[Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

2002-11-01

Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

State Arts Policy: Trends and Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowell, Julia F.

2008-01-01

State arts agencies (SAAs)--key players within the U.S. system of public support for the arts--face growing economic, political, and demographic challenges to the roles and missions they adopted when founded in the mid-1960s. This report, the fourth and final in a multiyear study, looks at state arts agencies' efforts to rethink their roles and…

Moving forward: Responding to and mitigating effects of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Claudia Regan; Barry Bollenbacher; Rob Gump; Mike Hillis

2014-01-01

The final webinar in the Future Forest Webinar Series provided an example of how managers utilized available science to address questions about post-epidemic forest conditions. Assessments of current conditions and projected trends, and how these compare with historical patterns, provide important information for land management planning. Large-scale disturbance events...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bessette, R.D.

The paper discusses the pressures on the industrial boiler owner today which affect how he meets his energy needs. As a result of these pressures, especially the environmental regulations, the author sees some major trends which may be indicative of what the future will hold and he discusses these. The author finally describes what the industrial power plant will be in the next 10--20 years.

Visualizing the future: technology competency development in clinical medicine, and implications for medical education.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Malathi; Keenan, Craig R; Yager, Joel

2006-01-01

In this article, the authors ask three questions. First, what will physicians need to know in order to be effective in the future? Second, what role will technology play in achieving that high level of effectiveness? Third, what specific skill sets will physicians need to master in order to become effective? Through three case vignettes describing past, present, and potential future medical practices, the authors identify trends in major medical, technological and cultural shifts that will shape medical education and practice. From these cases, the authors generate a series of technology-related competencies and skill sets that physicians will need to remain leaders in the delivery of medical care. Physicians will choose how they will be end-users of technology, technology developers, and/or the interface between users and developers. These choices will guide the types of skills each physician will need to acquire. Finally, the authors explore the implications of these trends for medical educators, including the competencies that will be required of educators as they develop the medical curriculum. Examining historical and social trends, including how users adopt current and emerging technologies, allows us to anticipate changes in the practice of medicine. By considering market pressures, global trends and emerging technologies, medical educators and practicing physicians may prepare themselves for the changes likely to occur in the medical curriculum and in the marketplace.

Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna

2017-12-01

This paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60-90 years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highlight a general decrease of the annual rainfall at a mean rate of 22 mm per decade but, in many cases, the tendencies are not statistically significant. Conversely, the annual mean temperature exhibits an upward trend, statistically significant in the majority of cases, with a warming rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. With reference to the model projections and the annual precipitation, the results are not concordant; the deviations between models in the same period are higher than the future changes at medium- (2031-2040) and long-term (2051-2060) and highlight that the model uncertainty and variability is high. According to the climate model projections, the warming of the study area is unequivocal; a mean positive increment of 0.8 °C at medium-term and 1.1 °C at long-term is expected with respect to the reference period (2003-2012) and the scenario RCP4.5; the increments grow to 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C for the RCP8.5. Finally, in order to check the observed climate change signals, the climate model projections were compared with the trends based on the historical data. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with reference to the precipitation; a systematic underestimation of the trend values with respect to the models, at medium- and long-term, is observed for the temperature data.

Data Acquisition and Mass Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vande Vyvre, P.

2004-08-01

The experiments performed at supercolliders will constitute a new challenge in several disciplines of High Energy Physics and Information Technology. This will definitely be the case for data acquisition and mass storage. The microelectronics, communication, and computing industries are maintaining an exponential increase of the performance of their products. The market of commodity products remains the largest and the most competitive market of technology products. This constitutes a strong incentive to use these commodity products extensively as components to build the data acquisition and computing infrastructures of the future generation of experiments. The present generation of experiments in Europe and in the US already constitutes an important step in this direction. The experience acquired in the design and the construction of the present experiments has to be complemented by a large R&D effort executed with good awareness of industry developments. The future experiments will also be expected to follow major trends of our present world: deliver physics results faster and become more and more visible and accessible. The present evolution of the technologies and the burgeoning of GRID projects indicate that these trends will be made possible. This paper includes a brief overview of the technologies currently used for the different tasks of the experimental data chain: data acquisition, selection, storage, processing, and analysis. The major trends of the computing and networking technologies are then indicated with particular attention paid to their influence on the future experiments. Finally, the vision of future data acquisition and processing systems and their promise for future supercolliders is presented.

Using natural archives to track sources and long-term trends of pollution: some final thoughts and suggestions for future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blais, Jules M.; Rosen, Michael R.; Smol, John P.

2015-01-01

Newly produced, as well as some so-called legacy contaminants, continue to be released into the environment at an accelerated rate. Given the general lack of integrated, direct monitoring programs, the use of natural archival records of contaminants will almost certainly continue to increase. We conclude this volume with a short chapter highlighting some of our final thoughts, with a focus on a call to action to develop and apply methodologies to assess the fidelity of the archival record.

Comparative Cognition: Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Beran, Michael J.; Parrish, Audrey E.; Perdue, Bonnie M.; Washburn, David A.

2014-01-01

Comparative cognition is the field of inquiry concerned with understanding the cognitive abilities and mechanisms that are evident in nonhuman species. Assessments of animal cognition have a long history, but in recent years there has been an explosion of new research topics, and a general broadening of the phylogenetic map of animal cognition. To review the past of comparative cognition, we describe the historical trends. In regards to the present state, we examine current “hot topics” in comparative cognition. Finally, we offer our unique and combined thoughts on the future of the field. PMID:25419047

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This is the Final Report representing the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirements of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMIC) for space communication applications. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

Automated data collection in single particle electron microscopy

PubMed Central

Tan, Yong Zi; Cheng, Anchi; Potter, Clinton S.; Carragher, Bridget

2016-01-01

Automated data collection is an integral part of modern workflows in single particle electron microscopy (EM) research. This review surveys the software packages available for automated single particle EM data collection. The degree of automation at each stage of data collection is evaluated, and the capabilities of the software packages are described. Finally, future trends in automation are discussed. PMID:26671944

Future methods in pharmacy practice research.

PubMed

Almarsdottir, A B; Babar, Z U D

2016-06-01

This article describes the current and future practice of pharmacy scenario underpinning and guiding this research and then suggests future directions and strategies for such research. First, it sets the scene by discussing the key drivers which could influence the change in pharmacy practice research. These are demographics, technology and professional standards. Second, deriving from this, it seeks to predict and forecast the future shifts in use of methodologies. Third, new research areas and availability of data impacting on future methods are discussed. These include the impact of aging information technology users on healthcare, understanding and responding to cultural and social disparities, implementing multidisciplinary initiatives to improve health care, medicines optimization and predictive risk analysis, and pharmacy as business and health care institution. Finally, implications of the trends for pharmacy practice research methods are discussed.

Aeroelasticity at the NASA Langley Research Center Recent progress, new challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, P. W.

1985-01-01

Recent progress in aeroelasticity, particularly at the NASA Langley Research Center is reviewed to look at the questions answered and questions raised, and to attempt to define appropriate research emphasis needed in the near future and beyond. The paper is focused primarily on the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Program because Langley is the lead NASA center for aerospace structures research, and essentially is the only one working in depth in the area of aeroelasticity. Historical trends in aeroelasticity are reviewed broadly in terms of technology and staffing particularly at the LaRC. Then, selected studies of the Loads and Aeroelasticity Division at LaRC and others over the past three years are presented with attention paid to unresolved questions. Finally, based on the results of these studies and on perceptions of design trends and aircraft operational requirements, future research needs in aeroelasticity are discussed.

Harnessing Light: Capitalizing on Optical Science Trends and Challenges for Future Research. Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Svedberg, Erik

2014-02-06

The committee has during the earlier period finalized their work on the report, Optics and Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation (2013) . The report did undergo review and initial editorial processing. The NRC released a pre-publication report on August 13, 2012. A final report is now available. The study director has been able to practice his skills in running a national academies committee. From a research perspective the grant has generated a report with recommendations to the government. The work itself is the meetings where the committee convened to hear presenters and to discuss the status of optics andmore » photonics as well as writing the report.« less

Multi-Core Processors: An Enabling Technology for Embedded Distributed Model-Based Control (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

generation of process partitioning, a thread pipelining becomes possible. In this paper we briefly summarize the requirements and trends for FADEC based... FADEC environment, presenting a hypothetical realization of an example application. Finally we discuss the application of Time-Triggered...based control applications of the future. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Gas turbine, FADEC , Multi-core processing technology, disturbed based control

Present situation and trend of precision guidance technology and its intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Zhengguo; Liu, Tiandong

2017-11-01

This paper first introduces the basic concepts of precision guidance technology and artificial intelligence technology. Then gives a brief introduction of intelligent precision guidance technology, and with the help of development of intelligent weapon based on deep learning project in foreign: LRASM missile project, TRACE project, and BLADE project, this paper gives an overview of the current foreign precision guidance technology. Finally, the future development trend of intelligent precision guidance technology is summarized, mainly concentrated in the multi objectives, intelligent classification, weak target detection and recognition, intelligent between complex environment intelligent jamming and multi-source, multi missile cooperative fighting and other aspects.

Analysis of Science and Technology Trend Based on Word Usage in Digitized Books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jinhyuk; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-03-01

Throughout mankind's history, forecasting and predicting future has been a long-lasting interest to our society. Many fortune-tellers have tried to forecast the future by ``divine'' items. Sci-fi writers have also imagined what the future would look like. However most of them have been illogical and unscientific. Meanwhile, scientists have also attempted to discover future trend of science. Many researchers have used quantitative models to study how new ideas are used and spread. Besides the modeling works, in the early 21st century, the rise of data science has provided another prospect of forecasting future. However many studies have focused on very limited set of period or age, due to the limitations of dataset. Hence, many questions still remained unanswered. Fortunately, Google released a new dataset named ``Google N-Gram Dataset.'' This dataset provides us with 5 million words worth of literature dating from 1520 to 2008, and this is nearly 4% of publications ever printed. With this new time-varying dataset, we studied the spread and development of technologies by searching ``Science and Technology'' related words from 1800 to 2000. By statistical analysis, some general scaling laws were discovered. And finally, we determined factors that strongly affect the lifecycle of a word.

Neuronavigation in the surgical management of brain tumors: current and future trends

PubMed Central

Orringer, Daniel A; Golby, Alexandra; Jolesz, Ferenc

2013-01-01

Neuronavigation has become an ubiquitous tool in the surgical management of brain tumors. This review describes the use and limitations of current neuronavigational systems for brain tumor biopsy and resection. Methods for integrating intraoperative imaging into neuronavigational datasets developed to address the diminishing accuracy of positional information that occurs over the course of brain tumor resection are discussed. In addition, the process of integration of functional MRI and tractography into navigational models is reviewed. Finally, emerging concepts and future challenges relating to the development and implementation of experimental imaging technologies in the navigational environment are explored. PMID:23116076

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

2017-04-04

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The final trend results are presented with examples of how to interpret the results from each trend model. Interpretation of the trend results, such as causal analysis, is not included.

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

PubMed

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses the direction of future missions and it's significance to the Deep Space Network. The topics include: 1) The Deep Space Network (DSN); 2) Past Missions Driving DSN Evolution; 3) The Changing Mission Paradigm; 4) Assessing Future Mission Needs; 5) Link Support Trends; 6) Downlink Rate Trends; 7) Uplink Rate Trends; 8) End-to-End Link Difficulty Trends; 9) Summary: Future Mission Trend Drivers; and 10) Conclusion: Implications for the DSN.

Research on Green Manufacturing Innovation Based on Resource Environment Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jie, Xu

2017-11-01

Green manufacturing is a trend of manufacturing industry in the future, and is of great significance to resource protection and environmental protection. This paper first studies the green manufacturing innovation system, and then decomposes the green manufacturing innovation dimensions, and constructs the green manufacturing innovation dimension space. Finally, from the view of resource protection and environmental protection, this paper explores the path of green manufacturing innovation.

NASA Past, Present, and Future: The Use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) Electronics in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; Guertin, Steven M.

2017-01-01

NASA has a long history of using commercial grade electronics in space. In this presentation we will provide a brief history of NASA's trends and approaches to commercial grade electronics focusing on processing and memory systems. This will include providing summary information on the space hazards to electronics as well as NASA mission trade space. We will also discuss developing recommendations for risk management approaches to Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts usage in space. Two examples will be provided focusing on a near-earth Polar-orbiting spacecraft as well as a mission to Mars. The final portion will discuss emerging trends impacting usage.

The Increasing Concentrations of Atmospheric CO2: How Much, When and Why?

DOE Data Explorer

Marland, Gregg [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Boden, Tom [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

2009-01-01

There is now a sense that the world community has achieved a broad consensus that: 1.) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasing, 2.) this increase is due largely to the combustion of fossil fuels, and 3.) this increase is likely to lead to changes in the global climate. This consensus is sufficiently strong that virtually all countries are involved in trying to achieve a functioning agreement on how to confront, and mitigate, these changes in climate. This paper reviews the first two of these components in a quantitative way. We look at the data on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and on the magnitude of fossil-fuel combustion, and we examine the trends in both. We review the extent to which cause and effect can be demonstrated between the trends in fossil-fuel burning and the trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Finally, we look at scenarios for the future use of fossil fuels and what these portend for the future of atmospheric chemistry. Along the way we examine how and where fossil fuels are used on the Earth and some of the issues that are raised by any effort to reduce fossil-fuel use.

Cross-National Trends in Religious Service Attendance

PubMed Central

Brenner, Philip S.

2016-01-01

The nature of religious change and the future of religion have been central questions of social science since its inception. But empirical research on this question has been quite American-centric, encouraged by the conventional wisdom that the United States is an outlier of religiosity in the developed world, and, more pragmatically, by the availability of survey data. The dramatic growth in the number and reach of cross-national surveys over the past two decades has offered a corrective. These data have allowed research on religious trends in the United States, Canada, and Europe, putting American trends into comparative relief. This research synthesis reviews the past quarter century of cross-national comparative survey research on religious behavior, focusing on religious service attendance as a commonly measured behavior that is arguably more equivalent across societies and cultures than other measures of religiosity. The lack of evidence for religious revival is highlighted, noting instead declining rates of attendance in the United States and Canada, and either declining rates or low “bottomed-out” stability in Western Europe, most of Eastern Europe, and Australia and New Zealand. Finally, countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia are discussed to the extent that research allows, before a call for future research—in these places in particular—is made in order to correct for the Western and Christian focus of much of the research on cross-national religious trends. PMID:27274579

A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgis, Costas

1992-09-01

Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

Fuel ethanol production: process design trends and integration opportunities.

PubMed

Cardona, Carlos A; Sánchez, Oscar J

2007-09-01

Current fuel ethanol research and development deals with process engineering trends for improving biotechnological production of ethanol. In this work, the key role that process design plays during the development of cost-effective technologies is recognized through the analysis of major trends in process synthesis, modeling, simulation and optimization related to ethanol production. Main directions in techno-economical evaluation of fuel ethanol processes are described as well as some prospecting configurations. The most promising alternatives for compensating ethanol production costs by the generation of valuable co-products are analyzed. Opportunities for integration of fuel ethanol production processes and their implications are underlined. Main ways of process intensification through reaction-reaction, reaction-separation and separation-separation processes are analyzed in the case of bioethanol production. Some examples of energy integration during ethanol production are also highlighted. Finally, some concluding considerations on current and future research tendencies in fuel ethanol production regarding process design and integration are presented.

Digital media in the home: technical and research challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribas-Corbera, Jordi

2005-03-01

This article attempts to identify some of the technology and research challenges facing the digital media industry in the future. We first discuss several trends in the industry, such as the rapid growth of broadband Internet networks and the emergence of networking and media-capable devices in the home. Next, we present technical challenges that result from these trends, such as effective media interoperability in devices, and provide a brief overview of Windows Media, which is one of the technologies in the market attempting to address these challenges. Finally, given these trends and the state of the art, we argue that further research on data compression, encoder optimization, and multi-format transcoding can potentially make a significant technical and business impact in digital media. We also explore the reasons that research on related techniques such as wavelets or scalable video coding is having a relatively minor impact in today"s practical digital media systems.

IBM Cloud Computing Powering a Smarter Planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinzy; Fang, Xing; Guo, Zhe; Niu, Meng Hua; Cao, Fan; Yue, Shuang; Liu, Qin Yu

With increasing need for intelligent systems supporting the world's businesses, Cloud Computing has emerged as a dominant trend to provide a dynamic infrastructure to make such intelligence possible. The article introduced how to build a smarter planet with cloud computing technology. First, it introduced why we need cloud, and the evolution of cloud technology. Secondly, it analyzed the value of cloud computing and how to apply cloud technology. Finally, it predicted the future of cloud in the smarter planet.

Enantioseparations by capillary electrochromatography.

PubMed

Fanali, S; Catarcini, P; Blaschke, G; Chankvetadze, B

2001-09-01

The review summarizes recent developments in enantioseparations by capillary electrochromatography (CEC). Selected fundamental aspects of CEC are discussed in order to stress those features which may allow the success of this technique in the competitive field of enantioseparations. In addition, the comparative characteristics of the different modes of chiral CEC and the stationary phases are presented. The effects of the characteristics of the stationary and liquid phases and operational conditions on the separation results are discussed. Finally, some future trends are briefly addressed.

Analysis on the hot spot and trend of the foreign assembly building research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Xiaoqing; Luo, Yanbing

2017-03-01

First of all, the paper analyzes the research on the front of the assembly building in the past 15 years. This article mainly adopts the method of CO word analysis, construct the co word matrix, correlation matrix, and then into a dissimilarity matrix, and on this basis, using factor analysis, cluster analysis and multi scale analysis method to study the structure of prefabricated construction field display. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed, and summarized the current research focus of foreign prefabricated construction mainly concentrated in 7 aspects: embankment construction, wood construction, bridge construction, crane layout, PCM wall and glass system, based on neural network test, energy saving and recycling, and forecast the future trend of development study.

Trends in biotechnological production of fuel ethanol from different feedstocks.

PubMed

Sánchez, Oscar J; Cardona, Carlos A

2008-09-01

Present work deals with the biotechnological production of fuel ethanol from different raw materials. The different technologies for producing fuel ethanol from sucrose-containing feedstocks (mainly sugar cane), starchy materials and lignocellulosic biomass are described along with the major research trends for improving them. The complexity of the biomass processing is recognized through the analysis of the different stages involved in the conversion of lignocellulosic complex into fermentable sugars. The features of fermentation processes for the three groups of studied feedstocks are discussed. Comparative indexes for the three major types of feedstocks for fuel ethanol production are presented. Finally, some concluding considerations on current research and future tendencies in the production of fuel ethanol regarding the pretreatment and biological conversion of the feedstocks are presented.

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

PubMed Central

Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

PubMed

Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Health psychology in Ghana: A review of the multidisciplinary origins of a young sub-field and its future prospects.

PubMed

de-Graft Aikins, Ama

2018-03-01

This article presents a historical overview of psychology applied to health and health psychology in Ghana. A brief history of health, illness and healthcare in Ghana is introduced. Then, the history of psychology in Ghana is presented, with signposts of the major turns in the field in relation to psychology and other disciplines applied to health and the emergence of health psychology as a sub-field. Selected health psychology studies are reviewed to highlight ideological trends in the field. Finally, future prospects are considered in terms of how the sub-field can transition into an established critical field with unique contributions to make to global health psychology.

Scaling induced performance challenges/limitations of on-chip metal interconnects and comparisons with optical interconnects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, Pawan

The miniaturization paradigm for silicon integrated circuits has resulted in a tremendous cost and performance advantage. Aggressive shrinking of devices provides faster transistors and a greater functionality for circuit design. However, scaling induced smaller wire cross-sections coupled with longer lengths owing to larger chip areas, result in a steady deterioration of interconnects. This degradation in interconnect trends threatens to slow down the rapid growth along Moore's law. This work predicts that the situation is worse than anticipated. It shows that in the light of technology and reliability constraints, scaling induced increase in electron surface scattering, fractional cross section area occupied by the highly resistive barrier, and realistic interconnect operation temperature will lead to a significant rise in effective resistivity of modern copper based interconnects. We start by discussing various technology factors affecting copper resistivity. We, next, develop simulation tools to model these effects. Using these tools, we quantify the increase in realistic copper resistivity as a function of future technology nodes, under various technology assumptions. Subsequently, we evaluate the impact of these technology effects on delay and power dissipation of global signaling interconnects. Modern long on-chip wires use repeaters, which dramatically improves their delay and bandwidth. We quantify the repeated wire delays and power dissipation using realistic resistance trends at future nodes. With the motivation of reducing power, we formalize a methodology, which trades power with delay very efficiently for repeated wires. Using this method, we find that although the repeater power comes down, the total power dissipation due to wires is still found to be very large at future nodes. Finally, we explore optical interconnects as a possible substitute, for specific interconnect applications. We model an optical receiver and waveguides. Using this we assess future optical system performance. Finally, we compare the delay and power of future metal interconnects with that of optical interconnects for global signaling application. We also compare the power dissipation of the two approaches for an upper level clock distribution application. We find that for long on-chip communication links, optical interconnects have lower latencies than future metal interconnects at comparable levels of power dissipation.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

Review of concentrating solar thermal power industry in China: Status quo, problems, trend and countermeasures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Jiajun

2018-01-01

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) industry is a strategic emerging industry in China. Its further development is of great significance for promoting the energy revolution, achieving energy saving and emission reduction. In this paper, China’s CSP industry is systematically analysed. First of all, the status quo is elaborated from the perspectives of relevant policies and regulations, market and generation technology development. Secondly, the problems and the underlying reasons of China’s CSP industry are deeply studied. On this basis, the future trends of CSP are expounded on the three levels of policy, market and power generation technology. Finally, a series of feasible countermeasures are put forward, designed to promote the development of CSP industry and the transformation of energy structure.

Current trends in dental implants

PubMed Central

Gaviria, Laura; Salcido, John Paul; Guda, Teja

2014-01-01

Tooth loss is very a very common problem; therefore, the use of dental implants is also a common practice. Although research on dental implant designs, materials and techniques has increased in the past few years and is expected to expand in the future, there is still a lot of work involved in the use of better biomaterials, implant design, surface modification and functionalization of surfaces to improve the long-term outcomes of the treatment. This paper provides a brief history and evolution of dental implants. It also describes the types of implants that have been developed, and the parameters that are presently used in the design of dental implants. Finally, it describes the trends that are employed to improve dental implant surfaces, and current technologies used for the analysis and design of the implants. PMID:24868501

Advancements in the oral delivery of Docetaxel: challenges, current state-of-the-art and future trends

PubMed Central

Sohail, Muhammad Farhan; Rehman, Mubashar; Sarwar, Hafiz Shoaib; Naveed, Sara; Salman, Omer; Bukhari, Nadeem Irfan; Hussain, Irshad; Webster, Thomas J; Shahnaz, Gul

2018-01-01

The oral delivery of cancer chemotherapeutic drugs is challenging due to low bioavailability, gastrointestinal side effects, first-pass metabolism and P-glycoprotein efflux pumps. Thus, chemotherapeutic drugs, including Docetaxel, are administered via an intravenous route, which poses many disadvantages of its own. Recent advances in pharmaceutical research have focused on designing new and efficient drug delivery systems for site-specific targeting, thus leading to improved bioavailability and pharmacokinetics. A decent number of studies have been reported for the safe and effective oral delivery of Docetaxel. These nanocarriers, including liposomes, polymeric nanoparticles, metallic nanoparticles, hybrid nanoparticles, dendrimers and so on, have shown promising results in research papers and clinical trials. The present article comprehensively reviews the research efforts made so far in designing various advancements in the oral delivery of Docetaxel. Different strategies to improve oral bioavailability, prevent first-pass metabolism and inhibition of efflux pumping leading to improved pharmacokinetics and anticancer activity are discussed. The final portion of this review article presents key issues such as safety of nanomaterials, regulatory approval and future trends in nanomedicine research. PMID:29922053

[Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: IV. Risks and future trends].

PubMed

Anisimov, S V

2009-01-01

Motor dysfunctions in Parkinson's disease are believed to be primarily due to the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons located in the substantia nigra pars compacta. Numerous cell replacement therapy approaches have been developed and tested, including these based on donor cell transplantation (embryonic and adult tissue-derived), adult mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs)-, neural stem cells (hNSCs)- and finally human embryonic stem cells (hESCs)-based. Despite the progress achieved, numerous difficulties prevent wider practical application of stem cell-based therapy approaches for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Among the latter, ethical, safety and technical issues stand out. Current series of reviews (Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: I. Embryonic and adult donor tissue-based applications; II. Adult stem cell-based applications; III. Neonatal, fetal and embryonic stem cell-based applications; IV. Risks and future trends) aims providing a balanced and updated view on various issues associated with cell types (including stem cells) in regards to their potential in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Essential features of the individual cell subtypes, principles of available cell handling protocols, transplantation, and safety issues are discussed extensively.

Advancements in the oral delivery of Docetaxel: challenges, current state-of-the-art and future trends.

PubMed

Sohail, Muhammad Farhan; Rehman, Mubashar; Sarwar, Hafiz Shoaib; Naveed, Sara; Salman, Omer; Bukhari, Nadeem Irfan; Hussain, Irshad; Webster, Thomas J; Shahnaz, Gul

2018-01-01

The oral delivery of cancer chemotherapeutic drugs is challenging due to low bioavailability, gastrointestinal side effects, first-pass metabolism and P-glycoprotein efflux pumps. Thus, chemotherapeutic drugs, including Docetaxel, are administered via an intravenous route, which poses many disadvantages of its own. Recent advances in pharmaceutical research have focused on designing new and efficient drug delivery systems for site-specific targeting, thus leading to improved bioavailability and pharmacokinetics. A decent number of studies have been reported for the safe and effective oral delivery of Docetaxel. These nanocarriers, including liposomes, polymeric nanoparticles, metallic nanoparticles, hybrid nanoparticles, dendrimers and so on, have shown promising results in research papers and clinical trials. The present article comprehensively reviews the research efforts made so far in designing various advancements in the oral delivery of Docetaxel. Different strategies to improve oral bioavailability, prevent first-pass metabolism and inhibition of efflux pumping leading to improved pharmacokinetics and anticancer activity are discussed. The final portion of this review article presents key issues such as safety of nanomaterials, regulatory approval and future trends in nanomedicine research.

A State-of-the-Art Review on Soil Reinforcement Technology Using Natural Plant Fiber Materials: Past Findings, Present Trends and Future Directions.

PubMed

Gowthaman, Sivakumar; Nakashima, Kazunori; Kawasaki, Satoru

2018-04-04

Incorporating sustainable materials into geotechnical applications increases day by day due to the consideration of impacts on healthy geo-environment and future generations. The environmental issues associated with conventional synthetic materials such as cement, plastic-composites, steel and ashes necessitate alternative approaches in geotechnical engineering. Recently, natural fiber materials in place of synthetic material have gained momentum as an emulating soil-reinforcement technique in sustainable geotechnics. However, the natural fibers are innately different from such synthetic material whereas behavior of fiber-reinforced soil is influenced not only by physical-mechanical properties but also by biochemical properties. In the present review, the applicability of natural plant fibers as oriented distributed fiber-reinforced soil (ODFS) and randomly distributed fiber-reinforced soil (RDFS) are extensively discussed and emphasized the inspiration of RDFS based on the emerging trend. Review also attempts to explore the importance of biochemical composition of natural-fibers on the performance in subsoil reinforced conditions. The treatment methods which enhances the behavior and lifetime of fibers, are also presented. While outlining the current potential of fiber reinforcement technology, some key research gaps have been highlighted at their importance. Finally, the review briefly documents the future direction of the fiber reinforcement technology by associating bio-mediated technological line.

A State-of-the-Art Review on Soil Reinforcement Technology Using Natural Plant Fiber Materials: Past Findings, Present Trends and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Gowthaman, Sivakumar; Nakashima, Kazunori; Kawasaki, Satoru

2018-01-01

Incorporating sustainable materials into geotechnical applications increases day by day due to the consideration of impacts on healthy geo-environment and future generations. The environmental issues associated with conventional synthetic materials such as cement, plastic-composites, steel and ashes necessitate alternative approaches in geotechnical engineering. Recently, natural fiber materials in place of synthetic material have gained momentum as an emulating soil-reinforcement technique in sustainable geotechnics. However, the natural fibers are innately different from such synthetic material whereas behavior of fiber-reinforced soil is influenced not only by physical-mechanical properties but also by biochemical properties. In the present review, the applicability of natural plant fibers as oriented distributed fiber-reinforced soil (ODFS) and randomly distributed fiber-reinforced soil (RDFS) are extensively discussed and emphasized the inspiration of RDFS based on the emerging trend. Review also attempts to explore the importance of biochemical composition of natural-fibers on the performance in subsoil reinforced conditions. The treatment methods which enhances the behavior and lifetime of fibers, are also presented. While outlining the current potential of fiber reinforcement technology, some key research gaps have been highlighted at their importance. Finally, the review briefly documents the future direction of the fiber reinforcement technology by associating bio-mediated technological line. PMID:29617285

Trends in the biosynthesis and production of the immunosuppressant tacrolimus (FK506).

PubMed

Barreiro, Carlos; Martínez-Castro, Miriam

2014-01-01

The current off-patent state of tacrolimus (FK506) has opened the hunting season for new generic pharmaceutical formulations of this immunosuppressant. This fact has boosted the scientific and industrial research on tacrolimus for the last 5 years in order to improve its production. The fast discovery of tacrolimus producer strains has generated a huge number of producers, which presents the biosynthetic cluster of FK506 as a high promiscuous genetic region. For the first time, the current state-of-the-art on the tacrolimus biosynthesis, production improvements and drug purification is reviewed. On one hand, all the genes involved in the tacrolimus biosynthesis, in addition to the traditional PKS/NRPS, as well as their regulation are analysed. On the other hand, tacrolimus direct and indirect precursors are reviewed as a straight manner to improve the final yield, which is a current trend in the field. Twenty years of industrial and scientific improvements on tacrolimus production are summarised, whereas future trends are also drafted.

Soviet military strategy towards 2010. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McConnell, J.M.

1989-11-01

This paper tries to identify significant current trends that may continue into the 21st century and shape Soviet military strategy. An arms control trend, stemming from the Soviet concept of reasonable sufficiency, seems slated to handicap the USSR severely in options for fighting and winning large-scale conventional and theater-nuclear wars. Moscow evidently feels the strategic nuclear sphere will be the key arena of military competition in the future. First, the USSR now shows a greater commitment to offensive counterforce than was true of the period before reasonable sufficiency. Second, Moscow's interest in the strategic nuclear sphere will be reinforced bymore » a long-term trend toward space warfare. However, it may be possible to soften the competition in this sphere through arms control. Prominent Soviets have already begun to suggest that, if the U.S. will limit its SDI ambitions to a thin defense, Moscow might actually prefer mutual comprehensive ABM deployments to continued adherence to the 1972 ABM Treaty.« less

Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

Seismic Shifts. Future Forces. Call them whatever you'd like. The Sixteen Trends revealed in this benchmark book will have a profound impact on our future. Noted futurist, educator, communicator, executive and leadership counsel, author, and international speaker Gary Marx makes the case for those trends and speculates on their implications for…

High School and Youth Trends

MedlinePlus

... High School and Youth Trends Monitoring the Future Survey: High School and Youth Trends Email Facebook Twitter ... December 2017 This year's Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of drug use and attitudes among 8th, 10th, ...

Behavioral medicine: a voyage to the future.

PubMed

Keefe, Francis J

2011-04-01

This paper discusses trends and future directions in behavioral medicine. It is divided into three sections. The first briefly reviews key developments in the history of behavioral medicine. The second section highlights trends and future directions in pain research and practice as a way of illustrating future directions for behavioral medicine. Consistent with the biopsychosocial model of pain, this section focuses on trends and future directions in three key areas: biological, psychological, and social. The third section describes recent Society of Behavioral Medicine initiatives designed to address some of the key challenges facing our field as we prepare for the future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura; Brown, Austin; Newes, Emily

The transportation sector is changing, influenced by concurrent, ongoing, dynamic trends that could dramatically affect the future energy landscape, including effects on the potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Battery cost reductions and improved performance coupled with a growing number of electric vehicle model offerings are enabling greater battery electric vehicle market penetration, and advances in fuel cell technology and decreases in hydrogen production costs are leading to initial fuel cell vehicle offerings. Radically more efficient vehicles based on both conventional and new drivetrain technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle-mile. Net impacts also depend on the energy sources usedmore » for propulsion, and these are changing with increased use of renewable energy and unconventional fossil fuel resources. Connected and automated vehicles are emerging for personal and freight transportation systems and could increase use of low- or non-emitting technologies and systems; however, the net effects of automation on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. The longstanding trend of an annual increase in transportation demand has reversed for personal vehicle miles traveled in recent years, demonstrating the possibility of lower-travel future scenarios. Finally, advanced biofuel pathways have continued to develop, highlighting low-carbon and in some cases carbon-negative fuel pathways. We discuss the potential for transformative reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions through these emerging transportation-sector technologies and trends and present a Clean Transportation Sector Initiative scenario for such reductions, which are summarized in Table ES-1.« less

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf. PMID:27997536

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

PubMed

Brennan, Catherine E; Blanchard, Hannah; Fennel, Katja

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf.

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network

PubMed Central

Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. PMID:29420584

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

PubMed

Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

2013-08-01

This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technologicalmore » breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.« less

Using Future Trends to Inform Planning/Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, John V.

1995-01-01

Explores the reasons for incorporating trend analysis of librarianship into library planning and marketing. Key financial and technological issues are reviewed, and the techniques of environmental scanning and alternative scenario-building to incorporate future trends are discussed. (AEF)

Taking Charge of Your Career Path: A Future Trend of the Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiMattina, Cara; Ferris, Lisa-Anne

2013-01-01

Workplace trends portray relevant information regarding the present and future of the workforce and its members. These trends signify changes within the workplace regarding performance, retention, satisfaction and many other areas that affect the individual employee, as well as the organization and industry as a whole. Trends can be seen in…

Gait recognition based on integral outline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Guan; Fang, Lv

2017-02-01

Biometric identification technology replaces traditional security technology, which has become a trend, and gait recognition also has become a hot spot of research because its feature is difficult to imitate and theft. This paper presents a gait recognition system based on integral outline of human body. The system has three important aspects: the preprocessing of gait image, feature extraction and classification. Finally, using a method of polling to evaluate the performance of the system, and summarizing the problems existing in the gait recognition and the direction of development in the future.

Future of health care delivery in iran, opportunities and threats.

PubMed

Rajabi, F; Esmailzadeh, H; Rostamigooran, N; Majdzadeh, R; Doshmangir, L

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of important social and technological trends on health care delivery, in the context of developing "Iran's Health System Reform Plan by 2025". A detailed review of the national and international literature was done to identify the main trends affecting health system. To collect the experts' opinions about important trends and their impact on health care delivery, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and semi-structured in-depth interviews techniques were used. The study was based on the STEEP model. Final results were approved in an expert's panel session. The important social and technological trends, affecting health system in Iran in the next 15 years are demographic transition, epidemiologic transition, increasing bio-environmental pollution, increasing slums, increasing private sector partnership in health care delivery, moving toward knowledge-based society, development of information and communication technology, increasing use of high technologies in health system, and development of traditional and alternative medicine. The opportunities and threats resulting from the above mentioned trends were also assessed in this study. Increasing healthcare cost due to some trends like demographic and epidemiologic transition and uncontrolled increase in using new technologies in health care is one of the most important threats that the health system will be facing. The opportunities that advancement in technology and moving toward knowledge-based society create are important and should not be ignored.

Probiotic Incorporation in Edible Films and Coatings: Bioactive Solution for Functional Foods

PubMed Central

Pavli, Foteini; Tassou, Chrysoula

2018-01-01

Nowadays, the consumption of food products containing probiotics, has increased worldwide due to concerns regarding healthy diet and wellbeing. This trend has received a lot of attention from the food industries, aiming to produce novel probiotic foods, and from researchers, to improve the existing methodologies for probiotic delivery or to develop and investigate new possible applications. In this sense, edible films and coatings are being studied as probiotic carriers with many applications. There is a wide variety of materials with film-forming ability, possessing different characteristics and subsequently affecting the final product. This manuscript aims to provide significant information regarding probiotics and active/bioactive packaging, to review applications of probiotic edible films and coatings, and to discuss certain limitations of their use as well as the current legislation and future trends. PMID:29300362

Trends in cochlear implants.

PubMed

Zeng, Fan-Gang

2004-01-01

More than 60,000 people worldwide use cochlear implants as a means to restore functional hearing. Although individual performance variability is still high, an average implant user can talk on the phone in a quiet environment. Cochlear-implant research has also matured as a field, as evidenced by the exponential growth in both the patient population and scientific publication. The present report examines current issues related to audiologic, clinical, engineering, anatomic, and physiologic aspects of cochlear implants, focusing on their psychophysical, speech, music, and cognitive performance. This report also forecasts clinical and research trends related to presurgical evaluation, fitting protocols, signal processing, and postsurgical rehabilitation in cochlear implants. Finally, a future landscape in amplification is presented that requires a unique, yet complementary, contribution from hearing aids, middle ear implants, and cochlear implants to achieve a total solution to the entire spectrum of hearing loss treatment and management.

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-07-01

The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, ...

Recent Progress in Bionic Condensate Microdrop Self-Propelling Surfaces.

PubMed

Gong, Xiaojing; Gao, Xuefeng; Jiang, Lei

2017-12-01

Bionic condensate microdrop self-propelling (CMDSP) surfaces are attracting increased attention as novel, low-adhesivity superhydrophobic surfaces due to their value in fundamental research and technological innovation, e.g., for enhancing heat transfer, energy-effective antifreezing, and electrostatic energy harvesting. Here, the focus is on recent progress in bionic CMDSP surfaces. Metal-based CMDSP surfaces, which are the most promising in their respective fields, are highlighted for use in future applications. The selected topics are divided into four sections: biological prototypes, mechanism and construction rules, fabrication, and applications of metal-based CMDSP surfaces. Finally, the challenges and future development trends in bionic CMDSP surfaces are envisioned, especially the utilization of potential bionic inspiration in the design of more advanced CMDSP surfaces. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

CMIP5 based downscaled temperature over Western Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, M.; Das, L.; Meher, J. K.

2016-12-01

Limited numbers of reliable temperature data is available for assessing warming over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India. India meteorological Department provided many stations having more than 30% missing values. Stations having <30% missing values, were replaced using the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 16 stations having continuous records during 1969-2009 were considered as the "reference stations" for assessing the trends in addition to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison, phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Model(GCMs). Station data indicates higher and rapid (1.41oC) winter warming than the other seasons and least warming was observed in the post monsoon (0.31oC) season. Mean annual warming is 0.84 oC during 1969-2009 indicating the warming over the WHR is more than double the global warming (0.85oC during 1880-2012). The performance of 34 CMIP5 models was evaluated through three different approaches namely comparison of: i) mean seasonal cycle ii) temporal trends and iii) spatial correlation and a rank was assigned to each GCM. How the better performing GCMs able to reproduce the observed spatial details were verified the ERA-interim reanalysis data. Finally station level future downscaled winter temperature has constructed using Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) technique where 2 meter air temperature (T2m) is considered as predictor and station temperature as predictant. Future range of downscaled temperature change for the stations Dheradun, Manali and Gulmarg are 1.3-6.1OC, 1.1-5.8OC and 0.5-5.8OC respectively at the end of 21st century.

Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

2017-03-07

The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO 2 , nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

Simulating the Past, Present and Future of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettelman, Andrew; Hegglin, Michaela

2010-05-01

A comprehensive assessment of coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) performance in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere has been conducted with 18 models. Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons of model representation of UTLS dynamical, radiative and chemical structure have been conducted, using a collection of quantitative grading techniques. The models are able to reproduce the observed climatology of dynamical, radiative and chemical structure in the tropical and extratropical UTLS, despite relatively coarse vertical and horizontal resolution. Diagnostics of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) and Extra-tropical Transition Layer (ExTL) are analyzed. The results provide new insight into the key processes that govern the dynamics and transport in the tropics and extra-tropicsa. The presentation will explain how models are able to reproduce key features of the UTLS, what features they do not reproduce, and why. Model trends over the historical period are also assessed and interannual variability is included in the metrics. Finally, key trends in the UTLS for the future with a given halogen and greenhouse gas scenario are presented, indicating significant changes in tropopause height and temperature, as well as UTLS ozone concentrations in the 21st century due to climate change and ozone recovery.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Trends in Cochlear Implants

PubMed Central

Zeng, Fan-Gang

2004-01-01

More than 60,000 people worldwide use cochlear implants as a means to restore functional hearing. Although individual performance variability is still high, an average implant user can talk on the phone in a quiet environment. Cochlear-implant research has also matured as a field, as evidenced by the exponential growth in both the patient population and scientific publication. The present report examines current issues related to audiologic, clinical, engineering, anatomic, and physiologic aspects of cochlear implants, focusing on their psychophysical, speech, music, and cognitive performance. This report also forecasts clinical and research trends related to presurgical evaluation, fitting protocols, signal processing, and postsurgical rehabilitation in cochlear implants. Finally, a future landscape in amplification is presented that requires a unique, yet complementary, contribution from hearing aids, middle ear implants, and cochlear implants to achieve a total solution to the entire spectrum of hearing loss treatment and management. PMID:15247993

The structure and emerging trends of construction safety management research: a bibliometric review.

PubMed

Liang, Huakang; Zhang, Shoujian; Su, Yikun

2018-03-29

Recently, construction safety management (CSM) practices and systems have become important topics for stakeholders to take care of human resources. However, few studies have attempted to map the global research on CSM. A comprehensive bibliometric review was conducted in this study based on multiple methods. In total, 1172 CSM-related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection database were examined. The analyses focused on publication year, country-institute, publication source, author and research topics. The results indicated that the USA, China, Australia and the UK took leading positions in CSM research. Two branches of journals were identified, namely the branch of engineering science and that of safety science and social science. Additionally, seven themes together with 28 specific topics were detected to allow researchers to track the main structure and temporal evolution of CSM research. Finally, the main research trends and potential research directions were discussed to guide the future research.

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

DOE PAGES

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; ...

2015-03-02

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. In this paper, we show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Easternmore » Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Finally, analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.« less

Role of research aircraft in technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szalai, K. J.

1984-01-01

The United States's aeronautical research program has been rich in the use of research aircraft to explore new flight regimes, develop individual aeronautical concepts, and investigate new vehicle classes and configurations. This paper reviews the NASA supercritical wing, digital fly-by-wire, HiMAT, and AD-1 oblique-wing flight research programs, and draws from these examples general conclusions regarding the role and impact of research aircraft in technology development. The impact of a flight program on spinoff technology is also addressed. The secondary, serendipitous results are often highly significant. Finally, future research aircraft programs are examined for technology trends and expected results.

Men's health studies: origins and trends.

PubMed

Sabo, D

2000-11-01

This article provides a brief outline of the development of men's health studies in the United States. Research on men's health is discussed within critical feminist theories that highlight the reciprocality of gender relations as well as power differences between men and women and among male subgroups. A relational theory of gender and health is used to identify both positive-gendered and negative-gendered health synergies that influence the health processes and outcomes of men and women. Several examples of gendered health synergies are presented to illustrate key concepts. Finally, some directions for future research and advocacy with reference to men's health are outlined.

Computer-assisted cartography: an overview.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guptill, S.C.; Starr, L.E.

1984-01-01

An assessment of the current status of computer-assisted cartography, in part, is biased by one's view of the cartographic process as a whole. From a traditional viewpoint we are concerned about automating the mapping process; from a progressive viewpoint we are concerned about using the tools of computer science to convey spatial information. On the surface these viewpoints appear to be in opposition. However, it is postulated that in the final analysis, they face the same goal. This overview uses the perspectives from two viewpoints to depict the current state of computer-assisted cartography and speculate on future goals, trends, and challenges.-Authors

[Quality improvement potential in the pharmaceutical industry].

PubMed

Nusser, Michael

2007-01-01

The performance of the German pharmaceutical industry, future challenges and obstacles to quality improvement are assessed from a systems-of-innovation perspective, using appropriate innovation indicators. The current close-to-market performance indicators paint an unfavourable picture. Early R&D indicators (e.g., publications, patents), however, reveal a positive trend. A lot of obstacles to quality improvements are identified with respect to knowledge base, knowledge/technology transfer, industrial R&D processes, capital markets, market attractiveness and both regulatory and political framework conditions. On this basis, recommendations will finally be derived to improve quality in the pharmaceutical industry.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

A comparison of rural high school students in Germany with rural Tennessee high school students' mathematics and science achievement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, R. Fredrick

This descriptive study compared the science and mathematics aptitudes and achievement test scores for the final school year students in rural White County and Van Buren County, Tennessee with rural county students in Germany. In accordance with the previous research literature (Stevenson, 2002), German students outperformed U.S. students on The International Trends in Math and Science test (TIMSS). As reform in the U.S. education system has been underway, this study intended to compare German county student final school year performance with White County and Van Buren County (Grade 12) performance in science and mathematics. The entire populations of 176 White and Van Buren Counties senior high final school year students were compared with 120 school final year students from two rural German county high schools. The student responses to identical test and questionnaire items were compared using the t-test statistical analysis. In conclusion after t-test analyses, there was no significant difference (p>.05 level) in student attitudes on the 27 problem achievement and the 35 TIMSS questionnaire items between the sampled population of 120 German students compared with the population of 176 White and Van Buren students. Also, there was no statistically significant difference (p>.05 level) between the German, White, and Van Buren County rural science and math achievement in the TIMSS problem section of the final year test. Based on the research, recommendations to improve U.S. student scores to number one in the world include making changes in teaching methodology in mathematics and science; incorporating pamphlet lessons rather than heavily reliance on textbooks; focusing on problem solving; establishing an online clearinghouse for effective lessons; creating national standards in mathematics and science; matching students' course choices to job aspirations; tracking misbehaving students rather than mainstreaming them into the regular classroom; and designing individual educational plans for every student. Further study and future investigations are recommended from this study to compare White County and Van Buren County Students with other rural county schools in Tennessee, as well as other states. In addition, the Tennessee students' state mandated science and mathematics could be correlated to the TIMMS to identify trends and relationships. Future comparisons of White County and Van Buren County with higher scoring rural Asian students could be done in search of more effective methods of teaching science and mathematics.

Seven Future Trends in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satterlee, Brian; Craig, Will

In the future, seven trends--already firmly established--will become dominant in the world of work. Those trends are as follows: (1) middle management positions will continue to be cut; (2) project teams will be assembled for a single purpose; (3) more women will have executive leadership roles; (4) organizations will continue to increase their…

Toward a More Equitable Future: The Trends and Challenges Facing America's Latino Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foxen, Patricia; Mather, Mark

2016-01-01

Rapid demographic change is transforming the landscape of America in exciting and challenging ways. This report, an update of the 2010 publication "America's Future: Latino Child Well-Being in Numbers and Trends," provides a comprehensive overview of national and state-level trends in the characteristics and well-being of Hispanic…

About the Federal Energy Management Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard Kidd

2009-04-23

Richard Kidd, Program Manager for the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), presents a discussion on FEMP direction and its future role, federal funding trends, future financing trends, and Earth Day observations.

Analysis of The Planning Education in the Light of the Contemporary Trends in Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husar, Milan; Ceren Varis, Sila; Ondrejicka, Vladimir

2017-12-01

This paper examines the way the planning education is taught and examines the recent trends in the curricula of planning education institutions. The introduction of changing economic systems and planning in the field of education is discussed against these changes. Additionally, the evolution in the planner’s role and how it affects the planning education is discussed. The paper is addressing trends and challenges the countries and their planning changes are facing in 21st century. The trends such as increasing globalization, fuzziness of spatial structures and their borders, complexity and uncertainty and the growing interconnectedness of the world are discussed. Another aim is to prepare a common ground, a platform at the university level for scientific cooperation in the field of planning. This study aims at examining the situation of planning in the contemporary world. The identified challenges include the need for more flexibility in planning and planning education, the emergence of innovations and creativity in planners and planning projects, the necessity of promoting soft skills while keeping the existing technical nature of planning and lastly, the need for more interdisciplinary work. The final part of the paper is discussing the future planning education and recommendations on how the schools of planning should reflect these changes.

Teacher Education Futures: Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aubusson, Peter; Schuck, Sandy

2013-01-01

Education is facing significant political and contextual challenges that will impact its future. This study employs a Delphi methodology to investigate teacher educators' views of current trends and their consequences for teacher education futures. Interviews were conducted with a sample of expert teacher educators drawn from eight countries. This…

Deep Learning for Brain MRI Segmentation: State of the Art and Future Directions.

PubMed

Akkus, Zeynettin; Galimzianova, Alfiia; Hoogi, Assaf; Rubin, Daniel L; Erickson, Bradley J

2017-08-01

Quantitative analysis of brain MRI is routine for many neurological diseases and conditions and relies on accurate segmentation of structures of interest. Deep learning-based segmentation approaches for brain MRI are gaining interest due to their self-learning and generalization ability over large amounts of data. As the deep learning architectures are becoming more mature, they gradually outperform previous state-of-the-art classical machine learning algorithms. This review aims to provide an overview of current deep learning-based segmentation approaches for quantitative brain MRI. First we review the current deep learning architectures used for segmentation of anatomical brain structures and brain lesions. Next, the performance, speed, and properties of deep learning approaches are summarized and discussed. Finally, we provide a critical assessment of the current state and identify likely future developments and trends.

An overview of computer-based natural language processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1983-01-01

Computer based Natural Language Processing (NLP) is the key to enabling humans and their computer based creations to interact with machines in natural language (like English, Japanese, German, etc., in contrast to formal computer languages). The doors that such an achievement can open have made this a major research area in Artificial Intelligence and Computational Linguistics. Commercial natural language interfaces to computers have recently entered the market and future looks bright for other applications as well. This report reviews the basic approaches to such systems, the techniques utilized, applications, the state of the art of the technology, issues and research requirements, the major participants and finally, future trends and expectations. It is anticipated that this report will prove useful to engineering and research managers, potential users, and others who will be affected by this field as it unfolds.

Human factor implications of the Eurocopter AS332L-1 Super Puma cockpit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padfield, R. Randall

1993-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to identify and describe some of the human factor problems which can occur in the cockpit of a modern civilian helicopter. After examining specific hardware and software problems in the cockpit design of the Eurocopter (Aerospatiale) AS332L-1 Super Puma, the author proposes several principles that can be used to avoid similar human factors problems in the design of future cockpits. These principles relate to the use and function of warning lights, the design of autopilots in two-pilot aircraft, and the labeling of switches and warning lights, specifically with respect to abbreviations and translations from languages other than English. In the final section of the paper, the author describes current trends in society which he suggests should be taken into consideration when designing future aircraft cockpits.

Communication satellite payload technologies - State of the art and trends in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mica, G.; Coirault, R.

1982-09-01

Communication satellite payload technologies are examined, in terms of past, present, and future ESA guidelines. Various existing payload systems are presented, such as Marecs, ECS, and L-Sat (which will carry four payloads). Future services within the market include 2 Mb/sec high speed data, 2-8 Mb/sec video conference, and 64 Mb/sec television distribution, and growth in these areas is dependent on traffic requirements. Pre-operational satellites are outlined, for example Telecom 1 has an estimated system capacity of 150 Mb/sec, Italsat has an expected 1180 Mb/sec, and DFS demonstrates a possible 1540 Mb/sec capacity. It is found that the 20/30 GHz band should be applied for use in wideband and high capacity trunks among heavy traffic centers. To accommodate for the noise in this waveband, the parametric amplifier developed for L-Sat must be used. Finally, development objectives for future programs include improving spectrum and geostationary orbit utilization, cost-efficiency, and standardization of systems.

The future of preconception care in the United States: multigenerational impact on reproductive outcomes.

PubMed

St Fleur, Michelle; Damus, Karla; Jack, Brian

2016-07-19

The future of preconception care will require an innovative multigenerational approach to health promotion for women and men to achieve optimal reproductive health outcomes. In this paper we provide a summary of historical trends in perinatal interventions in the United States that have effectively reduced adverse perinatal outcomes but have not improved disparities among ethnic/racial groups. We describe evidence pointing to an enhanced preconception care paradigm that spans the time periods before, during, and between pregnancies and across generations for all women and men. We describe how the weathering, Barker, and life course theories point to stress and non-chromosomal inheritance as key mediators in racial disparities. Finally, we provide evidence that indicates that humans exposed to toxic stress can be impacted in future generations and that these phenomena are potentially related to epigenetic inheritance, resulting in perinatal disparities. We believe that this expanded view will define preconception care as a critical area for research in the years ahead.

Artificial intelligence and synthetic biology: A tri-temporal contribution.

PubMed

Bianchini, Francesco

2016-10-01

Artificial intelligence can make numerous contributions to synthetic biology. I would like to suggest three that are related to the past, present and future of artificial intelligence. From the past, works in biology and artificial systems by Turing and von Neumann prove highly interesting to explore within the new framework of synthetic biology, especially with regard to the notions of self-modification and self-replication and their links to emergence and the bottom-up approach. The current epistemological inquiry into emergence and research on swarm intelligence, superorganisms and biologically inspired cognitive architecture may lead to new achievements on the possibilities of synthetic biology in explaining cognitive processes. Finally, the present-day discussion on the future of artificial intelligence and the rise of superintelligence may point to some research trends for the future of synthetic biology and help to better define the boundary of notions such as "life", "cognition", "artificial" and "natural", as well as their interconnections in theoretical synthetic biology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges for the New Century: Trends That Will Influence Kentucky's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Mello, Michal; Childress, Michael T.; Watts, Amy; Watkins, John F.

Trends that will influence Kentucky's future were examined along with policy options for responding to those trends. According to the analysis, the effects of the new economy on Kentucky has been mixed. Although many Kentuckians have benefited from the new economy, the state's least educated and poorest residents are falling further behind the…

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

Alternative Scenarios of the American Future: 1980-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Robert

This report is a summary of the findings of the societal trends survey completed at the National Forum on Learning and The American Future, which focused on factors influencing the future of adult learning. The survey questionnaire and results consist of 120 societal trend statements organized into sixteen different content areas: demography;…

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

Contract Training: Progress and Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, William L.; Drisko, Ronald

1985-01-01

Provides results of a national survey of community college contract training programs, including data on the extent of the colleges' involvement, centralization/decentralization of contract training, problems and benefits, and future trends. Discusses future policy trends. (HB)

Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

Future trends in the health care economy.

PubMed

Kajander, J; Samuels, M

1996-01-01

Most articles on the future of health care are by professionals involved in the delivery of health care services. This article is unique in that trends are examined from the perspective of the public and purchasers of care. The authors focus on 12 trends that are or will be affecting the industry, and on the sometimes unintended consequences and new conflicts that may develop.

Where Theory and Law Meet: Trends in establishment clause jurisprudence in the US federal courts and implications for science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Lance E.; Southerland, Sherry A.

2013-03-01

In this study, federal court opinions and writings of legal scholars, spanning 63 years of establishment clause jurisprudence in the US federal courts were analysed in an effort to determine dominant trends in judicial philosophy that are of significance to science educators. The study's findings suggest that the dominant legal theory underpinning the adjudication of establishment clause cases on the US Supreme Court has undergone a shift from one that emphasizes separation of church and state to one that favours integration of religion in the public sphere. This development poses significant challenges to science educators who are charged with the task of teaching in accordance with state science standards that emphasize topics that are considered controversial (e.g. evolution and global climate change) by many in the faith-based community. These findings constitute a basis for forecasting future actions in US courts regarding the role of government in establishing religious practices in the public sphere-particularly where such actions intersect with the roles of teachers in the nation's public K-12 science classrooms. Finally, we argue that scientists and science educators must adopt an assertive stance in defining science in curricular frameworks, providing something for the courts to draw upon in future decisions.

Searching for 'Unknown Unknowns'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parsons, Vickie S.

2005-01-01

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was established to improve safety through engineering excellence within NASA programs and projects. As part of this goal, methods are being investigated to enable the NESC to become proactive in identifying areas that may be precursors to future problems. The goal is to find unknown indicators of future problems, not to duplicate the program-specific trending efforts. The data that is critical for detecting these indicators exist in a plethora of dissimilar non-conformance and other databases (without a common format or taxonomy). In fact, much of the data is unstructured text. However, one common database is not required if the right standards and electronic tools are employed. Electronic data mining is a particularly promising tool for this effort into unsupervised learning of common factors. This work in progress began with a systematic evaluation of available data mining software packages, based on documented decision techniques using weighted criteria. The four packages, which were perceived to have the most promise for NASA applications, are being benchmarked and evaluated by independent contractors. Preliminary recommendations for "best practices" in data mining and trending are provided. Final results and recommendations should be available in the Fall 2005. This critical first step in identifying "unknown unknowns" before they become problems is applicable to any set of engineering or programmatic data.

A trend analysis of ergonomic research themes in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Long

2015-01-01

This paper examines the development of ergonomics in Taiwan by analysing 1404 scientific articles published by 113 permanent members of the Ergonomics Society of Taiwan (EST). Each article was classified by key words and abstract content. Each article was also coded by period of publication (1971-1992 (first period), 1993-1997 (second period), 1998-2002 (third period), 2003-2007 (fourth period), and 2008-2012 (fifth period), and against 13 topic categories. The results show that rate of publication has increased by approximately 100 articles every five years since 1993.The most popular topic was ergonomics assessment and analysis techniques in the first period, force exertion-related research in the second period, product design and evaluation in the third period, occupational safety and health in the fourth period and human-computer interface in the fifth period. Each of these is highly relevant to current contemporary issues around the world. Finally, potential areas for future ergonomics research in Taiwan are discussed. This study investigates the trends in academic papers published by members of the EST. Over time, topics have shifted from ergonomics evaluation methods to occupational safety and health, and human–computer interaction. The findings should be considered as important references for planning the future of ergonomics in Taiwan.

World Trends and Alternative Futures. Open Grants Papers No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, John; Cordell, Magda

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

Future trends in society and technology: implications for wilderness research and management

Treesearch

George H. Stankey

2000-01-01

Judging the impact of social and technological trends on the future of wilderness is complex. Declining public trust, growing demands for scrutiny, a need to recognize the link between biophysical and socioeconomic systems, and the need for criteria to select among alternative futures challenge us. A burgeoning global population will increase resource impacts, but more...

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

The history, hotspots, and trends of electrocardiogram.

PubMed

Yang, Xiang-Lin; Liu, Guo-Zhen; Tong, Yun-Hai; Yan, Hong; Xu, Zhi; Chen, Qi; Liu, Xiang; Zhang, Hong-Hao; Wang, Hong-Bo; Tan, Shao-Hua

2015-07-01

The electrocardiogram (ECG) has broad applications in clinical diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular disease. Many researchers have contributed to its progressive development. To commemorate those pioneers, and to better study and promote the use of ECG, we reviewed and present here a systematic introduction about the history, hotspots, and trends of ECG. In the historical part, information including the invention, improvement, and extensive applications of ECG, such as in long QT syndrome (LQTS), angina, and myocardial infarction (MI), are chronologically presented. New technologies and applications from the 1990s are also introduced. In the second part, we use the bibliometric analysis method to analyze the hotspots in the field of ECG-related research. By using total citations and year-specific total citations as our main criteria, four key hotspots in ECG-related research were identified from 11 articles, including atrial fibrillation, LQTS, angina and MI, and heart rate variability. Recent studies in those four areas are also reported. In the final part, we discuss the future trends concerning ECG-related research. The authors believe that improvement of the ECG instrumentation, big data mining for ECG, and the accuracy of diagnosis and application will be areas of continuous concern.

The history, hotspots, and trends of electrocardiogram

PubMed Central

Yang, Xiang-Lin; Liu, Guo-Zhen; Tong, Yun-Hai; Yan, Hong; Xu, Zhi; Chen, Qi; Liu, Xiang; Zhang, Hong-Hao; Wang, Hong-Bo; Tan, Shao-Hua

2015-01-01

The electrocardiogram (ECG) has broad applications in clinical diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular disease. Many researchers have contributed to its progressive development. To commemorate those pioneers, and to better study and promote the use of ECG, we reviewed and present here a systematic introduction about the history, hotspots, and trends of ECG. In the historical part, information including the invention, improvement, and extensive applications of ECG, such as in long QT syndrome (LQTS), angina, and myocardial infarction (MI), are chronologically presented. New technologies and applications from the 1990s are also introduced. In the second part, we use the bibliometric analysis method to analyze the hotspots in the field of ECG-related research. By using total citations and year-specific total citations as our main criteria, four key hotspots in ECG-related research were identified from 11 articles, including atrial fibrillation, LQTS, angina and MI, and heart rate variability. Recent studies in those four areas are also reported. In the final part, we discuss the future trends concerning ECG-related research. The authors believe that improvement of the ECG instrumentation, big data mining for ECG, and the accuracy of diagnosis and application will be areas of continuous concern. PMID:26345622

Equatorial oceanography. [review of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.

1983-01-01

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

Phagemid vectors for phage display: properties, characteristics and construction.

PubMed

Qi, Huan; Lu, Haiqin; Qiu, Hua-Ji; Petrenko, Valery; Liu, Aihua

2012-03-30

Phagemids are filamentous-phage-derived vectors containing the replication origin of a plasmid. Phagemids usually encode no or only one kind of coat proteins. Other structural and functional proteins necessary to accomplish the life cycle of phagemid are provided by the helper phage. In addition, other elements such as molecular tags and selective markers are introduced into the phagemids to facilitate the subsequent operations, such as gene manipulation and protein purification. This review summarizes the elements of the phagemids and their corresponding functions. Finally, the possible trends and future direction to improve the characteristics of the phagemids are highlighted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical methods for human biomonitoring of pesticides. A review.

PubMed

Yusa, Vicent; Millet, Maurice; Coscolla, Clara; Roca, Marta

2015-09-03

Biomonitoring of both currently-used and banned-persistent pesticides is a very useful tool for assessing human exposure to these chemicals. In this review, we present current approaches and recent advances in the analytical methods for determining the biomarkers of exposure to pesticides in the most commonly used specimens, such as blood, urine, and breast milk, and in emerging non-invasive matrices such as hair and meconium. We critically discuss the main applications for sample treatment, and the instrumental techniques currently used to determine the most relevant pesticide biomarkers. We finally look at the future trends in this field. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does the Intel Xeon Phi processor fit HEP workloads?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, A.; Bitzes, G.; Dotti, A.; Lazzaro, A.; Jarp, S.; Szostek, P.; Valsan, L.; Botezatu, M.; Leduc, J.

2014-06-01

This paper summarizes the five years of CERN openlab's efforts focused on the Intel Xeon Phi co-processor, from the time of its inception to public release. We consider the architecture of the device vis a vis the characteristics of HEP software and identify key opportunities for HEP processing, as well as scaling limitations. We report on improvements and speedups linked to parallelization and vectorization on benchmarks involving software frameworks such as Geant4 and ROOT. Finally, we extrapolate current software and hardware trends and project them onto accelerators of the future, with the specifics of offline and online HEP processing in mind.

Application of harmonic detection technology in methane telemetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Yuehua; Fan, Weiqiang

2017-08-01

Methane telemetry plays a vital role in ensuring the safe production of coal mines and monitoring the leakage of natural gas pipelines. Harmonic detection is the key technology of methane telemetry accuracy and sensitivity, but the current telemetry distance is short, the relationship between different modulation parameters is complex, and the harmonic signal is affected by noise interference. These factors seriously affect the development of harmonic detection technology. In this paper, the principle of methane telemetry based on harmonic detection technology is introduced. The present situation and characteristics of harmonic detection technology are expounded. The problems existing in harmonic detection are analyzed. Finally, the future development trend is discussed.

Review on the progress in synthesis and application of magnetic carbon nanocomposites.

PubMed

Zhu, Maiyong; Diao, Guowang

2011-07-01

This review focuses on the synthesis and application of nanostructured composites containing magnetic nanostructures and carbon-based materials. Great progress in fabrication of magnetic carbon nanocomposites has been made by developing methods including filling process, template-based synthesis, chemical vapor deposition, hydrothermal/solvothermal method, pyrolysis procedure, sol-gel process, detonation induced reaction, self-assembly method, etc. The applications of magnetic carbon nanocomposites expanded to a wide range of fields such as environmental treatment, microwave absorption, magnetic recording media, electrochemical sensor, catalysis, separation/recognization of biomolecules and drug delivery are discussed. Finally, some future trends and perspectives in this research area are outlined.

Review on the progress in synthesis and application of magnetic carbon nanocomposites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Maiyong; Diao, Guowang

2011-07-01

This review focuses on the synthesis and application of nanostructured composites containing magnetic nanostructures and carbon-based materials. Great progress in fabrication of magnetic carbon nanocomposites has been made by developing methods including filling process, template-based synthesis, chemical vapor deposition, hydrothermal/solvothermal method, pyrolysis procedure, sol-gel process, detonation induced reaction, self-assembly method, etc. The applications of magnetic carbon nanocomposites expanded to a wide range of fields such as environmental treatment, microwave absorption, magnetic recording media, electrochemical sensor, catalysis, separation/recognization of biomolecules and drug delivery are discussed. Finally, some future trends and perspectives in this research area are outlined.

Terrrestrialization of isolated habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziejczyk, Agata; Harasymczuk, Matt; Foing, Bernard

2017-04-01

One of the most prominent issue for habitability of the solar system and beyond is to adjust a habitat for human life. Since the human life adapted to terrestrial environment during millions of years of evolution, terrestrialization of the base should be a natural trend strictly applied in habitat design. We discuss basic concerns about introducing biomimetic backup safety solutions such modularity, circularity, autonomy and plasticity into life support systems. Particularly we describe critical life processes such briefing, drinking, eating, homeostatic regulation, activity and sleep, in relation to symbiosis and competition with other species living together. Finally, we analyze ecological tolerance and transformation factors, which seem to be crucial in future habitability projects.

Active controls: A look at analytical methods and associated tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newsom, J. R.; Adams, W. M., Jr.; Mukhopadhyay, V.; Tiffany, S. H.; Abel, I.

1984-01-01

A review of analytical methods and associated tools for active controls analysis and design problems is presented. Approaches employed to develop mathematical models suitable for control system analysis and/or design are discussed. Significant efforts have been expended to develop tools to generate the models from the standpoint of control system designers' needs and develop the tools necessary to analyze and design active control systems. Representative examples of these tools are discussed. Examples where results from the methods and tools have been compared with experimental data are also presented. Finally, a perspective on future trends in analysis and design methods is presented.

The Northern Forest Futures Project: examining past, present, and future trends affecting forests in and around the central hardwood forest region

Treesearch

Stephen Shifley

2013-01-01

Th e Northern Forest Futures Project is intended to be a window on tomorrow's forests, revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the Northeast and Midwest. Th e research is focused on the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri and Minnesota—the most heavily forested and most densely populated quadrant of the...

Mathematical Models for Immunology: Current State of the Art and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Eftimie, Raluca; Gillard, Joseph J; Cantrell, Doreen A

2016-10-01

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years.

Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL

2009-10-14

The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full projectmore » period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.« less

An overview of artificial intelligence and robotics. Volume 1: Artificial intelligence. Part A: The core ingredients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1983-01-01

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging technology that has recently attracted considerable attention. Many applications are now under development. The goal of Artificial Intelligence is focused on developing computational approaches to intelligent behavior. This goal is so broad - covering virtually all aspects of human cognitive activity - that substantial confusion has arisen as to the actual nature of AI, its current status and its future capability. This volume, the first in a series of NBS/NASA reports on the subject, attempts to address these concerns. Thus, this report endeavors to clarify what AI is, the foundations on which it rests, the techniques utilized, applications, the participants and, finally, AI's state-of-the-art and future trends. It is anticipated that this report will prove useful to government and private engineering and research managers, potential users, and others who will be affected by this field as it unfolds.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

A digital future for the history of psychology?

PubMed

Green, Christopher D

2016-08-01

This article discusses the role that digital approaches to the history of psychology are likely to play in the near future. A tentative hierarchy of digital methods is proposed. A few examples are briefly described: a digital repository, a simple visualization using ready-made online database and tools, and more complex visualizations requiring the assembly of the database and, possibly, the analytic tools by the researcher. The relationship of digital history to the old "New Economic History" (Cliometrics) is considered. The question of whether digital history and traditional history need be at odds or, instead, might complement each other is woven throughout. The rapidly expanding territory of digital humanistic research outside of psychology is briefly discussed. Finally, the challenging current employment trends in history and the humanities more broadly are considered, along with the role that digital skills might play in mitigating those factors for prospective academic workers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Success in Kashmir: a positive trend in civil-military integration during humanitarian assistance operations.

PubMed

Thompson, Wiley C

2010-01-01

The modern cast of disaster relief actors includes host nations, non-governmental organisations, private volunteer organisations, military organisations and others. Each group, civilian or military, has valuable skills and experiences critical to disaster relief work. The goal of this paper is to supplement the study of civil-military relief efforts with contemporary anecdotal experience. The paper examines the interaction between US military forces and other disaster relief actors during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake relief effort. The author uses direct observations made while working in Pakistan to contrast the relationships and activities from that effort with other accounts in prevailing scholarly disaster literature and military doctrine. Finally, this paper suggests that the Kashmir model of integration, coordination and transparency of intent creates a framework in which future humanitarian assistance operations could be successfully executed. Recommendations to improve civil-military interaction in future relief efforts will also be addressed.

Industry sources of trend data - skiing

Treesearch

William F., Jr. Malcolm

1980-01-01

With precious few exceptions, ski industry trend data does not exist. This paper will enumerate sources of trend data known to the author. The paper considers the probable causes of the lack of ski industry trend data and means to ameliorate the lack of trend data. Finally, the paper presents a rationale for acquiring improved ski industry trend data.

Leading trends in environmental regulation that affect energy development. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steele, R V; Attaway, L D; Christerson, J A

1980-01-01

Major environmental issues that are likely to affect the implementation of energy technologies between now and the year 2000 are identified and assessed. The energy technologies specifically addressed are: oil recovery and processing; gas recovery and processing; coal liquefaction; coal gasification (surface); in situ coal gasification; direct coal combustion; advanced power systems; magnetohydrodynamics; surface oil shale retorting; true and modified in situ oil shale retorting; geothermal energy; biomass energy conversion; and nuclear power (fission). Environmental analyses of these technologies included, in addition to the main processing steps, the complete fuel cycle from resource extraction to end use. A comprehensive surveymore » of the environmental community (including environmental groups, researchers, and regulatory agencies) was carried out in parallel with an analysis of the technologies to identify important future environmental issues. Each of the final 20 issues selected by the project staff has the following common attributes: consensus of the environmental community that the issue is important; it is a likely candidate for future regulatory action; it deals with a major environmental aspect of energy development. The analyses of the 20 major issues address their environmental problem areas, current regulatory status, and the impact of future regulations. These analyses are followed by a quantitative assessment of the impact on energy costs and nationwide pollutant emissions of possible future regulations. This is accomplished by employing the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) for a subset of the 20 major issues. The report concludes with a more general discussion of the impact of environmental regulatory action on energy development.« less

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwyer, Roisin

2015-01-01

This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

Another 25 Years of AIED? Challenges and Opportunities for Intelligent Educational Technologies of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinkwart, Niels

2016-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of some current trends and future developments in computer science, education, and educational technology. Based on these trends, two possible future predictions of AIED are presented in the form of a utopian vision and a dystopian vision. A comparison of these two visions leads to seven challenges that AIED might…

The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

2015-01-01

The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

Land use in Maine: determinants of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Thomas Mauldlin; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private...

Motion control of multi-actuator hydraulic systems for mobile machineries: Recent advancements and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bing; Cheng, Min

2018-06-01

This paper presents a survey of recent advancements and upcoming trends in motion control technologies employed in designing multi-actuator hydraulic systems for mobile machineries. Hydraulic systems have been extensively used in mobile machineries due to their superior power density and robustness. However, motion control technologies of multi-actuator hydraulic systems have faced increasing challenges due to stringent emission regulations. In this study, an overview of the evolution of existing throttling control technologies is presented, including open-center and load sensing controls. Recent advancements in energy-saving hydraulic technologies, such as individual metering, displacement, and hybrid controls, are briefly summarized. The impact of energy-saving hydraulic technologies on dynamic performance and control solutions are also discussed. Then, the advanced operation methods of multi-actuator mobile machineries are reviewed, including coordinated and haptic controls. Finally, challenges and opportunities of advanced motion control technologies are presented by providing an overall consideration of energy efficiency, controllability, cost, reliability, and other aspects.

Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation trends in Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivajothi, R.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

Long-term samples of meteorological data are periodically necessary to assess the long standing effects of future hydrological changes. The evaluations are repeatedly undertaken using deterministic statistical analyze which requires daily weather data as input. Andhra Pradesh had experienced frequent disasters like cyclones, floods, droughts etc. The frequency and intensity of the hazardous events has been significantly increasing in there cent decades due to climatic changes and global warming. This model is being applied to all the districts of the state to evaluate the results of abnormally low rainfall and to evaluate possible adjustment polices. The final results shows that the lack of rainfall has larger influence on the living society and the major adaptation sustained by irrigation and the ecosystem which illustrates the potential of hydrological modelling for multiple dimensions of water resources. No significant trend has been detected for annual and seasonal precipitation in the entire state, some of the district’s annual and monsoon precipitation has decreased, and has increased during post monsoon and winter seasons.

Technological trends, global market, and challenges of bio-ethanol production.

PubMed

Mussatto, Solange I; Dragone, Giuliano; Guimarães, Pedro M R; Silva, João Paulo A; Carneiro, Lívia M; Roberto, Inês C; Vicente, António; Domingues, Lucília; Teixeira, José A

2010-01-01

Ethanol use as a fuel additive or directly as a fuel source has grown in popularity due to governmental regulations and in some cases economic incentives based on environmental concerns as well as a desire to reduce oil dependency. As a consequence, several countries are interested in developing their internal market for use of this biofuel. Currently, almost all bio-ethanol is produced from grain or sugarcane. However, as this kind of feedstock is essentially food, other efficient and economically viable technologies for ethanol production have been evaluated. This article reviews some current and promising technologies for ethanol production considering aspects related to the raw materials, processes, and engineered strains development. The main producer and consumer nations and future perspectives for the ethanol market are also presented. Finally, technological trends to expand this market are discussed focusing on promising strategies like the use of microalgae and continuous systems with immobilized cells. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Scoping study on trends in the economic value of electricity reliability to the U.S. economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eto, Joseph; Koomey, Jonathan; Lehman, Bryan

During the past three years, working with more than 150 organizations representing public and private stakeholders, EPRI has developed the Electricity Technology Roadmap. The Roadmap identifies several major strategic challenges that must be successfully addressed to ensure a sustainable future in which electricity continues to play an important role in economic growth. Articulation of these anticipated trends and challenges requires a detailed understanding of the role and importance of reliable electricity in different sectors of the economy. This report is intended to contribute to that understanding by analyzing key aspects of trends in the economic value of electricity reliability inmore » the U.S. economy. We first present a review of recent literature on electricity reliability costs. Next, we describe three distinct end-use approaches for tracking trends in reliability needs: (1) an analysis of the electricity-use requirements of office equipment in different commercial sectors; (2) an examination of the use of aggregate statistical indicators of industrial electricity use and economic activity to identify high reliability-requirement customer market segments; and (3) a case study of cleanrooms, which is a cross-cutting market segment known to have high reliability requirements. Finally, we present insurance industry perspectives on electricity reliability as an example of a financial tool for addressing customers' reliability needs.« less

Future Watch: Our Schools in the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Judith K.; Herer, Gilbert R.

1994-01-01

This article reviews major social, technological, economic, and political trends in the United States and relates this larger perspective to the practices of speech language pathologists and audiologists in the schools. Implications of these trends for alternative futures are drawn. (Author/DB)

Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

2001-01-01

Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

Past and Future Trends in Light Truck Sales.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-08-01

This report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II) and its associated databases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the Light Duty Truck market. The dynamic historical growth in this market and its implications for ene...

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Assessing delivery practices of mothers over time and over space in Uganda, 2003-2012.

PubMed

Sprague, Daniel A; Jeffery, Caroline; Crossland, Nadine; House, Thomas; Roberts, Gareth O; Vargas, William; Ouma, Joseph; Lwanga, Stephen K; Valadez, Joseph J

2016-01-01

It is well known that safe delivery in a health facility reduces the risks of maternal and infant mortality resulting from perinatal complications. What is less understood are the factors associated with safe delivery practices. We investigate factors influencing health facility delivery practices while adjusting for multiple other factors simultaneously, spatial heterogeneity, and trends over time. We fitted a logistic regression model to Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) data from Uganda in a framework that considered individual-level covariates, geographical features, and variations over five time points. We accounted for all two-covariate interactions and all three-covariate interactions for which two of the covariates already had a significant interaction, were able to quantify uncertainty in outputs using computationally intensive cluster bootstrap methods, and displayed outputs using a geographical information system. Finally, we investigated what information could be predicted about districts at future time-points, before the next LQAS survey is carried out. To do this, we applied the model to project a confidence interval for the district level coverage of health facility delivery at future time points, by using the lower and upper end values of known demographics to construct a confidence range for the prediction and define priority groups. We show that ease of access, maternal age and education are strongly associated with delivery in a health facility; after accounting for this, there remains a significant trend towards greater uptake over time. We use this model together with known demographics to formulate a nascent early warning system that identifies candidate districts expected to have low prevalence of facility-based delivery in the immediate future. Our results support the hypothesis that increased development, particularly related to education and access to health facilities, will act to increase facility-based deliveries, a factor associated with reducing perinatal associated mortality. We provide a statistical method for using inexpensive and routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data to answer complex epidemiology and public health questions in a resource-poor setting. We produced a model based on this data that explained the spatial distribution of facility-based delivery in Uganda. Finally, we used this model to make a prediction about the future priority of districts that was validated by monitoring and evaluation data collected in the next year.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

EPA Science Inventory

Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends

A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

An outlook for cargo aircraft of the future. [assessment of the future of air cargo by analyzing statistics and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicks, O. W.; Whitehead, A. H., Jr.; Alford, W. J., Jr.

1975-01-01

An assessment is provided of the future of air cargo by analyzing air cargo statistics and trends, by noting air cargo system problems and inefficiencies, by analyzing characteristics of air-eligible commodities, and by showing the promise of new technology for future cargo aircraft with significant improvements in costs and efficiency. NASA's proposed program is reviewed which would sponsor the research needed to provide for development of advanced designs by 1985.

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

Testing and reference model analysis of FTTH system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiancheng; Cui, Wanlong; Chen, Ying

2009-08-01

With rapid development of Internet and broadband access network, the technologies of xDSL, FTTx+LAN , WLAN have more applications, new network service emerges in endless stream, especially the increase of network game, meeting TV, video on demand, etc. FTTH supports all present and future service with enormous bandwidth, including traditional telecommunication service, traditional data service and traditional TV service, and the future digital TV and VOD. With huge bandwidth of FTTH, it wins the final solution of broadband network, becomes the final goal of development of optical access network.. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) will be the goal of telecommunications cable broadband access. In accordance with the development trend of telecommunication services, to enhance the capacity of integrated access network, to achieve triple-play (voice, data, image), based on the existing optical Fiber to the curb (FTTC), Fiber To The Zone (FTTZ), Fiber to the Building (FTTB) user optical cable network, the optical fiber can extend to the FTTH system of end-user by using EPON technology. The article first introduced the basic components of FTTH system; and then explain the reference model and reference point for testing of the FTTH system; Finally, by testing connection diagram, the testing process, expected results, primarily analyze SNI Interface Testing, PON interface testing, Ethernet performance testing, UNI interface testing, Ethernet functional testing, PON functional testing, equipment functional testing, telephone functional testing, operational support capability testing and so on testing of FTTH system. ...

Future trends in dental benefits.

PubMed

Anderson, Maxwell H

2005-05-01

Dentistry and dental payment systems as we know them today will continue to evolve. Dentistry as practiced today and the prepayment systems of dentistry are substantially different than they were fifty years ago when dental insurance as we know it was first developed. Dentistry has always changed with the development of our science and the expression of dentistry's diseases in the populations we serve. The changes that are likely to occur in the future will be focused on improving health outcomes across risk-analyzed populations with the goals of providing optimal health outcomes at reasonable costs. Dentists will increasingly become engaged in the whole health of their patients. Where sufficient correlations can be leveraged between dentistry and overall health, medical plans will play an increasing role in dentistry's future for two reasons. Given favorably altered therapeutic outcomes for medical systems that preserve scarce resources, it will be an economic imperative to engage the dental system. It will also be the right thing to do from a total health perspective. In the final analysis, this elevates the role of dentistry and empowers the dentist to participate in the total health of their patients.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Emission projections of the transport Sector in China: 2015-2040

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, L.

2016-12-01

Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government. Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government.

Formaldehyde Column Density Measurements as a Suitable Pathway to Estimate Near-Surface Ozone Tendencies from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, Jason R.; Crawford, James H.; Fried, Alan; Walega, James; Weinheimer, Andrew; Wisthaler, Armin; Mueller, Markus; Mikoviny, Tomas; Chen, Gao; Shook, Michael;

Analysis of the evolution of precipitation in the Haihe river basin of China under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiangyi; Liu, Jiahong; Gong, Jiaguo

2018-02-01

Precipitation is one of the important factors of water cycle and main sources of regional water resources. It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of precipitation under changing environment for identifying the evolution law of water resources, thus can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the formulation of related policies and measures. Generally, analysis of the evolution of precipitation consists of three levels: analysis the observed precipitation change based on measured data, explore the possible factors responsible for the precipitation change, and estimate the change trend of precipitation under changing environment. As the political and cultural centre of China, the climatic conditions in the Haihe river basin have greatly changed in recent decades. This study analyses the evolution of precipitation in the basin under changing environment based on observed meteorological data, GCMs and statistical methods. Firstly, based on the observed precipitation data during 1961-2000 at 26 meteorological stations in the basin, the actual precipitation change in the basin is analyzed. Secondly, the observed precipitation change in the basin is attributed using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and the causes of the observed precipitation change is identified. Finally, the change trend of precipitation in the basin under climate change in the future is predicted based on GCMs and a statistical downscaling model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the possible mutation time was 1965; 2) natural variability may be the factor responsible for the observed precipitation change in the basin; 3) under climate change in the future, precipitation in the basin will slightly increase by 4.8% comparing with the average, and the extremes will not vary significantly.

Topics in Chemical Instrumentation: An Introduction to Supercritical Fluid Chromatography--Part 2. Applications and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmieri, Margo D.

1989-01-01

Discussed are selected application and future trends in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The greatest application for SFC involves those analytes that are difficult to separate using GC or LC methods. Optimum conditions for SFC are examined. Provided are several example chromatograms. (MVL)

Health Policy and the Economy: Guessing about the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helms, Robert B.

1989-01-01

This paper looks at demographic and financial trends that can have an effect on the health care sector, the government reliance on projections of budget expenditures and the current budget deficit, and trends in health care expenditures and effects on the future of Social Security and Medicare. (MLW)

Financial Management of Libraries: Past Trends and Future Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Stephen A.

2003-01-01

The financial environment within library and information services is reviewed and a structure for financial management is presented based on funding source and level of commercial activity. Objectives for financial management of library and information services is developed and reviewed in light of future trends and stakeholder perspectives.…

Libraries and the Chief Information Officer: Implications and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodsworth, Anne

1988-01-01

Describes the roles and responsibilities of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) in research universities and presents five models of the position. Future trends and needs for management of converging information technologies are then discussed with attention to implications for libraries. Qualifications of the CIO and the future outlook of the…

Future Trends in the Kinesiology Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudson, Duane

2016-01-01

Kinesiology emerged from its preventative medicine and education roots to establish itself as a recognized field of inquiry with numerous sub-disciplines. This article presents four trends in modern science that will likely influence the future of kinesiology sciences. Will recent increases in greater scientific specialization be overcome by the…

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

Relative sea level trend and variability in the central Mediterranean in the time span 1872-2014 from tide gauge data: implications for future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzidei, Marco; Vecchio, Antonio

2015-04-01

We used tidal data collected in the time span 1872-2014 from a set of historical and modern stations located in the central Mediterranean, along the coasts of Italy, France, Slovenia and Croatia. The longest records span across the last two or three centuries for the tidal stations of Genova, Marseille, Trieste and Venice. While data from Bakar, Dubrovink, Rovinji and Split, all located along the coast of the Adriatic sea, provide valid records for a time span about 50 years long. In addition to these stations, since 1998 become available for the Italian region new sea level data from the dense national tidal network (www.mareografico.it). These digital stations are collecting data continuously at 10 minute sampling interval with a nominal accuracy at 1 mm. Therefore, in addition to the historical stations, we have the opportunity to analyze a sea level data set that cover about the last 16 years. In this study we show and discuss the results of our analysis of sea level data for the central Mediterranean, providing new insights on sea level trend and variability for about the past 140 years. Finally, based on sea level data and IPCC reports, we provide future sea level projections for this region for the year 2100 with implications for coastal flooding of lowland areas.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-01-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Research traditions in provider-consumer interaction: implications for cancer care.

PubMed

O'Hair, Dan

2003-05-01

The increasing importance of communication in cancer research should play a role in shaping the research agendas of those interested in investigations involving providers and consumers of cancer care. The goal of this article is to identify existing programs of research specific to provider-patient relationships and infer implications for how these research traditions can lead to important research avenues in the cancer context. Research programs reviewed in this article include (a) relational control messages and (b) patient preferences for communication style. Each section briefly reviews some noteworthy trends emanating from that research tradition and concludes with implications for future research. In the final section, two promising directions of research are proposed for consumer-provider communication.

Our plastic age.

PubMed

Thompson, Richard C; Swan, Shanna H; Moore, Charles J; vom Saal, Frederick S

2009-07-27

Within the last few decades, plastics have revolutionized our daily lives. Globally we use in excess of 260 million tonnes of plastic per annum, accounting for approximately 8 per cent of world oil production. In this Theme Issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, we describe current and future trends in usage, together with the many benefits that plastics bring to society. At the same time, we examine the environmental consequences resulting from the accumulation of waste plastic, the effects of plastic debris on wildlife and concerns for human health that arise from the production, usage and disposal of plastics. Finally, we consider some possible solutions to these problems together with the research and policy priorities necessary for their implementation.

Data Mining on Distributed Medical Databases: Recent Trends and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atilgan, Yasemin; Dogan, Firat

As computerization in healthcare services increase, the amount of available digital data is growing at an unprecedented rate and as a result healthcare organizations are much more able to store data than to extract knowledge from it. Today the major challenge is to transform these data into useful information and knowledge. It is important for healthcare organizations to use stored data to improve quality while reducing cost. This paper first investigates the data mining applications on centralized medical databases, and how they are used for diagnostic and population health, then introduces distributed databases. The integration needs and issues of distributed medical databases are described. Finally the paper focuses on data mining studies on distributed medical databases.

The System Dynamics Research on the Private Cars' Amount in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jie; Yan, Guang-Le

The thesis analyzes the development problem of private cars’ amount in Beijing from the perspective of system dynamics. With the flow chart illustrating the relationships of relevant elements, the SD model is established by VENSIM to simulate the growth trend of private autos’ amount in the future on the background of “Public Transportation First” policy based on the original data in Beijing. Then the article discusses the forecasting impacts of “Single-and-double license plate number limit” on the number of city vehicles and private cars under the assumption that this policy implemented for long after the 2008 Olympic Games. Finally, some recommendations are put forward for proper control over this problem.

Is dentistry a profession? Part 3. Future challenges.

PubMed

Welie, Jos V M

2004-11-01

In 2 earlier articles a definition of professionalism was developed, and several specific professional responsibilities were deduced. This third and final article in the series examines whether dentistry qualifies as a profession. On various levels, the professionalism of dentistry is found wanting. However, attaining the status of a profession is a work in progress, which means that each profession will always have some deficiencies. The author concludes that dentistry qualifies as a profession but that it is also exhibiting a trend toward once again becoming a business (as it was before the 19th century). For the sake of honesty with the public, dentistry must make a choice between these 2 models.

Recent research trends of radio-frequency biosensors for biomolecular detection.

PubMed

Lee, Hee-Jo; Yook, Jong-Gwan

2014-11-15

This article reviews radio-frequency (RF) biosensors based on passive and/or active devices and circuits. In particular, we focus on RF biosensors designed for detection of various biomolecules such as biotin-streptavidin, DNA hybridization, IgG, and glucose. The performance of these biosensors has been enhanced by the introduction of various sensing schemes with diverse nanomaterials (e.g., carbon nanotubes, graphene oxide, magnetic and gold nanoparticles, etc.). In addition, the RF biosensing platforms that can be associated with an RF active system are discussed. Finally, the challenges of RF biosensors are presented and suggestions are made for their future direction and prospects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Our plastic age

PubMed Central

Thompson, Richard C.; Swan, Shanna H.; Moore, Charles J.; vom Saal, Frederick S.

2009-01-01

Within the last few decades, plastics have revolutionized our daily lives. Globally we use in excess of 260 million tonnes of plastic per annum, accounting for approximately 8 per cent of world oil production. In this Theme Issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, we describe current and future trends in usage, together with the many benefits that plastics bring to society. At the same time, we examine the environmental consequences resulting from the accumulation of waste plastic, the effects of plastic debris on wildlife and concerns for human health that arise from the production, usage and disposal of plastics. Finally, we consider some possible solutions to these problems together with the research and policy priorities necessary for their implementation. PMID:19528049

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Donohue, Amy; Davis, Robert G.

The article discusses trends in classroom design and then transitions to a discussion of the future of the classroom and how the lighting industry needs to be preparing to meet the needs of the future classroom. The OSU Classroom building as an example throughout, first discussing how trends in classroom design were incorporated into the Classroom Building and then discussing how future lighting systems could enhance the Classroom Building, which is a clear departure from the actual lighting design and current technology.

Some Future Software Engineering Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, Barry

This paper provides an update and extension of a 2006 paper, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes,” Systems Engineering, Spring 2006. Some of its challenges and opportunities are similar, such as the need to simultaneously achieve high levels of both agility and assurance. Others have emerged as increasingly important, such as the challenges of dealing with ultralarge volumes of data, with multicore chips, and with software as a service. The paper is organized around eight relatively surprise-free trends and two “wild cards” whose trends and implications are harder to foresee. The eight surprise-free trends are:

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

PubMed Central

Stratton, Margaret D.; Ehrlich, Hanna Y.; Mor, Siobhan M.; Naumova, Elena N.

2017-01-01

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases. PMID:28071683

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models.

PubMed

Stratton, Margaret D; Ehrlich, Hanna Y; Mor, Siobhan M; Naumova, Elena N

2017-01-10

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50-65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stratton, Margaret D.; Ehrlich, Hanna Y.; Mor, Siobhan M.; Naumova, Elena N.

2017-01-01

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50-65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

When will on-orbit servicing be part of the space enterprise?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hastings, Daniel E.; Putbrese, Benjamin L.; La Tour, Paul A.

2016-10-01

The space industry is currently at a significant inflection point. Over the past decades, many spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit have continued a trend towards increasingly massive and longer-lasting satellites, and while they do represent some of the most exquisite, highest-performing satellites ever launched, some experts now feel that such trends are unsustainable and are beginning to place increasing strain on the underlying industry. To support current and future spacecraft, on-orbit servicing (OOS) infrastructures have been proposed, which would provide services such as repair, rescue, refueling, and upgrading of customer spacecraft in order to alleviate the identified space industry trends. In this paper, system dynamics modeling is used to assess various scenarios for OOS incorporation into the overall space industry, by evaluating its long-term effects on the design, cost, and underlying experience of a reference geosynchronous constellation. This system dynamics model is based heavily in behavioral economics' Prospect Theory, with such concepts as anchoring and loss aversion factoring heavily into the overall simulation of the space industry. The primary conclusion of this analysis was that relatively low costs and substantial incorporation of servicing capabilities into customer architectures are likely to be necessary to ensure long-term sustainability of such a project. Finally, several policy implications for an OOS infrastructure are outlined.

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

Two Views of Criminology and Criminal Justice: Definitions, Trends, and the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conrad, John P.; Myren, Richard A.

The question of whether criminology and criminal justice are distinct fields is addressed in two papers. Differences between criminology and criminal justice are delineated by emphasizing formal definitions of the field(s), occupational roles, contemporary educational trends, and future development. According to John P. Conrad, criminology is the…

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability to the heat across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Dixon, P. G.

2016-12-01

While human vulnerability to excessive heat has been well documented, relatively few studies have examined long-term trends in vulnerability to heat events. In this research, we examine temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves, defined using three different definitions of heat wave, for the largest 51 metropolitan areas of the US, over a 36-year period (1975-2010). Regardless of the definition of heat wave, an overall decline in heat vulnerability is seen over the period. While in the first years of the study, 18 to 26 metropolitan areas showed statistically significant increases in mortality on heat wave days, by the final decade of the study period, this had decreased to 6 to 7. Within this narrative, however, examining individual metropolitan areas shows greater variability within the downward trend. Several contributing factors to the variability were observed, including the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall heat wave-mortality relationship, and the frequency of heat events over a given period. These broad decreases in heat vulnerability, while encouraging, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. With society aging, there will be a greater number of highly susceptible individuals in the future; further adaptation gains are difficult in many places as air conditioning is now available in most homes in the US. Further, increased use of air conditioning has been associated with a stronger heat island; which, moving forward, is likely to occur alongside a greater number of heat events.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, S.J.; Bisland, C.

2004-01-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

PubMed

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Stargazing: Future Trends in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Jeff

2001-01-01

Describes the trends in higher education predicted and discussed at a staff retreat of the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO). Trends include an evolving role for business officers, increasing enrollment, competition, and e-learning. (EV)

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

The Present State and Future Trends of Blended Learning in Workplace Learning Settings across Five Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyong-Jee; Bonk, Curtis; Teng, Ya-Ting

2009-01-01

This article reports survey findings related to the current status and future trends of blended learning in workplace learning settings from diverse cultures. This particular survey was conducted of 674 training and human resource development professionals from five different countries, mostly from the Asia-Pacific region (i.e., China, South…

Future Directions of Management Science and Operations Management in Business School Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Jack A.; Denton, James W.

2006-01-01

The fields of Management Science (MS) and Operations Management (OM) have co-existed in business school curricula for over a half century. This paper examines five trends that point toward a bright future for Operations Management in the business curriculum. These trends include an increasing emphasis on global competition, the growth of the…

A Look at the Future from the College Union and Activities Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benedict, Joseph H., Jr.

1984-01-01

Future societal trends and implications for the college union and student activities profession are considered. Ten major trends identified by John Naisbitt in his recent book "Megatrends" are used as focal points. Attention is directed to shifts from: an industrial society to an information society; forced technology to high tech/high touch; a…

Counseling in Malaysia: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

See, Ching Mey; Ng, Kok-Mun

2010-01-01

This article presents an overview of the history of counseling in Malaysia, provides an update of its current status, and discusses some anticipated future trends for the profession in light of recent developments in the country. Counseling in Malaysia began with school guidance in the 1960s and has now achieved recognition as a profession in…

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Anticipating cascading change in forests: Seeking a deeper understanding of the future

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Mike Dockry; Stephen R. Shifley

2017-01-01

This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest,...

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sampson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

State-of-The-Art of Modeling Methodologies and Optimization Operations in Integrated Energy System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zhan; Zhang, Yongjun

2017-08-01

Rapid advances in low carbon technologies and smart energy communities are reshaping future patterns. Uncertainty in energy productions and demand sides are paving the way towards decentralization management. Current energy infrastructures could not meet with supply and consumption challenges, along with emerging environment and economic requirements. Integrated Energy System(IES) whereby electric power, natural gas, heating couples with each other demonstrates that such a significant technique would gradually become one of main comprehensive and optimal energy solutions with high flexibility, friendly renewables absorption and improving efficiency. In these global energy trends, we summarize this literature review. Firstly the accurate definition and characteristics of IES have been presented. Energy subsystem and coupling elements modeling issues are analyzed. It is pointed out that decomposed and integrated analysis methods are the key algorithms for IES optimization operations problems, followed by exploring the IES market mechanisms. Finally several future research tendencies of IES, such as dynamic modeling, peer-to-peer trading, couple market design, sare under discussion.

Reconfigurable manufacturing systems: Principles, design, and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koren, Yoram; Gu, Xi; Guo, Weihong

2018-06-01

Reconfigurable manufacturing systems (RMSs), which possess the advantages of both dedicated serial lines and flexible manufacturing systems, were introduced in the mid-1990s to address the challenges initiated by globalization. The principal goal of an RMS is to enhance the responsiveness of manufacturing systems to unforeseen changes in product demand. RMSs are costeffective because they boost productivity, and increase the lifetime of the manufacturing system. Because of the many streams in which a product may be produced on an RMS, maintaining product precision in an RMS is a challenge. But the experience with RMS in the last 20 years indicates that product quality can be definitely maintained by inserting in-line inspection stations. In this paper, we formulate the design and operational principles for RMSs, and provide a state-of-the-art review of the design and operations methodologies of RMSs according to these principles. Finally, we propose future research directions, and deliberate on how recent intelligent manufacturing technologies may advance the design and operations of RMSs.

[Land use and land cover charnge (LUCC) and landscape service: Evaluation, mapping and modeling].

PubMed

Song, Zhang-jian; Cao, Yu; Tan, Yong-zhong; Chen, Xiao-dong; Chen, Xian-peng

2015-05-01

Studies on ecosystem service from landscape scale aspect have received increasing attention from researchers all over the world. Compared with ecosystem scale, it should be more suitable to explore the influence of human activities on land use and land cover change (LUCC), and to interpret the mechanisms and processes of sustainable landscape dynamics on landscape scale. Based on comprehensive and systematic analysis of researches on landscape service, this paper firstly discussed basic concepts and classification of landscape service. Then, methods of evaluation, mapping and modeling of landscape service were analyzed and concluded. Finally, future trends for the research on landscape service were proposed. It was put forward that, exploring further connotation and classification system of landscape service, improving methods and quantitative indicators for evaluation, mapping and modelling of landscape service, carrying out long-term integrated researches on landscape pattern-process-service-scale relationships and enhancing the applications of theories and methods on landscape economics and landscape ecology are very important fields of the research on landscape service in future.

Community challenges in biomedical text mining over 10 years: success, failure and the future

PubMed Central

Huang, Chung-Chi

2016-01-01

One effective way to improve the state of the art is through competitions. Following the success of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP) in bioinformatics research, a number of challenge evaluations have been organized by the text-mining research community to assess and advance natural language processing (NLP) research for biomedicine. In this article, we review the different community challenge evaluations held from 2002 to 2014 and their respective tasks. Furthermore, we examine these challenge tasks through their targeted problems in NLP research and biomedical applications, respectively. Next, we describe the general workflow of organizing a Biomedical NLP (BioNLP) challenge and involved stakeholders (task organizers, task data producers, task participants and end users). Finally, we summarize the impact and contributions by taking into account different BioNLP challenges as a whole, followed by a discussion of their limitations and difficulties. We conclude with future trends in BioNLP challenge evaluations. PMID:25935162

Rational material design for ultrafast rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.

PubMed

Tang, Yuxin; Zhang, Yanyan; Li, Wenlong; Ma, Bing; Chen, Xiaodong

2015-10-07

Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are important electrochemical energy storage devices for consumer electronics and emerging electrical/hybrid vehicles. However, one of the formidable challenges is to develop ultrafast charging LIBs with the rate capability at least one order of magnitude (>10 C) higher than that of the currently commercialized LIBs. This tutorial review presents the state-of-the-art developments in ultrafast charging LIBs by the rational design of materials. First of all, fundamental electrochemistry and related ionic/electronic conduction theories identify that the rate capability of LIBs is kinetically limited by the sluggish solid-state diffusion process in electrode materials. Then, several aspects of the intrinsic materials, materials engineering and processing, and electrode materials architecture design towards maximizing both ionic and electronic conductivity in the electrode with a short diffusion length are deliberated. Finally, the future trends and perspectives for the ultrafast rechargeable LIBs are discussed. Continuous rapid progress in this area is essential and urgent to endow LIBs with ultrafast charging capability to meet huge demands in the near future.

Mechanical model development of rolling bearing-rotor systems: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hongrui; Niu, Linkai; Xi, Songtao; Chen, Xuefeng

2018-03-01

The rolling bearing rotor (RBR) system is the kernel of many rotating machines, which affects the performance of the whole machine. Over the past decades, extensive research work has been carried out to investigate the dynamic behavior of RBR systems. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, no comprehensive review on RBR modelling has been reported yet. To address this gap in the literature, this paper reviews and critically discusses the current progress of mechanical model development of RBR systems, and identifies future trends for research. Firstly, five kinds of rolling bearing models, i.e., the lumped-parameter model, the quasi-static model, the quasi-dynamic model, the dynamic model, and the finite element (FE) model are summarized. Then, the coupled modelling between bearing models and various rotor models including De Laval/Jeffcott rotor, rigid rotor, transfer matrix method (TMM) models and FE models are presented. Finally, the paper discusses the key challenges of previous works and provides new insights into understanding of RBR systems for their advanced future engineering applications.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Evaluation of skid inventory data for development of trends : pilot study : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-12-01

This study examined historical data of the skid resistance inventory in Louisiana from 1974 through 1981 to determine trends. The data showed that no trend exists when using number of vehicle passes versus skid number difference on any surface presen...

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

What Tomorrow May Bring: Trends in Technology and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molebash, Philip E.

This paper analyzes trends in technology and how they relate to education and then extrapolates these trends in order to predict the future of technology and education. The paper examines how the trends of Moore's Law, the graphical user interface, telecommunications/networks and Metcalfe's Law, the Internet and the World Wide Web, technology…

Forecasting Social Trends as a Basis for Formulating Educational Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Arthur J.

The paper describes how information regarding future trends is collected and made available to educational policy makers. Focusing on educational implications of social and population trends, the paper is based on data derived from use of trend forecasting by educational policy makers in Florida and other southeastern states. The document is…

Effects of climate change on hydrology and hydraulics of Qu River Basin, East China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Pan, S.; Xu, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events have attracted much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The outputs of four GCMs BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2021-2050 are chosen to represent future climate change projections. The LARS-WG statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the coarse GCM outputs and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2021-2050. Finally the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River, Jiangshangang River and Qu River at most cases, especially for small return periods(≤20), and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken.

FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

2017-01-01

In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented. PMID:28245551

NASA's Space Environments and Effects Program: Technology for the New Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardage, Donna M.; Pearson, Steven D.

2000-01-01

Current trends in spacecraft development include the use of advanced technologies while maintaining the "faster, better, cheaper" philosophy. Spacecraft designers are continually designing with smaller and faster electronics as well as lighter and thinner materials providing better performance, lower weight, and ultimately lower costs. Given this technology trend, spacecraft will become increasingly susceptible to the harsh space environments, causing damaging or even disabling effects on space systems. NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program defines the space environments and provides advanced technology development to support the design, development, and operation of spacecraft systems that will accommodate or mitigate effects due to the harsh space environments. This Program provides a comprehensive and focused approach to understanding the space environment, to define the best techniques for both flight and ground-based experimentation, to update the models which predict both the environments and the environmental effects on spacecraft, and finally to ensure that this multitudinous information is properly maintained and inserted into spacecraft design programs. A description of the SEE Program, its accomplishments, and future activities is provided.

Electric Vehicles in Colorado: Anticipating Consumer Demand for Direct Current Fast Charging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Eric W.; Rames, Clement L.

To support the State of Colorado in planning for growth in direct current fast charging (DCFC) for electric vehicles, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has partnered with the Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC) and the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) to analyze a number of DCFC investment scenarios. NREL analyzed existing electric vehicle registration data from IHS Markit (IHS) to highlight early trends in the electric vehicle market, which were compared with sales forecasts predicting large growth in the Colorado electric vehicle market. Electric vehicle forecasts were then used to develop future DCFC scenarios to be evaluated in amore » simulation environment to estimate consumer benefits of the hypothetical DCFC networks in terms of increased driving range and electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT). Simulated utilization of the hypothetical DCFC networks was analyzed for geographic trends, particularly for correlations with vehicle electric range. Finally, a subset of simulations is presented for consumers with potentially inconsistent access to charging at their home location and presumably greater reliance on public DCFC infrastructure.« less

FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

PubMed

Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

2017-02-24

In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature and Implications for Research and Policy

PubMed Central

Levy, David T.; Mabry, Patricia L.; Wang, Y. Claire; Gortmaker, Steve; Huang, Terry T-K; Marsh, Tim; Moodie, Marj; Swinburn, Boyd

2015-01-01

Simulation models (SMs) combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. SMs can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. As emphasized in a recently released report of the Institute or Medicine, SMs can be especially useful for considering the potential impact of an array of policies that will be required to tackle the obesity problem. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing SMs for obesity. First, a background section introduces the different types of models, explains how models are constructed, shows the utility of SMs, and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Using these typologies, we then briefly review extant obesity SMs. We categorize these models according to their focus: health and economic outcomes, trends in obesity as a function of past trends, physiologically-based behavioral models, environmental contributors to obesity, and policy interventions. Finally, we suggest directions for future research. PMID:20973910

Academic Medicine and Medical Professionalism: A Legacy and a Portal Into An Evolving Field of Educational Scholarship.

PubMed

Hafferty, Frederic W

2017-09-05

In this Invited Commentary, the author examines two curated Academic Medicine volumes showcasing foundational research and key writings on professionalism in medicine and medical education, collectively spanning from 1994 to 2016. The author reviews the beginnings of the medical professionalism movement and examines how the trends and themes reflected in the first volume-specifically the work to define, assess, and institutionalize professionalism-capture key elements in this movement. He then examines how the trends and themes in the second volume align with and build on those from the first, noting two themes that extend across a number of second volume articles: a unit-of-analysis issue and the challenge of context. The author identifies several topics that have yet to be adequately mined and calls attention to two bridge-spanning articles in the second volume that, respectively, take us into the future (around the topic of identify formation) and back to the past (on the hidden curriculum). Finally, the author reflects on "directions home" in medicine's noble search for its moral core and collective identity.

Brain Tumor Image Segmentation in MRI Image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peni Agustin Tjahyaningtijas, Hapsari

2018-04-01

Brain tumor segmentation plays an important role in medical image processing. Treatment of patients with brain tumors is highly dependent on early detection of these tumors. Early detection of brain tumors will improve the patient’s life chances. Diagnosis of brain tumors by experts usually use a manual segmentation that is difficult and time consuming because of the necessary automatic segmentation. Nowadays automatic segmentation is very populer and can be a solution to the problem of tumor brain segmentation with better performance. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of MRI-based brain tumor segmentation methods. There are number of existing review papers, focusing on traditional methods for MRI-based brain tumor image segmentation. this paper, we focus on the recent trend of automatic segmentation in this field. First, an introduction to brain tumors and methods for brain tumor segmentation is given. Then, the state-of-the-art algorithms with a focus on recent trend of full automatic segmentaion are discussed. Finally, an assessment of the current state is presented and future developments to standardize MRI-based brain tumor segmentation methods into daily clinical routine are addressed.

Undergraduate psychiatry students' attitudes towards teaching methods at an Irish university.

PubMed

Jabbar, F; Casey, P; Kelly, B D

2016-11-01

At University College Dublin, teaching in psychiatry includes clinical electives, lectures, small-group and problem-based teaching, consistent with international trends. To determine final-year psychiatry students' attitudes towards teaching methods. We distributed questionnaires to all final-year medical students in two classes (2008 and 2009), after final psychiatry examination (before results) and all of them participated (n = 111). Students' interest in psychiatry as a career increased during psychiatry teaching. Students rated objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) as the most useful element of teaching and examination. The most common learning style was "reflector"; the least common was "pragmatist". Two thirds believed teaching could be improved (increased patient contact) and 89 % reported that experience of psychiatry changed attitudes towards mental illness (increased understanding). Students' preference for OSCEs may reflect the closeness of OSCE as a form of learning to OSCE as a form of assessment: OSCEs both focus on specific clinical skills and help prepare for examinations. Future research could usefully examine the extent to which these findings are university-specific or instructor-dependent. Information on the consistency of various teaching, examination and modularisation methods would also be useful.

Software Classifications: Trends in Literacy Software Publication and Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balajthy, Ernest

First in a continuing series of reports on trends in marketing and publication of software for literacy education, a study explored the development of a database to track the trends and reported on trends seen in 1995. The final version of the 1995 database consisted of 1011 software titles, 165 of which had been published in 1995 and 846…

The Future of School Library Media Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craver, Kathleen W.

1984-01-01

Examines impact of technology on school library media program development and role of school librarian. Technological trends (computerized record keeping, computer-assisted instruction, networking, home computers, videodiscs), employment and economic trends, education of school librarians, social and behavioral trends, and organizational and…

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Research advances in polymer emulsion based on "core-shell" structure particle design.

PubMed

Ma, Jian-zhong; Liu, Yi-hong; Bao, Yan; Liu, Jun-li; Zhang, Jing

2013-09-01

In recent years, quite many studies on polymer emulsions with unique core-shell structure have emerged at the frontier between material chemistry and many other fields because of their singular morphology, properties and wide range of potential applications. Organic substance as a coating material onto either inorganic or organic internal core materials promises an unparalleled opportunity for enhancement of final functions through rational designs. This contribution provides a brief overview of recent progress in the synthesis, characterization, and applications of both inorganic-organic and organic-organic polymer emulsions with core-shell structure. In addition, future research trends in polymer composites with core-shell structure are also discussed in this review. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Market Opportunities for Chinese Private Express Delivery Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Changbing; Bai, Lijun; Tong, Xiaoqing

China's express delivery market has become the arena in which each express enterprise struggles to chase due to the huge potential demand and high profitable prospects. So certain qualitative and quantitative forecast for the future changes of China's express delivery market will help enterprises understand various types of market conditions and social changes in demand and adjust business activities to enhance their competitiveness timely. The development of China's express delivery industry is first introduced in this chapter. Then the theoretical basis of the regression model is overviewed. We also predict the demand trends of China's express delivery market by using Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis from qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. Finally, we draw some conclusions and recommendations for China's express delivery industry.

Advances in the high performance polymer electrolyte membranes for fuel cells.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongwei; Shen, Pei Kang

2012-03-21

This critical review tersely and concisely reviews the recent development of the polymer electrolyte membranes and the relationship between their properties and affecting factors like operation temperature. In the first section, the advantages and shortcomings of the corresponding polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells are analyzed. Then, the limitations of Nafion membranes and their alternatives to large-scale commercial applications are discussed. Secondly, the concepts and approaches of the alternative proton exchange membranes for low temperature and high temperature fuel cells are described. The highlights of the current scientific achievements are given for various aspects of approaches. Thirdly, the progress of anion exchange membranes is presented. Finally, the perspectives of future trends on polymer electrolyte membranes for different applications are commented on (400 references).

Bio-inspired polarized skylight navigation: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xi; Wan, Yongqin; Li, Lijing

2015-12-01

The idea of using skylight polarization in navigation is learned from animals such as desert ants and honeybees. Various research groups have been working on the development of novel navigation systems inspired by polarized skylight. The research of background in polarized skylight navigation is introduced, and basic principle of the insects navigation is expatiated. Then, the research progress status at home and abroad in skylight polarization pattern, three bio-inspired polarized skylight navigation sensors and polarized skylight navigation are reviewed. Finally, the research focuses in the field of polarized skylight navigation are analyzed. At the same time, the trend of development and prospect in the future are predicted. It is believed that the review is helpful to people understand polarized skylight navigation and polarized skylight navigation sensors.

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Ip, Hon S.

2015-01-01

The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Review of real brain-controlled wheelchairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Rodríguez, Á.; Velasco-Álvarez, F.; Ron-Angevin, R.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a review of the state of the art regarding wheelchairs driven by a brain-computer interface. Using a brain-controlled wheelchair (BCW), disabled users could handle a wheelchair through their brain activity, granting autonomy to move through an experimental environment. A classification is established, based on the characteristics of the BCW, such as the type of electroencephalographic signal used, the navigation system employed by the wheelchair, the task for the participants, or the metrics used to evaluate the performance. Furthermore, these factors are compared according to the type of signal used, in order to clarify the differences among them. Finally, the trend of current research in this field is discussed, as well as the challenges that should be solved in the future.

Preliminary Design of a Manned Nuclear Electric Propulsion Vehicle Using Genetic Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irwin, Ryan W.; Tinker, Michael L.

2005-01-01

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicles will be needed for future manned missions to Mars and beyond. Candidate designs must be identified for further detailed design from a large array of possibilities. Genetic algorithms have proven their utility in conceptual design studies by effectively searching a large design space to pinpoint unique optimal designs. This research combined analysis codes for NEP subsystems with a genetic algorithm. The use of penalty functions with scaling ratios was investigated to increase computational efficiency. Also, the selection of design variables for optimization was considered to reduce computation time without losing beneficial design search space. Finally, trend analysis of a reference mission to the asteroids yielded a group of candidate designs for further analysis.

The Skills and Training Needed by Farm Management Researchers in the Future: Discussion. Economics Staff Paper 93-4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Douglas R.

In view of continuing trends in farming and the trend toward increasing farm diversification and specialization, the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges and individual researchers have proposed their own lists of the skills that will be needed by farm management researchers in the future. Because farm management…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This booklet presents an overview of the findings pertaining to eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade students from the 1999 Monitoring the Future Study. This overview focuses on recent trends in the use of various licit and illicit drugs. It also examines trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug, which…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2006. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 67

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2007-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2006: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2007. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 69

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2008-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2007: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2000. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 53.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2000: Volume 1: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender,…

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-01-01

Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than I% in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10%.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than 1 % in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10 %.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Policy trends of extended producer responsibility in Malaysia.

PubMed

Agamuthu, P; Victor, Dennis

2011-09-01

This paper seeks to examine the provisions for extended producer responsibility (EPR) within the Malaysian environmental and waste management policies and to determine its existing practice and future prospects in Malaysia. Malaysian waste generation has been increasing drastically where solid waste generation was estimated to increase from about 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to about 10.9 million tonnes in 2010, to about 12.8 million tonnes in 2015 and finally to about 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. Malaysian e-waste was estimated to be about 652 909 tonnes in 2006 and was estimated to increase to about 706 000 tonnes in 2010 and finally to about 1.2 million tonnes in 2020. The projected increasing generation of both solid waste and scheduled wastes is expected to burden the country's resources and environment in managing these wastes in a sustainable manner. The concept of EPR is provided for in the Malaysia waste management system via the Environmental Quality Act 1974 and the Solid Waste and Public Cleansing Management Act 2007. However, these provisions in the policy are generic in nature without relevant regulations to enable its enforcement and as such the concept of EPR still remains on paper whereas the existing practice of EPR in Malaysia is limited through voluntary participation. In conclusion, policy trends of EPR in Malaysia seem to indicate that Malaysia may be embarking on the path towards EPR through the enactment of an EPR regulation.

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search.

PubMed

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M; Watts, Duncan J

2010-10-12

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can "predict the present," meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future.

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search

PubMed Central

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M.; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M.; Watts, Duncan J.

2010-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can “predict the present,” meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future. PMID:20876140

Battery‐Supercapacitor Hybrid Devices: Recent Progress and Future Prospects

PubMed Central

Zuo, Wenhua; Li, Ruizhi; Zhou, Cheng; Xia, Jianlong

2017-01-01

Design and fabrication of electrochemical energy storage systems with both high energy and power densities as well as long cycling life is of great importance. As one of these systems, Battery‐supercapacitor hybrid device (BSH) is typically constructed with a high‐capacity battery‐type electrode and a high‐rate capacitive electrode, which has attracted enormous attention due to its potential applications in future electric vehicles, smart electric grids, and even miniaturized electronic/optoelectronic devices, etc. With proper design, BSH will provide unique advantages such as high performance, cheapness, safety, and environmental friendliness. This review first addresses the fundamental scientific principle, structure, and possible classification of BSHs, and then reviews the recent advances on various existing and emerging BSHs such as Li‐/Na‐ion BSHs, acidic/alkaline BSHs, BSH with redox electrolytes, and BSH with pseudocapacitive electrode, with the focus on materials and electrochemical performances. Furthermore, recent progresses in BSH devices with specific functionalities of flexibility and transparency, etc. will be highlighted. Finally, the future developing trends and directions as well as the challenges will also be discussed; especially, two conceptual BSHs with aqueous high voltage window and integrated 3D electrode/electrolyte architecture will be proposed. PMID:28725528

An Environmental Analysis: Issues and Trends for Planning and Assessment. Institutional Research Report No. 90-21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Christina E.; Prather, James E.

This report revises and updates environmental trends that affect present and future planning and assessment at Georgia State University (GSU). The purpose of this environmental analysis is to determine the major trends in the environment, the implications of these trends for higher education and for the institution, and significant opportunities…

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

PubMed Central

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K.; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J.

2015-01-01

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies. PMID:25902499

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078–2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K−1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day. PMID:24116022

Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation.

PubMed

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J

2015-05-05

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Held, Isaac; V. Balaji; Fueglistaler, Stephan

We have constructed and analyzed a series of idealized models of tropical convection interacting with large-scale circulations, with 25-50km resolution and with 1-2km cloud resolving resolution to set the stage for rigorous tests of convection closure schemes in high resolution global climate models. Much of the focus has been on the climatology of tropical cyclogenesis in rotating systems and the related problem of the spontaneous aggregation of convection in non-rotating systems. The PI (Held) will be delivering the honorary Bjerknes lecture at the Fall 2016 AGU meeting in December on this work. We have also provided new analyses of long-standingmore » issues related to the interaction between convection and the large-scale circulation: Kelvin waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, water vapor transport into the stratosphere, and upper tropospheric temperature trends. The results of these analyses help to improve our understanding of processes, and provide tests for future high resolution global modeling. Our final goal of testing new convections schemes in next-generation global atmospheric models at GFDL has been left for future work due to the complexity of the idealized model results meant as tests for these models uncovered in this work and to computational resource limitations. 11 papers have been published with support from this grant, 2 are in review, and another major summary paper is in preparation.« less

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Status of Postdoctoral Dental Education: Clinical Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Richard G.; And Others

1995-01-01

An analysis of the state of postdoctoral clinical dental training looks at current enrollment level and trends, trends in faculty positions and demand for them, student characteristics, student objectives in pursuing postdoctoral education, trends in specialty and general practice, and implications for future postdoctoral general dentistry…

Helicopter aeroelastic stability and response - Current topics and future trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, Peretz P.

1990-01-01

This paper presents several current topics in rotary wing aeroelasticity and concludes by attempting to anticipate future trends and developments. These topics are: (1) the role of geometric nonlinearities; (2) structural modeling, and aeroelastic analysis of composite rotor blades; (3) aeroelastic stability and response in forward flight; (4) modeling of coupled rotor/fuselage aeromechanical problems and their active control; and (5) the coupled rotor-fuselage vibration problem and its alleviation by higher harmonic control. Selected results illustrating the fundamental aspects of these topics are presented. Future developments are briefly discussed.

COMPANION ANIMALS SYMPOSIUM: Future aspects and perceptions of companion animal nutrition and sustainability.

PubMed

Deng, P; Swanson, K S

2015-03-01

Companion animals play an important role in our lives and are now considered to be and treated as family members in a majority of households in the United States. Because of the high number of pets that now exist, an increasingly stronger pet-human bond, and the importance placed on health and longevity, the pet food industry has realized steady growth over the last few decades. Despite past successes and opportunities that exist in the future, there are also challenges that must be considered. This review will present a brief overview of the current pet food industry and address some of the key issues moving forward. In regards to companion animal research, recent advances and future needs in the areas of canine and feline metabolism, aging, clinical disease, and the gut microbiome using molecular and high-throughput assays; chemical, in vitro, and in vivo testing of feed ingredients; and innovative pet food processing methods is discussed. Training the future workforce for the pet food industry is also of great importance. Recent trends on student demographics and their species and careers of interest, changing animal science department curricula, and technology's impact on instruction are provided. Finally, the sustainability of the pet food industry is discussed. Focus was primarily placed on the disconnect that exists between opinions and trends of consumers and the nutrient recommendations for dogs and cats, the desire for increasing use of animal-based and human-grade products, the overfeeding of pets and the pet obesity crisis, and the issues that involve the evaluation of primary vs. secondary products in terms of sustainability. Moving forward, the pet food industry will need to anticipate and address challenges that arise, especially those pertaining to consumer expectations, the regulatory environment, and sustainability. Given the already strong and increasingly dynamic market for pet foods and supplies, an academic environment primed to supply a skilled workforce, and continued industry support for basic and applied research initiatives, the future of the pet food industry looks very bright.

Determining the Current and Future Health of Low-Latitude Andean Glaciers Using an Equilibrium Line Altitude Model and Hypsometric Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2015-12-01

Mountain glaciers have been described as the water towers of world, and for many populations in the low-latitude South American Andes, glacial runoff is vital for agricultural, industrial, and basic water needs. Previous studies of low-latitude Andean glaciers suggest a precarious future due to contemporary warming. These studies have looked at trends in freezing level heights or observations of contemporary retreat. However, regional-scale understanding of low-latitude glacial responses to present and future climate change is limited, in part due to incomplete information about the extent and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers. The recently published Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) (5.0) provides the necessary information about the size and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers to begin such studies. We determine the contemporary equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for low-latitude Andean glaciers in the RGI, using a numerical energy balance ablation model driven with reanalysis and gridded data products. Contemporary ELAs tend to fall around the peak of the elevation histogram, with an exception being the southern-most outer tropical glaciers whose modeled ELAs tend to be higher than the elevation histogram for that region (see below figure). Also, we use the linear tends in temperature and precipitation from the contemporary climatology to extrapolate 21stcentury climate forcings. Modeled ELAs by the middle on the century are universally predicted to rise, with outer tropical ELAs rising more than the inner tropical glaciers. These trends continue through the end of the century. Finally, we explore how climate variables and parameters in our numerical model may vary for different warming scenarios from United Nation's IPCC AR5 report. We quantify the impacts of these changes on ELAs for various climate change trajectories. These results support previous work on the precarious future of low latitude Andean glaciers, while providing a richer understanding of the glacial impacts of contemporary and future warming. Also, this work provides analysis of processes and feedbacks between different climate variables important to glacier mass balances in a warming world, improving predictions for the fate of low-latitude Andean glaciers.

Assessing wave climate trends in the Bay of Biscay through an intercomparison of wave hindcasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, F.; Lecacheux, S.; Idier, D.; Charles, E.

2014-09-01

The Bay of Biscay, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to energetic waves coming from the open ocean that have crucial effects on the coast. Knowledge of the wave climate and trends in this region are critical to better understand the last decade's evolution of coastal hazards and morphology and to anticipate their potential future changes. This study aims to characterize the long-term trends of the present wave climate over the second half of the twentieth century in the Bay of Biscay through a robust and homogeneous intercomparison of five-wave datasets (Corrected ERA-40 (C-ERA-40), ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), Bay Of Biscay Wave Atlas (BOBWA-10kH), ANEMOC, and Bertin and Dodet 2010)). The comparison of the quality of the datasets against offshore and nearshore measurements reveals that at offshore locations, global reanalyses slightly underestimate wave heights, while regional hindcasts overestimate wave heights, especially for the highest quantiles. At coastal locations, BOBWA-10kH is the dataset that compares the best with observations. Concerning long time-scale features, the comparison highlights that the main significant trends are similarly present in the five datasets, especially during summer for which there is an increase of significant wave heights and mean wave periods (up to +15 cm and +0.6 s over the period 1970-2001) as well as a southerly shift of wave directions (around -0.4° year-1). Over the same period, an increase of high quantiles of wave heights during the autumn season (around 3 cm year-1 for 90th quantile of significant wave heights (SWH90)) is also apparent. During winter, significant trends are much lower than during summer and autumn despite a slight increase of wave heights and periods during 1958-2001. These trends can be related to modifications in the wave-type occurrence. Finally, the trends common to the five datasets are discussed by analyzing the similarities with centennial trends issued from longer time-scale studies and exploring the various factors that could explain them.

Current status and future trends in turbine application of thermal barrier coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffler, Keith D.; Gupta, Dinesh K.

1988-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the current status and future trends in application of thermal barrier coatings (TBC) to turbine components, and in particular to high turbine airfoils. Included are descriptions of the favorable results achieved to date with bill-of-material applications of plasma deposited TBC, and recent experience with developmental coatings applied by electron beam-physical vapor deposition.

Critical Trends and Events Affecting the Future of Community Colleges: Proceedings of a Beyond 2000 Preconference Workshop (Orlando, Florida, February 26-28, 1995).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

The Beyond 2000 workshop held in February 1995 was designed to give participants experience in using strategic management techniques, such as critical trend and potential event identification, to examine the future of community colleges. This paper is intended as a guide for implementing similar workshops and summarizes the outcomes of workshop…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2001 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings, 2002.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor. Inst. for Social Research.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2002 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Survey of the State-of-the-Art and Likely Future Trends of University Management in Europe: Austria-Germany-the Netherlands.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bender, Ignaz; Henning, Wolfgang

The management of universities in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands was studied as part of a 1979 survey of the present and future trends of university management in Europe. The survey addressed the organization of the university and its administration, the structure and process of decision-making, and the opinions of students, teachers, and…

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Theory of Partitioning of Disease Prevalence and Mortality in Observational Data

PubMed Central

Akushevich, I.; Yashkin, A.; Kravchenko, J.; Fang, F.; Arbeev, K.; Sloan, F.; Yashin, AI

2017-01-01

In this study, we present a new theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and incidence-based mortality and demonstrate how this theory practically works for analyses of Medicare data. In the theory, the prevalence of a disease and incidence-based mortality are modeled in terms of disease incidence and survival after diagnosis supplemented by information on disease prevalence at the initial age and year available in a dataset. Partitioning of the trends of prevalence and mortality is calculated with minimal assumptions. The resulting expressions for the components of the trends are given by continuous functions of data. The estimator is consistent and stable. The developed methodology is applied for data on type 2 diabetes using individual records from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries age 65+. Numerical estimates show excellent concordance between empirical estimates and theoretical predictions. Evaluated partitioning model showed that both prevalence and mortality increase with time. The primary driving factors of the observed prevalence increase are improved survival and increased prevalence at age 65. The increase in diabetes-related mortality is driven by increased prevalence and unobserved trends in time-periods and age-groups outside of the range of the data used in the study. Finally, the properties of the new estimator, possible statistical and systematical uncertainties, and future practical applications of this methodology in epidemiology, demography, public health and health forecasting are discussed. PMID:28130147

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

The SAGE II/OSIRIS/OMPS-LP USask 2D Deseasonalized Anomaly Ozone Data Record for Use in Trend Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degenstein, D. A.; Bourassa, A. E.; Zawada, D.; Roth, C.; McLinden, C. A.

2017-12-01

The SAGE II/OSIRIS/OMPS-LP USask 2D ozone deseasonalized anomaly data record spans over three decades, from 1984 to the present, and has been used extensively for the determination of stratospheric ozone trends in the post Montreal Protocol era. Radiance measurements made by the three instruments have all been used to produce ozone data profiles whose native units are number density as a function of altitude. Therefore, during the merging process required to produce the extended data record it is not necessary to use meteorological data for unit conversion and all trends contained within the data record come directly from the data products themselves. Although the SAGE II occultation data record ended in 2005, both the OMPS-LP and OSIRIS limb scattered sunlight data records continue. OSIRIS has been in operation since 2001 and is well beyond its lifetime but OMPS-LP is scheduled for launch on future spacecraft so the data record should continue for many years, or even decades. It is also anticipated that SAGE III ISS data will be added to the existing record to further enhance its utility for trend analysis. This paper will outline the process used to produce the deseasonalized ozone anomaly data record detailing the issues associated with merging data records that have different biases and sampling characteristics. Issues associated with SAGE II and OSIRIS measurements that are made at different local times will also be discussed. Finally, this paper will present trend results produced using variations of the official LOTUS analysis code. These results cover an altitude range from the tropopause to 55 km and from 60 South to 60 North in ten-degree bins. It will be shown that the new OMPS-LP USask 2D data record is of excellent quality and can be used to extend the ozone data records for the purpose of trend analysis.

Advanced electronic displays and their potential in future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, J. J.

1981-01-01

It is pointed out that electronic displays represent one of the keys to continued integration and improvement of the effectiveness of avionic systems in future transport aircraft. An employment of modern electronic display media and generation has become vital in connection with the increases in modes and functions of modern aircraft. Requirements for electronic systems of future transports are examined, and a description is provided of the tools which are available for cockpit integration, taking into account trends in information processing and presentation, trends in integrated display devices, and trends concerning input/output devices. Developments related to display media, display generation, and I/O devices are considered, giving attention to a comparison of CRT and flat-panel display technology, advanced HUD technology and multifunction controls. Integrated display formats are discussed along with integrated systems and cockpit configurations.

Multi-Intelligence Analytics for Next Generation Analysts (MIAGA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasch, Erik; Waltz, Ed

2016-05-01

Current analysts are inundated with large volumes of data from which extraction, exploitation, and indexing are required. A future need for next-generation analysts is an appropriate balance between machine analytics from raw data and the ability of the user to interact with information through automation. Many quantitative intelligence tools and techniques have been developed which are examined towards matching analyst opportunities with recent technical trends such as big data, access to information, and visualization. The concepts and techniques summarized are derived from discussions with real analysts, documented trends of technical developments, and methods to engage future analysts with multiintelligence services. For example, qualitative techniques should be matched against physical, cognitive, and contextual quantitative analytics for intelligence reporting. Future trends include enabling knowledge search, collaborative situational sharing, and agile support for empirical decision-making and analytical reasoning.

Demographic Trends that will Shape Future Housing Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Peter A.

1977-01-01

Important demographic trends in the United States include 1) the population's changing age profile, 2) the tendency for young people to remain single longer, 3) the widening mortality differential between the sexes, and 4) reversal of migration trends. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

2013-01-01

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran.

PubMed

Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Marioryad, Hossein

2015-10-01

Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead.

Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran

PubMed Central

Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2015-01-01

Background Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. Aim This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. Materials and Methods First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Results Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Conclusion Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead. PMID:26557547

Past and future drought in Mongolia.

PubMed

Hessl, Amy E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-03-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

Past and future drought in Mongolia

PubMed Central

Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-01-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming. PMID:29546236

Black Residential Mobility; Trends and Characteristics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fairchild, Halford H.; Tucker, M. Belinda

1982-01-01

Uses a multidisciplinary approach to examine trends in Black residential mobility from slavery to the present. Focuses particularly on evolution of urban ghettos and considers present and future public policy issues. (GC)

Recent progress on magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles: synthesis, surface functional strategies and biomedical applications

PubMed Central

Wu, Wei; Wu, Zhaohui; Yu, Taekyung; Jiang, Changzhong; Kim, Woo-Sik

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the recent development and various strategies in the preparation, microstructure, and magnetic properties of bare and surface functionalized iron oxide nanoparticles (IONPs); their corresponding biological application was also discussed. In order to implement the practical in vivo or in vitro applications, the IONPs must have combined properties of high magnetic saturation, stability, biocompatibility, and interactive functions at the surface. Moreover, the surface of IONPs could be modified by organic materials or inorganic materials, such as polymers, biomolecules, silica, metals, etc. The new functionalized strategies, problems and major challenges, along with the current directions for the synthesis, surface functionalization and bioapplication of IONPs, are considered. Finally, some future trends and the prospects in these research areas are also discussed. PMID:27877761

Trends affecting the future of vaccine development and delivery: The role of demographics, regulatory science, the anti-vaccine movement, and vaccinomics

PubMed Central

Poland, Gregory A.; Jacobson, Robert M.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.

2009-01-01

Important scientific, cultural, temporal, and secular issues impact the development of, and delivery of vaccines. In this paper we discuss the impact of demographics, regulatory science, the anti-vaccine movement, and finally the impact of the new biology and individualized medicine, which we call vaccinomics, on vaccine development and delivery. A description of the issues and how they have, are, or should be impacting vaccinology is provided, and hopefully will result in increased attention and discussion among vaccinologists. These issues have been under-valued, under-discussed, and in some cases, ignored. We hope that discussion of these issues will result in changes in how we develop, and how we communicate those developments, to the public. PMID:19200833

Quantifying swallowing function for healthy adults in different age groups using acoustic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Man-Yin

Dysphagia is a medical condition that can lead to devastating complications including weight loss, aspiration pneumonia, dehydration, and malnutrition; hence, timely identification is essential. Current dysphagia evaluation tools are either invasive, time consuming, or highly dependent on the experience of an individual clinician. The present study aims to develop a non-invasive, quantitative screening tool for dysphagia identification by capturing acoustic data from swallowing and mastication. The first part of this study explores the feasibility of using acoustic data to quantify swallowing and mastication. This study then further identifies mastication and swallowing trends in a neurotypical adult population. An acoustic capture protocol for dysphagia screening is proposed. Finally, the relationship among speaking, lingual and mastication rates are explored. Results and future directions are discussed.

Developments in the safe design of LNG tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulford, N. J.; Slatter, M. D.

The objective of this paper is to discuss how the gradual development of design concepts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage systems has helped to enhance storage safety and economy. The experience in the UK is compared with practice in other countries with similar LNG storage requirements. Emphasis is placed on the excellent record of safety and reliability exhibited by tanks with a primary metal container designed and constructed to approved standards. The work carried out to promote the development of new materials, fire protection, and monitoring systems for use in LNG storage is also summarized, and specific examples described from British Gas experience. Finally, the trends in storage tank design world-wide and options for future design concepts are discussed, bearing in mind planned legislation and design codes governing hazardous installations.

A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Suzanne M.

2014-01-01

Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

Next Generation Civil Transport Aircraft Design Considerations for Improving Vehicle and System-Level Efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acosta, Diana M.; Guynn, Mark D.; Wahls, Richard A.; DelRosario, Ruben,

2013-01-01

The future of aviation will benefit from research in aircraft design and air transportation management aimed at improving efficiency and reducing environmental impacts. This paper presents civil transport aircraft design trends and opportunities for improving vehicle and system-level efficiency. Aircraft design concepts and the emerging technologies critical to reducing thrust specific fuel consumption, reducing weight, and increasing lift to drag ratio currently being developed by NASA are discussed. Advancements in the air transportation system aimed towards system-level efficiency are discussed as well. Finally, the paper describes the relationship between the air transportation system, aircraft, and efficiency. This relationship is characterized by operational constraints imposed by the air transportation system that influence aircraft design, and operational capabilities inherent to an aircraft design that impact the air transportation system.

Future transportation trends and technology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This document was prepared as a resource for the Oregon Department of Transportation's (ODOT's) 1997 Research Strategic Planning Meeting held in November 1997. Included in the paper are relevant socioeconomic trends, including social, environmnetal, ...

Fire Organization and Administration: Report of Futuring Group 3

Treesearch

1987-01-01

Futuring Group 3 identified 12 trends that determine the way fire administrators must plan and budget for efficient wildland/urban fire protection organizations in the future. Five key visions and associated strategies were also identified.

Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

1981-01-01

High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

The Future at Work. An Assessment of Changing Workplace Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies, Inc., Washington, DC.

Technological and demographic changes affect the nation's employment landscape. The most consistent trend of the century has been the shrinking workweek. By the year 2000, many workers will spend only 32 hours per week at work. Other workplace changes will continue the quest for more work satisfaction: technical trends (flextime/telecommuting);…

Financing the Public Schools in the Great Lake States: Declining Revenues in the 1980s?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geske, Terry G.

1984-01-01

Analyzes data on the economic prospects of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin--including demographic and economic trends, trends in taxation systems, school revenue and expenditure trends, and future revenue prospects--and offers prognoses for individual states. Generally, short-range revenue prospects are bleak, and long-range…

Seventy-One Trends That May Affect Entrepreneur Education for Future World Markets.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cetron, Marvin

Entrepreneurship education is and will likely continue to be affected by various societal, technological, educational, labor force, management, ideological, family, and institutional trends. In the area of the economy, these trends include a rise of middle-class society, the integration of the national economy, and the integration of the national…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2016. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 89

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; Schulenberg, John E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2017-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2015. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 87

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2016-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Land use in the lake states region: an analysis of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Thomas E. Mauldin; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

This paper presents the historic trends and future projections of forest, farm, and urban land uses for the Lake States of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Since the 1950s, forest and farm land have been decreasing, and urban and other land uses have been increasing throughout the Lake States. Forest, crop, and pasture land have decreased in the region by 3.2, 5.4...

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings 2005. NIH Publication No. 06-5882

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2006-01-01

Results from the Monitoring the Future's 2005 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students are given in this report. Recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs are emphasized, as well as trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug. This study has shown these beliefs and attitudes to…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2014. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions

PubMed Central

Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur PJ; Oosterveer, Peter

2014-01-01

A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology’s contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology’s strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change. PMID:25937642

On Target Localization Using Combined RSS and AoA Measurements

PubMed Central

Beko, Marko; Dinis, Rui

2018-01-01

This work revises existing solutions for a problem of target localization in wireless sensor networks (WSNs), utilizing integrated measurements, namely received signal strength (RSS) and angle of arrival (AoA). The problem of RSS/AoA-based target localization became very popular in the research community recently, owing to its great applicability potential and relatively low implementation cost. Therefore, here, a comprehensive study of the state-of-the-art (SoA) solutions and their detailed analysis is presented. The beginning of this work starts by considering the SoA approaches based on convex relaxation techniques (more computationally complex in general), and it goes through other (less computationally complex) approaches, as well, such as the ones based on the generalized trust region sub-problems framework and linear least squares. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the computational complexity of each solution is reviewed. Furthermore, an extensive set of simulation results is presented. Finally, the main conclusions are summarized, and a set of future aspects and trends that might be interesting for future research in this area is identified. PMID:29671832

Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions.

PubMed

Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur Pj; Oosterveer, Peter

2015-05-01

A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology's contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology's strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change.

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

Analysis of Big Data in Gait Biomechanics: Current Trends and Future Directions.

PubMed

Phinyomark, Angkoon; Petri, Giovanni; Ibáñez-Marcelo, Esther; Osis, Sean T; Ferber, Reed

2018-01-01

The increasing amount of data in biomechanics research has greatly increased the importance of developing advanced multivariate analysis and machine learning techniques, which are better able to handle "big data". Consequently, advances in data science methods will expand the knowledge for testing new hypotheses about biomechanical risk factors associated with walking and running gait-related musculoskeletal injury. This paper begins with a brief introduction to an automated three-dimensional (3D) biomechanical gait data collection system: 3D GAIT, followed by how the studies in the field of gait biomechanics fit the quantities in the 5 V's definition of big data: volume, velocity, variety, veracity, and value. Next, we provide a review of recent research and development in multivariate and machine learning methods-based gait analysis that can be applied to big data analytics. These modern biomechanical gait analysis methods include several main modules such as initial input features, dimensionality reduction (feature selection and extraction), and learning algorithms (classification and clustering). Finally, a promising big data exploration tool called "topological data analysis" and directions for future research are outlined and discussed.

Ex vivo lung perfusion: a comprehensive review of the development and exploration of future trends.

PubMed

Roman, Marius A; Nair, Sukumaran; Tsui, Steven; Dunning, John; Parmar, Jasvir S

2013-09-01

There is a critical mismatch between the number of donor lungs available and the demand for lungs for transplantation. This has created unacceptably high waiting-list mortality for lung transplant recipients. Currently (2012) in the United Kingdom, there are 216 patients on the lung transplant waiting list and 17 on heart and lung transplant list. The waiting times for suitable lungs average 412 days, with an increasing mortality and morbidity among the patients on the lung transplant list. Ex vivo lung perfusion (EVLP) has emerged as a technique for the assessment, resuscitation, and potential repair of suboptimal donor lungs. This is a rapidly developing field with significant clinical implications. In this review article, we critically appraise the background developments that have led to our current clinical practice. In particular, we focus on the human and animal experience, the different perfusion-ventilation strategies, and the impact of different perfusates and leukocyte filters. Finally, we examine EVLP as a potential research tool. This will provide insight into EVLP and its future development in the field of clinical lung transplantation.

Community challenges in biomedical text mining over 10 years: success, failure and the future.

PubMed

Huang, Chung-Chi; Lu, Zhiyong

2016-01-01

One effective way to improve the state of the art is through competitions. Following the success of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP) in bioinformatics research, a number of challenge evaluations have been organized by the text-mining research community to assess and advance natural language processing (NLP) research for biomedicine. In this article, we review the different community challenge evaluations held from 2002 to 2014 and their respective tasks. Furthermore, we examine these challenge tasks through their targeted problems in NLP research and biomedical applications, respectively. Next, we describe the general workflow of organizing a Biomedical NLP (BioNLP) challenge and involved stakeholders (task organizers, task data producers, task participants and end users). Finally, we summarize the impact and contributions by taking into account different BioNLP challenges as a whole, followed by a discussion of their limitations and difficulties. We conclude with future trends in BioNLP challenge evaluations. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Statistical Process Control for KSC Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, Roger G.; Delgado, Hector; Tilley, Randy

1996-01-01

The 1996 Summer Faculty Fellowship Program and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) served as the basis for a research effort into statistical process control for KSC processing. The effort entailed several tasks and goals. The first was to develop a customized statistical process control (SPC) course for the Safety and Mission Assurance Trends Analysis Group. The actual teaching of this course took place over several weeks. In addition, an Internet version of the same course complete with animation and video excerpts from the course when it was taught at KSC was developed. The application of SPC to shuttle processing took up the rest of the summer research project. This effort entailed the evaluation of SPC use at KSC, both present and potential, due to the change in roles for NASA and the Single Flight Operations Contractor (SFOC). Individual consulting on SPC use was accomplished as well as an evaluation of SPC software for KSC use in the future. A final accomplishment of the orientation of the author to NASA changes, terminology, data format, and new NASA task definitions will allow future consultation when the needs arise.

Teaching Research Methods and Statistics in eLearning Environments: Pedagogy, Practical Examples, and Possible Futures

PubMed Central

Rock, Adam J.; Coventry, William L.; Morgan, Methuen I.; Loi, Natasha M.

2016-01-01

Generally, academic psychologists are mindful of the fact that, for many students, the study of research methods and statistics is anxiety provoking (Gal et al., 1997). Given the ubiquitous and distributed nature of eLearning systems (Nof et al., 2015), teachers of research methods and statistics need to cultivate an understanding of how to effectively use eLearning tools to inspire psychology students to learn. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to discuss critically how using eLearning systems might engage psychology students in research methods and statistics. First, we critically appraise definitions of eLearning. Second, we examine numerous important pedagogical principles associated with effectively teaching research methods and statistics using eLearning systems. Subsequently, we provide practical examples of our own eLearning-based class activities designed to engage psychology students to learn statistical concepts such as Factor Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis. Finally, we discuss general trends in eLearning and possible futures that are pertinent to teachers of research methods and statistics in psychology. PMID:27014147

Teaching Research Methods and Statistics in eLearning Environments: Pedagogy, Practical Examples, and Possible Futures.

PubMed

Rock, Adam J; Coventry, William L; Morgan, Methuen I; Loi, Natasha M

2016-01-01

Generally, academic psychologists are mindful of the fact that, for many students, the study of research methods and statistics is anxiety provoking (Gal et al., 1997). Given the ubiquitous and distributed nature of eLearning systems (Nof et al., 2015), teachers of research methods and statistics need to cultivate an understanding of how to effectively use eLearning tools to inspire psychology students to learn. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to discuss critically how using eLearning systems might engage psychology students in research methods and statistics. First, we critically appraise definitions of eLearning. Second, we examine numerous important pedagogical principles associated with effectively teaching research methods and statistics using eLearning systems. Subsequently, we provide practical examples of our own eLearning-based class activities designed to engage psychology students to learn statistical concepts such as Factor Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis. Finally, we discuss general trends in eLearning and possible futures that are pertinent to teachers of research methods and statistics in psychology.

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center

PubMed Central

Dou, Chao

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always “dirty,” which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the “dirty” data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 PMID:28090205

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center.

PubMed

Miao, Beibei; Dou, Chao; Jin, Xuebo

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always "dirty," which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the "dirty" data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 .

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a negative trend for the snow-cover melting date). Precipitation does not show a significant trend for these years, even though its inter-annual variability has been outstanding. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 906 mm/year doubles the mean precipitation, which somehow compensates for the occurrence of a sequence of dry years with a minimum of 250 mm/year. The assessment of the spatial pattern of snow cover duration shows that both the trend and the slope of the trend becomes more pronounced with elevation. At higher elevations the snow-cover duration decreased an average of 3 days from 2000-2014. This research has been funded by ECOPOTENTIAL (Improving future ecosystem benefits through Earth Observations) Horizon 2020 EU project, and Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (LTER-site)

Trends in the Study of Motivation in Schizophrenia: A Bibliometric Analysis of Six Decades of Research (1956-2017).

PubMed

Najas-Garcia, Antonia; Carmona, Viviana R; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2018-01-01

Motivation in schizophrenia has been a key research aim for several decades. Motivation is a very complex process underlying negative symptoms that has been assessed and identified using very different instruments and terminologies. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the growing literature production and highlights an extensive set of variables to better understand the study of motivation. Electronic databases were searched in order to compile relevant studies of motivation in individuals with schizophrenia. The initial search identified 3,248 potentially interesting records, and of these, 161 articles published between 1956 and 2017 were finally included. Information such as year of publication, journal, country, and number of authors was codified. Variables related to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and motivational terms were also extracted. The results revealed a significant growth trend in literature production, especially since the 2000s, with reward as the main term studied. In addition, questionnaires were identified as the preferred instrument to assess motivation in patients with schizophrenia. Other aspects such as country of publication, authors, journals of publication, and co-citation network analysis were also examined. The discussion offers recommendations for future research.

Design on intelligent gateway technique in home network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhonggong; Feng, Xiancheng

2008-12-01

Based on digitization, multimedia, mobility, wide band, real-time interaction and so on,family networks, because can provide diverse and personalized synthesis service in information, correspondence work, entertainment, education and health care and so on, are more and more paid attention by the market. The family network product development has become the focus of the related industry. In this paper,the concept of the family network and the overall reference model of the family network are introduced firstly.Then the core techniques and the correspondence standard related with the family network are proposed.The key analysis is made for the function of family gateway, the function module of the software,the key technologies to client side software architecture and the trend of development of the family network entertainment seeing and hearing service and so on. Product present situation of the family gateway and the future trend of development, application solution of the digital family service are introduced. The development of the family network product bringing about the digital family network industry is introduced finally.It causes the development of software industries,such as communication industry,electrical appliances industry, computer and game and so on.It also causes the development of estate industry.

Generic medicine pricing in Europe: current issues and future perspective.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven

2008-01-01

This editorial discusses a number of trends affecting the pricing of generic medicines in Europe. With respect to pricing, recent evidence has emerged that European generic medicine manufacturers face competition from Indian manufacturers; that the price level of generic medicines varies substantially between European countries; and that generic medicine manufacturers engage in competition by discount rather than price competition in France, The Netherlands and the UK. These trends suggest that there may be scope for further reducing the prices of generic medicines in several countries. In relation to reference pricing, most European countries have incorporated market incentives within reference pricing systems with a view to promoting price competition. The European experience indicates that the generic medicines industry delivers competitive prices under a reference pricing system if demand-side policies are in place that stimulate physicians, pharmacists and patients to use generic medicines. Finally, caution needs to be exercised when focusing on the drivers of generic medicine pricing as these drivers not only vary between countries, but may also vary within a country. Manufacturers of originator and generic medicines do not take a single pricing approach following patent expiry, but vary their pricing strategy from molecule to molecule.

Ubiquitous computing in sports: A review and analysis.

PubMed

Baca, Arnold; Dabnichki, Peter; Heller, Mario; Kornfeind, Philipp

2009-10-01

Ubiquitous (pervasive) computing is a term for a synergetic use of sensing, communication and computing. Pervasive use of computing has seen a rapid increase in the current decade. This development has propagated in applied sport science and everyday life. The work presents a survey of recent developments in sport and leisure with emphasis on technology and computational techniques. A detailed analysis on new technological developments is performed. Sensors for position and motion detection, and such for equipment and physiological monitoring are discussed. Aspects of novel trends in communication technologies and data processing are outlined. Computational advancements have started a new trend - development of smart and intelligent systems for a wide range of applications - from model-based posture recognition to context awareness algorithms for nutrition monitoring. Examples particular to coaching and training are discussed. Selected tools for monitoring rules' compliance and automatic decision-making are outlined. Finally, applications in leisure and entertainment are presented, from systems supporting physical activity to systems providing motivation. It is concluded that the emphasis in future will shift from technologies to intelligent systems that allow for enhanced social interaction as efforts need to be made to improve user-friendliness and standardisation of measurement and transmission protocols.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

[Tempora mutantur... et nos? The future of the Hungarian anatomy teaching in reflection of the German trends].

PubMed

Weiczner, Roland

2015-10-04

The traditional four-semester anatomy is a subject to change: next to the external pressure, there is an intrinsic need to shift the emphasis. The mapping of the strengths, weaknesses and threats of the Hungarian anatomy teaching helps to formulate the directions of possible development. Current trends in the German medical education should be carefully followed. Nowadays, nearly 25% of the medical students in Germany are studying according to the new, integrated "Modellstudiengang", i.e. all the conventional subjects are reorganised into organ system thematic blocks. The unified German written final exam system provides an objective assessment parameter: to rank the 36 German medical schools according to the results of the anatomy exams. The homepage-published data, the number of semesters or teaching hours, or the thematic concept of the subject alone cannot explain the rankings of the medical schools according to the anatomy exam results. The greatest challenges of the Hungarian anatomy teaching today are: the development of an outcome-oriented, unified, practical system of requirements, the redefinition of the subject, the more effective interaction with the clinical colleagues, solving the problems of faculty recruitment and establishing the vertical integration of anatomy.

Trends in the Study of Motivation in Schizophrenia: A Bibliometric Analysis of Six Decades of Research (1956–2017)

PubMed Central

Najas-Garcia, Antonia; Carmona, Viviana R.; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2018-01-01

Motivation in schizophrenia has been a key research aim for several decades. Motivation is a very complex process underlying negative symptoms that has been assessed and identified using very different instruments and terminologies. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the growing literature production and highlights an extensive set of variables to better understand the study of motivation. Electronic databases were searched in order to compile relevant studies of motivation in individuals with schizophrenia. The initial search identified 3,248 potentially interesting records, and of these, 161 articles published between 1956 and 2017 were finally included. Information such as year of publication, journal, country, and number of authors was codified. Variables related to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and motivational terms were also extracted. The results revealed a significant growth trend in literature production, especially since the 2000s, with reward as the main term studied. In addition, questionnaires were identified as the preferred instrument to assess motivation in patients with schizophrenia. Other aspects such as country of publication, authors, journals of publication, and co-citation network analysis were also examined. The discussion offers recommendations for future research. PMID:29515471

2010 Fuel Cell Technologies Market Report, June 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report summarizes 2010 data on fuel cells, including market penetration and industry trends. It also covers cost, price, and performance trends, along with policy and market drivers and the future outlook for fuel cells.

Surface Generated Acoustic Wave Biosensors for the Detection of Pathogens: A Review

PubMed Central

Rocha-Gaso, María-Isabel; March-Iborra, Carmen; Montoya-Baides, Ángel; Arnau-Vives, Antonio

2009-01-01

This review presents a deep insight into the Surface Generated Acoustic Wave (SGAW) technology for biosensing applications, based on more than 40 years of technological and scientific developments. In the last 20 years, SGAWs have been attracting the attention of the biochemical scientific community, due to the fact that some of these devices - Shear Horizontal Surface Acoustic Wave (SH-SAW), Surface Transverse Wave (STW), Love Wave (LW), Flexural Plate Wave (FPW), Shear Horizontal Acoustic Plate Mode (SH-APM) and Layered Guided Acoustic Plate Mode (LG-APM) - have demonstrated a high sensitivity in the detection of biorelevant molecules in liquid media. In addition, complementary efforts to improve the sensing films have been done during these years. All these developments have been made with the aim of achieving, in a future, a highly sensitive, low cost, small size, multi-channel, portable, reliable and commercially established SGAW biosensor. A setup with these features could significantly contribute to future developments in the health, food and environmental industries. The second purpose of this work is to describe the state-of-the-art of SGAW biosensors for the detection of pathogens, being this topic an issue of extremely importance for the human health. Finally, the review discuses the commercial availability, trends and future challenges of the SGAW biosensors for such applications. PMID:22346725

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of the Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 80

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

PubMed

Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

2018-02-06

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Modernizing Systems and Software: How Evolving Trends in Future Trends in Systems and Software Technology Bode Well for Advancing the Precision of Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-23

of Code Need for increased functionality will be a forcing function to bring the fields of software and systems engineering... of Software-Intensive Systems is Increasing 3 How Evolving Trends in Systems and Software Technologies Bode Well for Advancing the Precision of ...Engineering in Continued Partnership 4 How Evolving Trends in Systems and Software Technologies Bode Well for Advancing the

Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

1999-01-01

Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

At Risk of Loss: The Endangered Future of Low-Income Rental Housing Resources. Third Printing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clay, Phillip L.

This report explores the dimensions of the potential loss of low-rent housing, its causes, and the possible solutions. Chapter 1 is an introduction. Chapter 2, "Housing the Poor: Trends and Issues," includes the following sections: (1) "Trends in the Incidence of Poverty"; and (2) "Trends in Low Rent Housing." Chapter…

An Overview of Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

The "Overview" is a condensation of the full Sixteen Trends book. This abbreviated version provides an economical opportunity to order in bulk and distribute copies to an entire school staff, community groups, or other clients and constituents. The "Overview of Sixteen Trends" is an important tool for raising awareness about the need to scan the…

Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

Treesearch

Carl H. Reidel

1980-01-01

I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

The Future of the Web, Intelligent Devices, and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strauss, Howard

2007-01-01

In this article, the author looks to the past for trends in hardware, software, networking, and education and attempt to extrapolate where they are going and what their broad implications might be. However, there are many different ways that trends can be interpreted, and it is easy to pick trends that support one's thesis and ignore ones that…

Spatiotemporal reference evapotranspiration changes in humid and semi-arid regions of Iran: past trends and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nouri, Milad; Homaee, Mehdi; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-06-01

This study was undertaken to investigate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) changes in semi-arid and humid regions of Iran during the past (1966-2010) and future (2011-2099). For detecting possible trend in ET0 over 1966-2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test was employed. The outputs of Hadley Centre coupled model version 3 (HadCM3) and the third generation couple global climate model (CGCM3) under A2, B2, and A1B emission scenarios were also used to simulate the future ET0 changes by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicated upward trends in annual ET0 during 1966-2010 in the most sites. Furthermore, the significant increasing ET0 trends were identified for 54.5, 18.2, 27.3, 22.7, and 36.3% of studied locations during winter, spring, summer, autumn, and entire year, respectively. Positive trends in ET0 were mostly found in northeast, west, and northwest Iran, and insignificant downward ET0 trends were primarily detected in southwestern and southern stations in 1966-2010. The ET0 changes were attributed to wind speed changes in semi-arid regions and mean temperature changes in humid areas in the past period. An increase in ET0 was projected under all scenarios due mainly to temperature rise and declined relative humidity in the investigated regions from 2011 to 2100. Averaged over all stations, the lowest and highest ET0 increment were, respectively, modeled for autumn and summer using CGCM3 outputs and winter and autumn using HadCM3 outputs. Given significant ET0 increase over the twenty-first century, appropriate adaptive measures are required to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productions.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... RESPONSIBILITY ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member... well as the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final...

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

PubMed

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Evaluating United States and world consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in final products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Matthew

This paper develops scenarios of future rare-earth-magnet metal (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium) consumption in the permanent magnets used in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles. The scenarios start with naive base-case scenarios for growth in wind-turbine and hybrid-electric-vehicle sales over the period 2011 to 2020, using historical data for each good. These naive scenarios assume that future growth follows time trends in historical data and does not depend on any exogenous variable. Specifically, growth of each technological market follows historical time trends, and the amount of rare earths used per unit of technology remains fixed. The chosen reference year is 2010. Implied consumptions of the rare earth magnet metals are calculated from these scenarios. Assumptions are made for the material composition of permanent magnets, the market share of permanent-magnet wind turbines and vehicles, and magnet weight per unit of technology. Different scenarios estimate how changes in factors like the material composition of magnets, growth of the economy, and the price of a substitute could affect future consumption. Each scenario presents a different method for reducing rare earth consumption and could be interpreted as potential policy choices. In 2010, the consumption (metric tons, rare-earth-oxide equivalent) of each rare-earth-magnet metal was as follows. Total neodymium consumption in the world for both technologies was 995 tons; dysprosium consumption was 133 tons; terbium consumption was 50 tons; praseodymium consumption was zero tons. The base scenario for wind turbines shows there could be strong, exponential growth in the global wind turbine market. New U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles would decline (in line with the current economic recession) while non-U.S. sales increase through 2020. There would be an overall increase in the total amount of magnetic rare earths consumed in the world. Total consumption of each rare earth in the short-term (2015) and mid-term (2020) scenarios could be between: 1,984 to 6,475 tons (2015) and 3,487 to 13,763 tons (2020) of neodymium; 331 to 864 tons (2015) and 587 to 1,834 tons (2020) of dysprosium; 123 to 325 tons (2015) and 219 to 687 tons (2020) of terbium; finally, zero to 871 tons (2015) and zero to 1,493 tons (2020) of praseodymium. Hybrid vehicle sales in non-U.S. countries could account for a large portion of magnetic rare earth consumption. Wind turbine and related rare earth consumption growth will also be driven by non-U.S. countries, especially developing nations like China. Despite wind turbines using bigger magnets, the sheer volume of hybrids sold and non-U.S. consumers could account for most future consumption of permanent magnets and their rare earths.

Multigenerational Family Households: Recent Trends and Implications for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mindel, Charles H.

1979-01-01

This paper concerns elderly individuals who share households with kin. Examines historical trends in multigenerational households. In spite of the decline, the multigenerational household is still viable for approximately 2,000,000 persons. (Author)

Presidential Address National Academy of Neuropsychology Conference Boston 2017.

PubMed

Meyers, John E

2018-05-05

This presidential address attempts to predict the future directions of neuropsychology. Predicting the future is always a difficult thing. By examining population trends such as aging and demographics, a clearer picture becomes visible. The population is getting older and more ethnically diverse. Also, examination of the spending trends in health care indicates that neuropsychology needs to be able to adapt to working with larger population-based patient care as well as individual patient care. Shifts in the demographics of neuropsychology, in that the profession previously was 70% male dominate and now is >70% female dominant are also discussed. Trends in NAN's speaker and leader demographics are examined as well as the need to stay current in the trends and latest neuropsychological research lest we become dinosaurs in the next 5-10 years. Recommendations for new neuropsychologists and post-doctoral fellows are also presented.

Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trendsmore » and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and mortality in observational data.

PubMed

Akushevich, I; Yashkin, A P; Kravchenko, J; Fang, F; Arbeev, K; Sloan, F; Yashin, A I

2017-04-01

In this study, we present a new theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and incidence-based mortality and demonstrate how this theory practically works for analyses of Medicare data. In the theory, the prevalence of a disease and incidence-based mortality are modeled in terms of disease incidence and survival after diagnosis supplemented by information on disease prevalence at the initial age and year available in a dataset. Partitioning of the trends of prevalence and mortality is calculated with minimal assumptions. The resulting expressions for the components of the trends are given by continuous functions of data. The estimator is consistent and stable. The developed methodology is applied for data on type 2 diabetes using individual records from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries age 65+. Numerical estimates show excellent concordance between empirical estimates and theoretical predictions. Evaluated partitioning model showed that both prevalence and mortality increase with time. The primary driving factors of the observed prevalence increase are improved survival and increased prevalence at age 65. The increase in diabetes-related mortality is driven by increased prevalence and unobserved trends in time-periods and age-groups outside of the range of the data used in the study. Finally, the properties of the new estimator, possible statistical and systematical uncertainties, and future practical applications of this methodology in epidemiology, demography, public health and health forecasting are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scena...

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

The Next Twenty-Five Years: It's Time to Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jugenheimer, Donald W.

There is a need in the advertising industry for prediction--of the future in general, of the new communication technology, and of the implications for advertising. Studies of the future in other disciplines have identified at least four separate future trends relevant to prediction and preparation for the future in advertising: within specified…

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

High-quality lossy compression: current and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Steven W.

1995-01-01

This paper is concerned with current and future trends in the lossy compression of real sources such as imagery, video, speech and music. We put all lossy compression schemes into common framework where each can be characterized in terms of three well-defined advantages: cell shape, region shape and memory advantages. We concentrate on image compression and discuss how new entropy constrained trellis-based compressors achieve cell- shape, region-shape and memory gain resulting in high fidelity and high compression.

International Conference on Aerospace Trends...2001 - From Aeroplane to Aerospace Plane, Thiruvananthapuram, India, June 27, 28, 1991, Proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-08-01

Consideration is given to operational characteristics of future launch vehicles, trends in propulsion technology, technology challenges in the development of cryogenic propulsion systems for future reusable space-launch vehicles, estimation of the overall drag coefficient of an aerospace plane, and self-reliance in aerospace structures. Attention is also given to basic design concepts for smart actuators for aerospace plane control, a software package for the preliminary design of a helicopter, and multiconstraint wing optimization.

Outdoor recreation trends and futures: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell

2012-01-01

This publication presents a national study of outdoor recreation trends as part of the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The objectives are to review past trends in outdoor recreation participation by Americans, to describe in detail current outdoor recreation participation patterns, and to compare...

Trends in key economic and social indicators for Pacific Northwest states and counties.

Treesearch

Terry L. Raettig

1999-01-01

Local (county) variations in key social and economic indicators are important in Oregon and Washington. Covered employment, wage and salary, unemployment, and population data for 1987 through 1997 showed regional trends in these indicators, which are compared with national trends. Future updates will be published in the “Production, Prices, Employment, and Trade in...

Drafting: Current Trends and Future Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, C.

1976-01-01

Various research findings are reported on drafting trends which the author feels should be incorporated into teaching drafting: (1) true position and geometric tolerancing, (2) decimal and metric dimensioning, (3) functional drafting, (4) automated drafting, and (5) drawing reproductions. (BP)

INTERNATIONAL LEGISLATIVE TRENDS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper will attempt to provide a pollution prevention legislative overview of where we have been, where we are, and some thoughts on pollution prevention legislative trends for the future. overnments have an important role to play by setting the regulatory framework, but clea...

Handicapped Children and Youth: Current-Future International Perspectives and Challenges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menolascino, Frank J.

1979-01-01

Current and emerging trends that impact upon special education worldwide are reviewed. These trends focus on prevention and research, normalization, community-based service systems, parental rights, consumer advocacy, home training, curative approaches, and cost/service benefits. (PHR)

Population Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, W. Parker

1980-01-01

Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

Exploring the utility of measures of critical thinking dispositions and professional behavior development in an audiology education program.

PubMed

Ng, Stella L; Bartlett, Doreen J; Lucy, S Deborah

2013-05-01

Discussions about professional behaviors are growing increasingly prevalent across health professions, especially as a central component to education programs. A strong critical thinking disposition, paired with critical consciousness, may provide future health professionals with a foundation for solving challenging practice problems through the application of sound technical skill and scientific knowledge without sacrificing sensitive, empathic, client-centered practice. In this article, we describe an approach to monitoring student development of critical thinking dispositions and key professional behaviors as a way to inform faculty members' and clinical supervisors' support of students and ongoing curriculum development. We designed this exploratory study to describe the trajectory of change for a cohort of audiology students' critical thinking dispositions (measured by the California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory: [CCTDI]) and professional behaviors (using the Comprehensive Professional Behaviors Development Log-Audiology [CPBDL-A]) in an audiology program. Implications for the CCTDI and CPBDL-A in audiology entry-to-practice curricula and professional development will be discussed. This exploratory study involved a cohort of audiology students, studied over a two-year period, using a one-group repeated measures design. Eighteen audiology students (two male and 16 female), began the study. At the third and final data collection point, 15 students completed the CCTDI, and nine students completed the CPBDL-A. The CCTDI and CPBDL-A were each completed at three time points: at the beginning, at the middle, and near the end of the audiology education program. Data are presented descriptively in box plots to examine the trends of development for each critical thinking disposition dimension and each key professional behavior as well as for an overall critical thinking disposition score. For the CCTDI, there was a general downward trend from time point 1 to time point 2 and a general upward trend from time point 2 to time point 3. Students demonstrated upward trends from the initial to final time point for their self-assessed development of professional behaviors as indicated on the CPBDL-A. The CCTDI and CPBDL-A can be used by audiology education programs as mechanisms for inspiring, fostering, and monitoring the development of critical thinking dispositions and key professional behaviors in students. Feedback and mentoring about dispositions and behaviors in conjunction with completion of these measures is recommended for inspiring and fostering these key professional attributes. American Academy of Audiology.

A review of spatial downscaling of satellite remotely sensed soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jian; Loew, Alexander; Merlin, Olivier; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2017-06-01

Satellite remote sensing technology has been widely used to estimate surface soil moisture. Numerous efforts have been devoted to develop global soil moisture products. However, these global soil moisture products, normally retrieved from microwave remote sensing data, are typically not suitable for regional hydrological and agricultural applications such as irrigation management and flood predictions, due to their coarse spatial resolution. Therefore, various downscaling methods have been proposed to improve the coarse resolution soil moisture products. The purpose of this paper is to review existing methods for downscaling satellite remotely sensed soil moisture. These methods are assessed and compared in terms of their advantages and limitations. This review also provides the accuracy level of these methods based on published validation studies. In the final part, problems and future trends associated with these methods are analyzed.

Synthesis of Graphene-Based Sensors and Application on Detecting SF6 Decomposing Products: A Review

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiaoxing; Cui, Hao; Gui, Yingang

2017-01-01

Graphene-based materials have aroused enormous focus on a wide range of engineering fields because of their unique structure. One of the most promising applications is gas adsorption and sensing. In electrical engineering, graphene-based sensors are also employed as detecting devices to estimate the operation status of gas insulated switchgear (GIS). This paper reviews the main synthesis methods of graphene, gas adsorption, and sensing mechanism of its based sensors, as well as their applications in detecting SF6 decomposing products, such as SO2, H2S, SO2F2, and SOF2, in GIS. Both theoretical and experimental researches on gas response of graphene-based sensors to these typical gases are summarized. Finally, the future research trend about graphene synthesis technique and relevant perspective are also given. PMID:28208836

Respiratory health issues in the Asia-Pacific region: an overview.

PubMed

Jamrozik, Euzebiusz; Musk, Arthur William

2011-01-01

The Asia-Pacific region is home to a large heterogeneous population whose respiratory health is influenced by diverse social, economic and environmental factors. Despite this variability, the most prevalent causes of respiratory morbidity and mortality are tobacco smoking, infection, and air pollution. This review aims to summarize current respiratory health issues in the region including smoking-related diseases especially COPD, lung cancer and infectious problems such as pandemic influenza, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, bacterial pneumonia and tuberculosis, as well as the contribution of air pollution to respiratory disease. Published data on trends in the epidemiology and management of respiratory diseases and are summarized; finally, the limitations of available data and projections for the future of respiratory health in the region are discussed. © 2010 Commonwealth of Australia. Respirology © 2010 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Chemical warfare agent detection: a review of current trends and future perspective.

PubMed

Pacsial-Ong, Eden Joy; Aguilar, Zoraida P

2013-01-01

The World Health Organization recommends countries to create a public health system that can respond to the deliberate release of chemical warfare agents (CWAs). Procedures for preparedness, response, decontamination protocols and medical countermeasures against CWA attacks are described. Known CWAs, including their properties and pharmacological consequences upon exposure, are tabulated and discussed. Requirements imposed on detection systems by various applications and environmental needs are presented in order to assess the devices for detection and identification of specific CWAs. The review surveys current and near-term detection technologies and equipments, as well as devices that are currently available to the military and civilian first responders. Brief technical discussions of several detection technologies are presented, with emphasis placed in the principles of detection. Finally, enabling technologies that form the basis for advanced sensing systems and devices are described.

Smart textiles: Challenges and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherenack, Kunigunde; van Pieterson, Liesbeth

2012-11-01

Smart textiles research represents a new model for generating creative and novel solutions for integrating electronics into unusual environments and will result in new discoveries that push the boundaries of science forward. A key driver for smart textiles research is the fact that both textile and electronics fabrication processes are capable of functionalizing large-area surfaces at very high speeds. In this article we review the history of smart textiles development, introducing the main trends and technological challenges faced in this field. Then, we identify key challenges that are the focus of ongoing research. We then proceed to discuss fundamentals of smart textiles: textile fabrication methods and textile interconnect lines, textile sensor, and output device components and integration of commercial components into textile architectures. Next we discuss representative smart textile systems and finally provide our outlook over the field and a prediction for the future.

Social justice in Chinese higher education: Regional issues of equity and access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, W. James

2007-01-01

A topic of growing concern in Chinese higher education to policy-makers, scholars, and future student applicants is social justice. With the trend toward increasing enrollments in China's higher-education institutions, issues of equity and access have begun to surface, especially as they relate to China's minority population of over 100 million persons. The present contribution offers an overview of the regional boundaries of China, both geographic and historical. It then looks at the development of urbanicity in connection with higher education. Third, it describes the recent history of the gender gap in education both in general and in higher education in particular. Fourth, it examines the ethnic boundaries that exist in higher education. The final section analyzes related findings drawn from interviews and questionnaires administered to faculty members, administrators, and students at ten sample universities.

Demographic trends of sick leave absenteeism among civil service employees at a federal agency from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Gajewski, Kim; Burris, Dara; Spears, D Ross; Sullivan, Kevin; Oyinloye, Oluremi; McNeil, Carrie; Meechan, Paul; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy

2015-03-01

To investigate the associations between demographic variables and sick leave use. We analyzed sick leave use among civil servants at a federal agency (FA) from 2004 to 2012 by demographic and FA-specific variables. We used a mixed methods approach and type III analysis to build a descriptive model of sick leave proportions and demographic variables. Sick absenteeism usage varied significantly (variation of greater than one sick day per year) by sex, Emergency Operations Center response tier, length of service at the FA, age, and general schedule pay grade level. Our final descriptive model contained age, sex, response tier and an interaction term between age and sex. Future studies should examine these associations on smaller time scales, perhaps breaking the data down by month or day of the week.

Transmutation studies at CEA in frame of the SPIN program objectives, results and future trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salvatores, M.; Prunier, C.; Guerin, Y.

1995-10-01

In order to respond to the public concern about wastes and in particular the long-lived high level ones, a French law issued on December 30, 1991 identified the major objectives of research for the next fifteen years, before a new debate and possibly a decision on final wastes disposal in Parliament. These objectives are: (1) improvement of the wastes conditioning; (2) extraction and transmutation of the long-lived wastes in order to minimize their long term toxicity; (3) research performed in underground laboratories in order to characterize the capacity of geological structures to confine radioactive wastes (two sites have to bemore » selected for these underground laboratories, in concertation with the local population); (4) last, the study of conditioning and prolonged surface storage of wastes.« less

Botanical, Phytochemical, and Anticancer Properties of the Eucalyptus Species.

PubMed

Vuong, Quan V; Chalmers, Anita C; Jyoti Bhuyan, Deep; Bowyer, Michael C; Scarlett, Christopher J

2015-06-01

The genus Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) is mainly native to Australia; however, some species are now distributed globally. Eucalyptus has been used in indigenous Australian medicines for the treatment of a range of aliments including colds, flu, fever, muscular aches, sores, internal pains, and inflammation. Eucalyptus oils containing volatile compounds have been widely used in the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries for a multitude of purposes. In addition, Eucalyptus extracts containing nonvolatile compounds are also an important source of key bioactive compounds, and several studies have linked Eucalyptus extracts with anticancer properties. With the increasing research interest in Eucalyptus and its health properties, this review briefly outlines the botanical features of Eucalyptus, discusses its traditional use as medicine, and comprehensively reviews its phytochemical and anticancer properties and, finally, proposes trends for future studies. Copyright © 2015 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

Railroad industry modal profile: an outline of the railroad industry workforce trends, challenges, and opportunities - update : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

In 2011, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Office of Research, Development, and Technology (RD&T) published the : first edition of the Railroad Industry Modal Profile: An Outline of the Railroad Industry Workforce Trends, Challenges, and :...

Impact of digital systems technology on man-vehicle systems research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretoi, R. N.

1983-01-01

The present study, based on a NASA technology assessment, examines the effect of new technologies on trends in crew-systems design and their implications from the vantage point of man-vehicle systems research. Those technologies that are most relevant to future trends in crew-systems design are considered along with problems associated with the introduction of rapidly changing technologies and systems concepts from a human-factors point of view. The technologies discussed include information processing, displays and controls, flight and propulsion control, flight and systems management, air traffic control, training and simulation, and flight and resource management. The historical evolution of cockpit systems design is used to illustrate past and possible future trends in man-vehicle systems research.

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

A comparative financial analysis of multi-institutional organizations by ownership type.

PubMed

Coyne, J S

1985-01-01

Concern about future directions in healthcare exists, with corporate consolidation seen as likely and necessary. To understand this transformation, the author examines the financial growth trends among the nation's leading corporate providers. Investor-owned (IO) and not-for-profit (NFP) firms are compared using audited data on four financial accounts (assets, debt, equity and income) and three financial ratios (liquidity, leverage, and profitability). The author analyzes financial trends from 1978 to 1982 and looks beyond the significant differences in the balance sheet and income statement accounts to a significant similarity in ratio trends between the NFP and the IO firms' financial conditions. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of future forms of corporate providers.

The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

2017-05-01

The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

Transparently Interposing User Code at the System Interface

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

trademarks of Symantec Corporation. AFS is a trademark of Transarc Corporation. PC-cillin is a trademark of Trend Micro Devices, Incorporated. Scribe is a...communication. Finally, both the Norton AntiVirus [Symantec 91b] and PC-cillin [ Trend 90] anti-virus applications intercept destructive file operations made... Trend Micro Devices, Incorporated, 1990. [Tygar & Yee 91] J. D. Tygar, Bennet Yee. Dyad: A System for Using Physically Secure Coprocessors

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

International trends in health science librarianship: part 3--the Nordic countries.

PubMed

Haglund, Lotta; Buset, Karen J; Kristiansen, Hanne M; Ovaska, Tuulevi; Murphy, Jeannette

2012-09-01

This is the third in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors carried out a survey of librarians in Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland to identify common developments in their countries. A focus on pedagogy was seen as the most important trend. Future issues will track trends in Southern Europe and Latin America. JM. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

Trends In Susceptibility To Single-Event Upset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, Donald K.; Price, William E.; Kolasinski, Wojciech A.; Koga, Rukotaro; Waskiewicz, Alvin E.; Pickel, James C.; Blandford, James T.

1989-01-01

Report provides nearly comprehensive body of data on single-event upsets due to irradiation by heavy ions. Combines new test data and previously published data from governmental and industrial laboratories. Clear trends emerge from data useful in predicting future performances of devices.

Trends in North American intelligent transportation systems : a year 2000 appraisal

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

This report examines six specific topics regarding the future of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Specific objectives in writing this report are to: (1) Provide an overview of the trends for ITS technologies in North America, including marke...

Trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

The objectives of this study are to observe past trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana, identify factors that determine these costs, quantify their impact, and establish a model that can be used to predict future construction cost in Loui...

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, W. A.; Stevens, G. H.; Stevenson, S. M.; Lekan, J.; Arth, C. H.; Hollansworth, J. E.; Miller, E. F.

1986-01-01

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

A Futures Approach to Policy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

An approach to policy analysis for college officials is described that is based on evaluating and using information about the external environment to consider policy options for the future. The futures approach involves the following tasks: establishing an environmental scanning system to identify critical trends and emerging issues, identifying…

(Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joseph, Earl C.

Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

The Future Workplace: Implications for Rehabilitation. Report from the Study Group. Institute on Rehabilitation Issues (14th, Memphis, Tennessee, October 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arkansas Univ., Fayetteville. Research and Training Center in Vocational Rehabilitation.

This manual addresses the future workplace for persons with disabilities and the implications for rehabilitation. It presents information on trends and forecasts regarding work in the future, to stimulate thought and provoke action to meet the challenge presented by the future workplace. In an introductory section, the workplace of the future is…

The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passig, David

2009-01-01

Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

A Survey of Final-year Undergraduate Laboratory Projects in Biochemistry and Related Degrees in Great Britain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Caroline A.

1997-01-01

Analyzes undergraduate research projects in biochemistry and related subjects at British universities. Discusses the trend toward students doing less research as part of their undergraduate study. Reasons cited for this trend include increased student numbers and costs. (DDR)

NASA/University Conference on Aeronautics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The proceedings of a conference on the future of aeronautics are presented. The subjects discussed include the following: (1) aeronautics and the education of the engineer, (2) technical trends in aeronautics, and (3) the role of the university in aeronautics. The technical trends in aeronautics are concerned with aircraft noise control, the effect of the aircraft on the environment, airborne electronics for automated flight, and trends in aircraft design.

Discussion of DNS: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joslin, Ronald D.

1997-01-01

This paper covers the review, status, and projected future of direct numerical simulation (DNS) methodology relative to the state-of-the-art in computer technology, numerical methods, and the trends in fundamental research programs.

Knowledge Management: Opportunity for the Secretary of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strassmann, Paul A.

1987-01-01

Discuses future trends in the role of the secretary. Suggests that secretaries will, in the next decade, become information managers. Recommends strategies that secretaries can implement to be ready for change. (CH)

Regional elevator survey : grain transportation & industry trends for Great Plains elevators

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

One potential means for gaining insight into the current state of the elevator industry, : and into expectations for future trends, is through a survey. The objective of this study is to profile the transportation and industry characteristics of the ...

Theme: Trends and Issues Affecting the Future of Agricultural Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agricultural Education Magazine, 2000

2000-01-01

Articles discuss trends and issues in agricultural education, community and technical colleges, career/technical studies, Australian agriculture, agricultural science and technology programs in urban areas, genetic engineering, the impact of changing technologies on agricultural education, volunteers, and performance-based assessment. (JOW)

Academic Futures: Prospects for Post-Secondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shere, Waris, Ed.; Duhamel, Ronald, Ed.

Present trends and future directions in postsecondary education in Canada and the United States are addressed in 15 essays and an introduction by Ron Duhamel. Authors and titles are as follows: "Traditional Values in the Contemporary University" (Robin H. Farquhar); "Facing the Future" (R. J. Duhamel); "Challenges to the…

Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efird, Cathy M.

The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

Essays on the Future of Continuing Education Worldwide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziegler, Warren L., Ed.

Topics chosen for these eight seminar papers divide basically into three categories: discussions on processes and methods for planning for the future of adult education; attempts to project into the future such worldwide problems as urbanism, conflict, the population explosion, and specific adult education trends; and discussion of the current…

Back to the Future: Anticipating and Preparing for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapin, Joel D.

1992-01-01

Explains how colleges can take control of their futures by anticipating needs and demands. Describes environmental scanning, a way of identifying future concerns based on current trends and emerging issues. Provides examples of colleges that used forecasting and scanning to develop new courses and refine mission statements. (DMM)

Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07.

PubMed

Silveira, Jonas Augusto C; Colugnati, Fernando Antônio B; Cocetti, Monize; Taddei, José Augusto A C

2014-01-01

to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006) with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]). throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model) assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06]), middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77]), maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27]), birth weight ≥ 3.9kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67]), and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]). the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Gender and Racial Pay Gaps in the 1980s: Accounting for Different Trends. Final Report. Researching Women in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sorensen, Elaine

Two contrasting trends concerning gender and racial wage levels for U.S. workers emerged in the 1980s. The first trend, which is gender-related, is that women made tremendous gains in their wages relative to those of men: in 1978 women earned 61 percent as much as men, while by 1990 that figure rose to 72 percent. Furthermore, these gains extended…

The "wins" of change: evaluating the impact of predicted changes on case management practice.

PubMed

Stanton, Marietta P; Barnett Lammon, Carol Ann

2008-01-01

A variety of strategies were employed to identify current and future trends that would impact the practice of case management. Historical review, consultation with case management experts, literature review, and environmental scanning by practicing case managers were strategies employed to determine the impact of current and future trends on case management. The trends identified in this article have implications for case managers in a variety of settings. Case managers participating in the environmental scanning process to evaluate the impact of the identified trends on their organization included representation from acute care, home care, behavioral health, workers' compensation, and private insurance settings. The top 7 trends identified by experts in the field of case management included pay for performance, recovery audit contractors, Medicare demonstration projects, transitions of care, informatics in healthcare and case management, metrics for case management, and the impact of an aging population in case management. Practicing case managers were asked to react to these trends in terms of likelihood of occurrence in their organization and impact of these trends on their case management practice. Case management will ultimately have a higher degree of accountability for its practice if metrics to evaluate and reimbursement for case management become a reality. A multitude of performance measures exist that will be monitored and be tied to reimbursement. To ensure that agencies are accomplishing these performance measures, case management will potentially have a growing importance. Case managers perceive that these trends have a predominantly positive impact on case management.

Trends in ageing and ageing-in-place and the future market for institutional care: scenarios and policy implications.

PubMed

Alders, Peter; Schut, Frederik T

2018-05-21

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.

Recent trends in automobile recycling: An energy and economic assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curlee, T.R.; Das, S.; Rizy, C.G.

1994-03-01

Recent and anticipated trends in the material composition of domestic and imported automobiles and the increasing cost of landfilling the non-recyclable portion of automobiles (automobile shredder residue or ASR) pose questions about the future of automobile recycling. This report documents the findings of a study sponsored by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Analysis to examine the impacts of these and other relevant trends on the life-cycle energy consumption of automobiles and on the economic viability of the domestic automobile recycling industry. More specifically, the study (1) reviewed the status of the automobile recycling industry in the Unitedmore » States, including the current technologies used to process scrapped automobiles and the challenges facing the automobile recycling industry; (2) examined the current status and future trends of automobile recycling in Europe and Japan, with the objectives of identifying ``lessons learned`` and pinpointing differences between those areas and the United States; (3) developed estimates of the energy system impacts of the recycling status quo and projections of the probable energy impacts of alternative technical and institutional approaches to recycling; and (4) identified the key policy questions that will determine the future economic viability of automobile shredder facilities in the United States.« less

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Trends in Higher Education. Volume 3: Finance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada, 2008

2008-01-01

This third and final volume of the 2007-08 edition of "Trends" focuses on the resources that Canadian universities have to support their teaching and research activities. The volume begins by comparing the combined funding for teaching and research in Canadian universities with higher education funding in some of its most important…

Enabling Technologies for the Future of Chemical Synthesis.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Daniel E; Battilocchio, Claudio; Ley, Steven V

2016-03-23

Technology is evolving at breakneck pace, changing the way we communicate, travel, find out information, and live our lives. Yet chemistry as a science has been slower to adapt to this rapidly shifting world. In this Outlook we use highlights from recent literature reports to describe how progresses in enabling technologies are altering this trend, permitting chemists to incorporate new advances into their work at all levels of the chemistry development cycle. We discuss the benefits and challenges that have arisen, impacts on academic-industry relationships, and future trends in the area of chemical synthesis.

Satellite Networks: Architectures, Applications, and Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhasin, Kul (Compiler)

1998-01-01

Since global satellite networks are moving to the forefront in enhancing the national and global information infrastructures due to communication satellites' unique networking characteristics, a workshop was organized to assess the progress made to date and chart the future. This workshop provided the forum to assess the current state-of-the-art, identify key issues, and highlight the emerging trends in the next-generation architectures, data protocol development, communication interoperability, and applications. Presentations on overview, state-of-the-art in research, development, deployment and applications and future trends on satellite networks are assembled.

Underwater acoustic wireless sensor networks: advances and future trends in physical, MAC and routing layers.

PubMed

Climent, Salvador; Sanchez, Antonio; Capella, Juan Vicente; Meratnia, Nirvana; Serrano, Juan Jose

2014-01-06

This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current research on underwater wireless sensor networks, focusing on the lower layers of the communication stack, and envisions future trends and challenges. It analyzes the current state-of-the-art on the physical, medium access control and routing layers. It summarizes their security threads and surveys the currently proposed studies. Current envisioned niches for further advances in underwater networks research range from efficient, low-power algorithms and modulations to intelligent, energy-aware routing and medium access control protocols.

Employment-based health benefits: recent trends and future outlook.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2012-01-01

The employment-based health benefits system established its roots many years ago. It was during World War II that many more employers began to offer health benefits. Recently, however, both the percentage of workers with employment-based health benefits and the comprehensiveness of such coverage have been declining. This paper examines recent trends in employment-based health benefits. It also considers the likely future of this important workplace benefit in light of shifts from defined benefit to defined contribution models of employee benefits and with regard to the implementation of health reform.

An investigation of trends in precious metal and copper content of RAM modules in WEEE: Implications for long term recycling potential.

PubMed

Charles, Rhys Gareth; Douglas, Peter; Hallin, Ingrid Liv; Matthews, Ian; Liversage, Gareth

2017-02-01

Precious metal (PM) and copper content of dynamic-RAM modules placed on the market during 1991-2008 has been analysed by AAS following comminution and acid digestion. Linear regression analysis of compositional data ordered according to sample chronology was used to identify historic temporal trends in module composition resulting from changes in manufacturing practices, and to project future trends for use in more accurate assessment of future recycling potential. DRAM was found to be 'high grade' waste with: stable levels of gold and silver over time; 80% reduction in palladium content during 1991-2008; and 0.23g/module/year increase in copper content with a 75% projected increase from 2008 by 2020. The accuracy of future recycling potential projections for WEEE using current methods based on static compositional data from current devices is questionable due to likely changes in future device composition. The impact on recycling potential projections of waste laptops, smart phones, cell phones and tablets arising in Europe in 2020 resulting from a 75% increase in copper content is considered against existing projections using static compositional data. The results highlight that failing to consider temporal variations in PM content may result in significant discrepancies between projections and future recycling potential. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

2017-10-01

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

Trends in hospitalization for atrial fibrillation: epidemiology, cost, and implications for the future.

PubMed

Sheikh, Azfar; Patel, Nileshkumar J; Nalluri, Nikhil; Agnihotri, Kanishk; Spagnola, Jonathan; Patel, Aashay; Asti, Deepak; Kanotra, Ritesh; Khan, Hafiz; Savani, Chirag; Arora, Shilpkumar; Patel, Nilay; Thakkar, Badal; Patel, Neil; Pau, Dhaval; Badheka, Apurva O; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Kowalski, Marcin; Viles-Gonzalez, Juan; Paydak, Hakan

2015-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent arrhythmia worldwide and the most common arrhythmia leading to hospitalization. Due to a substantial increase in incidence and prevalence of AF over the past few decades, it attributes to an extensive economic and public health burden. The increasing number of hospitalizations, aging population, anticoagulation management, and increasing trend for disposition to a skilled facility are drivers of the increasing cost associated with AF. There has been significant progress in AF management with the release of new oral anticoagulants, use of left atrial catheter ablation, and novel techniques for left atrial appendage closure. In this article, we aim to review the trends in epidemiology, hospitalization, and cost of AF along with its future implications on public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Toward a Sustainable Agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Future trends in population growth, energy use, climate change, and globalization will challenge agriculturists to develop innovative production systems that are highly productive and environmentally sound. Furthermore, future agricultural production systems must possess an inherent capacity to adap...

Using Health Care Utilization and Publication Patterns to Characterize the Research Portfolio and to Plan Future Research Investments.

PubMed

Katz, Luba; Fink, Rebecca V; Bozeman, Samuel R; McNeil, Barbara J

2014-01-01

Government funders of biomedical research are under increasing pressure to demonstrate societal benefits of their investments. A number of published studies attempted to correlate research funding levels with the societal burden for various diseases, with mixed results. We examined whether research funded by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is well aligned with current and projected veterans' health needs. The organizational structure of the VA makes it a particularly suitable setting for examining these questions. We used the publication patterns and dollar expenditures of VA-funded researchers to characterize the VA research portfolio by disease. We used health care utilization data from the VA for the same diseases to define veterans' health needs. We then measured the level of correlation between the two and identified disease groups that were under- or over-represented in the research portfolio relative to disease expenditures. Finally, we used historic health care utilization trends combined with demographic projections to identify diseases and conditions that are increasing in costs and/or patient volume and consequently represent potential targets for future research investments. We found a significant correlation between research volume/expenditures and health utilization. Some disease groups were slightly under- or over-represented, but these deviations were relatively small. Diseases and conditions with the increasing utilization trend at the VA included hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, hearing loss, sleeping disorders, complications of pregnancy, and several mental disorders. Research investments at the VA are well aligned with veteran health needs. The VA can continue to meet these needs by supporting research on the diseases and conditions with a growing number of patients, costs of care, or both. Our approach can be used by other funders of disease research to characterize their portfolios and to plan research investments.

Biomaterials based strategies for skeletal muscle tissue engineering: existing technologies and future trends.

PubMed

Qazi, Taimoor H; Mooney, David J; Pumberger, Matthias; Geissler, Sven; Duda, Georg N

2015-01-01

Skeletal muscles have a robust capacity to regenerate, but under compromised conditions, such as severe trauma, the loss of muscle functionality is inevitable. Research carried out in the field of skeletal muscle tissue engineering has elucidated multiple intrinsic mechanisms of skeletal muscle repair, and has thus sought to identify various types of cells and bioactive factors which play an important role during regeneration. In order to maximize the potential therapeutic effects of cells and growth factors, several biomaterial based strategies have been developed and successfully implemented in animal muscle injury models. A suitable biomaterial can be utilized as a template to guide tissue reorganization, as a matrix that provides optimum micro-environmental conditions to cells, as a delivery vehicle to carry bioactive factors which can be released in a controlled manner, and as local niches to orchestrate in situ tissue regeneration. A myriad of biomaterials, varying in geometrical structure, physical form, chemical properties, and biofunctionality have been investigated for skeletal muscle tissue engineering applications. In the current review, we present a detailed summary of studies where the use of biomaterials favorably influenced muscle repair. Biomaterials in the form of porous three-dimensional scaffolds, hydrogels, fibrous meshes, and patterned substrates with defined topographies, have each displayed unique benefits, and are discussed herein. Additionally, several biomaterial based approaches aimed specifically at stimulating vascularization, innervation, and inducing contractility in regenerating muscle tissues are also discussed. Finally, we outline promising future trends in the field of muscle regeneration involving a deeper understanding of the endogenous healing cascades and utilization of this knowledge for the development of multifunctional, hybrid, biomaterials which support and enable muscle regeneration under compromised conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Piketty's capital and social policy.

PubMed

Piachaud, David

2014-12-01

Piketty's Capital (2014) primarily describes and analyses changes in the distribution of wealth and annual incomes. This paper focuses on his policy proposals that make up Part Four of the book. Piketty defends the 'social state' but he discusses it largely in terms of distribution and redistribution between tax units. This neglects the important role of social policy in promoting recognition and redistribution of income and opportunities that is related to gender, race, disability and sexual orientation. Nor does Piketty consider inequalities in health which effect life-time incomes, nor the impact of housing policies on house prices and the distribution of wealth. It is argued that Piketty's approach to social security is simplistic and plays down the complexity of competing policy goals. On taxation, Piketty defends progressive taxation and proposes a global capital levy. The latter proposal runs into formidable problems in seeking global taxation in a world of nation states. Rather than seeking a policy that is, for the foreseeable future, wholly politically impractical, a case is made for less idealistic but more practical and urgent tax coordination between nations to address the widespread avoidance of taxation that large corporations and the very wealthy are now permitted - taxation on which the future of the social state depends. The importance of human and social capital, which are largely set aside by Piketty, are discussed. Finally,it is argued that his approach to policy is to describe trends and propose amelioration of growing inequality rather than to identify causes of the trends and propose policies that might address the causes. Nevertheless, the importance of his work in bringing issues of inequality to the fore, especially among economists, is recognized and applauded. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

New approaches to the pharmacological treatment of obesity: can they break through the efficacy barrier?

PubMed

Kennett, G A; Clifton, P G

2010-11-01

In this review we assess the range of centrally active anorectics that are either in human clinical trials, or are likely to be so in the near future. We describe their weight loss efficacy, mode of action at both pharmacological and behavioural levels, where understood, together with the range of side effects that might be expected in clinical use. We have however evaluated these compounds against the considerably more rigorous criteria that are now being used by the Federal Drugs Agency and European Medicines Agency to decide approvals and market withdrawals. Several trends are evident. Recent advances in the understanding of energy balance control have resulted in the exploitation of a number of new targets, some of which have yielded promising data in clinical trials for weight loss. A second major trend is derived from the hypothesis that improved weight loss efficacy over current therapy is most likely to emerge from treatments targeting multiple mechanisms of energy balance control. This reasoning has led to the development of a number of new treatments for obesity where multiple mechanisms are targeted, either by a single molecule, such as tesofensine, or through drug combinations such as qnexa, contrave, empatic, and pramlintide+metreleptin. Many of these approaches also utilise advances in formulation technology to widen safety margins. Finally, the practicality of peptide therapies for obesity has become better validated in recent studies and this may allow more rapid exploitation of novel targets, rather than awaiting the development of orally available small molecules. We conclude that novel, more efficacious and better tolerated treatments for obesity may become available in the near future. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Endowments: Investing in Education's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Ronald A.

1996-01-01

A discussion of college endowment fund management looks at a trend toward successful investments in the last year and focuses on the increasing financial sophistication of historically black institutions. Trends include less conservative investing, more trustee involvement in investment decision making, and use of investment counselors. (MSE)

Home Learning, Technology, and Tomorrow's Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieseberg, Rhonda L.

1995-01-01

Discusses characteristics and trends of home schools and workplaces. Use of computers and computer applications (CD-ROMS, interactive software, and networking) in home schooling provides a compatible environment for future home-based businesses and telecommuting trends. Sidebars include information on home schools on line; standardized test…

Trends Reshaping Colleges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Dale F.; Peek, Roger C.

2002-01-01

Examines current educational trends in the community colleges, based on critical issues addressed at the 2002 Community College Futures Assembly (CCFA) in Orlando, Florida. Describes the CCFA as an independent policy forum, sponsored by the University of Florida, that convenes annually. Discusses the top three critical issues presented: the needs…

International trends in health science librarianship: part 4--four Southern European countries.

PubMed

Lappa, Evagelia; Chaleplioglou, Artemis; Cognetti, Gaetana; Della Seta, Maurella; Napolitani Cheyne, Federica; Juan-Quilis, Veronica; Muñoz-Gonzalez, Laura; Lopes, Sílvia; Murphy, Jeannette

2012-12-01

This is the fourth in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in four Southern European countries in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Future issues will track trends in Latin America and Central Europe. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

Trends in body mass index and prevalence of extreme high obesity among Pennsylvania children and adolescents, 2007-2011: promising but cautionary.

PubMed

Lohrmann, David; YoussefAgha, Ahmed; Jayawardene, Wasantha

2014-04-01

We determined current trends and patterns in overweight, obesity, and extreme high obesity among Pennsylvania pre-kindergarten (pre-K) to 12th grade students and simulated future trends. We analyzed body mass index (BMI) of pre-K to 12th grade students from 43 of 67 Pennsylvania counties in 2007 to 2011 to determine trends and to discern transition patterns among BMI status categories for 2009 to 2011. Vinsem simulation, confirmed by Markov chain modeling, generated future prevalence trends. Combined rates of overweight, obesity, and extreme high obesity decreased among secondary school students across the 5 years, and among elementary students, first increased and then markedly decreased. BMI status remained constant for approximately 80% of normal and extreme high obese students, but both decreased and increased among students who initially were overweight and obese; the increase in BMI remained significant. Overall trends in child and adolescent BMI status seemed positive. BMI transition patterns indicated that although overweight and obesity prevalence leveled off, extreme high obesity, especially among elementary students, is projected to increase substantially over time. If current transition patterns continue, the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme high obesity among Pennsylvania students in 2031 is projected to be 16.0%, 6.6%, and 23.2%, respectively.

Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space - Rationale for planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Puttkamer, J.

1977-01-01

A methodology for planning the industralization of space is discussed. The suggested approach combines the extrapolative ('push') approach, in which alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies, with the normative ('pull') view, in which an ideal state in the far future is postulated and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment. Time-reversed vectors of the future are tied to extrapolated, trend-oriented vectors of the quasi-present to identify common plateaus or stepping stones in technological development. Important steps in the industrialization of space to attain the short-range goals of production of space-derived energy, goods and services and the long-range goal of space colonization are discussed.

The future population and the future labour force.

PubMed

Young, C

1994-01-01

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s." excerpt

Increasing summer net CO 2 uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Welp, Lisa R.; Patra, Prabir K.; Rodenbeck, Christian

Warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the last several decades have been credited with increasing vegetation activity and photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 from the atmosphere in the high northern latitude ecosystems: the boreal forest and arctic tundra. At the same time, soils in the region have been warming, permafrost is melting, fire frequency and severity are increasing, and some regions of the boreal forest are showing signs of stress due to drought or insect disturbance. The recent trends in net carbon balance of these ecosystems, across heterogeneous disturbance patterns, and the future implications of these changesmore » are unclear. Here, we examine CO 2 fluxes from northern boreal and tundra regions from 1985 to 2012, estimated from two atmospheric inversions (RIGC and Jena). Both used measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and wind fields from interannually variable climate reanalysis. In the arctic zone, the latitude region above 60°N excluding Europe (10 W-63°E), neither inversion finds a significant long-term trend in annual CO 2 balance. The boreal zone, the latitude region from approximately 50–60°N, again excluding Europe, showed a trend of 8–11 TgCyr -2 over the common period of validity from 1986 to 2006, resulting in an annual CO 2 sink in 2006 that was 170–230 TgCyr -1 larger than in 1986. This trend appears to continue through 2012 in the Jena inversion as well. In both latitudinal zones, the seasonal amplitude of monthly CO 2 fluxes increased due to increased uptake in summer, and in the arctic zone also due to increased fall CO 2 release. These findings suggest that the boreal zone has been maintaining and likely increasing CO 2 sink strength over this period, despite browning trends in some regions and changes in fire frequency and land use. Meanwhile, the arctic zone shows that increased summer CO 2 uptake, consistent with strong greening trends, is offset by increased fall CO 2 release, resulting in a net neutral trend in annual fluxes. Finally, the inversion fluxes from the arctic and boreal zones covering the permafrost regions showed no indication of a large-scale positive climate–carbon feedback caused by warming temperatures on high northern latitude terrestrial CO 2 fluxes from 1985 to 2012.« less

Increasing summer net CO 2 uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI

DOE PAGES

Welp, Lisa R.; Patra, Prabir K.; Rodenbeck, Christian; ...

2016-07-25

Warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the last several decades have been credited with increasing vegetation activity and photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 from the atmosphere in the high northern latitude ecosystems: the boreal forest and arctic tundra. At the same time, soils in the region have been warming, permafrost is melting, fire frequency and severity are increasing, and some regions of the boreal forest are showing signs of stress due to drought or insect disturbance. The recent trends in net carbon balance of these ecosystems, across heterogeneous disturbance patterns, and the future implications of these changesmore » are unclear. Here, we examine CO 2 fluxes from northern boreal and tundra regions from 1985 to 2012, estimated from two atmospheric inversions (RIGC and Jena). Both used measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and wind fields from interannually variable climate reanalysis. In the arctic zone, the latitude region above 60°N excluding Europe (10 W-63°E), neither inversion finds a significant long-term trend in annual CO 2 balance. The boreal zone, the latitude region from approximately 50–60°N, again excluding Europe, showed a trend of 8–11 TgCyr -2 over the common period of validity from 1986 to 2006, resulting in an annual CO 2 sink in 2006 that was 170–230 TgCyr -1 larger than in 1986. This trend appears to continue through 2012 in the Jena inversion as well. In both latitudinal zones, the seasonal amplitude of monthly CO 2 fluxes increased due to increased uptake in summer, and in the arctic zone also due to increased fall CO 2 release. These findings suggest that the boreal zone has been maintaining and likely increasing CO 2 sink strength over this period, despite browning trends in some regions and changes in fire frequency and land use. Meanwhile, the arctic zone shows that increased summer CO 2 uptake, consistent with strong greening trends, is offset by increased fall CO 2 release, resulting in a net neutral trend in annual fluxes. Finally, the inversion fluxes from the arctic and boreal zones covering the permafrost regions showed no indication of a large-scale positive climate–carbon feedback caused by warming temperatures on high northern latitude terrestrial CO 2 fluxes from 1985 to 2012.« less

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

2018-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

The future of Cash and Counseling: the framers' view.

PubMed

Mahoney, Kevin J; Fishman, Nancy Wieler; Doty, Pamela; Squillace, Marie R

2007-02-01

This paper reflects on the progress of the original Cash and Counseling states, and shows how this model has spread, how it has evolved over time, and what is left to improve. It then discusses the generalizability of the Cash and Counseling approach beyond long-term care and ventures some thoughts on what still needs to be learned. Finally, this paper suggests some of the contingencies that could affect the diffusion of this innovation. Drawing from ten years of experiences with the fifteen Cash and Counseling states, plus their analyses of current trends and future opportunities and threats, the framers of the Cash and Counseling model reflect on future directions. This paper is essentially a policy-driven analysis of how the Cash and Counseling model has been sustained and disseminated, how it is likely to develop, and what still needs to be learned. The basic Cash and Counseling model appears adaptable to different state environments and populations, but that hypothesis will be severely tested as more and more states seek to replicate. As one step to promote flexibility while capturing and preserving the essence of the model that led to such promising research results, the Cash & Counseling National Program Office developed a "Vision Statement". The Cash and Counseling approach is not for everyone, but it is clearly a choice many participants desire. Its development merits monitoring.

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

PubMed

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-10-15

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

PubMed Central

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P.; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-01-01

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. PMID:25321875

Examining Women's Alcohol Consumption: The Theory of Planned Behavior and Self-Identity.

PubMed

Haydon, Helen M; Obst, Patricia L; Lewis, Ioni

2018-01-02

Changing trends demonstrate that women, in several economically developed countries, are drinking at higher levels than ever before. This study applied an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), including self-identity, to examine women's intentions to consume alcohol. Women (N = 1069) aged 18-87 years, completed a questionnaire measuring their intentions to engage in binge drinking and frequent drinking. As research indicates that drinking trends are a function of age, hierarchical multiple regressions were conducted separately for four age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45, and above). Results supported the predictive utility of the TPB, (particularly Attitudes and Perceived Behavioral Control). Across the age groups, the final models explained between 48% and 62% of the variance in intentions to binge drink and between 33% and 51% of the variance in intentions to drink frequently. Subjective norms were significant associated with the youngest group (18-24 years) and the oldest group (45+ years). Self-identity was significantly associated with intentions to binge drink in younger women. Implications are discussed with regard to the predictive utility of an extended TPB to include self-identity in determining women's intentions to consume alcohol. Key factors that influence women's decisions to engage in risky drinking behaviors have been underlined to inform future interventions.

Recent trends in metabolic engineering of microorganisms for the production of advanced biofuels.

PubMed

Cheon, Seungwoo; Kim, Hye Mi; Gustavsson, Martin; Lee, Sang Yup

2016-12-01

As climate change has become one of the major global risks, our heavy dependence on petroleum-derived fuels has received much public attention. To solve such problems, production of sustainable fuels has been intensively studied over the past years. Thanks to recent advances in synthetic biology and metabolic engineering technologies, bio-based platforms for advanced biofuels production have been developed using various microorganisms. The strategies for production of advanced biofuels have converged upon four major metabolic routes: the 2-ketoacid pathway, the fatty acid synthesis (FAS) pathway, the isoprenoid pathway, and the reverse β-oxidation pathway. Additionally, the polyketide synthesis pathway has recently been attracting interest as a promising alternative biofuel production route. In this article, recent trends in advanced biofuels production are reviewed by categorizing them into three types of advanced biofuels: alcohols, biodiesel and jet fuel, and gasoline. Focus is given on the strategies of employing synthetic biology and metabolic engineering for the development of microbial strains producing advanced fuels. Finally, the prospects for future advances needed to achieve much more efficient bio-based production of advanced biofuels are discussed, focusing on designing advanced biofuel production pathways coupled with screening, modifying, and creating novel enzymes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-Dimensional Nanomaterials for Biomedical Applications: Emerging Trends and Future Prospects.

PubMed

Chimene, David; Alge, Daniel L; Gaharwar, Akhilesh K

2015-12-02

Two-dimensional (2D) nanomaterials are ultrathin nanomaterials with a high degree of anisotropy and chemical functionality. Research on 2D nanomaterials is still in its infancy, with the majority of research focusing on elucidating unique material characteristics and few reports focusing on biomedical applications of 2D nanomaterials. Nevertheless, recent rapid advances in 2D nanomaterials have raised important and exciting questions about their interactions with biological moieties. 2D nanoparticles such as carbon-based 2D materials, silicate clays, transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), and transition metal oxides (TMOs) provide enhanced physical, chemical, and biological functionality owing to their uniform shapes, high surface-to-volume ratios, and surface charge. Here, we focus on state-of-the-art biomedical applications of 2D nanomaterials as well as recent developments that are shaping this emerging field. Specifically, we describe the unique characteristics that make 2D nanoparticles so valuable, as well as the biocompatibility framework that has been investigated so far. Finally, to both capture the growing trend of 2D nanomaterials for biomedical applications and to identify promising new research directions, we provide a critical evaluation of potential applications of recently developed 2D nanomaterials. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Alternatives to animal testing: research, trends, validation, regulatory acceptance.

PubMed

Huggins, Jane

2003-01-01

Current trends and issues in the development of alternatives to the use of animals in biomedical experimentation are discussed in this position paper. Eight topics are considered and include refinement of acute toxicity assays; eye corrosion/irritation alternatives; skin corrosion/irritation alternatives; contact sensitization alternatives; developmental/reproductive testing alternatives; genetic engineering (transgenic) assays; toxicogenomics; and validation of alternative methods. The discussion of refinement of acute toxicity assays is focused primarily on developments with regard to reduction of the number of animals used in the LD(50) assay. However, the substitution of humane endpoints such as clinical signs of toxicity for lethality in these assays is also evaluated. Alternative assays for eye corrosion/irritation as well as those for skin corrosion/irritation are described with particular attention paid to the outcomes, both successful and unsuccessful, of several validation efforts. Alternative assays for contact sensitization and developmental/reproductive toxicity are presented as examples of methods designed for the examination of interactions between toxins and somewhat more complex physiological systems. Moreover, genetic engineering and toxicogenomics are discussed with an eye toward the future of biological experimentation in general. The implications of gene manipulation for research animals, specifically, are also examined. Finally, validation methods are investigated as to their effectiveness, or lack thereof, and suggestions for their standardization and improvement, as well as implementation are reviewed.

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption.

PubMed

Grunert, Klaus G

2006-09-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

A Novel Dynamic Spectrum Access Framework Based on Reinforcement Learning for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Lin, Yun; Wang, Chao; Wang, Jiaxing; Dou, Zheng

2016-10-12

Cognitive radio sensor networks are one of the kinds of application where cognitive techniques can be adopted and have many potential applications, challenges and future research trends. According to the research surveys, dynamic spectrum access is an important and necessary technology for future cognitive sensor networks. Traditional methods of dynamic spectrum access are based on spectrum holes and they have some drawbacks, such as low accessibility and high interruptibility, which negatively affect the transmission performance of the sensor networks. To address this problem, in this paper a new initialization mechanism is proposed to establish a communication link and set up a sensor network without adopting spectrum holes to convey control information. Specifically, firstly a transmission channel model for analyzing the maximum accessible capacity for three different polices in a fading environment is discussed. Secondly, a hybrid spectrum access algorithm based on a reinforcement learning model is proposed for the power allocation problem of both the transmission channel and the control channel. Finally, extensive simulations have been conducted and simulation results show that this new algorithm provides a significant improvement in terms of the tradeoff between the control channel reliability and the efficiency of the transmission channel.

Microbial production of plant hormones: Opportunities and challenges.

PubMed

Shi, Tian-Qiong; Peng, Hui; Zeng, Si-Yu; Ji, Rong-Yu; Shi, Kun; Huang, He; Ji, Xiao-Jun

2017-03-04

Plant hormones are a class of organic substances which are synthesized during the plant metabolism. They have obvious physiological effect on plant growth at very low concentrations. Generally, plant hormones are mainly divided into 5 categories: auxins, cytokinins, ethylene, gibberellins (GAs) and abscisic acid (ABA). With the deepening of research, some novel plant hormones such as brassinosteroid and salicylates have been found and identified. The plant hormone products are mainly obtained through plant extraction, chemical synthesis as well as microbial fermentation. However, the extremely low yield in plants and relatively complex chemical structure limit the development of the former 2 approaches. Therefore, more attention has been paid into the microbial fermentative production. In this commentary, the developments and technological achievements of the 2 important plant hormones (GAs and ABA) have been discussed. The discovery, producing strains, fermentation technologies, and their accumulation mechanisms are first introduced. Furthermore, progresses in the industrial mass scale production are discussed. Finally, guidelines for future studies for GAs and ABA production are proposed in light of the current progress, challenges and trends in the field. With the widespread use of plant hormones in agriculture, we believe that the microbial production of plant hormones will have a bright future.

Pre-seismic anomalies from optical satellite observations: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Zhong-Hu; Zhao, Jing; Shan, Xinjian

2018-04-01

Detecting various anomalies using optical satellite data prior to strong earthquakes is key to understanding and forecasting earthquake activities because of its recognition of thermal-radiation-related phenomena in seismic preparation phases. Data from satellite observations serve as a powerful tool in monitoring earthquake preparation areas at a global scale and in a nearly real-time manner. Over the past several decades, many new different data sources have been utilized in this field, and progressive anomaly detection approaches have been developed. This paper reviews the progress and development of pre-seismic anomaly detection technology in this decade. First, precursor parameters, including parameters from the top of the atmosphere, in the atmosphere, and on the Earth's surface, are stated and discussed. Second, different anomaly detection methods, which are used to extract anomalous signals that probably indicate future seismic events, are presented. Finally, certain critical problems with the current research are highlighted, and new developing trends and perspectives for future work are discussed. The development of Earth observation satellites and anomaly detection algorithms can enrich available information sources, provide advanced tools for multilevel earthquake monitoring, and improve short- and medium-term forecasting, which play a large and growing role in pre-seismic anomaly detection research.

A Novel Dynamic Spectrum Access Framework Based on Reinforcement Learning for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Lin, Yun; Wang, Chao; Wang, Jiaxing; Dou, Zheng

2016-01-01

Cognitive radio sensor networks are one of the kinds of application where cognitive techniques can be adopted and have many potential applications, challenges and future research trends. According to the research surveys, dynamic spectrum access is an important and necessary technology for future cognitive sensor networks. Traditional methods of dynamic spectrum access are based on spectrum holes and they have some drawbacks, such as low accessibility and high interruptibility, which negatively affect the transmission performance of the sensor networks. To address this problem, in this paper a new initialization mechanism is proposed to establish a communication link and set up a sensor network without adopting spectrum holes to convey control information. Specifically, firstly a transmission channel model for analyzing the maximum accessible capacity for three different polices in a fading environment is discussed. Secondly, a hybrid spectrum access algorithm based on a reinforcement learning model is proposed for the power allocation problem of both the transmission channel and the control channel. Finally, extensive simulations have been conducted and simulation results show that this new algorithm provides a significant improvement in terms of the tradeoff between the control channel reliability and the efficiency of the transmission channel. PMID:27754316

Photosynthetic Energy Conversion Efficiency: Setting a Baseline for Gauging Future Improvements in Important Food and Biofuel Crops1

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The conversion efficiency (εc) of absorbed radiation into biomass (MJ of dry matter per MJ of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) is a component of yield potential that has been estimated at less than half the theoretical maximum. Various strategies have been proposed to improve εc, but a statistical analysis to establish baseline εc levels across different crop functional types is lacking. Data from 164 published εc studies conducted in relatively unstressed growth conditions were used to determine the means, greatest contributors to variation, and genetic trends in εc across important food and biofuel crop species. εc was greatest in biofuel crops (0.049–0.066), followed by C4 food crops (0.046–0.049), C3 nonlegumes (0.036–0.041), and finally C3 legumes (0.028–0.035). Despite confining our analysis to relatively unstressed growth conditions, total incident solar radiation and average growing season temperature most often accounted for the largest portion of εc variability. Genetic improvements in εc, when present, were less than 0.7% per year, revealing the unrealized potential of improving εc as a promising contributing strategy to meet projected future agricultural demand. PMID:25829463

The future of qualitative research in psychology--a discussion with Svend Brinkmann, Günter Mey, Luca Tateo, and Anete Strand.

PubMed

Demuth, Carolin; Terkildsen, Thomas

2015-06-01

In May 2014, a workshop on "The future of qualitative research in psychology" took place at Aalborg University (Denmark), Department of Communication & Psychology organized by Carolin Demuth. Participants from Aalborg University engaged in a lively exchange with the two invited discussants Svend Brinkmann (Aalborg University) and Günter Mey (Stendal University of Applied Science). The discussion started out by addressing the specifics of qualitative research in the field of psychology, its historical development and the perils of recent trends of standardization and neo-positivistic orientations. In light of the discrepancy of what could be potentially achieved with qualitative methods for psychological research and how they are actually currently applied, an emphasis was made that we need to return to an understanding of qualitative methods as a craft skill and to take into account the subjectivity of the researcher in the process of scientific knowledge production. Finally, a re-focus on experience as the genuine object of psychological research, as well as a transdisciplinary approach to our understanding of human psychological functioning within a socially co-constructed, biological, as well as material world was discussed.

Disposing and recycling waste printed circuit boards: disconnecting, resource recovery, and pollution control.

PubMed

Wang, Jianbo; Xu, Zhenming

2015-01-20

Over the past decades, China has been suffering from negative environmental impacts from distempered e-waste recycling activities. After a decade of effort, disassembly and raw materials recycling of environmentally friendly e-waste have been realized in specialized companies, in China, and law enforcement for illegal activities of e-waste recycling has also been made more and more strict. So up to now, the e-waste recycling in China should be developed toward more depth and refinement to promote industrial production of e-waste resource recovery. Waste printed circuit boards (WPCBs), which are the most complex, hazardous, and valuable components of e-waste, are selected as one typical example in this article that reviews the status of related regulations and technologies of WPCBs recycling, then optimizes, and integrates the proper approaches in existence, while the bottlenecks in the WPCBs recycling system are analyzed, and some preliminary experiments of pinch technologies are also conducted. Finally, in order to provide directional guidance for future development of WPCBs recycling, some key points in the WPCBs recycling system are proposed to point towards a future trend in the e-waste recycling industry.

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D.

2015-08-19

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidatemore » inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.« less

Understanding STAT3 signaling in cardiac ischemia.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, K E; Breen, E P; Gallagher, H C; Buggy, D J; Hurley, J P

2016-05-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. It remains one of the greatest challenges to global health and will continue to dominate mortality trends in the future. Acute myocardial infarction results in 7.4 million deaths globally per annum. Current management strategies are centered on restoration of coronary blood flow via percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting and administration of anti-platelet agents. Such myocardial reperfusion accounts for 40-50 % of the final infarct size in most cases. Signaling transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) has been shown to have cardioprotective effects via canonical and non-canonical activation and modulation of mitochondrial and transcriptional responses. A significant body of in vitro and in vivo evidence suggests that activation of the STAT3 signal transduction pathway results in a cardio protective response to ischemia and attempts have been made to modulate this with therapeutic effect. Not only is STAT3 important for cardiomyocyte function, but it also modulates the cardiac microenvironment and communicates with cardiac fibroblasts. To this end, we here review the current evidence supporting the manipulation of STAT3 for therapeutic benefit in cardiac ischemia and identify areas for future research.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Get Ready 'Cause Here It Comes: The Future of Marketing Communication (Marketing Writing for Technical Products).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Janice

1995-01-01

Discusses trends for the future in marketing communication: expanding channels for communication, global marketing, product brands, and changing jobs. Suggests ways marketing communicators can prepare for these changes. (SR)

Public Support for Public Schools: The Past, the Future, and the Federal Role.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piele, Philip K.

1983-01-01

Various indices of public support for the schools--school finance voting patterns, public opinion polls, and court litigation--are analyzed to document current trends. Two possible scenarios are forecast for the future, based on socioeconomic and demographic patterns. The need for future government support is stressed. (PP)

Envisioning the Future of Special Education Personnel Preparation in a Standards-Based Era

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leko, Melinda M.; Brownell, Mary T.; Sindelar, Paul T.; Kiely, Mary Theresa

2015-01-01

The authors consider the future of special education personnel preparation by responding to an overarching question: "What frameworks might teacher educators use as a basis to promote special education teacher effective performance now and in the future?" In answering this question, they summarize current trends in the context of…

ED QUEST: A Model Procedure for Futures Planning in Educational Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Charles F.

Most educational planning models are weak at identifying future events and assessing their impact on education. At best they assume a surprise-free future in which present trends continue unabated and interrelationships among social, economic, political, and technological forces stay the same. The ED QUEST model was developed to ameliorate these…

The Future of Working Wisconsin. Proceedings from "The Future of Working Wisconsin" Conference (Milwaukee, Wisconsin, February 24-26, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wacker, Gabrielle Banick, Ed.

The following are among the 45 papers included in this proceedings: "Labor Force Changes in the United States: Implications for Education and Training" (Kutscher); "Industry, Employment, and Family Income: Wisconsin's Status" (Stoner); "Future Demographic and Social Trends" (Zach); "International Business in…

Working group on future trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Reeves, Randall R.; Long, Alison Kirk

1999-01-01

This working group did not divide into subgroups, and its report consists of a unified document in a format somewhat different than those of the other working groups. The group considered four major topics: (1) projected "new" contaminants of future concern; (2) future trends with contaminants currently known to be issues for marine mammals; (3) future needs to improve and insure consistency of sample collection and analyses; and (4) future management needs.The problems of persistent organic pollutants will remain well into the foreseeable future. A general decline in levels of persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment is not anticipated. there is every likelihood that the environmental trends of halogenated organic compounds, such as polybromated diphenyl ethers and chlorinated paraffins, will parallel production trends, as demonstrated with well known chemical contaminants such as PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) and DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane). While the environmental levels of some compounds may be slowly declining, many are still within the ranges where subtle toxic effects are to be anticipated. Trends in contaminants must be placed in a regional context, and rates and directions of change are often region-specific. For example, in the Southern Hemisphere the concentrations of PCBs appear to be increasing. The rates of change of many contaminants in the Southern hemisphere are poorly known, and this region may be at future risk.Much of the research on contaminants and marine mammals has focused on the problem of persistent organochloride chemicals such as PCBs and DDT, which are a continuing and global problem. Potential problems caused by other persistent, toxic, and bioaccumulative substances (PTBSs) cannot currently be addressed due to the lack of basic information on their production, use, exposure, and effects (Environmental Protection Agency 1998). It is currently estimated that there are roughly 2400 lipophilic and persistent chemicals, of which 390 are PTBSs. In order to prevent long-term pollution from these largely unknown chemicals, chemical industries should disclose basic information on such compounds, and this information should be made widely available. This will require enhanced international cooperation, preferably within the existing framework of chemical contaminant programs, such as the Existing Chemicals Program of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1991) and the Program on persistent Organic Pollutants of the United National Environmental Programme (1998).Monitoring studies are essential to the description and understanding of pollutants. It is necessary to exploit existing analytical techniques to identify as many anthropogenic compounds as possible in marine mammal tissues in order to expand the identification of existing and new chemicals that accumulate in, and pose threats to, these species.

Popcorn Anyone? Grazing the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magee, Clare

1994-01-01

Discusses social trends outlined in the Popcorn Report (Faith Popcorn) that affect outdoor education, including constant political, cultural, and personal change and the many life roles people maintain. Most important to outdoor education are the trends of increased consumer awareness, concern with physical health and overall wellness, and the…

Employment in Appalachia: Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Theodore E.

The manufacturing industry's areal and structural growth trends were analyzed for insights into their possible future role in Appalachia's economy. Between 1950 and 1960, total manufacturing employment expanded in large-, medium-, and small-center population areas, in rates inverse to center size. However, absolute gains in employment were…

Information Literacy: Requirements of the 21st Century Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beam, Walter R.

2001-01-01

Discusses business and technology trends that affect the need for employees to have more information skills. Highlights include the globalization of commerce; competition; lower-cost digital technology; employment trends; the role of digital systems; the impact of technology; advanced information-related literacy skills; and future education…

International Trends in Heritage and Environmental Interpretation: Future Directions for Australian Research and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ballantyne, Roy; Uzzell, David

1999-01-01

In the past decade, heritage and environmental interpretation shifted from technical emphasis to social perspective, reflected in five international trends: growing concern with theory, increasing ecotourism and consequent changes in environmental interpretation, reactions to globalization (homogeneity versus uniqueness), interpretation of…

Trends in Schooling: Demography, Performance and Organization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mare, Robert D.

1981-01-01

Utilizing "Social Indicators" (1979), discusses growth and distribution of schooling in the U.S., trends in student test performance, and major organizational changes in elementary/secondary education. Comments on quality of available data and suggests improvements for future reporting of educational indicators. (Reprint of article is available…

The Future of Workforce Development--A Global Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Twigger, Anthony J.

Recent research has identified trends in the training systems of 13 countries in Africa (Egypt, Mauritius, South Africa); the Arab States (Bahrain, Jordan); Asia (Australia, Fiji, Malaysia); Eastern Europe (Albania, Slovenia); Western Europe (Ireland, Portugal); and the Mediterranean region (Malta). The trends identified are legislation;…

Goals for Postsecondary Instructional Delivery Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knapp, Stuart E.; Valentine, Carol A.

Extrapolating from the trends in postsecondary instructional delivery systems identified by Brown, Lewis and Harcleroad, this report attempts to identify how these trends might be implemented in Oregon. Separating the systems into technology-centered and people-centered, the report proposes future applications of dial access systems, self learning…

US computer research networks: Current and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

CALICE: Calibrating Plant Biodiversity in Glacier Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festi, Daniela; Cristofori, Antonella; Vernesi, Cristiano; Zerbe, Stefan; Wellstein, Camilla; Maggi, Valter; Oeggl, Klaus

2017-04-01

The objective of the project is to reconstruct plant biodiversity and its trend archived in Alpine glacier ice by pollen and eDNA (environmental DNA) during the last five decades by analyzing a 40 m ice core. For our study we chose the Adamello glacier (Trentino - Südtirol, Lombardia) because of i) the good preservation conditions for pollen and eDNA in ice, ii) the thickness of the ice cap (270m) and iii) the expected high time resolution. The biodiversity estimates gained by pollen analysis and eDNA will be validated by historical biodiversity assessments mainly based on vegetation maps, aerial photos and vegetation surveys in the catchment area of the Adamello glacier for the last five decades. This historical reconstruction of biodiversity trends will be performed on a micro-, meso- and macro-scale (5, 20-50 and 50-100 Km radius, respectively). The results will serve as a calibration data set on biodiversity for future studies, such as the second step of the coring by the POLLiCE research consortium (pollice.fmach.it). In fact, arrangements are currently been made to drill the complete ice cap and retrieve a 270 m thick core which has the potential to cover a time span of minimum 400 years up to several millennia. This second stage will extend the time scale and enable the evaluation of dissimilarity/similarity of modern biodiversity in relation to Late Holocene trends. Finally, we believe this case study has the potential to be applied in other glaciated areas to evaluate biodiversity for large regions (e.g. central Asian mountain ranges, Tibet and Tian Shan or the Andes).

Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, John C. H.; Wehner, Michael F.

2012-10-29

This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the linkmore » between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the course of the 20th century prior to the 1980s. This is based on our detection and attribution analysis of 20th century simulations done by international modeling groups as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). We repeated the same analysis with the current CMIP5 multimodel simulations, with essentially similar results. 3.Future projections of the global interhemispheric thermal gradient suggest a pronounced trend that well exceeds the 20th century range of behavior. The major cause of this trend is due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, acting in such a way as to warm the North more than the South. This result is based on our analysis of the CMIP3 and 5 simulations of future scenarios. The underlying suggestion is that tropical rainfall may concentrate more northwards in the future climate, though further research is required to more firmly establish that result.Taken together, our results shows the important role of the interhemispheric thermal gradient in determining tropical rainfall changes in the 20th century and future. Our analysis specifically highlights high-latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, as important drivers of the interhemispheric gradient over the 20th century; and anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the 21st. The PI has written a review paper in order to promote the awareness of the interhemispheric gradient amongst the climate science community.Our project was instrumental in developing the career of a postdoctoral scholar, as well as contributing to the research training of three Ph.D. candidates.« less

17 CFR 171.21 - Notice of final decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Futures Association shall promptly serve all parties, as well as the Proceedings Clerk and the Secretary... decision issued by the National Futures Association. (b) Content of the notice. At a minimum, the notice... notice. (1) If the National Futures Association issues a notice of a final decision subject to these...

17 CFR 171.21 - Notice of final decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Futures Association shall promptly serve all parties, as well as the Proceedings Clerk and the Secretary... decision issued by the National Futures Association. (b) Content of the notice. At a minimum, the notice... notice. (1) If the National Futures Association issues a notice of a final decision subject to these...

17 CFR 171.21 - Notice of final decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Futures Association shall promptly serve all parties, as well as the Proceedings Clerk and the Secretary... decision issued by the National Futures Association. (b) Content of the notice. At a minimum, the notice... notice. (1) If the National Futures Association issues a notice of a final decision subject to these...

17 CFR 171.21 - Notice of final decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Futures Association shall promptly serve all parties, as well as the Proceedings Clerk and the Secretary... decision issued by the National Futures Association. (b) Content of the notice. At a minimum, the notice... notice. (1) If the National Futures Association issues a notice of a final decision subject to these...

17 CFR 171.21 - Notice of final decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Futures Association shall promptly serve all parties, as well as the Proceedings Clerk and the Secretary... decision issued by the National Futures Association. (b) Content of the notice. At a minimum, the notice... notice. (1) If the National Futures Association issues a notice of a final decision subject to these...

Environmental Trends and Assumptions as Identified by Two-Year Community, Junior and Technical College Personnel. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, Meredith L.

A study was conducted to determine the perceptions held by two-year college personnel regarding environmental trends related to educational programs, services, resources and economic development. Questionnaires were distributed to personnel in 430 colleges in the north central United States, requesting respondents to indicate their attitudes…

What Trends Do Turkish Biology Education Studies Indicate?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topsakal, Unsal Umdu; Calik, Muammer; Cavus, Ragip

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine what trends Turkish biology education studies indicate. To achieve this aim, the researchers examined online databases of the Higher Education Council and open access archives of graduate theses in web sites of Turkish universities. Finally, totally 138 graduate theses were elicited to analyze in regard to…

The perception of nanotechnology and nanomedicine: a worldwide social media study.

PubMed

Sechi, Giovanni; Bedognetti, Davide; Sgarrella, Francesco; Van Eperen, Laura; Marincola, Francesco M; Bianco, Alberto; Delogu, Lucia Gemma

2014-07-01

We explore at a world level the awareness of nanotechnology expressed through the most popular online social media: Facebook. We aimed at identifying future trends, the most interested countries and the public perception of ethics, funding and economic issues. We found that graphene and carbon nanotubes are the most followed nanomaterials. Our poll showed that the continents with the most interest are Asia and Africa. A total of 43% would like to have a world commission regulating nanomedicine. In addition, 43% would give priority to theranostics. Over 90% believe that nanomedicine has an economic impact. Finally, we observed that the continents of living and origin of poll contributors correlated with ethic and funding opinions. This study highlights the potential of online social media to influence scientific communities, grant committees and nanotechnology companies, spreading nanotechnology awareness in emerging countries and among new generations.

Object Detection Techniques Applied on Mobile Robot Semantic Navigation

PubMed Central

Astua, Carlos; Barber, Ramon; Crespo, Jonathan; Jardon, Alberto

2014-01-01

The future of robotics predicts that robots will integrate themselves more every day with human beings and their environments. To achieve this integration, robots need to acquire information about the environment and its objects. There is a big need for algorithms to provide robots with these sort of skills, from the location where objects are needed to accomplish a task up to where these objects are considered as information about the environment. This paper presents a way to provide mobile robots with the ability-skill to detect objets for semantic navigation. This paper aims to use current trends in robotics and at the same time, that can be exported to other platforms. Two methods to detect objects are proposed, contour detection and a descriptor based technique, and both of them are combined to overcome their respective limitations. Finally, the code is tested on a real robot, to prove its accuracy and efficiency. PMID:24732101

Detection of heavy metal by paper-based microfluidics.

PubMed

Lin, Yang; Gritsenko, Dmitry; Feng, Shaolong; Teh, Yi Chen; Lu, Xiaonan; Xu, Jie

2016-09-15

Heavy metal pollution has shown great threat to the environment and public health worldwide. Current methods for the detection of heavy metals require expensive instrumentation and laborious operation, which can only be accomplished in centralized laboratories. Various microfluidic paper-based analytical devices have been developed recently as simple, cheap and disposable alternatives to conventional ones for on-site detection of heavy metals. In this review, we first summarize current development of paper-based analytical devices and discuss the selection of paper substrates, methods of device fabrication, and relevant theories in these devices. We then compare and categorize recent reports on detection of heavy metals using paper-based microfluidic devices on the basis of various detection mechanisms, such as colorimetric, fluorescent, and electrochemical methods. To finalize, the future development and trend in this field are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

The 4th Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference, 5-9 April 2014, Florence, Italy: a summary of topics and trends.

PubMed

Abayomi, Olukayode; Amato, Davide; Bailey, Candace; Bitanihirwe, Byron; Bowen, Lynneice; Burshtein, Shimon; Cullen, Alexis; Fusté, Montserrat; Herrmann, Ana P; Khodaie, Babak; Kilian, Sanja; Lang, Qortni A; Manning, Elizabeth E; Massuda, Raffael; Nurjono, Milawaty; Sadiq, Sarosh; Sanchez-Gutierrez, Teresa; Sheinbaum, Tamara; Shivakumar, Venkataram; Simon, Nicholas; Spiteri-Staines, Anneliese; Sirijit, Suttajit; Toftdahl, Nanna Gilliam; Wadehra, Sunali; Wang, Yi; Wigton, Rebekah; Wright, Susan; Yagoda, Sergey; Zaytseva, Yuliya; O'Shea, Anne; DeLisi, Lynn E

2014-11-01

The 4th Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference was held in Florence, Italy, April 5-9, 2014 and this year had as its emphasis, "Fostering Collaboration in Schizophrenia Research". Student travel awardees served as rapporteurs for each oral session, summarized the important contributions of each session and then each report was integrated into a final summary of data discussed at the entire conference by topic. It is hoped that by combining data from different presentations, patterns of interest will emerge and thus lead to new progress for the future. In addition, the following report provides an overview of the conference for those who were present, but could not participate in all sessions, and those who did not have the opportunity to attend, but who would be interested in an update on current investigations ongoing in the field of schizophrenia research. Published by Elsevier B.V.

THE 4th SCHIZOPHRENIA INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY CONFERENCE, 5–9 APRIL 2014, FLORENCE, ITALY: A summary of topics and trends

PubMed Central

Abayomi, Olukayode; Amato, Davide; Bailey, Candace; Bitanihirwe, Byron; Bowen, Lynneice; Burshtein, Shimon; Cullen, Alexis; Fusté, Montserrat; Herrmann, Ana P; Khodaie, Babak; Kilian, Sanja; Lang, Qortni A; Manning, Elizabeth E; Massuda, Raffael; Nurjono, Milawaty; Sadiq, Sarosh; Sanchez-Gutierrez, Teresa; Sheinbaum, Tamara; Shivakumar, Venkataram; Simon, Nicholas; Spiteri-Staines, Anneliese; Sirijit, Suttajit; Toftdahl, Nanna Gilliam; Wadehra, Sunali; Wang, Yi; Wigton, Rebekah; Wright, Susan; Yagoda, Sergey; Zaytseva, Yuliya; O’Shea, Anne; DeLisi, Lynn E.

2015-01-01

The 4th Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference was held in Florence, Italy, April 5–9, 2014.and this year had as its emphasis, “Fostering Collaboration in Schizophrenia Research”. Student travel awardees served as rapporteurs for each oral session, summarized the important contributions of each session and then each report was integrated into a final summary of data discussed at the entire conference by topic. It is hoped that by combining data from different presentations, patterns of interest will emerge and thus lead to new progress for the future. In addition, the following report provides an overview of the conference for those who were present, but could not participate in all sessions, and those who did not have the opportunity to attend, but who would be interested in an update on current investigations ongoing in the field of schizophrenia research. PMID:25306204

Design of Control Plane Architecture Based on Cloud Platform and Experimental Network Demonstration for Multi-domain SDON

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming; Yin, Hongxi; Xing, Fangyuan; Wang, Jingchao; Wang, Honghuan

2016-02-01

With the features of network virtualization and resource programming, Software Defined Optical Network (SDON) is considered as the future development trend of optical network, provisioning a more flexible, efficient and open network function, supporting intraconnection and interconnection of data centers. Meanwhile cloud platform can provide powerful computing, storage and management capabilities. In this paper, with the coordination of SDON and cloud platform, a multi-domain SDON architecture based on cloud control plane has been proposed, which is composed of data centers with database (DB), path computation element (PCE), SDON controller and orchestrator. In addition, the structure of the multidomain SDON orchestrator and OpenFlow-enabled optical node are proposed to realize the combination of centralized and distributed effective management and control platform. Finally, the functional verification and demonstration are performed through our optical experiment network.

The role of nanotechnology in single-cell detection: a review.

PubMed

Wang, Changling; Zhang, Yuxiang; Xia, Mingdian; Zhu, Xingxi; Qi, Shitao; Shen, Huaqiang; Liu, Tiebing; Tang, Liming

2014-10-01

Biological processes in single cells, such as signal transduction, DNA duplication, and protein synthesis and trafficking, occur in subcellular compartments at nanoscale level. Achieving high spatial-temporal resolution, high sensitivity, and high specificity in single-cell detection poses a great challenge. Nanotechnology, which has been widely applied in the fields of medicine, electronics, biomaterials, and energy production, has the potential to provide solutions for single-cell detection. Here we present a review of the use of nanotechnology in single-cell detection over the past two decades. First, we review the main areas of scientific interest, including morphology, ion concentration, DNA, RNA, protein, intracellular temperature, elements, and mechanical properties. Second, four categories of application of nanotechnology to single-cell detection are described: nanomanipulation, nanodevices, nanomaterials as labels, and nano Secondary ion mass spectrometry. Finally, the prospects and future trends in single-cell detection and analysis are discussed.

Game Theory for Wireless Sensor Networks: A Survey

PubMed Central

Shi, Hai-Yan; Wang, Wan-Liang; Kwok, Ngai-Ming; Chen, Sheng-Yong

2012-01-01

Game theory (GT) is a mathematical method that describes the phenomenon of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers. In particular, the theory has been proven very useful in the design of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). This article surveys the recent developments and findings of GT, its applications in WSNs, and provides the community a general view of this vibrant research area. We first introduce the typical formulation of GT in the WSN application domain. The roles of GT are described that include routing protocol design, topology control, power control and energy saving, packet forwarding, data collection, spectrum allocation, bandwidth allocation, quality of service control, coverage optimization, WSN security, and other sensor management tasks. Then, three variations of game theory are described, namely, the cooperative, non-cooperative, and repeated schemes. Finally, existing problems and future trends are identified for researchers and engineers in the field. PMID:23012533

Ozone depleting substances: a key forcing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Polvani, L. M.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.; Randel, W. J.

2017-12-01

In contrast with monotonically-increasing greenhouse gases (GHG), Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) peak approximately on the year 2000 and decrease thereafter, thanks to the Montreal Protocol. We examine the influence of these anthropogenic emissions on the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) using specifically designed runs of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM). Consistent with previous works, we find a dominant role of ODSs on the observed BDC acceleration up to 2000 in the SH summer, through dynamical changes induced by the ozone hole. We extend the analyses to quantify the influence of ODSs on the BDC for different regions and seasons, and compare the model results to observational estimates. Finally, we show that ODSs will substantially reduce the GHG-induced BDC acceleration in the future. Specifically, the trends in stratospheric mean age of air will be 4 times smaller in the period 2000-2080 as compared to the period 1965-2000.

Civic Engagement of Older Adults in Mainland China.

PubMed

Chen, Haiping; Adamek, Margaret

2017-07-01

Due to great challenges resulting from China's rapid population aging, Chinese elders are mobilized to address problems caused by this demographic trend through civic engagement. Based on an integrative review of policy, research, and practice, this article reveals that today's Chinese elders have a higher level and wider scope of civic engagement than previous cohorts. A set of factors contributing to such improvement are further identified, including the reform of the national economy, transformation of governmental functions, and the use of effective strategies applied to concrete programs. However, several constraints limiting Chinese elders' equal, active engagement in civic life remain, including the social stratification of older adults, preferential selection of participants due to the nation's socioeconomic development strategy, and family care work competing with other types of civic activities. Finally, future directions for policy, research, and practice are proposed in order to increase Chinese elders' civic engagement.

Crowdsourcing in biomedicine: challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

Khare, Ritu; Good, Benjamin M.; Leaman, Robert; Su, Andrew I.

2016-01-01

The use of crowdsourcing to solve important but complex problems in biomedical and clinical sciences is growing and encompasses a wide variety of approaches. The crowd is diverse and includes online marketplace workers, health information seekers, science enthusiasts and domain experts. In this article, we review and highlight recent studies that use crowdsourcing to advance biomedicine. We classify these studies into two broad categories: (i) mining big data generated from a crowd (e.g. search logs) and (ii) active crowdsourcing via specific technical platforms, e.g. labor markets, wikis, scientific games and community challenges. Through describing each study in detail, we demonstrate the applicability of different methods in a variety of domains in biomedical research, including genomics, biocuration and clinical research. Furthermore, we discuss and highlight the strengths and limitations of different crowdsourcing platforms. Finally, we identify important emerging trends, opportunities and remaining challenges for future crowdsourcing research in biomedicine. PMID:25888696

Evaluation of the effect of process variables on the fatty acid profile of single cell oil produced by Mortierella using solid-state fermentation.

PubMed

Asadi, Seyedeh Zeinab; Khosravi-Darani, Kianoush; Nikoopour, Houshang; Bakhoda, Hossein

2015-03-01

This article reviews some of the aspects of single cell oil (SCO) production using solid-state fermentation (SSF) by fungi of the genus Mortierella. This article provides an overview of the advantages of SSF for SCO formation by the aforementioned fungus and demonstrates that the content of the polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) depend on the type of fermentation media and culture conditions. Process variables that influence lipid accumulation by Mortierella spp. and the profile of the fatty acids are discussed, including incubation temperature, time, aeration, growth phase of the mycelium, particle size of the substrate, carbon to nitrogen ratio, initial moisture content and pH as well as supplementation of the substrate with nitrogen and oil. Finally, the article highlights future research trends for the scaled-up production of PUFAs in SSF.

What We Know About ADHD and Driving Risk: A Literature Review, Meta-Analysis and Critique

PubMed Central

Jerome, Laurence; Segal, Alvin; Habinski, Liat

2006-01-01

Introduction This article examines the literature on ADHD and unintentional driving injury. This literature has emerged over the last decade as part of the burgeoning epidemic of road traffic death and injury which is the number one cause of death in young adults in North America. Methods The available literature on observational outcome studies and experimental pharmacological interventions is critically reviewed. A meta-analysis of behavioral outcomes and a review of effect size of pharmacological studies are presented. Results Current data support the utility of stimulant medication in improving driving performance in younger ADHD drivers. A conceptual model of risk factors in young ADHD drivers is offered. Conclusion The current state of screening instruments for identifying high risk subjects within this clinical group is summarized along with a final section on emerging trends and future prospects for intervention. PMID:18392181

RNA Characterization by Solid-State NMR Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Yang, Yufei; Wang, Shenlin

2018-06-21

The structures of RNAs, which play critical roles in various biological processes, provide important clues and insights into the biological functions of these molecules. However, RNA structure determination remains a challenging topic. In recent years, magic-angle-spinning solid-state NMR (MAS SSNMR) has emerged as an alternative technique for structural and dynamic characterization of RNA. MAS SSNMR has been successfully applied to provide atomic-level structural information about several RNA molecules and RNA-protein complexes. In this Minireview, we give an overview of recent progress in the field of MAS SSNMR based RNA structural characterization, and introduce sample preparation strategies and SSNMR spectroscopic techniques that have been incorporated to identify RNA structural elements. We also highlight a few impressive examples of RNAs that have been investigated extensively by SSNMR. Finally, we briefly discuss future technical trends in the use of MAS SSNMR to facilitate RNA structure determination. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.