of these meta-analyses also reported that the 95% confidence interval for this relative risk is less than one (indicating statistical significance at the 5% level). The results for all cancer types included in this study except for cancer metastasized to the liver can be thought of as supporting each other through the idea of there being a common treatment effect or at least a common range of effect across all (or most) of these cancer types. For example, with regard to cancer types where the evidence in favor of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery is only moderately strong, the results of this study may encourage more clinicians to regard the use of this treatment as standard practice.

Meta-analyses of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms and post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Escámez, Teresa; Koenen, Karestan C; Alonso, Jordi; Sánchez-Meca, Julio

2013-01-01

To conduct a meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms performed in PTSD cases. Potential studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science databases (Web of Knowledge, WoK), PsychINFO, PsychArticles and HuGeNet (Human Genome Epidemiology Network) up until December 2011. Published observational studies reporting genotype or allele frequencies of this genetic factor in PTSD cases and in non-PTSD controls were all considered eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. Two reviewers selected studies for possible inclusion and extracted data independently following a standardized protocol. A biallelic and a triallelic meta-analysis, including the total S and S' frequencies, the dominant (S+/LL and S'+/L'L') and the recessive model (SS/L+ and S'S'/L'+), was performed with a random-effect model to calculate the pooled OR and its corresponding 95% CI. Forest plots and Cochran's Q-Statistic and I(2) index were calculated to check for heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were carried out to analyze potential moderators. Publication bias and quality of reporting were also analyzed. 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, providing a total sample of 1874 patients with PTSD and 7785 controls in the biallelic meta-analyses and 627 and 3524, respectively, in the triallelic. None of the meta-analyses showed evidence of an association between 5-HTTLPR and PTSD but several characteristics (exposure to the same principal stressor for PTSD cases and controls, adjustment for potential confounding variables, blind assessment, study design, type of PTSD, ethnic distribution and Total Quality Score) influenced the results in subgroup analyses and meta-regression. There was no evidence of potential publication bias. Current evidence does not support a direct effect of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms on PTSD. Further analyses of gene-environment interactions, epigenetic modulation and new studies with large samples and/or meta-analyses are required.

Behavior, sensitivity, and power of activation likelihood estimation characterized by massive empirical simulation.

PubMed

Eickhoff, Simon B; Nichols, Thomas E; Laird, Angela R; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Amunts, Katrin; Fox, Peter T; Bzdok, Danilo; Eickhoff, Claudia R

2016-08-15

Given the increasing number of neuroimaging publications, the automated knowledge extraction on brain-behavior associations by quantitative meta-analyses has become a highly important and rapidly growing field of research. Among several methods to perform coordinate-based neuroimaging meta-analyses, Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) has been widely adopted. In this paper, we addressed two pressing questions related to ALE meta-analysis: i) Which thresholding method is most appropriate to perform statistical inference? ii) Which sample size, i.e., number of experiments, is needed to perform robust meta-analyses? We provided quantitative answers to these questions by simulating more than 120,000 meta-analysis datasets using empirical parameters (i.e., number of subjects, number of reported foci, distribution of activation foci) derived from the BrainMap database. This allowed to characterize the behavior of ALE analyses, to derive first power estimates for neuroimaging meta-analyses, and to thus formulate recommendations for future ALE studies. We could show as a first consequence that cluster-level family-wise error (FWE) correction represents the most appropriate method for statistical inference, while voxel-level FWE correction is valid but more conservative. In contrast, uncorrected inference and false-discovery rate correction should be avoided. As a second consequence, researchers should aim to include at least 20 experiments into an ALE meta-analysis to achieve sufficient power for moderate effects. We would like to note, though, that these calculations and recommendations are specific to ALE and may not be extrapolated to other approaches for (neuroimaging) meta-analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavior, Sensitivity, and power of activation likelihood estimation characterized by massive empirical simulation

PubMed Central

Eickhoff, Simon B.; Nichols, Thomas E.; Laird, Angela R.; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Amunts, Katrin; Fox, Peter T.

2016-01-01

Given the increasing number of neuroimaging publications, the automated knowledge extraction on brain-behavior associations by quantitative meta-analyses has become a highly important and rapidly growing field of research. Among several methods to perform coordinate-based neuroimaging meta-analyses, Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) has been widely adopted. In this paper, we addressed two pressing questions related to ALE meta-analysis: i) Which thresholding method is most appropriate to perform statistical inference? ii) Which sample size, i.e., number of experiments, is needed to perform robust meta-analyses? We provided quantitative answers to these questions by simulating more than 120,000 meta-analysis datasets using empirical parameters (i.e., number of subjects, number of reported foci, distribution of activation foci) derived from the BrainMap database. This allowed to characterize the behavior of ALE analyses, to derive first power estimates for neuroimaging meta-analyses, and to thus formulate recommendations for future ALE studies. We could show as a first consequence that cluster-level family-wise error (FWE) correction represents the most appropriate method for statistical inference, while voxel-level FWE correction is valid but more conservative. In contrast, uncorrected inference and false-discovery rate correction should be avoided. As a second consequence, researchers should aim to include at least 20 experiments into an ALE meta-analysis to achieve sufficient power for moderate effects. We would like to note, though, that these calculations and recommendations are specific to ALE and may not be extrapolated to other approaches for (neuroimaging) meta-analysis. PMID:27179606

Violent video game effects on aggression, empathy, and prosocial behavior in eastern and western countries: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Anderson, Craig A; Shibuya, Akiko; Ihori, Nobuko; Swing, Edward L; Bushman, Brad J; Sakamoto, Akira; Rothstein, Hannah R; Saleem, Muniba

2010-03-01

Meta-analytic procedures were used to test the effects of violent video games on aggressive behavior, aggressive cognition, aggressive affect, physiological arousal, empathy/desensitization, and prosocial behavior. Unique features of this meta-analytic review include (a) more restrictive methodological quality inclusion criteria than in past meta-analyses; (b) cross-cultural comparisons; (c) longitudinal studies for all outcomes except physiological arousal; (d) conservative statistical controls; (e) multiple moderator analyses; and (f) sensitivity analyses. Social-cognitive models and cultural differences between Japan and Western countries were used to generate theory-based predictions. Meta-analyses yielded significant effects for all 6 outcome variables. The pattern of results for different outcomes and research designs (experimental, cross-sectional, longitudinal) fit theoretical predictions well. The evidence strongly suggests that exposure to violent video games is a causal risk factor for increased aggressive behavior, aggressive cognition, and aggressive affect and for decreased empathy and prosocial behavior. Moderator analyses revealed significant research design effects, weak evidence of cultural differences in susceptibility and type of measurement effects, and no evidence of sex differences in susceptibility. Results of various sensitivity analyses revealed these effects to be robust, with little evidence of selection (publication) bias.

The effect of English-language restriction on systematic review-based meta-analyses: a systematic review of empirical studies.

PubMed

Morrison, Andra; Polisena, Julie; Husereau, Don; Moulton, Kristen; Clark, Michelle; Fiander, Michelle; Mierzwinski-Urban, Monika; Clifford, Tammy; Hutton, Brian; Rabb, Danielle

2012-04-01

The English language is generally perceived to be the universal language of science. However, the exclusive reliance on English-language studies may not represent all of the evidence. Excluding languages other than English (LOE) may introduce a language bias and lead to erroneous conclusions. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using bibliographic databases and grey literature sources. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they measured the effect of excluding randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported in LOE from systematic review-based meta-analyses (SR/MA) for one or more outcomes. None of the included studies found major differences between summary treatment effects in English-language restricted meta-analyses and LOE-inclusive meta-analyses. Findings differed about the methodological and reporting quality of trials reported in LOE. The precision of pooled estimates improved with the inclusion of LOE trials. Overall, we found no evidence of a systematic bias from the use of language restrictions in systematic review-based meta-analyses in conventional medicine. Further research is needed to determine the impact of language restriction on systematic reviews in particular fields of medicine.

The PRISMA Statement for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Studies That Evaluate Health Care Interventions: Explanation and Elaboration

PubMed Central

Liberati, Alessandro; Altman, Douglas G.; Tetzlaff, Jennifer; Mulrow, Cynthia; Gøtzsche, Peter C.; Ioannidis, John P. A.; Clarke, Mike; Devereaux, P. J.; Kleijnen, Jos; Moher, David

2009-01-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential to summarize evidence relating to efficacy and safety of health care interventions accurately and reliably. The clarity and transparency of these reports, however, is not optimal. Poor reporting of systematic reviews diminishes their value to clinicians, policy makers, and other users. Since the development of the QUOROM (QUality Of Reporting Of Meta-analysis) Statement—a reporting guideline published in 1999—there have been several conceptual, methodological, and practical advances regarding the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Also, reviews of published systematic reviews have found that key information about these studies is often poorly reported. Realizing these issues, an international group that included experienced authors and methodologists developed PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) as an evolution of the original QUOROM guideline for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of evaluations of health care interventions. The PRISMA Statement consists of a 27-item checklist and a four-phase flow diagram. The checklist includes items deemed essential for transparent reporting of a systematic review. In this Explanation and Elaboration document, we explain the meaning and rationale for each checklist item. For each item, we include an example of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature. The PRISMA Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.prisma-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. PMID:19621070

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

PubMed

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

PubMed

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Bayesian Analysis of Silica Exposure and Lung Cancer Using Human and Animal Studies.

PubMed

Bartell, Scott M; Hamra, Ghassan Badri; Steenland, Kyle

2017-03-01

Bayesian methods can be used to incorporate external information into epidemiologic exposure-response analyses of silica and lung cancer. We used data from a pooled mortality analysis of silica and lung cancer (n = 65,980), using untransformed and log-transformed cumulative exposure. Animal data came from chronic silica inhalation studies using rats. We conducted Bayesian analyses with informative priors based on the animal data and different cross-species extrapolation factors. We also conducted analyses with exposure measurement error corrections in the absence of a gold standard, assuming Berkson-type error that increased with increasing exposure. The pooled animal data exposure-response coefficient was markedly higher (log exposure) or lower (untransformed exposure) than the coefficient for the pooled human data. With 10-fold uncertainty, the animal prior had little effect on results for pooled analyses and only modest effects in some individual studies. One-fold uncertainty produced markedly different results for both pooled and individual studies. Measurement error correction had little effect in pooled analyses using log exposure. Using untransformed exposure, measurement error correction caused a 5% decrease in the exposure-response coefficient for the pooled analysis and marked changes in some individual studies. The animal prior had more impact for smaller human studies and for one-fold versus three- or 10-fold uncertainty. Adjustment for Berkson error using Bayesian methods had little effect on the exposure-response coefficient when exposure was log transformed or when the sample size was large. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B160.

[Comparison of simple pooling and bivariate model used in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy published in Chinese journals].

PubMed

Huang, Yuan-sheng; Yang, Zhi-rong; Zhan, Si-yan

2015-06-18

To investigate the use of simple pooling and bivariate model in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) published in Chinese journals (January to November, 2014), compare the differences of results from these two models, and explore the impact of between-study variability of sensitivity and specificity on the differences. DTA meta-analyses were searched through Chinese Biomedical Literature Database (January to November, 2014). Details in models and data for fourfold table were extracted. Descriptive analysis was conducted to investigate the prevalence of the use of simple pooling method and bivariate model in the included literature. Data were re-analyzed with the two models respectively. Differences in the results were examined by Wilcoxon signed rank test. How the results differences were affected by between-study variability of sensitivity and specificity, expressed by I2, was explored. The 55 systematic reviews, containing 58 DTA meta-analyses, were included and 25 DTA meta-analyses were eligible for re-analysis. Simple pooling was used in 50 (90.9%) systematic reviews and bivariate model in 1 (1.8%). The remaining 4 (7.3%) articles used other models pooling sensitivity and specificity or pooled neither of them. Of the reviews simply pooling sensitivity and specificity, 41(82.0%) were at the risk of wrongly using Meta-disc software. The differences in medians of sensitivity and specificity between two models were both 0.011 (P<0.001, P=0.031 respectively). Greater differences could be found as I2 of sensitivity or specificity became larger, especially when I2>75%. Most DTA meta-analyses published in Chinese journals(January to November, 2014) combine the sensitivity and specificity by simple pooling. Meta-disc software can pool the sensitivity and specificity only through fixed-effect model, but a high proportion of authors think it can implement random-effect model. Simple pooling tends to underestimate the results compared with bivariate model. The greater the between-study variance is, the more likely the simple pooling has larger deviation. It is necessary to increase the knowledge level of statistical methods and software for meta-analyses of DTA data.

Approximate Confidence Intervals for Moment-Based Estimators of the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack; Baker, Rose

2015-01-01

Moment-based estimators of the between-study variance are very popular when performing random effects meta-analyses. This type of estimation has many advantages including computational and conceptual simplicity. Furthermore, by using these estimators in large samples, valid meta-analyses can be performed without the assumption that the treatment…

A Meta-Analysis of Interventions for Bereaved Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosner, Rita; Kruse, Joachim; Hagl, Maria

2010-01-01

The main objective of this review was to provide a quantitative and methodologically sound evaluation of existing treatments for bereavement and grief reactions in children and adolescents. Two meta-analyses were conducted: 1 on controlled studies and 1 on uncontrolled studies. The 2 meta-analyses were based on a total of 27 treatment studies…

GAD vaccine reduces insulin loss in recently diagnosed type 1 diabetes: findings from a Bayesian meta-analysis.

PubMed

Beam, Craig A; MacCallum, Colleen; Herold, Kevan C; Wherrett, Diane K; Palmer, Jerry; Ludvigsson, Johnny

2017-01-01

GAD is a major target of the autoimmune response that occurs in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Randomised controlled clinical trials of a GAD + alum vaccine in human participants have so far given conflicting results. In this study, we sought to see whether a clearer answer to the question of whether GAD65 has an effect on C-peptide could be reached by combining individual-level data from the randomised controlled trials using Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the probability of a positive biological effect (a reduction in C-peptide loss compared with placebo approximately 1 year after the GAD vaccine). We estimate that there is a 98% probability that 20 μg GAD with alum administered twice yields a positive biological effect. The effect is probably a 15-20% reduction in the loss of C-peptide at approximately 1 year after treatment. This translates to an annual expected loss of between -0.250 and -0.235 pmol/ml in treated patients compared with an expected 2 h AUC loss of -0.294 pmol/ml at 1 year for untreated newly diagnosed patients. The biological effect of this vaccination should be developed further in order to reach clinically desirable reductions in insulin loss in patients recently diagnosed with type 1 diabetes.

Bayesian Unimodal Density Regression for Causal Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Karabatsos and Walker (2011) introduced a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model. Through analyses of real and simulated data, they showed that the BNP regression model outperforms other parametric and nonparametric regression models of common use, in terms of predictive accuracy of the outcome (dependent) variable. The other,…

Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Estimating Joint Uncertainty of Freundlich Adsorption Isotherm Fitting Parameters

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we present methods for estimating Freundlich isotherm fitting parameters (K and N) and their joint uncertainty, which have been implemented into the freeware software platforms R and WinBUGS. These estimates were determined by both Frequentist and Bayesian analyse...

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Interpretive analysis of 85 systematic reviews suggests that narrative syntheses and meta-analyses are incommensurate in argumentation.

PubMed

Melendez-Torres, G J; O'Mara-Eves, A; Thomas, J; Brunton, G; Caird, J; Petticrew, M

2017-03-01

Using Toulmin's argumentation theory, we analysed the texts of systematic reviews in the area of workplace health promotion to explore differences in the modes of reasoning embedded in reports of narrative synthesis as compared with reports of meta-analysis. We used framework synthesis, grounded theory and cross-case analysis methods to analyse 85 systematic reviews addressing intervention effectiveness in workplace health promotion. Two core categories, or 'modes of reasoning', emerged to frame the contrast between narrative synthesis and meta-analysis: practical-configurational reasoning in narrative synthesis ('what is going on here? What picture emerges?') and inferential-predictive reasoning in meta-analysis ('does it work, and how well? Will it work again?'). Modes of reasoning examined quality and consistency of the included evidence differently. Meta-analyses clearly distinguished between warrant and claim, whereas narrative syntheses often presented joint warrant-claims. Narrative syntheses and meta-analyses represent different modes of reasoning. Systematic reviewers are likely to be addressing research questions in different ways with each method. It is important to consider narrative synthesis in its own right as a method and to develop specific quality criteria and understandings of how it is carried out, not merely as a complement to, or second-best option for, meta-analysis. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Glycemic Control of Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists among Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zhixia; Zhang, Yuan; Quan, Xiaochi; Yang, Zhirong; Zeng, Xiantao; Ji, Linong; Sun, Feng; Zhan, Siyan

2016-01-01

To synthesize current evidence of the impact of Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) on hypoglycemia, treatment discontinuation and glycemic level in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Literature search (Medline, Embase, the Cochrane library), website of clinical trial, bibliographies of published systematic reviews. Randomized controlled trials with available data comparing GLP-1 RAs with placebo or traditional anti-diabetic drugs in patients with type 2 diabetes. Traditional pairwise meta-analyses within DerSimonian-Laird random effects model and network meta-analysis within a Bayesian framework were performed to calculate odds ratios for the incidence of hypoglycemia, treatment discontinuation, HbA1c<7.0% and HbA1c<6.5%. Ranking probabilities for all treatments were estimated to obtain a treatment hierarchy using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) and mean ranks. 78 trials with 13 treatments were included. Overall, all GLP-1 RAs except for albiglutide increased the risk of hypoglycemia when compared to placebo. Reduction in the incidence of hypoglycemia was found for all GLP-1 RAs versus insulin (except for dulaglutide) and sulphonylureas. For the incidence of treatment discontinuation, increase was found for exenatide, liraglutide, lixisenatide and taspoglutide versus placebo, insulin and sitagliptin. For glycemic level, decrease was found for all GLP-1 RAs versus placebo. Dulaglutide, exenatide long-acting release (exe_lar), liraglutide and taspoglutide had significant lowering effect when compared with sitagliptin (HbA1c<7.0%) and insulin (HbA1c<6.5%). Finally, according to SUCRAs, placebo, thiazolidinediones and albiglutide had the best decrease effect on hypoglycemia; sulphanylureas, sitagliptin and insulin decrease the incidence of treatment discontinuation most; exe_lar and dulaglutide had the highest impact on glycemic level among 13 treatments. Among 13 treatments, GLP-1 RAs had a significant reduction with glycemic level but a slight increase effect on hypoglycemia and treatment discontinuation. While albiglutide had the best decrease effect on hypoglycemia and treatment discontinuation among all GLP-1 RAs. However, further evidence is necessary for more conclusive inferences on mechanisms underlying the rise in hypoglycemia.

Exercise and other non-pharmaceutical interventions for cancer-related fatigue in patients during or after cancer treatment: a systematic review incorporating an indirect-comparisons meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Meichtry, Andre; Nilsson Balfe, Lina; Knols, Ruud H; Verra, Martin L; Taeymans, Jan

2018-01-01

Aim To assess the relative effects of different types of exercise and other non-pharmaceutical interventions on cancer-related fatigue (CRF) in patients during and after cancer treatment. Design Systematic review and indirect-comparisons meta-analysis. Data sources Articles were searched in PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL and published meta-analyses. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Randomised studies published up to January 2017 evaluating different types of exercise or other non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce CRF in any cancer type during or after treatment. Study appraisal and synthesis Risk of bias assessment with PEDro criteria and random effects Bayesian network meta-analysis. Results We included 245 studies. Comparing the treatments with usual care during cancer treatment, relaxation exercise was the highest ranked intervention with a standardisedmean difference (SMD) of −0.77 (95% Credible Interval (CrI) −1.22 to −0.31), while massage (−0.78; −1.55 to −0.01), cognitive–behavioural therapy combined with physical activity (combined CBT, −0.72; −1.34 to −0.09), combined aerobic and resistance training (−0.67; −1.01 to −0.34), resistance training (−0.53; −1.02 to −0.03), aerobic (−0.53; −0.80 to −0.26) and yoga (−0.51; −1.01 to 0.00) all had moderate-to-large SMDs. After cancer treatment, yoga showed the highest effect (−0.68; −0.93 to −0.43). Combined aerobic and resistance training (−0.50; −0.66 to −0.34), combined CBT (−0.45; −0.70 to −0.21), Tai-Chi (−0.45; −0.84 to −0.06), CBT (−0.42; −0.58 to −0.25), resistance training (−0.35; −0.62 to −0.08) and aerobic (−0.33; −0.51 to −0.16) showed all small-to-moderate SMDs. Conclusions Patients can choose among different effective types of exercise and non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce CRF. PMID:28501804

Comparative efficacy of fixed-dose combinations of long-acting muscarinic antagonists and long-acting β2-agonists: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Schlueter, Max; Gonzalez-Rojas, N; Baldwin, Michael; Groenke, Lars; Voss, Florian; Reason, Tim

2016-01-01

Background: A number of long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/long-acting β2-agonist (LABA) fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for treatment of moderate-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have recently become available, but none have been directly compared in head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The purpose of this study was to assess the relative clinical benefit of all currently available LAMA/LABA FDCs using a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA). Methods: A systematic literature review identified RCTs investigating the efficacy, safety and quality of life associated with licensed LAMA/LABA FDCs for the treatment of moderate-to-very severe COPD. RCTs were screened for inclusion in the NMA using prespecified eligibility criteria. Data were extracted for outcomes of interest, including change in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (tFEV1) from baseline, St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) percentage of responders, Transition Dyspnea Index (TDI) percentage of responders, change in SGRQ score from baseline, change in TDI focal score from baseline, moderate-to-severe exacerbations, all-cause discontinuation, and discontinuation due to adverse events. Results: Following screening, a total of 27 trials from 26 publications with 30,361 subjects were eligible for inclusion in the NMA. Nonsignificant results were seen in most analyses comparing efficacy, exacerbations and discontinuation rates of included LAMA/LABA FDCs (i.e. aclidinium/formoterol 400/12 µg, glycopyrronium/indacaterol 110/50 µg, tiotropium + olodaterol 5/5 µg, umeclidinium/vilanterol 62.5/25 µg). Meta-regression controlling for post-bronchodilator percentage of tFEV1 predicted at baseline as well as meta-regression adjusting for concomitant use of inhaled corticosteroids at baseline was performed to assess the magnitude of effect modification and produced similar results as observed in the base case analysis. Conclusion: All LAMA/LABA FDCs were found to have similar efficacy and safety. Definitive assessment of the relative efficacy of different treatments can only be performed through direct comparison in head-to-head RCTs. In the absence of such data, this indirect comparison may be of value in clinical and health economic decision-making. PMID:26746383

Structural Characteristics of the Alpha-Synuclein Oligomers Stabilized By the Flavonoid Baicalein

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, D.-P.; Fink, A.L.; Uversky, V.N.

The flavonoid baicalein inhibits fibrillation of alpha-synuclein, which is a major component of Lewy bodies in Parkinson's disease. It has been known that baicalein induces the formation of alpha-synuclein oligomers and consequently prevents their fibrillation. In order to evaluate the structural properties of baicalein-stabilized oligomers, we purified oligomer species by HPLC and examined their stability and structure by CD, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, size exclusion chromatography HPLC, small-angle X-ray scattering, and atomic force microscopy. Baicalein-stabilized oligomers are beta-sheet-enriched according to CD and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy analyses. They did not form fibrils even after very prolonged incubation. From small-angle X-raymore » scattering data and atomic force microscopy images, the oligomers were characterized as quite compact globular species. Oligomers were extremely stable, with a GdmCl C(m)=3.3 M. This high stability explains the previously observed inhibition properties of baicalein against alpha-synuclein fibrillation. These baicalein-stabilized oligomers, added to the solution of aggregating alpha-synuclein, were able to noticeably inhibit its fibrillation. After prolonged coincubation, short fibrils were formed, suggesting an effective interaction of oligomers with monomeric alpha-synuclein. Membrane permeability tests suggested that the baicalein-stabilized oligomers had a mild effect on the integrity of the membrane surface. This effect was rather similar to that of the monomeric protein, suggesting that targeted stabilization of certain alpha-synuclein oligomers might offer a potential strategy for the development of novel Parkinson's disease therapies.« less

Systematic review finds that study data not published in full text articles have unclear impact on meta-analyses results in medical research.

PubMed

Schmucker, Christine M; Blümle, Anette; Schell, Lisa K; Schwarzer, Guido; Oeller, Patrick; Cabrera, Laura; von Elm, Erik; Briel, Matthias; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2017-01-01

A meta-analysis as part of a systematic review aims to provide a thorough, comprehensive and unbiased statistical summary of data from the literature. However, relevant study results could be missing from a meta-analysis because of selective publication and inadequate dissemination. If missing outcome data differ systematically from published ones, a meta-analysis will be biased with an inaccurate assessment of the intervention effect. As part of the EU-funded OPEN project (www.open-project.eu) we conducted a systematic review that assessed whether the inclusion of data that were not published at all and/or published only in the grey literature influences pooled effect estimates in meta-analyses and leads to different interpretation. Systematic review of published literature (methodological research projects). Four bibliographic databases were searched up to February 2016 without restriction of publication year or language. Methodological research projects were considered eligible for inclusion if they reviewed a cohort of meta-analyses which (i) compared pooled effect estimates of meta-analyses of health care interventions according to publication status of data or (ii) examined whether the inclusion of unpublished or grey literature data impacts the result of a meta-analysis. Seven methodological research projects including 187 meta-analyses comparing pooled treatment effect estimates according to different publication status were identified. Two research projects showed that published data showed larger pooled treatment effects in favour of the intervention than unpublished or grey literature data (Ratio of ORs 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.28 and 1.34, 95% CI 1.09-1.66). In the remaining research projects pooled effect estimates and/or overall findings were not significantly changed by the inclusion of unpublished and/or grey literature data. The precision of the pooled estimate was increased with narrower 95% confidence interval. Although we may anticipate that systematic reviews and meta-analyses not including unpublished or grey literature study results are likely to overestimate the treatment effects, current empirical research shows that this is only the case in a minority of reviews. Therefore, currently, a meta-analyst should particularly consider time, effort and costs when adding such data to their analysis. Future research is needed to identify which reviews may benefit most from including unpublished or grey data.

Systematic review finds that study data not published in full text articles have unclear impact on meta-analyses results in medical research

PubMed Central

Blümle, Anette; Schell, Lisa K.; Schwarzer, Guido; Oeller, Patrick; Cabrera, Laura; von Elm, Erik; Briel, Matthias; Meerpohl, Joerg J.

2017-01-01

Background A meta-analysis as part of a systematic review aims to provide a thorough, comprehensive and unbiased statistical summary of data from the literature. However, relevant study results could be missing from a meta-analysis because of selective publication and inadequate dissemination. If missing outcome data differ systematically from published ones, a meta-analysis will be biased with an inaccurate assessment of the intervention effect. As part of the EU-funded OPEN project (www.open-project.eu) we conducted a systematic review that assessed whether the inclusion of data that were not published at all and/or published only in the grey literature influences pooled effect estimates in meta-analyses and leads to different interpretation. Methods and findings Systematic review of published literature (methodological research projects). Four bibliographic databases were searched up to February 2016 without restriction of publication year or language. Methodological research projects were considered eligible for inclusion if they reviewed a cohort of meta-analyses which (i) compared pooled effect estimates of meta-analyses of health care interventions according to publication status of data or (ii) examined whether the inclusion of unpublished or grey literature data impacts the result of a meta-analysis. Seven methodological research projects including 187 meta-analyses comparing pooled treatment effect estimates according to different publication status were identified. Two research projects showed that published data showed larger pooled treatment effects in favour of the intervention than unpublished or grey literature data (Ratio of ORs 1.15, 95% CI 1.04–1.28 and 1.34, 95% CI 1.09–1.66). In the remaining research projects pooled effect estimates and/or overall findings were not significantly changed by the inclusion of unpublished and/or grey literature data. The precision of the pooled estimate was increased with narrower 95% confidence interval. Conclusions Although we may anticipate that systematic reviews and meta-analyses not including unpublished or grey literature study results are likely to overestimate the treatment effects, current empirical research shows that this is only the case in a minority of reviews. Therefore, currently, a meta-analyst should particularly consider time, effort and costs when adding such data to their analysis. Future research is needed to identify which reviews may benefit most from including unpublished or grey data. PMID:28441452

Locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck: A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis of the currently available treatment options.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Di Rocco, Arianna; Di Maio, Pasquale; Golusinski, Paweł; Pardiñas López, Simón; Savo, Alfredo; Pellini, Raul; Spriano, Giuseppe

2018-05-01

There are still many unresolved questions in the management of locally advanced Head and Neck Cancer (HNC). Many chemotherapeutic drugs and radiotherapy fractionation schemes are available and not all have been evaluated in head-to-head clinical trials. This systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis aims to compare the available treatment strategies and chemotherapeutic options for locally advanced HNC. We performed a search on bibliography databases, trials registries and meetings proceedings for published and unpublished randomized trials from January 1st 2000 to December 1st 2017. Trials had to compare systemic interventions and radiotherapy (RT) approaches for locally advanced, non-metastatic HNC. Trials recruiting patients whose surgery was the first treatment option, sample size less than 20 per arm or that did not use randomization for treatment allocation were excluded from the analysis. Summary estimates on Overall survival (OS), Progression-free survival (PFS) and toxicity outcomes (grade 3-4 mucositis and neutropenia) were extracted from the included studies on a predefined database sheet. Bias was assessed through the Chocrane risk of bias assessment tool. We performed a set of pair-wise meta-analyses using a random effect model. We also performed a random effect network meta-analysis under a Bayesian framework. From the 57 included trials, including 15,723 patients, was possible to conduct analysis on 26 treatments for OS, 22 treatments for PFS and 10 treatments for toxicity. In terms of OS Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) with cisplatin (HR 0.70, 95% CrI [credible interval] 0.62-0.78) and cetuximab on top of CCRT (HR 0.7, 95% CrI 0.5-0.97) are clearly superior to conventional RT alone. Induction chemotherapy (IC) with cisplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.74, 95% CrI 0.52-0.95), IC with docetaxel, cisplatin, fluorouracil (HR 0.55, 95% CrI 0.54-0.89) and IC with paclitaxel, cisplatin, fluorouracil (HR 0.55, 95% CrI 0.34-0.89) before CCRT are all superior to conventional RT. CCRT with cisplatin is also superior to altered fractionation RT (HR 0.74, 95% CrI 0.64-0.84). Altered fractionation RT is not superior to conventional RT (HR 0.95, 95% CrI 0.85-1.06). Regarding PFS, CCRT with cisplatin (HR 0.72, 95% CrI 0.63-0.83), cisplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.67, 95% CrI 0.5-0.88), carboplatin (HR 0.63, 95% CrI 0.46-0.87), carboplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.75, 95% CrI 0.56-1), IC with cisplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.59, 95% CrI 0.45-0.78), IC with docetaxel, cisplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.53, 95% CrI 0.41-0.68) and IC with paclitaxel, cisplatin and fluorouracil (HR 0.59, 95% CrI 0.35-0.99) are superior to conventional RT and altered fractionation RT. IC with docetaxel, cisplatin and fluorouracil shows a significant superiority against CCRT with cisplatin (HR 0.73 95% CrI 0.58-0.92). Altered fractionation RT is not superior to conventional RT (HR 0.91, 95% CrI 0.81-1.02). Altered fractionation increases the risk of developing grade 3-4 mucositis compared to conventional RT (OR 3.74 95% 1.64-8.67) INTERPRETATION: CCRT with cisplatin remains the gold standard of treatment. Taxane based IC regimens may have a impact on locally advanced disease. Altered fractionation RT is inferior to CCRT and also does not seem to be meaningfully better than conventionally fractionated RT alone. Its role in locally advanced disease should be reevaluated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Borrowing of strength and study weights in multivariate and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Price, Malcolm; Copas, John; Riley, Richard D

2017-12-01

Multivariate and network meta-analysis have the potential for the estimated mean of one effect to borrow strength from the data on other effects of interest. The extent of this borrowing of strength is usually assessed informally. We present new mathematical definitions of 'borrowing of strength'. Our main proposal is based on a decomposition of the score statistic, which we show can be interpreted as comparing the precision of estimates from the multivariate and univariate models. Our definition of borrowing of strength therefore emulates the usual informal assessment. We also derive a method for calculating study weights, which we embed into the same framework as our borrowing of strength statistics, so that percentage study weights can accompany the results from multivariate and network meta-analyses as they do in conventional univariate meta-analyses. Our proposals are illustrated using three meta-analyses involving correlated effects for multiple outcomes, multiple risk factor associations and multiple treatments (network meta-analysis).

Borrowing of strength and study weights in multivariate and network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Price, Malcolm; Copas, John; Riley, Richard D

2016-01-01

Multivariate and network meta-analysis have the potential for the estimated mean of one effect to borrow strength from the data on other effects of interest. The extent of this borrowing of strength is usually assessed informally. We present new mathematical definitions of ‘borrowing of strength’. Our main proposal is based on a decomposition of the score statistic, which we show can be interpreted as comparing the precision of estimates from the multivariate and univariate models. Our definition of borrowing of strength therefore emulates the usual informal assessment. We also derive a method for calculating study weights, which we embed into the same framework as our borrowing of strength statistics, so that percentage study weights can accompany the results from multivariate and network meta-analyses as they do in conventional univariate meta-analyses. Our proposals are illustrated using three meta-analyses involving correlated effects for multiple outcomes, multiple risk factor associations and multiple treatments (network meta-analysis). PMID:26546254

How can my research paper be useful for future meta-analyses on forest restoration practices?

Treesearch

Enrique Andivia; Pedro Villar‑Salvador; Juan A. Oliet; Jaime Puertolas; R. Kasten Dumroese

2018-01-01

Statistical meta-analysis is a powerful and useful tool to quantitatively synthesize the information conveyed in published studies on a particular topic. It allows identifying and quantifying overall patterns and exploring causes of variation. The inclusion of published works in meta-analyses requires, however, a minimum quality standard of the reported data and...

HALT & REVERSE: Hsf1 activators lower cardiomyocyt damage; towards a novel approach to REVERSE atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Lanters, Eva A H; van Marion, Denise M S; Kik, Charles; Steen, Herman; Bogers, Ad J J C; Allessie, Maurits A; Brundel, Bianca J J M; de Groot, Natasja M S

2015-11-05

Atrial fibrillation is a progressive arrhythmia, the exact mechanism underlying the progressive nature of recurrent AF episodes is still unknown. Recently, it was found that key players of the protein quality control system of the cardiomyocyte, i.e. Heat Shock Proteins, protect against atrial fibrillation progression by attenuating atrial electrical and structural remodeling (electropathology). HALT & REVERSE aims to investigate the correlation between electropathology, as defined by endo- or epicardial mapping, Heat Shock Protein levels and development or recurrence of atrial fibrillation following pulmonary vein isolation, or electrical cardioversion or cardiothoracic surgery. This study is a prospective observational study. Three separate study groups are defined: (1) cardiothoracic surgery, (2) pulmonary vein isolation and (3) electrical cardioversion. An intra-operative high-resolution epicardial (group 1) or endocardial (group 2) mapping procedure of the atria is performed to study atrial electropathology. Blood samples for Heat Shock Protein determination are obtained at baseline and during the follow-up period at 3 months (group 2), 6 months (groups 1 and 2) and 1 year (group 1 and 2). Tissue samples of the right and left atrial appendages in patients in group 1 are analysed for Heat Shock Protein levels and for tissue characteristics. Early post procedural atrial fibrillation is detected by continuous rhythm monitoring, whereas late post procedural atrial fibrillation is documented by either electrocardiogram or 24-h Holter registration. HALT & REVERSE aims to identify the correlation between Heat Shock Protein levels and degree of electropathology. The study outcome will contribute to novel diagnostic tools for the early recognition of clinical atrial fibrillation. Rotterdam Medical Ethical Committee MEC-2014-393, Dutch Trial Registration NTR4658.

Reporting and methodological quality of meta-analyses in urological literature

PubMed Central

Xu, Jing

2017-01-01

Purpose To assess the overall quality of published urological meta-analyses and identify predictive factors for high quality. Materials and Methods We systematically searched PubMed to identify meta-analyses published from January 1st, 2011 to December 31st, 2015 in 10 predetermined major paper-based urology journals. The characteristics of the included meta-analyses were collected, and their reporting and methodological qualities were assessed by the PRISMA checklist (27 items) and AMSTAR tool (11 items), respectively. Descriptive statistics were used for individual items as a measure of overall compliance, and PRISMA and AMSTAR scores were calculated as the sum of adequately reported domains. Logistic regression was used to identify predictive factors for high qualities. Results A total of 183 meta-analyses were included. The mean PRISMA and AMSTAR scores were 22.74 ± 2.04 and 7.57 ± 1.41, respectively. PRISMA item 5, protocol and registration, items 15 and 22, risk of bias across studies, items 16 and 23, additional analysis had less than 50% adherence. AMSTAR item 1, “a priori” design, item 5, list of studies and item 10, publication bias had less than 50% adherence. Logistic regression analyses showed that funding support and “a priori” design were associated with superior reporting quality, following PRISMA guideline and “a priori” design were associated with superior methodological quality. Conclusions Reporting and methodological qualities of recently published meta-analyses in major paper-based urology journals are generally good. Further improvement could potentially be achieved by strictly adhering to PRISMA guideline and having “a priori” protocol. PMID:28439452

Apixaban for periprocedural anticoagulation during catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 1691 patients.

PubMed

Blandino, Alessandro; Bianchi, Francesca; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Grossi, Stefano; Conte, Maria Rosa; Rametta, Francesco; Gaita, Fiorenzo

2016-09-01

Apixaban, a direct factor Xa inhibitor recently approved for thromboembolic prophylaxis in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF), is increasingly used in patients undergoing catheter ablation of AF. However, large randomized studies supporting its use in the ablation context are still lacking. We undertook the present meta-analysis to assess the impact of apixaban in terms of thromboembolic and bleeding events in patients undergoing AF ablation as compared to warfarin. MEDLINE/PubMed, Cochrane Library, and references reporting AF ablation and apixaban were screened and studies included if matching inclusion and exclusion criteria. One randomized and five nonrandomized studies were included in the analysis. Patients enrolled were 1691 patients (668 on apixaban and 1023 on warfarin). There was no heterogeneity in all the outcome comparisons. No deaths were reported. We did not observe any difference between apixaban and warfarin with respect to thromboembolic events (OR = 1.10, 95 % CI 0.24-5.16), major bleedings (OR = 1.56, 95 % CI 0.59-4.13), cardiac tamponade (OR 1.69, 95 % CI 0.52-5.54), minor bleedings (OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.58-1.59), and the composite endpoint of death, thromboembolic events, and bleedings (OR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.65-1.64). The rates of death, thromboembolic events, major bleedings including cardiac tamponade, and minor bleedings in patients on apixaban undergoing AF ablation are very low and similar to that seen in patients treated with uninterrupted warfarin. Although primary driven by nonrandomized studies, these results support apixaban as periprocedural anticoagulation during AF ablation procedures.

Efficacy of amiodarone and lidocaine for preventing ventricular fibrillation after aortic cross-clamp release in open heart surgery: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Zheng, Yong; Gu, Qiang; Chen, Hong-Wu; Peng, Huai-Ming; Jia, Dong-Yu; Zhou, Yu; Xiang, Mei-Xiang

The relative preventative efficacy of amiodarone and lidocaine for ventricular fibrillation (VF) after release of an aortic cross-clamp (ACC) during open heart surgery has not been determined. This meta-analysis was designed to systematically evaluate the influence of amiodarone, lidocaine, or placebo on the incidence of VF after ACC. Prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the VF-preventative effects of amiodarone with lidocaine, or amiodarone or lidocaine with placebo were included. PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant RCTs. Fixed or randomized effect models were applied according to the heterogeneity of the data from the selected studies. We included eight RCTs in the analysis. Pooled results suggested that the preventative effects of amiodarone and lidocaine were comparable (relative risk (RR)=1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70 to 1.80, P=0.63), but both were superior to the placebo (amiodarone, RR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.51 to 1.00, P=0.05; lidocaine, RR=0.63, 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.88, P=0.006). The percentage of patients requiring electric defibrillation counter shocks (DCSs) did not differ significantly among patients administered amiodarone (RR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.04 to 1.19, P=0.08), lidocaine (RR=2.44, 95% CI: 0.13 to 44.02, P=0.55), or the placebo (RR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.25 to 1.25, P=0.16). Amiodarone and lidocaine are comparably effective in preventing VF after ACC, but the percentage of patients who subsequently require DCSs does not differ among those administered amiodarone, lidocaine, or placebo.

Teaching meta-analysis using MetaLight.

PubMed

Thomas, James; Graziosi, Sergio; Higgins, Steve; Coe, Robert; Torgerson, Carole; Newman, Mark

2012-10-18

Meta-analysis is a statistical method for combining the results of primary studies. It is often used in systematic reviews and is increasingly a method and topic that appears in student dissertations. MetaLight is a freely available software application that runs simple meta-analyses and contains specific functionality to facilitate the teaching and learning of meta-analysis. While there are many courses and resources for meta-analysis available and numerous software applications to run meta-analyses, there are few pieces of software which are aimed specifically at helping those teaching and learning meta-analysis. Valuable teaching time can be spent learning the mechanics of a new software application, rather than on the principles and practices of meta-analysis. We discuss ways in which the MetaLight tool can be used to present some of the main issues involved in undertaking and interpreting a meta-analysis. While there are many software tools available for conducting meta-analysis, in the context of a teaching programme such software can require expenditure both in terms of money and in terms of the time it takes to learn how to use it. MetaLight was developed specifically as a tool to facilitate the teaching and learning of meta-analysis and we have presented here some of the ways it might be used in a training situation.

Risk factors for intracranial hemorrhage in acute ischemic stroke patients treated with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 studies.

PubMed

Whiteley, William N; Slot, Karsten Bruins; Fernandes, Peter; Sandercock, Peter; Wardlaw, Joanna

2012-11-01

Recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) is an effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke but is associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). We sought to identify the risk factors for ICH with a systematic review of the published literature. We searched for studies of rtPA-treated stroke patients that reported an association between a variable measured before rtPA infusion and clinically important ICH (parenchymal ICH or ICH associated with clinical deterioration). We calculated associations between baseline variables and ICH with random-effect meta-analyses. We identified 55 studies that measured 43 baseline variables in 65 264 acute ischemic stroke patients. Post-rtPA ICH was associated with higher age (odds ratio, 1.03 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.04), higher stroke severity (odds ratio, 1.08 per National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale point; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.11), and higher glucose (odds ratio, 1.10 per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.14). There was approximately a doubling of the odds of ICH with the presence of atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, renal impairment, previous antiplatelet agents, leukoaraiosis, and a visible acute cerebral ischemic lesion on pretreatment brain imaging. Little of the variation in the sizes of the associations among different studies was explained by the source of the cohort, definition of ICH, or degree of adjustment for confounding variables. Individual baseline variables were modestly associated with post-rtPA ICH. Prediction of post-rtPA ICH therefore is likely to be difficult if based on single clinical or imaging factors alone. These observational data do not provide a reliable method for the individualization of treatment according to predicted ICH risk.

Efficacy and safety of direct oral anticoagulants approved for cardiovascular indications: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Makam, Raghavendra Charan P; Hoaglin, David C; McManus, David D; Wang, Victoria; Gore, Joel M; Spencer, Frederick A; Pradhan, Richeek; Tran, Hoang; Yu, Hong; Goldberg, Robert J

2018-01-01

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have emerged as promising alternatives to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) or venous thromboembolism (VTE). Few meta-analyses have included all DOACs that have received FDA approval for these cardiovascular indications, and their overall comparisons against VKAs have shortcomings in data and methods. We provide an updated overall assessment of the efficacy and safety of those DOACs at dosages currently approved for NVAF or VTE, in comparison with VKAs. We used data from Phase 3 randomized trials that compared an FDA-approved DOAC with VKA for primary prevention of stroke in patients with NVAF or for treatment of acute VTE. Among trial participants with NVAF, DOAC recipients had a lower risk of stroke or systemic embolism [Pooled Odds Ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (0.68-0.84)], any stroke (0.80, 0.73-0.88), systemic embolism (0.56, 0.34-0.93), and total mortality (0.89, 0.84-0.95). Safety outcomes also showed a lower risk of fatal, major, and intracranial bleeding but higher risk for gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). Patients with acute VTE randomized to DOACs had comparable risk of recurrent VTE and death (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.75-1.03), recurrent DVT (0.83, 0.66-1.05), recurrent non-fatal PE (0.97, 0.75-1.25), and total mortality (0.94, 0.79-1.12). Safety outcomes for DOACs showed a lower risk of major, fatal, and intracranial bleeding, but similar risk of GIB. Patients receiving DOACs for NVAF had predominantly superior efficacy and safety. Patients who were treated with DOACs for acute VTE had non-inferior efficacy, but an overall superior safety profile.

Using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to understand adherence to multiple evidence-based indicators in primary care: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Lawton, Rebecca; Heyhoe, Jane; Louch, Gemma; Ingleson, Emma; Glidewell, Liz; Willis, Thomas A; McEachan, Rosemary R C; Foy, Robbie

2016-08-08

There are recognised gaps between evidence and practice in general practice, a setting posing particular implementation challenges. We earlier screened clinical guideline recommendations to derive a set of 'high-impact' indicators based upon criteria including potential for significant patient benefit, scope for improved practice and amenability to measurement using routinely collected data. Here, we explore health professionals' perceived determinants of adherence to these indicators, examining the degree to which determinants were indicator-specific or potentially generalisable across indicators. We interviewed 60 general practitioners, practice nurses and practice managers in West Yorkshire, the UK, about adherence to four indicators: avoidance of risky prescribing; treatment targets in type 2 diabetes; blood pressure targets in treated hypertension; and anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation. Interview questions drew upon the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). Data were analysed using framework analysis. Professional role and identity and environmental context and resources featured prominently across all indicators whilst the importance of other domains, for example, beliefs about consequences, social influences and knowledge varied across indicators. We identified five meta-themes representing more general organisational and contextual factors common to all indicators. The TDF helped elicit a wide range of reported determinants of adherence to 'high-impact' indicators in primary care. It was more difficult to pinpoint which determinants, if targeted by an implementation strategy, would maximise change. The meta-themes broadly underline the need to align the design of interventions targeting general practices with higher level supports and broader contextual considerations. However, our findings suggest that it is feasible to develop interventions to promote the uptake of different evidence-based indicators which share common features whilst also including content-specific adaptations.

Evidence for the Efficacy of Systemic Opioid-Sparing Analgesics in Pediatric Surgical Populations: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Zhu, Alyssa; Benzon, Hubert A; Anderson, T Anthony

2017-11-01

While a large number of studies has examined the efficacy of opioid-sparing analgesics in adult surgical populations, fewer studies are available to guide postoperative pain treatment in pediatric patients. We systematically reviewed available publications on the use of systemic nonopioid agents for postoperative analgesia in pediatric surgical populations. A comprehensive literature search identified meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effects of systemic, nonopioid agents on postoperative narcotic requirements or pain scores in pediatric surgical populations. If a meta-analysis was located, we summarized its results and any RCTs published after it. We located and reviewed 11 acetaminophen RCTs, 1 nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) meta-analysis, 2 NSAID RCTs, 1 dexamethasone meta-analysis, 3 dexamethasone RCTs, 2 ketamine meta-analyses, 5 ketamine RCTs, 2 gabapentin RCTs, 1 clonidine meta-analysis, 3 magnesium RCTs, 2 dexmedetomidine meta-analyses, and 1 dextromethorphan RCT. No meta-analyses or RCTs were found assessing the perioperative efficacy of intravenous lidocaine, amantadine, pregabalin, esmolol, or caffeine in pediatric surgical patients. The available evidence is limited, but suggests that perioperative acetaminophen, NSAIDs, dexamethasone, ketamine, clonidine, and dexmedetomidine may decrease postoperative pain and opioid consumption in some pediatric surgical populations. Not enough, or no, data exist from which to draw conclusions on the perioperative use of gabapentin, magnesium, dextromethorphan, lidocaine, amantadine, pregabalin, esmolol, and caffeine in pediatric surgical patients. Further pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics studies to establish both the clinical benefit and efficacy of nonopioid analgesia in pediatric populations are needed.

Effects of atypical antipsychotic drugs on QT interval in patients with mental disorders

PubMed Central

Aronow, Wilbert S.

2018-01-01

Background Drug-induced QT prolongation is associated with higher risk of cardiac arrhythmias and cardiovascular mortality. We investigated the effects of atypical antipsychotic drugs on QT interval in children and adults with mental disorders. Methods We conducted random-effects direct frequentist meta-analyses of aggregate data from randomized controlled trials (RCT) and appraised the quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Our search in PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, clinicaltrials.gov, and PharmaPendium up to October 2017 identified studies that examined aripiprazole, quetiapine, risperidone, olanzapine, ziprasidone and brexpiprazole. Results Low quality evidence suggests that aripiprazole (four meta-analyses and twelve RCTs), brexpiprazole (one systematic review and four RCTs) or olanzapine (five meta-analyses and twenty RCTs) do not increase QT interval. Low quality evidence suggests that ziprasidone (five meta-analyses and 11 RCTs) increases QT interval and the rates of QT prolongation while risperidone (four meta-analyses, 70 RCTs) and quetiapine (two meta-analyses and seven RCTs) are associated with QT prolongation and greater odds of torsades de pointes ventricular tachycardia especially in cases of drug overdose. Conclusions The main conclusion of our study is that in people with mental disorders and under treatment with atypical antipsychotic drugs, in order to avoid QT prolongation and reduce the risk of ventricular tachycardia clinicians may recommend aripiprazole, brexpiprazole or olanzapine in licensed doses. Long-term comparative safety needs to be established. PMID:29862236

Effectiveness and harms of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines in children, adults and elderly

PubMed Central

Manzoli, Lamberto; Ioannidis, John P.A.; Flacco, Maria Elena; De Vito, Corrado; Villari, Paolo

2012-01-01

Fifteen meta-analyses have been published between 1995 and 2011 to evaluate the efficacy/effectiveness and harms of diverse influenza vaccines—seasonal, H5N1 and 2009(H1N1) —in various age-classes (healthy children, adults or elderly). These meta-analyses have often adopted different analyses and study selection criteria. Because it is difficult to have a clear picture of vaccine benefits and harms examining single systematic reviews, we compiled the main findings and evaluated which could be the most reasonable explanations for some differences in findings (or their interpretation) across previously published meta-analyses. For each age group, we performed analyses that included all trials that had been included in at least one relevant meta-analysis, also exploring whether effect sizes changed over time. Although we identified several discrepancies among the meta-analyses on seasonal vaccines for children and elderly, overall most seasonal influenza vaccines showed statistically significant efficacy/effectiveness, which was acceptable or high for laboratory-confirmed cases and of modest magnitude for clinically-confirmed cases. The available evidence on parenteral inactivated vaccines for children aged < 2 y remains scarce. Pre-pandemic “avian” H5N1 and pandemic 2009 (H1N1) vaccines can achieve satisfactory immunogenicity, but no meta-analysis has addressed H1N1 vaccination impact on clinical outcomes. Data on harms are overall reassuring, but their value is diminished by inconsistent reporting. PMID:22777099

Investigation of 2-stage meta-analysis methods for joint longitudinal and time-to-event data through simulation and real data application.

PubMed

Sudell, Maria; Tudur Smith, Catrin; Gueyffier, François; Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi

2018-04-15

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is often preferred over separate longitudinal or time-to-event analyses as it can account for study dropout, error in longitudinally measured covariates, and correlation between longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes. The joint modelling literature focuses mainly on the analysis of single studies with no methods currently available for the meta-analysis of joint model estimates from multiple studies. We propose a 2-stage method for meta-analysis of joint model estimates. These methods are applied to the INDANA dataset to combine joint model estimates of systolic blood pressure with time to death, time to myocardial infarction, and time to stroke. Results are compared to meta-analyses of separate longitudinal or time-to-event models. A simulation study is conducted to contrast separate versus joint analyses over a range of scenarios. Using the real dataset, similar results were obtained by using the separate and joint analyses. However, the simulation study indicated a benefit of use of joint rather than separate methods in a meta-analytic setting where association exists between the longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes. Where evidence of association between longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes exists, results from joint models over standalone analyses should be pooled in 2-stage meta-analyses. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling. PMID:22013891

Reevaluating the effectiveness of n-back training on transfer through the Bayesian lens: Support for the null.

PubMed

Dougherty, Michael R; Hamovitz, Toby; Tidwell, Joe W

2016-02-01

A recent meta-analysis by Au et al. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 22, 366-377, (2015) reviewed the n-back training paradigm for working memory (WM) and evaluated whether (when aggregating across existing studies) there was evidence that gains obtained for training tasks transferred to gains in fluid intelligence (Gf). Their results revealed an overall effect size of g = 0.24 for the effect of n-back training on Gf. We reexamine the data through a Bayesian lens, to evaluate the relative strength of the evidence for the alternative versus null hypotheses, contingent on the type of control condition used. We find that studies using a noncontact (passive) control group strongly favor the alternative hypothesis that training leads to transfer but that studies using active-control groups show modest evidence in favor of the null. We discuss these findings in the context of placebo effects.

The monomeric, tetrameric, and fibrillar organization of Fib: the dynamic building block of the bacterial linear motor of Spiroplasma melliferum BC3.

PubMed

Cohen-Krausz, Sara; Cabahug, Pamela C; Trachtenberg, Shlomo

2011-07-08

Spiroplasmas belong to the class Mollicutes, representing the minimal, free-living, and self-replicating forms of life. Spiroplasmas are helical wall-less bacteria and the only ones known to swim by means of a linear motor (rather than the near-universal rotary bacterial motor). The linear motor follows the shortest path along the cell's helical membranal tube. The motor is composed of a flat monolayered ribbon of seven parallel fibrils and is believed to function in controlling cell helicity and motility through dynamic, coordinated, differential length changes in the fibrils. The latter cause local perturbations of helical symmetry, which are essential for net directional displacement in environments with a low Reynolds number. The underlying fibrils' core building block is a circular tetramer of the 59-kDa protein Fib. The fibrils' differential length changes are believed to be driven by molecular switching of Fib, leading consequently to axial ratio and length changes in tetrameric rings. Using cryo electron microscopy, diffractometry, single-particle analysis of isolated ribbons, and sequence analyses of Fib, we determined the overall molecular organization of the Fib monomer, tetramer, fibril, and linear motor of Spiroplasma melliferum BC3 that underlies cell geometry and motility. Fib appears to be a bidomained molecule, of which the N-terminal half is apparently a globular phosphorylase. By a combination of reversible rotation and diagonal shift of Fib monomers, the tetramer adopts either a cross-like nonhanded conformation or a ring-like handed conformation. The sense of Fib rotation may determine the handedness of the linear motor and, eventually, of the cell. A further change in the axial ratio of the ring-like tetramers controls fibril lengths and the consequent helical geometry. Analysis of tetramer quadrants from adjacent fibrils clearly demonstrates local differential fibril lengths. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

Conducting meta-analyses of HIV prevention literatures from a theory-testing perspective.

PubMed

Marsh, K L; Johnson, B T; Carey, M P

2001-09-01

Using illustrations from HIV prevention research, the current article advocates approaching meta-analysis as a theory-testing scientific method rather than as merely a set of rules for quantitative analysis. Like other scientific methods, meta-analysis has central concerns with internal, external, and construct validity. The focus of a meta-analysis should only rarely be merely describing the effects of health promotion, but rather should be on understanding and explaining phenomena and the processes underlying them. The methodological decisions meta-analysts make in conducting reviews should be guided by a consideration of the underlying goals of the review (e.g., simply effect size estimation or, preferably theory testing). From the advocated perspective that a health behavior meta-analyst should test theory, the authors present a number of issues to be considered during the conduct of meta-analyses.

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-01-01

Objectives To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. Design A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Participants Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Interventions Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a ‘Mediterranean’ dietary pattern. Outcome measures The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. Results From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19–23%. Conclusions The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26260349

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

PubMed

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-08-10

To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a 'Mediterranean' dietary pattern. The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A 'de novo' meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another 'de novo' meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19-23%. The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Journal article reporting standards for quantitative research in psychology: The APA Publications and Communications Board task force report.

PubMed

Appelbaum, Mark; Cooper, Harris; Kline, Rex B; Mayo-Wilson, Evan; Nezu, Arthur M; Rao, Stephen M

2018-01-01

Following a review of extant reporting standards for scientific publication, and reviewing 10 years of experience since publication of the first set of reporting standards by the American Psychological Association (APA; APA Publications and Communications Board Working Group on Journal Article Reporting Standards, 2008), the APA Working Group on Quantitative Research Reporting Standards recommended some modifications to the original standards. Examples of modifications include division of hypotheses, analyses, and conclusions into 3 groupings (primary, secondary, and exploratory) and some changes to the section on meta-analysis. Several new modules are included that report standards for observational studies, clinical trials, longitudinal studies, replication studies, and N-of-1 studies. In addition, standards for analytic methods with unique characteristics and output (structural equation modeling and Bayesian analysis) are included. These proposals were accepted by the Publications and Communications Board of APA and supersede the standards included in the 6th edition of the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (APA, 2010). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Additional considerations are required when preparing a protocol for a systematic review with multiple interventions.

PubMed

Chaimani, Anna; Caldwell, Deborah M; Li, Tianjing; Higgins, Julian P T; Salanti, Georgia

2017-03-01

The number of systematic reviews that aim to compare multiple interventions using network meta-analysis is increasing. In this study, we highlight aspects of a standard systematic review protocol that may need modification when multiple interventions are to be compared. We take the protocol format suggested by Cochrane for a standard systematic review as our reference and compare the considerations for a pairwise review with those required for a valid comparison of multiple interventions. We suggest new sections for protocols of systematic reviews including network meta-analyses with a focus on how to evaluate their assumptions. We provide example text from published protocols to exemplify the considerations. Standard systematic review protocols for pairwise meta-analyses need extensions to accommodate the increased complexity of network meta-analysis. Our suggested modifications are widely applicable to both Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews involving network meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quality control and conduct of genome-wide association meta-analyses.

PubMed

Winkler, Thomas W; Day, Felix R; Croteau-Chonka, Damien C; Wood, Andrew R; Locke, Adam E; Mägi, Reedik; Ferreira, Teresa; Fall, Tove; Graff, Mariaelisa; Justice, Anne E; Luan, Jian'an; Gustafsson, Stefan; Randall, Joshua C; Vedantam, Sailaja; Workalemahu, Tsegaselassie; Kilpeläinen, Tuomas O; Scherag, André; Esko, Tonu; Kutalik, Zoltán; Heid, Iris M; Loos, Ruth J F

2014-05-01

Rigorous organization and quality control (QC) are necessary to facilitate successful genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) of statistics aggregated across multiple genome-wide association studies. This protocol provides guidelines for (i) organizational aspects of GWAMAs, and for (ii) QC at the study file level, the meta-level across studies and the meta-analysis output level. Real-world examples highlight issues experienced and solutions developed by the GIANT Consortium that has conducted meta-analyses including data from 125 studies comprising more than 330,000 individuals. We provide a general protocol for conducting GWAMAs and carrying out QC to minimize errors and to guarantee maximum use of the data. We also include details for the use of a powerful and flexible software package called EasyQC. Precise timings will be greatly influenced by consortium size. For consortia of comparable size to the GIANT Consortium, this protocol takes a minimum of about 10 months to complete.

Quality control and conduct of genome-wide association meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Winkler, Thomas W; Day, Felix R; Croteau-Chonka, Damien C; Wood, Andrew R; Locke, Adam E; Mägi, Reedik; Ferreira, Teresa; Fall, Tove; Graff, Mariaelisa; Justice, Anne E; Luan, Jian'an; Gustafsson, Stefan; Randall, Joshua C; Vedantam, Sailaja; Workalemahu, Tsegaselassie; Kilpeläinen, Tuomas O; Scherag, André; Esko, Tonu; Kutalik, Zoltán; Heid, Iris M; Loos, Ruth JF

2014-01-01

Rigorous organization and quality control (QC) are necessary to facilitate successful genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) of statistics aggregated across multiple genome-wide association studies. This protocol provides guidelines for [1] organizational aspects of GWAMAs, and for [2] QC at the study file level, the meta-level across studies, and the meta-analysis output level. Real–world examples highlight issues experienced and solutions developed by the GIANT Consortium that has conducted meta-analyses including data from 125 studies comprising more than 330,000 individuals. We provide a general protocol for conducting GWAMAs and carrying out QC to minimize errors and to guarantee maximum use of the data. We also include details for use of a powerful and flexible software package called EasyQC. For consortia of comparable size to the GIANT consortium, the present protocol takes a minimum of about 10 months to complete. PMID:24762786

A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkle, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a first step towards the genetic mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. ...

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

PubMed

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from data can be used to learn from censored survival data in the presence of light censoring (up to 20%) by treating censored cases as event-free. Given intermediate or heavy censoring, the learnt models become tuned to the majority class and would thus require a different approach.

Ataxia Telangiectasia–Mutated Gene Polymorphisms and Acute Normal Tissue Injuries in Cancer Patients After Radiation Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lihua; Cui, Jingkun; Tang, Fengjiao

Purpose: Studies of the association between ataxia telangiectasia–mutated (ATM) gene polymorphisms and acute radiation injuries are often small in sample size, and the results are inconsistent. We conducted the first meta-analysis to provide a systematic review of published findings. Methods and Materials: Publications were identified by searching PubMed up to April 25, 2014. Primary meta-analysis was performed for all acute radiation injuries, and subgroup meta-analyses were based on clinical endpoint. The influence of sample size and radiation injury incidence on genetic effects was estimated in sensitivity analyses. Power calculations were also conducted. Results: The meta-analysis was conducted on the ATMmore » polymorphism rs1801516, including 5 studies with 1588 participants. For all studies, the cut-off for differentiating cases from controls was grade 2 acute radiation injuries. The primary meta-analysis showed a significant association with overall acute radiation injuries (allelic model: odds ratio = 1.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.71). Subgroup analyses detected an association between the rs1801516 polymorphism and a significant increase in urinary and lower gastrointestinal injuries and an increase in skin injury that was not statistically significant. There was no between-study heterogeneity in any meta-analyses. In the sensitivity analyses, small studies did not show larger effects than large studies. In addition, studies with high incidence of acute radiation injuries showed larger effects than studies with low incidence. Power calculations revealed that the statistical power of the primary meta-analysis was borderline, whereas there was adequate power for the subgroup analysis of studies with high incidence of acute radiation injuries. Conclusions: Our meta-analysis showed a consistency of the results from the overall and subgroup analyses. We also showed that the genetic effect of the rs1801516 polymorphism on acute radiation injuries was dependent on the incidence of the injury. These support the evidence of an association between the rs1801516 polymorphism and acute radiation injuries, encouraging further research of this topic.« less

Development of the Veritas plot and its application in cardiac surgery: an evidence-synthesis graphic tool for the clinician to assess multiple meta-analyses reporting on a common outcome.

PubMed

Panesar, Sukhmeet S; Rao, Christopher; Vecht, Joshua A; Mirza, Saqeb B; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Morris, Richard; Rosenthal, Joe; Darzi, Ara; Athanasiou, Thanos

2009-10-01

Meta-analyses may be prone to generating misleading results because of a paucity of experimental studies (especially in surgery); publication bias; and heterogeneity in study design, intervention and the patient population of included studies. When investigating a specific clinical or scientific question on which several relevant meta-analyses may have been published, value judgments must be applied to determine which analysis represents the most robust evidence. These value judgments should be specifically acknowledged. We designed the Veritas plot to explicitly explore important elements of quality and to facilitate decision-making by highlighting specific areas in which meta-analyses are found to be deficient. Furthermore, as a graphic tool, it may be more intuitive than when similar data are presented in a tabular or text format. The Veritas plot is an adaption of the radar plot, a graphic tool for the description of multiattribute data. Key elements of meta-analytical quality such as heterogeneity, publication bias and study design are assessed. Existing qualitative methods such as the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool have been incorporated in addition to important considerations when interpreting surgical meta-analyses such as the year of publication and population characteristics. To demonstrate the potential of the Veritas plot to inform clinical practice, we apply the Veritas plot to the meta-analytical literature comparing the incidence of 30-day stroke in off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery and conventional coronary artery bypass surgery. We demonstrate that a visually-stimulating and practical evidence-synthesis tool can direct the clinician and scientist to a particular meta-analytical study to inform clinical practice. The Veritas plot is also cumulative and allowed us to assess the quality of evidence over time. We have presented a practical graphic application for scientists and clinicians to identify and interpret variability in meta-analyses. Although further validation of the Veritas plot is required, it may have the potential to contribute to the implementation of evidence-based practice.

Meta-Analysis at Middle Age: A Personal History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glass, Gene V.

2015-01-01

The 40-year history of meta-analysis is traced from the vantage point of one of its originators. Research syntheses leading to the first examples of meta-analysis are identified. Early meta-analyses of the literature on psychotherapy outcomes and school class size are recounted. The influence on the development of meta-analysis of several…

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Consistency and accuracy of indexing systematic review articles and meta-analyses in medline.

PubMed

Wilczynski, Nancy L; Haynes, R Brian

2009-09-01

Systematic review articles support the advance of science and translation of research evidence into healthcare practice. Inaccurate retrieval from medline could limit access to reviews. To determine the quality of indexing systematic reviews and meta-analyses in medline. The Clinical Hedges Database, containing the results of a hand search of 161 journals, was used to test medline indexing terms for their ability to retrieve systematic reviews that met predefined methodologic criteria (labelled as 'pass' review articles) and reviews that reported a meta-analysis. The Clinical Hedges Database contained 49 028 articles; 753 were 'pass' review articles (552 with a meta-analysis). In total 758 review articles (independent of whether they passed) reported a meta-analysis. The search strategy that retrieved the highest number of 'pass' systematic reviews achieved a sensitivity of 97.1%. The publication type 'meta analysis' had a false positive rate of 5.6% (95% CI 3.9 to 7.6), and false negative rate of 0.31% (95% CI 0.26 to 0.36) for retrieving systematic reviews that reported a meta-analysis. Inaccuracies in indexing systematic reviews and meta-analyses in medline can be partly overcome by a 5-term search strategy. Introducing a publication type for systematic reviews of the literature could improve retrieval performance.

Endorsement of PRISMA statement and quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in nursing journals: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Tam, Wilson W S; Lo, Kenneth K H; Khalechelvam, Parames

2017-01-01

Objective Systematic reviews (SRs) often poorly report key information, thereby diminishing their usefulness. Previous studies evaluated published SRs and determined that they failed to meet explicit criteria or characteristics. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement was recommended as a reporting guideline for SR and meta-analysis (MA), but previous studies showed that adherence to the statement was not high for SRs published in different medical fields. Thus, the aims of this study are twofold: (1) to investigate the number of nursing journals that have required or recommended the use of the PRISMA statement for reporting SR, and (2) to examine the adherence of SRs and/or meta-analyses to the PRISMA statement published in nursing journals. Design A cross-sectional study. Methods Nursing journals listed in the ISI journal citation report were divided into 2 groups based on the recommendation of PRISMA statement in their ‘Instruction for Authors’. SRs and meta-analyses published in 2014 were searched in 3 databases. 37 SRs and meta-analyses were randomly selected in each group. The adherence of each item to the PRISMA was examined and summarised using descriptive statistics. The quality of the SRs was assessed by Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews. The differences between the 2 groups were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results Out of 107 nursing journals, 30 (28.0%) recommended or required authors to follow the PRISMA statement when they submit SRs or meta-analyses. The median rates of adherence to the PRISMA statement for reviews published in journals with and without PRISMA endorsement were 64.9% (IQR: 17.6–92.3%) and 73.0% (IQR: 59.5–94.6%), respectively. No significant difference was observed in any of the items between the 2 groups. Conclusions The median adherence of SRs and meta-analyses in nursing journals to PRISMA is low at 64.9% and 73.0%, respectively. Nonetheless, the adherence level of nursing journals to the PRISMA statement does not significantly vary whether they endorse or recommend such a guideline. PMID:28174224

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-03-06

Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors) and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors). We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D 2 ) measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated that the Trial Sequential Analysis provides better control of type I errors and of type II errors than the traditional naïve meta-analysis. Trial Sequential Analysis represents analysis of meta-analytic data, with transparent assumptions, and better control of type I and type II errors than the traditional meta-analysis using naïve unadjusted confidence intervals.

Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases.

PubMed

Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine; Boraud, Thomas; Munafo, Marcus; Gonon, François

2016-01-01

There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems. Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and "others"). We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%. Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and "true" effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor. The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains.

Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases

PubMed Central

Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine; Boraud, Thomas; Munafo, Marcus; Gonon, François

2016-01-01

Context There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems. Objective Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and “others”). Methods We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%. Results Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and “true” effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor. Conclusion The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains. PMID:27336301