Pesticide authorization in the EU-environment unprotected?

PubMed

Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

2015-12-01

Pesticides constitute an integral part of high-intensity European agriculture. Prior to their authorization, a highly elaborated environmental risk assessment is mandatory according to EU pesticide legislation, i.e., Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009. However, no field data-based evaluation of the risk assessment outcome, i.e., the regulatory acceptable concentrations (RACs), and therefore of the overall protectiveness of EU pesticide regulations exists. We conducted here a comprehensive meta-analysis using peer-reviewed literature on agricultural insecticide concentrations in EU surface waters and evaluated associated risks using the RACs derived from official European pesticide registration documents. As a result, 44.7 % of the 1566 cases of measured insecticide concentrations (MICs) in EU surface waters exceeded their respective RACs. It follows that current EU pesticide regulations do not protect the aquatic environment and that insecticides threaten aquatic biodiversity. RAC exceedances were significantly higher for insecticides authorized using conservative tier-I RACs and for more recently developed insecticide classes, i.e., pyrethroids. In addition, we identified higher risks, e.g., for smaller surface waters that are specifically considered in the regulatory risk assessment schemes. We illustrate the shortcomings of the EU regulatory risk assessment using two case studies that contextualize the respective risk assessment outcomes to field exposure. Overall, our meta-analysis challenges the field relevance and protectiveness of the regulatory environmental risk assessment conducted for pesticide authorization in the EU and indicates that critical revisions of related pesticide regulations and effective mitigation measures are urgently needed to substantially reduce the environmental risks arising from agricultural insecticide use.

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Reconciling laboratory and field assessments of neonicotinoid toxicity to honeybees

PubMed Central

Henry, Mickaël; Cerrutti, Nicolas; Aupinel, Pierrick; Decourtye, Axel; Gayrard, Mélanie; Odoux, Jean-François; Pissard, Aurélien; Rüger, Charlotte; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2015-01-01

European governments have banned the use of three common neonicotinoid pesticides due to insufficiently identified risks to bees. This policy decision is controversial given the absence of clear consistency between toxicity assessments of those substances in the laboratory and in the field. Although laboratory trials report deleterious effects in honeybees at trace levels, field surveys reveal no decrease in the performance of honeybee colonies in the vicinity of treated fields. Here we provide the missing link, showing that individual honeybees near thiamethoxam-treated fields do indeed disappear at a faster rate, but the impact of this is buffered by the colonies' demographic regulation response. Although we could ascertain the exposure pathway of thiamethoxam residues from treated flowers to honeybee dietary nectar, we uncovered an unexpected pervasive co-occurrence of similar concentrations of imidacloprid, another neonicotinoid normally restricted to non-entomophilous crops in the study country. Thus, its origin and transfer pathways through the succession of annual crops need be elucidated to conveniently appraise the risks of combined neonicotinoid exposures. This study reconciles the conflicting laboratory and field toxicity assessments of neonicotinoids on honeybees and further highlights the difficulty in actually detecting non-intentional effects on the field through conventional risk assessment methods. PMID:26582026

[Risk assessment and control strategies of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements].

PubMed

Zhao, Zi-Hua; Zhang, Rong; He, Da-Han; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Zhang, Zong-Shan

2009-04-01

In the risk assessment of pests, both the community structure and the environmental factors should be considered at the same time, because of their mutual effects on the outbreak of disaster pests. This paper established a comprehensive assessment system, including 2 sub-systems, 5 respects, and 14 indices. In the meanwhile, risk assessment indices and experience formula were used to analyze the risk degree of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements. It was found that using risk assessment indices and experience formula could obtain similar results. In abandoned field, Aceria palida, Aphis sp., and Paratrioza sinica were the frequent disaster pests, Lema decempunctata, Neoceratitis asiatica, Jaapiella sp., and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests, and Psylliodes obscurofaciata and Phthorimaea sp. were general pests. In organic field, the frequent disaster pests were the same species as those in abandoned field, while P. indicus, Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. In chemical control field, A. palida, Aphis sp., P. sinica, and P. indicus were the frequent disaster pests, while Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. Optimal 5 separations most fitted the division of pest sub-communities in L. barbarum fields, which were infancy period (from March 28 to April 15), outbreak I period (from April 15 to July 18), dormancy period (from July 18 to September 8), outbreak II period (from September 8 to October 15), and recession period (after October 15). The matrix of correlation coefficient showed that the dynamics of pests in L. barbarum fields under different managements were significantly correlated with each other, suggesting that the dynamics of pest populations was similar in different L. barbarum fields, which had two population establishment stages and one exponential growth stage in every year. The optimal controlling stages were from late infancy period to early and middle outbreak I periods, and from late dormancy period to early outbreak II period, which were very critical for pest control.

Pesticide risk assessment in free-ranging bees is weather and landscape dependent.

PubMed

Henry, Mickaël; Bertrand, Colette; Le Féon, Violette; Requier, Fabrice; Odoux, Jean-François; Aupinel, Pierrick; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Decourtye, Axel

2014-07-10

The risk assessment of plant protection products on pollinators is currently based on the evaluation of lethal doses through repeatable lethal toxicity laboratory trials. Recent advances in honeybee toxicology have, however, raised interest on assessing sublethal effects in free-ranging individuals. Here, we show that the sublethal effects of a neonicotinoid pesticide are modified in magnitude by environmental interactions specific to the landscape and time of exposure events. Field sublethal assessment is therefore context dependent and should be addressed in a temporally and spatially explicit way, especially regarding weather and landscape physiognomy. We further develop an analytical Effective Dose (ED) framework to help disentangle context-induced from treatment-induced effects and thus to alleviate uncertainty in field studies. Although the ED framework involves trials at concentrations above the expected field exposure levels, it allows to explicitly delineating the climatic and landscape contexts that should be targeted for in-depth higher tier risk assessment.

Application of epigenetic data in human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Cote, Ila L; McCullough, Shaun D; Hines, Ronald N; Vandenberg, John J

2017-11-06

Despite the many recent advances in the field of epigenetics, application of this knowledge in environmental health risk assessment has been limited. In this paper, we identify opportunities for application of epigenetic data to support health risk assessment. We consider current applications and present a vision for the future.

Focal species candidates for pesticide risk assessment in European rice fields: A review.

PubMed

Vallon, Martin; Dietzen, Christian; Laucht, Silke; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter

2018-04-25

An assessment of potential risks of pesticides on wildlife is required during the process of product registration within Europe because of the importance of agricultural landscapes as wildlife habitats. Despite their peculiarity and their specific role as artificial wetlands, rice paddies are to date pooled with cereals in guidance documents on how to conduct risk assessments for birds and mammals in Europe. Hence, the focal species currently considered in risk assessments for rice paddies are those known from cereal fields and can therefore be expected to differ significantly from the species actually occurring in the wet environments of rice paddies. We present results of a comprehensive review on bird and mammal species regularly occurring in rice paddies during a time of potential pesticide exposure to identify appropriate focal species candidates for ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). In addition, we present data on rice cultivation areas and agricultural practices in Europe to give background information supporting the species selection process. Our literature search identified a general scarcity of relevant data, particularly for mammals, which highlights the need for crop-specific focal species studies. However, our results clearly indicate that the relevant bird and mammal species in rice fields indeed differ strongly from the focal species used for the cereal risk assessment. They can thus be used as a baseline for more realistic wildlife risk assessments specific to rice and the development of a revised guidance document to bridge the gap for regulatory decision makers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;00:000-000. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Functional Assessment-Based Interventions for Students with or At-Risk for High-Incidence Disabilities: Field Testing Single-Case Synthesis Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Common, Eric Alan; Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Pustejovsky, James E.; Johnson, Austin H.; Johl, Liane Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This systematic review investigated one systematic approach to designing, implementing, and evaluating functional assessment-based interventions (FABI) for use in supporting school-age students with or at-risk for high-incidence disabilities. We field tested several recently developed methods for single-case design syntheses. First, we appraised…

VULNERABILITY AS A FUNCTION OF INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP RESOURCES IN CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Background: The field of risk assessment has focused on protecting the health of individual people or populations of wildlife from single risks, mostly from chemical exposure. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently began to address multiple risks to communities in the ...

Jason Fields | NREL

Science.gov Websites

assessment and risk analysis. His research interests include instrumentation, mesoscale-microscale coupling , uncertainty analysis, and risk assessment. Jason is also the U.S. representative on several international

Microplastics in the environment: What can we learn from a decade of engineered nanoparticle fate and risk assessment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüffer, T.; Praetorius, A.; Wagner, S.; von der Kammer, F.; Hofmann, T.

2016-12-01

The field of environmental fate and risk assessment is frequently dominated by "hot topics" of emerging contaminants; in recent years for example pharmaceuticals, nanomaterials or, most recently, microplastics. Since no emerging pollutant is entirely new, a careful assessment of existing knowledge on related substances can help us direct our research efforts and employ the limited resources in a more efficient way. Crucial questions on the environmental implications of microplastics, for example the need for analytical tools, adequate protocols to study their fate, or the effects of aging and a risk assessment based thereon remain largely unanswered. Over the last decade, the field of environmental implications of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) has been facing similar challenges. The goal of this contribution is to suggest a road-map to pursue the risk assessment of microplastics based on our experience in one decade in ENPs research. We highlight how to avoid potential dead-ends in microplastics research. We also illustrate that cross-linking other research fields, especially polymer chemistry and material sciences, may facilitate filling the urgent knowledge gaps.

Risk assessment in infrastructure in educational institution: A study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasdan Ismail, Ahmad; Adilah Hamzah, Noor; Kamilah Makhtar, Nor; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Husna Che Hassan, Nurul; Arifpin Mansor, Muhamad

2017-10-01

This particular study was conducted to assess the hazard exposure in education institution and to highlight the possible risk level available. The assessment utilised is Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC). There was a 2008’s form in order to determine the risk level of the hazard. There were over 111 of education institutions were selected around Malaysia to perform this assessment. Area chosen for each institution was office, playing field, canteen, classroom, toilet and drainage. By referring HIRARC Guideline 2008, the determination of risk rank is measure based on the formula likelihood multiply severity and the rank need to refer from risk matrix standard. There are several hazard have be found and shows the high, medium and low of risk level. The higher level of risk was discussed in the study which is hazard found in playing field and hazard in office. There several hazard that need to be control by education management to avoid increase of case accident in Education Sector, Malaysia. As conclusion, the exposure hazard among the staff and educators is high and further action and control are needed. Further study need to explore the best recommendation for control measure of the hazard exposed by education institution.

Taking Stock and Taking Steps: The Case for an Adolescent Version of the Short-Assessment of Risk and Treatability

PubMed Central

Viljoen, Jodi L.; Cruise, Keith R.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Webster, Christopher

2012-01-01

The field of violence risk assessment has matured considerably, possibly advancing beyond its own adolescence. At this point in the field’s evolution, it is more important than ever for the development of any new device to be accompanied by a strong rationale and the capacity to provide a unique contribution. With this issue in mind, we first take stock of the field of adolescent risk assessment in order to describe the rapid progress that this field has made, as well as the gaps that led us to adapt the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; Webster, Martin, Brink, Nicholls, & Desmarais, 2009) for use with adolescents. We view the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV; Nicholls, Viljoen, Cruise, Desmarais, & Webster, 2010; Viljoen, Cruise, Nicholls, Desmarais, & Webster, in progress) as complementing other risk measures in four primary ways: 1) rather than focusing solely on violence risk, it examines broader adverse outcomes to which some adolescents are vulnerable (including self-harm, suicide, victimization, substance abuse, unauthorized leave, self-neglect, general offending); 2) it places a balanced emphasis on adolescents’ strengths; 3) it focuses on dynamic factors that are relevant to short-term assessment, risk management, and treatment planning; and 4) it is designed for both mental health and justice populations. We describe the developmentally-informed approach we took in the adaptation of the START for adolescents, and outline future steps for the continuing validation and refinement of the START:AV. PMID:23436982

Vortex Lattice UXO Mobility Model for Reef-Type Range Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

unexploded ordnance WAA Wide Area Assessment 10...of a given underwater UXO field. By using the upgraded UXO MM to develop an initial Wide Area Assessment (WAA), that subdivides a UXO field into... areas outside of human contact and b) areas where UXO are fully stabilized and pose little risk to humans. Further consideration of the risks presented

Reconciling laboratory and field assessments of neonicotinoid toxicity to honeybees.

PubMed

Henry, Mickaël; Cerrutti, Nicolas; Aupinel, Pierrick; Decourtye, Axel; Gayrard, Mélanie; Odoux, Jean-François; Pissard, Aurélien; Rüger, Charlotte; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2015-11-22

European governments have banned the use of three common neonicotinoid pesticides due to insufficiently identified risks to bees. This policy decision is controversial given the absence of clear consistency between toxicity assessments of those substances in the laboratory and in the field. Although laboratory trials report deleterious effects in honeybees at trace levels, field surveys reveal no decrease in the performance of honeybee colonies in the vicinity of treated fields. Here we provide the missing link, showing that individual honeybees near thiamethoxam-treated fields do indeed disappear at a faster rate, but the impact of this is buffered by the colonies' demographic regulation response. Although we could ascertain the exposure pathway of thiamethoxam residues from treated flowers to honeybee dietary nectar, we uncovered an unexpected pervasive co-occurrence of similar concentrations of imidacloprid, another neonicotinoid normally restricted to non-entomophilous crops in the study country. Thus, its origin and transfer pathways through the succession of annual crops need be elucidated to conveniently appraise the risks of combined neonicotinoid exposures. This study reconciles the conflicting laboratory and field toxicity assessments of neonicotinoids on honeybees and further highlights the difficulty in actually detecting non-intentional effects on the field through conventional risk assessment methods. © 2015 The Author(s).

Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

2014-04-03

Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

An historical overview of the activities in the field of exposure and risk assessment of non-ionizing radiation in Bulgaria.

PubMed

Israel, Michel

2015-09-01

The exposure and risk evaluation process in Bulgaria concerning non-ionizing radiation health and safety started in the early 1970s. Then, the first research laboratory "Electromagnetic fields in the working environment" was founded in the framework of the Centre of Hygiene, belonging to the Medical Academy, Sofia. The main activities were connected with developing legislation, new equipment for measurement of electromagnetic fields, new methods for measurement and exposure assessment, in vivo and human studies for developing methods, studying the effect of non-ionizing radiation on human body, developing exposure limits. Most of the occupations as metal industry, plastic welding, energetics, physiotherapy, broadcasting, telephone stations, computer industry, etc., have been covered by epidemiological investigations and risk evaluation. In 1986, the ANSI standard for safe use of lasers has been implemented as national legislation that gave the start for studies in the field of risk assessment concerning the use of lasers in industry and medicine. The environmental exposure studies started in 1991 following the very fast implementation of the telecommunication technologies. Now, funds for research are very insignificant, and studies in the field of risk assessment are very few. Nevertheless, Bulgaria has been an active member of the WHO International EMF Project, since 1997, and that gives good opportunity for collaboration with other Member states, and for implementation of new approach in the EMF policy for workers and people's protection against non-ionizing radiation exposure.

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

PubMed

Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk analysis towards conceiving the analysis as a process of creating shared knowledge among all stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Preliminary Prioritization of California Oil and Gas Fields for Regional Groundwater Monitoring Based on Intensity of Petroleum Resource Development and Proximity to Groundwater Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, T. A.; Landon, M. K.; Bennett, G.

2016-12-01

The California State Water Resources Control Board is collaborating with the U.S. Geological Survey to implement a Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) to assess where and to what degree groundwater resources may be at risk of contamination from oil and gas development activities including stimulation, well integrity issues, produced water ponds, and underground injection. A key issue in the implementation of the RMP is that the state has 487 onshore oil fields covering 8,785 square kilometers but detailed characterization work can only be done in a few oil fields annually. The first step in the RMP is to prioritize fields using available data that indicate potential risk to groundwater from oil and gas development, including vertical proximity of groundwater and oil/gas resources, density of petroleum and water wells, and volume of water injected in oil fields. This study compiled data for these factors, computed summary metrics for each oil field, analyzed statewide distributions of summary metrics, used those distributions to define relative categories of potential risk for each factor, and combined these into an overall priority ranking. Aggregated results categorized 22% (107 fields) of the total number of onshore oil and gas fields in California as high priority, 23% as moderate priority, and 55% as low priority. On an area-weighted basis, 41% of the fields ranked high, 30% moderate, and 29% low, highlighting that larger fields tend to have higher potential risk because of greater intensity of development, sometimes coupled with closer proximity to groundwater. More than half of the fields ranked as high priority were located in the southern Central Valley or the Los Angeles Basin. The prioritization does not represent an assessment of groundwater risk from oil and gas development; rather, such assessments are planned to follow based on detailed analysis of data from the RMP near the oil fields selected for study in the future.

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks frommore » radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.« less

The Modification of Biocellular Chemical Reactions by Environmental Physicochemicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishido, M.

Environmental risk factors affect human biological system to different extent from modification of biochemical reaction to cellular catastrophe. There are considerable public concerns about electromagnetic fields and endocrine disruptors. Their risk assessments have not been fully achieved because of their scientific uncertainty: electromagnetic fields just modify the bioreaction in the restricted cells and endocrine disruptors are quite unique in that their expression is dependent on the exposure periods throughout a life. Thus, we here describe their molecular characterization to establish the new risk assessments for environmental physicochemicals.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Integrated tool for risk assessment in agricultural management of soil erosion and losses of phosphorus and nitrogen.

PubMed

Bechmann, Marianne; Stålnacke, Per; Kvaernø, Sigurn; Eggestad, Hans Olav; Oygarden, Lillian

2009-01-01

In recent years, increased attention has been focused on models for risk assessment of source areas in agricultural landscapes. Among the simplest of such models are index tools, which have been developed particularly for phosphorus (P) and to some extent nitrogen (N). However, only a few studies have considered the development of an integrated management strategy that includes erosion and losses of both P and N. Accordingly, the major objective of this study was to initiate the development of an integrated risk assessment tool, consisting of indices for erosion, P and N. The strategy used to create the integrated tool was based on the assumption that all input data at field scale should be readily available either from ordinary agricultural statistics or from the farmer. The results from using the indices in a pilot case study catchment illustrated that losses of P and N had often different critical source areas. The P index was highest for fields with manure application and/or high soil P status or with autumn ploughing, and the N index was highest for fields with excessive N application. The integrated risk was greatest for areas with manure application and some areas with a high erosion risk in combination with high nutrient application rate. Additionally, four different management options were assessed: (1) reduced fertilisation, (2) catch crops, (3) autumn ploughing, and (4) no autumn ploughing. The results verified that reduced nutrient application and stubble during autumn and winter led to the largest decrease in index values, and it was also apparent that management changes in high-risk areas had the greatest impact on the indices. Overall, our findings indicate that the present integrated risk assessment tool with readily available input data can be used to rank farm fields according to risk of soil erosion and losses of P and N.

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

2014-01-01

Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

Assessing the fate and effects of an insecticidal formulation.

PubMed

de Perre, Chloé; Williard, Karl W J; Schoonover, Jon E; Young, Bryan G; Murphy, Tracye M; Lydy, Michael J

2015-01-01

A 3-yr study was conducted on a corn field in central Illinois, USA, to understand the fate and effects of an insecticidal formulation containing the active ingredients phostebupirim and cyfluthrin. The objectives were to determine the best tillage practice (conventional vs conservation tillage) in terms of grain yields and potential environmental risk, to assess insecticidal exposure using concentrations measured in soil and runoff water and sediments, to compare measured insecticidal concentrations with predicted concentrations from selected risk assessment exposure models, and to calculate toxicity benchmarks from laboratory bioassays performed on reference aquatic and terrestrial nontarget organisms, using individual active ingredients and the formulation. Corn grain yields were not significantly different based on tillage treatment. Similarly, field concentrations of insecticides were not significantly (p > 0.05) different in strip tillage versus conventional tillage, suggesting that neither of the tillage systems would enable greater environmental risk from the insecticidal formulation. Risk quotients were calculated from field concentrations and toxicity data to determine potential risk to nontarget species. The insecticidal formulation used at the recommended rate resulted in soil, sediment, and water concentrations that were potentially harmful to aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, if exposure occurred, with risk quotients up to 34. © 2014 SETAC.

Extrapolating non-target risk of Bt crops from laboratory to field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The tiered approach to assessing the ecological risk of insect-resistant transgenic crops rests on the assumption that lower-tier laboratory studies, which expose surrogate non-target organisms to insecticidal proteins, accurately predict the ecological effects of these crops under field conditions....

Evaluation of military field-water quality: Volume 9, Data for assessing health risks in potential theaters of operation for US military forces: (Final report)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, J.I.; Layton, D.W.

1988-02-01

Data are presented in this volume for assessing the health risks in populations of military personnel that could result as a consequence of exposure to field waters containing constituents or infectious organisms of military concern, which are from natural and anthropogenic sources, at levels above those recommended as field-water-quality standards (i.e., above safe levels). Turbidity and color are the physical properties that are of military concern in field water. The other constituents that are of military concern in field water are (1) total dissolved solids, (2) chloride, (3) magnesium, (4) sulfate, (5) arsenic, (6) cyanide, (7) the pesticide lindane, andmore » (8) metabolites of algae and associated bacteria. Bacteria, viruses, and parasites (e.g., protozoa and helminths) are categories of water-related infectious organisms that are of military concern. Figures were developed from dose-response data to enable military risk managers to quickly assess the potential performance-degrading effects in personnel exposed to a measured concentration of a particular constituent in field water. The general physical, chemical, and biological quality of field waters in geographic regions worldwide, representing potential theaters of operation for U.S. military forces, also are evaluated. This analysis is based on available water-quality monitoring data and indicators of likely water-quality conditions (e.g., geohydrology, climate, sanitation, industrialization, etc.). Accompanying our evaluation are maps and tables alerting military planners and risk managers to the physical, chemical, or biological quality of field water that can be expected generally in geographic regions of concern.« less

Childhood leukemia and magnetic fields in infant incubators.

PubMed

Söderberg, Karin C; Naumburg, Estelle; Anger, Gert; Cnattingius, Sven; Ekbom, Anders; Feychting, Maria

2002-01-01

In studies of magnetic field exposure and childhood leukemia, power lines and other electrical installations close to the children's homes constitute the most extensively studied source of exposure. We conducted a study to assess whether exposure to magnetic fields in infant incubators is associated with an increased leukemia risk. We identified all children with leukemia born in Sweden between 1973 and 1989 from the national Cancer Registry and selected at random one control per case, individually matched by sex and time of birth, from the study base. We retrieved information about treatment in infant incubators from medical records. We made measurements of the magnetic fields inside the incubators for each incubator model kept by the hospitals. Exposure assessment was based on measurements of the magnetic field level inside the incubator, as well as on the length of treatment. For acute lymphoblastic leukemia, the risk estimates were close to unity for all exposure definitions. For acute myeloid leukemia, we found a slightly elevated risk, but with wide confidence intervals and with no indication of dose response. Overall, our results give little evidence that exposure to magnetic fields inside infant incubators is associated with an increased risk of childhood leukemia.

Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

The role of deposits in tsunami risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.

2008-01-01

An incomplete catalogue of tsunamis in the written record hinders tsunami risk assessment. Tsunami deposits, hard evidence of tsunami, can be used to extend the written record. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent research has increased the utility of tsunami deposits in tsunami risk assessment by improving the ability to identify tsunami deposits and developing models to determine tsunami magnitude from deposit characteristics. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Reliability of risk assessment measures used in sexually violent predator proceedings.

PubMed

Miller, Cailey S; Kimonis, Eva R; Otto, Randy K; Kline, Suzonne M; Wasserman, Adam L

2012-12-01

The field interrater reliability of three assessment tools frequently used by mental health professionals when evaluating sex offenders' risk for reoffending--the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) and the Static-99-was examined within the context of sexually violent predator program proceedings. Rater agreement was highest for the Static--99 (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC₁] = .78) and lowest for the PCL-R (ICC₁ = .60; MnSOST-R ICC₁ = .74), although all instruments demonstrated lower field reliability than that reported in their test manuals. Findings raise concerns about the reliability of risk assessment tools that are used to inform judgments of risk in high-stake sexually violent predator proceedings. Implications for future research and suggestions for improving evaluator training to increase accuracy when informing legal decision making are discussed.

A weight-of-evidence approach to assessing the ecological impact of organotin pollution in Dutch marine and brackish waters; combining risk prognosis and field monitoring using common periwinkles (Littorina littorea).

PubMed

Schipper, Cor A; Smit, Mathijs G D; Kaag, Nicholas H B M; Dick Vethaak, A

2008-08-01

In the present study an integrated ecological risk assessment based on multiple lines of evidence (LOEs) was evaluated in order to better assess the risk from TBT in Dutch harbours and open coastal waters. On the basis of spatial distributions of measured tributyltin (TBT) concentrations in sediments and suspended matter, predictions of the intersex index (ISI) in Littorina littorea and the ecological risk expressed as the Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species were made. The results were compared to actual ISI measurements and presence of L. littorea in the field. The PAF calculated on the basis of TBT levels for open coastal waters ranged from 4.2% to 15.3%; for harbours it ranged from 3.5% to 26.9%. Significant intersex levels were observed only in waters where the risk was calculated above 10% PAF. This study suggests that the absence of L. littorea from some harbours with high ecological risk values can be explained by high TBT concentrations. A call is made for the use of integrated approaches like weight-of-evidence (WOE) to help practitioners improve ecological risk assessment.

75 FR 6031 - Policy Paper on Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-05

... and its relationship to several other key Agency initiatives that are currently under development and... Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural Fields, and Pesticides with No Food Uses... for comment a policy paper entitled ``Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers...

Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasanoff, S.

1993-04-01

During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topicsmore » include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.« less

Risk assessment of lambda-cyhalothrin on aquatic organisms in paddy field in China.

PubMed

Gu, Bao G; Wang, Hui M; Chen, William L; Cai, Dao J; Shan, Zheng J

2007-06-01

This study was carried out to assess the risk of lambda-cyhalothrin to aquatic organisms used in paddy field, and to provide assistance in the ecological risk management of lambda-cyhalothrin. The acute toxicities of five individual formulations of lambda-cyhalothrin to four aquatic species were investigated in the laboratory, as well as in a simulated paddy field-pond ecosystem, and the results implicated that lambda-cyhalothrin is highly toxic to fish, and to a greater extent to shrimp. There were differences in the toxicities to each aquatic organisms among different formulations. lambda-Cyhalothrin degraded rapidly in the environment, with half-lives of different formulations in paddy field water (0.23-0.53 days), pond water (0.38-0.63 days), and paddy field soil (0.96-7.35 days), respectively. The water overflow from the paddy field following a simulated rainstorm 12h after application of lambda-cyhalothrin did not cause injury to fish, clam or crab, but was severely hazardous to shrimp. Additionally, no injury to shrimp was found when simulated overflow occurred 4 days after application. These results suggest that the environmental risk of lambda-cyhalothrin to aquatic organisms can be reduced by (1) developing a relatively safe formulation such as a suspension concentrate, and/or (2) controlling the drainage time of the paddy field.

[Study on ecological risk assessment technology of fluoride pollution from arid oasis soil].

PubMed

Xue, Su-Yin; Li, Ping; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

2014-03-01

According to translocation regulation of fluoride in the typical oasis soil-plant system under field, an ecological risk assessment model of fluoride was established, and this model was used to assess ecological risk to fluoride pollution from suburban oasis soils in Baiyin City, which was specifically expressed with the potential ecological risk of bioavailability (ER(bc)) model to assess ecological risk of fluoride pollution in oasis regions. Results showed that the ecological risk indices of fluoride pollution from this region were 1.37-24.81, the level of risk at most sites was high to very high, the average ecological risk index was 11.28, belonged to very high risk. This indicated that in the suburb soil of Baiyin City needs to be concerned about the remediation of fluoride pollution.

78 FR 1856 - Availability of Draft Chemical Risk Assessments; Public Comment Opportunity

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-09

... bioaccumulation, environmental risk assessment (aquatic and terrestrial), and analytical chemistry of organic... organics, experts on use of volatiles as solvent degreasers and in the arts/crafts field, chemical...: Exposure modeling, aquatic ecotoxicology, terrestrial ecotoxicology, inorganic chemistry addressing water...

Nanotechnologies in agriculture and food - an overview of different fields of application, risk assessment and public perception.

PubMed

Grobe, Antje; Rissanen, Mikko E

2012-12-01

Nanomaterials in agriculture and food are key issues of public and regulatory interest. Over the past ten years, patents for nanotechnological applications in the field of food and agriculture have become abundant. Uncertainty prevails however regarding their current development status and presence in the consumer market. Thus, the discussion on nanotechnologies in the food sector with its specific public perception of benefits and risks and the patterns of communication are becoming similar to the debate on genetically modified organisms. The food industry's silence in communication increased mistrust of consumer organisations and policy makers. The article discusses the background of the current regulatory debates, starting with the EU recommendation for defining nanomaterials, provides an overview of possible fields of application in agriculture and food industries and discusses risk assessment and the public debate on benefits and risks. Communicative recommendations are directed at researchers, the food industry and regulators in order to increase trust both in stakeholders, risk management and regulatory processes.

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain.

PubMed

Sainz-Elipe, Sandra; Latorre, Jose Manuel; Escosa, Raul; Masià, Montserrat; Fuentes, Marius Vicent; Mas-Coma, Santiago; Bargues, Maria Dolores

2010-07-31

International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area.

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. Methods The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Results Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. Conclusions The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area. PMID:20673367

Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of full-field digital mammograms.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L; Huynh, Benjamin Q; Antropova, Natalia O

2017-10-01

To evaluate deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning are used to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images instead of using computerized radiographic texture analysis (RTA), 456 clinical FFDM cases were included: a "high-risk" BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers dataset (53 cases), a "high-risk" unilateral cancer patients dataset (75 cases), and a "low-risk dataset" (328 cases). Deep learning was compared to the use of features from RTA, as well as to a combination of both in the task of distinguishing between high- and low-risk subjects. Similar classification performances were obtained using CNN [area under the curve [Formula: see text]; standard error [Formula: see text

Potential Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters on Sloping Fields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GAO, X.

2017-12-01

China's sloping fields have the problems of low production and serious soil erosion, and mountain torrent disasters will bring more serious soil and water loss to traditional extensive exploitation of sloping field resources. In this paper, China's sloping fields were classified into three grades, such as slightly steep, steep and very steep grade. According to the geological hazards prevention and control regulation, the historical data of China's mountain torrent disasters were spatially interpolated and divided into five classes, such as extremely low, low, middle, high and extremely high level. And the risk level map of mountain torrents was finished in ArcGIS. By using overlaying analysis on sloping fields and risk level map, the potential risk regionalization map of sloping fields in various slope grades was obtained finally. The results shows that the very steep and steep sloping fields are mainly distributed in the first or second stage terraces in China. With the increase of hazard risk level, the area of sloping fields decreases rapidly and the sloping fields in extremely low and low risk levels of mountain torrents reach 98.9%. With the increase of slope grade, the area of sloping fields in various risk levels also declines sharply. The sloping fields take up approximately 60 65% and 26 30% in slightly steep and steep grade areas separately at different risk level. The risk regionalization map can provide effective information for returning farmland to forests or grassland and reducing water and soil erosion of sloping fields in the future.

Nanotoxicology and nanomedicine: making development decisions in an evolving governance environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rycroft, Taylor; Trump, Benjamin; Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey; Linkov, Igor

2018-02-01

The fields of nanomedicine, risk analysis, and decision science have evolved considerably in the past decade, providing developers of nano-enabled therapies and diagnostic tools with more complete information than ever before and shifting a fundamental requisite of the nanomedical community from the need for more information about nanomaterials to the need for a streamlined method of integrating the abundance of nano-specific information into higher-certainty product design decisions. The crucial question facing nanomedicine developers that must select the optimal nanotechnology in a given situation has shifted from "how do we estimate nanomaterial risk in the absence of good risk data?" to "how can we derive a holistic characterization of the risks and benefits that a given nanomaterial may pose within a specific nanomedical application?" Many decision support frameworks have been proposed to assist with this inquiry; however, those based in multicriteria decision analysis have proven to be most adaptive in the rapidly evolving field of nanomedicine—from the early stages of the field when conditions of significant uncertainty and incomplete information dominated, to today when nanotoxicology and nano-environmental health and safety information is abundant but foundational paradigms such as chemical risk assessment, risk governance, life cycle assessment, safety-by-design, and stakeholder engagement are undergoing substantial reformation in an effort to address the needs of emerging technologies. In this paper, we reflect upon 10 years of developments in nanomedical engineering and demonstrate how the rich knowledgebase of nano-focused toxicological and risk assessment information developed over the last decade enhances the capability of multicriteria decision analysis approaches and underscores the need to continue the transition from traditional risk assessment towards risk-based decision-making and alternatives-based governance for emerging technologies.

Developing Statistical Models to Assess Transplant Outcomes Using National Registries: The Process in the United States.

PubMed

Snyder, Jon J; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kim, S Joseph; Zaun, David; Xiong, Hui; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bertram L

2016-02-01

Created by the US National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) is obligated to publicly report data on transplant program and organ procurement organization performance in the United States. These reports include risk-adjusted assessments of graft and patient survival, and programs performing worse or better than expected are identified. The SRTR currently maintains 43 risk adjustment models for assessing posttransplant patient and graft survival and, in collaboration with the SRTR Technical Advisory Committee, has developed and implemented a new systematic process for model evaluation and revision. Patient cohorts for the risk adjustment models are identified, and single-organ and multiorgan transplants are defined, then each risk adjustment model is developed following a prespecified set of steps. Model performance is assessed, the model is refit to a more recent cohort before each evaluation cycle, and then it is applied to the evaluation cohort. The field of solid organ transplantation is unique in the breadth of the standardized data that are collected. These data allow for quality assessment across all transplant providers in the United States. A standardized process of risk model development using data from national registries may enhance the field.

Spatial exposure-hazard and landscape models for assessing the impact of GM crops on non-target organisms.

PubMed

Leclerc, Melen; Walker, Emily; Messéan, Antoine; Soubeyrand, Samuel

2018-05-15

The cultivation of Genetically Modified (GM) crops may have substantial impacts on populations of non-target organisms (NTOs) in agroecosystems. These impacts should be assessed at larger spatial scales than the cultivated field, and, as landscape-scale experiments are difficult, if not impossible, modelling approaches are needed to address landscape risk management. We present an original stochastic and spatially explicit modelling framework for assessing the risk at the landscape level. We use techniques from spatial statistics for simulating simplified landscapes made up of (aggregated or non-aggregated) GM fields, neutral fields and NTO's habitat areas. The dispersal of toxic pollen grains is obtained by convolving the emission of GM plants and validated dispersal kernel functions while the locations of exposed individuals are drawn from a point process. By taking into account the adherence of the ambient pollen on plants, the loss of pollen due to climatic events, and, an experimentally-validated mortality-dose function we predict risk maps and provide a distribution giving how the risk varies within exposed individuals in the landscape. Then, we consider the impact of the Bt maize on Inachis io in worst-case scenarii where exposed individuals are located in the vicinity of GM fields and pollen shedding overlaps with larval emergence. We perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore numerically how our input parameters influence the risk. Our results confirm the important effects of pollen emission and loss. Most interestingly they highlight that the optimal spatial distribution of GM fields that mitigates the risk depends on our knowledge of the habitats of NTOs, and finally, moderate the influence of the dispersal kernel function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

2017-10-01

Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

The assessment of field trials in GMO research around the world and their possible integration in field trials for variety registration.

PubMed

Slot, M M; van de Wiel, C C M; Kleter, G A; Visser, R G F; Kok, E J

2018-05-04

Most regulations worldwide stipulate that a new genetically modified (GM) crop event has to be compared to its closest non-GM counterpart as a corner stone of the pre-market risk assessment. To this end the GM crop and its comparator should be grown in field trials for a phenotypic comparison as well as for subsequent detailed analysis of the composition of the two crop varieties. A more in-depth globally harmonised approach for the conduct of these field trials is lacking. Only a few countries have formulated detailed protocols for the set-up of GM field trials. In some countries, commercial non-GM reference varieties need to be included in a field study to compile reliable data that indicate the range of natural variation for the compounds tested at the specific location. Detailed analysis of pre-market assessment reports have so far not shown the added value of including these reference varieties in the field trials. In all cases where specific values were found to be outside of the range of the reference varieties, it proved possible to draw conclusions on the part of the pre-market risk assessment that relates to the compositional analysis, on the basis of already available compositional data. With the increasing quality of several databases on compositional data of a growing number of crop species, it seems unlikely that reference varieties will become more important on future occasions. It was furthermore investigated whether this part of the risk assessment can be related to field trial requirements for variety registration with the explicit intention of reducing the data burden on producers of new GM plant varieties. Field trials for variety registration so far include an assessment of phenotypic characteristics that do not cover safety aspects, with the exception of establishment of the glycoalkaloid content in potatoes in the Netherlands and Sweden. It may, however, under certain conditions be relatively easy to exchange data from compositional measurements between variety registration and GM testing procedures, thus laying a foundation for testing the feasibility of combining both pre-market assessment procedures in a single pre-market evaluation path.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

2013-01-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Risk Assessment for Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics in two Sites of Mexico City During 2003 Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, A. R.; Grutter, M. M.; Volkamer, R. M.

2007-05-01

An environmental risk assessment for criteria pollutants and air toxics in Mexico City is presented. The data used in the study were collected by FTIR and DOAS systems during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area field campaign on April 2003 (MCMA2003). The systems were deployed in two different sites: One in downtown (Merced) and the other in the south east (CENICA). Concentrations of criteria pollutants and air toxics were obtained every 5 min and were used to obtain hourly average concentrations and the month average for April. The concentration values were used to estimate the risks of acute and chronic exposure to ambient concentrations using risk measures like hazard index, life cancer probability, life lost expectancy and maximum individual cancer risk. Results revealed that both sites have similar risk values. For acute exposure, criteria pollutants have larger risks than air toxics, but air toxics have larger risks for chronic exposure. Ambient concentrations of benzene showed the largest carcinogenic risk of the measured air toxics.

Hypothesis: the risk of childhood leukemia is related to combinations of power-frequency and static magnetic fields.

PubMed

Bowman, J D; Thomas, D C; London, S J; Peters, J M

1995-01-01

We present a hypothesis that the risk of childhood leukemia is related to exposure to specific combinations of static and extremely-low-frequency (ELF) magnetic fields. Laboratory data from calcium efflux and diatom mobility experiments were used with the gyromagnetic equation to predict combinations of 60 Hz and static magnetic fields hypothesized to enhance leukemia risk. The laboratory data predicted 19 bands of the static field magnitude with a bandwidth of 9.1 microT that, together with 60 Hz magnetic fields, are expected to have biological activity. We then assessed the association between this exposure metric and childhood leukemia using data from a case-control study in Los Angeles County. ELF and static magnetic fields were measured in the bedrooms of 124 cases determined from a tumor registry and 99 controls drawn from friends and random digit dialing. Among these subjects, 26 cases and 20 controls were exposed to static magnetic fields lying in the predicted bands of biological activity centered at 38.0 microT and 50.6 microT. Although no association was found for childhood leukemia in relation to measured ELF or static magnetic fields alone, an increasing trend of leukemia risk with measured ELF fields was found for subjects within these static field bands (P for trend = 0.041). The odds ratio (OR) was 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4-30.5] for subjects exposed to static fields within the derived bands and to ELF magnetic field above 0.30 microT (compared to subjects exposed to static fields outside the bands and ELF magnetic fields below 0.07 microT). When the 60 Hz magnetic fields were assessed according to the Wertheimer-Leeper code for wiring configurations, leukemia risks were again greater with the hypothesized exposure conditions (OR = 9.2 for very high current configurations within the static field bands; 95% CI = 1.3-64.6). Although the risk estimates are based on limited magnetic field measurements for a small number of subjects, these findings suggest that the risk of childhood leukemia may be related to the combined effects of the static and ELF magnetic fields. Further tests of the hypothesis are proposed.

RiskScape Volcano: Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; King, Andrew; Jolly, Gill; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Tom; Lindsay, Jan

2013-04-01

RiskScape is a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand that models the risk and impact of various natural hazards on a given built environment. RiskScape has a modular structure: the hazard module models hazard exposure (e.g., ash thickness at a given location), the asset module catalogues assets (built environment, infrastructure, and people) and their attributes exposed to the hazard, and the vulnerability module models the consequences of asset exposure to the hazard. Hazards presently included in RiskScape are earthquakes, river floods, tsunamis, windstorms, and ash from volcanic eruptions (specifically from Ruapehu). Here we present our framework for incorporating other volcanic hazards (e.g., pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, ground deformation) into RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability. We also will discuss the challenges of evaluating risk for 'point source' (e.g., stratovolcanoes) vs 'diffuse' (e.g., volcanic fields) volcanism using Ruapehu and the Auckland volcanic field as examples. Once operational, RiskScape Volcano will be a valuable resource both in New Zealand and internationally as a practical tool for evaluating risk and also as an example for how to predict the consequences of volcanic eruptions on both rural and urban environments.

Reference dose (RfD): description and use in health risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, D.G.; Dourson, M.

1988-12-01

For many years the concept of the acceptable daily intake has served the toxicological and regulatory fields quite well. However, as approaches to assessing the health significance of exposures to noncarcinogenic substances receive greater scrutiny, some difficulties with this traditional approach have become more apparent. Consequently, the concept of the reference dose is introduced in order to avoid use of prejudicial terms (e.g., safety and acceptable), to promote greater consistency in the assessment of noncarcinogenic chemicals, and to maintain the functional separation between risk assessment and risk management.

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSES USING EPA'S ON-LINE SITE-SPECIFIC TRANSPORT MODELS AND FIELD DATA

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has developed a suite of on-line calculators and transport models to aid in risk assessment for subsurface contamination. The calculators (www.epa.gov/athens/onsite) provide several levels of tools and data. These include tools for generating commonly-used model input param...

SCREENING AND TESTING FOR ENDOCRINE DISRUPTION IN FISH - BIOMARKERS AS "SIGNPOSTS," NOT "TRAFFIC LIGHTS," IN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Biomarkers provide important tools for addressing the impacts of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in fish. Presently, biomarkers are best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "red traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of EDCs. In field studies, bio...

DATA COLLECTED IN THE EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY'S FIELD MEASUREMENT STUDIES TO EVALUATE AGGREGATE EXPOSURE

EPA Science Inventory

The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 requires children's risk assessments to be conducted using high quality and high quantity data. Currently, data on children's exposures and exposure factors are limited and insufficient to address risk assessments that do not rely heavil...

January 1998 Volume II 1996 Field Investigation Report Ecological Risk Assessment of the Marsh Area of the LCP Chemical Site in Brunswick, Georgia

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Volume II contains the data tables and quality assurance review summaries cited in Volume I of the Ecological Risk Assessment for the Marsh (Estuarine) Operable Unit of the LCP Chemicals Site in Brunswick, Georgia.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

PubMed

Tracewski, Łukasz; Butchart, Stuart H M; Di Marco, Moreno; Ficetola, Gentile F; Rondinini, Carlo; Symes, Andy; Wheatley, Hannah; Beresford, Alison E; Buchanan, Graeme M

2016-10-01

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Agapito-Tenfen, Sarah Zanon; Carman, Judy A

2013-05-01

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Biological Safety Profession's Evaluation and Control of Risks Associated with the Field Collection of Potentially Infectious Specimens.

PubMed

Patlovich, Scott J; Emery, Robert J; Whitehead, Lawrence W; Brown, Eric L; Flores, Rene

2015-03-01

Because the origins of the biological safety profession are rooted in the control and prevention of laboratory-associated infections, the vocation focuses primarily on the safe handling of specimens within the laboratory. But in many cases, the specimens and samples handled in the lab are originally collected in the field where a broader set of possible exposure considerations may be present, each with varying degrees of controllability. The failure to adequately control the risks associated with collecting biological specimens in the field may result in illness or injury, and could have a direct impact on laboratory safety, if infectious specimens were packaged or transported inappropriately, for example. This study developed a web-based survey distributed to practicing biological safety professionals to determine the prevalence of and extent to which biological safety programs consider and evaluate field collection activities. In cases where such issues were considered, the data collected characterize the types of controls and methods of oversight at the institutional level that are employed. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the survey respondents indicated that research involving the field collection of biological specimens is conducted at their institutions. A majority (79%) of these field collection activities occur at academic institutions. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of respondents indicated that their safety committees do not consider issues related to biological specimens collected in the field, and only 25% with an oversight committee charged to review field collection protocols have generated a field research-specific risk assessment form to facilitate the assembly of pertinent information for a project risk assessment review. The results also indicated that most biosafety professionals (73% overall; 71% from institutions conducting field collection activities) have not been formally trained on the topic, but many (64% overall; 87% from institutions conducting field collection activities) indicated that training on field research safety issues would be helpful, and even more (71% overall; 93% from institutions conducting field collection activities) would consider participation in such a training course. Results obtained from this study can be used to develop a field research safety toolkit and associated training curricula specifically targeted to biological safety professionals.

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

PubMed

Lebret, Erik

2015-12-23

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms.

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

PubMed Central

Lebret, Erik

2015-01-01

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms. PMID:26703709

Riding the Juggernaut in the Risk Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Child & Youth Services, 2007

2007-01-01

There are irreconcilable and contested positions taken around the definition and understanding of risk. The purpose of this chapter is to locate risk discourse more solidly in a social scientific framework by providing an historical analysis of literature dealing with risk drawing from the fields of risk assessment and, later, the social sciences…

Reliability of Risk Assessment Measures Used in Sexually Violent Predator Proceedings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Cailey S.; Kimonis, Eva R.; Otto, Randy K.; Kline, Suzonne M.; Wasserman, Adam L.

2012-01-01

The field interrater reliability of three assessment tools frequently used by mental health professionals when evaluating sex offenders' risk for reoffending--the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) and the Static-99--was examined within the context of sexually violent predator…

Toward an Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trepanier, Nathalie Sonia

2005-01-01

This paper suggests a new framework for conducting research in the field of special education. This framework is inspired by the ecological risk assessment frameworks of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1995) and G.W. Suter (1993), which are primarily used in ecotoxicology and environmental toxicology. The methodology used to develop the…

Toward an Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trepanier, Nathalie S.

2005-01-01

We suggest a new framework for conducting research in the field of special education. This framework is inspired by the ecological risk assessment frameworks of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1995) and G.W. Suter (1993), which are primarily used in ecotoxicology and environmental toxicology. The framework includes three phases by which…

Pre-flight risk assessment in emergency medical service (EMS) helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shively, Robert J.

1990-01-01

A preflight risk assessment system (SAFE) was developed at NASA-Ames Research Center for civil EMS operations to assist pilots in making a decision objectively to accept or decline a mission. The ability of the SAFE system to predict risk profiles was examined at an EMS operator. Results of this field study showed that the usefulness of SAFE was largely dependent on the type of mission flown.

78 FR 44926 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment, Preliminary...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-25

... analysis of data submitted by Monsanto, a review of other scientific data, field tests conducted under... EA. Based on APHIS' analysis of field and laboratory data submitted by Monsanto, references provided...-2012-0027, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS, Station 3A-03.8, 4700 River Road Unit 118...

Field Validity of the Psychopathy Checklist--Revised in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murrie, Daniel C.; Boccaccini, Marcus T.; Caperton, Jennifer; Rufino, Katrina

2012-01-01

Several studies have concluded that scores from Hare's (2003) Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R) predict reoffense among sexual offenders, but most of those studies examined the predictive validity of scores from trained research staff, not clinicians in the field scoring the measure as part of actual forensic assessments. Therefore, we…

Accounting for differing exposure patterns between laboratory tests and the field in the assessment of long-term risks of pesticides to terrestrial vertebrates.

PubMed

Fischer, David L

2005-11-01

Long-term risks of pesticides to birds and mammals are currently assessed by comparing effects thresholds determined in chronic laboratory studies to exposure levels expected to occur in the field. However, there is often a mismatch between exposure patterns tested in the laboratory tests (exposure levels held constant) and those experienced by animals in the field (exposure levels varying over time). Three methods for addressing this problem are presented and discussed. Time-weighted averaging (TWA) converts a variable field exposure regime to a single value that can be compared directly to the laboratory test results. Body-burden modeling (BBM) is applied to both laboratory and field exposure regimes allowing a straightforward comparison of body residue levels expected for each situation. Temporal analysis (TA) uses expert judgment to decide if the length of time exposure exceeds a toxicity threshold is long enough to cause biologically significant effects. To reduce uncertainty in long-term assessments, the conduct of specialized laboratory tests in which test subjects are administered a time-varying exposure that mimics what occurs in the field should be considered. Such tests may also be useful testing the validity of each of these assessment methods.

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu; Fink-Gremmels, J.

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chainmore » (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.« less

New Risk Curves for NHTSA's Brain Injury Criterion (BrIC): Derivations and Assessments.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; Pline, Kevin; Li, Guosong; Frankstein, Michael; Weerappuli, Para

2016-11-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently published a Request for Comments regarding a potential upgrade to the US New Car Assessment Program (US NCAP) - a star-rating program pertaining to vehicle crashworthiness. Therein, NHTSA (a) cited two metrics for assessing head risk: Head Injury Criterion (HIC15) and Brain Injury Criterion (BrIC), and (b) proposed to conduct risk assessment via its risk curves for those metrics, but did not prescribe a specific method for applying them. Recent studies, however, have indicated that the NHTSA risk curves for BrIC significantly overstate field-based head injury rates. Therefore, in the present three-part study, a new set of BrIC-based risk curves was derived, an overarching head risk equation involving risk curves for both BrIC and HIC15 was assessed, and some additional candidatepredictor- variable assessments were conducted. Part 1 pertained to the derivation. Specifically, data were pooled from various sources: Navy volunteers, amateur boxers, professional football players, simple-fall subjects, and racecar drivers. In total, there were 4,501 cases, with brain injury reported in 63. Injury outcomes were approximated on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). The statistical analysis was conducted subject to ordinal logistic regression analysis (OLR), such that the various levels of brain injury were cast as a function of BrIC. The resulting risk curves, with Goodman Kruksal Gamma=0.83, were significantly different than those from NHTSA. Part 2 pertained to the assessment relative to field data. Two perspectives were considered: "aggregate" (ΔV=0-56 km/h) and "point" (high-speed, regulatory focus). For the aggregate perspective, the new risk curves for BrIC were applied in field models pertaining to belted, mid-size, adult drivers in 11-1 o'clock, full-engagement frontal crashes in the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS, 1993-2014 calendar years). For the point perspective, BrIC data from tests were used. The assessments were conducted for minor, moderate, and serious injury levels for both Newer Vehicles (airbag-fitted) and Older Vehicles (not airbag-fitted). Curve-based injury rates and NASS-based injury rates were compared via average percent difference (AvgPctDiff). The new risk curves demonstrated significantly better fidelity than those from NHTSA. For example, for the aggregate perspective (n=12 assessments), the results were as follows: AvgPctDiff (present risk curves) = +67 versus AvgPctDiff (NHTSA risk curves) = +9378. Part 2 also contained a more comprehensive assessment. Specifically, BrIC-based risk curves were used to estimate brain-related injury probabilities, HIC15-based risk curves from NHTSA were used to estimate bone/other injury probabilities, and the maximum of the two resulting probabilities was used to represent the attendant headinjury probabilities. (Those HIC15-based risk curves yielded AvgPctDiff=+85 for that application.) Subject to the resulting 21 assessments, similar results were observed: AvgPctDiff (present risk curves) = +42 versus AvgPctDiff (NHTSA risk curves) = +5783. Therefore, based on the results from Part 2, if the existing BrIC metric is to be applied by NHTSA in vehicle assessment, we recommend that the corresponding risk curves derived in the present study be considered. Part 3 pertained to the assessment of various other candidate brain-injury metrics. Specifically, Parts 1 and 2 were revisited for HIC15, translation acceleration (TA), rotational acceleration (RA), rotational velocity (RV), and a different rotational brain injury criterion from NHTSA (BRIC). The rank-ordered results for the 21 assessments for each metric were as follows: RA, HIC15, BRIC, TA, BrIC, and RV. Therefore, of the six studied sets of OLR-based risk curves, the set for rotational acceleration demonstrated the best performance relative to NASS.

Neurobehavioral epidemiology: application in risk assessment.

PubMed Central

Grandjean, P; White, R F; Weihe, P

1996-01-01

Neurobehavioral epidemiology may contribute information to risk assessment in relation to a) characterization of neurotoxicity and its time course; b) the dose-effect relationship; c) the dose-response relationship; and d) predisposing factors. The quality of this information relies on the validity of the exposure data, the validity and sensitivity of neurobehavioral function tests, and the degree to which sources of bias are controlled. With epidemiologic studies of methylmercury-associated neurotoxicity as an example, the field of research involves numerous uncertainties that should be taken into account in the risk assessment process. PMID:9182047

The effect of pramipexole therapy on balance disorder and fall risk in Parkinson's disease at early stage: clinical and posturographic assessment.

PubMed

Güler, Sibel; Bir, Levent Sinan; Akdag, Beyza; Ardıc, Fusun

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine balance problems and severity and ratio of postural instability of newly diagnosed, early stage Parkinson's patients who did not receive any antiparkinson treatment before, to evaluate fall risk clinically and posturographically and to examine the effects of pramipexole on these signs and symptoms. Detailed posturographic assessments which involved central vestibular, visual, peripheric vestibular somatosensory field tests were applied to both patient and control subjects and fall risk was determined. There was not statistically significant difference between patients and control subjects before and after drug therapy in the assesment of fall risk in posturography and there was not any improvement with drug usage in the patient group. However, in the analysis of subsystems separately, only the involvement in central vestibular field was more severe and could appear at all positions in Parkinson's patients comparing with the control group, and pramipexole was partially effective in improving this disorder. Central vestibular field is the subsystem that should be examined with first priority. Posturography is relatively reliable in defining fall risk and postural instability ratio in Parkinson's disease. But it should be considered that clinical assessment tools can be more sensitive in the evaluation of balance and postural disorders and in the follow-up of the response to drug therapy.

Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report of Approaches for the Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models and Supporting Data in Risk Assessment addresses the application and evaluation of PBPK models for risk assessment purposes. These models represent an important class of dosimetry models that are useful for predicting internal dose at target organs for risk assessment applications. Topics covered include:the types of data required use of PBPK models in risk assessment,evaluation of PBPK models for use in risk assessment, andthe application of these models to address uncertainties resulting from extrapolations (e.g. interspecies extrapolation) often used in risk assessment.In addition, appendices are provided that includea compilation of chemical partition coefficients and rate constants,algorithms for estimating chemical-specific parameters, anda list of publications relating to PBPK modeling. This report is primarily meant to serve as a learning tool for EPA scientists and risk assessors who may be less familiar with the field. In addition, this report can be informative to PBPK modelers within and outside the Agency, as it provides an assessment of the types of data and models that the EPA requires for consideration of a model for use in risk assessment.

Environmental risk assessment of pesticides: state of the art and prospective improvement from science.

PubMed

Boivin, Arnaud; Poulsen, Véronique

2017-03-01

Pesticide risk assessment in the European regulatory framework is mandatory performed for active substances (pesticides) and the plant protection products they are constituents of. The aim is to guarantee that safe use can be achieved for the intended use of the product. This paper provides a feedback on the regulatory environmental risk assessment performed for pesticide registration at the EU and member state levels. The different steps of pesticide registration are addressed considering both exposure and hazard. In this paper, we focus on the environmental fate and behaviour in surface water together with the aquatic ecotoxicity of the substances to illustrate pesticide regulatory risk assessment performed for aquatic organisms. Current methodologies are presented along with highlights on potential improvements. For instance, as regards exposure aspects, moving from field based to landscape risk assessments is promising. Regarding ecotoxicology, ecological models may be valuable tools when applied to chemical risk assessment. In addition, interest and further developments to better take into account mitigation measures in risk assessment and management are also presented.

Reading between the Lines: Implicit Assessment of the Association of Parental Attributions and Empathy with Abuse Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Christina M.; Cook, Anne E.; Jedrziewski, Chezlie T.

2012-01-01

Objective: Researchers in the child maltreatment field have traditionally relied on explicit self-reports to study factors that may exacerbate physical child abuse risk. The current investigation evaluated an implicit analog task utilizing eye tracking technology to assess both parental attributions of child misbehavior and empathy. Method: Based…

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

Risk assessment and the prevention of radicalization from nonviolence into terrorism.

PubMed

Sarma, Kiran M

2017-04-01

This article considers the challenges associated with completing risk assessments in countering violent extremism. In particular, it is concerned with risk assessment of those who come to the attention of government and nongovernment organizations as being potentially on a trajectory toward terrorism and where there is an obligation to consider the potential future risk that they may pose. Risk assessment in this context is fraught with difficulty, primarily due to the variable nature of terrorism, the low base-rate problem, and the dearth of strong evidence on relevant risk and resilience factors. Statistically, this will lead to poor predictive value. Ethically, it can lead to the labeling of an individual who is not on a trajectory toward violence as being "at risk" of engaging in terrorism and the imposing of unnecessary risk management actions. The article argues that actuarial approaches to risk assessment in this context cannot work. However, it further argues that approaches that help assessors to process and synthesize information in a structured way are of value and are in line with good practice in the broader field of violence risk assessment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Lifecourse Models for Ensuring Children's Health Protection

EPA Science Inventory

New knowledge about environmental risks to human reproduction and development directly relevant to children’s health protection derives from the fields of developmental and reproductive toxicology, exposure science, epidemiology, risk assessment, and public health. Together, thi...

Progress in violence risk assessment and communication: hypothesis versus evidence.

PubMed

Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

2015-02-01

We draw a distinction between hypothesis and evidence with respect to the assessment and communication of the risk of violent recidivism. We suggest that some authorities in the field have proposed quite valid and reasonable hypotheses with respect to several issues. Among these are the following: that accuracy will be improved by the adjustment or moderation of numerical scores based on clinical opinions about rare risk factors or other considerations pertaining to the applicability to the case at hand; that there is something fundamentally distinct about protective factors so that they are not merely the obverse of risk factors, such that optimal accuracy cannot be achieved without consideration of such protective factors; and that assessment of dynamic factors is required for optimal accuracy and furthermore interventions aimed at such dynamic factors can be expected to cause reductions in violence risk. We suggest here that, while these are generally reasonable hypotheses, they have been inappropriately presented to practitioners as empirically supported facts, and that practitioners' assessment and communication about violence risk run beyond that supported by the available evidence as a result. We further suggest that this represents harm, especially in impeding scientific progress. Nothing here justifies stasis or simply surrendering to authoritarian custody with somatic treatment. Theoretically motivated and clearly articulated assessment and intervention should be provided for offenders, but in a manner that moves the field more firmly from hypotheses to evidence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Field level risk assessment for root-knot nematodes in lima beans

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Southern Root-Knot Nematode (RKN), Meloidogyne incognita, is a major yield limiting pest in lima beans (Phaseolus lunatus). RKN are not evenly distributed through fields and population dynamics are fluid making whole field management challenging. The objectives of this research were to characterize ...

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Environmental toxicology and risk assessment: Standardization of biomarkers for endocrine disruption and environmental assessment: Eighth volume. Special technical publication 1364

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henshel, D.S.; Black, M.C.; Harrass, M.C.

1999-07-01

This conference was held April 20--22, 1998 in Atlanta, Georgia. The purpose of this conference was to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on biological markers in toxicology and risk assessment, including endocrine disrupter screening assays. Attention is focused on the following: aquatic toxicology; behavioral toxicology; biochemical indicators; developmental indicators; endocrine indicators; biodegradation and fate of chemicals; quality assurance and quality control within laboratory and field studies; risk assessment and communication, and harmonization of standards development. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Assessment of the Appalachian Basin Geothermal Field: Combining Risk Factors to Inform Development of Low Temperature Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, J. D.; Whealton, C.; Camp, E. R.; Horowitz, F.; Frone, Z. S.; Jordan, T. E.; Stedinger, J. R.

2015-12-01

Exploration methods for deep geothermal energy projects must primarily consider whether or not a location has favorable thermal resources. Even where the thermal field is favorable, other factors may impede project development and success. A combined analysis of these factors and their uncertainty is a strategy for moving geothermal energy proposals forward from the exploration phase at the scale of a basin to the scale of a project, and further to design of geothermal systems. For a Department of Energy Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis we assessed quality metrics, which we call risk factors, in the Appalachian Basin of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. These included 1) thermal field variability, 2) productivity of natural reservoirs from which to extract heat, 3) potential for induced seismicity, and 4) presence of thermal utilization centers. The thermal field was determined using a 1D heat flow model for 13,400 bottomhole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells. Steps included the development of i) a set of corrections to BHT data and ii) depth models of conductivity stratigraphy at each borehole based on generalized stratigraphy that was verified for a select set of wells. Wells are control points in a spatial statistical analysis that resulted in maps of the predicted mean thermal field properties and of the standard error of the predicted mean. Seismic risk was analyzed by comparing earthquakes and stress orientations in the basin to gravity and magnetic potential field edges at depth. Major edges in the potential fields served as interpolation boundaries for the thermal maps (Figure 1). Natural reservoirs were identified from published studies, and productivity was determined based on the expected permeability and dimensions of each reservoir. Visualizing the natural reservoirs and population centers on a map of the thermal field communicates options for viable pilot sites and project designs (Figure 1). Furthermore, combining the four risk factors at favorable sites enables an evaluation of project feasibility across sites based on tradeoffs in the risk factors. Uncertainties in each risk factor can also be considered to determine if the tradeoffs in risk factors between sites are meaningful.

Neurobiological correlates in forensic assessment: a systematic review.

PubMed

van der Gronde, Toon; Kempes, Maaike; van El, Carla; Rinne, Thomas; Pieters, Toine

2014-01-01

With the increased knowledge of biological risk factors, interest in including this information in forensic assessments is growing. Currently, forensic assessments are predominantly focused on psychosocial factors. A better understanding of the neurobiology of violent criminal behaviour and biological risk factors could improve forensic assessments. To provide an overview of the current evidence about biological risk factors that predispose people to antisocial and violent behaviour, and determine its usefulness in forensic assessment. A systematic literature search was conducted using articles from PsycINFO, Embase and Pubmed published between 2000 and 2013. This review shows that much research on the relationship between genetic predisposition and neurobiological alterations with aggression is performed on psychiatric patients or normal populations. However, the number of studies comparing offenders is limited. There is still a great need to understand how genetic and neurobiological alterations and/or deficits are related to violent behaviour, specifically criminality. Most studies focus on only one of the genetic or neurobiological fields related to antisocial and/or violent behaviour. To reliably correlate the findings of these fields, a standardization of methodology is urgently needed. Findings from the current review suggest that violent aggression, like all forms of human behaviour, both develops under specific genetic and environmental conditions, and requires interplay between these conditions. Violence should be considered as the end product of a chain of life events, during which risks accumulate and potentially reinforce each other, displaying or triggering a specific situation. This systematic review did not find evidence of predispositions or neurobiological alterations that solely explain antisocial or violent behaviour. With better designed studies, more correlation between diverse fields, and more standardisation, it might be possible to elucidate underlying mechanisms. Thus, we advocate maintaining the current case-by-case differentiated approach to evidence-based forensic assessment.

Neurobiological Correlates in Forensic Assessment: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

van der Gronde, Toon; Kempes, Maaike; van El, Carla; Rinne, Thomas; Pieters, Toine

2014-01-01

Background With the increased knowledge of biological risk factors, interest in including this information in forensic assessments is growing. Currently, forensic assessments are predominantly focused on psychosocial factors. A better understanding of the neurobiology of violent criminal behaviour and biological risk factors could improve forensic assessments. Objective To provide an overview of the current evidence about biological risk factors that predispose people to antisocial and violent behaviour, and determine its usefulness in forensic assessment. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted using articles from PsycINFO, Embase and Pubmed published between 2000 and 2013. Results This review shows that much research on the relationship between genetic predisposition and neurobiological alterations with aggression is performed on psychiatric patients or normal populations. However, the number of studies comparing offenders is limited. There is still a great need to understand how genetic and neurobiological alterations and/or deficits are related to violent behaviour, specifically criminality. Most studies focus on only one of the genetic or neurobiological fields related to antisocial and/or violent behaviour. To reliably correlate the findings of these fields, a standardization of methodology is urgently needed. Conclusion Findings from the current review suggest that violent aggression, like all forms of human behaviour, both develops under specific genetic and environmental conditions, and requires interplay between these conditions. Violence should be considered as the end product of a chain of life events, during which risks accumulate and potentially reinforce each other, displaying or triggering a specific situation. This systematic review did not find evidence of predispositions or neurobiological alterations that solely explain antisocial or violent behaviour. With better designed studies, more correlation between diverse fields, and more standardisation, it might be possible to elucidate underlying mechanisms. Thus, we advocate maintaining the current case-by-case differentiated approach to evidence-based forensic assessment. PMID:25330208

Evaluation of the APEX model to simulate runoff quality from agricultural fields in the southern region of the US

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The phosphorus (P) Index (PI) is the risk assessment tool approved in the NRCS 590 standard used to target critical source areas and practices to reduce P losses. A revision of the 590 standard, suggested using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to assess the risk of nitroge...

Dream project: Applications of earth observations to disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyke, G.; Gill, S.; Davies, R.; Betorz, F.; Andalsvik, Y.; Cackler, J.; Dos Santos, W.; Dunlop, K.; Ferreira, I.; Kebe, F.; Lamboglia, E.; Matsubara, Y.; Nikolaidis, V.; Ostoja-Starzewski, S.; Sakita, M.; Verstappen, N.

2011-01-01

The field of disaster risk management is relatively new and takes a structured approach to managing uncertainty related to the threat of natural and man-made disasters. Disaster risk management consists primarily of risk assessment and the development of strategies to mitigate disaster risk. This paper will discuss how increasing both Earth observation data and information technology capabilities can contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in Belize. The paper presents the results and recommendations of a project conducted by an international and interdisciplinary team of experts at the 2009 session of the International Space University in NASA Ames Research Center (California, USA). The aim is to explore the combination of current, planned and potential space-aided, airborne, and ground-based Earth observation tools, the emergence of powerful new web-based and mobile data management tools, and how this combination can support and improve the emerging field of disaster risk management. The starting point of the project was the World Bank's Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) program, focused in Central America. This program was used as a test bed to analyze current space technologies used in risk management and develop new strategies and tools to be applied in other regions around the world.

How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

2016-01-01

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also linked to the exposure scenarios, and 2) quantitative protection goals be set to facilitate the interpretation of model results for risk assessment. © 2015 SETAC.

A comparative study on the risk of second primary cancers in out-of-field organs associated with radiotherapy of localized prostate carcinoma using Monte Carlo-based accelerator and patient models

PubMed Central

Bednarz, Bryan; Athar, Basit; Xu, X. George

2010-01-01

Purpose: A physician’s decision regarding an ideal treatment approach (i.e., radiation, surgery, and∕or hormonal) for prostate carcinoma is traditionally based on a variety of metrics. One of these metrics is the risk of radiation-induced second primary cancer following radiation treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the significance of second cancer risks in out-of-field organs from 3D-CRT and IMRT treatments of prostate carcinoma compared to baseline cancer risks in these organs. Methods: Monte Carlo simulations were performed using a detailed medical linear accelerator model and an anatomically realistic adult male whole-body phantom. A four-field box treatment, a four-field box treatment plus a six-field boost, and a seven-field IMRT treatment were simulated. Using BEIR VII risk models, the age-dependent lifetime attributable risks to various organs outside the primary beam with a known predilection for cancer were calculated using organ-averaged equivalent doses. Results: The four-field box treatment had the lowest treatment-related second primary cancer risks to organs outside the primary beam ranging from 7.3×10−9 to 2.54×10−5%∕MU depending on the patients age at exposure and second primary cancer site. The risks to organs outside the primary beam from the four-field box and six-field boost and the seven-field IMRT were nearly equivalent. The risks from the four-field box and six-field boost ranged from 1.39×10−8 to 1.80×10−5%∕MU, and from the seven-field IMRT ranged from 1.60×10−9 to 1.35×10−5%∕MU. The second cancer risks in all organs considered from each plan were below the baseline risks. Conclusions: The treatment-related second cancer risks in organs outside the primary beam due to 3D-CRT and IMRT is small. New risk assessment techniques need to be investigated to address the concern of radiation-induced second cancers from prostate treatments, particularly focusing on risks to organs inside the primary beam. PMID:20527532

Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

1991-05-01

Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

Risk assessments for dating violence in mid to late adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Tapp, James; Moore, Estelle

2016-10-01

The objective of this paper is to review risk instruments that have been used in the assessment of the potential for violence within the dating relationships of young people. A review of the dating violence literature was conducted to identify risk assessment approaches that have been used to predict harmful behaviour within the dating relationships of people aged between 15 and 30 years. Risk assessments were evaluated on recommended quality criteria: predictive validity, accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) and inter-rater reliability. Only five studies describing assessments that focused specifically on dating violence risk factors were selected for review. Three assessments encompassed dating behaviours by victims that have been associated with an increased risk of further victimisation. Drawing on this evidence, we conclude that young people appear to be at greater risk of encountering dating violence if they have experienced violence in earlier attachment relationships; if their skills for coping with conflict and responding to coercion are limited and if the presence of peer influences reinforces offence supportive attitudes. The reliability and validity of existing intimate partner violence risk assessments that conceptually overlap with elements of dating violence risk warrant investigation to inform risk assessment developments in this field and, building on this, possible interventions to minimise future harm. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

[Methods for assessing the potential health risks of traces of pharmaceuticals in drinking water].

PubMed

Kozísek, Frantisek; Jeligová, Hana

2012-01-01

Increasing consumption of pharmaceuticals leads also to higher release of its non-metabolized residues into environment, mostly hydrosphere. Some of these substances may reach also processed drinking water. Although it is found in traces, it causes public concern as it can represent a non-targeted and unwanted medication. Toxicologists and public health authorities are appealed to assess potential health risks carefully and to communicate the risk adequately to public. As health risks assessment of environmental exposure to pharmaceuticals is a new field of expertise, its methodology has not been unified and standardized yet, but several different procedures have been proposed and used. The paper provides overview of these methods.

Occupational exposure to magnetic fields in relation to mortality from brain cancer among electricity generation and transmission workers.

PubMed Central

Harrington, J M; McBride, D I; Sorahan, T; Paddle, G M; van Tongeren, M

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the risks of mortality from brain cancer are related to occupational exposure to magnetic fields. METHODS: A total of 112 cases of primary brain cancer (1972-91) were identified from a cohort of 84,018 male and female employees of the (then) Central Electricity Generating Board and its privatised successor companies. Individual cumulative occupational exposures to magnetic fields were estimated by linking available computerised job history data with magnetic field measurements collected over 675 person-workshifts. Estimated exposure histories of the case workers were compared with those of 654 control workers drawn from the cohort (nested case-control study), by means of conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: For exposure assessments based on arithmetic means, the risk of mortality from brain cancer for subjects with an estimated cumulative exposure to magnetic fields of 5.4-13.4 microT.y v subjects with lower exposures (0.0-5.3 microT.y) was 1.04 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.60 to 1.80). The corresponding relative risk in subjects with higher exposures (> or = 13.5 microT.y) was 0.95 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.69). There was no indication of a positive trend for cumulative exposure and risk of mortality from brain cancer either when the analysis used exposure assessments based on geometric means or when the analysis was restricted to exposures received within five years of the case diagnosis (or corresponding period for controls). CONCLUSIONS: Although the exposure categorisation was based solely on recent observations, the study findings do not support the hypothesis that the risk of brain cancer is associated with occupational exposure to magnetic fields. PMID:9072027

Regional multi-compartment ecological risk assessment: Establishing cadmium pollution risk in the northern Bohai Rim, China.

PubMed

Shi, Yajuan; Wang, Ruoshi; Lu, Yonglong; Song, Shuai; Johnson, Andrew C; Sweetman, Andrew; Jones, Kevin

2016-09-01

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been widely applied in characterizing the risk of chemicals to organisms and ecosystems. The paucity of toxicity data on local biota living in the different compartments of an ecosystem and the absence of a suitable methodology for multi-compartment spatial risk assessment at the regional scale has held back this field. The major objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify and distinguish the spatial distribution of risk to ecosystems at a regional scale. A framework for regional multi-compartment probabilistic ecological risk assessment (RMPERA) was constructed and corroborated using a bioassay of a local species. The risks from cadmium (Cd) pollution in river water, river sediment, coastal water, coastal surface sediment and soil in northern Bohai Rim were examined. The results indicated that the local organisms in soil, river, coastal water, and coastal sediment were affected by Cd. The greatest impacts from Cd were identified in the Tianjin and Huludao areas. The overall multi-compartment risk was 31.4% in the region. The methodology provides a new approach for regional multi-compartment ecological risk assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

PubMed

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Response to Kruse-Plass et al. (2017) regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507).

PubMed

Perry, Joe N; Barberi, Paolo; Bartsch, Detlef; Birch, A N E; Gathmann, Achim; Kiss, Jozsef; Manachini, Barbara; Nuti, Marco; Rauschen, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim; Schuppener, Mechthild; Sweet, Jeremy; Tebbe, Christoph C; Veronesi, Fabio

2017-01-01

We respond to the paper of Kruse-Plass et al. (Environ Sci Eur 29:12, 2017), published in this journal, regarding the risk to non-target lepidopteran larvae exposed to pollen from one or more of three Bt maize events (MON810, Bt11 and 1507). We emphasise that what is important for environmental risk assessment is not the number of pollen grains per se, but the degree of exposure of a NT lepidopteran larva to Bt protein contained in maize pollen. The main text of this response deals with general issues which Kruse-Plass et al. have failed to understand; more detailed refutations of each of their claims are given in Additional file 1. Valid environmental risk assessment requires direct measurement of pollen on leaves at varying distances outside a source field(s); such measurements reflect the potential exposure experienced by an individual larva on a host plant. There are no new data in the Kruse-Plass et al. paper, or indeed any data directly quantifying pollen on actual host-plant leaves outside a maize field; only data gathered within or at the edge of maize crops were reported. Values quoted by Kruse-Plass et al. for deposition on host plants outside the field were estimates only. We reiterate the severe methodological criticisms made by EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016], which render this estimation procedure unreliable. Furthermore, criticisms of EFSA (EFSA J 2015(13):4127, 2015) and of EFSA [Relevance of a new scientific publication (Hofmann et al. 2016) for previous environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations on the cultivation of Bt-maize events MON810, Bt11 and 1507. EFSA Supp Publ; EN-1070, 2016] made by Kruse-Plass et al. are shown in Additional file 1 to be without foundation. We therefore consider that there is no valid evidence presented by Kruse-Plass et al. to justify their conclusions.

Considerations of "Combined Probability of Injury" in the next-generation USA frontal NCAP.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; Sullivan, Kaye; Nutt, Marvin

2010-08-01

The numerical basis for assigning star ratings in the next-generation USA New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) for frontal impacts was assessed. That basis, the Combined Probability of Injury, or CPI, is the probability of an occupant sustaining an injury to any of the specified body regions. For an NCAP test, a CPI value is computed by (a) using risk curves to convert body-region responses from a test dummy into body-region risks and (b) using a theoretical, overarching CPI equation to convert those separate body-region risks into a single CPI value. Though the general concept of applying a CPI equation to assign star ratings has existed since 1994, there will be numerous changes to the 2011 frontal NCAP: there will be two additional body regions (n = 4 vs. 2), the injury probabilities will be evaluated for lower-severity (more likely) injury levels, and some of the occupant responses will change. These changes could yield more disperse CPIs that could yield more disperse ratings. However, the reasons for this increased dispersion should be consistent with real-world findings. Related assessments were the topic of this two-part study, focused on drivers. In Part 1, the CPI equation was assessed without applying risk curves. Specifically, field injury probabilities for the four body regions were used as inputs to the CPI equation, and the resulting equation-produced CPIs were compared with the field CPIs. In Part 2, subject to analyses of test dummy responses from recent NCAP tests, the effect of risk curve choice on CPIs was assessed. Specifically, dispersion statistics were compared for CPIs based on various underlying risk curves applied to data from 2001-2005 model year vehicles (n = 183). From Part 1, the theoretical CPI equation for four body regions demonstrated acceptable fidelity when provided field injury rates (R(2)= 0.92), with the equation-based CPIs being approximately 12 percent lower than those of ideal correlation. From Part 2, the 2011 NCAP protocol (i.e., application of a four-body-region CPI equation whose inputs were from risk curves) generally increased both the CPIs and their dispersion relative to the current NCAP protocol. However, the CPIs generally increased due to an emphasis on neck injury-an emphasis not observed in real-world crashes. Subject to alternative risk curves for the neck and chest, again there was increased dispersion of the CPIs, but the unrealistic emphasis on the neck was eliminated. However, risk estimates for the knee/thigh/hip (KTH) for NCAP-type events remained understated and did not fall within the confidence bands of the field data. Accordingly, KTH risk estimation is an area for future research.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Risk attitudes and personality traits predict perceptions of benefits and risks for medicinal products: a field study of European medical assessors.

PubMed

Beyer, Andrea R; Fasolo, Barbara; de Graeff, P A; Hillege, H L

2015-01-01

Risk attitudes and personality traits are known predictors of decision making among laypersons, but very little is known of their influence among experts participating in organizational decision making. Seventy-five European medical assessors were assessed in a field study using the Domain Specific Risk Taking scale and the Big Five Inventory scale. Assessors rated the risks and benefits for a mock "clinical dossier" specific to their area of expertise, and ordinal regression models were used to assess the odds of risk attitude or personality traits in predicting either the benefit or the risk ratings. An increase in the "conscientiousness" score predicted an increase in the perception of the drug's benefit, and male assessors gave higher scores for the drug's benefit ratings than did female assessors. Extraverted assessors saw fewer risks, and assessors with a perceived neutral-averse or averse risk profile saw greater risks. Medical assessors perceive the benefits and risks of medicines via a complex interplay of the medical situation, their personality traits and even their gender. Further research in this area is needed to determine how these potential biases are managed within the regulatory setting. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The NASA Risk Management Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Benjamin

1990-01-01

This paper describes the NASA Risk Management Program established by the Headquarters Office of Safety and Mission Quality (MSQ). Current agency policy is outlined, risk management assistance to the field is described, and examples are given of independent risk assessments conducted by SMQ. The motivation for and the structure of the program is placed in the historical context of pre- and post-Challenger environments.

Pilot Study of a Computer-Based Parental Questionnaire and Visual Profile of Obesity Risk in Healthy Preschoolers.

PubMed

Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Zhang, Peng; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Nowalk, Mary Patricia

2015-01-01

This group field-tested a computer-based, parental questionnaire entitled the Childhood Obesity Risk Questionnaire 2-5 (CORQ 2-5) designed to assess obesity risk in healthy preschoolers. COR 2-5 generates a profile of seven obesity risk factors. Field studies provided good internal reliability data and evidence of discriminant validity for the CORQ 2-5. Pediatric nurse clinicians found the CORQ 2-5 profile to be clinically relevant. The CORQ 2-5 is a promising measure of obesity risk in preschoolers who attend community-based health centers for their wellchild visits and who are not yet obese. CORQ 2-5 is intended to guide provider-parental obesity risk discussions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

Clinical evaluation of a new pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary or Secondary Evaluation Tool (PURPOSE T).

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Smith, Isabelle L; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Keen, Justin; Muir, Delia; Wilson, Lyn; Stubbs, Nikki; Dealey, Carol; Brown, Sarah; Nelson, E Andrea; Nixon, Jane

2018-02-01

To test the psychometric properties and clinical usability of a new Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instrument including inter-rater and test-retest reliability, convergent validity and data completeness. Methodological and practical limitations associated with traditional Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments, prompted a programme to work to develop a new instrument, as part of the National Institute for Health Research funded, Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056). Observational field test. For this clinical evaluation 230 patients were purposefully sampled across four broad levels of pressure ulcer risk with representation from four secondary care and four community NHS Trusts in England. Blinded and simultaneous paired (ward/community nurse and expert nurse) PURPOSE-T assessments were undertaken. Follow-up retest was undertaken by the expert nurse. Field notes of PURPOSE-T use were collected. Data were collected October 2012-January 2013. The clinical evaluation demonstrated "very good" (kappa) inter-rater and test-retest agreement for PURPOSE-T assessment decision overall. The percentage agreement for "problem/no problem" was over 75% for the main risk factors. Convergent validity demonstrated moderate to high associations with other measures of similar constructs. The PURPOSE-T evaluation facilitated the initial validation and clinical usability of the instrument and demonstrated that PURPOSE-T is suitable of use in clinical practice. Further study is needed to evaluate the impact of using the instrument on care processes and outcomes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Computer modelling as a tool for the exposure assessment of operators using faulty agricultural pesticide spraying equipment.

PubMed

Bańkowski, Robert; Wiadrowska, Bozena; Beresińska, Martyna; Ludwicki, Jan K; Noworyta-Głowacka, Justyna; Godyń, Artur; Doruchowski, Grzegorz; Hołownicki, Ryszard

2013-01-01

Faulty but still operating agricultural pesticide sprayers may pose an unacceptable health risk for operators. The computerized models designed to calculate exposure and risk for pesticide sprayers used as an aid in the evaluation and further authorisation of plant protection products may be applied also to assess a health risk for operators when faulty sprayers are used. To evaluate the impact of different exposure scenarios on the health risk for the operators using faulty agricultural spraying equipment by means of computer modelling. The exposure modelling was performed for 15 pesticides (5 insecticides, 7 fungicides and 3 herbicides). The critical parameter, i.e. toxicological end-point, on which the risk assessment was based was the no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL). This enabled risk to be estimated under various exposure conditions such as pesticide concentration in the plant protection product and type of the sprayed crop as well as the number of treatments. Computer modelling was based on the UK POEM model including determination of the acceptable operator exposure level (AOEL). Thus the degree of operator exposure could be defined during pesticide treatment whether or not personal protection equipment had been employed by individuals. Data used for computer modelling was obtained from simulated, pesticide substitute treatments using variously damaged knapsack sprayers. These substitute preparations consisted of markers that allowed computer simulations to be made, analogous to real-life exposure situations, in a dose dependent fashion. Exposures were estimated according to operator dosimetry exposure under 'field' conditions for low level, medium and high target field crops. The exposure modelling in the high target field crops demonstrated exceedance of the AOEL in all simulated treatment cases (100%) using damaged sprayers irrespective of the type of damage or if individual protective measures had been adopted or not. For low level and medium field crops exceedances ranged between 40 - 80% cases. The computer modelling may be considered as an practical tool for the hazard assessment when the faulty agricultural sprayers are used. It also may be applied for programming the quality checks and maintenance systems of this equipment.

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tortorelli, J.P.

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medicalmore » uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report.« less

Design and analysis of field studies with bees: A critical review of the draft EFSA guidance.

PubMed

Bakker, Frank

2016-07-01

The specific protection goal, primary assessment endpoints, acceptable effect thresholds, and experimental design proposed in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) update of the bee guidance document are subjected to critical review. It is concluded that the negligible effect criteria were established without sufficient regulatory definition and without convincing scientific argumentation. For the assessment endpoints, effects on hive strength lack temporal definition and the reduction to numbers of bees is inappropriate to evaluate effects. Restricting mortality assessments to homing failure is not theoretically justified and specific criteria were incorrectly derived. The combination of acute effect estimates with models for chronic stressors is biased risk assessment and a temporal basis for the acceptability of effects is missing. Effects on overwintering success cannot be experimentally assessed using the proposed criteria. The experimental methodology proposed is inappropriate and the logistical consequences, in particular those related to replication and land use are such that field studies are no longer a feasible option for the risk assessment. It may be necessary to explore new lines of thought for the set-up of field studies and to clearly separate experimentation from monitoring. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:422-428. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Risk-assessment and risk-taking behavior predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum of rats

PubMed Central

Palm, Sara; Momeni, Shima; Lundberg, Stina; Nylander, Ingrid; Roman, Erika

2014-01-01

Certain personality types and behavioral traits display high correlations to drug use and an increased level of dopamine in the reward system is a common denominator of all drugs of abuse. Dopamine response to drugs has been suggested to correlate with some of these personality types and to be a key factor influencing the predisposition to addiction. This study investigated if behavioral traits can be related to potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum, an area hypothesized to be involved in the shift from drug use to addiction. The open field and multivariate concentric square field™ tests were used to assess individual behavior in male Wistar rats. Chronoamperometric recordings were then made to study the potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in vivo. A classification based on risk-taking behavior in the open field was used for further comparisons. Risk-taking behavior was correlated between the behavioral tests and high risk takers displayed a more pronounced response to the dopamine uptake blocking effects of amphetamine. Behavioral parameters from both tests could also predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine responses showing a correlation between neurochemistry and behavior in risk-assessment and risk-taking parameters. In conclusion, the high risk-taking rats showed a more pronounced reduction of dopamine uptake in the dorsal striatum after amphetamine indicating that this area may contribute to the sensitivity of these animals to psychostimulants and proneness to addiction. Further, inherent dopamine activity was related to risk-assessment behavior, which may be of importance for decision-making and inhibitory control, key components in addiction. PMID:25076877

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetic fields and leukaemia risks in UK electricity supply workers.

PubMed

Sorahan, T

2014-04-01

To investigate whether leukaemia risks are related to occupational exposure to low-frequency magnetic fields. Leukaemia risks experienced by 73 051 employees of the former Central Electricity Generating Board of England and Wales were investigated for the period 1973-2010. All employees were hired in the period 1952-82 and were employed for at least 6 months with some employment in the period 1973-82. Detailed calculations had been performed by others to enable an assessment to be made of exposures to magnetic fields. Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risks (rate ratios) of developing leukaemia or leukaemia subtypes for categories of lifetime, distant (lagged) and recent (lugged) exposure. Findings for all leukaemias combined were unexceptional; risks were close to unity for all exposure categories and there was no suggestion of risks increasing with cumulative (or recent or distant) magnetic field exposures. There were no statistically significant dose-response effects shown for acute myeloid leukaemia, chronic myeloid leukaemia or chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. There was a significant positive trend for acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL), but this was based, in the main, on unusually low risks in the lowest exposure category. This study found no convincing evidence to support the hypothesis that exposure to magnetic fields is a risk factor for leukaemia, and the findings are consistent with the hypotheses that both distant and recent magnetic field exposures are not causally related to the generality of leukaemia. The limited positive findings for ALL may well be chance findings.

Characterization, Monitoring, and Risk Assessment at the IEA GHG Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project, Saskatchewan, Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben, R.; Chalaturnyk, R.; Gardner, C.; Hawkes, C.; Johnson, J.; White, D.; Whittaker, S.

2008-12-01

In July 2000, a major research project was initiated to study the geological storage of CO2 as part of a 5000 tonnes/day EOR project planned for the Weyburn Field in Saskatchewan, Canada. Major objectives of the IEA GHG Weyburn CO2 monitoring and storage project included: assessing the integrity of the geosphere encompassing the Weyburn oil pool for effective long-term storage of CO2; monitoring the movement of the injected CO2, and assessing the risk of migration of CO2 from the injection zone (approximately 1500 metres depth) to the surface. Over the period 2000-2004, a diverse group of 80+ researchers worked on: geological, geophysical, and hydrogeological characterizations at both the regional (100 km beyond the field) and detailed scale (10 km around the field); conducted time-lapse geophysical surveys; carried out surface and subsurface geochemical surveys; and undertook numerical reservoir simulations. Results of the characterization were used for a performance assessment that concluded the risk of CO2 movement to the biosphere was very small. By September 2007, more than 14 Mtonnes of CO2 had been injected into the Weyburn reservoir, including approximately 3 Mtonnes recycled from oil production. A "Final Phase" research project was initiated (2007- 2011) to contribute to a "Best Practices" guide for long-term CO2 storage in EOR settings. Research objectives include: improving the geoscience characterization; further detailed analysis and data collection on the role of wellbores; additional geochemical and geophysical monitoring activities; and an emphasis on quantitative risk assessments using multiple analysis techniques. In this talk a review of results from Phase I will be presented followed by plans and initial results for the Final Phase.

Assessment of Electromagnetic Fields at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ficklen, Carter B.

1995-01-01

This report presents the results of an assessment of ElectroMagnetic Fields (EMF) completed at NASA Langley Research Center as part of the Langley Aerospace Research Summer Scholars Program. This project was performed to determine levels of electromagnetic fields, determine the significance of the levels present, and determine a plan to reduce electromagnetic field exposure, if necessary. This report also describes the properties of electromagnetic fields and their interaction with humans. The results of three major occupational epidemiological studies is presented to determine risks posed to humans by EMF exposure. The data for this report came from peer-reviewed journal articles and government publications pertaining to the health effects of electromagnetic fields.

Field Note-Developing Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Hospital Social Workers: An Academic-Community Partnership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wharff, Elizabeth A.; Ross, Abigail M.; Lambert, Susan

2014-01-01

This article describes 1 large urban pediatric hospital's partnership with a university to provide suicide assessment and management training within its social work department. Social work administrators conducted a department-wide needs assessment and implemented a 2-session suicide assessment training program and evaluation. Respondents…

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattemer-Frey, H.A.; Brandt, E.J.; Travis, C.C.

Commercial genetic engineering is advancing into areas that require the small-scale introduction of genetically engineered microorganisms (GEMs) to better quantify variables that affect microorganism distribution and survival and to document potential long-term consequences. A recombinant DNA marker system, the lacZY marker, developed by the Monsanto Agricultural Co., enables the distribution and fate of marked fluorescent pseudomonad organisms to be monitored under actual field conditions. Critical evaluation of GEMs under field conditions is imperative if plant-beneficial effects are to be correlated with organism release. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of this marker system and its ability to facilitate the assessment ofmore » risks associated with deliberate environmental introductions of genetically engineered microorganisms. Results of prerelease contained growth chamber and field experiments demonstrated that: (1) the scientific risk assessment methodology adopted by Monsanto and approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was appropriate and comprehensive; (2) the deliberate introduction of a GEM did not pose unacceptable or unforeseen risks to human health or the environment; (3) the lacZY marker is an effective environmental tracking tool; and (4) regulatory oversight should reflect the expected risk and not be excessively burdensome for all GEMs.« less

Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

1996-03-22

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input tomore » regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.« less

The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

2017-07-01

Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

A Review of the Field on Children’s Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Alesia; Penney, Rosalind; Solo-Gabriele, Helena

2017-01-01

Background: Children must be recognized as a sensitive population based on having biological systems and organs in various stages of development. The processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination of environmental contaminants within a child’s body are considered less advanced than those of adults, making them more susceptible to disease outcomes following even small doses. Children’s unique activities of crawling and practicing increased hand-to-mouth ingestion also make them vulnerable to greater exposures by certain contaminants within specific environments. Approach: There is a need to review the field of children’s environmental exposures in order to understand trends and identify gaps in research, which may lead to better protection of this vulnerable and sensitive population. Therefore, explored here are previously published contemporary works in the broad area of children’s environmental exposures and potential impact on health from around the world. A discussion of children’s exposure to environmental contaminants is best organized under the last four steps of a risk assessment approach: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment (including children’s activity patterns) and risk characterization. We first consider the many exposure hazards that exist in the indoor and outdoor environments, and emerging contaminants of concern that may help guide the risk assessment process in identifying focus areas for children. A section on special diseases of concern is also included. Conclusions: The field of children’s exposures to environmental contaminants is broad. Although there are some well-studied areas offering much insight into children exposures, research is still needed to further our understanding of exposures to newer compounds, growing disease trends and the role of gene-environment interactions that modify adverse health outcomes. It is clear that behaviors of adults and children play a role in reducing or increasing a child’s exposure, where strategies to better communicate and implement risk modifying behaviors are needed, and can be more effective than implementing   changes in the physical environment. PMID:28273865

A Review of the Field on Children's Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Ferguson, Alesia; Penney, Rosalind; Solo-Gabriele, Helena

2017-03-04

Background : Children must be recognized as a sensitive population based on having biological systems and organs in various stages of development. The processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination of environmental contaminants within a child's body are considered less advanced than those of adults, making them more susceptible to disease outcomes following even small doses. Children's unique activities of crawling and practicing increased hand-to-mouth ingestion also make them vulnerable to greater exposures by certain contaminants within specific environments. Approach : There is a need to review the field of children's environmental exposures in order to understand trends and identify gaps in research, which may lead to better protection of this vulnerable and sensitive population. Therefore, explored here are previously published contemporary works in the broad area of children's environmental exposures and potential impact on health from around the world. A discussion of children's exposure to environmental contaminants is best organized under the last four steps of a risk assessment approach: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment (including children's activity patterns) and risk characterization. We first consider the many exposure hazards that exist in the indoor and outdoor environments, and emerging contaminants of concern that may help guide the risk assessment process in identifying focus areas for children. A section on special diseases of concern is also included. Conclusions : The field of children's exposures to environmental contaminants is broad. Although there are some well-studied areas offering much insight into children exposures, research is still needed to further our understanding of exposures to newer compounds, growing disease trends and the role of gene-environment interactions that modify adverse health outcomes. It is clear that behaviors of adults and children play a role in reducing or increasing a child's exposure, where strategies to better communicate and implement risk modifying behaviors are needed, and can be more effective than implementing   changes in the physical environment.

Development of a Standardized Approach for Assessing Potential Risks to Amphibians Exposed to Sediment and Hydric Soils

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-01

following digestion using method 3005A. Copper concentrations were verified using atomic absorption spectroscopy/graphite furnace. Each chamber...1995. Ammonia Variation in Sediments: Spatial, Temporal and Method -Related Effects. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 14:1499-1506. Savage, W.K., F.W...Regulator Approved Methods and Protocols for Conducting Marine and Terrestrial Risk Assessments 1.III.01.k - Improved Field Analytical Sensors

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA-WISE Data and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-18

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA -WISE Data and Modeling Jeremy Murray Krezan1, Samantha Howard1, Phan D. Dao1, Derek...Surka2 1AFRL Space Vehicles Directorate,2Applied Technology Associates Incorporated From December 2009 through 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared...of known debris. The NASA -WISE GEO belt debris population adds potentially thousands previously uncataloged objects. This paper describes

Human health risk assessment of synthetic turf fields based upon investigation of five fields in Connecticut.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary; Toal, Brian; Simcox, Nancy; Bracker, Anne; Golembiewski, Brian; Kurland, Tara; Hedman, Curtis

2011-01-01

Questions have been raised regarding possible exposures when playing sports on synthetic turf fields cushioned with crumb rubber. Rubber is a complex mixture with some components possessing toxic and carcinogenic properties. Exposure is possible via inhalation, given that chemicals emitted from rubber might end up in the breathing zone of players and these players have high ventilation rates. Previous studies provide useful data but are limited with respect to the variety of fields and scenarios evaluated. The State of Connecticut investigated emissions associated with four outdoor and one indoor synthetic turf field under summer conditions. On-field and background locations were sampled using a variety of stationary and personal samplers. More than 20 chemicals of potential concern (COPC) were found to be above background and possibly field-related on both indoor and outdoor fields. These COPC were entered into separate risk assessments (1) for outdoor and indoor fields and (2) for children and adults. Exposure concentrations were prorated for time spent away from the fields and inhalation rates were adjusted for play activity and for children's greater ventilation than adults. Cancer and noncancer risk levels were at or below de minimis levels of concern. The scenario with the highest exposure was children playing on the indoor field. The acute hazard index (HI) for this scenario approached unity, suggesting a potential concern, although there was great uncertainty with this estimate. The main contributor was benzothiazole, a rubber-related semivolatile organic chemical (SVOC) that was 14-fold higher indoors than outdoors. Based upon these findings, outdoor and indoor synthetic turf fields are not associated with elevated adverse health risks. However, it would be prudent for building operators to provide adequate ventilation to prevent a buildup of rubber-related volatile organic chemicals (VOC) and SVOC at indoor fields. The current results are generally consistent with the findings from studies conducted by New York City, New York State, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Norway, which tested different kinds of fields and under a variety of weather conditions.

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

PubMed Central

Regan, Tracey J.; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A.; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J.; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-01-01

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. PMID:28931744

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-09-27

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors.

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

2008-12-01

Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

Responses of a constructed plant community to combinations of herbicides, a model for field tests?

EPA Science Inventory

As part of its regulation of pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency considers environmental risks, including impacts to nontarget plants exposed to pesticide drift. Normally these risk assessments consider impacts to individual species, using greenhouse, exposure-res...

Responses of constructed plant community to combinations of herbicides, a model for field tests?

EPA Science Inventory

As part of its regulation of pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency must consider environmental risks, including impacts to non-target plants exposed to pesticide drift. Normally these risk assessments consider impacts to individual species, using greenhouse, dose-re...

DESIGN OF FIELD STUDIES FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF BAFS AND BSAFS.

EPA Science Inventory

Bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) and biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) for aquatic organisms are necessary parameters for assessing the ecological risks of nonpolar organic chemicals in aquatic ecosystems. In designing a field study to measure BAFs and/or BSAFs, one of th...

Development and validation of an instrument to assess imminent risk of homelessness among veterans.

PubMed

Montgomery, Ann Elizabeth; Fargo, Jamison D; Kane, Vincent; Culhane, Dennis P

2014-01-01

Veterans are overrepresented within the homeless population compared with their non-veteran counterparts, particularly when controlling for poverty. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) aims to prevent new episodes of homelessness by targeting households at greatest risk; however, there are no instruments that systematically assess veterans' risk of homelessness. We developed and tested a brief screening instrument to identify imminent risk of homelessness among veterans accessing VA health care. The study team developed initial assessment items, conducted cognitive interviews with veterans experiencing homelessness, refined pilot items based on veterans' and experts' feedback and results of psychometric analyses, and assigned weights to items in the final instrument to indicate a measure of homelessness risk. One-third of veterans who responded to the field instrument reported imminent risk of homelessness (i.e., housing instability in the previous 90 days or expected in the next 90 days). The reliability coefficient for the instrument was 0.85, indicating good internal consistency. Veterans who had a recent change in income, had unpaid housing expenses, were living temporarily with family and friends, needed help to get or keep housing, and had poor rental and credit histories were more likely to report a risk of homelessness than those who did not. This study provides the field with an instrument to identify individuals and households at risk of or experiencing homelessness, which is necessary to prevent and end homelessness. In addition, it supports VA's investment in homelessness prevention and rapid rehousing services for veterans who are experiencing or are at risk for homelessness.

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit from coordination of information from several different scientific disciplines, including, for example, toxicology, epidemiology, nutrition, neurotoxicology, and the social sciences. PMID:21776216

Drinking water disinfection by-products exposure and health effects on pregnancy outcomes: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mashau, Funanani; Ncube, Esper Jacobeth; Voyi, Kuku

2018-04-01

Epidemiological studies have found that maternal exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) may lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes although the findings tend to be inconsistent. The objective of this study was to systematically review the evidence in associated with drinking water DBP exposure in relation to adverse pregnancy outcomes. Peer-reviewed articles were identified using electronic databases searched for studies published in the English language. Studies selected for review were evaluated for exposure assessment, confounders, and analyses risks of bias in the selection, outcomes assessment, and attrition. A comprehensive search and screening yielded a total of 32 studies, of which 12 (38%) reported a statistical association between maternal exposure to DBPs and adverse pregnancy outcomes. A maternal exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) shows an increased risk of small for gestational age (SGA) and slightly increased risk of pregnancy loss. Risks of bias were low among the studies included in the review. Evidence on association relating to adverse pregnancy outcomes to DBP exposure is still less significant. There is a need for future robust research in this field, with the use of urinary trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) biomarkers as a direct exposure assessment method for this field.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

Exposure to residential electric and magnetic fields and risk of childhood leukemia.

PubMed

London, S J; Thomas, D C; Bowman, J D; Sobel, E; Cheng, T C; Peters, J M

1991-11-01

The relation between exposure to electric and magnetic fields in the home, as assessed by measurements, wiring configuration, and self-reported appliance use, and risk of leukemia was investigated in a case-control study among children from birth to age 10 years in Los Angeles County, California. Cases were ascertained through a population-based tumor registry from 1980 to 1987. Controls were drawn from friends and by random digit dialing. Interviews were obtained from 232 cases and 232 controls. Available for analysis were measurements of the magnetic field in the child's bedroom over 24 hours or longer (164 cases and 144 controls), spot measurements of magnetic and electric fields (140 cases and 109 controls), and wiring configuration (219 cases and 207 controls). No clear associations between leukemia risk and measured magnetic or electric fields were seen. An association between the Denver Wertheimer-Leeper wiring configuration and childhood leukemia risk was observed (odds ratio for very high relative to very low current and underground configuration combined = 2.15, 95% confidence interval 1.08-4.28; p for trend = 0.008) and was not substantially altered by adjustment for potential confounding factors. Cases were more likely than controls to report use of several appliances that produce high electric and magnetic fields. Our results support an association between childhood leukemia risk and wiring configuration, but not direct measurements of electric and magnetic fields.

Risk assessment, genetic counseling, and clinical care for hereditary breast cancer.

PubMed

Powers, Jacquelyn; Stopfer, Jill Elise

2014-01-01

During the last 30 years, key advances in the field of cancer genetics have improved identification of high-risk families in which cancer risk can be linked to mutations in cancer susceptible genes. Identification of individuals with heritable cancer risk may influence short- and long-term medical management issues. Heightened screening and risk reducing options can offer lifesaving interventions for the woman and family members who are at risk. © 2014 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

Ecotoxicity testing of chemicals with particular reference to pesticides.

PubMed

Walker, Colin H

2006-07-01

Ecotoxicity tests are performed on vertebrates and invertebrates for the environmental risk assessment of pesticides and other chemicals and for a variety of ecotoxicological studies in the laboratory and in the field. Existing practices and strategies in ecotoxicity testing are reviewed, including an account of current requirements of the European Commission for the testing of pesticides and the recent REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restrictions of Chemicals) proposals for industrial chemicals. Criticisms of existing practices have been made on both scientific and ethical grounds, and these are considered before dealing with the question of possible alternative methods and strategies both for environmental risk assessment and for ecotoxicological studies more generally. New approaches from an ecological point of view are compared with recent developments in laboratory-based methods such as toxicity tests, biomarker assays and bioassays. With regard to the development of new strategies for risk assessment, it is suggested that full consideration should be given to the findings of earlier long-term studies of pollution, which identified mechanisms of action by which environmental chemicals can cause natural populations to decline. Neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption are two cases in point, and biomarker assays for them could have an important role in testing new chemicals suspected of having these properties. In a concluding discussion, possible ways of improving testing protocols are discussed, having regard for current issues in the field of environmental risk assessment as exemplified by the debate over the REACH proposals. The importance of flexibility and the roles of ecologists and ecotoxicologists are stressed in the context of environmental risk assessment.

Overview of the Capstone Depleted Uranium Study of Aerosols from Impact with Armored Vehicles: Test Setup and Aerosol Generation, Characterization, and Application in Assessing Dose and Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Guilmette, Raymond A.

2009-03-01

The Capstone Depleted Uranium (DU) Aerosol Characterization and Risk Assessment Study was conducted to generate data about DU aerosols generated during the perforation of armored combat vehicles with large-caliber DU penetrators, and to apply the data in assessments of human health risks to personnel exposed to these aerosols, primarily through inhalation, during the 1991 Gulf War or in future military operations. The Capstone study consisted of two components: 1) generating, sampling and characterizing DU aerosols by firing at and perforating combat vehicles and 2) applying the source-term quantities and characteristics of the aerosols to the evaluation of doses and risks.more » This paper reviews the background of the study including the bases for the study, previous reviews of DU particles and health assessments from DU used by the U.S. military, the objectives of the study components, the participants and oversight teams, and the types of exposures it was intended to evaluate. It then discusses exposure scenarios used in the dose and risk assessment and provides an overview of how the field tests and dose and risk assessments were conducted.« less

Field application of farm-food safety risk assessment (FRAMp) tool for small and medium fresh produce farms.

PubMed

Soon, J M; Davies, W P; Chadd, S A; Baines, R N

2013-02-15

The objective of this study was to develop a farm food safety-risk assessment tool (FRAMp) which serves as a self-assessment and educational tool for fresh produce farms. FRAMp was developed in Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet software using standard mathematical and logical functions and utilised a qualitative risk assessment approach for farmers to evaluate their food safety practices. The FRAMp tool has since been tested on 12 fresh produce farms throughout UK. All the farms determined that FRAMp was interesting but 17% found it too long while 25% of the farms felt the tool was too complicated. The instructions on FRAMp usage were revised and farmers were given the options to skip and select specific steps in the farm risk assessment. The end users (farmers/farm managers) determined that developing their own action plans and using it as proof of assessment for future third-party audits were most useful to them. FRAMp tool can be described as an illustrative risk ranking tool to facilitate farms to identify potential risk factors during their crop production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of tropical cyclone rainfall flooding in the Delaware River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, P.; Lin, N.; Smith, J. A.; Emanuel, K.

2016-12-01

Rainfall-induced inland flooding is a leading cause of death, injury, and property damage from tropical cyclones (TCs). In the context of climate change, it has been shown that extreme precipitation from TCs is likely to increase during the 21st century. Assessing the long-term risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs is therefore an important task. Standard risk assessment techniques, which are based on observations from rain gauges and stream gauges, are not broadly applicable to TC induced flooding, since TCs are rare, extreme events with very limited historical observations at any specific location. Also, rain gauges and stream gauges can hardly capture the complex spatial variation of TC rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, the utility of historically based assessments is compromised by climate change. Regional dynamical downscaling models can resolve many features of TC precipitation. In terms of risk assessment, however, it is computationally demanding to run such models to obtain long-term climatology of TC induced flooding. Here we apply a computationally efficient climatological-hydrological method to assess the risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs. It includes: 1) a deterministic TC climatology modeling method to generate large numbers of synthetic TCs with physically correlated characteristics (i.e., track, intensity, size) under observed and projected climates; 2) a simple physics-based tropical cyclone rainfall model which is able to simulate rainfall fields associated with each synthetic storm; 3) a hydrologic modeling system that takes in rainfall fields to simulate flood peaks over an entire drainage basin. We will present results of this method applied to the Delaware River Basin in the mid-Atlantic US.

Assessing the pollution risk of a groundwater source field at western Laizhou Bay under seawater intrusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn

Coastal areas have great significance for human living, economy and society development in the world. With the rapid increase of pressures from human activities and climate change, the safety of groundwater resource is under the threat of seawater intrusion in coastal areas. The area of Laizhou Bay is one of the most serious seawater intruded areas in China, since seawater intrusion phenomenon was firstly recognized in the middle of 1970s. This study assessed the pollution risk of a groundwater source filed of western Laizhou Bay area by inferring the probability distribution of groundwater Cl{sup −} concentration. The numerical model ofmore » seawater intrusion process is built by using SEAWAT4. The parameter uncertainty of this model is evaluated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and DREAM{sub (ZS)} is used as sampling algorithm. Then, the predictive distribution of Cl{sup -} concentration at groundwater source field is inferred by using the samples of model parameters obtained from MCMC. After that, the pollution risk of groundwater source filed is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup -} concentration. The results of model calibration and verification demonstrate that the DREAM{sub (ZS)} based MCMC is efficient and reliable to estimate model parameters under current observation. Under the condition of 95% confidence level, the groundwater source point will not be polluted by seawater intrusion in future five years (2015–2019). In addition, the 2.5% and 97.5% predictive quantiles show that the Cl{sup −} concentration of groundwater source field always vary between 175 mg/l and 200 mg/l. - Highlights: • The parameter uncertainty of seawater intrusion model is evaluated by MCMC. • Groundwater source field won’t be polluted by seawater intrusion in future 5 years. • The pollution risk is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup −} concentration.« less

Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

2014-05-01

A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be inferred. Lastly, this work draws attention to the use of the IDCT suite as an education resource for inspiring and training new students and engineers in the field of disaster risk reduction.

Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dekang; Wu, Qiang; Cui, Fangpeng; Xu, Hua; Zeng, Yifan; Cao, Yufei; Du, Yuanze

2018-04-01

Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.

Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

PubMed

Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

2017-01-01

A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

Role of mathematical models in assessment of risk and in attempts to define management strategy.

PubMed

Flamm, W G; Winbush, J S

1984-06-01

Risk assessment of food-borne carcinogens is becoming a common practice at FDA. Actual risk is not being estimated, only the upper limit of risk. The risk assessment process involves a large number of steps and assumptions, many of which affect the numerical value estimated. The mathematical model which is to be applied is only one of the factors which affect these numerical values. To fulfill the policy objective of using the "worst plausible case" in estimating the upper limit of risk, recognition needs to be given to a proper balancing of assumptions and decisions. Interaction between risk assessors and risk managers should avoid making or giving the appearance of making specific technical decisions such as the choice of the mathematical model. The importance of this emerging field is too great to jeopardize it by inappropriately mixing scientific judgments with policy judgments. The risk manager should understand fully the points and range of uncertainty involved in arriving at the estimates of risk which must necessarily affect the choice of the policy or regulatory options available.

Does microbicide use in consumer products promote antimicrobial resistance? A critical review and recommendations for a cohesive approach to risk assessment.

PubMed

Maillard, Jean-Yves; Bloomfield, Sally; Coelho, Joana Rosado; Collier, Phillip; Cookson, Barry; Fanning, Séamus; Hill, Andrew; Hartemann, Philippe; McBain, Andrew J; Oggioni, Marco; Sattar, Syed; Schweizer, Herbert P; Threlfall, John

2013-10-01

The increasing use of microbicides in consumer products is raising concerns related to enhanced microbicide resistance in bacteria and potential cross resistance to antibiotics. The recently published documents on this topic from the European Commission have spawned much interest to better understand the true extent of the putative links for the benefit of the manufacturers, regulators, and consumers alike. This white paper is based on a 2-day workshop (SEAC-Unilever, Bedford, United Kingdom; June 2012) in the fields of microbicide usage and resistance. It identifies gaps in our knowledge and also makes specific recommendations for harmonization of key terms and refinement/standardization of methods for testing microbicide resistance to better assess the impact and possible links with cross resistance to antibiotics. It also calls for a better cohesion in research in this field. Such information is crucial to developing any risk assessment framework on microbicide use notably in consumer products. The article also identifies key research questions where there are inadequate data, which, if addressed, could promote improved knowledge and understanding to assess any related risks for consumer and environmental safety.

Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

2012-04-01

The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step. The criterial evaluation is used as a ranking system in order to establish the priorities for the detailed risk assessment. This criterial analysis stage is necessary because the total number of installations and sections on a site can be quite large. As not all installations and sections on a site contribute significantly to the risk of a major accident occurring, it is not efficient to include all installations and sections in the detailed risk assessment, which can be time and resource consuming. The selected installations are then taken into consideration in the detailed risk assessment, which is the third step of the systematic risk assessment methodology. Following this step, conclusions can be drawn related to the overall risk characteristics of the site. The proposed methodology can as such be successfully applied to the assessment of risk related to critical infrastructure elements falling under the energy sector of Critical Infrastructure, mainly the sub-sectors oil and gas. Key words: Systematic risk assessment, criterial analysis, energy sector critical infrastructure elements

Risk assessment based on a combination of historical analysis, a detailed field study and numerical modeling on the alluvial fan Gadeinerbach as a basis for a risk management concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, M.

2009-04-01

The catchment Gadeinerbach in the District of Lungau/Salzburg/Austria is prone to debris flows. Large debris flow events dates back from the years 1934 and 1953. In the upper catchment large mass movements represent debris sources. A field study shows the debris potential and the catchment looks like a "sleeping torrential giant". To carry out mitigation measures a detailed risk management concept, based on a risk assessment in combination of historical analysis, field study and numerical modeling on the alluvial fan was conducted. Human activities have partly altered the surface of the alluvial fan Gadeinerbach but nevertheless some important hazard indicators could be found. With the hazard indicators and photo analysis from the large debris flow event 1934 the catchment character could be pointed out. With the help of these historical data sets (hazard indicators, sediment and debris amount...) it is possible to calibrate the provided numerical models and to win useful knowledge over the pro and cons and their application. The results were used to simulate the design event and furthermore to derive mitigation measures. Therefore the most effective protection against debris with a reduction of the high energy level to a lower level under particular energy change in combination with a debris/bedload deposition place has been carried out. Expert opinion, the study of historical data and a field work is in addition to numerical simulation techniques very necessary for the work in the field of natural hazard management.

Occupational risk assessment in the construction industry in Iran.

PubMed

Seifi Azad Mard, Hamid Reza; Estiri, Ali; Hadadi, Parinaz; Seifi Azad Mard, Mahshid

2017-12-01

Occupational accidents in the construction industry are more common compared with other fields and these accidents are more severe compared with the global average in developing countries, especially in Iran. Studies which lead to the source of these accidents and suggest solutions for them are therefore valuable. In this study a combination of the failure mode and effects analysis method and fuzzy theory is used as a semi-qualitative-quantitative method for analyzing risks and failure modes. The main causes of occupational accidents in this field were identified and analyzed based on three factors; severity, detection and occurrence. Based on whether the risks are high or low priority, modifying actions were suggested to reduce the occupational risks. Finally, the results showed that high priority risks had a 40% decrease due to these actions.

Evaluation of military field-water quality: Volume 6, Infectious organisms of military concern associated with nonconsumptive exposure: Assessment of health risks and recommendations for establishing related standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooper, R.C.; Olivieri, A.W.; Danielson, R.E.

1986-02-01

This study is an assessment of the risk of illness due to exposure to water-related (i.e., water-based, water-washed) infectious organisms. The organisms under consideration are Aeromonas spp., Leptospira spp., Pseudomonas spp., Staphylococcus spp., non-cholerae Vibrio spp., Acanthamoeba spp., Balantidium coli, Naegleria spp., Ascaris lumbricoides, Dracunculus medinesis, Schistosoma spp., and the agents responsible for cercarial dermatitis (i.e., Trichobilharzia, Gigantobilharzia, and Austrobilharzia). Evaluation of the risk to disease associated with the above pathogens requires information in specific areas such as dose response, concentration of agents in the environment, and environmental persistence. The existing body of knowledge concerning these agents ranges from speculationmore » to established fact. Unfortunately, areas of information critical to risk assessment are frequently unavailable. Because of this lack of data, the risk assessment presented is semiquantitative and limited to the presentation of an environmental classification scheme. 14 refs., 2 figs., 57 tabs.« less

Optimal Predator Risk Assessment by the Sonar-Jamming Arctiine Moth Bertholdia trigona

PubMed Central

Corcoran, Aaron J.; Wagner, Ryan D.; Conner, William E.

2013-01-01

Nearly all animals face a tradeoff between seeking food and mates and avoiding predation. Optimal escape theory holds that an animal confronted with a predator should only flee when benefits of flight (increased survival) outweigh the costs (energetic costs, lost foraging time, etc.). We propose a model for prey risk assessment based on the predator's stage of attack. Risk level should increase rapidly from when the predator detects the prey to when it commits to the attack. We tested this hypothesis using a predator – the echolocating bat – whose active biosonar reveals its stage of attack. We used a prey defense – clicking used for sonar jamming by the tiger moth Bertholdia trigona– that can be readily studied in the field and laboratory and is enacted simultaneously with evasive flight. We predicted that prey employ defenses soon after being detected and targeted, and that prey defensive thresholds discriminate between legitimate predatory threats and false threats where a nearby prey is attacked. Laboratory and field experiments using playbacks of ultrasound signals and naturally behaving bats, respectively, confirmed our predictions. Moths clicked soon after bats detected and targeted them. Also, B. trigona clicking thresholds closely matched predicted optimal thresholds for discriminating legitimate and false predator threats for bats using search and approach phase echolocation – the period when bats are searching for and assessing prey. To our knowledge, this is the first quantitative study to correlate the sensory stimuli that trigger defensive behaviors with measurements of signals provided by predators during natural attacks in the field. We propose theoretical models for explaining prey risk assessment depending on the availability of cues that reveal a predator's stage of attack. PMID:23671686

Pre-planting risk assessment models for Stagonospora nodorum blotch in winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB) caused by Parastagonospora nodorum, is a major disease of wheat. Pre-planting factors such as previous crop, tillage, host genotype, disease history, and location of a field affect disease intensity. However, the risk of SNB due to these factors has not been quantif...

Evolution of Mobil`s methods to evaluate exploration and producing opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaynor, C.B.; Cook, D.M. Jr.

1996-08-01

Over the past decade, Mobil has changed significantly in size, structure and focus to improve profitability. Concurrently, work processes and methodologies have been modified to improve resource utilization and opportunity selection. The key imperative has been recognition of the full range of hydrocarbon volume uncertainty, its risk and value. Exploration has focussed on increasing success through improved geotechnical estimates and demonstrating value addition. For Producing, the important tasks: (1) A centralized Exploration and Producing team was formed to help ensure an integrated, consistent worldwide approach to prospect and field assessments. Monte Carlo simulation was instituted to recognize probability-weighted ranges ofmore » possible outcomes for prospects and fields, and hydrocarbon volume category definitions were standardized. (2) Exploration instituted a global Prospect Inventory, tracking wildcat predictions vs. results. Performance analyses led to initiatives to improve the quality and consistency of assessments. Process improvement efforts included the use of multidisciplinary teams and peer reviews. Continued overestimates of hydrocarbon volumes prompted methodology changes such as the use of {open_quotes}reality checks{close_quotes} and log-normal distributions. The communication of value predictions and additions became paramount. (3) Producing now recognizes the need for Exploration`s commercial discoveries and new Producing ventures, notwithstanding the associated risk. Multi-disciplinary teams of engineers and geoscientists work on post-discovery assessments to optimize field development and maximize the value of opportunities. Mobil now integrates volume and risk assessment with correlative future capital investment programs to make proactive strategic choices to maximize shareholder value.« less

[Risk management--a new aspect of quality assessment in intensive care medicine: first results of an analysis of the DIVI's interdisciplinary quality assessment research group].

PubMed

Stiletto, R; Röthke, M; Schäfer, E; Lefering, R; Waydhas, Ch

2006-10-01

Patient security has become one of the major aspects of clinical management in recent years. The crucial point in research was focused on malpractice. In contradiction to the economic process in non medical fields, the analysis of errors during the in-patient treatment time was neglected. Patient risk management can be defined as a structured procedure in a clinical unit with the aim to reduce harmful events. A risk point model was created based on a Delphi process and founded on the DIVI data register. The risk point model was evaluated in clinically working ICU departments participating in the register data base. The results of the risk point evaluation will be integrated in the next data base update. This might be a step to improve the reliability of the register to measure quality assessment in the ICU.

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tortorelli, J.P.

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactivemore » materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.« less

Review of Studies Concerning Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Exposure Assessment in Europe: Low Frequency Fields (50 Hz–100 kHz)

PubMed Central

Gajšek, Peter; Ravazzani, Paolo; Grellier, James; Samaras, Theodoros; Bakos, József; Thuróczy, György

2016-01-01

We aimed to review the findings of exposure assessment studies done in European countries on the exposure of the general public to low frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) of various frequencies. The study shows that outdoor average extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) in public areas in urban environments range between 0.05 and 0.2 µT in terms of flux densities, but stronger values (of the order of a few µT) may occur directly beneath high-voltage power lines, at the walls of transformer buildings, and at the boundary fences of substations. In the indoor environment, high values have been measured close to several domestic appliances (up to the mT range), some of which are held close to the body, e.g., hair dryers, electric shavers. Common sources of exposure to intermediate frequencies (IF) include induction cookers, compact fluorescent lamps, inductive charging systems for electric cars and security or anti-theft devices. No systematic measurement surveys or personal exposimetry data for the IF range have been carried out and only a few reports on measurements of EMFs around such devices are mentioned. According to the available European exposure assessment studies, three population exposure categories were classified by the authors regarding the possible future risk analysis. This classification should be considered a crucial advancement for exposure assessment, which is a mandatory step in any future health risk assessment of EMFs exposure. PMID:27598182

Review of Studies Concerning Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Exposure Assessment in Europe: Low Frequency Fields (50 Hz-100 kHz).

PubMed

Gajšek, Peter; Ravazzani, Paolo; Grellier, James; Samaras, Theodoros; Bakos, József; Thuróczy, György

2016-09-01

We aimed to review the findings of exposure assessment studies done in European countries on the exposure of the general public to low frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) of various frequencies. The study shows that outdoor average extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) in public areas in urban environments range between 0.05 and 0.2 µT in terms of flux densities, but stronger values (of the order of a few µT) may occur directly beneath high-voltage power lines, at the walls of transformer buildings, and at the boundary fences of substations. In the indoor environment, high values have been measured close to several domestic appliances (up to the mT range), some of which are held close to the body, e.g., hair dryers, electric shavers. Common sources of exposure to intermediate frequencies (IF) include induction cookers, compact fluorescent lamps, inductive charging systems for electric cars and security or anti-theft devices. No systematic measurement surveys or personal exposimetry data for the IF range have been carried out and only a few reports on measurements of EMFs around such devices are mentioned. According to the available European exposure assessment studies, three population exposure categories were classified by the authors regarding the possible future risk analysis. This classification should be considered a crucial advancement for exposure assessment, which is a mandatory step in any future health risk assessment of EMFs exposure.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment—Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Lentz, T. J.; Dotson, G. S.; Williams, P. R.D.; Maier, A.; Gadagbui, B.; Pandalai, S. P.; Lamba, A.; Hearl, F.; Mumtaz, M.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational. PMID:26583907

[Evaluation of the risk related to repetitive work activities: testing of several methods proposed in the literature].

PubMed

Capodaglio, E M; Facioli, M; Bazzini, G

2001-01-01

Pathologies due to the repetitive activity of the upper limbs constitutes a growing part of the work-related musculo-skeletal disorders. At the moment, there are no universally accepted and validated methods for the description and assessment of the work-related risks. Yet, the criteria fundamentally characterizing the exposure are rather clear and even. This study reports a practical example of the application of some recent risk assessment methods proposed in the literature, combining objective and subjective measures obtained on the field, with the traditional activity analysis.

Conceptualization and Pilot Testing of a Core Competency-Based Training Workshop in Suicide Risk Assessment and Management: Notes From the Field.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Bryson, Claire N; Eichorst, Morgam K; Keyes, Lee N; Ridge, Brittany E

2017-03-01

As professional psychology training programs and continuing education have moved toward competency based approaches, it has become equally important to develop uniform, evidence-based approaches for suicide risk assessment and management. The present article presents a workshop curriculum based on established core competencies in suicide risk assessment and management. Drawing on theories suicide risk formation, the workshop features an integration of didactic, process, and experiential components. We present pilot data from 2 small group workshops (n = 17): 1 from a clinical psychology doctoral program and 1 from a university counseling center. Workshop participation yielded increases in (a) the ability to recognize appropriate clinician responses to suicidal client statements, (b) self-perceptions of general capacity to interface with suicidal patients and mastery of the 10 core competencies, (c) factual knowledge concerning suicide risk assessment and management, and (d) the self-rated ability to assess and manage a suicidal patient. We discuss statistical and generalizability limitations as well as implications for future modification, implementation, and provision of this training method. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

PubMed

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A screening-level assessment of the health risks of chronic smoke exposure for wildland firefighters.

PubMed

Booze, Thomas F; Reinhardt, Timothy E; Quiring, Sharon J; Ottmar, Roger D

2004-05-01

A screening health risk assessment was performed to assess the upper-bound risks of cancer and noncancer adverse health effects among wildland firefighters performing wildfire suppression and prescribed burn management. Of the hundreds of chemicals in wildland fire smoke, we identified 15 substances of potential concern from the standpoints of concentration and toxicology; these included aldehydes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, benzene, and respirable particulate matter. Data defining daily exposures to smoke at prescribed burns and wildfires, potential days of exposure in a year, and career lengths were used to estimate average and reasonable maximum career inhalation exposures to these substances. Of the 15 substances in smoke that were evaluated, only benzene and formaldehyde posed a cancer risk greater than 1 per million, while only acrolein and respirable particulate matter exposures resulted in hazard indices greater than 1.0. The estimated upper-bound cancer risks ranged from 1.4 to 220 excess cancers per million, and noncancer hazard indices ranged from 9 to 360, depending on the exposure group. These values only indicate the likelihood of adverse health effects, not whether they will or will not occur. The risk assessment process narrows the field of substances that deserve further assessment, and the hazards identified by risk assessment generally agree with those identified as a concern in occupational exposure assessments.

Tenax extraction as a simple approach to improve environmental risk assessments.

PubMed

Harwood, Amanda D; Nutile, Samuel A; Landrum, Peter F; Lydy, Michael J

2015-07-01

It is well documented that using exhaustive chemical extractions is not an effective means of assessing exposure of hydrophobic organic compounds in sediments and that bioavailability-based techniques are an improvement over traditional methods. One technique that has shown special promise as a method for assessing the bioavailability of hydrophobic organic compounds in sediment is the use of Tenax-extractable concentrations. A 6-h or 24-h single-point Tenax-extractable concentration correlates to both bioaccumulation and toxicity. This method has demonstrated effectiveness for several hydrophobic organic compounds in various organisms under both field and laboratory conditions. In addition, a Tenax bioaccumulation model was developed for multiple compounds relating 24-h Tenax-extractable concentrations to oligochaete tissue concentrations exposed in both the laboratory and field. This model has demonstrated predictive capacity for additional compounds and species. Use of Tenax-extractable concentrations to estimate exposure is rapid, simple, straightforward, and relatively inexpensive, as well as accurate. Therefore, this method would be an invaluable tool if implemented in risk assessments. © 2015 SETAC.

Assessing the risks of trace elements in environmental materials under selected greenhouse vegetable production systems of China.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Huang, Biao; Hu, Wenyou; Weindorf, David C; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Niedermann, Silvana

2014-02-01

The risk assessment of trace elements of different environmental media in conventional and organic greenhouse vegetable production systems (CGVPS and OGVPS) can reveal the influence of different farming philosophy on the trace element accumulations and their effects on human health. These provide important basic data for the environmental protection and human health. This paper presents trace element accumulation characteristics of different land uses; reveals the difference of soil trace element accumulation both with and without consideration of background levels; compares the trace element uptake by main vegetables; and assesses the trace element risks of soils, vegetables, waters and agricultural inputs, using two selected greenhouse vegetable systems in Nanjing, China as examples. Results showed that greenhouse vegetable fields contained significant accumulations of Zn in CGVPS relative to rice-wheat rotation fields, open vegetable fields, and geochemical background levels, and this was the case for organic matter in OGVPS. The comparative analysis of the soil medium in two systems with consideration of geochemical background levels and evaluation of the geo-accumulation pollution index achieved a more reasonable comparison and accurate assessment relative to the direct comparison analysis and the evaluation of the Nemerow pollution index, respectively. According to the Chinese food safety standards and the value of the target hazard quotient or hazard index, trace element contents of vegetables were safe for local residents in both systems. However, the spatial distribution of the estimated hazard index for producers still presented certain specific hotspots which may cause potential risk for human health in CGVPS. The water was mainly influenced by nitrogen, especially for CGVPS, while the potential risk of Cd and Cu pollution came from sediments in OGVPS. The main inputs for trace elements were fertilizers which were relatively safe based on relevant standards; but excess application caused trace element accumulations in the environmental media. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites - Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahura, A. G.; Baklanov, A. A.

2003-10-01

The probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger.

Assessment of radiation-induced second cancer risks in proton therapy and IMRT for organs inside the primary radiation field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paganetti, Harald; Athar, Basit S.; Moteabbed, Maryam; Adams, Judith A.; Schneider, Uwe; Yock, Torunn I.

2012-10-01

There is clinical evidence that second malignancies in radiation therapy occur mainly within the beam path, i.e. in the medium or high-dose region. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk for developing a radiation-induced tumor within the treated volume and to compare this risk for proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy (IMRT). Instead of using data for specific patients we have created a representative scenario. Fully contoured age- and gender-specific whole body phantoms (4 year and 14 year old) were uploaded into a treatment planning system and tumor volumes were contoured based on patients treated for optic glioma and vertebral body Ewing's sarcoma. Treatment plans for IMRT and proton therapy treatments were generated. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) for developing a second malignancy were calculated using a risk model considering cell kill, mutation, repopulation, as well as inhomogeneous organ doses. For standard fractionation schemes, the LAR for developing a second malignancy from radiation therapy alone was found to be up to 2.7% for a 4 year old optic glioma patient treated with IMRT considering a soft-tissue carcinoma risk model only. Sarcoma risks were found to be below 1% in all cases. For a 14 year old, risks were found to be about a factor of 2 lower. For Ewing's sarcoma cases the risks based on a sarcoma model were typically higher than the carcinoma risks, i.e. LAR up to 1.3% for soft-tissue sarcoma. In all cases, the risk from proton therapy turned out to be lower by at least a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 10. This is mainly due to lower total energy deposited in the patient when using proton beams. However, the comparison of a three-field and four-field proton plan also shows that the distribution of the dose, i.e. the particular treatment plan, plays a role. When using different fractionation schemes, the estimated risks roughly scale with the total dose difference in%. In conclusion, proton therapy can significantly reduce the risk for developing an in-field second malignancy. The risk depends on treatment planning parameters, i.e. an analysis based on our formalism could be applied within treatment planning programs to guide treatment plans for pediatric patients.

Human Health Risks Associated with Metals from Urban Soil and Road Dust in an Oilfield Area of Southeastern Algeria.

PubMed

Benhaddya, Mohammed Lamine; Boukhelkhal, Abdelaziz; Halis, Youcef; Hadjel, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Hassi Messaoud town is a recent city that is situated inside the oil field, which hosts an important petroleum extraction field and refinery. Large-scale and long-term oil refinery and corresponding industrial activities may contaminate the surrounding soil/dust and could lead to pollution levels that can affect human health. The soil and road dust samples were analysed for different trace elements: copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). Geo-accumulation index (I(geo)), pollution index (PI), and integrated pollution index (IPI) were calculated to evaluate the heavy metal contamination level of urban soil and road dust. The I(geo) values indicate unpolluted to moderate polluted of investigated metals in the soil samples. The assessment results of PI support the results of I(geo), and IPI indicates heavy metals in road dust polluted seriously. The noncarcinogenic health risk assessment shows that ingestion of soil/dust particles is the route for exposure to heavy metals, followed by dermal adsorption. The human exposure risk assessment based on different exposure pathways showed that the hazard index (HI) was <1.0 for all of the elements. The relative exposure risk (noncarcinogenic) was greater for toddlers. Although the overall risk was within the acceptable limit of 1.00, the HI of Pb from the soil (0.103) and road dust (0.132) was close to the threshold limits, which over the long-term may pose a health risk.

Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include n...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred

The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

Assessment scale of risk for surgical positioning injuries 1

PubMed Central

Lopes, Camila Mendonça de Moraes; Haas, Vanderlei José; Dantas, Rosana Aparecida Spadoti; de Oliveira, Cheila Gonçalves; Galvão, Cristina Maria

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: to build and validate a scale to assess the risk of surgical positioning injuries in adult patients. Method: methodological research, conducted in two phases: construction and face and content validation of the scale and field research, involving 115 patients. Results: the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning contains seven items, each of which presents five subitems. The scale score ranges between seven and 35 points in which, the higher the score, the higher the patient's risk. The Content Validity Index of the scale corresponded to 0.88. The application of Student's t-test for equality of means revealed the concurrent criterion validity between the scores on the Braden scale and the constructed scale. To assess the predictive criterion validity, the association was tested between the presence of pain deriving from surgical positioning and the development of pressure ulcer, using the score on the Risk Assessment Scale for the Development of Injuries due to Surgical Positioning (p<0.001). The interrater reliability was verified using the intraclass correlation coefficient, equal to 0.99 (p<0.001). Conclusion: the scale is a valid and reliable tool, but further research is needed to assess its use in clinical practice. PMID:27579925

The assessment of spray drift damage for ten major crops in Belgium.

PubMed

de Schampheleire, M; Spanoghe, P; Steurbaut, W; Nuyttens, D; Sonck, B

2005-01-01

According to the Council Directive 91/414/EC pesticide damage should be assessed by considering the risk for persons arising from occupational, non-dietary exposure and risk to the environment. In this research an assessment for the pesticide damage by droplet spray drift was set up. The percentages of spray drift were estimated with the Ganzelmeier drift curves and the IMAG drift calculator. Knowing the percentages of drift and the applied doses of pesticide formulations in a given crop, the human and environmental exposures (water and bottom) were predicted. Thereupon risk indices were calculated for water organisms, soil organisms and bystanders. A risk index is the ratio of a predicted exposure to a toxicological reference value and gives an indication of the incidence and the severity of the adverse effects likely to occur. Considering the risk index it is possible to define the minimal width of an unsprayed field margin or "buffer zone" to reduce this risk at an acceptable level.

Marine pollution in the Libyan coastal area: Environmental and risk assessment.

PubMed

Bonsignore, Maria; Salvagio Manta, Daniela; Al-Tayeb Sharif, Ehab A; D'Agostino, Fabio; Traina, Anna; Quinci, Enza Maria; Giaramita, Luigi; Monastero, Calogera; Benothman, Mohamed; Sprovieri, Mario

2018-03-01

A comprehensive assessment of the potential adverse effects on environment and human health generated by the inputs of chemicals from the most important Libyan petrochemical plant is presented. Ecotoxicological risk associated with the presence of As, Hg, Ni, Zn and PAHs in marine sediments is low or moderate, with a probability of toxicity for ecosystem <9% and <20% for heavy metals and PAHs respectively. However, surface sediments result strongly enriched in Hg and As of anthropogenic origin. Investigation of metals in fish allowed to assess potential risks for human populations via fish intake. Target hazard quotients values indicate potential risk associated to toxic metals exposure by fish consumption and lifetime cancer risk (TR) values highlight a potential carcinogen risk associated to As intake. Noteworthy, the presented results provide an unprecedented environmental dataset in an area where the availability of field data is very scant, for a better understanding of anthropogenic impacts at Mediterranean scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toxicity assessment of Titanium Dioxide and Cerium Oxide nanoparticles in Arabidopsis thaliana L.

EPA Science Inventory

The production and applications of nanoparticles (NP) in diverse fields has steadily increased in recent decades; however, knowledge about risks of NP to human health and ecosystems is still scarce. In this study, we assessed potential toxicity of two commercially used engineere...

Nanopharmaceuticals: Tiny challenges for the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Berkner, Silvia; Schwirn, Kathrin; Voelker, Doris

2016-04-01

Many new developments and innovations in health care are based on nanotechnology. The field of nanopharmaceuticals is diverse and not as new as one might think; indeed, nanopharmaceuticals have been marketed for many years, and the future is likely to bring more nanosized compounds to the market. Therefore, it is time to examine whether the environmental risk assessment for human pharmaceuticals is prepared to assess the exposure, fate, and effects of nanopharmaceuticals in an adequate way. Challenges include the different definitions for nanomaterials and nanopharmaceuticals, different regulatory frameworks, the diversity of nanopharmaceuticals, the scope of current regulatory guidelines, and the applicability of test protocols. Based on the current environmental risk assessment for human medicinal products in the European Union, necessary adaptations for the assessment procedures and underlying study protocols are discussed and emerging solutions identified. © 2015 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Neurodegenerative disease and magnetic field exposure in UK electricity supply workers.

PubMed

Sorahan, T; Mohammed, N

2014-09-01

Previous research has suggested a possible link between neurodegenerative disease and exposure to extremely low-frequency electric and magnetic fields. To investigate whether risks of Alzheimer's, motor neurone or Parkinson's disease are related to occupational exposure to magnetic fields. The mortality experienced by a cohort of 73051 employees of the former Central Electricity Generating Board of England and Wales was investigated for the period 1973-2010. All employees were hired in the period 1952-82, were employed for at least 6 months and had some employment after 1 January 1973. Detailed calculations had been performed by others to enable an assessment to be made of exposures to magnetic fields. Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risks (rate ratios) of developing any of the three diseases under investigation for categories of lifetime, distant (lagged) and recent (lugged) exposure. No statistically significant trends were shown for risks of any of these diseases to increase with estimates of lifetime, recent or distant exposure to magnetic fields. There is no convincing evidence that UK electricity generation and transmission workers have suffered elevated risks from neurodegenerative diseases as a consequence of exposure to magnetic fields. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile

2013-11-13

Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile; Neamtu, Camelia

2013-11-01

Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

A Model Program for the Retention of High-Risk, Postsecondary Vocational Students. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cossatot Vocational Technical School, DeQueen, AR.

An orientation, testing, and counseling program to improve the dropout rate of at-risk postsecondary vocational students in Arkansas was developed and field tested at Cossatot Vocational Technical School, DeQueen, Arkansas. Project activities included: (1) improving prevocational exploration and assessment through the development of a…

Patterns and Consequences of in ovo Exposure to Methylmercury in Common Loons, poster presentation

EPA Science Inventory

A critical component of a common loon/mercury (Hg) risk assessment model under development is the determination of the concentration of Hg in eggs that poses a population level risk. We conducted a field study to (1) characterize in ovo methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in Wisconsin...

Tempo-spatial downscaling of multiple GCMs projections for soil erosion risk analysis at El Reno, Oklahoma, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper spatial and temporal treatments of climate change scenarios projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are critical to accurate assessment of climatic impacts on natural resources and ecosystems. For accurate prediction of soil erosion risk at a particular farm or field under climate cha...

Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

An Assessment of the Risk of Bias in Randomized Controlled Trial Reports Published in Prosthodontic and Implant Dentistry Journals.

PubMed

Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Kloukos, Dimitrios; Petridis, Haralampos; Pandis, Nikolaos

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the risk of bias of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in prosthodontic and implant dentistry journals. The last 30 issues of 9 journals in the field of prosthodontic and implant dentistry (Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Implant Dentistry, International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, International Journal of Periodontics and Restorative Dentistry, International Journal of Prosthodontics, Journal of Dentistry, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, and Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry) were hand-searched for RCTs. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool and analyzed descriptively. From the 3,667 articles screened, a total of 147 RCTs were identified and included. The number of published RCTs increased with time. The overall distribution of a high risk of bias assessment varied across the domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: 8% for random sequence generation, 18% for allocation concealment, 41% for masking, 47% for blinding of outcome assessment, 7% for incomplete outcome data, 12% for selective reporting, and 41% for other biases. The distribution of high risk of bias for RCTs published in the selected prosthodontic and implant dentistry journals varied among journals and ranged from 8% to 47%, which can be considered as substantial.

Out-of-field organ doses and associated radiogenic risks from para-aortic radiotherapy for testicular seminoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazonakis, Michalis, E-mail: mazonak@med.uoc.gr; Berris, Theocharis; Damilakis, John

Purpose: The aims of this study were to (a) calculate the radiation dose to out-of-field organs from radiotherapy for stage I testicular seminoma and (b) estimate the associated radiogenic risks. Methods: Monte Carlo methodology was employed to model radiation therapy with typical anteroposterior and posteroanterior para-aortic fields on an anthropomorphic phantom simulating an average adult. The radiation dose received by all main and remaining organs that defined by the ICRP publication 103 and excluded from the treatment volume was calculated. The effect of field dimensions on each organ dose was determined. Additional therapy simulations were generated by introducing shielding blocksmore » to protect the kidneys from primary radiation. The gonadal dose was employed to assess the risk of heritable effects for irradiated male patients of reproductive potential. The lifetime attributable risks (LAR) of radiotherapy-induced cancer were estimated using gender- and organ-specific risk coefficients for patient ages of 20, 30, 40, and 50 years old. The risk values were compared with the respective nominal risks. Results: Para-aortic irradiation to 20 Gy resulted in out-of-field organ doses of 5.0–538.6 mGy. Blocked field treatment led to a dose change up to 28%. The mean organ dose variation by increasing or decreasing the applied field dimensions was 18.7% ± 3.9% and 20.8% ± 4.5%, respectively. The out-of-field photon doses increased the lifetime intrinsic risk of developing thyroid, lung, bladder, prostate, and esophageal cancer by (0.1–1.4)%, (0.4–1.1)%, (2.5–5.4)%, (0.2–0.4)%, and (6.4–9.2)%, respectively, depending upon the patient age at exposure and the field size employed. A low risk for heritable effects of less than 0.029% was found compared with the natural incidence of these defects. Conclusions: Testicular cancer survivors are subjected to an increased risk for the induction of bladder and esophageal cancer following para-aortic radiotherapy. The probability for the appearance of any other malignant disease to out-of-field organs was slightly elevated in respect to the nominal cancer incidence rates.« less

Using SPMDs To Assess Natural Recovery Of PCB-Contaminated Sediments In Lake Hartwell, SC: I. A Field Test Of New In-Situ Deployment Methods

EPA Science Inventory

Results from the field testing of some innovative sampling methods developed to evaluate risk management strategies for polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminated sediments are presented. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were combined with novel deployment methods to quan...

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 6. Infectious Organisms of Military Concern Associated with Nonconsumptive Exposure: An Assessment of Health Risks and Recommendations for Establishing Related Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

infected animals or their urine. Occupations that may he 3t risk 3-2 Volume 6 include farmers, particularly in the Third World; field workers , 10 especially...Truk in the Caroline• Islands, distribution was equal between the sexes and among various age categories. Some reports state that females and children...Central Plateau. As noted in several studies, no general sex differences appear to exist in the susceptibility or incidence of Ascaris infection . 2

Electric shocks at work in Europe: development of a job exposure matrix.

PubMed

Huss, Anke; Vermeulen, Roel; Bowman, Joseph D; Kheifets, Leeka; Kromhout, Hans

2013-04-01

Electric shocks have been suggested as a potential risk factor for neurological disease, in particular for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. While actual exposure to shocks is difficult to measure, occurrence and variation of electric injuries could serve as an exposure proxy. We assessed risk of electric injury, using occupational accident registries across Europe to develop an electric shock job-exposure-matrix (JEM). Injury data were obtained from five European countries, and the number of workers per occupation and country from EUROSTAT was compiled at a 3-digit International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 level. We pooled accident rates across countries with a random effects model and categorised jobs into low, medium and high risk based on the 75th and 90th percentile. We next compared our JEM to a JEM that classified extremely low frequency magnetic field exposure of jobs into low, medium and high. Of 116 job codes, occupations with high potential for electric injury exposure were electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters, building frame workers and finishers, machinery mechanics and fitters, metal moulders and welders, assemblers, mining and construction labourers, metal-products machine operators, ships' decks crews and power production and related plant operators. Agreement between the electrical injury and magnetic field JEM was 67.2%. Our JEM classifies occupational titles according to risk of electric injury as a proxy for occurrence of electric shocks. In addition to assessing risk potentially arising from electric shocks, this JEM might contribute to disentangling risks from electric injury from those of extremely low frequency magnetic field exposure.

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

PubMed

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Occurrence and field densities of Coleoptera in the maize herb layer: implications for Environmental Risk Assessment of genetically modified Bt-maize.

PubMed

Rauschen, Stefan; Schaarschmidt, Frank; Gathmann, Achim

2010-10-01

Beetles (Coleoptera) are a diverse and ecologically important group of insects in agricultural systems. The Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of genetically modified Bt-crop varieties with insect resistances thus needs to consider and assess the potential negative impacts on non-target organisms belonging to this group. We analysed data gathered during 6 years of field-release experiments on the impact of two genetically modified Bt-maize varieties (Ostrinia-resistant MON810 and Diabrotica-resistant MON88017) on the occurrence and field densities of Coleoptera, especially the two families Coccinellidae and Chrysomelidae. Based on a statistical analysis aimed at establishing whether Bt-maize varieties are equivalent to their near-isogenic counterparts, we discuss the limitations of using field experiments to assess the effects of Bt-maize on these two beetle families. The densities of most of the beetle families recorded in the herb layer were very low in all growing seasons. Coccinellidae and Chrysomelidae were comparatively abundant and diverse, but still low in numbers. Based on their role as biological control agents, Coccinellidae should be a focus in the ERA of Bt-plants, but given the large natural variability in ladybird densities in the field, most questions need to be addressed in low-tier laboratory tests. Chrysomelidae should play a negligible role in the ERA of Bt-plants, since they occur on-crop as secondary pests only. Species occurring off-crop, however, can be addressed in a similar fashion as non-target Lepidoptera in Cry1Ab expressing Bt-maize.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene (CASRN 79-01-6)

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populat...

Assessing the Culture of Fresh Produce Safety within a Leafy Green Producing Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolte, Kurt D.; Sanchez, Charles A.; Fonseca, Jorge M.

2011-01-01

The 2006 "Escherichia coli" outbreak in spinach prompted the implementation of unprecedented production strategies (Arizona Leafy Green Products Shipper Marketing Agreement) to minimize microbial risk in leafy greens. As the new procedures require assessments of physical intrusion and excrement in fields, outreach was initiated to…

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

A Systematic Evaluation of Field-Based Screening Methods for the Assessment of Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) Injury Risk.

PubMed

Fox, Aaron S; Bonacci, Jason; McLean, Scott G; Spittle, Michael; Saunders, Natalie

2016-05-01

Laboratory-based measures provide an accurate method to identify risk factors for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury; however, these methods are generally prohibitive to the wider community. Screening methods that can be completed in a field or clinical setting may be more applicable for wider community use. Examination of field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk can aid in identifying the most applicable method(s) for use in these settings. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate and compare field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk to determine their efficacy of use in wider community settings. An electronic database search was conducted on the SPORTDiscus™, MEDLINE, AMED and CINAHL databases (January 1990-July 2015) using a combination of relevant keywords. A secondary search of the same databases, using relevant keywords from identified screening methods, was also undertaken. Studies identified as potentially relevant were independently examined by two reviewers for inclusion. Where consensus could not be reached, a third reviewer was consulted. Original research articles that examined screening methods for ACL injury risk that could be undertaken outside of a laboratory setting were included for review. Two reviewers independently assessed the quality of included studies. Included studies were categorized according to the screening method they examined. A description of each screening method, and data pertaining to the ability to prospectively identify ACL injuries, validity and reliability, recommendations for identifying 'at-risk' athletes, equipment and training required to complete screening, time taken to screen athletes, and applicability of the screening method across sports and athletes were extracted from relevant studies. Of 1077 citations from the initial search, a total of 25 articles were identified as potentially relevant, with 12 meeting all inclusion/exclusion criteria. From the secondary search, eight further studies met all criteria, resulting in 20 studies being included for review. Five ACL-screening methods-the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), Clinic-Based Algorithm, Observational Screening of Dynamic Knee Valgus (OSDKV), 2D-Cam Method, and Tuck Jump Assessment-were identified. There was limited evidence supporting the use of field-based screening methods in predicting ACL injuries across a range of populations. Differences relating to the equipment and time required to complete screening methods were identified. Only screening methods for ACL injury risk were included for review. Field-based screening methods developed for lower-limb injury risk in general may also incorporate, and be useful in, screening for ACL injury risk. Limited studies were available relating to the OSDKV and 2D-Cam Method. The LESS showed predictive validity in identifying ACL injuries, however only in a youth athlete population. The LESS also appears practical for community-wide use due to the minimal equipment and set-up/analysis time required. The Clinic-Based Algorithm may have predictive value for ACL injury risk as it identifies athletes who exhibit high frontal plane knee loads during a landing task, but requires extensive additional equipment and time, which may limit its application to wider community settings.

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. At the present time, current USEPA risk assessments do not include population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a new mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to use agricultural fields during their breeding season. The new model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model has been applied to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides used to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to use cornfields in midwestern agroecosystems. The 12 insecticides that were assessed in this study are all used to treat major pests of corn (corn root worm borer, cutworm, and armyworm). After running the integrated TIM/MCnest model, we found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and ë-cyhalothrin (

Use of Biomarkers in Oil Spill Risk Assessment in the marine environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Jack W.; Lee, Richard F.

2006-12-01

Numerous molecular, cellular and physiological biomarkers have been used to assess the responses of marine animals to petroleum compounds. To be used in ecological risk assessment after an oil spill, a biomarker response needs to be linked to petroleum exposure and not strongly influenced by internal and external confounding factors. Biomarker responses to petroleum PAH, dominated by alkylated two- and three-ringed aromatics, can be quite different than responses to pyrogenic PAH, dominated by four- and five-ringed aromatics. In many field sites there is a mixture of petrogenic and pyrogenic PAH, along with other contaminant, making it difficult to relate biomarkermore » responses to a particular contaminant class. Biomarkers used to assess marine animal responses in the field include the cytochrome P450 system, heat stress protein, histopathology and bile fluorescent compounds (FAC). Other biomarkers, including DNA/chromosomal damage and phase 2 enzymes, have been shown to respond after laboratory exposure, but more works needs to be done to demonstrate their usefulness in the field. One of the most useful biomarkers of petroleum exposure are the FAC responses in fish, which can be used to distinguish between petrogenic and pyrogenic PAH exposure. Few of the presently used biomarkers are linked to higher order biological effects, e.g toxicity, reproductive failure.« less

Effects of noise and electromagnetic fields on reproductive outcomes.

PubMed Central

Meyer, R E; Aldrich, T E; Easterly, C E

1989-01-01

Much public health research has been directed to studies of cancer risks due to chemical agents. Recently, increasing attention has been given to adverse reproductive outcomes as another, shorter-term biologic indicator of public health impact. Further, several low-level ubiquitous physical agents have been implicated recently as possibly affecting human health. These physical factors (noise and electromagnetic fields) represent difficult topics for research with epidemiologic study methods. This paper provides a brief review of the published data related to the risk of adverse reproductive outcomes and exposure to noise or electromagnetic fields. The discussion includes ideas for possible biologic mechanisms, considerations for exposure assessment, and suggestions for epidemiologic research. PMID:2667980

Connections between voice ergonomic risk factors in classrooms and teachers' voice production.

PubMed

Rantala, Leena M; Hakala, Suvi; Holmqvist, Sofia; Sala, Eeva

2012-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate if voice ergonomic risk factors in classrooms correlated with acoustic parameters of teachers' voice production. The voice ergonomic risk factors in the fields of working culture, working postures and indoor air quality were assessed in 40 classrooms using the Voice Ergonomic Assessment in Work Environment - Handbook and Checklist. Teachers (32 females, 8 males) from the above-mentioned classrooms recorded text readings before and after a working day. Fundamental frequency, sound pressure level (SPL) and the slope of the spectrum (alpha ratio) were analyzed. The higher the number of the risk factors in the classrooms, the higher SPL the teachers used and the more strained the males' voices (increased alpha ratio) were. The SPL was already higher before the working day in the teachers with higher risk than in those with lower risk. In the working environment with many voice ergonomic risk factors, speakers increase voice loudness and use more strained voice quality (males). A practical implication of the results is that voice ergonomic assessments are needed in schools. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Work plan for conducting an ecological risk assessment at J-Field, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.; Kuperman, R.

1995-03-01

The Environmental Management Division of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, is conducting a remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) of the J-Field area at APG pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. J-Field is within the Edgewood Area of APG in Harford County, Maryland, and activities at the Edgewood Area since World War II have included the development, manufacture, testing, and destruction of chemical agents and munitions. The J-Field site was used to destroy chemical agents and munitions by open burning and open detonation. This work plan presents the approach proposed to conduct anmore » ecological risk assessment (ERA) as part of the RI/FS program at J-Field. This work plan identifies the locations and types of field studies proposed for each area of concern (AOC), the laboratory studies proposed to evaluate toxicity of media, and the methodology to be used in estimating doses to ecological receptors and discusses the approach that will be used to estimate and evaluate ecological risks at J-Field. Eight AOCs have been identified at J-Field, and the proposed ERA is designed to evaluate the potential for adverse impacts to ecological receptors from contaminated media at each AOC, as well as over the entire J-Field site. The proposed ERA approach consists of three major phases, incorporating field and laboratory studies as well as modeling. Phase 1 includes biotic surveys of the aquatic and terrestrial habitats, biological tissue sampling and analysis, and media toxicity testing at each AOC and appropriate reference locations. Phase 2 includes definitive toxicity testing of media from areas of known or suspected contamination or of media for which the Phase 1 results indicate toxicity or adverse ecological effects. In Phase 3, the uptake models initially developed in Phase 2 will be finalized, and contaminant dose to each receptor from all complete pathways will be estimated.« less

II. Species sensitivity distributions based on biomarkers and whole organism responses for integrated impact and risk assessment criteria.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M; Smit, Mathijs G D

2017-06-01

The aim of this paper is to bridge gaps between biomarker and whole organism responses related to oil based offshore discharges. These biomarker bridges will facilitate acceptance criteria for biomarker data linked to environmental risk assessment and translate biomarker results to higher order effects. Biomarker based species sensitivity distributions (SSD biomarkers ) have been constructed for relevant groups of biomarkers based on laboratory data from oil exposures. SSD curves express the fraction of species responding to different types of biomarkers. They have been connected to SSDs for whole organism responses (WORs) constructed in order to relate the SSD biomarkers to animal fitness parameters that are commonly used in environmental risk assessment. The resulting SSD curves show that biomarkers and WORs can be linked through their potentially affected fraction of species (PAF) distributions, enhancing the capability to monitor field parameters with better correlation to impact and risk assessment criteria and providing improved chemical/biological integration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Benchmarking To Strengthen the Assessment of Persistence.

PubMed

McLachlan, Michael S; Zou, Hongyan; Gouin, Todd

2017-01-03

Chemical persistence is a key property for assessing chemical risk and chemical hazard. Current methods for evaluating persistence are based on laboratory tests. The relationship between the laboratory based estimates and persistence in the environment is often unclear, in which case the current methods for evaluating persistence can be questioned. Chemical benchmarking opens new possibilities to measure persistence in the field. In this paper we explore how the benchmarking approach can be applied in both the laboratory and the field to deepen our understanding of chemical persistence in the environment and create a firmer scientific basis for laboratory to field extrapolation of persistence test results.

Decision making in child protective services: a risky business?

PubMed

Camasso, Michael J; Jagannathan, Radha

2013-09-01

Child Protective Services (CPS) in the United States has received a torrent of criticism from politicians, the media, child advocate groups, and the general public for a perceived propensity to make decisions that are detrimental to children and families. This perception has resulted in numerous lawsuits and court takeovers of CPS in 35 states, and calls for profound restructuring in other states. A widely prescribed remedy for decision errors and faulty judgments is an improvement of risk assessment strategies that enhance hazard evaluation through an improved understanding of threat potentials and exposure likelihoods. We examine the reliability and validity problems that continue to plague current CPS risk assessment and discuss actions that can be taken in the field, including the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve technology to improve the predictive validity of risk assessment strategies. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Why transition risk to psychosis is not declining at the OASIS ultra high risk service: The hidden role of stable pretest risk enrichment.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, P; Palombini, E; Davies, C; Oliver, D; Bonoldi, I; Ramella-Cravaro, V; McGuire, P

2018-02-01

The reason for declining risk to psychosis across individuals assessed and meeting Ultra High Risk (UHR) criteria is still unclear. No studies have investigated the potential substantial role of the underlying risk enrichment across all the individuals undergoing an UHR assessment. Cohort study including all non-psychotic subjects who were assessed on suspicion of psychosis risk by the OASIS UHR service in the period 2001 to 2015. Posttest (after UHR assessment) and pretest risk (before UHR assessment) of psychosis were stratified and compared across three time periods (2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015) with Cox analysis and modulating factors were investigated. The posttest risk of psychosis at the OASIS service has increased from the initial pilot years of the service (2001-2005) and then stabilised and not declined over the following decade (2006-2010 and 2011-2015). This was paralleled by a similar course of pretest risk for psychosis. Stability of pretest risk for psychosis over the past decade was associated with a lack of change in ethnicity and to counterweighting changes in the type of referral sources over different time periods. The time course of transition risk to psychosis in UHR services is strictly associated with the time course of pretest risk enrichment. If the latter remains stable over time, as for the OASIS service, no declining transition risk is observed over the most recent years. Pretest risk enrichment is determined by recruitment and sampling strategies. This study confirms the need to control these factors in the UHR field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Industrial machine systems risk assessment: a critical review of concepts and methods.

PubMed

Etherton, John R

2007-02-01

Reducing the risk of work-related death and injury to machine operators and maintenance personnel poses a continuing occupational safety challenge. The risk of injury from machinery in U.S. workplaces is high. Between 1992 and 2001, there were, on average, 520 fatalities per year involving machines and, on average, 3.8 cases per 10,000 workers of nonfatal caught-in-running-machine injuries involving lost workdays. A U.S. task group recently developed a technical reference guideline, ANSI B11 TR3, "A Guide to Estimate, Evaluate, & Reduce Risks Associated with Machine Tools," that is intended to bring machine tool risk assessment practice in the United States up to or above the level now required by the international standard, ISO 14121. The ANSI guideline emphasizes identifying tasks and hazards not previously considered, particularly those associated with maintenance; and it further emphasizes teamwork among line workers, engineers, and safety professionals. The value of this critical review of concepts and methods resides in (1) its linking current risk theory to machine system risk assessment and (2) its exploration of how various risk estimation tools translate into risk-informed decisions on industrial machine system design and use. The review was undertaken to set the stage for a field evaluation study on machine risk assessment among users of the ANSI B11 TR3 method.

Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

PubMed Central

Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

1983-01-01

Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

Neuroimaging supports behavioral personality assessment: Overlapping activations during reflective and impulsive risk taking.

PubMed

Pletzer, Belinda; M Ortner, Tuulia

2016-09-01

Personality assessment has been challenged by the fact that different assessment methods (implicit measures, behavioral measures and explicit rating scales) show little or no convergence in behavioral studies. In this neuroimaging study we address for the first time, whether different assessment methods rely on separate or overlapping neuronal systems. Fifty nine healthy adult participants completed two objective personality tests of risk propensity: the more implicit Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) and the more explicit Game of Dice Task (GDT). Significant differences in activation, as well as connectivity patterns between both tasks were observed. In both tasks, risky decisions yielded significantly stronger activations than safe decisions in the bilateral caudate, as well as the bilateral Insula. The finding of overlapping brain areas validates different assessment methods, despite their behavioral non-convergence. This suggests that neuroimaging can be an important tool of validation in the field of personality assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Buildings vs. ballistics: Quantifying the vulnerability of buildings to volcanic ballistic impacts using field studies and pneumatic cannon experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, G. T.; Kennedy, B. M.; Wilson, T. M.; Fitzgerald, R. H.; Tsunematsu, K.; Teissier, A.

2017-09-01

Recent casualties in volcanic eruptions due to trauma from blocks and bombs necessitate more rigorous, ballistic specific risk assessment. Quantitative assessments are limited by a lack of experimental and field data on the vulnerability of buildings to ballistic hazards. An improved, quantitative understanding of building vulnerability to ballistic impacts is required for informing appropriate life safety actions and other risk reduction strategies. We assessed ballistic impacts to buildings from eruptions at Usu Volcano and Mt. Ontake in Japan and compiled available impact data from eruptions elsewhere to identify common damage patterns from ballistic impacts to buildings. We additionally completed a series of cannon experiments which simulate ballistic block impacts to building claddings to investigate their performance over a range of ballistic projectile velocities, masses and energies. Our experiments provide new insights by quantifying (1) the hazard associated with post-impact shrapnel from building and rock fragments; (2) the effect of impact obliquity on damage; and (3) the additional impact resistance buildings possess when claddings are struck in areas directly supported by framing components. This was not well identified in previous work which may have underestimated building vulnerability to ballistic hazards. To improve assessment of building vulnerability to ballistics, we use our experimental and field data to develop quantitative vulnerability models known as fragility functions. Our fragility functions and field studies show that although unreinforced buildings are highly vulnerable to large ballistics (> 20 cm diameter), they can still provide shelter, preventing death during eruptions.

Extrapolating non-target risk of Bt crops from laboratory to field.

PubMed

Duan, Jian J; Lundgren, Jonathan G; Naranjo, Steve; Marvier, Michelle

2010-02-23

The tiered approach to assessing ecological risk of insect-resistant transgenic crops assumes that lower tier laboratory studies, which expose surrogate non-target organisms to high doses of insecticidal proteins, can detect harmful effects that might be manifested in the field. To test this assumption, we performed meta-analyses comparing results for non-target invertebrates exposed to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry proteins in laboratory studies with results derived from independent field studies examining effects on the abundance of non-target invertebrates. For Lepidopteran-active Cry proteins, laboratory studies correctly predicted the reduced field abundance of non-target Lepidoptera. However, laboratory studies incorporating tri-trophic interactions of Bt plants, herbivores and parasitoids were better correlated with the decreased field abundance of parasitoids than were direct-exposure assays. For predators, laboratory tri-trophic studies predicted reduced abundances that were not realized in field studies and thus overestimated ecological risk. Exposure to Coleopteran-active Cry proteins did not significantly reduce the laboratory survival or field abundance of any functional group examined. Our findings support the assumption that laboratory studies of transgenic insecticidal crops show effects that are either consistent with, or more conservative than, those found in field studies, with the important caveat that laboratory studies should explore all ecologically relevant routes of exposure.

Using existing data to predict and quantify the risks of GM forage to a population of a non-target invertebrate species: a New Zealand case study.

PubMed

O'Callaghan, Maureen; Soboleva, Tanya K; Barratt, Barbara I P

2010-01-01

Determining the effects of genetically modified (GM) crops on non-target organisms is essential as many non-target species provide important ecological functions. However, it is simply not possible to collect field data on more than a few potential non-target species present in the receiving environment of a GM crop. While risk assessment must be rigorous, new approaches are necessary to improve the efficiency of the process. Utilisation of published information and existing data on the phenology and population dynamics of test species in the field can be combined with limited amounts of experimental biosafety data to predict possible outcomes on species persistence. This paper presents an example of an approach where data from laboratory experiments and field studies on phenology are combined using predictive modelling. Using the New Zealand native weevil species Nicaeana cervina as a case study, we could predict that oviposition rates of the weevil feeding on a GM ryegrass could be reduced by up to 30% without threat to populations of the weevil in pastoral ecosystems. In addition, an experimentally established correlation between feeding level and oviposition led to the prediction that a consistent reduction in feeding of 50% or higher indicated a significant risk to the species and could potentially lead to local extinctions. This approach to biosafety risk assessment, maximising the use of pre-existing field and laboratory data on non-target species, can make an important contribution to informed decision-making by regulatory authorities and developers of new technologies. © ISBR, EDP Sciences, 2011.

Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae): laboratory and open field trials to assess its specificity as biocontrol agent of Centaurea solstitialis (Asteraceae: Cardueae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Prospective biological control agents generally must be demonstrated to not pose risks to non-target plants. Laboratory experiments evaluating host plant specificity are the most common method of evaluating such risk; however, they are constrained by limitations of space and number of replicates, gi...

Land Cover as a Framework For Assessing the Risk of Water Pollution

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' Neill; Kenneth H. Reckhow; Timothy G. Wade; K. Bruce Jones

2000-01-01

A survey of numerous field studies shows that nitrogen and phosphorous export coefficients are significantly different across forest, agriculture, and urban land-cover types. We used simulations to estimate the land-cover composition at which there was a significant risk of nutrient loads representative of watersheds without forest cover. The results suggest that at...

Assessing the importance of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of pesticides in agriculture, their potential to be transported beyond the intended target, and their possible risk to human and environmental health has been of public concern for many years. We utilized 5 years of field data from 3 vegetable production systems to evaluate the ability of ag...

Bioaccessibility and Risk of Exposure to Metals and SVOCs in Artificial Turf Field Fill Materials and Fibers.

PubMed

Pavilonis, Brian T; Weisel, Clifford P; Buckley, Brian; Lioy, Paul J

2014-01-01

To reduce maintenance costs, municipalities and schools are starting to replace natural grass fields with a new generation synthetic turf. Unlike Astro-Turf, which was first introduced in the 1960s, synthetic field turf provides more cushioning to athletes. Part of this cushioning comes from materials like crumb rubber infill, which is manufactured from recycled tires and may contain a variety of chemicals. The goal of this study was to evaluate potential exposures from playing on artificial turf fields and associated risks to trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by examining typical artificial turf fibers (n = 8), different types of infill (n = 8), and samples from actual fields (n = 7). Three artificial biofluids were prepared, which included: lung, sweat, and digestive fluids. Artificial biofluids were hypothesized to yield a more representative estimation of dose than the levels obtained from total extraction methods. PAHs were routinely below the limit of detection across all three biofluids, precluding completion of a meaningful risk assessment. No SVOCs were identified at quantifiable levels in any extracts based on a match of their mass spectrum to compounds that are regulated in soil. The metals were measurable but at concentrations for which human health risk was estimated to be low. The study demonstrated that for the products and fields we tested, exposure to infill and artificial turf was generally considered de minimus, with the possible exception of lead for some fields and materials. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Residential magnetic fields predicted from wiring configurations: II. Relationships To childhood leukemia.

PubMed

Thomas, D C; Bowman, J D; Jiang, L; Jiang, F; Peters, J M

1999-10-01

Case-control data on childhood leukemia in Los Angeles County were reanalyzed with residential magnetic fields predicted from the wiring configurations of nearby transmission and distribution lines. As described in a companion paper, the 24-h means of the magnetic field's magnitude in subjects' homes were predicted by a physically based regression model that had been fitted to 24-h measurements and wiring data. In addition, magnetic field exposures were adjusted for the most likely form of exposure assessment errors: classic errors for the 24-h measurements and Berkson errors for the predictions from wire configurations. Although the measured fields had no association with childhood leukemia (P for trend=.88), the risks were significant for predicted magnetic fields above 1.25 mG (odds ratio=2.00, 95% confidence interval=1.03-3.89), and a significant dose-response was seen (P for trend=.02). When exposures were determined by a combination of predictions and measurements that corrects for errors, the odds ratio (odd ratio=2.19, 95% confidence interval=1.12-4.31) and the trend (p =.007) showed somewhat greater significance. These findings support the hypothesis that magnetic fields from electrical lines are causally related to childhood leukemia but that this association has been inconsistent among epidemiologic studies due to different types of exposure assessment error. In these data, the leukemia risks from a child's residential magnetic field exposure appears to be better assessed by wire configurations than by 24-h area measurements. However, the predicted fields only partially account for the effect of the Wertheimer-Leeper wire code in a multivariate analysis and do not completely explain why these wire codes have been so often associated with childhood leukemia. The most plausible explanation for our findings is that the causal factor is another magnetic field exposure metric correlated to both wire code and the field's time-averaged magnitude. Copyright 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

78 FR 58514 - Availability of an Environmental Assessment for Field Testing of a DNA Immunostimulant

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-24

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2013-0077... field testing this product could have on the quality of the human environment. Based on the risk... testing this product will not have a significant impact on the quality of the human environment, and that...

Assessment of the Georgia P Index on-farm at the field scale for grassland management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to better manage agricultural phosphorus (P), most states in the USA have adopted a “P indexing” approach which ranks fields according to potential losses of P. In Georgia, the Georgia P Index was developed to estimate the risk of bioavailable P loss from agricultural land to surface water...

Field studies in pesticide registration: questioning the answers.

PubMed

Montforts, Mark H M M; de Jong, Frank M W

2007-01-01

The principal conclusion of a workshop in October 2005 at RIVM (Bilthoven, The Netherlands) on the assessment of field studies with pesticides for authorization is that the lack of a definition of acceptability of effects is recognized as a problem by all stakeholders: Industry, risk assessors, and regulators. Because of this lack of definition in the legislation, it is unclear what critical effect values should be assessed in field studies. Despite the extensive documentation on field study performance, the decision making is not based on justifiable scientific opinions or publicly shared values but on technical limitations of the test design instead. In the workshop, research was identified that should result in a scientific basis for value judgments applied in decision making.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and the risk of overweight in youth: the Healthy Hearts Longitudinal Study of Cardiometabolic Health.

PubMed

McGavock, Jonathan M; Torrance, Brian D; McGuire, K Ashlee; Wozny, Paul D; Lewanczuk, Richard Z

2009-09-01

The primary objective of this longitudinal study was to determine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and the risk of overweight status in youth. To accomplish this aim we analyzed data from annual school-based surveys of cardiorespiratory fitness and anthropometry conducted between 2004 and 2006. The first analysis was performed on a cohort of 902 youth aged 6-15 years followed for 12 months to assess the association between cardiorespiratory fitness levels determined from a graded maximal field test and the risk of becoming overweight. The second analysis was conducted on a cohort of 222 youth followed for 2 years to assess the continuous association between annual changes fitness and weight gain. Children with low cardiorespiratory fitness were characterized by higher waist circumference and disproportionate weight gain over the 12-month follow-up period (P < 0.05). Within the entire cohort, the 12-month risk of overweight classification was 3.5-fold (95% confidence = 2.0-6.0, P < 0.001) higher in youth with low cardiorespiratory fitness, relative to fit peers. A time series mixed effects regression model revealed that reductions in cardiorespiratory fitness were significantly and independently associated with increasing BMI (r = -0.18, P < 0.05) in youth. Accordingly, low cardiorespiratory fitness and reductions in fitness over time are significantly associated with weight gain and the risk of overweight in children 6-15 years old. An assessment of cardiorespiratory fitness using a common field test may prove useful for the identification of youth at risk of overweight and serve as a potential target for obesity prevention.

PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngblood, Robert; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Siu, Nathan

2010-01-01

In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.

In Sickness but Not in Wealth: Field Evidence on Patients' Risk Preferences in Financial and Health Domains.

PubMed

Galizzi, Matteo M; Miraldo, Marisa; Stavropoulou, Charitini

2016-05-01

We present results from a hypothetical framed field experiment assessing whether risk preferences significantly differ across the health and financial domains when they are elicited through the same multiple price list paired-lottery method. We consider a sample of 300 patients attending outpatient clinics in a university hospital in Athens during the Greek financial crisis. Risk preferences in finance were elicited using paired-lottery questions with hypothetical payments. The questions were adapted to the health domain by framing the lotteries as risky treatments in hypothetical health care scenarios. Using maximum likelihood methods, we estimated the degree of risk aversion, allowing for the estimates to be dependent on domain and individual characteristics. The subjects in our sample, who were exposed to both health and financial distress, tended to be less risk averse in the financial domain than in the health domain. © The Author(s) 2016.

DEVELOPMENT OF STRUCTURE ACTIVITY RELATIONSHIPS FOR ASSESSING ECOLOGICAL RISKS

EPA Science Inventory

In the field of environmental toxicology, structure activity relationships (SARs) have developed as scientifically-credible tools for predicting the effects of chemicals when little or no empirical data are available.

Radiation therapy for stage IIA and IIB testicular seminoma: peripheral dose calculations and risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theocharris; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

2015-03-01

This study was conducted to calculate the peripheral dose to critical structures and assess the radiation risks from modern radiotherapy for stage IIA/IIB testicular seminoma. A Monte Carlo code was used for treatment simulation on a computational phantom representing an average adult. The initial treatment phase involved anteroposterior and posteroanaterior modified dog-leg fields exposing para-aortic and ipsilateral iliac lymph nodes followed by a cone-down phase for nodal mass irradiation. Peripheral doses were calculated using different modified dog-leg field dimensions and an extended conventional dog-leg portal. The risk models of the BEIR-VII report and ICRP-103 were combined with dosimetric calculations to estimate the probability of developing stochastic effects. Radiotherapy for stage IIA seminoma with a target dose of 30 Gy resulted in a range of 23.0-603.7 mGy to non-targeted peripheral tissues and organs. The corresponding range for treatment of stage IIB disease to a cumulative dose of 36 Gy was 24.2-633.9 mGy. A dose variation of less than 13% was found by altering the field dimensions. Radiotherapy with the conventional instead of the modern modified dog-leg field increased the peripheral dose up to 8.2 times. The calculated heart doses of 589.0-632.9 mGy may increase the risk for developing cardiovascular diseases whereas the testicular dose of more than 231.9 mGy may lead to a temporary infertility. The probability of birth abnormalities in the offspring of cancer survivors was below 0.13% which is much lower than the spontaneous mutation rate. Abdominoplevic irradiation may increase the lifetime intrinsic risk for the induction of secondary malignancies by 0.6-3.9% depending upon the site of interest, patient’s age and tumor dose. Radiotherapy for stage IIA/IIB seminoma with restricted fields and low doses is associated with an increased morbidity. These data may allow the definition of a risk-adapted follow-up scheme for long-term testicular cancer survivors.

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie; Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott

2008-01-01

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation.

PubMed

Fabiano, B; Currò, F; Palazzi, E; Pastorino, R

2002-07-01

The risk from dangerous goods transport by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing an original site-oriented framework of general applicability at local level. A realistic evaluation of the frequency must take into account on one side inherent factors (e.g. tunnels, rail bridges, bend radii, slope, characteristics of neighborhood, etc.) on the other side factors correlated to the traffic conditions (e.g. dangerous goods trucks, etc.). Field data were collected on the selected highway, by systematic investigation, providing input data for a database reporting tendencies and intrinsic parameter/site-oriented statistics. The developed technique was applied to a pilot area, considering both the individual risk and societal risk and making reference to flammable and explosive scenarios. In this way, a risk assessment, sensitive to route features and population exposed, is proposed, so that the overall uncertainties in risk analysis can be lowered.

AMEG: the new SETAC advisory group on aquatic macrophyte ecotoxicology

PubMed Central

Davies, Jo; Dobbs, Michael; Ebke, Peter; Hanson, Mark; Hommen, Udo; Knauer, Katja; Loutseti, Stefania; Maltby, Lorraine; Mohr, Silvia; Poovey, Angela; Poulsen, Véronique

2010-01-01

Introduction and background Primary producers play critical structural and functional roles in aquatic ecosystems; therefore, it is imperative that the potential risks of toxicants to aquatic plants are adequately assessed in the risk assessment of chemicals. The standard required macrophyte test species is the floating (non-sediment-rooted) duckweed Lemna spp. This macrophyte species might not be representative of all floating, rooted, emergent, and submerged macrophyte species because of differences in the duration and mode of exposure; sensitivity to the specific toxic mode of action of the chemical; and species-specific traits (e.g., duckweed's very short generation time). Discussion and perspectives These topics were addressed during the workshop entitled “Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides” (AMRAP) where a risk assessment scheme for aquatic macrophytes was proposed. Four working groups evolved from this workshop and were charged with the task of developing Tier 1 and higher-tier aquatic macrophyte risk assessment procedures. Subsequently, a SETAC Advisory Group, the Macrophyte Ecotoxicology Group (AMEG) was formed as an umbrella organization for various macrophyte working groups. The purpose of AMEG is to provide scientifically based guidance in all aspects of aquatic macrophyte testing in the laboratory and field, including prospective as well as retrospective risk assessments for chemicals. As AMEG expands, it will begin to address new topics including bioremediation and sustainable management of aquatic macrophytes in the context of ecosystem services. PMID:20191396

AMEG: the new SETAC advisory group on aquatic macrophyte ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Arts, Gertie; Davies, Jo; Dobbs, Michael; Ebke, Peter; Hanson, Mark; Hommen, Udo; Knauer, Katja; Loutseti, Stefania; Maltby, Lorraine; Mohr, Silvia; Poovey, Angela; Poulsen, Véronique

2010-05-01

Primary producers play critical structural and functional roles in aquatic ecosystems; therefore, it is imperative that the potential risks of toxicants to aquatic plants are adequately assessed in the risk assessment of chemicals. The standard required macrophyte test species is the floating (non-sediment-rooted) duckweed Lemna spp. This macrophyte species might not be representative of all floating, rooted, emergent, and submerged macrophyte species because of differences in the duration and mode of exposure; sensitivity to the specific toxic mode of action of the chemical; and species-specific traits (e.g., duckweed's very short generation time). These topics were addressed during the workshop entitled "Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides" (AMRAP) where a risk assessment scheme for aquatic macrophytes was proposed. Four working groups evolved from this workshop and were charged with the task of developing Tier 1 and higher-tier aquatic macrophyte risk assessment procedures. Subsequently, a SETAC Advisory Group, the Macrophyte Ecotoxicology Group (AMEG) was formed as an umbrella organization for various macrophyte working groups. The purpose of AMEG is to provide scientifically based guidance in all aspects of aquatic macrophyte testing in the laboratory and field, including prospective as well as retrospective risk assessments for chemicals. As AMEG expands, it will begin to address new topics including bioremediation and sustainable management of aquatic macrophytes in the context of ecosystem services.

Exploring general practitioners’ views and experiences on suicide risk assessment and management of young people in primary care: a qualitative study in the UK

PubMed Central

Michail, Maria; Tait, Lynda

2016-01-01

Objective To explore general practitioner (GP) views and experiences of assessing, communicating with and managing suicidal young people with the aim of co-producing an educational intervention on youth suicide prevention tailored to GPs’ perceived needs. Design Qualitative focus group study using framework analysis. Setting 5 inner city general practices in Nottingham. Participants 28 GPs took part (9 males) with mean age of 37 years. The median number of years of professional experience was 13. Participants were recruited through convenience sampling based on accessibility, interest in the study and willingness to participate. Results 3 themes emerged from the data in relation to GP's attitudes and beliefs towards suicide; the challenges GPs experience when it comes to the assessment and management of suicide risk in young people; and optimal ways of addressing some of these challenges through the provision of specialist education and training targeting GPs’ knowledge and clinical skills in this field. Conclusions The findings revealed wide variations in the understanding and operationalisation of risk among GPs, which has subsequent implications to how GPs perceive risk should be assessed. GP education on suicide risk assessment and management in youth should promote a holistic understanding and assessment of risk and its individual, social and contextual influences. PMID:26758263

Ecological risk assessment for Mather Air Force Base, California: Phase 1, screening assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers-Schoene, L.; Fischer, N.T.; Rabe, J.J.

Mather Air Force Base (AFB) is among the numerous facilities scheduled for closure under the US Air Force (USAF) Installation Restoration Program (IRP). A component of the Mather AFB IRP is to prepare risk assessments for each of the chemically contaminated sites. Because no previous ecological risk related studies have been conducted on Mather AFB, the authors proposed a phased approach to assessing ecological risks at the base. Phase 1 consisted of baseline ecological surveys that collected data over a 12-month period. In addition, benchmark screening criteria were used in conjunction with modeling results that utilized measured concentrations of chemicalmore » analytes in abiotic samples. Phase 2 may consist of the collection of more site-specific data and toxicity testing, if warranted by the Phase 1 screening analysis. This approach was in agreement with the USAF`s ecological risk assessment guidance and met the approval of the Air Force and USEPA Region 9. The authors found the use of established and derived screening values to effectively aid in the focusing of the ecological risk assessment on those chemicals most likely to be hazardous to ecological receptors at the base. Disadvantages in the use of screening values include the uncertainties associated with the conservative assumptions inherent in the derivation of benchmark values and the difficulty in extrapolating from laboratory determined benchmark values to impacts in the field.« less

Alcohol Measures and Terms: A Perfect Storm for Chronic Confusion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glassman, Tavis Jared

2010-01-01

Members in the prevention and treatment fields continue to examine how to most effectively assess and label high volume alcohol consumption. Terms such as "binge" drinking have resulted in considerable controversy and debate. Conventionally the criteria for assessing high-risk drinking includes: five or more drinks for men and four or more drinks…

An integrated model-based approach to the risk assessment of pesticide drift from vineyards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pivato, Alberto; Barausse, Alberto; Zecchinato, Francesco; Palmeri, Luca; Raga, Roberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Cossu, Raffaello

2015-06-01

The inhalation of pesticide in air is of particular concern for people living in close contact with intensive agricultural activities. This study aims to develop an integrated modelling methodology to assess whether pesticides pose a risk to the health of people living near vineyards, and apply this methodology in the world-renowned Prosecco DOCG (Italian label for protection of origin and geographical indication of wines) region. A sample field in Bigolino di Valdobbiadene (North-Eastern Italy) was selected to perform the pesticide fate modellization and the consequent inhalation risk assessment for people living in the area. The modellization accounts for the direct pesticide loss during the treatment of vineyards and for the volatilization from soil after the end of the treatment. A fugacity model was used to assess the volatilization flux from soil. The Gaussian puff air dispersion model CALPUFF was employed to assess the airborne concentration of the emitted pesticide over the simulation domain. The subsequent risk assessment integrates the HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk (HAIR) and US-EPA guidelines. In this case study the modelled situation turned to be safe from the point of view of human health in the case of non-carcinogenic compounds, and additional improvements were suggested to further mitigate the effect of the most critical compound.

A Simple Field Guides to Identify Fire Effects on Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter

2016-04-01

Following wildfires post fire assessment personnel or teams assess immediate post-fire watershed conditions. These assessment teams must determine threats from flooding, soil erosion, and instability in a relatively short time period. Various tools and guides have been developed to assist in that process. A soil burn severity map is often the first step in the rapid assessment process. It enables BAER teams to prioritize field reviews and locate burned areas that may pose a risk to critical values within or downstream of the burned area. Five field parameters are easily determined in the field 1) remaining ground cover and characteristic, 2) ash color and depth, 3) soil structure, 4) fine roots, and 5) soil water repellency. All parameters are visual identified except water repellency which can be determined by the Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) test or Mini-Disk Infiltrometer (MDI). Often times the MDI test takes less time, is less subjective, and provides a relative infiltration rate which the WDPT test does not. The MDI test results are often put into "degree of soil water repellency" categories (strong, weak, and none). These field procedures that indicate the fire effects on the soil conditions help assessment teams consistently interpret, field validate and map soil burn severity.

Residue behavior and risk assessment of mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua under field conditions.

PubMed

Huang, Jian Xiang; Liu, Cong Yun; Lu, Da Hai; Chen, Jia Jia; Deng, Yi Cai; Wang, Fu Hua

2015-10-01

A simple and rapid method based on high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) was developed for the simultaneous determination of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr residues in chieh-qua. Field trials were designed to investigate the dissipation and terminal residue behavior of the mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua in Guangzhou and Nanning areas. Risk assessment was performed by calculating the risk quotient (RQ) values. The developed analytical method exhibited recoveries of 89.9-110.3% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 2.8-12.5% at the spiked levels of 0.01, 0.10, and 1.00 mg/kg. The limit of detection (LOD) was 0.003 mg/kg, and the limit of quantification (LOQ) was 0.01 mg/kg for both imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr. It was found that the half-lives of imidacloprid in chieh-qua under field conditions were 3.3 and 3.5 days in Guangzhou and Nanning at a dose of 180 g ai/ha, while the half-lives of chlorfenapyr were 3.3 and 2.6 days, respectively. The terminal residues of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr were from 0.01 to 0.21 mg/kg and from 0.01 to 0.46 mg/kg, respectively. Results of dietary exposure assessment showed that the RQ values were much lower than 1, indicating that the risk of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr applied in chieh-qua was negligible to human health under recommended dosage and good agricultural practices. The proposed study would provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua cultivation in China.

Real-time 3D radiation risk assessment supporting simulation of work in nuclear environments.

PubMed

Szőke, I; Louka, M N; Bryntesen, T R; Bratteli, J; Edvardsen, S T; RøEitrheim, K K; Bodor, K

2014-06-01

This paper describes the latest developments at the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in Norway, in the field of real-time 3D (three-dimensional) radiation risk assessment for the support of work simulation in nuclear environments. 3D computer simulation can greatly facilitate efficient work planning, briefing, and training of workers. It can also support communication within and between work teams, and with advisors, regulators, the media and public, at all the stages of a nuclear installation's lifecycle. Furthermore, it is also a beneficial tool for reviewing current work practices in order to identify possible gaps in procedures, as well as to support the updating of international recommendations, dissemination of experience, and education of the current and future generation of workers.IFE has been involved in research and development into the application of 3D computer simulation and virtual reality (VR) technology to support work in radiological environments in the nuclear sector since the mid 1990s. During this process, two significant software tools have been developed, the VRdose system and the Halden Planner, and a number of publications have been produced to contribute to improving the safety culture in the nuclear industry.This paper describes the radiation risk assessment techniques applied in earlier versions of the VRdose system and the Halden Planner, for visualising radiation fields and calculating dose, and presents new developments towards implementing a flexible and up-to-date dosimetric package in these 3D software tools, based on new developments in the field of radiation protection. The latest versions of these 3D tools are capable of more accurate risk estimation, permit more flexibility via a range of user choices, and are applicable to a wider range of irradiation situations than their predecessors.

Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of fine-tuned convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of FFDMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Mendel, Kayla R.; Lee, John H.; Lan, Li; Giger, Maryellen L.

2018-02-01

We evaluated the potential of deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) fine-tuned on full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images. This study included 456 clinical FFDM cases from two high-risk datasets: BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers (53 cases) and unilateral cancer patients (75 cases), and a low-risk dataset as the control group (328 cases). All FFDM images (12-bit quantization and 100 micron pixel) were acquired with a GE Senographe 2000D system and were retrospectively collected under an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant protocol. Regions of interest of 256x256 pixels were selected from the central breast region behind the nipple in the craniocaudal projection. VGG19 pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset was used to classify the images either as high-risk or as low-risk subjects. The last fully-connected layer of pre-trained VGG19 was fine-tuned on FFDM images for breast cancer risk assessment. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the task of distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk subjects. AUC values of 0.84 (SE=0.05) and 0.72 (SE=0.06) were obtained in the task of distinguishing between the BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers and low-risk women and between unilateral cancer patients and low-risk women, respectively. Deep learning with CNNs appears to be able to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from FFDMs which are relevant to the task of distinguishing between cancer risk populations, and therefore has potential to aid clinicians in assessing mammographic parenchymal patterns for cancer risk assessment.

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 7. Performance Evaluation of the 600-GPH Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU): reverse Osmosis (RO) Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

Data-for ASsessingHealthRISKS In Potential Theaters ~ of Operation forU,5. Mil-itary._orces. Jf-jr cLAss t:cAToN 9; r-.$ ’AGg UNCLASSIFIED Volume 7...Bypass, Potable-Water Disinfection,_ and Water-Quality Analysis Techniques; and Vol. 9, Data for Assessing Health Risks in Potential Theaters of Operation ...cleaning the RO elements, with objectives of improving solute rejection and reducing operating pressure. The most common method is to flush citric acid

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 5. Infectious Organisms of Military Concern Associated with Consumption: Assessment of Health Risks, and Recommendations for Establishing Related Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

predicted to develop an infection would also become ill with the disease. RISK ASSESSMENT: PARASITIC ORGANISMS Two parasites, Entamoeba histolytica and...distribution. Outbreaks tend to be explosive in nature and can occur year-round. They can infect persons of all 3ages. Both sexes are equally...bladder, uterus, or skin. 3 The infective form of Entamoeba hirtolytica is the resistant cyst. Persons are capable of spreading disease as long as

75 FR 42087 - Science Advisory Board Staff Office; Request for Nominations of Experts for the SAB Hydraulic...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-20

... regarding trace organics and environmental monitoring; statistics, particularly regarding experimental design of field studies; human health effects and risk assessment; civil and environmental engineering...

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Coast Guard Aircraft: Transfer of Fixed-Wing C-27J Aircraft Is Complex and Further Fleet Purchases Should Coincide with Study Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

C-27J to the Coast Guard. This report assesses (1) the status of the transfer and risks the Coast Guard faces in fielding the transferred aircraft...had transferred 2 of the 14 C-27J aircraft it is receiving from the Air Force to its aircraft maintenance facility, with plans to field 14 fully...Coast Guard continues to receive these aircraft in the near term, the capability and cost of the Coast Guard’s fixed-wing fleet runs the risk of being

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals

PubMed Central

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N.

2016-01-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs. PMID:26847432

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N

2015-12-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs.

Bio-accessibility and Risk of Exposure to Metals and SVOCs in Artificial Turf Field Fill Materials and Fibers

PubMed Central

Pavilonis, Brian T.; Weisel, Clifford P.; Buckley, Brian; Lioy, Paul J.

2014-01-01

To reduce maintenance costs, municipalities and schools are starting to replace natural grass fields with a new generation synthetic turf. Unlike Astro-Turf, which was first introduced in the 1960’s, synthetic field turf provides more cushioning to athletes. Part of this cushioning comes from materials like crumb rubber infill, which is manufactured from recycled tires and may contain a variety of chemicals. The goal of this study was to evaluate potential exposures from playing on artificial turf fields and associated risks to trace metals, semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by examining typical artificial turf fibers (n=8), different types of infill (n=8), and samples from actual fields (n=7). Three artificial biofluids were prepared which included: lung, sweat, and digestive fluids. Artificial biofluids were hypothesized to yield a more representative estimation of dose than the levels obtained from total extraction methods. PAHs were routinely below the limit of detection across all three biofluids precluding completion of a meaningful risk assessment. No SVOCs were identified at quantifiable levels in any extracts based on a match of their mass spectrum to compounds that are regulated in soil. The metals were measurable but at concentrations for which human health risk was estimated to be low. The study demonstrated that for the products and fields we tested, exposure to infill and artificial turf was generally considered de minimus, with the possible exception of lead for some fields and materials. PMID:23758133

Air-mediated pollen flow from genetically modified to conventional crops.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Schurr, Frank; Tackenberg, Oliver; O'Hara, Robert B

2007-03-01

Tools for estimating pollen dispersal and the resulting gene flow are necessary to assess the risk of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) to conventional fields, and to quantify the effectiveness of measures that may prevent such gene flow. A mechanistic simulation model is presented and used to simulate pollen dispersal by wind in different agricultural scenarios over realistic pollination periods. The relative importance of landscape-related variables such as isolation distance, topography, spatial configuration of the fields, GM field size and barrier, and environmental variation are examined in order to find ways to minimize gene flow and to detect possible risk factors. The simulations demonstrated a large variation in pollen dispersal and in the predicted amount of contamination between different pollination periods. This was largely due to variation in vertical wind. As this variation in wind conditions is difficult to control through management measures, it should be carefully considered when estimating the risk of gene flow from GM crops. On average, the predicted level of gene flow decreased with increasing isolation distance and with increasing depth of the conventional field, and increased with increasing GM field size. Therefore, at a national scale and over the long term these landscape properties should be accounted for when setting regulations for controlling gene flow. However, at the level of an individual field the level of gene flow may be dominated by uncontrollable variation. Due to the sensitivity of pollen dispersal to the wind, we conclude that gene flow cannot be summarized only by the mean contamination; information about the frequency of extreme events should also be considered. The modeling approach described in this paper offers a way to predict and compare pollen dispersal and gene flow in varying environmental conditions, and to assess the effectiveness of different management measures.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Fish consumption risk perception among anglers in an industrial urban area

Treesearch

Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; Lynne M. Westphal; Mario Longoni

2010-01-01

Over two summers, we conducted field interviews with anglers in the industrial Calumet Region of northwest Indiana and southeast Chicago. The data collected provide insight into how anglers assess the risks of eating the fish they catch. Some anglers practiced catch and release because of concerns about water pollution while others just did not eat fish. Those who ate...

Risk assessment for pyrrolizidine alkaloids detected in (herbal) teas and plant food supplements.

PubMed

Chen, Lu; Mulder, Patrick P J; Louisse, Jochem; Peijnenburg, Ad; Wesseling, Sebas; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

2017-06-01

Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) are plant metabolites present in some botanical preparations, with especially 1,2-unsaturated PAs being of concern because they are genotoxic carcinogens. This study presents an overview of tumour data on PAs and points of departure (PODs) derived from them, corroborating that the BMDL 10 for lasiocarpine represents a conservative POD for risk assessment. A risk assessment using this BMDL 10 and mean levels of PAs reported in literature for (herbal) teas, indicates that consumption of one cup of tea a day would result in MOE values lower than 10 000 for several types of (herbal) teas, indicating a priority for risk management for these products A refined risk assessment using interim relative potency (REP) factors showed that based on the mean PA levels, 7(54%) of 13 types of (herbal) teas and 1 (14%) of 7 types of plant food supplements (PFS) resulted in MOE values lower than 10 000, indicating a priority for risk management also for these products in particular. This includes both preparations containing PA-producing and non-PA-producing plants. Our study provides insight in the current state-of-the art and limitations in the risk assessment of PA-containing food products, especially (herbal) teas and PFS, indicating that PAs in food presents a field of interest for current and future risk management. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volumetric PIV in Patient-Specific Cerebral Aneurysm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brindise, Melissa; Dickerhoff, Ben; Saloner, David; Rayz, Vitaliy; Vlachos, Pavlos

2016-11-01

Cerebral aneurysms impose a unique challenge in which neurosurgeons must assess and decide between the risk of rupture and risk of treatment for each patient. Risk of rupture is often difficult to determine and most commonly assessed using geometric data including the size and shape of the aneurysm and parent vessel. Hemodynamics is thought to play a major role in the growth and rupture of a cerebral aneurysm, but its specific influence is largely unknown due to the inability of in vivo modalities to characterize detailed flow fields and limited in vitro studies. In this work, we use a patient-specific basilar tip aneurysm model and volumetric particle image velocimetry (PIV). In vivo, 4-D PC-MRI measurements were obtained for this aneurysm and the extracted pulsatile waveform was used for the in vitro study. Clinically relevant metrics including wall shear stress (WSS), oscillatory shear index (OSI), relative residence time (RRT), 3-D pressure contours, and pressure wave speed were subsequently computed. This is the first study to investigate in vitro 3-D pressure fields within a cerebral aneurysm. The results of this study demonstrate how these metrics influence the biomechanics of the aneurysm and ultimately their affect on the risk of rupture.

Concise Review: Workshop Review: Understanding and Assessing the Risks of Stem Cell-Based Therapies

PubMed Central

Heslop, James A.; Hammond, Thomas G.; Santeramo, Ilaria; Tort Piella, Agnès; Hopp, Isabel; Zhou, Jing; Baty, Roua; Graziano, Enrique I.; Proto Marco, Bernabé; Caron, Alexis; Sköld, Patrik; Andrews, Peter W.; Baxter, Melissa A.; Hay, David C.; Hamdam, Junnat; Sharpe, Michaela E.; Patel, Sara; Jones, David R.; Reinhardt, Jens; Danen, Erik H.J.; Ben-David, Uri; Stacey, Glyn; Björquist, Petter; Piner, Jacqueline; Mills, John; Rowe, Cliff; Pellegrini, Giovanni; Sethu, Swaminathan; Antoine, Daniel J.; Cross, Michael J.; Murray, Patricia; Williams, Dominic P.; Kitteringham, Neil R.; Park, B. Kevin

2015-01-01

The field of stem cell therapeutics is moving ever closer to widespread application in the clinic. However, despite the undoubted potential held by these therapies, the balance between risk and benefit remains difficult to predict. As in any new field, a lack of previous application in man and gaps in the underlying science mean that regulators and investigators continue to look for a balance between minimizing potential risk and ensuring therapies are not needlessly kept from patients. Here, we attempt to identify the important safety issues, assessing the current advances in scientific knowledge and how they may translate to clinical therapeutic strategies in the identification and management of these risks. We also investigate the tools and techniques currently available to researchers during preclinical and clinical development of stem cell products, their utility and limitations, and how these tools may be strategically used in the development of these therapies. We conclude that ensuring safety through cutting-edge science and robust assays, coupled with regular and open discussions between regulators and academic/industrial investigators, is likely to prove the most fruitful route to ensuring the safest possible development of new products. PMID:25722427

Risk Measuremant and Fair Valuation Assessment in the Life Insurance Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, Mariarosaria; D'Amato, Valeria; Lorenzo, Emilia di; Sibillo, Marilena

New solvency requirements are coming into the insurance business management, in particular through Pillar 2 of Solvency 2. The guidelines lead towards an increasing importance ascribed to the particular risk profile of the single company. Regarding the mathematical provision, this statement reveals to be fundamental, being in the aim of the correct management to keep not more than the sufficient capital amount as solvency capital, and this statement strongly depends on the company risk profile.

Accuracy of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) to detect developmental delay of gross motor skills in preterm infants: a systematic review.

PubMed

de Albuquerque, Plínio Luna; Lemos, Andrea; Guerra, Miriam Queiroz de Farias; Eickmann, Sophie Helena

2015-02-01

To assess, through a systematic review, the ability of Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) to diagnose delayed motor development in preterm infants. Systematic searches identified five studies meeting inclusion criteria. These studies were evaluated in terms of: participants' characteristics, main results and risk of bias. The risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies--second edition (QUADAS-2). All five studies included a high risk of bias in at least one of the assessed fields. The most frequent biases included were presented in patient selection and lost follow up. All studies used the Pearson correlation coefficient to assess the diagnostic capability of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale. None of the assessed studies used psychometric measures to analyze the data. Given the evidence, the research supporting the ability of Alberta Infant Motor Scale to diagnose delayed motor development in preterm infants presents limitations. Further studies are suggested in order to avoid the above-mentioned biases to assess the Alberta Infant Motor Scale accuracy in preterm babies.

A Spanish-Language Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes: Translation Process and Assessment of Psychometric Properties.

PubMed

Joiner, Kevin L; Sternberg, Rosa Maria; Kennedy, Christine; Chen, Jyu-Lin; Fukuoka, Yoshimi; Janson, Susan L

2016-12-01

Create a Spanish-language version of the Risk Perception Survey for Developing Diabetes (RPS-DD) and assess psychometric properties. The Spanish-language version was created through translation, harmonization, and presentation to the tool's original author. It was field tested in a foreignborn Latino sample and properties evaluated in principal components analysis. Personal Control, Optimistic Bias, and Worry multi-item Likert subscale responses did not cluster together. A clean solution was obtained after removing two Personal Control subscale items. Neither the Personal Disease Risk scale nor the Environmental Health Risk scale responses loaded onto single factors. Reliabilities ranged from .54 to .88. Test of knowledge performance varied by item. This study contributes to evidence of validation of a Spanish-language RPS-DD in foreign-born Latinos.

Risk Assessment and Geography Teachers: A Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parry, Gareth; Clarke, Linda

2004-01-01

Recently the issue of health and safety procedures on field trips and school visits has come to the fore, as a result of a series of tragedies involving the deaths of pupils. A review of some of the recent court cases and inquests involving the victims of field trips was undertaken. This indicated that schools and teachers are failing to implement…

Predictors of At-Risk Intoxication in a University Field Setting: Social Anxiety, Demographics, and Intentions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Ryan C.; Bowdring, Molly A.; Geller, E. Scott

2015-01-01

Objective: The determinants of alcohol consumption among university students were investigated in a downtown field setting with blood alcohol content (BAC) as the dependent variable. Participants: In total, 521 participants completed a brief survey and had their BAC assessed during April 2013. Methods: Between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am, teams of…

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several drawbacks reported in traditional approaches for the derived flood frequency analysis and therefore is recommended for large scale flood risk case studies.

Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis: Organ equivalent dose to partially in-field structures and second cancer risk estimates on the basis of a mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazonakis, Michalis, E-mail: mazonak@med.uoc.gr; Damilakis, John; Varveris, Charalambos

Purpose: The aim of the current study was to (a) calculate the organ equivalent dose (OED) and (b) estimate the associated second cancer risk to partially in-field critical structures from adjuvant radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis on the basis of three different nonlinear risk models. Methods: Three-dimensional plans were created for twelve patients who underwent a treatment planning computed tomography of the abdomen. The plans for irradiation of seminoma consisted of para-aortic anteroposterior and posteroanterior fields giving 20 Gy to the target site with 6 MV photons. The OED of stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidneys, thatmore » were partially included in the treatment volume, was calculated using differential dose–volume histograms. The mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau models were employed for these calculations provided that organ-specific parameters were available for the subsequent assessment of the excess absolute risk (EAR) for second cancer development. The estimated organ-specific lifetime risks were compared with the respective nominal intrinsic probabilities for cancer induction. Results: The mean OED, which was calculated from the patients’ treatment plans, varied from 0.54 to 6.61 Gy by the partially in-field organ of interest and the model used for dosimetric calculations. The difference between the OED of liver derived from the mechanistic model with those from the bell-shaped and plateau models was less than 1.8%. An even smaller deviation of 1.0% was observed for colon. For the rest organs of interest, the differences between the OED values obtained by the examined models varied from 8.6% to 50.0%. The EAR for stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidney cancer induction at an age of 70 yr because of treatment of a typical 39-yr-old individual was up to 4.24, 11.39, 0.91, 3.04, and 0.14 per 10 000 persons-yr, respectively. Patient’s irradiation was found to elevate the lifetime intrinsic risks by 8.3%–63.0% depending upon the organ of interest and the model employed for risk analysis. Conclusions: Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis may result in an excess risk for the appearance of secondary malignancies in partially in-field organs. The organ- and model-dependent second cancer risk assessments of this study may be of value for patient counseling and follow-up.« less

Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority.

PubMed

Rortais, Agnès; Arnold, Gérard; Dorne, Jean-Lou; More, Simon J; Sperandio, Giorgio; Streissl, Franz; Szentes, Csaba; Verdonck, Frank

2017-06-01

Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In conclusion, EFSA calls for collaborative action at the EU level to establish a common and open access database to serve multiple purposes and different stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

PubMed

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the "classical" risk assessment approach with the model-based approach. These comparisons showed that TK and TK-TD models can bring more realism to the risk assessment through the possibility to study realistic exposure scenarios and to simulate relevant mechanisms of effects (including delayed toxicity and recovery). Noticeably, using TK-TD models is currently the most relevant way to directly connect realistic exposure patterns to effects. We conclude with recommendations on how to properly use TK and TK-TD model in acute risk assessment for vertebrates. © 2015 SETAC.

Open release of male mosquitoes infected with a wolbachia biopesticide: field performance and infection containment.

PubMed

O'Connor, Linda; Plichart, Catherine; Sang, Ayo Cheong; Brelsfoard, Corey L; Bossin, Hervé C; Dobson, Stephen L

2012-01-01

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a globally significant disease, with 1.3 billion persons in 83 countries at risk. A coordinated effort of administering annual macrofilaricidal prophylactics to the entire at-risk population has succeeded in impacting and eliminating LF transmission in multiple regions. However, some areas in the South Pacific are predicted to persist as transmission sites, due in part to the biology of the mosquito vector, which has led to a call for additional tools to augment drug treatments. Autocidal strategies against mosquitoes are resurging in the effort against invasive mosquitoes and vector borne disease, with examples that include field trials of genetically modified mosquitoes and Wolbachia population replacement. However, critical questions must be addressed in anticipation of full field trials, including assessments of field competitiveness of transfected males and the risk of unintended population replacement. We report the outcome of field experiments testing a strategy that employs Wolbachia as a biopesticide. The strategy is based upon Wolbachia-induced conditional sterility, known as cytoplasmic incompatibility, and the repeated release of incompatible males to suppress a population. A criticism of the Wolbachia biopesticide approach is that unintended female release or horizontal Wolbachia transmission can result in population replacement instead of suppression. We present the outcome of laboratory and field experiments assessing the competitiveness of transfected males and their ability to transmit Wolbachia via horizontal transmission. The results demonstrate that Wolbachia-transfected Aedes polynesiensis males are competitive under field conditions during a thirty-week open release period, as indicated by mark, release, recapture and brood-hatch failure among females at the release site. Experiments demonstrate the males to be 'dead end hosts' for Wolbachia and that methods were adequate to prevent population replacement at the field site. The findings encourage the continued development and extension of a Wolbachia autocidal approach to additional medically important mosquito species.

Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach (CARMINA).

PubMed

Tricarico, Pierfrancesco; Tardivo, Stefano; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Moretti, Francesca; Poletti, Piera; Fiore, Alberto; Monturano, Massimo; Mura, Ida; Privitera, Gaetano; Brusaferro, Silvio

2016-08-08

Purpose - The European Union recommendations for patient safety calls for shared clinical risk management (CRM) safety standards able to guide organizations in CRM implementation. The purpose of this paper is to develop a self-evaluation tool to measure healthcare organization performance on CRM and guide improvements over time. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-step approach was implemented including: a systematic literature review; consensus meetings with an expert panel from eight Italian leader organizations to get to an agreement on the first version; field testing to test instrument feasibility and flexibility; Delphi strategy with a second expert panel for content validation and balanced scoring system development. Findings - The self-assessment tool - Clinical Assessment of Risk Management: an INtegrated Approach includes seven areas (governance, communication, knowledge and skills, safe environment, care processes, adverse event management, learning from experience) and 52 standards. Each standard is evaluated according to four performance levels: minimum; monitoring; outcomes; and improvement actions, which resulted in a feasible, flexible and valid instrument to be used throughout different organizations. Practical implications - This tool allows practitioners to assess their CRM activities compared to minimum levels, monitor performance, benchmarking with other institutions and spreading results to different stakeholders. Originality/value - The multi-step approach allowed us to identify core minimum CRM levels in a field where no consensus has been reached. Most standards may be easily adopted in other countries.

Medical technology at home: safety-related items in technical documentation.

PubMed

Hilbers, Ellen S M; de Vries, Claudette G J C A; Geertsma, Robert E

2013-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the technical documentation of manufacturers on issues of safe use of their device in a home setting. Three categories of equipment were selected: infusion pumps, ventilators, and dialysis systems. Risk analyses, instructions for use, labels, and post market surveillance procedures were requested from manufacturers. Additionally, they were asked to fill out a questionnaire on collection of field experience, on incidents, and training activities. Specific risks of device operation by lay users in a home setting were incompletely addressed in the risk analyses. A substantial number of user manuals were designed for professionals, rather than for patients or lay carers. Risk analyses and user information often showed incomplete coherence. Post market surveillance was mainly based on passive collection of field experiences. Manufacturers of infusion pumps, ventilators, and dialysis systems pay insufficient attention to the specific risks of use by lay persons in home settings. It is expected that this conclusion is also applicable for other medical equipment for treatment at home. Manufacturers of medical equipment for home use should pay more attention to use errors, lay use and home-specific risks in design, risk analysis, and user information. Field experiences should be collected more actively. Coherence between risk analysis and user information should be improved. Notified bodies should address these aspects in their assessment. User manuals issued by institutions supervising a specific home therapy should be drawn up in consultation with the manufacturer.

Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

2014-12-01

Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of information about the tail risks.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bargar, Timothy A.

2012-01-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed.

The Pollution Hazard Assessment System Version 20: Documentation and Users Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-15

block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-ROUP Risk Assessment BASIC -- Public Health Baseline Assessments Environmental Effects Su r und 19. ABSTRACT (Continue...PHAS20 health - effects related concepts and operational instructions. Appendix A presents a glossary of terms and data identifications. Appendix B...Computerization) in the Environmental Quality Research Branch of the Health Effects Research Division. The author acknowledges the support of Jesse J. Barkley, Jr

An overview on the emerging area of identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps.

PubMed

Paglialonga, Alessia; Lugo, Alessandra; Santoro, Eugenio

2018-05-28

The need to characterize and assess health apps has inspired a significant amount of research in the past years, in search for methods able to provide potential app users with relevant, meaningful knowledge. This article presents an overview of the recent literature in this field and categorizes - by discussing some specific examples - the various methodologies introduced so far for the identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps. Specifically, this article outlines the most significant web-based resources for app identification, relevant frameworks for descriptive characterization of apps' features, and a number of methods for the assessment of quality along its various components (e.g., evidence base, trustworthiness, privacy, or user engagement). The development of methods to characterize the apps' features and to assess their quality is important to define benchmarks and minimum requirements. Similarly, such methods are important to categorize potential risks and challenges in the field so that risks can be minimized, whenever possible, by design. Understanding methods to assess apps is key to raise the standards of quality of health apps on the market, towards the final goal of delivering apps that are built on the pillars of evidence-base, reliability, long-term effectiveness, and user-oriented quality. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Utility of Respondent Driven Sampling to Reach Disadvantaged Emerging Adults for Assessment of Substance Use, Weight, and Sexual Behaviors.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Simpson, Cathy A; Chandler, Susan D; Borch, Casey A; Davies, Susan L; Kerbawy, Shatomi J; Lewis, Terri H; Crawford, M Scott; Cheong, JeeWon; Michael, Max

2016-01-01

Emerging adulthood often entails heightened risk-taking with potential life-long consequences, and research on risk behaviors is needed to guide prevention programming, particularly in under-served and difficult to reach populations. This study evaluated the utility of Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a peer-driven methodology that corrects limitations of snowball sampling, to reach at-risk African American emerging adults from disadvantaged urban communities. Initial "seed" participants from the target group recruited peers, who then recruited their peers in an iterative process (110 males, 234 females; M age = 18.86 years). Structured field interviews assessed common health risk factors, including substance use, overweight/obesity, and sexual behaviors. Established gender-and age-related associations with risk factors were replicated, and sample risk profiles and prevalence estimates compared favorably with matched samples from representative U.S. national surveys. Findings supported the use of RDS as a sampling method and grassroots platform for research and prevention with community-dwelling risk groups.

Approach to the health-risk management on municipal reclaimed water reused in landscape water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Li, J.; Liu, W.

2008-12-01

Water pollution and water heavily shortage are both main environmental conflicts in China. Reclaimed water reuse is an important approach to lessen water pollution and solve the water shortage crisis in the city. The heath risk of reclaimed water has become the focus of the public. It is impending to evaluate the health risk of reclaimed water with risk assessment technique. Considering the ways of the reclaimed water reused, it is studied that health risk produced by toxic pollutants and pathogenic microbes in the processes of reclaimed water reused in landscape water system. The pathogenic microbes monitoring techniques in wastewater and reclaimed water are discussed and the hygienic indicators, risk assessment methods, concentration limitations of pathogenic microbes for various reclaimed water uses are studied. The principle of health risk assessment is used to research the exposure level and the health risk of concerned people in a wastewater reuse project where the reclaimed water is applied for green area irrigation in a public park in Beijing. The exposure assessment method and model of various reclaimed water uses are built combining with Beijing reclaimed water project. Firstly the daily ingesting dose and lifetime average daily dose(LADD) of exposure people are provided via field work and monitoring analysis, which could be used in health risk assessment as quantitative reference. The result shows that the main risk comes from the pathology pollutants, the toxic pollutants, the eutrophication pollutants, pathogenic microbes and the secondary pollutants when municipal wastewater is reclaimed for landscape water. The major water quality limited should include pathogenic microbes, toxic pollutants, and heavy metals. Keywords: municipal wastewater, reclaimed water, landscape water, health risk

Applying biotic ligand models and Bayesian techniques: ecological risk assessment of copper and nickel in Tokyo rivers.

PubMed

Hayashi, Takehiko I

2013-01-01

Biotic ligand models (BLMs) have been broadly accepted and used in ecological risk assessment of heavy metals for toxicity normalization with respect to water chemistry. However, the importance of assessing bioavailability by using BLMs has not been widely recognized among Japanese stakeholders. Failing to consider bioavailability may result in less effective risk management than would be possible if currently available state-of-the-art methods were used to relate bioavailable concentrations to toxic effects. In this study, an ecological risk assessment was conducted using BLMs for 6 rivers in Tokyo to stimulate discussion about bioavailability of heavy metals and the use of BLMs in ecological risk management in Japan. In the risk analysis, a Bayesian approach was used to take advantage of information from previous analyses and to calculate uncertainties in the estimation of risk. Risks were judged to be a concern if the predicted environmental concentration exceeded the 5th percentile concentration (HC5) of the species sensitivity distribution. Based on this criterion, risks to stream biota from exposure to Cu were judged not to be very severe, but it would be desirable to conduct further monitoring and field surveys to determine whether temporary exposure to concentrations exceeding the HC5 causes any irreversible effects on the river ecosystem. The risk of exposure to Ni was a concern at only 1 of the 6 sites. BLM corrections affected these conclusions in the case of Cu but were moot in the case of Ni. The use of BLMs in risk assessment calculations for Japanese rivers requires water quality information that is, unfortunately, not always available. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Assessing cadmium exposure risks of vegetables with plant uptake factor and soil property.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Chang, Andrew C; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Peng, Chi

2018-07-01

Plant uptake factors (PUFs) are of great importance in human cadmium (Cd) exposure risk assessment while it has been often treated in a generic way. We collected 1077 pairs of vegetable-soil samples from production fields to characterize Cd PUFs and demonstrated their utility in assessing Cd exposure risks to consumers of locally grown vegetables. The Cd PUFs varied with plant species and pH and organic matter content of soils. Once normalized PUFs against soil parameters, the PUFs distributions were log-normal in nature. In this manner, the PUFs were represented by definable probability distributions instead of a deterministic figure. The Cd exposure risks were then assessed using the normalized PUF based on the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Factors affecting the extent of Cd exposures were isolated through sensitivity analyses. Normalized PUF would illustrate the outcomes for uncontaminated and slightly contaminated soils. Among the vegetables, lettuce was potentially hazardous for residents due to its high Cd accumulation but low Zn concentration. To protect 95% of the lettuce production from causing excessive Cd exposure risks, pH of soils needed to be 5.9 and above. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chair rise transfer detection and analysis using a pendant sensor: an algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Regterschot, G Ruben H; Wahle, Fabian; Geraedts, Hilde; Baldus, Heribert; Zijlstra, Wiebren

2014-01-01

Falls result in substantial disability, morbidity, and mortality among older people. Early detection of fall risks and timely intervention can prevent falls and injuries due to falls. Simple field tests, such as repeated chair rise, are used in clinical assessment of fall risks in older people. Development of on-body sensors introduces potential beneficial alternatives for traditional clinical methods. In this article, we present a pendant sensor based chair rise detection and analysis algorithm for fall risk assessment in older people. The recall and the precision of the transfer detection were 85% and 87% in standard protocol, and 61% and 89% in daily life activities. Estimation errors of chair rise performance indicators: duration, maximum acceleration, peak power and maximum jerk were tested in over 800 transfers. Median estimation error in transfer peak power ranged from 1.9% to 4.6% in various tests. Among all the performance indicators, maximum acceleration had the lowest median estimation error of 0% and duration had the highest median estimation error of 24% over all tests. The developed algorithm might be feasible for continuous fall risk assessment in older people.

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2014-05-01

According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data and knowledge gaps in climate change impact and risk assessment are still widespread and ask for extended and coordinated monitoring programs. In order to discover, visualize and provide access the results of the project, the CLIMB-Portal has been established, serving as a platform for dissemination of project results, including communication and planning for local and regional stakeholders.

Proceedings from the 2001 NASA Occupational Health Conference: Risk Assessment and Management in 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberson, Sheri (Editor); Kelly, Bruce (Editor); Gettleman, Alan G. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This Conference convened approximately 86 registered participants of invited guest speakers, NASA presenters, and a broad spectrum of the Occupational Health disciplines representing NASA Headquarters and all NASA Field Centers. Two days' Professional Development Courses on Exposure Assessment Strategies and Statistics and on Advanced Cardiac Life Support training and recertification preceded the Conference. With the theme, 'Risk Assessment and Management in 2001,' conferees were first provided updates from the Program Principal Center Office and the Headquarters Office. Plenary sessions elaborated on several topics: biological terrorism, OSHA recordability, Workers' Compensation issues, Federal ergonomic standards, bridging aerospace medicine and occupational health-especially in management of risk in spaceflight, and EAP operations with mission failures. A keynote address dealt with resiliency skills for 21st century workers and two NASA astronaut speakers highlighted a tour of the Johnson Space Center. During discipline specific breakout sessions, current issues in occupational health management and policy, credentialing and privileging, health risk assessment, measurement and standardization, audits, database development, prevention and rehabilitation, international travel and infection control, employee assistance, nursing process, and environmental health were presented.

Ecotoxicity testing: science, politics and ethics.

PubMed

Walker, Colin H

2008-02-01

Animal welfare organisations have long been concerned about the use of animals for ecotoxicity testing. Ecotoxicity testing is a necessary part of the statutory risk assessment of chemicals that may be released into the environment. It is sometimes also carried out during the development of new chemicals and in the investigation of pollution in the field. This review considers the existing requirements for ecotoxicity testing, with particular reference to practices in the European Union, including the recent REACH system proposals, before discussing criticisms that have been made of existing practices for environmental risk assessment. These criticisms have been made on scientific and ethical grounds, as well as on questions of cost. A case is made for greater investment in the development of alternative testing methods, which could improve the science, as well as serving the cause of animal welfare. It has frequently been suggested that the statutory requirements for environmental risk assessment are too rigid and bureaucratic. A case is made for flexibility and the greater involvement of scientists in the risk assessment procedure, in the interests of both improved science and improved animal welfare.

Temporary Blinding Limits versus Maximum Permissible Exposure - A Paradigm Change in Risk Assessment for Visible Optical Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidenbach, Hans-Dieter

Safety considerations in the field of laser radiation have traditionally been restricted to maximum permissible exposure levels defined as a function of wavelength and exposure duration. But in Europe according to the European Directive 2006/25/EC on artificial optical radiation the employer has to include in his risk assessment indirect effects from temporary blinding. Whereas sufficient knowledge on various deterministic risks exists, only sparse quantitative data is available for the impairment of visual functions due to temporary blinding from visible optical radiation. The consideration of indirect effects corresponds to a paradigm change in risk assessment when situations have to be treated, where intrabeam viewing of low-power laser radiation is likely or other non-coherent visible radiation might influence certain visual tasks. In order to obtain a sufficient basis for the assessment of certain situations, investigations of the functional relationships between wavelength, exposure time and optical power and the resulting interference on visual functions have been performed and the results are reported. The duration of a visual disturbance is thus predictable. In addition, preliminary information on protective measures is given.

Risk Assessment Approach for the Hanford Site River Corridor Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, J.E.; Weiss, S.G.; Sands, J.P.

2007-07-01

The river corridor portion of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site includes the 100 Area and 300 Area, which border the Columbia River and cover 565 km{sup 2} (218 mi{sup 2}). The River Corridor Closure (RCC) Project scope of work includes 486 contaminated facilities, 4 of 9 deactivated plutonium production reactors, and 370 waste disposal sites. DOE's cleanup actions in the river corridor were initiated in 1994 under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1981 (42 U.S.C. 9601, et seq.) (CERCLA) and included source and groundwater operable units (OUs). DOE's RCC Project, awarded to Washingtonmore » Closure Hanford (WCH) in 2005, focuses on source OUs and has allowed cleanup actions to continue in the 100 and 300 Areas with completion by 2013. The regulatory authorization for cleanup actions at source OUs in the river corridor consists primarily of interim action records of decision (RODs), which were supported by qualitative risk assessments and limited field investigations. A key to establishing final cleanup decisions and proceeding toward final CERCLA closeout is completion of quantitative baseline risk assessment activities. Baseline risk assessment is necessary to determine whether cleanup actions are protective of human health and the environment and to identify any course corrections needed to ensure that current and future cleanup actions are protective. Because cleanup actions are ongoing under interim action RODs, it is desirable to establish the final cleanup decision bases as early as possible to minimize the impacts of any identified course corrections to the cleanup approach. Risk assessment is being performed by WCH as the River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA). The RCBRA uses a multi-step process that summarizes existing data; uses the data quality objectives process to identify both data gaps and unresolved issues through public workshops; and solicits input from regulators, trustees, and stakeholders. Sampling and analysis plans are then developed to document quality requirements and identify field sample collection approaches. After required data are collected, the risks to human health and the environment are assessed. Sampling of upland, riparian, and near-shore environments for the 100/300 Area Component was performed in 2005 and 2006. The 100/300 Area Component includes former operational/reactor areas. The results of these efforts will be incorporated into a mid-2007 draft risk assessment report for the 100/300 Area Component of the RCBRA. Adapting methodology developed from the 100/300 Area Component, the Inter-Areas risk assessment will be conducted for the riparian and near-shore environments. The Inter-Areas Component includes shoreline areas between former operational areas addressed in the 100/300 Area Component. The Inter-Areas risk assessment will supplement results from the 100/300 Area Component to provide a more complete analysis of residual risks in the river corridor. Plans for the final element of the RCBRA, the Columbia River Component, are being developed by DOE and currently is not part of the RCC Project. The Columbia River Component includes the reach of the Columbia River located adjacent to the Hanford Site and reaches downstream to an undetermined boundary. Recommendations for final cleanup decisions at source units within the river corridor, based in part on the risk assessment results, will be presented for future public review in a River Corridor Source Unit Proposed Plan. To form an integrated cleanup approach for the river corridor, the RCBRA results for the source units require integration with risk assessment results from groundwater cleanup actions managed by other contractors. WCH's risk assessment task includes development of an integration strategy for activities leading up to the final regulatory decisions for all OUs in the river corridor. (authors)« less

Harmful algal bloom characterization at ultra-high spatial and temporal resolution using small unmanned aircraft systems.

PubMed

Van der Merwe, Deon; Price, Kevin P

2015-03-27

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) degrade water quality and produce toxins. The spatial distribution of HAbs may change rapidly due to variations wind, water currents, and population dynamics. Risk assessments, based on traditional sampling methods, are hampered by the sparseness of water sample data points, and delays between sampling and the availability of results. There is a need for local risk assessment and risk management at the spatial and temporal resolution relevant to local human and animal interactions at specific sites and times. Small, unmanned aircraft systems can gather color-infrared reflectance data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, with full control over data collection timing, and short intervals between data gathering and result availability. Data can be interpreted qualitatively, or by generating a blue normalized difference vegetation index (BNDVI) that is correlated with cyanobacterial biomass densities at the water surface, as estimated using a buoyant packed cell volume (BPCV). Correlations between BNDVI and BPCV follow a logarithmic model, with r(2)-values under field conditions from 0.77 to 0.87. These methods provide valuable information that is complimentary to risk assessment data derived from traditional risk assessment methods, and could help to improve risk management at the local level.

Harmful Algal Bloom Characterization at Ultra-High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Using Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems

PubMed Central

Van der Merwe, Deon; Price, Kevin P.

2015-01-01

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) degrade water quality and produce toxins. The spatial distribution of HAbs may change rapidly due to variations wind, water currents, and population dynamics. Risk assessments, based on traditional sampling methods, are hampered by the sparseness of water sample data points, and delays between sampling and the availability of results. There is a need for local risk assessment and risk management at the spatial and temporal resolution relevant to local human and animal interactions at specific sites and times. Small, unmanned aircraft systems can gather color-infrared reflectance data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, with full control over data collection timing, and short intervals between data gathering and result availability. Data can be interpreted qualitatively, or by generating a blue normalized difference vegetation index (BNDVI) that is correlated with cyanobacterial biomass densities at the water surface, as estimated using a buoyant packed cell volume (BPCV). Correlations between BNDVI and BPCV follow a logarithmic model, with r2-values under field conditions from 0.77 to 0.87. These methods provide valuable information that is complimentary to risk assessment data derived from traditional risk assessment methods, and could help to improve risk management at the local level. PMID:25826055

Exploring general practitioners' views and experiences on suicide risk assessment and management of young people in primary care: a qualitative study in the UK.

PubMed

Michail, Maria; Tait, Lynda

2016-01-12

To explore general practitioner (GP) views and experiences of assessing, communicating with and managing suicidal young people with the aim of co-producing an educational intervention on youth suicide prevention tailored to GPs' perceived needs. Qualitative focus group study using framework analysis. 5 inner city general practices in Nottingham. 28 GPs took part (9 males) with mean age of 37 years. The median number of years of professional experience was 13. Participants were recruited through convenience sampling based on accessibility, interest in the study and willingness to participate. 3 themes emerged from the data in relation to GP's attitudes and beliefs towards suicide; the challenges GPs experience when it comes to the assessment and management of suicide risk in young people; and optimal ways of addressing some of these challenges through the provision of specialist education and training targeting GPs' knowledge and clinical skills in this field. The findings revealed wide variations in the understanding and operationalisation of risk among GPs, which has subsequent implications to how GPs perceive risk should be assessed. GP education on suicide risk assessment and management in youth should promote a holistic understanding and assessment of risk and its individual, social and contextual influences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Comparative BioInformatics and Computational Toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

Reflecting the numerous changes in the field since the publication of the previous edition, this third edition of Developmental Toxicology focuses on the mechanisms of developmental toxicity and incorporates current technologies for testing in the risk assessment process.

Perspectives and strategies of alternative methods used in the risk assessment of personal care products.

PubMed

Quantin, P; Thélu, A; Catoire, S; Ficheux, H

2015-11-01

Risk assessment for personal care products requires the use of alternative methods since animal testing is now totally banned. Some of these methods are effective and have been validated by the "European Union Reference Laboratory for alternatives to animal testing"; but there is still a need for development and implementation of methods for specific endpoints. In this review, we have focused on dermal risk assessment because it is the prime route of absorption and main target organ for personal care products. Within this field, various areas must be assessed: irritation, sensitisation and toxicokinetic. Personal care product behaviour after use by the consumer and potential effects on the environment are also discussed. The purpose of this review is to show evolution and the prospects of alternative methods for safety dermal assessment. Assessment strategies must be adapted to the different chemical classes of substances studied but also to the way in which they are used. Finally, experimental and theoretical technical parameters that may impact on measured effects have been identified and discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A Practice/Research Collaborative: An Innovative Approach to Identifying and Responding to Psychosocial Functioning Problems and Recidivism Risk among Juvenile Arrestees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dembo, Richard; Walters, Wansley; Meyers, Kathleen

2005-01-01

Effectively identifying and responding to the psychosocial problems and recidivism risk of arrested youths remain critical needs in the field. Centralized intake facilities, such as juvenile assessment centers (JACs), can play a key role in this process. As part of a U.S. National Demonstration Project, the Miami-Dade JAC, serving a…

Clinical efficacy and effectiveness of 3D printing: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Diment, Laura E; Thompson, Mark S; Bergmann, Jeroen H M

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy and effectiveness of using 3D printing to develop medical devices across all medical fields. Design Systematic review compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Data sources PubMed, Web of Science, OVID, IEEE Xplore and Google Scholar. Methods A double-blinded review method was used to select all abstracts up to January 2017 that reported on clinical trials of a three-dimensional (3D)-printed medical device. The studies were ranked according to their level of evidence, divided into medical fields based on the International Classification of Diseases chapter divisions and categorised into whether they were used for preoperative planning, aiding surgery or therapy. The Downs and Black Quality Index critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of reporting, external validity, risk of bias, risk of confounding and power of each study. Results Of the 3084 abstracts screened, 350 studies met the inclusion criteria. Oral and maxillofacial surgery contained 58.3% of studies, and 23.7% covered the musculoskeletal system. Only 21 studies were randomised controlled trials (RCTs), and all fitted within these two fields. The majority of RCTs were 3D-printed anatomical models for preoperative planning and guides for aiding surgery. The main benefits of these devices were decreased surgical operation times and increased surgical accuracy. Conclusions All medical fields that assessed 3D-printed devices concluded that they were clinically effective. The fields that most rigorously assessed 3D-printed devices were oral and maxillofacial surgery and the musculoskeletal system, both of which concluded that the 3D-printed devices outperformed their conventional comparators. However, the efficacy and effectiveness of 3D-printed devices remain undetermined for the majority of medical fields. 3D-printed devices can play an important role in healthcare, but more rigorous and long-term assessments are needed to determine if 3D-printed devices are clinically relevant before they become part of standard clinical practice. PMID:29273650

Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence

PubMed Central

Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks. PMID:26195921

Evaluation of a portable automated serum chemistry analyzer for field assessment of harlequin ducks, Histrionicus histrionicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoskopf, Michael K.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Esler, Daniel N.

2010-01-01

A portable analytical chemistry analyzer was used to make field assessments of wild harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) in association with telemetry studies of winter survival in Prince William Sound, Alaska. We compared serum chemistry results obtained on-site with results from a traditional laboratory. Particular attention was paid to serum glucose and potassium concentrations as potential indicators of high-risk surgical candidates based on evaluation of the field data. The median differential for glucose values ( = 8 2) between methods was 0.6 mmol/L (quartiles 0.3 and 0.9 mmol/L) with the median value higher when assayed on site. Analysis of potassium on site returned a median of 2.7 mmol/L ( = 8 8 ; quartiles 2.4 and 3.0 mmol/L). Serum potassium values were too low for quantitation by the traditional laboratory. Changes in several serum chemistry values following a three-day storm during the study support the value of on site evaluation of serum potassium to identify presurgical patients with increased anesthetic risk.

Stress responses and decision making in child protection workers faced with high conflict situations.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Vicki R; Regehr, Cheryl; Shlonsky, Aron; Bogo, Marion

2012-05-01

The assessment of children at risk of abuse and neglect is a critical societal function performed by child protection workers in situations of acute stress and conflict. Despite efforts to improve the reliability of risk assessments through standardized measures, available tools continue to rely on subjective judgment. The goal of this study was to assess the stress responses of child protection workers and their assessments of risk in high conflict situations. Ninety-six child protection workers participated in 2 simulated scenarios, 1 non-confrontational and 1 confrontational. In each scenario, participants conducted a 15-minute interview with a mother played by a specially trained actor. Following the interview, the workers completed 2 risk assessment measures used in the field at the time of the study. Anxiety was measured by the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory at baseline and immediately following the completion of each interview. Physiological stress as measured by salivary cortisol was obtained at baseline as well as 20 and 30 minutes after the start of each interview. Participants demonstrated significant stress responses during the 1st scenario, regardless of whether the interview was confrontational or not. During the second scenario, the participants did not exhibit significant cortisol responses, however the confrontational interview elicited greater subjective anxiety than the non-confrontational scenario. In the first scenario, in which the workers demonstrated greater stress responses, risk assessment scores were higher on one risk assessment tool for the confrontational scenario than for the non-confrontational scenario. The results suggest that stress responses in child protection workers appear to be influenced by the novelty of a situation and by a parent's demeanor during interviews. Some forms of risk assessment tools appear to be more strongly associated than other with the workers' subjective and physiological stress responses. This merits further research to determine which aspects of risk assessment tools are susceptible to the emotional elements of intake interviews. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Field Monitoring of Drosophila suzukii and Associated Communities in South Eastern France as a Pre-Requisite for Classical Biological Control

PubMed Central

Kremmer, Laurent; Thaon, Marcel; Borowiec, Nicolas; David, Jean; Poirié, Marylène; Ris, Nicolas

2017-01-01

The spotted wing Drosophila, Drosophila suzukii (Ds), became a major economic pest for fruit production since its establishment in Europe and America. Among potential control methods, only classical biological control appears to be a mean of sustainably regulating Ds in both cultivated and natural habitats. In the frame of risk assessment, pre-release surveys were carried out in a restricted but highly heterogeneous area in the south-east of France using traps and deliberate field exposures of Ds and D. melanogaster larvae/pupae. Although Ds abundance varied according to sampling methods, it was found to be pervasive and to produce offspring and adults in most conditions (spatial and seasonal). Its main limits are some specific abiotic conditions (i.e., desiccation) as well as interspecific competition. Indeed, Ds mostly co-occurred with D. busckii and D. hydei, probably due to common phenology and/or ecological requirements. These two species thus deserve more attention for risk assessment. The main indigenous parasitoids collected belonged to two pupal species, Trichopria cf drosophilae and Pachycrepoideus vindemmiae, but their presence was observed late in the autumn and mainly in cultivated areas. Results are discussed in a comparison of the methodological approaches for monitoring Drosophilids and the benefits-risks assessment of classical biological control. PMID:29144440

Process evaluation of the implementation of scorecard-based antenatal risk assessment, care pathways and interdisciplinary consultation: the Healthy Pregnancy 4 All study.

PubMed

Vos, A A; van Voorst, S F; Posthumus, A G; Waelput, A J M; Denktaş, S; Steegers, E A P

2017-09-01

To evaluate the implementation of a complex intervention in the antenatal healthcare field in 14 Dutch municipalities. The intervention consisted of the implementation of a systematic scorecard-based risk assessment in pregnancy, subsequent patient-tailored care pathways, and consultations of professionals from different medical and social disciplines. Saunders's seven-step method was used for the development of a programme implementation monitoring plan, with specific attention to the setting and context of the programme. Data were triangulated from multiple sources, and prespecified criteria were applied to examine the evidence for implementation. Six out of 11 municipalities (54%) met the implementation criteria for the entire risk assessment programme, whereas three municipalities (27%) met the criteria if the three components of implementation were analysed separately. A process evaluation of implementation of a complex intervention is possible. The results can be used to improve understanding of the associations between specific programme elements and programme outcomes on effectiveness of the intervention. Additionally, the results are important for formative purposes to assess how future implementation of antenatal risk assessment can be improved in comparable contexts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

Determining Chemotherapy Tolerance in Older Patients With Cancer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jerome; Hurria, Arti

2014-01-01

Older adults with cancer constitute a heterogeneous group of patients who pose unique challenges for oncology care. One major concern is how to identify patients who are at a higher risk for chemotherapy intolerance, because a standard oncology workup may not always be able to distinguish an older individual’s level of risk for treatment-related complications. Geriatric oncologists incorporate tools used in the field of geriatrics, and have developed the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment to enhance the standard oncology workup. This assessment pinpoints problems with daily activities, comorbidities, medications, nutritional status, cognitive function, psychological state, and social support systems, all of which are risk factors for treatment vulnerability in older adults with cancer. Additional tools that also serve to predict chemotherapy toxicity in older patients with cancer are now available to identify patients at higher risk for morbidity and mortality. Together, these instruments complement the standard oncology workup by providing a global assessment, thereby guiding therapeutic interventions that may improve a patient’s quality of life and clinical outcomes. PMID:24335684

A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.

PubMed

Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Snary, Emma; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil

2013-08-01

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Managing the unmanageable: risk assessment and risk management in contemporary professional practice.

PubMed

Raven, J; Rix, P

1999-07-01

This study sets out to investigate the theories and practices of risk assessment and management in the context of contemporary mental health practice. Although risk assessment and management policies are well established for those working in the field of community mental health care, there are noticeable anomalies and regional variations, in the criteria, procedures and decision-making strategies used. Focus group taped interviews were conducted with over 100 mental health professionals in one NHS Trust. These were compared with an extensive literature review on the topic. The main theme to emerge was lack of resources, which included time and staff in the context of a changing and increasing workload. Another important theme was the lack of access to centralized and accurate information about mental health service provision. It is essential that professionals, clients, their families and the public feel confident in professional judgements and practices to avoid a 'back to the asylum' lobby, for the care and treatment of seriously mentally ill individuals.

[Exposure degree of important non-target arthropods to Cry2Aa in Bt rice fields].

PubMed

Zhang, Qing-Ling; Li, Yun-He; Hua, Hong-Xia; Yang, Chang-Ju; Wu, Hong-Jin; Peng, Yu-Fa

2013-06-01

Based on the principle of "risk = hazard x exposure", the selected representative nontarget organisms in the assessment of the potential effects of insect-resistant genetically modified (GM) crops on non-target arthropods in laboratory are generally the arthropod species highly exposed to the insecticidal proteins expressed by the GM crops in farmland ecosystem. In order to understand the exposure degree of the important arthropod species to Cry proteins in Bt rice fields, and to select the appropriate non-target arthropods in the risk assessment of insect-resistant GM crops, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was conducted to measure the Cry2Aa protein concentration in the arthropods collected from the cry2Aa rice fields at different rice growth stages. The results showed that there was a significant difference in the Cry2Aa content protein concentration in different arthropod species. Some species did not contain Cry2Aa protein, while some species contained larger amounts of Cry2Aa protein. Relative to the arthropods colleted after rice anthesis, the arthropods colleted in rice anthesis contained relative higher concentrations of Cry2Aa protein, especially for the predacious arthropods. No Cry proteins were detected in parasitic arthropods. This study provided references for the laboratory assessment of the effects of GM rice on nontarget arthropods.

New developments in exposure assessment: the impact on the practice of health risk assessment and epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Paustenbach, Dennis; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel

2006-12-01

The field of exposure assessment has matured significantly over the past 10-15 years. Dozens of studies have measured the concentrations of numerous chemicals in many media to which humans are exposed. Others have catalogued the various exposure pathways and identified typical values which can be used in the exposure calculations for the general population such as amount of water or soil ingested per day or the percent of a chemical than can pass through the skin. In addition, studies of the duration of exposure for many tasks (e.g. showering, jogging, working in the office) have been conducted which allow for more general descriptions of the likely range of exposures. All of this information, as well as the development of new and better models (e.g. air dispersion or groundwater models), allow for better estimates of exposure. In addition to identifying better exposure factors, and better mathematical models for predicting the aerial distribution of chemicals, the conduct of simulation studies and dose-reconstruction studies can offer extraordinary opportunities for filling in data gaps regarding historical exposures which are critical to improving the power of epidemiology studies. The use of probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo analysis and Bayesian statistics have revolutionized the practice of exposure assessment and has greatly enhanced the quality of the risk characterization. Lastly, the field of epidemiology is about to undergo a sea change with respect to the exposure component because each year better environmental and exposure models, statistical techniques and new biological monitoring techniques are being introduced. This paper reviews these techniques and discusses where additional research is likely to pay a significant dividend. Exposure assessment techniques are now available which can significantly improve the quality of epidemiology and health risk assessment studies and vastly improve their usefulness. As more quantitative exposure components can now be incorporated into these studies, they can be better used to identify safe levels of exposure using customary risk assessment methodologies. Examples are drawn from both environmental and occupational studies illustrating how these techniques have been used to better understand exposure to specific chemicals. Some thoughts are also presented on what lessons have been learned about conducting exposure assessment for health risk assessments and epidemiological studies.

Risk Assessment for Children Exposed to Arsenic on Baseball Fields with Contaminated Fill Material

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Alesia C.; Black, Jennifer C.; Sims, Isaac B.; Welday, Jennifer N.; Elmir, Samir M.; Goff, Kendra F.; Higginbotham, J. Mark

2018-01-01

Children can be exposed to arsenic through play areas which may have contaminated fill material from historic land use. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the risk to children who play and/or spend time at baseball fields with soils shown to have arsenic above background levels. Arsenic in soils at the study sites located in Miami, FL, USA showed distinct distributions between infield, outfield, and areas adjacent to the fields. Using best estimates of exposure factors for children baseball scenarios, results show that non-cancer risks depend most heavily upon the age of the person and the arsenic exposure level. For extreme exposure scenarios evaluated in this study, children from 1 to 2 years were at highest risk for non-cancer effects (Hazard Quotient, HQ > 2.4), and risks were higher for children exhibiting pica (HQ > 9.7) which shows the importance of testing fill for land use where children may play. At the study sites, concentration levels of arsenic resulted in a range of computed cancer risks that differed by a factor of 10. In these sites, the child’s play position also affected risk. Outfield players, with a lifetime exposure to these arsenic levels, could have 10 times more increased chance of experiencing cancers associated with arsenic (i.e., lung, bladder, skin) in comparison to infielders. The distinct concentration distributions observed between these portions of the baseball fields emphasize the need to delineate contaminated areas in public property where citizens may spend more free time. This study also showed a need for more tools to improve the risk estimates for child play activities. For instance, more refined measurements of exposure factors for intake (e.g., inhalation rates under rigorous play activities, hand to mouth rates), exposure frequency (i.e., time spent in various activities) and other exposure factors (e.g., soil particulate emission rates at baseball play fields) can help pinpoint risk on baseball fields where arsenic levels may be a concern. PMID:29300352

Don't kill canaries! Introducing a new test device to assess the electrostatic risk potential to photomasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebald, Thomas

2008-10-01

Electrostatic protection is an issue for all masks, whether during mask production, shipping, storage, handling or inspection and exposure. Up to now, only manual electrostatic field measurements, or expensive and elaborate analyses with Canary reticles have given hints about the risks of pattern damage by ESD events. A new test device is being introduced, which consists of electrostatic field sensors, integrated INSIDE a closed fused quartz housing which has the outside dimensions of a 6 inch mask. This device can be handled and used like a normal 6 inch reticle. It can be handled and processed while recording the electrostatic charges on the chrome patterns created by friction or field induction just as a reticle would "see" during normal processing.

Disease Risk Analysis and Post-Release Health Surveillance for a Reintroduction Programme: the Pool Frog Pelophylax lessonae.

PubMed

Sainsbury, A W; Yu-Mei, R; Ågren, E; Vaughan-Higgins, R J; Mcgill, I S; Molenaar, F; Peniche, G; Foster, J

2017-10-01

There are risks from disease in undertaking wild animal reintroduction programmes. Methods of disease risk analysis have been advocated to assess and mitigate these risks, and post-release health and disease surveillance can be used to assess the effectiveness of the disease risk analysis, but results for a reintroduction programme have not to date been recorded. We carried out a disease risk analysis for the reintroduction of pool frogs (Pelophylax lessonae) to England, using information gained from the literature and from diagnostic testing of Swedish pool frogs and native amphibians. Ranavirus and Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis were considered high-risk disease threats for pool frogs at the destination site. Quarantine was used to manage risks from disease due to these two agents at the reintroduction site: the quarantine barrier surrounded the reintroduced pool frogs. Post-release health surveillance was carried out through regular health examinations of amphibians in the field at the reintroduction site and collection and examination of dead amphibians. No significant health or disease problems were detected, but the detection rate of dead amphibians was very low. Methods to detect a higher proportion of dead reintroduced animals and closely related species are required to better assess the effects of reintroduction on health and disease. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Bellagio Report: Cardiovascular risks of spaceflight: implications for the future of space travel.

PubMed

Sides, Marian B; Vernikos, Joan; Convertino, Victor A; Stepanek, Jan; Tripp, Lloyd D; Draeger, Jorg; Hargens, Alan R; Kourtidou-Papadeli, Chrysoula; Pavy-LeTraon, Anne; Russomano, Thais; Wong, Julielynn Y; Buccello, Regina R; Lee, Peter H; Nangalia, Vishal; Saary, M Joan

2005-09-01

Long-duration space missions, as well as emerging civilian tourist space travel activities, prompted review and assessment of data available to date focusing on cardiovascular risk and available risk mitigation strategies. The goal was the creation of tools for risk priority assessments taking into account the probability of the occurrence of an adverse cardiovascular event and available and published literature from spaceflight data as well as available risk mitigation strategies. An international group of scientists convened in Bellagio, Italy, in 2004 under the auspices of the Aerospace Medical Association to review available literature for cardiac risks identified in the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (versions 2000, 2004). This effort led to the creation of a priority assessment framework to allow for an objective assessment of the hazard, probability of its occurrence, mission impact, and available risk mitigation measures. Spaceflight data are presented regarding evidence/ no evidence of cardiac dysrhythmias, cardiovascular disease, and cardiac function as well as orthostatic intolerance, exercise capacity, and peripheral resistance in presyncopal astronauts compared to non-presyncopal astronauts. Assessment of the priority of different countermeasures was achieved with a tabular framework with focus on probability of occurrence, mission impact, compliance, practicality, and effectiveness of countermeasures. Special operational settings and circumstances related to sensitive portions of any mission and the impact of environmental influences on mission effectiveness are addressed. The need for development of diagnostic tools, techniques, and countermeasure devices, food preparation, preservation technologies and medication, as well as an infrastructure to support these operations are stressed. Selected countermeasure options, including artificial gravity and pharmacological countermeasures need to be systematically evaluated and validated in flight, especially after long-duration exposures. Data need to be collected regarding the emerging field of suborbital and orbital civilian space travel, to allow for sound risk assessment.

Field trial of insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant genetically modified cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) for environmental risk assessment in Japan.

PubMed

Asanuma, Yoko; Gondo, Takahiro; Ishigaki, Genki; Inoue, Koichi; Zaita, Norihiro; Muguerza, Melody; Akashi, Ryo

2017-04-03

Japan imports cottonseed mainly from Australia and the USA where more than 96% of all cotton varieties grown are genetically modified (GM). GM crops undergo an environmental risk assessment (ERA) under the Law Concerning the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biological Diversity before import into Japan. Potential adverse effects on biodiversity are comprehensively assessed based on competitiveness, production of harmful substances and outcrossing ability. Even though imported cottonseed is intended for food and feed uses and not for cultivation, the potential risks from seed spillage during transport must be evaluated. In most cases, the ERA requires data collected from in-country field trials to demonstrate how the GM crop behaves in Japan's environment. Confined field trials in Japan were conducted for the ERA of Lepidoptera-resistant and glufosinate-tolerant GM cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) lines GHB119 and T304-40. These lines were compared with conventional varieties for growth habit, morphological characteristics, seed dormancy, and allelopathic activity associated with competitiveness and production of harmful substances. Outcrossing ability was not a concern due to the absence of sexually compatible wild relatives in Japan. Although slight statistical differences were observed between the GM line and its conventional comparator for some morphological characteristics, transgenes or transformation were not considered to be responsible for these differences. The trial demonstrated that competitiveness and production of harmful substances by these GM cotton lines were equivalent to conventional cotton varieties that have a long history of safe use, and no potential adverse effects to biosafety in Japan were observed.

Field trial of insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant genetically modified cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) for environmental risk assessment in Japan

PubMed Central

Asanuma, Yoko; Gondo, Takahiro; Ishigaki, Genki; Inoue, Koichi; Zaita, Norihiro; Muguerza, Melody; Akashi, Ryo

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Japan imports cottonseed mainly from Australia and the USA where more than 96% of all cotton varieties grown are genetically modified (GM). GM crops undergo an environmental risk assessment (ERA) under the Law Concerning the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biological Diversity before import into Japan. Potential adverse effects on biodiversity are comprehensively assessed based on competitiveness, production of harmful substances and outcrossing ability. Even though imported cottonseed is intended for food and feed uses and not for cultivation, the potential risks from seed spillage during transport must be evaluated. In most cases, the ERA requires data collected from in-country field trials to demonstrate how the GM crop behaves in Japan's environment. Confined field trials in Japan were conducted for the ERA of Lepidoptera-resistant and glufosinate-tolerant GM cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) lines GHB119 and T304-40. These lines were compared with conventional varieties for growth habit, morphological characteristics, seed dormancy, and allelopathic activity associated with competitiveness and production of harmful substances. Outcrossing ability was not a concern due to the absence of sexually compatible wild relatives in Japan. Although slight statistical differences were observed between the GM line and its conventional comparator for some morphological characteristics, transgenes or transformation were not considered to be responsible for these differences. The trial demonstrated that competitiveness and production of harmful substances by these GM cotton lines were equivalent to conventional cotton varieties that have a long history of safe use, and no potential adverse effects to biosafety in Japan were observed. PMID:28510512

A Bibliometric and Trend Analysis on the Water-Related Risk Assessment Studies for Cryptosporidium Pathogen

PubMed Central

MESDAGHINIA, Alireza; YOUNESIAN, Masuod; NASSERI, Simin; NABIZADEH NODEHI, Ramin; HADI, Mahdi

2015-01-01

Background: The bibliometric methods have been used in many disciplines of sciences to study the scientific production and research trends. In this study, they were used to investigate research trends related to the risk assessment of Cryptosporidium pathogen in water field. Methods: Data were obtained on the Scopus database from 1993 to 2013. Research tendency was investigated by analyzing the distribution of languages, countries, journals, author keywords, authorship pattern and co-authorship relations. Results: The English language was dominant language of all publications (96.36%). Number of articles in this field increased from 2 in 1993 to 29 papers in 2007 and then received to 19 at the end of 2013. United States produced 35.41% of all pertinent articles followed by United Kingdom with 10.76% and Australia with 9.92%. Water Research Journal published the most papers in this field, taking 11.62% of all, followed by Journal of Water and Health (10.92%) and Water Science and Technology (10.21%). The most productive authors were Ashbolt NJ form Canada that accounts about 1.51% of the total publications followed by Rose JB and Haas CN from United States. Authorship pattern analysis results show that literature does follow Lotka’s law (P=0.627). Conclusion: A downward trend in the number of publications is likely to occur in future. The results of this bibliometric analysis may help relevant researchers realize the scope of the microbial risk assessment research of Cryptosporidium, and establish the further research direction. PMID:26622289

Dietary Toxicity Thresholds and Ecological Risks for Birds and Mammals Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

PubMed

Korsman, John C; Schipper, Aafke M; Hendriks, A Jan

2016-10-04

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are commonly used in regulatory procedures and ecological risk assessments. Yet, most toxicity threshold and risk assessment studies are based on invertebrates and fish. In the present study, no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) specific to birds and mammals were used to derive SSDs and corresponding hazardous concentrations for 5% of the species (HC5 values). This was done for 41 individual substances as well as for subsets of substances aggregated based on their toxic Mode of Action (MoA). In addition, potential differences in SSD parameters (mean and standard deviation) were investigated in relation to MoA and end point (growth, reproduction, and survival). The means of neurotoxic and respirotoxic compounds were significantly lower than those of narcotics, whereas no differences were found between end points. The standard deviations of the SSDs were similar across MoA's and end points. Finally, the SSDs obtained were used in a case study by calculating Ecological Risks (ER) and multisubstance Potentially Affected Fractions of species (msPAF) based on 19 chemicals in 10 Northwestern European estuaries and coastal areas. The assessment showed that the risks were all below 2.6 × 10 -2 . However, the calculated risks underestimate the actual risks of chemicals in these areas because the potential impacts of substances that were not measured in the field or for which no SSD was available were not included in the risk assessment. The SSDs obtained can be used in regulatory procedures and for assessing the impacts of contaminants on birds and mammals from fish contaminants monitoring programs.

Risk and toxicity assessments of heavy metals in sediments and fishes from the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake, China.

PubMed

Fu, Jie; Hu, Xin; Tao, Xiancong; Yu, Hongxia; Zhang, Xiaowei

2013-11-01

Heavy metal pollution is one of the most serous environmental issues globally. To evaluate the metal pollution in Jiangsu Province of China, the total concentrations of heavy metals in sediments and fishes from the Yangtze River and Taihu Lake were analyzed. Ecological risk of sediments and human health risk of fish consumption were assessed respectively. Furthermore, toxicity of samples on expression of the stress responsive genes was evaluated using microbial live cell-array method. The results showed that the heavy metals concentrations in sediments from the Yangtze River were much higher than those in sediments from the Taihu Lake. However, the fishes from the Taihu Lake had higher concentrations of heavy metals than fishes from the Yangtze River. Ecological risk evaluation showed that the heavy metal contaminants in sediments from the Yangtze River posed higher risk of adverse ecological effects, while sediments from the study areas of Taihu Lake were relatively safe. Health risk assessment suggested that the heavy metals in fishes of both Yangtze River and Taihu Lake might have risk of adverse health effects to human. The toxicity assessment indicated that the heavy metals in these sediments and fishes showed transcriptional effects on the selected 21 stress responsive genes, which were involved in the pathways of DNA damage response, chemical stress, and perturbations of electron transport. Together, this field investigation combined with chemical analysis, risk assessment and toxicity bioassay would provide useful information on the heavy metal pollution in Jiangsu Province. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding of No Significant Impact and Finding of No Practicable Alternative Construction of a Warehouse Complex MacDill Air Force Base, Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-31

that Federal agencies identify and assess environmental health and safety risks that might disproportionately affect children. The Proposed Action...extra water is sent to one irrigation field near Golf Course Avenue and Affected Environment Environmental Assessment for Warehouse Complex...the area . Environmental Consequences Environmental Assessment for Warehouse Complex MacDill AFB, Florida FEBRUARY 2010 4-15 FINAL Figure

Pilot Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation of START:AV Assessments in Secure Juvenile Correctional Facilities

PubMed Central

Sellers, Brian G; Viljoen, Jodi L.; Cruise, Keith R.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Dvoskin, Joel A.

2012-01-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a new structured professional judgment guide for assessing short-term risks in adolescents. The scheme may be distinguished from other youth risk assessment and treatment planning instruments by its inclusion of 23 dynamic factors that are each rated for both vulnerability and strength. In addition, START:AV is also unique in that it focuses on multiple adverse outcomes—namely, violence, self-harm, suicide, unauthorized leave, substance abuse, self-neglect, victimization, and general offending—over the short-term (i.e., weeks to months) rather than long-term (i.e., years). This paper describes a pilot implementation and preliminary evaluation of START:AV in three secure juvenile correctional facilities in the southern United States. Specifically, we examined the descriptive characteristics and psychometric properties of START:AV assessments completed by 21 case managers on 291 adolescent offenders (250 boys and 41 girls) at the time of admission. Results provide preliminary support for the feasibility of completing START:AV assessments as part of routine practice. Findings also highlight differences in the characteristics of START:AV assessments for boys and girls and differential associations between the eight START:AV risk domains. Though results are promising, further research is needed to establish the reliability and validity of START:AV assessments completed in the field. PMID:23316116

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

PubMed

Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon J; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias; Dortch, Jason M; Edwards, Laura A; Merad, Myriam

2018-04-15

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating analytic and risk assessment tools to estimate sediment and nutrients losses from agricultural lands in the southern region of the USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Non-point source pollution from agricultural fields is a critical problem associated with water quality impairment in the USA and a low-oxygen environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The use, development and enhancement of qualitative and quantitative models or tools for assessing agricultural runoff qua...

Fate and effects of clothianidin in fields using conservation practices.

PubMed

de Perre, Chloé; Murphy, Tracye M; Lydy, Michael J

2015-02-01

Despite the extensive use of the neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin, and its known toxicity to beneficial insects such as pollinators, little attention has been given to its fate under agricultural field conditions. The present study investigated the fate and toxicity of clothianidin applied every other year as a corn seed-coating at 2 different rates, 0.25 mg/seed and 0.50 mg/seed, in an agricultural field undergoing a corn-soybean annual rotation, and conservation tillage. Concentrations were measured in soil, surface runoff, infiltration, and groundwater from 2011 to 2013. Clothianidin was detected at low concentrations in soil and water throughout the 2-yr corn and soybean rotation. Low and no-tillage had little or no effect on clothianidin concentrations. Laboratory toxicity bioassays were performed on nontarget species, including Daphnia magna, Hyalella azteca, Chironomus dilutus, Pimephales promelas and Eisenia fetida. Risk quotients were calculated from clothianidin concentrations measured in the field and compared with the laboratory toxicity bioassay results to assess the environmental risk of the insecticide. The risk quotient was found to be lower than the level of concern for C. dilutus, which was the most sensitive species tested; therefore, no short-term environmental risk was expected for the species investigated in the present study. © 2014 SETAC.

Development of the Releasable Asbestos Field Sampler

EPA Science Inventory

A risk assessment for intermittent, low-level exposure to asbestos requires personal breathing concentration data. Currently, activity-based sampling (ABS) is the preferred approach to measurement of a person’s inhalation exposure; i.e., asbestos structures per cubic centimeter ...

APPLYING TOXICITY IDENTIFICATION PROCEDURES TO FIELD COLLECTED SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Identification of specific causes of sediment toxicity can allow for much more focused risk assessment and management decision making. We have been developing toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) methods for contaminated sediments and focusing on three toxicant groups (ammoni...

3-D SIMULATIONS OF AIRWAYS WITHIN HUMAN LUNGS

EPA Science Inventory

Information regarding the deposition patterns of inhaled particles has important application to the fields of toxicology and medicine. The former concerns the risk assessment of inhaled air pollutants (inhalation toxicology); the latter concerns the targeted delivery of inhaled ...

Spray Toxicity and Risk Potential of 42 Commonly Used Formulations of Row Crop Pesticides to Adult Honey Bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae).

PubMed

Zhu, Yu Cheng; Adamczyk, John; Rinderer, Thomas; Yao, Jianxiu; Danka, Robert; Luttrell, Randall; Gore, Jeff

2015-12-01

To combat an increasing abundance of sucking insect pests, >40 pesticides are currently recommended and frequently used as foliar sprays on row crops, especially cotton. Foraging honey bees may be killed when they are directly exposed to foliar sprays, or they may take contaminated pollen back to hives that maybe toxic to other adult bees and larvae. To assess acute toxicity against the honey bee, we used a modified spray tower to simulate field spray conditions to include direct whole-body exposure, inhalation, and continuing tarsal contact and oral licking after a field spray. A total of 42 formulated pesticides, including one herbicide and one fungicide, were assayed for acute spray toxicity to 4-6-d-old workers. Results showed significantly variable toxicities among pesticides, with LC50s ranging from 25 to thousands of mg/liter. Further risk assessment using the field application concentration to LC1 or LC99 ratios revealed the risk potential of the 42 pesticides. Three pesticides killed less than 1% of the worker bees, including the herbicide, a miticide, and a neonicotinoid. Twenty-six insecticides killed more than 99% of the bees, including commonly used organophosphates and neonicotinoids. The remainder of the 13 chemicals killed from 1-99% of the bees at field application rates. This study reveals a realistic acute toxicity of 42 commonly used foliar pesticides. The information is valuable for guiding insecticide selection to minimize direct killing of foraging honey bees, while maintaining effective control of field crop pests. Published by Oxford University Press [on behalf of Entomological Society of America] 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

A modular Human Exposure Model (HEM) framework to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Impact Analysis (LCIA) has proven to be a valuable tool for systematically comparing processes and products, and has been proposed for use in Chemical Alternatives Analysis (CAA). The exposure assessment portion of the human health impact scores of LCIA has historically focused on far-field sources (environmentally mediated exposures) while research has shown that use related exposures, (near-field exposures) typically dominate population exposure. Characterizing the human health impacts of chemicals in consumer products over the life cycle of these products requires an evaluation of both near-field as well far-field sources. Assessing the impacts of the near-field exposures requires bridging the scientific and technical gaps that currently prevent the harmonious use of the best available methods and tools from the fields of LCIA and human health exposure and risk assessment. The U.S. EPA’s Chemical Safety and Sustainability LC-HEM project is developing the Human Exposure Model (HEM) to assess near-field exposures to chemicals that occur to various populations over the life cycle of a commercial product. The HEM will be a publically available, web-based, modular system which will allow for the evaluation of chemical/product impacts in a LCIA framework to support CAA. We present here an overview of the framework for the modular HEM system. The framework includes a data flow diagram of in-progress and future planned modules, the definition of each mod

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Dengue Disease Risk Mental Models in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh: Juxtapositions and Gaps Between the Public and Experts.

PubMed

Dhar-Chowdhury, Parnali; Haque, C Emdad; Driedger, S Michelle

2016-05-01

Worldwide, more than 50 million cases of dengue fever are reported every year in at least 124 countries, and it is estimated that approximately 2.5 billion people are at risk for dengue infection. In Bangladesh, the recurrence of dengue has become a growing public health threat. Notably, knowledge and perceptions of dengue disease risk, particularly among the public, are not well understood. Recognizing the importance of assessing risk perception, we adopted a comparative approach to examine a generic methodology to assess diverse sets of beliefs related to dengue disease risk. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures regarding the risk associated with dengue virus, its vector (Aedes mosquitoes), water container use, and human activities in the city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. "Public mental models" were developed from interviews and focus group discussions with diverse community groups; "expert mental models" were formulated based on open-ended discussions with experts in the pertinent fields. A comparative assessment of the public's and experts' knowledge and perception of dengue disease risk has revealed significant gaps in the perception of: (a) disease risk indicators and measurements; (b) disease severity; (c) control of disease spread; and (d) the institutions responsible for intervention. This assessment further identifies misconceptions in public perception regarding: (a) causes of dengue disease; (b) dengue disease symptoms; (c) dengue disease severity; (d) dengue vector ecology; and (e) dengue disease transmission. Based on these results, recommendations are put forward for improving communication of dengue risk and practicing local community engagement and knowledge enhancement in Bangladesh. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

In situ remediation-released zero-valent iron nanoparticles impair soil ecosystems health: A C. elegans biomarker-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Ying-Fei; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-11-05

There is considerable concern over the potential ecotoxicity to soil ecosystems posed by zero-valent iron nanoparticles (Fe(0) NPs) released from in situ environmental remediation. However, a lack of quantitative risk assessment has hampered the development of appropriate testing methods used in environmental applications. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess Fe(0) NPs-associated soil ecosystems health risk using the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as a model organism. A Hill-based dose-response model describing the concentration-fertility inhibition relationships was constructed. A Weibull model was used to estimate thresholds as a guideline to protect C. elegans from infertility when exposed to waterborne or foodborne Fe(0) NPs. Finally, the risk metrics, exceedance risk (ER) and risk quotient (RQ) of Fe(0) NPs in various depths and distances from remediation sites can then be predicted. We showed that under 50% risk probability (ER=0.5), upper soil layer had the highest infertility risk (95% confidence interval: 13.18-57.40%). The margins of safety and acceptable criteria for soil ecosystems health for using Fe(0) NPs in field scale applications were also recommended. Results showed that RQs are larger than 1 in all soil layers when setting a stricter threshold of ∼1.02mgL(-1) of Fe(0) NPs. This C. elegans biomarker-based risk model affords new insights into the links between widespread use of Fe(0) NPs and environmental risk assessment and offers potential environmental implications of metal-based NPs for in situ remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lead in rice: analysis of baseline lead levels in market and field collected rice grains.

PubMed

Norton, Gareth J; Williams, Paul N; Adomako, Eureka E; Price, Adam H; Zhu, Yongguan; Zhao, Fang-Jie; McGrath, Steve; Deacon, Claire M; Villada, Antia; Sommella, Alessia; Lu, Ying; Ming, Lei; De Silva, P Mangala C S; Brammer, Hugh; Dasgupta, Tapash; Islam, M Rafiqul; Meharg, Andrew A

2014-07-01

In a large scale survey of rice grains from markets (13 countries) and fields (6 countries), a total of 1578 rice grain samples were analysed for lead. From the market collected samples, only 0.6% of the samples exceeded the Chinese and EU limit of 0.2 μg g(-1) lead in rice (when excluding samples collected from known contaminated/mine impacted regions). When evaluating the rice grain samples against the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) values for children and pregnant women, it was found that only people consuming large quantities of rice were at risk of exceeding the PTTI from rice alone. Furthermore, 6 field experiments were conducted to evaluate the proportion of the variation in lead concentration in rice grains due to genetics. A total of 4 of the 6 field experiments had significant differences between genotypes, but when the genotypes common across all six field sites were assessed, only 4% of the variation was explained by genotype, with 9.5% and 11% of the variation explained by the environment and genotype by environment interaction respectively. Further work is needed to identify the sources of lead contamination in rice, with detailed information obtained on the locations and environments where the rice is sampled, so that specific risk assessments can be performed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incident reporting to BfArM - regulatory framework, results and challenges.

PubMed

Seidel, Robin; Stößlein, Ekkehard; Lauer, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Medical devices are manifold and one of the most innovative fields of technology. As technologies advance, former limits cease to exist and complex devices become reality. Medical devices represent a very dynamic field with high economic relevance. The manufacturer of a medical device is obliged to minimize product-related risks as well as to demonstrate compliance with the so-called "essential requirements" regarding safety and performance before placing the device on the market. Any critical incident in relation to the application of a medical device has to be reported to the competent authority for risk assessment, which in Germany is either the Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) or the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) depending on the type of device. In this article, the German regulatory framework for medical devices and the resulting tasks for BfArM are described as well as the topics of its recently installed research and development group on prospective risk identification and application safety for medical devices. Results of failure mode and root cause analyses of incident data are presented as well as further data on cases with the result "root-cause analysis not possible". Finally an outlook is given on future challenges regarding risk assessment for medical devices.

Probabilistic risk assessment of cotton pyrethroids: I. Distributional analyses of laboratory aquatic toxicity data.

PubMed

Solomon, K R; Giddings, J M; Maund, S J

2001-03-01

This is the first in a series of five papers that assess the risk of the cotton pyrethroids in aquatic ecosystems in a series of steps ranging from the analysis of effects data through modeling exposures in the landscape. Pyrethroid insecticides used on cotton have the potential to contaminate aquatic systems. The objectives of this study were to develop probabilistic estimates of toxicity distributions, to compare these among the pyrethroids, and to evaluate cypermethrin as a representative pyrethroid for the purposes of a class risk assessment of the pyrethroids. The distribution of cypermethrin acute toxicity data gave 10th centile values of 10 ng/L for all organisms, 6.4 ng/L for arthropods, and 380 ng/L for vertebrates. For bifenthrin, cyfluthrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and deltamethrin, the 10th centile values for all organisms were 15, 12, 10, and 9 ng/L, respectively, indicating similar or somewhat lower toxicity than cypermethrin. For tralomethrin and fenpropathrin, the 10th centiles were <310 and 240 ng/L, respectively. The distribution of permethrin toxicity to all organisms, arthropods, and vertebrates gave 10th centiles of 180, 76, and 1600 ng/L, respectively, whereas those for fenvalerate were 37, 8, and 150 ng/L. With the exception of tralomethrin, the distributions of acute toxicity values had similar slopes, suggesting that the variation of sensitivity in a range of aquatic nontarget species is similar. The pyrethroids have different recommended field rates of application that are related to their efficacy, and the relationship between field rate and 10th centiles showed a trend. These results support the use of cypermethrin as a reasonable worst-case surrogate for the other pyrethroids for the purposes of risk assessment of pyrethroids as a class.

Soil invertebrate community change over fuel-contaminated sites on a subantarctic island: An ecological field-based line of evidence for site risk assessment.

PubMed

Wasley, Jane; Mooney, Thomas J; King, Catherine K

2016-04-01

A number of fuel spills, of both recent and historic origins, have occurred on World Heritage-listed subantarctic Macquarie Island. Sites contaminated by mainly diesel fuels are undergoing remediation by the Australian Antarctic Division. The risks posed by these sites are being managed using a "weight of evidence" approach, for which this study provides a preliminary line of evidence for the ecological assessment component of this site management decision framework. This knowledge is pertinent, given the absence of environmental guidelines for fuel contaminants in subantarctic ecosystems. We provide a field-based, site-specific ecological risk assessment for soil invertebrate communities across the fuel spill sites, before the commencement of in situ remediation activities. Springtails (Collembola) were the most abundant taxa. Springtail community patterns showed only limited correlations with the level of fuel contamination at the soil surface, even when elevated levels occurred in the substratum layers. Of the environmental variables measured, community patterns were most strongly correlated with vegetation cover. We identify a suite of 6 species that contribute most to the community dynamics across these sites. A subset of these we propose as useful candidates for future development of single-species toxicity tests: Folsomotoma punctata, Cryptopygus caecus, Cryptopygus antarcticus and Parisotoma insularis. Findings from this study advance our understanding of soil invertebrate community dynamics within these contaminated sites, directly contributing to the improved management and restoration of the sites. Not only does this study provide an important line of evidence for the island's ecological risk assessment for fuel contaminants, it also enhances our understanding of the potential impact of fuels at other subantarctic islands. © 2015 SETAC.

Sex and repeated restraint stress interact to affect cat odor-induced defensive behavior in adult rats.

PubMed

Perrot-Sinal, Tara S; Gregus, Andrea; Boudreau, Daniel; Kalynchuk, Lisa E

2004-11-19

The overall objective of the present experiment was to assess sex differences in the effects of repeated restraint stress on fear-induced defensive behavior and general emotional behavior. Groups of male and female Long-Evans rats received either daily restraint stress (stressed) or daily brief handling (nonstressed) for 21 consecutive days. On days 22-25, a number of behavioral tests were administered concluding with a test of defensive behavior in response to a predatory odor. Stressed and nonstressed males and females were exposed to a piece of cat collar previously worn by a female domestic cat (cat odor) or a piece of collar never worn by a cat (control odor) in a familiar open field containing a hide barrier. Rats displayed pronounced defensive behavior (increased hiding and risk assessment) and decreased nondefensive behavior (grooming, rearing) in response to the cat odor. Nonstressed females exposed to cat odor displayed less risk assessment behavior relative to nonstressed males exposed to cat odor. Restraint stress had little effect on defensive behavior in male rats but significantly increased risk assessment behaviors in females. Behavior on the Porsolt forced swim test (a measure of depression-like behavior) and the open field test (a measure of anxiety-like behavior) was not affected by stress or sex. These findings indicate the utility of the predator odor paradigm in detecting subtle shifts in naturally occurring anxiety-like behaviors that may occur differentially in males and females.

Selecting chemical and ecotoxicological test batteries for risk assessment of trace element-contaminated soils (phyto)managed by gentle remediation options (GRO).

PubMed

Kumpiene, Jurate; Bert, Valérie; Dimitriou, Ioannis; Eriksson, Jan; Friesl-Hanl, Wolfgang; Galazka, Rafal; Herzig, Rolf; Janssen, Jolien; Kidd, Petra; Mench, Michel; Müller, Ingo; Neu, Silke; Oustriere, Nadège; Puschenreiter, Markus; Renella, Giancarlo; Roumier, Pierre-Hervé; Siebielec, Grzegorz; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Manier, Nicolas

2014-10-15

During the past decades a number of field trials with gentle remediation options (GRO) have been established on trace element (TE) contaminated sites throughout Europe. Each research group selects different methods to assess the remediation success making it difficult to compare efficacy between various sites and treatments. This study aimed at selecting a minimum risk assessment battery combining chemical and ecotoxicological assays for assessing and comparing the effectiveness of GRO implemented in seven European case studies. Two test batteries were pre-selected; a chemical one for quantifying TE exposure in untreated soils and GRO-managed soils and a biological one for characterizing soil functionality and ecotoxicity. Soil samples from field studies representing one of the main GROs (phytoextraction in Belgium, Sweden, Germany and Switzerland, aided phytoextraction in France, and aided phytostabilization or in situ stabilization/phytoexclusion in Poland, France and Austria) were collected and assessed using the selected test batteries. The best correlations were obtained between NH4NO3-extractable, followed by NaNO3-extractable TE and the ecotoxicological responses. Biometrical parameters and biomarkers of dwarf beans were the most responsive indicators for the soil treatments and changes in soil TE exposures. Plant growth was inhibited at the higher extractable TE concentrations, while plant stress enzyme activities increased with the higher TE extractability. Based on these results, a minimum risk assessment battery to compare/biomonitor the sites phytomanaged by GROs might consist of the NH4NO3 extraction and the bean Plantox test including the stress enzyme activities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species.

PubMed

Barmaz, Stefania; Potts, Simon G; Vighi, Marco

2010-10-01

Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June-July for permanent crops.

COMPUTERIZED ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN NEUROTOXICITY: SENSITIVITY TO NITROUS OXIDE EXPOSURE

EPA Science Inventory

The authors recently developed a flexible, portable, computer based neurobehavioral evaluation system (NES) to standardize data collection in epidemiologic field studies of individuals at risk for neurobehavioral toxicity. The current study was performed to examine the system's s...

RESULTS OF APPLYING TOXICITY IDENTIFICATION PROCEDURES TO FIELD COLLECTED SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Identification of specific causes of sediment toxicity can allow for much more focused risk assessment and management decision making. We have been developing toxicity identification evaluation TIE) methods for contaminated sediments and are focusing on three toxicant groups (amm...

Relation between residential magnetic fields, light-at-night, and nocturnal urine melatonin levels in women: Volume 2 -- Magnetic field exposure analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaune, W.; Davis, S.; Stevens, R.

Scientists have postulated a link between exposure to magnetic fields and reduced blood melatonin levels. This EPRI study was designed to supplement a National Cancer Institute study (NCI-BC) of magnetic fields, light-at-night, and the risk of breast cancer. By expanding the exposure assessment of the NCI-BC and collecting data on urine melatonin levels, this project provides new insight into a possible magnetic field-melatonin link. It has been proposed that exposure to 60-Hz (power frequency) magnetic fields may increase the risk of breast cancer by suppressing the normal nocturnal rise in melatonin production in the pineal gland. It remains unknown whethermore » the human pineal gland is reproducibly responsive or sensitive to magnetic field exposure, and whether such exposures could alter elements of the endogenous hormonal environment in women that might be important in the etiology of breast cancer. The objective of this research was to investigate whether exposure to power-frequency magnetic fields and/or light-at-night is associated with levels of the primary urinary melatonin metabolite in women without a history of breast cancer.« less

Risk assessment and management of occupational exposure to pesticides in agriculture.

PubMed

Maroni, M; Fanetti, Anna Clara; Metruccio, Francesca

2006-01-01

Nearly 50% of the world labour force is employed in agriculture. Over the last 50 years, agriculture has deeply changed with a massive utilisation of pesticides and fertilisers to enhance crop protection and production, food quality and food preservation. Pesticides are also increasingly employed for public health purposes and for domestic use. Pesticide are unique chemicals as they are intrinsically toxic for several biological targets, are deliberately spread into the environment, and their toxicity has a limited species selectivity. Pesticide toxicity depends on the compound family and is generally greater for the older compounds; in humans, they are responsible for acute poisonings as well as for long term health effects, including cancer and adverse effects on reproduction. Due to their intrinsic toxicity, in most countries a specific and complex legislation prescribes a thorough risk assessment process for pesticides prior to their entrance to the market (pre-marketing risk assessment). The post-marketing risk assessment takes place during the use of pesticides and aims at assessing the risk for exposed operators. The results of the risk assessment are the base for the health surveillance of exposed workers. Occupational exposure to pesticides in agriculture concerns product distributors, mixers and loaders, applicators, bystanders, and rural workers re-entering the fields shortly after treatment. Assessing and managing the occupational health risks posed by the use of pesticides in agriculture is a complex but essential task for occupational health specialists and toxicologists. In spite of the economic and social importance of agriculture, the health protection of agricultural workforce has been overlooked for too many years, causing an heavy tribute paid in terms of avoidable diseases, human sufferance, and economic losses. Particularly in the developing countries, where agricultural work is one of the predominant job, a sustainable model of development calls for more attention to occupational risks in agriculture. The experience of many countries has shown that prevention of health risk caused by pesticides is technically feasible and economically rewarding for the individuals and the whole community. A proper risk assessment and management of pesticide use is an essential component of this preventative

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

The use of statistical tools in field testing of putative effects of genetically modified plants on nontarget organisms

PubMed Central

Semenov, Alexander V; Elsas, Jan Dirk; Glandorf, Debora C M; Schilthuizen, Menno; Boer, Willem F

2013-01-01

Abstract To fulfill existing guidelines, applicants that aim to place their genetically modified (GM) insect-resistant crop plants on the market are required to provide data from field experiments that address the potential impacts of the GM plants on nontarget organisms (NTO's). Such data may be based on varied experimental designs. The recent EFSA guidance document for environmental risk assessment (2010) does not provide clear and structured suggestions that address the statistics of field trials on effects on NTO's. This review examines existing practices in GM plant field testing such as the way of randomization, replication, and pseudoreplication. Emphasis is placed on the importance of design features used for the field trials in which effects on NTO's are assessed. The importance of statistical power and the positive and negative aspects of various statistical models are discussed. Equivalence and difference testing are compared, and the importance of checking the distribution of experimental data is stressed to decide on the selection of the proper statistical model. While for continuous data (e.g., pH and temperature) classical statistical approaches – for example, analysis of variance (ANOVA) – are appropriate, for discontinuous data (counts) only generalized linear models (GLM) are shown to be efficient. There is no golden rule as to which statistical test is the most appropriate for any experimental situation. In particular, in experiments in which block designs are used and covariates play a role GLMs should be used. Generic advice is offered that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in this testing. The combination of decision trees and a checklist for field trials, which are provided, will help in the interpretation of the statistical analyses of field trials and to assess whether such analyses were correctly applied. We offer generic advice to risk assessors and applicants that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in field testing. PMID:24567836

The use of statistical tools in field testing of putative effects of genetically modified plants on nontarget organisms.

PubMed

Semenov, Alexander V; Elsas, Jan Dirk; Glandorf, Debora C M; Schilthuizen, Menno; Boer, Willem F

2013-08-01

To fulfill existing guidelines, applicants that aim to place their genetically modified (GM) insect-resistant crop plants on the market are required to provide data from field experiments that address the potential impacts of the GM plants on nontarget organisms (NTO's). Such data may be based on varied experimental designs. The recent EFSA guidance document for environmental risk assessment (2010) does not provide clear and structured suggestions that address the statistics of field trials on effects on NTO's. This review examines existing practices in GM plant field testing such as the way of randomization, replication, and pseudoreplication. Emphasis is placed on the importance of design features used for the field trials in which effects on NTO's are assessed. The importance of statistical power and the positive and negative aspects of various statistical models are discussed. Equivalence and difference testing are compared, and the importance of checking the distribution of experimental data is stressed to decide on the selection of the proper statistical model. While for continuous data (e.g., pH and temperature) classical statistical approaches - for example, analysis of variance (ANOVA) - are appropriate, for discontinuous data (counts) only generalized linear models (GLM) are shown to be efficient. There is no golden rule as to which statistical test is the most appropriate for any experimental situation. In particular, in experiments in which block designs are used and covariates play a role GLMs should be used. Generic advice is offered that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in this testing. The combination of decision trees and a checklist for field trials, which are provided, will help in the interpretation of the statistical analyses of field trials and to assess whether such analyses were correctly applied. We offer generic advice to risk assessors and applicants that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in field testing.

Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled.

PubMed

Bargar, Timothy A

2012-04-01

A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Violence and school shootings.

PubMed

Flannery, Daniel J; Modzeleski, William; Kretschmar, Jeff M

2013-01-01

Multiple-homicide school shootings are rare events, but when they happen they significantly impact individuals, the school and the community. We focus on multiple-homicide incidents and identified mental health issues of shooters. To date, studies of school shootings have concluded that no reliable profile of a shooter exists, so risk should be assessed using comprehensive threat assessment protocols. Existing studies primarily utilize retrospective case histories or media accounts. The field requires more empirical and systematic research on all types of school shootings including single victim incidents, those that result in injury but not death and those that are successfully averted. We discuss current policies and practices related to school shootings and the role of mental health professionals in assessing risk and supporting surviving victims.

Automation to improve efficiency of field expedient injury prediction screening.

PubMed

Teyhen, Deydre S; Shaffer, Scott W; Umlauf, Jon A; Akerman, Raymond J; Canada, John B; Butler, Robert J; Goffar, Stephen L; Walker, Michael J; Kiesel, Kyle B; Plisky, Phillip J

2012-07-01

Musculoskeletal injuries are a primary source of disability in the U.S. Military. Physical training and sports-related activities account for up to 90% of all injuries, and 80% of these injuries are considered overuse in nature. As a result, there is a need to develop an evidence-based musculoskeletal screen that can assist with injury prevention. The purpose of this study was to assess the capability of an automated system to improve the efficiency of field expedient tests that may help predict injury risk and provide corrective strategies for deficits identified. The field expedient tests include survey questions and measures of movement quality, balance, trunk stability, power, mobility, and foot structure and mobility. Data entry for these tests was automated using handheld computers, barcode scanning, and netbook computers. An automated algorithm for injury risk stratification and mitigation techniques was run on a server computer. Without automation support, subjects were assessed in 84.5 ± 9.1 minutes per subject compared with 66.8 ± 6.1 minutes per subject with automation and 47.1 ± 5.2 minutes per subject with automation and process improvement measures (p < 0.001). The average time to manually enter the data was 22.2 ± 7.4 minutes per subject. An additional 11.5 ± 2.5 minutes per subject was required to manually assign an intervention strategy. Automation of this injury prevention screening protocol using handheld devices and netbook computers allowed for real-time data entry and enhanced the efficiency of injury screening, risk stratification, and prescription of a risk mitigation strategy.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Framework for Incorporating Patient Preferences Regarding Benefits and Risks into Regulatory Assessment of Medical Technologies.

PubMed

Ho, Martin; Saha, Anindita; McCleary, K Kimberly; Levitan, Bennett; Christopher, Stephanie; Zandlo, Kristen; Braithwaite, R Scott; Hauber, A Brett

In response to 2012 guidance in which the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) stated the importance of patient-centric measures in regulatory benefit-risk assessments, the Medical Device Innovation Consortium (MDIC) initiated a project. The project was used to develop a framework to help the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and industry sponsors understand how patient preferences regarding benefit and risk might be integrated into the review of innovative medical devices. A public-private partnership of experts from medical device industry, government, academia and non-profits collaborated on development of the MDIC patient centered benefit-risk framework. The MDIC Framework examines what patient preference information is and the potential use and value of patient preference information in the regulatory process and across the product development life cycle. The MDIC Framework also includes a catalog of patient preference assessment methods and an agenda for future research to advance the field. This article discusses key concepts in patient preference assessment of particular importance for regulators and researchers that are addressed in the MDIC Framework for patient centered benefit-risk assessment as well as the unique public-private collaboration that led its development. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A precautionary public health protection strategy for the possible risk of childhood leukaemia from exposure to power frequency magnetic fields

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Epidemiological evidence showing a consistent association between the risk of childhood leukaemia and exposure to power frequency magnetic fields has been accumulating. This debate considers the additional precautionary intervention needed to manage this risk, when it exceeds the protection afforded by the exposure guidelines as recommended by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection. Methods The Bradford-Hill Criteria are guidelines for evaluating the scientific evidence that low frequency magnetic fields cause childhood leukaemia. The criteria are used for assessing the strength of scientific evidence and here have been applied to considering the strength of evidence that exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields may increase the risk of childhood leukaemia. The applicability of precaution is considered using the risk management framework outlined in a European Commission (EC) communication on the Precautionary Principle. That communication advises that measures should be proportionate, non-discriminatory, consistent with similar measures already taken, based on an examination of the benefits and costs of action and inaction, and subject to review in the light of new scientific findings. Results The main evidence for a risk is an epidemiological association observed in several studies and meta-analyses; however, the number of highly exposed children is small and the association could be due to a combination of selection bias, confounding and chance. Corroborating experimental evidence is limited insofar as there is no clear indication of harm at the field levels implicated; however, the aetiology of childhood leukaemia is poorly understood. Taking a precautionary approach suggests that low-cost intervention to reduce exposure is appropriate. This assumes that if the risk is real, its impact is likely to be small. It also recognises the consequential cost of any major intervention. The recommendation is controversial in that other interpretations of the data are possible, and low-cost intervention may not fully alleviate the risk. Conclusions The debate shows how the EC risk management framework can be used to apply the Precautionary Principle to small and uncertain public health risks. However, despite the need for evidence-based policy making, many of the decisions remain value driven and therefore subjective. PMID:21054823

Qualitative risk assessment during polymer mortar test specimens preparation - methods comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F.; Sousa, S. P. B.; Arezes, P.; Swuste, P.; Ribeiro, M. C. S.; Baptista, J. S.

2015-05-01

Polymer binder modification with inorganic nanomaterials (NM) could be a potential and efficient solution to control matrix flammability of polymer concrete (PC) materials without sacrificing other important properties. Occupational exposures can occur all along the life cycle of a NM and “nanoproducts” from research through scale-up, product development, manufacturing, and end of life. The main objective of the present study is to analyse and compare different qualitative risk assessment methods during the production of polymer mortars (PM) with NM. The laboratory scale production process was divided in 3 main phases (pre-production, production and post-production), which allow testing the assessment methods in different situations. The risk assessment involved in the manufacturing process of PM was made by using the qualitative analyses based on: French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety method (ANSES); Control Banding Nanotool (CB Nanotool); Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne method (EPFL); Guidance working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN); Istituto Superiore per la Prevenzione e la Sicurezza del Lavoro, Italy method (ISPESL); Precautionary Matrix for Synthetic Nanomaterials (PMSN); and Stoffenmanager Nano. It was verified that the different methods applied also produce different final results. In phases 1 and 3 the risk assessment tends to be classified as medium-high risk, while for phase 2 the more common result is medium level. It is necessary to improve the use of qualitative methods by defining narrow criteria for the methods selection for each assessed situation, bearing in mind that the uncertainties are also a relevant factor when dealing with the risk related to nanotechnologies field.

Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

PubMed

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU).

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Thongsri, Tepwitoon; Axe, Lisa; Tyson, Trevor A

2005-06-01

A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of higher tier studies on the toxicity and risks of neonicotinoids in honeybees. 4. Thiamethoxam.

PubMed

Stephenson, Gladys L; Solomon, Keith R

2017-01-01

A quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE) methodology was used to assess several higher-tier studies on the effects of thiamethoxam (TMX) on honeybees. Assessment endpoints were population size and viability of commercially managed honeybee colonies and quantity of hive products. A higher-tier field toxicology study indicated a no-observed-adverse effect concentration (NOAEC) of 29.5 µg TMX/kg syrup, equivalent to an oral no-observed-adverse-effect-dose (NOAED) of 8.6 ng/bee/day for all responses measured. For exposures via deposition of dust, a conservative no-observed-adverse-effect-rate at the level of the colony was 0.1 g TMX/ha. There was minimal risk to honeybees from exposure to TMX via nectar and pollen from its use as a seed-treatment. For exposures via dust and dust/seed applications, there were no concentrations above the risk values for TMX in nectar and pollen. Although some risks were identified for potential exposures via guttation fluid, this route of exposure is incomplete; no apparent adverse effects were observed in field studies. For exposures via dust/seed and dust/foliar applications, few adverse effects were observed. Considering all lines of evidence, the quality of the studies included in this analysis was variable. However, the results of the studies were consistent and point to the same conclusion. The overall weight of evidence based on many studies indicates that TMX has no adverse effects on viability or survival of the colony. Thus, the overall conclusion is that the treatment of seeds with thiamethoxam, as currently used in good agricultural practices, does not present a significant risk to honeybees at the level of the colony.

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, space radi-ation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We es-timated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration po-tential (φ). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

[Fitness of workers with particular sensitivity to non-ionizing radiation].

PubMed

Moccaldi, R; Grandi, C

2011-01-01

Chapter IV and V of Title VIII of D.Lgs 81/2008, implementing the Directives 2004/40/EC respectively (protection of workers exposed to electromagnetic fields) and 2006/25/EC (protection of workers exposed to artificial optical radiation), make frequent reference to the workers as "at particular risk" namely those workers who, by their biological or pathological characteristics, lifestyles, multiple exposure to other risk factors, may be more susceptible to the effects of electromagnetic fields or optical radiation. The identification of workers with particular sensitivity is essential for health surveillance, in particular regarding the determination of fitness. The operational guidance on Title VIII of D.Lgs 81/2008 drafted by the Italian Technical Coordination for Safety in the workplace of Regions and Autonomous Provinces (Document No. 1-2009), in collaboration with ISPESL and ISS, includes a preliminary identification of the categories of workers considered most susceptible to the risk from exposure to electromagnetic fields and optical radiation. On the basis of this information the authors identified more focused and structured classes of workers to be considered as "particularly sensitive to risk", it is not only related to a specific wavelength, but based on a comprehensive risk assessment in individual exposure situation, with regard to the exposure levels, any multiple exposures, the possibility of adequate personal protection.

Risks of secondary malignancies with heterotopic bone radiation therapy for patients younger than 40 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadieux, Catherine L., E-mail: ccadieux@umail.iu.edu; DesRosiers, Colleen; McMullen, Kevin

Heterotopic ossification (HO) of the bone is defined as a benign condition in which abnormal bone formation occurs in soft tissue. One of the most common prophylactic treatments for HO is radiation therapy (RT). This study retrospectively reviewed 20 patients younger than the age of 40 who received radiation to prevent HO in a single fraction of 7 Gray. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of a second malignancy in these patients by recreating their treatment fields and contouring organs at risk to estimate the radiation dose absorbed by normal tissues outside the radiation treatment field.more » Diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans for each patient were used to recreate treatment fields and to calculate dose to structures of interest. The distance from the field edge to each structure and its depth was recorded. Dose measurements in a water phantom were performed for the range of depths, distances, and field sizes used in the actual treatment plans. Computer-generated doses were compared to estimates based on measurement. The structure dose recorded was the higher dose generated between the 2 methods. Scatter dose was recorded to the rectum, bladder, sigmoid colon, small bowel, ovaries and utero-cervix in female patients, and prostate and gonads in male patients. In some patients, there is considerable dose received by certain organs from scatter because of their proximity to the radiation field. The average dose to the ovarian region was 4.125 Gy with a range of 1.085 to 6.228 Gy. The risk estimate for these patients ranged from 0.16% to 0.93%. The average total lifetime risk estimate for the bladder in all patients is 0.22% and the average total lifetime risk estimate for the remainder organs in all patients is 1.25%. In conclusions, proper shielding created from multileaf collimators (MLCs), blocks, and shields should always be used when possible.« less

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Role of Dosimetry in High-Quality EMI Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-14

wireless communication usage and exposure to different parts of the body (especially for children and foetuses ), including multiple exposure from...Calculation of induced electric fields in pregnant women and in the foetus is urgently needed. Very little computation has been carried out on...advanced models of the pregnant human and the foetus with appropriate anatomical modelling. It is important to assess possible enhanced induction of

Geohazard assessment lifecycle for a natural gas pipeline project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lekkakis, D.; Boone, M. D.; Strassburger, E.; Li, Z.; Duffy, W. P.

2015-09-01

This paper is a walkthrough of the geohazard risk assessment performed for the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) of a planned large-diameter natural gas pipeline, extending from Eastern Europe to Western Asia for a total length of approximately 1,850 km. The geohazards discussed herein include liquefaction-induced pipe buoyancy, cyclic softening, lateral spreading, slope instability, groundwater rise-induced pipe buoyancy, and karst. The geohazard risk assessment lifecycle was comprised of 4 stages: initially a desktop study was carried out to describe the geologic setting along the alignment and to conduct a preliminary assessment of the geohazards. The development of a comprehensive Digital Terrain Model topography and aerial photography data were fundamental in this process. Subsequently, field geohazard mapping was conducted with the deployment of 8 teams of geoprofessionals, to investigate the proposed major reroutes and delve into areas of poor or questionable data. During the third stage, a geotechnical subsurface site investigation was then executed based on the results of the above study and mapping efforts in order to obtain sufficient data tailored for risk quantification. Lastly, all gathered and processed information was overlain into a Geographical Information database towards a final determination of the critical reaches of the pipeline alignment. Input from Subject Matter Experts (SME) in the fields of landslides, karst and fluvial geomorphology was incorporated during the second and fourth stages of the assessment. Their experience in that particular geographical region was key to making appropriate decisions based on engineering judgment. As the design evolved through the above stages, the pipeline corridor was narrowed from a 2-km wide corridor, to a 500-m corridor and finally to a fixed alignment. Where the geohazard risk was high, rerouting of the pipeline was generally selected as a mitigation measure. In some cases of high uncertainty in the assessment, further exploration was proposed. In cases where rerouting was constrained, mitigation via structural measures was proposed. This paper further discusses the cost, schedule and resource challenges of planning and executing such a large-scale geotechnical investigation, the interfaces between the various disciplines involved during the assessment, the innovative tools employed for the field mapping, the classifications developed for mapping landslides, karst geology, and trench excavatability, determining liquefaction stretches and the process for the site localization of the Above Ground Installations (AGI). It finally discusses the objectives of the FEED study in terms of providing a route, a ± 20% project cost estimate and a schedule, and the additional engineering work foreseen to take place in the detailed engineering phase of the project.

Developing Risk Prediction Models for Kidney Injury and Assessing Incremental Value for Novel Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Kerr, Kathleen F.; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G.

2014-01-01

The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients’ risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. PMID:24855282

Epidemiology Characteristics, Methodological Assessment and Reporting of Statistical Analysis of Network Meta-Analyses in the Field of Cancer

PubMed Central

Ge, Long; Tian, Jin-hui; Li, Xiu-xia; Song, Fujian; Li, Lun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ge; Pei, Gai-qin; Qiu, Xia; Yang, Ke-hu

2016-01-01

Because of the methodological complexity of network meta-analyses (NMAs), NMAs may be more vulnerable to methodological risks than conventional pair-wise meta-analysis. Our study aims to investigate epidemiology characteristics, conduction of literature search, methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis process in the field of cancer based on PRISMA extension statement and modified AMSTAR checklist. We identified and included 102 NMAs in the field of cancer. 61 NMAs were conducted using a Bayesian framework. Of them, more than half of NMAs did not report assessment of convergence (60.66%). Inconsistency was assessed in 27.87% of NMAs. Assessment of heterogeneity in traditional meta-analyses was more common (42.62%) than in NMAs (6.56%). Most of NMAs did not report assessment of similarity (86.89%) and did not used GRADE tool to assess quality of evidence (95.08%). 43 NMAs were adjusted indirect comparisons, the methods used were described in 53.49% NMAs. Only 4.65% NMAs described the details of handling of multi group trials and 6.98% described the methods of similarity assessment. The median total AMSTAR-score was 8.00 (IQR: 6.00–8.25). Methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis did not substantially differ by selected general characteristics. Overall, the quality of NMAs in the field of cancer was generally acceptable. PMID:27848997

[An example of the evaluation of risks of repeated movements in pottery plants located in western Liguria].

PubMed

Clerici, P; Gallanelli, R; Magnante, D; Meinero, G; Mattarelli, M; Sarto, D; Zecchi, C

2005-01-01

Pottery manufacturing is typical in western Liguria and it represents one of the most important economical resources of this area. The major part of manufacturers are handicrafts, although some bigger firms have developed industrialized production cycles. Both types of productions, however, require hand work at almost all levels of processing. Most workers are women and a significant part of these are affected by Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. INAIL (Direzione Regionale Liguria) carries on a dedicated program for employers' insurance and Health & Safety implementation but--in order to do so--INAIL needs to achieve more knowledge about risk factors in this field. The aim of this study was to assess CTD risk in two pottery industries located in Albisola: in particular, two productions Cycles equipped with assembly lines have been investigated. The method used for risk assessment was OCRA Index (OCcupational Repetitive Actions), adapted to be applied to pottery industries.

The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

PubMed

McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

2016-10-02

The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

Exploration and risk assessment in female wild house mice (Mus musculus musculus) and two laboratory strains.

PubMed

Augustsson, Hanna; Dahlborn, Kristina; Meyerson, Bengt J

2005-02-15

In an evolutionary prospective, it is possible that female mice have a differential perception of novel events than male mice and use a different behavioural strategy for risk assessment. However, female mice are less studied than male mice in behavioural tests of emotional reactivity. The aim of the present study was to investigate how wild-derived female house mice differ from domesticated female mice in their risk assessment strategy. A total of 46 adult female mice, 14 BALB/c, 16 C57BL/6 and 14 Wild mice were tested in the Concentric Square Field (CSF), Open Field (OF) and Elevated Plus Maze (EPM) at three consecutive days. Parameters from all three tests were categorized according to their relevance to activity, exploration, approach-avoidance and use of open areas-shelter. Principal Component Analysis (PCA-SIMCA) of the animals' behaviour in the CSF arena was performed both for females alone and in comparison with earlier findings in male mice under the same test conditions. The results clearly show that female wild mice had a higher avoidance of open areas than the laboratory strains. There was also a trend indicating differences in exploration and approach-avoidance between female Wild and the laboratory strains. The multivariate test, CSF, was able to detect differences between Wild and laboratory strains in three (exploration, approach-avoidance, open-shelter) of the four functional categories measured. Wild female mice also had a higher frequency of rearing and grooming and a lower duration in the corridors in the CSF. Clear strain differences were found between BALB and C57BL in all tests where BALB generally had higher risk assessment and lower risk taking than C57BL. No general sex differences were found, however the sex differences were greater in Wild mice compared to the laboratory strains.

A risk-based approach for assessing the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material as road sub-base filler material.

PubMed

Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Spagnuolo, Riccardo; Gavasci, Renato; Lombardi, Francesco

2018-01-01

In this work we present an integrated risk-based approach that can be used to evaluate the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material such as incineration bottom ash (BA) as unbound material for road sub-base construction. This approach, which is aimed at assessing potential risks to the groundwater resource (in terms of drinking water quality) and human health associated to the leaching of contaminants from the BA, couples the results of leaching tests for the estimation of source concentrations with the fate and transport models usually adopted in risk assessment procedures. The effects of weathering and of the type of leaching test employed to evaluate eluate concentrations were assessed by carrying out different simulations using the results of laboratory leaching tests. Specifically, pH-dependence and column percolation leaching tests were performed on freshly collected and 1-year naturally weathered BA samples produced from a grate-fired incineration plant treating Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). To evaluate a broad span of possible scenario conditions, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed running 5000 simulations, randomly varying the input parameters within the ranges expected in the field. In nearly all the simulated conditions, the concentrations of contaminants in the groundwater for the specific type of BA tested in this work were well below EU and WHO drinking water quality criteria. Nevertheless, some caution should be paid in the case of the establishment of acidic conditions in the field since in this case the concentration of some elements (i.e. Al, Pb and Zn) is expected to exceed threshold values. In terms of risks to human health, for the considered utilization scenario the probability of exceeding the acceptable reference dose for water ingestion was usually less than 1% (except for Cr and Pb for which the probability was lower than 3.5% and 7%, respectively). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food and Feed Safety Assessment: The Importance of Proper Sampling.

PubMed

Kuiper, Harry A; Paoletti, Claudia

2015-03-24

The general principles for safety and nutritional evaluation of foods and feed and the potential health risks associated with hazardous compounds are described as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and further elaborated in the European Union-funded project Safe Foods. We underline the crucial role of sampling in foods/feed safety assessment. High quality sampling should always be applied to ensure the use of adequate and representative samples as test materials for hazard identification, toxicological and nutritional characterization of identified hazards, as well as for estimating quantitative and reliable exposure levels of foods/feed or related compounds of concern for humans and animals. The importance of representative sampling is emphasized through examples of risk analyses in different areas of foods/feed production. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is recognized as the only framework within which to ensure accuracy and precision of all sampling steps involved in the field-to-fork continuum, which is crucial to monitor foods and feed safety. Therefore, TOS must be integrated in the well-established FAO/WHO risk assessment approach in order to guarantee a transparent and correct frame for the risk assessment and decision making process.

Food and feed safety assessment: the importance of proper sampling.

PubMed

Kuiper, Harry A; Paoletti, Claudia

2015-01-01

The general principles for safety and nutritional evaluation of foods and feed and the potential health risks associated with hazardous compounds are described as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and further elaborated in the European Union-funded project Safe Foods. We underline the crucial role of sampling in foods/feed safety assessment. High quality sampling should always be applied to ensure the use of adequate and representative samples as test materials for hazard identification, toxicological and nutritional characterization of identified hazards, as well as for estimating quantitative and reliable exposure levels of foods/feed or related compounds of concern for humans and animals. The importance of representative sampling is emphasized through examples of risk analyses in different areas of foods/feed production. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is recognized as the only framework within which to ensure accuracy and precision of all sampling steps involved in the field-to-fork continuum, which is crucial to monitor foods and feed safety. Therefore, TOS must be integrated in the well-established FAO/WHO risk assessment approach in order to guarantee a transparent and correct frame for the risk assessment and decision making process.

Integrated field and laboratory tests to evaluate effects of metals-impacted wetlands on amphibians: A case study from Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linder, G.; ,

2003-01-01

Mining activities frequently impact wildlife habitats, and a wide range of habitats may require evaluations of the linkages between wildlife and environmental stressors common to mining activities (e.g., physical alteration of habitat, releases of chemicals such as metals and other inorganic constituents as part of the mining operation). Wetlands, for example, are frequently impacted by mining activities. Within an ecological assessment for a wetland, toxicity evaluations for representative species may be advantageous to the site evaluation, since these species could be exposed to complex chemical mixtures potentially released from the site. Amphibian species common to these transition zones between terrestrial and aquatic habitats are one key biological indicator of exposure, and integrated approaches which involve both field and laboratory methods focused on amphibians are critical to the assessment process. The laboratory and field evaluations of a wetland in western Montana illustrates the integrated approach to risk assessment and causal analysis. Here, amphibians were used to evaluate the potential toxicity associated with heavy metal-laden sediments deposited in a reservoir. Field and laboratory methods were applied to a toxicity assessment for metals characteristic of mine tailings to reduce potential "lab to field" extrapolation errors and provide adaptive management programs with critical site-specific information targeted on remediation.

7 CFR 3415.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... scientific or technical fields to give expert advice, in accordance with the provisions of this part, on the... Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COOPERATIVE STATE RESEARCH, EDUCATION, AND EXTENSION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE BIOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT RESEARCH GRANTS PROGRAM General § 3415.2...

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the evaluation of hypertrophic and infiltrative cardiomyopathies.

PubMed

O'Hanlon, Rory; Pennell, Dudley J

2009-07-01

There is often considerable phenotypic overlap in hypertrophic and infiltrative cardiomyopathies. This overlap creates difficulties, when using routine imaging modalities, in arriving at a conclusive diagnosis. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can make diagnosis easier and more certain. Used with gadolinium contrast agent for tissue characterization, CMR offers a superior field of view and temporal resolution, enabling clinicians to make more confident assessments of etiology. CMR may also be a useful modality for stratifying risk and monitoring treatment responses over time in patients with hypertrophic or infiltrative cardiomyopathies. This article highlights the role of CMR in the assessment and, if relevant, the risk stratification of hypertrophic and infiltrative cardiomyopathies.

Meeting report: international workshop on endocrine disruptors: exposure and potential impact on consumers health.

PubMed

Rousselle, C; Ormsby, J N; Schaefer, B; Lampen, A; Platzek, T; Hirsch-Ernst, K; Warholm, M; Oskarsson, A; Nielsen, P J; Holmer, M L; Emond, C

2013-02-01

The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Anses) hosted a two-day workshop on Endocrine Disruptors: Exposure and Potential Impact on Consumers Health, bringing together participants from international organizations, academia, research institutes and from German, Swedish, Danish and French governmental agencies. The main objective of the workshop was to share knowledge and experiences on endocrine disruptors (ED) exposure and potential impact on consumers' health, to identify current risk assessment practices and knowledge gaps and issue recommendations on research needs and future collaboration. The following topics were reviewed: (1) Definition of ED, (2) endpoints to be considered for Risk assessment (RA) of ED, (3) non-monotonic dose response curves, (4) studies to be considered for RA (regulatory versus academic studies), (5) point of departure and uncertainty factors, (6) exposure assessment, (7) regulatory issues related to ED. The opinions expressed during this workshop reflect day-to-day experiences from scientists, regulators, researchers, and others from many different countries in the fields of risk assessment, and were regarded by the attendees as an important basis for further discussions. Accordingly, the participants underlined the need for more exchange in the future to share experiences and improve the methodology related to risk assessment for endocrine disrupters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender perspective in occupational medicine and workplace risk assessment: state of the art and research agenda.

PubMed

Protano, C; Magrini, A; Vitali, M; Sernia, S

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the current situation and the research agenda in the field of gender differences, both generically in the occupational settings and in the specific activity of risk assessment. Gender is a key determinant of health; the evaluation of documents and scientific literature shows increasing attention to a gender oriented approach, as demonstrated by the development of Gender Medicine, actually cross-oriented in all medical specialties, the publication of books dedicated to this topic and the birth of "ad hoc" new scientific societies and journals. Even today, however, the gender differences are not considered as they should in the context of health disciplines, including occupational medicine. In this respect, in fact, the critical issues to be overcome are numerous, such as the phenomena of "segregation", the exposure to risk factors and their effects, related also to non-professional, socio-cultural features that differentiate male and female workers. All these factors can lead to situations of inequality in health. In fact, the European directives on safety at work repeatedly highlight the attention to gender differences in prevention, assessment and management of risks. In this regard, the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work advocates an approach "more sensitive" to gender in all the processes of assessment and risk management, from the research of all potential sources of risk to the decision-making processes, in order to address the prevention of risks in a holistic manner.

The precautionary principle and/or risk assessment in World Trade Organization decisions: a possible role for risk perception.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard; Carruth, Russellyn S

2004-04-01

Risk analysis has been recognized and validated in World Trade Organization (WTO) decision processes. In recent years the precautionary principle has been proposed as an additional or alternative approach to standard risk assessment. The precautionary principle has also been advocated by some who see it as part of postmodern democracy in which more power is given to the public on health and safety matters relative to the judgments of technocrats. A more cynical view is that the precautionary principle is particularly championed by the European Community as a means to erect trade barriers. The WTO ruling against the European Community's trade barrier against beef from hormone-treated cattle seemed to support the use of risk assessment and appeared to reject the argument that the precautionary principle was a legitimate basis for trade barriers. However, a more recent WTO decision on asbestos contains language suggesting that the precautionary principle, in the form of taking into account public perception, may be acceptable as a basis for a trade barrier. This decision, if followed in future WTO trade disputes, such as for genetically modified foods, raises many issues central to the field of risk analysis. It is too early to tell whether the precautionary principle will become accepted in WTO decisions, either as a supplement or a substitute for standard risk assessment. But it would undermine the value of the precautionary principle if this principle were misused to justify unwarranted trade barriers.

Assessing the Risk of Aquifer Salinization in a Large-Scale Coastal Irrigation Scheme in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccaria, Daniele; Passarella, Giuseppe; D'Agostino, Daniela; Giordano, Raffaele; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Maggi, Sabino; Bruno, Delia; Foglia, Laura

2017-04-01

A research study was conducted on a coastal irrigated agricultural area of southern Italy to assess the risks of aquifer degradation likely resulting from the intensive groundwater pumping from individual farm wells and reduced aquifer recharge. Information were collected both from farmers and delivery system's operators during a survey conducted in 2012 revealing that farmers depend mainly on groundwater with the aim to achieve flexible irrigation management as opposed to the rigid rotational delivery service of surface water supply provided by the local water management agency. The study area is intensively farmed by small land-holding growers with high-value micro-irrigated horticultural crops. Our team appraised the soil and aquifer degradation hazards using a simplified procedure for environmental risk assessment that allowed identifying the risk-generating processes, evaluating the magnitude of impacts, and estimating the overall risks significance. We also collected the stakeholders' perceptions on agricultural water management and use through field interviews, whereas parallel investigations revealed significant aquifer salinity increase during the recent years. As a final step, some preliminary risk mitigation options were appraised by exploring the growers' response to possible changes of irrigation deliveries by the water management agency. The present study integrated multi-annual observations, data interpretation, and modelling efforts, which jointly enabled the analysis of complex water management scenarios and the development of informed decisions. Keywords: Environmental risk assessment, Fuzzy cognitive maps, Groundwater degradation, Seawater intrusion

Synthetic biology between challenges and risks: suggestions for a model of governance and a regulatory framework, based on fundamental rights.

PubMed

Colussi, Ilaria Anna

2013-01-01

This paper deals with the emerging synthetic biology, its challenges and risks, and tries to design a model for the governance and regulation of the field. The model is called of "prudent vigilance" (inspired by the report about synthetic biology, drafted by the U.S. Presidential Commission on Bioethics, 2010), and it entails (a) an ongoing and periodically revised process of assessment and management of all the risks and concerns, and (b) the adoption of policies - taken through "hard law" and "soft law" sources - that are based on the principle of proportionality (among benefits and risks), on a reasonable balancing between different interests and rights at stake, and are oriented by a constitutional frame, which is represented by the protection of fundamental human rights emerging in the field of synthetic biology (right to life, right to health, dignity, freedom of scientific research, right to environment). After the theoretical explanation of the model, its operability is "checked", by considering its application with reference to only one specific risk brought up by synthetic biology - biosecurity risk, i.e. the risk of bioterrorism.

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Air Force Risk Management Practices in Program Acquisition Using Survey Instrument Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-18

Engineering Effectiveness Survey. CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009. Carnegie Mellon University. November 2012. Field, Andy. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS , 3rd...enough into the survey to begin answering questions on risk practices. All of the data statistical analysis will be performed using SPSS . Prior to...probabilistically using distributions for likelihood and impact. Statistical methods like Monte Carlo can more comprehensively evaluate the cost and

Assessing the effectiveness of sustainable land management policies for combating desertification: A data mining approach.

PubMed

Salvati, L; Kosmas, C; Kairis, O; Karavitis, C; Acikalin, S; Belgacem, A; Solé-Benet, A; Chaker, M; Fassouli, V; Gokceoglu, C; Gungor, H; Hessel, R; Khatteli, H; Kounalaki, A; Laouina, A; Ocakoglu, F; Ouessar, M; Ritsema, C; Sghaier, M; Sonmez, H; Taamallah, H; Tezcan, L; de Vente, J; Kelly, C; Colantoni, A; Carlucci, M

2016-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between fine resolution, local-scale biophysical and socioeconomic contexts within which land degradation occurs, and the human responses to it. The research draws on experimental data collected under different territorial and socioeconomic conditions at 586 field sites in five Mediterranean countries (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). We assess the level of desertification risk under various land management practices (terracing, grazing control, prevention of wildland fires, soil erosion control measures, soil water conservation measures, sustainable farming practices, land protection measures and financial subsidies) taken as possible responses to land degradation. A data mining approach, incorporating principal component analysis, non-parametric correlations, multiple regression and canonical analysis, was developed to identify the spatial relationship between land management conditions, the socioeconomic and environmental context (described using 40 biophysical and socioeconomic indicators) and desertification risk. Our analysis identified a number of distinct relationships between the level of desertification experienced and the underlying socioeconomic context, suggesting that the effectiveness of responses to land degradation is strictly dependent on the local biophysical and socioeconomic context. Assessing the latent relationship between land management practices and the biophysical/socioeconomic attributes characterizing areas exposed to different levels of desertification risk proved to be an indirect measure of the effectiveness of field actions contrasting land degradation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Brass, E P; Lofstedt, R; Renn, O

2011-12-01

Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.

Effects of physical and mental stressors on muscle pain.

PubMed

Westgaard, R H

1999-01-01

Physical and mental stressors as risk factors for pain development are discussed. These multifaceted stressor terms are narrowed down so that physical stressors are represented by muscle activity recorded by electromyography (EMG), while mental stress is considered synonymous with psychosocial stress in vocational studies; in experimental studies cognitive stress is used as a model. Pain in the shoulder and neck are focused and related to EMG recordings of activity in the trapezius muscle. Major challenges in this field include proper risk assessment at low physical work loads and criteria for evaluating stress as a risk factor. A 3-factor conceptual model is presented in which the independent dimensions physical work load, mental stress, and individual sensitivity determine the risk of shoulder and neck complaints. It is pointed out that a predominant reduction in physical work load for many jobs and an increasing interaction between work conditions and the general life situation of workers pose particular challenges for risk assessment.

Practical Advancement of Multipollutant Scientific and Risk Assessment Approaches for Ambient Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Johns, Douglas O.; Walker, Katherine; Benromdhane, Souad; Hubbell, Bryan; Ross, Mary; Devlin, Robert B.; Costa, Daniel L.; Greenbaum, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

Objectives: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is working toward gaining a better understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to complex air pollutant mixtures and the key features that drive the toxicity of these mixtures, which can then be used for future scientific and risk assessments. Data sources: A public workshop was held in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 22–24 February 2011, to discuss scientific issues and data gaps related to adopting multipollutant science and risk assessment approaches, with a particular focus on the criteria air pollutants. Expert panelists in the fields of epidemiology, toxicology, and atmospheric and exposure sciences led open discussions to encourage workshop participants to think broadly about available and emerging scientific evidence related to multipollutant approaches to evaluating the health effects of air pollution. Synthesis: Although there is clearly a need for novel research and analytical approaches to better characterize the health effects of multipollutant exposures, much progress can be made by using existing scientific information and statistical methods to evaluate the effects of single pollutants in a multipollutant context. This work will have a direct impact on the development of a multipollutant science assessment and a conceptual framework for conducting multipollutant risk assessments. Conclusions: Transitioning to a multipollutant paradigm can be aided through the adoption of a framework for multipollutant science and risk assessment that encompasses well-studied and ubiquitous air pollutants. Successfully advancing methods for conducting these assessments will require collaborative and parallel efforts between the scientific and environmental regulatory and policy communities. PMID:22645280

Environmental risk assessment for the small tortoiseshell Aglais urticae and a stacked Bt-maize with combined resistances against Lepidoptera and Chrysomelidae in central European agrarian landscapes.

PubMed

Schuppener, Mechthild; Mühlhause, Julia; Müller, Anne-Katrin; Rauschen, Stefan

2012-09-01

The cultivation of Lepidoptera-resistant Bt-maize may affect nontarget butterflies. We assessed the risk posed by event MON89034 × MON88017 (expressing Cry1A.105 and Cry2Ab2 against corn borers) to nontarget Lepidoptera. Using the small tortoiseshell Aglais urticae, a butterfly species common in central Europe, as a test organism we (i) assessed the toxicity of Bt-maize pollen on butterfly larvae; (ii) measured pollen deposition on leaves of the host plant Urtica dioica; (iii) mapped the occurrence and distribution of host plants and larvae in two arable landscapes in Germany during maize anthesis; and (iv) described the temporal occurrence of a 1-year population of A. urticae. (i) Larvae-fed 200 Bt-maize pollen grains/cm(2) had a reduced feeding activity. Significant differences in developmental time existed at pollen densities of 300 Bt-maize pollen grains/cm(2) and in survival at 400 grains/cm(2). (ii) The highest pollen amount found was 212 grains/cm(2) at the field margin. Mean densities were much lower. (iii) In one region, over 50% of A. urticae nests were located within 5 m of a maize field, while in the other, all nests were found in more than 25 m distance to a maize field. (iv) The percentage of larvae developing during maize anthesis was 19% in the study area. The amount of pollen from maize MON89034 × MON88017 found on host plants is unlikely to adversely affect a significant proportion of larvae of A. urticae. This paper concludes that the risk of event MON89034 × MON88017 to populations of this species is negligible. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

An integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of Helleh protected area in Iran.

PubMed

Jozi, S A; Shafiee, M; MoradiMajd, N; Saffarian, S

2012-11-01

This study aims to use integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of the Helleh protected area in Iran. In this research, first, with regard to field visits, interview with natives of the area, and investigation of the environment of the study area, the risks existing in the region were identified. Then, for final identification of the risks, the Delphi method was applied. Analysis and prioritization of risks of the area of Helleh were performed by multi-criteria decision-making methods of Shannon's Entropy and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In this research, risks were assessed by three criteria of severity, probability of occurrence, and vulnerability. Twenty six of the risks were identified which were specified in two groups, natural events and environmental risks. The environmental ones were classified into four groups: physicochemical, biological, social-economic, and cultural. Results of the research showed that the construction of the Rayis-Ali-Delvari Dam at the upper part of the study area threatens the wetland. Water supply for the dam 75 km away from the area with concession of 0.9999 holds the first priority of risk-generating factors. Of the managerial workable solutions suggested controlling the risks, the stopping of the pumping of water from the wetland and observation of hunting season length and permissible type and number of hunting in the area can be mentioned.

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk of heat stress; when coupled with assessments of additional measures (e.g. water and fodder availability) can inform on alternatives that provide satisfactory performance under a wide range of states (e.g. optimal cattle breed, supplemental feed, increased water access).

Novel biomarkers for cardiovascular risk assessment: current status and future directions.

PubMed

MacNamara, James; Eapen, Danny J; Quyyumi, Arshed; Sperling, Laurence

2015-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in the modern world. Traditional risk algorithms may miss up to 20% of CVD events. Therefore, there is a need for new cardiac biomarkers. Many fields of research are dedicated to improving cardiac risk prediction, including genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics. To date, even the most promising biomarkers have only demonstrated modest associations and predictive ability. Few have undergone randomized control trials. A number of biomarkers are targets to new therapies aimed to reduce cardiovascular risk. Currently, some of the most promising risk prediction has been demonstrated with panels of multiple biomarkers. This article reviews the current state and future of proteomic biomarkers and aggregate biomarker panels.

Refined avian risk assessment for chlorpyrifos in the United States.

PubMed

Moore, Dwayne R J; Teed, R Scott; Greer, Colleen D; Solomon, Keith R; Giesy, John P

2014-01-01

Refined risk assessments for birds exposed to flowable and granular formulations ofCPY were conducted for a range of current use patterns in the United States. Overall,the collective evidence from the modeling and field study lines of evidence indicate that flowable and granular CPY do not pose significant risks to the bird communities foraging in agro-ecosystems in the United States. The available information indicates that avian incidents resulting from the legal, registered uses of CPY have been very infrequent since 2002 (see SI Appendix 3). The small number of recent incidents suggests that the current labels for CPY are generally protective of birds.However, incident data are uncertain because of the difficulties associated with finding dead birds in the field and linking any mortality observed to CPY.Plowable CPY is registered for a variety of crops in the United States including alfalfa, brassica vegetables, citrus, corn, cotton, grape, mint, onion, peanut, pome and stone fruits, soybean, sugar beet, sunflower, sweet potato, tree nuts, and wheat under the trade name Lorsban Advanced. The major routes of exposure for birds to flowable CPY were consumption of treated dietary items and drinking water. The Liquid Pesticide Avian Risk Assessment Model (Liquid PARAM) was used to simulate avian ingestion of CPY by these routes of exposure. For acute exposure,Liquid PARAM estimated the maximum retained dose in each of 20 birds on each of1,000 fields that were treated with CPY over the 60-d period following initial application.The model used a 1-h time step. For species lacking acceptable acute oral toxicity data (all focal species except northern bobwhite (C. virginianus) and redwinged blackbird (A. phoeniceus)), a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach was used to generate hypothetical dose-response curves assuming high, median and low sensitivity to CPY. For acute risk, risk curves were generated for each use pattern and exposure scenario. The risk curves show the relationship between exceedence probability and percent mortality. The results of the Liquid PARAM modeling exercise indicate that flow able CPY poses an acute risk to some bird species, particularly those species that are highly sensitive and that forage extensively in crops with high maximum application rates (e.g., grapefruit, orange). Overall, most bird species would not experience significant mortality as a result of exposure to flowable CPY.The results of a number of field studies conducted at application rates comparable to those on the Lorsban Advanced label indicate that flowable CPY rarely causes avian mortality. The results of the field studies suggest that Liquid PARAM is likely over-estimating acute risk to birds for flowable CPY.For chronic exposure, Liquid PARAM estimated the maximum total daily intake (TDI) over a user-specified exposure duration (28-d in the case of CPY).The maximum average TDI was compared to the chronic NOEL and LOEL from the most sensitive species tested for CPY, the mallard. This comparison was done for each of the 20 birds in each of the 1000 fields simulated in Liquid PARAM.The outpu· ~ are estimates of the probabilities of exceeding the NOEL and LOEL.Liquid PAkAM did not predict significant adverse effects resulting from chronic exposure to flowable CPY. The small number of incidents (2) involving CPY reported since 2002 suggests that the current labels for CPY are generally protective of birds.Granular CPY is registered for a wide variety of crops including brassica vegetables, corn, onion, peanut, sugar beet, sunflower, and tobacco under the trade name Lorsban 15G. Consumption of grit is required by many birds to aid in digestion of hard dietary items such as seeds and insects. Because CPY granules are in the same size range as natural grit particles consumed by birds, there is a potential for birds to mistakenly ingest granular CPY instead of natural grit. We developed the Granular Pesticide Avian Risk Model (GranPARAM) to simulate grit ingestion behavior by birds. The model accounts for proportion of time that birds forage for grit in treated fields, relative proportions of natural grit versus pesticide granules onthe surface of treated fields, rates of ingestion of grit, attractiveness of pesticide granules relative to natural grit and so on. For CPY, each model simulation included20 birds on each of 1,000 fields to capture variability in rates of ingestion of grit and for aging behavior between birds within a focal species, and variability in soil composition between fields for the selected use pattern. The estimated dose for each birdwas compared with randomly chosen doses from relevant dose-response curves forCPY. Our analysis for a wide variety of use patterns on the Lorsban 15G label found that granular CPY poses little risk of causing mortality to bird species that frequent treated fields immediately after application. The predictions of the model have been confirmed in several avian field studies conducted with Lorsban 15G at application rates similar to or exceeding maximum application rates on the Lorsban 15G label.

Thermal Desorption Capability Development for Enhanced On-site Health Risk Assessment: HAPSITE (registered trademark) ER Passive Sampling in the Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-07

Field-Portable Gas Chromatograph-Mass Spectrometer.” Forensic Toxicol, 2006, 24, 17-22. Smith, P. “Person-Portable Gas Chromatography : Rapid Temperature...bench-top Gas Chromatograph-Mass Spectrometer (GC-MS) system (ISQ). Nine sites were sampled and analyzed for compounds using Environmental Protection...extraction methods for Liquid Chromatography -MS (LC- MS). Additionally, TD is approximately 1000X more sensitive, requires minimal sample preparation

Validation of site-specific soil Ni toxicity thresholds with independent ecotoxicity and biogeochemistry data for elevated soil Ni.

PubMed

Hale, Beverley; Gopalapillai, Yamini; Pellegrino, Amanda; Jennett, Tyson; Kikkert, Julie; Lau, Wilson; Schlekat, Christian; McLaughlin, Mike J

2017-12-01

The Existing Substances Regulation Risk Assessments by the European Union (EU RA) generated new toxicity data for soil organisms exposed to Ni added to sixteen field-collected soils with low background concentration of metals and varying physico-chemical soil characteristics. Using only effective cation exchange capacity (eCEC) as a bioavailability correction, chronic toxicity of Ni in soils with a wide range of characteristics could be predicted within a factor of two. The objective of the present study was to determine whether this was also the case for three independent data sets of Ni toxicity thresholds. Two of the data sets were from Community Based Risk Assessments in Port Colborne ON, and Sudbury ON (Canada) for soils containing elevated concentrations of Ni, Co and Cu arising from many decades of Ni mining, smelting and refining. The third data set was the Metals in Asia study of soluble Ni added to field soils in China. These data yielded 72 leached and aged EC 10 /NOEC values for soil Ni, for arthropods, higher plants and woodlot structure and function. These were reduced to nine most sensitive single or geometric mean species/function endpoints, none of which were lower than the HC 5 predicted for a soil with an eCEC of 20 cmol/kg. Most of these leached and aged EC 10 /NOEC values were from soils co-contaminated with Cu, in some cases at its median HC 5 as predicted by the EU RA from soil characteristics. We conclude that the EU RA is protective of Ni toxicity to higher-tier ecological endpoints, including in mixture with Cu, before the assessment factor of 2 is applied. We suggest that for prospective risk assessment, the bioavailability based PNEC (HC 5 /2) be used as a conservative screen, but for retrospective and site-specific risk assessment, the bioavailability based HC 5 is sufficient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation between residential magnetic fields, light-at-night, and nocturnal urine melatonin levels in women: Volume 1 -- Background and purpose, methods, results, discussion. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaune, W.; Davis, S.; Stevens, R.

Scientists have postulated a link between exposure to magnetic fields and reduced blood melatonin levels. This EPRI study was designed to supplement a National Cancer Institute study (NCI-BC) of magnetic fields, light-at-night, and the risk of breast cancer. By expanding the exposure assessment of the NCI-BC and collecting data on urine melatonin levels, this project provides new insight into a possible magnetic field-melatonin link. It has been proposed that exposure to 60-Hz (power frequency) magnetic fields may increase the risk of breast cancer by suppressing the normal nocturnal rise in melatonin production in the pineal gland. It remains unknown whethermore » the human pineal gland is reproducibly responsive or sensitive to magnetic field exposure, and whether such exposures could alter elements of the endogenous hormonal environment in women that might be important in the etiology of breast cancer. The objective of this research was to investigate whether exposure to power-frequency magnetic fields and/or light-at-night is associated with levels of the primary urinary melatonin metabolite in women without a history of breast cancer.« less

RADIATION DOSE AND RISK TO RECREATIONAL FISHERMEN FROM INGESTION OF FISH CAUGHT NEAR EIGHT OIL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MEINHOLD,A.F.; HOLTZMAN,S.

1998-06-01

Offshore production of oil and gas is accompanied by a saline wastewater, called produced water. Produced water discharges to the Gulf of Mexico often contain elevated concentrations of radionuclides that occur naturally in the geologic reservoir along with the oil and gas. These radionuclides may accumulate in organisms that live near offshore oil and gas structures. Because recreational fishing in the Gulf of Mexico is concentrated near oil and gas platforms, there is the potential for increased risks to recreational fishermen from the ingestion of radionuclides in fish caught near produced water discharges. This analysis investigated the potential risk tomore » recreational fishermen from radium and lead-210 in offshore produced water discharges to the Gulf of Mexico. The assessment used data collected at eight discharging offshore platforms and two reference locations. These data were collected in a USDOE funded project titled ``Environmental and Economic Assessment of Discharges from Gulf of Mexico Region Oil and Gas Operations'', here called the USDOE Field Study. The risk assessments were done to support risk managers in developing regulations and permits for offshore discharges of produced water.« less

Cannabis use and age at onset of symptoms in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Dragt, S; Nieman, D H; Schultze-Lutter, F; van der Meer, F; Becker, H; de Haan, L; Dingemans, P M; Birchwood, M; Patterson, P; Salokangas, R K R; Heinimaa, M; Heinz, A; Juckel, G; Graf von Reventlow, H; French, P; Stevens, H; Ruhrmann, S; Klosterkötter, J; Linszen, D H

2012-01-01

Numerous studies have found a robust association between cannabis use and the onset of psychosis. Nevertheless, the relationship between cannabis use and the onset of early (or, in retrospect, prodromal) symptoms of psychosis remains unclear. The study focused on investigating the relationship between cannabis use and early and high-risk symptoms in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis. Prospective multicenter, naturalistic field study with an 18-month follow-up period in 245 help-seeking individuals clinically at high risk. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to assess their cannabis use. Age at onset of high risk or certain early symptoms was assessed retrospectively with the Interview for the Retrospective Assessment of the Onset of Schizophrenia. Younger age at onset of cannabis use or a cannabis use disorder was significantly related to younger age at onset of six symptoms (0.33 < r(s) < 0.83, 0.004 < P < 0.001). Onset of cannabis use preceded symptoms in most participants. Our results provide support that cannabis use plays an important role in the development of psychosis in vulnerable individuals. Cannabis use in early adolescence should be discouraged. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Innovative neuro-fuzzy system of smart transport infrastructure for road traffic safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beinarovica, Anna; Gorobetz, Mikhail; Levchenkov, Anatoly

2017-09-01

The proposed study describes applying of neural network and fuzzy logic in transport control for safety improvement by evaluation of accidents’ risk by intelligent infrastructure devices. Risk evaluation is made by following multiple-criteria: danger, changeability and influence of changes for risk increasing. Neuro-fuzzy algorithms are described and proposed for task solution. The novelty of the proposed system is proved by deep analysis of known studies in the field. The structure of neuro-fuzzy system for risk evaluation and mathematical model is described in the paper. The simulation model of the intelligent devices for transport infrastructure is proposed to simulate different situations, assess the risks and propose the possible actions for infrastructure or vehicles to minimize the risk of possible accidents.

A refined ecological risk assessment for California red-legged frog, Delta smelt, and California tiger salamander exposed to malathion.

PubMed

Clemow, Yvonne H; Manning, Gillian E; Breton, Roger L; Winchell, Michael F; Padilla, Lauren; Rodney, Sara I; Hanzas, John P; Estes, Tammara L; Budreski, Katherine; Toth, Brent N; Hill, Katie L; Priest, Colleen D; Teed, R Scott; Knopper, Loren D; Moore, Dwayne Rj; Stone, Christopher T; Whatling, Paul

2018-03-01

The California red-legged frog (CRLF), Delta smelt (DS), and California tiger salamander (CTS) are 3 species listed under the United States Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA), all of which inhabit aquatic ecosystems in California. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has conducted deterministic screening-level risk assessments for these species potentially exposed to malathion, an organophosphorus insecticide and acaricide. Results from our screening-level analyses identified potential risk of direct effects to DS as well as indirect effects to all 3 species via reduction in prey. Accordingly, for those species and scenarios in which risk was identified at the screening level, we conducted a refined probabilistic risk assessment for CRLF, DS, and CTS. The refined ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted using best available data and approaches, as recommended by the 2013 National Research Council (NRC) report "Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides." Refined aquatic exposure models including the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD), the Variable Volume Water Model (VVWM), the Exposure Analysis Modeling System (EXAMS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to generate estimated exposure concentrations (EECs) for malathion based on worst-case scenarios in California. Refined effects analyses involved developing concentration-response curves for fish and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for fish and aquatic invertebrates. Quantitative risk curves, field and mesocosm studies, surface-water monitoring data, and incident reports were considered in a weight-of-evidence approach. Currently, labeled uses of malathion are not expected to result in direct effects to CRLF, DS or CTS, or indirect effects due to effects on fish and invertebrate prey. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:224-239. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

A new remote hazard and risk assessment framework for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David R.; McKinney, Daene C.; Lala, Jonathan M.; Byers, Alton C.; Watson, C. Scott

2016-08-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure due to their potential to rapidly unleash stored lake water. The most common triggers of these GLOFs are mass movement entering the lake and/or the self-destruction of the terminal moraine due to hydrostatic pressures or a buried ice core. This study initially uses previous qualitative and quantitative assessments to understand the hazards associated with eight glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya that are widely considered to be highly dangerous. The previous assessments yield conflicting classifications with respect to each glacial lake, which spurred the development of a new holistic, reproducible, and objective approach based solely on remotely sensed data. This remote hazard assessment analyzes mass movement entering the lake, the stability of the moraine, and lake growth in conjunction with a geometric GLOF to determine the downstream impacts such that the present and future risk associated with each glacial lake may be quantified. The new approach is developed within a hazard, risk, and management action framework with the aim that this remote assessment may guide future field campaigns, modeling efforts, and ultimately risk-mitigation strategies. The remote assessment was found to provide valuable information regarding the hazards faced by each glacial lake and results were discussed within the context of the current state of knowledge to help guide future efforts.

Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

PubMed

Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

2017-08-01

Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Survey of Knowledge, Individual Perceived Risk, General Perceived Risk, and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Hepatitis B among Students in the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014.

PubMed

Karimiankakolaki, Zohreh; Baghianimoghadam, Mohammad Hossein; Gerayllo, Sakineh; Sheikh Samani, Nadia; Hadipour, Hajar

2016-07-01

Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver disease, and medical students are a risk group for the disease given their future occupations. The aim of the study was to assess of predictors of hepatitis B in the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 300 students from the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University. The students answered questionnaires with items covering demographic characteristics, individual knowledge, public risk perception, perceived personal risk, and behavioral intentions regarding hepatitis B. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 18 software. The mean knowledge score of the students was 4.77 ± 1.71, the mean public risk perception score was 24.22 ± 3.44, the mean perceived personal risk score was 6.51 ± 1.97, and the mean behavioral intention score was 12.06 ± 2.97. There were significant differences in the mean knowledge scores in terms of gender, level of awareness, and level of education. There were also differences in the mean behavioral intention scores in terms of gender and field of study, the mean perceived personal risk scores in terms of level of education and field of study, and the mean public risk perception scores in terms of field of study. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to implement educational intervention in order to allow students to identify risk factors and overcome barriers to understanding the implications of the disease in this context.

A Survey of Knowledge, Individual Perceived Risk, General Perceived Risk, and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Hepatitis B among Students in the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014

PubMed Central

Karimiankakolaki, Zohreh; Baghianimoghadam, Mohammad Hossein; Gerayllo, Sakineh; Sheikh Samani, Nadia; Hadipour, Hajar

2016-01-01

Background Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver disease, and medical students are a risk group for the disease given their future occupations. Objectives The aim of the study was to assess of predictors of hepatitis B in the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted with 300 students from the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University. The students answered questionnaires with items covering demographic characteristics, individual knowledge, public risk perception, perceived personal risk, and behavioral intentions regarding hepatitis B. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 18 software. Results The mean knowledge score of the students was 4.77 ± 1.71, the mean public risk perception score was 24.22 ± 3.44, the mean perceived personal risk score was 6.51 ± 1.97, and the mean behavioral intention score was 12.06 ± 2.97. There were significant differences in the mean knowledge scores in terms of gender, level of awareness, and level of education. There were also differences in the mean behavioral intention scores in terms of gender and field of study, the mean perceived personal risk scores in terms of level of education and field of study, and the mean public risk perception scores in terms of field of study. Conclusions According to the results of this study, it is necessary to implement educational intervention in order to allow students to identify risk factors and overcome barriers to understanding the implications of the disease in this context. PMID:27651804

Identifying and Reconciling Risk Across Sectors: The implications of differing views of risk in climate policy, environmental conservation, and the finance sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johns, T.; Henderson, I.; Thoumi, G.

2014-12-01

The presence and valuation of risk are commonalities that link the diverse fields of climate change science and policy, environmental conservation, and the financial/investment sector. However, the definition and perception of risks vary widely across these critically linked fields. The "Stranded Asset" concept developed by organizations like the Carbon Tracker Initiative begins to elucidate the links between climate change risk and financial risk. Stranded assets are those that may lose some or all value from climate disruption, changes in demand-side dynamics and/or a more stringent regulatory environment. In order to shift financial flows toward climate change mitigation, emissions-heavy activities that present finance and investment opportunities must also be assessed for their GHG-asset risk attributes in terms of their contribution and vulnerability to climate disruption, as well as other environmental externalities. Until the concept of GHG-asset risk in investment is reconciled with the risks of climate change and environmental conservation, it will not be possible to shift business and financial practices, and unlock private sector resources to address the climate change and conservation challenge. UNEP-FI is researching the application of the concept of Value-atRisk (VaR) to explore links between the financial sector and deforestation/REDD+. The research will test the hypothesis that climate risk is a financial risk, and propose tools to identify and quantify risks associated with unsustainable land-use investments. The tools developed in this research will help investors, managers and governments assess their exposures to the material REDD-related risks in their portfolios. This will inform the development of 'zero net deforestation' investment indices to allow investors to lower the 'deforestation' exposure of 'benchmark' financial indices used by many of the largest money managers. A VaR analysis will be performed, combining the notion of externality with the traditional approach of external (exogenous) risk analysis. The VaR component introduces probabilities for different scenarios and may ultimately lead to a full distribution for the holistic losses. These distributions are non-parametric and non-linear since climate change is an "event-risk".

A divide and conquer approach to cope with uncertainty, human health risk, and decision making in contaminant hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Bolster, Diogo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Nowak, Wolfgang

2011-05-01

Assessing health risk in hydrological systems is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in the fields of hydrology and public health and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties and variabilities present in hydrological, physiological, and human behavioral parameters. Despite significant theoretical advancements in stochastic hydrology, there is still a dire need to further propagate these concepts to practical problems and to society in general. Following a recent line of work, we use fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis and to support related decision and management problems. Fault trees allow us to decompose the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural divide and conquer approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance, and stage of analysis. Three differences are highlighted in this paper when compared to previous works: (1) The fault tree proposed here accounts for the uncertainty in both hydrological and health components, (2) system failure within the fault tree is defined in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies that used fault trees used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows us to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Perception of occupational risk by rural workers in an area of central Italy.

PubMed

Antonucci, A; Siciliano, E; Ladiana, D; Boscolo, P; Di Sivo, M

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the subjective perception of risks for rural workers in Abruzzo, an area of central Italy. A group of 273 workers were asked to fill in a questionnaire which included, apart from general information, questions relative to six different types of risks normally found in the field of agriculture. The types of risks considered were: falling from a height, manually moving loads, overturning/accident whilst driving an agricultural tractor, noise and vibration, use of pesticides, the risk of being cut/injured. The workers were requested to assess, on a scale of 1 to 3, both the probability of an accident taking place and the consequent damage which could result from each of the risks considered. The assessment of the risks provided by the workers was related to the objective assessment of the risks carried out by the study group, also on the basis of objective data provided by INAIL (Italian insurance company) indexes, to highlight the eventual under/over estimations of risk. Furthermore, the possible correlation was evaluated between having received specific training regarding work safety and the workers perception of the risk. The results showed that approximately 11 percent of the workers do not consider their job as being dangerous; the risk perceived by the workers is higher for accidents that cause an immediate injury compared to those which cause professional illnesses, except the risk deriving from noise/vibrations. A direct correlation was found between the job as being dangerous and having attended courses on accident prevention.

An inexpensive, temporally-integrated system for monitoring occurrence and biological effects of aquatic contaminants in the field

EPA Science Inventory

Assessment of potential ecological risks of complex contaminant mixtures in the environment requires integrated chemical and biological approaches. Instrumental analysis of environmental samples alone can identify contaminants, but provides only limited insights as to possible a...

FIELD TEST OF THE PROPOSED REVISED HAZARD RANKING SYSTEM (HRS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA) requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revise the Hazard Ranking System (HRS) so that, to the maximum extent feasible, it accurately assesses the relative risks associated with actual or potent...

Releasable Asbestos Field Sampler and a Breathing Zone Model for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Asbestos aerosolization (or releasability) is the potential for asbestos structures to become airborne when the source is disturbed. The source can be naturally occurring asbestos in soil, mine tailings in the soil at brownfield sites, vermiculite attic insulation in indoor envi...

EPA'S FIELD DEMONSTRATION OF INNOVATIVE CAPPING TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF CONTAMINATED SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Research on capping technologies is directed at assessing the effectiveness of innovative capping materials, factors that control contaminant release at the sediment-water interface, installation of cap, resuspension mechanism, and gas ebullition. U.S. EPA's Land Remediation and ...

Application of Statistics in Engineering Technology Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhan, Wei; Fink, Rainer; Fang, Alex

2010-01-01

Statistics is a critical tool for robustness analysis, measurement system error analysis, test data analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, and many other fields in the engineering world. Traditionally, however, statistics is not extensively used in undergraduate engineering technology (ET) programs, resulting in a major disconnect from industry…

Final report on the portable computerized assessments of sleepy drivers in operational environments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-01

Excessive daytime sleepiness underpins a large number of the reported motor vehicle crashes. Fair and accurate field : measures are needed to identify at-risk drivers who have been identified as potentially driving in a sleep deprived state on : the ...

OYSTER GROUNDS, A SUPERIOR HABITAT FOR SMALL, SEDIMENT-DWELLING INVERTEBRATES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a programmatic effort to determine estuarine habitat values for ecological risk assessments, quantitative field studies of small, sediment-dwelling invertebrates were conducted in Willapa Bay, WA in July 1998 and Tillamook Bay, OR in July 1999. The six habitats includ...

STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF SUBGRID POLLUTANT VARIABILITY IN CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes a tool for investigating and describing fine scale spatial variability in model concentration fields with the goal of improving the use of air quality models for driving exposure modeling to assess human risk to hazardous air pollutants or air toxics. Region...

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE EFFECTS OF SOLAR RADIATION ON AMPHIBIANS

EPA Science Inventory

Recent studies have demonstrated that exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can cause mortality and increase the occurrence of eye and limb malformation in some species of amphibians. Based on these reports and various field observations, it has been hypothesized that UV...

7 CFR 3415.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... to give expert advice, in accordance with the provisions of this part, on the scientific and... BIOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT RESEARCH GRANTS PROGRAM General § 3415.2 Definitions. As used in this part: (a) Ad... scientific or technical fields to render special expert advice, through written evaluations of grant...

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GENOMIC ON EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Advances in molecular technology have led to the elucidation of full genomic sequences of several multicellular organisms, ranging from namatodes to man. The related molecular fields of proteomics and metabolomics are now beginning to advance rapidly as well. In addition, advan...

Asilomar moments: formative framings in recombinant DNA and solar climate engineering research.

PubMed

Schäfer, Stefan; Low, Sean

2014-12-28

We examine the claim that in governance for solar climate engineering research, and especially field tests, there is no need for external governance beyond existing mechanisms such as peer review and environmental impact assessments that aim to assess technically defined risks to the physical environment. By drawing on the historical debate on recombinant DNA research, we show that defining risks is not a technical question but a complex process of narrative formation. Governance emerges from within, and as a response to, narratives of what is at stake in a debate. In applying this finding to the case of climate engineering, we find that the emerging narrative differs starkly from the narrative that gave meaning to rDNA technology during its formative period, with important implications for governance. While the narrative of rDNA technology was closed down to narrowly focus on technical risks, that of climate engineering continues to open up and includes social, political and ethical issues. This suggests that, in order to be legitimate, governance must take into account this broad perception of what constitutes the relevant issues and risks of climate engineering, requiring governance that goes beyond existing mechanisms that focus on technical risks. Even small-scale field tests with negligible impacts on the physical environment warrant additional governance as they raise broader concerns that go beyond the immediate impacts of individual experiments. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Handbook of ecotoxicology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John

1995-01-01

The Handbook of Ecotoxicology offers 34 chapters with contributions from over 50 selected international experts. The book is divided into four major sections: I. Quantifying and Measuring Ecotoxicological Effects, II. Contaminant Sources and Effects, III. Case Histories and Ecosystem Surveys, and IV. Methods for Making Estimates and Predictability in Ecotoxicology. Concepts and methodology are presented for many types of aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity test protocols for both controlled and field assessments. Chapters are offered on such diverse topics as sediment and soil ecotoxicity, landscape indicators, biomonitoring, and use of current bioindicators. The roles of deforestation and global warming, pathogens and disease in ecotoxicology, abiotic factors, urban runoff, predictive ecotoxicology, population modeling, and restoration ecology are discussed. This book was designed to serve as a reference book for students entering the fields of ecotoxicology, aquatic toxicology, terrestrial wildlife toxicology, and other environmental sciences. Many portions of this handbook will serve as a convenient reference text for established investigators, resource managers, and those involved in risk assessment and risk management within regulatory agencies and the private sector.

A Golden Ticket to Future Occupational and Environmental Health Monitoring

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

by the BE career field, an assessment of the regulatory monitoring requirements and current detection capabilities was critical . The next step in...research criteria due to the inability to predict the cost of production for these detection systems. Until a standardization of mass scale production...the health risk assessment process and is critical to keeping the base population safe from occupational and environmental exposures. The predominant

Defense Acquisition Workforce: Actions Needed to Guide Planning Efforts and Improve Workforce Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

positions. However, 6 of the 13 acquisition career fields, including 3 priority career fields—contracting, business and engineering—did not meet growth...the competency assessment process and challenges. The leaders we interviewed were from the business ; program management; contracting; engineering...Complete Assessments to Improve Future Civilian Strategic Workforce Plans, GAO-12- 1014 (Washington, D.C.: September 27, 2012). 5GAO, High-Risk Series: An

A framework for performance and data quality assessment of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) systems in health care settings.

PubMed

van der Togt, Remko; Bakker, Piet J M; Jaspers, Monique W M

2011-04-01

RFID offers great opportunities to health care. Nevertheless, prior experiences also show that RFID systems have not been designed and tested in response to the particular needs of health care settings and might introduce new risks. The aim of this study is to present a framework that can be used to assess the performance of RFID systems particularly in health care settings. We developed a framework describing a systematic approach that can be used for assessing the feasibility of using an RFID technology in a particular healthcare setting; more specific for testing the impact of environmental factors on the quality of RFID generated data and vice versa. This framework is based on our own experiences with an RFID pilot implementation in an academic hospital in The Netherlands and a literature review concerning RFID test methods and current insights of RFID implementations in healthcare. The implementation of an RFID system within the blood transfusion chain inside a hospital setting was used as a show case to explain the different phases of the framework. The framework consists of nine phases, including an implementation development plan, RFID and medical equipment interference tests, data accuracy- and data completeness tests to be run in laboratory, simulated field and real field settings. The potential risks that RFID technologies may bring to the healthcare setting should be thoroughly evaluated before they are introduced into a vital environment. The RFID performance assessment framework that we present can act as a reference model to start an RFID development, engineering, implementation and testing plan and more specific, to assess the potential risks of interference and to test the quality of the RFID generated data potentially influenced by physical objects in specific health care environments. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-04-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

PubMed Central

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-01-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided. PMID:24834325

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

Measuring pesticide ecological and health risks in West African agriculture to establish an enabling environment for sustainable intensification.

PubMed

Jepson, P C; Guzy, M; Blaustein, K; Sow, M; Sarr, M; Mineau, P; Kegley, S

2014-04-05

We outline an approach to pesticide risk assessment that is based upon surveys of pesticide use throughout West Africa. We have developed and used new risk assessment models to provide, to our knowledge, the first detailed, geographically extensive, scientifically based analysis of pesticide risks for this region. Human health risks from dermal exposure to adults and children are severe enough in many crops to require long periods of up to three weeks when entry to fields should be restricted. This is impractical in terms of crop management, and regulatory action is needed to remove these pesticides from the marketplace. We also found widespread risks to terrestrial and aquatic wildlife throughout the region, and if these results were extrapolated to all similar irrigated perimeters in the Senegal and Niger River Basins, they suggest that pesticides could pose a significant threat to regional biodiversity. Our analyses are presented at the regional, national and village levels to promote regulatory advances but also local risk communication and management. Without progress in pesticide risk management, supported by participatory farmer education, West African agriculture provides a weak context for the sustainable intensification of agricultural production or for the adoption of new crop technologies.

Magnitude of cyantraniliprole residues in tomato following open field application: pre-harvest interval determination and risk assessment.

PubMed

Malhat, Farag; Kasiotis, Konstantinos M; Shalaby, Shehata

2018-02-05

Cyantraniliprole is an anthranilic diamide insecticide, belonging to the ryanoid class, with a broad range of applications against several pests. In the presented work, a reliable analytical technique employing high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array detector (HPLC-DAD) for analyzing cyantraniliprole residues in tomato was developed. The method was then applied to field-incurred tomato samples collected after applications under open field conditions. The latter aimed to ensure the safe application of cyantraniliprole to tomato and contribute the derived residue data to the risk assessment under field conditions. Sample preparation involved a single step extraction with acetonitrile and sodium chloride for partitioning. The extract was purified utilizing florisil as cleanup reagent. The developed method was further evaluated by comparing the analytical results with those obtained using the QuEChERS technique. The novel method outbalanced QuEChERS regarding matrix interferences in the analysis, while it met all guideline criteria. Hence, it showed excellent linearity over the assayed concentration and yielded satisfactory recovery rate in the range of 88.9 to 96.5%. The half-life of degradation of cyantraniliprole was determined at 2.6 days. Based on the Codex MRL, the pre-harvest interval (PHI) for cyantraniliprole on tomato was 3 days, after treatment at the recommended dose. To our knowledge, the present work provides the first record on PHI determination of cyantraniliprole in tomato under open field conditions in Egypt and the broad Mediterranean region.

Lower risk taking and exploratory behavior in alcohol-preferring sP rats than in alcohol non-preferring sNP rats in the multivariate concentric square field (MCSF) test.

PubMed

Roman, Erika; Colombo, Giancarlo

2009-12-14

The present investigation continues previous behavioral profiling studies of selectively bred alcohol-drinking and alcohol non-drinking rats. In this study, alcohol-naïve adult Sardinian alcohol-preferring (sP) and non-preferring (sNP) rats were tested in the multivariate concentric square field (MCSF) test. The MCSF test has an ethoexperimental approach and measures general activity, exploration, risk assessment, risk taking, and shelter seeking in laboratory rodents. The multivariate design enables behavioral profiling in one and the same test situation. Age-matched male Wistar rats were included as a control group. Five weeks after the first MCSF trial, a repeated testing was done to explore differences in acquired experience. The results revealed distinct differences in exploratory strategies and behavioral profiles between sP and sNP rats. The sP rats were characterized by lower activity, lower exploratory drive, higher risk assessment, and lower risk taking behavior than in sNP rats. In the repeated trial, risk-taking behavior was almost abolished in sP rats. When comparing the performance of sP and sNP rats with that of Wistar rats, the principal component analysis revealed that the sP rats were the most divergent group. The vigilant behavior observed in sP rats with low exploratory drive and low risk-taking behavior is interpreted here as high innate anxiety-related behaviors and may be related to their propensity for high voluntary alcohol intake and preference. We suggest that the different lines of alcohol-preferring rats with different behavioral characteristics constitute valuable animal models that mimic the heterogeneity in human alcohol dependence.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thrall, K.D.

The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the ``Exposure-to- Risk`` monitoring system in an actual occupational environment. The system is a unique combination of existing hardware with proprietary software to create an integrated means of assessing occupational exposures to volatile organic compounds. One component of this system utilizes a portable mass spectrometer developed by Teledyne Electronic Technologies. Integration of the system was accomplished under Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funding. Commercialization of the system will take place following demonstration in an actual occupational environment, and will include, in part, Teledyne Electronic Technologies. The Exposure-to-Risk monitoring system will benefitmore » DOE by overcoming present-day limitations in worker health protection monitoring. There are numerous sites within the` DOE complex where many different hazardous chemicals are used on a routine basis. These chemicals range from paint stripers and cleaning solvents to chemical warfare agents, each having its own degree of potential adverse health risk to a worker. Thus, a real concern for DOE is to ensure that a worker is properly monitored to assess any adverse health risk from exposure to potentially hazardous chemicals. With current industrial hygiene technologies, this is an arduous task. The Exposure-to-Risk monitoring system integrates a patented breath-inlet device connecting a subject`s exhaled breath directly with a field-portable mass spectrometer with physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to estimate the target tissue dose following a chemical exposure. Estimation of the adverse health risk prediction follows from the exposure/dose calculation based on currently accepted methodologies. This new system can determine, in the field, the possible adverse health risks on a daily basis to an individual worker.« less

Reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making at a lower cost: In-situ pXRF assessment of metal-contaminated sites.

PubMed

Rouillon, Marek; Taylor, Mark P; Dong, Chenyin

2017-10-01

This study evaluates the in-situ use of field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) for metal-contaminated site assessments, and assesses the advantages of increased sampling to reduce risk, and increase confidence of decision making at a lower cost. Five metal-contaminated sites were assessed using both in-situ pXRF and ex-situ inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analyses at various sampling resolutions. Twenty second in-situ pXRF measurements of Mn, Zn and Pb were corrected using a subset of parallel ICP-MS measurements taken at each site. Field and analytical duplicates revealed sampling as the major contributor (>95% variation) to measurement uncertainties. This study shows that increased sampling led to several benefits including more representative site characterisation, higher soil-metal mapping resolution, reduced uncertainty around the site mean, and reduced sampling uncertainty. Real time pXRF data enabled efficient, on-site decision making for further judgemental sampling, without the need to return to the site. Additionally, in-situ pXRF was more cost effective than the current approach of ex-situ sampling and ICP-MS analysis, even with higher sampling at each site. Lastly, a probabilistic site assessment approach was applied to demonstrate the advantages of integrating estimated measurement uncertainties into site reporting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting urinary incontinence in women in later life: A systematic review.

PubMed

Troko, Joy; Bach, Fiona; Toozs-Hobson, Philip

2016-12-01

Urinary incontinence (UI) affects 10-40% of the population and treatment costs in the UK are estimated to be £233 million per annum. A systematic review of online medical databases between July 1974 and 2016 was conducted to identify studies that had investigated risk and prediction strategies of UI in later life. Eighteen prospective longitudinal studies fulfilled the search criteria. These were analysed systematically (as per the PRISMA checklist) and bias risk through study design was minimised where possible upon data analysis. One paper proposed a predictive assessment tool called the 'continence index'. It was derived following secondary analysis of a cohort study and its predictive threshold had suboptimal sensitivity (79%) and specificity (65%) rates. Seventeen studies identified multiple strong risk factors for UI but despite a large selection of papers on the topic, no robust risk assessment tool prospectively identified patients at risk of UI in later life. Thus more research in this field is required. Clinicians should be aware particularly of modifiable UI risk factors to help reduce the clinical burden of UI in the long term. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Clinical efficacy and effectiveness of 3D printing: a systematic review.

PubMed

Diment, Laura E; Thompson, Mark S; Bergmann, Jeroen H M

2017-12-21

To evaluate the clinical efficacy and effectiveness of using 3D printing to develop medical devices across all medical fields. Systematic review compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. PubMed, Web of Science, OVID, IEEE Xplore and Google Scholar. A double-blinded review method was used to select all abstracts up to January 2017 that reported on clinical trials of a three-dimensional (3D)-printed medical device. The studies were ranked according to their level of evidence, divided into medical fields based on the International Classification of Diseases chapter divisions and categorised into whether they were used for preoperative planning, aiding surgery or therapy. The Downs and Black Quality Index critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of reporting, external validity, risk of bias, risk of confounding and power of each study. Of the 3084 abstracts screened, 350 studies met the inclusion criteria. Oral and maxillofacial surgery contained 58.3% of studies, and 23.7% covered the musculoskeletal system. Only 21 studies were randomised controlled trials (RCTs), and all fitted within these two fields. The majority of RCTs were 3D-printed anatomical models for preoperative planning and guides for aiding surgery. The main benefits of these devices were decreased surgical operation times and increased surgical accuracy. All medical fields that assessed 3D-printed devices concluded that they were clinically effective. The fields that most rigorously assessed 3D-printed devices were oral and maxillofacial surgery and the musculoskeletal system, both of which concluded that the 3D-printed devices outperformed their conventional comparators. However, the efficacy and effectiveness of 3D-printed devices remain undetermined for the majority of medical fields. 3D-printed devices can play an important role in healthcare, but more rigorous and long-term assessments are needed to determine if 3D-printed devices are clinically relevant before they become part of standard clinical practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Impact of imaging landmark on the risk of MRI-related heating near implanted medical devices like cardiac pacemaker leads.

PubMed

Nordbeck, Peter; Ritter, Oliver; Weiss, Ingo; Warmuth, Marcus; Gensler, Daniel; Burkard, Natalie; Herold, Volker; Jakob, Peter M; Ertl, Georg; Ladd, Mark E; Quick, Harald H; Bauer, Wolfgang R

2011-01-01

Implanted medical devices such as cardiac pacemakers pose a potential hazard in magnetic resonance imaging. Electromagnetic fields have been shown to cause severe radio frequency-induced tissue heating in some cases. Imaging exclusion zones have been proposed as an instrument to reduce patient risk. The purpose of this study was to further assess the impact of the imaging landmark on the risk for unintended implant heating by measuring the radio frequency-induced electric fields in a body phantom under several imaging conditions at 1.5T. The results show that global radio frequency-induced coupling is highest with the torso centered along the superior-inferior direction of the transmit coil. The induced E-fields inside the body shift when changing body positioning, reducing both global and local radio frequency coupling if body and/or conductive implant are moved out from the transmit coil center along the z-direction. Adequate selection of magnetic resonance imaging landmark can significantly reduce potential hazards in patients with implanted medical devices. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Validation of Nutritional Risk Screening-2002 in a Hospitalized Adult Population.

PubMed

Bolayir, Başak; Arik, Güneş; Yeşil, Yusuf; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Varan, Hacer Doğan; Kara, Özgür; Güngör, Anil Evrim; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Cankurtaran, Mustafa; Halil, Meltem Gülhan

2018-03-30

Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is a serious problem and is associated with a number of adverse outcomes. The Nutritional Risk Screening-2002 (NRS-2002) tool was designed to identify patients at nutrition risk. The validation of NRS-2002 compared with detailed clinical assessment of nutrition status was not studied before in hospitalized Turkish adults. The aim of this study is to determine validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Turkish version of NRS-2002 in a hospitalized adult population. A total of 271 consecutive hospitalized patients aged >18 years admitted to surgical and medical wards of a university hospital in Turkey were included in this single-center non interventional validity study. Assessment by geriatricians was used as the reference method. Two geriatricians experienced in the field of malnutrition interpreted the patients' nutrition status after the evaluation of several parameters. Patients were divided into "at nutrition risk" and "not at nutrition risk" groups by geriatricians. Concordance between the 2 geriatricians' clinical assessments was analyzed by κ statistics. Excellent concordance was found; therefore, the first geriatrician's decisions were accepted as the gold standard. The correlation of nutrition status of the patients, determined with NRS-2002 and experienced geriatrician's decisions, was evaluated for the validity. NRS-2002 has a sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 92% when compared with professional assessment. The positive and negative predictive values were 87% and 92%, respectively. Testretest agreement was excellent as represented by a κ coefficient of 0.956. NRS-2002 is a valid tool to assess malnutrition risk in Turkish hospitalized patients. © 2018 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Approaches for derivation of environmental quality criteria for substances applied in risk assessment of discharges from offshore drilling operations.

PubMed

Altin, Dag; Frost, Tone Karin; Nilssen, Ingunn

2008-04-01

In order to achieve the offshore petroleum industries "zero harm" goal to the environment, the environmental impact factor for drilling discharges was developed as a tool to identify and quantify the environmental risks associated with disposal of drilling discharges to the marine environment. As an initial step in this work the main categories of substances associated with drilling discharges and assumed to contribute to toxic or nontoxic stress were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the risk assessment. The selection were based on the known toxicological properties of the substances, or the total amount discharged together with their potential for accumulation in the water column or sediments to levels that could be expected to cause toxic or nontoxic stress to the biota. Based on these criteria 3 categories of chemicals were identified for risk assessment the water column and sediments: Natural organic substances, metals, and drilling fluid chemicals. Several approaches for deriving the environmentally safe threshold concentrations as predicted no effect concentrations were evaluated in the process. For the water column consensus were reached for using the species sensitivity distribution approach for metals and the assessment factor approach for natural organic substances and added drilling chemicals. For the sediments the equilibrium partitioning approach was selected for all three categories of chemicals. The theoretically derived sediment quality criteria were compared to field-derived threshold effect values based on statistical approaches applied on sediment monitoring data from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The basis for derivation of predicted no effect concentration values for drilling discharges should be consistent with the principles of environmental risk assessment as described in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment issued by the European Union.

Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

PubMed

Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

2017-07-07

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

2017-01-01

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

Environmental assessment of creosote-treated pilings in the marine environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butala, J.H.; Webb, D.A.; Jop, K.M.

1995-12-31

A comprehensive ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the environmental impact of creosote-treated pilings in the marine environment at Moss Landing Harbor, Moss Landing, California. Four areas of investigation comprising the risk assessment were (1) evaluation of environmental conditions around existing creosote-treated pilings (2) investigating effects related to restoration of pilings (3) assessing creosote migration into surrounding environment, one year after pile-driving and (4) confirmation of creosote toxicity in laboratory studies. Biological and chemical evaluation of the impact of creosote-treated pilings was conducted on surface sheen, water column and sediment samples collected at Moss Landing Harbor. Water samples (surfacemore » sheen, water column and sediment pore water) were evaluated using short-term chronic exposures with Mysidopsis bahia, while bulk sediment samples were evaluated with 10-day sediment toxicity tests with Ampelisca abdita. Samples of surface, column water and sediment were analyzed for the constituents of creosote by GC mass spectrometry. In addition, a sample of neat material used to preserve treated pilings represented a reference for the polyaromatic hydrocarbons. Verification of organism response and analyses of field collected samples was performed by conducting 10-day A. abdita sediment and 7-day M. bahia elutriate exposures with creosote applied to clean sediment collected at Moss Landing, Evaluations were also performed to determine the effects of photoinduced toxicity on test organisms exposed to PAHs. The biological and analytical results of the field and laboratory exposures are being used to evaluate and determine risk of creosote-treated pilings on the marine environment.« less

The Apache Longbow-Hellfire Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground: Ecological Risk Assessment for Tracked Vehicle Movement across Desert Pavement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, Mark J; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Hargrove, William Walter

A multiple stressor risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework. The focus was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, M60-A1 tanks. This paper describes the ecological risk assessment for the tracked vehicle movement component of the testing program. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased infiltration and/or evaporation associated with disturbancesmore » to desert pavement. The simulated exposure of wash vegetation to water loss was quantified using estimates of exposed land area from a digital ortho quarter quad aerial photo and field observations, a 30 30 m digital elevation model, the flow accumulation feature of ESRI ArcInfo, and a two-step process in which runoff was estimated from direct precipitation to a land area and from water that flowed from upgradient to a land area. In all simulated scenarios, absolute water loss decreased with distance from the disturbance, downgradient in the washes; however, percentage water loss was greatest in land areas immediately downgradient of a disturbance. Potential effects on growth and survival of wash trees were quantified by using an empirical relationship derived from a local unpublished study of water infiltration rates. The risk characterization concluded that neither risk to wash vegetation growth or survival nor risk to mule deer abundance and reproduction was expected. The risk characterization was negative for both the incremental risk of the test program and the combination of the test and pretest disturbances.« less

Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring a representative research portfolio.

PubMed

Keith, David W; Duren, Riley; MacMartin, Douglas G

2014-12-28

We summarize a portfolio of possible field experiments on solar radiation management (SRM) and related technologies. The portfolio is intended to support analysis of potential field research related to SRM including discussions about the overall merit and risk of such research as well as mechanisms for governing such research and assessments of observational needs. The proposals were generated with contributions from leading researchers at a workshop held in March 2014 at which the proposals were critically reviewed. The proposed research dealt with three major classes of SRM proposals: marine cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosols and cirrus cloud manipulation. The proposals are summarized here along with an analysis exploring variables such as space and time scale, risk and radiative forcing. Possible gaps, biases and cross-cutting considerations are discussed. Finally, suggestions for plausible next steps in the development of a systematic research programme are presented.

Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring a representative research portfolio

PubMed Central

Keith, David W.; Duren, Riley; MacMartin, Douglas G.

2014-01-01

We summarize a portfolio of possible field experiments on solar radiation management (SRM) and related technologies. The portfolio is intended to support analysis of potential field research related to SRM including discussions about the overall merit and risk of such research as well as mechanisms for governing such research and assessments of observational needs. The proposals were generated with contributions from leading researchers at a workshop held in March 2014 at which the proposals were critically reviewed. The proposed research dealt with three major classes of SRM proposals: marine cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosols and cirrus cloud manipulation. The proposals are summarized here along with an analysis exploring variables such as space and time scale, risk and radiative forcing. Possible gaps, biases and cross-cutting considerations are discussed. Finally, suggestions for plausible next steps in the development of a systematic research programme are presented. PMID:25404684

Pharmacogenetics and Stroke

PubMed Central

Meschia, James F.

2009-01-01

Genetic variations have been shown to influence drug metabolism, risk of adverse drug events, and pharmacodynamic responses for many drugs routinely used to treat patients with stroke or at risk for stroke. Examples include clopidogrel, statins, antihypertensive medications, and coumadin. Further validation studies are needed to assess the clinical utility of selecting drugs and doses based on genetic tests. Physicians, pharmaceutical companies, regulatory agencies, and health insurers continue to grapple with how best to translate this burgeoning field into effective individualized medicine. PMID:19762696

Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

1989-01-01

Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.

Contamination potential of nitrogen compounds in the heterogeneous aquifers of the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2005-10-01

This study aimed to analyze the contamination potential associated with the reactive transport of nitrate-N and ammonium-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan and to evaluate a risk region in developing a groundwater protection policy in 2021. In this area, an aquifer redox sequence provided a good understanding of the spatial distributions of nitrate-N and ammonium-N and of aerobic and anaerobic environments. Equiprobable hydraulic conductivity ( K) fields reproduced by geostatistical methods characterized the spatial uncertainty of contaminant transport in the heterogeneous aquifer. Nitrogen contamination potential fronts for high and low threshold concentrations based on a 95% risk probability were used to assess different levels of risk. The simulated result reveals that the spatial uncertainty of highly heterogeneous K fields governs the contamination potential assessment of the nitrogen compounds along the regional flow directions. The contamination potential of nitrate-N is more uncertain than that for ammonium-N. The high nitrate-N concentrations (≧ 3 mg/L) are prevalent in the aerobic environment. The low concentration nitrate-N plumes (0.5-3 mg/L) gradually migrate to the mid-fan area and to a maximum distance of 15 km from the aerobic region. The nitrate-N plumes pose a potential human health risk in the aerobic and anaerobic environments. The ammonium-N plumes remain stably confined to the distal-fan and partial mid-fan areas.

Distribution of Arsenic and Risk Assessment of Activities on Soccer Pitches Irrigated with Arsenic-Contaminated Water.

PubMed

Martínez-Villegas, Nadia; Hernández, Abraham; Meza-Figueroa, Diana; Sen Gupta, Bhaskar

2018-05-24

The aim of this research was to estimate the risk of human exposure to arsenic due to sporting activities in a private soccer club in Mexico, where arsenic-contaminated water was regularly used for irrigation. For this purpose, the total concentration in the topsoil was considered for risk assessment. This was accomplished through three main objectives: (1) measuring arsenic concentrations in irrigation water and irrigated soils, (2) determining arsenic spatial distribution in shallow soils with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) using geostatistical analysis, and (3) collecting field and survey data to develop a risk assessment calculation for soccer activities in the soccer club. The results showed that the average arsenic concentrations in shallow soils (138.1 mg/kg) were 6.2 times higher than the Mexican threshold for domestic soils (22 mg/kg). Furthermore, dermal contact between exposed users and contaminated soils accounted for a maximum carcinogenic risk value of 1.8 × 10 −5 , which is one order of magnitude higher than the recommended risk value, while arsenic concentrations in the irrigation water were higher (6 mg/L) than the WHO’s permissible threshold in drinking water, explaining the contamination of soils after irrigation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first risk study regarding dermal contact with arsenic following regular grass irrigation with contaminated water in soccer pitches.

Distribution and health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in industrial site soils: a case study of urban renewal in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Wenrui; Wang, Rusong; Zhou, Chuanbin; Li, Feng

2009-01-01

Abstract A field survey was conducted in a contaminated industrial site of southern Beijing, China to investigate the contents and distribution of the organochlorine pesticides (alpha-, beta-, gamma-, delta-HCH, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD and o,p'-DDT) in the profiles of soil, and a health risk assessment was carried out with CalTOX multimedia exposure model. Results showed that mean concentrations of total hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs) and total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane isomers (DDXs) in soils were in the range of 13.20-148.71 mg/kg, and 3.02-67.43 mg/kg, respectively. Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) content peaked in the surface and declined in soil profile with depth. The amounts of HCHs in three profiles of soil were larger than DDXs. Composition analysis indicated that there was a trend of degradation of OCPs in the site, but the mean of HCHs and DDXs concentration were over the state warning standard limit (HCHs, 0.50 mg/kg; DDXs, 0.50 mg/kg). According to current land use development, health risk assessment with CalTOX and Monte Carlo analysis showed that health risks mainly came from two exposure pathways: dermal uptake and inhalation, and the total risk values all exceeded the general acceptable health risk value (10-6). The sensitivity analysis indicated that five parameters significantly contributed to total risk.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less

Relative Velocity as a Metric for Probability of Collision Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Rohrbaugh, Dave

2008-01-01

Collision risk assessment metrics, such as the probability of collision calculation, are based largely on assumptions about the interaction of two objects during their close approach. Specifically, the approach to probabilistic risk assessment can be performed more easily if the relative trajectories of the two close approach objects are assumed to be linear during the encounter. It is shown in this analysis that one factor in determining linearity is the relative velocity of the two encountering bodies, in that the assumption of linearity breaks down at low relative approach velocities. The first part of this analysis is the determination of the relative velocity threshold below which the assumption of linearity becomes invalid. The second part is a statistical study of conjunction interactions between representative asset spacecraft and the associated debris field environment to determine the likelihood of encountering a low relative velocity close approach. This analysis is performed for both the LEO and GEO orbit regimes. Both parts comment on the resulting effects to collision risk assessment operations.

In situ release rates of Cu and Zn from commercial antifouling paints at different salinities.

PubMed

Lagerström, Maria; Lindgren, J Fredrik; Holmqvist, Albin; Dahlström, Mia; Ytreberg, Erik

2018-02-01

Antifouling paints are environmentally risk assessed based on their biocidal release rates to the water phase. In situ release rates of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) were derived for five commercial paints in two recreational marinas with different salinities (5 and 14 PSU) using an X-Ray Fluorescence spectrometer (XRF). Salinity was found to significantly affect the Cu release, with twice the amount of Cu released at the higher salinity, while its influence on the Zn release was paint-specific. Site-specific release rates for water bodies with salinity gradients, e.g. the Baltic Sea, are therefore necessary for more realistic risk assessments of antifouling paints. Furthermore, the in situ release rates were up to 8 times higher than those generated using standardized laboratory or calculation methods. The environmental risk assessment repeated with the field release rates concludes that it is questionable whether the studied products should be allowed on the Swedish market. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

2013-04-01

In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

Experts Workshop on the Ecotoxicological Risk Assessment of Ionizable Organic Chemicals: Bioaccumulation/ADME

EPA Science Inventory

The bioaccumulation potential of neutral organic chemicals (e.g., PCBs, DDT, brominated flame retardants) has received a great deal of attention from scientists in the field of environment toxicology and chemistry over the past four decades. Regulations based on our understanding...

Ecotoxicogenomics to Support Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study with Bisphenol A in Fish

EPA Science Inventory

Toxicogenomic approaches are being increasingly applied in the field of ecotoxicology. Given the growing availability of ecotoxicogenomic data, the Agency and the broader scientific community are actively engaged in considering how best to use those data to support ecological ris...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, D.E.

This report presents discussions given at a conference on environmental remediation, September 8--11, Pasco, Washington. Topics include: public confidence; education; in-situ remediation; Hanford tank operations; risk assessments; field experiences; standards; site characterization and monitoring; technology discussions; regulatory issues; compliance; and the UMTRA project. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases.

FIELD ASSESSMENT OF INSECT RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT (IRM) FOR PLANT-INCORPORATED-PROTECTANTS (PIPS)

EPA Science Inventory

The development of target pest resistance to the products of transgene[s], e.g., plant-incorporated protectants is a serious risk both to the sustainability of these crops and to the wider utility of environmentally soft microbial pesticides. Therefore, the EPA requires growers...

Technical Committee on Aricultural Chemical Safety (ACSA) Life Stages Task Force

EPA Science Inventory

This document takes a life stages approach to the assessment of risk attributable to crop protection products, and well-known experts in the field are contributing authors. The paper presents an in-depth justification for proposed changes in current protocols for toxicity testing...

Using Fugacity Ratios to Compare Laboratory and Field Measured Bioaccumulation Endpoint Metrics

EPA Science Inventory

Bioconcentration (BCF) testing provides useful insights into the behavior of chemicals in the aquatic ecosystem that are useful for modeling and other applications. BCFs are also often used for chemical hazard screening and risk assessment. The question arises how well can we ext...

Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation and electromagnetic fields in relation to the risk of thyroid cancer in Sweden.

PubMed

Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Floderus, Birgitta; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Silva, Agustín; Pollán, Marina

2006-08-01

This study sought to ascertain the risk of thyroid cancer in relation to occupational exposure to ionizing radiation and extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELFMF) in a cohort representative of Sweden's gainfully employed population. A historical cohort of 2 992 166 gainfully employed Swedish male and female workers was followed up from 1971 through 1989. Exposure to ELFMF and ionizing radiation was assessed using three job exposure matrices based on industrial branch or occupational codes. Relative risks (RR) for male and female workers, adjusted for age and geographic area, were computed using log-linear Poisson models. Occupational ELFMF exposure showed no effect on the risk of thyroid cancer in the study. However, female workers exposed to high intensities of ionizing radiation registered a marked excess risk (RR 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.02-3.35]. This trend was not in evidence among the men. While the study confirms the etiologic role of ionizing radiation, with a higher incidence of thyroid cancer being recorded for the most-exposed female workers, our results do not support the possibility of occupational exposure to ELFMF being a risk factor for the development of thyroid cancer.

Real-time teleophthalmology versus face-to-face consultation: A systematic review.

PubMed

Tan, Irene J; Dobson, Lucy P; Bartnik, Stephen; Muir, Josephine; Turner, Angus W

2017-08-01

Introduction Advances in imaging capabilities and the evolution of real-time teleophthalmology have the potential to provide increased coverage to areas with limited ophthalmology services. However, there is limited research assessing the diagnostic accuracy of face-to-face teleophthalmology consultation. This systematic review aims to determine if real-time teleophthalmology provides comparable accuracy to face-to-face consultation for the diagnosis of common eye health conditions. Methods A search of PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane databases and manual citation review was conducted on 6 February and 7 April 2016. Included studies involved real-time telemedicine in the field of ophthalmology or optometry, and assessed diagnostic accuracy against gold-standard face-to-face consultation. The revised quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2) tool assessed risk of bias. Results Twelve studies were included, with participants ranging from four to 89 years old. A broad number of conditions were assessed and include corneal and retinal pathologies, strabismus, oculoplastics and post-operative review. Quality assessment identified a high or unclear risk of bias in patient selection (75%) due to an undisclosed recruitment processes. The index test showed high risk of bias in the included studies, due to the varied interpretation and conduct of real-time teleophthalmology methods. Reference standard risk was overall low (75%), as was the risk due to flow and timing (75%). Conclusion In terms of diagnostic accuracy, real-time teleophthalmology was considered superior to face-to-face consultation in one study and comparable in six studies. Store-and-forward image transmission coupled with real-time videoconferencing is a suitable alternative to overcome poor internet transmission speeds.

Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) Tool to Support Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

McConnell, Emma R.; Bell, Shannon M.; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J.; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D.

2014-01-01

Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

A Social-Ecological Framework of Theory, Assessment, and Prevention of Suicide

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Kapusta, Nestor D.

2017-01-01

The juxtaposition of increasing suicide rates with continued calls for suicide prevention efforts begs for new approaches. Grounded in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) framework for tackling health issues, this personal views work integrates relevant suicide risk/protective factor, assessment, and intervention/prevention literatures. Based on these components of suicide risk, we articulate a Social-Ecological Suicide Prevention Model (SESPM) which provides an integration of general and population-specific risk and protective factors. We also use this multi-level perspective to provide a structured approach to understanding current theories and intervention/prevention efforts concerning suicide. Following similar multi-level prevention efforts in interpersonal violence and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) domains, we offer recommendations for social-ecologically informed suicide prevention theory, training, research, assessment, and intervention programming. Although the SESPM calls for further empirical testing, it provides a suitable backdrop for tailoring of current prevention and intervention programs to population-specific needs. Moreover, the multi-level model shows promise to move suicide risk assessment forward (e.g., development of multi-level suicide risk algorithms or structured professional judgments instruments) to overcome current limitations in the field. Finally, we articulate a set of characteristics of social-ecologically based suicide prevention programs. These include the need to address risk and protective factors with the strongest degree of empirical support at each multi-level layer, incorporate a comprehensive program evaluation strategy, and use a variety of prevention techniques across levels of prevention. PMID:29062296

Exposure assessment of process-related contaminants in food by biomarker monitoring.

PubMed

Rietjens, Ivonne M C M; Dussort, P; Günther, Helmut; Hanlon, Paul; Honda, Hiroshi; Mally, Angela; O'Hagan, Sue; Scholz, Gabriele; Seidel, Albrecht; Swenberg, James; Teeguarden, Justin; Eisenbrand, Gerhard

2018-01-01

Exposure assessment is a fundamental part of the risk assessment paradigm, but can often present a number of challenges and uncertainties. This is especially the case for process contaminants formed during the processing, e.g. heating of food, since they are in part highly reactive and/or volatile, thus making exposure assessment by analysing contents in food unreliable. New approaches are therefore required to accurately assess consumer exposure and thus better inform the risk assessment. Such novel approaches may include the use of biomarkers, physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling-facilitated reverse dosimetry, and/or duplicate diet studies. This review focuses on the state of the art with respect to the use of biomarkers of exposure for the process contaminants acrylamide, 3-MCPD esters, glycidyl esters, furan and acrolein. From the overview presented, it becomes clear that the field of assessing human exposure to process-related contaminants in food by biomarker monitoring is promising and strongly developing. The current state of the art as well as the existing data gaps and challenges for the future were defined. They include (1) using PBK modelling and duplicate diet studies to establish, preferably in humans, correlations between external exposure and biomarkers; (2) elucidation of the possible endogenous formation of the process-related contaminants and the resulting biomarker levels; (3) the influence of inter-individual variations and how to include that in the biomarker-based exposure predictions; (4) the correction for confounding factors; (5) the value of the different biomarkers in relation to exposure scenario's and risk assessment, and (6) the possibilities of novel methodologies. In spite of these challenges it can be concluded that biomarker-based exposure assessment provides a unique opportunity to more accurately assess consumer exposure to process-related contaminants in food and thus to better inform risk assessment.

Developing risk prediction models for kidney injury and assessing incremental value for novel biomarkers.

PubMed

Kerr, Kathleen F; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

2014-08-07

The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients' risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Synthetic biology and occupational risk.

PubMed

Howard, John; Murashov, Vladimir; Schulte, Paul

2017-03-01

Synthetic biology is an emerging interdisciplinary field of biotechnology that involves applying the principles of engineering and chemical design to biological systems. Biosafety professionals have done an excellent job in addressing research laboratory safety as synthetic biology and gene editing have emerged from the larger field of biotechnology. Despite these efforts, risks posed by synthetic biology are of increasing concern as research procedures scale up to industrial processes in the larger bioeconomy. A greater number and variety of workers will be exposed to commercial synthetic biology risks in the future, including risks to a variety of workers from the use of lentiviral vectors as gene transfer devices. There is a need to review and enhance current protection measures in the field of synthetic biology, whether in experimental laboratories where new advances are being researched, in health care settings where treatments using viral vectors as gene delivery systems are increasingly being used, or in the industrial bioeconomy. Enhanced worker protection measures should include increased injury and illness surveillance of the synthetic biology workforce; proactive risk assessment and management of synthetic biology products; research on the relative effectiveness of extrinsic and intrinsic biocontainment methods; specific safety guidance for synthetic biology industrial processes; determination of appropriate medical mitigation measures for lentiviral vector exposure incidents; and greater awareness and involvement in synthetic biology safety by the general occupational safety and health community as well as by government occupational safety and health research and regulatory agencies.

Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

2013-07-01

The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

Which on-field signs/symptoms predict protracted recovery from sport-related concussion among high school football players?

PubMed

Lau, Brian C; Kontos, Anthony P; Collins, Michael W; Mucha, Anne; Lovell, Mark R

2011-11-01

There has been increasing attention and understanding of sport-related concussions. Recent studies show that neurocognitive testing and symptom clusters may predict protracted recovery in concussed athletes. On-field signs and symptoms have not been examined empirically as possible predictors of protracted recovery. This study was undertaken to determine which on-field signs and symptoms were predictive of a protracted (≥21 days) versus rapid (≤7 days) recovery after a sports-related concussion. On-field signs and symptoms included confusion, loss of consciousness, posttraumatic amnesia, retrograde amnesia, imbalance, dizziness, visual problems, personality changes, fatigue, sensitivity to light/noise, numbness, and vomiting. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. The sample included 107 male high school football athletes who completed computerized neurocognitive testing within an average 2.4 days after injury, and who were followed until returned to play as determined by neuropsychologists using international clinical concussion management guidelines. Athletes were then grouped into rapid (≤7 days, n = 62) or protracted (≥21 days, n = 36) recovery time groups. The presence of on-field signs and symptoms was determined at the time of injury by trained sports medicine professionals (i.e., ATC [certified athletic trainer], team physician). A series of odds ratios with χ(2) analyses and subsequent logistic regression were used to determine which on-field signs and symptoms were associated with an increased risk for a protracted recovery. Dizziness at the time of injury was associated with a 6.34 odds ratio (95% confidence interval = 1.34-29.91, χ(2) = 5.44, P = .02) of a protracted recovery from concussion. Surprisingly, the remaining on-field signs and symptoms were not associated with an increased risk of protracted recovery in the current study. Assessment of on-field dizziness may help identify high school athletes at risk for a protracted recovery. Such information will improve prognostic information and allow clinicians to manage and treat concussion more effectively in these at-risk athletes.

Qualitative Versus Quantitative Mammographic Breast Density Assessment: Applications for the US and Abroad

PubMed Central

Destounis, Stamatia; Arieno, Andrea; Morgan, Renee; Roberts, Christina; Chan, Ariane

2017-01-01

Mammographic breast density (MBD) has been proven to be an important risk factor for breast cancer and an important determinant of mammographic screening performance. The measurement of density has changed dramatically since its inception. Initial qualitative measurement methods have been found to have limited consistency between readers, and in regards to breast cancer risk. Following the introduction of full-field digital mammography, more sophisticated measurement methodology is now possible. Automated computer-based density measurements can provide consistent, reproducible, and objective results. In this review paper, we describe various methods currently available to assess MBD, and provide a discussion on the clinical utility of such methods for breast cancer screening. PMID:28561776

Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots.

PubMed

Komnitsas, Kostas; Modis, Kostas

2009-05-30

The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.

Program Manager Assessments: Professionalism Personified

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

dozens of legacy systems. A few years ago, the idea of modernizing this collection in a “ big bang ” approach was rejected in favor of a lower-risk and...chain of com- mand. The assessments are simul - taneously sent to me, the Service or Component acquisition executive, and the program executive officer...use of actual test results at sub-scale, com- ponent testing, modeling, simulation , and field testing were all described in fair detail. Key near

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Prediction of Composition and Emission Characteristics of Articles in Support of Exposure Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The risk to humans from chemicals in consumer products is dependent on both hazard and exposure. The prediction and quantification of near-field (i.e., indoor) chemical exposure from household articles such as furniture and building materials is an ongoing effort. As opposed to (...

75 FR 56892 - Fenarimol; Pesticide Tolerance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-17

... requests are provided in 40 CFR 178.25(b). In addition to filing an objection or hearing request with the... toxicological POD is used as the basis for derivation of reference values for risk assessment. PODs are...) monitoring data for apples, bananas, cherries, grapes, and pears. Field trial residue data were used for...

Taking Metabolomics to the Field: A Pilot Study in a Great Lakes Area of Concern (AOC)

EPA Science Inventory

Measurement of changes in endogenous metabolites via 1H-NMR-based metabolomics has shown great potential for assessing organisms exposed to environmental pollutants, and thus could aid the efforts of risk assessors. However, to date, the application of metabolomics to ecologi...

Near-rail yard air quality--assessment through field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Compared to truck transport, goods movement by rail produces generally lower air pollutant emissions (e.g., particulate matter, carbon dioxide) per ton of freight transported. Emissions associated with rail transport are also confined to rail corridors which may lower the risk of...

A Proposed Approach for Screening Level Assessment of Risk to Songbird Populations from Pesticide Application in Cotton Fields

EPA Science Inventory

Due to complex population dynamics and migration behaviors, the well-being of animal populations that host human diseases sometimes varies across landscapes in ways that cannot be deduced from geographic abundance patterns alone. In such cases, efficient management of ecologica...

IMPORTANT EXPOSURE FACTORS FOR CHILDREN AN ANALYSIS OF LABORATORY AND OBSERVATIONAL FIELD DATA CHARACTERIZING CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

In an effort to facilitate more realistic risk assessments that take into account unique childhood vulnerabilities to environmental toxicants, the U.S. EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) developed a framework for systematically identifying and addressing the most ...

EFFECTS OF ON-BOTTOM OYSTER MARICULTURE ON SMALL, SEDIMENT-DWELLING INVERTEBRATES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a programmatic effort to determine estuarine habitat values for ecological risk assessments, quantitative field studies of small ( 0.5 mm), sediment-dwelling invertebrates were conducted in Willapa Bay, WA in July 1998 and Tillamook Bay, OR in July 1999. The six habit...

Photo guide for estimating risk to hardwood trees during prescribed burning operations in eastern oak forests

Treesearch

Patrick H. Brose

2009-01-01

A field guide of 40 photographs of common hardwood trees of eastern oak forests and fuel loadings surrounding their bases. The guide contains instructions on how to rapidly assess a tree's likelihood to be damaged or killed by prescribed burning.

Salmonella and fecal indicator bacteria survival in soils amended with poultry manure

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Minimizing the risks associated with manure-borne pathogenic microorganisms requires an understanding of microbial survival under realistic field conditions. The objective of this 3-year study was to assess the fate of Salmonella (SALM) and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), E. coli (EC) and enterococc...

Associating Changes in Endogenous Metabolite Profiles of Field-Deployed Fish with Chemical Contaminants and Other Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing risk from contaminant exposure in the aquatic environment typically begins (and often ends) with identification of “listed” chemicals in water samples. While providing useful information about potential exposures, this approach to monitoring – in the absence of site-spe...

The regulation of agricultural biotechnology: science shows a better way.

PubMed

Miller, Henry I

2010-11-30

National and international regulation of recombinant DNA-modified, or 'genetically engineered' (also referred to as 'genetically modified' or GM), organisms is unscientific and illogical, a lamentable illustration of the maxim that bad science makes bad law. Instead of regulatory scrutiny that is proportional to risk, the degree of oversight is actually inversely proportional to risk. The current approach to regulation, which captures for case-by-case review organisms to be field tested or commercialized according to the techniques used to construct them rather than their properties, flies in the face of scientific consensus. This approach has been costly in terms of economic losses and human suffering. The poorest of the poor have suffered the most because of hugely inflated development costs of genetically engineered plants and food. A model for regulation of field trials known as the 'Stanford Model' is designed to assess risks of new agricultural introductions - whether or not the organisms are genetically engineered, and independent of the genetic modification techniques employed. It offers a scientific, rational, risk-based basis for field trial regulations. Using this sort of model for regulatory review would not only better protect human health and the environment, but would also permit more expeditious development and more widespread use of new plants and seeds. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Garber, Kristina; Odenkirchen, Edward

2017-01-01

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. There is accumulating evidence that insecticides adversely affect non-target wildlife species, including birds, causing mortality, reproductive impairment, and indirect effects through loss of prey base, and the type and magnitude of such effects differs by chemical class, or mode of action. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. Current USEPA risk assessments for pesticides generally rely on endpoints from laboratory based toxicity studies focused on groups of individuals and do not directly assess population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to forage in agricultural fields during their breeding season. This model relies on individual-based toxicity data and translates effects into endpoints meaningful at the population level (i.e., magnitude of mortality and reproductive impairment). The model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model was used to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides applied via aerial spray to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to forage in cornfields in agroecosystems of the Midwest, USA. We found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and λ-cyhalothrin (pyrethroids) posing the least risk. Comparative sensitivity analysis across the 31 species showed that ecological trait parameters related to the timing of breeding and reproductive output per nest attempt offered the greatest explanatory power for predicting the magnitude of risk. An important advantage of TIM/MCnest is that it allows risk assessors to rationally combine both acute (lethal) and chronic (reproductive) effects into a single unified measure of risk. PMID:28467479

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems.

PubMed

Etterson, Matthew; Garber, Kristina; Odenkirchen, Edward

2017-01-01

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. There is accumulating evidence that insecticides adversely affect non-target wildlife species, including birds, causing mortality, reproductive impairment, and indirect effects through loss of prey base, and the type and magnitude of such effects differs by chemical class, or mode of action. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. Current USEPA risk assessments for pesticides generally rely on endpoints from laboratory based toxicity studies focused on groups of individuals and do not directly assess population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to forage in agricultural fields during their breeding season. This model relies on individual-based toxicity data and translates effects into endpoints meaningful at the population level (i.e., magnitude of mortality and reproductive impairment). The model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model was used to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides applied via aerial spray to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to forage in cornfields in agroecosystems of the Midwest, USA. We found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and λ-cyhalothrin (pyrethroids) posing the least risk. Comparative sensitivity analysis across the 31 species showed that ecological trait parameters related to the timing of breeding and reproductive output per nest attempt offered the greatest explanatory power for predicting the magnitude of risk. An important advantage of TIM/MCnest is that it allows risk assessors to rationally combine both acute (lethal) and chronic (reproductive) effects into a single unified measure of risk.