How the ownership structures cause epidemics in financial markets: A network-based simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dastkhan, Hossein; Gharneh, Naser Shams

2018-02-01

Analysis of systemic risks and contagions is one of the main challenges of policy makers and researchers in the recent years. Network theory is introduced as a main approach in the modeling and simulation of financial and economic systems. In this paper, a simulation model is introduced based on the ownership network to analyze the contagion and systemic risk events. For this purpose, different network structures with different values for parameters are considered to investigate the stability of the financial system in the presence of different kinds of idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. The considered network structures include Erdos-Renyi, core-periphery, segregated and power-law networks. Moreover, the results of the proposed model are also calculated for a real ownership network. The results show that the network structure has a significant effect on the probability and the extent of contagion in the financial systems. For each network structure, various values for the parameters results in remarkable differences in the systemic risk measures. The results of real case show that the proposed model is appropriate in the analysis of systemic risk and contagion in financial markets, identification of systemically important firms and estimation of market loss when the initial failures occur. This paper suggests a new direction in the modeling of contagion in the financial markets, in particular that the effects of new kinds of financial exposure are clarified. This paper's idea and analytical results may also be useful for the financial policy makers, portfolio managers and the firms to conduct their investment in the right direction.

GASB and Its New Financial Reporting Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bean, David R.

1998-01-01

The Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) recently crafted a new dual-perspective financial reporting model. In their tentative conclusions concerning model elements, the board started with the new management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) letter, continued with the new entrywide statements, and then moved to the more familiar…

A Theory of Hospital Financial Analysis

PubMed Central

Elnicki, Richard A.

1969-01-01

The problem of determining the financial status of a group of hospitals was posed by the Connecticut Regional Medical Program in 1967 with the question: Are Connecticut's general hospitals financially healthy? The economist assigned to explore the question here describes the economic concepts and the methodology from which models applicable to voluntary hospitals were developed, utilizing the accepted modes of analysis and standards of for-profit business. The basic index of financial health investigated is self-sufficiency, with plant liquidation, revenue control and the role of private payors, and cost control studied as factors affecting the financial status of hospitals. PMID:5799485

Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

2016-11-01

Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

The consentaneous model of the financial markets exhibiting spurious nature of long-range memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontis, V.; Kononovicius, A.

2018-09-01

It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect. Earlier we have proposed the consentaneous model of the financial markets based on the non-linear stochastic differential equations. The consentaneous model successfully reproduces empirical probability and power spectral densities of volatility. This approach is qualitatively different from models built using fractional Brownian motion. In this contribution we investigate burst and inter-burst duration statistics of volatility in the financial markets employing the consentaneous model. Our analysis provides an evidence that empirical statistical properties of burst and inter-burst duration can be explained by non-linear stochastic differential equations driving the volatility in the financial markets. This serves as an strong argument that long-range memory in finance can have spurious nature.

Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2013-08-01

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits "volatility clustering" also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics.

Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

2017-06-01

We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

Analytical review based on statistics on good and poor financial performance of LPD in Bangli regency.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasa, I. B. A.; Parnata, I. K.; Susilawati, N. L. N. A. S.

2018-01-01

This study aims to apply analytical review model to analyze the influence of GCG, accounting conservatism, financial distress models and company size on good and poor financial performance of LPD in Bangli Regency. Ordinal regression analysis is used to perform analytical review, so that obtained the influence and relationship between variables to be considered further audit. Respondents in this study were LPDs in Bangli Regency, which amounted to 159 LPDs of that number 100 LPDs were determined as randomly selected samples. The test results found GCG and company size have a significant effect on both the good and poor financial performance, while the conservatism and financial distress model has no significant effect. The influence of the four variables on the overall financial performance of 58.8%, while the remaining 41.2% influenced by other variables. Size, FDM and accounting conservatism are variables, which are further recommended to be audited.

Using Enrollment Demand Models in Institutional Pricing Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiler, William C.

1984-01-01

Issues in the application of enrollment demand analysis to institutions' pricing policy are discussed, including price change impact on enrollment, the role of enrollment demand models on long-range financial and personnel planning, use of tuition and financial aid policy in optimizing policymakers' enrollment objectives, and the redistribution…

Structure and Connectivity Analysis of Financial Complex System Based on G-Causality Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chuan-Ming; Yan, Yan; Zhu, Xiao-Wu; Li, Xiao-Teng; Chen, Xiao-Song

2013-11-01

The recent financial crisis highlights the inherent weaknesses of the financial market. To explore the mechanism that maintains the financial market as a system, we study the interactions of U.S. financial market from the network perspective. Applied with conditional Granger causality network analysis, network density, in-degree and out-degree rankings are important indicators to analyze the conditional causal relationships among financial agents, and further to assess the stability of U.S. financial systems. It is found that the topological structure of G-causality network in U.S. financial market changed in different stages over the last decade, especially during the recent global financial crisis. Network density of the G-causality model is much higher during the period of 2007-2009 crisis stage, and it reaches the peak value in 2008, the most turbulent time in the crisis. Ranked by in-degrees and out-degrees, insurance companies are listed in the top of 68 financial institutions during the crisis. They act as the hubs which are more easily influenced by other financial institutions and simultaneously influence others during the global financial disturbance.

Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

2015-02-01

Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-04-01

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

Multiscale volatility duration characteristics on financial multi-continuum percolation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Min; Wang, Jun

A random stock price model based on the multi-continuum percolation system is developed to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of stock price volatility duration, in an attempt to explain various statistical facts found in financial data, and have a deeper understanding of mechanisms in the financial market. The continuum percolation system is usually referred to be a random coverage process or a Boolean model, it is a member of a class of statistical physics systems. In this paper, the multi-continuum percolation (with different values of radius) is employed to model and reproduce the dispersal of information among the investors. To testify the rationality of the proposed model, the nonlinear analyses of return volatility duration series are preformed by multifractal detrending moving average analysis and Zipf analysis. The comparison empirical results indicate the similar nonlinear behaviors for the proposed model and the actual Chinese stock market.

A Financial Aid Competency Model for Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolf, Neil; Martinez, Mario

2013-01-01

This research explores the competencies that financial aid officers need to be successful in their jobs. A survey of 30 competencies was distributed to 508 financial aid officers in the Western United States. Respondents were asked to rate 30 job competencies for their relative importance and frequency of use. Using exploratory factor analysis,…

The dynamic financial distress prediction method of EBW-VSTW-SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jie; Li, Hui; Chang, Pei-Chann; He, Kai-Yu

2016-07-01

Financial distress prediction (FDP) takes important role in corporate financial risk management. Most of former researches in this field tried to construct effective static FDP (SFDP) models that are difficult to be embedded into enterprise information systems, because they are based on horizontal data-sets collected outside the modelling enterprise by defining the financial distress as the absolute conditions such as bankruptcy or insolvency. This paper attempts to propose an approach for dynamic evaluation and prediction of financial distress based on the entropy-based weighting (EBW), the support vector machine (SVM) and an enterprise's vertical sliding time window (VSTW). The dynamic FDP (DFDP) method is named EBW-VSTW-SVM, which keeps updating the FDP model dynamically with time goes on and only needs the historic financial data of the modelling enterprise itself and thus is easier to be embedded into enterprise information systems. The DFDP method of EBW-VSTW-SVM consists of four steps, namely evaluation of vertical relative financial distress (VRFD) based on EBW, construction of training data-set for DFDP modelling according to VSTW, training of DFDP model based on SVM and DFDP for the future time point. We carry out case studies for two listed pharmaceutical companies and experimental analysis for some other companies to simulate the sliding of enterprise vertical time window. The results indicated that the proposed approach was feasible and efficient to help managers improve corporate financial management.

A break-even analysis of optimum faculty assignment for ambulatory primary care training.

PubMed

Xakellis, G C; Gjerde, C L; Xakellis, M G; Klitgaard, D

1996-12-01

The increased demand that faculty teach residents in ambulatory clinics necessitates the development of ambulatory care teaching models that are both educationally effective and financially viable. This study was designed to identify the resident-to-faculty ratios needed to provide financially viable faculty supervision of residents while maintaining acceptable resident waiting times for teaching. A computer simulation was developed to estimate the number of residents one or two faculty teachers could supervise in a university-based primary care teaching clinic. The number of residents was calculated for three waiting-time constraints and three scenarios of faculty tasks. A financial analysis of each model was performed. With no non-teaching tasks, two teachers were able to supervise 11 residents and keep waiting times under two minutes, while one teacher was able to supervise only three residents with this waiting-time constraint. The financial break-even point was achieved by all of the two-teacher models, but by none of the one-teacher models. In all three scenarios, using two teachers resulted in more than double the number of residents supervised and in higher utilization of faculty time (higher productivity) than did using one teacher. The two-teacher models of ambulatory supervision allowed for sufficient numbers of residents to be supervised so that teaching costs could be covered from patient care revenues; the one-teacher models did not break even financially. These simulations offer a viable option for academic institutions that are struggling to maintain teaching quality in the face of financial constraints.

Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Fernando F.; Francisco, Gerson; Machado, Birajara S.; Muruganandam, Paulsamy

2003-04-01

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary.

Localization in covariance matrices of coupled heterogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barucca, Paolo

2014-12-01

We define a random-matrix ensemble given by the infinite-time covariance matrices of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes at different temperatures coupled by a Gaussian symmetric matrix. The spectral properties of this ensemble are shown to be in qualitative agreement with some stylized facts of financial markets. Through the presented model formulas are given for the analysis of heterogeneous time series. Furthermore evidence for a localization transition in eigenvectors related to small and large eigenvalues in cross-correlations analysis of this model is found, and a simple explanation of localization phenomena in financial time series is provided. Finally we identify both in our model and in real financial data an inverted-bell effect in correlation between localized components and their local temperature: high- and low-temperature components are the most localized ones.

The Three Rs of Education Finance Reform: Re-Thinking, Re-Tooling, and Re-Evaluating School-Site Information.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Speakman, Sheree T.; And Others

1997-01-01

Examines the need for new financial reporting and analysis, starting with rethinking the school finance field, retooling the management information systems for school finance, and re-evaluating knowledge about school-site management, accounting, and reporting. Demonstrates a new reporting methodology, the Financial Analysis Model, that traces…

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazola, L.; Fernandes, C.; Pizzinga, A.; Riera, R.

2008-02-01

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Analyzing the Long Term Cohesive Effect of Sector Specific Driving Forces.

PubMed

Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Zhang, Xin; Shapira, Yoash

2016-01-01

Financial markets are partially composed of sectors dominated by external driving forces, such as commodity prices, infrastructure and other indices. We characterize the statistical properties of such sectors and present a novel model for the coupling of the stock prices and their dominating driving forces, inspired by mean reverting stochastic processes. Using the model we were able to explain the market sectors' long term behavior and estimate the coupling strength between stocks in financial markets and the sector specific driving forces. Notably, the analysis was successfully applied to the shipping market, in which the Baltic dry index (BDI), an assessment of the price of transporting the major raw materials by sea, influences the shipping financial market. We also present the analysis of other sectors-the gold mining market and the food production market, for which the model was also successfully applied. The model can serve as a general tool for characterizing the coupling between external forces and affected financial variables and therefore for estimating the risk in sectors and their vulnerability to external stress.

Analyzing the Long Term Cohesive Effect of Sector Specific Driving Forces

PubMed Central

Berman, Yonatan; Zhang, Xin; Shapira, Yoash

2016-01-01

Financial markets are partially composed of sectors dominated by external driving forces, such as commodity prices, infrastructure and other indices. We characterize the statistical properties of such sectors and present a novel model for the coupling of the stock prices and their dominating driving forces, inspired by mean reverting stochastic processes. Using the model we were able to explain the market sectors’ long term behavior and estimate the coupling strength between stocks in financial markets and the sector specific driving forces. Notably, the analysis was successfully applied to the shipping market, in which the Baltic dry index (BDI), an assessment of the price of transporting the major raw materials by sea, influences the shipping financial market. We also present the analysis of other sectors—the gold mining market and the food production market, for which the model was also successfully applied. The model can serve as a general tool for characterizing the coupling between external forces and affected financial variables and therefore for estimating the risk in sectors and their vulnerability to external stress. PMID:27031230

Irregularity, volatility, risk, and financial market time series

PubMed Central

Pincus, Steve; Kalman, Rudolf E.

2004-01-01

The need to assess subtle, potentially exploitable changes in serial structure is paramount in the analysis of financial data. Herein, we demonstrate the utility of approximate entropy (ApEn), a model-independent measure of sequential irregularity, toward this goal, by several distinct applications. We consider both empirical data and models, including composite indices (Standard and Poor's 500 and Hang Seng), individual stock prices, the random-walk hypothesis, and the Black–Scholes and fractional Brownian motion models. Notably, ApEn appears to be a potentially useful marker of system stability, with rapid increases possibly foreshadowing significant changes in a financial variable. PMID:15358860

A comment on measuring the Hurst exponent of financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couillard, Michel; Davison, Matt

2005-03-01

A fundamental hypothesis of quantitative finance is that stock price variations are independent and can be modeled using Brownian motion. In recent years, it was proposed to use rescaled range analysis and its characteristic value, the Hurst exponent, to test for independence in financial time series. Theoretically, independent time series should be characterized by a Hurst exponent of 1/2. However, finite Brownian motion data sets will always give a value of the Hurst exponent larger than 1/2 and without an appropriate statistical test such a value can mistakenly be interpreted as evidence of long term memory. We obtain a more precise statistical significance test for the Hurst exponent and apply it to real financial data sets. Our empirical analysis shows no long-term memory in some financial returns, suggesting that Brownian motion cannot be rejected as a model for price dynamics.

Global and Local Approaches Describing Critical Phenomena on the Developing and Developed Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grech, Dariusz

We define and confront global and local methods to analyze the financial crash-like events on the financial markets from the critical phenomena point of view. These methods are based respectively on the analysis of log-periodicity and on the local fractal properties of financial time series in the vicinity of phase transitions (crashes). The log-periodicity analysis is made in a daily time horizon, for the whole history (1991-2008) of Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) connected with the largest developing financial market in Europe. We find that crash-like events on the Polish financial market are described better by the log-divergent price model decorated with log-periodic behavior than by the power-law-divergent price model usually discussed in log-periodic scenarios for developed markets. Predictions coming from log-periodicity scenario are verified for all main crashes that took place in WIG history. It is argued that crash predictions within log-periodicity model strongly depend on the amount of data taken to make a fit and therefore are likely to contain huge inaccuracies. Next, this global analysis is confronted with the local fractal description. To do so, we provide calculation of the so-called local (time dependent) Hurst exponent H loc for the WIG time series and for main US stock market indices like DJIA and S&P 500. We point out dependence between the behavior of the local fractal properties of financial time series and the crashes appearance on the financial markets. We conclude that local fractal method seems to work better than the global approach - both for developing and developed markets. The very recent situation on the market, particularly related to the Fed intervention in September 2007 and the situation immediately afterwards is also analyzed within fractal approach. It is shown in this context how the financial market evolves through different phases of fractional Brownian motion. Finally, the current situation on American market is analyzed in fractal language. This is to show how far we still are from the end of recession and from the beginning of a new boom on US financial market or on other world leading stocks.

Revenue Potential for Inpatient IR Consultation Services: A Financial Model.

PubMed

Misono, Alexander S; Mueller, Peter R; Hirsch, Joshua A; Sheridan, Robert M; Siddiqi, Assad U; Liu, Raymond W

2016-05-01

Interventional radiology (IR) has historically failed to fully capture the value of evaluation and management services in the inpatient setting. Understanding financial benefits of a formally incorporated billing discipline may yield meaningful insights for interventional practices. A revenue modeling tool was created deploying standard financial modeling techniques, including sensitivity and scenario analyses. Sensitivity analysis calculates revenue fluctuation related to dynamic adjustment of discrete variables. In scenario analysis, possible future scenarios as well as revenue potential of different-size clinical practices are modeled. Assuming a hypothetical inpatient IR consultation service with a daily patient census of 35 patients and two new consults per day, the model estimates annual charges of $2.3 million and collected revenue of $390,000. Revenues are most sensitive to provider billing documentation rates and patient volume. A range of realistic scenarios-from cautious to optimistic-results in a range of annual charges of $1.8 million to $2.7 million and a collected revenue range of $241,000 to $601,000. Even a small practice with a daily patient census of 5 and 0.20 new consults per day may expect annual charges of $320,000 and collected revenue of $55,000. A financial revenue modeling tool is a powerful adjunct in understanding economics of an inpatient IR consultation service. Sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrate a wide range of revenue potential and uncover levers for financial optimization. Copyright © 2016 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphic analysis and multifractal on percolation-based return interval series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, A. Q.; Wang, J.

2015-05-01

A financial time series model is developed and investigated by the oriented percolation system (one of the statistical physics systems). The nonlinear and statistical behaviors of the return interval time series are studied for the proposed model and the real stock market by applying visibility graph (VG) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We investigate the fluctuation behaviors of return intervals of the model for different parameter settings, and also comparatively study these fluctuation patterns with those of the real financial data for different threshold values. The empirical research of this work exhibits the multifractal features for the corresponding financial time series. Further, the VGs deviated from both of the simulated data and the real data show the behaviors of small-world, hierarchy, high clustering and power-law tail for the degree distributions.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also definedmore » in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.« less

Improving financial performance by modeling and analysis of radiology procedure scheduling at a large community hospital.

PubMed

Lu, Lingbo; Li, Jingshan; Gisler, Paula

2011-06-01

Radiology tests, such as MRI, CT-scan, X-ray and ultrasound, are cost intensive and insurance pre-approvals are necessary to get reimbursement. In some cases, tests may be denied for payments by insurance companies due to lack of pre-approvals, inaccurate or missing necessary information. This can lead to substantial revenue losses for the hospital. In this paper, we present a simulation study of a centralized scheduling process for outpatient radiology tests at a large community hospital (Central Baptist Hospital in Lexington, Kentucky). Based on analysis of the central scheduling process, a simulation model of information flow in the process has been developed. Using such a model, the root causes of financial losses associated with errors and omissions in this process were identified and analyzed, and their impacts were quantified. In addition, "what-if" analysis was conducted to identify potential process improvement strategies in the form of recommendations to the hospital leadership. Such a model provides a quantitative tool for continuous improvement and process control in radiology outpatient test scheduling process to reduce financial losses associated with process error. This method of analysis is also applicable to other departments in the hospital.

Financial strain, social relations, and psychological distress among older people: a cross-cultural analysis.

PubMed

Ferraro, K F; Su, Y

1999-01-01

This article examines how financial strain and social relations may independently and jointly influence psychological distress among older people in four nations. Data from four Western Pacific nations (N = 3,277) are used to test additive and multiplicative models of the relationships between financial strain, social relations, and psychological distress. Financial strain is associated with higher levels of psychological distress in three of the four nations. Interactive models of the effects of financial strain and social relations on distress were uncovered in three of the four nations, but the type of social relation influencing the strain-distress relationship varied. Subjective-health and IADLs were significant predictors of psychological distress in all four nations. Findings suggest that although financial strain is quite likely to lead to psychological distress among elders, this can be mitigated, at least in part, by social relationships. Modernization was not associated with higher psychological distress.

FY16 Analysis report: Financial systems dependency on communications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyeler, Walter E.

Within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis (OCIA)'s National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) develops capabilities to support the DHS mission and the resilience of the Nation’s critical infrastructure. At Sandia National Laboratories, under DHS/OCIA direction, NISAC is developing models of financial sector dependence on communications. This capability is designed to improve DHS's ability to assess potential impacts of communication disruptions to major financial services and the effectiveness of possible mitigations. This report summarizes findings and recommendations from the application of that capability as part of the FY2016 NISAC program plan.

Students' Production of Curricular Knowledge: Perspectives on Empowerment in Financial Capability Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farnsworth, Valerie; Davis, Pauline; Kalambouka, Afroditi; Ralph, Susan; Shi, Xin; Farrell, Peter

2011-01-01

The aim of this article is to extend our understanding of the relationship between knowledge of personal finance and empowerment. The analysis is based on interview data obtained as part of a longitudinal study of students, aged 16-19, who completed a financial capability course in the UK. The analysis presents a set of cultural models or…

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

Financial Preparation for Retirement in Brazil: a Cross-Cultural Test of the Interdisciplinary Financial Planning Model.

PubMed

França, Lucia H F; Hershey, Douglas A

2018-03-01

In this investigation, we attempt to replicate the Interdisciplinary Financial Planning Model advanced by Hershey et al. (International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 70, 1-38, 2010) using a sample of Brazilian adults. This model, which was originally tested on individuals from The Netherlands and the United States, posits that psychological, social, and economic forces are key determinants of retirement planning practices and perceptions of saving adequacy. Taken together, fifteen hypotheses were subject to evaluation. Participants were 167 Brazilian working adults, 21-69 years of age, who were married or cohabitating at the time of testing. A path analysis model showed substantial support for the theoretical framework, with all variables found to contribute directly or indirectly to the prediction of financial planning and saving adequacy. Furthermore, two new paths were found to emerge in the Brazilian model that were not observed in the original investigation. This cross-national replication of the Interdisciplinary Financial Planning Model extends research on the topic to a developing country in which relatively few empirical studies of retirement planning have been carried out. Other analyses in the article focus on direct comparisons between the Brazilian model and the models developed based on American and Dutch respondents, with an eye toward better understanding how cultural forces shape the retirement planning process. The discussion focuses on how models of financial planning, such as the Hershey et al. (2010) model, can inform the development of savings-oriented education and intervention programs.

An Economic Analysis and Approach for Health Care Preparedness in a Substate Region.

PubMed

Stryckman, Benoit; Grace, Thomas L; Schwarz, Peter; Marcozzi, David

2015-08-01

To demonstrate the application of economics to health care preparedness by estimating the financial return on investment in a substate regional emergency response team and to develop a financial model aimed at sustaining community-level disaster readiness. Economic evaluation methods were applied to the experience of a regional Pennsylvania response capability. A cost-benefit analysis was performed by using information on funding of the response team and 17 real-world events the team responded to between 2008 and 2013. By use of the results of the cost-benefit analysis as well as information on the response team's catchment area, a risk-based insurance-like membership model was built. The cost-benefit analysis showed a positive return after 6 years of investment in the regional emergency response team. Financial modeling allowed for the calculation of premiums for 2 types of providers within the emergency response team's catchment area: hospitals and long-term care facilities. The analysis indicated that preparedness activities have a positive return on their investment in this substate region. By applying economic principles, communities can estimate their return on investment to make better business decisions in an effort to increase the sustainability of emergency preparedness programs at the regional level.

A cross-disciplinary assessment of student loans debt, financial support for study and career preferences upon graduation.

PubMed

Webster, Craig S; Ling, Christopher; Barrow, Mark; Poole, Phillippa; Henning, Marcus

2017-07-21

To explore relationships between student loans debt, financial support and career preferences upon graduation for all healthcare disciplines offered at the Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland. The Faculty Tracking Project is a longitudinal study which invites students to complete a questionnaire at the beginning and end of their educational programmes, including questions on debt, financial support and career preference. Our analysis comprised three phases: (1) a descriptive analysis of data related to debt and financial support; (2) a principal component analysis in order to find related categories of career choice; and (3) logistic regression models to determine how career preference categories could be explained by either levels of student loans debt or financial support. Data from 2,405 participating students were included. Students in health sciences, nursing and pharmacy typically accrue levels of student loans debt of around $15,000 to $29,999, while optometry students accrue debt around $15,000 higher. Medical students show debt distributed around modes of $0 and $90,000 or more. All students typically access three sources of financial support during study. Career preferences at graduation reduced to four categories for all health disciplines. We found five significant effects, involving students in health sciences, medicine and pharmacy, relating the number of sources of financial support to the four categories of career preference. No significant effects were found related to level of student loans debt. Our results suggest that financial support is a more strongly determining factor in career choices than the level of student loans debt. The four-category framework for student career preferences appears to be a useful model for further research.

Financial and risk considerations for successful disease management programs.

PubMed

Baldwin, A L

1999-11-01

Results for disease management [DM] programs have not been as positive as hoped because of clinical issues, lack of access to capital, and administrative issues. The financial experience of DM programs can be quite volatile. Financial projections that are protocol-based, rather than experience-based, may understate the revenue required and the range of possible costs for a DM program by understating the impact of complicating conditions and comorbidities. Actuarial tools (risk analysis and risk projection models) support better understanding of DM contracts. In particular, these models can provide the ability to quantify the impact of the factors that drive costs of a contract and the volatility of those costs. This analysis can assist DM companies in setting appropriate revenue and capital targets. Similar analysis by health plans can identify diseases that are good candidates for DM programs and can provide the basis for performance targets.

Quality Control Analysis of Selected Aspects of Programs Administered by the Bureau of Student Financial Assistance. Error-Prone Model Derived from 1978-1979 Quality Control Study. Data Report. [Task 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saavedra, Pedro; Kuchak, JoAnn

An error-prone model (EPM) to predict financial aid applicants who are likely to misreport on Basic Educational Opportunity Grant (BEOG) applications was developed, based on interviews conducted with a quality control sample of 1,791 students during 1978-1979. The model was designed to identify corrective methods appropriate for different types of…

Competing Risks or Different Pathways? An Event History Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Aid and Educational Outcomes for Latinos

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gross, Jacob P. K.; Torres, Vasti

2010-01-01

Using a competing risks event history model this study explores the effects of differentiated forms of financial aid on the postsecondary enrollment patterns of Latino college students in Indiana. Much of the prior research on financial aid has employed cross-sectional methods, which assume that the effects of aid do not vary across time. This…

Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization

PubMed Central

Townsend, Robert M.; Ueda, Kenichi

2010-01-01

Financial liberalization has been a controversial issue, as empirical evidence for growth enhancing effects is mixed. Here, we find sizable welfare gains from liberalization (cost to repression), though the gain in economic growth is ambiguous. We take the view that financial liberalization is a government policy that alters the path of financial deepening, while financial deepening is endogenously chosen by agents given a policy and occurs in transition towards a distant steady state. This history-dependent view necessitates the use of simulation analysis based on a growth model. Our application is a specific episode: Thailand from 1976 to 1996. PMID:20806055

A method for analyzing the financial viability of a rural provider-based geriatric clinic.

PubMed

McAtee, Robin E; Beverly, Claudia J

2005-01-01

Little is known about the financial impact of rural provider-based geriatric outpatient clinics on their parent hospitals since the implementation of the outpatient prospective payment system. In this study, systems theory was used to develop a methodology for determining the financial viability of one such clinic in a rural hospital using data commonly found in rural hospital financial systems. Formulas were developed to identify the overall financial viability and a case-study model was utilized to test the formulas; however, this hospital did not track a key data element, resulting in an incomplete analysis.

Micro and macro benefits of random investments in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondo, A. E.; Pluchino, A.; Rapisarda, A.

2014-10-01

In this paper, making use of recent statistical physics techniques and models, we address the specific role of randomness in financial markets, both at the micro and the macro level. In particular, we review some recent results obtained about the effectiveness of random strategies of investment, compared with some of the most used trading strategies for forecasting the behaviour of real financial indexes. We also push forward our analysis by means of a self-organised criticality model, able to simulate financial avalanches in trading communities with different network topologies, where a Pareto-like power law behaviour of wealth spontaneously emerges. In this context, we present new findings and suggestions for policies based on the effects that random strategies can have in terms of reduction of dangerous financial extreme events, i.e. bubbles and crashes.

New approach of financial volatility duration dynamics by stochastic finite-range interacting voter system.

PubMed

Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun

2017-01-01

We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.

New approach of financial volatility duration dynamics by stochastic finite-range interacting voter system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun

2017-01-01

We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.

Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, K.

2009-11-01

Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

An Analysis of Viable Financial Negotiations Processes and Related Internal Controls for Procurement in Pakistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

regulations are in accordance with UNCITRAL Model Law and are based on principles of “ accountability , transparency, fairness, efficiency and value for... account certain factors about the firm(s) for pre-qualification. These factors include past performance and experience; financial health; managerial...internal control components, along with associated principles , were discussed in detail to develop a suitable internal control system for the financial

Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A

2018-01-01

The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results confirmed the scale's reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale's use as it was proposed. The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments.

College Student Debt and Anticipated Repayment Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Jonathan J.; Bartholomae, Suzanne; Letkiewicz, Jodi C.; Montalto, Catherine P.

2017-01-01

This study analyzes factors associated with anticipated difficulty with repayment of debt accumulated during college using a basic model of credit risk that includes socialization processes influencing college student financial decisions. The empirical analysis uses data from the 2010 Ohio Student Financial Wellness Study. Results provide evidence…

In-Depth Analysis of the JACK Model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-30

Recently, as part of a comprehensive analysis of budget and funding options, a TxDOT : special task force has examined the agencys current financial forecasting methods and has : developed a model designed to estimate future State Highway Fund rev...

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

PubMed

Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Financial Conflicts of Interest and Study Results in Environmental and Occupational Health Research.

PubMed

Friedman, Lee; Friedman, Michael

2016-03-01

To date, there is no comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial conflict of interest (COI) and a potential publication bias in environmental and occupational health studies. We analyzed original research articles published in 2012 in 17 peer-reviewed journals. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the relationship between financial COI and the study outcome. Of the 373 studies included in the analysis, 17.2% had a financial COI associated with organizations involved with the processing, use, or disposal of industrial and commercial products, and studies with this type of COI were more likely to report negative results (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 4.31), as were studies with any COI associated with the military (employment or funding; Adjusted Odds Ratio = 9.15). Our findings show a clear relationship between direction of reported findings and specific types of financial COI.

Financial Management and Control for Decision Making in Urban Local Bodies in India Using Statistical Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Sidhakam; Bandyopadhyay, Gautam

2010-10-01

The council of most of the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) has a limited scope for decision making in the absence of appropriate financial control mechanism. The information about expected amount of own fund during a particular period is of great importance for decision making. Therefore, in this paper, efforts are being made to present set of findings and to establish a model of estimating receipts of own sources and payments thereof using multiple regression analysis. Data for sixty months from a reputed ULB in West Bengal have been considered for ascertaining the regression models. This can be used as a part of financial management and control procedure by the council to estimate the effect on own fund. In our study we have considered two models using multiple regression analysis. "Model I" comprises of total adjusted receipt as the dependent variable and selected individual receipts as the independent variables. Similarly "Model II" consists of total adjusted payments as the dependent variable and selected individual payments as independent variables. The resultant of Model I and Model II is the surplus or deficit effecting own fund. This may be applied for decision making purpose by the council.

A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

2016-08-01

This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

Motivating Women to Adopt Positive Financial Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowley, Megan E.; Lown, Jean M.; Piercy, Kathleen W.

2012-01-01

In a strengths-based study, 17 women ages 25 to 54 participated in focus groups to identify their motivations for positive financial behavior change. Performing a thematic analysis of data, evidence shows they progressed through the Transtheoretical Model stages of change. Emotion, family influence, and life transitions helped participants…

User's guide: RPGrow$: a red pine growth and analysis spreadsheet for the Lake States.

Treesearch

Carol A. Hyldahl; Gerald H. Grossman

1993-01-01

Describes RPGrow$, a stand-level, interactive spreadsheet for projecting growth and yield and estimating financial returns of red pine plantations in the Lake States. This spreadsheet is based on published growth models for red pine. Financial analyses are based on discounted cash flow methods.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-07-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

Financial Data Analysis by means of Coupled Continuous-Time Random Walk in Rachev-Rűschendorf Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurlewicz, A.; Wyłomańska, A.; Żebrowski, P.

2008-09-01

We adapt the continuous-time random walk formalism to describe asset price evolution. We expand the idea proposed by Rachev and Rűschendorf who analyzed the binomial pricing model in the discrete time with randomization of the number of price changes. As a result, in the framework of the proposed model we obtain a mixture of the Gaussian and a generalized arcsine laws as the limiting distribution of log-returns. Moreover, we derive an European-call-option price that is an extension of the Black-Scholes formula. We apply the obtained theoretical results to model actual financial data and try to show that the continuous-time random walk offers alternative tools to deal with several complex issues of financial markets.

Investigation on financial crises with the negative-information-propagation-induced model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Feng-Hua; Deng, Yanbin; Huang, Yong-Chang

2017-03-01

We first argue about the similarity between the propagation phenomenon of negative information about potential deterioration of economic situation in group of investors and the propagation phenomenon of infectious disease in crowd Applying the negative-information-propagation-induced model built based on above argument, we investigate the relationship between the generation of financial crises and propagation effects of negative information We introduce the discrimination parameter to distinguish whether or not negative information will be propagated extensively in group of investors. We also introduce the target critical value of financial crises. By comparing the theoretically predicted ratio of the long term projected number of total investors to the total number of investors at some time as initial time with target critical value of financial crises, the model can provide real-time monitoring of whether the curve of total number of investors is progressing toward the direction of generating financial crises or running on track of financial markets safety. If at some time this ratio is computed to be less than the target critical value of financial crises, governments can take relevant measures to prevent the generation of financial crises in advance Governments' interference helps to recover the confidence of investors so that they never will again believe in negative information to continue their investment. Results from theoretical and numerical analysis show that the number of investors who hold the belief of potential deterioration of economic situation, and the number of investors who withdraw capital and depart from financial markets for avoiding business loss when governments make appropriate interference are lowered compared to that without appropriate governments' interference. The results show the effectiveness of governments in preventing financial crises from the viewpoint of the negative information-propagation-induced model, namely governments' prevention against financial crises can reduce the possibility of the generation of financial crises.

[Methods and Applications to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale for nurse-midwife's delivery service in the national health insurance].

PubMed

Kim, Jinhyun; Jung, Yoomi

2009-08-01

This paper analyzed alternative methods of calculating the conversion factor for nurse-midwife's delivery services in the national health insurance and estimated the optimal reimbursement level for the services. A cost accounting model and Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) model were developed to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) for nurse-midwife's services, depending on the scope of revenue considered in financial analysis. The data and sources from the government and the financial statements from nurse-midwife clinics were used in analysis. The cost accounting model and SGR model showed a 17.6-37.9% increase and 19.0-23.6% increase, respectively, in nurse-midwife fee for delivery services in the national health insurance. The SGR model measured an overall trend of medical expenditures rather than an individual financial status of nurse-midwife clinics, and the cost analysis properly estimated the level of reimbursement for nurse-midwife's services. Normal vaginal delivery in nurse-midwife clinics is considered cost-effective in terms of insurance financing. Upon a declining share of health expenditures on midwife clinics, designing a reimbursement strategy for midwife's services could be an opportunity as well as a challenge when it comes to efficient resource allocation.

Evaluation of Private Sector Roles in Space Resource Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamassoure, Elisabeth S.; Blair, Brad R.; Diaz, Javier; Oderman, Mark; Duke, Michael B.; Vaucher, Marc; Manvi, Ramachandra; Easter, Robert W.

2003-01-01

An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith. The analysis starts with careful case study definition, including an analysis of the customer base and market requirements, which are the basis for design of a modular, scalable space architecture. The derived non-recurring, recurring and operations costs become inputs for a `standard' financial model, as used in any commercial business plan. This model generates pro forma financial statements, calculates the amount of capitalization required, and generates return on equity calculations using two valuation metrics of direct interest to private investors: market enterprise value and multiples of key financial measures. Use of this model on an architecture to sell transportation services in Earth orbit based on lunar propellants shows how to rapidly test various assumptions and identify interesting architectural options, key areas for investment in exploration and technology, or innovative business approaches that could produce an economically viable industry. The same approach can be used to evaluate any other possible private ventures in space, and conclude on the respective roles of NASA and the private sector in space resource development and solar system exploration.

Volatility behavior of visibility graph EMD financial time series from Ising interacting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-08-01

A financial market dynamics model is developed and investigated by stochastic Ising system, where the Ising model is the most popular ferromagnetic model in statistical physics systems. Applying two graph based analysis and multiscale entropy method, we investigate and compare the statistical volatility behavior of return time series and the corresponding IMF series derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. And the real stock market indices are considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation data of the proposed model. Further, we find that the degree distribution of visibility graph for the simulation series has the power law tails, and the assortative network exhibits the mixing pattern property. All these features are in agreement with the real market data, the research confirms that the financial model established by the Ising system is reasonable.

Goal clarity and financial planning activities as determinants of retirement savings contributions.

PubMed

Stawski, Robert S; Hershey, Douglas A; Jacobs-Lawson, Joy M

2007-01-01

Retirement counselors, financial service professionals, and retirement intervention specialists routinely emphasize the importance of developing clear goals for the future; however, few empirical studies have focused on the benefits of retirement goal setting. In the present study, the extent to which goal clarity and financial planning activities predict retirement savings practices was examined among 100 working adults. Path analysis techniques were used to test two competing models, both of which were designed to predict savings contributions. Findings provide support for the model in which retirement goal clarity is a significant predictor of planning practices, and planning, in turn, predicts savings tendencies. Two demographic variables-income and age-were also revealed to be important elements of the model, with income accounting for roughly half of the explained variance in savings contributions. The results of this study have implications for the development of age-based models of planning, as well as implications for retirement counselors and financial planners who advise workers on long-term saving strategies.

Pricing foreign equity option under stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

2017-10-01

Considering that financial assets returns exhibit leptokurtosis, asymmetry properties as well as clustering and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper substitutes the logarithm normal jumps in Heston stochastic volatility model by the classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution and normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution to construct stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) model. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of return dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets through subordinating tempered stable process to stochastic volatility process, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns. By employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the formula for probability density function (PDF) of TSSV returns is derived, making the analytical formula for foreign equity option (FEO) pricing available. High frequency financial returns data are employed to verify the effectiveness of proposed models in reflecting the stylized facts of financial markets. Numerical analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between the corresponding parameters and the implied volatility of foreign equity option.

Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

2016-02-01

There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

Financial hardship after traumatic brain injury: a brief scale for family caregivers.

PubMed

Sabella, Scott A; Andrzejewski, Joshua H; Wallgren, Alexandrea

2018-05-02

Financial hardship is frequently posited as a significant factor influencing family health and adjustment after brain injury, though traditional methods of measurement have shown limited usefulness. The purpose of this study was to adapt and test the utility of a brief scale of financial hardship (BSFH-BI) for use with family caregivers after TBI. The researchers constructed the BSFH-BI using financial well-being items adapted from three survey instruments. The BSFH-BI questionnaire was completed by 136 family caregivers of individuals with TBIs. Scale utility was evaluated through reliability analysis, factor analysis, and correlations with a measure of life satisfaction. The factor analysis revealed that the BSFH-BI had a meaningful two factor structure consisting of items related to (a) meeting essential living expenses and (b) financial changes after the injury. The scale showed high internal consistency (α = 0.92) and moderate negative correlations with life satisfaction (r s  = -0.58). The preliminary findings indicate that the BSFH-BI can be a reliable and valid scale for use with family caregivers after TBI. The authors recommend further study of financial hardship within models of adaptation to TBI using psychometrically validated instruments such as the BSFH-BI.

Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

2016-08-01

We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

Local regression type methods applied to the study of geophysics and high frequency financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, M. C.; Basu, K.

2014-09-01

In this work we applied locally weighted scatterplot smoothing techniques (Lowess/Loess) to Geophysical and high frequency financial data. We first analyze and apply this technique to the California earthquake geological data. A spatial analysis was performed to show that the estimation of the earthquake magnitude at a fixed location is very accurate up to the relative error of 0.01%. We also applied the same method to a high frequency data set arising in the financial sector and obtained similar satisfactory results. The application of this approach to the two different data sets demonstrates that the overall method is accurate and efficient, and the Lowess approach is much more desirable than the Loess method. The previous works studied the time series analysis; in this paper our local regression models perform a spatial analysis for the geophysics data providing different information. For the high frequency data, our models estimate the curve of best fit where data are dependent on time.

Problems of Mathematical Finance by Stochastic Control Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stettner, Łukasz

The purpose of this paper is to present main ideas of mathematics of finance using the stochastic control methods. There is an interplay between stochastic control and mathematics of finance. On the one hand stochastic control is a powerful tool to study financial problems. On the other hand financial applications have stimulated development in several research subareas of stochastic control in the last two decades. We start with pricing of financial derivatives and modeling of asset prices, studying the conditions for the absence of arbitrage. Then we consider pricing of defaultable contingent claims. Investments in bonds lead us to the term structure modeling problems. Special attention is devoted to historical static portfolio analysis called Markowitz theory. We also briefly sketch dynamic portfolio problems using viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, martingale-convex analysis method or stochastic maximum principle together with backward stochastic differential equation. Finally, long time portfolio analysis for both risk neutral and risk sensitive functionals is introduced.

Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-Making Rating Scale

PubMed Central

Lichtenberg, Peter A.; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J.; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A.

2017-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. Methods A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results Results confirmed the scale’s reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. Conclusions The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale’s use as it was proposed in Lichtenberg et al., 2015. Clinical Implications The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments. PMID:29077531

High-Performance Buildings – Value, Messaging, Financial and Policy Mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Molly

At the request of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, an in-depth analysis of the rapidly evolving state of real estate investments, high-performance building technology, and interest in efficiency was conducted by HaydenTanner, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Program. The analysis objectives were • to evaluate the link between high-performance buildings and their market value • to identify core messaging to motivate owners, investors, financiers, and others in the real estate sector to appropriately value and deploy high-performance strategies and technologies across new and existing buildings • to summarize financial mechanisms that facilitate increased investment inmore » these buildings. To meet these objectives, work consisted of a literature review of relevant writings, examination of existing and emergent financial and policy mechanisms, interviews with industry stakeholders, and an evaluation of the value implications through financial modeling. This report documents the analysis methodology and findings, conclusion and recommendations. Its intent is to support and inform the DOE Building Technologies Program on policy and program planning for the financing of high-performance new buildings and building retrofit projects.« less

Variable diffusion in stock market fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Jia-Chen; Chen, Lijian; Falcon, Liberty; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2015-02-01

We analyze intraday fluctuations in several stock indices to investigate the underlying stochastic processes using techniques appropriate for processes with nonstationary increments. The five most actively traded stocks each contains two time intervals during the day where the variance of increments can be fit by power law scaling in time. The fluctuations in return within these intervals follow asymptotic bi-exponential distributions. The autocorrelation function for increments vanishes rapidly, but decays slowly for absolute and squared increments. Based on these results, we propose an intraday stochastic model with linear variable diffusion coefficient as a lowest order approximation to the real dynamics of financial markets, and to test the effects of time averaging techniques typically used for financial time series analysis. We find that our model replicates major stylized facts associated with empirical financial time series. We also find that ensemble averaging techniques can be used to identify the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas time averages fail in this task. Our work indicates that ensemble average approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets' dynamics. Our proposed model also provides new insight into the modeling of financial markets dynamics in microscopic time scales.

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardoscia, Marco; Battiston, Stefano; Caccioli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

2017-02-01

Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilize the financial system, that is, market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details.

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

PubMed Central

Bardoscia, Marco; Battiston, Stefano; Caccioli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

2017-01-01

Following the financial crisis of 2007–2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilize the financial system, that is, market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details. PMID:28221338

Pathways towards instability in financial networks.

PubMed

Bardoscia, Marco; Battiston, Stefano; Caccioli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

2017-02-21

Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilize the financial system, that is, market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details.

A financial feasibility model of gasification and anaerobic digestion waste-to-energy (WTE) plants in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Hadidi, Laith A; Omer, Mohamed Mahmoud

2017-01-01

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation in Saudi Arabia is increasingly growing at a fast rate, as it hurtles towards ever increasing urban development coupled with rapid developments and expanding population. Saudi Arabia's energy demands are also rising at a faster rate. Therefore, the importance of an integrated waste management system in Saudi Arabia is increasingly rising and introducing Waste to Energy (WTE) facilities is becoming an absolute necessity. This paper analyzes the current situation of MSW management in Saudi Arabia and proposes a financial model to assess the viability of WTE investments in Saudi Arabia in order to address its waste management challenges and meet its forecasted energy demands. The research develops a financial model to investigate the financial viability of WTE plants utilizing gasification and Anaerobic Digestion (AD) conversion technologies. The financial model provides a cost estimate of establishing both gasification and anaerobic digestion WTE plants in Saudi Arabia through a set of financial indicators, i.e. net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), modified internal rate of return (MIRR), profitability index (PI), payback period, discounted payback period, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of Waste (LCOW). Finally, the analysis of the financial model reveals the main affecting factors of the gasification plants investment decision, namely: facility generation capacity, generated electricity revenue, and the capacity factor. Similarly, the paper also identifies facility waste capacity and the capacity factor as the main affecting factors on the AD plants' investment decision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Cognitive Analysis of Credit Card Acquisition and College Student Financial Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidwell, Blair; Turrisi, Robert

2000-01-01

Examines cognitions relevant to credit card decision making in college-aged participants (N=304). Assesses measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral alternatives toward acquiring a credit card. Identifies a multivariate model predicting college student financial development of the attitudes and behavioral tendencies of acquiring a new card.…

Planning Inmarsat's second generation of spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, W. P.

1982-09-01

The next generation of studies of the Inmarsat service are outlined, such as traffic forecasting studies, communications capacity estimates, space segment design, cost estimates, and financial analysis. Traffic forecasting will require future demand estimates, and a computer model has been developed which estimates demand over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean regions. Communications estimates are based on traffic estimates, as a model converts traffic demand into a required capacity figure for a given area. The Erlang formula is used, requiring additional data such as peak hour ratios and distribution estimates. Basic space segment technical requirements are outlined (communications payload, transponder arrangements, etc), and further design studies involve such areas as space segment configuration, launcher and spacecraft studies, transmission planning, and earth segment configurations. Cost estimates of proposed design parameters will be performed, but options must be reduced to make construction feasible. Finally, a financial analysis will be carried out in order to calculate financial returns.

Game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joung, Manho

This dissertation examines game-theoretic equilibrium analysis applications to deregulated electricity markets. In particular, three specific applications are discussed: analyzing the competitive effects of ownership of financial transmission rights, developing a dynamic game model considering the ramp rate constraints of generators, and analyzing strategic behavior in electricity capacity markets. In the financial transmission right application, an investigation is made of how generators' ownership of financial transmission rights may influence the effects of the transmission lines on competition. In the second application, the ramp rate constraints of generators are explicitly modeled using a dynamic game framework, and the equilibrium is characterized as the Markov perfect equilibrium. Finally, the strategic behavior of market participants in electricity capacity markets is analyzed and it is shown that the market participants may exaggerate their available capacity in a Nash equilibrium. It is also shown that the more conservative the independent system operator's capacity procurement, the higher the risk of exaggerated capacity offers.

Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnum, George M.; Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hemez, Francois M.

2014-01-10

This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gapmore » of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously. When two models reflect past data with similar accuracy, the more robust of the two is preferable for decision-making because its predictions are, by definition, less sensitive to the uncertainty.« less

Implementation Costs of an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Program in the United States: A Financial Model and Sensitivity Analysis Based on Experiences at a Quaternary Academic Medical Center.

PubMed

Stone, Alexander B; Grant, Michael C; Pio Roda, Claro; Hobson, Deborah; Pawlik, Timothy; Wu, Christopher L; Wick, Elizabeth C

2016-03-01

Despite positive results from several international Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocols, the United States has been slow to adopt ERAS protocols, in part due to concern regarding the expenses of such a program. We sought to evaluate the potential annual net cost savings of implementing a US-based ERAS program. Using data from existing publications and experience with an ERAS program, a model of net financial costs was developed for surgical groups of escalating numbers of annual cases. Our example scenario provided a financial analysis of the implementation of an ERAS program at a United States academic institution based on data from the ERAS Program for Colorectal Surgery at The Johns Hopkins Hospital. Based on available data from the United States, ERAS programs lead to reductions in lengths of hospital stay that range from 0.7 to 2.7 days and substantial direct cost savings. Using example data from a quaternary hospital, the considerable cost of $552,783 associated with implementation of an ERAS program was offset by even greater savings in the first year of nearly $948,500, yielding a net savings of $395,717. Sensitivity analysis across several caseload and direct cost scenarios yielded similar savings in 20 of the 27 projections. Enhanced Recovery After Surgery protocols have repeatedly led to reduction in length of hospital stay and improved surgical outcomes. A financial model, based on published data and experience, projects that investment in an ERAS program can also lead to net financial savings for US hospitals. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

2018-06-01

Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

The Fusion of Financial Analysis and Seismology: Statistical Methods from Financial Market Analysis Applied to Earthquake Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohyanagi, S.; Dileonardo, C.

2013-12-01

As a natural phenomenon earthquake occurrence is difficult to predict. Statistical analysis of earthquake data was performed using candlestick chart and Bollinger Band methods. These statistical methods, commonly used in the financial world to analyze market trends were tested against earthquake data. Earthquakes above Mw 4.0 located on shore of Sanriku (37.75°N ~ 41.00°N, 143.00°E ~ 144.50°E) from February 1973 to May 2013 were selected for analysis. Two specific patterns in earthquake occurrence were recognized through the analysis. One is a spread of candlestick prior to the occurrence of events greater than Mw 6.0. A second pattern shows convergence in the Bollinger Band, which implies a positive or negative change in the trend of earthquakes. Both patterns match general models for the buildup and release of strain through the earthquake cycle, and agree with both the characteristics of the candlestick chart and Bollinger Band analysis. These results show there is a high correlation between patterns in earthquake occurrence and trend analysis by these two statistical methods. The results of this study agree with the appropriateness of the application of these financial analysis methods to the analysis of earthquake occurrence.

Random diffusion and leverage effect in financial markets.

PubMed

Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume

2003-03-01

We prove that Brownian market models with random diffusion coefficients provide an exact measure of the leverage effect [J-P. Bouchaud et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 228701 (2001)]. This empirical fact asserts that past returns are anticorrelated with future diffusion coefficient. Several models with random diffusion have been suggested but without a quantitative study of the leverage effect. Our analysis lets us to fully estimate all parameters involved and allows a deeper study of correlated random diffusion models that may have practical implications for many aspects of financial markets.

Results of research on development of an intellectual information system of bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telipenko, E.; Chernysheva, T.; Zakharova, A.; Dumchev, A.

2015-10-01

The article represents research results about the knowledge base development for the intellectual information system for the bankruptcy risk assessment of the enterprise. It is described the process analysis of the knowledge base development; the main process stages, some problems and their solutions are given. The article introduces the connectionist model for the bankruptcy risk assessment based on the analysis of industrial enterprise financial accounting. The basis for this connectionist model is a three-layer perceptron with the back propagation of error algorithm. The knowledge base for the intellectual information system consists of processed information and the processing operation method represented as the connectionist model. The article represents the structure of the intellectual information system, the knowledge base, and the information processing algorithm for neural network training. The paper shows mean values of 10 indexes for industrial enterprises; with the help of them it is possible to carry out a financial analysis of industrial enterprises and identify correctly the current situation for well-timed managerial decisions. Results are given about neural network testing on the data of both bankrupt and financially strong enterprises, which were not included into training and test sets.

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behaviors: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Haff, Nancy; Patel, Mitesh S; Lim, Raymond; Zhu, Jingsan; Troxel, Andrea B; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G

2015-01-01

To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p < .01) when compared to control. There were no significant interactions between financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p < .05) with a conditional payment. Compared to lower-income participants, higher-income participants had lower odds of behavior change (OR: 0.46; p = .01) with a regret lottery. Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

Is CO2 emission a side effect of financial development? An empirical analysis for China.

PubMed

Hao, Yu; Zhang, Zong-Yong; Liao, Hua; Wei, Yi-Ming; Wang, Shuo

2016-10-01

Based on panel data for 29 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012, this paper explores the relationship between financial development and environmental quality in China. A comprehensive framework is utilized to estimate both the direct and indirect effects of financial development on CO 2 emissions in China using a carefully designed two-stage regression model. The first-difference and orthogonal-deviation Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods are used to control for potential endogeneity and introduce dynamics. To ensure the robustness of the estimations, two indicators measuring financial development-financial depth and financial efficiency-are used. The empirical results indicate that the direct effects of financial depth and financial efficiency on environmental quality are positive and negative, respectively. The indirect effects of both indicators are U shaped and dominate the shape of the total effects. These findings suggest that the influences of the financial development on environment depend on the level of economic development. At the early stage of economic growth, financial development is environmentally friendly. When the economy is highly developed, a higher level of financial development is harmful to the environmental quality.

The fallacy of financial heuristics.

PubMed

Langabeer, James

2007-01-01

In turbulent times, the financial policies and decisions about cash and debt make or break hospitals' financial condition. Decisions about whether to continue saving cash or reduce debt burdens are probably the most vital policy decision for the hospital CFO. Unfortunately, my research shows that most administrators are relying on judgment, or best-guess heuristics to address these policy issues. This article explores one of the most common heuristics in health finance-ratios gauging debt and cash on hand. The subject is explored through the research and analysis of over 40 hospitals in a very competitive marketplace-the boroughs of New York City. Analyses of financial strength, through various statistical models, were conducted to explore the linkages between traditional heuristics and long-term economic results. Data were collected for 30 operational and financial indicators. Findings suggest that organizations require different cash-debt positions based on their overall financial health, and that a one-number heuristic does not fit all. Extremely financially constrained hospitals (those approaching bankruptcy conditions) should be building free cash flow and minimizing debt service, while financially secure hospitals need to minimize cash on hand while reducing debt. If all hospitals continue to try to meet an arbitrary days of cash heuristic, this simplification could cripple an organization. A much more effective metric requires each organization to model decisions more comprehensively.

The financial impact of a clinical academic practice partnership.

PubMed

Greene, Mary Ann; Turner, James

2014-01-01

New strategies to provide clinical experiences for nursing students have caused nursing schools and hospitals to evaluate program costs. A Microsoft Excel model, which captures costs and associated benefits, was developed and is described here. The financial analysis shows that the Clinical Academic Practice Program framework for nursing clinical education, often preferred by students, can offer financial advantages to participating hospitals and schools of nursing. The model is potentially a tool for schools of nursing to enlist hospitals and to help manage expenses of clinical education. Hospitals may also use the Hospital Nursing Unit Staffing and Expense Worksheet in planning staffing when students are assigned to units and the cost/benefit findings to enlist management support.

Does competition improve financial stability of the banking sector in ASEAN countries? An empirical analysis.

PubMed

Noman, Abu Hanifa Md; Gee, Chan Sok; Isa, Che Ruhana

2017-01-01

This study examines the influence of competition on the financial stability of the commercial banks of Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) over the 1990 to 2014 period. Panzar-Rosse H-statistic, Lerner index and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) are used as measures of competition, while Z-score, non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and equity ratio are used as measures of financial stability. Two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimates demonstrate that competition measured by H-statistic is positively related to Z-score and equity ratio, and negatively related to non-performing loan ratio. Conversely, market power measured by Lerner index is negatively related to Z-score and equity ratio and positively related to NPL ratio. These results strongly support the competition-stability view for ASEAN banks. We also capture the non-linear relationship between competition and financial stability by incorporating a quadratic term of competition in our models. The results show that the coefficient of the quadratic term of H-statistic is negative for the Z-score model given a positive coefficient of the linear term in the same model. These results support the non-linear relationship between competition and financial stability of the banking sector. The study contains significant policy implications for improving the financial stability of the commercial banks.

Does competition improve financial stability of the banking sector in ASEAN countries? An empirical analysis

PubMed Central

Gee, Chan Sok; Isa, Che Ruhana

2017-01-01

This study examines the influence of competition on the financial stability of the commercial banks of Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) over the 1990 to 2014 period. Panzar-Rosse H-statistic, Lerner index and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) are used as measures of competition, while Z-score, non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and equity ratio are used as measures of financial stability. Two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimates demonstrate that competition measured by H-statistic is positively related to Z-score and equity ratio, and negatively related to non-performing loan ratio. Conversely, market power measured by Lerner index is negatively related to Z-score and equity ratio and positively related to NPL ratio. These results strongly support the competition-stability view for ASEAN banks. We also capture the non-linear relationship between competition and financial stability by incorporating a quadratic term of competition in our models. The results show that the coefficient of the quadratic term of H-statistic is negative for the Z-score model given a positive coefficient of the linear term in the same model. These results support the non-linear relationship between competition and financial stability of the banking sector. The study contains significant policy implications for improving the financial stability of the commercial banks. PMID:28486548

Statistical physics approaches to financial fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fengzhong

2009-12-01

Complex systems attract many researchers from various scientific fields. Financial markets are one of these widely studied complex systems. Statistical physics, which was originally developed to study large systems, provides novel ideas and powerful methods to analyze financial markets. The study of financial fluctuations characterizes market behavior, and helps to better understand the underlying market mechanism. Our study focuses on volatility, a fundamental quantity to characterize financial fluctuations. We examine equity data of the entire U.S. stock market during 2001 and 2002. To analyze the volatility time series, we develop a new approach, called return interval analysis, which examines the time intervals between two successive volatilities exceeding a given value threshold. We find that the return interval distribution displays scaling over a wide range of thresholds. This scaling is valid for a range of time windows, from one minute up to one day. Moreover, our results are similar for commodities, interest rates, currencies, and for stocks of different countries. Further analysis shows some systematic deviations from a scaling law, which we can attribute to nonlinear correlations in the volatility time series. We also find a memory effect in return intervals for different time scales, which is related to the long-term correlations in the volatility. To further characterize the mechanism of price movement, we simulate the volatility time series using two different models, fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) and fractional Brownian motion (fBm), and test these models with the return interval analysis. We find that both models can mimic time memory but only fBm shows scaling in the return interval distribution. In addition, we examine the volatility of daily opening to closing and of closing to opening. We find that each volatility distribution has a power law tail. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method, we show long-term auto-correlations in these volatility time series. We also analyze return, the actual price changes of stocks, and find that the returns over the two sessions are often anti-correlated.

Financial Constrains for Innovative Firms: The Role of Size, Industry and ICT Uses as Determinants of Firms' Financial Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo-Merino, David; Vilaseca-Requena, Jordi; Plana-Erta, Dolors

This paper uses a large and original data set of Catalan firms in all the economic branches to analyse the effects of size, industry and degree of ICT uses on financial constraints for innovative firms. We have conducted a micro econometric analysis following Henry et al. (1999) investment model to empirically contrast the relationship between firms' investment spread over time and their financial structure, and we have used von Kalckreuth (2004) methodology, based on an original survey with data on financial issues. Our results show that it exits a positive and significant relationship between investment shift and financial structure, emerging financial constraints for more innovative firms. Furthermore, these constraints are higher for micro companies and firms within the knowledge-advanced services' industry. Finally, we have also found that advanced ICT uses by more innovative firms allow them to reduce constraints of access to sources of finance.

Effects of the Financial Crisis on University Choice by Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cattaneo, Mattia; Horta, Hugo; Malighetti, Paolo; Meoli, Michele; Paleari, Stefano

2017-01-01

This study analyses the university choices of male and female students in Italy over the 2003-2012 period and for two sub-periods before (2003-2008) and after (2009-2012) the 2008 financial crisis. The analysis is guided by human capital, signalling and preference theories and implemented through a competing destinations model that controls for…

Toward Enhancing Automated Credibility Assessment: A Model for Question Type Classification and Tools for Linguistic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moffitt, Kevin Christopher

2011-01-01

The three objectives of this dissertation were to develop a question type model for predicting linguistic features of responses to interview questions, create a tool for linguistic analysis of documents, and use lexical bundle analysis to identify linguistic differences between fraudulent and non-fraudulent financial reports. First, The Moffitt…

Research Challenges in Financial Data Modeling and Analysis.

PubMed

Alexander, Lewis; Das, Sanjiv R; Ives, Zachary; Jagadish, H V; Monteleoni, Claire

2017-09-01

Significant research challenges must be addressed in the cleaning, transformation, integration, modeling, and analytics of Big Data sources for finance. This article surveys the progress made so far in this direction and obstacles yet to be overcome. These are issues that are of interest to data-driven financial institutions in both corporate finance and consumer finance. These challenges are also of interest to the legal profession as well as to regulators. The discussion is relevant to technology firms that support the growing field of FinTech.

Information driving force and its application in agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2018-04-01

Exploring the scientific impact of online big-data has attracted much attention of researchers from different fields in recent years. Complex financial systems are typical open systems profoundly influenced by the external information. Based on the large-scale data in the public media and stock markets, we first define an information driving force, and analyze how it affects the complex financial system. The information driving force is observed to be asymmetric in the bull and bear market states. As an application, we then propose an agent-based model driven by the information driving force. Especially, all the key parameters are determined from the empirical analysis rather than from statistical fitting of the simulation results. With our model, both the stationary properties and non-stationary dynamic behaviors are simulated. Considering the mean-field effect of the external information, we also propose a few-body model to simulate the financial market in the laboratory.

Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

PubMed

Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

2016-01-01

High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincak, R.

2013-12-01

In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

Time is Money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, Marcel; Vandewalle, Nicolas; Ivanova, Kristinka

Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed when pertaining to the analysis of coherent and random sequences in financial fluctuations within (i) the extended detrended fluctuation analysis method, (ii) multi-affine analysis technique, (iii) mobile average intersection rules and distributions, (iv) sandpile avalanches models for crash prediction, (v) the (m,k)-Zipf method and (vi) the i-variability diagram technique for sorting out short range correlations. The most baffling result that needs further thought from mathematicians and physicists is recalled: the crossing of two mobile averages is an original method for measuring the "signal" roughness exponent, but why it is so is not understood up to now.

Financial and environmental modelling of water hardness--implications for utilising harvested rainwater in washing machines.

PubMed

Morales-Pinzón, Tito; Lurueña, Rodrigo; Gabarrell, Xavier; Gasol, Carles M; Rieradevall, Joan

2014-02-01

A study was conducted to determine the financial and environmental effects of water quality on rainwater harvesting systems. The potential for replacing tap water used in washing machines with rainwater was studied, and then analysis presented in this paper is valid for applications that include washing machines where tap water hardness may be important. A wide range of weather conditions, such as rainfall (284-1,794 mm/year); water hardness (14-315 mg/L CaCO3); tap water prices (0.85-2.65 Euros/m(3)) in different Spanish urban areas (from individual buildings to whole neighbourhoods); and other scenarios (including materials and water storage capacity) were analysed. Rainfall was essential for rainwater harvesting, but the tap water prices and the water hardness were the main factors for consideration in the financial and the environmental analyses, respectively. The local tap water hardness and prices can cause greater financial and environmental impacts than the type of material used for the water storage tank or the volume of the tank. The use of rainwater as a substitute for hard water in washing machines favours financial analysis. Although tap water hardness significantly affects the financial analysis, the greatest effect was found in the environmental analysis. When hard tap water needed to be replaced, it was found that a water price of 1 Euro/m(3) could render the use of rainwater financially feasible when using large-scale rainwater harvesting systems. When the water hardness was greater than 300 mg/L CaCO3, a financial analysis revealed that an net present value greater than 270 Euros/dwelling could be obtained at the neighbourhood scale, and there could be a reduction in the Global Warming Potential (100 years) ranging between 35 and 101 kg CO2 eq./dwelling/year. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of the late 2000s financial crisis on suicides in Spain: an interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, James A; Gasparrini, Antonio; Artundo, Carlos M; McKee, Martin

2013-10-01

The current financial crisis is having a major impact on European economies, especially that of Spain. Past evidence suggests that adverse macro-economic conditions exacerbate mental illness, but evidence from the current crisis is limited. This study analyses the association between the financial crisis and suicide rates in Spain. An interrupted time-series analysis of national suicides data between 2005 and 2010 was used to establish whether there has been any deviation in the underlying trend in suicide rates associated with the financial crisis. Segmented regression with a seasonally adjusted quasi-Poisson model was used for the analysis. Stratified analyses were performed to establish whether the effect of the crisis on suicides varied by region, sex and age group. The mean monthly suicide rate in Spain during the study period was 0.61 per 100 000 with an underlying trend of a 0.3% decrease per month. We found an 8.0% increase in the suicide rate above this underlying trend since the financial crisis (95% CI: 1.009-1.156; P = 0.03); this was robust to sensitivity analysis. A control analysis showed no change in deaths from accidental falls associated with the crisis. Stratified analyses suggested that the association between the crisis and suicide rates is greatest in the Mediterranean and Northern areas, in males and amongst those of working age. The financial crisis in Spain has been associated with a relative increase in suicides. Males and those of working age may be at particular risk of suicide associated with the crisis and may benefit from targeted interventions.

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity

PubMed Central

Marson, Daniel

2016-01-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. PMID:27506235

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

2012-11-01

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

Statistical analysis of financial returns for a multiagent order book model of asset trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Golke, Sebastian; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J.

2007-07-01

We recently introduced a realistic order book model [T. Preis , Europhys. Lett. 75, 510 (2006)] which is able to generate the stylized facts of financial markets. We analyze this model in detail, explain the consequences of the use of different groups of traders, and focus on the foundation of a nontrivial Hurst exponent based on the introduction of a market trend. Our order book model supports the theoretical argument that a nontrivial Hurst exponent implies not necessarily long-term correlations. A coupling of the order placement depth to the market trend can produce fat tails, which can be described by a truncated Lévy distribution.

Random-Walk Type Model with Fat Tails for Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matuttis, Hans-Geors

Starting from the random-walk model, practices of financial markets are included into the random-walk so that fat tail distributions like those in the high frequency data of the SP500 index are reproduced, though the individual mechanisms are modeled by normally distributed data. The incorporation of local correlation narrows the distribution for "frequent" events, whereas global correlations due to technical analysis leads to fat tails. Delay of market transactions in the trading process shifts the fat tail probabilities downwards. Such an inclusion of reactions to market fluctuations leads to mini-trends which are distributed with unit variance.

A Conceptual Analysis of State Support for Higher Education: Appropriations versus Need-Based Financial Aid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb

2010-01-01

In this paper, we use economic concepts to examine the choice that states make between giving appropriations to public colleges or need-based financial aid to students. We begin by reviewing the economic justification for state support for higher education. Next, we introduce a simple economic model for comparing and contrasting appropriations and…

A Comparative Analysis on Models of Higher Education Massification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pan, Maoyuan; Luo, Dan

2008-01-01

Four financial models of massification of higher education are discussed in this essay. They are American model, Western European model, Southeast Asian and Latin American model and the transition countries model. The comparison of the four models comes to the conclusion that taking advantage of nongovernmental funding is fundamental to dealing…

Derivation of the Boltzmann Equation for Financial Brownian Motion: Direct Observation of the Collective Motion of High-Frequency Traders.

PubMed

Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Sueshige, Takumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2018-03-30

A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic theory is developed for the systematic description of the financial market from microscopic dynamics of HFTs. We report first on a microscopic empirical law of traders' trend-following behavior by tracking the trajectories of all individuals, which quantifies the collective motion of HFTs but has not been captured in conventional order-book models. We next introduce the corresponding microscopic model of HFTs and present its theoretical solution paralleling molecular kinetic theory: Boltzmann-like and Langevin-like equations are derived from the microscopic dynamics via the Bogoliubov-Born-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon hierarchy. Our model is the first microscopic model that has been directly validated through data analysis of the microscopic dynamics, exhibiting quantitative agreements with mesoscopic and macroscopic empirical results.

Derivation of the Boltzmann Equation for Financial Brownian Motion: Direct Observation of the Collective Motion of High-Frequency Traders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Sueshige, Takumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2018-03-01

A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic theory is developed for the systematic description of the financial market from microscopic dynamics of HFTs. We report first on a microscopic empirical law of traders' trend-following behavior by tracking the trajectories of all individuals, which quantifies the collective motion of HFTs but has not been captured in conventional order-book models. We next introduce the corresponding microscopic model of HFTs and present its theoretical solution paralleling molecular kinetic theory: Boltzmann-like and Langevin-like equations are derived from the microscopic dynamics via the Bogoliubov-Born-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon hierarchy. Our model is the first microscopic model that has been directly validated through data analysis of the microscopic dynamics, exhibiting quantitative agreements with mesoscopic and macroscopic empirical results.

Application service provider (ASP) financial models for off-site PACS archiving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratib, Osman M.; Liu, Brent J.; McCoy, J. Michael; Enzmann, Dieter R.

2003-05-01

For the replacement of its legacy Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (approx. annual workload of 300,000 procedures), UCLA Medical Center has evaluated and adopted an off-site data-warehousing solution based on an ASP financial with a one-time single payment per study archived. Different financial models for long-term data archive services were compared to the traditional capital/operational costs of on-site digital archives. Total cost of ownership (TCO), including direct and indirect expenses and savings, were compared for each model. Financial parameters were considered: logistic/operational advantages and disadvantages of ASP models versus traditional archiving systems. Our initial analysis demonstrated that the traditional linear ASP business model for data storage was unsuitable for large institutions. The overall cost markedly exceeds the TCO of an in-house archive infrastructure (when support and maintenance costs are included.) We demonstrated, however, that non-linear ASP pricing models can be cost-effective alternatives for large-scale data storage, particularly if they are based on a scalable off-site data-warehousing service and the prices are adapted to the specific size of a given institution. The added value of ASP is that it does not require iterative data migrations from legacy media to new storage media at regular intervals.

System dynamic modeling: an alternative method for budgeting.

PubMed

Srijariya, Witsanuchai; Riewpaiboon, Arthorn; Chaikledkaew, Usa

2008-03-01

To construct, validate, and simulate a system dynamic financial model and compare it against the conventional method. The study was a cross-sectional analysis of secondary data retrieved from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) in the fiscal year 2004. The sample consisted of all emergency patients who received emergency services outside their registered hospital-catchments area. The dependent variable used was the amount of reimbursed money. Two types of model were constructed, namely, the system dynamic model using the STELLA software and the multiple linear regression model. The outputs of both methods were compared. The study covered 284,716 patients from various levels of providers. The system dynamic model had the capability of producing various types of outputs, for example, financial and graphical analyses. For the regression analysis, statistically significant predictors were composed of service types (outpatient or inpatient), operating procedures, length of stay, illness types (accident or not), hospital characteristics, age, and hospital location (adjusted R(2) = 0.74). The total budget arrived at from using the system dynamic model and regression model was US$12,159,614.38 and US$7,301,217.18, respectively, whereas the actual NHSO reimbursement cost was US$12,840,805.69. The study illustrated that the system dynamic model is a useful financial management tool, although it is not easy to construct. The model is not only more accurate in prediction but is also more capable of analyzing large and complex real-world situations than the conventional method.

Non-criticality of interaction network over system's crises: A percolation analysis.

PubMed

Shirazi, Amir Hossein; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Hosseiny, Ali; Amirzadeh, Ehsan; Toranj Simin, Pourya

2017-11-20

Extraction of interaction networks from multi-variate time-series is one of the topics of broad interest in complex systems. Although this method has a wide range of applications, most of the previous analyses have focused on the pairwise relations. Here we establish the potential of such a method to elicit aggregated behavior of the system by making a connection with the concepts from percolation theory. We study the dynamical interaction networks of a financial market extracted from the correlation network of indices, and build a weighted network. In correspondence with the percolation model, we find that away from financial crises the interaction network behaves like a critical random network of Erdős-Rényi, while close to a financial crisis, our model deviates from the critical random network and behaves differently at different size scales. We perform further analysis to clarify that our observation is not a simple consequence of the growth in correlations over the crises.

ICU early physical rehabilitation programs: financial modeling of cost savings.

PubMed

Lord, Robert K; Mayhew, Christopher R; Korupolu, Radha; Mantheiy, Earl C; Friedman, Michael A; Palmer, Jeffrey B; Needham, Dale M

2013-03-01

To evaluate the potential annual net cost savings of implementing an ICU early rehabilitation program. Using data from existing publications and actual experience with an early rehabilitation program in the Johns Hopkins Hospital Medical ICU, we developed a model of net financial savings/costs and presented results for ICUs with 200, 600, 900, and 2,000 annual admissions, accounting for both conservative- and best-case scenarios. Our example scenario provided a projected financial analysis of the Johns Hopkins Medical ICU early rehabilitation program, with 900 admissions per year, using actual reductions in length of stay achieved by this program. U.S.-based adult ICUs. Financial modeling of the introduction of an ICU early rehabilitation program. Net cost savings generated in our example scenario, with 900 annual admissions and actual length of stay reductions of 22% and 19% for the ICU and floor, respectively, were $817,836. Sensitivity analyses, which used conservative- and best-case scenarios for length of stay reductions and varied the per-day ICU and floor costs, across ICUs with 200-2,000 annual admissions, yielded financial projections ranging from -$87,611 (net cost) to $3,763,149 (net savings). Of the 24 scenarios included in these sensitivity analyses, 20 (83%) demonstrated net savings, with a relatively small net cost occurring in the remaining four scenarios, mostly when simultaneously combining the most conservative assumptions. A financial model, based on actual experience and published data, projects that investment in an ICU early rehabilitation program can generate net financial savings for U.S. hospitals. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the projected net cost of implementing such a program is modest relative to the substantial improvements in patient outcomes demonstrated by ICU early rehabilitation programs.

Modeling the impact of social discrimination and financial hardship on the sexual risk of HIV among Latino and Black men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Ayala, George; Bingham, Trista; Kim, Junyeop; Wheeler, Darrell P; Millett, Gregorio A

2012-05-01

We examined the impact of social discrimination and financial hardship on unprotected anal intercourse with a male sex partner of serodiscordant or unknown HIV status in the past 3 months among 1081 Latino and 1154 Black men who have sex with men (MSM; n = 2235) residing in Los Angeles County, California; New York, New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We administered HIV testing and a questionnaire assessing 6 explanatory variables. We combined traditional mediation analysis with the results of a path analysis to simultaneously examine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these variables on the outcome variable. Bivariate analysis showed that homophobia, racism, financial hardship, and lack of social support were associated with unprotected anal intercourse with a serodiscordant or sero-unknown partner. Path analysis determined that these relations were mediated by participation in risky sexual situations and lack of social support. However, paths between the explanatory variable and 2 mediating variables varied by participants' serostatus. Future prevention research and program designs should specifically address the differential impact of social discrimination and financial hardship on lack of social support and risky sexual situations among Latino and Black MSM.

The Mathematics of the Return from Home Ownership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vest, Floyd; Griffith, Reynolds

1991-01-01

A mathematical model or project analysis that calculates the financial return from home ownership is described. This analysis illustrates topics such as compound interest, annuities, amortization schedules, internal rate of return, and other elements of school and college mathematics up through numerical analysis. (KR)

Leasing vs. owning a medical office: an analytical model.

PubMed

Tolbert, Samuel H; Wood, Carol P

2007-01-01

Physicians often face a major financial dilemma: To lease or own their medical office. This article takes a set of typical assumptions for a real estate market and analyzes the capital costs, cash flow, and investment implications of the option of leasing a medical office versus owning a similar property. The paper analyzes the financial aspects of each option and the impact on net physician income and potential return-on-investment. A model for analysis is presented that can be used by practitioners who advise physicians in such decision-making.

Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas

PubMed Central

Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza

2015-01-01

Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets. PMID:26332240

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

PubMed

Marson, Daniel

2016-09-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Key components of financial-analysis education for clinical nurses.

PubMed

Lim, Ji Young; Noh, Wonjung

2015-09-01

In this study, we identified key components of financial-analysis education for clinical nurses. We used a literature review, focus group discussions, and a content validity index survey to develop key components of financial-analysis education. First, a wide range of references were reviewed, and 55 financial-analysis education components were gathered. Second, two focus group discussions were performed; the participants were 11 nurses who had worked for more than 3 years in a hospital, and nine components were agreed upon. Third, 12 professionals, including professors, nurse executive, nurse managers, and an accountant, participated in the content validity index. Finally, six key components of financial-analysis education were selected. These key components were as follows: understanding the need for financial analysis, introduction to financial analysis, reading and implementing balance sheets, reading and implementing income statements, understanding the concepts of financial ratios, and interpretation and practice of financial ratio analysis. The results of this study will be used to develop an education program to increase financial-management competency among clinical nurses. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

A content analysis of analyst research: health care through the eyes of analysts.

PubMed

Nielsen, Christian

2008-01-01

This article contributes to the understanding of how health care companies may communicate the business models by studying financial analysts' analyst reports. The study examines the differences between the information conveyed in recurrent and fundamental analyst reports as well as whether the characteristics of the analysts and their environment affect their business model analyses. A medium-sized health care company in the medical-technology sector, internationally renowned for its state-of-the-art business reporting, was chosen as the basis for the study. An analysis of 111 fundamental and recurrent analyst reports on this company by each investment bank actively following it was conducted using a content analysis methodology. The study reveals that the recurrent analyses are concerned with evaluating the information disclosed by the health care company itself and not so much with digging up new information. It also indicates that while maintenance work might be focused on evaluating specific details, fundamental research is more concerned with extending the understanding of the general picture, i.e., the sustainability and performance of the overall business model. The amount of financial information disclosed in either type of report is not correlated to the other disclosures in the reports. In comparison to business reporting practices, the fundamental analyst reports put considerably less weight on social and sustainability, intellectual capital and corporate governance information, and they disclose much less comparable non-financial information. The suggestion made is that looking at the types of information financial analysts consider important and convey to their "customers," the investors and fund managers, constitutes a valuable indication to health care companies regarding the needs of the financial market users of their reports and other communications. There are some limitations to the possibility of applying statistical tests to the data-set as well as methodological limitations in relation to the exclusion of tables and graphs.

Examining the effectiveness of municipal solid waste management systems: An integrated cost-benefit analysis perspective with a financial cost modeling in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weng, Yu-Chi, E-mail: clyde.weng@gmail.com; Fujiwara, Takeshi

2011-06-15

In order to develop a sound material-cycle society, cost-effective municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems are required for the municipalities in the context of the integrated accounting system for MSW management. Firstly, this paper attempts to establish an integrated cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework for evaluating the effectiveness of MSW management systems. In this paper, detailed cost/benefit items due to waste problems are particularly clarified. The stakeholders of MSW management systems, including the decision-makers of the municipalities and the citizens, are expected to reconsider the waste problems in depth and thus take wise actions with the aid of the proposed CBAmore » framework. Secondly, focusing on the financial cost, this study develops a generalized methodology to evaluate the financial cost-effectiveness of MSW management systems, simultaneously considering the treatment technological levels and policy effects. The impacts of the influencing factors on the annual total and average financial MSW operation and maintenance (O and M) costs are analyzed in the Taiwanese case study with a demonstrative short-term future projection of the financial costs under scenario analysis. The established methodology would contribute to the evaluation of the current policy measures and to the modification of the policy design for the municipalities.« less

Hospital financial management: what is the link between revenue cycle management, profitability, and not-for-profit hospitals' ability to grow equity?

PubMed

Singh, Simone Rauscher; Wheeler, John

2012-01-01

Effective revenue cycle management--from appointment scheduling and patient registration at the front end of the revenue cycle to billing and cash collections at the back end--plays a crucial role in hospitals' efforts to improve their financial performance. Using data for 1,397 bond-issuing, not-for-profit US hospitals for 2000 to 2007, this study analyzed the relationship between hospitals' performance at managing the revenue cycle and their profitability and ability to build equity capital. Hospital-level fixed effects regression analysis was used to model four different measures of profitability and equity capital as functions of two key financial indicators of revenue cycle management--amount of patient revenue and speed of revenue collection. The results indicated that higher amounts of patient revenue in relation to a hospital's assets were associated with statistically significant increases in operating and total profit margins, free cash flow, and equity capital (p < 0.01 for all four models); that is, hospitals that generated more patient revenue per dollar of assets invested reported improved financial performance. Likewise, a statistically significant link existed between lower revenue collection periods and all four indicators of hospital financial performance (p < 0.01 for three models; p < 0.05 for one model). Hospitals that collected faster on their patient revenue reported higher profit margins and larger equity values. For revenue cycle managers, these findings represent good news: Streamlining a hospital's management of the patient revenue cycle can advance the organization's financial viability by improving profitability and enabling equity growth.

A comparison of salary-wage and hourly-wage acute care nursing units: a pilot study.

PubMed

Hickey, Rosa G; Buchko, Barbara L; Coe, Paula F; Woods, Anne B

2015-05-01

This pilot study examined differences in RN perception of the professional practice environment and financial indicators between salary-wage and hourly-wage compensation models. There is a dearth of current information regarding use of salary-wage models for compensation for direct care nurses. A descriptive, comparative design was used to examine the Revised Professional Practice Environment Scale (RPPE) and financial indicators of nurses in a nonprofit healthcare system over a 6-month period. Mean scores on the RPPE were significantly lower for hourly-wage RNs, and the hourly-wage model resulted in a 1.2% additional cost for overtime hours compared with the fixed cost of the salary-wage model. Nurses in an hourly-wage unit reported a significantly lower perception of the clinical practice environment than did their peers in a salary-wage unit, indicating that professional practice perceptions in a salary-wage unit may provide a more effective professional practice environment. Financial analysis resulted in a budget-neutral impact.

Volatility Behaviors of Financial Time Series by Percolation System on Sierpinski Carpet Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Anqi; Wang, Jun

2015-01-01

The financial time series is simulated and investigated by the percolation system on the Sierpinski carpet lattice, where percolation is usually employed to describe the behavior of connected clusters in a random graph, and the Sierpinski carpet lattice is a graph which corresponds the fractal — Sierpinski carpet. To study the fluctuation behavior of returns for the financial model and the Shanghai Composite Index, we establish a daily volatility measure — multifractal volatility (MFV) measure to obtain MFV series, which have long-range cross-correlations with squared daily return series. The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model is used to analyze the MFV series, which performs better when compared to other volatility series. By a comparative study of the multifractality and volatility analysis of the data, the simulation data of the proposed model exhibits very similar behaviors to those of the real stock index, which indicates somewhat rationality of the model to the market application.

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

2016-01-01

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

On entropy, financial markets and minority games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapart, Christopher A.

2009-04-01

The paper builds upon an earlier statistical analysis of financial time series with Shannon information entropy, published in [L. Molgedey, W. Ebeling, Local order, entropy and predictability of financial time series, European Physical Journal B-Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 15/4 (2000) 733-737]. A novel generic procedure is proposed for making multistep-ahead predictions of time series by building a statistical model of entropy. The approach is first demonstrated on the chaotic Mackey-Glass time series and later applied to Japanese Yen/US dollar intraday currency data. The paper also reinterprets Minority Games [E. Moro, The minority game: An introductory guide, Advances in Condensed Matter and Statistical Physics (2004)] within the context of physical entropy, and uses models derived from minority game theory as a tool for measuring the entropy of a model in response to time series. This entropy conditional upon a model is subsequently used in place of information-theoretic entropy in the proposed multistep prediction algorithm.

Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

PubMed

Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

2017-06-01

Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

A Developmental Model of Financial Capability: A Framework for Promoting a Successful Transition to Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serido, Joyce; Shim, Soyeon; Tang, Chuanyi

2013-01-01

This study proposes a developmental model of financial capability to understand the process by which young adults acquire the financial knowledge and behaviors needed to manage full-time adult social roles and responsibilities. The model integrates financial knowledge, financial self-beliefs, financial behavior, and well-being into a single…

Community opioid treatment perspectives on contingency management: Perceived feasibility, effectiveness, and transportability of social and financial incentives

PubMed Central

Hartzler, Bryan; Rabun, Carl

2013-01-01

Treatment community reluctance toward contingency management (CM) may be better understood by eliciting views of its feasibility, effectiveness, and transportability when social vs. financial incentives are utilized. This mixed method study involved individual staff interviews representing three personnel tiers (an executive, clinical supervisor, and two front-line clinicians) at 16 opiate treatment programs. Interviews included Likert ratings of feasibility, effectiveness, and transportability of each incentive type, and content analysis of corresponding interviewee narrative. Multi-level modeling analyses indicated that social incentives were perceived more feasible, more effective, and more transportable than financial incentives, with results pervading personnel tier. Content analysis suggested the more positive perception of social incentives was most often due to expected logistical advantages, positive impacts on patient quality-of-life, and philosophical congruence among staff. Weaker perception of financial incentives was most often influenced by concerns about costs, patient dissatisfaction, and staff philosophical incongruence. Implications for CM dissemination are discussed. PMID:23506780

Dynamics of Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2004-06-01

Standard texts and research in economics and finance ignore the absence of evidence from the analysis of real, unmassaged market data to support the notion of Adam Smith's stabilizing Invisible Hand. In stark contrast, this text introduces a new empirically-based model of financial market dynamics that explains the volatility of prices options correctly and clarifies the instability of financial markets. The emphasis is on understanding how real markets behave, not how they hypothetically 'should' behave.

Life as an Ex-Physicist on Wall Street

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derman, Emanuel

2001-06-01

Financial theory looks deceptively like physics because of the techniques it uses. But physics models deal with the relatively unchanging parameters of the external world; in contrast, the parameters of financial theory are people's current estimates of, and sentiments about, future behavior. Life as a Ph.D. on Wall St is therefore very different from the way most people in academic life imagine it to be. For most of us, most of the time, it involves neither finding miraculous and previously undiscovered arbitrages, nor doing boring mindless programming. Instead, it demands an interdisciplinary mix of inventive computation, applied mathematics, financial understanding, self-education and educating others, applied in a hectic environment, to help build and maintain a business. Financial modeling as a practitioner means suffering many interruptions when you want to think quietly, and making many pragmatic compromises dictated by constraints on time and resources. It also means a stimulating and lively environment, using your imagination, avoiding complexity, and always trying to bridge the gap between analysis and intuition (yours and others).

Financial performance monitoring of the technical efficiency of critical access hospitals: a data envelopment analysis and logistic regression modeling approach.

PubMed

Wilson, Asa B; Kerr, Bernard J; Bastian, Nathaniel D; Fulton, Lawrence V

2012-01-01

From 1980 to 1999, rural designated hospitals closed at a disproportionally high rate. In response to this emergent threat to healthcare access in rural settings, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 made provisions for the creation of a new rural hospital--the critical access hospital (CAH). The conversion to CAH and the associated cost-based reimbursement scheme significantly slowed the closure rate of rural hospitals. This work investigates which methods can ensure the long-term viability of small hospitals. This article uses a two-step design to focus on a hypothesized relationship between technical efficiency of CAHs and a recently developed set of financial monitors for these entities. The goal is to identify the financial performance measures associated with efficiency. The first step uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to differentiate efficient from inefficient facilities within a data set of 183 CAHs. Determining DEA efficiency is an a priori categorization of hospitals in the data set as efficient or inefficient. In the second step, DEA efficiency is the categorical dependent variable (efficient = 0, inefficient = 1) in the subsequent binary logistic regression (LR) model. A set of six financial monitors selected from the array of 20 measures were the LR independent variables. We use a binary LR to test the null hypothesis that recently developed CAH financial indicators had no predictive value for categorizing a CAH as efficient or inefficient, (i.e., there is no relationship between DEA efficiency and fiscal performance).

Impact of financial burden of cancer on survivors' quality of life.

PubMed

Fenn, Kathleen M; Evans, Suzanne B; McCorkle, Ruth; DiGiovanna, Michael P; Pusztai, Lajos; Sanft, Tara; Hofstatter, Erin W; Killelea, Brigid K; Knobf, M Tish; Lannin, Donald R; Abu-Khalaf, Maysa; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B

2014-09-01

Little is known about the relationship between the financial burden of cancer and the physical and emotional health of cancer survivors. We examined the association between financial problems caused by cancer and reported quality of life in a population-based sample of patients with cancer. Data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were analyzed. A multivariable regression model was used to examine the relationship between the degree to which cancer caused financial problems and the patients' reported quality of life. Of 2,108 patients who answered the survey question, "To what degree has cancer caused financial problems for you and your family?," 8.6% reported "a lot," whereas 69.6% reported "not at all." Patients who reported "a lot" of financial problems as a result of cancer care costs were more likely to rate their physical health (18.6% v 4.3%, P < .001), mental health (8.3% v 1.8%, P < .001), and satisfaction with social activities and relationships (11.8% v 3.6%, P < .001) as poor compared to those with no financial hardship. On multivariable analysis controlling for all of the significant covariates on bivariate analysis, the degree to which cancer caused financial problems was the strongest independent predictor of quality of life. Patients who reported that cancer caused "a lot" of financial problems were four times less likely to rate their quality of life as "excellent," "very good," or "good" (odds ratio = 0.24; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.40; P < .001). Increased financial burden asa result of cancer care costs is the strongest independent predictor of poor quality of life among cancer survivors. Copyright © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Detecting Multifractal Properties in Asset Returns:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lux, Thomas

It has become popular recently to apply the multifractal formalism of statistical physics (scaling analysis of structure functions and f(α) singularity spectrum analysis) to financial data. The outcome of such studies is a nonlinear shape of the structure function and a nontrivial behavior of the spectrum. Eventually, this literature has moved from basic data analysis to estimation of particular variants of multifractal models for asset returns via fitting of the empirical τ(q) and f(α) functions. Here, we reinvestigate earlier claims of multifractality using four long time series of important financial markets. Taking the recently proposed multifractal models of asset returns as our starting point, we show that the typical "scaling estimators" used in the physics literature are unable to distinguish between spurious and "true" multiscaling of financial data. Designing explicit tests for multiscaling, we can in no case reject the null hypothesis that the apparent curvature of both the scaling function and the Hölder spectrum are spuriously generated by the particular fat-tailed distribution of financial data. Given the well-known overwhelming evidence in favor of different degrees of long-term dependence in the powers of returns, we interpret this inability to reject the null hypothesis of multiscaling as a lack of discriminatory power of the standard approach rather than as a true rejection of multiscaling. However, the complete "failure" of the multifractal apparatus in this setting also raises the question whether results in other areas (like geophysics) suffer from similar shortcomings of the traditional methodology.

Combining the benefits of decision science and financial analysis in public health management: a county-specific budgeting and planning model.

PubMed

Fos, Peter J; Miller, Danny L; Amy, Brian W; Zuniga, Miguel A

2004-01-01

State public health agencies are charged with providing and overseeing the management of basic public health services on a population-wide basis. These activities have a re-emphasized focus as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, the subsequent anthrax events, and the continuing importance placed on bioterrorism preparedness, West Nile virus, and emerging infectious diseases (eg, monkeypox, SARS). This has added to the tension that exists in budgeting and planning, given the diverse constituencies that are served in each state. State health agencies must be prepared to allocate finite resources in a more formal manner to be able to provide basic public health services on a routine basis, as well as during outbreaks. This article describes the use of an analytical approach to assist financial analysis that is used for budgeting and planning in a state health agency. The combined benefits of decision science and financial analysis are needed to adequately and appropriately plan and budget to meet the diverse needs of the populations within a state. Health and financial indicators are incorporated into a decision model, based on multicriteria decision theory, that has been employed to acquire information about counties and public health programs areas within a county, that reflect the impact of planning and budgeting efforts. This information can be used to allocate resources, to distribute funds for health care services, and to guide public health finance policy formulation and implementation.

Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets

PubMed Central

Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-01-01

It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that “fat” tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting. PMID:22586086

Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

PubMed

Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

2012-05-29

It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

The Measurement of Economic Well-Being in Need Analysis Models. ACT Research Report No. 66.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goggin, W. J.

The equitable distribution of aid funds is viewed in this paper as a problem in taxation according to ability to pay or economic well-being. This approach is emphasized because it is fruitful to consider the various financial need analysis models as systems of taxation that result in the parents' expected contribution to the postsecondary…

Two ways to solve, using Lie group analysis, the fundamental valuation equation in the double-square-root model of the term structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinkala, W.

2011-01-01

Two approaches based on Lie group analysis are employed to obtain the closed-form solution of a partial differential equation derived by Francis A. Longstaff [J Financial Econom 1989;23:195-224] for the price of a discount bond in the double-square-root model of the term structure.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria rapid diagnostic test incentive schemes for informal private healthcare providers in Myanmar.

PubMed

Chen, Ingrid T; Aung, Tin; Thant, Hnin Nwe Nwe; Sudhinaraset, May; Kahn, James G

2015-02-05

The emergence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Southeast Asia threatens global malaria control efforts. One strategy to counter this problem is a subsidy of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) within the informal private sector, where the majority of malaria care in Myanmar is provided. A study in Myanmar evaluated the effectiveness of financial incentives vs information, education and counselling (IEC) in driving the proper use of subsidized malaria RDTs among informal private providers. This cost-effectiveness analysis compares intervention options. A decision tree was constructed in a spreadsheet to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among four strategies: no intervention, simple subsidy, subsidy with financial incentives, and subsidy with IEC. Model inputs included programmatic costs (in dollars), malaria epidemiology and observed study outcomes. Data sources included expenditure records, study data and scientific literature. Model outcomes included the proportion of properly and improperly treated individuals with and without P. falciparum malaria, and associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results are reported as ICERs in US dollars per DALY averted. One-way sensitivity analysis assessed how outcomes depend on uncertainty in inputs. ICERs from the least to most expensive intervention are: $1,169/DALY averted for simple subsidy vs no intervention, $185/DALY averted for subsidy with financial incentives vs simple subsidy, and $200/DALY averted for a subsidy with IEC vs subsidy with financial incentives. Due to decreasing ICERs, each strategy was also compared to no intervention. The subsidy with IEC was the most favourable, costing $639/DALY averted compared with no intervention. One-way sensitivity analysis shows that ICERs are most affected by programme costs, RDT uptake, treatment-seeking behaviour, and the prevalence and virulence of non-malarial fevers. In conclusion, private provider subsidies with IEC or a combination of IEC and financial incentives may be a good investment for malaria control.

Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

PubMed

Gorton, Dan

2014-09-01

The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Patients Undergoing Radiation Therapy Are at Risk of Financial Toxicity: A Patient-based Prospective Survey Study.

PubMed

Palmer, Joshua D; Patel, Tejash T; Eldredge-Hindy, Harriet; Keith, Scott W; Patel, Tapas; Malatesta, Theresa; DiNome, Jessie; Lowther, Anne; Ferguson, Linda; Wagenborg, Sally; Smyles, John; Babaria, Usha; Stabile, Richard; Gressen, Eric; Rudoler, Shari; Fisher, Scot A

2018-06-01

Little is known about the financial burden experienced by patients receiving radiation therapy. Furthermore, currently, no financial toxicity screening tools have been validated for use in radiation oncology. Physician surveys were used to gauge provider understanding of treatment costs and their willingness to adopt the use of financial toxicity screening tools. Post-treatment patient surveys were used to investigate the covariates of treatment-induced financial risk. Of the 210 radiation oncologists who completed our survey, 53% reported being "very concerned" with treatment-related costs negatively affecting their patients, and 80% believed that a financial toxicity screening tool would be useful in practice. An analysis of patient surveys using logistic regression found age and cancer site to be the most important variables associated with financial toxicity. Thirty-four patients (22%) experienced financial toxicity related to treatment. The financial toxicities experienced were loss of job (28%), loss of income (24%), difficulty paying their rent or mortgage (20%), difficulty paying for transportation (15%), and difficulty paying for meals (13%). Financial toxicity is an important measure for patients and providers and is experienced by approximately one quarter of patients. Further studies to improve models to predict financial toxicity and how financial toxicity is related to patient outcomes and quality of life are warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Impact of Social Discrimination and Financial Hardship on the Sexual Risk of HIV Among Latino and Black Men Who Have Sex With Men

PubMed Central

Bingham, Trista; Kim, Junyeop; Wheeler, Darrell P.; Millett, Gregorio A.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of social discrimination and financial hardship on unprotected anal intercourse with a male sex partner of serodiscordant or unknown HIV status in the past 3 months among 1081 Latino and 1154 Black men who have sex with men (MSM; n = 2235) residing in Los Angeles County, California; New York, New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Methods. We administered HIV testing and a questionnaire assessing 6 explanatory variables. We combined traditional mediation analysis with the results of a path analysis to simultaneously examine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these variables on the outcome variable. Results. Bivariate analysis showed that homophobia, racism, financial hardship, and lack of social support were associated with unprotected anal intercourse with a serodiscordant or sero-unknown partner. Path analysis determined that these relations were mediated by participation in risky sexual situations and lack of social support. However, paths between the explanatory variable and 2 mediating variables varied by participants’ serostatus. Conclusions. Future prevention research and program designs should specifically address the differential impact of social discrimination and financial hardship on lack of social support and risky sexual situations among Latino and Black MSM. PMID:22401516

Financial technical indicator based on chaotic bagging predictors for adaptive stock selection in Japanese and American markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoya; Ohkura, Yuushi

2016-01-01

In order to examine the predictability and profitability of financial markets, we introduce three ideas to improve the traditional technical analysis to detect investment timings more quickly. Firstly, a nonlinear prediction model is considered as an effective way to enhance this detection power by learning complex behavioral patterns hidden in financial markets. Secondly, the bagging algorithm can be applied to quantify the confidence in predictions and compose new technical indicators. Thirdly, we also introduce how to select more profitable stocks to improve investment performance by the two-step selection: the first step selects more predictable stocks during the learning period, and then the second step adaptively and dynamically selects the most confident stock showing the most significant technical signal in each investment. Finally, some investment simulations based on real financial data show that these ideas are successful in overcoming complex financial markets.

Causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia.

PubMed

Farhani, Sahbi; Ozturk, Ilhan

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia over the period of 1971-2012. The long-run relationship is investigated by the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM). The results of the analysis reveal a positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that the financial development in Tunisia has taken place at the expense of environmental pollution. The Tunisian case also shows a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions. This means that the results do not support the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. In addition, the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using Granger causality models and it concludes that financial development plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.

Optimizing financial effects of HIE: a multi-party linear programming approach.

PubMed

Sridhar, Srikrishna; Brennan, Patricia Flatley; Wright, Stephen J; Robinson, Stephen M

2012-01-01

To describe an analytical framework for quantifying the societal savings and financial consequences of a health information exchange (HIE), and to demonstrate its use in designing pricing policies for sustainable HIEs. We developed a linear programming model to (1) quantify the financial worth of HIE information to each of its participating institutions and (2) evaluate three HIE pricing policies: fixed-rate annual, charge per visit, and charge per look-up. We considered three desired outcomes of HIE-related emergency care (modeled as parameters): preventing unrequired hospitalizations, reducing duplicate tests, and avoiding emergency department (ED) visits. We applied this framework to 4639 ED encounters over a 12-month period in three large EDs in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, using Medicare/Medicaid claims data, public reports of hospital admissions, published payer mix data, and use data from a not-for-profit regional HIE. For this HIE, data accesses produced net financial gains for all providers and payers. Gains, due to HIE, were more significant for providers with more health maintenance organizations patients. Reducing unrequired hospitalizations and avoiding repeat ED visits were responsible for more than 70% of the savings. The results showed that fixed annual subscriptions can sustain this HIE, while ensuring financial gains to all participants. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the results were robust to uncertainties in modeling parameters. Our specific HIE pricing recommendations depend on the unique characteristics of this study population. However, our main contribution is the modeling approach, which is broadly applicable to other populations.

Estimating the value of medical education: a net present value approach.

PubMed

Kahn, Marc J; Nelling, Edward F

2010-07-01

Estimating the value of a medical education is a difficult undertaking. As student debt levels rise and the role of managed care in price-setting increases, the financial benefit of an MD degree comes into question. We developed a model using net present value (NPV) analysis for a range of annual costs of medical school attendance. Using this model, we determined the point at which pursuing a medical education is a "break-even" proposition from a financial perspective. The NPV of a medical education was positive for all annual costs of attendance from $10,000 to $100,000 and ranged from approximately $39,000 to $674,000 depending on the discount rate. Assuming a discount rate of 8%, only at an annual cost of attendance of $139,805 was the NPV = $0, which represents the break-even cost of medical education for a prospective student. Medical education is a financially advantageous undertaking for costs of attendance that far exceed even the most expensive schools in the United States. Our analysis suggests that based on economics, the supply of future physicians ought to be secure.

The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fengru

2018-01-01

This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

Relationships between authorship contributions and authors' industry financial ties among oncology clinical trials.

PubMed

Rose, Susannah L; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Joffe, Steven

2010-03-10

PURPOSE To test the hypothesis that authors who play key scientific roles in oncology clinical trials, and who therefore have increased influence over the design, analysis, interpretation or reporting of trials, are more likely than those who do not play such roles to have financial ties to industry. METHODS Data were abstracted from all trials (n = 235) of drugs or biologic agents published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007. Article-level data included sponsorship, age group (adult v pediatric), phase, single versus multicenter, country (United States v other), and number of authors. Author-level data (n = 2,927) included financial ties (eg, employment, consulting) and performance of key scientific roles (ie, conception/design, analysis/interpretation, or manuscript writing). Associations between performance of key roles and financial ties, adjusting for article-level covariates, were examined using generalized linear mixed models. Results One thousand eight hundred eighty-one authors (64%) reported performing at least one key role, and 842 authors (29%) reported at least one financial tie. Authors who reported performing a key role were more likely than other authors to report financial ties to industry (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.3; 99% CI, 3.0 to 6.0; P < .0001). The association was stronger among trials with, compared with those without, industry funding (OR, 5.0 [99% CI, 3.4 to 7.5] v OR, 2.5 [99% CI, 1.3 to 4.8]), but was present regardless of sponsorship. CONCLUSION Authors who perform key roles in the conception and design, analysis, and interpretation, or reporting of oncology clinical trials are more likely than authors who do not perform such roles to have financial ties to industry.

Relationships Between Authorship Contributions and Authors' Industry Financial Ties Among Oncology Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Rose, Susannah L.; Krzyzanowska, Monika K.; Joffe, Steven

2010-01-01

Purpose To test the hypothesis that authors who play key scientific roles in oncology clinical trials, and who therefore have increased influence over the design, analysis, interpretation or reporting of trials, are more likely than those who do not play such roles to have financial ties to industry. Methods Data were abstracted from all trials (n = 235) of drugs or biologic agents published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007. Article-level data included sponsorship, age group (adult v pediatric), phase, single versus multicenter, country (United States v other), and number of authors. Author-level data (n = 2,927) included financial ties (eg, employment, consulting) and performance of key scientific roles (ie, conception/design, analysis/interpretation, or manuscript writing). Associations between performance of key roles and financial ties, adjusting for article-level covariates, were examined using generalized linear mixed models. Results One thousand eight hundred eighty-one authors (64%) reported performing at least one key role, and 842 authors (29%) reported at least one financial tie. Authors who reported performing a key role were more likely than other authors to report financial ties to industry (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.3; 99% CI, 3.0 to 6.0; P < .0001). The association was stronger among trials with, compared with those without, industry funding (OR, 5.0 [99% CI, 3.4 to 7.5] v OR, 2.5 [99% CI, 1.3 to 4.8]), but was present regardless of sponsorship. Conclusion Authors who perform key roles in the conception and design, analysis, and interpretation, or reporting of oncology clinical trials are more likely than authors who do not perform such roles to have financial ties to industry. PMID:20065190

Financial Health Indicators: An Analysis Of Financial Statement Information To Determine The Financial Health Of DOD Contractors

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

STATEMENT INFORMATION TO DETERMINE THE FINANCIAL HEALTH OF DOD CONTRACTORS December 2016 By: Timothy J. Grant Tony L. Ingram Darnell D...AND SUBTITLE FINANCIAL HEALTH INDICATORS: AN ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT INFORMATION TO DETERMINE THE FINANCIAL HEALTH OF DOD CONTRACTORS 5...government contracting officers must be able to determine the financial health of prospective contractors . In fact, according to the Federal Acquisition

Markovian approximation in foreign exchange markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baviera, Roberto; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

2000-06-01

In this paper, using the exit-time statistic, we study the structure of the price variations for the high-frequency data set of the bid-ask Deutschemark/US dollar exchange rate quotes registered by the inter-bank Reuters network over the period October 1, 1992 to September 30, 1993. Having rejected random-walk models for the returns, we propose a Markovian model which reproduce the available information of the financial series. Besides the usual correlation analysis we have verified the validity of this model by means of other tools all inspired by information theory. These techniques are not only severe tests of the approximation but also evidence of some aspects of the data series which have a clear financial relevance.

A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies. PMID:29765399

A Seasonal Time-Series Model Based on Gene Expression Programming for Predicting Financial Distress.

PubMed

Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pang; Yang, Jun-He

2018-01-01

The issue of financial distress prediction plays an important and challenging research topic in the financial field. Currently, there have been many methods for predicting firm bankruptcy and financial crisis, including the artificial intelligence and the traditional statistical methods, and the past studies have shown that the prediction result of the artificial intelligence method is better than the traditional statistical method. Financial statements are quarterly reports; hence, the financial crisis of companies is seasonal time-series data, and the attribute data affecting the financial distress of companies is nonlinear and nonstationary time-series data with fluctuations. Therefore, this study employed the nonlinear attribute selection method to build a nonlinear financial distress prediction model: that is, this paper proposed a novel seasonal time-series gene expression programming model for predicting the financial distress of companies. The proposed model has several advantages including the following: (i) the proposed model is different from the previous models lacking the concept of time series; (ii) the proposed integrated attribute selection method can find the core attributes and reduce high dimensional data; and (iii) the proposed model can generate the rules and mathematical formulas of financial distress for providing references to the investors and decision makers. The result shows that the proposed method is better than the listing classifiers under three criteria; hence, the proposed model has competitive advantages in predicting the financial distress of companies.

The models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on import, export, and foreign exchange reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Wibowo, Supriyadi; Rizky Aristina Suwardi, Vivi

2017-12-01

The severity of the financial crisis that occurred in Indonesia required an early warning system of financial crisis. The financial crisis in Indonesia can be detected based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of the research is to determine an appropriate model to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. Markov switching is an alternative framework for the approach often used in financial crisis detection. Combined volatility and Markov switching model with three states assumptions can be established if an AR and volatility models have been obtained. Imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves data from January 1990 to December 2016 have the heteroscedasticity effect so that an ARCH model is used as a volatility model. Research shows that SWARCH(3.1) model is an appropriate model for detecting financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves.

Examining the effectiveness of municipal solid waste management systems: an integrated cost-benefit analysis perspective with a financial cost modeling in Taiwan.

PubMed

Weng, Yu-Chi; Fujiwara, Takeshi

2011-06-01

In order to develop a sound material-cycle society, cost-effective municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems are required for the municipalities in the context of the integrated accounting system for MSW management. Firstly, this paper attempts to establish an integrated cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework for evaluating the effectiveness of MSW management systems. In this paper, detailed cost/benefit items due to waste problems are particularly clarified. The stakeholders of MSW management systems, including the decision-makers of the municipalities and the citizens, are expected to reconsider the waste problems in depth and thus take wise actions with the aid of the proposed CBA framework. Secondly, focusing on the financial cost, this study develops a generalized methodology to evaluate the financial cost-effectiveness of MSW management systems, simultaneously considering the treatment technological levels and policy effects. The impacts of the influencing factors on the annual total and average financial MSW operation and maintenance (O&M) costs are analyzed in the Taiwanese case study with a demonstrative short-term future projection of the financial costs under scenario analysis. The established methodology would contribute to the evaluation of the current policy measures and to the modification of the policy design for the municipalities. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes to the Student Loan Experience: Psychological Predictors and Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mueller, Thomas

2014-01-01

This study builds on the work of scholars who have explored psychological perceptions of the student loan experience. Survey analysis ("N" = 175) revealed a multidimensional model was developed through factor analysis and testing, which revealed four latent variables: "Duress," "Mandatory," "Financial," and…

[On the ultimate goal of management in Spanish hospitals].

PubMed

Pastor Tejedor, Jesús

2009-01-01

The European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) is the most introduced model in Spanish hospitals. The main target of this model is the internal and external client's satisfaction. The model of strategic management Balanced Scorecard (BSC) facilitates the alignment between management and the mission and vision of hospitals. For this reason, we propose a model of integrated management: EFQM-BSC. In order to obtain the items of this research, a survey was conducted among managers of Spanish hospitals on a battery of 46 indicators, selected from the EFQM model, and prioritised and included in the four perspectives of the BSC model. The research shows two possible models of hypothesis: the client model, where the final effect would be the client perspective (patient, staff and society's satisfaction), or the financial model, where the final effect would be the economic and financial results. After a reliability, dimension analysis and a discriminant analysis, it was obtained more consistent indicators which better explain each perspective. The relationship among these perspectives are determined by structural equations based on methods of partial least squares. The research confirms that the client model reflects a better consistency in its hypothesis.

Working capital management in the process of financial support of investment and construction projects and of the construction material industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danilochkina, Nadezhda; Lukmanova, Inessa; Roshchina, Olga; Voytolovskiy, Nikolay

2018-03-01

The article presents the analysis of working capital in the process of financial support of high-rise construction investment projects. The factors influencing the choice of the working capital management model were analyzed, the reasons of the change in the requirement for the values of current assets in the process of construction of high-rise facilities were determined. The author has developed the scheme of interrelation between production, operational and financial activity cycles of enterprises implementing investment projects of unique buildings and structures and made a comparative description of their financing sources.

Power structure among the actors of financial support to the poor to access health services: Social network analysis approach.

PubMed

Etemadi, Manal; Gorji, Hasan Abolghasem; Kangarani, Hannaneh Mohammadi; Ashtarian, Kioomars

2017-12-01

The extent of universal health coverage in terms of financial protection is worrisome in Iran. There are challenges in health policies to guarantee financial accessibility to health services, especially for poor people. Various institutions offer support to ensure that the poor have financial access to health services. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship network among the institutions active in this field. This study is a policy document analysis. It evaluates the country's legal documents in the field of financial support to the poor for healthcare after the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The researchers looked for the documents on the related websites and referred to the related organizations. The social network analysis approach was chosen for the analysis of the documents. Block-modelling and multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) was used to determine the network structures. The UCINET software was employed to analyse the data. Most the main actors of this network are chosen from the government budget. There is no legal communication and cooperation among some of the actors because of their improper position in the network. Seven blocks have been clustered by CONCOR in terms of the actor's degree of similarity. The social distance among the actors of the seven blocks is very short. Power distribution in the field of financial support to the poor has a fragmented structure; however, it is mainly run by a dominant block consisting of The Supreme Council of Welfare and Social Security, Health Insurance Organization, and the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. The financial support for the poor network involves multiple actors. This variety has created a series of confusions in terms of the type, level, and scope of responsibilities among the actors. The weak presence legislative and regulatory institutions and also non-governmental institutions are the main weak points of this network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The business of death: a qualitative study of financial concerns of widowed older women.

PubMed

DiGiacomo, Michelle; Lewis, Joanne; Phillips, Jane; Nolan, Marie; Davidson, Patricia M

2015-04-18

The feminisation of ageing and increasing number of widowed women in contemporary society has significant implications. Older women are at risk of poor health, social, and economic outcomes upon widowhood. The aim of the study was to describe women's experiences in the period soon after their husbands' death, including their financial issues and concerns, and the ways in which these experiences impacted on the transition to widowhood late in life. This was a longitudinal study using serial in-depth semi-structured interviews with 21 community-dwelling women over the age of 65 in Australia. Verbatim transcripts underwent Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis. Thematic analysis revealed: 1) administrative burden increases vulnerability; 2) gender roles impact on transitions; and 3) financial adjustments render housing insecurity and health risk. High administrative burden within the context of significant grief and mourning was a defining feature of the early bereavement period. Complicated protracted administrative processes, insensitive interactions, and reminders of loss contributed to distress, anxiety and feelings of demoralisation. Several women identified assumption of household financial management as the most difficult aspect of coping with their husband's death. Older women may have unmet needs for assistance with administrative, financial, and legal issues immediately following spousal death and potentially for years afterward. Lack of familiarity and absence of instrumental support with financial and legal issues signal the need for policy reform, resources to improve financial literacy in women throughout the life course, increased advocacy, and consideration of different support and service models.

Individual and Social Influences on Students' Attitudes to Debt: A Cross-National Path Analysis Using Data from England and New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Neil; Agnew, Steve

2016-01-01

This study examines the construction of debt attitudes among 439 first-year undergraduates in England and New Zealand. It works from a conceptual model that predicts that attitudes will be partly determined by a range of social factors, mediated through personality and 'financial literacy'. Path analysis is used to explore this model. The proposed…

Financial hardship, unmet medical need, and health self-efficacy among African American men.

PubMed

Tucker-Seeley, Reginald D; Mitchell, Jamie A; Shires, Deirdre A; Modlin, Charles S

2015-06-01

Health self-efficacy (the confidence to take care of one's health) is a key component in ensuring that individuals are active partners in their health and health care. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between financial hardship and health self-efficacy among African American men and to determine if unmet medical need due to cost potentially mediates this association. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from a convenience sample of African American men who attended a 1-day annual community health fair in Northeast Ohio (N = 279). Modified Poisson regression models were estimated to obtain the relative risk of reporting low health self-efficacy. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, those reporting financial hardship were 2.91 times, RR = 2.91 (confidence interval [1.24, 6.83]; p < .05), more likely to report low health self-efficacy. When unmet medical need due to cost was added to the model, the association between financial hardship and low health self-efficacy was no longer statistically significant. Our results suggest that the association between financial hardship and health self-efficacy can be explained by unmet medical need due to cost. Possible intervention efforts among African American men with low financial resources should consider expanding clinical and community-based health assessments to capture financial hardship and unmet medical need due to cost as potential contributors to low health self-efficacy. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pomeroy, Robert W., III

This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

Financial statement analysis, internal controls, and audit readiness: Bestpractices for Pakistan army financial management officers

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

2012). Noland and Metrejean (2013) emphasize the importance of the internal control environment and cite the June 2010 case of a non -existent...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS, INTERNAL CONTROLS , AND...FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS, INTERNAL CONTROLS , AND AUDIT READINESS: BEST PRACTICES FOR PAKISTAN ARMY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT OFFICERS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6

Application of Factor Analysis on the Financial Ratios of Indian Cement Industry and Validation of the Results by Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, Anupam; Bandyopadhyay, Gautam; Chakraborty, B. N.

2010-10-01

Financial ratio analysis is an important and commonly used tool in analyzing financial health of a firm. Quite a large number of financial ratios, which can be categorized in different groups, are used for this analysis. However, to reduce number of ratios to be used for financial analysis and regrouping them into different groups on basis of empirical evidence, Factor Analysis technique is being used successfully by different researches during the last three decades. In this study Factor Analysis has been applied over audited financial data of Indian cement companies for a period of 10 years. The sample companies are listed on the Stock Exchange India (BSE and NSE). Factor Analysis, conducted over 44 variables (financial ratios) grouped in 7 categories, resulted in 11 underlying categories (factors). Each factor is named in an appropriate manner considering the factor loads and constituent variables (ratios). Representative ratios are identified for each such factor. To validate the results of Factor Analysis and to reach final conclusion regarding the representative ratios, Cluster Analysis had been performed.

Financial implications of a model heart failure disease management program for providers, hospital, healthcare systems, and payer perspectives.

PubMed

Whellan, David J; Reed, Shelby D; Liao, Lawrence; Gould, Stuart D; O'connor, Christopher M; Schulman, Kevin A

2007-01-15

Although heart failure disease management (HFDM) programs improve patient outcomes, the implementation of these programs has been limited because of financial barriers. We undertook the present study to understand the economic incentives and disincentives for adoption of disease management strategies from the perspectives of a physician (group), a hospital, an integrated health system, and a third-party payer. Using the combined results of a group of randomized controlled trials and a set of financial assumptions from a single academic medical center, a financial model was developed to compute the expected costs before and after the implementation of a HFDM program by 3 provider types (physicians, hospitals, and health systems), as well as the costs incurred from a payer perspective. The base-case model showed that implementation of HFDM results in a net financial loss to all potential providers of HFDM. Implementation of HFDM as described in our base-case analysis would create a net loss of US dollars 179,549 in the first year for a physician practice, US dollars 464,132 for an integrated health system, and US dollars 652,643 in the first year for a hospital. Third-party payers would be able to save US dollars 713,661 annually for the care of 350 patients with heart failure in a HFDM program. In conclusion, although HFDM programs may provide patients with improved clinical outcomes and decreased hospitalizations that save third-party payers money, limited financial incentives are currently in place for healthcare providers and hospitals to initiate these programs.

Comparison study of global and local approaches describing critical phenomena on the Polish stock exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarnecki, Łukasz; Grech, Dariusz; Pamuła, Grzegorz

2008-12-01

We confront global and local methods to analyze the financial crash-like events on the Polish financial market from the critical phenomena point of view. These methods are based on the analysis of log-periodicity and the local fractal properties of financial time series in the vicinity of phase transitions (crashes). The whole history (1991-2008) of Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) describing the largest developing financial market in Europe, is analyzed in a daily time horizon. We find that crash-like events on the Polish financial market are described better by the log-divergent price model decorated with log-periodic behavior than the corresponding power-law-divergent price model. Predictions coming from log-periodicity scenario are verified for all main crashes that took place in WIG history. It is argued that crash predictions within log-periodicity model strongly depend on the amount of data taken to make a fit and therefore are likely to contain huge inaccuracies. Turning to local fractal description, we calculate the so-called local (time dependent) Hurst exponent H for the WIG time series and we find the dependence between the behavior of the local fractal properties of the WIG time series and the crashes appearance on the financial market. The latter method seems to work better than the global approach - both for developing as for developed markets. The current situation on the market, particularly related to the Fed intervention in September’07 and the situation on the market immediately after this intervention is also analyzed from the fractional Brownian motion point of view.

A financial model for assessing hospital performance: an application to multi-institutional organizations.

PubMed

Coyne, J S

1986-01-01

The financial growth of investor-owned and not-for-profit hospitals has become an increasingly important research topic. More hospitals are forming multi-institutional organizations (MIOs) in an attempt to achieve greater market share and improve financial self-sufficiency. Few studies have provided a model for systematically analyzing financial growth in MIOs. A financial model is presented here to analyze equity growth. The model is applied to MIOs using recent audited financial data from more than 500 hospitals in 18 MIOs, eight investor-owned and ten not-for-profit. The results indicate that investor-owned MIO hospitals achieve significantly greater equity growth primarily through greater profit margins. The implications of these findings are discussed relative to the increasing price-competitive healthcare environment. The usefulness of the financial model is assessed in terms of its value as a financial diagnostic tool.

Comparing the health and social protection effects of measles vaccination strategies in Ethiopia: An extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Driessen, Julia; Olson, Zachary D; Jamison, Dean T; Verguet, Stéphane

2015-08-01

Vaccination coverage rates often mask wide variation in access, uptake, and cost of providing vaccination. Financial incentives have been effective at creating demand for social services in a variety of settings. Using methods of extended cost-effectiveness analysis, we compare the health and economic implications of three different vaccine delivery strategies for measles vaccination in Ethiopia: i) routine immunization, ii) routine immunization with financial incentives, and iii) mass campaigns, known as supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We examine annual birth cohorts of almost 3,000,000 births over a ten year period, exploring variation in these outcomes based on economic status to understand how various options may improve equity. SIAs naturally achieve higher levels of vaccine coverage, but at higher costs. Routine immunization combined with financial incentives bolsters demand among more economically vulnerable households. The relative appeal of routine immunization with financial incentives and SIAs will depend on the policy environment, including short-term financial limitations, time horizons, and the types of outcomes that are desired. While the impact of financial incentives has been more thoroughly studied in other policy arenas, such as education, consideration of this approach alongside standard vaccination models such as SIAs is timely given the dialog around measles eradication. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Financial Fraud and Scams Among Older Adults in the United States: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Burnes, David; Henderson, Charles R; Sheppard, Christine; Zhao, Rebecca; Pillemer, Karl; Lachs, Mark S

2017-08-01

The financial exploitation of older adults was recently recognized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a serious public health problem. Knowledge of the prevalence of elder financial exploitation is mostly limited to the category of financial abuse, which occurs in relationships involving an expectation of trust. Little is known about the other major category of elder financial exploitation-elder financial fraud and scams, which is perpetrated by strangers. A valid estimate of elder financial fraud-scam prevalence is necessary as a foundation for research and prevention efforts. To estimate the prevalence of elder financial fraud-scam victimization in the United States based on a systematic review and meta-analysis. Multiple investigators independently screened titles and abstracts and reviewed relevant full-text records from PubMed, Medline, PsycINFO, Criminal Justice Abstracts, Social Work Abstracts, and AgeLine databases. To maximize the validity and generalizability of prevalence estimation, we restricted eligibility to general population-based studies (English speaking, 1990 onward) using state- or national-level probability sampling and collecting data directly from older adults. Information on elder financial fraud-scam prevalence and study-level characteristics was extracted independently by 2 investigators. Meta-analysis of elder financial fraud-scam prevalence used generalized mixed models with individual studies as levels of a random classification factor. We included 12 studies involving a total of 41 711 individuals in the meta-analysis. Overall pooled elder financial fraud-scam prevalence (up to 5-year period) across studies was 5.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0%, 7.8%), with a 1-year period prevalence of 5.4% (95% CI = 3.2%, 7.6%). Studies using a series of questions describing specific fraud-scam events to measure victimization found a significantly higher prevalence (7.1%; 95% CI = 4.8%, 9.4%) than studies using a single, general-question self-report assessment approach (3.6%; 95% CI = 1.8%, 5.4%). Elder financial fraud and scams is a common problem, affecting approximately 1 of every 18 cognitively intact, community-dwelling older adults each year; it requires further attention from researchers, clinicians, and policymakers. Elder financial fraud-scam prevalence findings in this study likely underestimate the true population prevalence. We provide methodological recommendations to limit older adult participation and reporting bias in future population-based research. Public Health Implications. Elder financial exploitation victimization is associated with mortality, hospitalization, and poor physical and mental health. Health care professionals working with older adults likely routinely encounter patients who are fraud-scam victims. Validation of instruments to screen for elder financial fraud and scams in clinical settings is an important area of future research. Without effective primary prevention strategies, the absolute scope of this problem will escalate with the growing population of older adults.

Aging and financial planning for retirement: interdisciplinary influences viewed through a cross-cultural lens.

PubMed

Hershey, Douglas A; Henkens, Kene; Van Dalen, Hendrik P

2010-01-01

Current theoretical models support the existence of interactions between the individual and socio-environmental forces when it comes to the formation and enactment of life plans (Friedman & Scholnick, 1997; Shanahan & Elder, 2002). In this investigation, we examine the social, economic, and psychological forces that impact financial planning for retirement. The collective force of these three broad sets of influences was examined from developmental and cross-cultural perspectives, among respondents from two countries with very different retirement financing systems. Participants were 419 American and 556 Dutch working adults, 25-64 years of age. Path analysis models were created to examine differences in planning associated with age and national origin. Compared to younger individuals, older respondents in both countries were more involved in nearly all aspects of the financial planning process. Differences across cultures were also observed in the social support mechanisms that underlie planning and the impact economic forces have on perceptions of saving adequacy. The discussion focuses on the value of developing interdisciplinary theoretical models of planning, and how such models can inform the development of savings-oriented intervention and public policy initiatives.

Methods utilized in evaluating the profitability of commercial space processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloom, H. L.; Schmitt, P. T.

1976-01-01

Profitability analysis is applied to commercial space processing on the basis of business concept definition and assessment and the relationship between ground and space functions. Throughput analysis is demonstrated by analysis of the space manufacturing of surface acoustic wave devices. The paper describes a financial analysis model for space processing and provides key profitability measures for space processed isoenzymes.

Financial-Ratio Analysis and Medical School Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eastaugh, Steven R.

1980-01-01

The value of a uniform program of financial assistance to medical education and research is questioned. Medical schools have an uneven ability to compensate for declining federal capitation and research grants. Financial-ratio analysis and cluster analysis are utilized to suggest four adaptive responses to future financial pressures. (Author/MLW)

Modeling Financial Innovation and Economic Growth: Why the Financial Sector Matters to the Real Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chou, Yuan K.

2007-01-01

The author devises a simple way of incorporating the financial sector into a growth model that is pedagogically useful. Financial innovation raises the efficiency of financial intermediation by increasing the variety of financial products and services, resulting in improved matching of the needs of individual savers with those of firms raising…

Models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on M1, M2 per foreign exchange reverse, and M2 multiplier indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Pratiwi, Esteti Sophia

2017-12-01

Indonesia has been hit by financial crisis in the middle of 1997. The financial crisis that has occurred gives a severe impact to the economy of Indonesia resulting the needs for a detection system of financial crisis. Crisis can be detected based on several indicators such as M1, M2 per foreign exchange reserves, and M2 multiplier. These three indicators can affect the exchange rate stability and may further affect the financial stability so that it can be one of the causes of the financial crisis. This research aims to determine the appropriate model that can detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Markov switching is an alternative model that can be approach and used often for detecting financial crisis. We can determine the combination of volatility and Markov switching model with AR and volatility model are determined first. The results of this research are that M1 can be modelled by SWARCH (3, 1) while M2 per foreign research exchange reserves and M2 multiplier can be modelled by SWARCH(3,2).

Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Yan

2009-01-01

The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

Organizational Constraints and Goal Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putney, Frederick B.; Wotman, Stephen

1978-01-01

Management modeling techniques are applied to setting operational and capital goals using cost analysis techniques in this case study at the Columbia University School of Dental and Oral Surgery. The model was created as a planning tool used in developing a financially feasible operating plan and a 100 percent physical renewal plan. (LBH)

The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios; Ahmed, Ali

2018-04-01

The global financial crisis and the subsequent geopolitical turbulence in energy markets have brought increased attention to the proper statistical modeling especially of the crude oil markets. In particular, we utilize a time-frequency decomposition approach based on wavelet analysis to explore the inherent dynamics and the casual interrelationships between various types of geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty indices and oil markets. Via the introduction of a mixed discrete-continuous multiresolution analysis, we employ the entropic criterion for the selection of the optimal decomposition level of a MODWT as well as the continuous-time coherency and phase measures for the detection of business cycle (a)synchronization. Overall, a strong heterogeneity in the revealed interrelationships is detected over time and across scales.

Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

PubMed Central

Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

PubMed

Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

Lay off: the experience of women and men in Iceland's financial sector.

PubMed

Snorradóttir, Asta; Rafnsdottir, Gudbjörg Linda; Tómasson, Kristinn; Vilhjálmsson, Rúnar

2014-01-01

To analyze gender differences in levels of psychological distress, financial strain, lay off experiences and job search activity among unemployed and re-employed individuals who were laid-off due to the collapse of the financial sector in Iceland in 2008. The study is based on questionnaires distributed to 759 former financial sector employees; 426 responses were received giving a 62.6% response rate. The groups of unemployed and re-employed woman and men are compared using separate multivariate binary models to control for mediating factors. The analysis reveals gender differences in demographic factors and jobs held prior to lay-off. More women than men were psychologically or finically distressed and claimed being shocked by the lay-off. A higher proportion of men than women were re-employed at the time of this study. The main difference between those re-employed and unemployed was lower financial strain among those re-employed for both men and women in this sample. The study does not support the traditional view of men having more difficulties in the lay-off process than women. This calls for a rethinking regarding gender in lay-off and unemployment. A gender-based analysis is needed when considering the ramifications of losing a job and job search activity in the lay-off process.

A study of a diffusive model of asset returns and an empirical analysis of financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alejandro Quinones, Angel Luis

A diffusive model for market dynamics is studied and the predictions of the model are compared to real financial markets. The model has a non-constant diffusion coefficient which depends both on the asset value and the time. A general solution for the distribution of returns is obtained and shown to match the results of computer simulations for two simple cases, piecewise linear and quadratic diffusion. The effects of discreteness in the market dynamics on the model are also studied. For the quadratic diffusion case, a type of phase transition leading to fat tails is observed as the discrete distribution approaches the continuum limit. It is also found that the model captures some of the empirical stylized facts observed in real markets, including fat-tails and scaling behavior in the distribution of returns. An analysis of empirical data for the EUR/USD currency exchange rate and the S&P 500 index is performed. Both markets show time scaling behavior consistent with a value of 1/2 for the Hurst exponent. Finally, the results show that the distribution of returns for the two markets is well fitted by the model, and the corresponding empirical diffusion coefficients are determined.

System Advisor Model, SAM 2014.1.14: General Description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blair, Nate; Dobos, Aron P.; Freeman, Janine

2014-02-01

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2013.9.20, released on September 9, 2013. SAM is a computer model that calculates performance and financial metrics of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of photovoltaic, concentrating solar power, solar water heating, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financial structures for projects thatmore » either buy and sell electricity at retail rates (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). SAM's advanced simulation options facilitate parametric and sensitivity analyses, and statistical analysis capabilities are available for Monte Carlo simulation and weather variability (P50/P90) studies. SAM can also read input variables from Microsoft Excel worksheets. For software developers, the SAM software development kit (SDK) makes it possible to use SAM simulation modules in their applications written in C/C++, C#, Java, Python, and MATLAB. NREL provides both SAM and the SDK as free downloads at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.« less

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk.

PubMed

Guttal, Vishwesha; Raghavendra, Srinivas; Goel, Nikunj; Hoarau, Quentin

2016-01-01

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

PubMed Central

Hoarau, Quentin

2016-01-01

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

Effectiveness of and Financial Returns to Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in South Africa: An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Haacker, Markus; Fraser-Hurt, Nicole; Gorgens, Marelize

2016-05-01

Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period. The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government. VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age.

Dynamics of analyst forecasts and emergence of complexity: Role of information disparity

PubMed Central

Ahn, Kwangwon

2017-01-01

We report complex phenomena arising among financial analysts, who gather information and generate investment advice, and elucidate them with the help of a theoretical model. Understanding how analysts form their forecasts is important in better understanding the financial market. Carrying out big-data analysis of the analyst forecast data from I/B/E/S for nearly thirty years, we find skew distributions as evidence for emergence of complexity, and show how information asymmetry or disparity affects financial analysts’ forming their forecasts. Here regulations, information dissemination throughout a fiscal year, and interactions among financial analysts are regarded as the proxy for a lower level of information disparity. It is found that financial analysts with better access to information display contrasting behaviors: a few analysts become bolder and issue forecasts independent of other forecasts while the majority of analysts issue more accurate forecasts and flock to each other. Main body of our sample of optimistic forecasts fits a log-normal distribution, with the tail displaying a power law. Based on the Yule process, we propose a model for the dynamics of issuing forecasts, incorporating interactions between analysts. Explaining nicely empirical data on analyst forecasts, this provides an appealing instance of understanding social phenomena in the perspective of complex systems. PMID:28498831

Theoretical bases of project management in conditions of innovative economy based on fuzzy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beilin, I. L.; Khomenko, V. V.

2018-05-01

In recent years, more and more Russian enterprises (both private and public) are trying to organize their activities on the basis of modern scientific research in order to improve the management of economic processes. Business planning, financial and investment analysis, modern software products based on the latest scientific developments are introduced everywhere. At the same time, there is a growing demand for market research (both at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels), for financial and general economic information.

The financial viability of an SOFC cogeneration system in single-family dwellings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alanne, Kari; Saari, Arto; Ugursal, V. Ismet; Good, Joel

In the near future, fuel cell-based residential micro-CHP systems will compete with traditional methods of energy supply. A micro-CHP system may be considered viable if its incremental capital cost compared to its competitors equals to cumulated savings during a given period of time. A simplified model is developed in this study to estimate the operation of a residential solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system. A comparative assessment of the SOFC system vis-à-vis heating systems based on gas, oil and electricity is conducted using the simplified model for a single-family house located in Ottawa and Vancouver. The energy consumption of the house is estimated using the HOT2000 building simulation program. A financial analysis is carried out to evaluate the sensitivity of the maximum allowable capital cost with respect to system sizing, acceptable payback period, energy price and the electricity buyback strategy of an energy utility. Based on the financial analysis, small (1-2 kW e) SOFC systems seem to be feasible in the considered case. The present study shows also that an SOFC system is especially an alternative to heating systems based on oil and electrical furnaces.

Flow of Funds Modeling for Localized Financial Markets: An Application of Spatial Price and Allocation Activity Analysis Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

on modeling the managerial aspects of the firm. The second has been the application to economic theory led by ...individual portfolio optimization problems which were embedded in a larger global optimization problem. In the global problem, portfolios were linked by market ...demand quantities or be given by linear demand relationships. As in~ the source markets , the model

Financial Reporting under GASB Statement No. 34 and ASBO International Certificate of Excellence Financial Reporting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heinfeld, Gary

This guide presents a financial model that affects all governmental entities that issue financial statements in conformity with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The model was prepared to provide school business officials specific examples of school system financial-statement presentations. The guide is divided into six chapters.…

A Framework for Statewide Analysis of Site Suitability, Energy Estimation, Life Cycle Costs, Financial Feasibility and Environmental Assessment of Wind Farms: A Case Study of Indiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Indraneel

In the last decade, Midwestern states including Indiana have experienced an unprecedented growth in utility scale wind energy farms. For example, by end of 2013, Indiana had 1.5 GW of wind turbines installed, which could provide electrical energy for as many as half-a-million homes. However, there is no statewide systematic framework available for the evaluation of wind farm impacts on endangered species, required necessary setbacks and proximity standards to infrastructure, and life cycle costs. This research is guided to fill that gap and it addresses the following questions. How much land is suitable for wind farm siting in Indiana given the constraints of environmental, ecological, cultural, settlement, physical infrastructure and wind resource parameters? How much wind energy can be obtained? What are the life cycle costs and economic and financial feasibility? Is wind energy production and development in a state an emission free undertaking? The framework developed in the study is applied to a case study of Indiana. A fuzzy logic based AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) spatial site suitability analysis for wind energy is formulated. The magnitude of wind energy that could be sited and installed comprises input for economic and financial feasibility analysis for 20-25 years life cycle of wind turbines in Indiana. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for uncertainty and nonlinearity in various costs and price parameters. Impacts of incentives and cost variables such as production tax credits, costs of capital, and economies of scale are assessed. Further, an economic input-output (IO) based environmental assessment model is developed for wind energy, where costs from financial feasibility analysis constitute the final demand vectors. This customized model for Indiana is used to assess emissions for criteria air pollutants, hazardous air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) across life cycle events of wind turbines. The findings of the case study include that, Indiana has adequate suitable land area available to locate wind farms with installed capacity between 11 and 51 GW if 100 meters high turbines are used. For a 1.5 MW standard wind turbine, financial feasibility analysis shows that production tax credits and property tax abatements are helpful for financial success in Indiana. Also, the wind energy is not entirely emission free if life cycle events of wind turbine manufacturing, production, installation, construction and decommissioning are considered. The research developed a replicable and integrated framework for statewide life cycle analysis of wind energy production accounting for uncertainty into the analyses. Considering the complexity of life cycle analysis and lack of state specific data on performance of wind turbines and wind farms, this study should be considered an intermediate step.

Financial Analysis: A Review of the Methods and Their Application to Employee Training. Training and Development Research Center Project Number Nine.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosier, Nancy R.

Financial analysis techniques are tools that help managers make sound financial decisions that contribute to general corporate objectives. A literature review reveals that the most commonly used financial analysis techniques are payback time, average rate of return, present value or present worth, and internal rate of return. Despite the success…

An Application of Instructional System Development to Determine Financial Management Education Needs for Logistics Management Positions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-09-01

The purpose of this research effort was to determine the financial management educational needs of USAF graduate logistics positions. Goal analysis...was used to identify financial management techniques and task analysis was used to develop a method to identify the use of financial management techniques...positions. The survey identified financial management techniques in five areas: cost accounting, capital budgeting, working capital, financial forecasting, and programming. (Author)

A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

2005-01-01

Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

Teaching ABC & Cost Behaviors to Non-Numbers People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Virginia Anne; Rudnick, Martin

2007-01-01

Simply put, a cost analysis studies how you spend your money. Activity based costing models associate costs with services and cost benefit analysis weighs whether or not the costs expended were worth the money given the efforts involved and the results achieved. This study seeks to understand the financial choices and information seeking behaviors…

Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 2006 through 2010.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poch, L. A.; Veselka, T. D.; Palmer, C. S.

2011-08-22

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. A report released in January 2011 examined the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCDmore » from 1997 to 2005. This report continues the analysis and examines the financial implications of the experimental flows conducted at the GCD from 2006 to 2010. An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes both that operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and the experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP powerplant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases, the GTMax model was also used to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions that were made to criteria to accommodate the experimental releases, and Western operating practices. Experimental releases in some water years resulted in financial benefits to Western while others resulted in financial costs. During the study period, the total financial costs of all experimental releases were more than $4.8 million.« less

Financial socialization of first-year college students: the roles of parents, work, and education.

PubMed

Shim, Soyeon; Barber, Bonnie L; Card, Noel A; Xiao, Jing Jian; Serido, Joyce

2010-12-01

This cross-sectional study tests a conceptual financial socialization process model, specifying four-levels that connect anticipatory socialization during adolescence to young adults' current financial learning, to their financial attitudes, and to their financial behavior. A total of 2,098 first-year college students (61.9% females) participated in the survey, representing a diverse ethnic group (32.6% minority participation: Hispanic 14.9%, Asian/Asian American 9%, Black 3.4%, Native American 1.8% and other 3.5%). Structural equation modeling indicated that parents, work, and high school financial education during adolescence predicted young adults' current financial learning, attitude and behavior, with the role played by parents substantially greater than the role played by work experience and high school financial education combined. Data also supported the proposed hierarchical financial socialization four-level model, indicating that early financial socialization is related to financial learning, which in turn is related to financial attitudes and subsequently to financial behavior. The study presents a discussion of how the theories of consumer socialization and planned behavior were combined effectively to depict the financial development of young adults. Several practical implications are also provided for parents, educators and students.

Management Models and Cost Analysis for Regional Special Education Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connors, Eugene T.

The implementation of the Education for All Handicapped Children Act (PL 94-142) has placed an enormous financial burden on local districts. In order to create special education programs that combine cost effectiveness and high quality, a regional model has been developed. The Therapeutic Residential Experience for Emotional Stability (TREES) in…

An Analysis of the Predicted Benefits of Multi-Year Procurement

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

concerned with these issues. The researchers were especially concerned with model sensitivity to parameters used in the financial sector. Model validation is...TECHNOLOGY (ATC) WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OH 45433 qEK•Y TO RrNov O i 5 April 1982 suata Survey of Educacion With Industry Students To LS I fully

An Analysis of Resources To Aid Drug-Exposed Infants and Their Families.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Budetti, Peter; And Others

This document describes a comprehensive service delivery model for drug-exposed infants and their families, provides a compendium of programs and funding sources that target the needs of these families, and delineates areas in need of financial support and further exploration. Development of the model required a literature review, interviews, and…

[Healthcare value chain: a model for the Brazilian healthcare system].

PubMed

Pedroso, Marcelo Caldeira; Malik, Ana Maria

2012-10-01

This article presents a model of the healthcare value chain which consists of a schematic representation of the Brazilian healthcare system. The proposed model is adapted for the Brazilian reality and has the scope and flexibility for use in academic activities and analysis of the healthcare sector in Brazil. It places emphasis on three components: the main activities of the value chain, grouped in vertical and horizontal links; the mission of each link and the main value chain flows. The proposed model consists of six vertical and three horizontal links, amounting to nine. These are: knowledge development; supply of products and technologies; healthcare services; financial intermediation; healthcare financing; healthcare consumption; regulation; distribution of healthcare products; and complementary and support services. Four flows can be used to analyze the value chain: knowledge and innovation; products and services; financial; and information.

A heterogeneous artificial stock market model can benefit people against another financial crisis

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This paper presents results of an artificial stock market and tries to make it more consistent with the statistical features of real stock data. Based on the SFI-ASM, a novel model is proposed to make agents more close to the real world. Agents are divided into four kinds in terms of different learning speeds, strategy-sizes, utility functions, and level of intelligence; and a crucial parameter has been found to ensure system stability. So, some parameters are appended to make the model which contains zero-intelligent and less-intelligent agents run steadily. Moreover, considering real stock markets change violently due to the financial crisis; the real stock markets are divided into two segments, before the financial crisis and after it. The optimal modified model before the financial crisis fails to replicate the statistical features of the real market after the financial crisis. Then, the optimal model after the financial crisis is shown. The experiments indicate that the optimal model after the financial crisis is able to replicate several of real market phenomena, including the first-order autocorrelation, kurtosis, standard deviation of yield series and first-order autocorrelation of yield square. We point out that there is a structural change in stock markets after the financial crisis, which can benefit people forecast the financial crisis. PMID:29912893

A heterogeneous artificial stock market model can benefit people against another financial crisis.

PubMed

Yang, Haijun; Chen, Shuheng

2018-01-01

This paper presents results of an artificial stock market and tries to make it more consistent with the statistical features of real stock data. Based on the SFI-ASM, a novel model is proposed to make agents more close to the real world. Agents are divided into four kinds in terms of different learning speeds, strategy-sizes, utility functions, and level of intelligence; and a crucial parameter has been found to ensure system stability. So, some parameters are appended to make the model which contains zero-intelligent and less-intelligent agents run steadily. Moreover, considering real stock markets change violently due to the financial crisis; the real stock markets are divided into two segments, before the financial crisis and after it. The optimal modified model before the financial crisis fails to replicate the statistical features of the real market after the financial crisis. Then, the optimal model after the financial crisis is shown. The experiments indicate that the optimal model after the financial crisis is able to replicate several of real market phenomena, including the first-order autocorrelation, kurtosis, standard deviation of yield series and first-order autocorrelation of yield square. We point out that there is a structural change in stock markets after the financial crisis, which can benefit people forecast the financial crisis.

Models of Educational Attainment: A Theoretical and Methodological Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrne, D. S.; And Others

1973-01-01

Uses cluster analysis techniques to show that egalitarian policies in secondary education coupled with high financial inputs have measurable payoffs in higher attainment rates, based on Max Weber's notion of power'' within a community. (Author/JM)

Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

PubMed

Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

Financial appraisal of wet mesophilic AD technology as a renewable energy and waste management technology.

PubMed

Dolan, T; Cook, M B; Angus, A J

2011-06-01

Anaerobic digestion (AD) has the potential to support diversion of organic waste from landfill and increase renewable energy production. However, diffusion of this technology has been uneven, with countries such as Germany and Sweden taking the lead, but limited diffusion in other countries such as the UK. In this context, this study explores the financial viability of AD in the UK to offer reasons why it has not been more widely used. This paper presents a model that calculates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on a twenty year investment in a 30,000 tonnes per annum wet mesophilic AD plant in the UK for the treatment of source separated organic waste, which is judged to be a suitable technology for the UK climate. The model evaluates the financial significance of the different alternative energy outputs from this AD plant and the resulting economic subsidies paid for renewable energy. Results show that renewable electricity and renewable heat sales supported by renewable electricity and renewable heat tariffs generates the greatest IRR (31.26%). All other uses of biogas generate an IRR in excess of 15%, and are judged to be a financially viable investment. Sensitivity analysis highlights the financial significance of: economic incentive payments and a waste management gate fee; and demonstrates that the fate of the digestate by-product is a source of financial uncertainty for AD investors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dimension reduction and multiscaling law through source extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capobianco, Enrico

2003-04-01

Through the empirical analysis of financial return generating processes one may find features that are common to other research fields, such as internet data from network traffic, physiological studies about human heart beat, speech and sleep recorded time series, geophysics signals, just to mention well-known cases of study. In particular, long range dependence, intermittency, heteroscedasticity are clearly appearing, and consequently power laws and multi-scaling behavior result typical signatures of either the spectral or the time correlation diagnostics. We study these features and the dynamics underlying financial volatility, which can respectively be detected and inferred from high frequency realizations of stock index returns, and show that they vary according to the resolution levels used for both the analysis and the synthesis of the available information. Discovering whether the volatility dynamics are subject to changes in scaling regimes requires the consideration of a model embedding scale-dependent information packets, thus accounting for possible heterogeneous activity occurring in financial markets. Independent component analysis result to be an important tool for reducing the dimension of the problem and calibrating greedy approximation techniques aimed to learn the structure of the underlying volatility.

Using a Mixed Model to Explore Evaluation Criteria for Bank Supervision: A Banking Supervision Law Perspective

PubMed Central

Tsai, Sang-Bing; Chen, Kuan-Yu; Zhao, Hongrui; Wei, Yu-Min; Wang, Cheng-Kuang; Zheng, Yuxiang; Chang, Li-Chung; Wang, Jiangtao

2016-01-01

Financial supervision means that monetary authorities have the power to supervise and manage financial institutions according to laws. Monetary authorities have this power because of the requirements of improving financial services, protecting the rights of depositors, adapting to industrial development, ensuring financial fair trade, and maintaining stable financial order. To establish evaluation criteria for bank supervision in China, this study integrated fuzzy theory and the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and proposes a fuzzy-DEMATEL model. First, fuzzy theory was applied to examine bank supervision criteria and analyze fuzzy semantics. Second, the fuzzy-DEMATEL model was used to calculate the degree to which financial supervision criteria mutually influenced one another and their causal relationship. Finally, an evaluation criteria model for evaluating bank and financial supervision was established. PMID:27992449

Using a Mixed Model to Explore Evaluation Criteria for Bank Supervision: A Banking Supervision Law Perspective.

PubMed

Tsai, Sang-Bing; Chen, Kuan-Yu; Zhao, Hongrui; Wei, Yu-Min; Wang, Cheng-Kuang; Zheng, Yuxiang; Chang, Li-Chung; Wang, Jiangtao

2016-01-01

Financial supervision means that monetary authorities have the power to supervise and manage financial institutions according to laws. Monetary authorities have this power because of the requirements of improving financial services, protecting the rights of depositors, adapting to industrial development, ensuring financial fair trade, and maintaining stable financial order. To establish evaluation criteria for bank supervision in China, this study integrated fuzzy theory and the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and proposes a fuzzy-DEMATEL model. First, fuzzy theory was applied to examine bank supervision criteria and analyze fuzzy semantics. Second, the fuzzy-DEMATEL model was used to calculate the degree to which financial supervision criteria mutually influenced one another and their causal relationship. Finally, an evaluation criteria model for evaluating bank and financial supervision was established.

Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

2016-04-01

It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

Development of a methodology for the detection of hospital financial outliers using information systems.

PubMed

Okada, Sachiko; Nagase, Keisuke; Ito, Ayako; Ando, Fumihiko; Nakagawa, Yoshiaki; Okamoto, Kazuya; Kume, Naoto; Takemura, Tadamasa; Kuroda, Tomohiro; Yoshihara, Hiroyuki

2014-01-01

Comparison of financial indices helps to illustrate differences in operations and efficiency among similar hospitals. Outlier data tend to influence statistical indices, and so detection of outliers is desirable. Development of a methodology for financial outlier detection using information systems will help to reduce the time and effort required, eliminate the subjective elements in detection of outlier data, and improve the efficiency and quality of analysis. The purpose of this research was to develop such a methodology. Financial outliers were defined based on a case model. An outlier-detection method using the distances between cases in multi-dimensional space is proposed. Experiments using three diagnosis groups indicated successful detection of cases for which the profitability and income structure differed from other cases. Therefore, the method proposed here can be used to detect outliers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item response theory analysis of the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale.

PubMed

Teresi, Jeanne A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Lichtenberg, Peter A

2017-01-01

The focus of these analyses was to examine the psychometric properties of the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS). The purpose of the screen was to evaluate the decisional abilities and vulnerability to exploitation of older adults. Adults aged 60 and over were interviewed by social, legal, financial, or health services professionals who underwent in-person training on the administration and scoring of the scale. Professionals provided a rating of the decision-making abilities of the older adult. The analytic sample included 213 individuals with an average age of 76.9 (SD = 10.1). The majority (57%) were female. Data were analyzed using item response theory (IRT) methodology. The results supported the unidimensionality of the item set. Several IRT models were tested. Ten ordinal and binary items evidenced a slightly higher reliability estimate (0.85) than other versions and better coverage in terms of the range of reliable measurement across the continuum of financial incapacity.

Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi

2017-09-01

Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

Securing Healthcare’s Quantified-Self Data: A Comparative Analysis Versus Personal Financial Account Aggregators Based on Porter’s Five Forces Framework for Competitive Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

HEALTHCARE’S QUANTIFIED-SELF DATA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS VERSUS PERSONAL FINANCIAL ACCOUNT AGGREGATORS BASED ON PORTER’S FIVE FORCES FRAMEWORK FOR...TITLE AND SUBTITLE SECURING HEALTHCARE’S QUANTIFIED-SELF DATA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS VERSUS PERSONAL FINANCIAL ACCOUNT AGGREGATORS BASED ON...Distribution is unlimited. SECURING HEALTHCARE’S QUANTIFIED-SELF DATA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS VERSUS PERSONAL FINANCIAL ACCOUNT AGGREGATORS BASED ON

Developing and Validating the Scale of Economic Self-Efficacy.

PubMed

Hoge, Gretchen L; Stylianou, Amanda M; Hetling, Andrea; Postmus, Judy L

2017-05-01

Experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) and financial hardship are often intertwined. The dynamics of an abusive relationship may include economic abuse tactics that compromise a survivor's ability to work, pursue education, have access to financial resources, and establish financial skills, knowledge, and security. An increasingly common goal among programs serving IPV survivors is increasing financial empowerment through financial literacy. However, providing financial education alone may not be enough to improve financial behaviors. Psychological factors also play a role when individuals make financial choices. Economic self-efficacy focuses on the individual's perceived ability to perform economic or financial tasks, and may be considered a primary influence on one's ability to improve financial decisions and behaviors. The current study tests the reliability and validity of a Scale of Economic Self-Efficacy with a sample of female survivors of IPV. This study uses a calibration and validation analysis model including full and split-sample exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, assesses for internal consistency, and examines correlation coefficients between economic self-efficacy, economic self-sufficiency, financial strain, and difficulty living with income. Findings indicate that the 10-item, unidimensional Scale of Economic Self-Efficacy demonstrates strong reliability and validity among this sample of IPV survivors. An ability to understand economic self-efficacy could facilitate individualized service approaches and allow practitioners to better support IPV survivors on their journey toward financial empowerment. Given the increase in programs focused on assets, financial empowerment, and economic well-being, the Scale of Economic Self-Efficacy has potential as a very timely and relevant tool in the design, implementation, and evaluation of such programs, and specifically for programs created for IPV survivors.

A Hybrid Approach of Stepwise Regression, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree for Forecasting Fraudulent Financial Statements

PubMed Central

Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%. PMID:25302338

A hybrid approach of stepwise regression, logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree for forecasting fraudulent financial statements.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan; Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%.

Decision science: a scientific approach to enhance public health budgeting.

PubMed

Honoré, Peggy A; Fos, Peter J; Smith, Torney; Riley, Michael; Kramarz, Kim

2010-01-01

The allocation of resources for public health programming is a complicated and daunting responsibility. Financial decision-making processes within public health agencies are especially difficult when not supported with techniques for prioritizing and ranking alternatives. This article presents a case study of a decision analysis software model that was applied to the process of identifying funding priorities for public health services in the Spokane Regional Health District. Results on the use of this decision support system provide insights into how decision science models, which have been used for decades in business and industry, can be successfully applied to public health budgeting as a means of strengthening agency financial management processes.

Framework for Financial Ratio Analysis of Audited Federal Financial Reports

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-01

franchising operations, allowing them to lower costs and share administrative support services with other agencies. [Ref. 60:sec. 402-403] The GMRA also...96 Federal Financial Reporting Statement of Net Cost Report Format 97 Federal Financial Reporting Statement of Changes in Net Position Report Format...analysis for sales, profitability, efficiency, marketing, investment, debt and capital analysis. Monitor growth Monitor costs Measure profitability and

Finances and well-being: a dynamic equilibrium model of resources.

PubMed

Gorgievski-Duijvesteijn, Marjan J; Bakker, Arnold B; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; van der Heijden, Peter G M

2005-07-01

This study of 513 Dutch farmers tested a dynamic equilibrium model of resources (an extension of the conservation of resources theory; S. E. Hobfoll, 1989, 1998, 2001). With structural equation modeling, the advantages of a 3-wave longitudinal design were comprehensively used, such as addressing bidirectional causal effects and within-individual vs. between-individual change. This allowed for a careful analysis of the management function of resources in the stress process. Results showed that well-being had stronger within-person stability than finances. Increased levels of financial problems temporarily increased psychological distress but not self-reported illness. Conversely, farmers with higher stable baselines of psychological distress also had higher baselines of self-reported illness and experienced more negative changes in their financial situation. Copyright (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

PubMed Central

Häsler, Barbara; Alarcon, Pablo; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Rushton, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Aims and objectives The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the financial impact of Schmallenberg disease for different dairy production types in the United Kingdom and France. Materials and methods Integrated production and financial models for dairy cattle were developed and applied to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) disease in a British and French context. The five main production systems that prevail in these two countries were considered. Their respective gross margins measuring the holding's profitability were calculated based on public benchmarking, literature and expert opinion data. A partial budget analysis was performed within each production model to estimate the impact of SBV in the systems modelled. Two disease scenarios were simulated: low impact and high impact. Results The model gross margin obtained per cow space and year ranged from £1014 to £1484 for the UK and from £1037 to £1890 for France depending on the production system considered. In the UK, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year for an average dairy farm with 100 milking spaces were estimated between £16.3 and £51.4 in the high-impact scenario and between £8.2 and £25.9 in the low-impact scenario. For France, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year ranged from £19.6 to £48.6 in the high-impact scenario and £9.7 to £22.8 in the low-impact scenario, respectively. Conclusion The study illustrates how the combination of production and financial models allows assessing disease impact taking into account differing management and husbandry practices and associated price structures in the dairy sector. It supports decision-making of farmers and veterinarians who are considering disease control measures as it provides an approach to estimate baseline disease impact in common dairy production systems in the UK and France. PMID:26392883

Market Motivations for Voluntary Carbon Disclosure in Real Estate Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ufere, Kalu Joseph; Alias, Buang; Godwin Uche, Aliagha

2016-07-01

Climate change mitigation in developing economies is a balancing act, between economic development and environmental sustainability. The need for market friendly determinants for low carbon economy, without compromising economic development is of essence. The aim of the study is to determine market friendly factors, which motivates voluntary carbon information disclosure, in the real estate industry. The study modeled economic factor with three variables and financial market factor with three variables against voluntary carbon information disclosure in the real estate industry. Structural equation modeling was used for the modeling and content analysis was used to collect data on the level of voluntary carbon information disclosure, from 2013 annual reports of 126 real estate sector companies listed in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). The model achieved a good fit, and was acceptable prediction. The results show that financial market factor has a significant predictive influence on voluntary carbon disclosure. The application of the result is that financial market factor is has a significantly positive influence on companies’ willingness to make voluntary carbon disclosure in the real estate industry. The result may be limited to the real estate industry that is highly leveraged on syndicated fund.

Assessing Medicare's Approach To Covering New Drugs In Bundled Payments For Oncology.

PubMed

Muldoon, L Daniel; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Lang, Kelsey A; Vandigo, Joe; Pyenson, Bruce S

2018-05-01

New oncology therapies can contribute to survival or quality of life, but payers and policy makers have raised concerns about the cost of these therapies. Similar concerns extend beyond cancer. In seeking a solution, payers are increasingly turning toward value-based payment models in which providers take financial risk for costs and outcomes. These models, including episode payment and bundled payment, create financial gains for providers who reduce cost, but they also create concerns about potential stinting on necessary treatments. One approach, which the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services adopted in the Oncology Care Model (OCM), is to partially adjust medical practices' budgets for their use of novel therapies, defined in this case as new oncology drugs or new indications for existing drugs approved after December 31, 2014. In an analysis of the OCM novel therapies adjustment using historical Medicare claims data, we found that the adjustment may provide important financial protection for practices. In a simulation we performed, the adjustment reduced the average loss per treatment episode by $758 (from $807 to $49) for large practices that use novel therapies often. Lessons from the OCM can have implications for other alternative payment models.

Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Financial Stress in Survivors of Critical Illness.

PubMed

Khandelwal, Nita; Hough, Catherine L; Downey, Lois; Engelberg, Ruth A; Carson, Shannon S; White, Douglas B; Kahn, Jeremy M; Jones, Derek M; Key, Mary D; Reagan, Wen; Porter, Laura S; Curtis, J Randall; Cox, Christopher E

2018-06-01

Little is known about the experience of financial stress for patients who survive critical illness or their families. Our objective was to describe the prevalence of financial stress among critically ill patients and their families, identify clinical and demographic characteristics associated with this stress, and explore associations between financial stress and psychologic distress. Secondary analysis of a randomized trial comparing a coping skills training program and an education program for patients surviving acute respiratory failure and their families. Five geographically diverse hospitals. Patients (n = 175) and their family members (n = 85) completed surveys within 2 weeks of arrival home and 3 and 6 months after randomization. We used regression analyses to assess associations between patient and family characteristics at baseline and financial stress at 3 and 6 months. We used path models and mediation analyses to explore relationships between financial stress, symptoms of anxiety and depression, and global mental health. Serious financial stress was high at both time points and was highest at 6 months (42.5%) among patients and at 3 months (48.5%) among family members. Factors associated with financial stress included female sex, young children at home, and baseline financial discomfort. Experiencing financial stress had direct effects on symptoms of anxiety (β = 0.260; p < 0.001) and depression (β = 0.048; p = 0.048). Financial stress after critical illness is common and associated with symptoms of anxiety and depression. Our findings provide direction for potential interventions to reduce this stress and improve psychologic outcomes for patients and their families.

Financial Measures Conference: Uses of College and University Financial Assessment in Institutional Management and Public Policy Analysis. Proceedings of the 1980 Working Conference (Annapolis, Maryland, October 23-24, 1980).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stich, Judith, Ed.

Proceedings of the 1980 Financial Measures Conference are presented. Papers and authors are as follows: "Ratio Analysis in Higher Education" (John Minter); "Computerized Application of Financial Assessment Technology" (Daniel Updegrove and Stephen D. Campbell); "The Uses and Utility of HEGIS Financial Data" (Loyd…

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Using Financial Ratios to Select Companies for Tax Auditing: A Preliminary Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marghescu, Dorina; Kallio, Minna; Back, Barbro

Tax auditing procedures include an investigation of the accounting records of a company and of other sources of information in order to assess whether the taxation has been based on correct and complete information. When there are found discrepancies between the accounting information and the real situation, the taxation should be corrected so that the eventual tax defaults are assessed and debited. The paper analyzes to what extent the financial performance of a company can be used as an indicator of tax defaults. We focus on one type of tax, namely employer's contribution, and four financial ratios. We evaluate the model in a study of Finnish companies by using a binomial logistic regression analysis. The study is exploratory and at a preliminary stage.

Financial Mathematical Tasks in a Middle School Mathematics Textbook Series: A Content Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamburg, Maryanna P.

2009-01-01

This content analysis examined the distribution of financial mathematical tasks (FMTs), mathematical tasks that contain financial terminology and require financially related solutions, across the National Standards in K-12 Personal Finance Education categories (JumpStart Coalition, 2007), the thinking skills as identified by "A Taxonomy for…

The Financial Resilience of Independent Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chessman, Hollie M.; Hartley, Harold V., III; Williams, Michael

2017-01-01

This report explores the financial resilience of independent colleges and universities through an analysis of 14 years (fiscal years 2001-2014) of financial data from 559 private nondoctoral institutions. Through analysis of financial performance in several domains, the data reveal that the majority of independent baccalaureate and master's-level…

Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

2018-02-01

We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

Ethical, financial, and legal considerations to implementing emergency department HIV screening: a report from the 2007 conference of the National Emergency Department HIV Testing Consortium.

PubMed

Waxman, Michael J; Popick, Rachel S; Merchant, Roland C; Rothman, Richard E; Shahan, Judy B; Almond, Gregory

2011-07-01

We seek to identify and analyze, from a group of participants experienced with HIV screening, the perceived challenges and solutions to the ethical, financial, and legal considerations of emergency department (ED)-based HIV screening. We performed a qualitative analysis of the focus group discussions from the ethical, financial, and legal considerations portion of the inaugural National Emergency Department HIV Testing Consortium conference. Four groups composed of 20 to 25 consortium participants engaged in semistructured, facilitated focus group discussions. The focus group discussions were audiotaped and transcribed. A primary reader identified major themes and subthemes and representative quotes from the transcripts and summarized the discussions. Secondary and tertiary readers reviewed the themes, subthemes, and summaries for accuracy. The focus group discussions centered on the following themes. Ethical considerations included appropriateness of HIV screening in the ED and ethics of key elements of the 2006 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention HIV testing recommendations. Financial considerations included models of payment and support, role of health care insurance, financial ethics and downstream financial burdens, and advocacy approaches. Legal considerations included the adequacy of obtaining consent, partner notification, disclosure of HIV results, difficulties in addressing special populations, failure of not performing universal screening, failure to notify a person of being tested, failure to notify someone of their test results, liability of inaccurate tests, and failure to link to care. This qualitative analysis provides a broadly useful foundation to the ethical, financial, and legal considerations of implementing HIV screening programs in EDs throughout the United States. Copyright © 2011. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Cognitive correlates of financial abilities in mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Okonkwo, Ozioma C; Wadley, Virginia G; Griffith, H Randall; Ball, Karlene; Marson, Daniel C

2006-11-01

To investigate the cognitive correlates of financial abilities in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Controlled, matched-sample, cross-sectional analysis regressing five cognitive composites on financial performance measures. University medical and research centers. Forty-three persons with MCI and 43 normal controls. The Financial Capacity Instrument (FCI) and a comprehensive neurocognitive battery. Patients with MCI performed significantly worse than controls on cognitive domains of executive function, memory, and language and on FCI domains of financial conceptual knowledge, bank statement management, and bill payment. Patients with MCI also needed significantly more time to complete a multistep financial task and were significantly more likely than controls to make errors on this task. Stepwise regression models revealed that, within the MCI group, attention and executive function were significant correlates of FCI performance. Although impaired memory is the cardinal deficit in MCI, the neurocognitive basis of lower functional performance in MCI appears to be emergent declines in abilities to selectively attend, self-monitor, and temporally integrate information. Compromised performance on cognitive measures of attention and executive function may constitute clinical markers of lower financial abilities and should be evaluated for its relationship to functional ability in general. These cognitive domains may be appropriate targets of future intervention studies aimed at preservation of functional independence in people with MCI.

When Advisors' True Intentions Are in Question. How Do Bank Customers Cope with Uncertainty in Financial Consultancies?

PubMed

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva; Mühlberger, Christina

2017-01-01

When making financial decisions bank customers are confronted with two types of uncertainty: first, return on investments is uncertain and there is a risk of losing money. Second, customers cannot be certain about their financial advisor's true intentions. This might decrease customers' willingness to cooperate with advisors. However, the uncertainty management model and fairness heuristic theory predict that in uncertain situations customers are willing to cooperate with financial advisors when they perceive fairness. In the current study, we investigated how perceived fairness in the twofold uncertain situations increased people's intended future cooperation with an advisor. We asked customers of financial consultancies about their experienced uncertainty regarding both the investment decision and the advisor's intentions. Moreover, we asked them about their perceived fairness, as well as their intention to cooperate with the advisor in the future. A three-way moderation analysis showed that customers who faced high uncertainty regarding the investment decision and high uncertainty regarding the advisor's true intentions indicated the lowest intended cooperation with the advisor but high fairness increased their cooperation. Interestingly, when people were only uncertain about the advisor's intentions (but certain about the decision) they indicated less cooperation than when they were only uncertain about the decision (but certain about the advisor's intentions). A mediated moderation analysis revealed that this relationship was explained by customers' lower trust in their advisors.

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

PubMed

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

2017-12-01

Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

Are financial incentives cost-effective to support smoking cessation during pregnancy?

PubMed

Boyd, Kathleen A; Briggs, Andrew H; Bauld, Linda; Sinclair, Lesley; Tappin, David

2016-02-01

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of up to £400 worth of financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy as an adjunct to routine health care. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a Phase II randomized controlled trial (RCT) and a cost-utility analysis using a life-time Markov model. The RCT was undertaken in Glasgow, Scotland. The economic analysis was undertaken from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. A total of 612 pregnant women randomized to receive usual cessation support plus or minus financial incentives of up to £400 vouchers (US $609), contingent upon smoking cessation. Comparison of usual support and incentive interventions in terms of cotinine-validated quitters, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and direct costs to the NHS. The incremental cost per quitter at 34-38 weeks pregnant was £1127 ($1716).This is similar to the standard look-up value derived from Stapleton & West's published ICER tables, £1390 per quitter, by looking up the Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CIPT) incremental cost (£157) and incremental 6-month quit outcome (0.14). The life-time model resulted in an incremental cost of £17 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -£93, £107] and a gain of 0.04 QALYs (95% CI = -0.058, 0.145), giving an ICER of £482/QALY ($734/QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates uncertainty in these results, particularly regarding relapse after birth. The expected value of perfect information was £30 million (at a willingness to pay of £30 000/QALY), so given current uncertainty, additional research is potentially worthwhile. Financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy are highly cost-effective, with an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years of £482, which is well below recommended decision thresholds. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

AR(p) -based detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.

2018-07-01

Autoregressive models are commonly used for modeling time-series from nature, economics and finance. This work explored simple autoregressive AR(p) models to remove long-term trends in detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Crude oil prices and bitcoin exchange rate were considered, with the former corresponding to a mature market and the latter to an emergent market. Results showed that AR(p) -based DFA performs similar to traditional DFA. However, the former DFA provides information on stability of long-term trends, which is valuable for understanding and quantifying the dynamics of complex time series from financial systems.

The effects of nurse staffing on hospital financial performance: competitive versus less competitive markets.

PubMed

Everhart, Damian; Neff, Donna; Al-Amin, Mona; Nogle, June; Weech-Maldonado, Robert

2013-01-01

Hospitals facing financial uncertainty have sought to reduce nurse staffing as a way to increase profitability. However, nurse staffing has been found to be important in terms of quality of patient care and nursing-related outcomes. Nurse staffing can provide a competitive advantage to hospitals and as a result of better financial performance, particularly in more competitive markets. In this study, we build on the Resource-Based View of the Firm to determine the effect of nurse staffing on total profit margin in more competitive and less competitive hospital markets in Florida. By combining a Florida statewide nursing survey with the American Hospital Association Annual Survey and the Area Resource File, three separate multivariate linear regression models were conducted to determine the effect of nurse staffing on financial performance while accounting for market competitiveness. The analysis was limited to acute care hospitals. Nurse staffing levels had a positive association with financial performance (β = 3.3, p = .02) in competitive hospital markets, but no significant association was found in less competitive hospital markets. Hospitals in more competitive hospital markets should reconsider reducing nursing staff, as these cost-cutting measures may be inefficient and negatively affect financial performance.

Market-stage analysis enhances strategic planning.

PubMed

McDonald, R B

1998-07-01

Changing market conditions are challenging healthcare organizations to determine how to allocate resources and make operational planning decisions to prepare for future changes. A vital part of meeting these challenges is understanding the impact of market stages, and using that knowledge to build effective business strategies. Financial modeling that includes market-stage information provides insight into market opportunities and presents a clearer picture of the organizational changes that will need to be implemented at each stage. Effective strategic action should take into account critical success factors in market responsiveness, organizational responsiveness, operational effectiveness, and financial strength.

A Model for Institutional Policy Analysis: The Case of Student Financial Aid. AIR Forum 1981 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenske, Robert H.; Parker, John D.

The development of an operational model that would enable a college institutional research unit to improve administrative decision-making by expanding its data base to include new activities not widely recognized throughout the institution is considered. Attention is directed to institutional research as a function within an institution,…

The Structure of Student Satisfaction with College Services: A Latent Class Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adwere-Boamah, Joseph

2011-01-01

Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to identify distinct groups of Community college students based on their self-ratings of satisfaction with student service programs. The programs were counseling, financial aid, health center, student programs and student government. The best fitting model to describe the data was a two Discrete-Factor model…

Multiscale synchrony behaviors of paired financial time series by 3D multi-continuum percolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Wang, J.; Wang, B. T.

2018-02-01

Multiscale synchrony behaviors and nonlinear dynamics of paired financial time series are investigated, in an attempt to study the cross correlation relationships between two stock markets. A random stock price model is developed by a new system called three-dimensional (3D) multi-continuum percolation system, which is utilized to imitate the formation mechanism of price dynamics and explain the nonlinear behaviors found in financial time series. We assume that the price fluctuations are caused by the spread of investment information. The cluster of 3D multi-continuum percolation represents the cluster of investors who share the same investment attitude. In this paper, we focus on the paired return series, the paired volatility series, and the paired intrinsic mode functions which are decomposed by empirical mode decomposition. A new cross recurrence quantification analysis is put forward, combining with multiscale cross-sample entropy, to investigate the multiscale synchrony of these paired series from the proposed model. The corresponding research is also carried out for two China stock markets as comparison.

Automated drug dispensing systems in the intensive care unit: a financial analysis.

PubMed

Chapuis, Claire; Bedouch, Pierrick; Detavernier, Maxime; Durand, Michel; Francony, Gilles; Lavagne, Pierre; Foroni, Luc; Albaladejo, Pierre; Allenet, Benoit; Payen, Jean-Francois

2015-09-09

To evaluate the economic impact of automated-drug dispensing systems (ADS) in surgical intensive care units (ICUs). A financial analysis was conducted in three adult ICUs of one university hospital, where ADS were implemented, one in each unit, to replace the traditional floor stock system. Costs were estimated before and after implementation of the ADS on the basis of floor stock inventories, expired drugs, and time spent by nurses and pharmacy technicians on medication-related work activities. A financial analysis was conducted that included operating cash flows, investment cash flows, global cash flow and net present value. After ADS implementation, nurses spent less time on medication-related activities with an average of 14.7 hours saved per day/33 beds. Pharmacy technicians spent more time on floor-stock activities with an average of 3.5 additional hours per day across the three ICUs. The cost of drug storage was reduced by €44,298 and the cost of expired drugs was reduced by €14,772 per year across the three ICUs. Five years after the initial investment, the global cash flow was €148,229 and the net present value of the project was positive by €510,404. The financial modeling of the ADS implementation in three ICUs showed a high return on investment for the hospital. Medication-related costs and nursing time dedicated to medications are reduced with ADS.

Demonstrating the Financial Benefit of Human Resource Development: Status and Update on the Theory and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Richard A.

1998-01-01

A research review identified findings about the financial analysis method, forecasting of the financial benefits of human resource development (HRD), and recent financial analysis research: (1) HRD embedded in a performance improvement framework yielded high return on investment; and (2) HRD interventions focused on performance variables forecast…

Financial Ratio Analysis Comes to Nonprofits.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chabotar, Kent John

1989-01-01

To evaluate their financial health, a growing number of colleges, universities, and other nonprofit organizations are using financial ratio analysis, a technique used in business. The strengths and weaknesses of ratio analysis are assessed and suggestions are made on how nonprofits can use it most effectively. (Author/MLW)

Developing Viable Financing Models for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilingsfeld, F.; Schaetzler, D.

2002-01-01

Increasing commercialization of space services and the impending release of government's control of space access promise to make space ventures more attractive. Still, many investors shy away from going into the space tourism market as long as they do not feel secure that their return expectations will be met. First and foremost, attracting investors from the capital markets requires qualifying financing models. Based on earlier research on the cost of capital for space tourism, this paper gives a brief run-through of commercial, technical and financial due diligence aspects. After that, a closer look is taken at different valuation techniques as well as alternative ways of streamlining financials. Experience from earlier ventures has shown that the high cost of capital represents a significant challenge. Thus, the sophistication and professionalism of business plans and financial models needs to be very high. Special emphasis is given to the optimization of the debt-to-equity ratio over time. The different roles of equity and debt over a venture's life cycle are explained. Based on the latter, guidelines for the design of an optimized loan structure are given. These are then applied to simulating the financial performance of a typical space tourism venture over time, including the calculation of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Net Present Value (NPV). Based on a concluding sensitivity analysis, the lessons learned are presented. If applied properly, these will help to make space tourism economically viable.

Nonlinear stochastic exclusion financial dynamics modeling and time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

2017-09-01

In attempt to reproduce price dynamics of financial markets, a stochastic agent-based financial price model is proposed and investigated by stochastic exclusion process. The exclusion process, one of interacting particle systems, is usually thought of as modeling particle motion (with the conserved number of particles) in a continuous time Markov process. In this work, the process is utilized to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents, in order to explain some stylized facts found in financial time series dynamics. To better understand the correlation behaviors of the proposed model, a new time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation (TDI-DCC) is introduced and performed, also, the autocorrelation analyses are applied in the empirical research. Furthermore, to verify the rationality of the financial price model, the actual return series are also considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation ones. The comparison results of return behaviors reveal that this financial price dynamics model can reproduce some correlation features of actual stock markets.

Dementia Risk and Financial Decision Making by Older Households: The Impact of Information

PubMed Central

Hsu, Joanne W.; Willis, Robert

2014-01-01

The knowledge and reasoning ability needed to manage one’s finances is a form of human capital. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias cause progressive declines in cognition that lead to a complete loss of functional capacities. In this paper we analyze the impact of information about cognitive decline on the choice of household financial decision-maker. Using longitudinal data on older married couples in a novel application of survival analysis, we find that as the financial decision maker’s cognition declines, the management of finances is eventually turned over to his cognitively intact spouse, often well after difficulties handling money have already emerged. However, a memory disease diagnosis increases the hazard of switching the financial respondent by over 200 percent for couples who control their retirement accounts, like 401(k) accounts, relative to those who passively receive retirement income. This finding is consistent with a model of the value of information: households with the most to gain financially from preparation are most responsive to information about cognitive decline. PMID:25525476

Financial Analysis of Behavioral Health Services in a Pediatric Endocrinology Clinic.

PubMed

Yarbro, Jessica L; Mehlenbeck, Robyn

2016-09-01

This article addresses a current need in psychological practice by describing a financially feasible model that moves toward integrated care of behavioral health services in a pediatric endocrinology clinic. Financial information (costs and revenue associated with behavioral health services) for the clinic, over an 18-month period (July 2012 to December 2013), was obtained through the hospital's financial department. The clinic meets one half day per week. Over the 18-month period, the behavioral health services generated a net gain of $3661.45 in the favor of the clinic. We determined that the psychologist and clinical psychology residents needed to see a total of four patients per half-day clinic for the clinic to "break-even." We describe one financially feasible way of integrating behavioral health services into a pediatric endocrinology clinic in the hope that this will be generalizable to other medical settings. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

2016-11-01

This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

Quantitative Financial Analysis of Alternative Energy Efficiency Shareholder Incentive Mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappers, Peter; Goldman, Charles; Chait, Michele

2008-08-03

Rising energy prices and climate change are central issues in the debate about our nation's energy policy. Many are demanding increased energy efficiency as a way to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower the total cost of electricity and energy services for consumers and businesses. Yet, as the National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (NAPEE) pointed out, many utilities continue to shy away from seriously expanding their energy efficiency program offerings because they claim there is insufficient profit-motivation, or even a financial disincentive, when compared to supply-side investments. With the recent introduction of Duke Energy's Save-a-Watt incentive mechanism andmore » ongoing discussions about decoupling, regulators and policymakers are now faced with an expanded and diverse landscape of financial incentive mechanisms, Determining the 'right' way forward to promote deep and sustainable demand side resource programs is challenging. Due to the renaissance that energy efficiency is currently experiencing, many want to better understand the tradeoffs in stakeholder benefits between these alternative incentive structures before aggressively embarking on a path for which course corrections can be time-consuming and costly. Using a prototypical Southwest utility and a publicly available financial model, we show how various stakeholders (e.g. shareholders, ratepayers, etc.) are affected by these different types of shareholder incentive mechanisms under varying assumptions about program portfolios. This quantitative analysis compares the financial consequences associated with a wide range of alternative incentive structures. The results will help regulators and policymakers better understand the financial implications of DSR program incentive regulation.« less

Financial Literacy of Young Adults: The Importance of Parental Socialization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorgensen, Bryce L.; Savla, Jyoti

2010-01-01

This article tests a conceptual model of perceived parental influence on the financial literacy of young adults. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether (a) parents were perceived to influence young adults' financial knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors and (b) the degree to which young adults' financial attitudes mediated financial…

Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

2010-11-01

The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on computer confirm the feasibility of this approach. Hence, functional differential equations with both retardation and anticipation are found to be useful tools for modelling financial systems.

Communication impacting financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitting Andersen, Jørgen; Vrontos, Ioannis; Dellaportas, Petros; Galam, Serge

2014-10-01

Since the attribution of the Nobel prize in 2002 to Kahneman for prospect theory, behavioral finance has become an increasingly important subfield of finance. However the main parts of behavioral finance, prospect theory included, understand financial markets through individual investment behavior. Behavioral finance thereby ignores any interaction between participants. We introduce a socio-financial model (Vitting Andersen J. and Nowak A., An Introduction to Socio-Finance (Springer, Berlin) 2013) that studies the impact of communication on the pricing in financial markets. Considering the simplest possible case where each market participant has either a positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) sentiment with respect to the market, we model the evolution of the sentiment in the population due to communication in subgroups of different sizes. Nonlinear feedback effects between the market performance and changes in sentiments are taken into account by assuming that the market performance is dependent on changes in sentiments (e.g., a large sudden positive change in bullishness would lead to more buying). The market performance in turn has an impact on the sentiment through the transition probabilities to change an opinion in a group of a given size. The idea is that if for example the market has observed a recent downturn, it will be easier for even a bearish minority to convince a bullish majority to change opinion compared to the case where the meeting takes place in a bullish upturn of the market. Within the framework of our proposed model, financial markets stylized facts such as volatility clustering and extreme events may be perceived as arising due to abrupt sentiment changes via ongoing communication of the market participants. The model introduces a new volatility measure which is apt of capturing volatility clustering and from maximum-likelihood analysis we are able to apply the model to real data and give additional long term insight into where a market is heading.

GASB's New Financial Reporting Model: Implementation Project for School Districts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bean, David; Glick, Paul

1999-01-01

In June 1999, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) issued its statement on the structure of the basic financial reporting model for state and local governments. Explains the new financial reporting model and reviews the implementation issues that school districts will need to address. (MLF)

A Study and Model of Operating Level Financial Management Philosophy Under RMS.

DTIC Science & Technology

The lack of financial management education has prevented base level managers from using PRIME data as intended. This study examines the Air Force...operating level financial management philosophy before and after PRIME and the environment of PRIME adoption. A model in the form of two case problems...with solutions is created to portray the financial management concepts under PRIME to help educate base level Air Force logistic managers. The model

75 FR 34530 - Analysis by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets on the Long-Term Availability and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Analysis by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets on the... insurance for terrorism risk. The President's Working Group on Financial Markets (established by Executive... his designee, is the Chairman of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. As chair of the...

A Self-Instructional Course in Student Financial Aid Administration. Module 8: Need Analysis. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington Consulting Group, Inc., Washington, DC.

The eighth module in a 17-module self-instructional program on student financial aid administration (designed for novice student financial aid administrators and other personnel) focuses on need analysis. It provides an introduction to the management of federal financial aid programs authorized by the Higher Education Act Title IV. After…

Financial Health of the Higher Education Sector: 2015-16 Financial Results. Data Analysis. March 2017/02

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higher Education Funding Council for England, 2016

2016-01-01

This report provides an overview of the financial health of the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) funded higher education sector in England. The analysis covers the financial results for 2015-16. This does not include further education or sixth-form colleges, or alternative providers of higher education.

Scaling and efficiency determine the irreversible evolution of a market

PubMed Central

Baldovin, F.; Stella, A. L.

2007-01-01

In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable basis for simulating such series. Based on constraints imposed by market efficiency and on an inhomogeneous-time generalization of standard simple scaling, we propose an analytical model which accounts simultaneously for empirical results like the linear decorrelation of successive returns, the power law dependence on time of the volatility autocorrelation function, and the multiscaling associated to this dependence. In addition, our approach gives a justification and a quantitative assessment of the irreversible character of the index dynamics. This irreversibility enters as a key ingredient in a novel simulation strategy of index evolution which demonstrates the predictive potential of the model.

Multiscale multifractal DCCA and complexity behaviors of return intervals for Potts price model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Stanley, H. Eugene

2018-02-01

To investigate the characteristics of extreme events in financial markets and the corresponding return intervals among these events, we use a Potts dynamic system to construct a random financial time series model of the attitudes of market traders. We use multiscale multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MM-DCCA) and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) perform numerical research of the return intervals for two significant China's stock market indices and for the proposed model. The new MM-DCCA method is based on the Hurst surface and provides more interpretable cross-correlations of the dynamic mechanism between different return interval series. We scale the LZC method with different exponents to illustrate the complexity of return intervals in different scales. Empirical studies indicate that the proposed return intervals from the Potts system and the real stock market indices hold similar statistical properties.

Nonlinear complexity behaviors of agent-based 3D Potts financial dynamics with random environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yani; Wang, Jun

2018-02-01

A new microscopic 3D Potts interaction financial price model is established in this work, to investigate the nonlinear complexity behaviors of stock markets. 3D Potts model, which extends the 2D Potts model to three-dimensional, is a cubic lattice model to explain the interaction behavior among the agents. In order to explore the complexity of real financial markets and the 3D Potts financial model, a new random coarse-grained Lempel-Ziv complexity is proposed to certain series, such as the price returns, the price volatilities, and the random time d-returns. Then the composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) method is applied to the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the corresponding shuffled data to study the complexity behaviors. The empirical results indicate that the 3D financial model is feasible.

Application of data envelopment analysis in measuring the efficiency of mutual fund

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nik, Marzieh Geramian; Mihanzadeh, Hooman; Izadifar, Mozhgan; Nik, Babak Geramian

2015-05-01

The growth of mutual fund industry during the past decades emphasizes the importance of this investment vehicle particularly in prosperity of financial markets and in turn, financial growth of each country. Therefore, evaluating the relative efficiency of mutual funds as investment tool is of importance. In this study, a combined model of DEA (data envelopment analysis), and goal programming (GoDEA) approaches contributes widely to analyze the return efficiency of Mutual Funds in an attempt to separate efficient and inefficient Funds as well as identifying the inefficiency resources. Mixed asset local funds, which are managed jointly by CIMB and Public Mutual Berhad, have been selected for the purpose of this paper. As a result, Public Small Cap Fund (P Small Cap) is regarded as the most efficient mutual fund during the period of study. The integrated model aims to first guide investors to choose the best performing fund among other mutual funds, secondly provides the realistic and appropriate benchmark in compare to other classic method, and finally confirms the utility of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as decision-making tool.

A Person-Centered Approach to Financial Capacity Assessment: Preliminary Development of a New Rating Scale

PubMed Central

Lichtenberg, Peter A.; Stoltman, Jonathan; Ficker, Lisa J.; Iris, Madelyn; Mast, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Financial exploitation and financial capacity issues often overlap when a gerontologist assesses whether an older adult’s financial decision is an autonomous, capable choice. Our goal is to describe a new conceptual model for assessing financial decisions using principles of person-centered approaches and to introduce a new instrument, the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS). We created a conceptual model, convened meetings of experts from various disciplines to critique the model and provide input on content and structure, and select final items. We then videotaped administration of the LFDRS to five older adults and had 10 experts provide independent ratings. The LFDRS demonstrated good to excellent inter-rater agreement. The LFDRS is a new tool that allows gerontologists to systematically gather information about a specific financial decision and the decisional abilities in question. PMID:25866438

A Person-Centered Approach to Financial Capacity Assessment: Preliminary Development of a New Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Stoltman, Jonathan; Ficker, Lisa J; Iris, Madelyn; Mast, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Financial exploitation and financial capacity issues often overlap when a gerontologist assesses whether an older adult's financial decision is an autonomous, capable choice. Our goal is to describe a new conceptual model for assessing financial decisions using principles of person-centered approaches and to introduce a new instrument, the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS). We created a conceptual model, convened meetings of experts from various disciplines to critique the model and provide input on content and structure, and select final items. We then videotaped administration of the LFDRS to five older adults and had 10 experts provide independent ratings. The LFDRS demonstrated good to excellent inter-rater agreement. The LFDRS is a new tool that allows gerontologists to systematically gather information about a specific financial decision and the decisional abilities in question.

Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Manikandan, Narayanan; Subha, Srinivasan

2016-01-01

Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used.

Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Manikandan, Narayanan; Subha, Srinivasan

2016-01-01

Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used. PMID:26881271

Modeling new coal projects: supercritical or subcritical?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrino, A.J.; Jones, R.B.

Decisions made on new build coal-fired plants are driven by several factors - emissions, fuel logistics and electric transmission access all provide constraints. The crucial economic decision whether to build supercritical or subcritical units often depends on assumptions concerning the reliability/availability of each technology, the cost of on-fuel operations including maintenance, the generation efficiencies and the potential for emissions credits at some future value. Modeling the influence of these key factors requires analysis and documentation to assure the assets actually meet the projected financial performance. This article addresses some of the issue related to the trade-offs that have the potentialmore » to be driven by the supercritical/subcritical decision. Solomon Associates has been collecting cost, generation and reliability data on coal-fired power generation assets for approximately 10 years using a strict methodology and taxonomy to categorize and compare actual plant operations data. This database provides validated information not only on performance, but also on alternative performance scenarios, which can provide useful insights in the pro forma financial analysis and models of new plants. 1 ref., 1 fig., 3 tabs.« less

Financial Concerns About Participation in Clinical Trials Among Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Wong, Yu-Ning; Schluchter, Mark D; Albrecht, Terrance L; Benson, Al Bowen; Buzaglo, Joanne; Collins, Michael; Flamm, Anne Lederman; Fleisher, Linda; Katz, Michael; Kinzy, Tyler G; Liu, Tasnuva M; Manne, Sharon; Margevicius, Seunghee; Miller, Dawn M; Miller, Suzanne M; Poole, David; Raivitch, Stephanie; Roach, Nancy; Ross, Eric; Meropol, Neal J

2016-02-10

The decision to enroll in a clinical trial is complex given the uncertain risks and benefits of new approaches. Many patients also have financial concerns. We sought to characterize the association between financial concerns and the quality of decision making about clinical trials. We conducted a secondary data analysis of a randomized trial of a Web-based educational tool (Preparatory Education About Clinical Trials) designed to improve the preparation of patients with cancer for making decisions about clinical trial enrollment. Patients completed a baseline questionnaire that included three questions related to financial concerns (five-point Likert scales): "How much of a burden on you is the cost of your medical care?," "I'm afraid that my health insurance won't pay for a clinical trial," and "I'm worried that I wouldn't be able to afford the costs of treatment on a clinical trial." Results were summed, with higher scores indicating greater concerns. We used multiple linear regressions to measure the association between concerns and self-reported measures of self-efficacy, preparation for decision making, distress, and decisional conflict in separate models, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. One thousand two hundred eleven patients completed at least one financial concern question. Of these, 27% were 65 years or older, 58% were female, and 24% had a high school education or less. Greater financial concern was associated with lower self-efficacy and preparation for decision making, as well as with greater decisional conflict and distress, even after adjustment for age, race, sex, education, employment, and hospital location (P < .001 for all models). Financial concerns are associated with several psychological constructs that may negatively influence decision quality regarding clinical trials. Greater attention to patients' financial needs and concerns may reduce distress and improve patient decision making. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Energy Retrofit--Step One.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canipe, Stephen L.; And Others

1983-01-01

A School Retrofit Design Analysis System (SRDAS) provides energy modeling analyses of school buildings. SRDAS has three subprograms that consider first, roof, windows, walls, floors, and infiltration sites; second, costs per student, compliance with national energy consumption norms, and electricity costs projections; and third, financial savings…

75 FR 42749 - Fidelity National Financial, Inc.; Analysis of the Agreement Containing Consent Order to Aid...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-22

... FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION [File No. 091 0032] Fidelity National Financial, Inc.; Analysis of the... prohibiting unfair or deceptive acts or practices or unfair methods of competition. The attached Analysis to... comments electronically or in paper form. Comments should refer to ``Fidelity National Financial, File No...

Strategic financial analysis: the CFO's role in strategic planning.

PubMed

Litos, D M

1985-03-01

Strategic financial analysis, the financial information support system for the strategic planning process, provides information vital to maintaining a healthy bottom line. This article, the third in HCSM's series on the organizational components of strategic planning, reviews the role of the chief financial officer in determining which programs and services will best meet the future needs of the institution.

A Financial Ratio Analysis of For-Profit and Non-Profit Rural Referral Centers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCue, Michael J.; Nayar, Preethy

2009-01-01

Context: National financial data show that rural referral center (RRC) hospitals have performed well financially. RRC hospitals' median cash flow margin ratio was 10.04% in 2002 and grew to 11.04% in 2004. Purpose: The aim of this study is to compare the ratio analysis of key operational and financial performance measures of for-profit RRCs to…

An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

2007-06-01

An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

The Development of a Course in Financial Statement Analysis for the Dowling College M.B.A. Program. Curriculum and Program Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, James F.

In the development of a course in financial statement analysis, the following procedures were implemented: analysis of new accounting pronouncements, new textbooks, and articles on the topic of financial statement analysis; establishment of goals and objectives for the course; and selection of text and content of the course. The course was…

Financial physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigenbaum, James

2003-10-01

In this introduction to the burgeoning field of econophysics, we review the application of self-organized criticality to economics, the Cont-Bouchaud percolation model, multiple-strategy agent-based models of financial markets, the minority game, and log-periodic precursors to financial crashes.

Measuring financial performance: an overview of financial statements.

PubMed

Dalsted, N L

1995-07-01

Financial management has emerged as a critical component in the long-term viability of today's ranches and farms. Proper and timely financial reporting and analysis of financial statements are valuable tools that agricultural producers can use to monitor, coordinate, and plan their operational production and marketing schemes and strategies. A side note to preparation of financial statements. With the concerns over lender liability issues associated with statements either assisted with or prepared by a lending officer, agricultural producers will be responsible for preparing their own statements. The lending institutions may prepare their own statements in their assessment of the financial condition of a business and or individual, but, ultimately, the responsibility of financial statements is the borrower's. Some of the material presented in this article provides important input for use in such analytical programs as the National Cattlemen's Association, Integrated Resource Committees, and Standard Performance Analysis (SPA). SPA techniques and associated software have been or currently are under development for cow-calf, stocker, seedstock, and sheep enterprises. Critical to the analysis is having complete and correct financial statements. These analytical programs build on the financial statements. These analytical programs build on the financial statements as recommended by the FFSTF. Proper financial reporting is critical not only to a SPA assessment but also to the overall financial management of today's farms and ranches. Recognizing the importance of financial management in production agriculture is not enough, taking a proactive stance in one's financial plan is paramount to success. Failure to do so will only enhance the exit rates of producers from production agriculture.

12 CFR 219.3 - Cost reimbursement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... preparing financial records for shipment. Search and processing costs shall not cover analysis of material... PROVIDING FINANCIAL RECORDS; RECORDKEEPING REQUIREMENTS FOR CERTAIN FINANCIAL RECORDS (REGULATION S) Reimbursement to Financial Institutions for Providing Financial Records § 219.3 Cost reimbursement. (a) Fees...

Identification of factors affecting birth rate in Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zámková, Martina; Blašková, Veronika

2013-10-01

This article is concerned with identifying economic factors primarily that affect birth rates in Czech Republic. To find the relationship between the magnitudes, we used the multivariate regression analysis and for modeling, we used a time series of annual values (1994-2011) both economic indicators and indicators related to demographics. Due to potential problems with apparent dependence we first cleansed all series obtained from the Czech Statistical Office using first differences. It is clear from the final model that meets all assumptions that there is a positive correlation between birth rates and the financial situation of households. We described the financial situation of households by GDP per capita, gross wages and consumer price index. As expected a positive correlation was proved for GDP per capita and gross wages and negative dependence was proved for the consumer price index. In addition to these economic variables in the model there were used also demographic characteristics of the workforce and the number of employed people. It can be stated that if the Czech Republic wants to support an increase in the birth rate, it is necessary to consider the financial support for households with small children.

Gender-specific risk factors for virologic failure in KwaZulu-Natal: Automobile ownership and financial insecurity

PubMed Central

HARE, Anna Q.; ORDÓÑEZ, Claudia E.; JOHNSON, Brent A.; RIO, Carlos DEL; KEARNS, Rachel A.; WU, Baohua; HAMPTON, Jane; WU, Peng; SUNPATH, Henry; MARCONI, Vincent C.

2014-01-01

We sought to examine which socioeconomic indicators are risk factors for virologic failure among HIV-1 infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A case-control study of virologic failure was conducted among patients recruited from the outpatient clinic at McCord Hospital in Durban, South Africa between October 1, 2010 and June 30, 2012. Cases were those failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), defined as viral load > 1000 copies/mL. Univariate logistic regression was performed on sociodemographic data for the outcome of virologic failure. Variables found significant (p<.05) were used in multivariate models and all models were stratified by gender. Of 158 cases and 300 controls, 35% were male and median age was 40 years. Gender stratification of models revealed automobile ownership was a risk factor among males, while variables of financial insecurity (unemployment, non-spouse family paying for care, staying with family) were risk factors for women. In this cohort, financial insecurity among women and automobile ownership among men were risk factors for virologic failure. Risk factor differences between genders demonstrate limitations of generalized risk factor analysis. PMID:25037488

Gender-specific risk factors for virologic failure in KwaZulu-Natal: automobile ownership and financial insecurity.

PubMed

Hare, Anna Q; Ordóñez, Claudia E; Johnson, Brent A; Del Rio, Carlos; Kearns, Rachel A; Wu, Baohua; Hampton, Jane; Wu, Peng; Sunpath, Henry; Marconi, Vincent C

2014-11-01

We sought to examine which socioeconomic indicators are risk factors for virologic failure among HIV-1 infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A case-control study of virologic failure was conducted among patients recruited from the outpatient clinic at McCord Hospital in Durban, South Africa between October 1, 2010 and June 30, 2012. Cases were those failing first-line ART, defined as viral load >1,000 copies/mL. Univariate logistic regression was performed on sociodemographic data for the outcome of virologic failure. Variables found significant (p < 0.05) were used in multivariate models and all models were stratified by gender. Of 158 cases and 300 controls, 35 % were male and median age was 40 years. Gender stratification of models revealed automobile ownership was a risk factor among males, while variables of financial insecurity (unemployment, non-spouse family paying for care, staying with family) were risk factors for women. In this cohort, financial insecurity among women and automobile ownership among men were risk factors for virologic failure. Risk factor differences between genders demonstrate limitations of generalized risk factor analysis.

Non-arbitrage in financial markets: A Bayesian approach for verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerezetti, F. V.; Stern, Julio Michael

2012-10-01

The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - Full Bayesian Significance Test, if there is a relevant price difference between essentially the same financial asset traded at two distinct locations. Specifically, we investigate and compare the behavior of call options on the BOVESPA Index traded at (a) the Equities Segment and (b) the Derivatives Segment of BM&FBovespa. Our results seem to point out significant statistical differences. To what extent this evidence is actually the expression of perennial arbitrage opportunities is still an open question.

Enterprise imaging: planning and business justification.

PubMed

Avrin, David; Hou, Stephanie W

2012-02-01

To evaluate financial performance, academic radiology departments most often measure examination volume and general technical and professional expenses. Although these metrics are not standardized, their frequency of use reflects that productivity and financial health are high priorities for academic radiology departments across the United States. In this article, we discuss both of these topics, in the context of projects to expand services, particularly those with an information technology (IT) component. First, we discuss several informatics innovations that increase productivity or expand service. Second, we explain core financial analysis concepts applicable to radiology departments. Third, we discuss the unique challenge of evaluating a potential IT project for an academic radiology department, when intangible benefits are difficult to quantify. Financial models are only one of several components used for guidance in strategic decisions, but are crucial to building a business case that justifies the initial or capital investment as well as startup and ongoing operational expenses. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial Statement Analysis for Colleges and Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woelfel, Charles J.

1987-01-01

Presents ratio analysis of financial statements as a tool applicable for use by nonprofit institutions for evaluation of financial and operational performance of an institution. It can be used as a screening, forecasting, diagnostic, and evaluative tool for administration and governance. (MD)

Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga Al.

2007-01-01

We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

Correlation of causal factors that influence construction safety performance: A model.

PubMed

Rodrigues, F; Coutinho, A; Cardoso, C

2015-01-01

The construction sector has presented positive development regarding the decrease in occupational accident rates in recent years. Regardless, the construction sector stands out systematically from other industries due to its high number of fatalities. The aim of this paper is to deeply understand the causality of construction accidents from the early design phase through a model. This study reviewed several research papers presenting various analytical models that correlate the contributing factors to occupational accidents in this sector. This study also analysed different construction projects and conducted a survey of design and site supervision teams. This paper proposes a model developed from the analysis of existing ones, which correlates the causal factors through all the construction phases. It was concluded that effective risk prevention can only be achieved by a global correlation of causal factors including not only production ones but also client requirements, financial climate, design team competence, project and risk management, financial capacity, health and safety policy and early planning. Accordingly, a model is proposed.

Financial errors in dementia: Testing a neuroeconomic conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Chiong, Winston; Hsu, Ming; Wudka, Danny; Miller, Bruce L.; Rosen, Howard J.

2013-01-01

Financial errors by patients with dementia can have devastating personal and family consequences. We developed and evaluated a neuroeconomic conceptual framework for understanding financial errors across different dementia syndromes, using a systematic, retrospective, blinded chart review of demographically-balanced cohorts of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD, n=100) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD, n=50). Reviewers recorded specific reports of financial errors according to a conceptual framework identifying patient cognitive and affective characteristics, and contextual influences, conferring susceptibility to each error. Specific financial errors were reported for 49% of AD and 70% of bvFTD patients (p = 0.012). AD patients were more likely than bvFTD patients to make amnestic errors (p< 0.001), while bvFTD patients were more likely to spend excessively (p = 0.004) and to exhibit other behaviors consistent with diminished sensitivity to losses and other negative outcomes (p< 0.001). Exploratory factor analysis identified a social/affective vulnerability factor associated with errors in bvFTD, and a cognitive vulnerability factor associated with errors in AD. Our findings highlight the frequency and functional importance of financial errors as symptoms of AD and bvFTD. A conceptual model derived from neuroeconomic literature identifies factors that influence vulnerability to different types of financial error in different dementia syndromes, with implications for early diagnosis and subsequent risk prevention. PMID:23550884

17 CFR 229.303 - (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations. 229.303 Section 229.303 Commodity... 1975-REGULATION S-K Financial Information § 229.303 (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of...

Automotive Manufacturer Risk Analysis : Meeting the Automotive Fuel Economy Standards

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-08-01

An overview of the methodology and some findings are presented of a study which assessed the impact of the automotive fuel economy standards (AFES) on the four major U.S. automakers. A risk model was used to estimate the financial performance of the ...

A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach to Prioritize Renewable Energy Technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to growing financial and environmental concerns, governmental rules, regulations and incentives alternative energy sources will soon grow at a much faster pace than conventional sources of energy. However, the current body of research providing comparative decision making models that either rank...

How to improve the equity of health financial sources? - Simulation and analysis of total health expenditure of one Chinese province on system dynamics.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Sun, Yuanling; Mu, Xin; Guan, Li; Li, Jingjie

2015-08-27

We simulate and analyze Total Health Expenditure (THE) in financial sources and other economic indicators (such as THE per capita, GDP, etc.) in a province of China from 2002 to 2012 on System Dynamics. Based on actual data and certain mathematical methods, we use system dynamic software to construct a logic model for THE and changing proportions, and thus simulate the actual conditions of development and changes in THE. According to the simulation results, the government possess the largest investment in the average annual growth rate of THE, which was 25.16% in 2012. Social investment comprises the majority of the possession ratio, which was up to 41.20%. The personal investment growth rate decreased by almost 21%, but the total amount of personal investment increased by 28075 million yuan, which is far higher than the increase in government investment. Individuals are still the main carriers of health care expenses. The equity of health financial sources is still poor. The System Dynamics method used in this paper identifies a dynamic measurement process, provides a scientific basis for simulation and analysis of the changes in THE and its key constraining factors, as well as put forward suggestions for the improvement of equity of health financial sources.

Assessing the Liquidity of Firms: Robust Neural Network Regression as an Alternative to the Current Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Andrés, Javier; Landajo, Manuel; Lorca, Pedro; Labra, Jose; Ordóñez, Patricia

Artificial neural networks have proven to be useful tools for solving financial analysis problems such as financial distress prediction and audit risk assessment. In this paper we focus on the performance of robust (least absolute deviation-based) neural networks on measuring liquidity of firms. The problem of learning the bivariate relationship between the components (namely, current liabilities and current assets) of the so-called current ratio is analyzed, and the predictive performance of several modelling paradigms (namely, linear and log-linear regressions, classical ratios and neural networks) is compared. An empirical analysis is conducted on a representative data base from the Spanish economy. Results indicate that classical ratio models are largely inadequate as a realistic description of the studied relationship, especially when used for predictive purposes. In a number of cases, especially when the analyzed firms are microenterprises, the linear specification is improved by considering the flexible non-linear structures provided by neural networks.

Application of the Financial Industry Business Ontology (FIBO) for development of a financial organization ontology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, G. G.; Tuzovsky, A. F.; Aksenova, N. V.

2017-01-01

The article considers an approach to a formalized description and meaning harmonization for financial terms and means of semantic modeling. Ontologies for the semantic models are described with the help of special languages developed for the Semantic Web. Results of FIBO application to solution of different tasks in the Russian financial sector are given.

Investigating the Financial Performance of Universities of Medical Science and Health Services in Iran, Using Data Envelopment Analysis.

PubMed

Nasiripour, Amir Ashkan; Toloie-Ashlaghy, Abbas; Ta-Bibi, Seyed Jamaleddin; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem

2014-01-01

Universities of Medical Science and Health Services (UMSHSs) are among the main organizations in Iran's health-care section. Improving their efficiency in financial resource management through creating an appropri-ate coordination between consumption and resources is strategically vital. Investigating the financial performance as well as ranking the Iranian UMSHSs is the research objective. The study is of descriptive and applied type. The study population includes the UMSHSs of Iran (n=42) among which 24 UMSHSs are selected. DEA is used with the aim to model and assess the financial performance in-cluding 4 inputs and 3 outputs. Also, linear regression is applied to determine the effectiveness of the applied indices as well as the level of the financial performance. Data are obtained from the Budgeting Center in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, during 2010 mainly through forms designed based on the available balance sheets. The average score of financial performance assessment for UMSHSs based on the DEA of input-oriented data is 0.74, assuming a constant scale of DEA-CRS. Thus, approximately 25% of the studied UMSHSs have maxi-mum relative performance and totally, there is about a 30% capacity to increase the financial performance in these UMSHSs. Most Iranian UMSHSs do not have high financial performance. This can be due to problems in financial resource management especially in asset combining. Therefore, compilation and execution of a comprehensive pro-gram for organizational change and agility with the aim to create a kind of optimized combination of resources and assets is strongly recommended.

Declining Financial Capacity in Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Six-Year Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Martin, Roy C; Gerstenecker, Adam; Triebel, Kristen L; Falola, Michael; McPherson, Tarrant; Cutter, Gary; Marson, Daniel C

2018-03-31

To investigate financial skill decline over a 6-year period in persons with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) presumed due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Study participants were cognitively normal (CN) older adults (n = 82) and adults with MCI (n = 91) based on consensus conference diagnosis. Participants completed baseline and up to six annual follow-up assessments that included standardized financial skills measurement (Financial Capacity Instrument; FCI; nine FCI domain and two global scores). We examined FCI change over time using mixed-model repeated measures analysis adjusted for baseline age and follow-up duration. At baseline, the CN group performed better than the MCI group across both global and seven domain scores. Group × Time interaction effects (all p's <.02) were found for all global and domain scores. The largest interaction effects were observed for complex domains of Financial Conceptual Knowledge, Checkbook Management, Bank Statement Management, and Bill Payment (all p's <.0001). Annualized decline in the MCI group's global scores, calculated in relation to CN group performance, was 10-17% over the initial 3-year time span and 22-24% at 6 years. Decline in FCI domain scores ranged from 6% (Knowledge of Assets/Estate) to 22% (Investment Decision-Making) at 3 year follow-up, and from 15% (Basic Monetary Skills) to 37% (Financial Judgment) at 6 year follow-up. Over a 6-year period, persons with MCI demonstrated significant declines in multiple financial skills and in particular financial judgment. The findings highlight the importance of ongoing oversight by family members and clinicians of financial skills and activities in persons with MCI.

Motivation and retention of health workers in Ghana's district hospitals: addressing the critical issues.

PubMed

Adzei, Francis A; Atinga, Roger A

2012-01-01

This study seeks to undertake a systematic review to consolidate existing empirical evidence on the impact of financial and non-financial incentives on motivation and retention of health workers in Ghana's district hospitals. The study employed a purely quantitative design with a sample of 285 health workers from ten district hospitals in four regions of Ghana. A stepwise regression model was used in the analysis. The study found that financial incentives significantly influence motivation and intention to remain in the district hospital. Further, of the four factor model of the non-financial incentives, only three (leadership skill and supervision, opportunities for continuing professional development and availability of infrastructure and resources) were predictors of motivation and retention. A major limitation of the study is that the sample of health workers was biased towards nurses (n = 160; 56.1 percent). This is explained by their large presence in remote districts in Ghana. A qualitative approach could enrich the findings by bringing out the many complex views of health workers regarding issues of motivation and retention, since quantitative studies are better applied to establish causal relationships. The findings suggest that appropriate legislations backing salary supplements, commitment-based bonus payments with a set of internal regulations and leadership with sound managerial qualities are required to pursue workforce retention in district hospitals.

Financial Health of the Higher Education Sector: 2015-16 to 2018-19 Forecasts. Data Analysis. November 2016/34

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higher Education Funding Council for England, 2016

2016-01-01

This report provides an overview of the forecast financial health of the HEFCE-funded higher education (HE) sector in England. The analysis covers the financial forecasts for the period 2015-16 to 2018-19, based on information submitted by higher education institutions (HEIs) to HEFCE in July 2016. Financial Reporting Standard (FRS) 102 is the new…

A balanced perspective: using nonfinancial measures to assess financial performance.

PubMed

Watkins, Ann L

2003-11-01

Assessments of hospitals' financial performance have traditionally been based exclusively on analysis of a concise set of key financial ratios. One study, however, demonstrates that analysis of a hospital's financial condition can be significantly enhanced with the addition of several nonfinancial measures, including case-mix adjusted admissions, case-mix adjusted admissions per full-time equivalent, and case-mix adjusted admissions per beds in service.

Non-disruptive tactics of suppression are superior in countering terrorism, insurgency, and financial panics.

PubMed

Siegel, David A

2011-04-13

Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual's action depends on a subset of others' actions, given by each individual's network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior. Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question. Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them.

A business model analysis of telecardiology service.

PubMed

Lin, Shu-Hsia; Liu, Jorn-Hon; Wei, Jen; Yin, Wei-Hsian; Chen, Hung-Hsin; Chiu, Wen-Ta

2010-12-01

Telecare has become an increasingly common medical service in recent years. However, new service must be close to the market and be market-driven to have a high likelihood of success. This article analyzes the business model of a telecardiology service managed by a general hospital. The methodology of the article is as follows: (1) initially it describes the elements of the service based on the ontology of the business model, (2) then it transfers these elements into the choices for business model dynamic loops and examines their validity, and (3) finally provides an empirical financial analysis of the service to assess the profit-making possibilities.

Associations of financial stressors and physical intimate partner violence perpetration.

PubMed

Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Parker, Edith

2016-12-01

Contextual factors, such as exposure to stressors, may be antecedents to IPV perpetration. These contextual factors may be amenable to modification through intervention and prevention. However, few studies have examined specific contextual factors. To begin to address this gap, we examined the associations between financial stressors and three types of physical IPV perpetration. This analysis used data from Wave IV of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We used logistic regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and each type of IPV (minor, severe, causing injury), and multinomial logit regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and patterns of co-occurring types of IPV perpetration (only minor; only severe; minor and severe; minor, severe, and causing injury; compared with no perpetration). Fewer men perpetrated threats/minor physical IPV (6.7 %) or severe physical IPV (3.4 %) compared with women (11.4 % and 8.8 %, respectively). However, among physical IPV perpetrators, a higher percentage of men (32.0 %) than women (21.0 %) reported their partner was injured as a result of the IPV. In logistic regression models of each type of IPV perpetration, both the number of stressors experienced and several types of financial stressors were associated with perpetrating each type of IPV. Utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and no phone service were associated with increased odds of perpetrating each form of IPV in adjusted analysis. Eviction was associated with perpetrating severe physical IPV but not threats/minor IPV or IPV causing injury. In multinomial logit regression comparing patterns of IPV perpetration to perpetrating no physical IPV, the relationships of financial stressors were less consistent. Food insecurity was associated with perpetrating only minor physical IPV. Comparatively, overall number of financial stressors and four types of financial stressors (utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and disconnected phone service) were associated with perpetrating all three forms of physical IPV. Combined with prior research, our results suggested interventions to improve financial well-being may be a novel way to reduce physical IPV perpetration.

Associations of financial stressors and physical intimate partner violence perpetration.

PubMed

Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Parker, Edith

Contextual factors, such as exposure to stressors, may be antecedents to IPV perpetration. These contextual factors may be amenable to modification through intervention and prevention. However, few studies have examined specific contextual factors. To begin to address this gap, we examined the associations between financial stressors and three types of physical IPV perpetration. This analysis used data from Wave IV of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We used logistic regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and each type of IPV (minor, severe, causing injury), and multinomial logit regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and patterns of co-occurring types of IPV perpetration ( only minor; only severe; minor and severe; minor, severe, and causing injury; compared with no perpetration). Fewer men perpetrated threats/minor physical IPV (6.7 %) or severe physical IPV (3.4 %) compared with women (11.4 % and 8.8 %, respectively). However, among physical IPV perpetrators, a higher percentage of men (32.0 %) than women (21.0 %) reported their partner was injured as a result of the IPV. In logistic regression models of each type of IPV perpetration, both the number of stressors experienced and several types of financial stressors were associated with perpetrating each type of IPV. Utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and no phone service were associated with increased odds of perpetrating each form of IPV in adjusted analysis. Eviction was associated with perpetrating severe physical IPV but not threats/minor IPV or IPV causing injury. In multinomial logit regression comparing patterns of IPV perpetration to perpetrating no physical IPV, the relationships of financial stressors were less consistent. Food insecurity was associated with perpetrating only minor physical IPV. Comparatively, overall number of financial stressors and four types of financial stressors (utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and disconnected phone service) were associated with perpetrating all three forms of physical IPV. Combined with prior research, our results suggested interventions to improve financial well-being may be a novel way to reduce physical IPV perpetration.

Using Ratio Analysis to Evaluate Financial Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minter, John; And Others

1982-01-01

The ways in which ratio analysis can help in long-range planning, budgeting, and asset management to strengthen financial performance and help avoid financial difficulties are explained. Types of ratios considered include balance sheet ratios, net operating ratios, and contribution and demand ratios. (MSE)

Topics in Finance: Part II--Financial Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laux, Judy

2010-01-01

The second article in a series designed to supplement the introductory financial management course, this essay addresses financial statement analysis, including its impact on stock valuation, disclosure, and managerial behavior. [For "Topics in Finance Part I--Introduction and Stockholder Wealth Maximization," see EJ1060345.

Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Denz, Cornelia

2013-09-01

We employ the log-periodic power law (LPPL) to analyze the late-2000 financial crisis from the perspective of critical phenomena. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether LPPL structures in the development of credit default swap (CDS) spreads can be used for default classification. Based on the different triggers of Bear Stearns’ near bankruptcy during the late-2000 financial crisis and Ford’s insolvency in 2009, this study provides a quantitative description of the mechanism behind bank runs. We apply the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) positive feedback model to explain the rise of financial institutions’ CDS spreads during the global financial crisis 2007-2009. This investigation is based on CDS spreads of 40 major banks over the period from June 2007 to April 2009 which includes a significant CDS spread increase. The qualitative data analysis indicates that the CDS spread variations have followed LPPL patterns during the global financial crisis. Furthermore, the univariate classification performances of seven LPPL parameters as default indicators are measured by Mann-Whitney U tests. The present study supports the hypothesis that discrete scale-invariance governs the dynamics of financial markets and suggests the application of new and fast updateable default indicators to capture the buildup of long-range correlations between creditors.

The Effects of Nurse Staffing on Hospital Financial Performance: Competitive Versus Less Competitive Markets

PubMed Central

Everhart, Damian; Neff, Donna; Al-Amin, Mona; Nogle, June; Weech-Maldonado, Robert

2013-01-01

Background Hospitals facing financial uncertainty have sought to reduce nurse staffing as a way to increase profitability. However, nurse staffing has been found to be important in terms of quality of patient care and nursing related outcomes. Nurse staffing can provide a competitive advantage to hospitals and as a result better financial performance, particularly in more competitive markets Purpose In this study we build on the Resource-Based View of the Firm to determine the effect of nurse staffing on total profit margin in more competitive and less competitive hospital markets in Florida. Methodology/Approach By combining a Florida statewide nursing survey with the American Hospital Association Annual Survey and the Area Resource File, three separate multivariate linear regression models were conducted to determine the effect of nurse staffing on financial performance while accounting for market competitiveness. The analysis was limited to acute care hospitals. Findings Nurse staffing levels had a positive association with financial performance (β=3.3; p=0.02) in competitive hospital markets, but no significant association was found in less competitive hospital markets. Practice Implications Hospitals in more competitive hospital markets should reconsider reducing nursing staff, as these cost cutting measures may be inefficient and negatively affect financial performance. PMID:22543824

Financial hardship, mastery and social support: Explaining poor mental health amongst the inadequately employed using data from the HILDA survey.

PubMed

Crowe, Laura; Butterworth, Peter; Leach, Liana

2016-12-01

This study analysed data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examine the relationship between employment status and mental health, and the mediating effects of financial hardship, mastery and social support. In addition, the study sought to explore the effects of duration of unemployment on mental health. The primary analysis used three waves of data from the HILDA Survey with 4965 young adult respondents. Longitudinal population-averaged logistic regression models assessed the association of employment status and mental health, including the contribution of mastery, financial hardship and social support in explaining this association between employment groups (unemployed vs. employed; under employed vs. employed). Sensitivity analyses utilised a fixed-effects approach and also considered the full-range of working-age respondents. Regression analysis was used to explore the effect of duration of unemployment on mental health. Respondents' who identified as unemployed or underemployed were at higher risk of poor mental health outcomes when compared to their employed counterparts. This association was ameliorated when accounting for mastery, financial hardship and social support for the unemployed, and was fully mediated for the underemployed. The fixed-effects models showed the transition to unemployment was associated with a decline in mental health and that mastery in particular contributed to that change. The same results were found with a broader age range of respondents. Finally, the relationship between duration of unemployment and mental health was not linear, with mental health showing marked decline across the first 9 weeks of unemployment. Mastery, social support and financial hardship are important factors in understanding the association of poor mental health with both unemployment and underemployment. Furthermore, the results suggest that the most deleterious effects on mental health may occur in the first two months of unemployment before plateauing. In order to prevent deterioration in mental health, these findings suggest intervention should commence immediately following job loss.

Contextual Influences on Financial Behavior: A Proposed Model for Adult Financial Literacy Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Way, Wendy L.

2014-01-01

This chapter presents an ecological model that highlights the importance of considering multiple contextual influences on behavior as well as other factors that may impact learning when designing research and practice aimed at enhancing financial capability.

Job Analysis of the Professional Requirements of the Certified Financial Planner.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skurnik, Larry

A study examined the job functions of certified financial planners, the areas of knowledge needed by new financial planners, the links between these knowledge areas and the job functions of financial planners, and the validity of the examinations currently used by the College of Financial Planning to certify financial planners. A multimethod…

Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

2017-05-01

In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Penev, M.; Melaina, M.

The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

Patient perceptions of asthma-related financial burden: public vs. private health insurance in the United States.

PubMed

Patel, Minal R; Caldwell, Cleopatra H; Song, Peter X K; Wheeler, John R C

2014-10-01

Given the complexity of the health insurance market in the United States and the confusion that often stems from these complexities, patient perception about the value of health insurance in managing chronic disease is important to understand. To examine differences between public and private health insurance in perceptions of financial burden with managing asthma, outcomes, and factors that explain these perceptions. Secondary analysis was performed using baseline data from a randomized clinical trial that were collected through telephone interviews with 219 African American women seeking services for asthma and reporting perceptions of financial burden with asthma management. Path analysis with multigroup models and multiple variable regression analyses were used to examine associations. For public (P < .001) and private (P < .01) coverage, being married and more educated were indirectly associated with greater perceptions of financial burden through different explanatory pathways. When adjusted for multiple morbidities, asthma control, income, and out-of-pocket expenses, those with private insurance used fewer inpatient (P < .05) and emergency department (P < .001) services compared with those with public insurance. When also adjusted for health insurance, greater financial burden was associated with more urgent office visits (P < .001) and lower quality of life (P < .001). African American women who perceive asthma as a financial burden regardless of health insurance report more urgent health care visits and lower quality of life. Burden may be present despite having and being able to generate economic resources and health insurance. Further policy efforts are indicated and special attention should focus on type of coverage. Copyright © 2014 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial Structure and Economic Welfare: Applied General Equilibrium Development Economics.

PubMed

Townsend, Robert

2010-09-01

This review provides a common framework for researchers thinking about the next generation of micro-founded macro models of growth, inequality, and financial deepening, as well as direction for policy makers targeting microfinance programs to alleviate poverty. Topics include treatment of financial structure general equilibrium models: testing for as-if-complete markets or other financial underpinnings; examining dual-sector models with both a perfectly intermediated sector and a sector in financial autarky, as well as a second generation of these models that embeds information problems and other obstacles to trade; designing surveys to capture measures of income, investment/savings, and flow of funds; and aggregating individuals and households to the level of network, village, or national economy. The review concludes with new directions that overcome conceptual and computational limitations.

Financial Structure and Economic Welfare: Applied General Equilibrium Development Economics

PubMed Central

Townsend, Robert

2010-01-01

This review provides a common framework for researchers thinking about the next generation of micro-founded macro models of growth, inequality, and financial deepening, as well as direction for policy makers targeting microfinance programs to alleviate poverty. Topics include treatment of financial structure general equilibrium models: testing for as-if-complete markets or other financial underpinnings; examining dual-sector models with both a perfectly intermediated sector and a sector in financial autarky, as well as a second generation of these models that embeds information problems and other obstacles to trade; designing surveys to capture measures of income, investment/savings, and flow of funds; and aggregating individuals and households to the level of network, village, or national economy. The review concludes with new directions that overcome conceptual and computational limitations. PMID:21037939

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

PubMed

Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-03-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system

PubMed Central

Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-01-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion. PMID:29657804

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curreri, Peter A.; Detweiler, Michael K.

2011-01-01

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Medical students on long-term regional and rural placements: what is the financial cost to supervisors?

PubMed

Hudson, Judith N; Weston, Kathryn M; Farmer, Elizabeth A

2012-01-01

Medical student education is perceived as utilising significant amounts of preceptors' time, negatively impacting on clinical productivity. Most studies have examined short-term student rotations in urban settings, limiting their generalisability to other settings and educational models. To test Worley and Kitto's hypothetical model which proposed a 'turning point' when students become financially beneficial, this study triangulated practice financial data with the perspectives of clinical supervisors before and after regional/rural longitudinal integrated community-based placements. Gross practice financial data were compared before and during the year-long placement. Interview data pre- and post-placement were analysed by two researchers who concurred on emergent themes and categories. This study suggested a financial 'turning point' of 1-2 months when the student became beneficial to the practice. Most preceptors (66%) perceived the longitudinal placement as financially neutral or favourable. Nineteen per cent of supervisors reported a negative financial impact, some attributing this to reduced patient throughput, inadequacy of the government teaching subsidy and/or time spent on assessment preparation. Other supervisors were unconcerned about costs, perceiving that minor financial loss was outweighed by personal satisfaction. CONCLUISONS: Senior students learning in long-term clerkships are legitimate members of regional/rural communities of practice. These students can be cost-neutral or have a small positive financial impact on the practice within a few months. Further financial impact research should include consideration of different models of supervisor teaching subsidies. The ultimate financial benefit of a model may lie in the recruitment and retention of much-needed regional and rural practitioners.

How To Assess and Enhance Financial Health.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudack, Lawrence R.; Orsini, Larry L.; Snow, Brenda M.

2003-01-01

Describes how Saint Bonaventure University is using a ratio analysis based on a composite financial index to transform itself from an institution with adequate financial resources into a financially vibrant institution. (EV)

Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

PubMed

Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

1996-01-01

This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

Francisco Flores-Espino | NREL

Science.gov Websites

regulation Project-level financial analysis and modeling Research Interests Economic impacts of renewable , and D. Loomis. 2015. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four . Keyser, and S. Tegen. 2014. "Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico

Financial management: a necessary tool for generating cash.

PubMed

Humphrey, E; Cilwik, C J

1994-01-01

This article is an introduction to four types of financial analysis and a foundation for additional exposure to financial analysis. If you don't like working with numbers, consider hiring an accountant or a qualified industry consultant to help you analyze your business. Eventually, you will learn what financial clues to look for when analyzing your business and how to reach your objectives and generate cash to reinvest in your business.

Understanding the health care business model: the financial analysts' point of view.

PubMed

Bukh, Per Nikolaj; Nielsen, Christian

2010-01-01

This study focuses on how financial analysts understand the strategy of a health care company and which elements, from such a strategy perspective, they perceive as constituting the cornerstone of a health care company's business model. The empirical part of this study is based on semi-structured interviews with analysts following a large health care company listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. The authors analyse how the financial analysts view strategy and value creation within the framework of a business model. Further, the authors analyze whether the characteristics emerging from a comprehensive literature review are reflected in the financial analysts' perceptions of which information is decision-relevant and important to communicate to the financial markets. Among the conclusions of the study is the importance of distinguishing between the health care companies' business model and the model by which the payment of revenues are allocated between end users and reimbursing organizations.

Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

PubMed

Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

2016-02-01

Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Using a Financial Health Model to Provide Context for Financial Literacy Education Research: A Commentary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huston, Sandra J.

2015-01-01

In the article, "Enhancing links between research and practice to improve consumer financial education and well-being" Billy J. Hensley, Director of Education at National Endowment for Financial Education® (NEFE®), outlines his perspective on the current relation between financial education and financial outcome (downstream financial…

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data...collection of practical techniques to address these issues for a modeling methodology . Radial Basis Function networks. These techniques in- clude efficient... methodology often then amounts to a careful consideration of the interplay between model complexity and reliability. These will be recurrent themes

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Plunges in the Bombay stock exchange: Characteristics and indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Kinjal; Sharma, Chandradew; Bittu, N.

2017-09-01

We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of eight years from January 2006-March 2014. Using the data of the daily returns of a period of eight years we investigate the financial cross-correlation co-efficients among the sectors of BSE and Price by Earning (PE) ratio of BSE Sensex. We show that the behavior of these quantities during normal periods and during crisis is very different. We show that the PE ratio shows a particular distinctive trend in the approach to a crash of the financial market and can therefore be used as an indicator of an impending catastrophe. We propose that a model of analysis of crashes in a financial market can be built using two parameters: (i) the PE ratio and (ii) the largest eigenvalue of the cross-correlation matrix.

Stabilizing effect of volatility in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenti, Davide; Fazio, Giorgio; Spagnolo, Bernardo

2018-06-01

In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered to be synonymous with greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting time, i.e., the average time a stock return takes to undergo for the first time a large negative (crashes) or positive variation (rallies), as an indicator of price stability, and relate this to a standard measure of volatility. In an empirical analysis of daily returns for 1071 stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange, we find that this measure of stability displays nonmonotonic behavior, with a maximum, as a function of volatility. Also, we show that the statistical properties of the empirical data can be reproduced by a nonlinear Heston model. This analysis implies that, contrary to conventional wisdom, not only high, but also low volatility values can be associated with higher instability in financial markets. This proposed measure of stability can be extremely useful in risk control.

Closing the gap between socioeconomic and financial implications of residential and community level hydrogen-based energy systems: Incentives needed for a bridge to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verduzco, Laura E.

The use of hydrogen as an energy carrier has the potential to decrease the amount of pollutants emitted to the atmosphere, significantly reduce our dependence on imported oil and resolve geopolitical issues related to energy consumption. The current status of hydrogen technology makes it prohibitive and financially risky for most investors to commit the money required for large-scale hydrogen production. Therefore, alternative strategies such as small and medium-scale hydrogen applications should be implemented during the early stages of the transition to the hydrogen economy in order to test potential markets and technology readiness. While many analysis tools have been built to estimate the requirements of the transition to a hydrogen economy, few have focused on small and medium-scale hydrogen production and none has paired financial with socioeconomic costs at the residential level. The computer-based tool (H2POWER) presented in this study calculates the capacity, cost and socioeconomic impact of the systems needed to meet the energy demands of a home or a community using home and neighborhood refueling units, which are systems that can provide electricity and heat to meet the energy demands of either (1) a home and automobile or (2) a cluster of homes and a number of automobiles. The financial costs of the production, processing and delivery sub-systems that conform the refueling units are calculated using cost data of existing technology and normalizing them to calculate capital and net present cost. The monetary value of the externalities (socioeconomic analysis) caused by each system is calculated by H2POWER through a statistical analysis of the cost associated to various externalities. Additionally, H2POWER calculates the financial impact of different penalties and incentives (such as net metering, low interest loans, fuel taxes, and emission penalties) on the cost of the system from the point of view of a developer and a homeowner. In order to assess the benefits and costs of hydrogen-based alternatives, H2POWER compares the financial and socioeconomic costs of home and neighborhood refueling units to a baseline of "conventional" sources of residential electricity, space heat, water heat, and vehicle fuel. The model can also calculate the "gap" between the financial cost of the technology and the environmental cost of the externalities that are generated using conventional energy sources. H2POWER is a flexible, user-friendly tool that allows the user to specify different production pathways, supplemental power sources (renewable and non-renewable), component characteristics, electricity mixes, and other analysis parameters in order to customize the results to specific projects. The model has also built-in default values for each of the input fields based on national averages, standard technology specifications and input from experts.

Algebraic aspects of evolution partial differential equation arising in the study of constant elasticity of variance model from financial mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsepa, Tanki; Aziz, Taha; Fatima, Aeeman; Khalique, Chaudry Masood

2018-03-01

The optimal investment-consumption problem under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model is investigated from the perspective of Lie group analysis. The Lie symmetry group of the evolution partial differential equation describing the CEV model is derived. The Lie point symmetries are then used to obtain an exact solution of the governing model satisfying a standard terminal condition. Finally, we construct conservation laws of the underlying equation using the general theorem on conservation laws.

Using Internet Resources in Teaching Financial Reporting and Analysis of Multinational Enterprises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agami, Abdel M.

2003-01-01

Provides some sources of corporate financial information on the Internet and illustrates how to use these resources in teaching international business and, more specifically, financial reporting and analysis of multinational enterprises. Points out some of the advantages and limitations of these resources. (EV)

Return Intervals Approach to Financial Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

Financial fluctuations play a key role for financial markets studies. A new approach focusing on properties of return intervals can help to get better understanding of the fluctuations. A return interval is defined as the time between two successive volatilities above a given threshold. We review recent studies and analyze the 1000 most traded stocks in the US stock markets. We find that the distribution of the return intervals has a well approximated scaling over a wide range of thresholds. The scaling is also valid for various time windows from one minute up to one trading day. Moreover, these results are universal for stocks of different countries, commodities, interest rates as well as currencies. Further analysis shows some systematic deviations from a scaling law, which are due to the nonlinear correlations in the volatility sequence. We also examine the memory in return intervals for different time scales, which are related to the long-term correlations in the volatility. Furthermore, we test two popular models, FIGARCH and fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Both models can catch the memory effect but only fBm shows a good scaling in the return interval distribution.

Toward quantum-like modeling of financial processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

2007-05-01

We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. We propose to describe behavioral financial factors (e.g., expectations of traders) by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. Trajectories of prices are determined by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) ("hard" market conditions, e.g., natural resources) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions). On the one hand, our Bohmian model is a quantum-like model for the financial market, cf. with works of W. Segal, I. E. Segal, E. Haven, E. W. Piotrowski, J. Sladkowski. On the other hand, (since Bohmian mechanics provides the possibility to describe individual price trajectories) it belongs to the domain of extended research on deterministic dynamics for financial assets (C.W.J. Granger, W.A. Barnett, A. J. Benhabib, W.A. Brock, C. Sayers, J. Y. Campbell, A. W. Lo, A. C. MacKinlay, A. Serletis, S. Kuchta, M. Frank, R. Gencay, T. Stengos, M. J. Hinich, D. Patterson, D. A. Hsieh, D. T. Caplan, J.A. Scheinkman, B. LeBaron and many others).

Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality*

PubMed Central

Lusardi, Annamaria; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

We show that financial knowledge is a key determinant of wealth inequality in a stochastic lifecycle model with endogenous financial knowledge accumulation, where financial knowledge enables individuals to better allocate lifetime resources in a world of uncertainty and imperfect insurance. Moreover, because of how the U.S. social insurance system works, better-educated individuals have most to gain from investing in financial knowledge. Our parsimonious specification generates substantial wealth inequality relative to a one-asset saving model and one where returns on wealth depend on portfolio composition alone. We estimate that 30–40 percent of retirement wealth inequality is accounted for by financial knowledge. PMID:28555088

Simulation of financial market via nonlinear Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, Bonggyun; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

In this research, we propose a practical method for simulating the financial return series whose distribution has a specific heaviness. We employ the Ising model for generating financial return series to be analogous to those of the real series. The similarity between real financial return series and simulated one is statistically verified based on their stylized facts including the power law behavior of tail distribution. We also suggest the scheme for setting the parameters in order to simulate the financial return series with specific tail behavior. The simulation method introduced in this paper is expected to be applied to the other financial products whose price return distribution is fat-tailed.

75 FR 35289 - International Services Surveys: BE-180, Benchmark Survey of Financial Services Transactions...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-22

...-AA73 International Services Surveys: BE-180, Benchmark Survey of Financial Services Transactions Between U.S. Financial Services Providers and Foreign Persons AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis... Survey of Financial Services Transactions between U.S. Financial Services Providers and Foreign Persons...

An Integrated Model of Application, Admission, Enrollment, and Financial Aid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DesJardins, Stephen L.; Ahlburg, Dennis A.; McCall, Brian Patrick

2006-01-01

We jointly model the application, admission, financial aid determination, and enrollment decision process. We find that expectations of admission affect application probabilities, financial aid expectations affect enrollment and application behavior, and deviations from aid expectations are strongly related to enrollment. We also conduct…

A model of international financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaizoji, Taisei

2001-10-01

This paper proposes a model of international financial crises that is based on the statistical mechanics. In our model the international stock market is composed of two groups of traders mutually influencing each other with respect to their decision behavior, and financial contagion between markets occurs as a result of attempts by traders in the domestic market to imitate the behavior of traders who participate into exchange in a foreign market. This provides a channel through which a crisis in one market such as contemporaneous stock market crashes can be transmitted to other markets. We show that the model can explain the stylized facts characterizing periods of recent international financial crises.

Comparative Analysis of VaR Estimation of Double Long-Memory GARCH Models: Empirical Analysis of China's Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Guangxi; Guo, Jianping; Xu, Lin

GARCH models are widely used to model the volatility of financial assets and measure VaR. Based on the characteristics of long-memory and lepkurtosis and fat tail of stock market return series, we compared the ability of double long-memory GARCH models with skewed student-t-distribution to compute VaR, through the empirical analysis of Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) and Shenzhen Component Index (SZCI). The results show that the ARFIMA-HYGARCH model performance better than others, and at less than or equal to 2.5 percent of the level of VaR, double long-memory GARCH models have stronger ability to evaluate in-sample VaRs in long position than in short position while there is a diametrically opposite conclusion for ability of out-of-sample VaR forecast.

Automotive Manufacturers' Cost/Revenue, Financial and Risk Analysis : Projected Impact of Automobile Manufacturing on the Plastics Industry

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-08-01

The report is part of a study to update the historical and projected cost/revenue analysis of the U.S. domestic automobile manufacturers. It includes the evaluation of the historical and projected financial data to assess the corporate financial posi...

What School Financial Reports Reveal and Hide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Donald L.

The problem of full disclosure of the financial operation and position of a school system is discussed in this paper. Techniques described for analyzing revenue and expenditure patterns include percentage changes and index numbers for horizontal analysis and proportions for vertical analysis. Also discussed are how financial reports are affected…

Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: Integrating bio-economic models and life cycle analysis approaches

PubMed Central

Glithero, N.J.; Ramsden, S.J.; Wilson, P.

2012-01-01

Climate change and energy security concerns have driven the development of policies that encourage bioenergy production. Meeting EU targets for the consumption of transport fuels from bioenergy by 2020 will require a large increase in the production of bioenergy feedstock. Initially an increase in ‘first generation’ biofuels was observed, however ‘food competition’ concerns have generated interest in second generation biofuels (SGBs). These SGBs can be produced from co-products (e.g. cereal straw) or energy crops (e.g. miscanthus), with the former largely negating food competition concerns. In order to assess the sustainability of feedstock supply for SGBs, the financial, environmental and energy costs and benefits of the farm system must be quantified. Previous research has captured financial costs and benefits through linear programming (LP) approaches, whilst environmental and energy metrics have been largely been undertaken within life cycle analysis (LCA) frameworks. Assessing aspects of the financial, environmental and energy sustainability of supplying co-product second generation biofuel (CPSGB) feedstocks at the farm level requires a framework that permits the trade-offs between these objectives to be quantified and understood. The development of a modelling framework for Managing Energy and Emissions Trade-Offs in Agriculture (MEETA Model) that combines bio-economic process modelling and LCA is presented together with input data parameters obtained from literature and industry sources. The MEETA model quantifies arable farm inputs and outputs in terms of financial, energy and emissions results. The model explicitly captures fertiliser: crop-yield relationships, plus the incorporation of straw or removal for sale, with associated nutrient impacts of incorporation/removal on the following crop in the rotation. Key results of crop-mix, machinery use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kg of crop product and energy use per hectare are in line with previous research and industry survey findings. Results show that the gross margin – energy trade-off is £36 GJ−1, representing the gross margin forgone by maximising net farm energy cf. maximising farm gross margin. The gross margin–GHG emission trade-off is £0.15 kg−1 CO2 eq, representing the gross margin forgone per kg of CO2 eq reduced when GHG emissions are minimised cf. maximising farm gross margin. The energy–GHG emission trade-off is 0.03 GJ kg−1 CO2 eq quantifying the reduction in net energy from the farm system per kg of CO2 eq reduced when minimising GHG emissions cf. maximising net farm energy. When both farm gross margin and net farm energy are maximised all the cereal straw is baled for sale. Sensitivity analysis of the model in relation to different prices of cereal straw shows that it becomes financially optimal to incorporate wheat straw at price of £11 t−1 for this co-product. Local market conditions for straw and farmer attitudes towards incorporation or sale of straw will impact on the straw price at which farmers will supply this potential bioenergy feedstock and represent important areas for future research. PMID:25540473

Modeling asset price processes based on mean-field framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ieda, Masashi; Shiino, Masatoshi

2011-12-01

We propose a model of the dynamics of financial assets based on the mean-field framework. This framework allows us to construct a model which includes the interaction among the financial assets reflecting the market structure. Our study is on the cutting edge in the sense of a microscopic approach to modeling the financial market. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our model concretely, we provide a case study, which is the pricing problem of the European call option with short-time memory noise.

System Advisor Model, SAM 2011.12.2: General Description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilman, P.; Dobos, A.

2012-02-01

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2011.12.2, released on December 2, 2011. SAM is software that models the cost and performance of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financing structures for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail ratesmore » (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). Advanced analysis options facilitate parametric, sensitivity, and statistical analyses, and allow for interfacing SAM with Microsoft Excel or with other computer programs. SAM is available as a free download at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.« less

A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2011-06-01

Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

NREL Suite of Tools for PV and Storage Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgqvist, Emma M; Salasovich, James A

Many different factors such as the solar resource, technology costs and incentives, utility cost and consumption, space available, and financial parameters impact the technical and economic potential of a PV project. NREL has developed techno-economic modeling tools that can be used to evaluate PV projects at a site.

A data envelopment analysis approach to compare the environmental efficiency of energy technologies and countries

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to increasing financial and environmental concerns, governmental rules, regulations and incentives alternative energy sources are soon expected to grow at a much faster pace than conventional sources of energy. However, the current body of research providing comparative decision making models fo...

Cost modeling to justify technology acquisitions.

PubMed

Vanden Brink, J; Gray, S

1997-06-01

In an era of diminishing resources, healthcare providers must justify new technology acquisitions. Cost modeling is one method of evaluating the financial impact a technology acquisition will have on a healthcare facility or integrated delivery system. This methodology requires careful data collection and a thorough analysis of both current costs and future cost savings resulting from the new technology. By using a cost modeling methodology, providers will be able to achieve competitive and economic advantages by analyzing both cost and value.

Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds.

PubMed

Burdick, Clark; Manchester, Joyce

Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.

Enhancing Links between Research and Practice to Improve Consumer Financial Education and Well-Being

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hensley, Billy J.

2015-01-01

A recent meta-analysis of the effect of financial literacy and financial education on downstream financial behaviors has shown a weak collective impact of the work of financial education. While the findings are not stellar, they do not support a dismantling of financial education programs and funding. This paper examines the findings of the…

Public health financial management competencies.

PubMed

Honoré, Peggy A; Costich, Julia F

2009-01-01

The absence of appropriate financial management competencies has impeded progress in advancing the field of public health finance. It also inhibits the ability to professionalize this sector of the workforce. Financial managers should play a critical role by providing information relevant to decision making. The lack of fundamental financial management knowledge and skills is a barrier to fulfilling this role. A national expert committee was convened to examine this issue. The committee reviewed standards related to financial and business management practices within public health and closely related areas. Alignments were made with national standards such as those established for government chief financial officers. On the basis of this analysis, a comprehensive set of public health financial management competencies was identified and examined further by a review panel. At a minimum, the competencies can be used to define job descriptions, assess job performance, identify critical gaps in financial analysis, create career paths, and design educational programs.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Financial strain and smoking cessation among men and women within a self-guided quit attempt.

PubMed

Reitzel, Lorraine R; Langdon, Kirsten J; Nguyen, Nga T; Zvolensky, Michael J

2015-08-01

Financial strain, defined as an unfavorable asset-to-needs ratio, has been associated with reduced odds of smoking cessation in the context of a structured clinical study providing cessation assistance. This study reports on a secondary data analysis that assessed the association of financial strain and biochemically-verified smoking abstinence within a structured clinical study of smokers making a self-guided cessation attempt. Participants (N=58; 65.5% men) were enrolled in a study about anxiety sensitivity and smoking cessation whereby they were instructed to initiate a self-guided quit attempt. Relations between financial strain and biochemically-verified smoking abstinence on the quit day and at Days 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 post-quit were assessed using generalized estimating equations controlling for age, sex, race, education, partner status, pre-quit cigarettes smoked per day, and time. Associations between financial strain and abstinence in the whole sample were marginal (aOR=.94, 95% CI=.87-1.01, observations=293; p=.07). However, sex was a significant moderator: greater financial strain was associated with lower odds of abstinence for men (aOR=.90, 95% CI=.80-1.00, observations=201; p=.05), but not women (aOR=1.05, 95% CI=.91-1.21, observations=92; p=.48). Results indicated that financial strain was associated with lower odds of cessation among men undergoing a self-guided quit attempt in the context of a structured clinical study. These data suggest that financial strain may be an important socioeconomic determinant of smoking cessation and support its relevance for better understanding socioeconomic-based smoking-related health disparities. Future work may benefit by exploring sex-specific models of financial strain in the context of smoking cessation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financial Strain and Smoking Cessation among Men and Women within a Self-Guided Quit Attempt

PubMed Central

Reitzel, Lorraine R.; Langdon, Kirsten J.; Nguyen, Nga T.; Zvolensky, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Financial strain, defined as an unfavorable asset-to-needs ratio, has been associated with reduced odds of smoking cessation in the context of a structured clinical study providing cessation assistance. This study reports on a secondary data analysis that assessed the association of financial strain and biochemically-verified smoking abstinence within a structured clinical study of smokers making a self-guided cessation attempt. Participants (N=58; 65.5% men) were enrolled in a study about anxiety sensitivity and smoking cessation whereby they were instructed to initiate a self-guided quit attempt. Relations between financial strain and biochemically-verified smoking abstinence on the quit day and at Days 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 post-quit were assessed using generalized estimating equations controlling for age, sex, race, education, partner status, pre-quit cigarettes smoked per day, and time. Associations between financial strain and abstinence in the whole sample were marginal (aOR=.94, 95% CI=.87-1.01, observations=293; p=.07). However, sex was a significant moderator: greater financial strain was associated with lower odds of abstinence for men (aOR=.90, 95% CI= .80-1.00, observations=201; p=.05), but not women (aOR=1.05, 95% CI= .91-1.21, observations=92; p=.48). Results indicated that financial strain was associated with lower odds of cessation among men undergoing a self-guided quit attempt in the context of a structured clinical study. These data suggest financial strain may be an important socioeconomic determinant of smoking cessation and support its relevance for better understanding socioeconomic-based smoking-related health disparities. Future work may benefit by exploring sex-specific models of financial strain in the context of smoking cessation. PMID:25879712

Investigating the Financial Performance of Universities of Medical Science and Health Services in Iran, Using Data Envelopment Analysis

PubMed Central

NASIRIPOUR, Amir Ashkan; TOLOIE-ASHLAGHY, Abbas; TA-BIBI, Seyed Jamaleddin; MALEKI, Mohammad Reza; GORJI, Hassan Abolghasem

2014-01-01

Abstract Background Universities of Medical Science and Health Services (UMSHSs) are among the main organizations in Iran's health-care section. Improving their efficiency in financial resource management through creating an appropri-ate coordination between consumption and resources is strategically vital. Investigating the financial performance as well as ranking the Iranian UMSHSs is the research objective. Methods The study is of descriptive and applied type. The study population includes the UMSHSs of Iran (n=42) among which 24 UMSHSs are selected. DEA is used with the aim to model and assess the financial performance in-cluding 4 inputs and 3 outputs. Also, linear regression is applied to determine the effectiveness of the applied indices as well as the level of the financial performance. Data are obtained from the Budgeting Center in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, during 2010 mainly through forms designed based on the available balance sheets. Results The average score of financial performance assessment for UMSHSs based on the DEA of input-oriented data is 0.74, assuming a constant scale of DEA-CRS. Thus, approximately 25% of the studied UMSHSs have maxi-mum relative performance and totally, there is about a 30% capacity to increase the financial performance in these UMSHSs. Conclusion Most Iranian UMSHSs do not have high financial performance. This can be due to problems in financial resource management especially in asset combining. Therefore, compilation and execution of a comprehensive pro-gram for organizational change and agility with the aim to create a kind of optimized combination of resources and assets is strongly recommended. PMID:26060685

Financial risk of the biotech industry versus the pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Golec, Joseph; Vernon, John A

2009-01-01

The biotech industry now accounts for a substantial and growing proportion of total R&D spending on new medicines. However, compared with the pharmaceutical industry, the biotech industry is financially fragile. This article illustrates the financial fragility of the biotech and pharmaceutical industries in the US and the implications of this fragility for the effects that government regulation could have on biotech firms. Graphical analysis and statistical tests were used to show how the biotech industry differs from the pharmaceutical industry. The two industries' characteristics were measured and compared, along with various measures of firms' financial risk and sensitivity to government regulation. Data from firms' financial statements provided accounting-based measures and firms' stock returns applied to a multifactor asset pricing model provided financial market measures. The biotech industry was by far the most research-intensive industry in the US, averaging 38% R&D intensity (ratio of R&D spending to total firm assets) over the past 25 years, compared with an average of 25% for the pharmaceutical industry and 3% for all other industries. Biotech firms exhibited lower and more volatile profits and higher market-related and size-related risk, and they suffered more negative stock returns in response to threatened government price regulation. Biotech firms' financial risks increase their costs of capital and make them more sensitive to government regulations that affect their financial prospects. As biotech products grow to represent a larger share of new medicines, general stock market conditions and government regulations could have a greater impact on the level of innovation of new medicines.

Applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Meilan; Fu, Hongwei

2017-09-01

Recently, polynomial optimization has many important applications in optimization, financial economics and eigenvalues of tensor, etc. This paper studies the applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment. We consider the standard mean-variance risk measurement model and the mean-variance risk measurement model with transaction costs. We use Lasserre's hierarchy of semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations to solve the specific cases. The results show that polynomial optimization is effective for some financial optimization problems.

Curbing the Financial Exploitation of the Poor: Financial Literacy and Social Work Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karger, Howard

2015-01-01

The article investigates the importance of financial literacy content for social work students who at some point in their career will encounter financially-excluded clients. Financial literacy content can include understanding how fringe economy businesses operate, including their business model, knowledge of local and national nonpredatory…

Examining the Relationship between Financial Issues and Divorce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dew, Jeffrey; Britt, Sonya; Huston, Sandra

2012-01-01

Using longitudinal data from the National Survey of Families and Households and both wife- and husband-reported data (N = 4,574 couples), this study examined how financial well-being, financial disagreements, and perceptions of financial inequity were associated with the likelihood of divorce. When financial disagreements were in the model,…

Financial Knowledge and Aptitudes: Impacts on College Students' Financial Well-Being

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, S. Fiona; Chau, Albert Wai-Lap; Chan, Kim Yin-Kwan

2012-01-01

The study examines relationship between college students' money-related aptitudes, financial management practices and financial well-being. By integrating Kidwell, Brinberg and Turrisi's model of money management (2003) and other research on financial well-being, we surveyed 802 university students in Hong Kong. Our findings confirm the hypothesis…

Indirect effect of financial strain on daily cortisol output through daily negative to positive affect index in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

PubMed

Puterman, Eli; Haritatos, Jana; Adler, Nancy E; Sidney, Steve; Schwartz, Joseph E; Epel, Elissa S

2013-12-01

Daily affect is important to health and has been linked to cortisol. The combination of high negative affect and low positive affect may have a bigger impact on increasing HPA axis activity than either positive or negative affect alone. Financial strain may both dampen positive affect as well as increase negative affect, and thus provides an excellent context for understanding the associations between daily affect and cortisol. Using random effects mixed modeling with maximum likelihood estimation, we examined the relationship between self-reported financial strain and estimated mean daily cortisol level (latent cortisol variable), based on six salivary cortisol assessments throughout the day, and whether this relationship was mediated by greater daily negative to positive affect index measured concurrently in a sample of 776 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants. The analysis revealed that while no total direct effect existed for financial strain on cortisol, there was a significant indirect effect of high negative affect to low positive affect, linking financial strain to elevated cortisol. In this sample, the effects of financial strain on cortisol through either positive affect or negative affect alone were not significant. A combined affect index may be a more sensitive and powerful measure than either negative or positive affect alone, tapping the burden of chronic financial strain, and its effects on biology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement

PubMed Central

Palaci, Francisco; Jiménez, Irene; Topa, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR), the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research. PMID:29209198

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement.

PubMed

Palaci, Francisco; Jiménez, Irene; Topa, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR), the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research.

A Feature Fusion Based Forecasting Model for Financial Time Series

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Liu, Quan; Yang, Jie

2014-01-01

Predicting the stock market has become an increasingly interesting research area for both researchers and investors, and many prediction models have been proposed. In these models, feature selection techniques are used to pre-process the raw data and remove noise. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed to forecast stock market behavior with the aid of independent component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and a support vector machine. First, two types of features are extracted from the historical closing prices and 39 technical variables obtained by independent component analysis. Second, a canonical correlation analysis method is utilized to combine the two types of features and extract intrinsic features to improve the performance of the prediction model. Finally, a support vector machine is applied to forecast the next day's closing price. The proposed model is applied to the Shanghai stock market index and the Dow Jones index, and experimental results show that the proposed model performs better in the area of prediction than other two similar models. PMID:24971455

A New Activity-Based Financial Cost Management Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qingge, Zhang

The standard activity-based financial cost management model is a new model of financial cost management, which is on the basis of the standard cost system and the activity-based cost and integrates the advantages of the two. It is a new model of financial cost management with more accurate and more adequate cost information by taking the R&D expenses as the accounting starting point and after-sale service expenses as the terminal point and covering the whole producing and operating process and the whole activities chain and value chain aiming at serving the internal management and decision.

Inflation and Financial Statement Analysis in the International Accounting Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riordan, Diane A.; Riordan, Michael P.

2009-01-01

This article provides an exercise for students to contemplate the effects of inflation during financial statement analysis. Even small amounts of inflation accumulating over time can grow to distort a company's reported financial position and results of operations. The growing economies in emerging markets, the international market for oil, and…

Financial Health Indicators for Institutions of Higher Learning: A Literature Review and Synthesis. Technical Report No. 13.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brubaker, Paul

Forty studies that have formulated financial standards or indicators for colleges and universities are reviewed. The 40 investigations have been conducted since 1973 and have generated over 300 financial indicators. Information is provided on reasons for performing financial analysis, databases that generate the financial information, theoretical…

Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) Model to Detect Financial Crisis in Indonesia Based on Import and Export Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana; Rahma Dwi, Sisca

2017-06-01

A country is said to be a crisis when the financial system is experiencing a disruption that affects systems that can not function efficiently. The performance efficiency of macroeconomic indicators especially in imports and exports can be used to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Based on the import and export indicators from 1987 to 2015, the movement of these indicators can be modelled using SWARCH three states. The results showed that SWARCH (3,1) model was able to detect the crisis that occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. Using this model, it can be concluded that Indonesia is prone to financial crisis in 2016.

Community pediatric hospitalists providing care in the emergency department: an analysis of physician productivity and financial performance.

PubMed

Dudas, Robert A; Monroe, David; McColligan Borger, Melissa

2011-11-01

Community hospital pediatric inpatient programs are being threatened by current financial and demographic trends. We describe a model of care and report on the financial implications associated with combining emergency department (ED) and inpatient care of pediatric patients. We determine whether this type of model could generate sufficient revenue to support physician salaries for continuous in-house coverage in community hospitals. Financial productivity and selected performance indicators were obtained from a retrospective review of registration and billing records. Data were obtained from 2 community-based pediatric hospitalist programs, which are part of a single health system and included care delivered in the ED and inpatient settings during a 1-year period from July 1, 2008, to July 1, 2009. Together, the combined programs were able to generate 6079 total relative value units and collections of $244,828 annually per full-time equivalent (FTE). Salary, benefits, and practice expenses totaled $235,674 per FTE. Thus, combined daily revenues exceeded expenses and provided 104% of physician salary, benefits, and practice expenses. However, 1 program generated a net profit of $329,715 ($40,706 per FTE), whereas the other recorded a loss of $207,969 ($39,994 per FTE). Emergency department throughput times and left-without-being-seen rates at both programs were comparable to national benchmarks. Incorporating ED care into a pediatric hospitalist program can be an effective strategy to maintain the financial viability of pediatric services at community hospitals with low inpatient volumes that seek to provide 24-hour pediatric staffing.

The organizational and financial viability of an orthopedic trauma service.

PubMed

Harris, Mitchel B; Cayen, Barry

2009-12-01

This study was designed to explore the effect of establishing an Orthopedic Trauma Service (OTS) on departmental revenue within an academic orthopedic department. The effect of the OTS on physician and resident perceptions of job satisfaction, education, and quality of patient care were also evaluated. A proforma financial analysis was undertaken using an optimization model to predict the potential financial performance of an OTS before its implementation. Financial data were then collected prospectively for the first year of the OTS and compared with the preceding year's financial data. All residents and faculty in the department completed visual analog scale surveys after the formation of the service. While maintaining a fixed amount of work production (work relative value units [WRVUs]) per year, our model predicted an $111,000 increase in departmental charges as a result of a shift in the elective case mix. After implementation of the OTS, elective charges/WRVU increased by 7.4% while trauma charges/WRVU increased by 2.6%. This, combined with a minor increase in departmental work volume (115,661 WRVUs pre-OTS vs. 117,577 WRVUs post-OTS) and an improvement in collections/charge (47-48%), yielded a departmental collection increase of 11% ($1.1 million). Resident and faculty job satisfaction improved, as did the perception of the quality of trauma care that was being provided. The organization and implementation of an OTS within an academic orthopedic department can lead to an improved professional experience for residents and faculty, the perception of improved patient care for the trauma patient, and an increase in departmental revenue.

Non-Disruptive Tactics of Suppression Are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics

PubMed Central

Siegel, David A.

2011-01-01

Background Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual's action depends on a subset of others' actions, given by each individual's network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior. Methods and Findings Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question. Conclusions Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them. PMID:21533247

Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water year 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poch, L. A.; Veselka, T. D.; Palmer, C. S.

2012-07-16

This report examines the financial implications of experimental flows conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) in water year 2011. It is the third report in a series examining financial implications of experimental flows conducted since the Record of Decision (ROD) was adopted in February 1997 (Reclamation 1996). A report released in January 2011 examined water years 1997 to 2005 (Veselka et al. 2011), and a report released in August 2011 examined water years 2006 to 2010 (Poch et al. 2011). An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. Thismore » study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes both that operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and the experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP powerplant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases, the GTMax model was also used to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions that were made to criteria to accommodate the experimental releases, and Western operating practices. Experimental releases conducted in water year 2011 resulted only in financial costs; the total cost of all experimental releases was about $622,000.« less

Multi-scaling modelling in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ruipeng; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2007-12-01

In the recent years, a new wave of interest spurred the involvement of complexity in finance which might provide a guideline to understand the mechanism of financial markets, and researchers with different backgrounds have made increasing contributions introducing new techniques and methodologies. In this paper, Markov-switching multifractal models (MSM) are briefly reviewed and the multi-scaling properties of different financial data are analyzed by computing the scaling exponents by means of the generalized Hurst exponent H(q). In particular we have considered H(q) for price data, absolute returns and squared returns of different empirical financial time series. We have computed H(q) for the simulated data based on the MSM models with Binomial and Lognormal distributions of the volatility components. The results demonstrate the capacity of the multifractal (MF) models to capture the stylized facts in finance, and the ability of the generalized Hurst exponents approach to detect the scaling feature of financial time series.

Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

Management information systems--green light for better info.

PubMed

Foster, K; McBride, N

1992-02-27

An EIS gathers financial and non-financial data from a variety of sources, both internal and external to an organisation, and presents them accessibly and understandably. It should facilitate the presentation of data so that it is timely and relevant to senior managers' needs. Generally, there are three categories of EIS: Front-end tools, which enhance the presentation of output from existing systems. For example, they can take the output from a general ledger system and enhance its appearance but do not change the content. Internal consolidation tools, which take data from a number of internal sources (such as the general ledger), store it in a central database, and present it to users. This is often done in report book format to which all EIS style functions may be applied. Integrators of information, which integrate data from internal and external sources. Much of the data is non-financial and a major emphasis is on the users' ability to communicate with each other. The key functions that may be included within an EIS are: Drill down. The facility to explore increasingly detailed levels of data. Trends and variances against pre-set targets, such as financial budgets. Graphics and tabular reporting. Data integrity checking. Analysis of the data, modelling and the production of forecasts using time series analysis techniques. Exception reporting through the use of some form of alert. Incorporation of text into the output.

Adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor quality of life among financial service employees in Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Luiz Sergio; Barreto, Sandhi Maria

2012-01-01

Workers in the financial services sector are exposed to great stress at work. This study investigates whether exposure to adverse psychosocial work conditions is independently associated with poor health-related physical and mental quality of life among financial services workers. We studied a nationwide representative sample of 2,054 workers of a large Brazilian state bank in 2008. Adverse psychosocial work conditions were investigated by the Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) scale and the Job content questionnaire (JCQ). Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-12). Poor mental and physical HRQL was defined by the lowest quartiles of the SF-12 final score distributions. Associations were investigated using multiple logistic regression analysis. In the multivariate analysis, exposures to low control and lack of social support at work (JCQ) were associated with poor HRQL in the physical domain. Increasing effort-reward imbalance and overcommitment (ERI), on the other hand, were associated with poor HRQL in the mental domain, with a significant statistical trend. Overcommitment was also associated with poor physical HRQL. The results suggest that exposure to adverse psychosocial work conditions has a negative impact on both domains of HRQL among financial service workers. They also indicate that ERI and DC models capture different aspects of job strain.

Global Spent Fuel Logistics Systems Study (GSFLS). Volume 3A. GSFLS technical analysis (appendix). Interim report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriger, A.

1978-01-31

This report is a part of the interim report documentation for the Global Spent Fuel Logistics System (GSFLS) study. The technical and financial considerations underlying a global spent fuel logistics systems have been studied and are reported. The Pacific Basin is used as a model throughout this report; however the stated methodology and, in many cases, considerations and conclusions are applicable to other global regions. Spent fuel discharge profiles for Pacific Basin Countries were used to determine the technical systems requirements for alternative concepts. Functional analyses and flows were generated to define both system design requirements and logistics parameters. Amore » technology review was made to ascertain the state-of-the-art of relevant GSFLS technical systems. Modular GSFLS facility designs were developed using the information generated from the functional analysis and technology review. The modular facility designs were used as a basis for siting and cost estimates for various GSFLS alternatives. Various GSFLS concepts were analyzed from a financial and economic perspective in order to provide total concepts costs and ascertain financial and economic sensitivities to key GSFLS variations. Results of the study include quantification of GSFLS facility and hardware requirements; drawings of relevant GSFLS facility designs; system cost estimates; financial reports - including user service charges; and comparative analyses of various GSFLS alternatives.« less

Business strategy and financial structure: an empirical analysis of acute care hospitals.

PubMed

Ginn, G O; Young, G J; Beekun, R I

1995-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between business strategy and financial structure in the U.S. hospital industry. We studied two dimensions of financial structure--liquidity and leverage. Liquidity was assessed by the acid ratio, and leverage was assessed using the equity funding ratio. Drawing from managerial, finance, and resource dependence perspectives, we developed and tested hypotheses about the relationship between Miles and Snow strategy types and financial structure. Relevant contextual financial and organizational variables were controlled for statistically through the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance technique. The relationship between business strategy and financial structure was found to be significant. Among the Miles and Snow strategy types, defenders were found to have relatively high liquidity and low leverage. Prospectors typically had low liquidity and high leverage. Implications for financial planning, competitive assessment, and reimbursement policy are discussed.

Nonlinear complexity of random visibility graph and Lempel-Ziv on multitype range-intensity interacting financial dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yali; Wang, Jun

2017-09-01

In an attempt to investigate the nonlinear complex evolution of financial dynamics, a new financial price model - the multitype range-intensity contact (MRIC) financial model, is developed based on the multitype range-intensity interacting contact system, in which the interaction and transmission of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are simulated by viruses spreading. Two new random visibility graph (VG) based analyses and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) are applied to study the complex behaviors of return time series and the corresponding random sorted series. The VG method is the complex network theory, and the LZC is a non-parametric measure of complexity reflecting the rate of new pattern generation of a series. In this work, the real stock market indices are considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation data of the proposed model. Further, the numerical empirical study shows the similar complexity behaviors between the model and the real markets, the research confirms that the financial model is reasonable to some extent.

Financial analysis of brucellosis control for small-scale goat farming in the Bajío region, Mexico.

PubMed

Oseguera Montiel, David; Bruce, Mieghan; Frankena, Klaas; Udo, Henk; van der Zijpp, Akke; Rushton, Jonathan

2015-03-01

Brucellosis is an endemic disease in small-scale goat husbandry systems in Mexico. It is a zoonosis and the economic consequences can be large, although estimates are not available for the Mexican goat sector. Our objective was to conduct a financial analysis of brucellosis control in a prominent dairy goat production area of the Bajío region, Mexico. We used three models: (1) a brucellosis transmission model at village flock level (n=1000 head), (2) a flock growth model at smallholder flock level (n=23 head) using output of model 1 and (3) cost-benefit analysis of several brucellosis control scenarios based on output of model 2. Scenarios consisted of test-and-slaughter or vaccination or a combination of both compared to the base situation (no control). The average net present values (NPV) of using vaccination over a 5-year period was 3.8 US$ (90% CI: 1.3-6.6) and 20 US$ (90% CI: 11.3-28.6) over a 10-year period per goat. The average benefit-cost ratios over a 5-year period and 10-year period were 4.3 US$ (90% CI: 2.2-6.9) and 12.3 US$ (90% CI: 7.5-17.3) per goat, respectively. For the total dairy goat population (38,462 head) of the study area (the Bajío of Jalisco and Michoacán) the NPV's over a 5-year and 10-year period were 0.15 million US$ and 0.8 million US$. However, brucellosis prevalence was predicted to remain relatively high at about 12%. Control scenarios with test-and-slaughter predicted to reduce brucellosis prevalence to less than 3%, but this produced a negative NPV over a 5-year period ranging from -31.6 to -11.1 US$ and from -31.1 to 7.5 US$ over a 10-year period. A brucellosis control campaign based on vaccination with full coverage is economically profitable for the goat dairy sector of the region although smallholders would need financial support in case test-and-slaughter is applied to reduce the prevalence more quickly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic resonance imaging volume of the angular gyri predicts financial skill deficits in people with amnestic mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Griffith, H Randall; Stewart, Christopher C; Stoeckel, Luke E; Okonkwo, Ozioma C; den Hollander, Jan A; Martin, Roy C; Belue, Katherine; Copeland, Jacquelynn N; Harrell, Lindy E; Brockington, John C; Clark, David G; Marson, Daniel C

2010-02-01

To better understand how brain atrophy in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) as measured using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumetrics could affect instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) such as financial abilities. Controlled, matched-sample, cross-sectional analysis regressing MRI volumetrics with financial performance measures. University medical and research center. Thirty-eight people with MCI and 28 older adult controls. MRI volumetric measurement of the hippocampi, angular gyri, precunei, and medial frontal lobes. Participants also completed neuropsychological tests and the Financial Capacity Instrument (FCI). Correlations were performed between FCI scores and MRI volumes in the group with MCI. People with MCI performed significantly below controls on the FCI and had significantly smaller hippocampi. Among people with MCI, performance on the FCI was moderately correlated with angular gyri and precunei volumes. Regression models demonstrated that angular gyrus volumes were predictive of FCI scores. Tests of mediation showed that measures of arithmetic and possibly attention partially mediated the relationship between angular gyrus volume and FCI score. Impaired financial abilities in amnestic MCI correspond with volume of the angular gyri as mediated by arithmetic knowledge. The findings suggest that early neuropathology within the lateral parietal region in MCI leads to a breakdown of cognitive abilities that affect everyday financial skills. The findings have implications for diagnosis and clinical care of people with MCI and AD.

How to Make Financial Aid "Freshman-Friendly"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugh, Susan L.; Johnson, David B.

2011-01-01

Ultimately, making financial aid "freshman friendly" also makes financial aid "sophomore friendly," "junior friendly," and "senior friendly." Indiana University has in place an Office of Enrollment Management (OEM) model that includes focused financial aid packaging strategies complemented by unique contact…

Small financial incentives increase smoking cessation in homeless smokers: a pilot study.

PubMed

Businelle, Michael S; Kendzor, Darla E; Kesh, Anshula; Cuate, Erica L; Poonawalla, Insiya B; Reitzel, Lorraine R; Okuyemi, Kolawole S; Wetter, David W

2014-03-01

Although over 70% of homeless individuals smoke, few studies have examined the effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions in this vulnerable population. The purpose of this pilot study was to compare the effectiveness of shelter-based smoking cessation clinic usual care (UC) to an adjunctive contingency management (CM) treatment that offered UC plus small financial incentives for smoking abstinence. Sixty-eight homeless individuals in Dallas, Texas (recruited in 2012) were assigned to UC (n=58) or UC plus financial incentives (CM; n=10) groups and were followed for 5 consecutive weeks (1 week pre-quit through 4 weeks post-quit). A generalized linear mixed model regression analysis was conducted to compare biochemically-verified abstinence rates between groups. An additional model examined the interaction between time and treatment group. The participants were primarily male (61.8%) and African American (58.8%), and were 49 years of age on average. There was a significant effect of treatment group on abstinence overall, and effects varied over time. Follow-up logistic regression analyses indicated that CM participants were significantly more likely than UC participants to be abstinent on the quit date (50% vs. 19% abstinent) and at 4 weeks post-quit (30% vs. 1.7% abstinent). Offering small financial incentives for smoking abstinence may be an effective way to facilitate smoking cessation in homeless individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship Between Financial Distress and Life-Course Socioeconomic Inequalities in Well-Being: Cross-National Analysis of European Welfare States

PubMed Central

Pell, Jill P.; Mitchell, Richard

2015-01-01

Objectives. We investigated to what extent current financial distress explains the relationship between life-course socioeconomic position and well-being in Southern, Scandinavian, Postcommunist, and Bismarckian welfare regimes. Methods. We analyzed individuals (n = 18 324) aged 50 to 75 years in the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, 2006–2009. Well-being was measured with CASP-12 (which stands for control, autonomy, self-realization, and pleasure) and life satisfaction. We generated a life-course socioeconomic index from 8 variables and calculated multilevel regression models (containing individuals nested within 13 countries), as well as stratified single-level models by welfare regime. Results. Life-course socioeconomic advantage was related to higher well-being; the difference in life satisfaction between the most and least advantaged was 2.09 (95% confidence interval = 1.87, 2.31) among women and 1.65 (95% confidence interval = 1.43, 1.87) among men. The weakest associations were found among Scandinavian countries. Financial distress was associated with lower well-being and attenuated the relationship between life-course socioeconomic position and well-being in all regimes (ranging from 34.26% in Postcommunist to 72.22% in Scandinavian countries). Conclusions. We found narrower inequalities in well-being in the Scandinavian regime. Reducing financial distress may help improve well-being and reduce inequalities. PMID:26270289

Investigating the financial impact of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome on smallholder pig farmers in Cambodia.

PubMed

Zhang, A; Young, J R; Suon, S; Ashley, K; Windsor, P A; Bush, R D

2017-04-01

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) was first identified in Cambodia in 2010, causing serious problems on affected farms, although the costs of the disease have not been well defined. The household financial impact of a PRRS outbreak in Cambodia was investigated using partial budget analysis, examining the economic benefit of three proposed interventions: (i) quarterly PRRS vaccine use, (ii) biosecurity implementation, and (iii) implementation of vaccination and biosecurity. The analyses were applied to three farm models: (i) a two-sow breeder; (ii) a five-pig fattener; and (iii) a single-sow, three-pig farrow-to-finish/breeder. Data was derived from a knowledge, attitude, and practice survey of 240 smallholder farmers (61 with pigs) from 16 villages across 5 provinces, plus case studies of 12 farmers selected for more detailed financial analysis. The study indicated that financial losses associated with PRRS were severe, with a 25% mean loss to the annual household income of 61 interviewed farmers. Partial budget analysis identified a strongly positive incentive for vaccination and biosecurity to be implemented in combination, with the highest annual net benefit of USD 357.10 realised by the breeder system. However, due to current scarcity of the PRRS vaccine and its high cost to smallholders, biosecurity interventions may be more cost-effective, especially for low PRRS incidence regions. It was concluded that PRRS critically constrains the profitability of smallholder pig farms and that these findings will assist development of village-level livestock disease risk management programmes that encourage adoption of vaccination and biosecurity practices to enhance farmer livelihoods in Cambodia.

What physicists should learn about finance (if they want to)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly

2006-03-01

There has been growing interest among physicists to Econophysics, i.e. analysis and modeling of financial and economic processes using the concepts of theoretical Physics. There has been also perception that the financial industry is a viable alternative for those physicists who are not able or are not willing to pursue career in their major field. However in our times, the Wall Street expects from applicants for quantitative positions not only the knowledge of the stochastic calculus and the methods of time series analysis but also of such concepts as option pricing, portfolio management, and risk measurement. Here I describe a synthetic course based on my book ``Quantitative Finance for Physicists'' (Elsevier, 2004) that outlines both worlds: Econophysics and Mathematical Finance. This course may be offered as elective for senior undergraduate or graduate Physics majors.

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

Public ideas and values concerning the commercialization of organ donation in four European countries.

PubMed

Schweda, Mark; Schicktanz, Silke

2009-03-01

Against the background of the increasing academic and political debate on financial incentives for organ donation, we conducted a qualitative investigation on the conditions under which European citizens would actually consider or refuse financial incentives for organ donation. Our paper combines an analysis of data that were collected in eight Focus Group discussions on transplantation medicine with lay people and patients from four European countries (Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden) with a critical re-assessment of the dichotomy between gift and commodity in the recent political and academic discourse. We find that the distinction between living and post mortem donation on the one hand, and between different models of financial incentives on the other, plays a crucial role for the participants' values and ideas about organ donation. We discuss the significance of our results with particular respect to the central role of reciprocity and draw conclusions for the bioethical and biopolitical debate.

Impact of Research and Development, Analysis, and Standardization on PV Project Financing Costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, David J; Margolis, Robert M; Jones-Albertus, Rebecca

The technical report discusses how R and D efforts focused on removing perceived risk from cash flows to investors have the potential to lower the cost of capital and increase the amount of leverage in a solar project. It also discusses how creating business efficiencies that allow financing transactions to occur more quickly with less effort can reduce the upfront costs associated with arranging financing for a solar project or group of projects. The paper then assesses the impact that these R and D activities might have on the volatility of PV asset cash flows and asset value, as wellmore » as the upfront costs of arranging a financial transaction. Finally, we insert these assumptions into financial models to analyze their impacts on the cost of capital for equity and debt investors, project leverage, and upfront financial transaction costs.« less

A Design for a Model College Financial Aid Office. Revised 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Dusen, William D.; O'Hearne, John J.

The third edition of a guide for the college financial aid office substantially modifies previously presented material because of the changes that have been occurring in college student financial aid. Topics are as follows: development of student financial aid programs; current forms of college student financial aid; principles and practices of…

Financial Socialization of First-Year College Students: The Roles of Parents, Work, and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shim, Soyeon; Barber, Bonnie L.; Card, Noel A.; Xiao, Jing Jian; Serido, Joyce

2010-01-01

This cross-sectional study tests a conceptual financial socialization process model, specifying four-levels that connect anticipatory socialization during adolescence to young adults' current financial learning, to their financial attitudes, and to their financial behavior. A total of 2,098 first-year college students (61.9% females) participated…

Modeling of the financial market using the two-dimensional anisotropic Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, L. S.

2017-09-01

We have used the two-dimensional classical anisotropic Ising model in an external field and with an ion single anisotropy term as a mathematical model for the price dynamics of the financial market. The model presented allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the strong of the site anisotropy term Δ which reinforces the sensitivity of the agent's sentiment to external news.

Trusted Advisors, Decision Models and Other Keys to Communicating Science to Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, E.

2006-12-01

Water resource management decisions often involve multiple parties engaged in contentious negotiations that try to navigate through complex combinations of legal, social, hydrologic, financial, and engineering considerations. The standard approach for resolving these issues is some form of multi-party negotiation, a formal court decision, or a combination of the two. In all these cases, the role of the decision maker(s) is to choose and implement the best option that fits the needs and wants of the community. However, each path to a decision carries the risk of technical and/or financial infeasibility as well as the possibility of unintended consequences. To help reduce this risk, decision makers often rely on some type of predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. Typically, decision makers are supported in the analysis process by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis as well as the day to day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the case of water resource management, the analysis is frequently a numerical model or set of models that can simulate various management decisions across multiple systems and output results that illustrate the impact on areas of concern. Thus, in order to communicate scientific knowledge to the decision makers, the quality of the communication between the analysts, the trusted advisor, and the decision maker must be clear and direct. To illustrate this concept, a multi-attribute decision analysis matrix will be used to outline the value of computer model-based collaborative negotiation approaches to guide water resources decision making and communication with decision makers. In addition, the critical role of the trusted advisor and other secondary participants in the decision process will be discussed using examples from recent water negotiations.

Burst and inter-burst duration statistics as empirical test of long-range memory in the financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontis, V.; Kononovicius, A.

2017-10-01

We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic differential equations. In this contribution we address this problem by analyzing empirical return and trading activity time series from the Forex. From the empirical time series we obtain probability density functions of burst and inter-burst duration. Our analysis reveals that the power-law exponents of the obtained probability density functions are close to 3 / 2, which is a characteristic feature of the one-dimensional stochastic processes. This is in a good agreement with earlier proposed model of absolute return based on the non-linear stochastic differential equations derived from the agent-based herding model.

Bankruptcy prediction based on financial ratios using Jordan Recurrent Neural Networks: a case study in Polish companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardinata, Lingga; Warsito, Budi; Suparti

2018-05-01

Complexity of bankruptcy causes the accurate models of bankruptcy prediction difficult to be achieved. Various prediction models have been developed to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. Machine learning has been widely used to predict because of its adaptive capabilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is one of machine learning which proved able to complete inference tasks such as prediction and classification especially in data mining. In this paper, we propose the implementation of Jordan Recurrent Neural Networks (JRNN) to classify and predict corporate bankruptcy based on financial ratios. Feedback interconnection in JRNN enable to make the network keep important information well allowing the network to work more effectively. The result analysis showed that JRNN works very well in bankruptcy prediction with average success rate of 81.3785%.

Weighted fractional permutation entropy and fractional sample entropy for nonlinear Potts financial dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kaixuan; Wang, Jun

2017-02-01

In this paper, recently introduced permutation entropy and sample entropy are further developed to the fractional cases, weighted fractional permutation entropy (WFPE) and fractional sample entropy (FSE). The fractional order generalization of information entropy is utilized in the above two complexity approaches, to detect the statistical characteristics of fractional order information in complex systems. The effectiveness analysis of proposed methods on the synthetic data and the real-world data reveals that tuning the fractional order allows a high sensitivity and more accurate characterization to the signal evolution, which is useful in describing the dynamics of complex systems. Moreover, the numerical research on nonlinear complexity behaviors is compared between the returns series of Potts financial model and the actual stock markets. And the empirical results confirm the feasibility of the proposed model.

Does the U.S. exercise contagion on Italy? A theoretical model and empirical evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerqueti, Roy; Fenga, Livio; Ventura, Marco

2018-06-01

This paper deals with the theme of contagion in financial markets. At this aim, we develop a model based on Mixed Poisson Processes to describe the abnormal returns of financial markets of two considered countries. In so doing, the article defines the theoretical conditions to be satisfied in order to state that one of them - the so-called leader - exercises contagion on the others - the followers. Specifically, we employ an invariant probabilistic result stating that a suitable transformation of a Mixed Poisson Process is still a Mixed Poisson Process. The theoretical claim is validated by implementing an extensive simulation analysis grounded on empirical data. The countries considered are the U.S. (as the leader) and Italy (as the follower) and the period under scrutiny is very large, ranging from 1970 to 2014.

Cigarette tax and public health: what are the implications of financially stressed smokers for the effects of price increases on smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Martire, Kristy A; Mattick, Richard P; Doran, Christopher M; Hall, Wayne D

2011-03-01

This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Shared vision promotes family firm performance.

PubMed

Neff, John E

2015-01-01

A clear picture of the influential drivers of private family firm performance has proven to be an elusive target. The unique characteristics of private family owned firms necessitate a broader, non-financial approach to reveal firm performance drivers. This research study sought to specify and evaluate the themes that distinguish successful family firms from less successful family firms. In addition, this study explored the possibility that these themes collectively form an effective organizational culture that improves longer-term firm performance. At an organizational level of analysis, research findings identified four significant variables: Shared Vision (PNS), Role Clarity (RCL), Confidence in Management (CON), and Professional Networking (OLN) that positively impacted family firm financial performance. Shared Vision exhibited the strongest positive influence among the significant factors. In addition, Family Functionality (APGAR), the functional integrity of the family itself, exhibited a significant supporting role. Taken together, the variables collectively represent an effective family business culture (EFBC) that positively impacted the long-term financial sustainability of family owned firms. The index of effective family business culture also exhibited potential as a predictive non-financial model of family firm performance.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, delay discounting, and risky financial behaviors: A preliminary analysis of self-report data.

PubMed

Beauchaine, Theodore P; Ben-David, Itzhak; Sela, Aner

2017-01-01

Delay discounting-often referred to as hyperbolic discounting in the financial literature-is defined by a consistent preference for smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards, and by failure of future consequences to curtail current consummatory behaviors. Previous research demonstrates (1) excessive delay discounting among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), (2) common neural substrates of delay discounting and hyperactive-impulsive symptoms of ADHD, and (3) associations between delay discounting and both debt burden and high interest rate borrowing. This study extends prior research by examining associations between ADHD symptoms, delay discounting, and an array of previously unevaluated financial outcomes among 544 individuals (mean age 35 years). Controlling for age, income, sex, education, and substance use, ADHD symptoms were associated with delay discounting, late credit card payments, credit card balances, use of pawn services, personal debt, and employment histories (less time spent at more jobs). Consistent with neural models of reward processing and associative learning, more of these relations were attributable to hyperactive-impulsive symptoms than inattentive symptoms. Implications for financial decision-making and directions for future research are discussed.

The concept of financial value during the crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chournazidis, Anastasia J.

2015-02-01

The scope of this article regards economy as a scientific theory and its challenged credibility today. The aim of this notice is to determine whether financial science can utilize endogenous and exogenous balances in order to verify its credibility, directing the society under crisis to the road to rationality and perception. According to André Orléan's theory and his scientific thought, as expressed in his book "The Empire of Value. A New Foundation for Economics" analysis of the neoclassic theory suggesting usability as a trade's value and the seeking of useful goods as the core of production and exchanges. Contrary to this financial model dominating the modern financial science, it is advocated that trading value is an independent figure, an imperial authority achieved via money. Transactions are subject to an independent rationale according to Georg Simmel, since economy is a sui genesis sociological form, leading to usability. Reversing the cause and effect relation, it is proven that the independence of trading value is the basic principle to investigate economy. In this prism, we can redefine economy as part of the social system and social powers.

Shared vision promotes family firm performance

PubMed Central

Neff, John E.

2015-01-01

A clear picture of the influential drivers of private family firm performance has proven to be an elusive target. The unique characteristics of private family owned firms necessitate a broader, non-financial approach to reveal firm performance drivers. This research study sought to specify and evaluate the themes that distinguish successful family firms from less successful family firms. In addition, this study explored the possibility that these themes collectively form an effective organizational culture that improves longer-term firm performance. At an organizational level of analysis, research findings identified four significant variables: Shared Vision (PNS), Role Clarity (RCL), Confidence in Management (CON), and Professional Networking (OLN) that positively impacted family firm financial performance. Shared Vision exhibited the strongest positive influence among the significant factors. In addition, Family Functionality (APGAR), the functional integrity of the family itself, exhibited a significant supporting role. Taken together, the variables collectively represent an effective family business culture (EFBC) that positively impacted the long-term financial sustainability of family owned firms. The index of effective family business culture also exhibited potential as a predictive non-financial model of family firm performance. PMID:26042075

Towards Decentralized and Goal-Oriented Models of Institutional Resource Allocation: The Spanish Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopez, Maria Jose Gonzalez

2006-01-01

The search for more flexibility in financial management of public universities demands adjustments in budgeting strategies. International studies on this topic recommend wider financial autonomy for management units, the use of budgeting models based on performance, the implementation of formula systems for the determination of financial needs of…

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Instructional Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkin, Marvin C.

A model of cost-effectiveness is outlined which enables consideration of some non-financial, as well as financial, elements of educational systems at school or district levels. The model enables the decision-maker to compare educational outcomes of different units, to assess the impact of alternative levels of financial input, and to select…

Modelling inflation in transportation, comunication and financial services using B-Spline time series model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparti; Prahutama, Alan; Santoso, Rukun

2018-05-01

Inflation is an increase in the price of goods and services in general where the goods and services are the basic needs of society or the decline of the selling power of a country’s currency. Significant inflationary increases occurred in 2013. This increase was contributed by a significant increase in some inflation sectors / groups i.e transportation, communication and financial services; the foodstuff sector, and the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel sectors. However, significant contributions occurred in the transportation, communications and financial services sectors. In the model of IFIs in the transportation, communication and financial services sector use the B-Spline time series approach, where the predictor variable is Yt, whereas the predictor is a significant lag (in this case Yt-1). In modeling B-spline time series determined the order and the optimum knot point. Optimum knot determination using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). In inflation modeling for transportation sector, communication and financial services obtained model of B-spline order 2 with 2 points knots produce MAPE less than 50%.

Effect of Personal Financial Knowledge on College Students' Credit Card Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robb, Cliff A.; Sharpe, Deanna L.

2009-01-01

Analysis of survey data collected from 6,520 students at a large Midwestern University affirmed that financial knowledge is a significant factor in the credit card decisions of college students but not entirely in expected ways. Results of a double hurdle analysis indicated that students with relatively higher levels of financial knowledge were…

Can Financial Need Analysis be Simplified?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orwig, M. D.; Jones, Paul K.

This paper examines the problem of collecting financial data on aid applicants. A 10% sample (12,383) of student records was taken from the 1968-69 alphabetic history file for the ACT Student Need Analysis Service. Random sub-samples were taken in certain phases of the study. A relatively small number of financial variables were found to predict…

Building bridges with clinicians.

PubMed

Brady, Timothy S; Hankins, Robert W

2003-06-01

Clinical and ancillary staff need and welcome the opportunity to be involved in healthcare financial management. To provide them with the financial tools they need, a group of clinical and nonclinical professionals identified the key components of a curriculum that addressed financial, managerial, and cost accounting, along with training objectives that include understanding cost allocation, trend analysis, and variance analysis.

Does the ``National Free Health Care'' have financial sustainability in China? A case of Shenmu County, Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Lijian

2015-01-01

The most populous country in the world, China needs more health care. Shenmu's practices show that National Free Health Care (NFHC) system has played an active role in fulfilling the citizen's needs of health care, and alleviating the difficulties in affording the medical costs and seeing doctors. But NFHC system needs substantial financial supporting. It is worth in-depth discussing and reflecting on whether the NFHC system suits China's national conditions. The paper establishes the population age structure forecasting model and NFHC financial burden model by decomposition methodology and actuarial modelling. And it finds than the financial burden of NFHC system in Shenmu will be increased from 256.64 million Yuan to 656.04 million Yuan in 2013-2020, with the growth rate 12.45%. Meanwhile, the percentage of the financial burden in government's annual revenue is less than 2% in 2013-2020, NFHC system has financial sustainability in Shenmu. According to the successful experience abroad and the calculated results in Shenmu, to extend the NFHC system to the whole of China has financial sustainability and realistic possibility.

Connecting Capital and Catastrophe in a Modeled World - How re/insurance and public science interact to manage risk for societal benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, R.

2010-12-01

Society, at local and global scales, seeks improved ways of managing the impact and sharing the costs of extreme natural events across populations via public and private mechanisms. Concerns over potential climate change and climate variability are amplifying the importance of these questions among public policy, business and regulatory communities. Through its financial obligations to exposed populations, the international insurance and reinsurance sector is directly affected by the frequency, severity and impact of extreme events. In many jurisdictions insurance contracts are regulated to tolerate the maximum probable loss events which are expected at 1 in 200 year return periods. This risk tolerance requirement renders re/insurers to undertake distinctive risk analysis among financial sector institutions. Natural catastrophe risk is a major component of re/insurer risk at the 1:200 year return period and a significant driver of the minimum capital requirements imposed on re/insurers. Historic claims records are insufficient on their own to evaluate potential losses at these return periods and over the last twenty years a significant sub-sector of the re/insurance industry has emerged known as catastrophe risk modelling. This has brought a progress and influential approach in applying science to gain a great handle of the expected losses to portfolios by developing increasingly robust analysis of hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and impacts. As a result of these innovations the re/insurance sector has become more resilient to natural catastrophes. In recent years there has been an accelerated and deepening interaction between the re/insurance sector and public science across natural hazards risk research. The medium of modelling is providing a common vehicle for science and industry communities to collaborate and new supply chains are emerging from blue sky public science, through to applied research and operation modelling. Increasingly both sides are sharing a common philosophy on the need for openness and transparency on modeling methodologies and results. The opportunities for future research and collaboration are significant. The re/insurance sector provides a fertile environment for developing refined research avenues on natural hazards and their social and economic impact. Meanwhile the financial aspects of insurance modelling enable possibilities for improving the scientific analysis from hazard, to risk and ultimately financial loss. This often assists in highlighting the importance and impact of research to funding agencies. Meanwhile re/insurer benefit from the knowledge, resources and rigour of public science. This invited talk with unpack these themes and provide case studies and perspectives of how the re/insurance sector and geophysical science communities can build upon this growing relationship for mutual benefit.

A dynamic factor model of the evaluation of the financial crisis in Turkey.

PubMed

Sezgin, F; Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Factor analysis has been widely used in economics and finance in situations where a relatively large number of variables are believed to be driven by few common causes of variation. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) which is a combination of factor and time series analysis, involves autocorrelation matrices calculated from multivariate time series. Dynamic factor models were traditionally used to construct economic indicators, macroeconomic analysis, business cycles and forecasting. In recent years, dynamic factor models have become more popular in empirical macroeconomics. They have more advantages than other methods in various respects. Factor models can for instance cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in regression-based analysis. In this study, a model which determines the effect of the global crisis on Turkey is proposed. The main aim of the paper is to analyze how several macroeconomic quantities show an alteration before the evolution of the crisis and to decide if a crisis can be forecasted or not.

Assessment of Alternative Student Aid Delivery Systems: Assessment of the Current Delivery System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Advanced Technology, Inc., Reston, VA.

The effects of the current system for delivering federal financial assistance to students under the Pell Grant, Guaranteed Student Loan (GSL), and campus-based programs are analyzed. Information is included on the use of the assessment model, which combines program evaluation, systems research, and policy analysis methodologies.…

Answering the Call for Accountability: An Activity and Cost Analysis Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carducci, Rozana; Kisker, Carrie B.; Chang, June; Schirmer, James

2007-01-01

This article summarizes the findings of a case study on the creation and application of an activity-based cost accounting model that links community college salary expenditures to mission-critical practices within academic divisions of a southern California community college. Although initially applied as a financial management tool in private…

Is Financial Literacy a Determinant of Health?

PubMed

Meyer, Melanie

2017-08-01

Changes in economic conditions and healthcare delivery models have shifted more healthcare costs to patients, resulting in greater patient financial responsibilities. As a result, it is important to understand the potential impact of financial literacy on patients' healthcare behavior. With the focus on delivering better health outcomes at lower costs, factors that influence patient behavior are important considerations for healthcare providers. Although researchers have proposed a variety of conceptual models that identify influential factors, those models do not fully address financial literacy and its potential impact patients' healthcare decisions. This article examines existing models of patient healthcare decision-making and current research on factors affecting patient decision-making and behavior and then presents recommendations for closing the identified gap in our current knowledge.

Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.

2010-04-21

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. This paper examines the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCD from 1997 to 2005.more » An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a ''without experiments'' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases, the GTMax model was also used to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions that were made to criteria to accommodate the experimental releases, and Western operating practices. Experimental releases in some water years resulted in financial benefits to Western while others resulted in financial costs. During the study period, the total financial costs of all experimental releases were $11.9 million.« less

Revised financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.

2011-01-11

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. This paper examines the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCD from 1997 to 2005.more » An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases, the GTMax model was also used to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions that were made to criteria to accommodate the experimental releases, and Western operating practices. Experimental releases in some water years resulted in financial benefits to Western whileothers resulted in financial costs. During the study period, the total financial costs of all experimental releases were more than $23 million.« less

12 CFR 390.461 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... and upon a new, bona fide credit analysis utilizing current information on financial condition and... means a financial institution that engages in the business of banking; that is recognized as a bank by.... Direct credit substitutes include: (1) Financial standby letters of credit that support financial claims...

12 CFR 390.461 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... and upon a new, bona fide credit analysis utilizing current information on financial condition and... means a financial institution that engages in the business of banking; that is recognized as a bank by.... Direct credit substitutes include: (1) Financial standby letters of credit that support financial claims...

12 CFR 390.461 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... and upon a new, bona fide credit analysis utilizing current information on financial condition and... means a financial institution that engages in the business of banking; that is recognized as a bank by.... Direct credit substitutes include: (1) Financial standby letters of credit that support financial claims...

7 CFR 246.25 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., Program or financial analysis, or an audit, that a State agency is not meeting the objectives set forth in..., information pertaining to financial operations, food delivery systems, food instrument issuance and redemption...) Financial and participation reports—(1) Monthly reports. (i) State agencies must submit financial and...

The next $120,000: a case study to illustrate analysis of alternative farm investments in fixed assets.

PubMed

St-Pierre, N R; Shoemaker, D; Jones, L R

2000-05-01

Dairy scientists specializing in the area of farm management are increasingly involved in analysis of farm investments in fixed assets. There have been instances where the wrong procedures were used to assess investments in fixed assets, leading to erroneous and possibly disastrous conclusions. A detailed case study of a dairy farm facing the decision of where best to invest an unexpected $120,000 windfall is used to illustrate the various facets of financial analysis. Indicators of profitability, liquidity, solvency, repayment capacity, and financial efficiency are explained and applied to the farm case to produce a detailed analysis of the current financial position of the firm. Long-range budgets of four alternate investment options and their impact on all financial indicators are presented. The four options are: 1) to pay down debt, 2) to purchase an additional 100 cows, 3) to install automatic milk yield recording in the parlor, and 4) to build new heifer facilities. All four investments are profitable. Therefore, an analysis limited to profitability indicators would conclude that any of the four options is a good investment. However, liquidity and financial efficiency issues showed that the option of purchasing 100 cows is far superior to the three others. We conclude that a complete and thorough financial analysis is required to evaluate the impact of long-run investments in fixed assets.

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Out-of-Pocket Financial Burden for Low-Income Families with Children: Socioeconomic Disparities and Effects of Insurance

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Alison A; Wong, Sabrina T; Kim, Sue E; Newacheck, Paul W

2005-01-01

Objective To determine whether socioeconomic disparities exist in the financial burden of out-of-pocket (OOP) health care expenditures for families with children, and whether health insurance coverage decreases financial burden for low-income families. Data Source The Household Component of the 2001 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Study Design Cross-sectional family-level analysis. We used bivariate statistics to examine whether financial burden varied by poverty level. Multivariate regression models were used to assess whether family insurance coverage was associated with level of financial burden for low-income families. The main outcome was financial burden, defined as the proportion of family income spent on OOP health care expenditures, including premiums, for all family members. Data Collection/Extraction We aggregated annual OOP expenditures for all members of 4,531 families with a child <18 years old. Family insurance coverage was categorized as follows: (1) all members publicly insured all year, (2) all members privately insured all year, (3) all members uninsured all year, (4) partial coverage, or (5) mix of public and private with no uninsured periods. Principal Findings A regressive gradient was noted for financial burden across income groups, with families with incomes <100 percent of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) spending a mean of $119.66 OOP per $1,000 of family income and families with incomes 100–199 percent FPL spending $66.30 OOP per $1,000, compared with $37.75 for families with incomes >400 percent FPL. For low-income families (<200 percent FPL), there was a 785 percent decrease in financial burden for those with full-year public coverage compared with those with full-year private insurance (p<.001). Conclusions Socioeconomic disparities exist in the financial burden of OOP health care expenditures for families with children. For low-income families, full-year public coverage provides significantly greater protection from financial burden than full-year private coverage. PMID:16336545

Out-of-pocket financial burden for low-income families with children: socioeconomic disparities and effects of insurance.

PubMed

Galbraith, Alison A; Wong, Sabrina T; Kim, Sue E; Newacheck, Paul W

2005-12-01

To determine whether socioeconomic disparities exist in the financial burden of out-of-pocket (OOP) health care expenditures for families with children, and whether health insurance coverage decreases financial burden for low-income families. The Household Component of the 2001 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Cross-sectional family-level analysis. We used bivariate statistics to examine whether financial burden varied by poverty level. Multivariate regression models were used to assess whether family insurance coverage was associated with level of financial burden for low-income families. The main outcome was financial burden, defined as the proportion of family income spent on OOP health care expenditures, including premiums, for all family members. We aggregated annual OOP expenditures for all members of 4,531 families with a child <18 years old. Family insurance coverage was categorized as follows: (1) all members publicly insured all year, (2) all members privately insured all year, (3) all members uninsured all year, (4) partial coverage, or (5) mix of public and private with no uninsured periods. A regressive gradient was noted for financial burden across income groups, with families with incomes <100 percent of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) spending a mean of 119.66 US dollars OOP per 1,000 US dollars of family income and families with incomes 100-199 percent FPL spending 66.30 US dollars OOP per 1,000 US dollars, compared with 37.75 US dollars for families with incomes >400 percent FPL. For low-income families (<200 percent FPL), there was a 785 percent decrease in financial burden for those with full-year public coverage compared with those with full-year private insurance (p < .001). Socioeconomic disparities exist in the financial burden of OOP health care expenditures for families with children. For low-income families, full-year public coverage provides significantly greater protection from financial burden than full-year private coverage.

The Independent School Financial Model Is Broken: Here's How We Fix It

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farber, John S.

2012-01-01

All of those who work in independent schools have read a variety of material regarding strategies to improve their financial model. But as the author sees it, in the current economic conditions, there are really only two possible solutions for improving financial structures. They can no longer rely on their traditional strategy of increasing…

Asset-building, financial self-management service model: piecing together consumer financial independence.

PubMed

Swarbrick, Margaret

2006-10-01

This program represents an innovative approach to traditional money-management services. This asset-building, financial self-management service model has the potential to positively affect recovery, self-sufficiency, and community integration for people with mental illnesses. It is hoped this program will be replicated by other providers in a way that may effect systems change.

A Social Network Analysis of the Financial Links Backing Health and Fitness Apps.

PubMed

Grundy, Quinn; Held, Fabian; Bero, Lisa

2017-11-01

To identify the major stakeholders in mobile health app development and to describe their financial relationships using social network analysis. We conducted a structured content analysis of a purposive sample of prominent health and fitness apps available in November 2015 in the United States, Canada, and Australia. We conducted a social network analysis of apps' developers, investors, other funding sources, and content advisors to describe the financial relationships underpinning health app development. Prominent health and fitness apps are largely developed by private companies based in North America, with an average of 4.7 (SD = 5.5) financial relations, including founders, external investors, acquiring companies, and commercial partnerships. Network analysis revealed a core of 41 sampled apps connected to 415 other entities by 466 financial relations. This core largely comprised apps published by major technology, pharmaceutical, and fashion corporations. About one third of apps named advisors, many of whom had commercial affiliations. Public health needs to extend its scrutiny and advocacy beyond the health messages contained within apps to understanding commercial influences on health and, when necessary, challenging them.

Growth in Adolescent Self-Regulation and Impact on Sexual Risk-Taking: A Curve-of-Factors Analysis.

PubMed

Crandall, AliceAnn; Magnusson, Brianna M; Novilla, M Lelinneth B

2018-04-01

Adolescent self-regulation is increasingly seen as an important predictor of sexual risk-taking behaviors, but little is understood about how changes in self-regulation affect later sexual risk-taking. Family financial stress may affect the development of self-regulation and later engagement in sexual risk-taking. We examined whether family financial stress influences self-regulation in early adolescence (age 13) and growth in self-regulation throughout adolescence (from age 13-17 years). We then assessed the effects of family financial stress, baseline self-regulation, and the development of self-regulation on adolescent sexual risk-taking behaviors at age 18 years. Using a curve-of-factors model, we examined these relationships in a 6-year longitudinal study of 470 adolescents (52% female) and their parents from a large northwestern city in the United States. Results indicated that family financial stress was negatively associated with baseline self-regulation but not with growth in self-regulation throughout adolescence. Both baseline self-regulation and growth in self-regulation were predictive of decreased likelihood of engaging in sexual risk-taking. Family financial stress was not predictive of later sexual risk-taking. Intervening to support the development of self-regulation in adolescence may be especially protective against later sexual risk-taking.

Maternal intrusiveness, family financial means, and anxiety across childhood in a large multiphase sample of community youth

PubMed Central

Cooper-Vince, Christine E.; Pincus, Donna B.; Comer, Jonathan S.

2013-01-01

Intrusive parenting has been positively associated with child anxiety, although examinations of this relationship to date have been largely confined to middle to upper middle class families and have rarely used longitudinal designs. With several leading interventions for child anxiety emphasizing the reduction of parental intrusiveness, it is critical to determine whether the links between parental intrusiveness and child anxiety broadly apply to families of all financial means, and whether parental intrusiveness prospectively predicts the development of child anxiety. This study employed latent growth curve analysis to evaluate the interactive effects of maternal intrusiveness and financial means on the developmental trajectory of child anxiety from 1st grade to age 15 in 1,121 children (50.7% male) and their parents from the NICHD SECCYD. The overall model was found to provide good fit, revealing that early maternal intrusiveness and financial means did not impact individual trajectories of change in child anxiety, which were stable from 1st to 5th grade, and then decrease from 5th grade to age 15. Cross-sectional analyses also examined whether family financial means moderated contemporaneous relationships between maternal intrusiveness and child anxiety in 3rd and 5th grades. The relationship between maternal intrusiveness and child anxiety was moderated by family financial means for 1st graders, with stronger links found among children of lower family financial means, but not for 3rd and 5th graders. Neither maternal intrusiveness nor financial means in 1st grade predicted subsequent changes in anxiety across childhood. Findings help elucidate for whom and when maternal intrusiveness has the greatest link with child anxiety and can inform targeted treatment efforts. PMID:23929005

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaier, Eric M.; Edlich, Alexander; Santmire, Tara S.; Wingrove, Earl R.., III

1999-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

An extension of trust and TAM model with IDT in the adoption of the electronic logistics information system in HIS in the medical industry.

PubMed

Tung, Feng-Cheng; Chang, Su-Chao; Chou, Chi-Min

2008-05-01

Ever since National Health Insurance was introduced in 1995, the number of insurants increased to over 96% from 50 to 60%, with a continuous satisfaction rating of about 70%. However, the premium accounted for 5.77% of GDP in 2001 and the Bureau of National Health Insurance had pressing financial difficulties, so it reformed its expenditure systems, such as fee for service, capitation, case payment and the global budget system in order to control the rising medical costs. Since the change in health insurance policy, most hospitals attempted to reduce their operating expenses and improve efficiency. Introducing the electronic logistics information system is one way of reducing the cost of the department of central warehouse and the nursing stations. Hence, the study proposes a technology acceptance research model and examines how nurses' acceptance of the e-logistics information system has been affected in the medical industry. This research combines innovation diffusion theory, technology acceptance model and added two research parameters, trust and perceived financial cost to propose a new hybrid technology acceptance model. Taking Taiwan's medical industry as an experimental example, this paper studies nurses' acceptance of the electronic logistics information system. The structural equation modeling technique was used to evaluate the causal model and confirmatory factor analysis was performed to examine the reliability and validity of the measurement model. The results of the survey strongly support the new hybrid technology acceptance model in predicting nurses' intention to use the electronic logistics information system. The study shows that 'compatibility', 'perceived usefulness', 'perceived ease of use', and 'trust' all have great positive influence on 'behavioral intention to use'. On the other hand 'perceived financial cost' has great negative influence on behavioral intention to use.

Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

2017-08-01

As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

Did the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker? Examining changes in hospital financial condition.

PubMed

Bazzoli, Gloria J; Lindrooth, Richard C; Clement, Jan P; Zhao, Mei; Chukmaitov, Askar

2006-01-01

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, many industry observers expressed the view that there was a growing dichotomy in the hospital industry in which financially weak hospitals were getting weaker and financially strong hospitals were getting stronger. Although existing analysis of cross-sectional financial data concur with this view, our analysis of 1993 to 2000 longitudinal data provides only partial support. We find that about one half of general acute care hospitals classified as financially strong in 1993-95 continued to be strong in 1998-00. More persistence was found for hospitals in weak financial position in 1993-95 with about 60 to 70 percent of them continuing to be weak in 1998-00. Persistently weak hospitals did experience deteriorating financial condition whereas persistently strong hospitals appeared at best to hold their ground financially. Although many Medicare payment policies appear well-targeted to hospitals that would otherwise have financial problems (for example, isolated rural institutions and teaching hospitals), policymakers may need to consider the development of temporary loan or grant programs to assist hospitals that experience transitory financial problems during difficult times.

7 CFR 4279.2 - Definitions and abbreviations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... from a series of financial statements of a business over a period of time. Financial statement analysis... appreciation. The difference between the current net book value recorded on the financial statements (original... financial accounting records located in St. Louis, Missouri. High-impact business. A business that offers...

7 CFR 4279.2 - Definitions and abbreviations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... from a series of financial statements of a business over a period of time. Financial statement analysis... appreciation. The difference between the current net book value recorded on the financial statements (original... financial accounting records located in St. Louis, Missouri. High-impact business. A business that offers...

76 FR 4380 - NASA Advisory Council; Audit, Finance and Analysis Committee; Meeting.

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-25

..., Office of the Chief Financial Officer. (OCFO), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters... meeting includes the following topics: Review of FY2010 Financial Statement Audit and Roadmap to Unqualified Opinion in FY 2011. Chief Financial Officer Update and Review of OCFO Responsibilities. Financial...

College-Based Personal Finance Education: Student Interest in Three Delivery Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goetz, Joseph; Cude, Brenda J.; Nielsen, Robert B.; Chatterjee, Swarn; Mimura, Yoko

2011-01-01

Using online survey responses from 509 undergraduate students, three financial education methods (on-campus financial counseling center, online financial management resources, and in-person educational workshops) were examined. Using a social constructionist framework, the analysis controlled for various demographic and financial factors. The…

24 CFR 886.101 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... potentially serious financial problems which, on the basis of financial and/or management analysis, appear to... potentially serious financial difficulties. A first priority should be given to projects with presently serious financial problems, which are likely to result in a claim on the insurance fund in the near future...

24 CFR 886.101 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... potentially serious financial problems which, on the basis of financial and/or management analysis, appear to... potentially serious financial difficulties. A first priority should be given to projects with presently serious financial problems, which are likely to result in a claim on the insurance fund in the near future...

The Potential of Combined Heat and Power Generation, Wind Power Generation and Load Management Techniques for Cost Reduction in Small Electricity Supply Systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Jeremy Hugh

Available from UMI in association with The British Library. Requires signed TDF. An evaluation is made of the potential fuel and financial savings possible when a small, autonomous diesel system sized to meet the demands of an individual, domestic consumer is adapted to include: (1) combined heat and power (CHP) generation, (2) wind turbine generation, (3) direct load control. The potential of these three areas is investigated by means of time-step simulation modelling on a microcomputer. Models are used to evaluate performance and a Net Present Value analysis used to assess costs. A cost/benefit analysis then enables those areas, or combination of areas, that facilitate and greatest savings to be identified. The modelling work is supported by experience gained from the following: (1) field study of the Lundy Island wind/diesel system, (2) laboratory testing of a small diesel generator set, (3) study of a diesel based CHP unit, (4) study of a diesel based direct load control system, (5) statistical analysis of data obtained from the long-term monitoring of a large number of individual household's electricity consumption. Rather than consider the consumer's electrical demand in isolation, a more flexible approach is adopted, with consumer demand being regarded as the sum of primarily two components: a small, electricity demand for essential services and a large, reschedulable demand for heating/cooling. The results of the study indicate that: (1) operating a diesel set in a CHP mode is the best strategy for both financial and fuel savings. A simple retrofit enables overall conversion efficiencies to be increased from 25% to 60%, or greater, at little cost. (2) wind turbine generation in association with direct load control is a most effective combination. (3) a combination of both the above areas enables greatest overall financial savings, in favourable winds resulting in unit energy costs around 20% of those of diesel only operation.

Fundamentals of financial statement analysis for academic physician managers.

PubMed

Danzi, J T; Boom, M L

1998-04-01

Academic medical centers (i.e., teaching hospitals) and academic medical practices are under pressure to control costs to compete with for-profit health care institutions. The authors explain how academic physician managers who want to control costs wisely must first understand the cost structure of the medical center or practice and compare that structure with those of for-profit institutions. Doing this requires a firm understanding of how to use a valuable tool, financial statement analysis, to assess an institution's health and performance. Such analysis consists of calculating a variety of financial ratios (e.g., operating income divided by revenues; net income divided by total assets) and then comparing them with the corresponding ratios that are considered industry norms. Three types of financial statements (defined in detail) lend themselves to this approach: the balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows. The authors define standard financial ratios, point out their uses and limitations, and emphasize that a ratio's meaning derives from comparing it with the corresponding benchmark ratio in the industry as a whole. Ratios should be used not as the end point of assessing financial status, but as ways to identify possible problems that require further investigation. Analysis of trends of ratios over time within an institution is a complementary approach. The authors then discuss the use of ratios in three standard types of institutional evaluation: of performance, of liquidity and leverage, and of strategic planning. In addition, they present the financial statement of a fictitious academic medical center as an example of how to use ratios for financial statement analysis. The authors emphasize that the key to using the ratios they discuss and hundreds of others is first to decide what question needs answering and then to choose the relevant ratios to provide a basis for finding the answer.

Financial Analysis for Academic Units. AAHE-ERIC/Higher Education Research Report No. 7, 1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Donald L.

The state-of-the-art of financial analysis for academic units within institutions of higher education is evaluated with attention directed to: how the cost of an academic unit is determined, how revenue is identified with academic units, how costs are analyzed, how revenues and expenditures are projected, and how the financial efficiency of an…

Financial Resource Allocation in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ušpuriene, Ana; Sakalauskas, Leonidas; Dumskis, Valerijonas

2017-01-01

The paper considers a problem of financial resource allocation in a higher education institution. The basic financial management instruments and the multi-stage cost minimization model created are described involving financial instruments to constraints. Both societal and institutional factors that determine the costs of educating students are…

The Real Cost of "Cosmetic Tourism" Cost Analysis Study of "Cosmetic Tourism" Complications Presenting to a Public Hospital.

PubMed

Livingston, Ryan; Berlund, Paul; Eccles-Smith, Jade; Sawhney, Raja

2015-01-01

"Cosmetic Tourism," the process of traveling overseas for cosmetic procedures, is an expanding global phenomenon. The model of care by which these services are delivered can limit perioperative assessment and postoperative follow-up. Our aim was to establish the number and type of complications being treated by a secondary referral hospital resulting from "cosmetic tourism" and the cost that has been incurred by the hospital in a 1-year period. Retrospective cost analysis and chart review of patients admitted to the hospital between the financial year of 2012 and 2013 were performed. Twelve "cosmetic tourism" patients presented to the hospital, requiring admission during the study period. Breast augmentation was the most common procedure and infected prosthesis was the most common complication (n = 4). Complications ranged from infection, pulmonary embolism to penile necrosis. The average cost of treating these patients was $AUD 12 597.71. The overall financial burden of the complication to the hospital was AUD$151 172.52. The "cosmetic tourism" model of care appears to be, in some cases, suboptimal for patients and their regional hospitals. In the cases presented in this study, it appears that care falls on the patient local hospital and home country to deal with the complications from their surgery abroad. This incurs a financial cost to that hospital in addition to redirecting medical resources that would otherwise be utilized for treating noncosmetic complications, without any remuneration to the local provider.

Varieties of indebtedness: Financialization and mortgage market institutions in Europe.

PubMed

Van Gunten, Tod; Navot, Edo

2018-02-01

During the global housing boom that preceded the 2007-9 financial crisis, household debt increased substantially in many European countries, posing a challenge for literature on financialization and the institutional heterogeneity of mortgage markets. This paper examines recent institutional shifts in European mortgage markets and specifies three analytically distinct models of debt accumulation: inclusion, extension and intensity. While existing research has emphasized inclusion (access to homeownership), we show that financial intensification is an important determinant of cross-national variation in debt. We assess the variation in financial intensity in six European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using household-level survey data. Our results show that inclusion and expansion explain only part of the cross-national variation in mortgage debt to income ratios. Furthermore, household financial behavior is consistent with the financial intensity model, and variation in the degree of financial intensification explains a substantial portion of the cross-national difference in debt levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hospital financial performance: does IT governance make a difference?

PubMed

Burke, Darrell; Randeree, Ebrahim; Menachemi, Nir; Brooks, Robert G

2008-01-01

This study examined whether information technology (IT) governance, a term describing the decision authority and reporting structures of the chief information officer (CIO), is related to the financial performance of hospitals. The study was conducted using a combination of primary survey data regarding health care IT adoption and reporting structures of Florida acute care hospitals, with secondary data on hospital financial performance. Multiple regression models were used to evaluate the relationship of the 3 most commonly identified reporting structures. Outcome variables included measures of operating revenue and operating expense. All models controlled for overall IT adoption, ownership, membership in a hospital system, case mix, and hospital bed size. The results suggest that IT governance matters when it comes to hospital financial performance. Reporting to the chief financial officer brings positive outcomes; reporting to the chief executive officer has a mixed financial result; and reporting to the chief operating officer was not associated with discernible financial impact.

Conceptual model and map of financial exploitation of older adults.

PubMed

Conrad, Kendon J; Iris, Madelyn; Ridings, John W; Fairman, Kimberly P; Rosen, Abby; Wilber, Kathleen H

2011-10-01

This article describes the processes and outcomes of three-dimensional concept mapping to conceptualize financial exploitation of older adults. Statements were generated from a literature review and by local and national panels consisting of 16 experts in the field of financial exploitation. These statements were sorted and rated using Concept Systems software, which grouped the statements into clusters and depicted them as a map. Statements were grouped into six clusters, and ranked by the experts as follows in descending severity: (a) theft and scams, (b) financial victimization, (c) financial entitlement, (d) coercion, (e) signs of possible financial exploitation, and (f) money management difficulties. The hierarchical model can be used to identify elder financial exploitation and differentiate it from related but distinct areas of victimization. The severity hierarchy may be used to develop measures that will enable more precise screening for triage of clients into appropriate interventions.

Surfing the money tides: understanding the foreign exchange market through metaphors.

PubMed

Oberlechner, Thomas; Slunecko, Thomas; Kronberger, Nicole

2004-03-01

This study describes metaphorical conceptualizations of the foreign exchange market held by market participants and examines how these metaphors socially construct the financial market. Findings are based on 55 semi-structured interviews with senior foreign exchange experts at banks and at financial news providers in Europe. We analysed interview transcripts by metaphor analysis, a method based on cognitive linguistics. Results indicate that market participants' understanding of financial markets revolves around seven metaphors, namely the market as a bazaar, as a machine, as gambling, as sports, as war, as a living being and as an ocean. Each of these metaphors highlights and conceals certain aspects of the foreign exchange market and entails a different set of implications on crucial market dimensions, such as the role of other market participants and market predictability. A correspondence analysis supports our assumption that metaphorical thinking corresponds with implicit assumptions about market predictability. A comparison of deliberately generated and implicitly used metaphors reveals notable differences. In particular, implicit metaphors are predominantly organic rather than mechanical. In contrast to academic models, interactive and organic metaphors, and not the machine metaphor, dominate the market accounts of participants.

The leap from ROI to SROI: Farther than expected?

PubMed

Gargani, John

2017-10-01

Social return on investment (SROI) is a popular method for evaluating the impact that organizations have on society and the environment. It has its roots in finance, where return on investment (ROI) is used to evaluate investments. Over the past ten years, SROI has made the leap from a tool for building private wealth to one that advances the public good. Has it landed us in a better place? To answer the question, I describe the general approach to financial analysis, how it is applied to financial decisions, and how it has been adapted to evaluate impact. I then consider the strengths and weaknesses of SROI, and suggest how, by pushing beyond the constraints of financial analysis, it can give stakeholders voice and provide evidence of success from diverse perspectives. Along the way, I propose a conceptual model for value, a foundational concept in SROI that has been criticized by some as underdeveloped, and I include a technical appendix that identifies potential sources of statistical bias in SROI estimates. I conclude by acknowledging our growing need to incorporate efficiency as one of multiple success criteria and the role that SROI-properly implemented-can play. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financial and workflow analysis of radiology reporting processes in the planning phase of implementation of a speech recognition system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whang, Tom; Ratib, Osman M.; Umamoto, Kathleen; Grant, Edward G.; McCoy, Michael J.

2002-05-01

The goal of this study is to determine the financial value and workflow improvements achievable by replacing traditional transcription services with a speech recognition system in a large, university hospital setting. Workflow metrics were measured at two hospitals, one of which exclusively uses a transcription service (UCLA Medical Center), and the other which exclusively uses speech recognition (West Los Angeles VA Hospital). Workflow metrics include time spent per report (the sum of time spent interpreting, dictating, reviewing, and editing), transcription turnaround, and total report turnaround. Compared to traditional transcription, speech recognition resulted in radiologists spending 13-32% more time per report, but it also resulted in reduction of report turnaround time by 22-62% and reduction of marginal cost per report by 94%. The model developed here helps justify the introduction of a speech recognition system by showing that the benefits of reduced operating costs and decreased turnaround time outweigh the cost of increased time spent per report. Whether the ultimate goal is to achieve a financial objective or to improve operational efficiency, it is important to conduct a thorough analysis of workflow before implementation.

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

The effects of multi-disciplinary psycho-social care on socio-economic problems in cancer patients: a cluster-randomized trial.

PubMed

Singer, Susanne; Roick, Julia; Meixensberger, Jürgen; Schiefke, Franziska; Briest, Susanne; Dietz, Andreas; Papsdorf, Kirsten; Mössner, Joachim; Berg, Thomas; Stolzenburg, Jens-Uwe; Niederwieser, Dietger; Keller, Annette; Kersting, Anette; Danker, Helge

2018-06-01

We examined whether multi-disciplinary stepped psycho-social care decreases financial problems and improves return-to-work in cancer patients. In a university hospital, wards were randomly allocated to either stepped or standard care. Stepped care comprised screening for financial problems, consultation between doctor and patient, and the provision of social service. Outcomes were financial problems at the time of discharge and return-to-work in patients < 65 years old half a year after baseline. The analysis employed mixed-effect multivariate regression modeling. Thirteen wards were randomized and 1012 patients participated (n = 570 in stepped care and n = 442 in standard care). Those who reported financial problems at baseline were less likely to have financial problems at discharge when they had received stepped care (odds ratio (OR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1, 0.7; p = 0.01). There was no evidence for an effect of stepped care on financial problems in patients without such problems at baseline (OR 1.1, CI 0.5, 2.6; p = 0.82). There were 399 patients < 65 years old who were not retired at baseline. In this group, there was no evidence for an effect of stepped care on being employed half a year after baseline (OR 0.7, CI 0.3, 2.0; p = 0.52). NCT01859429 CONCLUSIONS: Financial problems can be avoided more effectively with multi-disciplinary stepped psycho-social care than with standard care in patients who have such problems.

Robust linear discriminant models to solve financial crisis in banking sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yai-Fung; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Idris, Faoziah; Ali, Hazlina; Omar, Zurni

2014-12-01

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a widely-used technique in patterns classification via an equation which will minimize the probability of misclassifying cases into their respective categories. However, the performance of classical estimators in LDA highly depends on the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity. Several robust estimators in LDA such as Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD), S-estimators and Minimum Volume Ellipsoid (MVE) are addressed by many authors to alleviate the problem of non-robustness of the classical estimates. In this paper, we investigate on the financial crisis of the Malaysian banking institutions using robust LDA and classical LDA methods. Our objective is to distinguish the "distress" and "non-distress" banks in Malaysia by using the LDA models. Hit ratio is used to validate the accuracy predictive of LDA models. The performance of LDA is evaluated by estimating the misclassification rate via apparent error rate. The results and comparisons show that the robust estimators provide a better performance than the classical estimators for LDA.

Market-implied spread for earthquake CAT bonds: financial implications of engineering decisions.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Ivan; Aslan, Zafer; Mander, John

2010-12-01

In the event of natural and man-made disasters, owners of large-scale infrastructure facilities (assets) need contingency plans to effectively restore the operations within the acceptable timescales. Traditionally, the insurance sector provides the coverage against potential losses. However, there are many problems associated with this traditional approach to risk transfer including counterparty risk and litigation. Recently, a number of innovative risk mitigation methods, termed alternative risk transfer (ART) methods, have been introduced to address these problems. One of the most important ART methods is catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The objective of this article is to develop an integrative model that links engineering design parameters with financial indicators including spread and bond rating. The developed framework is based on a four-step structural loss model and transformed survival model to determine expected excess returns. We illustrate the framework for a seismically designed bridge using two unique CAT bond contracts. The results show a nonlinear relationship between engineering design parameters and market-implied spread. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Value of Information for Populations in Varying Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivoire, Olivier; Leibler, Stanislas

2011-04-01

The notion of information pervades informal descriptions of biological systems, but formal treatments face the problem of defining a quantitative measure of information rooted in a concept of fitness, which is itself an elusive notion. Here, we present a model of population dynamics where this problem is amenable to a mathematical analysis. In the limit where any information about future environmental variations is common to the members of the population, our model is equivalent to known models of financial investment. In this case, the population can be interpreted as a portfolio of financial assets and previous analyses have shown that a key quantity of Shannon's communication theory, the mutual information, sets a fundamental limit on the value of information. We show that this bound can be violated when accounting for features that are irrelevant in finance but inherent to biological systems, such as the stochasticity present at the individual level. This leads us to generalize the measures of uncertainty and information usually encountered in information theory.

Productivity Analysis of Public and Private Airports: A Causal Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasigh, Bijan; Gorjidooz, Javad

2007-01-01

Around the world, airports are being viewed as enterprises, rather than public services, which are expected to be managed efficiently and provide passengers with courteous customer services. Governments are, increasingly, turning to the private sectors for their efficiency in managing the operation, financing, and development, as well as providing security for airports. Operational and financial performance evaluation has become increasingly important to airport operators due to recent trends in airport privatization. Assessing performance allows the airport operators to plan for human resources and capital investment as efficiently as possible. Productivity measurements may be used as comparisons and guidelines in strategic planning, in the internal analysis of operational efficiency and effectiveness, and in assessing the competitive position of an airport in transportation industry. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the operational and financial efficiencies of 22 major airports in the United States and Europe. These airports are divided into three groups based on private ownership (7 British Airport Authority airports), public ownership (8 major United States airports), and a mix of private and public ownership (7 major European Union airports. The detail ownership structures of these airports are presented in Appendix A. Total factor productivity (TFP) model was utilized to measure airport performance in terms of financial and operational efficiencies and to develop a benchmarking tool to identify the areas of strength and weakness. A regression model was then employed to measure the relationship between TFP and ownership structure. Finally a Granger causality test was performed to determine whether ownership structure is a Granger cause of TFP. The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that there is not a significant relationship between airport TFP and ownership structure. Airport productivity and efficiency is, however dependent upon the level of competition, choice of the market, and regulatory control.

A Culture-Sensitive Agent in Kirman's Ant Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shu-Heng; Liou, Wen-Ching; Chen, Ting-Yu

The global financial crisis brought a serious collapse involving a "systemic" meltdown. Internet technology and globalization have increased the chances for interaction between countries and people. The global economy has become more complex than ever before. Mark Buchanan [12] indicated that agent-based computer models will prevent another financial crisis and has been particularly influential in contributing insights. There are two reasons why culture-sensitive agent on the financial market has become so important. Therefore, the aim of this article is to establish a culture-sensitive agent and forecast the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. We based our study on the Kirman's Ant Model[4,5] and Hofstede's Natational Culture[11] to establish our culture-sensitive agent based model. Kirman's Ant Model is quite famous and describes financial market herding behavior from the expectations of the future of financial investors. Hofstede's cultural consequence used the staff of IBM in 72 different countries to understand the cultural difference. As a result, this paper focuses on one of the five dimensions of culture from Hofstede: individualism versus collectivism and creates a culture-sensitive agent and predicts the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. To conclude, this study will be of importance in explaining the herding behavior with cultural factors, as well as in providing researchers with a clearer understanding of how herding beliefs of people about different cultures relate to their finance market strategies.

Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in pricing electricity financial instruments such as electricity forwards, options and cross-commodity derivatives. It is also essential for the analysis of financial risk management, asset valuation, and project financing. In the setting of diffusion processes with multiple types of jumps, I examine three mean-reversion models for modeling the electricity spot prices. I impose some structure on the coefficients of the diffusion processes, which allows me to easily compute the prices of contingent claims (or, financial instruments) on electricity by Fourier methods. I derive the pricing formulas for various electricity derivatives and examine how the prices vary with different modeling assumptions. I demonstrate a couple of risk management applications of the electricity financial instruments. I also construct a real options approach to value electric power generation and transmission assets both with and without accounting for the operating characteristics of the assets. The implications of the mean-reversion jump-diffusion models on financial risk management and real asset valuation in competitive electricity markets are illustrated. With a discrete trinomial lattice modeling the underlying commodity prices, I estimate the effects of operational characteristics on the asset valuation by means of numerical examples that incorporate these aspects using stochastic dynamic programming. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Improving Financial Awareness among College Students: Assessment of a Financial Management Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Lance; Bliss, Donna L.; Goetz, Joseph W.; Moorman, Diann

2010-01-01

The effect of a financial management intervention on college students' financial behavior was examined. The intervention strategy, a form of expenditure tracking, focused on consciousness-raising and was implemented among 170 undergraduate students. Qualitative analysis of participants' self-reflection papers revealed that awareness of spending…

Determining business models for financial sustainability in regional health information organizations (RHIOs): a review.

PubMed

Maffei, Roxana; Burciago, Daniel; Dunn, Kim

2009-10-01

Regional health information organizations (RHIOs) have the potential to alleviate today's health care problems by granting providers access to a supported body of clinical information for all patients in a given region. While the promise of and enthusiasm for RHIOs is immense, the issue of their financial sustainability remains unclear. It has been said that the business model supporting a regional or national health information network is as essential, if not more essential, than the technology that makes it feasible. Currently, there is a clear lack of concrete business models implemented in RHIOs' projects. This article reports the results of a literature review of the current status of the adaptation and implementation of business models by RHIOs for successful financial sustainability. Based on the review, this article also attempts to evaluate the existing financial situation of RHIOs to determine and recommend the best models of economic sustainability. Significant findings include RHIOs' present financial environment, planning, and self-sustainability methods. Future studies will be needed as RHIOs continue to grow and move toward the implementation phase of their development.

Two Essays in Financial Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putnam, Kyle J.

The following dissertation contains two distinct empirical essays which contribute to the overall field of Financial Economics. Chapter 1, entitled "The Determinants of Dynamic Dependence: An Analysis of Commodity Futures and Equity Markets," examines the determinants of the dynamic equity-commodity return correlations between five commodity futures sub-sectors (energy, foods and fibers, grains and oilseeds, livestock, and precious metals) and a value-weighted equity market index (S&P 500). The study utilizes the traditional DCC model, as well as three time-varying copulas: (i) the normal copula, (ii) the student's t copula, and (iii) the rotated-gumbel copula as dependence measures. Subsequently, the determinants of these various dependence measures are explored by analyzing several macroeconomic, financial, and speculation variables over different sample periods. Results indicate that the dynamic equity-commodity correlations for the energy, grains and oilseeds, precious metals, and to a lesser extent the foods and fibers, sub-sectors have become increasingly explainable by broad macroeconomic and financial market indicators, particularly after May 2003. Furthermore, these variables exhibit heterogeneous effects in terms of both magnitude and sign on each sub-sectors' equity-commodity correlation structure. Interestingly, the effects of increased financial market speculation are found to be extremely varied among the five sub-sectors. These results have important implications for portfolio selection, price formation, and risk management. Chapter 2, entitled, "US Community Bank Failure: An Empirical Investigation," examines the declining, but still pivotal role, of the US community banking industry. The study utilizes survival analysis to determine which accounting and macroeconomic variables help to predict community bank failure. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Federal Reserve Bank data are utilized to compare 452 community banks which failed between 2000 and 2013, relative to a sample of surviving community banks. Empirical results indicate that smaller banks are less likely to fail than their larger community bank counterparts. Additionally, several unique bank-specific indicators of failure emerge which relate to asset quality and liquidity, as well as earnings ratios. Moreover, results show that the use of the macroeconomic indicator of liquidity, the TED spread, provides a substantial improvement in modeling predictive community bank failure.

Scaling analysis of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, Luping; Shang, Pengjian

2014-06-01

In this paper, we apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), local scaling detrended fluctuation analysis (LSDFA), and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate correlations of several stock markets. DFA method is for the detection of long-range correlations used in time series. LSDFA method is to show more local properties by using local scale exponents. DCCA method is a developed method to quantify the cross-correlation of two non-stationary time series. We report the results of auto-correlation and cross-correlation behaviors in three western countries and three Chinese stock markets in periods 2004-2006 (before the global financial crisis), 2007-2009 (during the global financial crisis), and 2010-2012 (after the global financial crisis) by using DFA, LSDFA, and DCCA method. The findings are that correlations of stocks are influenced by the economic systems of different countries and the financial crisis. The results indicate that there are stronger auto-correlations in Chinese stocks than western stocks in any period and stronger auto-correlations after the global financial crisis for every stock except Shen Cheng; The LSDFA shows more comprehensive and detailed features than traditional DFA method and the integration of China and the world in economy after the global financial crisis; When it turns to cross-correlations, it shows different properties for six stock markets, while for three Chinese stocks, it reaches the weakest cross-correlations during the global financial crisis.

Forecasting Financial Priorities for Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ringle, Martin D.

1997-01-01

Argues that, with technology costs and revenue opportunities changing rapidly, colleges' future financial strategies concerning technology will have to be more agile and adaptable than ever. Presents financial models from 20 independent colleges and universities, and discusses how they have been used to define a financial strategy for technology…

Financial conflicts of interest and conclusions about neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza: an analysis of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Dunn, Adam G; Arachi, Diana; Hudgins, Joel; Tsafnat, Guy; Coiera, Enrico; Bourgeois, Florence T

2014-10-07

Industry funding and financial conflicts of interest may contribute to bias in the synthesis and interpretation of scientific evidence. To examine the association between financial conflicts of interest and characteristics of systematic reviews of neuraminidase inhibitors. Retrospective analysis. Reviews that examined the use of neuraminidase inhibitors in the prophylaxis or treatment of influenza, were published between January 2005 and May 2014, and used a systematic search protocol. Two investigators blinded to all information regarding the review authors independently assessed the presentation of evidence on the use of neuraminidase inhibitors as favorable or not favorable. Financial conflicts of interest were identified using the index reviews, other publications, and Web-based searches. Associations between financial conflicts of interest, favorability assessments, and presence of critical appraisals of evidence quality were analyzed. Twenty-six systematic reviews were identified, of which 13 examined prophylaxis and 24 examined treatment, accounting for 37 distinct assessments. Among assessments associated with a financial conflict of interest, 7 of 8 (88%) were classified as favorable, compared with 5 of 29 (17%) among those without a financial conflict of interest. Reviewers without financial conflicts of interest were more likely to include statements about the quality of the primary studies than those with financial conflicts of interest. The heterogeneity in populations and outcomes examined in the reviews precluded analysis of the contribution of selective inclusion of evidence on the discordance of the assessments made in the reviews. Many of the systematic reviews had overlapping authorship. Reviewers with financial conflicts of interest may be more likely to present evidence about neuraminidase inhibitors in a favorable manner and recommend the use of these drugs than reviewers without financial conflicts of interest. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

[Sanitation of the health service centre in Warsaw (Samodzielny Zespół Publicznych Zakładów Lecznictwa Otwartego Warszawa-Mokotów). Financial and economic analysis].

PubMed

Buczak-Stec, Elzbieta

2010-01-01

The aim of the financial and economic analysis, conducted in March 2010, was to identify all significant factors that had a positive influence on the restructuring process in the health service centre (Samodzielny Zespół Publicznych Zakładów Lecznictwa Otwartego Warszawa--Mokotów) in Warsaw. Within the framework of the analysis, financial data form time period 1999-2009 were analyzed. Also the managing director and financial director were interviewed. Taking into consideration research results it can be stated that not a single factor but a collection of the purposeful efforts influenced the improvement of the health service centre condition. Apart from received public help, the most significant factors include: rational restructuring process, managing of personnel development, professionally managed financial department, cooperation between departments, good internal communication and use of modern management techniques.

An Institutional Model of Organizational Practice: Financial Reporting at the Fortune 200.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mezias, Stephen J.

1990-01-01

Compares applied economic models and an institutional model in an empirical study of financial reporting practice at the Fortune 200 between 1962 and 1984. Findings indicate that the institutional model adds significant explanatory power over and above the models currently dominating the applied economics literature. Includes 47 references. (MLH)

12 CFR 1016.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 1016.2 Section 1016.2 Banks and Banking BUREAU OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION (REGULATION P) § 1016.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form. Use of the model...

12 CFR 1016.2 - Model privacy form and examples.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Model privacy form and examples. 1016.2 Section 1016.2 Banks and Banking BUREAU OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION (REGULATION P) § 1016.2 Model privacy form and examples. (a) Model privacy form. Use of the model...