Parameter estimation and prediction for the course of a single epidemic outbreak of a plant disease.

PubMed

Kleczkowski, A; Gilligan, C A

2007-10-22

Many epidemics of plant diseases are characterized by large variability among individual outbreaks. However, individual epidemics often follow a well-defined trajectory which is much more predictable in the short term than the ensemble (collection) of potential epidemics. In this paper, we introduce a modelling framework that allows us to deal with individual replicated outbreaks, based upon a Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Information about 'similar' replicate epidemics can be incorporated into a hierarchical model, allowing both ensemble and individual parameters to be estimated. The model is used to analyse the data from a replicated experiment involving spread of Rhizoctonia solani on radish in the presence or absence of a biocontrol agent, Trichoderma viride. The rate of primary (soil-to-plant) infection is found to be the most variable factor determining the final size of epidemics. Breakdown of biological control in some replicates results in high levels of primary infection and increased variability. The model can be used to predict new outbreaks of disease based upon knowledge from a 'library' of previous epidemics and partial information about the current outbreak. We show that forecasting improves significantly with knowledge about the history of a particular epidemic, whereas the precision of hindcasting to identify the past course of the epidemic is largely independent of detailed knowledge of the epidemic trajectory. The results have important consequences for parameter estimation, inference and prediction for emerging epidemic outbreaks.

The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt.

PubMed

Viboud, Cécile; Sun, Kaiyuan; Gaffey, Robert; Ajelli, Marco; Fumanelli, Laura; Merler, Stefano; Zhang, Qian; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro

2018-03-01

Infectious disease forecasting is gaining traction in the public health community; however, limited systematic comparisons of model performance exist. Here we present the results of a synthetic forecasting challenge inspired by the West African Ebola crisis in 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams and US government agencies, and compare the predictive performance of 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 epidemiological targets across 5 different time points of 4 synthetic Ebola outbreaks, each involving different levels of interventions and "fog of war" in outbreak data made available for predictions. Prediction targets included 1-4 week-ahead case incidences, outbreak size, peak timing, and several natural history parameters. With respect to weekly case incidence targets, ensemble predictions based on a Bayesian average of the 8 participating models outperformed any individual model and did substantially better than a null auto-regressive model. There was no relationship between model complexity and prediction accuracy; however, the top performing models for short-term weekly incidence were reactive models with few parameters, fitted to a short and recent part of the outbreak. Individual model outputs and ensemble predictions improved with data accuracy and availability; by the second time point, just before the peak of the epidemic, estimates of final size were within 20% of the target. The 4th challenge scenario - mirroring an uncontrolled Ebola outbreak with substantial data reporting noise - was poorly predicted by all modeling teams. Overall, this synthetic forecasting challenge provided a deep understanding of model performance under controlled data and epidemiological conditions. We recommend such "peace time" forecasting challenges as key elements to improve coordination and inspire collaboration between modeling groups ahead of the next pandemic threat, and to assess model forecasting accuracy for a variety of known and hypothetical pathogens. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Documentation of Measles Elimination in Iran: Evidences from 2012 to 2014.

PubMed

Karami, Manoochehr; Zahraei, Seyed Mohsen; Sabouri, Azam; Soltanshahi, Rambod; Biderafsh, Azam; Piri, Naser; Lee, Jong-Koo

2017-08-05

Documentation of achieving the goal of measles elimination to justify to international organizations including the WHO is a priority for public health authorities. This study aimed to address the status of Iran in the achievement of the measles elimination goal from 2012-2014. A descriptive study METHODS: Data on the measles outbreaks were extracted from the national notifiable measles surveillance system in Iran from 2012 to 2014. The required documents regarding the achievement of measles elimination, including Effective Reproduction Number (R) and the distribution of outbreak size, was addressed. The R was calculated using the proportion of imported cases as 1 - P, where P is equal to the proportion of cases that were imported. The distribution of the measles outbreaks size was described using descriptive statistics to show their magnitudes. The proportion of large outbreaks with more than 10 cases was considered as a proxy of the R value. The total number of measles cases was 232 cases (including 186 outbreak related cases) in 2012 and 142 cases in 2014, including108 outbreak related cases. The distribution of the measles outbreak size of occurred outbreaks from that period indicated that there were 37 outbreaks with three or more than three cases. The R value in 2012 was 0.87 and the corresponding value for 2014 was 0.76. According to the magnitude of effective reproduction number and distribution of outbreaks' size, measles has been eliminated in Iran. However, it is necessary to consider the potential endemic activity of measles because of no authorized immigration.

Diagnostic schemes for reducing epidemic size of African viral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

PubMed

Okeke, Iruka N; Manning, Robert S; Pfeiffer, Thomas

2014-09-12

Viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks, with high mortality rates, have often been amplified in African health institutions due to person-to-person transmission via infected body fluids.  By collating and analyzing epidemiological data from documented outbreaks, we observed that diagnostic delay contributes to epidemic size for Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. We used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model and data from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo, to simulate Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Our model allows us to describe the dynamics for hospital staff separately from that for the general population, and to implement health worker-specific interventions. The model illustrates that implementing World Health Organization/US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines of isolating patients who do not respond to antimalarial and antibacterial chemotherapy reduces total outbreak size, from a median of 236, by 90% or more. Routinely employing diagnostic testing in post-mortems of patients that died of refractory fevers reduces the median outbreak size by a further 60%. Even greater reductions in outbreak size were seen when all febrile patients were tested for endemic infections or when febrile health-care workers were tested.  The effect of testing strategies was not impaired by the 1-3 day delay that would occur if testing were performed by a reference laboratory. In addition to improving the quality of care for common causes of febrile infections, increased and strategic use of laboratory diagnostics for fever could reduce the chance of hospital amplification of VHFs in resource-limited African health systems.

Outbreak investigations--a perspective.

PubMed Central

Reingold, A. L.

1998-01-01

Outbreak investigations, an important and challenging component of epidemiology and public health, can help identify the source of ongoing outbreaks and prevent additional cases. Even when an outbreak is over, a thorough epidemiologic and environmental investigation often can increase our knowledge of a given disease and prevent future outbreaks. Finally, outbreak investigations provide epidemiologic training and foster cooperation between the clinical and public health communities. PMID:9452395

Outbreaks, gene flow and effective population size in the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria: a regional-scale comparative survey.

PubMed

Chapuis, Marie-Pierre; Loiseau, Anne; Michalakis, Yannis; Lecoq, Michel; Franc, Alex; Estoup, Arnaud

2009-03-01

The potential effect of population outbreaks on within and between genetic variation of populations in pest species has rarely been assessed. In this study, we compare patterns of genetic variation in different sets of historically frequently outbreaking and rarely outbreaking populations of an agricultural pest of major importance, the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria. We analyse genetic variation within and between 24 populations at 14 microsatellites in Western Europe, where only ancient and low-intensity outbreaks have been reported (non-outbreaking populations), and in Madagascar and Northern China, where frequent and intense outbreak events have been recorded over the last century (outbreaking populations). Our comparative survey shows that (i) the long-term effective population size is similar in outbreaking and non-outbreaking populations, as evidenced by similar estimates of genetic diversity, and (ii) gene flow is substantially larger among outbreaking populations than among non-outbreaking populations, as evidenced by a fourfold to 30-fold difference in FST values. We discuss the implications for population dynamics and the consequences for management strategies of the observed patterns of genetic variation in L. migratoria populations with contrasting historical outbreak frequency and extent.

Using phenomenological models for forecasting the 2015 Ebola challenge.

PubMed

Pell, Bruce; Kuang, Yang; Viboud, Cecile; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-03-01

The rising number of novel pathogens threatening the human population has motivated the application of mathematical modeling for forecasting the trajectory and size of epidemics. We summarize the real-time forecasting results of the logistic equation during the 2015 Ebola challenge focused on predicting synthetic data derived from a detailed individual-based model of Ebola transmission dynamics and control. We also carry out a post-challenge comparison of two simple phenomenological models. In particular, we systematically compare the logistic growth model and a recently introduced generalized Richards model (GRM) that captures a range of early epidemic growth profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. Specifically, we assess the performance of each model for estimating the reproduction number, generate short-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory, and predict the final epidemic size. During the challenge the logistic equation consistently underestimated the final epidemic size, peak timing and the number of cases at peak timing with an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.49, 0.36 and 0.40, respectively. Post-challenge, the GRM which has the flexibility to reproduce a range of epidemic growth profiles ranging from early sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics outperformed the logistic growth model in ascertaining the final epidemic size as more incidence data was made available, while the logistic model underestimated the final epidemic even with an increasing amount of data of the evolving epidemic. Incidence forecasts provided by the generalized Richards model performed better across all scenarios and time points than the logistic growth model with mean RMS decreasing from 78.00 (logistic) to 60.80 (GRM). Both models provided reasonable predictions of the effective reproduction number, but the GRM slightly outperformed the logistic growth model with a MAPE of 0.08 compared to 0.10, averaged across all scenarios and time points. Our findings further support the consideration of transmission models that incorporate flexible early epidemic growth profiles in the forecasting toolkit. Such models are particularly useful for quickly evaluating a developing infectious disease outbreak using only case incidence time series of the early phase of an infectious disease outbreak. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are staff management practices and inspection risk ratings associated with foodborne disease outbreaks in the catering industry in England and Wales?

PubMed

Jones, Sarah L; Parry, Sharon M; O'Brien, Sarah J; Palmer, Stephen R

2008-03-01

Despite structured enforcement of food hygiene requirements known to prevent foodborne disease outbreaks, catering businesses continue to be the most common setting for outbreaks in the United Kingdom. In a matched case control study of catering businesses, 148 businesses associated with outbreaks were compared with 148 control businesses. Hazard analysis critical control point systems and/or formal food hygiene training qualifications were not protective. Food hygiene inspection scores were not useful in predicting which catering businesses were associated with outbreaks. Businesses associated with outbreaks were more likely to be larger small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) or to serve Chinese cuisine and less likely to have the owner or manager working in the kitchen, but when size of the SME was taken into account these two differences were no longer significant. In larger businesses, case businesses were more likely to be hotels and were more commonly associated with viral foodborne outbreaks, but there was no explanation within the data for this association.

Identifying an influential spreader from a single seed in complex networks via a message-passing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Byungjoon

2018-01-01

Identifying the most influential spreaders is one of outstanding problems in physics of complex systems. So far, many approaches have attempted to rank the influence of nodes but there is still the lack of accuracy to single out influential spreaders. Here, we directly tackle the problem of finding important spreaders by solving analytically the expected size of epidemic outbreaks when spreading originates from a single seed. We derive and validate a theory for calculating the size of epidemic outbreaks with a single seed using a message-passing approach. In addition, we find that the probability to occur epidemic outbreaks is highly dependent on the location of the seed but the size of epidemic outbreaks once it occurs is insensitive to the seed. We also show that our approach can be successfully adapted into weighted networks.

Nanopore Sequencing as a Rapidly Deployable Ebola Outbreak Tool.

PubMed

Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Rosenke, Kyle; Fischer, Robert J; Hoenen, Andreas; Judson, Seth D; Martellaro, Cynthia; Falzarano, Darryl; Marzi, Andrea; Squires, R Burke; Wollenberg, Kurt R; de Wit, Emmie; Prescott, Joseph; Safronetz, David; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Bushmaker, Trenton; Feldmann, Friederike; McNally, Kristin; Bolay, Fatorma K; Fields, Barry; Sealy, Tara; Rayfield, Mark; Nichol, Stuart T; Zoon, Kathryn C; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J; Feldmann, Heinz

2016-02-01

Rapid sequencing of RNA/DNA from pathogen samples obtained during disease outbreaks provides critical scientific and public health information. However, challenges exist for exporting samples to laboratories or establishing conventional sequencers in remote outbreak regions. We successfully used a novel, pocket-sized nanopore sequencer at a field diagnostic laboratory in Liberia during the current Ebola virus outbreak.

Major outbreaks of the Douglas-fir tussock moth in Oregon and California.

Treesearch

Boyd E. Wickman; Richard R. Mason; C.G. Thompson

1973-01-01

Case histories of five tussock moth outbreaks that occurred in California and Oregon between 1935 and 1965 are discussed. Information is given on the size and duration of the outbreaks, the presence of natural control agents and the damage caused. Most of the outbreaks were eventually treated with DDT. However, enough information was available from untreated portions...

Nanopore Sequencing as a Rapidly Deployable Ebola Outbreak Tool

PubMed Central

Groseth, Allison; Rosenke, Kyle; Fischer, Robert J.; Hoenen, Andreas; Judson, Seth D.; Martellaro, Cynthia; Falzarano, Darryl; Marzi, Andrea; Squires, R. Burke; Wollenberg, Kurt R.; de Wit, Emmie; Prescott, Joseph; Safronetz, David; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Bushmaker, Trenton; Feldmann, Friederike; McNally, Kristin; Bolay, Fatorma K.; Fields, Barry; Sealy, Tara; Rayfield, Mark; Nichol, Stuart T.; Zoon, Kathryn C.; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J.; Feldmann, Heinz

2016-01-01

Rapid sequencing of RNA/DNA from pathogen samples obtained during disease outbreaks provides critical scientific and public health information. However, challenges exist for exporting samples to laboratories or establishing conventional sequencers in remote outbreak regions. We successfully used a novel, pocket-sized nanopore sequencer at a field diagnostic laboratory in Liberia during the current Ebola virus outbreak. PMID:26812583

An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

PubMed Central

Fisman, David N.; Hauck, Tanya S.; Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Greer, Amy L.

2013-01-01

Background Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. PMID:24391797

An IDEA for short term outbreak projection: nearcasting using the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Fisman, David N; Hauck, Tanya S; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Greer, Amy L

2013-01-01

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1(th) serial interval using data from the i(th) serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.

Auditing the management of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks: the need for a tool.

PubMed

Torner, Nuria; Carnicer-Pont, Dolors; Castilla, Jesus; Cayla, Joan; Godoy, Pere; Dominguez, Angela

2011-01-13

Public health activities, especially infectious disease control, depend on effective teamwork. We present the results of a pilot audit questionnaire aimed at assessing the quality of public health services in the management of VPD outbreaks. Audit questionnaire with three main areas indicators (structure, process and results) was developed. Guidelines were set and each indicator was assessed by three auditors. Differences in indicator scores according to median size of outbreaks were determined by ANOVA (significance at p≤0.05). Of 154 outbreaks; eighteen indicators had a satisfactory mean score, indicator "updated guidelines" and "timely reporting" had a poor mean score (2.84±106 and 2.44±1.67, respectively). Statistically significant differences were found according to outbreak size, in the indicators "availability of guidelines/protocol updated less than 3 years ago" (p = 0.03) and "days needed for outbreak control" (p = 0.04). Improving availability of updated guidelines, enhancing timely reporting and adequate recording of control procedures taken is needed to allow for management assessment and improvement.

The role of heterogeneity in contact timing and duration in network models of influenza spread in schools

PubMed Central

Toth, Damon J. A.; Leecaster, Molly; Pettey, Warren B. P.; Gundlapalli, Adi V.; Gao, Hongjiang; Rainey, Jeanette J.; Uzicanin, Amra; Samore, Matthew H.

2015-01-01

Influenza poses a significant health threat to children, and schools may play a critical role in community outbreaks. Mathematical outbreak models require assumptions about contact rates and patterns among students, but the level of temporal granularity required to produce reliable results is unclear. We collected objective contact data from students aged 5–14 at an elementary school and middle school in the state of Utah, USA, and paired those data with a novel, data-based model of influenza transmission in schools. Our simulations produced within-school transmission averages consistent with published estimates. We compared simulated outbreaks over the full resolution dynamic network with simulations on networks with averaged representations of contact timing and duration. For both schools, averaging the timing of contacts over one or two school days caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 1–8%. Averaging both contact timing and pairwise contact durations caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 10% at the middle school and 72% at the elementary school. Averaging contact durations separately across within-class and between-class contacts reduced the increase for the elementary school to 5%. Thus, the effect of ignoring details about contact timing and duration in school contact networks on outbreak size modelling can vary across different schools. PMID:26063821

Evaluation of movement restriction zone sizes in controlling classical swine fever outbreaks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to compare the movement restriction zone sizes of 3-km, 5-km, 9-km, and 11-km with that of 7-km in controlling a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak. Three assumptions of compliance level were considered: baseline, baseline ±10%, and baseline ±15%. The compliance lev...

The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: a mathematic analysis.

PubMed

Bogaards, Johannes Antonie; Putter, Hein; Jan Weverling, Gerrit; Ter Meulen, Jan; Goudsmit, Jaap

2007-03-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak. We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number R, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios. Assuming a basic reproduction number R(0)=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce R below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration. Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher R(0) values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.

Infectious diseases and their outbreaks in Asia-Pacific: biodiversity and its regulation loss matter.

PubMed

Morand, Serge; Jittapalapong, Sathaporn; Suputtamongkol, Yupin; Abdullah, Mohd Tajuddin; Huan, Tan Boon

2014-01-01

Despite increasing control measures, numerous parasitic and infectious diseases are emerging, re-emerging or causing recurrent outbreaks particularly in Asia and the Pacific region, a hot spot of both infectious disease emergence and biodiversity at risk. We investigate how biodiversity affects the distribution of infectious diseases and their outbreaks in this region, taking into account socio-economics (population size, GDP, public health expenditure), geography (latitude and nation size), climate (precipitation, temperature) and biodiversity (bird and mammal species richness, forest cover, mammal and bird species at threat). We show, among countries, that the overall richness of infectious diseases is positively correlated with the richness of birds and mammals, but the number of zoonotic disease outbreaks is positively correlated with the number of threatened mammal and bird species and the number of vector-borne disease outbreaks is negatively correlated with forest cover. These results suggest that, among countries, biodiversity is a source of pathogens, but also that the loss of biodiversity or its regulation, as measured by forest cover or threatened species, seems to be associated with an increase in zoonotic and vector-borne disease outbreaks.

Inferring global network properties from egocentric data with applications to epidemics.

PubMed

Britton, Tom; Trapman, Pieter

2015-03-01

Social networks are often only partly observed, and it is sometimes desirable to infer global properties of the network from 'egocentric' data. In the current paper, we study different types of egocentric data, and show which global network properties are consistent with data. Two global network properties are considered: the size of the largest connected component (the giant) and the size of an epidemic outbreak taking place on the network. The main conclusion is that, in most cases, egocentric data allow for a large range of possible sizes of the giant and the outbreak, implying that egocentric data carry very little information about these global properties. The asymptotic size of the giant and the outbreak is also characterized, assuming the network is selected uniformly among networks with prescribed egocentric data. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of Clusters of Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157 Detected by Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis that Predict Identification of Outbreaks.

PubMed

Jones, Timothy F; Sashti, Nupur; Ingram, Amanda; Phan, Quyen; Booth, Hillary; Rounds, Joshua; Nicholson, Cyndy S; Cosgrove, Shaun; Crocker, Kia; Gould, L Hannah

2016-12-01

Molecular subtyping of pathogens is critical for foodborne disease outbreak detection and investigation. Many clusters initially identified by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) are not confirmed as point-source outbreaks. We evaluated characteristics of clusters that can help prioritize investigations to maximize effective use of limited resources. A multiagency collaboration (FoodNet) collected data on Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157 clusters for 3 years. Cluster size, timing, extent, and nature of epidemiologic investigations were analyzed to determine associations with whether the cluster was identified as a confirmed outbreak. During the 3-year study period, 948 PFGE clusters were identified; 849 (90%) were Salmonella and 99 (10%) were E. coli O157. Of those, 192 (20%) were ultimately identified as outbreaks (154 [18%] of Salmonella and 38 [38%] of E. coli O157 clusters). Successful investigation was significantly associated with larger cluster size, more rapid submission of isolates (e.g., for Salmonella, 6 days for outbreaks vs. 8 days for nonoutbreaks) and PFGE result reporting to investigators (16 days vs. 29 days, respectively), and performance of analytic studies (completed in 33% of Salmonella outbreaks vs. 1% of nonoutbreaks) and environmental investigations (40% and 1%, respectively). Intervals between first and second cases in a cluster did not differ significantly between outbreaks and nonoutbreaks. Molecular subtyping of pathogens is a rapidly advancing technology, and successfully identifying outbreaks will vary by pathogen and methods used. Understanding criteria for successfully investigating outbreaks is critical for efficiently using limited resources.

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

PubMed

Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Evidence of compounded disturbance effects on vegetation recovery following high-severity wildfire and spruce beetle outbreak

Treesearch

Amanda R. Carlson; Jason S. Sibold; Timothy J. Assal; Jose F. Negron

2017-01-01

Spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks are rapidly spreading throughout subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, raising concerns that altered fuel structures may increase the ecological severity of wildfires. Although many recent studies have found no conclusive link between beetle outbreaks and increased fire size or canopy mortality, few studies have...

Estimating the Burden of Disease Associated with Outbreaks Reported to the U.S. Waterborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System: Identifying Limitations and Improvements (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

This report demonstrates how data from the Waterborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) can be used to estimate disease burden and presents results using 30 years of data. This systematic analysis does not attempt to provide an estimate of the actual incidence and b...

Effective Network Size Predicted From Simulations of Pathogen Outbreaks Through Social Networks Provides a Novel Measure of Structure-Standardized Group Size.

PubMed

McCabe, Collin M; Nunn, Charles L

2018-01-01

The transmission of infectious disease through a population is often modeled assuming that interactions occur randomly in groups, with all individuals potentially interacting with all other individuals at an equal rate. However, it is well known that pairs of individuals vary in their degree of contact. Here, we propose a measure to account for such heterogeneity: effective network size (ENS), which refers to the size of a maximally complete network (i.e., unstructured, where all individuals interact with all others equally) that corresponds to the outbreak characteristics of a given heterogeneous, structured network. We simulated susceptible-infected (SI) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models on maximally complete networks to produce idealized outbreak duration distributions for a disease on a network of a given size. We also simulated the transmission of these same diseases on random structured networks and then used the resulting outbreak duration distributions to predict the ENS for the group or population. We provide the methods to reproduce these analyses in a public R package, "enss." Outbreak durations of simulations on randomly structured networks were more variable than those on complete networks, but tended to have similar mean durations of disease spread. We then applied our novel metric to empirical primate networks taken from the literature and compared the information represented by our ENSs to that by other established social network metrics. In AICc model comparison frameworks, group size and mean distance proved to be the metrics most consistently associated with ENS for SI simulations, while group size, centralization, and modularity were most consistently associated with ENS for SIR simulations. In all cases, ENS was shown to be associated with at least two other independent metrics, supporting its use as a novel metric. Overall, our study provides a proof of concept for simulation-based approaches toward constructing metrics of ENS, while also revealing the conditions under which this approach is most promising.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon.

PubMed

Preisler, Haiganoush K; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Ager, Alan A; Hayes, Jane L

2012-11-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15 degrees C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5x increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.

Performance of eHealth data sources in local influenza surveillance: a 5-year open cohort study.

PubMed

Timpka, Toomas; Spreco, Armin; Dahlström, Örjan; Eriksson, Olle; Gursky, Elin; Ekberg, Joakim; Blomqvist, Eva; Strömgren, Magnus; Karlsson, David; Eriksson, Henrik; Nyce, James; Hinkula, Jorma; Holm, Einar

2014-04-28

There is abundant global interest in using syndromic data from population-wide health information systems--referred to as eHealth resources--to improve infectious disease surveillance. Recently, the necessity for these systems to achieve two potentially conflicting requirements has been emphasized. First, they must be evidence-based; second, they must be adjusted for the diversity of populations, lifestyles, and environments. The primary objective was to examine correlations between data from Google Flu Trends (GFT), computer-supported telenursing centers, health service websites, and influenza case rates during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. The secondary objective was to investigate associations between eHealth data, media coverage, and the interaction between circulating influenza strain(s) and the age-related population immunity. An open cohort design was used for a five-year study in a Swedish county (population 427,000). Syndromic eHealth data were collected from GFT, telenursing call centers, and local health service website visits at page level. Data on mass media coverage of influenza was collected from the major regional newspaper. The performance of eHealth data in surveillance was measured by correlation effect size and time lag to clinically diagnosed influenza cases. Local media coverage data and influenza case rates showed correlations with large effect sizes only for the influenza A (A) pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.74, 95% CI .42-.90; P<.001) and the severe seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2011-2012 (r=.79, 95% CI .42-.93; P=.001), with media coverage preceding case rates with one week. Correlations between GFT and influenza case data showed large effect sizes for all outbreaks, the largest being the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.96, 95% CI .88-.99; P<.001). The preceding time lag decreased from two weeks during the first outbreaks to one week from the 2009 A pH1N1 pandemic. Telenursing data and influenza case data showed correlations with large effect sizes for all outbreaks after the seasonal B and A H1 outbreak in 2007-2008, with a time lag decreasing from two weeks for the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.95, 95% CI .82-.98; P<.001) to none for the A p H1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.84, 95% CI .62-.94; P<.001). Large effect sizes were also observed between website visits and influenza case data. Correlations between the eHealth data and influenza case rates in a Swedish county showed large effect sizes throughout a five-year period, while the time lag between signals in eHealth data and influenza rates changed. Further research is needed on analytic methods for adjusting eHealth surveillance systems to shifts in media coverage and to variations in age-group related immunity between virus strains. The results can be used to inform the development of alert-generating eHealth surveillance systems that can be subject for prospective evaluations in routine public health practice.

Performance of eHealth Data Sources in Local Influenza Surveillance: A 5-Year Open Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Spreco, Armin; Dahlström, Örjan; Eriksson, Olle; Gursky, Elin; Ekberg, Joakim; Blomqvist, Eva; Strömgren, Magnus; Karlsson, David; Eriksson, Henrik; Nyce, James; Hinkula, Jorma; Holm, Einar

2014-01-01

Background There is abundant global interest in using syndromic data from population-wide health information systems—referred to as eHealth resources—to improve infectious disease surveillance. Recently, the necessity for these systems to achieve two potentially conflicting requirements has been emphasized. First, they must be evidence-based; second, they must be adjusted for the diversity of populations, lifestyles, and environments. Objective The primary objective was to examine correlations between data from Google Flu Trends (GFT), computer-supported telenursing centers, health service websites, and influenza case rates during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. The secondary objective was to investigate associations between eHealth data, media coverage, and the interaction between circulating influenza strain(s) and the age-related population immunity. Methods An open cohort design was used for a five-year study in a Swedish county (population 427,000). Syndromic eHealth data were collected from GFT, telenursing call centers, and local health service website visits at page level. Data on mass media coverage of influenza was collected from the major regional newspaper. The performance of eHealth data in surveillance was measured by correlation effect size and time lag to clinically diagnosed influenza cases. Results Local media coverage data and influenza case rates showed correlations with large effect sizes only for the influenza A (A) pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.74, 95% CI .42-.90; P<.001) and the severe seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2011-2012 (r=.79, 95% CI .42-.93; P=.001), with media coverage preceding case rates with one week. Correlations between GFT and influenza case data showed large effect sizes for all outbreaks, the largest being the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.96, 95% CI .88-.99; P<.001). The preceding time lag decreased from two weeks during the first outbreaks to one week from the 2009 A pH1N1 pandemic. Telenursing data and influenza case data showed correlations with large effect sizes for all outbreaks after the seasonal B and A H1 outbreak in 2007-2008, with a time lag decreasing from two weeks for the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.95, 95% CI .82-.98; P<.001) to none for the A p H1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.84, 95% CI .62-.94; P<.001). Large effect sizes were also observed between website visits and influenza case data. Conclusions Correlations between the eHealth data and influenza case rates in a Swedish county showed large effect sizes throughout a five-year period, while the time lag between signals in eHealth data and influenza rates changed. Further research is needed on analytic methods for adjusting eHealth surveillance systems to shifts in media coverage and to variations in age-group related immunity between virus strains. The results can be used to inform the development of alert-generating eHealth surveillance systems that can be subject for prospective evaluations in routine public health practice. PMID:24776527

Identification, virulence, and mass spectrometry of toxic ECP fractions of West Alabama isolates of Aeromonas hydrophila obtained from a 2010 disease outbreak

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In West Alabama, disease outbreaks in 2009 caused by Aeromonas hydrophila have led to an estimated loss of more than $3 million. In 2010, disease outbreak occurred again in West Alabama, causing losses of hundreds of thousands of pounds of market size channel catfish. During the 2010 disease outbrea...

What tree-ring reconstruction tells us about conifer defoliator outbreaks

Treesearch

Ann M. Lynch

2012-01-01

Our ability to understand the dynamics of forest insect outbreaks is limited by the lack of long-term data describing the temporal and spatial trends of outbreaks, the size and long life span of host plants, and the impracticability of manipulative experiments at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Population responses can be studied across varying site and stand...

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

PubMed

Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

2017-12-01

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE PAGES

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen; ...

2017-07-13

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication

PubMed Central

Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A.; Aylward, R. Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C.

2016-01-01

As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities. PMID:26890053

Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication.

PubMed

Blake, Isobel M; Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A; Aylward, R Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C

2016-03-01

As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities.

Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis.

PubMed

Ackley, Sarah F; Hacker, Jill K; Enanoria, Wayne T A; Worden, Lee; Blumberg, Seth; Porco, Travis C; Zipprich, Jennifer

2018-04-03

Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences in measles transmission by estimating the association between genotype and the reproduction number R among postelimination California measles cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks). Assuming a negative binomial secondary case distribution, we fit a branching process model to the distribution of outbreak sizes using maximum likelihood and estimated the reproduction number R for a multigenotype model. Genotype B3 is found to be significantly more transmissible than other genotypes (P = .01) with an R of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], .48-.71), while the R for all other genotypes combined is 0.43 (95% CI, .28-.54). This result is robust to excluding the 2014-2015 outbreak linked to Disneyland theme parks (referred to as "outbreak A" for conciseness and clarity) (P = .04) and modeling genotype as a random effect (P = .004 including outbreak A and P = .02 excluding outbreak A). This result was not accounted for by season of introduction, age of index case, or vaccination of the index case. The R for outbreaks with a school-aged index case is 0.69 (95% CI, .52-.78), while the R for outbreaks with a non-school-aged index case is 0.28 (95% CI, .19-.35), but this cannot account for differences between genotypes. Variability in measles transmissibility may have important implications for measles control; the vaccination threshold required for elimination may not be the same for all genotypes or age groups.

Surveillance for waterborne disease outbreaks associated with drinking water and other nonrecreational water - United States, 2009-2010.

PubMed

2013-09-06

Despite advances in water management and sanitation, waterborne disease outbreaks continue to occur in the United States. CDC collects data on waterborne disease outbreaks submitted from all states and territories through the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System. During 2009-2010, the most recent years for which finalized data are available, 33 drinking water-associated outbreaks were reported, comprising 1,040 cases of illness, 85 hospitalizations, and nine deaths. Legionella accounted for 58% of outbreaks and 7% of illnesses, and Campylobacter accounted for 12% of outbreaks and 78% of illnesses. The most commonly identified outbreak deficiencies in drinking water-associated outbreaks were Legionella in plumbing systems (57.6%), untreated ground water (24.2%), and distribution system deficiencies (12.1%), suggesting that efforts to identify and correct these deficiencies could prevent many outbreaks and illnesses associated with drinking water. In addition to the drinking water outbreaks, 12 outbreaks associated with other nonrecreational water were reported, comprising 234 cases of illness, 51 hospitalizations, and six deaths. Legionella accounted for 58% of these outbreaks, 42% of illnesses, 96% of hospitalizations, and all deaths. Public health, regulatory, and industry professionals can use this information to target prevention efforts against pathogens, infrastructure problems, and water sources associated with waterborne disease outbreaks.

Outbreaks of Illness Associated with Recreational Water--United States, 2011-2012.

PubMed

Hlavsa, Michele C; Roberts, Virginia A; Kahler, Amy M; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Mecher, Taryn R; Beach, Michael J; Wade, Timothy J; Yoder, Jonathan S

2015-06-26

Outbreaks of illness associated with recreational water use result from exposure to chemicals or infectious pathogens in recreational water venues that are treated (e.g., pools and hot tubs or spas) or untreated (e.g., lakes and oceans). For 2011-2012, the most recent years for which finalized data were available, public health officials from 32 states and Puerto Rico reported 90 recreational water-associated outbreaks to CDC's Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) via the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS). The 90 outbreaks resulted in at least 1,788 cases, 95 hospitalizations, and one death. Among 69 (77%) outbreaks associated with treated recreational water, 36 (52%) were caused by Cryptosporidium. Among 21 (23%) outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water, seven (33%) were caused by Escherichia coli (E. coli O157:H7 or E. coli O111). Guidance, such as the Model Aquatic Health Code (MAHC), for preventing and controlling recreational water-associated outbreaks can be optimized when informed by national outbreak and laboratory (e.g., molecular typing of Cryptosporidium) data.

Recreational water-associated disease outbreaks--United States, 2009-2010.

PubMed

Hlavsa, Michele C; Roberts, Virginia A; Kahler, Amy M; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Wade, Timothy J; Backer, Lorraine C; Yoder, Jonathan S

2014-01-10

Recreational water-associated disease outbreaks result from exposure to infectious pathogens or chemical agents in treated recreational water venues (e.g., pools and hot tubs or spas) or untreated recreational water venues (e.g., lakes and oceans). For 2009-2010, the most recent years for which finalized data are available, public health officials from 28 states and Puerto Rico electronically reported 81 recreational water-associated disease outbreaks to CDC's Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) via the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS). This report summarizes the characteristics of those outbreaks. Among the 57 outbreaks associated with treated recreational water, 24 (42%) were caused by Cryptosporidium. Among the 24 outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water, 11 (46%) were confirmed or suspected to have been caused by cyanobacterial toxins. In total, the 81 outbreaks resulted in at least 1,326 cases of illness and 62 hospitalizations; no deaths were reported. Laboratory and environmental data, in addition to epidemiologic data, can be used to direct and optimize the prevention and control of recreational water-associated disease outbreaks.

[Study of tuberculosis outbreaks reported in Catalonia, 1998-2002].

PubMed

Bran, Carlos M; Caylá, Joan A; Domínguez, Angela; Camps, Neus; Godoy, Pere; Orcau, Angels; Barrabeig, Irene; Alcaide, José; Altet, Neus; Alvarez, Pep

2006-06-01

To analyze the characteristics of tuberculosis outbreaks declared under vigilance programs in Catalonia. Descriptive study of outbreaks from 1998 through 2002 for which reports were available. An outbreak was defined as 3 or more associated cases appearing within a year. For 2 health care regions, outbreaks for which there were full surveillance reports with contact tracing were compared to outbreaks identified but which had not been fully reported. Twenty-seven outbreaks were analyzed. Nineteen (70%) occurred within families. A total of 22 outbreaks were declared upon identification of the true index case and 5 upon detection of secondary cases. The mean annual incidence of outbreaks was 0.40/100,100 inhabitants. Most cases were in males 16 to 40 years of age and involved cavitary lesions and a clinically significant diagnostic delay. Twenty-seven outbreaks caused 69 secondary cases. A longer diagnostic delay was seen to correspond to a larger number of secondary cases (P=.08). In the 2 health care regions analyzed, full surveillance reports with contact tracing were issued for 2 of the 14 outbreaks detected (14.4%). Tuberculosis outbreaks are common but investigative follow-up is scarce. The size of the outbreak is related to the length of diagnostic delay. Rapid diagnosis, contact tracing, and the issuance of a public health report should be priorities in all outbreaks detected.

A Statistical Model of the International Spread of Wild Poliovirus in Africa Used to Predict and Prevent Outbreaks

PubMed Central

O'Reilly, Kathleen M.; Chauvin, Claire; Aylward, R. Bruce; Maher, Chris; Okiror, Sam; Wolff, Chris; Nshmirimana, Deo; Donnelly, Christl A.; Grassly, Nicholas C.

2011-01-01

Background Outbreaks of poliomyelitis in African countries that were previously free of wild-type poliovirus cost the Global Polio Eradication Initiative US$850 million during 2003–2009, and have limited the ability of the program to focus on endemic countries. A quantitative understanding of the factors that predict the distribution and timing of outbreaks will enable their prevention and facilitate the completion of global eradication. Methods and Findings Children with poliomyelitis in Africa from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2010 were identified through routine surveillance of cases of acute flaccid paralysis, and separate outbreaks associated with importation of wild-type poliovirus were defined using the genetic relatedness of these viruses in the VP1/2A region. Potential explanatory variables were examined for their association with the number, size, and duration of poliomyelitis outbreaks in 6-mo periods using multivariable regression analysis. The predictive ability of 6-mo-ahead forecasts of poliomyelitis outbreaks in each country based on the regression model was assessed. A total of 142 genetically distinct outbreaks of poliomyelitis were recorded in 25 African countries, resulting in 1–228 cases (median of two cases). The estimated number of people arriving from infected countries and <5-y childhood mortality were independently associated with the number of outbreaks. Immunisation coverage based on the reported vaccination history of children with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis was associated with the duration and size of each outbreak, as well as the number of outbreaks. Six-month-ahead forecasts of the number of outbreaks in a country or region changed over time and had a predictive ability of 82%. Conclusions Outbreaks of poliomyelitis resulted primarily from continued transmission in Nigeria and the poor immunisation status of populations in neighbouring countries. From 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2011, reduced transmission in Nigeria and increased incidence in reinfected countries in west and central Africa have changed the geographical risk of polio outbreaks, and will require careful immunisation planning to limit onward spread. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22028632

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

PubMed

Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

2013-02-01

Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

PubMed

Werkman, Marleen; Tildesley, Michael J; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Keeling, Matt J

2016-12-01

Mathematical models are invaluable tools for quantifying potential epidemics and devising optimal control strategies in case of an outbreak. State-of-the-art models increasingly require detailed individual farm-based and sensitive data, which may not be available due to either lack of capacity for data collection or privacy concerns. However, in many situations, aggregated data are available for use. In this study, we systematically investigate the accuracy of predictions made by mathematical models initialised with varying data aggregations, using the UK 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic as a case study. We consider the scenario when the only data available are aggregated into spatial grid cells, and develop a metapopulation model where individual farms in a single subpopulation are assumed to behave uniformly and transmit randomly. We also adapt this standard metapopulation model to capture heterogeneity in farm size and composition, using farm census data. Our results show that homogeneous models based on aggregated data overestimate final epidemic size but can perform well for predicting spatial spread. Recognising heterogeneity in farm sizes improves predictions of the final epidemic size, identifying risk areas, determining the likelihood of epidemic take-off and identifying the optimal control strategy. In conclusion, in cases where individual farm-based data are not available, models can still generate meaningful predictions, although care must be taken in their interpretation and use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

On the Evolutionary History, Population Genetics and Diversity among Isolates of Salmonella Enteritidis PFGE Pattern JEGX01.0004

PubMed Central

Allard, Marc W.; Luo, Yan; Strain, Errol; Pettengill, James; Timme, Ruth; Wang, Charles; Li, Cong; Keys, Christine E.; Zheng, Jie; Stones, Robert; Wilson, Mark R.; Musser, Steven M.; Brown, Eric W.

2013-01-01

Facile laboratory tools are needed to augment identification in contamination events to trace the contamination back to the source (traceback) of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis). Understanding the evolution and diversity within and among outbreak strains is the first step towards this goal. To this end, we collected 106 new S. Enteriditis isolates within S. Enteriditis Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) pattern JEGX01.0004 and close relatives, and determined their genome sequences. Sources for these isolates spanned food, clinical and environmental farm sources collected during the 2010 S. Enteritidis shell egg outbreak in the United States along with closely related serovars, S. Dublin, S. Gallinarum biovar Pullorum and S. Gallinarum. Despite the highly homogeneous structure of this population, S. Enteritidis isolates examined in this study revealed thousands of SNP differences and numerous variable genes (n = 366). Twenty-one of these genes from the lineages leading to outbreak-associated samples had nonsynonymous (causing amino acid changes) changes and five genes are putatively involved in known Salmonella virulence pathways. While chromosome synteny and genome organization appeared to be stable among these isolates, genome size differences were observed due to variation in the presence or absence of several phages and plasmids, including phage RE-2010, phage P125109, plasmid pSEEE3072_19 (similar to pSENV), plasmid pOU1114 and two newly observed mobile plasmid elements pSEEE1729_15 and pSEEE0956_35. These differences produced modifications to the assembled bases for these draft genomes in the size range of approximately 4.6 to 4.8 mbp, with S. Dublin being larger (∼4.9 mbp) and S. Gallinarum smaller (4.55 mbp) when compared to S. Enteritidis. Finally, we identified variable S. Enteritidis genes associated with virulence pathways that may be useful markers for the development of rapid surveillance and typing methods, potentially aiding in traceback efforts during future outbreaks involving S. Enteritidis PFGE pattern JEGX01.0004. PMID:23383127

Discrete epidemic models with arbitrary stage distributions and applications to disease control.

PubMed

Hernandez-Ceron, Nancy; Feng, Zhilan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2013-10-01

W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick introduced in their fundamental paper, A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, published in 1927, a deterministic model that captured the qualitative dynamic behavior of single infectious disease outbreaks. A Kermack–McKendrick discrete-time general framework, motivated by the emergence of a multitude of models used to forecast the dynamics of epidemics, is introduced in this manuscript. Results that allow us to measure quantitatively the role of classical and general distributions on disease dynamics are presented. The case of the geometric distribution is used to evaluate the impact of waiting-time distributions on epidemiological processes or public health interventions. In short, the geometric distribution is used to set up the baseline or null epidemiological model used to test the relevance of realistic stage-period distribution on the dynamics of single epidemic outbreaks. A final size relationship involving the control reproduction number, a function of transmission parameters and the means of distributions used to model disease or intervention control measures, is computed. Model results and simulations highlight the inconsistencies in forecasting that emerge from the use of specific parametric distributions. Examples, using the geometric, Poisson and binomial distributions, are used to highlight the impact of the choices made in quantifying the risk posed by single outbreaks and the relative importance of various control measures.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between WNV dissemination and environmental variables in Indianapolis, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Weng, Qihao; Gaines, David

2008-12-18

This study developed a multi-temporal analysis on the relationship between West Nile Virus (WNV) dissemination and environmental variables by using an integrated approach of remote sensing, GIS, and statistical techniques. WNV mosquito cases in seven months (April-October) of the six years (2002-2007) were collected in Indianapolis, USA. Epidemic curves were plotted to identify the temporal outbreaks of WNV. Spatial-temporal analysis and k-mean cluster analysis were further applied to determine the high-risk areas. Finally, the relationship between environmental variables and WNV outbreaks were examined by using Discriminant Analysis. The results show that the WNV epidemic curve reached its peak in August for all years in the study area except in 2007, where the peak was reached in July. WNV dissemination started from the central longitudinal corridor of the city and spread out to the east and west. Different years and seasons had different high-risk areas, but the southwest and southeast corners show the highest risk for WNV infection due to their high percentages of agriculture and water sources. Major environmental factors contributing to the outbreak of WNV in Indianapolis were the percentages of agriculture and water, total length of streams, and total size of wetlands. This study provides important information for urban public health prevention and management. It also contributes to the optimization of mosquito control and arrangement of future sampling efforts.

Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; He, Jianfeng; Song, Tie; Zhang, Meng; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Xie, Runsheng; Zhong, Haojie; Wu, Xiaocheng; Hu, Wenbiao; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-08-02

Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

Social epidemiology of a large outbreak of chickenpox in the Colombian sugar cane producer region: a set theory-based analysis.

PubMed

Idrovo, Alvaro J; Albavera-Hernández, Cidronio; Rodríguez-Hernández, Jorge Martín

2011-07-01

There are few social epidemiologic studies on chickenpox outbreaks, although previous findings suggested the important role of social determinants. This study describes the context of a large outbreak of chickenpox in the Cauca Valley region, Colombia (2003 to 2007), with an emphasis on macro-determinants. We explored the temporal trends in chickenpox incidence in 42 municipalities to identify the places with higher occurrences. We analyzed municipal characteristics (education quality, vaccination coverage, performance of health care services, violence-related immigration, and area size of planted sugar cane) through analyses based on set theory. Edwards-Venn diagrams were used to present the main findings. The results indicated that three municipalities had higher incidences and that poor quality education was the attribute most prone to a higher incidence. Potential use of set theory for exploratory outbreak analyses is discussed. It is a tool potentially useful to contrast units when only small sample sizes are available.

West Nile Virus Outbreak in North American Owls, Ontario, 2002

PubMed Central

Barker, Ian K.; Lindsay, Robbin; Dibernardo, Antonia; McKeever, Katherine; Hunter, Bruce

2004-01-01

From July to September 2002, an outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) caused a high number of deaths in captive owls at the Owl Foundation, Vineland, Ontario, Canada. Peak death rates occurred in mid-August, and the epidemiologic curve resembled that of corvids in the surrounding Niagara region. The outbreak occurred in the midst of a louse fly (Icosta americana, family Hippoboscidae) infestation. Of the flies tested, 16 (88.9 %) of 18 contained WNV RNA. Species with northern native breeding range and birds >1 year of age were at significantly higher risk for WNV-related deaths. Species with northern native breeding range and of medium-to-large body size were at significantly higher risk for exposure to WNV. Taxonomic relations (at the subfamily level) did not significantly affect exposure to WNV or WNV-related deaths. Northern native breeding range and medium-to-large body size were associated with earlier death within the outbreak period. Of the survivors, 69 (75.8 %) of 91 were seropositive for WNV. PMID:15663850

Foodborne illness outbreaks from microbial contaminants in spices, 1973-2010.

PubMed

Van Doren, Jane M; Neil, Karen P; Parish, Mickey; Gieraltowski, Laura; Gould, L Hannah; Gombas, Kathy L

2013-12-01

This review identified fourteen reported illness outbreaks attributed to consumption of pathogen-contaminated spice during the period 1973-2010. Countries reporting outbreaks included Canada, Denmark, England and Wales, France, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Serbia, and the United States. Together, these outbreaks resulted in 1946 reported human illnesses, 128 hospitalizations and two deaths. Infants/children were the primary population segments impacted by 36% (5/14) of spice-attributed outbreaks. Four outbreaks were associated with multiple organisms. Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica was identified as the causative agent in 71% (10/14) of outbreaks, accounting for 87% of reported illnesses. Bacillus spp. was identified as the causative agent in 29% (4/10) of outbreaks, accounting for 13% of illnesses. 71% (10/14) of outbreaks were associated with spices classified as fruits or seeds of the source plant. Consumption of ready-to-eat foods prepared with spices applied after the final food manufacturing pathogen reduction step accounted for 70% of illnesses. Pathogen growth in spiced food is suspected to have played a role in some outbreaks, but it was not likely a contributing factor in three of the larger Salmonella outbreaks, which involved low-moisture foods. Root causes of spice contamination included contributions from both early and late stages of the farm-to-table continuum. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Forecasting High-Priority Infectious Disease Surveillance Regions: A Socioeconomic Model

PubMed Central

Chan, Emily H.; Scales, David A.; Brewer, Timothy F.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Pollack, Marjorie P.; Hoen, Anne G.; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S.

2013-01-01

Background. Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. Methods. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Results. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996–2008. Conclusions. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions. PMID:23118271

Trade-off between disease resistance and crop yield: a landscape-scale mathematical modelling perspective.

PubMed

Vyska, Martin; Cunniffe, Nik; Gilligan, Christopher

2016-10-01

The deployment of crop varieties that are partially resistant to plant pathogens is an important method of disease control. However, a trade-off may occur between the benefits of planting the resistant variety and a yield penalty, whereby the standard susceptible variety outyields the resistant one in the absence of disease. This presents a dilemma: deploying the resistant variety is advisable only if the disease occurs and is sufficient for the resistant variety to outyield the infected standard variety. Additionally, planting the resistant variety carries with it a further advantage in that the resistant variety reduces the probability of disease invading. Therefore, viewed from the perspective of a grower community, there is likely to be an optimal trade-off and thus an optimal cropping density for the resistant variety. We introduce a simple stochastic, epidemiological model to investigate the trade-off and the consequences for crop yield. Focusing on susceptible-infected-removed epidemic dynamics, we use the final size equation to calculate the surviving host population in order to analyse the yield, an approach suitable for rapid epidemics in agricultural crops. We identify a single compound parameter, which we call the efficacy of resistance and which incorporates the changes in susceptibility, infectivity and durability of the resistant variety. We use the compound parameter to inform policy plots that can be used to identify the optimal strategy for given parameter values when an outbreak is certain. When the outbreak is uncertain, we show that for some parameter values planting the resistant variety is optimal even when it would not be during the outbreak. This is because the resistant variety reduces the probability of an outbreak occurring. © 2016 The Author(s).

Ciguatoxic Potential of Brown-Marbled Grouper in Relation to Fish Size and Geographical Origin

PubMed Central

Chan, Thomas Y. K.

2015-01-01

To determine the ciguatoxic potential of brown-marbled grouper (Epinephelus fuscoguttatus) in relation to fish size and geographical origin, this review systematically analyzed: 1) reports of large ciguatera outbreaks and outbreaks with description of the fish size; 2) Pacific ciguatoxin (P-CTX) profiles and levels and mouse bioassay results in fish samples from ciguatera incidents; 3) P-CTX profiles and levels and risk of toxicity in relation to fish size and origin; 4) regulatory measures restricting fish trade and fish size preference of the consumers. P-CTX levels in flesh and size dependency of toxicity indicate that the risk of ciguatera after eating E. fuscoguttatus varies with its geographical origin. For a large-sized grouper, it is necessary to establish legal size limits and control measures to protect public health and prevent overfishing. More risk assessment studies are required for E. fuscoguttatus to determine the size threshold above which the risk of ciguatera significantly increases. PMID:26324735

Operational practices associated with foodborne disease outbreaks in the catering industry in England and Wales.

PubMed

Jones, Sarah L; Parry, Sharon M; O'Brien, Sarah J; Palmer, Stephen R

2008-08-01

Catering businesses continue to be the most common setting for foodborne disease outbreaks. In a study of catering businesses in England and Wales, operational practices relating to the supply, preparation, and service of food in 88 businesses associated with outbreaks were compared with those practices at 88 control businesses. Operational practices did not differ significantly between case and control businesses but larger small medium-size enterprise (SME) businesses were more likely to be associated with foodborne disease outbreaks than were micro-SME businesses. Businesses associated with outbreaks of Salmonella infection were less likely to use local or national suppliers but instead used regional suppliers, especially for eggs. This practice was the only significantly independent operational practice associated with outbreaks of Salmonella infection. Regional egg suppliers also were more likely to be used by businesses associated with outbreaks attributed to food vehicles containing eggs. Businesses associated with egg-associated outbreaks were less likely to use eggs produced under an approved quality assurance scheme, suggesting that the underlying risk associated with using regional suppliers may relate to the use of contaminated eggs.

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

PubMed Central

Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population is greater than that of the focus. Disease control treatments administered shortly after the initial outbreak within the focus may either prevent an epidemic from occurring or reduce its severity. PMID:25512677

Literature Review of Associations among Attributes of Reported Drinking Water Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Ligon, Grant; Bartram, Jamie

2016-01-01

Waterborne disease outbreaks attributed to various pathogens and drinking water system characteristics have adversely affected public health worldwide throughout recorded history. Data from drinking water disease outbreak (DWDO) reports of widely varying breadth and depth were synthesized to investigate associations between outbreak attributes and human health impacts. Among 1519 outbreaks described in 475 sources identified during review of the primarily peer-reviewed, English language literature, most occurred in the U.S., the U.K. and Canada (in descending order). The outbreaks are most frequently associated with pathogens of unknown etiology, groundwater and untreated systems, and catchment realm-associated deficiencies (i.e., contamination events). Relative frequencies of outbreaks by various attributes are comparable with those within other DWDO reviews, with water system size and treatment type likely driving most of the (often statistically-significant at p < 0.05) differences in outbreak frequency, case count and attack rate. Temporal analysis suggests that while implementation of surface (drinking) water management policies is associated with decreased disease burden, further strengthening of related policies is needed to address the remaining burden attributed to catchment and distribution realm-associated deficiencies and to groundwater viral and disinfection-only system outbreaks. PMID:27240387

Literature Review of Associations among Attributes of Reported Drinking Water Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Ligon, Grant; Bartram, Jamie

2016-05-27

Waterborne disease outbreaks attributed to various pathogens and drinking water system characteristics have adversely affected public health worldwide throughout recorded history. Data from drinking water disease outbreak (DWDO) reports of widely varying breadth and depth were synthesized to investigate associations between outbreak attributes and human health impacts. Among 1519 outbreaks described in 475 sources identified during review of the primarily peer-reviewed, English language literature, most occurred in the U.S., the U.K. and Canada (in descending order). The outbreaks are most frequently associated with pathogens of unknown etiology, groundwater and untreated systems, and catchment realm-associated deficiencies (i.e., contamination events). Relative frequencies of outbreaks by various attributes are comparable with those within other DWDO reviews, with water system size and treatment type likely driving most of the (often statistically-significant at p < 0.05) differences in outbreak frequency, case count and attack rate. Temporal analysis suggests that while implementation of surface (drinking) water management policies is associated with decreased disease burden, further strengthening of related policies is needed to address the remaining burden attributed to catchment and distribution realm-associated deficiencies and to groundwater viral and disinfection-only system outbreaks.

Results from the First 12 Months of the National Surveillance of Healthcare Associated Outbreaks in Germany, 2011/2012

PubMed Central

Haller, Sebastian; Eckmanns, Tim; Benzler, Justus; Tolksdorf, Kristin; Claus, Hermann; Gilsdorf, Andreas; Sin, Muna Abu

2014-01-01

Background In August 2011, the German Protection against Infection Act was amended, mandating the reporting of healthcare associated infection (HAI) outbreak notifications by all healthcare workers in Germany via local public health authorities and federal states to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Objective To describe the reported HAI-outbreaks and the surveillance system’s structure and capabilities. Methods Information on each outbreak was collected using standard paper forms and notified to RKI. Notifications were screened daily and regularly analysed. Results Between November 2011 and November 2012, 1,326 paper forms notified 578 HAI-outbreaks, between 7 and 116 outbreaks per month. The main causative agent was norovirus (n = 414/578; 72%). Among the 108 outbreaks caused by bacteria, the most frequent pathogens were Clostridium difficile (25%) Klebsiella spp. (19%) and Staphylococcus spp. (19%). Multidrug-resistant bacteria were responsible for 54/108 (50%) bacterial outbreaks. Hospitals were affected most frequently (485/578; 84%). Hospital outbreaks due to bacteria were mostly reported from intensive care units (ICUs) (45%), followed by internal medicine wards (16%). Conclusion The mandatory HAI-outbreak surveillance system describes common outbreaks. Pathogens with a particular high potential to cause large or severe outbreaks may be identified, enabling us to further focus research and preventive measures. Increasing the sensitivity and reliability of the data collection further will facilitate identification of outbreaks able to increase in size and severity, and guide specific control measures to interrupt their propagation. PMID:24875674

Applied chemical ecology of the mountain pine beetle

Treesearch

Robert A. Progar; Nancy Gillette; Christopher J. Fettig; Kathryn Hrinkevich

2014-01-01

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a primary agent of forest disturbance in western North America. Episodic outbreaks occur at the convergence of favorable forest age and size class structure and climate patterns. Recent outbreaks have exceeded the historic range of variability of D. ponderosae-caused tree mortality affecting ecosystem goods and...

Epidemiology of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks Caused by Clostridium perfringens, United States, 1998–2010

PubMed Central

Grass, Julian E.; Gould, L. Hannah; Mahon, Barbara E.

2015-01-01

Clostridium perfringens is estimated to be the second most common bacterial cause of foodborne illness in the United States, causing one million illnesses each year. Local, state, and territorial health departments voluntarily report C. perfringens outbreaks to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System. Our analysis included outbreaks confirmed by laboratory evidence during 1998–2010. A food item was implicated if C. perfringens was isolated from food or based on epidemiologic evidence. Implicated foods were classified into one of 17 standard food commodities when possible. From 1998 to 2010, 289 confirmed outbreaks of C. perfringens illness were reported with 15,208 illnesses, 83 hospitalizations, and eight deaths. The number of outbreaks reported each year ranged from 16 to 31 with no apparent trend over time. The annual number of outbreak-associated illnesses ranged from 359 to 2,173, and the median outbreak size was 24 illnesses. Outbreaks occurred year round, with the largest number in November and December. Restaurants (43%) were the most common setting of food preparation. Other settings included catering facility (19%), private home (16%), prison or jail (11%), and other (10%). Among the 144 (50%) outbreaks attributed to a single food commodity, beef was the most common commodity (66 outbreaks, 46%), followed by poultry (43 outbreaks, 30%), and pork (23 outbreaks, 16%). Meat and poultry outbreaks accounted for 92% of outbreaks with an identified single food commodity. Outbreaks caused by C. perfringens occur regularly, are often large, and can cause substantial morbidity yet are preventable if contamination of raw meat and poultry products is prevented at the farm or slaughterhouse or, after contamination, if these products are properly handled and prepared, particularly in restaurants and catering facilities. PMID:23379281

The association between submission counts to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory and the economic and disease challenges of the Ontario swine industry from 1998 to 2009.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, T; Friendship, R; Pearl, D L; McEwen, B; Ker, A; Dewey, C

2012-10-01

An intuitive assumption is to believe that the number of submissions made to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory is dictated by the financial state of the industries using the laboratory. However, no research is available to document how the economics of a food animal industry affects laboratory submissions and therefore disease monitoring and surveillance efforts. The objective of this study was to determine if economic indices associated with the Ontario swine industry can account for the variability seen in these submissions. Retrospective swine submissions made to the Animal Health Laboratory at the University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario from January 1998 to July 2009 were compiled. The following economic, demographic, and health variables impacting Ontario swine production were selected for analysis: auction price, lean-hog futures, currency exchange rate, price of corn, an outbreak of porcine circovirus type-2 associated diseases (PCVAD), government incentive program, number of farms in province, and average farm size. All independent variables identified by unconditional associations to have a significance of P≤0.2 with the outcome of monthly submission count were included in a multivariable negative binomial model. A final model was identified by a backwards elimination procedure. A total of 30,432 swine submissions were recorded. The mean frequency of monthly submissions over 139 months was 212.9 (SD=56.0). After controlling for farm size, the number of pigs in Ontario, higher submission counts were associated with a weaker CAD$ versus US$, higher auction prices, and a PCVAD outbreak (P<0.001). The results suggest that both economic volatility and disease outbreaks in the Ontario swine industry drive submissions to the laboratory. In conclusion, lab submissions are a useful source of animal health data for disease surveillance; however, surveillance activities should also monitor the economics of the industry. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

2015-01-21

While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

2015-01-01

Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. Methods: We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. Results: We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. Conclusions: The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks. PMID:25685633

A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bier, Martin; Brak, Bastiaan

2015-04-01

In the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur.

A method for detecting and characterizing outbreaks of infectious disease from clinical reports.

PubMed

Cooper, Gregory F; Villamarin, Ricardo; Rich Tsui, Fu-Chiang; Millett, Nicholas; Espino, Jeremy U; Wagner, Michael M

2015-02-01

Outbreaks of infectious disease can pose a significant threat to human health. Thus, detecting and characterizing outbreaks quickly and accurately remains an important problem. This paper describes a Bayesian framework that links clinical diagnosis of individuals in a population to epidemiological modeling of disease outbreaks in the population. Computer-based diagnosis of individuals who seek healthcare is used to guide the search for epidemiological models of population disease that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. We applied this framework to develop a system that detects influenza outbreaks from emergency department (ED) reports. The system diagnoses influenza in individuals probabilistically from evidence in ED reports that are extracted using natural language processing. These diagnoses guide the search for epidemiological models of influenza that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. Those epidemiological models with a high posterior probability determine the most likely outbreaks of specific diseases; the models are also used to characterize properties of an outbreak, such as its expected peak day and estimated size. We evaluated the method using both simulated data and data from a real influenza outbreak. The results provide support that the approach can detect and characterize outbreaks early and well enough to be valuable. We describe several extensions to the approach that appear promising. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Method for Detecting and Characterizing Outbreaks of Infectious Disease from Clinical Reports

PubMed Central

Cooper, Gregory F.; Villamarin, Ricardo; Tsui, Fu-Chiang (Rich); Millett, Nicholas; Espino, Jeremy U.; Wagner, Michael M.

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of infectious disease can pose a significant threat to human health. Thus, detecting and characterizing outbreaks quickly and accurately remains an important problem. This paper describes a Bayesian framework that links clinical diagnosis of individuals in a population to epidemiological modeling of disease outbreaks in the population. Computer-based diagnosis of individuals who seek healthcare is used to guide the search for epidemiological models of population disease that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. We applied this framework to develop a system that detects influenza outbreaks from emergency department (ED) reports. The system diagnoses influenza in individuals probabilistically from evidence in ED reports that are extracted using natural language processing. These diagnoses guide the search for epidemiological models of influenza that explain the pattern of diagnoses well. Those epidemiological models with a high posterior probability determine the most likely outbreaks of specific diseases; the models are also used to characterize properties of an outbreak, such as its expected peak day and estimated size. We evaluated the method using both simulated data and data from a real influenza outbreak. The results provide support that the approach can detect and characterize outbreaks early and well enough to be valuable. We describe several extensions to the approach that appear promising. PMID:25181466

Perspectives on West Africa Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak, 2013-2016

DOE PAGES

Spengler, Jessica R.; Ervin, Elizabeth D.; Towner, Jonathan S.; ...

2016-06-01

The variety of factors that contributed to the initial undetected spread of Ebola virus disease in West Africa during 2013-2016 and the difficulty controlling the outbreak once the etiology was identified highlight priorities for disease prevention, detection, and response. These factors include occurrence in a region recovering from civil instability and lacking experience with Ebola response; inadequate surveillance, recognition of suspected cases, and Ebola diagnosis; mobile populations and extensive urban transmission; and the community's insufficient general understanding about the disease. The magnitude of the outbreak was not attributable to a substantial change of the virus. Finally, continued efforts during themore » outbreak and in preparation for future outbreak response should involve identifying the reservoir, improving in-country detection and response capacity, conducting survivor studies and supporting survivors, engaging in culturally appropriate public education and risk communication, building productive interagency relationships, and continuing support for basic research.« less

Perspectives on West Africa Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak, 2013-2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spengler, Jessica R.; Ervin, Elizabeth D.; Towner, Jonathan S.

The variety of factors that contributed to the initial undetected spread of Ebola virus disease in West Africa during 2013-2016 and the difficulty controlling the outbreak once the etiology was identified highlight priorities for disease prevention, detection, and response. These factors include occurrence in a region recovering from civil instability and lacking experience with Ebola response; inadequate surveillance, recognition of suspected cases, and Ebola diagnosis; mobile populations and extensive urban transmission; and the community's insufficient general understanding about the disease. The magnitude of the outbreak was not attributable to a substantial change of the virus. Finally, continued efforts during themore » outbreak and in preparation for future outbreak response should involve identifying the reservoir, improving in-country detection and response capacity, conducting survivor studies and supporting survivors, engaging in culturally appropriate public education and risk communication, building productive interagency relationships, and continuing support for basic research.« less

Three faces of node importance in network epidemiology: Exact results for small graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter

2017-12-01

We investigate three aspects of the importance of nodes with respect to susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) disease dynamics: influence maximization (the expected outbreak size given a set of seed nodes), the effect of vaccination (how much deleting nodes would reduce the expected outbreak size), and sentinel surveillance (how early an outbreak could be detected with sensors at a set of nodes). We calculate the exact expressions of these quantities, as functions of the SIR parameters, for all connected graphs of three to seven nodes. We obtain the smallest graphs where the optimal node sets are not overlapping. We find that (i) node separation is more important than centrality for more than one active node, (ii) vaccination and influence maximization are the most different aspects of importance, and (iii) the three aspects are more similar when the infection rate is low.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

PubMed Central

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990–2006) and former British India (1882–1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks. PMID:24424273

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire.

PubMed

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D; Bouma, Menno J; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-15

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

PubMed Central

Martinez, Ana; Dominguez, Angela; Torner, Nuria; Ruiz, Laura; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Arias, Cesar; Alvarez, Josep; Godoy, Pere; Balaña, Pilar Jorgina; Pumares, Analia; Bartolome, Rosa; Ferrer, Dolors; Perez, Unai; Pinto, Rosa; Buesa, Javier

2008-01-01

Background Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ≥10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001) Conclusion Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions. PMID:18410687

Early outbreak detection by linking health advice line calls to water distribution areas retrospectively demonstrated in a large waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Sweden.

PubMed

Bjelkmar, Pär; Hansen, Anette; Schönning, Caroline; Bergström, Jakob; Löfdahl, Margareta; Lebbad, Marianne; Wallensten, Anders; Allestam, Görel; Stenmark, Stephan; Lindh, Johan

2017-04-18

In the winter and spring of 2011 a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis occurred in Skellefteå municipality, Sweden. This study summarizes the outbreak investigation in terms of outbreak size, duration, clinical characteristics, possible source(s) and the potential for earlier detection using calls to a health advice line. The investigation included two epidemiological questionnaires and microbial analysis of samples from patients, water and other environmental sources. In addition, a retrospective study based on phone calls to a health advice line was performed by comparing patterns of phone calls between different water distribution areas. Our analyses showed that approximately 18,500 individuals were affected by a waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Skellefteå in 2011. This makes it the second largest outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Europe to date. Cryptosporidium hominis oocysts of subtype IbA10G2 were found in patient and sewage samples, but not in raw water or in drinking water, and the initial contamination source could not be determined. The outbreak went unnoticed to authorities for several months. The analysis of the calls to the health advice line provides strong indications early in the outbreak that it was linked to a particular water treatment plant. We conclude that an earlier detection of the outbreak by linking calls to a health advice line to water distribution areas could have limited the outbreak substantially.

Radiological Characterization of Cerebral Phenotype in Newborn Microcephaly Cases from 2015 Outbreak in Brazil

PubMed Central

Ramalho Rocha, Yuri Raoni; Cavalcanti Costa, José Ricardo; Almeida Costa, Pericles; Maia, Gessica; Vasconcelos, Rafael de Medeiros; Ramos Tejo, Cynthia; Martins Batista, Rafaella; Lima Neto, Manoel; Martins de Lima, Gustavo Graco; Negromonte, Francisco; Borba, Marcelle; Bezerra Jeronimo, Selma Maria; Sequerra, Eduardo Bouth; Moreira Neto, Manuel

2016-01-01

Introduction: Brazil is facing, since October of 2015, an outbreak of microcephalic fetuses. This outbreak is correlated with the beginning of circulation of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the country. Although it is clear that the size of the head is diminished in these fetuses, the brain phenotype associated with these malformations is unknown. Methods: We collected computed tomography images of the microcephaly cases from the region of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, from September 2015 to February 2016. Findings: The microcephalies derived from the current outbreak are associated with intracerebral calcifications, malformation of the ventricular system, migratory disorders in the telencephalon and, in a lower frequency, malformation of the cerebellum and brainstem. Discussion: The characteristics described herein are not usually found in other types of microcephaly. We suggest that this work can be used as a guideline to identify microcephaly cases associated to the current outbreak. PMID:27617166

Distinguishing epidemiological features of the 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M.; Espinel, Zelde; Espinola, Maria; Rechkemmer, Andreas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic was notable for its scope, scale, and complexity. This briefing presents a series of distinguishing epidemiological features that set this outbreak apart. Compared to one concurrent and 23 previous outbreaks of the disease over 40 years, this was the only occurrence of Ebola virus disease involving multiple nations and qualifying as a pandemic. Across multiple measures of magnitude, the 2013–2016 outbreak was accurately described using superlatives: largest and deadliest in terms of numbers of cases and fatalities; longest in duration; and most widely dispersed geographically, with outbreak-associated cases occurring in 10 nations. In contrast, the case-fatality rate was much lower for the 2013–2016 outbreak compared to the other 24 outbreaks. A population of particular interest for ongoing monitoring and public health surveillance is comprised of more than 17,000 “survivors,” Ebola patients who successfully recovered from their illness. The daunting challenges posed by this outbreak were met by an intensive international public health response. The near-exponential rate of increase of incident Ebola cases during mid-2014 was successfully slowed, reversed, and finally halted through the application of multiple disease containment and intervention strategies. PMID:28229017

Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

2017-03-01

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

Integrated Application of Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network Algorithms to Predict Viral Contamination in Coastal Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamkhali Chenar, S.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

Pathogenic viruses pose a significant public health threat and economic losses to shellfish industry in the coastal environment. Norovirus is a contagious virus and the leading cause of epidemic gastroenteritis following consumption of oysters harvested from sewage-contaminated waters. While it is challenging to detect noroviruses in coastal waters due to the lack of sensitive and routine diagnostic methods, machine learning techniques are allowing us to prevent or at least reduce the risks by developing effective predictive models. This study attempts to develop an algorithm between historical norovirus outbreak reports and environmental parameters including water temperature, solar radiation, water level, salinity, precipitation, and wind. For this purpose, the Random Forests statistical technique was utilized to select relevant environmental parameters and their various combinations with different time lags controlling the virus distribution in oyster harvesting areas along the Louisiana Coast. An Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach was then presented to predict the outbreaks using a final set of input variables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output. Findings demonstrated that the developed model was capable of reproducing historical oyster norovirus outbreaks along the Louisiana Coast with the overall accuracy of than 99.83%, demonstrating the efficacy of the model. Moreover, the increase in water temperature, solar radiation, water level, and salinity, and the decrease in wind and rainfall are associated with the reduction in the model-predicted risk of norovirus outbreak according to sensitivity analysis results. In conclusion, the presented machine learning approach provided reliable tools for predicting potential norovirus outbreaks and could be used for early detection of possible outbreaks and reduce the risk of norovirus to public health and the seafood industry.

The highly virulent 2006 Norwegian EHEC O103:H25 outbreak strain is related to the 2011 German O104:H4 outbreak strain.

PubMed

L'Abée-Lund, Trine M; Jørgensen, Hannah J; O'Sullivan, Kristin; Bohlin, Jon; Ligård, Goro; Granum, Per Einar; Lindbäck, Toril

2012-01-01

In 2006, a severe foodborne EHEC outbreak occured in Norway. Seventeen cases were recorded and the HUS frequency was 60%. The causative strain, Esherichia coli O103:H25, is considered to be particularly virulent. Sequencing of the outbreak strain revealed resemblance to the 2011 German outbreak strain E. coli O104:H4, both in genome and Shiga toxin 2-encoding (Stx2) phage sequence. The nucleotide identity between the Stx2 phages from the Norwegian and German outbreak strains was 90%. During the 2006 outbreak, stx(2)-positive O103:H25 E. coli was isolated from two patients. All the other outbreak associated isolates, including all food isolates, were stx-negative, and carried a different phage replacing the Stx2 phage. This phage was of similar size to the Stx2 phage, but had a distinctive early phage region and no stx gene. The sequence of the early region of this phage was not retrieved from the bacterial host genome, and the origin of the phage is unknown. The contaminated food most likely contained a mixture of E. coli O103:H25 cells with either one of the phages.

The Highly Virulent 2006 Norwegian EHEC O103:H25 Outbreak Strain Is Related to the 2011 German O104:H4 Outbreak Strain

PubMed Central

L'Abée-Lund, Trine M.; Jørgensen, Hannah J.; O'Sullivan, Kristin; Bohlin, Jon; Ligård, Goro; Granum, Per Einar; Lindbäck, Toril

2012-01-01

In 2006, a severe foodborne EHEC outbreak occured in Norway. Seventeen cases were recorded and the HUS frequency was 60%. The causative strain, Esherichia coli O103:H25, is considered to be particularly virulent. Sequencing of the outbreak strain revealed resemblance to the 2011 German outbreak strain E. coli O104:H4, both in genome and Shiga toxin 2-encoding (Stx2) phage sequence. The nucleotide identity between the Stx2 phages from the Norwegian and German outbreak strains was 90%. During the 2006 outbreak, stx2-positive O103:H25 E. coli was isolated from two patients. All the other outbreak associated isolates, including all food isolates, were stx-negative, and carried a different phage replacing the Stx2 phage. This phage was of similar size to the Stx2 phage, but had a distinctive early phage region and no stx gene. The sequence of the early region of this phage was not retrieved from the bacterial host genome, and the origin of the phage is unknown. The contaminated food most likely contained a mixture of E. coli O103:H25 cells with either one of the phages. PMID:22403614

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery. Our study adds to emerging evidence that dynamic networks can change predictions of disease dynamics, especially if the disease shows low transmissibility and a long infectious period, and when environmental conditions lead to enhanced between-group contact after an infectious agent has been introduced. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

A simple method to recover Norovirus from fresh produce with large sample size by using histo-blood group antigens conjugated magnetic beads re-circulating immunomagnetic separation system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Noroviruses (NoV) annually cause millions of cases of gastrointestinal disease in the United States. Although NoV outbreaks are generally associated with raw shellfish, particularly oysters, outbreaks have also been known to occur from other common-source food-borne vehicles such as lettuce, frozen...

Logistical constraints lead to an intermediate optimum in outbreak response vaccination

PubMed Central

Shea, Katriona; Ferrari, Matthew

2018-01-01

Dynamic models in disease ecology have historically evaluated vaccination strategies under the assumption that they are implemented homogeneously in space and time. However, this approach fails to formally account for operational and logistical constraints inherent in the distribution of vaccination to the population at risk. Thus, feedback between the dynamic processes of vaccine distribution and transmission might be overlooked. Here, we present a spatially explicit, stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated model that highlights the density-dependence and spatial constraints of various diffusive strategies of vaccination during an outbreak. The model integrates an agent-based process of disease spread with a partial differential process of vaccination deployment. We characterize the vaccination response in terms of a diffusion rate that describes the distribution of vaccination to the population at risk from a central location. This generates an explicit trade-off between slow diffusion, which concentrates effort near the central location, and fast diffusion, which spreads a fixed vaccination effort thinly over a large area. We use stochastic simulation to identify the optimum vaccination diffusion rate as a function of population density, interaction scale, transmissibility, and vaccine intensity. Our results show that, conditional on a timely response, the optimal strategy for minimizing outbreak size is to distribute vaccination resource at an intermediate rate: fast enough to outpace the epidemic, but slow enough to achieve local herd immunity. If the response is delayed, however, the optimal strategy for minimizing outbreak size changes to a rapidly diffusive distribution of vaccination effort. The latter may also result in significantly larger outbreaks, thus suggesting a benefit of allocating resources to timely outbreak detection and response. PMID:29791432

African swine fever outbreak on a medium-sized farm in Uganda: biosecurity breaches and within-farm virus contamination.

PubMed

Chenais, Erika; Sternberg-Lewerin, Susanna; Boqvist, Sofia; Liu, Lihong; LeBlanc, Neil; Aliro, Tonny; Masembe, Charles; Ståhl, Karl

2017-02-01

In Uganda, a low-income country in east Africa, African swine fever (ASF) is endemic with yearly outbreaks. In the prevailing smallholder subsistence farming systems, farm biosecurity is largely non-existent. Outbreaks of ASF, particularly in smallholder farms, often go unreported, creating significant epidemiological knowledge gaps. The continuous circulation of ASF in smallholder settings also creates biosecurity challenges for larger farms. In this study, an on-going outbreak of ASF in an endemic area was investigated on farm level, including analyses of on-farm environmental virus contamination. The study was carried out on a medium-sized pig farm with 35 adult pigs and 103 piglets or growers at the onset of the outbreak. Within 3 months, all pigs had died or were slaughtered. The study included interviews with farm representatives as well as biological and environmental sampling. ASF was confirmed by the presence of ASF virus (ASFV) genomic material in biological (blood, serum) and environmental (soil, water, feed, manure) samples by real-time PCR. The ASFV-positive biological samples confirmed the clinical assessment and were consistent with known virus characteristics. Most environmental samples were found to be positive. Assessment of farm biosecurity, interviews, and the results from the biological and environmental samples revealed that breaches and non-compliance with biosecurity protocols most likely led to the introduction and within-farm spread of the virus. The information derived from this study provides valuable insight regarding the implementation of biosecurity measures, particularly in endemic areas.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

PubMed Central

Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people’s reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals’ alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals’ risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals’ protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes. PMID:27007112

Fire severity and tree regeneration following bark beetle outbreaks: the role of outbreak stage and burning conditions.

PubMed

Harvey, Brian J; Donato, Daniel C; Romme, William H; Turner, Monica G

The degree to which recent bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks may influence fire severity and postfire tree regeneration is of heightened interest to resource managers throughout western North America, but empirical data on actual fire effects are lacking. Outcomes may depend on burning conditions (i.e., weather during fire), outbreak severity, or intervals between outbreaks and subsequent fire. We studied recent fires that burned through green-attack/red-stage (outbreaks <3 years before fire) and gray-stage (outbreaks 3–15 years before fire) subalpine forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine if fire severity was linked to prefire beetle outbreak severity and whether these two disturbances produced compound ecological effects on postfire tree regeneration. With field data from 143 postfire plots that burned under different conditions, we assessed canopy and surface fire severity, and postfire tree seedling density against prefire outbreak severity. In the green-attack/red stage, several canopy fire-severity measures increased with prefire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions. Under extreme conditions, few fire-severity measures were related to prefire outbreak severity, and effect sizes were of marginal biological significance. The percentage of tree stems and basal area killed by fire increased with more green-attack vs. red-stage trees (i.e., the earliest stages of outbreak). In the gray stage, by contrast, most fire-severity measures declined with increasing outbreak severity under moderate conditions, and fire severity was unrelated to outbreak severity under extreme burning conditions. Postfire lodgepole pine seedling regeneration was unrelated to prefire outbreak severity in either post-outbreak stage, but increased with prefire serotiny. Results suggest bark beetle outbreaks can affect fire severity in subalpine forests under moderate burning conditions, but have little effect on fire severity under extreme burning conditions when most large wildfires occur in this system. Thus, beetle outbreak severity was moderately linked to fire severity, but the strength and direction of the linkage depended on both endogenous (outbreak stage) and exogenous (fire weather) factors. Closely timed beetle outbreak and fire did not impart compound effects on tree regeneration, suggesting the presence of a canopy seedbank may enhance resilience to their combined effects.

SPOT-VEG Based Analysis of Siberian Silkmoth Outbreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Ranson, K. Jon; Im. Sergey T.

2007-01-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of an outbreak of the Siberian silkmoth were correlated with topographic features of the affected area using SPOT-VEG data and a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In 2002-2003 an outbreak affected approximately 20,000 ha in the South Siberian mountains of Russia. The outbreak began between the elevations of approximately 430- 480 m and on southwest slopes with steepness < 5 degrees. As the pest searched for food it moved up and down slope, resulting in an elevation distribution split within a range of approximately 390-540 m and slope steepness up to 15 degrees. In the final phase the azimuth distribution of damaged stands became even. The correlation between the initial phase and topographic features can be used to prioritize monitoring forest areas most vulnerable to destruction by pests.

A Waterborne Outbreak of Shigella sonnei with Resistance to Azithromycin and Third-Generation Cephalosporins in China in 2015.

PubMed

Ma, Qiuxia; Xu, Xuebin; Luo, Ming; Wang, Jian; Yang, Chaojie; Hu, Xiaofeng; Liang, Beibei; Wu, Fuli; Yang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jinyan; Liu, Hongbo; Li, Wen; Zhong, Yu; Li, Peng; Xie, Jing; Jia, Leili; Wang, Ligui; Hao, Rongzhang; Du, Xinying; Qiu, Shaofu; Song, Hongbin; Sun, Yansong

2017-06-01

Here, we report for the first time a waterborne outbreak of Shigella sonnei in China in 2015. Eleven multidrug-resistant (MDR) S. sonnei isolates were recovered, showing high resistance to azithromycin and third-generation cephalosporins in particular, due to an mph (A)- and bla CTX-M-14 -harboring IncB/O/K/Z group transmissible plasmid of 104,285 kb in size. Our study highlights the potential prevalence of the MDR outbreak of S. sonnei in China and its further dissemination worldwide with the development of globalization. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

ANTHRAX IN THE MACKENZIE WOOD BISON (BISON BISON ATHABASCAE) POPULATION: 2012 ANTHRAX OUTBREAK AND HISTORICAL EXPOSURE IN NONOUTBREAK YEARS.

PubMed

New, Dallas; Elkin, Brett; Armstrong, Terry; Epp, Tasha

2017-10-01

Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, poses a threat to wood bison (Bison bison athabascae) conservation. We used descriptive epidemiology to characterize a large outbreak of anthrax in the Mackenzie bison population in the Northwest Territories, Canada, in 2012 and investigated historical serologic exposure of the bison to the bacterium in nonoutbreak years. Between late June and early August 2012, 451 bison carcasses were detected; mortality peaked from 13-19 July. A substantial number of calves, yearlings, and adult females died in the 2012 outbreak, unlike in two previous anthrax outbreaks in this population that killed mostly mature males. On the basis of the difference in estimates of population size prior to the outbreak (2012) and after the outbreak (2013), it is possible that not all dead bison were found during the outbreak. We assessed serologic history of exposure to B. anthracis by using samples from the Mackenzie wood bison population collected between 1986 and 2009. Overall, 87 of 278 samples were positive (31%). Seroprevalence was lower in females (18%, 10/55) than males (36%, 72/203). The highest proportion of positive submissions (90%) was from 1994, the year following the only anthrax outbreak within the historical data set. Both adult males and females had a higher likelihood of being seropositive than the younger age categories. There was a trend toward declining antibody levels between the 1993 and 2012 outbreak years.

Remote sensing observation of annual dust cycles and possible causality of Kawasaki disease outbreaks in Japan

PubMed Central

LaHaye, Nick; Linstead, Erik; Sprigg, William A.; Yacoub, Magdi

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare vascular disease that, if left untreated, can result in irreparable cardiac damage in children. While the symptoms of KD are well-known, as are best practices for treatment, the etiology of the disease and the factors contributing to KD outbreaks remain puzzling to both medical practitioners and scientists alike. Recently, a fungus known as Candida, originating in the farmlands of China, has been blamed for outbreaks in China and Japan, with the hypothesis that it can be transported over long ranges via different wind mechanisms. This paper provides evidence to understand the transport mechanisms of dust at different geographic locations and the cause of the annual spike of KD in Japan. Candida is carried along with many other dusts, particles or aerosols, of various sizes in major seasonal wind currents. The evidence is based upon particle categorization using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Ångström Exponent (AE), the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) attenuated backscatter and aerosol subtype, and the Aerosol Robotic Network’s (AERONET) derived volume concentration. We found that seasonality associated with aerosol size distribution at different geographic locations plays a role in identifying dominant abundance at each location. Knowing the typical size of the Candida fungus, and analyzing aerosol characteristics using AERONET data reveals possible particle transport association with KD events at different locations. Thus, understanding transport mechanisms and accurate identification of aerosol sources is important in order to understand possible triggers to outbreaks of KD. This work provides future opportunities to leverage machine learning, including state-of-the-art deep architectures, to build predictive models of KD outbreaks, with the ultimate goal of early forecasting and intervention within a nascent global health early-warning system. PMID:29564343

How timely closure can reduce outbreak duration: gastroenteritis in care homes in North West England, 2012-2016.

PubMed

Inns, Thomas; Keenan, Alex; Huyton, Rita; Harris, John; Iturriza-Gomara, Miren; O'Brien, Sarah J; Vivancos, Roberto

2018-04-12

Data on outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis in care homes have been collected using an internet-based surveillance system in North West England since 2012. We analysed the burden and characteristics of care home outbreaks to inform future public health decision-making. We described characteristics of care homes and summary measures of the outbreaks such as attack rate, duration and pathogen identified. The primary analysis outcome was duration of closure following an outbreak. We used negative binomial regression to estimate Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and confidence intervals (CI) for each explanatory variable. We recorded 795 outbreaks from 379 care homes (37.1 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year). In total 11,568 cases, 75 hospitalisations and 29 deaths were reported. Closure within three days of the first case (IRR = 0.442, 95%CI 0.366-0.534) was significantly associated with reduced duration of closure. The total size of the home (IRR = 1.426, 95%CI = 1.275-1.595) and the total attack rate (IRR = 1.434, 95%CI = 1.257-1.595) were significantly associated with increased duration of closure. Care homes that closed promptly had outbreaks of shorter duration. Care home providers, and those advising them on infection control, should aim to close homes quickly to prevent lengthy disruption to services.

How parasitism affects critical patch-size in a host-parasitoid model: application to the forest tent caterpillar.

PubMed

Cobbold, C A; Lewis, M A; Lutscher, F; Roland, J

2005-03-01

Habitat structure has broad impacts on many biological systems. In particular, habitat fragmentation can increase the probability of species extinction and on the other hand it can lead to population outbreaks in response to a decline in natural enemies. An extreme consequence of fragmentation is the isolation of small regions of suitable habitat surrounded by a large region of hostile matrix. This scenario can be interpreted as a critical patch-size problem, well studied in a continuous time framework, but relatively new to discrete time models. In this paper we present an integrodifference host-parasitoid model, discrete in time and continuous in space, to study how the critical habitat-size necessary for parasitoid survival changes in response to parasitoid life history traits, such as emergence time. We show that early emerging parasitoids may be able to persist in smaller habitats than late emerging species. The model predicts that these early emerging parasitoids lead to more severe host outbreaks. We hypothesise that promoting efficient late emerging parasitoids may be key in reducing outbreak severity, an approach requiring large continuous regions of suitable habitat. We parameterise the model for the host species of the forest tent caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hbn., a pest insect for which fragmented landscape increases the severity of outbreaks. This host is known to have several parasitoids, due to paucity of data and as a first step in the modelling we consider a single generic parasitoid. The model findings are related to observations of the forest tent caterpillar offering insight into this host-parasitoid response to habitat structure.

Salmonella enteritidis surveillance by egg immunology: impact of the sampling scheme on the release of contaminated table eggs.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Thomas, Ekelijn; Artavia, Francisco F Calvo; Bouma, Annemarie

2011-08-01

Design of surveillance programs to detect infections could benefit from more insight into sampling schemes. We address the effect of sampling schemes for Salmonella Enteritidis surveillance in laying hens. Based on experimental estimates for the transmission rate in flocks, and the characteristics of an egg immunological test, we have simulated outbreaks with various sampling schemes, and with the current boot swab program with a 15-week sampling interval. Declaring a flock infected based on a single positive egg was not possible because test specificity was too low. Thus, a threshold number of positive eggs was defined to declare a flock infected, and, for small sample sizes, eggs from previous samplings had to be included in a cumulative sample to guarantee a minimum flock level specificity. Effectiveness of surveillance was measured by the proportion of outbreaks detected, and by the number of contaminated table eggs brought on the market. The boot swab program detected 90% of the outbreaks, with 75% fewer contaminated eggs compared to no surveillance, whereas the baseline egg program (30 eggs each 15 weeks) detected 86%, with 73% fewer contaminated eggs. We conclude that a larger sample size results in more detected outbreaks, whereas a smaller sampling interval decreases the number of contaminated eggs. Decreasing sample size and interval simultaneously reduces the number of contaminated eggs, but not indefinitely: the advantage of more frequent sampling is counterbalanced by the cumulative sample including less recently laid eggs. Apparently, optimizing surveillance has its limits when test specificity is taken into account. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation and comparison of statistical methods for early temporal detection of outbreaks: A simulation-based study

PubMed Central

Le Strat, Yann

2017-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a panel of statistical algorithms for temporal outbreak detection. Based on a large dataset of simulated weekly surveillance time series, we performed a systematic assessment of 21 statistical algorithms, 19 implemented in the R package surveillance and two other methods. We estimated false positive rate (FPR), probability of detection (POD), probability of detection during the first week, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and F1-measure for each detection method. Then, to identify the factors associated with these performance measures, we ran multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for the characteristics of the simulated time series (trend, seasonality, dispersion, outbreak sizes, etc.). The FPR ranged from 0.7% to 59.9% and the POD from 43.3% to 88.7%. Some methods had a very high specificity, up to 99.4%, but a low sensitivity. Methods with a high sensitivity (up to 79.5%) had a low specificity. All methods had a high negative predictive value, over 94%, while positive predictive values ranged from 6.5% to 68.4%. Multivariate Poisson regression models showed that performance measures were strongly influenced by the characteristics of time series. Past or current outbreak size and duration strongly influenced detection performances. PMID:28715489

Evidence of compounded disturbance effects on vegetation recovery following high-severity wildfire and spruce beetle outbreak

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, Amanda R.; Sibold, Jason S.; Assal, Timothy J.; Negrón, José F.

2017-01-01

Spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks are rapidly spreading throughout subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, raising concerns that altered fuel structures may increase the ecological severity of wildfires. Although many recent studies have found no conclusive link between beetle outbreaks and increased fire size or canopy mortality, few studies have addressed whether these combined disturbances produce compounded effects on short-term vegetation recovery. We tested for an effect of spruce beetle outbreak severity on vegetation recovery in the West Fork Complex fire in southwestern Colorado, USA, where much of the burn area had been affected by severe spruce beetle outbreaks in the decade prior to the fire. Vegetation recovery was assessed using the Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) two years after the fire, which occurred in 2013. Beetle outbreak severity, defined as the basal area of beetle-killed trees within Landsat pixels, was estimated using vegetation index differences (dVIs) derived from pre-outbreak and post-outbreak Landsat images. Of the seven dVIs tested, the change in Normalized Difference Moisture Index (dNDMI) was most strongly correlated with field measurements of beetle-killed basal area (R2 = 0.66). dNDMI was included as an explanatory variable in sequential autoregressive (SAR) models of NDVI2015. Models also included pre-disturbance NDVI, topography, and weather conditions at the time of burning as covariates. SAR results showed a significant correlation between NDVI2015 and dNDMI, with more severe spruce beetle outbreaks corresponding to reduced post-fire vegetation cover. The correlation was stronger for models which were limited to locations in the red stage of outbreak (outbreak ≤ 5 years old at the time of fire) than for models of gray-stage locations (outbreak > 5 years old at the time of fire). These results indicate that vegetation recovery processes may be negatively impacted by severe spruce beetle outbreaks occurring within a decade of stand-replacing wildfire.

Evidence of compounded disturbance effects on vegetation recovery following high-severity wildfire and spruce beetle outbreak

PubMed Central

Carlson, Amanda R.; Sibold, Jason S.; Assal, Timothy J.; Negrón, Jose F.

2017-01-01

Spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks are rapidly spreading throughout subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, raising concerns that altered fuel structures may increase the ecological severity of wildfires. Although many recent studies have found no conclusive link between beetle outbreaks and increased fire size or canopy mortality, few studies have addressed whether these combined disturbances produce compounded effects on short-term vegetation recovery. We tested for an effect of spruce beetle outbreak severity on vegetation recovery in the West Fork Complex fire in southwestern Colorado, USA, where much of the burn area had been affected by severe spruce beetle outbreaks in the decade prior to the fire. Vegetation recovery was assessed using the Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) two years after the fire, which occurred in 2013. Beetle outbreak severity, defined as the basal area of beetle-killed trees within Landsat pixels, was estimated using vegetation index differences (dVIs) derived from pre-outbreak and post-outbreak Landsat images. Of the seven dVIs tested, the change in Normalized Difference Moisture Index (dNDMI) was most strongly correlated with field measurements of beetle-killed basal area (R2 = 0.66). dNDMI was included as an explanatory variable in sequential autoregressive (SAR) models of NDVI2015. Models also included pre-disturbance NDVI, topography, and weather conditions at the time of burning as covariates. SAR results showed a significant correlation between NDVI2015 and dNDMI, with more severe spruce beetle outbreaks corresponding to reduced post-fire vegetation cover. The correlation was stronger for models which were limited to locations in the red stage of outbreak (outbreak ≤ 5 years old at the time of fire) than for models of gray-stage locations (outbreak > 5 years old at the time of fire). These results indicate that vegetation recovery processes may be negatively impacted by severe spruce beetle outbreaks occurring within a decade of stand-replacing wildfire. PMID:28777802

Characteristics of foodborne outbreaks in which use of analytical epidemiological studies contributed to identification of suspected vehicles, European Union, 2007 to 2011.

PubMed

Schlinkmann, K M; Razum, O; Werber, D

2017-04-01

Foodborne disease outbreaks (FBDOs) occur frequently in Europe. Employing analytical epidemiological study designs increases the likelihood of identifying the suspected vehicle(s), but these studies are rarely applied in FBDO investigations. We used multivariable binary logistic regression analysis to identify characteristics of investigated FBDOs reported to the European Food Safety Authority (2007-2011) that were associated with analytical epidemiological evidence (compared to evidence from microbiological investigations/descriptive epidemiology only). The analysis was restricted to FBDO investigations, where the evidence for the suspected vehicle was considered 'strong', i.e. convincing. The presence of analytical epidemiological evidence was reported in 2012 (50%) of these 4038 outbreaks. In multivariable analysis, increasing outbreak size, number of hospitalizations, causative (i.e. aetiological) agent (whether identified and, if so, which one), and the setting in which these outbreaks occurred (e.g. geographically dispersed outbreaks) were independently associated with presence of analytical evidence. The number of investigations with reported analytical epidemiological evidence was unexpectedly high, likely indicating the need for quality assurance within the European Union foodborne outbreak reporting system, and warranting cautious interpretation of our findings. This first analysis of evidence implicating a food vehicle in FBDOs may help to inform public health authorities on when to use analytical epidemiological study designs.

Tracking Viral Evolution during a Disease Outbreak: the Rapid and Complete Selective Sweep of a Circovirus in the Endangered Echo Parakeet

PubMed Central

Faulkes, Christopher G.; Greenwood, Andrew G.; Jones, Carl G.; Kaiser, Pete; Lyne, Owen D.; Black, Simon A.; Chowrimootoo, Aurelie; Groombridge, Jim J.

2012-01-01

Circoviruses are among the smallest and simplest of all viruses, but they are relatively poorly characterized. Here, we intensively sampled two sympatric parrot populations from Mauritius over a period of 11 years and screened for the circovirus Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV). During the sampling period, a severe outbreak of psittacine beak and feather disease, which is caused by BFDV, occurred in Echo parakeets. Consequently, this data set presents an ideal system for studying the evolution of a pathogen in a natural population and to understand the adaptive changes that cause outbreaks. Unexpectedly, we discovered that the outbreak was most likely caused by changes in functionally important regions of the normally conserved replication-associated protein gene and not the immunogenic capsid. Moreover, these mutations were completely fixed in the Echo parakeet host population very shortly after the outbreak. Several capsid alleles were linked to the replication-associated protein outbreak allele, suggesting that whereas the key changes occurred in the latter, the scope of the outbreak and the selective sweep may have been influenced by positive selection in the capsid. We found evidence for viral transmission between the two host populations though evidence for the invasive species as the source of the outbreak was equivocal. Finally, the high evolutionary rate that we estimated shows how rapidly new variation can arise in BFDV and is consistent with recent results from other small single-stranded DNA viruses. PMID:22345474

Pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks on fuels in subalpine forests of Colorado.

PubMed

Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T

2018-03-01

Over the past 30 years, forest disturbances have increased in size, intensity, and frequency globally, and are predicted to continue increasing due to climate change, potentially relaxing the constraints of vegetation properties on disturbance regimes. However, the consequences of the potentially declining importance of vegetation in determining future disturbance regimes are not well understood. Historically, bark beetles preferentially attack older trees and stands in later stages of development. However, as climate warming intensifies outbreaks by promoting growth of beetle populations and compromising tree defenses, smaller diameter trees and stands in early stages of development now are being affected by outbreaks. To date, no study has considered how stand age and other pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of outbreaks on surface and aerial fuel arrangements. We collected fuels data across a chronosequence of post-outbreak sites affected by spruce beetle (SB) between the 1940s and the 2010s, stratified by young (<130 yr) and old (>130 yr) post-fire stands. Canopy and surface fuel loads were calculated for each tree and stand, and available crown fuel load, crown bulk density, and canopy bulk densities were estimated. Canopy bulk density and density of live canopy individuals were reduced in all stands affected by SB, though foliage loss was proportionally greater in old stands as compared to young stands. Fine surface fuel loads in young stands were three times greater shortly (<30 yr) following outbreak as compared to young stands not affected by outbreak, after which the abundance of fine surface fuels decreased to below endemic (i.e., non-outbreak) levels. In both young and old stands, the net effect of SB outbreaks during the 20th and 21st centuries reduced total canopy fuels and increased stand-scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy fuels following outbreak. Importantly, the decrease in canopy fuels following outbreaks was greater in young post-fire stands than in older stands, suggesting that SB outbreaks may more substantially reduce risk of active crown fire when they affect stands in earlier stages of development. The current study shows that the effects of SB outbreaks on forest structure and on fuel profiles are strongly contingent on pre-outbreak conditions as determined by pre-outbreak disturbance history. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

PubMed

Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

2017-01-01

Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms

PubMed Central

Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L.; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

2017-01-01

Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method—ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals. PMID:28863159

How to Report a Foodborne Illness

MedlinePlus

... Illness General Public Health Departments Healthcare Professionals Public Communication SEDRIC Interpretation of Epidemic Curves Identifying Commercial Entities Size & Extent of Foodborne Outbreaks Key Players ...

Epidemiologic patterns of influenza outbreaks in institutional settings.

PubMed

Šubelj, M

2018-02-01

Congregate environments facilitate spread of influenza viruses and could result in serious outcomes among residents. We reviewed the epidemiology and identified factors that affect outbreak outcomes, using descriptive statistics and generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression. Outbreak duration, attack rate, hospitalization rate, case fatality rate, and the proportion of laboratory tests performed among infected residents were calculated by viral etiology, time to notification, and facility type and size. Between January 2011 and May 2015, the median attack rate for the 41 influenza outbreaks was highest among children in kindergarten (34%) and lowest among patients, who acquired influenza during hospitalization (17%). The median number of cases in each outbreak was 37 (range: 6-158) and a median of 199 individuals (range: 25-574) was exposed to influenza. The outbreaks lasted 2-49 days (median: 13 days). The average case fatality rate among residents for outbreaks attributed to influenza A or B was 3.1/1000 and for outbreaks attributed to influenza B 6.7/1000. Median time to notification was 10 days after the index case. In multivariate analysis, influenza outbreaks reported sooner after onset in the primary case ended sooner (P = 0.027) and had lower case fatality rates (P < 0.001). Residing in larger facilities was associated with lower proportion of laboratory tests performed (P = 0.024). Understanding whether earlier notification is a measure of a better functioning and therefore safer facility is a potentially important measure of the quality of care. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model

PubMed Central

Pedro, Sansao A.; Abelman, Shirley; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.

2016-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency. PMID:28002417

Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model.

PubMed

Pedro, Sansao A; Abelman, Shirley; Tonnang, Henri E Z

2016-12-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency.

Phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus outbreak strains provides evidence for four separate introductions and one between-poultry farm transmission in the Netherlands, November 2014.

PubMed

Bouwstra, R J; Koch, G; Heutink, R; Harders, F; van der Spek, A; Elbers, A R; Bossers, A

2015-07-02

Phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus strains causing outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms in 2014 provides evidence for separate introduction of the virus in four outbreaks in farms located 16-112 km from each other and for between-farm transmission between the third and fourth outbreak in farms located 550 m from each other. In addition, the analysis showed that all European and two Japanese H5N8 virus strains are very closely related and seem to originate from a calculated common ancestor, which arose between July and September 2014. Our findings suggest that the Dutch outbreak virus strain 'Ter Aar' and the first German outbreak strain from 2014 shared a common ancestor. In addition, the data indicate that the Dutch outbreak viruses descended from an H5N8 virus that circulated around 2009 in Asia, possibly China, and subsequently spread to South Korea and Japan and finally also to Europe. Evolution of the virus seemed to follow a parallel track in Japan and Europe, which supports the hypothesis that H5N8 virus was exchanged between migratory wild waterfowl at their breeding grounds in Siberia and from there was carried by migrating waterfowl to Europe.

Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to support the control of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa.

PubMed

Fähnrich, C; Denecke, K; Adeoye, O O; Benzler, J; Claus, H; Kirchner, G; Mall, S; Richter, R; Schapranow, M P; Schwarz, N; Tom-Aba, D; Uflacker, M; Poggensee, G; Krause, G

2015-03-26

In the context of controlling the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), the World Health Organization claimed that 'critical determinant of epidemic size appears to be the speed of implementation of rigorous control measures', i.e. immediate follow-up of contact persons during 21 days after exposure, isolation and treatment of cases, decontamination, and safe burials. We developed the Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to improve efficiency and timeliness of these measures. We used the Design Thinking methodology to systematically analyse experiences from field workers and the Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) after successful control of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria. We developed a process model with seven personas representing the procedures of EVD outbreak control. The SORMAS system architecture combines latest In-Memory Database (IMDB) technology via SAP HANA (in-memory, relational database management system), enabling interactive data analyses, and established SAP cloud tools, such as SAP Afaria (a mobile device management software). The user interface consists of specific front-ends for smartphones and tablet devices, which are independent from physical configurations. SORMAS allows real-time, bidirectional information exchange between field workers and the EOC, ensures supervision of contact follow-up, automated status reports, and GPS tracking. SORMAS may become a platform for outbreak management and improved routine surveillance of any infectious disease. Furthermore, the SORMAS process model may serve as framework for EVD outbreak modeling.

Impact of the Legionella urinary antigen test on epidemiological trends in community outbreaks of legionellosis in Catalonia, Spain, 1990-2004.

PubMed

Alvarez, Josep; Domínguez, Angela; Sabrià, Miquel; Ruiz, Laura; Torner, Nuria; Cayla, Joan; Barrabeig, Irene; Sala, M Rosa; Godoy, Pere; Camps, Neus; Minguell, Sofia

2009-11-01

To describe the characteristics of community outbreaks of legionellosis in Catalonia, Spain from 1990 to 2004, to compare two time periods (1990-1996 and 1997-2004), and to assess the influence of outbreak characteristics on the case fatality rate (CFR). This is a descriptive analysis of the outbreaks detected by epidemiological surveillance units in Catalonia. Variables potentially related to the CFR were analyzed by logistic regression. Of the 118 outbreaks involving 690 patients (overall CFR 4.5%), the urinary antigen test (UAT) was used for first case diagnosis in 80.5%. The origin of the outbreak was identified as a cooling tower in 35.6%, as a water distribution system in a public building in 14.4%, and a water distribution system at other sites in 7.6%. Statistically significant differences were found in the CFR (12.2% vs. 3.9%; p=0.018) and detection of the first case by UAT (0.0% vs. 87.2%; p<0.001) between the two time periods investigated. Logistic regression showed an increase in the CFR according to outbreak size (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.33) that was significantly lower in the second period (aOR 0.09; 95% CI 0.04-0.20). Since the UAT was introduced, early diagnosis and treatment has helped to improve the outcomes and CFR of cases involved in outbreaks of legionellosis.

The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

PubMed

Farine, Damien

2017-05-01

A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors, such as seasonality, led to consistent differences in the structure of social networks, using dynamic vs. static representations of networks generated differences in the predicted outbreak size of an emergent disease. These findings highlight some of the challenges associated with studying disease dynamics in animal populations, and the importance of continuing efforts to develop the network tools needed to study disease spread. © 2017 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Seascape dynamics of a coral disease outbreak in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sziklay, J.; Donahue, M. J.

2016-02-01

When trying to understand patterns of disease transmission, it is essential to estimate the rate at which individuals become infected. Over the past five years, there have been three coral disease outbreaks of tissue loss diseases in Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii resulting in localized mass mortality of the host coral species Montipora capitata. These progressive tissue loss diseases cause coral tissue to disassociate with the coral skeleton, usually resulting in total colony mortality. During the most recent outbreak (winter 2015) we designed a natural experiment to estimate force of infection in the field, and determine whether benthic characteristics of the coral community (size of host, distance from host to infected individuals, coral community composition) increased or decreased the probability of survival. We determined that colony size and distance to infected neighbors were the most important determinants of infection likelihood and calculated a force of infection, which is key to understanding epidemiology in any disease and for modeling potential intervention strategies. We plan to use this information to better understand disease dynamics for tissue loss diseases in coral more broadly and to identify putative vectors of disease transmission.

New microsatellites revealed strong gene flow among populations of a new outbreak pest, Athetis lepigone (Möschler).

PubMed

Zhu, W-C; Sun, J-T; Dai, J; Huang, J-R; Chen, L; Hong, X-Y

2017-11-27

Athetis lepigone (Möschler) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a new outbreak pest in China. Consequently, it is unclear whether the emergence and spread of the outbreak of this pest are triggered by rapid in situ population size increases in each outbreak area, or by immigrants from a potential source area in China. In order to explore the outbreak process of this pest through a population genetics approach, we developed ten novel polymorphic expressed sequence tags (EST)-derived microsatellites. These new microsatellites had moderately high levels of polymorphism in the tested population. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 19, with an average of 8.6, and the expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.269 to 0.783. A preliminary population genetic analysis using these new microsatellites revealed a lack of population genetic structure in natural populations of A. lepigone. The estimates of recent migration rate revealed strong gene flow among populations. In conclusion, our study developed the first set of EST-microsatellite markers and shed a new light on the population genetic structure of this pest in China.

Quantitative assessment of social and economic impact of African swine fever outbreaks in northern Uganda.

PubMed

Chenais, Erika; Boqvist, Sofia; Emanuelson, Ulf; von Brömssen, Claudia; Ouma, Emily; Aliro, Tonny; Masembe, Charles; Ståhl, Karl; Sternberg-Lewerin, Susanna

2017-09-01

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important pig diseases, causing high case fatality rate and trade restrictions upon reported outbreaks. In Uganda, a low-income country with the largest pig population in East Africa, ASF is endemic. Animal disease impact is multidimensional and include social and economic impact along the value chain. In low-income settings, this impact keep people poor and push those that have managed to escape poverty back again. If the diseases can be controlled, their negative consequences can be mitigated. However, to successfully argue for investment in disease control, its cost-benefits need to be demonstrated. One part in the cost-benefit equations is disease impact quantification. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate the socio-economic impact of ASF outbreaks at household level in northern Uganda. In a longitudinal study, structured interviews with two hundred, randomly selected, pig-keeping households were undertaken three times with a six month interval. Questions related to family and pig herd demographics, pig trade and pig business. Associations between ASF outbreaks and economic and social impact variables were evaluated using linear regression models. The study showed that pigs were kept in extreme low-input-low-output farming systems involving only small monetary investments. Yearly incidence of ASF on household level was 19%. Increasing herd size was positively associated with higher economic output. The interaction between ASF outbreaks and the herd size showed that ASF outbreaks were negatively associated with economic output at the second interview occasion and with one out of two economic impact variables at the third interview occasion. No significant associations between the social impact variables included in the study and ASF outbreaks could be established. Trade and consumption of sick and dead pigs were coping strategies used to minimize losses of capital and animal protein. The results indicate that causality of social and economic impact of ASF outbreaks in smallholder systems is complex. Pigs are mostly kept as passive investments rather than active working capital, complicating economic analyses and further disqualifying disease control arguments based only on standard economic models. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry.

PubMed

Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry flocks are rare but highly disruptive to the industry. There is evidence that low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) can transfer from wild birds to domestic flocks, where it may mutate to HPAI, and the industry is concerned that an increasing demand for free-range produce may affect the risk of LPAI and HPAI outbreaks. In this paper we focus on LPAI introduction and establishment, and formulate a branching process model to compare risk between sectors and their contribution to overall industry-level risk. Our aim is to determine how heterogeneity in avian influenza viruses and the distinct population structures of each sector - caged, barn and free-range, meat and layer - interact with a continuous risk of virus introduction to affect outbreak probabilities. We show that free-range access is the most influential driver of LPAI outbreaks, with production cycle length having relatively little effect. We demonstrate that variation in virus transmission rates is particularly important when modelling avian influenza introduction to domestic poultry. Virus-free status is of interest for biosecurity and we distinguish how it differs from the usual probability of extinction, and discuss how production cycle length affects this difference. We also use the nonlinear relationship between shed size and risk to identify conditions for which shed size is most influential. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors associated with anthrax outbreak in animals in North Dakota, 2005: a retrospective case-control study.

PubMed

Mongoh, Mafany Ndiva; Dyer, Neil W; Stoltenow, Charles L; Khaitsa, Margaret L

2008-01-01

We identified the risk factors associated with the anthrax outbreak Of 2005 in animals in North Dakota. Medical records of the 2005 anthrax outbreak were obtained from the Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory at North Dakota State University. Additional data were obtained from the North Dakota state veterinarian's office, and supplemental questionnaires were administered to producers. The data obtained included ecological and environmental factors, animal health factors, and management factors. Anthrax occurred from July 1 to October 12, 2005. The cases were located in eastern North Dakota around the Red River Basin. Ransom, LaMoure, and Barnes counties reported most cases (71%). Species affected included cattle, bison, horses, sheep, elk, deer, pigs, and llamas. The predominant symptom was sudden death (38%) followed by bleeding from orifices (17%). Chi-square analysis indicated significant differences between case and control premises on the following variables: death reported on neighboring pasture, vaccination period, dry conditions, wet conditions, antibiotic use, multiple vaccination, and type of predator (coyote). Factors that significantly (p<0.05) predicted anthrax occurrences on the final logistic regression model were vaccination, use of antibiotics during an outbreak, and period of vaccine administration (before or during the outbreak). The characteristics of the anthrax outbreak regarding time and place of occurrence, animals affected, clinical signs reported, and mortality rate were consistent with previous reports of natural anthrax outbreaks in animals. A number of factors that significantly predicted anthrax occurrence in animals in the 2005 outbreak in North Dakota were identified. This information is important in planning appropriate control and prevention measures for anthrax, including recommending the right vaccination and treatment regimens in managing future anthrax outbreaks.

Cryptosporidiosis outbreaks associated with recreational water use--five states, 2006.

PubMed

2007-07-27

Cryptosporidiosis is a gastrointestinal illness caused by parasitic protozoa of the genus Cryptosporidium and can produce watery diarrhea lasting 1-3 weeks; one or two cases per 100,000 population are reported annually in the United States. Fecal-oral transmission of Cryptosporidium oocysts occurs through ingestion of contaminated drinking or recreational water, consumption of contaminated food, and contact with infected persons or animals (e.g., cattle or sheep). Unlike bacterial pathogens, Cryptosporidium oocysts are resistant to chlorine disinfection and can survive for days in treated recreational water venues (e.g., public and residential swimming pools and community and commercial water parks) despite adherence to recommended residual chlorine levels (1-3 ppm). For 2006, a total of 18 cryptosporidiosis outbreaks have been reported (as of July 24, 2007) to CDC's U.S. Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System, compared with five outbreaks reported for 2003 and seven for 2004; data for 2005 and 2006 are not yet final. This report describes five laboratory-confirmed cryptosporidiosis outbreaks in 2006 that involved public recreational water use. The popularity of recreational water venues, the number and geographic distribution of recent cryptosporidiosis outbreaks, and the resistance of Cryptosporidium to chlorination suggest that treatment strategies for recreational water facilities need to be improved.

How the distance between regional and human mobility behavior affect the epidemic spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minna; Han, She; Sun, Mei; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

The distance between different regions has a lot of impact on the individuals' mobility behavior. Meanwhile, the individuals' mobility could greatly affect the epidemic propagation way. By researching the individuals' mobility behavior, we establish the coupled dynamic model for individual mobility and transmission of infectious disease. The basic reproduction number is theoretically obtained according to the next-generation matrix method. Through this study, we may get that the stability state of the epidemic system will be prolonged under a higher commuting level. The infection density is almost the same in different regions over a sufficiently long time. The results show that, due to the individual movement, the origin of virus can only speed up or delay the outbreak of infectious diseases, however, it have little impact on the final infection size.

Oseltamivir prophylaxis in controlling influenza outbreak in nursing homes: a comparison between three different approaches.

PubMed

Gorišek Miksić, N; Uršič, T; Simonović, Z; Lusa, L; Lobnik Rojko, P; Petrovec, M; Strle, F

2015-02-01

To assess influenza outbreaks in nursing homes (NHs) using different pharmacological preventive measures. We compared characteristics of influenza A outbreaks that occurred during 2011/2012 influenza season in three NHs of similar size (208, 167, and 164 residents in NH1, NH2, and NH3, respectively) implementing comparable treatment approaches and non-pharmacological outbreak control measures but different prophylactic pharmacological interventions including oseltamivir 75 mg o.d. for 10 days for all residents (NH1), for directly exposed residents (NH2), and no prophylaxis (NH3). The proportions of residents who developed acute respiratory infection (ARI) in the course of influenza outbreak were 55/208 (26.4 %) in NH1, 64/167 (38.3 %) in NH2, and 31/164 (18.9 %) in NH3; hospital admission was required in 2/55 (3.6 %), 5/64 (7.8 %), and 5/31 (16.1 %) residents of NH1, NH2, and NH3, respectively, while 1/55 (1.8 %), 1/64 (1.6 %), and 3/31 (9.7 %) residents of the corresponding NHs died during influenza outbreak. The duration of the outbreak was shorter in the NH1 where oseltamivir prophylaxis was instituted for all residents (8 days), than in NHs where selective prophylaxis with oseltamivir and no prophylaxis were used (14 and 12 days, respectively). The calculated vaccine effectiveness in residents was 48, 71, and 44 % in NH1, NH2, and NH3, respectively. Staff members had similar ARI attack rate but in comparison to residents were less often vaccinated against influenza and demonstrated higher influenza vaccine effectiveness. Comparison of influenza outbreaks in three NHs revealed that the duration of the outbreak was the shortest in the NH where prophylaxis with oseltamivir was given to all residents.

Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkhiria, Jaber; Alkhamis, Moh A.; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2016-09-01

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US.

Identifying high-risk areas for sporadic measles outbreaks: lessons from South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Cohen, C; Chirwa, T; Ntshoe, G; Puren, A; Hofman, K

2013-03-01

To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011. Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012. A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken. The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Observation of a Saharan dust outbreaks in the frame of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Girolamo, Paolo; Summa, Donato; Bhawar, Rohini; Di Iorio, Tatiana; Caccaini, Marco; Veselovskii, Igor; Kolgotin, Alexey

2009-03-01

The Raman lidar system BASIL was operational in Achern (Supersite R, Lat: 48.64° N, Long: 8.06° E, Elev.: 140 m) in the frame of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study. BASIL operated continuously over a period of approx. 36 hours from 06:22 UTC on 1 August to 18:28 UTC on 2 August 2007, to cover IOPs 13 a-b. In this timeframe the signature of a severe Saharan dust outbreak episode was captured. An inversion algorithm was used to retrieve particle size distribution parameters, i.e., mean and effective radius, number, surface area, and volume concentration, and complex refractive index, as well as the parameters of a bimodal particle size distribution, from the multi-wavelength lidar data of particle backscattering and extinction. The inversion method employs Tikhonov's inversion with regularization. Size distribution parameters are estimated as a function of altitude at different times during the dust outbreak event. Retrieval results reveal the dominance in the upper dust layer of a coarse mode with radii 3-4 μm. Number density and volume concentration are in the range 100-800 cm-3 and 5-40 μm3/cm3, respectively, while real and imaginary part of the complex refractive index are in the range 1.41-1.53 and 0.003-0.014, respectively.

Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda.

PubMed

Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ayebare, Samuel; Mosomtai, Gladys; Kankya, Clovice; Lutwama, Julius; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Skjerve, Eystein

2017-09-05

Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area.

Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda

PubMed Central

Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ayebare, Samuel; Mosomtai, Gladys; Kankya, Clovice; Lutwama, Julius; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Skjerve, Eystein

2017-01-01

Introduction: Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. Methods: The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus – environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. Results: We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Conclusions: Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area. PMID:29034123

Assessment of air sampling methods and size distribution of virus-laden aerosols in outbreaks in swine and poultry farms.

PubMed

Alonso, Carmen; Raynor, Peter C; Goyal, Sagar; Olson, Bernard A; Alba, Anna; Davies, Peter R; Torremorell, Montserrat

2017-05-01

Swine and poultry viruses, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), are economically important pathogens that can spread via aerosols. The reliability of methods for quantifying particle-associated viruses as well as the size distribution of aerosolized particles bearing these viruses under field conditions are not well documented. We compared the performance of 2 size-differentiating air samplers in disease outbreaks that occurred in swine and poultry facilities. Both air samplers allowed quantification of particles by size, and measured concentrations of PRRSV, PEDV, and HPAIV stratified by particle size both within and outside swine and poultry facilities. All 3 viruses were detectable in association with aerosolized particles. Proportions of positive sampling events were 69% for PEDV, 61% for HPAIV, and 8% for PRRSV. The highest virus concentrations were found with PEDV, followed by HPAIV and PRRSV. Both air collectors performed equally for the detection of total virus concentration. For all 3 viruses, higher numbers of RNA copies were associated with larger particles; however, a bimodal distribution of particles was observed in the case of PEDV and HPAIV.

Reproductive changes in fluctuating house mouse populations in southeastern Australia.

PubMed

Singleton, G; Krebs, C J; Davis, S; Chambers, L; Brown, P

2001-08-22

House mice (Mus domesticus) in the Victorian mallee region of southeastern Australia show irregular outbreaks. Changes in reproductive output that could potentially drive changes in mouse numbers were assessed from 1982 to 2000. Litter size in females is positively correlated with body size. When standardized to an average size female, litter size changes seasonally from highest in spring to lowest in autumn and winter. Litter size is depressed throughout breeding seasons that begin when the abundance of mice is high, but is similar in breeding seasons over which the abundance of mice increases rapidly or remains low. Breeding begins early and is extended on average by about five weeks during seasons when mouse abundance increases rapidly. The size at which females begin to reproduce is larger during breeding seasons that begin when mouse abundance is high. An extended breeding season that begins early in spring is necessary for the generation of a house mouse plague, but it is not in itself sufficient. Reproductive changes in outbreaks of house mice in Australia are similar but not identical to reproductive changes that accompany rodent population increases in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that food quality, particularly protein, is a probable mechanism driving these reproductive changes, but experimental evidence for field populations is conflicting.

The relationship between infecting dose and severity of disease in reported outbreaks of Salmonella infections.

PubMed Central

Glynn, J. R.; Bradley, D. J.

1992-01-01

The relationship between size of the infecting dose and severity of the resulting disease has been investigated for salmonella infections by reanalysis of data within epidemics for 32 outbreaks, and comparing data between outbreaks for 68 typhoid epidemics and 49 food-poisoning outbreaks due to salmonellas. Attack rate, incubation period, amount of infected food consumed and type of vehicle are used as proxy measures of infecting dose, while case fatality rates for typhoid and case hospitalization rates for food poisoning salmonellas were used to assess severity. Limitations of the data are discussed. Both unweighted and logit analysis models are used. There is no evidence for a dose-severity relationship for Salmonella typhi, but evidence of a correlation between dose and severity is available from within-epidemic or between-epidemic analysis, or both, for Salmonella typhimurium, S. enteritidis, S. infantis, S. newport, and S. thompson. The presence of such a relationship affects the way in which control interventions should be assessed. PMID:1468522

Information content of contact-pattern representations and predictability of epidemic outbreaks

PubMed Central

Holme, Petter

2015-01-01

To understand the contact patterns of a population—who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen—is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can meet any with equal probability. A more modern approach, network epidemiology, assumes people are connected into a static network over which the disease spreads. Newer yet, temporal network epidemiology, includes the time in the contact representations. In this paper, we investigate the effect of these successive inclusions of more information. Using empirical proximity data, we study both outbreak sizes from unknown sources, and from known states of ongoing outbreaks. In the first case, there are large differences going from a fully mixed simulation to a network, and from a network to a temporal network. In the second case, differences are smaller. We interpret these observations in terms of the temporal network structure of the data sets. For example, a fast overturn of nodes and links seem to make the temporal information more important. PMID:26403504

The Ebola Outbreak of 2014-2015: From Coordinated Multilateral Action to Effective Disease Containment, Vaccine Development, and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wojda, Thomas R; Valenza, Pamela L; Cornejo, Kristine; McGinley, Thomas; Galwankar, Sagar C; Kelkar, Dhanashree; Sharpe, Richard P; Papadimos, Thomas J; Stawicki, Stanislaw P

2015-01-01

The Ebola outbreak of 2014-2015 exacted a terrible toll on major countries of West Africa. Latest estimates from the World Health Organization indicate that over 11,000 lives were lost to the deadly virus since the first documented case was officially recorded. However, significant progress in the fight against Ebola was made thanks to a combination of globally-supported containment efforts, dissemination of key information to the public, the use of modern information technology resources to better track the spread of the outbreak, as well as more effective use of active surveillance, targeted travel restrictions, and quarantine procedures. This article will outline the progress made by the global public health community toward containing and eventually extinguishing this latest outbreak of Ebola. Economic consequences of the outbreak will be discussed. The authors will emphasize policies and procedures thought to be effective in containing the outbreak. In addition, we will outline selected episodes that threatened inter-continental spread of the disease. The emerging topic of post-Ebola syndrome will also be presented. Finally, we will touch on some of the diagnostic (e.g., point-of-care [POC] testing) and therapeutic (e.g., new vaccines and pharmaceuticals) developments in the fight against Ebola, and how these developments may help the global public health community fight future epidemics. PMID:26752867

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

PubMed Central

Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

2018-01-01

Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

The Ebola Outbreak of 2014-2015: From Coordinated Multilateral Action to Effective Disease Containment, Vaccine Development, and Beyond.

PubMed

Wojda, Thomas R; Valenza, Pamela L; Cornejo, Kristine; McGinley, Thomas; Galwankar, Sagar C; Kelkar, Dhanashree; Sharpe, Richard P; Papadimos, Thomas J; Stawicki, Stanislaw P

2015-01-01

The Ebola outbreak of 2014-2015 exacted a terrible toll on major countries of West Africa. Latest estimates from the World Health Organization indicate that over 11,000 lives were lost to the deadly virus since the first documented case was officially recorded. However, significant progress in the fight against Ebola was made thanks to a combination of globally-supported containment efforts, dissemination of key information to the public, the use of modern information technology resources to better track the spread of the outbreak, as well as more effective use of active surveillance, targeted travel restrictions, and quarantine procedures. This article will outline the progress made by the global public health community toward containing and eventually extinguishing this latest outbreak of Ebola. Economic consequences of the outbreak will be discussed. The authors will emphasize policies and procedures thought to be effective in containing the outbreak. In addition, we will outline selected episodes that threatened inter-continental spread of the disease. The emerging topic of post-Ebola syndrome will also be presented. Finally, we will touch on some of the diagnostic (e.g., point-of-care [POC] testing) and therapeutic (e.g., new vaccines and pharmaceuticals) developments in the fight against Ebola, and how these developments may help the global public health community fight future epidemics.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Nielen, M; Burrell, A M

2002-12-18

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

Reversible Parallel Discrete-Event Execution of Large-scale Epidemic Outbreak Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2010-01-01

The spatial scale, runtime speed and behavioral detail of epidemic outbreak simulations together require the use of large-scale parallel processing. In this paper, an optimistic parallel discrete event execution of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic outbreaks is presented, with an implementation over themore » $$\\mu$$sik simulator. Rollback support is achieved with the development of a novel reversible model that combines reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup and other runtime performance metrics of the simulation are tested on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes (up to several hundred million individuals in the largest case) are exercised.« less

Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model

PubMed Central

Lega, Joceline; Brown, Heidi E.

2016-01-01

Recent events have thrown the spotlight on infectious disease outbreak response. We developed a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. It is based on a surprisingly simple mathematical property of many epidemiological data sets, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, is robust to noise and to small data sets, and runs quickly due to its mathematical simplicity. Using data from historic and ongoing epidemics, we present the model. We also provide modeling considerations that justify this approach and discuss its limitations. In the absence of other information or in conjunction with other models, EpiGro may be useful to public health responders. PMID:27770752

Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A.

2014-01-01

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB outbreaks on red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). However, there is evidence that red squirrels can persist after an outbreak under some conditions, e.g., when nonhost tree species are present. For small mammal species associated with forest understories, responses may be most pronounced during the postepidemic period (>6 years after the peak of beetle-induced tree mortality) when snags fall to produce coarse woody debris. Postoutbreak salvage logging studies (n = 6) reported results that lacked consensus. Postoutbreak salvage logging may have an impact on fewer wildlife species than postfire salvage logging, probably because only host-specific tree species are removed after beetle outbreaks.

Wood Anatomy and Insect Defoliator Systems: Is there an anatomical response to sustained feeding by the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis) on Douglas-fir (Pseudotusga menziesii)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axelson, Jodi; Gärtner, Holger; Alfaro, René; Smith, Dan

2013-04-01

The western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) is the most widespread and destructive defoliator of coniferous forests in western North America, and has a long-term coexistence with its primary host tree, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco). Western spruce budworm (WSB) outbreaks usually last for several years, and cause reductions in annual growth, stem defects, and regeneration delays. In British Columbia, the WSB is the second most damaging insect after the mountain pine beetle, and sustained and/or severe defoliation can result in the mortality of host trees. Numerous studies have used tree rings to reconstruct WSB outbreaks across long temporal scales, to evaluate losses in stand productivity, and examine isotope ratios. Although some studies have looked at the impacts of artificial defoliation on balsam fir in eastern North America, there has been no prior research on how WSB outbreaks affect the anatomical structure of the stem as described by intra-annual wood density and potential cell size variations. The objective of this study was to anatomically examine the response of Douglas-fir to sustained WSB outbreaks in two regions of southern British Columbia. We hypothesize that the anatomical intra-annual characteristics of the tree rings, such as cell wall thickness, latewood cell size, and/or lumen area changes during sustained WSB outbreaks. To test this hypothesis we sampled four permanent sample plots in coastal and dry interior sites, which had annually resolved defoliation data collected over a 7-12 year period. At each site diameter-at-breast height (cm), height (m), and crown position were recorded and three increment cores were extracted from 25 trees. Increment cores were prepared to permit anatomical and x-ray density analyses. For each tree, a 15µm thick micro section was cut from the radial plane. Digital images of the micro sections were captured and processed. In each annual ring, features such as cell lumen area (µm2), cell wall thickness (µm), lumen diameter (µm), and total cell width (µm) were measured. Preliminary results indicate that earlywood parameters remain quite stable during WSB outbreak, while latewood parameters such as secondary cell wall thickness and cell length undergo step shifts at the beginning and end of outbreaks. These parameters, tree-level data, and annual defoliation data will further be tested to determine if changes in stem wood anatomy during WSB outbreaks were statistically significant.

Magnitude and frequency variations of vector-borne infection outbreaks using the Ross-Macdonald model: explaining and predicting outbreaks of dengue fever.

PubMed

Amaku, M; Azevedo, F; Burattini, M N; Coelho, G E; Coutinho, F A B; Greenhalgh, D; Lopez, L F; Motitsuki, R S; Wilder-Smith, A; Massad, E

2016-08-19

The classical Ross-Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections; however, this model fails on several fronts. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, which values are accepted from the literature, the model predicts a much greater number of cases than what is usually observed. Second, the model predicts a single large outbreak that is followed by decades of much smaller outbreaks, which is not consistent with what is observed. Usually towns or cities report a number of recurrences for many years, even when environmental changes cannot explain the disappearance of the infection between the peaks. In this paper, we continue to examine the pitfalls in modelling this class of infections, and explain that, if properly used, the Ross-Macdonald model works and can be used to understand the patterns of epidemics and even, to some extent, be used to make predictions. We model several outbreaks of dengue fever and show that the variable pattern of yearly recurrence (or its absence) can be understood and explained by a simple Ross-Macdonald model modified to take into account human movement across a range of neighbourhoods within a city. In addition, we analyse the effect of seasonal variations in the parameters that determine the number, longevity and biting behaviour of mosquitoes. Based on the size of the first outbreak, we show that it is possible to estimate the proportion of the remaining susceptible individuals and to predict the likelihood and magnitude of the eventual subsequent outbreaks. This approach is described based on actual dengue outbreaks with different recurrence patterns from some Brazilian regions.

Signature-forecasting and early outbreak detection system

PubMed Central

Naumova, Elena N.; MacNeill, Ian B.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Daily disease monitoring via a public health surveillance system provides valuable information on population risks. Efficient statistical tools for early detection of rapid changes in the disease incidence are a must for modern surveillance. The need for statistical tools for early detection of outbreaks that are not based on historical information is apparent. A system is discussed for monitoring cases of infections with a view to early detection of outbreaks and to forecasting the extent of detected outbreaks. We propose a set of adaptive algorithms for early outbreak detection that does not rely on extensive historical recording. We also include knowledge of infection disease epidemiology into forecasts. To demonstrate this system we use data from the largest water-borne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Historical data are smoothed using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of a new datum, the smoothing is updated and estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smooth curve, and these are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and the near-term forecasts are used to compute a color-coded warning index, which quantify the level of concern. The algorithms for computing the warning index have been designed to balance Type I errors (false prediction of an epidemic) and Type II errors (failure to correctly predict an epidemic). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, then a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak is made. This longer term forecast is made by fitting a ‘signature’ curve to the available data. The effectiveness of the forecast depends upon the extent to which the signature curve captures the shape of outbreaks of the infection under consideration. PMID:18716671

Serological evidence of asymptomatic infections during Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011.

PubMed

Balabanova, Yanina; Klar, Stefanie; Deleré, Yvonne; Wilking, Hendrik; Faber, Mirko S; Lassen, Sofie Gillesberg; Gilsdorf, Andreas; Dupke, Susann; Nitschke, Martin; Sayk, Friedhelm; Grunow, Roland; Krause, Gérard

2013-01-01

The largest known outbreak caused by a rare hybrid strain of Shiga toxin-producing E.coli (STEC) and enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) (E.coli O104:H4) of serotype O104:H4 occurred in Germany in 2011. Fenugreek sprouts acted as a transmission vehicle and were widely consumed in the outbreak area at the time of the epidemic. In total 3,842 people developed a clinical illness caused by this strain; however the rates of asymptomatic infections remain unclear. We aimed to develop a serological assay for detection of E.coli O104 LPS specific antibodies and to establish the post-outbreak levels of seropositivity among people with documented exposure to contaminated sprouts. Developed serological assays (ELISA with 84% sensitivity, 63% specificity and Western Blot with 100% sensitivity, 82.5% specificity) identified 33% (16/49) level of asymptomatic infection. Relatively small sample size and a significant time- lapse between the onset of symptoms and serum samples collection (appr. 8 weeks) might explain the assay variability. No association was found between clinical or demographic characteristics and assay positivity. Larger studies are needed to understand the complexity of human immune response and factors influencing development of clinical symptoms. Development of intra-outbreak research plans will substantially aid the conduct of more thorough scientific investigation during an outbreak period.

Assessment of farm-level biosecurity measures after an outbreak of avian influenza in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Knight-Jones, T J D; Gibbens, J; Wooldridge, M; Stärk, K D C

2011-02-01

During Avian Influenza outbreaks in England, the 'AI Order' states that a poultry keeper may be required to keep domestic birds separate from wild birds. This study aimed to assess a) how effectively this was done and b) the negative impact this had for bird owners and animal welfare during the November 2007 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Suffolk, UK. A voluntary questionnaire was posted to holdings (n=296) that were within 10 km of an infected premises; these holdings were required to separate domestic and wild birds where possible. Holdings were identified during outbreak investigations conducted by the authorities. Holdings of all sizes were included. A sample of holdings received a follow-up visit or telephone call to validate the questionnaire (n=29). From the 38% of eligible holdings that responded, 13% (95% CI 7-22%) left their birds outdoors throughout the outbreak. If game birds were excluded, 9% (CI 4-17%) of holdings did not house their birds. Major cost and welfare problems were rare; however, there were exceptions. Enforced housing was often relaxed before a minor welfare problem deteriorated. Contact between wild and domestic birds was greatly reduced during the outbreak, resulting in a reduced probability of HPAI transmission via wild birds for most, but not all, holdings. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Using multitype branching processes to quantify statistics of disease outbreaks in zoonotic epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarabjeet; Schneider, David J.; Myers, Christopher R.

2014-03-01

Branching processes have served as a model for chemical reactions, biological growth processes, and contagion (of disease, information, or fads). Through this connection, these seemingly different physical processes share some common universalities that can be elucidated by analyzing the underlying branching process. In this work we focus on coupled branching processes as a model of infectious diseases spreading from one population to another. An exceedingly important example of such coupled outbreaks are zoonotic infections that spill over from animal populations to humans. We derive several statistical quantities characterizing the first spillover event from animals to humans, including the probability of spillover, the first passage time distribution for human infection, and disease prevalence in the animal population at spillover. Large stochastic fluctuations in those quantities can make inference of the state of the system at the time of spillover difficult. Focusing on outbreaks in the human population, we then characterize the critical threshold for a large outbreak, the distribution of outbreak sizes, and associated scaling laws. These all show a strong dependence on the basic reproduction number in the animal population and indicate the existence of a novel multicritical point with altered scaling behavior. The coupling of animal and human infection dynamics has crucial implications, most importantly allowing for the possibility of large human outbreaks even when human-to-human transmission is subcritical.

Bio-ALIRT biosurveillance detection algorithm evaluation.

PubMed

Siegrist, David; Pavlin, J

2004-09-24

Early detection of disease outbreaks by a medical biosurveillance system relies on two major components: 1) the contribution of early and reliable data sources and 2) the sensitivity, specificity, and timeliness of biosurveillance detection algorithms. This paper describes an effort to assess leading detection algorithms by arranging a common challenge problem and providing a common data set. The objectives of this study were to determine whether automated detection algorithms can reliably and quickly identify the onset of natural disease outbreaks that are surrogates for possible terrorist pathogen releases, and do so at acceptable false-alert rates (e.g., once every 2-6 weeks). Historic de-identified data were obtained from five metropolitan areas over 23 months; these data included International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes related to respiratory and gastrointestinal illness syndromes. An outbreak detection group identified and labeled two natural disease outbreaks in these data and provided them to analysts for training of detection algorithms. All outbreaks in the remaining test data were identified but not revealed to the detection groups until after their analyses. The algorithms established a probability of outbreak for each day's counts. The probability of outbreak was assessed as an "actual" alert for different false-alert rates. The best algorithms were able to detect all of the outbreaks at false-alert rates of one every 2-6 weeks. They were often able to detect for the same day human investigators had identified as the true start of the outbreak. Because minimal data exists for an actual biologic attack, determining how quickly an algorithm might detect such an attack is difficult. However, application of these algorithms in combination with other data-analysis methods to historic outbreak data indicates that biosurveillance techniques for analyzing syndrome counts can rapidly detect seasonal respiratory and gastrointestinal illness outbreaks. Further research is needed to assess the value of electronic data sources for predictive detection. In addition, simulations need to be developed and implemented to better characterize the size and type of biologic attack that can be detected by current methods by challenging them under different projected operational conditions.

Optimizing Real-Time Vaccine Allocation in a Stochastic SIR Model

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Chantal; Carlson, Jean M.

2016-01-01

Real-time vaccination following an outbreak can effectively mitigate the damage caused by an infectious disease. However, in many cases, available resources are insufficient to vaccinate the entire at-risk population, logistics result in delayed vaccine deployment, and the interaction between members of different cities facilitates a wide spatial spread of infection. Limited vaccine, time delays, and interaction (or coupling) of cities lead to tradeoffs that impact the overall magnitude of the epidemic. These tradeoffs mandate investigation of optimal strategies that minimize the severity of the epidemic by prioritizing allocation of vaccine to specific subpopulations. We use an SIR model to describe the disease dynamics of an epidemic which breaks out in one city and spreads to another. We solve a master equation to determine the resulting probability distribution of the final epidemic size. We then identify tradeoffs between vaccine, time delay, and coupling, and we determine the optimal vaccination protocols resulting from these tradeoffs. PMID:27043931

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

PubMed Central

Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor; Tatem, Andrew J.; Baele, Guy; Faria, Nuno R.; Park, Daniel J.; Ladner, Jason T.; Arias, Armando; Asogun, Danny; Bielejec, Filip; Caddy, Sarah L.; Cotten, Matthew; D’Ambrozio, Jonathan; Dellicour, Simon; Di Caro, Antonino; Diclaro, JosephW.; Duraffour, Sophie; Elmore, Michael J.; Fakoli, Lawrence S.; Faye, Ousmane; Gilbert, Merle L.; Gevao, Sahr M.; Gire, Stephen; Gladden-Young, Adrianne; Gnirke, Andreas; Goba, Augustine; Grant, Donald S.; Haagmans, Bart L.; Hiscox, Julian A.; Jah, Umaru; Kargbo, Brima; Kugelman, Jeffrey R.; Liu, Di; Lu, Jia; Malboeuf, Christine M.; Mate, Suzanne; Matthews, David A.; Matranga, Christian B.; Meredith, Luke W.; Qu, James; Quick, Joshua; Pas, Suzan D.; Phan, My VT; Pollakis, Georgios; Reusken, Chantal B.; Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano; Schaffner, Stephen F.; Schieffelin, John S.; Sealfon, Rachel S.; Simon-Loriere, Etienne; Smits, Saskia L.; Stoecker, Kilian; Thorne, Lucy; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Vandi, Mohamed A.; Watson, Simon J.; West, Kendra; Whitmer, Shannon; Wiley, Michael R.; Winnicki, Sarah M.; Wohl, Shirlee; Wölfel, Roman; Yozwiak, Nathan L.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Blyden, Sylvia O.; Bolay, Fatorma; Carroll, MilesW.; Dahn, Bernice; Diallo, Boubacar; Formenty, Pierre; Fraser, Christophe; Gao, George F.; Garry, Robert F.; Goodfellow, Ian; Günther, Stephan; Happi, Christian T.; Holmes, Edward C.; Kargbo, Brima; Keïta, Sakoba; Kellam, Paul; Koopmans, Marion P. G.; Kuhn, Jens H.; Loman, Nicholas J.; Magassouba, N’Faly; Naidoo, Dhamari; Nichol, Stuart T.; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Palacios, Gustavo; Pybus, Oliver G.; Sabeti, Pardis C.; Sall, Amadou; Ströher, Ute; Wurie, Isatta; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew

2017-01-01

The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Analysing 1610 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing they were susceptible to significant outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform interventions in future epidemics. PMID:28405027

Rubella outbreak and outbreak management in a school setting, China, 2014.

PubMed

Chang, Caiyun; Ma, Huilai; Liang, Wenjia; Hu, Pei; Mo, Xianghuan; An, Zhijie; Zheng, Huizhen

2017-04-03

An active response to a rubella outbreak may interrupt disease transmission, and outbreak response immunization (ORI) can increase immunity among persons who might otherwise not be protected. On March 17, 2014, a rubella outbreak was reported in a middle school in Guangzhou city, China. We conducted an investigation to assess impact of a policy of exclusion of cases from school and of ORI. Active surveillance was used to find cases of rubella. Investigators interviewed teachers and reviewed the absentee records to determine implementation details of school exclusion. ORI was recommended on 2 occasions during the outbreak, one small-scale and one large-scale. Laboratory confirmation tests included serum IgM and IgG measurements to distinguish between acute infection and immunity. A serological survey in 4 classes was used to determine immunity status and identify symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. From February 17 to May 23, 2014, 162 rubella cases (24 laboratory-confirmed and 138 epidemiologically linked) were detected among 1,621 students. Cases ultimately occurred in 27 classes (72.97%) across 37 classes. In 11 classes in which exclusion from school was delayed by 1 or more days, the secondary attack rate was 12.30%, compared with 2.35% in 15 classes with immediate exclusion. ORI increased vaccine coverage from 25.83 % to 86.92%, and the final case of the epidemic was reported one month later. A serological survey of 91 students in 4 classes identified 15 cases, 6 of which were asymptomatic. The outbreak happened in school with low rubella-containing vaccination coverage. Exclusion from school upon rash/fever onset was associated with lowering the secondary attack rate, but school exclusion alone was not able to stop this outbreak - a large ORI was needed. Assuring complete vaccination upon entry to school is likely to be necessary to ensure coverage is above the herd immunity threshold and prevent outbreaks from happening.

Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data

PubMed Central

Stack, J. Conrad; Bansal, Shweta; Kumar, V. S. Anil; Grenfell, Bryan

2013-01-01

Models of infectious disease spread that incorporate contact heterogeneity through contact networks are an important tool for epidemiologists studying disease dynamics and assessing intervention strategies. One of the challenges of contact network epidemiology has been the difficulty of collecting individual and population-level data needed to develop an accurate representation of the underlying host population's contact structure. In this study, we evaluate the utility of common epidemiological measures (R0, epidemic peak size, duration and final size) for inferring the degree of heterogeneity in a population's unobserved contact structure through a Bayesian approach. We test the method using ground truth data and find that some of these epidemiological metrics are effective at classifying contact heterogeneity. The classification is also consistent across pathogen transmission probabilities, and so can be applied even when this characteristic is unknown. In particular, the reproductive number, R0, turns out to be a poor classifier of the degree heterogeneity, while, unexpectedly, final epidemic size is a powerful predictor of network structure across the range of heterogeneity. We also evaluate our framework on empirical epidemiological data from past and recent outbreaks to demonstrate its application in practice and to gather insights about the relevance of particular contact structures for both specific systems and general classes of infectious disease. We thus introduce a simple approach that can shed light on the unobserved connectivity of a host population given epidemic data. Our study has the potential to inform future data-collection efforts and study design by driving our understanding of germane epidemic measures, and highlights a general inferential approach to learning about host contact structure in contemporary or historic populations of humans and animals. PMID:23034353

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

2014-05-29

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

2014-01-01

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics. PMID:24872257

The severe acute respiratory syndrome: impact on travel and tourism.

PubMed

Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2006-03-01

SARS and travel are intricately interlinked. Travelers belonged to those primarily affected in the early stages of the outbreak, travelers became vectors of the disease, and finally, travel and tourism themselves became the victims. The outbreak of SARS created international anxiety because of its novelty, its ease of transmission in certain settings, and the speed of its spread through jet travel, combined with extensive media coverage. The psychological impacts of SARS, coupled with travel restrictions imposed by various national and international authorities, have diminished international travel in 2003, far beyond the limitations to truly SARS hit areas. Governments and press, especially in non SARS affected areas, have been slow to strike the right balance between timely and frequent risk communication and placing risk in the proper context. Screening at airport entry points is costly, has a low yield and is not sufficient in itself. The low yield in detecting SARS is most likely due to a combination of factors, such as travel advisories which resulted in reduced travel to and from SARS affected areas, implementation of effective pre-departure screening at airports in SARS-hit countries, and a rapid decline in new cases at the time when screening was finally introduced. Rather than investing in airport screening measures to detect rare infectious diseases, investments should be used to strengthen screening and infection control capacities at points of entry into the healthcare system. If SARS reoccurs, the subsequent outbreak will be smaller and more easily contained if the lessons learnt from the recent epidemic are applied. Lessons learnt during the outbreak in relation to international travel will be discussed.

Questions on causality and responsibility arising from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in Norway

PubMed Central

Iversen, Bjørn G; Hofmann, Bjørn; Aavitsland, Preben

2008-01-01

In 2002, Norway experienced a large outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in hospitals with 231 confirmed cases. This fuelled intense public and professional debates on what were the causes and who were responsible. In epidemiology, other sciences, in philosophy and in law there is a long tradition of discussing the concept of causality. We use this outbreak as a case; apply various theories of causality from different disciplines to discuss the roles and responsibilities of some of the parties involved. Mackie's concept of INUS conditions, Hill's nine viewpoints to study association for claiming causation, deterministic and probabilistic ways of reasoning, all shed light on the issues of causality in this outbreak. Moreover, applying legal theories of causation (counterfactual reasoning and the "but-for" test and the NESS test) proved especially useful, but the case also illustrated the weaknesses of the various theories of causation. We conclude that many factors contributed to causing the outbreak, but that contamination of a medical device in the production facility was the major necessary condition. The reuse of the medical device in hospitals contributed primarily to the size of the outbreak. The unintended error by its producer – and to a minor extent by the hospital practice – was mainly due to non-application of relevant knowledge and skills, and appears to constitute professional negligence. Due to criminal procedure laws and other factors outside the discourse of causality, no one was criminally charged for the outbreak which caused much suffering and shortening the life of at least 34 people. PMID:18947429

Recovery Potential of a Western Lowland Gorilla Population following a Major Ebola Outbreak: Results from a Ten Year Study

PubMed Central

Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Bigot, Elodie; Caillaud, Damien; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly

2012-01-01

Investigating the recovery capacity of wildlife populations following demographic crashes is of great interest to ecologists and conservationists. Opportunities to study these aspects are rare due to the difficulty of monitoring populations both before and after a demographic crash. Ebola outbreaks in central Africa have killed up to 95% of the individuals in affected western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations. Assessing whether and how fast affected populations recover is essential for the conservation of this critically endangered taxon. The gorilla population visiting Lokoué forest clearing, Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Republic of the Congo, has been monitored before, two years after and six years after Ebola affected it in 2004. This allowed us to describe Ebola's short-term and long-term impacts on the structure of the population. The size of the population, which included around 380 gorillas before the Ebola outbreak, dropped to less than 40 individuals after the outbreak. It then remained stable for six years after the outbreak. However, the demographic structure of this small population has significantly changed. Although several solitary males have disappeared, the immigration of adult females, the formation of new breeding groups, and several birth events suggest that the population is showing potential to recover. During the outbreak, surviving adult and subadult females joined old solitary silverbacks. Those females were subsequently observed joining young silverbacks, forming new breeding groups where they later gave birth. Interestingly, some females were observed joining silverbacks that were unlikely to have sired their infant, but no infanticide was observed. The consequences of the Ebola outbreak on the population structure were different two years and six years after the outbreak. Therefore, our results could be used as demographic indicators to detect and date outbreaks that have happened in other, non-monitored gorilla populations. PMID:22649511

Recovery potential of a western lowland gorilla population following a major Ebola outbreak: results from a ten year study.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Cristescu, Romane; Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Bigot, Elodie; Caillaud, Damien; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly

2012-01-01

Investigating the recovery capacity of wildlife populations following demographic crashes is of great interest to ecologists and conservationists. Opportunities to study these aspects are rare due to the difficulty of monitoring populations both before and after a demographic crash. Ebola outbreaks in central Africa have killed up to 95% of the individuals in affected western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations. Assessing whether and how fast affected populations recover is essential for the conservation of this critically endangered taxon. The gorilla population visiting Lokoué forest clearing, Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Republic of the Congo, has been monitored before, two years after and six years after Ebola affected it in 2004. This allowed us to describe Ebola's short-term and long-term impacts on the structure of the population. The size of the population, which included around 380 gorillas before the Ebola outbreak, dropped to less than 40 individuals after the outbreak. It then remained stable for six years after the outbreak. However, the demographic structure of this small population has significantly changed. Although several solitary males have disappeared, the immigration of adult females, the formation of new breeding groups, and several birth events suggest that the population is showing potential to recover. During the outbreak, surviving adult and subadult females joined old solitary silverbacks. Those females were subsequently observed joining young silverbacks, forming new breeding groups where they later gave birth. Interestingly, some females were observed joining silverbacks that were unlikely to have sired their infant, but no infanticide was observed. The consequences of the Ebola outbreak on the population structure were different two years and six years after the outbreak. Therefore, our results could be used as demographic indicators to detect and date outbreaks that have happened in other, non-monitored gorilla populations.

Trace-back and trace-forward tools developed ad hoc and used during the STEC O104:H4 outbreak 2011 in Germany and generic concepts for future outbreak situations.

PubMed

Weiser, Armin A; Gross, Stefan; Schielke, Anika; Wigger, Jan-Frederik; Ernert, Andrea; Adolphs, Julian; Fetsch, Alexandra; Müller-Graf, Christine; Käsbohrer, Annemarie; Mosbach-Schulz, Olaf; Appel, Bernd; Greiner, Matthias

2013-03-01

The Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011 required the development of appropriate tools in real-time for tracing suspicious foods along the supply chain, namely salad ingredients, sprouts, and seeds. Food commodities consumed at locations identified as most probable site of infection (outbreak clusters) were traced back in order to identify connections between different disease clusters via the supply chain of the foods. A newly developed relational database with integrated consistency and plausibility checks was used to collate these data for further analysis. Connections between suppliers, distributors, and producers were visualized in network graphs and geographic projections. Finally, this trace-back and trace-forward analysis led to the identification of sprouts produced by a horticultural farm in Lower Saxony as vehicle for the pathogen, and a specific lot of fenugreek seeds imported from Egypt as the most likely source of contamination. Network graphs have proven to be a powerful tool for summarizing and communicating complex trade relationships to various stake holders. The present article gives a detailed description of the newly developed tracing tools and recommendations for necessary requirements and improvements for future foodborne outbreak investigations.

Characterization of an Outbreak of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit in Italy.

PubMed

Corbella, Marta; Caltagirone, Mariasofia; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Mariani, Bianca; Sassera, Davide; Bitar, Ibrahim; Muzzi, Alba; Migliavacca, Roberta; Scudeller, Luigia; Stronati, Mauro; Cambieri, Patrizia

2018-01-25

Here we report an outbreak of extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae that occurred in a neonatal intensive care unit in Northern Italy and involved 97 patients. Progressively tightened sets of containment measures were implemented but the epidemic event was stopped only 9 months later. The final, effective, containment strategy consisted of the application of strict geographic cohorting of colonized infants and their nursing staff, the suspension of any new admission and a rigorous daily sterilization protocol for all surfaces and fomites in the ward. A posteriori characterization of the outbreak strain was performed using both traditional microbiology and molecular biology techniques, and whole genome sequencing, allowing to compare outbreak isolates with other strains collected in the previous two years. The results allowed to determine that the outbreak strain had been circulating inside the ward since the year before. Genomic characterization revealed that the strain carried a wide array of virulence and antibiotic resistance determinants, including gene bla TEM-206 , which had never been reported in a clinical isolate of K. pneumoniae before. The presence of such a high number of determinants for antibiotic resistance imposes significant therapeutic limitations on the treatment of infections, thus, further epidemiological investigations are needed to evaluate the prevalence of the newly described variant.

Secondary Contact and Admixture between Independently Invading Populations of the Western Corn Rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera in Europe

PubMed Central

Bermond, Gérald; Ciosi, Marc; Lombaert, Eric; Blin, Aurélie; Boriani, Marco; Furlan, Lorenzo; Toepfer, Stefan; Guillemaud, Thomas

2012-01-01

The western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is one of the most destructive pests of corn in North America and is currently invading Europe. The two major invasive outbreaks of rootworm in Europe have occurred, in North-West Italy and in Central and South-Eastern Europe. These two outbreaks originated from independent introductions from North America. Secondary contact probably occurred in North Italy between these two outbreaks, in 2008. We used 13 microsatellite markers to conduct a population genetics study, to demonstrate that this geographic contact resulted in a zone of admixture in the Italian region of Veneto. We show that i) genetic variation is greater in the contact zone than in the parental outbreaks; ii) several signs of admixture were detected in some Venetian samples, in a Bayesian analysis of the population structure and in an approximate Bayesian computation analysis of historical scenarios and, finally, iii) allelic frequency clines were observed at microsatellite loci. The contact between the invasive outbreaks in North-West Italy and Central and South-Eastern Europe resulted in a zone of admixture, with particular characteristics. The evolutionary implications of the existence of a zone of admixture in Northern Italy and their possible impact on the invasion success of the western corn rootworm are discussed. PMID:23189184

Effects of fear factors in disease propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yubo; Xiao, Gaoxi; Wong, Limsoon; Fu, Xiuju; Ma, Stefan; Hiang Cheng, Tee

2011-09-01

Upon an outbreak of a dangerous infectious disease, people generally tend to reduce their contacts with others in fear of getting infected. Such typical actions apparently help slow down the spreading of infection. Thanks to today's broad public media coverage, the fear factor may even contribute to preventing an outbreak from happening. We are motivated to study such effects by adopting a complex network approach. First we evaluate the simple case where connections between individuals are randomly removed due to the fear factor. Then we consider a different case where each individual keeps at least a few connections after contact reduction. Such a case is arguably more realistic since people may choose to keep a few social contacts, e.g., with their family members and closest friends, at any cost. Finally, a study is conducted on the case where connection removals are carried out dynamically while the infection is spreading out. Analytical and simulation results show that the fear factor may not easily prevent an epidemic outbreak from happening in scale-free networks. However, it significantly reduces the fraction of the nodes ever getting infected during the outbreak.

Temporal Epidemiology of Sudden Oak Death in Oregon.

PubMed

Peterson, Ebba K; Hansen, Everett M; Kanaskie, Alan

2015-07-01

An effort to eradicate Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death, has been underway since its discovery in Oregon forests. Using an information-theoretical approach, we sought to model yearly variation in the size of newly infested areas and dispersal distance. Maximum dispersal distances were best modeled by spring and winter precipitation 2 years before detection, and infestation size the year prior. Infestation size was best modeled by infestation size and spring precipitation the year prior. In our interpretation, there is a 2-year delay between the introduction of inoculum and onset of mortality for a majority of sites. The year-long gap in between allows ample time for the production of inoculum contributing to the spread of P. ramorum. This is supported by epidemic development following changes in eradication protocols precipitated by an outbreak in 2011, attributable to a 2009 treatment delay and an uncharacteristically wet spring in 2010. Posteradication, we have observed an increase in the total area of new outbreaks and increased frequency in dispersal distances greater than 4 km. Although the eradication program has not eliminated P. ramorum from Oregon forests, it has likely moderated this epidemic, emphasizing the need for prompt treatment of future invasive forest pathogens.

Does Water Hyacinth on East African Lakes Promote Cholera Outbreaks?

PubMed Central

Feikin, Daniel R.; Tabu, Collins W.; Gichuki, John

2010-01-01

Cholera outbreaks continue to occur regularly in Africa. Cholera has been associated with proximity to lakes in East Africa, and Vibrio cholerae has been found experimentally to concentrate on the floating aquatic plant, water hyacinth, which is periodically widespread in East African lakes since the late 1980s. From 1994 to 2008, Nyanza Province, which is the Kenyan province bordering Lake Victoria, accounted for a larger proportion of cholera cases than expected by its population size (38.7% of cholera cases versus 15.3% of national population). Yearly water-hyacinth coverage on the Kenyan section of Lake Victoria was positively associated with the number of cholera cases reported in Nyanza Province (r = 0.83; P = 0.0010). Water hyacinth on freshwater lakes might play a role in initiating cholera outbreaks and causing sporadic disease in East Africa. PMID:20682884

Investigating Coral Disease Spread Across the Hawaiian Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sziklay, Jamie

Coral diseases negatively impact reef ecosystems and they are increasing worldwide; yet, we have a limited understanding of the factors that influence disease risk and transmission. My dissertation research investigated coral disease spread for several common coral diseases in the Hawaiian archipelago to understand how host-pathogenenvironment interactions vary across different spatial scales and how we can use that information to improve management strategies. At broad spatial scales, I developed forecasting models to predict outbreak risk based on depth, coral density and temperature anomalies from remotely sensed data (chapter 1). In this chapter, I determined that host density, total coral density, depth and winter temperature variation were important predictors of disease prevalence for several coral diseases. Expanding on the predictive models, I also found that colony size, wave energy, water quality, fish abundance and nearby human population size altered disease risk (chapter 2). Most of the model variation occurred at the scale of sites and coastline, indicating that local coral composition and water quality were key determinants of disease risk. At the reef scale, I investigated factors that influence disease transmission among individuals using a tissue loss disease outbreak in Kane'ohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i as a case study (chapter 3). I determined that host size, proximity to infected neighbors and numbers of infected neighbors were associated with disease risk. Disease transmission events were very localized (within 15 m) and rates changed dramatically over the course of the outbreak: the transmission rate initially increased quickly during the outbreak and then decreased steadily until the outbreak ended. At the colony scale, I investigated disease progression between polyps within individual coral colonies using confocal microscopy (chapter 4). Here, I determined that fragmented florescent pigment distributions appeared adjacent to the disease front of infected coral and had fewer intact polyps than in healthy coral fragments. These results suggested that disease progression within colonies affected with chronic and acute Montipora white syndromes are highly localized rather than systemic and their bacterial pathogens directly attack the coral tissue rather than zooxanthellae. Overall, my dissertation research indicates that watershed condition and coral community configuration can facilitate and/or inhibit coral disease spread, and that disease transmission may be more spatially constrained than previously thought.

A method to identify the areas at risk for the introduction of avian influenza virus into poultry flocks through direct contact with wild ducks.

PubMed

Galletti, G; Santi, A; Guberti, V; Paternoster, G; Licata, E; Loli Piccolomini, L; Procopio, A; Tamba, M

2018-02-22

Wild dabbling ducks are the main reservoir for avian influenza (AI) viruses and pose an ongoing threat to commercial poultry flocks. Combining the (i) size of that population, (ii) their flight distances and (iii) their AI prevalence, the density of AI-infected dabbling ducks (DID) was calculated as a risk factor for the introduction of AI viruses into poultry holdings of Emilia-Romagna region, Northern Italy. Data on 747 poultry holdings and on 39 AI primary outbreaks notified in Emilia-Romagna between 2000 and 2017 were used to validate that risk factor. A multivariable Bayesian logistic regression was performed to assess whether DID could be associated with the occurrence of AI primary outbreaks. DID value, being an outdoor flock, hobby poultry trading, species reared, length of cycle and flock size were used as explanatory variables. Being an outdoor poultry flock was significantly associated with a higher risk of AI outbreak occurrence. The probability of DID to be a risk factor for AI virus introduction was estimated to be 90%. A DID cut-off of 0.23 was identified to define high-risk areas for AI virus introduction. Using this value, the high-risk area covers 43% of the region. Seventy-four per cent of the primary AI outbreaks have occurred in that area, containing 39% of the regional poultry holdings. Poultry holdings located in areas with a high DID value should be included in a risk-based surveillance programme aimed at AI early detection. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Tuning the overlap and the cross-layer correlations in two-layer networks: Application to a susceptible-infectious-recovered model with awareness dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juher, David; Saldaña, Joan

2018-03-01

We study the properties of the potential overlap between two networks A ,B sharing the same set of N nodes (a two-layer network) whose respective degree distributions pA(k ) ,pB(k ) are given. Defining the overlap coefficient α as the Jaccard index, we prove that α is very close to 0 when A and B are random and independently generated. We derive an upper bound αM for the maximum overlap coefficient permitted in terms of pA(k ) , pB(k ) , and N . Then we present an algorithm based on cross rewiring of links to obtain a two-layer network with any prescribed α inside the range (0 ,αM) . A refined version of the algorithm allows us to minimize the cross-layer correlations that unavoidably appear for values of α beyond a critical overlap αc<αM . Finally, we present a very simple example of a susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model with information dissemination and use the algorithms to determine the impact of the overlap on the final outbreak size predicted by the model.

Waterborne gastroenteritis outbreak at a scouting camp caused by two norovirus genogroups: GI and GII.

PubMed

ter Waarbeek, Henriëtte L G; Dukers-Muijrers, Nicole H T M; Vennema, Harry; Hoebe, Christian J P A

2010-03-01

A cross-border gastroenteritis outbreak at a scouting camp was associated with drinking water from a farmer's well. A retrospective cohort study was performed to identify size and source of the outbreak, as well as other characteristics. Epidemiological investigation included standardized questionnaires about sex, age, risk exposures, illness and family members. Stool and water (100mL) samples were analyzed for bacteria, viruses and parasites. Questionnaires were returned by 84 scouts (response rate 82%), mean age of 13 years. The primary attack rate was 85% (diarrhoea and/or vomiting). Drinking water was the strongest independent risk factor showing a dose-response effect with 50%, 75%, 75%, 93% and 96% case prevalence for 0, 1, 2-3, 4-5 and >5 glasses consumed, respectively. Norovirus (GI.2 Southampton and GII.7 Leeds) was detected in 51 stool specimens (75%) from ill scouts. Water analysis showed fecal contamination, but no norovirus. The secondary attack rate was 20%. This remarkable outbreak was caused by a point-source infection with two genogroups of noroviruses most likely transmitted by drinking water from a well. Finding a dose-response relationship was striking. Specific measures to reduce the risk of waterborne diseases, outbreak investigation and a good international public health network are important.

A Space–Time Permutation Scan Statistic for Disease Outbreak Detection

PubMed Central

Kulldorff, Martin; Heffernan, Richard; Hartman, Jessica; Assunção, Renato; Mostashari, Farzad

2005-01-01

Background The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. Methods and Findings We propose a prospective space–time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks that uses only case numbers, with no need for population-at-risk data. It makes minimal assumptions about the time, geographical location, or size of the outbreak, and it adjusts for natural purely spatial and purely temporal variation. The new method was evaluated using daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits in New York City. Four of the five strongest signals were likely local precursors to citywide outbreaks due to rotavirus, norovirus, and influenza. The number of false signals was at most modest. Conclusion If such results hold up over longer study times and in other locations, the space–time permutation scan statistic will be an important tool for local and national health departments that are setting up early disease detection surveillance systems. PMID:15719066

Use of Digital Pens for Rapid Epidemiologic Data Collection During a Foodborne Outbreak Investigation.

PubMed

Mathewson, Abigail A; Daly, Elizabeth R; Cavallo, Steffany J; Alic, Adnela

2015-08-01

Public health investigations require rapid assessment, response, and initiation of control measures. In 2012, the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services used digital pens to rapidly acquire epidemiologic data during a gastrointestinal illness outbreak. Menus were obtained and a standard questionnaire was administered to exposed persons using digital pens. Questionnaire data were downloaded into an electronic file for analysis. Sixty-nine (74%) of 93 exposed persons completed a questionnaire. Of 6389 data entries made on digital paper, 218 (3%) required correction; of these, 201 (92%) involved a free-form variable and 17 (8%) involved a check-box variable. Digital pens saved an estimated 5 to 6 hours of data-entry time. This outbreak provided an opportunity to assess the value of digital pens for decreasing data-entry burden and allowing more timely data analysis in an emergent setting. Depending on the size of the outbreak and complexity of the survey, there is likely a threshold when use of digital pens would provide a clear benefit to outbreak response. As new technology becomes available for use in emergency preparedness settings, public health agencies must continuously review and update response plans and evaluate investigation tools to ensure timely disease control and response activities.

Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

PubMed Central

Farrington, C. Paddy; Noufaily, Angela; Andrews, Nick J.; Charlett, Andre

2016-01-01

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace. PMID:27513749

Recombinant Temporal Aberration Detection Algorithms for Enhanced Biosurveillance

PubMed Central

Murphy, Sean Patrick; Burkom, Howard

2008-01-01

Objective Broadly, this research aims to improve the outbreak detection performance and, therefore, the cost effectiveness of automated syndromic surveillance systems by building novel, recombinant temporal aberration detection algorithms from components of previously developed detectors. Methods This study decomposes existing temporal aberration detection algorithms into two sequential stages and investigates the individual impact of each stage on outbreak detection performance. The data forecasting stage (Stage 1) generates predictions of time series values a certain number of time steps in the future based on historical data. The anomaly measure stage (Stage 2) compares features of this prediction to corresponding features of the actual time series to compute a statistical anomaly measure. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is then used to examine the recombinant algorithms’ ability to detect synthetic aberrations injected into authentic syndromic time series. Results New methods obtained with procedural components of published, sometimes widely used, algorithms were compared to the known methods using authentic datasets with plausible stochastic injected signals. Performance improvements were found for some of the recombinant methods, and these improvements were consistent over a range of data types, outbreak types, and outbreak sizes. For gradual outbreaks, the WEWD MovAvg7+WEWD Z-Score recombinant algorithm performed best; for sudden outbreaks, the HW+WEWD Z-Score performed best. Conclusion This decomposition was found not only to yield valuable insight into the effects of the aberration detection algorithms but also to produce novel combinations of data forecasters and anomaly measures with enhanced detection performance. PMID:17947614

Mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks given constraints in stockpile size and daily administration capacity

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Influenza viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination remains a powerful tool for preventing or mitigating influenza outbreaks. Yet, vaccine supplies and daily administration capacities are limited, even in developed countries. Understanding how such constraints can alter the mitigating effects of vaccination is a crucial part of influenza preparedness plans. Mathematical models provide tools for government and medical officials to assess the impact of different vaccination strategies and plan accordingly. However, many existing models of vaccination employ several questionable assumptions, including a rate of vaccination proportional to the population at each point in time. Methods We present a SIR-like model that explicitly takes into account vaccine supply and the number of vaccines administered per day and places data-informed limits on these parameters. We refer to this as the non-proportional model of vaccination and compare it to the proportional scheme typically found in the literature. Results The proportional and non-proportional models behave similarly for a few different vaccination scenarios. However, there are parameter regimes involving the vaccination campaign duration and daily supply limit for which the non-proportional model predicts smaller epidemics that peak later, but may last longer, than those of the proportional model. We also use the non-proportional model to predict the mitigating effects of variably timed vaccination campaigns for different levels of vaccination coverage, using specific constraints on daily administration capacity. Conclusions The non-proportional model of vaccination is a theoretical improvement that provides more accurate predictions of the mitigating effects of vaccination on influenza outbreaks than the proportional model. In addition, parameters such as vaccine supply and daily administration limit can be easily adjusted to simulate conditions in developed and developing nations with a wide variety of financial and medical resources. Finally, the model can be used by government and medical officials to create customized pandemic preparedness plans based on the supply and administration constraints of specific communities. PMID:21806800

Second generation subtyping: a proposed PulseNet protocol for multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157).

PubMed

Hyytiä-Trees, Eija; Smole, Sandra C; Fields, Patricia A; Swaminathan, Bala; Ribot, Efrain M

2006-01-01

Most bacterial genomes contain tandem duplications of short DNA sequences, termed "variable-number tandem repeats" (VNTR). A subtyping method targeting these repeats, multiple-locus VNTR analysis (MLVA), has emerged as a powerful tool for characterization of clonal organisms such as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157). We modified and optimized a recently published MLVA scheme targeting 29 polymorphic VNTR regions of STEC O157 to render it suitable for routine use by public health laboratories that participate in PulseNet, the national and international molecular subtyping network for foodborne disease surveillance. Nine VNTR loci were included in the final protocol. They were amplified in three PCR reactions, after which the PCR products were sized using capillary electrophoresis. Two hundred geographically diverse, sporadic and outbreak- related STEC O157 isolates were characterized by MLVA and the results were compared with data obtained by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) using XbaI macrorestriction of genomic DNA. A total of 139 unique XbaI PFGE patterns and 162 MLVA types were identified. A subset of 100 isolates characterized by both XbaI and BlnI macrorestriction had 62 unique PFGE and MLVA types. Although the clustering of isolates by the two subtyping systems was generally in agreement, some discrepancies were observed. Importantly, MLVA was able to discriminate among some epidemiologically unrelated isolates which were indistinguishable by PFGE. However, among strains from three of the eight outbreaks included in the study, two single locus MLVA variants and one double locus variant were detected among epidemiologically implicated isolates that were indistinguishable by PFGE. Conversely, in three other outbreaks, isolates that were indistinguishable by MLVA displayed multiple PFGE types. An additional more extensive multi-laboratory validation of the MLVA protocol is in progress in order to address critical issues such as establishing epidemiologically relevant interpretation guidelines for the MLVA data.

Poliovirus vaccination during the endgame: insights from integrated modeling.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

2017-06-01

Managing the polio endgame requires access to sufficient quantities of poliovirus vaccines. After oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation, outbreaks may occur that require outbreak response using monovalent OPV (mOPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine. Areas covered: We review the experience and challenges with managing vaccine supplies in the context of the polio endgame. Building on models that explored polio endgame risks and the potential mOPV needs to stop outbreaks from live poliovirus reintroductions, we conceptually explore the potential demands for finished and bulk mOPV doses from a stockpile in the context of limited shelf-life of finished vaccine and time delays to convert bulk to finished vaccine. Our analysis suggests that the required size of the mOPV stockpile varies by serotype, with the highest expected needs for serotype 1 mOPV. Based on realizations of poliovirus risks after OPV cessation, the stockpile required to eliminate the chance of a stock-out appears considerably larger than the currently planned mOPV stockpiles. Expert commentary: The total required stockpile size depends on the acceptable probability of a stock-out, and increases with longer times to finish bulk doses and shorter shelf-lives of finished doses. Successful polio endgame management will require careful attention to poliovirus vaccine supplies.

Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

PubMed

Thompson, Robin N; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2018-02-01

The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted more precisely. There is also the chance that the outbreak might die out without any intervention whatsoever, making prophylactic control unnecessary. Optimal decision-making involves continuously balancing these potential benefits of waiting against the possible costs of further spread. We introduce a generic, extensible data-driven algorithm based on parameter estimation and outbreak simulation for making decisions in real-time concerning when and how to control an invading pathogen. The Control Smart Algorithm (CSA) resolves the trade-off between the competing advantages of controlling as soon as possible and controlling later when more information has become available. We show-using a generic mathematical model representing the transmission of a pathogen of agricultural animals or plants through a population of farms or fields-how the CSA allows the timing and level of deployment of vaccination or chemical control to be optimised. In particular, the algorithm outperforms simpler strategies such as intervening when the outbreak size reaches a pre-specified threshold, or controlling when the outbreak has persisted for a threshold length of time. This remains the case even if the simpler methods are fully optimised in advance. Our work highlights the potential benefits of giving careful consideration to the question of when to start disease management during emerging outbreaks, and provides a concrete framework to allow policy-makers to make this decision.

Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea

PubMed Central

Graham, Matthew; Suk, Jonathan E.; Takahashi, Saki; Metcalf, C. Jessica; Jimenez, A. Paez; Prikazsky, Vladimir; Ferrari, Matthew J.; Lessler, Justin

2018-01-01

Abstract. We report on and evaluate the process and findings of a real-time modeling exercise in response to an outbreak of measles in Lola prefecture, Guinea, in early 2015 in the wake of the Ebola crisis. Multiple statistical methods for the estimation of the size of the susceptible (i.e., unvaccinated) population were applied to weekly reported measles case data on seven subprefectures throughout Lola. Stochastic compartmental models were used to project future measles incidence in each subprefecture in both an initial and a follow-up iteration of forecasting. Measles susceptibility among 1- to 5-year-olds was estimated to be between 24% and 43% at the beginning of the outbreak. Based on this high baseline susceptibility, initial projections forecasted a large outbreak occurring over approximately 10 weeks and infecting 40 children per 1,000. Subsequent forecasts based on updated data mitigated this initial projection, but still predicted a significant outbreak. A catch-up vaccination campaign took place at the same time as this second forecast and measles cases quickly receded. Of note, case reports used to fit models changed significantly between forecast rounds. Model-based projections of both current population risk and future incidence can help in setting priorities and planning during an outbreak response. A swiftly changing situation on the ground, coupled with data uncertainties and the need to adjust standard analytical approaches to deal with sparse data, presents significant challenges. Appropriate presentation of results as planning scenarios, as well as presentations of uncertainty and two-way communication, is essential to the effective use of modeling studies in outbreak response. PMID:29532773

Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea.

PubMed

Graham, Matthew; Suk, Jonathan E; Takahashi, Saki; Metcalf, C Jessica; Jimenez, A Paez; Prikazsky, Vladimir; Ferrari, Matthew J; Lessler, Justin

2018-05-01

We report on and evaluate the process and findings of a real-time modeling exercise in response to an outbreak of measles in Lola prefecture, Guinea, in early 2015 in the wake of the Ebola crisis. Multiple statistical methods for the estimation of the size of the susceptible (i.e., unvaccinated) population were applied to weekly reported measles case data on seven subprefectures throughout Lola. Stochastic compartmental models were used to project future measles incidence in each subprefecture in both an initial and a follow-up iteration of forecasting. Measles susceptibility among 1- to 5-year-olds was estimated to be between 24% and 43% at the beginning of the outbreak. Based on this high baseline susceptibility, initial projections forecasted a large outbreak occurring over approximately 10 weeks and infecting 40 children per 1,000. Subsequent forecasts based on updated data mitigated this initial projection, but still predicted a significant outbreak. A catch-up vaccination campaign took place at the same time as this second forecast and measles cases quickly receded. Of note, case reports used to fit models changed significantly between forecast rounds. Model-based projections of both current population risk and future incidence can help in setting priorities and planning during an outbreak response. A swiftly changing situation on the ground, coupled with data uncertainties and the need to adjust standard analytical approaches to deal with sparse data, presents significant challenges. Appropriate presentation of results as planning scenarios, as well as presentations of uncertainty and two-way communication, is essential to the effective use of modeling studies in outbreak response.

Preventive behaviors by the level of perceived infection sensitivity during the Korea outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015.

PubMed

Lee, Soon Young; Yang, Hee Jeong; Kim, Gawon; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Choi, Bo Youl

2016-01-01

This study was performed to investigate the relationship between community residents' infection sensitivity and their levels of preventive behaviors during the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in Korea. Seven thousands two hundreds eighty one participants from nine areas in Gyeonggi-do including Pyeongtaek, the origin of the outbreak in 2015 agreed to participate in the survey and the data from 6,739 participants were included in the final analysis. The data on the perceived infection sensitivity were subjected to cluster analysis. The levels of stress, reliability/practice of preventive behaviors, hand washing practice and policy credibility during the outbreak period were analyzed for each cluster. Cluster analysis of infection sensitivity due to the MERS outbreak resulted in classification of participants into four groups: the non-sensitive group (14.5%), social concern group (17.4%), neutral group (29.1%), and overall sensitive group (39.0%). A logistic regression analysis found that the overall sensitive group with high sensitivity had higher stress levels (17.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.77 to 23.00), higher reliability on preventive behaviors (5.81; 95% CI, 4.84 to 6.98), higher practice of preventive behaviors (4.53; 95% CI, 3.83 to 5.37) and higher practice of hand washing (2.71; 95% CI, 2.13 to 3.43) during the outbreak period, compared to the non-sensitive group. Infection sensitivity of community residents during the MERS outbreak correlated with gender, age, occupation, and health behaviors. When there is an outbreak in the community, there is need to maintain a certain level of sensitivity while reducing excessive stress, as well as promote the practice of preventive behaviors among local residents. In particular, target groups need to be notified and policies need to be established with a consideration of the socio-demographic characteristics of the community.

Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

PubMed

Thakur, Krishna K; Revie, Crawford W; Hurnik, Daniel; Poljak, Zvonimir; Sanchez, Javier

2015-03-01

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of 24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000 replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal movements and the sharing of trucks within the model indicated that the effect of direct and indirect contact may be nonlinear on outbreak progression. The increase of 44% in epidemic size when indirect contact, via sharing of trucks, was incorporated into the model highlights the importance of proper biosecurity measures in preventing transmission of the PRRS virus. Simulation of between-farm spread of the PRRS virus in swine farms has highlighted the relative importance of direct and indirect contact and provides important insights regarding the possible patterns and extent of spread of the PRRS virus in a completely susceptible population with herd demographics similar to those found in Ontario, Canada. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

2011-12-01

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model.

PubMed

Lega, Joceline; Brown, Heidi E

2016-12-01

Recent events have thrown the spotlight on infectious disease outbreak response. We developed a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. It is based on a surprisingly simple mathematical property of many epidemiological data sets, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, is robust to noise and to small data sets, and runs quickly due to its mathematical simplicity. Using data from historic and ongoing epidemics, we present the model. We also provide modeling considerations that justify this approach and discuss its limitations. In the absence of other information or in conjunction with other models, EpiGro may be useful to public health responders. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Western blot (immunoblot) assay of small, round-structured virus associated with an acute gastroenteritis outbreak in Tokyo.

PubMed

Hayashi, Y; Ando, T; Utagawa, E; Sekine, S; Okada, S; Yabuuchi, K; Miki, T; Ohashi, M

1989-08-01

Small, round-structured virus (SRSV) was detected in a stool specimen of a patient during an acute gastroenteritis outbreak in Tokyo and was tentatively named SRSV-9. SRSV-9 was purified by sucrose velocity gradient centrifugation after CsCl density gradient centrifugation. The buoyant density of SRSV-9 appeared to be 1.36 g/ml in CsCl. A Western blot (immunoblot) assay using the biotin-avidin system revealed that SRSV-9 was antigenically related to the Hawaii agent but distinct from the Norwalk agent and contained a single major structural protein with a molecular size of 63.0 +/- 0.6 kilodaltons. The prevalence of SRSV-9 infection in Tokyo was surveyed by the Western blot antibody assay by using a crude virus preparation as the antigen. Seroconversion was observed in 56.5% of the patients involved in the outbreaks from which SRSV was detected by electron microscopy.

[The EHEC O104:H4 outbreak in Germany 2011 - lessons learned?!].

PubMed

Rissland, J; Kielstein, J T; Stark, K; Wichmann-Schauer, H; Stümpel, F; Pulz, M

2013-04-01

The EHEC O104:H4 outbreak 2011 in Germany provided numerous insights into the recognition and control of such epidemic situations. Food-borne outbreaks and their related dynamics may lead to a critical burden of disease and an eventual capacity overload of the medical care system. Possible difficulties in the microbiological diagnostics of new or significantly altered infectious agents may result in a delayed detection of the outbreak as well as the launching of interventional measures. Besides an early notification of the local public health office by the affected institutions, in which a complete electronic procedure and additional sentinel or surveillance instruments (e. g., in emergency departments of hospitals) may be of great help, an interdisciplinary cooperation of the local public health and food safety agencies is the key to an effective outbreak control. Corresponding organizations on the state and federal level should support the investigation process by microbiological diagnostics and advanced epidemiological analysis as well as examination of the food chains. Finally, successful crisis communication relies on "speaking with one voice" (not necessarily one person). Immediate, transparent, appropriate and honest information of the general public concerning the reasons, consequences and (counter-) measures of a crisis are the best means to keep the trust of the population and to counteract the otherwise inevitable speculations. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

O157:H7 and O104:H4 Vero/Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli outbreaks: respective role of cattle and humans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

An enteroaggregative Verotoxin (Vtx)-producing Escherichia coli strain of serotype O104:H4 has recently been associated with an outbreak of haemolytic-uremic syndrome and bloody diarrhoea in humans mainly in Germany, but also in 14 other European countries, USA and Canada. This O104:H4 E. coli strain has often been described as an enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), i.e. a Vtx-producing E. coli with attaching and effacing properties. Although both EHEC and the German O104:H4 E. coli strains indeed produce Vtx, they nevertheless differ in several other virulence traits, as well as in epidemiological characteristics. For instance, the primary sources and vehicles of typical EHEC infections in humans are ruminants, whereas no animal reservoir has been identified for enteroaggregative E. coli (EAggEC). The present article is introduced by a brief overview of the main characteristics of Vtx-producing E. coli and EAggEC. Thereafter, the O104:H4 E. coli outbreak is compared to typical EHEC outbreaks and the virulence factors and host specificity of EHEC and EAggEC are discussed. Finally, a renewed nomenclature of Vtx-producing E. coli is proposed to avoid more confusion in communication during future outbreaks and to replace the acronym EHEC that only refers to a clinical condition. PMID:22330148

Prevalence of avian influenza virus in wild birds before and after the HPAI H5N8 outbreak in 2014 in South Korea.

PubMed

Shin, Jeong-Hwa; Woo, Chanjin; Wang, Seung-Jun; Jeong, Jipseol; An, In-Jung; Hwang, Jong-Kyung; Jo, Seong-Deok; Yu, Seung Do; Choi, Kyunghee; Chung, Hyen-Mi; Suh, Jae-Hwa; Kim, Seol-Hee

2015-07-01

Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus outbreaks have occurred five times in Korea, with four HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and one HPAI H5N8 outbreak. Migratory birds have been suggested to be the first source of HPAI in Korea. Here, we surveyed migratory wild birds for the presence of AI and compared regional AI prevalence in wild birds from September 2012 to April 2014 for birds having migratory pathways in South Korea. Finally, we investigated the prevalence of AI in migratory birds before and after HPAI H5N8 outbreaks. Overall, we captured 1617 migratory wild birds, while 18,817 feces samples and 74 dead birds were collected from major wild bird habitats. A total of 21 HPAI viruses were isolated from dead birds, and 86 low pathogenic AI (LPAI) viruses were isolated from captured birds and from feces samples. Spatiotemporal distribution analysis revealed that AI viruses were spread southward until December, but tended to shift north after January, consistent with the movement of migratory birds in South Korea. Furthermore, we found that LPAI virus prevalences within wild birds were notably higher in 2013-2014 than the previous prevalence during the northward migration season. The data from our study demonstrate the importance of the surveillance of AI in wild birds. Future studies including in-depth genetic analysis in combination with evaluation of the movement and ecology of migratory birds might help us to bridge the gaps in our knowledge and better explain, predict, and ultimately prevent future HPAI outbreaks.

A methodological framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems: a case study of England.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Morbey, Roger A; Elliot, Alex J; Pebody, Richard; Smith, Gillian E

2018-04-24

Syndromic surveillance complements traditional public health surveillance by collecting and analysing health indicators in near real time. The rationale of syndromic surveillance is that it may detect health threats faster than traditional surveillance systems permitting more timely, and hence potentially more effective public health action. The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance largely relies on the methods used to detect aberrations. Very few studies have evaluated the performance of syndromic surveillance systems and consequently little is known about the types of events that such systems can and cannot detect. We introduce a framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems that can be used in any setting based upon the use of simulated scenarios. For a range of scenarios this allows the time and probability of detection to be determined and uncertainty is fully incorporated. In addition, we demonstrate how such a framework can model the benefits of increases in the number of centres reporting syndromic data and also determine the minimum size of outbreaks that can or cannot be detected. Here, we demonstrate its utility using simulations of national influenza outbreaks and localised outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Influenza outbreaks are consistently detected with larger outbreaks being detected in a more timely manner. Small cryptosporidiosis outbreaks (<1000 symptomatic individuals) are unlikely to be detected. We also demonstrate the advantages of having multiple syndromic data streams (e.g. emergency attendance data, telephone helpline data, general practice consultation data) as different streams are able to detect different outbreak types with different efficacy (e.g. emergency attendance data are useful for the detection of pandemic influenza but not for outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis). We also highlight that for any one disease, the utility of data streams may vary geographically, and that the detection ability of syndromic surveillance varies seasonally (e.g. an influenza outbreak starting in July is detected sooner than one starting later in the year). We argue that our framework constitutes a useful tool for public health emergency preparedness in multiple settings. The proposed framework allows the exhaustive evaluation of any syndromic surveillance system and constitutes a useful tool for emergency preparedness and response.

Silver nanoparticles: synthesis, properties, toxicology, applications and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Quang Huy; Quy Nguyen, Van; Le, Anh-Tuan

2013-09-01

In recent years the outbreak of re-emerging and emerging infectious diseases has been a significant burden on global economies and public health. The growth of population and urbanization along with poor water supply and environmental hygiene are the main reasons for the increase in outbreak of infectious pathogens. Transmission of infectious pathogens to the community has caused outbreaks of diseases such as influenza (A/H5N1), diarrhea (Escherichia coli), cholera (Vibrio cholera), etc throughout the world. The comprehensive treatments of environments containing infectious pathogens using advanced disinfectant nanomaterials have been proposed for prevention of the outbreaks. Among these nanomaterials, silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) with unique properties of high antimicrobial activity have attracted much interest from scientists and technologists to develop nanosilver-based disinfectant products. This article aims to review the synthesis routes and antimicrobial effects of Ag-NPs against various pathogens including bacteria, fungi and virus. Toxicology considerations of Ag-NPs to humans and ecology are discussed in detail. Some current applications of Ag-NPs in water-, air- and surface- disinfection are described. Finally, future prospects of Ag-NPs for treatment and prevention of currently emerging infections are discussed.

Dynamical behavior of susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model on weighted networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhang, Fei

2018-02-01

We study susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model in weighted, regular, and random complex networks. We institute a pairwise-type mathematical model with a general transmission rate to evaluate the influence of the link-weight distribution on the spreading process. Furthermore, we develop a dimensionality reduction approach to derive the condition for the contagion outbreak. Finally, we analyze the influence of the heterogeneity of weight distribution on the outbreak condition for the scenario with a linear transmission rate. Our theoretical analysis is in agreement with stochastic simulations, showing that the heterogeneity of link-weight distribution can have a significant effect on the epidemic dynamics.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Massive outbreak of viral gastroenteritis associated with consumption of municipal drinking water in a European capital city.

PubMed

Werber, D; Lausević, D; Mugosa, B; Vratnica, Z; Ivanović-Nikolić, L; Zizić, L; Alexandre-Bird, A; Fiore, L; Ruggeri, F M; Di Bartolo, I; Battistone, A; Gassilloud, B; Perelle, S; Nitzan Kaluski, D; Kivi, M; Andraghetti, R; Pollock, K G J

2009-12-01

On 24 August 2008, an outbreak alert regarding cases of acute gastroenteritis in Podgorica triggered investigations to guide control measures. From 23 August to 7 September, 1699 cases were reported in Podgorica (population 136 000) and we estimated the total size of the outbreak to be 10 000-15 000 corresponding to an attack rate of approximately 10%. We conducted an age- and neighbourhood-matched case-control study, microbiologically analysed faecal and municipal water samples and assessed the water distribution system. All cases (83/83) and 90% (80/90) [corrected] of controls drank unboiled chlorinated municipal water [matched odds ratio (mOR) 11.2, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6-infinity]. Consumption of bottled water was inversely associated with illness (mOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.8). Analyses of faecal samples identified six norovirus genotypes (21/38 samples) and occasionally other viruses. Multiple defects in the water distribution system were noted. These results suggest that the outbreak was caused by faecally contaminated municipal water. It is unusual to have such a large outbreak in a European city especially when the municipal water supply is chlorinated. Therefore, it is important to establish effective multiple-barrier water-treatment systems whenever possible, but even with an established chlorinated supply, sustained vigilance is central to public health.

Monoclonal outbreak of catheter-related bacteraemia by Ralstonia mannitolilytica on two haemato-oncology wards.

PubMed

Gröbner, Sabine; Heeg, Peter; Autenrieth, Ingo B; Schulte, Berit

2007-12-01

Ralstonia mannitolilytica is a non-fermentative, gram-negative bacterium isolated infrequently from clinical samples. However, within a period of 11 weeks five inpatients of the tertiary care hospital of the University of Tübingen developed clinical signs of infection and R. mannitolilytica was cultivated from blood samples of all patients suggesting an outbreak. Blood cultures and one catheter tip were analysed by standard microbiological procedures. Genetic relatedness of the isolates was investigated by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. To ascertain the possible source of the outbreak, environmental sampling and challenge-recovery experiments to test filters used for multi-dose solution bottles were performed. In the present study a monoclonal outbreak with R. mannitolilytica causing catheter-related infection of five haematological patients is reported. Underlying severe diseases with consecutive immunosuppression, permanent indwelling intravenous devices, multiple intravenous applications, and chemotherapy were possible risk factors promoting the infection. Challenge-recovery experiments revealed that R. mannitolilytica to a high extent even passed through Mini-spike Plus filters of pore size 0.2 microm. Although the source of the outbreak could not be identified, it is possible that solutions given intravenously were contaminated. Since R. mannitolilytica had never been isolated in our laboratory before and environmental testings performed were negative, it cannot be excluded that commercial products like drugs, saline solutions or infusion systems (filters) were contaminated.

Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience

PubMed Central

Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M.; Fraser, Christophe; Jombart, Thibaut; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mills, Harriet L.

2017-01-01

Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’. PMID:28396480

Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience.

PubMed

Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mills, Harriet L; Blake, Isobel M

2017-05-26

Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

Update: mumps outbreak - New York and New Jersey, June 2009-January 2010.

PubMed

2010-02-12

State and local health departments, in collaboration with CDC, continue to investigate a mumps outbreak that began in New York in June 2009. The index case occurred in a boy aged 11 years who had returned on June 17 from a trip to the United Kingdom, where approximately 7,400 reports of laboratory-confirmed mumps were received by the Health Protection Agency in 2009. He then attended a New York summer camp for tradition-observant Jewish boys, where he became symptomatic on June 28. Subsequently, other camp attendees and a staff member were reported to have mumps, and transmission continued in multiple locations when the camp attendees returned home. As of January 29, 2010, a total of 1,521 cases had been reported, with onset dates from June 28, 2009, through January 29, 2010, a substantial increase from the 179 cases reported as of October 30, 2009. The outbreak has remained confined primarily to the tradition-observant Jewish community, with <3% of cases occurring among persons outside the community. The largest percentage of cases (61%) has occurred among persons aged 7-18 years, and 76% of the patients are male. Among the patients for whom vaccination status was reported, 88% had received at least 1 dose of mumps-containing vaccine, and 75% had received 2 doses. This is the largest mumps outbreak that has occurred in the United States since 2006. Although mumps vaccination alone was not sufficient to prevent this outbreak, maintaining high measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage remains the most effective way to prevent outbreaks and limit their size when they occur.

Effects of individual popularity on information spreading in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Li, Ruiqi; Shu, Panpan; Wang, Wei; Gao, Hui; Cai, Shimin

2018-01-01

In real world, human activities often exhibit preferential selection mechanism based on the popularity of individuals. However, this mechanism is seldom taken into account by previous studies about spreading dynamics on networks. Thus in this work, an information spreading model is proposed by considering the preferential selection based on individuals' current popularity, which is defined as the number of individuals' cumulative contacts with informed neighbors. A mean-field theory is developed to analyze the spreading model. Through systematically studying the information spreading dynamics on uncorrelated configuration networks as well as real-world networks, we find that the popularity preference has great impacts on the information spreading. On the one hand, the information spreading is facilitated, i.e., a larger final prevalence of information and a smaller outbreak threshold, if nodes with low popularity are preferentially selected. In this situation, the effective contacts between informed nodes and susceptible nodes are increased, and nodes almost have uniform probabilities of obtaining the information. On the other hand, if nodes with high popularity are preferentially selected, the final prevalence of information is reduced, the outbreak threshold is increased, and even the information cannot outbreak. In addition, the heterogeneity of the degree distribution and the structure of real-world networks do not qualitatively affect the results. Our research can provide some theoretical supports for the promotion of spreading such as information, health related behaviors, and new products, etc.

Shigella Phages Isolated during a Dysentery Outbreak Reveal Uncommon Structures and Broad Species Diversity.

PubMed

Doore, Sarah M; Schrad, Jason R; Dean, William F; Dover, John A; Parent, Kristin N

2018-04-15

In 2016, Michigan experienced the largest outbreak of shigellosis, a type of bacillary dysentery caused by Shigella spp., since 1988. Following this outbreak, we isolated 16 novel Shigella -infecting bacteriophages (viruses that infect bacteria) from environmental water sources. Most well-known bacteriophages infect the common laboratory species Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica , and these phages have built the foundation of molecular and bacteriophage biology. Until now, comparatively few bacteriophages were known to infect Shigella spp., which are close relatives of E. coli We present a comprehensive analysis of these phages' host ranges, genomes, and structures, revealing genome sizes and capsid properties that are shared by very few previously described phages. After sequencing, a majority of the Shigella phages were found to have genomes of an uncommon size, shared by only 2% of all reported phage genomes. To investigate the structural implications of this unusual genome size, we used cryo-electron microscopy to resolve their capsid structures. We determined that these bacteriophage capsids have similarly uncommon geometry. Only two other viruses with this capsid structure have been described. Since most well-known bacteriophages infect Escherichia or Salmonella , our understanding of bacteriophages has been limited to a subset of well-described systems. Continuing to isolate phages using nontraditional strains of bacteria can fill gaps that currently exist in bacteriophage biology. In addition, the prevalence of Shigella phages during a shigellosis outbreak may suggest a potential impact of human health epidemics on local microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Shigella spp. bacteria are causative agents of dysentery and affect more than 164 million people worldwide every year. Despite the need to combat antibiotic-resistant Shigella strains, relatively few Shigella -infecting bacteriophages have been described. By specifically looking for Shigella -infecting phages, this work has identified new isolates that (i) may be useful to combat Shigella infections and (ii) fill gaps in our knowledge of bacteriophage biology. The rare qualities of these new isolates emphasize the importance of isolating phages on "nontraditional" laboratory strains of bacteria to more fully understand both the basic biology and diversity of bacteriophages. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Efficient detection of contagious outbreaks in massive metropolitan encounter networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel

2014-01-01

Physical contact remains difficult to trace in large metropolitan networks, though it is a key vehicle for the transmission of contagious outbreaks. Co-presence encounters during daily transit use provide us with a city-scale time-resolved physical contact network, consisting of 1 billion contacts among 3 million transit users. Here, we study the advantage that knowledge of such co-presence structures may provide for early detection of contagious outbreaks. We first examine the “friend sensor” scheme - a simple, but universal strategy requiring only local information - and demonstrate that it provides significant early detection of simulated outbreaks. Taking advantage of the full network structure, we then identify advanced “global sensor sets”, obtaining substantial early warning times savings over the friends sensor scheme. Individuals with highest number of encounters are the most efficient sensors, with performance comparable to individuals with the highest travel frequency, exploratory behavior and structural centrality. An efficiency balance emerges when testing the dependency on sensor size and evaluating sensor reliability; we find that substantial and reliable lead-time could be attained by monitoring only 0.01% of the population with the highest degree. PMID:24903017

A WATERBORNE OUTBREAK OF NORWALK-LIKE VIRUS AMONG SNOWMOBILERS - WYOMING, 2001. (R826837)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

PFIESTERIA SCIENCE PRIOR TO THE CHESAPEAKE OUTBREAKS, AND AN ABBREVIATED EPILOGUE. (R825551)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Quantifying Transmission of Highly Pathogenic and Low Pathogenicity H7N1 Avian Influenza in Turkeys

PubMed Central

Saenz, Roberto A.; Essen, Steve C.; Brookes, Sharon M.; Iqbal, Munir; Wood, James L. N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; McCauley, John W.; Brown, Ian H.; Gog, Julia R.

2012-01-01

Outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry can be devastating, yet many of the basic epidemiological parameters have not been accurately characterised. In 1999–2000 in Northern Italy, outbreaks of H7N1 low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAI) were followed by the emergence of H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI). This study investigates the transmission dynamics in turkeys of representative HPAI and LPAI H7N1 virus strains from this outbreak in an experimental setting, allowing direct comparison of the two strains. The fitted transmission rates for the two strains are similar: 2.04 (1.5–2.7) per day for HPAI, 2.01 (1.6–2.5) per day for LPAI. However, the mean infectious period is far shorter for HPAI (1.47 (1.3–1.7) days) than for LPAI (7.65 (7.0–8.3) days), due to the rapid death of infected turkeys. Hence the basic reproductive ratio, is significantly lower for HPAI (3.01 (2.2–4.0)) than for LPAI (15.3 (11.8–19.7)). The comparison of transmission rates and are critically important in relation to understanding how HPAI might emerge from LPAI. Two competing hypotheses for how transmission rates vary with population size are tested by fitting competing models to experiments with differing numbers of turkeys. A model with frequency-dependent transmission gives a significantly better fit to experimental data than density-dependent transmission. This has important implications for extrapolating experimental results from relatively small numbers of birds to the commercial poultry flock size, and for how control, including vaccination, might scale with flock size. PMID:23028760

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

PubMed

Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor; Tatem, Andrew J; Baele, Guy; Faria, Nuno R; Park, Daniel J; Ladner, Jason T; Arias, Armando; Asogun, Danny; Bielejec, Filip; Caddy, Sarah L; Cotten, Matthew; D'Ambrozio, Jonathan; Dellicour, Simon; Di Caro, Antonino; Diclaro, Joseph W; Duraffour, Sophie; Elmore, Michael J; Fakoli, Lawrence S; Faye, Ousmane; Gilbert, Merle L; Gevao, Sahr M; Gire, Stephen; Gladden-Young, Adrianne; Gnirke, Andreas; Goba, Augustine; Grant, Donald S; Haagmans, Bart L; Hiscox, Julian A; Jah, Umaru; Kugelman, Jeffrey R; Liu, Di; Lu, Jia; Malboeuf, Christine M; Mate, Suzanne; Matthews, David A; Matranga, Christian B; Meredith, Luke W; Qu, James; Quick, Joshua; Pas, Suzan D; Phan, My V T; Pollakis, Georgios; Reusken, Chantal B; Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano; Schaffner, Stephen F; Schieffelin, John S; Sealfon, Rachel S; Simon-Loriere, Etienne; Smits, Saskia L; Stoecker, Kilian; Thorne, Lucy; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Vandi, Mohamed A; Watson, Simon J; West, Kendra; Whitmer, Shannon; Wiley, Michael R; Winnicki, Sarah M; Wohl, Shirlee; Wölfel, Roman; Yozwiak, Nathan L; Andersen, Kristian G; Blyden, Sylvia O; Bolay, Fatorma; Carroll, Miles W; Dahn, Bernice; Diallo, Boubacar; Formenty, Pierre; Fraser, Christophe; Gao, George F; Garry, Robert F; Goodfellow, Ian; Günther, Stephan; Happi, Christian T; Holmes, Edward C; Kargbo, Brima; Keïta, Sakoba; Kellam, Paul; Koopmans, Marion P G; Kuhn, Jens H; Loman, Nicholas J; Magassouba, N'Faly; Naidoo, Dhamari; Nichol, Stuart T; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Palacios, Gustavo; Pybus, Oliver G; Sabeti, Pardis C; Sall, Amadou; Ströher, Ute; Wurie, Isatta; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew

2017-04-20

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

Heterogeneity in multiple transmission pathways: modelling the spread of cholera and other waterborne disease in networks with a common water source.

PubMed

Robertson, Suzanne L; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Tien, Joseph H

2013-01-01

Many factors influencing disease transmission vary throughout and across populations. For diseases spread through multiple transmission pathways, sources of variation may affect each transmission pathway differently. In this paper we consider a disease that can be spread via direct and indirect transmission, such as the waterborne disease cholera. Specifically, we consider a system of multiple patches with direct transmission occurring entirely within patch and indirect transmission via a single shared water source. We investigate the effect of heterogeneity in dual transmission pathways on the spread of the disease. We first present a 2-patch model for which we examine the effect of variation in each pathway separately and propose a measure of heterogeneity that incorporates both transmission mechanisms and is predictive of R(0). We also explore how heterogeneity affects the final outbreak size and the efficacy of intervention measures. We conclude by extending several results to a more general n-patch setting.

Epidemiological analysis of a cluster within the outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli serotype O104:H4 in Northern Germany, 2011.

PubMed

Scharlach, Martina; Diercke, Michaela; Dreesman, Johannes; Jahn, Nicola; Krieck, Manuela; Beyrer, Konrad; Claußen, Katja; Pulz, Matthias; Floride, Regina

2013-06-01

In May 2011 one of the worldwide largest outbreaks of haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) and bloody diarrhoea caused by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotype O104:H4 occurred in Germany. One of the most affected federal states was Lower Saxony. We present the investigation of a cluster of STEC and HUS cases within this outbreak by means of a retrospective cohort study. After a 70th birthday celebration which took place on 7th of May 2011 among 72 attendants seven confirmed cases and four probable cases were identified, two of them developed HUS. Median incubation period was 10 days. Only 35 persons (48.6%) definitely answered the question whether they had eaten the sprouts that were used for garnishing the salad. Univariable analysis revealed different food items, depending on the case definition, with Odds Ratio (OR)>1 indicating an association with STEC infection, but multivariable logistic regression showed no increased risk for STEC infection for any food item and any case definition. Sprouts as the source for the infection had to be assumed based on the results of a tracing back of the delivery ways from the catering company to the sprouts producer who was finally identified as the source of the entire German outbreak. In this large outbreak several case-control studies failed to identify the source of infection. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Virus Excretion from Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier Cattle and Their Potential Role in Causing New Outbreaks.

PubMed

Parthiban, Aravindh Babu R; Mahapatra, Mana; Gubbins, Simon; Parida, Satya

2015-01-01

The role of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) carrier cattle in causing new outbreaks is still a matter of debate and it is important to find out these carrier animals by post-outbreak serosurveillance to declare freedom from FMDV infection. In this study we explore the differences in viral shedding between carrier and non-carrier animals, quantify the transmission rate of FMDV infection from carriers to susceptible animals and identify potential viral determinants of viral persistence. We collected nasal and saliva samples from 32 vaccinated and 7 unvaccinated FMDV carrier cattle and 48 vaccinated and 13 unvaccinated non-carrier cattle (total n=100) during the acute phase of infection (up to 28 days post-challenge) and then from limited number of animals up to a maximum 168 days post-challenge. We demonstrate that unvaccinated cattle excrete significantly higher levels of virus for longer periods compared with vaccinated cattle and this is independent of whether or not they subsequently become carriers. By introducing naïve cattle in to the FMDV carrier population we show the risk of new outbreaks is clearly very low in controlled conditions, although there could still be a potential threat of these carrier animals causing new outbreaks in the field situation. Finally, we compared the complete genome sequences of viruses from carrier cattle with the challenge virus and found no evidence for viral determinants of the carrier state.

Potential impact of reactive vaccination in controlling cholera outbreaks: an exploratory analysis using a Zimbabwean experience.

PubMed

Kim, Sun-Young; Choi, Yeongchull; Mason, Peter R; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Goldie, Sue J

2011-09-05

To contain ongoing cholera outbreaks, the World Health Organization has suggested that reactive vaccination should be considered in addition to its previous control measures. To explore the potential impact of a hypothetical reactive oral cholera vaccination using the example of the recent large-scale cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe. This was a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis calculating the health and economic burden of the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe with and without reactive vaccination. The primary outcome measure was incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Under the base-case assumptions (assuming 50% coverage among individuals aged ≥2 years), reactive vaccination could have averted 1 320 deaths and 23 650 DALYs. Considering herd immunity, the corresponding values would have been 2 920 deaths and 52 360 DALYs averted. The total vaccination costs would have been ~$74 million and ~$21 million, respectively, with per-dose vaccine price of US$5 and $1. The incremental costs per DALY averted of reactive vaccination were $2 770 and $370, respectively, for vaccine price set at $5 and $1. Assuming herd immunity, the corresponding cost was $980 with vaccine price of $5, and the programme was cost-saving with a vaccine price of $1. Results were most sensitive to case-fatality rate, per-dose vaccine price, and the size of the outbreak. Reactive vaccination has the potential to be a cost-effective measure to contain cholera outbreaks in countries at high risk. However, the feasibility of implementation should be further evaluated, and caution is warranted in extrapolating the findings to different settings in the absence of other in-depth studies.

Identification of Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia coli outbreak isolates by a novel data analysis tool after matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Christner, Martin; Dressler, Dirk; Andrian, Mark; Reule, Claudia; Petrini, Orlando

2017-01-01

The fast and reliable characterization of bacterial and fungal pathogens plays an important role in infectious disease control and tracking of outbreak agents. DNA based methods are the gold standard for epidemiological investigations, but they are still comparatively expensive and time-consuming. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) is a fast, reliable and cost-effective technique now routinely used to identify clinically relevant human pathogens. It has been used for subspecies differentiation and typing, but its use for epidemiological tasks, e. g. for outbreak investigations, is often hampered by the complexity of data analysis. We have analysed publicly available MALDI-TOF mass spectra from a large outbreak of Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia coli in northern Germany using a general purpose software tool for the analysis of complex biological data. The software was challenged with depauperate spectra and reduced learning group sizes to mimic poor spectrum quality and scarcity of reference spectra at the onset of an outbreak. With high quality formic acid extraction spectra, the software's built in classifier accurately identified outbreak related strains using as few as 10 reference spectra (99.8% sensitivity, 98.0% specificity). Selective variation of processing parameters showed impaired marker peak detection and reduced classification accuracy in samples with high background noise or artificially reduced peak counts. However, the software consistently identified mass signals suitable for a highly reliable marker peak based classification approach (100% sensitivity, 99.5% specificity) even from low quality direct deposition spectra. The study demonstrates that general purpose data analysis tools can effectively be used for the analysis of bacterial mass spectra.

Waning Immunity Is Associated with Periodic Large Outbreaks of Mumps: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Scottish Data

PubMed Central

Hamami, Dalila; Cameron, Ross; Pollock, Kevin G.; Shankland, Carron

2017-01-01

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005, and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine more than 20 years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modeling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004–2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004–2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake. PMID:28487657

Waning Immunity Is Associated with Periodic Large Outbreaks of Mumps: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Scottish Data.

PubMed

Hamami, Dalila; Cameron, Ross; Pollock, Kevin G; Shankland, Carron

2017-01-01

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005, and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine more than 20 years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modeling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004-2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004-2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake.

Synoptic climatology, and intrahemispheric associations, of cold air mesocyclones in the Australasian sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleton, Andrew M.; Song, Yudong

1997-06-01

Satellite IR images for seven months in 1992 are interpreted for cold air mesoscale cyclones (mesocyclones) occurring in the Australasian sector (˜70°E-150°W) of the Southern Ocean. Time-averaged (monthly, seasonal) distributions of mesocyclogenesis, mesocyclolysis, and tracks of movement, along with statistical summaries of mesocyclone attributes (e.g., cloud vortex size, speeds of movement), are presented and discussed in the context of the larger-scale atmospheric circulation. Maximum frequencies of mesocyclones occurred in the transitional months of April and October 1992, with a secondary peak in July. Statistically significant differences in mesocyclone track length between months appear related dominantly to changes in speed of the background flow, associated with the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of tropospheric pressure/height. The associations of mesocyclone "outbreaks" with composite anomaly fields of pressure and height are identified for three subareas of the Australasian sector suggested by the analysis of mesocyclone spatial patterns. Outbreaks occur in the strong southerly geostrophic airflow located between pressure and height anomalies that are negative (positive) to the eastward (westward). When outbreaks occurred in the New Zealand subarea in 1992, a similarly strong couplet of pressure/height anomalies developed in the southern South America/Antarctic Peninsula sector but not when outbreaks occurred south of Australia. The mesocyclone remote association that is suggested is evaluated by using polar orbiter IR imagery for the southeastern Pacific region. Frequencies of mesocyclones increase (decrease) west of Chile but decrease (increase) through Drake Passage when mesocyclone outbreaks occur near New Zealand (south of Australia). These long distance associations of mesocyclone outbreaks are consistent with the connectivity of the baroclinic waves and might prove useful in the development of techniques to forecast mesocyclones over the Southern Ocean.

Whole genome sequencing identifies circulating Beijing-lineage Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in Guatemala and an associated urban outbreak

PubMed Central

Saelens, Joseph W.; Lau-Bonilla, Dalia; Moller, Anneliese; Medina, Narda; Guzmán, Brenda; Calderón, Maylena; Herrera, Raúl; Sisk, Dana M.; Xet-Mull, Ana M.; Stout, Jason E.; Arathoon, Eduardo; Samayoa, Blanca; Tobin, David M.

2015-01-01

Summary Limited data are available regarding the molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains circulating in Guatemala. Beijing-lineage Mtb strains have gained prevalence worldwide and are associated with increased virulence and drug resistance, but there have been only a few cases reported in Central America. Here we report the first whole genome sequencing of Central American Beijing-lineage strains of Mtb. We find that multiple Beijing-lineage strains, derived from independent founding events, are currently circulating in Guatemala, but overall still represent a relatively small proportion of disease burden. Finally, we identify a specific Beijing-lineage outbreak centered on a poor neighborhood in Guatemala City. PMID:26542222

Description of an oral Chagas disease outbreak in Venezuela, including a vertically transmitted case.

PubMed

Noya, Belkisyolé Alarcón de; Pérez-Chacón, Gladymar; Díaz-Bello, Zoraida; Dickson, Sonia; Muñoz-Calderón, Arturo; Hernández, Carlos; Pérez, Yadira; Mauriello, Luciano; Moronta, Eyleen

2017-08-01

We describe the eleventh major outbreak of foodborne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in urban Venezuela, including evidence for vertical transmission from the index case to her fetus. After confirming fetal death at 24 weeks of gestation, pregnancy interruption was performed. On direct examination of the amniotic fluid, trypomastigotes were detected. T. cruzi specific-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) also proved positive when examining autopsied fetal organs. Finally, microscopic fetal heart examination revealed amastigote nests. Acute orally transmitted Chagas disease can be life threatening or even fatal for pregnant women and unborn fetuses owing to vertical transmission. There is therefore an urgent need to improve national epidemiologic control measures.

How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS).

PubMed

Wang, Ruiping; Jiang, Yonggen; Michael, Engelgau; Zhao, Genming

2017-06-12

China Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2005. The CIDARS was used to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and aid in the early warning of outbreak. The CIDARS has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the CDC at all levels in China. Early warning threshold is crucial for outbreak detection in the CIDARS, but CDCs at all level are currently using thresholds recommended by the China CDC, and these recommended thresholds have recognized limitations. Our study therefore seeks to explore an operational method to select the proper early warning threshold according to the epidemic features of local infectious diseases. The data used in this study were extracted from the web-based Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS), and data for infectious disease cases were organized by calendar week (1-52) and year (2009-2015) in Excel format; Px was calculated using a percentile-based moving window (moving window [5 week*5 year], x), where x represents one of 12 centiles (0.40, 0.45, 0.50….0.95). Outbreak signals for the 12 Px were calculated using the moving percentile method (MPM) based on data from the CIDARS. When the outbreak signals generated by the 'mean + 2SD' gold standard were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week during the year of 2014, this Px was then defined as the proper threshold for the infectious disease. Finally, the performance of new selected thresholds for each infectious disease was evaluated by simulated outbreak signals based on 2015 data. Six infectious diseases were selected in this study (chickenpox, mumps, hand foot and mouth diseases (HFMD), scarlet fever, influenza and rubella). Proper thresholds for chickenpox (P75), mumps (P80), influenza (P75), rubella (P45), HFMD (P75), and scarlet fever (P80) were identified. The selected proper thresholds for these 6 infectious diseases could detect almost all simulated outbreaks within a shorter time period compared to thresholds recommended by the China CDC. It is beneficial to select the proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease aberrations based on characteristics and epidemic features of local diseases in the CIDARS.

Should health organizations use web 2.0 media in times of an infectious disease crisis? An in-depth qualitative study of citizens' information behavior during an EHEC outbreak.

PubMed

van Velsen, Lex; van Gemert-Pijnen, Julia E W C; Beaujean, Desirée J M A; Wentzel, Jobke; van Steenbergen, Jim E

2012-12-20

Web 2.0 media (eg, Facebook, Wikipedia) are considered very valuable for communicating with citizens in times of crisis. However, in the case of infectious disease outbreaks, their value has not been determined empirically. In order to be able to take full advantage of Web 2.0 media in such a situation, the link between these media, citizens' information behavior, and citizens' information needs has to be investigated. The goal of our study was to assess citizens' Web 2.0 media use during an infectious disease outbreak and to determine which Web 2.0 medium is used for which goal. With this information, we wanted to formulate recommendations for health organizations that consider using Web 2.0 media as part of their communication strategy during an infectious disease outbreak. A total of 18 student participants kept an information diary for 4 weeks during the 2011 enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) outbreak in Germany. Of them, 9 lived at the epicenter of the outbreak and 9 of them at some distance. The diaries were supplemented by a qualitative pre-survey (demographics) and postsurvey (questioning their satisfaction with information provision during the outbreak). The Internet appeared to be the most popular medium for passively receiving EHEC-related information, with news websites and websites of newspapers as the most consulted sources. Twitter was used for receiving information to a small degree, while Facebook played virtually no role. Participants indicated that they thought information posted on Twitter or Facebook was not reliable or was out of place. When actively seeking information, online newspapers and wikis were important sources. Several causes for (dis)satisfaction with information provision were uncovered: source credibility, contradicting messages, and a need for closure. During an infectious disease outbreak, our small sample of students did not see social media (like Facebook and Twitter) as suitable or reliable sources for communicating information, but primarily viewed them as a tool for communicating with friends. Wikis, however, did fill several information needs, especially when citizens are actively searching for information. For many, source credibility is an important asset of information usefulness. Finally, we provide several general recommendations for communicating with citizens during an infectious disease outbreak.

Should Health Organizations Use Web 2.0 Media in Times of an Infectious Disease Crisis? An In-depth Qualitative Study of Citizens’ Information Behavior During an EHEC Outbreak

PubMed Central

van Gemert-Pijnen, Julia E.W.C; Beaujean, Desirée J.M.A; Wentzel, Jobke; van Steenbergen, Jim E

2012-01-01

Background Web 2.0 media (eg, Facebook, Wikipedia) are considered very valuable for communicating with citizens in times of crisis. However, in the case of infectious disease outbreaks, their value has not been determined empirically. In order to be able to take full advantage of Web 2.0 media in such a situation, the link between these media, citizens’ information behavior, and citizens’ information needs has to be investigated. Objective The goal of our study was to assess citizens’ Web 2.0 media use during an infectious disease outbreak and to determine which Web 2.0 medium is used for which goal. With this information, we wanted to formulate recommendations for health organizations that consider using Web 2.0 media as part of their communication strategy during an infectious disease outbreak. Methods A total of 18 student participants kept an information diary for 4 weeks during the 2011 enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) outbreak in Germany. Of them, 9 lived at the epicenter of the outbreak and 9 of them at some distance. The diaries were supplemented by a qualitative pre-survey (demographics) and postsurvey (questioning their satisfaction with information provision during the outbreak). Results The Internet appeared to be the most popular medium for passively receiving EHEC-related information, with news websites and websites of newspapers as the most consulted sources. Twitter was used for receiving information to a small degree, while Facebook played virtually no role. Participants indicated that they thought information posted on Twitter or Facebook was not reliable or was out of place. When actively seeking information, online newspapers and wikis were important sources. Several causes for (dis)satisfaction with information provision were uncovered: source credibility, contradicting messages, and a need for closure. Conclusions During an infectious disease outbreak, our small sample of students did not see social media (like Facebook and Twitter) as suitable or reliable sources for communicating information, but primarily viewed them as a tool for communicating with friends. Wikis, however, did fill several information needs, especially when citizens are actively searching for information. For many, source credibility is an important asset of information usefulness. Finally, we provide several general recommendations for communicating with citizens during an infectious disease outbreak. PMID:23257066

Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

PubMed Central

Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

2011-01-01

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

SIS and SIR epidemic models under virtual dispersal

PubMed Central

Bichara, Derdei; Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Horan, Richard; Perrings, Charles

2015-01-01

We develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure contact rates that are used in the traditional multi-group epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing. We apply this approach to a general n-patch SIS model whose basic reproduction number R0 is computed as a function of a patch residence-times matrix ℙ. Our analysis implies that the resulting n-patch SIS model has robust dynamics when patches are strongly connected: there is a unique globally stable endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1 while the disease free equilibrium is globally stable when R0 ≤ 1. Our further analysis indicates that the dispersal behavior described by the residence-times matrix ℙ has profound effects on the disease dynamics at the single patch level with consequences that proper dispersal behavior along with the local environmental risk can either promote or eliminate the endemic in particular patches. Our work highlights the impact of residence times matrix if the patches are not strongly connected. Our framework can be generalized in other endemic and disease outbreak models. As an illustration, we apply our framework to a two-patch SIR single outbreak epidemic model where the process of disease invasion is connected to the final epidemic size relationship. We also explore the impact of disease prevalence driven decision using a phenomenological modeling approach in order to contrast the role of constant versus state dependent ℙ on disease dynamics. PMID:26489419

Transmission of Equine Influenza Virus during an Outbreak Is Characterized by Frequent Mixed Infections and Loose Transmission Bottlenecks

PubMed Central

Hughes, Joseph; Allen, Richard C.; Baguelin, Marc; Hampson, Katie; Baillie, Gregory J.; Elton, Debra; Newton, J. Richard; Kellam, Paul; Wood, James L. N.; Holmes, Edward C.; Murcia, Pablo R.

2012-01-01

The ability of influenza A viruses (IAVs) to cross species barriers and evade host immunity is a major public health concern. Studies on the phylodynamics of IAVs across different scales – from the individual to the population – are essential for devising effective measures to predict, prevent or contain influenza emergence. Understanding how IAVs spread and evolve during outbreaks is critical for the management of epidemics. Reconstructing the transmission network during a single outbreak by sampling viral genetic data in time and space can generate insights about these processes. Here, we obtained intra-host viral sequence data from horses infected with equine influenza virus (EIV) to reconstruct the spread of EIV during a large outbreak. To this end, we analyzed within-host viral populations from sequences covering 90% of the infected yards. By combining gene sequence analyses with epidemiological data, we inferred a plausible transmission network, in turn enabling the comparison of transmission patterns during the course of the outbreak and revealing important epidemiological features that were not apparent using either approach alone. The EIV populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity, and in many cases we observed distinct viral populations containing a dominant variant and a number of related minor variants that were transmitted between infectious horses. In addition, we found evidence of frequent mixed infections and loose transmission bottlenecks in these naturally occurring populations. These frequent mixed infections likely influence the size of epidemics. PMID:23308065

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zingg, Dana; Häsler, Stephan; Schuepbach-Regula, Gertraud; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Dürr, Salome

2015-01-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution. PMID:26697436

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

PubMed Central

Pigott, David M; Golding, Nick; Mylne, Adrian; Huang, Zhi; Henry, Andrew J; Weiss, Daniel J; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz UG; Smith, David L; Moyes, Catherine L; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Horby, Peter W; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brownstein, John S; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Tatem, Andrew J; Khan, Kamran; Hay, Simon I

2014-01-01

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001 PMID:25201877

Changes in Soldier Nutritional Status and Immune Function During the Ranger Training Course

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-10

Appendix Ill. Finally, the support and encouragement of USARIEM Commander COL Gerald P. Krueger and USAMRDC Research Area III Director COL David D...Glono S, Hierholzer J, Ostrofl S, Groover J, Musher D, Martinez L, Brelman R, and the Pneumococcal Pneumonia Study Group: Pneumococcal pneumonia outbreak

AN OUTBREAK OF HYPERSENSITIVITY PNEUMONITIS AT A METALWORKING PLANT: A LONGITUDINAL ASSESSMENT OF INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS. (R825251)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Emerging and re-emerging viruses in Malaysia, 1997-2007.

PubMed

Tee, Kok Keng; Takebe, Yutaka; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

2009-05-01

Over the past decade, a number of unique zoonotic and non-zoonotic viruses have emerged in Malaysia. Several of these viruses have resulted in significant morbidity and mortality to those affected and they have imposed a tremendous public health and economic burden on the state. Amongst the most devastating was the outbreak of Nipah virus encephalitis in 1998, which resulted in 109 deaths. The culling of more than a million pigs, identified as the amplifying host, ultimately brought the outbreak under control. A year prior to this, and subsequently again in 2000 and 2003, large outbreaks of hand-foot-and-mouth disease due to enterovirus 71, with rare cases of fatal neurological complications, were reported in young children. Three other new viruses - Tioman virus (1999), Pulau virus (1999), and Melaka virus (2006) - whose origins have all been linked to bats, have been added to the growing list of novel viruses being discovered in Malaysia. The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has also been detected in Malaysia with outbreaks in poultry in 2004, 2006, and 2007. Fortunately, no human infections were reported. Finally, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has seen the emergence of an HIV-1 recombinant form (CRF33_01B) in HIV-infected individuals from various risk groups, with evidence of ongoing and rapid expansion.

Outbreaks of Tularemia in a Boreal Forest Region Depends on Mosquito Prevalence

PubMed Central

Rydén, Patrik; Björk, Rafael; Schäfer, Martina L.; Lundström, Jan O.; Petersén, Bodil; Lindblom, Anders; Forsman, Mats; Sjöstedt, Anders

2012-01-01

Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data. Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden. Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks. Conclusions. This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators. PMID:22124130

Surveillance for waterborne disease outbreaks associated with drinking water---United States, 2007--2008.

PubMed

Brunkard, Joan M; Ailes, Elizabeth; Roberts, Virginia A; Hill, Vincent; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Craun, Gunther F; Rajasingham, Anu; Kahler, Amy; Garrison, Laurel; Hicks, Lauri; Carpenter, Joe; Wade, Timothy J; Beach, Michael J; Yoder Msw, Jonathan S

2011-09-23

Since 1971, CDC, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have collaborated on the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) for collecting and reporting data related to occurrences and causes of waterborne disease outbreaks associated with drinking water. This surveillance system is the primary source of data concerning the scope and health effects of waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States. Data presented summarize 48 outbreaks that occurred during January 2007--December 2008 and 70 previously unreported outbreaks. WBDOSS includes data on outbreaks associated with drinking water, recreational water, water not intended for drinking (WNID) (excluding recreational water), and water use of unknown intent (WUI). Public health agencies in the states, U.S. territories, localities, and Freely Associated States are primarily responsible for detecting and investigating outbreaks and reporting them voluntarily to CDC by a standard form. Only data on outbreaks associated with drinking water, WNID (excluding recreational water), and WUI are summarized in this report. Outbreaks associated with recreational water are reported separately. A total of 24 states and Puerto Rico reported 48 outbreaks that occurred during 2007--2008. Of these 48 outbreaks, 36 were associated with drinking water, eight with WNID, and four with WUI. The 36 drinking water--associated outbreaks caused illness among at least 4,128 persons and were linked to three deaths. Etiologic agents were identified in 32 (88.9%) of the 36 drinking water--associated outbreaks; 21 (58.3%) outbreaks were associated with bacteria, five (13.9%) with viruses, three (8.3%) with parasites, one (2.8%) with a chemical, one (2.8%) with both bacteria and viruses, and one (2.8%) with both bacteria and parasites. Four outbreaks (11.1%) had unidentified etiologies. Of the 36 drinking water--associated outbreaks, 22 (61.1%) were outbreaks of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI), 12 (33.3%) were outbreaks of acute respiratory illness (ARI), one (2.8%) was an outbreak associated with skin irritation, and one (2.8%) was an outbreak of hepatitis. All outbreaks of ARI were caused by Legionella spp. A total of 37 deficiencies were identified in the 36 outbreaks associated with drinking water. Of the 37 deficiencies, 22 (59.5%) involved contamination at or in the source water, treatment facility, or distribution system; 13 (35.1%) occurred at points not under the jurisdiction of a water utility; and two (5.4%) had unknown/insufficient deficiency information. Among the 21 outbreaks associated with source water, treatment, or distribution system deficiencies, 13 (61.9%) were associated with untreated ground water, six (28.6%) with treatment deficiencies, one (4.8%) with a distribution system deficiency, and one (4.8%) with both a treatment and a distribution system deficiency. No outbreaks were associated with untreated surface water. Of the 21 outbreaks, 16 (76.2%) occurred in public water systems (drinking water systems under the jurisdiction of EPA regulations and water utility management), and five (23.8%) outbreaks occurred in individual systems (all of which were associated with untreated ground water). Among the 13 outbreaks with deficiencies not under the jurisdiction of a water system, 12 (92.3%) were associated with the growth of Legionella spp. in the drinking water system, and one (7.7%) was associated with a plumbing deficiency. In the two outbreaks with unknown deficiencies, one was associated with a public water supply, and the other was associated with commercially bottled water. The 70 previously unreported outbreaks included 69 Legionella outbreaks during 1973--2000 that were not reportable previously to WBDOSS and one previously unreported outbreak from 2002. More than half of the drinking water--associated outbreaks reported during the 2007--2008 surveillance period were associated with untreated or inadequately treated ground water, indicating that contamination of ground water remains a public health problem. The majority of these outbreaks occurred in public water systems that are subject to EPA's new Ground Water Rule (GWR), which requires the majority of community water systems to complete initial sanitary surveys by 2012. The GWR focuses on identification of deficiencies, protection of wells and springs from contamination, and providing disinfection when necessary to protect against bacterial and viral agents. In addition, several drinking water--associated outbreaks that were related to contaminated ground water appeared to occur in systems that were potentially under the influence of surface water. Future efforts to collect data systematically on contributing factors associated with drinking water outbreaks and deficiencies, including identification of ground water under the direct influence of surface water and the criteria used for their classification, would be useful to better assess risks associated with ground water. During 2007--2008, Legionella was the most frequently reported etiology among drinking water--associated outbreaks, following the pattern observed since it was first included in WBDOSS in 2001. However, six (50%) of the 12 drinking water--associated Legionella outbreaks were reported from one state, highlighting the substantial variance in outbreak detection and reporting across states and territories. The addition of published and CDC-investigated legionellosis outbreaks to the WBDOSS database clarifies that Legionella is not a new public health issue. During 2009, Legionella was added to EPA's Contaminant Candidate List for the first time. CDC and EPA use WBDOSS surveillance data to identify the types of etiologic agents, deficiencies, water systems, and sources associated with waterborne disease outbreaks and to evaluate the adequacy of current technologies and practices for providing safe drinking water. Surveillance data also are used to establish research priorities, which can lead to improved water quality regulation development. Approximately two thirds of the outbreaks associated with untreated ground water reported during the 2007--2008 surveillance period occurred in public water systems. When fully implemented, the GWR that was promulgated in 2006 is expected to result in decreases in ground water outbreaks, similar to the decreases observed in surface water outbreaks after enactment of the Surface Water Treatment Rule in 1974 and its subsequent amendments. One third of drinking water--associated outbreaks occurred in building premise plumbing systems outside the jurisdiction of water utility management and EPA regulations; Legionella spp. accounted for >90% of these outbreaks, indicating that greater attention is needed to reduce the risk for legionellosis in building plumbing systems. Finally, a large communitywide drinking water outbreak occurred in 2008 in a public water system associated with a distribution system deficiency, underscoring the importance of maintaining and upgrading drinking water distribution system infrastructure to provide safe water and protect public health.

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

What do public health officials expect from modelers during a response to an epidemic or outbreak?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Michael

Since 2009, the CDC has participated in emergency responses ranging from small domestic outbreaks involving a few hundred people, to international public health emergencies affecting millions of individuals from around the world. Each response required unique skills from the CDC'S Modeling Task Force to address public health officials' questions and to help them make informed decisions. This presentation will discuss the roll of the Modeling Task Forces in the CDC's Incident Management structure and some of the models used to assist officials in making decisions about the potential size of the public health crisis, how effective interventions could be, and what resources are required.

Disease dynamics during wildlife translocations: disruptions to the host population and potential consequences for transmission in desert tortoise contact networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Walde, Andrew D.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, S.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability of a local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages the translocation may have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts of disease ecology and identifies the conditions that will increase the likelihood of a disease outbreak following translocation. We highlight the importance of susceptibility to infection, population size and population connectivity – a characteristic likely affected by translocation but not often considered in risk assessments – in estimating outbreak risk due to translocation. We then explore these features in a species of conservation concern often translocated in the presence of infectious disease, the Mojave Desert tortoise, and use data from experimental tortoise translocations to detect changes in population connectivity that may influence pathogen transmission. Preliminary analyses comparing contact networks inferred from spatial data at control and translocation plots and infection simulation results through these networks suggest increased outbreak risk following translocation due to dispersal-driven changes in contact frequency and network structure. We outline future research goals to test these concepts and aid managers in designing effective risk assessment and intervention strategies that will improve translocation success.

Surveillance for waterborne disease outbreaks and other health events associated with recreational water --- United States, 2007--2008.

PubMed

Hlavsa, Michele C; Roberts, Virginia A; Anderson, Ayana R; Hill, Vincent R; Kahler, Amy M; Orr, Maureen; Garrison, Laurel E; Hicks, Lauri A; Newton, Anna; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Wade, Timothy J; Beach, Michael J; Yoder, Jonathan S

2011-09-23

Since 1978, CDC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have collaborated on the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) for collecting and reporting data on waterborne disease outbreaks associated with recreational water. This surveillance system is the primary source of data concerning the scope and health effects of waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States. In addition, data are collected on other select recreational water--associated health events, including pool chemical--associated health events and single cases of Vibrio wound infection and primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). Data presented summarize recreational water--associated outbreaks and other health events that occurred during January 2007--December 2008. Previously unreported data on outbreaks that have occurred since 1978 also are presented. The WBDOSS database includes data on outbreaks associated with recreational water, drinking water, water not intended for drinking (excluding recreational water), and water use of unknown intent. Public health agencies in the states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories, and Freely Associated States are primarily responsible for detecting and investigating waterborne disease outbreaks and voluntarily reporting them to CDC using a standard form. Only data on outbreaks associated with recreational water are summarized in this report. Data on other recreational water--associated health events reported to CDC, the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) also are summarized. A total of 134 recreational water--associated outbreaks were reported by 38 states and Puerto Rico for 2007--2008. These outbreaks resulted in at least 13,966 cases. The median outbreak size was 11 cases (range: 2--5,697 cases). A total of 116 (86.6%) outbreaks were associated with treated recreational water (e.g., pools and interactive fountains) and resulted in 13,480 (96.5%) cases. Of the 134 outbreaks, 81 (60.4%) were outbreaks of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI); 24 (17.9%) were outbreaks of dermatologic illnesses, conditions, or symptoms; and 17 (12.7%) were outbreaks of acute respiratory illness. Outbreaks of AGI resulted in 12,477 (89.3%) cases. The etiology was laboratory-confirmed for 105 (78.4%) of the 134 outbreaks. Of the 105 outbreaks with a laboratory-confirmed etiology, 68 (64.8%) were caused by parasites, 22 (21.0%) by bacteria, five (4.8%) by viruses, nine (8.6%) by chemicals or toxins, and one (1.0%) by multiple etiology types. Cryptosporidium was confirmed as the etiologic agent of 60 (44.8%) of 134 outbreaks, resulting in 12,154 (87.0%) cases; 58 (96.7%) of these outbreaks, resulting in a total of 12,137 (99.9%) cases, were associated with treated recreational water. A total of 32 pool chemical--associated health events that occurred in a public or residential setting were reported to WBDOSS by Maryland and Michigan. These events resulted in 48 cases of illness or injury; 26 (81.3%) events could be attributed at least partially to chemical handling errors (e.g., mixing incompatible chemicals). ATSDR's Hazardous Substance Emergency Events Surveillance System received 92 reports of hazardous substance events that occurred at aquatic facilities. More than half of these events (55 [59.8%]) involved injured persons; the most frequently reported primary contributing factor was human error. Estimates based on CPSC's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) data indicate that 4,574 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2,703--6,446) emergency department (ED) visits attributable to pool chemical--associated injuries occurred in 2008; the most frequent diagnosis was poisoning (1,784 ED visits [95% CI: 585--2,984]). NEISS data indicate that pool chemical--associated health events occur frequently in residential settings. A total of 236 Vibrio wound infections were reported to be associated with recreational water exposure; 36 (48.6%) of the 74 hospitalized vibriosis patients and six (66.7%) of the nine vibriosis patients who died had V. vulnificus infections. Eight fatal cases of PAM occurred after exposure to warm untreated freshwater. The 134 recreational water--associated outbreaks reported for 2007--2008 represent a substantial increase over the 78 outbreaks reported for 2005--2006 and the largest number of outbreaks ever reported to WBDOSS for a 2-year period. Outbreaks, especially the largest ones, were most frequently associated with treated recreational water and characterized by AGI. Cryptosporidium remains the leading etiologic agent. Pool chemical--associated health events occur frequently but are preventable. Data on other select recreational water--associated health events further elucidate the epidemiology of U.S. waterborne disease by highlighting less frequently implicated types of recreational water (e.g., oceans) and detected types of recreational water--associated illness (i.e., not AGI). CDC uses waterborne disease outbreak surveillance data to 1) identify the types of etiologic agents, recreational water venues, and settings associated with waterborne disease outbreaks; 2) evaluate the adequacy of regulations and public awareness activities to promote healthy and safe swimming; and 3) establish public health priorities to improve prevention efforts, guidelines, and regulations at the local, state, and federal levels.

Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of ebola in sierra leone and liberia.

PubMed

Rivers, Caitlin M; Lofgren, Eric T; Marathe, Madhav; Eubank, Stephen; Lewis, Bryan L

2014-11-06

An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic. Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of ebola in sierra leone and liberia.

PubMed

Rivers, Caitlin M; Lofgren, Eric T; Marathe, Madhav; Eubank, Stephen; Lewis, Bryan L

2014-10-16

An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic. Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

Who Goes to School? School Enrollment Patterns in Somalia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moyi, Peter

2012-01-01

Somalia gained its independence in 1960; however, civil conflict broke out in 1991. The outbreak of civil conflict was the final blow for already collapsed education in Somalia. The civil conflict completely destroyed the remaining educational structure. Despite the protracted nature of the conflict Somalia has slowly been pushed out of the active…

Whole genome sequencing identifies circulating Beijing-lineage Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in Guatemala and an associated urban outbreak.

PubMed

Saelens, Joseph W; Lau-Bonilla, Dalia; Moller, Anneliese; Medina, Narda; Guzmán, Brenda; Calderón, Maylena; Herrera, Raúl; Sisk, Dana M; Xet-Mull, Ana M; Stout, Jason E; Arathoon, Eduardo; Samayoa, Blanca; Tobin, David M

2015-12-01

Limited data are available regarding the molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains circulating in Guatemala. Beijing-lineage Mtb strains have gained prevalence worldwide and are associated with increased virulence and drug resistance, but there have been only a few cases reported in Central America. Here we report the first whole genome sequencing of Central American Beijing-lineage strains of Mtb. We find that multiple Beijing-lineage strains, derived from independent founding events, are currently circulating in Guatemala, but overall still represent a relatively small proportion of disease burden. Finally, we identify a specific Beijing-lineage outbreak centered on a poor neighborhood in Guatemala City. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks.

PubMed

Wiltshire, Serge W

2018-01-01

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents' contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments-defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems-a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer-producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase "farrow to finish" production systems.

Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: Strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data

PubMed Central

Alam, Shah Jamal; Zhang, Xinyu; Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie; Henry, Christopher; Zhong, Lin; Volz, Erik M.; Brenner, Bluma G.; Koopman, James S.

2013-01-01

Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics. PMID:23438430

Field-isolated genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis vary in virulence and influence case pathology but do not affect outbreak size.

PubMed

Wright, David M; Allen, Adrian R; Mallon, Thomas R; McDowell, Stanley W J; Bishop, Stephen C; Glass, Elizabeth J; Bermingham, Mairead L; Woolliams, John A; Skuce, Robin A

2013-01-01

Strains of many infectious agents differ in fundamental epidemiological parameters including transmissibility, virulence and pathology. We investigated whether genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, bTB) differ significantly in transmissibility and virulence, combining data from a nine-year survey of the genetic structure of the M. bovis population in Northern Ireland with detailed records of the cattle population during the same period. We used the size of herd breakdowns as a proxy measure of transmissibility and the proportion of skin test positive animals (reactors) that were visibly lesioned as a measure of virulence. Average breakdown size increased with herd size and varied depending on the manner of detection (routine herd testing or tracing of infectious contacts) but we found no significant variation among M. bovis genotypes in breakdown size once these factors had been accounted for. However breakdowns due to some genotypes had a greater proportion of lesioned reactors than others, indicating that there may be variation in virulence among genotypes. These findings indicate that the current bTB control programme may be detecting infected herds sufficiently quickly so that differences in virulence are not manifested in terms of outbreak sizes. We also investigated whether pathology of infected cattle varied according to M. bovis genotype, analysing the distribution of lesions recorded at post mortem inspection. We concentrated on the proportion of cases lesioned in the lower respiratory tract, which can indicate the relative importance of the respiratory and alimentary routes of infection. The distribution of lesions varied among genotypes and with cattle age and there were also subtle differences among breeds. Age and breed differences may be related to differences in susceptibility and husbandry, but reasons for variation in lesion distribution among genotypes require further investigation.

A comparison of Shiga-toxin 2 bacteriophage from classical enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli serotypes and the German E. coli O104:H4 outbreak strain.

PubMed

Laing, Chad R; Zhang, Yongxiang; Gilmour, Matthew W; Allen, Vanessa; Johnson, Roger; Thomas, James E; Gannon, Victor P J

2012-01-01

Escherichia coli O104:H4 was associated with a severe foodborne disease outbreak originating in Germany in May 2011. More than 4000 illnesses and 50 deaths were reported. The outbreak strain was a typical enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) that acquired an antibiotic resistance plasmid and a Shiga-toxin 2 (Stx2)-encoding bacteriophage. Based on whole-genome phylogenies, the O104:H4 strain was most closely related to other EAEC strains; however, Stx2-bacteriophage are mobile, and do not necessarily share an evolutionary history with their bacterial host. In this study, we analyzed Stx2-bacteriophage from the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak isolates and compared them to all available Stx2-bacteriophage sequences. We also compared Stx2 production by an E. coli O104:H4 outbreak-associated isolate (ON-2011) to that of E. coli O157:H7 strains EDL933 and Sakai. Among the E. coli Stx2-phage sequences studied, that from O111:H- strain JB1-95 was most closely related phylogenetically to the Stx2-phage from the O104:H4 outbreak isolates. The phylogeny of most other Stx2-phage was largely concordant with their bacterial host genomes. Finally, O104:H4 strain ON-2011 produced less Stx2 than E. coli O157:H7 strains EDL933 and Sakai in culture; however, when mitomycin C was added, ON-2011 produced significantly more toxin than the E. coli O157:H7 strains. The Stx2-phage from the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak strain and the Stx2-phage from O111:H- strain JB1-95 likely share a common ancestor. Incongruence between the phylogenies of the Stx2-phage and their host genomes suggest the recent Stx2-phage acquisition by E. coli O104:H4. The increase in Stx2-production by ON-2011 following mitomycin C treatment may or may not be related to the high rates of hemolytic uremic syndrome associated with the German outbreak strain. Further studies are required to determine whether the elevated Stx2-production levels are due to bacteriophage or E. coli O104:H4 host related factors.

A Comparison of Shiga-Toxin 2 Bacteriophage from Classical Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli Serotypes and the German E. coli O104:H4 Outbreak Strain

PubMed Central

Laing, Chad R.; Zhang, Yongxiang; Gilmour, Matthew W.; Allen, Vanessa; Johnson, Roger; Thomas, James E.; Gannon, Victor P. J.

2012-01-01

Escherichia coli O104:H4 was associated with a severe foodborne disease outbreak originating in Germany in May 2011. More than 4000 illnesses and 50 deaths were reported. The outbreak strain was a typical enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) that acquired an antibiotic resistance plasmid and a Shiga-toxin 2 (Stx2)-encoding bacteriophage. Based on whole-genome phylogenies, the O104:H4 strain was most closely related to other EAEC strains; however, Stx2-bacteriophage are mobile, and do not necessarily share an evolutionary history with their bacterial host. In this study, we analyzed Stx2-bacteriophage from the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak isolates and compared them to all available Stx2-bacteriophage sequences. We also compared Stx2 production by an E. coli O104:H4 outbreak-associated isolate (ON-2011) to that of E. coli O157:H7 strains EDL933 and Sakai. Among the E. coli Stx2-phage sequences studied, that from O111:H- strain JB1-95 was most closely related phylogenetically to the Stx2-phage from the O104:H4 outbreak isolates. The phylogeny of most other Stx2-phage was largely concordant with their bacterial host genomes. Finally, O104:H4 strain ON-2011 produced less Stx2 than E. coli O157:H7 strains EDL933 and Sakai in culture; however, when mitomycin C was added, ON-2011 produced significantly more toxin than the E. coli O157:H7 strains. The Stx2-phage from the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak strain and the Stx2-phage from O111:H- strain JB1-95 likely share a common ancestor. Incongruence between the phylogenies of the Stx2-phage and their host genomes suggest the recent Stx2-phage acquisition by E. coli O104:H4. The increase in Stx2-production by ON-2011 following mitomycin C treatment may or may not be related to the high rates of hemolytic uremic syndrome associated with the German outbreak strain. Further studies are required to determine whether the elevated Stx2-production levels are due to bacteriophage or E. coli O104:H4 host related factors. PMID:22649523

Tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin: 1954 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbout, S. M.; Schultz, D. M.; Leslie, L. M.; Brooks, H. E.; Karoly, D. J.; Elmore, K. L.

2007-08-01

Tornadoes are a notable potential hazard associated with landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to discriminate hurricanes that produce numerous tornadoes (tornado outbreaks) from those that do not (nonoutbreaks). The data consists of all hurricane landfalls that affected the United States from the North Atlantic basin from 1954 to 2004 and the United States tornado record over the same period. Because of the more than twofold increase in the number of reported tornadoes over these 51 years, a simple least-squares linear regression (“the expected number of tornadoes”) was fit to the annual number of tornado reports to represent a baseline for comparison. The hurricanes were sorted into three categories. The first category, outbreak hurricanes, was determined by hurricanes associated with the number of tornado reports exceeding a threshold of 1.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes and at least 8 F1 and greater tornadoes during the time of landfall (from outer rainbands reaching shore to dissipation of the system). Eighteen hurricane landfalls were classified as outbreak hurricanes. Second, 37 hurricanes having less than 0.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes were classified as nonoutbreak landfalls. Finally, 28 hurricanes that were neither outbreak nor nonoutbreak hurricanes were classified as midclass hurricane landfalls. Stronger hurricanes are more likely to produce tornado outbreaks than weaker hurricanes. While 78% of outbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall, only 32% of nonoutbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall. Hurricanes that made landfall along the southern coast of the United States and recurved northeastward were more likely to produce tornadoes than those that made landfall along the east coast or those that made landfall along the southern coast but did not recurve. Recurvature was associated with a 500-hPa trough in the jet stream, which also contributed to increased deep-layer shear through the hurricane, favoring mesocyclogenesis, and increased the low-level shear, favoring tornadogenesis. The origin of the hurricane, date of landfall, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase do not appear to be factors in outbreak hurricane creation. The results of this study help clarify inconsistencies in the previous literature regarding tornado occurrences in landfalling hurricanes.

A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

PubMed Central

Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S.; Marathe, Madhav V.

2013-01-01

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area. PMID:23826222

A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting.

PubMed

Nsoesie, Elaine O; Beckman, Richard J; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S; Marathe, Madhav V

2013-01-01

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area.

Changes in Jupiter's Zonal Wind Profile Preceding and During the Juno Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tollefson, Joshua; Wong, Michael H.; de Pater, Imke; Simon, Amy A.; Orton, Glenn S.; Rogers, John H.; Atreya, Sushil K.; Cosentino, Richard G.; Januszewski, William; Morales-Juberias, Raul;

Spatial-temporal analysis of the of the risk of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bett, B.; Omolo, A.; Hansen, F.; Notenbaert, A.; Kemp, S.

2012-04-01

Historical data on Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks in Kenya covering the period 1951 - 2010 were analyzed using a logistic regression model to identify factors associated with RVF occurrence. The analysis used a division, an administrative unit below a district, as the unit of analysis. The infection status of each division was defined on a monthly time scale and used as a dependent variable. Predictors investigated include: monthly precipitation (minimum, maximum and total), normalized difference vegetation index, altitude, agro-ecological zone, presence of game, livestock and human population densities, the number of times a division has had an outbreak before and time interval in months between successive outbreaks (used as a proxy for immunity). Both univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted. The models used incorporated an auto-regressive correlation matrix to account for clustering of observations in time, while dummy variables were fitted in the multivariable model to account for spatial relatedness/topology between divisions. This last procedure was followed because it is expected that the risk of RVF occurring in a given division increases when its immediate neighbor gets infected. Functional relationships between the continuous and the outcome variables were assessed to ensure that the linearity assumption was met. Deviance and leverage residuals were also generated from the final model and used for evaluating the goodness of fit of the model. Descriptive analyzes indicate that a total of 91 divisions in 42 districts (of the original 69 districts in place by 1999) reported RVF outbreaks at least once over the period. The mean interval between outbreaks was determined to be about 43 months. Factors that were positively associated with RVF occurrence include increased precipitation, high outbreak interval and the number of times a division has been infected or reported an outbreak. The model will be validated and used for developing an RVF forecasting system. This forecasting system can then be used with the existing regional RVF prediction tools such as EMPRES-i to downscale RVF risk predictions to country-specific scales and subsequently link them with decision support systems. The ultimate aim is to increase the capacity of the national institutions to formulate appropriate RVF mitigation measures.

Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanahan, Erin; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Thoma, David P.; Wilmoth, Siri K.; Ray, Andrew; Legg, Kristin; Shovic, Henry

2016-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen (Cronartium ribicola, causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks (Dendroctonus ponderosae, mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand-level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree-level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006–2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation efforts. Using tree-level observations, the National Park Service-led Greater Yellowstone Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-term Monitoring Program provided important ecological insight on the size-dependent effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and water availability on whitebark pine mortality. This ongoing monitoring campaign will continue to offer observations that advance conservation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Raman lidar observations of a Saharan dust outbreak event: Characterization of the dust optical properties and determination of particle size and microphysical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Girolamo, Paolo; Summa, Donato; Bhawar, Rohini; Di Iorio, Tatiana; Cacciani, Marco; Veselovskii, Igor; Dubovik, Oleg; Kolgotin, Alexey

2012-04-01

The Raman lidar system BASIL was operational in Achern (Black Forest) between 25 May and 30 August 2007 in the framework of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The system performed continuous measurements over a period of approx. 36 h from 06:22 UTC on 1 August to 18:28 UTC on 2 August 2007, capturing the signature of a severe Saharan dust outbreak episode. The data clearly reveal the presence of two almost separate aerosol layers: a lower layer located between 1.5 and 3.5 km above ground level (a.g.l.) and an upper layer extending between 3.0 and 6.0 km a.g.l. The time evolution of the dust cloud is illustrated and discussed in the paper in terms of several optical parameters (particle backscatter ratio at 532 and 1064 nm, the colour ratio and the backscatter Angström parameter). An inversion algorithm was used to retrieve particle size and microphysical parameters, i.e., mean and effective radius, number, surface area, volume concentration, and complex refractive index, as well as the parameters of a bimodal particle size distribution (PSD), from the multi-wavelength lidar data of particle backscattering, extinction and depolarization. The retrieval scheme employs Tikhonov's inversion with regularization and makes use of kernel functions for randomly oriented spheroids. Size and microphysical parameters of dust particles are estimated as a function of altitude at different times during the dust outbreak event. Retrieval results reveal the presence of a fine mode with radii of 0.1-0.2 μm and a coarse mode with radii of 3-5 μm both in the lower and upper dust layers, and the dominance in the upper dust layer of a coarse mode with radii of 4-5 μm. Effective radius varies with altitude in the range 0.1-1.5 μm, while volume concentration is found to not exceed 92 μm3 cm-3. The real and imaginary part of the complex refractive index vary in the range 1.4-1.6 and 0.004-0.008, respectively.

High throughput MLVA-16 typing for Brucella based on the microfluidics technology

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Brucellosis, a zoonosis caused by the genus Brucella, has been eradicated in Northern Europe, Australia, the USA and Canada, but remains endemic in most areas of the world. The strain and biovar typing of Brucella field samples isolated in outbreaks is useful for tracing back source of infection and may be crucial for discriminating naturally occurring outbreaks versus bioterrorist events, being Brucella a potential biological warfare agent. In the last years MLVA-16 has been described for Brucella spp. genotyping. The MLVA band profiles may be resolved by different techniques i.e. the manual agarose gels, the capillary electrophoresis sequencing systems or the microfluidic Lab-on-Chip electrophoresis. In this paper we described a high throughput system of MLVA-16 typing for Brucella spp. by using of the microfluidics technology. Results The Caliper LabChip 90 equipment was evaluated for MLVA-16 typing of sixty-three Brucella samples. Furthermore, in order to validate the system, DNA samples previously resolved by sequencing system and Agilent technology, were de novo genotyped. The comparison of the MLVA typing data obtained by the Caliper equipment and those previously obtained by the other analysis methods showed a good correlation. However the outputs were not accurate as the Caliper DNA fragment sizes showed discrepancies compared with real data and a conversion table from observed to expected data was created. Conclusion In this paper we described the MLVA-16 using a rapid, sophisticated microfluidics technology for detection of amplification product sizes. The comparison of the MLVA typing data produced by Caliper LabChip 90 system with the data obtained by different techniques showed a general concordance of the results. Furthermore this platform represents a significant improvement in terms of handling, data acquiring, computational efficiency and rapidity, allowing to perform the strain genotyping in a time equal to one sixth respect to other microfluidics systems as e.g. the Agilent 2100 bioanalyzer. Finally, this platform can be considered a valid alternative to standard genotyping techniques, particularly useful dealing with a large number of samples in short time. These data confirmed that this technology represents a significative advancement in high-throughput accurate Brucella genotyping. PMID:21435217

Application of next generation sequencing in clinical microbiology and infection prevention.

PubMed

Deurenberg, Ruud H; Bathoorn, Erik; Chlebowicz, Monika A; Couto, Natacha; Ferdous, Mithila; García-Cobos, Silvia; Kooistra-Smid, Anna M D; Raangs, Erwin C; Rosema, Sigrid; Veloo, Alida C M; Zhou, Kai; Friedrich, Alexander W; Rossen, John W A

2017-02-10

Current molecular diagnostics of human pathogens provide limited information that is often not sufficient for outbreak and transmission investigation. Next generation sequencing (NGS) determines the DNA sequence of a complete bacterial genome in a single sequence run, and from these data, information on resistance and virulence, as well as information for typing is obtained, useful for outbreak investigation. The obtained genome data can be further used for the development of an outbreak-specific screening test. In this review, a general introduction to NGS is presented, including the library preparation and the major characteristics of the most common NGS platforms, such as the MiSeq (Illumina) and the Ion PGM™ (ThermoFisher). An overview of the software used for NGS data analyses used at the medical microbiology diagnostic laboratory in the University Medical Center Groningen in The Netherlands is given. Furthermore, applications of NGS in the clinical setting are described, such as outbreak management, molecular case finding, characterization and surveillance of pathogens, rapid identification of bacteria using the 16S-23S rRNA region, taxonomy, metagenomics approaches on clinical samples, and the determination of the transmission of zoonotic micro-organisms from animals to humans. Finally, we share our vision on the use of NGS in personalised microbiology in the near future, pointing out specific requirements. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ebola hemorrhagic Fever: novel biomarker correlates of clinical outcome.

PubMed

McElroy, Anita K; Erickson, Bobbie R; Flietstra, Timothy D; Rollin, Pierre E; Nichol, Stuart T; Towner, Jonathan S; Spiropoulou, Christina F

2014-08-15

Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks occur sporadically in Africa and result in high rates of death. The 2000-2001 outbreak of Sudan virus-associated EHF in the Gulu district of Uganda led to 425 cases, of which 216 were laboratory confirmed, making it the largest EHF outbreak on record. Serum specimens from this outbreak had been preserved in liquid nitrogen from the time of collection and were available for analysis. Available samples were tested using a series of multiplex assays to measure the concentrations of 55 biomarkers. The data were analyzed to identify statistically significant associations between the tested biomarkers and hemorrhagic manifestations, viremia, and/or death. Death, hemorrhage, and viremia were independently associated with elevated levels of several chemokines and cytokines. Death and hemorrhage were associated with elevated thrombomodulin and ferritin levels. Hemorrhage was also associated with elevated levels of soluble intracellular adhesion molecule. Viremia was independently associated with elevated levels of tissue factor and tissue plasminogen activator. Finally, samples from nonfatal cases had higher levels of sCD40L. These novel associations provide a better understanding of EHF pathophysiology and a starting point for researching new potential targets for therapeutic interventions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

A one-year effective reproduction number of the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreaks in the widespread West African countries and quantitative evaluation of air travel restriction measure.

PubMed

Wiratsudakul, Anuwat; Triampo, Wannapong; Laosiritaworn, Yongjua; Modchang, Charin

The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest and longest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the history, and the virus has escaped across countries and continents via air travel in this outbreak. The interpolated data from WHO Ebola situation reports were used to estimate number of weekly infectious individuals and daily effective reproduction numbers (R t ) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A stochastic dynamic model was performed to estimate the risk of EVD importation into the top 20 final destination countries of air travelers departing from within the three epidemic countries, and the effectiveness of air travel restriction was subsequently evaluated. The daily R t was estimated at 0.72-1.32 in Guinea, 0.62-1.38 in Liberia and 0.81-1.38 in Sierra Leone. The peak of EVD importation probability was observed in early November 2014 and the restriction of air travel may mitigate the risk up to 67.7% (95% CI 66.6-68.7). Our results suggest that restriction of air travels is effective in reducing the risk of EVD importation but controlling of the virus at the original affected countries is vitally more important for preventing inter-terrestrial dissemination of EVD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reprint of "Application of next generation sequencing in clinical microbiology and infection prevention".

PubMed

Deurenberg, Ruud H; Bathoorn, Erik; Chlebowicz, Monika A; Couto, Natacha; Ferdous, Mithila; García-Cobos, Silvia; Kooistra-Smid, Anna M D; Raangs, Erwin C; Rosema, Sigrid; Veloo, Alida C M; Zhou, Kai; Friedrich, Alexander W; Rossen, John W A

2017-05-20

Current molecular diagnostics of human pathogens provide limited information that is often not sufficient for outbreak and transmission investigation. Next generation sequencing (NGS) determines the DNA sequence of a complete bacterial genome in a single sequence run, and from these data, information on resistance and virulence, as well as information for typing is obtained, useful for outbreak investigation. The obtained genome data can be further used for the development of an outbreak-specific screening test. In this review, a general introduction to NGS is presented, including the library preparation and the major characteristics of the most common NGS platforms, such as the MiSeq (Illumina) and the Ion PGM™ (ThermoFisher). An overview of the software used for NGS data analyses used at the medical microbiology diagnostic laboratory in the University Medical Center Groningen in The Netherlands is given. Furthermore, applications of NGS in the clinical setting are described, such as outbreak management, molecular case finding, characterization and surveillance of pathogens, rapid identification of bacteria using the 16S-23S rRNA region, taxonomy, metagenomics approaches on clinical samples, and the determination of the transmission of zoonotic micro-organisms from animals to humans. Finally, we share our vision on the use of NGS in personalised microbiology in the near future, pointing out specific requirements. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Integrated sequence and immunology filovirus database at Los Alamos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yusim, Karina; Yoon, Hyejin; Foley, Brian

The Ebola outbreak of 2013–15 infected more than 28,000 people and claimed more lives than all previous filovirus outbreaks combined. Governmental agencies, clinical teams, and the world scientific community pulled together in a multifaceted response ranging from prevention and disease control, to evaluating vaccines and therapeutics in human trials. We report that as this epidemic is finally coming to a close, refocusing on long-term prevention strategies becomes paramount. Given the very real threat of future filovirus outbreaks, and the inherent uncertainty of the next outbreak virus and geographic location, it is prudent to consider the extent and implications of knownmore » natural diversity in advancing vaccines and therapeutic approaches. To facilitate such consideration, we have updated and enhanced the content of the filovirus portion of Los Alamos Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses Database. We have integrated and performed baseline analysis of all family Filoviridae sequences deposited into GenBank, with associated immune response data, and metadata, and we have added new computational tools with web-interfaces to assist users with analysis. Here, we (i) describe the main features of updated database, (ii) provide integrated views and some basic analyses summarizing evolutionary patterns as they relate to geo-temporal data captured in the database and (iii) highlight the most conserved regions in the proteome that may be useful for a T cell vaccine strategy.« less

Integrated sequence and immunology filovirus database at Los Alamos

PubMed Central

Yoon, Hyejin; Foley, Brian; Feng, Shihai; Macke, Jennifer; Dimitrijevic, Mira; Abfalterer, Werner; Szinger, James; Fischer, Will; Kuiken, Carla; Korber, Bette

2016-01-01

The Ebola outbreak of 2013–15 infected more than 28 000 people and claimed more lives than all previous filovirus outbreaks combined. Governmental agencies, clinical teams, and the world scientific community pulled together in a multifaceted response ranging from prevention and disease control, to evaluating vaccines and therapeutics in human trials. As this epidemic is finally coming to a close, refocusing on long-term prevention strategies becomes paramount. Given the very real threat of future filovirus outbreaks, and the inherent uncertainty of the next outbreak virus and geographic location, it is prudent to consider the extent and implications of known natural diversity in advancing vaccines and therapeutic approaches. To facilitate such consideration, we have updated and enhanced the content of the filovirus portion of Los Alamos Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses Database. We have integrated and performed baseline analysis of all family Filoviridae sequences deposited into GenBank, with associated immune response data, and metadata, and we have added new computational tools with web-interfaces to assist users with analysis. Here, we (i) describe the main features of updated database, (ii) provide integrated views and some basic analyses summarizing evolutionary patterns as they relate to geo-temporal data captured in the database and (iii) highlight the most conserved regions in the proteome that may be useful for a T cell vaccine strategy. Database URL: www.hfv.lanl.gov PMID:27103629

Integrated sequence and immunology filovirus database at Los Alamos

DOE PAGES

Yusim, Karina; Yoon, Hyejin; Foley, Brian; ...

2016-01-01

The Ebola outbreak of 2013–15 infected more than 28,000 people and claimed more lives than all previous filovirus outbreaks combined. Governmental agencies, clinical teams, and the world scientific community pulled together in a multifaceted response ranging from prevention and disease control, to evaluating vaccines and therapeutics in human trials. We report that as this epidemic is finally coming to a close, refocusing on long-term prevention strategies becomes paramount. Given the very real threat of future filovirus outbreaks, and the inherent uncertainty of the next outbreak virus and geographic location, it is prudent to consider the extent and implications of knownmore » natural diversity in advancing vaccines and therapeutic approaches. To facilitate such consideration, we have updated and enhanced the content of the filovirus portion of Los Alamos Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses Database. We have integrated and performed baseline analysis of all family Filoviridae sequences deposited into GenBank, with associated immune response data, and metadata, and we have added new computational tools with web-interfaces to assist users with analysis. Here, we (i) describe the main features of updated database, (ii) provide integrated views and some basic analyses summarizing evolutionary patterns as they relate to geo-temporal data captured in the database and (iii) highlight the most conserved regions in the proteome that may be useful for a T cell vaccine strategy.« less

HIGH HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE AND UV LIGHT TREATMENT OF PRODUCE CONTAMINATED WITH EIMERIA ACERVULINA AS A CYCLOSPORA CAYETANENSIS SURROGATE

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The prevalence, size, genome, and life cycle of Eimeria acervulina make this organism a good surrogate for Cyclospora cayetanensis, a protozoan that causes gastroenteritis in humans, including recent outbreaks in the United States and Canada associated with contaminated raspberries and basil. Labora...

Southern Pine Beetle Outbreak in Belize

Treesearch

Robert A. Haack; Claus M. Eckelmann; Earl Green

2000-01-01

Belize is a Central American country that borders Mexico, Guatemala, and the Caribbean Sea (see Map). Belize, formerly called British Honduras from 1862 until 1973, is about 23,000 square kilometers in size, which is about the area of Massachusetts. Elevation varies from sea level to 1120 meters. The major vegetation types include mangrove swamp, broadleafjungle,...

Influences of eastern hemlock mortality on nutrient cycling

Treesearch

Thad E. Yorks; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Donald J. Leopold; Dudley J. Raynal; David A. Orwig

2000-01-01

Mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere) may be caused by a variety of agents, but hemlock trees of all sizes over a large geographic area are currently threatened by an outbreak of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA: Adelges tsugae Annand) in the eastern United States. In this paper, we review what is currently...

Interannual variability, growth, reproduction and feeding of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa) in the Straits of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea): Linkages with temperature and diet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosa, S.; Pansera, M.; Granata, A.; Guglielmo, L.

2013-02-01

To identify some of the possible environmental factors stimulating the increasingly frequent outbreaks of the scyphomedusa Pelagia noctiluca in the Straits of Messina, we investigated its abundance, growth, reproduction and feeding over a 4-year period, from 2007 to 2011, at two coastal sites. Using either field investigations and manipulative experiments we show that, among the various factors considered, shifts in water temperature (influencing medusae metabolism, growth and reproduction rates) and the size structure of the zooplankton community (their natural preys) can promote the proliferation of P. noctiluca. In particular, we show that increased temperature let jellyfishes to grow more rapidly and reach exceptional sizes. We also report a peculiar opportunistic behavior of P. noctiluca, which makes this species a potentially strong competitor in the pelagic trophic web of the Straits ecosystem. We therefore propose that more frequent P. noctiluca outbreaks stimulated by increasing sea surface temperature and shifts in their prey availability and composition would become, in the near future, a major cause of ecosystem shift.

Simulation of Cross-border Impacts Resulting from Classical Swine Fever Epidemics within the Netherlands and Germany.

PubMed

Hop, G E; Mourits, M C M; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

2016-02-01

The cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and the two German states of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) is a large and highly integrated livestock production area. This region increasingly develops towards a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. The objectives of this study were to examine classical swine fever (CSF) control strategies' veterinary and direct economic impacts for NL, NRW and LS given the current production structure and to analyse CSF's cross-border causes and impacts within the NL-NRW-LS region. The course of the epidemic was simulated by the use of InterSpread Plus, whereas economic analysis was restricted to calculating disease control costs and costs directly resulting from the control measures applied. Three veterinary control strategies were considered: a strategy based on the minimum EU requirements, a vaccination and a depopulation strategy based on NL and GER's contingency plans. Regardless of the veterinary control strategy, simulated outbreak sizes and durations for 2010 were much smaller than those simulated previously, using data from over 10 years ago. For example, worst-case outbreaks (50th percentile) in NL resulted in 30-40 infected farms and lasted for two to four and a half months; associated direct costs and direct consequential costs ranged from €24.7 to 28.6 million and €11.7 to 26.7 million, respectively. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies were efficient in controlling outbreaks, especially large outbreaks, whereas the EU minimum strategy was especially deficient in controlling worst-case outbreaks. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies resulted in low direct costs and direct consequential costs. The probability of cross-border disease spread was relatively low, and cross-border spread resulted in small, short outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Few opportunities for further cross-border harmonization and collaboration were identified, including the implementation of cross-border regions (free and diseased regions regardless of the border) in case of outbreaks within close proximity of the border, and more and quicker sharing of information across the border. It was expected, however, that collaboration to mitigate the market effects of an epidemic will create more opportunities to lower the impact of CSF outbreaks in a cross-border context. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T.; Bebi, Peter

2016-01-01

The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were killed in the 1940s outbreak. No young post-fire trees (< ca. 128 years) were susceptible to the 1940s outbreak, implying that under the relatively cool and wet conditions of the mid-20th century, susceptibility to and spatial patterns of spruce beetle outbreak were most likely controlled by variations in severity of prior disturbance by fire. This study provides a baseline for comparing linked disturbances under the relatively warmer and drier conditions of recent (e.g. post-1990) outbreaks in order to assess how climate mitigates the degree to which pre-disturbance history and structure affect susceptibility to disturbances. PMID:27438289

Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility to a 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak in Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T; Bebi, Peter

2016-01-01

The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were killed in the 1940s outbreak. No young post-fire trees (< ca. 128 years) were susceptible to the 1940s outbreak, implying that under the relatively cool and wet conditions of the mid-20th century, susceptibility to and spatial patterns of spruce beetle outbreak were most likely controlled by variations in severity of prior disturbance by fire. This study provides a baseline for comparing linked disturbances under the relatively warmer and drier conditions of recent (e.g. post-1990) outbreaks in order to assess how climate mitigates the degree to which pre-disturbance history and structure affect susceptibility to disturbances.

The Complete Sequence of a West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Strain Detected in a Hyalomma marginatum marginatum Tick Collected from a Song Thrush (Turdus philomelos) in Eastern Romania in 2013 Revealed Closest Genetic Relationship to Strain Volgograd 2007

PubMed Central

Kolodziejek, Jolanta; Marinov, Mihai; Kiss, Botond J.; Alexe, Vasile; Nowotny, Norbert

2014-01-01

In this study the first complete sequence of the West Nile virus (WNV) lineage 2 strain currently circulating in Romania was determined. The virus was detected in a Hyalomma marginatum marginatum tick collected from a juvenile song thrush (Turdus philomelos) in the Romanian Danube Delta close to the city of Tulcea, end of August 2013. Our finding emphasizes the role of ticks in introduction and maintenance of WNV infections. Sequence analyses revealed close genetic relationship of the Romanian WNV strain to strain Reb_Volgograd_07_H, which was isolated from human brain tissue during an outbreak of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in Russia in 2007. In 2010 the Eastern European lineage 2 WNV caused an outbreak of human WNND in Romania. Partial sequences from subsequent years demonstrated that this WNV strain became endemic in Eastern Europe and has been causing outbreaks of varying sizes in southern Russia since 2007 and in Romania since 2010. PMID:25279973

A cohort study of the effect of winter dysentery on herd-level milk production.

PubMed

Toftaker, Ingrid; Holmøy, Ingrid; Nødtvedt, Ane; Østerås, Olav; Stokstad, Maria

2017-08-01

Winter dysentery (WD) is a contagious disease caused by bovine coronavirus. It is characterized by acute onset of diarrhea, fever, depression, and reduced milk yield in adult cattle. Although production loss is a well-known consequence of WD, large-scale studies estimating the effect on milk production are lacking. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of farmer-reported WD on herd-level milk production and milk composition. A cohort study was performed based on reports of herd outbreaks of winter dysentery during a regional epidemic in Norway during the winter of 2011-2012. Reports were made by farmers, and diagnosis was based on a herd outbreak of acute diarrhea in adults. Milk shipment data were retrieved from the dairy company, and information on herd size and milking system were retrieved from the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System. We compared milk production in herds with reported outbreaks of WD (n = 224) with all herds in the same area without a reported outbreak (n = 2,093) during the same period. The outcome variable in the analysis was milk volume per cow per day, and the main predictor was whether the herd had a reported outbreak of WD or not. We assessed the effect of WD on milk production by fitting a linear mixed model, adjusting for milk production in the herd before the outbreak. Similarly, we assessed the effect of WD on milk composition using linear regression, adjusting for the levels of milk components before the outbreak. This study estimated a total loss of 51 L/cow during the study period, from 7 d before to 19 d after a reported outbreak. The lowest estimated production was 2 d after the outbreak was reported, when the average milk yield was 19.4 L/cow per day, compared with 23.0 L/cow per day 7 days before notification (i.e., a difference of 3.6 L/cow, or 15%). The effect gradually declined with time. The estimated effect on milk composition was modest, but an increase of 11% in free fatty acids and a small increase in fat/protein ratio indicated that WD might put cows into negative energy balance. Descriptive analysis indicated that herd milk yield was still reduced 4 mo after an outbreak. This cohort study showed that WD causes considerable decreases in milk production, and it alters milk composition. These findings highlight the important negative consequences of WD, and should motivate actions to prevent between-herd spread of bovine coronavirus. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wetland characteristics linked to broad-scale patterns in Culiseta melanura abundance and eastern equine encephalitis virus infection.

PubMed

Skaff, Nicholas K; Armstrong, Philip M; Andreadis, Theodore G; Cheruvelil, Kendra S

2017-10-18

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an expanding mosquito-borne threat to humans and domestic animal populations in the northeastern United States. Outbreaks of EEEV are challenging to predict due to spatial and temporal uncertainty in the abundance and viral infection of Cs. melanura, the principal enzootic vector. EEEV activity may be closely linked to wetlands because they provide essential habitat for mosquito vectors and avian reservoir hosts. However, wetlands are not homogeneous and can vary by vegetation, connectivity, size, and inundation patterns. Wetlands may also have different effects on EEEV transmission depending on the assessed spatial scale. We investigated associations between wetland characteristics and Cs. melanura abundance and infection with EEEV at multiple spatial scales in Connecticut, USA. Our findings indicate that wetland vegetative characteristics have strong associations with Cs. melanura abundance. Deciduous and evergreen forested wetlands were associated with higher Cs. melanura abundance, likely because these wetlands provide suitable subterranean habitat for Cs. melanura development. In contrast, Cs. melanura abundance was negatively associated with emergent and scrub/shrub wetlands, and wetland connectivity to streams. These relationships were generally strongest at broad spatial scales. Additionally, the relationships between wetland characteristics and EEEV infection in Cs. melanura were generally weak. However, Cs. melanura abundance was strongly associated with EEEV infection, suggesting that wetland-associated changes in abundance may be indirectly linked to EEEV infection in Cs. melanura. Finally, we found that wet hydrological conditions during the transmission season and during the fall/winter preceding the transmission season were associated with higher Cs. melanura abundance and EEEV infection, indicating that wet conditions are favorable for EEEV transmission. These results expand the broad-scale understanding of the effects of wetlands on EEEV transmission and help to reduce the spatial and temporal uncertainty associated with EEEV outbreaks.

Top-down control in a patchy environment: revisiting the stabilizing role of food-dependent predator dispersal.

PubMed

Morozov, Andrew; Sen, Moitri; Banerjee, Malay

2012-02-01

In this paper, we revisit the stabilizing role that predator dispersal and aggregation have in the top-down regulation of predator-prey systems in a heterogeneous environment. We consider an environment consisting of sites interconnected by dispersal, and propose a novel mechanism of stabilization for the case with a non-sigmoid functional response of predators. We assume that the carrying capacity of the prey is infinitely large in each site, and show that successful top-down regulation of this otherwise globally unstable system is made possible through an interplay between the unevenness of prey fitness across the sites and the rapid food-dependent migration of predators. We argue that this mechanism of stabilization is different from those previously reported in the literature: in particular, it requires a high degree of synchronicity in local oscillations of species densities across the sites. Prey outbreaks take place synchronously, but the unevenness of prey growth rates across the sites results in a pronounced difference in the species densities, and so the predator quickly disperses to the sites with the highest prey abundances. For this reason, the consumption of prey mostly takes place in the sites with high densities of prey, which assures an efficient suppression of outbreaks. Furthermore, when the total size of prey population is low, the distribution of both species among the sites becomes more even, and this prevents overconsumption of the prey by the predator. Finally, we put forward the hypothesis that this mechanism, when considered in a tri-trophic plankton community in the water column, can explain the stability of the nutrient-rich low-chlorophyll open ocean regions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surveillance for waterborne disease and outbreaks associated with recreational water--United States, 2003-2004.

PubMed

Dziuban, Eric J; Liang, Jennifer L; Craun, Gunther F; Hill, Vincent; Yu, Patricia A; Painter, John; Moore, Matthew R; Calderon, Rebecca L; Roy, Sharon L; Beach, Michael J

2006-12-22

Since 1971, CDC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have collaboratively maintained the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System for collecting and reporting waterborne disease and outbreak (WBDO)-related data. In 1978, WBDOs associated with recreational water (natural and treated water) were added. This system is the primary source of data regarding the scope and effects of WBDOs in the United States. Data presented summarize WBDOs associated with recreational water that occurred during January 2003-December 2004 and one previously unreported outbreak from 2002. Public health departments in the states, territories, localities, and the Freely Associated States (i.e., the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Palau, formerly parts of the U.S.-administered Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands) have primary responsibility for detecting, investigating, and voluntarily reporting WBDOs to CDC. Although the surveillance system includes data for WBDOs associated with drinking water, recreational water, and water not intended for drinking, only cases and outbreaks associated with recreational water are summarized in this report. During 2003-2004, a total 62 WBDOs associated with recreational water were reported by 26 states and Guam. Illness occurred in 2,698 persons, resulting in 58 hospitalizations and one death. The median outbreak size was 14 persons (range: 1-617 persons). Of the 62 WBDOs, 30 (48.4%) were outbreaks of gastroenteritis that resulted from infectious agents, chemicals, or toxins; 13 (21.0%) were outbreaks of dermatitis; and seven (11.3%) were outbreaks of acute respiratory illness (ARI). The remaining 12 WBDOs resulted in primary amebic meningoencephalitis (n = one), meningitis (n = one), leptospirosis (n = one), otitis externa (n = one), and mixed illnesses (n = eight). WBDOs associated with gastroenteritis resulted in 1,945 (72.1%) of 2,698 illnesses. Forty-three (69.4%) WBDOs occurred at treated water venues, resulting in 2,446 (90.7%) cases of illness. The etiologic agent was confirmed in 44 (71.0%) of the 62 WBDOs, suspected in 15 (24.2%), and unidentified in three (4.8%). Twenty (32.3%) WBDOs had a bacterial etiology; 15 (24.2%), parasitic; six (9.7%), viral; and three (4.8%), chemical or toxin. Among the 30 gastroenteritis outbreaks, Cryptosporidium was confirmed as the causal agent in 11 (36.7%), and all except one of these outbreaks occurred in treated water venues where Cryptosporidium caused 55.6% (10/18) of the gastroenteritis outbreaks. In this report, 142 Vibrio illnesses (reported to the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance System) that were associated with recreational water exposure were analyzed separately. The most commonly reported species were Vibrio vulnificus, V. alginolyticus, and V. parahaemolyticus. V. vulnificus illnesses associated with recreational water exposure had the highest Vibrio illness hospitalization (87.2%) and mortality (12.8%) rates. The number of WBDOs summarized in this report and the trends in recreational water-associated disease and outbreaks are consistent with previous years. Outbreaks, especially the largest ones, are most likely to be associated with summer months, treated water venues, and gastrointestinal illness. Approximately 60% of illnesses reported for 2003-2004 were associated with the seven largest outbreaks (>100 cases). Deficiencies leading to WBDOs included problems with water quality, venue design, usage, and maintenance. CDC uses WBDO surveillance data to 1) identify the etiologic agents, types of aquatic venues, water-treatment systems, and deficiencies associated with outbreaks; 2) evaluate the adequacy of efforts (i.e., regulations and public awareness activities) to provide safe recreational water; and 3) establish public health prevention priorities that might lead to improved regulations and prevention measures at the local, state, and federal levels.

Laboratory replication of filtration procedures associated with Serratia marcescens bloodstream infections in patients receiving compounded amino acid solutions.

PubMed

Moulton-Meissner, Heather; Noble-Wang, Judith; Gupta, Neil; Hocevar, Susan; Kallen, Alex; Arduino, Matthew

2015-08-01

Specific deviations from United States Pharmacopeia standards were analyzed to investigate the factors allowing an outbreak of Serratia marcescens bloodstream infections in patients receiving compounded amino acid solutions. Filter challenge experiments using the outbreak strain of S. marcescens were compared with those that used the filter challenge organism recommended by ASTM International (Brevundimonas diminuta ATCC 19162) to determine the frequency and degree of organism breakthrough. Disk and capsule filters (0.22- and 0.2-μm nominal pore size, respectively) were challenged with either the outbreak strain of S. marcescens or B. diminuta ATCC 19162. The following variables were compared: culture conditions in which organisms were grown overnight or cultured in sterile water (starved), solution type (15% amino acid solution or sterile water), and filtration with or without a 0.5-μm prefilter. Small-scale, syringe-driven, disk-filtration experiments of starved bacterial cultures indicated that approximately 1 in every 1,000 starved S. marcescens cells (0.12%) was able to pass through a 0.22-μm nominal pore-size filter, and about 1 in every 1,000,000 cells was able to pass through a 0.1-μm nominal pore-size filter. No passage of the B. diminuta ATCC 19162 cells was observed with either filter. In full-scale experiments, breakthrough was observed only when 0.2-μm capsule filters were challenged with starved S. marcescens in 15% amino acid solution without a 0.5-μm prefiltration step. Laboratory simulation testing revealed that under certain conditions, bacteria can pass through 0.22- and 0.2-μm filters intended for sterilization of an amino acid solution. Bacteria did not pass through 0.2-μm filters when a 0.5-μm prefilter was used. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Spear, Robert C.; Marshall, John M.; Yang, Zhicong; Gong, Peng

2016-01-01

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future. PMID:26863623

Multi-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis for outbreak studies of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis

PubMed Central

Malorny, Burkhard; Junker, Ernst; Helmuth, Reiner

2008-01-01

Background Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Enteritidis is known as an important and pathogenic clonal group which continues to cause worldwide sporadic cases and outbreaks in humans. Here a new multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) method is reported for highly-discriminative subtyping of Salmonella Enteritidis. Emphasis was given on the most predominant phage types PT4 and PT8. The method comprises multiplex PCR specifically amplifying repeated sequences from nine different loci followed by an automatic fragment size analysis using a multicolor capillary electrophoresis instrument. A total of 240 human, animal, food and environmental isolates of S. Enteritidis including 23 definite phage types were used for development and validation. Furthermore, the MLVA types were compared to the phage types of several isolates from two recent outbreaks to determine the concordance between both methods and to estimate their in vivo stability. The in vitro stability of the two MLVA types specifically for PT4 and PT8 strains were determined by multiple freeze-thaw cycles. Results Seventy-nine different MLVA types were identified in 240 S. Enteritidis strains. The Simpson's diversity index for the MLVA method was 0.919 and Nei diversity values for the nine VNTR loci ranged from 0.07 to 0.65. Twenty-four MLVA types could be assigned to 62 PT4 strains and 21 types to 81 PT8 strains. All outbreak isolates had an indistinguishable outbreak specific MLVA type. The in vitro stability experiments showed no changes of the MLVA type compared to the original isolate. Conclusion This MLVA method is useful to discriminate S. Enteritidis strains even within a single phage type. It is easy in use, fast, and cheap compared to other high-resolution molecular methods and therefore an important tool for surveillance and outbreak studies for S. Enteritidis. PMID:18513386

An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Thompson, Kimberly M

2015-09-24

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies. We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption. Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013-2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies. Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure.

Evaluating the control of HPAIV H5N1 in Vietnam: virus transmission within infected flocks reported before and after vaccination.

PubMed

Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Otte, Joachim

2010-06-05

Currently, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the subtype H5N1 is believed to have reached an endemic cycle in Vietnam. We used routine surveillance data on HPAIV H5N1 poultry outbreaks in Vietnam to estimate and compare the within-flock reproductive number of infection (R0) for periods before (second epidemic wave, 2004-5; depopulation-based disease control) and during (fourth epidemic wave, beginning 2007; vaccination-based disease control) vaccination. Our results show that infected premises (IPs) in the initial (exponential) phases of outbreak periods have the highest R0 estimates. The IPs reported during the outbreak period when depopulation-based disease control was implemented had higher R0 estimates than IPs reported during the outbreak period when vaccination-based disease control was used. In the latter period, in some flocks of a defined size and species composition, within-flock transmission estimates were not significantly below the threshold for transmission (R0 < 1). Our results indicate that the current control policy based on depopulation plus vaccination has protected the majority of poultry flocks against infection. However, in some flocks the determinants associated with suboptimal protection need to be further investigated as these may explain the current pattern of infection in animal and human populations.

Immune Memory to Sudan Virus: Comparison between Two Separate Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Sobarzo, Ariel; Eskira, Yael; Herbert, Andrew S.; Kuehne, Ana I.; Stonier, Spencer W.; Ochayon, David E.; Fedida-Metula, Shlomit; Balinandi, Steven; Kislev, Yaara; Tali, Neta; Lewis, Eli C.; Lutwama, Julius Julian; Dye, John M.; Yavelsky, Victoria; Lobel, Leslie

2015-01-01

Recovery from ebolavirus infection in humans is associated with the development of both cell-mediated and humoral immune responses. According to recent studies, individuals that did not survive infection with ebolaviruses appear to have lacked a robust adaptive immune response and the expression of several early innate response markers. However, a comprehensive protective immune profile has yet to be described. Here, we examine cellular memory immune responses among survivors of two separate Ebolavirus outbreaks (EVDs) due to Sudan virus (SUDV) infection in Uganda—Gulu 2000–2001 and Kibaale 2012. Freshly collected blood samples were stimulated with inactivated SUDV, as well as with recombinant SUDV or Ebola virus (EBOV) GP (GP1–649). In addition, ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization assays were performed to determine anti-SUDV IgG titers and neutralization capacity. Cytokine expression was measured in whole blood cultures in response to SUDV and SUDV GP stimulation in both survivor pools, demonstrating recall responses that indicate immune memory. Cytokine responses between groups were similar but had distinct differences. Neutralizing, SUDV-specific IgG activity against irradiated SUDV and SUDV recombinant proteins were detected in both survivor cohorts. Furthermore, humoral and cell-mediated crossreactivity to EBOV and EBOV recombinant GP1–649 was observed in both cohorts. In conclusion, immune responses in both groups of survivors demonstrate persistent recognition of relevant antigens, albeit larger cohorts are required in order to reach greater statistical significance. The differing cytokine responses between Gulu and Kibaale outbreak survivors suggests that each outbreak may not yield identical memory responses and promotes the merits of studying the immune responses among outbreaks of the same virus. Finally, our demonstration of cross-reactive immune recognition suggests that there is potential for developing cross-protective vaccines for ebolaviruses. PMID:25569078

Immune memory to Sudan virus: comparison between two separate disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Sobarzo, Ariel; Eskira, Yael; Herbert, Andrew S; Kuehne, Ana I; Stonier, Spencer W; Ochayon, David E; Fedida-Metula, Shlomit; Balinandi, Steven; Kislev, Yaara; Tali, Neta; Lewis, Eli C; Lutwama, Julius Julian; Dye, John M; Yavelsky, Victoria; Lobel, Leslie

2015-01-06

Recovery from ebolavirus infection in humans is associated with the development of both cell-mediated and humoral immune responses. According to recent studies, individuals that did not survive infection with ebolaviruses appear to have lacked a robust adaptive immune response and the expression of several early innate response markers. However, a comprehensive protective immune profile has yet to be described. Here, we examine cellular memory immune responses among survivors of two separate Ebolavirus outbreaks (EVDs) due to Sudan virus (SUDV) infection in Uganda-Gulu 2000-2001 and Kibaale 2012. Freshly collected blood samples were stimulated with inactivated SUDV, as well as with recombinant SUDV or Ebola virus (EBOV) GP (GP1-649). In addition, ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization assays were performed to determine anti-SUDV IgG titers and neutralization capacity. Cytokine expression was measured in whole blood cultures in response to SUDV and SUDV GP stimulation in both survivor pools, demonstrating recall responses that indicate immune memory. Cytokine responses between groups were similar but had distinct differences. Neutralizing, SUDV-specific IgG activity against irradiated SUDV and SUDV recombinant proteins were detected in both survivor cohorts. Furthermore, humoral and cell-mediated crossreactivity to EBOV and EBOV recombinant GP1-649 was observed in both cohorts. In conclusion, immune responses in both groups of survivors demonstrate persistent recognition of relevant antigens, albeit larger cohorts are required in order to reach greater statistical significance. The differing cytokine responses between Gulu and Kibaale outbreak survivors suggests that each outbreak may not yield identical memory responses and promotes the merits of studying the immune responses among outbreaks of the same virus. Finally, our demonstration of cross-reactive immune recognition suggests that there is potential for developing cross-protective vaccines for ebolaviruses.

Nucleoprotein from the unique human infecting Orthobunyavirus of Simbu serogroup (Oropouche virus) forms higher order oligomers in complex with nucleic acids in vitro.

PubMed

Murillo, Juliana Londoño; Cabral, Aline Diniz; Uehara, Mabel; da Silva, Viviam Moura; Dos Santos, Juliete Vitorino; Muniz, João Renato Carvalho; Estrozi, Leandro Farias; Fenel, Daphna; Garcia, Wanius; Sperança, Márcia Aparecida

2018-06-01

Oropouche virus (OROV) is the unique known human pathogen belonging to serogroup Simbu of Orthobunyavirus genus and Bunyaviridae family. OROV is transmitted by wild mosquitoes species to sloths, rodents, monkeys and birds in sylvatic environment, and by midges (Culicoides paraensis and Culex quinquefasciatus) to man causing explosive outbreaks in urban locations. OROV infection causes dengue fever-like symptoms and in few cases, can cause clinical symptoms of aseptic meningitis. OROV contains a tripartite negative RNA genome encapsidated by the viral nucleocapsid protein (NP), which is essential for viral genome encapsidation, transcription and replication. Here, we reported the first study on the structural properties of a recombinant NP from human pathogen Oropouche virus (OROV-rNP). OROV-rNP was successfully expressed in E. coli in soluble form and purified using affinity and size-exclusion chromatographies. Purified OROV-rNP was analyzed using a series of biophysical tools and molecular modeling. The results showed that OROV-rNP formed stable oligomers in solution coupled with endogenous E. coli nucleic acids (RNA) of different sizes. Finally, electron microscopy revealed a total of eleven OROV-rNP oligomer classes with tetramers (42%) and pentamers (43%) the two main populations and minor amounts of other bigger oligomeric states, such as hexamers, heptamers or octamers. The different RNA sizes and nucleotide composition may explain the diversity of oligomer classes observed. Besides, structural differences among bunyaviruses NP can be used to help in the development of tools for specific diagnosis and epidemiological studies of this group of viruses.

Viral hemorrhagic fevers in the Tihamah region of the western Arabian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Al-habal, Mohammed; Taher, Rola; Alaoui, Altaf; El Mzibri, Mohammed

2017-01-01

Viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) refers to a group of diseases characterized by an acute febrile syndrome with hemorrhagic manifestations and high mortality rates caused by several families of viruses that affect humans and animals. These diseases are typically endemic in certain geographical regions and sometimes cause major outbreaks. The history of hemorrhagic fever in the Arabian Peninsula refers to the 19th century and most outbreaks were reported in the Tihamah region—the Red Sea coastal plain of the Arabian Peninsula in the west and southwest of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Herein, we describe the agents that cause VHFs and their epidemiology in Tihamah, the history of the diseases, transmission, species affected, and clinical signs. Finally, we address challenges in the diagnosis and control of VHFs in this region. PMID:28384205

Structure and inhibition of EV-D68, a virus that causes respiratory illness in children

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yue; Sheng, Ju; Fokine, Andrei

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is a member of Picornaviridae and is a causative agent of recent outbreaks of respiratory illness in children in the United States. We report in this paper the crystal structures of EV-D68 and its complex with pleconaril, a capsid-binding compound that had been developed as an anti-rhinovirus drug. The hydrophobic drug-binding pocket in viral protein 1 contained density that is consistent with a fatty acid of about 10 carbon atoms. This density could be displaced by pleconaril. Finally, we also showed that pleconaril inhibits EV-D68 at a half-maximal effective concentration of 430 nanomolar and might, therefore, bemore » a possible drug candidate to alleviate EV-D68 outbreaks.« less

Epidemic outbreaks and its control using a fractional order model with seasonality and stochastic infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Shaobo; Banerjee, Santo

2018-07-01

A fractional-order SIR epidemic model is proposed under the influence of both parametric seasonality and the external noise. The integer order SIR epidemic model originally is stable. By introducing seasonality and noise force to the model, behaviors of the system is changed. It is shown that the system has rich dynamical behaviors with different system parameters, fractional derivative order and the degree of seasonality and noise. Complexity of the stochastic model is investigated by using multi-scale fuzzy entropy. Finally, hard limiter controlled system is designed and simulation results show the ratio of infected individuals can converge to a small enough target ρ, which means the epidemic outbreak can be under control by the implementation of some effective medical and health measures.

[From the Mailing List SIN: expected and unexpected professional risks for the nephrologists--reflections from an outbreak of Burkholderia cepacia bacteremia in a hemodialysis unit].

PubMed

Bellazzi, R; Ciniselli, F

2005-01-01

An outbreak of bacteremia in 20 hemodialysed patients who developed central venous catheter (CVC) infection related to Burkholderia cepacia is reported, introducing medical and professional responsibilities in nephrology units. The cepacia was documented in the blood stream, in the CVC biofilm, in the water supply and in the distribution. This and other confounding factors delayed the identification of the contamination source. Finally, it was isolated, clonally identical to that found in the blood stream, from ammonium chloride solution used to disinfect the skin and distributed in a sterile disposable kit. Burkholderia cepacia was clonally different in blood with respect to water. The possible differing responsibilities in the organizational steps of nephrology activity are discussed.

Structure and inhibition of EV-D68, a virus that causes respiratory illness in children

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yue; Sheng, Ju; Fokine, Andrei; ...

2015-01-02

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is a member of Picornaviridae and is a causative agent of recent outbreaks of respiratory illness in children in the United States. We report in this paper the crystal structures of EV-D68 and its complex with pleconaril, a capsid-binding compound that had been developed as an anti-rhinovirus drug. The hydrophobic drug-binding pocket in viral protein 1 contained density that is consistent with a fatty acid of about 10 carbon atoms. This density could be displaced by pleconaril. Finally, we also showed that pleconaril inhibits EV-D68 at a half-maximal effective concentration of 430 nanomolar and might, therefore, bemore » a possible drug candidate to alleviate EV-D68 outbreaks.« less

[An outbreak of Legionnaire's disease associated with a Japanese spa].

PubMed

Nakadate, T; Yamauchi, K; Inoue, H

1999-08-01

From June 24 to July 5, 1996, 3 patients were admitted to the same hospital with atypical pneumonia. One of the patients, a 52-year-old man, demonstrated progressive pulmonary infiltrates and severe hypoxemia, and finally required mechanical ventilation. All 3 patients had elevated antibody titers for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1, and had visited the same spa prior to the onset of their symptoms. On September 25, 1996 the district health department inspected the spa, and isolated Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 from the facility's hot water tanks and outlets. Although it has been reported that many spas in Japan are contaminated with Legionellaceae, the outbreak we encountered suggests that Japanese spas, like whirlpool spas in Europe and North America, can be a source of Legionnaire's disease.

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents’ contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments—defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems—a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer–producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase “farrow to finish” production systems. PMID:29522574

Monsters, Microbiology and Mathematics: The Epidemiology of a Zombie Apocalypse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Verran, J.; Crossley, M.; Carolan, K.; Jacobs, N.; Amos, M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this learning exercise was to harness current interest in zombies in order to educate audiences about the epidemiology of infectious disease. Participants in the activity were provided with an outbreak scenario, which they then used as the basis of play-based activities. By considering the mode and speed of transmission, size of…

Growth of white firs defoliated by Modoc budworm in northeastern California

Treesearch

George T. Ferrell

1980-01-01

Open-grown, pole-sized white firs defoliated by Modoc budwonn (Choristoneura viridis) in northeastern California in the years 1959-62 and 1973-75 suffered only minor growth reductions and topkilling compared with the effects that more protracted budworm outbreaks have had elsewhere on their conifer hosts. Growth index analysis indicated that the firs...

An outbreak of duck hepatitis A virus type 1 infection in Japan.

PubMed

Kamomae, Masahiro; Kameyama, Mamoru; Ishii, Jun; Nabe, Mikoto; Ogura, Yuji; Iseki, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Yu; Mase, Masaji

2017-05-23

In June 2015, a highly fatal and acute disease broke out in a duckling farm in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan. The birds exhibited poor growth, reduced movement, lying in a dorsal recumbent position, depression, lethargy, ataxia and opisthotonus, with a high mortality rate of approximately 76%. By performing a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers specific for duck hepatitis A virus type 1 (DHAV-1), we obtained the PCR products of a predicted size. The nucleotide sequences of the PCR products showed a >96% identity with that of the DHAV-1, HB02 strain, which was isolated in China. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the DHAV-1 virus has been isolated since its outbreak in Japan in 1963.

Controlling the last known cluster of Ebola virus disease - Liberia, January-February 2015.

PubMed

Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fallah, Mosoka; Sieh, Sonpon; Kollie, Karsor; Badio, Moses; Gray, Alvin; Dilah, Priscilla; Shannon, Marnijina; Duwor, Stanley; Ihekweazu, Chikwe; Cordier-Lassalle, Thierry; Cordier-Lasalle, Thierry; Shinde, Shivam A; Hamblion, Esther; Davies-Wayne, Gloria; Ratnesh, Murugan; Dye, Christopher; Yoder, Jonathan S; McElroy, Peter; Hoots, Brooke; Christie, Athalia; Vertefeuille, John; Olsen, Sonja J; Laney, A Scott; Neal, Joyce J; Yaemsiri, Sirin; Navin, Thomas R; Coulter, Stewart; Pordell, Paran; Lo, Terrence; Kinkade, Carl; Mahoney, Frank

2015-05-15

As one of the three West African countries highly affected by the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic, Liberia reported approximately 10,000 cases. The Ebola epidemic in Liberia was marked by intense urban transmission, multiple community outbreaks with source cases occurring in patients coming from the urban areas, and outbreaks in health care facilities (HCFs). This report, based on data from routine case investigations and contact tracing, describes efforts to stop the last known chain of Ebola transmission in Liberia. The index patient became ill on December 29, 2014, and the last of 21 associated cases was in a patient admitted into an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) on February 18, 2015. The chain of transmission was stopped because of early detection of new cases; identification, monitoring, and support of contacts in acceptable settings; effective triage within the health care system; and rapid isolation of symptomatic contacts. In addition, a "sector" approach, which divided Montserrado County into geographic units, facilitated the ability of response teams to rapidly respond to community needs. In the final stages of the outbreak, intensive coordination among partners and engagement of community leaders were needed to stop transmission in densely populated Montserrado County. A companion report describes the efforts to enhance infection prevention and control efforts in HCFs. After February 19, no additional clusters of Ebola cases have been detected in Liberia. On May 9, the World Health Organization declared the end of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia.

Weathering the storm: how lodgepole pine trees survive mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

PubMed

Erbilgin, Nadir; Cale, Jonathan A; Hussain, Altaf; Ishangulyyeva, Guncha; Klutsch, Jennifer G; Najar, Ahmed; Zhao, Shiyang

2017-06-01

Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America killed millions of lodgepole pine trees, leaving few survivors. However, the mechanism underlying the ability of trees to survive bark beetle outbreaks is unknown, but likely involve phytochemicals such as monoterpenes and fatty acids that can drive beetle aggregation and colonization on their hosts. Thus, we conducted a field survey of beetle-resistant lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees to retrospectively deduce whether these phytochemicals underlie their survival by comparing their chemistry to that of non-attacked trees in the same stands. We also compared beetle attack characteristics between resistant and beetle-killed trees. Beetle-killed trees had more beetle attacks and longer ovipositional galleries than resistant trees, which also lacked the larval establishment found in beetle-killed trees. Resistant trees contained high amounts of toxic and attraction-inhibitive compounds and low amounts of pheromone-precursor and synergist compounds. During beetle host aggregation and colonization, these compounds likely served three critical roles in tree survival. First, low amounts of pheromone-precursor (α-pinene) and synergist (mycrene, terpinolene) compounds reduced or prevented beetles from attracting conspecifics to residual trees. Second, high amounts of 4-allyanisole further inhibited beetle attraction to its pheromone. Finally, high amounts of toxic limonene, 3-carene, 4-allyanisole, α-linolenic acid, and linoleic acid inhibited beetle gallery establishment and oviposition. We conclude that the variation of chemotypic expression of local plant populations can have profound ecological consequences including survival during insect outbreaks.

Clostridium difficile contamination of health care workers' hands and its potential contribution to the spread of infection: Review of the literature.

PubMed

Jullian-Desayes, Ingrid; Landelle, Caroline; Mallaret, Marie-Reine; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Barbut, Frédéric

2017-01-01

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) can be transmitted from patient to patient by the hands of health care workers (HCWs); however, the relative importance of this route in the spread of C difficile in the hospital is currently unknown. Our aim was to review studies examining HCWs' hand carriage and its potential role in CDI transmission. First, English-speaking references addressing HCWs' hand sampling obtained from the PubMed database were reviewed. Second, C difficile outbreaks definitely or probably implicating HCWs were retrieved from the Outbreak Database Web site (www.outbreak-database.com). Finally, cases of C difficile occurring in HCWs after contact with an infected patient were retrieved from PubMed. A total of 11 studies dealing with HCWs' hand carriage were selected and reviewed. Between 0% and 59% of HCWs' hands were found contaminated with C difficile after caring for a patient with CDI. There were several differences between studies regarding site of hands sampling, timing after contact, and bacteriologic methods. Only 2 C difficile outbreaks implicating HCWs and 6 series of cases of transmission from patients to HCWs have been reported. This review shows that HCWs' hands could play an important role in the transmission of C difficile. Hand hygiene and reduction of environmental contamination are essential to control C difficile transmission. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

Current pathogenic Escherichia coli foodborne outbreak cases and therapy development.

PubMed

Yang, Shih-Chun; Lin, Chih-Hung; Aljuffali, Ibrahim A; Fang, Jia-You

2017-08-01

Food contamination by pathogenic microorganisms has been a serious public health problem and a cause of huge economic losses worldwide. Foodborne pathogenic Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination, such as that with E. coli O157 and O104, is very common, even in developed countries. Bacterial contamination may occur during any of the steps in the farm-to-table continuum from environmental, animal, or human sources and cause foodborne illness. To understand the causes of the foodborne outbreaks by E. coli and food-contamination prevention measures, we collected and investigated the past 10 years' worldwide reports of foodborne E. coli contamination cases. In the first half of this review article, we introduce the infection and symptoms of five major foodborne diarrheagenic E. coli pathotypes: enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC), Shiga toxin-producing E. coli/enterohemorrhagic E. coli (STEC/EHEC), Shigella/enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC), enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), and enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC). In the second half of this review article, we introduce the foodborne outbreak cases caused by E. coli in natural foods and food products. Finally, we discuss current developments that can be applied to control and prevent bacterial food contamination.

Disease outbreaks as vehicles for exploring 'engaged citizen' themes through a course on the history of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Senchina, David S

2017-01-01

Infectious diseases are potential catalysts for exploring 'engaged citizen' or socioscientific themes given their interwoven economic, political, scientific and social dimensions. This article describes how an undergraduate course on the history of infectious diseases was modified to explore the impact of two 'engaged citizen' themes (poverty and technology), and to consider the ramifications of those themes on past, present and future infectious disease outbreaks. Four outbreaks were used as the foundation for the course: plague (1350s), puerperal fever (1840s), cholera (1850s) and syphilis (1930s). The first part of the article describes the general course structure and the role of university-wide 'engaged citizen' themes in its semester-specific construction. The second part of the article demonstrates how poverty and technology 'threads' were explored in each of the four historical contexts, and subsequently how they were considered in current and future contexts; appendices with lesson suggestions are provided. The third and final part of the article discusses how this specific model might be more broadly applied to other microbiology instructional contexts. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Guillain-Barré syndrome and Zika virus outbreaks.

PubMed

Nascimento, Osvaldo J M; da Silva, Ivan R F

2017-10-01

Arboviruses have been associated with central and peripheral nervous system injuries, in special the flaviviruses. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), transverse myelitis, meningoencephalitis, ophthalmological manifestations, and other neurological complications have been recently associated to Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. In this review, we aim to analyze the epidemiological aspects, possible pathophysiology, and what we have learned about the clinical and laboratory findings, as well as treatment of patients with ZIKV-associated neurological complications. In the last decades, case series have suggested a possible link between flaviviruses and development of GBS. Recently, large outbreaks of ZIKV infection in Asia and the Americas have led to an increased incidence of GBS in these territories. Rapidly, several case reports and case series have reported an increase of all clinical forms and electrophysiological patterns of GBS, also including cases with associated central nervous system involvement. Finally, cases suggestive of acute transient polyneuritis, as well as acute and progressive postinfectious neuropathies associated to ZIKV infection have been reported, questioning the usually implicated mechanisms of neuronal injury. The recent ZIKV outbreaks have triggered the occurrence of a myriad of neurological manifestations likely associated to this arbovirosis, in special GBS and its variants.

Impact of changing the measles vaccine vial size on Niger's vaccine supply chain: a computational model

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many countries, such as Niger, are considering changing their vaccine vial size presentation and may want to evaluate the subsequent impact on their supply chains, the series of steps required to get vaccines from their manufacturers to patients. The measles vaccine is particularly important in Niger, a country prone to measles outbreaks. Methods We developed a detailed discrete event simulation model of the vaccine supply chain representing every vaccine, storage location, refrigerator, freezer, and transport device (e.g., cold trucks, 4 × 4 trucks, and vaccine carriers) in the Niger Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). Experiments simulated the impact of replacing the 10-dose measles vial size with 5-dose, 2-dose and 1-dose vial sizes. Results Switching from the 10-dose to the 5-dose, 2-dose and 1-dose vial sizes decreased the average availability of EPI vaccines for arriving patients from 83% to 82%, 81% and 78%, respectively for a 100% target population size. The switches also changed transport vehicle's utilization from a mean of 58% (range: 4-164%) to means of 59% (range: 4-164%), 62% (range: 4-175%), and 67% (range: 5-192%), respectively, between the regional and district stores, and from a mean of 160% (range: 83-300%) to means of 161% (range: 82-322%), 175% (range: 78-344%), and 198% (range: 88-402%), respectively, between the district to integrated health centres (IHC). The switch also changed district level storage utilization from a mean of 65% to means of 64%, 66% and 68% (range for all scenarios: 3-100%). Finally, accounting for vaccine administration, wastage, and disposal, replacing the 10-dose vial with the 5 or 1-dose vials would increase the cost per immunized patient from $0.47US to $0.71US and $1.26US, respectively. Conclusions The switch from the 10-dose measles vaccines to smaller vial sizes could overwhelm the capacities of many storage facilities and transport vehicles as well as increase the cost per vaccinated child. PMID:21635774

Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi.

PubMed

Kundrick, Avery; Huang, Zhuojie; Carran, Spencer; Kagoli, Matthew; Grais, Rebecca Freeman; Hurtado, Northan; Ferrari, Matthew

2018-06-15

Despite progress towards increasing global vaccination coverage, measles continues to be one of the leading, preventable causes of death among children worldwide. Whether and how to target sub-national areas for vaccination campaigns continues to remain a question. We analyzed three metrics for prioritizing target areas: vaccination coverage, susceptible birth cohort, and the effective reproductive ratio (R E ) in the context of the 2010 measles epidemic in Malawi. Using case-based surveillance data from the 2010 measles outbreak in Malawi, we estimated vaccination coverage from the proportion of cases reporting with a history of prior vaccination at the district and health facility catchment scale. Health facility catchments were defined as the set of locations closer to a given health facility than to any other. We combined these estimates with regional birth rates to estimate the size of the annual susceptible birth cohort. We also estimated the effective reproductive ratio, R E , at the health facility polygon scale based on the observed rate of exponential increase of the epidemic. We combined these estimates to identify spatial regions that would be of high priority for supplemental vaccination activities. The estimated vaccination coverage across all districts was 84%, but ranged from 61 to 99%. We found that 8 districts and 354 health facility catchments had estimated vaccination coverage below 80%. Areas that had highest birth cohort size were frequently large urban centers that had high vaccination coverage. The estimated R E ranged between 1 and 2.56. The ranking of districts and health facility catchments as priority areas varied depending on the measure used. Each metric for prioritization may result in discrete target areas for vaccination campaigns; thus, there are tradeoffs to choosing one metric over another. However, in some cases, certain areas may be prioritized by all three metrics. These areas should be treated with particular concern. Furthermore, the spatial scale at which each metric is calculated impacts the resulting prioritization and should also be considered when prioritizing areas for vaccination campaigns. These methods may be used to allocate effort for prophylactic campaigns or to prioritize response for outbreak response vaccination.

A study of risk factors associated with Newcastle disease epidemics in village free-range chickens in Uganda.

PubMed

Otim, M O; Kabagambe, E K; Mukiibi, G M; Christensen, H; Bisgaard, M

2007-01-01

A prospective study of risk factors associated with outbreaks of Newcastle disease (ND) in indigenous free-range chickens was carried out in three agro-ecological zones in eastern Uganda. Sixty households keeping chickens were randomly selected and studied from March 2004 to February 2005, covering rainy and dry seasons. Data on ND outbreaks, risk factors and flock dynamics were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire, while ND outbreaks were confirmed by haemagglutination inhibition test. Multivariate survival analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for Newcastle disease outbreaks. Although the survival time against ND was longer (> 100 days) in the dry compared to the rainy season, incidence in the two seasons was not significantly different (p > 0.05). None of the factors investigated was significantly associated with ND. However, purchasing of restocking chickens from the market and neighbourhood (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-3.60), the presence of migratory wild birds (HR = 1.70; 95% CI 0.65-4.48) and being in agro-ecological zone 1 (HR = 1.48; 95% CI 0.66-3.36) showed a positive but non-significant association with risk for ND. To understand the roles of other domestic poultry species in the epidemiology of ND in rural free-range chickens, virus isolation and molecular characterization of isolates in addition to more prospective cohort studies with a larger sample size and similarly long period of follow-up are needed.

Positive Network Assortativity of Influenza Vaccination at a High School: Implications for Outbreak Risk and Herd Immunity

PubMed Central

He, Jianping; Cao, Guohong; Rainey, Jeanette J.; Gao, Hongjiang; Uzicanin, Amra; Salathé, Marcel

2014-01-01

Schools are known to play a significant role in the spread of influenza. High vaccination coverage can reduce infectious disease spread within schools and the wider community through vaccine-induced immunity in vaccinated individuals and through the indirect effects afforded by herd immunity. In general, herd immunity is greatest when vaccination coverage is highest, but clusters of unvaccinated individuals can reduce herd immunity. Here, we empirically assess the extent of such clustering by measuring whether vaccinated individuals are randomly distributed or demonstrate positive assortativity across a United States high school contact network. Using computational models based on these empirical measurements, we further assess the impact of assortativity on influenza disease dynamics. We found that the contact network was positively assortative with respect to influenza vaccination: unvaccinated individuals tended to be in contact more often with other unvaccinated individuals than with vaccinated individuals, and these effects were most pronounced when we analyzed contact data collected over multiple days. Of note, unvaccinated males contributed substantially more than unvaccinated females towards the measured positive vaccination assortativity. Influenza simulation models using a positively assortative network resulted in larger average outbreak size, and outbreaks were more likely, compared to an otherwise identical network where vaccinated individuals were not clustered. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing heterogeneities in seasonal influenza vaccine uptake for prevention of large, protracted school-based outbreaks of influenza, in addition to continued efforts to increase overall vaccine coverage. PMID:24505274

Spatial dynamics of bar-headed geese migration in the context of H5N1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bourouiba, L.; Wu, Jianhong; Newman, S.; Takekawa, John Y.; Natdorj, T.; Batbayar, N.; Bishop, C.M.; Hawkes, L.A.; Butler, P.J.; Wikelski, M.

2010-01-01

Virulent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) since 2005 have raised the question about the roles of migratory and wild birds in the transmission of HPAI. Despite increased monitoring, the role of wild waterfowl as the primary source of the highly pathogenic H5N1 has not been clearly established. The impact of outbreaks of HPAI among species of wild birds which are already endangered can nevertheless have devastating consequences for the local and non-local ecology where migratory species are established. Understanding the entangled dynamics of migration and the disease dynamics will be key to prevention and control measures for humans, migratory birds and poultry. Here, we present a spatial dynamic model of seasonal migration derived from first principles and linking the local dynamics during migratory stopovers to the larger scale migratory routes. We discuss the effect of repeated epizootic at specific migratory stopovers for bar-headed geese (Anser indicus). We find that repeated deadly outbreaks of H5N1 on stopovers during the autumn migration of bar-headed geese could lead to a larger reduction in the size of the equilibrium bird population compared with that obtained after repeated outbreaks during the spring migration. However, the opposite is true during the first few years of transition to such an equilibrium. The age-maturation process of juvenile birds which are more susceptible to H5N1 reinforces this result.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Genotypic Resistance Tests Sequences Reveal the Role of Marginalized Populations in HIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Shilaih, Mohaned; Marzel, Alex; Yang, Wan Lin; Scherrer, Alexandra U.; Schüpbach, Jörg; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Hirsch, Hans H.; Aubert, Vincent; Cavassini, Matthias; Klimkait, Thomas; Vernazza, Pietro L.; Bernasconi, Enos; Furrer, Hansjakob; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Kouyos, Roger; Battegay, Manuel; Braun, Dominique; Bucher, Heiner; Burton-Jeangros, Claudine; Calmy, Alexandra; Dollenmaier, Günter; Egger, Matthias; Elzi, Luigia; Fehr, Jan; Fellay, Jaque; Fux, Christoph; Gorgievski, Meri; Haerry, David; Hasse, Barbara; Hoffmann, Matthias; Hösli, Irene; Kahlert, Christian; Kaiser, Laurent; Keiser, Olivia; Kovari, Helen; Ledergerber, Bruno; Martinetti, Gladys; de Tejada, Begoña Martinez; Marzolini, Catia; Metzner, Karin; Müller, Nicolas; Nadal, David; Nicca, Dunja; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Rauch, Andre; Regenass, Stephan; Rudin, Christoph; Schöni-Affolter, Franziska; Schmid, Patrick; Speck, Roberto; Stöckle, Marcel; Tarr, Philip; Trkola, Alexandra; Weber, Reiner

2016-01-01

Targeting hard-to-reach/marginalized populations is essential for preventing HIV-transmission. A unique opportunity to identify such populations in Switzerland is provided by a database of all genotypic-resistance-tests from Switzerland, including both sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and non-cohort sequences. A phylogenetic tree was built using 11,127 SHCS and 2,875 Swiss non-SHCS sequences. Demographics were imputed for non-SHCS patients using a phylogenetic proximity approach. Factors associated with non-cohort outbreaks were determined using logistic regression. Non-B subtype (univariable odds-ratio (OR): 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8–2.1), female gender (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4–1.7), black ethnicity (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7–2.1) and heterosexual transmission group (OR:1.8; 95% CI: 1.6–2.0), were all associated with underrepresentation in the SHCS. We found 344 purely non-SHCS transmission clusters, however, these outbreaks were small (median 2, maximum 7 patients) with a strong overlap with the SHCS’. 65% of non-SHCS sequences were part of clusters composed of >= 50% SHCS sequences. Our data suggests that marginalized-populations are underrepresented in the SHCS. However, the limited size of outbreaks among non-SHCS patients in-care implies that no major HIV outbreak in Switzerland was missed by the SHCS surveillance. This study demonstrates the potential of sequence data to assess and extend the scope of infectious-disease surveillance. PMID:27297284

Genotypic Resistance Tests Sequences Reveal the Role of Marginalized Populations in HIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland.

PubMed

Shilaih, Mohaned; Marzel, Alex; Yang, Wan Lin; Scherrer, Alexandra U; Schüpbach, Jörg; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Hirsch, Hans H; Aubert, Vincent; Cavassini, Matthias; Klimkait, Thomas; Vernazza, Pietro L; Bernasconi, Enos; Furrer, Hansjakob; Günthard, Huldrych F; Kouyos, Roger

2016-06-14

Targeting hard-to-reach/marginalized populations is essential for preventing HIV-transmission. A unique opportunity to identify such populations in Switzerland is provided by a database of all genotypic-resistance-tests from Switzerland, including both sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and non-cohort sequences. A phylogenetic tree was built using 11,127 SHCS and 2,875 Swiss non-SHCS sequences. Demographics were imputed for non-SHCS patients using a phylogenetic proximity approach. Factors associated with non-cohort outbreaks were determined using logistic regression. Non-B subtype (univariable odds-ratio (OR): 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-2.1), female gender (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4-1.7), black ethnicity (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.1) and heterosexual transmission group (OR:1.8; 95% CI: 1.6-2.0), were all associated with underrepresentation in the SHCS. We found 344 purely non-SHCS transmission clusters, however, these outbreaks were small (median 2, maximum 7 patients) with a strong overlap with the SHCS'. 65% of non-SHCS sequences were part of clusters composed of >= 50% SHCS sequences. Our data suggests that marginalized-populations are underrepresented in the SHCS. However, the limited size of outbreaks among non-SHCS patients in-care implies that no major HIV outbreak in Switzerland was missed by the SHCS surveillance. This study demonstrates the potential of sequence data to assess and extend the scope of infectious-disease surveillance.

[Hepatitis: a longstanding companion in human history].

PubMed

Craxi, Lucia

2012-03-01

Hepatitis has gone along with human history since its origins, due to its prompt identifiability linked to jaundice as a symptom. Written evidence of outbreaks of epidemic jaundice can be tracked back a few millenniums before Christ. Unavoidable confusion arises due to the overlap of different sources possibly linked to different aetiologies, identified over time as epidemic jaundice (HAV or HEV hepatitis?) and serum hepatitis (HBV or HCV hepatitis?). The journey that brought to recognize viruses as the main cause of jaundice was long and started midway during the last century, when the infectious hypothesis, which had taken place step by step, was finally confirmed by epidemiological investigations of an outbreak occurring in the US army in 1942, after a yellow fever immunization campaign. Further research identified two clinically different types of hepatitis, called for the first time hepatitis A and hepatitis B.

Forest health restoration in south-central Alaska: a problem analysis.

Treesearch

Darrell W. Ross; Gary E. Daterman; Jerry L. Boughton; Thomas M. Quigley

2001-01-01

A spruce beetle outbreak of unprecedented size and intensity killed most of the spruce trees on millions of acres of forest land in south-central Alaska in the 1990s. The tree mortality is affecting every component of the ecosystem, including the socioeconomic culture dependent on the resources of these vast forests. Based on information obtained through workshops and...

Pyemotes herfsi (Acari: Pyemotidae), a mite new to North America as the cause of bite outbreaks

Treesearch

Alberto B. Broce; Ludek Zurek; James A. Kalisch; Robert Brown; David L. Keith; David Gordon; Janis Geodeke; Cal Welbourn; John Moser; Ronald Ochoa; Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner; Fuyuen Yip; Jacob Weber

2006-01-01

High incidences of red, itching, and painful welts on people in the midwestern United States led to the discovery of a European species of mite, Pyemotes herfsi (Oudemans) (Acari: Pyemotidae), preying on gall-making midge larvae on oak leaves. The mites' great reproductive potential, small size, and high capacity for dispersal by wind make them...

Water-dispersible silver nanoparticles-decorated carbon nanomaterials: synthesis and enhanced antibacterial activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinh, Ngo Xuan; Chi, Do Thi; Lan, Nguyen Thi; Lan, Hoang; Van Tuan, Hoang; Van Quy, Nguyen; Phan, Vu Ngoc; Huy, Tran Quang; Le, Anh-Tuan

2015-04-01

In recent years, a growing number of outbreak of infectious diseases have emerged all over the world. The outbreak of re-emerging and emerging infectious diseases is a considerable burden on global economies and public health. Nano-antimicrobials have been studied as an effective solution for the prevention of infectious diseases. In this work, we demonstrated a modified photochemical approach for the preparation of carbon nanotubes-silver nanoparticles (CNTs-Ag) and graphene oxide-silver nanoparticles (GO-Ag) nanocomposites, which can be stably dispersible in aqueous solution. The formation of silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) on the functionalized CNTs and GO nanosheets was analyzed by X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy and UV-Vis measurements. These analyses indicated that the average particle sizes of Ag-NPs deposited on GO/CNTs nanostructures were ~6-7 nm with nearly uniform size distribution. Moreover, these nanocomposites were found to exhibit enhanced antibacterial activity against two strains of infectious bacteria including Gram-negative Escherichia coli and Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus bacteria as compared to bare Ag-NPs. Our obtained studies showed a high potential of GO-Ag and CNTs-Ag nanocomposites as effective and long-term disinfection solution to eliminate infectious bacterial pathogens.

Outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium 44 related to egg consumption.

PubMed

Dyda, Amalie; Hundy, Rebecca; Moffatt, Cameron R M; Cameron, Scott

2009-12-01

ACT Health investigated an outbreak of gastroenteritis associated with a local restaurant in December 2008. The infecting agent was Salmonella serotype Typhimurium phage type 44. A case control study was conducted to identify the source of infection. A total of 22 cases and 9 controls were recruited to take part in the study. Both poached eggs (odds ratio [OR] 42.00) and hollandaise sauce (OR 19.00) had elevated odds ratios that were statistically significant. The major limitation of the study was the small sample size and small number of controls. Despite this, a strong association with illness and consumption of eggs and hollandaise sauce was detected and this was further supported by environmental evidence. The investigation concluded that the cause of the outbreak was putatively contaminated eggs, either on their own or as an ingredient used in hollandaise sauce. The investigation and control measures led to an improvement in hygiene practices at the restaurant and contributed to the voluntary recall of the contaminated batch of eggs from the Australian Capital Territory. The results of the study also build upon other evidence that egg-related salmonellosis is now common in Australia and attention to commercial practices at production and processing is overdue.

Inferring modes of colonization for pest species using heterozygosity comparisons and a shared-allele test.

PubMed

Sved, J A; Yu, H; Dominiak, B; Gilchrist, A S

2003-02-01

Long-range dispersal of a species may involve either a single long-distance movement from a core population or spreading via unobserved intermediate populations. Where the new populations originate as small propagules, genetic drift may be extreme and gene frequency or assignment methods may not prove useful in determining the relation between the core population and outbreak samples. We describe computationally simple resampling methods for use in this situation to distinguish between the different modes of dispersal. First, estimates of heterozygosity can be used to test for direct sampling from the core population and to estimate the effective size of intermediate populations. Second, a test of sharing of alleles, particularly rare alleles, can show whether outbreaks are related to each other rather than arriving as independent samples from the core population. The shared-allele statistic also serves as a genetic distance measure that is appropriate for small samples. These methods were applied to data on a fruit fly pest species, Bactrocera tryoni, which is quarantined from some horticultural areas in Australia. We concluded that the outbreaks in the quarantine zone came from a heterogeneous set of genetically differentiated populations, possibly ones that overwinter in the vicinity of the quarantine zone.

Discrete Event Modeling and Massively Parallel Execution of Epidemic Outbreak Phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2011-01-01

In complex phenomena such as epidemiological outbreaks, the intensity of inherent feedback effects and the significant role of transients in the dynamics make simulation the only effective method for proactive, reactive or post-facto analysis. The spatial scale, runtime speed, and behavioral detail needed in detailed simulations of epidemic outbreaks make it necessary to use large-scale parallel processing. Here, an optimistic parallel execution of a new discrete event formulation of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic propagation is presented to facilitate in dramatically increasing the fidelity and speed by which epidemiological simulations can be performed. Rollback support needed during optimistic parallelmore » execution is achieved by combining reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup of over 5,500 and other runtime performance metrics of the system are observed with weak-scaling execution on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability with a weak-scaling speedup of over 10,000 is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes exceeding several hundreds of millions of individuals in the largest cases are successfully exercised to verify model scalability.« less

Use of Bioclimatic Factors to Determine Potential Niche of Vaccinia Virus, an Emerging and Zoonotic Pathogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiner, C. A.; Nakazawa, Y.

2017-12-01

Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data making public health control of emerging pathogens challenging. In lieu of opportunities to collect more data from larger outbreaks or formal epidemiological studies, new analytical strategies, merging case data with publically available datasets, can be used to understand transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data we demonstrate one such approach. Using an Ecological Niche Model (ENM), we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected South American countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important climatic factors in determining its transmission. The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, two out of five Colombian outbreaks and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease, and regions that are potentially at risk for it, in spite of the paucity of critical data. Policy and methods for the control of infectious diseases often use a reactionary model, addressing diseases only after significant impact on human health has ensued. Here, we provide a means to predict where the disease is likely to appear, providing a map for directed intervention.

Spreading of Cholera through Surface Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2009-12-01

Cholera epidemics are still a major public health concern to date in many areas of the world. In order to understand and forecast cholera outbreaks, one of the most important factors is the role played by the environmental matrix in which the disease spreads. We study how river networks, acting as environmental corridors for pathogens, affect the spreading of cholera epidemics. The environmental matrix in which the disease spreads is constituted by different human communities and their hydrologic interconnections. Each community is characterized by its spatial position, population size, water resources availability and hygiene conditions. By implementing a spatially explicit cholera model we seek the effects on epidemic dynamics of: i) the topology and metrics of the pathogens pathways that connect different communities; ii) the spatial distribution of the population size; and iii) the spatial distributions and quality of surface water resources and public health conditions, and how they vary with population size. The model has been applied to study the space-time evolution of a well documented cholera epidemic occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The epidemic lasted for two years and involved about 140,000 confirmed cholera cases. The model does well in reproducing the distribution of the cholera cases during the two outbreaks as well as their spatial spreading. We further extend the model by deriving the speed of propagation of traveling fronts in the case of uniformly distributed systems for different topologies: one and two dimensional lattices and river networks. The derivation of the spreading celerity proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. The conditions are sought by comparison between spreading and disease timescales. Consider a cholera epidemic that starts from a point and spreads throughout a finite size system, it is possible to identify two different timescales: i) the spreading timescale, that is the time needed for the disease to spread and involve all the communities in the system; and ii) the epidemic timescale, defined by the duration of the epidemic in a single community. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of classical space-implicit compartmental models.

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics. PMID:25923411

Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

PubMed

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-04-29

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

Public health response to a measles outbreak on a university campus in Australia, 2015.

PubMed

Smith, J; Banu, S; Young, M; Francis, D; Langfeldt, K; Jarvinen, K

2018-02-01

This report describes the effective public health response to a measles outbreak involving a university campus in Brisbane, Australia. Eleven cases in total were notified, mostly university students. The public health response included targeted measles vaccination clinics which were established on campus and focused on student groups most likely to have been exposed. The size of the university population, social interaction between students on and off campus, as well as limited vaccination records for the university community presented challenges for the control of this extremely infectious illness. We recommend domestic students ensure vaccinations are current prior to matriculation. Immunisation information should be included in university student enrolment packs. Incoming international students should ensure routine vaccinations are up-to-date prior to arrival in Australia, thereby reducing the risk of importation of measles and other infectious diseases.

Cholera Outbreaks in Nigeria Are Associated with Multidrug Resistant Atypical El Tor and Non-O1/Non-O139 Vibrio cholerae

PubMed Central

Marin, Michel A.; Thompson, Cristiane C.; Freitas, Fernanda S.; Fonseca, Erica L.; Aboderin, A. Oladipo; Zailani, Sambo B.; Quartey, Naa Kwarley E.; Okeke, Iruka N.; Vicente, Ana Carolina P.

2013-01-01

Background The current millennium has seen a steep rise in the number, size and case-fatalities of cholera outbreaks in many African countries. Over 40,000 cases of cholera were reported from Nigeria in 2010. Variants of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor biotype have emerged but very little is known about strains causing cholera outbreaks in West Africa, which is crucial for the implementation of interventions to control epidemic cholera. Methodology/Principal Findings V. cholerae isolates from outbreaks of acute watery diarrhea in Nigeria from December, 2009 to October, 2010 were identified by standard culture methods. Fifteen O1 and five non-O1/non-O139 strains were analyzed; PCR and sequencing targeted regions associated with virulence, resistance and biotype were performed. We also studied genetic interrelatedness among the strains by multilocus sequence analysis and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. The antibiotic susceptibility was tested by the disk diffusion method and E-test. We found that multidrug resistant atypical El Tor strains, with reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and chloramphenicol, characterized by the presence of the SXT element, and gyrA Ser83Ile/parC Ser85Leu alleles as well CTX phage and TCP cluster characterized by rstR ElTor, ctxB-7 and tcpA CIRS alleles, respectively, were largely responsible for cholera outbreaks in 2009 and 2010. We also identified and characterized a V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139 lineage from cholera-like diarrhea cases in Nigeria. Conclusions/Significance The recent Nigeria outbreaks have been determined by multidrug resistant atypical El Tor and non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae strains, and it seems that the typical El Tor, from the beginning of seventh cholera pandemic, is no longer epidemic/endemic in this country. This scenario is similar to the East Africa, Asia and Caribbean countries. The detection of a highly virulent, antimicrobial resistant lineage in Nigeria is worrisome and points to a need for vaccine-based control of the disease. This study has also revealed the putative importance of non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae in diarrheal disease in Nigeria. PMID:23459673

Identification and molecular epidemiology of nosocomial outbreaks due to Burkholderia cepacia in cystic fibrosis patients of Masih Daneshvary Hospital, Iran.

PubMed

Dallal, M M Soltan; Telefian, C F; Hajia, M; Kalantar, E; Dehkharghani, A R Dolatyar; Forushani, A Rahimi; Khanbabaei, Q; Mobarhan, M; Farzami, M R

2014-03-01

B. cepacia complex have emerged as an important opportunistic pathogen in hospitalized and immunocompromised patients. Small hospital outbreaks are frequent and are usually due to a single contaminated environmental source. In this study we were going to investigate the role of B.cepacia complex in those patients suspected to involve with cystic fibrosis and evaluate responsible types in Masih Daneshvary Hospital. One hundred specimens were collected from all admitted patients who were suspected to cystic fibrosis to Masih Daneshvary hospital during one year April 2011 till end of March 2012. All were culture and identified standard procedure. All samples were checked by API system (API20NE) and by specific PCR method for genus Bulkhorderia and Bcc as well. Identified strains were finally tested by PFGE system to identifying specific involving pulse-types. . Isolation and identification methods revealed 5 specimens were B.cepasia, The frequency of the cystic fibrosis detected at this study was lower than other similar study previously reported. All these isolates showed similar pattern by PFGE standard protocol that may have spread from a single source and could not be attributed to cross infections from patient to patients. Application of PFGE and identification of pulse-type is a potential tool to enhance the investigation of apparent nosocomial outbreaks of B.cepacia. However it needs to be adjusted with environmental findings. Implementation of educational programs and adherence to infection control policies are obviously the main element for complete elimination of an outbreak.

GOST: A generic ordinal sequential trial design for a treatment trial in an emerging pandemic.

PubMed

Whitehead, John; Horby, Peter

2017-03-01

Conducting clinical trials to assess experimental treatments for potentially pandemic infectious diseases is challenging. Since many outbreaks of infectious diseases last only six to eight weeks, there is a need for trial designs that can be implemented rapidly in the face of uncertainty. Outbreaks are sudden and unpredictable and so it is essential that as much planning as possible takes place in advance. Statistical aspects of such trial designs should be evaluated and discussed in readiness for implementation. This paper proposes a generic ordinal sequential trial design (GOST) for a randomised clinical trial comparing an experimental treatment for an emerging infectious disease with standard care. The design is intended as an off-the-shelf, ready-to-use robust and flexible option. The primary endpoint is a categorisation of patient outcome according to an ordinal scale. A sequential approach is adopted, stopping as soon as it is clear that the experimental treatment has an advantage or that sufficient advantage is unlikely to be detected. The properties of the design are evaluated using large-sample theory and verified for moderate sized samples using simulation. The trial is powered to detect a generic clinically relevant difference: namely an odds ratio of 2 for better rather than worse outcomes. Total sample sizes (across both treatments) of between 150 and 300 patients prove to be adequate in many cases, but the precise value depends on both the magnitude of the treatment advantage and the nature of the ordinal scale. An advantage of the approach is that any erroneous assumptions made at the design stage about the proportion of patients falling into each outcome category have little effect on the error probabilities of the study, although they can lead to inaccurate forecasts of sample size. It is important and feasible to pre-determine many of the statistical aspects of an efficient trial design in advance of a disease outbreak. The design can then be tailored to the specific disease under study once its nature is better understood.

Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks and Events - Three Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2017.

PubMed

Alleman, Mary M; Chitale, Rohit; Burns, Cara C; Iber, Jane; Dybdahl-Sissoko, Naomi; Chen, Qi; Van Koko, Djo-Roy; Ewetola, Raimi; Riziki, Yogolelo; Kavunga-Membo, Hugo; Dah, Cheikh; Andriamihantanirina, Rija

2018-03-16

The last confirmed wild poliovirus (WPV) case in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had paralysis onset in December 2011 (1). DRC has had cases of vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) documented since 2004 (Table 1) (1-6). After an outbreak of 30 circulating VDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) cases during 2011-2012, only five VDPV2 cases were reported during 2013-2016 (Table 1) (1-6). VDPVs can emerge from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV types 1, 2, or 3; Sabin) polioviruses that have genetically mutated resulting in reversion to neurovirulence. This process occurs during extensive person-to-person transmission in populations with low immunity or after extended replication in the intestines of immune-deficient persons following vaccination (1-6). During 2017 (as of March 8, 2018), 25 VDPV cases were reported in three provinces in DRC: in Tanganyika province, an emergence with one VDPV2 case (pending final classification) in Kabalo health zone and an emergence with one ambiguous VDPV type 1 (aVDPV1) case in Ankoro health zone; in Maniema province, an emergence with two cVDPV2 cases; and in Haut Lomami province, an emergence with 20 cVDPV2 cases that originated in Haut Lomami province and later spread to Tanganyika province (hereafter referred to as the Haut Lomami outbreak area) and an emergence with one aVDPV type 2 (aVDPV2) case in Lwamba health zone (Table 1) (Figure) (6). Outbreak response supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) were conducted during June-December 2017 (Table 2) (6). Because of limitations in surveillance and suboptimal SIA quality and geographic scope, cVDPV2 circulation is likely continuing in 2018, requiring additional SIAs. DRC health officials and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners are increasing human and financial resources to improve all aspects of outbreak response.

Increased efficiency in the second-hand tire trade provides opportunity for dengue control.

PubMed

Pliego Pliego, Emilene; Velázquez-Castro, Jorge; Eichhorn, Markus P; Fraguela Collar, Andrés

2018-01-21

Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of its vector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as a factor in this process because they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs and larvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between rural areas with dengue and disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise to outbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work we sought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, in particular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks through vertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We also aimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires, improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures the dynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account the movement and storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series of scenarios in which a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area via movement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing the likelihood of a dengue outbreak. A persistent disease state can be induced regardless of whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic state can be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulation of tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue fever using a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates the importance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of dengue fever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue to disease-free areas. We propose that reduction of tire storage time and control of their movement can play a crucial role in containing dengue outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Utilizing qualitative methods in survey design: examining Texas cattle producers' intent to participate in foot-and-mouth disease detection and control.

PubMed

Delgado, Amy H; Norby, Bo; Dean, Wesley R; McIntosh, W Alex; Scott, H Morgan

2012-02-01

The effective control of an outbreak of a highly contagious disease such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United States will require a strong partnership between the animal agriculture industry and the government. However, because of the diverse number of economic, social, and psychological influences affecting livestock producers, their complete cooperation during an outbreak may not be assured. We conducted interviews with 40 individuals involved in the Texas cattle industry in order to identify specific behaviors where producer participation or compliance may be reduced. Through qualitative analysis of these interviews, we identified specific factors which the participants suggested would influence producer behavior in regard to FMD detection and control. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as an initial guide, we developed an expanded theoretical framework in order to allow for the development of a questionnaire and further evaluation of the relative importance of the relationships indicated in the framework. A 2-day stakeholder workshop was used to develop and critique the final survey instruments. The behaviors which we identified where producer compliance may be reduced included requesting veterinary examination of cattle with clinical signs of FMD either before or during an outbreak of FMD, gathering and holding cattle at the date and time requested by veterinary authorities, and maintaining cattle in their current location during an outbreak of FMD. In addition, we identified additional factors which may influence producers' behavior including risk perception, trust in other producers and regulatory agencies, and moral norms. The theoretical frameworks presented in this paper can be used during an outbreak to assess barriers to and social pressures for producer compliance, prioritize the results in terms of their effects on behavior, and improve and better target risk communication strategies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

2014-01-01

The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

[Varicella vaccine effectiveness in schoolchildren in outbreaks in a semi-urban area].

PubMed

Romera-Guirado, F J; Molina-Salas, Y; Pérez-Martín, J J; Ruzafa-Martínez, M

2016-01-01

To estimate the effectiveness of the varicella vaccine in school outbreaks during the academic year 2009-2010. Retrospective cohort study in public day-care centers and/or schools in an area in the region of Murcia. Spain. The participants were all children of 1 to 12 years who were in the same classroom where there was an outbreak of varicella. The main measurements were the sociodemographic, clinical and vaccination data, as well as variables related to varicella disease obtained through a questionnaire self-completed by parents, and from the computerized regional immunization registry (VACUSAN). A total of 51 varicella outbreaks were detected, with a median of 3 cases per outbreak at both educational levels. The overall vaccination coverage was 10.7% (95% CI 8.63 to 13.18), always being higher in Spanish schoolchildren versus foreign (OR: 21.21, 95% CI: 2.92 to 153.92, P<.001). Discrepancies were found between the vaccine questionnaire data and vaccination program (kappa=0.50, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.58, P<.001). According to VACUSAN, the overall attack rate was 59.7 (95% CI: 55.82 to 63.43) in unvaccinated and 6.5 (95% CI: 2.54 to 15.45) in vaccinated children. An overall effectiveness of 89.1% (95% CI: 74.55 to 95.35) and 100% was obtained for 1 and 2 doses of vaccine, respectively. There is a high effectiveness of varicella vaccine, emphasizing that the administration of two doses of vaccine produces an adequate and optimal protection against varicella disease. A discrepancy was found between the information provided by parents and official records. Finally, there was a lower vaccination coverage in the immigrant community. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

High Resolution Typing by Whole Genome Mapping Enables Discrimination of LA-MRSA (CC398) Strains and Identification of Transmission Events

PubMed Central

Bosch, Thijs; Verkade, Erwin; van Luit, Martijn; Pot, Bruno; Vauterin, Paul; Burggrave, Ronald; Savelkoul, Paul; Kluytmans, Jan; Schouls, Leo

2013-01-01

After its emergence in 2003, a livestock-associated (LA-)MRSA clade (CC398) has caused an impressive increase in the number of isolates submitted for the Dutch national MRSA surveillance and now comprises 40% of all isolates. The currently used molecular typing techniques have limited discriminatory power for this MRSA clade, which hampers studies on the origin and transmission routes. Recently, a new molecular analysis technique named whole genome mapping was introduced. This method creates high-resolution, ordered whole genome restriction maps that may have potential for strain typing. In this study, we assessed and validated the capability of whole genome mapping to differentiate LA-MRSA isolates. Multiple validation experiments showed that whole genome mapping produced highly reproducible results. Assessment of the technique on two well-documented MRSA outbreaks showed that whole genome mapping was able to confirm one outbreak, but revealed major differences between the maps of a second, indicating that not all isolates belonged to this outbreak. Whole genome mapping of LA-MRSA isolates that were epidemiologically unlinked provided a much higher discriminatory power than spa-typing or MLVA. In contrast, maps created from LA-MRSA isolates obtained during a proven LA-MRSA outbreak were nearly indistinguishable showing that transmission of LA-MRSA can be detected by whole genome mapping. Finally, whole genome maps of LA-MRSA isolates originating from two unrelated veterinarians and their household members showed that veterinarians may carry and transmit different LA-MRSA strains at the same time. No such conclusions could be drawn based spa-typing and MLVA. Although PFGE seems to be suitable for molecular typing of LA-MRSA, WGM provides a much higher discriminatory power. Furthermore, whole genome mapping can provide a comparison with other maps within 2 days after the bacterial culture is received, making it suitable to investigate transmission events and outbreaks caused by LA-MRSA. PMID:23805225

Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2018-01-30

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Public perception and risk communication in regard to bioterrorism against animals and plants.

PubMed

Pearson, G S

2006-04-01

This paper examines the total international prohibition on the use of disease to attack humans, animals and plants, noting that in the past several countries had developed programmes for attacks on animals and plants as well as humans. Current activities undertaken by intergovernmental organisations - the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)--to counter the threat of attacks on humans, animals and plants are examined. Effective countermeasures to deliberate attacks need to be developed in harmony with existing measures to control natural or accidental outbreaks of disease. Finally the paper assesses the risk and the public perception of it, and considers what risk communication is needed and to whom. Clear mandates are needed for the FAO and OIE to be prepared to deal with outbreaks of disease, and with contamination of the food supply chain, whether accidental or intentional.

Backward Bifurcation in a Cholera Model: A Case Study of Outbreak in Zimbabwe and Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sandeep; Kumari, Nitu

In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when R0 < 1. The existence of backward bifurcation implies that making R0 < 1 is not enough for disease eradication. This, in turn, makes it difficult to control the spread of cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when R0 > 1. The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study.

Local and global epidemic outbreaks in populations moving in inhomogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscarino, Arturo; Fortuna, Luigi; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro

2014-10-01

We study disease spreading in a system of agents moving in a space where the force of infection is not homogeneous. Agents are random walkers that additionally execute long-distance jumps, and the plane in which they move is divided into two regions where the force of infection takes different values. We show the onset of a local epidemic threshold and a global one and explain them in terms of mean-field approximations. We also elucidate the critical role of the agent velocity, jump probability, and density parameters in achieving the conditions for local and global outbreaks. Finally, we show that the results are independent of the specific microscopic rules adopted for agent motion, since a similar behavior is also observed for the distribution of agent velocity based on a truncated power law, which is a model often used to fit real data on motion patterns of animals and humans.

Contract Support and Facilitation of Epidemic Outbreak Surveillance (EOS) Program Final Operating Capability (FOC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

Community Acquired Pneumonia . The principal investigator is William Weisburg, Ph.D. of Nanogen, and the Medical College of Wisconsin (MCW) is a...captures the most important viruses involved in community - acquired respiratory infections: 1. Influenza A (fluA) 2. Influenza B (fluB) 3. Respiratory...Adenovirus subtype 4, Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, Human Parainfluenza Virus 2, Human Parainfluenza Virus 3, Human Metapneumovirus, Streptococcus pneumonia

The use of a geographic information system to identify a dairy goat farm as the most likely source of an urban Q-fever outbreak.

PubMed

Schimmer, Barbara; Ter Schegget, Ronald; Wegdam, Marjolijn; Züchner, Lothar; de Bruin, Arnout; Schneeberger, Peter M; Veenstra, Thijs; Vellema, Piet; van der Hoek, Wim

2010-03-16

A Q-fever outbreak occurred in an urban area in the south of the Netherlands in May 2008. The distribution and timing of cases suggested a common source. We studied the spatial relationship between the residence locations of human cases and nearby small ruminant farms, of which one dairy goat farm had experienced abortions due to Q-fever since mid April 2008. A generic geographic information system (GIS) was used to develop a method for source detection in the still evolving major epidemic of Q-fever in the Netherlands. All notified Q-fever cases in the area were interviewed. Postal codes of cases and of small ruminant farms (size >40 animals) located within 5 kilometres of the cluster area were geo-referenced as point locations in a GIS-model. For each farm, attack rates and relative risks were calculated for 5 concentric zones adding 1 kilometre at a time, using the 5-10 kilometres zone as reference. These data were linked to the results of veterinary investigations. Persons living within 2 kilometres of an affected dairy goat farm (>400 animals) had a much higher risk for Q-fever than those living more than 5 kilometres away (Relative risk 31.1 [95% CI 16.4-59.1]). The study supported the hypothesis that a single dairy goat farm was the source of the human outbreak. GIS-based attack rate analysis is a promising tool for source detection in outbreaks of human Q-fever.

Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Huaiyu; Huang, Shanqian

Dengue transmission in urban areas is strongly influenced by a range of biological and environmental factors, yet the key drivers still need further exploration. To better understand mechanisms of environment–mosquito–urban dengue transmission, we propose an empirical model parameterized and cross-validated from a unique dataset including viral gene sequences, vector dynamics and human dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, together with a 36-year urban environmental change maps investigated by spatiotemporal satellite image fusion. The dengue epidemics in Guangzhou are highly episodic and were not associated with annual rainfall over time. Our results indicate that urban environmental changes, especially variations in surface areamore » covered by water in urban areas, can substantially alter the virus population and dengue transmission. The recent severe dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou may be due to the surge in an artificial lake construction, which could increase infection force between vector (mainly Aedes albopictus) and host when urban water area significantly increased. Impacts of urban environmental change on dengue dynamics may not have been thoroughly investigated in the past studies and more work needs to be done to better understand the consequences of urbanization processes in our changing world. - Highlights: • Urban dengue outbreak is associated with water area in Guangzhou, 1978–2014. • Surface water area can alter population size of dengue virus in urban area. • Urban dengue outbreak is not associated with annual rainfall in Guangzhou. • Spatiotemporal satellite image fusion can investigate urban environmental change. • Urban environmental change could induce virus, vector, and dengue epidemic change.« less

Laboratory-Based Prospective Surveillance for Community Outbreaks of Shigella spp. in Argentina

PubMed Central

Viñas, María R.; Tuduri, Ezequiel; Galar, Alicia; Yih, Katherine; Pichel, Mariana; Stelling, John; Brengi, Silvina P.; Della Gaspera, Anabella; van der Ploeg, Claudia; Bruno, Susana; Rogé, Ariel; Caffer, María I.; Kulldorff, Martin; Galas, Marcelo

2013-01-01

Background To implement effective control measures, timely outbreak detection is essential. Shigella is the most common cause of bacterial diarrhea in Argentina. Highly resistant clones of Shigella have emerged, and outbreaks have been recognized in closed settings and in whole communities. We hereby report our experience with an evolving, integrated, laboratory-based, near real-time surveillance system operating in six contiguous provinces of Argentina during April 2009 to March 2012. Methodology To detect localized shigellosis outbreaks timely, we used the prospective space-time permutation scan statistic algorithm of SaTScan, embedded in WHONET software. Twenty three laboratories sent updated Shigella data on a weekly basis to the National Reference Laboratory. Cluster detection analysis was performed at several taxonomic levels: for all Shigella spp., for serotypes within species and for antimicrobial resistance phenotypes within species. Shigella isolates associated with statistically significant signals (clusters in time/space with recurrence interval ≥365 days) were subtyped by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) using PulseNet protocols. Principal Findings In three years of active surveillance, our system detected 32 statistically significant events, 26 of them identified before hospital staff was aware of any unexpected increase in the number of Shigella isolates. Twenty-six signals were investigated by PFGE, which confirmed a close relationship among the isolates for 22 events (84.6%). Seven events were investigated epidemiologically, which revealed links among the patients. Seventeen events were found at the resistance profile level. The system detected events of public health importance: infrequent resistance profiles, long-lasting and/or re-emergent clusters and events important for their duration or size, which were reported to local public health authorities. Conclusions/Significance The WHONET-SaTScan system may serve as a model for surveillance and can be applied to other pathogens, implemented by other networks, and scaled up to national and international levels for early detection and control of outbreaks. PMID:24349586

Infectious diarrheal disease caused by contaminated well water in Chinese schools: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ding, Zheyuan; Zhai, Yujia; Wu, Chen; Wu, Haocheng; Lu, Qinbao; Lin, Junfen; He, Fan

2017-06-01

In China, waterborne outbreaks of infectious diarrheal disease mainly occur in schools, and contaminated well water is a common source of pathogens. The objective of this review was to present the attack rates, durations of outbreak, pathogens of infectious diarrheal disease, and sanitary conditions of wells in primary and secondary schools in China, and to analyze risk factors and susceptibility of school children. Relevant articles and reports were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program. Essential information, including urban/rural areas, school types, attack rates, pathogens, durations of outbreak, report intervals, and interventions were extracted from the eligible articles. Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Kruskal-Wallis H test, and Spearman correlation test were conducted in statistical analyses. Sex- and age-specific attack rate ratios were calculated as pooled effect sizes. We screened 2188 articles and retrieved data of 85 outbreaks from 1987 to 2014. Attack rates of outbreaks in rural areas (median, 12.63 cases/100 persons) and in primary schools (median, 14.54 cases/100 persons) were higher than those in urban areas (median, 5.62 cases/100 persons) and in secondary schools (median, 8.74 cases/100 persons) (P = 0.004 and P = 0.013, respectively). Shigella, pathogenic Escherichia coli, and norovirus were the most common pathogens. Boys tended toward higher attack rates than girls (sex-specific attack rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29, P = 0.05). Unsanitary conditions of water wells were reported frequently, and unhealthy behavior habits were common in students. School children were susceptible to waterborne disease in China. Chinese government should make efforts to improve access to safe water in schools. Health education promotion and conscientiousness of school leaders and teachers should be enhanced. Copyright © 2017. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia.

PubMed

Ahmad, Rohani; Suzilah, Ismail; Wan Najdah, Wan Mohamad Ali; Topek, Omar; Mustafakamal, Ibrahim; Lee, Han Lim

2018-01-01

A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so that preventive interventions can be taken early to avert the outbreaks.

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Laboratory-based prospective surveillance for community outbreaks of Shigella spp. in Argentina.

PubMed

Viñas, María R; Tuduri, Ezequiel; Galar, Alicia; Yih, Katherine; Pichel, Mariana; Stelling, John; Brengi, Silvina P; Della Gaspera, Anabella; van der Ploeg, Claudia; Bruno, Susana; Rogé, Ariel; Caffer, María I; Kulldorff, Martin; Galas, Marcelo

2013-01-01

To implement effective control measures, timely outbreak detection is essential. Shigella is the most common cause of bacterial diarrhea in Argentina. Highly resistant clones of Shigella have emerged, and outbreaks have been recognized in closed settings and in whole communities. We hereby report our experience with an evolving, integrated, laboratory-based, near real-time surveillance system operating in six contiguous provinces of Argentina during April 2009 to March 2012. To detect localized shigellosis outbreaks timely, we used the prospective space-time permutation scan statistic algorithm of SaTScan, embedded in WHONET software. Twenty three laboratories sent updated Shigella data on a weekly basis to the National Reference Laboratory. Cluster detection analysis was performed at several taxonomic levels: for all Shigella spp., for serotypes within species and for antimicrobial resistance phenotypes within species. Shigella isolates associated with statistically significant signals (clusters in time/space with recurrence interval ≥365 days) were subtyped by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) using PulseNet protocols. In three years of active surveillance, our system detected 32 statistically significant events, 26 of them identified before hospital staff was aware of any unexpected increase in the number of Shigella isolates. Twenty-six signals were investigated by PFGE, which confirmed a close relationship among the isolates for 22 events (84.6%). Seven events were investigated epidemiologically, which revealed links among the patients. Seventeen events were found at the resistance profile level. The system detected events of public health importance: infrequent resistance profiles, long-lasting and/or re-emergent clusters and events important for their duration or size, which were reported to local public health authorities. The WHONET-SaTScan system may serve as a model for surveillance and can be applied to other pathogens, implemented by other networks, and scaled up to national and international levels for early detection and control of outbreaks.

Large-scale impacts of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on intertidal sea stars and implications for recovery

PubMed Central

Burnaford, Jennifer L.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Antrim, Liam; Bohlmann, Heath; Blanchette, Carol A.; Engle, John M.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Gaddam, Rani; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Murray, Steven N.; Smith, Jayson R.; Whitaker, Stephen G.; Raimondi, Peter T.

2018-01-01

Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain. PMID:29558484

Epidemiology of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks, United States, 1998-2013.

PubMed

Angelo, K M; Nisler, A L; Hall, A J; Brown, L G; Gould, L H

2017-02-01

Although contamination of food can occur at any point from farm to table, restaurant food workers are a common source of foodborne illness. We describe the characteristics of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks and explore the role of food workers by analysing outbreaks associated with restaurants from 1998 to 2013 reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System. We identified 9788 restaurant-associated outbreaks. The median annual number of outbreaks was 620 (interquartile range 618-629). In 3072 outbreaks with a single confirmed aetiology reported, norovirus caused the largest number of outbreaks (1425, 46%). Of outbreaks with a single food reported and a confirmed aetiology, fish (254 outbreaks, 34%) was most commonly implicated, and these outbreaks were commonly caused by scombroid toxin (219 outbreaks, 86% of fish outbreaks). Most outbreaks (79%) occurred at sit-down establishments. The most commonly reported contributing factors were those related to food handling and preparation practices in the restaurant (2955 outbreaks, 61%). Food workers contributed to 2415 (25%) outbreaks. Knowledge of the foods, aetiologies, and contributing factors that result in foodborne disease restaurant outbreaks can help guide efforts to prevent foodborne illness.

Fault tree analysis of the causes of waterborne outbreaks.

PubMed

Risebro, Helen L; Doria, Miguel F; Andersson, Yvonne; Medema, Gertjan; Osborn, Keith; Schlosser, Olivier; Hunter, Paul R

2007-01-01

Prevention and containment of outbreaks requires examination of the contribution and interrelation of outbreak causative events. An outbreak fault tree was developed and applied to 61 enteric outbreaks related to public drinking water supplies in the EU. A mean of 3.25 causative events per outbreak were identified; each event was assigned a score based on percentage contribution per outbreak. Source and treatment system causative events often occurred concurrently (in 34 outbreaks). Distribution system causative events occurred less frequently (19 outbreaks) but were often solitary events contributing heavily towards the outbreak (a mean % score of 87.42). Livestock and rainfall in the catchment with no/inadequate filtration of water sources contributed concurrently to 11 of 31 Cryptosporidium outbreaks. Of the 23 protozoan outbreaks experiencing at least one treatment causative event, 90% of these events were filtration deficiencies; by contrast, for bacterial, viral, gastroenteritis and mixed pathogen outbreaks, 75% of treatment events were disinfection deficiencies. Roughly equal numbers of groundwater and surface water outbreaks experienced at least one treatment causative event (18 and 17 outbreaks, respectively). Retrospective analysis of multiple outbreaks of enteric disease can be used to inform outbreak investigations, facilitate corrective measures, and further develop multi-barrier approaches.

Public perceptions of quarantine: community-based telephone survey following an infectious disease outbreak.

PubMed

Tracy, C Shawn; Rea, Elizabeth; Upshur, Ross E G

2009-12-16

The use of restrictive measures such as quarantine draws into sharp relief the dynamic interplay between the individual rights of the citizen on the one hand and the collective rights of the community on the other. Concerns regarding infectious disease outbreaks (SARS, pandemic influenza) have intensified the need to understand public perceptions of quarantine and other social distancing measures. We conducted a telephone survey of the general population in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology was used. A final sample of 500 individuals was achieved through standard random-digit dialing. Our data indicate strong public support for the use of quarantine when required and for serious legal sanctions against those who fail to comply. This support is contingent both on the implementation of legal safeguards to protect against inappropriate use and on the provision of psychosocial supports for those affected. To engender strong public support for quarantine and other restrictive measures, government officials and public health policy-makers would do well to implement a comprehensive system of supports and safeguards, to educate and inform frontline public health workers, and to engage the public at large in an open dialogue on the ethical use of restrictive measures during infectious disease outbreaks.

Epidemic of complicated mumps in previously vaccinated young adults in the South-West of France.

PubMed

Vareil, M-O; Rouibi, G; Kassab, S; Soula, V; Duffau, P; Lafon, M-E; Neau, D; Cazanave, C

2014-12-01

We report the features and diagnosis of complicated mumps in previously vaccinated young adults. We retrospectively studied 7 cases of complicated mumps managed during 1 year at the Bordeaux University Hospital. The diagnosis was suggested by the clinical presentation and confirmed using specific RT-PCR. Five cases of meningitis, 1 of orchitis, and 1 of unilateral hearing impairment were identified. Each of the 7 patients had been previously vaccinated with MMR, 4 had received 2 doses of this vaccine. Blood tests revealed high rates of IgG antibodies, usually considered as sufficient for immunological protection, and every patient had at least 1 positive RT-PCR test for mumps. Outbreaks of complicated mumps may still occur despite a broad coverage of MMR vaccination. The clinical presentation suggested mumps but the final diagnosis could only be confirmed by genomic detection of the virus. Unusual viral strains with increased neurovirulence, insufficient population coverage associated with immunity decrease over time may explain outbreaks of complicated mumps. A full vaccine scheme of contact people or a third injection of vaccine for previously vaccinated people who are at risk of developing mumps are required to prevent further spreading of the disease during the outbreak. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology of Invasive Listeriosis due to Listeria monocytogenes in a Spanish Hospital over a Nine-Year Study Period, 2006-2014.

PubMed

Ariza-Miguel, Jaime; Fernández-Natal, María Isabel; Soriano, Francisco; Hernández, Marta; Stessl, Beatrix; Rodríguez-Lázaro, David

2015-01-01

We investigated the pathogenicity, invasiveness, and genetic relatedness of 17 clinical Listeria monocytogenes stains isolated over a period of nine years (2006-2014). All isolates were phenotypically characterised and growth patterns were determined. The antimicrobial susceptibility of L. monocytogenes isolates was determined in E-tests. Invasion assays were performed with epithelial HeLa cells. Finally, L. monocytogenes isolates were subtyped by PFGE and MLST. All isolates had similar phenotypic characteristics (β-haemolysis and lecithinase activity), and three types of growth curve were observed. Bacterial recovery rates after invasion assays ranged from 0.09% to 7.26% (1.62 ± 0.46). MLST identified 11 sequence types (STs), and 14 PFGE profiles were obtained, indicating a high degree of genetic diversity. Genetic studies unequivocally revealed the occurrence of one outbreak of listeriosis in humans that had not previously been reported. This outbreak occurred in October 2009 and affected three patients from neighbouring towns. In conclusion, the molecular epidemiological analysis clearly revealed a cluster (three human cases, all ST1) of not previously reported listeriosis cases in northwestern Spain. Our findings indicate that molecular subtyping, in combination with epidemiological case analysis, is essential and should be implemented in routine diagnosis, to improve the tracing of the sources of outbreaks.

Infection control for norovirus

PubMed Central

Barclay, L.; Park, G. W.; Vega, E.; Hall, A.; Parashar, U.; Vinjé, J.; Lopman, B.

2015-01-01

Norovirus infections are notoriously difficult to prevent and control, owing to their low infectious dose, high shedding titre, and environmental stability. The virus can spread through multiple transmission routes, of which person-to-person and foodborne are the most important. Recent advances in molecular diagnostics have helped to establish norovirus as the most common cause of sporadic gastroenteritis and the most common cause of outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis across all ages. In this article, we review the epidemiology and virology of noroviruses, and prevention and control guidelines, with a focus on the principles of disinfection and decontamination. Outbreak management relies on sound infection control principles, including hand hygiene, limiting exposure to infectious individuals, and thorough environmental decontamination. Ideally, all infection control recommendations would rely on empirical evidence, but a number of challenges, including the inability to culture noroviruses in the laboratory and the challenges of outbreak management in complex environments, has made it difficult to garner clear evidence of efficacy in certain areas of infection control. New experimental data on cultivable surrogates for human norovirus and on environmental survivability and relative resistance to commonly used disinfectants are providing new insights for further refinining disinfection practices. Finally, clinical trials are underway to evaluate the efficacy of vaccines, which may shift the current infection control principles to more targeted interventions. PMID:24813073

A Waterborne Outbreak and Detection of Cryptosporidium Oocysts in Drinking Water of an Older High-Rise Apartment Complex in Seoul

PubMed Central

Yang, Jin-Young; Lee, Eun-Sook; Kim, Se-Chul; Cha, So-Yang; Kim, Sung-Tek; Lee, Man-Ho; Han, Sun-Hee; Park, Young-Sang

2013-01-01

From May to June 2012, a waterborne outbreak of 124 cases of cryptosporidiosis occurred in the plumbing systems of an older high-rise apartment complex in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The residents of this apartment complex had symptoms of watery diarrhea and vomiting. Tap water samples in the apartment complex and its adjacent buildings were collected and tested for 57 parameters under the Korean Drinking Water Standards and for additional 11 microbiological parameters. The microbiological parameters included total colony counts, Clostridium perfringens, Enterococcus, fecal streptococcus, Salmonella, Shigella, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts, total culturable viruses, and Norovirus. While the tap water samples of the adjacent buildings complied with the Korean Drinking Water Standards for all parameters, fecal bacteria and Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected in the tap water samples of the outbreak apartment complex. It turned out that the agent of the disease was Cryptosporidium parvum. The drinking water was polluted with sewage from a septic tank in the apartment complex. To remove C. parvum oocysts, we conducted physical processes of cleaning the water storage tanks, flushing the indoor pipes, and replacing old pipes with new ones. Finally we restored the clean drinking water to the apartment complex after identification of no oocysts. PMID:24039290

Emerging Infectious Diseases and Blood Safety: Modeling the Transfusion-Transmission Risk.

PubMed

Kiely, Philip; Gambhir, Manoj; Cheng, Allen C; McQuilten, Zoe K; Seed, Clive R; Wood, Erica M

2017-07-01

While the transfusion-transmission (TT) risk associated with the major transfusion-relevant viruses such as HIV is now very low, during the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases, a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion transmissible. Two published models for estimating the transfusion-transmission risk from EIDs, referred to as the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Upfront Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), respectively, have been applied to several EIDs in outbreak situations. We describe and compare the methodological principles of both models, highlighting their similarities and differences. We also discuss the appropriateness of comparing results from the two models. Quantitating the TT risk of EIDs can inform decisions about risk mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. Finally, we present a qualitative risk assessment for Zika virus (ZIKV), an EID agent that has caused several outbreaks since 2007. In the latest and largest ever outbreak, several probable cases of transfusion-transmission ZIKV have been reported, indicating that it is transfusion-transmissible and therefore a risk to blood safety. We discuss why quantitative modeling the TT risk of ZIKV is currently problematic. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public perceptions of quarantine: community-based telephone survey following an infectious disease outbreak

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The use of restrictive measures such as quarantine draws into sharp relief the dynamic interplay between the individual rights of the citizen on the one hand and the collective rights of the community on the other. Concerns regarding infectious disease outbreaks (SARS, pandemic influenza) have intensified the need to understand public perceptions of quarantine and other social distancing measures. Methods We conducted a telephone survey of the general population in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology was used. A final sample of 500 individuals was achieved through standard random-digit dialing. Results Our data indicate strong public support for the use of quarantine when required and for serious legal sanctions against those who fail to comply. This support is contingent both on the implementation of legal safeguards to protect against inappropriate use and on the provision of psychosocial supports for those affected. Conclusion To engender strong public support for quarantine and other restrictive measures, government officials and public health policy-makers would do well to implement a comprehensive system of supports and safeguards, to educate and inform frontline public health workers, and to engage the public at large in an open dialogue on the ethical use of restrictive measures during infectious disease outbreaks. PMID:20015400

Current and Emerging Legionella Diagnostics for Laboratory and Outbreak Investigations

PubMed Central

Mercante, Jeffrey W.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Legionnaires' disease (LD) is an often severe and potentially fatal form of bacterial pneumonia caused by an extensive list of Legionella species. These ubiquitous freshwater and soil inhabitants cause human respiratory disease when amplified in man-made water or cooling systems and their aerosols expose a susceptible population. Treatment of sporadic cases and rapid control of LD outbreaks benefit from swift diagnosis in concert with discriminatory bacterial typing for immediate epidemiological responses. Traditional culture and serology were instrumental in describing disease incidence early in its history; currently, diagnosis of LD relies almost solely on the urinary antigen test, which captures only the dominant species and serogroup, Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp1). This has created a diagnostic “blind spot” for LD caused by non-Lp1 strains. This review focuses on historic, current, and emerging technologies that hold promise for increasing LD diagnostic efficiency and detection rates as part of a coherent testing regimen. The importance of cooperation between epidemiologists and laboratorians for a rapid outbreak response is also illustrated in field investigations conducted by the CDC with state and local authorities. Finally, challenges facing health care professionals, building managers, and the public health community in combating LD are highlighted, and potential solutions are discussed. PMID:25567224

A waterborne outbreak and detection of cryptosporidium oocysts in drinking water of an older high-rise apartment complex in seoul.

PubMed

Cho, Eun-Joo; Yang, Jin-Young; Lee, Eun-Sook; Kim, Se-Chul; Cha, So-Yang; Kim, Sung-Tek; Lee, Man-Ho; Han, Sun-Hee; Park, Young-Sang

2013-08-01

From May to June 2012, a waterborne outbreak of 124 cases of cryptosporidiosis occurred in the plumbing systems of an older high-rise apartment complex in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The residents of this apartment complex had symptoms of watery diarrhea and vomiting. Tap water samples in the apartment complex and its adjacent buildings were collected and tested for 57 parameters under the Korean Drinking Water Standards and for additional 11 microbiological parameters. The microbiological parameters included total colony counts, Clostridium perfringens, Enterococcus, fecal streptococcus, Salmonella, Shigella, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts, total culturable viruses, and Norovirus. While the tap water samples of the adjacent buildings complied with the Korean Drinking Water Standards for all parameters, fecal bacteria and Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected in the tap water samples of the outbreak apartment complex. It turned out that the agent of the disease was Cryptosporidium parvum. The drinking water was polluted with sewage from a septic tank in the apartment complex. To remove C. parvum oocysts, we conducted physical processes of cleaning the water storage tanks, flushing the indoor pipes, and replacing old pipes with new ones. Finally we restored the clean drinking water to the apartment complex after identification of no oocysts.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

2015-10-01

Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission.

PubMed

Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

2015-10-30

Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Impact of individual interest shift on information dissemination in modular networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Narisa; Cui, Xuelian

2017-01-01

Social networks exhibit strong community structure. Many researches have been done to explore the impacts of community structure on information diffusion but few combined with human behaviors together. In this paper, we focus on how the individual interests' changing behavior impacts the dynamics of information propagation. Firstly, we propose an information dissemination model considering both the community structure and individual interest shift where social reinforcement and time decaying are taken into account. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Further, the numerical results illustrate that both the community structure and the interests changing behavior have effects on the outbreak size of the information dissemination. Specially, lower modularity and higher community connection density will accelerate the speed of information propagation especially when the information maximal lifetime is shorter. In addition, the changes of individual interests in the message have a great impact on the final density of the received through increasing or decreasing the number of satisfied individuals directly. What is more, our findings suggest that when the modularity of the network is higher and the community clustering coefficient is lower individual interest shift behavior will have a heavier effect on the spread scope.

Molecular Evolution and Intraclade Recombination of Enterovirus D68 during the 2014 Outbreak in the United States

PubMed Central

Tan, Yi; Hassan, Ferdaus; Schuster, Jennifer E.; Simenauer, Ari; Selvarangan, Rangaraj; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Lin, Xudong; Fedorova, Nadia; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Lam, Tommy Tsan-Yuk; Chappell, James D.; Hartert, Tina V.; Holmes, Edward C.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT In August 2014, an outbreak of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) occurred in North America, causing severe respiratory disease in children. Due to a lack of complete genome sequence data, there is only a limited understanding of the molecular evolution and epidemiology of EV-D68 during this outbreak, and it is uncertain whether the differing clinical manifestations of EV-D68 infection are associated with specific viral lineages. We developed a high-throughput complete genome sequencing pipeline for EV-D68 that produced a total of 59 complete genomes from respiratory samples with a 95% success rate, including 57 genomes from Kansas City, MO, collected during the 2014 outbreak. With these data in hand, we performed phylogenetic analyses of complete genome and VP1 capsid protein sequences. Notably, we observed considerable genetic diversity among EV-D68 isolates in Kansas City, manifest as phylogenetically distinct lineages, indicative of multiple introductions of this virus into the city. In addition, we identified an intersubclade recombination event within EV-D68, the first recombinant in this virus reported to date. Finally, we found no significant association between EV-D68 genetic variation, either lineages or individual mutations, and a variety of demographic and clinical variables, suggesting that host factors likely play a major role in determining disease severity. Overall, our study revealed the complex pattern of viral evolution within a single geographic locality during a single outbreak, which has implications for the design of effective intervention and prevention strategies. IMPORTANCE Until recently, EV-D68 was considered to be an uncommon human pathogen, associated with mild respiratory illness. However, in 2014 EV-D68 was responsible for more than 1,000 disease cases in North America, including severe respiratory illness in children and acute flaccid myelitis, raising concerns about its potential impact on public health. Despite the emergence of EV-D68, a lack of full-length genome sequences means that little is known about the molecular evolution of this virus within a single geographic locality during a single outbreak. Here, we doubled the number of publicly available complete genome sequences of EV-D68 by performing high-throughput next-generation sequencing, characterized the evolutionary history of this outbreak in detail, identified a recombination event, and investigated whether there was any correlation between the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients and the viral variant that infected them. Overall, these results will help inform the design of intervention strategies for EV-D68. PMID:26656685

Large measles outbreak in Geneva, Switzerland, January to August 2011: descriptive epidemiology and demonstration of quarantine effectiveness.

PubMed

Delaporte, E; Wyler Lazarevic, C A; Iten, A; Sudre, P

2013-02-07

Between January and August 2011, the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, experienced a large measles outbreak with 219 cases (47 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in the context of an extensive epidemic in a neighbouring region of France. Most cases were young adults (median age: 18 years), often unaware of their vaccination status. The vast majority of cases were either not (81%) or incompletely vaccinated (8%). Thirty clusters with a total of 119 cases and a median cluster size of three (range: 2–15 cases) were identified. Overall, 44 cases were imported or linked to imported cases. Of 73 contacts of cases who were quarantined, 50 developed measles and caused six secondary cases. This compares to 81 secondary cases among 173 non-quarantined cases (relative risk: 0.26; 95% confidence interval: 0.06–0.65), demonstrating the effectiveness of well targeted quarantine measures in reducing transmission.

Individual-based approach to epidemic processes on arbitrary dynamic contact networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Luis E. C.; Masuda, Naoki

2016-08-01

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We develop an individual-based approximation for the susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model applicable to arbitrary dynamic networks. Our framework provides, at the individual-level, the probability flow over time associated with the infection dynamics. This computationally efficient framework discards the correlation between the states of different nodes, yet provides accurate results in approximating direct numerical simulations. It naturally captures the temporal heterogeneities and correlations of contact sequences, fundamental ingredients regulating the timing and size of an epidemic outbreak, and the number of secondary infections. The high accuracy of our approximation further allows us to detect the index individual of an epidemic outbreak in real-life network data.

Animal Models of Zika Virus

PubMed Central

Bradley, Michael P; Nagamine, Claude M

2017-01-01

Zika virus has garnered great attention over the last several years, as outbreaks of the disease have emerged throughout the Western Hemisphere. Until quite recently Zika virus was considered a fairly benign virus, with limited clinical severity in both people and animals. The size and scope of the outbreak in the Western Hemisphere has allowed for the identification of severe clinical disease that is associated with Zika virus infection, most notably microcephaly among newborns, and an association with Guillian–Barré syndrome in adults. This recent association with severe clinical disease, of which further analysis strongly suggested causation by Zika virus, has resulted in a massive increase in the amount of both basic and applied research of this virus. Both small and large animal models are being used to uncover the pathogenesis of this emerging disease and to develop vaccine and therapeutic strategies. Here we review the animal-model–based Zika virus research that has been performed to date. PMID:28662753

Liposarcoma in clownfish, Amphiprion ocellaris Cuvier, produced in indoor aquaculture.

PubMed

Sharon, G; Benharroch, D; Kachko, L; Reis-Hevlin, N; Zilberg, D

2015-06-01

Clownfish, Amphiprion ocellaris Cuvier, produced and grown in an experimental indoor aquaculture facility, presented with lipomatous tumours. A total of 14 affected fish were examined. Based on the total number of fish at the aquaculture facility at the time of outbreak of this pathology, the scope of the incident is estimated to be 1 of 300 fish. The tumours were characterized by the presence of mature adipocytes of variable sizes, lipoblasts and by an invasive behaviour, which affected internal organs, muscle, central nervous system and, in one case, an eye. Detailed macroscopic and histopathological features are presented. The suggested diagnosis is that of a well-differentiated liposarcoma, a diagnosis so far never applied to fish. The limited outbreak of the neoplasm lasted a few months in 2011 and did not recur. Possible factors leading to this phenomenon, notably the metastasis, are discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Smallpox virus plaque phenotypes: genetic, geographical and case fatality relationships.

PubMed

Olson, Victoria A; Karem, Kevin L; Smith, Scott K; Hughes, Christine M; Damon, Inger K

2009-04-01

Smallpox (infection with Orthopoxvirus variola) remains a feared illness more than 25 years after its eradication. Historically, case-fatality rates (CFRs) varied between outbreaks (<1 to approximately 40 %), the reasons for which are incompletely understood. The extracellular enveloped virus (EEV) form of orthopoxvirus progeny is hypothesized to disseminate infection. Investigations with the closely related Orthopoxvirus vaccinia have associated increased comet formation (EEV production) with increased mouse mortality (pathogenicity). Other vaccinia virus genetic manipulations which affect EEV production inconsistently support this association. However, antisera against vaccinia virus envelope protect mice from lethal challenge, further supporting a critical role for EEV in pathogenicity. Here, we show that the increased comet formation phenotypes of a diverse collection of variola viruses associate with strain phylogeny and geographical origin, but not with increased outbreak-related CFRs; within clades, there may be an association of plaque size with CFR. The mechanisms for variola virus pathogenicity probably involves multiple host and pathogen factors.

Animal Models of Zika Virus.

PubMed

Bradley, Michael P; Nagamine, Claude M

2017-06-01

Zika virus has garnered great attention over the last several years, as outbreaks of the disease have emerged throughout the Western Hemisphere. Until quite recently Zika virus was considered a fairly benign virus, with limited clinical severity in both people and animals. The size and scope of the outbreak in the Western Hemisphere has allowed for the identification of severe clinical disease that is associated with Zika virus infection, most notably microcephaly among newborns, and an association with Guillian-Barré syndrome in adults. This recent association with severe clinical disease, of which further analysis strongly suggested causation by Zika virus, has resulted in a massive increase in the amount of both basic and applied research of this virus. Both small and large animal models are being used to uncover the pathogenesis of this emerging disease and to develop vaccine and therapeutic strategies. Here we review the animal-model-based Zika virus research that has been performed to date.

Increase in Multistate Foodborne Disease Outbreaks-United States, 1973-2010.

PubMed

Nguyen, Von D; Bennett, Sarah D; Mungai, Elisabeth; Gieraltowski, Laura; Hise, Kelley; Gould, L Hannah

2015-11-01

Changes in food production and distribution have increased opportunities for foods contaminated early in the supply chain to be distributed widely, increasing the possibility of multistate outbreaks. In recent decades, surveillance systems for foodborne disease have been improved, allowing officials to more effectively identify related cases and to trace and identify an outbreak's source. We reviewed multistate foodborne disease outbreaks reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System during 1973-2010. We calculated the percentage of multistate foodborne disease outbreaks relative to all foodborne disease outbreaks and described characteristics of multistate outbreaks, including the etiologic agents and implicated foods. Multistate outbreaks accounted for 234 (0.8%) of 27,755 foodborne disease outbreaks, 24,003 (3%) of 700,600 outbreak-associated illnesses, 2839 (10%) of 29,756 outbreak-associated hospitalizations, and 99 (16%) of 628 outbreak-associated deaths. The median annual number of multistate outbreaks increased from 2.5 during 1973-1980 to 13.5 during 2001-2010; the number of multistate outbreak-associated illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths also increased. Most multistate outbreaks were caused by Salmonella (47%) and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (26%). Foods most commonly implicated were beef (22%), fruits (13%), and leafy vegetables (13%). The number of identified and reported multistate foodborne disease outbreaks has increased. Improvements in detection, investigation, and reporting of foodborne disease outbreaks help explain the increasing number of reported multistate outbreaks and the increasing percentage of outbreaks that were multistate. Knowing the etiologic agents and foods responsible for multistate outbreaks can help to identify sources of food contamination so that the safety of the food supply can be improved.

Using heterogeneity in the population structure of U.S. swine farms to compare transmission models for porcine epidemic diarrhoea

PubMed Central

O’Dea, Eamon B.; Snelson, Harry; Bansal, Shweta

2016-01-01

In 2013, U.S. swine producers were confronted with the disruptive emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED). Movement of animals among farms is hypothesised to have played a role in the spread of PED among farms. Via this or other mechanisms, the rate of spread may also depend on the geographic density of farms and climate. To evaluate such effects on a large scale, we analyse state-level counts of outbreaks with variables describing the distribution of farm sizes and types, aggregate flows of animals among farms, and an index of climate. Our first main finding is that it is possible for a correlation analysis to be sensitive to transmission model parameters. This finding is based on a global sensitivity analysis of correlations on simulated data that included a biased and noisy observation model based on the available PED data. Our second main finding is that flows are significantly associated with the reports of PED outbreaks. This finding is based on correlations of pairwise relationships and regression modeling of total and weekly outbreak counts. These findings illustrate how variation in population structure may be employed along with observational data to improve understanding of disease spread. PMID:26947420

Inferring modes of colonization for pest species using heterozygosity comparisons and a shared-allele test.

PubMed Central

Sved, J A; Yu, H; Dominiak, B; Gilchrist, A S

2003-01-01

Long-range dispersal of a species may involve either a single long-distance movement from a core population or spreading via unobserved intermediate populations. Where the new populations originate as small propagules, genetic drift may be extreme and gene frequency or assignment methods may not prove useful in determining the relation between the core population and outbreak samples. We describe computationally simple resampling methods for use in this situation to distinguish between the different modes of dispersal. First, estimates of heterozygosity can be used to test for direct sampling from the core population and to estimate the effective size of intermediate populations. Second, a test of sharing of alleles, particularly rare alleles, can show whether outbreaks are related to each other rather than arriving as independent samples from the core population. The shared-allele statistic also serves as a genetic distance measure that is appropriate for small samples. These methods were applied to data on a fruit fly pest species, Bactrocera tryoni, which is quarantined from some horticultural areas in Australia. We concluded that the outbreaks in the quarantine zone came from a heterogeneous set of genetically differentiated populations, possibly ones that overwinter in the vicinity of the quarantine zone. PMID:12618417

Douglas-fir tussock moth- and Douglas-fir beetle-caused mortality in a ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forest in the Colorado Front Range, USA

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Ann M. Lynch; Willis C. Schaupp; Vladimir Bocharnikov

2014-01-01

An outbreak of the Douglas-fir tussock moth, Orgyia pseudotsugata McDunnough, occurred in the South Platte River drainage on the Pike-San Isabel National Forest in the Colorado Front Range attacking Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco. Stocking levels, species composition, and tree size in heavily and lightly defoliated stands were similar. Douglas-fir...

Reduction in growth of pole-sized ponderosa pine related to a pandora moth outbreak in Central Oregon.

Treesearch

P.H. Cochran

1998-01-01

Defoliation by pandora moth in a ponderosa pine spacing study in 1992 and 1994 generally increased as spacings increased from 2 to 5.7 meters and then decreased as spacings increased to 8 meters. Defoliation did not increase mortality during the 1990-94 period, but volume growth was reduced. Basal area increments of sample trees were reduced 25 percent the first...

JPRS Report, Epidemiology

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-21

type 4 since the poisoning scare. "Figures since Dec 9, when egg consumption fell by half, show that cases of salmonella enteritidis type 4 fell from...Epidemics Reported in Wales [Michael Fleet; THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, 10 Dec 88] • ••••• - 23 Government Gives Statistics on Salmonella Deaths [David...difficult to estimate the size of an outbreak. Government Gives Statistics on Salmonella Deaths 54500048 London THE DAILY TELEGRAPH in English 20 Dec

Coral recovery in the central Maldives archipelago since the last major mass-bleaching, in 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisapia, C.; Burn, D.; Yoosuf, R.; Najeeb, A.; Anderson, K. D.; Pratchett, M. S.

2016-10-01

Increasing frequency and severity of disturbances is causing global degradation of coral reef ecosystems. This study examined temporal changes in live coral cover and coral composition in the central Maldives from 1997 to 2016, encompassing two bleaching events, a tsunami, and an outbreak of Acanthaster planci. We also examined the contemporary size structure for five dominant coral taxa (tabular Acropora, Acropora muricata, Acropora humilis, Pocillopora spp, and massive Porites). Total coral cover increased throughout the study period, with marked increases following the 1998 mass-bleaching. The relative abundance of key genera has changed through time, where Acropora and Pocillopora (which are highly susceptible to bleaching) were under-represented following 1998 mass-bleaching but increased until outbreaks of A. planci in 2015. The contemporary size-structure for all coral taxa was dominated by larger colonies with peaked distributions suggesting that recent disturbances had a disproportionate impact on smaller colonies, or that recruitment is currently limited. This may suggest that coral resilience has been compromised by recent disturbances, and further bleaching (expected in 2016) could lead to highly protracted recovery times. We showed that Maldivian reefs recovered following the 1998 mass-bleaching event, but it took up to a decade, and ongoing disturbances may be eroding reef resilience.

Coral recovery in the central Maldives archipelago since the last major mass-bleaching, in 1998.

PubMed

Pisapia, C; Burn, D; Yoosuf, R; Najeeb, A; Anderson, K D; Pratchett, M S

2016-10-03

Increasing frequency and severity of disturbances is causing global degradation of coral reef ecosystems. This study examined temporal changes in live coral cover and coral composition in the central Maldives from 1997 to 2016, encompassing two bleaching events, a tsunami, and an outbreak of Acanthaster planci. We also examined the contemporary size structure for five dominant coral taxa (tabular Acropora, Acropora muricata, Acropora humilis, Pocillopora spp, and massive Porites). Total coral cover increased throughout the study period, with marked increases following the 1998 mass-bleaching. The relative abundance of key genera has changed through time, where Acropora and Pocillopora (which are highly susceptible to bleaching) were under-represented following 1998 mass-bleaching but increased until outbreaks of A. planci in 2015. The contemporary size-structure for all coral taxa was dominated by larger colonies with peaked distributions suggesting that recent disturbances had a disproportionate impact on smaller colonies, or that recruitment is currently limited. This may suggest that coral resilience has been compromised by recent disturbances, and further bleaching (expected in 2016) could lead to highly protracted recovery times. We showed that Maldivian reefs recovered following the 1998 mass-bleaching event, but it took up to a decade, and ongoing disturbances may be eroding reef resilience.

Minimization of bovine tuberculosis control costs in US dairy herds

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebecca L.; Tauer, Loren W.; Schukken, Ynte H.; Lu, Zhao; Grohn, Yrjo T.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to minimize the cost of controlling an isolated bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreak in a US dairy herd, using a stochastic simulation model of bTB with economic and biological layers. A model optimizer produced a control program that required 2-month testing intervals (TI) with 2 negative whole-herd tests to leave quarantine. This control program minimized both farm and government costs. In all cases, test-and-removal costs were lower than depopulation costs, although the variability in costs increased for farms with high holding costs or small herd sizes. Increasing herd size significantly increased costs for both the farm and the government, while increasing indemnity payments significantly decreased farm costs and increasing testing costs significantly increased government costs. Based on the results of this model, we recommend 2-month testing intervals for herds after an outbreak of bovine tuberculosis, with 2 negative whole herd tests being sufficient to lift quarantine. A prolonged test and cull program may cause a state to lose its bTB-free status during the testing period. When the cost of losing the bTB-free status is greater than $1.4 million then depopulation of farms could be preferred over a test and cull program. PMID:23953679

Coral recovery in the central Maldives archipelago since the last major mass-bleaching, in 1998

PubMed Central

Pisapia, C.; Burn, D.; Yoosuf, R.; Najeeb, A.; Anderson, K. D.; Pratchett, M. S.

2016-01-01

Increasing frequency and severity of disturbances is causing global degradation of coral reef ecosystems. This study examined temporal changes in live coral cover and coral composition in the central Maldives from 1997 to 2016, encompassing two bleaching events, a tsunami, and an outbreak of Acanthaster planci. We also examined the contemporary size structure for five dominant coral taxa (tabular Acropora, Acropora muricata, Acropora humilis, Pocillopora spp, and massive Porites). Total coral cover increased throughout the study period, with marked increases following the 1998 mass-bleaching. The relative abundance of key genera has changed through time, where Acropora and Pocillopora (which are highly susceptible to bleaching) were under-represented following 1998 mass-bleaching but increased until outbreaks of A. planci in 2015. The contemporary size-structure for all coral taxa was dominated by larger colonies with peaked distributions suggesting that recent disturbances had a disproportionate impact on smaller colonies, or that recruitment is currently limited. This may suggest that coral resilience has been compromised by recent disturbances, and further bleaching (expected in 2016) could lead to highly protracted recovery times. We showed that Maldivian reefs recovered following the 1998 mass-bleaching event, but it took up to a decade, and ongoing disturbances may be eroding reef resilience. PMID:27694823

Food- and waterborne disease outbreaks in Australian long-term care facilities, 2001-2008.

PubMed

Kirk, Martyn D; Lalor, Karin; Raupach, Jane; Combs, Barry; Stafford, Russell; Hall, Gillian V; Becker, Niels

2011-01-01

Abstract Food- or waterborne diseases in long-term care facilities (LTCF) can result in serious outcomes, including deaths, and they are potentially preventable. We analyzed data collected by OzFoodNet on food- and waterborne disease outbreaks occurring in LTCF in Australia from 2001 to 2008. We compared outbreaks by the number of persons affected, etiology, and implicated vehicle. During 8 years of surveillance, 5.9% (55/936) of all food- and waterborne outbreaks in Australia occurred in LTCF. These LTCF outbreaks affected a total of 909 people, with 66 hospitalized and 23 deaths. The annual incidence of food- or waterborne outbreaks was 1.9 (95% confidence intervals 1.0-3.7) per 1000 facilities. Salmonella caused 17 outbreaks, Clostridium perfringens 14 outbreaks, Campylobacter 8 outbreaks, and norovirus 1 outbreak. Residents were at higher risk of death during outbreaks of salmonellosis than for all other outbreaks combined (relative risk 7.8, 95% confidence intervals 1.8-33.8). Of 15 outbreaks of unknown etiology, 11 were suspected to be due to C. perfringens intoxication. Food vehicles were only identified in 27% (14/52) of outbreaks, with six outbreak investigations implicating pureed foods. Dishes containing raw eggs were implicated as the cause of four outbreaks. Three outbreaks of suspected waterborne disease were attributed to rainwater collected from facility roofs. To prevent disease outbreaks, facilities need to improve handling of pureed foods, avoid feeding residents raw or undercooked eggs, and ensure that rainwater tanks have a scheduled maintenance and disinfection program.

Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska; Riley, Stephen C.; Blehert, David S.; Ballmann, Anne E.

2011-01-01

Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

Challengers from the Sidelines: Understanding America’s Violent Far-Right

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

45 finally the outbreak of the Great Depression —which made the business model of the movement untenable—culminated in mass departure from the...during this period of extreme hopelessness and at the height of the Great Depression , increased the mobilization potential of millenarian and religious...Smith was a Southern political operative who was the main aide to Louisiana Senator Huey P. Long during the Great Depression .303 He moved to Los

Two Linked Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli Outbreaks, Nottingham, UK, June 2014

PubMed Central

MacGregor, Vanessa; Robbins, Vivienne; Bayliss, Laura; Chattaway, Marie Anne; Dallman, Tim; Ready, Derren; Aird, Heather; Puleston, Richard; Hawker, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) outbreaks are uncommon in Europe. In June 2014, two EIEC outbreaks occurred in Nottingham, UK, within 2 days; outbreak A was linked to a takeaway restaurant and outbreak B to a wedding party. We conducted 2 analytical studies: a case–control study for outbreak A and a cohort study for outbreak B. We tested microbiological and environmental samples, including by using whole-genome sequencing. For both outbreaks combined, we identified 157 probable case-patients; 27 were laboratory-confirmed as EIEC O96:H19–positive. Combined epidemiologic, microbiological, and environmental findings implicated lettuce as the vehicle of infection in outbreak A, but the source of the organism remained unknown. Whole-genome sequencing identified the same organism in cases from both outbreaks, but no epidemiologic link was confirmed. These outbreaks highlight that EIEC has the capacity to cause large and severe gastrointestinal disease outbreaks and should be considered as a potential pathogen in foodborne outbreaks in Europe. PMID:27314432

Two Linked Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli Outbreaks, Nottingham, UK, June 2014.

PubMed

Newitt, Sophie; MacGregor, Vanessa; Robbins, Vivienne; Bayliss, Laura; Chattaway, Marie Anne; Dallman, Tim; Ready, Derren; Aird, Heather; Puleston, Richard; Hawker, Jeremy

2016-07-01

Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) outbreaks are uncommon in Europe. In June 2014, two EIEC outbreaks occurred in Nottingham, UK, within 2 days; outbreak A was linked to a takeaway restaurant and outbreak B to a wedding party. We conducted 2 analytical studies: a case-control study for outbreak A and a cohort study for outbreak B. We tested microbiological and environmental samples, including by using whole-genome sequencing. For both outbreaks combined, we identified 157 probable case-patients; 27 were laboratory-confirmed as EIEC O96:H19-positive. Combined epidemiologic, microbiological, and environmental findings implicated lettuce as the vehicle of infection in outbreak A, but the source of the organism remained unknown. Whole-genome sequencing identified the same organism in cases from both outbreaks, but no epidemiologic link was confirmed. These outbreaks highlight that EIEC has the capacity to cause large and severe gastrointestinal disease outbreaks and should be considered as a potential pathogen in foodborne outbreaks in Europe.

A Study of 279 General Outbreaks of Gastrointestinal Infection in the North-East Region of England

PubMed Central

Tebbutt, Grahame M.; Wilson, Deborah; Holtby, Ian

2009-01-01

All outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease reported to the authorities were entered on a computer database with outbreak control teams being established to investigate larger or more significant incidents. The outbreak database and, when set up, the notes of outbreak team meetings were examined for the 279 outbreaks reported in a three-year period (2003–2005). Faeces specimens submitted as part of an outbreak were examined for microbial pathogens and the results cross-matched to the outbreak number. Almost half of the general outbreaks reported (137) occurred in long-term care facilities for the elderly, 51 outbreaks were recorded in hospitals and 31 occurred in the wider community. In 76 outbreaks no specimen was logged. A microbial cause was confirmed in about one-third of outbreaks, with noroviruses being the most common (19%). Salmonellas accounted for 12 of the 21 community outbreaks linked to social events and all were foodborne. Suggestions for improving notification and surveillance are discussed. PMID:19440398

Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

PubMed

Schley, David; Whittle, Sophie; Taylor, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Zoltan

2012-09-15

Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expected Net Benefit of Vaccinating Rangeland Sheep against Bluetongue Virus Using a Modified-Live versus Killed Virus Vaccine

PubMed Central

Munsick, Tristram R.; Peck, Dannele E.; Ritten, John P.; Jones, Randall; Jones, Michelle; Miller, Myrna M.

2017-01-01

Recurring outbreaks of bluetongue virus in domestic sheep of the US Intermountain West have prompted questions about the economic benefits and costs of vaccinating individual flocks against bluetongue (BT) disease. We estimate the cost of a BT outbreak on a representative rangeland sheep operation in the Big Horn Basin of the state of Wyoming using enterprise budgets and stochastic simulation. The latter accounts for variability in disease severity and lamb price, as well as uncertainty about when an outbreak will occur. We then estimate the cost of purchasing and administering a BT vaccine. Finally, we calculate expected annual net benefit of vaccinating under various outbreak intervals. Expected annual net benefit is calculated for both a killed virus (KV) vaccine and modified-live virus vaccine, using an observed price of $0.32 per dose for modified-live and an estimated price of $1.20 per dose for KV. The modified-live vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 100% chance of being positive for an outbreak interval of 5, 10, or 20 years, and a 77% chance of being positive for a 50-year interval. The KV vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 97% chance of being positive for a 5-year outbreak interval, and a 42% chance of being positive for a 10-year interval. A KV vaccine is, therefore, unlikely to be economically attractive to producers in areas exposed less frequently to BT disease. A modified-live vaccine, however, requires rigorous authorization before legal use can occur in Wyoming. To date, no company has requested to manufacture a modified-live vaccine for commercial use in Wyoming. The KV vaccine poses less risk to sheep reproduction and less risk of unintentional spread, both of which facilitate approval for commercial production. Yet, our results show an economically consequential tradeoff between a KV vaccine’s relative safety and higher cost. Unless the purchase price is reduced below our assumed $1.20 per dose, producer adoption of a KV vaccine for BT is likely to be low in the study area. This tradeoff between cost and safety should be considered when policymakers regulate commercial use of the two vaccine types. PMID:29075635

Understanding newsworthiness of an emerging pandemic: international newspaper coverage of the H1N1 outbreak.

PubMed

Smith, Katherine C; Rimal, Rajiv N; Sandberg, Helena; Storey, John D; Lagasse, Lisa; Maulsby, Catherine; Rhoades, Elizabeth; Barnett, Daniel J; Omer, Saad B; Links, Jonathan M

2013-09-01

During an evolving public health crisis, news organizations disseminate information rapidly, much of which is uncertain, dynamic, and difficult to verify. We examine factors related to international news coverage of H1N1 during the first month after the outbreak in late April 2009 and consider the news media's role as an information source during an emerging pandemic. Data on H1N1 news were compiled in real time from newspaper websites across twelve countries between April 29, 2009 and May 28, 2009. A news sample was purposively constructed to capture variation in countries' prior experience with avian influenza outbreaks and pandemic preparation efforts. We analyzed the association between H1N1 news volume and four predictor variables: geographic region, prior experience of a novel flu strain (H5N1), existence of a national pandemic plan, and existence of a localized H1N1 outbreak. H1N1 news was initially extensive but declined rapidly (OR = 0.85, P < .001). Pandemic planning did not predict newsworthiness. However, countries with prior avian flu experience had higher news volume (OR = 1.411, P < .05), suggesting that H1N1 newsworthiness was bolstered by past experiences. The proportion of H1N1 news was significantly lower in Europe than elsewhere (OR = 0.388, P < 0.05). Finally, coverage of H1N1 increased after a first in-country case (OR = 1.415, P < .01), interrupting the pattern of coverage decline. Findings demonstrate the enhanced newsworthiness of localized threats, even during an emerging pandemic. We discuss implications for news media's role in effective public health communication throughout an epidemic given the demonstrated precipitous decline in news interest. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease with onychomadesis caused by Coxsackie virus A16 in Granada].

PubMed

Navarro Moreno, E; Almagro López, D; Jaldo Jiménez, R; Del Moral Campaña, M C; Árbol Fernández, G; Pérez Ruiz, M; Almagro Nievas, D

2015-04-01

Due to the significant increase in the number of cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among pre-school children population during late 2011 and early 2012. A study has been proposed with the aim of describing the HFMD outbreak and analyzing the risk factors associated with suffering onychomadesis. A descriptive and analytical case-control study was designed. The study population was 376 children between 6 and 36 months old, living in the Basic Health Catchment area of Peligros (Granada). The study inclued an epidemiological survey of 28 cases and paired controls in order to collect data on the time, person and place, and implementing preventive actions and family health education. Finally a microbiological viral study of stool samples was made. There were 64% of girls with average age 20.8 months. The clinical signs fornd were, fever (75%), vesicular palmar eruption (71%), plantar eruption (68%), erosive stomatitis (64%), and nail loss (46%). The risk of getting sick was 14 times greater for those children attending a childcare centre and had contact with sick cases (OR 13.8; 95% CI; 3.79-50.18). The average time since onset of symptoms and onychomadesis was 52 days, and its appearance was linked to the presence of ulcers in mouth (P=.006). Five samples were positive to enteroviruses Coxsackie A16. There was an outbreak of HFMD detected by pediatricians and families. The cases presented with marked clinical symptoms, and the nail loss (onychomadesis) generated a social alarm. The cause of the outbreak was an enterovirus Coxsackie A16 transmitted among sick cases and through childcare centres. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Molecular epidemiology of an outbreak of Legionnaires' disease associated with a cooling tower in Genova-Sestri Ponente, Italy.

PubMed

Castellani Pastoris, M; Ciceroni, L; Lo Monaco, R; Goldoni, P; Mentore, B; Flego, G; Cattani, L; Ciarrocchi, S; Pinto, A; Visca, P

1997-12-01

Fatty acid profile analysis, monoclonal antibody (MAb) subtyping, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), arbitrarily primed polymerase chain reaction (AP-PCR), and ribotyping were used to compare clinical and environmental Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 isolates from an outbreak of Legionnaires' disease presumptively associated with cooling towers. According to the Oxford subtyping scheme, the MAb subtype of patients' isolates and of two strains originating from a cooling tower was Pontiac, whereas the other isolates were subtype Olda. The strains showed no intrinsic strain-to-strain difference in fatty acid profiles, and ribotyping and length polymorphism of the 16S-23S rDNA intervening regions failed to reveal any differences between the isolates. Conversely, PFGE and AP-PCR appeared to be more discriminatory, as the same genomic profile was found for the clinical and some environmental strains. Meteorologic and epidemiological data and the results of molecular analysis of the Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 isolates support the hypothesis that the infection was transmitted from one of the cooling towers to the indoor environment of the same building, to homes in proximity that had open windows, and to the streets. In fact, the outbreak diminished and later ended after a part in the tower was replaced. This investigation demonstrates the utility of combined molecular methods (i.e., phenotypic and genomic typing) in comparing epidemiologically linked clinical and environmental isolates. Finally, the outbreak confirms the risk of Legionnaires' disease posed by cooling towers, mainly when atmospheric thermal and humidity inversions occur. This finding emphasizes the need to determine whether the source of infection is in the living or working environment or somewhere else.

Evaluation of Control Strategies for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) in Swine Breeding Herds Using a Discrete Event Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Arruda, Andréia Gonçalves; Friendship, Robert; Carpenter, Jane; Greer, Amy; Poljak, Zvonimir

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a discrete event agent-based stochastic model to explore the likelihood of the occurrence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreaks in swine herds with different PRRS control measures in place. The control measures evaluated included vaccination with a modified-live attenuated vaccine and live-virus inoculation of gilts, and both were compared to a baseline scenario where no control measures were in place. A typical North American 1,000-sow farrow-to-wean swine herd was used as a model, with production and disease parameters estimated from the literature and expert opinion. The model constructed herein was not only able to capture individual animal heterogeneity in immunity to and shedding of the PRRS virus, but also the dynamic animal flow and contact structure typical in such herds under field conditions. The model outcomes included maximum number of females infected per simulation, and time at which that happened and the incidence of infected weaned piglets during the first year of challenge-virus introduction. Results showed that the baseline scenario produced a larger percentage of simulations resulting in outbreaks compared to the control scenarios, and interestingly some of the outbreaks occurred over long periods after virus introduction. The live-virus inoculation scenario showed promising results, with fewer simulations resulting in outbreaks than the other scenarios, but the negative impacts of maintaining a PRRS-positive population should be considered. Finally, under the assumptions of the current model, neither of the control strategies prevented the infection from spreading to the piglet population, which highlights the importance of maintaining internal biosecurity practices at the farrowing room level.

Constructing Rigorous and Broad Biosurveillance Networks for Detecting Emerging Zoonotic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Brown, Mac; Moore, Leslie; McMahon, Benjamin; Powell, Dennis; LaBute, Montiago; Hyman, James M.; Rivas, Ariel; Jankowski, Mark; Berendzen, Joel; Loeppky, Jason; Manore, Carrie; Fair, Jeanne

2015-01-01

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities of potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic. PMID:25946164

Widespread circulation of a new echovirus 30 variant causing aseptic meningitis and non-specific viral illness, South-East France, 2013.

PubMed

Nougairede, Antoine; Bessaud, Mael; Thiberville, Simon-Djamel; Piorkowski, Geraldine; Ninove, Laetitia; Zandotti, Christine; Charrel, Remi N; Guilhem, Noel; de Lamballerie, Xavier

2014-09-01

Human enteroviruses (HEVs) are major cause of aseptic meningitis. A new outbreak of E-30 occurred between April and September 2013 in Marseille, South-East France. Better understand what happen locally when an E-30 outbreak occurs. Laboratory data (identification and characterization of circulating E-30 strains by partial/complete genome sequencing) were analyzed together with clinical data from emergency ward of the public hospital of Marseille. Compared with data from previous years, we observed an excess of HEV infections between April and September 2013. A total of 202 patients were tested positive of which 79% (160/202) had a cerebrospinal fluid tested positive. Because we performed genotyping using clinical specimens, we obtained representative molecular data related to patients tested positive and found a majority (105/119) of echoviruses 30 (E-30). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that E-30 circulating in Europe since 2000 belong to a unique lineage and showed at the intra-genogroup level the temporal circulation of E-30. Molecular data also indicated that majority of E-30 detected (92%) were almost identical. Compared with data from previous years, this outbreak was finally associated with an excess of patients admitted to an emergency ward for meningitis but also for non-specific viral illness. Our data provide new insights into microevolution of E-30: almost all E-30 emerged from local circulation of one parental virus. Moreover, our findings showed that HEV outbreaks cause an excess of emergency ward consultations but probably also an excess of consultations to general practitioners who receive majority of the non-specific viral illness. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The incidence of viral hepatitis A in the Hradec Králové Region in the Czech Republic in the last decade].

PubMed

Šošovičková, R; Smetana, J; Beranová, E; Kučerová, K; Chlíbek, R

Viral hepatitis A continues to occur in the Czech Republic due to the high susceptibility of the population and existing opportunities for the transmission of the disease. The aim was to describe and analyse the incidence of viral hepatitis A in the Hradec Králové Region in the Czech Republic in 2005-2014, including the study of two outbreaks that required a different approach of field epidemiologists. In 2015, a retrospective analysis was carried out of the data on the incidence of viral hepatitis A in Hradec Králové Region in 2005-2014. The EPIDAT system where cases of infectious diseases and data from epidemiological investigations are reported was used as a data source for the purposes of the present analysis. In addition, two final reports on epidemic outbreaks of viral hepatitis A from 2014 were assessed. The incidence of viral hepatitis A at the regional level follows, to a certain extent, the pattern of the incidence of this disease at the national level. The highest number of cases was reported in 2010 due to a country-wide epidemic. The most affected age groups were children, adolescents, and young adults. The incidence of viral hepatitis A in individual years has a significant effect on the emergence of local outbreaks. The incidence of viral hepatitis A in the Czech Republic has a fluctuating trend, at both the national and regional levels. The highest incidence of viral hepatitis A was observed in the younger and middle-age categories. The high susceptibility of these population groups suggests the importance of vaccination against viral hepatitis A that confers specific personal protection.Key words: viral hepatitis A - incidence - outbreak - Czech Republic.

Establishing a milkborne disease outbreak profile: potential food defense implications.

PubMed

Newkirk, Ryan; Hedberg, Craig; Bender, Jeff

2011-03-01

The main objectives of this study were to establish baseline characteristics for milkborne outbreaks, establish an expected milkborne outbreak profile, and identify potential indicators of food terrorism. This study used 1990-2006 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Annual Listings of Disease Outbreaks and the Foodborne Outbreak Database (FOOD) to establish epidemiologic baseline characteristics for disease outbreaks associated with fluid milk. FOOD data from 2007 were used to qualitatively validate the potential of the baseline characteristics and the expected outbreak profile. Eighty-three fluid milkborne outbreaks were reported between 1990 and 2006, resulting in 3621 illnesses. The mean number of illnesses per outbreak was 43.6 (illness range: 2-1644). Consumption of unpasteurized milk was associated with 55.4% of reported outbreaks. Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli, and Salmonella spp. caused 51.2%, 10.8%, and 9.6% of reported outbreaks, respectively. Private homes accounted for 41.0% of outbreak locations. Number ill, outbreak location, and etiology were the primary characteristics which could signal a potential intentional contamination event. In 2007, one pasteurized milk outbreak caused by Listeria was flagged as aberrative compared with the expected outbreak profile. The creation and dissemination of expected outbreak profiles and epidemiologic baseline characteristics allow public health and Homeland Security officials to quickly assess the potential of intentional food contamination. A faster public health and medical system response can result in decreased morbidity and mortality.

[Epidemiological characteristics of influenza outbreaks in China, 2005-2013].

PubMed

Li, Ming; Feng, Luzhao; Cao, Yu; Peng, Zhibin; Yu, Hongjie

2015-07-01

To understand the epidemiological characteristics of influenza outbreaks in China from 2005 to 2013. The data of influenza-like illness outbreaks involving 10 or more cases were collected through Public Health Emergency Management Information System and National Influenza Surveillance Information System in China, and the influenza outbreaks were identified according to the laboratory detection results. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to understand the type/subtype of influenza virus and outbreak time, area, place and extent. From 2005 to 2013, a total of 3 252 influenza-like illness outbreaks were reported in the mainland of China, in which 2 915 influenza outbreaks were laboratory confirmed, and influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus and influenza B virus were predominant. More influenza outbreaks were reported in the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic during 2009-2010. Influenza outbreaks mainly occurred during winter-spring, and less influenza outbreaks occurred in winter and summer vacations of schools. More influenza outbreaks were reported in southern provinces, accounting for 79% of the total. Influenza outbreaks mainly occurred in primary and middle schools, where 2 763 outbreaks were reported, accounting for 85% of the total. Average 30-99 people were involved in an outbreak. A large number of influenza outbreaks occur during influenza season every year in China, the predominant virus type or subtype varies with season. Primary and middle schools are mainly affected by influenza outbreaks.

Antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella that caused foodborne disease outbreaks: United States, 2003–2012

PubMed Central

BROWN, A. C.; GRASS, J. E.; RICHARDSON, L. C.; NISLER, A. L.; BICKNESE, A. S.; GOULD, L. H.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Although most non-typhoidal Salmonella illnesses are self-limiting, antimicrobial treatment is critical for invasive infections. To describe resistance in Salmonella that caused foodborne outbreaks in the United States, we linked outbreaks submitted to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System to isolate susceptibility data in the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System. Resistant outbreaks were defined as those linked to one or more isolates with resistance to at least one antimicrobial drug. Multidrug resistant (MDR) outbreaks had at least one isolate resistant to three or more antimicrobial classes. Twenty-one per cent (37/176) of linked outbreaks were resistant. In outbreaks attributed to a single food group, 73% (16/22) of resistant outbreaks and 46% (31/68) of non-resistant outbreaks were attributed to foods from land animals (P < 0.05). MDR Salmonella with clinically important resistance caused 29% (14/48) of outbreaks from land animals and 8% (3/40) of outbreaks from plant products (P < 0.01). In our study, resistant Salmonella infections were more common in outbreaks attributed to foods from land animals than outbreaks from foods from plants or aquatic animals. Antimicrobial susceptibility data on isolates from foodborne Salmonella outbreaks can help determine which foods are associated with resistant infections. PMID:27919296

Antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella that caused foodborne disease outbreaks: United States, 2003-2012.

PubMed

Brown, A C; Grass, J E; Richardson, L C; Nisler, A L; Bicknese, A S; Gould, L H

2017-03-01

Although most non-typhoidal Salmonella illnesses are self-limiting, antimicrobial treatment is critical for invasive infections. To describe resistance in Salmonella that caused foodborne outbreaks in the United States, we linked outbreaks submitted to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System to isolate susceptibility data in the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System. Resistant outbreaks were defined as those linked to one or more isolates with resistance to at least one antimicrobial drug. Multidrug resistant (MDR) outbreaks had at least one isolate resistant to three or more antimicrobial classes. Twenty-one per cent (37/176) of linked outbreaks were resistant. In outbreaks attributed to a single food group, 73% (16/22) of resistant outbreaks and 46% (31/68) of non-resistant outbreaks were attributed to foods from land animals (P < 0·05). MDR Salmonella with clinically important resistance caused 29% (14/48) of outbreaks from land animals and 8% (3/40) of outbreaks from plant products (P < 0·01). In our study, resistant Salmonella infections were more common in outbreaks attributed to foods from land animals than outbreaks from foods from plants or aquatic animals. Antimicrobial susceptibility data on isolates from foodborne Salmonella outbreaks can help determine which foods are associated with resistant infections.

Increase in outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to bathing water in Finland in summer 2014

PubMed Central

Kauppinen, Ari; Al-Hello, Haider; Zacheus, Outi; Kilponen, Jaana; Maunula, Leena; Huusko, Sari; Lappalainen, Maija; Miettinen, Ilkka; Blomqvist, Soile; Rimhanen-Finne, Ruska

2017-01-01

An increased number of suspected outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to bathing water were reported to the Finnish food- and waterborne outbreak (FWO) registry in July and August 2014. The investigation reports were assessed by a national outbreak investigation panel. Eight confirmed outbreaks were identified among the 15 suspected outbreaks linked to bathing water that had been reported to the FWO registry. According to the outbreak investigation reports, 1,453 persons fell ill during these outbreaks. Epidemiological and microbiological data revealed noroviruses as the main causative agents. During the outbreaks, exceptionally warm weather had boosted the use of beaches. Six of eight outbreaks occurred at small lakes; for those, the investigation strongly suggested that the beach users were the source of contamination. In one of those eight outbreaks, an external source of contamination was identified and elevated levels of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) were noted in water. In the remaining outbreaks, FIB analyses were insufficient to describe the hygienic quality of the water. Restrictions against bathing proved effective in controlling the outbreaks. In spring 2015, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and the National Supervisory Authority for Welfare and Health (Valvira) published guidelines for outbreak control to prevent bathing water outbreaks. PMID:28251888

Fresh Produce-Associated Listeriosis Outbreaks, Sources of Concern, Teachable Moments, and Insights.

PubMed

Garner, Danisha; Kathariou, Sophia

2016-02-01

Foodborne transmission of Listeria monocytogenes was first demonstrated through the investigation of the 1981 Maritime Provinces outbreak involving coleslaw. In the following two decades, most listeriosis outbreaks involved foods of animal origin, e.g., deli meats, hot dogs, and soft cheeses. L. monocytogenes serotype 4b, especially epidemic clones I, II, and Ia, were frequently implicated in these outbreaks. However, since 2008 several outbreaks have been linked to diverse types of fresh produce: sprouts, celery, cantaloupe, stone fruit, and apples. The 2011 cantaloupe-associated outbreak was one of the deadliest foodborne outbreaks in recent U.S. history. This review discusses produce-related outbreaks of listeriosis with a focus on special trends, unusual findings, and potential paradigm shifts. With the exception of sprouts, implicated produce types were novel, and outbreaks were one-time events. Several involved serotype 1/2a, and in the 2011 cantaloupe-associated outbreak, serotype 1/2b was for the first time conclusively linked to a common-source outbreak of invasive listeriosis. Also in this outbreak, for the first time multiple strains were implicated in a common-source outbreak. In 2014, deployment of whole genome sequencing as part of outbreak investigation validated this technique as a pivotal tool for outbreak detection and speedy resolution. In spite of the unusual attributes of produce-related outbreaks, in all but one of the investigated cases (the possible exception being the coleslaw outbreak) contamination was traced to the same sources as those for outbreaks associated with other vehicles (e.g., deli meats), i.e., the processing environment and equipment. The public health impact of farm-level contamination remains uncharacterized. This review highlights knowledge gaps regarding virulence and other potentially unique attributes of produce outbreak strains, the potential for novel fresh produce items to become unexpectedly implicated in outbreaks, and the key role of good control strategies in the processing environment.

THE CHALLENGE OF DETECTING CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER VIRUS CIRCULATION IN WILD BOAR (SUS SCROFA): SIMULATION OF SAMPLING OPTIONS.

PubMed

Sonnenburg, Jana; Schulz, Katja; Blome, Sandra; Staubach, Christoph

2016-10-01

Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important viral diseases of domestic pigs ( Sus scrofa domesticus) and wild boar ( Sus scrofa ). For at least 4 decades, several European Union member states were confronted with outbreaks among wild boar and, as it had been shown that infected wild boar populations can be a major cause of primary outbreaks in domestic pigs, strict control measures for both species were implemented. To guarantee early detection and to demonstrate freedom from disease, intensive surveillance is carried out based on a hunting bag sample. In this context, virologic investigations play a major role in the early detection of new introductions and in regions immunized with a conventional vaccine. The required financial resources and personnel for reliable testing are often large, and sufficient sample sizes to detect low virus prevalences are difficult to obtain. We conducted a simulation to model the possible impact of changes in sample size and sampling intervals on the probability of CSF virus detection based on a study area of 65 German hunting grounds. A 5-yr period with 4,652 virologic investigations was considered. Results suggest that low prevalences could not be detected with a justifiable effort. The simulation of increased sample sizes per sampling interval showed only a slightly better performance but would be unrealistic in practice, especially outside the main hunting season. Further studies on other approaches such as targeted or risk-based sampling for virus detection in connection with (marker) antibody surveillance are needed.

Raccoon contact networks predict seasonal susceptibility to rabies outbreaks and limitations of vaccination.

PubMed

Reynolds, Jennifer J H; Hirsch, Ben T; Gehrt, Stanley D; Craft, Meggan E

2015-11-01

Infectious disease transmission often depends on the contact structure of host populations. Although it is often challenging to capture the contact structure in wild animals, new technology has enabled biologists to obtain detailed temporal information on wildlife social contacts. In this study, we investigated the effects of raccoon contact patterns on rabies spread using network modelling. Raccoons (Procyon lotor) play an important role in the maintenance of rabies in the United States. It is crucial to understand how contact patterns influence the spread of rabies in raccoon populations in order to design effective control measures and to prevent transmission to human populations and other animals. We constructed a dynamic system of contact networks based on empirical data from proximity logging collars on a wild suburban raccoon population and then simulated rabies spread across these networks. Our contact networks incorporated the number and duration of raccoon interactions. We included differences in contacts according to sex and season, and both short-term acquaintances and long-term associations. Raccoons may display different behaviours when infectious, including aggression (furious behaviour) and impaired mobility (dumb behaviour); the network model was used to assess the impact of potential behavioural changes in rabid raccoons. We also tested the effectiveness of different vaccination coverage levels. Our results demonstrate that when rabies enters a suburban raccoon population, the likelihood of a disease outbreak affecting the majority of the population is high. Both the magnitude of rabies outbreaks and the speed of rabies spread depend strongly on the time of year that rabies is introduced into the population. When there is a combination of dumb and furious behaviours in the rabid raccoon population, there are similar outbreak sizes and speed of spread to when there are no behavioural changes due to rabies infection. By incorporating detailed data describing the variation in raccoon contact rates into a network modelling approach, we were able to show that suburban raccoon populations are highly susceptible to rabies outbreaks, that the risk of large outbreaks varies seasonally and that current vaccination target levels may be inadequate to prevent the spread of rabies within these populations. Our findings provide new insights into rabies dynamics in raccoon populations and have important implications for disease control. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Outbreaks attributed to pork in the United States, 1998-2015.

PubMed

Self, J L; Luna-Gierke, R E; Fothergill, A; Holt, K G; Vieira, A R

2017-10-01

Each year in the United States, an estimated 525 000 infections, 2900 hospitalizations, and 82 deaths are attributed to consumption of pork. We analyzed the epidemiology of outbreaks attributed to pork in the United States reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 1998-2015. During that period, 288 outbreaks were attributed to pork, resulting in 6372 illnesses, 443 hospitalizations, and four deaths. The frequency of outbreaks attributed to pork decreased by 37% during this period, consistent with a decline in total foodborne outbreaks. However, outbreaks attributed to pork increased by 73% in 2015 (19 outbreaks) compared with the previous 3 years (average of 11 outbreaks per year), without a similar increase in total foodborne outbreaks. Most (>99%) of these outbreaks occurred among people exposed in the same state. The most frequent etiology shifted from Staphylococcus aureus toxin during 1998-2001 (19%) to Salmonella during 2012-2015 (46%). Outbreaks associated with ham decreased from eight outbreaks per year during 1998-2001, to one per year during 2012-2015 (P < 0·01). Additional efforts are necessary to reduce outbreaks and sporadic illnesses associated with pork products.

Investigating the size, shape and surface roughness dependence of polarization lidars with light-scattering computations on real mineral dust particles: Application to dust particles' external mixtures and dust mass concentration retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehri, Tahar; Kemppinen, Osku; David, Grégory; Lindqvist, Hannakaisa; Tyynelä, Jani; Nousiainen, Timo; Rairoux, Patrick; Miffre, Alain

2018-05-01

Our understanding of the contribution of mineral dust to the Earth's radiative budget is limited by the complexity of these particles, which present a wide range of sizes, are highly-irregularly shaped, and are present in the atmosphere in the form of particle mixtures. To address the spatial distribution of mineral dust and atmospheric dust mass concentrations, polarization lidars are nowadays frequently used, with partitioning algorithms allowing to discern the contribution of mineral dust in two or three-component particle external mixtures. In this paper, we investigate the dependence of the retrieved dust backscattering (βd) vertical profiles with the dust particle size and shape. For that, new light-scattering numerical simulations are performed on real atmospheric mineral dust particles, having determined mineralogy (CAL, DOL, AGG, SIL), derived from stereogrammetry (stereo-particles), with potential surface roughness, which are compared to the widely-used spheroidal mathematical shape model. For each dust shape model (smooth stereo-particles, rough stereo-particles, spheroids), the dust depolarization, backscattering Ångström exponent, lidar ratio are computed for two size distributions representative of mineral dust after long-range transport. As an output, two Saharan dust outbreaks involving mineral dust in two, then three-component particle mixtures are studied with Lyon (France) UV-VIS polarization lidar. If the dust size matters most, under certain circumstances, βd can vary by approximately 67% when real dust stereo-particles are used instead of spheroids, corresponding to variations in the dust backscattering coefficient as large as 2 Mm- 1·sr- 1. Moreover, the influence of surface roughness in polarization lidar retrievals is for the first time discussed. Finally, dust mass-extinction conversion factors (ηd) are evaluated for each assigned shape model and dust mass concentrations are retrieved from polarization lidar measurements. From spheroids to stereo-particles, ηd increases by about 30%. We believe these results may be useful for our understanding of the spatial distribution of mineral dust contained in an aerosol external mixture and to better quantify dust mass concentrations from polarization lidar experiments.

Characterizing Ebola Transmission Patterns Based on Internet News Reports

PubMed Central

Cleaton, Julie M.; Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Hurtado, Ana M.; Chowell, Gerardo

2016-01-01

Background. Detailed information on patient exposure, contact patterns, and discharge status is rarely available in real time from traditional surveillance systems in the context of an emerging infectious disease outbreak. Here, we validate the systematic collection of Internet news reports to characterize epidemiological patterns of Ebola virus disease (EVD) infections during the West African 2014–2015 outbreak. Methods. Based on 58 news reports, we analyzed 79 EVD clusters (286 cases) ranging in size from 1 to 33 cases between January 2014 and February 2015 in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Results. The majority of reported exposures stemmed from contact with family members (57.3%) followed by hospitals (18.2%) and funerals (12.7%). Our data indicate that funeral exposure was significantly more frequent in Sierra Leone (27.3%) followed by Guinea (18.2%) and Liberia (1.8%; χ2 test; P < .0001). Funeral exposure was the dominant route of transmission until April 2014 (60%) and was replaced with hospital exposure in June 2014–July 2014 (70%), both of which declined after interventions were put in place. The mean reproduction number of the outbreak was 2.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8, 2.7). The case fatality rate was estimated at 74.4% (95% CI, 68.3, 79.8). Conclusions. Overall, our findings based on news reports are in close agreement with those derived from traditional epidemiological surveillance data and with those reported for prior outbreaks. Our findings support the use of real-time information from trustworthy news reports to provide timely estimates of key epidemiological parameters that may be hard to ascertain otherwise. PMID:26338786

Outbreak-related mumps vaccine effectiveness among a cohort of children and of young adults in Germany 2011

PubMed Central

Takla, Anja; Böhmer, Merle M; Klinc, Christina; Kurz, Norbert; Schaffer, Alice; Stich, Heribert; Stöcker, Petra; Wichmann, Ole; Koch, Judith

2014-01-01

Mumps outbreaks in populations with high 2-dose vaccination coverage and among young adults are increasingly reported. However, data on the duration of vaccine-induced protection conferred by mumps vaccines are scarce. As part of a supra-regional outbreak in Germany 2010/11, we conducted two retrospective cohort studies in a primary school and among adult ice hockey teams to determine mumps vaccine effectiveness (VE). Via questionnaires we collected information on demography, clinical manifestations, and reviewed vaccination cards. We estimated VE as 1-RR, RR being the rate ratio of disease among two-times or one-time mumps-vaccinated compared with unvaccinated persons. The response rate was 92.6% (100/108—children cohort) and 91.7% (44/48—adult cohort). Fourteen cases were identified in the children and 6 in the adult cohort. In the children cohort (mean age: 9 y), 2-dose VE was 91.9% (95% CI 81.0–96.5%). In the adult cohort (mean age: 26 y), no cases occurred among the 13 2-times vaccinated, while 1-dose VE was 50.0% (95% CI –9.4–87.1%). Average time since last vaccination showed no significant difference for cases and non-cases, but cases were younger at age of last mumps vaccination (children cohort: 2 vs. 3 y, P = 0.04; adult cohort: 1 vs. 4 y, P = 0.03). We did not observe signs of waning immunity in the children cohort. Due to the small sample size VE in the adult cohort should be interpreted with caution. Given the estimated VE, very high 2-dose vaccination coverage is required to prevent future outbreaks. Intervention efforts to increase coverage must especially target young adults who received <2 vaccinations during childhood. PMID:24091837

Outbreak-related mumps vaccine effectiveness among a cohort of children and of young adults in Germany 2011.

PubMed

Takla, Anja; Böhmer, Merle M; Klinc, Christina; Kurz, Norbert; Schaffer, Alice; Stich, Heribert; Stöcker, Petra; Wichmann, Ole; Koch, Judith

2014-01-01

Mumps outbreaks in populations with high 2-dose vaccination coverage and among young adults are increasingly reported. However, data on the duration of vaccine-induced protection conferred by mumps vaccines are scarce. As part of a supra-regional outbreak in Germany 2010/11, we conducted two retrospective cohort studies in a primary school and among adult ice hockey teams to determine mumps vaccine effectiveness (VE). Via questionnaires we collected information on demography, clinical manifestations, and reviewed vaccination cards. We estimated VE as 1-RR, RR being the rate ratio of disease among two-times or one-time mumps-vaccinated compared with unvaccinated persons. The response rate was 92.6% (100/108--children cohort) and 91.7% (44/48--adult cohort). Fourteen cases were identified in the children and 6 in the adult cohort. In the children cohort (mean age: 9 y), 2-dose VE was 91.9% (95% CI 81.0-96.5%). In the adult cohort (mean age: 26 y), no cases occurred among the 13 2-times vaccinated, while 1-dose VE was 50.0% (95% CI -9.4-87.1%). Average time since last vaccination showed no significant difference for cases and non-cases, but cases were younger at age of last mumps vaccination (children cohort: 2 vs. 3 y, P=0.04; adult cohort: 1 vs. 4 y, P=0.03). We did not observe signs of waning immunity in the children cohort. Due to the small sample size VE in the adult cohort should be interpreted with caution. Given the estimated VE, very high 2-dose vaccination coverage is required to prevent future outbreaks. Intervention efforts to increase coverage must especially target young adults who received<2 vaccinations during childhood.

Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by young children in French households.

PubMed

Delignette-Muller, M L; Cornu, M

2008-11-30

A quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by children under 10 years of age in French households was conducted by a national study group describing an outbreak which occurred in France in 2005. Our exposure assessment model incorporates results from French surveys on consumption frequency of ground beef patties, serving size and consumption preference, microbial destruction experiments and microbial counts on patties sampled from the industrial batch which were responsible for the outbreak. Two different exposure models were proposed, respectively for children under the age of 5 and for children between 5 and 10 years. For each of these two age groups, a single-hit dose-response model was proposed to describe the probability of hemolytic and uremic syndrome (HUS) as a function of the ingested dose. For each group, the single parameter of this model was estimated by Bayesian inference, using the results of the exposure assessment and the epidemiological data collected during the outbreak. Results show that children under 5 years of age are roughly 5 times more susceptible to the pathogen than children over 5 years. Exposure and dose-response models were used in a scenario analysis in order to validate the use of the model and to propose appropriate guidelines in order to prevent new outbreaks. The impact of the cooking preference was evaluated, showing that only a well-done cooking notably reduces the HUS risk, without annulling it. For each age group, a relation between the mean individual HUS risk per serving and the contamination level in a ground beef batch was proposed, as a tool to help French risk managers.

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

PubMed

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Local discrepancies in measles vaccination opportunities: results of population-based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The World Health Organization recommends African children receive two doses of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine programs or supplemental immunization activities (SIA). Moreover, children have an additional opportunity to receive MCV through outbreak response immunization (ORI) mass campaigns in certain contexts. Here, we present the results of MCV coverage by dose estimated through surveys conducted after outbreak response in diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We included 24 household-based surveys conducted in six countries after a non-selective mass vaccination campaign. In the majority (22/24), the survey sample was selected using probability proportional to size cluster-based sampling. Others used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling. Results In total, data were collected on 60,895 children from 2005 to 2011. Routine coverage varied between countries (>95% in Malawi and Kirundo province (Burundi) while <35% in N’Djamena (Chad) in 2005), within a country and over time. SIA coverage was <75% in most settings. ORI coverage ranged from >95% in Malawi to 71.4% [95% CI: 68.9-73.8] in N’Djamena (Chad) in 2005. In five sites, >5% of children remained unvaccinated after several opportunities. Conversely, in Malawi and DRC, over half of the children eligible for the last SIA received a third dose of MCV. Conclusions Control pre-elimination targets were still not reached, contributing to the occurrence of repeated measles outbreak in the Sub-Saharan African countries reported here. Although children receiving a dose of MCV through outbreak response benefit from the intervention, ensuring that programs effectively target hard to reach children remains the cornerstone of measles control. PMID:24559281

Surveillance for waterborne disease and outbreaks associated with recreational water use and other aquatic facility-associated health events--United States, 2005-2006.

PubMed

Yoder, Jonathan S; Hlavsa, Michele C; Craun, Gunther F; Hill, Vincent; Roberts, Virginia; Yu, Patricia A; Hicks, Lauri A; Alexander, Nicole T; Calderon, Rebecca L; Roy, Sharon L; Beach, Michael J

2008-09-12

Since 1971, CDC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists have collaboratively maintained the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System for collecting and reporting data related to waterborne-disease outbreaks (WBDOs) associated with drinking water. In 1978, WBDOs associated with recreational water (natural and treated water) were added. This system is the primary source of data regarding the scope and effects of disease associated with recreational water in the United States. In addition, data are collected on individual cases of recreational water-associated illnesses and infections and health events occurring at aquatic facilities but not directly related to water exposure. Data presented summarize WBDOs and case reports associated with recreational water use that occurred during January 2005--December 2006 and previously unreported disease reports and outbreaks during 1978--2004. Public health departments in the states, territories, localities, and the Freely Associated States (i.e., the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Palau, formerly parts of the U.S.-administered Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands) have primary responsibility for detecting, investigating, and voluntarily reporting WBDOs to CDC. Although the surveillance system includes data for WBDOs and cases associated with drinking water, recreational water, and water not intended for drinking, only cases and outbreaks associated with recreational water and health events at aquatic facilities are summarized in this report. During 2005--2006, a total of 78 WBDOs associated with recreational water were reported by 31 states. Illness occurred in 4,412 persons, resulting in 116 hospitalizations and five deaths. The median outbreak size was 13 persons (range: 2--2,307 persons). Of the 78 WBDOs, 48 (61.5%) were outbreaks of gastroenteritis that resulted from infectious agents or chemicals; 11 (14.1%) were outbreaks of acute respiratory illness; and 11 (14.1%) were outbreaks of dermatitis or other skin conditions. The remaining eight were outbreaks of leptospirosis (n = two), primary amebic meningoencephalitis (n = one), and mixed or other illnesses (n = five). WBDOs associated with gastroenteritis resulted in 4,015 (91.0%) of 4,412 illnesses. Fifty-eight (74.4%) WBDOs occurred at treated water venues, resulting in 4,167 (94.4%) cases of illness. The etiologic agent was confirmed in 62 (79.5%) of the 78 WBDOs, suspected in 12 (15.4%), and unidentified in four (5.1%). Thirty-four (43.6%) WBDOs had a parasitic etiology; 22 (28.2%), bacterial; four (5.1%), viral; and two (2.6%), chemical or toxin. Among the 48 gastroenteritis outbreaks, Cryptosporidium was confirmed as the causal agent in 31 (64.6%), and all except two of these outbreaks occurred in treated water venues where Cryptosporidium caused 82.9% (29/35) of the gastroenteritis outbreaks. Case reports associated with recreational water exposure that were discussed and analyzed separately from outbreaks include three fatal Naegleria cases and 189 Vibrio illnesses reported to the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance System. For Vibrio reporting, the most commonly reported species were Vibrio vulnificus, V. alginolyticus, and V. parahaemolyticus. V. vulnificus illnesses associated with recreational water exposure had the highest Vibrio illness hospitalization (77.6%) and mortality (22.4%) rates. In addition, 32 aquatic facility-related health events not associated with recreational water use (e.g., pool chemical mixing accidents) that occurred during 1983--2006 were received from New York. These events, which caused illness in 364 persons, are included in this report but analyzed separately. The number of WBDOs summarized in this report and the trends in recreational water-associated disease and outbreaks demonstrate a substantial increase in number of reports from previous years. Outbreaks, especially the largest ones, occurred more frequently in the summer at treated water venues and caused gastrointestinal illness. Deficiencies leading to WBDOs included problems with water-quality, venue design, usage, and maintenance. Case reports of illness associated with recreational water use expand our understanding of the scope of waterborne illness by further underscoring the contribution of less well-recognized swimming venues (e.g., oceans) and illness (e.g., nongastrointestinal illness). Aquatic facilities are also a focus for injuries involving chemicals or equipment used routinely in the operation of swimming venues, thus illustrating the lack of training of some aquatics staff. CDC uses WBDO surveillance data to 1) identify the etiologic agents, types of aquatic venues, water-treatment systems, and deficiencies associated with outbreaks and case reports; 2) evaluate the adequacy of efforts (i.e., regulations and public awareness activities) to provide safe recreational water; 3) expand the scope of understanding about waterborne disease and health events associated with swimming and aquatics facilities; and 4) establish public health prevention priorities, data, and messaging that might lead to improved regulations, guidelines, and prevention measures at the local, state, and federal levels.

Controlling nosocomial infection based on structure of hospital social networks.

PubMed

Ueno, Taro; Masuda, Naoki

2008-10-07

Nosocomial infection (i.e. infection in healthcare facilities) raises a serious public health problem, as implied by the existence of pathogens characteristic to healthcare facilities such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and hospital-mediated outbreaks of influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome. For general communities, epidemic modeling based on social networks is being recognized as a useful tool. However, disease propagation may occur in a healthcare facility in a manner different from that in a urban community setting due to different network architecture. We simulate stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics on social networks, which are based on observations in a hospital in Tokyo, to explore effective containment strategies against nosocomial infection. The observed social networks in the hospital have hierarchical and modular structure in which dense substructure such as departments, wards, and rooms, are globally but only loosely connected, and do not reveal extremely right-skewed distributions of the number of contacts per individual. We show that healthcare workers, particularly medical doctors, are main vectors (i.e. transmitters) of diseases on these networks. Intervention methods that restrict interaction between medical doctors and their visits to different wards shrink the final epidemic size more than intervention methods that directly protect patients, such as isolating patients in single rooms. By the same token, vaccinating doctors with priority rather than patients or nurses is more effective. Finally, vaccinating individuals with large betweenness centrality (frequency of mediating connection between pairs of individuals along the shortest paths) is superior to vaccinating ones with large connectedness to others or randomly chosen individuals, which was suggested by previous model studies.

The Accounting Network: How Financial Institutions React to Systemic Crisis

PubMed Central

Puliga, Michelangelo; Flori, Andrea; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Chessa, Alessandro; Pammolli, Fabio

2016-01-01

The role of Network Theory in the study of the financial crisis has been widely spotted in the latest years. It has been shown how the network topology and the dynamics running on top of it can trigger the outbreak of large systemic crisis. Following this methodological perspective we introduce here the Accounting Network, i.e. the network we can extract through vector similarities techniques from companies’ financial statements. We build the Accounting Network on a large database of worldwide banks in the period 2001–2013, covering the onset of the global financial crisis of mid-2007. After a careful data cleaning, we apply a quality check in the construction of the network, introducing a parameter (the Quality Ratio) capable of trading off the size of the sample (coverage) and the representativeness of the financial statements (accuracy). We compute several basic network statistics and check, with the Louvain community detection algorithm, for emerging communities of banks. Remarkably enough sensible regional aggregations show up with the Japanese and the US clusters dominating the community structure, although the presence of a geographically mixed community points to a gradual convergence of banks into similar supranational practices. Finally, a Principal Component Analysis procedure reveals the main economic components that influence communities’ heterogeneity. Even using the most basic vector similarity hypotheses on the composition of the financial statements, the signature of the financial crisis clearly arises across the years around 2008. We finally discuss how the Accounting Networks can be improved to reflect the best practices in the financial statement analysis. PMID:27736865

The Accounting Network: How Financial Institutions React to Systemic Crisis.

PubMed

Puliga, Michelangelo; Flori, Andrea; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Chessa, Alessandro; Pammolli, Fabio

2016-01-01

The role of Network Theory in the study of the financial crisis has been widely spotted in the latest years. It has been shown how the network topology and the dynamics running on top of it can trigger the outbreak of large systemic crisis. Following this methodological perspective we introduce here the Accounting Network, i.e. the network we can extract through vector similarities techniques from companies' financial statements. We build the Accounting Network on a large database of worldwide banks in the period 2001-2013, covering the onset of the global financial crisis of mid-2007. After a careful data cleaning, we apply a quality check in the construction of the network, introducing a parameter (the Quality Ratio) capable of trading off the size of the sample (coverage) and the representativeness of the financial statements (accuracy). We compute several basic network statistics and check, with the Louvain community detection algorithm, for emerging communities of banks. Remarkably enough sensible regional aggregations show up with the Japanese and the US clusters dominating the community structure, although the presence of a geographically mixed community points to a gradual convergence of banks into similar supranational practices. Finally, a Principal Component Analysis procedure reveals the main economic components that influence communities' heterogeneity. Even using the most basic vector similarity hypotheses on the composition of the financial statements, the signature of the financial crisis clearly arises across the years around 2008. We finally discuss how the Accounting Networks can be improved to reflect the best practices in the financial statement analysis.

Case characteristics among Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and non-outbreak cases in Saudi Arabia from 2012 to 2015.

PubMed

Alhamlan, F S; Majumder, M S; Brownstein, J S; Hawkins, J; Al-Abdely, H M; Alzahrani, A; Obaid, D A; Al-Ahdal, M N; BinSaeed, A

2017-01-12

As of 1 November 2015, the Saudi Ministry of Health had reported 1273 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); among these cases, which included 9 outbreaks at several hospitals, 717 (56%) patients recovered, 14 (1%) remain hospitalised and 543 (43%) died. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological, demographic and clinical characteristics that distinguished cases of MERS contracted during outbreaks from those contracted sporadically (ie, non-outbreak) between 2012 and 2015 in Saudi Arabia. Data from the Saudi Ministry of Health of confirmed outbreak and non-outbreak cases of MERS coronavirus (CoV) infections from September 2012 through October 2015 were abstracted and analysed. Univariate and descriptive statistical analyses were conducted, and the time between disease onset and confirmation, onset and notification and onset and death were examined. A total of 1250 patients (aged 0-109 years; mean, 50.825 years) were reported infected with MERS-CoV. Approximately two-thirds of all MERS cases were diagnosed in men for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Healthcare workers comprised 22% of all MERS cases for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Nosocomial infections comprised one-third of all Saudi MERS cases; however, nosocomial infections occurred more frequently in outbreak than non-outbreak cases (p<0.001). Patients contracting MERS during an outbreak were significantly more likely to die of MERS (p<0.001). To date, nosocomial infections have fuelled MERS outbreaks. Given that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a worldwide religious travel destination, localised outbreaks may have massive global implications and effective outbreak preventive measures are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Case characteristics among Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and non-outbreak cases in Saudi Arabia from 2012 to 2015

PubMed Central

Alhamlan, F S; Majumder, M S; Brownstein, J S; Hawkins, J; Al-Abdely, H M; Alzahrani, A; Obaid, D A; Al-Ahdal, M N; BinSaeed, A

2017-01-01

Objectives As of 1 November 2015, the Saudi Ministry of Health had reported 1273 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); among these cases, which included 9 outbreaks at several hospitals, 717 (56%) patients recovered, 14 (1%) remain hospitalised and 543 (43%) died. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological, demographic and clinical characteristics that distinguished cases of MERS contracted during outbreaks from those contracted sporadically (ie, non-outbreak) between 2012 and 2015 in Saudi Arabia. Design Data from the Saudi Ministry of Health of confirmed outbreak and non-outbreak cases of MERS coronavirus (CoV) infections from September 2012 through October 2015 were abstracted and analysed. Univariate and descriptive statistical analyses were conducted, and the time between disease onset and confirmation, onset and notification and onset and death were examined. Results A total of 1250 patients (aged 0–109 years; mean, 50.825 years) were reported infected with MERS-CoV. Approximately two-thirds of all MERS cases were diagnosed in men for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Healthcare workers comprised 22% of all MERS cases for outbreak and non-outbreak cases. Nosocomial infections comprised one-third of all Saudi MERS cases; however, nosocomial infections occurred more frequently in outbreak than non-outbreak cases (p<0.001). Patients contracting MERS during an outbreak were significantly more likely to die of MERS (p<0.001). Conclusions To date, nosocomial infections have fuelled MERS outbreaks. Given that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a worldwide religious travel destination, localised outbreaks may have massive global implications and effective outbreak preventive measures are needed. PMID:28082362

Age of initial cohort of dengue patients could explain the origin of disease outbreak in a setting: a case control study in Rajasthan, India.

PubMed

Angel, Annette; Angel, Bennet; Yadav, Karuna; Sharma, Neha; Joshi, Vinod; Thanvi, Indu; Thanvi, Sharad

2017-06-01

Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a public health problem with 390 million cases reported in world annually. In Rajasthan, DF with DHF is being reported for about two decades. For undertaking interventions into disease transmission, locating origin of transmission is very important. Present paper reports retrospective analysis of the hospital reported cases of dengue during the year 2013-2014 undertaken in Barmer, Rajasthan. To address task of investigating outbreak, detailed analysis of the data on serological test results (Mac-ELISA assay of NS1, IgG and IgM) performed by local hospital, Balotra was made. The domestic breeding containers were examined for the presence of larvae and adult forms of Aedes aegypti by visiting individual households as well as common places of human aggregation like schools and hospitals. The analysis showed that first dengue cases started from the lot of school going children and then followed by adults and finally during peak period of infection only children around 1-2 years got infected. The subsequent entomological investigations during the outbreak showed school as principal source of mosquito breeding. Present investigations highlight that schools (March to April) play the role of primary sites of disease transmission and should be preferred for undertaking vector control operations to prevent dengue transmission from getting aggravated.

[The environment and its impact on health: old risks, new risks].

PubMed

Ordóñez-Iriarte, José M; Gómez, María E; Sánchez, J Ignacio; Fernández-Aguado, Carmen; López, Rosa; Ferrer, José B

2004-05-01

The objective of this article is to investigate three representative elements of environmental health from a geographical perspective taking the Autonomous Community as the unit of analysis: legionnaire's disease, chemical safety and food safety. Legionnaire's disease is a pathology with a specific epidemiological profile; males, adults, and with previous chronic pathologies and habits. The official response, with regard to recent outbreaks and the increase in the incidence of legionnaire's disease, has differed between autonomous communities due to peculiarities and different organizational cultures. Both the sinking of the ship Prestige and the accident at the oil refinery at Puertollano (Ciudad Real) have increased concern in the population about chemical substances, so familiar in our environment. However it is not only the big accidents which are relevant: it is surprising to learn that most of the registered poisonings are due to domestic cleaning goods. The pending challenge from the Public Health point of view is to elaborate the Report on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemical Agents which, undoubtedly, will help to establish differences between type and class. Finally, the number of outbreaks of food poisoning continues to be of concern; this should lead us to think about the effectiveness of food safety programmes and to focus on the home, being place where most of the outbreaks occur. The General Sanitary Inspection of Food ought to be a good tool to help improve food safety.

Molecular Epidemiology of Invasive Listeriosis due to Listeria monocytogenes in a Spanish Hospital over a Nine-Year Study Period, 2006–2014

PubMed Central

Ariza-Miguel, Jaime; Fernández-Natal, María Isabel; Soriano, Francisco; Hernández, Marta; Stessl, Beatrix; Rodríguez-Lázaro, David

2015-01-01

We investigated the pathogenicity, invasiveness, and genetic relatedness of 17 clinical Listeria monocytogenes stains isolated over a period of nine years (2006–2014). All isolates were phenotypically characterised and growth patterns were determined. The antimicrobial susceptibility of L. monocytogenes isolates was determined in E-tests. Invasion assays were performed with epithelial HeLa cells. Finally, L. monocytogenes isolates were subtyped by PFGE and MLST. All isolates had similar phenotypic characteristics (β-haemolysis and lecithinase activity), and three types of growth curve were observed. Bacterial recovery rates after invasion assays ranged from 0.09% to 7.26% (1.62 ± 0.46). MLST identified 11 sequence types (STs), and 14 PFGE profiles were obtained, indicating a high degree of genetic diversity. Genetic studies unequivocally revealed the occurrence of one outbreak of listeriosis in humans that had not previously been reported. This outbreak occurred in October 2009 and affected three patients from neighbouring towns. In conclusion, the molecular epidemiological analysis clearly revealed a cluster (three human cases, all ST1) of not previously reported listeriosis cases in northwestern Spain. Our findings indicate that molecular subtyping, in combination with epidemiological case analysis, is essential and should be implemented in routine diagnosis, to improve the tracing of the sources of outbreaks. PMID:26539467

A susceptible-infected model of early detection of respiratory infection outbreaks on a background of influenza

PubMed Central

Mohtashemi, Mojdeh; Szolovits, Peter; Dunyak, James; Mandl, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

The threat of biological warfare and the emergence of new infectious agents spreading at a global scale have highlighted the need for major enhancements to the public health infrastructure. Early detection of epidemics of infectious diseases requires both real-time data and real-time interpretation of data. Despite moderate advancements in data acquisition, the state of the practice for real-time analysis of data remains inadequate. We present a nonlinear mathematical framework for modeling the transient dynamics of influenza, applied to historical data sets of patients with influenza-like illness. We estimate the vital time-varying epidemiological parameters of infections from historical data, representing normal epidemiological trends. We then introduce simulated outbreaks of different shapes and magnitudes into the historical data, and estimate the parameters representing the infection rates of anomalous deviations from normal trends. Finally, a dynamic threshold-based detection algorithm is devised to assess the timeliness and sensitivity of detecting the irregularities in the data, under a fixed low false-positive rate. We find that the detection algorithm can identify such designated abnormalities in the data with high sensitivity with specificity held at 97%, but more importantly, early during an outbreak. The proposed methodology can be applied to a broad range of influenza-like infectious diseases, whether naturally occurring or a result of bioterrorism, and thus can be an integral component of a real-time surveillance system. PMID:16556450

Timing and Order of Transmission Events Is Not Directly Reflected in a Pathogen Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan; Skar, Helena; Bulla, Ingo; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas

2014-01-01

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters. PMID:24874208

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests.

PubMed

Haynes, Kyle J; Allstadt, Andrew J; Klimetzek, Dietrich

2014-06-01

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insect species, we examined a 212-year record (1800-2011) of outbreaks of five pine-defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate-driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high-frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high-frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine-defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven; Cammarata, Michael

2003-01-01

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

The H1N1 pandemic: media frames, stigmatization and coping.

PubMed

McCauley, Michael; Minsky, Sara; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2013-12-03

Throughout history, people have soothed their fear of disease outbreaks by searching for someone to blame. Such was the case with the April 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak. Mexicans and other Latinos living in the US were quickly stigmatized by non-Latinos as carriers of the virus, partly because of news reports on the outbreak's alleged origin in Mexican pig farms. In this exploratory study we examined the psychological processes of cue convergence and associative priming, through which many people likely conflated news of the H1N1 outbreak with pre-existing cognitive scripts that blamed Latino immigrants for a variety of social problems. We also used a transactional model of stress and coping to analyze the transcripts from five focus groups, in order to examine the ways in which a diverse collection of New England residents appraised the threat of H1N1, processed information about stereotypes and stigmas, and devised personal strategies to cope with these stressors. Twelve themes emerged in the final wave of coding, with most of them appearing at distinctive points in the stress and coping trajectories of focus group participants. Primary and secondary appraisals were mostly stressful or negative, with participants born in the USA reporting more stressful responses than those who were not. Latino participants reported no stressful primary appraisals, but spoke much more often than Whites or Non-Hispanic Blacks about negative secondary appraisals. When interactions between participants dealt with stigmas regarding Latinos and H1N1, Latinos in our focus groups reported using far more negative coping strategies than Whites or Non-Hispanic Blacks. When discussions did not focus on stereotypes or stigmas, Latino participants spoke much more often about positive coping strategies compared to members of these same groups. Participants in all five focus groups went through a similar process of stress and coping in response to the threat of H1N1, though individual responses varied by race and ethnicity. Stigmatization has often been common during pandemics, and public health and emergency preparedness practitioners can help to mitigate its impacts by developing interventions to address the social stressors that occur during outbreaks in highly-localized geographic regions.

Transmissible gastroenteritis virus: plaques and a plaque neutralization test.

PubMed Central

Thomas, F C; Dulac, G C

1976-01-01

A plaquing system and plaque neutralization test in porcine thyroid cells were used to study different transmissible gastroenteritis isolates and hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. Among transmissible gastroenteritis virus isolates, plaque size varied considerably and mixed size ranges sometimes occurred. The most recently isolated viruses produced smaller plaques than the laboratory viruses or hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. All transmissible gastroenteritis virus isolates reacted in the plaque neutralization test with a transmissible gastroenteritis virus antiserum which showed no activity against hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. Plaque neutralization results both from experimentally infected pigs and following a field outbreak demonstrated the reliability of this test and its greater sensitivity than the conventional tube test. Images Fig. 1. PMID:187296

Listeriosis Outbreaks and Associated Food Vehicles, United States, 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Cartwright, Emily J.; Jackson, Kelly A.; Johnson, Shacara D.; Graves, Lewis M.; Mahon, Barbara E.

2013-01-01

Listeria monocytogenes, a bacterial foodborne pathogen, can cause meningitis, bacteremia, and complications during pregnancy. This report summarizes listeriosis outbreaks reported to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1998–2008. The study period includes the advent of PulseNet (a national molecular subtyping network for outbreak detection) in 1998 and the Listeria Initiative (enhanced surveillance for outbreak investigation) in 2004. Twenty-four confirmed listeriosis outbreaks were reported during 1998–2008, resulting in 359 illnesses, 215 hospitalizations, and 38 deaths. Outbreaks earlier in the study period were generally larger and longer. Serotype 4b caused the largest number of outbreaks and outbreak-associated cases. Ready-to-eat meats caused more early outbreaks, and novel vehicles (i.e., sprouts, taco/nacho salad) were associated with outbreaks later in the study period. These changes may reflect the effect of PulseNet and the Listeria Initiative and regulatory initiatives designed to prevent contamination in ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. PMID:23260661

Ebola Virus Vaccines – reality or fiction?

PubMed Central

Mire, Chad E.; Geisbert, Thomas W.; Feldmann, Heinz

2016-01-01

For 40 years ebolaviruses have been responsible for sporadic outbreaks of severe and often fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates. In December 2013 an unprecedented Zaire ebolavirus epidemic began in West Africa. Although “patient zero” has finally been reached after 2 years, the virus is again causing disease in the region. Currently there are no licensed vaccines or therapeutic countermeasures against ebolaviruses; however, the epidemic in West Africa has focused attention on the potential vaccine platforms developed over the past 15 years. There has been remarkable progress using a variety of platforms including DNA, subunit, and several viral vector approaches, replicating and non-replicating, which have shown varying degrees of protective efficacy in the “gold-standard” nonhuman primate models for Ebolavirus infections. A number of these vaccine platforms have moved into clinical trials over the past year with the hope of finding an efficacious vaccine to prevent future outbreaks/epidemics of Ebola hemorrhagic fever on the scale of the West African epidemic. PMID:27078187

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions. [Atmospheric Variability Experiment-Severe Environmental Storm and Mesoscale Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Meyer, P. J.

1984-01-01

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

A CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system-based express vaccine development strategy against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus.

PubMed

Liang, Xun; Sun, Leqiang; Yu, Teng; Pan, Yongfei; Wang, Dongdong; Hu, Xueying; Fu, Zhenfang; He, Qigai; Cao, Gang

2016-01-18

Virus evolves rapidly to escape vaccine-induced immunity, posing a desperate demand for efficient vaccine development biotechnologies. Here we present an express vaccine development strategy based on CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus, which caused the recent devastating swine pseudorabies outbreak in China. By CRISPR/Cas9 system, the virulent genes of the newly isolated strain were simultaneously substituted by marker genes, which were subsequently excised using Cre/Lox system for vaccine safety concern. Notably, single cell FACS technology was applied to further promote virus purification efficiency. The combination of these state-of-art technologies greatly accelerated vaccine development. Finally, vaccination and challenge experiments proved this vaccine candidate's protective efficacy in pigs and the promise to control current pseudorabies outbreak. This is, to our knowledge, the first successful vaccine development based on gene edit technologies, demonstrating these technologies leap from laboratory to industry. It may pave the way for future express antiviral vaccine development.

A CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system-based express vaccine development strategy against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus

PubMed Central

Liang, Xun; Sun, Leqiang; Yu, Teng; Pan, Yongfei; Wang, Dongdong; Hu, Xueying; Fu, Zhenfang; He, Qigai; Cao, Gang

2016-01-01

Virus evolves rapidly to escape vaccine-induced immunity, posing a desperate demand for efficient vaccine development biotechnologies. Here we present an express vaccine development strategy based on CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus, which caused the recent devastating swine pseudorabies outbreak in China. By CRISPR/Cas9 system, the virulent genes of the newly isolated strain were simultaneously substituted by marker genes, which were subsequently excised using Cre/Lox system for vaccine safety concern. Notably, single cell FACS technology was applied to further promote virus purification efficiency. The combination of these state-of-art technologies greatly accelerated vaccine development. Finally, vaccination and challenge experiments proved this vaccine candidate’s protective efficacy in pigs and the promise to control current pseudorabies outbreak. This is, to our knowledge, the first successful vaccine development based on gene edit technologies, demonstrating these technologies leap from laboratory to industry. It may pave the way for future express antiviral vaccine development. PMID:26777545

Linking Low-Frequency Large-Scale Circulation Patterns to Cold Air Outbreak Formation in the Northeastern North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papritz, L.; Grams, C. M.

2018-03-01

The regional variability of wintertime marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the northeastern North Atlantic is studied focusing on the role of weather regimes in modulating the large-scale circulation. Each regime is characterized by a typical CAO frequency anomaly pattern and a corresponding imprint in air-sea heat fluxes. Cyclonically dominated regimes, Greenland blocking and the Atlantic ridge regime are found to provide favorable conditions for CAO formation in at least one major sea of the study region; CAO occurrence is suppressed, however, by blocked regimes whose associated anticyclones are centered over northern Europe (European / Scandinavian blocking). Kinematic trajectories reveal that strength and location of the storm tracks are closely linked to the pathways of CAO air masses and, thus, CAO occurrence. Finally, CAO frequencies are also linked to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, which is understood in terms of associated variations in the frequency of weather regimes.

Surveillance for waterborne-disease outbreaks--United States, 1995-1996.

PubMed

Levy, D A; Bens, M S; Craun, G F; Calderon, R L; Herwaldt, B L

1998-12-11

Since 1971, CDC and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have maintained a collaborative surveillance system for collecting and periodically reporting data that relate to occurrences and causes of waterborne-disease outbreaks (WBDOs). This summary includes data for January 1995 through December 1996 and previously unreported outbreaks in 1994. The surveillance system includes data about outbreaks associated with drinking water and recreational water. State, territorial, and local public health departments are primarily responsible for detecting and investigating WBDOs and for voluntarily reporting them to CDC on a standard form. For the period 1995-1996, 13 states reported a total of 22 outbreaks associated with drinking water. These outbreaks caused an estimated total of 2,567 persons to become ill. No deaths were reported. The microbe or chemical that caused the outbreak was identified for 14 (63.6%) of the 22 outbreaks. Giardia lamblia and Shigella sonnei each caused two (9.1%) of the 22 outbreaks; Escherichia coli O157:H7, Plesiomonas shigelloides, and a small round structured virus were implicated for one outbreak (4.5%) each. One of the two outbreaks of giardiasis involved the largest number of cases, with an estimated 1,449 ill persons. Seven outbreaks (31.8% of 22) of chemical poisoning, which involved a total of 90 persons, were reported. Copper and nitrite were associated with two outbreaks (9.1% of 22) each and sodium hydroxide, chlorine, and concentrated liquid soap with one outbreak (4.5%) each. Eleven (50.0%) of the 22 outbreaks were linked to well water, eight in noncommunity and three in community systems. Only three of the 10 outbreaks associated with community water systems were caused by problems at water treatment plants; the other seven resulted from problems in the water distribution systems and plumbing of individual facilities (e.g., a restaurant). Six of the seven outbreaks were associated with chemical contamination of the drinking water; the seventh outbreak was attributed to a small round structured virus. Four of the seven outbreaks occurred because of backflow or backsiphonage through a cross-connection, and two occurred because of high levels of copper that leached into water after the installation of new plumbing. For three of the four outbreaks caused by contamination from a cross-connection, an improperly installed vacuum breaker or a faulty backflow prevention device was identified; no protection against backsiphonage was found for the fourth outbreak. Thirty-seven outbreaks from 17 states were attributed to recreational water exposure and affected an estimated 9,129 persons, including 8,449 persons in two large outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Twenty-two (59.5%) of these 37 were outbreaks of gastroenteritis; nine (24.3%) were outbreaks of dermatitis; and six (16.2%) were single cases of primary amebic meningoencephalitis caused by Naegleria fowleri, all of which were fatal. The etiologic agent was identified for 33 (89.2%) of the 37 outbreaks. Six (27.3%) of the 22 outbreaks of gastroenteritis were caused by Cryptosporidium parvum and six (27.3%) by E. coli O157:H7. All of the latter were associated with unchlorinated water (i.e., in lakes) or inadequately chlorinated water (i.e., in a pool). Thirteen (59.1%) of these 22 outbreaks were associated with lake water, eight (36.4%) with swimming or wading pools, and one(4.5%) with a hot spring. Of the nine outbreaks of dermatitis, seven (77.8%) were outbreaks of Pseudomonas dermatitis associated with hot tubs, and two (22.2%) were lake-associated outbreaks of swimmer's itch caused by Schistosoma species. WBDOs caused by E. coli O157:H7 were reported more frequently than in previous years and were associated primarily with recreational lake water. This finding suggests the need for better monitoring of water quality and identification of sources of

Food Source Prediction of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Outbreaks Using Demographic and Outbreak Characteristics, United States, 1998-2014.

PubMed

White, Alice; Cronquist, Alicia; Bedrick, Edward J; Scallan, Elaine

2016-10-01

Foodborne illness is a continuing public health problem in the United States. Although outbreak-associated illnesses represent a fraction of all foodborne illnesses, foodborne outbreak investigations provide critical information on the pathogens, foods, and food-pathogen pairs causing illness. Therefore, identification of a food source in an outbreak investigation is key to impacting food safety. The objective of this study was to systematically identify outbreak-associated case demographic and outbreak characteristics that are predictive of food sources using Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) outbreaks reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 1998 to 2014 with a single ingredient identified. Differences between STEC food sources by all candidate predictors were assessed univariately. Multinomial logistic regression was used to build a prediction model, which was internally validated using a split-sample approach. There were 206 single-ingredient STEC outbreaks reported to CDC, including 125 (61%) beef outbreaks, 30 (14%) dairy outbreaks, and 51 (25%) vegetable outbreaks. The model differentiated food sources, with an overall sensitivity of 80% in the derivation set and 61% in the validation set. This study demonstrates the feasibility for a tool for public health professionals to rule out food sources during hypothesis generation in foodborne outbreak investigation and to improve efficiency while complementing existing methods.

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Smith, Gary; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA – after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban – as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania. PMID:22169708

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

PubMed

Feldstein, Leora R; Brownstein, John S; Brady, Oliver J; Hay, Simon I; Johansson, Michael A

2015-05-01

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear. We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks. Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4-16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings. This analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledge of global determinants of dengue risk and provides a basis for understanding the ecology of dengue endemicity. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Investigation of elevated case-fatality rate in poliomyelitis outbreak in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, 2010.

PubMed

Gregory, Christopher J; Ndiaye, Serigne; Patel, Minal; Hakizamana, Elisaphan; Wannemuehler, Kathleen; Ndinga, Edouard; Chu, Susan; Talani, Pascal; Kretsinger, Katrina

2012-11-15

Multiple cases of paralysis, often resulting in death, occurred among young adults during a wild poliovirus (WPV) type 1 outbreak in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, in 2010. We conducted an investigation to identify factors associated with fatal outcomes among persons with poliomyelitis in Pointe Noire. Polio cases were defined as acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases reported from 7 October to 7 December 2010 with either a stool specimen positive for WPV or clinically classified as polio-compatible. Data were obtained from medical records, hospital databases, AFP case investigation forms and, when possible, via interviews with persons with polio or surrogates using a standard questionnaire. A total of 369 polio cases occurred in Pointe Noire between 7 October and 7 December 2010. Median age was 22 years for nonsurvivors and 18 years for survivors (P = .01). Small home size, as defined by ≤2 rooms, use of a well for drinking water during a water shortage, and age ≥15 years were risk factors for death in multivariate analysis. Consideration should be given during polio risk assessment planning and outbreak response to water/sanitation status and potential susceptibility to polio in older children and adults. Serosurveys to estimate immunity gaps in older age groups in countries at high risk of polio importation might be useful to guide preparedness and response planning.

A cluster of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections with the hemolytic-uremic syndrome and death in California. A mandate for improved surveillance.

PubMed Central

Shefer, A M; Koo, D; Werner, S B; Mintz, E D; Baron, R; Wells, J G; Barrett, T J; Ginsberg, M; Bryant, R; Abbott, S; Griffin, P M

1996-01-01

In mid-January 1993, an outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections associated with eating hamburger patties at a fast-food restaurant chain (chain A) was reported in Washington State. From mid-December to mid-January, 9 cases of E coli O157:H7-associated bloody diarrhea and the hemolytic-uremic syndrome had been reported in San Diego County, California. A total of 34 persons had bloody diarrhea, the hemolytic-uremic syndrome, or E coli O157:H7 organisms isolated from stool during the period November 15, 1992, through January 31, 1993. Organisms of E coli O157:H7 identified from 6 persons were indistinguishable from those of the Washington outbreak strain. Illness was associated with eating at chain A restaurants in San Diego (odds ratio, 13; 95% confidence interval, 1.7, 99) and with eating regular-sized hamburgers (odds ratio, undefined; lower-limit 95% confidence interval, 1.3). Improved surveillance by mandating laboratory- and physician-based reporting of cases of E coli O157:H7 infection and the hemolytic-uremic syndrome might have alerted health officials to this outbreak sooner, which could have resulted in earlier investigation and the institution of measures to prevent more cases. Images Figure 1. PMID:8855679

Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Tildesley, Michael J; Ryan, Sadie J

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.

Serologic Evidence of Ebolavirus Infection in a Population With No History of Outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

PubMed

Mulangu, Sabue; Alfonso, Vivian H; Hoff, Nicole A; Doshi, Reena H; Mulembakani, Prime; Kisalu, Neville K; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Kebela, Benoit Ilunga; Marcus, Hadar; Shiloach, Joseph; Phue, Je-Nie; Wright, Linda L; Muyembe-Tamfum, Jean-Jacques; Sullivan, Nancy J; Rimoin, Anne W

2018-01-30

Previous studies suggest that cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) may go unreported because they are asymptomatic or unrecognized, but evidence is limited by study designs and sample size. A large population-based survey was conducted (n = 3415) to assess animal exposures and behaviors associated with Ebolavirus antibody prevalence in rural Kasai Oriental province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Fourteen villages were randomly selected and all healthy individuals ≥1 year of age were eligible. Overall, 11% of subjects tested positive for Zaire Ebolavirus (EBOV) immunoglobulin G antibodies. Odds of seropositivity were higher for study participants older than 15 years of age and for males. Those residing in Kole (closer to the outbreak site) tested positive at a rate 1.6× higher than Lomela, with seropositivity peaking at a site located between Kole and Lomela. Multivariate analyses of behaviors and animal exposures showed that visits to the forest or hunting and exposure to rodents or duikers predicted a higher likelihood of EBOV seropositivity. These results provide serologic evidence of Ebolavirus exposure in a population residing in non-EBOV outbreak locations in the DRC and define statistically significant activities and animal exposures that associate with EBOV seropositivity. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Ryan, Sadie J.

2012-01-01

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock. PMID:23133352

A series of abnormal climatic conditions caused the most severe outbreak of first-generation adults of the meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis L.) in China.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao; Zeng, Juan; Zhai, Baoping

2016-06-01

The meadow moth, Loxostege sticticalis L., is a destructive migratory pest in the northern temperate zone. The outbreak mechanism of first-generation adults in China remains unclear. In 2008, the density of first-generation larvae was very low or even negligible in most sites in China. However, a great number of first-generation adults appeared unexpectedly in late July, and their offspring caused the most severe infestation on record. The present study aims to determine where the large influx of immigrant adults originated from and how this unprecedented population was established. Source areas were explored by trajectory analysis, and climatic patterns related to the population increase were investigated. Results showed that the outbreak population mainly immigrated from Northeast Mongolia and the Chita State of Russia, and the buildup of such a large population could be attributed to an exceptional northward migration of overwintered adults from North China to East Mongolia in the spring of 2007 and unusually favourable climatic conditions in the next two growth seasons. These results indicated that the population dynamics of meadow moth in Northeast Asia would be difficult to predict when only considering local climatic factors and population size within one country. International joint monitoring and information sharing related to this pest between China, Mongolia and Russia should be implemented.

Asymmetric competition prevents the outbreak of an opportunistic species after coral reef degradation.

PubMed

González-Rivero, Manuel; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Chollett, Iliana; Ferrari, Renata; Schönberg, Christine H L; Mumby, Peter J

2016-05-01

Disturbance releases space and allows the growth of opportunistic species, excluded by the old stands, with a potential to alter community dynamics. In coral reefs, abundances of fast-growing, and disturbance-tolerant sponges are expected to increase and dominate as space becomes available following acute coral mortality events. Yet, an increase in abundance of these opportunistic species has been reported in only a few studies, suggesting certain mechanisms may be acting to regulate sponge populations. To gain insights into mechanisms of population control, we simulated the dynamics of the common reef-excavating sponge Cliona tenuis in the Caribbean using an individual-based model. An orthogonal hypothesis testing approach was used, where four candidate mechanisms-algal competition, stock-recruitment limitation, whole and partial mortality-were incorporated sequentially into the model and the results were tested against independent field observations taken over a decade in Belize, Central America. We found that releasing space after coral mortality can promote C. tenuis outbreaks, but such outbreaks can be curtailed by macroalgal competition. The asymmetrical competitive superiority of macroalgae, given by their capacity to pre-empt space and outcompete with the sponge in a size-dependant fashion, supports their capacity to steal the opportunity from other opportunists. While multiple system stages can be expected in coral reefs following intense perturbation macroalgae may prevent the growth of other space-occupiers, such as bioeroding sponges, under low grazing pressure.

Effective surveillance strategies following a potential classical Swine Fever incursion in a remote wild pig population in North-Western Australia.

PubMed

Leslie, E; Cowled, B; Graeme Garner, M; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P

2014-10-01

Early disease detection and efficient methods of proving disease freedom can substantially improve the response to incursions of important transboundary animal diseases in previously free regions. We used a spatially explicit, stochastic disease spread model to simulate the spread of classical swine fever in wild pigs in a remote region of northern Australia and to assess the performance of disease surveillance strategies to detect infection at different time points and to delineate the size of the resulting outbreak. Although disease would likely be detected, simple random sampling was suboptimal. Radial and leapfrog sampling improved the effectiveness of surveillance at various stages of the simulated disease incursion. This work indicates that at earlier stages, radial sampling can reduce epidemic length and achieve faster outbreak delineation and control, but at later stages leapfrog sampling will outperform radial sampling in relation to supporting faster disease control with a less-extensive outbreak area. Due to the complexity of wildlife population dynamics and group behaviour, a targeted approach to surveillance needs to be implemented for the efficient use of resources and time. Using a more situation-based surveillance approach and accounting for disease distribution and the time period over which an epidemic has occurred is the best way to approach the selection of an appropriate surveillance strategy. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A series of abnormal climatic conditions caused the most severe outbreak of first-generation adults of the meadow moth ( Loxostege sticticalis L.) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiao; Zeng, Juan; Zhai, Baoping

2016-06-01

The meadow moth, Loxostege sticticalis L., is a destructive migratory pest in the northern temperate zone. The outbreak mechanism of first-generation adults in China remains unclear. In 2008, the density of first-generation larvae was very low or even negligible in most sites in China. However, a great number of first-generation adults appeared unexpectedly in late July, and their offspring caused the most severe infestation on record. The present study aims to determine where the large influx of immigrant adults originated from and how this unprecedented population was established. Source areas were explored by trajectory analysis, and climatic patterns related to the population increase were investigated. Results showed that the outbreak population mainly immigrated from Northeast Mongolia and the Chita State of Russia, and the buildup of such a large population could be attributed to an exceptional northward migration of overwintered adults from North China to East Mongolia in the spring of 2007 and unusually favourable climatic conditions in the next two growth seasons. These results indicated that the population dynamics of meadow moth in Northeast Asia would be difficult to predict when only considering local climatic factors and population size within one country. International joint monitoring and information sharing related to this pest between China, Mongolia and Russia should be implemented.

A Statistical Framework for Microbial Source Attribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Velsko, S P; Allen, J E; Cunningham, C T

2009-04-28

This report presents a general approach to inferring transmission and source relationships among microbial isolates from their genetic sequences. The outbreak transmission graph (also called the transmission tree or transmission network) is the fundamental structure which determines the statistical distributions relevant to source attribution. The nodes of this graph are infected individuals or aggregated sub-populations of individuals in which transmitted bacteria or viruses undergo clonal expansion, leading to a genetically heterogeneous population. Each edge of the graph represents a transmission event in which one or a small number of bacteria or virions infects another node thus increasing the size ofmore » the transmission network. Recombination and re-assortment events originate in nodes which are common to two distinct networks. In order to calculate the probability that one node was infected by another, given the observed genetic sequences of microbial isolates sampled from them, we require two fundamental probability distributions. The first is the probability of obtaining the observed mutational differences between two isolates given that they are separated by M steps in a transmission network. The second is the probability that two nodes sampled randomly from an outbreak transmission network are separated by M transmission events. We show how these distributions can be obtained from the genetic sequences of isolates obtained by sampling from past outbreaks combined with data from contact tracing studies. Realistic examples are drawn from the SARS outbreak of 2003, the FMDV outbreak in Great Britain in 2001, and HIV transmission cases. The likelihood estimators derived in this report, and the underlying probability distribution functions required to calculate them possess certain compelling general properties in the context of microbial forensics. These include the ability to quantify the significance of a sequence 'match' or 'mismatch' between two isolates; the ability to capture non-intuitive effects of network structure on inferential power, including the 'small world' effect; the insensitivity of inferences to uncertainties in the underlying distributions; and the concept of rescaling, i.e. ability to collapse sub-networks into single nodes and examine transmission inferences on the rescaled network.« less

Analysis of outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease in Ireland: 1998 and 1999.

PubMed

Bonner, C; Foley, B; Wall, P; Fitzgerald, M

2001-05-01

Surveillance of general outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis was introduced in 1998 by the Food Safety Authority of Ireland (FSAI), in co-operation with the eight health boards. A total of 67 general outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Ireland were reported to the FSAI in 1998 and 1999. Over 1900 people were ill as a result of these outbreaks. Four percent required hospitalisation and there were two deaths. The duration of the outbreaks varied between one day and 38 days. Salmonellae (44%) and small round structured viruses (SRSV) (12%) were the most commonly reported pathogens. In 25% of the outbreaks the aetiology was unknown. The commonest settings were restaurants, hotels and take-aways, which accounted for 45% (30/67) of all outbreaks. Sixteen percent of all outbreaks occurred in hospitals and residential institutions. Over half of the outbreaks were reported to be foodborne, 63% of which were due to various serotypes of Salmonella enterica. Eggs were implicated as the vehicle of infection in 13% of all outbreaks. An infected food handler was identified in almost one third of outbreaks, although it could not be established if this had contributed directly to the outbreak.

Human Body Size in Military Aircraft and Personal Equipment

DTIC Science & Technology

1946-06-01

manufacturers and others for use in the manufacti or purchase of supplies, or for any other purpose, the Goernment assumes responsibility nor obligation... responsibility ’ of the designer and the manufacturer to h’ave provided:tolerancesin the plane in’ order to insure efficient installation of the equipment...ional dependability. At the out-break of Y;orld Tar II, the Army Air Forces had no responsibility .n the development and procurement of flying clothing

Low and Mid Level Tropical Atmosphere Characterization during African Dust Outbreaks Using Particle Size Distribution Data Retrieved from ICE-T and PRADACS Field Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Sánchez, O.; Mayol-Bracero, O. L.; Sepulveda-Vallejo, P.; Heymsfield, A.

2013-12-01

Cloud formation in the tropical atmosphere is difficult to characterize when factors such as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) play a role influencing the dynamic and thermodynamic processes. In order to characterize particle number size distribution across the Eastern Caribbean with the possible influence of African dust at low and mid levels, data collected during July 2011 from ground-based instruments and an aircraft platform were analyzed. Aerosol measurements from the ocean surface to ~8 km were performed below and in and around clouds by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) C130 aircraft during the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) using the Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (PCASP), while low-level measurements of aerosols were performed at the University of Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras Campus (UPRRP) during the Puerto Rican African Dust and Cloud Study (PRADACS) using an Optical Particle Counter (OPC) and a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS). Preliminary results using HYSPLIT back trajectories, flight tracks, SAL images and OPC/SMPS/PCASP time series all indicate peaks and troughs in aerosol concentrations at both low and mid levels over time, but the concentration was influenced by how strong the dust outbreak was as well as its horizontal travel speed. These and additional results regarding correlations between wind directions, cloud cover and atmospheric inversions will be presented.

Outbreaks of influenza-like illness in long-term care facilities in Winnipeg, Canada.

PubMed

Mahmud, Salaheddin M; Thompson, Laura H; Nowicki, Deborah L; Plourde, Pierre J

2013-11-01

Outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI) are common in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) and result in significant morbidity and mortality among residents. We describe patterns of reported ILI outbreaks in LTCFs in Winnipeg, Canada, and examine LTCF and outbreak characteristics that influence the clinical outcomes of these outbreaks. We analyzed the electronic records of all ILI outbreaks reported by LTCFs in Winnipeg from 2003 to 2011. Outbreak duration, ILI attack rates among staff and residents, and residents' death rates were calculated by presumed viral etiology, staff vaccination rates, type of influenza chemoprophylaxis used, and time to notification to public health. Of a total of 154 reported outbreaks, most (N=80) were attributed to influenza, and these outbreaks tended to have higher attack and death rates among LTCF residents compared with outbreaks caused by other respiratory viruses (12) or those of unknown etiology (62). About 92% of residents and 38% of staff of the average LTCFs were vaccinated. Chemoprophylaxis was used in 57·5% of influenza outbreaks. Regardless of presumed viral etiology, outbreaks reported within 3 days of onset ended sooner and had lower attack and mortality rates among residents. Influenza-like illness outbreaks still occur among highly immunized LTCF residents, so in addition to vaccination of staff and residents, it is important to maintain competent infection control practices. Early identification and notification to public health authorities and possibly early initiation of control measures could improve clinical outcomes of ILI outbreaks. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Associated With Environmental and Undetermined Exposures to Water - United States, 2013-2014.

PubMed

McClung, R Paul; Roth, David M; Vigar, Marissa; Roberts, Virginia A; Kahler, Amy M; Cooley, Laura A; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Wade, Timothy J; Fullerton, Kathleen E; Yoder, Jonathan S; Hill, Vincent R

2017-11-10

Waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States are associated with a wide variety of water exposures and are reported annually to CDC on a voluntary basis by state and territorial health departments through the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS). A majority of outbreaks arise from exposure to drinking water (1) or recreational water (2), whereas others are caused by an environmental exposure to water or an undetermined exposure to water. During 2013-2014, 15 outbreaks associated with an environmental exposure to water and 12 outbreaks with an undetermined exposure to water were reported, resulting in at least 289 cases of illness, 108 hospitalizations, and 17 deaths. Legionella was responsible for 63% of the outbreaks, 94% of hospitalizations, and all deaths. Outbreaks were also caused by Cryptosporidium, Pseudomonas, and Giardia, including six outbreaks of giardiasis caused by ingestion of water from a river, stream, or spring. Water management programs can effectively prevent outbreaks caused by environmental exposure to water from human-made water systems, while proper point-of-use treatment of water can prevent outbreaks caused by ingestion of water from natural water systems.

The impact of horizontal resolution on the representation of air-sea interaction over North Atlantic open ocean convection sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Kent; Renfrew, Ian; Bromwich, David; Wilson, Aaron; Vage, Kjetil; Bai, Lesheng

2017-04-01

Open ocean convection, where a loss of surface buoyancy leads to an overturning of the water column, occurs in four distinct regions of the North Atlantic and is an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The overturning typically occurs during cold air outbreaks characterized by large surface turbulent heat fluxes and convective roll cloud development. Here we compare the statistics of the air-sea interaction over these convection sites as represented in three reanalyses with horizontal grid sizes ranging from 80km to 15km. We show that increasing the resolution increases the magnitude and frequency of the most extreme total turbulent heat fluxes, as well as displacing the maxima downstream away from the ice edges. We argue that these changes are a result of the higher resolution reanalysis being better able to represent mesoscale processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer during cold air outbreaks.

Mixed-order phase transition in a two-step contagion model with a single infectious seed.

PubMed

Choi, Wonjun; Lee, Deokjae; Kahng, B

2017-02-01

Percolation is known as one of the most robust continuous transitions, because its occupation rule is intrinsically local. As one of the ways to break the robustness, occupation is allowed to more than one species of particles and they occupy cooperatively. This generalized percolation model undergoes a discontinuous transition. Here we investigate an epidemic model with two contagion steps and characterize its phase transition analytically and numerically. We find that even though the order parameter jumps at a transition point r_{c}, then increases continuously, it does not exhibit any critical behavior: the fluctuations of the order parameter do not diverge at r_{c}. However, critical behavior appears in mean outbreak size, which diverges at the transition point in a manner that the ordinary percolation shows. Such a type of phase transition is regarded as a mixed-order phase transition. We also obtain scaling relations of cascade outbreak statistics when the order parameter jumps at r_{c}.

Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James

A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.

The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks.

PubMed

Vinson, John E; Drake, John M; Rohani, Pejman; Park, Andrew W

2016-06-01

Recent evidence suggests that sexual contact may give rise to transmission of Ebola virus long after infection has been cleared from blood. We develop a simple mathematical model that incorporates contact transmission and sexual transmission parametrized from data relating to the 2013-2015 West African Ebola epidemic. The model explores scenarios where contact transmission is reduced following infection events, capturing behaviour change, and quantifies how these actions reducing transmission may be compromised by sexual transmission in terms of increasing likelihood, size and duration of outbreaks. We characterize the extent to which sexual transmission operates in terms of the probability of initial infection resolving to sexual infectiousness and the sexual transmission rate, and relate these parameters to the overall case burden. We find that sexual transmission can have large effects on epidemic dynamics (increasing attack ratios from 25% in scenarios without sexual transmission but with contact-transmission-reducing behaviour, up to 80% in equivalent scenarios with sexual transmission). © 2016 The Author(s).

Interdigitated microelectrode based impedance biosensor for detection of salmonella enteritidis in food samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, G.; Morgan, M.; Hahm, B. K.; Bhunia, A.; Mun, J. H.; Om, A. S.

2008-03-01

Salmonella enteritidis outbreaks continue to occur, and S. enteritidis-related outbreaks from various food sources have increased public awareness of this pathogen. Conventional methods for pathogens detection and identification are labor-intensive and take days to complete. Some immunological rapid assays are developed, but these assays still require prolonged enrichment steps. Recently developed biosensors have shown great potential for the rapid detection of foodborne pathogens. To develop the biosensor, an interdigitated microelectrode (IME) was fabricated by using semiconductor fabrication process. Anti-Salmonella antibodies were immobilized based on avidin-biotin binding on the surface of the IME to form an active sensing layer. To increase the sensitivity of the sensor, three types of sensors that have different electrode gap sizes (2 μm, 5 μm, 10 μm) were fabricated and tested. The impedimetric biosensor could detect 103 CFU/mL of Salmonella in pork meat extract with an incubation time of 5 minutes. This method may provide a simple, rapid and sensitive method to detect foodborne pathogens.

Environmental swabs as a tool in norovirus outbreak investigation, including outbreaks on cruise ships.

PubMed

Boxman, Ingeborg L A; Dijkman, Remco; te Loeke, Nathalie A J M; Hägele, Geke; Tilburg, Jeroen J H C; Vennema, Harry; Koopmans, Marion

2009-01-01

In this study, we investigated whether environmental swabs can be used to demonstrate the presence of norovirus in outbreak settings. First, a procedure was set up based on viral RNA extraction using guanidium isothiocyanate buffer and binding of nucleic acids to silica. Subsequently, environmental swabs were taken at 23 Dutch restaurants and four cruise ships involved in outbreaks of gastroenteritis. Outbreaks were selected based on clinical symptoms consistent with viral gastroenteritis and time between consumption of suspected food and onset of clinical symptoms (>12 h). Norovirus RNA was demonstrated by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR in 51 of 86 (59%) clinical specimens from 12 of 14 outbreaks (86%), in 13 of 90 (14%) food specimens from 4 of 18 outbreaks (22%), and in 48 of 119 (40%) swab specimens taken from 14 of 27 outbreaks (52%). Positive swab samples agreed with positive clinical samples in seven outbreaks, showing identical sequences. Furthermore, norovirus was detected on swabs taken from kitchen and bathroom surfaces in five outbreaks in which no clinical samples were collected and two outbreaks with negative fecal samples. The detection rate was highest for outbreaks associated with catered meals and lowest for restaurant-associated outbreaks. The use of environmental swabs may be a useful tool in addition to testing of food and clinical specimens, particularlywhen viral RNA is detected on surfaces used for food preparation.

Shellfish-associated enteric virus illness: virus localization, disease outbreaks and prevention

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous outbreaks of shellfish-borne enteric virus illness have been reported worldwide. Most notable among the outbreaks are those involving norovirus illness and hepatitis A. Lessons learned from outbreak investigations indicate that most outbreaks are preventable. Anthropogenic sources of con...

Vaccine coverage and determinants of incomplete vaccination in children aged 12-23 months in Dschang, West Region, Cameroon: a cross-sectional survey during a polio outbreak.

PubMed

Russo, Gianluca; Miglietta, Alessandro; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Biguioh, Rodrigue Mabvouna; Bouting Mayaka, Georges; Sobze, Martin Sanou; Stefanelli, Paola; Vullo, Vincenzo; Rezza, Giovanni

2015-07-10

Inadequate immunization coverage with increased risk of vaccine preventable diseases outbreaks remains a problem in Africa. Moreover, different factors contribute to incomplete vaccination status. This study was performed in Dschang (West Region, Cameroon), during the polio outbreak occurred in October 2013, in order to estimate the immunization coverage among children aged 12-23 months, to identify determinants for incomplete vaccination status and to assess the risk of poliovirus spread in the study population. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in November-December 2013, using the WHO two-stage sampling design. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to obtain information from consenting parents of children aged 12-23 months. Vaccination coverage was assessed by vaccination card and parents' recall. Chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression model were used to identify the determinants of incomplete immunization status. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Overall, 3248 households were visited and 502 children were enrolled. Complete immunization coverage was 85.9% and 84.5%, according to card plus parents' recall and card only, respectively. All children had received at least one routine vaccination, the OPV-3 (Oral Polio Vaccine) coverage was >90%, and 73.4% children completed the recommended vaccinations before 1-year of age. In the final multilevel logistic regression model, factors significantly associated with incomplete immunization status were: retention of immunization card (AOR: 7.89; 95% CI: 1.08-57.37), lower mothers' utilization of antenatal care (ANC) services (AOR:1.25; 95% CI: 1.07-63.75), being the ≥ 3(rd) born child in the family (AOR: 425.4; 95% CI: 9.6-18,808), younger mothers' age (AOR: 49.55; 95% CI: 1.59-1544), parents' negative attitude towards immunization (AOR: 20.2; 95% CI: 1.46-278.9), and poorer parents' exposure to information on vaccination (AOR: 28.07; 95 % CI: 2.26-348.1). Longer distance from the vaccination centers was marginally significant (p = 0.05). Vaccination coverage was high; however, 1 out of 7 children was partially vaccinated, and 1 out of 4 did not complete timely the recommended vaccinations. In order to improve the immunization coverage, it is necessary to strengthen ANC services, and to improve parents' information and attitude towards immunization, targeting younger parents and families living far away from vaccination centers, using appropriate communication strategies. Finally, the estimated OPV-3 coverage is reassuring in relation to the ongoing polio outbreak.

Biocontained Carcass Composting for Control of Infectious Disease Outbreak in Livestock

PubMed Central

Reuter, Tim; Xu, Weiping; Alexander, Trevor W.; Gilroyed, Brandon H.; Inglis, G. Douglas; Larney, Francis J.; Stanford, Kim; McAllister, Tim A.

2010-01-01

Intensive livestock production systems are particularly vulnerable to natural or intentional (bioterrorist) infectious disease outbreaks. Large numbers of animals housed within a confined area enables rapid dissemination of most infectious agents throughout a herd. Rapid containment is key to controlling any infectious disease outbreak, thus depopulation is often undertaken to prevent spread of a pathogen to the larger livestock population. In that circumstance, a large number of livestock carcasses and contaminated manure are generated that require rapid disposal. Composting lends itself as a rapid-response disposal method for infected carcasses as well as manure and soil that may harbor infectious agents. We designed a bio-contained mortality composting procedure and tested its efficacy for bovine tissue degradation and microbial deactivation. We used materials available on-farm or purchasable from local farm supply stores in order that the system can be implemented at the site of a disease outbreak. In this study, temperatures exceeded 55°C for more than one month and infectious agents implanted in beef cattle carcasses and manure were inactivated within 14 days of composting. After 147 days, carcasses were almost completely degraded. The few long bones remaining were further degraded with an additional composting cycle in open windrows and the final mature compost was suitable for land application. Duplicate compost structures (final dimensions 25 m x 5 m x 2.4 m; L x W x H) were constructed using barley straw bales and lined with heavy black silage plastic sheeting. Each was loaded with loose straw, carcasses and manure totaling ~95,000 kg. A 40-cm base layer of loose barley straw was placed in each bunker, onto which were placed 16 feedlot cattle mortalities (average weight 343 kg) aligned transversely at a spacing of approximately 0.5 m. For passive aeration, lengths of flexible, perforated plastic drainage tubing (15 cm diameter) were placed between adjacent carcasses, extending vertically along both inside walls, and with the ends passed though the plastic to the exterior. The carcasses were overlaid with moist aerated feedlot manure (~1.6 m deep) to the top of the bunker. Plastic was folded over the top and sealed with tape to establish a containment barrier and eight aeration vents (50 x 50 x 15 cm) were placed on the top of each structure to promote passive aeration. After 147 days, losses of volume and mass of composted materials averaged 39.8% and 23.7%, respectively, in each structure. PMID:20461054

Biocontained carcass composting for control of infectious disease outbreak in livestock.

PubMed

Reuter, Tim; Xu, Weiping; Alexander, Trevor W; Gilroyed, Brandon H; Inglis, G Douglas; Larney, Francis J; Stanford, Kim; McAllister, Tim A

2010-05-06

Intensive livestock production systems are particularly vulnerable to natural or intentional (bioterrorist) infectious disease outbreaks. Large numbers of animals housed within a confined area enables rapid dissemination of most infectious agents throughout a herd. Rapid containment is key to controlling any infectious disease outbreak, thus depopulation is often undertaken to prevent spread of a pathogen to the larger livestock population. In that circumstance, a large number of livestock carcasses and contaminated manure are generated that require rapid disposal. Composting lends itself as a rapid-response disposal method for infected carcasses as well as manure and soil that may harbor infectious agents. We designed a bio-contained mortality composting procedure and tested its efficacy for bovine tissue degradation and microbial deactivation. We used materials available on-farm or purchasable from local farm supply stores in order that the system can be implemented at the site of a disease outbreak. In this study, temperatures exceeded 55 degrees C for more than one month and infectious agents implanted in beef cattle carcasses and manure were inactivated within 14 days of composting. After 147 days, carcasses were almost completely degraded. The few long bones remaining were further degraded with an additional composting cycle in open windrows and the final mature compost was suitable for land application. Duplicate compost structures (final dimensions 25 m x 5 m x 2.4 m; L x W x H) were constructed using barley straw bales and lined with heavy black silage plastic sheeting. Each was loaded with loose straw, carcasses and manure totaling approximately 95,000 kg. A 40-cm base layer of loose barley straw was placed in each bunker, onto which were placed 16 feedlot cattle mortalities (average weight 343 kg) aligned transversely at a spacing of approximately 0.5 m. For passive aeration, lengths of flexible, perforated plastic drainage tubing (15 cm diameter) were placed between adjacent carcasses, extending vertically along both inside walls, and with the ends passed though the plastic to the exterior. The carcasses were overlaid with moist aerated feedlot manure (approximately 1.6 m deep) to the top of the bunker. Plastic was folded over the top and sealed with tape to establish a containment barrier and eight aeration vents (50 x 50 x 15 cm) were placed on the top of each structure to promote passive aeration. After 147 days, losses of volume and mass of composted materials averaged 39.8% and 23.7%, respectively, in each structure.

Economic costs of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis due to norovirus in Catalonia (Spain), 2010-2011.

PubMed

Navas, Encarna; Torner, Nuria; Broner, Sonia; Godoy, Pere; Martínez, Ana; Bartolomé, Rosa; Domínguez, Angela

2015-10-01

To determine the direct and indirect costs of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis (AVG) due to norovirus in closed institutions (hospitals, social health centers or nursing homes) and the community in Catalonia in 2010-11. Information on outbreaks were gathered from the reports made by epidemiological surveillance units. Direct costs (medical visits, hospital stays, drug treatment, sample processing, transport, diagnostic tests, monitoring and control of the outbreaks investigated) and indirect costs (lost productivity due to work absenteeism, caregivers time and working hours lost due to medical visits) were calculated. Twenty-seven outbreaks affecting 816 people in closed institutions and 74 outbreaks affecting 1,940 people in the community were detected. The direct and indirect costs of outbreaks were € 131,997.36 (€ 4,888.79 per outbreak) in closed institutions and € 260,557.16 (€ 3,521.04 per outbreak) in community outbreaks. The cost per case was € 161.76 in outbreaks in closed institutions and € 134.31 in community outbreaks. The main costs were surveillance unit monitoring (€ 116,652.93), laboratory diagnoses (€ 119,950.95), transport of samples (€ 69,970.90), medical visits (€ 25,250.50) and hospitalization (€ 13,400.00). The cost of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis due to norovirus obtained in this study was influenced by the number of people affected and the severity of the outbreak, which determined hospitalizations and work absenteeism. Urgent reporting of outbreaks would allow the implementation of control measures that could reduce the numbers affected and the duration of the illness and thus the costs derived from them.

Comparing Characteristics of Sporadic and Outbreak-Associated Foodborne Illnesses, United States, 2004–2011

PubMed Central

Ebel, Eric D.; Cole, Dana; Travis, Curtis C.; Klontz, Karl C.; Golden, Neal J.; Hoekstra, Robert M.

2016-01-01

Outbreak data have been used to estimate the proportion of illnesses attributable to different foods. Applying outbreak-based attribution estimates to nonoutbreak foodborne illnesses requires an assumption of similar exposure pathways for outbreak and sporadic illnesses. This assumption cannot be tested, but other comparisons can assess its veracity. Our study compares demographic, clinical, temporal, and geographic characteristics of outbreak and sporadic illnesses from Campylobacter, Escherichia coli O157, Listeria, and Salmonella bacteria ascertained by the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). Differences among FoodNet sites in outbreak and sporadic illnesses might reflect differences in surveillance practices. For Campylobacter, Listeria, and Escherichia coli O157, outbreak and sporadic illnesses are similar for severity, sex, and age. For Salmonella, outbreak and sporadic illnesses are similar for severity and sex. Nevertheless, the percentage of outbreak illnesses in the youngest age category was lower. Therefore, we do not reject the assumption that outbreak and sporadic illnesses are similar. PMID:27314510

Rolling epidemic of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks in small geographic areas.

PubMed

MacIntyre, C Raina; Dyda, Amalie; Bui, Chau Minh; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad

2018-03-21

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is reported from many parts of the world, mostly linked to drinking water sources or cooling towers. We reviewed two unusual rolling outbreaks in Sydney and New York, each clustered in time and space. Data on these outbreaks were collected from public sources and compared to previous outbreaks in Australia and the US. While recurrent outbreaks of LD over time linked to an identified single source have been described, multiple unrelated outbreaks clustered in time and geography have not been previously described. We describe unusual geographic and temporal clustering of Legionella outbreaks in two cities, each of which experienced multiple different outbreaks within a small geographic area and within a short timeframe. The explanation for this temporal and spatial clustering of LD outbreaks in two cities is not clear, but climate variation and deteriorating water sanitation are two possible explanations. There is a need to critically analyse LD outbreaks and better understand changing trends to effectively prevent disease.

Outbreaks attributed to fresh leafy vegetables, United States, 1973–2012

PubMed Central

HERMAN, K. M.; HALL, A. J.; GOULD, L. H.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Leafy vegetables are an essential component of a healthy diet; however, they have been associated with high-profile outbreaks causing severe illnesses. We reviewed leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between 1973 and 2012. During the study period, 606 leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks, with 20 003 associated illnesses, 1030 hospitalizations, and 19 deaths were reported. On average, leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks were larger than those attributed to other food types. The pathogens that most often caused leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks were norovirus (55% of outbreaks with confirmed aetiology), Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) (18%), and Salmonella (11%). Most outbreaks were attributed to food prepared in a restaurant or catering facility (85%). An ill food worker was implicated as the source of contamination in 31% of outbreaks. Efforts by local, state, and federal agencies to control leafy vegetable contamination and outbreaks should span from the point of harvest to the point of preparation. PMID:25697407

Economic Assessment of Waterborne Outbreak of Cryptosporidiosis

PubMed Central

Chyzheuskaya, Aksana; Cormican, Martin; Srivinas, Raghavendra; O’Donovan, Diarmuid; Prendergast, Martina; O’Donoghue, Cathal

2017-01-01

In 2007, a waterborne outbreak of Cryptosporidium hominis infection occurred in western Ireland, resulting in 242 laboratory-confirmed cases and an uncertain number of unconfirmed cases. A boil water notice was in place for 158 days that affected 120,432 persons residing in the area, businesses, visitors, and commuters. This outbreak represented the largest outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Ireland. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost of this outbreak. We adopted a societal perspective in estimating costs associated with the outbreak. Economic cost estimated was based on totaling direct and indirect costs incurred by public and private agencies. The cost of the outbreak was estimated based on 2007 figures. We estimate that the cost of the outbreak was >€19 million (≈€120,000/day of the outbreak). The US dollar equivalent based on today’s exchange rates would be $22.44 million (≈$142,000/day of the outbreak). This study highlights the economic need for a safe drinking water supply. PMID:28930007

Outbreaks attributed to fresh leafy vegetables, United States, 1973-2012.

PubMed

Herman, K M; Hall, A J; Gould, L H

2015-10-01

Leafy vegetables are an essential component of a healthy diet; however, they have been associated with high-profile outbreaks causing severe illnesses. We reviewed leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between 1973 and 2012. During the study period, 606 leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks, with 20 003 associated illnesses, 1030 hospitalizations, and 19 deaths were reported. On average, leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks were larger than those attributed to other food types. The pathogens that most often caused leafy vegetable-associated outbreaks were norovirus (55% of outbreaks with confirmed aetiology), Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) (18%), and Salmonella (11%). Most outbreaks were attributed to food prepared in a restaurant or catering facility (85%). An ill food worker was implicated as the source of contamination in 31% of outbreaks. Efforts by local, state, and federal agencies to control leafy vegetable contamination and outbreaks should span from the point of harvest to the point of preparation.

Typhoid fever acquired in the United States, 1999–2010: epidemiology, microbiology, and use of a space–time scan statistic for outbreak detection

PubMed Central

IMANISHI, M.; NEWTON, A. E.; VIEIRA, A. R.; GONZALEZ-AVILES, G.; KENDALL SCOTT, M. E.; MANIKONDA, K.; MAXWELL, T. N.; HALPIN, J. L.; FREEMAN, M. M.; MEDALLA, F.; AYERS, T. L.; DERADO, G.; MAHON, B. E.; MINTZ, E. D.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Although rare, typhoid fever cases acquired in the United States continue to be reported. Detection and investigation of outbreaks in these domestically acquired cases offer opportunities to identify chronic carriers. We searched surveillance and laboratory databases for domestically acquired typhoid fever cases, used a space–time scan statistic to identify clusters, and classified clusters as outbreaks or non-outbreaks. From 1999 to 2010, domestically acquired cases accounted for 18% of 3373 reported typhoid fever cases; their isolates were less often multidrug-resistant (2% vs. 15%) compared to isolates from travel-associated cases. We identified 28 outbreaks and two possible outbreaks within 45 space–time clusters of ⩾2 domestically acquired cases, including three outbreaks involving ⩾2 molecular subtypes. The approach detected seven of the ten outbreaks published in the literature or reported to CDC. Although this approach did not definitively identify any previously unrecognized outbreaks, it showed the potential to detect outbreaks of typhoid fever that may escape detection by routine analysis of surveillance data. Sixteen outbreaks had been linked to a carrier. Every case of typhoid fever acquired in a non-endemic country warrants thorough investigation. Space–time scan statistics, together with shoe-leather epidemiology and molecular subtyping, may improve outbreak detection. PMID:25427666

Typhoid fever acquired in the United States, 1999-2010: epidemiology, microbiology, and use of a space-time scan statistic for outbreak detection.

PubMed

Imanishi, M; Newton, A E; Vieira, A R; Gonzalez-Aviles, G; Kendall Scott, M E; Manikonda, K; Maxwell, T N; Halpin, J L; Freeman, M M; Medalla, F; Ayers, T L; Derado, G; Mahon, B E; Mintz, E D

2015-08-01

Although rare, typhoid fever cases acquired in the United States continue to be reported. Detection and investigation of outbreaks in these domestically acquired cases offer opportunities to identify chronic carriers. We searched surveillance and laboratory databases for domestically acquired typhoid fever cases, used a space-time scan statistic to identify clusters, and classified clusters as outbreaks or non-outbreaks. From 1999 to 2010, domestically acquired cases accounted for 18% of 3373 reported typhoid fever cases; their isolates were less often multidrug-resistant (2% vs. 15%) compared to isolates from travel-associated cases. We identified 28 outbreaks and two possible outbreaks within 45 space-time clusters of ⩾2 domestically acquired cases, including three outbreaks involving ⩾2 molecular subtypes. The approach detected seven of the ten outbreaks published in the literature or reported to CDC. Although this approach did not definitively identify any previously unrecognized outbreaks, it showed the potential to detect outbreaks of typhoid fever that may escape detection by routine analysis of surveillance data. Sixteen outbreaks had been linked to a carrier. Every case of typhoid fever acquired in a non-endemic country warrants thorough investigation. Space-time scan statistics, together with shoe-leather epidemiology and molecular subtyping, may improve outbreak detection.

Genomic epidemiology of the Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreaks in Europe, 2011.

PubMed

Grad, Yonatan H; Lipsitch, Marc; Feldgarden, Michael; Arachchi, Harindra M; Cerqueira, Gustavo C; Fitzgerald, Michael; Godfrey, Paul; Haas, Brian J; Murphy, Cheryl I; Russ, Carsten; Sykes, Sean; Walker, Bruce J; Wortman, Jennifer R; Young, Sarah; Zeng, Qiandong; Abouelleil, Amr; Bochicchio, James; Chauvin, Sara; Desmet, Timothy; Gujja, Sharvari; McCowan, Caryn; Montmayeur, Anna; Steelman, Scott; Frimodt-Møller, Jakob; Petersen, Andreas M; Struve, Carsten; Krogfelt, Karen A; Bingen, Edouard; Weill, François-Xavier; Lander, Eric S; Nusbaum, Chad; Birren, Bruce W; Hung, Deborah T; Hanage, William P

2012-02-21

The degree to which molecular epidemiology reveals information about the sources and transmission patterns of an outbreak depends on the resolution of the technology used and the samples studied. Isolates of Escherichia coli O104:H4 from the outbreak centered in Germany in May-July 2011, and the much smaller outbreak in southwest France in June 2011, were indistinguishable by standard tests. We report a molecular epidemiological analysis using multiplatform whole-genome sequencing and analysis of multiple isolates from the German and French outbreaks. Isolates from the German outbreak showed remarkably little diversity, with only two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) found in isolates from four individuals. Surprisingly, we found much greater diversity (19 SNPs) in isolates from seven individuals infected in the French outbreak. The German isolates form a clade within the more diverse French outbreak strains. Moreover, five isolates derived from a single infected individual from the French outbreak had extremely limited diversity. The striking difference in diversity between the German and French outbreak samples is consistent with several hypotheses, including a bottleneck that purged diversity in the German isolates, variation in mutation rates in the two E. coli outbreak populations, or uneven distribution of diversity in the seed populations that led to each outbreak.

Genomic epidemiology of the Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreaks in Europe, 2011

PubMed Central

Grad, Yonatan H.; Lipsitch, Marc; Feldgarden, Michael; Arachchi, Harindra M.; Cerqueira, Gustavo C.; FitzGerald, Michael; Godfrey, Paul; Haas, Brian J.; Murphy, Cheryl I.; Russ, Carsten; Sykes, Sean; Walker, Bruce J.; Wortman, Jennifer R.; Young, Sarah; Zeng, Qiandong; Abouelleil, Amr; Bochicchio, James; Chauvin, Sara; DeSmet, Timothy; Gujja, Sharvari; McCowan, Caryn; Montmayeur, Anna; Steelman, Scott; Frimodt-Møller, Jakob; Petersen, Andreas M.; Struve, Carsten; Krogfelt, Karen A.; Bingen, Edouard; Weill, François-Xavier; Lander, Eric S.; Nusbaum, Chad; Birren, Bruce W.; Hung, Deborah T.; Hanage, William P.

2012-01-01

The degree to which molecular epidemiology reveals information about the sources and transmission patterns of an outbreak depends on the resolution of the technology used and the samples studied. Isolates of Escherichia coli O104:H4 from the outbreak centered in Germany in May–July 2011, and the much smaller outbreak in southwest France in June 2011, were indistinguishable by standard tests. We report a molecular epidemiological analysis using multiplatform whole-genome sequencing and analysis of multiple isolates from the German and French outbreaks. Isolates from the German outbreak showed remarkably little diversity, with only two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) found in isolates from four individuals. Surprisingly, we found much greater diversity (19 SNPs) in isolates from seven individuals infected in the French outbreak. The German isolates form a clade within the more diverse French outbreak strains. Moreover, five isolates derived from a single infected individual from the French outbreak had extremely limited diversity. The striking difference in diversity between the German and French outbreak samples is consistent with several hypotheses, including a bottleneck that purged diversity in the German isolates, variation in mutation rates in the two E. coli outbreak populations, or uneven distribution of diversity in the seed populations that led to each outbreak. PMID:22315421

Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebecca L.; Schukken, Ynte H.; Lu, Zhao; Mitchell, Rebecca M.; Grohn, Yrjo T.

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. Design Stochastic simulation model. Sample Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. Procedures A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin-test based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant (annual) testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection-based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. Results On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test-based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy. PMID:23865885

[Waterborne outbreaks in Norway 2003-2012].

PubMed

Guzman-Herrador, Bernardo; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Lund, Vidar; MacDonald, Emily; Vold, Line; Wahl, Erik; Nygård, Karin

2016-04-19

We describe the status of waterborne outbreaks notified in Norway and discuss this in the context of outbreaks recorded in previous years, to gain a better understanding of their development in Norway in recent years. We have collected information on all outbreaks notified to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health via the surveillance system for communicable diseases in the ten-year period from 2003-2012 for which drinking water was given as the suspected cause. Altogether 28 waterborne outbreaks with a total of 8,060 persons reported as ill were notified in the period. The majority of outbreaks resulted in fewer than 100 cases of illness. There were two outbreaks with more than 1,000 cases of illness: an oubreak of campylobacteriosis in Røros and an oubreak of giardiasis in Bergen. In more than half of the outbreaks, water was supplied from public water distribution systems (16/28 outbreaks, 57%). In addition, a large proportion was linked to individual households with their own water supply (12/28 outbreaks, 43%). Most of the outbreaks in the ten-year period were linked to public water distribution systems, while almost half were linked to non-disinfected water supplies to individual households. Although most of the outbreaks were small, two extensive outbreaks were also registered in the period, resulting in more than one thousand cases of illness. This underscores the need for good contingency planning and surveillance, so that suspicion of waterborne outbreaks is rapidly notified to the responsible authorities, and the importance of good protection of water sources, as well as proper maintenance of water treatment plants and distribution systems.

Outbreaks Associated with Treated Recreational Water - United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Hlavsa, Michele C; Cikesh, Bryanna L; Roberts, Virginia A; Kahler, Amy M; Vigar, Marissa; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Wade, Timothy J; Roellig, Dawn M; Murphy, Jennifer L; Xiao, Lihua; Yates, Kirsten M; Kunz, Jasen M; Arduino, Matthew J; Reddy, Sujan C; Fullerton, Kathleen E; Cooley, Laura A; Beach, Michael J; Hill, Vincent R; Yoder, Jonathan S

2018-05-18

Outbreaks associated with exposure to treated recreational water can be caused by pathogens or chemicals in venues such as pools, hot tubs/spas, and interactive water play venues (i.e., water playgrounds). During 2000-2014, public health officials from 46 states and Puerto Rico reported 493 outbreaks associated with treated recreational water. These outbreaks resulted in at least 27,219 cases and eight deaths. Among the 363 outbreaks with a confirmed infectious etiology, 212 (58%) were caused by Cryptosporidium (which causes predominantly gastrointestinal illness), 57 (16%) by Legionella (which causes Legionnaires' disease, a severe pneumonia, and Pontiac fever, a milder illness with flu-like symptoms), and 47 (13%) by Pseudomonas (which causes folliculitis ["hot tub rash"] and otitis externa ["swimmers' ear"]). Investigations of the 363 outbreaks identified 24,453 cases; 21,766 (89%) were caused by Cryptosporidium, 920 (4%) by Pseudomonas, and 624 (3%) by Legionella. At least six of the eight reported deaths occurred in persons affected by outbreaks caused by Legionella. Hotels were the leading setting, associated with 157 (32%) of the 493 outbreaks. Overall, the outbreaks had a bimodal temporal distribution: 275 (56%) outbreaks started during June-August and 46 (9%) in March. Assessment of trends in the annual counts of outbreaks caused by Cryptosporidium, Legionella, or Pseudomonas indicate mixed progress in preventing transmission. Pathogens able to evade chlorine inactivation have become leading outbreak etiologies. The consequent outbreak and case counts and mortality underscore the utility of CDC's Model Aquatic Health Code (https://www.cdc.gov/mahc) to prevent outbreaks associated with treated recreational water.

A Systematic Review of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Associated with Small Non-Community Drinking Water Systems in Canada and the United States.

PubMed

Pons, Wendy; Young, Ian; Truong, Jenifer; Jones-Bitton, Andria; McEwen, Scott; Pintar, Katarina; Papadopoulos, Andrew

2015-01-01

Reports of outbreaks in Canada and the United States (U.S.) indicate that approximately 50% of all waterborne diseases occur in small non-community drinking water systems (SDWSs). Summarizing these investigations to identify the factors and conditions contributing to outbreaks is needed in order to help prevent future outbreaks. The objectives of this study were to: 1) identify published reports of waterborne disease outbreaks involving SDWSs in Canada and the U.S. since 1970; 2) summarize reported factors contributing to outbreaks, including water system characteristics and events surrounding the outbreaks; and 3) identify terminology used to describe SDWSs in outbreak reports. Three electronic databases and grey literature sources were searched for outbreak reports involving SDWSs throughout Canada and the U.S. from 1970 to 2014. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data related to water system characteristics and outbreak events. The data were analyzed descriptively with 'outbreak' as the unit of analysis. From a total of 1,995 citations, we identified 50 relevant articles reporting 293 unique outbreaks. Failure of an existing water treatment system (22.7%) and lack of water treatment (20.2%) were the leading causes of waterborne outbreaks in SDWSs. A seasonal trend was observed with 51% of outbreaks occurring in summer months (p<0.001). There was large variation in terminology used to describe SDWSs, and a large number of variables were not reported, including water source and whether water treatment was used (missing in 31% and 66% of reports, respectively). More consistent reporting and descriptions of SDWSs in future outbreak reports are needed to understand the epidemiology of these outbreaks and to inform the development of targeted interventions for SDWSs. Additional monitoring of water systems that are used on a seasonal or infrequent basis would be worthwhile to inform future protection efforts.

Differences in the Vulnerability of Waterbird Species to Botulism Outbreaks in Mediterranean Wetlands: an Assessment of Ecological and Physiological Factors

PubMed Central

Anza, I.; Vidal, D.; Feliu, J.; Crespo, E.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Avian botulism kills thousands of waterbirds every year, including endangered species, but information about the differences between species in vulnerability to botulism outbreaks and the capacity to act as carriers of Clostridium botulinum is still poorly known. Here, we estimated the vulnerability to botulism of 11 waterbird species from Mediterranean wetlands by comparing the number of affected birds with the census of individuals at risk. The capacity of different species to act as carriers was studied by detecting the presence of the C. botulinum type C/D botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT) gene in fecal samples and prey items of waterbirds in the wild and by the serial sampling of cloacal swabs of birds affected by botulism. We found differences among species in their vulnerabilities to botulism, probably related to feeding habits, season of arrival, turnover, and, possibly, phylogenetic resilience. The globally endangered white-headed duck (Oxyura leucocephala) showed mortality rates in the studied outbreaks of 7% and 17% of the maximum census, which highlights botulism as a risk factor for the conservation of the species. Invasive water snails, such as Physa acuta, may be important drivers in botulism epidemiology, because 30% of samples tested positive for the BoNT gene during outbreaks. Finally, our results show that birds may excrete the pathogen for up to 7 days, and some individuals can do it for longer periods. Rails and ducks excreted C. botulinum more often and for longer times than gulls, which could be related to their digestive physiology (i.e., cecum development). IMPORTANCE Botulism is an important cause of mortality in waterbirds, including some endangered species. The global climate change may have consequences in the ecology of wetlands that favor the occurrence of botulism outbreaks. Here, we offer some information to understand the ecology of this disease that can be useful to cope with these global changes in the future. We have found that some species (i.e., coots and dabbling ducks) are more vulnerable to botulism and have a more relevant role in the onset and amplification of the outbreaks than other species (i.e., flamingos and grebes). Feeding habits can explain these differences in part; in addition to the well-known role of necrophagous fly maggots, we found here that water snails are frequent carriers of Clostridium botulinum. This is relevant, because these water snails can thrive in eutrophic and polluted wetlands, exacerbating other changes driven by climate change in wetlands. PMID:27016572

Differences in the Vulnerability of Waterbird Species to Botulism Outbreaks in Mediterranean Wetlands: an Assessment of Ecological and Physiological Factors.

PubMed

Anza, I; Vidal, D; Feliu, J; Crespo, E; Mateo, R

2016-05-15

Avian botulism kills thousands of waterbirds every year, including endangered species, but information about the differences between species in vulnerability to botulism outbreaks and the capacity to act as carriers of Clostridium botulinum is still poorly known. Here, we estimated the vulnerability to botulism of 11 waterbird species from Mediterranean wetlands by comparing the number of affected birds with the census of individuals at risk. The capacity of different species to act as carriers was studied by detecting the presence of the C. botulinum type C/D botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT) gene in fecal samples and prey items of waterbirds in the wild and by the serial sampling of cloacal swabs of birds affected by botulism. We found differences among species in their vulnerabilities to botulism, probably related to feeding habits, season of arrival, turnover, and, possibly, phylogenetic resilience. The globally endangered white-headed duck (Oxyura leucocephala) showed mortality rates in the studied outbreaks of 7% and 17% of the maximum census, which highlights botulism as a risk factor for the conservation of the species. Invasive water snails, such as Physa acuta, may be important drivers in botulism epidemiology, because 30% of samples tested positive for the BoNT gene during outbreaks. Finally, our results show that birds may excrete the pathogen for up to 7 days, and some individuals can do it for longer periods. Rails and ducks excreted C. botulinum more often and for longer times than gulls, which could be related to their digestive physiology (i.e., cecum development). Botulism is an important cause of mortality in waterbirds, including some endangered species. The global climate change may have consequences in the ecology of wetlands that favor the occurrence of botulism outbreaks. Here, we offer some information to understand the ecology of this disease that can be useful to cope with these global changes in the future. We have found that some species (i.e., coots and dabbling ducks) are more vulnerable to botulism and have a more relevant role in the onset and amplification of the outbreaks than other species (i.e., flamingos and grebes). Feeding habits can explain these differences in part; in addition to the well-known role of necrophagous fly maggots, we found here that water snails are frequent carriers of Clostridium botulinum This is relevant, because these water snails can thrive in eutrophic and polluted wetlands, exacerbating other changes driven by climate change in wetlands. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H; Sarfraz, Rana M

2017-01-31

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

Foodborne (1973-2013) and Waterborne (1971-2013) Disease Outbreaks - United States.

PubMed

Dewey-Mattia, Daniel; Roberts, Virginia A; Vieira, Antonio; Fullerton, Kathleen E

2016-10-14

CDC collects data on foodborne and waterborne disease outbreaks reported by all U.S. states and territories through the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System (FDOSS) (http://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/fdoss/surveillance/index.html) and the Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) http://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/surveillance), respectively. These two systems are the primary source of national data describing the number of reported outbreaks; outbreak-associated illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths; etiologic agents; water source or implicated foods; settings of exposure; and other factors associated with recognized foodborne and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States.

Selection tool for foodborne norovirus outbreaks.

PubMed

Verhoef, Linda P B; Kroneman, Annelies; van Duynhoven, Yvonne; Boshuizen, Hendriek; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Koopmans, Marion

2009-01-01

Detection of pathogens in the food chain is limited mainly to bacteria, and the globalization of the food industry enables international viral foodborne outbreaks to occur. Outbreaks from 2002 through 2006 recorded in a European norovirus surveillance database were investigated for virologic and epidemiologic indicators of food relatedness. The resulting validated multivariate logistic regression model comparing foodborne (n = 224) and person-to-person (n = 654) outbreaks was used to create a practical web-based tool that can be limited to epidemiologic parameters for nongenotyping countries. Non-genogroup-II.4 outbreaks, higher numbers of cases, and outbreaks in restaurants or households characterized (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.86) foodborne outbreaks and reduced the percentage of outbreaks requiring source-tracing to 31%. The selection tool enabled prospectively focused follow-up. Use of this tool is likely to improve data quality and strain typing in current surveillance systems, which is necessary for identification of potential international foodborne outbreaks.

Coccidioidomycosis Outbreaks, United States and Worldwide, 1940-2015.

PubMed

Freedman, Michael; Jackson, Brendan R; McCotter, Orion; Benedict, Kaitlin

2018-03-01

Coccidioidomycosis causes substantial illness and death in the United States each year. Although most cases are sporadic, outbreaks provide insight into the clinical and environmental features of coccidioidomycosis, high-risk activities, and the geographic range of Coccidioides fungi. We identified reports published in English of 47 coccidioidomycosis outbreaks worldwide that resulted in 1,464 cases during 1940-2015. Most (85%) outbreaks were associated with environmental exposures; the 2 largest outbreaks resulted from an earthquake and a large dust storm. More than one third of outbreaks occurred in areas where the fungus was not previously known to be endemic, and more than half of outbreaks involved occupational exposures. Coccidioidomycosis outbreaks can be difficult to detect and challenging to prevent given the unknown effectiveness of environmental control methods and personal protective equipment; therefore, increased awareness of coccidioidomycosis outbreaks is needed among public health professionals, healthcare providers, and the public.

Coccidioidomycosis Outbreaks, United States and Worldwide, 1940–2015

PubMed Central

Freedman, Michael; Jackson, Brendan R.; McCotter, Orion

2018-01-01

Coccidioidomycosis causes substantial illness and death in the United States each year. Although most cases are sporadic, outbreaks provide insight into the clinical and environmental features of coccidioidomycosis, high-risk activities, and the geographic range of Coccidioides fungi. We identified reports published in English of 47 coccidioidomycosis outbreaks worldwide that resulted in 1,464 cases during 1940–2015. Most (85%) outbreaks were associated with environmental exposures; the 2 largest outbreaks resulted from an earthquake and a large dust storm. More than one third of outbreaks occurred in areas where the fungus was not previously known to be endemic, and more than half of outbreaks involved occupational exposures. Coccidioidomycosis outbreaks can be difficult to detect and challenging to prevent given the unknown effectiveness of environmental control methods and personal protective equipment; therefore, increased awareness of coccidioidomycosis outbreaks is needed among public health professionals, healthcare providers, and the public. PMID:29460741

Whole-genome Sequencing for Tracing the Transmission Link between Two ARD Outbreaks Caused by a Novel HAdV Serotype 7 Variant, China

PubMed Central

Qiu, Shaofu; Li, Peng; Liu, Hongbo; Wang, Yong; Liu, Nan; Li, Chengyi; Li, Shenlong; Li, Ming; Jiang, Zhengjie; Sun, Huandong; Li, Ying; Xie, Jing; Yang, Chaojie; Wang, Jian; Li, Hao; Yi, Shengjie; Wu, Zhihao; Jia, Leili; Wang, Ligui; Hao, Rongzhang; Sun, Yansong; Huang, Liuyu; Ma, Hui; Yuan, Zhengquan; Song, Hongbin

2015-01-01

From December 2012 to February 2013, two outbreaks of acute respiratory disease caused by HAdV-7 were reported in China. We investigated possible transmission links between these two seemingly unrelated outbreaks by integration of epidemiological and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data. WGS analyses showed that the HAdV-7 isolates from the two outbreaks were genetically indistinguishable; however, a 12 bp deletion in the virus-associated RNA gene distinguished the outbreak isolates from other HAdV-7 isolates. Outbreak HAdV-7 isolates demonstrated increased viral replication compared to non-outbreak associated HAdV-7 isolate. Epidemiological data supported that the first outbreak was caused by introduction of the novel HAdV-7 virus by an infected recruit upon arrival at the training base. Nosocomial transmission by close contacts was the most likely source leading to onset of the second HAdV-7 outbreak, establishing the apparent transmission link between the outbreaks. Our findings imply that in-hospital contact investigations should be encouraged to reduce or interrupt further spread of infectious agents when treating outbreak cases, and WGS can provide useful information guiding infection-control interventions. PMID:26338697

Multistate outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infections linked to whole apples used in commercially produced, prepackaged caramel apples: United States, 2014-2015.

PubMed

Angelo, K M; Conrad, A R; Saupe, A; Dragoo, H; West, N; Sorenson, A; Barnes, A; Doyle, M; Beal, J; Jackson, K A; Stroika, S; Tarr, C; Kucerova, Z; Lance, S; Gould, L H; Wise, M; Jackson, B R

2017-04-01

Whole apples have not been previously implicated in outbreaks of foodborne bacterial illness. We investigated a nationwide listeriosis outbreak associated with caramel apples. We defined an outbreak-associated case as an infection with one or both of two outbreak strains of Listeria monocytogenes highly related by whole-genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST) from 1 October 2014 to 1 February 2015. Single-interviewer open-ended interviews identified the source. Outbreak-associated cases were compared with non-outbreak-associated cases and traceback and environmental investigations were performed. We identified 35 outbreak-associated cases in 12 states; 34 (97%) were hospitalized and seven (20%) died. Outbreak-associated ill persons were more likely to have eaten commercially produced, prepackaged caramel apples (odds ratio 326·7, 95% confidence interval 32·2-3314). Environmental samples from the grower's packing facility and distribution-chain whole apples yielded isolates highly related to outbreak isolates by wgMLST. This outbreak highlights the importance of minimizing produce contamination with L. monocytogenes. Investigators should perform single-interviewer open-ended interviews when a food is not readily identified.

Modeling Classical Swine Fever Outbreak-Related Outcomes

PubMed Central

Yadav, Shankar; Olynk Widmar, Nicole J.; Weng, Hsin-Yi

2016-01-01

The study was carried out to estimate classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak-related outcomes, such as epidemic duration and number of infected, vaccinated, and depopulated premises, using defined most likely CSF outbreak scenarios. Risk metrics were established using empirical data to select the most likely CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana. These scenarios were simulated using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate outbreak-related outcomes. A total of 19 single-site (i.e., with one index premises at the onset of an outbreak) and 15 multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of an outbreak) outbreak scenarios of CSF were selected using the risk metrics. The number of index premises in the multiple-site outbreak scenarios ranged from 4 to 32. The multiple-site outbreak scenarios were further classified into clustered (N = 6) and non-clustered (N = 9) groups. The estimated median (5th, 95th percentiles) epidemic duration (days) was 224 (24, 343) in the single-site and was 190 (157, 251) and 210 (167, 302) in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. The median (5th, 95th percentiles) number of infected premises was 323 (0, 488) in the single-site outbreak scenarios and was 529 (395, 662) and 465 (295, 640) in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. Both the number and spatial distributions of the index premises affected the outcome estimates. The results also showed the importance of implementing vaccinations to accommodate depopulation in the CSF outbreak controls. The use of routinely collected surveillance data in the risk metrics and disease spread model allows end users to generate timely outbreak-related information based on the initial outbreak’s characteristics. Swine producers can use this information to make an informed decision on the management of swine operations and continuity of business, so that potential losses could be minimized during a CSF outbreak. Government authorities might use the information to make emergency preparedness plans for CSF outbreak control. PMID:26870741

Addressing Institutional Amplifiers in the Dynamics and Control of Tuberculosis Epidemics

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin

2011-01-01

Tuberculosis outbreaks originating in prisons, mines, or hospital wards can spread to the larger community. Recent proposals have targeted these high-transmission institutional amplifiers by improving case detection, treatment, or reducing the size of the exposed population. However, what effects these alternative proposals may have is unclear. We mathematically modeled these control strategies and found case detection and treatment methods insufficient in addressing epidemics involving common types of institutional amplifiers. Movement of persons in and out of amplifiers fundamentally altered the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a manner not effectively mitigated by detection or treatment alone. Policies increasing the population size exposed to amplifiers or the per-person duration of exposure within amplifiers potentially worsened incidence, even in settings with high rates of detection and treatment success. However, reducing the total population size entering institutional amplifiers significantly lowered tuberculosis incidence and the risk of propagating new drug-resistant tuberculosis strains. PMID:21212197

There's No Place Like Home: Crown-of-Thorns Outbreaks in the Central Pacific Are Regionally Derived and Independent Events

PubMed Central

Timmers, Molly A.; Bird, Christopher E.; Skillings, Derek J.; Smouse, Peter E.; Toonen, Robert J.

2012-01-01

One of the most significant biological disturbances on a tropical coral reef is a population outbreak of the fecund, corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star, Acanthaster planci. Although the factors that trigger an initial outbreak may vary, successive outbreaks within and across regions are assumed to spread via the planktonic larvae released from a primary outbreak. This secondary outbreak hypothesis is predominantly based on the high dispersal potential of A. planci and the assertion that outbreak populations (a rogue subset of the larger population) are genetically more similar to each other than they are to low-density non-outbreak populations. Here we use molecular techniques to evaluate the spatial scale at which A. planci outbreaks can propagate via larval dispersal in the central Pacific Ocean by inferring the location and severity of gene flow restrictions from the analysis of mtDNA control region sequence (656 specimens, 17 non-outbreak and six outbreak locations, six archipelagos, and three regions). Substantial regional, archipelagic, and subarchipelagic-scale genetic structuring of A. planci populations indicate that larvae rarely realize their dispersal potential and outbreaks in the central Pacific do not spread across the expanses of open ocean. On a finer scale, genetic partitioning was detected within two of three islands with multiple sampling sites. The finest spatial structure was detected at Pearl & Hermes Atoll, between the lagoon and forereef habitats (<10 km). Despite using a genetic marker capable of revealing subtle partitioning, we found no evidence that outbreaks were a rogue genetic subset of a greater population. Overall, outbreaks that occur at similar times across population partitions are genetically independent and likely due to nutrient inputs and similar climatic and ecological conditions that conspire to fuel plankton blooms. PMID:22363570

Role of Food Handlers in Norovirus Outbreaks in London and South East England, 2013 to 2015.

PubMed

Rumble, C; Addiman, S; Balasegaram, S; Chima, K; Ready, D; Heard, J; Alexander, E

2017-02-01

Outbreaks caused by norovirus infection are common and occur throughout the year. Outbreaks can be related to food outlets either through a contaminated food source or an infected food handler. Both asymptomatic and symptomatic food handlers are potentially implicated in outbreaks, but evidence of transmission is limited. To understand potential food handler transmission in outbreak scenarios, epidemiological and microbiological data on possible and confirmed norovirus outbreaks reported in London and South East England in a 2-year period were reviewed. One hundred eighty-six outbreaks were associated with a food outlet or registered caterer in this period. These occurred throughout the year with peaks in quarter 1 of study years. A case series of 17 outbreaks investigated by the local field epidemiological service were evaluated further, representing more than 606 cases. In five outbreaks, symptomatic food handlers were tested and found positive for norovirus. In four outbreaks, symptomatic food handlers were not tested. Asymptomatic food handlers were tested in three outbreaks but positive for norovirus in one only. Environmental sampling did not identify the causative agent conclusively in any of the outbreaks included in this analysis. Food sampling identified norovirus in one outbreak. Recommendations from this study include for outbreak investigations to encourage testing of symptomatic food handlers and for food and environmental samples to be taken as soon as possible. In addition, sampling of asymptomatic food handlers should be considered when possible. However, in light of the complexity in conclusively identifying a source of infection, general measures to improve hand hygiene are recommended, with specific education among food handlers about the potential for foodborne pathogen transmission during asymptomatic infection, as well as reinforcing the importance of self-exclusion from food handling activities when symptomatic.

Reported waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease in Australia are predominantly associated with recreational exposure.

PubMed

Dale, Katie; Kirk, Martyn; Sinclair, Martha; Hall, Robert; Leder, Karin

2010-10-01

To examine the frequency and circumstances of reported waterborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Australia. Examination of data reported to OzFoodNet between 2001 and 2007. During these seven years, 6,515 gastroenteritis outbreaks were reported to OzFoodNet, most of which were classified as being transmitted person-to-person or from an unknown source. Fifty-four (0.83%) outbreaks were classified as either 'waterborne' or 'suspected waterborne', of which 78% (42/54) were attributed to recreational water and 19% (10/54) to drinking water. Of the drinking water outbreaks, implicated pathogens were found on all but one occasion and included Salmonella sp. (five outbreaks), Campylobacter jejuni (three outbreaks) and Giardia (one outbreak). There have been few waterborne outbreaks detected in Australia, and most of those reported have been associated with recreational exposure. However, there are difficulties in identifying and categorising gastroenteritis outbreaks, as well as in obtaining microbiological and epidemiological evidence, which can result in misclassification or underestimation of water-associated events. Gastroenteritis surveillance data show that, among reported water-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks in Australia, recreational exposure is currently more common than a drinking water source. However, ongoing surveillance for waterborne outbreaks is important, especially as drought conditions may necessitate replacement of conventional drinking water supplies with alternative water sources, which could incur potential for new health risks. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

A review of outbreaks of foodborne disease associated with passenger ships: evidence for risk management.

PubMed Central

Rooney, Roisin M.; Cramer, Elaine H.; Mantha, Stacey; Nichols, Gordon; Bartram, Jamie K.; Farber, Jeffrey M.; Benembarek, Peter K.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Foodborne disease outbreaks on ships are of concern because of their potentially serious health consequences for passengers and crew and high costs to the industry. The authors conducted a review of outbreaks of foodborne diseases associated with passenger ships in the framework of a World Health Organization project on setting guidelines for ship sanitation. METHODS: The authors reviewed data on 50 outbreaks of foodborne disease associated with passenger ships. For each outbreak, data on pathogens/toxins, type of ship, factors contributing to outbreaks, mortality and morbidity, and food vehicles were collected. RESULTS: The findings of this review show that the majority of reported outbreaks were associated with cruise ships and that almost 10,000 people were affected. Salmonella spp were most frequently associated with outbreaks. Foodborne outbreaks due to enterotoxigenic E. coli spp, Shigella spp, noroviruses (formally called Norwalk-like viruses), Vibrio spp, Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora sp, and Trichinella sp also occurred on ships. Factors associated with the outbreaks reviewed include inadequate temperature control, infected food handlers, contaminated raw ingredients, cross-contamination, inadequate heat treatment, and onshore excursions. Seafood was the most common food vehicle implicated in outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Many ship-associated outbreaks could have been prevented if measures had been taken to ensure adequate temperature control, avoidance of cross-contamination, reliable food sources, adequate heat treatment, and exclusion of infected food handlers from work. PMID:15219800

A review of outbreaks of foodborne disease associated with passenger ships: evidence for risk management.

PubMed

Rooney, Roisin M; Cramer, Elaine H; Mantha, Stacey; Nichols, Gordon; Bartram, Jamie K; Farber, Jeffrey M; Benembarek, Peter K

2004-01-01

Foodborne disease outbreaks on ships are of concern because of their potentially serious health consequences for passengers and crew and high costs to the industry. The authors conducted a review of outbreaks of foodborne diseases associated with passenger ships in the framework of a World Health Organization project on setting guidelines for ship sanitation. The authors reviewed data on 50 outbreaks of foodborne disease associated with passenger ships. For each outbreak, data on pathogens/toxins, type of ship, factors contributing to outbreaks, mortality and morbidity, and food vehicles were collected. The findings of this review show that the majority of reported outbreaks were associated with cruise ships and that almost 10,000 people were affected. Salmonella spp were most frequently associated with outbreaks. Foodborne outbreaks due to enterotoxigenic E. coli spp, Shigella spp, noroviruses (formally called Norwalk-like viruses), Vibrio spp, Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora sp, and Trichinella sp also occurred on ships. Factors associated with the outbreaks reviewed include inadequate temperature control, infected food handlers, contaminated raw ingredients, cross-contamination, inadequate heat treatment, and onshore excursions. Seafood was the most common food vehicle implicated in outbreaks. Many ship-associated outbreaks could have been prevented if measures had been taken to ensure adequate temperature control, avoidance of cross-contamination, reliable food sources, adequate heat treatment, and exclusion of infected food handlers from work.

The Ebola outbreak, 2013–2016: old lessons for new epidemics

PubMed Central

Lindsey, Benjamin; Ghinai, Isaac; Johnson, Anne M.; Heymann, David L.

2017-01-01

Ebola virus causes a severe haemorrhagic fever in humans with high case fatality and significant epidemic potential. The 2013–2016 outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented in scale, being larger than all previous outbreaks combined, with 28 646 reported cases and 11 323 reported deaths. It was also unique in its geographical distribution and multicountry spread. It is vital that the lessons learned from the world's largest Ebola outbreak are not lost. This article aims to provide a detailed description of the evolution of the outbreak. We contextualize this outbreak in relation to previous Ebola outbreaks and outline the theories regarding its origins and emergence. The outbreak is described by country, in chronological order, including epidemiological parameters and implementation of outbreak containment strategies. We then summarize the factors that led to rapid and extensive propagation, as well as highlight the key successes, failures and lessons learned from this outbreak and the response. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’. PMID:28396469

Positive impact of infection prevention on the management of nosocomial outbreaks at an academic hospital.

PubMed

Dik, Jan-Willem H; Sinha, Bhanu; Lokate, Mariëtte; Lo-Ten-Foe, Jerome R; Dinkelacker, Ariane G; Postma, Maarten J; Friedrich, Alexander W

2016-10-01

Infection prevention (IP) measures are vital to prevent (nosocomial) outbreaks. Financial evaluations of these are scarce. An incremental cost analysis for an academic IP unit was performed. On a yearly basis, we evaluated: IP measures; costs thereof; numbers of patients at risk for causing nosocomial outbreaks; predicted outbreak patients; and actual outbreak patients. IP costs rose on average yearly with €150,000; however, more IP actions were undertaken. Numbers of patients colonized with high-risk microorganisms increased. The trend of actual outbreak patients remained stable. Predicted prevented outbreak patients saved costs, leading to a positive return on investment of 1.94. This study shows that investments in IP can prevent outbreak cases, thereby saving enough money to earn back these investments.

A Systematic Review of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Associated with Small Non-Community Drinking Water Systems in Canada and the United States

PubMed Central

Jones-Bitton, Andria; McEwen, Scott; Pintar, Katarina; Papadopoulos, Andrew

2015-01-01

Background Reports of outbreaks in Canada and the United States (U.S.) indicate that approximately 50% of all waterborne diseases occur in small non-community drinking water systems (SDWSs). Summarizing these investigations to identify the factors and conditions contributing to outbreaks is needed in order to help prevent future outbreaks. Objectives The objectives of this study were to: 1) identify published reports of waterborne disease outbreaks involving SDWSs in Canada and the U.S. since 1970; 2) summarize reported factors contributing to outbreaks, including water system characteristics and events surrounding the outbreaks; and 3) identify terminology used to describe SDWSs in outbreak reports. Methods Three electronic databases and grey literature sources were searched for outbreak reports involving SDWSs throughout Canada and the U.S. from 1970 to 2014. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data related to water system characteristics and outbreak events. The data were analyzed descriptively with ‘outbreak’ as the unit of analysis. Results From a total of 1,995 citations, we identified 50 relevant articles reporting 293 unique outbreaks. Failure of an existing water treatment system (22.7%) and lack of water treatment (20.2%) were the leading causes of waterborne outbreaks in SDWSs. A seasonal trend was observed with 51% of outbreaks occurring in summer months (p<0.001). There was large variation in terminology used to describe SDWSs, and a large number of variables were not reported, including water source and whether water treatment was used (missing in 31% and 66% of reports, respectively). Conclusions More consistent reporting and descriptions of SDWSs in future outbreak reports are needed to understand the epidemiology of these outbreaks and to inform the development of targeted interventions for SDWSs. Additional monitoring of water systems that are used on a seasonal or infrequent basis would be worthwhile to inform future protection efforts. PMID:26513152

Outbreaks Attributed to Cheese: Differences Between Outbreaks Caused by Unpasteurized and Pasteurized Dairy Products, United States, 1998–2011

PubMed Central

Gould, L. Hannah; Mungai, Elisabeth; Behravesh, Casey Barton

2015-01-01

Introduction The interstate commerce of unpasteurized fluid milk, also known as raw milk, is illegal in the United States, and intrastate sales are regulated independently by each state. However, U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulations allow the interstate sale of certain types of cheeses made from unpasteurized milk if specific aging requirements are met. We describe characteristics of these outbreaks, including differences between outbreaks linked to cheese made from pasteurized or unpasteurized milk. Methods We reviewed reports of outbreaks submitted to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System during 1998–2011 in which cheese was implicated as the vehicle. We describe characteristics of these outbreaks, including differences between outbreaks linked to cheese made from pasteurized versus unpasteurized milk. Results During 1998–2011, 90 outbreaks attributed to cheese were reported; 38 (42%) were due to cheese made with unpasteurized milk, 44 (49%) to cheese made with pasteurized milk, and the pasteurization status was not reported for the other eight (9%). The most common cheese–pathogen pairs were unpasteurized queso fresco or other Mexican-style cheese and Salmonella (10 outbreaks), and pasteurized queso fresco or other Mexican-style cheese and Listeria (6 outbreaks). The cheese was imported from Mexico in 38% of outbreaks caused by cheese made with unpasteurized milk. In at least five outbreaks, all due to cheese made from unpasteurized milk, the outbreak report noted that the cheese was produced or sold illegally. Outbreaks caused by cheese made from pasteurized milk occurred most commonly (64%) in restaurant, delis, or banquet settings where cross-contamination was the most common contributing factor. Conclusions In addition to using pasteurized milk to make cheese, interventions to improve the safety of cheese include limiting illegal importation of cheese, strict sanitation and microbiologic monitoring in cheese-making facilities, and controls to limit food worker contamination. PMID:24750119

Surveillance for foodborne disease outbreaks - United States, 1998-2008.

PubMed

Gould, L Hannah; Walsh, Kelly A; Vieira, Antonio R; Herman, Karen; Williams, Ian T; Hall, Aron J; Cole, Dana

2013-06-28

Foodborne diseases cause an estimated 48 million illnesses each year in the United States, including 9.4 million caused by known pathogens. Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance provides valuable insights into the agents and foods that cause illness and the settings in which transmission occurs. CDC maintains a surveillance program for collection and periodic reporting of data on the occurrence and causes of foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. This surveillance system is the primary source of national data describing the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths; etiologic agents; implicated foods; contributing factors; and settings of food preparation and consumption associated with recognized foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. 1998-2008. The Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System collects data on foodborne disease outbreaks, defined as the occurrence of two or more cases of a similar illness resulting from the ingestion of a common food. Public health agencies in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories, and Freely Associated States have primary responsibility for identifying and investigating outbreaks and use a standard form to report outbreaks voluntarily to CDC. During 1998-2008, reporting was made through the electronic Foodborne Outbreak Reporting System (eFORS). During 1998-2008, CDC received reports of 13,405 foodborne disease outbreaks, which resulted in 273,120 reported cases of illness, 9,109 hospitalizations, and 200 deaths. Of the 7,998 outbreaks with a known etiology, 3,633 (45%) were caused by viruses, 3,613 (45%) were caused by bacteria, 685 (5%) were caused by chemical and toxic agents, and 67 (1%) were caused by parasites. Among the 7,724 (58%) outbreaks with an implicated food or contaminated ingredient reported, 3,264 (42%) could be assigned to one of 17 predefined commodity categories: fish, crustaceans, mollusks, dairy, eggs, beef, game, pork, poultry, grains/beans, oils/sugars, fruits/nuts, fungi, leafy vegetables, root vegetables, sprouts, and vegetables from a vine or stalk. The commodities implicated most commonly were poultry (18.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.4-20.3) and fish (18.6%; CI = 17.2-20), followed by beef (11.9%; CI = 10.8-13.1). The pathogen-commodity pairs most commonly responsible for outbreaks were scombroid toxin/histamine and fish (317 outbreaks), ciguatoxin and fish (172 outbreaks), Salmonella and poultry (145 outbreaks), and norovirus and leafy vegetables (141 outbreaks). The pathogen-commodity pairs most commonly responsible for outbreak-related illnesses were norovirus and leafy vegetables (4,011 illnesses), Clostridium perfringens and poultry (3,452 illnesses), Salmonella and vine-stalk vegetables (3,216 illnesses), and Clostridium perfringens and beef (2,963 illnesses). Compared with the first 2 years of the study (1998-1999), the percentage of outbreaks associated with leafy vegetables and dairy increased substantially during 2006-2008, while the percentage of outbreaks associated with eggs decreased. Outbreak reporting rates and implicated foods varied by state and year, respectively; analysis of surveillance data for this 11-year period provides important information regarding changes in sources of illness over time. A substantial percentage of foodborne disease outbreaks were associated with poultry, fish, and beef, whereas many outbreak-related illnesses were associated with poultry, leafy vegetables, beef, and fruits/nuts. The percentage of outbreaks associated with leafy vegetables and dairy increased during the surveillance period, while the percentage associated with eggs decreased. Outbreak surveillance data highlight the etiologic agents, foods, and settings involved most often in foodborne disease outbreaks and can help to identify food commodities and preparation settings in which interventions might be most effective. Analysis of data collected over several years of surveillance provides a means to assess changes in the food commodities associated most frequently with outbreaks that might occur following improvements in food safety or changes in consumption patterns or food preparation practices. Prevention of foodborne disease depends on targeted interventions at appropriate points from food production to food preparation. Efforts to reduce foodborne illness should focus on the pathogens and food commodities causing the most outbreaks and outbreak-associated illnesses, including beef, poultry, fish, and produce.

Consecutive Outbreaks of Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli O6 in Schools in South Korea Caused by Contamination of Fermented Vegetable Kimchi.

PubMed

Shin, Jaeseung; Yoon, Ki-Bok; Jeon, Doo-Young; Oh, Sung-Suk; Oh, Kyung-Hwan; Chung, Gyung Tae; Kim, Seung Woo; Cho, Seung-Hak

2016-10-01

Two outbreaks of gastroenteritis occurred in South Korea, affecting a middle school in the Jeollanam-do province in 2013 (Outbreak 1) and 10 schools in the Incheon province in 2014 (Outbreak 2). We investigated the outbreaks to identify the pathogen and mode of transmission. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Outbreak 1; and case-control studies were performed for the Outbreak 2. Samples from students, environments, and preserved food items were collected and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was conducted to identify strains of pathogen. We identified 167 and 1022 students who met the case definition (≥3 loose stools in any 24-h period) in the Outbreaks 1 and 2, respectively. The consumption of cabbage kimchi and young radish kimchi were significantly associated with the illness. Adjusted odds ratios of kimchi were 2.62-11.74. In the Outbreak 1, cabbage kimchi was made and consumed in the school restaurant and in the Outbreak 2, young radish kimchi was supplied by food company X and distributed to all the 10 schools in the Incheon province. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) O6 was isolated from fecal samples in 375 cases (33.9%) and from kimchi samples. PFGE patterns of the outbreak strains isolated from cases and food were indistinguishable in each outbreak. The suspected food vehicle in these two consecutive outbreaks was kimchi contaminated with ETEC O6. We recommend continued monitoring and stricter sanitation requirements for the food supply process in Korea, especially in relation to kimchi.

Public health implications of complex emergencies and natural disasters.

PubMed

Culver, Amanda; Rochat, Roger; Cookson, Susan T

2017-01-01

During the last decade, conflict or natural disasters have displaced unprecedented numbers of persons. This leads to conditions prone to outbreaks that imperil the health of displaced persons and threaten global health security. Past literature has minimally examined the association of communicable disease outbreaks with complex emergencies (CEs) and natural disasters (NDs). To examine this association, we identified CEs and NDs using publicly available datasets from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters and United Nations Flash and Consolidated Appeals archive for 2005-2014. We identified outbreaks from World Health Organization archives. We compared findings to identify overlap of outbreaks, including their types (whether or not of a vaccine-preventable disease), and emergency event types (CE, ND, or Both) by country and year using descriptive statistics and measure of association. There were 167 CEs, 912 NDs, 118 events linked to 'Both' types of emergencies, and 384 outbreaks. Of CEs, 43% were associated with an outbreak; 24% NDs were associated with an outbreak; and 36% of 'Both' types of emergencies were associated with an outbreak. Africa was disproportionately affected, where 67% of total CEs, 67% of 'Both' events (CE and ND), and 46% of all outbreaks occurred for the study period. The odds ratio of a vaccine-preventable outbreak occurring in a CE versus an ND was 4.14 (95% confidence limits 1.9, 9.4). CEs had greater odds of being associated with outbreaks compared with NDs. Moreover, CEs had high odds of a vaccine-preventable disease causing that outbreak. Focusing on better vaccine coverage could reduce CE-associated morbidity and mortality by preventing outbreaks from spreading.

Managing Ebola from rural to urban slum settings: experiences from Uganda.

PubMed

Okware, Sam I; Omaswa, Francis; Talisuna, Ambrose; Amandua, Jacinto; Amone, Jackson; Onek, Paul; Opio, Alex; Wamala, Joseph; Lubwama, Julius; Luswa, Lukwago; Kagwa, Paul; Tylleskar, Thorkild

2015-03-01

Five outbreaks of ebola occurred in Uganda between 2000-2012. The outbreaks were quickly contained in rural areas. However, the Gulu outbreak in 2000 was the largest and complex due to insurgency. It invaded Gulu municipality and the slum- like camps of the internally displaced persons (IDPs). The Bundigugyo district outbreak followed but was detected late as a new virus. The subsequent outbreaks in the districts of Luwero district (2011, 2012) and Kibaale (2012) were limited to rural areas. Detailed records of the outbreak presentation, cases, and outcomes were reviewed and analyzed. Each outbreak was described and the outcomes examined for the different scenarios. Early detection and action provided the best outcomes and results. The ideal scenario occurred in the Luwero outbreak during which only a single case was observed. Rural outbreaks were easier to contain. The community imposed quarantine prevented the spread of ebola following introduction into Masindi district. The outbreak was confined to the extended family of the index case and only one case developed in the general population. However, the outbreak invasion of the town slum areas escalated the spread of infection in Gulu municipality. Community mobilization and leadership was vital in supporting early case detection and isolations well as contact tracing and public education. Palliative care improved survival. Focusing on treatment and not just quarantine should be emphasized as it also enhanced public trust and health seeking behavior. Early detection and action provided the best scenario for outbreak containment. Community mobilization and leadership was vital in supporting outbreak control. International collaboration was essential in supporting and augmenting the national efforts.

Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

PubMed

Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

2015-02-21

In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Systems Approach to Agricultural Biosecurity.

PubMed

Anand, Manish

This article highlights the importance of systems approaches in addressing agricultural biosecurity threats. On the basis of documentary analysis and stakeholder interaction, a brief survey of agricultural biosecurity threats and vulnerabilities from global and Indian perspectives is provided, followed by an exploration of technological and institutional capabilities. Finally, a perspective on the agricultural disease diagnostic networks is provided, drawing instances from global developments. Technical barriers to agroterrorism are lower than those to human-targeted bioterrorism, and the sector is unique as even a very small disease outbreak could prompt international export restrictions. Key vulnerabilities in the agriculture sector stem from, among others, the structure of agricultural production; insufficient monitoring, surveillance, and controls systems at the borders and in the food chain; inefficient systems for reporting unusual occurrences and outbreaks of disease; and lack of sufficiently trained human resources capable of recognizing or treating transboundary pathogens and diseases. An assessment of technology and institutions pertaining to crop and animal protection management suggests certain gaps. Investment in developing new technologies for civilian application in agriculture, as well as for legitimate actions pertaining to defense, detection, protection, and prophylaxis, and in upgrading laboratory facilities can increase the agricultural sector's level of preparedness for outbreaks. To address potential threats and vulnerabilities of agroterrorism effectively requires the development of a comprehensive strategy and a combined, interagency approach, ideally on an international level. It is proposed that a systems-oriented approach for developing knowledge and innovation networks and strengthening skills and capacities would enable a more resilient agricultural biosecurity system.

Chikungunya Arthritis: Implications of Acute and Chronic Inflammation Mechanisms on Disease Management.

PubMed

Zaid, Ali; Gérardin, Patrick; Taylor, Adam; Mostafavi, Helen; Malvy, Denis; Mahalingam, Suresh

2018-04-01

In the past decade, arboviruses-arthropod-borne viruses-have been the focus of public health institutions worldwide following a spate of devastating outbreaks. Chikungunya virus, an arbovirus that belongs to the alphavirus genus, is a reemerging arthritogenic virus that has caused explosive outbreaks since 2006, notably on Réunion Island, and more recently in the Caribbean, South America, India, and Southeast Asia. The severity of arthritic disease caused by chikungunya virus has prompted public health authorities in affected countries to develop specific guidelines to tackle this pathogen. Chikungunya virus disease manifests first as an acute stage of severe joint inflammation and febrile illness, which later progresses to a chronic stage, during which patients may experience debilitating and persisting articular pain for extended periods. This review aims to provide a broad perspective on current knowledge of chikungunya virus pathogenesis by identifying key clinical and experimental studies that have contributed to our understanding of chikungunya virus to date. In addition, the review explores the practical aspects of treatment and management of both acute and chronic chikungunya virus based on clinical experience during chikungunya virus outbreaks. Finally, recent findings on potential therapeutic solutions-from antiviral agents to immunomodulators-are reviewed to provide both viral immunologists and clinical rheumatologists with a balanced perspective on the nature of a reemerging arboviral disease of significant public health concern, and insight into future therapeutic approaches to better address the treatment and management of chikungunya virus. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.